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MONETARY POLICY AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 15, 2017 Printed for the use of the Committee on Financial Services Serial No. 115–1 ( U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE WASHINGTON 27–200 PDF : 2018 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI HOUSE COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES JEB HENSARLING, Texas, Chairman PATRICK T. MCHENRY, North Carolina, Vice Chairman PETER T. KING, New York EDWARD R. ROYCE, California FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma STEVAN PEARCE, New Mexico BILL POSEY, Florida BLAINE LUETKEMEYER, Missouri BILL HUIZENGA, Michigan SEAN P. DUFFY, Wisconsin STEVE STIVERS, Ohio RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois DENNIS A. ROSS, Florida ROBERT PITTENGER, North Carolina ANN WAGNER, Missouri ANDY BARR, Kentucky KEITH J. ROTHFUS, Pennsylvania LUKE MESSER, Indiana SCOTT TIPTON, Colorado ROGER WILLIAMS, Texas BRUCE POLIQUIN, Maine MIA LOVE, Utah FRENCH HILL, Arkansas TOM EMMER, Minnesota LEE M. ZELDIN, New York DAVID A. TROTT, Michigan BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia ALEXANDER X. MOONEY, West Virginia THOMAS MacARTHUR, New Jersey WARREN DAVIDSON, Ohio TED BUDD, North Carolina DAVID KUSTOFF, Tennessee CLAUDIA TENNEY, New York TREY HOLLINGSWORTH, Indiana MAXINE WATERS, California, Ranking Member CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York NYDIA M. VELÁZQUEZ, New York BRAD SHERMAN, California GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York MICHAEL E. CAPUANO, Massachusetts WM. LACY CLAY, Missouri STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts DAVID SCOTT, Georgia AL GREEN, Texas EMANUEL CLEAVER, Missouri GWEN MOORE, Wisconsin KEITH ELLISON, Minnesota ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado JAMES A. HIMES, Connecticut BILL FOSTER, Illinois DANIEL T. KILDEE, Michigan JOHN K. DELANEY, Maryland KYRSTEN SINEMA, Arizona JOYCE BEATTY, Ohio DENNY HECK, Washington JUAN VARGAS, California JOSH GOTTHEIMER, New Jersey VICENTE GONZALEZ, Texas CHARLIE CRIST, Florida RUBEN KIHUEN, Nevada KIRSTEN SUTTON MORK, Staff Director (II) VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI CONTENTS Page Hearing held on: February 15, 2017 ............................................................................................ Appendix: February 15, 2017 ............................................................................................ 1 67 WITNESSES WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2017 Yellen, Hon. Janet L., Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ................................................................................................................... 5 APPENDIX Prepared statements: Yellen, Hon. Janet L. ....................................................................................... ADDITIONAL MATERIAL SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Yellen, Hon. Janet L.: Monetary Policy Report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, dated February 14, 2017 ................................................................ Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representative Emmer .................................................................................................... Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representative Hill .......................................................................................................... Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representative Hultgren ................................................................................................. Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representative Loudermilk ............................................................................................. Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representative Luetkemeyer .......................................................................................... Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representative Moore ...................................................................................................... Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representative Sherman ................................................................................................. (III) VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 68 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 74 123 127 128 134 136 137 140 VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI MONETARY POLICY AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY Wednesday, February 15, 2017 U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES, Washington, D.C. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:02 a.m., in room 2128, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Jeb Hensarling [chairman of the committee] presiding. Members present: Representatives Hensarling, McHenry, King, Royce, Lucas, Pearce, Posey, Luetkemeyer, Huizenga, Duffy, Hultgren, Ross, Pittenger, Wagner, Barr, Rothfus, Messer, Tipton, Williams, Poliquin, Love, Hill, Emmer, Zeldin, Trott, Loudermilk, Mooney, MacArthur, Davidson, Budd, Kustoff, Tenney, Hollingsworth; Waters, Maloney, Sherman, Meeks, Capuano, Clay, Lynch, Scott, Green, Cleaver, Perlmutter, Himes, Foster, Kildee, Delaney, Sinema, Beatty, Heck, Vargas, Gottheimer, Gonzalez, Crist, and Kihuen. Chairman HENSARLING. The Committee on Financial Services will come to order. Without objection, the Chair is authorized to declare a recess of the committee at any time. Today’s hearing is for the purpose of receiving the semiannual testimony of the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on the conduct of monetary policy and the state of the economy. I now recognize myself for 3 minutes to give an opening statement. After 8 years of the largest monetary policy stimulus in our history, and the most unconventional monetary policy in our history, Americans recently received disappointing economic news yet again. It is official: The economy grew at a measly 1.6 percent in 2016 when our historic norm is twice that. That makes 8 years of sub-par growth, 8 years of stagnant paychecks, and 8 years of unreplenished savings. Notwithstanding good intentions at the Fed, and notwithstanding good personnel, after 8 years there is zero evidence that zero interest rates and a bloated Fed balance sheet leads to a healthy economy. What also hasn’t changed in 8 years is that the Fed continues to unlawfully pay above-market interest rates to some of the Nation’s largest banks in order to prop up select credit markets. This very well could be fueling asset bubbles and is certainly harming the ability of market participants to accurately price risks. This (1) VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 2 foray into fiscal policy clearly threatens the Fed’s monetary policy independence, which should be preserved. What also hasn’t changed in 8 years is that on the regulatory side the Fed figuratively, if not literally, is taking up seats in bank boardrooms. This means that unelected Washington bureaucrats can literally direct who gets credit in our society, as opposed to competitive markets. I will continue to say it: We must be vigilant to ensure that our central bankers do not one day become our central planners. Fortunately, there is something big that has changed in the last 8 years, and that is an intervening election, and with it the prospect of three new members of the Board of Governors. The National Federation of Independent Business reports that optimism on Main Street soared in the wake of the election, with the Small Business Optimism Index jumping up to a 12-year high. Likewise, the number of Americans who say the Nation is now on the right track has risen by 15 percent since the election. Clearly, Americans have a newfound expectation that our economy will grow healthier with different policies coming out of Washington. I believe the last 8 years have shown that no amount of monetary policy stimulus can make up for the fiscal policy headwinds of a cumbersome failed regulatory state, an uncompetitive tax code, Obamacare, and the Dodd-Frank Act. All of these must be remedied and changed if we are to have a healthy economy for all and bank bailouts for none. Building that healthier economy for all clearly requires changes at the Fed. We must have a more predictable, disciplined, and transparent monetary policy. The Fed’s so-called data-dependent monetary policy of today says nothing about which data matter, let alone how they matter. This severely compromises the kind of policy transparency and predictability that is necessary for household wealth to grow and American companies to create jobs. Something else that has changed in the last 8 years is the introduction of the reforms included in the Financial Choice Act, which would begin to restore the Fed’s independence and promote economic growth. Several Nobel Prize-winning economists, former Treasury Secretaries, and former senior economic policy officers have said, when they endorsed the Financial Choice Act, that these reforms would ensure a monetary policy framework that is truly data-dependent, consistent, and predictable. The Financial Choice Act will help consumers and investors make better decisions in the present, and form better expectations about the future, and I look forward to its passage. I now recognize the ranking member for 4 minutes for an opening statement. Ms. WATERS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Chair Yellen, for testifying here today. Each day as a new episode of chaos unfolds at the Trump White House, working families across the country are reminded that our hardfought gains to create more than 16 million private sector jobs, lift wages, stabilize the housing market, rein in Wall Street’s abusive VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 3 practices, and make affordable health care accessible are in jeopardy. Mr. Trump has already shown America what he is really all about. He has taken steps to roll back the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law based on the false premise that businesses do not have the ability to get loans, ignoring the National Federation of Independent Businesses survey showing that 96 percent of small businesses said their borrowing needs are satisfied. In addition to rolling back financial protections, Mr. Trump has moved to eliminate safeguards that protect Americans planning for retirement from being ripped off by financial advisers, repealed a plan to cut mortgage insurance premiums that would have saved homeowners $500 a year, called for tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class, vowed to eliminate health insurance for 28 million people, aligned himself with Republican leaders in Congress in cutting Social Security and Medicare, threatened a trade war with two of our largest trading partners, and adopted an anti-immigrant agenda. Taken all together, these policies will shrink our economy, worsen inequality, lift inflation, reduce exports, eliminate jobs, explode Federal budget deficits, and ultimately steer us in the direction of another Great Depression. Simply put, the Trump agenda is bad for America. Chair Yellen, on top of all of this and despite your important contributions to our economic recovery, my Republican colleagues continue to attack your policies, deflecting from their own failure to provide a fiscal stimulus that would have complemented rather than undermined the Fed’s bold efforts in recent years. Now Republicans are doubling down on their efforts to inject partisan politics into Fed decision-making. Indeed, Republicans on this committee have sought to weaken the independence of the Fed and have called for chaining policy decisions to a mathematical formula that would hamper the Fed’s ability to support the economy amid a severe and persistent shock. Their agenda makes you wonder: Do Republicans not remember the 11 million Americans who lost their homes, the $13 trillion taken from the savings of hardworking Americans, the nearly 9 million Americans who lost their jobs, and when the unemployment rate hit 10 percent? While our economy has made significant gains, hardworking American families simply can’t afford another Great Recession. Despite the progress we have made, many communities across America continue to struggle, particularly minority communities, which were disproportionately hit by the crisis. On average, African-American households lost 52 percent of their wealth, Hispanic households lost 66 percent, and White households lost 16 percent. In these tumultuous times and with more progress that must be made for vulnerable communities, your steady leadership and an independent Fed that advocates for the interests of all Americans is now more important than ever. Mr. Chairman, I yield back the balance of my time. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentlelady yields back. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 4 The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Kentucky, Mr. Barr, the chairman of our Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee, for 2 minutes. Mr. BARR. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In November, the American people delivered a loud and clear message that they want major changes in Washington. With Governor Tarullo’s resignation, President Trump will have an opportunity to make major changes at the Fed, filling three vacancies on the Board of Governors, including the Vice Chair for Supervision. Many financial institutions in my district and around the country are concerned that the Fed may cram through a new wave of regulations before these new Governors are confirmed. Given the avalanche of red tape produced by Dodd-Frank, and the disproportionate costs imposed on small community banks, it is imperative that the Federal Reserve refrain from issuing any new regulations until the new Governors are confirmed. New Fed Governors mean a new opportunity to examine the Fed’s unconventional monetary policies. Since the beginning of the recovery in 2009, the Fed’s improvisational policies, including nearzero interest rates, 3 rounds of quantitative easing, and a $4.5 trillion balance sheet, have failed to deliver their predicted result. GDP growth during the Obama Administration averaged a mere 1.8 percent, well below the growth forecast by the Fed and not even close to the 3.5 percent to 4 percent growth average during previous recoveries. The American people are ready for a change—a change from the Fed’s unconventional and unpredictable policies, a change from the Fed’s inaccurate projections of growth, and a change from disappointing economic results. It is time for the Fed to begin prudently shrinking its balance sheet; end its easy-money policies that have fueled government borrowing; and shift to a more firmly grounded, strategy-based policy that will assure price stability, facilitate commerce wherever it shows promise, and create the conditions for strong economic growth. To paraphrase Milton Friedman, it is time we stop assigning to monetary policy a larger role than it can perform, asking it to accomplish tasks that it cannot achieve, and as a result preventing it from making the contribution that it is capable of making. I look forward to your testimony, Chair Yellen, and I thank you for your time. Chairman HENSARLING. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Michigan, Mr. Kildee, for 1 minute. Mr. KILDEE. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and Madam Ranking Member. And welcome, Chair Yellen. The new Administration enters with a tailwind of economic growth at its back. With 83 months of continuous private sector job growth and an unemployment level of 4.8 percent, we do have a strong economic foundation to continue to build upon. So it is important that the growth of the last 8 years is not put at risk through wholesale repeal of the legislative framework that has protected consumers, strengthened the financial system, and helped our economy find its footing after the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00008 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 5 So I look forward to hearing from you about how the Federal Reserve will continue to set monetary policies that will expand our economic progress and allow for growth in areas such as workers’ wages that have been more slow to recover, and in particular to address the uneven nature of growth. The United States still has pockets of poverty in urban and rural communities. I look forward to hearing your comments, and I appreciate your attendance here at the committee. Welcome back. With that, I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentleman yields back. Today, we welcome the testimony of the Honorable Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Chair Yellen has previously testified before this committee on numerous occasions, so I certainly believe she needs no further introduction. Welcome, Madam Chair. Without objection, your written statement will be made a part of the record, and you are now recognized to give an oral presentation of your testimony. STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE JANET L. YELLEN, CHAIR, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Mrs. YELLEN. Thank you. Chairman Hensarling, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress. In my remarks today I will briefly discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy. Since my appearance before the committee last June, the economy has continued to make progress toward our dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability. In the labor market, job gains averaged 190,000 per month over the second half of 2016, and the number of jobs rose an additional 227,000 in January. Those gains bring the total increase in employment since its trough in early 2010 to nearly 16 million. In addition, the unemployment rate, which stood at 4.8 percent in January, is more than 5 percentage points lower than where it stood at its peak in 2010 and is now in line with the median of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ estimates of its longer-run normal level. A broader measure of labor under-utilization, which includes those marginally attached to the labor force and people who are working part time but would like a full-time job, has also continued to improve over the past year. In addition, the pace of wage growth has picked up relative to its pace of a few years ago, a further indication that the job market is tightening. Importantly, improvements in the labor market in recent years have been widespread, with large declines in the unemployment rates for all major demographic groups, including African-Americans and Hispanics. Even so, it is discouraging that the jobless rates for those minorities remain significantly higher than the rate for the Nation overall. Ongoing gains in the labor market have been accompanied by a further moderate expansion in economic activity. U.S. real gross domestic product is estimated to have risen 1.9 percent last year, the same as in 2015. Consumer spending has continued to rise at a healthy pace, supported by steady income gains, increases in the VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00009 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 6 value of households’ financial assets and homes, favorable levels of consumer sentiment, and low interest rates. Last year’s sales of automobiles and light trucks were the highest annual total on record. In contrast, business investment was relatively soft for much of last year, though it posted some larger gains towards the end of the year, in part reflecting an apparent end to the sharp declines in spending on drilling and mining structures. Moreover, business sentiment has notably improved in the past few months. In addition, weak foreign growth and the appreciation of the dollar over the past 2 years have restrained manufacturing output. Meanwhile, housing construction has continued to trend up at only a modest pace in recent quarters. And while the lean stock of homes for sale and ongoing labor market gains should provide some support to housing construction going forward, the recent increases in mortgage rates may impart some restraint. Inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices. Total consumer prices, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index, rose 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in December, still below the FOMC’s 2 percent objective, but up 1 percentage point from its pace in 2015. Core PCE inflation, which excludes the volatile energy and food prices, moved up to about 1.75 percent. My colleagues on the FOMC and I expect the economy to continue to expand at a moderate pace, with the job market strengthening somewhat further and inflation gradually rising to 2 percent. This judgment reflects our view that U.S. monetary policy remains accommodative, and that the pace of global economic activity should pick up over time, supported by accommodative monetary policies abroad. Of course, our inflation outlook also depends importantly on our assessment that longer-term inflation expectations will remain reasonably well-anchored. It is reassuring that while market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low, they have risen from the very low levels they reached during the latter part of 2015 and the first half of 2016. Meanwhile, most survey measures of longer-term inflation expectations have changed little on balance in recent months. As always, considerable uncertainty attends the economic outlook. Among the sources of uncertainty are possible changes in U.S. fiscal and other policies, the future path of productivity growth, and developments abroad. Turning to monetary policy, the FOMC is committed to promoting maximum employment and price stability, as mandated by Congress. Against the backdrop of headwinds weighing on the economy over the past year, including financial market stresses that emanated from developments abroad, the committee maintained an unchanged target range for the Federal funds rate for most of the year in order to support improvement in the labor market and an increase in inflation toward 2 percent. At its December meeting the committee raised the target range for the Federal funds rate by one-quarter percentage point to 0.5 to 0.75 percent. In doing so, the committee recognized the consider- VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00010 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 7 able progress the economy made toward the FOMC’s dual objectives. The committee judged that even after this increase in the Federal funds rate target, monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. At its meeting that concluded early this month, the committee left the target range for the Federal funds rate unchanged but reiterated that it expects the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the Federal funds rate to achieve and maintain its employment and inflation objectives. As I noted on previous occasions, waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession. Incoming data suggest that labor market conditions continue to strengthen and inflation is moving up to 2 percent, consistent with the committee’s expectations. At our upcoming meetings, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the Federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. The committee’s view that gradual increases in the Federal funds rate will likely be appropriate reflects the expectation that the neutral Federal funds rate—that is, the interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and that keeps the economy operating on an even keel—will rise somewhat over time. Current estimates of the neutral rate are well below pre-crisis levels, a phenomenon that may reflect slow productivity growth, subdued economic growth abroad, strong demand for safe longerterm assets, and other factors. The committee anticipates that the depressing effect of these factors will diminish somewhat over time, raising the neutral funds rate, albeit to levels that are still low by historical standards. That said, the economic outlook is uncertain and monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the Federal funds rate in response to changes to the economic outlook and associated risks, as informed by incoming data. Also, changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook. Of course, it is too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold. While it is not my intention to opine on specific tax or spending proposals, I would point to the importance of improving the pace of longer-run economic growth and raising American living standards with policies aimed at improving productivity. I would also hope that fiscal policy changes will be consistent with putting U.S. fiscal accounts on a sustainable trajectory. In any event, it is important to remember that fiscal policy is only one of the many factors that can influence the economic outlook and the appropriate course of monetary policy. Overall, the FOMC’s monetary policy decisions will be directed to the attainment of its congressionally mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00011 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 8 Finally, the committee has continued its policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. This policy, by keeping the committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, has helped maintain accommodative financial conditions. Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions. [The prepared statement of Chair Yellen can be found on page 68 of the appendix.] Chairman HENSARLING. Thank you, Madam Chair. The Chair now yields himself 5 minutes for questions. Madam Chair, as I know you are aware, on February 3rd President Trump issued an Executive Order of core principles to regulate the United States’ financial system. Section one, paragraph C says, ‘‘Foster economic growth and vibrant financial markets through more rigorous regulatory impact analysis.’’ You were quoted yesterday in your Senate testimony saying that you agree with these core principles. Were you quoted accurately? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. I agree with the core principles that the President enunciated. Chairman HENSARLING. As you probably know, to date, DoddFrank has promulgated at least 22,000 pages of regulations as part of its 400 rules, I think only roughly three-quarters of which have been finalized, and certainly the weight and the volume, the complexity and the cost is one of the headwinds that we are facing now. I know that as an independent agency, you are not necessarily subject to the jurisdiction of the Executive Order, but we have had testimony in this committee for years about the challenges of the Volcker Rule and its deleterious impact on market illiquidity. On December 22nd of last year, just weeks ago, the Federal Reserve released a staff paper, an abstract of which says, ‘‘We document that the illiquidity of stress bonds has increased after the Volcker Rule. Since Volcker-affected dealers have been the main liquidity providers, the net effect is that bonds are less liquid during times of stress due to the Volcker Rule.’’ It goes on to say that the Volcker Rule may have serious consequences for corporate bond market functioning in stress times. Do you agree with the staff paper of the Federal Reserve? Mrs. YELLEN. This was the work of a particular staff member and not a finding of the Board as a whole. Chairman HENSARLING. I understand. I am just trying to figure out, do you agree or disagree with these conclusions? Mrs. YELLEN. I think the evidence on this matter is conflicting, and I think this paper did find evidence of an impact in one particular area. This is an important question. It is one we continue to look at. And there are a number of factors— Chairman HENSARLING. You have been looking at it for years, though, haven’t you, Madam Chair? Haven’t you been looking it for years now? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes, we have been— Chairman HENSARLING. Still no conclusion? VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00012 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 9 Mrs. YELLEN. It is difficult to come to a conclusion because by most metrics, liquidity in corporate bond markets still remains healthy, but there is— Chairman HENSARLING. So after a couple of years, not drawing a conclusion yet, I assume that there is no particular action the Board intends to take based upon the evidence of this paper, is that correct? Mrs. YELLEN. There is no action that we intend to take based on that— Chairman HENSARLING. Okay. Madam Chair, in the January 25th edition of The Wall Street Journal, Ms. Nellie Liang, whom I assume you are acquainted with, stepped down as the Director of your Financial Stability Division. In this article, she said that, ‘‘Congress should provide clarity for regulators on how to balance the safety of the financial system with economic growth.’’ Please know that Congress does not believe that you have found the proper balance and that the Volcker Rule is an incredibly important channel to fund jobs in America. Again, I don’t know how much stronger the evidence has to be for the Fed to take action, but please know the proper balance has not been struck. On January 12, 2017, the Financial Stability Board released its policy recommendations to address structural vulnerabilities from asset management activities. Governor Tarullo was quoted as saying the policies ‘‘will better prepare asset managers in funds for future stress events.’’ Many cannot see any association whatsoever with the terms ‘‘systemic risk’’ and ‘‘asset management.’’ So my first question is, are you aware of anybody in the Administration directing either you or Governor Tarullo to negotiate with the Financial Stability Board on asset management regulation? Mrs. YELLEN. It is done in negotiation with the Financial Stability Board. Any regulation that is put into effect in the United States has to go through a rulemaking process. Chairman HENSARLING. I understand that, but the question was, has there been any contact with the new Administration authorizing the Fed to carry on any negotiations with respect to the asset management question with the Financial Stability Board? Mrs. YELLEN. We participate regularly as part of our established responsibilities in discussions with colleagues in the— Chairman HENSARLING. As you know, Governor Tarullo was never confirmed by the Senate. Are you aware of any specific statutory authority he has to negotiate on behalf of the United States on the matter of asset management and systemic risk? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t think it is a negotiation. The SEC is involved; Treasury takes part in those discussions. There are a number of U.S.— Chairman HENSARLING. Do you believe that the new Administration should have the ability to nominate a Vice Chair for Supervision, and if confirmed, that person would be the one to be officially tasked with these duties? Mrs. YELLEN. We look forward to a nomination to the position of Vice Chair for Supervision and— Chairman HENSARLING. Don’t we all, Madam Chair. Don’t we all. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00013 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 10 My time has expired. I now recognize the ranking member for 5 minutes. Ms. WATERS. Thank you very much. Madam Chair, we have frequently heard from members on the opposite side of the aisle that Dodd-Frank has had a significant adverse impact on our economy. To fact-check some of this gloomy rhetoric I ask that you provide some brief responses to the following questions: Since passage of the Wall Street reform law, has business lending by commercial banks expanded or contracted? Mrs. YELLEN. Expanded. Ms. WATERS. Roughly how many private sector jobs have been added to our economy? Mrs. YELLEN. Roughly 16 million since the trough in employment in early 2010. Ms. WATERS. Have wages increased or decreased in the past year? Mrs. YELLEN. They have increased, by most measures. Ms. WATERS. Has the trend in aggregate household net worth been positive or negative? Mrs. YELLEN. Positive. Ms. WATERS. Has the trend in Federal budget deficit risen or fallen over the past few years? Mrs. YELLEN. Deficits have declined since the financial crisis and its aftermath. Ms. WATERS. After the economy hit bottom, have the number of foreclosures increased or decreased in recent years? Mrs. YELLEN. They are, I believe, decreasing now. Ms. WATERS. What, in your view, are the key factors and policies that have contributed to these positive trends in the economy? Mrs. YELLEN. The economy is recovering from a very severe crisis. We have put in place stronger financial regulation that has armed four-star banks to build up their capital buffers to deal with problem loans and to strengthen themselves to the point where they have been able to support economic growth and recovery in our economy. The U.S. economy has recovered more quickly, for example, than the E.U. economies have in the aftermath of the crisis. And the Federal Reserve has put in place highly accommodative monetary policies meant to spur spending in the economy and restore low unemployment or to achieve the goal of maximum employment and price stability that have been assigned to us by Congress. As I indicated in my remarks, I believe we are coming very close to achieving those objectives and that monetary policy still remains accommodative. Ms. WATERS. Thank you. Chair Yellen, as the Nation’s leading economist, can you discuss how unraveling the fabric of our social safety net, such as through cuts to food assistance programs for families in poverty, eliminating access to affordable health care, eliminating the earned income tax credit and the child tax credit, cutting unemployment insurance benefits, and cutting funding for housing assistance programs could impact the short-term and long-term health of our workforce and our economy? Could these types of cuts do permanent damage to our economy’s ability to fulfill its potential? How VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00014 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 11 would cuts to these programs impact inequality and the chance that families have to escape poverty? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t want to give detailed guidance to Congress on these particular programs. But I would say that the trend of rising inequality and the fact that, although low-income households have done well over the last couple of years as the economy has improved relative to before the crisis and even looking back a number of decades, they have clearly faced very severe problems that have left many American households struggling, and these kinds of programs are helpful, I think, in dealing with such distress. Ms. WATERS. Could you just give me a few more minutes on the earned income tax credit? Do you think that is important? Mrs. YELLEN. I think it does serve to support the incomes of many lower-income families. Ms. WATERS. And what about the child tax credit in particular? Mrs. YELLEN. That works in the same direction. Ms. WATERS. So, as you said, you don’t wish to tell Congress what to do, but these programs are important. And would you include in that cutting the unemployment insurance benefits as being beneficial to helping lift families out of poverty? Mrs. YELLEN. I think unemployment insurance benefits are important for families who face real distress in the labor market, and they also serve as automatic stabilizers that support spending in a the downturn and make our economy less subject to the fluctuations of the business cycle. Ms. WATERS. Thank you very much. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentlelady has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Kentucky, Mr. Barr, chairman of our Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee. Mr. BARR. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And, Chair Yellen, welcome back to the committee. This is the first time I have had an opportunity to visit with you as the new chairman of the Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee, and I look forward to visiting with you on a more informal basis to get your thoughts about monetary policy and your supervisory responsibilities. My intention is to be fair-minded in our oversight and also encourage an exchange of differing viewpoints, but we are also going to ask tough questions because the American people do deserve a Federal Reserve System that is transparent, accountable, and predictable. According to your monetary policy report from a couple of years ago, Chair Yellen, the Federal Open Market Committee expected that, ‘‘with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity would expand.’’ The FOMC certainly pursued that accommodative policy, holding the Fed funds rate to near zero for almost a decade and growing the Fed’s balance sheet to one quarter of the size of our economy. You noted in your prepared testimony that labor market conditions are strengthening and that we are moving toward that inflation target of 2 percent. But despite all of the extraordinary measures and the unconventional policies, economic activity has still fallen short of FOMC expectations and has done so throughout the VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00015 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 12 recovery. What does the serial failure of the Fed’s forecasts tell us about the efficacy of Q.E. and the ballooning balance sheet? Mrs. YELLEN. The Congress’ instructions to the Federal Reserve are to try to achieve maximum employment and price stability. We have focused on those objectives—not economic growth per se, but maximum employment. The economic growth performance has been quite disappointing and growth is falling short of our expectations, but unemployment has come down substantially and we are quite close, I would say, to achieving our labor market objectives. Now, the reason for this is that productivity growth in the U.S. economy, which is what really determines in the long run the pace of growth— Mr. BARR. Right. Mrs. YELLEN. —our economy is capable of, has been very disappointing. Mr. BARR. Right. I understand that and I also recognize that we have seen a repetitive failure for—of the Fed to actually achieve the expected growth rates. And really my question that I am getting at is, doesn’t this underscore the failure of unconventional policies to deliver the expected results? And if you are a reasonable person looking at this, wouldn’t a reasonable person say, ‘‘Maybe we shouldn’t be expecting so much from unconventional policies, near zero interest rates, 3 rounds of Q.E., a $4.5 trillion balance sheet?’’ Mrs. YELLEN. My reading would be that putting in place those policies has enabled us to add 16 million jobs to the U.S. economy and— Mr. BARR. And yet, Chair— Mrs. YELLEN. —bring the unemployment rate down to 4.8 percent— Mr. BARR. Sure, and I acknowledge that, and the ranking member made a big point of the declining unemployment rate. But we also have to recognize that almost 15 million people remain unemployed or underemployed 8 years after the recession. The labor participation rate is the lowest it has been since 1978. Mrs. YELLEN. The labor— Mr. BARR. President Obama is the only President in U.S. history since Herbert Hoover to not preside over a single year of 3 percent growth. And median household income remains nearly $1,000 lower than the pre-recession levels. So we have a bit of a different viewpoint on that. And I recognize that you believe that the unconventional strategy has worked. But if it has worked so well, why are we still reinvesting and why are we not shrinking the balance sheet? Mrs. YELLEN. We are beginning to remove monetary policy accommodation and we expect to continue to do so, and we have decided that the best way to do that is by raising overnight interest rates—short-term interest rates—by raising our Federal funds rate target. We are committed to shrinking our balance sheet but consider it best, from the standpoint of sustaining the recovery, to do that in a gradual and orderly way. Mr. BARR. And I respect that, given the taper tantrum, and I recognize that viewpoint. But yesterday in the Senate Banking Com- VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00016 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 13 mittee you said you wouldn’t start to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet until the Fed funds rate was high enough that it could be reduced again in the event of economic turbulence. What is high enough? Mrs. YELLEN. It depends. There is no unique level that is high enough. It depends on the strength of the recovery and how robust it is, how worried we are about downside risk to the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee in our coming meetings will be discussing reinvestment policy in greater detail, and I hope to be able to provide— Mr. BARR. Thank you, Chair Yellen. I look forward to continuing to discuss that discretionary policy and the uncertainty it is creating. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from California, Mr. Sherman. Mr. SHERMAN. Mr. Chairman, we have had the—obviously I did not intend my picture to be up there on the board. My staff has— I will ask them to take this down. This is a beta version and we will go back to the—okay. I have always envied the Majority with their national debt clock. The gentleman from Kentucky tells us that he wants to blame the Fed for low interest rates, and that is why we have a national debt. We all know that the amount of the deficit is set by the spending. That is in Congress. It is set by the taxes. That is set by Congress. And in a pitiful attempt to deflect responsibility for the fact that we have a large national debt, we are told that the blame goes to the Fed because you haven’t charged us enough for the cost of borrowing. The national debt would be even higher if our interest rates were higher and if our cost of financing the national debt were higher. We are also told to blame President Obama for the fact that the catastrophe he inherited has not been rebounded enough. That is like blaming the firefighter for the fact that there was a fire. He found this country in freefall, we are now on the upswing, and those who were here at the time that the policies were set that created the freefall are saying, ‘‘Well, why isn’t the upswing bigger?’’ Finally, thank you for your large balance sheet. That creates a huge profit. That money goes to the general fund. So your low interest rates and your huge balance sheet are keeping that national debt clock that the Majority puts up from turning much, much faster. Now, I do want—at the next meeting we will have the technology done properly. We will have the national trade deficit clock. It stands at over $11 trillion of accumulated trade debt since 1980, and that is including both goods and services. It would be higher if we just looked at goods. That clock is often turning faster and that clock is as a result of the terrible trade policies that have been embraced by both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue from time to time. Eric Holder pointed out that he hesitated to engage in criminal prosecutions of the biggest banks because they were so large that he feared for the effect on the national economy. You have been here before and I have urged you to break up the too-big-to-fail in- VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00017 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 14 stitutions. You have said you are going to achieve those goals through another means. So can you assure the current attorney general that we can enforce the criminal law fairly, we can let the chips fall where they may, and the economy will be just fine no matter how big the institution that faces criminal prosecution and no matter how big the figures are who are put in jail? Can you tell us that as of today, no one is too-big-to-jail? Mrs. YELLEN. Certainly, I agree that the Justice Department should pursue any criminal indictments— Mr. SHERMAN. Would the downfall of any one or two institutions have an adverse effect on our economy that should give a reasonable attorney general some pause before taking action? Mrs. YELLEN. Through the process that we have put in place, the living will process, the strengthening of the capital and liquidity positions of the largest firms— Mr. SHERMAN. Yes or no? Can we feel free to engage in criminal prosecutions of even the largest one or two institutions without an adverse economic effect? Yes or no? Mrs. YELLEN. I believe there is a very reasonable chance we would be able to— Mr. SHERMAN. One last question. The battle in Dodd-Frank is basically a battle to reduce the amount of capital that the big banks have to face. The Wall Street Journal reported that if we got rid of it or moved against it, that would liberate about $100 billion that the banks could pay out in dividends or share buybacks. Would it increase or decrease the risk that a giant institution would need a bailout if we told them that they should have less capital on hand and were free to take some of the capital they have and pay it out in dividends now? Mrs. YELLEN. We believe very strongly in high capital levels, especially for the largest and most systemic institutions, and we think it will support their ability to supply credit to U.S. households and businesses even in a very adverse scenario. It strengthens their resilience and vastly reduce their odds of failing. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from New Mexico, Mr. Pearce, chairman of our Terrorism and Illicit Finance Subcommittee. Mr. PEARCE. Welcome, Chair Yellen. Thanks for being here. I always appreciate your viewpoints. Now, as I read your report that you just gave to us, on page one you are talking about the progress towards maximum employment. And so you give—I am just trying to get the flow in my mind here correctly. So you have made progress and then later, you say that the FOMC believes that unemployment is pretty well at its normal level, that is, it is where it needs to be. Labor under-utilization is a little bit of a concern but it is kind a marginal concern, that it is these pockets of maybe minorities or things. Is that more or less kind of the summary? Am I reading your report correctly? Mrs. YELLEN. We think that the economy is— Mr. PEARCE. No. I didn’t ask about the economy. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00018 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 15 Mrs. YELLEN. The labor market— Mr. PEARCE. I was talking the labor force and— Mrs. YELLEN. —is— Mr. PEARCE. —employment and the unemployment seems to be where you think it ought to be. Mrs. YELLEN. Essentially. There are— Mr. PEARCE. Essentially, okay. Mrs. YELLEN. As you said and as we say in the report, there are pockets of— Mr. PEARCE. Yes. I understand, but basically you are giving a fairly glowing, stable report. Okay. Mrs. YELLEN. Well— Mr. PEARCE. Now, my point— Mrs. YELLEN. But let me be clear, I am not saying that all workers or all individuals— Mr. PEARCE. You give those reservations there. We have pockets. We have seen large declines in employment for major demographic groups, but we have discouraging jobless highs for minorities. I give you your balancing statements there. My point is that this stable position that you have established, that we have done pretty well, then we have some pockets that we need to improve on, is highly discouraging because 4 out of 10 people who could be in the workforce are not. And for the 60 percent who are, it tells us that the highest economic body in the country says it is okay that you 40 percent are not there, that we don’t draw attention to the 62 percent labor force participation rate. It is just ignored and things are fairly stable according to your report and according to our questions. Yesterday, a New York Times article stated that—and I am trying to get at this if it is accurate—Mrs. Yellen and other Fed officials have suggested that the central bank would seek to offset such measures—that is, Mr. Trump calling for stimulating economic growth through tax cuts—but that you would seek to offset that because the Fed judges the economy to be growing at roughly the maximum sustainable pace already. Is that accurate news? Is that accurate, that you believe that we are pretty close to the maximum sustainable pace already? Mrs. YELLEN. I have urged Congress and the Administration to focus on measures that would raise the potential of the economy to grow, that would increase productivity growth and the capacity— Mr. PEARCE. So this statement in the New York Times is incorrect— Mrs. YELLEN. It is not— Mr. PEARCE. —that you all do not believe—you do not— Mrs. YELLEN. It is not quite accurate and I don’t believe that accurately reflects my words. Mr. PEARCE. So this would be some of the fake news coming out from the New York Times yesterday. Mrs. YELLEN. I think that there are policy measures that Congress and the Administration could consider— Mr. PEARCE. Okay. Mrs. YELLEN. —that would boost the capacity of the U.S. economy— VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00019 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 16 Mr. PEARCE. So is there a maximum rate at which you all do become concerned about economic growth? Mrs. YELLEN. I think faster economic growth, if it is supported by either faster labor force growth or productivity growth— Mr. PEARCE. The question is, is there a maximum? I am kind of running out of time. Is there a position at which the Fed gets uncomfortable with economic growth? Is there a number at which you get uncomfortable? If it goes to 7.4 percent you are going to be okay with that? Mrs. YELLEN. No. I think we would like to see fast growth, but we do have to control price inflation— Mr. PEARCE. You would do things, then, to offset—this idea that you would offset fast economic growth, then that has an element of truth to it? Mrs. YELLEN. Only if we think that it is demand-based and threatens our inflation objective— Mr. PEARCE. Yes. So let me wrap up here if I can— Mrs. YELLEN. —has assigned to us. Mr. PEARCE. Let me wrap up here, because when I look at employment figures and 16 million, it indicates that all jobs are created equal. And frankly, a retail job is not going to pay as well as a refinery job. And when the President is talking about expanding the economy and I see comments that indicate you all from the Fed might do things to sidetrack that growth rate when he is going to increase infrastructure and the $60,000 a year jobs, I worry about that. I worry about it being considered that small business growth is not as good as or maybe it is even equivalent as the economic growth by international corporations. So again, I worry when I see these things. I yield back the balance of my time, Mr. Chairman. Thank you. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from New York, Mr. Meeks. Mr. MEEKS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Madam Chair, it is good to see you. And I can’t believe my ears as I stand here, or sit here, because I guess I am hearing revisionist history, and I wonder about my colleagues who claim that they are worried now. But if I recall correctly—and I think I do because I got elected in 1998, I came here in 2000—at that time we were talking about balanced budgets and a moving economy. And in the 2000 election, we had a Republican Majority in the House, a Republican Majority in the Senate, and a Republican President, similar to what we have right now. And as I recall, during that period of time all of a sudden we were not talking about balanced budgets anymore, we were talking about rising deficits. Democrats clearly had nothing to do with that because we had no control over anything, as it is right now. And we moved forward and we ended up in the greatest recession since the Great Depression. The fact of the matter is—and these are not alternative facts— that when Barack Obama became President of the United States of America, we were losing. You talk about slow growth—I figure, VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00020 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 17 you can correct me if I am wrong—we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month, not gaining anything. Not because of Democrats. Barack Obama wasn’t the President. So he inherited a economy that was falling. I can remember the Secretary of the Treasury coming over to the House begging Democrats to do something at the time because even the Republicans wouldn’t do anything, asking for our help to get something passed to save this economy. That is not revisionist history; those are facts that took place. And under Barack Obama we have made tremendous progress from where we were. To the fact that as opposed to losing jobs, as we were beforehand, I think you testified we have now gained over 16 million jobs. I think that should be something that all of us as Americans should be applauding and not criticizing because we have come a mighty long way from an economy that was in the tank. And we had to do certain things because we didn’t want to get back there ever again. We wanted to make sure that we didn’t put the American people, the workers—whether you are Democrat, whether you are Republican, whether you are independent, whether you are Black, whether you are White, whether you are Hispanic—we didn’t want people to be put in that position again. So we had to come up with some new laws. One of them was called Dodd-Frank. And as a result of DoddFrank, we saw some stabilization in institutions and we began to move forward and we began to create jobs again. And here we are now creating some of the same kind of uncertainty. So let me just ask a question because I believe—I don’t know, maybe I am wrong, but I think that in the Fed’s monetary policy report you did with that, uncertainty hurts you with your report as well as it affects employers and business owners. And when you have uncertainty, whether or not it is dealing with immigration, whether or not it is dealing with trade, whether or not it is dealing with regulatory policy, that causes problems in the economy. Is that not correct? Mrs. YELLEN. It can be. That is for many years a problem that businesses have cited that has made them reluctant to make commitments. It is hard to quantify just how important that is. Mr. MEEKS. One of the things that I do know is that over the last 14 days, we certainly have had not anything certain with this current Administration. In fact, every day that we wake up it is something new and uncertain dealing with this Administration. Every day. Every day. I don’t know one day when we have not woken up and looked and read the papers or looked at the television or something and it has been something new. Now, there have been some excuses—but the fact of the matter is we have had anything but certainty for the last 14 days in the United States of America. We have had none, and that thereby will have an effect overall on the average everyday worker in the United States of America, our businesses, our small businesses, our banks, our regulations, and even, in fact, our credibility. Because guess what? In the current Administration they don’t even trust one another. We have a situation where the Vice Presi- VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00021 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 18 dent doesn’t trust this one, and the President has already said, ‘‘It is a matter of trust; I have to get rid of this one or that one.’’ And then you have the situation where one person comes in and says, ‘‘Oh look, the President didn’t do this; the person resigned by themselves.’’ Then the next hour someone says, ‘‘Oh, the President fired them.’’ Uncertainty. Our country is in an uncertain position right now, which will affect our economy and, unfortunately, the gains that we have made. So I am hoping that there is something that changes immediately so the gains that we have made over the last 8 years, we don’t go back to where we were, where we were losing 780,000 jobs. My time is up and I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from North Carolina, Mr. McHenry, vice chairman of the committee. Mr. MCHENRY. Chair Yellen, thank you so much for being here today. I support the Federal Reserve’s function as an independent policymaker when it comes to our monetary policy. I think an independent Federal Reserve, for the purposes of monetary policies, is very important. You are also a regulator. And as I have asked you before, that is really what I am interested in what you do in terms of regulation. And so let me just ask, do you think it is appropriate for Congress to have oversight of the Federal Reserve’s rulemaking and regulatory policies? Mrs. YELLEN. Of course. Mr. MCHENRY. Okay. That is good. So do you think Congress should have oversight over the Federal Reserve’s regulatory discussions with international bodies, as well? Mrs. YELLEN. Congress has assigned the various regulatory agencies responsibilities, and in carrying those out— Mr. MCHENRY. And I am asking you as a— Mrs. YELLEN. —we have, and I believe should have, discussions with our international colleagues. Mr. MCHENRY. I will get to that question. I certainly understand that because Congress has given you this authority and given you this directive, should Congress not also have oversight over that authority in which we have given you? Mrs. YELLEN. Congress of course has oversight over our conduct. Mr. MCHENRY. So you agree that both domestically and internationally, we should have oversight over those rulemaking activities. Okay. In accordance with that, I sent you a letter a couple of weeks ago, and thank you for the reply. I don’t actually like the contents of it, but thank you for replying in a timely fashion before the hearing. I asked for your assurance about your participation in these international agreements, for you to pause until the new Administration, who has a markedly different approach to these standards, has actually gotten their appointees in before you finalize any discussions internationally. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00022 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 19 Mrs. YELLEN. Congressman, you know that nothing is a rule that is effective in the United States until regulatory agencies have gone through a normal rulemaking process, and nothing in these international discussions binds the U.S. regulatory agencies, including the Fed, to carry out agreements in our own rulemakings in the United States. Mr. MCHENRY. I certainly understand that. Mrs. YELLEN. And we have, in important cases, indicated that we don’t agree with the outcomes of international discussions and have no intention of putting in place— Mr. MCHENRY. In other cases, we can’t even surmise whether or not your representative from the Fed has voted in the affirmative or in the negative on these agreements that we are then, as your agency comes back and foists upon us an international agreement that has not been apparently voted on because we can’t surmise if you voted yes or no. And so there is a great deal of opacity with that, and what we want is transparency in this. And transparency has been severely lacking. So my question is very simple: When it comes to the Basel IV package, do you intend to wait to see if the new Administration has an opinion on these matters before you would make some agreement on the Basel IV package? Mrs. YELLEN. These are all ongoing discussions in which U.S. regulators participate and, as I said, nothing is effective in the United States unless we go through a rulemaking process here. Mr. MCHENRY. Okay. So— Mrs. YELLEN. It is important— Mr. MCHENRY. —I will summarize that— Mrs. YELLEN. It is important for the United States. Mr. MCHENRY. —as probably not, that you will probably not wait for the new Administration to put regulators in place even if those new regulators are in place and move to counteract exactly what you have achieved within an international agreement. Yesterday, before the Senate Banking Committee, you seemed to endorse the core principles of President Trump’s financial regulation Executive Order. What steps are you taking to comply with the Executive Order directive to advance America’s interests in international forums, specifically as it relates to international standards like the net stable funding ratio and international insurance regulation? Mrs. YELLEN. In the case of the international insurance regulation we have indicated that the capital standard that was proposed is not one that we think is suitable to be put in place in the United States, and I think that is a good example of the fact that matters that are discussed and may be agreed on by others are not effective in the United States unless we have gone through a full rulemaking process with opportunity for comment and response. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Massachusetts, Mr. Capuano. Mr. CAPUANO. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Madam Chair, for being here today. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00023 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 20 You said earlier, and it has been referenced now a couple of times, that you agree with the core principles enunciated in the President’s Executive Order. I just want to read a couple of them: to empower Americans to make informed choices; to prevent taxpayer-funded bailouts; to foster economic growth and vibrant financial markets; and to restore public accountability. Everybody agrees with those core principles, but I don’t see anything in here that specifically says that Dodd-Frank has been a failure and needs to be repealed. Did I miss it? I didn’t see anything here that said any specific regulation in any level needs to be repealed or amended. Did I miss that? Is that in the core principles? Mrs. YELLEN. The Executive Order asks the Treasury Secretary, working with FSOC— Mr. CAPUANO. Just to do these things? Mrs. YELLEN. —members to conduct a review. Mr. CAPUANO. So this is all about motherhood, apple pie, and puppy dogs. We all love this stuff, and therefore the Executive Order, though wonderful and very powerful, means nothing. Let me read a little bit more from it: It is to promote the financial stability of the United States by improving the accountability and transparency in the financial system, to end too-big-to-fail, to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, and to protect consumers from abusive financial practices—financial service—oh, oh, excuse me. I was reading the wrong thing. That is actually the preamble to the Dodd-Frank bill. Sounds very familiar, doesn’t it? I could have mistaken that for the President’s Executive Order because, again, who could oppose any of that? So, that is wonderful. I am glad we all agree that the President’s Executive Order is very powerful. By the way, don’t you love Greg Meeks? [laughter] He hit that nail so hard and so well, that ball is still flying over Fenway Park, I will tell you. It was a great way to lead this in, and I have almost nothing further to say, but I will try. Just out of curiosity, Madam Chair, do you or any of your highranking staff own any banks? Mrs. YELLEN. No. Mr. CAPUANO. Do you own any stock in any banks? Mrs. YELLEN. No. Mr. CAPUANO. Do any of your immediate family members own any banks or any stock in any banks? Mrs. YELLEN. No. Mr. CAPUANO. So therefore, you have—I don’t know if it is formal or informal—you have no emoluments coming in to anybody at the Federal Reserve. Is that— Mrs. YELLEN. We have a stringent set of ethics requirements to which we adhere. Mr. CAPUANO. So you think it would be unethical if you, any of your high-ranking staff, or any of your family members were to financially benefit from the work that you do? Mrs. YELLEN. It would be a conflict of interest for us and— Mr. CAPUANO. That is good to hear because— VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00024 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 21 Mrs. YELLEN. —we have rules in place to— Mr. CAPUANO. —apparently, not everybody— Mrs. YELLEN. —prevent that. Mr. CAPUANO. —agrees with that approach, and to me it has been a little troubling. I am glad to know that you and your staff and your family have high ethical values. I wish everyone tried to do that, but I guess that is another discussion for another day. I also want to ask you, I know there have been a lot of concerns about making these banks—getting rid of all these regulations so they can get rid of all of that capital money that they are just sitting there doing nothing, which, of course, is not right, but that is okay. I will take that. As I understand the capital requirements—and correct me if I am wrong—if I go to a bank and deposit $100 in my checking account, I know there will be some dollar fees here and there that I have to pay, but effectively, pursuant to the general regulation, the bank is then required to pretty much hold 6 of those dollars in a capital account, roughly 6 percent of what I have deposited. That doesn’t mean it is just sitting there, but that is what they have to do. So if the bank goes belly up and there is a run, or if I just want my money back, the bank says—if they have a problem, they have made bad choices, the economy has gone south, something—maybe there is a President who cut taxes too much or got involved in too many wars that he didn’t want to pay for. But if anything happened and I went to that bank and there was a run, I could only get 6 of my dollars back based on those capital requirements. Do you think that is sufficient that 6 percent of their assets are held in capital? Mrs. YELLEN. Let’s see. We have liquidity requirements, which would take some of your deposit and require them to hold it in— Mr. CAPUANO. But my $100 isn’t it. They don’t have to sit on my $100 or, even 90 of those dollars, or 80 or 70 or 50 or 20. Mrs. YELLEN. What we want to make sure of is that the loans that the bank makes are— Mr. CAPUANO. Right, but you think—and I am not arguing; you are the professional—roughly $6 is sufficient to cover their needs in real times of crisis? Mrs. YELLEN. We have a number of different ways to gauge how much capital they should have— Mr. CAPUANO. But apparently some people on the other side are saying, ‘‘My God, that is too much. We can’t keep that $6. The heck with those depositors.’’ Thank you, Madam Chair. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Missouri, Mr. Luetkemeyer, chairman of our Financial Institutions Subcommittee. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And, Chair Yellen, thank you so much for being here today. Just kind of a refresher course. Some of my friends across the aisle have been talking about how wonderful and rosy things are. If you look at the GDP growth for the last several years, every year it is less than it was the year before. And if I recall, my high school math VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00025 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 22 teacher called that a negative trend line, which means you are going the wrong direction fast. So along that line, yesterday, Chair Yellen, your testimony in the Banking Committee over in the Senate tried to paint a very rosy picture of lending in the United States, especially for small business, and you cited independent national—the National Federation of Independent Business study confirming that thought. But what you have failed to mention was that 65 percent of the businesses that responded to the survey had no intention of borrowing. Why? Why did they not want to borrow any money? That is the question. That is the concern. Mrs. YELLEN. I think that is a legitimate concern that small businesses haven’t seen rapid enough growth in their sales and in business overall that they feel the need to borrow. Of course, that is a concern. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. As I go home every weekend and I talk to my small business folks, for the last several years it has been a regulatory onslaught for them, and part of it is banking regulation, which makes it difficult to get access to credit. And I will just give you one quick example. A banker friend of mine sold his bank to a larger bank and the executive officer stayed in the bank, and over the last year they made 3 loans—3 loans in the entire bank where he normally made 30 per month. That is the kind of restriction of credit that is going on in the real world. So I guess my question to you is, when is the last time you talked to a small business owner? Do you talk to small business owners at all? Mrs. YELLEN. We do talk to small business owners. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. When was the last time you personally talked to a small business owner? Mrs. YELLEN. We have groups that come in regularly to meet with me and other Board Members. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. When was the last—can you give me a date? Last week? Last month? Last year? Mrs. YELLEN. Probably within the last several weeks. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Okay. Have you talked to a farmer lately? Mrs. YELLEN. Talked to whom? Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Have you talked to a farmer lately? He is a small business person. Mrs. YELLEN. Not recently. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Okay. One of the other concerns that I have is because of this onslaught of regulations, and especially in the banking community, you are one of the regulators, there are obviously other groups of them here that are—in my mind are problematic with the onslaught of rules and regulations. In my home State of Missouri, at the end of 2015, which is the year before last—I haven’t gotten the numbers for last year yet— there were 44 banks total that totaled under $50 million. Those are the little bitty guys, but they service a community, a very important small community someplace in my State. Twenty-six of those lost money—26 of those 44 small banks lost money in 2015. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00026 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 23 Now, those are all targets for either closure or a merger, and that is very concerning because, as I just stated, you wind up with a small bank being absorbed by a larger bank. It cuts the ability of small businesses in those communities to be able to have access to credit as well as every consumer, whether it is home loans or what. And so that gets me then to my next concern, which is the clearinghouse came up with a study—a report on your CCAR. And in there it makes the statement that the Fed’s process—CCAR process—is restricting lending and thwarting economic growth, particularly in small business and mortgage lending. What would your response be to that? Mrs. YELLEN. I think that is a highly flawed study that was used. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. A highly flawed study? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes, and I would disagree with its findings. I could go into detail about what some of the flaws are with the methodology— Mr. LUETKEMEYER. No. Give me an example, please. Well, one flaw is that the clearinghouse estimates effective risk weights produced by stress tests by looking at the average quality of bank portfolios and not the quality of marginal or new loans. And that is a huge difference because the existing loan portfolio often has loans that were originated that are encountering problems and— Mr. LUETKEMEYER. I don’t disagree with you on risk weighting. I am not a big fan of risk weighting either, and as I go through the chart here it is amazing to me, you wound up having to have more capital when you risk weight for small business loans than you do for commercial industrial loans. Can you explain that? Mrs. YELLEN. Our stress-testing methodology tries to take a forward-looking and institution-specific approach and capture— Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Okay. Let me reframe the question. If you have a small business loan at $50,000 and you have a large industrial loan at $50 million, 100 times larger in size, tell me where the most risk is to the bank? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t think that is the difference in risk weights implicit in our stress test. Mr. LUETKEMEYER. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Missouri, Mr. Clay, ranking member of our Financial Institutions Subcommittee. Mr. CLAY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Chair Yellen, for your appearance today. President Trump’s proposals would have far-reaching negative consequences for the economy. These harmful policies include rolling back the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, cutting taxes for the wealthy, curtailing immigration and deporting undocumented immigrants, adopting a protectionist trade policy, eliminating the Affordable Care Act, and cutting back the social safety net for vulnerable population. And the President has also reversed a planned Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premium cut that would have saved homeowners $500 a year, which may not be much to some, VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00027 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 24 but for a lot of moderate-income Americans, that means something to them. I consider the Trump agenda to be harmful to hardworking American families, and ultimately catastrophic for the whole economy. Here is my question: After the recession of 2008, bringing in some kind of regulation over—and responsibility—over our financial institutions, including creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), have we not learned anything since 2008? And now we have this effort to roll back these regulations. What do you think the impact will be on our economy if we do this in a willy-nilly way? Mrs. YELLEN. Looking back, I think we know that consumer abuses in lending and in securitization mortgage lending were an important contributor to the financial crisis and can be a source of financial instability in the future if we are not attentive to those areas and potential abuses. Mr. CLAY. Do you believe that the CFPB has done a pretty good job of protecting our consumer, of getting them money back, and has been the backstop for our consumers? Let me hear your opinion about the CFPB. Mrs. YELLEN. It is really for you to evaluate your judgment on their performance. But they have had a broad agenda and taken on attempts to regulate in many important areas. Mr. CLAY. Thank you for that response. And I know that unemployment is down; however, I think more work still needs to be done to reverse decades-long inequality that has left middle-class workers, low-income families, and minority communities behind. Generational and systemic inequities continue to distort progress and opportunity for tens of millions of Americans. What can we do to address some of those concerns? Mrs. YELLEN. I agree with that, and I think this ongoing inequality is something on which Congress should focus. I think there are many public policies that are relevant. They are largely not in the domain of the Fed, but they would, for starters, involve focus on education, training, community development, and other things that would improve the chances for success of communities that have had historically serious labor market problems. Mr. CLAY. And I appreciate that response, which tells me that Congress should be about helping this economy and going about the business of job creation and not looking to roll back regulations that are there to protect the American consumer. My time is up. Thank you so much for your engagement. Mrs. YELLEN. Thank you. Chairman HENSARLING. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Michigan, Mr. Huizenga, chairman of our Capital Markets Subcommittee. Mr. HUIZENGA. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And, Chair Yellen, it’s good to see you. This is my first time not being able to engage you as Chair of the Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee, as I am now chairing the Capital Markets Subcommittee. I want to move on to a number of issues, but quick- VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00028 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 25 ly, do you plan to have lunch with Secretary Mnuchin as often as you did with Secretary Lew? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes, absolutely. I look forward to a very strong working relationship with him— Mr. HUIZENGA. Right. That is something that we had talked about previously. We pulled your public calendar, and over the last 3 years—34 months, actually—there were 68 official meetings that you had with Secretary Lew. You had 32 meetings with Members of Congress, including 8 with the ranking member, 2 with the chairman, and one with myself as Chair of Monetary Policy, and I think that is one of the reasons why I have certainly advocated for you to come more often, and as part of the FORM Act we had put in place a requirement to come up 4 times a year rather than 2 times a year. I know some on the other side have thought that was burdensome and intrusive. I think it is good communication. So I appreciate you being here today. Does the economy still need improving? Mrs. YELLEN. That is a very broad question and it goes— Mr. HUIZENGA. That would seem either yes or no. Mrs. YELLEN. In many dimensions, yes. Mr. HUIZENGA. Okay. I will take that. Mrs. YELLEN. Many disappointing aspects of U.S. economic performance— Mr. HUIZENGA. Okay. I will take that. We have seen a lot of rosy scenarios painted by some. And I will fully admit, there are incongruent data points here. The conflicting information that comes, brings a couple of jokes to mind: Have you ever seen a one-handed economist? No. There are liars, damned liars, and statisticians. You can make a lot of numbers say a lot of different things, and I think we have heard some of those. But I am curious, what is the U6 unemployment rate right now? Mrs. YELLEN. I believe it is 9.4 percent. Mr. HUIZENGA. Yes. That is the information that I have, as well, and you talk about that on page one. You don’t talk specifically about it. You do talk about the unemployment rate being 4.8 percent. You don’t mention that it is the 9.4 percent. You do use a, I guess, charmingly phrased description here of those marginally attached to the labor force to describe the U6. I think that is quite problematic. And isn’t it true, Chair Yellen, that we are in the slowest, shallowest, and most tepid recovery in the modern era since World War II? Mrs. YELLEN. It took a long time for the economy to remove labor market slack and get unemployment down and close— Mr. HUIZENGA. Okay. That sounds like a yes, and for— Mrs. YELLEN. —growth has been slow in the process. Mr. HUIZENGA. —an economist, that is pretty direct. Okay. And is it not true that the Obama Administration is the first Administration since World War II in the modern era which has not returned the economy to pre-recession levels? VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00029 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 26 Mrs. YELLEN. I would say that the economy is at pre-recession levels now in terms of the unemployment rate and other measures of the labor market— Mr. HUIZENGA. Unemployment, not U6, according to the numbers that I have seen. And is it not true that there have been 30 quarters—not months—30 quarters of recovery? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. Mr. HUIZENGA. Right? Okay. I think that was talked about. But pretty tepid recovery, don’t you think, that it has taken 30 quarters to recover to that level, even if it is close? Mrs. YELLEN. We have had a very deep downturn. Mr. HUIZENGA. I fully understand that. But isn’t it true that the labor force participation rates are at record lows? Mrs. YELLEN. The labor force participation rate is largely declining because we have an aging population— Mr. HUIZENGA. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Mrs. YELLEN. —and it will continue to do so. Mr. HUIZENGA. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. I have to throw the flag on that one because there is an MIT economist report that just came out recently, which found that younger workers are not entering the labor force but older workers are, and that is the only growth area and the only demographic which is seeing increases is older workers. You are starting to sell a little flimflam here on, ‘‘No, no, it is because we are an aging demographic.’’ But the only demographic that is entering the workforce, according to this study, is the older worker. So— Mrs. YELLEN. The labor force participation rate of older workers is rising, but their prevalence—they work very much less, although they work more than previous generations did. Labor force participation— Mr. HUIZENGA. They are hard workers. I am the product of one of those. Mrs. YELLEN. —falls dramatically when people get into the retirement years— Mr. HUIZENGA. Well, in my— Mrs. YELLEN. —and their fractions in the U.S. population— Mr. HUIZENGA. Okay. Mrs. YELLEN. —are increasing. Mr. HUIZENGA. In my remaining 10 seconds here, I just want to know, isn’t it true that if we would have thrown off the shackles of unreasonable regulation, we would have had a faster, steeper recovery? Mrs. YELLEN. I would not generally agree with that. Mr. HUIZENGA. You would not generally agree with that. So more regulation would have caused faster recovery? Mrs. YELLEN. By cleaning up our financial institutions and requiring them to build their capital buffers— Mr. HUIZENGA. I did use the word ‘‘unreasonable.’’ Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. Mr. HUIZENGA. Unreasonable regulation. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00030 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 27 The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Massachusetts, Mr. Lynch. Mr. LYNCH. Good morning, Madam Chair. And thank you, Mr. Chairman, and Ranking Member Waters. Chair Yellen, welcome back to the committee. I do want to talk about a couple of the statements coming out of the White House that are similar to statements made by the chairman in his bill, the Financial Choice Act. There have been extensive complaints that the level of regulation created in Dodd-Frank has prevented small businesses and other businesses from getting loans. Now, I am in Massachusetts. I realize it is a—it may be an outlier. We have a very strong economy and the lending institutions there, I would say the environment is very robust. But is there any evidence—I talk to my colleagues from around the country. Is there any evidence that folks aren’t getting loans? Because that—I have not run into any evidence of that. Mrs. YELLEN. Loans, core loans, and C&I lending has certainly increased at a solid pace in recent years. Survey evidence that I have cited from small business owners suggests that they do not see inadequate access to credit as a significant problem— Mr. LYNCH. Can you talk about those surveys? Mrs. YELLEN. The National Federation of Independent Business’s most recent survey shows that only 4 percent of business owners regard themselves as not having all of the loans available to them that they would ideally like. I can’t remember the exact wording. Mr. LYNCH. So 96—that would imply— Mrs. YELLEN. So 96 percent are fully satisfied with their access to credit. And only— Mr. LYNCH. That would seem good to me. I don’t know, am I missing something? Mrs. YELLEN. No. And only 2 percent list inadequate access to credit as their most significant problem. Now, I think for some small businesses they do access credit, for example, not by taking out traditional business loans but, say, by borrowing against a home equity line of credit. Mr. LYNCH. Okay. Mrs. YELLEN. And I think that the decline in residential property prices may have impaired that borrowing route for some small businesses. It wouldn’t show up in these numbers, but generally access to business loans looks to me by most metrics to be quite adequate. Mr. LYNCH. Thank you. One of the other efforts in the Dodd-Frank repeal in the Financial Choice Act would be repeal of the orderly liquidation authority that was included in Dodd-Frank to preclude taxpayer bailouts in the future. I actually voted consistently against the bailouts for our banks because people in my district who didn’t even have bank accounts were being asked to bail out the banks which had put our economy in the toilet. What do you think about removing the orderly liquidation authority in Dodd-Frank? Mrs. YELLEN. I would not want to see it removed, although I do think that bankruptcy should be the main vehicle for resolving a firm in distress. We have put in place protections that both make VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00031 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 28 it much less likely that a firm would fail, would ensure that if it did that there would be sufficient debt and equity to recapitalize the firm. I know that the Choice Act proposes changes to the bankruptcy code that I think would be helpful in making bankruptcy work as a preferred option, but I think orderly liquidation is a backup procedure. We don’t know what the circumstances might be in which a firm might fail. An issue in bankruptcy is that firms commonly need liquidity; they need access to the equivalent of debtor-in-possession financing. Title II provides that kind of liquidity and puts the burden on the financial sector itself, not U.S. taxpayers, for bearing any burdens that may be incurred. And I do continue to worry with bankruptcy. Although we are working closely with firms to make sure they have liquidity plans that would enable an orderly bankruptcy, that is always a concern. Mr. LYNCH. Thank you. Mr. Chairman, my time has expired. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Wisconsin, Mr. Duffy, chairman of our Housing and Insurance Subcommittee. Mr. DUFFY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, welcome. You have a wonderful poker face. You testify well, but I must say that your staff behind you does not. It is interesting to watch your staff as the political shots are taken. You can’t see them because they are behind you, but as the political shots are taken from the other side of the aisle, the little smiles and joy that they take behind you and the grimaces that come from our side, I just want to point that out. They do not have the poker face that you do. You talked briefly about regulation. I will just make this point, not a question. You don’t necessarily see regulation as a problem today with regard to economic growth. However, you did, the last time you testified, answer questions from me where you did note that they were a headwind to economic growth. So I am seeing a little difference in your testimony. I don’t know if that has anything to do with the election and Mr. Trump’s Executive Order to wind back some of the over-burdensome regulation or not. Just an observation. But a question for you: The size of a bank—is there any correlation with large banks and systemic risk, in your opinion? Or can there be a correlation between the size of a bank and systemic risk? Mrs. YELLEN. It is not the only measure of systemic risk— Mr. DUFFY. Right. Mrs. YELLEN. —but it is generally true that the largest banks give rise to the greatest systemic risk. And I would like to just clarify, I think we should be concerned, and I am concerned with regulatory burden. And if I haven’t made that clear, that is an oversight on my part. I didn’t agree that regulation was the key factor resulting in slow growth, but we are concerned about regulatory burden. I am committed to doing everything that we can— Mr. DUFFY. Thank you for the clarification, yes. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00032 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 29 Mrs. YELLEN. —to reduce it, and I do want to clarify and make that clear. Mr. DUFFY. Thank you for the clarification. I appreciate that. So you will acknowledge it is a factor, the size of a bank as it relates to systemic risk. Since Dodd-Frank has passed, have the largest banks in America gotten bigger or smaller? Mrs. YELLEN. Probably bigger. Mr. DUFFY. It is easy. Bigger, that is right. Have we seen an increase in the number of small community banks that dot rural parts of the country, like from where I come from, or have we seen a contraction of smaller community banks and credit unions? Mrs. YELLEN. There is a consolidation— Mr. DUFFY. There is a consolidation, right. So since Dodd-Frank we have seen big banks get bigger and we have seen a consolidation or an eradication of small community banks and credit unions. Question for you in regard to the crisis: Did mortgage-backed securities have anything to do with the 2008 crisis? Mrs. YELLEN. Of course. Mr. DUFFY. Of course they did. And do you know what reform came from Dodd-Frank in regard to mortgage-backed securities, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac? Was there any reform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Any GSE reform in Dodd-Frank to address one of the great causes of the crisis, which was mortgage-backed securities? Did Dodd-Frank address GSEs? Mrs. YELLEN. It remains an open matter. Mr. DUFFY. It remains an open question. Right, because one of the main drivers of the crisis, GSEs, weren’t even addressed. They did nothing. On the root driver of the crisis they left it alone, which is concerning for us. Now, hopefully in the next year-and-a-half we are going to be able to address our GSEs, but the promises were great about all the good that would come from Dodd-Frank, but we can’t underestimate what has happened since it has been passed, where big banks have gotten bigger and we have seen the small community banks that serve my community—it is nearly impossible for them to survive, let alone thrive, with the regulatory burden. I want ask you about the labor participation rate based on Mr. Huizenga’s questions, the lack of President Obama hitting 3 percent growth. Not since President Hoover has that happened. But with the conversation about border adjustment tax, do you have any opinions on the conversation that is now taking place in the House and the Senate and the White House on what that does to bring jobs back to America, what that does to the economy? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t think it is appropriate for me to weigh in, in detail, on a specific fiscal measure— Mr. DUFFY. So 30,000 feet. Not specifics, but 30,000 feet. Good idea? Well over 100 countries have some border adjustment, right? Mrs. YELLEN. It is a complicated policy, the effects of which— Mr. DUFFY. But many countries have this? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. Mr. DUFFY. Yes. Mrs. YELLEN. In connection with VAT taxes. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00033 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 30 Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Georgia, Mr. Scott. Mr. SCOTT. Thank you. Welcome, Chair Yellen. First of all, I want to say thank you. I want to thank you for our work over the past 2 years together in dealing with and addressing this alarming high unemployment rate in the African-American community, and that is especially rampant within the African-American community of young AfricanAmerican men ages 18 to 39. I also appreciate your suggesting to us when we discussed it that inflation and unemployment is, indeed, your dual mission, but when it comes to targeted unemployment like this, you have only a blunt instrument. And what we should do is go and develop legislation. And in response to Mr. Clay earlier, you again reiterated that. So now we have done that, and we have two very important pieces of legislation that address that by myself and my co-sponsors, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, Republican; my good friend, Reverend Emmanuel Cleaver, Democratic co-sponsor from Missouri; Mia Love, of Utah; Mrs. Beatty, of Ohio. And certainly, we believe—along with Pete Sessions, who is at the Rules Committee. But here is our issue right now: We need some help in getting a meeting with the President of the United States. This is why, as you know, the job component and training will be attached to his efforts to rebuild the crumbling infrastructure. Secondly, the administration of this part of our legislation will be through his Secretary of Labor. And then on our education piece, in which we are asking for $95 million to help these struggling, hardworking African-American 1890s land grant institutions like Tuskegee University and Florida A&M, Fort Valley, Prairie View A&M in Texas, Lincoln University up in Missouri. But we have been unable to get a meeting. We are at dead water, and I call upon you to ask President Trump if he would be kind enough just to give me and my co-sponsors an opportunity to come over to the White House and talk to him about these bills, because it has to be a partnership here. His Administration would have to administer it; we can only produce the policy. But if we can’t get a chance to get in to talk to the President, how are we going to get his buy-in? Chair Yellen, President Bush said on numerous occasions that he wanted to help the African-American community: ‘‘What the hell have you got to lose?’’ he said over and over. Well, give us that chance. I ask you to put the unemployment side of your mission hat on. Nobody, no Federal agency has unemployment as a mandate as the Fed does. So you have good credit to be able to go to President Trump and say, ‘‘Mr. President, I am not endorsing any legislation over there, but there is a very good package of bipartisan legislation that goes to the heart and the soul of the most devastating issue facing the African-American community today.’’ Tell him that we now have more African-American young men ages 18 to 39 in the prisons or on probation or parole with felony convictions. All hope is gone for them. But the problem is there is VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00034 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 31 a train leading more and more of these young men there. But if we can get those scholarships into these African-American colleges for these kids—the agricultural business and science and technology is reaching out. And I thank you for your efforts in doing that. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentlelady from Missouri, Mrs. Wagner, chairwoman of our Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee. Mrs. WAGNER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, thank you for joining us today. I, too, noticed yesterday before the Senate Banking Committee that you agreed with the core principles that were part of President Trump’s Executive Order calling for a review of the U.S. financial regulatory framework, and I thank you for that. I hope that you will work with newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on identifying some of the regulations on the books that conflict with these principles. We have had a robust discussion about regulations. This Executive Order requires you to consult with Treasury. What are you doing specifically, Chair Yellen, to identify the regulations that inhibit these core principles? Mrs. YELLEN. We look forward to working with the Treasury Secretary on this project and we will cooperate fully once it is under way. I think he has only been in office for a day. The process is not yet established, but we look forward to participating in it. Mrs. WAGNER. We look forward to hearing about that process as it goes forward and how you will be participating and coordinating with him. As you know, President Trump has signed a few other additional Executive Orders relating to regulations—most notably, an Executive Order issuing a regulatory freeze and an order repealing two regulations for each new regulation proposed. I understand that the Federal Reserve, as an independent agency, is exempt from these Executive Orders. However, Chair Yellen, do you plan on volunteering to comply in any capacity with these orders? Mrs. YELLEN. In the past when there have been similar freezes put in place the Fed has—when it has had a rulemaking that has been well-telegraphed, under way for a long time, it has continued with the regulatory process, and I would expect that—there is nothing that we have put in place recently that was not well understood or ready, or most of what we would be looking at would be notices of proposed rulemaking where there would be plenty of opportunity for comment by those who might be appointed to our Board, Members of Congress and others. Mrs. WAGNER. I thank you for that. I hope that you will be willing to voluntarily comply with these orders as you go forward when it comes to any additional rule-letting. As you know, and has been discussed in this hearing and to that point, the position of the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision has remained vacant since the passage of Dodd-Frank, and I hope that our President will be nominating a capable person to fill that position. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00035 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 32 Since Governor Tarullo, who has been performing many of the regulatory coordination functions of that role in the meantime, has indicated that he is going to be resigning in April, what remaining regulatory agenda items, since we are discussing that, are being planned until he leaves? Mrs. YELLEN. We have a relatively light schedule. We do have one possible rulemaking. Mrs. WAGNER. And what is that, ma’am? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t know what the timetable would be. It pertains to our stress tests and what is called the Stress Capital Buffer that came out of our 5-year review. I don’t know just what the timetable is—it has been in the works a long time and I think the financial community is aware— Mrs. WAGNER. Do you think that there is some benefit, ma’am, in waiting until we are able to nominate and confirm a Vice Chair for Supervision to weigh in before pressing on with further regulatory initiatives? Mrs. YELLEN. If we were to come out with it, it would be a notice of proposed rulemaking, and a new Vice Chair for Supervision would certainly have a chance, along with others, to weigh in on that. Mrs. WAGNER. Thank you, Chair Yellen. In my limited time, I applaud the Federal Reserve for recently providing some limited relief to financial institutions from the qualitative, I will say, portions of stress tests, or CCAR. As you know, the GAO issued a report late last year with several criticisms and recommendations regarding the stress testing process, particularly in regards to transparency. What are the Fed’s plans for considering and implementing the GAOs recommendations, ma’am? Mrs. YELLEN. We certainly value and accept those recommendations and intend to implement them in our— Mrs. WAGNER. Thank you. Does the Fed have any plans on doing a more comprehensive review of how it conducts stress tests? Mrs. YELLEN. We are completing a 5-year review that is comprehensive, and those changes that you mentioned that relieved burdens for a large number of medium or larger size banking organizations, that in one of the outcomes of that. Mrs. WAGNER. Thank you, Chair Yellen. I yield back my time. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentlelady has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Texas, Mr. Green. Mr. GREEN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I thank the ranking member, as well. And thank you, Madam Chairlady. It is an honor to have you with us. You have done an outstanding job, in my opinion, and you have tried as best as you can to help us to maintain your mandate. I would just like to mention initially that President Obama has made efforts, and many Members of Congress—David Scott, the Member from Georgia, just mentioned his efforts to bring down unemployment as it relates to African-Americans, more specifically African-American males. Congressman Jim Clyburn has a plan that he calls 10-20-30. The President had a JOBS Act. We have tried to have summer job training programs. So there have been VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00036 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 33 efforts made to try to bring down the high rate of unemployment in the African-American community as well as in other communities. But it seems that some of the obstacles include this process or premise that we can engage in expansionary fiscal contraction and that will eliminate some of the problems. There is a fiscal austerity program that has been implemented by my colleagues on the other side. And these things have actually, in my opinion, been a hindrance. So, given that Congress has not acted appropriately and given that there is this high rate of unemployment in the African-American community, I am calling on the Fed to do a little bit more. And I ask that you do this because I have received an executive summary that I would like to share with you. It is styled, ‘‘Experiences and Perspectives of Young Workers.’’ This is from December 2016, and this summary gives me information, including the following: ‘‘The Federal Reserve conducted its first survey of young workers over November and December 2013 to develop a deeper understanding of the forces at play,’’ meaning the reasons why young workers may be having employment problems. ‘‘In December 2015, the Federal Reserve conducted a second survey of young workers to further explore market issues and trends among this population.’’ You go on in this report to indicate some of the outlook expectations. Young adults with a paid job are more optimistic than those without a paid job. Among young adults, steady employment remains more important than higher pay— steady employment, important. You go on to indicate that many young adults gain early work experience during high school, college, or both. Early employment develops a good work ethic. And then full-time employment is also correlated with a positive outlook and job satisfaction. So what you have done with this survey, this report, is get some sense of what is happening with young adults. I have not seen a similar report for the African-American community. Does such a report exist? If it does, I would like to peruse it. If it does not exist, I believe, Madam Chair, that you have the mandate and the authority to produce such a report. At some point we have to study, and give empirical evidence, as to why African-American unemployment is almost always twice that of White unemployment. Pick any period of time, pick any President, pick any Administration, and this is a consistent number that you will find. Twice as much as White unemployment. We need the empirical evidence so that we can use that here in Congress to promote better legislation. Possibly, we have not given the proper legislative answer. Can the Fed do this? If it has already done it, I would love to read the report. Mrs. YELLEN. I am not aware that we have already done it, but we have a great deal of research going on in the Fed, and I would encourage people at the Fed and will discuss it with them, trying to look more carefully at this. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00037 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 34 Mr. GREEN. Let me assure you that this will be a quantum leap forward to receive empirical evidence from the Fed as to why we have this constant number of 2 times White unemployment. That would be a quantum leap forward. I am going to beg, Madam Chair, that you do what you can to get this done such that maybe when you are back the next time we can discuss some of these issue related to why African-American unemployment is so high. And I would also add this: Much of what I read here explains some of what is happening in the African-American community— no summer jobs, no jobs early in life, no opportunity to develop a work ethic. These things are important, and I beg that you help us. Thank you. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from New York, Mr. King. Mr. KING. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, I am concerned about proposals that would change the composition of the FOMC by removing the vice chairman position and the New York Fed’s permanent voting status. That strikes me as misguided, since the New York Fed has responsibilities that no other district bank has, including carrying out our country’s monetary policy on behalf of the FOMC and the entire Federal Reserve System. Could you discuss some of the differences between the New York Fed and the other district banks? And would you say that the New York Fed has unique institutional knowledge of the financial markets? Mrs. YELLEN. The New York Fed has long had a special and important role in the Federal Reserve System. It has long been the bank that is involved in the markets for us, conducts our open market operations, plays an important role in gathering market intelligence and understanding financial market trends, and because so many especially large banks are headquartered in New York, has very large supervisory staff that plays an important role in our supervision program. And the decision that the president of the New York Fed should serve as the FOMC vice Chair and vote at every meeting reflects that traditional role. I think it is something that has worked well. Mr. KING. Not to put you on the spot, but the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of San Francisco, Atlanta, Chicago, and Cleveland have all publicly stated that they support the current structure of the FOMC and a permanent seat for New York. Do you agree with that? Mrs. YELLEN. I think we have a structure that works well, and I am not seeking changes to that aspect of it. Mr. KING. I will not push my luck, and I will accept that answer. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentleman yields back. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Missouri, Mr. Cleaver, ranking member of our Housing and Insurance Subcommittee. Mr. CLEAVER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Madam Chair. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00038 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 35 Two Saturdays ago in Kansas City, Missouri, where I reside, I held a town hall meeting where the media said 1,000 people showed up, but it was probably about 1,100, on the Executive Order on immigration, and people showed up with great fear. And this past Saturday—I was in Baltimore on Saturday evening and all of a sudden my cell phone started ringing, just one call after another, and there was widespread panic in Kansas City in the clergy community. Across-the-board, Catholics, Protestants were all concerned— there is a pastors’ phone chain, so people were calling each other— that ICE would be at churches on this past Sunday arresting immigrants—undocumented immigrants. It was such a big deal that if your staff or if any of my colleagues’ staff would like to check, it is a front-page story in the Kansas City Star on the rumor. All three—well, four—networks did stories, and so they were calling asking me, ‘‘How many ICE agents are coming in?’’ It was just an awful kind of a thing, and I felt terrible because I was in Baltimore and was unable to be there. How this connects with you is, I am just wondering, if there is some success at deporting 11 million immigrants, do you think that will have any kind of impact on the U.S. economy? If we were able to just get rid of all of the undocumented workers by next Thursday, do you think there would be any impact on this economy? Mrs. YELLEN. Immigration has been an important part of labor force growth in the United States for some time now. We are in a period in which one factor responsible for slowing growth is slower labor force growth, and a radical change in immigration would certainly affect the potential of the economy to grow. Mr. CLEAVER. I will convey that. And the preachers were concerned because they had read about a guy who said, ‘‘I was a stranger and you took me in.’’ It was in a book. And so they—based on that, they thought they had an obligation to respond affirmatively. The other thing is that I think in 2012, the Fed did a study on the housing collapse that we experienced, which triggered the 2008 economic recession. And over the years, for whatever reason, the GSEs have been blamed for the economic collapse, that they set policies that allowed them to give loans—actually they don’t give loans; they were buying loans. But they were blamed for the economic collapse. Your study says otherwise. Can you shorten that into a paragraph? Mrs. YELLEN. A wide range of problems in the mortgage market, I think, led to the crisis, and the GSEs were probably not the critical part of what caused it. Mr. CLEAVER. I have too many questions. In all the effort to repeal Dodd-Frank, there is a section in there where the wording is not as strong as I am saying it, but they are essentially saying that we are going to give oil companies the right to bribe elected officials or officials in company—in countries. So we are removing a section of Dodd-Frank so that—so bribery is now a part of—or it is again a part of the way in which U.S. companies operate in foreign countries. My time ran out. I apologize. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00039 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 36 Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentlemen has expired. The Chair wishes to advise Members that I intend to recognize Mr. Royce, Mrs. Beatty, and Mr. Pittenger, and then declare a 10minute recess. The gentleman from California, Mr. Royce, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is recognized. Mr. ROYCE. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. And, Chair Yellen, it’s good to see you. I would like to follow up on a question here about capital. We know on the one hand that over-leveraged institutions are vulnerable to market shocks, and we remember the consequences. If you look back at the over-leveraging of the investment banks, for the large ones 40-to-one. And if you look at the GSEs that were leveraged at that time, over 100-to-one. And that was in the lead-up to the financial crisis. And so we can see that capital standards must play a role in building resilience in the U.S. financial system. On the other hand, raising capital also has a cost to the economy and a cost in terms of what it does to the potential for growth. So what we have here is a classic cost-benefit test. There is a benefit to higher capital standards. They reduce the risk of a future financial crisis and bailouts as well as potentially increasing tax revenues. And while the cost will be borne by borrowers in the form of higher funding costs, and the economy as a whole with less capital formation and a lower GDP, you have that on the other side of the equation. So as you have said in the past, the cost-benefit analysis is difficult work. And I agree. It is not easy. But it is not impossible and it is important. In 2010, the Basel Committee did some work on this subject, and also researchers at George Mason recently published a paper on the benefits and costs of a higher bank leverage ratio. So how do we get to the right number? Should it be 5 percent? The 10 percent in the Choice Act? Or 23.5 percent, as proposed by the Minneapolis Fed President? There is quite a range there. And I don’t expect you to say a number today, but can’t you agree that a cost-benefit analysis could help us more effectively require that capital? And I will start with that question. Mrs. YELLEN. I do agree that in deciding on the appropriate level of capital standards, we are weighing costs and benefits—the benefit of a lower probability of a financial crisis that has incredible high costs against the cost of slightly higher intermediation and borrowing costs. And as you indicated, Basel III was partly informed by the Basel Committee’s analysis of those costs and benefits, and the Federal Reserve participated in producing that analysis. And I think it did inform our views as to what a reasonable level of capital requirements would be. The Minneapolis Fed study that you mentioned also contains cost-benefit analysis and draws the line differently. Mr. ROYCE. From my standpoint, it seems to me that the Fed would be best suited to conduct the analysis and the research on VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00040 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 37 this. And as you are explaining here, we have such a range of opinion, although we agree on the basic concept here. So my question would be, short of us mandating the Fed to do it, would there be a way for you to try to move forward and approximate what that ratio should be? Mrs. YELLEN. Through different aspects of it. As I said, we did do cost-benefit analysis, and it informed our judgments at the time. You have referred several times to a leverage requirement— Mr. ROYCE. Right. Mrs. YELLEN. —and I think our understanding of the risks facing banks lead us to think that a simple leverage requirement would not be an adequate way to determine capital. In particular, a simple leverage requirement treats the risk associated with the U.S. Treasury and a junk bond identically, and we think that capital requirements need to be risk-sensitive with a leverage ratio serving as a backup— Mr. ROYCE. No, I understand. It might not be sufficient, but in terms of having it be a component, it seems to me that—well, there is another question I wanted to ask you, too, and that is yesterday you told Senator Crapo that the goal of bringing private capital back into the mortgage market is important and that you hope that if there are guarantees in the secondary mortgage market, that they would be recognized as priced appropriately. It is my understanding, then, that you believe that the pre-GSE model of private gains and public loses did not price the government backstop appropriately. Mrs. YELLEN. I think that is correct. Mr. ROYCE. Thank you. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentlelady from Ohio, Mrs. Beatty. Mrs. BEATTY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and Ranking Member Waters. And thank you so much for being here, Chair Yellen. In the form of me trying to be consistent with questions, I would like to repeat a question that was asked by me before. Certainly, as you know, I have a strong interest in making sure that we have equality and equity as it relates to employing women and minorities. So I want to start with first thanking you for responding in writing, and not only in writing but detail, to that question. I know in the Senate hearings that Senator Brown also posed some questions as we look at the Federal Reserve Bank and what is happening. I know we have a couple of openings since our last conversation here, but let me just say if there are any additional things for the first part—I have two questions—that hopefully you can share we are, if we are making any headway. Because I also pulled some facts, and according to the Fed Up campaign at the Center for Popular Democracy, it states that the board of directors was 83 percent White and 70 percent male. Under the Federal Reserve Act, the Board of Governors has the authority to appoint class C directors. Can you describe that process for appointing class C directors or give me any brief update on where we are? Because I am thinking about reintroducing my bill that was patterned after the Rooney Rule with the Beatty Rule, VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00041 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 38 that if there is an opening all we are asking is that you have a pool of candidates in there. Mrs. YELLEN. We are very focused on achieving diversity in our class C directors—more broadly, on the boards of directors of all of the Federal Reserve banks and their branches. We engage in ongoing at least yearly evaluations of the progress of the reserve banks in achieving diversity. We insist on recommendations from the reserve banks that will enhance diversity; make sure that there is adequate representation of women and of minorities; that we have sectoral diversity, as well; that consumers, labor, and nonprofits are represented. It is a constant focus and we give feedback to the banks to inform their search for directors. I do believe we have made progress on it and achieved greater diversity. I will say that it is a very high priority for us. Mrs. BEATTY. Thank you very much. Chair Yellen, I just learned that last month you did something which seems unique or different. The Federal Reserve held a teachers town hall meeting. And I thought that very interesting and very pleasing because financial literacy is something to which I have dedicated probably the last 2 decades of my career. And I am very pleased to say, Mr. Chairman, and Ranking Member Waters, that I have been appointed as the new co-Chair of the Financial and Economic Literacy Council, with my Republican colleague, Steve Stivers. Was there anything in this town hall that you can share as it relates to the financial literacy or it relates to something we should be looking at? And maybe this could be a bipartisan thread and we could get your staff to laugh or smile with that because it would be so positive that we would have a Democrat and a Republican working together. Mrs. YELLEN. Perhaps we can give you some more detailed feedback if that would be helpful. I mainly answered questions that a group of economics educators had for me about what they should be teaching their students about the Federal Reserve. I was asked about diversity in the economics profession and what could be done to foster diversity and shared some thoughts on that topic and why it is that perhaps women and minorities are not attracted into economics, even as a major in college, in the numbers that one would want and expect. But on financial literacy, maybe we can give you some more detailed feedback. Mrs. BEATTY. Okay. Thank you so much. Mr. Chairman, I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentlelady yields back. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from North Carolina, Mr. Pittenger. Mr. PITTENGER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Good afternoon, Chair Yellen. Chair Yellen, there has been much said today regarding the different economies, what is—I heard my good friend Mr. Meeks in his performance, and basically a diatribe of market-driven economies and lauding the highly regulatory policies of this last Administration. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00042 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 39 But in North Carolina, we kind of have a way of conveying this. It is like trying to dress up a pig and put perfume on it. It doesn’t really look as good as it is. The outcomes really reflect something different. He had mentioned that there had been 16 million jobs created from this economy. And when you look at 8 years, that is 200,000 jobs a month. So comparing that to the time that I lived in Washington back in the 1980s when Ronald Reagan was President, he inherited an economy that was very weak. There was 20 percent interest rates, high inflation, high unemployment. And after 2 years with an independent Fed, reduced regulatory burden, and reduced tax threshold, the economy grew and began to grow exponentially—300,000 then 400,000 and 500,000 jobs a month; 1 month a million jobs. And we were growing at one point at 6 percent growth. We look now at an economy that hasn’t even reached 3 percent economic growth, the only Administration since World War II that hasn’t been able to achieve that objective. I would say to you, Chair Yellen, given that and really the number of American people who are just living at the margins, just around the kitchen table, they are struggling. They came out in droves in this last election because they are upset. It hasn’t worked. Do you feel that there are different policies that should have been made in hindsight, that you missed something? In business, we have a way of assessing what we do right and what we do wrong. But have we missed the mark? Have we not—we clearly didn’t achieve the objectives that were intended. Low-income, minority people, frankly, that demographic group have moved the least up the economic ladder than any group in the country. And certainly that was a focus of the folks you were trying to help. So I would really like to get your analysis of what we missed. And is there something in our monetary policy we could have done differently? How about regulations and oversight? What would you do different today if you were given the chance? Mrs. YELLEN. I think that the trends that you described that have left so many Americans feeling frustrated with the labor market and their economic circumstances and success date back to well before the financial crisis, probably back to the mid-to late 1980s. And we saw the character and composition of jobs changing in the United States. Mr. PITTENGER. With all due respect, Chair Yellen, if I could interrupt, we don’t have a lot of time. This recession, the President, he was only in recession 2 months out of his 32 months. So, he had a chance. And these policies had a chance, and yet they didn’t work. I would like to ask you a couple of other things, though. Relative to community banks, you made the statement that you are concerned about what has happened with community banks in this country. In North Carolina, we have lost 40 percent of our banks since 2010. That is a major impact on our economy and access to capital and credit. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00043 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 40 Do you believe that there should have been or should be today— would you advise us to reduce the regulatory burden on these community banks? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. And I think we should be heavily focused on using every tool available to us to reduce regulatory burden on those banks. We ourselves and with other banking agencies have taken a number of important steps, and I think it is—and we will continue— Mr. PITTENGER. But you would advise the Congress to be fully engaged in trying to— Mrs. YELLEN. I would be, yes. Mr. PITTENGER. Yes, ma’am. Thank you very much. Chair Yellen, Secretary Lew argued that China has become, in his words, more adept at communicating its policy path in its analysis of its own economy, which will avoid confusion and instability in the global economy. Do you agree with Secretary Lew on his assessment of China? Mrs. YELLEN. I am not privy to all the detail that he may have given— Mr. PITTENGER. But in principle? Mrs. YELLEN. —on that. Mr. PITTENGER. The principle is there, the greater oversight, communicating policies. Do you think that is a healthy thing? Mrs. YELLEN. I do think it is a healthy thing, Mr. PITTENGER. In like manner, would you say that if it is true for China that it should be true also for our country, for our Fed, that maybe we could be more up front and the public could understand our policies? We have the FORM Act that lays out commonsense steps to achieve this, and I would just like to know your perspective on that. There are many Federal Reserve officers who concur, Nobel Peace Prize winners that agree, as well. Mrs. YELLEN. Transparency is an important objective, and we are always looking for additional steps. I think it has been improved. I think, as you know, I am not a supporter of the FORM Act that would chain the Fed to a simple rule. I think that would result in poor economic performance. And while understandability and predictability are important goals— Mr. PITTENGER. My time has expired, Chair Yellen. Mrs. YELLEN. —what matters most at the end of the day is economic performance— Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair will now call a recess of the committee for 10 minutes. Members are advised that we anticipate reconvening in 10 minutes. We intend on adjourning the hearing at approximately 2 o’clock and we anticipate one intervening vote series. The committee stands in recess. [recess] Chairman HENSARLING. The committee will come to order. Members are requested to take their seats. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Connecticut, Mr. Himes. Mr. HIMES. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00044 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 41 Chair Yellen, thank you for being with us today. I always appreciate your testimony and the very good work that is done and summarized in this report to us. I have a couple of questions for you, starting with, I want an opportunity just to sort of reflect on and maybe ask a question about the economic narrative that we are getting and that we have gotten for so long from the Majority. I was here 8 years ago, sworn-in, in a month when the economy lost almost three-quarters of a million jobs. We were handed—I think the technical economic term would be a ‘‘dumpster fire’’ of an economy, and took a number of measures, including the Recovery Act and then regulatory measures to stabilize the financial sector, which was on its knees. Every single one of those measures, of course, was opposed by my friends on the other side of the aisle. My question, though, is, we are now accused of—you are accused and we are accused, and I think we are probably properly accused of not doing enough to spur economic growth. The Fed certainly is. And we have heard that. Apparently, growth of 2 percent is not the 4 percent promised by President Trump. And apparently we could have done better. I guess my question to you is—my memory of economics is that economic growth in the end is a function of population growth and productivity growth. So I guess my question is—and I have looked at other industrialized countries’ OECD growth rates, and actually the growth of 1.9 percent over time is not inconsistent with other industrialized countries. So I wonder, as an economist, whether you agree that our growth rate has been in some way artificially held back or whether we are just sort of operating the way economies operate, growing at just below 2 percent? Mrs. YELLEN. When an economy suffers a deep recession and unemployment is very high, output is well below the economy’s potential, and it can grow more rapidly than the pace dictated by population or labor force and productivity. But once the economy is operating at its potential and unemployment is in the neighborhood of full employment, as it is now, then I would certainly agree that it is labor force growth and productivity that dictate the pace of growth. Unfortunately, that looks like it is a little bit under 2 percent for the U.S. economy. Labor force growth has slowed and productivity growth has been very disappointing. And to speed that up we would have to see an improvement in one or both of those things. Mr. HIMES. I have been reading these reports since I have been here, and the reports have always listed factors that have perhaps dampened growth. And I remember the housing hangover was cited some years ago, uncertainty, and issues of aggregate demand. This report has never highlighted regulation as a material—and I do mean material; I understand that overregulation can, in fact, have a quashing result—but this report has never cited regulation as a material factor in dampening U.S. growth. Is it the opinion of the economists at the Federal Reserve that regulation has really been a material brake on the U.S. economy in the last 8 years? VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00045 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 42 Mrs. YELLEN. Investment spending has been quite low, and we have tried to understand what some of the factors are that are responsible for it. Businesses in surveys do cite regulation, taxes, and uncertainty as factors that are holding back investment. So we understand it could be contributing to slow growth in investment spending, but there are also other factors, namely the economic growth overall has been slow, sales growth for those firms have been slow, and that, I think, has been important as well. Mr. HIMES. Thank you. Last question, I don’t have a lot of time. I am a big believer in preserving monetary independence or independence for the monetary authorities. You have been vocal on this, most notably in your letter of November of 2015. I wonder, in my remaining time can you talk a little bit about some of the initiatives—Audit the Fed, the FORM Act in particular, GAO access to the Fed? Do you think that these initiatives could over time compromise the independence of the FOMC and of our monetary policy? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes, I do. And this goes beyond the issue of a rule in the FORM Act. It goes to asking the GAO to come in on a realtime basis and make policy judgments that would second guess the decisions of the FOMC. I think that involves very detailed intervention in monetary policymaking the compromises independence, and I think central banks all over the world have recognized that an independent central bank that can focus on the long-run health of the economy, maintaining low and stable inflation and steady employment growth, gives rise to a better economic environment and has been— Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Florida, Mr. Ross. Mr. ROSS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, it’s good to see you again. And I want to put in a word, as I have done in the past, with you concerning the momand-pops, the fixed-income people who have really suffered a lot in their savings and eating into principal. And I am hoping that monetary policy will be such that they will have an opportunity that they can survive again and not just those on Wall Street. My question to you is, and following up on my colleague, Mr. Himes, in the FORM Act we passed, the Centennial Monetary Commission Act, which I am sure you are familiar with. It was Chairman Brady’s idea to have the commission to overlook oversight of the Fed. In fact, the committee would highlight opportunities for improvement. Given our economy’s somewhat unconventional and anemic recovery over the last 6 years, would you agree that it might be a nice idea to have such a commission as a centennial commission for oversight? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t think such a commission is needed. It is, of course, up to Congress to decide if you want to look at the structure of the Federal Reserve, but my own assessment is that the Federal Reserve has performed well. We have adapted to changes and— Mr. ROSS. And if they have there is nothing really to be concerned about an independent commission reviewing. If you have set VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00046 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 43 the Fed on the path that you have chosen, then I think that this would just confirm your suspicions that you are on the right path, would it not? Mrs. YELLEN. It is a decision that is up to Congress if you want to make that. I would urge you to decide what the problem is that needs to be addressed, and I believe we have a structure that works well. It was one that was decided on by Congress, and I think we have adapted to changes in the economy over 100 years. So our structure is not broken, but it is— Mr. ROSS. So you don’t think it is a good idea to have an extra pair of eyes, just to see? Mrs. YELLEN. We have lots of pairs of eyes and lots of— Mr. ROSS. How far they can see— Mrs. YELLEN. —analysts all over who are looking at the Fed structure, and it is not a topic that hasn’t received a great deal of attention. Mr. ROSS. Yet. Let me move on to another topic with regard to State insurance regulation. Despite its proven track record, our State-based insurance regulatory structure has faced many challenges in recent years, especially with dealing with the IAIS and international standards. Today, we are faced with potentially more intrusion in insurance regulation by the Federal and international financial regulators. With your engagement in international negotiations, I have just a few questions. One, would you agree that our State-based form of regulation in insurance, risk-based capital, is probably doing its job and is doing a good job? Mrs. YELLEN. State-based regulation is very important. Its focus has always been on protecting policy holders, which is one important focus— Mr. ROSS. In fact, we have probably, I think, what is recognized as the best system of regulation in the insurance industry through our State-based programs. Would you agree? Mrs. YELLEN. I think those programs have been successful. But we certainly saw in the financial crisis that we had a large insurance company that was heavily involved in capital market activities that were a source of systemic risks. And I do think— Mr. ROSS. And that was a federally regulated subsidiary of AIG, though, that had that problem, and not necessarily State—we have never seen a run on insurance companies, so I guess that is my concern, because we have a good system in place. And with that in mind, you have a seat at the table of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors and the Financial Stability Board. Are you now working with State regulators, insurance regulators, commissioners to develop a consensus before entering into negotiations on an international basis? Mrs. YELLEN. They all participate in that forum, as we do, and our participants meet and confer with them and try to understand what is in the interest of U.S. insurance firms and to try to influence— VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00047 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 44 Mr. ROSS. And I would hope that you take the position as an advocate on behalf of our insurance regulation system. Mrs. YELLEN. We are always trying to see other countries establish regulatory frameworks— Mr. ROSS. Similar to ours? Mrs. YELLEN. —that will be consistent with ours and result in strong regulation, but a level playing field for our firms. Mr. ROSS. Thank you, Chair Yellen. I appreciate that. And I yield back. Thank you. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentleman yields back. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Maryland, Mr. Delaney. Mr. DELANEY. Thank you, Chair Yellen, for being here and for your wonderful service to the country. Mrs. YELLEN. Thank you. Mr. DELANEY. I have three questions. I will try to get them out all up front so you can think about them. The first is, if policies coming out of Washington across this next several years fall into the category of protectionist by nature, putting through unpaid-for tax reductions that increase the deficit and foreign policy that might cause foreign investors to recalibrate down their investment in the United States, how much of an impact—negative impact—do you think that will be on long-term economic growth? That is my first question. My second question is about the labor market. Do you think the biggest issue in the labor market is employment, or jobs, or is it pay? What is the real structural problem with the labor market right now? Is there not enough jobs or is the pay not good enough, in your opinion? And my third question is, as you think about the Fed balance sheet and running off the mortgage investments that you have, has there been discussions within the Fed about considering other asset classes, such as infrastructure asset classes, if eligible bonds were to be created that perhaps the Fed could invest in? So those would be my three questions. Mrs. YELLEN. Your first question pertained to protectionism, the deficit in capital flows and what impact they would have on growth? Mr. DELANEY. Yes. Mrs. YELLEN. And honestly, without knowing more about the details of the policies it is really difficult for me to render a judgment. In general, we understand that many different economic policy shifts are under consideration, that they may well affect economic growth, inflation, have repercussions for our policy stance. But without knowing something more about the timing, composition, and details of those changes, I honestly can’t—there are many different effects both positive and negative. On labor, in some sense I think we have enough jobs, and that is what a 4.8 percent unemployment rate tells you is we have created a lot of jobs, but pay in real terms is not rising rapidly. And the composition of those jobs over many decades and even more recently continues to shift in ways that are leaving particular classes of workers disadvantaged. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00048 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 45 Mr. DELANEY. So if I could, Chair Yellen, this is my view, that we have more of a pay issue than a jobs issue, and when you look at what is happening to the labor market, particularly the effect of technological innovation, do you see this pay issue being a persistent enduring issue that we really do need to think differently about? Mrs. YELLEN. We have had very slow growth in real income. And going back to the late 1980s, the bottom—probably the bottom half of the income distribution in terms of pay have seen no real wage increases. Disproportionate gains have gone to those at the high end of the income distribution. That goes to the composition of jobs and the trends that different jobs have in terms of pay, and I think it is a serious problem and what we are hearing from dissatisfied Americans. Mr. DELANEY. And then as it relates to the Fed’s balance sheet, which you don’t really need to shrink theoretically. You are not structured like a normal bank, and as you run off your mortgage investments in your current portfolio have you thought about other asset classes for the Fed to invest in that might be more— Mrs. YELLEN. We are restricted to Treasury and agency debt. We have not— Mr. DELANEY. Have you ever discussed internally what other investments might allow you to pursue your mandate? Mrs. YELLEN. I have mentioned that other central banks have broader authority to purchase different assets and have sometimes used that authority. We have not. We are not asking for that authority. I have said that if Congress were to ever to consider changing that authority there would be both costs and benefits to consider. So I do want to be clear, it is not something the FOMC is looking— Mr. DELANEY. Has it been successful in other countries, do you think? Mrs. YELLEN. Excuse me? Mr. DELANEY. Has it been a successful policy in other countries that have done it, pursued it? Mrs. YELLEN. I have not seen detailed studies, but arguably yes, it may have been. These are only policies that are used in exceptionally difficult times. It is not normal monetary policy in countries like Japan or the euro area that have used it—have done it in times that called for exceptional monetary policy accommodation. Mr. DELANEY. Great. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Oklahoma, Mr. Lucas. Mr. LUCAS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, I, probably along with maybe a half a dozen of my colleagues here, date back to the old days of when this was the Banking and Urban Affairs Committee. And we used to have these great glorious discussions about Karl Marx and Adam Smith. It was just awesome in the old days. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00049 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 46 But you know, it has always been my policy to try and focus on the issues that have a direct impact on the constituents and the people I serve back home. So in that spirit, I would like to ask you a question, and if you can answer it I would be most appreciative. I would like to turn to the Fed’s role in uncleared swaps markets for a moment since Dodd-Frank had an effect on that above and beyond the jurisdiction of the committee, but also the Financial Services Committee. On March 1st of this year, participants in that market will be required to post variable margin with each other. Updating those existing swap agreements for these variable margins involve a complicated process according to market participants. It takes a lot of time. I saw a figure that only 0.16 percent, less than two-tenths of a percent, of all swap agreements have been updated to meet these various margin requirements. And that is with a deadline only 2 weeks away. That instability concerns me because many of the smaller end users enter in the swaps markets to legitimately hedge against the market and thus confronting these legal puzzles with few resources. Turning to your role in this process, 2 days ago the CFTC instituted a temporary grace period, and under that relief, market participants affected by these requirements have a 6-month period for compliance. They must be ready by September 1st. In addition, regulators in Asia have provided a similar grace period and the European regulators, it seems, have stated they are open to similar wiggle room on the March 1st deadline. With all of that, can you share with me whether the Fed intends to coordinate with the CFTC on providing relief to entities under its jurisdiction that are a part of this market? Mrs. YELLEN. We are aware of the problems that you describe. We have been monitoring trends in compliance very closely. We are in touch with some of the firms that are involved, and we will be in discussions with other banking regulators to discuss what response may be needed to this. Mr. LUCAS. But it is being analyzed that the circumstances are evolving as they are and the potential impact on the participants. From my perspective, it is those end users that matter to me. And I guess I would have to say thank you for taking that note, and I hope, like the CFTC and the Asian regulators and perhaps our European friends, we will see a similar response. With that, I think, Mr. Chairman, in the brevity I will yield back the balance of my time. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentleman yields back. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Washington, Mr. Heck. Mr. HECK. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, thank you so much for being here. Let’s talk housing. Often—in fact I would say usually—the housing market is kind of the big swing industry in the economy. In recessions you cut interest rates and that leads more people to buy homes, developers cut ground, building trades hire up to engage in all of that. The people who buy the homes go into the local Lowe’s VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00050 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 47 and buy furniture or whatever, and it usually has a materially stimulative effect on the economy. Not this time, certainly compared to the past. Housing starts are now the same they were at the depth of the 2001 recession; and in fact, they are near where they were at the bottom of the great savings and loan crisis about a quarter of a century ago. So my question is, Chair Yellen, as you raise rates do you worry about choking off an already weak housing recovery, or do you think housing is just less sensitive to interest rates than it was pre-bubble? Mrs. YELLEN. I think there is still sensitivity there of housing to interest rates. And of course, this was a very different cycle in which it was housing-related problems that were part and parcel of the crisis. And so when we cut rates we didn’t get the usual response that you would have of housing quickly responding positively to the rate cut. So, as I mentioned in my testimony, higher interest rates—and mortgage rates have gone up some over the last several months— may play a retarding role in restricting the recovery of housing. But the other positive side of it is we have good employment growth, income growth; consumer spending is solid; house prices have been rising. And all of those are positives. So on balance, we have seen a very slow but continued recovery in housing, and I would expect that to continue even in the context of somewhat rising mortgage rates. And they are very low, by historic standards. Mr. HECK. So you mentioned wages in passing. I will mention before I ask my next question, wages have ticked up in growth, but only to about 2.5 percent. The last recovery, they were at 4 percent. I think America is still wanting to know when they are going to get a raise, but that is not my question. One of the things about the housing market that I find really confusing is that prices seem to be rising in markets all over the country. In many cities they have even eclipsed where they were before the bubble. In the Chair’s home State, where, frankly, some would characterize land as infinite and home prices have historically always followed inflation, we are now seeing significant real increases. It used to be that markets would more quickly balance supply with demand, and now they seem to have sustained imbalances. Prices keep rising. I am privileged to chair a task force that is going to take a look at this more closely, and I am really interested in your perspective. My basic question is why are we seeing such weak home construction, despite the fact that we have rising prices? Mrs. YELLEN. That has been a surprise as well, why construction remains so weak with house prices— Mr. HECK. And the answer is? Mrs. YELLEN. We do have robust growth in multifamily. Many young people, millennials, are delaying buying homes, and I think that has impacted single-family construction. We have seen very depressed pace of household formation, a remarkably large fraction of young people who continue to live with their families. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00051 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 48 And even as the economy has recovered, household formation has remained quite depressed for reasons that are difficult to understand. Mr. HECK. You seem to be implying that they are—they want to be living in the basement, as opposed to they are unable to get out of the basement. Mrs. YELLEN. We have seen that continue even as the job market has strengthened and unemployment rates have come way, way down. So it is historically low. From builders we hear about shortage of workers, their skilled workers, and buildable lots. And there may be some supply issues there, as well. Mr. HECK. I yield back, Mr. Chairman. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Illinois, Mr. Hultgren. Mr. HULTGREN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Chair Yellen. I appreciate you being here today. I know we are in agreement on the need to prevent bailouts of our Nation’s financial institutions from ever happening again. However, the Fed has implemented some controversial policies that I am concerned may have some unintended consequences that, in fact, could increase systemic risk. AEI Resident Scholar Paul Kupiec has noted that coordinated supervisory stress tests encourage a group-think approach to risk management that may increase the probability of a financial crisis. If the systemically important banks are all following the same capital requirements, and they all are being tested against the same stress scenarios, then isn’t the Fed creating a herd of banks that can easily be pushed off the cliff? Don’t we want a mechanism that is truly capable of increasing financial resilience, such as real-market discipline? Mrs. YELLEN. I haven’t read Paul’s work, but I think that is an issue. We don’t want group-think in management of risk at banks. We want banks to be focused on understanding their own idiosyncratic risks and modeling it. And one reason to avoid what we would refer to as a model mono-culture, which is this sort of herd approach, we have consistently resisted sharing with the banks subject to stress tests our models. One consideration, gaming it is changing their portfolios so that they look good on our models is one reason— Mr. HULTGREN. I want to ask you about that quickly, if I could. Mrs. YELLEN. —but we want to make sure that they don’t all say, ‘‘Okay, this is the way to manage your risk.’’ We want them to develop their own models. Mr. HULTGREN. Yes. Governor Tarullo has emphasized that the Fed does not want banks to game the model, as you say, for Fed stress tests. Can you give us an example of how a bank would game a stress test? Mrs. YELLEN. Understanding what the particular areas of risk and scenarios might look like and how we would evaluate them in our models could induce banks to understand that they could make portfolio changes that would enable them to fare better. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00052 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 49 Mr. HULTGREN. I guess, following up on that some more, if banks were able to game the Fed’s stress test, wouldn’t they have to change their risk profile in a manner that addresses the very concerns that you and your colleagues have about systemic risk? And don’t you want them to make chose changes? Mrs. YELLEN. No, not necessarily, because banks have their own individual sources of risk. Mr. HULTGREN. It seems ironic to me. It would seem transparency in how stress tests are designed would help you achieve your objective while at the same time reducing regulatory costs. Since the enhanced supervisory framework of financial institutions was put in place, what analysis, if any, has the Fed done to determine if the increased compliance costs to financial institutions is commensurate with the risk? And how about an analysis on the ability of these banks to provide access to credit? Mrs. YELLEN. Are you talking about with the stress tests? Mr. HULTGREN. Right. Mrs. YELLEN. We have completed a 5-year review of our stress tests. The GAO has also done a review of our stress testing methodology. And, as was noted earlier today, we recently finalized a rule that takes over 20 smaller institutions and exempts them from the qualitative portion of our program. We did conclude that the regulatory burden exceeded the benefits and changed our rule to diminish regulatory burden in what I think is a significant and responsive way. Mr. HULTGREN. Earlier in the hearing today, you said that the Fed is thinking about incorporating a G-SIB surcharge in CCAR before Governor Tarullo departs. A new Vice Chair for Supervision nomination is likely weeks away, so why is the Fed moving ahead on these changes before the nomination and confirmation of this individual? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t know what the timing is going to be of those changes. I think we would want to make sure that we had notice out and an ability to finalize such changes probably before our 2018 stress tests go into effect. We look forward the appointment of a Vice Chair. If we go at it with the— Mr. HULTGREN. I think it makes sense to hold off some, just— Mrs. YELLEN. —with the notice of proposed rulemaking— Mr. HULTGREN. I have 20 seconds left. Let me ask one more, quickly. There are currently three White House orders affecting potential new rulemakings. Additionally, last year the GAO found deficiencies with stress testing already affecting growth. Do you agree that the Fed should act cautiously regarding any CCAR changes? Mrs. YELLEN. I’m sorry. What? Mr. HULTGREN. Do you agree that the Fed should act cautiously regarding any CCAR changes? Mrs. YELLEN. In line with GAO recommendations, did you say? Mr. HULTGREN. Last year, the GAO—my time has expired. We will follow up with a letter. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. I wish to inform Members that votes are currently pending on the Floor. I anticipate clearing two more Members, having a brief VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00053 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 50 recess, and then reconvening. Members are encouraged to come back promptly after votes. The gentleman from Pennsylvania, Mr. Rothfus, is recognized. Mr. ROTHFUS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, last year I asked you about the custody banks and their concerns about the supplementary leverage ratio. As you acknowledged, these institutions face unique challenges in meeting requirements like the SLR. Former Governor Tarullo has made similar statements acknowledging the problem. At a conference in December he stated that, ‘‘As part of our efforts to tailor our regulations according to the business models of firms we are considering ways to address the special issues posed for the large custody banks by certain elements of our regulatory framework.’’ I appreciate the Fed’s understanding of the unique regulatory issues custody banks face, and I would like to continue to work with you on the issue. Can you tell me what progress the Fed has made on addressing this issue over the last year? Mrs. YELLEN. I can’t give you details but I can tell you that we have continued to engage in conversation with those banks to try to understand in detail the issues they face and possible strategies that they or we could undertake to mitigate some of those burdens. Mr. ROTHFUS. Thank you. Mrs. YELLEN. I promise we will continue to work with them. Mr. ROTHFUS. Thank you. As you know, the President recently issued the Executive Order laying out core principles for regulating the U.S. financial system. This order includes a list with the following core principles: enable American companies to be competitive with foreign firms in domestic and foreign markets; and advance American interests in international financial regulatory negotiations and meetings. When Senator Crapo asked you about the core principles yesterday you expressed support, saying, ‘‘I certainly do agree with the core principles. They enunciate very important goals for our financial system and for supervision and regulation of it, and I look forward to working with the Treasury Secretary and other members of FSOC to engage in this review.’’ I appreciate your support for the principles, but I would like to get a better understanding of how you foresee the Fed putting them into action. Specifically, how should the United States alter its approach to international insurance regulatory discussions in response to these core principles? Mrs. YELLEN. We have been involved with State regulators, the NAIC, the Federal Insurance Office, and others in international— Mr. ROTHFUS. What about with designating G-SIBs? Would allowing a firm that is not a SIFI in the United States to be designated as a global systemically important insurer be consistent with American interests? Mrs. YELLEN. Our designation of firms for special supervision for SIFI status in the United States takes account of their threats to U.S. financial stability. In foreign countries where those firms operate, the regulators are also concerned about their impact on financial stability in their countries. And the two perspectives may not always line up. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00054 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 51 Mr. ROTHFUS. You testified earlier today that the FORM Act would ‘‘chain the Fed to a simple rule.’’ But the FORM Act permits the Fed to deviate from the rule, does it not? Mrs. YELLEN. Every deviation involves review by GAO of our decision-making— Mr. ROTHFUS. Wouldn’t every deviation, though, provide an opportunity to educate the American people and Members of Congress as to what you are doing? Mrs. YELLEN. I believe it is important to provide that education, and I try to do so in my testimony, and press conferences, and our minutes, and our monetary policy report. Mr. ROTHFUS. And you could do that to explain your deviation from the rule. Because right now we are looking at the policy over the last 6, 7, 8 years, and it is like, I blew up the balance sheet, and all I got was 6 years of substandard growth. Mrs. YELLEN. I am prepared to explain our policies. And as I have said previously, we routinely look at rules as useful guidelines. I recently gave a speech just a few weeks ago at Stanford where I explained in detail—I would really recommend it to you— reasons why the recommendations of some simple rules would not have been a good guide for us over the last several years or currently. Mr. ROTHFUS. But you would still be permitted to deviate from them. Mrs. YELLEN. I think that bringing GAO into routine real-time reviews of our policy decisions simply compromises the independence of monetary policy. Mr. ROTHFUS. Let me shift gears a little bit. The CFPB receives its funding from the Fed, correct? Mrs. YELLEN. I’m sorry? Mr. ROTHFUS. The CFPB receives its funding from the Fed? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. Mr. ROTHFUS. Does the Fed have any oversight responsibility for the CFPB? Mrs. YELLEN. No. Mr. ROTHFUS. Has the Fed ever denied a disbursement request for the CFPB? Mrs. YELLEN. No. Mr. ROTHFUS. I guess I am running out of time, but you talked about the 2 percent target for inflation. And we talked a little bit about some financial literacy; you had a teachers’ town hall. I am curious, do teachers in financial literacy teach that a pound of ground beef at $6 is going to cost $6.60 in 5 years, or a gallon of milk that costs $4 now is going to cost $4.40 in 5 years if you hit that target? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t know what— Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. Mr. ROTHFUS. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Colorado, Mr. Tipton. Mr. TIPTON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, thank you for taking the time to be here. When we previously had an opportunity to be able to visit you had cited in the past that you recognize the trickle-down effect of VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00055 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 52 regulations that are going on. And I have a primary concern of community banks. And I believe we share—you believe that community banks are important for the economic health of the country? Mrs. YELLEN. I do. Mr. TIPTON. And in recognizing that, and in view of your past statements, I will speak actually to my colleague, Mr. Himes’, comment when he was referring to your report. He had noted that he is concerned that you are not addressing or you have not addressed regulatory burden in regards to your report. You had recently had a meeting in St. Louis, I believe in September, being able to meet with a variety of people in the banking industry, and they had cited and discussed with you at this conference the number one reason for community banks to stop offering some products was an ongoing concern of the regulatory burden. So I guess my question to you is, you have stated to us in the past that you recognize the trickle-down effect. You have heard from community bankers that you cite or is important to our economy and the country. What is the Fed doing to actually help resolve some of the challenges that they face? Mrs. YELLEN. We have taken many steps that I think—based on my regular meetings with community bankers—they see as quite positive. We are coming into many banks less frequently, extending exam cycles. We have heard from them that having large groups of examiners on their premises for long periods of time is burdensome, and so we are giving them the opportunity to let us do much more work off site. We are risk-focusing our exams so that for well-managed, well-capitalized firms, we are spending less time and focusing on real sources of risk to those banks. We are reducing the frequency of consumer compliance exams for well-run and well-managed banks. We have gone through the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act (EGRPRA) process. There are a number of changes that are going to come out of that that will simplify burden. We are looking at reducing— Mr. TIPTON. If I may, since we are going to run out—and I appreciate the extensive list that you are putting out, but I have to be able to actually look at the results. When we go back to the September meeting that you had had with community bankers, they are still citing regulatory compliance. I just received an e-mail yesterday from a small bank on the western side of Colorado. And going a little bit to your unemployment numbers, I guess the good news is they created three jobs. The bad news is for that small community bank, it is all in compliance. So are we really seeing the results for the community banks in terms of everything that you were just citing? We continue to hear out of our community banks it is regulatory burden that is inhibiting their ability to be able to provide the liquidity, to be able to grow the communities, and to be able to create jobs. Mrs. YELLEN. Community banks labor under a number of burdens, not all of which reflect compliance burden. But I think that if you— Mr. TIPTON. But it is the number one thing that they cite to us. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00056 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 53 Mrs. YELLEN. We do meet regularly with a council, so-called CDIAC, community development, community banks, and discuss with them how they experience our supervision. And I would say— Mr. TIPTON. Can we look at maybe just some outcomes? How many new bank charters were requested last year? Mrs. YELLEN. There are virtually no new bank charters. Mr. TIPTON. No new bank charters. How many consolidations were there? Mrs. YELLEN. There are a lot. They are a fundamental— Mr. TIPTON. How many shut down? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t know the numbers of how many shut down. Mr. TIPTON. I know that you understand the problem. I guess what I am questioning is, are the results actually yielding the desired result? We have the lowest labor participation rate in this country in decades. We have more small businesses that are shutting down. You had cited that NFIB report, hey, they aren’t really even asking for loans. But you cited earlier today that they are looking for alternative methods, going to second mortgages on homes, to be able to get a loan out of the bank. So is this impacting the economy, job creation, and the overall health for rural America, which is of deep concern to me? Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The committee stands in recess. [recess] Chairman HENSARLING. The committee will come to order. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Texas, Mr. Williams. Mr. WILLIAMS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Chair Yellen, for your testimony this morning. Mr. Chairman, before I begin my questioning I wanted to briefly discuss Chair Yellen’s testimony from yesterday’s Senate Banking hearing and some comments by Senator Elizabeth Warren, whom, I might add, must live in a different business climate environment than I do; and also, for the record, remind my colleague on the other side that when we talk about hitting homeruns out of Fenway Park, the fences are very short in Fenway Park. [laughter] Senator Warren, in an exchange with you, Chair Yellen, noted that, ‘‘Our banks have thrived since we passed Dodd-Frank. Both big banks and community banks are literally making record profits.’’ Now, Chair Yellen, while I don’t know about the big banks and their record profits, what I do know is this: I am a Main Street America guy; I am a small business owner. Main Street America is hurting. Community financial institutions are hurting. And they both see no relief in sight. So I would be interested to hear what Texas community bankers would say to Senator Warren’s comments. I would also like to know what Senator Warren would say to the 126 banks in my home State of Texas that have closed since 2010. What would she say to the community bankers who have, since 2007, been hit with over 150 new regulations with over 100 rules still to be considered? VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00057 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 54 In fact, every time a rule is changed these same community financial institutions incur a cost. Even the simplest change can cost thousands of dollars and hundreds of man-hours to comply with. Sure, some community financial institutions have consolidated to survive, swallowed by the larger banks. But others have not been so lucky. According to the FDIC, more than 1,200 counties in the United States, encompassing 16.3 million people, would have limited physical access to Main Street banking without a presence of a community bank. As someone who represents a large rural district in Texas, that is a large section of my constituency. So, Chair Yellen, while I do not expect my colleague from Massachusetts to understand Main Street America’s burdens, I truly hope that you do understand those, that the position of many of these community banks, financial institutions find themselves in, and that you stay true to your word in finding a way to provide meaningful relief. Now, I want to briefly go back and touch on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. You seem to have indicated yesterday that the Fed was in no hurry to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet, and you said that today. So following up on some questions from Mr. Barr, we have heard a lot of talk the last couple of days from you and others on the strength of the economy and, again, how banks are making record profits, but you also stated that the Fed wouldn’t reduce the balance sheet until it has confidence the economy is on a solid course. So I guess my question to you is, which is it? And if our economy is headed in the right direction, as you have said, why wouldn’t the Fed reduce its balance sheet? So my question would be, what is stopping the Fed from naturally winding down its balance sheet, let alone offering a clear and credible strategy for doing so? Mrs. YELLEN. I think the economy is doing well, but it has required a highly accommodative policy from the Fed to accomplish that. So our overnight Federal funds rate at 50 to 75 basis points remains quite low. If the economy were to now be hit by a negative shock—not something I expect, but we have to prepare for—we would not have a great deal of scope to support the economy by cutting that overnight rate. My colleagues and I have said we want to wait to start running off our balance sheet until normalization is well under way. That means we would like to have a bit more buffer room to cut our overnight rate in the event that there is a negative shock because once we start running off the balance sheet it creates some drag, and we want to make sure that the economy is robust enough and we have enough policy space. Mr. WILLIAMS. My next question is, in terms of opportunities that American households have gone without during this lackluster recovery, does the Fed’s oversized and distortionary balance sheet, as well as the uncertainty that follows from the lack of a credible exit plan, create an unacceptable economic risk? And should it? Mrs. YELLEN. What do you mean by economic risk from our balance sheet? We added to our balance sheet to push down interest rates and spur spending to ease financial conditions at a time when the economy was very weak, and it has strengthened substantially. And I think we have made a contribution to that, so I don’t think VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00058 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 55 that is a significant risk. And we have indicated that we intend to contract our balance sheet substantially, but in a gradual way that is not risky. Mr. WILLIAMS. Okay. Thank you. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Maine, Mr. Poliquin. Mr. POLIQUIN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, very much. And thank you very much, Chair Yellen, for being here. You know, we got about 2 feet of snow, Chair Yellen, in Maine on Monday, and we have another 2 or 3 feet coming this weekend, so if you haven’t made your vacation plans for the great State of Maine, this is something you ought to consider, especially since it was Valentine’s Day yesterday, and I am sure your husband would love to go up there with you, and we need the business. Mrs. YELLEN. I am sure. Thank you for the invitation. Mr. POLIQUIN. Yes, ma’am. Chair Yellen, across my district and across America we have been very concerned about the weakest economy we have had in decades—and the recovery, I should say. The GDP is growing at about 1.5 percent roughly instead of 3, which has been the average. Folks are living paycheck to paycheck in my district. They are having a hard time saving. Millions of folks have just given up looking for work. And earlier in this hearing I remember, in response to a question from Mr. Huizenga, I believe what you said is that our labor participation rate has been so high because there are so many people who are aging out of the workforce. Well, let me tell you a little story if I may, Chair Yellen, with all due respect. Mrs. YELLEN. It has been falling for that reason. Mr. POLIQUIN. I beg your pardon. A few months ago I was at a shoemaker in Lewiston, Quoddy Shoes, one of the greatest shoemakers still left in America, and I ran into a fellow who was working part time, at 80 years old—80 years old and he is making shoes. And he was very concerned about running out of money before he runs out of time. Now, I happen to think, Chair Yellen, that we ought to do everything we can to grow this economy because that is just not fair and it is not right. Now, I am sure you look at the same data we do. In December we saw that consumer confidence was at a 15-year high. Now, I know it ticked down a little bit in January, but it was at a 15-year high. Business confidence is at about a 2-year high. And so this is all good when people are buying and businesses are investing and creating jobs, and we have more opportunity for our families. And I talk to job creators all the time. That has been my background. And I will tell you why they are so confident is because they are no longer worried about another layer of regulations and taxes falling on their shoulders that is making it hard for them to succeed and create jobs. So can’t we agree, Chair Yellen, that this overregulation that we have seen in this economy for the past 7 or 8 years has been stifling growth and opportunity? VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00059 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 56 Mrs. YELLEN. We even noted in our FOMC statement the pickup we have seen in recent months in business and consumer confidence. That is very real and— Mr. POLIQUIN. Would you attribute that in part to overregulation or going in a different direction now? Less regulations, lower taxes, more confidence, more spending, more jobs. Mrs. YELLEN. I think we should do everything we can to relieve regulatory burden, and I pledge to do so and to focus intensely with it to work with the new Administration. Mr. POLIQUIN. Thank you for that. I noticed yesterday in front of the Senate you mentioned that you were very supportive of adjusting financial regulations, especially for small community banks, and I am thrilled about that. But you know, it is not only the financial regulations that you folks are responsible for that permeate our economy, but it is also regulations at the EPA. For example, we have a great paper mill in Skowhegan with 850 jobs, and they are worried about biomass energy being carbon neutral or not and the additional regulations that come with it. So it is in all different sectors of the economy, Chair Yellen. During your June 22nd testimony, when a question was asked of you by Representative Barr about the economy being underperforming, your response was, ‘‘Our growth has been disappointing. I am not sure of the reason why.’’ Now, can’t we agree here today that part of the reason is overregulation and that you and everybody else in a position of influence in this town can support what is going on now, which is less regulation, more jobs? Mrs. YELLEN. Productivity growth has been quite weak for the last 6 years, and even going back before the financial crisis. It seems as though there has been a step down in the pace of productivity growth. It is not only something that we have seen in the aftermath of the crisis. So I think there may be deeper trends there that are depressing productivity growth than just regulations. Mr. POLIQUIN. Let me shift gears a little bit in my remaining time, Chair Yellen. We now have almost $20 trillion in debt. The interest payments on that debt with rates at a historic low are about $240 billion a year, which is about twice what we spend on veterans’ benefits. Do you think, Chair Yellen, if this town can ever get its spending act together, balance the books, and start paying down the debt, it will give us additional confidence in the business community and among our consumers, which will lead to a growing economy and more jobs? Mrs. YELLEN. I am not sure what the bottom line would be, but we have had a looming problem of an unsustainable— Mr. POLIQUIN. Do you think if we are able to balance our books, ma’am, and start paying down our debt, that would help our economy grow? Mrs. YELLEN. It could. Mr. POLIQUIN. Thank you very much. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00060 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 57 As the Chair advised Members earlier, we plan to adjourn this hearing in approximately 30 minutes. If any Member wishes to utilize less than their 5 minutes of allotted time, I am sure other people farther down the dais would be appreciative. The Chair now recognizes the gentlelady from Utah, Mrs. Love. Mrs. LOVE. Thank you, Chair Yellen, and thank you for being here today. I always find myself pinching myself whenever we are in a hearing with you because of the importance of what we are doing here. And so I want you to know how sincere I am with respect to the questions and the answers that we get here. So thank you for being here. Mrs. YELLEN. Thank you. Mrs. LOVE. In creating the Federal Reserve in 1913, Congress charged the new central bank with the authority to set monetary policy, with the objective of ensuring price stability—that is, avoiding inflation that could undermine economic growth. In 1978 the Humphrey Hawkins Act expanded the Fed’s mandate to include goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. And of course, along with its responsibilities over monetary policy, the Fed also enjoys very significant powers and responsibilities with regards to bank supervision and now also systemic stability. This array of powers has left Congress, the markets, and the public looking to the Fed for progress and assurance on nearly every conceivable topic having to do with the Nation’s financial and economic well-being. So just listening to the range of questions that you have been asked and the Humphrey Hawkins hearing shows that it is true, including questions about topics like income inequality with African-American unemployment. This is my question to you: Do you agree with my observations in how much the Fed is doing, along with Representative Barr’s observations and his testimony, to the extent in which Congress is looking to the Fed for answers and guidance? Mrs. YELLEN. I do see that and we have, as you pointed out, a huge range of important responsibilities which we try to carry out as best we can. It is also important for you to understand that there are limits on what we can do. We are not able to address every problem. If there is slow productivity growth in the United States, that is not something that the Fed has much ability to address. Mrs. LOVE. Do you think— Mrs. YELLEN. If there is income inequality, or the composition of jobs has changed in an adverse way— Mrs. LOVE. I get it. Okay, do you think that we are looking to the Fed for too much, in your opinion? Mrs. YELLEN. Sometimes I do feel that, yes. Mrs. LOVE. If so, how do you think we can pare down our expectations of the Federal Reserve? Mrs. YELLEN. You have set forth your expectations in legislation very clearly and you described them. You said our responsibility for monetary policy is stable prices, maximum employment, and moderate long-term interest rates— VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00061 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 58 Mrs. LOVE. Do you think that there is room here to pare down or to eliminate the dual mandate that is set on— Mrs. YELLEN. No, I don’t think that would be a good idea. Those two goals of maximum employment and stable prices are rarely in conflict— Mrs. LOVE. Okay. So we talked about a couple of things. One of the things that we have talked about was our regulation and the regulatory burdens. Here is my problem: In April of 2011, the Fed predicted a 3.25 percent real annual growth rate. Actual real GDP growth rate for that year was 1.6 percent, according to official BEA data. Fed forecasts for 2012 and 2013 were both close to 4 percent. Actual for 2012 was 2.2 percent; 2013 fell even further short of original predictions. I can go on and on. Annual growth came in far less, at 1.9 percent in 2016, when it was predicted at 3 percent. So I am asking if you think—do you think that these numbers underscore the failures of unconventional policies to try and deliver expected results? Is there too much going on? Is there a way that through both paring down the dual mandate and also paring down regulations that we can actually bring that growth rate up? Mrs. YELLEN. Our unemployment rate forecasts prove much closer to being accurate. You have asked us to focus on maximum employment. We have, and I believe we have succeeded in meeting Congress’ goal for us. Mrs. LOVE. But we are still looking at— Mrs. YELLEN. The fact that economic growth— Mrs. LOVE. We— Mrs. YELLEN. —has been so disappointing, been so low— Mrs. LOVE. Okay. I have about 2 seconds, and I just wanted to say that we are still not happy with the rate of employment when it comes to African-Americans. We can do a lot better. We can do a lot better in our— Mrs. YELLEN. As you just recognized, there are limits on what the Fed can accomplish— Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentlelady has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Arkansas, Mr. Hill. Mr. HILL. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, it’s nice to have you back before the committee. Thank you for your patience today. One of the great compromises back in 1913 on the formation of the Federal Reserve regarded the importance and political decision to have the district banks, how they were owned, how they were spread around the country, and that—do you agree generally that they provided a good, diverse, strong voice in both supervisory and monetary policymaking over that 10 decades? Mrs. YELLEN. With respect to monetary policy, I feel it has been very good to have the diversity, the input from around the country, and a large group of people with diverse views trying to form a consensus. That has been very healthy. On supervisory policy, the reserve banks execute a great deal of supervision. They have responsibility, particularly for community banks. But it is the Board of Governors that is charged with set- VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00062 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 59 ting supervisory policy and putting regulations into effect, and so that policy guidance comes from the Board of Governors that is carried out in the reserve banks. Mr. HILL. But you do believe the Board of Governors listens to the members of the boards of the district banks, even on their supervisory suggestions, don’t you? Mrs. YELLEN. I’m sorry, the members of the Board or— Mr. HILL. The members of the Board of Governors in Washington, they do listen to the views of the district bank board members as it relates to supervisory policy, do they not? Mrs. YELLEN. The directors of the reserve banks don’t weigh in on bank supervision and— Mr. HILL. Should they? Mrs. YELLEN. —that supervision policy. Mr. HILL. Should they have that added to their list of suggestions? You have— Mrs. YELLEN. No. I think that the directors, especially given the role of banks on the boards and the fact that there are bank directors, it has been important to wall them off from— Mr. HILL. There are a lot of district bank directors that are not bank directors. They are citizens, just from various industries. Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. Mr. HILL. Do you think that the supervisors in the district banks have a good handle on their banks, their bankers, their bank asset quality, their bank supervision within the confines of their district? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. Mr. HILL. So wouldn’t it be a good idea to try to have merger and acquisition applications and expansion-type applications and business combination applications all handled at the district bank level? Mrs. YELLEN. The Board has responsibility ultimately for those decisions, and much of the work on them is done at the reserve banks. But in some cases, the Board has legal authority to make decisions. Mr. HILL. Do you think it is a decent policy to defer to the local reserve bank as a general statement and only in special instances have decisions come to the Board of Governors level for approval? Mrs. YELLEN. I think in many cases decisions are routine, and the recommendations to the Board come from the reserve banks. I wouldn’t favor changing the governance structure around that. Mr. HILL. Thank you. On the subject of Mr. Williams’ questions about the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, obviously during the crisis you owned a lot of nontraditional assets as a function of getting through the crisis period. And you have, through the payment of reserves, built a large portfolio of government securities. It looks like you have 40 percent of the mortgage-backed—your portfolio is 40 percent in mortgagebacked securities; you have 20 percent of the balance sheet with a maturity greater than 5 years in Treasuries; and that you, at last count I saw, owned 15 percent of the world’s total supply of U.S. Treasuries. Do those numbers sound generally right? VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00063 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 60 Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t have them in front of me, but they sound generally right. Mr. HILL. When banks have to go through a bank examination, there is a section of the CAMELS rating that has an S for interest rate sensitivity. And it would seem to me that you have a very substantial concentration of risk in that balance sheet and the size that it is and a significant sensitivity to risk because you have extended duration. When I was looking at the numbers I was reminded of two of my favorite quotes. One was old—Mr. Oakley Hunter, who used to be the CEO of Fannie Mae back in the late 1970s, described his own company when he was president as the world’s largest crap game. And then Mr. Buffett in 2008 described the Federal Reserve as history’s greatest hedge fund. And so my concern is that through Operation Twist, as you try to undo the portfolio, that you have a real interest rate sensitivity problem. I hope you will address that and move quickly to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Texas, Mr. Gonzalez. Mr. GONZALEZ. Thank you. I have a couple of questions. Chair Yellen, President Trump has stated he intends to create 25 million new jobs. However, given Trump’s anti-immigrant stance, where would the President get 25 million people to fill these jobs? Mrs. YELLEN. Immigration has been a very important source of labor force growth. I would estimate that with the economy having a 4.8 percent unemployment rate, looking forward job growth mainly has to come from additions to the labor force. There might be some increase in labor force participation, but we would need labor force growth. Given our projections on labor force growth, something like 75,000 to 125,000 jobs a month would be consistent with a stable unemployment rate. And so if immigration were to reduce labor force growth, the pace of job growth consistent with our staying with roughly 4.8 percent unemployment would move down, not up. Mr. GONZALEZ. Right. What role does immigration into the United States have on the growth and competitiveness of our economy? Mrs. YELLEN. That is a broad question I am not sure that I can answer, but it has been an important support for labor force growth, and it has been important in many sectors. Mr. GONZALEZ. Thank you for your response. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentleman yield back. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Michigan, Mr. Trott. Mr. TROTT. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And, Chair Yellen, thank you for your time today and for your service. I want to follow up on a question that Mr. Lynch was asking earlier regarding the OLA under Title II of Dodd-Frank. And I think you said that you preferred a bankruptcy alternative but wanted VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00064 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 61 to maintain the OLA just in case there was a scenario that couldn’t be anticipated. I think you also said, though, that under OLA, the taxpayers wouldn’t be put at risk. Did I misunderstand, or do you stand by that statement? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes. The way it is set up is that if the FDIC realized any losses they would be passed onto the banking industry, which would chip in to compensate. Mr. TROTT. So if the FDIC borrows trillions of dollars to compensate creditors it is not going to put taxpayers at risk? Mrs. YELLEN. I’m sorry, if the what? Mr. TROTT. If the FDIC borrows trillions of dollars to compensate creditors, the bank, it is not putting taxpayers at risk? Mrs. YELLEN. I think there is a limit on what they can borrow and it wouldn’t be trillions of dollars. Mr. TROTT. But taxpayers would be at risk under that scenario if they were borrowing, wouldn’t they? Mrs. YELLEN. It is structured so that the costs would be borne by the financial sector. Mr. TROTT. Okay. In December I was back home and I went to a holiday party at the Bank of Birmingham, which is a community bank in Birmingham, Michigan. And the CEO pulled me in his office and he said, ‘‘I just want to let you know we are selling. We can’t continue.’’ And they have since sold to the Bank of Ann Arbor. So I would like to know what you are doing today and what we can do to help save our community banks. Because I really see it as an obstacle to growth in our economy, and I really believe it is one of the reasons why no one is starting small businesses and young people under 30 aren’t owning businesses. The lack of credit for small business is a big issue, and I would like to hear your thoughts on that. Mrs. YELLEN. So small businesses don’t by and large report in surveys when they are asked that lack of access to loans or credit is one of the significant problems that they face, and we have seen pretty solid growth of credit overall from the banking sector, including small business loans. Banks are under a great deal of pressure for a number of different reasons. We have a low interest rate environment. Their net interest margins have been compressed and that tends to reduce profitability. Still, I believe community banks in the United States last year made profits of something like $5.5 billion. But there are banks that are under pressure and, of course, consolidation is a trend. For our part, I have emphasized repeatedly today that regulatory burdens on community banks need to be reduced. I would be very pleased to see Congress take steps in that direction, and we will also do all that we can to cooperate in reducing those burdens. Mr. TROTT. Great. I want to save some time for my colleagues, so my last question is, we have heard a lot of nice speeches from my friends on the other side of the aisle today about all the problems that President Trump has created in the last 25 days. Why is the stock market doing so well? Why do we have a record high in the stock market? VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00065 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 62 Mrs. YELLEN. I think market participants likely are anticipating shifts in fiscal policy that will stimulate growth, perhaps raise earnings, maybe tax cuts that will boost earnings. We have seen longer-term interest rates go up and the dollar strengthen, and that is consistent with expectations of an expansionary fiscal policy. Mr. TROTT. Would it be fair to say then, the prospect of easing the regulatory burden created by Dodd-Frank is causing investors and businesses to feel more optimistic about our economy? Mrs. YELLEN. I have no idea what portion Dodd-Frank plays in that. I have no way of knowing that. Mr. TROTT. Thank you, Chair Yellen. I yield back. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentleman yields back. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from Georgia, Mr. Loudermilk. Mr. LOUDERMILK. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chair Yellen, as many have discussed here today, the Fed currently holds about $1.7 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities, which, surprisingly, equates to about 21 percent of all the mortgage-backed securities. This has been unprecedented because in the decades before the recession, the Fed had virtually zero mortgage-backed securities on its book. But yesterday at the Senate Banking Committee hearing when this issue was brought up, why such a large number of mortgagebacked securities are currently on the books of the Fed, you stated that, ‘‘After the financial crisis, at a time when the economy was very depressed, unemployment was very high, inflation was running below the Fed’s objectives and extraordinary support was needed.’’ And that is how you explained why you purchased so many mortgage-backed securities when prior to that, you had none. Mrs. YELLEN. Treasury securities. Mr. LOUDERMILK. Right. Mrs. YELLEN. Both. Mr. LOUDERMILK. However, today, we have heard from you and some others in here about how well we are doing now. The economy is going well, unemployment is going down. If the reason that you bought those, and you said that you are going to divest yourself of those via attrition over time, but my question is just last week the Fed purchased $8.5 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Mrs. YELLEN. All we do is reinvest proceeds of maturing principal to keep the size of our balance sheet unchanged. We are not doing any net purchases of either Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities. Mr. LOUDERMILK. But is this in any way divesting yourself? Mrs. YELLEN. We have not started the process of divesting ourselves. We are maintaining at a constant level the size of our portfolio and leaving the composition unchanged for now. But we anticipate at some point beginning the process you described of allowing maturing principal—we will stop reinvesting it and our balance sheet will gradually shrink. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00066 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 63 Mr. LOUDERMILK. So what you are telling me is the Reuters report that came out on Thursday which reported that you bought $8.5 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities isn’t exactly accurate? Mrs. YELLEN. If we had, I don’t know the details, but to the extent we have principal repayments on mortgage-backed securities, we would take those principal repayments and reinvest in mortgage-backed securities to keep our holdings at a constant level. So that is our reinvestment. We are reinvesting maturing principal and it might have amounted to the number that you cited. I don’t know for sure. Mr. LOUDERMILK. $8.5 billion, that is a pretty significant number, especially holding 21 percent of all mortgage-backed securities. Mrs. YELLEN. We are not— Mr. LOUDERMILK. Does that not put you and the taxpayers at a significant risk? Mrs. YELLEN. We are not adding to our holdings of mortgagebacked securities. We are maintaining our holdings unchanged in dollar terms. And these are securities that have essentially no credit risk. And of course, there is interest rate risk in our portfolio— Mr. LOUDERMILK. And can you remind me, what was the significant factor in causing the crash in 2008? Wasn’t it the same idea that these have very little credit risk, but yet, that was the impetus with what brought us into the recession? Mrs. YELLEN. These are government-guaranteed mortgages. And we are entitled, again, in the terms of our charter to invest in Treasury and agency debt, and these are agencies— Mr. LOUDERMILK. In your opinion, then, this doesn’t put the American taxpayer at risk or the Fed at significant risk by holding 21 percent of mortgage-backed securities, and you are not divesting at this time? Mrs. YELLEN. I don’t see that there is significant risk. A central bank operates in a very different way than a normal commercial bank. Our ability to conduct monetary policy, which is our prime responsibility, doesn’t depend on if they reflect—the value of those securities may fluctuate, but that has no impact on our ability to conduct monetary policy. We could have unrealized losses in those portfolios, but we have no intention and we have stated for a long time that we do not intend to sell mortgage-backed securities, so we would not realize those losses. Our holdings of them have swelled since the financial crisis. The payments that we are making to the Treasury that positively impact the Federal budget—prior to the crisis our payments to the Treasury ran around $20 billion to $25 billion, and last year they came close to $100 billion. And— Chairman HENSARLING. Time— Mrs. YELLEN. —we have supported growth in the economy. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair wishes to advise Members that currently, I intend to recognize the gentleman from Ohio, Mr. Davidson, and the gentleman from North Carolina, Mr. Budd, and we will adjourn at that time. The gentleman from Ohio, Mr. Davidson, is recognized. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00067 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 64 Mr. DAVIDSON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Chair Yellen. It is an honor to speak with you, and thanks for taking a big chunk of time to talk with us today. What we have raised on the screen here is a trade-weighted U.S. dollar index. And for an extended period of time, your time as Chair of the Fed, you have emphasized a desire to raise rates. To what extent has currency appreciation impacted your ability to do that? Mrs. YELLEN. I think the appreciation of the dollar partly reflects market expectations that we would be raising rates faster than many other advanced countries. Our economy has been growing more strongly and we have had stronger economic performance. The expectation that rates would diverge with the United States moving to higher rates than other counties has induced capital inflows, which have served to push up the dollar, as your chart influences shows. And that is one of the ways in which monetary policy normally works. Mr. DAVIDSON. Right. Mrs. YELLEN. Of course, it has tended to diminish net exports. It has had a negative effect on our exports. It has diminished spending in the economy, and it is part of how a tighter monetary policy or perceptions that there will be works to slow aggregate demand. Mr. DAVIDSON. Right. And so in that sense, it is holding down the same pressures that you would hope to do, so the strong dollar is doing some of the same things you would hope to do with the rate appreciation. Mrs. YELLEN. That is right. Mr. DAVIDSON. But the effect for the saver, then, with the currency appreciating, is that rates are still low, so time, value, and money, the rates are still held low, and it has an impact on hardworking families trying to save for retirement. While it might have a similar effect for monetary policy, the effect on Americans in the domestic economy. Would you agree with that? Mrs. YELLEN. Yes, how the dollar moves is a factor. As I say, it is part of a response to monetary policy, but it is not mechanical and that does affect the interest rate path we put in place that is appropriate. Mr. DAVIDSON. Thank you for that. Now, one of the things that you had talked about as—you were commenting on policy so I won’t ask you a specific policy question, but in theory, if there were an adjustment that had an effect of raising the cost of imports by, say, 20 percent, and there was something that had the effect of lowering the cost of exports, would the currency market fully clear? Do you believe that would happen? And if so, would that still resolve in a net change in our balance of trade? Mrs. YELLEN. I would note that there have been discussions and academic work in connection with the border tax that suggests that an appreciation of the dollar could fully offset, as you have said, a tax change that raised the cost of imports and provided a comparable export subsidy. And in principle that could provide a full offset. VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00068 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 65 The problem is there is great uncertainty about how, in reality, markets would really respond to these changes, and a strong set of assumptions is needed to believe that markets would fully offset those changes. It is very difficult to know just what would happen. There is more than trade that affects a country’s exchange rates. Market participants’ expectations matter and there is a great deal of wealth. There would be shifts in wealth. The value of U.S. assets held in foreign currencies would be greatly diminished by that— Mr. DAVIDSON. Thanks. I think you anticipate my next question, which is $2-plus trillion of U.S. assets held offshore, one of the desires would be to see some of that put to work in the U.S. economy. To what extent over the past several years of high appreciation of the U.S. dollar does that affect the value of the repatriation, and do you feel that currency would have an impact in the present context of relatively high rates in anything we would do policy-wise with fiscal policy to drive those balance of payments? Mrs. YELLEN. That was a complicated question and I am not sure I have— Mr. DAVIDSON. Sorry. And you have been answering them for a long time, so the net effect of the currency appreciation on repatriation. Is there a fiscal policy that we would do that you feel that would be offset by the strong dollar? What would happen in that context? Mrs. YELLEN. I am not sure I have a simple answer for you to that complicated question. Mr. DAVIDSON. My time has expired. Chairman HENSARLING. The time of the gentleman has expired. The Chair now recognizes the gentleman from North Carolina, Mr. Budd. Mr. BUDD. Thank you, Chair Yellen, for joining us today. I will shorten the question. Something has changed in our economy since 2009, and I want to know if you think that in the last 8 years, the expansionary monetary policy or the financial regulations have played a role in the growing populations of both the poor and the very wealthy by hurting middle-class savers? Mrs. YELLEN. Are you referring to the fact that we have had low interest rates and it has hurt middle-class savers? Mr. BUDD. I would say that combined with the financial regulations and how it has had an effect on those middle-class savers, if you see a correlation there. Mrs. YELLEN. I am not sure I see how—I think financial regulation has resulted in a stronger financial system and less risk substantially than we have had before the crisis. I think it has enabled us to have stronger growth and a faster recovery than some other advanced nations, including European nations. And in that sense, I think it has been beneficial. But, of course, savers have been impacted by the low interest rate environments, and I hear from them every day, as I am sure you do. They would welcome higher interest rates, and if the economy continues to move along a solid path, it is my hope that we will be able to raise interest rates more rapidly and they will see VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00069 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 66 some of that pass through to their savings earn higher returns on them. Mr. BUDD. Thank you. So the next part of that—so when I do talk to the community banks in my district they keep telling me that the fastest-growing department in their business, in their bank, is the compliance department. So this seems to be borne out of the fact that we are now near zero as far as it comes to new bank charters, where it used to be hundreds of new bank charters a year. Do you think the fact that banks have had to massively increase their spending on regulatory compliance is helpful or harmful to banks’ abilities to make loans for individuals and small businesses? Mrs. YELLEN. I agree with everyone this morning who has expressed concern about regulatory burdens on community banks, and I pledge to do everything in our power to attempt to look for ways to mitigate those burdens. Mr. BUDD. Thank you. I yield back my time. Chairman HENSARLING. The gentleman yields back. I would like to thank Chair Yellen for her testimony today. The Chair notes that some Members may have additional questions for this witness, which they may wish to submit in writing. Without objection, the hearing record will remain open for 5 legislative days for Members to submit written questions to this witness and to place her responses in the record. Also, without objection, Members will have 5 legislative days to submit extraneous materials to the Chair for inclusion in the record. I would ask, Chair Yellen, that you please respond as promptly as you are able. This hearing stands adjourned. [Whereupon, at 2:11 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.] VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00070 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI APPENDIX February 15, 2017 (67) VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00071 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00072 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 27200.001 68 VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00073 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 27200.002 69 VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00074 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 27200.003 70 VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00075 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 27200.004 71 VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00076 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 K:\DOCS\27200.TXT TERI 27200.005 72 VerDate Nov 24 2008 17:47 Jan 24, 2018 Jkt 027200 PO 00000 Frm 00077 Fmt 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@FedFRASER