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S. HRG. 113–329 THE SEMIANNUAL MONETARY POLICY REPORT TO THE CONGRESS HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED THIRTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM’S SEMIANNUAL MONETARY POLICY REPORT TO THE CONGRESS FEBRUARY 27, 2014 Printed for the use of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs ( Available at: http: //www.fdsys.gov / U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON 88–746 PDF : 2014 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS TIM JOHNSON, South Dakota, Chairman JACK REED, Rhode Island MIKE CRAPO, Idaho CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey BOB CORKER, Tennessee SHERROD BROWN, Ohio DAVID VITTER, Louisiana JON TESTER, Montana MIKE JOHANNS, Nebraska MARK R. WARNER, Virginia PATRICK J. TOOMEY, Pennsylvania JEFF MERKLEY, Oregon MARK KIRK, Illinois KAY HAGAN, North Carolina JERRY MORAN, Kansas JOE MANCHIN III, West Virginia TOM COBURN, Oklahoma ELIZABETH WARREN, Massachusetts DEAN HELLER, Nevada HEIDI HEITKAMP, North Dakota CHARLES YI, Staff Director GREGG RICHARD, Republican Staff Director BRETT LAURA SWANSON, Deputy Staff Director GLEN SEARS, Deputy Policy Director HEWITT, Policy Analyst and Legislative Assistant GREG DEAN, Republican Chief Counsel MIKE LEE, Republican Professional Staff Member DAWN RATLIFF, Chief Clerk TAYLOR REED, Hearing Clerk SHELVIN SIMMONS, IT Director JIM CROWELL, Editor BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER (II) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL C O N T E N T S THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2014 Page Opening statement of Chairman Johnson ............................................................. Opening statements, comments, or prepared statements of: Senator Crapo ................................................................................................... 1 2 WITNESS Janet L. Yellen, Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ...... Prepared statement .......................................................................................... Responses to written questions of: Senator Hagan ........................................................................................... Senator Vitter ............................................................................................ Senator Toomey ......................................................................................... Senator Coburn ......................................................................................... ADDITIONAL MATERIAL SUPPLIED FOR THE BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER (III) 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 41 42 43 46 RECORD Monetary Policy Report to Congress dated February 11, 2014 ........................... VerDate 0ct 09 2002 3 37 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 49 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL THE SEMIANNUAL MONETARY POLICY REPORT TO THE CONGRESS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2014 U.S. SENATE, URBAN AFFAIRS, Washington, DC. The Committee met at 10:04 a.m., in room SD–538, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Tim Johnson, Chairman of the Committee, presiding. COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND OPENING STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN TIM JOHNSON Chairman JOHNSON. I call this hearing to order. We welcome Dr. Janet Yellen as Chair to deliver the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Chair Yellen, I would like to congratulate you on your nomination and confirmation. In fact, this month’s hearings are historic—the first time that a woman is delivering the Fed’s semiannual Report to Congress. Chair Yellen, you have a lot of important issues to focus on as Chair, including continued implementation of Wall Street Reform, establishing policies to improve financial stability and reduce systemic risk, and providing appropriate monetary policy to support our economy. Overall, I am encouraged by the recent improvements in the economy. It appears that economic growth is picking up, and many mainstream economists expect stronger growth this year. This is good news. However, I am concerned that the economic recovery is not being felt by every American. Too many cities and towns across America have not fully recovered from the Great Recession and continue to struggle. Long-term unemployment remains historically high, and we see recent college graduates, many of whom are burdened by high student loan debt, have a tough time finding work. Income inequality is becoming more severe, and more families are being squeezed out of the middle class. As such, and while inflation remains weak, I caution the Fed not to move too quickly to exit from its current policies until we are on solid footing and the recovery is more widespread. While the Fed’s policies have helped the recovery, the Fed can only do so much. Congress needs to act to ensure that the recovery is more widespread and that generations of Americans are not shut out of economic opportunity. We cannot solve our fiscal problems by imposing immediate and arbitrary cuts, and we need to invest in the economy today to ensure future prosperity. It is important we implement policies that work alongside monetary policy to help get more Americans back to work. BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER (1) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 2 Chair Yellen, I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the decision to taper asset purchases, how recent Fed actions are affecting the economy, and where the economy is heading. I now turn to Ranking Member Crapo for his opening statement. STATEMENT OF SENATOR MIKE CRAPO BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Senator CRAPO. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and welcome also, Chair Yellen, on your first appearance before this Committee as the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Today’s hearing is an important opportunity to examine the current state of monetary policy. Since your confirmation hearing in November, the Fed has begun the process of tapering its quantitative easing purchases. The pace of quantitative easing purchases has come down by $20 billion. This is a welcome development for those of us who disagree with the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy and prefer to see QE purchases end entirely later this year. By the time the Fed stops expanding its balance sheet, it will hold well over $4 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. Former Chairman Bernanke and others have suggested that the Fed might maintain the expanded size of the balance sheet for some time rather than promptly reducing it. This would mean that the reserves created on the Bank’s balance sheets to purchase those assets would remain in the financial system. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker has called these high excess reserves ‘‘tinder on the books of the banking system.’’ The Fed will have to be vigilant to ensure that the tools they have identified to manage the wind-down are sufficient to prevent market disruptions. These unconventional monetary policy tools have, in my opinion, failed to produce the promised benefits as noted economists recently observed that over the last 4 years the share of adults who are working has not increased and GDP has fallen further behind potential as we would have defined it in the fall of 2009. All that is to say that, despite unprecedented amounts of monetary intervention and record low interest rates, businesses have not responded by hiring new workers. Dr. Yellen, in your confirmation hearing, you commented on the need to monitor the costs and risks to financial stability that current monetary policy creates. You also stated that you believe monetary policy is most effective when the public understands what the Fed is trying to do and how it plans to do it. I appreciate your commitment to openness and transparency. I look forward to your thoughts as to how the Fed will manage a return to normalized monetary policy and how you will communicate that transition to the public. I also look forward to learning more about your perspective on the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act and how different rules interact with each other and their impact on the economy at large. Because of the size and complexity of these rules, it is paramount that the regulators strike the right balance without unduly harming the economy. This was evident most recently in December with the final Volcker rule and its unintended and disproportionate effect on community banks with respect to their holdings of trust preferred collateral debt obligations. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 3 The economic impact of the recently finalized Fed rule that imposed heightened capital requirements on foreign banks doing business in the United States is yet to be seen. Earlier reports indicate that some foreign banks are moving their assets outside the United States, taking their market activities to friendlier jurisdictions. As you continue with the rulemaking process, I encourage you to do so without placing the U.S. markets at a competitive disadvantage or putting out of business smaller firms that are no threat to our financial security. I certainly hope that you will work with Congress to identify statutory ambiguities in Dodd-Frank that prevent the Fed from doing the right thing. And, lastly, we still have the Government conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which will create a long-term market distortion in this crucial segment of the U.S. economy. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the need for this reform and bringing this 5-year ordeal to a close. Again, welcome, Chair Yellen, and I look forward to your testimony. Chairman JOHNSON. Thank you, Senator Crapo. To preserve time for questions, opening statements will be limited to the Chair and Ranking Member. I would like to remind my colleagues that the record will be open for the next 7 days for additional statements and other materials. I would like to welcome Chair Yellen. Dr. Yellen is serving her first term as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She was sworn into office earlier this month. Before that, Dr. Yellen served as Vice Chair and Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She was also previously Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Chair Yellen, please begin your testimony. STATEMENT OF JANET L. YELLEN, CHAIR, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Ms. YELLEN. Chairman Johnson, Senator Crapo, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. In my remarks today, I will discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy. I will conclude with an update on our continuing work on regulatory reform. First, let me acknowledge the important contributions of Chairman Bernanke. His leadership helped make our economy and financial system stronger and ensured that the Federal Reserve is transparent and accountable. I pledge to continue that work. The economic recovery gained greater traction in the second half of last year. Real gross domestic product is currently estimated to have risen at an average annual rate of more than 3 1⁄2 percent in the third and fourth quarters, up from a 1 3⁄4 percent pace in the first half. The pickup in economic activity has fueled further progress in the labor market. About 1–1⁄4 million jobs have been added to payrolls since the previous Monetary Policy Report last July, and 3 1⁄4 million have been added since August 2012, the month before the Federal Reserve began a new round of asset purchases to add momentum to the recovery. The unemployment rate has fallen nearly a percentage point since the middle of last year VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 4 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER and 1 1⁄2 percentage points since the beginning of the current asset purchase program. Nevertheless, the recovery in the labor market is far from complete. The unemployment rate is still well above levels that the Federal Open Market Committee participants estimate is consistent with maximum sustainable employment. Those out of a job for more than 6 months continue to make up an unusually large fraction of the unemployed, and the number of people who are working part-time but would prefer a full-time job remains very high. These observations underscore the importance of considering more than the unemployment rate when evaluating the condition of the U.S. labor market. Among major components of GDP, household and business spending growth stepped up during the second half of last year. Early in 2013, growth in consumer spending was restrained by changes in fiscal policy. As this restraint abated during the second half of the year, household spending accelerated, supported by job gains and by rising home values and equity prices. Similarly, growth in business investment started off slowly last year, but then picked up during the second half, reflecting improved sales prospects, greater confidence, and still favorable financing conditions. In contrast, the recovery in the housing sector slowed in the wake of last year’s increase in mortgage rates. Inflation remained low as the economy picked up strength, with both the headline and core personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price indexes rising only about 1 percent last year, well below the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2-percent objective for inflation over the longer run. Some of the recent softness reflects factors that seem likely to prove transitory, including falling prices for crude oil and declines in non-oil import prices. My colleagues on the FOMC and I anticipate that economic activity and employment will expand at a moderate pace this year and next, the unemployment rate will continue to decline toward its longer-run sustainable level, and inflation will move back toward 2 percent over coming years. We have been watching closely the recent volatility in global financial markets. Our sense is that at this stage these developments do not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economic outlook. We will, of course, continue to monitor the situation. Mr. Chairman, let me add as an aside that, since my appearance before the House Committee, a number of data releases have pointed to softer spending than many analysts had expected. Part of that softness may reflect adverse weather conditions, but at this point, it is difficult to discern exactly how much. In the weeks and months ahead, my colleagues and I will be attentive to signals that indicate whether the recovery is progressing in line with our earlier expectations. Turning to monetary policy, let me emphasize that I expect a great deal of continuity in the FOMC’s approach to monetary policy. I served on the Committee as we formulated our current policy strategy, and I strongly support that strategy, which is designed to fulfill the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Prior to the financial crisis, the FOMC carried out monetary policy by adjusting its target for the Federal funds rate. With that VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00008 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 5 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER rate near zero since late 2008, we have relied on two less traditional tools—asset purchases and forward guidance—to help the economy move toward maximum employment and price stability. Both tools put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and support asset prices. In turn, these more accommodative financial conditions support consumer spending, business investment, and housing construction, adding impetus to the recovery. Our current program of asset purchases began in September 2012 amid signs that the recovery was weakening and progress in the labor market had slowed. The Committee said that it would continue the program until there was a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability. In mid-2013, the Committee indicated that if progress toward its objectives continued as expected, a moderation in the monthly pace of purchases would likely become appropriate later in the year. In December, the Committee judged that the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions warranted a modest reduction in the pace of purchases, from $45 billion to $40 billion per month of longer-term Treasury securities and from $40 billion to $35 billion per month of agency mortgage-backed securities. At its January meeting, the Committee decided to make additional reductions of the same magnitude. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. That said, purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on its outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of these purchases. The Committee has emphasized that a highly accommodative policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after asset purchases end. In addition, the Committee has said since December 2012 that it expects the current low target range for the Federal funds rate to be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6 1⁄2 percent, inflation is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above our 2-percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Crossing one of these thresholds will not automatically prompt an increase in the Federal funds rate, but will instead indicate only that it had become appropriate for the Committee to consider whether the broader economic outlook would justify such an increase. In December of last year and again this January, the Committee said that its current expectations—based on its assessment of a broad range of measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments—is that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the Federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6 1⁄2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the 2-percent goal. I am committed to achieving both parts of our dual mandate: helping the economy return to full employment and returning infla- VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00009 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 6 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER tion to 2 percent while ensuring that it does not run persistently above or below that level. I will finish with an update on progress on regulatory reforms and supervisory actions to strengthen the financial system. In October, the Federal Reserve Board proposed a rule to strengthen the liquidity positions of large and internationally active financial institutions. Together with other Federal agencies, the Board also issued a final rule implementing the Volcker rule, which prohibits banking firms from engaging in short-term proprietary trading of certain financial instruments. In addition, we recently finalized the rules implementing enhanced prudential standards, mandated by Section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. On the supervisory front, the next round of annual capital stress tests of the largest 30 bank holding companies is underway, and we expect to report results in March. Regulatory and supervisory actions, including those that are leading to substantial increases in capital and liquidity in the banking sector, are making our financial system more resilient. Still, important tasks lie ahead. We are working to finalize the proposed rule, strengthening the leverage ratio standards for U.S.based, systemically important global banks. We expect to issue proposals for a risk-based capital surcharge for those banks as well as for a long-term debt requirement to help ensure that these organizations can be resolved. In addition, we are working to advance proposals on margins for noncleared derivatives, consistent with a new global framework, and are evaluating possible measures to address financial stability risks associated with short-term wholesale funding. We will continue to monitor for emerging risks, including watching carefully to see if the regulatory reforms work as intended. Since the financial crisis and the depths of the recession, substantial progress has been made in restoring the economy to health and in strengthening the financial system. Still, there is more to do. Too many Americans remain unemployed, inflation remains below our longer-term objective, and the work of making the financial system more robust has not yet been completed. I look forward to working with my colleagues and many others to carry out the important mission you have given the Federal Reserve. Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions. Chairman JOHNSON. Thank you, Chair Yellen. As we begin questions, I will ask the clerk to put 5 minutes on the clock for each member. Chair Yellen, with inflation low and unemployment so high, does that give the Fed some room to continue promoting full employment? Ms. YELLEN. Chairman Johnson, yes, it certainly does give us room to continue promoting full employment, and we have committed to do so and have made clear that we see an accommodative monetary policy as remaining appropriate for quite some time. There is no conflict at all at the moment between the two goals that Congress has assigned to us of promoting maximum employment and price stability. Inflation is running well below our 2-percent target, and as you indicated, that gives us ample scope to con- VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00010 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 7 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER tinue to try to promote a return to full employment, and we are committed to doing that. Chairman JOHNSON. Chair Yellen, what approach is the Fed taking with respect to insurance companies under the new rules implementing Section 165 of Dodd-Frank? How would this interact with rules on capital requirements for insurance companies under the Collins amendment? Ms. YELLEN. Senator, we are looking very carefully to design an appropriate set of rules for companies with important involvement in insurance. We recognize that there are very significant differences between the business models of insurance companies and the banks that we supervise, and we are taking the time that is necessary to understand those differences and to attempt to craft a set of capital and liquidity requirements that will be appropriate to the business model of insurance companies. I would say, however, that the Collins amendment does restrict what is possible for the Federal Reserve in designing an appropriate set of rules. So it does pose some constraints on what we can do, and we will do our very best to craft an appropriate set of rules subject to that constraint. Chairman JOHNSON. In what ways could the FSOC make the SIFI designation process more transparent? Ms. YELLEN. So on this one, Senator, I would say that I think FSOC really has provided the public with a good deal of information about the criteria that it is using, the general criteria that it has established for attempting to determine whether or not an institution and organization should be designated as a SIFI. And in the cases of those organizations where it has made a designation, it has really provided a wealth of information about those organizations. There are also opportunities for companies that want to contest designation to have an appeals process, so there is really a wellworked-out process. Now, as the FSOC goes on to consider other possible firms for designation, if it decides to use a different set of criteria, I think it is completely appropriate that the FSOC should also make clear if new criteria are being used to govern designations. Chairman JOHNSON. How has the recovery impacted wages and income inequality? And if so, what can Congress do to address this major problem? Ms. YELLEN. Well, Senator, I think the issues of income inequality, of rising income inequality in this country really date back many decades, probably to the mid-1980s, when we began to see a very substantial widening of wage gaps between more skilled and less skilled workers, and this is a trend that, unfortunately, has continued almost unabated for the last 30 years. Economists have debated exactly what the causes are, but technological change and globalization play a role. However, I think it is clear that the recession has placed an extremely high toll particularly and special burdens on lower-income workers. Those workers and less educated workers have seen their unemployment rates rise disproportionately during the downturn, and so households and segments of our population that had already VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00011 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 8 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER been suffering stagnant or declining incomes for many years have seen the recession take a large toll. So there really has been a very large burden, and it is our objective to try to get the economy back to full employment to alleviate that portion of the burden. Things like education and training I think are on every economist’s list of actions that Congress could take. Early childhood education, training more generally, those things certainly, and others Congress could consider to address these important issues. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Crapo. Senator CRAPO. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And, Chair Yellen, again, welcome to the Committee. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator CRAPO. I appreciated your comments a couple weeks ago to the House Financial Services Committee when you discussed GSE reform. At that point you said that we still have a system that has systemic risk. Reforming Fannie and Freddie is a priority for this Committee, and I would like to ask you to just take a couple of brief moments to discuss the need to bring private capital back into the market. Ms. YELLEN. Well, Senator, I strongly support and would urge the Congress to address the issue of GSE reform. We have gotten a mortgage system that in a de facto sense remains very highly dependent on Government backing, and it fails to meet the very important objective of successful securitization without systemic risk. There are a number of different ways in which Congress could proceed with GSE reform, depending on your assessment of appropriate priorities, but in my personal view, it is simply very important for Congress to decide explicitly what the role of the Government should be in housing finance, and there are a lot of possible choices available. I think in terms of bringing private capital back into the market, we now have a system where almost all mortgages that are being granted in this country have Government backing associated with it, and I think to see private capital return in meaningful amounts to the mortgage industry, clarifying the rules of the road, is important. So I would certainly urge Congress to proceed in this area. Senator CRAPO. Thank you. I agree with you and appreciate your observations at this point. As I stated in my opening statement, I am very concerned about Dodd-Frank implementation, and I certainly hope that you will clearly communicate with Congress if there are statutory ambiguities or obstacles that prevent the Fed from doing the right thing when promulgating regulations. And in that context, I would just like to ask if you agree. When Chairman Bernanke was before us last year, I think it was, I asked him this same question. But I would like to know if you agree with him that the areas of the end users, swaps pushouts, and reducing the regulatory burden on community banks are areas in which we need additional statutory attention to getting it right. Ms. YELLEN. So the three areas that you mentioned are ones that are high on our list of concerns, areas that we are looking at ourselves. And as we design the Dodd-Frank regulations, in all of these areas we are doing our very best to address in these areas VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00012 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 9 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER you have mentioned issues that have been raised and that we consider quite appropriate. It makes sense to me that Congress should consider these areas as well. I want to assure you that we will do our best in writing regulations in these areas, however, to address the concerns that have been raised. Senator CRAPO. Well, thank you, and I appreciate your attention to it. I also believe that you need additional clarification and strength in the statute to do it right, and I hope that we will be able to provide that from Congress. Next, in numerous hearings last year, it was revealed that we need better international coordination on cross-border issues to ensure that there are no undue interruptions in the financial system. Immediately after the Fed finalized its Section 165 proposal for foreign banking organizations last week, European Commissioner Michel Barnier’s office issued a statement that the Fed’s rule conflicts with the international standards on cross-border cooperation in bank resolution. What concrete steps are you taking to ensure effective coordination with your foreign counterparts to create a complementary regulatory regime? Ms. YELLEN. Well, cooperation with our counterparts globally has been a core part of our approach to strengthening the financial system and putting in place regulations under Dodd-Frank. So we are very actively engaged through the Financial Stability Board, through the Basel Committee, through the relations we have with insurance regulators, attempting to craft regulations in all areas that are consistent globally and that mesh together as a successful system. In the area of foreign banking organizations in our rule writing which we finalized, I guess the week before last, on Section 165, we faced important tradeoffs. The role of large foreign banking organizations in our capital markets has changed dramatically over the last 20 years. These organizations are among the largest and most systemically important organizations in the U.S. financial system, and we tried to write a set of rules that provide a level playing field for both U.S. organizations and foreign banking organizations doing business in the United States. And the rules that we put in place I believe are really quite similar to what our own banking organizations face when they do business abroad. So we have tried to construct a set of rules that preserve the opportunity for cross-border international global capital flows. Branches and agencies of foreign banking organizations can continue to operate without separate capital requirements in the United States. But it was important to put in place a set of rules directed to financial stability of our own markets. Senator CRAPO. Thank you very much. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Reed. Senator REED. Well, thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, and welcome, Madam Chair. The Open Market Committee has several times made the point that we seem to be operating a cross purposes. As the Federal Reserve is pursuing an expansive monetary policy, we are pursuing a very restricted fiscal policy. It would seem to me that if we were in harmony or complementary, it would be better for the overall VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00013 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 10 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER economy. There are several examples. Our current debate about unemployment compensation, most objective observers would suggest that could add anywhere from 180,000 to 200,000 jobs to our economy, and at the same time helping people who need help. We are in the throes of trying to figure out if we are going to actually fund our highway system after next September, which is, again, another example of how fiscal policy could aid your efforts. Can you comment on this apparent cross-purpose activity? Ms. YELLEN. So fiscal policy really has been quite tight and has imposed a substantial drag on spending in the U.S. economy over the last several years. The CBO estimated that last year the fiscal policy drag probably subtracted a percentage point and a half from growth. The drag is likely to lessen substantially during the current year, but nevertheless, there remains some drag. And, of course, it is true that because there has been fiscal policy drag, the burden on monetary policy has been larger. This is true not only in the United States but in a number of advanced countries in Europe and in Japan as well. My predecessor has always urged Congress recognizing that there are substantial long-term budget deficit issues and need for a sustainable fiscal path for the country to focus to the maximum extent possible on fiscal changes that would address the longer-run issues that will be associated with a rising debt-to-GDP ratio over decades and to try to avoid doing harm to the recovery. And I would take the same general position. Senator REED. But in the short run, there is a value of additional fiscal stimulation in the economy that will complement what you are already doing and also make it easier for you to begin to withdraw the quantitative easing. Is that a fair comment? Ms. YELLEN. Well, I do think the economy is beginning to recover, and we have made progress. And, you know, at a minimum I would hope that fiscal policy would do no harm. Senator REED. Just one other quick question. You have and your predecessors have looked at an unemployment rate of 6.5 percent as sort of a point of inflection, if you will. But one of the aspects of the current employment situation is that labor force participation is falling, and so that 6.5 percent might not actually capture sort of the reality of the current economy and be an adequate sort of measure when you should begin or how you should begin to undertake fiscal easing—quantitative easing, excuse me. So are you looking at other ways or looking beyond just the simple unemployment rate to gauge your actions? Ms. YELLEN. So, Senator, let me first say that 6.5 percent unemployment is not the Committee’s definition of what constitutes full employment. The range of views on that among Committee members is substantially lower. The central tendency is, you know, under 6 percent. So 6.5 was simply meant to be the Committee saying, look, if the unemployment rate is above that, we see absolutely no need to consider any possibility of raising rates. Below that, we begin to look more carefully. And as we do so, of course, the unemployment rate is not a sufficient statistic to measure the health of the labor market. An additional 5 percent, an unusually high fraction of our labor force, is working part-time for economic reasons, which means they are unable to get full-time work but want it. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00014 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 11 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER That is an additional 7 million-plus Americans who were involuntarily employed part-time, and we have an unusually high fraction of Americans who were unemployed and have been for substantial amounts of time. So, you know, as we go to a fuller consideration of how is the labor market performing, we need to take all of those things into account. Senator REED. Thank you, Madam Chair. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Shelby. Senator SHELBY. Thank you. Thank you, Chairman Yellen, for being here with us, and congratulations. I want to talk to you a little about the portfolio of the Fed that has been mentioned. I understand it is about $4 trillion at the moment. You have tapered off some, the Fed Board of Governors. You are still buying at the current rate, about 65 billion a month. So at that rate, if you do not taper substantially or stop, you will be getting up toward $5 trillion at the end of the year, or less. Is that correct? Ms. YELLEN. Well, we are as you say, we are around $4 trillion and continuing to buy—— Senator SHELBY. Now, but you are getting up to $5 trillion at the rate you are buying. Ms. YELLEN. If we do not continue to taper. Senator SHELBY. But even if you taper and you continue to buy, like if you taper down from 65 to 50, that is still substantial buying in the market, is it not? Ms. YELLEN. It is. I mean, we have indicated that if the economy progresses as we anticipate, we expect to continue reducing the pace of purchases in measured steps, which would mean ending completely the purchases winding down and ending some time next fall. Senator SHELBY. In your portfolio, are there mainly Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities? Is that what the portfolio consists of? Ms. YELLEN. Yes. Senator SHELBY. What is the relative ratio of that, one to the other? Relatively, just an educated guess. Ms. YELLEN. I believe we have a larger quantity of Treasurys than mortgage-backed securities. Senator SHELBY. Can you furnish that? Do you want to look at it or do you want to furnish that for the record. Ms. YELLEN. I will be happy to furnish the exact numbers to you for the record. Senator SHELBY. To unwind a portfolio of that size, which is unprecedented, Chairman Bernanke has told us before that it would be a big challenge. Do you agree with that? Ms. YELLEN. We do not need to and have no intention of quickly winding down that portfolio. Senator SHELBY. Will you—is it your plan to keep some of the mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys to maturity? Ms. YELLEN. So we have indicated that we have no intention of selling mortgage-backed securities. They will—I think when we begin the process of normalizing monetary policy, of wanting to VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00015 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 12 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER tighten monetary policy, we will have a look at permitting runoff out of our portfolio as these securities mature. And allowing runoff, we would bring down our portfolio over time. Senator SHELBY. Slowly. Ms. YELLEN. Slowly, even without sales. And I think my predecessor has emphasized, and I agree, there is no need to bring down the size of our portfolio in order to tighten monetary policy. We have a range of tools that we can use to raise the level of shortterm interest rates at the time that the Committee deems it appropriate to begin to tighten monetary policy conditions. Now, that is a way off, but we continue to develop tools to make sure that we have an arsenal of tools to be able to, as appropriate, tighten conditions and not have to do asset sales or manage our portfolio in any way that would be disruptive to financial markets. Senator SHELBY. If I can shift now to the regulatory side of your duties here as Chair of the Fed Board of Governors, Basel III is supposed to be in effect, is it not, in 2015? It is 2015? Ms. YELLEN. I believe—— Senator SHELBY. A lot of them have got to make those adjustments for capital, the flexibility of capital liquidity, so to speak. Is that correct? Ms. YELLEN. I believe so. Senator SHELBY. Now, Senator Crapo mentioned the foreign banks and so forth. Will you as a regulator make sure that the foreign banks comply with their capital standards just like our banks have to do if they are doing business in the United States of America? Ms. YELLEN. Yes, we have said that foreign banking organizations that have over $50 billion in size will have to form intermediate holding companies and to organize their activities other than branch and agency activities in an intermediate holding company that will be subject to the same regulations as U.S.-based banking organizations. That is the essence of the proposal that we finalized 2 weeks ago. Senator SHELBY. Thank you. My time is up. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Schumer. Senator SCHUMER. Thank you. And thank you, Chair Yellen. You are off to a great start as far as I am concerned. I just want to make one brief comment. I know that some of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle express amazement that the Fed would take extraordinary measures to boost growth. But if Congress had done more on the fiscal side to deal with the damage the economy suffered, the Fed would not have to do this, and yet some of the very same Senators and Congress Members who block all further needed investments in infrastructure and other things that used to have broad bipartisan support complain that the Fed is doing too much to help the economy, and it is sort of incredulous to me. You do not have to comment on that. But what do they expect you to do? Do they expect you to just stand here and let the economy get even worse, let job growth continue to slow? Fiscal is preferred, but it is not available because people have blocked it. My question, the first one, relates to tapering on the economy. I know you testified you were surprised—those were your words— VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00016 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 13 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER by the data in the jobs reports in December and January, but indicated at the time the Fed had no intention of altering its tapering program, despite the fact that the economy may not be showing the growth you originally anticipated. In your analysis of the data since then, have you seen any trends or additional information that has led you to reconsider slowing or pausing the tapering of the Fed’s bond buying? Ms. YELLEN. Well, Senator as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we have seen quite a bit of soft data over the last month or 6 weeks. It was, you know, the employment report, relatively low, below expectation growth in payrolls, and some of the housing numbers and retail sales and industrial production. So it is really quite a range of data—— Senator SCHUMER. Right. Ms. YELLEN.——that has been soft recently. Now, I think it is clear that unseasonably cold weather has played some role in much of that. There are many ways in which weather would have affected these areas. What we need to do and will be doing in the weeks ahead is to try to get a firmer handle on exactly how much of that set of soft data can be explained by weather and what portion, if any, is due to a softer outlook than we would have—— Senator SCHUMER. And if it is not mostly weather, would you consider pausing or changing the rate of tapering? Ms. YELLEN. So as we have said in our statement—and I would agree—asset purchases are not on a preset course. So if there is a significant change in the outlook, certainly we would be open to reconsidering. But I would not want to jump to conclusions here. Senator SCHUMER. Understood. My next question talks about some of the qualitative versus quantitative guidance. Fed Reserve President Lockhart said recently, ‘‘For the next couple of years, forward guidance may be the lead policy tool, arguably the most potent method we have for influencing financial conditions and economic results.’’ I appreciate the Fed’s use of forward guidance as another tool to influence market conditions, but I would like to get your thoughts on how it can be most effective. Based on the minutes of the last meeting, it seems the FOMC had significant discussion about revising down the Fed’s forward guidance which originally stated it would consider raising interest rates once employment fell below the threshold of 6.5. In your testimony before the House, you indicated earlier this month that the 6.5 threshold would not be the only factor that is taken into account. Policymakers would be looking at what you called a ‘‘broad range of data’’ on labor market, job creation, and other indications. So it seems you are inclined to offer a more qualitative approach rather than the numerical threshold of 6.5. Given the stated importance of forward guidance, which it is these days more than ever, and the reality that, to be effective, the guidance must be trusted by the market, would you agree with President Bullard who said he would favor discarding numeral thresholds and much more work toward a more qualitative approach which would give you more flexibility and yet still give the markets guidance? VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00017 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 14 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Ms. YELLEN. So there are many different views on our Committee about what the right way is to cast forward guidance, and this is something that we have been debating for a long time and will undoubtedly continue to discuss as the unemployment rate gets closer to this 6.5-percent threshold. I think we have already clearly indicated—and I emphasized in my testimony—that the unemployment rate is not a sufficient statistic for the state of the labor market. There is no hard and fast rule about what unemployment rate constitutes full employment, and we need to consider a broad range of indicators. Many members of the Committee have emphasized this point, and it is one I agree with. It moves in the direction of qualitative guidance. On the other hand, we do want to give markets as much of an indication of how we expect to conduct policy as we can. We did provide some additional information in December which we reiterated in January. What we said was that the Committee, based on its full assessment of all of the data on the labor market and inflation pressures and inflation expectations, financial developments, taking all of that into account, we believed that we could only begin to raise our target interest rate well past the time that the unemployment rate has declined below 6.5 percent, and we said that that was true especially if inflation remained low, because an important factor is that inflation is running well below our 2 percent target. So I guess this is qualitative guidance, but I feel that what we provided then was additional information. Senator SCHUMER. In a sense you moved away from a purely quantitative measure and are moving more toward the qualitative, which I think is a good thing. Thank you. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Corker. Senator CORKER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I was a little surprised at my friend from New York’s partisan comments. I can only assume he had too much coffee this morning. But it is good to see you. Senator SCHUMER. It is a statement of fact about the economy. It is not supposed to be partisan. Senator CORKER. So, Madam Chairman, since it is a the first, how would you like to be addressed? Ms. YELLEN. ‘‘Madam Chair’’ is fine or ‘‘Chairman’’ will—— Senator CORKER. OK, Madam Chair. Very good to have you here. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator CORKER. I have met some of the nominees for the Fed Board. You and I talked about that a little bit in the back room, and I want to say that I am impressed, especially I want to make reference to Stanley Fischer. I think you may have had something to do with him being nominated. I think the former Chairman may have had something to do with that. But very impressive person, and I think he is a very good complement to your background. So I am glad that he is being put forth and look forward to him being confirmed. You and I, when we were having the confirmation hearing, talked a little bit about financial instability in the hearing, and I know there has been a lot of discussion about inflation and con- VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00018 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 15 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER cerns, and I know Senator Shelby asked you some questions about quantitative easing. But we addressed in your confirmation process the concern about markets overheating and long-term zero interest rate policy. Maybe the threat on the front end is not inflation. Maybe it is instability in our financial markets, and I am wondering if you have seen any signs of that, if you have refined any thinking about how you might address that should that occur. Ms. YELLEN. Senator, I agree that an environment of low rates, low interest rates, especially when it prevails for a long time—and we have had a long period of low interest rates—can give rise to behavior that poses threats to financial stability. And, therefore, we need to be looking at that very carefully, and we are doing so in a very thorough way, I believe. There are a number of things that we are monitoring: measures of asset prices and whether or not they appear to be diverging from historical norms, namely, it is hard, but trying to spot any asset bubbles, price bubbles that might be emerging. We are looking at leverage, which buildup in leverage can be very dangerous to the financial system and pose stability risks. We are looking at trends in leverage. We are looking at credit growth to see whether or not that has potentially worrisome trends. In addition to that, we are looking, particularly through our stress tests, at financial institutions. In a low interest rate environment, we have to worry about whether or not they are appropriately dealing with interest rate risk. We have been looking at that, and, in fact, our current stress test includes a special portion related to interest rate risk. Senator CORKER. And as you are looking—I am going to run out of time, and our Chairman is very punctual—have you found anything yet that gives you concern? And do you have a tool with a zero interest rate policy to address that, if you do? Ms. YELLEN. I would say at this stage broadly I do not see concerns, but there are pockets, a few things that we have identified that do concern us. For example, underwriting standards and leveraged lending clearly appear to be deteriorating. We have addressed that with supervisory guidance and special exams, and we will continue to be very vigilant in that area. That is worrisome to us. There are a few areas within asset price valuations. Broadly speaking, I would not worry, but there are a few areas where I would be concerned. Many people have emphasized farmland is a concern, farmland prices. So there are a few areas. We have regulatory and supervisory tools. To me, they should be the first line of defense. But I do not rule out monetary policy. Senator CORKER. And just if I could—thank you very much for that detailed response. We were just in London meeting with regulators there, and I know there is a large concern about Balkanization of our markets, and I know there was some discussion about trying to address that with the EU–U.S. trade agreement. I think now that the Administration is not interested in that, but I just want to raise that as an issue that I think does need to be addressed, and I realize the Fed will take, with Tarullo, a major lead in that. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00019 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 16 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER And let just—the final point. The orderly liquidation title in Title II that was put together, and I think a lot of us worked on it together, and I am proud of that Title II. It is not exactly the way any of us would like for it to be, but one of the things, even though it was orderly liquidation, I think the FDIC realized when they went through the process, these entities are so intertwined, there is really not a way to orderly liquidate. And so instead, they are coming in through single entry to the holding company. Ms. YELLEN. Yes. Senator CORKER. One of the things that I think all of us have concern about is making sure, if we are going to use that process— and I think it is sound, personally—that we ensure there is enough debt at the holding company level; otherwise, there will be other kinds of distortions. Where is that right now? And when are we going to come up with a ruling that gives clarity so that we know absolutely we have things in place should a large institution fail? Ms. YELLEN. So I agree with you that this is extremely important. It is high on our list. We have been working globally with other regulators and looking ourselves at a requirement that holding companies have a minimum amount of long-term debt that would be loss absorbing, that would permit an orderly liquidation. We would need enough long-term debt both to absorb losses and also recapitalize a company in a Title II liquidation. And we are looking to come out with a rule that would require that. We are working with the FDIC on this. Senator CORKER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I hope it is a very large amount of debt held at the holding company level. OK. Thank you. Ms. YELLEN. I agree with you. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Menendez. Senator MENENDEZ. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Madam Chairman, let me ask you, the number of long-term unemployed Americans has continued to go down, but it is still exceptionally high by historical standards, over 3.6 million. As you know, long-term unemployment could have serious consequences for individuals and their families and can permanently impair the growth prospects for our economy if workers are stuck on the sidelines for too long and their skills and networks become out of date. Do you feel that the Fed’s policies have been successful in helping to reduce the number of long-term unemployed Americans? Is there anything more that the Fed can do, or is there congressional action that you might believe is necessary in order to meet that challenge? And is boosting demand the best way to reduce longterm unemployment right now based on our current economic conditions? Ms. YELLEN. Well, Senator, we are very focused on and concerned about the high level of long-term unemployment. It is really unprecedented to see something like 37 percent of unemployed in long spells. What can we do? We can try to foster a stronger labor market generally. We do not have tools that are targeted at long-term unemployment. But in taking account of how much slack there is in the labor market and attempting to stimulate demand so that there is more spending, there is more production, and more jobs in the VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00020 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 17 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER economy, we have seen long-term unemployment edge down very slowly. It is taking a long time for those people to be reabsorbed into the labor force, but our approach is to foster a stronger recovery and try to get the economy back to full employment, and I think they will see gains. Senator MENENDEZ. So if increasing demand is part of it, is there anything else that you think that the Congress—maybe not the Fed—should do in order to achieve getting those numbers, historically high numbers down even quicker? Ms. YELLEN. Well, I think it is also appropriate for Congress to look at what some of the special needs of long-term unemployed are. These are spelled that are very damaging to families, put great burdens on families both in terms of income and even health burdens that—burdens on children and marriages, and so I think it certainly is something that Congress could look at along with us. Senator MENENDEZ. Is skill sets, helping individuals with their skills sets, something that we should be considering? Ms. YELLEN. Yes, sometimes the long-term unemployed do need to acquire different skills in order to be reabsorbed into the job market. Senator MENENDEZ. Now, I know Chairman Johnson asked you a question on income and wealth inequality, and I want to follow that up in terms of monetary policy decisions. Over the last 20 years, the top 1 percent of earners has grown by more than 86 percent while incomes for the remaining 99 percent have grown by less than 7 percent. And even during our current recovery from the financial crisis, the top 1 percent have received 95 percent of the income gains over the last 3 years while real median income remains 9 percent below 1999 levels. So, of course, we all applaud those who achieve financial success, and we are thankful for that. But we are concerned that the vast majority of people in our country feel they are not sharing in the economic growth, and when widening income and wealth disparity make it harder for ordinary working families to move up the economic ladder, as studies have shown to be the case, it creates, I think, a greater challenge to our overall economic well-being. So my question is: How does the Fed account for income and wealth inequality in its monetary policy decisions? For example, the Fed is looking at broad statistics like GDP, but economic growth is only accruing to a small share of the population while the rest feel they are still in a recession. Is that something that the Fed would wait longer to tighten until broader-based growth takes place? Or is there a broader range of statistics, including measures of income and wealth, that the Fed should be considering? Ms. YELLEN. Well, I think that the trends that you have described in detail are extremely disturbing trends with very significant implications for our country, and I am personally and the Fed is very worried about these trends. The major thing that we can do is, as we try to assess the state of the labor market and appropriate policy, to look at a very broad range of statistics and metrics concerning the labor market, not just the unemployment rate but, in particular, other measures that suggest that the labor market is not functioning properly. The fact that we have seen very slow growth in wages, for example, I take as one of many pieces of infor- VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00021 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 18 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER mation suggesting that the labor market has not returned to normal and has quite a ways to go. And it is something that is appropriate for us to look at as we consider appropriate monetary policy. Senator MENENDEZ. So you are looking at a broad—you will look at a broad range of factors as you are making your decisions? Ms. YELLEN. Absolutely. Senator MENENDEZ. All right. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Vitter. Senator VITTER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you, Madam Chair, for being here and for your work. As you know, many of us, certainly including Senator Brown and I, are concerned about capital requirements at the biggest banks. Can you confirm that U.S. regulators are close to finalizing the supplementary leverage ratio that would impact that? And if so, when do you expect that final action to be taken? Ms. YELLEN. So this is high on our regulatory agenda for this coming year. We have out an initial proposal on this, and while I cannot give you an exact time, we will certainly be working with the other agencies to finalize this. Senator VITTER. Can you give us an exact timeframe, a general timeframe, when you would expect the Fed to act? Ms. YELLEN. In the not too distant future, I would say. Senator VITTER. OK. According to the Wall Street Journal, Vice Chairman Hoenig said that regulators are unlikely to change the draft proposal with regard to a 5-percent capital buffer against all large bank assets and a similar 6-percent buffer at their insured deposit-taking subsidiaries. In contrast to that, there has been concern that you might follow Europe’s lead in watering down some other provisions from the initial draft concerning things like a weaker treatment of derivatives and valuation of repurchase agreements. Can you give us any insight into where those things stand in your discussions? Ms. YELLEN. So, I mean, let me see if I understand what you mean here. When we came out with the proposal for the 5- and 6percent the holding companies—— Senator VITTER. Correct. Do you think there is any chance that will change in the final action? Ms. YELLEN. I mean, this is something we have been quite supportive of, and I am not envisioning—— Senator VITTER. OK. And then deeper in the weeds, if you will, there has been some suggestion that you could back off some other elements of the draft, for instance, on issues like the treatment of derivatives and valuation of repurchase agreements. Do you think that is any possibility? I would hope not. I think there are others on the panel who would hope not. I would encourage you to not weaken any elements of your draft. But is that under discussion? Ms. YELLEN. So I am not aware if it is under discussion. I would have to look into that. But my objective would be to come out with a strong proposal. We have increased greatly risk-based capital requirements. In light of that increase, I see leverage in risk-based capital is sort of belt and suspenders. It is definitely, in my view, appropriate to increase leverage requirements more or less in line with risk-based capital requirements. And—— VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00022 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 19 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Senator VITTER. Well, I would just encourage a strong final set of proposed—or set of rules as strong or stronger than the draft. So I would just encourage that. Let me move to one other topic I wanted to hit, and this is actually related to this too-big-to-fail issue which capital requirements are also about. A lot of us have a concern about the squeeze that community banks are getting in the financial sector. That has been a historic long-term trend. It has gotten even a lot worse since the 2007–08 crisis and since—and I would argue in some cases because of Dodd-Frank. So it is going from bad to worse in terms of a trend. If you look at Federal Reserve Board membership, there is also a trend, and it is away from representation of any community banking or community bank supervision experience. Let me just put a chart up. A chart is up, and this shows—it is a little busy. It is color-coded. This shows sort of the makeup of Federal Reserve Board members over time, and any community bank and community bank supervision experience, which is the yellow, is limited, and there has been a huge growth over time in terms of folks with a pure economics and academic background. In particular, right now there is one person with that sort of community bank or community bank supervision experience, and she is leaving. So soon there will be none. What would your thoughts be about a requirement to have at least one person in the future with that type of community bank or community bank supervision experience? Ms. YELLEN. So I have had the privilege of working with Governor Raskin and previously Governor Duke, and I can certainly say that they made huge contributions in the community banking area, and the background that they were able to bring was extremely helpful to us in crafting regulations and approaching our supervision responsibilities with sensitivity to the special issues that community banks face. I hope the Administration would consider an appointment of someone with that kind of experience, and I can certainly attest that it is very helpful to us in doing our work. Senator VITTER. Great. Thank you. Thank you, Madam Chair. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Brown. Senator BROWN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Madam Chair, welcome. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator BROWN. We are thrilled that you are here, and thank you for your public service up to this moment—— Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator BROWN.——and your continued service. Thank you for— I thank Senator Vitter for his comments and questions about capital standards and urge you—I appreciated your answer and urge you as quickly as possible, with OCC and FDIC, to move as quickly as possible. Thank you for your response to me about the real economy in your confirmation hearing. Last Friday, as the Board released transcripts of the 2008 FOMC meetings, the reading was interesting for those of us that find this stuff interesting. As you know, the Fed has a dual mission: fighting inflation, maximizing employment. But according to the New York Times, the September—the crucial, VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00023 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 20 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER probably most important of those, the September meeting on the eve of the Lehman bankruptcy, FOMC members mentioned, according to the minutes, inflation 129 times and recession 5 times. You speak forcefully, and have for some time, about the potential threats to the broader economy. This statistic implies that the institution overlooked what was happening on Main Street during this critical time. Now that you are Chair, convince us that we will not see meetings like that where the emphasis is so much more on inflation than full employment because—and that the focus will be more on ordinary Americans that bear the brunt of this economy. Ms. YELLEN. Well, I think as you know, I take the Fed’s dual mandate very seriously and believe we should be focused both on inflation and on unemployment. But to just try myself to put the 2008 situation in context, if you think about what happened within months of that September meeting, where perhaps people did not realize just how serious the deterioration in both the financial markets and the economy was about to get, you know, within days or months of that meeting, the most incredible array of programs had been rolled out by the Federal Reserve to address deteriorating economic conditions, an alphabet soup of programs to support credit, the availability and extension of credit throughout the economy, to provide liquidity not only to banking organizations but to markets that were really finding themselves deprived of it. And by December of 2008, even with all the mentions of inflation that you noted, the FOMC had certainly changed its focus and in December lowered the Federal funds rate to zero. So I think I was one of those who was urging more, faster, we need to get on this, but within 3 months, a great deal had been done, and since then we have been trying to do it. So in some sense, I think the Fed has responded. Senator BROWN. And to your credit, you looked better in those minutes than some of your colleagues did, but that is the past, and you look to the future. I want to follow up on some of the too-big-to-fail questions. In November, you said address too big to fail is among the most important goals of the post-crisis period. You mentioned capital requirements. You mentioned SIFI capital surcharges, resolution authority, long-term debt requirements, supplemental leverage ratio. You also have living wills and the authority to break up institutions if they pose a grave threat to the financial system. Despite all that, the Nation’s foremost expert on banking regulation, your once fellow Governor, Dan Tarullo, said on Tuesday that we are ‘‘not even close’’ to ending too-big-to-fail. It has been 5 years since the crisis. When are we going to be—you have the tools as the new Fed Chair. Why is it taking so long? And when is this going to be resolved? When can the financial—when will America’s financial community and the American people know that too-big-to-fail has actually ended? Ms. YELLEN. Well, I am slightly surprised that he said we are nowhere close, because I personally think we have made quite a lot of progress in putting in place regulations that will make a huge difference to this. Even in orderly resolution, I think it is important—we were just discussing the long-term debt requirement. There are thorny obstacles to resolving a failing firm having to do, VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00024 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 21 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER for example, with cross-border resolution issues, how to deal with the fact that laws in foreign countries could make it impossible— you know, could precipitate the ending of contracts that would cause a disorderly failure of a firm. But we are working very closely with our foreign counterparts to try to resolve these issues, and you gave a list of all the things—or some of the things that we have on the drawing board that we are hoping to finalize within months or during this year. Beyond that, we are working on shadow banking, our stress test capital in the banking system, the highest quality capital has doubled since the crisis. And I personally think we are making strides, and I am continuing—I am completely committed to seeing this agenda to fruition, and I am more encouraged about the progress that we are making. And I am committed to completing this. Senator BROWN. Thank you. One last comment, Mr. Chair. I apologize. I think that a quick—accelerating the rules that you and FDIC and OCC, without diluting those rules, is a really important not just substantive thing to do, but really important message to the financial community and to the public that you really do mean it and you mean business on this and you really do want to end too-big-to-fail. So thank you. Ms. YELLEN. Absolutely. I agree with you. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Heller. Senator HELLER. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Dr. Yellen, thank you for being here. Thanks for listening, being patient, and taking our questions. I know that as a former Chair of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, you have a pretty good understanding of the State of Nevada and its current economic conditions. It has been over 5 years now since we have had this economic collapse, and I want to take a quote from the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve who recently said that we are a lot closer to a normal economy than we have been in a long time. And I would stress that I can tell you right now Nevada is nowhere close to a normal economy. While maybe some parts of this country are experiencing some recovery, Nevada is still at 8.8 unemployment, second highest in the Nation, and many homeowners are still underwater. So I guess the question is: Do you feel that the struggle that Nevadans are currently experiencing, is this a new normal, according to the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, or a new economic reality? Ms. YELLEN. Well, I mean, as you know, Senator, Nevada was one of the hardest hit. It had one of the biggest booms in housing, and about—— Senator HELLER. In 20 years, yes. Ms. YELLEN.——the biggest bust of any market in this country, and I am well aware that an unusually large share of homeowners is underwater. You know, their prices have come up, and they are coming up in a way most rapidly in some of the areas like Las Vegas where they fell the most. But it is still going to be a long slog before things are back to normal in the housing market in Nevada and some of those hard-hit areas. Prices are moving back up. We see investors coming in and, you know, buying homes and converting them to rental housing. But credit is really hard for many VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00025 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 22 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER families to get, the ability to have home equity loans when it has been wiped out, and, unfortunately, Nevada is one of the States that has been most badly affected. Senator HELLER. Right. Any timeframe for a new normal or a normal economy? Ms. YELLEN. Some years, I think. Senator HELLER. Several years? Can you give me what your definition of ‘‘full employment’’ is? Ms. YELLEN. To me, it is a state of the job market in which people are able to find in a reasonable period of time jobs for which they are qualified, and there is no single metric, I would say, that would enable me to tell you when we have reached that. I would look at a broad range of indicators of the labor market. If I had to choose one metric, the unemployment rate is probably the best, and members of our Committee are not certain exactly what constitutes full employment but generally see a range of 5 to 6 percent or a little bit—in that area to be a state of full employment in the economy, but also looking at part-time employment, job flows, what is happening with wages, and a broader set of metrics I think is necessary. Senator HELLER. What is real unemployment today? Ms. YELLEN. Well, I am not sure exactly—some of the broadest measures of unemployment, like U6, which includes marginally attached workers and those who are part-time for economic reasons, namely, they cannot find full-time work, are around 13 percent. Senator HELLER. Around 13 percent. The Congressional Budget Office recently reported that President Obama’s proposal to raise the minimum wage would eliminate a half a million jobs. Some believe they are low-balling this figure. And I know that it is your job at the Fed to maximize employment. I would like to hear your thoughts on this soft economy and the impact of raising the minimum wage. Ms. YELLEN. Well, I think almost all economists think that the minimum wage has two main effects: one is to give higher wages to those who continue to have jobs and were earning the minimum wage; and then, second, that there would be some amount of negative impact on employment as a consequence. And there is considerable debates about just what the employment impact of it would be. CBO is as qualified as anyone to evaluate that literature, and I would not argue with their assessment. I mean, there are a range of studies, and they cited them, but, you know, I would not want to argue. They are good at this kind of evaluation and have opined on this. I think they also—I cannot remember the numbers involved, but indicated that a large number of individuals would see their incomes raised as a consequence. I think that is the tradeoff. Senator HELLER. Doctor, thank you. My time has run out. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Tester. Senator TESTER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I want to welcome Chair Yellen. Thank you for putting yourself forward for this job, and congratulations on a historic confirmation. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator TESTER. We were able to visit about a number of issues, and we are going to visit about them again. End users are one of VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00026 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 23 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER those issues that we discussed, clarifying the end-user exemption from the margin that was included in Dodd-Frank, given the minimal risks that they pose to the system. As you know—we have visited—Chairman Bernanke, your predecessor, and Governor Tarullo have both indicated comfort with the intent of the exemption given the lack of systemic risk posed by nonfinancial entity end users, but concern about the ability of the Fed to achieve that intent. Since the proposed rule issued back in 2011, there has been a number of additional developments, including most notably the finalization of the IOSCO framework in September setting forth globally agreed to margin standards. Can you share with us where the Fed’s thinking stands on this issue in light of those developments? Ms. YELLEN. So the Fed continues to think that end users do not pose systemic risks, and we will come back and will be crafting a rule in light of the international negotiations, and I believe that we will do our very best to make sure that there are no undue burdens imposed on end users who do not pose systemic risk. Senator TESTER. I thank you for that. And I know your plate is full and there are many issues that you are dealing with every day, and people are always asking you when is it going to come out, so I will do it. When is the timing on that front? Ms. YELLEN. I cannot give you a date certain, but—— Senator TESTER. Before the end of the year? Ms. YELLEN. I believe so. Senator TESTER. OK. The Chairman talked about banks and insurers’ regulatory policies. In the final rule released last week, Section 165 of Dodd-Frank, the Fed declined to apply the rule to nonbank financial companies at this time and indicated a desire to basically tailor this rule for insured SIFIs. Can you tell me more about what the Fed has in mind with respect to the tailoring? Ms. YELLEN. So we understand that the business models of insurance companies are quite different than those of banks. There are a number of ways, the asset liability matching separate accounts and so forth, that require tailored design of capital and liquidity requirements so they are appropriate to those business models. And we are trying to take the time that is necessary to understand in detail the businesses of these companies and what is appropriate. I would say again, though, that we do have some constraints in what we are able to do because of the Collins amendment. Senator TESTER. OK. So could you give me some insight into what extent might the tailoring with respect to this rule provide a road map for how the Fed might seek to tailor other rulemakings? Ms. YELLEN. I mean, I believe we in general tried to tailor our rulemakings; I am not sure what area in particular you have in mind. Senator TESTER. Well, with insurers particularly, but others, too, if you might. Ms. YELLEN. Well, I mean, generally we try to tailor our rules so that they do not pose undue burdens on companies that do not pose risks to the system. I would say, for example, in the case of community banks, while I know community banks are under many VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00027 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 24 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER burdens and it is not easy to run a community bank, for our part we are trying to avoid burdening community banks with the same level of regulatory complexity that we would impose on a systemically important institution. And the same is true in other areas where we have the ability to tailor rules to make them appropriate. Senator TESTER. OK. Thank you. And in regard to international insurance regulation, I just want to say how much I appreciate the Fed moving in the direction that you spoke of earlier, and I very much look forward to working with you to ensure that we do not force insurers into a bank-centric regulatory model. I also want to note how critically important that this sentiment and the direction that the Fed is heading in terms of tailoring regulations for insurers is fully reflected in any international negotiations regarding capital standards that you may be a part of in your capacity as a member of the Financial Stability Board. I just want to thank you for your good work. I, as many others on this Committee have already expressed, am very impressed with your work and look forward to working with you as we go down into the future. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you very much, Senator. I appreciate that. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Toomey. Senator TOOMEY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and Madam Chairman, thank you very much for being here. Welcome on your first visit in your new role. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator TOOMEY. You know, I have been very concerned about this monetary policy for some time, and I wonder if you could for the Committee give us a sense of how you would quantify the benefits that the economy has enjoyed, assuming you believe there are benefits, from this unprecedented experiment that we have been engaged in. A lot of very reputable economists look at traditionally understood transmission mechanisms to be asset price reflation translate into more spending, and the quantification of that gives some very, very modest numbers, but I wonder how you quantify the benefits from the quantitative easing we have had. Ms. YELLEN. So I do not have a quantitative estimate that I can present to you today. There are a range of estimates in the literature. You know, we hit the so-called zero bound in December of 2008. We lowered the Fed’s overnight interest rate target to zero. Standard rules like the Taylor rule would have called for substantially more accommodation. Rules like that would have said that we should go to minus 400 or 500 basis points if we could, and we could not. And so we looked for other ways to provide the accommodation that the economy seemed to need. So asset purchases and forward guidance, I think they have served to push down longerterm interest rates. We have seen some significant recovery in housing. The backup in rates we have seen last spring and summer clearly seems to have had a negative impact on housing. And so I think it is fair to say that we were successful in pushing down longer-term rates through these policies. We did see a positive response in housing. I think in the area of vehicle sales, interest-sensitive spending has responded. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00028 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 25 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Senator TOOMEY. I do not mean to—I have just got such limited time. I have got a few—so I am aware of the changing in economic statistics. But the point is you do not have a quantification for how much of that is attributable to the quantitative easing. I guess the second question I have—— Ms. YELLEN. Well, there are estimates that—— Senator TOOMEY. But there is not one that is—— Ms. YELLEN.——a number of people have had. Senator TOOMEY. That you have endorsed or that you subscribe to. Ms. YELLEN. I have cited some, and I will—— Senator TOOMEY. OK. Ms. YELLEN.——provide you details on some that I have cited. Senator TOOMEY. On the risk side of this equation, I know you did mention some of the things you are looking for. Many people believe that last decade the unusual monetary policy, including maintaining negative real interest rates for an extended period of time, at the short end of the curve anyway, contributed significantly to the housing bubble that later burst, of course. Do you agree that that was a contributing factor? And, second, among the risks that you look at, as we hopefully move to normalcy, which ones concern you the most? And then I have got one last really short question. Ms. YELLEN. So I think it will take awhile for scholars to decide exactly what role easing monetary policy had in contributing to the financial crisis. I would not argue with the idea that a long period of low interest rates does contribute to the buildup of leverage and may have touched off a housing bubble. But I think on the regulatory side and the supervision side, there were also failings that contributed importantly to the crisis. We are watching very carefully for the development of any such excesses. We are very focused on not allowing such a thing to happen again. And while there might be a few areas where I have concerns such as deteriorating underwriting standards and leveraged lending, farmland prices, a few things, I do not see those excesses having developed at this point. With respect to housing prices, they have rebounded significantly, but remain not back to their peak levels by any means, and price/rent ratios in housing certainly remain in normal ranges. So I do not think we have promoted those kinds of excesses, certainly not at this stage. Senator TOOMEY. Thank you. My last question. You have stressed a couple of times the importance that you attach to fulfilling the congressional legislative mandate to maximize employment as well as the other portions of the mandate. My question is: Would the behavior of the Fed, with the actions and the policies of the Fed, be any different at all if the Fed had only a single mandate and that were price stability? Ms. YELLEN. So over these last several years, I think the answer is no, because at the moment—— Senator TOOMEY. Well, how about today? Ms. YELLEN. Well, inflation is running well below our objective, and the economy has fallen short of full employment. So both of VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00029 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 26 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER these—both pieces of the mandate are giving us the identical signal, namely, we need an accommodative policy. Now, there can be situations where there could be conflicts between the objectives, and in that sense, it would make a difference, it might make a difference to have a dual mandate rather than a single mandate. At the moment there is no such conflict. But my personal view is that this mandate has served us quite well, and most central banks, even if they have an inflation target, also have a mandate to take account of economic growth and stability. Senator TOOMEY. Although the ECB does not, right? Ms. YELLEN. That is true. Senator TOOMEY. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Hagan. Senator HAGAN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And, Chairman Yellen, welcome to the Committee. I was so pleased at the beginning of the hearing to hear Chairman Johnson’s introduction and welcome to you as the first woman to head up the Federal Reserve, so welcome. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you so much. Senator HAGAN. My questions—my first one is: During the January 2014 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Committee authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to conduct a series of fixed-rate, overnight, reverse repurchase operations involving U.S. Government securities and securities that are guaranteed by agencies of the United States. The authorization runs through January 30th of next year, of 2015, and specifies an offering rate of zero to five basis points that you have the authority to waive. The program, which has been steadily extended and expanded, is being considered for use in supporting the implementation of monetary policy. So I want to ask you some questions about this. Can you begin by describing this program, its scale, and then your vision for its expanded use? And also, if you can talk about the dollar volume of these operations. Ms. YELLEN. So this fixed-rate, overnight, reverse repurchase facility is one where we are essentially borrowing from entities other than banking organizations. We are offering to pay a low fixed rate and are offering our counterparties, in return for their loans to us, collateral which comes in the form either of Treasury or agency mortgage-backed securities. And we are engaging in this program—as you mentioned, this is something technical, but we want to be able to firmly control short-term money market rates. When the time ultimately comes, which it is not—it is probably a long way off, but when the time comes that we do want to tighten monetary policy and raise our target for short-term interest rates, we would like to be able to execute that in a very smooth way so that we have good control over the level of short-term interest rates. And paying interest on reserves, that is something—that is one tool we will be using to boost when the time comes the level of shortterm rates, but using this new facility can also help us gain better control, I think, than we could through interest on reserves alone. So at the moment, we have been experimenting with developing this facility, making sure we can smoothly execute these transactions with a range of potential lenders. We have put limits both on the magnitude of loans that we will be willing to take on and VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00030 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 27 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER what we are paying, as you mentioned, the limit so far has been five basis points. We are pleased by what we are seeing about our ability to carry out these exercises, and it is part of prudent planning that the Fed has been doing for quite some time. Senator HAGAN. And what about the dollar volume? Ms. YELLEN. It varies from day to day, depending on how much interest there is in the markets. It is up to the markets to decide. We have typically had limits on the amount that any one firm can lend to us overnight. Senator HAGAN. It was 3 billion, now it is up to 5 billion? Ms. YELLEN. Yeah. I think there were some days at the end of the year, given the pressures that existed toward the end of the year, when I believe the volume rose to 30 or 40 billion, but I can get you some—I can get you exact details on the quantities, if you would like further information. Senator HAGAN. What are the monetary policy effects of raising this offer rate beyond the range set in the FOMC’s resolution? Ms. YELLEN. Well, these are very, very low rates. Senator HAGAN. Right. Ms. YELLEN. And so we are not raising rates by doing this. We are only going up to five basis points. We are paying 25 basis points on interest on reserves, and there is really only any takeup at times when there would be, you know, pressure for unusual reasons for rates to fall below that. But we are not pushing up the general level of short-term rates with this facility at this time. Senator HAGAN. My time has run out. Thank you very much. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Manchin. Senator MANCHIN. Thank you very much. And congratulations, Madam Chairman, and I am so pleased that I was able to vote for you on final confirmation. Ms. YELLEN. Much appreciated. Senator MANCHIN. And that was a lot—and you and I had nice conversations concerning the quantitative easing. Ms. YELLEN. Yes, thank you. Senator MANCHIN. And I appreciate the job you are doing. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator MANCHIN. Let me just say that I sent you, along with five other regulators, a letter yesterday expressing my concerns with Bitcoin, and I fundamentally believe it is being used primarily for illegal activities. It allows scam artists and hackers to steal money from hard-working Americans, and it is a bad form of currency because it has a deflation problem. Most recently the major exchange for Bitcoin unexpectedly went dark, which led to $400 million in Bitcoins evaporation overnight. I am concerned—other countries are ahead of the curve by already issuing regulations to protect their citizens, which might leave Americans truly holding the bag. And I would like to know your view on the Bitcoin. And what actions does the Fed have planned on regulating this unstable currency? Ms. YELLEN. Senator, I think it is important to understand that this is payment innovation that is taking place entirely outside the banking industry, and to the best of my knowledge, there is no intersection at all in any way between Bitcoin and banks that the Federal Reserve has the ability to supervise and regulate. So the VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00031 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 28 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Federal Reserve simply does not have authority to supervise or regulate Bitcoin in any way. I think my understanding is that FinCEN and the Department of Justice have—I mean, one concern here with Bitcoin is the potential for money laundering. I think that they have indicated that their money-laundering statutes are adequate to meet their own enforcement needs. So the Fed does not have authority with respect to Bitcoin, but it certainly would be appropriate, I think, for Congress to ask questions about what the right legal structure would be for, you know, virtual currencies that involve nontraditional players that are not regulated by—— Senator MANCHIN. Let me just say—and I am so sorry, because our time—you know how our time runs here. Ms. YELLEN. Sure. Senator MANCHIN. If there is going to be a new American exchange for the Bitcoins, they are going to be using banks. If this exchange is using banks, you all will have—— Ms. YELLEN. If they use banks, but my understanding is that Bitcoin does not touch banks. It is not settled or cleared through—— Senator MANCHIN. Why did other governments—why did other countries believe they had to get involved? Ms. YELLEN. Well, you could get involved, if Congress wants to get involved and set up a supervisory regime. Senator MANCHIN. OK. Ms. YELLEN. I think it is not so easy to regulate Bitcoin because there is no central issuer or network operator to regulate. This is a decentralized—— Senator MANCHIN. OK. What we will do—what we will do is I think probably, if we can, further explore this and get some recommendations and see what our ramifications would be. We would really appreciate that. Ms. YELLEN. Sure. And we would be happy to work with you. Senator MANCHIN. OK. Ms. YELLEN. We are looking at this. Senator MANCHIN. We will do it. Ms. YELLEN. And we would be glad to talk to you about it. Senator MANCHIN. OK. My other question is going to be on community banks. I know we have spoken about community banks. But a new study just released this morning by the Mercatus Center showed that Dodd-Frank is having a negative impact on community banks. It just came out this morning. Most community banks have had to hire at least one additional compliance officer, and many have had to hire two. It does not seem like much, but former Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, who I know you know very well, has said hiring one additional employee would reduce the return on assets by 23 basis points for many small banks. In other words, 13 percent of banks with assets of less than $50 million would go from profitable to unprofitable, which is very concerning. In my great State of West Virginia, you know, community banks are our lifeblood, and it has really caused a problem here. So based on the new study, 13 percent of banks may be unprofitable simply because they had to hire a new compliance officer to deal with the burdensome Dodd-Frank. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00032 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 29 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER What can the Feds do to protect these banks other than just asking us to do our job? Ms. YELLEN. So we have tried in all of our rulemakings to tailor regulations so that changes that are really meant to reduce systemic risk that these banks do not contribute to, that we are not burdening them. I mean, we have thought it appropriate that even community banks have appropriate capital and appropriate quality of capital, and so there have been some new standards that have applied to community banks. But what I can pledge is that we will in all of our rulemakings do our very best to minimize burden on community banks, and we will listen very carefully through our contacts with—— Senator MANCHIN. You can see the burden that—— Ms. YELLEN.——the community banks to understand what the burdens are and to minimize them where we possibly can. Senator MANCHIN. That report just came out, and my time is up, but I have more questions that I will submit for the record. But one thing I would like to say and hope you would consider, just yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s central bank engineered—and I repeat, engineered—the recent decline of its country’s currency, which is yet another clear example of currency manipulation. And we are so concerned about that, ma’am. So I will submit these for you. Ms. YELLEN. OK. Senator MANCHIN. Thank you. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Warren. Senator WARREN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and welcome, Chair Yellen. It is good to see you here. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator WARREN. So back at your confirmation hearing, you said you thought the Fed’s supervisory and regulatory responsibilities were as important as the monetary policy responsibilities, and I agree. But I think current Fed practices do not reflect those values. So while the Fed’s Board of Governors votes on every important monetary policy decision, the Board rarely votes on issues like whether to settle enforcement actions. Last year, the Fed reached its largest settlement in its history— $9.3 billion—with mortgage servicers, affecting more than 4 million families. But it was the Fed’s staff that worked out that arrangement, and the Fed Board did not even vote on it. So 2 weeks ago, Congressman Cummings and I sent a letter to you recommending that the Fed change its rules so that the Board would have to vote before any major settlement. Do you support such a change? Ms. YELLEN. Senator, I think that you have raised very important questions about this, and I do think it is appropriate for us to make changes, and I fully expect that we will. Senator WARREN. And, in principle, support what we have asked for in this letter, that is, clear and concrete evidence that the Board is involved in supervisory and regulatory policy. Ms. YELLEN. It is completely appropriate for the Board to be fully involved in important decisions, and I—— Senator WARREN. And voting is a good way to do that. Ms. YELLEN. I fully intend to make sure that we are. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00033 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 30 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Senator WARREN. Thank you. Thank you. Now, I want to ask about another aspect of the mortgage settlement. When the deal was struck, the Fed had a big press release to announce a $9.3 billion settlement. But it turned out that of that $9.3 billion, $5.7 billion was in the form of credits for what the Fed described in its press release as ‘‘assistance to borrowers such as loan modifications and forgiveness of deficiency judgments.’’ What the press release did not say is how the credits would be calculated, and later it came to light that under the agreement, mortgage companies could get away with actually paying only a fraction of that $5.7 billion. Now, the fine print in this settlement could potentially reduce the direct relief to borrowers by literally billions of dollars. So Senator Coburn and I recently introduced a bill, Truth in Settlements Act, which would require every agency to publicly disclose the key details of their settlement agreements, including the method of calculating those agreements, whether it is tax deductible and so on. And the disclosure would be required up front at the time the settlement is announced. Now, the Fed does not have to wait for Congress to do that. You could voluntarily adopt that public disclosure now. Will you do that? Ms. YELLEN. So I agree with you it is important for us to disclose more and to disclose as much as we can, and we will look at that very carefully and try to provide more information. Senator WARREN. So, in principle, we are talking about more disclosure here. Ms. YELLEN. Correct. Senator WARREN. I think this is really important because this is about accountability. We want to be able to hold our financial institutions accountable, but it also means accountability for our regulatory institutions. Ms. YELLEN. Agreed. It is a principle I endorse. Senator WARREN. Good. Thank you. And I want to just follow up quickly, if I can, on Senator Brown’s question about too-big-to-fail. You said that we have made significant progress but much work remains to be done, and I agree. But I would note that since the financial crisis in 2008, the five largest financial institutions are 38 percent larger than they were back then. So my question is: What evidence would you need to see before you could declare with confidence that too-big-to-fail has ended? Ms. YELLEN. So I am not positive that we can declare with confidence that too-big-to-fail has ended until it is tested in some way. I mean, I do believe that there are demonstrable improvements in terms of the amount of capital and liquidity that we have put in place, both through stress testing and Dodd-Frank regulations. There is more to come in the form of SIFI surcharges and likely a supplemental leverage ratio. You know, there is a whole agenda here of minimum debt requirements. I think it is important to feel that we have solved too-big-to-fail that we have the confidence that if an institution were to get in trouble, that we could actually resolve that institution. Senator WARREN. And I am over time, so I really will quit, Mr. Chairman. He is strict with us, but I just want to draw in on this VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00034 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 31 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER a little bit. So long as the markets believe that too-big-to-fail has not ended, and they demonstrate that by reducing capital costs for the banks that are perceived to be those that the Government would rescue, do we still have a too-big-to-fail problem? Ms. YELLEN. Well, the markets may think that we will rescue such an institution and may not end up believing us until we put it through resolution. So we cannot guarantee that they have an appropriate view of how we are going to handle such a situation, but I do think it is appropriate to look at estimates of subsidies and so forth in judging what progress we are making. I do not think it is definitive, but it is certainly appropriate to keep track of those markets metrics. And, I mean, we see that rating agencies are changing their methodology, diminishing the amount of their estimates of the amount of support that would be forthcoming. And I think as we, you know, complete our work on orderly liquidation, putting in place minimum debt requirements and working with foreign supervisors to feel we really could effect an orderly liquidation if it came to it, that that estimate of market subsidy should certainly come down. Senator WARREN. Well, thank you very much, and I will look forward to our continuing to track those data. Ms. YELLEN. Very good. Senator WARREN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Warner. Senator WARNER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Madam Chairman, you are on the home stretch. Ms. YELLEN. Thank you. Senator WARNER. Since my friend Senator Warren raised the point that I know Senator Brown has raised repeatedly, you know, I came at this from a different perspective, and I think this is a very valid debate. One of the things, as you go through the tools that Dodd-Frank gave you, that I think that might help make the case is in your, in effect, blessing of the resolution plans, as you are, I know, well aware, you have the ability if there is an institution that has such a behemoth that it has its tentacles everywhere, that through resolution could not be orderly put through resolution, you have your ability to use that power to disentangle or take away part of that institution, which might be a great signal, because I do think there are—I do not want to say this with Sherrod not in the room, but, you know, he continues to make a point that it would be bad for us to have to wait until we have the moment of crisis to fully feel whether we have fully got it right. I think showing strong evidence along the path, because I do think you have— rather than—I have been concerned about arbitrary asset caps being the right test, that you have some of those tools, and using some of those tools in advance of a crisis might be—might make some of more assured. One editorial comment. Second editorial comment, following up on Senator Manchin’s comments about community banks and smaller institutions, I think there were a number of us who felt very strongly as we went through Dodd-Frank that we tried to put—by putting that $10 billion cap in terms of some of the regulations that did not fall below on those smaller institutions, I think it was good in theory. The challenge has been, as best practices get kind of built into the regu- VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00035 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 32 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER lators’ mind-set, even though there may not be a legal requirement for these additional regulatory obligations, for these smaller institutions, I think it has become kind of best practice model. So I know earlier on when Sheila Bair was head of the FDIC, there were, in effect, jawboning efforts and others. I would encourage you and your colleagues at FDIC and other regulators, because this is a—you know, when compliance is the fastest growing area in the finance industry, that should be of some concern. In some institutions, it needs to be, but in some of our smaller institutions, it—we are, I think, affecting the market in a way, at least from this Senator’s standpoint, was not what we hoped to do in putting our smaller banks at such a disadvantage. There may be ways through guidance or other things that you can nudge our regulators. Part of this I think is just a mind-set that you could come back to. My time is going quickly. Let me just ask two questions totally unrelated so I can get them out before the Chairman gavels me out. One is—and I know you have been hit on almost every subject, and these two are going to be completely out of—maybe not total left field. One, although an area again that Senator Warren has raised a lot, student debt now at $1 trillion north of our credit card debt. I feel this may be kind of the next looming financial crisis, lots of different ideas on how we get about it. Part of that has been, as we all know—at least I believe is because of decreasing direct Federal and State assistance to higher education. And we have kind of said—made this addiction to debt amongst our students. I would like a comment on that. And then also I would like a comment on an issue that I have raised before, and I know you have not—you felt I perhaps overstated it, but, you know, with our financial institutions now having $2.4 trillion in excess reserves deposited at the Fed, and I know that 25-basis-point interest rate you pay you feel is not that much, I would simply say that, you know, when you have got other central banks like the Bank of Denmark, which is actually made negative, that has pushed their institutions to get more of that money lent out, which actually then might assuage Senator Shelby because you might not have to do as many asset purchases if some of these banks were doing more to stimulate and get that capital back out into the marketplace. So I really do believe the excess reserves—I hope you will comment on that as well. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I got that all done at 12 seconds left. Ms. YELLEN. So with respect to student debt, I mean, clearly the outstanding volume of Government-supplied student debt has escalated. On the one hand, I think it is a good thing because there are these huge differentials between what more and less educated people earn, and we want people to have access to education to be able to improve their skills. But on the other hand, it may be that sometimes they do not quite know what they are buying and what the education that they may be acquiring, you know, it is important for them to understand what are the placement rates and job experiences of the schools that they are paying to go to. It is not obvious that that is always readily available. And then, again, because student debt is something that you cannot get rid of in bankruptcy, VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00036 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 33 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER individuals who take it on can really be faced with very substantial burdens if they encounter financial difficulties, and, you know, that is really of some concern. On the interest on reserves, I recognize the argument that you are making. I think that lowering that rate would have very limited—it goes in the right direction, but would have a very limited effect on bank lending. We have worried about what impact it would have on money markets that we operate in, and not wanting to disrupt, completely disrupt money market activities, it is something we have considered and could consider going forward. But there are conflicting things that are going on there. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Merkley. Senator MERKLEY. Thank you very much, Mr. Chair. And thank you for your testimony before our Committee. I want to focus on a report that was released yesterday by Senators Carl Levin and John McCain, a bipartisan report that chronicled how Credit Suisse helped thousands of wealthy Americans evade U.S. taxes by stashing their money in Swiss banks. It highlighted flagrant abuses where employees of the bank came to the United States to seek wealthy new recruits at golf tournaments and bank-sponsored events, but telling U.S. officials they were simply here for tourism. They even set up special meeting rooms at airports and destroyed account statements that had been reviewed. Billions of dollars of U.S. taxes were dodged in the course of this with the help of the bank, and it is doing business in the United States under the supervision of the Federal Reserve Board. Now, this report, very thoroughly researched, is critical of our own Department of Justice for failing to prosecute or use the leverage at its disposal of a bank operating in the United States. Senator Levin rightly pointed out if the Swiss bank does not want to or cannot comply with U.S. law, maybe it should not do business in the United States. This case has reminders or echoes of the HSBC case we saw just a year ago, flagrant violations through transactions carefully structured to keep U.S. officials out of the loop, and once discovered, an unwillingness by the Bernanke regulators and DOJ to use their authorities to hold anyone accountable. As Senators Levin and McCain asked the CEO to admit yesterday, and he did admit to, not one person was fired for flagrant, willful violations of U.S. law from the CEO on down. It is the same story for HSBC and, frankly, for any other number of other banks that were involved in predatory transactions that hurt American citizens. So I guess my question is this: We have a situation where the Government refused—and this is the Government of Switzerland— and blocked the identification of the folks who were stashing their money in Switzerland. We are talking about 22,000 U.S. customers with Swiss accounts, of which less than—or about 1 percent, the names were shared with the United States. If they are not going to share the names for these illegal activities, should the Federal Reserve Board be using its regulatory power to basically say if you cannot play by the rules, you cannot bank in the United States? VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00037 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 34 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Ms. YELLEN. Well, you know, certainly in our work with institutions, it is incumbent on us to make sure that they comply with the law, and when there are violations of the law, we will refer— have referred it and will refer it to the Department of Justice if there is criminal behavior that is involved. And the Department of Justice should be pursuing that, and I think the behavior that Senator Levin uncovered with respect to this institution is both illegal and highly unacceptable, and it should be pursued. Senator MERKLEY. So certainly a criminal action being referred to the Department of Justice is appropriate, but you also have powers. You have powers for how banks operate in the United States that are separate and independent of the Department of Justice. Should the Federal Reserve be using these powers in reaction to this type of criminal behavior? Ms. YELLEN. Well, so our obligation has to do with safety and soundness, and to the extent that these practices are illegal and we have an institution that is discovered not to be complying with the law, we have an obligation to act to make sure that it comes into compliance. And if we detect behavior that is criminal, it is our obligation to refer that to the Justice Department for prosecution. Senator MERKLEY. So one of the powers you have directly is to remove executives of banks when they misbehave. Is it your intention to pursue this issue in any way to explore whether that type of action is appropriate in this situation? Ms. YELLEN. I will discuss with my colleagues what is appropriate. I do not have a definitive answer for you. Senator MERKLEY. Thank you very much for pursuing that. I will certainly want to follow up with you, because when we are talking over $1 billion of tax evasion and of 22,000 Americans engaged, we cannot even get more than 1 percent of the names of folks, and yet it is up to our regulatory agencies to decide whether and how a bank participates in the U.S. economy. And if we are holding U.S. banks to one standard and letting foreign banks operates by a completely different standard, that is a fundamental unfairness. And it is also an unfairness to ordinary Americans. If ordinary Americans are engaged in tax evasion, they can serve a lot of years in jail. In this case, we are talking massive facilitation of tax evasion by a bank, now well documented by McCain and Levin, and it seems like there should be some accountability. And I know folks in my town halls ask this all the time: Why does there seem to be a different standard? With HSBC, their money laundering was well documented over a 10-year period. They facilitated terrorist networks. They facilitated drug networks. They facilitated the evasion of U.S. sanctions, very important to us, for example, the sanctions to try to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. And yet not one bank official was held accountable. So this is another chapter and a new opportunity to change this story of fundamental just and fairness, and I would just ask that you take a very serious look at it. Ms. YELLEN. I will. Thank you. Senator MERKLEY. Thank you. Chairman JOHNSON. Senator Shelby has a brief point to make. Senator SHELBY. Thank you. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00038 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 35 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Madam Chair, thank you very much for sticking around with us. I would pose this: Is the Fed inconsistent? Let me explain. On one hand, the Federal Reserve holds GSE securities on its balance sheet at face value. And on the other hand, it is asking under Basel’s regulation, it is asking financial institutions—that is, our banks—that hold the same GSE-backed securities that the Fed has basically to take a 15-percent haircut when risk weighting such assets for the purpose of Basel III calculations. That is my understanding of what is going on. How is the market to interpret this discrepancy in the approach by the Fed to its own portfolio as opposed to the portfolio of the banks that it regulates? It looks like on monetary policy you have got one thing, your own stuff, and then the banks, who hold about 40 percent of GSEs, prudential regulations look at it in a different way? Ms. YELLEN. Well, Senator, you mean they have capital requirements—— Senator SHELBY. That is right. That is exactly right. Liquidity. Whether they call it ‘‘new liquidity coverage ratio’’ under the Basel III deal. Ms. YELLEN. Oh, OK. But why would the Fed have a liquidity— I mean, we—— Senator SHELBY. The banks—go ahead. Ms. YELLEN. You mentioned that we carry these on our balance sheet at face value. That is an accounting convention that we use in Fed accounting. We also report when there are price fluctuations for these securities, we report that in our financial accounts, so the market value of these securities is—— Senator SHELBY. I understand that. But at the same time, aren’t you on one hand treating as a regulator your banks, say they have to take a 15-percent haircut on GSE holdings, and the Fed is different. I know you do different things. Ms. YELLEN. I mean, we want to—— Senator SHELBY. The approach should be consistent. Or should it not? Ms. YELLEN. We want to make sure in the liquidity coverage ratio that banks have adequate liquid assets to be able to meet potential withdrawals that they can face over a period of about a month. Senator SHELBY. Sure. Ms. YELLEN. And while mortgage-backed securities are assets that can be sold, they are somewhat less liquid than Treasurys, and the most liquid in cash. And so in computing this, we put in place a 15-percent haircut. But to say that the same requirement should apply to the Fed, I am confused about that because we do not have the possibility of having runs on the Federal Reserve—— Senator SHELBY. Ma’am, I was raising the inconsistency in the approach. Is there an in consistent approach? Or do you say one is good for the banks and the Fed does not need that? Is that what you are saying? Ms. YELLEN. I believe that the Fed does not need that, and we are not in this area of liquidity in the need to maintain liquidity that the Federal Reserve is really quite different than an ordinary VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00039 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 36 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER commercial bank. We are not subject to liquidity runs, and to me it is different. Senator SHELBY. But, the same, you are treating securities differently—I mean you are treating the GSE-backed securities in a different way. You are basically weighting, weighing the haircut of 15 percent discount in a way of the value of those securities. Is that correct? Ms. YELLEN. Well, because we think—— Senator SHELBY. Under Basel III. Ms. YELLEN. We think they are somewhat less liquid than, say, Treasurys, and because they are somewhat less liquid, the markets in which they trade, there needs to be some haircut that they are not quite as good as cash or Treasurys in terms of meeting potential runs on a bank or liquidity drains. And to me that is an appropriate recognition of the difference in liquidity between mortgagebacked securities and Treasurys or cash. Senator SHELBY. Fifteen percent is a pretty good number, though, isn’t it? Ms. YELLEN. It is something. Senator SHELBY. Does it seem like a high number? Is that an arbitrary number that has been brought forth to risk weight something at a discount of 15 percent? Ms. YELLEN. There are judgments that have been made throughout about what the appropriate rates of discount—— Senator SHELBY. Well, a lot of the banks—a lot of the smaller banks are concerned about this because they have bought a lot of GSE securities, and if they are going to be risk weighted adversely in their portfolio, it could cause them a problem, as you well know. Ms. YELLEN. So we put this proposal out for comment, and, you know, we will certainly look at all the comments that—— Senator SHELBY. Well, look at it closely, is all I—— Ms. YELLEN. We will look at all the comments that come in and try to take that into account as we craft a final proposal. Senator SHELBY. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman JOHNSON. Chair Yellen, I want to thank you for your excellent testimony. This hearing is adjourned. [Whereupon, at 12:17 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.] [Prepared statements and responses to written questions supplied for the record follow]: VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00040 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 37 PREPARED STATEMENT OF JANET L. YELLEN CHAIR, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM FEBRUARY 27, 2014 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Chairman Johnson, Senator Crapo and other Members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. In my remarks today, I will discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy. I will conclude with an update on our continuing work on regulatory reform. First, let me acknowledge the important contributions of Chairman Bernanke. His leadership helped make our economy and financial system stronger and ensured that the Federal Reserve is transparent and accountable. I pledge to continue that work. Current Economic Situation and Outlook The economic recovery gained greater traction in the second half of last year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is currently estimated to have risen at an average annual rate of more than 3 1⁄2 percent in the third and fourth quarters, up from a 1 3⁄4 percent pace in the first half. The pickup in economic activity has fueled further progress in the labor market. About 1 1⁄4 million jobs have been added to payrolls since the previous Monetary Policy Report last July, and 3 1⁄4 million have been added since August 2012, the month before the Federal Reserve began a new round of asset purchases to add momentum to the recovery. The unemployment rate has fallen nearly a percentage point since the middle of last year and 1 1⁄2 percentage points since the beginning of the current asset purchase program. Nevertheless, the recovery in the labor market is far from complete. The unemployment rate is still well above levels that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants estimate is consistent with maximum sustainable employment. Those out of a job for more than 6 months continue to make up an unusually large fraction of the unemployed, and the number of people who are working part time but would prefer a full-time job remains very high. These observations underscore the importance of considering more than the unemployment rate when evaluating the condition of the U.S. labor market. Among the major components of GDP, household and business spending growth stepped up during the second half of last year. Early in 2013, growth in consumer spending was restrained by changes in fiscal policy. As this restraint abated during the second half of the year, household spending accelerated, supported by job gains and by rising home values and equity prices. Similarly, growth in business investment started off slowly last year but then picked up during the second half, reflecting improving sales prospects, greater confidence, and still-favorable financing conditions. In contrast, the recovery in the housing sector slowed in the wake of last year’s increase in mortgage rates. Inflation remained low as the economy picked up strength, with both the headline and core personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price indexes rising only about 1 percent last year, well below the FOMC’s 2 percent objective for inflation over the longer run. Some of the recent softness reflects factors that seem likely to prove transitory, including falling prices for crude oil and declines in non-oil import prices. My colleagues on the FOMC and I anticipate that economic activity and employment will expand at a moderate pace this year and next, the unemployment rate will continue to decline toward its longer-run sustainable level, and inflation will move back toward 2 percent over coming years. We have been watching closely the recent volatility in global financial markets. Our sense is that at this stage these developments do not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economic outlook. We will, of course, continue to monitor the situation. Monetary Policy Turning to monetary policy, let me emphasize that I expect a great deal of continuity in the FOMC’s approach to monetary policy. I served on the Committee as we formulated our current policy strategy and I strongly support that strategy, which is designed to fulfill the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Prior to the financial crisis, the FOMC carried out monetary policy by adjusting its target for the Federal funds rate. With that rate near zero since late 2008, we have relied on two less-traditional tools—asset purchases and forward guidance— to help the economy move toward maximum employment and price stability. Both tools put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and support asset prices. In turn, these more accommodative financial conditions support consumer spending, business investment, and housing construction, adding impetus to the recovery. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00041 Fmt 6621 Sfmt 6621 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 38 Our current program of asset purchases began in September 2012 amid signs that the recovery was weakening and progress in the labor market had slowed. The Committee said that it would continue the program until there was a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability. In mid2013, the Committee indicated that if progress toward its objectives continued as expected, a moderation in the monthly pace of purchases would likely become appropriate later in the year. In December, the Committee judged that the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions warranted a modest reduction in the pace of purchases, from $45 billion to $40 billion per month of longer-term Treasury securities and from $40 billion to $35 billion per month of agency mortgage-backed securities. At its January meeting, the Committee decided to make additional reductions of the same magnitude. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. That said, purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on its outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. The Committee has emphasized that a highly accommodative policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after asset purchases end. In addition, the Committee has said since December 2012 that it expects the current low target range for the Federal funds rate to be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6 1⁄2 percent, inflation is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above our 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Crossing one of these thresholds will not automatically prompt an increase in the Federal funds rate, but will instead indicate only that it had become appropriate for the Committee to consider whether the broader economic outlook would justify such an increase. In December of last year and again this January, the Committee said that its current expectation—based on its assessment of a broad range of measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments—is that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the Federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6 1⁄2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the 2 percent goal. I am committed to achieving both parts of our dual mandate: helping the economy return to full employment and returning inflation to 2 percent while ensuring that it does not run persistently above or below that level. Strengthening the Financial System I will finish with an update on progress on regulatory reforms and supervisory actions to strengthen the financial system. In October, the Federal Reserve Board proposed a rule to strengthen the liquidity positions of large and internationally active financial institutions.1 Together with other Federal agencies, the Board also issued a final rule implementing the Volcker rule, which prohibits banking firms from engaging in short-term proprietary trading of certain financial instruments.2 On the supervisory front, the next round of annual capital stress tests of the largest 30 bank holding companies is under way, and we expect to report results in March. Regulatory and supervisory actions, including those that are leading to substantial increases in capital and liquidity in the banking sector, are making our financial system more resilient. Still, important tasks lie ahead. In the near term, we expect to finalize the rules implementing enhanced prudential standards mandated by section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. We also are working to finalize the proposed rule strengthening the leverage ratio standards for U.S.-based, systemically important global banks. We expect to issue proposals for a risk-based capital surcharge for those banks as well as for a longterm debt requirement to help ensure that these organizations can be resolved. In addition, we are working to advance proposals on margins for noncleared derivatives, consistent with a new global framework, and are evaluating possible measures to address financial stability risks associated with short-term wholesale funding. We BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER 1 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2013), ‘‘Federal Reserve Board Proposes Rule to Strengthen Liquidity Positions of Large Financial Institutions,’’ press release, October 24, www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20131024a.htm. 2 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and Securities and Exchange Commission (2013), ‘‘Agencies Issue Final Rules Implementing the Volcker Rule,’’ joint press release, December 10, www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/ bcreg/20131210a.htm. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00042 Fmt 6621 Sfmt 6621 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 39 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER will continue to monitor for emerging risks, including watching carefully to see if the regulatory reforms work as intended. Since the financial crisis and the depths of the recession, substantial progress has been made in restoring the economy to health and in strengthening the financial system. Still, there is more to do. Too many Americans remain unemployed, inflation remains below our longer-run objective, and the work of making the financial system more robust has not yet been completed. I look forward to working with my colleagues and many others to carry out the important mission you have given the Federal Reserve. Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00043 Fmt 6621 Sfmt 6621 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00044 Fmt 6621 Sfmt 6621 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTION OF SENATOR HAGAN FROM JANET L. YELLEN Q.1. One concern I’ve heard is the uncertainty surrounding potential designation as a systemically important financial institutions— in particular, how the Federal Reserve will regulate nonbank firms that are designated. Will the Federal Reserve establish a framework for measuring the impact of designation on individual companies, their customers and the financial markets before moving forward with further designation for nonbank financial firms? Will there be opportunities for firms to adjust their business model so they can remedy systemic concerns? A.1. Section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act or the Act) directs the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board) to establish prudential standards for bank holding companies with total consolidated assets of $50 billion or more and for nonbank financial companies that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (Council) has determined will be supervised by the Board (nonbank financial companies supervised by the Board) in order to prevent or mitigate risks to U.S. financial stability that could arise from the material financial distress or failure, or ongoing activities of, large, interconnected financial institutions. The Council considers the potential impact of its actions on financial markets, firms, and financial stability. For example, in considering whether to subject a nonbank financial company to Federal Reserve supervision under section 113 of the Dodd-Frank Act, the Council is required to consider 10 factors specifically determined by Congress and set forth in the statute related to the company’s vulnerability to financial distress and its potential to transmit financial distress to other firms and markets. In this process, the Council engages in company-specific evaluations and discussions with the firm. The Council also annually reviews whether designated nonbank financial companies should continue to be subject to enhanced prudential standards. As part of that annual review, the Council considers any changes in the business activities of designated firms that would reduce the potential impact of material financial distress or failure of the firm on U.S. financial stability. The Board recognizes that the companies designated by the Council may have a range of businesses, structures, and activities, and that the types of risks to financial stability posed by nonbank financial companies will likely vary. Following designation of a nonbank financial company for supervision by the Board, the Board intends to assess the business model, capital structure, and risk profile of the designated company to determine how the proposed enhanced prudential standards should apply, and if appropriate, BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER (41) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00045 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 42 would tailor application of the standards by order or regulation to that nonbank financial company or to a category of nonbank financial companies. In applying the standards to a nonbank financial company, the Board will take into account differences among nonbank financial companies supervised by the Board and bank holding companies with total consolidated assets of $50 billion or more. For those nonbank financial companies that are similar in activities and risk profile to bank holding companies, the Board expects to apply enhanced prudential standards that are similar to those that apply to bank holding companies. For those that differ from bank holding companies in their activities, balance sheet structure, risk profile, and functional regulation, the Board expects to apply more tailored standards. The Board’s ability to tailor capital requirements for companies designated by the Council is, however, limited substantially by section 171 of the Dodd-Frank Act, which requires the Board to subject such companies to capital requirements that are at least as stringent as those applicable to banks. The Board will ensure that nonbank financial companies receive notice and opportunity to comment prior to determination of their enhanced prudential standards. RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTIONS OF SENATOR VITTER FROM JANET L. YELLEN BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Q.1. Chairwoman Yellen, since the financial crisis, the implantation of Dodd-Frank, and industry consolidation, community banks are still facing many challenges that impend the continued success of this relationship-based lending model. Because independent research is so crucial in helping lawmakers and regulators understand and effectively shape laws and regulation affecting community banks, the fact that the Federal Reserve and Conference of State Bank Supervisors hosted a national community banking research and policy conference last year is laudable. I am glad that a similar event is planned for this year, and hope that, under your leadership the Federal Reserve will continue this partnership. Do you support this effort encouraging community banking research, and do you believe that continued research in this area is beneficial and can better inform public policy? A.1. I strongly support continued research to assist policymakers in understanding how successful community banks can contribute to the health of the U.S. economy. Better research on community banking issues should allow policymakers to make more effective supervisory and regulatory decisions that are appropriate to the unique characteristics of community banks. The inaugural research conference on Community Banking in the 21st Century that the Federal Reserve and Conference of State Bank Supervisors sponsored at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in October 2013 provided a unique opportunity for community bankers, academics, policymakers, and bank supervisors to discuss research findings and practical experience. I am pleased that planning is well under way for a similar conference in 2014, and my hope is that events such as these will serve as a catalyst for additional high-quality research that can inform effective policymaking with regard to community banks. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00046 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 43 Q.2. What other ways can the Federal Reserve support and encourage independent research on the role community banks play in our economy? A.2. Our newly instituted annual community banking research conference, which we co-sponsor with the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, is the primary way that the Federal Reserve can encourage independent research on the role community banks play in our economy. These conferences provide a unique opportunity for academics who are interested in community banking to present their research to a diverse audience, including not only other researchers, but also community bankers and bank regulators. The conferences facilitate conversations among these three groups that might not otherwise take place. These conversations can lead to future collaborations that benefit all parties involved. In addition, the annual conferences provide a known venue for presenting community banking research, and send a strong signal to academics that such research is highly valued by bankers and bank regulators. Beyond the conferences, the Federal Reserve can encourage research on community banking topics by providing opportunities for community banking researchers to present their work in seminars held at the Board of Governors or at Reserve Banks and to interact with Federal Reserve System staff. RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTIONS OF SENATOR TOOMEY FROM JANET L. YELLEN BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Q.1. There have been a lot of unintended consequences coming out of the Volcker Rule. I am concerned about one that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention but could force institutions to take losses, have a harmful effect on the economy, and drive more assets to the shadow banking system. Congress included a special extended transition period in the Volcker Rule that was intended to allow preexisting ‘‘illiquid’’ private equity investments to run off naturally, without the need for forced fire-sales. I am concerned that the Federal Reserve may have defined an illiquid fund in such a way as to make it virtually impossible for organizations to take advantage of this transition period. I understand the Federal Reserve did not ‘‘re-finalize’’ its conformance period rule (which includes the illiquid fund definition) when the rest of the Volcker regulations were finalized. What is the Federal Reserve doing to take comments on this issue into account and to prevent institutions from being forced to sell these investments at a loss? Are you worried about these assets moving into the unregulated shadow banking system? A.1. Congress determined that section 13 of the Bank Holding Company Act (‘‘BHC Act’’) was necessary to promote and enhance the safety and soundness of banking entities and the financial stability of the United States by prohibiting banking entities from engaging in short-term proprietary trading of financial instruments and making certain types of investments in private equity funds and hedge funds, subject to certain exemptions. By statute, the requirements of section 13 are subject to a conformance period that ended on July 21, 2014, absent action to extend the period by the Federal Reserve. The conformance period for VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00047 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 44 section 13 may be extended for up to three additional 1-year periods if, in the judgment of the Federal Reserve, an extension is consistent with the purposes of section 13 and would not be detrimental to the public interest. Additionally, the Federal Reserve may, upon application of a banking entity, extend for up to an additional 5 years the period during which a banking entity, to the extent necessary to fulfill a contractual obligation that was in effect on May 1, 2010, may take or retain its ownership interest in, or otherwise provide additional capital to, an illiquid fund. On February 9, 2011, the Federal Reserve issued its final conformance rule as required under section 13(c)(6) of the BHC Act,1 and stated that the Federal Reserve expected to review the final conformance rule after completion of the final rule implementing section 13 of the BHC Act, to determine whether modifications or adjustments to the rule are appropriate in light of the final rules adopted under that section. In October 2011, as part of proposing implementing rules for 13, the Federal Reserve requested comment on whether any of the conformance provisions in that rule should be revised. Consistent with the statute and in order to give markets and firms an opportunity to adjust to the prohibitions and requirements of any implementing rules, the Federal Reserve in December 2013, exercised its statutory authority to extend the general conformance period under section 13 of the BHC Act until July 21, 2015, on the same date that the final implementing rules for section 13 were issued.2 Staff of the Federal Reserve has met with representatives of interested parties and is currently reviewing comments submitted on the conformance rule and definition of illiquid fund. These commenters have requested that the Federal Reserve broaden the definition of illiquid assets in the conformance rule and the meaning of what is ‘‘necessary to fulfill a contractual obligation’’ of the banking entity. The Federal Reserve is considering these comments in light of the final rule implementing section 13 to determine whether to revisit the conformance rule. To the extent that the Federal Reserve’s conformance rule has unintended impacts, the Federal Reserve would evaluate and address those impacts within the parameters of the statute if possible, and otherwise to inform Congress. Q.2.a. You may already be in receipt of a bi-partisan letter to which I am a signatory that raises concerns about new global capital standards being contemplated by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) for ‘‘internationally active insurance groups.’’ In the United States, unlike in Europe, policy holders are protected by State guaranty funds. Furthermore, U.S. insurance companies already comply with the capital standards requirements in BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER 1 See Conformance Period for Entities Engaged in Prohibited Proprietary Trading or Private Equity Fund or Hedge Fund Activities, 76 FR 8265 (Feb. 14, 2011). 2 See Board Order Approving Extension of the Conformance Period (Dec. 10, 2013). On April 7, 2014, the Federal Reserve issued a statement that it intends to grant two additional 1-year extensions of the conformance period under section 13 of the BHC Act that would allow banking entities additional time to conform to the statute ownership interests in and sponsorship of collateralized loan obligations (‘‘CLOs’’) in place as of December 31, 2013, that do not qualify for the exclusion in the final rule implementing section 13 of the BHC Act for loan securitizations. This would permit banking entities to retain ownership interests in and sponsorship of CLOs held as of that date until July 21, 2017. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00048 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 45 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER European countries. The FSB’s effort may be a solution in search of a problem. A.2.a. In its July 2013 press release announcing the policy measures that would apply to the designated global systemically important insurers (GSIIs), the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) stated that it considered a sound capital and supervisory framework for the global insurance sector more broadly to be essential for supporting financial stability, and that it planned to develop a comprehensive, group-wide supervisory and regulatory framework for internationally active insurance groups (IAIGs), including an international capital standard (ICS). The business of insurance has become increasingly global in the past few decades. The decision of the IAIS to develop an ICS for IAIGs reflects that trend, and has a parallel in the development of capital standards for internationally active banks by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). The BCBS has been promulgating capital requirements for internationally active banks since the 1980s. The U.S. Federal banking agencies, which are members of the BCBS, have long contributed to and supported the work to develop common baseline prudential standards for global banks. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) endorsed the proposed measures announced by the IAIS. That endorsement was consistent with the mission of the FSB to coordinate at the international level the work of national financial authorities and international standard setting bodies, including the IAIS, and to develop and promote the implementation of effective regulatory, supervisory and other financial sector policies in the interest of financial stability. State insurance supervisors, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, the Federal Insurance Office, and more recently, the Federal Reserve, are members of the IAIS. Q.2.b. I am not aware of any legal authority for the FSB to pursue the creation and adoption of capital standards for ‘‘internationally active insurance groups’’ in the United States. Will you commit to resisting efforts by others on the FSB to establish and impose new global capital standards that are at odds with the current regulatory and structural framework of U.S. insurers or would put U.S. insurers at a competitive disadvantage? A.2.b. The Federal Reserve is fully committed to transparency and due process in the development and promulgation of regulatory standards. We support the practice of the IAIS to release for public comment its proposals for the basic capital requirements for globally systemically important insurers and expect that the IAIS will follow a similar process in the development of the ICS. It is important to note that neither the FSB nor the IAIS has the ability to implement requirements in any jurisdiction. Implementation in the United States would have to be consistent with U.S. law and comply with the administrative rulemaking process, including an opportunity for public comment. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00049 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 46 RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTIONS OF SENATOR COBURN FROM JANET L. YELLEN BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER Q.1.a. During your testimony, you indicated the FOMC will try to get a ‘‘firmer handle’’ on what is causing the recent soft economic reports and that the FOMC is open to reconsidering adjusting the pace of asset purchases accordingly. In your estimate, how much lag time exists between Fed monetary policy adjustments and their impact on the real economy? A.1.a. Estimates from standard econometric models of the U.S. economy suggest that monetary policy adjustments begin to affect growth of output and employment after a lag of about one quarter, and that the effects build for a few quarters thereafter. Standard estimates are that inflation responds with a longer lag. These estimates are derived from studies of the economy’s responses to adjustments in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (‘‘Committee’’) target for the Federal funds rate in normal times. We have less evidence with which to estimate the lags in the effects of changes in asset purchases on the economy, but the lags seem unlikely to be shorter. Q.1.b. Do you believe that the Fed’s December announcement to begin the slow taper of asset purchases could have impacted employment data in January? A.1.b. No. The reported sluggishness in job growth early this year appears to reflect unusually severe weather, at least in part. After assessing a wide range of indicators of economic activity and labor market conditions, the Committee judged that there is sufficient underlying strength in the U.S. economy to support a pickup in job growth and ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. Moreover, even with the reduction in the pace of its asset purchases, the Federal Reserve continues to add to its securities holdings, thereby putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and providing stimulus to the economy. Q.1.c. If the FOMC decided to discontinue or even reverse the taper based on weak economic data, how long would you expect it to take for the decision to impact employment and economic growth? A.1.c. I would expect such a decision to affect interest rates quickly; indeed interest rates likely would begin to decline in response to surprisingly weak economic data before the Committee even released its decision. Employment and output growth, in turn, likely would begin to respond to lower interest rates in a quarter or two. Q.2. In your testimony, you mention that the reduction of largescale asset purchases would depend on inflation and employment data along with the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. Can you explain what the Board’s current view is on the efficacy and costs of additional LSAPs? A.2. Based on research conducted by economists at the Federal Reserve and by many outside experts, our judgment is that LSAPs have put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and helped to make financial conditions more accommodative. These changes in financial conditions, in turn, have had a meaningful effect in supporting the economic recovery and have helped keep in- VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00050 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 47 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER flation nearer the Committee’s 2 percent goal. As we have noted many times, LSAPs and monetary policy generally are not a panacea for all of the Nation’s economic difficulties. But our judgment is that our policy actions have helped to foster progress toward our statutory mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The Committee has discussed the potential costs of LSAPs at length. Among the possible costs of LSAPs, policymakers have pointed to potential risks to financial stability; possible complications for the Federal Reserve’s strategy for removing policy accommodation at the appropriate time, which could contribute to inflation pressures; and the possible implications of LSAPs for Federal Reserve net income in some scenarios. To date, all of these risks appear manageable. We are monitoring financial markets very carefully, but there is little evidence at this point of excessive risktaking or broad-based reliance on leverage. We are confident that we have the tools necessary to remove policy accommodation at the appropriate time and inflation has been running below the Committee’s 2 percent goal for some time and is expected to move up only gradually over time. Finally, we have examined the likely path of Federal Reserve net income in many alternative scenarios. In all but the most extreme cases, Federal Reserve income is expected to remain positive in coming years. Moreover, cumulative Federal Reserve net income over the entire period from 2008–2025 is virtually certain to be very large, and much larger than would have been the case in the absence of asset purchases. That said, the Federal Reserve takes all these possible risks of LSAPs very seriously and, as our statements suggest, an increase in our assessment of the likely costs of asset purchases would certainly be taken into account in judging the appropriate pace of such purchases. Q.3.a. You have indicated your commitment to using forward guidance to inform market observers about Fed intentions in order to maintain a stimulative monetary footing. You and your predecessor have also repeatedly stated that any adjustments to the pace of asset purchases would be wholly dependent on the data. Do you believe there is a contradiction between the Fed adamantly stating that any changes in quantitative easing will be data dependent while simultaneously stating that in the future the Fed will keep rates lower for longer than economic conditions would otherwise necessitate? A.3.a. Both the Committee’s forward guidance and its asset purchases have been designed to provide stimulus while being data dependent. The Committee has provided three types of forward guidance: qualitative guidance (extended period), date-based guidance, and guidance using economic thresholds. All have been designed to provide stimulus by conveying the Committee’s expectation that the Federal funds rate target would be lower for longer than may otherwise have been expected without the guidance. However, the guidance has consistently been expressed as the Committee’s current assessment of the policy it expects to be appropriate in the future given future economic conditions. Indeed the threshold-based guidance was explicitly data-dependent. Thus, the Committee always reserved the option to raise interest rates sooner or keep them unchanged for longer than indicated in the guidance. Asset VerDate 0ct 09 2002 14:43 Dec 19, 2014 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00051 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\DOCS\88746.TXT SHERYL 48 BANKI-41578DSA with DISTILLER purchases have been designed to provide economic stimulus by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, and have also been explicitly data dependent, especially the current flowbased asset purchase program, which the Committee has indicated will continue until there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the market, conditional on an ongoing review of their efficacy and costs. Q.3.b. Does the Fed run the risk of losing credibility if you do not stick to your forward guidance in the coming years? Or, does the Fed run the danger of exercising monetary policy that is no longer appropriate for the economic conditions in the future in order to maintain the commitments a previous Board has already made? A.3.b. The Committee’s forward guidance is intended to provide the public with a better understanding of how it will conduct monetary policy in the future, but the guidance has consistently been expressed in terms of what policy would be appropriate in the future given the Committee’s current outlook for future economic conditions. Indeed, the threshold-based forward guidance was explicitly data-contingent. If the Committee were to conduct policy in the future in a manner that was inconsistent with its past statements, that could harm its credibility. But those past statements do not constrain the Committee to conduct policy in the future in a fixed manner, regardless of the future prevailing economic conditions. 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@FedFRASER