The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE F E D E R A L ADVISORY COUNCIL S e p t e m b e r 16 , 19 63 T he th ird s tatu tory m e e tin g of the Federal A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l fo r 1 9 6 3 w a s c o n v e n e d in R o o m 9 3 2 o f t h e M a y f l o w e r H o t e l , W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . o n S e p t e m b e r 1 6 , 1 9 6 3 , a t 9 : 3 0 a . m . P re sen t: L a w r e n c e H . M a rtin D is tric t No. G eorge A . M urphy D is tric t N o. How ard C . P e t e r s e n 1 2 D is tr ic t N o. L . A . S tone r D is tric t No. Robert B . H o b b s D is tr ic t N o. 5 J . F in le y M c R a e D is tric t No. 6 K enneth V . Z w ie n e r D is tric t N o. S id n e y M a e s tre D is tric t N o. John A . M oorhead 7 8 D is tric t N o. M a u r ic e L . B r e i d e n t h a l 3 4 9 D i s t r i c t N o . 10 J a m e s W. A s t o n D i s t r i c t N o . 11 E llio tt M c A llis te r D i s t r i c t N o . 12 Herbert V . P r o c h n o w Secretary W illia m J . K o r s v ik A s s i s t a n t Secretary On m o tio n d u ly m a d e and seconded, th e m i m e o g r a p h e d n o t e s o f th e m e e t in g h e ld on May 2 0 - 2 1 , 1 9 6 3 , c o p i e s o f w h i c h h a d b e e n s e n t p r e v i o u s l y t o t h e m e m b e r s o f t h e C o u n c i l , w e re a p p r o v e d . A c o m p l e t e l i s t o f t h e i t e m s o n t h e a g e n d a for th e m e e t i n g a n d th e c o n c l u s i o n s o f the C o u n c il are to be fo und in th e C o n f i d e n t i a l M e m o r a n d u m t o t h e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s f r om t he F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l , w h i c h f o l l o w s o n p a g e s 2 4 , 25 a n d 26 o f th e s e m in u t e s . T he m e e tin g a d jo u r n e d at 1 2 :2 5 P .M . HERBERT V. PRO CH N O W Secretary W IL L IA M J. K O R S V IK A s s is t a n t Secretary 21 MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF T H E F E D E R A L ADVISORY C O U N C I L S e p te m b e r 16, 1963 At 2:30 p.m ., th e Federal A d v is o ry C o u n c il convened in th e B oard Room of th e Federal Reserve B u ild in g , W a s h in g to n , D . C . P re sen t: P etersen, L . M aestre, Mr. G e o r g e A . M u r p h y , P r e s i d e n t ; A . S to n e r, R o b e r t B . John A. M oorhead, Hobbs, J. M a u ric e L. M essrs. F in le y Law rence M cRae, B r e id e n th a l, H. K enneth Jam es M a rtin , V. W. H ow ard C . Z w ie n e r , A sto n , and S id n e y E llio tt M c A llis te r. Dr. R a lp h A . Y o u n g , D ir e c to r , an d m e m b e rs o f th e s t a f f o f th e D i v i s i o n F in a n c e , d is c u s s e d The B ro o k in g s R epo rt. A resum e o f th e d is c u s s io n of In te rn a tio n a l was sent to th e m e m b e rs o f th e C o u n c i l . H ERB ER T V. P R O C H N O W Secretary W IL L IA M J. K O R S V IK A s s is t a n t S ecretary 22 MINUTES O F T H E M E E T I N G O F T H E F E D E R A L ADVISORY C O U N C I L S e p te m b e r 16, 1963 At 8:3 0 P .M ., the F e d e r a l A d v is o r y C o u n c i l r e c o n v e n e d in R o o m 9 3 2 o f th e M a y flo w e r H o te l, W a s h in g t o n , D . C . P re sen t: M r. G e o r g e Petersen, L . A. M aestre, J o h n S tone r, A. A. M urphy, Robert M oorhead, B. P re s id e n t; Hobbs, M a u r ic e L. J. B r e id e n th a l, H erbert V . P r o c h n o w , S e c r e t a r y , a n d W i l l i a m The C o u n c il re v ie w e d the o ffic e of th e its Secretary c o n c lu s io n s of the M essrs. F in le y B oard Law rence M cRae, Jam es H. M a rtin , K enneth V. W. A s t o n , lis tin g th e agenda ite m s w ith the C. E llio tt M c A llis te r, J . K o r s v ik , A s s is ta n t S ecretary. r e g a r d in g th e it e m s of G overnors the on th e a g e n d a a n d c o n c lu s io n s s e n t to C o n fid ential Memorandum Board of G overnors from the F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l , w h ic h fo llo w s on p a g e s 26, H ow ard Z w ie n e r , S id n e y reached by the 24, to the 25, C o u n c il. and The Memorandum w a s d e liv e r e d to th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B u i l d i n g at 1 0 :3 0 P .M . on S e p te m b e r 16, 1963. The m e e tin g a d jo u r n e d at 9 :1 5 P .M . H ERBERT V. PROCHNOW Secretary W IL L IA M J . K O R S V IK A s s is ta n t Secretary 23 CO NFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM TO THE BOARD FROM FED ERA L R E L A T IV E W hat are th e o f e c o n o m ic TO THE A G EN D A v ie w s o f the a c tiv ity e a rly part of 1964? in GOVERNORS THE A D V IS O R Y C O U N C IL FOR ON S E P T E M B E R 1. OF m em bers the U n ite d T H E JO IN T of th e C o u n c il S ta te s d u rin g In d i s c u s s i n g M E E T IN G 17, 1963 th is as to the p ro b a b le course th e r e m a in d e r o f 1963 a n d the g e n e r a l q u e s t io n , th e C o u n c il m ay w is h to c o m m e n t o n th e f o l l o w i n g it e m s : (a) D o re c e n t le v e ls o f r e s id e n t ia l b u il d in g a c t i v it y a p p e a r to be firm ly b a s e d , a n d is fu rth er e x p a n s io n a n t i c i p a t e d ? (b) Does th e liq u id a tio n p e a r to h a v e (c) Has any of a b o u t run ste e l its im p o rta n t c h a n g e in v e n to rie s course, been or is a c q u ire d furth er observed e a rlie r th is liq u id a tio n re c e n tly in year ap in prospect? prosp ects for p l a n t and e q u ip m e n t e x p e n d itu r e s ? (d) Does th e C o u n c il c o n tin u e of the o p in io n m e e tin g w ith the B o a r d , th a t c o m p e titiv e d o m e s tic The d u rin g m o d e ra te ly . m em bers th e The at c a p a c i t y , a s w e l l a s from m a n u f a c t u r e r s a b r o a d , s u ffic ie n t S tate s expressed to of d is c o u ra g e th e broad C o u n c il re m ain d e r o f 1963 a n tic ip a te and p e r s is t e n t d e f ic it in p ric e the e a rly our b a la n c e r is e s th at its p re v io u s p r e s s u r e s r e s u l t i n g from u n u s e d in th e e c o n o m ic part of a c tiv ity 1964 w ill of paym ents, w i l l te n d to be re la tiv e ly n e a r futu re? in c o n tin u e th e re a c tio n the U nite d to in c re a s e w h ic h m ig h t o c cu r if a tax c u t d id n o t m a t e r ia liz e a n d th e fa c t th a t th e c u rre n t p e rio d of e x p a n s io n a lre a d y run over 2- 1 /2 years (a) are som e u n c e rta in tie s W h ile c e r ta in ty p e s in the current e c o n o m ic o f r e s id e n tia l c o n s tru c tio n in has s itu a tio n . p a rtic u la r a re as co u n try h a v e b ee n o v e r b u ilt, m o s t m e m b e rs o f the C o u n c il b e lie v e th a t the re c e n t b u ild in g of s in g le fa m ily ho m e s h a s b ee n r e la tiv e ly One been in th e som e abundance s p e c u la tiv e the c o u n try la tio n of th e there is groups. In facts in v o lv e d o f lo ng - term b u ild in g a dem and g e n e ra l, in fun d s firm ly the e x p a n s io n in v e s tm e n t. u n its . On th e for a p a r t m e n t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y re s id e n tia l c o n s tru c tio n m o v e m e n t w ith no p ro no u n c e d u p w ard tre nd . stro n g s e e k in g of m u lti- fa m ily based. 24 w ill in T h is apa rtm e n t has p r o b a b ly h a s r e s u lte d o th e r h a n d , in m any by the y o u n g e r and p ro b a b ly b u ild in g e x p e r ie n c e areas of o ld e r p o p u a s id e w a y s o f th e (b) The m em bers o f th e C o u n c il are of the o p in io n th a t th e liq u id a tio n of s t e e l i n v e n t o r i e s a c q u i r e d e a r l i e r t h i s y e a r h a s a b o u t r un i t s c o u r s e . (c) w ith the T he e x p e c ta tio n s B oard in M ay. T h is of b u s in e s s m e n change in have s e n tim e n t im p r o v e d in c re a s e s s in c e the the l a s t m e e tin g prospects fo r a n e x p a n s io n in p l a n t a n d e q u i p m e n t e x p e n d i t u r e s in the m o n th s a h e a d . (d) The in th e r e l a t i v e l y duces w h ic h som ew hat have C o u n c il near future. the c o n tin u e s to How ever, th e c o m p e titiv e d is c o u ra g e d p ric e b e lie v e pressures advances th at broad p ric e s u b s t a n t i a l r is e in in re s u ltin g the fr o m p ast. unused Recent ris e s p ro d u c tio n are u n lik e ly sin c e d o m e stic in c re a s e s in M ay re c a p a c ity p ro d u c tiv ity t e n d to c o n t r i b u t e t o p r i c e s t a b i l i t y . 2. Does the C o u n c il d e t e c t a n y s u b s t a n t i a l s l a c k e n i n g i n b a n k e f f o r t s to a t t r a c t ti m e a n d s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s ? A n y c h a n g e i n t h e p a t t e r n o f b a n k i n v e s t m e n t o f t h e s e s a v i n g s in flo w s ? The m em bers o f the C o u n c il b e lie v e th at banks are m a k in g a s o m ew h at le ss in t e n s iv e effort to a t t r a c t tim e a n d s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s . H o w e v e r , t h is h a s n o t b ee n refle c te d in an e a s i n g o f r a t e s p a i d f o r s u c h f u n d s . T he c h a n g e s in R e g u l a t io n Q w e re in t e r p r e t e d by m a n y c o m m e r c ia l b a nk ers as an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t t h e m o n e t a r y a u t h o r i t i e s w o u l d th e money m ark e ts. w o uld th ere fo re be Those le ss t h e i r n e e d fo r l i q u i d i t y fun d s s e n s itiv e a p t to m o v e had been o u t o f th e le s s e n e d p o lic ie s by a d d i n g s u b s t a n t i a l l y p e r m i t t h e m t o p a y c o m p e t i t i v e r a t e s in to changes b a n k in g in som ew hat, and to t h e ir h o l d i n g s y ie ld s system . in th e money m arket M a n y b a n k e r s fe lt that they c h a n g e d th eir in v e s tm e n t of m u n ic ip a l s e c u ritie s and m ortgages. A lth o u g h th e m e m b e r s o f th e C o u n c i l b e l i e v e t h a t t i m e a n d s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s in the future w i l l a c c o u n t fo r a n i n c r e a s i n g p e r c e n t a g e be a s sharp as in the past tw o years. of to tal d e p o s its , As a the rate of in c r e a s e w ill not consequence, changes in b a n k in v e s t m e n t p o rtfo lio s w i l l te n d to be l e s s m a r k e d . 3. As th e th is a re s u lt flo w of h ig h le v e ls of in te r n a lly year, d e c lin e d . w h ile Do dependence th e m em bers f i n a n c i n g to c o n t i n u e and la rg e , are on of and of chan g es b u s in e s s funds bank m arket the and C o u n c il has in b u s in e ss in c r e a s e d fina n c ing tax la w s , s u b s ta n tia lly appears e x p e c t b u s in e s s needs to h a v e fo r bank m o d e r a t e o v e r th e b a l a n c e o f th e y e a r or are th ere s ig n s of s ig n ific a n t in c r e a s e by of a c tiv ity generated in b u s i n e s s s u ffic ie n tly lo a n s ? liq u id to D o e s th e C o u n c i l fe e l t h a t b a n k s , meet a m o d erate upsurge in c re d it d e m a n d s w ith o u t s u b s t a n t ia l p o r tfo lio rearrange m ent? The in c re a s e system m em bers s e a s o n a lly has d e c lin e d , over th e of the th e C o u n c il b a la n c e C o u n c il of expect the b e lie v e s b u s in e s s year. that W h ile needs the th e c o m m e r c i a l fo r bank liq u id ity banks fin a n c in g to of the b a n k in g are in a p o s itio n to m e e t a m o d e r a t e u p s u r g e i n c r e d i t d e m a n d s w i t h o u t s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t f o l i o r e a r r a n g e m e n t . 25 4. W hat are th e C o u n c i l ' s o b s e r v a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g c u r r e n t a t t i t u d e s in th e b u s i n e s s and f in a n c ia l c o m m u n ity tow ard does th e C o u n c il a p p ra ise U . S. b a la n c e o f p a y m e n ts d e v e lo p m e n t s ? the general re c e p tio n of th e recent How a c tio n s and p r o p o s a l s d e s i g n e d to d e a l w i t h t h i s p r o b l e m ? A lth ou gh the p e rsis te n t g o ld are s o m e w h a t r e m o te the C o u n c i l b e l i e v e s d e fic it in from th e e v e r y d a y our in te r n a tio n a l a ffa ir s and th a t there is h e ig h t e n e d c o n c e r n pay m ents a c tiv itie s in and of m ost th e b u s in e s s and th e lo s s of b u s in e s s m e n , fin a n c ia l com m u n ity r e g a r d in g U . S. b a la n c e o f p a y m e n t s d e v e l o p m e n t s . T he a c t io n s o f the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m d e s i g n e d to d e a l w ith have been fa v o ra b ly re c e iv e d , som e d o u b t, h o w e ve r, e s p e c ia lly a b o u t th e the m e rit o f th e a lth o u g h m a n y p e r s o n s w ere e n c o u r a g e d in c r e a s e in e q u a liz a tio n the tax d is c o u n t proposed by th e fa c t th a t s p e c if i c a c tio n th is p ro ble m rate. by There the was is T reasury, b e in g taken in a n e ffo r t to c o p e w i t h o u r p a y m e n t s d i f f i c u l t i e s . As m ents th e C o u n c i l h a s p ro ble m in v o lv e s fisc a l observed p o lic y , in th e p a st, overseas the s o lu tio n defe nse o u tla y s w h ic h do not f a ll w ith in the r e s p o n s ib il it y N e v e rth e le s s , the C o u n c i l and b e lie v e s som e of pay fo re ig n of the m o n e ta ry a u th o r it ie s . p o lic y a lo n e c a n th ere fore n o t be e x p e c t e d to m e e t th e p r o b le m n a tio n a l paym ents. to o u r b a l a n c e e x p e n d itu r e s a id M onetary o f th e d e f i c i t in o ur in t e r furth er t ig h te n in g of m one ta ry p o l i c y m i g h t be d e s i r a b l e . 5. How does the C o u n c il e v a lu a te th e im p a c t of current m o n e tary and c re d it p o lic y ? A s s u g g e s te d in Ite m IV , th e C o u n c i l b e l i e v e s th a t c u r r e n t m o n e ta r y a n d c r e d it p o lic y h a s had a fa v o r a b le im p a c t on th e f i n a n c i a l a n d b u s i n e s s c o m m u n it y . The B oard w o u ld e x p re s s on th e l e g i s l a t i o n w h ic h c re d it can be a lso lik e to have any v ie w s th at the C o u n c il may care to th a t h a s b e e n r e c o m m e n d e d to b r o a d e n th e k i n d s o f s e c u r i t y on advanced by th e Federal Reserve banks. T hese re c o m m e n d a tio n s w ere in c l u d e d in th e B o a r d ’ s le t t e r o f A u g u s t 21 to th e C h a i r m e n o f th e S e n a t e a n d H o u s e B a n k in g and C u rre n c y C o m m itte e s . The m em bers o f th e C o u n c il b e lie v e th at c o m m e rc ia l b a n k e rs g e n e ra lly w o u ld s tro n g ly favor e n a c t m e n t o f l e g i s l a t i o n d e s i g n e d to b r o a d e n th e k i n d s o f s e c u r i t y on w h ic h c re d it c a n be a d v a n c e d by th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e b a n k s . 26 MINUTES OF JOINT C O N F E R E N C E OF THE F E D E R A L ADVISORY COUNCIL AND THE B O A R D O F G O V E R N O R S CF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM S e p t e m b e r 17 , 19 63 A t 1 0 :3 0 A . M . , a j o i n t c o n f e r e n c e Governors of th e Federal Reserve o f the S y stem F e d e r a l A d v is o r y C o u n c i l a n d the B o a rd of was h e ld in th e Board Room o f the F e d e r a l Reserve B u i ld i n g , W a s h in g t o n , D . C . P re sen t: M e m b e r s o f th e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s o f the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m : C h airm an Wm. McC. M a r tin , Jr.; V ic e J. L . R o be rtson , C h a s . N . S h e p a rd s o n , and Secretary, and P resent: Mr. Hobbs, J. M a u r ic e L . A. Kenyon, C. Canby B ald e rsto n ; Governors A s s is ta n t Secretary o f th e Board of G overnors. M e m bers o f th e F e d e r a l A d v is o r y C o u n c il: Mr. G e o r g e A . B. K enneth C h airm a n G e o r g e W . M i t c h e l l ; a l s o Mr. M e r r it t S h e r m a n , M urphy, F in le y P re s id e n t; M cRae, B r e id e n th a l, M essrs. K enneth Jam es W. V. L a w r e n c e H . M a rtin , L . Z w ie n e r , A sto n , E llio tt S id n e y M aestre, M c A llis te r, A . S toner, R o be rt John H erbert V . A. M oorhead, P rochnow , Sec r e tary, a n d W i l l i a m J . K o r s v i k , A s s i s t a n t S e c r e t a r y . A bsent: M r. H o w a r d C . P e t e r s e n P r e s id e n t M u rp h y r e a d t h e f i r s t i t e m o n th e A g e n d a , a n d th e c o n c l u s i o n s o f the C o u n c i l as give n in the C o n f i d e n t i a l M e m o r a n d u m to th e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s from the F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y Cou nc il as p rin ted on p a g e s th en c o m m e n t e d on The P r e s id e n t th e th en e n s u in g d i s c u s s i o n , in many c o m m e r c i a l 24, 25 and 26 o f th ese m in u te s . b u s in e s s read th e w h ic h banks are As a c o n s e q u e n c e o f th e s itu a tio n second m ost ite m m em bers c o n tin u in g g ro w th and the and of th e in th eir resp e ctiv e d is tric ts . the c o n c lu s io n s C o u n c il to a g g r e s s i v e l y of such T h e m e m b e rs of the C o u n c i l o u tlo o k seek o f th e C o u n c i l . p a r tic ip a te d , d is c lo s e d tim e and s a v in g s The th at b a la n c e s . fu n d s , a m a rk e d ly le s s e r degree of liq u id ity had been a c c e p t e d b y t h e b a n k s . In response in d ic a te d that in to a q u e s tio n th e ir from ju d g m e n t G overnor bankers M itc h e ll, g e n e ra lly several w o u ld not m em bers favor o f th e C o u n c i l p e rm ittin g the c o r p o ra te u s e o f s a v i n g s a c c o u n t s . The P re s id e n t read th e th ird ite m and th e c o n c lu s io n of the C o u n c il. A b rief d is c u s s io n f o llo w e d in w h i c h m o s t m e m b e r s o f th e C o u n c i l p a r t i c i p a t e d . The fo urth a n d P re s id e n t. fifth ite m s and th e c o n c lu s io n s o f th e C o u n c i l w e re th e n r e a d by th e In t h e d i s c u s s i o n w h i c h f o l l o w e d b o t h i t e m s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d . 27 G overnor M itc h e ll s ta te d th a t m a n y fo re ig n o b s e r v e r s a d v o c a t e d a m ore fle x ib le fis c a l p o lic y i n c lu d i n g a tax c u t, a la rg e r d e f i c i t , i n c r e a s e d governm ent s p e n d in g , to g e t h e r w ith a more r e s t r ic t iv e m o n e ta ry p o l i c y a n d h ig h e r in t e r e s t r a t e s . C h airm a n M a rtin s tate d th a t the p r o b le m ho w m u c h the S y s te m c o u l d c o n t r i b u t e of real concern to a s o l u t i o n H e o b s e rv e d th a t the C o u n c i l s e e m e d to e n d o r s e W h ile there w ere s o m e i n d i c a t i o n s th e r a te , h o w m u c h , i f a n y t h i n g , to d is c u s s io n . The rates w o u ld in d u c e C h airm a n s h o u ld be as th e added lo w th e to as S y s te m 's th at he p o s s ib le Federal rece nt in c r e a s e a c tio n had th e had had take n p ro d u c in g The in was th e d is c o u n t rate. reacte d a c c o m p lis h e d c o n s is te n tly w ith o u t the la r g e s t a m o u n t o f c a p i t a l f o r m a t io n . Reserve th e b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s p ro b le m . th at the E u r o - d o lla r m a rk e t in in te re s t of to th e c h a n g e r e m a in e d open th e p o s itio n that in fla tio n because that b a la n c e of pay m ents pro ble m , how ever, w a s a c o m p lic a tin g facto r. P re s id e n t M urphy th e n read the C o u n c il's response B oard o f G o v e rn o rs to the C h a irm e n o f the S e n a te m itte e s on th e be advanced proposed le g is la tio n by the Federal to b r o a d e n Reserve banks. the and k in d s P re s id e n t fe lt th a t the le g is la t iv e p r o p o s a l w a s very c o n s t r u c t i v e . T he m e e tin g a d jo u r n e d a t 1 2 :4 0 P .M . 28 to House th e r e c o m m e n d a tio n s B a n k in g of s e c u rity M urphy and on added o f the C urrency Com w h ic h that c re d it can the C o u n c il NOTE: T h i s t r a n s c r i p t o f t h e S e c r e t a r y ! s n o t e s is n o t to b e r e g a r d e d as c o m p l e t e o r n e c e s s a r i l y e n t i r e l y a c c u r a t e * T h e t r a n s c r i p t is f o r t h e s o l e u s e of t h e m e m b e r s of the Federal Advisory Council. The concise official minutes f o r t h e e n t i r e y e a r sire p r i n t e d a n d d i s t r i b u t e d l a t e r * H.V*P. W. J#K. T h e S e c r e t a r y !s n o t e s o f t h e m e e t i n g of t h e F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l o n S e p t e m b e r 16, 1 9 6 3 at 9 : 3 0 s u m * in R o o m 9 3 2 of t h e M a y f l o w e r H o t e l , W a s h i n g t o n , D* C* A l l m e m b e r s of the Federal A d v i s o r y C ouncil were present* The C o u n c i l a p p r o v e d t h e S e c r e t a r y 1 s n o t e s f o r t h e m e e t i n g of May 20-21, 1 9 6 3 . ITEM I W H A T A R E THE. V I E W S O F T H E M E M B E R S O F PROBABLE C O U R S E OF E C O N O M I C A C T I V I T Y D U R I N G T H E R E M A I N D E R O F 1 9 6 3 AND. T H E IN D I S C U S S I N G T H I S G E N E R A L . Q U E S T I O N , COMMENT ON T H E F O L L O W I N G ITEMS: T H E C O U N C I L AS TO T H E IN TH E UNITED STATES E A R L Y P A R T OF 1964? T H E C O U N C I L M A Y W I S H TO (a) DO. R E C E N T L E V E L S O F R E S I D E N T I A L B U I L D I N G A C T I V I T Y A P P E A R T O BE, F I R M L Y BASED., AND. I S F U R T H E R E X P A N S I O N A N T I C I P A T E D ? (b) D O E S T H E L I Q U I D A T I O N O F STEE L , I N V E N T O R I E S A C Q U I R E D E A R L I E R T H I S Y E A R A P P E A R T O H A V E A B O U T R U N ITS COURSE, OR IS F U R T H E R L I Q U I D A T I O N IN P R O S P E C T ? (c) HAS A N Y I M P O R T A N T C H A N G E B E E N O B S E R V E D R E C E N T L Y IN PROSPECTS. F O R P L A N T A N D E Q U I P M E N T EXPENDITURES? (d) D O E S T H E .COUNCIL. C O N T I N U E . Q E T H E O P I N I O N , E X P R E S S E D A T I T S P R E V I O U S M E E T I N G W I T H THE. BOARD., T H A T C O M P E T I T I V E P R E S S U R E S R E S U L T I N G F R O M U N U S E D D O M E S T I C C A P A C I T Y , AS W E L L A S F R O M M A N U F A C T U R E R S . ABROAD.., W I L L T E N D T O B E S U F F I C I E N T T O D I S C O U R A G E BROAD. P R I C E R I S E S IN T H E _________ R E L A T I V E L Y N E A R F U T U R E ? ______________ __________ P r e s i d e n t M u r p h y r e a d I t e m I a n d i n v i t e d the m e m b e r s Council to c o m m e n t . An extended discussion followed* of t h e T h e r e w a s g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t t h a t e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y in t h e U n i t e d ^ a t e s d u r i n g t h e r e m a i n d e r o f 1 9 6 3 a n d e a r l y p a r t of 1961]. w i l l c o n tinue to i n c r e a s e m o d e r a t e l y . S e v e r a l m e m b e r s m e n t i o n e d that they relieve t h e c u r r e n t o p t i m i s m i n t h e b u s i n e s s c o m m u n i t y w a s b a s e d in part on t h e a n t i c i p a t i o n o f a t a x c u t . T h e f a i l u r e , t h e r e f o r e , of a tax cut to m a t e r i a l i z e w a s o n e o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s in t h e c u r r e n t economic s i t u a t i o n * The persistent d e f i c i t i n o u r b a l a n c e of p a y ments w a s c i t e d a s a n o t h e r * S e v e r a l m e m b e r s w e r e of t h e o p i n i o n t h a t c e r t a i n t y p e s of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n h a d b e e n o v e r - b u i l t in t h e i r a r e a s * How ever, m o s t m e m b e r s of t h e C o u n c i l b e l i e v e t h a t the r e c e n t b u i l d i n g of s i n g l e f a m i l y h o m e s h a s b e e n r e l a t i v e l y f i r m l y b a s e d . There was g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t t h a t the a b u n d a n c e of l o n g - t e r m funds seeking i n v est m e n t h a d c o n t r i b u t e d i m p o r t a n t l y to t h e s t r o n g e x p a n s i o n in apartment b u i l d i n g . S e v e r a l m e m b e r s f e l t t h i s r e s u l t e d in som e speculative b u i l d i n g of m u l t i - f a m i l y u n i t s ^ In contrast, a number of m e m b e r s r e p o r t e d a r a t h e r f i r m d e m a n d f o r a p a r t m e n t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y by the y o u n g e r a n d o l d e r p o p u l a t i o n g r o u p s . In general, residential c o n s t r u c t i o n p r o b a b l y w i l l e x p e r i e n c e a s i d e w a y s m o v e m e n t in the period a h e a d w i t h n o p r o n o u n c e d u p w a r d t r e n d . A d i s c u s s i o n d i s c l o s e d t h a t t h e m e m b e r s of t h e C o u n c i l are of the o p i n i o n t h a t t h e l i q u i d a t i o n of t h e s t e e l i n v e n t o r i e s a c q u i r e d earlier t h i s y e a r h a a a b o u t r u n i t s c o u r s e . T h e r e w a s w i d e a g r e e m e n t t h a t t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s of b u s i n e s s m e n have i m p r o v e d s i n c e t h e l a s t m e e t i n g w i t h t h e B o a r d . This, t o gether w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e i n c o r p o r a t e c a s h f l o w s , the g a i n in corporate p r o f i t s , a n d t h e p r e s s u r e to m o d e r n i z e f o r c o m p e t i t i v e cost r e a s o n s , e n h a n c e s t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r an e x p a n s i o n in p l a n t a n d equipment e x p e n d i t u r e s i n t h e m o n t h s a h e a d . The m e m b e r s o f t h e C o u n c i l c o n t i n u e to b e l i e v e t h a t b r o a d price r i s e s a r e u n l i k e l y i n t h e r e l a t i v e l y n e a r f u t u r e . However, because of t h e e x p a n s i o n i n p r o d u c t i o n i n r e c e n t m o n t h s , o u r i n d u s trial p l a n t is b e i n g m o r e f u l l y u t i l i z e d . A s a c o n s e q u e n c e , the competitive p r e s s u r e s f r o m u n u s e d d o m e s t i c c a p a c i t y w h i c h have dis couraged p r i c e a d v a n c e s i n t h e p a s t , h a v e b e e n r e d u c e d s o m e w h a t . Recent i n c r e a s e s i n p r o d u c t i v i t y , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t e n d to c o n t r i bute to p r i c e s t a b i l i t y . I T E M II DOES. .THE. C.QUNGIL...DETECT. A N Y S U B S T A N T I A L S L A C K E N I N G I W feANK E F F O R T S TO A T T R A C T T I M E A N D S A V I N G S D E P O S I T S ? A N Y C H A N G E IN T H E P A T T E R N OF B A N K I N V E S T M E N T O F T H E S E S A V I N G S I N F L O W S ? ____________________________ M u r p h y r e a d I t e m II. I t w a s r e p o r t e d t h a t b a n k s are a l l o c a t i n g ~ess of t h e i r a d v e r t i s i n g b u d g e t s to s a v i n g s d e p a r t m e n t s , s u g g e s t i n g a s o m e w h a t l e s s i n t e n s i v e e f f o r t to a t t r a c t s u c h f u n d s . O n the o t h e r -"and, m o s t m e m b e r s o f t h e C o u n c i l r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e y c o u l d s e e no slackening of e f f o r t i n t h e i r d i s t r i c t s . Aside from a few isolated instances, t h e r e w a s n o g e n e r a l e a s i n g o f r a t e s p a i d f o r s u c h f u n d s . A brief d i s c u s s i o n on b a n k investment followed. As b a n k s h a v e reduced S . g o v e r n m e n t p o r t f o l i o s a n d a d d e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y to t h e i r foldings o f m u n i c i p a l s e c u r i t i e s a n d m o r t g a g e s , b a n k l i q u i d i t y h a s essened. S e v e r a l m e m b e r s o f t h e C o u n c i l f e l t , h o w e v e r , t h a t this "rend h a d g o n e a b o u t as f a r a s it c o u l d . C o n s e q u e n t l y , c h a n g e s in tank i n v e s t m e n t p o r t f o l i o s in t h e p e r i o d a h e a d w i l l t e n d to b e l e s s barked d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t i m e a n d s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s w i l l c o n t i n u e "o a c c o u n t f o r a g r o w i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l d e p o s i t s * 3. I T E M III AS A R E S U L T O P H I G H L E V E L S OF A C T I V I T Y A N D O F C H A N G E S IN B U S I N E S S T A X L A W S , T H E F L O W O F I N T E R N A L L Y G E N E R A T E D B U S I N E S S F U N D S HAS I N C R E A S E D S U B S T A N T I A L L Y T H I S Y E A R , W H I L E D E P E N D E N C E ON B A N K A N D M A R K E T F I N A N C I N G A P P E A R S T O H A V E DECLINED.* D.O. T H E M E M B E R S OF T H E COUNCIL E X P E C T B U S I N E S S N E E D S F O R B A N K F I N A N C I N G TO C O N T I N U E M O D E R A T E O V E R T H E B A L A N C E O F T H E Y E A R O R A R E T H E R E S I G N S OF S I G NIFICANT I N C R E A S E IN B U S I N E S S LOANS? DOES T H E COUNCIL FEEL THAT BANKS, B Y A N D L A R G E , A R E S U F F I C I E N T L Y L I Q U I D T O M E E T A M O D E R A T E UPSURGE IN C R E D I T D E M A N D S W I T H O U T S U B S T A N T I A L PORTFOLIO REAR R A N G E MENT?____________________________________ P r esi dent M u r p h y r e a d It e m III* In the d i s c u s s i o n w h i c h followed, the m e m b e r s o f t h e C o u n c i l i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y e x p e c t b u s i n e s s n e e d s for b a n k f i n a n c i n g t o i n c r e a s e s e a s o n a l l y o v e r t h e b a l a n c e o f t h e year* D e s p i t e t h e d e c l i n e i n l i q u i d i t y of the b a n k i n g s y s t e m , t h e Council b e l i e v e s t h e c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s are in a p o s i t i o n to m e e t a moderate u p s u r g e i n c r e d i t d e m a n d ' . w i t h o u t . s u b s t a n t i a l l $ a r t f re« p g erne n t « ITEM IV WHAT A R E T H E C O U N C I L ' S O B S E R V A T I O N S R E G A R D I N G CURRENT ATTITUDES IE. T H E B U S I N E S S A N D F I N A N C I A L C O M M U N I T Y T O W A R D U* S. B A L A N C E OF PAYMENTS D E V E L O P M E N T S ? H O W DOES THE COUNCIL APPRAISE THE GENERAL R E C E P T I O N OF T H E R E C E N T ACTIONS A N D PROPOSALS DESIGNED TO D E A L W I T H T H I S P R O B L E M ? P r e s i d e n t M u r p h y r e a d ^ t e m IV* I n the d i s c u s s i o n w h i c h f o l l o w e d , it was g e n e r a l l y a g r e e d t h a t t h e r e is a h e i g h t e n e d c o n c e r n in t h e business a n d f i n a n c i a l c o m m u n i t y r e g a r d i n g U. S.* b a l a n c e of p a y m e n t s developments. I t w a s r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e r e c e n t a c t i o n s of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve S y s t e m d e s i g n e d t o d e a l w i t h t h e p r o b l e m w e r e f a v o r a b l y r e ceived, e s p e c i a l l y t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e . It w a s a l s o reported t h a t t h e r e is s o m e d o u b t a b o u t t h e m e r i t of t h e e q u a l i z a t i o n tax p r o p o s e d b y t h e T r e a s u r y , a l t h o u g h m a n y p e r s o n s w e r e e n c o u r a g e d by the f a c t t h a t s p e c i f i c a c t i o n w a s b e i n g t a k e n i n a n e f f o r t to cope w i t h o u r p a y m e n t s d i f f i c u l t i e s . It w a s a g r e e d t h a t t h e C o u n c i l should i n c l u d e i n i t s c o m m e n t s t h e o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t t h e s o l u t i o n to our b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s p r o b l e m i n v o l v e s f i s c a l p o l i c y , o v e r s e a s defense e x p e n d i t u r e s , a n d f o r e i g n a i d o u t l a y s * A s t h e s e do n o t f a l l within t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f t h e m o n e t a r y a u t h o r i t i e s , m o n e t a r y policy a l o n e c a n n o t b e e x p e c t e d to m e e t t h e p r o b l e m of t h e d e f i c i t in our i n t e r n a t i o n a l p a y m e n t s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the Council beli e v e s some f u r t h e r t i g h t e n i n g o f m o n e t a r y p o l i c y m i g h t b e d e s i r a b l e . ITEM V HOW DOES THE C O U N C I L E V A L U A T E T H E IMPACT OF CURRENT M ON E T A R Y AND C R EDIT P O L I C Y ? ___________________________________________ P r e s i d e n t M u r p h y r e a d I t e m V, As m o n e t a r y p o l i c y h a d already °9en d i s c u s s e d i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e o t h e r i t e m s o n t h e A g e n d a , the c o m m e n t s a t t h i s p o i n t w e r e r a t h e r b r i e f * It w a s agg§ ed that current m o n e t a r y a n d c r e d i t p o l i c y h a s h a d a f a v o r a b l e i m p a c t o n the financial a n d b u s i n e s s c o m m u n i t y . A b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n f o l l o w e d on the l e g i s l a t i o n r e c o m m e n d e d b y the B o a r d to b r o a d e n t h e k i n d s o f s e c u r i t i e s on w h i c h c r e d i t c a n be f i n a n c e d b y t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e b a n k s . T h e m e m b e r s of the Council w e r e o f t h e o p i n i o n t h a t c o m m e r c i a l b a n k e r s g e n e r a l l y would s t r o n g l y f a v o r e n a c t m e n t of t h i s l e g i s l a t i o n . The r e w a s some doubt as to w h e t h e r s u c h a d v a n c e s w o u l d b e d o n e at a p e n a l t y r a t e or at the c u s t o m a r y d i s c o u n t r a t e . I t w a s d e c i d e d to d i s c u s s thi s orally at t h e f o r t h c o m i n g m e e t i n g w i t h t h e B o a r d . The m e e t i n g a d j o u r n e d a t 1 2 : 2 5 p . m . T H E C O U N C I L C O N V E N E D I N T H E B O A R D R O O M OF T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B U I L D I N G , W A S H I N G T O N , D. C., A T 2 : 3 0 P . M . , ON S E P T E M B E R 16, 1 963. A L L M E M B E R S OF T H E C O U N C I L W E R E PRESENT* Dr. R a l p h A. Y o u n g , D i r e c t o r , a n d m e m b e r s of t h e s t a f f o f the Division of I n t e r n a t i o n a l F i n a n c e , d i s c u s s e d T h e B r o o k i n g s R e p o r t . A resume o f t h e d i s c u s s i o n is to b e si$nt to t h e m e m b e r s of the Council a t a l a t e r d a t e . T H E C O U N C I L C O N V E N E D A T 8 : 3 0 P . M . ON S E P T E M B E R 1 6 , 1 9 6 3 , IN R O O M 9 3 2 O F T H E M A Y F L O W E R H O T E L . A L L M E M B E R S OF T H E COUNCIL WERE PRESENT* The C o u n c i l p r e p a r e d a n d a p p r o v e d t h e a t t a c h e d C o n f i d e n t i a l M e m o r a n d u m to b e s e n t t o t h e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s r e l a t i v e to t h e Agenda f o r t h e j o i n t m e e t i n g o f t h e C o u n c i l a n d t h e B o a r d on September 17, 1 9 6 3 # T h e M e m o r a n d u m w a s d e l i v e r e d to t h e F e d e r a l Reserve B u i l d i n g a t 1 0 : 3 0 pt.m. o n S e p t e m b e r 16, 1 9 6 3 . The m e e t i n g a d j o u r n e d at 9 : 2 5 p.m. CONFIDENTIAL 6 MEMORANDUM TO THE ECARD OF GOVERNORS FROM THE FEDERAL ADVISORY COUNCIL RELATIVE TO THE AGENDA FOR THE JOINT MEETING ON SEPTEMBER 17, 1963 1. What are the views of the members of the Council as to the probable course of economic activity in the United States during the remainder of 1963 and the early part of 1964? In discussing this general question, the Council may wish to comment on the following items: (a) Do recent levels of residential buiiding activity appear to be firmly based, and is further expansion anticipated? (b) Does the liquidation of steel inventories acquired earlier this year appear to have about run its course, or is further liqui dation in prospect? (c) Has any important change been observed re cently in prospects for plant and equipment expenditures? (d) Does the Council continue of the opinion, expressed at its previous meeting with the Board, that competitive pressures resulting from unused domestic capacity, as well as from manufacturers abroad, will tend to be sufficient to discourage broad price rises in the relatively near future? The members of the Council anticipate that economic activity in the United States during the remainder of 1963 and the early part of 1964 will continue to increase moderately. The persistent deficit in our balance of payments, the reaction which might occur if a tax cut did not materialize and the fact that the current period of expansion has already run over 2-1/2 years are soma uncertainties in the current economic situation. (a) While certain types of residential construction in particular areas of the country have been overbuilt, most members of the Council believe that the recent building of single family homes has been relatively firmly based. One of the facts involved in the strong expansion in apartment building has been the abundance of long-term funds seeking investment. This probably has resulted in some speculative building of multi-family units. On the other hand, in many areas of the country there is a demand -2- for apartments, particularly by the younger and older population groups. In general, residential construction will probably experience a sideways move ment with no pronounced upward trend. (b) The members of the Council are of the opinion that the liqui dation of steel inventories acquired earlier this year has about run its course. (c) The expectations of businessmen have improved since the last meeting with the Board in May. This change in sentiment increases the prospects for an expansion in plant and equipment expenditures in the months ahead. (g ) The Council continues to believe that broad price rises are unlikely in che relatively near future. However, the substantial rise in production since Kay reduces somewhat the competitive pressures resulting from unused domestic capacity which have discouraged price advances in the past. Recent increases in productivity tend to contribute to price stability. 2. Does the Council detect any substantial slackening in bank efforts to attract time and savings deposits? Any change in the pat term of bank investment of these savings inflows? The members of the Council believe that banks are making a somewhat less intensive effort to attract time and savings deposits. However, this has not been reflected in an easing of rates paid for such funds* The charges in Regulation Q were interpreted by many commercial bankers as an indication that the monetary authorities would permit them to pay competitive rates in the money markets* Those funds sensitive to changes in yields in the money market would therefore be less apt to move out of the banking system. Many bankers fait that their need for liquidity had been lessened somewhat, and they changed their investment policies by adding substantialiy to their holdings of municipal securities and mortgages. Although the members of the Council believe that time and savings deposits in the future will account for an increasing percentage of total deposits, the rate of increase will not be as sharp as in the past two years. As a consequence, changes in bank investment portfolios will tend to be less marked. 3. As a result of high levels of activity and of changes in business tax laws, the flow of internally generated business funds has increased substantially this year, while dependence on bank and market financing appears to have declined. Do the members of che Council ex pect business needs for bank financing to continue moderate over the balance of the year or are there signs of significant increase in business loans? 6 -3Does the C o u n c il f e e l th a t banks, by and la r g e , are s u f f i c i e n t l y l i q u i d to meet a moderate upsurge in c r e d it demands w ith o u t s u b s t a n t ia l p o r t f o li o r e arrangem ent? The members of the Council expect business needs for bank financing to increase seasonally over the balance of the year. While the liquidity of the banking system has declined, the Council believes that the commercial banks are in a position to meet a moderate upsurge in credit demands without substantial portfolio rearrangement. 4. What are the Council's observations regarding current attitudes in the business and financial community toward U. S» balance of payments developments? How does the Council appraise the general reception of the recent actions and proposals designed to deal with with this problem? Although the persistent deficit in our international payments and the loss of gold are somewhat remote from the ever}Tday affairs and activities of most businessmen, the Council believes that there is heightened concern in the business and financial community regarding U« S. balance of payments developments • The actions of the Federal Reserve System designed to deal with this problem have been favorably received, especially the increase in the discount rate. There is sone doubt, however, about the merit of the equalization tax proposed by the Treasury, although many persons were encouraged by the fact that specific action was being taken in an effort to cope with our payments difficulties. As the Council has observed in the past, the solution to our balance of payments problem involves fiscal policy, overseas defense expenditures and foreign aid outlays which do not fall within the responsibility of the mone tary authoritieso Monetary policy alone can therefore not be expected to meet the problem of the deficit in our international payments. Nevertheless, the Council believes some further tightening of monetary policy might be desirable. 5. IIow does the Council evaluate the impact of current monetary and credit policy? As suggested in Item IV, the Council believes that current monetary and credit policy has had a favorable impact on the financial and business community. * * * * * * * * * * * * 6 -4The B o a rd w o u ld a ls o l i k e t o have any v ie w s t h a t th e C o u n c il may c a r e t o e x p re s s on th e l e g i s l a t i o n t h a t h a s b e e n recom m ended t o b ro a d e n th e k in d s o f s e c u r it y on w h ic h c r e d i t c a n be a d v a n c e d by th e F e d e r a l R eserve banks. T hese re c o m m e n d a tio n s were in c lu d e d i n th e B o a r d 's l e t t e r o f A u g u s t 21 t o th e C h airm en o f th e S e n a te a n d H ouse B a n k in g and C u rre n c y C o m m itte e s. The members o f t h e C o u n c il b e l i e v e t h a t c o m m e rcia l b an k e rs g e n e r a lly s t r o n g l y f a v o r e n a c tm e n t o f l e g i s l a t i o n d e s ig n e d to b ro a d e n th e k in d s 0f s e c u r it y on w h ic h c r e d i t c a n be a d v a n c e d by th e F e d e r a l R eserve b a n k s. would ON S E P T E M B E R 17, 1 9 6 3 , AT 1 0 : 3 0 A * M * , T H E F E D E R A L A D V I S O R Y C O U N C I L H E L D A J O I N T MEETING. W I T H T H E B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M IN T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B U I L D I N G , W A S H I N G T O N D_. C. A L L M E M B E R S OF THE C O U N C I L W E R E P R E S E N T E X C E P T MR. H O W A R D C. P E T E R S E N W H O W A S CALLED H O M E B E C A U S E OF A N A U T O M O B I L E A C C I D E N T I N V O L V I N G H I S SON. T H E F O L L O W I N G M E M B E R S OF T H E B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S W E R E PRESENT: C H A I R M A N M A R T I N , VICE. C H A I R M A N B A L D E R S T O N , G O V E R N O R S ROBER T S O N , SHEPARDSON AND MITCHELL. MR. SHERM A N , S E C R E T A R Y , A N D MR. K E N Y O N , A S S I S T A N T SECRE T A R Y , OF T H E B O A R D OF GO V E R N O R S , A L S O W ERE PRESENT. The m i n u t e s of the j o i n t m e e t i n g are b e i n g p r e p a r e d in the office of the S e c r e t a r y of t h e B o a r d of G o v e r n o r s of the F e d e r a l Re s e r v e System* T h e i r c o n t e n t w i l l b e c o m p a r e d w i t h the notes of the S e c r e t a r y of the C o u n c i l . A s s u m i n g t h e y a r e in s u b s t a n t i a l agreement, they w i l l be d i s t r i b u t e d to t h e m e m b e r s of t h e Council* The m e e t i n g a d j o u r n e d at 12:ij.O p*m* The n e x t m e e tin g o f th e C o u n c il w i l l be November 18-19, 1963*