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M IN UTES OF MEETINGS of the FE D E R A L A D V ISO RY COUNCIL 1963 M INUTES OF MEETINGS of the FED ER A L ADVISORY COUNCIL February 1849, 1963 May 2021, 1963 September 16T7, 1963 November 1849, 1963 OFFICERS AN D M E M B E R S OF THE F E D E R A L ADVISORY COUNCIL F o r th e Y e a r 1963 O F F IC E R S : E X E C U T IV E C O M M IT T E E : President, George A. Murphy Vice President, Robert B. Hobbs Director, Howard C. Petersen Director, J . Finley McRae Director, Kenneth V. Zw iener Secretary, Herbert V. Prochnow A ssistant Secretary, W illiam J . Korsvik George A. Murphy Robert B. Hobbs Howard C. Petersen J . F inley McRae Kenneth V. Zwiener MEM BERS: Lawrence H. Martin D istrict No. D istrict No. D istrict No. D istric t No. D istrict No. D istrict No. D istrict No. D istrict No. D istrict No. D istrict No. D istrict No. D istrict No. George A. Murphy Howard C. Petersen L. A. Stoner Robert B. Hobbs J . Finley McRae Kenneth V. Zwiener Sidney Maestre John A. Moorhead Maurice L . Breidenthal James W. Aston E llio tt M cA llister 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 B Y -L AW S O F T H E F E D E R A L A D V I S O R Y C O U N C I L ARTICLE I. OFFICERS The O ffic e rs of th is tors, an d a S e c re tary , tiv e C o m m itte e . C o u n c il s h a ll be a a ll o f w h o m , e x c e p t the P re s id e n t, S ecretary, V ic e P re s id e n t, s h a ll a ls o th re e D ire c s e r v e a s the E x e c u ARTICLE II. PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT The d u tie s of a b s e n c e th e V ic e the P r e s id e n t s h a ll be such as u s u a lly p e r ta in to th e o ffic e ; in h i s P re s id e n t s h a ll se rv e . ARTICLE III. SECRETARY T he S ecretary tio n s h a ll be a s a la r ie d s h a ll be fix e d by the E x e c u tiv e ARTICLE The E x e c u tiv e C o m m itte e , th e P r e s id e n t, V ic e o ffic e r o f th e C o u n c il a n d h is as and com pensa EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE IV . in d ic a te d P re s id e n t, an d d u tie s C o m m itte e . in th e th ree A r tic le I o f th e b y - l a w s , s h a l l c o n s i s t of D ir e c to r s . ARTICLE V. DUTIES OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE It B oard s h a ll of be th e m u lg a tio n s , and to the C o u n c il, re g u la r a n d The fo r th e of from th e E x e c u tiv e Federal th e sam e C o m m itte e s h a ll s p e c ia l m e e tin g s a n d E x e c u tiv e C o m m itte e of a ll m e e tin g s A m a jo rity o f th e E x e c u tiv e s h a ll be by m a jo rity th e keep in w ith its power fu ll of th e c lo s e to u ch w i t h th e re g u la tio n s a n d pro C o u n c il, a n d to su g g e s t of c o n s id e ra tio n . to fix o f g iv in g pow er, th e n o tic e as tim e and p la c e of h o ld in g th ere of. o ffic e rs o f th e C o u n c il , to act C o u n c il. E x e c u tiv e C o m m itte e fo rw ard ed C o m m itte e of th o s e to and m em bers m atte rs have or d ig e s t th e r e o f s h a l l be im m e d ia t e ly C o m m itte e th e m e th o d s of th e o f th e S y ste m to have s h a ll m e e tin g s C o m m itte e Reserve tim e to t im e , s p e c i a l C o u n c il b etw e en M in u te s of th e to c o m m u n ic a te T he E x e c u tiv e its d u ty G overnors to e a c h s h a ll s h a ll be c o n s titu te present at any kept and s u c h m in ute s m e m b e r o f th e C o u n c il. a quorum , and a c tio n o f the m e e tin g . ARTICLE VI. MEETINGS R e g u la r m e e tin g s W a s h in g to n on the of ber of e ach y e ar, u n le s s A retary p r e lim in a ry in Federal S p e c ia l m e e tin g s o f th e A d v is o ry m o n th s o th e r w is e d ir e c te d m e e tin g accordance w ith m ay tiv e C o m m itte e , an d s h a ll m em bers o f th e C o u n c il. th e th ird T u e s d a y o f th e Federal in s tr u c tio n s be c a lle d be c a lle d by by th e be tim e th e and by p la c e th e h e ld in th e C ity of C o m m itte e . s h a ll be c a lle d P re s id e n t by th e upon be M a y , S e p te m b e r, and N ovem C o u n c il g iv e n P re s id e n t 2 s h a ll E x e c u tiv e A d v is o ry to at any C o u n c il of F ebruary, of by the S e c the C o u n c il. P r e s id e n t or th e E x e c u w r itte n request of any three A R T IC L E VII. A LT ERN A T ES In the absence of th e reg u lar r e p re s e n ta tiv e of any Federal Reserve D i s t r i c t , the Board of D ir e c t o r s o f th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f th a t D is t r ic t m ay a p p o in t an a lte rn a te . The a lte r n a te C o u n c il fo r so ap p o in te d w h ic h he has s h a ll have been t h e r i g h t t o b e p r e s e n t a t a l l t h e m e e t i n g s o f th e a p p o in te d . He s h a ll have th e rig h t to take p a r t in a l l d i s c u s s i o n s o f th e C o u n c i l b u t s h a l l n o t be e n t i t le d to v o te . A R T IC L E V III. AMENDMENTS These b y - la w s may be c h a n g e d or a m e n d e d at any r e g u l a r or s p e c i a l m e e t i n g b y a vote o f a m a j o r i t y o f th e m e m b e r s o f th e F e d e r a l A d v is o r y C o u n c i l . F e b ru a r y 18, 1963 3 R E P O R T OF T H E S E C R E T A R Y OF T H E F E D E R A L A D V IS O R Y C O U N C IL FO R THE Y E A R E N D E D D E C E M B E R 31, 1962 B a l a n c e on h a n d , S a l a r i e s .................................................. $ D e c e m b e r 3 1 , 1 9 6 L ...................$ 5 ,0 0 0 .0 0 8 ,7 1 2 .5 2 P r i n t i n g & S t a t i o n e r y ................ 6 1 9 .6 0 A ssessm e nts 12 F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a la n c e B a n k s ......................................... 5 ,4 0 0 .0 0 on h a n d , D e c e m b e r 31, 1962 . . . . $ 1 4 ,1 1 2 .5 2 8 ,4 9 2 .9 2 $ 1 4 ,1 1 2 .5 2 C h ic a g o , Illin o is February 1, 1 9 6 3 T o the F e d e r a l A d v is o r y C o u n c i l : I have a u d ite d the books, vouchers, and accounts o f the Secretary of th e Federal A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l fo r t h e y e a r e n d e d D e c e m b e r 3 1 , 1 9 6 2 , a n d c e r t i f y t h a t t h e a b o v e s t a t e m ent ag rees th e re w ith . R e sp e c tfu lly , T H E F IR S T N A T IO N A L BANK O F C H IC A G O (S ig n e d ) J . C a r l S om m er, A u d ito r 4 MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE F E D E R A L ADVISORY COUNCIL F e b r u a r y 18 , 1963 The first 1963 w a s and o rg a n iza tio n a l convened in Room 932 m e e tin g o f the o f th e Federal M a y flo w e r H o te l, A d v is o ry C o u n c il W a sh in g to n , for th e y e a r D. C ., on F e b r u ary 18, 1 9 6 3 , a t 9 : 3 0 A . M . P re sen t: L a w r e n c e H . M a r tin D is tric t No. 1 G eorge A . M urphy D is tric t N o. 2 H ow ard C . P e te r s e n D is tric t N o. 3 L . A . S toner D is tric t No. 4 Robert B. H o b b s D is tric t N o. 5 J . F in le y M c R a e D is tric t N o. 6 7 K enneth V. Z w ie n e r D is tr ic t N o. S id n e y M a e s tre D is tr ic t No. 8 Joh n A. M oorhead D is tric t No. 9 M a u ric e L . B r e i d e n t h a l D i s t r i c t N o . 10 J a m e s W. A s t o n D i s t r i c t N o . 11 E llio tt M c A llis te r D i s t r i c t N o . 12 H erbert V. P r o c h n o w Secretary W illia m J . K o r s v ik Mr. G e o r g e A . A s s is t a n t Secretary M urphy w a s e le c te d C h airm a n pro t e m a n d Mr. W i l l i a m J . K o rsv ik w as electe d S ec re tary p ro tem . The Secretary pro tem s ta te d Federal R e se rve banks, th at c o m m u n ic a t io n s c e rtify in g to th e e le c tio n had been re c e iv e d of th eir re s p e c tiv e fr o m t h e t w e l v e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s on the C o u n c i l fo r t h e y e a r 1 9 6 3 . The fo llo w in g o ffic e rs w ere n o m in a te d an d u n a n im o u s ly e le c te d : G eorge A . M urphy, P r e s id e n t Robert B . H o b b s , V ic e P re s id e n t H ow ard C . P e te r s e n , D ire c to r J . F in le y M c R a e , D ir e c to r K e n n e th V . Z w ie n e r , D ire c to r Herbert V . P r o c h n o w , S ecretary W illia m J . K o r s v ik , A s s is t a n t S e cre tary On m o tion d u ly made and seconded, the s a la r y of th e S e cre tary w a s a n n u a lly , and th a t of th e A s s is t a n t S ec retary at $ 2 ,0 0 0 a n n u a lly . 5 fix e d at $ 3 ,0 0 0 The a u d ite d Secretary by report w a s Mr. J . p resented Carl approved h is Som m er, and fin a n c ia l report A u d ito r of The p lace d on file . ordered for the F irs t A year 1962, N a tio n a l copy Bank o f the had been of C h ic a g o . w h ic h The report is a ttac h e d and m ade a part o f th e s e m i n u t e s . On C o u n c il m o tion , he ld on d uly made February and seconded, 19 - 2 0, 1962, the A p ril p rin te d 3- 4, m in u te s 1962, A p ril for ber 17-18, 1 9 6 2 , N o v e m b e r 1 9 - 2 0 , 1 9 6 2 , a n d t h e m i m e o g r a p h e d n o t e s N o v e m b e r 19-20, 1 9 6 2 , c o p i e s of w h ic h had been th e 30-M ay se n t p r e v io u s ly m e e tin g s 1, 1962, o f th e S ep tem of th e m e e tin g h e ld to th e m em bers o f the C o u n c il, w ere a p p r o v e d . On m o tio n , d u ly retary to a s k each made and s e co n de d , Federal and in c id e n ta l e x p e n s e s Reserve o f th e bank Federal a r e s o lu tio n to was c o n trib u te A d v is o ry a d op te d $ 4 5 0 .0 0 C o u n c il a u th o riz in g tow ard for th e y e a r th e th e S e c se c re ta ria l 1963 and to d ra w u p o n t h e m fo r t h a t p u r p o s e . A c o m p le te l i s t o f th e th e C o u n c i l are to be f o u n d ite m s in on th e a g e n d a for th e m e e tin g th e C o n f i d e n t i a l M e m o r a n d u m t he F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l , w h i c h f o l l o w s o n p a g e s and th e c o n c lu s io n s of to t h e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s from 9 , 10 a n d 11. T he m e e tin g a d jo u r n e d at 12 :3 5 P .M . HERBERT V. P R O C H N O W S ecretary W IL L IA M J. K O R S V IK A s s is ta n t Secretary ,y 6 MINUTES OF T H E MEETING OF T H E F E D E R A L ADVISORY COUNCIL F e b r u a r y 18, 1963 At 2:30 P .M ., the Federal A d v is o ry C o u n c il convened in th e B oard Room o f th e Federal R e se rv e B u ild in g , W a s h in g to n , D . C . P re sent: P etersen, L . M aestre, Mr. G e o r g e A . M u r p h y , P r e s i d e n t ; M e s s r s . L a w r e n c e H . M a r tin , H o w a r d C . A . S tone r, R o b e rt B . H o b b s , J . John A. M oorhead, M a u ric e L. F in le y M c R a e , K e n n e t h V . Z w i e n e r , S id n e y B r e id e n th a l, J a m e s W. A ston, and E llio tt M c A llis te r. M e m b e rs o f th e B o a r d ' s D i v i s i o n o f R e s e a r c h a n d S t a t is t ic s p a r t ic ip a t e d in an a u d io v isu al p r e s e n ta tio n on th e c u r re n t e c o n o m ic s it u a t io n . HERBERT V. PROCHN OW Secretary W IL L IA M J . K O R S V IK A s s is t a n t Secretary 7 MINUTES OF T H E M E E T I N G O F T H E F E D E R A L A D V I S O R Y C O U N C I L F e b r u a r y 1 8 , 1983 A t 9 :4 0 P .M . , the F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l r e c o n v e n e d in Room 9 3 2 o f th e M a y flo w e r H o te l, W a s h in g to n , D . C . P re sent: Mr. G e o r g e A . M u r p h y , P r e s i d e n t ; P etersen , L . A . S ton e r, R o b e r t B . H o b b s , J . M ae stre , J o h n A . M o o r h e a d , M a u r ic e L . The C o u n c il re v ie w e d th e o ffic e of th e its c o n c lu s io n s S ecretary of the F in le y B r ie d e n th a l, H erbert V. P r o c h n o w , S e c r e t a r y , a n d W i l l ia m to M essrs. J. M cRae, Jam es of the K enneth V . Z w i e n e r , S id ne y W. A s t o n , E l l i o t t M c A llis te r , ite m s G overnors w h ic h f o llo w s on p a g e s 9, 10 a n d 11, l i s t i n g th e a g e n d a it e m s by t h e C o u n c i l . w a s d e liv e re d The Memorandum H . M a r tin , H ow ard C . K o r s v ik , A s s is t a n t S ecretary. r e g a rd in g B oard Law rence to th e on the agenda, a n d sent the C o n f i d e n t i a l Memorandum and th e c o n c l u s i o n s reached Federal Reserve B u i l d i n g a t 1 1 :4 5 H ERB ER T V. PRO CH N O W P .M . on F e b ru a r y 18, 1 9 6 3 . T he m e e tin g a d jo u r n e d a t 1 0 :5 0 P .M . Secretary W IL L IA M J . K O R S V IK A s s i s t a n t Secretary 8 CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM TO THE B O A R D FROM FEDERAL R E L A T IV E THE A D V IS O R Y C O U N C IL TO T H E A G E N D A FOR ON F E B R U A R Y 1. W hat are n o m ic the o b s e r v a t io n s d e v e lo p m e n ts , and Board has in th e T H E JO IN T M E E T IN G 1 9 , 1963 C o u n c il re g a rd in g (a) recent d o m e s tic b u s in e s s o u tlo o k for t h e first eco h a l f o f 19 63 ( c ) D o th e m e m b e r s o f th e C o u n c i l b e l i e v e th a t the b u s in e s s stre n g th e n e d o f the (b) a n d th e y e a r a s a w h o l e ? im p ro v e m e n ts OF GOVERNORS p sy c h o lo g y further reported s in c e at the N o v e m b e r m e e tin g w ith th a t tim e , re m ain e d a b o u t t h e s a m e , or receded? a) Recent d o m e stic e c o n o m ic m ixed tre nd s th at h a v e p r e v a ile d the past d e v e lo p m e n ts several of c o n s u m e r s , a s e v i d e n c e d by r e t a i l s a l e s a n d in in d ic a te m o nth s. a c o n tin u a tio n W h ile o f th e th e s p e n d i n g b e h a v io r p a r t i c u l a r by th e v o lu m e o f new m o d e l a u t o m o b i l e s s o l d , h a s b e e n e n c o u r a g i n g , t h e d e c l i n e i n n e w o r d e r s fo r d u r a b l e g o o d s , th e fa ilu re o f in d u s t r i a l p ro d u c tio n sage, the together w ith to r i s e , d is c u s s io n of and a the u n c e rta in ty p o s s ib le tax cre ate d cu t, have by th e clo u d e d Budget Mes the im m e d ia te o u tlo o k . b) D e s p ite th e se im p o n d e r a b le s , how ever, th e C o u n c il a n tic ip a te s that b u s in e s s in th e firs t h a l f o f 1963 w i l l c o n t i n u e to s h o w th e m o d e r a te im p r o v e m e n t th a t c h a r a c te r iz e d the l a s t s ix m o n t h s o f 1 9 6 2 . c) p o r te d at th e The in E u r o p e , C a n a d a paym ents, C o u n c il Novem ber budget and T h e o u t l o o k fo r t h e l a s t h a l f o f 1 9 6 3 i s l e s s c e r t a i n . b e lie v e s m e e tin g has th at the receded im prov em en t som ew hat C u b a , t o g e t h e r w it h th e d e fic its , and e s p e c ia lly th e in s in c e b u s in e s s th at p ro b le m s a s s o c ia te d proposed tax tim e . ps y c h o lo g y re D e v e lo p m e n ts w ith the b a la n c e o f le g isla tio n , have le s s e n e d th e f a v o r a b l e s e n t i m e n t i n t h e b u s i n e s s c o m m u n i t y . 2. In th e o p in io n of th e C o u n c il, w hat facto rs s u g g e s t th e m o s t s t r e n g t h or e n c o u r a g e m e n t ? in th e current e c o n o m ic picture C o n v e r s e ly , w hat facto rs app e ar to be o f g r e a t e s t c o n c e r n ? In th e o p i n i o n m ajor source absence of o f th e C o u n c i l , th e p e r s i s t e n t s tr e n g th o f c o n s u m e r b u y in g is a encouragem ent of g ro w th in in v e n to rie s in th e current suggest th at e c o n o m ic new orders p ic tu re . and T h is p ro d u c tio n facto r w ill and the pro bab ly r is e , r e s u l t i n g in s o m e i m p r o v e m e n t in e m p l o y m e n t , i n c o m e , a n d o v e r - a ll e c o n o m i c a c t i v i ty . A b u ild - u p o f in v e n t o r ie s by ste el users 9 in a n tic ip a tio n of a s tr ik e c o u ld a l s o con- trib u te to a r is e in b u s i n e s s in the m o n t h s i m m e d i a t e l y a h e a d . E x c e s s p ro d u c tiv e c a p a c it y , the la c k o f v ig o r in c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s , th e r e la t iv e ly high le v e l of u n e m p lo y m e n t, a n d r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s newspaper s trik e s and th e d ep arture from the in la b o r n e g o tia t io n s , g u id e lin e s in the dock such s trik e as the s e ttle m e n t, a re c u r r e n t l y m a t t e r s o f e c o n o m i c c o n c e r n . 3. What are th e prospects for lo a n m onths, in c lu d in g d em and in b a n k in g s y ste m co n sid e re d dem and v a r io u s a m p le lo a n at banks d u rin g c a te g o rie s ? to a c c o m m o d a t e th e next several I s t h e l i q u i d i t y o f th e th e present and fo rs e e a b le v o lu m e o f c r e d it d e m a n d s ? The m em bers o f th e C o u n c il d u r in g th e n e x t s e v e r a l m o n t h s . goods sector, e s p e c ia lly re o p e n in g liq u id ity of the of th e ste el if ste el users lab o r b a n k in g a n tic ip a te Som e in c r e a s e in add co ntract. syste m is a m od erate lo an s is in c re a s e lik e ly to th e ir in v e n t o r i e s The ad eq uate m em bers of because the to a c c o m m o d a t e in lo a n to o c c u r in C o u n c il th e dem and th e d u ra b le o f th e p o s s ib le b e lie v e t h a t th e present and fo rs e e a b le le n d in g sta n d a rd s, v o lu m e o f c r e d it d e m a n d s . 4. D o e s the C o u n c il d e t e c t a n y sy m p to m s o f d e te rio ra tio n in p a r t i c u la r ly in th e f i e l d o f r e a l e s t a t e c r e d i t ? The la r ly in th e C o u n c il fie ld the m a t u r it ie s has observed of real e sta te of term lo an s . som e c re d it. d e te r io ra tio n There H ow ever, has le n d in g a ls o in le n d in g been som e standards standard s, pressure g e n e ra lly are p a rticu to le n g th e n c o n s i s t e n t w ith sou nd b a n k in g p ra c tic e s . 5. (a) the The Board w o u ld area o f tim e and a p p re c ia te s a v in g s the c o s t b u rd e n o f h ig h e r in t e r e s t banks of funds rep re sen te d c o m m e n ts d e p o s its , by rate such w ith respect in c lu d in g le v e ls , d e p o s its the and to d e v e lo p m e n ts trend of such w h e t h e r th e have been in d e p o s its , uses c o n s iste n t made w ith by ac c e pte d s ta n d a rd s o f b a n k liq u id ity a n d a s s e t q u a lit y . (b) Does the C o u n c il b e lie v e from th e r a p id l y e x p a n d i n g u s e or t h a t d e p o sits unsound b a n k in g of th is ty p e ? th at c o n d itio n s How c o m p e titiv e of n e g o tia b le m ig h t w o u ld the per c e n t in th e m a x im u m p e r m i s s i b l e abuses corporate a ris e from C o u n c il lik e ly w id e s p re a d regard in te r e s t rate are c e rtific a te s an to arise of d e p o sit re lia n c e in c r e a s e on to 3 - 1 / 2 p a y a b le un d er R e g u la tio n Q on tim e d e p o s its h a v in g a m a tu r ity o f l e s s th a n s ix m o n t h s ? (a) A lth o u g h cre ase has s lo w e d c o n s id e ra b ly th erm o re , because of s h ifts in tim e and is th e and d is tr ib u tio n y e a r , th e s q u e e z e on b a n k p r o f it s c u r r e n t ly i s th e p r e s s u r e to e x p a n d w hat. As ards, but m a tu ritie s and g e n e ral, th e le n d in g and of le ss bank has been in v e s tm e n t 10 c o n tin u e th an it w a s a sse ts th at th a n it w a s som e p o lic ie s accep te d s tan dard s of b a nk liq u id ity and a s s e t q u a lity . d e p o s its le s s to b u y h ig h e r y i e l d i n g th e C o u n c i l h a s o b s e r v e d , t h e r e in s a v in g s s u b s ta n tia lly to e x p a n d , th e rate o f in a year ago. w ere a year ago. asse ts has lib e ra liz a tio n have been Fur e ffe cted la s t A c c o r d in g ly , le sse n e d in som e c r e d it stan - c o n s is te n t w ith b) arisen from that unsound th is ty pe . su lte d use ra p id ly b a n k in g H ow ever, in of The the im p o rta n t th ese C o u n c il e x p a n d in g use c o n d itio n s th e does have g ro w th not a ris e n s h ifts in th e of d ep o sit ty pes to re lian c e c e rtific a te s a sse ts. te nd s ig n ific a n t co m p e titiv e w ide sp read corporate of bank w ill th at corporate c e rtific a te s fr o m of n e g o tia b le c e rtific a te s b e lie v e of n e g o tia b le on d ep osits the of o f d e p o s i t h a s re A c o n tin u in g e x p a n sio n le sse n ab uses have o f d e p o s i t or liq u id ity of th e in t h e b a n k in g s y s te m b e c a u s e o f th e p r e s s u r e to u s e t h e s e f u n d s p r o f i t a b l y . The C o u n c il c r e a s e to 3 - 1 / 2 b e lie v e s th a t b a n k e r s g e n e r a lly w o u ld not p re se n tly favor an i n per c e n t in the m a x im u m p e r m is s a b le in t e r e s t rate p o s s ib le u n d er R e g u latio n Q on tim e d e p o s i t s h a v i n g a m a t u r ity of le s s th an s ix m o n th s . 6. Has the C o u n c il noted part o f th e b u s i n e s s paym ents any and te n d e n c y tow ard th e h e igh te ne d concern on the f i n a n c i a l c o m m u n i t y w ith r e s p e c t to U .S . b a la n c e of d e v e lo p m e n ts ? Are th e d iffic u lt n e g o tia tio n s g o in g on w ith in th e E u r o p e a n E c o n o m i c C o m m u n it y a fa c to r to be ta k e n in t o a c c o u n t a n d a s u b je c t o f c o n c e rn to b a n k c u s t o m e r s . The C o u n c il h a s n o tic e d in c r e a s in g f in a n c ia l c o m m u n ity w ith r e s p e c t to th e U .S . in te r n a tio n a l in v e s tm e n t b a la n c e of paym ents and/or trade d e v e lo p m e n ts , concern b a la n c e in te r e s ts but are a ls o on th e p a r t o f th e b u s i n e s s an d of paym ents. p a rtic u la rly w ith th e C usto m ers who have concerned d iffic u lt not o nly n e g o tia tio n s w ith g oing on w ith in the E u r o p e a n E c o n o m i c C o m m u n i t y . 7. T he B oard w o u ld a p p r e c ia te th e C o u n c i l 's c o m m e n t s on e f f e c t s o b s e rv e d th us fa r from t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n a n d t a x c r e d i t p r o v i s i o n s a d o p t e d i n 1 9 6 2 . W ith th e e x c e p t i o n o f c e r t a i n i n d u s t r i e s , th e C o u n c i l h a s o b s e r v e d few e f fe c t s th at it w o uld 8. a ttrib u te What are the to th e d e p re c ia tio n C o u n c il’ s v ie w s and tax re g a rd in g c re d it the p r o v is io n s im p a c t ad op te d of m o ne tary c re d it p o lic y in and 1962. c re d it p o lic y under current c o n d it io n s ? The C o u n c il gene rally fa v o r a b le b e lie v e s th at im p a c t on the current econom y. m o ne tary T h is p o lic y and has been has had a a c o n s tr u c tiv e factor in t h e d o m e s t i c e c o n o m y a n d a t t h e s a m e t i m e h a s b e e n h e l p f u l t o t h e b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s . * :|; * The purposes of P. C o u n c il L. fo r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . ** favo rs 87-588, the “ To :|: :|: r e v is io n im p r o v e of the R e g u la tio n u s e fu ln e s s M in te n d e d of n a tio n a l carry out the branches in In c o n s i d e r i n g th e B o a r d ' s p r o p o s e d r e v i s io n , m e m b e rs of the C o u n c il have r e v ie w e d th e c o m m e n t s o f c e r t a i n n a tio n a l b a n k s w ith b ran ch e s abro ad. c il b e lie v e s th a t t h e ir s u g g e s t i o n s m e r it c o n s i d e r a t i o n by th e B o a r d . to bank 11 The C o u n MINUTES OF JOINT C O N F E R E N C E OF T H E F E D E R A L ADVISORY COUNCIL A N D T H E B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM F e b r u a r y 1 9 , 1963 At 10 :3 0 A .M ., a of G o v e r n o r s o f the jo in t confe rence Federal Reserve of the S y stem Federal was A d v is o ry he ld in th e C o u n c il B oard and Room the B o ard of the F e d e r a l R e se rv e B u ild in g , W a s h in g to n , D . C . P re sen t: M e m b e rs o f th e B o a rd o f G o v e r n o r s o f th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m : C h airm a n J. L. Wm. R o be rtso n M cC. and M a rtin , Chas N. Jr.; V ic e C h a irm a n Shepardson; a ls o C. Mr. Canby M e rritt B a ld e rs to n ; Sherm an, G overnors S ecretary, and Mr. K e n n e t h A . K e n y o n , A s s i s t a n t S e c r e t a r y o f th e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s . P re sen t: M em bers of the F e d e r a l A d v is o r y C o u n c il: M r. G e o r g e A . M u r p h y , P r e s i d e n t ; M e s s r s . L a w r e n c e L. A. S to n e r, Robert B. Hobbs, J. F in le y M cRae, H . M a rtin , H o w a rd C . P e te rs e n , K enneth V. Z w ie n e r , S id n e y M aestre, J o h n A . M o o r h e a d , M a u r ic e L . B r e i d e n t h a l, J a m e s W. A s t o n , E l l i o t t M c A l l i s t e r , H e rb e rt V. P ro c h n o w , S ecretary, and W illia m P re s id e n t C o u n c il as M urphy read expressed in the the J . K o rs v ik , A s s is ta n t S ecretary. firs t ite m Confidential on the Agenda Memorandum to F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l , a s p r in t e d o n p a g e s 9 , 10 a n d d is c u s s io n on the b u s in e s s o u tlo o k lin e d d e v e lo p m e n ts a n d c o n d it io n s fo llo w e d in and the the Board 11 o f t h e s e w h ic h th e c o n c lu s io n s of Governors m in u te s . m em bers in th e ir p a r t ic u la r d is t r ic t s . of An extended the T h e ir w as o f the from the C o u n c il out general a g re e m e n t th a t b u s in e s s in th e fir s t h a l f o f 19 6 3 w o u ld c o n t in u e to im p r o v e m o d e r a te ly . m e m b e rs o f th e C o u n c il s a id Several t h a t t h e r e j e c t i o n o f t h e B r i t i s h b id for e n t r y i n t o th e C o m m o n M arket h ad h ad an u n s e ttlin g e ffe c t on th e p s y c h o lo g y o f th e b u s in e s s c o m m u n ity . The P re s id e n t b rie f d is c u s s io n P re s id e n t m arks fo r th en M urphy th a t fo llo w e d n e g o tia b le read the second ite m and th e c o n c lu s io n s of th e C o u n c il. A fo llo w e d . read the in c lu d e d c e rtific a te s th ird ite m and a d is c u s s io n of d e p o s it. th e c o n c lu s io n s r e g a rd in g Several th e o f the sta tu s m em bers C o u n c il. of the su g g e ste d T h e re secondary th at th e m arket secondary m a r k e t for c e r t i f i c a t e s h a d im p r o v e d . The P re s id e n t th e n read th e fo u rth ite m on the c u s s io n th at fo llo w e d , som e m em bers a c k n o w le d g e d ards had a tio n fo r occurred. over an e a rn in g s c o n trib u te d They extended to to p ro v id e th is s u g g e ste d p e rio d for of a in te re s t d e v e lo p m e n t. th at the r e la tiv e ly pay m ents O th er in te n s e easy on m em bers 12 Agenda. D u rin g th at a d e te rio ra tio n a of c o m p e titio n m o n e tary larg e r the for v o lu m e of general d is lo a n s , p o lic y , C o u n c il th e of le n d in g sta n d and tim e w ere th e c o n t in u the n e c e s s ity d e p o s its , le s s d is p o s e d had to u se th e w ord p r a c tic e s . d e te rio ra tio n and argued th at there had been, in s te a d , c h a n g e s in l e n d i n g In m a n y i n s t a n c e s , t h e s e m e t c o m m u n i t y n e e d s a n d r e f l e c t e d f a v o r a b l y o n t h e b a n k in g s y s te m . S e v e r a l m e m b e r s s a i d t h e y w e re d i s t u r b e d by r e p o r ts o f a u t o l o a n s r u n n in g 42 m o n th s to m a t u r i t y . P re s id e n t C o u n c il. M urphy He added th e d e s i r a b i l i t y of an on t i m e d e p o s i t s lik e to see the read th e th a t th ere fifth was in c r e a s e item to 3 - 1 / 2 the Agenda e lim in a te d and of o p in io n per c e n t in h a v in g a m aturity of le s s r e g u la tio n on so m e d iffe r e n c e the m a x im u m th a n s ix m o n th s . e n tire ly , the the m ajo rity c o n c lu s io n s w ithin of the t h e C o u n c i l a s to in te r e s t rate p a y a b le W h ile s o m e m e m b e rs w o u ld of b a n k e r s w o u ld fa v o r the rete n tio n o f R e g u l a t i o n Q a n d th e p r e s e n t m a x im u m p e r m is s ib le r a t e s . C h airm a n M a rtin , in r e p ly to an in q u ir y from a m e m ber of th e C o u n c il, there w a s no g re a t p r e s s u r e a t th e m o m e n t to c h a n g e th e r e g u la t i o n . p la c e d on creases in th e Agenda for th e R e g u la tio n Q purpose m a x im u m of d is c u s s io n . rates w ere p a y m e n t s a n d to th e m o v e m e n t o f sh o rt- te rm f u n d s . look w ith fa v o r on th e s e p a r a t i o n o f d o m e s t ic He rela te d to sug ge ste d, the s ta te d th at T he item had been how ever, d e fic it in th e that in b a la n c e of T h e C h a ir m a n a d d e d th a t he d id not a n d fo re ig n tim e d e p o s its w hen d is c u s s in g in te re s t rate l im i t a t i o n s . P r e s i d e n t M u rp h y r e a d th e s ix t h it e m a n d the c o n c l u s i o n s of th e C o u n c i l . C h a ir m a n M a rtin a furth er e a s i n g q u e s tio n e d of money. w h e th e r the d o m e s tic A re la te d q u e s tio n , he economy s h o u ld c o n tin u e d , b e s t i m u l a t e d by in v o lv e d w h ic h the b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s w a s a f f e c t e d b y i n t e r e s t rate d i f f e r e n c e s . added th at it w a s h is rated. vie w th at d o m e s tic and the e x t e p t to The C h airm an in te r n a tio n a l p ro ble m s c o u ld n o t be s e p a T he C o u n c il m e m b e rs rep orte d th a t th e y had no e v id e n c e th at le g itim a te d e m a nd s for c r e d i t w e r e u n s a t i s f i e d . C h airm a n M a rtin n o te d th a t a lth o u g h lo an dem and had been good d u r i n g th e p a s t y e a r , th e c o n v e n t i o n a l l y - d e f i n e d m o n e y s u p p l y h a d b e g u n to c o n t r a c t a g ain re c e n tly . As a r e s u lt, there w ere th o s e w ho m a in ta in e d had fo llo w e d a to o r e s t r ic t iv e m o n e ta ry p o lic y . The m em bers a s u b s ta n tia l th a t th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e o f th e C o u n c il in d ic a te d they d id n o t a g r e e . C h airm a n M a rtin in d ic a te d tim e a n d s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s that he b e lie v e d p o r tio n o f th e grow th of o v e r th e p a s t y e a r m i g h t be r e g a rd e d a s v i r t u a ll y th e e q u i v a lent of d e m a n d d e p o s i t s . G o v e rn o r B a l d e r s t o n s t a t e d t h a t p rio r to th e c h a n g e in R e g u l a t io n Q , tim e a n d s a v in g s d e p o s i t s h a d b e e n g r o w i n g a t a n a n n u a l r a t e o f a b o u t 12 per c e n t . S u b s e q u e n tly they had g ro w n a t a n a n n u a l r a t e o f 18 p e r c e n t . The P r e s id e n t th en o f th e C o u n c i l . read th e 7th a n d A very b rie f d i s c u s s i o n 8th ite m s fo llo w e d . The meeting adjourned at 1:00 P.M. 13 on th e Agenda and th e c o n c l u s i o n s NOTE: T h i s t r a n s c r i p t o f t h e S e c r e t a r y 1 s n o t e s is n o t to b e regarded, as c o m p l e t e o r n e c e s s a r i l y e n t i r e l y a c c u r a t e . The t r a n s c r i p t is f o r t h e s o l e u s e o f t h e m e m b e r s of t h e F e d e r a l Advisory Councils T h e c o n c i s e o f f i c i a l m i n u t e s f o r the entire y e a r are p r i n t e d a n d d i s t r i b u t e d l a t e r 0 H 0V 0P 0 WoJ*K0 The S e c r e t a r y ?s n o t e s o f t h e m e e t i n g o f t h e F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l o n F e b r u a r y 1 8 , 1 9 6 3 , a t 9 s 3 0 A * M es, i n R o o m 9 3 2 of the M a y f l o w e r H o t e l , W a s h i n g t o n , D® C 0 A l l m e m b e r s of the F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l w e r e present,, The S e c r e t a r y p r o v i d e d e a c h m e m b e r w i t h a l i s t o f a l l the m e m b e r s the C o u n c i l f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 6 3 , o f f i c i a l l y e l e c t e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h :orjiuni cat i o n s r e c e i v e d f r o m t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e b a n k s 0 Mr. G e o r g e A* M u r p h y w a s e l e c t e d C h a i r m a n p r o Icrsvik w a s e l e c t e d S e c r e t a r y p r o t e m P The f o l l o w i n g officers were nominated t e m a n d Mr, W i l l i a m J< a n d u n a n i m o u s l y elected? G e o r g e A. M u r p h y 9 P r e s i d e n t Robert B 0 Hobbs, Vice President Howard C 0 Petersen, Director J. F i n l e y M c R a e , D i r e c t o r Kenneth V 0 Zwiener? Director Herbert V Q Prochnow, Secretary W illiam J c Korsvik, Assistant Secretary On m o t i o n , d u l y m a d e ---7-ec. at $ 3 , 0 0 0 a n n u a l l y , dually. a n d s e c o n d e d , t h e s a l a r y of t h e S e c r e t a r y w a s a n d t h a t o f t h e A s s i s t a n t S e c r e t a r y at $ 2 * 0 0 0 ^ The S e c r e t a r y p r e s e n t e d t h e f i n a n c i a l r e p o r t f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 6 2 P %"?ri k e e n a u d i t e d b y M r 0 J 0 C a r l S o m m e r , A u d i t o r of The First i^'ional B a n k o f Chicago,, T h e r e p o r t w a s a p p r o v e d a n d p l a c e d on file, 'fill be p r i n t e d a n d i n c l u d e d i n t h e f o r m a l p r i n t e d m i n u t e s 0 , ^ A m o t i o n w a s a d o p t e d a u t h o r i z i n g t h e S e c r e t a r y to d r a w d r a f t s f o r upon e a c h F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k f o r t h e s e c r e t a r i a l a n d i n c i d e n t a l 'irises of t h e F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 6 3 o ^ The b y - l a w s w e r e r',;e3 for t h e m e e t i n g A\ t h e 1 9 6 2 m e e t i n g s ^ o u s l y to m e m b e r s approved,. T h e C o u n c i l a p p r o v e d t h e S e c r e t a r y !s of N o v e m b e r 1 9 ~ 2 0 , 1 9 6 2 D T h e p r i n t e d m i n u t e s for o f t h e C o u n c i l , c o p i e s of w h i c h h a d b e e n sent o f t h e C o u n c i l , a l s o w e r e approved,, ITEM I tfgAT A R E T H E O B S E R V A T I O N S O P T H E C O U N C I L R E G A R D I N G - (a) R E C E N T DOMESTIC E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T S , A N D (b) T H E B U S I N E S S O U T L O O K F O R FIRST H A L F OF 19 6 3 A N D T H E Y E A R AS A WHOL E ? (c) DO THE MEMBERS THE C O U N C I L B E L I E V E T H A T T H E I M P R O V E M E N T I N B U S I N E S S P S Y C H O L O G Y ^PORTED AT THE NOVEMBER MEETING WITH THE BOARD HAS STRENGTHENED FUR THER S I N C E T H A T T I M E , R E M A I N E D A B O U T T H E S A M E , O R R E C E D E D ? _______________ j Murphy w e l c o m e d t h e n e w m e m b e r s invited e a c h m e m b e r t o c o m m e n t . to t h e Council. He then read Item I A general d i s c u s s i o n on r e c e n t economic developments follo w e d w h i c h suggested a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t h e m i x e d t r e n d s t h a t h a d p r e v a i l e d i n t h e devious s e v e r a l m o n t h s . A n u m b e r of m e m b e r s l i s t e d as e n c o u r a g i n g t h e lending b e h a v i o r o f c o n s u m e r s as e v i d e n c e d b y r e t a i l s a l e s a n d i n p a r t i cular by the v o l u m e o f n e w a u t o m o b i l e s s o l d . The d e c l i n e in n e w orders durable g o o d s , t h e f a i l u r e o f i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n t o r i s e , a n d t h e •-certainty c r e a t e d b y t h e B u d g e t M e s s a g e , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e d i s c u s s i o n 0f a p o s s i b l e t a x c u t , h a v e c l o u d e d t h e i m m e d i a t e o u t l o o k . Despite t h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s , t h e m e m b e r s a n t i c i p a t e t h a t b u s i n e s s in ::_e first h a l f o f 1 9 6 3 w i l l c o n t i n u e to s h o w t h e m o d e r a t e i m p r o v e m e n t -hat c h a r a c t e r i z e d t h e l a s t s i x m o n t h s o f 1 9 6 2 * The o u t l o o k for the last half of 1 9 6 & is l e s s c e r t a i n . There w a s f a i r l y w i d e a g r e e m e n t t h a t t h e i m p r o v e m e n t i n b u s i n e s s rsjchology r e p o r t e d a t t h e N o v e m b e r m e e t i n g h a d r e c e d e d s o m e w h a t s i n c e :'nat time. S e v e r a l m e m b e r s c i t e d as a d v e r s e f a c t o r s r e c e n t e v e n t s i n I^ope, C a n a d a , a n d C u b a , t h e p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e b a l a n c e o f regents a n d b u d g e t d e f i c i t s , a n d t h e p r o p o s e d t a x l e g i s l a t i o n . I n the opinion of m o s t o f t h e m e m b e r s o f t h e C o u n c i l , t h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s h a v e lessened t h e f a v o r a b l e s e n t i m e n t i n t h e b u s i n e s s c o m m u n i t y * I T E M II IT T H E O P I N I O N O F T E E C O U N C I L , ..WE A T . . . F A C T O R S I N THE. C U R R E N T E C O N O M I C PICTURE..SUGGEST! THE. M0.S.T S T R E N G T H O R E N C O U R A G E M E N T ? CONVERSELY, :I5AT. J?A.CTORS__ A P P E A R T O B E O F G R E A T E S T C O N C E R N ? .‘ foppky r e a d I t e m I I a n d o b s e r v e d t h a t m a n y f a c t o r s b e a r i n g o n t h i s ^ e c t had b e e n c o n s i d e r e d in the p r e c e d i n g d i s cussion. A c c o r d i n g l y * the ^-".ents t h a t f o l l o w e d w e r e r a t h e r b r i e f . It w a s g e n e r a l l y a g r e e d t h a t t h e p e r s i s t e n t s t r e n g t h of c o n s u m e r is t h e m a j o r s o u r c e of e n c o u r a g e m e n t in t h e c u r r e n t e c o n o m i c pic* A n u m b e r of m e m b e r s n o t e d t h a t the a b s e n c e of g r o w t h in inventories ^■??ssted t h a t n e w o r d e r s a n d p r o d u c t i o n w i l l p r o b a b l y r i s e , r e s u l t i n g i n •^ i m p r o v e m e n t i n e m p l o y m e n t , incojne a n d o v e r - a l l e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y . ' Possible b u i l d - u p o f i n v e n t o r i e s b y s t e e l u s e r s i n a n t i c i p a t i o n of a e could also c o n t r i b u t e to a r i g e in b u s i n e s s in the m o n t h s i m m e diately Mart*• ^xcess p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y , t h e l a c k o f v i g o r i n c a p i t a l s p e n d i n g , t h e ,'^tively h i g h l e v e l o f u n e m p l o y m e n t , r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s i n l a b o r .^Jtiations, s u c h as t h e n e w s p a p e r s t r i k e s , a n d t h e d e p a r t u r e f r o m the -alines a r e c u r r e n t l y m a t t e r s of e con omi c i n t h e d o c k s t r i k e s e t t l e m e n t , ncern* IT E M III tfHAtt A R E T H E P R O S P E C T S F O R L O A N D E M A N D A T B A N K S D U R I N G T H E N E X T S E V E R A L MONTHS', I N C L U D I N G D E M A N D I N V A R I O U S L O A N C A T E G O R I E S ? IS T H E L I Q U I D I T Y QT? THE B A N K I N G S Y S T E M C O N S I D E R E D A M P L E T O A C C O M M O D A T E T H E P R E S E N T A N D FO R E S E E A B L E V O L U M E O F C R E D I T D E M A N D S ? ___________________________________________ _ Murphy r e a d I t e m III a n d i n v i t e d c o m m e n t f r o m m e m b e r s . The ensuing j^scussion d i s c l o s e d t h a t t h e m e m b e r s of t h e C o u n c i l a n t i c i p a t e a m o d e r a t e ■-crease i n l o a n d e m a n d d u r i n g t h e n e x t s e v e r a l m o n t h s . A n i n c r e a s e i n the Arable g o o d s s e c t o r is l i k e l y i f s t e e l u s e r s a d d to t h e i r i n v e n t o r i e s b e muse of the p o s s i b l e r e o p e n i n g o f t h e s t e e l l a b o r c o n t r a c t * The m e m b e r s o f t h e C o u n c i l b e l i e v e t h a t t h e l i q u i d i t y of the b a n k i n g --stem is a d e q u a t e t o a c c o m m o d a t e t h e p r e s e n t a n d f o r e s e e a b l e v o l u m e of :*edit d e m a n d s . S e v e r a l m e m b e r s o b s e r v e d , however, that a vigorous e x pansion in t h e e c o n o m y c o u l d q u i c k l y t i g h t e n b a n k c r e d i t . ITEM IV HOES T H E .CLQUNCIL l D E T E C T A H Y $ 1 * M P T 0 M S OP D E T E R I O R A T I O N I N L E N D I N G S T1A—N DARDS, P~fl~RTTHT J L A R L Y —T N— .................1 T H E “ frTELD O F ■ R E A L E S T A T* ............. E .C .............■■■■■■ R E D I■—T ?- ... — . - ■■ - ■■■ y ...................... ............ .Murphy r e a d I t e m I V . T h e C o u n c i l c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e r e w a s some deterioration i n l e n d i n g s t a n d a r d s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e f i e l d o f r e a l estate c r e d i t . S e v e r a l m e m b e r s r e p o r t e d p r e s s u r e o n t h e p a r t of borrowers f o r l o n g e r m a t u r i t i e s o f t e r m l o a n s . Despite these develop ments, h o w e v e r , t h e C o u n c i l b e l i e v e s t h a t l e n d i n g s t a n d a r d s g e n e r a l l y are consistent w i t h s o u n d b a n k i n g p r a c t i c e s * ITEM V 'a) T H E B O A R D W O U L D A P P R E C I A T E .COMMENTS W I T H R E S P E C T TO D E V E L O P M E N T S ::: t h e a r e a o f t i m e a n d s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s , i n c l u d i n g t h e t r e n d o p s u c h :e p o s i t s _, t h e c o s _t b u r d e n o e h i g h e r i n t e r e s t r a t e l e v e l s , a n d w h e t h e r THE U S E S M A D E BY. BANKS.. Q E F U N D S R E P R E S E N T E D B Y S U C H D E P O S I T S H A V E BEEN C O N S I S T E N T W I T H A C C E P T E D . S T A N D A R D S O F B A N K L I Q U I D I T Y A N D A S S E T -7A L T T Y . (b) D O E S T H E C O U N C I L BELIEVE. THAT C O M P E T I T I V E AB U S E S ARE L I K E L Y TO A R I S E F R O M THE. R A P I D L Y . E X P A N D I N G U S E O F N E G O T I A B L E C O R P O R A T E CERTIFICATES, O E D E P O S I T O R T H A T U N S O U N D B A N K I N G C O N D I T I O N S M I G H T A R I S E PROM W I D E S P R E A D R E L I A N C E O N D E P O S I T S Q E T H I S T Y P E ? H OW W OULD THE OOTHCIL R E G A R D A N I N C R E A S E T O 3 - 1 / 2 P E R C E N T I N T H E M A X I M U M P E R M I S S I B L E INTEREST.. R A T E P A Y A B L E U N D E R R E G U L A T I O N Q O N T I M E D E P O S I T S H A V I N G A g M l B I T Y O E L E S S T H A N S I X M O N T H S ? ___________________________________________________ M u r p h y r e a d I t e m V* I n t h e d i s c u s s i o n w h i c h f o l l o w e d , the m e m b e r s ■"he C o u n c i l a g r e e d t h a t w h i l e t i m e a n d s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s c o n t i n u e to 'Vana, the r a t e o f i n c r e a s e h a s s l o w e d c o n s i d e r a b l y a n d t h a t it is s u b _^ n t i a l l y l e s s t h a n i t w a s a y e a r a g o . M o s t m e m b e r s b e l i e v e t h a t the p e e z e o n b a n k p r o f i t s c u r r e n t l y is l e s s t h a n it w a s a y e a r a g o b e c a u s e the s h i f t s i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f b a n k a s s e t s t h a t w e r e e f f e c t e d l ast In t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , t h e p r e s s u r e to e x t e n d m a t u r i t i e s a n d to b u y --per y i e l d i n g a s s e t s h a s l e s s e n e d s o m e w h a t . W h i l e the members acknowthe l i b e r a l i z a t i o n i n c r e d i t s t a n d a r d s , th<^re w a s f a i r l y w i d e jjfj^ement t h a t t h e l e n d i n g a n d i n v e s t m e n t p o l i c i e s h a v e b e e n c o n s i s t e n t ^ accepted s t a n d a r d s of b a n k l i q u i d i t y and asset quality* The C o u n c i l d o e s n o t b e l i e v e t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t c o m p e t i t i v e a b u s e s iiave a r i s e n f r o m t h e r a p i d l y e x p a n d i n g u s e of n e g o t i a b l e c o r p o r a t e ’ ertificates o f d e p o s i t o r t h a t u n s o u n d b a n k i n g c o n d i t i o n s h a v e a r i s e n the w i d e s p r e a d r e l i a n c e o n d e p o s i t s of thi s t y p e . A n u m b e r of m e m ters o b s e r v e d , h o w e v e r , t h a t a c o n t i n u i n g e x p a n s i o n of the u s e of t h e s e Certificates o f d e p o s i t , w o u l d t e n d to l e s s e n t h e l i q u i d i t y of the b a n k i n g system b e c a u s e o f t h e p r e s s u r e t o u s e t h e s e f u n d s p r o f i t a b l y . In the d i s c u s s i o n o n t h e p o s s i b l e i n c r e a s e to 3 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t i n the maximum p e r m i s s i b l e r a t e p a y a b l e u n d e r R e g u l a t i o n Q. o n t i m e d e p o s i t s having a m a t u r i t y o f l e s s t h a n s i x m o n t h s , it w a s o b s e r v e d t h a t b a n k e r s generally w o u l d n o t f a v o r a n i n c r e a s e , A n u m b e r of m e m b e r s of the jouncil a d d e d t h a t t h e y p e r s o n a l l y w o u l d f a v o r g r e a t e r f l e x i b i l i t y i n t h e rates w h i c h b a n k s m a y p a y . I T E M VI HAS THE. C0UNC.IL. N O T E D A N Y T E N D E N C Y T O W A R D H E I G H T E N E D C O N C E R N ON T H E PART 0 E T HE. B U S I N E S S A N D FINANCIAL.. C O M M U N I T Y W I T H R E S P E C T TO U. S. B A L ANCE O F P A Y M E N T S D E V E L O P M E N T S ? A R E THE. D I F F I C U L T N E G O T I A T I O N S GOING. O N W I T H I N T H E E U R O P E A N E C O N O M I C C O M M U N I T Y A F A C T O R T O B E T A K E N INTO A C C O U N T A N D A S U B J E C T O F C O N C E R N T O B A N K C U S T O M E R S ? Murphy r e a d I t e m VI, T h e m e m b e r s r e p o r t e d i n c r e a s i n g c o n c e r n o n the part of the b u s i n e s s a n d f i n a n c i a l c o m m u n i t y w i t h r e s p e c t to t h e U. S 0 balance of p a y m e n t s . T h i s Is p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e o f c u s t o m e r s w i t h i n t e r national i n v e s t m e n t a n d / o r t r a d e i n t e r e s t s . The difficult negotiations going on w i t h i n t h e E u r o p e a n E c o n o m i c C o m m u n i t y a l s o a r e b e i n g c l o s e l y followed, ITEM VII THE B O A R D W O U L D A P P R E C I A T E T H E C O U N C I L TS C O M M E N T S O N E F F E C T S O B S E R V E D THUS F A R F R O M T H E D E P R E C I A T I O N A N D T A X C R E D I T P R O V I S I O N S A D O P T E D IN 1962 , ____________ Murphy r e a d I t e m VII. W i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of c e r t a i n i n d u s t r i e s P of which r a i l r o a d s a r e a n o u t s t a n d i n g e x a m p l e * t h e m e m b e r s of t h e C o u n c i l W e o b s e r v e d f e w e f f e c t s t h a t t h e y w o u l d a t t r i b u t e to t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n snd tax c r e d i t p r o v i s i o n s a d o p t e d i n 1 9 6 2 . ITEM VIII >/HAT A R E T H E C O U N C I L S V I E W S R E G A R D I N G T H E I M P A C T O F M O N E T A R Y A N D CREDIT. P O L I C Y U N D E R C U R R E N T C O N D I T I O N S ? ______ Murphy r e a d I t e m V T T T a n d a d d e d that the C o u n c i l * s c u stomary reply this q u e s t i o n w a s p r o b a b l y a p p r o p r i a t e . T h i s w a s a g r e e d w i t h the 2uS g e s t i o n t h a t t h e C o u n c i l a l s o s h o u l d n o t e t h a t t h e p o l i c y h a s b e e n a i n s t r u c t i v e f a c t o r i n t h e d o m e s t i c e c o n o m y a n d at t h e s a m e t i m e h a s Je®n h e l p f u l to t h e b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s . There w a s a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n of t h e B o a r d ’s p r o p o s e d r e v i s i o n of ,,tulation M, c o p i e s o f w h i c h h a d b e e n p r e v i o u s l y f o r w a r d e d to the 'fibers of t h e C o u n c i l . T h e C o u n c i l d e c i d e d to i n d i c a t e its a p p r o v a l r e v i s i o n o f t h e R e g u l a t i o n w i t h t h e s u g g e s t i o n t h a t the c o m m e n t s ^ r t a i n n a t i o n a l b a n k s w i t h b r a n c h e s a b r o a d s h o u l d b e c a r e f u l l y con-* ;;^red b e f o r e t h e r e v i s i o n is f i n a l l y p u b l i s h e d . The m e e t i n g adjourned at 1 2 : 3 5 P . M . /% /v /v 4\ 4\ /v’ "/v* "/C sr - /C THE C O U N C I L C O N V E N E D I N T H E B O A R D R O O M OP T H E F E D E R A L RESERVE B U I L D I N G , W A S H I N G T O N , D . C. , A T 2 : 3 0 P . M . ON F E B R U A R Y 1 8 , 1963 * Members of t h e B o a r d * s D i v i s i o n of R e s e a r c h and S t a t i s t i c s partici rated in a n a u d i o - v i s u a l p r e s e n t a t i o n o n t h e c u r r e n t e c o n o m i c s i t u a t i o n Copies o f t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n a r e t o b e m a d e of the C o u n c i l b y t h e B o a r d ’s s t a f f . a v a i l a b l e to t h e m e m b e r s THE. C O U N C I L R E C O N V E N E D A T 9:l]-0 P . M . O N F E B R U A R Y l 8 , 1 9 6 3 * IN R O O M 9 3 2 O F T H E M A Y F L O W E R HOTEL.. A L L M E M B E R S OF THE COUNCIL WERE PRESENT. The C o u n c i l p r e p a r e d a n d a p p r o v e d t h e a t t a c h e d C o n f i d e n t i a l M e m o r andum to b e s e n t t o t h e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s r e l a t i v e to the A g e n d a f o r ‘ -"e joint m e e t i n g o f t h e C o u n c i l a n d t h e B o a r d o n F e b r u a r y 19, 1 9 6 3 o :~e M e m o r a n d u m w a s d e l i v e r e d t o t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B u i l d i n g at — P.M. o n F e b r u a r y 1 8 . The m e e t i n g a d j o u r n e d at 1 0 : ^ 0 P . M * CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM TO THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS FROM THE FEDERAL ADVISORY COUNCIL RELATIVE TO THE AGENDA FOR THE JOINT MEETING ON FEBRUARY 19, 1963 1. What are the o b s e rv a tio n s o f the C ouncil regarding (a) r e cent do m estic economic developm ents, and (b) the business o u tlo o k fo r the f i r s t h a l f o f 1963 and the year as a whole? (c ) Do the members o f the C ouncil b e lie v e th a t the improvements i n b u sin e ss psychology reported a t the November m ee ting w ith the Board has strengthened fu rth e r sin ce t h a t tim e , remained about the same, or receded? a) Recent do m estic economic developments in d ic a te a co n tin u a tion of the mixed tre n d s t h a t have p r e v a ile d the p ast several months. W hile the spending b e h a v io r o f consumers, as evidenced by r e t a i l sales and in p a r t i c u la r by the volume o f new model autom obiles s o l d , has been encouraging, the d e c lin e in new orders fo r durable g o o d s , the f a ilu r e of in d u s tr ia l p r o d u c tio n to r i s e , and the u n c e r ta in ty created by the Budget Message, to g e th e r w ith the d is c u s s io n o f a p o s s ib le tax c u t, have clouded the immediate o u tlo o k . b) D e s p ite these im p ond erables, however, the C ouncil a n tic ip a te s that business i n the f i r s t h a l f o f 1963 w i l l co ntinue to show the moderate improvement t h a t c h a r a c te r iz e d the l a s t s ix months o f 1962. The outlook for the la s t h a l f o f 1963 is le s s c e r t a in . c) The C o u n c il b e lie v e s th a t the improvement in business psychology re p o rte d a t the November m eeting has receded somewhat since that tim e. Developments i n E u ro p e5 Canada and Cuba, together w ith the problems a s s o c ia te d w ith the b a la n c e o f payments, budget d e f ic i t s , and e sp ecially the proposed ta x l e g i s l a t i o n , have lessened the favorable sentiment in the b u s in e s s community. 2. In the o p in io n o f the C o u n c il, what fa c to r s in the c u r r e n t economic p ic t u r e suggest the most s tre n g th or encouragement? C o n v e rse ly , what fa c to r s appear to be o f g r e a te s t co n c e rn 7 In the o p in io n o f the C o u n c il, the p e r s is te n t stre n g th o f con sumer buying is a m ajo r source o f encouragement in the c u rre n t economic p ictu re . T his f a c t o r and the absence o f growth in in v e n to r ie s suggest that new orders and p r o d u c tio n w i l l p ro b ab ly r i s e , r e s u lt in g in some improvement in employment, income, and o v e r - a ll economic a c t i v i t y . A build-up o f in v e n t o r ie s by s t e e l use rs in a n t i c ip a t i o n o f a s tr ik e could also c o n tr ib u te to a r i s e in b u sin e ss in the months im m ediately ahead. Excess p r o d u c tiv e c a p a c it y , the la c k o f v ig o r in c a p it a l expendi tures, the r e l a t i v e l y h ig h le v e l o f unemployment, and recent developments in labor n e g o t i a t i o n s , such as the newspaper strikes and the departure from the g u i d e l i n e s in the doc k strike settlement, are currently matters of economic concern. 3. What are the p ro sp ects fo r lo an demand a t banks du ring the next se v e ra l months, in c lu d in g demand in v arious lo an c a te g o rie s ? Is the l i q u i d i t y o f the banking system co n sid e re d ample to accommodate the present and fo re se e a b le volume o f c r e d it demands? The members o f the C o u n c il a n t ic ip a t e a moderate increase in loan demand d u r in g the next se v e ral months. Some increase in loans is lik e ly to occur in the d u ra b le goods s e c to r, e s p e c ia lly i f ste e l users add to t h e ir in v e n to r ie s because o f the p o s s ib le reopening o f the ste e l labor c o n tr a c t. The members o f the C oun cil b e lie v e th a t the l i q u i d i t y of the banking system i s adequate to accommodate the present and fo re seeable volume o f c r e d i t demands. 4. Does the C o u n c il d e te c t any symptoms o f d e te r io r a tio n in le n d in g s ta n d a r d s , p a r t i c u l a r l y in the f i e ld o f r e a l e s ta te c r e d it? The C o u n c il has observed some d e t e r io r a t io n in le n d in g standards, p a r t ic u la r ly in the f i e l d o f r e a l e s ta te c r e d it . There has a ls o been some pressure to le n g th e n the m a t u r it ie s o f term lo a n s . However, le n d in g standards g e n e r a lly are c o n s is t e n t w ith sound banking p r a c tic e s . 5. (a ) The Board w ould a p p r e c ia te comments w ith respect to developm ents i n the area o f time and savings d e p o s it s , in c lu d in g the tre nd o f such d e p o s its , the c o s t burden o f h ig h e r in t e r e s t ra te le v e ls , and w hether the uses made by banks o f funds represented by such d e p o s its have been c o n s is te n t w ith accepted stan d a rd s o f bank l i q u i d i t y and asse t q u a lit y . (b) Does the C o u n c il b e lie v e th a t c o m p e titiv e abuses are l i k e l y to a r is e from the r a p id ly expanding use o f n e g o tia b le c o rp o ra te c e r t i f i c a t e s o f d e p o s it or th a t unsound b a n k in g c o n d it io n s m ight a r is e from widespread r e lia n c e on d e p o s its o f t h is type? How would the C o u n c il re g a rd an in c re a s e to 3-1/2 per cent in the maximum p e r m is s ib le in t e r e s t r a te payable under R e g u la tio n Q on tim e d e p o s its h av in g a m a tu r ity o f le s s th an s ix months? a) A lth o u g h tim e and sav ings d e p o s its co n tin ue to expand, the r a t e o f in c re a se has slowed c o n s id e r a b ly a n d is s u b s t a n t ia lly le ss than i t was a year ago. F u rth e rm o re , because o f s h i f t s in the d is t r ib u t io n of bank assets t h a t were e ffe c te d l a s t y e ar, the squeeze on bank p r o f it s cu rre ntly is le s s th an i t was a year ago. A c c o rd in g ly , the pressure to e x te nd m a t u r it ie s and to buy h ig h e r y ie ld in g asse ts has lessened somewhat. -3As the Council has observed, there has been some liberalization in credit standards, but in general, the lending and investment policies ha~/e been consistent w i t h a c c e p t e d standards of bank liquidity and asset quality. b) The C o u n c il does not b e lie v e th a t s ig n if ic a n t com petitive abuses have a r is e n from the r a p id ly expanding use o f n e g o tia b le corporate c e r t if ic a t e s o f d e p o s it or th a t unsound banking c o n d itio n s have a ris e n from w idespread r e lia n c e on d e p o s its o f t h is type. However, the growth of n e g o tia b le c o rp o ra te c e r t i f i c a t e s o f d e p o s it has re s u lte d in im portant s h i f t s in the types o f bank a s s e ts . A c o n tin u in g expansion in the use o f these c e r t i f i c a t e s o f d e p o s it w i l l tend to lessen the l i q u i d i t y of the banking system because o f the pressure to use these funds p r o f it a b ly . The C o u n c il b e lie v e s th a t bankers g e n e ra lly would not presently favor an in c re a se to 3-1/2 per cent in the maximum p e rm issib le in te r e s t rate p o s s ib le under R e g u la tio n Q on time d e p o sits having a m a tu rity of less than s ix m onths. 6. Has the C o u n c il noted any tendency toward heightened con cern on the p a r t o f the business and f in a n c ia l community w ith re s p e c t to U. S. balance o f payments developments? Are the d i f f i c u l t n e g o tia tio n s going on w ith in the European Economic Community a fa c to r to be taken in to ac co un t and a s u b je c t o f concern to bank customers. The C o u n c il has n o tic e d in c r e a s in g concern on the p a r t o f the business and f i n a n c i a l community w ith respect to the U. S. balance o f payments. Customers who have in t e r n a t io n a l investm ent and/or trade in te r e s ts are p a r t i c u l a r l y concerned no t only w ith balance o f payments developments, b u t a ls o w ith the d i f f i c u l t n e g o tia tio n s going on w ith in the European Economic Community. 7. The Board would a p p r e c ia te the C o u n c il’ s comments on e f f e c t s observed thus fa r from the d e p r e c ia tio n and tax c r e d it p r o v is io n s adopted in 1962, W ith the e x c e p tio n o f c e r t a in in d u s t r ie s , the C ouncil has observed few e f f e c t s t h a t i t would a t t r i b u t e to the d e p r e c ia tio n and tax c r e d it p r o v is io n s adopted in 1962. 8. What are the C o u n c il's views re g a rd in g the impact o f m onetary and c r e d it p o lic y under c u rre n t c o n d itio n s ? The C o u n c il b e lie v e s th a t c u rre n t monetary and c r e d it p o lic y has had a g e n e r a lly fa v o ra b le im pact on the economy. This p o lic y has been a c o n s tr u c tiv e f a c t o r i n the dom estic economy and a t the same time has been h e lp f u l to the b a la n c e o f payments. ★ vt The C o u n c il fa v o rs the r e v is io n o f R e g u la tio n M intended to carry out the purposes o f P. L. 87-588, "To improve the u se fu ln e ss o f n a tio n a l bank branches in fo r e ig n c o u n t r ie s ." In c o n s id e rin g the B oard's proposed r e v is io n , members o f the C o u n c il have reviewed the comments o f c e r ta in n a tio n a l banks w ith branches ab ro a d . The C o un cil b e lie v e s th a t th e ir sug gestions m e r it c o n s id e r a tio n by the Board. 6 ON F E B R U A R Y 1 9 , 1 9 6 3 , A T 1 0 : 3 0 A . M . , T H E F E D E R A L A D V I S O R Y C O U N C I L H E L D A J O I N T M E E T I N G W I T H T H E B O A R D O P G O V E R N O R S OP T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M I N T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B U I L D I N G , W A S H I N G T O N , D.C. ALL M E M B E R S OP T H E C O U N C I L W E R E PRESENT. THE F O L L O W I N G M E M B E R S OP T H E B O A R D OP G O V E R N O R S W E R E PRESENT: CHAIRMAN MARTIN, V I C E CHAIRMAN BALDERSTON, GOVERNORS ROBERTSON AND SHEPAR D S O N . M R . S H E R M A N , S E C R E T A R Y , AND. M R . K E N Y O N , A S S I S T A N T SECRETARY, OP T H E B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S A LSO W E R E P R E S E N T 0 The m i n u t e s o f t h e j o i n t m e e t i n g a r e b e i n g p r e p a r e d i n t h e o f f i c e 0f the S e c r e t a r y o f t h e B o a r d of G o v e r n o r s of t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m * fheir c o n t e n t w i l l b e c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e n o t e s of t h e S e c r e t a r y of the Council* A s s u m i n g t h e y a r e i n s u b s t a n t i a l a g r e e m e n t * t h e y w i l l be r e produced a n d d i s t r i b u t e d to t h e m e m b e r s of t h e C o u n c i l * The m e e t i n g a d j o u r n e d at 1 : 0 0 P « M „ The n e x t m e e t i n g of t h e C o u n c i l w i l l b e h e l d o n M a y 20 *=*21, 1963