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Military Manpower Requirements and Supply 1 9 5 9 -6 3 B u lle t in UNITED ST A TE S D EPARTM ENT O F LABOR James P. M itchell, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague. Commissioner No. 1262 Military Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1959-63 Bulletin No. 1262 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR James P. Mitchell, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague, Commissioner November 1959 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. Price 15 cents Preface This bulletin presents the findings of a study of military manpower supply and requirements undertaken to provide background information pertinent to a consideration of the extension of the authority to induct men under pro visions of the Universal Military Training and Service Act. This authority, which was due to expire on June 30, 1959, was recently extended by the Con gress until June 30, 1963. Pages 1 to 7 of this bulletin were reprinted from the Monthly Labor Review for August 1959. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has made several studies of this nature; the previous edition was Bulletin 1166, Military Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1955-59. The study was undertaken at the request of the Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization. This bulletin was prepared by Stuart H. Garfinkle of the Division of Manpower and Employment Statistics. Most of the statistical estimates were prepared by the Department of Defense and were included, in summary form, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on January 26, 1959. Harold Wool and Clayton Thompson of the Depart ment of Defense were especially helpful. Contents Page 1 CO rl< «D Basic considerations______________________________________________________ Current situation_________________________________________________________ Military manpower pool, 1958-63__________________________________________ Characteristics of men in the manpower pool_________________________________ Conclusions_____________________________________________________________ Tables 1. 2. 3. Estimated military service status of men aged 19-26^ years, June 30 of 1958 and 1963____________________________________________________________ Estimated annual inflows to military manpower pool, men aged 1 8 } i - 2 5 f fiscal years 1959-63________________________________________________________ Projected military manpower pool, men aged 18^-25, fiscal years 1959-63___ 4 5 6 Chart Estimated military service status of men aged 19-26, June 30 of 1958 and 1963___ 2 Technical appendix Manpower pool, July 1, 1958_______________________________________________ Projected manpower pool,1959-63__________________________________________ Estimate of the number of fathers in the military manpower pool_______________ 8 9 10 M ilit a r y M a n p o w e r R e q u ir e m e n ts a n d e t w e e n 1959 and 1963, military manpower s u p ply will be more than adequate and no fathers will be inducted, but qualified young men attain ing age 26 in that period must count on service. Most young men graduating from high school in 1960 will have 4 or 5 years for college or busi ness before they are drafted. A recent study by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics1 discloses these and other facts of prime interest to the public, employers, personnel di rectors, and government agencies. B Basic Considerations The method of obtaining men for military serv ice has been a matter of continuing concern to the Armed Forces, to civilian agencies of Government, and to the Congress. Traditionally, except in times of war, dependence upon voluntary enlist ment has prevailed. When compulsory service became necessary, the governing principle of equity—e qual ity of obligation—administered through the Selective Service System and its local boards of responsible citizens in each community, made compulsory military service acceptable to the public. There are, however, three major ex ceptions to this general principle, among which J The Bureau of Labor S tatistics has made several studies of this nature. Of the earlier ones, the m ost recent was M ilitary Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1 955-59, supplementing M ilitary Manpower Requirements and Supply, 19 5 4 - 6 0 , BLS Bull. 116 1 ( 1 9 5 5 ). See also Monthly Labor Review, July 1955, pp. 7 8 2 - 7 8 4 . The findings in the present study, undertaken a t the request of the Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization, were based on data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Defense. E stim ating procedures are described in M ilitary Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1 9 5 9-63, forthcom ing BLS Bull. 1262. S u p p ly , 1 9 5 9 -6 3 a feasible balance must be achieved at any given time. Personal or family hardships have been ac cepted as valid reasons for excuse from military service or for a delay in commencing service. The degree of hardship recognized changes from time to time, depending on the need for and avail ability of manpower. The second exception to the principle of equity has arisen because manpower needs of the civilian economy must be balanced against those of the military. During World War II, the large Armed Forces and the enormous defense production pro gram strained manpower resources. During the Korean conflict, the need for an adequate flow of highly trained workers, both to meet the increas ingly technical requirements of the Armed Forces and the needs of the industrial economy, gave rise to a student deferment program. More re cently, special provision has been made for brief periods of active service for members of “critical occupations,” to be followed by membership in the reserves. Occupation was also considered in calling up reservists and in screening individuals from the Ready to the Standby Reserve. For these and other purposes, the U.S. Department of Labor prepared an official List of Critical Oc cupations. The third exception to the equity principle has arisen because of the varying standards for accept ability for military service. The degree of physi cal and mental fitness required of men for service has depended upon the nature of warfare as well as the availability of manpower. In recent years, the increasingly technical character of warfare has acl 2 centuated the training needs of the Armed Forces and raised the mental demands. This has been ac companied by a rise in the mental standards for service, eliminating a large proportion of the young men.2 Thus, against this general principle of equality of obligation for service have been set three excep tions—one providing excuse or deferment on the basis of family responsibilities; the second limit ing the availability of higher skilled men in the interest of the civilian economy; the third reject ing the less capable men in the population. In developing military manpower policies, it has been essential to know the probable effect of various alternatives upon our ability to meet our military manpower needs, particularly when a major change in policy is being considered. The present study was made early in 1959, primarily to ap praise the probable effects of extending the induc tion authority of the Selectiye Service System, which was scheduled to expire on June 30, 1959.8 The study examined the military manpower sit uation as of June 30,1958, and the size and char acteristics of the “military manpower pool” (the number of draft-liable men who would be eligible for induction at any given time under existing Selective Service rules and regulations). The study also examined the prospects of the military manpower pool. Estimates of the future pool were based on the assumptions that current mili tary manpower policies would remain unchanged until at least 1963, and that the size of the Armed Forces would decline from 2.6 million on June 30, 1958, to 2.5 million on June 30, 1959, and re main at that level until June 30, 1963. These * Q ualifying requirem ents were raised under provisions of P.L. 8 5 - 5 6 4 , approved July 28, 1958, and E xecutive Order 1 0 7 7 6 of the same date. An extended discussion o f problems resulting from the accept ance of men in the lower m ental groups can be found in a study by E li Ginzberg and others, The L ost D ivision s (N ew Tork, Columbia U niversity Press, 1 9 5 9 ). 8 The authority w as extended by P.L. 8 6-4, approved March 23, 1959. Estimated M ilita ry Service Status of M en A g e d 19 -2 6 , June 30 of 1958 and 1963 Thousands ------1,600 Entered Service Not Qualified Deferrable1 Fathers1 Nonfather Pool 1958 63 Age: 19 58 63 20 58 '63 21 '58 '63 •58 '63 '58 '63 '58 '63 '58 '63 22 23 24 25 26 1P h y s ic a lly f it , n o t o n to ro d s e rv ic e , a n d d e p e n d e n c y . 3 assumptions, while essential for such a study, are subject to modification as policies and circum stances change; indeed, the results of such a study as this may point to needed policy changes.4 Current Situation Before considering the current size of the mili tary manpower pool, it is necessary to review the present military manpower situation. At the present time, men are obtained for the Armed Forces both through voluntary enlistment and by induction.5 During the year ending June 30, 1958, 311,000 men voluntarily entered the Armed Forces for the first time, whereas only 127,000 were inducted. Many of those who enlisted were motivated no doubt by the knowledge that if they did not volunteer they would become subject to the draft. Although volunteers have a longer term of service, they have a choice of services and better opportunities for training. Most young men who do not volunteer for active duty are classified by the Selective Service System as I-A. They remain in this class until they are drafted, unless they are able to establish a basis for reclassification into a deferred or ex empt category. Selective Service regulations in effect on June 30, 1958, call for the following order of induction: Draft delinquents, volunteers for induction, nonfathers aged 19 to 26 (with the oldest being taken first), fathers aged 19 to 26, men over 26 years with draft liability extended, and men under 19 years. At the present time (mid-1959), most inductees are about 22 or 23 years old and have been eligible for the draft since age 18^. All of the men who are called for * In the U.S. Department of Labor’s report, M ilitary Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1 955-59, it was anticipated that the pool would increase to 1.8 million in 1959. Since then, major changes in circumstances and policies have greatly affected the size of the pool. First, the strength of the Armed Forces was reduced from 3.0 m illion to 2.6 million during the period 1955-58. This reduction, of course, tended to increase the size of the pool. Three other changes, however, more than offset the effects of the lower Armed Forces level: (1 ) The modification of Selective Service regulations in February 19 5 6 required that all nonfathers be inducted before any father could be taken and provided an effective deferral for fathers; (2 ) minor adm inistrative changes and the revision of the standards of m ental acceptability have had the effect of raising the overall rejection rate from 22 to 33 percent of the population ; and (3 ) the proportions of young men attending school have risen continuously. 8 The term “volunteers” as used in this report refers to all men who enter active duty in the Armed Forces for the first time, except those inducted by the Selective Service System. Men who volunteer for induction are considered as inductees in this study. induction receive a physical and mental exami nation which determines their acceptability for active duty. It is estimated that about one-third of the entire male population would, if examined, be rejected by the Armed Forces. Because only those men who have not volunteered are subject to induction, the physical and mental rejection rate for men examined for induction is consider ably higher than that of the whole male popula tion; currently, about half are rejected as not qualified. In addition to the rejectees, others of the men who have not volunteered do not see service be cause they become fathers by the time they are reached for induction. About 35-40 percent of all civilian men have become fathers by age 22 or 23—the age groups of men curently being in ducted. While fatherhood as such is not a reason for deferment, the current order of induction provides that they can be called only after all nonfathers are taken. Because the supply of non fathers is more than adequate to meet current needs, there is almost no chance that fathers will be inducted unless military manpower require ments increase substantially. As has been indicated, most of our military manpower comes from volunteers. Virtually all of the manpower used by the Air Force and Navy are volunteers. In the Army, on the other hand, about two out of three enlisted (nonofficer) per sonnel entering for the first time in the year ending June 30, 1958, were inductees. However, as a result of the longer term of duty of volun teers as compared with inductees and the higher reenlistment rates among volunteers, only about 30 percent of the enlisted Army personnel on active duty in June 1958 were inductees. The Armed Forces find volunteers more desirable re cruits than inductees, because the longer term of enlistment provides more adequate time for their training and their use in military assignments. An important factor which must be considered in appraising our present military manpower situation is the number of men who reenlist for duty after completing one or more enlistment terms. Reenlistment further reduces the ratio of training time to service time, and helps provide a skilled and ready Armed Force. About onefourth of the volunteers reenlist when their first term expires. This compares with a reenlistment 4 There were about 9 million men 19 to 26 years of age in mid-1958. About 4.5 million had al ready entered military service; about 2.4 million were or will be found unfit for service; 1 million were students (many of whom will enter the mil itary manpower pool when they discontinue their education); and about 700,000 were in the non father military manpower pool. Fewer than 30,000 men in the manpower pool were over 23 years of age. The projection of the military manpower pool during the next 4 years was made by balancing the number of men reaching military age in the years ahead against the future needs of the Armed Forces. Estimates of the annual addi tions to the military manpower pool are based upon the number of men reaching age 18^, less an allowance for the unfit and for the able-bodied students, virtually all of whom are deferrable (table 2 ) . In addition to the 1 8 1 4 - y e a r - o l d s , a number of students become available each year as they discontinue their education. The total addi tions to the pool will increase significantly in the next few years as the population reaching age I 814 increases sharply. The estimates of military manpower require ments between June 30, 1958, and June 30, 1963, are based on a number of assumptions regarding rate of less than 1 in 20 for inductees. Reenlist ment rates are highest among career-regulars— men who have completed more than one tour of duty. Almost 9 out of 10 such men reenlist. Military Manpower Pool, 1958-63 The military manpower supply and demand situation depends not only on the number of in ductions, volunteers, and reenlistments, but also on the number of men becoming available for military service. This study of the present and future size of the military manpower pool takes all of these factors into account in estimating the number of men who were available and eligible for induction in July 1958 and the number of men who will be so in July of each year from 1959 to 1963. The estimates of the size of the military man power pool in 1958, 1959, and subsequent years are based on the number of men in the Selective Service age group after allowing for those al ready in service, and those who would be rejected, deferred,* or exempt if reached for induction. Table 1 and the chart show the age distribution and military service status of men in the primary military ages on June 30, 1958, and on June 30, 1963. T a b l e 1. E s t im a t e d M il it a r y S e r v ic e S t a t u s of M e n A g e d 19-26 Y e a r s , J u n e 30 of 1958 and 1963 [In thousands] Age nearest birthday Date and status Total, 19-26 years 19 years 20 years 21 years 22 years 23 years 24 years 25 years 26 years June 30, 1958 Male population........................................... 9,060 1,200 1,190 1,150 1,130 1,120 1,090 1,080 1,100 Entered service 1.................................... Not qualified.......................................... Deferrable *............................................ Fathers *................................................. Nonfather pool....................................... 4,450 2,390 1,050 490 670 270 390 320 30 190 400 370 230 40 150 460 340 170 60 120 500 310 120 90 110 590 260 90 100 80 700 240 50 80 20 760 240 40 40 770 240 30 50 Male population........................................... 10,390 1.430 1,480 1,430 1,290 1,220 1,200 1,190 1,150 Entered service 1.................................... Not qualified.......................................... Deferrable 8............................................ Fathers 8................................................. Nonfather pool....................................... 3,540 3.360 1,300 840 1,350 240 470 430 20 270 310 490 310 50 320 350 470 220 90 300 400 430 130 120 210 450 400 80 130 160 550 390 50 150 60 610 370 40 140 30 630 340 40 140 (4) W June 30, 1963 1 Includes prior or present active or reserve service. * Includes a small number in exempt groups. * Includes dependency deferments. * Less than 5,000. 8 Includes a small number in exempt groups. Excludes student fathers and certain categories of students in military reserve status. (9 N ote: Because of rounding, sums of the individual items may not equal totals. Source Prepared from data of the U. S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Defense. 5 strength of the Armed Forces, reenlistment rates, and other factors. At the time this report was prepared, in early 1959, the Department of De fense assumed that the Armed Forces would de cline from 2.6 million in June 1958 to 2.5 million in June 1959 and remain at that level through June 30, 1963. Reenlistment rates—the propor tions of men who reenlist upon completion of their tours of duty—were taken into account in esti mating military manpower requirements. These rates were computed in detail, separately for each service based on recent experience, taking into ac count variables such as the effects of recently en acted pay legislation. On the basis of these data, it was estimated that about 500,000 men will be needed annually from the military manpower pool (table 3). Of these, 100.000 men will be needed to meet the require ments of the reserve forces, and about 300,000 of the Armed Forces annual requirements will come from volunteers. This leaves about 100,000 to be inducted through the Selective Service System. Characteristics of Men in the Manpower Pool Most of the volunteers entering military service between 1958 and 1963 will be young men in their teens, while the inductees will be mainly 23 or 24 years old. Almost 8 out of 10 of the volunteers entering the Armed Forces will be under 21.6 Since the number of able-bodied men reaching military age will be larger than the Armed Forces’ requirements, the manpower pool will increase from about 1 million in 1959 to about 1% million by 1963 (table 3). Even if only nonfathers are considered, the pool will increase from about a half million in July 1958 to 1% million by June 1963. Despite the sharp increase in the military man power pool, the number of available men in the upper age groups will increase only slightly. In 1963, about 60,000 nonfathers aged 24, 30,000 aged 25, and less than 5,000 aged 26 will be in the pool, compared with 20,000 aged 24 years and less than 5.000 25- and 26-year-olds in 1958. This situation is expected to occur because the oldest inductees in the age range 19-26 are taken first. Further, the number of draft-liable nonfathers, acceptable a The minimum age for enlistment is 17. T a b l e 2. E stim ated A n nual I nflow s to M ilita r y M anpow er P ool , M en A ged 18H-25, F isc a l Y e a r s 1959-63 [In thousands] Fiscal year Inflows and outflows Male population reaching age 181A 1....................................... Less: Not qualified for service. Able-bodied students and other deferred groups.. 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1,220 1,290 1,430 1,480 400 430 470 490 470 350 390 440 510 560 1,430 Net inflows from 18} 2 years old... Plus: Inflows from student de ferments expiring 3.................. 470 470 520 480 400 230 260 300 350 390 Total inflows to pool.................. 700 730 820 830 790 1 Includes men who have volunteered before reaching age 18^. 3 Excludes ROTC graduates. Source: Prepared from data of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Defense. for service, who are expected to reach these ages without having been in service is very small. There are three main reasons for this: First, a substantial number of men will have already en listed in the Armed Forces well before they reach their 24th birthday. Second, almost half of the men who have not entered the Armed Forces will have become fathers by the time they reach their 24th birthday. Third, about half of the non fathers who have not entered service are expected to be found not qualified for military service when they are reached for induction. Most of the increase in the size of the military manpower pool will be in the younger ages, as a result of the increases in the number of men who will be reaching age 19 and an assumed drop in the number and proportion of volunteers among young men between 1958 and 1963. For example, only 310,000 or about 20 percent of the 20-yearolds in 1963 will have volunteered for active duty, compared with 400,000 or about 33 percent of those men who were 20 years old in 1958. Simi larly, the assumed numbers of 21- and 22-year-olds who will have volunteered by 1963 are 350,000 and 400,000 (25 and 33 percent of the respective age groups), compared with 460,000 and 500,000 (40 and 44 percent, respectively) for the correspond ing age groups in 1958. A comparison at selected ages of men of mili tary age in 1958 and in 1963 illustrates the effects of these changes. The most obvious change among the 19-year-olds in the two periods is the increase in the size of the population from about 1,200,000 6 T a b l e 3. P r o je c t e d M il it a r y M a n p o w e r P o o l , M e n A g e d 18^-25, F is c a l Y e a r s 1959-63 [In thousands] Fiscal year Pool 1959 Pool, beginning of year.............. »1,010 1960 1961 1962 1963 1,100 1,220 1,420 1,610 710 740 830 840 800 700 10 620 730 10 620 820 10 630 830 10 650 790 10 670 520 120 310 90 100 500 80 330 90 120 500 100 310 100 130 500 90 310 100 150 500 90 310 100 170 Pool, end of year........................ 1,100 1,220 1,420 1,610 1,740 Nonfathers, aged 19-25......... Fathers, aged 19-25.............. Under age 19........................ Ages 26 and over.................. 630 300 110 60 740 300 110 70 920 300 120 80 1,100 300 120 90 4 1,240 Plus annual inflows to pool........ Ages 18H-25 and volunteers aged 1 7-18)4 3.................... Ages 26 and over.__............. Less outflows from pool_______ Men entering active or re serve service...... ............... Inductees.................. . Volunteers.................... Reserves........................ Reclassified to III-A3........... 300 100 100 1 Estimated pool as of June 30,1958. Includes 300,000 fathers and 50,000 men aged 20 and over. 3 Men volunteering before reaching age 18)4 are counted as in the military manpower pool. 3 Assumes that the number of fathers in the military manpower pool will not exceed 300,000 because of reclassification into class III-A—dependency deferments. 4 The nonfather pool in this table is smaller than that shown in table 1 because men aged 18^-19 are excluded from this figure. N ote: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Prepared from data of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Defense. to about 1,430,000. None of this increase is re flected in the number of men in the Armed Forces and there is therefore a substantial increase in the manpower pool and in the number of deferred men. An even sharper rise from 1,150,000 to 1,430,000 occurs among 21-year-old men between 1958 and 1963. A relatively sharp drop from 460,000 to 350,000 in the number of 21-year-old men who will be or will have been in service is expected to occur. This drop is expected from assumptions regarding age of enlistment and the number of men expected to enlist in the years ahead. As a result of this decline as well as the increase in the size of the age group, the number of 21-year-old men not in service will increase by almost 400,000 between 1958 and 1963. The size of the 23-year-old group is also ex pected to increase, but by only 100,000 during this period. The number of men in service in this age is expected to decline from 590,000 to 450,000. As a result, the number of men not in service will increase by about 240,000. The larger number of men in this and younger age groups not in service in 1963 will mean that more of them will probably become fathers before being reached for induction. Comparison of the 26-year-olds in 1958 and 1963 indicates that virtually no men are left in the pool in either year, but the number of deferred men (most of whom are fathers) is about 90,000 higher in 1963 and the number not qualified is 100,000 higher. Most of the increase in the number not qualified will result from the higher mental and physical standards now in effect. The increase between 1958 and 1963 in the draft-liable men who are expected to become fathers before being reached for induction is due to the larger number of men in the 26-year-old group in 1963 who will have had more years to become fathers. Conclusions The conclusions reached from the findings of this study of military manpower requirements and supply are: 1. There will be a more than adequate supply of men for military service in the next few years if it is assumed that the Armed Forces will re main at a level of abput 2y2 million. 2. Unless military manpower needs increase much more than is assumed here, virtually no fathers will be inducted in the years ahead. 3. As of now, a young man must count on serv ing if he meets the mental and physical standards, and does not become a father. Virtually no phys ically and mentally fit nonfathers who reached age 26 in 1958 escaped service. Similarly, among young men who will be 26 in 1963 (who were 21 years old in 1958), no physically and mentally fit nonfathers will escape service. 4. This study has particular significance for the young men who were 17 in 1959—most of whom will finish high school in 1960. There are-a great many wTays in which young men can satisfy their military obligation.7 Some will volunteer for active duty in one of the military services for terms of 3, 4, or more years. Others will volun teer for from 3- to 6-month periods of active duty for training and fulfill the remainder of their military obligation by participating in reserve programs. Those who do not choose to volunteer 7 These alternatives are described In detail in It’s Your Choice (U.S. Department of Defense rev., 1958). 7 will wait until they are reached for induction. By 1963, when these men will be 21 years old, 350,000 are expected to have voluntarily entered the Armed Forces. Those who have not volun teered by 1963 will probably not be inducted until after 1963, and perhaps not until 1965 when they will be 23 years old—and then only if the induc tion authority is again extended. As a result, the nonvolunteers will have at least 4 or 5 years after completing high school during which they could complete a 4-year college education without being affected by the draft. For those who do not go to college, a similar time lapse would occur during which they may choose to begin a work career. Of course, men who do not volunteer may marry and become fathers during the time lag before they are reached for induction. Because the num ber of men who have not entered service by the time they are 21 years old is expected to increase sharply between 1958 and 1963, the number of draft eligibles in this age group who will become fathers before being reached for induction will probably increase significantly. 5. Another inference which can be drawn from this study is that it will become increasingly more difficult for young men to volunteer in the service of their choice in the years ahead. According to the assumption made by the Department of De fense regarding the number and age distribution of volunteers, there will be a significant drop be tween 1959 and 1963 in the number and propor tion of men in each age who will have volunteered for active service. Since both the Air Force and Navy, who obtain nearly all of their manpower by voluntary enlistment, occasionally find them selves unable, even now, to accept all the men who volunteer in a given month, it is reasonable to expect that they will be more selective in the fu ture in regard to volunteers. In the years ahead, as it becomes more difficult to enlist in the Air Force and Navy, it is possible that the Army (which is the only military branch to use in ductees) may obtain enough volunteers so that it will not need as many inductees as has been indi cated in this article. 6. Other considerations may change the ex pected number of inductees that will be needed in the years ahead. As the larger number of young men now in their early teens approach military age, they may find the competition for entry jobs keener for inexperienced workers and may volun tarily enter the Armed Forces in greater numbers than currently anticipated. On the other hand, as these young men become more aware that their chances of seeing service are getting smaller be cause their numbers are larger, some of these who volunteer only because they expect to be inducted anyway may decide to delay vounteering. Of course, these phenomena may offset each other. 7. While the official Department of Defense figures on military manpower requirements do not go beyond 1963 and the extension of the draft beyond that year will depend on the circumstances of that time, it is interesting to estimate what would happen thereafter, with the increase in population of military age, if there were no changes in military manpower policy. I f it is assumed that the draft authority will again be extended, that current Selective Service rules and regulations will remain in effect, and that the Armed Forces strength will be continued at about 2.5 million (and it is dubious that all of these assumptions will hold true), the proportion of men who would not have been in service by the time they reach age 26 would continue to increase. The size of the population groups reaching age 26 will continue to get larger for several years after 1963, and as a result of the increase in the number of men not in service in each age group, a greater proportion would undoubtedly become fathers before being reached for induction than will be true in the 1958-63 period. It is even pos sible that some nonfathers could reach age 26 without having been in service. 8. It should be kept in mind that the estimates presented in this study are subject to a consider able margin of error. The projections were based on assumptions as to the behavior of individuals and economic conditions. These assumptions, based on past experience, appeared reasonable at the date of the study, but events may work out differently. For example, enlistment and reenlist ment rates are strongly affected by the level of prosperity and by attitudes toward military serv ice; fatherhood rates also may be affected by economic conditions as well as by the operation of the d raft; the age of induction depends to a large extent on variable factors. It seems clear that an appraisal of the military manpower pool should be repeated at regular intervals in order to take into account changes in these relationships which may occur. TECHNICAL, A P P E N D IX T his a p p e n d i x d e s c r ib e s the m eth ods of p rep a rin g e s tim a te s of the m ilita r y m an pow er p o o l and the s o u r c e s of data u sed in this study. M anpow er P o o l, July 1, 19 58 E stim a tes o f t h e m ilita r y m an pow er p o o l fo r June 30, 1958, j(table 1 ), w e re p re p a re d in the follow in g m anner: In form a tion on the t o t a l m a l e population fr o m ages 18-J- to 25 in C o n t i n e n t a l United States in 1958 w as obtained fr o m unpublished e stim a te s of the U. S. B ureau o f the C en su s. T h ese e s tim a te s w e re adjusted to allow fo r the population of the t e r r it o r ie s and to co r r e s p o n d w i t h data fr o m the S electiv e S e rv ice System and M ilita ry D ep artm en ts w h ich are tabulated by y ea r of birth . The n u m b e r s of m en i n ea ch age grou p who had en tered s e r v i c e by July 1958 w ere obtained fr o m D epartm en t o f D efen se r e c o r d s . T h ese w ere d edu cted fr o m the total population to obtain t h e numbe r who had not e n t e r e d s e r v ic e . An estim ate of t h e num ber o f m en p h y si ca lly o r m en ta lly unfit fo r s e r v ic e was dedu cted fr o m th ose a vaila b le fo r s e r v ic e . An e a r lie r study b a sed on S electiv e S e rv ice d a t a shows that in A p r il 1953 about 22 p e rce n t of the young m en who had been su b ject to p h y sica l exa m in a tion s w ere not p h y sica lly and m en ta lly a c c e p t a b le .1 In A ugust 1958, the standards of a cce p t a b ility w ere ra is e d by the C o n g re s s to p erm it the A rm e d F o r c e s to r e j e c t a substan tially la r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of m en with low A rm e d F o r c e s Q u a lifica tion T est s c o r e s than w as p e r m itted b e fo r e . T h is, along with other m in or a d m in istra tive ch a n ges, has had the e ffe c t of ra isin g the r e je c tio n rate fo r the population to about 33 p e rce n t. B eca u se m any of the old er age grou p s had a lrea d y b e e n fu lly exam ined b e fo r e the standards w ere ra is e d , the r e j e c tion ra tes w ere graduated fr o m 22 p e rce n t at age 26 to 33 p erce n t a t age 19 a n d you n ger a g e s. D epen den cy d efe rm e n ts (c la s s III-A ) w ere a ls o d edu cted fr o m the ’’ a v a ila b le’ 1 grou p. The m en in the III-A ca te g o r y in A p r il 1953* w ere aged to July 1958 to obtain the num ber of this grou p s till in the m ilita r ily lia b le age grou p. A n estim ate of new fa th ers and new h ardsh ip c a s e s who had b een c la s s ifie d as III-A was 8 m ade on the b a s is of an in c r e a s e in the III-A grou p betw een July 1957 and July 1958. A ge d istrib u tio n s of a ll the d epen den cy d e fe rm e n ts sin ce A p r il 1953 w ere b a se d , in g e n e r a l, on the age d istrib u tio n of m en who had not e n tered s e r v i c e and e stim a te d fath erh ood ra te s fo r ea ch age. A d eta iled d is c u s s io n o f m eth ods of estim atin g fa th e rs in June 1958 and the num b e r b e com in g fa th e rs in ea ch y e a r fr o m 1958 to 1963 begin s on page 10. An a llow an ce was m ade a ls o fo r m en d e fe r r e d b e ca u se they w ere e m p lo y e d in ce rta in c r it ic a l o ccu p a tio n s. E stim a te s of t h e num ber of d e f e r r a b l e students who w ere p h y sica lly and m en ta lly fit fo r m ilita r y duty w e re a lso d edu cted fr o m m en oth erw ise available i n June 1958 sin ce th ese m en p re su m a b ly w o u l d not b e a vailable fo r s e r v ic e until they d iscon tin u ed th eir education . V irtu a lly a ll s t u d e n t s who m aintain ce rta in a ca d e m ic standards and attend s ch o o l on a fu ll tim e b a s is are d e fe r r a b le . Since th ose stu dents who are fa th e rs are d e fe r ra b le u n d e r other S elective S e rv ice p o lic ie s , they w e re not d edu cted as students in this com pu tation . The num ber of d e f e r r a b l e students was d e riv e d in the fo llo w in g m anner: (1) The num ber o f e n r o l l e d m a l e stu d ents, b y sin gle y e a r s o f age, was a vailable f o r O cto b e r 1958 fr o m unpublished B ureau of the C en su s data. (2) The num ber of v etera n s e n r o l l e d in in stitu tion s o f h igh er learn in g w a s available fr o m the V etera n s A d m in istra tio n . The a g e d istrib u tio n of v e te ra n s in s ch o o l was e s tim a t ed by co n stru ctin g a ’ ’ n o rm a l” s e t o f s ch o o l e n ro llm e n t ra tes fr o m data fo r urban w h i t e m a le s , in 1940, fr o m the 1940 D ecen n ia l C en su s. T h ese ra te s a t the you n ger ages w ere re a so n a b ly co m p a ra b le in le v e l to the o v e r a ll m ale ra te s in 1958 and w ere not a ffe cte d b y the in c lu s io n of la rg e n u m bers of o ld e r v e te ra n students who attended s ch o o l under the p r o v i sion s of the v a rio u s GI b ills . By co m p a rin g that age pattern o f these ra te s with th ose o f the 1958 C en su s, a n e stim a ted n o r m a l age pattern o f nonveteran e n ro llm e n t r a t e s was obtained. The num ber o f p a r t-tim e students 1M ilitary Manpower Requirements a n d Supply, 1954-60 (BLS Bull. 1161, March 1954), p. 37. 2A special survey was made in A p r i l 1953 of Selective Service R e g i s t r a n t s which contained Selective Service classifications by s i n g l e year of age of registrants. 9 w as a ls o estim a ted fr o m 1958 C en su s data, as w a s the num ber o f m a r r ie d m en am ong fu ll tim e co lle g e students. In d eriv in g the num ber o f fa th ers who w e re students it w as a ssu m ed t h a t m a r r ie d students w ould have fa th erh ood ra te s about h alf that of the g e n e r a l popu la tion . The r e j e c t i o n rate a m o n g a ll students w a s rou ghly estim a ted at 15 p e rc e n t. Since v e r y few c o lle g e students fa il the m en ta l r e q u irem en ts te s t, and sin ce sligh tly m o r e than half o f the r e je c t e e s are r e je c te d f o r m en tal r e a s o n s , the r e je c tio n rate fo r th ese m en w as re d u ce d to a llow f o r this fa c t. P r o je c te d M anpow er P o o l, 1959-63 The es tim a te s o f t h e m ilita r y m an pow er p o o l in future y e a r s w ere com pu ted by d ed u ct ing annual ou tflow s fr o m the J u l y ‘ 1958 p o o l and adding e s t i m a t e d annual in flow s to the p o o l. O utflow s f r o m t h e m i l i t a r y m an pow er p o o l w e re p re p a r e d by the D ep artm en t o f D e fe n s e . They a re b a s e d e s s e n tia lly on e s t i m a tes o f m an pow er lo s s e s o w i n g to n o rm a l a ttrition and to the ex p ira tion o f en listm en ts and tou rs o f duty, sin ce this study a ssu m e s a s m a ll d eclin e in the siz e of the A rm e d F o r c e s fr o m 2 .6 m illio n in m i d - 1958 to 2 .5 in m id 1959, and no change betw een 1959 a n d 1963. The tota l ou tflow s fr o m the m ilita r y m an pow er p o o l a ls o in clu d es an estim a te o f the n um ber o f n o n -p r i o r - s e r v i c e m en who w ill en ter t h e reserve fo r c e s . T h e n u m ber o f m en w h ose te r m o f s e r v ic e w ill e x p ire in the y e a r s ahead is estim a ted fr o m r e c o r d s of past en listm en ts fo r ea ch o f the s e r v ic e s . Not a ll of the m en w h ose en listm en ts e x p ir e , h o w e v e r, re q u ire a re p la ce m e n t. A bout 85 to 90 of e v e r y 100 m en who com p lete th eir secon d o r h ig h er tou r of duty re e n lis t im m e d ia te ly a fter th eir te r m is o v e r . E ven am ong th ose com p letin g th eir f ir s t en listm en t, 25 to 30 p e rc e n t r e e n lis t. A m ong in d u cte e s, h o w e v e r, only 4 o r 5 out o f e v e r y 100 r e e n lis t. E s tim a te s b a sed on e x p e rie n ce and an a p p ra is a l of future d ev elop m en ts w e re m ade of future le v e ls o f th ese r a te s . In ad d ition to th ose m en who r e e n lis t im m edia tely, an allow an ce w as m ade fo r th ose m en who r e e n ter s e r v ic e a fter a s i g n i f i c a n t e l a p s e o f tim e . A n oth er estim a ted ou tflow fr o m the m an p ow er p o o l w as m ade to a llow fo r m en who are e x p ected to b e co m e fa th e r s . A n a ssu m p tion w as m a d e, in p rep a rin g th ese e s tim a te s , that the num ber o f fa th e rs in the p o o l w ould not e x c e e d 300,000 and a ll oth er dr a ft-lia b le fath er s w ould be c la s s ifie d as III-A . Inflow s to the M ilita ry M anpow er P o o l The n u m b e r o f a b le -b o d ie d m en rea ch in g age 18^ who w ill be a v a i l a b l e fo r m ilita r y s e r v ic e in the n e x t few y e a r s is b a se d upon B ureau o f the C en su s e s t i m a t e s o f m a le s rea ch in g that age le s s an allow an ce fo r th o s e who w ill not be p h y sica lly and m en ta lly a c c e p t able t o the A rm e d F o r c e s and a n a llow an ce fo r a b le -b o d ie d students who w ill be in s ch o o l when they re a ch age 18^. The in flo w s t o th e military m an pow er pool a ls o inclu d e students who d iscon tin u e th eir ed u cation , b e ca u se m o s t b e co m e lia b le fo r the d ra ft when they d ro p out o f s c h o o l o r grad u ate. The e s tim a te s of the num ber o f students who are e lig ib le fo r the d ra ft but who are d e fe r r e d a n d t h e nu m ber who b e co m e a vaila b le ea ch y e a r w e re com pu ted as fo llo w s . The p r o p o r t i o n o f m a l e s in ea ch age grou p who w e re e n ro lle d as fu ll-tim e n on vet era n students in O ctober 1958 is d escrib ed on page 8 , T h ese p ro p o rtio n s w e re p r o je c te d to 1963 using the ris in g tren d s in d ica ted in t h e e n ro llm e n t ra te s fo r m en fo r the p e r io d 194758. T able 5 show s the a ssu m ed p ro p o rtio n s o f the m a le population d e fe r r a b le as students during the future p e rio d 195 9-63 . A n e stim a te o f the num ber o f students d e fe r r a b le i n ea ch y e a r fr o m 1959-63 w as obtain ed b y applying t h e p r o je c te d ra te s to t h e future population e s tim a te s . The num ber o f students b e co m in g a v a i l a b l e ea ch y e a r b y discon tin u in g th eir ed u cation w as obtained as the sum o f d if fe r e n ce s betw een the n um ber e n ro lle d i n d ra ftl i a b l e a ges i n one y e a r and the n u m b e r e n r o l l e d in the next o l d e r a g e s i n t h e next y e a r . T able 50 P r o je c te d p ro p o rtio n s of m a le popu lation 1 8-25 y e a r s o f age e lig ib le fo r d e fe rm e n t as students, 1959-63 A ge 1 8 ............ 1 9 ............ 2 0 ............ 2 1 ............ 2 2 ............ 2 3 ............ 2 4 ............ 2 5 ............ XI the C en su s. 1959 i 960 1961 1962 1963 42. 8 24. 0 1 7.9 13. 8 9. 0 5. 5 3 .4 2. 6 45. 8 2 5 .6 4 8 .9 27. 3 20. 2 1 5 .4 10. 1 6. 1 3 .7 2. 8 5 1 .9 2 8 .9 2 1 .4 16. 3 10. 6 6. 4 3 .9 5 3 .8 30. 5 2 2 .4 1 7.2 11. 1 6 .7 4 .0 2 .9 1 9 .0 14. 6 9 .6 5 .8 3 .6 2 .7 'J 2 .8 4. 10 E stim a tes o f the N um ber o f F a th ers in the M ilita r y Manp ow er P o o l Since n onfather i n d u c t e e s a re ca lle d up fo r a ctive duty b e fo r e fa th ers it w as n e c e s s a r y to b rea k down the m an pow er p o o l a ccord in g ly . Men in the S e le ctiv e S e r v ic e a g es who a re not fa th ers r e p r e s e n t the la r g e s t sin gle s o u rce of m ilita r y m a n p ow er. No d ir e c t data a re a v a il, able on the n u m bers o f fa th ers in the p opu la tion b y d etailed a g e s . F o r this r e a s o n , e s t i_,/ m a tes w ere m ade o f the num ber o f fa th ers in the m i l i t a r y m a n pow er p o o l . D a t a Irorp. S e le ctiv e S e r v ic e r e c o r d s a re a va ila b le on the n u m ber o f fa th ers in the I_A c la s s ific a t io n , but th ese data a r e p ro b a b ly u n derstated b eca u se o f the la rg e num ber o f u n c la s s ifie d m en and the n orm a l l a g in r e c la s s ific a t io n fo r status ch a n g es. Data fr o m t h e B u r e a u o f t h e C en su s' C u rren t P o p u l a t i o n S u rvey a n d fr o m t h e N ational O ffice o f V ita l S ta tis tics w e re u s e d to obtain m a rr ia g e ra te s fo r the c iv ilia n popu la tion fo r b o t h m en and w om en . E stim a tes a ls o w ere m ade fr o m the C u rren t P op u lation S u rv eys and V ita l data o f the p e rc e n t o f m a r . r i e d w om en at ea ch age who w ere m o th e r s . B y rela tin g data on age o f husbands to age o f w iv e s and to the p r o p o rtio n o f w iv e s a t ea ch age who a re m o th e r s , it w as p o s s ib le to e s t i m ate the p ro p o rtio n s o f m en at ea ch age who a re fa th e r s . To estim a te t h e p ro p o rtio n o f n on fath ers in ea ch age who w ill b e co m e fa th e rs b e fo r e rea ch in g t h e next o ld e r a g e, t h e in c r e a s e fr o m age to age in the p e r c e n t o f a ll civ ilia n m a le s who are fa th ers w as rela te d to the p ro p o rtio n o f m en who w ere n on fath ers in co r re s p o n d in g a g e s . The follow in g tabulation show s the m ethod o f estim a tin g the p e r c e n t o f m en who a re fa th ers at ea ch age and the p r o p o rtio n s o f n on fath ers who b e co m e fa th ers in ea ch y ea r o f a ge. The fa th erh ood ra te s d e riv e d i n the m an- ner d e s c r ib e d above w ere u sed to estim a te the Age (i) 1 8 .............................. 1 9 .............................. 2 0 .............................. 2 1 .............................. 2 2 .............................. 2 3 .............................. 2 4 .............................. 2 5 .............................. Percent of male civilian population married (2) Median age of wife corresponding with age of husband (3) 5 12 22 39 51 61 68 73 17.9 18. 5 1 8.9 1 9.7 20. 3 2 0 .7 2 1 .2 2 1 .7 num ber o f fa th e rs am ong oth e rw ise d ra ft-lia b le m en in June 1958 a n d the n u m ber b e co m in g fa th e rs in ea ch y e a r . B eca u se the ch a n ges o f b e co m in g a fath er p r io r t o en terin g m ilita r y s e r v ic e depend on how long m en re m a in in the m ilita r y m an pow er p o o l b e fo r e they en ter the A rm e d F o r c e s , i t w a s n e c e s s a r y to r e c o n s t r u c t fo r p a st p e r io d s and to e stim a te fo r future p e r io d s , the actu al e x p e rie n ce o f ea ch age group in r e g a r d to the tim e o f e n try into the A rm e d F o r c e s . In o r d e r to do t h i s , a d istrib u tio n w as obtained fr o m the B ureau o f t h e C en su s fo r ea ch y e a r fr o m July 1956 t o July 1963 o f the m a le popu lation in the S e le c tive S e r v ic e a ges b y sin gle y e a r s o f a ge. M en who en te re d upon m ilita r y duty w e re deducted fr o m ea ch age grou p in the y e a r in w hich they e n te re d s e r v ic e . D ed u ction s w ere a ls o m ade fr o m these population e s tim a te s to a llow f o r the s m a l l p r o p o rtio n o f the m ale popu lation who a re r e je c te d fo r m ilita r y s e r v ic e b y the lo c a l d ra ft b o a rd s im m e d ia te ly a fte r they r e g is te r at age 18|, and the sm a ll p r o p o r tio n o f ea ch group w h ich , it was a ssu m e d , w ill gain exem p t status. An a llow an ce w as a ls o m ade fo r the r e je c t io n s 3 in t h e popu lation w h o, ac co rd in g to the n o rm a l S e le ctiv e S e r v ic e p r o c e d u r e , do not get exa m in ed until the la s t y ea r o r two b e fo r e m o s t o f the m en in th eir age group a re re a ch e d fo r indu ction . E s t i m a t e s o f t h e n um ber o f f a t h e r s am ong those rem ain in g m en who w e re n o t!a l low ed fo r in these com pu ta tion s w ere m ade by applying the fa th erh ood ra te s d e s c r ib e d e a r l ie r . E stim a tes o f the num ber o f m en b e c o m ing fa th e rs in ea ch age in ea ch y e a r w e re o b tained b y applying a p p rop ria te fa th erh ood ra te s fo r t h e nonfather civ ilia n popu lation in ea ch age group who w e re n o t i n s e r v ic e and who w ere not unfit fo r s e r v ic e as they p a s s e d fr o m one age to the next o ld e r a ge. - „ ^ , 0 rejection rate is discussed on page 8 . Percent of wives who are mothers at ages shown in column 3 (4) 44 48 52 56 59 62 67 70 Percent of men who are fa the r s (2) x (4) (5) 2 6 11 22 30 38 46 52 Percent Of non fathers becoming fathers during the jea r 2 4 5 12 10 11 13 11 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1959 O -532366
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