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Military
Manpower
Requirements
and
Supply
1 9 5 9 -6 3

B u lle t in

UNITED ST A TE S D EPARTM ENT O F LABOR
James P. M itchell, Secretary
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Ewan Clague. Commissioner



No. 1262




Military Manpower Requirements
and Supply, 1959-63

Bulletin No. 1262
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
James P. Mitchell, Secretary
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Ewan Clague, Commissioner
November 1959
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C.




Price 15 cents




Preface
This bulletin presents the findings of a study of military manpower supply
and requirements undertaken to provide background information pertinent
to a consideration of the extension of the authority to induct men under pro­
visions of the Universal Military Training and Service Act. This authority,
which was due to expire on June 30, 1959, was recently extended by the Con­
gress until June 30, 1963. Pages 1 to 7 of this bulletin were reprinted from
the Monthly Labor Review for August 1959.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has made several studies of this nature; the
previous edition was Bulletin 1166, Military Manpower Requirements and
Supply, 1955-59.
The study was undertaken at the request of the Office of Civil and Defense
Mobilization. This bulletin was prepared by Stuart H. Garfinkle of the
Division of Manpower and Employment Statistics. Most of the statistical
estimates were prepared by the Department of Defense and were included,
in summary form, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee
on January 26, 1959. Harold Wool and Clayton Thompson of the Depart­
ment of Defense were especially helpful.




Contents
Page

1
CO rl<
«D

Basic considerations______________________________________________________
Current situation_________________________________________________________
Military manpower pool, 1958-63__________________________________________
Characteristics of men in the manpower pool_________________________________
Conclusions_____________________________________________________________
Tables
1.
2.
3.

Estimated military service status of men aged 19-26^ years, June 30 of 1958
and 1963____________________________________________________________
Estimated annual inflows to military manpower pool, men aged 1 8 } i - 2 5 f fiscal
years 1959-63________________________________________________________
Projected military manpower pool, men aged 18^-25, fiscal years 1959-63___

4
5
6

Chart
Estimated military service status of men aged 19-26, June 30 of 1958 and 1963___

2

Technical appendix
Manpower pool, July 1, 1958_______________________________________________
Projected manpower pool,1959-63__________________________________________
Estimate of the number of fathers in the military manpower pool_______________

8
9
10




M ilit a r y M a n p o w e r R e q u ir e m e n ts a n d

e t w e e n 1959 and 1963, military manpower s u p ­
ply will be more than adequate and no fathers
will be inducted, but qualified young men attain­
ing age 26 in that period must count on service.
Most young men graduating from high school in
1960 will have 4 or 5 years for college or busi­
ness before they are drafted. A recent study by
the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor
Statistics1 discloses these and other facts of prime
interest to the public, employers, personnel di­
rectors, and government agencies.

B

Basic Considerations

The method of obtaining men for military serv­
ice has been a matter of continuing concern to the
Armed Forces, to civilian agencies of Government,
and to the Congress. Traditionally, except in
times of war, dependence upon voluntary enlist­
ment has prevailed. When compulsory service
became necessary, the governing principle of
equity—e qual ity of obligation—administered
through the Selective Service System and its local
boards of responsible citizens in each community,
made compulsory military service acceptable to
the public. There are, however, three major ex­
ceptions to this general principle, among which
J The Bureau of Labor S tatistics has made several studies of
this nature. Of the earlier ones, the m ost recent was M ilitary
Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1 955-59, supplementing
M ilitary Manpower Requirements and Supply, 19 5 4 - 6 0 , BLS
Bull. 116 1 ( 1 9 5 5 ). See also Monthly Labor Review, July 1955,
pp. 7 8 2 - 7 8 4 .
The findings in the present study, undertaken a t the request
of the Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization, were based on data
from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department
of Defense. E stim ating procedures are described in M ilitary
Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1 9 5 9-63, forthcom ing BLS
Bull. 1262.




S u p p ly , 1 9 5 9 -6 3

a feasible balance must be achieved at any given
time.
Personal or family hardships have been ac­
cepted as valid reasons for excuse from military
service or for a delay in commencing service.
The degree of hardship recognized changes from
time to time, depending on the need for and avail­
ability of manpower.
The second exception to the principle of equity
has arisen because manpower needs of the civilian
economy must be balanced against those of the
military. During World War II, the large Armed
Forces and the enormous defense production pro­
gram strained manpower resources. During the
Korean conflict, the need for an adequate flow of
highly trained workers, both to meet the increas­
ingly technical requirements of the Armed Forces
and the needs of the industrial economy, gave
rise to a student deferment program. More re­
cently, special provision has been made for brief
periods of active service for members of “critical
occupations,” to be followed by membership in
the reserves. Occupation was also considered in
calling up reservists and in screening individuals
from the Ready to the Standby Reserve. For
these and other purposes, the U.S. Department
of Labor prepared an official List of Critical Oc­
cupations.
The third exception to the equity principle has
arisen because of the varying standards for accept­
ability for military service. The degree of physi­
cal and mental fitness required of men for service
has depended upon the nature of warfare as well as
the availability of manpower. In recent years, the
increasingly technical character of warfare has acl

2

centuated the training needs of the Armed Forces
and raised the mental demands. This has been ac­
companied by a rise in the mental standards for
service, eliminating a large proportion of the
young men.2
Thus, against this general principle of equality
of obligation for service have been set three excep­
tions—one providing excuse or deferment on the
basis of family responsibilities; the second limit­
ing the availability of higher skilled men in the
interest of the civilian economy; the third reject­
ing the less capable men in the population. In
developing military manpower policies, it has been
essential to know the probable effect of various
alternatives upon our ability to meet our military
manpower needs, particularly when a major

change in policy is being considered. The present
study was made early in 1959, primarily to ap­
praise the probable effects of extending the induc­
tion authority of the Selectiye Service System,
which was scheduled to expire on June 30, 1959.8
The study examined the military manpower sit­
uation as of June 30,1958, and the size and char­
acteristics of the “military manpower pool” (the
number of draft-liable men who would be eligible
for induction at any given time under existing
Selective Service rules and regulations). The
study also examined the prospects of the military
manpower pool. Estimates of the future pool
were based on the assumptions that current mili­
tary manpower policies would remain unchanged
until at least 1963, and that the size of the Armed
Forces would decline from 2.6 million on June
30, 1958, to 2.5 million on June 30, 1959, and re­
main at that level until June 30, 1963. These

* Q ualifying requirem ents were raised under provisions of P.L.
8 5 - 5 6 4 , approved July 28, 1958, and E xecutive Order 1 0 7 7 6 of
the same date.
An extended discussion o f problems resulting from the accept­
ance of men in the lower m ental groups can be found in a study
by E li Ginzberg and others, The L ost D ivision s (N ew Tork,
Columbia U niversity Press, 1 9 5 9 ).

8 The authority w as extended by P.L. 8 6-4, approved March
23, 1959.

Estimated M ilita ry Service Status of M en A g e d 19 -2 6 , June 30 of 1958 and 1963
Thousands
------1,600

Entered
Service

Not
Qualified

Deferrable1
Fathers1
Nonfather
Pool

1958 63
Age:




19

58 63
20

58 '63
21

'58 '63

• 8 '63
5

'58 '63

'58 '63

'58 '63

22

23

24

25

26

1P h y s ic a lly

f it , n o t o n to ro d s e rv ic e , a n d d e p e n d e n c y .

3
assumptions, while essential for such a study, are
subject to modification as policies and circum­
stances change; indeed, the results of such a study
as this may point to needed policy changes.4
Current Situation

Before considering the current size of the mili­
tary manpower pool, it is necessary to review the
present military manpower situation. At the
present time, men are obtained for the Armed
Forces both through voluntary enlistment and by
induction.5 During the year ending June 30,
1958, 311,000 men voluntarily entered the Armed
Forces for the first time, whereas only 127,000
were inducted. Many of those who enlisted were
motivated no doubt by the knowledge that if they
did not volunteer they would become subject to
the draft. Although volunteers have a longer
term of service, they have a choice of services and
better opportunities for training.
Most young men who do not volunteer for
active duty are classified by the Selective Service
System as I-A. They remain in this class until
they are drafted, unless they are able to establish
a basis for reclassification into a deferred or ex­
empt category. Selective Service regulations in
effect on June 30, 1958, call for the following
order of induction: Draft delinquents, volunteers
for induction, nonfathers aged 19 to 26 (with the
oldest being taken first), fathers aged 19 to 26,
men over 26 years with draft liability extended,
and men under 19 years. At the present time
(mid-1959), most inductees are about 22 or 23
years old and have been eligible for the draft
since age 18^. All of the men who are called for
* In the U.S. Department of Labor’s report, M ilitary Manpower
Requirements and Supply, 1 955-59, it was anticipated that the
pool would increase to 1.8 million in 1959. Since then, major
changes in circumstances and policies have greatly affected the
size of the pool. First, the strength of the Armed Forces was
reduced from 3.0 m illion to 2.6 million during the period 1955-58.
This reduction, of course, tended to increase the size of the pool.
Three other changes, however, more than offset the effects of
the lower Armed Forces level: (1 ) The modification of Selective
Service regulations in February 19 5 6 required that all nonfathers
be inducted before any father could be taken and provided an
effective deferral for fathers; (2 ) minor adm inistrative changes
and the revision of the standards of m ental acceptability have
had the effect of raising the overall rejection rate from 22 to
33 percent of the population ; and (3 ) the proportions of young
men attending school have risen continuously.
8 The term “volunteers” as used in this report refers to all
men who enter active duty in the Armed Forces for the first time,
except those inducted by the Selective Service System. Men who
volunteer for induction are considered as inductees in this study.




induction receive a physical and mental exami­
nation which determines their acceptability for
active duty. It is estimated that about one-third
of the entire male population would, if examined,
be rejected by the Armed Forces. Because only
those men who have not volunteered are subject
to induction, the physical and mental rejection
rate for men examined for induction is consider­
ably higher than that of the whole male popula­
tion; currently, about half are rejected as not
qualified.
In addition to the rejectees, others of the men
who have not volunteered do not see service be­
cause they become fathers by the time they are
reached for induction. About 35-40 percent of
all civilian men have become fathers by age 22 or
23—the age groups of men curently being in­
ducted. While fatherhood as such is not a reason
for deferment, the current order of induction
provides that they can be called only after all
nonfathers are taken. Because the supply of non­
fathers is more than adequate to meet current
needs, there is almost no chance that fathers will
be inducted unless military manpower require­
ments increase substantially.
As has been indicated, most of our military
manpower comes from volunteers. Virtually all
of the manpower used by the Air Force and Navy
are volunteers. In the Army, on the other hand,
about two out of three enlisted (nonofficer) per­
sonnel entering for the first time in the year
ending June 30, 1958, were inductees. However,
as a result of the longer term of duty of volun­
teers as compared with inductees and the higher
reenlistment rates among volunteers, only about
30 percent of the enlisted Army personnel on
active duty in June 1958 were inductees. The
Armed Forces find volunteers more desirable re­
cruits than inductees, because the longer term of
enlistment provides more adequate time for their
training and their use in military assignments.
An important factor which must be considered
in appraising our present military manpower
situation is the number of men who reenlist for
duty after completing one or more enlistment
terms. Reenlistment further reduces the ratio of
training time to service time, and helps provide
a skilled and ready Armed Force. About onefourth of the volunteers reenlist when their first
term expires. This compares with a reenlistment

4

There were about 9 million men 19 to 26 years
of age in mid-1958. About 4.5 million had al­
ready entered military service; about 2.4 million
were or will be found unfit for service; 1 million
were students (many of whom will enter the mil­
itary manpower pool when they discontinue their
education); and about 700,000 were in the non­
father military manpower pool. Fewer than 30,000 men in the manpower pool were over 23 years
of age.
The projection of the military manpower pool
during the next 4 years was made by balancing
the number of men reaching military age in the
years ahead against the future needs of the
Armed Forces. Estimates of the annual addi­
tions to the military manpower pool are based
upon the number of men reaching age 18^, less
an allowance for the unfit and for the able-bodied
students, virtually all of whom are deferrable
(table 2 ) . In addition to the 1 8 1 4 - y e a r - o l d s , a
number of students become available each year as
they discontinue their education. The total addi­
tions to the pool will increase significantly in the
next few years as the population reaching age
I 814 increases sharply.
The estimates of military manpower require­
ments between June 30, 1958, and June 30, 1963,
are based on a number of assumptions regarding

rate of less than 1 in 20 for inductees. Reenlist­
ment rates are highest among career-regulars—
men who have completed more than one tour of
duty. Almost 9 out of 10 such men reenlist.
Military Manpower Pool, 1958-63
The military manpower supply and demand
situation depends not only on the number of in­
ductions, volunteers, and reenlistments, but also
on the number of men becoming available for
military service. This study of the present and
future size of the military manpower pool takes
all of these factors into account in estimating the
number of men who were available and eligible
for induction in July 1958 and the number of
men who will be so in July of each year from
1959 to 1963.
The estimates of the size of the military man­
power pool in 1958, 1959, and subsequent years
are based on the number of men in the Selective
Service age group after allowing for those al­
ready in service, and those who would be rejected,
deferred,* or exempt if reached for induction.
Table 1 and the chart show the age distribution
and military service status of men in the primary
military ages on June 30, 1958, and on June 30,
1963.
T a b l e 1.

E s t im a t e d M il it a r y S e r v ic e S t a t u s

of

M e n A g e d 19-26 Y e a r s , J u n e 30

of

1958

and

1963

[In thousands]
Age nearest birthday
Date and status

Total,
19-26
years

19
years

20
years

21
years

22
years

23
years

24
years

25
years

26
years

June 30, 1958
Male population...........................................

9,060

1,200

1,190

1,150

1,130

1,120

1,090

1,080

1,100

Entered service 1....................................
Not qualified..........................................
Deferrable *............................................
Fathers *.................................................
Nonfather pool.......................................

4,450
2,390
1,050
490
670

270
390
320
30
190

400
370
230
40
150

460
340
170
60
120

500
310
120
90
110

590
260
90
100
80

700
240
50
80
20

760
240
40
40

770
240
30
50

Male population...........................................

10,390

1.430

1,480

1,430

1,290

1,220

1,200

1,190

1,150

Entered service 1....................................
Not qualified..........................................
Deferrable 8............................................
Fathers 8.................................................
Nonfather pool.......................................

3,540
3.360
1,300
840
1,350

240
470
430
20
270

310
490
310
50
320

350
470
220
90
300

400
430
130
120
210

450
400
80
130
160

550
390
50
150
60

610
370
40
140
30

630
340
40
140

(4)

W

June 30, 1963

1 Includes prior or present active or reserve service.
* Includes a small number in exempt groups.
* Includes dependency deferments.
* Less than 5,000.
8 Includes a small number in exempt groups. Excludes student fathers
and certain categories of students in military reserve status.




(9

N ote: Because of rounding, sums of the individual items may not equal
totals.
Source Prepared from data of the U. S. Bureau of the Census and the
U.S. Department of Defense.

5

strength of the Armed Forces, reenlistment rates,
and other factors. At the time this report was
prepared, in early 1959, the Department of De­
fense assumed that the Armed Forces would de­
cline from 2.6 million in June 1958 to 2.5 million
in June 1959 and remain at that level through
June 30, 1963. Reenlistment rates—the propor­
tions of men who reenlist upon completion of their
tours of duty—were taken into account in esti­
mating military manpower requirements. These
rates were computed in detail, separately for each
service based on recent experience, taking into ac­
count variables such as the effects of recently en­
acted pay legislation.

On the basis of these data, it was estimated that
about 500,000 men will be needed annually from
the military manpower pool (table 3). Of these,
100.000 men will be needed to meet the require­
ments of the reserve forces, and about 300,000 of
the Armed Forces annual requirements will come
from volunteers. This leaves about 100,000 to be
inducted through the Selective Service System.
Characteristics of Men in the Manpower Pool
Most of the volunteers entering military service
between 1958 and 1963 will be young men in their
teens, while the inductees will be mainly 23 or 24
years old. Almost 8 out of 10 of the volunteers
entering the Armed Forces will be under 21.6
Since the number of able-bodied men reaching
military age will be larger than the Armed Forces’
requirements, the manpower pool will increase
from about 1 million in 1959 to about 1% million
by 1963 (table 3). Even if only nonfathers are
considered, the pool will increase from about a
half million in July 1958 to 1% million by June
1963.
Despite the sharp increase in the military man­
power pool, the number of available men in the
upper age groups will increase only slightly. In
1963, about 60,000 nonfathers aged 24, 30,000 aged
25, and less than 5,000 aged 26 will be in the pool,
compared with 20,000 aged 24 years and less than
5.000 25- and 26-year-olds in 1958. This situation
is expected to occur because the oldest inductees
in the age range 19-26 are taken first. Further,
the number of draft-liable nonfathers, acceptable
a The minimum age for enlistment is 17.




T a b l e 2. E stim ated A n nual I nflow s to M ilita r y
M anpow er P ool , M en A ged 18H-25, F isc a l Y e a r s
1959-63
[In thousands]

Fiscal year

Inflows and outflows
1959
Male population reaching age
181 1.......................................
A
Less:
Not qualified for service.
Able-bodied students and
other deferred groups..

1960

1961

1962

1963

1,220

1,290

1,430

1,480

400

430

470

490

470

350

390

440

510

560

1,430

Net inflows from 18} 2 years old...
Plus: Inflows from student de­
ferments expiring 3..................

470

470

520

480

400

230

260

300

350

390

Total inflows to pool..................

700

730

820

830

790

1 Includes men who have volunteered before reaching age 18^.
3 Excludes ROTC graduates.
Source: Prepared from data of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the
U.S. Department of Defense.

for service, who are expected to reach these ages
without having been in service is very small.
There are three main reasons for this: First, a
substantial number of men will have already en­
listed in the Armed Forces well before they reach
their 24th birthday. Second, almost half of the
men who have not entered the Armed Forces will
have become fathers by the time they reach their
24th birthday. Third, about half of the non­
fathers who have not entered service are expected
to be found not qualified for military service when
they are reached for induction.
Most of the increase in the size of the military
manpower pool will be in the younger ages, as a
result of the increases in the number of men who
will be reaching age 19 and an assumed drop in
the number and proportion of volunteers among
young men between 1958 and 1963. For example,
only 310,000 or about 20 percent of the 20-yearolds in 1963 will have volunteered for active duty,
compared with 400,000 or about 33 percent of
those men who were 20 years old in 1958. Simi­
larly, the assumed numbers of 21- and 22-year-olds
who will have volunteered by 1963 are 350,000 and
400,000 (25 and 33 percent of the respective age
groups), compared with 460,000 and 500,000 (40
and 44 percent, respectively) for the correspond­
ing age groups in 1958.
A comparison at selected ages of men of mili­
tary age in 1958 and in 1963 illustrates the effects
of these changes. The most obvious change among
the 19-year-olds in the two periods is the increase
in the size of the population from about 1,200,000

6
T a b l e 3.

P r o je c t e d M il it a r y M a n p o w e r P o o l , M e n
A g e d 18^-25, F is c a l Y e a r s 1959-63
[In thousands]
Fiscal year

Pool
1959
Pool, beginning of year.............. »1,010

1960

1961

1962

1963

1,100

1,220

1,420

1,610

710

740

830

840

800

700
10
620

730
10
620

820
10
630

830
10
650

790
10
670

520
120
310
90
100

500
80
330
90
120

500
100
310
100
130

500
90
310
100
150

500
90
310
100
170

Pool, end of year........................

1,100

1,220

1,420

1,610

1,740

Nonfathers, aged 19-25.........
Fathers, aged 19-25..............
Under age 19........................
Ages 26 and over..................

630
300
110
60

740
300
110
70

920
300
120
80

1,100
300
120
90

4 1,240

Plus annual inflows to pool........
Ages 18H-25 and volunteers
aged 1 7-18)4 3....................
Ages 26 and over.__.............
Less outflows from pool_______
Men entering active or re­
serve service...... ...............
Inductees.................. .
Volunteers....................
Reserves........................
Reclassified to III-A3...........

300
100
100

1 Estimated pool as of June 30,1958. Includes 300,000 fathers and 50,000 men
aged 20 and over.
3 Men volunteering before reaching age 18)4 are counted as in the military
manpower pool.
3 Assumes that the number of fathers in the military manpower pool will
not exceed 300,000 because of reclassification into class III-A—dependency
deferments.
4 The nonfather pool in this table is smaller than that shown in table 1
because men aged 18^-19 are excluded from this figure.
N ote: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.
Source: Prepared from data of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the
U.S. Department of Defense.

to about 1,430,000. None of this increase is re­
flected in the number of men in the Armed Forces
and there is therefore a substantial increase in the
manpower pool and in the number of deferred
men.
An even sharper rise from 1,150,000 to 1,430,000
occurs among 21-year-old men between 1958 and
1963. A relatively sharp drop from 460,000 to
350,000 in the number of 21-year-old men who
will be or will have been in service is expected to
occur. This drop is expected from assumptions
regarding age of enlistment and the number of
men expected to enlist in the years ahead. As a
result of this decline as well as the increase in the
size of the age group, the number of 21-year-old
men not in service will increase by almost 400,000
between 1958 and 1963.
The size of the 23-year-old group is also ex­
pected to increase, but by only 100,000 during this
period. The number of men in service in this age
is expected to decline from 590,000 to 450,000. As
a result, the number of men not in service will
increase by about 240,000. The larger number of
men in this and younger age groups not in service




in 1963 will mean that more of them will probably
become fathers before being reached for induction.
Comparison of the 26-year-olds in 1958 and 1963
indicates that virtually no men are left in the pool
in either year, but the number of deferred men
(most of whom are fathers) is about 90,000 higher
in 1963 and the number not qualified is 100,000
higher. Most of the increase in the number not
qualified will result from the higher mental and
physical standards now in effect. The increase
between 1958 and 1963 in the draft-liable men
who are expected to become fathers before being
reached for induction is due to the larger number
of men in the 26-year-old group in 1963 who will
have had more years to become fathers.
Conclusions
The conclusions reached from the findings of
this study of military manpower requirements
and supply are:
1. There will be a more than adequate supply
of men for military service in the next few years
if it is assumed that the Armed Forces will re­
main at a level of abput 2y2 million.
2. Unless military manpower needs increase
much more than is assumed here, virtually no
fathers will be inducted in the years ahead.
3. As of now, a young man must count on serv­
ing if he meets the mental and physical standards,
and does not become a father. Virtually no phys­
ically and mentally fit nonfathers who reached age
26 in 1958 escaped service. Similarly, among
young men who will be 26 in 1963 (who were 21
years old in 1958), no physically and mentally fit
nonfathers will escape service.
4. This study has particular significance for the
young men who were 17 in 1959—most of whom
will finish high school in 1960. There are-a great
many ways in which young men can satisfy their
T
military obligation.7 Some will volunteer for
active duty in one of the military services for
terms of 3, 4, or more years. Others will volun­
teer for from 3- to 6-month periods of active duty
for training and fulfill the remainder of their
military obligation by participating in reserve
programs. Those who do not choose to volunteer
7 These alternatives are described In detail in It’ Your Choice
s
(U.S. Department of Defense rev., 1958).

7
will wait until they are reached for induction.
By 1963, when these men will be 21 years old,
350,000 are expected to have voluntarily entered
the Armed Forces. Those who have not volun­
teered by 1963 will probably not be inducted until
after 1963, and perhaps not until 1965 when they
will be 23 years old—and then only if the induc­
tion authority is again extended. As a result, the
nonvolunteers will have at least 4 or 5 years after
completing high school during which they could
complete a 4-year college education without being
affected by the draft. For those who do not go to
college, a similar time lapse would occur during
which they may choose to begin a work career.
Of course, men who do not volunteer may marry
and become fathers during the time lag before
they are reached for induction. Because the num­
ber of men who have not entered service by the
time they are 21 years old is expected to increase
sharply between 1958 and 1963, the number of
draft eligibles in this age group who will become
fathers before being reached for induction will
probably increase significantly.
5. Another inference which can be drawn from
this study is that it will become increasingly more
difficult for young men to volunteer in the service
of their choice in the years ahead. According to
the assumption made by the Department of De­
fense regarding the number and age distribution
of volunteers, there will be a significant drop be­
tween 1959 and 1963 in the number and propor­
tion of men in each age who will have volunteered
for active service. Since both the Air Force and
Navy, who obtain nearly all of their manpower
by voluntary enlistment, occasionally find them­
selves unable, even now, to accept all the men who
volunteer in a given month, it is reasonable to
expect that they will be more selective in the fu­
ture in regard to volunteers. In the years ahead,
as it becomes more difficult to enlist in the Air
Force and Navy, it is possible that the Army
(which is the only military branch to use in­
ductees) may obtain enough volunteers so that it
will not need as many inductees as has been indi­
cated in this article.
6. Other considerations may change the ex­
pected number of inductees that will be needed in
the years ahead. As the larger number of young
men now in their early teens approach military
age, they may find the competition for entry jobs
keener for inexperienced workers and may volun­




tarily enter the Armed Forces in greater numbers
than currently anticipated. On the other hand,
as these young men become more aware that their
chances of seeing service are getting smaller be­
cause their numbers are larger, some of these who
volunteer only because they expect to be inducted
anyway may decide to delay vounteering. Of
course, these phenomena may offset each other.
7. While the official Department of Defense
figures on military manpower requirements do not
go beyond 1963 and the extension of the draft
beyond that year will depend on the circumstances
of that time, it is interesting to estimate what
would happen thereafter, with the increase in
population of military age, if there were no
changes in military manpower policy. I f it is
assumed that the draft authority will again be
extended, that current Selective Service rules and
regulations will remain in effect, and that the
Armed Forces strength will be continued at about
2.5 million (and it is dubious that all of these
assumptions will hold true), the proportion of
men who would not have been in service by the
time they reach age 26 would continue to increase.
The size of the population groups reaching age
26 will continue to get larger for several years
after 1963, and as a result of the increase in the
number of men not in service in each age group,
a greater proportion would undoubtedly become
fathers before being reached for induction than
will be true in the 1958-63 period. It is even pos­
sible that some nonfathers could reach age 26
without having been in service.
8. It should be kept in mind that the estimates
presented in this study are subject to a consider­
able margin of error. The projections were based
on assumptions as to the behavior of individuals
and economic conditions. These assumptions,
based on past experience, appeared reasonable at
the date of the study, but events may work out
differently. For example, enlistment and reenlist­
ment rates are strongly affected by the level of
prosperity and by attitudes toward military serv­
ice; fatherhood rates also may be affected by
economic conditions as well as by the operation of
the d raft; the age of induction depends to a large
extent on variable factors. It seems clear that an
appraisal of the military manpower pool should
be repeated at regular intervals in order to take
into account changes in these relationships which
may occur.

TECHNICAL, A P P E N D IX
T his a p p e n d i x d e s c r ib e s the m eth ods of
p rep a rin g e s tim a te s of the m ilita r y m an pow er
p o o l and the s o u r c e s of data u sed in this study.
M anpow er P o o l,

July 1,

19 58

E stim a tes o f t h e m ilita r y m an pow er p o o l
fo r June 30, 1958, j(table 1 ), w e re p re p a re d in
the follow in g m anner:
In form a tion on the t o t a l m a l e population
fr o m ages 18-J- to 25 in C o n t i n e n t a l United
States in 1958 w as obtained fr o m unpublished
e stim a te s of the U. S. B ureau o f the C en su s.
T h ese e s tim a te s w e re adjusted to allow fo r the
population of the t e r r it o r ie s and to co r r e s p o n d
w i t h data fr o m the S electiv e S e rv ice System
and M ilita ry D ep artm en ts w h ich are tabulated
by y ea r of birth .
The n u m b e r s of m en i n ea ch age grou p
who had en tered s e r v i c e by July 1958 w ere
obtained fr o m D epartm en t o f D efen se r e c o r d s .
T h ese w ere d edu cted fr o m the total population
to obtain t h e numbe r who had not e n t e r e d
s e r v ic e .
An estim ate of t h e num ber o f m en p h y si­
ca lly o r m en ta lly unfit fo r s e r v ic e was dedu cted
fr o m th ose a vaila b le fo r s e r v ic e . An e a r lie r
study b a sed on S electiv e S e rv ice d a t a shows
that in A p r il 1953 about 22 p e rce n t of the young
m en who had been su b ject to p h y sica l exa m in a ­
tion s w ere not p h y sica lly and m en ta lly a c c e p t­
a b le .1 In A ugust 1958, the standards of a cce p t­
a b ility w ere ra is e d by the C o n g re s s to p erm it
the A rm e d F o r c e s to r e j e c t a substan tially
la r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of m en with low A rm e d
F o r c e s Q u a lifica tion T est s c o r e s than w as p e r ­
m itted b e fo r e .
T h is, along with other m in or
a d m in istra tive ch a n ges, has had the e ffe c t of
ra isin g the r e je c tio n rate fo r the population to
about 33 p e rce n t. B eca u se m any of the old er
age grou p s had a lrea d y b e e n fu lly exam ined
b e fo r e the standards w ere ra is e d , the r e j e c ­
tion ra tes w ere graduated fr o m 22 p e rce n t at
age 26 to 33 p erce n t a t age 19 a n d you n ger
a g e s.
D epen den cy d efe rm e n ts (c la s s III-A ) w ere
a ls o d edu cted fr o m the ’’ a v a ila b le’ 1 grou p. The
m en in the III-A ca te g o r y in A p r il 1953* w ere
aged to July 1958 to obtain the num ber of this
grou p s till in the m ilita r ily lia b le age grou p.
A n estim ate of new fa th ers and new h ardsh ip
c a s e s who had b een c la s s ifie d as III-A was
8




m ade on the b a s is of an in c r e a s e in the III-A
grou p betw een July 1957 and July 1958. A ge
d istrib u tio n s of a ll the d epen den cy d e fe rm e n ts
sin ce A p r il 1953 w ere b a se d , in g e n e r a l, on
the age d istrib u tio n of m en who had not e n tered
s e r v i c e and e stim a te d fath erh ood ra te s fo r
ea ch age. A d eta iled d is c u s s io n o f m eth ods
of estim atin g fa th e rs in June 1958 and the num ­
b e r b e com in g fa th e rs in ea ch y e a r fr o m 1958
to 1963 begin s on page 10. An a llow an ce was
m ade a ls o fo r m en d e fe r r e d b e ca u se they w ere
e m p lo y e d in ce rta in c r it ic a l o ccu p a tio n s.
E stim a te s of t h e num ber of d e f e r r a b l e
students who w ere p h y sica lly and m en ta lly fit
fo r m ilita r y duty w e re a lso d edu cted fr o m m en
oth erw ise available i n June 1958 sin ce th ese
m en p re su m a b ly w o u l d not b e a vailable fo r
s e r v ic e until they d iscon tin u ed th eir education .
V irtu a lly a ll s t u d e n t s who m aintain ce rta in
a ca d e m ic standards and attend s ch o o l on a fu ll­
tim e b a s is are d e fe r r a b le .
Since th ose stu­
dents who are fa th e rs are d e fe r ra b le u n d e r
other S elective S e rv ice p o lic ie s , they w e re not
d edu cted as students in this com pu tation .
The num ber of d e f e r r a b l e students was
d e riv e d in the fo llo w in g m anner:
(1) The num ber o f e n r o l l e d m a l e stu­
d ents, b y sin gle y e a r s o f age, was a vailable
f o r O cto b e r 1958 fr o m unpublished B ureau of
the C en su s data.
(2) The num ber of v etera n s e n r o l l e d in
in stitu tion s o f h igh er learn in g w a s available
fr o m the V etera n s A d m in istra tio n .
The a g e
d istrib u tio n of v e te ra n s in s ch o o l was e s tim a t­
ed by co n stru ctin g a ’ ’ n o rm a l” s e t o f s ch o o l
e n ro llm e n t ra tes fr o m data fo r urban w h i t e
m a le s , in 1940, fr o m the 1940 D ecen n ia l C en ­
su s.
T h ese ra te s a t the you n ger ages w ere
re a so n a b ly co m p a ra b le in le v e l to the o v e r a ll
m ale ra te s in 1958 and w ere not a ffe cte d b y
the in c lu s io n of la rg e n u m bers of o ld e r v e te ra n
students who attended s ch o o l under the p r o v i­
sion s of the v a rio u s GI b ills .
By co m p a rin g
that age pattern o f these ra te s with th ose o f
the 1958 C en su s, a n e stim a ted n o r m a l age
pattern o f nonveteran e n ro llm e n t r a t e s was
obtained.
The num ber o f p a r t-tim e students
1 ilitary Manpower Requirements a n d Supply,
M
1954-60 (BLS Bull. 1161, March 1954), p. 37.
2A special survey was made in A p r i l 1953 of
Selective Service R e g i s t r a n t s which contained
Selective Service classifications by s i n g l e year
of age of registrants.

9
w as a ls o estim a ted fr o m 1958 C en su s data, as
w a s the num ber o f m a r r ie d m en am ong fu ll­
tim e co lle g e students. In d eriv in g the num ber
o f fa th ers who w e re students it w as a ssu m ed
t h a t m a r r ie d students w ould have fa th erh ood
ra te s about h alf that of the g e n e r a l popu la­
tion .
The r e j e c t i o n rate a m o n g a ll students
w a s rou ghly estim a ted at 15 p e rc e n t.
Since
v e r y few c o lle g e students fa il the m en ta l r e ­
q u irem en ts te s t, and sin ce sligh tly m o r e than
half o f the r e je c t e e s are r e je c te d f o r m en tal
r e a s o n s , the r e je c tio n rate fo r th ese m en w as
re d u ce d to a llow f o r this fa c t.
P r o je c te d M anpow er P o o l,

1959-63

The es tim a te s o f t h e m ilita r y m an pow er
p o o l in future y e a r s w ere com pu ted by d ed u ct­
ing annual ou tflow s fr o m the J u l y ‘ 1958 p o o l
and adding e s t i m a t e d annual in flow s to the
p o o l.
O utflow s f r o m t h e m i l i t a r y m an pow er
p o o l w e re p re p a r e d by the D ep artm en t o f D e fe n s e .
They a re b a s e d e s s e n tia lly on e s t i­
m a tes o f m an pow er lo s s e s o w i n g to n o rm a l
a ttrition and to the ex p ira tion o f en listm en ts
and tou rs o f duty, sin ce this study a ssu m e s a
s m a ll d eclin e in the siz e of the A rm e d F o r c e s
fr o m 2 .6 m illio n in m i d - 1958 to 2 .5 in m id 1959, and no change betw een 1959 a n d 1963.
The tota l ou tflow s fr o m the m ilita r y m an pow er
p o o l a ls o in clu d es an estim a te o f the n um ber
o f n o n -p r i o r - s e r v i c e m en who w ill en ter t h e
reserve fo r c e s .
T h e n u m ber o f m en w h ose
te r m o f s e r v ic e w ill e x p ire in the y e a r s ahead
is estim a ted fr o m r e c o r d s of past en listm en ts
fo r ea ch o f the s e r v ic e s . Not a ll of the m en
w h ose en listm en ts e x p ir e , h o w e v e r, re q u ire a
re p la ce m e n t. A bout 85 to 90 of e v e r y 100 m en
who com p lete th eir secon d o r h ig h er tou r of
duty re e n lis t im m e d ia te ly a fter th eir te r m is
o v e r . E ven am ong th ose com p letin g th eir f ir s t
en listm en t, 25 to 30 p e rc e n t r e e n lis t. A m ong
in d u cte e s, h o w e v e r, only 4 o r 5 out o f e v e r y
100 r e e n lis t. E s tim a te s b a sed on e x p e rie n ce
and an a p p ra is a l of future d ev elop m en ts w e re
m ade of future le v e ls o f th ese r a te s . In ad­
d ition to th ose m en who r e e n lis t im m edia tely,
an allow an ce w as m ade fo r th ose m en who r e ­
e n ter s e r v ic e a fter a s i g n i f i c a n t e l a p s e
o f tim e .
A n oth er estim a ted ou tflow fr o m the m an ­
p ow er p o o l w as m ade to a llow fo r m en who are
e x p ected to b e co m e fa th e r s .
A n a ssu m p tion
w as m a d e, in p rep a rin g th ese e s tim a te s , that
the num ber o f fa th e rs in the p o o l w ould not
e x c e e d 300,000 and a ll oth er dr a ft-lia b le fath er s
w ould be c la s s ifie d as III-A .




Inflow s to the M ilita ry M anpow er P o o l
The n u m b e r o f a b le -b o d ie d m en rea ch in g
age 18^ who w ill be a v a i l a b l e fo r m ilita r y
s e r v ic e in the n e x t few y e a r s is b a se d upon
B ureau o f the C en su s e s t i m a t e s o f m a le s
rea ch in g that age le s s an allow an ce fo r th o s e
who w ill not be p h y sica lly and m en ta lly a c c e p t­
able t o the A rm e d F o r c e s and a n a llow an ce
fo r a b le -b o d ie d students who w ill be in s ch o o l
when they re a ch age 18^.
The in flo w s t o

th e

military

m an pow er

pool a ls o inclu d e students who d iscon tin u e th eir
ed u cation , b e ca u se m o s t b e co m e lia b le fo r the
d ra ft when they d ro p out o f s c h o o l o r grad u ate.
The e s tim a te s of the num ber o f students who
are e lig ib le fo r the d ra ft but who are d e fe r r e d
a n d t h e nu m ber who b e co m e a vaila b le ea ch
y e a r w e re com pu ted as fo llo w s .
The p r o p o r t i o n o f m a l e s in ea ch age
grou p who w e re e n ro lle d as fu ll-tim e n on vet­
era n students in O ctober 1958 is d escrib ed on
page 8 ,
T h ese p ro p o rtio n s w e re p r o je c te d to
1963 using the ris in g tren d s in d ica ted in t h e
e n ro llm e n t ra te s fo r m en fo r the p e r io d 194758.
T able 5 show s the a ssu m ed p ro p o rtio n s
o f the m a le population d e fe r r a b le as students
during the future p e rio d 195 9-63 . A n e stim a te
o f the num ber o f students d e fe r r a b le i n ea ch
y e a r fr o m 1959-63 w as obtain ed b y applying
t h e p r o je c te d ra te s to t h e future population
e s tim a te s . The num ber o f students b e co m in g
a v a i l a b l e ea ch y e a r b y discon tin u in g th eir
ed u cation w as obtained as the sum o f d if fe r ­
e n ce s betw een the n um ber e n ro lle d i n d ra ftl i a b l e a ges i n one y e a r and the n u m b e r
e n r o l l e d in the next o l d e r a g e s i n t h e
next y e a r .
T able 50 P r o je c te d p ro p o rtio n s of m a le popu­
lation 1 8-25 y e a r s o f age e lig ib le fo r d e ­
fe rm e n t as students, 1959-63

1959

1 8 ............
1 9 ............
2 0 ............
2 1 ............
2 2 ............
2 3 ............
2 4 ............
2 5 ............
X
I

the C en su s.

i 960

1961

1962

1963

42. 8
24. 0
1 7.9
13. 8
9. 0
5. 5
3 .4
2. 6

A ge

45. 8
2 5 .6

4 8 .9
27. 3
20. 2
1 5 .4
10. 1
6. 1
3 .7
2. 8

5 1 .9
2 8 .9
2 1 .4
16. 3
10. 6
6. 4
3 .9

5 3 .8
30. 5
2 2 .4
1 7.2
11. 1
6 .7
4 .0
2 .9

1 9 .0

14. 6
9 .6
5 .8
3 .6
2 .7
'J

2 .8

4
.

10

E stim a tes o f the N um ber o f F a th ers in the
M ilita r y Manp ow er P o o l
Since n onfather i n d u c t e e s a re ca lle d up
fo r a ctive duty b e fo r e fa th ers it w as n e c e s s a r y
to b rea k down the m an pow er p o o l a ccord in g ly .
Men in the S e le ctiv e S e r v ic e a g es who a re not
fa th ers r e p r e s e n t the la r g e s t sin gle s o u rce of
m ilita r y m a n p ow er. No d ir e c t data a re a v a il,
able on the n u m bers o f fa th ers in the p opu la ­
tion b y d etailed a g e s . F o r this r e a s o n , e s t i_,/
m a tes w ere m ade o f the num ber o f fa th ers in
the m i l i t a r y m a n pow er p o o l .
D a t a Irorp.
S e le ctiv e S e r v ic e r e c o r d s a re a va ila b le on the
n u m ber o f fa th ers in the I_A c la s s ific a t io n , but
th ese data a r e p ro b a b ly u n derstated b eca u se
o f the la rg e num ber o f u n c la s s ifie d m en and
the n orm a l l a g in r e c la s s ific a t io n fo r status
ch a n g es.
Data fr o m t h e B u r e a u o f t h e C en su s'
C u rren t P o p u l a t i o n S u rvey a n d fr o m t h e
N ational O ffice o f V ita l S ta tis tics w e re u s e d
to obtain m a rr ia g e ra te s fo r the c iv ilia n popu ­
la tion fo r b o t h m en and w om en .
E stim a tes
a ls o w ere m ade fr o m the C u rren t P op u lation
S u rv eys and V ita l data o f the p e rc e n t o f m a r .
r i e d w om en at ea ch age who w ere m o th e r s .
B y rela tin g data on age o f husbands to age o f
w iv e s and to the p r o p o rtio n o f w iv e s a t ea ch
age who a re m o th e r s , it w as p o s s ib le to e s t i­
m ate the p ro p o rtio n s o f m en at ea ch age who
a re fa th e r s .
To estim a te t h e p ro p o rtio n o f
n on fath ers in ea ch age who w ill b e co m e fa th e rs
b e fo r e rea ch in g t h e next o ld e r a g e, t h e in­
c r e a s e fr o m age to age in the p e r c e n t o f a ll
civ ilia n m a le s who are fa th ers w as rela te d to
the p ro p o rtio n o f m en who w ere n on fath ers in
co r re s p o n d in g a g e s .
The follow in g tabulation
show s the m ethod o f estim a tin g the p e r c e n t o f
m en who a re fa th ers at ea ch age and the p r o ­
p o rtio n s o f n on fath ers who b e co m e fa th ers in
ea ch y ea r o f a ge.
The fa th erh ood ra te s d e riv e d i n

the m an-

ner d e s c r ib e d above w ere u sed to estim a te the

Age
(i)
1 8 ..............................
1 9 ..............................
2 0 ..............................
2 1 ..............................
2 2 ..............................
2 3 ..............................
2 4 ..............................
2 5 ..............................




Percent of
male civilian
population
married
(2)

Median age of
wife
corresponding
with age of
husband
(3)

5
12
22
39
51
61
68
73

17.9
18. 5
1 8.9
1 9.7
20. 3
2 0 .7
2 1 .2
2 1 .7

num ber o f fa th e rs am ong oth e rw ise d ra ft-lia b le
m en in June 1958 a n d the n u m ber b e co m in g
fa th e rs in ea ch y e a r . B eca u se the ch a n ges o f
b e co m in g a fath er p r io r t o en terin g m ilita r y
s e r v ic e depend on how long m en re m a in in the
m ilita r y m an pow er p o o l b e fo r e they en ter the
A rm e d F o r c e s , i t w a s n e c e s s a r y to r e c o n ­
s t r u c t fo r p a st p e r io d s and to e stim a te fo r
future p e r io d s , the actu al e x p e rie n ce o f ea ch
age group in r e g a r d to the tim e o f e n try into
the A rm e d F o r c e s .
In o r d e r to do t h i s , a
d istrib u tio n w as obtained fr o m the B ureau o f
t h e C en su s fo r ea ch y e a r fr o m July 1956 t o
July 1963 o f the m a le popu lation in the S e le c ­
tive S e r v ic e a ges b y sin gle y e a r s o f a ge. M en
who en te re d upon m ilita r y duty w e re deducted
fr o m ea ch age grou p in the y e a r in w hich they
e n te re d s e r v ic e . D ed u ction s w ere a ls o m ade
fr o m these population e s tim a te s to a llow f o r
the s m a l l p r o p o rtio n o f the m ale popu lation
who a re r e je c te d fo r m ilita r y s e r v ic e b y the
lo c a l d ra ft b o a rd s im m e d ia te ly a fte r they r e g ­
is te r at age 18|, and the sm a ll p r o p o r tio n o f
ea ch group w h ich , it was a ssu m e d , w ill gain
exem p t status.
An a llow an ce w as a ls o m ade
fo r the r e je c t io n s 3 in t h e popu lation w h o, ac­
co rd in g to the n o rm a l S e le ctiv e S e r v ic e p r o ­
c e d u r e , do not get exa m in ed until the la s t y ea r
o r two b e fo r e m o s t o f the m en in th eir age
group a re re a ch e d fo r indu ction .
E s t i m a t e s o f t h e n um ber o f f a t h e r s
am ong those rem ain in g m en who w e re n o t!a l­
low ed fo r in these com pu ta tion s w ere m ade by
applying the fa th erh ood ra te s d e s c r ib e d e a r ­
l ie r . E stim a tes o f the num ber o f m en b e c o m ­
ing fa th e rs in ea ch age in ea ch y e a r w e re o b ­
tained b y applying a p p rop ria te fa th erh ood ra te s
fo r t h e nonfather civ ilia n popu lation in ea ch
age group who w e re n o t i n s e r v ic e and who
w ere not unfit fo r s e r v ic e as they p a s s e d fr o m
one age to the next o ld e r a ge.
- „
^

,

0

rejection rate is discussed on page 8 .

Percent of
wives who are
mothers at
ages shown
in column 3
(4)
44
48
52
56
59
62
67
70

Percent of
men who are
fa the r s
(2) x (4)
(5)
2
6
11
22
30
38
46
52

Percent Of non­
fathers becoming
fathers during
the jea r
2
4
5
12
10
11
13
11

U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1959 O -532366