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M ILITA R Y M ANPOW ER REQ U IREM EN TS AND SU PPLY, 1 9 5 4 -6 0 MARCH B u lle t in N o . 1161 U N ITED STA TES DEPARTMENT OF LA B O R J a m e s P. M itc h e ll, S e c r e ta r y BU REA U OF LABO R STATISTICS Ew an C la g u e ,C o m m is s io n e r 1954 M ilita ry M anpower R e q u ire m e n ts and S u p p ly , 1 9 5 4 - 6 0 No. 19 in a Series of Manpower Reports Bulletin No. 1161 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR James P. Mitchell, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague, Commissioner For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. - Price 40 cents L E TTER OF TRANSMITALL United States Department of Labor, B u r e a u of Labor Statistics, Washington 25, D. C. , February 19, 1954. The Secretary of Labor: I have the honor to transmit herewith a report on Military M a n p o w e r Requirements and Supply, Fiscal Years 1954-60. This report, originally prepared at the request of the Office of Defense Mobilization, is one of several studies of military m a n p o w e r prob l e m s prepared in the B u r e a u of Labor Statistics. The B u r e a u wishes to acknowledge the cooperation of the D e p a rtment of Defense, the Selective Service System, the Office of Health, Education, and Welfare, the Bureau of the Budget, and other Federal agencies in providing unpublished data or c o m m e n t i n g on drafts of this report. This report w a s prepared by Stuart A. Pettingill and Stuart H. Garfinkle of the Division of M a n p o w e r and E m p l o y m e n t Statistics, S e y m o u r Wolfbein, Chief. S o m e of the techniques and methods of estimating used w e r e developed in an earlier study in the series, prepared under the supervision of C a i m a n R. Winegarden. E w a n Clague, Commissioner. Hon. J a m e s P. Mitchell, Secretary of Labor. ii F oreword O n August 1, 1953, the President of the United States asked the National Security Training C o m m i s s i o n to submit to him, by D e c e m b e r 1, 1953, recommendations with respect to the feasibility and desirability of initiating a national security training p r o g r a m (6 months universal military training) during a period in which inductions for 2 yeard* service in the A r m e d Forces would also be made. At the s a m e time, he asked the Director of Defense Mobili zation to submit a report on the availability of m a n p o w e r to simul taneously operate a military training program, supply military personnel for active service, and m e e t the needs of the civilian economy. The Director of Defense Mobilization established a C o m m i t t e e on M a n p o w e r Resources for National Security to assist h i m in evaluating the facts and formulating recommendations, and he asked the Department of Labor, and other G o v e r n m e n t agencies to provide information and recommendations bearing on these subjects. The Bure a u of Labor Statistics w a s requested to prepare the present report and additional statistical analyses. The purpose of this report is to provide estimates of the m a n p o w e r pool available for military service under alternative a s s u m p tions as to the strength of the A r m e d Forces and national military m a n p o w e r policies. N o specific military m a n p o w e r recommendations or suggestions are m a d e or intended in this report. A preliminary draft of the present report, identified as M a n p o w e r Report No. 19, which received limited circulation within the Go v e r n ment, w a s used by the National Security Training C o m m i s s i o n and the C o m m i t t e e on M a n p o w e r Resources for National Security in preparing their reports. This preliminary report w a s a m e n d e d and augmented in the f o r m of addenda (which also received only limited circulation) in order to take account of changes in A r m e d Forces strength projections^ and to supply additional information on alternative levels of mobilization. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics has studied military m a n p o w e r problems for m a n y years and prepared a n u m b e r of reports, the distribution of these reports has been limited because of security considerations. This report is the first which has been based on A r m e d Forces requirements data released for publication b y the Department of Defense. In view of the general public interest in the problems, the present report is being published. It covers the material contained in the preliminary draft and addenda as well as revisions based on data received m o r e recently f r o m the Selective Service System*s 1 percent iii sample inventory of registrants, the Office of Education, and other sources. These supplementary data have permitted further refine m e n t s in techniques and m o r e accurate projections. F o r this reason s o m e of the data in this report differ f r o m those credited to the B u r e a u of Labor Statistics in the reports of the C o m m i t t e e on M a n p o w e r Resources for National Security and the National Security Training Commission. However, these differences do not involve magnitudes which alter any conclusions which could be d r a w n f r o m the original data. The first part of this report deals with the n u m b e r of m e n avail able for military service under current laws and regulations if the strength of the A r m e d Forces w e r e maintained for the rest of the decade at approximately the level projected for the end of fiscal year 1955. O n the basis of this analysis, subsequent sections show the effect on m a n p o w e r supply of: (a) a National Security Training P r o g r a m ; (b) the maintenance of A r m e d Forces at approximately the level of the K o r e a n emergency; and (c) maintaining the A r m e d Forces at roughly their current level. The closing sections deal with military m a n p o w e r supply for a " stepped-up1 partial mobiliza ! tion such as might result f r o m a further deterioration of the interna tional situation, and for a full mobilization. T h e hypothetical projections of A r m e d Forces strength of 3. 03 and 3. 36 millions, respectively, used in this report w e r e provided b y the Department of Defense; their use beyond fiscal 1955 does not reflect actual plans and policies of the D e partment of Defense which has not established plans for these years. The alternatives in the section dealing with a stepped-up partial mobilization are not intended as recommendations or suggestions by the Department of Labor, but solely as illustrations of the problems involved in reaching and m a i n taining an A r m e d Forces strength of 5 million men. Similarly, the levels of A r m e d Forces strength used to illustrate problems arising in a stepped-up partial mobilization and a full mobilization situation are m e r e l y assumptions, and do not represent Department of Defense plans. IV C O N TEN TS Page S u m m a r y o£ conclusions ................................... Military m a n p o w e r r e q u i r e m e n t s ...................... . M a n p o w e r available for service ............................. Selective Service m a n p o w e r pool as of July 1, 1953 ......................................... Inflows to the Selective Service pool, fiscal years 1 9 5 4 t 6 0 ........ The year-end pool, 1954-60 ............................. 1 . 3 6 7 8 8 The effect of a National Security Training P r o g r a m on the p o o l .................................................. 13 The military m a n p o w e r pool with A r m e d Forces strength at 3. 36 millions........................................... 15 The military m a n p o w e r pool with A r m e d Forces strength at 3. 5 million............................................. 17 Military m a n p o w e r requirements and supply for a steppedup partial mobilization................... 18 Military m a n p o w e r supply forfull mobilization ... 25 ......... Appendixes: A. - Chart illustrating the flows of m a n p o w e r into and out of the A r m e d F o r c e s ............................... 30 B . - T h e Selective Service m a n p o w e r pool at the start of fiscal year 1954 ..................................... 32 Tables: 1. Projected A r m e d Services m a n p o w e r requirements, gains and losses to civilian life, fiscal years 1954-60 ...... V 4 Tables - Continued 2. Page Yields to the Selective Service pool, by Selective Service classification, July 1, 1953 ............................................... 9 3. Projections of Selective Service m a n p o w e r pool, fiscal years 1954-60 ( A r m e d Forces strength of 3. 03 million m e n ) ................................. H 4. The year-end military m a n p o w e r pool with 200, 000. m e n in a National Security Training p r o g r a m each y e a r .................................. 14 5. Year- end military m a n p o w e r pool under vary ing reenlistment and rejection r a t e s ................. 16 6. A r m e d Forces requirements resulting f r o m ex pansion of net strength f r o m 3. 36 million to 5 million............................................19 7. Estimated m a x i m u m yield to the A r m e d Forces f r o m various sources of military m a n p o w e r , fiscal year 1955 ..................................... 21 8. Projected year-end military m a n p o w e r pool, fiscal 1954-60, based on various assumptions as to sources of m a n p o w e r for the buildup and maintenance of 5 million A r m e d F o r c e ............... 23 9. A g e distribution of the A r m e d Forces under a hypothetical full mobilization......... 27 Population of military age on July 1, 1954, by military status and a g e ............................. 28 10. Appendix tables: A. Yield to the Selective Service pool by Selective Service classification, July 1,1953 ................. ..33 B. Estimated distribution of college and university students, fall 1953, by Selective Service status as of July 1, 1953 ...................................... 34 C. Derivation of the rejection rate for the m a l e population aged 22-24 in April 1953 ........... . vi 37 A p p e n d i x tables - C o n t i n u e d D. Page Estimated additions to Selective Service pool f r o m 18-1/2 year olds, fiscal years 1953-60 ............. 40 Charts: 1. 2. 3. Estimated military m a n p o w e r pool, fiscal years 1954-60 .............................................. ix Estimated year-end military m a n p o w e r pool, fiscal years 1953-60 tinder various A r m e d Forces strength projections.................................. 12 F l o w chart illustrating the m o v e m e n t of people into and out of the military m a n p o w e r pool and the A r m e d Forces, fiscal year 1955 ............................. 30 vii Chart 1. ESTIMATED M ILITARY MANPOWER POOL Fiscal Y ears 1954-60 1953 v iii U IT D ST T S D P R MN O L B R N E AE E AT E T F AO BUREAU OF LABOR S A I T C TTSIS 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 MILITARY MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS AND SUPPLY, 1954-60 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS An appraisal of the m ilitary manpower pool1 in relation to projected Armed Forces requirements through fiscal I960 (the year ending June 30, I960), leads to the following major conclu sions bearing on the formulation of manpower policy: 1. More men will be available for m ilitary service than are required to maintain Armed F orces strength at 3, 030, 000 through fiscal 1960 under present Selective Service laws and deferment policies (chart l). The size of the Selective Service manpower pool will increase steadily to I960, and the average age of induction will gradually rise to over 21 years by the end of fiscal I960. This increase would permit a liberalization of defer ment policies and practices if deemed desirable on other grounds. 2. Sufficient manpower would be available to conduct a National Security Training Program covering 200, 000 men a year, provided Armed Forces strength would not have to be again increased to meet a new emergency. The desira bility of instituting such a program, however, depends upon other factors than the supply of manpower. 3. If Armed F orces strength is further reduced in future years, there will be a more rapid increase in the size of the Selec tive Service manpower pool. 4. On the other hand, the maintenance of Arm ed Forces strength at 1953 levels (approximately 3. 5 million) would cause a stringency in manpower supply by fiscal 1959. This illustrates the extreme sensitivity of the pool to relatively small changes in Arm ed Forces strength when projected over a period of years. l In this report, the Selective Service manpower pool refers to the estimated number of men who, at the end of each fiscal year, are physically and otherwise qualified; who are liable for the draft; and who would not be exempt from the draft or eligible for deferment if they were reached for induction. 30 2191 0 - 54 - 2 _1_ -2. During the present period of international tension, there is always the possibility of again having to increase Armed Forces strength. This consideration must be carefully weighed by manpower policy officials before any changes are made in present m ilitary manpower policies. 5. From now until I960, m ilitary manpower supply would be roughly in equilibrium with Armed Forces requirements if the Arm ed Forces strength were maintained at about 3. 36 m illion. This, of course, assum es the continuation of present number of enlistments, and present rejection and reenlistment rates and Selective Service laws and regulations. Larger Arm ed Forces would continue to deplete the pool until after I960 (when there will be a substantial increase in number of men reaching military age) and sm aller Arm ed F orces would result in an accumulation of men available for service. 6. If another emergency like that in Korea required a stepped-up partial mobilization, enough men could be obtained to expand the Arm ed Forces to 5 million in 1 year's time. Since the initial expansion would probably require an extension of the term s of service of men in the Arm ed Forces and the recall of R eserves, appropriate changes would have to be made in Selective Service laws and regulations and in legislation relating to the military reserves. The maintenance of Armed Forces of this size would be increasingly difficult each year. This level could only be maintained by increasing the term of service of inductees and by a drastic reduction in deferments. These modifications would also require changes in current laws and regulations. 7. Armed Forces as large as in World War II could be raised within 3 years, but this would require obtaining a higher yield from men of m ilitary age than was achieved during World War II owing to the slight decline in the population of men of prime fighting age (18 through 29 years). 8. These estimates are believed to be generally conservative and sufficiently accurate, under the assumptions stated, to provide a statistical framework for manpower, policy. The conclusions of this report are, of course, subject to reexamination as new data become available. -3- 9. Since the pool is extremely sensitive to relatively sm all changes in Armed Forces strength, the formulation of military manpower policies re quires a continuing reappraisal of such changes and other variables affecting the size of the man power pool. Information should be collected and analyzed on such key points as rejection rates, enlistment and reenlistment rates, and the draft classification of students which also affect the size of the pool. MILITARY MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS The rapid expansion of the armed services after the Korean outbreak will continue to affect manpower procurement through fiscal 1960. During the first year after the outbreak of Korean hostilities (fiscal 1951), the Arm ed F orces were expanded over twofold. This expansion was achieved by calling up about 7 50 ,0 00 reservists and national guardsmen, by voluntary enlistments of 700, 000, and by inducting almost 600, 000 men through the Selective Service System. The next year (fiscal 1952) was largely a replacement year since net strength increased by only 400, 000. The larger number of inductions in fiscal 1951, as compared with fiscal 1952, created a replacement cycle which will continue through fiscal 1960. Arm ed Forces requirements are now somewhat higher in odd numbered years than in even numbered years. How ever, as a result of the projected reduction in Arm ed F orces strength during fiscal years 1954 and 1955, the amount of the y ea r-to -y ea r variation will be sm all. The Arm ed F orces strength projections fof future years and the estimates of expected gains and losses upon which this report is based were provided by the Department of Defense (table l). These figures project a decline in net strength during fiscal 1954 from 3. 56 m illion to 3. 36 m illion, and during fiscal 1955 to 3. 03 million. Thereafter, it is assumed that net strength will remain constant at 3. 03 m illion through fiscal 1960. In preparing their estimates of Arm ed F orces gains and lo s s e s , the Department of Defense relied upon recent operating experience, modified wherever changes could be anticipated. The Department of Defense based its projections on the following stated assumptions as to the future: 1. No active m ilitary combat such as occurred in Korea. 2. Extension through fiscal 1960 of the Universal M ilitary Training and Service Act and current regulations, with 24 months of service for inductees. Table 1 .-Projected Arm Services M ed anpow Requirements* Gains and Losses to Civilian Life* Fiscal Years*195^-60 er (In thousands) Armed Forces Net strength* start of year ........ ............................. Personnel leaving service: 2 / Inductees ................................................................ . Enlistees #.„..................................................... .. •., Officers ............................................... ................. Total ..................................................................... . Personnel entering service: Inductees ....................................... ... ............ ♦.., E n listees............ .................................................... Subtotal from the Selective Service p o o l........ .. . . . Officers 3 / ................................................ .............. Other V ................................................................... .. . . . T o ta l..................................................................... . Net strength* end of year ..................... . .................. . • • • * Fiscal year 195U : 1955 : 19563/; _. • • • 19573/; 19583/; 19593/; 19603/ • • 3*350 3*030 3*030 3*030 3*030 3*030 590 (U70) 180 m 510 510 60 l*o5o 310 210 (520) liO 190 75o 3*030 270 510 60 5H o 300 U 5o 60 m 26o U oo 60 Wo 320 Uo U 60 85o 28o IIO 4 60 Wo 280 330 (610) ho 190 5Iio 330 260 (590) ho 180 SlO 300 210 (5io) ho 170 Wo 330 270 (600 ) liO 180 82o 310 230 (5to) ho 170 Wo 3*030 3*030 3*030 3*030 3*030 V fiid of fiscal year 1955 strength projected through fiscal year I960; the actual strengths for fiscal year 1956 and beyond have not been established. The figures noted are considered reasonable for purposes of this study. 21 Excludes immediate reenlistments and interservice transfers. "if Officer gains from R T * Reserves* and draft commissions. OC k / Includes female enlistments* male enlistments under 18-1/2* and other enlistments outside draft ages* enlist ments of m with prior service* and enlistments of Reserves in deferred or exempt categories. en Source: U. S. Department of Defense. -5- 3. Continuation of GI bill benefits, i. e. , under Veterans1 Readjustment Assistance Act of 1952. 4. Approximate present manpower supply (as a pool for voluntary enlistments) with inductions limited mainly to men over 1 9-1 /2 years of age. 5. No material change in present economic conditions and employment level. 6. No inductions under a National Security Training Program , but only inductions for 24 months of m ilitary service. Estim ates of the number of personnel leaving the Arm ed Forces range between 720, 000 and 890, 000 in even numbered years and between 810, 000 and 1, 080, 000 in odd numbered years. Implicit in these estimates are assumptions as to the number who will reenlist (immediate reenlistments are not shown as either a gain or loss in table l). The Department of Defense estimated that approximately 30 percent of their voluntary enlistees would reenlist when their term s of service expire, but that only 5 percent of the inductees would reenlist. This estimate was based on their most recent expe rience. One of the reasons for using a lower estimated reenlistment rate than used in earlier reports is the reasonable assumption that the large number of men who enlisted during the past 3 years as an alternative to being drafted will be le ss likely to remain in the service. Although these estimates are the best that can be made from current information and experience, reenlistment rates vary widely with economic conditions; the age, rank, or length of service of the men whose enlistments are expiring; and other factors. Computa tions were made in an earlier study of the effect of varying reenlist ment rates upon the Selective Service pool. Although computations in table 5 (p. 16) were based upon a higher Armed F orces net strength, they illustrate the effect of such variations on the year-end pool. Expected gains, of course, equal lo sses (except in fiscal years 1954 and 1955 when net strength is being reduced). About 1 out of 4 of the men needed to make up Armed Forces losses in fiscal years 195 4-6 0 will come from outside the pool, according to Department of Defense estim ates. Officer gains from ROTC, the R eserves, and direct com m issions are estimated at 40, 000 each year. An estimated 130, 000 men under 18-1/2 years of age are expected to enlist each year. This figure, based on the actual fiscal 1953 experience, is about 30, 000 below earlier projections because the Department of Defense anticipates a reduction in these enlistments resulting from the end of the fighting in Korea. Men with prior service, women, and other groups outside the pool are expected to provide an additional 40, 0 0 0 -6 0 , 000 enlistments a year. However, the great majority of men will have to come from the pool, either by voluntary enlistment or induction. The number required will vary between 470, 000 and 610, 000 in even numbered years and 520, 0 00-600, 000 in odd numbered years. One of the critical points in projecting requirements from the pool is estimating the number of men who will enlist rather than wait to be inducted. Since a 4-year enlistment provides the same •manpower for the m ilitary as two inductions, a dropoff in enlistments from the pool would increase the total requirements from the pool. Recent experience is not a very reliable guide in estimating expected enlistments from the pool in fiscal years 1954-60 because of the fighting in Korea and several periods when enlistments in the Armed F orces were restricted by quotas during fiscal years 1949-53. For these and other reasons, estimated enlistments from the pool may contain a considerable margin of error. However, any change in the number of enlistments from the pool which might result from the end of the fighting in Korea would not affect the size of the pool until 2 years later. MANPOWER AVAILABLE FOR SERVICE In the first year of Korean hostilities (fiscal 1951) it was necesisary to draw almost 1 million men from the Selective Service manpower pool through induction or enlistment in the Armed F orces. Am ost 800, 000 men were withdrawn from the pool in fiscal 1952 and over 800, G O in fiscal 1953 O These drains rapidly exhausted the large back log of draft eligibles available when Korean hostilities began. As a result, the Selective Service System was operating on a current basis in fiscal 1952 and 1953 since the year-end pool contained fewer men than were needed for the next year*s draft calls. A s of August 25, 1953, all new dependency deferments were elim i nated except in cases of extreme hardship. This removed one major factor contributing to the stringency of the pool and as a result almost all physically and mentally qualified men now reaching the age of liability (with the exception of those enlisting in the National Guard before age 18 and a few other small groups) will eventually be avail able for service. -7- A lm ost three-fourths of the 5. 4 million persons whom the Arm ed Forces will need to draw from civilian life in fiscal years 1954-60 will come from these men who are subject to induction. This includes both those who actually will be inducted and those subject to induction who enter m ilitary service through enlistment. To determine the prospective supply of men subject to in duction, estimates were prepared of the numbers of men who are or will become liable for induction under the Universal M ilitary Training and Service Act of 1951 and present draft regulations. These estimates do not correspond with Selective Service data as to the number of registrants in various classifications because they allow both for expected losses from groups currently cla ssi fied as available for service and for future gains from new regis trants and from certain deferred categories. In the absence of direct data on a number of key points relating to the availability for service of registrants, the estimates were made by indirect methods, using collateral data on population characteristics *tnd school enrollments, as well as Selective Service classification re ports and their 1 percent sample inventory of registrants. The estimates may contain a considerable margin of error. However, assumptions and methods leading to conservative estimates of availability generally have been used. 2 There were two major steps in estimating the number of men available for service. The first was to estimate the Selective Service pool as of the start of fiscal 1954; that is , the expected yield to the Arm ed F orces from those registered at that time and not in deferred cla sse s. The second was to estimate the number of men becoming available for service each year from deferred classes and from young men reaching draft age. Selective Service manpower pool as of July 1, 1953 At the start of fiscal 1954, there were approximately 1 million Selective Service registrants who were not in deferred or exempt classes or in the Arm ed F orces. More, than half of these men were classified in I-A but had not received Armed F orces induction examinations. In estimating the yield from these sources, allowances were made for students enrolled in high school or college in the 1953 fall term . (See b e lo w .) A lso subtracted were the estimated 2See appendix B for a description of sources of data, assumptions, and estimating techniques. -8- n u m b e r s w h o w o u ld b e fou n d u n fit f o r s e r v i c e , t h o s e w h o w o u ld r e c e i v e h a r d s h ip d e p e n d e n c y d e fe r m e n t s , o r t h o s e w h o had b e c o m e fa t h e r s b e t w e e n Ju ly 1, 1953, and A u g u s t 2 5 , 1953, b e f o r e b e in g r e a c h e d f o r in d u c tio n . T h is le f t an e s tim a t e d 5 5 0 , 000 m e n in the p o o l at the b e g in n in g o f f i s c a l 1954 (ta b le 2 ). O f the e s tim a t e d 7 4 5 ,0 0 0 f u l l - t i m e m a le n o n v e te r a n stu d en ts o f d r a ft a g e e n r o lle d in in s titu tio n s o f h ig h e r le a r n in g in th e f a ll o f 1953, t h e r e w e r e a p p r o x im a t e ly 2 1 0 , 000 w h o c o u ld n ot b e a c c o u n t ed f o r in S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n r e p o r t s , a ft e r a llo w a n c e s f o r the n u m b e r o f stu d en ts in d e f e r r e d o r p o s tp o n e d c l a s s e s , o r d is q u a lifie d f o r s e r v i c e . T h e s e stu d en ts w e r e p r e s u m e d , t h e r e f o r e , to b e in the I - A and " n o t c l a s s i f i e d " g r o u p s . A lth o u g h n o t in s p e c i f i c a l l y d e f e r r e d o r e x e m p t c l a s s e s , th e y w e r e e x c lu d e d f r o m the J u ly 1, 1953 b a s e p e r io d p o o l. T h is w a s c o n s is t e n t w ith the a s s u m p tio n that c u r r e n t d e fe r m e n t and p o s t p o n e m e n t p o l i c i e s w o u ld h a v e the n e t e f f e c t o f d e fe r r in g n e a r ly a ll c o l l e g e stu d en ts u n til th e y g r a d u a te o r d r o p o u t . 3 A c c o r d in g ly , the y ie ld f r o m a ll c o l l e g e s tu d e n ts , w h e th e r o r n ot in s p e c i f i c a l l y d e f e r r e d c l a s s e s , w a s in c lu d e d in the in flo w s to the p o o l. A s im ila r p r o c e d u r e w a s f o llo w e d w ith r e s p e c t to h ig h s c h o o l stu d e n ts. T h e flo w c h a r t in a p p e n d ix A (c h a r t 3) illu s t r a t e s the c o m p le x it y o f the flo w o f m a n p o w e r f r o m c iv ilia n l i f e in to and ou t o f th e S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e m a n p o w e r p o o l and the A r m e d F o r c e s . T h e c h a r t s h o w s the flo w s d u rin g f i s c a l 1955. In flo w s to the S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e p o o l, f i s c a l y e a r s 1 9 5 4 -6 0 A p p r o x im a t e ly 660 , 000 m e n w ill b e a d d ed to the S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e p o o l d u rin g f i s c a l 1954. T h e n u m b e r s o f m e n b e c o m in g a v a ila b le f o r s e r v i c e e a c h y e a r w ill i n c r e a s e g r a d u a lly u n til th ey r e a c h a lm o s t 8 0 0 ,0 0 0 d u rin g f i s c a l i9 6 0 . T h e s e in flo w s to the p o o l w ill c o n s i s t l a r g e l y o f stu den ts w h o g ra d u a te o r d r o p ou t o f s c h o o l and n on stu d en ts r e a c h in g 1 8 - 1 / 2 , a ft e r a llo w a n c e f o r e n lis t m e n t p r i o r to th is a g e , and R e s e r v e o r N a tio n a l G u a rd sta tu s. A p p e n d ix B d e s c r i b e s in d e t a il how in flo w s to th e p o o l w e r e e s tim a t e d . T h e y e a r - e n d p o o l , 1 9 5 4 -6 0 O w ing to the p r o je c t e d d e c r e a s e s in A r m e d F o r c e s s tr e n g th d u r in g f i s c a l y e a r s 1954 and 1955, the n u m b e r o f m e n b e c o m in g 3 C o lle g e stu d en ts m a y b e d e f e r r e d on the b a s is o f c l a s s s ta n d in g , S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e c o l l e g e q u a lific a t io n t e s t s c o r e s , o r e n r o llm e n t in R O T C u n its . In a d d itio n , w h en f i r s t r e a c h e d f o r in d u c tio n , stu d en ts m a y r e c e i v e p o s tp o n e m e n ts to the end o f th e ir c u r r e n t a c a d e m ic y e a r . ( F o r a m o r e d e t a ile d d i s c u s s io n o f stu d en t d e fe r m e n t s ta n d a r d s , s e e a p p e n d ix B . ) T a b l e 2 . - Y i e l d s to th e S e l e c t i v e S e r v i c e Pool* by Selective Service Classification* J u l y 1* 1 9 5 3 (In t h o u s a n d s ) 302191 0 - 5 4 Total number * Estimated i n c l a s s 1/ j d e d u c t i o n s C l as sif i cat i o n T o t a l I - A * e x a m i n e d a n d a c c e p t a b l e ......... ........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L e s s : L a s t m i n u t e d e f e r m e n t s ................ ............... ......... . R e j e c t i o n s at i n d u c t i o n s t a t i o n s ............... ............... . Y i e l d to p o o l .............. ............................... ................ 270 T o t a l I-A * n o t e x a m i n e d * 1 8 - 1 / 2 - 2 5 y e a r s o f a g e ........................ L e s s : S t u d e n t s n o t e l s e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d ( and e l i g i b l e f o r d e f e r m e n t ) O t h e r d e f e r m e n t s ................ ................................... R e j e c t i o n s (IV-F) e x p e c t e d f r o m m e n n o t e l i g i b l e f o r d e f e r m e n t 58 0 Estimated net y i e l d to p o o l 5 15 - 210 20 100 Y i e l d t o p o o l ....................... ....................................... _ 250 - — i 25o VO I Total not c l a s s i f i e d o v e r 1 8 - 1 / 2 y e a r s of age ..................... . 180 L e s s : M e n w h o h a v e a l r e a d y s e r v e d in the A r m e d F o r c e s ............. H i g h s c h o o l s t u d e n t s ( e l i g i b l e f o r d e f e r m e n t ) ........... . C o l l e g e s t u d e n t s (e l i g i b l e f o r d e f e r m e n t ) ................... . — 75 15 15 5 O t h e r d e f e r m e n t s ...................................... ............. R e j e c t i o n s (IV-F) e x p e c t e d f r o m m e n n o t e l i g i b l e fo r ............ ........................... ................. - - 20 Y i e l d to p o o l ...... .............. ........ .................... .......... - deferment Total number* J u l y 1* 1 9 5 3 ............................................. 2/ 1*030 5o 55o 1 / C o m p u t e d f rom Selective Service data* 2/ T h e r e w e r e 1 3 * 0 7 0 * 0 0 0 m e n i n c l asses n o t s h o w n i n t h i s t a b l e a n d 3 5 0 * 0 0 0 m e n ( u n d e r 1 8 - 1 / 2 ) w h o h a d n o t b e e n c l a s s i f i e d o n J u l y 1* 1 9 5 3 . How e v e r * n o n e o f t h e s e m e n c o u l d h a v e b e e n a v a i l a b l e f o r s e r v i c e o n J u l y 1* 1 9 5 3 -10 - a v a ila b le f o r s e r v i c e t h e r e a ft e r w ill e x c e e d the n u m b e r le a v in g to e n te r the A r m e d F o r c e s e a c h y e a r . T h e r e f o r e , the S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e p o o l w ill in c r e a s e s te a d ily f r o m the 5 5 0 , 000 m e n w h o w e r e a v a ila b le at the b e g in n in g o f f i s c a l 1954 to 1 ,6 7 0 , 000 m e n at the end o f f i s c a l 1960 (ta b le 3). C a u tio n sh ou ld b e u s e d in in te r p r e tin g t h e s e fin d in g s . The S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e p o o l d o e s n ot r e m a in c o n s ta n t d u rin g the y e a r . S in c e a f a i r l y la r g e n u m b e r o f h igh s c h o o l and c o l l e g e stu d en ts m o v e in to the p o o l in la te M a y and e a r ly June e a c h y e a r , b e c a u s e o f g r a d u a tio n s and d r o p o u t s , th e p o o l r e a c h e s its lo w e s t le v e l in the m o n th s im m e d ia t e ly p r e c e d in g th is in flu x . T h e p o o l l e v e l a ls o flu c tu a t e s b e c a u s e o f v a r ia tio n s in m o n th ly m ilit a r y r e q u ir e m e n t s . F u r t h e r m o r e , the in d ir e c t m e th o d s u s e d in m a k in g t h e s e e s t i m a t e s - - a n d th e b a s ic a s s u m p t io n s a s to e n lis t m e n t s , r e e n lis t m e n t s , and r e j e c t i o n r a t e s - - m a y in v o lv e s o m e e r r o r . 4 W h ile e r r o r s in e s tim a t in g the b a s e p e r io d p o o l a r e m e r e l y c a r r i e d a c r o s s in e a ch y e a r - e n d p o o l , e r r o r s in p r o je c t in g in flo w s to the p o o l , o r o u tflo w s to the a r m e d s e r v i c e s , m a y b e c o m p o u n d e d e a c h y e a r s in c e th e y a r e d e r iv e d b y the s a m e te c h n iq u e and f r o m the s a m e a s s u m p t io n s . It i s im p r o b a b le , h o w e v e r , that su ch e r r o r s w o u ld a ll b e in on e d i r e c t io n . F o r t h e s e and o th e r r e a s o n s , th e p o o l p r o je c t i o n s b e c o m e l e s s r e l i a b l e w ith e a c h s u c c e e d in g y e a r . D e s p it e a ll the u n c e r t a in t ie s in v o lv e d in e s tim a t in g s o fa r in to the fu t u r e , the e v id e n c e is c l e a r that the s u p p ly o f m a n p o w e r is m o r e than a m p le to m a in ta in an A r m e d F o r c e s s tr e n g th o f 3. 03 m illio n th ro u g h f i s c a l 1960 (ta b le 3). T h is w o u ld b e tru e e v e n w ith m o r e p e s s i m i s t i c a s s u m p t io n s a s to r e e n lis t m e n t and r e je c t i o n ra tes. S in c e m o r e m e n b e c o m e a v a ila b le e a c h y e a r than e n te r the A r m e d F o r c e s , the a v e r a g e a g e o f in d u c tio n w ill r i s e g r a d u a lly u n til it r e a c h e s o v e r 21 b y f i s c a l i9 6 0 . If A r m e d F o r c e s s tr e n g th is r e d u c e d b e lo w 3 m illio n in fu tu re y e a r s , t h e r e w ill b e e v e n m o r e m a n p o w e r a v a ila b le f o r m ilit a r y s e r v i c e . On the o th e r hand, the m a in te n a n c e o f A r m e d F o r c e s s tre n g th a t c u r r e n t l e v e l s w o u ld c a u s e a s t r in g e n c y in m a n p o w e r su p p ly b y f i s c a l 1959. T h e e x t r e m e s e n s i t iv it y o f the y e a r - e n d p o o l to r e la t iv e ly s m a ll c h a n g e s in A r m e d F o r c e s s tr e n g th p r o je c t e d o v e r a p e r io d o f y e a r s is sh ow n in c h a r t 2. 4 T a b le 5, p . 16, in d ic a t e s the r a n g e o f e r r o r in the e s t im a t e s w h ic h w o u ld r e s u lt f r o m c h a n g e s in t h e s e v a r ia b le s . Table 3.-Projections of Selective Service Manpower Pool* Fiscal Years 195U-60 (Armed Forces Strength of 3.03 Million Men) (In thousands) - - - ------------ - -- - -- "---— ---- ------ ---- T" - ♦ Pool Fiscal year ; Pool, start of year .......................... 9k $ 7 U0 890 970 1,090 1 ,3 0 0 1*10:0 U20 1*30 2U 0 ho h 1:60 250 1:60 260 1:80 260 5io 250 fm Less men leaving to enter the armed services. -U70 -52 0 7h0 890 # /57o 19 5 9 ! 1956 : • Plus men becoming available for service: 1 8 - 1 / 2 year olds ......................... Deferments expiring (largely students) .... Total men becoming available......... ...... Pool, end of y e a r ............ ............... • 19 5 7 19 5 5 55o 1 2U0 : : • 1958 : • I • i960 260 pm pros pm -6 10 -590 -5io -600 -5Uo 970 1,090 1 ,3 0 0 1,14:0 1,670 pm 1 H H 1 •12 Chart 2. ESTIMATED YEAR-END MILITARY MANPOWER POOL FISCAL Y E A R S , 1953-60 Thousands o Men f Under Various Armed Fo rces Strength Projections . . . -13- A s lo n g a s the in te r n a tio n a l s itu a tio n r e m a in s u n c e r t a in th e r e is a lw a y s a p o s s i b i l i t y o f h avin g to i n c r e a s e the A r m e d F o r c e s s tr e n g th a g a in . If su ch a situ a tio n o c c u r s the s u b s ta n tia l m a n p o w e r p o o l sh ow n b y t h e s e e s t im a t e s w o u ld g r a d u a lly d is a p p e a r . If the a s s u m p t io n is m a d e , h o w e v e r , that the r e d u c t io n in A r m e d F o r c e s s tr e n g th b e lo w 3 m illio n w ou ld c o n tin u e to I9 6 0 , th is w o u ld p e r m it c h a n g e s in p r e s e n t la w s and r e g u la tio n s w ith r e s p e c t to in c r e a s in g d e fe r m e n t s , r a is in g m e n ta l and p h y s ic a l s ta n d a r d s , o r in stitu tin g a p r o g r a m o f u n iv e r s a l m ilit a r y tr a in in g . T h e d e s ir a b ilit y o f s u ch c h a n g e s , o f c o u r s e , w o u ld d ep en d o n m a n y o th e r f a c t o r s b e y o n d the s c o p e o f th is r e p o r t , f a c t o r s w h ich m ig h t b e o f o v e r r id in g im p o r t a n c e to t h o s e r e s p o n s ib le f o r fo r m u la tin g m a n p o w e r p o l i c y . TH E E F F E C T O F A N A T IO N A L S E C U R IT Y T R A IN IN G P R O G R A M ON TH E P O O L T h e N a tio n a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g C o m m is s io n h a s p r o p o s e d a p r o g r a m o f u n iv e r s a l m i l i t a r y tr a in in g w h ic h w o u ld o p e r a t e c o n c u r r e n t ly w ith in d u c tio n s f o r 2 y e a r s ' s e r v i c e in the A r m e d F o r c e s . A l l p h y s ic a lly and o t h e r w is e q u a lifie d you n g m e n r e a c h in g 18 y e a r s o f a g e w o u ld b e lia b le f o r 6 m o n t h s ' N a tio n a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g o r 2 y e a r s ' s e r v i c e in the A r m e d F o r c e s . M en n ot n e e d e d f o r s e r v i c e w o u ld b e s e le c t e d b y lo t and in d u cte d f o r N a tio n a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g th ro u g h the S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e S y s te m . U pon c o m p le t io n o f t h e ir tr a in in g , th ey w o u ld s e r v e in an im m e d ia t e ly c a lla b le r e s e r v e f o r 7 - 1 /2 y e a r s . W ith A r m e d F o r c e s s tre n g th s t a b iliz e d at 3. 03 m illio n m e n in f i s c a l y e a r s 1954 to 1960, s u ffic ie n t m a n p o w e r w o u ld b e a v a ila b le to c o n d u c t a N a tio n a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g P r o g r a m c o v e r in g 2 0 0 , 000 m e n a y e a r w ith ou t a n y fu r th e r ch a n g e in la w s and r e g u la tio n s o th e r than t h o s e r e q u ir e d to im p le m e n t the p r o g r a m (ta S le 4 ). If la w s and r e g u la tio n s w e r e ch a n g e d , a s p r o p o s e d b y the N a tion a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g C o m m is s io n , 5 m o r e than 2 0 0 , 000 m e n c o u ld b e tr a in e d e a c h y e a r and s t ill le a v e o v e r 4 0 0 , 000 m e n in the p o o l at the end o f e a c h y e a r . T h e y h av e p r o p o s e d m o d ify in g c u r r e n t la w s and r e g u la t io n s to m a k e N a tio n a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g a p r e r e q u is it e f o r the d e fe r m e n t o f m e n w ho jo i n the N a tion a l G u a rd b e f o r e r e a c h in g a g e 1 8 -1 /2 and so that c o l l e g e stu den ts (o r h ig h s c h o o l g r a d u a te s p lan n in g to atten d c o l l e g e ) s e le c t e d in a N a tio n a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g l o t t e r y w ou ld n o t b e e lig ib le f o r d e fe r m e n t f r o m N a tion a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g . 5In th e ir r e p o r t to the P r e s id e n t , "2 0 th C e n tu ry M in u t e m e n ," N a tion a l S e c u r it y T r a in in g C o m m is s io n , D e c e m b e r 1, 1953. Table U.-The Year-End Military Manpower Pool With 200*000 Men in a National Security Training Program Each Year (In thousands) Fiscal year The year-end pool 1 9 # ........................................................... 770 1 9 # ........................................................... 630 1957 ........................................................... 530 1958 ........................................................... 520 1959 ........................................................................... 1960 ........................................................... I i IiO U5o 3/ Assumptions: (l) The training program begins on January 1* 19^5J (2) 100*000 men are trained in fiscal 1955 and 200*000 each year thereafterj (3) The ratio of trainees to training staff is 5:1. The training staff is in addition to the pro jected Armed Forces strength and regular service personnel detached for training can be replaced for inductees j ( | All i) other assumptions as in table 3. -15- TH E M IL IT A R Y M A N P O W E R P O O L , W IT H A R M E D F O R C E S S T R E N G T H A T 3. 36 M IL L IO N S If in te r n a tio n a l c o n d it io n s r e q u ir e the m a in te n a n ce o f A r m e d F o r c e s o f 3. 36 m illio n m e n — a le v e l that w a s c o n s id e r e d at on e tim e b y the D e p a r tm e n t o f D e fe n s e - -e n o u g h m e n w o u ld b e a v a ila b le to m a in ta in th is str e n g th th ro u g h f i s c a l i9 6 0 w ith ou t an y c h a n g e s in le g is la t io n o r d e fe r m e n t p o l i c y i f the b a s ic a s s u m p t io n a s to r e e n lis t m e n t and r e je c t i o n r a t e s r e m a in e d v a lid . T h e e s tim a t e d y e a r end S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e p o o l w o u ld b e a s f o llo w s : F is c a l yea r 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 Y e a r -e n d p o o l1 (in t h o u s a n d s ) ____ ____ ____ 550 740 550 ____ 610 ____ ____ ____ ____ 510 680 590 760 1 T h e s e p o o l fig u r e s w e r e c o m p u te d f r o m the s a m e m a n p o w e r s u p p ly f ig u r e s u s e d e a r l i e r in th is r e p o r t , f r o m A r m e d F o r c e s s tr e n g th p r o je c t i o n s at the 3. 36 m illio n l e v e l , and f r o m e x p e c t e d a c c e s s i o n s and s e p a r a tio n s p r o v id e d b y the D e p a r tm e n t o f D e fe n s e w h ich w e r e b a s e d u p on the s a m e a s s u m p t io n s a s th e ir 3. 03 m illio n p r o j e c t i o n s . T h e s e e s t im a t e s in d ic a te that f i s c a l 1957 w o u ld b e th e m o s t c r i t i c a l y e a r , w ith a y e a r - e n d p o o l o f 510, 000 m e n — l e s s than the p r o je c t e d in d u c tio n s (5 1 5 , 000) f o r that y e a r . E n ou gh m e n w o u ld b e l e f t in th e p o o l to p e r m it the S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e S y s te m to m e e t its m o n th ly c a l l s and s t ill m a in ta in a flo w o f r e g is t r a n t s u n d e r g o in g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o r e x a m in a tio n p r i o r to in d u c tio n . 6 6A s p o in te d ou t p r e v io u s ly , the S e le c t iv e S e r v ic e p o o l d o e s n o t r e m a in c o n s ta n t d u rin g the y e a r . M o r e o v e r , an e r r o r in p r o je c t in g in flo w s to the p o o l o r in e s tim a tin g r e e n lis t m e n t and r e je c t i o n r a t e s c o u ld h a v e a s ig n ific a n t e f f e c t u p on the s iz e o f the y e a r - e n d p o o l. T a b le 5 * — Y e a r-E n d M ilit a r y M anpow er P o o l U n der ( in V a r y in g R e e n lis tm e n t and 1 9 5 k R e e n lis tm e n t Low r a t e s r a t e s B e s t e s t im a t e H ig h r e e n lis t m e n t R e je c t io n (3 0 r a t e s r e je c t i o n B e s t e s t im a t e 1 / A ssu m es o f~ s e r v ic e 2 / 3 / k / an d (2 0 p e r c e n t ) p e r c e n t ) r a t e s 1 / (i+ 0 a ssu m e d , an d th a t a 2 / k 2 0 , 1 / 1 9 5 6 ! 1 9 5 7 * 1 9 5 8 ; 19 5 9 ! 1 9 6 0 o th e r 6 9 0 p e r c e n t ) 1 / and 2 9 0 3 8 O 2 3 0 3 5 0 0 5 5 0 6 1 0 51 0 5 8 0 5 9 0 7601 6 7 0 79 0 71*0 9 8 0 9 5 0 1 ,1 7 0 1*90 5 3 0 h lO 5 6 0 W O 59 0 c 5 5 0 6 1 0 51 0 6 8 0 5 9 0 76 0 6 2 0 70 0 6 2 0 8 1 0 71*0 91*0 % * ................................. r a te W O 70 0 r k 5 0 8 00 ............................................. • • • • • • • • «• • • • • • • • • • «• • r e e n lis t m e n t o th e r ..................................................... ....................................... ... n * • • • • ................ ... ......................................................... ... f 3 0 , 11 r e je c t i o n p e r c e n t a 1 2 A ssu m es an d r a t e s r a t e s 1 3 A ssu m es d e n t s , ! o r k 0 p e r c e n t , o 7 9 0 r e s p e c t iv e ly , o f a l l v o lu n ta r y e n lis t e e s w i l l r e e n lis t w h en t h e i r te rm s e x p ir e * A ssu m es d e n t s , and j j / ............................................................................................................... ... r e je c t i o n d e n t s , r a t e 1 9 5 5 c o n s t a n t : H ig h L ow r e je c t io n ; y e a r c o n s ta n ts r e e n lis t m e n t f a c t o r s a ssu m ed , R a te s th o u s a n d s ) F is c a l f a c t o r s R e je c t io n r e je c t i o n p e r c e n t a f o r f o r r e je c t i o n p e r c e n t f o r r a t e o f c o ll e g e r a t e o f c o lle g e r a t e o f c o lle g e 2 7 p e r c e n t f o r th e e n t ir e n o n s tu d e n t p o p u la t io n , 2 k p e r c e n t f o r h ig h s c h o o l s tu f o r th e e n t ir e n o n s tu d e n t p o p u la t io n , 2 2 p e r c e n t f o r h ig h s c h o o l s tu f o r t h e e n t ir e n o n s tu d e n t p o p u la t io n , 20 p e r c e n t f o r h ig h s c h o o l s tu s tu d e n ts * 25 p e r c e n t s tu d e n ts * 23 p e r c e n t s tu d e n ts * -17- T a b le t w o o f t h e e n l is t m e n t e n l i s t e e s t o in i n d i c a t e s a j o r a n d r e e n l i s t f r o m f i s c a l o p e r a t i n g S e r v i c e l e v e l t h e I T H e n y e a r - e n d l e v e l m M . in T h e s t r e n g t h o f F 5 o f t h e t h e i r I f s 3 0 m A N P O W a n A r m 1 9 5 9 a t e d e d s e r v i c e p e r c e n t ) t h e f e a s i b l e t o 2 0 l o w b y t h e o f w e r e p e r - e s t S e l e c t i v e a n d 1 9 6 0 3 . in t h e b y ( f o r t h e I L L I O N a n A r m i n g t h o u 3 . 5 e s t e d m e s t im i l l i o n a t e d o p e r a t i n g S e l e c t i v e F S e r v i c e o r c e s t a b u la t io n : Y e a r - e n d (I n o f t h e l o w t h e f o l l o w y e a r M b r i n g b e l o w f e a s i b l e 5 s t r e n g t h w o u ld p o o l s h o w n P O O L A T F o r c e s l e v e l ) y e a r - e n d i s E R S T R E N G T H i n i s t r a t i v e l y i l l i o n ) i s c a l p o o l 1 s a n d 1 9 5 4 ................... . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 0 1 9 5 7 . . . . . 2 1 0 1 9 5 8 . . . . . 2 3 0 1 9 5 9 .................... 1 4 0 1 9 6 0 . . . . . ) 4 0 0 1 9 5 6 s 6 0 0 1 9 5 5 1 6 0 1 T h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s a s s u m t h e p t i o n s p o o l 3 . 3 6 m 3 . 5 m e s t i m I t b a s e d e r e f o r A r m e x p e r i e n c e w h il e s a m e d F o r c e s e d t h a t e o f t h e 3 . m e n t i r e l y t h e s e t h e t h e p r o j e c t i n g ( b e t w e e n b e in in a s s u m s t r e n g t h t h a t o n u s e d w a s w o u ld a n d p e r c e n t ) a r e w a t e s in i l l i o n ) i n d u c t io n w o u ld t h a t i l l i o n . d i f f e r e n c e (6 i f r e p r o p o r t i o n o f a p p r o a c h i n i s t r a t i v e l y p o o l p o o l - - t h e t h e t e r m a t e l y w o u ld y e a r - e n d t h e a l t e r e d . p r e s e n t f i s c a l a d m e s t im 3 . t h e o f e r e p o o l M F O R C E S a t e l y p o o l t o s i z e ( a p p r o x i m a d m I L I T A R Y E D c o n s i d e r e d S y s t e m l e v e l s t h e p le t i n g c o m y e a r - e n d a in t e n a n c e ( a p p r o x i m h a p p e n . A R M T h e m r a t e s - - w c o n s i d e r e d S y s t e m w o u ld a f f e c t i n g u p o n c u r r e n t 1 9 5 9 T H E W w h a t v a r i a b l e s r e j e c t i o n w h o d e c l i n e c e n t 5 m a d e 3 6 a d d it io n a l s a m t h e u p e a s b y i n d u c t e e s a t t r it i o n s e r v i c e a n d r a t e s o t h e r i n d u c t e e s . A r m 1 9 5 9 a n d t io n s o r b y e n t s 0 2 1 9 1 0 - 5 4 - 4 3 r e e n l i s t m w o u ld o f t h is s i z e r e l a t i v e l y s t a n d a r d s . p r e s e n t e n l is t m F o r c e s p r o c e d u r e s , r e j e c t i o n t h e e d I 9 6 0 e . g . T h i s , e n t s m , b y o f c o u l d a l l r e d u c i n g c o u r s e , e x p e r i e n c e . n e c e s s i t a t e b e m m c h a n g e s o r e a in t a in e d in d e f e r m a s s u m A n y d r a s t i c i n S e l e c t i v e e s e n t s t h e f i s c a l S e r v i c e a n d l o w y e a r s r e g u l a e r i n g c o n t in u a t io n s u b s t a n t ia l r e v i s i o n s d r o p in in r e S e l e c t i v e o f - 18- S e r v i c e r e g u l a t io n s I t m e n in i s i s c o n c l u d e d , a b o u t t h e f r a m M b e M f o r w o u ld e x t e n t f o r s u c h t h e f o l l o w e m o f h a v e t o b e t a in e d I n c o m o f d i f f i c u l t i e s a t h e A r m e d m e n t m t h e e n t a l o f F D o r e m e n t h a n a s w s o a t h e m e n n o t e v e n w o u ld n o r m in A r m b e a n a t t r it i o n , e d c o m F o r c e s 1 in p u t a t io n s s t r e n g t h in M t o m t h a t f r o m e e t a s t o J u n e f i g u r e a u s e n a t io n a l a b u ild u p e x p a n s io n w o u ld 1 9 5 5 ) a n d b e m t h e d a t e s w e r e a n d a n d n e c e s s a r y r e q u i r e t h is 3 0 , t h e t it n i n g B u r e a u w o u ld a n d s a n o t h e r a r e t h e u s t t h e p r o b l e m a n a l y s i s : w h ic h m a n p o w e r a n p o w e r a t i o n s t r e n g t h e n ; n o a l l o w t h e r e f o r e , m in n o a n c e s m a y o b i l i z a t i o n . n o r m a l w a y a i n r e f l e c t w it h f o r a a m t h e t h is d u r in g w a l l o w o n g m a d e s t r a m i l i t a r y a r e f o r t h e a n c e a l l e x p e r i e n c e a t t r i t i o n m e r e u n d e r s t a t e A n a t t r i t i o n c o n s i s t e n t r e a s o n s o n m e f e n s e . e d W in A r m W a r I I , W e d a s s u m t h is i n g 6 ). o f e m o f 6 b e r s t h e D p h y s i c a l s e r v i c e , I. s e c t i o n e c o u l d N e v e r s o t h e m m b e c a u s e t e r m o f e p a r t a n d u n s u i t a b i l it y m o f in m u n d e r a r m t o s e r v i c e a n b e r o f a f t e r 5 i m o t h e r o f o f t h is s i n g m 1 9 5 5 f o r e d i a t e w a y . i l l i o n a l l u s e d e n t s m m a l lo w f i s c a l b e e n r e q u i r e m n o r e p r e s e n t n u m r e p o r t . i l l i o n h a s e h i s t o r y e n d u r in g s u g g e s t s o b t a in e d w o u ld s a m t h e e n , p t i o n t h e in a n y 3 6 e x p i r e e n t h e p r e s e n t 3 . a s s u m m a b o u t i l l i o n t h e s t r e n g t h b e m i l l i o n i s f r o m d u t y T h is m in 1 . 9 t h a t o f 5 w e r e F o r c e s t o u r s p e a c e t i m w h ic h a r p r o j e c t e d a d d it i o n a l ( t a b le t o T h is o r ld t h a t w h o s e in W o r ld a n a n d F o r c e s o b i l i z a t i o n . a s t h e y e a r u n p r e c e d e n t e d e n t A r m m p e r i o d r e q u i r e e x t e n d e d t h e m a l a j o r o b i l i z e d I n c r e a s i n g m f o r d e v e l o p i n g p a r t i a l a p a r t i a l w it h d e s e r t i o n s . e r e lo n g a a d e i l l i o n f u l l - s c a l e i l i t a r y p t i o n s t h e m (b y a t e s , a t e s , r a t e M d i s a b i l i t i e s c o u n t r y , f o r m in 1 9 5 4 , D m h a v e , a n p o w e r a s s u m i l l i o n o f m i t t e e m p u r p o s e s , e s t i m e s t i m in w a s E x p a n d in g m 1 , m 5 I 9 6 0 P P L Y o f n o w i n f o r m F o r c e s s t r e n g t h e n t m r e q u e s t e d y e a r t h e t h e s e T h e a n d 5 1 e p t i o n s J u ly t o w it h in o r c e s - - a s e r v i c e , o n o u r C o m e d i t t e e a s s u m D e p a r t m e f e n s e . m o f w e o b i l i z a t i o n s o m 3 . S U s h o r t t h a n i l i t a r y m A r m i l l u s t r a t i v e i n v o l v e d y e a r in c o m B o t h f o r l o s s e s . p e r c e n t S in c e s t r e n g t h p l e t e d t h e p a r t i a l o f u n t il A N D e r g e n c y r e q u e s t e d m F o r c e s O B I L I Z A T I O N F o r c e s t h e l e g i s l a t i o n . a in t a in e d E N T S M a d e q u a c y o n a o c c u r p r e p a r i n g b a t f o r ig h t p u r e l y p la n s t h e e d m in r e g u l a t i o n s . e m e d S e c u r i t y t h e i n d e f in i t e l y . s e l e c t e d t e g i c a t e s , c o m i l i t a r y A r m i l l u s t r a t i v e m a n d d e l i b e r a t i o n s , f r o m A r m b e P A R T I A L m e x p a n s io n F o r c e s t h a t R E Q U I R E M P e r g e n c y . t h e e s t i m e d a c h a n g e s c o u l d la w s E R - U S t a t i s t i c s e m i n g o f N a t io n a l r e s u l t o f e r g e n c y A r m c u r r e n t l a r g e T it s r e q u i r e t h a t a s s e s s i n g L a b o r o r e a n - t y p e a n d in D u r in g o f u m A N P O W r e q u i r i n g e s o u r c e s w h ic h o f ig h t t h e r e f o r e , S T E P P E D c o n s i d e r e d B u r e a u K o r k A m a x i m p o s s i b i l i t y b u t s u p p ly . 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I * 8 1 j0 ------------ --- 1 * 9 0 0 i l l i o n ................................................................. .... a llo w in g 3 p e r c e n t 2 o f D e fe n s e e s t im f o r (1 * 8 U 0 j 5 * 0 0 0 3 > 3 6 0 / .............................................................................. J u n e 3 0 * R e s u lt in g M t h o u s a n d s ) J u n e a t t r i t i o n r e m a in in g i n f l o w s n e t g o a l* s t r e n g t h * p e r c e n t P e r s o n n e l N e t s t r e n g t h 3 .3 6 a t t r i . 9 7 ) . . . y e a r . 2 / S in c e t h e s e t h e y w o u ld b e a t t r i t i o n . m en w o u ld s u b je c t * o n e n t e r t h e m a t e s + i l i t a r y a v e r a g e * t o n o r m a l a t t r i t i o n s e r v i c e o n ly a d u r in g h a l f a t t h e y e a r 's 6 p e r y e a r * -20- T h e s o m m e m a n p o w e r w a y s t h a n o b i l i z a t i o n , e n t e r t ia l m w it h b e t h e e d w it h f a c e o f s e r v i c e a m T o h o w t h e a m a c h i e v e r e q u i r e a n d s o u r c e s n u m I t b e r i s o f i s b y d u r a t i o n o f a s e r v i c e o f s t e a d y m m t o e x c e p t f o r W A r m e d i s F m a m e r i n g w h il e e m o f e r g e n c y , t im o v e r , e s u p p ly t h e r e b y c a n o n l y T h e a w e l im a n d lo n g 5 b e t o u r m o f a n i l l I n e n f o r t o l a r g e m o f o f h a v e a i l i t a r y a k e r s s o m b u r d e n e m p a r a g e w o u ld g r o u p s in i l i t a r y 5 R m i l l i o n a n d e s e r v e s . r e q u i r e d m e n r e g u l a t io n s T h e a n d a l t e r n a t h e e s t im a t e d p r o d u c e a r e s h o w n in o f a l t e r n a t i v e s s h o w n w o u ld t h e A r m o f e d t o F o r c e s r a i s e t o t h e u p o n t h e 5 . 1 .9 a l t e r n a t i v e s . e a s u r e t h e t h e t h e e n i n 0 m m T h e t a b l e i l l i o n i l l i o n c h o i c e n a t u r e m t o a n d t h e e n e n t h e m 7 . m e n . e n o f a l t e r n a a n t i c ip a t e d o r m e l im m e n m m o f e n s e e m s t u d e n t o v e r a n s e r v i c e e n t s m t e c h n i c a l a n d b e T h e e x o b t a in e d e n e n t s , in a n e x t e n d e d M j e o p a r d i z e o t h e r s i z e p o l i c i e s . a n y w a y . ig h t e s e r v e s . b e e n t m a a y e a r . ig h t o f t h e d e f e r m u n t r a in e d i t t h is c a n n o t e n w o u ld s e r v i c e o f d e f e r m e n h a n d , R i n c r e a s e e a c h d e o s t t e r m p e r m t h e f o r c e s m m p r i o r a g e m o t h e r f r o m t o o f i l i t a r y e n t o r e w it h e n e d i a t e t h e ig h t i n c r e a s e s i n a t i n g d e f e r m n a t io n a l b e m m t h e s e t h e m d r a w n t ig h t e n in g e v e n t u a lly b y o f a d d it i o n a l i n c r e m a in t e n a n c e w o u ld e a n d a n y O n a in t e n a n c e s c i e n t i s t s , p l i s h e d u s e r e a c h i n g i m r e c a l l i n g e x t e n d in g s it u a t io n d i f f i c u l t y s o m t o o r c e s . e n o u g h m s t u d e n t t h e F t h e u a r d - - s i n c e p e r s o n n e l t h e p r o v i d e m e d o b t a in e d i a t e o f G i n t e r n a t io n a l a n d m r e q u i r e n e c e s s i t a t e a d d it io n A r m w it h o u t m w o u ld w o u ld N a t io n a l t e c h n i c a l t r a in e d c o n t in u e d w h ic h l i a b i l i t y i m t h e s e d u t y i l i t a r y o f l a w s w o u ld s t a n d a r d s n o t a c c o m F S e r v i c e m t h e m a lt h o u g h i n a t i o n o f e d f e a s i b l e i l l i o n , e n d a n g e r o f in y o u n g a g e b e c a u s e t h e f u t u r e m r e j e c t i o n t h e a n d d i f f i c u l t , p r o v i d i n g j e o p a r d y " a n p o w e r F o r c e s f e a s i b l e o n g m t r a in in g — o f a p p r e c i a b l y , e r i n g e d o f a n d t o o r e p a n d e d l o w u m i s i s e r g e n c y i l l i o n it w o u ld in f u ll e r g e n c y . a l r e a d y o r c e s f r o m y i e l d L o w m it A r m o f f i c e r h ile u c h b y 5 d i f f i c u l t U n d e r P o l i c y m o r c e s t h e e x p a n d e s e r v e s e n o r e e n . a l l - - m a g a in . A r m o n e l a r g e d e t e r i o r a t i o n b u ild u p m R in im n o t t h e b in a t io n in e m l a r g e a c t i v e r e q u i r e c o m e m n a t io n a l e n t t h e t h e t o t h a t e t o s i n g le e n d e p e n d o f A p l o y m o f s o m w o u ld m s e r v i c e e q u a li z e a l t e r n a t iv e n o a p p a r e n t r e q u i r e d t i v e s t h a t m b u t S e l e c t i v e a d d it io n a l e a c h e n o u g h a l s o f o r s e r v e " d o u b l e t o b e o b i l i z a t i o n . e x - s e r v i c e m e — t o a in t a in in r e la t i n g t h e e n a p p a r e n t p r o v i d e I t m m c h a n g e s o f m g r o u p s . l e g i s l a t i o n i n o f w o u ld f u l l q u a li f i e d s o m h a v e d e s i r e a n d w o u ld t i v e e v e r , p r o b l e m a l l b y in c lu d in g ig h t g e n e r a l o n g i n v o l v e d e v e r y o n e o r c e s , s e r v i c e s p r e s e n t e d o s t F o b i l i z a t i o n , p r i o r f a c e d t h e a l m A r m p r o b l e m t h o s e p e r i o d o r e t h e p e r s o n n e l , s e c u r i t y . o f a n e x t e n d in g r e q u i r e d A r m t h e e d F t e r m d e p e n d s o n o r c e o f m i l l i o n s e r v i c e . o f H o w o t h e r 5 m i l i t a r y m e n - T a b le 7 . -E s t im a t e d S o u r c e s M a x im u m o f M Y i e l d i l i t a r y 2 1 t o - t h e M a n p ow er* ( I n A rm ed F o r c e s F i s c a l Y e a r F rom t h o u s a n d s ) S o u r c e "O n e -y e a r t h e e x t e n s io n A rm e d R e c a l l o f a l l E x h a u s t in g E lim o f F o r c e s t h e in a t in g a l l L o w e r in g a g e D r a ft in g a b l e - b o d i e d I n c r e a s e d M a n p o w e r u s e 3 / c e n t t o u r s f o r a l l 6 2 / p e r c e n t T h e 3 / T h e w it h o u t S J j e l im 1 - y e a r t o u r s n o r m a l o f a g e fr o m a g e 2 6 . . . . . RO TC 1 * 2 9 0 1 * 7 7 0 ............................. .... w it h 1 *U 7 0 . . . . . . . l e s s i n c r e a s in g a n d o f 2 / 7 1 0 7 5 0 Z j U 30 th a n W m a le i n c r e a s in g d u t y o n a d d i t i o n a l o f o f t h e y e a r 1 - y e a r fr o m h ig h m en J u n e $ 1 te r m s 1 9 5 5 * e x t e n s io n e x p ir e m en 1 8 - 1 /2 s c h o o l w h ic h 3 0 * i n o f l e s s o f f i s c a l s e r v i c e a n t h e o f a llo w a n c e te r m s 1 9 5 6 * l e s s o f a n a l l o f m en 6 p e r s e r v i c e c o u ld b e o b t a in e d i f i f a l l c o u ld b e o b t a in e d t o y e a r s o f a g e s t u d e n t d e fe r m o n e n t s . J u n e o f a llo w a n c e s t u d e n t 1 9 5 k . w h ic h 1 8 7 5 5 / a t t r i t i o n . q u a n t i f i e d . o f in a t e d lo w e r e d f i s c a l a n d a d d i t i o n a l e lim in a t io n b e 1 / ................. ................................................................ e x t e n s io n i n a t t r i t i o n * A p p r o x im a t e d . C a n n o t p o o l i n ............................................................................................................... u n d e r d r a f t e x p ir e f o r w a s m en . . ................. .... G u a rd sm en i n c lu d in g f a t h e r s o b t a in e d t h e a w h o s e n u m b e r l i a b i l i t y b e d u t y w e r e m a n p ow er t o 1 8 a l l e n .................................................................................................................................................... fr o m n u m b er d e fe r m e n t s N a t io n a l d e fe r m e n ts * 1 9 5 3 o f ................................................................................................................... n o r m a l in d u c t e e s k m ig h t o f s e r v i c e c o m p u t a t io n s ) n u m b er ............................................................................................................ o u t s i d e R e s u lt in g w h o s e o f a l l a n d v e t e r a n s w o m e n t s i n S e r v i c e l i a b i l i t y o f e n t s r e e n lis t m 2 f> * s e r v i c e w h ic h e n lis t m o f o f te r m s R e s e r v e s t u d e n t p r e -A u g u s t m o n th s ' t h e S e l e c t i v e D r a ft in g 2 k I1 E s t i m a t e d (a s s u m e d a c t i v e V a r io u s 1 9 5 5 t h e a g e 3 0 * 1 9 5 k * o f -22- m a n p o w e r w a s w p o l i c i e s , a c h i e v e d . e r e c a l l e d a c h i e v e d u p b y A u g u s t n u m b e w b e r s t o t o E a c h a l l 4 t o l e a s t o n e o r c e s a e l im e n t s . I t e n i n it i a l t h a n i n a t i n g c o u l d n o t h ig h e r t h e s h o r t e r e x p a n s io n a n d w o m w h ic h e w h a t i f it w t o o f t h e m e r e a n d s h o r t e r s u b j e c t e x p a n s io n r e s e r v e s c o l l e g e b e p r o p o r t i o n i f p r e - s t i l l d r a f t e n in i f c o u l d t h e s e r v i c e t o R m i l l i o n e r o r e m o s t b a t e x a m w o u ld s e r v i c e o f t h e t o u r ) a n d m a n R i m t e r m o f m a in t a in e d , f r o m 3 - y e a r e s e r v e s a n y in t h e e x p e r i e n c e . in d u c t io n m o f t e r m o f ( m e n t a n d t h is a in t e n a n c e v e t e r a n s p r o v e m e n t m a o s t i s c h o o s e t h e r e q u i r e a c t i v e a n d t h e l e v e l t o p l e , t h a n r e e n l i s t m e s e r v e s , s t r e n g t h a l t e r n a t iv e s F o r b e y o n d ( m e n t 5 f e w s o l v e . a n d c o m r e c a l l i n g t h e o f s e r v i c e o r ld W w h o m a n b e a r H h a v e c u r r e n t A s c o u l d o f W o r e A r m e d a l t e r n a t iv e e x t e n d e d t o y e a r s . e r e t h e m f o r e s t h e s t a f f , t h e o f I n q u i r e s t h e a n d N m S e l e c t i v e l i a b l e f o r o d e l , i t d r a f t e d d u c e d a n d f o r i m o d e l o f o n ly o n t h a n o f b e b e y i e l d e d i a t e l y . 1 9 5 9 d r a f t p o o l t o a l m o s t m a g e 0 0 0 e n l i s t t h e a r e h a l f o f i s 3 t h e m R i t r e t h e e d t h a t t h e y e a r s ; (2 ) e n t s d r a f t w h e n r e q u i r e d . w o m e n u n t il w o u ld I n f i s c a l h a v e y e a r . p t i o n s 8 . g r o u p I t n o t e a c h a s s u m t a b le n o t a n d e s e r v e r e e n l i s t ) in e a c c u r a c y G e t t in g a s s u m a n d t h is w o u ld o r e x t e n d in g w h e n ( o r e n d a r e p o r t . d e f e r m e n m t im e r g e n c y p e r m f o r f a t h e r s e n t s e m d e t a i le d f r o m o f a c t i v e I t 1 8 m r e c o m t h is b y t o e n h y p o o r c e s . t h e s h o w n d r a f t d e f e r m o f c o l l e g e t o o b t a in e d F i l l u s t r a t e a d e t a i l o f e d d u t y . a l l a n d t h e o d i f i e d 5 0 , p o l i c i e s C o l l e g e w h e n m t o a s p l i s h e d o s t t o in i t a t i o n s n a t io n a l A r m r e d u c e in d u c e d l i m p o o l d i f f e r e n t o n ly u l a t e d w it h o f b e l i a b i l i t y b e t o a c c o m in d u c t (3 ) n e c e s s a r y c o u l d f o r m t h e t o u r s s h a r p l y s e c t i o n s m a n p o w e r a n p o w e r in t e n d e d l a r g e a d d it io n a l y e a r - e n d a n d n o t a g e c o u l d a t e d t o : f a t h e r s ; b e I " — b e m m s e l e c t e d n o t r e c a l l i n g ( l ) r e c a l l s f i s c a l ig h t e a r l i e r e n t 2 1 - m t w o e r e p r e p a r e d t h e " M u p o n O w in g S y s t e m d r a f t h i g h e r b e in a n d t h a t m n o t w w o u ld 1 9 5 3 , e e t a r e r e g u l a t io n s t h e w o u ld a m t h e y c a n y e a r e r e s t im u n t il 1 e d e s e r v e a lt h o u g h q u i c k l y m L a b o r . d e p l o y m l o w t h e T h e o f c o u l d a s s u m f u r t h e r p o l i c y i n s t a n c e — e n 2 5 , (4 ) e n t t o S e r v i c e b a s e d p o l i c i e s o b i l i z a t i o n ; S e r v i c e r e q u i r e d ; w h ic h G u a r d la w s a d o p t e d T h e s e e d i a t e S e l e c t i v e 1 9 5 5 -6 0 c o n t a i n e d s e r v i c e p r e - A u g u s t R m a t io n a l e x i s t i n g b e a t e s f i r s t i m o f m a t e s t h e a n s ig h t w it h in e s t i m t r a in e d t e r m m y e a r - e n d y e a r s D e p a r t m e s t i m t h e t h e s i t u a t io n s . p a r t i a l b y o f f i s c a l w h ic h e x t r e m t io n s a t e s a d e t h e t i c a l m i f h a v e o f e n l is t m s t r a t e g i c t o s r e c a l l p o l i c i e s i s i l l 1 9 6 0 E s t i m w o r t h a t w i n d u c t e e s h a d ), t h e t o y e a r p r o b l e m s t r e n g t h a t a n d in s o m i n it i a l p o o l d e f e r m e n e n l i s t a k e r s v e x i n g F m t h e t h e w a y b e r e e n l i s t . p o l i c y m f o r o f t h e w o u ld a c h i e v e f a t h e r h o o d in d u c e d e r e t o t e r m e x h a u s t in g 2 5 , l a r g e r in c lu d in g T h e i f t o h a v e a s t h is 1 9 5 7 , t h e y w b e r e t o b e e r e Table 8. - Projected Year-End Military M a n power Pool, Fiscal 1954-60, Based on Various Assumptions as to Sources of M a n p o w e r for the Buildup and Maintenance of 5 Million A r m e d Force. 1 (in thousands) Fiscal Year MODEL I : Large-scale recalls of Reserves and National Guard; 3-year induction 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 800 1,450 1, 150 465 310 2352 403 M O D E L II: Limited recall of Reserves or National Guard; 4-year inductions 800 975 300 416 2 785 380 24 53 1 Estimate's are based on the following assumptions: (l) The A r m e d Forces expand from 3. 36 million to 5 million during fiscal year 1955; (2) The terms of service of all m e n whose tours of duty expire during fiscal 1955 are extended 1 year and all inductees whose terms of service expire during fiscal 1956 have to serve another year; (3) Enlistments from the pool, officer gains, re enlistments, etc. , are all assumed to re m a i n the s a m e as in the Department of Defense 3. 36 million projections. (Although this is an unrealistic assumption, with 3- and 4-years in ductions, changes in these rates have only a moderate effect upon the pool so the possible error is minimized.) (4) The expansion in fiscal ; 1955 and the maintenance of the new strength are achieved by: MODEL, I Recalling 850, 000 Reservists and National G u a r d s m e n and inducting 860, 000 m e n f r o m the Selective Service pool. 280, 000 m e n are ob tained from outside the pool by voluntary enlistment. (600, 000 R e servists and National G u a r d s m e n serve 21-month tours of duty.) Inducting m e n for 3-year terms from the following groups in the order listed: M O D E L II Obtaining 1,245, 000 m e n from the augmented Selective Service pool, recalling 350, 000 Reserve and National Guard officers and technical personnel for 2-year tours of duty, and obtaining 305, 000 m e n f r o m outside the pool by voluntary enlistment. Inducting m e n for 4-year terms from the s a m e groups in the order as in Model I . same Pre-August 1953 fathers; M e n reaching 18-1/2, high school and college graduates, and dropouts; College students (deferment standards would be tightened); M e n 18-18-1/2 not in high school nor eligible for college deferment. Obtaining 50,000 additional enlistments (or reenlistments) each year fr o m m e n with prior service, wom e n , and other groups outside the Selective Service m a n p o w e r pool. Obtaining 75,000 additional enlistments (or reenlistments) each year from m e n with prior service, w o m e n , and other groups outside the Selective Service m a n p o w e r pool. 2College deferments would have to be restricted enough to provide an estimated 200, 000 - 350,000 m e n in these years. This would require the elimination of almost half of all college deferments and reduce college graduations by 40 percent. The n u mber of graduater students would be cut in half. 3A n estimated 300, 000 m e n age 18 - 18-1/2 (not in high school nor eligibles for college deferments) would have to be drawn into the pool in these years. This would require lowering the age of registration to 17-1/2 to provide Selective Service with an operating margin. -24eliminated. This would reduce college graduations by about 40 percent and cut the number of graduations in half. Draft calls until fiscal I960 could be met from among men over 1 8 -1 /2 years of age. During fiscal I960, however, the pool would be almost ex h a u ste d -e v e n of 18-year olds. In fiscal 1960, the age of registra tion would have to be lowered to 1 7 -1 /2 to provide the Selective Service System with an operating margin or additional men would have to be obtained from some other source. Although it might be argued that this model yields the m ost effective results from a long-range "manpower management" standpoint, it might not be feasible or desirable because: 1. 2. The duration of the emergency might not be foreseen far enough ahead to implement it; The recall of large numbers of veterans in the Reserves and drafting of the pre-August 25 fathers while college students are permitted to remain in school might be unacceptable to the public even though a greater yield could be obtained from this group if they were drafted immediately. The other extrem e--M od el II--m ig h t be feasible in an em er gency which required an equally rapid buildup but which would not require the immediate deployment of many trained troops. Under such strategic conditions, the expansion and maintenance of the A im e d F orces might be accomplished largely with untrained men and would not require an extensive recall of R eserves and veterans. The term s of service of men in the Arm ed F orces at the beginning of the emergency would still have to be extended and officer and technical personnel would have to be drawn from the Reserves to provide the large training complement needed for so many untrained ^recruits. Even then, because of the large number of experienced men required as training staff, the effective strength which could be deployed during the early months of the emergency would be le ss than under the 3. 36 m illion strength level. While the proba bility of such a "convenient" emergency is rather remote, the computations on this basis may be useful to illustrate the manpower problem s which would result from using untrained men for the buildup instead of the R eserves. This model is based on the same changes in laws and regula tions (except for 4 - year inductions) as the earlier one. Table 8 shows the estimated year-end pool and the detailed assumptions -25- it is based upon. The very heavy inductions during fiscal 1955 would require drafting m ost of the p re-A ugust 25, 1953, fathers during that year. College deferments would have to be reduced in fiscal 1957, but not as sharply as in "M od el I" until fiscal I960. During fiscal I960, the age of liability would have to be lowered to 18 and the age of registration to 1 7 -1 /2 . This manpower policy would be certain to create strong public opposition on the basis of equity. It would create a new class of veterans with more service than the veterans of any of the Nation's w ars. The manpower policy adopted in the event of a partial m obili zation would probably be a compromise between these two extrem es— especially since it would probably not be anticipated initially that such an emergency would continue for 6 or more years. Thus, it appears that the maintenance of Arm ed F orces of 5 million for an indefinite period would impose severe economic, social, and political strains on the Nation. MILITARY MANPOWER SUPPLY FOR FU LL MOBILIZATION An appraisal of our military manpower resources for full mobi lization is an essential part of any analysis of m ilitary manpower requirements and supply. The Committee on Manpower Resources for National Security requested information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on our manpower resources for full mobilization. Since the population of m ilitary age varies from year to year, the Committee recommended that, for purposes of illustration, fiscal year 1957 be assumed as the year in which full mobilization would be achieved. The analysis that follows is, therefore, purely hypothetical and in no way reflects the mobilization planning of the Department of Defense or of any other agency. In the absence of data on the probable size of the Armed F orces, the following analysis was based on World War II Armed Forces strength. Although any future period of mobilization would probably be quite different from World War II, the World War II experience serves as a guide in estimating the manpower available for military service in event of full mobilization. No attempt was made to evaluate the feasibility of providing adequate manpower for both the Armed Forces and civilian work force. The estim ates, therefore, shed no light on the critical problems of balance of m ilitary and civilian manpower. However, studies are now being conducted by Government agencies which explore the optimum balance between Armed Forces strength and manpower requirements for war supporting production. -26Owing to the lack of information as to probable combat or civilian lo sses resulting from enemy action, no allowance was made for such lo sse s. This analysis, therefore, depicts the possibility of m ilitary manpower mobilization under the most favorable conditions--conditions we could not expect would obtain in war. During World War II, the Armed Forces reached a peak of approximately 12. 3 millions in June 1945 after experiencing appreciable combat lo sse s. If the same proportion of men were obtained from each age group as in World War II, the Armed F orces would only reach 12. 3 million before allowance for com bat losses (table 9). The m ilitary manpower supply in fiscal year 1957 would, therefore, be somewhat sm aller than in World War II. M oreover, the Armed F orces personnel would be older than during World War II because there has been a decline in the population of prime fighting age (men 18 through 29 years of age) since that time. While this decline is more than offset by the increase in the male population in ages 26 to 38, the latter group yields a much lower proportion of men for m ilitary service because more men in this group are rejected for physical disa bilities or deferred for occupational or dependency reasons. The disadvantages in using older men in the Arm ed Forces may be partially offset by their greater skills which are required by the increasing technological complexity of modern warfare. The withdrawal of the same proportion of men in the age groups 30 to 38 as in World War II would probably work greater hardship on war supporting industry than in World War II. Over a million more men in the age groups 25 to 35 (an age group in which the supply of men would be favorable in 1957 compared with World War II) were employed in professional and skilled occupations in 1950 than in 1940. 7 For these reasons, it would be more difficult to obtain the same number of men as in World War II even though the male population in the age group 18 to 38 has increased slightly since then. The yield from the age groups 18 to 30 would probably have to be increased above that in World War II, although this might be difficult to accomplish. 7Derived from the 1940 and the 1950 Census of Population data on employed professional, technical, and kindred workers and crafts men, foremen, and kindred workers by age groups. Table 9• “ Age Distribution of the Armed Forces Under a Hypothetical Full Mobilization (In thousands) Age group Estimated male population* June 30* 1957 Men in the Armed Forces on June 30* 1957* using World War I I Armed Forces participation rates M in the Armed Forces en on June 30* 191*5 Rate (percent) 1 / 18 - 25 years -------26 - 29 years - - 30 - 3l* years -------3 5 - 3 8 years -------Under 18 and over 38 years - - - Total ------------ 8*830 1**590 5*930 1**700 Number 2 / Number 3 / 71 53 30 21 6*U5o 2*$00 1*81*0 1*020 6,710 2*515 1*785 860 1*90 1*30 12*300 12,300 — 21*,o5o 1/ These rates pertain only to m in the service at a given time and underestimate the total en yield to the Armed Forces from each age group. A much higher proportion of men in each age group were in service at some time during World War II* but some of these m were discharged en before June 191*5 and some entered service after that date. 2/ Includes 300*000 w en distributed according to the age o f the w en in the Armed Forces om om on June 30* 191*5. y Includes almost 300*000 w en distributed according to age. om Source: Estim ated by the Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s from data provided by th e Bureau o f Census* th e Department o f Defense* and the Veterans A dm inistration. T a b le 10 .-P o p u la t io n o f M i lit a r y Age on J u ly 1 , 193 U, by M i l i t a r y S t a tu s and Age (I n th ousands) ' Age group Under 18 y e a r s .................... 18-23 y e a r s ............................ 26-29 y e a r s .................... .. 30- 31) y e a r s ............................ 35— y e a r s ............................ 38 T o t a l 18-38 y e a r s .... E stim ated m ale p o p u la tio n • • ♦ • : In the Armed F orces : V etera n s 2/ U,300 8,810 U,690 6,060 U , 3i o 2 , 1)20 290 280 1 U0 2,030 3,220 3,100 3,000 2/ 28,370 2 / 3*360 13 , 33o Uo : Other 1 / ii ,260 U,360 1,180 680 1,370 11,830 1/ A v e r y h ig h p r o p o r tio n o f th e " o t h e r " men w i l l n o t be s u i t a b l e f o r s e r v i c e — p a r t i c u l a r l y in th e age groups from which W orld War XI and Korean m ilit a r y manpower was drawn. 2/ In c lu d e s a l l men under 18 y ea rs a t th e b egin n in g o f th e m o b iliz a t io n who w i l l reach 18 y e a r s b e fo r e June 30 , 1937 . 3/ In c lu d e s 130,000 men o v er 38 y e a r s o f age and 10 ,0 0 0 women. ) S o u r c e : D ata e stim a te d by th e Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s from d a ta p ro v id ed by th e Bureau o f C ensu s, th e Department o f D e fe n s e , and th e V eterans A d m in is t r a tio n . -29- In summary, our supply of manpower for m ilitary service would be somewhat sm aller than in World War II; the Armed F o rc e s, if as large, would include a sm aller proportion of men of prime fighting age; and the impact on industry’ s skilled and professional manpower would be greater. The initial expansion, however, would be easier than in World War II because the mobilization would be starting from a higher base. The Armed F orces would have approximately 3 m illion men to begin with. In addition, a much larger trained R eserve and a larger veteran population of m ilitary age is avail able. There will be approximately 15 m illion veterans of m ilitary age bn July 1, 1954. This figure includes m ost of the estimated 2 million men who will be in the R eserves and National Guard at that time (some R eservists and Guardsmen will not be veterans and some will be over age 38). A substantial proportion of these men would be available for m ilitary service after allowance for high rejection and occupational deferment rates. This relatively large reservoir of trained men would facilitate the initial expansion and not create the severe training cadre problems faced in World War II (table 10). •30- Chart 3. FLOW CHART ILLUSTRATING THE MOVEMENT OF PEO PLE INTO AND OUT OF THE MILITARY MANPOWER POOL AND THE ARMED FO R C ES Fiscal Year 1955 C O V O U A IN I U F E U IT D ST T S D P R MN O L B R N E AE E A T E T F AO B RA O L B RS AIS IC UE U F AO T T T S APPENDIX A iX Chart illustrating the flows of manpower into and out of the Armed Forces Men and women enter the Armed Forces in various ways. For some, military service is delayed by deferment; others fail to pass minimum physical or mental requirements at one stage or another; a few are exempted. These diverse situations complicate not only the es timating of our military manpower potential but also a ready understanding of the process and the estimates. The chart illustrates the flow of manpower from civilian life into and out of the Selective Service manpower pool and the Armed Forces during fiscal 1955. It should be noted that this is a closed system in that everyone reaching military age must be accounted for in some flow. These flows must either enter the pool or Armed Forces (shown as tanks or reservoirs in the chart), return to civilian life, or go into a future year (and eventually enter the pool, Armed Forces, or return to civilian life). The flow to and from civilian life must balance or cause corresponding changes in the level of the pool or Armed Forces "r e s e r v o ir s ." The circled numbers below refer to corresponding numbers on the chart. (1) . The size of the Armed Forces, as determined by National Security considerations, is the starting point in this chart. During fiscal 1955, projected Armed Forces strength declines from 3,360 ,0 0 0 to 3, 030, 000 men. (2) . Owing to the decline in net strength, the number of men leaving the Armed Forces ( l, 090, 000) will exceed the inflow from civilian life by 330, 000. (3) (4) (5). An estimated 230,000 of the 750,000 personnel which the Armed Forces will have to obtain from civilian life can be obtained outside the Selective Service pool from the five sources shown on the chart: (3) Female enlistments.......................................................................................................... 10,000 (3) Officer gains from the Reserves and direct commissions.................................. 10,000 (3) Enlistments from among men with prior se rv ic e .................................. .. 50, 000 (4) Enlistments of men under 1 8 -1 /2 years of a g e ................................................... .. 130,000 (5) ROTC graduates................................................................................................................. 30, 000 T otal................................................ 230, 000 (6) . The remaining men (520,000) will have to be obtained from the Selective Service pool either through voluntary enlistment or induction. (7) . The Selective Service pool contains all men (at any given time such as the end of a fiscal year) who are physically and otherwise qualified for service, liable for service, and not eligible for deferment. During fiscal 1955, an estimated 520, 000 men will leave the pool to enter the Armed Forces. How ever, the pool will be replenished by an inflow of an estimated 670, 000 men during the year. As a result, the number of men in the pool will increase from 740,000 at the beginning of the year to 890, 000 at the end of the year. (8) . The pool will be augmented by an estimated 240, 000 men whose deferments (or cause for defer ment) expire during fiscal 1955. These men will have been deferred from service (or became eligible for deferment) when they reached the age of liability in prior years. (9) . The pool will also be augmented by 430, 000 men reaching age 1 8 -1 /2 during fiscal 1955. (10). However, this is only part of the 1, 125, 000 men who will reach 1 8 -1 /2 years of age during fiscal 1955. How the estimate of 430,000 is reached and what will have happened to the remainder is detailed below: (l l). An estimated 30, 000 physically and otherwise qualified men will have already enlisted in the National Guard before they reach age 18; they are exempt from military service as long as they maintain this status. (12) . An estimated 130, 000 men will have discharged their military obligation by enlisting in the Armed Forces before they reach 1 8 -1 /2 (also listed as item 4). (13) . Approximately 10, 000 men will probably be permanently deferred or exempt from service by law (most of these men will be divinity students). (14) . Of the remaining 955,000 men aged 1 8 -1 /2 , an estimated 40,000 will be rejected (placed in class IV-F) by the local boards of the Selective Service for disqualifying reasons that are so obvious that formal ex amination is not required. (15) . An estimated 330, 000 men will be eligible for deferment as students and will not enter the pool until after fiscal 1955. (16) . Of these, 55, 000 will be found to be physically or otherwise disqualified for service (IV-F) when reached for induction; the remainder (275,000) will eventually see service. (17) . Out of the remaining 585,000 men, an estimated 155,000 (27 percent) would be disqualified for service (IV-F) if reached for induction. Since part of th£ remaining 430,000 qualified men (item 9) who enter the pool during fiscal 1955 will enlist voluntarily, the rejection rate experienced by the Selective Service System will be substantially higher than 27 percent because they will have to examine all of the 155, 000 rejectees in order to get the balance of the 430, 000. (18) . Thus, an estimated 250, 000 out of the 1, 125, 000 men who reach age 1 8 -1 /2 during fiscal 1955 will eventually be found unfit for service. (Sum losses listed in items 14, 16, and 17.) This is the re jection rate for the entire male population of military age— 22 percent. It is consistent with the rejection rates experienced by the Selective Service System (30 to 40 percent) among the men ex amined for induction, simply because this group contains all of the men who do not meet Armed Forces physical and mental standards after 190, 000 men who meet Armed Forces physical and mental standards have removed themselves from the Selective Service pool in various ways (see items 4, 5, and 11) and an additional number have enlisted voluntarily (item 17). -32- APPENDIX B I. The Selective Service Manpower Pool at the Start of F iscal 1954 The derivation of the base-period pool is summarized in table A . Methods and sources of data used in estimating the net yield from each class are outlined below. I -A Examined and A cceptable.--T h i s group consists of registrants who had been found acceptable for service at Arm ed F orces examining stations. A 2-percent deduction was made to allow for those who would be able to establish grounds for deferment prior to induction. An additional 5 percent was subtracted for the number who would: not pass final physical in spection at time of delivery for induction. I-A Not Examined.- - T h e s e are men 1 8 -1 /2 years of age and over who had not been granted deferment or exemption as of July 1, 1953. They had not yet been sent to Arm ed F orces examining stations, but had been partially screened by their local boards for obvious dis qualifying defects which would result in a IV -F classifi cation. In estimating the yield from this c la s s , allow ances were made for the number who at a later date would be classified as deferred or exempt because of physical or mental unfitness, hardship, or employment in essential occupations. The estimated numbers of high school and college students in this class also were deducted. These allowances were made as follows: 1. The I -A Not Examined classification as of July 1, 1953, contained an estimated 2 10,000 men who were enrolled in colleges and universities in the fall of that year. This represents the number of male non veteran full-tim e college students of draft age who could not be accounted for in other Selective Service classifica tions. The derivation of this estimate is summarized in table B. Data from the Selective Service Systeml s 1 percent sample inventory supports this conclusion in that it shows sm aller numbers of persons in class II-S in ages 19 and 20 than for the immediately older age group. Since m ost freshmen enter college during their 18th year of age, it is clear that many 19- and 20-year old students were not classified as such in April 1953. Actually there are many m ore deferred students aged 19 or 20 than in the next higher age groups because of the heavy dropouts from college. -33t a b l e A .- Y i e l d t o th e S e l e c t i v e S e r v i c e P o o l by S e l e c t i v e S e r v i c e C l a s s i f i c a t i o n * Ju ly 1* 19$3 3 / ( I n th o u s a n d s ) S e l e c t i v e S e r v i c e p u b lis h e d s t a t i s t i c s : : E s tim a te d : n e t y ie ld : to p ool BLS a d ju s tm e n ts T o t a l l i v i n g r e g i s t r a n t s ......................................................................................... 3ii*U l6 U nder 1 8 - 1 / 2 y e a r s ................................................................................................... - Ufr3 O v er 1 8 - 3 / 2 y e a r s ...................................................................................................... I l j * 0 1 3 T o t a l c l a s s i f i e d r e g i s t r a n t s . ..................................................... U nder 1 8 - 1 / 2 y e a r s ........................................................................... O ver 1 8 - 3 / 2 y e a r s .............................................................................. ... T o ta l liv in g r e g is t r a n ts o v er 1 8 -1 /2 y e a rs (l in e 3) T o t a l c l a s s i f i e d o v e r 1 8 - 1 / 2 y e a r s ( l i n e 7 ) ........... T o t a l u n c l a s s i f i e d o v e r 1 8 - 3 / 2 y e a r s ............................. . . . 11**013 . . . - 13*83$ .2 / TTS" T o t a l c l a s s i f i e d r e g i s t r a n t s ................................ I -A and I - A - 0 n o t e x a m i n e d ................................ L e ss th o s e under 1 8 - 1 /2 y e a rs ( l i n e 6 ) O ver 1 8 - 1 / 2 y e a r s .................................................. 13*919 ... T o t a l u n c l a s s i f i e d o v e r 1 3 - 1 / 2 y e a r s ............................................. L e s s : Men who have a l r e a d y s e r v e d ................ ........................... High s c h o o l s t u d e n t s ( e l i g i b l e f o r d e f e r m e n t ) .. C o lle g e s t u d e n ts ( e l i g i b l e f o r d e f e r m e n t) ........... O th e r d e fe rm e n ts ............................................................................ N ot e l i g i b l e f o r d e f e r m e n t .................................................................. L e s s r e j e c t i o n s (I V - F ) ............................................................ E s t im a te d number a v a i l a b l e ................................................................. 180 -7 5 -1 5 -1 $ - 5 70 -2 0 ' '50 $0 I -A and I - A - 0 n o t exam ined o v e r 1 8 - 1 / 2 ........................................ £ 8 0 L e s s : S tu d e n ts n o t e ls e w h e re c l a s s i f i e d ( e l i g i b l e f o r d e fe rm e n t) ......................................................................................... - 2 1 0 O th e r d e fe rm e n ts ....................................................... .................... - 20 N o t e l i g i b l e f o r d e fe rm e n t .................................................................. 3 $ 0 L e s s r e j e c t i o n s (I V - F ) ............................................................... - 1 Q Q E s tim a te d number a v a i l a b l e ................................................................. 2$0 2$0 . . . 13*919 667 ...( -8 U ) 2 /r ~ m I -A and I - A - 0 exam ined and a c c e p t a b l e .................................. .. I -A and I - A - 0 in d u c ti o n s p o stp o n e d .......................................................... c o n s c i e n t i o u s o b j e c t o r s * exam ined and a c c e p t a b l e ........... T o t a l .............................................................................................. 2 / 10 - 1-8 S t a t u t o r y d e fe rm e n ts h ig h s c h o o l .......................... I-S S t a t u t o r y d e fe rm e n t* c o l l e g e ....................................... 1 -0 C o n s c ie n ti o u s o b j e c t o r s * n o t exam ined . . . . . . I-C (I n d u c te d ) .................................................................................... I -C ( E n l i s t e d o r co m m issio n ed ) .......................................... I-C (D is c h a r g e d ) ............................................................................... I -C ( R e s e r v e ) ...................................................................................... I-W (A t w ork) ...................................................................................... I-W ( R e le a s e d ) ................................................................................... I - D Member o f r e s e r v e com ponent ......................................... IIA O c c u p a tio n a l d e fe rm e n t ( e x c e p t a g r i c u l t u r a l ) II-A ( A p p r e n t ic e ) ............................................................................... II-C A g r i c u l t u r a l d e fe rm e n ts .................................................. I I - S O c c u p a t io n a l d e f e r m e n ts * S tu d e n ts ........................ IIIA D ependency d e fe rm e n ts ..................................... I V - A C om pleted s e r v i c e 1 / ....................................................... IV -B O f f i c i a l s ...................................................................................... IV -C A lie n s .............................................................................................. IV -D M i n i s t e r s * d i v i n i t y s t u d e n ts ..................................... IV F U n f i t f o r s e r v i c e ............................................ V -A O v er a g e o f l i a b i l i t y ....................................................... ) Total I -A and I -A -0 * 1 - 0 exam ined and acceptable .... L e s s : L a s t m in u te d e fe rm e n ts ............................................................ R e j e c t i o n s a t in d u c t i o n s t a t i o n s .................................. E s t im a te d number a v a i l a b l e .................................................................. 2l*7 21 2 (7 7 0 ) 270 - 3 > -1 $ 2$0 2$0 69 } la ) 2 ) 93k ) 1*1*76 ) 1*$$ ) 632 ) 3 ) %l) 26 ) 7 ) 87 ) 162 l*ll*l* 876 (3/) 12 63 1*737 (T h e se c l a s s e s would n o t (h a v e y i e l d e d any men on (Ju ly 1 , 1 9 $ 3 . ) ) ) ) ) ) ) 1**889 ) $$0 T o ta l I - 8U .2 / 13*83$ F i g u r e s may n o t add o r s u b t r a c t e x a c t l y due t o r o u n d in g . C o m p u tation s by t h e B u reau o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s . N e g lig ib le . I n c l u d e s a s m a ll number o f s o l e s u r v i v i n g s o n s . - 3b - Table B.-Estimated Distribution o f College and University Students» Fall 19$3 j by Selective Service Status as of July I t 1953 (In thousands) Selective Service status ! Total male enrollment ................................................. Number 1*1*30 Less: Veterans ................................................................... Part-time nonveterans ............... Full-time nonveterans outside draft ages. . -320 -230 -l6 0 Full-time nonveterans in draft ages ............................ 720 Less: Students in deferred or exempt classes: I-D R TC and National Quard ....................... O I - S Statutory deferment — c o l l e g e ...... I I - S Occupational deferment (s tu d e n t)... I I I - A Dependency deferment...................... IV- D Divinity students ............................ IV-F Unfit for s e r v i c e .................................. Not classified ....................................................... In I-A Not examined......................... ................................... -170 —1 0 | -160 — i|0 - 10 | — 1*0 - 20 210 Source: Adapted from U. S. O ffice of Education* Veterans Administration* and Selective Service data. -35- An arbitrary estimate of 10, 000 veterans enrolled after the expiration of their educational benefits was made in the absence of data on this point. An allowance for the number of part-tim e nonveteran male students was made on the basis of data from a partially completed study on part-tim e enrollments in the fall of 1953 made by the U. S. Office of Education. An estimate of the number of college students under age 1 8 -1 /2 was based on a sample study made by the Am erican Council on Education in the fall of 1 9 5 1 .’ The number of specifically deferred or postponed college students in classes I-S and II-S totaled about 200, 000 as of the start of the fiscal year. An estim ated 4 0 ,0 0 0 additional studeiits were in class IV -D (ministers and divinity students). Students enrolled in college ROTC were estimated to account for 150, 000 of the total classed in I-D (members of reserve components) as of m i d -1953. A sm all allowance was made for students in I-D as members of National Guard or other Reserve units. On the basis of enrollment rates for the population aged 1 8-1 /2 to 19, it was estimated that some 2 0 ,0 0 0 college students were among the recent registrants who had not yet been classified by their local b o a r d s .1 0 Small allowances of 40, 000 each were made for students assumed to be in class III-A (dependency) and I V -F . It was assumed that the remaining 210, 000 male college students of draft age not in deferred or exempt classes as of m i d -1953 would be allowed, under present Selective Service policy, to remain in school until they graduate or drop out. In the absence of direct data on the Selective Service classification of studeiits, by age and college c la s s , it is im possible to gage the extent to which students in nondeferred classifications had been denied or had not applied for deferment and the extent to which they had not yet been processed for deferm en t.11 ’ Higher Education and National A ffairs, Bulletin No. 180, March 24, 1952. Am erican Council on Education, Washington, D. C. 10 U .S . Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P -2 0 , No. 52, School Enrollment, October 1953. 11 Because of the use of fall enrollment figures in con junction with a m id-year pool estim ate, this group probably includes a sizable number of draft-age men who - 3 6 - However, this assumption, which leads to a relatively con servative estimate of the pool, is generally consistent with what would appear to be the net effect of the various defer ment and postponement policies relating to college students. (See pp. 42 and 43.) 2. A rough allowance was made for the number of men in class I-A Not Examined who would qualify for hard ship deferments or who would have received fatherhood deferments between July 1, 1953, and August 25, 1953, when this ground for deferments was eliminated by a change in the Selective Service regulations. 3. Selective Service rejection experience understates the proportion of qualified men in the population, since this experience refers only to those reaching induction examina tion and excludes significant numbers of qualified men not exposed to examination because they are veterans or are currently serving in the Armed Forces. Therefore, in estimating the yield from groups not yet fully processed for induction, a rejection rate first was estimated for the popu lation. This rejection rate was derived from data from the Selective Service System1s 1 percent sample inventory of registrants and the Department of Defense. A tabulation of classification status by year of birth was used (for ages 22, 23, and 24) in deriving the rejection rate shown in table C. These ages were selected because men in them had been almost completely processed (the average age of induction in July 1953 was about 20 years) and had not passed age 25 (after which age Selective Service classification is somewhat obscure). The rejection rate was estimated by relating all men in these ages who are classified IV -F to all men who had been exposed to a pre-induction examination (i. e. , classes I-A Examined and Acceptable, I-C , I-D , I V -A ,1 2 and IV -F ). The remaining registrants were assigned a rejection rate based on this initial rejection rate modified by the particular enrolled in college for the first time in the fall and then became eligible for a deferred or postponed student classic fication. The same factor partially accounts for the difference between the estimated 150,000 ROTC students in class I-D and the much higher estimate of total ROTC enrollment. (This difference also reflects the enrollment in ROTC of students under draft age, veterans, and men in other Selective Service classes.) 1 2 N o a llo w a n c e could b e m ad e fo r so le su rv iv in g s o n s . T h is ra te m a y be m o d ifie d a s ad d ition al tabu lation s b e c o m e a v a ila b le . T a b le C .- D e r iv a tio n o f th e R e je c tio n in R a te fo r th e M a le P o p u la t io n A g ed 2 2 -2 k A p ril 1953 1/ ♦ , Class 5 Num ber in Class * Unfit for service : Num ber P o p u la tio n (a g e 22-21* y e a r s ) i n sam ple ...................... E x a m in e d ............... ........................................................................................ Q u a lif ie d fo r m ilit a r y s e r v ic e : U n r e g is t e r e d e n l i s t e e s 2 / .................................. .................. U n c l a s s i f i e d ..................................................................................... C la s s I - C ............................................................................................ C la s s IV - A .......................................................................................... P a r t ia lly q u a lif ie d : C la s s I- A * exam ined and a c c e p ta b le 3 / ......................... C la s s I - S * c o l le g e ..................................................................... C la s s I - D .................... ................................ ..................................... U n f it f o r s e r v i c e ( I V - F ) ............................................................ N o t e x a m in e d .............................................................................................. C la s s I - A .................................................................................. ............. C l a s s I - S * h ig h s c h o o l ................................................................. C la s s I I - A .............................................................................................. C la s s I I - C .............................................................................................. C la s s I I - S .............................................................................................. C la s s I I I - A ............................................................................................ C la s s e s I V - B , IV - C * IV -D ............................................................. I « Percent 1*0*289 8 ,8 5 3 22 33>039 7>3lU 22 1,1*81* 3U0 19*91*7 2 ,ll* 9 3U2 7 * 216 7*250 31a 8 161 380 91a. 5*080 339 - 0 0 0 0 20 6 72 7*216 100 1*339 102 2 33 93 113 1*118 7U 21 30 22 22 23 12 22 22 3 f 1f Derived from data from the the Selective Service System's 1 percent sample inventory and the Department of “Defense. This rate m be modified as additional tabulations become available and are analyzed. ay 2 / M w were not required to register since they were already in the service due to voluntary enlistment. en ho 3 / Includes I-A postponed* 1-0* and I-A -0. -38- characteristics of the men in the classification. For ex ample, a tabulation from the Selective Service Systeml s 1 percent sample inventory revealed that men aged 2 2-2 4 years who had been classified as II-S (students) at some time and who subsequently had some form of physical ex amination, experienced a rejection rate of about 11-12 percent. The derivation of the rejection rate is shown in table C. In applying a rejection rate to the I-A Not Examined group, the population rate was adjusted to allow for m em bers of the Arm ed F orces and veterans in each age, for those in class I -A Examined and Acceptable (less 5 percent), and for some reclassification into IV -F by local boards. The computed rejection rate for men in class I -A Not Examined in m id -1953 was 27 percent. This is reasonably consistent with recent Selective Service experience, after allowance for the noncomparable nature of the two rates. 4. No allowance was made for deductions from men in class I -A Not Examined for occupational or apprentice ship deferments since the numbers of men in these c la ssi fications have not increased over the past several months. Not Classified. --E s tim a te s of the number of unclassi fied men over 1 8 -1 /2 years of age were made from Selective Service data. A deduction (about 40 percent) was made from all unclassified men over 1 8 -1 /2 to take account of men in this category who had met their m ilitary obligationby enlistment prior to reaching age 1 8 -1 /2 and who register ed subsequent to leaving m ilitary s e r v ic e .13 The remain ing registrants in this group were slightly over 1 8 -1 /2 years of age and had the characteristics of the population of that age. The estimated numbers enrolled in high school or college were based on enrollment rates, by veteran status and age, for October 1952. A small allowance was also made for other deferments. II. Additions to the Selective Service Pool, F iscal Years 1953-55 Flows into the Selective Service pool come from two main sources: (a) men reaching draft age; and (b) students leaving school. Except for students, no allowances were made for inflows from de ferred cla sse s. There probably are some men who enter the pool 13 Derived from data obtained from the Selective Service SystemIs 1 percent sample inventory of registrants of April 1953. -39- after receiving dependency, occupational, National Guard, or other deferments. These entries may result from the lo ss of grounds for deferral or they may represent voluntary enlistment in the Arm ed F o rc es. It was assumed that these entries will be balanced by flows into deferred classes and that, consequently, there would be no net yield to the pool from this source. This assumption is supported by the relative stability in the size of the occupationally deferred classifications. Additions from 1 8 - 1 /2 - y e a r -o ld s .--T h e projected numbers of men reaching age 1 8 -1 /2 during each fiscal year (i. e. , those age 1 7 -1 /2 to 1 8 -1 /2 at the start of the year) were interpolated from Census Bureau projections of the population by single year of age. These data were adjusted to allow for Selective Service regis trants outside the Continental United States. Table D shows the derivation of the net yield to the pool from these inflows. No de duction was made for hardship deferments because this classification has not changed m aterially since the effective date of the executive order which eliminated all dependency deferments except in cases of extreme hardship. Because of the stability or actual decline in the size of the occupationally deferred classes in the past several months, no allowance was made for "occupational" deferments. Because of their eligibility for deferment or postponement, the estimated numbers of men who would be attending high school or college in the following year were subtracted from the 1 7 -1 /2 to 1 8 - 1 /2 - yea r-o ld s. (See below .) A rejection rate of 25 percent was applied to all nondeferred nonstudents reaching draft age. Since enlistments were not deducted from the base population before applying rejection rates, the popu lation rejection rate was used after adjustment for the lower rejection rate of college studenfs. On the basis of Defense Department estim ates, the number of able-bodied nondeferred 1 8 - 1 /2 - year-olds available to the pool was reduced by an allowance of 130, 000 for enlistments prior to reaching draft age and for a net loss of 30, 000 men obtaining de ferm ent as National Guardsmen. (Men enlisting in the National Guard before age 1 8 -1 /2 are eligible for deferment as long as they remain in the G uard.) Additions from students. — The number of high school students discontinuing their education each year was derived from differences in enrollment rates, by single year of age (based on Census data), applied to the projected population in each year. Office of Education data on high school graduations and first-tim e college enrollments for 1951-52 indicated that about half of the male high school gradu ates went on to college. Accordingly, discontinuations were es timated at about half the differences in high school enrollments, by single year of age. Table D.-Estim ated Additions to S elective Service Pool From 1 8 -1 /2 Year Oldsj F isca l Years 1953-60 (In thousands) ■ -- ------------- -------- 1 — ■ 1■ ............................ . ............ .—------- r ■ — • Item F isc a l Year .* 1 9 5 3 ! 1951* • ! • 1953 ! • 1 9 3 6 : 1937 ! • 1938 ! 1939 ! i 960 1>090 -330 (170) (160) 1,1 2 0 -3 ho (180) (160) 1,1 3 0 -3l*0 (180) (160) i ,i 5 o -330 ( 18 0 ) (170) 1 ,1 9 0 -3 6 0 (190) (170) 1,2 0 0 -370 (190) (180) 1 ,2 2 0 -3 7 0 (190) (180) 1,2 9 0 -390 ( 200 ) ( 190 ) Nondeferred nonstudents .................. ................................ Less: R ejections . ............................................ .. 760 -190 780 -200 790 -200 800 -200 830 -210 830 -210 83o -210 900 -230 Able-bodied men ......................................................... L ess: Enlistments under age l 8 - l / 2 ##* Reserves and National G u a r d .... 570 -130 - 30 580 -130 - 30 $90 -130 - 30 600 -130 - 30 620 -13 0 - 30 620 -130 - 30 61*0 -130 - 30 670 -130 - 30 1*10 1*20 1*30 l*l*o 1*60 1*60 1*80 310 Male population l/ ............................................................ • Less: Enrolled in school .................. .............................. High school ............................................................ C ollege ..................................................................... Net additions to pool * ............... 1/ Aged 1 7 -1 /2 to 1 8 -1 /2 at s ta rt o f each period. -4 1 - A rejection rate of 22 percent was applied to those form er high school students. (Armed F orces Qualifications Test failures account for a substantial proportion of all rejections. Since few high school men should be rejected for this reason, the population rejection rate was adjusted accordingly.) No other deductions were made from this group, since the allowances for occupational, dependency, and National Guard deferments were taken from the base population. In the absence of data on college and university enrollments by c la ss, it was necessary to derive estimates of dropouts and graduations from available data on first-tim e enrollments of male students. Estim ates of the number of male nonveteran freshmen could not be constructed for years prior to 1951 because of the in clusion of unknown, but probably significant, numbers of World War II veterans in first-tim e enrollments. An estimate of 240, 000 male nonveteran fu ll-tim e freshmen students in the fall of 1953 was de rived from Office of Education data on total first-tim e male enrollments by subtracting allowances for "K o re a n " veterans and part-tim e students.14 The ratio of this 1953 fu ll-tim e, nonveteran, m ale freshman class to the male population 18 years of age in 1953 was used to estimate freshman enrollment from 1953 to 1960. Rough estimates of the "n o rm a l" dropout rates, as estimated by the Office of Education, indicate that the average college "dropout" has completed about 2 years of college at the time he discontinues his education and that only about half of the freshman class graduate from college. Accordingly, the dropouts were estimated at half the freshman c la s s , all of which were assumed to occur 2 years after their entry into college. The remaining half of the freshm en graduate 4 years after entering college. This method of estimating the numbers of students who will be added to the Selective Service pool each year is supported by data from the Selective Service Systemts 1 percent sample inventory of registrants. Of the registrants aged 2 1 -2 2 -2 3 (age groups con taining the greatest numbers of registrants deferred as students) who were classified as II-S on April 30, 1952, only about half still held those classifications 1 year later. Of the remainder, alm ost none of the physically qualified men had classifications indicating that they would not be available for service. Furtherm ore, only about 3 percent of all registrants ever classified as II-S are over age 26. 14 Prelim inary data from the Office of Education indicate that about 37 percent of the fu ll-tim e "K orean " veterans enrolled in the fall of 1953 were freshmen. These data also indicated that about 16 percent of all nonveteran, first time students were attending college part-tim e. -42- A sm all allowance was deducted from dropouts and graduates for those who might receive occupational or hardship deferments and a 12-percent rejection rate was applied to the nondeferred students. (See p. 3 8 .) In the estimates of college discontinuations, no allowance was made for the effects of the draft. The various possibilities for defer ment or postponement open to college students under present legisla tion and regulations imply that nearly all college students could con tinue their education until they either graduate or drop out of school for reasons not associated with the draft. M oreover, so long as men are not inducted before age 19, normal numbers of male high school graduates should be able to enter college. Current provisions for deferment or postponement of college students are summarized below: a. A ll fu ll-tim e college students not otherwise subject to deferment must be deferred by statute until the end of the academic year during which they are first called up for induction. b. National Headquarters of the Selective Service System has recommended to the local draft boards a set of deferment standards based on class standing or on college qualification test scores. Undergraduates scoring 70 or higher are to be considered for defer ment as long as they remain students in good stand ing. A freshman who completes his first year in the upper half of the male portion of his class is recommended for deferment through the sophomore year. Sim ilarly, a sophomore in the upper two-thirds of his class or a junior in the upper three-fourths is considered for deferment through the subsequent year. Under these standards, eligibility for deferment as a graduate student is based on a test score of 75 or higher, or graduation in the upper half of the cla ss. The combined effect of the class-standing-test score deferment criteria is to make eligible for deferment a very high proportion of all students. Of the 340, 000 students who took the Selective Service college quali fication test during the spring and summer of 1951, 35 percent of those who finished their freshman year in the lower half of their class achieved test scores above the minimum needed for deferment. -43- c. ROTC students who agree to accept a reserve com m is sion - - i f offered--and undertake certain obligations for active and inactive service are deferred until they graduate. The proportion of students who would be permitted, under a literal application of the present deferment and postponement policy, to continue in school from one year to the next are generally consistent with pre-W orld War II college dropout rates estimated by the Office of Education. According to these esti m ates, about half of all freshmen students dropped out before graduation. To the extent that dropout rates under conditions of high employment may be below those experienced in the 1930‘ s there may be small numbers of students who will be drawn into m ilitary service before they would otherwise graduate or drop out. There also may be significant numbers who are eligible for deferment but who discontinue their education for other reasons. On the other hand, the availability of deferments may prolong the period of education for other students. In the absence of any data bearing on the operation of these factors, it was assumed that total enrollments of male nonveteran students would increase with the population in school ages. Deductions for ROTC graduates who will be called to active service were made on the basis of Defense Department requirements estim ates. (ROTC enrollees not completing the requirements for reserve com m issions were included in the estimate of student discontinuations.) -4 4 - PUBLICATIONS OF THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS ON MANPOWER AND OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK Studies of employment trends and opportunities in the various occupations and professions are made available by the Occupational Outlook Service of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These reports are for use in the vocational guidance of veterans, in counseling young people in schools, and in guiding others con sidering the choice of an occupation. Schools concerned with voca tional training and employers and trade unions interested in on-the-job training have also found the reports helpful in planning programs in line with prospective employment opportunities. Unless otherwise designated, bulletins are for sale by the Superintendent of Documents at price indicated. Address your order to the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. , with remittance by check or money order. Currency is sent at sender's risk. Postage stamps are not accepted. Those reports which are listed as free may be obtained directly from the U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington 25, D. C. , as long as the supply lasts. Occupational Outlook Bulletins Occupational Outlook Handbook - Employment information on Major Occupations for Use in Guidance. Bulletin No. 998 (1951 Rev. E d .). U lus. $ 3. Includes brief reports on m ore than 400 occupations of interest in vocational guidance, including professions; skilled trades; clerical, sales, and service occupations; and the major types of farming. Each report describes the employment trends and outlook, the training qualifications required, earnings, and working con ditions. Introductory sections summarize the major trends in population and employment and in the broad industrial and occu pational groups, as a background for an understanding of the indi vidual occupations. The Handbook is designed for use in counseling, in classes or units on occupations, in the training of counselors, and as a general reference. Its 575 pages are illustrated with 103 photographs and 85 charts. -4 5 Bulletin No. 944 961 968 Supp. to 968 Supp. to 972 994 1010 1020 1048 1050 1054 1072 Employment Outlook in Electric Light and Power Occupations. (1948) 49 pp............................................... 30 cents Employment Outlook in Railroad Occupations. (1949) 52 pp. n i u s ................................ 35 cents Employment Outlook for Engineers. (1949) 119 pp. I l l u s ............................ 60 cents Effect of Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Engineering. (1951) 10 pp............................................... 15 cents Effect of Defense Program on Em ployment Situation in Elementary and Secondary School Teaching. (1951) 14 pp............................................... 15 cents Employment Outlook in Petroleum Production and Refining. (1950) 52 pp. nius ................................ 30 cents Employment Outlook in M en's Tailored Clothing Industry. (1951) 32 pp. n i u s ............................... 25 cents Employment in Department Stores. (1951) 23 pp. n iu s................................ 20 cents Employment Outlook in Accounting (1952) 32 pp. n i u s ............................ 20 cents Employment Outlook for Earth Scientists. (1952) 38 p p ........................................... 30 cents Employment Outlook in the Merchant Marine. (1952) 38 pp. Illu s................................ 30 cents Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufac tur ing. (1952) 30 pp. n i u s .................................. 25 cents P rice -4 6 - Bulletin No. 1126 1128 1129 1130 1131 1138 1144 1156 P rice Employment Outlook in Printing Occupations. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Handbook. (1953) 31 pp. I l l u s ................................ 25 cents Employment Outlook in A ir Trans portation. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Hand book. (1953) 22 pp. Illus................................... 20 cents Employment Outlook for Mechanics . and Repairmen. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Hand book. (1953) 26 pp. ILlus............................... 20 cents Employment Outlook in Metalworking Occupations. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Handbook. (1953) 39 pp. Illus................................... 30 cents Employment Outlook .for Technicians. A Report on Draftsmen, Engineering A id s, Laboratory Technicians, and Electronic Technicians. (I9 5 3 > 2 9 p p . Illus................................... 25 cents Employment Outlook in the Auto mobile Industry. (1953) 33pp. Illus................................... 25 cents Employment Outlook for P hysicists. (1953) 24 pp. Illus 25 cents Employment Outlook in Banking Occupations. (1954) 42 pp. Illus................................... 30 cents -47- Special Reports Occupational Outlook Information Series for States. 1940 Census information. Specify State desired. Supply exhausted for Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Veterans Administration Pamphlet 7 -2 . 1947. Each 10 cents Bulletin No. 1 0 0 1 1027 1092 1117 1119 1120 1121 1132 Tables of Working L ife. Length of Working Life for Men. (August 1950) 74 p p ....................... . 40 cents Employment, Education, and Earnings of Am erican Men of Science. (1951) 48 p p ......................................... 45 cents Employment and Economic Status of Older Men and Women. (May 1952) 58 pp................................... 30 cents Federal W hite-Collar W orkers Their Occupations and Salaries, June 1951. (1952) 43 p p ........................................... 15 cents Negroes in the United States: Their Employment and Economic Status. (1952) 60 p p ........................................... 30 cents The Mobility of Tool and Die M akers, 1940-1951. (1952) 67 p p ........................................... 35 cents Occupational Mobility of Scientists. A study of Chemists, Biologists, and Physicists with Ph. D. D egrees. (1953) 63 p p ........................................... 35 cents Manpower Resources in Chemistry and Chemical Engineering. (1953) 112 p p ....................................... 50 cents -4 8 - Bulletin No. 1148 Price 50 cents The Mobility of Electronic Technicians, 1940-1952. (1954) 79 pp. ...................................... 50 cents Occupational Planning and College A leaflet addressed to college men or those planning to go to college. (1954) 20 pp.......................................... 1150 Scientific Research and Develop ment in Am erican Industry. A study of Manpower C osts. (1953) i06 p p ........................................... 10 cents Miscellaneous Reports Employment Opportunities for Counselors in Secondary and Elementary Schools. (May 1951) 8 p p . ........................................................... F ree Employment Opportunities for Student Personnel Workers in Colleges and U niversities. (May 1951) 26 p p ........................................................... F ree Elementary and Secondary School Principal ships. (May 1951) 11 pp . . ................................................... F ree Employment, Education, and Income of Engineers, 1949-1950. (November 1952) 48 p p .............................................. F ree MANPOWER REPORTS OF THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The following manpower reports published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are available free of charge except where, as noted, the supply has been exhausted. Those not listed are re stricted for security reasons. Requests for these publications, -4 9 - specifying exact titles, should be addressed to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Department of Labor, Washington 25, D. C. Manpower Report No. 3 The Nation*s Scientific and Technical Manpower. December 1950. 4 Training Needs for Engineering, Science, and Health Professions in a Defense Economy. March 1951 (Exhausted.) 7 Projected Manpower Requirements and Supply for the Defense P rogram , 19511952. (Exhausted.) 8 Manpower Requirements of the Machine Tool Industry in the Current Mobili zation Program . August 1951. 10 Manpower Requirements for the Merchant Marine. September 1951. 11 Manpower Requirements in Metal Mining. October 1951. (Exhausted.) 12 Defense Manpower Requirements in Electronics Production. February 1952. (Exhausted.) 13 The Effects of the Defense Program on Employment in the Automobile Industry. January 1952. 14 Projected Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1952-1953. January 1952. 15 Manpower Implications of the Defense Construction Program . (Prepared in the Bureau* s Division of Construction Statistics.) (Exhausted.) 16 Manpower Requirements in the A ircraft Industry. June 1952. (Exhausted.) 17 Manpower Requirements in the Production of M ilitary Weapons. August 1952. U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTIN G OFFICE: O — 1954
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