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Mid-Session Review
Budget of the U.S. Government

Fiscal Year 2011

Office of Management and Budget
www.budget.gov

Mid-Session Review
Budget of the U.S. Government

Fiscal Year 2011

Office of Management and Budget
www.budget.gov

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON D. C. 20503

THE DIRECTOR

July 23, 2010

The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Speaker of the House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20510
Dear Madam Speaker:
Section 1106 of Title 31, United States Code, requests that the President send to the Congress
a supplemental update of the Budget that was transmitted to the Congress earlier in the year.
This supplemental update of the Budget, commonly known as the Mid-Session Review, contains
revised estimates of receipts, outlays, budget authority, and the budget deficit for fiscal years
2010 through 2020.
Sincerely,

Peter R. Orszag
Director

Enclosure

Identical Letter Sent to the President of the Senate

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
List of Tables...........................................................................................................................................

iii

Summary..................................................................................................................................................

1

Economic Assumptions............................................................................................................................

7

Receipts..................................................................................................................................................

13

Expenditures..........................................................................................................................................

15

Summary Tables....................................................................................................................................

19

i

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.

Page
Change in Deficits from the February Budget............................................................... 6

Table 2.

Economic Assumptions....................................................................................................

9

Table 3.

Comparison of Economic Assumptions.........................................................................

10

Table 4.

Change in Receipts........................................................................................................

14

Table 5.

Change in Outlays.........................................................................................................

18

Table S–1.

Budget Totals.................................................................................................................

20

Table S–2.

Effect of Budget Proposals on Projected Deficits.........................................................

21

Table S–3.

Baseline Projection of Current Policy by Category......................................................

23

Table S–4.

Proposed Budget by Category.......................................................................................

25

Table S–5.

Proposed Budget by Category as a Percent of GDP.....................................................

27

Table S–6.

Proposed Budget by Category Adjusted for Inflation and Population Growth...........

29

Table S–7.

Bridge from Budget Enforcement Act Baseline to Baseline Projection
of Current Policy............................................................................................................

31

Table S–8.

Change in the Baseline Projection of Current Policy from Budget to MSR...............

32

Table S–9.

Mandatory and Receipt Proposals................................................................................

34

Table S–10.

Funding Levels for Appropriated (“Discretionary”) Programs by Category...............

47

Table S–11.

Funding Levels for Appropriated (“Discretionary”) Programs by Agency..................

49

Table S–12.

Outlays for Mandatory Programs Under Current Law...............................................

52

Table S–13.

Market Valuation and Balance Sheet of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.....................

53

Table S–14.

Federal Government Financing and Debt....................................................................

54

iii

SUMMARY
The economy now is markedly different
from what it was at the beginning of the
President’s term, 18 months ago. In January
of 2009, the economy was on the brink of a
potentially severe depression, precipitated by
an era of irresponsibility marked by excessive
risk-taking in, lax oversight of, and an eventual meltdown in the country’s credit and
capital markets. The result was a severe and
rapid economic contraction, the collapse of the
financial markets, and damaging and painful
job losses. More than 750,000 jobs were lost
just in the first month of 2009, 3.7 million
were lost in the first half of that year, and 8.4
million were lost between the beginning of the
recession, at the end of 2007, and the beginning of the recovery.
At its start, then, the Administration faced
a gap between what the economy could be
producing and what it was producing: a
difference of $1 trillion or approximately 7
percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In
addition, the country faced historic budget
deficits and an unsustainable fiscal trajectory. No longer was the Nation expecting to
enjoy the surpluses projected at the beginning of the last decade. Instead, upon taking
office, the President was presented with a
budget deficit for 2009 estimated to be $1.3
trillion, or 9.2 percent of GDP. The previous Administration’s decisions not to pay for
three large domestic initiatives (the tax cuts
of 2001 and 2003 and the Medicare prescription drug benefit of 2003), along with the
effects of the economic collapse and the steps
needed to combat it, produced an historically
large ten-year deficit of more than $8 trillion.
Even this large amount did not account for
the depth or duration of the recession, and
the ten-year deficit projections grew by an
additional $2 trillion as the severity of the
downturn became fully apparent.
The Administration moved swiftly to prevent the economy from falling into a second
Great Depression. To stimulate demand and
jumpstart economic growth, the President
signed into law the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act of 2009. The Recovery Act
provided tax cuts to small businesses and
95 percent of working families and helped to

lay a new foundation for long-term economic
growth and prosperity with investments in
health care, education, infrastructure, and
clean energy. The Recovery Act has had a
demonstrable and significant effect on the
economy, raising real GDP as of the second
quarter of 2010 by an estimated 2.7 to 3.2
percent relative to what it otherwise would
have been, and increasing employment by
an estimated 2.5 to 3.6 million. The Nation’s
economy has grown for three consecutive
quarters and created nearly 600,000 private
sector jobs in the first half of this year—a
stark contrast to the 3.7 million lost over
the first half of last year. In fact, after 22
straight months of job loss, the economy
has created jobs in the private sector for
six months in a row. In addition, other
economic indicators are showing signs of
improvement. Industrial production (which
primarily reflects manufacturing), real disposable income, shipments of capital goods,
and U.S. exports have all improved.
Despite these hopeful signs, the economy is
still struggling; too many Americans are still
out of work; and the Nation’s long-term fiscal trajectory is unsustainable, threatening
future prosperity. Building on the steps the
Administration and the Congress have already taken, the Administration’s proposals,
reflected in the Mid-Session Review (MSR),
seek to speed the recovery, keep the economy
growing, and put the country on more sound
fiscal footing.
Sparking Job Creation and
Economic Growth
In order to provide relief and augment the
positive effects of the Recovery Act, the 2011
Budget proposed specific recovery measures
as well as an allowance for additional recovery efforts. Since the release of the Budget
in February, the Administration has worked
with the Congress to enact a number of these
measures. On March 18, the President signed
into law the Hiring Incentives to Restore
Employment (HIRE) Act. This Act eliminates
the employer’s share of payroll taxes for the
remainder of this calendar year for those
businesses that hire workers who have been
1

2
unemployed or underemployed for at least two
months, provides a credit to those businesses
that retain new workers for at least one year,
allows small businesses to depreciate immediately the full cost of equipment purchases
made this calendar year, allows municipal
governments to acquire the needed financing
for schools and clean energy projects through
Build America Bonds, and provides resources
for investments in transportation infrastructure. In addition, the President signed into law
the Temporary Extension Act of 2010 on March
2 and the Continuing Extension Act of 2010 on
April 15, which, among other things, extended
unemployment insurance (UI) benefits and
COBRA health insurance premium assistance.
To further help the recovery, the Administration is also working with the Congress
to quickly pass legislation that will maintain
extended UI benefits for those individuals
hardest hit by the economic downturn. As
of early July, more than 2 million laid-off
workers had lost their unemployment benefits
due to a lack of Congressional action on a bill
to continue unemployment insurance benefits
for those experiencing extended episodes of
unemployment. Extended unemployment
insurance will do more than provide relief
to those hardest hit by the recession; it will
put money in the hands of those most likely
to spend it, leading to increased consumption
of goods and services, and subsequent
business growth and hiring. That is why
the Congressional Budget Office and other
independent institutions have identified
extended unemployment benefits as among
the most effective short-term measures to
support the economic recovery.
To help states struggling to make ends
meet, the Administration supports a sixmonth, $21.7 billion extension of the
temporary increases in the Federal matching
percentages for State Medicaid expenditures as well as $25 billion to prevent the
firing of teachers, firefighters, and police officers along with accountability measures for
those funds. To assist small businesses that
are still having trouble accessing capital,
which is critical to their growth and ability
to hire, the Administration supports a $30
billion lending fund, a State Small Business
Credit Initiative to bolster innovative State
small business programs, and enhancements to Small Business Administration

MID-SESSION REVIEW

lending programs including higher loan
limits. To encourage new investment, the
Administration calls for the elimination of
capital gains taxes on certain small business investments and the acceleration of the
depreciation allowance for new investment
for all businesses. To bolster the residential
improvement industry and promote energy
efficiency, the Administration urges passage
of its Home Star program to provide $6 billion in direct rebates to consumers for home
weatherization. And to help hard-working
families through this difficult time as well as
to stimulate the economy, the Administration
proposes to extend the Making Work Pay
tax credit for one year, which will benefit 95
percent of working families.
In addition to the specific proposals to promote job growth detailed above, the MSR
reflects an allowance for further jobs initiatives of $50 billion. The February Budget
included an allowance of $100 billion. With
the subsequent enactment of the HIRE Act,
and the specification in the MSR of jobs initiatives that had not been previously specified
in February, such as the $25 billion fund to
prevent the firing of teachers, firefighters,
and police officers, total support in the MSR
for jobs initiatives remains at the level of
the February Budget. The Administration
believes that the remaining $50 billion allowance will provide flexibility to support
additional job growth.
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility
In the short term, the Administration is
working to speed up the recovery and keep
the economy growing. Looking to the medium
and long term as the economy recovers, the
Administration is taking steps to strengthen
the Government’s fiscal outlook and restore
fiscal responsibility to Washington. The 2011
Budget contained more than $1 trillion in
deficit reduction over ten years, including a
three-year freeze on non-security discretionary spending; an end to subsidies for oil, gas,
and coal companies and other tax loopholes;
and the expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax
cuts for those making more than $250,000 a
year. The Administration also proposed in the
Budget to terminate or reduce 126 programs,
generating $23 billion in savings in 2011 alone.
Augmenting these proposed efficiencies, the
Administration has moved aggressively to

SUMMARY

curtail the $110 billion in improper payments
made by the Federal Government each year,
save $40 billion through contracting reform by
2012, improve how funds are spent on information technology projects and terminate those
that have little prospect for success, and begin
to dispose of unneeded Federal real property.
Since the release of the Budget in February,
the President also has moved to improve the
budget process, restoring responsibility and
empowering policymakers with the tools to
help reduce unnecessary or wasteful spending.
On February 12, 2010, the President signed
the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act, which sets
in law the simple proposition that Congress
should pay for what it spends. Specifically,
it requires that enacted legislation that increases mandatory spending or reduces tax
revenues be offset by other legislation that either reduces mandatory spending or increases
governmental receipts. This law restores the
“pay-as-you-go” requirement that was in place
during the 1990s and contributed toward creating the surpluses of that era.
On May 24, 2010, the Administration submitted to the Congress the Reduce Unnecessary
Spending Act of 2010 to establish a new tool
to reduce unnecessary or wasteful spending. Under this new expedited procedure,
the President could submit to the Congress a
package of rescissions shortly after a spending law is enacted. The Congress would be
required to consider these recommendations
as a package, without amendment, and with
a guaranteed up-or-down vote within a specified timeframe. This new expedited rescission
authority would empower the President and
the Congress to eliminate unnecessary spending while discouraging waste in the first place.
It would be particularly effective in reining in
programs that are heavily earmarked or not
merit-based as well as those that are clearly
wasteful and duplicative.
The Administration is also demanding responsibility from the financial sector. As a
result of improved financial conditions and
careful stewardship, the expected cost of the
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) continues to fall. In August 2009, the Administration
projected that TARP—which permitted up
to $700 billion in Government financial assistance to be outstanding at any given
time—would ultimately cost a total of $341

3
billion; today, that cost is over $225 billion
lower. While the Administration is pleased
that the cost of the TARP program is much
less than first estimated, shared responsibility requires that the financial firms pay back
the taxpayer for the extraordinary action taken to prevent a deeper financial crisis. When
the Congress wrote the legislation authorizing TARP in the fall of 2008, it required that
the President propose a way for the financial
sector to pay back taxpayers so that not one
penny of TARP-related debt is passed on to
the next generation of Americans. That is
why the President has proposed a Financial
Crisis Responsibility Fee on the largest financial firms. The proposed fee would remain in
place for at least ten years and is estimated to
raise $90 billion over that time.
The most recent step toward financial sector
reform is enactment of the Dodd-Frank Wall
Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
This law will restrict risky financial activities, hold financial firms accountable for the
risks they take, and protect consumers from
abusive credit practices. Because this law was
enacted so recently, it is not reflected in the
MSR’s outlay and receipt estimates; however,
the Congressional Budget Office estimates
the law to provide $3.2 billion in savings over
the ten-year budget window.
Finally, since the biggest driver of deficits
in the long-term is the rising cost of health
care, the most important step taken to contribute to the long-term fiscal sustainability
of the Nation has been the enactment of the
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
on March 23, as amended by the Health Care
and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 on
March 30, and collectively referred to as the
Affordable Care Act. The Affordable Care Act
provides middle-class tax credits for health
care and reduces health insurance premiums
for comparable coverage for both families and
small businesses. It also establishes health
insurance exchanges to provide health insurance options to Americans that are the same
as the options given to Members of Congress,
and it ends discrimination against those
Americans who have pre-existing health conditions. In addition, the Affordable Care Act
helps to prevent excessive premium increases
and improper denials of coverage, and prohibits arbitrary rescissions of policies and annual
and lifetime benefit limits.

4

MID-SESSION REVIEW

From a fiscal standpoint, the Affordable
Care Act will—according to the Congressional
Budget Office—reduce the deficit by more
than $100 billion over the next ten years and
more than $1 trillion over the subsequent ten
years. Moreover, it puts in place important
mechanisms to both improve quality and reduce cost, such as the Independent Payment
Advisory Board, the excise tax on expensive
health care plans, and reforms that seek to
transform the health care system into one
that pays for the quality rather than the quantity of treatments. The Affordable Care Act
includes the most auspicious set of changes
ever enacted to reduce the rate of health care
cost growth over the long term, which is critical to the fiscal health of the country. Recent
Congressional Budget Office long-term projections indicate that full implementation
of the Affordable Care Act would reduce the
long-term fiscal gap by between 2 and 3 percent of GDP. The Administration is working
both expeditiously and carefully to implement
the Affordable Care Act.

the Commission’s recommendations will be
annual deficits that are approximately equal
to 3 percent of GDP. Deficits of this size will
stabilize the ratio of debt to GDP. Most economists consider this to be necessary for fiscal
sustainability as debt and interest payments
rise only as much as economic growth, rather
than rising as a share of output and the budget over time. Stabilizing the debt-to-GDP
ratio also will allow the United States to fulfill
the commitment it made to the G-20 Nations
in Toronto in June regarding sovereign debt.

Even with the deficit reduction measures that
this Administration has enacted and proposed,
the Nation remains on an unsustainable fiscal course. In the medium term, the economic
recovery and the Administration’s policies will
reduce the deficit from 10 percent of GDP today to 4 percent by the middle of the decade.
This is the largest and fastest deficit reduction to occur since World War II, but the deficit
would still remain undesirably high. And while,
over the long term, the Affordable Care Act will
help significantly to reduce deficits, health care
costs are still expected to continue to consume a
growing share of the Federal budget for decades
to come. In addition, the aging of the population
will add to the fiscal pressure the Government
already faces because of the irresponsibility of
the past and the fiscal pressure it will continue
to face in coming decades.

Receipts for 2010 are now projected to be
$33 billion lower than projected in February
for a total of $2.132 trillion, or 14.5 percent
of GDP. For 2011, receipts are now projected to be $141 billion lower than projected in
February for a total of $2.426 trillion, or 15.8
percent of GDP. Two-thirds of the reduction
in receipts for 2011 result from technical
reestimates, which reflect actual tax collections so far in 2010, tax model revisions, and
updated taxable wage base data from employer tax returns. The next most significant
factor in the downward reestimate of 2011
receipts is the reestimate of Administration
policy proposals contained in the MSR. This
results largely from the assumption of later
enactment of a number of tax relief measures—such as accelerated depreciation for
new business investment—than assumed in
the Budget, which shifts revenue loss from
2010 to 2011.

Because of the unsustainable nature of the
Government’s medium- and long-term fiscal
outlook and the importance of bringing all
sides in Washington together to tackle this serious problem, the President established the
bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform. The Commission
will make recommendations to balance
the Government’s annual program spending with receipts by 2015, achieving what is
known as “primary balance.” The result of

MID-SESSION UPDATE
The Mid-Session Review updates estimates
of Federal receipts, outlays, and the deficit
to reflect legislation enacted through July
2, 2010, including action on the President’s
Budget proposals, and policy, economic, and
technical changes that have occurred since
the Budget was released.
Receipts

Just as receipts for the current and budget years are now projected to be somewhat
lower than projected in the Budget, receipts
for 2012 through 2017 are also projected to
be lower. This downward reestimate is generally shrinking over time and ranges from a
reduction of $112 billion in 2012 to $11 billion
in 2017. For 2018 through 2020, receipts are
projected to be slightly higher than projected

SUMMARY

in the Budget. Overall, total receipts are projected to be $391 billion lower for the 2011 to
2015 budget horizon and $402 billion lower
for the 2011 to 2020 budget horizon.
Outlays
Outlays for 2010 are now projected to be
$118 billion lower than projected in February
for a total of $3.603 trillion, or 24.6 percent
of GDP. The reduction is due in large part to
lower outlay estimates for unemployment and
deposit insurance, and non-defense discretionary programs. Outlays for 2011 are now
projected to be $3.842 trillion, essentially unchanged from the Budget projection, or 25.1
percent of GDP.
Starting in 2012 and continuing through
the budget horizon, outlays are projected to
be slightly lower than projected in February,
with the reductions through 2015 resulting
primarily from reductions in interest payments and the reductions after 2015 resulting
primarily from lower entitlement program
spending, including Medicare spending. The
size of the downward reestimate in outlays
fluctuates over the outyears, with the reduction ranging from $22 billion to $87 billion.
Deficits
Because of the lower outlays now projected
for 2010, the deficit for 2010 is expected to be
$1.471 trillion, $84 billion lower than projected in February. The 2010 deficit is projected to
be 10.0 percent of GDP, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than projected in February
and about the same as the 2009 level.
For 2011, the deficit is projected to decline
from the 2010 level to $1.416 trillion, or 9.2
percent of GDP, $150 billion higher than
projected in February. This reestimate is primarily because of the reduction in projected
receipts. For 2012, the deficit is also projected to be slightly higher than projected in

5
February, equal to 5.6 percent of GDP, again
because of the reduction in projected receipts.
Beginning in 2013, the deficit projections are not significantly different from
the February projections, with the deficits
ranging from 3.4 to 4.3 percent of GDP for
the remaining years. The deficit projections
show that the budget is still on track to
meet the President’s goal of cutting the deficit, as a percent of GDP, in half by the end
of his first term. The deficit the President
inherited on January 20, 2009, was equal to
9.2 percent of GDP and the deficit for 2013
is projected to be equal to 4.3 percent of
GDP. In addition, the budget is on track to
fulfill the United States’ commitment at the
G-20 Toronto Summit in June, which was to
cut the current deficit (10.0 percent of GDP
for 2010) in half by 2013. These MSR deficit projections do not take into account the
additional deficit reduction tasked to the
Fiscal Commission.
Debt held by the public, which can be viewed
as the sum of all prior deficits, is projected to
be $9.2 trillion at the end of 2010, or 62.7 percent of GDP. Some Government debt that is
held by the public was issued to acquire financial assets as part of TARP. Debt held by the
public net of these and other financial assets
is projected to be $8.1 trillion, or 55.1 percent
of GDP, at the end of 2010.
For 2011, debt held by the public is projected to rise to $10.6 trillion, or 68.9
percent of GDP, and to continue increasing
throughout the ten-year budget horizon to
a projected 77.4 percent of GDP in 2020.
Similarly, debt net of financial assets is projected to increase to 61.9 percent of GDP in
2011 and to increase gradually each year
thereafter to 69.2 percent of GDP in 2020.
As noted above for deficit projections, these
debt projections do not take into account the
additional deficit reduction tasked to the
Fiscal Commission.

6

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table 1. CHANGE IN DEFICITS FROM THE FEBRUARY BUDGET
(In billions of dollars)
20112010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20112015 2020
February Budget deficit �������������������������������������������� 1,556 1,267 828 727 706 752 778 778 785 908 1,003
Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������������������ 10.6% 8.3% 5.1% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2%
Enacted legislation and policy changes:
Affordable Care Act ���������������������������������������
Preservation of Access to Care for Medicare
Beneficiaries and Pension Relief Act ��������
Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act ���
Other legislation and policy changes �����������
Debt service ����������������������������������������������������

2

26

23

–5

–17

–2

–3

3

–*

–4

–8

Subtotal, policy changes ���������������������������������������

1
–2
–6
–*
–5

–*
1
20
*
48

–6
6
–3
1
22

–7
–4
–6
2
–21

–8
–5
–22
1
–51

–8
–5
–1
–1
–17

–9
–6
15
–1
–4

–10
–6
–1
–1
–15

–10
–7
2
–2
–18

–11
–9
–2
–3
–30

–12
–12
8
–5
–28

–29 –82
–7 –46
–11
11
3 –10
–19 –114

Economic and technical reestimates:
Receipts ����������������������������������������������������������
Discretionary programs ���������������������������������

38
–30

124
17

99
11

72
6

32
2

22
1

14
3

5
5

–11
2

–22
2

–33
2

349
37

302
51

–4
–34
–9
–1
–18
–1

–3
–17
10
–11
11
–*

4
–9
1
–7
14
–1

2
–7
2
–5
3
*

–8
–7
2
12
–1
1

–4
–6
3
8
–6
2

–17
–6
3
–1
–11
2

–13
–5
3
–5
–16
2

–7
–4
3
–4
21
2

–16
–3
4
–4
3
2

–13
–2
4
–4
*
2

–9
–46
18
–3
21
2

–75
–66
37
–21
18
13

*
–10
–8

*
–3
5

1
*
–4

1
2
6

*
2
39

–1
2
24

–3
2
6

–4
1
–10

–3
–1
–*
* ......... .........
–15 –19 –28

1
4
69

–11
7
4

Subtotal, economic and technical reestimates �����

–83
–3
–1
–79

–8
–30
–1
102

1
–49
–*
61

5
–53
–*
30

40
–31
–*
43

21
–16
–*
27

Total, changes ������������������������������������������������������������

–84

150

83

9

–8

10

Mandatory programs:
Medicare �����������������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �������������������
Veterans Compensation and Pension ��������
Medicaid �����������������������������������������������������
Deposit insurance ���������������������������������������
Social Security ��������������������������������������������
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program ��������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program ������������������
Other �����������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ���������������
Net interest 1 ��������������������������������������������������
Allowance for future disaster costs ���������������

13

–25 –47
–6 –34 –40
58 –94
–9
–5
–2
–2
–4 –179 –202
–* ......... ......... ......... .........
–2
–2
–16 –42 –17 –56 –75 262
56
–20

–57

–36

–86 –103

Mid-Session Review deficit ��������������������������������������� 1,471 1,416 911 736 698 762 758 721 749 822 900
Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������������������ 10.0% 9.2% 5.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8%
Note: positive figures represent higher outlays or lower receipts.
* $500 million or less.
1
Includes debt service on all reestimates.

25

243

–58

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
This Mid-Session Review (MSR) updates the
economic forecast from the 2011 Budget. The
Budget forecast, completed last November and
released with the Budget in early February,
projected that the increase in output that began in the second half of 2009 would continue
during 2010 and 2011 and that unemployment would fall gradually from its elevated
levels.
Output growth had just begun to appear
in the economic data at the time of the
previous forecast, but it is now well established. Industrial production, retail sales,
and shipments and orders for capital goods
are all substantially higher than they were
in the worst months of 2009. There have
been three consecutive quarters of positive
real GDP growth since 2009:Q2, and real
GDP almost certainly continued to increase
in 2010:Q2.
While the economy has begun adding
jobs—with private sector employment increasing in each of the past six months—
labor market recovery is occurring only
gradually. Unemployment has fallen 0.6
percentage points from its peak in October
2009, but remains above 9 percent. While
the 147,000 jobs per month that have been
added on average over the past six months
is a major improvement from the job losses
of 750,000 per month the economy was experiencing in early 2009, it will take many
months of job growth to offset the 8.4 million
jobs that were lost between December 2007
and December 2009.
Two policy initiatives are driving this
resumption of economic growth and job creation. The Recovery Act provides stimulus in
the form of tax reductions, support for State
and local government budgets, and increases
in Federal spending, all serving to mitigate
the severity of the downturn. The Council
of Economic Advisers estimates that the
Recovery Act has raised real GDP, as of the
second quarter of 2010, by between 2.7 and
3.2 percent and employment by between 2.5
and 3.6 million compared with what would
have happened in the absence of the recovery measures. These estimates are similar to

those of the Congressional Budget Office and
other analysts. Also, aggressive actions by the
Federal Reserve and the Department of the
Treasury have stabilized financial markets
while helping to unlock household and business access to credit.
The economy has responded to these policy
actions. Real GDP, for instance, has expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent over the
most recent three quarters, and real consumer spending and business fixed investment
are both expanding again. So far in 2010,
payroll employment in the private sector has
increased by 593,000 jobs. Total payroll employment has increased more, but some of
this represents hiring for the 2010 Census,
which has already begun to unwind. Another
indicator of labor market repair is the 2.9 percent annual rate of growth in hours worked
since December 2009. Business spending on
equipment and software has risen at a 10.4
percent annual rate since the second quarter of 2009, as businesses have responded to
the improved sales outlook. Moreover, sales
of motor vehicles, after plunging in 2008
and 2009, are up 21 percent from a low in
February 2009—and auto companies are
making profits once again.
Despite these positive developments, the
U.S. economy still faces strong headwinds.
First, financial market uncertainty has hampered credit creation since 2007. Spreads
between private debt, such as commercial
paper, and Treasury securities have returned
to pre-crisis levels, but commercial banks and
other private lenders have tightened credit
standards and many credit-worthy borrowers still have difficulty finding credit. Still,
after declining in every month since October
2008, commercial and industrial loans at the
Nation’s banks increased in June.
Second, although the housing market is
showing signs of stabilizing, there is a large
overhang of unsold property, which is holding back new construction. At current sales
rates, the existing supply of new homes would
last for 8.5 months, well above the long-run
average supply. The median wait to sell a new
home is 14.2 months, near the all-time peak.
7

8
Third, most State governments face balanced
budget requirements, and the economic downturn has forced fiscal consolidations that have
reduced aggregate demand and slowed growth.
The Recovery Act has helped ease State fiscal
adjustments, and the Administration has proposed additional measures to help ease State
budget shortfalls and prevent the firing of
employees such as teachers, firefighters, and
police officers. However, even with this fiscal
support, further consolidation is likely.
Finally, several European countries have
encountered difficulty in recent months in obtaining credit, and financial markets around
the world have responded negatively to these
developments. The European Union has acted
forcefully, however, to confront these issues, establishing a $1 trillion financial rescue package that may be drawn upon by threatened eurozone nations, and the affected governments
have acted to restrain their projected budget
deficits. Even with these actions, the European
recovery is at risk because of increased uncertainty while government stimulus is withdrawn, and a further slowdown in Europe
would pose problems for the rest of the world
whose exports to Europe may be reduced.
Despite these headwinds, the Administration
expects economic growth and job creation to
continue for the rest of 2010 and to rise in 2011
and beyond. As the economy expands, the unemployment rate is expected to fall gradually
to more normal levels, but the collapse of the
housing bubble and the subsequent financial
crisis have taken a significant toll on the economy, and many of the after-effects are likely to
be felt for years to come.
Beyond 2016, the Administration’s forecast is
based on the long-run trends expected for real
GDP growth, price inflation, and interest rates.
Projected real GDP growth in the long run is
below the historical average for the United
States because of an expected slowdown in
the growth of the labor force as the population
ages. Long-run economic growth is expected to
average 2.5 percent, which is unchanged from
the February Budget forecast.
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
The revised MSR economic projections are
based on information available through early
June 2010. They are summarized in Table 2.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the
Unemployment Rate: Real GDP is expected to
rise by 3.1 percent during the four quarters of
2010 and to increase 4.0 percent in 2011. The
growth rate is projected to rise to 4.3 percent
in 2012 and 4.2 percent in 2013 as the economy returns closer to its potential output level.
Beyond 2013, real GDP growth is projected to
moderate, declining gradually to 2.5 percent
per year in 2018-2020.
The unemployment rate is projected to average 9.7 percent in 2010. This is the average
level of unemployment that has prevailed during the first six months of the year. Despite the
growth in output, unemployment is projected to
decline slowly because, as labor market conditions improve, discouraged workers rejoin the
labor force, adding temporarily to unemployment, while part-time workers increase their
hours of work. With continued healthy growth
in 2011 and beyond, the unemployment rate is
projected to fall, but it is not projected to fall
below 6.0 percent until 2015. The increase in
unemployment was unusually steep in this cycle, exceeding what might have been expected
based on the decline in real GDP. Conceivably,
the outsized rise in unemployment might be
followed by an equally rapid decline, but that is
not assumed in these projections. Rather, they
reflect the close relationship that has prevailed
historically between changes in real GDP and
unemployment.
Inflation: Inflation peaked in 2008 mainly
because of a sharp rise in world oil prices, and
it has declined since then. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, has also declined but much less dramatically than the
top-line measure. Core inflation was 2.4 percent between June 2007 and June 2008; it was
1.7 percent over the following 12 months; and
from June 2009 through June 2010 it was only
0.9 percent. This is the lowest rate of core inflation since 1963. Core inflation is expected
to edge up in coming years as the economy
recovers and unemployment declines. In the
long run, the CPI inflation rate is projected to
be 2.1 percent per year.
The other main measure of inflation is the
price index for GDP. Year-over-year inflation by this measure is projected to be 0.7
percent in 2010, 1.0 percent in 2011, 1.5 percent in 2012, and ultimately 1.8 percent in
2016-2020.

9

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

Table 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS 1
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
Actual
2008

Projections

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars ������������������� 14,441 14,256 14,817 15,516 16,412 17,383 18,384 19,369 20,337 21,281 22,204 23,166 24,167
Constant (2005) dollars ������ 13,312 12,987 13,406 13,894 14,474 15,084 15,690 16,248 16,765 17,227 17,659 18,095 18,543
Price index (2005 = 100) ����� 108.5 109.7 110.5 111.6 113.4 115.2 117.1 119.2 121.3 123.5 125.7 128.0 130.3
Percent change, Q4/Q4:
Current dollars �������������������
Constant (2005) dollars ������
Price index (2005 = 100) �����

0.1
–1.9
1.9

0.7
0.1
0.7

4.0
3.1
0.8

5.3
4.0
1.3

6.0
4.3
1.6

5.9
4.2
1.6

5.7
3.9
1.7

5.2
3.4
1.7

4.9
3.1
1.8

4.4
2.6
1.8

4.3
2.5
1.8

4.3
2.5
1.8

4.3
2.5
1.8

Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars �������������������
Constant (2005) dollars ������
Price index (2005 = 100) �����

2.6
0.4
2.1

–1.3
–2.4
1.2

3.9
3.2
0.7

4.7
3.6
1.0

5.8
4.2
1.5

5.9
4.2
1.6

5.8
4.0
1.7

5.4
3.6
1.7

5.0
3.2
1.8

4.6
2.8
1.8

4.3
2.5
1.8

4.3
2.5
1.8

4.3
2.5
1.8

1,428
7,783
6,277
3,102

1,821
7,948
6,398
3,209

1,893
8,395
6,755
3,325

1,902
8,927
7,191
3,563

1,875 1,928 2,003 2,046 2,056 2,049 1,993 2,049
9,506 10,103 10,695 11,282 11,855 12,426 13,028 13,617
7,685 8,194 8,684 9,158 9,630 10,087 10,580 11,058
3,794 4,026 4,210 4,408 4,604 4,790 4,996 5,225

214.5
1.5
–0.3

218.1
1.0
1.6

220.9
1.6
1.3

225.0
1.9
1.8

229.3
1.9
1.9

233.8
2.0
2.0

238.6
2.0
2.0

243.5
2.1
2.1

248.7
2.1
2.1

253.9
2.1
2.1

259.3
2.1
2.1

264.7
2.1
2.1

10.0
9.3

9.6
9.7

8.7
9.0

7.7
8.1

6.8
7.1

6.0
6.3

5.5
5.7

5.2
5.3

5.2
5.2

5.2
5.2

5.2
5.2

5.2
5.2

3.5
3.5

3.9
3.9

3.4
2.0

1.4
1.4

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

91-day Treasury bills 6 ����������������

1.4

0.2

0.2

0.7

1.9

3.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

10-year Treasury notes ��������������

3.7

3.3

3.5

4.0

4.6

5.0

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

Incomes, billions of current dollars:
Corporate profits before tax �������
Employee compensation ������������
Wages and salaries ���������������������
Other taxable income 2 ���������������

1,463
8,037
6,546
3,311

Consumer Price Index (all urban): 3
Level (1982–84 = 100) ����������������
Percent change, Q4/Q4 ���������������
Percent change, year/year ����������

215.2
1.6
3.8

Unemployment rate, civilian, percent:
Fourth quarter level �������������������
Annual average ��������������������������

6.9
5.8

Federal pay raises, January, percent:
Military 4 �������������������������������������
Civilian 5 ��������������������������������������
Interest rates, percent:

NA = Not Available; Q4/Q4 = fourth quarter over fourth quarter
1
Based on information available as of early June 2010.
2
Rent, interest, dividend, and proprietors’ income components of personal income.
3
Seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers.
4
Percentages apply to basic pay only; percentages to be proposed for years after 2011 have not yet been determined.
5
Overall average increase, including locality pay adjustments. Percentages to be proposed for years after 2011 have not yet been determined.
6
Average rate, secondary market (bank discount basis).

10

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Interest Rates: The projections for interest rates are based on financial market data
and market expectations at the time that the
forecast was developed. The three-month
Treasury bill rate is expected to average only
0.2 percent in 2010 but to begin rising in 2011
and reach 4.1 percent by 2014. The yield on
the ten-year Treasury note is projected to average 3.5 percent in 2010 and to rise to 5.3
percent by 2014. In the later years of the forecast, projected real interest rates are close to
their historical averages in real terms, given
the projected rate of inflation.
Incomes and Income Shares: Corporate profits have rebounded more quickly than labor
compensation (which consists of wages and
salaries and employee fringe benefits such as
employer-provided insurance and pensions).
As a result, corporate profits have risen as a
share of the economy over the past five quarters, while labor compensation as a share of the
economy has fallen below its long-run average.
As the economy continues to recover, this trend
is expected to reverse. Labor compensation is
projected to rise somewhat relative to the size
of the economy, while the share of corporate
profits is projected to fall somewhat. The wage
share, excluding fringe benefits, is also expected to recover from its recent low level, in step
with the increase in compensation.
FORECAST COMPARISONS
A comparison with the Blue Chip and
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

forecasts is shown below in Table 3. For
2010, the projected rate of real GDP growth
is similar to that of the June Blue Chip
Consensus (an average of about 50 privatesector forecasts). The MSR forecast for 2010
is in the lower half of the forecast range
from the most recent public FOMC forecast.
The most recent CBO forecast, which dates
to last December, was somewhat lower. In
2011, real GDP growth (fourth quarter over
fourth quarter) is expected to be 4.0 percent, which is within the FOMC range of
3.5 to 4.2 percent, but is somewhat stronger than the Blue Chip consensus. CBO is
required to assume that all of the 2001 and
2003 tax cuts expire as scheduled in 2011,
and, under this assumption, projects significantly lower growth than other forecasters for 2011. CBO explained in its Budget
and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to
2020 that, absent this required assumption,
its forecast would have been similar to that
of other forecasters.
The Administration projects that unemployment will average 9.7 percent in 2010,
9.0 percent in 2011, and 8.1 percent in 2012.
The Blue Chip consensus is quite similar:
9.6 percent in 2010 and 9.0 percent in 2011.
The FOMC projects that unemployment will
fall more quickly. By the fourth quarter
of 2012, the FOMC forecast range extends
from 7.1 percent to 7.5 percent, whereas the
Administration forecast for that quarter is 7.7
percent.

Table 3. COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)

Nominal GDP:
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

14,256
14,252
14,253
14,256

14,817
14,768
14,706
14,839

15,516
15,514
15,116
15,256

16,412 17,383 18,384 19,369 20,337 21,281 22,204 23,166 24,167
16,444 17,433 18,446 19,433 20,408 21,373 22,329 23,312 24,323
15,969 16,918 17,816 18,622 19,425 20,231 21,033 21,882 22,770

Percent change, year over year
Real GDP:
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

–2.4
–2.5
–2.5
–2.4

3.2
2.7
2.2
3.3

3.6
3.8
1.9
3.1

4.2
4.3
4.5

4.2
4.2
4.8

4.0
4.0
3.9

3.6
3.6
2.9

3.2
3.2
2.5

2.8
2.8
2.3

2.5
2.6
2.2

2.5
2.5
2.2

2.5
2.5
2.3

11

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

Table 3. COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS—Continued
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter
Real GDP:
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
FOMC ����������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

0.1
–0.5
–0.4
0.1
0.1

3.1
3.0
2.1
3.0–3.5
3.1

4.0
4.3
2.4
3.5–4.2
3.1

4.3
4.3
5.1
3.5–4.5

4.2
4.2
4.7

3.9
3.4
3.1
2.6
2.5
3.9
3.4
3.1
2.7
2.6
3.4
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.3
Longer Run Average: 2.5–2.8

2.5
2.5
2.2

2.5
2.5
2.3

Percent change, year over year
GDP Price Index:
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2

0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9

1.0
1.2
0.9
1.5

1.5
1.6
1.0

1.6
1.7
1.1

1.7
1.7
1.3

1.7
1.7
1.6

1.8
1.8
1.7

1.8
1.8
1.8

1.8
1.8
1.8

1.8
1.8
1.8

1.8
1.8
1.8

Consumer Price Index (CPI-U):
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

–0.3
–0.3
–0.2
–0.3

1.6
1.9
2.4
1.8

1.3
1.5
1.3
1.7

1.8
1.9
1.2

1.9
2.0
1.1

2.0
2.0
1.3

2.0
2.0
1.7

2.1
2.1
1.9

2.1
2.1
2.0

2.1
2.1
2.0

2.1
2.1
2.0

2.1
2.1
2.0

Annual average in percent
Unemployment Rate:
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
FOMC 1 ���������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

9.3
9.3
9.3
10.0
9.3

9.7
10.0
10.1
9.2–9.5
9.6

9.0
9.2
9.5
8.3–8.7
9.0

8.1
8.2
8.0
7.1–7.5

7.1
7.3
6.3

6.3
5.7
5.3
5.2
5.2
6.5
5.9
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
Longer Run Average: 5.0–5.3

5.2
5.2
5.0

5.2
5.2
5.0

91-Day Treasury Bills:
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2

0.2
0.4
0.2
0.3

0.7
1.6
0.7
1.4

1.9
3.0
1.9

3.3
4.0
3.0

4.1
4.1
3.9

4.1
4.1
4.2

4.1
4.1
4.4

4.1
4.1
4.7

4.1
4.1
4.8

4.1
4.1
4.8

4.1
4.1
4.8

10-Year Treasury Notes:
MSR �������������������������������������������������������
Budget ���������������������������������������������������
CBO �������������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������������������

3.3
3.3
3.2
3.3

3.5
3.9
3.6
3.7

4.0
4.5
3.9
4.4

4.6
5.0
4.2

5.0
5.3
4.5

5.3
5.3
4.9

5.3
5.3
5.2

5.3
5.3
5.4

5.3
5.3
5.6

5.3
5.3
5.6

5.3
5.3
5.6

5.3
5.3
5.6

MSR = Mid-Session Review (forecast date June 2010).
Budget = 2011 Budget (forecast date November 2009).
CBO = Congressional Budget Office (forecast date December 2009).
FOMC = Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (forecast central tendency, date June 2010).
Blue Chip = June Blue Chip Consensus Forecast.
Sources: Administration; CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020, January 2010; FOMC, Minutes of the
Federal Open Market Committee, June 22-23, 2010; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, June 2010, Aspen Publishers.
1
Fourth quarter levels of unemployment rate.

RECEIPTS
The Mid-Session Review estimates of receipts are below the February Budget estimates by $33 billion in 2010, $141 billion in
2011, and continue to be lower through 2017,
ranging from a reduction of $112 billion in
2012 to $11 billion in 2017. These reductions
are partially offset by higher estimates of receipts in 2018 through 2020, for a net reduction of $402 billion over the ten-year budget
horizon (2011 through 2020). These changes
in receipts are primarily due to the effect of
economic and technical revisions, which account for $200 billion and $174 billion, respectively, of the net reduction in receipts over ten
years. Policy changes reduce receipts by an
additional $100 billion over the ten years.
Revisions to Budget proposals attributable to
economic and technical factors partially offset
these net reductions in receipts, increasing receipts by $71 billion over the ten-year budget
horizon.
POLICY CHANGES
Changes that have resulted from the enactment of legislation and revisions in the
Administration’s proposals increase receipts
by $5 billion in 2010 and reduce receipts in
each subsequent year, for a net reduction in
receipts of $100 billion over ten years. The
February Budget included a placeholder for
the effects of health reform legislation based
on the bills that had been passed by the House
and Senate at the time. Relative to that placeholder and several other Administration proposals, enactment of the Patient Protection
and Affordable Care Act, as amended by the
Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act
(Affordable Care Act), reduces receipts by $2
billion in 2010, $19 billion in 2011, and $108
billion over the ten years, 2011 through 2020.
(Note that the deficit effect of this reduction
in receipts is almost entirely offset by the final legislation’s reduction in outlays relative
to the placeholder in the Budget.) Other legislated changes in taxes and fees, which include
the Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment
Act, reduce receipts by a net $7 billion over
the ten-year budget horizon relative to the
Administration’s February Budget proposals.
These net reductions in receipts attributable
to legislated tax changes are partially offset

by revisions in the Administration’s proposals, which increase receipts by $15 billion over
the ten-year budget horizon. These revisions
include reduction of the February Budget’s
placeholder for further jobs initiatives to reflect the subsequent enactment or proposal of
initiatives that had not been previously specified in February.
ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL
REVISIONS IN PROPOSALS
Revisions in the estimates of the
Administration’s proposals that have not
been enacted increase receipts by $43 billion in 2010, reduce receipts by $24 billion in
2011, and increase receipts by a net $71 billion over the ten years, 2011 through 2020.
Of this, a reduction in the estimated cost of
permanently extending alternative minimum
tax relief, the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, and
estate and gift taxes at parameters in effect
for calendar year 2009 increases receipts by
$125 billion over ten years. The lower cost
of extending these temporary tax provisions,
which are reflected in the Administration’s
baseline projection of current policy, is due in
large part to reductions in the economic forecast for wages and salaries and other sources
of taxable income. The reduction in the estimated cost of permanently extending these
provisions is partially offset by a $54 billion
reduction in the estimated net receipt gain
from the Administration’s other proposals. A
reduction in the estimated receipt gain from
the Administration’s proposed tax increases
on higher-income individuals, attributable
in large part to reductions in taxable income,
particularly capital gains and dividends,
accounts for most of the $54 billion reduction in the estimated receipt gain from the
Administration’s other proposals.
ECONOMIC CHANGES
Revisions in the economic forecast have the
greatest effect on individual income taxes
and social insurance and retirement receipts.
Reductions in the economic forecast for wages
and salaries and other sources of taxable personal income reduce individual income taxes
by $7 billion in 2010, $8 billion in 2011, and
13

14

MID-SESSION REVIEW

$138 billion over ten years. Social insurance
and retirement receipts, which include Social
Security and Medicare payroll taxes, unemployment insurance receipts, and railroad
retirement and other retirement receipts, decline by $3 billion in 2010, $8 billion in 2011,
and $134 billion over ten years. Wages and
salaries and proprietor’s income are the tax
base for Social Security and Medicare payroll
taxes, the largest component of this source of
receipts. Reductions in wages and salaries,
which are based on additional income data,
are responsible for the reductions in social
insurance and retirement receipts in each
year. These reductions are partially offset by
increases in proprietor’s income. Reductions
in deposits of earnings of the Federal Reserve
System, attributable to lower interest rates,
reduce receipts by an additional $7 billion
over the ten-year budget horizon. These reductions in individual income taxes, social insurance and retirement receipts, and deposits
of earnings of the Federal Reserve System are
only partially offset by increases in corporation income taxes and other sources of re-

ceipts. Changes in GDP and other economic
measures that affect the profitability of corporations increase corporation income taxes by
$11 billion in 2010, $7 billion in 2011 and $3
billion to $12 billion in each subsequent year,
for an increase of $79 billion over ten years.
ESTIMATING CHANGES
Technical reestimates of receipts reduce
collections by $83 billion in 2010, $92 billion
in 2011, and a net $174 billion over the tenyear budget horizon. Technical reestimates
of individual income taxes and social insurance and retirement receipts account for most
of this reduction in receipts. The revisions in
individual income taxes are in large part attributable to more recent collections data and
revisions in the individual income tax model
based primarily on updated tax data for prior
years. More recent taxable wage data from
employer returns accounts for most of the
technical revisions in social insurance and retirement receipts.

Table 4. CHANGE IN RECEIPTS
(In billions of dollars)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
February Budget estimate ������������������������������� 2,165 2,567 2,926 3,188 3,455 3,634 3,887 4,094 4,299 4,507 4,710

20112015

20112020

15,771

37,268

Changes due to policy:
Affordable Care Act ��������������������������������������
Other enacted legislation ����������������������������
Changes in proposals �����������������������������������
Total changes due to policy ������������������

–2
–4
11
5

–19
–4
5
–18

–19
1
4
–14

–18
2
3
–14

–2
18
2
18

–15
*
*
–15

–4
–16
*
–20

–7
*
*
–7

–7
–2
*
–9

–8
2
*
–6

–8
–9
*
–17

–73
17
14
–41

–108
–7
15
–100

Changes due to economic and technical
revisions in proposals ����������������������������������

43

–24

–1

7

13

13

11

11

12

13

16

9

71

–7
11
–3

–8
7
–8

–13
3
–12

–14
6
–12

–14
7
–13

–12
11
–14

–14
12
–17

–15
11
–16

–18
10
–16

–15
7
–14

–14
5
–12

–61
33
–59

–138
79
–134

*
1

1
*

–*
–*

–1
–*

–1
–*

–1
–*

–1
*

–1
*

–1
*

–1
*

–1
*

–2
–*

–7
1

1

–7

–22

–22

–21

–17

–19

–21

–25

–24

–22

–89

–200

Changes due to technical reestimates ������������

–83

–92

–76

–57

–25

–19

–7

6

24

33

39

–269

–174

Total change in receipts �����������������������������������

–33 –141 –112

–86

–14

–37

–35

–11

2

16

16

–391

–402

Mid-Session Review estimate �������������������������� 2,132 2,426 2,814 3,102 3,441 3,597 3,853 4,083 4,301 4,523 4,725

15,380

36,865

Changes due to revised economic
assumptions:
Individual income taxes �������������������������������
Corporation income taxes ����������������������������
Social insurance and retirement receipts ���
Deposit of earnings, Federal Reserve
System ������������������������������������������������������
Other �������������������������������������������������������������
Total changes due to revised economic
assumptions ��������������������������������������

* $500 million or less.

EXPENDITURES
Outlays for fiscal year 2010 are now estimated to be $3.603 trillion, a $118 billion decrease from the February Budget estimate, due
largely to reduced spending for unemployment
compensation and downward revisions in discretionary spending and net outlays for deposit
insurance. Relative to the February Budget, total outlays have increased by $8 billion in 2011
and decreased by $461 billion over ten years.
These changes are largely the effect of technical and economic revisions in estimates of
major programs as well as enactment of major
pieces of legislation since the February Budget
release, including the Patient Protection and
Affordable Care Act, as amended by the Health
Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010
(“Affordable Care Act”).
POLICY CHANGES
Changes that have resulted from the enactment of legislation and changes in policy
since the release of the February Budget have
a minimal effect on outlays in 2010, but increase spending by $30 billion in 2011. Yet
over the ten-year period, 2011 through 2020,
policy changes decrease outlays by $215 billion. The largest of these changes is the enactment of the Affordable Care Act.
Health reform. The health reform provisions of the Affordable Care Act expand health
insurance coverage through Medicaid and new
market-based health insurance exchanges,
make health care more affordable, and make
numerous other changes in health programs.
The February Budget included a placeholder
for the effects of health reform legislation,
based on the bills that had been passed by the
House and Senate at the time. Relative to the
February Budget placeholder, enacted health
reform reduces outlays by $94 billion over the
ten-year window, 2011 through 2020.
Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility
Act (SAFRA). SAFRA, included as part
of the Reconciliation Act, enacted the
Administration’s proposal to eliminate subsidies under the bank-based guaranteed student loan program and originate all new loans
under the more efficient Direct Loan Program.
The Act also increased funding for Federal

Pell Grants and made other changes to education programs. Relative to the education
proposals in the February Budget, SAFRA
reduces outlays by $46 billion over ten years,
largely because SAFRA included more modest
increases in the Pell Grant maximum award
in future years.
Other enacted legislation. Other legislation enacted since February included several temporary extensions of extended unemployment benefits, health subsidies for
laid-off workers under COBRA, and relief
from scheduled reductions in Medicare physician payments. These extensions were part
of the February Budget proposals and therefore the enacted extensions had little effect
relative to the outlay estimates in the Budget.
The Medicare physician payment legislation
enacted in June included a provision to clarify that payment for inpatient hospital care
covers certain preadmission services, which
reduced Medicare outlays relative to the
February estimates.
Changes in proposals. Revisions in the
Administration’s budget proposals reduce outlays by $4 billion in 2010 and increase outlays
by $7 billion over the next ten years. These
revisions include new proposals to provide
funding for States to prevent layoffs of teachers, firefighters, and police; create a Small
Business Lending Fund and State Small
Business Credit Initiative to promote access
to capital by small businesses; and establish a
home energy retrofit rebate program to jumpstart demand and improve energy efficiency.
The revisions also include a reduction in the
size of the February Budget’s placeholder for
further jobs initiatives (from $100 billion to
$50 billion, evenly divided between spending
and receipts) to reflect the subsequent enactment or proposal of jobs initiatives—such as
the new jobs measures described above—that
had not been previously specified in the 2011
Budget.
ESTIMATING CHANGES
Estimating changes are due to factors other
than enacted legislation or changes in policy,
including changes in economic assumptions,
15

16
discussed earlier in this Review, and changes
in technical factors. Relative to the Budget estimate, economic and technical changes decrease
estimated outlays for 2010 by $118 billion and
by $246 billion from 2011 through 2020.
Discretionary appropriations. Outlays
for discretionary appropriations fall by $30
billion in 2010 and increase by $51 billion over
the next ten years relative to the Budget as a
re­sult of technical revisions. These changes
re­
flect higher outlays in 2010 compared to
the February Budget for the Department of
Housing and Urban Development, with significantly lower spending in the Departments
of Defense, Health and Human Services,
Education, Energy, Transportation, and
Homeland Security. In 2011, the Departments
of Defense, Energy, Labor, and the Corps of
Engineers show significantly higher outlays than projected in the Budget, while the
Department of Health and Human Services is
again lower than projected in the Budget due
to technical revisions.
Medicare. Estimating changes reduce outlays for Medicare by $75 billion over the next
ten years, most notably in the later years of the
period. Outlays for Medicare Parts A and B are
expected to decrease, while those for Medicare
Part D are expected to increase. Slower-thanprojected spending growth relative to the
February Budget reduces outlays, but the reductions are partially offset by increases due to
higher estimated Medicare enrollment.
Unemployment compensation. Changes
in economic and technical assumptions decrease outlays for unemployment benefits by
$34 billion in 2010 and $17 billion in 2011.
Over the ten-year period of 2011 through
2020, outlays are down by $66 billion. The
reduction is driven by lower-than-expected
Unemployment Insurance rates as well as reduced projections of total civilian unemployment over the next several years.
Veterans Compensation and Pension.
Outlays for Veterans’ Compensation and
Pension benefits are $9 billion lower than the
February estimates in 2010 but are higher
than the February estimates in subsequent
years. The reduction in 2010 is due to delays
in enacting appropriations and implementing regulations necessary to pay retroactive
claims related to Agent Orange exposure. The

MID-SESSION REVIEW

MSR assumes that these payments will begin
later this fiscal year but the bulk of payments
will outlay the following year, accounting for
most of the $10 billion increase in outlays in
2011. Over the 11-year period 2010 through
2020, compensation and pension outlays rise
by $27 billion due to increased caseload estimates, which are only partly offset by reduced
outlays from expected lower cost of living adjustments (COLAs).
Medicaid. Projected Federal outlays for
Med­
icaid decrease by $21 billion over ten
years from the February Budget estimates.
The decreases stem primarily from slower
projected spending growth in State estimates
and actuarial models relative to the baseline
estimates in the Budget and lower inflation.
Deposit insurance. Deposit insurance
outlays fall by $18 billion in 2010 relative to
the February estimates, but rise by $18 billion over the following ten years. Much of the
reduction in 2010 results from the increased
use of loss sharing agreements by the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) when
resolving failed institutions. Loss sharing
agreements result in lower upfront payments
by the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), as partnering institutions take over the insolvent
banks but reduce expected future receipts to
the DIF from selling assets after bank failures. The revised MSR estimates also reflect
an increased forecast of failed bank assets because of weaker conditions in the banking industry following the European debt crisis and
a slower-than-expected recovery. National
Credit Union Administration (NCUA) spending comprised $6 billion of the reduction in
2010 outlays due primarily to a timing shift
from 2010 to 2011.
Social Security. Estimating changes reduce outlays for Social Security by $1 billion
in 2010 and increase outlays by $13 bil­lion
over the next ten years. Spending decreases
due to lower COLAs are more than offset by
increases in outlays due to recent program experience, lower projected mortality rates for
persons ages 65 and older, and revised estimates of the effects of the recession on disability incidence.
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP). Outlays for SNAP, formerly called Food Stamps, decrease by $11

EXPENDITURES

billion over the next ten years due to economic
and tech­
nical factors. Technical changes include increased participation assumptions of
300,000 individuals in 2012 and 2013. This
increased participation drives up SNAP program costs relative to the Budget. In the long
term, however, participation is expected to fall
to historical levels more rapidly than estimated in February due to the strengthening economy, which results in out-year participation
estimates that are lower than in the Budget,
decreasing program costs starting in 2015.
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
Relative to the February Budget, outlays for
TARP are now expected to be $10 billion lower
in 2010 due to technical revisions, and decrease
$3 billion over the course of the 11-year period from 2010 to 2020. Outlays for the Home
Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) are
assumed to occur later than reflected in the

17
Budget, with lower outlays in 2010 and 2011,
and higher outlays in 2012 and beyond, with
total outlays unchanged. The $3 billion reduction in programs other than HAMP is primarily
due to the Administration’s decision to remove
a $3 billion placeholder in TARP that was assumed in the Budget for small business initiatives, as the Administration is instead seeking
to create a Small Business Lending Fund and
State Small Business Credit Initiative outside
of TARP.
Net interest. Excluding the debt service associated with policy changes, outlays for net interest are projected to decrease by $202 billion
over ten years. These reductions are virtually
all due to the effect of lower short- and longterm Treasury interest rates over the next few
years of the revised MSR economic forecast,
partially offset by increased debt service due
to estimating changes in receipts and outlays.

18

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table 5. CHANGE IN OUTLAYS
(In billions of dollars)
20112010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20112015 2020
February Budget estimate ��������������������������������� 3,721 3,834 3,755 3,915 4,161 4,386 4,665 4,872 5,084 5,415 5,713
Changes due to policy:
Affordable Care Act ��������������������������������� .........
Preservation of Access to Care for
Medicare Beneficiaries and Pension
Relief Act�����������������������������������������������
1
Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility
Act ��������������������������������������������������������
–2
Other legislation and policy changes ������
1
Debt service ����������������������������������������������
–*
Subtotal, policy changes ��������������������������������
–*

7

4

–23

–19

–17

–8

–4

–8

–11

–16

–48

–94

–*

–6

–7

–8

–8

–9

–10

–10

–11

–12

–29

–82

1
22
*
30

6
3
1
8

–4
–2
2
–35

–5
–2
1
–33

–5
–*
–1
–31

–6
–*
–1
–24

–6
–*
–1
–22

–7
–*
–2
–28

–9
–*
–3
–36

–12
–*
–5
–45

–7
–46
20
18
3
–10
–61 –215

–8
–22
–4
–34
–9
–1
–18
–1

4
13
–3
–17
10
–11
11
–*

3
8
4
–9
1
–7
14
–1

1
5
2
–7
2
–5
3
*

*
2
–8
–7
2
12
–1
1

–*
1
–4
–6
3
8
–6
2

2
1
–17
–6
3
–1
–11
2

2
3
–13
–5
3
–5
–16
2

2
*
–7
–4
3
–4
21
2

2
*
–16
–3
4
–4
3
2

2
–*
–13
–2
4
–4
*
2

7
29
–9
–46
18
–3
21
2

Subtotal, reestimates �������������������������������������

*
–10
–8
–3
–118

*
–3
4
–30
–22

1
*
–4
–49
–37

1
2
6
–53
–42

*
2
38
–31
10

–1
2
24
–16
5

–3
2
6
–9
–31

–4
1
–10
–5
–47

–3
–1
–*
1
–11
* ......... .........
4
7
–15 –19 –28
68
2
–2
–2
–4 –179 –202
–6 –34 –42 –87 –246

Total change in outlays ��������������������������������������

–118

8

–29

–77

–22

–27

–55

–68

–34

Changes due to reestimates:
Discretionary appropriations:
Security ������������������������������������������������
Non-security ����������������������������������������
Medicare ���������������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �����������������
Veterans Compensation and Pension �����
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������������
Deposit insurance ������������������������������������
Social Security �����������������������������������������
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program �����������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program ���������������
Other mandatory programs ��������������������
Net interest 1 ��������������������������������������������

–70

–87 –148 –461

Mid-Session Review estimate ���������������������������� 3,603 3,842 3,725 3,838 4,139 4,359 4,610 4,804 5,051 5,345 5,626
* $500 million or less.
1
Includes debt service on all reestimates.

17
34
–75
–66
37
–21
18
13

SUMMARY TABLES

19

20

Table S–1. BUDGET TOTALS
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

20112015

20112020

Budget (Without Fiscal Commission)
Budget Totals in Billions of Dollars:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������������������������
Outlays ������������������������������������������������������������������
Deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������

2,105
3,518
1,413

2,132
3,603
1,471

2,426
3,842
1,416

2,814
3,725
911

3,102
3,838
736

3,441
4,139
698

3,597
4,359
762

3,853
4,610
758

4,083
4,804
721

4,301
5,051
749

4,523
5,345
822

4,725 15,380 36,865
5,626 19,903 45,339
900 4,523 8,474

Debt held by the public �����������������������������������������
Debt net of financial assets ����������������������������������

7,545
6,646

9,199 10,550 11,602 12,459 13,264 14,134 14,984 15,795 16,619 17,514 18,505
8,079 9,482 10,393 11,129 11,826 12,588 13,345 14,065 14,814 15,636 16,535

Gross domestic product (GDP) ��������������������������������� 14,230 14,674 15,317 16,176 17,137 18,131 19,128 20,094 21,052 21,970 22,922 23,912
Budget Totals as a Percent of GDP:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������������������������
Outlays ������������������������������������������������������������������
Deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������

14.8%
24.7%
9.9%

14.5%
24.6%
10.0%

15.8%
25.1%
9.2%

17.4%
23.0%
5.6%

18.1%
22.4%
4.3%

19.0%
22.8%
3.8%

18.8%
22.8%
4.0%

19.2%
22.9%
3.8%

19.4%
22.8%
3.4%

19.6%
23.0%
3.4%

19.7%
23.3%
3.6%

19.8%
23.5%
3.8%

Debt held by the public �����������������������������������������
Debt net of financial assets ����������������������������������

53.0%
46.7%

62.7%
55.1%

68.9%
61.9%

71.7%
64.3%

72.7%
64.9%

73.2%
65.2%

73.9%
65.8%

74.6%
66.4%

75.0%
66.8%

75.6%
67.4%

76.4%
68.2%

77.4%
69.2%

17.8%
23.2%
5.4%

18.7%
23.2%
4.5%

FISCAL COMMISSION

MID-SESSION REVIEW

On February 18, 2010, the President signed Executive Order 13531, creating the National Commission
on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. The Commission is charged with identifying policies to improve the fiscal situation in the medium term and to achieve fiscal sustainability over the long run.
Specifically, the Commission is charged with proposing recommendations designed to balance the
budget, excluding interest payments on the debt, by 2015. This result is projected to stabilize the
debt-to-GDP ratio at an acceptable level once the economy recovers. The magnitude and timing of
the policy measures necessary to achieve this goal are subject to considerable uncertainty and will
depend on the evolution of the economy. In addition, the Commission is charged with proposing recommendations that meaningfully improve the long-run fiscal outlook, including changes to address
the growth of entitlement spending and the gap between the projected revenues and expenditures of
the Federal Government.

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Projected deficits in the baseline projection of
current policy 1 ����������������������������������������������������������
Percent of GDP �������������������������������������������������������������
Temporary recovery measures:
Tax cuts ������������������������������������������������������������������������
Mandatory proposals ���������������������������������������������������
Allowance for other jobs initiatives �����������������������������
Subtotal, temporary recovery measures ��������������
Allowance for climate policy 2 ������������������������������������������
Tax cuts for families and businesses 3, 4 ���������������������������
Other revenue changes and loophole closers 3, 5 ��������������
Proposed changes in mandatory programs and user
fees �������������������������������������������������������������������������������

2011

1,405
9.6%

2012

2013

2014

2015

1,233
8.0%

967
6.0%

904
5.3%

896
4.9%

985
5.2%

2016
1,003
5.0%

2017
987
4.7%

2018
1,037
4.7%

2019
1,132
4.9%

2020
1,230
5.1%

2011–
2020

4,986 10,375
5.9%
5.4%

12

55

22

–5

–3

–3

–2

–2

–1

–1

–1

67

59

38
2
52
.........
*
.........

64
40
159
.........
40
–28

8
8
38
.........
32
–56

1
.........
–4
.........
22
–65

1
.........
–3
.........
22
–71

*
.........
–3
.........
24
–74

.........
.........
–2
.........
25
–77

.........
.........
–2
.........
27
–79

.........
.........
–1
.........
28
–80

.........
.........
–1
.........
30
–84

.........
.........
–1
.........
31
–87

74
48
188
.........
140
–294

74
48
180
.........
281
–702

–4

–77

2

4

2

–1

–3

–7

–10

–13

–15

–17

–19

Proposed changes in appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
9
Overseas contingency operations (OCO) ��������������������
Security (except OCO) �������������������������������������������������
3
Non-security ����������������������������������������������������������������
*
Subtotal, appropriated programs �������������������������
12
Subtotal, policy proposals ��������������������������������������
67

36
13
–11
39
214

–42
20
–16
–38
–22

–75
22
–25
–78
–126

–83
25
–28
–87
–141

–88
28
–30
–89
–149

–91
31
–31
–90
–154

–93
33
–31
–91
–158

–96
35
–32
–93
–161

–98
36
–31
–94
–165

–101
37
–26
–90
–166

Upper-income tax provisions devoted to deficit
reduction ��������������������������������������������������������������������

.........

–30

–36

–45

–54

–62

–69

–75

–80

–86

–91

Credit and other indirect interest effects �����������������������
Debt service ����������������������������������������������������������������������
Total reduction in projected deficits �������������������

–*
*
66

–1
1
183

–1
3
–56

–1
3
–168

–*
–3
–198

–*
–12
–224

–*
–23
–245

–*
–34
–266

–*
–46
–287

*
–59
–310

*
–73
–330

Resulting deficits in Mid-Session Review ���������������

1,471
10.0%

1,416
9.2%

911
5.6%

736
4.3%

698
3.8%

762
4.0%

758
3.8%

721
3.4%

749
3.4%

822
3.6%

900
3.8%

Percent of GDP �������������������������������������������������������������

2011–
2015

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–2. EFFECT OF BUDGET PROPOSALS ON PROJECTED DEFICITS

–251
–731
107
279
–109
–259
–253
–711
–224 –1,028
–228

–629

–3
–3
–8
–241
–463 –1,901
4,523
5.4%

8,474
4.5%

21

22

Table S–2. EFFECT OF BUDGET PROPOSALS ON PROJECTED DEFICITS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)
Totals
2010

2011

2012

2013

Memorandum, proposed changes in appropriated (“discretionary”) budgetary resources:
Overseas contingency operations �������������������������������
33
28
–84
–86
Security (except OCO) �������������������������������������������������
7
16
27
30
Non-security ����������������������������������������������������������������
1
–14
–19
–31
Total, appropriated funding ������������������������������
41
30
–75
–86
Memorandum, deficit reduction exclusive of OCO
savings and related debt service ���������������������������������

58

147

–15

–92

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

–88
33
–29
–85

–90
37
–27
–80

–93
38
–32
–87

–95
39
–34
–91

–98
39
–34
–93

–101
40
–32
–93

–103
41
–25
–87

–320
144
–120
–296

–810
341
–278
–747

–110

–127

–141

–155

–169

–183

–195

–197 –1,039

Note: Figures displayed in the table do not reflect the impact of any recommendations from the Fiscal Commission.
* $500 million or less.
1
See tables S-3 and S-7 for information on the baseline projection of current policy.
2
A comprehensive market-based climate change policy will be deficit neutral because proceeds from emissions allowances will be used to compensate vulnerable families, communities, and businesses during the transition to a clean energy economy. Receipts will also be reserved for investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
including support of clean energy technologies, and in adapting to the impacts of climate change, both domestically and in developing countries.
3
Includes refundable tax credits.
4
Includes the effects of continuing certain expiring provisions through calendar year 2011.
5
Includes limiting itemized deductions, trade initiatives, and other tax initiatives on Table S-10.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

20112015

20112020

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Security ����������������������������������������������������������
Non-security ��������������������������������������������������

782
437
1,219

837
528
1,364

850
544
1,394

852
502
1,354

865
487
1,352

883
487
1,371

903
495
1,399

923
507
1,429

946
521
1,466

970
530
1,499

995
542
1,537

1,021
555
1,576

678
425
251
151
607
2,112
187
.........
3,518

702
450
274
–82
653
1,997
185
1
3,547

729
489
263
7
605
2,094
221
2
3,711

761
491
265
10
538
2,066
292
4
3,715

802
534
287
10
530
2,163
382
4
3,901

847
565
351
8
588
2,359
482
4
4,216

896
592
394
5
592
2,480
565
5
4,448

949
643
433
3
610
2,639
638
5
4,711

1,007
666
464
1
599
2,738
707
5
4,916

1,069
694
497
*
641
2,901
772
5
5,177

1,136
759
535
.........
677
3,107
836
5
5,486

1,207 4,035 9,404
815 2,672 6,250
576 1,560 4,064
.........
40
46
696 2,854 6,078
3,295 11,162 25,841
901 1,942 5,796
5
19
44
5,776 19,991 46,057

915
138

889
185

1,047
291

1,207
342

1,353
376

1,483
456

1,618
388

1,744
424

1,867
454

1,984
464

2,104
478

2,222
480

6,708 16,629
1,853 4,152

Excise taxes �����������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ���������������������������������������������
Customs duties ������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System ����
Other miscellaneous receipts �������������������������������
Total receipts �������������������������������������������������

654
191
38
8
62
23
22
34
18

631
180
45
9
70
19
23
73
18

661
191
54
8
82
25
28
73
17

709
206
60
9
85
21
31
61
18

754
223
67
9
89
21
34
54
18

799
242
71
9
98
23
37
51
52

843
257
73
9
103
25
40
47
59

896
274
73
9
105
27
44
49
64

938
287
71
9
109
29
47
52
66

982
301
71
9
124
31
51
54
69

1,028
316
70
9
131
33
55
56
74

1,068
329
71
10
135
36
60
57
78

3,766
1,119
325
43
456
115
170
286
163

2,105

2,142

2,478

2,748

2,997

3,320

3,463

3,708

3,929

4,140

4,353

4,546 15,006 35,682

Deficit �����������������������������������������������������������������������

1,413

1,405

1,233

967

904

896

985

1,003

987

1,037

1,132

1,230

Subtotal, appropriated programs ��������������
Mandatory programs:
Social Security �����������������������������������������������
Medicare ���������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)2 �����
Other mandatory programs ��������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ������������������
Net interest �����������������������������������������������������������
Disaster costs 3 �������������������������������������������������������
Total outlays ��������������������������������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–3. BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT POLICY BY CATEGORY 1

4,354 9,208
2,515 5,169
6,869 14,377

Receipts:
Individual income taxes ����������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes �������������������������������������
Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ���������������������������������
Unemployment insurance �����������������������������
Other retirement �������������������������������������������

8,680
2,626
681
89
1,060
271
426
554
514

23

4,986 10,375

24

Table S–3. BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT POLICY BY CATEGORY 1—Continued
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009
On-budget deficit ���������������������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) �������������������������������������������

1,550
–137

2010
1,479
–74

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

20112015

20112020

1,312
–79

1,071
–104

1,019
–115

1,021
–125

1,118
–132

1,148
–145

1,129
–141

1,174
–138

1,262
–130

1,343
–113

5,541 11,598
–556 –1,223

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Security ������������������������������������������������������������������
824
814
834
Non-security ���������������������������������������������������������
689
446
456
Total, appropriated funding ��������������������������
1,513 1,260 1,291

854
466
1,320

874
478
1,352

895
489
1,384

917
500
1,417

939
512
1,451

963
524
1,487

988
537
1,525

1,013
550
1,563

1,040
564
1,604

4,374 9,318
2,390 5,076
6,764 14,395

* $500 million or less.
1
See Table S-7 for information on adjustments to the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) baseline.
2
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program, and other estimated TARP obligations incurred through October 3, 2010.
3
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Security ����������������������������������������������
Non-security ��������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs �

782
437
1,219

849
528
1,377

900
533
1,433

830
485
1,316

812
462
1,274

825
459
1,284

844
466
1,309

863
476
1,339

886
490
1,375

909
498
1,406

932
511
1,443

956
529
1,486

4,210
2,406
6,616

8,756
4,910
13,665

Mandatory programs:
Social Security �����������������������������������
Medicare ���������������������������������������������
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program
(TARP)1 ������������������������������������������
Allowance for jobs initiatives ������������
Other mandatory programs ��������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs �����
Net interest ����������������������������������������������
Disaster costs2 �������������������������������������������
Total outlays ��������������������������������������

678
425
251

714
450
274

730
488
284

761
490
265

801
533
287

846
563
351

894
590
393

947
640
432

1,005
663
463

1,066
690
496

1,133
756
533

1,203
812
574

4,032
2,665
1,580

9,386
6,226
4,079

151
.........
607
2,112
187
.........
3,518

–82
1
683
2,041
185
1
3,603

7
20
657
2,186
221
2
3,842

10
4
582
2,112
294
4
3,725

10
.........
545
2,175
385
4
3,838

8
.........
603
2,371
480
4
4,139

5
.........
608
2,491
554
5
4,359

3
.........
626
2,649
617
5
4,610

1
.........
616
2,749
675
5
4,804

*
.........
658
2,911
728
5
5,051

.........
.........
695
3,117
780
5
5,345

.........
40
.........
24
715
2,993
3,304 11,335
831
1,934
5
19
5,626 19,903

46
24
6,303
26,064
5,566
44
45,339

Receipts:
Individual income taxes ���������������������������
Corporation income taxes ������������������������

915
138

885
180

1,032
280

1,253
366

1,429
402

1,574
482

1,723
414

1,858
450

1,991
478

2,117
486

2,246
500

2,373
502

7,010
1,944

17,595
4,359

654
191
38
8
62
23
22

631
180
45
9
70
19
23

662
192
54
8
76
25
27

709
206
62
9
83
22
30

753
224
69
9
89
23
33

799
243
73
9
99
25
36

843
258
75
9
104
27
39

896
275
75
9
106
29
43

938
289
73
9
110
32
46

982
303
73
9
126
34
50

1,028
317
71
9
132
37
54

1,068
331
74
10
136
39
59

3,766
1,123
333
43
451
123
166

8,680
2,638
699
89
1,061
294
417

34
.........
18
2,105

73
–1
18
2,132

73
–20
16
2,426

61
–4
17
2,814

54
.........
17
3,102

51
.........
51
3,441

47
.........
58
3,597

49
.........
63
3,853

52
.........
65
4,083

54
.........
68
4,301

56
.........
72
4,523

57
286
.........
–24
77
159
4,725 15,380

554
–24
504
36,865

Deficit ����������������������������������������������������������

1,413

1,471

1,416

911

736

698

762

758

721

749

822

900

4,523

8,474

25

Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ������������
Medicare payroll taxes ���������������������
Unemployment insurance �����������������
Other retirement �������������������������������
Excise taxes ����������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ��������������������������������
Customs duties �����������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve
System ��������������������������������������������������
Allowance for jobs initiatives ������������������
Other miscellaneous receipts ������������������
Total receipts �������������������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–4. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY

26

Table S–4. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY—Continued
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009
On-budget deficit ��������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) ������������������������������
Primary deficit �����������������������������������������
Net interest ����������������������������������������������

1,550
–137
1,226
187

2010
1,545
–74
1,287
185

2011
1,495
–79
1,195
221

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

1,015
–104
617
294

851
–115
351
385

823
–126
218
480

895
–133
208
554

904
–146
140
617

865
–144
46
675

890
–141
21
728

956
–133
42
780

1,017
–117
69
831

5,080
–556
2,589
1,934

9,711
–1,237
2,908
5,566

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Security �����������������������������������������������������
824
859
879
796
Non-security ��������������������������������������������
689
447
441
446
1,513
1,306
1,320
1,242
Total, appropriated funding ��������������

817
446
1,263

838
459
1,297

862
472
1,335

884
479
1,362

906
489
1,395

929
502
1,430

952
517
1,469

977
538
1,515

4,192
2,265
6,457

8,839
4,789
13,628

Note: Figures displayed in the table do no reflect the impact of any recommendations from the Fiscal Commission.
* $500 million or less.
1
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program, and other estimated TARP obligations incurred through October 3, 2010.
2
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(As a percent of GDP)
Averages
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

Outlays:
5.5
3.1
8.6

5.8
3.6
9.4

5.9
3.5
9.4

5.1
3.0
8.1

4.7
2.7
7.4

4.6
2.5
7.1

4.4
2.4
6.8

4.3
2.4
6.7

4.2
2.3
6.5

4.1
2.3
6.4

4.1
2.2
6.3

4.0
2.2
6.2

4.9
2.8
7.8

4.5
2.6
7.1

Mandatory programs:
Social Security ��������������������������������������������������
Medicare ������������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ������������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 1 ���������
Allowance for jobs initiatives ���������������������������
Other mandatory programs �����������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ���������������������
Net interest ��������������������������������������������������������������
Disaster costs 2�����������������������������������������������������������
Total outlays �����������������������������������������������������

4.8
3.0
1.8
1.1
.........
4.3
14.8
1.3
.........
24.7

4.9
3.1
1.9
–0.6
*
4.6
13.9
1.3
*
24.6

4.8
3.2
1.8
*
0.1
4.3
14.3
1.4
*
25.1

4.7
3.0
1.6
0.1
*
3.6
13.1
1.8
*
23.0

4.7
3.1
1.7
0.1
.........
3.2
12.7
2.2
*
22.4

4.7
3.1
1.9
*
.........
3.3
13.1
2.6
*
22.8

4.7
3.1
2.1
*
.........
3.2
13.0
2.9
*
22.8

4.7
3.2
2.2
*
.........
3.1
13.2
3.1
*
22.9

4.8
3.2
2.2
*
.........
2.9
13.1
3.2
*
22.8

4.8
3.1
2.3
*
.........
3.0
13.2
3.3
*
23.0

4.9
3.3
2.3
.........
.........
3.0
13.6
3.4
*
23.3

5.0
3.4
2.4
.........
.........
3.0
13.8
3.5
*
23.5

4.7
3.1
1.8
*
*
3.5
13.2
2.2
*
23.2

4.8
3.2
2.0
*
*
3.3
13.3
2.8
*
23.2

Receipts:
Individual income taxes �������������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes ����������������������������������������

6.4
1.0

6.0
1.2

6.7
1.8

7.7
2.3

8.3
2.3

8.7
2.7

9.0
2.2

9.2
2.2

9.5
2.3

9.6
2.2

9.8
2.2

9.9
2.1

8.1
2.2

8.9
2.2

Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ���������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance ��������������������������������
Other retirement ����������������������������������������������
Excise taxes ��������������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ������������������������������������������������
Customs duties ���������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System �������
Allowance for jobs initiatives ����������������������������������
Other miscellaneous receipts ����������������������������������
Total receipts ����������������������������������������������������

4.6
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.1
14.8

4.3
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.5
–*
0.1
14.5

4.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.5
–0.1
0.1
15.8

4.4
1.3
0.4
*
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
–*
0.1
17.4

4.4
1.3
0.4
*
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.3
.........
0.1
18.1

4.4
1.3
0.4
*
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.3
.........
0.3
19.0

4.4
1.4
0.4
*
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
.........
0.3
18.8

4.5
1.4
0.4
*
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.3
19.2

4.5
1.4
0.4
*
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.3
19.4

4.5
1.4
0.3
*
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.3
19.6

4.5
1.4
0.3
*
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.3
19.7

4.5
1.4
0.3
*
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.3
19.8

4.4
1.3
0.4
*
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.3
–*
0.2
17.8

4.4
1.3
0.4
*
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.3
–*
0.2
18.7

Deficit ��������������������������������������������������������������������������

9.9

10.0

9.2

5.6

4.3

3.8

4.0

3.8

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.8

5.4

4.5

27

Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Security �������������������������������������������������������������
Non-security �����������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs �����������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–5. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY AS A PERCENT OF GDP

28

Table S–5. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY AS A PERCENT OF GDP—Continued
(As a percent of GDP)
Averages
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

On-budget deficit ������������������������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) ����������������������������������������������

10.9
–1.0

10.5
–0.5

9.8
–0.5

6.3
–0.6

5.0
–0.7

4.5
–0.7

4.7
–0.7

4.5
–0.7

4.1
–0.7

4.0
–0.6

4.2
–0.6

4.2
–0.5

6.0
–0.6

5.1
–0.6

Primary deficit ���������������������������������������������������������
Net interest ��������������������������������������������������������������

8.6
1.3

8.8
1.3

7.8
1.4

3.8
1.8

2.0
2.2

1.2
2.6

1.1
2.9

0.7
3.1

0.2
3.2

0.1
3.3

0.2
3.4

0.3
3.5

3.2
2.2

1.7
2.8

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Security ���������������������������������������������������������������������
5.8
5.8
5.7
Non-security ������������������������������������������������������������
4.8
3.0
2.9
Subtotal, appropriated programs ���������������������
10.6
8.9
8.6

4.9
2.8
7.7

4.8
2.6
7.4

4.6
2.5
7.2

4.5
2.5
7.0

4.4
2.4
6.8

4.3
2.3
6.6

4.2
2.3
6.5

4.2
2.3
6.4

4.1
2.2
6.3

4.9
2.6
7.6

4.6
2.5
7.0

Note: Figures displayed in the table do not reflect the impact of any recommendations from the Fiscal Commission.
* 0.05 percent of GDP or less.
1
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program, and other estimated TARP obligations
incurred through October 3, 2010.
2
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(In billions of dollars, based on 2011 prices and population)
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Security ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Non-security �������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs ���������������������

900
533
1,433

808
473
1,281

768
437
1,205

757
422
1,179

752
415
1,168

747
412
1,159

744
411
1,155

740
405
1,146

737
404
1,140

733
406
1,139

Mandatory programs:
Social Security ����������������������������������������������������������
Medicare ��������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ��������������������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 1 �����������������
Allowance for jobs initiatives �����������������������������������
Other mandatory programs �������������������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs �������������������������
Net interest ��������������������������������������������������������������������������
Disaster costs 2 ����������������������������������������������������������������������
Total outlays ��������������������������������������������������������������

730
488
284
7
20
657
2,186
221
2
3,842

741
477
258
10
4
566
2,055
286
4
3,626

758
504
271
9
.........
515
2,057
364
4
3,630

777
517
323
7
.........
554
2,178
441
4
3,802

798
526
351
5
.........
542
2,221
494
4
3,887

820
554
374
3
.........
542
2,293
534
4
3,990

843
557
389
1
.........
517
2,307
566
4
4,033

868
562
404
*
.........
536
2,371
593
4
4,114

895
597
421
.........
.........
549
2,463
617
4
4,224

922
622
440
.........
.........
548
2,533
637
4
4,313

Receipts:
Individual income taxes �������������������������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes ����������������������������������������������������

1,032
280

1,219
356

1,351
380

1,446
443

1,536
369

1,609
389

1,672
401

1,725
396

1,775
395

1,819
385

Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes �����������������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ��������������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance ����������������������������������������
Other retirement ������������������������������������������������������
Excise taxes ��������������������������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ������������������������������������������������������������
Customs duties ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System �������������������
Allowance for jobs initiatives �����������������������������������������������
Other miscellaneous receipts ����������������������������������������������
Total receipts �������������������������������������������������������������

662
192
54
8
76
25
27
73
–20
16
2,426

690
201
60
8
81
22
29
59
–4
16
2,739

712
212
65
8
85
22
32
51
.........
16
2,934

734
224
67
8
91
23
33
46
.........
47
3,161

752
230
67
8
93
24
35
42
.........
52
3,207

776
238
65
8
91
25
37
43
.........
54
3,335

788
242
62
7
92
27
39
43
.........
54
3,427

800
247
59
7
102
28
40
44
.........
55
3,504

812
251
56
7
105
29
43
44
.........
57
3,574

819
254
56
7
104
30
45
44
.........
59
3,622

Deficit ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

1,416

887

696

641

679

656

605

610

650

690

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–6. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY ADJUSTED
FOR INFLATION AND POPULATION GROWTH

29

30

Table S–6. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY ADJUSTED FOR
INFLATION AND POPULATION GROWTH—Continued
(In billions of dollars, based on 2011 prices and population)
2011
On-budget deficit ������������������������������������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) ����������������������������������������������������������
Primary deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Net interest ��������������������������������������������������������������������������

1,495
–79
1,195
221

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Security ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
879
Non-security ������������������������������������������������������������������������
441
1,320
Subtotal, appropriated programs �����������������������������

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

988
–101
601
286

805
–109
332
364

756
–115
200
441

798
–119
185
494

782
–126
122
534

726
–121
39
566

725
–114
17
593

755
–105
33
617

780
–90
53
637

775
434
1,209

773
422
1,195

770
422
1,192

769
421
1,190

765
414
1,179

760
410
1,171

756
409
1,165

752
409
1,161

749
412
1,161

Note: Figures displayed in the table do not reflect the impact of any recommendations from the Fiscal Commission.
* $500 million or less.
1
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program, and other estimated TARP obligations
incurred through October 3, 2010.
2
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the
form of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

BEA baseline deficit ����������������������������������������������

1,413

1,404

Adjustments to reflect current policies:
Index to inflation the 2009 parameters of the
AMT �������������������������������������������������������������������

2012

1,012

2013

668

2014

546

2015

481

2016

514

2017

478

2018

408

2019

401

20112015

2020

433

464

3,221

20112020

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–7. BRIDGE FROM BUDGET ENFORCEMENT ACT BASELINE
TO BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT POLICY

5,404

.........

.........

75

31

36

42

50

59

68

78

90

103

235

633

Continue the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts 1 ����������������
Prevent reduction in Medicare physician
payments �����������������������������������������������������������

.........

*

130

229

255

278

303

325

343

360

376

392

1,196

2,992

.........

.........

14

28

33

35

37

39

42

45

51

56

148

382

Correct baseline growth rates for pay increases �
Subtotal ����������������������������������������������������������

.........

.........

–2

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–4

–4

–4

–14

–32

.........

*

216

287

321

353

387

419

450

480

514

548

1,564

3,975

Adjustment to reflect costs of possible
emergencies 2 �����������������������������������������������������

.........

1

2

4

4

4

5

5

5

5

5

5

19

44

Adjustments to Pell Grants:
Reflect cost of funding existing maximum grant
award �����������������������������������������������������������������

.........

.........

2

3

12

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

42

108

Remove Pell Grants from appropriated category ����

–19

–28

–25

–21

–31

–31

–31

–32

–32

–33

–33

–34

–138

–303

Add Pell Grants to mandatory category ��������������
Subtotal ����������������������������������������������������������

19

28

25

21

31

31

31

32

32

33

33

34

138

303

.........

.........

2

3

12

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

42

108

Total program adjustments ����������������������������������

.........

1

221

293

338

370

405

437

468

498

532

566

1,625

4,126

Debt service on adjustments ��������������������������������
Total adjustments ������������������������������������������

.........

*

1

6

21

45

66

88

112

138

167

200

139

845

.........

1

221

299

359

415

471

525

580

636

699

766

1,765

4,971

Baseline projection of current policy deficit ����

1,413

1,405

1,233

967

904

896

985

1,003

987

1,037

1,132

1,230

4,986 10,375

*$500 million or less.
1
In continuing the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, the estate tax is maintained at its 2009 parameters.
2
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

31

32

Table S–8. CHANGE IN THE BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT
POLICY FROM BUDGET TO MSR
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2010
February deficits in the baseline
projection of current policy ����������������
Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2011–
2015

2020

2011–
2020

1,145
7.5%

934
5.8%

940
5.5%

934
5.1%

983
5.1%

1,013
5.0%

1,042
4.9%

1,077
4.9%

1,227
5.3%

1,346
5.6%

4,936

10,640

7

–3

–20

–50

–48

–8

7

3

–8

–18

–29

–130

–174

–2

–4

5

–3

2

–*

*

1

2

2

2

–*

6

20

2

*

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

3

3

5
–3
1
*
28

4
–*
1
*
–*

–2
2
–5
*
–20

–3
*
–7
–*
–62

–19
–1
–7
–2
–76

–1
–1
–8
–3
–20

15
–1
–9
–1
11

–1
–1
–9
–1
–8

1
–1
–10
–2
–18

–3
–1
–11
–4
–34

8
–1
–12
–6
–39

–21
*
–26
–5
–179

*
–3
–77
–19
–265

Revisions due to updated economic assumptions:
Receipts ����������������������������������������������
–6
Mandatory outlays �����������������������������
–14
Net interest ����������������������������������������
–6
Subtotal, economic revisions ��������������������
–26

9
–1
–29
–22

20
–3
–48
–31

19
–5
–52
–39

16
–7
–40
–31

12
–6
–29
–23

16
–7
–23
–14

18
–7
–19
–7

21
–6
–15
1

20
–5
–11
4

18
–5
–10
3

76
–23
–199
–146

168
–52
–276
–160

Revisions due to updated technical assumptions:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������
70

96

70

48

10

6

–4

–15

–35

–45

–52

230

80

–7
–22

4
15

2
10

1
8

*
5

–*
4

2
4

2
6

2
2

2
2

2
2

7
41

16
57

–*
–2
–24

–7
–8
–12

1
–6
–5

–1
–4
–4

–11
13
–3

–9
10
–2

–21
1
–2

–17
–4
–2

–11
–3
–1

–21
–3
–*

–18
–3
–*

–27
5
–26

–115
–7
–32

–9

10

2

2

3

3

3

4

4

4

5

19

39

Revisions due to enacted legislation:
Affordable Care Act ����������������������������
Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility
Act ���������������������������������������������������
Temporary extensions of
unemployment benefits�������������������
Other legislative changes:
Receipts ��������������������������������������������
Discretionary outlays ���������������������
Mandatory outlays �������������������������
Debt service on legislative changes �������
Subtotal, enacted legislation ��������������������

Discretionary outlays:
Security ��������������������������������������������
Non-security ������������������������������������
Mandatory outlays:
Medicare ������������������������������������������
Medicaid ������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �������
Veterans Compensation and
Pension �����������������������������������������

MID-SESSION REVIEW

1,430
9.8%

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2011–
2015

2020

2011–
2020

Other ������������������������������������������������
Net interest ����������������������������������������
Disaster costs �������������������������������������
Subtotal, technical revisions ��������������������
Total changes since February ��������������������

–35
3
–1
–28
–25

12
1
–1
110
87

12
–1
–*
84
33

15
*
–*
65
–35

44
9
–*
70
–38

24
11
–*
46
2

–1
11
–*
–7
–10

–23
10
.........
–39
–54

10
10
.........
–23
–40

–11
7
.........
–65
–95

–20
4
.........
–80
–116

108
20
–2
375
50

63
62
–2
161
–265

MSR deficits in the baseline projection
of current policy ������������������������������������
Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������

1,405
9.6%

1,233
8.0%

967
6.0%

904
5.3%

896
4.9%

985
5.2%

1,003
5.0%

987
4.7%

1,037
4.7%

1,132
4.9%

1,230
5.1%

4,986

10,375

Memorandum:
February funding (“budgetary resources”)
for appropriated programs ��������������������

1,260

1,290

1,319

1,351

1,383

1,416

1,450

1,486

1,524

1,562

1,602

6,760

14,385

Change in funding:
Security ��������������������������������������������
Non-security ������������������������������������

.........
–1

.........
1

.........
1

.........
1

*
1

.........
1

.........
1

–*
1

–*
1

–*
1

–*
1

*
5

–*
10

–1
1,260

1
1,291

1
1,320

1
1,352

1
1,384

1
1,417

1
1,451

1
1,487

1
1,525

1
1,563

1
1,604

5
6,764

10
14,395

Total change in funding ��������������
MSR funding for appropriated programs: 

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–8. CHANGE IN THE BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT
POLICY FROM BUDGET TO MSR—Continued

* $500 million or less.

33

34

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

Temporary Recovery Measures (emergency):
Tax Cuts:
Extend making work pay tax credit in 2011 1 ���
Extend COBRA health insurance premium
assistance 1 �������������������������������������������������
Provide additional tax credits for
investment in qualified property used in a
qualified advanced energy manufacturing
project ���������������������������������������������������������
Extend temporary bonus depreciation for
certain property �����������������������������������������
Extend option for grants to States in lieu of
housing tax credits 1 �����������������������������������
Total, tax cuts ���������������������������������������������

......... 29,668 30,447

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

60,115

60,115

725

1,918

821

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

2,739

2,739

.........

284

731

1,145

1,114

539

122

–72

–114

–62

–26

3,813

3,661

9,046 21,370 –9,424 –5,786 –3,884 –2,876 –1,838 –1,157

–698

–494

–453

–600

–5,240

2,435 1,798
–91
–269
–429
–511
–538
–538
–538
–538
–538
12,206 55,038 22,484 –4,910 –3,199 –2,848 –2,254 –1,767 –1,350 –1,094 –1,017

498
66,565

–2,192
59,083

Mandatory Initiatives:
21,671
200

.........
17

.........
4

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

21,671
221

21,671
221

15,000

4,000

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

19,000

19,000

23,000
1,357

.........
1,363

.........
273

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

23,000
2,993

23,000
2,993

29
762

36
95

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

65
857

65
857

–1,888

–2

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1,890

–1,890

1,800
2,000
63,931

2,100
.........
7,609

1,020
.........
1,297

600
.........
600

180
.........
180

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

5,700
2,000
73,617

5,700
2,000
73,617

40,000

7,500

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

47,500

47,500

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Provide 6-month extension of FMAP relief to States:
Medicaid impact �����������������������������������������
.........
.........
Foster care impact ��������������������������������������
Establish funds to prevent firing of teachers,
firefighters, and police officers ������������������
6,000
Extend EUC/EB unemployment insurance
benefits ������������������������������������������������������� 17,000
Enhance TANF emergency fund �������������������
508
Extend ARRA suspension of SNAP time
limits ����������������������������������������������������������
.........
Provide $250 Economic Recovery Payments 2 ��� 13,611
Interaction with the making work pay tax
credit �������������������������������������������������������
–866
Provide rebates for energy efficiency home
retrofits �������������������������������������������������������
300
Enhance small business lending �������������������
1,000
Total, mandatory initiatives ���������������������� 37,553
Allowance for other jobs initiatives 2, 3����������
2,500

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Climate policy (deficit-neutral reserve) 4 ���������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

81

1,611

1,576

1,553

1,544

1,554

1,571

1,596

1,625

1,649

6,365

14,360

.........

382

1,340

1,355

1,366

1,364

1,364

1,358

1,351

1,325

1,323

5,807

12,528

.........
.........
.........

.........
323
103

506
2,683
5,386

825
2,996
5,844

876
3,029
6,151

982
3,109
6,644

1,113
3,195
7,097

1,261
3,323
7,159

1,423
3,490
7,025

1,604
3,716
7,068

1,801
3,910
7,158

3,189
12,140
24,128

10,391
29,774
59,635

.........
.........

......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
889 11,526 12,596 12,975 13,643 14,323 14,672 14,885 15,338 15,841

.........
51,629

.........
126,688

.........

.........

.........

.........

55

280

2,248

335

8,055

.........
.........
.........

8,408
354
8,762

5,963
230
6,193

6,608
241
6,849

7,265
252
7,572

7,922
269
8,471

8,571 9,211 9,843 10,476 11,120
285
301
317
334
353
9,587 10,729 11,751 12,743 13,721

36,166
1,346
37,847

85,387
2,936
96,378

66 30,500 14,685

2,140

1,720

1,601

1,424

50,646

58,001

–43,000

–90,000

–96

–296

–1,029

–2,550

–71

–171

–44,196

–93,017

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

Other Tax Provisions: 5
Tax Cuts for Families and Individuals: 6
Expand earned income tax credit 1 ���������������
Expand the child and dependent care tax
credit 1 ���������������������������������������������������������
Provide for automatic enrollment in IRAs
and double the tax credit for small
employer plan startup costs 1 ��������������������
Expand saver’s credit 1 �����������������������������������
Extend American opportunity tax credit 1 ����
Provide exclusion from income for student
loan forgiveness ����������������������������������������
Total, tax cuts for families and individuals ���
Tax Cuts for Businesses:
Eliminate capital gains taxation on small
businesses ��������������������������������������������������
Make research and experimentation tax
credit permanent ���������������������������������������
Remove cell phones from listed property �����
Total, tax cuts for businesses ���������������������
Continue certain expiring provisions
through calendar year 2011 1 ����������������������

731

1,217

1,201

1,591

1,350

1,933

1,647

1,733

Other Revenue Changes and Loophole Closers:

Subtotal, reform treatment of financial
institutions and products �������������������

......... –8,107 –8,241 –9,261 –9,283 –9,304 –9,324 –9,343 –9,363 –10,384 –10,407

35

Reform treatment of financial institutions and products:
Impose a financial crisis responsibility fee ���
......... –8,000 –8,000 –9,000 –9,000 –9,000 –9,000 –9,000 –9,000 –10,000 –10,000
Require accrual of income on forward sale
.........
–6
–12
–19
–26
–33
–36
–38
–40
–42
–44
of corporate stock �����������������������������������
Require ordinary treatment of income
from day-to-day dealer activities for
certain dealers of equity options and
commodities ��������������������������������������������
.........
–95
–214
–226
–240
–254
–270
–286
–303
–321
–341
Modify the definition of “control” for
purposes of Section 249 ��������������������������
.........
–6
–15
–16
–17
–17
–18
–19
–20
–21
–22

36

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Reinstate Superfund taxes ����������������������������
Increase Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund
financing rate by one cent �������������������������
Repeal LIFO method of accounting for
inventories �������������������������������������������������
Repeal gain limitation for dividends
received in reorganization exchanges �������
Reform U.S. international tax system:
Defer deduction of interest expense
related to deferred income ���������������������
Reform foreign tax credit: Determine the
foreign tax credit on a pooling basis ������
Reform foreign tax credit: Prevent
splitting of foreign income and foreign
taxes ��������������������������������������������������������
Tax currently excess returns associated
with transfers of intangibles offshore ���
Limit shifting of income through
intangible property transfers ����������������
Disallow the deduction for excess
nontaxed reinsurance premiums paid to
affiliates ��������������������������������������������������
Limit earnings stripping by expatriated
entities ����������������������������������������������������
Repeal 80/20 company rules ����������������������
Modify tax rules for dual capacity
taxpayers ������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, reform U.S. international tax
system �����������������������������������������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

......... –1,173 –1,619 –1,749 –1,859 –1,953 –2,034 –2,097 –2,155 –2,208 –2,249
.........
.........
.........

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

–8,353

–19,096

–46

–234

–471

......... –2,667 –6,007 –7,070 –7,120 –7,162 –7,224 –7,207 –7,278 –7,350

–22,864

–59,085

–46

–46

–669

–673

–17,317

–28,715

......... –2,128 –3,559 –3,535 –3,574 –3,698 –3,803 –3,846 –3,846 –3,778 –3,798

–16,494

–35,565

......... –1,147 –2,016 –2,180 –2,310 –2,402 –2,453 –2,461 –2,438 –2,395 –2,363

–10,055

–22,165

–277

–305

–1,343

–620 –1,554 –1,543 –1,560 –1,614 –1,660 –1,679 –1,679 –1,649 –1,659

–6,891

–15,217

.........

–142

–33

–47

......... –2,235 –3,737 –3,711 –3,752 –3,882 –3,992 –4,038 –2,026

–113

–33

–50

–309

–85

–32

–48

–144

–59

–31

–48

–33

–35

–31

–47

–33

–13

–31

–47

–33

.........

–19

–46

–173

–206

–240

.........

–22

–53

–54

–53

–49

–50

–53

–57

–60

–64

–231

–515

.........
.........

–211
–83

–352
–111

–350
–111

–354
–112

–366
–116

–376
–120

–381
–122

–380
–123

–374
–124

–376
–127

–1,633
–533

–3,520
–1,149

.........

–436

–750

–795

–841

–888

–933

–977 –1,021 –1,065 –1,112

–3,710

–8,818

–57,169 –117,007

Eliminate fossil fuel tax preferences:
Oil and gas company preferences:
Repeal enhanced oil recovery credit 7 ����

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Repeal credit for oil and gas produced
from marginal wells 7 ������������������������

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Repeal expensing of intangible drilling
costs ���������������������������������������������������

......... –1,336 –1,788 –1,276 –1,087

–997

–812

–569

–446

–409

–372

–6,484

–9,092

MID-SESSION REVIEW

......... –6,895 –12,167 –12,338 –12,641 –13,128 –13,529 –13,730 –11,776 –10,354 –10,449

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

Repeal deduction for tertiary
injectants ������������������������������������������

.........

–5

–9

–9

–8

–7

–6

–6

–5

–6

–6

–38

–67

Repeal exception to passive loss
limitations for working interests in
oil and natural gas properties ����������

.........

–20

–24

–19

–18

–17

–17

–17

–16

–16

–16

–98

–180

Repeal percentage depletion for oil
and natural gas wells �����������������������

.........

–582

–989 –1,014 –1,032 –1,049 –1,070 –1,093 –1,117 –1,140 –1,160

–4,666

–10,246

Repeal domestic manufacturing tax
deduction for oil and natural gas
companies �����������������������������������������

.........

–755 –1,303 –1,381 –1,462 –1,543 –1,623 –1,702 –1,779 –1,858 –1,939

–6,444

–15,345

Increase geological and geophysical
amortization period for independent
producers to seven years ������������������

.........

–16

–871

–1,118

......... –2,742 –4,274 –3,949 –3,843 –3,793 –3,652 –3,453 –3,389 –3,444 –3,509

–18,601

–36,048

Subtotal, oil and gas company
preferences �������������������������������������
Coal tax preferences:

–44

–161

–250

–236

–180

–124

–66

–26

–15

Repeal expensing of exploration and
development costs �����������������������������

.........

–34

–60

–52

–47

–46

–44

–40

–36

–34

–31

–239

–424

Repeal percentage depletion for hard
mineral fossil fuels ���������������������������

.........

–57

–98

–102

–106

–109

–111

–115

–119

–122

–123

–472

–1,062

Repeal capital gains treatment for
royalties ��������������������������������������������

.........

–28

–25

–48

–67

–78

–87

–95

–103

–111

–119

–246

–761

.........
.........

–10
–129

–17
–200

–18
–220

–19
–239

–20
–253

–21
–263

–22
–272

–23
–281

–24
–291

–26
–299

–84
–1,041

–200
–2,447

......... –2,871 –4,474 –4,169 –4,082 –4,046 –3,915 –3,725 –3,670 –3,735 –3,808
.........
–878 –2,051 –2,654 –2,829 –2,654 –2,304 –1,935 –1,605 –1,527 –1,204

–19,642
–11,066

–38,495
–19,641

Repeal domestic manufacturing
deduction for hard mineral fossil
fuels ���������������������������������������������������

.........
.........

–106
.........

.........

.........

.........

–64
–23

–62
–33

–61
–34

–60
–35

–61
–35

–61
–36

–63
–36

–65
–37

–68
–37

–353
–125

–671
–306

–286 –1,423 –2,045 –1,402 –1,127

–283

–296

–309

–323

–5,156

–7,494

......... –1,437 –1,480 –1,516 –1,558 –1,586 –1,604 –1,616 –1,624 –1,628

–5,991

–14,049

37

Subtotal, coal tax preferences ������������
Subtotal, eliminate fossil fuel tax
preferences ������������������������������������
Tax carried interest as ordinary income ������
Eliminate advanced earned income tax
credit 1 ���������������������������������������������������������
Deny deduction for punitive damages ����������
Repeal lower-of-cost-or-market inventory
accounting method �������������������������������������
Make unemployment insurance surtax
permanent ��������������������������������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

38

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

Reduce the tax gap and make reforms:
Expand information reporting:
.........

–114

–249

–295

–309

–323

–336

–348

–362

–373

–384

–1,290

–3,093

Require information reporting for
private separate accounts of life
insurance companies ������������������������

.........

–1

–2

–3

–4

–4

–6

–7

–8

–10

–12

–14

–57

Require a certified Taxpayer
Identification Number for
contractors ����������������������������������������

.........

–17

–44

–63

–72

–76

–79

–83

–86

–90

–94

–272

–704

Require increased information
reporting for certain government
payments �������������������������������������������

.........

–25

–70

–58

–28

–30

–32

–34

–35

–37

–39

–211

–388

Increase information return penalties 

.........

–20

–34

–35

–35

–36

–42

–43

–43

–44

–44

–160

–376

Subtotal, expand information
reporting �����������������������������������������
Improve compliance by businesses:

.........

–177

–399

–454

–448

–469

–495

–515

–534

–554

–573

–1,947

–4,618

Require electronic filing by certain
large organizations ���������������������������

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Implement standards clarifying when
employee leasing companies can be
held liable for their clients’ Federal
employment taxes �����������������������������

.........

–4

–6

–6

–7

–7

–7

–8

–8

–9

–9

–30

–71

Strengthen rules pertaining to
classification of employees as
independent contractors �������������������

.........

–11

–211

–537

–681

–758

–839

–923 –1,011 –1,103 –1,201

–2,198

–7,275

.........

–15

–217

–543

–688

–765

–846

–931 –1,019 –1,112 –1,210

–2,228

–7,346

Allow assessment of criminal
restitution as tax ������������������������������

.........

.........

–2

–3

–3

–4

–4

–4

–4

–4

–4

–12

–32

Revise offer-in-compromise application
rules ���������������������������������������������������

.........

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–3

–3

–3

–3

–10

–24

Subtotal, improve compliance by
businesses ���������������������������������������
Strengthen tax administration:

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Require information reporting for
rental property expense payments ��

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

Expand IRS access to information in
the National Directory of New Hires
for tax administration purposes ������

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Make repeated willful failure to file a
tax return a felony ���������������������������

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–2

–2

–2

–2

–10

Facilitate tax compliance with local
jurisdictions �������������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–6

Extend statute of limitations where
State adjustment affects Federal
tax liability ����������������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

.........

–2

–4

–4

–4

–4

–4

–4

–6

–26

Improve investigative disclosure
statute ����������������������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–2

–2

–2

–2

–10

.........

–2

–4

–5

–9

–13

–13

–14

–16

–16

–16

–33

–108

.........

–1

–2

–2

–2

–3

–3

–3

–3

–4

–4

–10

–27

.........
.........

.........
–1

.........
–2

.........
–2

.........
–2

–1
–4

–1
–4

–1
–4

–2
–5

–2
–6

–2
–6

–1
–11

–9
–36

–182

–192

–204

–216

–229

–243

–258

–273

–829

–2,048

–222 –1,403 –1,510 –1,650 –1,797 –1,952 –2,114 –2,284 –2,464 –2,651

–6,582

–18,047

–651

–467

–2,784

.........

–307 –1,610 –1,766 –1,982 –2,213 –2,456 –2,713 –2,984 –3,273 –3,575

–7,878

–22,879

.........

–502 –2,232 –2,770 –3,129 –3,464 –3,814 –4,177 –4,558 –4,961 –5,380

–12,097

–34,987

Subtotal, strengthen tax
administration ��������������������������������
Expand penalties:
Clarify the bad check penalty applies
to electronic checks and other
payment forms ����������������������������������
Impose a penalty on failure to comply
with electronic filing requirements ���
Subtotal, expand penalties ����������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

Modify estate and gift tax valuation discounts and make other reforms:
Require consistent valuation for
transfer and income tax purposes ���

.........

Modify rules on valuation discounts ���

.........

Require a minimum term for grantor
retained annuity trusts (GRATs) �����

.........

Subtotal, modify estate and gift tax
valuation discounts and make
other reforms ����������������������������������
Subtotal, reduce the tax gap and
make reforms ������������������������������
Reform treatment of insurance institutions
and products:

–80

–5

–171

–36

–74

–140

–212

–288

–370

–457

–551

39

40

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Modify rules that apply to sales of life
insurance contracts ��������������������������������
Modify dividends-received deduction
for life insurance company separate
accounts ��������������������������������������������������
Expand pro rata interest expense
disallowance for corporate-owned life
insurance ������������������������������������������������
Permit partial annuitization of a
nonqualified annuity contract ���������������
Subtotal, reform treatment of life
insurance and products �����������������
Total, other revenue changes and
loophole closers �������������������������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

.........

–22

–71

–84

–101

–117

–136

–156

–179

–204

–233

–395

–1,303

.........

–142

–361

–389

–420

–438

–463

–469

–469

–455

–444

–1,750

–4,050

.........

–20

–87

–183

–276

–437

–659

–910 –1,293 –1,731 –2,188

–1,003

–7,784

.........

–5

–21

–39

–59

–81

–105

–132

–226

–205

–1,020

.........

–189

–540

–695

–856 –1,073 –1,363 –1,667 –2,101 –2,582 –3,091

–3,353

–14,157

–160

–192

......... –20,786 –35,878 –42,719 –45,483 –45,877 –46,335 –45,965 –44,526 –45,143 –46,073 –190,743 –418,785

Upper-Income Tax Provisions:
Upper-income tax provisions devoted to deficit reduction:
Expand the 28-percent rate and reinstate
the 36-percent and 39.6-percent rates
for those taxpayers with income over
$250,000 (married) and $200,000
......... –12,822 –23,969 –27,502 –31,249 –34,757 –38,105 –41,442 –44,559 –47,839 –51,214 –130,299 –353,458
(single) ����������������������������������������������������
Reinstate the personal exemption
phaseout and limitation on itemized
deductions for those taxpayers with
income over $250,000 (married) and
......... –6,201 –13,827 –16,102 –18,078 –20,198 –22,238 –24,253 –26,128 –27,965 –29,825 –74,406 –204,815
$200,000 (single) ������������������������������������
Impose 20-percent tax rate on capital
gains and dividends for those taxpayers
with income over $250,000 (married)
......... –11,452 1,457 –1,035 –4,409 –7,430 –8,390 –9,138 –9,640 –10,030 –10,335 –22,869 –70,402
and $200,000 (single) �����������������������������

Limit the tax rate at which itemized
deductions reduce tax liability to 28
percent ��������������������������������������������������������
Total, upper-income tax provisions �����������
Trade Initiatives:
Promote trade ������������������������������������������������

......... –30,475 –36,339 –44,639 –53,736 –62,385 –68,733 –74,833 –80,327 –85,834 –91,374 –227,574 –628,675
......... –7,456 –20,481 –23,566 –26,459 –29,234 –31,819 –34,471 –37,033 –39,534 –42,192 –107,196 –292,245
......... –37,931 –56,820 –68,205 –80,195 –91,619–100,552–109,304–117,360–125,368–133,566 –334,770 –920,920
.........

145

430

552

606

647

680

705

729

753

777

2,380

6,024

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Subtotal, upper-income provisions
devoted to deficit reduction ��������������

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Other Initiatives:
Extend and modify the New Markets tax
credit ����������������������������������������������������������
Reform and extend build America bonds 1 ����

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

.........
.........
.........

113
–7
106

229
3
232

345
4
349

430
4
434

480
3
483

511
3
514

510
3
513

441
3
444

279
3
282

103
3
106

1,597
7
1,604

3,441
22
3,463

.........

–20

–27

–27

–28

–29

–30

–31

–32

–33

–34

–131

–291

.........

–11

–13

–13

–13

–14

–14

–14

–14

–15

–15

–64

–136

.........

–29

–30

–31

–31

–31

–32

–32

–32

–33

–34

–152

–315

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

–19
–2
–1
860
–8
770

–19
.........
–172
1,000
–38
701

–19
.........
–201
1,000
–40
669

–19
.........
–241
1,000
–40
628

–19
.........
–245
1,000
–40
622

–19
.........
–258
1,000
–40
607

–19
.........
–262
1,000
–40
602

–19
.........
–277
1,000
–40
586

–19
.........
–297
1,000
–40
563

–19
.........
–309
1,000
–40
549

–95
–2
–860
4,860
–166
3,390

–190
–2
–2,263
9,860
–366
6,297

Commerce:
Eliminate grants to manufacturers of
worsted wool �����������������������������������������������������

.........

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–25

–25

Corps of Engineers:
Support capital investment in the inland
waterways (receipt effect) 2 �������������������������������

.........

.........

–196

–163

–187

–129

–100

–72

–70

–68

–68

–675

–1,053

.........

217

346

435

511

531

541

550

560

570

581

2,040

4,842

.........

408

395

406

416

426

440

455

470

486

503

2,051

4,405

.........
.........

–408
469

–395
487

–406
505

–416
524

–426
604

–440
627

–455
651

–470
675

–486
700

–503
727

–2,051
2,589

–4,405
5,969

Total, other initiatives ��������������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

Mandatory Initiatives and Savings: 8
Agriculture:
Enact Animal Plant and Health Inspection
Service (APHIS) fees �����������������������������������������
Enact Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS)
performance fee �������������������������������������������������
Enact Grain Inspection, Packers, and Stockyards
Administration (GIPSA) fees ����������������������������
Enact Natural Resources Conservation Service
(NRCS) fee ���������������������������������������������������������
Eliminate Commodity Storage payments ������������
Reduce commodity payments to wealthy farmers ���
Reauthorize Child Nutrition Programs ���������������
Reform Market Access Program ���������������������������
Total, Agriculture �������������������������������������������

Defense:

41

Implement concurrent receipt policy:
Effect on military retirement ������������������������
Accrual payments to the Military
Retirement Fund ���������������������������������������
Military Retirement Fund offsetting receipts
for concurrent receipt accruals �����������������
Payments to Military Retirement Fund �������

42

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Military Retirement Fund offsetting receipts ���

.........

2011

2012

–469

2013

–487

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

–505

–524

–604

–627

–651

–675

–700

–727

–2,589

–5,969

Provide additional accrual payments to Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care
Fund ���������������������������������������������������������������
.........
–143
......... .........
Total, Defense ������������������������������������������������
.........
74
346
435

.........
511

.........
531

.........
541

.........
550

.........
560

.........
570

.........
581

–143
1,897

–143
4,699

Energy:
Repeal ultra-deepwater oil and gas research and
development program ���������������������������������������

.........

–20

–40

–50

–50

–30

–10

.........

.........

.........

.........

–190

–200

Environmental Protection Agency:
Enact pesticide and pre-manufacture notification
(PMN) fees ���������������������������������������������������������

.........

–50

–54

–80

–83

–89

–89

–92

–92

–95

–95

–356

–819

.........

502

753

961

1,115

1,106

1,142

1,226

1,314

1,403

1,493

4,437

11,015

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

555
1,460
3
–58
251

114
1,475
2
–139
61

.........
1,115
1
–884
7

.........
690
.........
–966
.........

......... ......... .........
373
285
258
......... ......... .........
–993 –1,001 –1,004
......... ......... .........

.........
250
.........
–973
.........

.........
250
.........
–972
.........

.........
250
.........
–993
.........

669
5,113
6
–3,040
319

669
6,406
6
–7,983
319

.........
.........

.........
1

175
–2

105
–2

70
–2

.........
–2

.........
–2

.........
–2

.........
–2

.........
–2

.........
–2

350
–7

350
–17

.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
1
20
2,735

251
4
42
2,736

315
16
48
1,682

319
18
49
1,293

319
20
50
873

319
19
50
812

319
16
50
863

319
4
50
962

319
2
50
1,050

319
.........
50
1,117

1,204
59
209
9,319

2,799
100
459
14,123

Homeland Security:
Eliminate grants to manufacturers of worsted
wool ��������������������������������������������������������������������

.........

5

5

5

5

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

20

20

Housing and Urban Development:
Provide funding for the Affordable Housing
Trust Fund ��������������������������������������������������������

.........

20

140

250

250

240

100

.........

.........

.........

.........

900

1,000

Health and Human Services (HHS):

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Expand child care entitlement to states ��������������
Extend ARRA child support enforcement
incentive match provision ���������������������������������
Create a LIHEAP trigger �������������������������������������
Continue child welfare study �������������������������������
Expand CMS program integrity authority ����������
Extend TANF supplemental grants ���������������������
Establish Fatherhood, Marriage, and Families
Innovation Fund �����������������������������������������������
Improve child support enforcement tools ������������
Outyear costs of extending TANF supplemental
grants �����������������������������������������������������������������
Reauthorize the Court Improvement Program ���
Support teen pregnancy prevention ���������������������
Total, HHS �����������������������������������������������������

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Interior:
Increase fees for migratory bird hunting and
conservation stamps 2 ����������������������������������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

.........

–4

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–4

–4

.........

–115

–171

–177

–176

–97

–72

–75

–123

–140

–95

–736

–1,241

.........

–8

–22

–38

–53

–68

–81

–98

–115

–134

–152

–189

–769

.........

.........

–22

–22

–21

–20

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–85

–85

.........

–4

–6

–11

–12

–3

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–36

–36

.........

–8

–8

–8

–8

–8

–8

–8

–8

–8

–8

–40

–80

.........
.........
.........

.........
21
–118

–38
21
–246

–40
21
–275

–44
21
–293

–50
16
–230

–49
16
–194

–51
16
–216

–52
16
–282

–55
16
–321

–57
15
–297

–172
100
–1,162

–436
179
–2,472

Labor:
Implement unemployment insurance integrity
legislation 2, 9 ������������������������������������������������������
Reform FECA program �����������������������������������������
Extend foreign labor certification fees �����������������
Reform Trade Adjustment Assistance ������������������
Total, Labor ����������������������������������������������������

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
–10
.........
139
129

–246
–14
.........
532
272

–343
–7
1
796
447

–281
–10
17
1,033
759

–210
–20
18
938
726

–235
–29
18
856
610

–286
–39
20
807
502

–61
–50
20
799
708

5
–60
20
816
781

–264
–71
21
847
533

–1,080
–61
36
3,438
2,333

–1,921
–310
135
7,563
5,467

State:
Change retention policy for consular fees (receipt
effect) 2 ����������������������������������������������������������������

.........

782

1,108

1,123

1,138

1,155

1,171

1,189

1,207

1,225

1,244

5,306

11,342

–115

–119

–124

–109

–113

–118

–122

–127

–132

–531

–1,143

–87
–5

–86
–126

–90
–150

–78
–56

–82
88

–85
186

–88
–62

–92
–13

–96
–8

–392
–323

–835
–132

Increase return from minerals on Federal lands:
End Abandoned Mine Lands (AML)
payments to certified States ���������������������
Impose fee on nonproducing oil and gas
leases ����������������������������������������������������������
Repeal Energy Policy Act fee prohibition and
mandatory permit funds ���������������������������
Reauthorize Federal land sales/acquisition law
(FLTFA) �������������������������������������������������������������
Repeal geothermal payments to counties under
EPAct �����������������������������������������������������������������
Return to net receipts sharing for energy
minerals �������������������������������������������������������������
Reserve funds for insular affairs assistance ��������
Total, Interior �������������������������������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

Treasury:

43

Levy payments to Federal contractors with delinquent tax debt:
Authorize post-levy due process (receipt
effect) 2 ����������������������������������������������������������
.........
–64
Increase levy authority to 100 percent for
vendor payments (receipt effect) 2 �������������
.........
–51
Revise terrorism risk insurance program 2 ����������
.........
14

44

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

Offset tax refunds to collect deliquent taxes for
out-of-state residents ����������������������������������������
Establish FMS debt collection fee ������������������������

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

Restructure assistance to New York City:
Provide tax incentives for transportation
infrastructure (receipt effect) 2 �������������������������
Total, Treasury �����������������������������������������������

.........
.........

200
99

200
–7

200
–131

200
–164

200
–43

200
93

200
183

200
–72

200
–32

200
–36

1,000
–246

2,000
–110

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

47
.........
.........
–3
.........
.........
.........
44

49
–559
313
–6
2
20
–86
–267

51
–571
326
–10
1
–7
–99
–309

53
–584
339
–13
.........
–13
–5
–223

54
–597
353
–16
–1
–20
.........
–227

54
–611
367
–20
–2
–27
.........
–239

54
.........
.........
–23
–3
.........
.........
28

53
.........
.........
–27
–4
.........
.........
22

53
.........
.........
–30
–5
.........
.........
18

52
.........
.........
–33
–5
.........
.........
14

254
–2,311
1,331
–48
2
–20
–190
–982

520
–2,922
1,698
–181
–17
–47
–190
–1,139

.........
.........
–50

–100
.........
–200

–75
.........
–300

–25
–200
–425

.........
–200
–550

.........
–200
–550

.........
–200
–550

.........
–200
–550

.........
–200
–550

.........
–200
–550

.........
–200
–550

–200
–600
–2,025

–200
–1,600
–4,775

–3
–53

–7
–307

–7
–382

–7
–657

–6
–756

–6
–756

–6
–756

–6
–756

–6
–756

–6
–756

–6
–756

–33
–2,858

–63
–6,638

Social Security Administration:
Require States and localities to provide pension
information ��������������������������������������������������������
Revert to Quarterly Wage Reporting �������������������
Total, Social Security Administration ����������

.........
.........
.........

.........
20
20

.........
30
30

.........
100
100

–172
.........
–172

–375
.........
–375

–492
.........
–492

–523
.........
–523

–478
.........
–478

–452
.........
–452

–417
.........
–417

–547
150
–397

–2,909
150
–2,759

Other Independent Agencies:
Reform financial regulatory system ���������������������

.........

867

1,595

2,204

2,583

2,893

3,052

2,397

1,855

1,433

1,141

10,142

20,020

Veterans Affairs:
Implement concurrent receipt policy:
Effect on Veterans disability payments ��������
Extend VBA pension limitation ���������������������������
Medicaid impact ��������������������������������������������
Reform criteria for special monthly pension �������
Extend VBA authority for use of HHS data ��������
Extend veterans income verification ��������������������
Provide authority for vendee loan pooling �����������
Total, Veterans Affairs �����������������������������������
Federal Communications Commission (FCC):
Auction domestic satellite spectrum ��������������������
Provide permanent auction authority ������������������
Enact spectrum license user fee ���������������������������
Eliminate Telecommunications Development
Fund �������������������������������������������������������������������
Total, FCC ������������������������������������������������������

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Reflect discrimination claims settlement ������������
Total, other independent agencies ����������������
Multi-Agency:
Fund Cobell settlement costs �������������������������������
Implement program integrity allocation
adjustments 2 �����������������������������������������������������
Exclude refundable tax credits from meanstested programs ������������������������������������������������
Reform asset limits in means-tested programs ���
Total, multi-agency ����������������������������������������
Total, mandatory and receipt proposals ������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

690
690

230
1,097

230
1,825

.........
2,204

.........
2,583

.........
2,893

.........
3,052

.........
2,397

.........
1,855

.........
1,433

.........
1,141

460
10,602

460
20,480

1,512

400

400

200

200

200

200

200

100

.........

.........

1,400

1,900

......... –1,866 –4,561 –7,011 –9,459 –12,517 –15,821 –17,955 –19,465 –21,157 –22,527

–35,414 –132,339

21
21
21
20
15
15
14
13
13
12
12
.........
233
464
672
640
595
555
523
501
497
499
1,533 –1,212 –3,676 –6,119 –8,604 –11,707 –15,052 –17,219 –18,851 –20,648 –22,016

92
156
2,604
5,179
–31,318 –125,104

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

54,495 144,717 –19,750 –92,924–108,340–121,870–132,559–141,780–148,778–157,574–166,984 –198,167 –945,842

Note: For receipt effects, positive figures indicate lower receipts. For outlay effects, positive figures indicate higher outlays. For net costs, positive figures indicate
higher deficits.
Note: Figures displayed in the table do not reflect the impact of any recommendations from the Fiscal Commission.
1
The estimates for this proposal include effects on outlays. The outlay effects included in the totals above are listed below:
2010
.........

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

703 20,792

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

21,495

21,495

72

191

83

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

274

274

2,435
.........
.........

1,815
80
.........

.........
1,605
385

.........
1,566
395

.........
1,546
396

.........
1,539
390

.........
1,549
390

.........
1,568
392

1,593
394

.........
1,622
395

.........
1,645
393

1,815
6,336
1,566

1,815
14,313
3,530

.........
.........
.........

.........
570
.........

83
3,715
4,667

146
1,402
4,924

149
1,369
5,187

158
1,366
5,477

177
1,349
5,738

200
1,337
5,781

223
1,339
5,826

250
1,340
5,893

281
1,353
5,951

536
8,422
20,255

1,667
15,140
49,444

66
.........
.........

177
–106
225

170
–64
1,031

150
–62
2,238

143
–61
3,519

142
–60
4,844

142
–61
6,181

142
–61
7,513

142
142
142
–63
–65
–68
8,839 10,159 11,473

782
–353
11,857

1,492
–671
56,022

45

Extend making work pay tax credit in 2011 �������
Extend COBRA health insurance premium
assistance ����������������������������������������������������������
Extend option for grants to States in lieu of
housing tax credits ��������������������������������������������
Expand earned income tax credit ������������������������
Expand child and dependent care tax credit �������
Provide for automatic enrollment in IRAs and
double the tax credit for small employer plan
startup costs ������������������������������������������������������
Expand saver’s credit ��������������������������������������������
Provide American opportunity tax credit ������������
Continue certain expiring provisions through
calendar year 2011 ��������������������������������������������
Eliminate advanced earned income tax credit ����
Reform and extend build America bonds �������������

2011

46

Table S–9. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2010
Total outlay effects of receipt proposals �������
2

2,573

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

3,655 32,467 10,759 12,248 13,856 15,465 16,872 18,293 19,736 21,170

2011–
2015
72,985

2011–
2020
164,521

The estimates for this proposal include effects on receipts. The receipt effects included in the totals above are listed below.
2010

Provide $250 economic recovery payments ���������
Jobs initiatives allowance �������������������������������������
Preserve cost-sharing of inland waterways
capital costs �������������������������������������������������������
Increase fees for migratory bird hunting and
conservation stamps �����������������������������������������
Implement unemployment insurance integrity
legislation ����������������������������������������������������������
Change retention policy for consular fees ������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011–
2015

2011–
2020

–454 –1,360
1,250 20,000

.........
3,750

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

–1,360
23,750

–1,360
23,750

.........

.........

–196

–163

–187

–129

–100

–72

–70

–68

–68

–675

–1,053

.........

–14

–14

–14

–14

–14

–14

–14

–14

–14

–14

–70

–140

.........
.........

.........
782

–37
1,108

–37
1,123

–10
1,138

63
1,155

42
1,171

–2
1,189

234
1,207

313
1,225

58
1,244

–21
5,306

624
11,342

Levy payments to Federal contractors with
delinquent tax debt:
Authorize post-levy due process �������������������
Increase levy authority to 100 percent for
vendor payments ���������������������������������������

.........

–64

–115

–119

–124

–109

–113

–118

–122

–127

–132

–531

–1,143

Revise terrorism risk insurance program ������������
Restructure assistance to New York City:
Provide tax incentives for transportation
infrastructure ����������������������������������������������������
Implement program integrity allocation
adjustments—IRS ���������������������������������������������
Total receipt effects of mandatory proposals 

.........
.........

–51
44

–87
68

–86
4

–90
40

–78
110

–82
211

–85
260

–88
–15

–92
18

–96
19

–392
266

–835
759

.........

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

1,000

2,000

.........
–385 –1,164 –2,355 –3,955 –6,015 –7,987 –9,238 –9,931 –10,378 –10,809
796 19,152 3,513 –1,447 –3,002 –4,817 –6,672 –7,880 –8,599 –8,923 –9,598

–13,874
13,399

–62,217
–28,273
MID-SESSION REVIEW

3
Relative to the February Budget, the allowance for other jobs initiatives has been reduced to reflect the subsequent proposal or enactment of jobs initiatives that
had not been previously specified.
4
A comprehensive market-based climate change policy will be deficit neutral because proceeds from emissions allowances will be used to compensate vulnerable
families, communities, and businesses during the transition to a clean energy economy. Receipts will also be reserved for investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including support of clean energy technologies, and in adapting to the impacts of climate change, both domestically and in developing countries.
5
Receipt effects unless otherwise noted.
6
The Administration continues to support expanding refundability of the child tax credit by lowering the refundability threshold to $3,000, as well as the expansion of the earned income tax credit for married couples by increasing the phase-out threshold by $5,000 compared to other filers. These policies are incorporated in
the baseline projection of current policy.
7
This provision is estimated to have zero receipt effects under the Administration’s current projections for energy prices.
8
Outlay effects unless otherwise noted.
9
Net of income offsets.

(Budgetary resources in billions of dollars)
2009 Actual
NonARRA
Discretionary Policy by Category:
Security Agencies ����������������������
Non-Security Agencies �������������

650.1
407.8

Total, Base Discretionary Funding ��� 1,057.9
Other Discretionary Funding (not
included above):
Overseas Contingency
Operations 2 ���������������������������
Other Supplemental/
Emergency Funding �������������
Proposed 2010 Supplemental
Funding 3 ��������������������������������

Totals

2010
2011
ARRA 1 Enacted
Request 2012
12.0
253.1

683.7
445.7

719.2
441.4

745.9
446.4

2013

2014

767.1
446.2

2015

788.0
459.2

2016

812.4
472.3

2017

833.7
478.8

2018

855.8
488.9

2019

878.5
501.6

2011–
2015

2020

902.1
517.0

2011–
2020

927.0 3,832.6 8,229.7
537.5 2,265.5 4,789.3

265.1 1,129.4 1,160.6 1,192.3 1,213.3 1,247.2 1,284.7 1,312.5 1,344.6 1,380.1 1,419.2 1,464.6 6,098.1 13,019.0

146.0

.........

130.0

159.3

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

359.3

609.3

44.1

.........

0.5

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

46.2

–*

–*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

–*

–*

Grand Total, Discretionary
Budgetary Resources ������������������ 1,247.9
Memorandum:
Base Security Budget Authority
adjusted for Inflation and
Population ������������������������������������ 682.2
Base Non-Security Budgetary
Resources adjusted for Inflation
and Population ����������������������������� 427.9
Grand Total, Discretionary
Budgetary Resources adjusted for
Inflation and Population ������������� 1,309.5
Grand Total, Discretionary
Budgetary Resources as a
Percent of GDP �����������������������������
8.8%

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–10. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED (“DISCRETIONARY”)
PROGRAMS BY CATEGORY

265.1 1,306.1 1,319.9 1,242.3 1,263.3 1,297.2 1,334.7 1,362.5 1,394.6 1,430.1 1,469.2 1,514.6 6,457.4 13,628.3

12.6

696.7

719.2

726.0

725.5

724.0

724.4

721.6

718.4

715.5

712.8

710.6 3,619.0 7,198.0

265.6

454.2

441.4

434.5

422.0

421.8

421.1

414.4

410.4

408.6

408.5

412.1 2,140.9 4,194.8

278.1 1,331.0 1,319.9 1,209.1 1,194.8 1,191.8 1,190.1 1,179.3 1,170.7 1,164.8 1,160.8 1,161.0 6,105.7 11,942.4
1.9%

8.9%

8.6%

7.7%

7.4%

7.2%

7.0%

6.8%

6.6%

6.5%

6.4%

6.3%

7.6%

7.0%

* $50 million or less.
1
“ARRA” refers to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111–5).
2
The Budget includes placeholder estimates of $50 billion per year for Overseas Contingency Operations in 2012 and beyond. These estimates do not reflect any
specific policy decisions.

47

48

Table S–10. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED (“DISCRETIONARY”)
PROGRAMS BY CATEGORY—Continued
(Budgetary resources in billions of dollars)
3
At the time the 2011 Mid-Session Report was prepared, a 2010 Supplemental had not been enacted. Therefore, the Administration’s 2010 Requested Supplemental from
the 2011 Budget, as amended, is included in the estimates. This estimate is updated to include budget amendments and other new requests for FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund,
the earthquake response in Haiti, the Port of Guam, the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, the Title 17 Loan Guarantee Program, security enhancements for the Southwest
Border, and Mine Safety. Although transmitted as a discretionary budget amendment, the requested supplemental does not include funding for 2010 to implement the settlement of a case involving the management of individual Indian trust accounts related to Indian lands (Cobell) or funding to settle claims of prior discrimination brought by
black farmers against the Department of Agriculture (Pigford). It is assumed that this funding will be enacted in a mandatory authorization bill. The 2011 to 2020 levels for
the supplemental (all estimated to be under $50 million per year) are for spending and reimbursement for oil spill employment assistance, oil spill unemployment assistance,
oil spill supplemental nutrition assistance, and oil spill Section 32 response and reflect a probabilistic score that captures any potential Oil Spill of National Significance.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Budgetary resources in billions of dollars)
2009 Actual

Totals

2011
Non- ARRA 1 2010
Enacted Request 2012
ARRA

2013

2014

2015

20112015

20112020

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED (“DISCRETIONARY”)
PROGRAMS BY AGENCY

Base Discretionary Resources by Agency:
Security Agencies:
Defense (DOD) �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy—National Nuclear Security Administration ����������������������������������
Homeland Security (DHS) 2 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������
Veterans Affairs 3 �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
State and Other International Programs 4 ��������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, Security Agencies ����������������������������������������������������������������������������

513.2
9.1
42.1
47.6
38.1
650.1

7.4
.........
2.8
1.4
0.4
12.0

530.8
9.9
39.4
53.1
50.6
683.7

548.9
11.2
43.6
57.0
58.5
719.2

566.4
11.1
44.2
59.7
64.6
745.9

581.8
11.4
44.8
61.3
67.8
767.1

597.8
11.9
45.3
63.0
70.1
788.0

22.6
9.4
3.1
41.4
16.9
77.6
40.0
11.2
26.0
12.9
0.1
70.5
16.8
53.7
12.6
5.3
7.6

6.9
7.8
1.0
81.1
36.7
22.4
13.6
3.0
4.0
4.8
0.2
48.1
48.1
.........
0.3
4.6
7.2

25.0
13.9
7.2
46.8
16.5
84.1
42.9
12.1
27.6
14.3
0.1
76.0
21.8
54.2
13.6
5.4
10.3

23.9
9.0
1.3
49.7
17.2
83.6
41.6
12.0
24.1
14.0
0.1
77.6
22.8
54.8
13.9
4.9
10.0

24.6
9.1
1.1
50.1
17.2
82.4
41.3
11.8
28.5
13.5
0.1
79.2
70.0
9.3
14.1
4.7
9.4

24.5
8.8
1.2
50.2
17.3
80.7
42.0
11.8
28.0
13.1
0.1
80.6
33.8
46.8
14.5
4.6
8.8

25.2
8.5
1.3
51.4
17.8
83.1
44.1
12.2
29.0
13.3
0.1
82.1
39.0
43.1
15.1
4.7
8.6

616.0 2,910.9 6,255.3
12.4
57.9
124.4
46.7
224.6
481.4
64.7
305.6
659.7
72.5
333.5
709.0
812.4 3,832.6 8,229.7

Non-Security Agencies:
Agriculture 4 ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Commerce ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Census Bureau ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Education 5 �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy (excluding National Nuclear Security Administration) ������������������
Health and Human Services (HHS) 6 ������������������������������������������������������������
Housing and Urban Development ����������������������������������������������������������������
Interior �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Justice ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Labor ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
State and Other International Programs 4 ���������������������������������������������������
Transportation �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Budget Authority (BA) ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Obligation Limitations �������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Treasury ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Corps of Engineers ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Environmental Protection Agency ����������������������������������������������������������������

26.0
8.8
1.5
52.7
18.3
85.5
45.3
12.4
29.9
13.5
0.1
84.7
41.2
43.6
15.9
4.8
8.5

124.2
44.2
6.4
254.1
87.7
415.2
214.3
60.3
139.5
67.4
0.6
404.2
206.6
197.6
73.6
23.6
45.4

266.1
101.1
29.1
537.5
186.6
881.2
464.1
126.6
291.8
138.5
1.3
824.5
418.1
406.4
159.0
49.3
89.0

49

50

Table S–11. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED (“DISCRETIONARY”)
PROGRAMS BY AGENCY—Continued
(Budgetary resources in billions of dollars)
2009 Actual

Totals

2011
Non- ARRA 1 2010
Enacted Request 2012
ARRA
General Services Administration ������������������������������������������������������������������
National Aeronautics and Space Administration ����������������������������������������
National Science Foundation ������������������������������������������������������������������������
Small Business Administration ��������������������������������������������������������������������
Social Security Administration 6 �������������������������������������������������������������������
Corporation for National and Community Service ��������������������������������������
Other Agencies �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

20112015

20112020

0.6
17.8
6.5
0.6
8.5
0.9
18.6
354.0
407.8

5.9
1.0
3.0
0.7
1.1
0.2
0.3
253.1
253.1

0.6
18.7
6.9
0.8
9.3
1.2
19.5
391.4
445.7

0.7
18.9
7.4
1.0
10.1
1.4
20.2
386.6
441.4

0.6
19.4
7.8
1.0
10.5
1.7
19.2
437.1
446.4

0.6
20.0
8.3
0.9
10.9
2.0
18.6
399.4
446.2

0.6
20.6
8.9
0.9
11.4
2.3
19.1
416.0
459.2

0.7
3.2
6.8
21.0
99.9
212.6
9.5
41.9
96.9
1.0
4.8
9.9
11.7
54.7
117.6
2.6
10.0
26.9
19.5
96.7
202.0
428.7 2,067.9 4,382.9
472.3 2,265.5 4,789.3

Overseas Contingency Operations 7 ��������������������������������������������������������������
Defense �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Homeland Security ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Justice ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

146.0
145.7
0.3
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........

130.0
129.6
0.2
0.1

159.3
159.1
0.3
.........

50.0
50.0
.........
.........

50.0
50.0
.........
.........

50.0
50.0
.........
.........

50.0
50.0
.........
.........

359.3
359.1
0.3
.........

609.3
609.1
0.3
.........

Other Enacted Supplemental or Emergency Funding �����������������������������
Agriculture �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy (excluding National Nuclear Security Administration) ������������������
Health and Human Services �������������������������������������������������������������������������
State and Other International Programs �����������������������������������������������������
Department of Transportation �����������������������������������������������������������������������
Corps of Engineers-Civil Works ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Other Agencies �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

44.1
1.4
7.9
10.5
13.8
3.0
6.6
0.9

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

0.5
0.4
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
0.1

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

Proposed 2010 Supplemental Funding 8 �������������������������������������������������������
Defense (includes Overseas Contingency Operations) ����������������������������������
Homeland Security ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

46.2
33.6
5.5

–*
.........
.........

–*
.........
.........

*
.........
.........

*
.........
.........

*
.........
.........

–*
.........
.........

–*
.........
.........

Subtotal, Non-Security Discretionary Budget Authority ������������������������
Subtotal, Non-Security Discretionary Budgetary Resources �����������������
Other Discretionary Funding (not included above):

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Budgetary resources in billions of dollars)
2009 Actual

Totals

2011
Non- ARRA 1 2010
Enacted Request 2012
ARRA
State and Other International Programs �����������������������������������������������������
Other Agencies �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

.........
.........

.........
.........

6.2
0.9

.........
–*

.........
–*

2013
.........
*

2014
.........
*

2015
.........
*

20112015
.........
–*

20112020

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED (“DISCRETIONARY”)
PROGRAMS BY AGENCY—Continued

.........
–*

Grand Total, Discretionary Budget Authority ����������������������������������������������� 1,194.2

265.1 1,251.8 1,265.1 1,233.0 1,216.5 1,254.1 1,291.1 6,259.8 13,221.9

Grand Total, Discretionary Budgetary Resources ���������������������������������������� 1,247.9

265.1 1,306.1 1,319.9 1,242.3 1,263.3 1,297.2 1,334.7 6,457.4 13,628.3

* $50 million or less.
“ARRA” refers to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5).
2
The DHS level includes $1.8 billion for BioShield in 2009 and a -$3.0 billion transfer in 2010 of BioShield balances to HHS.
3
The Veterans Affairs total is net of medical care collections.
4
The Security category for State and Other International Programs consists entirely of International Function 150. This includes funding for International Food Aid
programs in the Department of Agriculture.
5
Adjusted for advance appropriations, 2009 funding for the Department of Education is $46.2 billion. All numbers exclude funding for Pell Grants.
6
Funding from the Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance trust funds for administrative expenses incurred by the Social Security Administration
that support the Medicare program is included in the HHS total and not in the Social Security Administration total. Additionally, the HHS total includes $0.4 billion
and $3.0 billion in 2009 and 2010, respectively, for transfer of the BioShield program in DHS.
7
The Budget includes placeholder estimates of $50 billion per year for Overseas Contingency Operations in 2012 and beyond. These estimates do not reflect any
specific policy decisions.
8
At the time the 2011 Mid-Session Report was prepared, a 2010 Supplemental had not been enacted. Therefore, the Administration’s 2010 Requested Supplemental from
the 2011 Budget, as amended, is included in the estimates. This estimate is updated to include budget amendments and other new requests for FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund,
the earthquake response in Haiti, the Port of Guam, the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, the Title 17 Loan Guarantee Program, security enhancements for the Southwest
Border, and Mine Safety. Although transmitted as a discretionary budget amendment, the requested supplemental does not include funding for 2010 to implement the settlement of a case involving the management of individual Indian trust accounts related to Indian lands (Cobell) or funding to settle claims of prior discrimination brought by
black farmers against the Department of Agriculture (Pigford). It is assumed that this funding will be enacted in a mandatory authorization bill. The 2011 to 2020 levels for
the supplemental (all estimated to be under $50 million per year) are for spending and reimbursement for oil spill employment assistance, oil spill unemployment assistance,
oil spill supplemental nutrition assistance, and oil spill Section 32 response and reflect a probabilistic score that captures any potential Oil Spill of National Significance.
1

51

52

Table S–12. OUTLAYS FOR MANDATORY PROGRAMS UNDER CURRENT LAW 1, 2
(In billions of dollars)
2009
Actual

Estimate
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Human resources programs:
Education, training, employment and social services ��������������������������������������������������������������������������
Health �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicare �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Income security ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Social Security ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Veterans’ benefits and services �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, human resources programs ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

–3
278
425
470
678
49
1,896

–6
306
450
555
702
62
2,069

9
305
475
477
729
78
2,074

15
303
463
428
761
66
2,036

9
324
501
434
802
76
2,145

11
452
530
431
847
82
2,354

12
507
556
429
896
87
2,486

Other mandatory programs:
National defense ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
International affairs ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Agriculture ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Commerce and housing credit ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Transportation ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Community and regional development �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Justice �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
General government ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Undistributed offsetting receipts ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other functions ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, other mandatory programs ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

4
–6
–1
16
284
2
3
2
4
–93
1
216

5
–3
4
18
–56
3
1
2
4
–80
1
–100

5
–2
3
17
29
3
1
5
5
–89
3
–19

5
–2
2
9
11
2
1
4
6
–89
3
–48

5
–2
–1
17
–14
2
*
3
5
–93
3
–74

5
–2
–2
14
–22
2
*
2
5
–95
3
–88

5
–2
–3
13
–30
2
*
2
5
–99
3
–102

Total, outlays for mandatory programs under current law ������������������������������������������������������

2,112

1,969

2,055

1,988

2,071

2,265

2,384
MID-SESSION REVIEW

*$500 million or less.
This table meets the requirements of Section 221(b) of the Legislative Reorganization Act of 1970.
2
Estimates are based on the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) baseline. The BEA baseline differs in some instances from current law (see the chapter on “Current
Services Estimates” in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the 2011 Budget) and also from the baseline projection of current policy (see Table S–7).
1

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2008
Transactions between Treasury and
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac:
Senior Preferred Liquidity Payments to Fannie
Mae/Freddie Mac������������������������������������������������
Senior Preferred Dividend Payments from Fannie
Mae/Freddie Mac �����������������������������������������������
Net Payments ��������������������������������������������������

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011- 20112015 2020

.........

96

69

23

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

23

23

.........
.........

–4
91

–12
57

–18
5

–7
–7

–7
–7

–7
–7

–7
–7

–7
–7

–7
–7

–7
–7

–7
–7

–7
–7

–44
–21

–78
–55

–18
–3

–18
–3

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–13. MARKET VALUATION AND BALANCE SHEET OF FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC

Market Valuation of Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac:
Market Value of Net Liability �������������������������������
Value of Private Equity Shares �����������������������������
Net Position of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:
Assets:
U.S. Treasury Securities ���������������������������������
Other Financial Assets �����������������������������������
Cash �����������������������������������������������������������������
Other ���������������������������������������������������������������

.........
12
1,524 1,579
115
110
63
54

Liabilities:
Debt Outstanding �������������������������������������������
Other Financial Liabilities �����������������������������

1,615
90

1,607
155

.........
–4
–4

96
–101
–5

Equity:
Treasury Senior Preferred Stock ������������������
Private Equity �����������������������������������������������
Net Position ������������������������������������������������

53

54

Table S–14. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT
(In billions of dollars)
Actual
2009
Financing:
Unified budget deficit ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������

Estimate
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1,413

1,471

1,416

911

736

698

762

758

721

749

822

900

–96

–5

–200

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Direct loan accounts ������������������������������������������������������������������

293

200

142

131

114

107

110

96

99

90

103

114

Guaranteed loan accounts ���������������������������������������������������������

7

–7

8

11

10

6

4

3

1

-2

-4

-6

Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) equity purchase
accounts ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������

105

–3

–15

*

–2

–5

–4

–5

-9

-11

-25

-16

–3
22

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

-1
.........

-1
.........

-1
.........

-1
.........

329
–*
329

184
–*
183

–66
–*
–66

141
–*
141

122
–*
121

108
–*
108

109
–*
108

93
–1
92

90
-1
89

76
-1
75

73
-1
72

91
-1
90

1,742

1,655

1,350

1,052

857

805

870

850

810

824

895

991

1,742
148
4
1,893

1,655
248
–2
1,901

1,350
137
–1
1,486

1,052
201
1
1,255

857
261
1
1,120

805
306
1
1,111

870
350
1
1,221

850
375
1
1,226

810
395
1
1,206

824
377
1
1,202

895
370
1
1,265

991
364
–*
1,355

Other transactions affecting borrowing from the public:
Changes in financial assets and liabilities: 1
Change in Treasury operating cash balance 2 ���������������������������������
Net disbursements of credit financing accounts:

Net purchases of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad
Retirement Investment Trust (NRRIT) ��������������������������������������
Net change in other financial assets and liabilities 3 ����������������������
Subtotal, changes in financial assets and liabilities ����������������
Seigniorage on coins ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Total, other transactions affecting borrowing from the public ������
Total, requirement to borrow from the public (equals change
in debt held by the public) ����������������������������������������������������
Changes in Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation:
Change in debt held by the public �������������������������������������������������������������
Change in debt held by Government accounts ������������������������������������������
Change in other factors ������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Total, change in debt subject to statutory limitation �������������������������

Debt Outstanding, End of Year:
Gross Federal debt: 6
Debt issued by Treasury ���������������������������������������������������������������������� 11,850 13,752 15,238 16,491 17,610 18,720 19,940 21,165 22,371 23,572 24,837 26,192

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year:
Debt issued by Treasury ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 11,850 13,752 15,238 16,491 17,610 18,720 19,940 21,165 22,371 23,572 24,837 26,192
Adjustment for discount, premium, and coverage 4 �����������������������������������
3
2
2
4
5
6
7
8
8
9
9
9
Total, debt subject to statutory limitation 5 ���������������������������������������� 11,853 13,754 15,240 16,495 17,614 18,726 19,947 21,173 22,379 23,581 24,846 26,200

(In billions of dollars)
Actual
2009

Estimate
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Debt issued by other agencies �������������������������������������������������������������
26
27
27
27
27
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
Total, gross Federal debt ������������������������������������������������������������������ 11,876 13,779 15,265 16,518 17,637 18,748 19,968 21,192 22,398 23,598 24,863 26,218
Held by:
Debt held by Government accounts ����������������������������������������������������
Debt held by the public 7 ����������������������������������������������������������������������

4,331
7,545

4,579 4,716 4,917 5,178 5,483 5,833 6,208 6,603 6,979 7,349 7,713
9,199 10,550 11,602 12,459 13,264 14,134 14,984 15,795 16,619 17,514 18,505

Debt Held by the Public Net of Financial Assets:
Debt held by the public �������������������������������������������������������������������������������

7,545

9,199 10,550 11,602 12,459 13,264 14,134 14,984 15,795 16,619 17,514 18,505

Less financial assets net of liabilities:
Treasury operating cash balance 2 ������������������������������������������������������

275

270

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

Credit financing account balances:
Direct loan accounts �������������������������������������������������������������������������
Guaranteed loan accounts ���������������������������������������������������������������
TARP equity purchase accounts ������������������������������������������������������
Government-sponsored enterprise preferred stock ���������������������������
Non-Federal securities held by NRRIT ����������������������������������������������
Other assets net of liabilities ��������������������������������������������������������������
Total, financial assets net of liabilities ��������������������������������������������

489
–35
105
65
22
–22
899

689
–42
102
102
21
–22
1,121

831
–34
87
115
20
–22
1,067

962
–23
88
115
19
–22
1,208

1,076
–13
86
115
18
–22
1,330

1,183
–7
82
115
17
–22
1,438

1,293
–2
77
115
16
–22
1,547

1,389
1
73
115
15
–22
1,639

1,488
2
64
115
13
-22
1,730

1,578
–*
53
115
12
-22
1,805

1,681
-4
28
115
11
-22
1,878

1,795
-10
12
115
10
-22
1,969

6,646

8,079

9,482 10,393 11,129 11,826 12,588 13,345 14,065 14,814 15,636 16,535

Debt held by the public net of financial assets ������������������������

55

* $500 million or less.
1
A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) is a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a negative sign; that is, the reduction in cash
balances reduces the amount that would otherwise be borrowed from the public. An increase in checks outstanding (which is a liability) is also a means of financing a
deficit and therefore also has a negative sign.
2
Includes assumed Supplementary Financing Program balance of $200 billion on September 30, 2010, and zero on September 30, 2011, and beyond.
3
Includes checks outstanding, accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, uninvested deposit fund balances, allocations of special drawing rights, and other liability
accounts; and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets (other than the Treasury operating cash balance), other asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.
4
Consists mainly of debt issued by the Federal Financing Bank (which is not subject to limit), debt held by the Federal Financing Bank, the unamortized discount (less
premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds), and the unrealized discount on Government account series securities.
5
The statutory debt limit is $14,294 billion, as enacted on February 12, 2010.
6
Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost all measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less
amortized premium. Agency debt securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are otherwise measured at
face value less unrealized discount (if any).
7
At the end of 2009, the Federal Reserve Banks held $769.2 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held $6,775.5 billion. Debt held by the Federal
Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–14. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT—Continued

)

Executive Office of the President
Office of Management and Budget
Wa s h i n g t o n , D. C . 2 0 5 0 3