The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
TOLEDO, OHIO MSA | DECEMBER 2015 Toledo – Vehicle Sales Driving Up Employment After strong sales in the second half of 2014, the nation’s year-to-date light vehicle sales have grown 5 percent in 2015. This sustained growth in auto sales has translated into more jobs in the Toledo metro area. In fact, the region’s manufacturing jobs also grew 5 percent in the 12 months leading up to March 2015. Other indicators have also shown improvement: home prices are growing, the unemployment rate is below the nation’s, and per capita output and income are above pre-recession levels. That said, employment remains 4 percent below pre-recession levels. METRO AREA SNAPSHOT Unemployment Rate August 2015 Home Prices One-year change August 2015 One-year change Credit Card Delinquency Rates March 2015 One-year change 2015:Q2 One-year change (thousands) Toledo 4.4% –1.5 $100,300 2.5% 287 1.3% 7.4% –1.0 Ohio 4.6% –0.8 $117,300 2.8% 5,229 1.4% 7.0% –0.7 United States 4.5% –1.4 $132,400 3.7% 1,148 1.6% 6.8% –0.8 Nearby metro average 5.1% –1.0 $180,800 3.3% 138,494 2.1% 7.6% –0.9 Toledo’s unemployment rate is below Ohio’s for the first time in more than a decade Percent 14 12 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 10 8 6 ■ Recession 4 2 0 Payroll Employment 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE The Toledo metro area’s unemployment rate continues to fall and stood at 4.4 percent in August 2015. After having been higher than Ohio’s unemployment rate for more than ten years—often by more than a percentage point—the metro area’s unemployment rate is now slightly below the state’s. This is the product of the auto sector’s recent robust growth, both nationally and in the metro area, and reductions in the size of the metro area’s labor force. The state of Ohio, the Toledo metro area, and nearby metro areas now have lower unemployment rates than the nation. 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics. Per capita output has recovered faster in the metro area than in the nation or state GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Index, 2007=100 110 108 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 106 104 102 100 98 ■ Recession 96 94 92 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics. 2014 Toledo’s 2013 GDP per capita was 4 percent above pre-recession levels. This means that the metro area’s GDP per capita has recovered more quickly than in the state, nation, or the average of metro areas within 200 miles. Strong growth in manufacturing and professional services output since 2011 has helped this recovery. The metro area’s population decline has mixed effects: GDP is divided across fewer people, but industries that serve local residents, such as retail trade, have also experienced declines in output. TOLEDO, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA DECEMBER 2015 EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS Recently, employment grew faster in the Toledo metro area than in the nation or state EMPLOYMENT Index, 2007: M12=100 In the six months leading up to March 2015, Toledo’s seasonallyadjusted employment grew 1.4 percent—one-half of a percentage point (or more) faster than the United States and Ohio. This was primarily due to the strong growth in the auto sector in the second half of 2014 and into 2015. However, even with the recent increase in job growth, the Toledo metro area has 4 percent fewer jobs than it did in December 2007, when the most recent recession began. Over the same period, the nation and nearby metro areas exceeded their pre-recession employment levels by about 2 percent and the state was only 1 percent below its pre-recession employment level. 105 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 100 95 ■ Recession 90 85 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Construction and manufacturing growth rates were strong in Toledo EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR Between March 2014 and March 2015, the Toledo metro area added 3,847 jobs, a 1.4 percent increase. Construction grew 13 percent, which was faster than any other sector in the metro area and more than double the national growth rate. The manufacturing sector was the second fastest-growing sector, growing 5 percent. This is more than triple the rate of growth of manufacturing in the United States and double Ohio’s rate. The education and health services sector grew the slowest in this 12-month period, with a 3 percent decline in employment. This is in contrast to the sector’s continued growth at the national and state levels. Construction Manufacturing Trade, transportation, and utilities — Toledo — Ohio — United States Professional and business services Financial activities Leisure and hospitality Government Education and health services –5 0 5 Percentage change 10 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Since March 2014, all but one of Toledo’s major sectors grew Percent 15 RELATIVE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH In the 12 months leading up to March 2015, construction grew at a faster rate than manufacturing in the Toledo metro area. However, manufacturing added 1,910 jobs while construction added 1,264. The other sector that added more than 1,000 jobs was trade, transportation, and utilities (1,158). The sector that lost the greatest number of jobs was education and health services, with a loss of 1,588 jobs. Increasing employment growth Construction 10 5 Financial activities 0 –5 Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Trade, transportation, and utilities Government Education and health services 0 5 10 Percent 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND Larger share of metro’s overall employment 20 TOLEDO, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA DECEMBER 2015 INCOME Toledo’s income per capita continued to rise Thousands of dollars 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 2005 2007 I NCOME PER CAPITA — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average ■ Recession 2009 2011 For the fourth consecutive year, Toledo’s income per capita rose in 2013 and was $367 above its pre-recession level. This is a larger gain on pre-recession levels than seen in nearby metro areas ($117), but about half as large as in the state of Ohio ($728). In the nation as whole, per capita income is $308 below its pre-recession level. Toledo’s gains in income per capita appear to be due to the recovery of jobs and the out-migration of retired people, who tend to have lower incomes. 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics. CONSUMER FINANCES Toledo’s average consumer debt was lower than in the nation, state, and nearby metro areas C ONSUMER DEBT Thousands of dollars 50 35 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 30 ■ Recession 45 40 25 20 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 At $23,251 per adult with a credit report in the second quarter of 2015, the Toledo metro area’s average balance of mortgage, auto, and credit card debt continues to sit below that of Ohio, nearby metro areas, and especially the United States. This is largely due the metro area having relatively low home prices, which keep mortgage balances low. The metro area’s decline in typical debt balance since the recovery began (25 percent) is a littler larger than that of the nation (23 percent) and Ohio (22 percent). 2015 Source: Authors’ calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. Toledo’s credit card delinquency rate was slightly lower than the nation’s C REDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATES Percent of credit card balances delinquent 14 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 12 10 8 6 ■ Recession 4 2 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 The metro area’s credit card delinquency rate fell 0.1 percentage point in the second quarter of 2015, the seventh consecutive quarter this measure of financial distress has declined. After falling for more than a year, credit card delinquency rates ticked up in the United States, Ohio, and nearby metros in the second quarter of 2015. At 7.4 percent, Toledo’s latest credit card delinquency rate is 0.2 percentage points below the nation’s and 0.4 percentage points above the state’s. 2015 Source: Authors’ calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND TOLEDO, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA DECEMBER 2015 HOUSING MARKET Toledo’s home prices rose 2.5 percent over the last 12 months HOUSING PRICES Year-over-year percent change 15 The median home value in the Toledo metro area was $100,300 in August 2015. Since the beginning of 2014, the metro area’s house prices have been rising at about the same rate as in the United States, Ohio, and nearby metro areas. Home-price appreciation slowed in all four areas in 2014, but the slowdown was greatest in Toledo. Toledo’s year-over-year change in home prices in August was 2.5 percent, rebounding from 0.4 percent in January. — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 10 5 0 ■ Recession -5 -10 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Zillow.com/Haver Analytics. In the Toledo metro area, building permits rose 9 percent from May to September H OUSING PERMITS Index, 2007: M12=100, six-month moving average 350 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 Though quite volatile, it appears that single-family building permits have begun to recover from their decline in the first half of 2015 in Ohio and Toledo. In all four areas, permits remain well below their peak during the housing boom of 2005 and 2006. — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro Cincinnati average Average of nearby metros ■ Recession United States 300 Ohio 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics. DEMOGRAPHICS AND EDUCATION Toledo Metro Area 2014 Population United States Change from 2009 2014 Change from 2009 607,456 –0.5% 318,857,000 +3.9% Adults with less than a high school diploma 9.8% –2.7% 13.1% –1.7% Adults with an undergraduate degree or higher 27.4% +5.3% 30.1% +2.2% 37.5 +0.1 years 37.7 +0.9 years $45,907 –4.6% $54,015 –3.2% Median age (years) Median household income TOLEDO, OHIO According to 2014 US Census Bureau estimates, Toledo is the 91st largest of the 381 statistical areas in the United States, down from 89th largest in 2013. The share of adults over 25 with an undergraduate degree is higher in the nation than the metro area, but from 2009 to 2014 it increased faster in the metro area. Sources: Census Population estimates; American Community Survey. All monthly and quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted and all dollar figures are in current dollars, except home prices (which are left nominal). Where applicable, these adjustments are made prior to calculating percent changes or indexes. Several charts use indexed measures to facilitate comparisons across regions and have a reference line at 100. These numbers can be thought of as the percentages of pre-recession levels. If levels were growing before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be below 100; if levels were falling before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be above 100. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, including its branch offices in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves the Fourth Federal Reserve District (Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky). www. clevelandfed.org FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND
@FedFRASER