The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
A Day in the Life of the FOMC An Inside Look at the Federal Reser ve’s Monetar y Policymaking Body A Day in the Life of the FOMC 1 A Day in the Life of the FOMC An inside look at the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking body A s long as the U.S. economy is growing level of interest rates that businesses and consumers steadily and inflation is low, few people give pay. Those changes in money supply and interest much thought to the Federal Open Market rates, in turn, influence the nation’s economic growth Committee, or FOMC, the group within the Federal and employment in the short run and the general Reserve System charged with setting monetary policy. level of prices in the long run. Yet, when economic volatility makes the evening news, this Committee and its activities become much As a result, many people have good reason to wonder more prominent. Investors and workers, shoppers about who makes these decisions about monetary and savers all pay more attention to the FOMC’s policy and how they make them. In these pages, we decisions and the wording of its announcements at will eliminate some of the mystery surrounding what the end of each meeting. goes on at the FOMC meetings in Washington, D.C. Why? Because the decisions made by the FOMC have The Mechanics of a Meeting a ripple effect throughout the economy. The FOMC is a key part of the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the central bank of the United States. Among the Fed’s duties are managing the growth of the money supply, providing liquidity in times of crisis, and ensuring the integrity of the financial system. The FOMC’s decisions to change the growth of the nation’s money supply affect the availability of credit and the 2 A Day in the Life of the FOMC Let’s take a closer look at how our nation’s monetary policymakers go about their task in a typical FOMC meeting. Or, put simply, let’s spend a day in the life of the FOMC. The FOMC meets regularly — typically every six to eight weeks — in Washington, D.C., although the Committee can and does meet more often by A Day in the Life of the FOMC 3 phone or videoconference if needed. The meetings only one staff member, usually his or her director of are generally one-day or two-day events, with the research. two-day meetings providing more time to discuss a special topic. A typical one-day meeting begins The objective at each meeting is to set the on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. and ends between 1:00 Committee’s target for the federal funds rate — and 2:00 p.m. Two-day meetings usually begin on the interest rate at which banks lend to each other the afternoon of the first day, typically a Tuesday overnight — at a level that will support the two key afternoon, and end between noon and 2:00 p.m. on objectives of U.S. monetary policy: price stability the second day. and maximum sustainable economic growth. The meeting’s agenda follows a structured and logical Around the table in the Federal Reserve Board’s process that results in well-informed and thoroughly headquarters sit all 19 FOMC participants (seven deliberated decisions on the future course of Governors and 12 Reserve Bank presidents) as monetary policy. well as select staff and economists from the Board and the Reserve Banks. Because of the nature of The meeting begins with a report from the manager the discussions, attendance is restricted. A Reserve of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at Bank president, for instance, typically brings along the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who is Some Facts About the Fed The Federal Reserve System — commonly called “the Fed” — serves as the central bank of the United States. Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act in 1913, which President Woodrow Wilson supported and signed into law on December 23, 1913. Congress structured the Fed as a distinctly American version of a central bank: a “decentralized” central bank, with Reserve Banks and Branches in 12 Districts spread across the country and coordinated by a Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Congress also gave the Fed System a mixture of public and private characteristics. The 12 Reserve Banks share many features with private-sector corporations, including boards of directors and stockholders (the member banks within their Districts). The Board of Governors, though, is an independent government agency, with oversight responsibilities for the Reserve Banks. The Fed conducts monetary policy, supervises and regulates banking, serves as lender of last resort, maintains an effective and efficient payments system, and serves as banker for banks and the U.S. government. Conducting the nation’s monetary policy is one of the most important — and often the most visible — functions of the Fed. 4 President Wilson the Federal Reserve Act, 1913 A Day in the Lifesigning of the FOMC Above: Modern-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Eccles Building, Washington, D.C. responsible for keeping the federal funds rate close Then the meeting to the target level set by the FOMC. The manager progresses to the first explains how well the Open Market Trading Desk of two “go-rounds,” has done in hitting the target level since the last which are the core FOMC meeting and discusses recent developments of FOMC meetings. in the financial and foreign exchange markets. During the first goround, all of the Fed Up next is the Federal Reserve Board’s director of Governors and Reserve the Division of Research and Statistics, along with Bank presidents the director of the Division of International Finance. discuss how they see economic and financial They review the Board staff’s outlook for the U.S. conditions. The Reserve Bank presidents speak economy and foreign economies. This detailed about conditions in their Districts, as well as offering forecast is circulated the week before the meeting to their views on national economic conditions. FOMC members in what is called the “Greenbook” — named for its green cover in the days when it was The data and information discussed vary by region a printed document. and therefore spotlight a wide range of industries. A Day in the Life of the FOMC 5 So Who Votes? For example, one would expect the review of economic conditions by their Research Department regional conditions in the San Francisco District to staffs in the days leading up to the FOMC meeting. lend insight into the tech sector of Silicon Valley. The The briefings cover regional, national, and Chicago District covers a region heavily dependent international business and financial conditions. on manufacturing and automobiles. Philadelphia’s District has become much more diverse and This first go-round covers valuable information about representative of the national economy, so it tends to economic activity throughout the country, measured reflect what is happening across a variety of sectors. in hard data and recent anecdotal information, as well as the analysis and interpretation conveyed by the The policymakers have prepared for this go-round policymakers sitting around the table. This is a key through weeks of information gathering. Before way in which each region of the U.S. has input into the FOMC meeting, each Reserve Bank prepares a the making of national monetary policy. This portion “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic of the meeting concludes with the FOMC Chairman Conditions,” which is published two weeks before summarizing the discussion and providing the each meeting in what most people call the “Beige Chairman’s own view of the economy. Book,” for the color of its cover when originally printed. One Federal Reserve Bank, designated on At this point, the policy discussion begins with the a rotating basis, publishes the overall summary of Federal Reserve Board’s director of the Division of the 12 District reports. The Reserve Bank presidents Monetary Affairs, who outlines the Committee’s have also gathered information by talking with various policy options. The policymakers receive executives in a variety of business sectors and these options usually by the Friday before the through meetings with the Banks’ boards of meeting in the “Bluebook,” again named for its directors and advisory councils. In addition, cover’s color when originally printed. In the early days of the FOMC, controversy swirled around how to structure the vote. Should monetary policy be set by the 12 Reserve Banks or the Board of Governors? Or both? In 1935 Congress decided that the seven Governors would vote along with only five of the 12 presidents. The president of the New York Fed always votes — since the Open Market Trading Desk operates in that District — along with four presidents who rotate from among the groups shown below. In that way, voting members always come from different parts of the country. Always Votes Chairman of the Board (Chair of FOMC) + Six Governors President of the NY Fed (Vice Chair of FOMC) Rotating Vote (1 president from each group) Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Boston Chicago Atlanta Kansas City Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Dallas Minneapolis St. Louis San Francisco One-year voting terms begin with the first scheduled meeting in January, at which time the Committee formally elects its officers. Traditionally, the Chairman of the Board of Governors chairs the FOMC, and the New York Fed president serves as vice chairman. Despite the voting design, all 19 policymakers participate equally in the analysis and deliberations. Giving each president a seat at the FOMC table ensures that a “decentralized” central bank sets monetary policy that reflects regional as well as national economic conditions. all Committee participants receive briefings on The outlook options could include no change, an a voting member or not — play an instrumental role increase, or a decrease in the federal funds rate target. in the FOMC’s policy decisions. Each option is described, along with a clear rationale, A Bit of Background: Monetary Policy So, what is monetary policy? Simply put, it refers to the actions taken by the Fed to influence the supply of money and credit in order to foster price stability and maintain maximum sustainable economic growth, which are the key objectives established by Congress for monetary policymakers in the U.S. The Federal Reserve issues the nation’s currency (Federal Reserve notes) and manages the amount of funds the banking system holds as reserves. Currency and reserves make up what is called the monetary base. The Fed’s instrument for implementing monetary policy is the FOMC’s target for the federal funds rate 6 A Day in the Life of the FOMC — the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. By buying and selling U.S. government securities in the open market, the Fed influences the interest rate that banks charge each other. Movements in this rate and expectations about those changes influence all other interest rates and asset prices in the economy. the pros and cons, and some alternatives for how At the end of this policy go-round, the Chairman the Committee could explain its decision in a public summarizes a proposal for action based on the statement to be released that afternoon. Committee’s discussion, as well as a proposed statement to explain the policy decision. The Fed Then, there is a second go-round. The Reserve Bank Governors and presidents then get a chance to presidents and Governors each make the best case question or comment on the Chairman’s proposed for the policy alternative they prefer, given current approach. Once a motion for a decision is on the table, economic conditions and their personal outlook for the Committee tries to come to a consensus through the economy. They also comment on how they think its deliberations. Although the final decision is most the statement explaining the decision should be often one that all can support, there are times when worded. some differences of opinion may remain, and voting members may dissent. One of the most important aspects of an FOMC meeting is that all voices matter. The analysis and The process brings a valuable diversity of views to viewpoints of each committee participant — whether monetary policy decisions. The Committee’s ability to A Day in the Life of the FOMC 7 make thoughtful and sound policy choices is strengthened by the interaction of policymakers with different perspectives and varied experiences. As American writer and journalist Walter Lippmann once said, “Where all men think alike, no one thinks very much.” The give and take at FOMC meetings reflects the remarkably deliberative and thoughtful nature of policymaking and makes the process more constructive. At the end of the policy discussion, all seven of the Fed Governors and the five voting Reserve Bank presidents cast a formal vote on the proposed decision and the wording of the statement. FOMC Statements: Communicating Policy Actions After the vote has been taken, the FOMC publicly announces its policy decision at 2:15 p.m. The announcement includes the federal funds rate target, the statement explaining its actions, and the vote tally, including the names of the voters and the preferred action of those who dissented. In addition, the FOMC releases its official minutes three weeks after each meeting. Timeline to Transparency with meeting minutes reflecting an ever-changing mix of possible factors influencing the Committee’s decisions about its fed funds rate target, ranging from indicators of economic growth to commodity prices to exchange rates. Much has been said about the benefits of predictable policy and its role in shaping the public’s expectations. However, just two decades ago, the central bank’s decisions were at times hard to discern. The Fed said relatively little about its monetary policy and allowed actions to speak for themselves. Despite the lack of transparency, the financial press reported extensively before each regularly scheduled FOMC meeting on the likely decision of policymakers The minutes include a more complete explanation of the views expressed, which allows the public to get a better sense of the range of views within the FOMC and However, markets — even those that are efficient — do not like to be kept guessing. Fed-watchers complained that FOMC decisions were made in an atmosphere of mystery, promotes awareness and understanding of how monetary policy is made. In recent years, the FOMC has improved communications with the public. Today, more than ever before, the Fed reports more frequently and more thoroughly on the economy. 8 A Day in the Life of the FOMC 76 77 78 80 81 82 1975 1979 The Federal Reserve presents testimony twice each year to Congress on the conduct of monetary policy. The FOMC releases the first semiannual economic projections. 84 85 86 1983 The Federal Reserve publishes the first “Beige Book,” which summarizes economic conditions in each Federal Reserve District. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 95 96 97 1994 2000 The FOMC begins to release a statement disclosing changes in the federal funds rate target. The FOMC begins releasing a statement after every meeting and starts to include an assessment of the balance of risks to achieving its objectives. 98 and the supposed reasoning behind the decision. However, without clear communications, policy decisions became a source of speculation. In recent years, the FOMC has sought to improve transparency about its policymaking. Today, the central bank is quite explicit in setting out the objectives of policy and its views on the outlook for the economy. Here are some significant milestones: 99 01 2002 The results of the FOMC roll-call vote are added to the post-meeting statement. 03 05 06 2004 The FOMC speeds up the release of its minutes: Now there is only a threeweek lag, instead of waiting until after the next regularly scheduled meeting, which meant a lag of about six weeks. 08 2007 The FOMC decides to release its economic projections four times a year. 9 What’s more, the FOMC now releases Committee Simply put, the Fed’s open market purchases of participants’ projections for the economy and government securities increase the amount of inflation four times a year, which provides added reserve funds that banks have available to lend, insight into the policymakers’ perspectives. which puts downward pressure on the federal Clearer guidance about the FOMC’s aims helps funds rate. Sales of government securities do just the the economy run more smoothly. Individuals and opposite: They shrink the reserve funds available to businesses are able to make their own economic lend and tend to raise the funds rate. decisions armed with a better understanding of what the central bank expects to happen in the economy. Open market operations affect the amount of money and credit available in the banking system, thereby This greater transparency also helps anchor the affecting interest rates, which in turn affect the public’s expectations about the economy and the spending decisions of households and businesses general level of inflation by explaining the actions and ultimately the overall performance of the U.S. the central bank is pursuing. economy. Transparency also increases the central bank’s In Closing accountability to the public. In a democratic society, it is important that institutions with the delegated authority to act in the public interest be as clear and as transparent as possible about their actions. Failing to do so risks losing confidence and credibility — two essential ingredients for sound central bank policymaking. When market participants understand how the Fed will react to incoming economic information, policy is more effective. Putting Policy in Action A Brief History of the FOMC Although Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913, the history of Federal Reserve open market operations begins in the 1920s when Reserve Banks started looking for a new revenue source to cover their operating costs. The Fed is fiscally independent in that it receives no government appropriations. At first, the Reserve Banks relied primarily on interest they earned on loans to banks — called discount window loans. But over time, they also began to purchase government securities in the open market with the intention of earning interest income to cover their expenses. President Roosevelt signs the Banking Act of 1933 Soon Fed officials recognized that these open market open market operations were becoming the main tool trades had a powerful and immediate impact on for carrying out monetary policy, overtaking another So that’s it — a day in the life of the FOMC. We short-term interest rates and the supply of money of the Fed’s monetary policy tools: changes in the hope you have gained some insights into monetary and credit. By the mid-1920s, the Federal Reserve discount rate. policymaking in our nation’s central bank. Now Banks of New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, that you know more about how monetary policy and Chicago had set up a committee to coordinate In the Banking Act of 1933, Congress established the decisions are made, you should be able to better their purchases and sales of securities. This group name and legal structure of the FOMC as a formal understand news reports about FOMC meetings and was called the Open Market Investment Committee. committee of all 12 Reserve Banks. Then in 1935, the Committee’s decisions. Congress determined that the FOMC should include The group was reorganized several times over the next the seven-member Board of Governors as well as the Since the FOMC’s beginnings, the U.S. economy few years, but this group involved only the Reserve 12 Reserve Bank presidents — bringing together both and financial system have grown increasingly Banks, not the Federal Reserve Board. Over time, centralized and decentralized elements of the central complex. In response, the FOMC has had to adapt bank. In the 1935 act, Congress also decided that only Once the FOMC establishes a target for the federal its policymaking so that it can continue to achieve five of the 12 Reserve Bank presidents would vote at funds rate, the Open Market Trading Desk at the its policy objectives of price stability and maximum any one time, along with the seven Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts daily sustainable economic growth. In the future, since open market operations — buying or selling U.S. we can expect our economy and financial system to Fed Governors are appointed by the President of government securities on the open market — as continue to change, it’s likely that the FOMC will the United States and confirmed by the Senate, necessary to achieve the federal funds rate target. continue to have to make adjustments as it seeks to while Reserve Bank boards of directors appoint achieve its monetary policy objectives. their presidents, subject to the Board of Governors’ approval. The FOMC therefore reflects a blend of national and regional representation as well as both Federal Reserve Board members, 1914 10 A Day in the Life of the FOMC public and private interests. A Day in the Life of the FOMC 11 www.philadelphiafed.org 12 A Day in the Life of the FOMC December 2008
@FedFRASER