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\ L.4.3 fl o.\ . .1 AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN MARCH I960 „ Resear* W Bank credit. Total credit at a l l commercial banks declined further in March as continued substantial reductions in holdings of U. S. Government securities more than o f f s e t moderate expansion in t o t a l loans. Loan growth of $1.1 b i l l i o n was about the same as in 1955 but l e s s than in other recent years of economic expansion. Growth in business loans, however, was substantial. Holdings of U. S. Government securities declined $2 b i l l i o n while holdings of other s e c u r i t i e s , which usually increase in March, were unchanged. So far t h i s year, t o t a l credit at a l l commercial banks has . / declined $6 b i l l i o n , almost twice as much as in any other recent year.—' Over $4-1/2 b i l l i o n of the decline was accounted for by unusually large reductions in holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s . Total loans declined $800 million; while business loans increased substantially, most other types of loans increased l e s s or declined more than usual. Holdings of other securities also declined over the f i r s t quarter of i960 whereas generally at t h i s time of year they increase. Both weekly reporting c i t y banks and nonreporting record reductions in t o t a l credit in the January-March i960 Total loans declined substantially at reporting c i t y banks, increases in the 1955-56 periods of economic expansion. At t o t a l loans rose more in early i960 than in the two e a r l i e r banks showed period. compared with other banks, years. Business loans at a l l commercial banks (excluding loans to finance companies and other financial businesses) increased $1 b i l l i o n in March, more than in any other year except 1956. The tax period rise at c i t y banks (the two weeks ending March 16) was somewhat larger than in the two past years, and the post-tax date reduction was r e l a t i v e l y moderate. Business loans had declined sharply in January, but t h i s followed record growth in December. In February, renewed expansion was substantial. The i960 f i r s t quarter r i s e of $600 million exceeded that in the f i r s t quarter of any other recent year except 1956, a year of record growth for these loans. Loans to manufacturers of metals and metal products continued t o increase rapidly in March; these loans accounted f o r over half of the t o t a l business loan r i s e at c i t y banks. Borrowing by trade concerns and t e x t i l e manufacturers, both of which are now increasing seasonally, rose more than in any other year. Borrowing by "other manufacturing" industries l7 See note at e n d o f Report. Not f o r publication i and construction firms has also been r e l a t i v e l y substantial t h i s year. Repayments by food processors were about seasonal in March while those by commodity dealers continued larger than seasonal following a larger r i s e than usual in the l a t t e r part of 1959 • Consumer loans at a l l commercial banks are estimated to have shown a s l i g h t l y more than seasonal r i s e in March, but growth so far t h i s year has been moderate. Real estate loans declined at c i t y banks during the f i r s t quarter of i960; growth at other banks appeared small but about the same as in most other recent years* Security loans at a l l commercial banks declined further in March whereas usually in t h i s month they increase. So far t h i s year, these loans have declined $1.6 b i l l i o n , twice as much as in any other recent year. In January and February i960 most of the decline was in loans secured by c o l l a t e r a l other than U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s but in March, the decline was about equally divided between loans secured by W. S. Government securities and those secured by other c o l l a t e r a l . Loan-deposit r a t i o s . A special table has been included in t h i s report showing annual data on loan-deposit ratios beginning in 1896 for a l l commercial banks in l $ l 4 for a l l member banks, and in 1919 for classes of member banks. During most of the period from 1896 t o the outbreak of World War I , the loan-deposit r a t i o of commercial banks was r e l a t i v e l y stable, fluctuating between 75 and 80 per cent, although i t was at the unusually high l e v e l of more than 90 per cent at the beginning of t h i s period. I t declined t o the 70 per cent l e v e l during World War I , where i t remained u n t i l a f t e r the 1929 crash, except for temporary jumps to 8 l per cent in the postwar i n f l a t i o n of 1920-21 and 75 per cent in the 1929 boom. From 1929 u n t i l l a t e in World War I I , the ratio declined sharply, r e f l e c t i n g reduced loan demand and rapid monetary expansion, f i r s t as a result of anti-depression measures and l a t e r as a result of inflationary methods of financing the War. At the end of World War I I , the ratio for a l l commercial bapks was 18 per cent, only s l i g h t l y above the war-time low. In the postwar period, the ratio has about tripled, r i s i n g somewhat l e s s at central reserve c i t y banks in New York and considerably more at country banks. The current l e v e l a t the end of March is the highest since 1932 but considerably below the l e v e l of the 1920's for a l l except New York central reserve c i t y banks. The ratio of capital t o loans at the present time is a l s o somewhat lower than in the 20's, being 18 per cent compared with a range of 22-26 per cent in the e a r l i e r period. Not for publication Deposits and currency. Seasonally adjusted demand deposit and currency holdings of businesses and individuals increased $400 million in torch following a decline of $1.1 b i l l i o n e a r l i e r in the year. 1 / At the end of March, the seasonally adjusted money supply was about""1/2 per cent below the l e v e l a year ago. Seasonally adjusted semi-monthly averages of daily demand deposits adjusted a t member banks are estimated to have declined $880 million, on the basis of revised seasonal factors, between the second half of February and the second half of March (preliminary). So far "this year, these deposits have declined $1.4 b i l l i o n , somewhat more than the $900 million decline in the l a s t Wednesday s e r i e s . Time deposits at a l l commercial banks increased $600 million in March, considerably more than in February. The increase was also larger than in March of other recent years of economic expansion. In January, usually a month showing l i t t l e change, the decline had been substantial. Growth in these deposits so far t h i s year has been only $100 million, considerably l e s s than in other recent years. Growth in deposits at mutual savings banks also has been l e s s t h i s year than in other years but the March growth, alone, was larger. Interbank time deposits at c i t y banks (not included in above data,)which represent largely holdings of foreign banks, increased in March. These deposits had declined each month since the spring of 1959. U. S. Government deposits increased l e s s than usual in March. These deposits were drawn down over the f i r s t half of the month and subsequently rebuilt through the depositing of tax payments. Deposit turnover. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of turnover of demand deposits at 337 centers outside Hew York and other financial centers declined somewhat to 25.8 in March following an exceptionally sharp r i s e in February» At the end of torch, the turnover rate was 7-1/2 per cent above the rate a year ago and 3-1/2 per cent above that of December 1959. . Bank reserves. Net borrowed reserves of member banks averaged $220 million in March compared with $360 million in February. Borrowings at $635 million were at the lowest l e v e l , on a monthly average basis, since the spring of 1959* Bet borrowed reserves were lower at reserve c i t y banks and central reserve c i t y banks in Hew York in March than they had been in February, but free reserves at country banks were about unchanged. Het borrowed reserves increased somewhat at central reserve c i t y banks in Chicago, but t h i s i s usual in connection with the April 1 I l l i n o i s personal property tax date. l / The special adjustment in the seasonal factor f o r demand deposits adjusted for torch 30, i960, (described in the February i960 Bulletin, page 135) has been changed from - 0 . 9 to -0.5 mainly t o r e f l e c t changed pattern of deposit movements immediately preceding April 1 I l l i n o i s personal property tax assessment date. The new factor for March 30, I960, i s 97.9 ' Hot for publication During March, on a daily average basis, reserves supplied through Treasury operations and miscellaneous market factors were about absorbed by currency outflow and a reduction in Reserve Bank f l o a t . Federal Beserve System holdings of U. S. Government securities were about unchanged as substantial purchases around the midmonth were o f f s e t by subsequent reductions. Required reserves declined $150 million. Note.—Data for assets and l i a b i l i t i e s for a l l commercial banks for recent months have been revised somewhat on the basis of the a l l bank c a l l data for December 31, 1959* The revised data are used in t h i s report. Loans and investments (adjusted t o exclude interbank loans) totaled $189.5 b i l l i o n on December 31, 1959 compared with the $188.8 b i l l i o n previously shown in the G.7 Report for December 30. Part of t h i s difference was due t o date variation. Part, however, was due t o larger growth in credit at nonmember banks than previously had been estimated. As a r e s u l t , the l e v e l s of t o t a l loans and investments at a l l commercial banks were revised upward in a range of $100 to $300 million over the October 1959-February i960 period. Levels of U. S. Government security holdings and other s e c u r i t i e s a l s o were revised upward; loans were unaffected. The l e v e l of demand deposits adjusted and currency outside banks was raised by $200 million for December 30, 1959, and by $400 million f o r January and February i960. Therefore, the decline In the seasonally adjusted money supply in the year t o date i s s l i g h t l y l e s s than previously indicated. Hot for publication Banking Section, Division of Research and S t a t i s t i c s , Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. April 18, I960 l.lt.3 Table 1 Estimated Changes in Loans and Investments at All Commercial Banks (In b i l l i o n s of dollarsJ Last Wednesday of Feb, t o l a s t Wednesday of March 1957 1956 1955 + 1.1 + l.lt + 0.9 + 1.2 + 2.1 + 1.0 + 1.0 + + + + 0.6 CM •"0.3 HI - ^.1 -K* + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.2 1/ Sales finance companies Business l e s s s a l e s finance U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s r - 2.0 y Other securities Total ( l e s s bank) — 0.8 Business Real estate Security Agricultural Consumer Nonbank financial All other Sales finance companies Business l e s s sales finance . + -o.i V + 1.6 : + 0.2 m-0.1 + 0.2 3/ + 0.1 + + + ** + 0.6 0.2 0.2 0*3 0.2 3/ + 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.5 + 0.3 + 0.9 + 0.2 + l.lt + 0.1 + o.5 - 2.3 + 1.3 - — 0*6 - + 0.2 + 0.7 + 0.2 , + 2.8 + 0.3 - 0.8 1.1 y 2.6 + 0.2 + 1.4 — l.lt Last Wednesday of Feb. to l a s t Wednesday of March 19$k 1953 1952 1951 1950 19li9 Item Total loans ( l e s s bank) 1.0 0,2 0.1 0.2 0.2 H 1958 4 Business 2 / Real estate Security Agricultural Consumer Nonbank financial All other 2 / 19# 1 Total loans ( l e s s bank) I960 + item + 0.8 + 1.0 + 0.5 + 0.9 + 0.7 + O.lt + + + + + 0.5 1/ + 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0,1 + 0.6 + 0.1 — 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.3 *-0.1 . + ^0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 % % i 1/ + 0.3 1/ + 0.5 + 0.1 + 0.1 U. S» Government s e c u r i t i e s - - - Other securities + 0.1 2.3 l.ll + 0.2 0.2 + 0.2 1 3/ • 0.1 + -0.2 n.a® n.a* n* a# n.a. i/ n.a. n.a* n+a* n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a# n.a. - 0*3 - 1*3 - + 0.2 * Oelt + 0.2 1.3 Total ( l e s s bank) + 0.6 - 0.2 - 1.5 + 0.7 - 0,2 - 0.7 1/ Less than #$0 million. n . a . Not available 2 / Data for I960 are on revised basis (beginning June 1959) and exclude loans to noribank financial i n s t i t u t i o n s . For previous years, loans to sales finance companies at weekly reporting banks have been shown separately to provide roughly comparable changes in business loans on revised b a s i s . 3/ Included in business and "other loans". http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ ft/ Reserve See above data* Federal Bank of St. Louis L.lt.3 Table 1 Estimated Changes in Loans and Investments at All Commercial Banks (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) End of December to l a s t Wednesday of March 2 / I960 1959 3 / 1958 1957 1956 1955 Item Total loans ( l e s s bank) Business h/ Real estate Security Agricultural Consumer Nonbank financial All other h/ — 0.8 - 0.1 - 1.7 — 0.6 + 1.3 + 0.8 + + + + - + + 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 O.li - 1.3 + 0.1 + 0.3 + + — + + + — + Sales finance companies Business l e s s s a l e s finance 0.6 0.1 1.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 1/ f/ U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s - it.7 Other s e c u r i t i e s - O.li Total ( l e s s bank) — 6.0 Business 5 / Real estate Security Agricultural Consumer Nonbank financial AH other 5 / - -0.3 + -0.1 5/ — 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 i/ + 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 — 0.5 — 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.2 — 0.3 + 1.6 + 0.1 + O.li - 3.2 + l.li - 2.9 - 3.0 - + 1.0 + 0.2 - 0.1 + 047 + 0.6 - — 1.8 1/ - 3.3 — 0.6 + O.li + + - • - 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 3.1 0.2 + 1.7 v - 0.1 + 0.1 - 0.3 + 1.8 + 0.3 — O.li % + -0.1 0.2 0.5 1/ + 0.6 - K.i - - -0.1 + 0.1 n.a. n.a. - 0.2 0.3 — 0.1 + 0.3 - 0.3 + 0.2 U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s - 2.7 • - Other securities + O.li Sales finance companies Business l e s s sales finance - "0.7 0.5 0.6 O.li 0.3 0.3 It. 8 - 3.3 End of December t o l a s t Wednesday of March 2 / 1951i 1953 1952 1951 1956 19li9 Item Total loans ( l e s s bank) y + 0.3 - O.li 1.3 O.li 2.8 + 0.2 O.li + 0.3 - 3.2 + 0.2 + 0.6 + + + - - 0.3 1/ -o.li 0.1 0.1 0.2 y n.a. n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a. % 1.2 + 0.6 n.a. n.a. - 1.7 + 0.1 Total ( l e s s bank) - 3.0 - 2.3 - O.li — l.li 1/ - 1.9 y Less than $50 million. n.,a. Not Available w uates are i o r uecemoer j i , 3/ As a result of bank structure changes in January 1959 t o t a l credit increased over #2j00 million; t o t a l loans #3.00 million; U. S. Govt, s e c u r i t i e s , $100 million; and other s e c u r i t i e s , $100 million. k/ Beginning June 1959 data are on revised basis and exclude loans to nonbank financial i n s t i t u t i o n s . For previous years, loans to sales finance companies at weekly reporting banks have been shown separately to provide roughly comparable changes in business http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ loans 5 / Included in business and "other loans". 6 / See above data. Federal Reserve on Bankrevised of St. Louis basis. Table 2 Changes i n Loans and Investments at Reporting and Nonreporting, Banks """"" (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) ' ~ Last Wednesday in Feb. to l a s t Wednesday in March Item I960 Weekly reporting banks 1959 1958 1957 1956 1955 1/ Total loans V. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s Other securities Total loans and investments + 0.7 - 1.0 1/ , - + + - 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.2 + + + + 0.7 1.3 0.5 2.5 + + + 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 + 1.7 - 0*3 2/ , + l.it + + - 0,9 1.9 0.1 0.9 + 0.2 2/ + 0.2 + 0.3 + + - 0.1 o#5 0.1 0.3 + O.lj. - 0.3 2/ 2/ + + - 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.5 Nonreporting banks 1 / Total loans tJ. S. Government securities Other securities Total loans and investments - 0.5 + 0.3 — 0.8 2/ , — 0.6 Last Wednesday in Feb. to l a s t Wednesday in March Item Weekly reporting banks + Q*h - 1*0 1951 1953" 0.5 1.6 o.i i*i + 0.7 — 0.8 + 0.1 + + + + 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 + + + + + +, - + + + 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 + 0.1* " O.ii + 0.1 2/ 1952 1951 1950 1919 1/ Total loans U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s Other securities Total loans and investments + + - 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 + • — 0.3 1.0 0.3 O.lt + + - 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.8 + + + O.lj 0.3 0.1 0.2 + + + 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Nonreporting banks 1 / Total loans U. S. Government Other s e c u r i t i e s Total loans and investments + 0.3 - 0.7 2/ . - 0.4 1 / Beginning 1959 changes are on revised basis* 2/ Less than $50 million. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Not for publication Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 - 8 - Table 2 Changes i n Loans and Investments at Reporting and Nonreporting Banks (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Last Wednesday in Dec, t o l a s t Wednesday in March Item I960 1959 1958 1956 1957 1955 Weekly reporting banks 1 / Total loans U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s Other s e c u r i t i e s Total loans and investments - 1.2 3.0 0.2 4.3 + - O.li 3/+ O.h 1.7 0.2 Si! 1.7 3/-- 0 . 4 o.5 2.5 0.1 2.9 + — + '+ + 1.7 1.7 0.8 6.8 + - 0.9 1.5 0.1 2.3 + - 1.0 2.1 2A - 1.1 + — +. - 0.5 li.O 0.I4 3.1 0.3 1.k 0.1 6.8 + - + + - 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 Nonreporting banks 1 / Total loans U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s Other s e c u r i t i e s Total loans and investments & + + "0.3 0.2 6.2 + mm 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.7 Last Wednesday an Dec. t o l a s t Wednesday in March Item 19Sh 1953 1952 1951 1950 19h9 Weekly reporting banks 1 / Total loans U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s Other s e c u r i t i e s Total loans and investments + *• 1.3 2.0 O.it 2.0 - 0.1 2.3 0.2 5.3 + - 0.3 0.3 0.2 6.3 + + - 1.1 2.8 0.1 1.6 2/ - 1.1* + 0.5 - 0.9 — + - 0.5 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.6 0.1* Oil 0.2 + + • + + - 0.2 Nonreporting banks 1 / Total loans U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s Other s e c u r i t i e s Total loans and investments + 0.7 - 0.7 2/ — 0.2 0.5 2°f* 2/ + • - 0.1 0.1 Oil 0.1 + + 0.6 0.2 Oil 0.9 0.5 Oil 0.3 1 / Beginning 1959 changes are on revised b a s i s , 2 / Less than $50 million 3 / As a r e s u l t of bank structure change i n January 1959 t o t a l credit increased over $1*00 million; t o t a l loans #300 million; U. S. Government S e c u r i t i e s , #100 million; and other s e c u r i t i e s , $100 million Table 3 Changes in Commercial and Industrial Loans 1 / (In millions of dollars) Business of Borrower Food processors Commodity dealers Trade concerns Total Sales finance Last Wednesday in February to l a s t Wednesday in March 1960 1959 1958 1956 1957 1955 1951 1953 -101 -185 +181 -105 y - 1*6 + 39 + 93 + 73 - 53 -111 + 80 + 8 + 2*3 - 73 +107 + 77 +235 +106 +292 +158 m +1*30 +233 - 16 - 13 - 80 + 91 - 83 - 58 -125 + 72 -111 -129 +11*3 + 98 + 16 + 15 n +391 7133 +1*56 W + 79 - 1*2 -132 - 62 - 1*8 A l l other - t o t a l Metals and products T e x t i l e s , apparel and leather Petroleum, coal, etc, Other manufacturing and mining Public u t i l i t i e s Construction All other types of business + 81* + 2l* + 73 Classified Unclassified +702 +11*7 +781 +135 +1*83 +1,089 +1,371* +1*70 +297 + 91 + 52 + 96 2/+19 3/+20 +1*21 +818 +916 +571 +1,11*1 +l,l*70g/+i*89 jy+317 +1*68 +818 +681 +1*68 +81*9 +1,312 2/+391 3/-301 +1*53 Total change Total change excluding sales finance +101 - 13 +121 + 37 + 31 w - 10 + h9 - 6 *L 75 + 81* +111 + 73 + 87 + 29 + 88 + 27 + 92 - 20 + 92 + 90 +126 + 1*9 - 9 + 36 +105 + 17 + 1*9 + 50 + 57 + 18 + 9 + 8# + 2 +11*5 +226 + 3 + 8 + 60 + 21 + 1*0 + 1*3 + 67 + 21 + 1*7 1/ Prior t o week ending January 11, 1956, included changes i n agricultural loans 2 / Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have declined $60 million. 3 / Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have increased $175 million. h / Not included in business loans on revised b a s i s . Note 1 C l a s s i f i e d data are f o r a sample of about 210 banks reporting changes in t h e i r larger loans; these banks hold over 95 per cent of t o t a l commercial and industrial loans of a l l weekly reporting banks and about 75 per cent of those of a l l commercial banks• ir - 10 Table 3 Changes in Commercial and Industrial Loans 1 / (In millions of dollars) Business of Borrower Food processors Commodity dealers Trade Concerns Total Sales finance All other total Metals and products Textiles, apparel and leather Petroleum, coal e t c . Other manufacturing and mining Public u t i l i t i e s Construction All other types of business Classified Unclassified Total change Total change excluding sales finance Last Wednesday i n December t o l a s t Wednesday in March I960 1958 1959 1956 1955 1951 1953 19?7 19?2 -3h7 -268 -176 + 92 -352 -&00 -215 -181 -796 -305 -253 -12li -682 -190 -103 + 96 -197 -279 —260 - 11 -550 -250 -21k - 68 -532 -236 -301 +117 -120 -lt22 -333 -12k -879 y -12lt -510 +136 -321 +105 -219 -106 -325 +31$ +825 -las +172 -593 +1,182 + l g | | 7 >667 +1,129 +9P +7W S i +253 - h6 +129 - 77 - 2k +150 +136 + 53 +138 +20k +192 +195 + 89 - 75 +I51i + 37 + 17 +192 +16U - 37 + 19 + 95 -210 + h +109 -190 - lit +112 +lko - Ik +21k +30k - 30 + k3 +106 + k + 2 + 56 + 10 + 25 + 31 + 17 + 55 + W - 97 - 15 -133 - 19 + 12 + 5 - 13 - 38 +586 - 25 -139 - 65 -989 -230 +280 -116 +1,119 +222 -677 + 1 2/-b8 3/+6o + 1*9 -102 - 73 + 18 +561 -203 -1,219 +161 +1,120 2/+17k 3/-617 - 53 - 55 +561 - 79 -709 + 28 + 53 +270 H I +1,144 2/+ 69 3/-398 - 9 - 36 l/ ?/ ~ 3/ f r i o r to week ending January 11, 1956 included changes in agricultural loans. Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of interest which are estimated to have declined $170 million. Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated to have increased $175 million. h / Not included in business loans on revised basis. Note: Classified data for a sample of about 210 banks reporting changes in their larger loans, these banks hold over 95 per cent of t o t a l commercial and industrial loans of a l l weekly reporting banks and about 75 per cent of those of a l l commercial banjos. Not for publication ' L.iu3 11 Table it Estimated Changes in Deposits and Currency {In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Item Last Wednesday of Feb. to l a s t Wednesday in Mar. I960 Seasonally adjusted data 1 / demand deposits adjusted"* Currency outside banks Total Seasonally unadjusted data 1 / Demand deposits adjusted ~ Currency outside banks Total Time deposits Commercial banks Mutual savings banks U. S. Government deposits Total Factors affecting deposits and currency Bank loans and investments other than U. S. Govt, s e c . 3 / Commercial ™* Mutual savings Bank holdings of U. S. Government securities: Federal Reserve Commercial Mutual saving and other Gold stock and foreign deposits at F, R. Banks Other factors h/+ 0.3 ~+ 0.1 + O.lt - 1*7 + 0.1 13 + 1.0 + 0.6 + O.lt - 0.1 - 0.6 1959 + + 0.5 0.2 0.7 - 1.0 + 0.2 + + + - 0^ 0.8 0.1; 0.3 0.6 0.7 1958 + 0.1; 2/ 1957 - 0o2 + 0.1t - 1L 0.2 - ** 1.0 A + 1.6 + 1.2 + 0.3 + 2.2 + 2.8 + + + 1*8 | 1956 1955 + 0.6 + 0.2 + 0.6 + 0.2 _2l_ - 1.2 0.8 r ^ 2 + 0.5 + 0.3 0*lt + 2.5 + 1.7 i75 l.o 0.2 1.2 + 0.2 2/ - 2;i + + + + 0.2 0.3 0.2 - 0.1 2.2 - 0.5 l.lt (signs indicate e f f e c t on deposits and currency + + - 1.0 0.2 1,9 + 0.1 - 2.0 + 0.1 + -0.3 + + i;8 TT! 0.2 - 2.1 - 2.3 1/ -"O.lt + + + + 2.0 3 3 0.2 l.lt 07L 1.3 0.1 + 0.2 + 2.2 + 2.1 + 0.2 + + 0.3 - - - 2.7 + 1.7 + l.lt - 0.2 O.lt 0.9 + 0.2 - 1.1 2/ ir O.lt O.lt r 1.5 1.2 — 0.6 2/ - 2.6 2/ - -o.i - "0.2 l / Seasonally adjusted data are for l a s t Wednesday throughout; unadjusted data are for l a s t Wednesday except in case of June and December c a l l dates, when available. 2/ Less than #50 million. 3 / Total includes foreign loans on gold, holdings of bankers' acceptances at the - Federal Reserve, and loans to foreign banks? changes in these items are generally r e l a t i v e l y small. In addition even i f there were no changes in these items, changes at commercial and mutual savings banks would not add to t o t a l change which i s "net" because commercial banks exclude a l l interbank loans, domestic and foreign. k/ The special adjustment in the seasonal factor for demand deposits adjusted for March 30, I960, (described in the February I960 Bulletin, page 135) has been changed from - 0 . 9 to - 0 . 5 mainly to r e f l e c t changed pattern of deposit movements immediately preceding April 1 I l l i n o i s personal property tax assessment date. The new factor forMarch 30, I960, i s 97.9. S L.lw3 Table It -12 - Estimated Changes in Deposits and Currency (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) End of December to l a s t Wednesday of March Item Seasonally adjusted data 1 / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total Seasonally unadjusted data 1 / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total Time deposits Commercial banks Mutual savings banks U. S. Government deposits Total Factors affecting deposits and currency ~ Bank loans and investments other than U. S. Govt. s e c . 3 / Commercial Mutual savings Bank holdings of U. S. Government securities: Federal Reserve Commercial Mutual saving and other Gold stock and foreign deposits at F. R. Banks Other factors I960 S A o.9 + 0.2 - 0*7 + + + - 6.6 1.3 7.9 O.lt 0.1 o.lt 0.6 0.1 195? y 1958 1957 1956 + l.lt + 0.1 + 1.5 + o.5 — 0.1 * o.lt - 0.2 + 0.2 2/ ?/ - + + + * - — + + + - — + + + - 5.2 0.8 6.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 5.5 5.7 0.9 6.6 3 .It 2.7 0.7 1.7 l.lt 6.2 0,9 7.1 2 .It 2.0 O.lt 0.2 w 2/ 2/ + + + + - 5.5 i.i 6.6 0.9 O.lt 0.5 2.6 3.2 1955 + W 2/' + 1.5 + + + + - It.2 1.2 5:3 0.9 o.lt 0.6 0.2 it. 2 (signs indicate e f f e c t on deposits and currency) - 1.6 - 0.2 + 0.5 + 0.3 — 6*2 - - 1.2 - 1.3 It.7 2/ + 0.1 - O.lt 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - - 3.9 - + 0.1 3.2 Q.5 - 0.7 + l.lt 2/ — 0.2 — 0.2 - 0.0 - 1.2 0.7 + 0.8 — 1.8 - 0.3 - li.7 + 0.6 - 1.0 2.9 2/ + 0.3 - O.b + + 1.6 TI? 0.7 + 2.1 + 1.5 + 0.6 — It.l - 6.1 - 3.0 2/. — lt.8 2/ + 0.1 + 0.1 - 0.3 - 1.2 — 0.8 1/ Seasonally adjusted data are for l a s t Wednesday throughout; unadjusted data are for l a s t Wednesday except in case of June and December c a l l dates, when available. 2 / Less than $50 million. 3 / Total includes foreign loans on gold, holdings of bankers' acceptances at the ~~ Federal Reserve, and loans to foreign banks; changes in these items are generally r e l a t i v e l y small. In addition even i f there were no changes in other items, changes at commercial and mutual savings banks would not add.to t o t a l change which i s "net" because commercial banks exclude a l l interbank loans, domestic and foreign k/ In January 1959, as a result of the addition of a l l banks in Alaska, time deposits at commercial banks increased almost $100 million and demand deposits adjusted increased about $100 million. As a result of the absorption of a mutual savings bank, time deposits at commercial banks increased $300 million and those at mutual savings banks declined $300 million. £ / See note it on previous page. Not f o r publication — 13 — Table 5 Free Reserves (excess reserves minus member bank borrowings; based on averages of daily figuresj in millions of dollars) All member New York Chicago Reserve city - — 16 1* 1 - 17 - 27 63 - 55 - 191* 366 1*22 1*21* 280 - 25 - 52 - 202 - 168 - - 225 137 11*6 196 - 123 Country Quarterly averages 1958: First Second Third Fourth 31b 508 314 25 1959: First Second Third Fourth — 82 - 363 - 528 - 1*39 I960: First - 313 - 1959: January February March April May June July August September October November December - — 65 - 28 16 - 89 - 51 - 15 - 151* - 225 - 227 - 210 - 181* - 109 January February March - 360 - 361 - 219 February 2l* March 2 9 16 23 30 April 6 - I960: Note: 59 1*7 11*0 258 318 513 557 535 1*93 159 1*35 1*25 195 353 229 215 135 - 2kh - 291 - . - - 10 18 28 a 1*6 - - 67 56 1*2 83 53 26 122 6I4. ia 63 1*7 35 hk - 82 - 62 - 10lt 215 393 1*31 385 , - 223 195 228 281* 360 535 1*82 1*20 391 338 369 1*1*9 281 202 191* 178 133 101 121* 11*5 169 171 180 237 257 197 182 88 50 1 - 90 - 126 - 152 - 1*39 - 381 - 252 5 25 1* 7 18 3 19 - 95 - 88 - ho - 129 — 256 - 197 - 120 - 225 1*1*1* 290 3l*2 Ill* 196 271* Data for second half of March and April are preliminary# http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Not for publication Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 212 - 357 1 120 201* 105 262 216 11*5 85 — Ill — Table 6 Changes in Member Bank Reserves, -with Relevant Factors (Monthly average of daily figures; in millions of dollars) January-March March Item I960 I960 1959 Year ending Mar. I960 1959 1959 Member bank reserves Required reserves 1 / E f f e c t of reduction in requirements E f f e c t of deposit change Excess reserves 3 / Total reserves held Cash allowed as reserves Reserve balances - Ili7 Effect of above factors on reserves 11*9 - — - Ili7 39 186 9 177 - 119 + 1 - 11*8 — II4.8 - 839 — 839 66 905 1*7 858 - Itllt - 357 131 — — — lillt 56 - 1*70 —— - - 170 - 357 1*5 - 1*02 + 257 - 659 - 131 170 301 - - 301 637 [signs in<iicate ef: 'ect on n sserves) Principal factors Currency in circulation Gold stock and foreign accounts Treasury operations Federal Reserve f l o a t Other factors - - 1*7 + + + 2 5b 32 £0 19 - 197 - 69 +1,117 +i,ia - 1*01 - + 36 1*2 7 1* - ISO + 92 + 23 - 360 + 2 66 +1,168 - 165 19 - 51*2 7h + 3hb + + + - 923 361* 112 308 51*0 -2,11*7 + 80 + 61 93 -2,736 + 5 -2,027 - 816 - 119 +2,1*31 86 - 103 + 17 3 -1,726 -1,732 + 6 27 - 866 816 50 6 - 136 - 139 + 3 +1,960 +1,935 + 25 7 + + - + + m 12 + - + 1*63 + 18 Federal Reserve loans and investments: Total U. S. Govt, s e c u r i t i e s Outright Repurchase agreements Acceptances Discounts and advances: To member banks To others — + - 12 £8 16 h 181 l / Data for March I960 are preliminary. Not for publication 93 1 271 3 31* 17 L.k.3 ' 15 " Table 7 ft Loan - Deposit Ratios All commercial banks Date 1953: 1954: 1955: 1956: 1957: 1958: Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. 31 31 31 31 31 31 Jan. 28 Feb. 25 Mar. 25 Apr. 29 May 27 June 2k July 29 Aug. 26 Sept.30 Oct. 28 Nov. 25 Dec. 31 I I 9 6 0 : Jan. 27 Feb. 24 Mar. 30 1959: * li0.5 40.3 1:5.8 48.8 49.7 lt8.it 48.6 49.3 50.3 50.5 51.4 52.5 52.6 53.3 53.lt 53*6 51t.lt 51.0 51t.lt 55.6 56.5 Total Itlil ltO.7 46.7 50.1 51.0 lt9.lt lt9.5 50.3 51.3 51.5 52.lt 53.6 53.7 51t.5 54.7 54.9 55.8 55.6 55.9 57.1 58.0 Member Banks Central reserve d.ty Reserve New York Chicago city 50.6 46.8 39.1 38.3 46.3 52.7 55.2 49.4 57.7 58.2 58.7 59.0 65;5 65.3 48.3 48.7 51.9 50.5 51.8 54.4 54.0 55.6 57.2 69.5 67.3 58.2 56.7 61.7 61.9 57.7 60.0 62.2 62.6 66.6 67.4 69.4 69.4 56.6 56.2 58.2 62.7 64.5 42.2 41.9 48.5 52.7 53.3 51.3 51.5 52.7 53.8 53.8 55.1 56*1 56.5 57.1 57.6 57.5 58.4 58.2 58.9 60,4 61.4 Total loans (adjusted to exclude loans to banks) as per cent of t o t a l deposits (adjusted to exclude cash items In process of collection) Not for publication Loan - Deposit Ratios 1 / End of December 2/ Member Banks Central reserve c i t y Reserve New York Chicago city All commercial banks member banks 1896 1897 1898 1899 92.3 81.6 80.3 76 . 5 n.a. n. a. He 5Le n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n. a. n. a* n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a* n.a. 1900 1901 1902 1903 1901; 77.1 76.3 77.6 79.8 76.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a* n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 77.1 79.2 79.2 76.1 75.8 n.a* n.a# n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a, n.a* n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a* n. a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a. n.a. n.a* 1910 1911 1912 1913 1911 78.6 75.8 75.7 77.li 76.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 77.lt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a* n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a* n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a. n.a* 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 75.7 63.8 71.1 72.8 71.3 71.1 70.5 69.1 70.7 71*. 8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 78.7 n.a. n. a. n.a. n.a. 80.7 n*a. n. a. n.a* n.a. 77.5 n.a. n.a. n.a* n.a. 69.3 1920 1921 1922 1923 192k 81.1 81.5 73.7 73.3 68.5 83.3 77.lt 70.5 71.8 66.8 85.0 72.5 68.3 7l.lt 66.7 - 93.3 81.6 72.7 76.2 71.1 89.9 79.7 71.0 73.8 67.6 78.2 77.6 70.8 69.9 65.lt 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 71.3 72.1* 70.5 72.2 75.0 70.2 71.0 69.2 71.6 7l».6 73.9 73.8 76.0 79.1 81.9 75.7 75.8 73.7 78.8 79.0 70.7 72.6 69.5 71.0 71.5 67.0 67.lt All 1 Country 6k, 6 66.9 69.7 n . a . Not available 1 / Total loans (adjusted to exclude loans to banks) as per cent of t o t a l deposits (adjusted to exclude cash items in process of c o l l e c t i o n . ) Prior to 1928 loans to banks are estimated throughout. Prior to 191+7, loans to banks for a l l commercial banks are estimated. 2/ End of June 1896-1922 f o r a l l commercial banks - 17 - L.lt.3 Loan - Deposit Ratios 1 / All commercial banks 68.8 65.5 56.5 50.7 39.0 35.0 3U.1 37.2 33.1 30.8 30.0 32.0 22.6 18.8 17.lt 18.0 23 . 3 27.7 All member banks Member Banks Central reserve c i t y Reserve New York Chicago city 68.1 61.5 53.5 1*8.2 75.1 66.lt 37.2 36.7 33.lt 32.9 36.0 31.lt 29.3 28.5 30.8 21.6 18.5 17.lt 18.3 23.7 28.2 lt6.1 lt8.6 3li.7 35.5 37.3 19.6 31.6 2lt.3 19.7 20.1 22.2 2lt.7 17.3 19.1 19.0 26.2 19.8 27.7 31.0 36.1 37.6 39.9 12.5 lt6.3 U9.7 hd.b 5l,o lt6.7 50.1 51.0 lt9.lt 55.6 32.2 20.2 35.8 37.2 39.3 ltS.8 32.5 23.3 31.1 2i5.8 36.2 36.7 32.9 31.5 35.9 3lt.9 lt0.7 19.3 23.lt 25.5 514.3 lt7.0 18.6 17.8 31.3 30.9 ltl.1 25.2 66.lt 6I4.6 28.lt 31.2 it0.5 h0.3 66.5 61.9 lt0.lt 35.1 5G.6 50.6 lt6.8 56.7 61.7 61.9 57.7 67.3 27.3 30.3 30.lt 25.6 32.3 36.2 38.9 39.1 38.3 lt6.3 52.7 55.2 19.1 58.2 Country 65.6 6^.1 60.9 51.9 11.3 36.it 33.5 36.3 35.lt 35.lt 3lt.O 35.9 3lt.7 18.7 17.1 16.7 13.9 18.2 26.0 13.1 18.9 23.lt 27.1 28.5 38.1 31.5 32.1 33.9 22.8 31.1' 33.lt 32.lt 39.lt ltl.1 lt2.2 ltl.9 18.5 52.7 53.3 51.3 58.2 23.0 36.1 37.1 lt0.7 lt2.6 Ut.l Mt.l' 18.2 n.a. Not available 1 / Total loans (adjusted to exclude loans to banks) as per cent of t o t a l deposits (adjusted to exclude cash items in process of c o l l e c t i o n . ) Prior to 1928 loans to banks are estimated throughout. Prior t o 19hl, loans to banks for a l l commercial banks are estimated. DepositRmdCurrenl^ (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Year or month End of Dec. 1953 195k 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959: Jan. as y Feb. Mar. 25 Apr. 29 y May 27 June 2lt July 29 Aug. 26 5/ Sept, 30 Oct. 28 r Nov. 25 r Dec. 31 6 / r 1960i Jan. 27P Feb. 2UP Mar. 30p Seasonally Seasonally adjusted Total Time deposits adjusted money supply 1 / CurU. S. deposits money Demand rency and Gov't# Cursupply and deposits Demand Postal outside Mutual deposits currency CommerTotal rency Total banks (5+6+10 savings savings 2/ (2+3) deposits outside time dep. adjusted (7+8+9) c i a l at com'1 adjusted banks +11) banks(1+7) 126:6 99:3 103:1 106:1 107.1 105.8 110.7 27:3 26:9 2i :k 27.U 139:5 139:6 Ilt0:3 ao:u iuo:6 lltO.9 ibi:2 Ut0.9 llt0.8 UtolU lltO.l 111:5 111:6 112:1 112:2 112 :it 28:0 1U0.2 112.6 112.1 112:0 111.8 112.0 11*0.0 111.7 130:0 133:5 13U.5 133.6 138.8 139.1 139.5 112.6 112:9 110.8 111.1 27.8 28.1 2$;o 29:2 28:2 28:2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.U 28 Ik 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.lt 2U:it 26:3 28:1 30.0 31:7 3U.0 2:U 2:1 1:9 1.6 1:3 1.1 it:8 89.1 98.3 to: 7 w:8 us;u 50.6 56:1 63.2 98:lt 98:7 99:5 99:9 100:5 101:1 100:8 101.2 101.5 101.1 100.3 101.8 63:14 63:7 6b:i 6it:5 65:0 65:it 65:3 65.5 65.7 65.5 61t.7 65.9 33:8 3u:o 3k:3 3k:3 3it:k 3it:6 3it:5 3lt.7 3U.8 3lt.6 3U.6 3U.9 1:1 1.1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 5:3 5.0 k'.k 5:1 5:7 5:2 5:6 6.5 7.1 6.0 5.1 5.8 27:6 206:3 206.5 206.lt 206.5 205.9 20lt.8 206.1 113.8 KIM 110:3 112:5 no;? 110.7 112.7 111.1 ni.it 112.7 113.1 115.it 205.2 20b.5 lllt.o 110.5 101.0 101.2 102.2 65.2 3U.9 3U.9 35.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 lt.lt 5.3 5.2 27.9 170:3 176:8 181:9 185.1 189:7 102:5 202:9 202.0 203:3 20k:k 20lw9 205:6 205.5 106:6 109:9 lll.lt 110.3 115.5 108.8 70: It 75:3 78;lt 82.2 65.lt 66.0 5:1 k:k it. 9 28:1 27:9 28:3 28:3 28.3 28.7 27:7 27:9 27:9 28:1 28:3 28:it 28.5 28.5 28.3 29.1 29.lt 28.0 28.1 205:7 21k:8 22i:0 226.lt 232.3 2lt7.5 2lt5:l 2lt2:7 2ll2:o 2it5:L 2it5:o 2lt5.lt 2lt7.6 2lt7.lt 2lt8.5 2lt8.2 2lt7.6 252.lt 2lt7.3 2ltlt.9 2UU.3 p PrmTiminary. ~y Seasonally adjusted s e r i e s begins i n 191t6 and i s available only for l a s t Wednesday of the month. 2j At commercial, savings, and Federal Reserve Banks. As a r e s u l t of the addition of a l l banks i n Alaska, time deposits at commercial banks increased almost $100 million and demand deposits adjusted increased about $100 m i l l i o n . As a r e s u l t of the absorption of a mutual savings bank, time deposits at commercial banks increased $300 million and those at mutual savings banks declined $300 m i l l i o n , kj As a r e s u l t of inclusion of a national bank i n Hawaii, demand deposits adjusted increased about $100 m i l l i o n and time deposits at commercial banks about $100 m i l l i o n . 5 / As a r e s u l t of inclusion of a l l banks i n Hawaii, demand deposits adjusted increased about $200 million and time deposits at commercial banks about $200 m i l l i o n . On balance i n 1959, as a result of structure changes, demand deposits adjusted increased $U00 m i l l i o n , time deposits at commercial banks increased $700 million; and time deposits at mutual savings banks declined $300 m i l l i o n . 6 / Demand deposits were reduced about $lt00 million as a r e s u l t of a http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ r technical under Regulation B amending the d e f i n i t i o n of such deposits. Revised Federal Reserve Bank of St.change Louis Loans and Investments at i l l Commercial Banks (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Loans and investments Date U. S. Other Govt, secur- Total secur- i t i e s loans ities Business Real Secuestate r i t y Noribank financial All ConFarm sumer i n s t i t u - other tions 1953: 195U: 1955$ 1956: 1957: Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. 31 31 31 31 31 115.5 155.7 160.3 16U.5 169.3 63.lt 69.0 61.6 58.6 58.2 111. 7 16.3 16.7 16.3 17.9 67.lt 70.lt 82.0 89.7 93.2 27.2 26.9 33.2 38.7 Uo.5 16.7 I8.lt 20.8 22.5 23.1 3.6 U.5 5.0 It.3 It.2 5.0 5.2 lt.5 lt.2 lt.1 10.9 10.9 13.2 Ht.6 15.8 — 5.1 5.6 6.5 6.9 7.2 1958: Nov. Dec. 26 31 182.7 18U.U 67.7 66.U 20.3 20.6 91.7 97.5 39.3 U0.lt 25.0 25.3 3.9 It.7 It.9 15.7 15.9 — 7.9 8.2 183.8 181.9 181.1 183.8 183.9 18U.2 67.5 65.5 63.2 63.6 62.6 60.9 20.L 20.lt 20.6 20.9 20.8 20.6 95.9 96.0 97.lt 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.9 It.2 lt.0 100.5 102.8 39.2 39.2 U0.2 lt0.6 ltl.lt lt2.5 18U.2 185.7 186.1 186.3 186.7 186.1 189.5 60.9 61.1 60.3 59.2 59.6 58.5 58.9 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.7 20.6 20.3 20.5 102.8 103.9 105.3 106.3 106.5 107.3 110.0 37.8 37.8 38.2 38.7 38.8 39.lt lt0.2 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 lt.1 lt.1 185.6 I81i.3 183.5 58.0 56.2 5U.2 20.3 20.1 20.1 I07.lt 108.1 109.2 39.lt 39.8 ltO.8 28.1 28.2 28.2 3.9 1959: 1/ Jan. Feb. Mar. 2/ Apr. May June 28 25 25 29 27 2k June 2k July 29 2 / Aug. 26 Sept.30 Oct. 28r Nov. 25r Dec. 31r I960: Jan. 27p r Feb. 2ltp r Mar. 30p 99.3 27.5 3.9 It.3 lt.1 lt.1 lt.1 It.2 lt.2 lt.1 It.9 3.7 3.3 5.0 5:o 5.o It.8 It.9 It.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 lt.9 5.0 lt.9 5.0 5.1 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.lt 17.lt 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.7 mammmm < s a B « e cm rim mm 8.0 8;i mm mm mm mmmm mm 8.2 8;lt 8.6 8.9 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.0 6.2 7.1 6.1 6.2 6.It 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.3 • 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.U 8.5 8.5 v-r— million in January as a result of bank structure changes. 2/ Total credit increased about $200 million as a result of bank structure changes, r Revised U Total credit increased about 8300 million as a result of bank structure changes. Structure changes in 1959, on balance through August, added almost $1 b i l l i o n to t o t a l credit; #6p0 million in loans ; #300 million in U, S. Government s e c u r i t i e s ; and #100 million i n other s e c u r i t i e s . Real estate loans increased about #300 million; business loans #100 million; consumer loans, #100 million; and other loans, #100 million. Note: Data exclude interbank loans. Total loans are after and types of loans before deductions for valuation reserves. Consumer and "other loans" are partly estimated f o r a l l dates. Other data are partly estimated on a l l but June and December call dates. Beginning June 2k, 1959, "business loanj^* and "all jrther loans^ have been revised t o e ^ u d e loansJp noribank j^iancial jj http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ i n s t -i tutions , Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis