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InternationalEconomicTrends November 2011 Construction and the Great Recession T he boom in real estate prices during the early 2000s and the subsequent bust were key factors underlying the recessions in the United States and Europe. How could housing prices affect the entire economy so drastically? When the price of a good or service goes up, people usually supply more of it. In this case, higher house prices led construction firms to build more houses. Once housing prices crashed, no one wanted to build houses anymore. This directly reduced the most common measure of output: gross domestic product (GDP). A logical expectation might be that the resources— workers and capital equipment—that had been producing houses would switch to producing other things that consumers did want (e.g., using those resources to build roads, provide health care, or make breakfast cereal). However, because construction workers cannot transfer their skills quickly or without cost to produce other goods, unemployment in the construction sector rose, directly reducing aggregate employment. In this essay, I use industry-level data from the United States and European countries to estimate the direct negative effect of the construction sector crash on GDP and aggregate employment. The results are summarized in two charts. The chart on the left shows the direct effect of the changes in construction sector employment from 2008 to 2010 versus total employment for 31 different countries. The change in construction sector employment is the construction sector’s proportion of 2008 employment times the percentage change in this sector’s employment from 2008 to 2010. This chart also contains a statistically fitted line that illustrates the strong relation between the two variables. The fitted line implies that declines in construction employment can directly account for about half of the observed changes in total employment. The chart on the right shows a similar analysis for the direct effects of construction sector output declines and declines in total GDP. The statistically fitted relation between these two variables is still positive, but a little weaker as the dots do not follow the line as closely. This weaker relation may be explained, at least in part, by the fact that the share of total employment in the construction sector is considerably higher than its share in GDP. These findings suggest that the direct impact of the crash of the construction sector is very important in understanding the changes in U.S. and European GDP and employment, but it is not the whole story. In addition to the direct effect of the decline in the construction sector on GDP and employment, the housing bust also indirectly affects the economy through other economic sectors. A construction slump reduces construction firm purchases from other sectors, which reduces employment and purchases in those sectors. These interconnections amplify the direct impact of the negative shock to the construction sector on GDP and employment. Further work is needed to better understand the forces driving the persistently high unemployment rate and lackluster economic growth since the recession. —Adrian Peralta-Alva Relation Between Construction Sector and 31 Countries (2008 vs. 2010) Employment GDP Growth Percentage Change in Total Employment Percentage Change in GDP 15 10 5 y = 2.3383x – 0.1313 (R 2 = 0.73415) LU 0 5 PL DEHR UK EU15 EA15 RO FR IT NL CZ DK HU FI PT USA 0 –5 IS –10 –15 IE EE –20 LV –25 –7 –6 –5 IE –10 TR BG ES LT MT BE CH BG GY GR PT SK TR BENL ES USA EA15 AT DK IT DE SI EU15 CZ FI y = 2.2747x – 4.0017 (R 2 = 0.35403) IS –15 PL SEHU NO UK RO EE –20 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 Percentage Change in Employment in Construction Sector * Share of Total Employment –25 –8 –7 –6 –5 –4 –3 -2 –1 0 Percentage Change in Value Added of the Construction Sector * Share of GDP NOTE: AT, Austria; BE, Belgium; BG, Bulgaria; CH, Switzerland; CY, Cyprus; CZ, Czech Republic; DE, Germany; DK, Denmark; EA15, euro area (15 countries); EE, Estonia; ES, Spain; EU15, European Union (15 countries); FI, Finland; FR, France; GR, Greece; HU, Hungary; IE, Ireland; IS, Iceland; IT, Italy; LT, Lithuania; LU, Luxembourg; LV, Latvia; MT, Malta; NL, Netherlands; NO, Norway; PL, Poland; PT, Portugal; RO, Romania; SE, Sweden; SI, Slovenia; SK, Slovakia; TR, Turkey; UK, United Kingdom. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org 1 Contents Page 3 7 13 18 22 26 30 36 42 48 54 60 65 71 77 83 Reference Tables Canada Euro Area France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States Brazil China India Korea Mexico Russia Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that were current through October 2011. Unless otherwise indicated, data are quarterly. 2. The percent change refers to the percent change from the same period in the previous year. For example, the percent change in x between quarter t – 4 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 4)–1] ×100. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly. Dear Reader, We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, International Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org Thank you, Chris Neely, Editor, International Economic Trends International Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; the annual edition is published in July. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/iet to download the quarterly issue of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please call (314) 444-8590. International Economic Trends Reference Tables Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area France* Germany* Italy* Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* India* China** 08.3 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 0.70 0.06 -0.46 0.53 -1.80 -1.18 -2.55 -0.62 1.07 3.16 7.06 6.31 6.55 . -0.70 -2.10 -2.10 -1.90 -3.36 -4.65 -5.36 -3.32 -1.19 -3.22 0.75 -1.76 3.27 9.60 -2.61 -5.27 -3.92 -6.82 -6.69 -9.91 -6.86 -4.55 -8.47 -4.04 -2.92 -8.26 3.93 . -3.66 -5.11 -3.22 -6.16 -6.30 -7.06 -5.87 -5.03 -8.19 -1.99 -2.76 -10.57 5.08 . -3.44 -4.19 -2.69 -5.03 -4.89 -6.21 -3.77 -3.73 -5.62 1.23 -1.81 -8.33 6.19 . -1.37 -2.06 -0.65 -2.20 -2.99 -1.81 -0.81 -0.54 -2.30 6.33 4.96 -2.97 7.52 9.22 2.08 0.95 1.03 2.39 0.66 5.52 0.93 2.17 5.12 8.44 9.32 3.03 11.26 . 3.64 2.10 1.47 4.05 1.43 3.32 2.20 3.30 7.25 7.29 9.09 5.15 . . 3.81 2.06 1.65 4.04 1.36 4.80 2.60 3.51 5.11 4.37 6.80 3.45 . . 3.34 1.94 1.41 3.76 1.53 2.48 1.33 3.14 4.24 4.71 5.06 4.41 . 10.33 2.86 2.40 2.18 4.64 1.05 -0.72 1.56 2.24 4.41 3.92 4.15 3.84 . . 2.15 1.62 1.67 2.76 0.82 -1.09 0.60 1.63 3.64 3.39 3.10 3.45 . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). ** Annual data. Nominal Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area France* Germany* Italy* Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* India* China* 08.3 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 6.77 2.00 1.96 1.21 0.51 -2.81 0.56 1.90 8.61 6.30 16.92 29.16 17.94 20.50 1.03 -0.25 0.38 -1.11 -0.77 -4.27 -1.67 -1.20 2.15 -0.71 10.83 7.81 11.29 18.15 -4.05 -3.80 -2.50 -6.04 -3.31 -9.20 -4.68 -2.66 -4.37 -0.82 3.76 -6.85 6.81 5.24 -6.91 -4.22 -2.57 -5.26 -4.29 -7.08 -4.43 -3.89 -5.42 1.38 2.26 -9.09 5.53 5.41 -6.83 -3.45 -2.58 -3.63 -2.56 -6.01 -1.96 -3.30 -3.01 4.85 2.83 -9.49 6.19 6.50 -0.51 -1.68 -1.02 -0.86 -1.81 -4.22 0.00 0.04 3.17 9.76 11.36 1.74 12.84 8.43 5.54 1.36 1.17 3.52 0.53 2.73 3.47 2.77 9.66 12.31 15.88 15.66 21.34 17.01 6.90 2.82 2.19 4.72 2.11 1.10 5.51 4.43 11.66 10.77 16.85 15.05 . 16.72 6.28 3.14 2.88 4.39 2.36 2.56 5.14 4.92 9.57 8.15 15.64 12.82 . . 6.39 2.94 2.61 4.10 2.37 0.76 4.53 4.74 9.24 9.48 13.33 19.76 . . 6.00 3.70 3.58 4.92 2.62 -2.82 3.91 4.13 9.44 7.45 12.58 18.58 . . 5.46 2.98 3.18 3.63 1.81 -3.43 2.75 3.77 8.96 4.89 12.45 20.14 . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Industrial Production Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area France Germany Italy Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* India* China* 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 -6.75 -8.96 -9.29 -7.72 -10.56 -14.39 -7.96 -9.09 -2.59 -11.40 -6.64 -9.04 1.24 6.43 -10.38 -18.19 -16.20 -21.41 -22.41 -31.25 -12.23 -13.45 -9.64 -15.64 -13.50 -14.24 -6.06 10.10 -13.05 -18.45 -15.57 -20.77 -23.75 -26.18 -11.19 -14.60 -9.72 -5.88 -12.26 -13.61 -1.62 8.97 -12.43 -14.50 -12.02 -17.18 -17.83 -20.02 -10.51 -10.67 -6.94 2.52 -8.11 -10.07 2.81 12.33 -6.69 -7.09 -5.01 -9.27 -9.64 -4.97 -6.02 -5.48 -2.65 18.78 6.22 1.99 5.98 17.93 2.09 5.10 4.33 7.05 4.33 26.34 0.30 1.54 5.34 26.41 18.49 9.34 13.93 14.57 7.83 9.29 7.23 13.47 8.77 19.95 1.75 6.50 7.63 18.79 14.31 10.88 9.79 16.00 8.05 7.35 4.24 11.94 7.65 13.01 3.16 6.89 6.43 12.91 7.72 6.62 6.71 13.53 5.39 8.10 4.60 13.60 5.21 6.70 3.33 6.26 4.69 9.94 3.54 6.73 8.66 13.30 4.71 6.50 4.78 13.48 2.15 -2.35 1.97 5.45 4.86 11.21 2.84 6.10 7.65 14.87 1.32 4.08 2.21 9.19 1.85 -6.94 -0.82 3.76 3.85 6.74 0.69 4.88 . 13.93 . . . . . . . 3.37 . . . . . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 International Economic Trends Reference Tables Employment Percent change from year ago Canada Euro Area France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil Russia* 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 0.93 -0.09 -0.77 1.09 -1.08 -0.80 -0.54 -1.51 -1.43 0.22 4.11 -0.33 -1.11 -1.21 -1.98 0.43 -2.11 -0.85 -1.29 -3.20 -0.71 -0.63 2.11 -2.46 -1.78 -1.86 -2.15 0.02 -2.92 -1.96 -2.16 -3.84 -1.24 -0.57 0.59 -3.10 -1.89 -2.22 -2.27 -0.21 -3.24 -1.75 -2.82 -4.06 0.92 -0.00 0.83 -2.21 -1.51 -2.12 -1.57 -0.29 -3.21 -1.92 -2.42 -3.99 2.89 -0.02 0.21 -1.59 0.34 -1.33 -0.51 -0.20 -1.65 -1.09 -2.05 -2.01 1.63 0.57 3.49 0.41 1.58 -0.59 0.14 0.45 -0.84 -0.55 -1.60 -0.75 2.99 1.82 4.54 0.92 1.92 -0.11 0.87 0.82 -0.79 -0.01 -1.01 -0.09 1.25 1.54 4.11 0.70 1.66 0.21 1.07 1.08 0.40 0.04 -0.59 0.54 -1.47 1.52 4.72 0.84 1.88 0.29 1.25 1.39 -0.73 -1.39 0.34 0.62 4.22 1.85 3.64 2.18 1.55 0.49 . . . -4.36 . 0.23 3.78 1.66 3.36 0.96 . . . . . . . 0.31 . . . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Unemployment Rate Percent Canada* Euro Area* France* Germany* Italy* Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* 08.3 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 6.13 7.70 7.83 7.43 6.87 4.03 5.87 6.03 3.90 3.17 7.77 6.37 6.43 8.20 8.20 7.43 6.97 4.07 6.30 6.90 4.47 3.27 7.83 7.27 7.83 9.00 8.97 7.60 7.33 4.47 7.03 8.20 4.97 3.53 8.40 8.20 8.43 9.50 9.47 7.77 7.57 5.13 7.70 9.27 5.57 3.87 8.20 8.63 8.50 9.83 9.60 7.87 8.07 5.40 7.80 9.67 5.87 3.73 7.97 8.47 8.40 10.07 10.00 7.73 8.27 5.23 7.70 9.97 5.47 3.53 7.80 8.20 8.23 10.10 9.90 7.50 8.47 5.07 7.93 9.70 5.37 4.30 7.27 7.93 8.03 10.20 9.80 7.20 8.57 5.13 7.73 9.63 5.43 3.50 6.93 7.53 8.03 10.17 9.80 6.90 8.27 5.03 7.73 9.57 5.23 3.60 6.63 7.30 7.67 10.10 9.70 6.60 8.33 5.03 7.77 9.63 5.47 3.40 6.10 7.07 7.77 9.97 9.70 6.30 8.10 4.70 7.73 8.90 5.13 3.87 6.17 6.73 7.47 9.97 9.73 6.13 7.97 4.60 7.90 9.10 5.50 3.40 . 6.63 * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Hourly Earnings Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area France Germany Italy Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* China 08.3 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 -0.16 3.01 3.22 2.53 3.95 0.60 2.94 2.71 0.44 2.19 13.12 30.72 17.08 -1.60 5.32 3.20 2.22 3.36 -1.62 2.50 3.14 1.24 -2.64 11.39 20.94 16.63 -5.30 3.78 2.79 1.73 3.60 -6.74 1.08 2.79 -0.73 1.62 10.82 12.69 12.37 -6.00 4.13 2.09 1.53 3.02 -9.71 0.53 2.62 -1.40 -1.33 8.76 8.56 11.24 -3.91 3.74 1.93 1.81 2.62 -5.96 0.87 2.94 -0.18 -0.94 6.65 6.59 11.47 -4.64 0.53 1.82 1.89 3.70 -6.17 2.21 2.46 -0.39 5.99 4.89 8.93 . 1.58 1.33 1.81 2.36 3.12 3.26 6.39 2.20 -0.03 9.46 7.51 11.40 . 3.21 0.62 1.78 2.35 3.19 4.78 3.71 2.19 -0.54 8.05 9.23 12.97 . 7.81 0.26 1.80 1.87 3.00 3.94 4.26 1.63 -0.64 12.51 11.09 12.79 . 6.87 1.50 1.79 1.95 1.83 3.03 2.71 1.98 -1.90 5.91 11.57 13.49 . 4.30 . 2.22 1.84 2.50 1.93 0.94 2.33 -0.64 0.77 9.72 9.11 . 5.87 . 2.56 2.57 2.49 0.94 1.66 1.90 -0.28 . 10.91 11.22 . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Note: Data for Brazil, China, Japan, Korea, and Russia represent monthly earnings. Data for the United Kingdom represent weekly earnings. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4 International Economic Trends Reference Tables Reserve Money Percent change from year ago Canada* Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* India* China* 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 5.43 1.94 6.81 67.59 16.74 14.98 -17.58 1.18 9.72 27.26 7.52 6.86 8.17 94.19 19.23 45.44 -17.67 -11.76 6.43 19.24 12.79 6.30 8.59 105.06 18.77 24.46 -19.25 -8.39 1.86 7.44 11.78 4.87 8.70 95.56 14.43 14.20 -18.11 -9.67 0.87 13.70 9.01 5.16 6.97 40.66 9.43 4.52 11.62 15.93 14.73 11.42 10.04 2.15 5.68 25.63 11.87 0.69 60.70 48.04 16.97 20.72 -2.19 3.64 5.63 15.35 8.70 12.70 92.27 44.84 23.36 24.45 -1.60 6.02 4.67 14.68 12.29 10.24 101.72 48.34 21.67 20.92 -0.98 6.99 3.99 -0.64 9.71 9.98 131.74 26.64 22.10 28.70 -2.81 16.95 3.65 7.36 6.28 8.55 68.06 18.08 19.14 28.35 3.85 16.96 3.71 27.70 9.94 8.24 41.29 2.99 16.06 31.92 . 16.81 5.32 33.77 . . . . . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Narrow Money Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* India* China* 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.36 3.91 -0.80 5.01 11.60 10.90 4.37 -2.02 2.17 10.56 9.36 12.37 7.36 0.01 2.51 12.27 14.86 13.72 6.49 -5.08 8.78 16.99 12.45 10.35 0.54 2.23 10.42 15.02 17.68 10.00 -5.57 12.74 24.72 13.67 13.32 0.87 3.46 9.35 13.99 19.04 6.12 -10.49 14.61 29.84 12.86 12.65 1.08 5.51 6.48 8.29 17.54 13.40 6.51 18.24 32.68 13.44 10.43 1.03 6.35 0.79 8.84 13.59 18.78 20.84 18.22 29.86 12.94 9.75 1.61 5.38 -1.76 10.67 9.86 15.79 23.96 19.21 24.50 10.95 6.29 2.29 4.17 -0.72 11.54 8.26 20.19 29.45 15.83 21.13 9.46 4.44 2.90 3.92 1.38 13.90 10.17 11.36 26.60 19.72 21.36 9.38 3.01 4.31 2.85 3.42 13.31 10.96 10.26 22.51 9.82 16.01 . 0.99 4.86 3.24 6.54 14.35 5.78 8.26 18.82 7.03 14.13 . . . . 9.28 . . . . . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Broad Money Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* India* China* 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.50 8.63 1.90 15.73 8.55 16.86 12.73 17.70 0.43 20.04 18.26 14.53 6.10 2.29 16.98 9.82 15.15 11.38 17.33 -10.21 19.31 25.24 14.46 4.16 2.45 11.96 8.95 14.23 9.80 16.38 -8.67 21.02 28.19 14.34 1.98 2.95 10.19 7.89 12.30 10.08 15.77 -6.56 19.59 29.36 10.94 -0.69 3.14 5.41 5.03 6.94 9.94 15.67 17.92 18.05 27.89 7.52 -0.74 2.73 10.35 1.81 7.68 9.36 15.56 34.12 16.72 22.35 6.39 0.17 2.86 11.25 1.59 10.78 9.24 13.66 33.93 15.15 18.36 5.57 0.91 2.75 8.66 2.48 12.98 8.14 14.71 34.67 15.31 19.03 5.16 2.03 2.39 5.44 3.17 12.80 6.99 15.48 31.84 18.28 19.82 5.12 2.68 2.64 -2.58 4.51 12.65 4.68 18.28 26.12 16.00 16.58 . 2.29 2.86 -2.06 5.42 13.33 3.31 19.34 22.92 17.14 15.82 . . . . 9.55 . . . . . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 International Economic Trends Reference Tables Short-Term Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico Korea* Brazil Russia* India* China* 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 2.32 4.21 0.78 4.60 2.82 8.80 5.43 14.08 19.50 17.00 3.23 1.06 2.01 0.56 2.06 1.08 7.94 2.80 10.93 21.13 5.76 1.55 0.57 1.31 0.34 1.33 0.62 5.78 2.40 9.43 12.07 4.02 1.15 0.40 0.87 0.27 0.82 0.30 4.95 2.50 9.08 10.20 3.88 1.72 0.38 0.72 0.23 0.59 0.22 5.05 2.80 9.36 8.77 4.30 1.92 0.39 0.66 0.20 0.60 0.21 5.04 2.87 10.90 6.93 4.67 1.90 0.72 0.69 0.16 0.65 0.42 5.03 2.50 10.62 4.87 5.30 2.48 1.10 0.88 0.14 0.75 0.34 4.99 2.63 10.88 4.23 6.50 2.49 1.18 1.02 0.13 0.75 0.28 4.94 2.73 11.32 4.60 9.58 3.69 1.18 1.10 0.13 0.78 0.28 4.89 3.13 12.51 4.57 8.37 4.61 1.17 1.41 0.12 0.82 0.22 4.88 3.47 12.29 4.70 8.28 4.70 1.15 1.56 . . 0.29 4.84 . . . . . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Long-Term Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area France Germany Italy Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico Korea* Brazil* Russia* 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 3.38 4.05 3.90 3.50 4.66 1.43 4.15 3.90 3.90 5.37 6.25 8.67 2.89 3.89 3.64 3.07 4.54 1.28 3.54 3.55 3.55 4.87 6.25 10.23 3.20 3.96 3.79 3.32 4.46 1.45 3.58 4.05 4.05 5.10 6.25 9.97 3.42 3.77 3.63 3.30 4.19 1.35 3.73 4.16 4.16 5.33 6.00 10.10 3.42 3.65 3.53 3.19 4.06 1.32 3.74 4.10 4.10 5.40 6.00 9.20 3.48 3.69 3.49 3.18 4.03 1.33 4.06 4.32 4.32 5.20 6.00 8.23 3.47 3.60 3.18 2.78 4.03 1.28 3.81 4.07 4.07 4.93 6.00 7.63 3.02 3.44 2.78 2.42 3.90 1.05 3.26 3.46 3.46 4.63 6.00 7.67 3.01 3.74 3.02 2.60 4.19 1.05 3.32 3.67 3.67 4.37 6.00 7.83 3.31 4.32 3.55 3.14 4.78 1.25 3.77 4.18 4.18 4.67 6.00 8.03 3.17 4.51 3.54 3.10 4.81 1.18 3.54 3.95 3.95 4.33 6.00 8.03 2.54 4.30 3.01 2.26 5.49 . . 3.25 3.25 . 6.00 . * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago Canada* Euro Area France Germany Italy Japan* United Kingdom* United States Mexico* Korea* Brazil* Russia* India* China* 08.3 08.4 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 3.43 3.88 3.65 3.27 4.09 2.15 4.81 5.28 5.48 5.57 6.25 14.93 9.01 5.32 1.89 2.30 2.04 1.67 2.88 1.03 3.91 1.56 6.18 4.46 6.23 13.74 10.27 2.57 1.26 0.98 0.68 0.78 1.38 -0.14 3.00 -0.15 6.20 3.93 5.79 13.70 9.31 -0.62 0.06 0.15 -0.25 0.25 0.83 -0.99 2.10 -0.97 5.93 2.76 5.15 12.45 8.94 -1.59 -0.86 -0.36 -0.44 -0.43 0.14 -2.23 1.47 -1.60 5.14 1.99 4.38 11.42 11.74 -1.24 0.76 0.42 0.43 0.34 0.72 -2.02 2.12 1.45 3.98 2.39 4.30 9.21 13.40 0.54 1.61 1.13 1.44 0.80 1.29 -0.86 3.24 2.40 4.78 2.69 4.88 7.22 15.17 2.05 1.42 1.60 1.84 1.03 1.54 -0.73 3.43 1.78 3.93 2.60 5.08 5.93 13.59 2.78 1.83 1.74 1.78 1.18 1.73 -0.99 3.09 1.22 3.67 2.93 4.60 6.21 10.37 3.23 2.24 2.02 1.88 1.58 2.00 -0.29 3.37 1.20 4.26 3.60 5.55 8.13 9.21 4.72 2.59 2.48 1.97 2.16 2.30 -0.53 4.11 2.17 3.48 4.44 6.10 9.52 8.94 5.15 3.39 2.77 2.23 2.50 2.95 -0.43 4.38 3.33 3.28 4.22 6.59 9.50 8.90 5.85 * Copyright , 2011, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Main Economic Indicators (www.oecd.org). Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6 International Economic Trends Canada Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 Consumer Price Index Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 9 4 3 8 2 7 1 6 0 5 -1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Hourly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 8 10 2010 11 2011 12 4 2 4 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -8 -6 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 International Economic Trends Canada Reserve Money Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 15 6 12 5 9 4 6 3 3 2 0 1 10-Year Government Bonds | | | | 90-Day Prime Corporate Paper -3 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 M1B 2007 07 2008 08 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Percent C$/US$ 9.8 1.29 15 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) 1.23 12 4.9 | | | | 1.17 9 0.0 1.11 -4.9 1.05 -9.8 6 3 0.99 0 -14.7 Exchange Rate (left scale) 0.93 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -19.6 2007 12 M2 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 130 15 12 120 9 110 6 100 3 0 90 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Canada GDP Percent change from year ago 12 Nominal 8 4 0 Real -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 International Economic Trends Canada Hourly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 9 Hourly Earnings 6 3 0 Output per Worker -3 -6 -9 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago Percent 6 14 Employment (left scale) 3 11 0 8 Unemployment Rate (right scale) -3 5 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 12 Producer Price Index 8 4 0 | Consumer Price Index -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 4 102 0 92 82 -4 Gross Debt (right scale) -8 72 Budget Balance (left scale) 62 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Canada International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 50 Exports 40 Imports 30 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 130 110 90 70 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 International Economic Trends Canada Reserve Money Percent change from year ago 30 20 10 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 M1B 15 10 5 0 M2 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 10 10-Year Government Bonds 8 6 4 2 90-Day Prime Corporate Paper 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index - Toronto Stock Exchange 2005 = 100 150 120 90 60 30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Euro Area Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 4 2 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -2 -6 -3 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Consumer Price Index 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 10.5 4 10.0 3 9.5 2 9.0 8.5 1 8.0 0 7.5 7.0 -1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Hourly Earnings 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 6 1.0 0.5 5 0.0 4 -0.5 3 -1.0 2 -1.5 1 -2.0 0 -2.5 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 International Economic Trends Euro Area M1 Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 15 6 Weighted Average of 10-Year Government Bonds 5 12 || | 4 9 3 90-Day Deposits 6 2 3 1 0 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 M3 07 2007 2008 08 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Percent Euro/US$ 0.81 12 6.6 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) | | 9 0.76 0.0 6 0.71 -6.6 0.66 -13.2 3 0 Exchange Rate (left scale) -3 0.61 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 Stock Exchange Index - Dow Jones EURO STOXX -19.8 2007 12 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate SM 2005 = 100 Index 2005 = 100 150 120 130 115 110 110 90 105 70 100 50 95 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Euro Area GDP Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nominal 3 0 Real -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 90 85 80 75 70 65 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 International Economic Trends Euro Area Hourly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 6 Hourly Earnings 3 0 Output per Worker -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 12 Unemployment Rate 9 6 3 0 Employment* -3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 8 Producer Price Index 4 Consumer Price Index 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 110 8 Gross Debt (right scale) 4 90 70 0 50 -4 Budget Balance (left scale) -8 30 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Euro Area International Trade - Goods Percent of GDP 20 18 16 14 Exports 12 Imports 10 8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 15 M1 10 5 M3 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 12 9 Weighted Average of 10-Year Government Bonds 6 90-Day Deposits 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 International Economic Trends France Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 4 2 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Consumer Price Index 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 10.5 4 10.0 3 9.5 2 9.0 1 8.5 0 8.0 7.5 -1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Hourly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 10 2010 11 2011 12 2 4 1 0 3 -1 2 -2 -3 1 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends France GDP Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nominal 3 0 Real -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 95 90 85 80 75 70 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 International Economic Trends France Hourly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 6 Hourly Earnings 4 2 0 Output per Worker -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago Percent 14 4 Employment (left scale) 2 12 0 10 8 -2 Unemployment Rate (right scale) 6 -4 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 8 Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index 4 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 6 100 3 90 Gross Debt (right scale) 0 80 -3 70 -6 60 Budget Balance (left scale) -9 94 95 96 97 50 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends France International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 35 30 Exports 25 Imports 20 15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 50 40 30 20 10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index - SBF 250 2005 = 100 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 International Economic Trends Germany Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 2.0 6 4 1.5 2 1.0 0 0.5 -2 0.0 -4 -0.5 -6 -8 -1.0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Consumer Price Index 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 9.0 4 8.5 3 8.0 2 7.5 1 7.0 0 6.5 6.0 -1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Hourly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 4 9 3 6 2 3 1 0 0 10 2010 11 2011 12 -3 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Germany GDP Percent change from year ago 8 Nominal 4 0 Real -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 90 85 80 75 70 65 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 International Economic Trends Germany Hourly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 6 Hourly Earnings 3 0 Output per Worker -3 -6 -9 94 94 95 96 95 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 12 Unemployment Rate 8 4 Employment* 0 -4 94 94 95 96 95 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 9 6 Consumer Price Index 3 | | 0 -3 Producer Price Index -6 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 8 100 Gross Debt (right scale) 4 80 0 60 40 -4 Budget Balance (left scale) -8 20 0 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Germany International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 50 45 Exports 40 35 30 Imports 25 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 10 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 100 80 60 40 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index - CDAX 2005 = 100 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 International Economic Trends Italy Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 4 2 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -2 -6 -3 -8 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 Consumer Price Index Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 5 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 9 4 8 3 7 2 6 1 0 5 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Hourly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 5 10 2010 11 2011 12 1 0 4 -1 3 -2 -3 2 -4 -5 1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Italy GDP Percent change from year ago 10 Nominal 5 0 Real -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 84 80 76 72 68 64 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27 International Economic Trends Italy Hourly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 8 Hourly Earnings 4 0 Output per Worker -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago Percent 4 14 2 12 0 10 8 -2 Employment (left scale) -4 Unemployment Rate (right scale) 6 -6 4 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 8 Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index 4 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 0 140 120 -4 Gross Debt (right scale) -8 100 Budget Balance (left scale) 80 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division 28 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Italy International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 35 30 Exports 25 Imports 20 15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 60 45 30 15 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index - Milan Stock Exchange 2005 = 100 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 29 International Economic Trends Japan Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 6 1 3 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 -3 -9 -4 -5 -12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Consumer Price Index 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 5.5 3 2 5.0 1 4.5 0 4.0 -1 3.5 -2 -3 3.0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Monthly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 6 10 2010 11 2011 12 6 4 5 2 4 0 3 -2 -4 2 -6 1 -8 -10 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 30 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Japan Adjusted Monetary Base Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 20 2.0 10 1.5 0 1.0 -10 0.5 10-Year Government Bonds 3-Month CDs -20 0.0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 M1 2007 07 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Yen/US$ Percent 134.5 5 12.5 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) | | | 4 119.5 3 0.0 2 104.5 -12.5 89.5 -25.0 1 0 -1 Exchange Rate (left scale) 74.5 -2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -37.5 2007 12 M2 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 130 4 120 3 110 2 100 1 90 0 80 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 31 International Economic Trends Japan GDP Percent change from year ago 6 Real 3 0 -3 Nominal -6 -9 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization 2005 = 100 110 100 90 80 70 60 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 32 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Japan Monthly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 8 Monthly Earnings Output per Worker 4 0 -4 -8 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 8 Unemployment Rate 6 4 2 0 -2 Employment* -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 8 Consumer Price Index 4 0 -4 Producer Price Index -8 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 6 3 215 Budget Balance (left scale) 185 0 155 -3 125 -6 95 Gross Debt (right scale) -9 65 35 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 33 International Economic Trends Japan International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 20 16 Exports 12 8 Imports 4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 185 170 155 140 125 110 95 80 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 34 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Japan Adjusted Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 40 30 20 M1 10 0 M2 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 5 4 10-Year Government Bonds 3 2 3-Month CDs 1 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index - Tokyo Stock Exchange 2005 = 100 150 125 100 75 50 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 35 International Economic Trends United Kingdom Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -8 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Consumer Price Index 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 8.0 5 7.5 4 7.0 3 6.5 2 6.0 1 5.5 0 5.0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Weekly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 8 10 2010 11 2011 12 1 0 6 -1 4 -2 2 -3 0 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 36 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United Kingdom Notes and Coins in Circulation Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 9 7 10-Year Government Bonds | | | 6 8 5 7 4 6 3 5 2 3-Month Interbank Loans 4 1 3 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 M2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Pounds/US$ 10 Percent 0.71 30.0 Exchange Rate (left scale) 0.66 22.5 0.61 15.0 0.56 7.5 8 6 4 0.51 0.0 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) 0.46 2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -7.5 2007 12 M4 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 110 20 105 15 100 10 95 5 90 0 85 -5 80 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 37 International Economic Trends United Kingdom GDP Percent change from year ago 12 Nominal 8 4 Real 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 90 85 80 75 70 65 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 38 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United Kingdom Weekly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 8 Weekly Earnings 4 0 Output per Worker -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 12 Unemployment Rate 8 4 0 Employment* -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 15 10 Consumer Price Index 5 0 Producer Price Index -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 16 90 8 70 0 50 Gross Debt (right scale) -8 Budget Balance (left scale) 30 -16 10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 39 International Economic Trends United Kingdom International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 38 34 Imports 30 26 Exports 22 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 60 50 40 30 20 10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 40 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United Kingdom Notes and Coins in Circulation Percent change from year ago 12 10 8 6 4 2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 15 M4 M2 10 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 12 10-Year Government Bonds 9 3-Month Interbank Loans 6 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index - Financial Times Stock Exchange 2005 = 100 150 125 100 75 50 25 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 41 International Economic Trends United States Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 3 4 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 Consumer Price Index Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 6 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 11 10 4 9 8 2 7 6 0 5 -2 4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Hourly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 10 2010 11 2011 12 0 4 -2 3 -4 2 -6 -8 1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 42 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United States Adjusted Monetary Base Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 120 6 Composite of Long-Term Government Bonds 100 5 | | 80 4 60 3 40 3-Month CDs 2 20 1 0 -20 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 MZM Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago TWEX, March 1973 = 100 18 87 Percent 6 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) | | 15 82 12 12 0 9 77 -6 72 -12 6 3 Exchange Rate (left scale) 0 -3 67 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -18 2007 12 M2 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 10 105 8 100 6 95 4 90 2 85 0 80 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 43 International Economic Trends United States GDP Percent change from year ago 9 Nominal 6 3 Real 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 85 80 75 70 65 60 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 44 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United States Hourly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 6 Hourly Earnings 4 2 0 Output per Worker -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 12 9 Unemployment Rate 6 3 0 Employment* -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 12 8 Consumer Price Index 4 0 Producer Price Index -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 110 12 90 6 Budget Balance (left scale) 70 0 50 -6 Gross Debt (right scale) 30 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 45 International Economic Trends United States International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 21 18 Imports 15 12 Exports 9 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 60 50 40 30 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 130 120 110 100 90 80 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 46 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United States Adjusted Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 25 20 MZM 15 10 5 M2 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 10 Composite of Long-Term Government Bonds 8 6 4 3-Month CDs 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index - New York Stock Exchange 2005 = 100 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 47 International Economic Trends Brazil Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 6 12 5 9 4 6 3 3 2 0 1 -3 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 Consumer Price Index Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 8 10 6 9 4 8 2 7 0 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 6 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Monthly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 14 2 12 1 10 0 8 -1 6 -2 10 2010 11 2011 12 -3 4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 48 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Brazil Reserve Money Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 140 18 120 15 100 31-Day T-Bill 80 12 60 9 40 20 6 0 Long Term Rate -20 3 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 M1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Reias/US$ 35 2.5 Percent 18.2 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) 30 2.3 9.1 25 20 2.1 0.0 1.9 -9.1 1.7 -18.2 15 10 5 0 Exchange Rate (left scale) -5 1.5 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -27.3 2007 12 M3 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 160 20 19 150 18 140 17 130 16 120 15 110 14 13 100 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 49 International Economic Trends Brazil GDP Percent change from year ago 30 Nominal 20 10 0 Real -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 90 86 82 78 74 70 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 50 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Brazil Monthly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 60 Monthly Earnings 40 20 0 Output per Worker -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 20 Unemployment Rate 16 12 8 Employment* 4 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 50 40 Producer Price Index 30 20 10 0 Consumer Price Index -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP 2 64 0 62 -2 60 -4 58 Budget Balance (left scale) -6 56 Gross Debt (right scale) -8 54 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 51 International Economic Trends Brazil International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 20 17 14 Imports 11 8 Exports 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 160 140 120 100 80 60 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 52 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Brazil Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 75 M1 60 M3 45 30 15 0 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 75 31-Day T-Bill 60 45 30 15 Long Term Rate 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Stock Exchange Index 2005 = 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 53 International Economic Trends China Real GDP Industrial Production Percent change from year ago, annual data Percent change from year ago 15 25 12 20 9 15 6 10 3 5 0 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 Consumer Price Index Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 10 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 6 8 5 6 4 4 2 3 0 -2 2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Monthly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP, annual data 22 12 20 10 18 8 16 6 14 4 12 2 10 10 2010 11 2011 12 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 54 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends China Adjusted Monetary Base Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 40 5 4 30 3 20 2 10 1 3-Month Bill 0 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 M1 2007 07 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Yen/US$ 35 8.2 Percent 7.7 30 7.8 0.0 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) 25 20 15 7.4 -7.7 7.0 -15.4 10 6.6 -23.1 5 Exchange Rate (left scale) 0 6.2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -30.8 2007 12 M2 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 130 30 125 27 120 24 115 21 110 18 105 15 100 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 55 International Economic Trends China GDP Percent change from year ago 25 Nominal 20 15 10 Real* 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 * Annual data. Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 40 32 24 16 8 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 90 87 84 81 78 75 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 56 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends China Monthly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 35 Monthly Earnings 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent 5.0 Unemployment Rate 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 30 Consumer Price Index 20 10 Producer Price Index* 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 * Annual data. Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 6 3 21 Budget Balance (left scale) 18 0 15 -3 12 -6 9 Gross Debt (right scale) -9 6 3 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 57 International Economic Trends China International Trade - Goods Percent of GDP 20 Exports 16 12 Imports 8 4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP, annual data 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 130 120 110 100 90 80 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 58 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends China Adjusted Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 40 30 M1 20 10 M2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 5 4 3 2 3-Month Bill 1 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Shanghai Composite Index 2005 = 100 500 400 300 200 100 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 59 International Economic Trends India Real GDP Industrial Production Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 15 20 16 12 12 9 8 6 4 3 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 18 10 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 8 15 6 12 4 9 2 6 0 3 -2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Share Price Index Current Account Balance Index 2005 = 100 Percent of GDP, annual data 300 10 2010 11 2011 12 0 250 -1 200 150 -2 100 -3 50 0 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 60 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends India Reserve Money Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 40 40 30 30 Bombay Interbank Money Market 20 20 10 10 0 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 M1 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Rupee/US$ 25 62 12 Percent 42 Foreign/US Infl. Differential (right scale) 20 56 28 15 50 14 44 0 10 5 Exchange Rate (left scale) 0 38 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -14 2007 12 M3 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 125 25 120 22 115 19 110 16 105 13 100 10 95 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 61 International Economic Trends India GDP Percent change from year ago 25 20 Nominal 15 10 5 Real 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 20 16 12 8 4 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 20 15 Consumer Price Index 10 5 0 Producer Price Index -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 0 85 -3 80 -6 75 -9 70 Budget Balance (left scale) -12 65 Gross Debt (right scale) -15 94 95 96 97 98 99 60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division 62 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends India International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 30 25 20 Imports 15 10 Exports 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP, annual data 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 400 300 200 100 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 63 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends India Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 40 30 20 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 30 25 M3 20 15 10 M1 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates - Money Market Percent 35 30 25 20 15 Bombay Interbank Market 10 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 Share Price Index 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 - Indian Stock Exchange Index 2005 = 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 64 International Economic Trends Korea Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 2.0 9 1.5 6 1.0 3 0.5 0 0.0 -3 -0.5 -6 -1.0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Consumer Price Index 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 4.50 6 4.25 5 4.00 4 3.75 3 3.50 2 3.25 3.00 1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Monthly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 16 8 12 6 8 4 4 2 0 0 -4 -2 -8 10 2010 11 2011 12 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 65 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Korea Reserve Money Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 50 7 40 10-Year Government Bonds 6 30 5 20 4 10 3 0 91-Day CDs -10 2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 M1 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Won/US$ 20 Percent 1540 43.2 Exchange Rate (left scale) 15 1390 32.4 1240 21.6 1090 10.8 10 5 0 -5 940 0.0 -10 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) -15 790 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -10.8 2007 12 M3 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 18 110 15 100 12 90 9 80 6 70 3 0 60 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 66 International Economic Trends Korea GDP Percent change from year ago 20 Nominal 15 10 5 0 -5 Real -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 105 100 95 90 85 80 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 67 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Korea Monthly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 25 Monthly Earnings 20 15 10 5 0 Output per Worker -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 9 Unemployment Rate 6 3 0 -3 Employment* -6 -9 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 Consumer Price Index 5 0 -5 Producer Price Index -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP, annual data 6 35 Budget Balance (left scale) 4 31 2 27 0 23 -2 19 Gross Debt (right scale) -4 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 15 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 68 International Economic Trends Korea International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 60 Exports 50 40 30 Imports 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 18 12 6 0 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 110 100 90 80 70 60 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 69 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Korea Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 50 40 M1 30 M2 20 10 0 -10 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 24 91-Day CDs 20 16 12 10-Year Government Bonds 8 4 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 KOSPI Share Price Index - Korean Stock Exchange 2005 = 100 200 160 120 80 40 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 70 International Economic Trends Mexico Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 5 9 4 6 3 3 2 0 1 -3 0 -6 -1 -9 -2 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Consumer Price Index 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 6.0 7 5.5 6 5.0 4.5 5 4.0 4 3.5 3 3.0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Monthly Earnings 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 3 0.5 0.0 2 -0.5 1 -1.0 0 -1.5 -1 -2.0 -2 -2.5 -3 -3.0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 71 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Mexico Reserve Money Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 20 10 90-Day CDs 9 15 8 7 10 6 5 5 Composite of Long-Term Government Bonds 4 0 3 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 M1 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Peso/US$ 20 15 12 Percent 28.4 Exchange Rate (left scale) 14 21.3 13 14.2 12 7.1 15 10 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) 5 0.0 11 0 10 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 -7.1 2007 12 M3 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 20 110 105 15 100 10 95 90 5 85 0 80 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 72 International Economic Trends Mexico GDP Percent change from year ago 40 30 20 Nominal 10 0 Real -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 75 73 71 69 67 65 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 73 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Mexico Hourly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 20 Hourly Earnings 10 0 -10 Output per Worker -20 -30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 01 00 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 8 Unemployment Rate 6 4 2 Employment* 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 01 00 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 70 60 Producer Price Index 50 40 30 20 10 Consumer Price Index 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 01 00 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 6 140 Budget Balance (left scale) 3 120 0 100 -3 80 || -6 60 Gross Debt (right scale) -9 40 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 74 International Economic Trends Mexico International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 40 Imports 30 20 Exports 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 75 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Mexico Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 20 17 14 11 8 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 50 40 M1 30 M3 20 10 0 -10 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 40 Composite of Long-Term Government Bonds 32 24 16 90-Day Treasury CDs 8 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 MSE IPC Share Price Index 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 - Mexican Stock Exchange 2005 = 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 76 International Economic Trends Russia Real GDP Employment Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 4 12 8 2 4 0 0 -4 -2 -8 -12 -4 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 Consumer Price Index Unemployment Rate Percent change from year ago Percent 15 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 9 13 8 11 7 9 6 7 5 5 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 Monthly Earnings Current Account Balance Percent change from year ago Percent of GDP 36 12 10 2010 11 2011 12 10 30 8 24 6 18 4 12 2 6 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division 77 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Russia Reserve Money Interest Rates Percent change from year ago Percent 60 25 50 20 40 3-Month Interbank 30 15 20 10 10 0 | 5 10-Year Government Bonds -10 -20 0 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 M1 Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential Percent change from year ago Roubles/US$ 42 42 12 Percent 42.0 Foreign/US Inflation Differential (right scale) 36 30 38 31.5 34 21.0 30 10.5 26 0.0 24 18 12 6 0 -6 Exchange Rate (left scale) -12 -10.5 22 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 2007 12 M2 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Effective Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Index 2005 = 100 60 135 50 130 40 125 30 20 120 10 115 0 110 -10 -20 105 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 78 International Economic Trends Russia GDP Percent change from year ago 40 Nominal 30 20 10 0 Real -10 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Industrial Production Percent change from year ago 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Capacity Utilization Percent 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 79 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Russia Monthly Earnings and Output per Worker Percent change from year ago 60 Monthly Earnings 40 20 0 Output per Worker -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Labor Force Indicators Percent change from year ago*, Percent 16 Unemployment Rate 12 8 4 0 Employment* -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Inflation Percent change from year ago 125 Consumer Price Index 100 75 Producer Price Index 50 25 0 -25 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Gross Government Debt and Budget Balance Percent of GDP, annual data Percent of GDP 15 60 10 50 Budget Balance (left scale) 5 40 0 30 -5 20 Gross Debt (right scale) -10 10 -15 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 80 International Economic Trends Russia International Trade - Goods and Services Percent of GDP 40 Exports 35 30 Imports 25 20 15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index 2005 = 100 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division 81 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Russia Monetary Base Percent change from year ago 60 45 30 15 0 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 120 100 80 M1 60 40 20 M2 0 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Interest Rates Percent 100 10-Year Government Bonds 80 60 40 20 3-Month Interbank 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Share Price Index 2005 = 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 82 Notes and Sources Notes Euro-Area Data: Euro-area countries are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Spain. Data series are break adjusted and include all euro area countries for the full sample, with these exceptions: Series for interest rates are not break adjusted. Euro-area interest rates prior to December 1998 are calculated on the basis of national government yields weighted by GDP. Starting in 1999, short-term rates are euro interbank offered rates. Long-term rates are calculated on the basis of national government bond yields weighted by the nominal outstanding amounts of government bonds in each maturity band. The euro/dollar exchange rate used in the chart on page 14 is a synthetic rate prior to January 1999. This is constructed by calculating a weighted average of the exchange rates of the euro-area countries, excluding Greece and Luxembourg, against the dollar. The weights are based on 1997 GDP shares. German Data: As a result of reunification, data for all of Germany are now incorporated in the statistical series. The starting periods for unified German data are listed below. Care should be exercised when interpreting the data around these break periods. First quarter 1995: hourly earnings. Capacity Utilization covers the manufacturing sector for Canada, China, France, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the euro area; manufacturing excluding food, beverage, and tobacco for Germany; mining and manufacturing for Italy; installed capacity utilization for Brazil. Consumer Price Index is for all items. The current index is based on goods and services consumed by all individuals for Brazil, Canada, India, Mexico, and Russia; all multi-person households excluding those mainly engaged in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries for Japan; all households except pensioners dependent on state pension and high income households for the United Kingdom; all households except farming and fishing for Korea; all urban households for the United States; all urban and rural residents for China. Data for the euro area, France, Germany, and Italy are based on the harmonized index of consumer prices. Current Account Balance is the sum of merchandise and service exports and income receipts on domestic assets abroad minus the sum of merchandise and service imports and income payments from foreign assets in the domestic economy plus net unilateral transfers. Earnings are based on hourly earnings in manufacturing for Canada, Germany, the United States, and the euro area; hourly earnings in manufacturing excluding construction for France, hourly earnings in industry for Italy; hourly earnings for Mexico; monthly earnings in manufacturing for Brazil, China, Japan, and Russia; monthly earnings for wage earners in manufacturing for Korea, and weekly earnings in manufacturing for the United Kingdom. German real earnings data prior to 2007 are not strictly comparable with the new figures: Before 2007, gross hourly earnings covered full-time wage earners only. Since the first quarter of 2007, the data refer to the index of gross hourly earnings (excluding extra payments) of full-time wage earners and salaried employees. The Exchange Rate for all countries except the United States is expressed as units of local currency per U.S. dollar. For the United States the trade-weighted exchange rate, TWEX, is used. This is a weighted average of the exchange value of the U.S. dollar relative to the major international currencies—the euro, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Swedish kronor. Prior to 1999, the currencies of the euro-area countries (with the exception of Greece) are used instead of the euro. Real Effective Exchange Rate uses normalized unit labor costs in manufacturing. The weighting scheme used to construct the rates, for all except the euro area, is based on disaggregated data for trade among 21 industrial countries in manufactured goods for 2005. For the euro area the weights relate to the trade of the euro area with the other countries. The weights reflect the relative importance of a country’s trading partners in its direct bilateral trade relations and competition in third markets. Normalized unit labor costs in manufacturing are calculated by dividing an index of actual hourly compensation per worker by a five-year moving average index of output per man-hour. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Employment data refer to civilian employment for Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Russia, and the United States; industrial employment for France; and total employment for Brazil, the euro area, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. Foreign Exchange Reserve data are end of period. The dollar value of reserves may fluctuate as a result of changes in reserve holdings and/or changes in the value of the currencies held vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. Government Budget Balance is the difference between general government current receipts and total outlays. Total outlays consist of current expenditures and net capital expenditures. Gross Government Debt incorporates all financial liabilities of the general government sector. The general government sector consolidates the accounts of the central, state, local, and social security sectors. For China and India general government gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payment or payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor at a date or dates in the future. This includes debt liabilities in the form of SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee schemes, and other accounts payable. Cumulative Inflation Differential is the cumulative change in the foreign consumer price index (CPI) over the change in the U.S. CPI, in percentage terms. The base period for the cumulative rate of change is taken to be the first period of the chart. For example, if the base period is 2002:Q1, then the cumulative inflation differential for Japan for 2006:Q3 is as follows: J ⎛ P2006 ⎞ Q3 J ⎜ ⎟ P2002 Q 1 inflationdifferential = 100 • ⎜ US − 1⎟ ⎜ P2006Q 3 ⎟ US ⎜ ⎟ P2002 ⎝ ⎠ Q1 J is the Japanese CPI in the third quarter of 2006. For the U.S. chart where P2006Q3 on page 41, foreign CPI is calculated as the weighted average of the CPIs of countries whose currencies are used in the major currency trade-weighted exchange rate index. Starting in 1999, the euro-area harmonized consumer price index is used for the euro area. Prior to 1999, the price levels for the individual euro area countries (excluding Greece and Luxembourg) are used. The cumulative inflation differential is shown because the theory of purchasing power parity states that exchange rate changes should be systematically positively related to this variable. Industrial Production measures the change in the volume of output in the mining, manufacturing, oil, electricity, gas, and water industries. The Short-Term Interest Rate table on page 6 uses the relevant 3-month interest rate shown in the country pages. The Long-Term Interest Rate table on page 6 uses the government bond rate. The government bond rate is a composite of yields on federal government bonds with maturities of more than 10 years Mexico and the United States; 10-year benchmark bonds for France; 7- to 15-year public sector bonds for Germany; 15- to 20-year government bonds through 1990 and 10-year government bonds starting in 1991 for Italy; and 10-year government bonds for Canada, the euro area, Japan, Korea, Russia, and the United Kingdom. The Reserve Money table on page 5 refers to the adjusted monetary base for Japan and the United States; monetary base for Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Russia; and M0 for the United Kingdom. Reserve Money is currency in circulation, deposits of the deposit money banks, and demand deposits of other residents (with the exception of the central government) with the monetary authority. Adjusted Monetary Base Japan: currency in circulation and current deposits at the Bank of Japan. United States: the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. Notes and Coins in Circulation United Kingdom: After reforming the rules governing bank reserves, the Bank of England discontinued its M0 series in May 2006 because the data would not be comparable to previous data. IET now presents a related series, “Notes and Coins in Circulation,” in place of M0. The Bank of England 83 International Economic Trends directs interested parties to “Publication of narrow money data: the implication of money market reform” in its Autumn 2005 Quarterly Bulletin (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/quarterlybulletin/qb050304.pdf). M1 Japan: cash, currency in circulation, and deposit money. Euro area: currency in circulation and overnight deposits. Brazil: notes and coins held by public, and demand deposits. China: currency in circulation, and demand deposits. India: currency in circulation and demand deposits at monetary institutions. Korea: currency in circulation and demand deposits at monetary institutions. Mexico: notes, coins, cheque accounts held by public, denominated in Pesos or in foreign currency, and interest accounts in Pesos. Russia: money outside bank and demand deposits in the banking system. M1B Canada: currency outside banks, chartered bank checkable deposits, less inter-bank checkable deposits. MZM United States: currency in circulation, travelers’ checks, total publicly-held checkable deposits minus cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float, savings deposits, shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts, and institutional money market mutual funds. M2 Canada: currency outside banks, chartered bank demand and notice deposits, chartered bank personal term deposits, adjustments to M2 (continuity adjustments and inter-bank demand and notice deposits). United Kingdom: currency in circulation and sterling retail deposits with the U.K. banks and building societies. United States: MZM less institutional money market mutual funds plus small denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits. Brazil: M1 plus open market funds, short-term fixed-yield funds, short-term financial investment funds, remunerated special deposits and bonds of the federal government, states, and municipalities, held by the non-financial public entities. China: M1 plus quasi-money (time deposits and savings deposits and other deposits). Korea: M1 plus time and savings deposits and residents’ deposits in foreign currency at deposit money banks. Russia: M1 plus quasi-money (bank system deposits that cannot be directly used for making payments and are less liquid than M1). This includes time deposits in national currency and all deposits in foreign currency. M2 + CDs Japan: M1 plus private deposits, public deposits less demand deposits, and certificates of deposit. M3 Euro area: M1 plus deposits with a maturity up to 2 years, deposits redeemable at notice up to 3 months, repurchase agreements, money market funds, and debt securities up to 2 years. India: M1 plus post office savings, bank deposits and residents’ deposits in foreign currency at deposit money banks, and other time deposits with banks. Mexico: M1 plus residents’ possessions of other bank deposits, securities issued by the Federal Government, securities issued by private entities and the retirement saving funds, plus bank deposits and Federal Government securities in the hand of non-residents. M4 United Kingdom: M2 plus wholesale deposits with the U.K. banks and building societies. Output Per Worker is the ratio of real GDP to employment. Producer Price Index covers manufacturing for Canada and the United Kingdom; and total industry for Japan and the United States. Data for the euro area, France, Germany, and Italy are based on the harmonized index of total industry excluding construction. Retail Sales are based on a volume index. Stock Exchange Index refers to all share prices except for the United Kingdom, which excludes financial firms. 84 Notes and Sources Unemployment Rate is the standardized unemployment rate. It is the percentage of the civilian labor force that is unemployed. The unemployed are all persons of working age who are without work, readily available for work, and actively seeking work. The standardized rate may differ from the national unemployment rate calculations. Sources Abbreviations Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (BOG) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA) Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Economic Outlook (OECD1) Main Economic Indicators (OECD2) National Accounts Quarterly (OECD3) Canada Bank of Canada: M1B and M2. BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, real effective exchange rate, and reserve money. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: capacity utilization, consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, hourly earnings, industrial production, interest rates, producer price index, retail sales, stock exchange index, and unemployment rate. Statistics Canada: employment. Euro Area European Central Bank: current account balance and employment . Eurostat: capacity utilization, consumer price index, GDP, interest rates, merchandise trade, producer price index, and retail sales. Haver Analytics: synthetic euro exchange rate. IMF: real effective exchange rate. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: hourly earnings, industrial production, M1, M3, stock exchange index, and unemployment. France BOG: exchange rate. Eurostat: capacity utilization, consumer price index, and producer price index. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, and real effective exchange rate. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques: employment. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: current account balance, GDP, hourly earnings, industrial production, retail sales, interest rates, stock exchange index, and unemployment. Germany BOG: exchange rate. Bundesanstalt Fur Arbeit: employment. Eurostat: capacity utilization, consumer price index, and producer price index. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, and real effective exchange rate. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: current account balance, GDP, hourly earnings, industrial production, M1, M3, retail sales, interest rates, stock exchange index, and unemployment. Italy BOG: exchange rate. Eurostat: capacity utilization, consumer price index, and producer price index. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, and real effective exchange rate. Instituto Nazionale di Statistica: employment. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: current account balance, GDP, hourly earnings, industrial production, long-term interest rates, retail sales, stock exchange index, and unemployment. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Notes and Sources Japan Bank of Japan: adjusted monetary base and long-term interest rate. BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, and real effective exchange rate. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: capacity utilization, consumer price index, current account balance, employment, GDP, hourly earnings, industrial production, M1, M2, producer price index, retail sales, short-term interest rate, stock exchange index, and unemployment. United Kingdom BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, and real effective exchange rate. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: capacity utilization, consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, industrial production, interest rates, M2, M4, producer price index, retail sales, stock exchange index, unemployment, and weekly earnings. U.K. Office for National Statistics: employment and Notes and Coins in Circulation. United States BOG: capacity utilization, exchange rate, industrial production index, M2, and interest rates. BEA: GDP, current account balance, merchandise and service trade, and retail sales. BLS: employment, consumer price index, and producer price index. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: adjusted monetary base and MZM. IMF: foreign exchange reserves and real effective exchange rate. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: hourly earnings, stock exchange index, and unemployment. Brazil Banco Central Do Brazil: capacity utilization, employment, gross government debt, and long-term interest rate. BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, monetary base, producer price index, and short-term interest rate. OECD1: budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, industrial production, M1, M3, monthly earnings, real effective exchange rate, retail sales, stock exchange index, and unemployment. International Economic Trends India IMF: foreign exchange reserves, reserve money, and short-term interest rate. OECD1: budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, exchange rate, GDP, industrial production, M1, M3, merchandise trade, producer price index, real effective exchange rate, and stock exchange index. WEO: current account as a percentage of GDP and government debt. Korea BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, merchandise and service trade, monthly earnings, and reserve money. OECD1: gross government debt and budget balance. OECD2: capacity utilization, consumer price index, current account, employment, GDP, industrial production, interest rates, M1, M2, producer price index, real effective exchange rate, retail sales, stock exchange index, and unemployment. Mexico BOG: exchange rate. IMF: budget balance, foreign exchange reserves, government debt, and merchandise and service trade. OECD2: capacity utilization, consumer price index, current account, employment, GDP, hourly earnings, industrial production, interest rates, M1, M3, monetary base, producer price index, real effective exchange rate, retail sales, stock exchange index, and unemployment. Russia BOG: exchange rate. Central Bank of Russia: government debt. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, monetary base, and merchandise and service trade. OECD1: budget balance. OECD2: capacity utilization, consumer price index, current account, employment, GDP, industrial production, interest rates, M1, M2, monthly earnings, producer price index, retail sales, stock exchange index, and unemployment. China IMF: foreign exchange reserves and reserve money. OECD1: budget balance. OECD2: capacity utilization, consumer price index, exchange rate, industrial production, M1, M2, merchandise trade, monthly earnings, nominal GDP, producer price index, real effective exchange rate, retail sales, short-term interest rate, stock exchange index, and unemployment. WEO: current account as a percentage of GDP, government debt, and real GDP. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 85