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Annual Edition InternationalEconomicTrends July 2010 Why Aren’t the Chinese Buying More American Goods? —Yi Wen 1 For example, a bipartisan group of 14 U.S. senators announced new legislation in March 2010 to crack down on unfair currency manipulation by China (see http://schumer.senate.gov/record.cfm?id=323135&). 2 Theory predicts that when people face large uninsured risks and are subject to borrowing constraints, not only do they save excessively but their marginal propensity to save increases with income growth despite low deposit rates. See Wen, Yi. “Saving and Growth under Borrowing Constraints: Explaining the ‘High Saving Rate’ Puzzle.” Working Paper No. 2009-045B, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised October 2009; http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-045.pdf. 3 Ironically, if Chinese savers were free to put their money anywhere in the world, there could be a large outflow of renminbi into other currencies and a resulting depreciation rather than appreciation. Consumption and Saving Trend C/Y 0.6 G/Y (I+NX)/Y 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 82 0 0 19 C dents by selling them Chinese government bonds and using the proceeds to purchase foreign (especially U.S.) bonds.3 In some sense, the Chinese government is functioning like a bank, enabling savers to invest. So the effective owner of the foreign reserves in China is not the government but the private sector. The important point is that both the Chinese trade surplus with the United States and the amassed foreign reserves result from the savings decisions of Chinese consumers. If consumers want to spend more on American goods, they can sell their government bonds and thus siphon some U.S. dollars from the Chinese government’s foreign reserves. This analysis suggests that lack of financial development in China—not the fixed exchange rate—has created the huge trade imbalance between China and the rest of the world. Hence, only financial development within China will ultimately resolve it. 19 8 hina’s annual trade balance has risen from a small deficit (–$1.9 billion) in 1980 to a $400 billion surplus in 2009. The bulk of the surplus results from trade with the United States. During the same period, China’s total foreign reserves (mostly U.S. dollars) increased from $2.5 billion to around $2.4 trillion. Trade would be more balanced if the Chinese bought more American goods. But why aren’t they doing so? Many people believe that the steady increase in America’s trade deficit with China has occurred because Chinese currency is significantly undervalued. Namely, Chinese goods are too cheap relative to American goods. Hence, Americans can buy many Chinese goods while the Chinese cannot afford American goods. Indeed, many U.S. politicians have alleged that the Chinese government has manipulated its currency deliberately to achieve a trade surplus and excessive foreign reserves.1 Why would the Chinese government do that? One popular argument is that an undervalued home currency promotes employment. However, selling goods at significantly low prices to the United States and holding American dollars as a store of value is equivalent to lending goods to the United States in return for IOUs that pay little or negative interest (due to inflation). Chinese workers would be better off spending their dollars instead of saving them. Why would the Chinese tighten their belts so much and lend to American consumers when they are still struggling with very low per capita incomes themselves? The standard economic theory of precautionary saving provides one plausible explanation: Even though China has had 30 years of impressive economic growth since its economic reform and globalization, its financial sector reform has not caught up with its economic growth. The lack of social safety nets and the country’s severely underdeveloped insurance and financial markets have forced the Chinese to save excessively as insurance against idiosyncratic uncertainty, such as income shocks, unemployment, accidents, and other unexpected spending needs.2 In fact, during the 30 years of rapid economic growth, China’s private consumption-to-national income ratio (C/Y) has fallen from roughly 50 percent to 35 percent while the share of government spending (G/Y) has remained roughly constant at about 14 percent (see chart). Hence, Chinese consumers have significantly reduced their propensity to consume despite rapidly rising incomes. As a result, China’s national saving rate (investment plus net exports) ([I+NX]/Y) has increased steadily despite low interest rates. Chinese workers cannot invest their savings of foreign currencies directly in foreign assets because China has capital controls. The government meets the savings demands of its domestic resi- Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page Page 3 12 14 16 18 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 Reference Tables Australia Canada Chile China Denmark Euro Area Austria Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Spain Indonesia Israel 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 Japan Korea Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Norway Philippines Singapore South Africa Sweden Switzerland Thailand Turkey United Kingdom United States Venezuela Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain annual data that were current through June 2010. 2. Percent change refers to the simple percent change from the previous year. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, International Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsIET@stls.frb.org International Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; the annual edition is published in July. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/aiet to download the annual issue of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please call (314) 444-8590. International Economic Trends Reference Tables Narrow Money Percent change from year ago 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia 13.6 6.3 9.9 9.5 21.4 -10.6 8.0 5.0 8.2 13.2 11.9 4.9 3.7 Canada 10.1 3.9 7.8 12.4 12.2 6.5 5.9 9.0 6.5 10.2 6.7 12.8 13.2 Chile 20.0 -8.3 20.2 2.7 14.0 16.5 17.6 24.1 11.2 13.2 18.1 6.7 23.4 China 26.3 11.2 21.4 16.1 13.1 14.9 18.7 13.9 11.6 17.9 21.0 9.0 32.4 Denmark 7.2 8.6 7.0 0.5 3.0 6.8 8.1 9.2 18.4 12.5 8.6 4.6 4.3 Euro Area 6.4 9.7 10.5 5.7 9.3 9.7 9.1 8.1 18.1 7.9 3.8 3.4 13.0 Indonesia 32.8 25.3 28.8 37.7 5.7 7.4 17.0 15.0 10.2 28.1 29.7 1.5 12.9 Israel 13.9 11.7 14.3 7.5 15.4 4.9 7.7 17.9 23.8 8.3 17.4 17.4 52.3 Japan 9.9 6.9 12.9 4.6 14.6 25.5 3.5 4.3 5.3 0.0 0.6 -1.0 1.3 Korea 17.4 -5.7 30.4 23.5 18.7 23.2 6.2 8.4 8.6 0.5 -6.7 -0.7 17.0 Malaysia 11.8 -29.7 28.4 7.7 -1.3 11.8 16.0 11.2 8.7 12.2 18.7 9.1 . Mexico 32.8 19.2 26.2 15.3 20.5 12.6 11.9 10.4 12.9 14.0 10.8 9.8 8.8 New Zealand 7.2 13.8 15.5 7.1 19.8 6.4 9.0 3.2 -1.8 3.7 1.2 3.0 1.3 Norway 8.8 3.7 22.8 8.2 3.8 3.9 7.0 10.4 17.0 23.0 11.9 -3.2 1.0 Philippines 16.4 9.0 40.0 -1.8 1.3 21.6 8.6 9.1 9.2 24.7 15.2 20.9 14.1 Singapore 1.7 -1.0 14.2 6.9 8.5 -0.7 8.1 14.0 4.4 13.4 22.4 18.4 23.5 16.9 22.3 20.8 1.9 15.0 13.5 8.2 8.7 19.3 20.4 21.9 2.1 6.9 -25.8 3.8 17.0 -5.0 9.6 -0.1 2.2 0.1 1.7 1.1 1.8 178.7 . 8.7 5.3 6.4 -2.0 8.6 9.1 20.9 -4.9 5.1 -4.1 -2.6 21.2 20.7 Thailand -2.0 -2.6 39.2 -9.5 11.5 15.6 14.3 10.6 7.3 2.4 9.7 4.1 12.8 Turkey 76.3 62.1 82.7 61.3 50.6 39.2 45.4 25.1 46.3 15.8 6.4 12.0 20.9 United Kingdom 5.3 6.1 8.4 6.9 8.9 8.4 10.6 8.7 9.1 8.0 7.5 5.1 5.3 United States 7.4 11.6 12.4 8.1 15.7 12.8 7.3 3.8 2.1 4.3 9.1 14.0 9.5 83.7 6.6 23.4 31.5 13.2 19.7 74.7 46.2 54.7 83.3 24.6 26.5 25.0 South Africa Sweden* Switzerland Venezuela * See page 54 for more information about the increase in Swedish reserve money. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 International Economic Trends Reference Tables Broad Money Percent change from year ago 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia 6.6 7.9 9.4 4.9 13.7 6.9 11.7 8.9 8.2 13.0 22.7 14.7 5.8 Canada -1.2 1.0 5.4 5.7 8.9 5.0 4.5 4.9 4.9 8.3 7.5 13.0 7.0 Chile 23.0 7.5 11.6 9.4 5.8 8.4 -2.4 18.7 21.5 17.5 20.5 18.6 -0.9 China 23.1 14.7 14.1 12.1 15.0 18.3 19.2 14.9 16.7 22.1 16.7 17.8 27.6 Denmark 8.3 5.6 3.7 -0.6 4.1 3.6 18.3 12.8 -1.3 13.0 12.8 15.6 6.7 Euro Area 4.3 4.8 5.3 4.3 10.9 6.6 6.4 6.3 8.5 9.4 11.4 8.4 -0.5 Indonesia 23.4 72.5 34.2 15.6 13.0 4.7 8.1 8.2 16.3 14.9 19.3 14.9 13.0 Israel 18.7 17.5 20.1 11.4 9.9 7.0 -0.1 0.8 6.2 5.6 5.8 4.5 11.1 Japan 3.8 4.4 2.7 2.0 3.4 2.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 0.7 2.1 1.8 3.2 Korea 19.7 23.7 5.1 5.2 8.1 14.0 3.0 6.3 7.0 12.5 10.8 12.0 9.9 Malaysia 17.4 9.2 9.0 10.6 11.4 2.4 6.4 11.9 5.8 11.3 8.5 11.9 . Mexico 25.5 26.8 19.5 13.9 16.3 10.2 12.6 12.0 15.9 14.2 10.3 17.3 6.5 New Zealand 4.2 1.1 6.9 6.5 11.4 12.5 5.9 6.3 7.3 16.6 7.4 6.5 -1.1 Norway 2.5 4.5 10.8 10.2 8.7 7.8 2.4 7.5 11.7 13.0 17.5 3.8 2.3 Philippines 20.5 8.0 19.3 4.8 17.9 9.6 4.2 10.0 9.8 22.1 10.7 15.4 7.6 Singapore 13.0 39.2 7.4 -4.0 5.2 -0.2 8.0 4.3 6.7 21.0 11.2 10.3 7.8 South Africa 18.8 12.3 13.5 6.2 14.6 16.3 15.9 11.6 17.7 20.1 20.7 11.8 1.7 Sweden 1.2 -4.6 12.8 6.1 0.2 8.4 3.6 4.0 12.7 15.0 18.5 7.6 -2.7 Switzerland 3.4 0.4 1.0 -1.1 5.5 4.2 7.3 1.7 4.9 2.6 2.2 2.2 6.4 Thailand 43.7 9.4 1.8 4.0 5.8 1.3 6.2 5.8 6.1 8.2 6.3 9.2 6.6 Turkey 91.5 109.2 95.0 46.8 50.7 32.0 31.4 34.2 40.1 20.7 22.0 27.1 11.0 United Kingdom 5.8 8.4 4.0 8.4 6.7 7.0 7.2 8.7 12.6 12.8 11.9 15.7 5.7 United States 5.0 7.2 7.4 6.0 8.7 7.6 6.9 4.7 4.2 5.3 6.3 7.1 7.8 63.0 18.6 20.0 27.8 4.2 15.3 57.5 50.4 52.7 69.3 27.8 26.8 21.6 Venezuela Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Reference Tables Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia 4.0 5.1 4.2 3.3 2.5 3.9 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.6 4.7 2.4 1.3 Austria** 2.2 3.9 3.7 3.1 0.8 1.6 0.9 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.4 1.8 -3.4 Canada 4.2 4.1 5.5 5.2 1.8 2.9 1.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.5 0.4 -2.6 Chile 6.6 3.3 -0.4 4.5 3.5 2.2 4.0 6.0 5.6 4.6 4.6 3.7 -1.5 China 9.3 7.8 7.6 8.4 8.3 9.1 10.0 10.1 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 8.7 Denmark** 3.2 2.2 2.6 3.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 2.3 2.4 3.4 1.7 -0.9 -4.9 Euro Area 2.6 2.7 2.9 4.0 1.9 0.9 0.8 2.0 1.8 3.1 2.7 0.5 -4.0 Finland 6.0 4.7 4.0 5.3 2.0 1.8 2.2 4.1 3.1 4.5 4.8 1.3 -7.9 France 2.2 3.5 3.2 4.1 1.8 1.1 1.1 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.3 0.3 -2.2 Germany** 1.9 1.8 1.9 3.5 1.4 0.0 -0.2 0.7 0.9 3.4 2.6 1.0 -4.9 Greece** 3.6 3.4 3.4 4.5 4.2 3.4 5.9 4.6 2.2 4.5 4.5 2.0 -2.0 Indonesia 4.7 -13.1 0.8 5.4 3.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.0 4.5 Ireland** 11.5 8.4 10.7 9.4 5.8 6.5 4.4 4.6 6.2 5.4 6.0 -3.0 -7.1 Israel 2.9 4.3 3.3 9.2 -0.0 -0.7 1.5 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.0 0.7 Italy 1.9 1.3 1.4 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 1.4 0.8 2.1 1.4 -1.3 -5.1 Japan 1.5 -2.2 -0.0 2.8 0.2 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 -1.2 -5.2 Korea 5.8 -5.7 10.7 8.8 4.0 7.2 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.2 Malaysia 7.3 -7.4 6.1 8.7 0.5 5.4 5.8 6.8 5.3 5.8 6.2 4.6 -1.7 Mexico** 7.2 5.0 3.6 6.0 -0.9 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.2 4.9 3.3 1.5 -6.6 Netherlands 4.3 3.9 4.7 3.9 1.9 0.1 0.3 2.2 2.0 3.4 3.6 2.0 -4.0 New Zealand 3.0 0.6 4.6 3.7 2.4 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.1 2.4 3.2 -0.6 -0.7 Norway 5.2 1.4 1.0 3.5 1.8 1.4 0.8 3.3 1.7 1.7 2.7 1.7 -1.5 Philippines 5.2 -0.6 3.4 6.0 1.8 4.4 4.9 6.4 5.0 5.4 7.0 3.8 0.9 Singapore 8.3 -1.4 7.2 10.1 -2.4 4.2 3.8 9.2 7.6 8.7 8.2 1.4 -2.0 South Africa 2.6 0.5 2.4 4.2 2.7 3.7 2.9 4.6 5.3 5.6 5.5 3.7 -1.8 Spain** 3.9 4.5 4.7 5.0 3.6 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.6 0.9 -3.6 Sweden** 2.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 1.4 2.5 2.5 3.7 3.1 4.6 3.5 -0.6 -5.1 Switzerland 2.1 2.6 1.3 3.6 1.2 0.4 -0.2 2.5 2.6 3.6 3.6 1.8 -1.5 Thailand -1.4 -10.5 4.4 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.1 6.3 4.6 5.1 4.9 2.5 -2.3 Turkey** 7.5 3.1 -3.4 6.8 -5.7 6.2 5.3 9.4 8.4 6.9 4.7 0.7 -4.9 United Kingdom 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.9 2.5 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.2 2.9 2.6 0.5 -4.9 United States 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.1 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.1 0.4 -2.4 Venezuela* 6.3 0.4 -6.1 3.7 3.4 -8.7 -8.2 18.6 10.3 9.8 8.2 4.9 -3.1 * Please refer to the individual country pages for information regarding breaks in this series. ** Copyright , 2010, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook (www.oecd.org). Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 International Economic Trends Reference Tables Gross Domestic Product Deflator Percent change from year ago 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia 1.2 0.4 1.2 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.5 4.7 5.0 4.0 6.8 0.4 Austria** -0.2 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.9 Canada 1.2 -0.4 1.7 4.1 1.1 1.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.6 3.2 4.0 -2.0 Chile 4.3 1.9 2.0 4.6 3.6 4.2 6.1 7.5 7.6 12.4 5.5 0.3 4.2 China 1.5 -0.9 -1.3 2.1 2.0 0.6 2.6 6.9 3.8 3.6 7.4 11.4 -1.8 Denmark** 2.0 1.2 1.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.6 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.9 3.6 0.4 Euro Area -0.3 1.0 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.1 Finland 2.0 3.8 0.8 2.7 3.0 1.3 -0.7 0.7 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.4 0.9 France 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 0.9 Germany** 0.3 0.6 0.3 -0.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 Greece** 6.8 5.2 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.5 1.3 Indonesia 12.6 75.3 14.2 20.0 14.3 5.9 5.5 8.6 14.3 14.1 11.3 18.2 8.4 Ireland** 3.8 6.6 4.1 5.9 5.5 4.6 2.8 2.0 2.4 3.5 1.2 -1.2 -3.2 Israel 8.1 7.1 6.3 1.6 1.8 4.1 -0.4 -0.0 0.8 2.4 0.3 1.6 4.9 Italy 2.5 2.7 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.1 Japan* 0.6 -0.0 -1.3 -1.7 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.1 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 Korea 3.8 5.0 -1.1 1.0 3.9 3.2 3.5 3.1 0.6 -0.1 2.0 2.9 3.3 Malaysia 3.5 8.5 0.0 9.0 -1.6 3.1 3.3 6.0 4.6 3.9 4.9 10.3 -7.1 Mexico** 17.2 15.3 15.4 12.7 6.7 7.7 8.5 9.1 4.6 6.9 4.4 6.7 4.3 Netherlands 2.6 1.9 1.8 4.1 5.1 3.8 2.2 0.7 2.4 1.8 1.6 2.7 -0.3 New Zealand 0.7 0.8 0.4 2.5 4.1 1.3 1.6 4.0 2.2 2.4 4.0 3.7 1.9 Norway 3.1 0.6 7.7 15.3 2.1 -1.7 3.1 5.9 9.6 9.2 2.4 10.3 -4.2 Philippines 6.0 11.1 7.7 4.9 8.1 3.5 4.5 6.0 6.6 5.2 3.0 7.5 2.4 Singapore 0.7 -1.8 -5.3 3.7 -1.6 -1.0 -1.1 4.4 1.2 1.8 7.0 1.6 -1.3 South Africa 8.1 7.7 7.1 8.8 7.7 10.5 4.8 5.9 5.5 8.0 8.2 9.2 8.0 Spain** 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.1 3.3 2.5 0.2 Sweden** 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.4 2.2 -0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 2.0 2.5 2.2 0.3 Thailand 4.1 9.2 -4.0 1.3 2.1 0.8 1.3 3.1 4.5 5.3 3.6 3.8 2.0 Turkey** 81.5 75.7 54.2 49.2 52.9 37.4 23.3 12.4 7.1 9.3 6.2 12.0 5.5 United Kingdom 2.8 2.2 2.1 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 1.3 United States 1.8 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.1 1.2 34.0 18.8 26.3 29.5 8.0 32.8 35.6 33.6 29.6 18.0 14.1 31.0 8.2 Switzerland Venezuela* * Please refer to the individual country pages for information regarding breaks in these series. ** Copyright , 2010, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook (www.oecd.org). Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Reference Tables Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia 0.3 0.9 1.5 4.5 4.4 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.5 2.3 4.3 1.8 Austria 1.2 0.8 0.5 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.2 3.2 0.4 Canada 1.6 1.0 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 0.3 Chile 6.1 5.1 3.3 3.8 3.6 2.5 2.8 1.1 3.1 3.4 4.4 8.7 1.5 China 2.8 -0.9 -1.4 0.3 0.7 -0.8 1.2 3.9 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7 Denmark 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.7 3.4 1.3 Euro Area 1.7 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 0.3 Finland 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 3.9 1.6 France 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 3.2 0.1 Germany 1.5 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.8 0.2 Greece 5.4 4.5 2.1 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 4.2 1.3 Indonesia 6.2 58.4 20.5 3.7 11.5 11.9 6.6 6.2 10.5 13.1 6.3 10.1 4.6 Ireland 1.3 2.1 2.5 5.3 4.0 4.7 4.0 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 -1.7 Israel 9.0 5.4 5.2 1.1 1.1 5.7 0.7 -0.4 1.3 2.1 0.5 4.6 3.3 Italy 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 3.5 0.8 Japan 1.8 0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.2 -0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.1 1.4 -1.4 Korea 4.4 7.5 0.8 2.3 4.0 2.8 3.5 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 Malaysia 2.7 5.3 2.7 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.0 1.5 3.0 3.6 2.0 5.4 0.6 20.6 15.9 16.6 9.5 6.4 5.0 4.5 4.7 4.0 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.3 Netherlands 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 5.1 3.9 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.0 New Zealand 1.2 1.3 -0.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.4 2.4 4.0 2.1 Norway 2.6 2.3 2.3 3.1 3.0 1.3 2.5 0.5 1.5 2.3 0.7 3.8 2.2 Philippines 5.9 9.7 6.6 -0.1 6.8 3.0 3.6 5.9 7.6 6.3 2.8 9.3 3.3 Singapore 2.0 -0.3 0.0 1.4 1.0 -0.4 0.5 1.7 0.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 0.2 South Africa 8.6 6.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 9.2 5.9 1.4 3.4 4.6 7.1 11.5 7.1 Spain 1.9 1.8 2.2 3.5 2.8 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 4.1 -0.3 Sweden 0.7 -0.3 0.5 0.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 3.4 -0.3 Switzerland 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 2.4 -0.5 Thailand 5.6 8.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.7 1.8 2.8 4.5 4.6 2.2 5.5 -0.8 85.6 84.6 64.9 54.9 54.4 45.0 21.6 8.6 8.2 9.6 8.8 10.4 6.3 United Kingdom 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.6 2.2 United States 2.3 1.5 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3 50.0 35.8 23.6 16.2 12.5 22.4 31.1 21.7 16.0 13.7 18.7 31.4 28.6 Mexico Turkey Venezuela Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 International Economic Trends Reference Tables Current Account Balance Percent of nominal GDP 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia -2.8 -4.6 -5.2 -3.8 -2.0 -3.6 -5.2 -6.0 -5.7 -5.2 -6.1 -4.4 -4.1 Austria* -2.5 -1.7 -1.7 -0.7 -0.8 2.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.6 3.3 2.3 Canada -1.3 -1.2 0.3 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -2.7 Chile -4.4 -4.9 0.1 -1.2 -1.6 -0.9 -1.1 2.2 1.2 4.9 4.5 -1.5 2.6 China 3.9 3.1 1.9 1.7 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.6 7.2 9.5 11.0 9.4 . Denmark* 0.4 -0.9 1.9 1.6 2.6 2.9 3.4 2.3 4.3 3.0 1.5 2.2 4.0 Finland 5.6 5.6 6.3 8.1 8.6 8.9 5.2 6.5 3.6 4.6 4.2 3.0 1.4 France 2.7 2.6 3.1 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -2.3 -2.1 Germany* -0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.8 0.0 2.0 1.9 4.6 5.1 6.4 7.7 6.7 5.0 Greece* -3.9 -2.8 -5.6 -7.8 -7.3 -6.8 -6.5 -5.8 -7.3 -11.3 -14.4 -14.6 -11.2 Indonesia -0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 2.4 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -0.0 -0.6 -3.5 -3.6 -5.3 -5.2 -2.9 -3.0 -0.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6 -1.1 0.5 1.7 3.1 5.1 2.9 0.7 3.7 Italy 2.8 1.9 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 -1.7 -2.6 -2.4 -3.4 -3.3 Japan 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.9 3.3 2.8 Korea -1.7 8.1 4.5 2.0 1.2 0.7 1.6 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.6 -0.6 4.0 Malaysia -5.9 13.2 15.9 9.0 7.9 8.0 12.1 11.9 14.5 16.3 15.7 17.5 16.7 Mexico* -1.8 -3.5 -2.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -1.5 -0.6 6.5 3.2 3.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 5.5 7.5 7.3 9.3 8.7 4.8 5.4 -6.3 -3.8 -6.1 -5.1 -2.8 -3.9 -4.2 -6.2 -8.3 -8.4 -8.0 -8.6 -3.0 6.3 0.0 5.6 15.0 16.1 12.6 12.3 12.7 16.3 17.3 14.1 18.6 13.8 Philippines -5.3 2.4 -3.8 -3.0 -2.4 -0.4 0.4 1.9 2.0 4.5 4.9 2.2 5.3 Singapore 15.5 22.2 17.4 11.6 13.1 13.1 23.7 18.1 22.7 25.2 22.9 19.2 19.1 South Africa -1.5 -1.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.8 -1.1 -3.1 -3.5 -5.3 -7.2 -7.3 -3.9 Spain* -0.1 -1.2 -2.9 -4.0 -3.9 -3.3 -3.5 -5.3 -7.4 -9.0 -10.0 -9.7 -5.4 Sweden* 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.7 4.0 7.1 6.6 6.8 7.8 8.2 9.3 7.2 Switzerland 9.3 9.2 10.8 12.0 8.2 8.8 13.3 13.4 14.0 15.2 9.0 2.0 8.3 Thailand -2.0 12.7 10.2 7.6 4.4 3.7 3.4 1.7 -4.3 1.1 5.9 0.6 7.7 Turkey* -1.1 0.8 -0.4 -3.7 2.1 -0.4 -2.8 -3.8 -4.6 -6.1 -5.9 -5.5 -2.2 United Kingdom -0.1 -0.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.1 -1.7 -1.6 -2.1 -2.6 -3.3 -2.7 -1.5 -1.3 United States -1.7 -2.4 -3.2 -4.2 -3.9 -4.3 -4.7 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.2 -4.9 -2.9 4.4 -4.9 2.2 10.3 1.6 8.3 14.4 14.1 17.6 14.7 8.1 12.2 2.6 Ireland* Israel Netherlands New Zealand* Norway* Venezuela * Copyright , 2010, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook (www.oecd.org). Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Reference Tables Government Budget Balance Percent of nominal GDP 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia* -0.5 1.3 1.5 0.5 -0.5 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 0.3 -3.9 Austria* -2.0 -2.5 -2.4 -1.9 -0.2 -0.9 -1.6 -4.5 -1.8 -1.6 -0.5 -0.5 -3.4 Canada* 0.2 0.1 1.6 2.9 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.1 -5.1 Chile 1.8 0.4 -1.3 0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.2 2.6 5.0 8.1 8.6 4.1 -4.9 China -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.5 -2.3 -2.6 -2.2 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.6 -0.4 . Denmark* -0.6 -0.1 1.3 2.2 1.2 0.3 -0.1 1.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 3.4 -2.8 Finland* -1.4 1.5 1.6 6.8 5.0 4.0 2.3 2.1 2.5 3.9 5.2 4.1 -2.4 France* -3.3 -2.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.6 -3.2 -4.1 -3.6 -3.0 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -7.6 Germany* -2.6 -2.2 -1.5 1.3 -2.8 -3.6 -4.0 -3.8 -3.3 -1.6 0.2 0.0 -3.3 Greece* -5.9 -3.8 -3.1 -3.7 -4.4 -4.8 -5.7 -7.4 -5.3 -3.8 -5.4 -7.7 -13.5 Indonesia -0.7 -2.9 -1.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.3 -1.8 -1.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -1.6 1.4 2.3 2.6 4.8 0.9 -0.3 0.4 1.4 1.6 3.0 0.1 -7.3 -14.3 Israel -4.7 -4.1 -4.4 -2.2 -4.1 -4.4 -6.9 -4.3 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.9 -5.4 Italy* -2.7 -3.1 -1.8 -0.9 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.6 -4.4 -3.3 -1.5 -2.7 -5.2 Japan* -4.0 -11.2 -7.4 -7.6 -6.3 -8.0 -7.9 -6.2 -6.7 -1.6 -2.4 -2.1 -7.2 Korea* 3.0 1.3 2.4 5.4 4.3 5.1 0.5 2.7 3.4 3.9 4.7 3.0 0.0 Malaysia 7.5 4.3 4.0 1.5 4.5 3.9 4.2 1.7 1.6 2.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 Mexico -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.0 -2.1 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.8 -2.0 -1.6 . Netherlands* -1.2 -0.9 0.4 2.0 -0.3 -2.1 -3.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 -5.3 New Zealand* 1.4 0.3 -0.0 1.9 1.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.5 5.1 4.0 0.4 -3.5 Norway* 7.6 3.3 6.0 15.4 13.3 9.2 7.3 11.1 15.1 18.5 17.7 19.1 9.7 Philippines 0.1 -1.9 -3.8 -4.1 -4.0 -5.4 -4.6 -3.8 -2.7 -1.1 -0.2 -1.3 -3.9 Singapore 9.6 16.8 10.4 11.3 -0.3 -1.6 6.4 5.5 6.6 9.4 11.5 9.0 -1.3 South Africa -4.1 -2.6 -1.8 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 -2.1 -2.6 -0.8 0.0 0.6 -0.6 -6.0 Spain* -3.4 -3.2 -1.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 1.0 2.0 1.9 -4.1 -11.2 Sweden* -1.6 0.9 0.8 3.6 1.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.4 1.9 2.2 3.5 2.2 -1.1 Switzerland -1.4 0.1 -0.7 1.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.6 0.3 1.2 0.9 -0.7 0.2 Thailand -1.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 -2.6 -1.4 0.3 0.0 -0.5 1.4 -2.0 -1.1 -4.0 Turkey -7.8 -5.3 -8.6 -7.7 -11.9 -11.2 -8.8 -5.4 -1.3 -0.8 -1.7 -1.9 -5.5 United Kingdom* -2.2 -0.1 0.9 3.7 0.6 -2.0 -3.7 -3.6 -3.3 -2.7 -2.7 -4.9 -11.3 United States* -1.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.1 -2.2 -5.5 -6.3 -5.8 -4.6 -3.6 -4.2 -7.7 -11.9 0.3 -4.9 -2.2 -4.6 -5.2 -1.5 -3.7 -2.8 1.0 -0.6 0.8 -3.1 . Ireland* Venezuela * Copyright , 2010, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook (www.oecd.org). Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 International Economic Trends Reference Tables Short-Term Interest Rates Annual percent 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia 5.4 5.0 5.0 6.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.0 3.4 Canada 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.8 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.8 2.3 0.4 Chile 12.0 14.9 8.6 9.2 6.2 3.8 2.7 1.9 3.9 5.1 5.6 7.5 2.0 China 8.6 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.8 Denmark** 3.7 4.1 3.3 4.9 4.6 3.5 2.4 2.1 2.2 3.1 4.3 4.9 1.8 Euro Area 4.4 4.0 3.0 4.4 4.3 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.1 4.3 4.6 1.2 Indonesia 20.0 39.1 25.7 12.5 15.5 15.5 10.6 6.4 8.1 11.4 8.0 8.5 9.3 Israel 13.4 11.3 11.4 8.8 6.5 7.4 7.0 4.8 4.3 5.6 4.3 3.9 1.4 Japan* 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 Korea 13.3 15.0 5.0 5.2 4.7 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.4 4.2 4.8 4.8 2.0 6.4 6.9 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.1 22.3 27.1 24.6 17.2 13.4 8.5 7.2 7.4 9.6 7.7 7.8 8.4 5.9 New Zealand 7.7 7.3 4.8 6.5 5.7 5.7 5.4 6.1 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.0 3.0 Norway 3.7 5.8 6.5 6.7 7.2 6.9 4.1 2.0 2.2 3.1 5.0 6.2 2.5 Philippines 12.9 15.0 10.0 9.9 9.7 5.5 5.9 7.3 6.1 5.3 3.4 4.7 4.5 Singapore 4.4 5.0 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 2.3 3.5 2.7 1.3 0.7 15.3 16.5 12.9 10.1 9.7 11.2 10.7 7.5 6.9 7.3 9.1 10.8 7.9 Sweden 4.1 4.2 3.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.0 2.1 1.7 2.3 3.6 3.9 0.4 Switzerland 1.6 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.6 2.5 0.4 Thailand 21.7 2.6 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.8 3.8 4.9 3.2 2.7 1.0 Turkey** 70.3 74.6 73.5 38.9 92.4 59.5 38.5 23.8 15.6 17.9 18.3 18.9 11.0 United Kingdom 6.8 7.3 5.4 6.1 5.0 4.0 3.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 6.0 5.5 1.2 United States 5.6 5.5 5.3 6.5 3.7 1.7 1.2 1.6 3.5 5.2 5.3 3.0 0.6 45.0 60.0 38.0 38.0 37.0 40.0 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 33.5 29.1 Malaysia Mexico South Africa Venezuela * The actual value for 2003 is 0.037; the actual value for 2004 is 0.029; the actual value for 2005 is 0.029. ** Copyright , 2010, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook (www.oecd.org). Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Reference Tables Exchange Rates Percent appreciation (+) or depreciation (-) of the U.S. dollar against the local currency 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Australia 5.3 18.1 -2.4 11.0 12.5 -4.9 -16.7 -11.5 -3.4 1.2 -10.2 -1.6 7.6 Canada 1.6 7.1 0.1 -0.0 4.3 1.4 -10.8 -7.1 -6.9 -6.4 -5.3 -0.7 7.0 Chile 1.7 9.8 10.5 6.1 17.7 8.5 0.4 -11.8 -8.2 -5.3 -1.5 -0.0 7.3 China -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -2.7 -4.6 -8.6 -1.7 Denmark 13.9 1.4 4.2 15.9 2.9 -5.3 -16.6 -9.0 0.1 -0.9 -8.4 -6.3 5.2 Euro Area 13.9 1.6 4.4 15.5 3.1 -5.3 -16.5 -9.0 -0.1 -0.9 -8.4 -6.8 5.5 Indonesia 24.2 244.2 -21.6 7.2 21.8 -9.3 -7.9 4.2 8.6 -5.6 -0.2 6.1 7.1 Israel 8.1 10.2 8.9 -1.5 3.1 12.7 -3.9 -1.6 0.1 -0.7 -7.8 -12.7 9.6 Japan 11.3 8.0 -13.1 -5.2 12.7 3.1 -7.5 -6.7 1.8 5.6 1.2 -12.2 -9.5 Korea 18.5 47.2 -15.3 -4.9 14.2 -3.2 -4.7 -3.9 -10.6 -6.8 -2.6 18.5 15.9 Malaysia 12.0 39.3 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.3 -3.2 -6.3 -3.0 5.7 Mexico 4.2 15.4 4.6 -1.1 -1.2 3.4 11.7 4.6 -3.4 0.0 0.3 1.8 21.4 New Zealand 3.8 23.4 1.4 15.9 8.7 -9.5 -20.2 -12.4 -5.7 8.4 -11.7 3.1 12.4 Norway 9.6 6.6 3.3 12.9 2.1 -11.2 -11.4 -4.8 -4.4 -0.5 -8.7 -3.6 11.4 Philippines 12.4 38.8 -4.4 13.1 15.4 1.2 5.0 3.4 -1.7 -6.8 -10.1 -4.0 7.6 Singapore 5.4 12.5 1.4 1.8 3.9 -0.1 -2.7 -3.0 -1.5 -4.6 -5.2 -6.1 2.8 South Africa 7.2 20.0 10.6 13.6 24.2 21.9 -28.2 -14.7 -1.4 6.4 4.2 17.2 2.0 Sweden 13.9 4.1 3.9 11.0 12.7 -6.0 -16.9 -9.1 1.7 -1.3 -8.4 -2.4 16.0 Switzerland 17.3 -0.1 3.7 12.5 -0.1 -7.8 -13.6 -7.6 0.3 0.6 -4.3 -9.8 0.3 Thailand 22.5 33.0 -8.3 6.2 10.7 -3.3 -3.4 -3.1 -0.1 -5.9 -15.0 2.4 4.1 Turkey 86.6 71.7 60.6 49.3 96.0 23.0 -0.4 -5.0 -5.7 6.3 -8.8 -0.1 19.1 -4.7 -1.2 2.4 6.7 5.3 -4.2 -8.1 -10.8 0.7 -1.3 -7.9 8.1 18.3 7.7 4.8 -1.6 4.9 6.0 -1.5 -12.3 -8.2 -1.9 -1.5 -5.6 -4.4 4.5 17.1 12.1 10.6 12.3 6.4 60.4 38.5 17.7 10.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 -1.6 United Kingdom United States1 Venezuela 1 Percent appreciation (+) or depreciation (-) of the U.S. dollar against a group of currencies Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 International Economic Trends Australia GDP Percent change from year ago 12 9 Nominal 6 3 Real 0 94 95 94 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 8 6 CPI 4 2 GDP Deflator 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 25 M1 20 15 10 M3 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 10 15-Year T-Bonds 8 6 13-Week T-Bills 4 2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Australia Current Account Balance Percent of GDP -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Australian Dollars per US$ 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 60 50 40 30 20 10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 International Economic Trends Canada GDP Percent change from year ago 12 Nominal 8 4 Real 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 6 4 2 CPI 0 GDP Deflator -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 15 M1 10 5 0 M2 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 10 10-Year Government Bonds 8 6 4 2 90-Day Prime Corporate Paper 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Canada Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Canadian Dollars per US$ 1.60 1.45 1.30 1.15 1.00 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 50 40 30 20 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 5 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 International Economic Trends Chile GDP Percent change from year ago 30 20 Nominal 10 0 Real -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 20 15 GDP Deflator 10 CPI 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 30 24 M1A 18 12 M2A 6 0 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 20 30-89 Day Deposit Rate 15 10 5 10-Year Central Bank Notes 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 *Data prior to 2002 for 10-year central bank notes may not be strictly comparable with later figures (see Notes). 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Chile Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Chilean Pesos per US$ 700 600 500 400 300 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 25 20 15 10 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 International Economic Trends China GDP Percent change from year ago 40 Nominal 30 20 10 Real 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 25 20 CPI 15 10 GDP Deflator 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 40 Broad Money 30 20 M1 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 12 Bank Rate on 20-Day Loans 8 4 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends China Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 12 9 6 3 0 -3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Chinese Yuan per US$ 10 8 6 4 2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 1 0 -1 -2 -3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 International Economic Trends Denmark GDP Percent change from year ago 8 Nominal 4 0 Real -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 4 3 CPI 2 GDP Deflator 1 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 M3 15 10 M1 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 10 8 10-Year Government Bonds 6 4 3-Month Interbank Rate 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Denmark Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Danish Kroner per US$ 9 8 7 6 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 80 60 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 International Economic Trends Euro Area GDP Percent change from year ago 6 Nominal 3 Real 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation and Exchange Rate Percent change from year ago Euro per US$ 1.4 4 CPI (left scale) 3 1.2 2 1.0 0.8 1 Exchange Rate (right scale) 0 94 95 96 97 0.6 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 16 M1 12 8 4 M3 0 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 10 8 Weighted Average of Government Bonds 6 4 90-Day Deposits 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Austria GDP Percent change from year ago 6 Nominal 3 Real 0 -3 -6 94 95 94 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 4 3 CPI 2 1 GDP Deflator 0 -1 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 International Economic Trends Finland GDP Percent change from year ago 12 8 Nominal 4 Real 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 6 GDP Deflator 4 2 CPI 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 12 9 6 3 0 -3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends France GDP Percent change from year ago 6 Nominal 4 2 Real 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 4 3 CPI 2 GDP Deflator 1 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 International Economic Trends Germany GDP Percent change from year ago 6 Nominal 3 0 Real -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 3 GDP Deflator 2 CPI 1 0 -1 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 8 6 4 2 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Greece GDP Percent change from year ago 15 Nominal 10 5 Real 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 12 GDP Deflator 9 6 3 CPI 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27 International Economic Trends Ireland GDP Percent change from year ago 20 Nominal 10 Real 0 -10 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 8 GDP Deflator 6 4 2 CPI 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 28 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Italy GDP Percent change from year ago 9 Nominal 6 3 0 Real -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 6 GDP Deflator 4 2 CPI 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 29 International Economic Trends Netherlands GDP Percent change from year ago 12 Nominal 8 4 Real 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 6 GDP Deflator 4 CPI 2 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 30 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Spain GDP Percent change from year ago 9 Nominal 6 3 Real 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 6 GDP Deflator 4 2 CPI 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 31 International Economic Trends Indonesia GDP Percent change from year ago 60 Nominal 45 30 15 0 Real -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 80 GDP Deflator 60 40 20 CPI 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 80 M2 60 40 M1 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 40 30 3-Month Time Deposits 20 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 32 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Indonesia Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 1 0 -1 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Thousands of Indonesian Rupiah per US$ 12 9 6 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 80 60 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 *Data prior to 2000 are based on the fiscal year ending in March. Data from 2000 forward are based on the calendar year. 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 33 International Economic Trends Israel GDP Percent change from year ago 30 20 Nominal 10 0 Real -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 15 CPI 10 GDP Deflator 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 60 40 M3 20 M1 0 -20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 T-Bills 9 6 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 34 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Israel Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Israeli Sheqalim per US$ 5 4 3 2 1 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 60 45 30 15 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 35 International Economic Trends Japan GDP Percent change from year ago 4 Real 2 0 Nominal -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 2 1 CPI 0 -1 GDP Deflator -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 *Data prior to 1995 uses a fixed 1995 base year and may not be strictly comparable with later figures. 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 30 20 M1 10 M2 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 5 4 3 10-Year Government Bonds 2 1 3-Month CDs 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 36 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Japan Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 5 4 3 2 1 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Japanese Yen per US$ 150 130 110 90 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 3 0 -3 -6 -9 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 37 International Economic Trends Korea GDP Percent change from year ago 20 Nominal 10 0 Real -10 94 95 94 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 9 CPI 6 3 GDP Deflator 0 -3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 30 M2 20 10 M1 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 20 1-Day Call Money 15 10 1- to 5-Year Government Bonds 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 38 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Korea Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Korean Won per US$ 1500 1200 900 600 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 300 240 180 120 60 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 6 4 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 39 International Economic Trends Malaysia GDP Percent change from year ago 24 Nominal 16 8 0 Real -8 -16 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 12 GDP Deflator 8 4 CPI 0 -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 40 M2 20 0 M1 -20 -40 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 8 3-Month T-Bills 6 4 2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 40 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Malaysia Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 20 10 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Malaysian Ringgit per US$ 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 125 100 75 50 25 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 9 6 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 41 International Economic Trends Mexico GDP Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 8 40 Real (left scale) 4 30 0 20 10 -4 Nominal (right scale) -8 0 -10 -12 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Inflation Percent change from year ago 40 30 CPI 20 GDP Deflator 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 97 96 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 50 40 30 20 M1 M4 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 50 40 3-Month T-Bills 30 20 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 42 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Mexico Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Mexican Pesos per US$ 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 100 80 60 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 43 International Economic Trends New Zealand GDP Percent change from year ago 10 Nominal 8 6 4 2 Real 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 5 4 CPI 3 2 1 GDP Deflator 0 -1 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 M1 15 10 5 M3 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 10 90-Day Bank Bill 8 6 10-Year Government Bonds 4 2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 44 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends New Zealand Current Account Balance Percent of GDP -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate New Zealand Dollars per US$ 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 45 International Economic Trends Norway GDP Percent change from year ago 20 Nominal 15 10 5 Real 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 16 12 GDP Deflator 8 4 0 CPI -4 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 25 20 M1 15 10 5 M2 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 12 9 6- to 10-Year Government Bonds 6 3-Month NIBOR 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 46 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Norway Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 20 16 12 8 4 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Norwegian Kroner per US$ 9 8 7 6 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 75 60 45 30 15 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 47 International Economic Trends Philippines GDP Percent change from year ago 18 15 Nominal 12 9 6 3 Real 0 -3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 12 CPI GDP Deflator 9 6 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 50 40 Broad Money M1 30 20 10 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 18 15 91-Day T-Bills 12 9 6 3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 48 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Philippines Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Philippine Pesos per US$ 60 50 40 30 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 40 32 24 16 8 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 49 International Economic Trends Singapore GDP Percent change from year ago 15 Nominal 10 Real 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 9 6 CPI 3 0 -3 GDP Deflator -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 40 M2 30 20 10 0 M1 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 6 5 4 3-Month Interbank Rate 3 2 1 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 50 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Singapore Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 25 20 15 10 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Singapore Dollars per US$ 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 20 15 10 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 51 International Economic Trends South Africa GDP Percent change from year ago 20 Nominal 15 10 Real 5 0 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 15 12 GDP Deflator 9 6 CPI 3 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 40 M1 30 20 M2 10 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 18 16 Government Bonds (> 10 yrs) 14 12 10 91-Day T-Bills 8 6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 52 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends South Africa Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 3 0 -3 -6 -9 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate South African Rand per US$ 12 10 8 6 4 2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 40 32 24 16 8 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 3 0 -3 -6 -9 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 53 International Economic Trends Sweden GDP Percent change from year ago 9 Nominal 6 3 Real 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 6 4 GDP Deflator 2 CPI 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 250 200 150 100 50 M3 0 Reserve Money* -50 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 * Reserve Money now include banks’ deposits with the Riksbank and Riksbank Certificates. For more information, visit http://www.riksbank.com/pagefolders/40337/Monetara_basen_PM_eng.pdf. 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 12 9 9- to 10-Year Government Bonds 6 3 3-Month Treasury Discount Notes 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 54 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Sweden Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 8 6 4 2 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Swedish Kronor per US$ 11 9 7 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 41 35 29 23 17 11 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 5 0 -5 -10 -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 55 International Economic Trends Switzerland GDP Percent change from year ago 6 4 Nominal 2 Real 0 -2 94 94 95 95 96 97 96 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 4 3 CPI 2 1 0 GDP Deflator -1 94 94 95 95 96 97 96 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 25 20 15 M1 10 5 M3 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 6 Long-Term Government Bonds 4 2 3-Month LIBOR 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 56 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Switzerland Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 20 15 10 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Swiss Francs per US$ 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 100 80 60 40 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 1 0 -1 -2 -3 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 57 International Economic Trends Thailand GDP Percent change from year ago 30 Nominal 15 0 Real -15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 10 CPI 5 0 GDP Deflator -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 40 M1 30 20 M2 10 0 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 25 20 15 1-Day Interbank Rate 10 5 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 58 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Thailand Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Thai Baht per US$ 45 40 35 30 25 20 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 135 110 85 60 35 10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 6 3 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 59 International Economic Trends Turkey GDP Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 15 110 Nominal (right scale) 10 90 5 70 0 50 Real (left scale) -5 30 -10 10 -15 -10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Inflation Percent change from year ago 120 100 80 CPI 60 GDP Deflator 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 150 M2 120 90 M1 60 30 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 140 1-Year Government Bonds 120 100 80 60 3-Month T-Bills 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 60 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Turkey Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 3 0 -3 -6 -9 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate New Turkish Lira per US$ 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Note: As of January 1, 2005, the currency unit of the Republic of Turkey is the New Turkish Lira, which is equivalent to one million Turkish Lira. Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 80 60 40 20 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 61 International Economic Trends United Kingdom GDP Percent change from year ago 9 Nominal 6 3 Real 0 -3 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 99 98 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 4 3 GDP Deflator 2 1 CPI 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 20 16 M2 12 M4 8 4 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 10 10-Year Government Bonds 8 6 3-Month Interbank Rate 4 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 62 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United Kingdom Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate U.K. Pounds per US$ 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 50 45 40 35 30 25 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 4 0 -4 -8 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 63 International Economic Trends United States GDP Percent change from year ago 8 Nominal 6 4 Real 2 0 -2 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Inflation Percent change from year ago 4 CPI 3 2 GDP Deflator 1 0 -1 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 16 MZM 12 8 M2 4 0 -4 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 8 Long-Term Government Bonds 6 3-Month CDs 4 2 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 64 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends United States Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Trade-Weighted Exchange Index, March 1973 = 100 110 100 90 80 70 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 65 International Economic Trends Venezuela GDP Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 20 120 15 100 Nominal (right scale) 10 80 5 60 0 40 Real (left scale) -5 20 -10 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 *Data prior to 1998 use a fixed 1984 base year and may not be strictly comparable with later figures. Inflation Percent change from year ago 125 100 75 CPI 50 25 GDP Deflator 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Monetary Aggregates Percent change from year ago 150 120 M1 90 60 M2 30 0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Interest Rates Percent 75 3-Month Interbank Rate 60 45 30 15 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division 66 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Economic Trends Venezuela Current Account Balance Percent of GDP 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Exchange Rate Venezuelan Bolivares per US$ 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Foreign Exchange Reserves Billions of US$ 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Government Budget Balance Percent of GDP 2 0 -2 -4 -6 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 67 International Economic Trends Notes Euro-Area Data: The euro area was enlarged to include Greece on January 1, 2001, Slovenia on January 1, 2007, Cyprus and Malta on January 1, 2008, and Slovakia on January 1, 2009. Data series are break adjusted and include all euro area countries for the full sample, with the exception of interest rates that incorporate Greece starting in 2001, and Slovenia starting in 2007. Euro-area interest rates prior to December 1998 are calculated on the basis of national government yields weighted by GDP. Starting in 1999, short-term rates are euro interbank offered rates. Long-term rates are calculated on the basis of national government bond yields weighted by the nominal outstanding amounts of government bonds in each maturity band. The euro/dollar exchange rate used in the chart on page 22 is a synthetic rate prior to January 1999. This is constructed by calculating a weighted average of the exchange rates of the euro-area countries, excluding Greece and Luxembourg, and Slovenia against the dollar. The weights are based on 1997 GDP shares. Consumer price index data are annual averages. The base year is 2005 for all countries with the following exceptions: United States (1982-84), and China (base year not given). Data for Austria, the euro area, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain are based on the harmonized index of consumer prices and use a 2005 base period. Current account balance is the sum of merchandise and service exports and income receipts on domestic assets abroad minus the sum of merchandise and service imports and income payments from foreign assets in the domestic economy plus net unilateral transfers. Exchange rates are annual averages. For all countries except the United States, the exchange rate is expressed as units of local currency per U.S. dollar. For the United States, the trade-weighted exchange rate is used. This is a weighted average of the exchange value of the U.S. dollar relative to the major international currencies—the euro, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Swedish kronor. Prior to 1999, the currencies of the euro-area countries (with the exception of Greece) are used instead of the euro. Foreign exchange reserve data are end of period. The dollar value of reserves may fluctuate as a result of changes in reserve holdings and/or changes in the value of the currencies held vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. Real gross domestic product and the GDP deflator use a chained (2000) base year for all countries with the following exceptions: Australia (2006-07), Austria (chained 2005), Canada (chained 2002), Chile (2003), China (1990), Greece (2000), Indonesia (2000), Ireland (chained 2007), Israel (chained 2005), Korea (chained 2005), Malaysia (2000), Mexico (2003), New Zealand (chained 1995-96), Norway (chained 2006), Philippines (1985), Singapore (2000), South Africa (2005), Thailand (1988), Turkey (chained 1998), United Kingdom (chained 2005), United Sates (chained 2005), and Venezuela (1997). The short-term interest rate table on page 10 uses the relevant interest rate shown in the country pages. For most countries, this is a 3-month interest rate. Both short-term and long-term interest rate data are annual averages. Chile’s long-term interest rate data prior to 2002 reflect yields on 10-year indexed promissory notes payable in coupons. Data from 2002 pertain to yields on 10-year Central Bank of Chile bonds indexed in accord with changes in the inflation-indexed accounting unit on promissory notes. Monetary Aggregates Data are end of period for all countries with the exception of the United States, for which period averages are used. Except as noted below the narrow monetary aggregate for each country consists of currency in circulation outside banks and demand deposits. The broad monetary aggregate consists of narrow money plus time, savings, and foreign currency deposits of resident sectors other than the central government. Australia: M1 consists of currency in circulation and current deposits with banks. M3 consists of M1 plus other deposits with banks. Canada: M1 consists of currency in circulation and chartered bank net demand deposits. M2 consists of M1 plus all checkable notice deposits and personal term deposits. 68 Notes and Sources Chile: M1A consists of currency in circulation, checking accounts of the nonfinancial private sector net of float, demand deposits, and demand saving deposits. M2A consists of M1A plus private sector time deposits. Denmark: M1 consists of currency in circulation and overnight deposits. M3 consists of M1 plus short-term deposits and marketable liabilities of monetary and financial institutions. Euro area: M1 consists of currency in circulation and overnight deposits. M3 consists of M1 plus deposits with a maturity up to 2 years, deposits redeemable at notice up to 3 months, repurchase agreements, money market funds, and debt securities up to 2 years. Japan: M2+CDs consists of M1 plus private deposits, public deposits less demand deposits, and certificates of deposit. Korea: M2 consists of M1 plus time deposits, savings deposits, and residents’ deposits in foreign currency at deposit money banks. Malaysia: M2 consists of M1 plus fixed and savings deposits, negotiable CDs, and Central Bank certificates. Mexico: M1 consists of currency in circulation plus checking accounts held by residents, in domestic or foreign currency, and domestic currency interest accounts. M4 consists of M1, plus residents’ holdings of other bank deposits, securities issued by private entities and retirement saving funds, bank deposits held by non-residents, Federal Government securities held by residents or non-residents and the gains of the Mexican banks through their foreign branch offices. New Zealand: M1 consists of currency in circulation plus transaction accounts. M3 consists of M1 plus call and term funding. Norway: M1 consists of currency in circulation plus transaction deposit accounts in domestic and foreign currency held by the domestic sector. M2 consists of M1 plus other bank deposits in domestic and foreign currency, except restricted deposits (bank saving with tax credit, etc.), including certificates of deposit. Singapore: M2 consists of M1 plus fixed deposits, negotiable CDs in domestic currency, savings deposits, and other deposits. South Africa: M2 consists of M1 plus short- and medium-term deposits of the domestic private sector with the monetary institutions. Sweden: Reserve money consists of currency in circulation, deposits of the deposit money banks, and demand deposits of other residents apart from the central government with the monetary authorities. M3 consists of reserve money plus sight, term, and savings deposits at commercial, savings, and cooperative banks. Data also include bank certificates and deposits at post and credit banks. Switzerland: M1 consists of currency in circulation, sight deposits, and transaction accounts held in banks in domestic currency by residents. M3 consists of M1 plus savings and time deposits in domestic currency held in banks by residents. Turkey: M1 consists of currency in circulation and demand deposits held at deposit money banks and at the Central Bank. United Kingdom: M2 consists of currency in circulation and sterling retail deposits with U.K. banks and building societies. From December 1992, M2 includes retail deposits and cash of M4. Care should be exercised when making comparisons around this date. M4 consists of M2 plus wholesale deposits with U.K. banks and building societies. United States: MZM consists of currency in circulation, travelers checks and demand and other checkable deposits held by the public minus cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float, savings deposits, shares in retail money funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts and institutional money funds. M2 consists of MZM plus small denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits less institutional money funds. Venezuela: M1 consists of currency in circulation and sight deposits. M2 consists of M1 plus savings and term deposits and debentures. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Notes and Sources Sources Abbreviations Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (BOG) International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Economic Outlook (OECD1) Main Economic Indicators (OECD2) Australia BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, interest rates, and monetary aggregates. Austria Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: current account balance, GDP, and government budget balance. Canada BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, interest rates, and monetary aggregates. Chile Banco Centrale de Chile: current account balance, government budget balance, long-term interest rate, monetary aggregates, and GDP. IMF: consumer price index, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, and short-term interest rate. China BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves, monetary aggregates, and short-term interest rate. People’s Bank of China: current account balance. State Statistical Bureau (China): government budget balance and nominal GDP. WEO: consumer price index and real GDP. Denmark BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. National Bank of Denmark: monetary aggregates. OECD1: current account balance, government budget balance, GDP, and interest rates. OECD2: consumer price index. International Economic Trends Indonesia Bank Indonesia: current account balance. Central Bureau of Statistics (Indonesia): GDP. IMF: consumer price index, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, monetary aggregates, and short-term interest rate. Ministry of Finance (Indonesia): government budget balance. Ireland Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: current account balance, GDP, and government budget balance. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (Israel): monetary aggregates. IMF: consumer price index, current account balance, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, GDP, and short-term interest rate. WEO: government budget balance. Italy Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: current account balance and GDP. Japan Bank of Japan: long-term interest rate. BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, monetary aggregates, and short-term interest rate. Korea BOG: exchange rate. IMF: consumer price index, foreign exchange reserves, and short-term interest rate. OECD1: government budget balance and long-term interest rate. OECD2: current account balance, GDP, and monetary aggregates. Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia: current account balance, GDP, and government budget balance. BOG: exchange rate. IMF: consumer price index, foreign exchange reserves, monetary aggregates, and short-term interest rate. Mexico IMF: exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. Ministry of Finance: government budget balance. OECD1: current account balance and GDP. OECD2: consumer price index, short-term interest rate, and monetary aggregates. Euro area Eurostat: consumer price index and GDP. Haver Analytics: exchange rate. OECD2: interest rates and monetary aggregates. Netherlands Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: current account balance and GDP. Finland Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: current account balance and GDP. New Zealand BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: current account balance and government budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, GDP, interest rates, and monetary aggregates. France Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: current account balance and GDP. Germany Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: current account balance, GDP, and government budget balance. Greece Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: current account balance, GDP, and government budget balance. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Norway BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: current account balance and government budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, GDP, interest rates, and monetary aggregates. Philippines Central Bank of Philippines: current account balance and monetary aggregates. IMF: consumer price index, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, GDP, government budget balance, and short-term interest rate. 69 International Economic Trends Notes and Sources Singapore BOG: exchange rate. IMF: consumer price index, foreign exchange reserves, government budget balance, monetary aggregates, and short-term interest rate. Singapore Department of Statistics: GDP. Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry: current account balance. Turkey Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey: broad money. IMF: exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: current account balance, GDP, and interest rates. OECD2: consumer price index and M1. Undersecratariat of Treasury and Foreign Trade: government budget balance. South Africa BOG: exchange rate. IMF: current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, GDP, government budget balance, and interest rates. South African Reserve Bank: consumer price index and monetary aggregates. United Kingdom BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: government budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, interest rates, and monetary aggregates. Spain Eurostat: consumer price index. OECD1: current account balance, GDP, and government budget balance. Sweden BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves and reserve money. OECD1: current account balance, GDP, government budget balance, and long-term interest rate. OECD2: broad money, consumer price index, and short-term interest rate. Switzerland BOG: exchange rate. IMF: foreign exchange reserves and government budget balance. OECD2: consumer price index, current account balance, GDP, interest rates, and monetary aggregates. United States BOG: trade-weighted exchange rate, short-term interest rate, and M2. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: current account balance and GDP. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor: consumer price index. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: MZM. IMF: foreign exchange reserves. OECD1: government budget balance. U.S. Treasury: long-term interest rate. Venezuela Banco Central de Venezuela: current account balance, GDP, government budget balance, and monetary aggregates. IMF: consumer price index, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, and short-term interest rate. Thailand Bank of Thailand: monetary aggregates, government budget balance, and short-term interest rate. BOG: exchange rate. IMF: consumer price index, current account balance, and foreign exchange reserves. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board: GDP. 70 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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