Full text of Inside the Vault : Spring 2010
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Volume 14 Issue 1 Spring 2010 ©2005 iStockphoto; Eliza Snow A n E c o n o m i c E d u c at i o n Ne w s l e t t e r f r o m t h e Fe d e r a l Re s e r v e B a n k S t. L o u i s What’s Your Question? Income, Education, Employment and Poverty Economic Snapshot Education Pays Bulletin Board Summer School at the Fed Cards, Cars and Currency Resources Economics and Children’s Literature www.stlouisfed.org/education U.S. Income Inequality: It’s Not So Bad Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau releases data on the income levels of America’s households. A comparison of the annual data over time reveals that the income of wealthier households has been growing faster than the income of poorer households—the real income of the wealthiest 5 percent of households rose by 14 percent between 1996 and 2006, while the income of the poorest 20 percent of households rose by just 6 percent. As a result of these differences in income growth, the income of the wealthiest 5 percent of households grew from 8.1 times that of the income of the poorest 20 percent of households in 1996 to 8.7 times as great by 2006. Such figures commonly lead to the conclusion that income inequality in the United States has increased. This apparent increase in income inequality has not escaped the attention of policy makers and social activists who support public policies aimed at reducing income inequality. However, the common measures of income inequality that are derived from the census statistics exaggerate the degree of income inequality in the United States in several ways. Furthermore, although many people consider income inequality a social ill, it is important to understand that income inequality has many economic benefits and is the result of—and not a detriment to—a well-functioning economy. An Inaccurate Picture The Census Bureau essentially ranks all households by household income and then divides this distribution of households into quintiles. The highest-ranked household in each quintile provides the upper income limit for each quintile. Comparing changes in these upper income limits over time for different quintiles reveals that the income of wealthier households has been growing faster than the income of poorer households, thus giving the impression of an increasing “income gap” or “shrinking middle class.” One big problem with inferring income inequality from the census income statistics is that the census statistics provide only a snapshot of income distribution in the U.S., at a single point in time. The statistics do not reflect the reality that income for many households changes over time—i.e., incomes are mobile. For most people, income increases over time as they move from their first, low-paying job in high school to a better-paying job later in their lives. Also, some people lose income over time because of business-cycle contractions, demotions, career changes, retirement, etc. The implication of changing individual incomes is that individual households do not remain in the same income quintiles over time. Thus, continued on Page 2 T h e f e d e r a l r e s e r v e ba n k o f s t. l o u i s : Ce n t r a l t o A m e r i c a ’ s e c o n o m y ™ Income Inequality continued from Page 1 comparing different income quintiles over time is like comparing apples to oranges, because it means comparing incomes of different people at different stages in their earnings profile. The U.S. Treasury released a study in November 2007 that examined income mobility in the U.S. from 1996 to 2005. Using data from individual tax returns, the study documented the movement of households along the distribution of real income over the 10-year period. As shown in Figure 1A, the study found that nearly 58 percent of the households that were in the lowest income quintile (the lowest 20 percent) in 1996 moved to a higher income quintile by 2005. Similarly, nearly 50 percent of the households in the second-lowest quintile in 1996 moved to a higher income quintile by 2005. Even a significant number of households in the third- and fourth-lowest income quintiles in 1996 moved to a higher quintile in 2005. The Treasury study also documented falls in household income between 1996 and 2005. This is most interesting when considering the richest households. As shown in Figure 1B, more than 57 percent of the richest 1 percent of households in 1996 fell out of that category by 2005. Similarly, more than 45 percent of the households that ranked in the top 5 percent of income in 1996 fell out of that category by 2005. Thus it is clear that over time, a significant number of households move to higher positions along the income distribution, and a significant number move to lower positions along the income distribution. Common reference to “classes” of people (e.g., the lowest 20 percent or the richest 10 percent) is quite misleading because income classes do not contain the same households and people over time. Another problem with drawing inferences from the census statistics is that the statistics do not include the noncash resources received by lower-income households—resources transferred to the households—and the tax payments made by wealthier households to fund these transfers. Lower-income households annually receive tens of billions of dollars in subsidies for housing, food and medical care. None of these are considered income by the Census Bureau. Thus the resources available to lowerincome households are actually greater than is suggested by the income of those households as reported in the census data. At the same time, these noncash payments to lower-income households are funded with taxpayer dollars—mostly from wealthier households, since they pay a majority of overall taxes. One research report estimates that the share of total income 2 earned by the lowest income quintile increases roughly 50 percent—whereas the share of total income earned by the highest income quintile drops roughly 7 percent—when transfer payments and taxes are considered. The census statistics also do not account for the fact that the households in each quintile contain different numbers of people; it is differences in income across people, rather than differences in income by household, that provide a clearer measure of inequality. Lower-income households tend to consist of single people with low earnings, whereas higherincome households tend to include married couples with multiple earners. The fact that lower-income households have fewer people than higher-income households skews the income distribution by person. When considering household size along with transfers received and taxes paid, the income share of the lowest quintile nearly triples and the income share of the highest quintile falls by 25 percent. Is Policy Needed? Income inequality will still exist even if the income inequality statistics are adjusted to account for the aforementioned factors. Given the negative attention income inequality receives in the media, it is important to ask whether reducing income inequality is a worthy goal of public policy. It is important to understand that income inequality is a byproduct of a well-functioning capitalist economy. Individuals’ earnings are directly related to their productivity. Wealthy people are not wealthy because they have more money; it is because they have greater productivity. Different incomes reflect different productivity levels. The unconstrained opportunity for individuals to create value for society—and the fact that their income reflects the value they create—encourages innovation and entrepreneurship. Economic research has documented a positive correlation between entrepreneurship/innovation and overall economic growth. A wary eye should be cast on policies that aim to shrink the income distribution by redistributing income from the more productive to the less productive simply for the sake of “fairness.” Redistribution of wealth increases the costs of entrepreneurship and innovation, with the result being lower overall economic growth for everyone. Poverty and income inequality are related, but only the former deserves a policy-based response. Sound economic policy to reduce poverty would lift people out of poverty (increase their productivity) while not reducing the well-being of wealthier individuals. Glossary Tools to implement such a policy include investments in education and job training. Income inequality should not be vilified, and public policy should encourage people to move up the income distribution and not penalize them for having already done so. Adjusted gross income — Total income less statutory adjustments. Business cycle — The periodic but irregular up-and-down movements in economic activity, measured by fluctuations in real GDP and other macroeconomic variables. Thomas Garrett is an assistant vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Capitalism — Economic system characterized by the following: ownership of private property; individuals and companies that are allowed to compete for their own economic gain; and free-market forces that determine the prices of goods and services. 1996 Household Income Quintile Figure 1A. Movement to Higher Income Quintiles 1996-2005 Income — Earnings received as wages, rent, profit or interest; payments received for providing natural, human capital and entrepreneurial resources in the market. Lowest Quintile Inflation — A sustained increase in the average price level. Second-Lowest Poverty — A condition that occurs when people do not enjoy a certain minimum level of living standards, as determined by a government. Third-Lowest Productivity — A ratio of output to input during a specified period of time. For example, output per worker is a measure of the productivity of labor during an hour, week, month or year. The productivity of workers can be increased through division of labor, investment in human capital and investment in capital resources. Fourth-Lowest 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 % In a Higher Quintile by 2005 Purchasing power — A measurement of the relative value of money in terms of the quality and quantity of goods and services it can buy. 1996 Income Group Figure 1B. Movement to Lower Income Group 1996-2005 Quintile — One of five equal parts of a range of data, each being 1/5th (20 percent) of the range. Top 10% Real income — Income expressed in terms of the goods and services it can purchase. Top 5% Standard of living — A measure of the goods and services available to a person in a country; the dollar value is calculated as per capita GDP. Top 1% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Subsidies — Financial assistance given by the government to individuals or groups. 60 Taxes — Mandatory government fees on business and individual income, activities or products. % In a Lower Group by 2005 Taxable income — Adjusted gross income less standardized or itemized deductions. Source: Treasury Department One problem with popular portrayals of the income gap is that they show income distribution at a single point in time. But for many households, income changes over time. The low-paying jobs from high school days usually give way to better-paying jobs later in life. Figure 1A shows the percentage of households that moved to a higher income quintile from 1996 to 2005. For example, nearly 58 percent of the households in the lowest income quintile in 1996 moved to a higher category by 2005. The reverse also happens, as shown in Figure 1B. Of those households that were in the top 1 percent in income in 1996, for example, more than 57 percent dropped to a lower income group by 2005. Transfer payments — Payments by governments—such as social security, veterans’ benefits and welfare—to people who do not supply goods, services or labor in exchange for the payments. Wealth — Accumulated assets such as money and/or possessions, often accumulated as a result of saving and investment. 3 w h a t ’ s y o u r questio n ? Income, Education, Employment and Poverty Q. What is the overall education level of the population in the United States? A. The educational attainment in the United States is as follows: Subject Total Population 25 years and over Q. How does income vary with level of education? A. There is a direct correlation between income and level of education. Median Earnings in the Past 12 Months (in 2009 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars) Subject Total 19,989 Less than 9th grade 6.4% Less than high school graduate 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 9.1% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 27,448 High school graduate (includes equivalency) 29.6% Some college or associate’s degree 33,838 Some college, no degree 20.1% Bachelor’s degree 47,853 Associate’s degree 7.4% Graduate or professional degree 63,174 Bachelor’s degree 17.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2008 American Community Survey Graduate or professional degree 10.1% Percent high school graduate or higher 84.5% Q. How does the U.S. Census Bureau determine poverty levels? Percent bachelor’s degree or higher 27.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2008 American Community Survey Q. How does the level of education correlate with the poverty rate in the United States? A. There is an indirect correlation between poverty and levels of education, as the chart reflects: Poverty Rate for the Population 25 Years and Over for Whom Poverty Status is Determined by Educational Attainment Level Less than high school graduate 23.6% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 11.5% Some college or associate’s degree 7.8% Bachelor’s degree 4.1% Graduate or professional degree 3.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2008 American Community Survey A. The Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. If a family’s total income is less than the family’s threshold, then that family and every individual in it is considered in poverty. The official poverty thresholds do not vary geographically, but they are updated for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). The official poverty definition uses money income before taxes and does not include capital gains or noncash benefits (such as public housing, Medicaid and food stamps). ask.census.gov Q. What do the data related to taxation over time tell us regarding tax inequality? A. From 1986 until 2006, the total income tax share for the top 1 percent of income earners has consistently risen, from 25.75 percent in 1986 to 39.89 percent in 2006. www.irs.gov/taxstats/indtaxstats/article/0,,id=133521,00.html#_grp1 Q. What is the average income tax rate? A. According to the Internal Revenue Service’s latest statistics for 2006 individual tax returns, the average tax rate for all taxpayers was 12.60 percent. The average tax rate for the bottom 50 percent income group was 3.01 percent, and the average tax rate for the bottom 99 percent income group was 9.72 percent. www.irs.gov/taxstats/indtaxstats/article/0,,id=133521,00.html#_grp1 4 e c o n o m i c s n apshot Education Pays 1. What is the unemployment rate? Fourth Quarter 2009 The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percent of the labor force. People are classified as unemployed if they are 16 years or older, do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the previous four weeks and are currently available for work. People who were not working and were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been temporarily laid off are also included as unemployed. Source: www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.html#unemp 2. What is the relationship between the unemployment rate and the level of education people have? The relationship is negative or indirect. The less education people have, the more likely they are to be unemployed. 3. In 2008, what percent of high school dropouts were unemployed? 9 percent 4. In 2008, what percent of those with bachelor’s degrees were unemployed? 2.8 percent Q1-’09 Q2-’09 Growth Rate Real Gross Domestic Product –6.4% –0.7% 2.2% 5.9%* Inflation Rate Consumer Price Index –2.2% 1.9% 3.7% 2.6% Civilian Unemployment Rate 8.2% 9.3% 9.6% 10.0% *Second estimate 5. What is the relationship between level of education and median income? The relationship is positive or direct. The more education people have, the higher their median income. 6. Who makes up the labor force? The labor force includes the employed and unemployed who are 16 years of age or older and who are not confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as “not in the labor force.” Source: www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.hlm#nilf Unemployment rate in 2008 Median weekly earning in 2008 2.0 1.7 5.1 5.7 $1,561 Doctoral degree 1,531 Professional degree 2.4 Master’s degree 2.8 Bachelor’s degree 3.7 9.0 Q3-’09 Q4-’09 Associate’s degree Some college, no degree High school graduate Less than a high school diploma 1,233 1,012 757 699 618 453 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Note: Data are 2008 annual averages for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers. Last modified date: Dec. 22, 2009 5 bulleti n b o a r d S t. L o u is L i t t le R o c k For more information about these programs, contact Barbara Flowers at 314-444-8421 or email@example.com. For more information about these programs, contact Billy Britt at 501-324-8368 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Summer School at the Fed: In the News Economics and Children’s Literature June 7-9, 2010: Data and Primary Source Documents June 15, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. | Grades K-5 Wilbur Mills Educational Cooperative, Beebe, Ark. June 10-11 and 15, 2010: Banks: The Rescue, the Recovery, the Regulation June 16-18, 2010: Where Have All the Jobs Gone? Audience: Fifth-grade through high school educators Credit or non-credit Credit will be granted through SIUE. To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/00BE Economics and Children’s Literature July 12, 2010 | 8:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. Audience: K through fifth-grade educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/00EE To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/015E June 28, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. | Grades K-5 Southeast Arkansas Educational Cooperative Monticello, Ark. To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/01AE Cards, Cars and Currency June 22,2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. | Grades 8-12 University of Arkansas | Reynolds Center Fayetteville, Ark To register: http://www.stlouisfed.org/event/01FE Economics and Personal Finance July 13, 2010 | 8:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. July 13, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. | Grades 8-12 Arch Ford Educational Cooperative Plummerville, Ark. Audience: Middle and high school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/00DE To register: http://www.stlouisfed.org/event/020E Insights from the Inside July 21, 2010 | 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m. | Grades 8-12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis—Little Rock Branch Little Rock, Ark. July 15, 2010 | 8:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. Audience: Middle and high school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/00CE To register: http://www.stlouisfed.org/event/021E Insights from the Inside July 22, 2010 | 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m. | Grades 8-12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis—Little Rock Branch Little Rock, Ark. To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/01BE 6 bulleti n b o a r d L o u is v ille M emphis Bank Contacts Little Rock Billy Britt 501-324-8368 For more information about these programs, contact Caryn Rossiter at 502-568-9257 or email@example.com. For more information about these programs, contact Jeannette Bennett at 901-579-4104 or firstname.lastname@example.org. The Great Depression Workshop Economics and Children’s Literature March 30, 2010 | 4:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m. Bellarmine Center for Economic Education 2120 Newburg Rd., Louisville, Ky. July 8, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. Crowley’s Ridge Educational Cooperative Harrisburg, Ark. Audience: High school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/010E Audience: K through fifth-grade educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/014E Memphis Jeannette Bennett 901-579-4104 July 23, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. Northeast Arkansas Educational Cooperative Walnut Ridge, Ark. St. Louis Mary Suiter 314-444-4662 Audience: K through fifth-grade educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/01CE Barb Flowers 314-444-8421 Audience: High school educators To register: http://www.stlouisfed.org/event/022E July 21, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. Great Rivers Educational Cooperative, West Helena, Ark. Scott Wolla 314-444-8624 Insights from the Inside Audience: K through fifth-grade educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/01DE Cards, Cars and Currency April 22, 2010 | 4:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m. Bellarmine Center for Economic Education 2120 Newburg Rd., Louisville, Ky. June 29, 2010 | 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m. | Grades 8-12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis—Louisville Branch Louisville, Ky. Audience: Middle and high school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/012E Economics and Personal Finance June 23-24, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. East Arkansas Community College, Forrest City, Ark. Audience: High school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/016E June 23, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. Northeast Arkansas Educational Cooperative Walnut Ridge, Ark. Audience: High school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/019E August 2, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. Crowley’s Ridge Educational Cooperative Harrisburg, Ark. Audience: High school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/018E Insights from the Inside Sept. 17, 2010 | 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis—Memphis Branch 200 North Main St., Memphis, Tenn. 38103 Audience: Middle and high school educators To register: http://stlouisfed.org/event/017E 7 Louisville Caryn Rossiter 502-568-9257 P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166 prsrt std U.S. POSTAGE PAID ST. LOUIS, MO PERMIT NO. 444 Inside the Vault is written by economic education staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, Mo., 63166. The views expressed are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System. Please let us know what you think about Inside the Vault by taking our online survey https://misweb.cbi.msstate.edu/pgrimes/InsideTheVault f e a t u r e d resources Economics and Children’s Literature Lessons Economics for the elementary grades The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis offers new online children’s literature lessons written by members of the Federal Reserve economic education staff. Each lesson is written in an easy-to-follow format that includes a brief description of the lesson, a listing of the economic concepts to be taught, the appropriate age level, estimated time required, materials needed, objectives and step-by-step procedures for teaching the lesson. Additionally, each lesson is correlated with the National Voluntary Content Standards in Economics and National Standards in Personal Finance. The lessons include active-learning exercises and are downloadable from the web site. Most lessons include SMART Board™ applications, which can also be downloaded from the web site. The lessons can be downloaded at: www.stlouisfed.org/education_resources/lesson_plans_k-5.cfm Economic educators at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis offer workshops on Economics and Children’s Literature. For information contact: Little Rock: Billy Britt, email@example.com Louisville: Caryn Rossiter, firstname.lastname@example.org Memphis: Jeannette Bennett, email@example.com St. Louis: Barbara Flowers, firstname.lastname@example.org