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U. S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR CHILDREN’S BUREAU JULIA C. LATHROP, Chiel INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS A STUDY OF EMPLOYMENT-CERTIFICATE RECORDS IN CONNECTICUT By ROBERT MORSE WOODBURY, Ph. D. INDUSTRIAL SERIES No. 5 Bureau Publication No. 74 WASHINGTON GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1920 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis IL ^ ^ c % 7^ CONTENTS. Paga. Letter of transmittal..................................................... ....... _................. .......... 5 6 Foreword_______. ____ . ____ ______ _____________________________ . . . . Introduction............................ .......... . . , .......................... ..... ... ......... _ _ ................ 7 Extent of child labor in Connecticut_____________________ _______________ 11-15 N umber d children employed_________________ 1. ......................... .......... 11-13 12 Sex.................................. ....... '_____________ _____ •£____ _ ......... -...............- .........- - - - - - ......... ..................................................... . . . 12 Proportion of children at work................................................................._ ___ 13 Industrial history of children......... v. . ............................ ...... ..................................... 16-36 Employment......................................................... 16-26 Industry of first position....... ........ ........................ . ............... ........ ............ Ii6-18 Industry of first position, and sex...... ..................,............................... 17 Industry of first employment, and a g e . ___ _____ ____ _______ 17 Duration of first position.... . _____ § .......................... ...... ..................... 18-19 Duration of first position as affected by industry.............. . . ........... 19 Total number of positions h eld .................................................. ..... ............. 22 Number of positions per child........................... ......... . . ............................ 22 Steadiness of w ork..____ _________ 23 25 Interval between positions................................ ...................................... Unemployment................. 26-36 Pseudo-unemployment............ ; . ........ . ".. .. ...................................... ... 27 Monthly rate of unemployment.................................................... 28-31 Monthly rate of unemployment, and sex................................. ........ 39 Monthly rate of unemployment, and age at commencing work___ 30 Duration of unemployment........................................................................... 32-34 Duration of unemployment, and sex....... ......................................... 32 Duration of unemployment in different parts of work history___ 32 Duration of unemployment, and age at commencing work............. 33 Percentage of work histories spent in unemployment............................. 34 Significance of unemployment among children.............................. . ....... 35 Summary and conclusions.................................................................................. 37 Appendix......................... 41_65 Method of procedure........................................................................... 41-65 Duration of unemployment........................................ 44 Number of cases of pseudo-unemployment.. 1 ........................................... 43 Error in duration of unemployment................................................ ........... 52 Estimates of children occupied at each age............................................... 55 Percentage of children constantly unemployed............................. ........... 56 53 Monthly rates of unemployment................ .................................... ...; ___ Margin of error....... ...................................... 60 GENERAL TABLES. Table 1. Industry of first employment by age at first employment: Number and per cent distribution of boys and girls of specified age at first employment, by industry of first employment............................. . Table 2. Children having specified number of positions, by length of work history, and sex............................................................ ............. . ............ 3 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 69 70 4 CONTENTS. Page. Table 3. Boys and girls in whose work histories specified number of termina tion notices were missing, by length of work history........................ Table 4. Cases of unemployment originating in specified month of work his tory, by length of work history and sex of child................................ Table 5. Children with specified number of cases of unemployment, by length of work history, and s e x ............................. ............... . ........................... Table 6. Children employed at beginning of specified month of work history, according to length of work history, and se x ...................................... Table 7. Number of cases of unemployment in specified month of work his tory per 100 children employed at beginning of the month, by length of work history, and s e x ............................................................ Table 8. Cases of unemployment originating in specified months of work his tory, according to whether terminated or not terminated at the sixteenth birthday, and duration of unemployment, for work his tories from 21 to 24 m onths..... . ............................................................. Table 9. Average percentage of period of unemployment with specified dura tion, by length of work history and sex of c h ild ................... ....... .. Table 10. Percentage of cases of unemployment of each duration, by month of work history in which the unemployment began.............................. Table 11. Cases of unemployment originating in specified month before end of work history.............. .................................................... ........................... Table 12 . Cases of unemployment not terminated at sixteenth birthday, by work-history month of origin....................................................... ......... 72 73 76 78 79 80 82 84 86 86 CHARTS. Chart I. Percentage of children at work at specified age............................... .... Chart II. Percentage of cases of unemployment terminated with specified duration.................................................................................... .................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 43 LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL. U. S. D epartm ent of L a b o r , C h i l d r e n 's B u r e a u , , Washington December 1, 1919. I transmit herewith a report on Industrial Instability of Child Workers, a study of the records of employment certificates issued to children between 14 and 16 years of age in Connecticut. The report was written and the tabulations were planned by Dr. Robert Morse Woodbury, director of statistical research of the Children's Bureau. The plan of securing and using these records as a basis of a report to show the frequent changes of position and the amount of unemployment among young children who have left school for work was an outgrowth of the study of the administration of child-labor laws in Connecticut carried on under the supervision of Mrs. Helen Sumner Woodbury. Thanks are due to the Connecticut State Board of Education for generous cooperation in the work. Respectfully submitted. Sir : J u l ia C. L a t h r o p , Chief. Hon. W. B. W il s o n , Secretary of Labor. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FOREWORD. The following study, based upon employment certificate records in Connecticut, throws light upon important questions regarding child labor- The first question is how soon after passing the fourteenth birthdays do children actually begin to seek employment in a State where 14 is the minimum legal age for employment. The study shows how the proportion of children at work gradually increased from about 7 per ceht in the month following the fourteenth birthday to nearly 32 per cent at 16 years of age. Other questions relate to the way children become adjusted to industrial life. The length of time they stay in their first positions reflects the degree to which the first positions are satisfactory to the children and how well they satisfy their employers. Over half the children stayed six months or longer in their first positions. Girls tended to stay longer in their first positions than boys. As between industries, the textile group showed relatively long periods of employment. On the other hand, the proportion of children leaving their first positions soon after commencing work is an indication of unsatisfactory adjustment. A large proportion—over one-third—left their first positions within three months, and one-half of these within one month. Some children left position after position; a small group, characterized as "unsteady workers ’’ and comprising about 2 per cent, held eight or more positions within less than 24 months of work history. In general the children gradually became adjusted to the disriiptiTTP of work as thek experience increased. This adjustment is shown, for ex ample, in the decline in the monthly rate of becoming unemployed, from 9.1 cases per 100 children at work in the first month after commencing work to only 2.3 after 22 months’ experience. The problem of the unemployed child—that is, the child neither at work nor in school—is a difficult one for the school administration to solve. The Connecticut law requires him to be in school unless he is at work. Without special schools to meet the special needs of working children, it is hard to fit the children who are out of work into the regular school classes, and almost impossible to enforce the school-attendance law so far as concerns them. With compulsory continuation schools for all working children these difficulties would disappear and the unemployed children could be given additional training along thek chosen lines during the periods while they are out of work. The analysis shows that nearly half the children studied had one or more periods of unemployment lasting over a week, the periods lasting on an average two and one-half months, and covering one-tenth of the total work histories of all the children. 6 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS: A STUDY OF EMPLOY MENT-CERTIFICATE RECORDS IN CONNECTICUT. INTRODUCTION. The granting of employment certificates and the consequent accu mulation of records for children between the' ages of 14 and 16 offi cially permitted to work opens up a new field for the investigation of child labor. Hitherto statistics of child labor have been dependent upon the census or upon necessarily limited studies made in particular localities and covering special phases of the subject. But, espe cially with the adoption by States of laws requiring a child to secure an employment certificate for each different position, it has now be come possible to study the extent, character, and duration of em ployment and as many other phases of child labor as are covered by the information obtained in connection with issuing the certificate. One of the first States to require a new certificate for each new position was Connecticut,1 which at the same time (1911) placed the issuing of certificates for the entire State in the hands of the State board of education. This unusual centralization of authority has created in the office of the State board at Hartford a complete file of records covering every child who has taken out a certificate any where in the State since September 1, 1911. Connecticut thus offered exceptional facilities for the study of ehild labor as reflected in its centralized records of the employment histories of children between 14 and 16 years of age. On this ac count it was chosen for a tentative study designed to throw light upon certain points, such as the numbers of positions held and the amount of unemployment, which are not easily obtained in the ordi nary investigation because of the limited time covered. Except for Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, Con necticut is the most densely populated State in the country. Favored by comparatively abundant water power and good shipping facil ities, it is preeminently a manufacturing State. In 1909 it ranked twelfth among the States in value of manufactured products. Its industries are widely diversified; those employing the largest num bers of wage earners in 1910 manufactured foundry and machine } This system was first adopted in Ohio and shortly afterwards in W isconsin, but in neither of these States was the system of issuing certificates so highly centralized that complete records for the entire State can be found in any one place. 7 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. shop products, brass and bronze products, cotton goods, silk and silk goods, firearms and ammunition, woolen goods, cutlery and tools, corsets, and silverware. Not all these industries offer to the same degree opportunities for child labor. But with such a variety of industries it would be ex_ pected that children seeking employment would he able to find places somewhere, and the diversified opportunities might be ex pected to favor, other things being equal, the relatively, early begin ning of work by children. The Connecticut law requiring employment certificates went into effect on September 1, 1911.2 I t prohibits the employment of chil dren under 14 in any mechanical, mercantile, or manufacturing es tablishment, and requires that children under 16 employed in such establishments shall he provided with certificates issued under the authority of the State board of education. By interpretation of the board of education, certificates are required for almost all occu pations in which children are employed except agriculture and do mestic service. Children working on their own account, as, for ex ample, newsboys who sell independently, are also exempted. Never theless, even children seeking work in agriculture or domestic service sometimes get certificates, either because they are under the impres sion that they have to have them, or because employers require them to bring certificates to avoid difficulties; or because it is easier to arrange for leaving school if they first secure certificates of age and education from the educational authorities. A child who goes to work first in an occupation where he has to have a certificate and then changes to a position where certificates are not required often secures a certificate for the later position. A general discussion of the employment-certificate system of Connecticut can be found in a publication of the Children’s Bureau.3 The facts necessary to an understanding of the material here pre sented are as follows: Certificates are issued to children between the ages of 14 and 16 who produce the necessary evidence of age, have fulfilled certain educational and physical requirements, and have the promise of a position. Each child must prove satisfactorily th at he is over 14 years of age, that he is “ able to read with facility, to legibly write simple sentences, and to perform the operations of the fundamental rules of arithmetic with relation both to whole numbers and to fractions” ; and he must ‘ ‘not appear to be physically unfit for employ ment.” 4 Each child must also bring a signed statement from his A cts of 1911, ch. 119. 3 Sumner, H elen L ., and Hanks, E th el E .: Employment-Certificate System in Connecticut. U . S0 Children’s Bureau Publication No. 12, Industrial Series No. 2, Part 1. W ashington, 1915. 4 A cts of 1911, ch. 119, sec. 2. 2 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 9 prospective employer proving that he has actually secured work. If the certificate is granted a copy is sent to the employer with a blank notice of commencement of employment, a blank notice of termination of employment, and a copy of the law dealing with the employment of children. The employer is required to fill out the notice of commencement of employment as soon as the child for whom the certificate is issued begins work. Thus there is a record not only of the issuing of the certificate but also of the actual com mencement of work. In case a certificate is issued and no notice of commencement of work is received, inquiry is made of the employer by the issuing office, and the reason for the failure to send in the notice is ascertained. In some instances the child is found to have changed his mind about going to work. When the child leaves his position the employer is required to send in the termination notice unless the child has reached his sixteenth birthday before leaving the position. A copy of each certificate is kept by the issuing officer, who is an agent of the State board of education, and is sent by him to the State board at Hartford. There the copy is filed alphabetically, and when the child secures another position the copy of his new certificate is dipped to that of his old one. Thus the information on file shows all the positions the child has had from the time he went to work until his sixteenth birthday; it gives the names of his employers, the duration of each position, the intervals between peri ods of employment, and other information, and shows whether or not he was still employed at 16. The group studied includes all children who were bora between September 1, 1897, and September 1, 1898, and who received em ployment certificates before they became 16 years of age. These children passed their fourteenth birthdays at various dates between September 1, 1911, when the new law went into effect, and September 1, 1912, and all of them, therefore, had completed their sixteenth year and the certificate record by September 1, 1914. As a result of this method of selection, the conclusions are not affected by the abnormal labor conditions due to the war but represent the normal flow of children into industry and their normal industrial histories up to the age of 16, under a system of regulation which sets up moderately strict requirements for leaving school to go to work. I Children who worked only during vacation were excluded from the study. During the latter part of the period covered, vacation certificates, obtained in the same way as the regular certificates, ex cept that there was no educational requirement, were given for em ployment during the long summer vacation only. These vacation certificate records were not used. Records which showed that the child had secured a regular certificate but had worked only during https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. the summer vacation were also discarded. If, for example, the record began with a position secured in June, and terminated in September, and showed no other position until the following June, it was inferred that during the interval the child had returned to school. The study was thus confined to children who had definitely left school and entered the industrial world. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis EXTENT OF CHILD LABOR IN CONNECTICUT. NUMBER OF CHILDREN EMPLOYED. The total number of children born in the year ended September 1, 1.898, who received •certificates in Connecticut between their four teenth and sixteenth birthdays, as shown by the records, was 7,147. Since the completeness of the record is obviously dependent upon the effectiveness with which the law is enforced, this figure is prob ably a slight understatement of the number of children in the in dustries covered by the certificate requirement. The bulletin of the Children’s Bureau previously mentioned ex plains the methods of enforcing the Connecticut law. Besides measures employed to enforce the school-attendance law, which indirectly prevents the illegal employment of children, direct en forcement is sought by inspection of work establishments a t inter vals; and children under 14 found a t work by the inspectors are sent back to school, while those between 14 and 16 who have no certificates are sent to the certificate office. In 1913—14, 134 children between 14 and 16 were found by the inspector to be working without employment certificates, 13 children under 14 were found at work, and 29 employers were prosecuted for employing children illegally.5 The total number of children with certificates at work in the establish ments inspected was 3,849. These statistics seem to indicate th at the law was well administered and enforced and th a t violators were vigorously prosecuted. The figures relating to children who re ceived certificates may, therefore, be regarded as a fairly complete statement for Connecticut of the normal amount -of industrial em ployment, between their fourteenth and sixteenth birthdays, of a group of children who were born in a given year.6 These figures do not, of course, represent the number of children between 14 and 16 years of age employed in Connecticut a t any given date. This point is treated in connection with the discussion of the proportion of children employed. 8 Report oTftie Board s f Education offth e S tate of Connecticut, pp. '37.Mid 45. « Bor further discussion of th e enforcement o f the law e n d th e margin of error in th e figures see A ppendix. 11 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 12 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. T a b l e I.- —Age at receiving first employment certificate, by sex: Children born in year ended Sept. 1, 1898. Total children. Age at going to work. A ll ages........................................................................................ 14 years, but under 14 years 6 m onths.......................................... 14 years, but under 14 years 3 m on ths................................... 14 years, but under 14 years 1 m on th.................................... 14 years 1 month, but under 14 years 2 m on ths.................. 14 years 2 month's, but under 14 years 3 m onths................ 14 years 3 months, but under 14 years 6 m onths....................... 14 years 3 months, but under 14 years 4 m onths................ 14 years 4 m onths, but under 14 years 5 m onths................ 14 years 5 m onths, but under 14 years 6 m onths................ 14 years 6 m onths, but under 15 year’s .......................................... 14 years 6 months, but under 14 years 7 m onths................ 14 years 7 m onths, but under 14 years 8 m onths................ 14 years 8 m onths, but under 14 years 9 m onths................ 14 years 9 m onths, but under 14 years 10 m on ths.............. 14 years 10 m onths, but under 14 years 11 m on ths............ 14 years 11 months, but under 15 years.......... ..................... 15 years, but under 15 years 6 m on ths.......................................... 15 years, but under 15 years 1 m on th .................................... 15 years 1 month, but under 15 years 2 m onths.................. 15 years 2 m onths, but under 15 years 3 m onths................ 15 years 3 months j but under 15 years 4 m on ths................ 15 years 4 months, but under 15 years 5.m onths................ 15 years 5 months, but under 15 years 6 m onths................ 15 years 6 months, but under 16 years.......................................... ' 15 years 6 m onths, but under 15 years 7 m onths................ 15 years 7 m onths, but under 15 years 8 m on ths................ 15 years 8 months, but under 15 years 9 m onths................ 15 years 9 months, but under 15 years 10 m onths.............. 15 years 10 m onths, but under 15 years 11 m on ths............ 15 years 11 months, but under 16 y e a rs................................. Boys. Girls. Per Per Per N um cent N um cent N um cent dis dis dis ber. tribu ber. tribu ber- tribu tion. tion. tion. 100.0 49.3 34.6 20.6 8.0 6.1 14.6 5.2 4.8 4.7 24.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.7 18.8 4.3 3.7 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 7.9 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.1 81 1.0 ll .4 30 7,147 3,522 2,476 1,470 571 435 1,046 371 340 335 1,721 312 310 302 287 245 265 1,341 306 264 210 207 183 171 563 141 124 1 4,000 100.0 2,019 50.5 34.6 1,385 20.4 817 323 8.1 245 6.1 634 15.9 228 5.7 5.2 207 5.0 199 23.4 935 164 4.1 4.4 174 4.1 164 155 3.9 3.3 133 3.6 145 732 18.3 3.8 151 4.0 161 112 2.8 2.8 112 2.5 98 98 2.5 314 7.9 1.8 73 77 1.9 1.7 67 44 1.1 1.0 38 .4 15 3,147 1,503 1,091 653 248 190 412 143 133 136 786 148 136 138 132 112 120 609 155 103 98 95 85 73 249 68 47 47 37 35 15 100.0 47.8 34.7 20.7 7.9 6.0 13.1 4.5 4.2 4.-3 25.0 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.8 19.4 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.7 23 7.9 22 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 .5 ' Sex, Table I shows that of the 7,147 children receiving certificates, 4,000 were boys and 3,147 were girls. Employment at these ages was there fore somewhat more common for boys than for girls. - The excess of boys over girls appears at all ages bnt is relatively greatest in the age groups between 14 years and 14 years and 6 months. Age. The ages at which children are first employed and the proportions of children entering employment at the different ages are also shown in Table I. Nearly half secured certificates within six months after passing the fourteenth birthday and half the remainder secured cer tificates before passing the fifteenth birthday. A considerable num ber of children evidently leave school to secure work at the earliest opportunity. This tendency is shown graphically in the rapid rise of the curves (Chart I) immediately after the fourteenth birthday;: it is interesting to note that there is a very slight tendency for the 1curve to rise somewhat more rapidly than usual immediately after 1the fifteenth birthday as well. For the rest, the gradual upward slope of the curve indicates that attainment of a given age is not the https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 13 sole factor in the child’s seeking work. A considerable proportion of children finish the grade which they are in at the time when they become 14. Unpublished figures furnished by the State board of education show that the number of regular certificates issued increases immediately after the close of the school year in June,7as also markedly in September, evidently due to the desire of children to avoid going back to school. During the fifteenth year there is a marked falling off in the number of children seeking work for the first time. C H A R T 1. PERCENTAGE OF C H IL D R E N AT W O R K AT S PE C IF IE D AGE. Per cent The group of children included in the study may be compared with, the estimated number of children of the corresponding ages in the State. The average age of the group studied would have been 14J years on September 1, 1912, and the ages of the children at that date would have varied between 14 and 15. I t is estimated that on September 1,1912, there were in Connecticut a total of 20,010 children 7 The average number of regular certificates issued for three-year period, A ugust, 1915, to July, 1918, were as follows : 827 (August), 1,162 (September), 871 (October), 803 (N ovember), 682 (Decem ber), 748 (January),r 662 (February), 799 (March), 794 (April), 854 (May); 2,327 (June), 1,687 (July). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14 INDUSTRIAL. INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. of this age. The number of children hying in the State who were born in the year September I, 1897, to September 1, 1898—that is, the year of birth corresponding to age 14§ on September 1, 1912—would remain practically constant during the two years covered by the study, though migration and death would affect it slightly. The number of children who took out first certificates in each month of age may, therefore, safely be compared to this basic number to find the approximate proportion of children employed at the different ages. I t is found, as shown in Table II, that the proportion increases from 7.3 per cent in the first month after passing the fourteenth birthday to 31.8 per cent in the last month before the sixteenth birthday- At each age the proportion for boys is somewhat higher than the pro portion for girls—at 14 years of age 8.1 per cent as compared with 6.6 per cent, and at 16, 35 per cent as compared with 28.6 per cent.8 T able I I .—Estimated percentage of children in Connecticut occupied at each age, by sex.1 Per cent of estim ated number occupied. Age. Children. 7.3 10.2 12.3 14.1 15.7 17.3 18.7 : 20.1 21.5 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.7 31.2 31.4 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.8 B oys. 8.1 11.3 13.6 15.8 17.8 19.6 21.1 22.7 24.2 25.'5 26.6 27.9 29.2 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.2 34.1 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 Girls. . 6.6 9.0 10.9 12.3 13.6 14.9 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 ]_ i See A ppendix, Table X II, p. 56. A comparison with the proportion of children in Connecticut 14 and 15 years of age who were employed at the date of the census of 1910 may be made in the following way: In 1910, 6,121 boys and 4,548 girls, or 10,689 children,. 14 and 15 years of age were engaged in gainful occupations. Of this number, 1,468 were reported as newsboys, servants, or engaged in agricultural occupations, for which under the Connecticut law of 1911 employ ment certificates were not required. Assuming, therefore, th at there « ‘See A ppendixfor m ethod o f computation. Adjustm ent has been -made for the error arising from migra tion and other cases of pseudo-unemployment. Also see pp. 60-65 for general discussion of the margin of error. ‘ https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 15 were about 9,221 children in occupations for which certificates were required at the time of this study, approximately 24.5 per cent of the total of 37,680 children 14 and 15 years of age, April 15, 1910, were gainfully occupied in industrial pursuits. A comparable percentage can be derived from the figures of this study by taking the average proportion employed between the fourteenth and sixteenth birth days. This gives approximately 24 per cent (average of 17.3 per cent and 30.7 per cent) gainfully employed in these occupations. Evi dently the proportion gainfully occupied of this group was approxi mately the same as that shown by the census of 1910, since the differ ence, in view of the roughness of the estimate, can not be considered significant. In this connection it should be mentioned that the figures indicate that little or no change in the amount of child employment occurred as a result of the changes in the law from that applicable at the date of the census in 1910. These changes introduced the system of cer tificate and promise of employment for each position for children be tween 14 and 16 years of age, increased the educational requirements, and in a few occupations raised the minimum age of employment to 16 and 18 years of age.9 » A cts of 1911, ch. 119,sec. 2; c h .l2 3 ,s e c .l; ch. 123, sec. 2 as amended b y acts of 1915. eh. 195; ch. 123, sec. 3. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis INDUSTRIAL HISTORY OF CHILDREN. EMPLOYMENT. Industry of first position. The distribution of the children according to the industry in which they were first employed is shown in Table III. Out of 7,147 chil dren, 5,342, or 74.7 per cent, were first employed in manufacturing and mechanical industries; 1,233, or 17.3 per cent, were employed in trade; 147 in transportation; 67 in personal and domestic service; and 78 in other industries; in 280 cases the industry was not reported. Among the manufacturing and mechanical industries the metal in dustry ranked first, with 2,068 children employed; textile manufac ture second, with 1,498; and the clothing industry third, with 616 children. This distribution by industries probably corresponds roughly to the opportunities open to children in Connecticut. I t would be of interest to show the exact processes at which the children were employed. The actual work done may be approximately of the same character in all the industries considered, that is, it may consist largely in run ning errands, rendering clerical assistance, or acting as more or less unskilled helpers; but the employment-certificate records do not give details as to the actual work done. Such details would be of especial value as showing whether the occupations were in general merely children’s work, or whether they might eventually lead to perma nent positions. T able III —Industry of first employment, by sex: Number and per cent distribution of boys and girls,' by industry of first employment. Children. Industry of first em ploym ent. B oys. Girls. Per cent Per cent Per eent Number. distribu Number. distribu Number. distribu tio n . tion . tion. A ll industries............................. . ........... 7,147 100.0 4,000 100.0 3,147 100.0 Manufacturing and mechanical industries. 5,342 74.7 2,838 71.0 2,504 79.6 M etal.............................................. . T ex tiles........................................................ Clothing........................................................ Food products............................................ Wood products................ .......................... Leather goods. . . . . . . . . . u ............ -. — Cbem icalproducts..................: ................ Bone products.......... .................................. Clay products.............................................. Rubber goods............................................. Electrical goods.......................................... Printing..................................... .................. Other.................................. .......................... 2,068 1,498 616 107 177 70 62 164 42 108 237 92 101 28.9 21.0 8.6 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.9 2.3 0.6 1.5 3.3 1.3 1.4 1,404 663 185 46 45 48 24 85 29 48 117 72 72 35.1 16.6 4.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.1 0.7 1.2 2.9 1.8 1.8 664 835 431 61 132 22 38 79 13 60 120 20 29 21.1 26.5 13.7 1.9 4.2 0.7 1.2 2.5 0.4 1.9 3.8 0.6 0.9 Trade..................................................................... Transportation................................................... Personal and dom estic service..................... Other..................................................................... N ot reported....................................................... 1,233 147 67 78 280 17.3 2.1 0.9 1.1 3.9 711 143 39 66 203 17.8 3.6 1.0 1.7 5.1 522 4 28 12 77 16.6 0.1 0.9 0.4 2.4 16 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 CONNECTICUT. IV .'—Industry of first employment, by age at first employment: Number and per cent distribution of children of specified age at first employment, by industry of first employment certificate. Table Children at first employm ent aged— 14-14J Total. Industry of first em ploy m ent. 14-141 14J-16 14J-14J 14J-15 15-15J 15J-16 Per Per Per Per Per Per N um cent N um cent N um cent N um cent N um cent um cent disdisdisdisdis- Nber. disber. tribu- ber. tribu- ber. tribu- ber. ber. tributributribution. tion. tion. tion. tion. tion. A ll industries............ . 3,522 100.0 2,476 100.0 1,046 100.0 1,721 100.0 1,341 100.0 Manufacturing and mechanical industries............ 2,671 100.0 75.8 1,904 76.9 767 73.3 1,282 74.5 978 73.0 411 73.0 29.2 21.1 9.1 1.5 2.7 1.3 0.6 2.6 0.6 1.3 3.6 1.2 1.0 709 547 243 35 72 35 13 76 14 27 94 24 15 28.6 22.1 9.8 1.4 2.9 1.4 0.5 3.1 0.6 1.1 3.8 1.0 0.6 320 197 78 18 22 11 7 14 8 18 34 19 21 30.6 18.8 7.5 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 1.8 2.0 509 361 139 27 31 17 14 36 7 32 50 24 35 29.6 21.0 8.1 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.8 2.1 0.4 1.9 2.9 1.4 2.0 356 282 114 23 38 5 21 33 8 19 42 17 20 26.5 21.0 8.5 1.7 2.8 0.4 1.6 2.5 0.6 1.4 3.1 1.3 1.5 174 111 42 4 14 2 7 5 5 12 17 8 10 30.9 19.7 7.5 0.7 2.5 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 2.1 3.0 1.4 1.8 611 76 17.3 2.2 425 55 17.2 2.2 186 21 17.8 2.0 301 32 17.5 1.9 227 27 16.9 2.0 94 12 16.7 2.1 40 29 95 1.1 0.8 2.7 31 13 48 1.3 0.3 1.9 9 16 47 0.9 1.5 4.5 12 24 70 0.7 1.4 4.1 11 18 80 0.8 1.3 6.0 4 7 35 0.7 1.2 6.2 M etal................................. 1,029 T extiles............................ 744 Clothing........................... 321 Food products................ 53 94 Wood products.............. Leather goods................. 46 Chemical products........ 20 Bone products................ 90 22 Clay products................. Rubber goods.................. 45 Electrical goods.............. 128 Printing........................... 43 Other................................. 36 Trade........................................ Transportation...................... Personal and domestic service................................... Other........................................ N ot reported........................... 563 In du stry o f fir s t 'position, an d sex .—Table III shows that the type of first employment varies considerably with the sex of the child worker. The per cent of boys as well as the actual number found in the metal industriés is much larger than that of girls, although the group of girls in these industries numbers 664. More girls than boys, in absolute figures a s. well as relatively, were employed in textile manufacture and in the clothing industries, the latter including corset manufacture, hat making, etc. Owing to the preponderance of girls in the textile and clothing industries especially, relatively more girls than boys were employed in the group of manufacturing and mechani cal industries as a whole. On the other hand, relatively more boys were employed in trade, transportation, and in personal and domes tic service; thè number employed in the last-mentioned group is small, and probably includes but a small proportion of the children actually at work in personal and domestic service, since employment certificates are not required for housework. In du stry o f fir s t em ploym ent, an d age .—The industries chosen by children entering employment at different ages are shown in Table IY. There is evidently very little difference in the choices of the 175086°—20---- 2 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 18 IN D U S T R IA L IN S T A B I L I T Y OE C H IL D W O R K E R S . children or in the opportunities open to them at different ages. The slight differences which appear are probably without special signifi cance. Duration of first position. The length of time the child stays in one position is a subject of considerable interest. To avoid the difficulties of interpretation arising from the varying ages at which the children commenced work and the varying lengths of time between the commencement of work and the sixteenth birthdays, the duration of employment is shown only for children whose work histories lasted at least 21 months, and only for the first positions held by them. The duration of first posi tion is shown in Table V. I t is interesting to note that nearly three-tenths of the children kept this first position longer than 21 months. The girls showed a greater tendency to remain in their first positions than the boys—S3 per cent of the former, as compared with only 27 per cent of the latter, stayed with their first employers over a year and nine months. The table also shows a strong tendency of an early change from the first position, whether due to the child’s own fault or occurring because he has found better opportunity for employment. Over one-third of the children lef t their first positions within three months and over half had left by the ninth month of work. Again the aver ages are affected by the greater stability of girl workers. Only I f f per cent of the girls left the first position within the first month, while the per cent of boys is 18. Four-tenths of the boys, as contrasted with three-tenths of the girls, left within three months. And over one-half of the boys had left before the end of the sixth month, while the percentage of girls who had left did not equal one-half until after slightly over nine months of work. T able V.—-Number and per cent distribution of children with work histories of 11 to 24 months, according to duration of first position. A ll children. Duration of first position. Boys. Girls. Per cent Per cent Per cen t Number. distribu Number. distribu Number. distribu tion. tion. tion. T o ta l......................................................... 2,476 100.0 1,385 100.0 1,091 100.0 Less tlian 3 m on ths........................................... 852 34.4 530 38.3 322 29.5 Under 1 m onth........................................... 1 m onth but under 2 ................................. 2 m onths but under 3 ............................... 385 273 194 15.5 11.0 7.8 249 170 111 18.0 12.3 8.0 136 103 83 12.5 9.4 7.6 3 months but under 6 ..................................... i 6 months but under 9 ....................................... 9 months but under 1 2 .................................... 12 months but under 15.............. .................... 15 months but under 18................................. - 326 187 136 103 65 44 734 29 13.2 7.6 5.5 4.2 2.6 1.8 29.6 1.5 191 102 74 47 30 22 373 16 13.8 7.4 5.3 3.4 2.5 1.6 26.9 1.2 135 85 62 56 35 22 361 13 12.4 7.8 5.7 5.1 3.5 2.0 83.1 1 .2 21 months and over............ .............................. N ot reported....................................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 19 D u ra tio n o f fir s t p o sitio n as affected by in d u stry .—The character of the industry in which the child is employed is likely to have some influence upon the duration of employment. The nature of the work may be such that not all the applicants who are given positions can satisfy the requirements; or perhaps the boys and girls who accept positions in certain industries do not like the work. Table VI shows that the metal, textile, and clothing industries and trade are the chief industries employing children in the group under consideration. According to this table, the textile industry seems to have the greatest success in keeping the children permanently. Forty-six per cent of the children whose first position was in textile industries were still in the same position one year and nine months later. This percentage is to be contrasted with 28 per cent in trade, 23 per cent in the metal industries, and 25 per cent in clothing manufacture. Further evi dence showing the same tendency is the fact th at only 22 per cent of the children employed in the textile industry on their first positions left within the first three months, as contrasted with 36 per cent in trade, 39 per cent in metal industries, and 39 per cent in clothing manufacture. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Table VI .—Number and per cent distribution of children with work histories of 21 to 24 months whose first employment was in specified industry, according to duration of first employment, and sex. g Children employed in— Total. Metal. Textile. Clothing. N ot reported. All other. Duration of first employment and sex. || N um ber. cent dis- N um ber. Per cent distion. tion. Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Num cent um cent um cent um cent um cent N um cent N um cent disdisdis- Nber. dis- Nber. dis- Nber. dis- Nber. disber. tribu- ber. tributributribu- ber. tributributribution. tion. tion. tion. tion. tion. tion. 100.0 A ll children.............................................. 2,476 100.0 1,904 100.0 709 100.0 547 100.0 243 100.0 405 100.0 425 100.0 99 100.0 .48 852 34.4 634 33.3 274 38.6 118 21.6 94 38.7 148 36.5 153 36.0 55 55.6 - 10 20.8 385 273 194 15.5 11.0 7.8 266 209 159 14.0 11*0 8.4 124 90 60 17.5 12.7 8.5 41 36 41 7.5 6.6 7.5 40 36 18 16.5 14.8 7.4 61 47 40 15.1 11.6 9.9 84 45 24 19.8 10.6 5.6 28 17 10 28.3 17.2 10.1 7 2 1 14.6 4.2 2.1 326 187 136 103 65 13.2 7.6 5.5 4.2 2.6 256 147 108 78 56 56 34 32 25 16 8 253 5 10.2 6.2 5.9 4.6 2.9 1.5 46.3 .9 28 20 15 11 7 5 60 3 11.5 8.2 6.2 4.5 2.9 2.1 24.7 1.2 66 31 18 18 16 11 95 2 55 16.3 7.7 32 4.4 24 4.4 20 7 4.0 4 5 2.7 23.5 120 .5 9 12.9 7.5 5.6 4.7 1.6 1.2 28.2 2.1 6 12.5 1 2.1 1 .1 2.1 569 17 15.0 8.7 6.1 3.4 2.4 2.1 22.7 1.0 9.1 8.1 3.0 5.1 1.0 29.6 1.2 106 62 43 24 17 15 161 7 9 8 3 734 29 13.4 7.7 5.7 4.1 2.9 2.1 29.9 .9 17 1 17.2 1.0 28 2 58.3 4.2 1,385 100.0 997 ioao 497 100.0 230 100.0 59 100.0 211 100.0 275 100.0 80 100.0 33 100.0 530 38.3 373 37.4 203 40.8 58 25.2 28 47.5 84 39.8 108 39.3 43 53.8 6 18.2 249 170 111 18.0 12.3 8.0 162 125 86 16.2 12.5 8.6 95 69 39 19.1 13.9 7.8 22 16 20 9.6 7.0 8.7 12 11 5 20.3 18.6 8.5 33 29 22 15.6 13.7 . 10.4 62 31 15 22.5 11.3 5.5 21 13 9 26.3 16.3 11.3 4 1 1 12.1 3.0 3.0 191 102 74 47 30 13.8 7.4 5.3 3.4 2.2 140 79 53 35 24 14.0 7.9 5.3 3.5 2-4 78 42 32 16 11 15.7 8.5 6.4 3.2 2-2 24 14 11 11 10.4 6.1 4.8 4.8 2-2 5 8.5 13.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 33 15 9 15.6 7.1 4.3 3.3 3.3 40 15 17 14.5 -5.5 6.2 2.9 1.5 6 15.2 3 7.5 10.0 3.8 5.0 1,3 5 1 1 1 1 3.0 1 3. Ó Less than 3 m onths.............................................. B o y s ............................................................ Less than 3 m onths.......... .................................. 15 months but under 18..................... ................ https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 7 4 1 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS, A llother. Manufacturing and mechanical industries. A ll children. 18 months but under 2 1 .. 21 months and over.......... N ot reported....................... G i r l s .. . .................... 22 373 16 1,091 1.6 26.9 1.2 100.0 19 265 9 907 1.9 26.6 .9 100.0 Less than 3 m onths.......... 322 29.5 261 28.8 Under 1 m onth........... 1 month but under 2. 2 months but under 3 136 103 83 12.5 9.4 7.6 104 84 73 11.5 9.3 8.0 135 85 62 56 35 22 361 13 12.4 7.8 5.7 5.1 3.2 2.0 33.1 1.2 116 68 55 43 32 12.8 7.5 3 months but under 6 .. 6 months but under 9.1. 9 months but under 12. 12 months but under 15 15 months but under 18. 18 months but under 21, 21 months and over___ N ot reported-.______ 20 304 8 6.1 •4.7 3.5 2.2 33.5 .9 C O N N E C T IC U T , https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 22 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY QT CHILD WORKERS. Total number of positions held. The total number of positions held by the 7,147 children was 14,826. Of these positions, 8,867 were held by 4,000 boys, and 5,959 by 3,147 girls. The boys had relatively more positions than the girls—on the average 2.2 each for the boys, as compared with 1.9 each for the girls—but it must be remembered th at in general the boys commenced work at slightly earlier ages and therefore had somewhat longer periods of employment history than the girls. Number of positions per child. The number of positions held by any one child ranged from 1 to 15. One child had held 15 positions; and two, 13 positions each. In all, 21 children had each held 10 or more positions; 965 had each held 4 or more positions. Since none of the records covers a period of over two years, it is obvious that many of the children shift about considerably. In some cases this tendency to shift may indicate mental or physical defects, but in others' it may indicate superior ability or energy, either or both of which will cause the child to advance rapidly. Since the records give no information as to wages or reason for leaving positions, it is impossible to tell how much of the shifting is desirable and how much undesirable. Table V II.—Boys and girls holding specified number of positions. N um ber of positions. Children. B eys. 1 Girls. A ll............................. 7,147 4,000 ‘ 3,147 1 ......................................... 2 ......................................... 3 ...........; ............................ 4 ......................................... 5 ......................................... 6 ......................................... 7 ......................................... 8 ......................................... 9 ......................................... 10........................ ............... 3,367 1,863 952 474 247 114 58 34 17 12 2 4 2 1,759 1, 026 ; 569 305 156 80 46 25 14 11 2 4 2 1,608 837 383 169' 91 34 12 9 3 1 12 .......................... 15....................................... 1 1 .. Light can be thrown on the relative number of positions held by considering only the children who worked the longer periods. Table V III gives the number of children who worked for from 21 to 24 months before their sixteenth birthdays. Of this group of children 33.8 per cent had only one position, 25.4 per cent had two positions, 17.7 per cent had three positions, and 23.1 per cent, or nearly onefourth, had four or more positions. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 CONNECTICUT, T able V III. — Number and per cent distribution of boys and girls holding specified number of positions: Children with work histories from 21 to 24 months. Children. N um ber of positions. Boys. AH..................................... 2,476 100.0 1,385 1 .................................................... 2 . ........ ................................... 836 629 439 249 160 69 39 21 15 12 . 33.8 25.4 17.7 10.1 6.5 2.8 1.6 .8 .6 .5 432 338 242 154 99 45 30 14 13 11 4 2 .2 .1 4 2 4 .......................................... 6 .............................................. 8 .............................................. 10........................................................................... 11................................... 13..................... ,•.................. 14....................................... Girls. Per cent Per cent Per cent Number. distribu Number. distribu Number. distribu tion. tion. tion. 1 0) i 100.0 j 31.2 24.4 17.5 11.1 7.1 . 3.2 2.2 1.0 .9 .8 1,091 100.0 404 291 197 95 61 24 9 7 2 1 37.0 26.7 18.1 8.7 5.6 2.2 .8 .6 .2 .1 .1 i Less th an one-tenth of 1 per cent. Steadiness of work. In Table IX an attempt has been made .to classify children on the basis of their steadiness or unsteadiness at work. For this purpose only the children who had work histories of from 21 to 24 months were taken. This procedure eliminates the difficulty which would arise in attempting to classify children who had worked only short periods, and, further, it insures that the group of unsteady workers shall include only children who repeatedly changed positions. Children who had b.ut one position during their entire work histories of 21 to 24 months may be classed as steady workers; those who held eight or more positions during this period are designated as “ unsteady” ; while those who had either two or three positions and the group holding from four to seven positions are intermediate classes. This classification is based merely upon what happened to the children. Obviously, the reason for permanence in the first posi tion or for changes of position may lie in part in the industrial situation and in the personal preferences of the children, as well as in any characteristic steadiness or unsteadiness at work. Indeed, it is only in the groups where the shifts of position are repeated that there is reason to think personal characteristics of the children, such as restlessness or inability to perform work satisfactorily, are the underlying reasons for the shifting from job to job. The first group represents the extent to which children entering the industrial world secured suitable positions, such as were satis factory to them, and in which they performed acceptable work. It includes children who had really good positions and did not care to change, as well as those who did not have such good jobs but could secure nothing better. I t includes good workers who were in as https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 24 IN D U S T R IA L IN S T A B IL IT Y OF C H IL D W O R K E R S . good positions as they could command as well as those who remained in the first position taken because they had no ambition to secure anything better. The group does not include the restless or the unsatisfactory workers, who would doubtless leave or be dismissed from their first positions before the end of 21 months. Slightly over one-third of the children classified were in the group of steady workers. The higher percentage of the girls (37 per cent) than of the boys (31 per cent) who were in this group may be explained in part by the lack of ambition of the girls, owing to the fact that presumably they do not expect to remain in the industrial world, in part by the difference in general mental attitude characterizing the sexes at this period, and perhaps in part by the smaller variety of occupations open to girls than to boys. In Class 2, 1,068 or over 43 per cent of the children were found. This group represents perhaps the more usual experience. Children enter the industrial world with no experience and often no assistance in choosing a job. Many of them get into work which they do not like or which is not suited to them. Some take positions which are only temporary. Some are alert and ambitious and soon better themselves either in wages or in character of work. The percentage of girls who were in this group, as well as in the first group, was higher than that of boys, though the difference between the sexes is much less marked in the second group. Class 3, those who held from four to seven positions, included 517 or 20.9 per cent of the children. The percentage in this group was greater for the boys than for the girls in contrast to the preceding groups, 23.7 per cent for the boys as compared with 17.3 per cent of the girls having held from four to seven positions. The group probably includes some children who have not been so fortunate as those of class 2 in the positions secured, as well as some who have been dis missed by their employers on account of unsatisfactory work or for other reasons. The greater unsteadiness of the boy workers appears again in this group. Fifty-five (2.2 per cent) of the children were found in the group classed as “ unsteady,” that is, children who held eight or more positions in the space of 21 to 24 months. The boys had a larger percentage of unsteady workers than the girls, 3.2 per cent as com pared with 0.9 per cent. This group is largely made up of restless and unsatisfactory workers, ihcluding some who are doubtless mentally or physically below par. Most of the children in this class undoubtedly had some characteristic incapacity for steady work which showed itself in a constant shifting of employment. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 C O N N E C T IC U T . Table IX .—Number and per cent distribution of boys and girls by average duration of position: Children with work histories 21 to 24 months. Children. . Average duration of position. Boys. Girls. N um ber. Per cent distri bution. N um ber. Per cent distri bution. N um ber. Per cent distri bution. A ll classes........................................................................ 2,476 100.0 1,385 100.0 1,091 100.0 1 position only: 1 year or over.............................................. 2 or 3 positions: 6 m onths but less than 1 year................ 4 to 7 positions: 3 m onths but less than 6......................... 8 or more positions: Less than 3 m onths........................... 836 1,068 517 55 33.8 43.1 20.9 2.2 . 432 580 328 45 31.2 41.9 23.7 3.2 404 488 189 10 37.0 44.7 17.3 .9 Further evidence that boys shift relatively more than girls is obtained by comparing for all the children employed the total number of positions terminated with the total number of months when they were actually at work. The rate of termination of positions as thus found can be used to compare the relative steadiness of work in the two sexes.1® The total number of positions terminated was 9,057—5,718 held by the boys and 3,339 held by the girls. The total number of months of work time, after all periods of unemployment are subtracted, was 99,120—-54,630 months for the boys and 44,490 for the girls. In the entire group a position was terminated for every 10.9 months of work. For the boys a position was terminated on the average for every 9.6 months of actual work, while for the girls a position was terminated on the average for every 13.3 months of work. The boys show a decidedly greater tendency to shift than the girls. Interval between positions. The interval between positions was defined as the period between the date of the termination notice of one position and the date of the beginning notice of the next. The records showed 7,679 intervals coming clearly under this definition. There were also on the records a number of terminated positions not followed by any other position before the sixteenth birthday. I t is estimated that 595 of these were cases of true unemployment lasting until the record ceased with the sixteenth birthday.11 This gives a total of 8,274 intervals. In the provisions for the enforcement of the certificate requirements a certain leeway is allowed. A child is permitted to work one week on the parent’s copy of his first certificate. Within a week, however, a new certificate must be secured for the new position. The parent’s copy is clearly marked “ Not good for employer longer than one week.” io This figure can not be used as an average duration of positions but is probably an understatement of it, since m any even of the first positions held by the children had not terminated at the end of the work histories. n For the reasons w hy an estim ate is necessary, and for the basis of the estim ate, see p. 27, and A ppendix, pp. 41-53. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 26 IN D U S T R IA L IN S T A B IL IT Y OF C H IL D W O K K E R S. Thus the record may show an interval of one week or less between positions when perhaps there has been really no break at all in the continuity of the child’s employment, or he has secured his second position within a few days after leaving the first. Intervals of less than one week, therefore, are not counted as cases of unemployment. There were 2,948 of these intervals. In addition, 148 cases were found in which a termination notice between two beginning notices was missing from the record and consequently the interval between positions was not reported.12 These were classified, in lieu of satis factory evidence to the contrary, as changes in positions without intervening unemployment—a procedure which seems the more justified since on the one hand in many if not in most of these cases the interval between positions was less than one week and on the other it gives a more conservative statement of the amount of unemploy ment. In these 3,096 eases there was practically no unemployment; the children either went from one position to another directly, or else were able to secure a second position very soon after leaving the first. To find the proportion of cases where the termination of a position is followed by the acceptance of another position within a week’s time, the number of cases in which there was no unemployment between positions should be compared with the total number of intervals. Of the total of 8,274 cases, in some 3,096, or 37.4 per cent, the children found other positions with intervals of less than a week. The percentages for boys and for girls were almost exactly the same, 37.2 and 37.9, respectively. UNEMPLOYMENT. Unemployment as used in the following discussion is defined as a period of one week or over between the date of a termination notice and that of the next beginning notice or the sixteenth birthday; and its duration is measured by the period between termination and be ginning notices. Of the total of 7,147 children, over half, 3,639, had no periods of unemployment. Of the remaining children, 2,035 had only one period, 895 had two, 341 had three, and 237 had four or more periods each. But these proportions are not of especial significance since many of the work histories were relatively short. For the longer and therefore more significant work histories the proportions are given in Table X. Of the 2,476 children who went to work between the ages of 14 and 14f years, 1,021, or 41,2 per cent, had not had any period of unemployment up to the time their work records ended. Relatively there were fewer boys in this group than girls; or, stating it in other words, a larger proportion of the boys 12 No cases were found of the omission of a beginning notioe between two termination notices. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27 CONNECTICUT. than of the girls was unemployed at least once. Moreover, 121 of the boys, or 8.7 per cent, had four or more periods of unemployment each, as contrasted with 37, or 3.4 per cent, of the girls. T able X .—Boys and girls with work histones o f 21 to 24 months, having specified number o f periods o f unemployment. Children. Number of periods of unemployment. Number. Total............................................. None............................... 1.............................................. 6............................................ 9 ............................... 10 ............................... Boys. Girls. Percent Per cent Per cent distri Number. distri Number. distri bution. bution. bution. 2,476 100.0 1,385 100.0 1,091 1,021 692 422 183 90 34 41.2 27.9 17.0 7.4 3.7 1.4 519 381 250 114 64 26 37.5 27.5 18.1 8.2 4.6 1.9 502 311 172 69 26 8 19 10 .8 .4 18 9 1.3 .6 1 1 .1 .1 3 .1 2 .1 1 .1 1 100.0 > 46.0 28.5 15.8 6.3 2.4 .7 1 1 . . . . ........................ 1 1 Pseudo-unemployment. A difficulty with the interpretations of the figures for unemploy ment as defined above is that the cases of apparent unemployment which were still unterminated a t the sixteenth birthday may or may not have been true unemployment. During the course of the investi gation, it was found that on a few records notations had been made, such as “ Returned to school/’ “ Sent to reform school.” But such entries were more or less accidental and confined to the few cases in which the issuing officer knew and recorded the report of a schoolattendance officer on the case. For only a small proportion of the children who terminated their employment for these or similar reasons would such entries have been made. Most of the children who died, who left the State, or who went to work in some occupation that did not require a certificate, as well as most of those who returned to school, would appear on the records merely as having terminated employment and as “ not employed” a t their sixteenth birthdays. Since it was impossible to determine which children of those whose records indicated they were not employed at 16 were really unemployed and which had left the State, etc., no specific cases could be excluded; but the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment has been estimated by a method described in the appendix ; and the figures given in the following pages for unemployment rates have been corrected to elim inate the error arising from the inclusion of these cases of pseudo unemployment.13 13 See A ppendix, pp. 41-53. The uncorrected figures are also given, in the A ppendix. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 28 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. The complete analysis of pseudo-unemployment referred to indi cates that cases of pseudo-unemployment are somewhat more likely to occur toward the sixteenth birthday, and that they form an increas ing percentage of the cases of apparent unemployment that occur as the children approach 16. A plausible explanation of this lies in the probability that there is greater difficulty in enforcing the certificate requirements as the children grow older and can more easily persuade employers th at they have already passed 16 years of age. They have an advantage in doing this, since the restrictions on hours are removed for workers over 16 and they can therefore secure higher wages. There are also a few cases of unemployment even among those which were terminated before the sixteenth birthday which are not true unemployment. But while it is possible to estimate the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment which resulted in the children’s, appearing as not employed at 16, there is no method of estimating the number of cases of unemployment terminated before the sixteenth birthday which were due to the same causes. In a few cases, for example, a child who had been at work for a short time might discover that he did not like work as well as school; if he returned to school but quit and went to work again before he was 16 the interval between the termination notice of one position and the beginning notice of the next would appear on the record in exactly the same form as a period of true unemployment of the same length. The number of such cases, however, is probably small, since children who worked only during vacations were excluded and children who lose school time fall behind in their grades and are not apt to return to school. The same effect on the record would occur if a child left the State for a time and then returned and took out a new certificate before his sixteenth birthday. No correction can be made for these cases. I t is realized, therefore, that the definition of unemployment as given above results in the inclusion of a few periods during which children, though not at work according to the records, were not in the ordinary sense unemployed. Monthly rate of unemployment. The rate of unemployment, or the number of new cases of unemploy ment per 100 children at work at the beginning of the month, is shown in the following table for the different months of work history. The rates are found by dividing the number of cases of unemployment which occurred in a month by the number of children at work at the beginning of the month and whose work histories lasted through the month. The monthly rate of becoming unemployed decreases from 9.1 per cent in the first month of work history to 5.9 in the fourth, 5.4 in the seventh, and 4.7 in the thirteenth—i.e., after 3, 6, and 12 months https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 29 CONNECTICUT. of work respectively—and finally to 2.3 in tlie twenty-third month, or after 22 months of work history. T able X I.—Monthly rate of unemployment, by sex: Number of new cases of unemploy ment in specified month of work history per 100 children at work at beginning of month. Month of work history. Cases of unem ploym ent per 100 at work at beginning of month. iren. Boys. Girls. F irst.................. Second.............. T hird................. F ou rth.......... F ifth .................. 9.1 7.7 7.5 5.9 5.2 10.1 8.8 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.9 6.2 6.7 5.2 3.9 Sixth.................. S eventh............ E ig h th .............. N in t h ......... T en th ........ . 5.0 o. 4 5.3 5.3 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.0 5.8 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.5 3.6 E le v en th .......... T w elfth ............ T hirteenth___ Fourteenth___ Fifteenth.......... 4.6 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.2 5.4 4.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.1 Sixteenth......... Seventeeth___ E ighteenth___ N ineteeth......... T w en tieth .. . . . 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.4 4.8 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.5 2.9 2.8 3.8 2.9 T w en ty-first... Twenty-second. T w enty-third. . 2.9 2.4 2.3 3.7 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.0 The trend of these percentages is what one might expect from a priori considerations. I t would be expected that children just be ginning work would in many instances not find immediately posi tions which suited them or to which they were suited. With ex perience they would not only tend to gravitate to suitable positions, but would become more reconciled to the discipline to which they find themselves subjected in industry as well as in school. The longer they remain in industry the more they become accustomed to regular routine, and usually they gradually settle down to steady work. I t should be remembered in this connection that these figures do not represent all changes of positions, but exclude all those in which a change was made with an interval of less than one week, and hence practically all cases in which children changed because of definite offers of better positions. They therefore include only cases in which the child either quit voluntarily without knowing what he was going to do next or was discharged because of inefficiency or because he was no longer needed—many positions are temporary or seasonal. The more experience children have the less likely they are to leave their positions of their own volition before securing new ones. From the employer’s point of view, on the other hand, chil https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 30 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. dren probably become more and more satisfactory in their work and more and more.useful. Both these causes of unemployment, there fore—voluntary leaving of positions by children before they have secured others and dismissals on account of unsatisfactory work— tend to decrease as the length of work history increases. Monthly rate of unemployment, and sex.—The monthly rate of be coming unemployed is higher at all periods of work history for boys than for girls. In the first month of work, 10.1 per cent of the boys became unemployed as contrasted with 7.9 per cent of the girls. After three months of experience, the rates have fallen, respectively, to 6.4 and 5.2, but the boys still show a greater tendency to be un employed than the girls. In the thirteenth month, the rates are 5.5 and 3.8; in the twenty-third, they are 2.4 and 2, respectively. This showing is similar to that already brought out, that the boys have a larger proportion of unsteady workers than the girls. These figures also show that the greater shifting in employment of the boys is due both to greater readiness to change positions and to more cases of unemployment. The difference in the mental attitude to their work and in the psychology of the two sexes may account for this difference in rate. I t may also be suggested that the boys’ occupations are frequently quite different from the occupations of men, and that their work often does not lead to anything better. Again, some positions may involve too heavy work, or in some the employers may expect too much of them. All these would be causes of discontent and restless ness. The boys have, too, a much greater variety of work open to them. The girls’ occupations, on the other hand, do not differ so much from those of older girls, and they would be, therefore, less likely to be restless and dissatisfied with their work. Monthly rate of unemployment, and age at commencing work.—An analysis by age at going to work shows that the monthly rate of un employment is somewhat higher in corresponding months of work history for children who began work when 14 but less than 15 years of age than for children who began work when 15 but less than 16 years of age. The number of cases of unemployment per 100 chil dren employed at the beginning of the month, originating in each month of work history up to the tenth, is shown in Table X II. Com paring these rates month by month, 9.4 per cent of the children who started work between the fourteenth and fifteenth birthdays became unemployed within a month after they had commenced work as con trasted with 8.3 per cent of the children who began work between the fifteenth and sixteenth birthdays. In the tenth month of work history the percentages were 5 for the younger group as contrasted with 3.1 for the group commencing work at the later age. The difference is due probably in part to the fact th at the children who https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 31 CONNECTICUT. began work at the later age are somewhat more mature and are there fore less likely to change positions before securing new ones and, at the same time, are better able to satisfy their employers. Table X II.— Monthly rate of unemployment, by age at going to work: Number of new cases of unemployment in specified month o f work history per 100 children at work at beginning of month, separately for children aged 14 but under 15, and children aged 15 but under 16 at first commencing work. Cases of unem ploy m ent per 100 at work at beginning of month. Month o f work history. Month of work history. Children beginning work aged 14 but under 15. Children beginning work aged 15 but under 16. 9.4 8.1 8.0 5.9 5.5 8.3 6.4 6.4 5.6 4.2 F irst.................................. Second..... ........ ..................... T hird...................................... Fourth.................................... ; F ifth ....................................... Cases of unem ploy m ent per 100 a t work at beginning of m onth. Children beginning work aged 14 but under 15. E ighth.......... ............. 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.0 Children beginning work aged 15 but under 16. a. 2 4.0 3.7 4.1 3.1 A comparison of the difference between the rates for the two age groups and the rates for the different periods of work history shows clearly that length of industrial experience is a factor as well as age in the rate of unemployment. In both age groups the rate of unemploy ment decreases rapidly as the length of work history, that is, as the children’s experience, increases. In the early months of work history, for all children under 16, industrial experience appears to be a more important factor than age at beginning work, since the monthly rate of unemployment shows a much greater variation with the differ ent lengths of work history than with the different ages. I t scarcely needs to be emphasized that the initial monthly rate of becoming unemployed of 9.1 per 100 children is very high. A better idea of the amount of unemployment which this represents may be gained by expressing it in terms of the percentage of children constantly unemployed. If, in a group of children, 9.1 per cpnt of those at work became unemployed in each month of work history, the number of children unemployed would gradually increase until the number of cases of unemployment ending in a month equaled the number of new cases th at began. According to the duration of periods of unemployment found for the group studied, a rate of 9,1 per cent would mean, after the initial period of an increasing pro portion of children unemployed, a constant percentage of unemploy ment of 19, or nearly one-fifth of the children constantly unemployed. Similarly the rate of unemployment of 2.3 prevailing just before the sixteenth birthday would mean a constant percentage unemployed of approximately 5.6, or about one-twentieth of the children. u ** See A ppendix, https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis pp. 66-57. 32 IN D U S T R IA L IN S T A B IL IT Y O F C H IL D W O R K E R S . Duration of unemployment. The duration of unemployment is shown in Table X III. A full explanation of the method of computation is given in the appendix. I t is found that 44.3 per cent of the periods of unemployment last less than a month, an additional 19.1 per cent less than two months, and an additional 9 per cent less than three months, making a total of 72.4 per cent of all periods lasting less than three months. The approximate average duration of unemployment is found to be slightly over two months and a half. The median duration falls between one and two months. Duration of unemployment, and sex.—An analysis of the duration of periods of unemployment by sex shows th a t the average period of unemployment is very slightly shorter for boys than for girls. Forty-five per cent of the periods of unemployment for boys were ended within the first month as compared with 43 per cent for girls. The average duration of unemployment for boys was 2 months and 18 days and for girls 2 months and 21 days. These differences are not, however, of particular significance. They might be due to a greater tendency of girls to stay at home and help with the house work or to the fact that boys have a greater variety of possible employments. Table X III.—Duration of unemployment, by sex. Per cent distribution of cases of unem ployment. D uration of unem ploym ent. All children. A ll durations.............................................................................. ........................ Boys. Girls. 100.0 100.0 100.0 44.3 19.1 9.0 6.3 4.2 3.9 2.6 45.0 18.9 9.1 6.3 4.3 3.5 2.6 2 .2 1.5 1.4 1.8 .6 .9 .3 .5 .1 .5 .2 .2 43.1 19.4 9.0 6.5 4.1 4.3 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 .1 .2 .2 .6 .3 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 .8 1.1 .3 .3 .1 .5 .2 .1 Duration of unemployment in different parts of work history — The relative duration of unemployment in the earlier and later parts of work history can be contrasted in cases of children who commenced https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 33 CONNECTICUT. work between the fourteenth and fifteenth birthdays. Cases of unemployment of children in the group considered which began after passing the fifteenth birthday could be followed only until the sixteenth birthday, when the record ceases. To make the com parison, therefore, with the cases of unemployment which commenced prior to the fifteenth birthday, the relative distributions of the cases which terminated within 10 months are shown in Table XIV. Since causes tending to lengthen the duration of unemployment would tend to increase the percentages terminated with three, four, etc., months’ duration as compared with those terminated in one or two months, the close correspondence of the percentages indicates that there is no appreciable difference in the duration of unemployment in the earlier and later parts of work history among these children. T able XIV.—Relative duration of unemployment of children aged 14 but under 15 at first employment, %n early and late parts of work history. Per cent distribution of cases of unem ployment terminated in 10 months among children aged 14 but under 15 at first em ploym ent. Duration of unem ployment. Unemployment commenced in first 10 months of work history. Unemployment commenced in thirteenth to twenty-second months of work history. All durations less than 10 months. 100.0 100.0 Less than 1 month.................................... 1 month but less than 2 ............................ 2 months but less than 3 ...............; ......... 3 months but less than 4 ........................... 4 months but less than 5 ................ ........... 5 months but less than 6 ............................. 6 months but less than 7 ............................. 7 months but less than 8 ...... .................... 8 months but less than 9 ___ •................... 9 months but less than 10.................... 47.8 20.4 9.4 6.6 4.5 3-8 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.4 46.7 19.9 11.0 6.9 3.4 4.9 3.0 .4 3.7 D u ration o f u n em ploym en t , an d age at com m encing w ork .—The average duration of unemployment for children who commenced work between the fourteenth and fifteenth birthdays can be compared with the average for those who commenced work between the fif teenth and sixteenth birthdays. Making the comparison again for the periods of less than 10 months’ duration, the percentages in Table XV are found. The comparison indicates that the periods of unem ployment are relatively somewhat shorter for the children who began work under 15 years of age. A partial explanation may be that in a somewhat larger proportion of cases unemployment among the younger children is due to mere 175086°—20----- 3 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 34 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. restlessness; if in- these eases the unemployment was of compara tively short duration it might tend to increase the proportion of cases which terminated within one or two months. A second explanation may lie In the fact th at children who begin work at the age of 15 but less than 16 may include a larger number who would have gone to work a t the age of 14 but for inability to fulfill the educational requirements for employment certificates, which in Connecticut re quire the completion of the seventh grade or the passing of an exami nation to show their educational qualifications. If the children who commenced work a t later ages include a larger proportion of backward children, the periods of unemployment might include a larger proportion of cases where the incapacity of the child would make it difficult for him to secure another position. XV.— Relative duration of unemployment in first 10 months o f work history, children aged 14 but under IS, and children aged 15 but under 16 at first employment. T able Per cent distribution of cases of unem ployment terminated in 10 months Duration of unemployment. Children aged 14 but under 15 at first em ployment. Children aged 15 but under 16 at first em ployment. 100.0 100.0 47.8 20.4 9.4 6.6 4.5 • 3.8 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.4 40.5 21.3 10.4 8.3 6.4 S.2 4.4 3.4 Percentage of work histories spent in unemployment. I t is possible to estimate the percentage of the total work histories of these children which was spent in unemployment. The total num ber of months lived by the children after their first employment and before their sixteenth birthdays was 117,804; 9,606 months were spent in unemployment which ended before the sixteenth birth day. To this number should be added the number of months of true unemployment which had not terminated a t the sixteenth birthday. This is estimated as 2,359,13 which, added to the figure just given, makes a total of 11,965 months. This means th a t 10.2 per cent of the total work histories of these children was spent in unemployment. » Derived from A ppendix, Table V H , p . 49. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis C03OTECTICUT. 35 Significance of unemployment among children. The significance of unemployment among children between 14 and 16 years of age is quite different from the significance of unemploy ment among adult workers, both in its attendant evils and its causes. Probably with children, as with adults, many cases of unemployment are due to causes over which the workers have no control. Thefe are also cases in both groups in which the personal characteristics of the individual bring about his discharge. But the main significance of the figures presented on the unemployment of children lies in what they show of the gradual adjustment of child workers to industrial life; the rate of new cases of unemployment gradually decreases month by month, as the children become more used to the requirements and discipline of industry. Unemployment among heads of families means, for the most part, cessation of the family income; unemploy ment among children does hot usually have such an implication. The amounts received by children are usually not of vital importance in meeting the needs of the family. The evils attending long-continued unemployment among children lie in the greater danger they run of establishing bad habits, and in the utter waste of time which should be used to increase in some way the child’s preparation for adult life. Children not a t work and not in school are neither earning anything to justify their withdrawal from school, nor are they getting any trailing either from school or from industry. They may be half-heartedly searching for work, or they may be merely idle, and acquiring a distaste for work as well as school. Childhood is regarded by the State as a period of training; periods of unemployment, when the child is neither a t work nor at school, represent so much of this training time wasted. According to the Connecticut law a child between 14 and 16 years of age is required to attend school if not actually a t work on an employment certificate.16 No adequate provision, however, is made by the school authorities—and the situation is similar in practically every State—for taking care of such cases. From the point of view of the educational authorities it is an administrative problem of con siderable difficulty to determine what time should be allowed a child to hunt for a job, and how long unemployment may last before the child is required to report a t school. Furthermore, it is difficult to keep track of these unemployed children and troublesome to have them in the regular classes in school. From the viewpoint of the best interests of the children, such education to be profitable should be especially adapted to their needs. But special classes for unem18 General Statutes, revision 1902, sec. 2116; A cts of 1903, ch. 29, as amended b y Acts of 1905, ch. 36. Chil dren of these ages lawfully employed at home and those whose parents are unable to provide suitable cloth ing, or whose physical or mental condition unfits them for school attendance, are, however, exem pted. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 36 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. ployed children are very difficult to furnish in an ordinary school system. Only a continuation school which the child is obliged to attend a certain number of hours a week when employed can meet his needs for educational facilities when unemployed. With such a system the problems both of administrative control and of educational traiiiing are greatly simplified, since the child attends the same school when unemployed or when employed. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS. Employment certificates are issued in Connecticut to children between the ages of 14 and 16 at work in industrial occupations. The group whose fourteenth birthdays occurred between September 1 , 1911, and September 1 , 1912, was followed in the employmentcertificate records from the fourteenth to thé sixteenth birthdays. Seven thousand one hundred and forty-seven children out of an estimated population of 20,010 of this age were granted employment certificates. The proportion employed increased from 7.3 per cent in the month following the fourteenth birthday to 31.8 per cent on the sixteenth birthday. Nearly half the children who became employed between the ages of 14 and 16 were at work before 14J years of age and half the remainder were at work before passing the fifteenth birthday. The percentage of boys employed before the sixteenth birthday was somewhat higher than that of girls, 35 per cent of the boys as contrasted with 28.6 per cent of the girls. On an average, for the two years of age considered, about 24 per cent were gain fully employed in industrial occupations. Of the 7,147 children, 5,342, or 74.7 per cent, began work in manu facturing and mechanical industries; 28.9 per cent began work in metal industries, 21 per cent in textile industries, and 8.6 per cent in the manufacture of clothing. The first employment of 1,233, or 17.3 per cent, of the childern was in trade; the first employment in the remaining cases was in various other industries. Nearly 30 per cent of the children who commenced work between 14 years of age and 14 years and 3 months remained in the first posi tion for more than a year and nine months, or practically until they were 16 years of age. On the other hand, over one-third left theposition of first employment before the end of three months of work, and nearly one-sixth left within the first month. A somewhat smaller proportion of boys remained in their first position for a year and nine months than of girls, and a larger proportion of boys than of girls left the first position within three months. The children employed in the textile industries showed the longest periods of first employment and the lowest percentages of changes in the early months. Measured by the number of positions in relation to the length of work history, the boys showed a somewhat larger proportion of unsteady workers than the girls, and a somewhat greater tendency to shift from one position to another. Children quitting work began new jobs immediately or in less than a week in approximately 37 per cent of the cases. S7 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 38 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. In the remaining cases a period of unemployment intervened. The monthly rate of unemployment, or the number of new cases of unemployment in the month of work history per 100 children em ployed at the beginning of the month, decreased from 9.1 in the first month to 2.3 in the twenty-third month. The boys showed a some what higher rate of unemployment than the girls, 10.1 as contrasted with 7.9 in the first month, 5.9 as compared with 4 in the sixth, and 2.4 as compared with 2 in the twenty-third month. The average duration of cases of unemployment, defined as lasting one week or more, was approximately two months and a half, 44.3 per cent of all cases terminated within a month, and an additional 19.1 per cent before the end of the second month, with percentages rapidly decreasing after the second month. Although unemployment among children is not so serious a prob lem from the point of view of family income as unemployment of the breadwinner, it has serious aspects in relation to the enforcement of the compulsory school law, and, what is of more importance, in regard to the formation of children’s industrial habits. The amount of information available on the records obviously limits the scope of any study based upon them. In Connecticut other items might be added without unduly burdening the certificate, notably the grade completed and the type of work or the occupation in which the child is to be employed. The grade completed is entered on the information card, but these cards are kept by the agents and are not filed in the office of the State board of education as the certificates are. If the child has a promise of employment, the em ployer must know the general character of the work he is to do, and could easily state this on the promise. This information would be especially valuable, if not essential, in case physical examinations for particular occupations were required; to determine that the work the child is to do will not be detrimental to his health, the examining physician must have some information in regard to the proposed occupation. Other items which can not easily be placed on the certificate form itself would be of great interest for the purpose of a closer study of the conditions of child labor. The reason for leaving school and for leav ing each position, the wages promised and received, the hours of work, time of work, exact duties and other points—all such items would afford much valuable material for study. These items are frequently placed on a separate information card; in some States information in regard to all the different positions held by a child is placed on a single card. If these cards, or copies of them, could be filed in some central place the material would be made easily acces sible. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 39 From the point of view of a statistical study of child labor based on certificate records, the most important single feature of adminis trative organization is the centralizing of records in a single office. Without this centralization such a study as this would have been impracticable if not impossible. This feature of the Connecticut organization makes possible the utilization of valuable record material. I t would be a great gain if the data being collected in other States, now in many cases recorded and filed in many local offices, could be brought together in a central office which would keep and tabulate the information secured from the records for the entire State. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis APPENDIX. M ETH O D OF PROCEDURE. Since the use of the material available for this report presents several complicated problems, an explanation of the procedure and method of computation is given in the appendix. D u ra tio n o f u n em ploym en t .—The first of these problems concerns the duration of unemployment. The method may be stated more clearly by considering first the procedure applicable to a group of oases of unemployment, all of which could be followed until they ended. Suppose, for example, of 1,000 cases of unemployment, 443 terminate in the first month, 191 in the second, 90 in the third, 63 in the fourth, 42 in the fifth, and so on until all have terminated before the nineteenth month; then the series represents a percentage dis tribution of the cases by duration of unemployment. In the material available for this study, however, it is not possible to follow all cases of unemployment until they terminate. After the sixteenth birthday the record ceases and the exact duration of cases unterminated at that time can not be ascertained. But without knowing how long such cases lasted, the percentages terminated with the different durations can be ascertained by dividing the inquiry into a series of partial inquiries. In the illustration given above it would be possible to state the percentage of cases of unemployment th at terminated in the first month without knowing the percentage which terminated in any other month. The first partial inquiry, then, is into the proportion of cases which end within a month. This is found by following the records for one month after each case of unemployment and taking the percentage of cases of unemploy ment which terminated within that month. In case the period of unemployment commenced within less than a month of the sixteenth birthday, it has to be omitted, since it can not in all cases be followed to the end of the month to determine whether or not the period of unemployment terminated within the month.1 The second inquiry is into the percentage of cases which end with a duration of one month but less than two. This is found by following for two months all cases of unemployment which began two months or more before the sixteenth birthday, and taking the 1 In practice, owing to the fact that in tabulation tim e was measured from th e beginning rather than from the end of the work history, periods of unem ployment in each work history which commenced in th e part of a month im m ediately preceding th e sixteenth birthday, and also in th e m onth imm ediately preceding this fractional month, were omitted from consideration. A similar procedure was followed in each of the other partial inquiries. 41 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 42 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. proportion of cases which terminated with a duration of one but less than two months. The percentage for each possible duration is calculated in a similar way, by taking the percentage of the cases of unemployment that could be followed for the length of time required for the case to terminate with the given duration which actually terminated with this duration. The percentages thus calculated from cases actually terminated before the sixteenth birthday, and the numbers on which they are based, are shown in Table I. T able I .—Percentage of cases of unemployment terminated with specified duration. Cases of unem ploym ent. D uration of unem ployment. Less than 1 month.................. 1 month but less than 2 ......... 2 months but less than 3 ........ 3 months but less than 4........ 4 months but less than 5 ........ 5 months but less than 6......... 6 months but less than 7 ........ 7 months but less than 8........ 8 months but less than 9 ........ 9 months but less than 10___ 10 months but less than 11__ 11 months but less than 12__ 12 months but less than 1 3 ... 13 months but less than 14. 14 months but less than 1 5 ... 15 months but less than M ... lfi months but less than 1 7 ... 17 months but less than 18.... 18 months but less than 1 9 ... 19 months but less than 2 0 ... 20 months but less than 2 1 ... 21 months but less than 22 ... Sum of the percentages Terminated w ith specified W hich duration. could have j terminated w ith specified -Adjusted duration. Number. P ercen t. per cent. 5,883 .5,489 5,227 4,945 4,862 4,387 4,107 3,827 3,524 3,195 2,868 2,580 2,279 1,990 1,737 1,467 1,210 964 731 519 : 331 142 2,197 913 414 272 174 147 95 75 43 40 45 19 22 5 6 2 5 2 1 38.7 16.7 7.9 5.5 3.7 3.4 2.3 2.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 .7 1.0 .3 .3 44.3 19.1 9.0 6.3 4.2 3.9 2.6 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 .8 1.1 .1 .4 .3 .3 .1 .5 .2 .2 87.4 100.0 .1 .1 I t will be observed that the percentages do not add to 100 as they would if a fixed number of cases of unemployment could be fol lowed until they ah terminated. If all the cases of unemployment in the group under consideration were true unemployment, the per centages would add to 100, since on this assumption the method of computation explained would secure a correct percentage terminated for each duration.2 But the number of cases of unemployment which 2 Except for the possibility that the percentages m ay be different in different parts of the work history. The percentages for th e longer durations are based on eases of unem ployment which originated relatively early in the longer work histories, while the percentages for the shorter durations are based on practically all cases of unem ploym ent. If, then, the percentages for the shorter durations are smaller for cases origi nating shortly before the sixteenth birthday than for those originating some tim e before, th ey w ill tend to reduce th e average percentages for th e shorter durations w ithout affecting those for th e longer durations. The evidence discussed later indicates th at th e percentages lor th e shorter durations are som ew hat smaller— th a tis, th e average duration of unem ployment is longer—for children who commenced work w hen 15 but Under 18 than for those w ho commenced work when 14 bu t under 15 years of age. T he of error arising from this cause is relatively negligible, since the group who commenced work w hen 15 bu t under 16 years of age includes bu t one quarter of the children w ith only one-eighth of th e tim e employed. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CQIOTECTICUT. 43 appear in column 1 of the table include a certain proportion of cases where the child left the State, returned to school, went into an industry where employment certificates were not required, or died—these cases of pseudo-unemployment would never terminate so far as the record is concerned. In these contingencies the employer of the children sends in their .termination notices in the usual way, and no further information concerning them is filed before their sixteenth birthdays. So far as the record shows there is no difference between this case and one in which a child is really unemployed for a time prior to his sixteenth birthday. All these cases of pseudo-unemployment C H ART II.—PER C ENTAGE OF CASES OF U N E M P L O Y M E N T S PE C IF IE D D U R A TIO N . T E R M IN A T E D W IT H will appear as periods of unemployment unterminated a t the six teenth birthday. The percentages in Table I are found by dividing the number of periods of unemployment of specified durations which actually terminated before the sixteenth birthday by the total number of cases which commenced at such time that they could have ended before the sixteenth birthday with the specified durations. Since the numerators of these fractions contain no cases of pseudo unemployment but only those which have actually terminated, while the denominators contain all cases of apparent as well as true unemployment, all the percentages found will be reduced below the true percentages, and hence will not add to 100. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 44 IN D U S T R IA L IN S T A B IL IT Y OF C H IL D W O RK ERS. Expressing the number of periods of true unemployment by 77, the number terminated in less than one month by T0, the number terminated in one but less than two months by T, etc., and the percentages with specified duration by P with subscripts correspond ing to those for T, then, p 77 0 andP0+ P 1+ P2+ • • • • =100. If the number of periods of unemployment including pseudo unemployment is expressed by F, and the percentages found by dividing by V instead of by V are expressed by Q instead of P, and the factor, a, for pseudo-unemployment is defined as V = 77. a, then _Po_ Q • n _ y ^0} JJd Q or l i l _o JJ n —p ®P < > * Hence, (Q o + ^1 + ^ 2 + • • •') ® = 1 0 0 ,100___________ J $0 + $ i + $ 2 + • • *• In other words, assuming that all the denominators are affected by the same proportionate error,3 that is, that they represent the number of cases of real unemployment times a factor, a, the extent of the error—the factor, a—can be found by dividing 100 by the sum of the percentages given in Table I. This factor is found to be 1.144. The percentages given in the text, Table X III, have all been multiplied by the factor, a, or 1.144, to correct for the error arising from the cases of pseudo-unemployment. The percentages showing the duration of unemployment for each sex have been treated in a similar manner. The figures showing the monthly rates of becoming unemployed also have to be corrected for the error arising from pseudo-unemploy ment. In this case, since the cases of pseudo-unemployment erroneously included appear in the numerators of the rate fractions— the number of new cases of unemployment divided by the number of. children at work—the rates found have to be divided by 1.144 to give the corrected rates. The only difficulty with this procedure is the error involved in taking an average percentage of pseudo-unemployment rather than a special correction for the different sexes, ages, and parts of work history. But it has the advantage of simplicity and of being derived from a relatively large base; the effect of the error resulting from this procedure on the conclusions reached will be discussed later. The distribution of the cases of pseudo-unemployment is also ana lyzed below. s For the error involved in this assumption, see pp. 52-53. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 45 CONNECTICUT, Tables II and III give the basic figures for the duration of unem ployment for boys and girls, respectively, together with the original and the adjusted percentages. * T able IT.—Percentage of cases o f unemployment of boys terminated with specified dura tion. Periods of unem ployment of boys. Duration of unemployment. Less than 1 m onth............. 1 month but less than 2__ 2 months but less than 3 .. 3 months but less than 4 .. 4 months but less than 5 .. 5 months but less than 6 .. 6 months but less than 7 .. 7 months but less than 8 .. 8 months but less than 9 .. 9 months but less than 10. 10 months but less than 11 11 months but less than 12. 12 months but less than 13. 13 months but less than 14 14 months but less than 15 15 months but less than 16. 16 months but less than 17 17 months but less than 18. 18 months but less than 19, 19 months but less than 20, 20 months but less than 21, 21 months but less than 22. Terminated w ith specified Total that duration. could have ended in the specified Adjusted duration. Number. Per cent. per cent. 3,595 3,467 3,306 3,136 2,963 2,808 2,626 2,451 2,248 2,044 1,834 1,649 1,463 1,280 1,124 950 774 609 453 332 211 84 1,417 577 265 171 112 88 61 47 29 24 30 9 12 4 5 1 3 1 1 Sum of percentages.. T able 39.4 16.6 8.0 5.5 3.8 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.6 .5 .8 .3 .4 .1 .4 .2 .2 45.0 18.9 9.1 6.3 4.3 3.5 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.8 .6 .9 .3 .5 .1 .5 .2 .2 87.6 100.0 I I I .—Percentage of cases of unemployment of girls terminated with specified duration. Periods of unem ploym ent of girls. Duration of unem ployment. Less than 1 m o n th ................................................................................. 1 m onth bu t less than 2 ..................................................................... 2 m onths but less than 3 ...................................................................... 3 m onths bu t less than 4 ...................................................................... 4 m onths bu t less than 5 ...................................................... 5 m onths but less than 6 ........................................................ 6 m onths but less than 7 . ......................................... 7 m onths but less than 8 ....................................... 8 m onths but less than 9 ....................................... 9 m onths but less than 10........................................... 10 m onths but less than 11.............................. 11 m onths but less than 12.............................. 12 m onths but less than 13.................. 13 m onths but less than 14................................ 14 m onths bu t less than 15................................ 15 m onths but less than 16.............................. 16 m onths bu t less than 17............................................. 17 m onths bu t less than 18......................................... 18 m onths bu t less than 19.................................................... 19 m onths bu t less than 20................................................. 20 m onths b u t less than 21.............................................................. 21 m onths but less than 22................................................................ Sum of percentages................................................................ https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Terminated w ith specified Total that duration. could have ended in the speci fied dura Number. Per cent. Adjusted tion. per cent. 2,088 2,002 1,921 1,809 1,699 1,579 1,481 1,376 1,276 1,151 1,034 931 816 710 613 517 436 355 278 187 120 58 780 336 149 101 62 59 34 28 14 16 15 10 10 1 1 1 2 1 37.4 16.8 7.8 5.6 3.6 3.7 2.3 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 .1 .2 .2 .5 .3 43.1 19.4 9.0 6.54.1 4.3 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 .1 .2 .2 .6 .3 86.8 100.0 48 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY O f CHILD WORKERS. In Tables IV and V the basic figures for the duration of unem ployment are given for cases of unemployment originating in the first 10 months of work history of children aged 14 but under 15, and for children aged 15 but under 16 years at beginning work, together with figures for the duration of cases of unemployment originating in the thirteenth to the twenty-second months of work history for children aged 14 but under 15 years at beginning work. In making these comparisons to show the effect of the age at be ginning work and experience on the duration of unemployment, the difficulty arises whether the percentage not terminated after 10 months of work history represents cases of pseudo-unemployment merely, or cases of true unemployment lasting for relatively long periods. For purposes of comparative duration, however, it is suf ficient to examine the cases which terminated a t less than 10 months, since causes tending to lengthen the duration of unemployment would affect these durations, tending to decrease the proportion ter minated in less than 1 and 2 months as compared with the proportion terminated in the third, fourth, and later months. IV —Percentage of eases of unemployment terminated with, specified duration: Cases originating in first 10 months of work history of children of specified age at com mencing work. T able Cases of unem ploym ent originating in first 10 m onths of work history. Of children aged 14 bu t under 15 a t commencing work. Duration of unem ployment and termination. •8 iiiuiitliS liut less thQiii 9 . . . .................... Of children aged 15 bu t under 16 a t commencing work. Terminated. Terminated. W hich W hich m ight have m ight have terminated terminated w ith speci w ith speci fied dura Number. Per cent. fied dura Number. Per cent. tion.» tion. 3.345 3.345 3.345 3.345 . 3.345 3.345 3.345 3.345 3.345 3.345 3.345 1,366 581 268 186 127 108 75 66 36 39 493 40.8 17.4 8.0 5.6 3.8 3 .2 2.2 2.0 1.1 1.2 14.7 666 585 509 448 362 287 221 149 «8 32 219 101 43 30 19 12 8 4 32.9 17.3 8.5 6.7 5.2 4.2 3 .6 2 .8 *18.8 i Includes for each duration only eases of unem ploym ent commenced early enough so th a t th ey m ight have terminated w ith th a t duration before th e sixteenth birthday. . . , * The difference between 100 per cent and th e sum of th e other per cents given in th e column. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 47 CONNECTICUT. —Percentage o f cases of unemployment terminated with specific duration: Cases originating thirteenth to twenty-second months o f work history, children aged 14- hut less than 15 at beginning work. T able Y Cases of unem ploym ent origi nating in thirteenth to tw enty-second months of work history. Duration of unem ploym ent. 1 m onth b u t less th an 2............................................................................................ 2 months but less than 3.............................................................................. ....... 4 m onths but less than 5....................................................................................... 5 months but less th an 6...............................‘..........................................................I 6 months but less than 7................................................................................ 7 m onths but less th an 8.......................................................................................... 8 months bu t less th an 9 ....................................................................... 9 m onths but less th an 10...................................... ............................................... N ot terminated a t 10 m on ths................................................................................. Terminated. Which might have term inated w ith speci fied dura N um ber. Per cent. tion. 1,238 1,125 991 818 673 549 416 300 188 77 ' 421 163 79 41 17 20 9 1 5 34.0 14.5 8.0 5.0 2.5 3.6 2.2 .3 2.7 i 27.2 1 The difference betw een 100 per cent and the sum of the other per cents given in th e column. In Table YI the percentage distributions for cases of unemploy ment terminated in 10 months are given. Practically no difference appears between the percentages for cases of unemployment com menced in the first 10 months and in the thirteenth to the twentysecond months of work histories of children who were 14 but under 15 years of age a t commencing work. For this group, which com prises about three-fourths of the entire number of children, it may be inferred, then, th at the duration of unemployment is practically the same in the later as in the earlier parts of work history, but that there is a considerable increase in the number of cases of pseudo unemployment in the later part of the work history. In the other comparison a slight difference in the duration of un employment appears. A somewhat smaller proportion of cases of unemployment end in one month, a larger proportion in subsequent months, among the children who were 15 but under 16 years of age at beginning work, than among children who were 14 but under 15 years of age a t beginning work. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 48 T able INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. V I.—Relative duration of unemployment by age at which unemployment com menced and age at beginning work. Per cent distribution of cases of unem ployment term inated in 10 m onths. Children aged 14 but under 15 at beginning work. Duration of unem ploym ent. • Children aged 15 but under 16 at beginning Unemploy work; unem m ent com Unemploy ploym ent com menced thir menced in first m ent com teenth to menced in first 10 m onths of 10 m onths of twenty-second work history. m onth of work history. work history. 100.0 100.0 100. oi 47.8 20.4 9.4 6.6 4.5 3.8 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.4 46.7 19.9 11.0 6.9 3.4 4.9 3.0 .4 3.7 46.5 21.3 10.4 8.3 6.4 5.2 4.4 3.4 N um ber o f cases o f pseu do-u n em ploym en t .—The second problem is to determine the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment. This can be found in two ways. The simplest is to consider the total num ber of cases of unemployment, 5,961, as 114.4 per cent of the true number; this computation gives 750 cases of pseudo-unemployment. Thus of the 1,378 children who appear to have left their positions and not secured others before their sixteenth birthdays, only about half were really unemployed. For the other half, if the records were complete, they would show migration, death, return to school, and other reasons why the employment history terminated. Another method of approach is to calculate the number of children who would be unemployed on their sixteenth birthdays according to the durations of unemployment actually found in terminated cases, assuming the same monthly rates of unemployment as actually pre vailed. This method has an advantage in th at it permits of forming an idea as to the probable distribution by month of origin of the cases of pseudo-unemployment. This method is used in Table VII. Column 2 of that table gives the number of cases of unemployment originating in the different months of work history preceding the sixteenth birthday. By com puting the percentage of cases of unemployment which would still be unterminated after the corresponding periods of time—if the same duration of periods prevails as for cases which have terminated within the record period and for which, therefore, the exact duration is known—and by applying these percentages to the number of cases of unemployment originating in each month, the number of https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 49 CONNECTICUT. cases of actual unemployment at 16 can be found. The difference between these numbers and the numbers reported “ not a t work” at 16 are the cases of pseudo-unemployment. In other words, the procedure gives an estimate of the number of cases out of those originating in each month which, if all were cases of true unemploy ment, would be still unterminated. The problem of computing the number of cases of true unemploy ment by this second method offers some difficulty. The percentage of cases not terminated obviously depends directly upon the length of time that the cases of unemployment have to run before the sixteenth birthday. If a given number of cases commenced at exactly one month before the sixteenth birthday, on the average 44.3 per cent would have terminated and 55.7 per cent would be still unterminated at the end of the record. Similarly, if the cases com menced at exactly two months before the sixteenth birthday, 63.4 per cent would have terminated, or 36.6 per cent would be untermi nated. The percentages for these durations of complete months can be derived from the adjusted figures of Table I. Table V II.—Estimated cases of pseudo-unemployment, by month of origin. Cases of Month of work history before fringe unem ploy Percent m onth preceding s i x t e e n t h m ent com age not ter m encing in minated birthday. specified at 16. month. Fringe m on th .......................................... First m onth preceding......................... Second m onth preceding..................... Third m onth preceding........................ Fourth m onth preceding..................... F ifth m onth preceding......................... Sixth m onth preceding......................... Seventh m onth preceding................... E ighth m onth preceding..................... N inth m onth preceding....................... T en th m onth preceding....................... E leventh m onth preceding................. Tw elfth m onth preceding................... Thirteenth m onth preceding.............. Fourteenth m onth preceding............. Fifteenth m onth preceding................. Sixteenth m onth preceding................ Seventeenth m onth preceding........... E ighteenth m onth preceding............. T w entieth m onth preceding” ............. Twenty-first m onth preceding........... Twenty-second m onth preceding___ Tw enty-third m onth preceding_____ 77 201 214 242 • 282 283 275 280 280 303 329 327 288 301 289 253 270 257 246 233 212 188 189 142 | • i 82.2 57.8 37.8 27.6 21.3 17.0 13.2 10.5 8.2 6.9 5.4 3.5 2.7 1.6 1.3 .9 .8 .3 .i Estimated ; cases of Estim ated real unem Cases not cases of Factor of ploym ent at work pseudo- correction unterm i at 16. unem ploy a. nated m ent. at 16. 63 116 81 67 60 48 36 29 23 21 18 11 8 5 4 2 2 1 72 163 145 134 136 113 72 52 62 65 57 35 33 28 33 20 24 17 12 6 4 595 9 47 64 67 76 65 36 23 39 44 39 34 27 28 31 26 31 19 24 15 12 6 4 1 39 1.09 1. 10 1.17 1.14 1.12 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.08 1 03 1.03 783 But in the groups under consideration, the exact time to the sixteenth birthday is not given for each period of unemployment. Cases of unemployment are classified by the month of work ¿story, measured from the date of (first) employment, in which they began. In stating those months with reference to the time interval before 175086°—20------i https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 50 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. the sixteenth birthday, there is in each work history group, there fore, a “ fringe’’ or fractional month fust prior to the sixteenth birthday, and the other months can be classed only according to the number of months preceding the fringe. For example, cases of unemployment commencing in the first month of work histories of four but less than five months in length are classed as occurring in the fourth month before the fringe month just preceding the end of the reeord; cases of unemployment that occur in the fifth month (from the beginning) of these work histories are in the fringe month. Cases of unemployment in a given month of work history may be assumed to occur uniformly throughout the month. The possible duration before the sixteenth birthday of unemployment originating in a given month varies with its position in the month of origin and with its position in relation to the fringe. The possible duration before the sixteenth birthday of cases commencing on the first day of a given month of work history is nearly one month greater than those commencing on the last day. The possible duration before the sixteenth birthday of eases commencing on the last day of a given month of work history is nearly one month greater if there is nearly a full month of fringe than if there is practically no fringe. Cases of unemployment, for example, commencing in the first month of work histories of four but less than five months in length have possi ble durations before the end of the record at the sixteenth birthday of from three to less than five months—three if the unemployment starts a t the end of the month in a work history lasting just four months, and nearly five if the unemployment starts at the beginning of the month in a work history lasting nearly five months. On the average, cases of unemployment commencing in the fourth month before the fringe month, as in the example given, have four months possible duration before the sixteenth birthday. The percentage of cases of unemployment commencing in a given month of work history which were not terminated a t the sixteenth birthday is practically equal to the percentage not terminated after the average number of months’ duration, except for the fringe months and those immediately preceding the fringe months. Thus, if 21.3 per cent of cases of unemployment are still unterminated four months after they commenced, approximately the same percentage of cases commencing in the fourth month of work history preceding the fringe month are still untermmated at the sixteenth birthday, since the average possible duration before the sixteenth birthday of those cases is exactly four months. For the fringe months and the two months preceding the fringe a different procedure has been used. If Y ^ th e percentage ter minated after time X , then the values of Y ean be calculated from Table I showing the duration of unemployment: for X = 0 , y = o ; https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 51 f o r x = l , y = 44. 3; for x = 2, y = for x = 4, y = 78.7, etc. Using (44.3 +19.1) = 63.4; for x = 3 , y = 72A; tlie first five values, a parabola can be passed through these points as follows: y =63.86 x —23 68x2-f 4.44 x3—0.32 x*. The percentage terminated for the fringe month is The percentage terminated for cases commencing in the month pre ceding the fringe month is Similarly for the second month preceding the fringe month i The corresponding percentages for cases not terminated are 82.2, 57.8, and 37.8, respectively. Applying these percentages to the number of cases of unemploy ment actually begun in the corresponding months of work history, the figures in the third column are obtained for the cases of real unemployment at 16. Subtracting these from the number recorded as actually unterminated, given in column 4, the figures in the fifth column are secured showing the number and distribution by month of origin of the cases of pseudo-unemployment. The total, 783, is slightly larger than that given by the first method. This figure has been used in preference to the figure secured by the other method, because using it tends to understate the number of cases of true unemployment. I t will be noted that in making the foregoing calculation of cases of pseudo-unemployment the cases of unemployment commencing in each month are treated as if they were all true unemployment. In algebraic symbols, using 8 to represent the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment, B the number of children not at work at 16 according to record, P the percentage of cases of true unemploy ment terminated before 16, and p = then S = B - - ( l - p ) , In making the estimate, however, the number of cases of pseudounemployment is calculated from thé formula S ' = B - V ( 1 - p ) , I t can easily be shown that S ' = Sp . ; for all except the last five or six months there is very little difference between 8 and S ’, since P, or the percentage terminated before 16, rapidly approaches 100 per cent as the number of months increases. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 52 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. The reason for using the value S p instead of S is because the char acter of the cases of pseudo-unemployment apparently changes in the months immediately before the sixteenth birthday. If children securing new positions just before the sixteenth birthday go to work without applying for certificates, representing to the employers that they are already 16, they would appear on the record as “ not at work” at 16. These cases would differ from other cases of pseudo unemployment in that they are real unemployment for a part of the time, whereas, in case of children who died or left the State, the entire period is one of pseudo-unemployment. Or, considering the two classes in the light of the effect of prolonging the certificate requirement until 18 years of age, the cause of the former would disappear and the children would then secure their certificates, while the latter, no matter how high the age limit were raised, would never appear again on the record. Using the value S p , it includes as pseudo-unemployment all who took new positions before the sixteenth birthday without certificates, together with a percentage equal to that of true unemployment terminated before the sixteenth birthday of cases originating in the month in question, of the cases of the ordinary pseudo-unemployment; it excludes a small pro portion of cases of ordinary pseudo-unemployment; the value S would include in addition to these three groups an estimate of cases of failure to take out certificates after the sixteenth birthday, cor responding to the failures before the sixteenth birthday—which is obviously absurd. That there is such a change in the character of cases of pseudo unemployment is clear from the figures for the value of the factor, a, given in Table VII, last column, derived from the formula V a ~ V - ( B - V (l-p)) I t appears that for months preceding the fifth before the fringe month preceding the sixteenth birthday, the factor expressing the ratio of total cases of unemployment to true cases is fairly constant, but that it increases very rapidly in the months just before the six teenth birthday. The cause suggested is doubtless the explanation of this increase. E rror in du ration o f u n em ploym en t .—The extent of the error in volved in calculating the percentages of cases of unemployment which terminated with the different durations, on the assumption that each denominator had the same percentage of cases of pseudo unemployment, can be tested by means of these figures. The numbers of cases of pseudo-unemployment included in the various denominators are given in Table VIII. The corrected percentages of cases of unemployment terminated with the different durations found by dividing the cases terminated by the numbers of cases of https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 53 CONNECTICUT. true unemployment are presented in Table IX. The* difference between this series and that already given is inconsiderable. No attempt has therefore been made to correct the durations of unem ployment for the error arising from differences in the proportions of cases of pseudo-unemployment in the different parts of work history. T able V III. — Estimated number of cases of true unemployment and factdr for correction for each specified period. Cases of unem ployment up to specified time. Time. True un employ m ent. 5,961 783 ,5,178 1.151 5,884 5,683 5,469 5,227. 4,945 4,662 4,387 4,107 3,827 3,524 3,195 2,868 2,580 2,279 1,990 1,737 1,467 1,210 964 731 519 331 142 774 727 663 596 520 455 419 396 357 313 274 240 213 185 154 128 97 78 54 37 22 10 4 5,110 4,956 4,806 4,631 4,425 4,207 3,968 3,711 3,470 3,211 2,921 2,628 2,367 2,094 1,836 1,609 1,370 1,132 910 694 497 321 138 1.151 1.147 1.138 1.129 1.117 1.108 1.106 1.107 1.103 1.097 1.094 1.091 1.090 1.088 1.084 1.080 1.071 1.069 1.059 1.053 1.044 1.(131 1.029 Total. Sixteenth birthday.................................................. End of specified month preceding fringe month: First month....................................................... Second month.................................................... Third month...................................................... , Fourth m onth .................................................. Fifth month............................... ...................... Sixth month....... ............................................. Seventh month................................................. Eighth month.................................................... Ninth month................................................ Tenth month..................................................... Eleventh month......................... ............... ...... Twelfth month.................................................. Thirteenth month............................................. Fourteenth month....... ^................................. Fifteenth month................................................ Sixteenth month....... ....................................... Seventeenth month....................................... Eighteenth month............................................ Nineteenth month............................................ Twentieth month................... ......................... Twenty-first month.......................................... Twenty-second month.................. .................. Twenty-third month............................... ........ T able Factor of correction, Pseudounemploy ment. a. IX .—Percentage of cases of unemployment terminated with specified duration, corrected by eliminating cases of pseudo-unemployment. True cases of unemployment. Duration of unem ployment. Under 1 m onth............... 1 month but under 2__ 2 m onths but under 3 ... 3 months but under 4 ... 4 months but under 5 ... 5 m onths but under 6 ... 6 m onths but under 7 ... 7 m onths but under 8 ... 8 months but under 9 ... 9 months but under 10.. 10 months but under 11 11 m onths but under 12. 12 m onths but under 13. 13 m onths but under 14. 14 m onths but under 15. 15 m onths but under 16. 16 m onths but under 17. 17 m onths but under 18. 18 m onths but under 19. Sum of per cents.. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis That could Terminated w ith speci fied duration. have ter minated w ith speci fied dura Number. Per cent. tion. 4,956 4,806 4,631 4,425 4,207 3,968 3,711 3,470 3,211 2,921 2,628 2,367 2,094 1,836 1,609 1,370 1,132 910 694 2,197 913 414 272 174 147 95 75 43 40 45 19 22 5 6 2 5 2 1 44.3 19.0 8.9 6.1 4.1 3.7 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 98.7 §4 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. In Table X the incidence of cases of pseudo-unemployment in relation to the number of children at risk has been calculated for different months of work history. The rate gradually increases from 0.3 per cent in the first month of work history to an average of 1 in the last five months. Of course, however, as emphasized in the text, in the early months cases of pseudo-unemployment due to change of work to an occupation for which a certificate is not required, or to temporary removal from the State, may be included with the cases of unemployment if the child returned before his sixteenth birthday to work requiring a certificate in Connecticut. The relative incidence for boys and girls is shown in Table XI. The number of cases of pseudo-unemployment per 100 at risk appears to be slightly less for the girls than for the boys. This result is not at variance, as it might at first appear to be, with the fact that of the cases of unemployment that occur among girls a relatively greater proportion are pseudo-unemployment than among boys, since, because the rates of becoming unemployed are much lower among the girls, the cases of pseudo-unemployment form a larger propor tion of them. T able X .— Monthly incidence of cases of pseudo-unemployment per 100 children at risk. N ew cases of pseudounem ploym ent. Age. Children at risk.1 Number. 1,470 2,037 2^466 2,825 3,150 3,468 3,756 4,047 4,318 4,579 4,793 5,030 5,309 5,539 5,710 5,873 6,017 6,165 6,270 6,329 6,367 6,381 6,390 6,373 1 4 6 12 15 17 24 19 31 26 31 28 27 34 39 44 39 23 36 65 76 67 64 47 9 Per cent. 0.3 .3 .5 .5 .5 .7 .5 .8 .6 .7 .6 .5 .6 .7 .8 .7 .4 .6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 (2) <2) Found by subtracting from th e children who had gone to work in the age period specified or in.som e preceding age period the num ber of cases of pseudo-unem ploym ent which had occurred previous to the age period specified. * N ot a com plete m onth. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 55 CONNECTICUT. T able X L —Relative monthly incidence of cases of pseudo-unemployment, by sex. Age. Boys at risk. N ew cases of pseudo-un employment. Girls at risk. N um Per ber. cent. 817 14 years 1 m onth but under 14 years 2 m onths................. ... . 1,136 14 years 2 m onths but under 14 years 3 m onths..................... . 1,378 14 years 3 m onths bu t under 14 years 4 m onths..................... 1,599 14 years 4 m onths bu t under 14 years 5 m onths................. .. 1,795 14 years 5 m onths but under 14 years 6 m onths..................... 1,983 14 years 6 m onths but under 14 years 7 m o n th s.................... 2,131 14 years 7 m onths bu t under 14 years 8 m onths..................... 2,294 14 years 8 m onths but under 14 years 9 m on ths..................... 2,441 14 years 9 months bu t under 14 years 10 m onths................... 2,580 14 years 10 m onths but under 14 years 11 m onths................. 2,692 14 years 11 m onths but under 14 years 12 m on ths................. 2,819 14 years 12 m onths but under 14 years 13 m on ths.............. .. 2,955 14 years 13 m onths but under 14 years 14 m onths................. 3,096 14 years 14 m onths b u t under 14 yearn 15 m on ths................. 3,189 14 years 15 m onths b u t under 14 years 16 m onths............. 3,275 14 years 16 m onths b u t under 14 years 17 m on ths................. 3,354 14 years 17 m onths b u t under 14 years 18 m onths................. 3,440 14 years 18 m onths but under 14 years 19 m onths................. 3,497 14 years 19 m onths but under 14 years 20 m onths................. 3,526 14 years 20 m onths but under 14 years 21 m onths________ 3,546 14 years 21 m onths but under 14 years 22 m onths------- ----- 3,546 14 years 22 m onths but under 14 years 23 m onths................. 3,545 14 years 23 m onths but under 14 years 24 m onths................ 3,527 4 3 7 11 11 16 11 17 16 21 18 15 20 19 26 19 12 16 48 47 44 39 33 6 0.5 .3 .5 .7 .6 .8 .5 .7 .7 .8 .7 .5 .7 .6 .8 .6 .4 .5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0 C1) N ew cases of pseudo-un employm ent. Num Per ber. cent. 653 901 1,088 1,226 1,355 1,485 1,625 1,753 1,877 1,999 2,101 2,211 2,354 2,443 2,521 2,598 2,663 2,725 2,774 2,804 2,822 2,835 2,845 2,846 3 5 4 6 8 8 14 10 10 19 12 14 20 18 2D 11 19 17 29 24 25 14 3 0.3 .5 .3 .4 .5 .5 .8 .5 .5 .5 .5 .6 .8 .7 .8 .4 .7 .6 1.0 .9 .9 0) w ' 1 N ot a complete m onth. I t is impossible to estimate the number of cases of pseudo-unem ployment due to each possible cause. At an average mortality rate of 3 per 1,000 per year there would have been about 29 deaths among the children at work. But no other cause can be so accur ately measured. There were, however, 54 cases of unemployment not terminated at 16 which had lasted more than 19 months—all presumably pseudo-unemployment. The corresponding schedules were examined; no reason was given in 45 instances; in 5 instances the child had returned to school, including one to a trade school, and one to the State school; in 2 instances the child worked at home; in 1 he went to work on a farm; and in 1 he was ill. These cases illus trate the types of reasons but do not furnish any basis for estimates as to the relative frequency of each type. E stim ates o f children occupied a t each age .—Using the estimates of the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment, the number and the proportions of children occupied at each age, including those tem porarily out of work, can be estimated. For each age the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment which occurred before that age is deducted from the number of children granted certificates before the given age. The results are shown in Table X II, the percentages of which are given in Table II of the text. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 56 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS, T able X II.—Estimated percentage of children occupied at each age, by sex. Children occupied at specified age.1 i —;-r ■ Age. Number. 1,468 2,034 2,460 2,817 3' 142 3,456 ¿'746 4,032 4,305 4,564 4,779 5,017 5,292 5,519 5,688 5,853 6,006 6,147 6,238 6,291 6,334 6,349 6,366 6,364 B oys occupied. Girls occupied. Per cent Per cent Per cent esti of esti of esti Number. of mated Number. mated m ated number number children. of girls. of boys. 7.3 10.2 12.3 14.1 15.7 17.3 18.7 20.1 21.5 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.7 31.2 31.4 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.8 815 1,135 1,374 1,593 1,790 1,975 2,125 2'286 2,433 2,570 2,683 2,812 2,945 3,086 3,176 3,265 3,348 3,432 3,473 3,502 3,524 3,527 3,528 3,521 8.1 11.3 13.6 15.8 17.8 19.6 21.1 22.7 24.2 25.5 26.6 27.9 29.2 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.2 34.1 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 653 899 1,086 1,224 1*352 1,481 1,621 1,746 1,872 1,994 2,096 2,205 2,347 2,433 2,512 2,588 2,658 2,715 2,765 2,789 2,810 2,822 2,838 2,843 6.6 9.0 10.9 12.3 13.6 14.9 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 1 Based on estim ated population aged 14 but under 15, Sept. 1,1912, of 20,010,10,073 boys and 9,937 girls. E stim ate is based on an arithmetical increase of population m the age group 10-14 for 1900 to 1910, th e same proportion of this group is assumed to be of age 14, Sept. 1,1912, as at this date of thè census of 1910, and the ratio of the sexes true for the census date is also assumed to be correct for Sept. 1,1912. Percentage o f children con stantly u n e m p lo y ed — Assuming a con stant rate of unemployment, it is possible to compute from the table giving the duration of unemployment the percentage of children who will be constantly unemployed. If a given number of cases of unem ployment begin at the beginning of a given month of work history, by the end of the month 44.3 per cent will have terminated, or 55.7 per cent will still be unterminated. If the cases of unemployment begin not at the beginning but uniformly throughout the month, the percentage terminated at the end of the month is equal to the expression J ydx, where y is the function given on page 51 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 57> CONNECTICUT. T able X III.—Estimated number of children constantly unemployed among a group o f children of whom 100 became unemployed each month. Mouth of work history. Third.............................................................................................................................. F ifth............................................................................................................................... E leven th....................................................................................................................... Fifteenth............................................................. ......................................................... Estim ated number un Estim ated employed at percentage of end of specified cases of unem period among ploym ent not group of terminated at children of end of specified whom 100 be month of came unem work history. ployed in each m onth of work history. 74.9 44. 8 31.6 24.5 19.2 15.1 11.9 9.4 6.2 4.5 3.1 2.2 1.5 1.1 .9 .6 .2 .1 74.9 119.7 151.3 175.8 195.0 210.1 222.0 231.4 239.0 245.2 249.7 252.8 255.0 256.5 257.6 258.5 259.1 259.3 259.4 In Table X III are given the percentages of cases still unterminated at the end of specified months of work history, the first three months being derived from the formula; for the remaining months the figures give the average of the percentages of cases which would be unter minated if all cases commenced .on the first day and if they all com menced on the last day of the month of work history in question. The next column in the table represents the number of cases still unemployed at the end of the specified month of work history among a group of children of whom 100 became unemployed each, month. After 19 months 259 children are constantly unemployed, for 100 new cases of unemployment commence and 100 cases terminate each month. If the number of children actually employed is then after 19 months assumed to be 1,000—which would give a rate of 10 new cases of unemployment per 100 children a t work at the begin ning of the month—there would be, including the 259 constantly out of work, 1,259 children in the group, and the percentage of the entire group constantly unemployed would be 20.6. A rate of 10 per cent becoming unemployed each month would result, if continued, in one-fifth of the children being constantly unemployed. If the rate were 2, assuming 100 new cases of unemployment each month, the number of children employed in the group would be 5,000, the entire group would be 5,259, and the percentage constantly unem ployed would be 4.9. The percentages given in the text have been computed in a similar manner. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 58 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. M onthly rates o f u n em ploym en t .—-In Tables XIV, XV, and XVI are presented the basic figures for monthly rates of unemployment, together with unadjusted and adjusted percentages. The rates are formed by dividing the number of new cases of unemployment originating in each month of work history by the number of children employed at the beginning of thè month. These percentages are tbpiu reduced by dividing by 1.144 to correct for the cases of pseudo unemployment included among the cases of unemployment, as ex plained above. The number of children employed at' the beginning of each month of work history is given by direct tabulation for the first, second, third, fourth, seventh, thirteenth, and nineteenth months. For the first month only the children are included among those “ at risk” whose work histories lasted a t least one full month, and only the cases of unemployment that occurred among these children were included in the numerator of the rate fraction. Similarly for the other months the denominators include only the children whose work histories lasted through the month in question, and the numer ators include only those cases of unemployment which occurred in the month in question among these children. The number of children at work at the beginning of the fifth and sixth months have been found by taking those employed at the beginning of the fourth month whose work histories lasted through five and six months of work history respectively; a slight correction is made for the slightly greater number of new cases of unemploy ment that begin than that end in the fifth and sixth months, in such á way that the numbers obtained form an even series with the number reported as at work at the beginning of the seventh month. A similar procedure is followed between the seventh and thirteenth, and the thirteenth and nineteenth months. For months after the nineteenth, the number of children employed at the beginning of the nineteenth month whose work histories lasted through the month in question is taken as the denominator of children “ a t risk” for the month. After the nineteenth month of work history the number of children at work at the beginning of the successive months would be approximately constant. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 59 CONNECTICUT, Table X IV .—Monthly rate of unemployment: Number of new cases of unemployment per 100 children employed at beginning of each month of work history. Actual and ad justed rates. . Cases of unem ploym ent. Children employed at begin ning of m onth.1 Month of work history. Number. Per 100 children employed. Adjusted rates.2 First—______________ ____________________________ ___ Second........................................................................................... Third....................................................................................... . Fourth............... : .......................................................................... F ifth......................................................................................... . 7,117 6,351 6,052 5,770 5,641 740 556 522 387 337 10.4 8.8 8.6 6.7 6.0 9.1 7.7 7.5 5.9 5.2 S ix th ........................................................................................ . Seventh..................................................................................... E ighth....................................................................... ................ N inth...... ................................................ ................................ Tenth............................................................................................. 5,497 5,332 5,176 4,991 4,811 316 330 317 306 265 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.3 4.8 E leventh....................................................................................... T w elfth..................................................................................... Thirteenth..................... .............................................................. F ou rteenth................................................................................. Fifteenth.................................................................... ................... 4,592 4,329 4,098 3,905 3,648 242 208 221 211 175 5.3 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.2 Sixteenth ........ .............................................................................. Seventeenth.................................................................................. E ighteenth.................................................................................... N ineteenth.................................................................................... 3,398 3,134 2,867 2,577 2,314 2,004 1,672 1,204 163 130 110 112 91 67 47 31 4.8 4.1 3.8 4.3 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.6 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.3 Tw enty-first___________ ________ ___ ______ _________ Twenty-second................. , . ............ '......................................... T w enty-third............................................................................... 1 Figures for first, second, third, fourth, seventh, thirteenth, and nineteenth found by direct tabulation. Figures for intermediate m onths are derived from those employed at the beginning of the last m onth shown, with a correction, except after th e nineteenth m onth, for the reduction in number em ployed due to the slight excess of new cases of unem ployment commenced over old cases terminated, as indicated b y the figures for the next m onth that is tabulated. 2 Figures found by dividing rates in preceding column by 1.144, to correct for cases of pseudo-unem ploy ment. X V .—Monthly rate of unemployment by sex: Number of new cases of unemploy ment per 100 children employed at beginning of each month of work history. Actual and adjusted rates. T able Month of work history. Cases of unem ploym ent of boys. Boys em ployed at beginning Per 100 Adjusted of month. Number. boys em rates. ployed. First....................... . Seeond........................... Third.......... ................... Fourth........................... Fifth............................... S ix th .............................. S ev e n th ....................... E ighth........................... N in th ............................. Tenth............................. 3,985 3,519 3,335 3,170 .3,095 3,025 2,933 2,847 2,750 2,649 457 354 313 232 223 202 210 206 191 176- Tw elfth........................ Thirteenth................... Fourteenth-................ Fifteenth....................... Sixteenth...................... Seventeenth................. E ighteenth.................. 2 /as 2*394 2,269 2,163 2,022 1,889 1,738 1,601 1/56 130 142 133 117 103 84 70 6. 2 5.4 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.5 4.8 4 .4 . <6.3 N ineteenth................... T w entieth.................... Tw enty-first............ . T wenty-seeond........... T w enty-third.............. 1,433 1,277 1,086 907 647 63 57 46 33 18 4.4 4.5 4.2 3.6 2.8 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11.5 10.1 9.4 7.3 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.2 6.9 6 .6 Cases of unemploym ent of girls. Girls em ployed at beginning Per 100 Adjusted of month. Number. girls em rates. ployed. 10.1 8.8 8,2 6.4 6.3 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.0 5.8 3,132 2,832 2,717 2,600 2,546 2,472 ; 2,399 2,329 2,241 2 162 283 202 209 155 114 114 120 111 115 89 9.0 7.1 7.7 6.0 4.5 4.6 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.1 5.4 4.7 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.2 3.8 2/074 1*935 1,829 1,742 1,626 1,50# 1,396 1,266 86 78 79 78 58 60 46 40 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 3.6 4.0 3.3 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.1 2.4 1,144 1,037 918 765 557 49 34 21 14 13 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.8 2.3 , ■7 . 9 6.2 6.7 5.2 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.2 4 .5 3.6 3. fi : 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.1 3.5 2.9 .2.8 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.6 2.0 60 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. XV I.— Monthly rate of unemployment by aye at commencing work: Number of new cases of unemployment per 100 children at work at the beginning of each of the first 10 months of work history for children aged 14 but under 15 and for children aged 15 but under 16 at first employment. T able Children aged 14 but under 15 at first employm ent. Month of work history. F irst............................... Second........................... T hird................... ......... F ifth .............................. S ix th ............................. E ighth........................... T enth............................. Children aged 15 but under 16 at first • em ploym ent. Cases of unemployment. Cases of unem ployment. EmEmployed ployed Per 100 at begin Per 100 at begin ning of Number. children Adjusted ning of Number. children Adjusted. rates. em rates. . month. em month. ployed. ployed. 5,243 4,711 4,527 4,387 4,372 4,356 4,340 4,336 4,332 4,328 562 436 410 298 276 274 284 282 275 248 10.7 9.3 9.1 6.8 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.7 9.4 8.1 8.0 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.0 1,874 1,640 1,525 1,383 1,269 1,141 992 839 655 478 178 120 112 89 61 42 46 35 31 17 9.5 7.3 7.3 6.4 4.8 3.7 4.6 4.2 4.7 3.6 8.3 6.4 6.4 5.6 4.2 3.2 4.0 3.7 4.1 3.1 M a rg in o f error .—With material of this character it is desirable to discuss in detail the sources of error and the validity of the conclu sions. The primary sources of error, as in other statistics based upon administrative records, lie in the enforcement of the law and the administrative procedure adopted to carry the law into effect. The ënforcement of the law is in the hands of the State board of educa tion. The administration of the child-labor law is carried on in close connection with the enforcement of the compulsory school law. Children under 16 are required to be in school, unless they are at work. Children in the public schools are known to the educational authorities, and it is comparatively easy to check up absences of children and to determine whether they are illegally a t work. The enforcement of the employment-certificate requirement is rela tively difficult, however, with children who have never been in the public schools of Connecticut, namely, those children who are in the parochial schools and those who move into the State of Connecticut from other States. The parochial schools can not be required, under present laws, to report to the State board of education when children subject to the compulsory-education law leave school to go to work or fail to report. The school census which is taken every year affords the school authorities almost the only opportunity to find children from parochial schools or from**outside the State who are not in school but illegally at work or neither in school nor at work. Besides this school census reliance is had upon an inspection serv ice. Industrial establishments are inspected at irregular intervals and c h i l d r e n at work without certificates are sent to the certificate office or are sent back to school. The inspection is more frequent https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 61 and thorough in the larger cities and in the larger establishments. As explained in the text, employers are prosecuted for illegal employ ment of children. The requirement that unemployed children be returned to school is not very satisfactorily enforced. The schools have no suitable provision for such children nor is the administrative machinery adapted to enforce this requirement. Not only are there delays in notifying the agents of the board when a child has left a position without having secured a new one but the local agents have not been required to make definite reports to show the reasons why the chil dren are not at work and not in school. If children between 14 and 16 years of age, both employed and unemployed, were required to attend continuation schools this difficulty would be removed. 1. Number of children employed: The accuracy of the figures relating to the number of children employed depends upon the en forcement and observation of the law. The true number of children employed in occupations covered by the law is probably understated. The understatement is probably proportionately largest of children who moved into the State or who had left the parochial schools to enter employment, but since the enforcement by means of publicschool records, school censuses, and inspection of industrial estab lishments is fairly good, it is doubtful whether many children worked without having at least one certificated position. Duplication of rec ords for the same children is avoided by having a certificate-filing system for the State, and by filing alphabetically. 2. Sex: There is no evidence that failure to secure certificates would occur more frequently among boys than among girls. 3. Age: The distribution by age is probably substantially accurate. Errors arising from failure to take out any certificate, and errors from failure to certify the first one or two positions obtained, would proba bly affect the different ages equally and hence not bias the age dis tribution of children employed. A possible exception is in the cases of children who move into the State after they have become 14; they form a relatively older group, may have had certificates in other States, or they may fail to get certificates at all, since in other cases the enforcement authorities must rely upon an annual school census or upon the inspection system, unless the employers insist upon the children being provided with employment certificates. 4. Proportion of children employed at each age: One source of error is in the estimate of children of a corresponding age in the State. The age statistics of the censuses of 1900 and 1910, which are used as a basis of the estimate, show fluctuations due to errors of reporting. The estimate was made on the assumption that the same proportion of the estimated population in Connecticut aged 10 to 14 years, inclusive, was aged 14, but under 15, on September 1,1912, https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 62 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. as at the date of the census of 1910, and the population 10 to 14 years was estimated on the assumption that the annual increase after 1910 was equal to the average annual increase of the same age group between the censuses of 1900 and 1910. The proportions of children employed at each age are found by dividing the number of children who secured employment certificates previously to the given age by the number of children bom during the same year, the estimate for which has just been explained. The numbers of children at work have been corrected for cases of pseudo-unemployment occurring previously. The estimates are conservative, since an understatement of the number of children employed and the failure of children to certify their first positions would tend to decrease the proportion occupied at the different ages. Another source of error is the probable tendency among children nearing the age of 16, taking new positions, to fail to take out certificates as required. In such cases the children can more easily persuade employers that they are already 16 and do not, therefore, require certificates. 5. Industry of first employment: A failure of children to take out certificates, due to uneven enforcement of the law, might affect the distribution by industries if particular industries or particular locali ties with particular industries in them were especially affected by the omission of certificates.. But as the law is enforced uniformly throughout the State by agents of the State board of education, who use the same methods and follow the same instructions, even though the enforcement may not be so thorough in agricultural districts and the smaller towns as in the cities where the agents have their head quarters, this source of error is reduced to a minimum. 6. Duration of first employment: This duration is measured from the date of the beginning notice to the date of the termination notice, or to the sixteenth birthday. Errors in dating, such as occur when an employer delays in sending in a commencement notice and then gives the date of filling out the notice instead of the date when" the child actually began work, would affect the first date. The second date is subject to the same kind of error; delays in sending in termi nation notices accompanied by the use of the date of filling out the notice instead of the date when the child actually terminated the employment would tend to offset similar delays in beginning nptices, and, indeed, would probably more than offset them; for beginning notices can be checked with the child's application for a certificate, while if a termination notice is delayed or entirely omitted, there is no immediate way of checking it up unless the child takes another position. Among the 7,679 changes to new positions there were 148 in each of which a termination notice between two beginning notices was omitted. If no new position had been found before the sixteenth https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 63 birthday, such a case of omission of a termination notice would have been counted as one of employment until the sixteenth birthday in the position for which the termination notice had not been received. Such omissions of termination notice occurring some time before the child becomes 16 would be likely to be checked up by his applying for another certificate. Relatively few cases, therefore, would be found among those still employed after 21 months of work. The relative position of the industries in duration of first employment would not be affected by such omissions; indeed, it should be noted that the industry in which .the largest proportion of children remained longer than 21 months is also the one in which the smallest proportion left their first positions in the first 2 or 3 months of work. All cases of omission of a termination notice, however, would tend to lengthen somewhat the average duration of employment. In case of death, removal from the State, or return to school, the employment would usually be terminated earlier than it would normally have been. These cases would have an effect opposite to that of the omissions of termination notices. 7. Number of positions: The total number of positions held by all children at work in Connecticut is understated to an extent deter mined by the number of children who failed to secure any certificate and the number of positions for which children who had at least one employment certificate failed to secure certificates. The distribution of children with work histories of 21 to 24 months by number of positions is affected by failure to certify positions in the direction of classifying children as having fewer positions than they actually had. 8. Shifting: The classification of children with work histories of 21 to 24 months by type of worker is somewhat rough, since no account is taken of the amount of employment; the children are classified merely by the number of positions in relation to the length of the work history. This procedure classified in the more steadily working groups a few children who belong in the classes of the less steady workers, either because of their long periods of unemployment, or because they had more positions than they secured certificates for; the result gives a conservative figure for the number of shifting children. 9. Changes of position without intervening unemployment: The procedure of classifying a case where a termination notice was omitted between beginning notices as a change of position without intervening unemployment results in a slight overstatement of the number of changes of positions without unemployment intervening. This classi fication was adopted in order to understate rather than to overstate the number of cases of unemployment. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 64 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. 10. Pseudo-unemployment: The method of estimating the num ber of cases of pseudo-unemployment has been given in the appendix. The estimate has bedn used, first, to arrive at a fairly close state ment of the average duration of unemployment; secondly, to correct the monthly unemployment occurring in the different months of work history; and, finally, as a basis for estimating the number of children in the State employed at each age. For the first two pur poses, the weighted average of cases of unemployment which were pseudo-unemployment has been used and gives probably a fairly satisfactory correction. For the third correction the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment has been estimated by subtracting from the children not at work at 16 the number of children estimated to have been really unemployed at 16, assuming that the average dura tions of unemployment for the entire group applied to the actual number of cases of unemployment which commenced in the different months of work history. 11. Unemployment: By definition, an interval of one week or more between a termination notice and the next beginning notice, or the sixteenth birthday, is counted as a case of unemployment. Since the child is allowed to work one week on the parent’s copy of his first certificate before taking out a new one, and since, when sent in, the date entered on the beginning notice may be the date of filling it out rather than the date on which the child began work, it was deemed advisable to omit all cases where the interval between positions was less than one week. Delays in sending in beginning notices, together with errors in dating, would tend to lengthen, and similar delays in sending in termination notices with errors in dating would tend to lessen, the durations of unemployment; such errors, as stated above, are more apt to occur and are less easy to check in the termination than in the beginning notices. The correction for cases of pseudo-unemployment has already been described. 12. Rate of unemployment: To form the monthly rates of unem ployment the number of new cases of unemployment originating in a given month is divided by the number of children at work at the beginning of the same month, and the resulting quotient corrected to allow for the number of cases of pseudo-unemployment included in the number of cases of unemployment. In making the correction for the text the same factor was applied throughout. The analysis of the proportion of cases of unemployment which were pseudo unemployment shows that the proportion is relatively greater toward the later than at the earlier parts of the work histories, hence the decline in the monthly rates of becoming unemployed is slightly understated in the text. The rate of unemployment for the last months, on the other hand, may be slightly overestimated. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. 65 13. Duration of unemployment: Most of the sources of error in the duration of unemployment have already been discussed. Delays in sending in termination notices with substitution of date of filling out for date of actual termination of work would tend to shorten, and similar errors in dates of beginning notices tend to lengthen, the duration of periods of unemployment; but, as has been stated, the total result of all such delays would probably be to shorten the periods. On the other hand, the provisional period of work on the parent’s copy of the first certificate may work the other way for beginning notices. The duration of a period of unemployment lasting over one week is counted as the full time between the date of the termination and of the beginning notice, and therefore, if the beginning notice is not dated back to the day on which the child went to work on his parent’s copy, there may be an error up to one week in the actual and average duration of the period of unemploy ment. In this connection it should be remembered that it can not always be inferred that an interval between positions is unemployment in the ordinary sense. There is, however, no method for estimating the error from this source; it would probably affect the longer periods more than the shorter ones. The difference in average duration of periods of unemployment of boys and girls is not large, and probably not of very great sig nificance, similarly in regard to the difference shown for the earlier and later parts of the work histories. 175086°—2a 5 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis T able 1 .—Industry o f first employment by age at first employment: Number and per cent distribution of boys and girls of specified age at first employment, by industry of first employment. ■ BO Y S. Total. Industry of first employ m ent. 14-14J Per Per Num cent Num cent dis dis N um ber. tribu ber. tribu ber. tion. tion. All industries.............. 4,000 100.0 1,385 100.0 Manufacturing and mechamcal industries............ 2,838 71.0 997 M etal................................. 1,404 Textiles............................. '663 Clothing............................ 185 Food products................ 46 Wood products.............. 45 Leather goods................. 48 Chemical products____ 24 Bone products................ 85 Clay products.................. 29 Rubber goods................. 48 Electrical goods.............. 117 Printing............................ 72 O ther................................. 72 35.1 16.6 4.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.1 0.7 1.2 2.9 1.8 1.8 497 230 59 15 17 22 7 48 10 13 46 20 13 711 143 17.8 3.6 275 55 39 66 203 1.0 1.7 5.1 17 8 33 Trade........................................ Transportation....................... Personal and domestic service................................... Other........................................ N ot reported........................... 14b-14è 141-15 Per cent N um dis tribu ber. tion. 15-15J Per cent N um dis tribu ber. tion. 15J-16 Per Per cent Num cent dis dis tribu ber. tribu tion. tion. 634 100.0 935 100.0 732 100.0 314 72.0 444 70.0 672 502 68.6 223 71.0 35. 9 16.6 4.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.5 3.5 0.7 0.9 3.3 1.4 0.9 229 93 27 10 6 9 2 7 5 7 19 16 14 36 1 14.7 4.3 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.3 1.1 0.8 1.1 3.0 2.5 2.2 162 48 12 7 12 6 15 5 13 25 18 22 17.3 5.1 1.3 0.7 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.5 1.4 2. 7 1.9 2.4 124 40 7 13 3 7 13 6 9 21 14 14 16.9 5.5 1.0 1.8 0.4 1.0 1.8 0.8 1.2 2.9 1.9 1.9 120 54 11 2 2 2 2 2 3 6 6 4 9 38.2 17.2 3.5 0.6 0.6 0. 6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.3 2.9 19.9 4.0 114 21 18.0 3.3 157 29 16.8 3.1 121 26 16.5 3.6 44 12 14.0 2 3 1.2 0.6 2.4 5 16 34 0.8 2.5 5.4 9 19 49 1.0 2.0 5.2 6 16 61 0.8 2.2 8.3 2 7 26 0.6 2.2 8.3 609 100.0 249 100.0 71.9 100.0 GIRLS. A ll industries.............. 3,147 100.0 1,091 100.0 Manufacturing and me chanical industries............ 2,504 412 100.0 786 100.0 79.6 907 83.1 323 78.4 610 77.6 476 78.2 188 75.5 M etal................................. T extiles............................. Clothing............................ Food products................ Wood products.............. Leather goods................. Chemical products........ Bone products................ Clay products................. Rubber goods............... Electrical goods.............. Printing........................... O th er,............................... 664 835 431 61 132 22 38 79 13 60 120 20 29 21.1 26.5 13.7 1.9 4.2 0.7 1.2 2.5 0.4 1.9 3.8 0.6 0.9 212 317 184 20 55 13 6 28 4 14 48 4 2 19.4 29.1 16.9 1.8 5.0 1.2 0.5 2.6 0.4 1.3 4.4 0.4 0.2 91 104 51 8 16 2 5 7 3 11 15 3 7 22.1 25.2 12.4 1.9 3.9 0.5 1.2 1.7 0.7 2.7 3.6 0.7 1.7 182 199 91 15 •24 5 8 21 2 19 25 6 13 23.2 25.3 11.6 1.9 3.1 0.6 20.5 25.9 12.2 2.6 4.1 0.3 2.3 3.3 0.3 1.6 3.4 0.5 1.0 54 57 31 2 12 21.7 22.0 12 4 0 8 4 8 2.7 0.3 2.4 3.2 0.8 1.7 125 158 74 16 25 2 14 20 2 10 21 3 6 5 3 2 6 ii 4 1 2.fl 1.2 0.8 2.4 4.4 1.6 0.4 Trade...................................... •_ Transportation....................... Personal and domestic service................................. Other......................... N ot reported................... 522 4 16.6 0.1 150 13.7 72 17.5 144 3 18.3 0.4 106 1 17.4 0.2 50 20.1 28 12 77 0.9 0.4 2.4 14 5 15 1.3 0.5 1.4 4 1.0 0.4 0. 6 2.7 0.8 2 0 8 3.2 3 5 21 5 13 19 3.1 9 3.6 1.0 69 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Table 2.— Children having specified number of positions, by length of work history, and sex. Children having specified number of positions. Length of work history. Total. A ll durations............. 23 to 24 m onths.................... 22 m onths but less than 23 21 m onths but less than 22 20 m onths but less than 21 19 months but less than20. 18 months but less than 19 17 m onths but less than 18 16 months but less than 17 15 months but less than 16 14 m onths but less than 15 13 months but less than 14 12 m onths but less than 13 11 months but less than 12 10 months but less than 11 9 months but less than 10. 8 m onths but less than 9 .. 7 months but less than 8 . . 6 months but less than 7 .. 5 m onths but less than 6 .. 4 m onths but less than 5 .. 3 months but less than 4 .. 2 months but less than 3 .. 1 m onth but less than 2 . . . Less than 1 m on th.............. 7,147 3,367 474 1,863 247 ,470 571 435 371 340 335 312 310 302 287 245 265 306 264 210 207 183 171 141 124 114 81 73 30 114 58 17 13 12 ID 4 J 7 4 1 4 5 3 1 3 1 4 10 8 9 34 17 12 14 4 3 3 4 9 5 i 7 3 2 12 h 2 14 13 4 2 3 1 1 15 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 i i 1 2 i 2 BOYS. A ll durations............ 4,000 23 to 24 m onths.................... 22 m onths but less than 23 21 m onths but less than 22 20 m onths but less than 21 19 m onths but less than 20 18 months but less than 19 17 months but less than 18 16 months but less than 17 FRASER 817 323 245 228 207 199 164 174 Digitized for https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1,759 1,026 569 156 80 46 14 ii 7 5 1 6 3 2 2 4 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. '7 6 15 months but less than 16. 14 m onths but less than 15. 13 months but less than 14 12 months but less than 13. 11 months but less than 12. 10 months but less than 11. 9 months but less than 10. 8 months but less than 9 .. 7 months but less than 8 .. 6 months but less than 7 .. 5 months but less than 6 ,. 4 months but less than 5 .. 3 months but less than 4 .. 2 m onths but less than 3 .. 1 m onth but less than 2 . . . Less than 1 m o n th ............. 164 155 133 145 151 161 112 112 98 98 73 77 67 44 38 15 53 80 64 69 73 87 66 67 73 68 52 60 63 37 34 15 48 46 40 46 47 53 29 31 18 27 21 13 4 7 4 39 16 17 19 20 12 10 12 5 3 12 9 9 7 10 3 4 3 1 9 x2 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 GIRLS. 3,147 1,608 837 383 169 91 34 12 9 3 1 653 248 190 143 133 136 148 136 138 132 112 120 155 103 98 95 85 73 68 47 47 37 35 15 220 107 77 61 57 68 67 62 76 70 55 73 88 69 62 68 57 51 61 42 41 27 35 14 172 73 46 47 34 38 54 49 37 39 35 28 53 22 24 22 27 13 6 4 5 8 131 36 30 17 19 20 13 14 13 16 14 15 11 8 10 4 1 6 1 1 1 2 63 14 18 9 13 8, 11 5 5 4 7 2 3 3 41 11 9 5 7 1 2 4 4 3 1 1 11 5 8 2 2 ■ 7 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONNECTICUT. A ll durations............. 23 to 24 m on ths.................... 22 months but less than 23 21 m onths but less than 22 20 m onths but less than 21 19 months but less than 20. 18 months b u t less than 19. 17 months but less than 18. 16 months but less than 17. 15 months but less than 16. 14 months but less than 15. 13 months but less than 14. 12 months but less than 13. 11 months but less than 12. 10 m onths but less than 11. 9 months but less than 10.. 8 months but less than 9 . .. 7 months but less than 8 ... 6 months but less than 7 ... 5 months but less than 6 . .. 4 months but less than 5 . .. 3 months but less than 4 ... 2 months but less than 3 . .. 1 month but less than 2 ___ Less than 1 m on th............. . 72 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. T a b l e 3. —Boys and girls in whose work histories specified number of termination notices were missing, by length of work history.1 Children w ith specified number of m issing termination notices. Length of work history. Total. A ll children................................................. 145 1 Total. 2 142 10 2 3 2 1 32 11 8 11 10 7 3 10 9 7 4 5 10 2 3 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 3 2 33 12 8 11 11 7 3 10 9 7 4 3 1 1 1 85 Total. 2 1 83 20 4 4 8 5 4 2 7 9 6 2 2 4 2 1 1 1 19 4 4 8 4 4 2 7 9 6 2 2 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i N o cases of missing beginning notices were found. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Girls.; Boys. Total. 2 1 1 2 1 60 59 13 8 4 3 6 3 1 3 13 7 4 3 6 3 1 3 1 2 3 6 1 2 3 6 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 T a b l e 4 . —Cases of unemployment originating in specified month of work history, by length of work history and sex of child. (2) 59 25 24 8 18 9 9 11 (3) • 133 up 114 94 72 50 33 60 44 14 18 18 9 12 9 5 12 ( (3) 53 32 7 9 (2) Twenty-fourth. | 166 60 21 18 16 14 13 14 9 10 (3) Twenty-third. 178 76 31 28 14 13 18 8 7 10 6 (1) Twenty-second. 212 77 35 21 8 16 1316 10 11 9 5 (S) Twenty-first. 226 Twentieth. 80 35 28 21 17 19 14 15 19 7 17 12 13 10 10 10 3 (3) Nineteenth. 59 27 19 18 16 6 10 8 17 12 9 7 (6) 84 89 33 39 21 23 12 19 17 18 19 16 17 14 19 IS 24 • 18 9 8 15 8 4 6 8 10 10 12 6 13 2 6 8 5 12 5 6 (3) (2) Eighteenth. 80 20 19 18 15 12 15 13 11 11 8 11 9 (4) 319 Seventeenth. Twelfth. 214 62 35 21 26 14 19 10 13 15 9 12 12 8 9 (2) 333 Sixteenth. Eleventh. 246 82 69 37 36 25 31 27 22 23 21 12 * 16 14 • i o 13 15 16 20 12 10 14 15 9 8 8 13 7 11 7 7 13 (4) (2) 319 Fifteenth. Tenth. 267 339 Fourteenth. j N inth. 310 Eighth. 106 45 42 24 28 32 16 26 23 23 25 20 19 16 16 17 15 12 6 6 93 33 25 21 26 10 19 19 13 9 19 11 15 13 13 8 10 14 9 7 (2) Seventh. 389 | Sixth. 524 Fifth. Fourth. 556 142 117 72 43 39 38 32 36 42 .32 43 32 36 29 30 31 28 29 33 16 25 35 23 32 25 31 17 25 18 23 12 12 15 15 12 13 7 7 6 4 5 9 6 4 ( ...) (1) j Third. 741 16 59 45 36 31 (16) 16 15 11 (2) 7 7 (3) 9 (5) (3) CONNECTICUT. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Second. A ll children.................................................. 5,961 23 to 24 m on ths...................................................... 1,679 22 m onths but less than 23.................................. 675 21 months but less than 22.................................. 492 20 m onths but less than 21.................................. 361 19 m onths but less than 20.................................. 360 18 m onths but less than 19.................................. 305 17 m onths but less than 18.................................. 263 16 m onths but less than 17.................................. 260 15 m onths but less than 16.................................. 267 14 m onths but less than 15.................................. 177 13 months but less than 14.................................. 188 12 m onths but less than 13.................................. 163 11 months but less than 12.................................. 166 10 m onths but less than 11.................................. 140 9 months but less than 10.................................... 117 8 m onths but less than 9...................................... 95 7 m onths but less than 8...................................... 70 6 m onths but less than 7...................................... 73 5 months but less than 6...................................... 44 4 months but less than 5...................................... 28 3 months but less than 4...................................... 16 2 months but less than 3...................................... 17 1 m onth but less than 2............... . ...................... 4 Less than 1 m onth................................................. 1 First. Total. Length of work history and sex. Thirteenth Cases of unem ploym ent originating in specified month of work history. T a b l e 4 . —Cases —■7 of unemployment originating in specified month of work history, by length of work history and sex of child Continued. 23 to 24 m onths..................... 22 months but less than 23. 21 months but less than 22. 20 months but less than 21. 19 months but less than 20. 18 months but less than 19. 17 months but less than 18. 16 months but less than 17. 15 months but less than 16. 14 months but less than 15. 13 months but less than 14. 12 months but less than 13. 11 months but less than 12. 10 months but less than 11. 9 m onths but less than 10.. 8 months but less than 9 ... 7 months but less than 8 ... 6 months but less than 7 ... 5 months but less than 6 ... 4 months but less than 5-.. 3 months but less than 4 ... 2 months but less than 3 ... 1 m onth but less than 2— Less than 1 m on th.............. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1,040 '462 317 240 250 218 162 149 165 99 104 84 54 22 19 24 30 20 17 18 23 13 73 27 21 25 24 25 17 16 20 10 7 72 22 29 18 19 20 8 13 11 12 12 59 24 15 14 19 6 10 11 6 3 11 97 18 16 12 5 54 55 28 23 17 15 8 13 11 15 16 10 12 8 14 ‘ 11 12 15 4 3 8 4 7 5 55 22 16 15 9 15 ii 7 12 3 12 7 54 ,43 25 25 12 20 18 18 14 16 7 11 7 7 12 7 10 16 6 ►6 7 8 4 6 7 8 ( ...) 48 15 13 12 12 10 8 8 6 6 5 34 17 14 11 13 4 7 6 11 5 4 6 8 (3) (3) 54 26 12 4 11 8 10 4 6 52 44 20 19 10 10 12 6 4 4 4 (1) 41 14 13 6 9 10 12 6 6 (2) 70 85 32 .20 15 5 12 8 6 5 (2) 37 25 14 8 16 15 4 ' 7 4 19 4 5 6 ( ...) (D 64 49 34 20 Twenty-fourth. 60 j 105 | Twenty-third. 119 Twenty-second. 134 | Twenty-first. 146 J 133 34 24 14 20 10 16 7 7 10 7 10 (?) 1. . . . . . . 159 | Twentieth. N inth. 195 Nineteenth.- Eighth. 208 Eighteenth. Seventh. 212 Seventeenth. Sixth. 205 Sixteenth. Fifth. 224 Fifteenth. Fourth. 234 Fourteenth. Third. 315 | Thirteenth. Second. 354 Twelfth. First. 457 Tenth. Total. 3,771 00 B o y s................................. 11 26 33 30 24 18 (ID 9 (2) — 18 15 10 6 (i) 4 8 5 (3) 5 6 (3) (l) INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY 03? CHILD WORKERS. Length of work history and sex Eleventh. Cases of unem ployment originating in specified month of work history. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 202 209 155 115 44 16 17 7 8 7 12 14 9 6 8 8 9 5 8 3 7 6 3 34 23 13 6 9 12 8 13 12 11 13 10 7 5 7 8 8 5 1 4 34 9 10 7 7 4 9 8 7 6 8 5 10 3 8 2 6 7 2 3 ( ...) 30 10 6 4 6 3 5 5 9 5 7 3 3 3 7 2 3 ( ...) ( ...) 114 121 34 11 6 6 3 6 6 7 6 5 4 1 3 5 4 2 3 2 3 5 ( ...) (1) 25 13 12 6 8 4 3 8 7 4 5 5 6 3 6 5 111 115 89 26 28 28 12 11 11 11 7 13 4 9 6 7 7 4 5 5 3 7 3 3 3 6 6 4 6 5 '4' 6 2 2 7 7 2 3 5 2 4 7 5 4 3 2 4 ( ...) 6 ( ...) ( ...) 87 81 80 78 59 61 48 32 5 6 6 3 2 7 5 5 5 3 6 1 (1) 25 10 5 7 3 2 3 2 6 7 5 3 (3) 23 32 9 11 9 9 4 4 5 3 5 6 6 2 6 3 5 6 2 4 3 ( ...) (1) 19 7 5 10 5 3 2 3 4 0) 27 5 9 3 6 1 3 6 0) 23 19 6 4 2 9 5 2 3 2 1 4 6 ( ...) (2) 40 50 34 23 16 13 5 27 26 15 12 13 I t ) 14 1 2 (1) 5 1 (2) 3 3 2 4 (2) 3 (-•) 0) 0) CONNECTICUT. 23 to 24 m onths..................... 22 months but less than 23. 21 m onths but less than 22. 20 months but less than 2 1 . 19 months but less than 20. 18 months but less than 19. 17 months but less than 18. 16 months but less than 17. 15 months but less than 16. 14 months but less than 15. 13 months but less than 14. 12 months but less than 13. 11 m onths but less than 12. 10 m onths but less than 11. 9 months but less than 10.. 8 months but less than 9 ... 7 months but less than 8 ... 6 months but less than 7 ... 5 months but less than 6 ... 4 m onths but less than 5 ... 3 months but less than 4 ... 2 m onths but less than 3 ... 1 m onth but less than 2___ Less than 1 m onth............... T a b l e 5. —Childrev «5 with specified number of cases of unemployment, by length of work history, and sex. 05 Children with specified number of cases of unemployment. Length of work history. 23 months hu t less than 24....................................................-■......... 22 months hu t less than 23........................................................ - - 21 months hut less than 22............................................................... 20 months hut less than 21............................................................... 19 months h u t less than 20............................................................... 18 months hu t less than 19......................................................... - - 17 months but less than 18.............................................................. 16 months h u t less than 17............................................................... 15 months h u t less than 16............................... .............. - ............... 14 months hu t less than 15............................................................... 13 months h u t less than 14............................................................. 12 months hu t less than 13............................................................... 10 months bu t less than 11............................................................... 9 months h u t less than 10................................................................. None. 1 7,147 3,636 2,042 1,470 571 435 371 340 335 312 310 302 287 245 265 306 264 210 207 183 171 141 124 114 81 73 30 599 237 185 167 150 157 135 147 141 163 120 154 175 158 124 126 122 112 103 99 99 65 69 29 425 158 109 115 93 99 116 100 90 86 79 71 103 80 63 69 52 46 32 22^ 14 15 4 1 4 3 2 6 5 891 343 139 53 26 12 1 241 91 90 48 50 44 - 47 40 46 27 36 30 21 20 17 11 9 12 6 3 1 1 116 39 28 25 29 27 52 28 10 20 10 5 5 1 8 15 16 9 6 8 7 4 5 9 13 4 2 5 8 1 2 2 2 i 9 5 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 6 2 1 1 1 11 10 9 8 7 12 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 ..... 1 1 BOYS. . All durations............ 23 months hat less than 24. 22 months hut less than 23. 21 months hut less than 22. 20 months hut less than 21. 19 months hu t less than 20. 18 months but less than 19 17 months hut less than 18 16 months hut less than 17 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 000 323 245 207 1,899 91 1,159 63 538 224 104 38 24 ii 135 68 37 17 10 4 58 18 10 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ... 1 1 1 2 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. A ll durations....................., ...................................................... Total. 16 months but less than 16......................... ..................................... 13 months bu t less than 14............................................................... 12 months bu t les3 than 13....................; .............v................. 11 months bu t less than 12............................................................... 10 months bu t less than 11............................................................... 9 months b u t less than 10......................................... ..................... 8 months b u t less than 9 ................................................................... 7 months b u t less than 8 .................................................................. 6 months b u t less than 7 ................................................................ 5 months b u t less than 6 ................................................................... 4 months bu t less than 5 ............................................................... .. 3 months b u t less than 4 .................................................'............... 2 months bu t less than 3 ................................................................... 164 155 133 145 151 161 112 112 98 98 73 67 44 38 15 69 87 65 76 76 92 63 62 69 67 42 51 36 38 15 49 48 43 45 59 52 37 39 23 24 28 13 10 8 28 13 19 16 10 13 10 10 6 7 s 3 1 12 5 3 7 6 ’2 1 i 6 1 2 1 2 . Spas BMB 1 1 1 1 GIRLS. 3,147 1,737 883 354 119 23 months b u t less than 24............................... ............................... 653 248 190 143 133 136 148 136 138 132 112 120 155 103 98 95 85 73 68 47 47 - 37 35 15 286 122 94 72 69 77 70 62 72 76 55 78 99 66 61 64 53 45 61 38 43 29 31 14 193 72 46 40 32 41 60 50 41 38 36 26 44 28 26 30 29 22 4 9 4 7 4 1 106 34 32 19 21 11 15 15 18 14 17 14 11 7 7 1 3 5 3 48 11 10 9 8 5 2 6 4 4 3 1 1 2 4 13 months bu t less than 14.............................................................. 12 months bu t less than 13.............................................................. 11 months b u t less than 1 2 . . , ................... ................... ................ 10 months bu t less than 11.............................................................. 9 months bu t less than 10................................................................. 7 months bu t less than 8 .................................................................. 5 months bu t less than 6 ................................................................... 4 months but less than 5 ................................................................... 3 months bu t less than 4 ................................................................... 2 months but less than 3 .................................................................. 1 month but less than 2 .............................................. ..................... Less than 1 m onth.............................................................................. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 1 35 15 * 5 6 3 1 2 2 15 2 3 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 l l l i . CO N N EC TIC U T. A ll durations................................ ............................................ 78 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. T able Q—Children employed at beginning of specified month of work history, according to length of work history, and sex. Children employed at beginning of specified m onth of work history. Length of work history. First. A ll durations. 23 to 24 m onths....................... 22 m onths but less th a n 23.. 21 m onths b u t less th an 22.. 20 m onths but 1ess th a n 21.. 19 m onths bu t 1ess th a n 20.. 18 m onths bu t less th a n 19.. 17 m onths bu t less th a n 18-. 16 m onths b u t 1ess th a n 17. 15 m onths b u t 1ess th a n 16. 14 m onths b u t 1ess th a n 15. 13 m onths b u t less th a n 14. 12 m onths b u t 1ess th a n 13. 11 m onths b u t less th a n 12. 10 m onths but less th an 11. 9 m onths but less th an 10-. 8 m onths b u t less than 9 ... 7 m onths bu t less th an 8 ... 6 m onths b u t 1ess than 7 ... 5 m onths b u t 1ess th an 6 ... 4 m onths b u t less th an 5 ... 3 m onths b u t 1ess th an 4 ... 2 m onths b u t 1ess th a n 3 . .. 1 m onth but less than 2— Less than 1 m on th............... Thir Nine Fourth. Seventh. teenth. teenth. Second. Third. 6,420 6,122 1,332 502 400 335 303 295 284 278 269 257 221 235 272 232 189 187 171 158 132 118 108 *73 (69) 1,285 485 384 327 288 281 262 262 258 253 218 224 266 230 182 180 164 153 131 7,147 470 571 435 371 340 335 312 310 302 287 245 265 306 264 210 207 183 171 141 124 114 81 73 (30) 112 107 (VO) 5,472 4,317 2,841 ,262 462 364 319 280 267 261 260 249 240 204 219 261 220 179 173 158 150 128 114 (103) 1,228 459 360 314 274 270 255 258 253 243 198 228 260 218 177 184 153 (140) 1,240 467 354 300 275 281 257 254 240 247 183 (219) 1,204 468 332 310 263 (264) 3,228 3,014 2,387 1,582 5,873 BOYS. Al 1 durations...................................... 23 to 24 m on ths....................... 22 m onths but less than 23.. 21 m onths but less than 22.. 20 m onths but less than 21. 19 m onths b u t less than 20.. 18 m onths but 1ess th an 19. 17 m onths bu t less th an 18. 16 m onths b u t less than 17. 15 m onths b u t less th an 16. 14 m onths bu t less th an 15. 13 m onths bu t less than 14. 12 m onths but less th an 13. 11 m onths b u t less than 12. 10 m onths but less th an 11. 9 m onths but less than 10.. 8 m onths but less than 9 ... 7 m onths b u t less than 8 ... 6 m onths b u t less than 7 ... 5 m onths but less than 6 ... 4 m onths but less than 5 ... 3 m onths but less than 4 ... 2 m onths but less than 3 ... 1 m onth but less than 2— Less than 1 m onth............... 3,557 4,000 817 323 245 228 207 199 164 174 164 155 133 145 151 161 112 112 98 98 73 77 67 44 38 (15) 3,374 733 275 224 211 183 172 148 156 142 134 121 124 130 140 97 99 94 91 707 268 216 199 173 159 135 152 134 132 118 117 125 138 93 93 91 90 68 66 66 72 64 41 (38) 63 (39) 686 257 196 191 166 153 134 152 132 126 111 116 122 133 94 64 71 (58) 667 254 192 188 163 159 131 146 135 132 106 124 123 131 100 97 85 (81) 673 260 195 178 165 163 130 145 126 135 99 ( 118; 2,458 1,930 647 260 179 191 156 (149) GIRLS. A ll durations...................................... 7 monlhb l)u.t less tliflil 8............................. 5 months but less than 6............................. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3,147 653 248 190 143 133 136 148 13ft 138 132 112 120 155 103 98 95 85 73 68 2,863 599 227 176 124 120 123 136 122 127 123 100 111 142 92 92 88 77 67 64 2,748 2,645 578 217 168 128 115 122 127 110 124 121 100 107 141 92 89 87 73 63 65 576 205 168 128 114 114 127 108 117 114 93 103 139 87 85 84 69 62 64 561 205 168 126 111 111 124 112 118 111 92 104 137 87 77 87 68 (59) 567 207 159 122 110 118 127 109 114 112 84 (101) 1,259 557 208 153 119 107 (115) 79 CONNECTICUT. Table 6.—Children employed at beginning of specified month of work history, according to length of work history, and sea:—Continued. GIRL S—C ontinued. Children em ployed at beginning of specified m onth of work history. Length of work history. First. 4 months but less than 5............................. 3 m onths bu t less than 4............................. 2 m onths but less than 3............................. 1 month but less than 2.............................. Less than 1 m on th............. .......................... 47 47 37 35 (15) Second. 46 44 32 (31) Third. 46 44 (31) Fourth. Seventh. Thir teenth. Nine teenth. 43 (45) T a b l e 7. —Number of cases of unemployment in specified month of work history per 100 children employed at beginning of the month, by length of work history, and sex. Length of work history. Number of cases of unem poym ent in specified m onth of work history per 100 children employed at beginning of the month.1 First. Second. Third. Fourth. Seventh. Thir N ine teenth. teenth. A ll children: Average...................... 10.4 8.8 8.6 6.7 23 to 24 m onths.............................................. 22 months but less than 23......................... 21 months but less than 22......................... 20 months bu t less than 21......................... 19 months but less than 20......................... 18 months but less than 19......................... 17 months but less than 18......................... 16 months but less than 17......................... 15 months bu t less than 16....................... 14 m onths but less than 15......................... 13 m onths but less than 14....................... . 12 months but less than 13....................... 11 months but less than 12......................... 10 months but less than 11......................... 9 months but less than 10......................... 8 m onths but less than 9............................. 7 months but less than 8............................. 6 months but less than 7........................... 5 m onths but less than 6............................. 4 m onths but less than 5............................. 3 months but less than 4........................... Boys: Average....................................... 9.7 12.6 9.0 9.7 12.4 12.8 11.5 10.0 9.3 11.5 10.2 13.2 10.5 11.7 11.9 11.1 8.2 8.8 9.2 4.8 4.4 11.5 8.8 8.6 9.5 9.6 10.6 10. 8 10.2 10.8 10.8 6.2 6.8 9.8 9.2 7.3 9.5 6.4 * 7.0 7.6 5.3 5.9 3.7 10.1 8.2 9.3 10.9 7.3 9.7 11.4 6.1 9.9 8.9 9.1 11.5 8.9 7.1 7.0 8.8 9.4 9.1 7.8 4. 6 5.4 4.7 9.4 7.‘4 7.1 6.9 6.6 9.3 3. 7 7.3 7.3 5.2 3. 7 9.3 5.0 ' 5.7 5.9 7.3 4. 6 6.3 9.3 7.0 6.1 7.3 > 7.2 6.3 23 to 24 m onths.............................................. 22 months but less than 23....................... 21 months but less than 2 2....................... 20 months but less than 21......................... 19 months but less than 20......................... 18 m onths but less than 19......................... 17 months but less than 18....................... . 16 months but less than 17......................... 15 m onths but less than 16......................... 14 m onths but less than 15......................... 13 m onths but less than 14......................... 12 months but less than 13....................... 11 m onths but less than 12..................... 10 months b u t less than 11................... 9 months b u t less than 10........................... 8 months but less than 9............................. Girls: Average........................................ 10.3 16.7 9.0 8.3 11.6 15.1 12.2 9.8 11.0 14.8 9.8 17.9 11.9 12.4 17.0 15.2 9.0 10.0 9.8 9.4 11.8 13.1 10.2 8.2 13.4 9.0 11.0 12. 6 5.9 8. 6 8. 2 9.1 10. 2 8.6 9.3 7.7 7.3 11.4 3. 9 7. 5 7.2 4. 6 2. 4 9. 9 5.2 4.1 7.5 8.2 8. 7 8.3 8.0 5.5 9 4 8 4 4. 8 8. 9 2 | 11.3 5; 6 5. 7 5.3 4.0 8.0 10.0 6.2 2.2 6.7 4 9 7 7 2.8 4. 8 3.7 7.1 7.7 6.0 5.0 4.3 4 .3 23 to 24 m onths.............................................. 22 months but less than 23......................... 21 months but less than 22......................... 20 months but less than 21......................... 19 months but less than 20........................ 18 months but less than 19......................... 17 months but less than 18......................... 16 months but less than 17......................... 15 months but less than 16......................... 14 months but less than 15......................... 13 months but less than 14......................... 12 months but less than 13......................... 11 months but less than 12............... 10 months but less than 11............... 8.9 7.3 8.9 11.9 13.5 9. 6 10.8 10.3 7.2 7.6 10.7 7.5 9.0 10.7 7.3 7.0 9.7 5.6 6.7 5. 7 8.8 11. 5 7.1 4.9 SrO 7.2 6.3 5.9 10.6 7.7 4.7 7.8 9.8 6.3 11.8 9. 7 9.1 13.0 9.3 5.0 5.9 4.4 6.0 5.5 6.1 3. 5 7.1 7.4 6.0 5.3 4.5 6.3 7.1 4.8 7.2 3. 6 2.4 7.1 5. 9 3.6 4.1 4.3 5.7 3.3 4.5 4. 2 4 7 5 5 4 4 3.6 4 .8 6 .7 2 .0 1 .7 4.9 7.2 4. 8 4.4 11. 5 10.3 14.1 7.5 5.8 12.1 12.3 8.6 9. 6 8.0 6.2 7.6 7.8 6.7 1 6.2 7.0 5 5 7.5 2.9 8. 6 5.3 5.6 4. 6 5. 6 5.4 2.0 1 N ot shown where base is less than 100, or for “ fringe” months. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5.4 4.3 6. 2 7. 5 5.9 2.7 5.8 4 5 6 2 2 9 4 6 2 6 2.7 4 4 6 8 2 3 2 !3 3.4 • 4 .4 4 .0 6.9 4 .5 2.6 3 .8 2.8 T able 8.—Cases of unemployment originating in specified months of work history, according to whether terminated or not terminated at the sixteenth birthday, and duration of unemployment, for work histories from 21 to 24 months. Oo W O R K H IST O R IE S OF 23 TO 24 M ONTHS. Cases of unemployment originating in specified m onth of work history. •a o 6h 1 pH •d d p o© CO 'Ó 3 Eh 4 d o Ph  À *Ph ' 1 £ S OQ œ À 2 k À 4-5 £ .g £ A ll children............................................................................... 1,679 142 •lit 106 93 84 89 80 82 69 Cases terminated before sixteenth birthday................................ 1,370 T&T ~1Ï4~ 100 “86" ~rf "76" ~75~ ~72~ ~62~ 56 40 42 40 43 34 36 32 682 51 Less than 1 m onth.......................... ........................................... 296 23 20 27 15 14 13 20 12 17 1 month, but less than 2 ............................................................ 9 5 7 6 4 120 14 6 11 11 2 m onths, but less than 3 . . ....................................................... 1 3 6 4 6 2 5 4 62 6 3 months, but less than 4 ........................................................... 1 3 2 39 1 4 4 8 3 4 m onths, but less than 5.......................................................... T 2 1 2 3 49 8 6 5 5 m onths, but less than 6 ........................................................... 2 2 4 5 3 2 30 2 3 6 m onths, but less than 7 ........................................................... 1 1 ‘T 3 4 22 7 *1 '1 7 m onths, but less than 8........................................................... i 1 2 1 1 4 14 8 m onths, but less than 9 ........................................................... " T 3 13 3 4 1 1 2 1 1 " i‘ 14 5 2 2 2 8 i 1 1 1 11 2 2 12 months, but less than 13....................................................... 1 1 2 3 (1) (-) 1 Í (--) (--) i 1 1 3 (-> ( ï 16 months, but less than 17....................................................... ( > 1 1 n ( ï( ) 1 (1) ( ) Cases not terminated at sixteenth b irth d ay............................... 309 (--) ( ..) ( ■> 4 3 d © .© A © fr> w À 62 80 55~ HiT 30 37 10 16 5 2 1 7 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 •y i ‘ (i) ( . .) (--) 4 *® (4 © 4© 4> H 2 Eh À 4-5 s© i © Ph À À $© "3 © 4© -5 s© d © s S' > © CO CO H 4 © © 76 60 59 61 ~45~ 41 34 21 22 6 11 13 2 4 7 1 4 2 1 2 3 2 7 1 1 2 'T (...) 2 1 (--) (- .) 1 (--) (--) 59 ÜT 23 17 4 2 1 2 34-5 77 67 31 18 8 4 À 4-5 „ 4 s© © .g & 44» .8 4-5 d © It 60 44 53 59 50 "32~ I T 29 25 15 17 21 11 11 14 5 2 3 6 3 1 3 2 (--) 3 ‘ (2) (1) f-1 T? 4-5 § »H © y=3 © 4-5 44» d d © i Eh Eh 45 17 14 2 (1) (-) 36 13 12 CD (--) À s 3 fi 4-5 *8 >» 4-5 d d © © p ► Eh Eh 31 6 16 <3 (--) (--) (..) (--) <") (i) (1) (-•) ( ) (--) ( ) 6 7 7 13 5 30 7 7 11 8 10 15 15 18 10 25 12 W O R K H IST O R IE S OF 22 M ONTHS B U T LESS T H A N 23. A ll children................................................................................ Less than 1 m on th...................... .......................................- — https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis G75 72 43 45 33 33 39 35 36 37 35 20 27 35 31 21 25 14 18 32 16 15 557 268 69 32 39 11 42 13 30 15 32 18 36 17 32 15 31 19 30 13 34 14 16 12 24 16 28 13 24 8 19 12 20 8 12 5 11 6 11 7 7 6 7 5 11 2 .... 3 (3) (--) . . . . INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS Termination and duration of unem ployment. À 4-5 175086°—20- I ll 48 37 20 13 11 16 8 4 7 5 6 1 6 5 6 1 4 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 11 4 3 2 1 9 1 2 1 2 8 2 1 6 1 1 1 1 9 5 2 2 8 3 1 3 1 1 5 1 2 1 1 4 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 (--) ( . .) (--) (--) ( . .) ( . .) ( . .) (..') (--) 1 1 ( . .) ( ) 118 9 2 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 (--) ( ) (--) ( . .) ( . .) 4 3 3 9 4 2 1 2 1 1 4 5 1 3 7 3 4 2 1 (2) 9 9 3 3 3 2 2 ( )( > 1 i i r ) ( ) 2 4 2 1 (TJ ( ) 2 '2 1 i (--) ( ) 1 1 i ( . .) ( ) 1 1 ( . .) ( ) 2 1 1 2 (1) < i ( . .) ( ) ( . .) ( . .) ( 1( > ( ) ( . .) ( . .) 4 2 I ( ) 1 3 3 5 7 3 7 7 2 5 2 7 21 9 8 8 W ORK H IST O R IE S OF 21 MONTHS, B U T L ESS T H A N 22. All children...................................... ........................................ Cases terminated before sixteenth birthday................................ 1 m onth, but less than 2 ___. . . . ___ ___; ............................... 2 months, but less than 3 ........................................................... 3 months) but less than-4........................................................... 4 months) but less than 5 ........................................................... 5 months) but less than 6 ........................................................... 6 months) but less than 7 ........................................................... 7 months) but less than 8 ........................................................... 8 months) but less than 9 ........................................................... 9 months) but less than 10......................................................... 10 m onths, but less than 11....................................................... 11 months) but less than 12....................................................... 12 months) but less than 13...................................... .......... . 13 months) but less than 14....................................................... 14 months) but less than 15....................................................... 15 months) but less than 1C....................................................... 16 months) but less than 17....................................................... 17 months) but less than 18....................................................... 18 months) but less than 19....................................................... 19 months) bu i less than 20....................................................... 20 months) but less than 21....................................................... 21 months) but less than 22....................................................... Cases not terminated at sixteenth birthday................................ https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 492 400" 198 70 44 32 16 10 9 4 1 6 6 1 1 1 1 92 39 37 15 7 4 5 2 2 1 1 38 36 16 4 4 2 1 3 3 2 1 42 25 21 23 28 39 *22" 20 IgT 23 16 13 12 10 15 1 3 3 3 6 1 1 3 2 2 1 6 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 25 24 10 4 5 2 i i i 1 ( . .) ( . .) ( > ( . .) ( ) (1) ( . .) ( . .) ( . .) (--) ( ) (--) n (--) ( . .) ( . .) 5 2 3 3 1 2 4 31 21 19 28 ~I8" 18 11 9 7 8 4 9 i 5 i 2 2 1 1 2 19 28 18 23 l2 ~ 11 7 4 6 2 1 i 2 1 1 ( ..} ( 1( i ( )( 1 1 1 ( . .) ( ) ( . .) ( . .) (--) ( . .) ( . .) (--) ( ) 1 4 9 2 2 1 1 21 .] 6 6 1 5 2 1 1 24 18 ~I5~ 10 8 5 1 4 2 2 1 1 (1) ( . .) ( . .) ( . .) 11 7 7 3 1 1 8 1 ( \ (1) 6 1 (--) i ) (1) ( ) (?) ( ) ( ) 24 15 10 3 2 CONNECTICUT, 1 month, but less than 2 .......................... ................................. 2 months, but less than 3 ........................................................... 3 months) but less than 4 ........................................................... 4 months) but less than 5 . ......................................„................. 5 months) but less than 6 ................1........................’ .............. 6 months) but less than 7 .......................................................... 7 months) but less than 8 ........................................................... 8 months) but less than 9 ........................................................... 9 months) but less than 10......................................................... 10 month’s , but less than 11....................................................... 11 months) but less than 12....................................................... 12 months) but less than 13....................................................... 13 months) but less than 14................... . ................................. 14 months) but less than 15....................................................... 15 months) but less than 10....................................................... 16 months) but loss than 17....................................................... 17 months) but less than 18....................................................... 18 months) but less than 19....................................................... 19 months) but less than 20....................................................... 20 months) but less than 21....................................................... 21 months) but less than 22..................................................... 22 months) but less than 23..........; ................................... . Cases not terminated at sixteenth birthday................................ 1 1 3 3 5 5 6 9 8 9 3 6 7 2 00 T a b l e 9 . —Average 00 'percentage of periods of unemployment with specified duration, by length of work history and sex of child. to 3 but under 4 months. I 2 but under 1 3 months. I 4 but under 1 5 months. 5 but under 6 months. i 6 but under 1 7 months. 7 but under 8 months. but under 9 months. 8 9 but under 1 0 m onths. 1 0 but under 1 1 months. 1 1 b u t under 1 2 months. but under 13 months. 12 13 but tinder 14 months. 14 but under 15 m onths. 15 but under 16 months. 16 but under 17 m onths. 17 b u t under 18 months. I 18 but under 1 19 m onths. 19 but under 2 0 months. 2 0 but under 2 1 m onths. 2 1 but under 2 2 months. 22 but under 23 months. Per cent terminated w ith specified duration among periods of unemployment originating in work histories of— 23 to 24 months. Per cent. Number. Termi nated w ith specified duration. ALL CHILDEEN. Less than 1 m on th....................................... 5,683 2,197 38.7 41.4 40.0 40.9 40.6 42.5 37.4 34.7 37.0 39.8 34.5 30.8 31.8 35.8 29.1 34.2 32.1 26.2 35.4 37.1 31.6 33.3 44.4 1 m onth hut less than 2 . ........................ .. 5,469 913 16.7 18.5 16.8 14.7 16.8 1 2 .0 15.9 14.0 19.4 15.6 13.8 14.5 20.7 1 1 .2 20.7 19.8 17.6 18.3 2 2 .6 15.4 15.4 5,227 414 7.9 7,7 7.6 9.3 8 . 2 8.5 6 .1 8 . 8 6.5 7.3 9.5 8.5 7.0 9.2 7.3 8 . 8 6.5 11.5 2 .6 1 0 .0 33.3 \ 946 272 5 5 4.2 6 . 2 6 . 8 5.9 4.2 4.5 5.5 6.4 6.5 6 .6 7.8 6.7 6 . 6 1 0 .1 7.1 5.0 7.1 6.7 4 m onths but less than 5............................. 4,662 174 3.7 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.5 4.7 6 .0 4.4 4.2 3.4 4.7 4.3 4.5 6.4 3.4 5.6 7.7 147 3.4 3.3 2.3 2.5 3.0 5.6 2.5 2 ,6 2 .0 3.2 9.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.2 3.4 5.7 4 387 .9 6.3 3.3 4.7 2.3 4.3 4 J07 96 2 ,3 2 2 2 .0 2.4 2 .1 1 .1 2 .2 2 ,8 1 .1 2.3 4.8 3,827 1 .1 1 .2 1.4 1 .8 1.7 2 .6 3.1 4.0 3.4 2 .6 4.2 75 2 . 0 1.7 3.1 3 624 .8 .6 1.9 1.5 1 .1 3.6 1.3 1 .0 •43 1 2 1 2 1.4 -3 2 .3 1 1 7 1.4 1 Q 2 . 2 2.7 1.7 .9 40 J) 2.5 1 3 1 fi 2 .0 1.9 .5 2.3 4.6 1 .6 45 ,7 1 .2 2,580 7 1.3 19 ._4 1 .6 1.3 .4 .7 2 .0 1 .1 1 .0 2,279 1 .6 22 1 .0 1 .2 5 ,1 .7 l'990 .3 .9 1 .2 6 .4 .5 L737 1.9 * .1 .1 l' 467 2 .9 l ' 21 0 5 .5 .4 2 .2 2 '964 .2 .2 .5 1 .1 731 .6 0 519 0 331 0 142 BOYS. Less than 1 m on th....................................... 1 m onth but less than 2.............................. 2 months but less than 3............................ 3 months but less than 4............................. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3,595 1,417 39.4 41.9 40.8 39.0 39.7 42.7 39.6 33.3 44.1 43.3 39.8 28.7 34.0 31.4 24.7 43.3 38.5 26.7 32.4 32.0 35.7 20.0 33.3 577 16.6 17.5 17.9 14.7 18.9 13.1 14.9 13.3 16.1 15.7 14.8 15.5 19.1 11.3 24.4 18.2 14.9 25.9 25.9 16.7 16.7 3,467 __ 15.4 40.0 265 8.0 8.2 7.7 10.1 8.2 7.5 6.5 8.7 3.8 6.1 10.8 7.6 7.3 13.5 6.8 9.8 2.3 13.6 3,306 3,136 171 5.5 3.8 6.9 5.7 6.5 5.6 4.2 5.3 7.8 8.1 2.6 8.5 6.6 8.6 9.0 4.1 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS, Duration of unemployment and sex. Total that could have 1 terminated w ith speci fied duration. Periods of unememployment. 4 months but less than 5 .., 5 months but less than 6 .., 6 m onths but less than 7 .., 7 m onths but less than 8 ... 8 m onths but less than 9 ... 9 m onths but less than 10.. 10 months but less than 11 11 m onths but less than 12. 12 m onths but less than 13. 13 m onths but less than 14. 14 m onths but less than 15. 15 m onths but less than 16. 16 m onths but less th an 17. 17 m onths bu t less than 18. 18 m onths but less th an 19. 19 months but less than 20. 20 months but less than 21. 21 months but less than 22. 2,963 2,808 2,626 2,451 2,248 2,044 1,834 1,649 1,463 1,280 1,124 950 774 609 453 332 211 84 112 3.8 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.6 .5 .8 .3 .4 .1 .4 .2 .2 2.8 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.4 .8 .7 3.0 2.1 1.9 2.8 1.5 .7 1.7 .4 1.2 .4 .6 4.1 2.4 2.5 1.4 .5 2.6 2.8 .£ .7 3.8 2.9 2.1 .5 2.8 1.2 1.4 .8 3.9 5.6 1.1 1.2 .6 1.3 .7 5.6 1.2 3.0 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.5 .9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.0 .8 6.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.2 4.0 5.7 3.5 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 3.1 2.5 3.6 1.1 1.2 4.3 6.3 3.4 3.6 1.9 4.1 7.5 1.8 5.9 2.3 2.9 3.2. 6.7 3.5 2.0 2.4 3.2 5.2 2.0 4.3 5.0 5.7 2.3 3.1 7.0 8.6 7.7 5.9 .5.0 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.6 .5 .8 1.0 ::::: girls . 2,088 2,002 1,921 1,809 1,699 1,579 1,481 1,376 1,276 1,151 1,034 931 816 710 613 517 436 355 278 187 120 58 37.4 40.6 38.4 44.2 42.6 42.1 31.7 36.8 27.2 34.0 28.0 33.3 28.1 41.5 38.1 22.9 19.2 25.7 38.7 50.0 20.0 50.0 50.0 16.8 20.0 14.6 14.8 12.4 9.5 18.5 15.2 24.0 15.4 12.7 13.2 23.5 11.1 13.2 21.7 23.8 12.1 19.2 12.5 7.8 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.1 10.8 5.0 8.9 10.3 9.3 7.8 9.6 6.5 3.6 8.6 7.5 15.8 10.0 5.3 5.6 4.8 4.7 8.9 4.7 1.0 5.2 5.7 4.4 3.8 11.9 7.0 6.8 3.8 12.5 11.1 5.3 12.5 3.6 2.6 3.7 2.6 2.9 6.6 7.0 1.1 2.2 4.0 5.3 4.7 7.3 10.9 3.4 5.9 12.5 3.7 3.6 2.8 2.7 3.2 5.7 6.1 3.8 4.3 13.7 5.6 2.3 4.2 9.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.2 4.2 6.4 5.7 5.0 9.5 7.1 2.0 1.7 3.6 .8 2.4 1.3 i.6 1.4 1.4 5.0 2.3 2.1 3.1 6.3 1.1 .9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.9 1.9 4.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 4.1 3.7 .8 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.4 .9 3.0 2.0 5.4 1.9 1.1 .5 3.0 3.5 2.2 3.2 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 .1 .3 .2 i .2 .4 .5 .4 3.3 .5 .3 1 1' I 1 1i CONNECTICUT. Less than 1-month.............. 1 m onth but less than 2__ 2 m onths but less than 3 ... 3 m onths but less than 4 ... 4 months but less than 5 ... 5 months but less than 6 ... 6 m onths but less than 7 ... 7 m onths but less than 8 ... 8 m onths but less than 9 ... 9 m onths but less than 10.. 10 months but less than 11. 11 m onths but less than 12. 12 m onths but less than 13. 13 m onths but less than 14. 14 months but less than 15. 15 months but less than 16. 16 months but less than 17. 17 months but less than 18. 18 months but less than 19. 19 months but less than 20. 20 months but less than 21. 21 months but less than 22. ' 00 09 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Table 10.—Percentage of cases of unemployment of each duration, by month of work history in which the unemployment began. oo Twenty-second. Twenty-first. Tw entieth. Nineteenth. Eighteenth. Seventeenth. Sixteenth. Fifteenth. Fourteenth. I___________ :- Twelfth. E leventh. T enth. N inth. E ighth. Seventh. Sixth. Fifth. Fourth. Third. Second. First. ALL CHILDREN. Less than 1 m onth.......................................................................... 38.6 37.1 33.3 40.0 42.9 41.5 43.1 43.1 40.5 42.6 45.9 41.8 31.9 35.6 36.4 34.2 35.6 34.7 30.1 34.1 31.7 33.3 1 m onth but less than 2 ................................................................. 16.4 18.7 20.4 15.6 17.6 17.0 18.9 14.8 16.7 15.7 14.9 18.2 16.9 16.4 10.9 13.3 16.8 16.8 17.7 8.0 4.4 9.1 8.9 8.1 6.2 7.4 8.7 7.8 7.9 8.4 6.4 4.2 8.3 11.2 9.0 5.6 6.7 10.9 5.8 4.7 5.1 3 months but less than 4 ............................................................... 6.0 6.4 8.5 5.5 2.9 2.4 6.1 5.3 6.7 4.9 3.9 4.3 5.9 3.9 6.2 6.0 6.5 3.2 4.3 4.2 2.9 3.5 4. 4 3. 2 5.3 5.5 2.8 4.2 3.1 3.2 2.4 4.9 1.7 .9 2.7 1 4.5 4.1 4.8 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.5 1. 7 2.0 2. 2 2.1 2.6 2.0 7.1 3.6 5.0 .7 2.5 3.4 3.1 2.6 1.6 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.9 2.0 1.8 .5 1.2 .7 2.8 .8 1.7 3.1 1.9 2.8 2.0 .8 1.7 1.2 1.1 7 months but less than 8 ............................................................... 3.7 2.2 .4 1.8 .8 .4 2.0 2. 4 .8 .7 1.0 3.6 1.3 .4 .5 .5 .6 .8 1.3 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 .4 .5 1.4 ........ 1......... 1 m a sm m 1.4 4.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 .6 2.0 .5 1.0 .5 I .4 1.5 .3 1.2 1.0 .7 1.0 .6 1 j 2.0 .5 .9 1.1 .5 .é .7 .9 1.6 1 .8 2.1 .6 1 ........ .7 .3 .4 1.2 1 .2 .6 ! .3 .4 .9 .9 ........ .6 1 : .1 .3 1 BOYS. Less than 1 m onth.......................................................................... 1 m onth but less than 2 ................................................................. 2 months but less than 3 ............................................................... 3 months but less than 4 ............................................................... 38.1 38.2 33.8 42.1 41.5 43.5 44.0 48.7 40.4 41.9 48.6 40.5 32.9 35.7 39.6 37.8 37.2 30.8 29.8 32.7 27.5 16.5 16.6 24.2" 16.3 16.7 15.7 16.3 13.9 18.8 16.9 14.7 22.1 12.6 18.4 9.5 13.0 14.9 14.8 17.3 10.4 6.7 8.6 9.4 7.3 7.0 7.3 8.8 9.1 7.4 8.6 6.9 3.6 9.4 10.9 7.4 4.3 8.3 13.8 7.4 4.5 6.1 6.3 6.2 7.8 4.8 3.9 3.1 6.3 3.8 7.1 4.7 3.0 3.8 7.2 4.3 7.2 8.3 3.3 2.6 2.6 5.8 1.4 4.6 5.4 3.5 2.5 5.1 2.7 6.5 5.0 1.9 3.5 3.2 2 .2 .6 2.3 1.7 2.2 3.7 3.2 5.9 3.8 2.7 5 m onths bu t less than 6 ............................................................... 4.2 4.3 4.0 2.5 3.7 1.1 2.3 2.9 3.3 1.9 1.5 3.2 5.5 2.8 .8 1.8 4.2 1.2 3.1 .6 2.4 1.4 7 m onths bu t less than 8 ............................................................... 2.0 3.9 3.1 .7 2.9 1.7 2.0 .6 1.1 .5 2.8 1.2 .7 .8 1.0 1.1 1.5 3.8 8 months but less than 9 ............................................................... 2.3 1.6 2.8 1.2 .6 ..... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25.0 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS, Duration of unem ployment and sex. Thirteenth. - Number of cases of unem ployment term inated w ith specified duration per ICO cases of unemployment originating in specified m onth of work history. 9 months but less than 10.. 10 months but less than 11. 11 months but less than 12. 12 months but less than 13. 13 months but less than 14. 14 months but less than 15. 15 months but less than 16. 16 months but less than 17. 17 months but less than 18. 18 months but less than 19. 19 months but less than 20. 20 months but less than 21. 21 months but less than 22. 1.8 1.4 .6 1.3 .8 1 .0 .8 .7 .8 .9 .6 35.2 32.5 36.8 22.3 14.6 14.7 8.1 9.3 4.9 6.7 9.5 6.6 2.1 2.1 6.2 3.9 6.0 1.6 3.9 1.7 4.0 1.8 4.7 3.5 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.4 2.1 ..... .8 1.1 .7 .8 ..... 'i.T 1.7 1.6 1.9 .9 1.4 .8 1.1 1.3 45.6 37.8 41.7 19.3 19.3 23.5 7.6 8.4 5.5 . 9 1 . 0 5.7 3.0 4.1 3.0 1.0 5.3 3.2 1.1 4.3 1.1 3.3 2.3 1.2 1.3 3.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 ..... i. 7 ..... 1.8 ............. 32.4 40.5 44.0 41.2 44.0 30.3 35.5 29.6 27.8 32.5 41.7 30.4 36.7 40.0 50. n 16.5 13.1 13.4 15.2 11.4 25.0 12.9 13.7 13.7 20.5 20.6 18.2 3.7 9.0 8.0 5.2 5.3 6.3 11.9 11.9 8.2 4.0 5.6 3.1 4.9 3.8 8.3 6.1 5.3 5.6 5.3 3.3 3.1 4.3 2.3 12.9 4.3 6.5 4.4 5.5 3.0 9.1 1.8 3.4 2.4 2.4 3.4 4.7 3 5 1.2 2.5 2.0 7.7 3.7 2.7 1.9 2.1 3.1 3.1 1.9 1.7 2.7 ..... ............. ***** i.8 2.0 2.6 3.6 ..... ............. ............. ............ ..... ..... ............ ............. ••••• ..... ............. CONNECTICUT, Less than 1 m onth............................ ?......................................... 1 month but less than 2 . .............................. -............; . . . 2 m onths but less than 3 .......................................... .................... 3 months but less than 4 . . # ........................................................ 4 m onths but less than 5 . . . . ' ................. .................................... 5 months but less than 6 .................................................. . 6 months but less than 7 ............................................................... 7 m onths but less than 8 ............................................................... 8 months but less than 9 ....................................................... .. 9 months but less than 10....................................................... 10 months but less than 11........................................................... 11 months but less than 12........................................................... 12 months but less than 13........................................................... 13 months but less than 14........................................................... 14 months but less than 15........................................................... 15 months but less than 16.......... ............................................ j 16 months but less than 17..........................................................[ 17 months but less than 18.........................................................." 18 months but less than 19.........................................................." 19 months but less than 20........................................................ . 20 months but less than 21........................................................ . 21 months but less than 22............................................ 5.3 .4 .4 1.3 .5 ..... 1 00 at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 86 INDUSTRIAL INSTABILITY OF CHILD WORKERS. T able 11.— Cases o f u n e m p lo y m e n t o r ig in a tin g i n specified m o n th before en d o f w o rk h isto ry . Cases of unem ployment. Month preceding fringe month before the end of work history. 5,961 3,771 77 55 201 214 242 282 283 275 280 280 303 329 327 288 301 289 253 270 257 246 233 212 188 189 142 T able Girls. Boys. Total. 2,190 121 128 161 170 173 155 182 175 203 204 210 185 186 183 156 174 176 165 156 121 121 127 84 22 80 86 81 112 110 120 98 105 100 125 117 103 115 106 97 96 81 81 77 91 67 62 58 12.— Cases o f u n e m p lo y m e n t n o t te rm in a te d a t six te e n th b irth d a y , by w o rk-h isto ry m o n th o f o r ig in . Cases of unem ployment not terminated at 16. Month of origin. Total. T otal..................... . . . Fringe m on th...................... First preceding................... Second preceding................ Third preceding.................. Fourth preceding.. . ; ........ F ifth preceding — — . Sixth preceding.................. Seventh preceding.............. E ighth preceding................ N in th preceding................. T enth preceding................. E leventh preceding............ T w elfth preceding.............. Thirteenth preceding........ Fourteenth preceding----Fifteenth preceding........... Sixteenth preceding.......... Seventeenth preceding — E ighteenth preceding....... N ineteenth preceding— Tw entieth preceding......... Twenty-first precedm g. . . Twenty-second preceding. Tw enty-third preceding. . https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Girls. 1,378 851 72 163 145 134 136 113 72 52 62 65 57 45 35 33 35 28 33 51 103 87 24 17 15 16 20 12 6 4 o Boys. 88 83 77 37 31 33 40 30 27 20 21 24 17 18 12 11 11 7 3 4 527 21 60 58 46 53 36 35 21 29 25 27 18 15 12 11 11 15 8 8 6 4 5 3
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