Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : October 10, 1960
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Not f o r P u b l i c a t i o n DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS October 10, 19& • H.1UCAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA ( I n c l u d i n g Monthly Review of F i n a n c i a l Developments i n t h e United Kingdom) P a r t I - United S t a t e s Four l a r g e c o r p o r a t e s e c u r i t y i s s u e s with p r o c e e d s t o t a l i n g $170 m i l l i o n were s o ld l a s t week and a f i v e - y e a r F e d e r a l Land Bank bond issue—$1^2 m i l l i o n of which r e p r e s e n t e d new c a p i t a l — w a s s o l d . A l l b i d s on t h e o n l y l a r g e S t a t e and l o c a l government bond o f f e r i n g d e f i n i t e l y scheduled f o r s a l e were r e j e c t e d . This week one S t a t e and l o c a l g o v e r n ment bond i s s u e f o r $70 m i l l i o n i s on t h e c a l e n d a r and a $20 m i l l i o n c o r p o r a t e i s s u e i s t e n t a t i v e l y scheduled f o r p u b l i c o f f e r i n g . Long-term bond y i e l d s - Y i e l d s on a l l major t y p e s of l o n g - t e r m bonds i n c r e a s e d l a s t week. The i n c r e a s e was f a i r l y sharp i n y i e l d s on l o n g - t e r m U. S. Government bonds. S h o r t - and i n t e r m e d i a t e - t e r m i n t e r e s t r a t e s - Y i e l d s on Treasury b i l l s and t h r e e - t o f i v e - y e a r T r e a s u r y o b l i g a t i o n s i n c r e a s e d l a s t week. P r i v a t e s h o r t - and i n t e r m e d i a t e - t e r m i n t e r e s t r a t e s were unchanged. Mortgage r e c o r d i n g s - Nonfarm mortgage r e c o r d i n g s , which d e c l i n e d c o n t r a s e a s o n a l l y i n J u l y , were 18 p e r c e n t below t h e r e c o r d monthly l e v e l of a y e a r e a r l i e r . T h i s was t h e s h a r p e s t y e a r - o v e r - y e a r d e c l i n e r e g i s t e r e d i n any month of i 9 6 0 . Common s t o c k p r i c e s - Common s t o c k p r i c e s , a s measured by Standard and P o o r ' s i n d e x of 5>00 s t o c k s , i n c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y l a s t week, c l o s i n g on F r i d a y a t 5U.03. Trading volume was l i g h t , a v e r a g i n g Z.h million shares a day. More d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n concerning r e c e n t c a p i t a l market developments i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h e a t t a c h e d e x h i b i t s . Developments i n t h e Canadian c a p i t a l m a r k e t s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n P a r t I I a t t h e end of t h i s r e p o r t . C a p i t a l Markets S e c t i o n , D i v i s i o n of Research and S t a t i s t i c s , Board of Governors of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve System. L O N G - T E R M B O N D YIELDS HIGH-GRADE / KiT LOWER-GRADE /Vf U.S. 60VEBMMENT (Per cent) Low High Low High Low 1960 - High Low 2.85 it.lit 3.55 it. 61 U.09 4.61 it. 23 Sept. 9 S e c t . 16 S ept . 23 Sept . 30 Oct. 7 2 / }t. 23 4.26 it. 26 it. 27 It. 28 - (li/23) (9/27) (5/2) (12/31) (1/9) (1/29) (9/9) Spread between U. S. Govt, and S t a t e and Corporate l o c a l Aaa Aaa S t a t e and l o c a l govt. Aaa y U. S. Govt, long-term 2/ Corporate Aaa 1 / 1954 1957 1958 1959 -3- E x h i b i t B - Tables f o r E x h i b i t A Long-term Bond Y i e l d s Higjh-grade II. 14 ill 2.ii5 ( 8 / 6 ) 3.76 (10/18) 3.07 (14/25) it. 37 (12/31) 3.83 ( 1 / 2 ) it.lt2 ( 1 / 8 ) 3.75(8/5) '&fwi 2.99 ( 9 / 1 ) 3.84 3.84 3 . 79 3.03 3.13 3.13 3.88 3.21 3.18 3.81 .30 .60 .22 .50 .16 .59 •19 .30 .it? .3lt .92 .53 .92 .53 .39 .42 .47 .46 .4o- .81 .71 .66 .63 .67 Lower-grade Date Corporate Baa 1 / S t a t e and local govt. Baa y Spread between Aaa and Baa S t a t e and Corporate l o c a l govt. (Per cent) Low High Low High Low 1960 - High Low 3.44 5.10 4.51 5.32 4.83 5.36 4.98 Sept. 9 S e p t . 16 S e p t . 23 S e p t . 30 Oct. 7 e / 4.98 4.99 5.02 5.05 5.09 1954 1957 1958 1959 - "¥ (12/31) (11/29) (7/11) (12/31) (4/17) (2/12) (9/9) 2.93 ( 8 / 5 ) S:S 4.46 3.92 4.46 4.05 4.07 4.09 4.09 4.13 4.15 W (7/2) (3/26) (1/7) (9/1) .52 1.27 .77 :56 .84 .71 .75 .73 .76 .78 .81 .96 1.21 .93 .98 .79 1.08 .92 1.04 1 SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE- TERM INTEREST RATES GOVERNMENT 3 - 5 YEAR ISSUES 6 - MONTH IIU$ F -.A I T v F. I . MARKET DISCOUNT RATE YIELDS PRIVATE STOCK EXCHANGE CAU 1 0 A N S FINANCE COMPANY PAPER Directly Ploced -5Bxhibit D - Tables f o r Exhibit C S h o r t - and I n t e r m e d i a t e - t e r m I n t e r e s t R a t e s Government Date Discount rate 1/ Yields 6-month b i l l s 2/ 3-month b i l l s 2/ 3-5 year Issues 2/ Spread between y i e l d s on 3-month b i l l s and y i e l d s on 6-mo. b i l l s 13-5 y r . i s s u e s " " (per cent) Low High Low High Low I 9 6 0 - High Low 1.50 3.50 1.75 Loo 2.50 Loo 3.00 .61 3.61* .58 It. 57 2.63 1*.59 2.13 Sept. 9 S e p t . 16 S e p t . 23 S e p t . 30 Oct. 7 2 / 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.56 2.58 2.1*3 2.35 2.1*0 1951* 1957 1958 1959 - (6/11) (10/18) (5/29) (12/2b) (2/20) (1/8) (8/5) 1.66 i*.0l* 3 . 0 2 ( 1 2 / 2 6 ) 2.11* li.91 ( 1 2 / 3 1 ) 5 . 0 0 2.92 (1/2) 3.70 5.07 ( 1 / 8 ) 1*.97 3.1*7 2.39 (8/5) — 2.83 2.87 2.80 2.82 2.88 (V30) . ao/18) (6/6) (12/21*) (1/2) (1/8) (9/23) 3.51 3.53 3.1*7 3.50 3.60 .26 .79 .19 .58 .16 .66 .86 .01* 1.1*2 .1*0 1.81 .38 .27 .29 .37 .1*7 .1*8 .95 .95 1.01* 1.15 1.20 we* •**» Private Date Stock Exchange call loan 1 / Spread between 3-month Prime Finance company T r e a s u r y b i l l y i e l d and rate 1/ f i n a n c e company paper 3/ paper r a t e s (per cent) Low High Low High Low I960 - High „ Low 1951* 1957 1958 1959 - Sept. 9 S e p t . , 16 S e p t . , 23 S e p t . 30 Oct. 7 £ / 3.00 l*.5o 3.50 5.00 1*.00 5.50 • l*.5o 3.00 l*.5o 3.50 5.oo li.oo 5.oo l*.5o 1.25 (12/31) 3.88 (11/15) 1.13 (8/8) 1*.88 ( 1 2 / 3 1 ) 3.00-(3/6) 5.13 (1/22) 2.91* ( 8 / 2 6 ) i*.5o l*.5d l*.5o l*.5o l*.5o l*.5o l*.5o l*.5ti l*.5o l*.5o 3.06 3.11 3.19 3.19 3.19 1/ 0 (12/18) .59(7/19) -.35 (8/29) .86 (10/9) .13(12/1*) 1.02 (3/25) .22 ( V 1 5 ) •50 .53 •76 .81* .79 Weekly r a t e shown I s t h a t I n e f f e c t a t end of p a r t e d . Discount r a t e la. f o r Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Stock Axohans* c a l l loan r a t e l e going r a t e on c a l l loan* secured try oustooers' stock exchange c o l l a t e r a l a t New York City bank*. Prion r a t e i o tliat charged by large banks on s h o r t - t e n loans t o business borrowers of t h e highest c r e d i t standing. 2 / Market y i e l d ; weekly avern*ee computed from d a i l y closing bid p r i c e s . Series of 3-5 year Issues uonoietw of eeleoled notes and boat.li. 3 / Average of dally r a t e s puMiehed Vy fiwiaoe aompanles for d l r e o t l y placed paper f o r varying m a t u r i t i e s In the 510-179 day ruivt*. , , • Note,— and lows are f o r Individual sarlew.und' may be on d i f f e r e n t dates f o r A f f e r e n t s e r i e s . Per spread*, nlgti r e f e r s t o widest» and low to narrowest^ > STOCK MARKET 1 4: MORTGAGE RECORDINGS AND 1954 LOANS Exhibit F . T a b l e s f o r Exliibii, B -7- Stock Market Stock price index 1/ 1957-59 - High Low I 9 6 0 - High Low 60.51 39.78 59.50 53.52 August September S e p t . 23 Sept. 30 Oct. 7 e / 56.51 54. 81 53.90 53.52 54.03 Trading Common stock volume y yields 2/ (millions (per cent) of shares) (7/31/59) (12/27/57) (1/8) (9/30) 3.07 4.66 3.18 3.62 fS tl 3.9 2.4 i s II 3.43 Stock market customer c r e d i t Customers' Bank Total debit balloans to ances it/ "others" 5/ ( M i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) 2.8 2.9 3.62 3.58 3,401 1,373 4,365 4,132 3,198 3,004 1,167 1,111 4,21*3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,109 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,117 1,145 n.a. 2,482 1,060 is n.a.—Not a v a i l a b l e . g / Preliminary. 1 / Standard and Poor's composite Index of 500. common stocks, weekly closing p r i c e s , 1941-43=10. Monthly data are averages of dally f i g u r e s rather than of Friday a 1 only. Hlgha and lows are f o r Fridays' data only. 2/ Standard and Poor's composite stock y i e l d based on Wednesday data converted t o weekly closing p r i c e s by Federal Reserve. Yields shown are f o r dales on which price index reached i t s high or low. 3 / Averages of dally trading vol me on the New York Stock Bcoliange. 4 / End of month f i g u r e s f o r member firms of the New York Stock Bxcharye which carry margin accountst excludes balances secured by U. S. Government o b l i g a t i o n s . 5 / Wednesday f i g u r e s f o r weekly reporting member banks. Excludes loans for purchasing or carrying U, 5 . Government s e c u r i t i e s • Prior t o July 1, 1959; such loans are excluded only a t banks in New York and Chicago. Weekly reporting banks account f o r about 70 p e r cent of loans t o o t h e r s . For f u r t h e r d e t a i l Bulletin. N o n f a r m M o r t g a g e R e c o r d i n g s a n d L o a n s 1/ Date 1959 - July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Deo. i960 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July | Unadjusted Total Seasonally Unadjusted VA. I FHA adjusted 2/ ( M i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) 2,787 2,769 2,650 2,639 2,589 2,485 2,U87 2,too 2,Mil 2.W0 2,446 2,427 n.a. 3,100 2,871 2,83k 2,799 2,442 2,487 2,079 2,149 2,406 2,366 2,500 2,690 2,528 524 564 510 523 448 451 417 368 361 336 322 365 362 227 202 221 238 220 241 195 170 173 153 155 175 160 Conv. 2,349 2,165 2,103 2,039 1,775 1,794 1,467 1,612 1,872 1,878 2,023 2,150 2,006 n.a.—Not a v a i l a b l e . 1/ Total recordings data are estimates based on r e p o r t s from about 450 areas and Include mortgages of (20,000 or l e s s secured by nonfarm r e a l e s t a t e , primarily r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t i e s . FHA-lneured loans represent gross amount of Insurance w r i t t e n , and VA-guaranteed loans the gross amount of loans closed,on 1-4 family houses. Conventional data are derived a s a r e s i d u a l , although t o t a l recordings and VA and FHA loans are not s t r i c t l y comparable i n concept or timing, 2/ Three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve. Souroei- Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Administration. Exhibit G Long-term C o r p o r a t e and S t a t e and L o c a l Government S e c u r i t y O f f e r i n g s and Placements ( I n m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) New c a p i t a l I960 January February March April May June July August September 821 738 61*6 728 857,/ 1,5532/ 766 567 1,031* 891* 785 887 1 , 1 ho 597 887 535 7li0 703 X 'fig e/700 - quarter quarter quarter quarter S t a t e and l o c a l 2 / 1 1958 1 1959 738 623 575 63? 858 61*6 812 953 511 1,030 932 593 1,006 798 895 551 2/555 e/600 e/675 1 I 806 1*03 651 1*56 1*7 U 435 e/550 2,151 2,367 0/2,372 2,20l* 2,567 1,979 2,61*2 3,139 2,623 2,760 2,300 1,936 2,311 §/l,830 2,11*3 2,531 1,516 1,571 2,276 2,21,1* 1,860 1,365 h>&9 e/6,890 4,771 6,750 9,392 5,762 8,522 10,823 ^21:7 S/6,077 11,674 6,222 7,793 It,520 6,380 7,71*6 Excluding f i n a n c e companies k / 1,722 2,150 2/1,922 Year 1/ 2/ 3/ 5/ l,lllt I960 862 518 920 1st 2nd 3rd l*th 1st 2nd 3rd l*th '5°0 . 879 861* 900 e/1,000 ' 1st half Three q u a r t e r s Year 1958 577 715 860 October November December quarter quarter quarter quarter Corporate 1 / 1 1 1959 1,999 2,1*12 1,716 2,503 2,899 2,586 2,731 2,213 8,630 10,1*29 S e c u r i t i e s and Exchange Commission e s t i m a t e s of n e t p r o c e e d s . I n v e s t m e n t Bankers A s s o c i a t i o n of America e s t i m a t e s of p r i n c i p a l amounts, I n c l u d e s $718.3 m i l l i o n AT&T c o n v e r t i b l e d e b e n t u r e i s s u e . T o t a l new c a p i t a l i s s u e s , e x c l u d i n g o f f e r i n g s of s a l e s and consumer f i n a n c e companies. H.lii Exllibit H Other Security Offerings 1 / -9- ( I n m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) Long-be m Foreign government 2/ Federal agency 3/ I960 I960 |1 1958 1959 1 1959 1 January February March April May June 2 175 70 196 53 34 72 hO 58 50 h2 139 198 120 lii8 354 523 9 5 17 __ 16U 85 1 35 . October November December 33 30 70 58 123 7h 547 992 Year State and local April May July August September 182 150 150 — July August September January February March 1958 81 60 2 1,163 251 199 175 — 2/200 98 150 220 86 — 707 Short-term g o v e r n m e n t h/ Federal agency 3/ 268 34^ 365 190 128 295 233 460 273 479 475 511 359 500 U89 371 208 H4I4 365 : 351 # 7 563 Ml 215 357 351 26Ji 509 632 435 186 675 289 209 161 329 280 2h6 167 # 9 289 ii23 369 312 168 727 137 206 330 235 3h3 358 ?31 i4l5 243 733 471 288 it,-179 3,910 6,01,7 E/370 October November December Year. . 2,321 2 # 665 ! USh 11U 137 3,096 e / Preliminary. 1/ Data presented in t h i s exhibit d i f f e r from those i n Exhibit B in t h a t refunding I s runs, an well as new . capital iasuea, are included. Long-term s e c u r i t i e s are defined as those natuKng In m^ro than one year. 2/ Includes securities offered i n tho United States by foreign goverrmonts and t h e i r subdivisions end by ln'.ernat'onnl organisations. Sourom Securities and Exohrvage Coinmianlort, 5/ Isoues not guareM<ed ty the U, S. Qov^rniehl. Souroei lony-tsrri, Securities and Exchange Coimlaslon) short-term, Federal Reserve. 4 / Principally tax and bond anticipation n o t t s , warrants or c e r t i f i c a t e s and Public ftbiising Authority not-*. In some instances t'HA rotes inoludud may have a somewhat longer term than one year. Sourcei Pond Buyer. Exhibit I —10— Large Long-term P u b l i c S e c u r i t y Issues f o r New C a p i t a l (Other t h a n U. S. T r e a s u r y ) 1 / Proceeds of Large I s s u e s O f f e r e d ( M i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) Month 1959 - September October November December I960 - January February March April May June July August September Corporate S t a t e and l o c a l government 199 Wo 421 230 279 262 38U 309 139 W 303 581 266 21it 29it 163 217 388 283 225 370 23k 561 191 298 367 Other 2 / 175 20 70 100 320 191 71 28 30 75 25 Large I n d i v i d u a l I s s u e s O f f e r e d October 1 through 7 Type y Amount Coupon (millions Maturity rate or Offering of net I n t e r - yield dollars) e s t c o s t , Rating CORPORATE San Diego Gas & E l e c . Co Young6town Sheet & Tube Household Finance Corp. Columbia Gas System 1 s t mtg. b d s . 30.0 1 s t nrbg.S.F.bds.60.0 Deb. 50.0 Deb. 30.0 1990 1990 1981 1985 ii—5/8 W/2 JU—7/8 5-1/8 it. 63 U.60 it. 88 5.05 STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT None OTHER F e d e r a l Land Banks Bds. 12.0 1565 lt.03 Aa A 1-2 -11— Footnotes 1/ 2/ J/ I n c l u d e s c o r p o r a t e and o t h e r s e c u r i t y o f f e r i n g s o f -$L£> m i l l i o n a n d o v e r ; S t a t e and l o c a l government s e c u r i t y o f f e r i n g s of $10 m i l l i o n a n d o v e r . I n c l u d e s f o r e i g n government a n d I n t e r n a t i o n a l Bank f o r R e c o n s t r u c t i o n and Development i s s u e s and n o n - g u a r a n t e e d i s s u e s by F e d e r a l a g e n c i e s . I n t h e c a s e of S t a t e and l o c a l government s e c u r i t i e s , G. 0 . d e n o t e s g e n e r a l o b l i g a t i o n s j R e v . - U t . , r e v e n u e o b l i g a t i o n s s e c u r e d o n l y b y income f r o m p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s ; R e v . - Q . U t . , revenue bonds s e c u r e d o n l y by revenue f r o m qua s i - u t i l i t i e s R e v . - S . T . , revenue bonds s e c u r e d b y revenue f r o m s p e c i f i c t a x e s o n l y ; R e v . - R e n t . , revenue bonds s e c u r e d s o l e l y b y l e a s e p a y m e n t s . Exhlbit J -12- Forthcoming L a r g e Long-term P u b l i c S e c u r i t y O f f e r i n g s f o r New C a p i t a l ( O t h e r t h a n 0 . S. T r e a s u r y ) 1 / E j e c t e d P r o c e e d s f r o m Forthcoming Large I s s u e s Date of computation 1959 - S e p t . 30 O c t . 30 Nov. 30 Dec. 31 I 9 6 0 - J a n . 29 Feb. 29 Mar. 31 Apr. 29 May 31 J u n e 30 J u l y 29 Aug. 31 S e p t . 30 During month f o l l o w i n g d a t e shown S t a t e and Other 2 / Corporate l o c a l govt. 37k 385 226 210 207 301 299 202 483 237 596 216 576 270 115 295 1*1*5 210 255 250 21*3 277 180 27 5 283 212 70 30 1*5 35 30 30 77 Subsequent t o d a t e shown S t a t e and Other 2 / Corporate l o c a l govt. 1*70 336 1*85 5ii5 310 385 280 258 502 380 321* 283 336 69ii 509 271 280 252 372 3a 357 553 1*55 1,006 731 836 70 30 1*5 35 60 30 127 Forthcoming L a r g e O f f e r i n g s , a s o f O c t o b e r 7 Type Amount Approximate d a t e (millions of o f f e r i n g of d o l l a r s ) CORPORATE A s s o c i a t e d Dry Goods Coxp. G e n e r a l A c c e p t a n c e Corp. L o u i s v i l l e Gas & E l e c . Co. P a c i f i c L i g h t i n g Gas Supply Co. F l o r i d a Power Co. American Telephone and T e l e g r a p h Co. John Deere C r e d i t Corp. U n i t e d Gas Corp. Idaho Power Co. Wisconsin E l e c . Power Co. T r u s t o r s ' Corp. Commerce O i l R e f i n i n g Corp. L i b e r i a n I r o n Ore, L t d . N a t u r a l Gas P i p e l i n e o f America N a t u r a l Gas P i p e l i n e of America S.F. deb. Sen. deb. 1 s t mtg. b d a . S.F. d e b y 1 s t mtg. y6ds. Debr Deb. Bds. & d e b . 1 s t mtg. b d a . 1 s t mtg. bds. Partic. certif. D e b . , b d s . & com. Bds. & s t k . 1 s t mtg. b d s . Pfd. stk. 20.0 20.0 16.0 25.0 25.0 250.0 50.0 60.0 15.0 30.0 1*0.0 1*5.0 30.0 25.0 15.0 O c t . 12 O c t . 17 O c t . 19 O c t . 20 O c t . 21 O c t . 25 O c t . 27 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Nov. 16 Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite J-2 -13- Forthcoming Large O f f e r i n g s , a s of O c t o b e r 7 ( C o n t ' d ) Issuer Type Amount Approximate d a t e (millions of o f f e r i n g of d o l l a i s ) ! STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT S t a t e of M a s s a c h u s e t t s Dade County, F l o r i d a Los Angeles County Flood C o n t r o l Dist,, California ^Chicago, I l l i n o i s , School D i s t r i c t Pa. S t a t e P u b l i c School B l d g . Auth. C o o k County, I l l i n o i s Los Angeles H a r b o r D i s t . , C a l i f . New York S t a t e Housing F i n . Agency Los Angeles D e p t . of Wtr. and P w r . , California O r l e a n s P a r i s h , L a . , School D i s t . Kentucky T u r n p i k e A u t h . G.O. G.O. 69.5 • 46.0 O c t . 10 O c t . 18 G.O. G.O. Rev.-Rent. G.O. ' Rev. Rev. 10.0 15.0 21.3 25.0 12.0 100.0 Rev.-Ut. G.O. Rev. 12.0 10.0 55.0 Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite 35.0 5o.o O c t . 17 Nov. 15 O c t . 18 O c t . 18 O c t . 19 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 November OTHER h i g h A u t h o r i t y of t h e European Coal and S t e e l Community Tennessee V a l l e y A u t h . Bds. a n d n o t e s Bds. *—Included in t a b l e f o r f i r s t time. 1 / I n c l u d e s c o r p o r a t e and o t h e r i s s u e s of $15 m i l l i o n and o v e r ; S t a t e and l o c a l government i s s u e s of $10 m i l l i o n and o v e r . 2 j I n c l u d e s f o r e i g n government and I n t e r n a t i o n a l Bank f o r R e c o n s t r u c t i o n and Development i s s u e s and n o n - g u a r a n t e e d i s s u e s by F e d e r a l a g e n c i e s . N o t e . — D e l e t i o n s f o r r e a s o n s o t h e r t h a n s a l e of i s s u e : None. Exhibit K -lb- Y i e l d s on New and O u t s t a n d i n g E l e c t r i c Power Bonds, Rated Aa and A 1 / Aa-rated offering yields A-rated offering yields Amount above Amount above Actual Actual s e a s o n e d y i e l d s ( p e r cent) ( p e r cent) seasoned y i e l d s (basis points) (basis points) 1952-1959 - High Low 5.30 (12/8/59) 2.93 ( 3 / 3 1 M ) 87 -3 5.65 (9/18/59) 3.00 (3/17/5W 123 -15 1959 - J u l y *1*.93 31 5.07 17 Aug. It. 83 23 Sept. 60 *5.65 Oct. 5.13^ 1*3 5.33 Nov. *5.08 Dec. *5.30 63 51 1960 - J a n . 7 28 1 : ^ / Feb. 25 5.08 a 26 1*6 5.10 Mar. 15 32 16 17 18 11 5.00 29 ^ 7 4.93 Apr. 6 L85 33 8 21 1.98 1k k.9h 39 21 50 5.30 27 4.95 39 May 10 it. 88 32 12 26 5.10 5.20 33 25 June 17 4.95 lu82 25 28 h.Qh 27 29 " •11 4.93 July 8 8 4.88 » 21* 4.80 S e p t . 15 c/27 L65 , 23 28 4.55^, 4.632/ Oct. 5 * — S i n g l e o b s e r v a t i o n , n o t an a v e r a g e . 1 / Covers only 3 0 - y e a r f i r s t mortgage b o n d s , a s r e p o r t e d i n Moody's Bond Survey. Except where i n d i c a t e d , t h e a c t u a l y i e l d f i g u r e and t h e amount above s e a s o n e d y i e l d s a r e a v e r a g e s of o f f e r i n g s d u r i n g t h e i n d i c a t e d p e r i o d and of t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e s e new o f f e r i n g y i e l d s and y i e l d s on s e a s o n e d i s s u e s of s i m i l a r q u a l i t y f o r t h e same day. Average m a t u r i t y f o r t h e s e a s o n e d i s s u e s v a r i e s f r o m 26 t o 28 y e a r s . 2 / P r o v i d e s f o r a 5 - y e a r p e r i o d d u r i n g which i s s u e may n o t be c a l l e d f o r r e f u n d i n g a t a l o w e r coupon r a t e . Monthly a v e r a g e s s o marked i n c l u d e one o r more i s s u e s w i t h such a p r o v i s i o n . Other i s s u e s h a v e no such p r o v i s i o n . g -15October 1 0 , I 9 6 0 P a r t I I - Canada Money and C a p i t a l Markets d u r i n g ' S e p t e m b e r During September, Canadian b i l l and bond y i e l d s d e c l i n e d t o 1 9 6 0 / l o w s . I n f a c t , b i l l y i e l d s were a t t h e l o w e s t p o i n t s i n c e 1958. D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d , t h e Canadian b i l l s were s u b s t a n t i a l l y b e l o w y i e l d s on U n i t e d S t a t e s b i l l s ; even w i t h t h e premium on t h e f o r w a r d Canadian d o l l a r , t h e r e was a s l i g h t i n c e n t i v e i n f a v o r of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b i l l compared w i t h t h e Canadian b i l l . During t h e f i r s t week i n O c t o b e r , however, t h e d e c l i n e i n Canadian b i l l y i e l d s was s h a r p l y r e v e r s e d . The y i e l d on t h e 3-month b i l l r o s e b y 60 b a s i s p o i n t s t o t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l s i n c e t h e end of A u g u s t . Bond y i e l d s also rose f o r a l l m a t u r i t i e s . Money m a r k e t . During September t h e 3-month T r e a s u r y b i l l r a t e d e c l i n e d s h a r p l y t o t h e l o w e s t l e v e l s of t h e y e a r and on September 22 r e a c h e d 1 . 6 8 p e r c e n t , t h e l o w e s t s i n c e August 1958; 3^6 b a s i s p o i n t s below t h e h i g h of J a n u a r y 7 , I 9 6 0 . The a v e r a g e y i e l d f o r September was 1 . 9 5 p e r c e n t compared w i t h 2.1*6 p e r c e n t i n A u g u s t . (See C h a r t ) The 6-month T r e a s u r y b i l l f e l l t o new lows t h r o u g h September and r e a c h e d 1 . 9 9 p e r c e n t on September 2 1 . During t h e l a s t week of August and t h e f i r s t h a l f of September, when t h e b i l l r a t e was d e c l i n i n g , t h e Bank made no changes i n i t s b i l l h o l d i n g s . I t d i d , however, s e l l $1i3 m i l l i o n of T r e a s u r y b i l l s d u r i n g t h e l a s t two weeks of September which h e l p e d heavy p u r c h a s e s by t h e c h a r t e r e d b a n k s . The banks p u r c h a s e d $90 m i l l i o n d u r i n g t h e month and t h e p u b l i c s o l d $Ul m i l l i o n . During S e p t e m b e r , t h e r e was a s u b s t a n t i a l s p r e a d f a v o r i n g t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b i l l over t h e Canadian b i l l , r e a c h i n g 0 . 8 p e r c e n t on September 2 2 . A s l i g h t n e t i n c e n t i v e t o hold t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b i l l on a c o v e r e d b a s i s c o n t i n u e d t h r o u g h September i n s p i t e of a c l o s e t o 0 . 5 p e r c e n t premium'on t h e 3-month frowsird Canadian d o l l a r . A comparison of t h e y i e l d s on s h o r t - t e r m commercial p a p e r i n some of t h e m a j o r a c c e p t a n c e h o u s e s i n Canada and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n d i c a t e s t h e same t r e n d t h r o u g h September a s n o t e d i n t h e T r e a s u r y b i l l m a r k e t . While Canadian r a t e s were g e n e r a l l y a b o v e U n i t e d S t a t e s r a t e s t h r o u g h A u g u s t , t h e Canadian r a t e s f e l l below U . S . r a t e s i n S e p t e m b e r . S i m i l a r l y w h i l e t h e n e t i n c e n t i v e moved a g a i n s t t h e Canadian p a p e r , t h e premium on t h e f o r w a r d Canadian d o l l a r h e l d t h e i n c e n t i v e on a c o v e r e d b a s i s w e l l below 0 . 5 p e r c e n t ( s e e T a b l e ) . —]_6m 1 t o 3 month p a p e r Canada Aug. 25 Sept. 1 22 29 - United S t a t e s 2.75 2.50 2.0-2.5 2.0-2.5 2.25-2.50 2.50-2.75 3.00 2.75 +0.38 - 0.25 - 0.75 - 0.50 D a y - t o - d a y l o a n s i n Canada a l s o d e c l i n e d s t e a d i l y t h r o u g h September and t h e a v e r a g e c l o s i n g r a t e f e l l f r o m 2 . 5 8 p e r c e n t a t end of August t o 1 . 1 5 p e r c e n t a t end of September. Bond m a r k e t . Bond y i e l d s a l s o f e l l t o new lows i n September f o r a l l m a t u r i t i e s . While y i e l d s on s h o r t - and i n t e r m e d i a t e - t e r m m a t u r i t i e s c o n t i n u e d t o d e c l i n e t h r o u g h September, t h e l o n g e r m a t u r i t i e s remained a t about t h e low l e v e l s r e a c h e d e a r l y i n t h e month. The s p r e a d between s e l e c t e d comparable Canadian and U n i t e d S t a t e s s e c u r i t i e s (Thursday y i e l d s f o r b i l l s and Wednesday y i e l d s f o r bonds) were a s f o l l o w s : 91-day b i l l 182-day b i l l 8 - y e a r bdtnd 2 0 - y e a r bond 3 5 - y e a r btiM S e p t . 29 Aug. 25 - 0.66 -0.78 + 0.52 +0.91 + 1.01 - 0.21+ - 0.35 + 0.69 + 1.00 +1.15 The d e c l i n e i n bond y i e l d s t h r o u g h September was g e n e r a l and a f f e c t e d c o r p o r a t e and l o c a l Government i s s u e s a s w e l l . The Mdleod, Young, Weir Bond Y i e l d a v e r a g e s f o r k.0 bond y i e l d s showed a 7 b a s i s p o i n t d e c l i n e t h r o u g h September f r o m 5.U2 p e r c e n t on September 1 t o 5 . 3 5 p e r c e n t on October 1 . The d e c l i n e s r a n g e d f r o m it b a s i s p o i n t s i n P r o v i n c i a l s t o 9 b a s i s p o i n t s i n i n d u s t r i a l s as noted i n the following t a b l e : Sept. 1 Oct. 1 (per cent) 10 10 10 10 UO Provincials Municipals Public u t i l i t i e s Industrials Bond y i e l d a v e r a g e Source: 5.32 5.67 5.37 5.33 5.1*2 5.28 5.61 5.29 5.2U 5.35 Mcleod, Young, Weir Bond Y i e l d Average While new l o n g - t e r m bond i s s u e s expanded a b o u t $33U m i l l i o n i n September, t h e r e were no new s a l e s d u r i n g t h e month t o r e s i d e n t s of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . T o t a l new i s s u e s d u r i n g t h e month amounted t o $8lU m i l l i o n , of which SU80 m i l l i o n were s h o r t t e r m . Some of t h e most i m p o r t a n t new l o n g e r - t e r m i s s u e s of t h e month w e r e : -17Manitoba % d r o Nova S c o t i * CNR Newfoundland $25 m i l l i o n t o y i e l d 5.k$% $10 m i l l i o n t o y i e l d $ . 0 k t o $»23% $250 M i l l i o n t o y i e l d 1*.68 t o 5.17% $5 m i l l i o n t o y i e l d $»11% (For d e t a i l s s e e C a p i t a l Market Developments d a t e d September 5 t h r o u g h October 3*) I n mid-September t h e Government announced t h e terms of t h e new S e r i e s 15 Canada Savings Bonds. The bonds w i l l be d a t e d November 1 and w i l l mature i n 10 y e a r s w i t h a g r a d u a t e d i n t e r e s t r a t e which w i l l y i e l d 1*.71 p e r c e n t i f h e l d t o m a t u r i t y » This compares w i t h an a l l - t i m e peak of 1*«98 p e r c e n t f o r t h e 1959 i s s u e * I n t e r e s t r a t e s . Three of t h e l a r g e r Canadian i n s u r a n c e companies and one o t h e r l a r g e mortgage l e n d e r announced a r e d u c t i o n i n mortgage r a t e s i n September, t o 7 p e r c e n t f r o m t h e 7 - 1 A t o 7 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t l e v e l of t h e l a s t two y e a r s . The I n d u s t r i a l Development Bank a l s o reduced l e n d i n g r a t e s t o 6 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t from 7 p e r c e n t . The prime bank l e n d i n g r a t e and t h e prime r a t e s on c a l l l o a n s , however, c o n t i n u e a t t h e 5 - 3 A p e r c e n t l e v e l of t h e l a s t y e a r and p r i v a t e bankers have i n d i c a t e d no i n t e n t i o n of lowering r a t e s a t t h i s time s i n c e t h e y a r e a b l e t o l e n d a l l a v a i l a b l e f u n d s a t t h e c u r r e n t r a t e ( s e e g e n e r a l bank l o a n s ) . General bank l o a n s and money s u p p l y . Bank l o a n s s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d expanded 525 m i l l i o n i n September, f o r t h e seventh s t r a i g h t month of e x p a n s i o n . While a d j u s t e d bank l o a n s reached a peak of $5,006 m i l l i o n i n August 1959, t h e y S e l l a t o t a l of $235 m i l l i o n i n t h e n e x t six-month p e r i o d . The i n c r e a s e t o d a t e b e g i n n i n g March of t h i s y e a r , was $200 m i l l i o n , b r i n g i n g t h e t o t a l o u t s t a n d i n g to•$1*,971 m i l l i o n , $39 m i l l i o n below l a s t y e a r ' s peak. The money supply expanded b y $81 m i l l i o n d u r i n g t h e July-September q u a r t e r i n s p i t e of a $31*9 m i l l i o n d e c l i n e i n Government of Canada d e p o s i t s a t t h e c h a r t e r e d b a n k s . The r i s e i n t h e March-September p e r i o d r e f l e c t s i n p a r t t h e heavy s e a s o n a l needs of t h e summer months. T o t a l Currency Outside Banks and Bank D e p o s i t s ( m i l l i o n s of Canadian d o l l a r s ) Currency Dec. 31, 1959 March 31, I960 June 30, I960 S e p t . 30, I960 1,789 1,715 1,767 1,767 Deposits Total Change 11,360 11,297 11,1*81 11,561 13,11*8 13,012 13,21*8 13,329 — - 136 +236 + 8 1 F o r e i g n exchange. The Canadian d o l l a r r o s e s l i g h t l y above 103 (U.S. c e n t s ) on September 1 and remained so u n t i l t h e middle of t h e month. P a r t l y i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e low l e v e l of Canadian b i l l y i e l d s , t h e Canadian d o l l a r d e c l i n e d g r a d u a l l y a f t e r September 2 0 , and c l o s e d a t 102.20 on October 6 ( s e e T a b l e ) . The premium on t h e forward Canadian d o l l a r a l s o r o s e t h r o u g h t h e month from 019 p e r c e n t p e r annum on September 1 t o 0.1*3 p e r c e n t on September 29 and 0.1*9 p e r c e n t on October 6 ( s e e T a b l e ) * —18" O f f i c i a l h o l d i n g s of f o r e i g n exchange^ r e f l e c t i n g i n c r e a s e d d o l l a r h o l d i n g s , r o s e f o r t h e t h i r d c o n s e c u t i v e month i n A u g u s t , a f t e r d e c l i n i n g s h a r p l y i n May when t h e Canadian d o l l a r d e c l i n e d . P r i v a t e s h o r t - t e r m h o l d i n g s r o s e i n May, J u n e , and J u l y , r e f l e c t i n g h i g h e r i n t e r e s t r a t e s i n Canada d u r i n g t h a t p e r i o d . Change i n O f f i c i a l H o l d i n g s ^ / May June July Aug. Total Of which U.S. Gold dollars -101.5 +. 3 3 . 6 + 56.7 + 16.0 -23.3 -12.2 - 3.3 - 2.1 -78.2 +U5.8 +50.0 +18.1 Change i n s h o r t term U.S. d o l l a r holdings—private and o f f i c i a l ! / + 37 +108 +15U change i n private short-term holdings^/ •115.2 • 62.2 +10U.0 1 / Souuce: Bank of Canada, S t a t i s t i c a l Nummary. 2 / Source: Federal Reserve B u l l e t i n . 3 / D i f f e r e n c e between t o t a l p r i v a t e and o f f i c i a l s h o r t - t e r m h o l d i n g s and t o t a l o f f i c i a l h o l d i n g s . S t o c k exchange. Through September i n d u s t r i a l s t o c k p r i c e s d e c l i n e d s h a r p l y , and on October U were a b o u t 1 . 6 p e r c e n t o v e r t h e low of t h i s y e a r on t h e Toronto exchange and a b o u t 3*3 p e r c e n t over t h e low of t h e y e a r on t h e M o n t r e a l e x c h a n g e . D u r i n g September t h e d e c l i n e i n i n d u s t r i a l s on t h e Canadian market was between U.3 p e r c e n t and 5 . 3 p e r c e n t compared w i t h a f a l l of 8 . 7 p e r c e n t i n t h e S t a n d a r d & Poor i n d u s t r i a l average. Toronto I960 - High Low Sept. 1 9 15 23 29 October U Montreal New York S t a n d a r d & Poor 532.56 1*72.38 271.1 250.3 60.51 55.98 "505.56 503.38 U98.06 U8U.07 U80.13 179.75 271.1 272.0 269.6 26U.2 259.9 258.5 60.51 59.37 58.37 56.93 55.69 56.07 Consumer c r e d i t . Consumer c r e d i t r e a c h e d a p e a k of $ 3 . 5 b i l l i o n i n t h e second q u a r t e r of I960 a f t e r d e c l i n i n g s l i g h t l y i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r of t h e y e a r . T o t a l consqijer c r e d i t h a s grown over 3 t i m e s t h e immediate p o s t w a r l e v e l of $1,0U9 m i l l i o n a s n o t e d i n t h e t a b l e b e l o w . During t h i s p e r i o d p e r s o n a l c a s h l o a n s have grown t o m a j o r i m p o r t a n c e , e q u a l t o a l m o s t 50 p e r c e n t of t o t a l consumer c r e d i t a s compared w i t h a b o u t 37 p e r c e n t i n 1950 ( s e e T a b l e ) . —19"* Selected Canadian Money Market and Related Data 3-mo. Treas. bills Spread Canada U.S^/ over U.S. 1959 - High Low 1960 - High Low 6.16 U.U9 1.68 U.63 2.15 3.25 5.1U 2.80 2.96 0.30 0.90 -0.82 Canadian dpna - ** Spot 3-mo. discount j*/ forward premium(+)^ 1 105.51 102.58 105.27 101.31 —— — , Net incentive to hold I 0.99 -0.72 0.91 -0.57 Sept. 1 2.01 2.58 -0.57 103.03 103.08 0.19 -O.38 8 2.09 -0.U6 103.06 103.13 2.55 0.2U -0.22 15 2.07 -0.U6 103.08 103.19 2.53 0.U2 -o.ok 22 -0.82 . 1.68 2.50 102.63 102.75 0.U9 -0.33 29 1.70 -0.66 102.28 2.33 102.39 0.U3 -0.23 Oct. 6 2.20 102.20 -0.27 2.hi 102.33 .0,1*9 • 0.22 • a/ Average yield at weekly tender on Thursday. 5/ Composite market yield for the U.S. Treasury bill on Thursday close of business. y In U.S. cents. d/ Spread between spot rate and 3-month forward Canadian dollar on Thursday closing, expressed as per cent per annum. e/ Spread over U.S. Treasury bill (column 3), plus 3-month forward discount or premium (column 6), Selected Government of .Canada Security Yields 6-mo. Treas . bills Spread Canada y 1959 - High Low I960 - High Low 6.2U 5.11 5.33 1.99 S e p t .. 1 7 1U 21 28 Oct. 6 2.21 2.32 2.36 1.99 2.05 2.52 I Intermediate bonds (8 yr.) Spread Canada uT$/ 0.85 —0.86 5.37 U.50 5.55 U.09 1.11 0.21 -0.63 -0.50 -0.U8 -0.86 -0.78 -0.35 U.15 U.09 U.17 U.1U u.09 U.23 o.5U o.UU 0.60 0.67 0.52 0.57 — Long-term bonds year) (35 year) Spread Spread Canada over Canada e/ " W —* — . 5.30 U.UU 5.U2 U.63 1.22 0.85 5.05 U.73 5.28 U.68 1.61 0.95 U.65 U.63 U.68 U.66 U.66 U.72 0.88 0.85 0.88 0.92 0.91 0.87 U.75 U.68 U.69 U.70 " U.70 U.7U 1.03 0.95 0.97 1.03 1.01 1.00 Average yield at weekly tender on Thursday. Spread between Canadian auction rate and composite market yield of U.S. on close of business Thursday* Government of Canada 2 - 3 A per cent of June 1967-68. Spread over U.S. Government 2 - 1 / 2 per cent of 1963-68. Government of Canada 3 - l A per cent of October 1979# Spread over U.S. Government 3 - l A per cent of 1978-83. Government of Canada 3 - 3 A per cent of September 1996 - March 1998. Spread over U.S. Government of 199$. I Canada: Changes in Distribution of Holdings of Canadian Government Direct and Guaranteed Securities tmillions of Canadian dollars, par valueJ Bank of Canada Treas. s a a . Bonds Aug. U 11 18 25 31 Sept . 7 lb 21 28 Oct. 6 - 3 - 12 - 3 - 6 0 0 0 -16 - 27 - 1 + 11 + 5 + 17 + 1 0 0 0 0 - 2 + 5 Government Total + + + + + + 57 15 2 1 u u 0 • 3 - 1 • 3 Chartered banks Treas. bills Bonis -^12 - 8 + 21 + 2U + 11 - 11 + 8 + 52 + la + 2 + + + + + + + + + General public savings areas. beads JBonds 3U 1 10 2 9 18 11 3 16 68 + - 5 5 5 6 5 h 2 7 5 5 + + + 0 11 19 Hi 10 13 3 37 1U 3 - 35 9 23 U 9 19 12 0 - 5 +165 Source: Bank of Canada, Weekly financial Statistics* Consumer C r e d i t ( m i l l i o n s of Canadian d o l l a r s ) End of quarter 1950 1958 1959 - I II III IV i960 - I II Source: Charge accounts Instalment credit 255 U06 362 368 391 U31 380 #9 ttOl 1,277 1,226 1,282 1,317 1,368 1,322 k,395 Personal cash loans 383 1,318 1,380 1,502 1,568 1,588 1,582 1,690 Bank of Montreal Business Review. Total l,0k9 3,001 2,968 3,152 3,276 3,387 3",28k 3,U8U Consumer c r e d i t a s % of perst d i s p o s a b l e in8.3 13.3 12.6 13.1 13.7 1U.1 13.5 1U.5 CANADA THREE-MONTH TREASURY Thursday figures ~~ RATE RATE - UNITED STATES BILL R A T E S DIFFERENTIAL AND FORWARD CANADIAN DOLLAR DIFFERENTIAL WITH FORWARD EXCHANGE COVER mo -22- U n i t e d Kingdom: October 7 , I 9 6 0 Money and C a p i t a l Markets During September An i n f l o w of c a p i t a l f r o m a b r o a d , l a r g e l y i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e l e v e l of s h o r t - t e r m i n t e r e s t r a t e s i n B r i t a i n , c o n t i n u e d t o b e an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n London f i n a n c i a l m a r k e t s i n S e p t e m b e r . B r i t a i n ' s r e s e r v e s r o s e try $37 m i l l i o n . i n September, d i s p i t e c o n t i n u i n g p o o r t r a d e f i g u r e s ; i f a l l o w a n c e i s made f o r t h e $56 m i l l i o n repayment t o t h e I . M . F . , t h e g r o s s i n c r e a s e i n r e s e r v e s was $93 m i l l i o n . B r i t i s h T r e a s u r y b i l l y i e l d s d e c l i n e d s l i g h t l y i n e a r l y September b u t p r e s s u r e b y t h e Bank of England on t h e d i s c o u n t h o u s e s h e l p e d t o check t h e d e c l i n e . The y i e l d on London T r e a s u r y b i l l s exceeded t h e y i e l d i n New York by o v e r 3 p e r c e n t . The i n c e n t i v e t o h o l d t h e London b i l l ( w i t h exchange r i s k c o v e r e d ) f e l l t o a r e c e n t low of 0 . 7 0 p e r c e n t on September 16 b u t was a t 1 . 3 2 p e r c e n t on September 3 0 . I n t h e g i l t - e d g e d m a r k e t , y i e l d s i n s h o r t - and i n t e r m e d i a t e t e r m m a t u r i t i e s r o s e f r a c t i o n a l l y b u t t h o s e on l o n g e r t e r m e a s e d s l i g h t l y . American i n t e r e s t i n B r i t i s h g i l t - e d g e d bonds was r e p o r t e d i n t h e p r e s s . U n e x p e c t e d l y i n l a t e September t h e Bank of England o f f e r e d a s u b s t a n t i a l 5 0 - y e a r b o n d , t h e l o n g e s t - t e r m i s s u e now on t h e market w i t h a m a t u r i t y d a t e a t an e f f e c t i v e y i e l d of 5»80 p e r c e n t . F o r t h e f i r s t t i m e s i n c e March 1958, t o t a l h i r e - p u r c h a s e d e b t f e l l i n A u g u s t . S t o c k p r i c e c o n t i n u e d t o r i s e t o a p e a k i n e a r l y September b u t had f a l l e n by 3 p e r c e n t by t h e end of t h e month. Spot s t e r l i n g r o s e f r o m $2.8110 U . S . c e n t s on September 2 t o $ 2 . 8 l 5 7 U.S. c e n t s on September 16 b u t had r e t u r n e d t o $2.8112 U . S . c e n t s b y t h e end of t h e month. During S e p t e m b e r , b l o c k e d s e c u r i t i e s s t e r l i n g was a t or f r a c t i o n a l l y above t h e s p o t r a t e . The d i s c o u n t on f o r w a r d s t e r l i n g widened i n t h e f i r s t p a r t of September b u t t h e s p r e a d narrowed t h e r e a f t e r . M o n e y m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s . The y i e l d on T r e a s u r y b i l l s f e l l 8 b a s i s p o i n t s f r o m 5 . 5 9 p e r c e n t t o 5 . 5 1 p e r c e n t i n e a r l y September and h e l d s t e a d y a b o u t 5«50 p e r c e n t u n t i l t h e l a s t week i n t h e month when i t i n c r e a s e d t o 5 . 5 7 ( s e e T a b l e ) . The d e c l i n e i n y i e l d was h a l t e d a f t e r t h e Bank of England f o r c e d t h e d i s c o u n t m a r k e t t o borrow a t t h e p e n a l r a t e on September 1 0 , t h e day f o l l o w i n g t h e f a l l i n t h e T r e a s u r y b i l l y i e l d . T h i s i n t e r v e n t i o n o c c u r r e d on S a t u r d a y , t h e f i r s t such move s i n c e 1 9 5 2 , and s e r v e d t o d e m o n s t r a t e t o t h e f i n a n c i a l community t h e r e s i s t a n c e of t h e Bank of England t o a f u r t h e r d e c l i n e i n b i l l r a t e s . During t h i s p e r i o d , t h e y i e l d on London T r e a s u r y b i l l s exceeded tihart). Because of t h e w i d e r t h e b i l l y i e l d i n New York by 3 p e r c e n t ( s e e d i s c o u n t on f o r w a r d s t e r l i n g , however, t h e n e t i n c e n t i v e t o h o l d t h e B r i t i s h b i l l d e c l i n e d f r o m 1.2U p e r c e n t on August 19 t o 0 . 7 0 p e r c e n t on September 15 ( s e e T a b l e ) . T h e r e a f t e r , t h e n e t i n c e n t i v e r o s e s u b s t a n t i a l l y r e a c h i n g 1 . 3 7 p e r c e n t on September 30 due t o d e c l i n e s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b i l l y i e l d s and t o t h e r e d u c e d d i s c o u n t on 3-month f o r w a r d s t e r l i n g . T r e n d s i n b i l l r a t e s i n London and New York f o r I 9 6 0 a r e shown i n a C h a r t a t t h e end of t h i s r e p o r t . FRASER Digitized for Gilt-edged market. Despite the continued c a p i t a l inflow, t h e e a s i n g i n bond y i e l d s i n l a t p August d i d n o t c o n t i n u e i n t o S e p t e m b e r . On t h e c o n t r a r y , bond y i e l d s r o s e s l i g h t l y d u r i n g t h e month; s h o r t and i n t e r m e d i a t e y i e l d s r o s e b y a b o u t 2 b a s i s p o i n t s and t h e Consol y i e l d by 1 1 b a s i s p o i n t s ( s e e T a b l e ) „ During t h e l a s t week i n S e p t e m b e r , t h e y i e l d on 3 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t War Loan f e l l by 10 b a d i s p o i n t s and t h a t of 2 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t Consols by 5 b a s i s p o i n t s . P r e s s r e p o r t s s t a t e d t h a t s i z e a b l e American .buying contributed t o the d e c l i n e s . On September 3 0 , t h e Bank of England announced an o f f e r i n g of £500 m i l l i o n of 5 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t T r e a s u r y s t o c k 2008-12 a t £95 t o g i v e a g r o s s r e d e m p t i o n y i e l d of 5 . 8 0 p e r c e n t — s l i g h t l y below t h e m a r k e t . T h i s s t o c k r e p l a c e s t h e f o r m e r l o n g - t e r m "tap™ T r e a s u r y 5 p e r c e n t 1986-89 w i t h a g r o s s r e d e m p t i o n y i e l d of 6 . 0 5 p e r c e n t , s u p p l i e s of which were f i n a l l y e x h a u s t e d l a s t week. Income f r o m t h e bond i s t a x - f r e e f o r n o n r e s i d e n t s of t h e U.K. The new s t o c k r e p l a c e s t h e Funding 3 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t 1999-200U bond a s t h e l o n g e s t r e d e e m a b l e g i l t - e d g e d s e c u r i t y i n t h e m a r k e t . T h i s 5 0 - y e a r o f f e r i n g seems t o be d e s i g n e d f o r l o n g - t e r m i n s u r a n c e and p e n s i o n f u n d i n v e s t o r s . The new bonds w i l l be h e l d b y t h e I s s u e Department of t h e Bank of England and f e d i n t o t h e g i l t - e d g e d m a r k e t a s demand c o n d i t i o n s p e r m i t . The A g r i c u l t u r a l Mortgage C o r p o r a t i o n made a p u b l i c o f f e r i n g on September 16 of £6 m i l l i o n of newly c r e a t e d 6 p e r c e n t . d e b e n t u r e s t o c k , w i t h a l i f e of 22-27 y e a r s . I t was p r i c e d a t 99 w i t h a g r o s s r e d e m p t i o n y i e l d of 6 . 0 8 p e r c e n t . The l a s t o f f e r i n g of t h e C o r p o r a t i o n , which makes l o a n s on f i r s t mortgages on f a r m s , was o v e r two y e a r s ago f o r £ 5 m i l l i o n w i t h a 5 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t coupon p r i c e d a t 98 and a l i f e of 22-27 y e a r s . The S u r r e y 6 p e r c e n t 1978-80 was w e l l r e c e i v e d and went i m m e d i a t e l y t o a premium of t h r e e - f o u r t h s p e r c e n t . I n t h e p a s t week s e v e r a l l a r g e companies have announced p l a n s f o r new d e b e n t u r e i s s u e s , i n c l u d i n g filh.U m i l l i o n f o r Bowater Paper C o r p o r a t i o n , £13 m i l l i o n f o r C i t y and C e n t r a l I n v e s t m e n t s , £ 1 2 . 3 m i l l i o n f o r B r i t i s h Oxygen Company, £7 m i l l i o n f o r E n g l i s h E l e c t r i c and £5 m i l l i o n f o r Gold F i e l d s Mining and I n d u s t r i a l C o r p o r a t i o n . During t h e f i r s t e i g h t months of I 9 6 0 , new c a p i t a l i s s u e s on t h e London market ( e x c l u d i n g T r e a s u r y o p e r a t i o n s ) t o t a l e d £352 m i l l i o n compared w i t h £32U m i l l i o n i n 1959, a c c o r d i n g t o e s t i m a t e s of t h e Midland Bank. The t o t a l new i s s u e s were b r o k e n down a s f o l l o w s ( i n m i l l i o n s of p o u n d s ) : Borrows U n i t e d Kingdom Overseas Total 1959 I960 281 33 3 320 32 S While B r i t i s h b o r r o w e r s i n c r e a s e d t h e i r t a k i n g s i n I 9 6 0 , i s s u e s on b e h a l f of o v e r s e a s c o u n t r i e s were s l i g h t l y below t h e 1959 l e v e l . Bank a d v a n c e s . The B r i t i s h Bankers A s s o c i a t i o n q u a r t e r l y a n a l y s i s of bank a d v a n c e s shows t h a t t h e r a t e of i n c r e a s e i n l o a n s i s s l o w i n g down -2i|and t h a t t h e r e i s a s h i f t i n emphasis f r o m consumption t o i n v e s t m e n t , p a r t i c u l a r l y e n g i n e e r i n g . Loans r o s e i n t h e t h r e e months t o t h e end of August b y £59 m i l l i o n t o £ 3 , 5 1 6 m i l l i o n compared w i t h a r i s e of £2lU m i l l i o n i n t h e t h r e e months t o t h e end of May. Advances of t h e London c l e a r i n g banks r o s e f r o m ntid-August t o mid-September by £8 m i l l i o n . T h i s s l i g h t r i s e f o l l o w s t h e s u b s t a n t i a l d e c l i n e of a d v a n c e s f r o m m i d - J u l y t o mid-August of £Ul m i l l i o n . The l i q u i d i t y r a t i o i s 3 1 . 6 p e r c e n t compared w i t h 33-2 p e r c e n t a y e a r a g o . I n s t a l l m ^ n t c r e d i t . F o r t h e f i r s t t i m e s i n c e March 1958, t o t a l h i r e - p u r c h a s e d e b t f e l l i n August b y £ 1 m i l l i o n f r o m £971 m i l l i o n t o £970 m i l l i o n . I n March 1958, t o t a l d e b t o u t s t a n d i n g amounted t o o n l y £ii5l m i l l i o n . The August d e c l i n e r e f l e c t s t h e i m p a c t of t h e r e i n t r o d u c t i o n of h i r e - p u r c h a s e s c o n t r o l s i n A p r i l . D u r i n g t h e summer p e r i o d , t h e r a t e of e x p a n s i o n i n i d i i s c r e d i t had a l r e a d y b e e n slowed b y t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s . S i n c e May, d e b t owed t o h o u s e h o l d goods s h o p s , which r e p r e s e n t s a b o u t o n e - t h i r d of t h e t o t a l , has b e e n f a l l i n g s t e a d i l y . U n t i l A u g u s t , however, t h i s d e c l i n e had been o f f s e t b y i n c r e a s e s i n t h e d e b t owed d i r e c t l y t o f i n a n c e h o u s e s . There was a s m a l l e r i n c r e a s e i n t h e d e b t owed t o f i n a n c e h o u s e s i n A u g u s t , due m a i n l y t o a f a l l o f f i n h i r e - p u r c h a s e s a l e s of a u t o m o b i l e s ; a s a r e s u l t , t h e t o t a l d e b t d e c l i n e d a s may be s e e n i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f i g u r e s ( i n m i l l i o n s of p o u n d s ) : Installment credit owed t o : May Household goods shops Finance houses 256 Ul8 26U m 67U 708 Total 1959 June J u l y I960 June J u l y Aug. May 273 1*69 279 U77 3U1 623 336 630 332 639 7U2 756 96U 966 971 328 H i r e - p u r c h a s e s a l e s of a u t o m o b i l e s i n September were down 7 p e r c e n t f r o m August and down 1 1 p e r c e n t f r o m September 1 9 5 9 . L i f e i n s u r a n c e . L i f e a s s u r a n c e b u s i n e s s t r a n s a c t e d by t h e i n d u s t r i a l l i f e o f f i c e i n 1959 a c c o u n t e d f o r a r e c o r d t o t a l of over £115 m i l l i o n n e t new s a v i n g , n e a r l y 20 p e r c e n t h i g h e r t h a n t h e 1958 f i g u r e . Industrial Ordinary General 1959 (£m) 1958 (£m) 2,059 1,582 5U 1.952 1,1*51 50 F o r e i g n e x c h a n g e . Spot s t e r l i n g c o n t i n u e d t o r i s e and r e a c h e d 281.5U U . S . c e n t s on September 1 5 , i t s h i g h e s t p o i n t s i n c e mid-May 1959$ b u t f e l l t o 281.12 U . S . c e n t s l a t e r i n t h e month ( s e e T a b l e ) . By mid-September s e c u r i t y s t e r l i n g r e a c h e d i t s h i g h s i n c e A p r i l 1959 of 281.62U U . S . c e n t s . The d i s c o u n t on 3-month f o r w a r d s t e r l i n g r o s e t o 2 . 3 3 p e r c e n t i n midmonth b u t l a t e r f e l l t o 1 . 9 5 p e r c e n t ( s e e T a b l e ) . -25The p r i c e of gold on t h e London b u l l i o n market r e a c h e d i t s a l l time peak on September 28 of $35*255 p e r t r o y ounce. T h e r e a f t e r , t h e p r i c e eased and was a t $35,215 on October 3 . Stock m a r k e t . During e a r l y September, s t o c k p r i c e s c o n t i n u e d t h e i r 6-week r i s e and r e a c h e d a I960 peak of 338.6 on September 9 (see T a b l e ) . T h e r e a f t e r , t h e i n d e x e a s e d , perhaps p a r t l y i n sympathy w i t h t h e s h a r p drop i n p r i c e s on Wall S t r e e t , and was a t 325*6 on September 30, a d e c l i n e of about 3 p e r c e n t . B r i t i s h Commonwealth S e c t i o n D i v i s i o n of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Finance Board of Governors of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve System -26U n i t e d Kingdom: Date T r e a s u r y B i l l Y i e l d s and Exchange R a t e s 3-mo. T r e a s u r y b i l l . Difference U . K ^ / U.S J y Discount on 3-mo. sterlings/ Net incentive t o hold . U.K. b i l l * / Exchange r a t e Spot Discount sterling on 3-mo. . -/ sterling*/ „ __ __ 1959 - High Low I 9 6 0 - High Low 3.6 3.0 5.68 2.13 U.7 2.6 U.59 2.05 -1.1 o.U 3.63 -0.81+ (P).6U 2.33 1.95 - .23 281.57 279.83 1.6U (P).l+7 A u g u s t 19 26 Sept. 2 9 16 23 30 5.59 5.59 5.59 5.51 5.51 5.U9 5.57 2.1+0 2.16 2.U9 2.59 2.U8 2.1+0 2.30 3.19 3.13 3.10 2.92 3.03 3.09 3.27 1.95 2.12 2.05 2.20 2.33 2.12 1.95 1.2k 1.01 1.05 0.72 0.70 0.97 1.32 281.13 281.10 281.12 281.36 281.57 281.30 281.12 1.37 1.U9 1.1+1+ 1.55 1.61+ 1.1+9 1.37 a/ ]>/ c/ d/ e/ 7/ Average y i e l d a t F r i d a y w e e k l y t e n d e r . C l o s i n g m a r k e t y i e l d f o r F r i d a y i n New Y o r k . S p r e a d b e t w e e n s p o t and f o r w a r d r a t e i n p e r c e n t p e r annum. Net of d i f f e r e n c e i n b i l l y i e l d l e s s d i s c o u n t on 3-month s t e r l i n g . S p o t r a t e i n New York m a r k e t i n U . S . c e n t s . S p r e a d b e t w e e n s p o t ' and f o r w a r d r a t e s i n U . S . c e n t s . U n i t e d Kingdom: 6-year bondf/ t S P I 9 6 0 - High Low 6.0k a.93 6.00 5.33 August 19 26 Sept. 2 9 5.96 5.97 5.99 6.00 5.99 6.02 6.00 5.97 5.91+ 5.95 5.93 5.9k 5.97 5.96 16 23 30 a/ b/ "o/ d/ e/ f/ l/ S e l e c t e d C a p i t a l Market Y i e l d s War , loan£/ - Consols 5/ Share yield®/ Yield gap-/ Share pricesS/ 5.91 5.53 5.69 5.03 U.U9 3.7U 1.U9 0.76 338.6 297 5.90 5.89 5.90 5.91 5.88 5.91 5.81 5.63 5.5U 5.1+1+ 5.1+5 5.1+7 5.55 5.50 1+.21+ L.18 1+.13 1+.12 1+.21+ 1+.28 1+.31+ 1.38 1.36 1.31 1.33 1.23 1.27 1,16 327.1 33U.U 335.2 338.6 330.1 328.7 325.6 5 - 1 / 2 per cent Exchequer. 3 p e r c e n t S a v i n g s Bond 1 9 6 5 - 7 $ . 3 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t War Loan ( u n d a t e d ) . 2 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t Consol ( u n d a t e d ) . F i n a n c i a l Times. D i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n y i e l d on 2 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t C o n s o l s a n d s h a r e y i e l d , F i n a n c i a l Times. <7 INTEREST ARBITRAGE, NEW YORK / LONDON Friday figures 3-MONTH RATE TREASURY DIFFERENTIAL BILL AND RATES 3-MONTH FORWARD STERLING 1 , ; SFIEAD IN FAVOI Of 10ND0N + ! / J W v v x ' - x / ' x ^ r x / ^ ^ FOIWAtD IATI Diicdit 1 L . - RATE DIFFERENTIAL WITH FORWARD EXCHANGE COVER V v v -