Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : May 9, 1960
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
n DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS ,Y,AY i i 196C Mot for Publication May 9, I960. H.llt CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS H TlffillHTED STATES AND CANADA. Part I - United States The volume of large public security financing for new capital last week was very small for corporations, but substantial for State and local governments. This week, the volume of corporate offerings is expected to be somewhat larger while the volume of State and local government bonds is expected to be much smaller than in recent weeks. During the week ending May 6, one large corporate stock issue for $26 million was offered, and two State and local government issues with total proceeds of $182 million (one was a $133 million Public Housing Authorities issue) were sold. The calendar for this week, ending May 13, includes corporate issues totaling $70 million and a local government issue for $30 million. Bond yield8 - Changes in yields on outstanding bonds were mixed last week. Yields on lower grade corporate bonds increased; yields on Aaa cozporate and Baa State and local government bonds remained stable3 and those for U. S. Government and Aaa State and local government bonds declined. Stock prices - Stock prices, on balance, increased slightly last week. Standard and Poor's index of 500 common stocks closed at Sk» 75 on May 6, one per cent higher than a week earlier. Trading activity declined with daily volume averaging 2.8 million shares a day. More detailed information concerning recent capital market developments is presented in the attached exhibits. Developments in the Canadian capital markets are presented in Part II at the end of this report. Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. HIGH-GRADE BOND YIELDS *\f LOWER-GRADE BOND ( /vf U . S . GOVERNMENT YIELDS J — STATE AND 11.1U Exhibit B - Tables for Exhibit A High-grade Bond Yields Date U. S. Govt, long-term 2/ Corporate Aaa 1/ • Spread between U. S. Govt, and State and Corporate Aaa local Aaa State and lodal govt. Aaa y (Per cent) Low High Low High Low I960 - High Low 2.85 (V23) It.lit (9/27) 3-55 (5/2) lt.6l (12/31) U.09 (1/9) It. 61 (1/29) L W t (it/8) 2.16 (8/6) 3.76 (10/18) 3.07 (lt/25) It. 37 (12/31) 3.83 (1/2) It. 12 (1/8) It. 00 (3/25) Apr. 8 Apr. 15 Apr. 22 Apr. 29 May 6 2/ It.ltlt L 1,5 It. 1:5 lt.lt6 lt.lt6 it. 10 lt.18 it. 21 -li.20 lt.17 195U 1957 1958 1959 - V l.90 (9/2) 3.1t5 (8/29) 2.6k (5/1) 3.65 (9/2lt) 3.06 (3/26) 3.53 (1/7) 3.28 (li/7) .30 .60 .22 .50 .16 .1*6 .19 .30 .1*7 .3lt .92 .53 .92 .68 3.28 3.29 3.29 3.3k 3.32 .3lt .27 .21 .26 .29 .82 .89 .92 .86 .85 Lower-grade Bond Yields Date Corporate Baa 1/ State and local govt. Baa 3/ Spread between Aaa and Baa State and • Corporate local govt. (Per cent) Low High Low High Low i960 - High Low 3.lilt (12/31) 5.10 (11/29) lt.51 (7/11) 5.32 (12/31) It. 83 (li/17) 5.36 (2/12) 5.17 (lt/8) 2.93 (8/5) It. 51 (8/29) 3.6U (5/1) lt.lt6 (7/2) 3.92 (3/26) h.U6 (1/7) It. 22 CV7) Apr. 8 Apr. 15 Apr. 22 Apr. 29 May 6 2/ 5.17 5.18 5.21 5.23 5.27 L23 a. 28 It. 28 195U 1957 1958 1959 - It. 22 k.2h .52 1.27 .77 .77 .56 .81 .71 .73 .73 .76 .77 .61 ': .96 1.21 .93 .98 .79 .97 .93 .9lt .95 .9lt .91 .96 2/ Preliminary. 1/ Weekly average of dally figures. Average term of bonds Included Is 25-26 years. 2/ Weekly average of dully figures. The series Includes bonds due or callable In 10 years or more. 3/ Thursday figures. Only general obligation bonds are Included; average tens Is 20 years. Note.—Highs and lows are for Individual series and may be on different dates for different series. . J STOCK MARKET MORTGAGE AND BOND YIELDS • ^ A7> lvxldbil ti - Tablet: f o r KxhibiL C Stock Market Stock price index 1/ Date 1957-59 - High Low i960 - high Low March Anril Apr. 22 Apr. 29 May 6 g/ "5 Trading Common volume stock yields 2/ (million0 (per cent) of shares) 60.51 (7/31/59) 39.70 (12/27/57) 59.50 (1/6) 3.07 4.66 3.18 3.51 55.02 3.45 55.73 55.42 514.37 51.75 3.43 3.19 3.16 $k. 2k (3AD 3.a Stock market customer credit Customers1 Bank Total debit bal- loans to ances k/ "others" 5/ (Mil] ions of do]Liars) 4.3 4,761, 3.6 2.1 4, 365 4,158 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 4,158 n.a. n.a. l.k 3,55 k 3,W1 2,482 3,198 3,028 1,373 1,060 1,167 1,130 3,028 1,1.30 . 1,116 1,114 1,116 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.—Not available. g/ Preliminary. 1/ Stimdard and Poor's -*«mposite Index of 500. oomnon stocks, weekly closing prices, 1941-43=10. Monthly data are averages of dally figures rather than of Fridays' only. Highs and lows are for Fridays' data only. 2/ Standard and Poor's composite stock yield based on Wednesday data converted to weekly closing prices by Federal Reserve. Yields shown are for dates on which price Index reached its high or low. 3/ Averages of dally trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange. 4/ End of month figures for member firms of the New York Stock Exchange which carry margin accounts, excludes balances secured by U. S. Government obligations. 5/ Wednesday figures for weekly reporting member banks. Excludes loans for purchasing or carrying U. S. Government securities« Prior to July 1, 1959, such loans aire excluded only at banks in New York and Chicago. Weekly reporting banks account for about 70 per cent of loans to others. For further detail see Bulletin. Mortgage and Bond Yields 1/ - FHA mortgages 2/ • 1953-1958 - High Low 1959 - high Low 1959 - December 1960 - January February March April • £S M' 6.23 Aaa corporate ' bonds 1/ Mew 3/ 5.57 5.29. il.29 6.23 5.16 4.12 2.85 4.58 It. 12 5Z , Spread between new corporate bonds and FHA mortf-'.aKes | Seasoned bonds is® 4.58 It. 61 4.56 It. 19 1.96 .54 1.29 .83 .90 -.12 .77 .15 1.07 1.29 .58 .34 .40 .17 .34 ••m 6.21* 6.23 6.22 4.95 ii.96 4.66 14.79 4.45 tw«nfields ^^utntondln^^cnds^ln these !pr""l between yl — >t.v# type, «m. u! " c ;r.m/{«a In inUu.it: % thn nprm.l.b r w * of dully data. See Exhibit B. ? A/ Mo ody';» Inventor" Service. Monthly 1.2? 1.56 — Tte "r"e - -6- Exhibit E Long-term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) I960 January February March April May June E/ 596 E/739 E/775 e/725 e/700 New capital Corporate 1/ State and local 2/ I960 1 1959 1 1958 1 1959 1 1958 81*0 716 631 728 899 791 67k 1,11*0 597 887 July August September 531 718 709 1,107 51*0 1,111* October November December 887 8# 936 1st 2nd 3rd Uth quarter quarter quarter quarter 0/2,110 1st half Three quarters Year 2,216 2,561* 1,9# 2,688. 1*,780 6,738 9,U27 73k # e/700 e/650 &62 518 920 3,139 2,623 2,760 2,300 5,762 8,522 10,823 e/l,81*6 638 858 6U6 593; 1,006 812 In 798 If- F 1*68 806 1*03 651 593 513 1*55 1*56 1*71* 1*35 2,11*2 2,531 1,51-9 1,562 2,276 2,2 Ul* 1,860 1,365 M73. 6,223 1*,520 6,380 7,71*6 rrn Excluding finance companies hj 1st 2nd 3rd Uth quarter quarter quarter quarter e/1,760 Year 2,011 2,1*09 1,695 2,51*9 2,899 2,586 2,731 2,213 8,665 10,1*29 e/ Estimated. w 1/ Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of net proceeds. 2/ Investment Bankers Association of America estimates of principal amounts. 3/ Includes $718.3 million AT&T convertible debenture issue. U/ Total nev capital issues excluding offerings of sales and consumer finance companies. h..l'i Exhibit F Other Security Oi'ferings 1/ (In millions of dollars) Long-term Foreign government 2/ Federal agency ;M I960 I960 | 1959 1959 1 1958 1 January February March 1JU7 April May 196 53 77 59 2 56 50 1*2 . . 182 150 175 139 198 120 — 523 JulyAugust September 85 1 36 9 5 17 October. November December 33 1*2 70 58 123 74 86 992 707 Year #8 190 1*28 295 233 1*60 273 April May 563 1*11 245 July August September October November December 268 ' 3#' 2/363 Year - 161). ' 98 150 — 220 Short-term State and local government k/ January February March 1,163 251 199 — 1958 — 2,321 Federal agency 3/ 359 500 1*89 371 208 11*1* 357 351* , 26h 1*86 675 289 209 161 329 2l*6 1*67 399 289 1*23 369 727 365 665 1*37 206 330 235 31*3 358 231 1*15 21*3 733 1*71 288 1*51* ' 111* 137 li,179 3,910 6,01*7 1*79 1*63 3,098 2/ Preliminary. 1/ Data presented In this exhibit differ from those In Exhibit E In that- refunding Issues, * 0 well as new capital Issues, are Included. Long-term securities are defined as those maturing In mare than one year. 2/ Includes securities offered In the United States by foreign governments and their subdivisions and by International organizations. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 3/ Issues not guaranteed by the U. S. Goveriwer.t. Source: long-term, Securities and Exchange Commission; short-term, Federal Reserve. 4/ Principally tax and bond anticipation notus, warrants or certificates and Public Housing Authority not**. In some instances PHA rotes included may have a somewhat longer term than one year. Source: Bond Buyer. J Exhibit G Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U. S. Treasury) 1/ Proceeds of Large Issues Offered (Millions of dollars) Corporate Month 1959 - April May 359 3U2 281* 110 363 199 Loo 1*21 230 279 262 38U '309 July August September October November December I960 - January February March April State and local government 563 258 635 19ii 263 21JU 29l 163 217 388 283 225 370 Other 2/ 20 50 60 50 98 175 20 70 100 320 191 71 Large Individual Issues Offered May 1 through 6 Issuer Type 3/ Amount Coupon Offering (millions Maturity of / net, inter- yield dollars) est cost Rating CORPORATE Columbia Gas Sys., Inc. Com. stk. 26.0 STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT State of Minnesota Pub. Housing Authorities G.O. G.O. I18.8 1961-79 3.U5 133.1961-2000/75 3.83 2.50-3.50 Aa 2.1*0-3.90 Aaa OTHER 1/ Includes corporate and other security offerings of #15 million and over; State and local government security offerings of*$10 million and over. 2/ Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal agencies. 3/ In the case of State and..,local government securities, G.O. denotes general obligations; Rev.-Ut., revenue obligations secured only by income from public utilities; Rev.-Q.Ut., revenue bonds secured only by revenue from quasi-utilities; Rev.-S.T,, revenue bonds secured by revenue from specific taxes only; Rev.-Rent., revenue bonds secured solely by lease payments. -9- Exhibit H Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U. S. Treasury) 1/ Expected Proceeds from Forthcoming Large issues During month following date shown State and Other 2/ Corporate local govt. Date of computation 2k6 1959 - Apr. 30 May 29 June 30 July 31 Aug. 31 Sept. 30 Oct. 30 Nov. 30 Dec. 31 I960 - Jan. 29 Feb. 29 Mar. 31 Apr. 29 287 165 238 198 37k 385 226 210 207 301 299 202 251* 21*7 11*6 356 385 270 115 295 1*1*5 210 255 250 21*3 Subsequent to date shown State and Other 2/ Corporate local govt. 50 50 25 70 30 1*5 35 -1 — Forthcoming Large Offerings, as of Issuer Type 31*6 332 272 305 517 691* 509 271 280 252 372 31*1* 357 517 761 500 1*0 6 1*02 1*70 336 1*85 51*5 310 385 280 258 50 50 25 70 30 1*5 35 May 6 Amount Approximate date (millions of offering of dollars) CORPORATE Uris Building Corp. Wisconsin Telephone Co. General American Transportation Corp. Wisconsin Electric Power Co. Milwaukee Gas Light Co. Midwestern Gas Transmission Co. Texas Eastern Transmission Corp. Michigan Wisconsin Pipe Line Co. Southern Electric Generating Co. National Cash Register Co. ^Montgomery Ward Credit Corp. Commerce Oil Refining Corp. ' S.F. deb. Deb. E.T. Com. stk. 1st mtg., bds. 1st mtg., bds. Deb. 1st mtg. p. 1. bds. 1st mtg. bdw. S.F. deb. Deb. Deb., bds. & com. 20.0 20.0 30.0 18.1 22.0 60.0 25.0 30.0 k0.0 1*0.0 50.0 1*5. o May 11 May 11 May 12 May 17 (rights expire) May 18 May 2l* May 26 June 2 June 3 June 3 June Indefinite STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT Jacksonville, Fla. Cincinnati, Ohio Detroit Sch. Dist., Michigan *Denver, Colorado *King Co. Sch. Dist. No. 1, Wash. Rev.-Ut. G.O. G.O. Rev.-Ut. G.O. 30.0 12.2 19.3 11.8 10.0 May 10 May 17 May 2l* May 25 June 1 -10- h-2 Forthcoming Large Offerings, as of May 6 (Cont'd) Issuer Type Amount Approximate aate (millions of offering of dollars) STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT (Cont'd) I cr.r his, ferncssee -Los Angeles Dept. of v.tr. & p^r., California -"-State of Michigan QThKR 0.v. 15.0 June 7 Rev.-Ut. Rev.-Ut. 15.0 25.0 June 8 June lii ^ ix one - *-—Included ir table for first time. 1/ Includes corporate and other issues of s,l5 million and over; State and local government issues of $10 million and over. 2/ Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal agencies. Note.—Deletions for reasons other than sale of issue: None. Exhibit I Yields on New and Outstanding Electric Power Bonds, Rated Aa and A 1/ Date 1952 - 1958 High Low 1959 - January February March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 25 Ibc. 8 9 10 i960 — Jan. 7 Feb. 25 26 Mar. 15 16 18 29 Apr. 6 8 lit 21 27 A-rated offering yields Aa-rated offering yields Amount above Amount above Actual Actual seasoned yields (per cent) (per cent) seasoned yields (basis points) (basis points) 5.00 ( 9 M / 5 7 ) 2.93 (3/31/5U) 87 -3 37 h 10 17 37 29 31 23 U.97 <95 *k.93 U.83 5.132/ 5.08 5.30 36 1*2 ' 63 5.08 5.10 tSf 1*1* 1*6 32 17 L85 33 l*.9l* 39 k.95 - 5.50 (11/7/57) 3.00 (3/17/51i) 123 -15 *k.7& 23 *11.67 18 25 15 17 i:£y 5.07 *5.65 5.33 60 W 5.1*5 51 50 28. 5.00 1*.93 11 7 ... t.98 5.30 . 21 50 39 *—Single observation, not an average. 1/ Covers only 30-year first mortgage bonds, as reported in Moody's Bond Survey. Except where indicated, the actual yield figure and the amount above seasoned yields are averages of offerings during the indicated period and of the differences between these new offering yields and yields on seasoned issues of similar quality for the same day. Average maturity for the seasoned issues varies from 26 to 28 years. 2/ Provides for a 5-year period during which issue may not be called for refunding at a lower coupon rate. Monthly averages so marked include one or more issues with such a provision. Other issues have no such provision. y Includes one issue which provides for a 7-year period during which the issue may not be called for refunding at a lower coupon rate. May 9, I960 -12- Part II - Canada There was a general decline in money and capital market yields in Canada last week. Sharp drops in both the 3-month and 6-month Treasury bills brought their yields substantially below the corresponding U.S. bill rates. Yields on most government bonds declined further and were at or near the lowest recorded during i960. Corporate bond yields also declined. As a result of the substantial expansion in bank loans last week, seasonally adjusted loans during April expanded for the second straight month. Money market conditions. There were sharp drops in the yields on the 3-month and 6-month Canadian Treasury bills last week. The 3-month bill fell by Wi basis points from 3*26 per cent to 2.82 per cent, the lowest yield recorded since 1958 (see Table). The 6-month bill fell by U3 basis points from 3.1*3 per cent to 3.00 per cent. As a result, the Canadian yields for both these bills declined substantially below yields for the corresponding United States bills» The closing averages on day-today money declined from 3.38 per cent to 3.10 per cent. Because of the sharp fall in the Canadian bill, the incentive shifted in favor of holding United States bills during the week* It amounted to about 0.21 per cent per annum on May 5; the Canadian bill was 27 basis points below the United States bill and the 3-months Canadian dollar was at a premium of 0.06 per cent (see Table). A week earlier, there was a net incentive of 0.10 per cent per annum in favor of the Canadian 3-month bill. During the week, the public reduced their bill holdings by $26 million; on the buying side, the Bank of Canada acquired $9 million and the chartered banks $17 million. Bond market conditions. Bond yields last week were at or near I960 lows for most government securities. The spread between comparable Canadian and United States securities (Thursday yields for bills and Wednesday yields for bonds) was as follows (figures in parenthesis refer to the previous week): -0.27 -0.U2 0.76 0.93 1.bl per per per per per cent cent cent cent cent on on on on on a 91-day bill (0.10) a 182-day bill (-0.13) an 8-year bond (0.90) a 20-year bond (0.96) a 35-year bond (l.UO) For the second straight week, the Bank of Canada acquired additional bonds; it sold $20 million of over 2-year bonds but bought $3U million of under 2-year maturities. Not since April 6 has the Bank been a net seller of bonds (see Table). In the corporate and local government sectors, continued strength was in evidence. On May 2, yields averaged about 10 basis points below -13the April 1 levels, in large part a reflection of the reduced Federal cash needs estimated for the next H months. Recent movements in average bond yields of average maturities of about 15 years were as follows (in per cent per annum): May 2 10 10 10 10 UO industrials public utilities municipals provinces bond average 5.91 5.93 6.06 5.7k 5.91 April 1 6.00 6.02 6.2k 5.79 6.01 Nov. 2 (1959) 6.03 6.00 6.53 6.06 6.15 Source: McLeod, Young, Weir and Co. Prices moved upward during the week. A Bell Telephone 6-l/U per cent bond of 1978 moved up from 103 on April H* to 103-lA last week and a Quebec Hydro 6 per cent bond of 1979 was also up. one-fourth point at 103-1/2. The $15 million, 6-1/2 per cent Alberta Gas Trunk Line 20-year debentures with warrants, offered at par, quickly moved to a premium. A new municipal offering in the United States was announced last week when the City of Montreal called for tenders (on May 25) for a $28 million 20-year debenture with a coupon at or about 6 per cent* Chartered banks. Bank loans expanded during April for the second straight month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, monthly bank loans declined by $235 million from a peak in August 1959 to a low in February I960; they rose by $15 million in March and by $U8 million in April. During April# the banks were net sellers of governments, especially Treasury bills, as they built up their liquidity position (see Table). Exchange rate. The spot rate on the Canadian dollar declined again last week from 103.72 (U.S. cents) the week before to 103.30 on May 5• The 3-montbs forward dollar returned to. a slight premium. Recent market rates for the spot Canadian dollar and the 3-month discount at close of business on Thursday were as follows (in U.S. cents): Spot March 17 31 April 7 lU 21 28 May 5 105.27 IOU.38 IOU.OO 103.86 103.67 103.72 103.30 Discount (-) or premium (+) on 3 mo. Canadian dpi i -0.13 -0.07 -0.03 +0.03 +O0O3 0 +0.01 -lliStock market. Prices of industrial stocks in the Canadian exchanges recovered slightly early last week but by May 2 had fallen below the prices one week ago: April 25 27 May 2 Toronto industrials Montreal industrials U85.81 U88.23 U8U.60 283.5 283.1 280.9 British Commonwealth Section Division of International Finance Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System New YorkStandard & Poor 1 58.U2 58.63 57.59 -15- Selected Government of Canada Security Yields Date Intermediate a Spread between Canadian & U.S. rates long-term 3-mo» z bondH/ billsZZ till 3-month Treasury bills!/ 1 9 # - High 1958 - Low 1959 - High Low I960. - High Low U.Oo 0.87 6.16 3.25 5.1U 2.82 a.8i 3.31 5.30 U.U5 5.55 5.oU U. 35 3.78 5.30 U.U1 5.12 5.15 April Ih 21 28 May 5 3.58 3.50 3.26 2.82 5.16 5.1 U 5.05 5.0U 5.22 5.2U . 5.22 5.17 f . Discouni on 3-mo, Canadiai dollar^/ 1.19 0.U7 1.22 0.91 2.96 0.30 0.90 -0.27 0.72 (P)0.12 0.98 0.99 0.96 0.93 0.06 0.15 0.10 -0.27 (P)0.12 (P)0.12 0.00 (P)0.06 Average yield at weekly tender on Thursday. Government of Canada 2 - 3 A per cent of June 1$, 1967-68. Government of Canada 3 - 1 / U per cent of 1 9 7 9 . E / U.S. Government 3 - 1 / U per cent of 1 9 7 8 - 8 3 . Government of Canada 3 - 1 / U per cent of 1979* Bnnd pricnr. :ir<3 Wednesday closing quota biono . 5/ Spread between Canadian auction rate and composite market yield for the U.S. bill on the close of business on Thursday. 6/ Spread between 3-months forward and spot price of the Canadian dollar, expressed as per cent per annum, on Thursday. Canada: Changes in Distribution of Holdings of Canadian Government Direct and Guaranteed Securities (millions of dollars, par value) Bank of Canada Treas. Bonds bills March 3 10 17 23 30 + + + + + 31 31 11 1*3 25 - k - 7 - 10 April 6 13 20 27 May h + + + + 28 37 1U 10 9 Source: Government Total Chartered banks Treas. bills Bonds - 3h - 6 - 3 - 18 - 17 - 10 + 12 - 33 - .1 + 9 + 2 + 1U - 10 - 3 . 0 + 16 - 30 0 0 + 7 + Ih - 3 - 11 + 3 + 2 + 1 - 10 - 33 - h + 7 + 17 + 9 +' 3 + 2 - 18 - 7 - 9 Bank of Canada, Weekly Financial Statsitics. General public Treas, Bonds bills 1 V - 27 - 7 0 - 32 - 12 - 6 + 28 + 23 + 3 + 11 + + - + - 19 1U ' 11 3 26 32 17 10 1 15