Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : January 16, 1961
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V DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS January 16, 1961. I C A P I T A L MARKET DEVELOPMENTS D P T H E " UNITED 'STATES AND CANADA (Including Monthly Review of Financial Developments in the United Kingdom) Part I - United States (Including Monthly Review of Sources and Uses of Funds of Financial Intermediaries) Three la^ge State and local government bond issues with aggregate proceeds of $1^2 million were offered to the public last week5 no large corporate issues were sold. This week, ending January 20, large corporate issues totaling $U5 million and State and local government issues amounting to $138 million are scheduled for sale. Long-term bond yields- - Yields increased last week for all categories of outstanding bonds, except those for higfi-grade corporate bonds which declined slightly. The increase was slight for yields on Baa corporate and for State and local government bonds, but somewhat greater for those on U. S. Government obligations. A new Aa-rated first mortgage electric utility bond issue was offered to investors last week to yield h„ 60 per c e n t — W basis points below the yield for the last comparable issue, an offering made in early December. The spread between this yield and that on similar outstanding bonds was 11 basis points, the narrowest since early 1959 • Short- and intermediate-term interest rates - Yields on the sixmonth bills and three- to five-year Government obligations increased last week, while rates on three-month bills remained stable. Rates on 90- to 179-day directly placed finance company paper changed little last week as companies continued to quote the rates announced a week earlier. Other major short-term rates were unchanged. Mortgage and bond yields - In December average yields in the private secondary market on selected unseasoned 5 - 3 A per cent FHA new home mortgages declined slightly further to 6.0U per cent. Yields on new corporate bonds rose sharply (to k»79 per cent) narrowing the spread to the smallest since December 195£. Stock prices - Stock prices increased sharply last week in expanded trading activity. Standard and Poor's index of 500 common stocks closed at 59.60 on January 13, two per cent higher than a week earlier and only one per cent below the i960 high reached on January 5» Trading volume, averaging ii.lt million shares a day, was the largest since mid-October 1958. Institutional investors - Combined savings inflow in November at three major types of financial institutions—life insurance companies, savings and loan associations and mutual savings banks—was $1.2 billion, about one-fourth greater than in either 1558 or 1959. Since August, growth at each of these institutions has been larger than in the corresponding months of 1959 and for the first eleven months as a whole, their combined growth was nearly one-tenth larger. (Time and savings deposits at commercial banks have also increased much more in recent months than in 1959.) The increase in life insurance company assets in November was $522 million, 5 per cent more than a year earlier. There was a slight net acquisition of U. S. Government securities in contrast with heavy liquidation in November 1959. The net increase in holdings of business securities was slightly smaller than a year ago and the increase in holdings of mortgages was one-eighth smaller. Inflow to savings and loan associations continued to increase at a record pace in November. The $658 million increase in share capital was nearly three-eighths larger than in November 1959. Net acquisition of mortgages was one-eighth larger than a year earlier. This is the first month in i960 when net purchases of mortgages have been larger than in the corresponding month of 1959 as these associations have used some of their funds to repay borrowings. (There was a very small increase in borrowed funds in November.) , Deposits at mutual savings banks increased $39 million in November in contrast with a $27 million decline in 1959. The increase in mortgage holdings was nearly two-fifths larger than duxing November 1959. Net purchases of business securities were small in November. More detailed information concerning recent capital market developments is presented in the attached exhibits. Developments in the Canadian capital markets are presented in Part II at the end of this report. Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics," Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. LONG-TERM BOND YIELD* HIGH-GRADE /Vf l . r U.S. GOVtlHMENT K / - LOWER-GRADE TA,y V H.ll* Exhibit B - Tables for Exhibit A Long-term Bond Yields High-grade Date Corporate Aaa 1/ U. S. Govt, long-term 2/ 2 . 8 5 (LJ/23) 2.15 (8/6) 3.76 (10/18) -5- Spread between U. S. Govt, and State and Corporate Aaa local Aaa State and local govt. Aaa y (Per cent) 195U 1957 1958 1959 - Low High Low High Low 1960 - High Low Dec. 16 Dec. 23 Dec. 30 Jan. 6 Jan.13 s/ BE 1.90(9/2) s i ® l*.6l (12/31) U.09 (1/9) L 6 1 (1/29) 1*.23 (9/9) 3.75 (8/5) k.3k k.3h 3.86 3.86 3.06 (3/26) 3.53 ( V 7 ) 2.99 (9/1) 3.12 .30 .1*7 .31* .92 .53 .92 .53 .1*8 .7it .7U .71 .71 .76 .1$ 3.12 3.H 3.82 U.35 ii.3U li.33 .30 .60 .22 .50 .16 .59 .19 .53 .50 .13 3.84 3.90 Lower-grade Date Corporate Baa 1/ State and local govt. Baa y Spread between Aaa and Baa State and Corporate local govt. (Per cent) 1951 1957 1958 1959 Low High Low High Low 1960 - High Low Dec. Dec. Dec. Jan. Jan. - 16 • 23 30 6 13 e/ 3. Ill* (12/31) SIS® £:$ 1 5.36 (2/12) lt.98 (9/9) 5.10 5.09 5.09 5.08 5.10 2.93 (8/5) 3 @ 1*.1*6 (7/2) 3.92 (3/26) It. 1*6 (1/7) 3.98 (12/22) k.06 3.98 3.98 1*.03 U.OU .52 1.27 .77 .96 1.21 1 .79 1.08 .86 .71 .77 .75 .77 '.la .91* .86 .87 .90 .90 o/ PrelUdnary. y Weekly average of dally figures. Average tern of bonds included Is 26-26 years. 2/ Weekly average of dully figures. The series includes bends due or callable in 10 years or more. 3/ Thursday figures. Only general obligation bonds are Included« average term Is 20 years. Mete.—Highs and lows are for Individual series and may be on different dates for different series. SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE- TERM INTEREST RATES GOVERNMENT / 13 - 5 YUI ISSUES « A asEr W ) U J V J 1 1 3 . MONTH IIUS . I. DISC0UNT_ UTE Ir •AtlET YIELDS w..u„ " 'P., PRIVATE STOCK EXCHANGE I CAtl IQAHS L V M57 i ^FINANCE C •PANT PAPlT fits! mi mo" -7- Exhibit D - Tables for Exhibit C Short- and Intermediate-term Interest Rates Government Date Discount rate 1/ 3-month bills 2/ Yields 6-month bills 2/ 3-5 year issues 2/ Spread between yields on 3-month bills and yields on it6-mo. • —u'ry-iri v r»-::r• bills 13-5 yr. a' issues"" (per cent) 1951* 1957 1958 1959 - 1.50 3.50 1.75 In 00 2.50 It.OO 3.00 .61 (6/11) — 3.61* ( 1 0 A 8 ) .58 (5/29) 3.02 lt.57 (12/21*) lt.91 2.63 (2/20) 2.92 1*.59 (1/8) 5.07 2.11 (10/28) 2.38 Dec. Dec. Dec. Jan. Jan. 16 23 30 6 13 EZ 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.25 2.21* 2.18 2.28 2.28 Low High Low High Low i960 - High Low Date Stock Exchange call loan 1 / 1.66 (V30) l*.0l* ( 1 0 A 8 ) (12/26) 2.1U (6/6) (12/31) 5.00 (12/21*) (1/2) 3.70 (1/2) (1/8) 1*.97 (1/8) (12/30) 3.10 (12/30) 2.50 2.1*2 2.38 2.1*8 2.51 3.1*9 3.1*6 3.1*0 3.39 3.52 .66 .86 .01* 1.1*2 .1*0 1.81 .38 .26 .79 .19 .58 .16 .25 .18 .20 .20 .23 , . 1.21* 1.22 1.22 1.11 1.21* Spread between 3-month Prime Finance company Treasuxy bill yield and finance company rate 1 / paper J/ paper rates (per cent) 1951* 1957 1958 1959 - 3.00 1*.50 3.50 5.00 Loo 5.50 l*.5o Dec. Dec. Dec. Jan. Jan. 16 23 30 6 13 jo/ l*.5o l*.5o l*.5o 1*.50 l*.5o Low High Low High Low I960 - High Low 3.00 l*.5o -3.50 5.00 1*.00 5.00 l*.5o 1*.50 1*. 50 l*.5o l*.5o l*.5o 1.25 (12/31) 3.88 (11/15) 1.13 ( 8 / 8 ) 1*. 88 (12/31) 3.00 ( 3 / 6 ) 5 . 1 3 (1/22) 2.88 (11/1*) 3.06 2.91 2.88 2.83 2.81 0 .59 -.35 .86 .13 1.02 .22 (12/18) (7/19) (8/29) (10/9) (12/1*) (3/25) (1*/15) .81 .67 .70 .55 .53 1/ Weekly rets ehown la that In effect at end of parlod. Dleoeant rate la. for Federal f'eaervti Bank of Hew York. Stock axohange cell loan rate la going rate on call loans secured by euateaera' atook exchange collateral at New York City banks. Prime rate la that charged fcy large bunks on ahort-tera loans to business borrowers of the highest credit etandlry. 2/ Market yield; weekly avern^ee ooeipirted from dally cloning bid prices. Series of 3-5 year Issuea ooncista of ealeoted notes and bona*. 3/ Average of dally rates put.ll »lud tiy fimn«» ooapanlee for dlreotly placed paper for vnrylnc maturities In the 10-179 di»y ruivi*. , Hole.-—Hixhe and lows are for lnUlvldunl series.u,nd may be on different dates for <W f ferent aeries. For spreads, nlgi! refer a to widest, and low to narrowest.' STOCK MARKET Seoicned Exhibit F - Tables for Exhibit E -9- Stock Market Date Common stock yields 2/ (per cent) Stock price index 1/ 1957-59 - High Low i960 - High Low 60.51 39.78 59.50 53.32 November December Dec. 30 Jan. 6 Jan. 13 2/ 55.1*7 56.83 58.11 58.1$ 59.60 (7/31/59) (12/27/57) (1/8) (10/21) Trading volume 2/ (millions of shares) 3.07 4.66 3.18 3.62 4.3 1.1* 4.1 2.2 3.51 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.6 4.4 3.a 3.35 3.32 3.26 Stock market customer credit Customers1 Dank Total debit bal- loans to ances 1*/ "others11 5/ (Mil]Lions of do!Liars) 4,761* 3,ll01 1,373 1,060 2,1(82 3,551* 1,181* 4,365 3,198 1,111 1*,132 3,00k U,29l* n.a. n.a. n.a. . n.a. 3,11(1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,153 1,181* 1,181* 1,189 n.a. n.a,—Not available. g/ Preliminary. 1/ Standard and Poor's Tmposlte index of 500. common stocks, weekly closing prices, 1941-43=10. Monthly data are averages of daily figures rather than of Fridays' only. Highs and lows are for Fridays' data only. 2/ Standard and Poor's composite stock yield based on Wednesday data converted to weekly closing prices by Federal Reserve. Yields shown are for dales on which price index reached its high or low. 3/ Averages of daily trading volume on the New York Stock Bxoluinge. 4/ End of month figures for member firms of the New York Stock Exchange which carry margin accounts, excludes balances secured by U. S. Government obligations. 5/ Wednesday figures for weekly reoorting member banks. Excludes loans for purchasing or carrying U. S. Government securities• Prior to July 1, 1959, such loans are excluded only at banks in New York and Chicago. Weekly reporting banks account for about 70 per cent of loans to others. For further detail see Bulletin. Mortgage and Bond Yields 1/ FHA mortgages 2/ 1953-58 - High Low 1959-60 - High Low 5.63 (11/57) 4.56 (2/55) i960 - August September October November December 6.13 6.21* (1/60) 5.57 (3/59) j Spread between new Aaa corporate corporate bonds and bonds 1/ New* 3/ '\ Seasoned U/ FHA mortf/anes | Seasoned bonds 1*.81 2.71* 5.29 4.29 (6/57) (3/54) (9/59) (2/59) 4.12 (5/57) 2.84 (4/54) I4..61 (1/60) 4.12 (1/59) 1.96 .54 1.76 .83 4.28 4.25 4.30 4.31 4.35 1.76 .90 —•12 .77 .08 mmmm 6.11 6.09 6.05 6.0lt Digitized for 4/ MFRASER o o V 5 Inventors Service. Monthly 1*.37 1*.1*5 ii.60 1*.59 4.79 a v e r t s of daily data. See Exhibit B. 1.2*9 .09 .20 .30 1.25 .44 1.66 1.1*6 .28 10- Exhibit G Long-term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) New capital Corporate 1/ State and local 2/ | I960 1961 | I960 1 1959 1 1959 1961 January February March e/500 577 715 860 821 738 646 766 567 1,031* 739 623 582 639 858 646 894 785 887 731 550 1,033 932 593 1,006 727 962 738 535 740 703 572 602 6# 567 516 165 October November December 2/965 a/927 e/850 879 864 900 336 E/468 2/500 597 519 155 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2,151 2,367 2,127 e/2,7k2 2,204 2,567 1,979 2,612 1,913 2,311 1,863 e/l,3c4 2,143 2,531 1,548 1,571 4,519, 6,915 e/9,687 L, 771 6,750 9,392 .1,257 6,200 e/7,424 4,674 6,222 7,793 April May June July August September quarter quarter quarter quarter 1st half > Three quartos. Year e/750 . Excluding finance companies 3/ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th quarter quarter quarter quarter Year 1,722 2,150 2,017 e/2,3U2 1,999 2,412 1,716 2,503 e/8,231 8,630 ' e7 Estimated. jy7 Preliminary. 1/ Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of net proceeds. 2/ Investment Bahkfcrs Association of America estimates of principal amounts. 3/ Total new capital issues excluding offerings of sales and consumer finance companies. H.U Exllibit H -11- Other Security Offerings 1/ (In millions of dollars) Long-•tem Foreign government 2/ Federal agency 3/ I960 I960 1 1958 1 1959 1 1 1959 JanuaryFebruary March 2 175 70 01 60 2 196 53 182 150 150 — 199 175 April May June 3U 72 ho 58 50 139 198 120 July August September 25 1 36 85 1 35, 9 5 17 October November December 3k 33 30 70 58 123 7ii 2/181 86 517 99.2 2/1,673 707 2 Year h2 U18 35U 3hS 365 190 L28 295 233 160 273 April May 365 351 297 563 1*11 215 July August September 280 505 199 2ii6 October November December 2Sk 268 fiAl8 Year — . 523 — — 16U 199 — 98 150 — 220 160 lh9 Short--term State and local government h/ January February March 1958 1,163 251 — 2,321 Federal agency 3/ hl9 i;75 511 359 500 I489 371 208 H4J4 357 3SU 26h 509 632 1*35 I486 075 289 209 161 329 h 67 289 li23 369 312 li68 296 727 365 665 1*37 206 330 235 3h3 358 hlS ?31 210282 177. 733 U71 288 137 6,01(7 3,098 399 14,179 2lt3 3,910 £A 817 1,514 Ilk e/ Preltnlrnry. 1/ Data pre stinted in thie exhibit differ from thosj In Exhibit R In that refunding lajyns, an wall aa niw capital laauna, e.re included. Long-term Mouritlos are dnflnad 0.3 thoan natnv* ng In m^re than one yenr. 2/ Inoludos securities offered In the Unl tod States foreign /jovorr.monts anl tholr r-j'odt visions end by ln'.ernatlonal organisations. :our»»i Securities ami Sxuhr.age Commissi, 3/ 13HU13 not r> u/irrai«ad by tho U. S. Gov-rnnar.'.. Souroii lon'.;-t«m, Securltlos and foohongt Cor.nl nil on; short-term, Federal Reaorve. 4/ Principally tax and bond anticipation not*a, rarrnnts or certificates ar.d Public Homing Authority not«a. In sotno Instances VHA rote a lrrtlud*d may havs a somewhat longer tone tb<\n on* yo nr. Source i fiond Buy*r. —12— Large" Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U. S. Treasury) 1/ Proceeds of Large Issues Offered (In millions of dollars) Corporate Month 230 279 262 38k 309 139 U|2 303 #1 266 566 i65 260 1959 - December I960 - January February March April May July August September October November December State and local government Other 2/ 217 388 283 225 370 23k 561 191 298 70 •100 320 191 71 28 30 75 25 77 150 99 % k6 1% 222 Large Individual Issues Offered January 1 through 13 Issuer type 2/ Amount Coupon Offering (millions Hating Maturity net inter- yield of est cost dollars) CORPORATE None STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT Fulton Co., Georgia Port of New Orleans, La. Los Angeles Sch. Dists., California State of California OTHER None G.O. 0.0. 1962-87 14.5 17.0 1966-96/76 3.28 3.77 1.50-3.hS 2.1*0-3.90 Aa A G.O. G.O. 1961-85 30.0 95.0 1963-87/82 3.63 3.68 1.50-3.80 1.95-3.80 Aa Aa 1-2 -13- Footnotes Includes corporate and other security offerings of $15 million and over; State and local government security offerings of $10 million and over. 2/ Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal agencies. 2/ la the case of State and local government securities, G.O. denotes general obligations; Rev.-Ut., revenue obligations secured only by income from public utilities; Rev.-Q.Ut., revenue bonds secured only by revenue from quasi-utilitiei; Rev.-S.T., revenue bonds secured by re-venue from specific taxes only; Rev.-Rent., revenue bonds secured solely by lease paymmts. 1/ -14- Exhibit J Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U. S. Treasuiy) 1/ Expected Proceeds from Forthcoming Large Issues Date of computation 1 9 # T Dec. 31 i960 Jan. 29 Feb. 29 Mar. 31 Apr. 29 May 31 June 30 July 29 Aug. 31 Sept. 30 Oct. 31 Nov. 30 Dec. 30 During month following date shown State and Corporate Other 2/ local govt. 210 207 301 #9 202 483 237 596 216 576. ao 260 91 Subsequent to date shown State and Corporate Other 2/ local govt. 30 45 35 445 210 255 250 243 277 • 180 275 283 212 258 30 30 77 50 2h2 —— 412 — 280 372 372 344 357 553 1*55 1,006 731 836 #5 . 335 1,036 515 310 385 280 258 502 380 324 283 336 391 560 682 ' 30 45 35 60 30 127 50 —— — Forthcoming Large Offerings, as of January 13 Type Amount Approximate date (millions of offering of dollars) CORPORATE Texas Eastern Transmission Corp. Texas Eastern Transmission Coip. Lone Star Gas Co. Pfd. stk. 1st mtg. p.l. bds . Com. stk. 15.0 30.0 26.2 Brunswick Corp. Conv. sub. deb. 25.6 " Montgomery Ward Credit Coxp. Montgomery Ward Credit Corp. Consolidated Natural Gas Co. •^Southern Co. American Telephone & Telegraph Co. Commerce Oil Refining Corp. Liberian Iron Ore, Ltd. Realty Collateral Corp. Deb. Sub. deb. Deb. Com. stk. • Com. stk. Deb., bds. & com. Bds. & stk. Coll. tr. notes 25.0 25.0 45.0 30.0 e/800.0 45.0 30.0 20.0 Jan. 19 Jan. 19 Jan. 23 (rights expire) Jan. 25 (rights expire) Feb. 2 Feb. 2 Feb. 8 . Feb. 11 March (rights expire) Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT G.O. State of Oregon G.O. State of New To lie G.O. 1 Montgomery Co., Md. Rev.-Ut. Contra Costa Co. Wtr. Diet., Calif. for FRASER Rev.-Rent. Pennsylvania St. Pub. Sch.Bldg.Auth. Digitized 30.0 63.5 11.0 12.8 20.6 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 17 17 17 18 18 Forthcoming Large Offerings, as of January 13 (Cont'd) Issuer Ifrpe Amount Approximate date (millions of offering of dollars) STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT (Cont'd) New Yoik City, New York State of Maryland State of Connecticut ^Houston Ind. Sch. Dist., Texas *State of North Carolina Baltimore, Maryland #Dallas, Texas Los Angeles Dept. of Wtr. & Pwr., California Orleans Parish School Dist., La, Kentucky Turnpike Authority Dade County, Florida New York State Housing Fin. Agency G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev.-tit. G.O. Rev. G.O. Rev. 76.5 20.3 29.0 1U.0 10.0 ltf.o 19.0 12.0 10.0 55.0 U6.0 100.0 Jan. Jan. Feb. Feb . Feb. Feb. Feb. 2b 2k 1 6 8 15 20 Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite Indefinite OTHER None •—Included in table for fh^t time. e/ Estimated. 2/ Includes corporate and other issues of $15 million and over; State and local government issues of $10 million and over, 2/ Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal agencies. Note.—Deletions for reasons other than sale of issue: None. »l6e> Bxhlblt K Xields on New and Outstanding Electric Power Bonds, Bated Aa and A 1/ Date 1952-1959 - High Low 1959 - July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 19^0 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 10 12 Aa-rated offering yields Amount above Actual 5.30 (12/8/59) 2.93 (3/3V5U) *li.93 lt.83 5.13^/ *5.08 *5.30 ' 5.09 lt.82 lt.91 ii.88 . 87 -3 31 23 : 63 1,5 25 37 32 29 July 8 L82 L8U 25 27 13 Sept. 15 23 28 Oct, 5 21 Nov. h 16 17 18 Dec. 7 5.45 (9A8/59) 3.00 (3A7/5U) % t' 27 17 2U 22 It. 78 i».85 33 liO 5.00 . 149 123 -15 5.07 17 *5.65 5.33 60 1*3 4S/ 51 >.97 5.1U 5.10 5.20 25 June 17 28 Aerated offering yields Amount above Actual (per cent) seasoned yields (basis points) li.95 lt.93 28 3I 26 33 11 It. 88 It. 80 11 8 2lt I1.68 26 5.05 U3 *—Single observation, not an average. 1/ Covers only 30-year first mortgage bonds, as reported in Moody's Bond Survey. Except where indicated, the actual yield figure and the amount above eeaeoned yields are averages of offerings during the indicated period and of the differences between these new offering yields and yields on seasoned issues of similar quality for the same day. Average maturity for the seasoned issues varies fro* 26 to 28 years. 2/ Provides for a 5-year period during which issue may not be called for refunding at a lower coupon rate. Monthly averages so marked include one or more Issues with such a provision. Other issues have no such provision. -17Exhibit L Sources and Uses of Funds By Life Insurance Companies u. s. Cash Govt. ities Value of assets at end of period: •1,273 19^6 - Dec. 1,29k 1957 - Dec. 1,363 1958 - Dec. 1,327 1959 - Dec. 1,233 1960 - Nov. Uses of funds 1/ State and Busilocal govt. Mortness gages secursecurities 2/ ities Other Total sources or uses 32,99k 35,271 37,092 12,272 95,8kk ,521 " 17' H I (In millions of dollars)- 2,23k 6,8k8 6,W 39,552 42,133 i^,612 1*6,977 148,708 -17 55 110 11 19 -1U2 309 137 308 26 32 12 186 11*5 291 72 88 33k 587 1*76 913 1959 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June • July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. -81 -27 -111 -2k 10 3 -15 19 -31 22 33 99 303 -71 -185 22 -16 11 13 95 -185 -22 -131 -168 188 223 251 2h2 193 2l*2 211* 75 95 208 207 227 53 30 119 139 136 116 135 157 211* 171* 211 251 21*0 315 -17 17k 108 80 97 60 208 101 95 92 13k 226 1*98 1*96 728 k9k 200 559 1*99 722 I960 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept, Oct. Nov. Dec. -91 -53 -30 39 -12 33 12 k -51 -35° 27k 196 21*2 225 203 192 63 226 179 211* 208 82 207 115 95 128 211 206 175 122 11 102 Changes: 1958 — Oct • Nov. Dec. 7,519 7,028 7,182 128 125 -167 -85 -62 -102 P -I4O -6 -62 23 hjoU 13 it 231 125 167 168 1*0 198 2,377 2,691 3^5 66 1*9 79 23 9k 15 8 16 23 20 25 35 21 26 13 10I* k3 82 11 13,206 101,309 lit, 61:0 107,580 Uses of funds represent net changes in assets and therefore reflect ne than gross, uses. 2/ Includes securities of domestic corporations only. Source• —Institute of Life Insurance. l/ lis',056 576 1*61* 299 1*29 511* 1*69 628 -18Exhibit M Sources and Uses of Funds By Savings and Loan Associations Cash Value of assets at end of period 1956 - Dec. 1957 - Dec. 1958-- Dec. 1959 - Dec. 19&) - Nov. Changes: 1958 - Oct. Nov. Dec. 1959 - Jan, Feb. Mar. Apr. May July Aug. Sept. Oct, Nov. Dec. IS60 — Jan. Feb. Mar. . Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Uses of funds 1/ Total u. s. Mort- . Other sources Govt, gagesi/ assets or uses ities Sources of funds Net Borrow- Other change savings ing 3/ capital (In millions of dollars) 2,119 2,146 3,585 2,201 2,301 2,782 3,173 3,819 U,U7U 4,577 35,775 40,049 45,627 53,093 59,445 2,199 2,770 3,108 3,707 4,173 42,875 48,138 55,139 63,475 70,496 37,148 41,912 47,976 54,556 60,823 1,347 1,379 1,444 2,388 1,870 4,380 4,847 5,719 6,531 7,803 -107 42 335 104 5i 37 605 470 528 137 102 -53 739 665 847 507 480 1,072 58 41 212 174 144 -437 -298 -26 -2 -182 26 245 -1*32 -43 -53 -68 65 381 297 97 76 105 23 -4 104 17 -7 7 -34 -26 402 427 593 705 754 840 7% 727 670 621 459 485 -55 80 98 151 178 10 -108 22 65 88 140 -70 346 578 765 779 981 1,091 347 723 675 648 630 773 434 408 529 420 604 1,090 190 394 444 399 483 1,185 -181 -56 -5 97 63 313 31 118 148 136 57 223 93 226 241 262 314 -312 126 211 83 113 90 -635 320 398 545 566 634 779 640 712 649 ' 586 523 -113 62 100 104 209 -5? -151 2 57 • 74 174 94 494 667 64l 939 908 219 718 732 781 828 468 409 623 372 630 1,216 149 . 489 602 651 658 -453 -125 -127 38 3 211 -126 21 48 -21 13 79 210 171 231 306 -519 -314 -33 49 -30 81 329 -236 31 23 104 96 201 67 -27 1 15 -148 -34 -27 3 17 35 1/ 208 82 151 157 Uses of funds represent net changes in assets and therefore reflect net, rather than gross, uses. Savings and loan associations do not hold business securities and data on holdings of State and local government bonds, presumed to be small, are not available. 2/ Prior to 1957, data adjusted to include mortgage pledged shares as currently reported, 3/ Advances from Home Loan Banks and other borrowing. Source.—Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. -19- Exhibit N Sources and Uses of Funds By Mutual Savings Banks Cash Uses of funds 1/ Busi- State & U. S. local ness MortGovt, govt. securgages securities ities ities 2/ m tine of assets i end of period 1956 - Dec. 1957 - Dec. 3,958 - Dec. 1959 - Dec. 1960 - Nov* 920 890 921 829 788 langes: 1958 - Oct. Nov. . Dec. -8 . -92 -32 -38 -2 101 1959 - Jan. ]/ -96 18 Feb. Mar. 45 -114 Apr. 8 MayJune 43 July -79 Aug. 3 -2 Sept. -27 Oct. 20 Nov. 111 Dec. 1960 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. ' -131 37 41 -86 42 108 -69 -6 22 -8 9 6,861* 6,281 Sources of funds Net change in deposits Other 19,529 698 33,311 20,951 761 35,168 23,039 855 37,779 24,768 910 38,942 26,552 1,015 40,336 30,032 31,695 34,041 34,983 35,968 3,279 3,473 3,738 3,959 4,368 Other Total sources or uses (In millions of dollars) 3,523 4,331 1,973 4,849 5,023 669 682 725 722 677 -6 -3 -1 -7 195 151 174 -46 43 -3 40 123 309 95 42 418 -55 81 -109 208 125 175 155 161 145 -58 32. 38 -32 45 39 175 216 330 122 113 313 53 103 17 -16 -55 -28 '23. 17 -4 41 -33 10 19 4 -1 8 -20 -8 -24 160 137 124 132 -12 -9 52 -19 13 57 38 -8 • 32 -4 34 -6 -9 3 13 -23 -4 -4 -5 1 -6 -5 159 116 150 129 161 169 159 206 196 168 171 119 39 62 -44 13 -85 -13 -12 -32 -281 -85 -12 -9 —11 32 -148 -80 • -93 -48 30 -32 -156 -68 47 -16 6 -31 58 -20 -47 13 -rZ -12 S 33 31 -37 42 -12 -12 43 41 -21 63 -59 42 6 14 -25 13 -10 6 217 161 32 192 163 -283 65 218 120 = 202 -54 80 197 -187 -27 340 -11 167 319 -132 176 178 118 223 233 -68 50 320 154 LA 5 221 21 105 278 56 39 -9J 86 112 =34 -96 92 -122 57 117 -1 -37 118 -43 97 118 -45 -87 ! 115 Uses of funds represent net changes in assets and therefore reflect net, rather ' includes Canadian government and political subdivisions, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, nonguaranteed Federal agency and other bonds as well ae corporate bonds and stocks. ' Adjusted to eliminate the effect of a consolidation of a large savings bank with a commercial bank. • ' lUrce.—Nat. Assoc. of Mutual Savings Banks and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. January 16, 1961 -20-» Part II - Canada Canadian interest rates eased during the week with an active demand for securities resulting from the high post-Christmas liquidity. The Bank of Canada was a modest seller of securities but the chartered banks added to their bill holdings. The money supply has increased in December and January. The Canadian dollar leveled off last week at about 100.5 (tJ.S. cents) last week with little activity reported in the market. Industrial stock prices rose further through the week. - Money market. The average yield on the 3-month Treasury bill at last Thursday's auction declined by 16 basis points from 3«3U per cqnt on January 5 to 3.18 per cent on January 12. The yield on the 6-month bill also declined during the week from 3.63 per cent on January 5 to 3»U8 per cent on January 12. The Bank of Canada sold $9 million of Treasury bills during the week, and the general public sold $2li million, while the chartered banks purchased $39 million (see Table). The average yield on day-to-day loans during the week ending January 11 was 2.80 per cent, no change from the previous week. There was a narrowing of the spread favoring the Canadian short Treasury bill from 1.07 per cent a week ago to 0.91 per cent last week as a result of the decline in the Canadian yields, However, there was little change in the net incentive on a covered basis (0.66 per cent per annum) because the decline in the discount on the forward Canadian dollar offset the decline in the Canadian yield (see Table). Bond market. Bond yields declined during the week for all maturities. The spread between selected comparable Canadian and United States securities (Thursday yields for bills and Wednesday yields for bonds) were as follows (figures in parenthesis refer to the previous week): 0.91 0.98 0.82 1.29 1.50 per per per per per cent cent cent cent cent on on on on on a 91-day bill (1,07) a 182-day bill(l.l5) an 80-year bond (0.99) a 30-year bond (1.37) a 35-year bond (1=59) The Bank of Canada sold $12 million of bonds and the general public sold $11 million, and the chartered banks sold $2 million; the Government accounts purchased $22 million and sold $6 million of bills (see Table). The press reported a heavy demand for the $10 million Hamilton issue offered as follows: $3.2 million, 5-3/U per cent, 1- to 7-year bonds; $1.7 million, 6 per cent 8-to-lO'sj and $5.2 million, 6 per cent, ll-to-20's, all at par. The offering price for the 6 per cent, $5 million, 20-year Newfoundland issue was 98-1/2 to yield 6.13 per cent. Saskatchewan is reportedly gathering views from investment men regarding the possibility of issuing $U-$5 million parity bonds. There was another increase in rates on Bank of Nova Scotia term notes which were introduced last September. The new rates, effective January 9» 196], are the highest since the notes were first issued in September i960 (see Table). Chartered bank loans and money supply. Chartered bank loans, unadjusted for seasonal factors, rose $2U million last week, contrary to normal seasonal expectations. The money supply also expanded controlseasonally, with an unadjusted increase of $U2 million. Foreign exchange. There was little change in the spot rate on the Canadian dollar through the week with only narrow fluctuation around 100.5 (U.S. cents). The forward discount on the Canadian dollar decreased somewhat from O.liU per cent per annum on January 5 to 0.25 per cent on January 12. 3 months Per cent Spot per annum forward January 5 6 9 10 11 12 100.L69 100.U69 100.500 100.5U7 100.750 100.625 100.359 100.391 100.138 100.500 100.688 100.563 -0.1tU -0*31 -0.25 -0.19 -O.25 -0.25 Stock, exchange. Prices of industrial stocks on the Canadian exchanges continued to rise through the week ending January 6. During the period from December 5 to January 6, the Toronto and Montreal indices showed a rise of from 6 to 6.5 per cent compared with a 5*5 per cent rise in the Standard and Poor industrial average for New York. The following table ,compares the three industrial indices: New York Toronto Montreal Standard & High Low Dec. 5 12 19 27 30 Jan. 3 a 5 6 532.58 172.38 U99.31 507.38 511.UU 518.31 52U.91 52a.l3 527.81 528.56 529.69 320 250.3 26a.a 267 .a 268.5 2?a.6 276.7 276.1 280.2 281.3 282.0 65.00 55.98 58,58 60.3a 60.62 60.97 6l.a9 60.87 61.77 62.00 61.86 The total value of stock shares sold on all Canadian exchanges during the week ending January 6 was $9,855 million, somewhat higher than recent weeks. British Commonwealth Section Division of International Finance Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Selected Canadian Money Market and Related Data Canadian don*? , 3-mo. discount (-1 forward premium (+)f*/ 3-iao. Treaa. bills Spread over U.S. 1959 - High Low i960 - High Low 6.16 3-25 ' 5oiU I068 k.63 2.10 2.96 0.30 1.62 -0.82 105:51 102.58 105.27 100.33 Dec. 22 29 Jan. 5 12 3»U6 3.25 3»3U . 3.18 2.22 2.17 2.27 2.27 1.2U 1.08 1.07 0.91 101.28 100.33 100.U7 100.63 .- UoU9 2.80 — 101.03 100.22 100.36 100.56 Net incentive to hold Can. bill*/ 0.99 -0.91 1.99 -0.57 -0.91 -0.U3 0.33 0.65 O.63 0.66 -o.UU -0.25 a/ Average yield at weekly tender on Thursday. 2/ Composite market yield for the U.S. Treasury bill on Thursday close of business# c/ In U.S. cents. 3 / Spread between spot rate and 3-month forward Canadian dollar on Thursday closing, expressed as per cent per annum. e/ Spread over U.S. Treasury bill (column 3)% plus 3-month forward discount or premium (column 6). Selected Government of Canada Security Yields 6-mo. Treaa.bills Spread Canada u?s!l/ 1959 - High Low 1960 r High Low Dec. 22 29 Jan. 5 12 6.2k 5 oil 5.33 1.99 3.68 3.5U 3.63 3oU8 Intermediate bonds (8 yr.) Spread OirnyU Long-term bonds (26 Tear) 135 year) spread Spread Cw^da Canyla A 5.27 1-37 U.5o 5.55 1.11 -0.86 U.09 0.21 1.26 U.69 U.7U U.70 U.68 0.92 1.00 0.99 1.17 '1.15 0.98 0.82 . 5.30 U.UU Mk w 5.12 U.63 1.36 0.85 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.17 1.37 1.37 1.29 1.36 5.05 U.73 5.28 U.68 5.23 5.23 5.23 •5.20 a/ Average yield at weekly tender on Thursday. V Spread between Canadian auction rate and composite market yield of U.S. bill on close of business Thursday. 0/ Government of Canada 2-3A per cent of June 1967-68. Z/ Spread ov$r U.S. Government 2-1/2 per cent of 1963-68. e/ Government of Canada 3 - l A per cent of October .1979• l/ Spread over U.S. Government 3-1/U per cent of 1978-83. "' Government of Canada 3-3A per cent of Septentoer 1996 - March 1998. # 1' Spread over U.S. Government of 1995# 1.61 0.95 1.56 1.57 1.59 1.50 Canada: Changes in Distribution of Holdings of Canadian Government Direct and Guaranteed Securities (millions of Canadian dollars, par value) Bank of Canada Treas. Hill Bonds fov. 10 17 2h )ec. 1 8 15 22 29 Tan. 5 12 krarcei - 1 + 3 + 1 + 10 • 9 - 2 5 - 3 + 2 - 9 Government Total + 2 - 1 + 8 + 2k - U - 6 -103 + 2 - 11 + 16 - 1 + 10 - 3 + 3 - 3 + 1 - 9 0 - 2 - 12 Chartered banks TrOBS# Bonds bills + + + + + 6 28 30 21 7 13 18 6 18 39 + + + + - General public Savings Treas. Bonds bonds bills 7 6 3 8 28 5 23 lU 12. 2 +199 +131 +271 4 U - U - 13 - 11 - 8 - U + 16 + + + + + - - IS - ?u Bank of Canada, Weekly financial Statistics* Yields on Bank of Nova Scotia Term Notes (per cent per annum) 1 year 2 year 3 year U year 5-6 years Source: Sept. Oct. Nov. 3.75 U.oo U.25 U.75 5.oo 3.25 3.75 U.oo U.50 U.75 3.50 U.OO U.25 U.50 U.75 The Financial Post. Jan. (1961) U-iA U-l/2 U-3/U 5 5 6 26 29 3 1 19 11 + + + - 7 17 5 27 31 U 62 2k 10 11 January 16, 1961. ^-Appendix 1 United Kingdom: Money and Capital Markets during December Despite two cuts in Bank rate in the past three months and continuing declines in the Treasury bill rates, yields on long-term British government securities rose further in December. In early January Consols showed their highest yields in at least 100 years. The contrast between movements in bill and bond yields since early October is summarized in the following security yields (in per cent per annum)s Treasury bills I960 Jan. 1 3.73 Bonds$ 1966 (5-1/2%) 1975 (350 2.00 5.30 2012 (5-1/2%) Undated* War loan (3-1/2%) Consols (2-1/2$) Oct. 7 5,56 6.00 5.98 Dec. 30 ho35 5.51 6.11 5.91 5.39 5.0U 5.83 5.56 5.9U So 70 jrmrru-i/2%) The substantial rise in bond yields in the course of I960 can also be seen in the figures. During December, the British bill remained about 2 per cent above the New York bill. With the exchange risk covered, the London bill showed a 1 to 1-l/U per cent higher return to the investor. Two pieces of evidence suggest that, at least on a net basis, the capital inflow may have come to a hplt in December. First, Britain's reserves adjusted for special private and governmental debt transactions showed a deficit of $62 million in December, the first such deficit in nearly a year. Secondly, security sterling which had risen sharply in the fall as foreign residents bought British bonds fell by more than two cents in December„ Press reports suggest that substantial foreign purchases of bonds occurred during the " autumn months; perhaps in anticipation of a general decline in bond yields in Britain. Sales by foreign holders have contributed to recent price declines in the gilt-edged market. Growing pressure on credit availabilities is suggested in the decline in London clearing bank loans between mid-November and mid-December. The London clearing banks are now entering the tax-gathering quarter (when there are seasonal drains on their liquid assets) with a liquid-apset ratio well below the usual December level. A number of newspaper reports have discussed, among other alternatives, whether the banks will bf forced to sell more gilt-edged securities and whether the authorities will make releases from Special Deposit balances. A further slight fall occurred in instalment credit during the month. Renewed activity in the bullion market pushed up gold prices during December and early January. The spot sterling rate declined in December but strengthened in early January. The trade returns for November continued to be unfavorable. Money market conditions. After declining through the first half of December, money market rates held steady in late December and early January. The yield on Treasury bills declined from U.63 per cent on December 2 to U.35 per cent on December 23 and subsequently remained at that level through January 6 (see Table). The yield on British Treasury bills exceeded the U.S. Treasury bill yield by between 2 and 2-l/U per cent through late December and early January. The incentive to hold the London bill rather than the U.S. bill (with exchange risk covered) remained between 1 and 1-l/U per cent throughout the period (see Table), Gild-edged market. Sluggish conditions in the gilt-edged market brought further increases in yields on British Government securities; longterm yields reached their highest levels in at least 100 y e a r s . O n January 12 the yield on 2-1/2 per cent Consols went abovtt the 1921 all-time high, as may be seen in the following price and yield figures: Price 1921 1956 (Dec. 1) 1957 (Sept. 20) I960 Dec. 1 23 1961 Jan. 5 6 12 L3-5/8 50-lA U5 U5-1/U hh 13-15/16 13-11/16 U3-9/16 Yield 5-73 U.98 5.56 5.52 5.68 5.69 5.72 5.7U Yields on Government securities in all maturities reached highs for the year in the closing days of I960 and have continued to rise in early January New capital issues on the London market (excluding Treasury operations) during the first eleven months of i960 totaled £529.9 million compared with sWiO.L million in 1959, according to the estimates of the Midland Bank. Total new issues were broken down as follows (in millions of pounds): Borrowers 1957 1958 1959 i960 United Kingdom Overseas 268.2 U5.U 2U7.9 59.9 107.6 190.3 39.6 Total 313.6 307.8 UUo.U 529.9 The Government of Northern Ireland has issued a £7 million Exchequer Stock, 1977, at 6 per cent and priced at 99. This stock is offered as conversion to holders of the £7 million Northern Ireland 3 per cent Loans Stock, 1956-61. ^ Trade balance. Trade returns for November showed no improvement. Seasonally-adjusted figures were (in millions of pounds): Trade Exports Imports balance I9605 January May September October*/ November—/ 308 298 205 • 252 3Ul 368 389 386 385 lill - U8 - 80 - 77 &122 - 70 a/ Affected by tally clerks1 strike. These two months shdulfi probably be considered together. However, the Board of Trade's detailed analysis suggests that imports may have finally reached their peak. The trade deficit combined with reduced "invisibles" earnings produced a £101 million current account deficit in the third quarter of i 9 6 0 compared with a surplus of £ U 3 million a year ago. Bullion market. After declining to $35.Ul per fine ounce on December 2, the price of gold on the London market rose steadily through December and early January reaching $35.77 per fine ounce on January 13. Political events in Europe contributed to the demand for gold. Sterling fixing price December 2 9 16 23 30 January 6 13 — 2 5 2 / 252/9 253/253/6 25k/25U/3 25U/10 Spot sterling Dollar fixing price Trading range 281.05 280.93 280.78 280.62 28d.35 35.1123 35.5025 35.5186 35.5685 35.6OU1i 35.U00-35.U50 35.560-35.600 35.510-35.530 35.550-35.580 35.510-35.620 280.68 280.73 35.681k 35.7696 35.68o-35.68U 35.730-35.770 Commercial bank loans. Loans of the London clearing banks declined by £9.2 million in the month to mid-December} except for August i 9 6 0 , bank loans have not declined since the 1956-1958 credit squeeze was relaxed. The liquidity ratio was at 31»9 per cent compared to 3U.2 per cent in midDecember 1959. Between August and November i 9 6 0 , loans by members of the British Bankers' Association rose by Z$h million to £3*570 million» Excluding loans to the nationalized industries, the rise was only £38 million, the smallest increase in any quarter for nearly three years. Instalment credit. The total hire-purchase debt declined by £3 million in November, compared with falls of £7 million and £8 million, respectively, in October and September. Between March 195>8 and May I960, when instalment credit restrictions were reimposed, there was an average monthly increase of £20 million. The whole of the drop in November was in the debt owed directly to finance houses, mainly for vehicles, which now stands at £620 million. The debt owed directly to household goods shops was unchanged at £322 million. Foreign exchange. Spot sterling declined steadily through December from 281.22 U.S7 cents to 280.3U U.S. cents; it regained strength in early January and closed at 280.73 U.S. cents on January 13 (see Table). The discount on 3-month forward sterling was unchanged in December (see Table). Security sterling fell from a small premium about spot sterling of 281-1/8 U.S. cents in early December to a substantial discount of 278-3/8 U.S. cents in early January. The sterling area's reserves of gold and foreign exchange rose in December by £23 million to £1,15U million. If the special capital movements connected with the inflow of £131 million from the Ford Motor Company for the purchase of the minority shareholding in Fords (U.K.), the outflow of £67 million to the U.S. and Canadian Governments in respect of loan service and the outflow of £17 million to the International Monetary Fund for the purchase of sterling are excluded, the reserves declined by £22 million. This is the first such fall in reserves since January. Stock market. On December 9, stock prices reached a I960 low of 295 after a 9-week decline of about 12 per cent. Prices moved up thereafter. The price index closed the year at 305 compared with 338 on January 1, I960. British Commonwealth Section Division of International Finance Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System United Kingdoms Date Treasury Bill Yields and Exchange Rates 3-nOo Treasury bill Discount , , , Differon 3-moe U.K.*/ U . S ^ / ence sterling^/ 1959 - High Low 1960 - High Low 3,6 3»0 So68 2.13 k.7 2.6 k.59 2.0$ -1.1 0o4 3-63 -0.8k Nov. 11 18 25 Dec. 2 9 16 23 30 Jan. 6 k.77 1.67 U.6U U.63 k.k8 U.38 1.35 U.35 k.3k 2.U5 2.32 2.37 2.30 2.39 2.25 2.30 . 2.33 2.26 2.22 2.2k 2.1k 2.18 " 2.17 2.20 2.15 2.28 2.06 Net incentive to hold . U.K. bill*/ Exchange rate Spot Discount sterling on 3-mo. «/ sterling*/ — =(P) .61 2.33 --1.95 - .23 -= 281.58 279.83 1.6k (P).k7 1.62 l.kl 1.15 1.02 0.97 1.01 0.96 0.90 1.03 0.70 0.89 1.10 1.31 1.05 1.13 1.21 1.25 1.03 281.58 281.29 281.26 281.12 280.86 280.71 280.57 280.3k 280.72 1.1k 0.99 0.81 0.72 0.68 0.71 0.67 0.63 0.72 ! mj Average yield at Friday weekly tender. %f Closing market yield for Friday in New York. c/ Spread between spot and forward rate in per cent per annum. a/ #et of difference in bill yield less discount on 3-month sterling. e/ Spot rate in New York market in U.S. cents. ~tj Spread between spot and forward rates in U.S. cents. United Kingdoms Selected Capital Market Yields 6-year bond*/ l5-year bonc^/ War , loan®/ I960 - High / Low - 6.11 k.93 6.00 5.33 5.9k 5.33 5.70 5.03 k.96 3.7k l.k9 0.63 338.6 29k. 6 Nov. 11 18 25 Dec. 2 5.98 5.97 6.00 6.05 6.05 6.08 6.08 6.11 6.11 5.82 5.82 5.83 5.83 5.86 5.88 5.90 5.91 5.97 5.73 5.67 5.7k 5.80 5.88 5.90 5.93 5.9k 5.95 5.kk .5.39 5.k6 5.52 5.59 5.66 5.68 5.70 5.70 k.52 k.k9 k.66 k.71 k.96 k.90 k.82 k.82 k.73 0.92 0.90 0.80 0.81 0.63 0.76 0.66 0.88 0.97 313.3 315.9 308.7 301.8 29k.6 299.6 305.3 30k .7 310.6 L 23 30 a/ 5/ t/ d/ e/ T/ %/ Consols Share yields/ Share pricesg/ 5-1/2 per cent Exchequer9 1966. 3 per cent Savings Bond 1965-75= 3-1/2 per cent War Loan (undated). 2-1/2 per cent Consol (undated) Financial Times. uurerence between yield on 2-1/2 per cent Consols and share yield. Financial Times. UNITED KINGDOM WEEKLY SPOT AND FORWARD STERLING RATES J MONTHS fOIWAlD Million! MONTHLY TRADE BALANCE SEASONAUY ADJUSTED CHANGE ON OFFICIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES ADJUSTED CHANGE «d. L M I „.dd R N L O J L ACTIIAL (MANGE T il ri fl. Il h l i L ^ of t