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Capital Market Developments Research January 15, 1979 Prepared by the C A P I T A L MARKETS SECTION in conjunction with the MORTGAGE and CONSUMER FINANCE SECTION DIVISION OF RESEARCH AND STATISTICS BOARD OF GOVERNORS F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM Washington, D C. 20551 Index S U B S C R I P T I O N RATES: Weekly $ 1 5 . 0 0 per year or $.40 each in the United States, its possessions, Canada, and Mexico; 10 or more of the same issue t o one address, $13.50 per TABLES 1 - 6 SECURITY VOLUME AND YIELDS 7, 8 STOCK MARKET AND SECURITY CREDIT 9-16 MORTGAGE MARKET year or $.35 each. Elsewhere, $20.00 per year or $.50 each. Address requests to Publications Services, Division of A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Services, and make payment remittance payable to the order of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in a f o r m collectible at par in U.S. Currency. SYMBOLS e ESTIMATE P PRELIMINARY r REVISED n.a. NOT A V A I L A B L E DATA DO NOT EXIST Table 1 YIELDS, VOLUME AND RECEPTION CORPORATE B O N D M A R K E T VOLUME YIELDS WEEK ENDING N E W ISSUE 1 A a a UTILITY RECENTLY OFFERED A a a UTILITY 2 3 GROSS OFFERINGS ($ MILLIONS) PER C E N T S O L D B Y END OF WEEK NEW ISSUES 4 IN SYNDICATE ($ MILLIONS) 1978 - Nov. 3 10 17 24 9.25 9.30 9.25 9.28 9.30 9.24 9.25 272 400 439 260 99 100 98 72 3 0 10 73 Dec. 1 8 15 22 29 9.27 9.28 9.29 9.28 9.31 9.35 9.54 9.51 388 455 560 5 0 92 86 75 100 30 64 140 0 10 0 100 1979 - J a n . 5 12 — — 9.51 9.55p — — - : - 0 0 MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET VOLUME YIELDS WEEK ENDING MOODY'S N E W ISSUE Aaa BOND BUYER 2D-BOND INDEX GROSS OFFERINGS ($ MILLIONS) 3 PER C E N T S O L D B Y END OF WEEK 1978 - Nov. 3 10 17 24 5.70 5.65 5.50 5.55 6.22 6.17 6.11 6.16 421 845 1,557 217 89 90 95 86 Dec. 1 8 15 22 29 5.55 5.70 5.85 6.05 6.05 6.29 6.29 6.45 6.67 6.61 753 1,103 1,339 470 14 81 88 83 89 90 1979 - J a n . 5 12 6.05 6.00 6.58 6.50 137 960 78 89 NEW ISSUES 4 IN S Y N D I C A T E ($ MILLIONS) 78 107 101 121 ' 169 239 340 209 174 78 151 NOTES: 1 Federal Reserve series of implied yield on newly issued, Aaa-rated utility bond with 5-year call protection. 2 Federal Reserve series of implied free-market yield on competitively bid Aaa-rated utility bond with 5-year call protection, released from price restrictions sometime during the last four weeks. 3 Estimated by F.R. on the basis of available data. 4 Corporate Market: Salomon Brothers Bond Market Roundup; Municipal Market: Weekly Bond Buyer. Data are adjusted by Federal Reserve when necessary to make coverage of this series consistent with the gross offerings series. Table 2 HIGH GRADE BOND YIELDS NEW ISSUE Aaa UTILITY DATE 1974 - High Low 1975 - High Low 1976 - High Low 1977 - High Low 1978 - High Low 1978 - October November December 1978 - Dec. 1 8 15 22 29 1979 - Jaii. 1 RECENTLY OFFERED Aaa UTILITY 2 MOODY'S SEASONED CORPORATE Aaa 3 U.S. GOVT. 20-YEAR CONSTANT MATURITY 4 BOND BUYER 2C-BOND INDEX 10.61 (10/4) 8.05 (2/15) 10.52 (10/11) 8.13 (1/4) 9.39 (10/11) 7.73 ( V 4 ) 8.68 (8/30) 7.39 ( 1 / 4 ) 7.15 (12/12) 5.15 ( 2 / 7 ) 9.80 (5/2) 8.89 (2/7) 9 . 7 1 (5/25) 9.06 (2/28) 9 . 0 1 (5/2) 8.57 (2/28) 8 . 6 3 (9/19) 7.63 (2/21) 7.67 ( 1 0 / 3 ) 6.27 ( 2 / 1 3 ) 8.95 (5/28) 7 . 9 3 (12/10) 9.10 (1/2) 7.84 (12/31) 8.66 (5/28) 7 . 9 1 (12/31) 8.17 ( 5 / 2 8 ) 7.27 (12/31) 7.29 ( 1 / 2 ) 5.95 (12/16) 8.36 (12/16) 7.90 ( 1 / 7 ) 8 . 4 8 (12/30) 7.95 ( 1 / 7 ) 8 . 2 8 (12/30) 7.88 (1/7) 7.99 (12/30) 7.26 ( 1 / 7 ) 9 . 2 9 (12/15) 8.60 (3/24) 9.54 (12/22) 8.48 (1/6) 9.27 (12/29) 8.30 (1/6) 9 . 0 0 (12/22) 8.02 (1/6) 6.67 (12/22) 5.58 ( 3 / 1 7 ) 9.17 9.27 9.28 9.13 9.27 9.41 8.89 9.03 9.16 8.69 8.75 8.90 6.13 6.19 6.51 9.27 9.28 9.29 9.28 9.31 9.35 9.54 9.51 9.04 9.06 9.12 9.24 9.27 8.78 8.79 8.84 9.00 8.99 6.29 6.29 6.45 6.67 6.61 9.51 9.55p 9.26r 9.26p 8.99r 9. OOp 6.58 6.50 5 12 — ; 5.93 ( 2 / 4 ) 5.45 (11/17) NOTES: 1 Federal Fwserve series of implied yield on newly issued, Aaa-rated utility bond with 5-year call protection. 2 Federal Reserve series of implied free-market yield on competitively bid Aaa-rated utility bond with 5-year call protection released from price restrictions sometime during the last 4 weeks. 3 Weekly average of daily closing figures. 4 Weekly average of daily figures. U.S. Treasury data. Thursday figures. The average rating of the 20 bonds used in this index falls midway between the four top groups as classified by Moody's Investors Service. Weekly Bond Buyer data. 5 5 Table 3 LONG-TERM CORPORATE AND STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SECURITY OFFERINGS AND PLACEMENTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS GROSS PROCEEDS 1 CORPORATE PERIOD 2 STATE AND LOCAL 1978 1977 1976 1978 1977 1976 January February March 3,013 2,657 4,442 4,362 2,792 5,578 3,381 3,863 6,632 3,305 2,751 4,829 3,402 3,442 4,063 2,451 2,885 3,365 April May June 3,285 4,035 5,215 3,998 3,797 5,660 3,507 4,186 6,439 3,824 5,497 4,355 3,409 4,566 5,786 2,218 3,575 3,115 July August September 4,226 3,311 3,500e 4,289 3,469 4,177 3,216 3,357 4,817 3,909 6,388 2,289 3,113 4,118 4,013 2,734 2,821 2,814 October November December 3,750e 3,200e 4,150e 4,221 5,331 6,531 4,511 3,074 6,503 3,125 4,075 3,600e 3,807 3,332 3,646 3,524 3,336 2,342 01 02 03 04 10,112 12,535 11,037e ll,100e 12,732 13,455 11,935 16,083 13,876 14,132 11,390 14,088 10,885 13,676 12,586 10,800e 10,907 13,761 11,244 10,785 8,701 8,908 8,369 9,202 1st Half 3 Qtrs. Year 22,647 33,684e 44,784e 26,187 38,122 54,205 28,008 39,398 53,488 24,561 37,147 47,947e 24,668 35,912 46,697 17,609 25,978 35,180 / NOTES: 1 Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of gross proceeds. 2 Securities Industry Association estimates of principal amounts. Table 4 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES BY TYPE OF ISSUE AND ISSUER IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS PERIOD TOTAL PUBLICLY OFFERED 1977 - I II III IV 12,732 13,455 11,935 16,083 6,498 5,606 6.215 5,867 1978 - I 10,112 12,535 5,660 4,289 3,469 II June July August September October November December 1978 - J a n u a r y February March April May June July August GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYRE OF ISSUER COMMON MEMO AND MANUFACPUBLIC PRIVATELY COMMUNIISSUES INCLUDED OTHER TURING PLACED PREFERRED UTILITY CATIONS ISSUERS STOCK FOREIGN CONVERTIBLE BONDS 4,221 5,331 6,531 3,013 2,657 4,442 3,285 5.215 4,226 3,527 4,975 3,506 5,999 2,707 2,874 2,214 4,217 4,748 3,383 4,196 2,045 2,360 1,947 1,908 2,114 2,580 1,902 1,718 1,719 1,744 2,066 2 , 1 7 7 1 , 5 4 1 3,047 4,125 2,901 4,246 1,415 1,059 644 1,320 5,238 4,830 5,140 6,460 1,981 2,918 2,218 2,898 2,367 844 4,684 1,035 1,416 1,349 1,068 1,128 1,920 1,169 2,541 1,080 1,229 1,039 1,405 1,032 NOTES: 1 Othw issuers are extractive, railroad and other transportation, real estate and finance, and commercial and other. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 6 108 495 39 3,031 3,440 3,250 4,054 1,569 1,200 3,820 1,497 268 346 272 275 1,244 2,356 1,761 1,858 1,521 2,045 1,805 2,610 1,578 1,441 1,665 1,960 1,470 2,151 2,231 1,162 Table 5A INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM PUBLIC SECURITY OFFERINGS OTHER THAN U.S. TREASURY ' January 2, TYPE ISSUER 1979 through January 12, AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1979 MATURITY COUPON RATE OFFERING YIELD MOODY'S/S&P'S RATINGS 9.85 10.20 9.63 9.88 Aaa/AAA CORPORATE L o u i s v i l l e Gas & E l e c t r i c M i d d l e South U t i l s . Co. OTHER E x p o r t Development Corp. New B r u n s w i c k , P r o v i n c e o f I n t e r - A m e r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t Bank Norway, Kingdom of Com. Com. Notes Debt. Debt. Notes stk. stk. 21.0 130.1 150.0 75.0 100.0 150.0 - - 1984 2004 2004 1984 NOTES: * Rights offering. 1 Includes only corporate and other security offerings of $ 1 5 million and over; excludes options, exchanges, and secondary offerings. — 9.85 10.13 9.63 9.75 A-1/A+ Aaa/AAA Aaa/AAA 00 Table 5B INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM PUBLIC SECURITY OFFERINGS OTHER THAN U.S. TREASURY 1 January 2 through January 12, 1979 ISSUER TYPE STATE AND LOCAL Georgia Mun. E l e c t r i c Auth. Georgia Mun. E l e c t r i c Auth. Georgia Mun. E l e c t r i c Auth. Michigan S t a t e Hsg. Dev. Auth. S i k e s t o n , Mo. S i k e s t o n , Mo. S i k e s t o n , Mo. Rhode I s l a n d Hsg. & Mtge. F i n . Corp. Rhode I s l a n d Hsg. & Mtge. F i n . Corp. Rhode I s l a n d Hsg. & Mtge. F i n . Corp. San Antonio, Texas New York S t a t e Dorm. Auth. New York S t a t e Dorm. Auth. Oregon, S t a t e of Wisconsin, S t a t e of Anne Arundel Co., Md. A t l a n t a , Ga. McMinn Co., Tenn. D e c a t u r , 111. D e c a t u r , 111. M a t a n u s k a - S i s i t n a Boro., Alaska Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. G.O. Rev. Rev. G.O. AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 20.4 14.8 64.8 17.0 40.2 21.2 88.6 46.6 23.2 10.1 75.0 8.4 39.9 150.0 84.8 25.0 31.0 10.0 6.0 9.0 20.9 NOTES: 1 Includes only state and local security offerings of $10 million and over; excludes secondary offerings. 2 For State and local government securities, G O. denotes general obligation; Rev. denotes revenue obligations. MATURITY 1981-1998 2003 2015 1980-1994 1983-1995 1999 2009 1980-1996 2010 2011 1980-2003 1980-1991 2009 1989-1998 1980-2004 1980-2009 2004-2008 1980-1998 1980-2000 2010 1982-1999 NET INTEREST COST — — — — 7.43 7.43 7.43 —— 6.15 5.91 5.68 5.72 6.66 6.36 ~ 6.55 OFFERING YIELD 5.50-6.70 6.88 7.08 6.20-7.00 6.10-7.10 7.25 7.40 5.90-6.85 7.20 7.33 5.40-6.40 6.25-7.50 8.09 5.50-6.00 5.30-6.10 5.35-6.35 6.50-6.75 5.50-6.30 5.70-7.30 7.50 5.85-6.90 MOODY'S/S&P'S RATINGS A/A+ A/A+ A/A+ A-l/A A/BBB+ A/BBB+ A/BBB+ Aa/AAAa/AAAa/AAAa/AA Baa/A Baa/A Aaa/AA+ Aaa/AAA Aa/AA A-l/AA Baa-l/AAA —/AA —/AA A/BBB+ Table 6A FORTHCOMING INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM PUBLIC SECURITY OFFERINGS OTHER THAN U.S. TREASURY As of January 12, 1979 ISSUER TYPE 1 AMOUNT (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING CORPORATE B e l l T e l e . Co. of Penna. Gulf S t a t e s U t i l s . Iowa Power & Light Co. Montana Power Co. Indiana & Michigan E l e c t . Co. Texas U t i l s . Co. El Paso Elec. Co. * S t . Louis Southwestern Ry. Co. Arkansas Power & Light Co. A t l a n t i c City E l e c . Co. Arkansas Power & L i g h t Co. *United Technologies Corp. *United Technologies Corp. Cris-Craft I n d u s t r i e s Inc. Aristar Inc. Texas Power & Light Co. Texas Power & Light Co. P a c i f i c T e l . & T e l e . Co. Ohio Edison Co. *Texas E l e c t r i c S e r v i c e Co. ^Georgia Power Co. ^Georgia Power Co. *Louisiana Power & Light Co. *South C e n t r a l B e l l T e l . Co. * P a c i f i c Northwest B e l l Debt. Pfd. stk. 1 s t mtg. 1 s t mtg. 1st mtg. Com. s t k . Com. s t k . Equip, t r . 1st mtg. Com. s t k . Pfd. stk. Debt. Notes Debt. Notes 1st mtg. Pfd. stk. Debt. Com. s t k . 1st mtg. 1st mtg. Pfd. stk. Pfd. s t k . Debt. Com. s t k . ( r t s ) 150.0 35.0 30.0 50.0 90.0 90.0 15.0 21.6 60.0 25.0 60.0 200.0 100.0 20.0 25.0 100.0 30.0 300.0 108.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 35.0 250.0 17.5 NOTES: * Included in table for first time. 1 Includes only corporate and other security issues of $15 million and over; excludes exchanges, options Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. 16 16 17 18 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 6 6 7 14 21 21 21 22 27 10 Table 6B FORTHCOMING INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM PUBLIC SECURITY OFFERINGS OTHER THAN U.S. TREASURY 1 As of January 12, 1979 ISSUER TYPE New Mexico Mtge. F i n . Auth. *San Diego, C a l i f . Dade Co., F l a . ^ V i r g i n i a Housing Dev. Auth. Conroe Ind. Sch. D i s t . , Tex. ^Minnesota Hsg. Finance Agy. *Utah Housing Finance Agy. Redwood C i t y , C a l i f . *Washoe Co. Sch. D i s t . , Nev. D a l l a s Co., Texas *0lathe U n i f i e d S.D. #No. 233, KS. •^Suffolk County, N.Y. *North Texas Water D i s t . , Texas C a l i f . Hsg. Finance Agy. *Louisiana, S t a t e of ^ P h i l a d e l p h i a , Pa. F l o r i d a , S t a t e of C h a r l o t t e , N.C. *South S t . P a u l , Minn. *Nez Perce Co., Idaho *Texas, S t a t e of *Arlington Indep. Sch. D i s t . , Texas *Redwood C i t y Gen. Imp. D i s t . , Cal. Iowa Housing Finance Auth. Rev. G.O. Rev. Rev. G.O. Rev. Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. Rev. Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. AMOUNT (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING STATE & LOCAL 75.0 15.0 70.0 100.0 15.6 34.8 56.9 12.5 12.0 55.0 15.5 59.0 16.4 100.0 91.8 60.0 117.5 10.6 10.0 70.0 35.0 16.0 11.8 100.0 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. NOTES: 1 Includes state and local government issues of $10 million and over, foreign government, International Bank for Reconstruction issues of Federally sponsored agencies; excludes secondary offerings. * Included in the table for the first time. 15 16 16 16 16 17 18 19 23 23 24 25 25 25 30 30 30 30 1 5 15 27 Table 7 STOCK PRICES AND VOLUME NYSE INDEX 1974-High Low 1975-High Low 1976-High Low 1977-High Low 1978-High Low 1 STOCK PRICES DATE 3 BJ INDUSTRIALS AMEX 4 NASDAQ 2 TRADING VOLUME NYSE AMEX NASDAQ 53.37 ( 3 / 1 3 ) 32.89 ( 1 0 / 3 ) 891. 66 (3/13) 577. 60 (12/6) 102.01 (3/14) 58.26 (12/9) 96.53 (3/15) 54.87 (10/3) 24.9 (1/3) 7.5 ( 7 / 5 ) 4.4 (1/3) .9 (9/26) 7.5 (1/3) 2.8 (7/5) 51.24 ( 7 / 1 5 ) 37.16 ( 1 / 8 ) 881. 81 (7/15) 632. 04 ( 1 / 2 ) 96.86 ( 7 / 1 5 ) 62.20 ( 1 / 2 ) 88.00 (7/15) 60.70 ( 1 / 2 ) 35.2 ( 2 / 1 3 ) 8.7 (9/15) 4 . 2 (2/21) 1.1 (9/15) 8 . 1 (2/13) 2.5 (9/15) 57.51 ( 9 / 2 1 ) 48.04 (1/2) 1014. 79 (9/21) 858. 71 (1/2) 107.05 (7/12) 84.31 (1/2) 92.52 (7/15) 78.06 ( 1 / 2 ) 4 4 . 5 (2/20) 10.3 ( 1 / 2 ) 8 . 6 (2/20) 1.1 (1/2) 11.1 (2/20) 3.5 (1/2) 57.69 ( 1 / 2 ) 49.78 (11/2) 999. 75 ( 1 / 3 ) 800. 85 (11/2) 127.89 (12/30) 109.61 (1/12) 105.05 (12/30) 93.66 (4/5) 3 5 . 3 (11/11) 10.6 (10/10) 4.2 (1/13) 1 . 4 (9/22) 11.2 ( 1 1 / 1 0 ) 5.1 (5/27) 60.38 ( 9 / 1 2 ) 48.37 ( 3 / 6 ) 907. 74 ( 9 / 8 ) 742. 12 (2/28) 176.87 (9/15) 119.73 ( 1 / 1 1 ) 139.25 (9/13) 99.09 (1/11) 66.4 ( 8 / 3 ) 7.6 ( 1 / 2 0 ) 11.0 (10/30) 1 . 3 (1/20) 18.8 (5/18) 2.8 (1/20) 55.41 55.91 831. 69 836. 28 157.66 160.33 122.05 123.74 27.4 24.6 1979 Jan. 5 12 • NOTES: 1 Figures other than highs and lows are Fridays only. Highs and lows are for the year and are not necessarily for Fridays. 2 Volume figures are weekly averages of daily figures (millions of shares). 3 12/31/65 = 50 4 Based on average price change until September 4, 1973 thereafter, based on market value of shares listed. 3.5 2.9 10.1 10.5 12 Table 8 SECURITY CREDIT REGULATED MARGIN CREDIT EXTENDED BY END OF PERIOD OUTSTANDING 1977 - November December 1978 - J a n u a r y February March April May June July August September October November BROKERS ON MARGIN STOCK 9,610 9,740 9,590 9,780 9,920 10,260 10,660 11,090 11,190 11,740 12,400 12,090 11,000 CHANGE IN OUTSTANDING 1977 - November December 50 130 1978 - J a n u a r y FebruaryMarch April May Jur%e July j August ; -150 190 140 340 400 430 100 550 660 -310 -1,090 September October November 1 BROKERS O N CONVERTIBLE BONDS 3 2 BANKS 5/ UNREGULATED NONMARGIN STOCK CREDIT AT BANKS 246250 872 873 2,604 2,568 246 242 246 248 245 242 247 243 225 216 209 851 877 855 914 2,565 2,544 2,544 2,560 series 5/ n.a.— 4 -4 -4 4 2 • -3 -3 5 -4 —18 - -9 -7 discontinued -10 1 25 —36 -22 26 -22 -59? -3 -21 series ' 16 discontinued i- NOTES: 1 Margin account debt as reported by the New York Stock Exchange, excluding credit for subscription issues and convertible bonds. 2 New York Stock Exchange data. 3 June data for banks are universe totals; all other data for banks represent estimates for all commercial banks based on reports by a reporting sample, which accounted for 60 per cent of security credit outstanding at banks on June 30. 4 Nonmargin stocks are those not listed on a national securities exchange and not included on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's list of OTC margin stocks. At banks, loans to purchase or carry nonmargin stocks are unregulated; at brokers, such stocks have no value. 4 Table 9 SAVINGS FLOWS AT NONBANK THRIFT INSTITUTIONS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS REGULAR DEPOSITS DATE NET FLOW 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978-^ay June July August September October November^-' 1978-May June July August September October November^' 2,165 11,070 12,670 10,647 ANNUAL 3 GROWTH RATE 2.3 11.3 11.6 8.9 436 1,304 341 260 \ 3 NET NEW MONEY -2,822 4,757 5,275 2,874 97 -90 38 -75 -41 48 -125 & / 200 543 514 963 1,222 1,313 1,251 315 1 4.8 4.5 8.5 10.7 11.4 10.8 2.7 SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS SHARE CAPITAL NET FLOW 16,006 42,769 50,169 50,963 ANNUAL 3 GROWTH RATE 7.1 17.6 17.6 15.2 TOTAL DEPOSITS NET NEW MONEY 4,668 29,276 34,369 32,004 NET FLOW 18,171 53,839 62,839 61,610 NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2,380 2,145 6,656 1,744 3,074 2,812 2,312 2,069 6,433 1,606 2,645^/ 2,534 2,057 1,815 3,010 3,452 5,192 5,439 6,112 4,227 4,358 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 9.1 10.3 15.4 15.9 17.7 12.0 12.3 —— ANNUAL 3 GROWTH RATE 5.6 15.8 15.9 13.5 2,816 7,960 3,415 2,572 7,811 3,260 2,257 3,553 3,966 6,155 6,661 7,425 5,478 4,673 NET NEW MONEY 1,846 34,033 39,644 34,783 2,242 1,654 2,850 1,994 1,565 2,582 1,690 8.0 8.9 13.7 14.6 16.1 11.7 9.9 — — — — >•» —— —— NOTES: 1 Regular deposits at mutual savings banks exclude items such as Christmas club and certain escrow accounts, which represent a very small part of total deposits. 2 New deposits net of both withdrawals and interest. Data for S&L's are for insured associations only, which represent 96 per cent of industry total resources. 3 Annual growth rate for monthly data is the annualized monthly percentage increase in deposits. 4 Net f l o w s r e f l e c t t h e c o n v e r s i o n of an S&L to an MSB. A s s o c i a t i o n of Mutual S a v i n g s Bank and F e d e r a l Home Loan Bank Board. Digitized S ofor u rFRASER ce: N a t i o n a l f H.16 14 T a b l e 10 MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED THRIFT INSTITUTIONS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D OUTSTANDING C O M M I T M E N T S PERIOD ALL TOTAL SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS NET CHANGE MUTUAL SAVINGS ( N Y. BKS ALL i TOTAL STATE) SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS ( N Y. BKS STATE) 1 9 7 2 2 5 . 3 2 0 . 3 5 . 0 7 . 4 8 6 . 2 8 1 . 2 0 1 9 7 3 2 0 . 0 1 6 . 4 3 . 5 - 5 . 3 1 - 3 . 9 2 - 1 . 3 9 1 9 7 4 1 4 . 7 1 2 . 4 2 . 3 - 5 . 2 0 - 3 . 9 1 - 1 . 2 9 1 9 7 5 2 0 . 2 1 8 . 2 2 . 2 5 . 8 1 6 . 0 6 1 9 7 6 2 7 . 8 2 5 . 0 2 . 8 7 . 4 6 6 . 8 0 2 7 . 8 2 5 . 0 2 . 8 . 4 5 . 3 8 . 0 7 2 8 . 5 2 5 . 5 3 . 0 . 6 6 . 4 6 . 2 0 2 9 . 7 2 6 . 5 3 . 2 1 . 2 0 1 . 0 0 . 1 7 3 0 . 4 2 7 . 2 3 . 2 . 6 8 . 6 8 3 0 . 8 2 7 . 5 3 . 3 . 4 7 . 4 0 3 2 . 1 2 8 . 3 3 . 8 1 . 3 2 . 7 9 3 2 . 8 2 9 . 0 3 . 8 . 6 0 . 6 3 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. • Dec. - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. > Oct. Nov. - . 2 5 . 6 6 . 0 7 . 5 3 - . 0 3 3 4 . 0 3 0 . 1 3 . 9 1 . 2 9 1 . 1 1 3 5 . 0 3 0 . 9 4 . 1 . 9 7 . 8 0 . 1 7 3 7 . 2 3 2 . 7 4 . 5 2 . 2 3 1 . 8 6 . 3 7 3 8 . 2 3 3 . 5 4 . 7 1 . 0 5 . 8 2 3 8 . 3 3 3 . 7 4 . 6 . 0 6 . 1 6 . 1 8 . 2 3 — . 1 0 3 8 . 0 3 > 6 4 . 4 - . 3 2 - . 0 8 - . 2 4 3 7 . 3 3 3 . 0 4 . 3 - . 7 0 - . 6 1 - . 0 9 . 0 6 3 6 . 9 3 2 . 7 4 . 2 - . 4 0 - . 3 4 — 3 6 . 5 3 2 . 3 4 . 2 —. 4 6 - - 3 6 . 2 3 1 , 9 4 . 3 - . 3 4 3 6 . 1 3 1 . 5 4 . 6 . 0 2 3 6 . 0 3 1 . 5 4 . 5 - . 1 1 3 6 . 4 3 1 . 9 4 . 5 . 3 2 . 3 6 - . 0 4 3 6 . 7 3 2 . 3 4 . 4 - . 3 4 • 4 2 - . 0 8 - . 4 2 • 3 9 - . 3 2 - . 0 3 . 0 4 . 0 5 . 3 4 — . 0 8 3 8 . 8 3 3 . 9 4 . 9 2 . 1 2 1 . 6 3 . 4 9 3 9 . 0 3 3 . 9 5 . 1 . 1 4 - . 0 6 . 2 0 * SSL Data have been r e v i s e d by FHLBB back t o 1977. Based tin data from Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Savings Banks Association of New York State. Both series include a minor amount of nonresidential commitments; S&L commitments also include loans in process. Net changes are derived directly from unrounded end-of period outstanding levels as reported and after seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve. Subtotals may not add to totals because of rounding. H.16 Table 11 NET NEW MONEY B O R R O W I N G S BY MAJOR HOUSING A G E N C I E S IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS PERIOD 1975 - J u l y Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976 - J a n . Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1977 - J a n . Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1978 - J a n . Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.e/ Dec.- TOTAL INCLUDING SHORT-TERM DISCOUNT NOTES FNMA &FHLB SHORT-TERM DISCOUNT NOTES 1 TOTAL FHLB FHLMC FNMA +236 -398 215 587 152 669 +300 -700 100 850 200 600 0 -700 0 +150 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 +300 0 100 700 0 600 -64 302 115 -263 -48 69 -197 -964 -851 124 -953 -107 -58 787 195 -37 -552 145 0 -604 -304 693 -607 -206 291 +190 190 310 -297 -219 0 -1,100 0 0 -600 0 0 0 0 0 -300 0 0 196 -4 -7 -7 -6 -9 +190 -10 -8 -9 -7 0 300 -300 700 0 -200 300 0 200 318 12 -212 -197 -360 -547 -569 -346 99 -349 597 5 -347 -255 364 12 -862 289 344 532 605 531 347 195 247 466 1,078 188 -592 -354 746 297 203 553 301 -291 211 500 0 0 -200 0 -6 105 0 0 304 0 0 300 0 -189 -393 -4 0 200 3 -47 -3 9 11 200 0 -1 1 -350 752 -8 200 600 0 -300 200 0 0 -176 -270 643 -402 235 402 -22 46 486 -36 -34 1,078 399 1,712 887 848 3,091 1,492 1,605 1,811 1,683 1,680 1,323 2,200 -12 1,388 -17 600 1,483 1,276 1,881 1,182 1,131 1,630 1,100 2,000 0 1,400 0 0 1,500 0 700 1,200 0 0 900 600 -12 -12 -17 0 -17 276. -19 -18 181 -70 200 120 0 0 0 600 0 1000 1200 0 950 1700 0 1250 411 324 904 248 1,608 216 -276 629 552 50 223 200 NOTES: Based on data from Treasury Survey of Ownership. Sales of FHLB discount notes began in May 1974. INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM ISSUES 16 T a b l e 12 NET CHANGE IN MORTGAGE HOLDINGS IN M I L L I O N S O F D O L L A R S PERIOD 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 2 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TOTAL INCLUDING FNMA-GNMA TOTAL 21,930 41,406 57,587 58,372 42,739 43,497 62,783 96,814 17,020 39,018 55,561 55,072 36,517 38,658 64,903 95,924 COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,462 9,940 16,800 19,600 11,700 4,200 13,900 25,400 MSB's S & Us 1,946 3,938 5,377 5,642 2,172 2,236 4,074 6,474 10,254 23,919 31,932 25,552 17,567 29,289 44,515 58,566 INSURANCE F N M A - G N M A COMPANIES 2,348 1,221 1,452 4,278 5,078 2,933 2,414 5,184 4,910 2,388 2,026 3,300 6,222 4,839 -2,120 890 3,019 3,409 4,837 4,856 5,021 5,660 3,991 4,721 4,294 4,265 4,050 406 304 488 854 373 850 556 1,006 763 796 320 498 473 608 1,244 773 728 998 984 4,319 4,384 4,736 4,349 4,300 4,472 3,647 4,214 4,188 4,450 4,658 544 377 615 817 509 851 679 1,045 796 703 379 600 560 747 1,455 969 444 930 745 Not S e a s o n a l l y A d j u s t e d 1978 - J a n . Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 5,757 6,255 8,951 9,404 10,707 11,625 9,149 11,061 9,357 5,437 5,757 8,478 8,796 9,463 10,852 8,421 10,063 8,373 1,600 1,700 2,600 2,600 3,500 3,700 3,200 3,700 2,800 3,000 3,200 412 344 553 486 569 642 674 636 516 500 Seasonally Adjusted 1978 - J a n . Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 7,816 8,104 9,050 8,710 10,172 10,037 8,505 10,147 8,968 7,437 7,504 8,490 7,963 8,717 9,068 8,061 9,217 8,223 2,002 2,228 2,552 2,315 3,345 3,291 3,100 3,373 2,701 3,149 3,340 572 515 587 482 563 454 635 585 538 480 NOTES: 1 Monthly data for commercial banks based on Federal Reserve estimates benchmarked to Call Report data on real estate loans outstanding as available. Other data derived from mortgage debt outstanding as reported separately by National Assn. of Mutual Savings Banks, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance and, through August 1968, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and thereafter by FNMA and the Government National Mortgage Association. Data for mutual savings banks and for Life Insurance companies may differ somewhat from those derived from regular quarterly series because of minor conceptual differences for which adjustments are not made in the monthly series. Altogether, these groups accounted for 83 per cent of the net increase estimated for all holders in 1974. 2 Beginning January 1972 data reflect activity in limited amount of conventional mortgages. T a b l e 13 NET INCREASE IN MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING 1 IN B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS, S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D A N N U A L R A T E S 2 RESIDENTIAL QUARTER TOTAL TOTAL 1- t o 4 FAMILY MULTIFAMILY COMMERCIAL MULTFAMILY & COMMERCIAL FARM 1972 - I II III IV 67.6 74.1 77.6 88.1 49.3 54.1 59.1 63.6 38.0 41.0 48.1 47.9 11.3 13 , 1 11.0 15.7 14.8 16.5 14.9 21.0 26.1 29.6 25.9 36.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 1973 - I II III IV 80.6 87.4 80.7 70.4 56.0 59.9 56.2 48.5 47.8 46.9 43.7 40.6 8.2 13.0 12.5 7.9 19.1 21.7 19.4 16.4 27.3 34.7 31.9 24.3 5.6 5.8 5.0 5.5 1974 - I II III IV 69.9 70.9 54.5 46.7 48.7 47.2 35.1 29.7 39.2 40.3 28.4 25.4 9.5 6.9 6.7 4.3 17.5 18.7 13.6 11.2 27.0 25.6 20.3 15.5 3.6 4.9 5.8 5.9 1975 - I II III IV 44.0 55.0 62.3 67.7 29.7 39.8 45.3 50.8 28.9 39.8 44.9 51.9 0.8 0.0 0.4 -1.1 9.0 10.3 12.9 12.8 9.8 10.3 13.3 11.7 5.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 1976 - I II III IV 78.6 77.1 94.0 98.5 59.7 57.8 73.8 78.0 58.3 58.0 70.0 75.5 1.4 -0.1 3.8 2.5 13.7 14.5 13.4 13.0 15.0 14.4 17.2 15.5 5.3 4.8 6.9 7.6 1977 - I II III IV 105.3 136.4 142.1 152.1 82.0 113.1 115.1 116.8 77.9 104.6 108.2 107.2 4.1 8.5 6.9 9.6 14.5 14.0 18.5 26.5 23.3 23.3 27.0 35.3 8.8 9.3 8.5 8.8 1978 - I I I (p) 131.4 136.5 . 99.3 103.3 89.0 93.0 10.3 10.3 22.4 23.4 33.0 33.9 9.7 9.8 h , NOTES: 1 Derived from data on mortgage debt outstanding from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, Departments of Commerce and Agriculture, Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration and Comptroller of the Currency. Separation of nonfarm mortgage debt by type of property, where not available, and interpolations and extrapolations, where required, estimated mainly by Federal Reserve. 2 R e s i d e n t i a l mortgage debt i n c l u d e s nonfarm only and i s sum of 1 - t o 4 - f a m i l y and m u l t i f a m i l y mortgage d e b t . T a b l e 14 oo PRIVATE HOUSING PERMITS, STARTS, COMPLETIONS, AND MOBILE HOME SHIPMENTS IN T H O U S A N D S OF U N I T S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D A N N U A L RATES PERIOD TOTAL 1—FAMILY 2 - O R M O R E TOTAL 1—FAMILY 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 0 6 9 8 1 , 4 0 7 8 1 1 6 5 6 1 , 3 9 9 1 , 3 5 2 7 0 5 1 , 4 3 4 8 1 3 621 1 , 4 1 8 1 9 7 3 1,820 1 , 0 7 4 9 3 9 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 - Jan. Feb . Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 9 0 6 1 , 0 3 3 882 6 4 4 6 7 6 1 , 0 1 8 1 , 1 8 6 9 3 7 4 3 1 1—FAMILY 2 , 0 5 2 2 , 3 5 7 2 , 0 4 5 1 , 3 3 8 1 , 1 5 1 1 , 3 0 9 1 , 1 3 2 888 2 - O R M O R E FAMILY 626 2 , 2 1 9 1 9 7 5 TOTAL 6 4 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 M O R E 1 , 3 2 4 1 , 9 2 5 1 9 7 1 2 - O R FAMILY FAMILY MOBILE COMPLETIONS STARTS PERMITS 1 808 802 HOME SHIPMENTS 5 9 2 4 1 3 6 1 7 4 0 1 4 9 7 1 , 7 0 6 1 , 0 1 4 6 9 2 1 , 9 7 2 1 , 1 4 3 828 5 7 6 9 1 4 2 , 0 1 4 1 , 1 7 4 8 4 0 5 6 7 4 5 0 1 , 6 9 2 9 3 2 7 6 0 3 2 9 268 1 , 2 9 7 8 6 7 4 3 0 2 1 6 9 0 1 1 , 0 4 8 2 6 4 1,160 1 , 1 6 2 3 7 6 1 , 3 6 2 1,026 3 3 6 2 4 6 3 7 5 1 , 6 5 2 1 , 2 5 4 3 9 8 2 7 7 8 9 2 1 , 2 9 7 8 9 4 4 0 3 1 , 5 3 8 1 , 6 7 7 1 , 1 2 5 5 5 2 1 , 9 8 7 1 , 4 5 1 1 , 5 2 6 1 , 0 3 2 4 9 4 1 , 5 4 8 1 , 1 5 6 3 9 2 1 , 7 5 9 1 , 3 0 0 4 5 9 3 2 4 1 , 1 0 3 4 6 6 1 , 6 9 6 1 , 2 3 3 4 6 3 2 6 5 2 , 0 4 7 1 , 4 2 9 6 1 8 1 , 8 2 1 1 . 3 6 3 4 5 8 2 8 5 5 8 3 2 , 1 6 5 1 , 4 9 2 6 7 3 1 , 9 4 3 1 , 5 1 5 4 2 8 2 5 2 1 , 4 7 8 5 7 6 1 , 8 5 4 1 , 4 2 6 4 2 8 2 5 8 6 8 3 1 , 8 9 0 1 , 3 4 4 5 4 6 2 6 3 1 , 5 3 4 1 , 6 4 7 1 , 7 4 0 9 5 7 1 , 0 3 7 1 , 1 5 7 5 7 7 610 1 , 5 6 9 1 , 5 9 7 1 , 0 5 8 5 3 9 2 , 0 5 4 1 , 8 2 1 1 , 1 2 3 6 9 8 2 , 1 2 4 1 , 4 4 1 1 , 6 3 2 1 , 0 3 5 5 9 7 2 , 1 1 9 1 , 4 5 3 666 1 , 9 4 3 1 , 2 8 9 6 5 4 2 3 2 1 , 5 6 3 1,020 5 4 3 2 , 0 2 5 1 , 4 4 0 5 8 5 1 , 9 8 7 1 . 3 6 4 6 0 3 283 1 , 7 3 1 1 , 0 9 2 6 3 9 2 , 0 7 5 1 , 4 6 3 612 1 , 9 7 1 1 , 4 4 7 5 2 4 2 7 2 2 , 0 9 5 1 , 4 5 9 6 3 6 1 , 8 4 2 1 , 3 9 7 4 4 5 3 0 0 2 , 1 0 4 1 , 4 9 8 606 1 , 7 1 9 1 , 6 9 1 1 , 1 2 7 1 , 1 1 4 5 9 2 5 7 7 3 0 4 NOTES: Private building permits (for 14,000 areas with permit systems, excluding farm), starts, and completions are Census Bureau data. A dwelling unit is started when excavation begins. In the case of apartment buildings, all units are considered started at that time; however, all such units are considered completed when more than half of the units in the structure are ready for use. Private mobile home shipments are Mobile Home Manufacturers Association data converted to seasonally adjusted annual rate by Census Bureau. 1 Permit data for 1969 and 1970 based on 13,000 areas with permit systems Table 15 AVERAGE RATES AND YIELDS ON HOME MORTGAGES CONVENTIONAL LOANS PRIMARY MARKET EXISTING HOMES NEW HOMES 1 PERIOD SPREAD BETWEEN NEW Aaa RETURNS ON UTILITY CONVENTIONAL 1 BOND AND HUD(FHA) YIELD NEW HOME DISCOUNT (PERCENTAGE MORTGAGES (IN PER CENT) (BASIS POINTS) POINTS) HUD(FHA) INSURED LOANS SECONDARY MARKET NEW HOMES 1 RATE (IN PER CENT) SPREAD (BASIS POINTS) RATE (IN PER CENT) SPREAD (BASIS POINTS) YIELD (IN PER CENT) SPREAD (BASIS POINTS) 1976 - High Low 9.05 8.90 91 5 9.10 8.95 95 10 9.06 8.25 59 8 4.3 2 .0 65 - 4 8.72 8.05 1977 - High Low 9.10 8.80 99 52 9.20 8.85 98 63 9.11 8.40 73 22 4.7 1.7 40 4 8.31 8.01 1978 - J a n . 9.15 9.25 9.30 9.40 9.60 9.75 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.95 .10.10 NA 54 47 48 58 59 72 100 74 72 NA 9.20 9.25 9.30 9.45 9.60 9.75 9.80 9.80 9.85 9.95 10.15 NA 54 47 53 58 59 72 100 79 72 NA 9 .11 NA 9.29 9.37 9 .67 NA 9.92 9.78 9.78 9.93 9.99 NA NA 46 45 65 NA 84 98 72 55 NA 4.7 NA 4.1 4.7 5.0 NA 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.6 4 NA 1 3 - 7 NA -12 2 2 2 11 NA 8.71 8.83 8.92 9.02 9.16 9 .08 8.80 9.06 9.23 NA Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. NOTES: 1 Gross yield spread is average mortgage return before deducting servicing costs, minus average yield on new issues of high-grade utility bonds with 5-year call protection. Rates on conventional first mortgages (excluding additional fees and charges) are based on unweighted HUD (FHA) field office opinions on prevailing contract interest rates in the market areas of the insuring offices, rounded to the nearest 5 basis points. For secondary market data, weighted HUD office opinions on the average bid price for HUD (FHA) loans with minimum downpayment, prepaid in 15 years, for immediate delivery, are used. H.!6 20 Table 16 FNMA AUCTION RESULTS HOME MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS CONVENTIONAL GOVERNMENT-UNDERWRITTEN AMOUNT (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) DATE OF AUCTION OFFERED OFFERED ACCEPTED AVERAGE YIELD ACCEPTED 1 0 . 6 9 ( 1 2 / 2 7 ) 717(5/15) 363(5/15) 10.92(12/27) 1011(1/9) 605(1/9) Low 130(8/7) 80(8/7) J u l y 10 24 503.3 253.4 327.4 144.1 10.02 10.00 169.8 146.2 90.5 88.4 10.17 10.21 Aug. 7 21 130.3 368.8 80.1 197.1 9.82 9.80 74.7 150.0 47.5 81.0 10.15 10.07 Sept. 5 18 351.2 366.7 154.7 181.2 9.78 9.79 199.4 285.3 126.3 157.4 3.0.02 10.01 Oct. 2 16 30 682.4 425.4 857.0 278.6 176.2 377.6 9.91 9.98 10.20 395.5 336.1 425.2 166.9 148.8 179.9 10.10 10.18 10.31 Nov. 13 27 452.8 335.2 182.4 139.4 10.27 10.33 488.2 373.2 199.5 187.3 10.49 10.64 Dec. 11 27 283.4 343.6 144.4 175.2 10.40 10.60 262.2 155.2 141.5 79.4 10.77 10.92 Jan. 211.0 101.1 10.67 71.2 36.0 11.02 1978 - High 1979 AVERAGE YIELD AMOUNT (IN MILLIONS OF D O L L A R S ) 9 9.13(1/9) 75(8/7) 48(8/7) 9.28(1/9) NOTES: Average secondary market yields are gross before deduction of the fee of 38 basis points paid for mortgage servicing. They reflect the average accepted bid yield for home mortgages assuming a prepayment period of 12 years for 30-year loans, without special adjustment for Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) commitment fees and FNMA stock purchase and holding requirements on 4-month commitments. Mortgage amounts offered by bidders relate to total eligible bids received. H.16
@FedFRASER