Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : January 15, 1971
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COB lfEA liL L.5.8 AFTER S I X M O M S Grfnfcidential ( F . R . ) January 15, 1971 L ^ CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Capital Markets Section, Division of Research arid Statistics# . Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D. C. - INDEX 3-5 Developments in the Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets 6-7 Capital Market Y i e l d s 8-13 Capital Market Volume 14-17 Stock Market 18-33 Mortgage Market SYMBOLS: e , Estimate p Preliminary r Revised n o. Not available 3 TABLE 1: Yields, Volume and Reception . YIELDS MOODY 1 S SEASONED NEW ISSUE 1 Aaa WEEK ENDING 1970 - Dec. 1971 - Jan. 4 11 18 25 7.95 7.74 7.68 -- 1 8 15 22 7.59 7.31 n.a. 1970 - Dec. 4 11 18 j 25 1971 - Jan. 7.85 . 7.78 7.59 7.51 7.48 7.45 7.42 j' YIELDS BOND BUYER MOODY'S SEASONED 20 SEASONED Aaa BOND INDEX WEEK ENDING 1 1 i 8 | 15 ! 22! CORPORATE BOND MARKET VOLUME 2 PER CENT 1 GROSS SOLD BY END ! BONDS SCHEDULED OFFERINGS OF WEEK : WITHIN 28 DAYS 849 796 525 52 92 85 58 96 __ __ 345 797 375e. 80 95 943 761 878 800 773 .... 748 i MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET VOLUME 2 1 PER CENT ' GROSS SOLD BY END I BONDS SCHEDULED OF WEEK j WITHIN 28 DAYS OFFERINGS 5.15 5.15 5.25 5.25 5.41 5.33 5.47 5.50 477 709 813 173 74 48 77 78 1,341 919 995 901 5.25 5.40 5.00 5.58 5.74 5.39 42 561 810 506 e 82 86 94 1,377 1,653 n.a. .... .... 1 1 Derived by adjusting to a Aaa basis, new issues of publicly-offered corporate bonds with call protection, rated A, Aa, or Aaa by Moody's Investors Service (except serial and convertible issues, offerings of natural gas pipeline and foreign companies, and bonds guaranteed by the Federal Government.) 2 Millions of dollars unless otherwise indicated. Note: See footnotes to Table 3 TABLE 2: Details ori'inventories DATE OFFERED CORPORATE! BONDS IN SYNDICATE END OF LATEST WEEK [ORIGINAL 1 RATING AND ISSUER COUPON | YIELD [CALL PROTECTION ' AMOUNT (MIL. $) Carolina Pwr. & Light Industrial Nat'1 Corp. Amer. Invest. 65.0 25.0 30.0 1/14 1/14 12/10 \ 7.33 8.35 9.50 7-3/8 8-1/4 9-1/2 Aa N.R. N.R. 5 y r s. 10 yrs. 5 yrs. ESTIMATED PROPORTION SOLD 40% 90% 60% • \. OFFERED DATE | RELEXSED . CORPORATE BONDS RELEASED FROM SYNDICATE DURING LATEST WEEK ORIGINAL INCREASE RATING AND ESTIMATED PROISSUER COUPON IN YIELD CALL PROT. PORTION RELEASED YIELD AMOUNT NONE INVENTORIES 1 MUNICIPALS BLUE LIST | IN SYNDICATE DATE 1970 - Dec. 1971 - Jan. 18 25 1 8 15 952 986 939 r810 846 . 323 260 235 196 96 CORPORATES IN SYNDICATE 369 290 263 95 48 N.C. - No call protection. 1 All figures"~in millions of dollars. • which is- daily average of three days Blue List is daily average for week ended Friday,except for latest, week ended Wednesday. All other figures are as of Friday. -<• . / T A B L E 3: High Grade Bond Yields NEW CORPORATE Aaa 1 DATE MOODY'S SEASONED CORPORATE Aaa 2 U.S. GOVERNMENT 20-YEAR CONSTANT MATURITIES 3 BOND BUYER'S SEASONED MUNICIPALS 4 1968 - High Low 7. 02 6. 13 (12/13) (8/30) 6.55 5.95 (1/27) (9/13) 5.90 5.18 (1/20) (8/9) 4.85 4.07 (1/26) (8/8) 1969 - High Low 8.,85 6.,90 (12/5) (2/21) 7.84 6.55 (2/26) (1/12) 6.97 5.96 (12/26) (1/24) 6.90 4.82 (12/18) (1/28) 1970 - High Low 9,.30 .7,.68 (6/19) (12/18) 8.60 7.48 (7/3) (12/31) 7.55 6.17 (5/29) (12/18) 7.12 5.33 (5/29) (12/11) 1970 - Dec. 18 25 1971 - Jan. 1 8 15 1 7 .68 . 7 .59 7 .31 7.59 7.51 6.17 6.34 5.47 5.50 7.48 7.45 7.42 6.44 6.36 6.21 5.58 5.74 5.39 New corporate issues, with call protection, adjusted (as described in footnote 1 of Table 1) to a Aaa basis. 2 Weekly average of daily figures. Average term of bonds included is 22-24 years. 3 Weekly average of daily figures. 4 Thursday figures. The average rating of the 20 bonds used in this index falls midway between the four top groups as classified by Moody's Investors Service. Note--Highs and lows are for individual series and may be on different dates for different scries. TABLE 4: Long-term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) GROSS PROCEEDS CORPORATE PERIOD 1968 1,771 ' ! 1,608 I 1,799 1,340 1,214 1,551 1,262 987 538 1,178 1,158 1,404 2 ,748 2 ,076 2 ,530 1,428 1,866 2,411 ; 1,647 995 1,088 1,801 1,110 737 1,318 1,143 1,395 2,768 2,274 3,518 2 ,478 1 ,427 2 ,427 2,143 1,432 1,557 I ! . 1,338 1,355 1,728 1,097 808 559 1,469 1,699 1,444 ; 3,800e 4,050e 3,700e 1 ,933 2 ,375 2,,532 2,129 1,767 2,054 j 1,860 l,600e 2,214e 1,280 886 816 2,230 1,021 1,115 ' j 7,977 10,468 8,560 11,550e 6,218 7.,354 6,,332 6;,840 5,178 5,704 5,133 5,950 • 4,105 3,730 •4,421 5,674e 2,787 3,648 2,464 2,982 3,840 3,856 4,612 4,366 18,445 27,005 38,555e 13,,572 19, 904 26, 744 10,882 16,015 21,965 7,835 12,256e ! 17,930e 6,435 8,899 11,881 January February March 2,636 1,802 3,539 2 ,075 2 ,045 2 ,098 April May 3,170 3,909 3,389 July August September October November December 1st half Three quarters Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1968 " Excluding finance companies 3 j 6, 170 7, 037 I 5,107 5,427 4,785 5,654 1 Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of gross proceeds. Investment Bankers Association of America estimates of principal amounts. Total gross proceeds excluding offerings of sales and consumer finance companies. ; ^ ; t 7,956 J 12,008 = 16,574 i 20,973 Year 1 2 3 1 1969 1969 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter STATE AND LOCAL 2 ! 1970 1970 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1 TABLE 5: New Corporate Security Issues, Type of Issue and Issuer (In millions of dollars) OlIARTER OR MONTH TOTAL GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUE COMMON AND MEMO: PUBLICLY] PRIVATELY PFD. ISSUES INCLUDED MFG. STOCK OFFERED PLACED FOREIGN CONVERTIBLE GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUER PUBLIC UTILITY COMMUNICATIONS OTHER ISSUERS 1 6,840 3,479 1,053 2,307 115 809 1,314 1,967 598 2,961 1970 - I lie Il.Ie IV 7,977 10,468 8,560 11,550 4,577 6,994 5,987 7,650 1,235 1,282 914 1,400 2,147 2,190 1,659 2,500 222 135 83 n.a. 922 710 287 550 2,584 2,445 2,314 2,900 2,085 2,812 2,714 2,995 766 2,162 868 1,325 2,543 3,048 2,663 4,330 1969 - Dec. 2,532 1,346 514 672 48 401 601 600 277 1,054 2,636 1,595 3,539 3,170 3,909 3,389 2,768 2,274 3,518 3,800 4,050 3,700 1,914 2,022 3,041 1,931 1,831 1,731 2,425 2,400 2,950 2,300 516 266 471 447 399 436 320 205 389 400 300 700 525 468 1,154 701 468 1,021 617 338 704 61 33 128 89 387 249 286 398 230 82 107 59 121 150 200 811 357 1,416 689 817 939 638 682 994 1,125 1,025 750 639 540 906 1,109 234 226 306 62 1,747 353 144 279 445 375 675 275 952 680 911 1,310 744 994 1,143 682 838 1969 - IV 1970 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept&/ Oct.-' Nov.- 1,802 1,068 1,000 800 700 20 26 68 11 4 n. a. n.a. n.a. 200 600 1,103 843 630 1,241 1,100 970 925 \X Other issuers arc extractive, railroad and other transportation, real estate and finance, and commercial and other. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. Quarterly supplements are available. 1,200 1,380 1,750 / TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 January 8,thru January 15. ISKUKR TYPE y AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY I'.OUVON, HATS: OR X1., I..TKK1 ST COST OL'TT.RINC YLL',1,1) MOOhY' KATIM, Corporates B. F. Saul Real Estate Invest. Trust. Commonwealth Edison Co. Alabama Gas Union Electric Co. Northwestern Bell Tel. Co. Pub. Serv. Co. of Ind. National Lead Co. Carolina Pwr. & Light Co. Western Auto Supply Co. Associates Corp. Industrial Nat'1 Corp. Macy Credit Corp. Florida Pwr. & Lt. Co. Elizabeth Wtr. Co. 1st. Penna.Banking Trst. Co. Arvin Industries Oscar Mayer's Cities Service Co. Cities Service Co. Madison Gas & Elec. Debs. 1st. Mtg 1st. Mtg . 1st. Mtg bds. Debs. 1st. Mtg . Debs. 1st. Mt|g S.F. debs. Debs. Debs. Debs. 1st. Mtg Bds. Cap. Notes S.F. debs. Debs. Notes Debs. 1st. Mtg . 17.0 100.0 16.0 1990 2001 1996 8.00 7.50 8.75 8.00 7.45 8.65 50.0 150.0 50.0 100.0 65.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 30.0 80.0 17.0 25.0 15.0 40.0 50.0 100.0 15.0 2001 2011 7.88 7.88 7.63 7.50 7.38 7.85 8.50 3.25 7.38 7.63 7.88 6.88 9.38 A 85 7.00 7.65 7.75 7.75 7.85 7.55 7.52 7.33 7.85 9.25 8.35 7.32 7.54 7.63 6.88 9.38 7.85 6.95 7.65 7.60 —— 1995 2001 1996 1990 1996 1977 2001 1977 1978 1996 1996 1978 2001 2001 Aaa A Aa Aaa A A Aa A —— —— Aa A Baa A A A Aa TABLE 6: Large Loncj term Public Security issues for New Capital (contimn d) (Oilier than U.S. Treasury)' 1 ISSUER TYPE 2 AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Januarys. thru January 15.1971 COUPON ! RATE OR I OITI:I<- MOODY'S MATURITY NET INTER-- : I;.( RATING EST COST I VI l.l.l) State and Local Washington Suburban Sanitary Dist Vineland, N.J. Kentucky Turnpike Auth. San Antonio, Tex. New Jersey, State of The Chicago Pub. Bldg. Oregon, State of Oregon, State of New York State Dormitory Auth. Wisconsin, state of Connecticut Health & Ed Fac. Auth. Birmingham, Ala. Birmingham, Ala. Hillsborough Co. STSD #1 Fla. *North Carolina Port of Seattle, Wash. Dallas Co., Tex. Metro Wtr. Dist. of So. Calif. 1 New York City Bonds G.O. Rev. Rev. G.O. Rev. G.O. G.O. Rev. G.O. 10.0 10.0 100.0 30.0 75.0 56.0 15.0 60.0 30.7 35.0 1972-2001 1972-1996 1974-1990 1972-1992 1998-2001 1973-1991 1972-1991 1975-1978 1973-2002 Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. \ G.O. Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. 10.9 10.0 ,5.7 18.0 115.0 27.0 25.0 100.0 236.0 1973-2002 1971-98 1971-88 1972-91 1972-81 1973-01 1972-91 1981-00 1972-01 5.99 5.30 3.20-6.50 3.00-5.80 — 5.17 5.23 6.01 4.80 4.90 6.58 4.67 7.20 5.32 5.03 5.02 3.79 6.40 4.46 5.86 6.98 -- „ \ 3.00-5.50 3.60-5.75 3.50-6.50 3.00-5.60 3.65-5.30 3.50-7.00 3.00-5. 50 4.006.00 2.90-6.30 3.00-6,25 4.00-5.40 2.75-3.90 3.50-6.90 2.90-5.20 4.10-5.70 4.70-7.40 A Aa — Aaa Aaa A-l AA Aa — -- A A A A-l A -- Aa Baa-1 ' ° • • ' \ TABLE B: Lartje LOIVI term Public Security Issuos'for New Capital (continuvd) ,x tOtliei than U.S. Treasury) 1 4 ISSUER TYPE 2 Montgomery Co., Md. Easton Baton Rouge Parish, La. Greater Chicago Metro Sant.Dist Washington Pub. Supply Systern G.O. G. 0. G.O. Rev. notes Other Federal Home Loan Bank Bds. AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 30.0 10.0 20.0 15.0 January 8. thru January 15, 1971 COUPON | i RATE OR MOODY'S MATURITY 1 NET INTER!:.( RATING _ } EST COST j VI 1.1,1) 1972-01 1972-91 1973-91 1974 4.87 4.77 5.03 3.45 1975 6. 3.10-4.89 3.00-5.35 3.20-6.00 N.R. A A-L / 250.0 6.10 K i ghts ol" for ing. Includes corporate'and other security offerings of $15 million State and local security offerings of $10 million and over. In case of State and local government secuni ties, G.O. denotes gem r,i I obi igation; Rev. -Vt. , revenue obligations secured onl'vjpy income from pub 1 Rev.-Q.-lit., revenue bonds secured only by income from quasi-u t i 1 i t i;e Rex .-S.T. , revenue bonds secured by revenue from specific taxes only; Rev . - Rent. bonds secured solely by lease payments. includes foreign government and International Bank for Rcconst Development issues and non-quarantced issues by Federal Agenci 11 TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury)1 (continued) As of January 15, 1971 ISSUER Corporates Safeco Corp. Galbreath 1st. Mtg. Invest. Penna Elec. Co. American Finance System Inc. Pacific Gas Transmission Co. Walter E. Heller & Co. Monumental Corp. Food Fair Stores Inc. Tampa Electric Alabama Gas Co. Jim Walter Cdrp. Southwestern Bell Tel. Co. Outboard Marine Corp. Gen'1 Tel. Co. of Wis. Jos. Schlitz Brewing Co. Microdot Inc. Beneficial Corp. Beneficial Corp. Occidental Petroleum Corp. Penna Pwr & Lt. Co. Niagara Mohawk Pwr."Co. Pacific Pwr. & Lt. Co. Pub. Serv. Co. of Colo. Texas Pwr. & Lt. Co. Central Pwr & Lt. Co. Indiana & Mich. Elec. Co. Georgia Pwr. Co. Wisconsin Tel. Co. Gen'1 Tel. Co. Florida TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 25.0 Notes Debs. 15.0 Debs. 30.0 Debs. 30.0 40.0 Bds. 20.0 Debs. 20.0 Notes 35.0 Debs. 30.0 1st. Mtg. 16.0 1st. Mtg. 30.0 Conv. deb. 200.0 Debs. Debs. 35.0 15.0 Bds. 50.0 Debs. 20.0 Notes Bds. 50.0 25.0 Bds. Conv. debs, 100.0 60. p Debs. 1st. Mtg. 65.0 1st. Mtg. 40.0 1st. Mtg. bds. 40.0 30.0 1st. Mtg. 36.0 1st. Mtg. 30.0 Bds. 1st. Mtg. 49.5 Debs. 90.0 45.0 1st. Mtg. APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING Jan. 18 Jan. 18 Jan. 18 Jan. 19 Jan. 19 Jan. 19 Jan. 19 Jan. 19 Jan. 20 Jan. 20 Jan. 26 Jan. 26 Jan. 26 Jan. 27 Jan. 27 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Feb. 1 Feb. 2 Feb. 2 Feb. 3 Feb. 4 Feb. 9 Feb. 10 Feb. 16 Feb. 16 Feb. TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital . (Other than U.S. Treasury)' ^ q£ J a n u a r y 15> ISSUER State—and Local Virginia Public Sch. Auth. Norfolk, Va. Georgia Education Auth. , Sacramento Municipal Utility Dis California Jefferson Co., N. Y. Attleboro, Mass. New York St. Urban Dev. Corp. Utica Comm. S/D, Mich. New Hampshire, State ofs Mississippi, State of ^ Phoenix, Ariz. Ohio, State of Hennepin Co., Minn. Area Voc Tech. Indpv Sch. Dist. #287 San Francisco BART San Juan P.R. Baton Rouge, La. University of Tex., Austin Connecticut Prince William Co., Va. Alaska Los Angeles DWAP California San Antonio, Tex. Peabody, Mass. Los Angeles Co. Fid. Ctr. Dist California Other HUD TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) l g n APPROXIMATE DA^E OF OFFERING G. 0. G.O. Rev. 25.0 25.0 33.0 Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. Rev. 50.0 10.0 10,4 250.0 14.0 39.1 30.0 10.0 25.0 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 20 19 20 21 25 26 26 26 27 G.O. Bds. Rev. Rev. G.O. G.O. G. 0. Rev. Bds. Rev. G.O. 13.0 50.0 14.8 15.8 20.0 100.0 15.0 21.3 18.0 100.0 10.0 11.0 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. 27 27 27 27 28 G.O. 24.0 Feb. 16 Bds. 135.0 Jan. 27 Jan. 19 Jan. 19 Jan. 19 4 29 2 2 2 11 11 Included in table for first time. . Includes cdrporate_and other issues of $15 million and over; State and local Government issues of $10 million and over. Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non--guaranteed issues of Federal Agencies. i "J f f 1 1 • r pr E r . i. f TABLE 8: Stock Prices and Volume STOCK PRICES 1 NYSJS « 1 INDEX 4 DATE D.J. - IND. TRADING AMEX 4 NYSE VC M*1L2 | AMEX 1968 - High Low 61.27(11/29)985.21(12/13) 48.66(3/5) 825.13 (3/21) 33.24(12/20) 21.97(3/25) 17.1(7/12) 8.3(3/29) 9.3(1/19) 2.9(3/29) 1969 - High Low 59.32(5/14) 968.85(5/14) 49.31(7/29) 769 . 93(12/17) 32.91(1/3) 25.02(7/29) 16.5(3/29) 8.6(8/29) 8.0(1/31) 3.6(11/21) 1970 - High Low 52.36(1/5) 842.00(12/29) 27.02(1/8) 37.69(5/26) 631.16(5/26) ' 19.36(5/27) 18.5(12/4) 7:8(8/14) 7.1(1/2) 1.8(8/14) 1970 - Dec. 18 25 49.06 49.37 822.77 828.38 22.08 22.41 13.9 13.7 3.2 3.3 1971 - Jan. 50.23 50.46 51.16 838.92 837.01 845.70 22.75 23.10 23.52 15.6 14.0 17.4 4.4 3.6 4.3 1 8 15 1. Figures other than highs and lows are Fridays only. for the year and are not necessarily for Fridays. 2. NYSE is the New York Stock Exchange; AMEX is the American Stock Exchange. Volume figures are daily averaged for the entire week, (millions of shares). Trading is normally conducted for 5-1/2 hours per day and 5 days per week, or 27-1/2 hours per week. In recent years, however abbreviated trading to the extent, and over the time periods, shown below; Hours/ Days/ Hours/ Day Week Through: From August 8, 1967 January 22, 1968 June 30, 1968 January 3, 1969 July 7, 1969 January 2, 1970 August 20, 1967 March 1, 1968 December 31, 1968 July 3, 1969 December 31, 1969 May 1, 1970 3. 12/31/65 = 50 4. Average dollar value of shares listed. 4 4 5-1/2 4 4-1/2 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 Highs and Inws are 20 20 22 20 22-1/2 25 14 TABLE 9: Security Credit END OF PERIOD CREDIT EXTENDED TO MARGIN CUSTOMERS BY: BROKERS 1 | BANKS 2 | TOTAL Outstanding; 5,040 5,070 1969 - Oct. Nov. Dec. 1970 - Jan. ' Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1970 - Jan. Feb. Mar. . Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Get. Nov. 7,610 7,590 ! | 7,243 7,111 2,753 2,613 4j490 4,498 4,642 4,970 2,580 "7,550 7,445 2,803 4,680 4,570 4,520 4,360 4,160 4,150 3,800 3,810 3,920 4,010 4,012 2,430 2,370 2,370 2,330 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,300 2,330 2,270 2,320 7,110 6,940 6,890 6,690 6,450 6,150 6,090 6,110 6,250 6,280 6,332 6,683 6,562 6,353 5,985 5,433 5,281 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 2,626 2,563 2,441 2,248 2,222 2,009 (5)2,180 2,083 2,236 2,163 2,197 -60 100 30 -100 -50 -50 -50 60 -110 50 -20 -40 20 204 -132 334 -290 -110 -50 -160 200 -10 -350 -10 -150 -40 -440 -170 -50 -200 240 -300 -60 -2 0 Change in Outstanding; 1969 - Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,570 2,520 • NET CREDIT j i CUSTOMERS' I CUSTOMERS' NET EXTENDED BY BROKERS AND j NET DEBIT | FREE CREDIT DEALERS 3 BALANCES j BALANCES 4,057 4,099 3,912 3,724 3,211. 3,272 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) - i 110 90 2 — -40 -40 -—— 10 30 -60 50 140 30 52 2 174 -140 .190 18 30 8 144 -762 -121 -209 -368 -552 -152 -177 -163 -22 -193 -26 -213 -585 42 -187 -188 -513 -61 —— 171 97 153 -73 34 -- . —— -- Margin debt, as reported by the New York Stock Exchange. Although margin debt until March 1968 included loans secured by U.S. governments, the amount of such 1 loans included is thought to have been small. "Bank loans to-others than brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying securities other than U.S. governments." The difference between customers' net debit balances and customers' net free credit balances, this figure represents the net credit extended by brokers and dealers to the nonfinancial public. NOTE: With the exception of bank loan data, figures are supplied by the New York Stock Exchange and are end of month data. Bank loans are for weekly reporting lapoe commercial banks. Broker data includes loans for regulated securities; bank data includes loans for the purpose of purchasing or carrying any security, whether regulated or not. 4 Series discontinued. 5 Changes in series. TABLE 10: Savings Flows at Nonbank Depositary Intermediaries ($ millions) DATE MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS REGULAR DEPOSITS 3 NET NEW ANNUAL MONEY 2 GROWTH NET FLOW RATE 1 SAVINGS , 5c LOAN ASSOCIATIONS NET SHARE CAPITAL NEW ANNUAL NET MONEY 2 GROWTH FLOW RATE 1 5,082 4,203 2,549 2,376 1,143 -763 10,649 7,432 4,019 266 179 -237 -406 226 1,069 TOTAL DEPOSITS ANNUAL NET GROWTH RATE 1 FLOW NET NEW MONEY 2 Not Seasonally Ad lusted 9.3 7.0 4.0 Oct. Nov. Dec. -138 257 571 Oct. Nov. Dec. 276 497 900 -- 497 268 437 444 531 557 8.8 4.7 7.6 7.7 9.1 9.5 2./ —— — -- -- 138 388 n.a. 1,130 1,098 2,696 9.3 6.0 3.1 — — —- 6,136 2,738 -1,003 15,371 11,635 6,568 -430 207 -387 -544 483 1,640 -- 1,064 n.a. n.a. 1,406 1,595 3,596 . -- 9.3 6.3 3.4 8,512 3,881 -1,766 -696 386 -624 1,202 n.a. Seasonally Ad iusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2./ 1 2 3 — -- -- 1,776 785 1,393 1,399 1,092 1,721 15.5 6.8 , 11.9 11.9 9.2 14.3 -—- —— --- 2,273 1,053 1,830 1,843 1,623 2,278 13.3 6.1 10.5 10.5 9.2 12.8 1 Annual growth rate for monthly data is the annualized monthly percentage increase in deposits, Net New Money is new deposits net of both withdrawals and interest. Data for S&L s are for insured associations only, which represent 96% of industry total resources. Regular deposits at mutual savings banks exclude items such as Christmas club and cert a j n escrow accounts, which represent a very small part of total deposits. X, SOURCE: National Association of Mutual Savings Banks and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. • -—— -— • TABLE 11: Mortgage Commitments at Selected Thrift Institutions DATE TOTAL NET CHANGE ALL SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS OUTSTANDING COMMITMENTS ALL MUTUAL SAVINGS SAVINGS & BANKS LOAN (N.Y. STATE) ASSOCIATIONS (Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted) 1969 - Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 9.2 8.9 1970 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July 8.2 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.6 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.5 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1 -.31 -.33 -.24 -.25 -.18 -.17 -.30 -.26 .13 .24 .22 r.38 MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS (N.Y. STATli) 1/ -.23 -.13 -.09 12 -.13 -.22 -.23 .04 -.07 -.05 -.13 -.14 -.09 r-.04 -.18 -.21 .26 .38 .30 r.42 r.33 2.0 r.24 6.8 9.8 Aug. .39 r.24 r?.l 1.9 9.1 Sept. .32 .39 9.3 Oct. 1.9 7.4 .33 .34 1.9 7.5 -NoVji. -9-.ABased on data from Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Savings Banks Associations of New York State. Net changes are derived directly from unrounded outstandings levels as reported and after seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve. Subtotals may not add to totals because of rounding. Mutual Savings Banks and total data include building loans beginning August .1967. -. 06 r-.08 -.10 -.06 -.07 17 TABLE 12: Net Change in Mortgage Holdings 1 DATE TOTAL INCLUDING FNMA-GNMA TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS & COMMERCIAL SAVINGS LOAN BANKS BANKS ASSOC. Not Seasonally Adjusted 1966 1967 1968 1969 18,105 20,016 23,781 24,051 15,782 18,219 21,273 19,676 1969 - Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 2,151 1,942 1,815 1,636 1,623 1,441 1,226 1,042 1970 - Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1,967 2,213 2,153 n.a. 1,568 1,851 1,786 n. a. 200 400 200 r300 1969 - Oct. Nov. Dec. 1,750 1,648 1,913 1,204 1,078 1,315 292 228 314 130 144 279 1970 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1,469 1,542 1,330 1,351 1,485 1,749 2,083 1,817 2,091 2,074 n.a. 919 1,044 809 844 1,050 1,281 1,575 1,409 1,727 1,754 231 199 140 76 65 81 165 168 228 195 224 25 143 186 188 155 201 142 175 245 170 176 4,705 4,639 6,677 5,535 400 500 . 300 300 LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES FXMA-GNMA ' 2,720 3,153 2,787 2,682 3,761 7,520 9,350 9,407 4,596 2,907 2,459 2,052 181 120 158 151 844 667 608 450 198 154 160 141 528 501 589 594 182 216 196 183 1,111 1,122 1,202 1,165 75 113 188 n. a. 399 362 367 252 601 555 571 181 151 151 546 570 598 452 482 322 385 631 777 1,055 983 1,103 1,189 1,270 211 220 161 195 199 222 213 83 151 200 n.a. 550 498 521 507 * 435468 : 508 408 364 320 228 ! l i i 2,323 1,797 2,508 4,375 Seasonally Adjusted R/ 1 Monthly data for commercial banks based on Federal Reserve estimates benchmarked to Call Report data on real estate loans outstanding as available. Other data derived from mortgage debt outstanding as reported separately by National Assn. of Mutual Savings Banks, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance and, through August 1968, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and thereafter by FNMA and the. Government National Mortgage Association. Data for mutual savings banks and for Life Insurance companies may differ somewhat from those derived from regular quarterly Series because of minor conceptual differences for which.adjustments are not made in the monthly series. Altogether, these groups accounted for 86 per cent of the net increase estimated for all holders in 196 9. TABLE 13: Net Increases in Mortgage Debt Outstanding 1 Billions of dollars, SAAR QUARTER TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 3 1- to 4FAMILY MULTIFAMILY COMMERCIAL MULTI-AND COMMERCIAL FARM 8.2 6.0 2.2 1.8 7.3 8.4 8.8 8.4 • 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.8 1966 - II IV 18.6 15.1 10.9 9.1 8.3 7.0 2.6 2.1 5.5 4.1 1967 - I II III IV 15.9 20.7 26.6 27.3 10.3 13.9 19.2 19.8 7.0 10.5 15.3 16.0 3.3 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.9 5.0 . 4.9 4.8 1968-r I p 1$ IIIp IVp 27.7 26.2 26.0 29.6 19.0 18.2 17.7 20.2 15.8 15.0 14.1 16.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.8 6.4 5.9 6.5 7.5 9.4 9.2 10.2 11.1 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8 1969 - I p H p IIIp IVp 31.3 28.9 26.5 30.4 29.0 21.5 19.3 18.3 18.6 16.8 14.6 13.0 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.3 6.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 10.4 10.1 10.0 10.7 2.2 2-2 1.8 1,4 j 1970 - I p ii> IIIp IVp 20.3 23.4 26.9 13.8 16.9 20.9 8.8 11.5 15.0 5.0 5.4 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.2 9.8 9.8 10.1 1.5 1.5 i.7 ! - ; | f I 1 ! 1 Derived .-from data on mortgage debt outstanding from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of l i f e Insurance, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, Departments of Commerce and Agriculture, Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration and Comptroller of the Currency. Separation of nonfarm mortgage debt by type of property, where not available, and interpolation# and extrapolations, where required, estimated mainly by Federal Reserve. 2 May differ somewhat from related flow of funds serie? mainly because of more aggregative type of seasonal adjustment. 3 Residential mortgage debt includes nonfarm only and is sum of 1-to 4- family and multifamily mortgage debt combined. TABLE 14: FNMA Weekly " A u c t i o n " Results WEEK ENDED IMPLICIT YIELD 2 (per cent) COMMITMENTS IN $ MILLIONS ACCEPTED 1 1-YEAR 1 1-YEAR' 90f) 90TOTAL TOTAL 6& OVER DAY MONTH M0NTH & OVER OFFERED DAY Aug. 10 24 441.3 575.0 180. 2 215. 1 41.4 48.8 91.0 124.4 47.8 41.9 9.03 9.03 9. 03 9. 03 9.04 9.03 Sept . 8 21 384.2 207.8 200. 1 195. 3 4 .6 4i.l 117.0 121.5 37.5 33.7 9.06 9.01 9. 04 9.,01 9.04 9.02 Oct. 5 19 267.5 352.5 149.,8 149.,7 62.2 53.2 73.1 88.1 14.5 8.4 8.90 8.89 8.,92 8,,90 8.97 8.95 Nov. 2 16 341.5 222.4 181,,2 170,,3 100.1 75.8 62.4 79.4 18.7 15.1 8.90 8.89 8,.93 8 .90 8.93 8.92 Dec. 7 14 28 166.5 165.5 60.6 127,,8 124,.7 48 .1 54.7 42. 1 17.:2 60.9 72.1 28.9 12.2 10.5 3.0 8.56 8.51 8.41 8 .54 .8 .43 8 .36 8.57 8.47 8.40 Jan. 11 3/ (75.0) Note: Under the FNMA auction system, approved sellers of Governmentunderwritten mortgages hid for FNMA forward purchase commitments, subject to an over-all dollar limit announced by FNMA in advance. Rids accepted by FNMA are for delivery at the seller's option, and at any . time within the!specified period. Bids on proposed homes relate to construction not yet started on which mortgages may be delivered only after completion and occupancy. 1 For "proposed construction" of new homes only. 2 Average secondary market yield after allowance, for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FNMA stock, assuming prepayment of 1 r> years for 30-year Government-underwritten mortgages. Yields shown are gross, before deduction of 50 basis points fee paid by investors to servicers. Prior to August 1 0 , 1970 the servicing fee was 50 basis points. 3 FNMA announced limit of accepted bids for next week's auction. 20 TABLE 15: Private Housing Starts and Permits STARTS UNADJUSTED TYPE OF FINANCING FHA | VA I OTHER SEA SONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE TOTAL 1-FAMILY 2 OR MORE 1969 Nov. Dec. 1,280 1,402 762 776 518 626 94.6 84.1 1970 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. r Oct. r Nov. p 1,059 1,306 1.392 1,224 1,242 1.393 1,603 1,425 1,509 1,570 1,692 577 725 708 697 728 835 827 838 881 881 933 482 581 684 527 514 558 776 776 587 627 689 66.4 74.3 114.7 128.4 125.0 135.2 140.8 128.7 130.9 139.6 126.9 18.8 BUILDING PERMITS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE) 2 3.9 4.2 74.7 57.9 1,191 1,239 16.5 3.4 17.5 3.9 25.2 4.8 32.4 5.4 37.1 5.2 40.7 5.1 43.4 5.3 34.1 5.6 34.3 5.3 40.4 3 f 8 33.7 5.5 46.5 52.9 84.7 90.6 1,013 1,137 1,099 1,263 1,321 1,306 1,275 1,326 1,371 1,506 1,508 23.2 80.8 89.4 92.1 87.7 91.2 91.8 87.7 Total starts are Census estimates including farm for both permit-issuing and noh-issuing areas. A dwelling unit is started when excavation begins; all units j in an apartment structure are considered started at that time. FHA and VA * starts are units started under commitments by these agencies to insure or guarantee the mortgages. As reported by FHA and VA, a unit is started when a field J office receives the first compliance inspection report, which is. made before footings are poured in some cases but normally after the foundations have been * completed. Other starts are derived as a residual, although total and FHA and £ VA starts are not strictly comparable in concept or timing; other starts inf elude both units financed by conventional mortgages and units without mortgages. • Building permits before January 1963 are Census estimates for about 10,000 areas ; identified as having a local building permit system in 1959. Estimates beginning^ January 1963 are for approximately 12,000 and beginning January 1967 13,000, or .» all known permit-issuing places. Unlike starts, seasonally adjusted building per' mits reflect direct adjustment for differences in the number of working days per i month, as well as other differences in timing and coverage. I 21 TABLE 16: Mortgage and Bond Yields FHA MORTGAGES SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON CONV. & FHA MORTGAGES 5.44 6.81 6.81 6.29 7.52 6.78 8.62 7.99 6.30 5.80 6.70 6.70 6.40 7.40 6.75 8.35 7.55 .23 .25 .30 .11 -.12 .12 -.27 .40 .13 5.25 4.41 5.82 6.51 5.18 6.79 6.15 8.75 6.91 1,.69 .77 1..16 1,.28 .27 1,.20 .26 1,.08 .13 9.16 9.11 9.07 9.01 8.97 8.90 8.55 8.60 8.60 8.50 8.50 8.45 -.61 -.51 -.47 -.51 -.47 -.45 9.11 8.63 8.48 8.42 8.63 8.34 .05 48 59 59 34 ,56 25-YEAR 30-YEAR 1970 - June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1 2 3 4 6.26 5.43 6.73 n. a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. NEW | SPREADi BETWEEN j Aaa COR- j YIELDS ON N EW | BORATE. ; CORPORATE BONDS j BONDS | AND 4 1 FHA MORTGAGES ! CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES 3 2 DATE 1959--60 T High 1961-•66 - Low 1966 - High 1967 - High - Low 1968 - High Low 1969 - High Low 1 Neither mortgage nor bond yields include allowance for servicing costs which are much higher for mortgages than for bonds. Generally, bonds pay interest semiannually; mortgages, monthly. Mortgage yields, if computed as equivalent to a semi-annual interest investment, would be slightly higher than given in the table. . Based on FHA-field-office opinions about average bid prices in the private secondary market.for new-home mortgages for immediate delivery. Separate data available for 25-year and—beginning July 1961—30-year mortgages with minimum downpayments, weighted by probable volume of transactions. "Yields computed by FHA, assuming prepayment period of 12 years for 25-year mortgages and 15 years for 30-year mortgages. Over the period for which they can be compared, the movement of the two mortgage yield series has been similar. Dashed lines indicate periods of adjustment to changes in contractual interest rates. Based on FHA-field-office opinion on typical "interest rates (rounded) on conventional first mortgages prevailing in the market areas of insuring office cities. Beginning with April 1960, rate relates only to new-home mortgages;, prior to that date, rate related to both new as well as existing-home mortgages. Dashed line indicates this change in the series. See note for Table 1. 22 TABLE 17: Conventional Mortgage Terms DATE NEW HOMES CON- FEES & TRACT CHARGES EFFEC-I MATURITY (PER RATE TIVE i (YEARS) CENT) RATE • (PER CENT) 2 3 i LOAN/ PRICE! LOAN RATIO | AMT. (PER ($000) CENT)J 4 1 EXISTING HOMES CON- FEES & LOAN/ TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATU- PRICE (PER RATE TIVE RITY RATIO (PER ; CENT) RATE (YEARS) (PER CENT) CENT) 2 3 r LOAN AMT. ($000) 4 1969 Nov. Dec. 25 .3 25,.4 i 7.97 8.07 0,.96 1,.06 8.13 8.25 8.16 8.23 8.29 18.23 8.28 8.31 8.32 8.35 8.31 8.33 8.25 1,.08 1,.09 1,.11 1.,02 0..98 0..99 1.,01 0.,98 1. 03 1.,05 0.99 8.34 25,.0 8.41 24,.2 8.47 25..0 8.40 24..8 8.45 25..3 8.48 25.,1 8.49 25.,1 8.52 24..8 8.48 25.,2 8.51 25.,1 8.41 • 25.,3 . 72,.8 71..9 24.6 25.0 8.00 8.08 0 .90 0 .93 8.15 8.24 22,.6 22..9 70.4 70.6 20.1 20.8 69..3 71.,8 71.,1 71.,1 71.,7 71.,3 71..5 71.,6 72. 7 72.,4 72.,0 25.1 24.9 25.1 24.5 25.3 25.6 24.9 25.5 25.3 24.8 25.3 8.13 8.23 8.26 8.20 8.18 8.19 8.21 8.25 8.27 8.20 8.17 0,.94 1,.02 0, 0..90 0..94 0..98 0.,95 0.,89 0..88 0.,88 0. 84 . 8.29 22.,4 8.41 22.,4 8.43 22.,6 8.35 22.,8 8.34 22.,8 8.36 23.,0 8.37 23.,1 8.41 23. 1 8.42 22. 8 8.35 . 22.,8 8.31 22. 7 70.3 70.2 70.4 70.4 70.3 71.5 71.5 71.7 71.7 71.5 71.6 20.5 20.4 20.6 20.4 21.1 21.5 21.7 21.4 21.0 20.5 ; 2i.i: 1970 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct.r/ Nov. i 1 Compiled by Federal Home Loan Bank Board in cooperation with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Data are weighted averages based on probability sample survey of characteristics of conventional first mortgages originated by major institutional lender groups (including mortgage companies) for purchase of single family homes. Data exclude loans for refinancing, reconditioning or modernization; construction loans to home-builders; and permanent loans which are coupled with construction loans to ownerbuilders. Related series on conventional mortgage rates only, based on unweighted opinions of field-office directors of the Federal Housing Administration, are available somewhat sooner than the results of the FHLBB-FDIC survey, and are included-in Che case of new home mortgage rates—in Table 16. Fees and charges--expressed as a percentage of the principal mortgage amount—include lcan^cornmissions, fees, discounts, and other charges which provide added income to the lender and are paid by the borrower. They exclude any closing costs related solely to transfer of property ownership. Includes fees & charges amortized over a 10 year period in addition to the contract interest rate. Derived by FRB.