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V DIVISION O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L F I N A N C E H. is No. 12lr \ \ ':V \ BOARD OF OOVKRNOR* > • ' • • • * ' I. II. III. "" I. October 2, 1963. CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ABROAD 1 \ \ ' ' Japan India Nine Charts on F i n a n c i a l Markets Abroad Japan; Money and C a p i t a l Markets i n August-September E f f e c t i v e August 29, t h e Government of Japan reduced t h e maximum p e r m i s s i b l e i n t e r e s t r a t e s which f o r e i g n exchange banks may pay on E u r o - d o l l a r d e p o s i t s . (See Table 1) 0 This i s designed t o discourage the i n f l o w of E u r o - d o l l a r f u n d s , which had been expanding a t an i n c r e a s i n g r a t e s i n c e t h e l e v e l of p e r m i t t e d i n t e r e s t r a t e s was i n c r e a s e d on J u l y 19. According t o t h e Kihon K e i z a i , o u t s t a n d i n g E u r o - d o l l a r d e p o s i t s r o s e from a low of $370 m i l l i o n a t the end of June t o $390 m i l l i o n a t t h e end of J u l y and f u r t h e r t o $ii20 m i l l i o n by August 20. I t a l s o r e p o r t s t h a t a l a r g e p a r t of t h e i n c r e a s e i s due t o t h e i n f l u x of s h o r t - t e r m E u r o - d o l l a r funds of Soviet o r i g i n . Table 1 . 'Japan: Term Less than 30 days 1 - 3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1 y e a r and over Maximum Authorized Rates on E u r o - d o l l a r Deposits [ i n p e r - c e n t per annum) Before July 19 3.875 lw000 iul25 1.375 L.625 J u l y 19-August 28 Current iul25 ii.250 1.375 1.625 it.875 3.875 U.125 1.375 1.625 it.875 The l a t e s t change a f f e c t s only E u r o - d o l l a r d e p o s i t s of 3 months or l e s s , This c a t e g o r y has been t h e major a r e a i n which t h e l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e s a r e found i n t o t a l E u r o - d o l l a r d e p o s i t s j i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e p r o p o r t i o n of t h e t o t a l i n t h i s category has r i s e n from 30 t o bO per c e n t . On August 31, t h e Japanese a u t h o r i t i e s a r e r e p o r t e d t o have f r e e d an a d d i t i o n a l 35 import i t e m s , i n c l u d i n g raw s u g a r , from d i r e c t r e s t r i c t i o n s . As a r e s u l t , the r a t i o of t r a d e l i b e r a l i z a t i o n has r i s e n t o 9 2 . 1 p e r c e n t . In August, imports ^ continued to i n c r e a s e but t h e r i s e was more than o f f s e t by a l a r g e export expansion. As a r e s u l t , t h e t r a d e d e f i c i t f e l l by $19 m i l l i o n . I n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e r v e s rose by $26 m i l l i o n i n August, and declined by $3 m i l l i o n i n September, New Japanese s e c u r i t y i s s u e s i n t h e U.S. t o t a l e d $27 m i l l i o n i n August; howe v e r , t h e r e were no r e p o r t e d i s s u e s i n September. U.S. bank loans to Japan r o s e by $3 m i l l i o n i n J u l y , a f t e r f a l l i n g by $29 m i l l i o n i n June. (See Table 2 ) . OFFICIAL USE ONLY (Decontrolled a f t e r 6 m o n t h s ) Table 2, Japan: S h o r t - jBnd Lon^-term B o r r o w i l , • _ Change dur5 np p e r i o d Ohanrc dvvir.r yr . ' tia.nk loan:ec,:rities. : 1/ 3/ ICO 30 512 7?2 Ji: 760 21? Ill 250 2; 353 273 IT -90 ..>• 16 ITl ' "17 -! 7 ^ 8 Y "? 11 2 i l 56 • 61 W T ~ ! TI'" ' ?*ay 116.2/ J.'J: ?0? ?0 -7i}J y. , },y 2? 36 n.-. 2l._ n.a. Short-term l i a b i l i t i e s t o U.S» banks, New s e c u r i t y f l o t a t i o n s . 1 re.Liminarv. *'-onny r r j k o t . Ca '.! lo^.n i - n , n e t I unchanged m Anpict d e s o i t e a net n i - n r c t .>0 - mone!.«r,' development.':. The expanr' 5 onai?r i n f l u e n c e in t. nf a ~?3 hi. 11 i - n incr-.'tr-r * -: 'ut v o .lannn loans ard r. Y ' b i l l i o n d e c l i n e in bank no- or 1" r.} rchlri 7 ~n ',rpf- rni • . o: > ot ~ b i l l i o n d e c l i n e '• n. Sank oV ,T'-^nv. • b')>r' and net Trc'Tin*:/ ?rc^"» "st.n of *-lb'3 b i l l i o n . c o I n t e r e s t r a t e s . The u n c o n d i t i o n a l call, loan r a t e ( f o r loans r-.;paya.ole a t a day 1 s n o t i c e ) remained unchanged a t 7 . 3 per c e n t during August and through the f i r s t t h r e e weeks of Seotember. The r a t e f o r overnight money remained a t o>?r r.rnt. The average i n t e r e s t r a t e on bank loans and v i s c o u n t s ontlnued it;.r>r. l.ino hi -n.n", (Hee i'-uilc 3 ) . The June r a t e of 7.75 per cent ivas the lowes 1. avr -o in + -'j:-oct n-cto :u i reccrt. . Table 3. Japan: Average Monthly I n t e r e s t Rat us on Bam< u v - a r f ^19 March .,1111a September -ecember J8 ".28 r.06 M l p .?? %lli P . OP IVdl j;y-; 7.92 7..'# R.00 r.?2 :: .2- V>* rco-jid.,- V"-. 8.23 K.np Rank loans and discount:- . !-tatiic rrev.it rose 1.7 dor. cmi. if J u l y , enr- >•- rwi a r i ne of 3 , 3 oer c e n t a y e a r e a r l i e r . This i s in l i n e with r.'ne fen o r a l tendency i n -''i vc uf n a s t seven months f o r bank c r e d i t t ? v* ih: a~. r. i.ast-cr,e ho an ,n the. cormsDonding months of 19^2. Tn J u l y , loans ant b i l l s discounted ?-.r-e ir ? . *r> d 1.O o e r c e n t , respectively, c:?m.j a r , e o »•/ » t b i n c r e a s e s of l . L and u . y u' r r . t u i d : i.y - 19b?, The r a t e of i n c r e a s e in secm-i t y h o l d i n r s iii J'lly 19(>3 was much s m a l l e r than a • y - a - " ' . ^ r v 0,1; nor cent as com oared to 1.6 p e r c e n t . L'euO: :• t.° ro:-:e by v . ? cent in c o n t r a s t t o a 0," <y-r cent i n c r e a s e a y e c r ear', i ^ r . 'I-:! OFFICIAL USE ONLY -3- The p r o p o r t i o n of bank l o a n s and d i s c o u n t s extended f o r purchases of equipment was 16.6 per c e n t in J u l y , s l i g h t l y higher than i n June, but s t i l l l e s s than t h e May r a t i o . Bond market. New i s s u e s o f . d o m e s t i c bonds t o t a l e d ¥117 b i l l i o n i n J u l y , down ¥2 b i l l i o n from June, b u t . s t i l l higher than a y e a r ago. New i s s u e s of p u b l i c c o r p o r a t e debentures t o t a l e d ¥25 b i l l i o n , ¥5 b i l l i o n more t h a n i n May. New i s s u e s of bank debentures t o t a l e d ¥73 b i l l i o n and i n d u s t r i a l debentures ¥20 b i l l i o n , marking a r i s e of ¥li b i l l i o n and a d e c l i n e of ¥3 b i l l i o n , r e s p e c t i v e l y , from the May level. The average y i e l d of government s e c u r i t i e s and p u b l i c c o r p o r a t i o n bonds was unchanged in J u l y , However, t h e y i e l d on i n d u s t r i a l bonds f e l l to i t s lowest l e v e l of t h e y e a r . Stock market. During J u l y and August, stock p r i c e s d e c l i n e d s t e a d i l y . This d e c l i n e was brought to a h a l t during the second week of September, a f t e r t h e Dow Jones s t o c k index had f a l l e n t o t h e y e a r ' s low of ¥1296. Between September 9 and 17, the p r i c e index r o s e by 8 p e r c e n t . However, t h i s sharp s p u r t i n p r i c e s was s h o r t - l i v e d , and by t h e end of the month stock p r i c e s were almost down t o the y e a r l y low. Table In Japan: 5 12 19 26 30 Dow Jones Average of 225 S t o c k s , F i r s t Section of Tokyo Stock Exchange ¥1,392 1,103 1,372 1,311 1,351 , Seoten.be r 2 9 17 23 30 , ¥l,3lili 1,295 1,1(02 1,356 1,301 1962 High Low ¥1,590 1,216 1963 High Low 1,63U 1,295 Foreign t r a d e . The s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d d e f i c i t on t r a d e account d e c l i n e d i n August from t h e very high J u l y l e v e l as e x p o r t s r o s e by 12 p e r cent and imports by 6 per c e n t . (See Table 5 ) . The reduced d e f i c i t , r e p r e s e n t i n g a n a m i a l r a t e of S i . 5 b i l l i o n , was s t i l l q u i t e s i z e a b l e i n comparison with previous months. The t r a d e d e f i c i t was running a t an annual r a t e of $1.2 b i l l i o n i n the second q u a r t e r of t h e y e a r and a t a r a t e of $0.9 b i l l i o n i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r . The t r a d e f i g u r e s i n Table 5 a r e based on customs r e t u r n s and have been s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d by f a c t o r s computed by t h e Board of Governors of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve System, Table 5 . Japan : I Imports Exports. Trade Balance I4.9I4. 378 -=uE 11 168 L08 T-50 Seasonally Adjusted Foreign Trade ( i n m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) 1962 III IV L52 i;28 -"TIT h6h hl9 - 99 I U88 Ui5 ^73 OFFICIAL USE ONLY XX 5U5 1»1»2 -103 1963 June 535 136 July 579 L36 ^10 Aug. 611 187 %12S Exchange /-^serves and c a p i t a l flows« I n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e r v e s d e c l i n e d by '33 m i l l i o n i n Seoternber to a l e v e l of 81,906 m i l l i o n , This follows a r i s e of $26 m i l l i o n i n August, Accordinr; t o p r r l i m i n a z y r e p o r t s , Japanese s h o r t - t e r m l i a b i l i t i e s t o U.S. banks rose by A 3 m i l l i o n i n July* (See Trblp 6 ) . as compared t o a $27 m i l l i o n d e c l i n e i n June, September, There have been no r e p o r t s of Japanese s e c u r i t y i s s u e s i n the U.S. during Table 6, Jan, Feb. Mar. S h o r t - t e r m Claims by U.S. Banks on Japan rin m i l l i o n s of U.S. d o ? l a r ) Aor. June JulySent. &SL 201 1959 168 260 22h 2h? 256 269 175 i960 362 l.?o 1.88 628 372 250 167 586 1961 875 1,3U1 952 1,069 1,159 1,196 1,272 1,335 1962 1,601 1,6P,5 1,778 1,775 1,762 1,758 , 1 , 7 6 5 ^ / 1,767 ^ 1 9 6 3 ^ 6 9 7 ] , 6 9 1 1 , 7 % 1 / 7 6 1,896 1,869^/ 1 , 8 7 2 - / NOTE: Data f o r 1962 and 1963 r e c e n t l y r e v i s e d , a / Preliminary, 262 660 1,288 1,711 Oct. 262 693 1,281 1,710 Nov. Dec. 275 321 806 711 1,292 1,528 1,662 1,710 Foreign exchange^ The yen s t r e n g t h e n e d i n the spot market towards t h e end of Aupust, but then weakened during the f i r s t h a l f of September. (See Table 7) • In the three-month forward market, t h e yen remained unchanged from August 22 through September 12, but a t a s l i g h t l y more d e p r e c i a t e d l e v e l than p r e v i o u s l y . The forward discount widened c o n s i d e r a b l y on August 29 as the spot r a t e was a p p r e c i a t e d , but narrowed t o e a r l i e r l e v e l s by mid-September. Table 7, Japan: Customer's T* T, Exchange Rates of Bank of Tokyo i n Tokyo Ten-dollar Spot Middle Rate Three-month forward middle rate , Forward discount i n p e r cent p e r annum July 26 362.35 362. S3 .20 Aug, 2 9 15 22 29 362.35 362.35 362.25 362.30 361.95 362.53 362.58 362.58 362.60 362.60 .20 .25 .36 .33 .72 5 12 362.20 362.30 362.60 362.60 .Ui .33 Seot. OFFICIAL USE ONLY ; OFFICIAL USE ONLY II. India: Money and C a p i t a l Markets During August 1963 During August, bank d e p o s i t s i n c r e a s e d . b u t more slowly than p r e v i o u s l y . Bank c r e d i t did not d e c l i n e as much as in July and t h e r e was a s l i g h t t i g h t e n i n g i n t h e market f o r s h o r t - t e r m money, although t h e c a l l money r a t e was s t i l l r e l a t i v e l y low. With e n l a r g e d f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s t h e banks g r e a t l y expanded t h e i r holdings of government s e c u r i t i e s . To do so, they a l s o i n c r e a s e d t h e i r borrowings from the Reserve Bank. The I n d i a n a u t h o r i t i e s withdrew some of t h e f i n a n c i a l r e s t r i c t i o n s put in e f f e c t a f t e r t h e Chinese invasion l a s t y e a r . The gold market was allowed t o reopen but t r a n s a c t i o n s comprised lh c a r a t gold i n s t e a d of b u l l i o n . The September m o d i f i c a t i o n of t h e Gold Control Rules i n e f f e c t removes a l a r g e p a r t of t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e gold t r a d e . O f f i c i a l d a t a i n d i c a t e a c o n t i n u a t i o n of the downward p r i c e t r e n d on g o l d . The Compulsory Deposit Scheme included i n t h e 1963-61i budget by former Finance M i n i s t e r Desai was rescinded on September 21, 1963, by t h e new Finance M i n i s t e r Kushnamachari. Stock p r i c e s remained depressed but s t a b l e during August. Money m a r k e t . The August r a t e on d a y - t o - d a y money was s l i g h t l y h i g h e r than t h e J u l y low. ("See Table 1 ) . The c a l l money r a t e f e l l t e m p o r a r i l y at t h e end of the month to 1,3b p e r c e n t , but i n c r e a s e d s h a r p l y i n the f i r s t p a r t of September. " ' Table 1 . India: Inter-Bank C a l l Money Rate in Bombay- Monthly average: 1962 June July August 2.88 1.80 2,20 1963 June July August 3.51 , 1,912/ S e l e c t e d d a t e s - 1963: August 2 9 1.00 2.8b 23 30 2.03 1,3b 16 a/ 2.66 Sentember 6 13 . 2.72 3.12 Average of F r i d a y s . Gold market. The m o d i f i c a t i o n of the Gold Control Rules on September 21, 1963, p e r m i t s making ornaments purer than l b c a r a t s from e x i s t i n g gold ornaments,. but not from new s t o c k s , ' On August 28, 1963, gold p r i c e q u o t a t i o n s were o f f i c i a l l y resumed. They i n d i c a t e a c o n t i n u a t i o n of the downward p r i c e t r e n d . " The average p r i c e i n June was $ 7 b . l 9 p e r f i n e ounce (converted a t p a r v a l u e ) , but on August 30, 1963, i t had f a l l e n t o the f i n e ounce e q u i v a l e n t of $71.b7, and on September 20, 1963, t o $67.05. In c o n t r a s t , the gold p r i c e had reached a. high of $82.82 p e r f i n e ounce i n August 1962o http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ I Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' OFFICIAL USE ONLY -6- Stock m a r k e t , Stock p r i c e s during August were s t a b i l i z e d a t a s l i g h t l y lower l e v e l t h a n i n J u l y (See Table 2) but i n t h e f i r s t two weeks of September t h e i n d e x i n c r e a s e d t o t h e May l e v e l . However, s t o c k p r i c e s c o n t i n u e t o -remain d e p r e s s e d a p p a r e n t l y due t o heavy t a x e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y on p r o f i t s . Table 2, India: P r i c e Index of V a r i a b l e Dividend I n d u s t r i a l S e c u r i t i e s : (1952-53 = 100) ~~ Monthly a v e r a g e : 1962 June 189.9 July • I8U0O August 187.0 . 1963 June July August l6l,5 162.2 l6l.li. S e l e c t e d d a t e s - 1963: August 3 10 17 2L 31 160,0 160,1 160,L 160.7 161.9 September 7 1U 163.3 16U.2 Banking developments« I n August t h e t r e n d of t h e p r e v i o u s t h r e e months c o n t i n u e d with some m o d i f i c a t i o n s : bank d e p o s i t s i n c r e a s e d , bank c r e d i t f e l l , h o l d i n - s of government s e c u r i t i e s r o s e s h a r o l y and borrowings from t h e Reserve Bank increased s l i g h t l y , (See Table 3) * T o t a l d e p o s i t s were 7*h p e r c e n t h i g h e r t h a n August 1962, In August 1963, bank d e p o s i t s r o s e by l e s s t h a n i n J u l y . The d e c l i n e i n bank c r e d i t was reduced in August» • I n c r e a s e d h o l d i n g s of government s e c u r i t i e s r o s e almost double t h a t of t h e p r e v i o u s month t This r e f l e c t s t h e i n f l u e n c e of t h e C e n t r a l Government's borrowing program f o r f i s c a l 1963-6L. Borrowrings from t h e Reserve Bank r e v e r s e d t h e d e c l i n ing t r e n d of t h e p a s t t h r e e summer months. Table 3« 1962 August 1963 June July August Deposits India: Scheduled Banks-Monthly Changes i n D e p o s i t s , Borrowing from Reserve Bank and P r i n c i p a l A s s e t s ( i n m i l l i o n s of r u p e e s ) Per c e n t Bank Per c e n t Holdings of Per c e n t Borrowings from Change C r e d i t Change Gov't S e c u r i t i e s Change Reserve Bank +21 + =1 +llli +387 +398 +230 +1,8 +1,9 +1.1 -238 -L35 -251 +8.2 -1.5 . -2.8 -lo7 +U02 + 6.1 +153 - +2L8 _+3L2 +738 + 3,9 + 5.2 +10,7 -1U9 - 12 + 50 Exchange r e s e r v e s 0 During August, I n d i a ' s i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e r v e s f e l l $13 million to m i l l i o n which i s not an u n u s u a l s e a s o n a l d e c l i n e when compared t o c o r r e s p o n d i n g changes i n t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r , (See T a b l e U). 0FFICIAL USE ONLY OrYIGIAL USiC ONLY Table h. I n d i a : I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Reserves -of Reserve Bank ( i n m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s - l a s t Friday of month) Month: June 1962 1963 h6b hh$ June July August 1|71 a$9 uii6 S e l e c t e d d a t e s - 1963: August ? 9 16 23 30 h$k LU8 LL6 163 Sentember 6 13 hb9 LS2 hhS Asia, A f r i c a and Latin America S e c t i o n . -""III. Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart Nine Charts on F i n a n c i a l Markets' Abroad 1 2 3 h 5 6 7 8 I n t e r 1st A r b i t r a g e , United States/Canada I n t e r e s t A r b i t r a g e , New York/London I n t e r e s t A r b i t r a g e f o r German Commercial Banks I n t e r e s t A r b i t r a g e , Frankfurt/London Short-term I n t e r e s t Rates Long-term Bond Yields I n d u s t r i a l Stock I n d i c e s Spot Exchange Rates Major Currencies Against U.S. D o l l a r Chart 9 - 3-month Forward Exchange Rates - : OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTEREST ARBITRAGE, UNITED STATES/CANADA Thursday < i g i 13-MONTH TREASURY BILL R A T E S , 1• 1 I.. . 1 .1 1 1 1 . 1 | RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L A N D F O R W A R D C A N A D I A N •—L ~L DOLLAR 1 Cj\J J G % u r* 1 S P R E A D IN FAVI 0 1 OF <I A N A D A + 1. 1 / W >\ j FOI W A | D _ | ATI !\ ID 4 " " I jf V 7 1 1 RATE i i i i 11 DIFFERENTIAL 11 WITH 1 1 1 1 FORWARD I | 1 1 m EXCHANGE I K r m i i br >/ ' V i i i i i i i i i COVER! NET I N C E N T I V E IN F A V O I Of CANADA + J_LL1- J . . i J LLL U rr fj IT I $ j $ f A INTEREST ARBITRAGE, 3-MONTH \ TREASURY ~ 1 NEW BILL R A T E S LONDON RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L A N D I 1 YORK/LONDON 1 L— L - RATE DIFFERENTIAL WITH 3-MONTH FORWARD . I— .. _L FORWARD . I- STERLING 1— l EXCHANGE COVER *- INTEREST ARBITRAGE FOR GERMAN COMMERCIAL BANKS Friday li 9 u 3-MONTH TREASURY -EURO-DOLLAR B I L L_S_£_I N T E R B A N K DEPOSIT GERMAN INTERBANK T LOAN RATE RATES EURO-DOUAR I DIFFERENTIAL AND FORWARD DIFFERENTIAL - ^ , DEUTSCHE WITH FORWARD EXCHANGE IN F A V O R Of F R A N K F U R T ( + ) rv Note: Special forward role available 10 German commercial banks 1 MARK DISCOUNT ( — ) - A INTERBANK LOAN RATE RATE RATE T -q: 1 0 N D 0 N = _ ' / V % r-' RATE LENDIN G T COVER \ AND INTEREST ARBITRAGE, Friday figures 3 — M O N T H TREASURY FRANKFURT BILLS AND / L O N D O N INTERBANK LENDING RATES ; i O A N RATE ~f\ ,1 GERMAN TREASURY I I U S RATE DIFFERENTIAL AND 3—MONTH FORWARD STERLING ^/~\\^GERMAN mASURV^IUS G E R M A N I N T E R B A N K L O A N . RATE RATE DIFFERENTIAL TH FORWARD V EXCHANGE COVER V— 1961 1962 1963 S H O R T - T E R M INTEREST RATES * I 1 V i V - v V K. V l i k — \ ' I I f \ j^LjttURO-D ? T • x l / V 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 /V-V N/1 i L___TGE**ANY i M 1 1 1 1 1 M i 1 1 I I 1 I I 1 II 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 i i i i r i i i U - U *-/*,! * 1 1962 "X" 3 month treasury bill r o i e i lor oil countries except Jopon I and Switzerland (3 month deposit r o l e ) ( Averoge role on bonk loom and discounts) 1963 L O N G - T E R M B O N D YIELDS 7 w 1960 1961 1962 J N D U S T R J A L S T O C K J N D I C E S I 19 5 8 = , 0 0 Ratio s t o l e GERMANY \ r 450 350 CANADA Xv-v-% 1960 Jopon: inde* of 2 2 5 i n d n l r i o l and olhet i l o c t i I r o d t d on ihe Tokyo exchange. iS P O T E X C H A N G E RATES - M A J O R CURRENCIES A G A I N S T U.S. DOLLAR Per t e n t A b o v por Below por Abov# por Below p a r Above p a r I T A L I A N LIRA 7 T If T T 7 7 A ' T O~ ~M D J TV A M 7 J A s "o N D J F ~M A M J J A S O' N D 3-MONTH FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE F r i d a y lig u re i AGAINST U. S. D O L L A R S POUND STIRLING AGAINST POUND STERLING - LPNDON PREMIUM + GERMAN M i l l — r AGAINST POUND STERLING* - L O N D O N I PRIMIUM + DUTCH OUIIDII I I I 0 1 AN FRANC UINCH nmc DISCOUNT 111! mi