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DIVISION O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L F I N A N C E B O A R D OF GOVERNORS H. 13 No, D49 May 20, 1961*. CAPITALJARKET DEVELOPMENTS ABROAD I, Unite^nCingdonT II, Nine Charts, on Financial Markets Abroad I. United Kingdoms Money and Capital Markets in April 196b British securities markets reacted strongly to the large budget, deficit for the fiscal year 196U-65, which was announced on April 15. The stock market overcame the sluggishness which set in after the February 27 increase in Bank •rate, and stock prices once again approached the high levels reached at the beginning of the year. The bond market was depressed, with yields rising to over 6 per cent for long-term and undated issues. (See Table 1 and Chart 6.) There was virtually no reaction to the bi^iget in the money market. Table It United Kingdom: Selected Money Market Indicators, I96I4 ~ (In per cent per annum) ~~ ~~~ MONEY MARKET Bank rate Treasury bill tender COVERED ARBITRAGE -™Tfavor U.k7)~" U.ZTyUTS: Treasury bills SECURITIES PRICES "{April 10, 1952=100) Industrial stocks Long-term Government Bonds GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS b/ W 1957 5% 1971 5-1/256 2008-12 2-l/2% Consols EXCHANGE RATES SpotTTlLS, cents) 3-month forward discount Jan. March 3 6 ~3 1,00 3,72 5.00 W o 5.00 1,30 -olU -j 02 JL17.5 1 1 3 . 6 109,2 IO5.-9 U.72 5.06 5.88 5,77. 5.08 5.U1 6.05 5.97 -ill April 10 17 5.00 U.30 -..OU 113.8 113.8 107.5 107.1 U.30 U.30 -..OS -.03 ->03 116.2 106.5 116.9 105.2 6.05 279,73 279.88 279.88 279.85 279.87 279.97 280.00 -.77 -.76 OFFICIAL USE ONLY (Decontrolled after six months) 5.00 5.39 116.8 IO5.3 6.0U Weekly averages. Previous Thursdays. 5.00 5.00 1.30 U.95 5.39 -.66 U.95 5.3U 5.95 5.89 5.00 May 1 U.97 5.U1 -,2U U.95 5.30 5.88 5.83 \_2U_ 6.00 6.00 -.76 6.10 -*76 6.10 -.76 OFFICIAL USE ONLY — 2 — The announcement on April 9 that the general election will not be held until Autumn contributed to the bouyancy of the stock market, This factor also contributed to a firming of the spot rate in the foreign exchange market. The pound regained the 280,00 U.S. cent parity on May 1. (See Table 1.) However, the discount on the 3-month pound was unchanged, The overall budget deficit estimated for the 196U-65 fiscal year (commencing on April l) is £791 million, compared with the £U78 million deficit realized under the "expansionary" budget for 1963-6U and the £56 million deficit realized under the "neutral" budget for 1962-63. (See Table 2.) Some £165 million of the estimated £313 million increase in the deficit reflects the inclusion in the new budget of Treasury borrowings to finance capital expenditures of local authorities which these bodies had hitherto borrowed in their own name.' Even if this sum is excluded from the budget total, however, the expected 196U-65 deficit would still amount to £626 million. Despite official efforts to raise funds outside the gilt-edged market, the prospective Treasury cash needs had a dampening effect on bond yields. On May 2, in its first financing operation in the current fiscal year, the Treasury issued a £14.00 million long-dated tap issue: a 5-3/U per cent Funding Loan, 1987-91. Apparently the Government chose a long-term issue primarily because the government broker is reported to have already on hand supplies of issues in the short-term range (the U per cent Exchequer Stock, 1968) and in the medium-term range (the 5-l/U per cent Funding Loan, 1978-80)• As has been done with other new government bond issues in recent years, the Funding Loan has been made attractive to foreigners by making it available in bearer form and by exempting non-residents from withholding taxes deducted at .. source, Sterling, which began to display a stronger tone in mid-March, continued to improve in April. Reserves in April increased by $53 million. However, the U.K,'s deteriorating trade balance (resulting from a more rapid increase in imports than in exports) suggests the possibility that sterling is presently being supported by an overseas sterling area payments surplus with non-sterling countries« ; Bank lending has continued to rise along with the rapid business expansion. Loans by the London clearing banks are estimated to have increased in April by about the same amount as in March (seasonally adjusted): £17 million. Exchequer finance. The Treasury will have to raise large sums to finance the estimated £791 million deficit. It has already taken action to raise a substantial portion of the Government's cash requirements outside the giltedged market. In particular, the Government has made non-marketable Government debt obligations more attractive to the public. A "National Development Bond" will be offered on May 15 with a 5 per cent coupon as contrasted with the U-l/2 per cent coupon currently offered on the Defense Bonds. Limits on the amounts of National Savings Certificates and Premium Bonds that one person may hold are OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY - 3 - being raised from £300 to £600 and from £800 to £1000, respectively* In addition, the Chancellor announced that the Treasury is working on a contractual savings program which "• • • will give an incentive for sustained saving over a period of years." Proceeds from non-marketable debt amounted to £309 million in 1960-61, £81; million in 1961-62 and £lU5 million in 1962-63. Table 2. United Kingdom: Financing the Government*s Budget-Deficit: 1960-61 through 196U-65 a/ (In millions of pounds) 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 Actual Actual Actual BUDGET DEFICIT EXCHEQUER FINANCING Extrabudgetary funds External transactions Bank of England Non-marketable debt Financing other than by sales of marketable debt Marketable debt Non-bank public Banking sector of which: Bends Treasury bills Financing by sales of marketable debt TOTAL FINANCING 1963-6U Actual 196U-65 Estimate -178 zl21 -380 -236 100 -297 266 . 309 193 73 1U3 81+ 75 23 -236 1U5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 378 1*93 7 n.a. 577 -575 -199 58 66 -17 n.a. (-306) (-269) 2 380 (- 63) (110) ( 5) (-127) -257 236 U9 56 b/(+12) n.a. —L78« -791 a/ Fiscal years end on March 31, but the figures for 1960-61 through 1962-63 are adjusted to coincide with the third Wednesday of March, the days on which the London clearing banks prepare their balance sheet. b/ London clearing banks only. " Money market. Money market conditions eased after March 31, with the end of the tax-gathering quarter. However, some intermittent Bank of England support was required in April, particularly towards the end of the month5 but the amount of Treasury bills purchases is reported to have been well-below the purchases required in March. The Treasury bill auction rate remained at U.30 per cent for ten consecutive weeks, from February 28 through May 1, (See Chart 1.) ' OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY - U - Euro-dollar rates eased during April, particularly oil the short end* The yield on call money fell from 3.81 per cent per annum on April 3 to 3.69 per cent per annum on May 2U. On the other hand, three-months and six-months deposit rates fell only by six points. They had remained unchanged from midMarch through April 3. (See Table 3 and Chart 2.) Table 3. Yields on Euro-dollar Deposits in London (In per cent per annum) Feb* Call 7-days 30-days 90-days 180-days 3*62 3*75 3.88 1*00 U*25 J&rch 13 3 3.81 U.00 U.12 U.25 U.UU 3.81 U.00 U.12 U.25 U.UU April 10 17 3.75 3.88 U.06 U.25 u.uu 3.75 3.88 U.06 U.25 U.38 May 2U 1 8 3.69 3.88 U.00 U.19 U.38 3.69 3.88 U.06 U.19 U.38 3.75 3.88 U.06 U.25 U.38 In the local authorities market, short-term rates eased seasonally after March 31. Towards the end of the month, rates became firmer. (See Table 10 and Charts 1 and 5») The local authority mortgage market revived by mid-April after over a month's inactivity due to uncertainties about the Public Works Loan Board lending rates which were to come into effect on April 1. Since mid-April considerable interest has been shown in mortgage loans repayable on one-month's notice after a term of eleven months at a yield of 5 - 3 A per cent* Arbitrage yield spreads. The covered U.S.-U.K. Treasury bill spread and the differential between 3-months local authorities deposits (fully hedged) and Euro-dollar deposits remained negligible in April* (See Table U and Chart 3.) The uncovered Treasury bill differential, however, widened from 6U basis points on March 26 to 73 basis points on April 2h, as the U.S. bill rate eased. (See ^ Table 10.) The gap between London Euro-dollar deposits and offering rates on negotiable certificates of time deposits of prime New York banks widened,, since the C/D rate fell while Euro-dollar yields held firm* Bond market. Bond prices fell following the announcement of the large 'budget deficit, and the market remained weak throughout the month. The long end of the market was more depressed than the short-end*. The yield on 2-1/2 per cent Consols, for example, rose steadily from £.89 per cent on April 9 to 6*05 per cent on April 30. The yield on the 5 per cent Exchequer 1967 bond, on the other hand, rose following the budget but then recovered its pre-budget level by April 30. (See Table 11 and Chart 6.) OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY - 5 - The weakness in the long end of the market continued in the first week of Maye This was, in part, a reaction to the new 5-3/U per cent tap issue being offered at 97, giving this bond a gross redemption yield of 5.98 per cent® This move led The Economist (May 2, 196k* pe 522) to observe that " e . • the authorities for the moment think of 6 per cent as the right long-term interest rate." Table Uo U.K./U.S. Short-term Money Market Yields and Yield Spreads (in per cent per annum) Jan. -3L TIME DEPOSITS (3-month) U„So dollars #.# NoYo - Certf. deposit London • Euro-$ Sterling (covered) Local authorities Finance Houses YIELD SPREADS (Favor U.K.) Treasury bills (3-month) c/ Uncovered ~~ Covered Euro—$ — NoYo C/D .a/ Euro-# - Local Authority (covered) 21 Feb. _28_, 1 9 6 U Iferch 26 April 10 J3L _A_ 3.88 3.8U 3.8U 3-9U U.06 U.12 3.95 L.25 3.95 3.95 1.25 i.25 3.88 3.85, U.25 U.25 3.97 U.01 1.53 3.85 3.85 U.35 Wil U.20 5.06 ho 9k u.20 U . 2 0 U.9U •Uo9U U.20 U . 2 0 .60 .12 .13 —<»l8 -o25 -.09 .22 ;22 •2U •6U -.07 .30 .66 .72 -.11 - o O U .30 .30 .71 .73 -.05 -.03 .Uo .37 .16 o0h. -.07 -.07 -.01 .13 - o i l .22 a7 Previous Wednesdays. ' " b/ Secondary market offering rates for negotiable certificates of time deposits0 "c/ UoSo and U0Ke bill rates are shown in Table 11, See also Chart 3« Dollar denominated loans. Two major dollar bonds were floated in London in April» Both were Danish loans, and both were placed privately— entirely with Continental investors, it is believed. A $25 million Kingdom of Denmark 5-1/2 per'cent 20 year issue was placed early in the month„ This was the largest dollar denominated loan issue to be placed in London since this type of lending began* Towards the end of April, a $10 million 5-3/U per cent 20 year bond was placed for the Jutland Telephone Company. (See Table So) Trading on this loan actually did not begin until May U. Negotiations are reported to be taking place for the underwriting of a $15 million bond issue by a Japanese corporation and of a $25 million Government of Norway bond issue. OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 5« -Issue Date 15 23 February 6 17 13 March 10 2k 26 26 April May U*S0 Dollar Loans Floated in London, 1961+ Borrowers January 6 h Norges Kommunalbank Government of Austria Wofson Clore Mayer Corp*(Israel) City of Oslo Copenhagen Telephone Co* (Denmark) Teijin Kabushki Kaisha (Japan) Aktieselskabet Tyssefaldene (Norway) C* Itoh and Co* (Japan) Taisho Marine and Fire Insurance Co* (Japan) Kingdom of Denmark Jutland Telephone Co* (Denmark) ^ - 6 - Coupon Maturity 5-3A£ 6% 6-1/2% 197U-8U 1979-8L 1983-88 1979 1981 197U-8U 197U-8U 198 U 5-3A2 6-1/1$ 6% 6 - W (Common Stock) 5-1/2* 198U xJ£8U 5-3A% Value ($Mrs) 10 o0 18 „0 5o0 i5.o 12 o0 10.0 10,0 10*0 2.0 25.0 10*0 . Stock market* After the budget was announced on April 15, stock prices rose by nearly 2 per cent in the remaining hours of trading on that day* This brought stock prices hack to the early January level* (See Table 12 and Chart 7») The sharp recovery followed a six week period of sluggishness as the Bank rate change was interpreted as signalling a move on the part of the Government to slow down the rate of economic expansion* The budget, on the other hand, was interpreted as being expansionary; and the market revived accordinglyo London clearing banks* Bank lending to the private sector of the economy has continued to expand although not as rapidly as it had earlier in the fear: .Seasonally adjusted advances increased in April by the same amount aS It ^ a p e " : £17 milliono (See Table 6*) After the end of the first quarter3 whem bank liquidity was strained owing to the -seasonal increase in. loans and to heavy tax payments, the liquidity ratio rose from 29*7 to 30oU per cent of gross depositso ' The limited Treasury borrowing from the banks explains the pressure on bank liquidity that wasvexperienced last year, when the minimum customary liquidity ratio was reduced from 30*0 per cent to 28.0 per cent in October 1963. During the last three fiscal years, the London clearing banks reduced their holdings of marketable government debt (including loans to the discount market) by £82 million* Instalment credit* New credit extended by department stores in January and February declined less than seasonally, according to. the Board of Tradeo (See Table 7 .) New credit extended by finance houses rose sharply« These developments have accompanied increased consumer expenditure—manifested in a rise in retail sales and expanding purchases of automobiles* OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 6« - 7 ~ London Clearing Banks: Net Deposits and April 1961 through April 196U (In millions of pounds) C h a n g e s 1961- 19621963Feb, 1962 1963 196L Selected Assets, " ~ ; ! / 1 96 U toirch Outstanding April 15iSpril 196U LOANS TO PUBLIC vs. PRIVATE SECTORS Claims on Public Sector Bonds Treasury bills and loans to the discount market Exchequer finance Loans to nationalized industries -90 +137 -U2 - 6U +hk -131 +12 -313 -1|6 + 6 -30 -377 12 + 11 - 8 + 17 +L53 Total claims on public sector Claims on Private Sector Advances (netJ 2/ ~L Other Total claims on private sector +58 — +117 +191 SPECIAL DEPOSITS AT BANK OF ENGLAND +77 -220 LIQUIDITY RATIO (end period) 32,6 30.5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: Deposits (net) Advances 2/ +106 +58 +276 +U53 +k9 1,266 -91 +U9 2,315 ' + 6 -10 - 8 60 Z# -371 -101 +385 +52 +15U - 7 +57 +I4.6 + 7 +29 1,155 713 +U37 +1U7 +103 +36 k,868 -- M -- —— -- 29.7 29,9 29,7 30.U +UU8 +385 -2L7 + 65 +15 +17 17 Fiscal years commencing April 1, 2/ Excluding loans to nationalized industries, 3/ Preliminary, 1,079 -32 OFFICIAL USE ONLY 3/ *79 1/ *17 2,105 -- OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 7» United Kingdom: Instalment Credit (end of period) Outstanding 196U Jan. Feb. Feb. 29, 1962 Ifear 1963 Nov. Dec. 139 91 1U5 129 1U0 157 1U5 129 ~ 110 17 U f 9 -h9 3Ho +22 +15 ^7 + 5 + 3 T"B +11 - h - 1 + u + 3 New Credit Extended, Index of value (1957=100) Department stores Finance houses Credit Outstanding (£ millions) Household goods shops Finance houses Total — 107 18U ' - 1 +13 +12 338 631 959 Table 8, United Kingdom; Foreign Trade (Millions of pounds; seasonally adjusted; monthly averages) 1st, Qtr. 1963 2nd 3rd Qtr. Qtr. 126 1U1 200 53 373 56 393 327 335 1961; Uth. Qtr. Qtr^ Jan.-/ Feb. 1U8 1U3 150 157 151 1U3 209 220 233 233 231 235 57 I02- 59 H22 69 66 W! 66 H5o Ik 3U6 3U8 b/356 373 f&rch Imports, c.ioK / ' ° — ' tobacco Fuels and industrial materials Finished manufactures and other Total.a/ Trade balance, balance of payments basis c/ 12 b/326 369 • 12 11 11 I, Exports, f.o.b. -R6-exports, f.o.b. Trade balance, . customs returns " 13 _13 -36 -U7 -53 -61 b/-120 -70 -65 + 7 - 2 - 9 -11 b/-35 b/ -73 -15 -17 b/ The January export figure is not comparable to those for other months owing to a change in the technique of compilation. c/ Customs returns adjusted for valuation and coverage, mainly revaluing imports from a c.i.f. to an f.o.b. basis, I96L figures are preliminary and are subject to substantial revisions. OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY - 9 - Foreign trade. The trade deficit was about as large in March as it was in February. (See Table 8 , ) Imports in the first quarter of I96I4. have leveled off * Imports of food, beverages and tobacco fell to the fourth quarter 1 9 6 3 level, out this was offset by increased imports of fuels and industrial materials (associated with inventory investment) and finished manufactures. Exports in March were maintained at the high level achieved in February0 The February-March average was 6-1/2 per cent above the fourth quarter level. Foreign exchange market. Sterling has strengthened since mid-March, and this has been reflected in a steady rise in the spot rate. (See Table 11 and Chart 8.) <• Sterling eased slightly in the first half of April, owing partly to uncertainties about the budget, but the spot rate continued its upward trend in the following week, reaching 280.00 on May 1, The three-month forward discount remained steady at 0.76 per cent per annum throughout April. (See Table 10 and Chart 9.) The investment dollar premium fluctuated between 11 and 11-1/2 per cent in April. Gold and foreign exchange reserves. With the strengthening of sterling in the foreign exchange markets, the United Kingdom's reserves increased by $3U million in March and $53 million in April, bringing total gold and foreign exchange reserves up to $2,713 million on April 30. (See Table 9») British drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund have remained virtually unchanged in recent months, as there have been few transactions in sterling* As of March 31, U.K.'s IMF drawing rights amounted to $2,UU0 million. Table 9. United Kingdom: Reserve Position (in millions of U.S. dollars) 1963 Year Dec. A. Gold and convertible currencies Less: Central bank loans Less: U.S. opns, in sterling b/ Adjusted Reserves B. Drawing rights on IMF Total Changes: Jan. 196k Feb. fferch April -1U9 a/— -115 +17 -U8 —•— —— - —— + 33 ^IB2 - 10 z-12 -195 — -115 MM — +17 -H5 +3L +53 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. - 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. Outstanding April 30, 1963 2,713 c/2,UU0 57 Covers $250 million assistance received in February and March"and repaid in June. b/ As published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, September 1963, and March 196I4. c/ As of March 31, 196U, . OFFICIAL USE ONLY - 10 - Bullion market» Large Russian gold sales in London were reported early, in April but by contrast with earlier instances when Soviet marketings have depressed the gold price in London, a strong demand for gold kept the fix ing price around $35,080 per fine ounce. No additional major Russian gold sales were reported for the rest of the month» Demand for gold varied from light to moderate, and the fixing price fluctuated between $35*070 and $35,085 (See Table 10.) Table 10. London Fixing Price for Gold (in U.S. dollars per fine ounce) February lU 20 March 28 6 35.076 35.079 March JL3 35.096 April 35.080 20 26 3 35*077 35.060 35.08-1 35.082 April 10 17 2h May 1 35.071 35.081 35.085 35.071 Europe and British Commonwealth Section lie Nine Charts on Financial Markets Abroad Chart 1 - International Money Market Yields for U.S. Dollar Investors Chart 2 - Interest Arbitrage, United States/Canada Chart 3 - Interest Arbitrage, New York/London Chart U - Interest Arbitrage for German Commercial Banks Chart 5 - Short-term Interest Rates Chart 6 - Long-term Bond Yields Chart 7 - Industrial Stock Indices Chart 8 - Spot Exchange Rates - Major Currencies Against U.S. Dollar Chart 9 - 3-month Forward Exchange Rates OFFICIAL USE ONLY — 11 — Table 11.- United Kingdom? 1 CTT 1963 High . Low 196U Jam Feb, . 31 7 lU 21 28 March 6 13 20 26 April 3 10 17 2k May 1 y iry bill b: arbitrage calculation Treasur U.S. DifferIn - favor - — W Jheo, o T pound U X . bill 3.58 3.31 >32 >85 3.61 3.U8 3oU9 3.50 3.52 3,56 3.52 .53 .52 .52 =>50 ,UU «U5. 3.U3 3.U3 3.6U 3.6U 3.6U U.16 Uel6 U.16 U.16 U0I6 U.16 Ud6 U.16 U»l6 U0I6 Treasury Bill Yields and Exchange Bates .26 -0O3 •U6 -1.08 .13 -•31 -eUU -«U5 -•37 -069 -,66 -.65 -.71 -.71 -,77 -.76 -.76 -.76 -.76 ,12 .60 06U .63 06U' •6U •66 o72 .71 .73 .73 +.23 —.62 280.59 279.59 U.62 3.56 U.88 U.06 —.18 279.77 279.78 279.7U 279.U3 279.77 279.78 279.78 279.82 279.81 279.88 279.85 279.87 279.97 280,00 Uol2 U.00 U.00 U.06 U.12 U.31 U.25 U.25U.25 U.25 U.25 U.25 U.19 U.19 U.38 U.38 U.38 U.38 5.19 5.12 5.00 5.12 5.12 5.06 U.9U_. U.9U U.9U 5.00 -.29 -.31 -.25 -.09 -.02 — .02 -.07 -.07 -oil -»0U -.OS -.03 -.03 Certified N„I., noon buying rate. Table 12* United Kingdom: ! 52 19<?7 11963 , High Low 196U JanFeb,. 30 6 13 20 27 March £ 12 19 25 April 2 9 16 23 30 y Spot London deposit rates pound U.S. Local (U.S. . dollar authority cents)-/ (3-mo.) 5=02 It.38 It , 7 0 U.75 U.75 U.88 5.15 5.08 . 5.08 5.00 U.97 U.95 u>95 5.00 u.97 u.95. Selected Capital Market Yields TJ.K. Government b m d yields A-l/% 3-1/2f 5-1/2$ 3S 1965-75 2 0 0 8 - 1 2 War Loan Consols Share yield 5.UU U.76 6.00 5.U5 6.12 5.68 5.98 5.39 5.06 U.13 5,26 5.27 5.29 5,Ui 5.51 5,52 5-50 5.U7 5.U3 5.U3 5.U9 5-55 5.57 5.57 5.93 5.92 5.95 6,05 6.10 6.05 6.00 5*98 5.95 5.88 5.95 6,00 6,10 6,10 6.00 6.03 6,05 6*18 6.21 6.15 *6,10 60.06 6.05 5.95 6,02 6.12 6.19 6.17 5.86 5.88 5.91 6.02 6.08 5.97 5.95 5.92 5.90 5.83 5.89 6.00 6.0U 6.05 U.U3 U.U6 U.39 U.U5 U.U2 U.35 U.3U U.37 u.38 u.29 U.Ul u.29 u.31 u.31 Yield gap Share prices 117.2 95.6 1.U3 1.U2 1*52 1.57 1.66 1,62 I061 1,55 1,52 1.5U leU8 1.71 1.73 1.7U 110.3 109.2 111.0 110.U 111.U 113,2 113.8 113.7 113.3 . 113.6 113.U 11602 116.8 116,9 1 , Share prices are wkly,avgs» Difference between yield on 2-1/2 per cent Consols and share yield. .Chart 1 INTERNATIONAL 3-MONTH Wednesday MONEY EURO-DOLLAR MARKET DEPOSIT YIELDS FOR U.S. VS. CERTIFICATE DOLLAR OF INVESTORS DEPOSIT figures Per YIELDS N E W YORK friday figures OFFER . RATES ON SELECTED | TREASURY COMMERCIAL 3-MONTH +™ BILLS - F u l l y INVESTMENTS H e d g e d CANADA PAPER-Fully p . H e d g e d 'CANADIAN FINANCE COMPANY T- r" . ft K/vl^—L 1964 cent per annum INTEREST ARBITRAGE, 3-MONTH RATE TREASURY DIFFERENTIAL UNITED BILL AND STATES / CANADA RATES FORWARD CANADIAN DOLLAR S P R E A D IN F A V O R O F C A N A D A + r RATE r~ I DIFFERENTIAL I WITH r I 1 FORWARD 71 n EXCHANGE N E T I N C E N T I V E IN F A V O R O F C A N A D A I 1 I I I I I I I 1 COVER PI- + i LlJ .1 I i 1 i 1 1 1 1 M I I I I I I I i I I 0 M J 1963 S D M J $ 1964 D v\ INTEREST Friday ARBITHAOE. NEW Y O R K / L O N D O N figures 3-MONTH TREASURY ' I BILL RATES I U.K. l O C i l AUTHORITY DEPOSITS NEW V 0 8 * RATE Dl n n n ^ ^ n ^ ^ r i ^ T F i n w ^ n r F H i i ^ R W A R D s t e r l i n g t r 8 | * D IN F A V O R OF L O N D O N F O R W A R D RATE Discount RATI" DIFFERENTIAL WITH FORWARD EXCHANGE IN f A V O R O F L O N D O N I A V 0 R OF NEW Y O R K COVER INTEREST ARBITRAGE 3-MONTH FOR TREASURY GERMAN BILLS, " EUR O - D O LL A R D E P O S I T COMMERCIAL INTERBANK LENDING RATES BANKS RATE I AND | GERMAN INTERBANK GERMAN TREASURY BILLS f RATE j r DIFFERENTIAL | AND | r i FORWARD DEUTSCHE FORWARD EXCHANGE MARK S P R E A D IN F A V O R OF F R A N K F U R T ! RATE DIFFERENTIAL NET I N C E N T I V E : WITH 1 COVER IN F A V O R OF F R A N K F U R T ( + ) TREASURY 8 I U S M J S 1962 D M J 1963 S D M i ' S 0 19 64 n i SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES * 'EURO-DOLLAR • LONDON JAPAN r,3-month Ireotury bill roles for oil except Japan. (Average r rt bank loans and discount*) I LONG-TERM BOND YIELDS r Vx--z Y* Ch .^-'L7. INDUSTRIAL .~ . STOCK INDICES ,959=100 Hollo n o l > ' y.^v-Z jut ISO ! 450' i 350 n«62 New lariat. Swiii Bank Corporation industrial Hock index. hopan: index of 2 2 5 induilriol and olher Uocki traded on the Tokyo exchange. f' SPOT EXCHANGE RATES - M A J O R CURRENCIES AGAINST U.S. FRENCH FRANC DOLLAR Pe , «.„» A b o^ t poT 3-MONTH FORWARD .Fri<f °y <'9uras AGAINST U.S. EXCHANGE RATE DOLLARS DISCOUNT- AGAINST POUND STERLING - LONDON P R E M I U M 4- AGAINST POUND STERLING - LONDON PREMIUM + rf]r\ FRENCH FRANC L / W 1964