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DIVISION O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L F I N A N C E BOARD O F G O V E R N O R * January 25* 1963 CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ABROAD LIBRARY JAN 30 13% I* .Germany I I , Nine Charts on Financial Markets Abroad rKDER.ll RHSFRVC r.f, or RICHMOND 1! Germany: Money and C a p i t a l Markets in. December 1962 Despite an admonition from the Bundesbank t h a t the t r a d i t i o n a l year-end p r a c t i c e of window-dressing was " u n d e s i r a b l e , " t h e commercial banks s h i f t e d s u b s t a n t i a l funds i n t o Germany during December and then proceeded t o r e b u i l d money-market holdings abroad i n e a r l y January<> The banks r e p o r t e d l y a l s o borrowed funds abroad both t o improve t h e i r l i q u i d i t y r a t i o s and to r a i s e t h e i r balance-sheet t o t a l a s s e t s and l i a b i l i t i e s 0 Perhaps as much as $100 m i l l i o n was r e p a t r i a t e d from abroad i n the f i r s t half of December alone The F r a n k f u r t money market experienced continuing demand f o r funds as the year-end approachedo Day-to-day loan r a t e s climbed s t e a d i l y from about 2 - 3-1/8 per cent i n l a t e November t o 3 - U per cent i n l a t e December and year-end money was quoted a t 5-1/2 - 6 per c e n t . Rates on 3-month i n t e r - b a n k loans remained a t between U-l/U and U-l/2 per cent during November and December. In e a r l y January, funds were s h i f t e d t o the Euro-dollar market i n London; on January k , f o r example, the spread i n fa vor of E u r o - d o l l a r d e p o s i t s over i n t e r - b a n k loans i n F r a n k f u r t was 0.85 per c e n t (see Table 5 and Chart 5) and forward cover was a v a i l a b l e i n the market a t only 0.U0 per cent (see Table 5)» Large r e s e r v e d e c l i n e s r e p o r t e d by the Bundesbank i n e a r l y January i n d i c a t e d t h a t the German banks were moving s u b s t a n t i a l funds back i n t o the E u r o - d o l l a r market. On January 7 the Bundesbank increased i t s charge f o r forward cover t o the banks from 0»50 t o 0.75 per c e n t , but the market r a t e remained a t 0.U0 per c e n t . However, a sharp drop i n Eurod o l l a r r a t e s i n t h e week of January 7-11 m a t e r i a l l y reduced the i n c e n t i v e s to continue t o s h i f t funds to London» The tone of the bond market improved during the l a t t e r p a r t of December and y i e l d s on long-term f i x e d - i n t e r e s t s e c u r i t i e s eased below 6 per cent f o r the f i r s t time i n s i x months«, The 5=1/2 per cent Railway bond dropped from 6»lU per cent a t t h e end of November t o 5°97 per cent i n the second week i n January c By the end of December, some r e c e n t i n d u s t r i a l i s s u e s were no longer being quoted a t below~par p r i c e s 0 The strengthening of the bond market i n p a r t r e f l e c t e d t r a n s f e r s of funds from the stock market where the stock p r i c e index declined from 17U on November 30 t o 163 on December 19 and t o 159 on January l5o I n December, a DM 250 m i l l i o n Railways bond with a 6 per cent coupon was placed a t p a r . In OFFICIAL USE ONLY DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS . 2- OFFICIAL USE ONLY the f i r s t week i n January s the a u t h o r i t i e s marketed a DM UOO m i l l i o n Federal loan a t 6 per cent and took advantage of the improved conditions to lengthen t h e term t o 15 years compared with a 10-year maturity on the preceding o f f e r i n g i n e a r l y December» In the l i g h t of the improved bond market s the Central Capital Market Committee has urged t h a t new i s s u e s t o t a l l i n g $1*2 b i l l i o n be placed on the market i n January and February t o f o r e s t a l l a temporary drop i n market y i e l d s below 6 per cento At the beginning of l ? 6 l and again i n 1962, bond y i e l d s f e l l below 6 per c e n t and market volume was adversely a f f e c t e d o I t i s estimated t h a t perhaps UO per cent of t h e F e d e r a l loan i n January was taken up by f o r e i g n i n v e s t o r s e The l a t e s t German balance«ofpayments s t a t i s t i c s show only a modest n e t inflow of funds i n t o German s e c u r i t i e s during October and November0 Net s e c u r i t y t r a n s a c t i o n s ( i n m i l l i o n s of D-marks) in 1962 were? German s e c u r i t i e s purchased by f o r e i g n e r s ( n e t ) Foreign s e c u r i t i e s purchased(°) by Germans (net) Net inflow of c a p i t a l to German s e c u r i t i e s market a/ Jan.Mar0 Apr 0 June July Sept. 523 198 358 °3Uo -168 - 23 183 30 335 ) ) ) ) Oct, Nov0 107 102 a/107 a/102 Includes a l s o other net p r i v a t e c a p i t a l » The Federal Government has announced i t w i l l f l o a t a DM 25>0 m i l l i o n loan i n 1963 t o f u l f i l l i t s o b l i g a t i o n s i n the area of development a i d . Secretary of S t a t e Vialon voiced the government's hope of placing p a r t of t h i s i s s u e on f o r e i g n markets 0 In December s Germany announced a DM U70 m i l l i o n loan t o India to be used t o finance Indian i n d u s t r i a l p r o j e c t s . Money marketo Money market conditions were easy i n November but tightened continuously throughout December as the year-end approached» (See Tables 1 and 5 ) 0 The monetary ease i n November i s ascribed t o the reduced s h i f t o f - f u n d s by commercial banks t o money markets abroad e In December^ i n t e r e s t r a t e s moved up as the commercial banks b u i l t up t h e i r l i q u i d i t y p o s i t i o n s i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r year-end window-dressing o p e r a t i o n s . Money was a l s o t i g h t because of an unusual p u b l i c demand f o r cash i n a n t i c i p a t i o n of the December 31 property t a x assessment d a t e . Under the law 9 bank d e p o s i t s are included i n personal property and the assessed values are e f f e c t i v e f o r the next t h r e e years„ (See: F r a n k f u r t e r Allgemeine Zeitung, December 20, 1962s pQ 11) In December5, the commercial banks were a l s o making c a l l loans t o the E u r o d o l l a r market a t the same time as funds were being brought i n from abroad because r a t e s on U0S0 d o l l a r d e p o s i t s i n London were so a t t r a c t i v e o (See Table 5„) OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ 3 = OFFICIAL USE ONLY On December 7, the Bundesbank increased i t s buying p r i c e of commercial paper t o t h e l e v e l of i t s s e l l i n g p r i c e not only t o discourage commercial banks from borrowing funds on f o r e i g n money markets but a l s o t o esse c r e d i t conditions a t home. Table lo Money Market Rates i n F r a n k f u r t , November and December (in per cent per annum) Day-to-day money Nov., 1-7 8-15 16-23 2U-30 Dbc o 1-7 8-15 16-23 21+-28 End of year money 2«- 3 / a 2=1/1 2-1/8 2 3 3 , 3-1/8 3 5-1/2 2 -- 3 A " 3 , - .3-1/8 - 3-1/8 - 3 ™l/8 - h - b Three month loans U-i/U L-3/8 U-l/U ii-i/U U-1/I4 U-i/U UrlA L-3/8 - U-1/2 - U-3/8 - U-1/2 - 6 Bond marketo The German bond market strengthened during the l a s t half of December and the f i r s t half of January 0 (See Chart 6 e ) The c l i m a t e " of t h e market d e f i n i t e l y improved during* the month of Decembero U n t i l midDecember medium-term, non-bonded loans ("Schuldscheindarlehnen") bearing 6-l/U per cent i n t e r e s t per annum could not be placed above 98 per cent of par5 a f t e r mid-December such loans were being placed a t 99 per cent of par and y i e l d s were r e p o r t e d to be comfortably below the mid-November l e v e l of 6o5 per cento (See Chart 6„) Banks are g e n e r a l l y s a t i s f i e d with t h e 1962 trade i n these medium-term notes„ The market was more orde rl y i n 1962 than in 1961 because the very l a r g e i n d u s t r i e s who d i s r u p t e d the market with bond i s s u e s i n 1961 secured a g r e a t e r p a r t of t h e i r financing on the stock exchange, leaving the Schuldschein market t o t h e t r a d i t i o n a l customers % m u n i c i p a l i t i e s 5 small and medium-sized f i r m s , and c e r t a i n branches of the Federal Government0 Yields on long-term f i x e d - i n t e r e s t bearing s e c u r i t i e s eased below 6 per cent f o r the f i r s t time i n s i x months „ The 5^1/2 per cent Railway Bond i s s u e dropped 17 b a s i s p o i n t s from the end of November t o the second week i n January t o 5«97 per cento By the end of December some r e c e n t i n d u s t r i a l i s s u e s were being quoted above par i n c o n t r a s t t o the below-par quotations of r e c e n t months 0 (See Table 6 . ) OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL "JSE ONLY Table 2@ Gross Placements i n German S e c u r i t y Markets ( i n m i l l i o n s of DMS monthly or monthly average) "Occasional"-borrowers' bonds2 Industrial Public authorityForeign i s s u e r s Other bonds a / Total Mortgage and communal bonds -Total gross bond placements b / Gross share placements~ Total security placements at issue value I 1961 III II IV I 11 1962 I I I Octo Novo 79 117 211 112 72 3lU 136 32 - 89 132 15U _U8 79 lUl 213 5U7 3U0 6 2 5 _ 397 219 526 1,107 525 735 U71 U06 3o5 3gU 263 352 1,U61 999 957 8U6 39 UUl 16 78 101 581 8U U6U 5o « 130 i M w 185 205 113 358 uo 309 139 1 1 , 0 172 121 1 , 3 9 7 998 1 , 3 2 9 989 i y 768 a7"~Tfostly bonds of s p e c i a l i z e d c r e d i t i n s t i t u t i o n s s e s p e c i a l l y i n 1961. b / Includes medium-term notes' (Kassenobligationen) <, During 1962 ^ s a l e s of f i x e d - i n t e r e s t bearing s e c u r i t i e s on the German c a p i t a l market t o t a l e d more than DM 12 b i l l i o n ^ an increase of 25 per cent or approximately DM 2,U b i l l i o n more than the 1961 t o t a l 0 The Bundesbank estimates t h a t the i s s u e of i n t e r e s t - b e a r i n g s e c u r i t i e s financed 22 or 23 per cent of t o t a l new investment i n 19620 The r e c e n t strengthening of the bond market has been due in p a r t t o the t r a n s f e r of funds from the stock marketo Considerable support has been l e n t by l a r g e - s c a l e purchases of r e c e n t f l o t a t i o n s by f o r e i g n e r s who have been attracted by the high r e t u r n s on German s e c u r i t i e s 5 i n Europe 9 Austrian s e c u r i t i e s axone o f f e r a higher r a t e of r e t u r n on investment„ The Central Capital Market Committee has decided t o hold the ' i n t e r e s t r a t e a t the 6 per cent .level 0 In both 1961 and 1962 the r a t e f e l l below 6 per cent e a r l y i n the year only t o s u f f e r a setback i n t h e spring which adversely a f f e c t e d market volume f o r months» To support the 6 per cent i n t e r e s t r a t e , the Central Committee i s urging new "occasional" borrowers' i s s u e s t o t a l i n g DM 1„2 b i l l i o n onto the market during January and February, This t o t a l includes f l o t a t i o n s of DM 800 m i l l i o n by p u b l i c a u t h o r i t i e s and DM I4.OO m i l l i o n of i n d u s t r i a l i s s u e s 0 In the f i r s t week in January <, a 6 per cent DM I4.OO m i l l i o n Federal loan was immediately oversubscribed,, The government took advantage of the improved market conditions t o lengthen the time to maturity to 15 years 0 OFFICIAL USE ONLY - 5 = OFFICIAL USE ONLY In October and December the government had been f o r c e d t o s h o r t e n t o 10 y e a r s the time t o m a t u r i t y t o i n s u r e f u l l s u b s c r i p t i o n of i s s u e s a t p a r under the t h e n e x i s t i n g market c o n d i t i o n s , Redemption i s scheduled t o begin a f t e r the f i f t h y e a r and the l o a n i s n o n - r e c a l l a b l e f o r t e n y e a r s . Foreign i n v e s t o r s subscribed UO per c e n t of the issue® Stock m a r k e t . P r i c e s on the German s t o c k market r o s e s t e a d i l y during November and by the beginning of December the F r a n k f u r t e r Allgemeine g e n e r a l index stood 30 p e r cent above the October 12th low p o i n t of 132» (See Chart 7 . ) The r i s e i n stock p r i c e index came to a h a l t on November 30 a t 17U, as e n d - o f - y e a r s a l e s n e c e s s i t a t e d by t a x payments and bank l i q u i d i t y requirements depressed t h e market. The s t o c k index s l i p p e d g r a d u a l l y t o 163 on December 19; a f t e r r e c o v e r i n g s l i g h t l y during t h e remainder of the month, i t continued t o weaken t o 15>9 on January l £ , d e s p i t e t h e s t r e n g t h e n i n g of p r i c e s on Wall S t r e e t . Rumors of a t a x i n c r e a s e , although o f f i c i a l l y d e n i e d , and an a s s e r t i o n by unions t h a t t h e y i n t e n d t o pursue a more a g g r e s s i v e wage p o l i c y i n 1963 a r e s a i d t o have caused i n v e s t o r s t o withdraw from the market. Trading has taken p l a c e on a t h i n market. ^ German f o r e i g n t r a d e . Because of an unusual bulge i n m i l i t a r y i m p o r t s , t h e s e a s o n a l l y - a d j u s t e d German t r a d e s u r p l u s f e l l a b r u p t l y from $11S m i l l i o n i n October t o $27 m i l l i o n i n November. The r e s u l t i n g t r a d e s u r p l u s of $27 m i l l i o n i s the s m a l l e s t on r e c o r d t h i s y e a r . (See Table 3 . ) Table 3 . German Foreign Trade ( s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d ) monthly averages i n m i l l i o n s of U.S. d o l l a r s ) 1961 III 1962 II III JL II_ Exports Imports 1037 86U 1071 917 1085 918 1052 9U7 1083 .236 1083 a/999 1105 102U Surplus 173 15U 167 105 1U7 8U 81 IV E Old New Series Series Octo Nov. 1123 1109 1032 J9k 1115 1088 91 115 27 a / Change i n import accounting p r o c e d u r e . As-of A p r i l 1962 r e t r o a c t i v e toTJanuary 1 , goods e n t e r i n g and t h o s e a l r e a d y s t o r e d i n bonded warehouses recorded as imports i n c o n t r a s t t o old procedure of r e c o r d i n g goods a s imports upon t h e i r d e p a r t u r e from bonded warehouses. Had m i l i t a r y imports been maintained a t normal l e v e l s (an average of $U0 m i l l i o n i n r e c e n t months), t h e November s u r p l u s would have been i n l i n e w i t h those of September and October. Trade r e s u l t s f o r the f i r s t e l e v e n months of 1962 show e x p o r t s t o be U.2 per c e n t h i g h e r than i n the comparable p e r i o d of 1961$ t h e i n c r e a s e i n imports was approximately 1 1 . 3 p e r c e n t a f t e r adjustment f o r s p e c i a l s t a t i s t i c a l f a c t o r s (see note t o Table 3). OFFICIAL USE ONLY " OFFICIAL USE ONLY Foreign exchange r e s e r v e s , Bundesbank gross gold and f o r e i g n exchange r e s e r v e s r o s e §82 m i l l i o n i n October and t h e f o r e i g n exchange a s s e t s of t h e German commercial banks i n c r e a s e d &32 m i l l i o n during the month so t h a t the combined r e s e r v e gain f o r October t o t a l e d $ l l l i m i l l i o n (See Table i t . ) The flow of funds was reversed i n Novembers when Bundesbank r e s e r v e s f e l l $80 m i l l i o n . This d e c l i n e was p a r t i a l l y o f f s e t by a gain of $17 m i l l i o n i n commercial bank f o r e i g n exchange r e s e r v e s but combined r e s e r v e s r e g i s t e r e d a l o s s of $62 m i l l i o n f o r the month of November• Table k» German Foreign Exchange Reserves ( i n millions~of U0So d o l l a r s ] " III 1961 IV I 1962 tn.' Oct, Bundesbank Commercial banks a / -570 - 71 + 68 -k27 -163 +601 +L8 -89 +2I4.0 + 82 -208 ^ 3 2 Total "6I4I4 -3# +138 4i0 + 32 + i l l r - Nov. -80 Dec 0 Jan.15 X-ut n.a. y-iuu n.a. 1i. R , a . n.a. b / Not completely comparable t o d a t a f o r e a r l i e r p e r i o d due t o d i f f e r e n c e s of v a l u a t i o n . Europe and B r i t i s h Commonwealth S e c t i o n , lie Nine Charts on F i n a n c i a l Markets Abroad Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart - I n t e r e s t A r b i t r a g e 9 United States/Canada - I n t e r e s t A r b i t r a g e 3 New York/London - I n t e r e s t A r b i t r a g e f o r German ,Commercial Banks - I n t e r e s t A r b i t r a g e s Frankfurt/London - S h o r t - t e r m Bond Yields -= Long-term Bond Yields - I n d u s t r i a l Stock Indices - Spot Exchange Rates — Major Currencies Against T70S0 D o l l a r Chart 9 - 3-month Forward Exchange Rates 1 2 3 U £ 6 7 8 OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 5 „ Germany: Selected Money Market Yields and Exchange Rates (per cent per annum) 3-mo. Euro3-mo. inter- Spread dollar deposits bank loans in favor London London Frankfurt 1962-Jan. Feb. Mar 0 Apr. MayJune July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1963-Jan, a/ 5 16 30 27 25 27 2h 21 26 23 7 Hi 21 28 u 11 3.63 3.UU 3.69 3.20 3.81 3.66 3.9L 3.72 3.9U U.13 U.13 U.06 li.31 lwl3 U.13 3.00 2.75 2.63 2.9k 3.13 n.a. 3.31 3.38 3.19 U.50 U.31 li.31 li.31 li.25 ii.UU 3.97 3.12 3.12 • +0.50 +0,56 +1.06 +0.56 +0.68 n.a. +0.63 +0.31 +0.75 • -0.37 -0.18 -0.25, 0.00 -0.12 -0.31 3-mo. U.S. $ into Marks Co**., bank —/ Market +0.25 +0 0 50 +0,25 +0.25 +0.25 +0.25 +0.50 +0.75 +0.75 +0,50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.85 +0.50 +0.57 : +0.75 - 7 - 3-*o. Treas. bills Ml Qer. +0.95 +0.62 +0.35 +0.32 +0.35 +0.21 +0.82 +O063 +0.65 +0.75 +0.10 n.a. -0.20 —1.20 +0.50 U.3U 5.16 U.3U U.03 3.69 3.78 3.81 3.69 3.63 3.78 3.66 3.56 3.53 3.53 3.66 1.88 1.88 2.00 2.13 2.13 2.25 2.38 2.50 2.50 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.7k 2.83 2.75 2o7U 2.69 2.7U 2.88 2.82 2.76 2.73 2.8U 2.8U 2.85 2.88 2.93 +0.U0 +0.U0 3.50 3»Ul 2.63 2.63 2.90 2.89 Bundesbank special rate for 2 to 6 month deposits. Table 6 . Germany? Selected Loan, Deposit and Security Rates (per cent per annum) Comm. 6-12 mo. deposits bank , loans 2/ Savings Time Bond yields 5-1/2? Public Railway author1958-83 ities Share Yields Yield m 1960-March Dec, 8.50 8.50 3.75 It.50 3.25 3.50 6.3 5.9 6.U 6.2 2.27 1.96 U.i ii.2 1961-Maroh Dec. 8.00 7.50 U.25 3.50 3.25 2.75 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.0 2.11 2.U9 3.7 3.5 3. SO 2.75 3.50 2.75 2.75 3.SO 2.75 3.50 2.75 .3.50 2.75 3.50 3.50 2.75 2.75 3.50 2.75 3.50 2.75 3.50 2,75 3.50 2,75 3.50 account# 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.2 2.57. 2.61 2.65 2.77 3.23 3.U9 3.71 3*58 3.79 3.89 3.3U . n.a. 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.8 n.a. 1962f-Jan. 7.50 'Feb. 7.SO Mar. 7.50 Apr. 7.50 May 7.50 June 7.50 July 7.50 Aug. 7.50 Sept. 7.50 Oct. 7.50 Nov. 7.50 Dec. 7.50 Approved c r e d i t s on c u r r e n t Ml INTEREST ARBITRAGE, THREE-MONTH RATE RATE U N I TIED S T A T E S / C A N A D A TREASURY DIFFERENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL AND WITH BILL R A T E S FORWARD FORWARD CANADIAN DOLLAR EXCHANGE COVER I N T BREST A R B I T R A G E , 3-MONTH TREASURY NEW BILL YORK/LONDON RATES RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L A N D F ~ 3 -M O NTH F O R W A R D STERLING < o 1 1 I I 1 E DIP FERE N T I A L W I T H [ W A R D EXCZ H A N G E C O V E R j J IN F A V O R 1» f I O N ! i - UAJ A V O R 1a ; HEW Y O R K \ 1I I 1 1 1 u ! M 11 1 1 1 f J »«« 1960 5 11 1 1 1 I 1 | I i 11 11 11 INTEREST Friday ARBITRAGE FOR GERMAN COMMERCIAL BANKS figures 2 ; M O N T H Per TREASURY -JU_RO-DOlLAR BILLS, DEPOSIT V/\ INTERBANK LENDING RATE AND RATES IUB0-D0UA8 G E R M A N T R E A S U R Y BILL RATE DIFFERENTIAL AND RATE DIFFERENTIAL WITH NIT I N C E N T I V E : . FORWARD FORWARD DEUTSCHE EXCHANGE MARK COVER IN F A V O R O F F R A N K F U R T ( + ) J INTERBANK LOAN RATE ;V\/W T R E A S U R Y BILLS tent per a n n u m w I N T E R E S T A R B I T R A G E, F R A N K F U R T / L O N D O N Friday tjguret Per cent per annum " 3 - M O N T H T R E A S U R Y BJLLS A N D INTERB A N K L E N D I N G RATES " \ A GERMAN INTERBANK 7 ' RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L A N D | - 3 - M O N T H FORWARD STERLING G E R M A N T R E A S U R Y BILLS V-/—v\ RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L W I T H FORWARD NET I N C E N T I V E O F U N I T E D K I N G D O M OVERT EXCHANGE COVER GE 5_har'.-! SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES I \ -fc 3-month treasury b'll rnirv lor fill countnr*. • "I™ 3 month r a t e lor U 5 dollar c h j p o n i i it. CANADA l i p o n (.1 month inlorlxink d e p a r t rote) nn,( 3witr<.-rlond (3 m o n t h c l e p o n t roto) LONG-TERM BOND YIELDS •>v rN r / /""X-Vv » ^~ : ;Xv" 1 kl^LUI I I I INDUSTRIAL N o t *• Jopon STOCK INDICES* f n d e * of a l l i t o r b v f f o d#» d o n T o k y o <* * c fin n Q e 15 SPOT E X C H A N G E RATES - MAJOR CURRENCIES AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR 16 \ rT-S- 3-MONTH | FORWARD EXCHANGE AGAINST U . _S_. D O L L A R S AGAINST POUND STERLING - RATES LONDON IIV U.S. DOLLAR j j AGAINST POUND STERLING FRENCH - LONDON FRANC A