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D I V I S I O N OF I N T E R N A T I O N A L F I N A N C E

B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S

H. 13

August 25, 1965.

No. 210

CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ABROAD
I.
II.
III.
I.

Japan
Nine Charts on Financial Markets Abroad
Latest Figures Plotted in H. 13 Chart Series
Japan:

Money and Capital Markets in June-July

In June and July, for the first time in many years, interest rates in
Japan were moving close enough to those in foreign financial centers to influence
decisions about financing by Japanese companies. Rates on domestic trade bills
are now much more competitive with foreign acceptance financing.
In the long-term field, the prospective cost of new governmentguaranteed bond issues in the United States is approaching 7 per cent; this approximates the cost of domestic financing.
The Ministry of Finance has, accordingly,
postponed any new bond issues until this fall.
In fact, there is some doubt now
that Japan will be able to successfully float this year the full $100 million in
bonds which the U. 5. has exempted from the Interest Equalization Tax. There are
also some indications that, with the decline in domestic call loan rates, Japanese
financial institutions are beginning to purchase local stocks and bonds again.
The reduced level of interest rates in Japan has been due to the continued relaxation in monetary policy.
On June 26, the Ba~k of Japan lowered its
basic discount rate by 0.365 percentage points for the third time this year to
5.475 per cent, the lowest level since October of 1951. At the end of June, commercial banks lowered by 0.365 percentage points their voluntary maximum rates on
bank loans and discounts.
According to preliminary data, Japanese borrowing in the U. S. rose $4
million in May. This reflected a decline of $3 million in short-term borrowing
and a rise of $7 million in long-term borrowing.
(See Table 1).
In June, Japan
floated a bond issue for $20 million in the United States, the second such bond
issue since September of 1963.
Table 1.

Japan:

Short- and Long-term Borrowing in the U. S,
(in millions of U. S, dollars)

Change during year

Short-term claims 1./
Long-term claims J /
TOTAL

Ch'ange during period
1965
IV
Feb. Mar. Apr.
I

May

1962

1963

212
50

431
175

625^/
18Lb/

229
61

69
15

24
26

3032/
_79b/

262

606

806

290

84

50

382




1964

1964
II III

I

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(Decontrolled after 6 months)

58
42
100

zl
3

119
19

-30£/

-32/

12/

_12/

138

-232/

42/

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Table I. (Cont.)
Change during year
1963 1964

1962
Securities^/
TOTAL

Change during period
1964
II
III

I

IV

Feb.

I

1965
Mar. Apr.

141

200

0

0

_0

_0

0

0

_0

0

403

806

806

290

84

50

382

100

3

138

23

May
_G

Op/ 4£/

1/ Bank-reported liabilities to the U. S.
_2/ New security flotations.
a/ Includes $143 million newly reported in December.
_b/ Includes $45 million newly reported in December.
J>/ Preliminary.
NOTE: Data on short-and long-term claims since early 1962 have recently been revised
substantially by the U. S. Treasury.
With the recent easing in the Euro-dollar market, the Ministry
of -Finance lowered in July and August the maximum authorized rates that
Japanese foreign exchange banks may pay on Euro-dollars.
(See Table 2).
The authorized rates have generally been declining since the end of May.
International reserves fell $30 million in July to a level of $1,950 million.
Reserves have been declining steadily since the end of March.
Table 2.
Effective:

Japan:

Maximum Authorized Rates on Euro-dollar Deposits

5/28/65

5/31/65

4 .375
5,.25
5..375
5..5
5.,875

4 .375
5,.5
5,.625
5..75
6.,125

Less than 30 days
1 - 3 months
3 - 6 months
6 - 1 2 months
1 year and over

6/3/65
4 .375
5,.125
5,.5
5,.375
6,,0

6/16/65

7/14/65

4 .375
5 .125
5,.25
5,.375
6.,0

4 .375
4,.875
5,.125
5.,5
5.,875

8/2/65
4,.375
4.,75
5.,0
5.,375
5. 875

Imports fell sharply in July, producing a seasonally adjusted
trade surplus of $73 million, one of the largest surpluses in years.
Exports remained at the high level of the previous two months.
After strengthening in the spot market during the first three
weeks of June, the yen weakened in the foreign exchange market through
mid-July.
On the domestic side, interest
loan rate in late June had fallen to one
the average interest rate on banks loans
stantially in May and June. Bank credit
slower rate than a year earlier.

rates declined in June.
The call
of the lowest levels in years;
and discounts also declined subin May continued to expand at a

After reaching a new five-year low on July 12, the stock market
rallied later in the month and generally rose during the first half of
August.
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On July 27 the Japanese Government announced new budgetary measures
aimed at both bolstering lagging demand and dispelling some of the current
"recession mood." The steps include:
1.

Increasing the loan and investment budget for the current
fiscal year by $556 million to $5.1 billion;
2. Restoring about 85 per cent of an earlier postponement of
$278 million in budget expenditures;
3. Speeding up disbursements of certain expenditures during the
current fiscal year;
4. Reducing the lending rate of three governmental financial
institutions by 0.3 percentage points; and
5. Deciding to float bonds to finance a deficit in the general
account budget (as distinct from the loans and investment
budget) for the next fiscal year beginning in April of 1966.
The last step represents a major departure from the policy followed since
1949 of balancing the general account budget.
It will require special
legislation.
Money market. Money market conditions eased in June as the Bank
of Japan lowered its basic discount rate and expansionary factors remained
dominant during the month. An expansion of ¥186 billion in Bank of Japan
credit in June more than offset the contractionary developments from a
¥103 billion increase in bank notes in circulation and net Treasury receipts
of ¥61 billion.
Interest rates. Call loan rates fell to very low levels in June;
they remained unchanged through July and early August. Call rates were
reduced 0.365 percentage points on June 14 as a result of advice given to
the call loan brokers by the Bank of Japan. Rates were reduced again by
0.365 percentage points on June 26 in conjunction with the reduction in the
Bank of Japan's basic discount rate.
(See Table 3). The 6.57 per cent rate
for "unconditional" call money is the lowest rate in years and is substantially below the most recent high of 11.315 per cent last December.
Table 3.

Japan:

Overnight 1/

Average Call Loan Money Rates in Tokyo
(per cent)
Unconditional 2/

Over-month-end 3/

May

29

6 .935

7 .300

8.030

June

5
12
19
26

6..935
6,.935
6,.570
6.,205

7 .300
7 .300
6 .935
6,.570

8.030
8.030
7.665
7.300

July

3
10
17
24
31

6.,205
6..205
6. 205
6. 205
6. 205

6,.570
6,.570
6.,570
6.,570
6.,570

7.300
7.300
7.300
7.300
7.300




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-4-

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Table 3.

(Cont.)
Overnight JL/

August 7
1/
2/
_3/

6.205

Unconditional 2/
6.570

Over-month-end _3/
7.300

For settlement on the following day.
Repayable at a day's notice.
Repayable at a day's notice in the following month.

With Japanese interest rates at such low levels, domestic trade
financing is now becoming cheaper in some cases than foreign acceptance
financing. Foreign acceptances currently carry rates of about 6.75 to 7.0
per cent per annum, but domestic import bills have a rate of 6.21 per cent.
Adjusting for the fact that the latter have maximum maturities of 2 to 3
months, as against 4 months for foreign bills, the effective interest rate
for domestic trade bills is about 6.94 to 7.3 per cent. Thus, domestic
trade bills are now more competitive, if not slightly cheaper in certain
cases. The Bank of Japan is somewhat concerned that this may pose a threat
to Japan's foreign exchange holdings, and consideration is being given to
liberalizing the quantitative limits imposed by the Ministry of Finance
on the short-term foreign liabilities of Japanese foreign exchange banks.
The average interest rate on commercial bank loans and discounts
continued to decline during May and June. In contrast to last December's
peak of 7.99 per cent, the rate in May and June was 7.88 and 7.83 per
cent, respectively.
Bank loans and discounts. Bank credit rose 1.5 per cent in May
compared to an increase of 1.8 per cent a year earlier. Holdings of
securities rose 4.2 per cent, while loans and bills discounted increased
1.2 and 0.7 per cent, respectively. A year earlier, securities holdings
rose 5.4 per cent while loans, and bills discounted, increased 0.6 and
2.3 per cent, respectively. Since the end of January, bank credit has generally
risen less rapidly tha;'i a year earlier. Deposits rose 1.2 per cent in May,
the same rate as a year earlier.
The proportion of bank loans and discounts extended for purchases
of equipment was 17.4 per cent in May, up slightly from the April level.
The ratio has generally been rising this year following a low last December
of 17.0 per cent.
Bank of Japan operations were expansionary in June.
(See Table 4).
The Bank purchased (net) ¥159 billion in securities and increased its loans
by ¥27 billion.




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-5-

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Table 4.

Japan:

Changes in Bank of Japan Loans and Holdings of Securities
(in billions of yen)

(1)
(2) + ( 3 )
Net increase (+)
or decrease ( - )

Period

(2)
Loans:
increase (+)
or decrease (-)

(3)
Net purchases (+) or
sales (-) of securities

1963
I Quarter
II Quarter
III Quarter
IV Quarter

+ 158.2
- 109.2
+ 202.4
+18.0

+59.1
- 198.7
+
91.3
+81.2

+99.1
+ 89.2
+129.1
+99.2

1964
I Quarter
II Quarter
III Quarter
IV Quarter

+203.3
+
75.7
+106.1
- 329.6

+36.7
+ 121.0
+
97.5
- 300.5

+166.6
- 196.7
+ 8 . 6
- 29.1

+
+
+

+ 216.5
14.4
+
65.3
25.9
15.0
+
26.5

+

1965
I Quarter
II Quarter
March
April
May

217.5
124.0
104.5
224.6
85.1
185.7

1.0

- 109.6
+
39.2
- 198.7
- 70.1
+ 159.2

In late July, the Bank of Japan decided to reduce its bond-buying
operations in August and to use instead more direct loans to commercial
banks. With three reductions in the Bank of Japan's basic discount rate
this year, commercial banks now favor obtaining funds from the Bank of Japan
by means of direct borrowing rather than from the more expensive bond-buying
operations which were first begun in November of 1962.
Bond Market. The volume of new bond issues in May was only ¥1
billion higher than the ¥159 billion in issues in April. New issues of bank
debentures were ¥100 billion, the same as in April, and new issues of industrial bonds were ¥27 billion, up ¥4 billion from the April level. New issues
of public corporation bonds in May were ¥33 billion, down ¥3 billion from the
level in April.
Bond yields again remained mostly unchanged in May. Average
yields on local government securities, public corporation bonds and one-year
bank debentures remained at the 1964 rates of 7.354, 7.053, and 6.224 per
cent, respectively. The yield on long-term bank debentures was down slightly
to 7.285 per cent, while the yield on industrial bonds rose from 7.465 per
cent in April to 7.472 per cent in May.
Stock market. The stock market remained weak in June and early
July, reaching a new five-year low on July 12. During the last
week of July, however, the market rallied sharply; by August 16, the Dow-Jones




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OFFICIAL USE ONLY

stock average was ¥1,158, or 14 per cent above the July 12 low.
(See Table
5). The recent rally has been attributed to a series of stimulative measures
announced by the Government, to the decision by the Government in early August
to issue government bonds for the first time in many years, and to the relative attractiveness of stocks and bonds in view of the decline in call loan
money rates. It is expected that the new bond issues, which are planned
for the next fiscal year beginning in April 1966, would be purchased mainly
by the Bank of Japan.
Table 5.

Japan:

May

31

¥1 ,097

June

7
14
21
28

1 ,115
1 ,080
1 :,076
1 :,072

5

1,,049

July

Dow-Jones Average of 225 Stocks, First Section of
Tokyo Exchange
July 12 ¥1 ,020
19 1 :,038
26 1.,034
August

2
9
16

1.,021
1 :,151
1.,158

1964 High
Low

¥1 ,369
1;,203

1965 High
Low

¥1.,290
1,,020

Net stock investment trust cancellations and redemptions were
smaller in July than in June. According to preliminary data, they totaled
¥42 billion in June, and then fell to ¥22 billion in July.
Foreign trade. The seasonally adjusted trade balance in July
registered the largest surplus in years as imports fell 10 per cent. Exports
also declined, but by only 1 per cent. This produced a surplus of $73
million in contrast to a surplus of only $1 million in June. During the
first half of 1965 the average surplus on trade account was $21 million.
The trade figures in Table 6 below are monthly, or monthly averages, on a
customs basis, seasonally adjusted.
Table 6.

1963
IV
Imports
Exports
Balance
a/

643
484
-159

1964
II
III

I
664
485
-179

Japan:

655
534
-121

632
571
- 61

Seasonally Adjusted Foreign Trade
(in millions of dollars)

IV
697
618
- 79

I

II

659 689
679 m
+ 20 + 22

Apr.
667
684
+ 17

1965
May
675
723
+ 48

June
726
727.
+
1

July
650a/
-123 a/
+ 73

Preliminary.
Foreign reserves and capital flows. International reserves continued their steady decline for the fourth consecutive month since March,
falling $30 million in July. This brought the reserve level to $1,950
million, or $103 million below the March peak. In general, the decline has
been due to adverse developments on capital account.




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-7-

OFFICIAL USE ONLY

The ratio of Japan's international reserves to the Bank of Japan 1
note issue fell from 36.7 per cent in May to 34.3 per cent in June. This
continues the generally declining trend evident in recent years.
Table 7.

1965

Ratio of Reserves to Bank Notes

International
Reserves
(billions of yen)

of Period

1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

Japan:

March
June
September
December

Reserves/
Bank Notes

Bank Notes
Issued
(billions <of yen)

¥520 .9
701 .6
599,.8
727,.9
740,.9
718,,6
697..3
698.,0
719. 6

¥1,029.4
1,234 .1
1,480.1
1,745 .9
2,057 .4
1,774 .8
1,860 .6
1,836 .1
2,298 .8

50 .6
56 .9
40 .5
41 .7
36 .0
40 .5
37,.5
38,.0
31,.3

729. 7
738. 0
739. 1
726. 8
724. 7
712. 8

1,961 .2
1,995,.2
2,022,.3
2,032,.8
1,975.,4
2,078. 3

37.,2
37. 0
36. 5
35. 8
36'. 7
34. 3

January
February
March
April
May
June

The over-all balance of payments (as measured on an exchange
transactions basis) again registered a deficit of $38 million in June.
Official reserves actually fell only $33 million rather than $38 million
due to a $5 million increase in Japan's gold tranche position with the IMF
because of a drawing by India.
(See Table 8). There was a net outflow of
both long-term and short-term capital in June, but the errors and omissions
item registered a plus $20 million.
Table 8.

Japan:

Balance of Payments on an Exchange Transactions Basis
(in millions of dollars)

II

1964
III

- 37
- 37
- 74

I
Trade account balance - 93
- 36
Services balance
Current account
-129
Net long-term capital
receipts
23
Net short-term capital
_99
receipts
Net balance on capital
122
account




1965
Apr. May

June

85
-58
27

31
-57
-26

102
- 61
41

123
Z_55
68

-10

-13

6

- 22

-11

-44

16

-_44

-104

16

-54

3

- 38

-126

IV

Dec.

I

33

94
-42
51

131
- 47
84

51
-44
7

42

28

33

32

5

42

-54

- 52

84

26

-22

- 22

71

II

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OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Table 8.

(Cont.)

I

II

Errors and omissions' - 14
Over-all balance of
payments
- 21
NOTE:

1964
III

IV

- 30

- 5

-16

- 20

1

13

Quarterly data are monthly averages.

Dec.

I

II

7

- 6

-11

55

17

-37

-

1965
Apr.
May

June

-13

- 39

20

-36

- 36

- 38

Data may not add exactly because of rounding.

Preliminary data indicate that Japanese short-term liabilities
to the U. S., as reported by U. S. banks, fell $3 million in May to $2,821
million. This represents the second consecutive month in which short-term
claims on Japan have declined, but the total decline for the two months
amounted to only $33 million.
There have been larger declines than this in
the past in a single month.
Table 9.

1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965

Short-term Claims on Japan Reported by U. S. Banks
(in millions of U. S. dollars)

Jan.

Feb.

Mar .

168
326
875
1 ,601
1 ,697
2 ,247
2 ,731

175
372
952
1,685
1,691
2,340
2,735

204
420
1,069
1,778
1,751
2,400
2,854

Apr.

May

224
242
456
488
1 ,159
1 ,196
1 ,775
1 :,762
1 ,898
1 ,876
2 ,394 2, ,421
2 ,824a/2.,821a/

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

260
497
1,272
1,758
1,872
2,469

256
586
1,341
1,765
1,877
2,416

269
628
1,335
1,767
1,798
2,472

262
660
1,288
1,711
1,890
2,493

262
693
1 ,281
1 ,710
1 ,904
2 ,488

275
711
1,292
1,662
2,017
2,496

324
806
1 ,528
1 ,740
2 ,171
2 ,796

NOTE:

a/

Data for 1962, 1963 and 1964 have been revised and include $52 million reported by
banks initially as of December 31, 1961.
The December 1964 figure includes $143
million in newly reported data.
Preliminary.
Japanese long-term liabilities to the lT. S. , as reported by U. S.
banks, rose $7 million in May according to preliminary reports.
(See Table
10) .
Table 10.

Long-term Claims on Japan Reported by U. S. Banks
(in millions of U. S. Dollars)

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Max
13
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
15
16
16
14
14
14
14
18
18
21
19
19
18
19
18
19
19
20
25
25
24
31
28
29
49
50
54
54
74
76
74
83
104
111
119
136
143
280
295
311
319
323
325
351
329
332
455
454
472
479 a/ 486 a/
Data for recent years have been revised and the December 1964 figure
million in newly reported data.
a/
Preliminary.

1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
NOTE:



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Oct.
15
21
23
62
146
352

Nov.
16
19
25
69
170
369

includes $45

Dec.
16
19
24
74
249
430

-9-

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There were no foreign bond issues in July, but in June Japan successfully floated its second bond issue in the American capital market since
September of 1963. The first issue, for $22.5 million, was placed in April
of this year. The Metropolis of Tokyo placed a $20 million, 15-year, 6 per
cent bond in June at a price of $95,25 to yield 6.50 per cent. The issue
was originally scheduled in late May with a coupon rate of 5-3/4 per cent,
but this was later changed to 6.0 per cent.
Foreign exchange.
The yen strengthened in the spot market during
It
the first three weeks of June, but then began to weaken after June 22.
depreciated steadily through mid-July.
In the forward market, the yen
strengthened moderately through mid-June, but then weakened steadily through
mid-July. The strength in the spot market in the third and fourth weeks of
June turned the forward premium into a discount, but after June 28, the yen
remained at a premium in the forward market.
Table 11.

Japan:

Customer's T. T. Exchange Rate of Bank of Tokyo in Tokyo
Yen-dollar
spot middle
rate

Three-month
forward middle
rate

Forward discount
in per cent
per annum

May

31

361.90

361.80

.11*

June

7
14
21
28

362.40
361.50
361.20
361.60

361.80
361.65
361.55
361.65

.66*
.17
.39
.06

July

5
12
15

362.10
362.30
362.40

361.75
361.80
362.00

.39*
.55*
.44*

*

Premium.

Asia, Africa and Latin America Section.
II.

Nine Charts on Financial Markets Abroad

- International Money Market Yields for U. S. Dollar Investors
Chart
- Interest Arbitrage, United States/Canada
Chart
- Interest Arbitrage, New York/London
Chart
- Interest Arbitrage for German Commercial Banks
Chart
- Short-term Interest Rates
Chart
- Long-term Bond Yields
Chart
Industrial Stock Indices
Chart 7
Chart 8 - Spot Exchange Rates - Major Currencies Against U. S. Dollar
Chart 9 - 3-Month Forward Exchange Rates




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Chert 1

I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E Y M A R K E T YIELDS FOR U.S. D O L L A R I N V E S T O R S
3 - M O N T H E U R O - D O L L A R D E P O S I T VS. C E R T I F I C A T E OF D E P O S I T
Wednesday

figures

&

|

EURO-DOLLAR

OVER

SELECTED I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E Y RATES
Friday figures
EURO-DOLLAR

DEPOSIT RATES ( L O N D O N }

CANADIAN FINANCE
COMPANY
|

Dec.
1U3




"64

1WS

INTEREST A R B I T R A G E , U N I T E D STATES / C A N A D A
Friday figures*
M O N T H TREASURY BILL RATES

BILL RATE DIFFERENTIAL A N D F O R W A R D C A N A D I A N DOLLAR

S H M » IN M V O I Of C A M M

3 - M O N T H C O V E R E D RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L S (NET I N C E N T I V E S ) -

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
M

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INTEREST A R B I T R A G E , N E W Y O R K / L O N D O N
Friday figures
3 - M O N T H T R E A S U R Y BILL RATES

RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L A N D 3 . M O N T H
FORWARD STERLING'

RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L W I T H F O R W A R D E X C H A N G E C O V E R (NET I N C E N T I V E )

1162




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Friday 11 e u r • »
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and Switzerland ^3 month depoiil roll)

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SPOT I X C H A N O l RATIS - M A J O R C U R R I N C I 1 S AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR

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3 - M O N T H F O R W A R D E X C H A N G E RATES
Friday

figures

A G A I N S T U.S. DOLLARS

A G A I N S T POUND STERLING - L O N D O N

A G A I N S T POUND STERLING - L O N D O N




13
210

August 25, 1 9 6 j
IIIc

L a t e s t

Figures Plotted In H. 13 Chart Series,
Per cent
per annum

Chart 1
Upper panel
(Wednesday,

Aug. 18

Treasury
4.50

U.S. certif. of deposit

4. 29

Lower panels
)

Euro-dollar deposits;

Finance Co. paper:

Call
7-•day
30-•day
90-•day
180-•day

4.063
4. 188
4. 250
4. 500
4, 875

U.S.

4.25

Canada

5.06

Hire-purchase paper, U.K.

bills:

U.S.

.3*81

U.K.

5. 36

Germany

3.88

Canada

3.98

Swiss 3-month deposits
(Date: July 15
)
Euro-$ deposit

(London)

Japan: composite rate
(Date: Apr. 30
)

4. 50

7.92

Chart 6

4.30
Bonds:

Chart 2
(Friday, Aug. 20
Treasury bills:

U.S. govt.
(Wed. ,
Aug. 18

)

Canada

3.98

U- S.

3. 81

Spread favor Canada

+n. 17

Forward Canadian dollar

0

Net incentive (Canada + )

+0.17

Chart 3
(Fr iday, Aug. 20
Treasury bills:

Per cent
per annum

Chart 5
(Friday, Aug. 20
,
except as noted)

)

Euro-$ deposit

(Friday, Aug. 20

1965

)

U.K.

5. 36

U.S.

3.81

Spread favor U.K.

4^23

6.60

German Fed. Railway.
(Fri. , Aug. 20

)

2,06

Swiss Confederation
(Fri. , Aug. 13

)

3-92

Canadian govt.
(Wed. , Aug. 18

)

5. 36

Netherlands government
perpetual
(Fri. ,
Aug. 20
)

5.24

+1, 55

Forward pound

-2.51

Net incentive (U.K. +)

-0. 96


For description and sources
September 23, 1964.


)

U. K. war loan
(Thurs.,
Aug. 19

of data see special annex to H. 13 Number 164,

W