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D I V I S I O N OF I N T E R N A T I O N A L F I N A N C E B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S H. 13 August 25, 1965. No. 210 CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ABROAD I. II. III. I. Japan Nine Charts on Financial Markets Abroad Latest Figures Plotted in H. 13 Chart Series Japan: Money and Capital Markets in June-July In June and July, for the first time in many years, interest rates in Japan were moving close enough to those in foreign financial centers to influence decisions about financing by Japanese companies. Rates on domestic trade bills are now much more competitive with foreign acceptance financing. In the long-term field, the prospective cost of new governmentguaranteed bond issues in the United States is approaching 7 per cent; this approximates the cost of domestic financing. The Ministry of Finance has, accordingly, postponed any new bond issues until this fall. In fact, there is some doubt now that Japan will be able to successfully float this year the full $100 million in bonds which the U. 5. has exempted from the Interest Equalization Tax. There are also some indications that, with the decline in domestic call loan rates, Japanese financial institutions are beginning to purchase local stocks and bonds again. The reduced level of interest rates in Japan has been due to the continued relaxation in monetary policy. On June 26, the Ba~k of Japan lowered its basic discount rate by 0.365 percentage points for the third time this year to 5.475 per cent, the lowest level since October of 1951. At the end of June, commercial banks lowered by 0.365 percentage points their voluntary maximum rates on bank loans and discounts. According to preliminary data, Japanese borrowing in the U. S. rose $4 million in May. This reflected a decline of $3 million in short-term borrowing and a rise of $7 million in long-term borrowing. (See Table 1). In June, Japan floated a bond issue for $20 million in the United States, the second such bond issue since September of 1963. Table 1. Japan: Short- and Long-term Borrowing in the U. S, (in millions of U. S, dollars) Change during year Short-term claims 1./ Long-term claims J / TOTAL Ch'ange during period 1965 IV Feb. Mar. Apr. I May 1962 1963 212 50 431 175 625^/ 18Lb/ 229 61 69 15 24 26 3032/ _79b/ 262 606 806 290 84 50 382 1964 1964 II III I OFFICIAL USE ONLY (Decontrolled after 6 months) 58 42 100 zl 3 119 19 -30£/ -32/ 12/ _12/ 138 -232/ 42/ OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table I. (Cont.) Change during year 1963 1964 1962 Securities^/ TOTAL Change during period 1964 II III I IV Feb. I 1965 Mar. Apr. 141 200 0 0 _0 _0 0 0 _0 0 403 806 806 290 84 50 382 100 3 138 23 May _G Op/ 4£/ 1/ Bank-reported liabilities to the U. S. _2/ New security flotations. a/ Includes $143 million newly reported in December. _b/ Includes $45 million newly reported in December. J>/ Preliminary. NOTE: Data on short-and long-term claims since early 1962 have recently been revised substantially by the U. S. Treasury. With the recent easing in the Euro-dollar market, the Ministry of -Finance lowered in July and August the maximum authorized rates that Japanese foreign exchange banks may pay on Euro-dollars. (See Table 2). The authorized rates have generally been declining since the end of May. International reserves fell $30 million in July to a level of $1,950 million. Reserves have been declining steadily since the end of March. Table 2. Effective: Japan: Maximum Authorized Rates on Euro-dollar Deposits 5/28/65 5/31/65 4 .375 5,.25 5..375 5..5 5.,875 4 .375 5,.5 5,.625 5..75 6.,125 Less than 30 days 1 - 3 months 3 - 6 months 6 - 1 2 months 1 year and over 6/3/65 4 .375 5,.125 5,.5 5,.375 6,,0 6/16/65 7/14/65 4 .375 5 .125 5,.25 5,.375 6.,0 4 .375 4,.875 5,.125 5.,5 5.,875 8/2/65 4,.375 4.,75 5.,0 5.,375 5. 875 Imports fell sharply in July, producing a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of $73 million, one of the largest surpluses in years. Exports remained at the high level of the previous two months. After strengthening in the spot market during the first three weeks of June, the yen weakened in the foreign exchange market through mid-July. On the domestic side, interest loan rate in late June had fallen to one the average interest rate on banks loans stantially in May and June. Bank credit slower rate than a year earlier. rates declined in June. The call of the lowest levels in years; and discounts also declined subin May continued to expand at a After reaching a new five-year low on July 12, the stock market rallied later in the month and generally rose during the first half of August. OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY On July 27 the Japanese Government announced new budgetary measures aimed at both bolstering lagging demand and dispelling some of the current "recession mood." The steps include: 1. Increasing the loan and investment budget for the current fiscal year by $556 million to $5.1 billion; 2. Restoring about 85 per cent of an earlier postponement of $278 million in budget expenditures; 3. Speeding up disbursements of certain expenditures during the current fiscal year; 4. Reducing the lending rate of three governmental financial institutions by 0.3 percentage points; and 5. Deciding to float bonds to finance a deficit in the general account budget (as distinct from the loans and investment budget) for the next fiscal year beginning in April of 1966. The last step represents a major departure from the policy followed since 1949 of balancing the general account budget. It will require special legislation. Money market. Money market conditions eased in June as the Bank of Japan lowered its basic discount rate and expansionary factors remained dominant during the month. An expansion of ¥186 billion in Bank of Japan credit in June more than offset the contractionary developments from a ¥103 billion increase in bank notes in circulation and net Treasury receipts of ¥61 billion. Interest rates. Call loan rates fell to very low levels in June; they remained unchanged through July and early August. Call rates were reduced 0.365 percentage points on June 14 as a result of advice given to the call loan brokers by the Bank of Japan. Rates were reduced again by 0.365 percentage points on June 26 in conjunction with the reduction in the Bank of Japan's basic discount rate. (See Table 3). The 6.57 per cent rate for "unconditional" call money is the lowest rate in years and is substantially below the most recent high of 11.315 per cent last December. Table 3. Japan: Overnight 1/ Average Call Loan Money Rates in Tokyo (per cent) Unconditional 2/ Over-month-end 3/ May 29 6 .935 7 .300 8.030 June 5 12 19 26 6..935 6,.935 6,.570 6.,205 7 .300 7 .300 6 .935 6,.570 8.030 8.030 7.665 7.300 July 3 10 17 24 31 6.,205 6..205 6. 205 6. 205 6. 205 6,.570 6,.570 6.,570 6.,570 6.,570 7.300 7.300 7.300 7.300 7.300 OFFICIAL USE ONLY -4- OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 3. (Cont.) Overnight JL/ August 7 1/ 2/ _3/ 6.205 Unconditional 2/ 6.570 Over-month-end _3/ 7.300 For settlement on the following day. Repayable at a day's notice. Repayable at a day's notice in the following month. With Japanese interest rates at such low levels, domestic trade financing is now becoming cheaper in some cases than foreign acceptance financing. Foreign acceptances currently carry rates of about 6.75 to 7.0 per cent per annum, but domestic import bills have a rate of 6.21 per cent. Adjusting for the fact that the latter have maximum maturities of 2 to 3 months, as against 4 months for foreign bills, the effective interest rate for domestic trade bills is about 6.94 to 7.3 per cent. Thus, domestic trade bills are now more competitive, if not slightly cheaper in certain cases. The Bank of Japan is somewhat concerned that this may pose a threat to Japan's foreign exchange holdings, and consideration is being given to liberalizing the quantitative limits imposed by the Ministry of Finance on the short-term foreign liabilities of Japanese foreign exchange banks. The average interest rate on commercial bank loans and discounts continued to decline during May and June. In contrast to last December's peak of 7.99 per cent, the rate in May and June was 7.88 and 7.83 per cent, respectively. Bank loans and discounts. Bank credit rose 1.5 per cent in May compared to an increase of 1.8 per cent a year earlier. Holdings of securities rose 4.2 per cent, while loans and bills discounted increased 1.2 and 0.7 per cent, respectively. A year earlier, securities holdings rose 5.4 per cent while loans, and bills discounted, increased 0.6 and 2.3 per cent, respectively. Since the end of January, bank credit has generally risen less rapidly tha;'i a year earlier. Deposits rose 1.2 per cent in May, the same rate as a year earlier. The proportion of bank loans and discounts extended for purchases of equipment was 17.4 per cent in May, up slightly from the April level. The ratio has generally been rising this year following a low last December of 17.0 per cent. Bank of Japan operations were expansionary in June. (See Table 4). The Bank purchased (net) ¥159 billion in securities and increased its loans by ¥27 billion. OFFICIAL USE ONLY -5- OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 4. Japan: Changes in Bank of Japan Loans and Holdings of Securities (in billions of yen) (1) (2) + ( 3 ) Net increase (+) or decrease ( - ) Period (2) Loans: increase (+) or decrease (-) (3) Net purchases (+) or sales (-) of securities 1963 I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV Quarter + 158.2 - 109.2 + 202.4 +18.0 +59.1 - 198.7 + 91.3 +81.2 +99.1 + 89.2 +129.1 +99.2 1964 I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV Quarter +203.3 + 75.7 +106.1 - 329.6 +36.7 + 121.0 + 97.5 - 300.5 +166.6 - 196.7 + 8 . 6 - 29.1 + + + + 216.5 14.4 + 65.3 25.9 15.0 + 26.5 + 1965 I Quarter II Quarter March April May 217.5 124.0 104.5 224.6 85.1 185.7 1.0 - 109.6 + 39.2 - 198.7 - 70.1 + 159.2 In late July, the Bank of Japan decided to reduce its bond-buying operations in August and to use instead more direct loans to commercial banks. With three reductions in the Bank of Japan's basic discount rate this year, commercial banks now favor obtaining funds from the Bank of Japan by means of direct borrowing rather than from the more expensive bond-buying operations which were first begun in November of 1962. Bond Market. The volume of new bond issues in May was only ¥1 billion higher than the ¥159 billion in issues in April. New issues of bank debentures were ¥100 billion, the same as in April, and new issues of industrial bonds were ¥27 billion, up ¥4 billion from the April level. New issues of public corporation bonds in May were ¥33 billion, down ¥3 billion from the level in April. Bond yields again remained mostly unchanged in May. Average yields on local government securities, public corporation bonds and one-year bank debentures remained at the 1964 rates of 7.354, 7.053, and 6.224 per cent, respectively. The yield on long-term bank debentures was down slightly to 7.285 per cent, while the yield on industrial bonds rose from 7.465 per cent in April to 7.472 per cent in May. Stock market. The stock market remained weak in June and early July, reaching a new five-year low on July 12. During the last week of July, however, the market rallied sharply; by August 16, the Dow-Jones OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY stock average was ¥1,158, or 14 per cent above the July 12 low. (See Table 5). The recent rally has been attributed to a series of stimulative measures announced by the Government, to the decision by the Government in early August to issue government bonds for the first time in many years, and to the relative attractiveness of stocks and bonds in view of the decline in call loan money rates. It is expected that the new bond issues, which are planned for the next fiscal year beginning in April 1966, would be purchased mainly by the Bank of Japan. Table 5. Japan: May 31 ¥1 ,097 June 7 14 21 28 1 ,115 1 ,080 1 :,076 1 :,072 5 1,,049 July Dow-Jones Average of 225 Stocks, First Section of Tokyo Exchange July 12 ¥1 ,020 19 1 :,038 26 1.,034 August 2 9 16 1.,021 1 :,151 1.,158 1964 High Low ¥1 ,369 1;,203 1965 High Low ¥1.,290 1,,020 Net stock investment trust cancellations and redemptions were smaller in July than in June. According to preliminary data, they totaled ¥42 billion in June, and then fell to ¥22 billion in July. Foreign trade. The seasonally adjusted trade balance in July registered the largest surplus in years as imports fell 10 per cent. Exports also declined, but by only 1 per cent. This produced a surplus of $73 million in contrast to a surplus of only $1 million in June. During the first half of 1965 the average surplus on trade account was $21 million. The trade figures in Table 6 below are monthly, or monthly averages, on a customs basis, seasonally adjusted. Table 6. 1963 IV Imports Exports Balance a/ 643 484 -159 1964 II III I 664 485 -179 Japan: 655 534 -121 632 571 - 61 Seasonally Adjusted Foreign Trade (in millions of dollars) IV 697 618 - 79 I II 659 689 679 m + 20 + 22 Apr. 667 684 + 17 1965 May 675 723 + 48 June 726 727. + 1 July 650a/ -123 a/ + 73 Preliminary. Foreign reserves and capital flows. International reserves continued their steady decline for the fourth consecutive month since March, falling $30 million in July. This brought the reserve level to $1,950 million, or $103 million below the March peak. In general, the decline has been due to adverse developments on capital account. OFFICIAL- USE ONLY -7- OFFICIAL USE ONLY The ratio of Japan's international reserves to the Bank of Japan 1 note issue fell from 36.7 per cent in May to 34.3 per cent in June. This continues the generally declining trend evident in recent years. Table 7. 1965 Ratio of Reserves to Bank Notes International Reserves (billions of yen) of Period 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Japan: March June September December Reserves/ Bank Notes Bank Notes Issued (billions <of yen) ¥520 .9 701 .6 599,.8 727,.9 740,.9 718,,6 697..3 698.,0 719. 6 ¥1,029.4 1,234 .1 1,480.1 1,745 .9 2,057 .4 1,774 .8 1,860 .6 1,836 .1 2,298 .8 50 .6 56 .9 40 .5 41 .7 36 .0 40 .5 37,.5 38,.0 31,.3 729. 7 738. 0 739. 1 726. 8 724. 7 712. 8 1,961 .2 1,995,.2 2,022,.3 2,032,.8 1,975.,4 2,078. 3 37.,2 37. 0 36. 5 35. 8 36'. 7 34. 3 January February March April May June The over-all balance of payments (as measured on an exchange transactions basis) again registered a deficit of $38 million in June. Official reserves actually fell only $33 million rather than $38 million due to a $5 million increase in Japan's gold tranche position with the IMF because of a drawing by India. (See Table 8). There was a net outflow of both long-term and short-term capital in June, but the errors and omissions item registered a plus $20 million. Table 8. Japan: Balance of Payments on an Exchange Transactions Basis (in millions of dollars) II 1964 III - 37 - 37 - 74 I Trade account balance - 93 - 36 Services balance Current account -129 Net long-term capital receipts 23 Net short-term capital _99 receipts Net balance on capital 122 account 1965 Apr. May June 85 -58 27 31 -57 -26 102 - 61 41 123 Z_55 68 -10 -13 6 - 22 -11 -44 16 -_44 -104 16 -54 3 - 38 -126 IV Dec. I 33 94 -42 51 131 - 47 84 51 -44 7 42 28 33 32 5 42 -54 - 52 84 26 -22 - 22 71 II OFFICIAL USE ONLY OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 8. (Cont.) I II Errors and omissions' - 14 Over-all balance of payments - 21 NOTE: 1964 III IV - 30 - 5 -16 - 20 1 13 Quarterly data are monthly averages. Dec. I II 7 - 6 -11 55 17 -37 - 1965 Apr. May June -13 - 39 20 -36 - 36 - 38 Data may not add exactly because of rounding. Preliminary data indicate that Japanese short-term liabilities to the U. S., as reported by U. S. banks, fell $3 million in May to $2,821 million. This represents the second consecutive month in which short-term claims on Japan have declined, but the total decline for the two months amounted to only $33 million. There have been larger declines than this in the past in a single month. Table 9. 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Short-term Claims on Japan Reported by U. S. Banks (in millions of U. S. dollars) Jan. Feb. Mar . 168 326 875 1 ,601 1 ,697 2 ,247 2 ,731 175 372 952 1,685 1,691 2,340 2,735 204 420 1,069 1,778 1,751 2,400 2,854 Apr. May 224 242 456 488 1 ,159 1 ,196 1 ,775 1 :,762 1 ,898 1 ,876 2 ,394 2, ,421 2 ,824a/2.,821a/ June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 260 497 1,272 1,758 1,872 2,469 256 586 1,341 1,765 1,877 2,416 269 628 1,335 1,767 1,798 2,472 262 660 1,288 1,711 1,890 2,493 262 693 1 ,281 1 ,710 1 ,904 2 ,488 275 711 1,292 1,662 2,017 2,496 324 806 1 ,528 1 ,740 2 ,171 2 ,796 NOTE: a/ Data for 1962, 1963 and 1964 have been revised and include $52 million reported by banks initially as of December 31, 1961. The December 1964 figure includes $143 million in newly reported data. Preliminary. Japanese long-term liabilities to the lT. S. , as reported by U. S. banks, rose $7 million in May according to preliminary reports. (See Table 10) . Table 10. Long-term Claims on Japan Reported by U. S. Banks (in millions of U. S. Dollars) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. June July Aug. Sept. Max 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 15 16 16 14 14 14 14 18 18 21 19 19 18 19 18 19 19 20 25 25 24 31 28 29 49 50 54 54 74 76 74 83 104 111 119 136 143 280 295 311 319 323 325 351 329 332 455 454 472 479 a/ 486 a/ Data for recent years have been revised and the December 1964 figure million in newly reported data. a/ Preliminary. 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 NOTE: OFFICIAL USE ONLY Oct. 15 21 23 62 146 352 Nov. 16 19 25 69 170 369 includes $45 Dec. 16 19 24 74 249 430 -9- OFFICIAL USE ONLY There were no foreign bond issues in July, but in June Japan successfully floated its second bond issue in the American capital market since September of 1963. The first issue, for $22.5 million, was placed in April of this year. The Metropolis of Tokyo placed a $20 million, 15-year, 6 per cent bond in June at a price of $95,25 to yield 6.50 per cent. The issue was originally scheduled in late May with a coupon rate of 5-3/4 per cent, but this was later changed to 6.0 per cent. Foreign exchange. The yen strengthened in the spot market during It the first three weeks of June, but then began to weaken after June 22. depreciated steadily through mid-July. In the forward market, the yen strengthened moderately through mid-June, but then weakened steadily through mid-July. The strength in the spot market in the third and fourth weeks of June turned the forward premium into a discount, but after June 28, the yen remained at a premium in the forward market. Table 11. Japan: Customer's T. T. Exchange Rate of Bank of Tokyo in Tokyo Yen-dollar spot middle rate Three-month forward middle rate Forward discount in per cent per annum May 31 361.90 361.80 .11* June 7 14 21 28 362.40 361.50 361.20 361.60 361.80 361.65 361.55 361.65 .66* .17 .39 .06 July 5 12 15 362.10 362.30 362.40 361.75 361.80 362.00 .39* .55* .44* * Premium. Asia, Africa and Latin America Section. II. Nine Charts on Financial Markets Abroad - International Money Market Yields for U. S. Dollar Investors Chart - Interest Arbitrage, United States/Canada Chart - Interest Arbitrage, New York/London Chart - Interest Arbitrage for German Commercial Banks Chart - Short-term Interest Rates Chart - Long-term Bond Yields Chart Industrial Stock Indices Chart 7 Chart 8 - Spot Exchange Rates - Major Currencies Against U. S. Dollar Chart 9 - 3-Month Forward Exchange Rates OFFICIAL USE ONLY Chert 1 I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E Y M A R K E T YIELDS FOR U.S. D O L L A R I N V E S T O R S 3 - M O N T H E U R O - D O L L A R D E P O S I T VS. C E R T I F I C A T E OF D E P O S I T Wednesday figures & | EURO-DOLLAR OVER SELECTED I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E Y RATES Friday figures EURO-DOLLAR DEPOSIT RATES ( L O N D O N } CANADIAN FINANCE COMPANY | Dec. 1U3 "64 1WS INTEREST A R B I T R A G E , U N I T E D STATES / C A N A D A Friday figures* M O N T H TREASURY BILL RATES BILL RATE DIFFERENTIAL A N D F O R W A R D C A N A D I A N DOLLAR S H M » IN M V O I Of C A M M 3 - M O N T H C O V E R E D RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L S (NET I N C E N T I V E S ) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i S D « Thunder figurei 1962, Friday I hereafter. i M S 1 1 1 li 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 » M i S M D 1111 « M J 1 M°r itl S D i INTEREST A R B I T R A G E , N E W Y O R K / L O N D O N Friday figures 3 - M O N T H T R E A S U R Y BILL RATES RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L A N D 3 . M O N T H FORWARD STERLING' RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L W I T H F O R W A R D E X C H A N G E C O V E R (NET I N C E N T I V E ) 1162 1 I N T E R E S T A R B I T R A G E FOR G E R M A N C O M M E Friday 11 e u r • » 1 1 1 i 1 1 I 1 1 3 - M O N T H TREASURY B I L L S , I N T E R B A N K L E N D I N G RATE A N D E U R O - D O L L A R D E P O S I T RATES 1 i f V A [ w V 611 1 J / j ^ d i I |LOAN IATI 1 1 1 1 1 1 - i r * r i i i mis 1 i 1 11 11 i i i i i i I I I I [ RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L A N D F O R W A R D D E U T S C H E M A R K FOIWAIV RATI TIIASVIY BILIS j | , | | r i i i i r RATE D I F F E R E N T I A L W I T H F O R W A R D E X C H A N G E C O V E R (NET I N C E N T I V E ) I I Kx / \ I A IN FAVOI OF F I A M f U I T I I ^ - / p — I I N T I 1 I A H I IOAN I A T I illASVIT I I U S A , I \ J VAV» / | ' I / U i i SHORT-TERM INTEREST R A T E S * u.» | rv-i CANADA IMS * 3 month i r . o . u r y bill r o t . , lor oil c o u n l r i . . 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J Cfc.rt • ! •;», SPOT I X C H A N O l RATIS - M A J O R C U R R I N C I 1 S AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR ./X JAPAilSI Tli *•' Ab*v« per ^ 3 - M O N T H F O R W A R D E X C H A N G E RATES Friday figures A G A I N S T U.S. DOLLARS A G A I N S T POUND STERLING - L O N D O N A G A I N S T POUND STERLING - L O N D O N 13 210 August 25, 1 9 6 j IIIc L a t e s t Figures Plotted In H. 13 Chart Series, Per cent per annum Chart 1 Upper panel (Wednesday, Aug. 18 Treasury 4.50 U.S. certif. of deposit 4. 29 Lower panels ) Euro-dollar deposits; Finance Co. paper: Call 7-•day 30-•day 90-•day 180-•day 4.063 4. 188 4. 250 4. 500 4, 875 U.S. 4.25 Canada 5.06 Hire-purchase paper, U.K. bills: U.S. .3*81 U.K. 5. 36 Germany 3.88 Canada 3.98 Swiss 3-month deposits (Date: July 15 ) Euro-$ deposit (London) Japan: composite rate (Date: Apr. 30 ) 4. 50 7.92 Chart 6 4.30 Bonds: Chart 2 (Friday, Aug. 20 Treasury bills: U.S. govt. (Wed. , Aug. 18 ) Canada 3.98 U- S. 3. 81 Spread favor Canada +n. 17 Forward Canadian dollar 0 Net incentive (Canada + ) +0.17 Chart 3 (Fr iday, Aug. 20 Treasury bills: Per cent per annum Chart 5 (Friday, Aug. 20 , except as noted) ) Euro-$ deposit (Friday, Aug. 20 1965 ) U.K. 5. 36 U.S. 3.81 Spread favor U.K. 4^23 6.60 German Fed. Railway. (Fri. , Aug. 20 ) 2,06 Swiss Confederation (Fri. , Aug. 13 ) 3-92 Canadian govt. (Wed. , Aug. 18 ) 5. 36 Netherlands government perpetual (Fri. , Aug. 20 ) 5.24 +1, 55 Forward pound -2.51 Net incentive (U.K. +) -0. 96 For description and sources September 23, 1964. ) U. K. war loan (Thurs., Aug. 19 of data see special annex to H. 13 Number 164, W