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I
BOARD OF GOVERNOR*
DIVISION o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l f i n a n c e
H. 13
No, 118
LIBRARY
V
August 21, 1963.
I
CAPITAL MARKETDEVELOPMENTS ABROAD
AUG 2S 1963
c.-'.r. HYsrFvi: Ef
01 mCHMCND
I, Germany
II, Nine Charts on Financial Markets Abroad,.
Germany: Money and Capital Marketss May - July 196 3
A further tightening of the money market in large part as a result of
technical factors (mid-year window-dressing and a major tax date in June) and
a general upward tendency in the interest rate structure were the principal
developments in German financial market in May and June, There was only a slight
easing in the money market in July and that movement occurred only slowly.
Rates in Frankfurt for both
from the beginning of May through the
momentary peak of £ to 5-l/U per cent
necessary to borrow at the Bundesbank
end of June,
call money and 3-month money rose siuadily
end of June, Three-month ir.oney hit a
at mid-year. Commercial banks founa it
in May and then again quite heavily at the
The tightening of the money market was accompanied by a general upward
tendency in the 0 /erall level of interest rates, Bond yields rose slightly and
the authorities found it difficult to maintain the usual 6 per cent coupon
on new bond issues, In addition, effective July 1, a major savings-bank raised
the interest rate on deposits left for more than four years from U per cent to
5 per cent and other savings banks are expected to follow soon,
The German balance of payments remained in substantial surplus during
the second quarter of 1963 as foreign capital continued to move into German
securities in considerable volume, German banks and firms also borrowed more
heavily abroad„ In addition, the trade balance improved. As a result, Bundesbank
foreign exchange reserves rose $2^3 million and the foreign^exchange assets of
the commercial banks rose
million in the second quarter, In June the banks
bui:t up their holdings of foreign exchange despite the tightness of the German
money market probably because of extremely attractive rates on Euro-dollar deposits.
Money market. After easing somewhat at the end of April, the German
money market tightened during Mayt Rates on call money rose from a range of 2-3/8 %
/b n-v en-ii. xt,. the; end of -voril bo 3-1/8 - 3-^/8 per cent 'by.the • third week of
May and rates on.3-month loans rose from 3-1/2 per cent to a range of 3-5/8
3-3/U per cent. (See Table 1*4 During the last week of; May, German banks increased
their borrowing at the Bundesbank in preparation for the month-end and for the
major tax date in June, They then loaned these reserves out ">n a day-to-day basis
and the rate on call money subsequently eased to 2-l/U - 3-1/2 per cefTC
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(Decontrolled
, tr six months)
\
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-2-
Table 1. Germany: _j'ionev Market Rates in Frankfurt, April - June 1963
( in per cent per annum)
Dsy-fco-ur-.y r.ioney
May
1- 7
8-15
16-23
2U-31
Three-month loans
.1-1/8 - 3-3/8
3
-3-3/8
3-1/8-3-5/8
2-1A -'3-1/2
3-3/8 - 3-5/8
3-1/2-3-5/8
3-5/8 -3-3/U
3-5/8 - 3-3/U
June 1- 7
8-15
16-23
2U-30
3-1/8
3
3-1/2
3-3/U
- 3-1/2
- 3-3/8
- U
- U-3/U
3-3/U
3-3/U - 3-7/8
3-3/U - U
3-3/U - U
July 1- 7
8-15
16-23
2U-31
3-l/U - U - 3 / 8
2-7/8 3
2—5/8 - 3-1/8
2-1/2 - 2-7/8
3-7/8 - U - l / U
3-7/8 - U-l/8
3-7/8 — U
3-3/U -
U
a/ Highest and lowest rates quoted each week by Frankfurt banks.
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank
The coincidence of the quarterly tax date, semi-annual payments, and
mid-year window-dressing of the balance sheets of the German commercial banks
caused the market to become increasingly tight during June. The ratefir3-month
loans rose to a range of 3-3/U - U per cent by the end of June. At mid-year,
call money was demanded at U - 3 / U per cent and the banks were forced to rediscount
heavily at the B mdesbank.
Despite domestic money market tightness, commercial banks continued
lending operations in Euro-currency markets during May and June. Attractive rates
on Euro-dollars and an interest range of G bo 7 per cent for DM loans in other
European financial centers led German banks to engage in day-to-day arbitrage
operations.
After mid-year, the Germany money market eased somewhat. Rates on call
money declined steadily to a range of 2-1/2 - 2-7/8 per cent by the end of July.
However, there was no easing of the rates for three-months money. After rising
further to a range of 3-7/8 - U - l / U per cent in the first week of July, the rate
declined slowly during the rest of the month but at the end of July was as high
as it had been at mid-year. (See Table 1.)
Upward pressure on German interest rates. The general steady tightening
of the money market created upward pressure on the entire interest rate structure
in the period under review.
At mid-year when 9 0 - d a y money momentarily rose to a peak of 5 to 5 - l / U
per cent, the financial press reported that the commercial banks were anxious about
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their liquidity position and were suggesting that the Bundesbank raise interest
rates on money-market paper, reduce minimum reserve requirements and allow payment of interest on foreign depositsc. In addition, the banks wanted the Federal
authorities to keep balances with them and not shift all their cash receipts to
the Bundesbank,
In early June, however, President Blessing stated that the Bundesbank
was opposed to an upward movement of interest rates„ Such a rise would: (a)further
impede investment activity which was already sluggish5 and (b) produce a further
influx of funds from abroad*
Nonetheless, upward pressures on the interest rate structure continue»
A major savings bank (the Wuerttembergische Landessparkasse) on July 1 raised the
interest rates on deposits committed for more than four years (which are exempt
from the agreement on maximum deposit rates) to 5 per cent; other savings banks
are expected to follow,
Bond marketo The tightening of the money market was also reflected in
the bond market, Yields moved up (See Table 9 and Chart 6) as bona p? -vs (as
reflected by the F.A.Z. bond index) declined from 106o10 at the beginning of May
to 105=56 at the end of July
(December 31, 1958 = 100) „ There is evidence that
the authorities are beginning to find it difficult to maintain the 6 per cent
coupon on new issues0 For example, a DM UOO million Federal Government bond issue,
which was offered on July L encountered considerable trouble being placed« The
financial press reported that foreign interests„ accustomed to being allocated
only a small per centage of their subscription, had demanded several times the
amounts they really wanted„ To their surprisev however, they found that their
subscriptions were to be filled fully as demand was lagging and they consequently
tried to unload part of their allocation» A further difficulty in placing the
issue was the information which became known in early July that the Treasury had
offered a special issue of DM 100 million to.the social security funds on more
favorable terms than those of the July h offerings
An earlier DM 210 million issue of the Federal Postal System, floated
in June at 6 per cent par, also had run into lagging subscriptionsQ
The Capital Market Committee is reported nevertheless to have decided
to maintain the 6 per cent coupon rate»
Therefore all but one major industrial
issue is being postponed until after the end of August.
Earlier during April and May, public authorities were the most active
borrowers in the bond market as they were in the first quarter„ They accounted
for DM 1,01:3 million (or 37 per cent) of a total of gross bond placements of DM
2,821 million, (See Table 2,) During April and Mayy foreign participation in public
bond issues con-timed to be heavy and non-resident demand, as in the past quarter,
outran allocations„
Stock market, Share prices in June were virtually unchanged from May
levels and.the German stock market was generally quiet as foreign buying apparently
slackened.
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Table 2, Germany; Gross Placements ir Security Markets —/
(millions of DM, month or monthly average)
1 9 6 2
Total
Mortgage and communal bonds
_57
I
1U3
189
32
259
3l0 625
30U
923
£32
U80
A52
7931,157
78U
1,575 1132
172
170
258
9981,329
95U
Shi
665 to
Total gross bond placements 3/ 1,212
Gross share placements
Total security placements
at issue value
1963
I
II III
112
72 113
31U 1 # # 8
——
' 32 — —
132 15U
M5
1,397
20b
IV
60
187
——
1,730
Mar,
lh9
69
98
187
Apr.
100
626
——
May
1U9
U17
——
200
121
all
"Occasional" borrowers bonds:
Industrial
Public authorities
Foreign issuers
Other bonds 2/
926
687
629
627
581
1390
3^68
1586 1337
1/ Market value c
2/ Mostly bonds of specialized credit institutionsc
3/ Includes medium-term notes (Kassenobligationen).
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank
~ * le V; 6,
After fluctuating within narrow limits during June, the F.A,Z, index
of general stocks dipped slightly from 183=92 to 178,96 at the end of the montht
The market continued to move indecisively during most of July but showed a tendency
to rise at the end of July and the first weeks of August, (See Table 3,)
The budget, The Budget bill wa<- finally passed and signed with the
expectation that the Federal Government-5 3 share in the collection of income and
corporation taxes would be raised from 35 to 38 per cent, with a further rise
scheduled for 196L = Total budgetary outlays for 1963 are to be DM 56=8 billion,
DM 1 billion less than foreseen in the bill passed earlier by the Bundestag
(lower House)= As finally passed, the budget bill had a shortfall of DM 1 billion
of receipts over expenditures, which actually makes the legality of the bill
questionable. The German budget, by law, must be balanced, which means that
provision for the financing of any deficit must be included in the bill. Since
the Bundestag rejected the compromise reapportionment of taxes bill (which would
have raised the Federal Government1s share of income taxes to the 38 per cent
necessary for balancing the 1963 Budget) the original bill raising the Government's
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Table 3«
Germany; FAZ Stock Index
(Dec, 31, 1958 = 100)
All time high:
1962 high:
1962 low:
March 15
29
April 16
30
May
17
31
Aug. 31 > I960
Jan.
2, 1962
Oct. 10,1962
26U„60
222.81
132.88
June
157.63
159.23
161+ • 67
163,65
183.50
18L.63
1963 high; May
13
1963 low: Feb. 26
7
1U
21
28
July
5
12
19
26
Aug.
2
9
188.83
151.5U
183.02
18U.36
183,92
178.96
180.31
180.39
179.13
181.23
181.90
18U.U0
-Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,
share to U0.5 per cent was resubmitted to the Bundesrat (which is made up of
representatives of the Laender) where it was rejected, as expected. Consequently,
the budget will remain unbalanced at least until October when Parliament reconvenes, This may mean that government borrowing requirements may be further
increased, putting further pressure on German interest rates.
Foreign trade position strengthening. After a low first quarter
(primarily owing to the bad weather and the U.S. dock strike), the foreign trade
results have become more favorable. (See Table U.) Exports rose steadily, and
in May were 11 per cent above their year-ago level. Imports, on the other hand,
declined in May and were only 3.5 per cent above the May 1962 figure. Consequently,
the May trade surplus was the largest in the post-war periode
In June, seasonally adjusted exports were 2,8 percent above the year
ago level while imports rose only 0.5 per cent over the same period. The German
trade surplus in June remained at the high level recorded in April,
The continuing rise in export orders suggests that the favorable export
performance may continue•
Balance of payments in substantial surplus. The German balance of payments continued to improve in the second quarter of 1963. The current account
balance reflected an improved trade balance resulting from increased exports and
a slower growth of imports•
The factor chiefly responsible for the payments surplus, however, was
the continued heavy flow of private capital into Germany. Purchases of German
stocks and bonds by non-residents brought large sums of money into the country,
especially in May* (See Table 5.) German industrial firms are also beginning to
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-6-
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Table 2w Germany: Foreign Trade
(seasonally adjusted, monthly .averages or month in billions of DM)
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
I
II
III
IV
U.36
U.UU
L.Wi
U.liO
a/ U.16
a/ U.05
U.18
U.19
a/ .20
a/ .39
.26
.21
1963
I
March
April
May
June
U.36
U.63
L.92
5.15
U.U2
L.12
U.51
U.61
U.25
U-.ll
*18
.31
»90
.31
.2h
a/ Change in import accounting procedure raised first quarter and April 1962
imports by DM ,20 billion each.
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report
borrow in foreign markets. Recently, a German chemical firr took up a $10 million
loan in New York at a reported cost of 5.25 per cent compared with a cost of over
6 per cent in Germany for a comparable loan. In May, Siemens and Halske, A.G.
floated a SF 60 million loan in Switzerland at a cost of U.50 per cent.
In June, moreover, there was a sudden, unexplained influx of short-term
capital totaling DM 268 million from£>road. Since German commercial banks had
actually substantially built up their positions abroad by the end of June, this
short-term capital movement does not represent any large scale repatriation of .
funds for window-dressing purposes. German banks were actually lenders on the
Euro-dollar market during that time.
German reserves continue to increase. The balance of payments surplus
was almost entirely reflected in an increase in the German reserve position,
(See Table 6.) The Bundesbank's holdings of gold and foreign exchange increased
by $253 million during the second quarter of 1963. Most of the increase occurred
in May. There was a further rise of $17 million in June and about $70 million
during the first half of July. The latter increase may have been connected with
payments for the foreign subscriptions to the Federal bond issue.
The commercial banks increased their foreign exchange holdings tyr $56
million during the second quarter of 1963. Almost the entire increase took place
in June. The build-up in the commercial banks foreign exchange position is a
reflection not only of the banks' lending operations during June but probably
also the result of the increased trade surplus,
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Table 5*
-7-
Germany: Balance of Payments 1961-June 1963
(in millions of DM)
1. GOODS & SERVICES
Trade balance
Services
Total
2. OFFICIAL PAYMENTS
Donations
long-term capital
Short-term capital
Total
1961
1962
6,191
3
6 M
3,m
-1,2m
2,200
-3,Wi8 -3,?U6
1,201 -1,305
-1,276
157
-37553 -C75E
3. PRIVATE CAPITAL
Securities transactions
Foreign purchases 1/
1,7^
German purchases ~
(increase-) 2/
- 207
Other long-tent
. 687
Short-term 3/
1,802
Errors and omissions
. 233
Total
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)
•>
5,857
_i
196 3
April
Ma ?
1*28
5UU
33 -116
312
377
June
656
- 3U
"522
188
-330
-TE5
-931
- 69
211
-7B9
-U79
-1 55
- 13
-Wi
-207
- 16
32
-151
-238
- 99
80
-2^7
7UI1
261t
338
267
20
Uoo
1,56L
78
231
1^53
12
190
U66
57
399
268
125
356
-1,130
8U1
131
830
261
1,522N
/
k
a/ Preliminary.
~
" ~~
5/ A change in import accounting procedure has resulted in approximately DM UOO
million of goods in bonded warehouses being included in the first four months
imports. This is offset in errors and omissions.
1/ Foreign purchases of German securities.
2/ German purchases of foreign securities.
3/ Includes commercial bank capital other than foreign exchange assets.
Source: Basic data from Bundesbank and International Financial Statistics
rearranged by author.
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-8-
Table 6» Germany: Change in Reserve Position
(in millions of U.S. dollars, end of period figures)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Bundesbank gold and foreign
exchange
Foreign exchange
Gold .
Total
Drawing rights on IMF
Commercial banks
foreign exchange
Total reserves (A+B+C)
Change in total reserves
Gold as percentage of
Bundesbank reserves
1 9 6 2
June Dec.
Feb.
Mar.
1 9 6 3
ART.
2566
3667
5233
138U
2768
3679
6UU7
1305
2587
3727
S3IE
1307
2698
3718
6UI46
2699
37U8
1307
1312
1028
Q6U5
-it
632
838U
85U
2507
-TTT5
8U7
8606
1
-
868
ESI
+
58.8% 57.1%
92
59.0%
58.1%
58.1%
June
2933
37U9
6686
1312
2916
3753
3599
1307
855
910
56.1%
m
56.0%
Sourcet' Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report; International Financial Statistics>
Foreign exchange market. As a result of the favorable external position,
the DM was in active demand in foreign exchange markets throughout the entire period.
(See Table 7 and Chart 8«) In June and July the DM was quoted close to the upper
limit at which the Central Bank is committed to intervene. A fairly large proportion of the foreign exchange accruals to the Bundesbank in May came from such
intervention. However, the demand for D-marks eased a round the middle of July and
the rate declined from 25.123 cents on July 12th to 25.100 on August 9th.
Table 7. Germany: Exchange Rate in U.S. Cents per DM
(noon buying rates)
Par value
Upper limit
Lower limit
-May
3
17
31
June 7
1U
28
25.065
25.102
25.105
25.113
25.12k
25.123
25.000
25.125
21.875
July
5
12
19
26
Aug.
2
9
Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin.
Europe and British Commonwealth Section.
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25.121
25.123
25.099
25.097
25.091
25.100
Table 8 . Germany: Selected Money Market Yields and Exchange Rates
(per cent per annum)
3-mo. Euro3-mo. inter- Spread
dollar deposits
bank loans
in favor
Frankfurt
London
London
1962-Augc
Sep,
Oct.
Nov,
Dec.
1963-Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
33
28
26
30
28
25
22
29
26
3
10
17
2k
31
June 7
Hi
21
28
July 5
3.81
3.81
U.13
3.9k
1.13
3.59
3.kk
3.69
3.72
3.7k
3.81
3.81
3.91
3.8k
3.91
3.81
3.78
3.81
3.91
3.19
з.19
k.5o
k.?5
и.uu
3.25
3.38
3.63
3.50
3.50
3.50
.56
3.
.69
3.
.69
3.
3.
.75
3°.81
3.88
3.88
6.06
Jil
+0,62
+0.62
-0,37
-0.31
-0.31
+0.3U
+0.06
+O0O6
+0.22
0.2k
0.31
0.28
0.22
3—mo. TJ0S0 $
into Marks
Bundes-%
bank -/ Market
+0.75
+0.5 0
+0:50
+0.50
+0.50
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
-0.10
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
+0.75
-0.15
+0.12
+0.75
0.25
0.16
0.03
-0.0k
3-mo. Treas. bills
+0.7
+0.5
+0.8
+0.2
+0.5
+0.3
0.0
+0.1
0,0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
—0 »k
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.0
+0.12
%
n.a.
+0.75
U.00
+0,1^
+0,75
tO ml
_2fi_
a/ Special swap rate provided by Bundesbank to domestic commercial banks for
2-6 month period.
Table 9.
Germany: Selected Loan, Deposit and Security Rates
(per cent per annum)
~
6-12 mo. deposits
Comm.
bank
,
loans y
Savings
Time
1962 - March
April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,
1963 — Jan
Feb..
March
April
May
June
Julv
a/ Approved
7.50
7.50
7,50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
7.<0
credits on current account.
Bond yields
5-1/2% Public
Railway author1958-83 ities
5.62
5.57
5.72
5.77
5.77 .
5.83
5.92
6.0k
6.1k
6.08
5.99
5.99
5.99.
5.97
6.00
6.03
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.2
6.2
6.1
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
n.a.
Share
Yields
2.65
2.77
3.23
3.k9
3.71
3.58
3-79
3.89
3.3k
3.kk
3.58
3.75
3.63
3.56
3.19
n.a.
Yield
SaP
3.0
,2.8
2.6
2,3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.8
2.7
2.k
2.2
2.k
2.k
2.8
n.a.
Chorl 1
INTEREST
ARBITRAGE,
UNITED
STAT E S / C A N A D A
figi
3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL
RATES
-Ml
RATE
DIFFERENTIAL
AND
FORWARD
CANADIAN
DOLLAR
r i^
! RATE
DIFFERENTIAL
WITH
FORWARD
FORWARD RATf
\
EXCHANGE
COVERS
NET INCENTIVE IN FAVOR OF CANADA +
L
1960
1961
19 6 2
X X
19 63
INTEREST ARB1TRAGE, N E W
3-MONTH
TREASURY
1
YORK/LONDON
BILL RATES
LONDON
1
1
l
1
i
1
1
1
1
!
1
R A 1"E D I F F E R S N T I A L A N t ) 3 - M O N T H FOR [ W A R D STE R L1N (
-
i
-
-
Vv
FAVOR
N
r—
v-~\
r-.Lz"7^ v
z
\
V'
-
\
\
\
i
i
1 1
1 1 1 1 II
v-~*
/ I I I
\
1
A'
1 1 l1 1 1 1
\ r ~
J
-
r-
i
-
for
d"*|
-
1 1 1 1 11
i i
1 1 1 1 11
!
i
1
I
r
1
1
!
i
1
RAliE DIFFERE NTIAIL WITH FO RW AR:D EX CHANIGE C OVER!
-
j
IN FAVOR OF
v'
IN FA VOR
11
M
J
0
'19*60
M
J
19 61
S
D
M
-
-
Ha
I
1 •
NEW YO
iRK
OF
I1 11 1I 1! I| 11 11 ir
S
11
}'
| |
S
19 62
| |
D
| |
"«
| |
J
11
S
19 63
| |
INTEREST
Friday
ARBITRAGE
FOR
GERMAN
COMMERCIAL
BANKS
fj g u r
3-MONTH
TREASURY
EURO-DOLLAR
BILLS,
DEPOSIT
INTERBANK
RATES
LENDING
[
RATE
AND
!
GERMAN INTERBANK
J " LOAN RATE "
RATE
DIFFERENTIAL
AND
FORWARD
DEUTSCHE
MARK
DISCOUNT ( — )
RATE
DIFFERENTIAL
WITH
FORWARD
EXCHANGE
COVER
IN FAVOR Of E R A N K f U R T { + )
1961
i
1962
1963
INTEREST
3—MONTH
ARBITRAGE,
TREASURY
FRANKFURT
BILLS
AND
/
L O N D O N
INTERBANK
LENDING
RATES
GERMAN TREASURY BILLS
J__L.
RATE
DIFFERENTIAL
AND
3—MONTH
FORWARD
STERLING
/ ' V V ' ~ \ x v G E R M A N TREASURY BILLS.
3 ' ~
GERMAN INTERBANK LOAN RATE
V
I—
A
. / v I J
1 J 1 J. J 1-J 1
RATE
DIFFERENTIAL
WITH
A/—
FORWARD
EXCHANGE
COVER
Per cent
p e i
SHORT-TERM
INTEREST
RATES #
1 - L L I
I I I I I k l A J J
icepl Japan (3 month interbank deposit rale) and Switzerland (3 month depot
"A" 3 month treasury bi
f Tmo^ra.e^or 'u
I I I -JLI I I 1 I I I I I 1 1 1
dollar di
i
L O N G - T E R M B O N D YIELDS
vY/-
./
-V-
I N D U S T R I A L STOCK I N D I C E S
1 9 5 8 = 100
SWITZERLAND
S P O T E X C H A N G E RATES - M A J O R C U R R E N C I E S A G A I N S T U . S . D O L L A R
Per
Above
v-
kkk
cen,
par
3 - M O n t h
Friday
FORWARD
EXCHANGE
RATE
figures
AGAINST
Per c e n t
U
OLLAR S
PREMIUM . +
GERMAN MARK
DISCOUNT
AGAINST
POUND
STERLING
-
- LONDON
PREMIUM +
GERMAN MARK
\
V . V L SWISS f R A N C
4
AGAINST
POUND
STERLING
-
LONDON
PREMIUM +
DUTCH GUILDER
I
I
J *
BELGIAN FRANC
^
FRENCH FRANC
DISCOUNT
-
p e r_ a n n u m
@FedFRASER