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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.3 (402) For Immediate release October 17, 1984 CAPACITY UTILIZATION Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities, and Industrial Materials Capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and utilities fell 0.7 percentage point in September to 81.9 percent. This decline brought the industrial utilization rate below its 1967-82 average of 82,4 percent. For the third quarter as a whole the industrial utilization rate was 82.4 percent, up from 81.7 percent one quarter earlier and from 77.3 percent a year earlier. All three major components of the total index decreased in September. Manufacturing, the dominant component, fell by 0.7 percentage point, utilities by 0.5 percentage point, and mining by 0.1 percentage point. The decrease in utilization was broad-based with durable manufacturing accounting for the larger part of the decline. In part because of a strike, motor vehicle manufacturing played a major role in the overall September fall off. The drop in this industry's capacity utilization was 5.4 percentage points to 82.5 percent, still above its 1967-82 average of 78.6 percent. In contrast, the utilization rate for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment rebounded from an August fall of 0.5 percentage point to a September gain of 0.7 percentage point. Utilization rates for industrial materials fell 1.1 percentage points in September to 82.0 percent, which was more than one percentage point below its 1967-82 average. Durable goods materials, especially metals, led the decline. Capacity Utilization: Summary Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Series Total Industry 1973 BIGH 1975 LOW 1978 -80 HIGH 1982 LOU 1967 -82 A¥ER. 1984 «J0M£ I JOLY A0G S SEP 88.4 7K1 87,3 69.6 82.4. 82,1 82.7 82.6 81.9 Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 87*9 87*9 89.1 69.0 67.6 71.0 87*5 89.4 87.2 68.8 64*8 73.8 81.8. 80.5. 83.9. 82.2 81.7 82.9 82.9 82.6 83.1 82-8 82.9 82.8 82,1 82.0 82.3 Mining Utilities 91,8 94*9 86-0 32.0 90.4 86.3 69.6 79.0 86.5. 88.6. 76.6 85.4 78.1 84.1 77.5 84.1 77.4 83.6 92,6 69.3 88.9 66.6 83.3. 82.9 83. 1 83.1 82.0 Industrial Materials CAPACITY UTILIZATION SEPTEMBER DATA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, PERCENT 110 TOTAL INDUSTRY TOTAL MATERIALS 90 70 50 110 MINING UTILITIES 90 70 50 110 MANUFACTURING REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 70 50 110 HOTOR VEHICLES ANO PARTS 90 70 50 30 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 MANUFACTURING, MINING AND UTILITIES Table 1 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 Series HIGH 1975 LOW Total Industry 86. Manufacturing 4 87.9 Primary processing Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Autos Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. instruments Nondurable manufacturing Foods Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products 93. 7 85. 5 87. 88. 103. 99. 1967 YEAfi -82 AGO AVER. 1 MONTH 1 71.1 J T978 | 1982 I LOW I -80 1 1 HIGH i | 69.6 87.3 82.4 69.0 | 87.5 ! 68.8 68.2 69.4 1 91.4 | 66.2 | 8 5 . 9 | 70.0 9 0 3 0 se- 3 3 88. 7 98. 7 81 76-0 89.6 67.6 64.0 69.2 60.8 65.7 71.8 62.3 51.3 MA 68.0 73.7 1 7 4 7 2 1 4 71.0 77.2 61.3 69. 1 65.9 84.6 62.1 89. 85. 95. 96. 86. 99. 97. i i I I 89-4 | 90-4 | 97-5 | 98.2 | | 90.0 83. 1 S | 90.6 S 94.5 | ! 91.6 I 93.9 | [ 92.3 87.2 85.2 91.3 95. 1 83.6 93.0 91.5 1984 JAS | FIB 1 HAfi I APE 1 flA' JUNE] JDLXI AUG 1 78.2 80.1 80.7 80.9 81.3 81. 5 82. 1 82.7 82. 6 81 . 9 81-8 78.4 80.1 80-9 81.0 81.5 81. 7 82.2 82.9 82. 8 82 . 1 34.0 80.6 79.7 77.8 80.6 80.0 82.2 80.4 82.2 80.6 82.2 81.0 82. 4 81.2 82.6 81.9 82.4 83.1 81. 9 83. 2 81 . 2 82 . 5 76.0 75-3 65.1 76.0 71.3 68.8 86.5 78.9 80-5 68.7 75.9 79-2 77.9 67.6 77.8 73.4 73.2 89.9 87.1 83.6 71.7 77.4 80.1 79.0 72.3 81.2 73.9 73.7 91.1 86.1 83.3 73.1 77.7 80.4 78.7 71.3 81.6 74.9 74.0 91.4 86-6 84.1 72.9 78.0 80.9 78.4 71.5 85.4 75.1 75.3 91.9 84.4 79.2 73.6 78.6 81. 0 78.6 71. 5 83.8 75. 6 76. 9 91. 3 84. 7 77. 9 73. 3 78. 8 81.7 77.9 72.0 83.3 76.7 78.2 91.4 85.7 79.6 74.6 80.0 82.6 78.3 66.4 85.2 77.6 79.9 93.1 87.4 80.8 76.5 81. 1 82. 9 77.8 65. 8 83. 3 77. 2 81. 3 92.9 87.9 77. 9 76. 0 81. 1 82 . 0 76 . 3 80 . 6 92 . 3 82 . 5 70 . 0 76 . 7 81 . 3 83.9 83.3 86.2 89.6 78.7 89.6 88.3 81.5 78.8 91.2 j 96.3 72.2 77.3 92.0 81.1 78.7 88.0 96.7 70.7 73.9 93.0 81.8 78.8 86.9 99.0 71.6 79.5 93.1 81.8 79.1 87.4 97.1 71.6 79.3 94.0 82.3 79.9 85.0 96.0 72.5 79.4 94.6 82. 4 80. 2 85. 1 96. 7 72.3 80. 2 95.7 82.9 80.5 84.9 96.7 73.2 80. 1 97.1 83. 1 80.8 84.1 97.3 73.8 78.5 96.6 82. 8 82 . 3 84. 96. 73. 78. 95. 80.5 64.8 63.0 78.4 38.8 | 8 2 . 3 83.8 62.1 79.6 60.7 61.6 79.8 74-7 80.0 46.1 78.6 MA 35-8 69.1 78. 1 73.1 83-5 1 73.8 76.5 73.0 | 84.2 64.0 71.5 74.0 I 3 0 9 9 8 SEP 78 . 3 Mining 91. 8 < 86.0 90.4 69.6 86.5 j 70.8 ! 75.4 74.9 74.7 74.3 75- 4 76.6 78.1 77. 5 77 . 4 Utilities Electric utilities 94. 9 97. 6 82.0 82.1 86.8 87.0 79.0 77.9 88.6 j 89.8 84.8 83.9 84.8 84.0 82.5 81.0 84.0 82.6 85.0 83.6 84. 7 83. 1 85.4 84.0 84. 1 82.3 84-1 82.2 83 . 6 81 . 6 II I I I 1983 I I I IV 1984 I | Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Series 1983 I I I OUTPUT 1984 I IV 1 1 m i 1983 I I I 163.1 165.7 196.4 II ckikcj.il 1984 I IV : 201.1 77.3 I 78.81 80.5 81.7 82.4 197.5 198.4J 199.5 201-0 202. 5J 77.4 78.9J 80.7 81.8 82.6 195.3 198.6 195.81 196.5 199.7| 201. 1 197-2 203.0 198.0 204.9 78.3 76.9 79.9J 78.2j 81.7 80.3 82.4 81.4 82.0 82.9 186. 1 201.1 120. 1 148.4 178.3 229.6 225.7 191.7 167.8 145.2 215.1 186.81 201.9! 120. 1| 148.4| 179.01 231.0J 227.4J 190.7J 167.3J 146.31 216.21 187.8 203.0 119.0 148.4 179.8 232.0 230.4 190.9 168.7 147.2 217. 1 189.1 204.4 116.7 148.4 180.6 232.6 234.9 192.3 170.5 148. 1 217.9 190.4 74.7 73.8 62.5 74.7 70.3 68.2 84.7 76.1 78.8 68.3 75.1 76.9J 75.7| 66.0j 78.61 71.6J 70.0J 87.91 80.8} 78.7J 70.41 75.7| 79.9 78.5 70.4 80.2 74.0 73.6 90.8 86.6 83.6 72.6 77.7 81.2 78.3 71.7 84.2 75.8 76.8 91.5 84.9 78.9 73.8 79. 1 82.5 213.9 200.2 163.2 176.9 309.4 162.1 337.7 215.01 201.71 163.01 177.4J 312.11 161.31 216.5 203.1 163.7 178.5 314.0 160.4 342.3 218.2 204-6 165.2 180.1 315.1 159.4 349.1 80,7 7S.5 90.4 95.0 71.4 76.6 90.2 81.3| 78.1| 89.8| 96.5J 72.11 75. 1J 91.9J 61.6 78.9 87.5 97.6 71.3 77.6 93.4 82.5 80.2 85.0 96. 5 72.7 79.9 95.8 82.3 73.11 75.0 75.4 77.7 84.01 82.8} 83.8 82.5 85.0 83.6 83.9 82.0 I 155.51 159. 3 Manufacturing 152.8 156.5J I 156. 156.4J 1| 161. 0 164.4 167.3 152.8 152.8 160. 5 161. 7 162.5 165.2 162.3 169.9 139.1 148.5 75.0 110.9 125.4 156.6 191.1 145.8 132.3 99.2 161.5 143.8J 152.81 79.21 116-6| 128.2| 161.81 200-01 154.21 132.11 103.0J 163.5J 150. 2 159- 5 83. 7 119- 0 133. 1 170- 8 209.4 165. 5 141.2 106. 8 168. 7 153.6 160.1 83.7 124.9 136.9 178.6 215.0 163.4 134.5 109.4 172.4 157.1 172.7 159.1 147.6 168.0 220.9 124.2 304.6 174.81 157-51 146.51 171-21 225.0J 121.11 311.41 176- 7 160. 2 143. 2 174. 2 223.8 124. 5 319. 8 180.1 164.1 140.4 173.7 229.1 127.4 334.4 182.0 Mining 116.1 1 1 2 1 . 0| 124- 2 125.1 129.0 165. 4 338.51 165.51 165.7 165.9 166.1 70.2 Utilities Electric utilities 178.2 203.6 178.4| 203.0) 179. 2 203-8 183.1 208.0 182.0 205.9 211.1 243.0 1 213.8 244191 246.9 215.3 248.9 216.8 251.0 84.4 83.8 Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Autos Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. instruments Nondurable manufacturing Foods Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products 139.8 187-9 222-5 166.5 131.4 113.9 177.5 124.5 III 199.7 151.8 Primary processing Advanced processing II 197. 3 I 198.4 Total Industry 181.4 233.1 239.3 193.8 172.3 149.0 218.8 220.0 158.5 77.0 80.6 93.0 86.0 76.2 76.4 81. 1 78.6 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS Table 3 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 HIGH Series Industrial Materials IEAB ] AGO J HONTH| ! 1984 JAN | FEB | HAB | APE | HAY | JOSE| JOLII AOG f SEP 92.6 1967 | 1975 1 1978 1982 -82 - 8 0 | LOS i SIGH | I AVER.I i 66.6 83.3 69.3 | 88.9 78.6 J 80.6 81.9 82.2 82.5 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.1 82.0 LOW 91.4 \ 63.5 ! 88.4 59-8 79.7 I 75.2 J 78.5 80.5 80.7 81-5 81-5 82.0 82.5 82.7 81.0 Metal materials 97.8 66.0 95.4 46.2 82.2 65.5 67.3 71.1 71.5 73.0 72.2 72.1 70.8 70.4 67.6 Raw steel Aluminum 107.1 96.8 68.0 I 73.4 102.9 97.9 40-2 I 57-9 84.8 90.6 63.3 73.6 70.0 79.8 74.0 82.0 72-6 84.3 74.5 85.7 74.2 87.0 68.9 86.6 66.2 83.6 62.9 82.5 94.4 67.4 91.7 86.5 82.9 81.9 83.0 83.6 83.2 83.9 83.3 83.2 82.9 82.5 95.1 ! 65.4 92-3 86.5 82.6 81.5 82.8 83.1 82.7 83.3 82.6 82.7 82.5 82.0 93.4 | 99.0 t 99.3 99.4 | 72.4 | 97.9 ! 86.3 91.3 | 64.0 | 8 5 . 1 I. 77.8 I 76.7 95.5 | 6 4 . 2 99.0 78.6 96.8 79.5 98.5 78.9 99.8 79.0 99.8 78.4 101.1 78.4 98.7 78.4 84.1 84.1 84.5 84.3 85.0 85.2 84.9 Durable goods materials • Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper, and chemical materials Paper materials Chemical materials 94.5 Energy materials I 70-7 I ! 68.6 I I I | 84.4 i 88.9 \ 78.5 | 88.5 I 81.6 84.4 84.3 L Table 4 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Series 1983 III 150.3) 157.6 • 93.81 97.3 1 82.81 84. 5 128.64 137.5 162.0 163. 71 196.0 183.51 183*7 I 193.21 193- 2 186.6 186, 195.9 162.8 227.8 167.4| 165.8 235. QJ 236.7 1 168.5 240.4 1 166.9 298.3 127.4 127.81 131.2 132. 4 1 133. 11 154.7 144. 2 89-3 Raw steel Aluminum 72.7 119.0 179. 1 Paper materials Chemical materials Energy materials III! 163. 2 i 193.4 Metal materials Textile, paper and chemical materials I I 1983 III 162.1 149.9 Durable goods materials OUTPUT 1984 If I 1 154.3] 158.8 1 188.0 100.3 I I 79.6| 198. 3 199, 5 | 73.6 1 i 76.5J 138.5 137..91 63.9 219.6 2 2 0 . 6 | 221.8 223. 4 2 3 2 . 7 | 234.2 236.2 1 6 7 - 7 | 168*5 3 0 0 . 1 | 302.3 I 169.5 305.2 1 5 5 . 3 | 155.8 156.4 t Groupings. Estimates of capacity and industrial production for manufacturing industries are aggregated to primary processing and advanced processing Industries, to durable and nondurable manufacturing industries, and to total manufacturing. The mining, manufacturing, and utilities estimates aggregate to the total index. Industrial materials are Items produced and used as inputs by manufacturing plants, mines, and utilities. Industrial materials include many of the items included in the primary processing grouping of manufacturing, as well as some of the output of the advanced processing industries, mines, and utilities—such as iron ore, crude oil, semiconductors, and electricity sold to industry. UTILIZATION 1984 I? I 77.5 196.21 231.6 83-1 144.9 0| 139.8 I 1 118.8 167.7 1983 III 197. 2 | 114.6 167.7 96. 1 1 IIII 195.9 196.51 197-1 1 139-61 139-1 J 117. 1 167*7| 167.7 Definition. This release contains estimates of output, capacity, and capacity utilization for the nation's factories, mines, and electric and gas utilities. Estimates of actual output and capacity output are expressed as percentages of 1987 actual output. Estimates of capacity utilization are calculated as ratios, In percent, of the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted Indexes of Industrial production to the Indexes of capacity. The capacity Indexes are based on a variety of data, Including capacity data in physical units, surveys of capacity growth and utilization rates, and estimates of capital stock growth. Instead of a formal definition of capacity the concept of practical capacity is applied, which Is the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work pattern, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate machinery and equipment in place. When the capacity indexes for Individual industries are aggregated—for example to total manufacturing—no explicit account is taken of possible general equilibrium constraints such as emerging industry bottlenecks. CAPACITY 1984 I? I 1 194.7 194.01 I I I I I 81. 6 82.7 82. 8 79. 9 81.7 82. 0 70. 0 72.4 69. 6 61.2 70.9 67.2| 1 69.9| 76.7| 72. 2 82. 0 72.5 86.4 225. 21 81.5 83.2J 82. 8 83.5 82. 9 238. 2 | 81.2 83.0| 82. 5 82.9 82. 4 1 1 97.5 76.4 98. 4 78. 3 99-4 78.8 1 157.01 § 82.3 99.8| 78.31 1 1 82.3! 84. 2 84.6 1 j 84.8 1 Perapeetive. The historical highs and lows In capacity utilization shown In the tables above are specific to • • c h series and did not all occur In the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total manufacturing, utilization rates as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime. Revisions. The first estimates for a month are published about the 17th of the following month. These estimates may revise in each of the next three months as new data become available. After the fourth month no further revisions are undertaken until an annual or benchmark revision. The median of the revisions in the total manufacturing utilization rate between the first and fourth estimate is 0.3 of a percentage point; that is, in about half of the cases, the absolute value of the revision from the first to the fourth estimate is less than 0.3 of a percentage point. Sources. The methodology used to estimate the series is discussed in New Federal Reserve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utilization, Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1983. Revised data from 1967-82 are included in the statistical supplement to the July 1983 capacity utilization release, which may be obtained from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551. Rounding. The rounding algorithms applied to the capacity, output, and utilization rate series are independent. Aggregates are derived from unrounded detailed components. Release schedule for 1984. Approximately 11 a.m. on February 16, March 16, April 16, May 16, June 18, July 16, August 16, September 17, October 17, November 16, and December 17.
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