Full text of G.3 Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities and Industrial Materials : February 17, 1987

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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
G.3 (402)

For immediate release

CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities, and Industrial Materials

February 17, 1987

Capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and utilities increased
0.2 percentage point to 79,7 percent in January; it had risen 0.5 percentage
point during the two preceding months after five months of little change* In
January, utilization rates rose most for fabricated metal products and petroleum products; moreover, the already high rate for textile, paper, and chemical materials rose 0.7 percentage point further. The largest decline was for
automobile assemblies, which retraced part of their December advance, and the
rate for energy materials fell a percentage point.
Although the January utilization rate for total industry was the
highest since last February, it was about 2 percentage posits below the peak
for this expansion, which was attained in the summer of 1984, and that high
only equalled the average utilization rate for the 1967-86 period. The
January operating rate in manufacturing, at 80.3 percent, was near the average
rate for 1967-1986, but utilization rates in mining and utilities were about
14 and 7 percentage points, respectively, below their 1967-1986 averages.
Within manufacturing the January rate for nondurables increased 0.3 percentage point to 85.4 percent, approximately 2 percentage points above its average
for the last 20 years. In contrast the rate for durables, which rose 0.2
percentage point in January, remained nearly 2 percentage points below its
20-year average.

Capacity Utilization: S u m m a r y
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
Series

Big*

Low

-60

1982
LOW

HigA

1967
-ttb
A?g.

1986
OCT I

VGY i

DSC I

JAU

1987

88.6

72.1

86.9

69.5

81.5

79.0

79.4

79.5

7*,7

Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable

87-7
87.4
88.3

69,9
67.9
71.3

86.5
86.3
87*0

68.0
63.7
74.4

80-*
78.6
83. S

79.6
76.3
84.7

7.9.8
76.5
84.8

80.1
76.7
85.1

80. J
7o.9
85.4

Mining
Utilities

92.8
95.6

87.8
82.9

95.2
88. $

76.9
78.0

87.1
87.5

72.5
79.3

73.4
80.5

72.5
80.4

72.7
SO.2

92.0

70.5

89.1

68.4

77,8

78.4

78.4

7tf,4

Total Industry

Industrial Materials




CAPACITY UTILIZATION

JANUARY DATA

SEASONALLY AOJUSTED, PERCENT

110
TOTAL INDUSTRY
TOTAL MATERIALS
90

70

I. 1 1 1 1 1

50
110

MINING
UTILITIES

90

,'

v

>

\ /
MANUFACTURING \ ^ /

70

50
110
MANUFACTURING
ELECTRICAL
MACHINERY
90

NONDURABLE

70

I I I I I I I I I" I I I
MOTOR VEHICLES
AND PARTS

30
1972

1975




1978

1981

1984

1987

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

MANUFACTURING, MINING AND UTILITIES
Table 1

Capacity Utilization
Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity
1973 | 1975 1 1978 1 1982 | 1967 1 1986 |
Series
High 1 Lov 1 -80 1 Lotf 1 -86 1 JAH 1
I
1 tiiyn |
4
Avq. 1
1
1
1
1
1
69.51 81.51 80.9!
Total Industry
88.61 7 2 . 1 |
1 86.91
1
•
I
1
Manufacturing
87.7|
b*.9|
00.Ui
86.5!
80. 61 8 0 . d|
1
89.11 65.11 81.81 84.41
Primary processing
91.9|
68.31
Advanced processing
86.0|
71.1|
85.11 69.51 80.01 7 9 . 2 |

Nondurable manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Textile mill products
Paper and products
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Other nondurabies
Mining
Utilities
Electric utilities

1

83.2
78. U

83.7
77.6

as. a
77.8

84.4
77.7

84.71
?7.91

76.3
81.7
67.2
60.7
77.2
79.1
71.4
71.5
80.0
76.1
87.1
80.5
83.0

76.2
81.6
67.1
59.9
78.3
79.*
71.*
71.5
77.7
70.2
88.7
80.4
83.2

76.4
82.8
67.8
60.4
79.3
o0.2
70.2
71.2
80.5
77.0
89.0
80. 0
84.0

76.3
80.2
bd.O
61.6
77.8
81,0
70.6
71.4
76.8
73.7
89.4
78.9
84.9

76.5
81.8
70.5
64.3
80.0
80.1
70.2
71.5
77.2
74.1
89.3
79.1
85.6

76.71
82.3)
68.71
61.7!
79.41
81.0J
69.6!
72.11
79.71
79.91
88.91
79.5!
86.11

74.4|
76.5|
70.61
80.81
67.6!
69.71
71.2!
78.91

84.1
78.9
90. 1
93.6
79.6
93.9
85.0
87.2

7
3
91. 1
96.2
81. 1
90. 1
85. 9
87. 3

84. d
78.9 •
91.6
96.b
80.9
89.0
87.4
87.9

85.0
79.1
92. ft
9b. 8
81.0
92.3
87.0
8 7. j

d4.3
78.5
93.6
95.4
d0.5
91./
86.3
bb.1

84.7
77.9
93.7
95.8
80.4
89.6
87.5
88.4

84. d
77.9
95.1
96.8
79.6
90.0
87.9
88.6

76.91

87.11

75.5

74.

9

73-:>

73.1

72.9

72.5

73.4

78.01
78.21

87.51
88.41

81.61
j
82.71
81.5!
i

79.3
82.2

79. 2
83.0

79.9
84.3

78.8
82.1

78.7
82.2

79.3
82.7

80.5
83.4

85.11
7a.21
94.9|
98.0|
79.91
91.11
88.1!
88.71
I
72.51
I
80.41
83.51
i

87.81
82.9|
83.0|

82.9
78.4

75. 7
82.7
65. 1
57. 1
77. 6
79. 8
70. 5
70. 1
79. 7
79. 3
87. 0
79. 7
82.9

71.81
77.61
58.91
67.7!
69.2|
83.71
59.5!
72.31

92.8|
95.61
98.71

82.7
77.7

7o«3
82.4
68.1
58.9
82.5
79.7
71.1
71.5
78.4
75.6
87.3
80.2
83.5

1
88.8|
85.81
92.11
95.6|
88.61
99.6J
97.51
86.41

87.01
85.11
88.31
92.71
d^. 91
91.71
89.41
92.41
1
9^>.2l
1
88-51
87.61

82.9
78.0

79. 0

78.41
83.0!
74.71
69.91
82.2)
81.8!
73.7|
72. 11
84.5|
83.81
87.21
82.01
83.31
I
84.51
78.7J
87.51
94.61
80.31
92.81
86.51
88.3|

63.71
62.91
45.81
37.6!
60.81
61.31
62.91
66.91
47.0!
36.61
70.71
77.81
69.11

87.4|
89.3|
101.91
105.81
95.6|
85.01
89.01
d5.7j
97.1)
1
77.01
89.21
87.71

7*.4

I JUL 1 AUG 1 SiiP 1 OCT I MOV 1 D£C 1 JAM
1
79.51 79.7
79.4
79.0 79.0
79.2
79.2
•
du.ii 80.3
7*.6
79.0
79.8
79.3 79.7
79.7

i JUK

79.1

78.6)
78.01
79.61
78.5!
81.21
78.0|
78.11
78.01
78.01
1
77.0!
83.21
81.81
1
83.5!
82.21
84.91
88.71
78.71
87.81
84.7)
86.11

67.91
86.3!
67.11
86.61
67.01
97.11
66.61 100.il
62.11
91.11
87.4!
64.71
80. 0|
68.2|
63.7|
89.91
52. 7 J 93. Jl
1 9J.3J
69.61
87.11
74.94
88.91
69.0|
81.01

1

Durable manufacturing
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metals
Iron and steel, subtotal
Nonferrous metals, subtotal
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles and parts
Automobiles
Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp.
Instruments
Other durables

198,6
MAY

1

1

1

76.9
68.4
81.8
69.9
71.9
80.1
76.5
88.7
79.4
86.6

i

84.
79.

85.4

92.0
88.9
72.7
80.2
83.0

Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization
Quarterly, seasonally adjusted
04

Total Industry

OUTPUT
1986
01
03
Q2
1
124.7|125.0 124.4 125.0

125.91

CAPACITY
1986
01
Q2
Q3
1
155.4|156.3 157.1 157.*

Manufacturing

127.41128.4 128.4 129.4

130.41

110.31111.5 111.) 112.1
137.81138.5 13d. 9 139.7

113.91
140. 41

166.4
145.8
109.8
102.2
124.1
133.6
198.7
232.2
138.6
143.1
166.1
174.9
152.8

167.3
146.0
109.4
101.5
124.2
133.7
200.2
233.7
139.2
142.7
166.9
176.6
153.9

168.21
147.^1
108.91
100.71
124.41
133.81
201.7!
235.2!
139.71
142.21
167.61
178.31
155.01

154.5
169.4
123.6
142.3
165.2
101.9
176.5
150.9

155.6
170.7
123.8
143.2
166.0
101.8
178.7
152.1

156.01
172.0(
124.01
144. 11
166.9)
101.7!
180.9!
153.41

Series

1985
Q4

1
1
1

1985
Q4

79.3

159.51160.5 161.4 162.4 163.41

79.91 80.0

79.5

79.7

79.8

U4.0 134.6 13:>. I)
177.9 179.1 1dO.«|

1 d3.5
d2.o| 78.4
78. of

82.9
76.0

83.3
78.0

84.3
77.8

77.7!
d1.2J
74.31
70.0!
81.01
80.91
73.21
72.81
81.o)
75.91
85.31
81.41
82.11

77.5
82.6
72.3
66.7
81.1
81.2
72.8
71.7
82.3
81.2
86.5
81.9
83.1

76.4
82.9
68.1
60.0
80.6
80.1
70.9
71.2
79.8
78.4
87.2
80.5
83.2

76.3
82.1
67.4
60.3
78.3
79.5
70.9
71.4
79.4
74.5
88.3
80.3
83.4

76.5
81.4
69.1
62.6
79.1
80.7
70.1
71*7
77.9
75.9
89.2
79.2
85.5

83.21
78.il
88.11
92.01
78.21
86.21
86.81
07.2}

83.8
78.7
88.0
93.9
79.9
09.3
85.9
86.8

84.3
79.0
90.4
94.7
80.4
91.2
84.8
87.3

84.7
78.8
92.6
96.3
80.8
91.0
86.9
87.1

84.8
78.0
94.5
96.9
80.0
90.2
87.8
88.6

60.91 79.6

75.6

73.2

72.8

d 3 . 2 | 81.1
82.61 81.3

7*.5
82.5

79.1
82.9

80.1
83.2

127.1
120.8
74.8
©1.4
100.0
107.?
140.9
165.3
110.6
112.2
144.8
140.9
127.2

127.7
120.3
73.7
61.2
97.2
106.3
142.0
166.9
110.5
106.2
147. 3
141.8
128.4

128.7!
120. H
75.21
63.0!
98. 4 i
107.91
141.51
168.61
108.81
107.91
149.51
141.21
132.61

Nondurable manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Textile mill products
Paper and products
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Other nondurabies

126.8|128.6
131.01132.3
108.5(108.6
129.31132.8
127.91131.3
88.21 9 1 - 1
149.5|149.7
129.41129.9

130.2
133.8
111.8
134.8
132.8
93.0
149.7
1J1.8

131.8
134.6
114.7
137.9
134.1
92.6
1b5.3
132.5

132.91
134.21
117.21
139.61
133.4J
91.71
158.9J
135.81

152.4J 153.5
166.71168.1
123.2! 123.4
140.bl 141.4
163.41164.3
102.31 102.0
172.1-1 174.3
148.41 149.6

107.11105.4

99.9

96.6

95.91

Utilities
Electric utilities

112.81110.5 108-9 108.8 110.61
120.6! 119.6 122-2 123.5 124.8!

1

132.51 132.4 132.1 131.9 131.71
1
•
135.71 136.3 136.9 137.5 138.11
146.O| 147.1 "148.1 149.0 150.0!

Note. Oata for output are percentages of 1977 output as shown in the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production. Capacity is also expressed as a percentage of




Q4

79.1

127.$| 128.3
117.01119.9
82.21 7 9 . 7
72.61 6 8 . 7
100.31100.5
107.91108.4
144.31143.5
166.#1165.4
111.81113.7
108.4|116.6
140.61143.0
139.61141.8
123.61126.0

Mining

1
158.71

UTILIZATION
1986
Q2
U3
m
79.2

Durable manufacturing
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metals
Iron and steel, subtotal
Nonferrous metals, subtotal
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles and parts
Automobiles
Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp.
Instruments
Other durables

1 '

198*
04

do.o

133.1!133.6
175.31176.7
•
164.5)165.5
144.11 144.9
110.61110.2
103.71103.0
123.81123.9
133.4|133.5
195.71 197.2
228.91230.7
137.0) 136.1
142.91 143.6
164.7| 165.4
171.5|173.2
150.6J 151.7

Primary processing
Advanced processing

1
1

1977 actual output. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to
capacity.

INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS
Tables

Capacity Utilization
Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of c

Textile, paper, and chemical materiais

Table 4

Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization
Quarterly, seasonally adjusted
OOTPUT
Series

1985
*4

1986
Q1

Durable goods materials
Metal materiais
Raw steel
Aluminum
Nondurable goods materials
Textile, paper and chemical materials
Pulp and paper materiais
Chemical materials
Energy materials

U3

4
i

a*
4
114.3)114.5 1U.3 113.4 114.0!
1
4
t
4
121.1)120.9 118.8 118. 8 120.04
I
82.6| 79.0 75.1 73.1 75.94
1
68.6| 71.4 66.2 60.0 58.61
78.6| 79.1 77.7 68.1 70. 3(
1
1
4
4
119.7 120.74
113.94115.7 116.9
I
I
114.04116.2 117.0 120.4 121.6*
t
1
124.84128.8 130.1 135.1 135.04
113.4411S.J 115.4 117.7 119.54
4
4
1
100.6 98.6 97.8)
1u2.6|102*2
1
4
!

Industrial Materials

Q2

LPACXTI
1985 1986
Q3
Q4
Q\
Q2
4
144.7 145.3
143.64 144.2
4
159.04159.9 160.7 161.5
1
115.51115.0 114.5 114.0
1
102.71101.8 100.9 99.9
114.7)113.2 111.4 109.7
1
4
138.64139.0 139.5 139.9
1
138.0.4138.41 138.8 139.2
1
136.54U7.3 138.1 138.9
143.64144.9 144.3 144.7

4
Q4

4

0TX
1986
Q2
(21

1985
£4

145.84
4

4
79.6( 79.4
4

162.24
1
113. 44

76.«*i 75.6
j
71.51 68.7

i

98.94
107.94
1
4

14O.4|
i

139.64
•
139.74
146.04
4
4
1
4
120.94121.1 121.3 121.4 121.61
4

U3

Q4

78.3

7a. i

78.2

73.9

73.6

74.0

65.6

64.2

66.9

70.1
69.9

65.6
69.7

60.0
62.1

59.2
65.2

r

66.ft|
68.51
1
4
82.21
1
82.74
*
91.44
79.04

83.2

83.8

85.6

86.0

83.9

84.3

86.5

87.1

93.8
80.1

94.2
80.0

97.3
91.4

96.7
82.4

84.9} 84.4

82.9

81.2

80.4

4
4

4

Explanatory Notes
Definition. This release contains estimates of output, capacity, and capacity utilization for the
nation's factories, mines, and electric and gas utilities. Output data are the Federal Reserve's
seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production, which express output as percentages of
1977 output. The capacity estimates are expressed as percentages of 1977 output as well.
Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. The capacity indexes are based on a variety of data, including capacity data in physical units compiled
by trade associations, private and government surveys of capacity growth and utilization rates,
and estimates of capital stock growth. The concept of practical capacity is applied; which is
defined as the^greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic
work pattern, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs
to operate machinery and equipment in place. When the capacity indexes for individual industries are aggregated—for example to total manufacturing—no explicit account is taken of possible general equilibrium constraints such as emerging industry bottlenecks. Because of the
large and heterogeneous database, changes in utilization rates may be more meaningful in the
analysis of business conditions than any particular level of these rates.
Grouping*. Estimates of capacity and industrial production for manufacturing industries are
aggregated to primary processing and advanced processing industries, to durable and nondurable
manufacturing industries, and to total manufacturing. The mining, manufacturing, and utilities
estimates aggregate to the total index. Primary processing includes textile mill products, paper
and products, industrial chemicals, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber
and products, primary metals, fabricated metal products, and stone, clay, and glass products.
Advanced processing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products such as drugs and toiletries, leather and products, furniture and fixtures,
machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, miscellaneous manufactures, and
government-owned-and-operated ordnance facilities. Industrial materials are items produced and
used as inputs by manufacturing plants, mines, and utilities. Industrial materials include many
of the items Included in the primary processing grouping of manufacturing, as well as some
of the output of the advanced processing industries, mines, and utilities—such as iron ore, crude
oil, semiconductors, and electricity sold to industry.




Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables above are
specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates
has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total
manufacturing, utilization rates as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime.
Revision*. The first estimates for a month are published about the 17th of the following month.
These estimates may revise in each of the next three months as new data become available.
After the fourth month no further revisions are undertaken until an annual or benchmark revision. The median of the revisions in the total manufacturing utilization rate between the first
and fourth estimate is 0.3 of a percentage point; that is, in about half of the cases, the absolute
value of the revision from the first to the fourth estimate is less than 0.3 of a percentage point.
Sources. The basic methodology used to estimate the series is discussed in Richard 0. Raddock, "Revised Federal Reserve Rates of Capacity Utilization," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Vol.
71 (October 1985), pp. 754-66. Revised data for 1984-85 as well as historical utilization rates
since 1967 (1948 in the case of manufacturing) are included in the statistical supplement to the
September 1986 capacity utilization release. Copies may be obtained from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, O.C. 20551
Rounding. Utilization rates are calculated from unrounded capacity and production indexes.
Aggregates are derived from unrounded detailed components.
Release schedule for 1987. Approximately 11 a.m. on January 20, February 17, March 16,
April 16, May 18, June 17, July 16, August 17, September 16, October 19, November 16, and
December 16.