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-••« Jas ^fe. FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.3 (402) For Immediate release CAPACITY UTILIZATION Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities, and Industrial Materials February 18, 1986 Capacity u t i l i z a t i o n in manufacturing, mining, and u t i l i t i e s edged up 0.1 percentage point in January to 80.8 percent. The operating rate in manufacturing also grew 0.1 percentage point in January while mining u t i l i zation rose 0*9 percentage point* Following gains in the previous two months9 the operating rate for u t i l i t i e s decreased 1.1 percentage point. U t i l i z a t i o n in total industry is s t i l l somewhat below i t s rate at the start of 1985, U t i l i z a t i o n in durable goods manufacturing rose Q92 percentage point in January. In this sector9 both the primary metals and motor vehicles and parts industries showed strong u t i l i z a t i o n rate increases. The operating rate in the automobile industry alone rose 2.8 percentage points. Utilization in nondurable manufacturing held steady in January; even so9 the operating rate in the petroleum products industry rose by the largest amount of all major industries, 4.5 percentage points. Capacity u t i l i z a t i o n in total industrial materials declined 0,1 percentage point in January to 79.6 percent. Energy materials, which had a 0.5 percentage point f a l l , was the major contributor to the overall decline in January. Durable materials u t i l i z a t i o n was unchanged while the nondurable materials operating rate rose Qel percentage point* Capacity Utilisation: Summary Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Series 1973 High 1975 Low 1978 -80 Hiqh 1982 Low 1967 -85 1985 1986 OCT | IIOV J_ DEC | JAN 88.6 72.1 86.9 .9.5 81.7 79.8 80.3 80.7 80.8 Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 87.7 87.4 88.8 69.9 67.9 71.8 8b.5 86.3 87.0 63.0 63.7 80.6 78.8 83.5 79.6 77.2 83.2 80.1 77.9 83.5 80.5 78.2 84.0 80.6 78.4 84.0 Mining Utilities 92.8 95.6 87.8 82.9 95.2 88.5 76.9 78.0 87.7 87.9 B0. 9 82.7 79.9 82.9 79.7 83.8 80.6 82.7 92.0 70*5 89*3 82*5 79.3 79.2 79.7 79.6 Total Industry Industrial KSaterials JANUARY CAPACITY UTILIZATION DATA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, PERCENT 110 TOTAL INDUSTRY TOTAL MATERIALS 90 70 50 110 MINING UTILITIES 90 1 / \ \/ MANUFACTURING ^ 70 50 110 MANUFACTURING ELECTRICAL MACHINERY 90 NONDURABLE 70 50 110 MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS 90 70 50 30 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 MANUFACTURING, MINING AND UTILITIES Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 | 1975 | 1978 | 1982 1 1967 | 1985 | Series High | Low 1 -80 1 Low 1 - 8 5 | JAM | .1985 1986 1 1 High 1 1 Avq. I 4 HAT 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 A0G ] S£P 1 OCT 1 MOV | DEC 1 J A H 1 1 1 72.1J 8b.91 Total Industry 69.5| 81.7J 80.6 8 0 . 7 | 80.8 80.5 80.5 79.8 81. 1| 80.7 80.3 80.2 88.61 1 Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Automobiles Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. Instruments Other durables 87.7| b9.9| 86.5] bd.O] 80.6| 80.7| 80.3 80.1 80.1 80.7 80-1 79.6 80.1 80.51 80.6 91.9] 86.0| 68.3| 71.1| 89. 1| 85.11 b5.1| b9.5( 1 63.7| 62.9| 45.8| 37.6) bO.8| 61.3) 6 2 . 91 66.91 47.01 36.6| 70.7| 77.81 69-1| 81.71 80.21 81.61 80.21 81-5 79.8 82.0 79.3 82.3 79.1 U2.9 79.6 B2.U 79.0 «3. 1 78.0 82.8 78.9 78.81 77.7| 80.21 79.4J 81.31 77.91 78.5J 78.3| 78.01 1 76.6| 83.4| 81.8| 79.31 79.81 73.5| 67.6| 82.9| 83.8| 82.6| 78.5 81.7 69.0 62.7 79.1 81.3 76.7 74-1 82.6 80.5 82.9 83.3 83-3 78.0 81.4 70.8 64.9 80.2 80- b 74-6 73.9 82.2 79-2 84.2 83.5 83.2 78.0 78.7 80. b 81.2 71.5 74.3 66. 1 b9.0 »2.7 80.2 80.5 80.9 75.2 7 5. « 71.9 /.I.? 8 3. b 86.3 82.2 82.0 85.0 86.2 83.4 *3.5 83. ^ 83.4 77.8 81.0 72.8 b7.2 tti-7 80.b 74.1 71.0 84.8 79.6 8b.6 81.6 43.6 77.2 80.4 75.5 72.0 81.0 81.2 72.0 70.7 81.9 74.0 87.0 81.7 83.5 77.9 79.9 75.7 72.9 80.0 80.9 73.0 71.9 83.5 75.8 87.6 82.0 83.2 83.0| 79* 41 I 78.21 80.5| 74.21 70.61 79.9| 81.2| 73.7| 73.0| 83.8| 79.4| 87.3| 81-81 83.71 87-«| 89.3| 101.9| 105.8J 95.6| 85.0| 89.01 85.7| 97.1| 1 77.0| 89.2| 87.7| 67.9| 86.JI 67.1| 8b. b| 67.01 97. 1 | 6b.61 100.31 62.11 9 1 . 11 64.71 87.4| 68.2] 8b. 01 63.71 89.91 52.71 93.3| 1 93.3] 87.1| 69.61 74.91 8 8 . 9 | 69.01 81.01 Mining 92.81 71.8| 77.61 58.91 67.71 69.21 83.7| 59.51 72.3| 1 87.8| UtIIWes Electric utilities 95.61 98.7J 82.91 83.01 Nondurable manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Other nonduraWes 88.81 85.8| 92.11 95.6| 88.61 99.61 97. 5] 86.4| i i 80.01 76.0| 78.41 85.8) 85.6| 80.31 83.lt 79.3 78.4 76.6 81.1 73-2 72.9 85-8 82.2 87.7 80.8 83.8 87.0| 85.1| 88.31 92.7| 82.9| 91.71 89.4J 92.4| 74.4| 76.5| 70.61 80.8| 67.61 69.7| 71.21 78.9| 83.51 82.4| 84.51 88.4 1 78.71 87.71 84.61 86.1| 82.81 79. 1 | 76.51 92.9| 78.41 81.41 88.4| 07.3| 83.0 80.1 81.5 89.2 78-5 85.4 85.9 87-6 83.4 80.2 84.2 91.2 78-2 85.3 86.3 87.7 83.3 80.2 84.7 92.4 78.0 86.7 86.0 86.8 83-7 80.2 ttb.b 91.2 78.9 86.8 87.0 87.3 83.7 79.9 86.7 9 1 . tt 79.3 84.7 87.0 87.3 83.2 78.6 8b. I 90.7 78.4 86.6 86.7 87.9 83.5 78.8 85-7 91.2 78.4 86.5 87.4 88.4 8 4 - 0 | 84.0 79.21 85.11 92.9| 78.31 8 7 . 3 | 91.8 87.«| 8 9 . 5 | 89.2 95.2| 76.91 87.71 82.91 82.2 82.7 81.2 tfO. 9 81.0 80.9 79.9 79.7| 88.5| 87.6| 70. 0| 78.21 87.9| 88.71 84.7| 83.5| 84.5 82.9 84.1 81.9 81.0 41.5 80.2 83.4 82.6 82.7 81.5 82.9 81.6 82.6 »0.6 * 83.8J •2.7 8 2 . 5 | 81.0 1 Table 2 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted CAPACITY Series Total Industry Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Automobiles Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. Instruments Other durables Nondurable manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Other nondurable* Mining Utilities Electric utilities 1984 Q4 1985 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 123.11123.0 124.2 124.0125.31 I 125.01126.0 126.6 127.6 120.31 I 107.01107.5 100.1 109.5 110.2} 137.0|137.1 137.9 130.6 139.21 I 127.3|127.7 127.9 128.5 129.01 115.6 115.0 115.71 80.2] 81.2 70.7 80.4 82.61 70.4ft 70.9 68.3 70.0 74.21 98.8(100.7 98.3 100.2 98.71 105.4(107.5 100.3 107.5 108.21 145.6|145.5 147.9 147.7 145.4J 179.2J174.1 169.2 1b5.6 160.61 106.71112.3 110.6 115.0 113.01 101.91115.9 112.5 114.6 109.21 127.9|131.8 135.4 140.0 142.4] 138.7|138.8 139-7 140.8 140.51 121.21120.5 122.7 123.9 124.91 I 8 123.5|123.6 124.9 126.4 127.2) 132.4 131.5] 128.91128.7 131.3 97.41 97.2 100.0 105.7 105.11 128.0|127.2 125.4 128.4 128.81 123.71126.0 126.3 127.9 128.11 85.41 84.3 87.2 87.5 07.61 146.41145.3 144.9 147.4 150.11 126.51126.3 127.6 128.2 131.41 I 1 108.31110.1 110.0 108.5 107.5| I I 111.11114.2 113.6 111.4 113.31 1 119.3 118.3 120.21 1984 1985 Q4 Q1 160.31161.7 140.61 141.4 111.91111.1 106.0|104.0 123.01123.0 132.9|133.1 189.3|191.0 221-7|225.5 130.71132.3 135.31137.3 162.51162.6 164.3|166.O 145.11 146.2 142.3 110.8 104.3 122.9 133.2 194.3 228.5 133.9 139.2 162.8 167.9 147.4 143.2 110.4 103.0 122.9 133.3 196.9 231.5 135.4 141.0 162.9 169-0 140.5 148.11149.2 161.21162-6 122.21122.4 137.6(138.4 159.7|160.6 103.81103.0 163.9|165.8 143.1|144.5 150.2 164.0 122.7 139.1 161.5 102.3 167.9 145.8 151.2 165.3 122.9 139-9 162.4 101.6 170.0 147.0 I 133.11133.4 I 133.0|133.7 141.7|142.8 1904 Q4 Q3 I 151.71152.0 154.0 155.1 I 155.21156.5 157.7 158.9 I 132.4 131.4|131.6 132.0 169.61171.4 173-2 174.9 i 163.1 164.5 Note. Data for output are percentages of 1077 output as shown in the Federal Reserve's s ally adjusted Indexes of Industrial production. Capacity is also expressed as a percentage of Q2 133.6 133.9 134.5 135.4 144.2 145.5 15b.2| I 160.2] I 132.01 176.71 1 165.81 144.1] 110.0] 10J.31 122.8| 133.4| 199.4| 234.51 137.01 142.9| 163.1] 171.7| 149.7| 152.3J 166.7] 12i.2| 14O.6| 163.31 100.9| 172.11 148.3] 1 134.11 I 136.3J 146.9] I 01.21 1 81.0| 1 81.5| 80.tf| 79.4] 80.31 71.7| 66.4| 80.31 79.3] 76.9| 80.8] 81.7| 75.3] 78.71 84.4| 83.5) I 83.41 80-0) 79.7| 93-0] 77.5] 82.3] 89.3] 80.4] I 81.31 I 03.51 83.01 UTILIZATION 1985 Ui Q2 Q3 Q4 01-0 80.7 80.5 80.2 80.5 80.3 80.3 8 0 . 1 81.6 80.0 81.9 79-6 02.7 02.9 79-2 70.0 79.0 70.0 73.1 67.6 01.9 80.8 75.9 77-2 8 4.9 84.4 bi.1 83.6 82.4 78.5 81.2 71.0 65.5 80.0 81.3 76.1 74.1 82.7 80.8 83.2 83.2 03.3 70.1 00.9 72.9 67.4 01.5 80.7 75.0 71.5 84.9 81.2 85.9 82.9 03.4 77.8 80.3 75.1 71.8 80.3 81-1 72.9 71.9 83.1 76.4 87-3 81.8 03.4 82.9 79.2 79.4 91.9 78.5 81.0 07.6 07.4 83.1 00.1 82.1 90.2 78.2 85.2 06.3 87.6 03.6 00.1 06.0 91.0 70.7 06.0 06.7 07.2 03.6 70.9 85.4 91.6 78.4 86.0 87.2 00.6 02.6 82.3 01.0 00.2 05.5 84.1 04.4 02.0 02.3 01.3 03.1 01.0 1977 actual output. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS Table 3 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 | 1975 | 1978 1 1982 1 1967 1 1985 | Series Low | - 8 5 1 JAN 1 High | Low 1 - 8 0 High • Avg. 1 1 1 1 1 J J Materials Industrial 92.0| 70.51 8 9 . 1 1 68.41 82-51 8 1 . 7 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 J J 79.41 7 9 . 9 | 8 9 . 8| Durable goods materials 64.4) 91.8| 60.9| 1 1 1 1 1 45-71 78-4| 67.1| 93. 99-21 68. 1 | Metal materials 1 1 1 1 i 98.9| Raw steel 106.01 66.41 36.11 81.11 65.9| Aluminum 95.7| 73.01i 9 7 . 41 5 8 . 8 |• 88.0| 1 78.81I j 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 i Nondurable goods materials 88. 9 1 . 1 | 66.7| 70.6| 83-2| 80.9| 11 1 1 1 1 I Textile, paper, and chemical materials 92.81 64.81 89.41 68.61 83.6) 81.71 1 1 1 J 1 1 98.4| 70.6| 97.3| Pulp and paper materials 79.91 91-3| 93.7| 64.4| 87. 9| 92.5| Chemical materials 63.31 80.81 8 0 . 1 | 1 i i 1 1 1 1 94.61 Energy materials 1 86.9| | 9 4 . 01 1 82.21 1 89.7J 1 1985 HAY J JUM i 1986 JUL 1 A0G 1 SEP I OCT 1 80¥ 1 DEC 1 JAS 79.5 79.9 79.5 79.3 79-2 76. 5 75.0 76. o 7^.4 75.2 75.7 66.2 69. 0 66.4 69.4 67-3 69. 4 70.5 67.9 72.9 67. 4 72. 0 67.2 71.0 67-4 70.5 67.6 70.3 67.4 68.5 66.4 66.0 80.8 81. 0 81.7 d2- 1 82.9 81.9 81.3 80.9 81. 4 82.7 d2.8 83.7 82.4 81.6 88.8 79.5 90.5 79. 2 91.7 80.1 90.1 79. 6 90-7 81.2 88.8 80. 5 90.2 78.9 87-5 87. 3 85.8 85.1 85.6 86.2 85.1 80.1 80-1 76.6 1 79.71 1 J 76.01 1 71.011 61-81 65.7| 1 76. 0 71. 5 1 81.81 8 1 . 9 I 82.51 82.5 1 92. 51 79.81 i 1 86.21 8 5 . 7 1 I 86.6| 1 79. 6 Table 4 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted OUTPUT 1 1984 1985 1 ii2 Q4 Q1 ii3 Q4 | 1 1 114.51115.4 114.5 114.2 114.61 1 1 Series Durable goods materials Metal materials Raw steel Aluminum Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper and chemical Pulp and paper materials Chemical materials Energy materials terials CAPACITY I 1984 1985 I Q2 Q4 Q1 £24 I 1 I 140.7| 141.6 142.5 143.4 144.31 1 1 1 * 123.71123.6 121.4 120.7 121.41 154.4J155.9 157.4 158.9 1 6 0 . 5 | i 1 1 1 80.41 8 0 . 6 80.2 79.4 82.41 117.81117.3 117.3 117.3 117.3| 1 I 1 i 64.11 7 0 . 4 71.2 70.7 68.31 105.8J104.9 104.9 104.8 1U4.8| 9 5 . 9 | 9 0 . 9 86.4 83.5 78.81 119.01118.8 118.6 118.3 11a. 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 110.9J110.9 111.2 113.7 113.21 136.81137.3 137.8 138.2 1J8.7| 1 1 1 J 110.7J 111.6 111.0 114.1 113.21 136.21136.7 137.0 137.4 U7.8J • 126.21126.3 121.8 123.8 123.51 110.9|113.2 112.6 114.6 114.11 1 i 1 101.3(105.0 105.2 103.2 103.81 • 135.31 136.1 136.2 136.3 136.5J 141.1| 141.5 142.0 142.6 143.11 I 1 Definition. This release contains estimates of output, capacity, and capacity utilization for the nation's factories, mines, and electric and gas utilities. Output data are the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of Industrial production, which express output as percentages of 1977 output. The capacity estimates are expressed as percentages of 1977 output as well. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. The capacity indexes are based on a variety of data, including capacity data in physical units compiled by trade associations, private and government surveys of capacity growth and utilization rates, and estimates of capital stock growth. The concept of practical capacity is applied, which is defined as the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work pattern, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate machinery and equipment in place. When the capacity indexes for individual Industries are aggregated—for example to total manufacturing—no explicit account is taken of possible general equilibrium constraints such as emerging industry bottlenecks. Because of the large and heterogeneous database, changes in utilization rates may be more meaningful In the analysis of business conditions than any particular level of these rates. i of capacity and Industrial production for manufacturing Industries are aggregated top ng and advanced processing industries, to durable and nondurable manufacturing industries, and to total manufacturing. The mining, manufacturing, and utilities estimates aggregate to the total index. Industrial materials are items produced and used as inputs by manufacturing plants, mines, and utilities. Industrial materials include many of the items included in the primary processing grouping of manufacturing, as well as some of the output of the advanced processing industries, mines, and utilities—such as iron ore, crude oil, semiconductors, and electricity sold to industry. 1 119.7|120.0 120.3 120.6 120.9J 1 1 UTILIZATION 1985 1984 (24 til Q2 Q3 Q4 80.4 79.6 79.4 77.1 76.0 75. 6 66.4 67.7 70. 3 I 81.4| 61.5 1 • 8 0 . 1 | 79.3 1 68.7 1 60.61 67. 1 80.6| 76.5 67.9 72.9 67.4 70.6 65. 2 66. 7 1 1 61.01 80.7 1 81. J | 81.7 80.7 82.2 81.6 81.0 83. 0 82. 2 93.JI 92.8 78.61 80.0 89.4 79.3 90.6 80.4 90 5 79. 7 87.5 85.5 85. 8 1 84. o| U7.5 I Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total manufacturing, utilization rates as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime. Revisions. The first estimates for a month are published about the 17th of the following month. These estimates may revise in each of the next three months as new data become available. After the fourth month no further revisions are undertaken until an annual or benchmark revision. The median of the revisions in the total manufacturing utilization rate between the first and fourth estimate is 0.3 of a percentage point; that is, in about half of the cases, the absolute value of the revision from the first to the fourth estimate is less than 0.3 of a percentage point. Sources. The basic methodology used to estimate the series is discussed In "Revised Federal Reserve Rates of Capacity Utilization", Federal Reserve Bulletin, October 1985. Revised data from 1948-84 are included in the statistical supplement to the July 1985 capacity utilization release, which may be obtained from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551. Rounding. Utilization rates are calculated from unrounded capacity and production Indexes. Aggregates are derived from unrounded detailed components. - . „ . , , . — — ™ . J for 1989. Approximately 11 aim. on January 17, February 18, March 17, April 16, May 16, June 16, July 18, August 16, September 17, October 17, November 17, and December 17.
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