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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
G.17 (419)

For release at 10:30 a.m. (EST)
November 30, 1999

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: A Revision
The Federal Reserve has revised the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of
capacity and utilization for the period 1992 to date. For the third quarter of 1999, the revision places the
production index at 137.5 percent of output in 1992, compared with 135.2 percent reported previously and the
capacity index at 170.7 percent of output in 1992, compared with 167.9 percent reported previously. As a result,
the rate of industrial capacity utilization—the ratio of production to capacity—was revised up 0.1 percentage point,
to 80.6 percent for the third quarter of 1999 (chart 1 and table 1).
Total industrial output increased 4.5 percent per year, on average, over 1995–99. The output of
computers, semiconductors and communications equipment accounted for more than half the growth. The rate of
increase in the output and capacity of these industries is now estimated to have been more rapid than previously
shown, especially in 1998 (table 4). The key factor in the upward revision of the production index for
semiconductors was the incorporation of 1998 price data for memory chips and computational microprocessors,
which indicated that the prices of these chips had declined faster than previously estimated. The production index
for computers was revised up in 1998 and 1999 because of the incorporation of new source data. Outside of
computers and semiconductors, revisions to the individual output indexes were largely offsetting from 1995 on.
Excluding computers and semiconductors, industrial production increased about 2 percent annually over the period,
with no change in 1998 and a gain of 0.9 percent in 1999 (table 3).
The updated measures reflect both the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source
data typical of annual revisions and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series. The new
source data are for recent years, primarily from 1997 on, and the modified methods affect data from 1992 onward.
In addition, the supplementary series on the gross value of products leaving the industrial sector are now expressed
in 1996 dollars; these series begin in 1977.
The updated IP measures include annual data from selected editions of the Bureau of the Census’s
1998 Current Industrial Reports and available preliminary data for about 15 percent of manufacturing from the
1997 Census of Manufactures. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey on metallic and nonmetallic minerals
(except fuels) for 1997 and 1998 have also been introduced. The updating includes revisions to the monthly
indicator for each industry (either physical product data, production worker hours, or electric power usage) and
revised seasonal factors.
The revision introduces improved methods for measuring the production of computer and office
equipment and of motor vehicles. The new monthly production measure for computers is derived from detailed
information on the major products produced by the industry. The new measures of motor vehicle production
incorporate price weights for the different models of light vehicles; previously, all models of autos and light trucks
were weighted equally in compiling an aggregate figure that was eventually benchmarked to comprehensive
Census data.
Capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates now incorporate preliminary data from the 1998
Survey of Plant Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along with other new data on
capacity, expressed in physical units, from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other
organizations.

The Census Bureau’s survey is the source of utilization rates for most manufacturing industries. The
preliminary results of the 1998 Survey of Plant Capacity, which provided industry utilization rates for the fourth
quarter of the year, suggested that trends in manufacturing utilization rates were generally in line with those
previously estimated by the Federal Reserve. However, dividing the upwardly-revised industrial production
indexes for the computer, semiconductor, and communications equipment industries by the Census utilization rates
yielded a noticeable upward revision of capacity in those industries.
The capacity utilization rate for mining was revised very little; the rate of utilization in electric
utilities was revised down.

Production by Market Groups
As previously shown, the rate of increase of industrial production accelerated in 1996 and 1997 and
then slowed between 1998:Q1 and 1999:Q1 (table 1). The slowing reflects the effects of the economic turmoil in
Asia on a number of industries. As Asian economies began to recover in 1999, the economic outlook for some of
the weakened U.S. industries brightened as well.
Among major market groups, the revised production index for consumer durable goods has advanced
strongly in recent years as the low rate of unemployment and rising income have bolstered the demand for
consumer goods. The index, which had risen at an annual rate of 5 percent or more during 1997 and 1998, rose at
an annual rate of 7.5 percent over the first three quarters of 1999. During 1999, the output of automotive products,
especially light trucks, has continued upward from a high level, with a temporary interruption in September caused
by Hurricane Floyd, while the volatile series for household appliances has fluctuated at a high level and the series
for carpeting and furniture has, on balance, moved upward. After a pause in mid-1997, the production of home
electronics, including computers, surged upward at an annual rate of about 45 percent. The nondurable consumer
goods group, which endured a broadly based decline in the second half of 1998, has shown signs of stabilizing in
1999 as an increase in the output of consumer energy products has offset ongoing weakness elsewhere. Producers
of cigarettes, clothing, and paper products have suffered setbacks in the past two years.
Although boosted by gains in the output of business computers and office equipment that averaged
more than 50 percent per year from 1996 on, the rise in the production of business equipment slowed in 1999
because of declines in the output of industrial equipment, farm equipment, and transit equipment, particularly
railroad equipment and commercial aircraft and ships. The production of defense and space equipment resumed its
decline in 1999 after an uptick in 1998.
After having risen more slowly in 1997, the output of construction supplies accelerated in 1998 and
early 1999, when it was lifted to an elevated level by strong demand for housing and by unusually mild weather,
and then flattened in mid-1999. Before recovering in 1999, the output of industrial materials slowed in 1998
reflecting increased import competition and decreased foreign demand as a result of the Asian economic crisis. As
a result, the output of several internationally traded commodities, such as steel, paper, and chemicals, was reduced
in 1998. Nevertheless, the output of durable materials, which includes the fast-growing series for computer parts
and semiconductors, recorded an advance of 7.3 percent in 1998 and 9.4 percent in 1999. With a solid rebound in
the production of chemical materials, the output of nondurable goods materials, after declining in 1998, increased
3.4 percent in 1999. The output of energy materials fell about a percent in 1998 and has been about flat so far this
year.

Capacity and Capacity Utilization
The annual rate of capacity growth in manufacturing, which averaged 6.1 percent per year in 1996 and
1997, accelerated to 7.0 percent in 1998 and then eased to 4.7 percent in 1999 (table 5). The most rapid expansion
of capacity and the upward revisions were again concentrated in durable manufacturing, especially in the computer,
communications equipment, and semiconductor industries. The capacity increase in these industries averaged
2

more than 40 percent per year over the 1995–99 period. The rest of manufacturing increased capacity
approximately 2-2/3 percent in 1995 and 1996, 3 percent in 1997 and 1998, and 1-1/3 percent in 1999. The
capacity expansion in mining and utilities was slower. In particular, the capacity in oil and gas extraction and
metal mining declined in 1999, while that for utilities increased 1.4 percent. The North American Electric
Reliability Council continues to project increases in capacity that fall short of probable increases in demand.
The rate of manufacturing capacity utilization—the ratio of output to capacity—was revised up
0.1 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 1998 and 0.2 percentage point in the third quarter of 1999 (table 6).
Utilization in manufacturing in the third quarter of this year was 79.6 percent, a level 1.5 percentage points less
than the 1967–98 average. The rates in both primary- and advanced-processing industries fell a few percentage
points from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the third quarter of 1999.
Utilization in mining fell substantially in 1998 and 1999 because of declines in oil and gas well
drilling and in metal mining. In the third quarter, utilization rates in mining and gas utilities were at
below-average levels; in contrast, the rate of utilization in electric utilities was 95.8 percent, still a high level.

Aspects of the Annual Revision
The revision incorporates the updating of the comprehensive annual data and of the revised monthly
source data used in the estimation of production, capacity, and utilization. More up-to-date results were obtained
from the 1997 Census of Manufactures, the 1998 Survey of Plant Capacity, other annual industry reports, recent
information on prices, and revised monthly source data on physical products and on labor and electricity inputs.1
Along with the individual production series and seasonal factors, the annual value-added weights used in
aggregating the indexes to market and industry groups were also updated.

Changes to Individual Production Series
This revision includes a new method for estimating computer production. The index of the computer
and office equipment industry (SIC 357) continues to be based on the aggregate of three individual components:
office and computing equipment, business (part of the market group for business equipment); office and computing
equipment, home (part of consumer durables), and computer parts (part of equipment parts within durable goods
materials. But, whereas monthly input measures were previously used, now quarterly data from Dataquest
covering unit sales and unit values for about 1,100 distinct computer models are used to estimate the real output of
the computer industry. These new data show a faster rise in output in recent years and indicate that a larger share
of output has been sold for home use than did the indexes previously published.
The method for deriving the output of autos and light trucks (SIC 3711pt, 3pt)was improved in order
to capture shifts in the product mix and relative values on a more timely basis. Before this revision, the production
indexes for autos and for light trucks were calculated from simple counts of units assembled, benchmarked to
comprehensive output measures derived from data contained in the Census of Manufactures and the Annual Survey
of Manufactures. In this procedure, variations in relative values, resulting at least in part from shifts in the product
mix, were often captured only during the annual revision process.
For this revision, the IP indexes for autos and light trucks starting in 1992 are chained Fisher quantity
indexes that are calculated using data for each vehicle model that include the number of units assembled monthly
and the list price at the beginning of the new model year. Compared with the previous index, the output index for
autos is now shown to have increased more slowly, and the production of light trucks, to have risen more rapidly
over the entire 1992–99 period. These revisions reflect the changes in the product mix that have occurred in the
——————————
1. Information about the sources of monthly data used to calculate the indexes can be found in Table 1 “Industry

structure of industrial production: classification, value-added weights, and description of series” on the Board’s
Web site (http://www.federalreserve.gov/g17/About.htm).
3

1990s. For example, during this time, the production and demand for light trucks, particularly expensive sport
utility vehicles, have skyrocketed and have resulted in a pronounced shift in the product mix and in the relative
prices of light vehicles. These revisions to the indexes for autos and light trucks were largely offsetting.
The monthly indicators for three other series have changed in this revision. The series on bolts and
fasteners (SIC 345) and metalworking machinery (SIC 354) now use production-worker hours in the respective
industry as a monthly indicator; previously the series had been based on electric power consumption. The monthly
indicator for railroad equipment (SIC 374) now is also production-worker hours; previously, it had been based on
quarterly physical product data that are no longer collected.

Weights
The IP index is an annually weighted Fisher index.2 The annual value-added weights for the
aggregation of IP and capacity utilization, which are derived from annual estimates of industry value added, were
updated and extrapolated. Some available reports from the 1997 Census of Manufactures as well as revenue and
expense data reported by the Department of Energy and the American Gas Association provided industry
value-added data for selected manufacturing industries and utilities through 1997. The latest value-added data for
mining comes from selected reports from the Census of Mineral Industries for 1997; otherwise, the 1992 Census
was the source. The weights are expressed as unit value added. Generally, the unit value-added measures track
broad changes in corresponding producer prices. The weights required for aggregating IP in the most recent period
are (1) estimated from available data on producer prices through the most recent year and (2) extrapolated for the
following year, given the persistence of many relative price trends.

Revised Monthly Data
The monthly physical product data that are used to measure the monthly movements of many IP
indexes have been updated to capture data that became available after the closing of the regular four-month
reporting window. Monthly data on production-worker hours or sales of electric power in kilowatt-hours to
industry groups, along with estimates of trends in output per worker-hour or kilowatt-hour, are used to indicate the
monthly change in output for many individual IP indexes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ benchmark of the
employment data for March 1998 was incorporated in this revision. Revised data on the sales of electricity to
industries since 1992 were incorporated as well. Because of offsetting revisions among the components series, the
annual revisions of the growth of total electric power use were generally small, except for 1998 (table 8). Seasonal
factors for the electric power series have been reestimated using data through April 1999.3

Measurement of Capacity
The revisions to capacity and utilization incorporated the revised production indexes, the preliminary
results of the 1998 Survey of Plant Capacity conducted by the Bureau of the Census, updated measures of capacity
in physical units for selected industries, and revised estimates of industry capital input. Improvements in the
capital input measures and in the models used to estimate manufacturing capacity were introduced. The new 1992
benchmark capital flows table from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is an important determinant of the
estimates of the asset composition of each industry’s capital stock, was used to refine the estimates of capital input.
——————————
2. The aggregation procedures are described in Carol Corrado, Charles Gilbert, and Richard Raddock,

“Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Historical Revision and Recent Developments,” Federal Reserve
Bulletin, vol.83 (February 1997), pp.67–92.
3. Seasonal factors for the worker hours were based on data through October; factors for the monthly physical
product series were based on data through June or later in the summer.
4

The improved specification of the models better captures advances in technology that are “embodied” in capital
goods. These refinements in the Federal Reserve’s method of calculating capacity and capacity utilization will be
described in more detail in a forthcoming article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin.

NOTICE: Data Availability and Publication Changes
Files containing the revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the
Board’s web site, at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17, and on diskettes from Publications Services
(telephone 202-452-3245). The revised data will also be available through the STAT-USA web site of the
Department of Commerce (www.stat-usa.gov). Further information on these revisions is available from the
Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197).
A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is
available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics,
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551.
An expanded version of this release will be published in a forthcoming article in the Federal
Reserve Bulletin.

5

1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization
180

Ratio scale, 1992 output = 100
= Revised
= Previous

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100
Capacity

90

90

80

80
Production

70

70

60

60

50

1970

1975

1980

1985

1995

2000

Percent of Capacity

90

85

1990

Utilization

90

85

80

75

50

80

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

6

75

Table 1
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: 1987–19991
TOTAL INDUSTRY
Seasonally adjusted
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual2

Industrial
Production,
Percent
Change
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

–.6
.1
.6
–.5
–.5
.0
.4
.2
.6
–.3
.5
.2
.2

1.2
.3
–.8
.5
–.8
.6
.4
.2
–.1
1.2
.9
–.1
.3

.4
.0
.9
.5
–.9
.8
.2
.9
.2
–.2
.4
.3
.5

.4
.6
.2
–.6
.3
.8
.4
.6
–.1
1.2
.6
.4
.2

.4
.1
–.6
.4
.8
.2
–.5
.8
.4
.9
.4
.6
.5

.9
.1
–.2
.0
1.2
–.1
.3
.6
.5
.7
.6
–.7
.3

.6
.7
–1.0
.0
.1
.7
.1
.3
–.4
.1
.5
–.1
.5

.1
.5
.4
.2
.1
–.3
–.2
.5
1.2
.7
.6
1.8
.2

–.1
–.4
–.2
.1
1.0
.5
1.1
.2
.4
.5
.6
.0
.0

1.4
.3
–.5
–.6
–.1
.5
.5
.6
–.1
–.1
.6
.4
.6

.3
.8
.4
–1.3
–.1
.5
.4
.6
.3
.7
.4
–.2

.6
.5
.5
–.6
–.6
.0
.7
.9
.0
.3
.3
.0

4.2
3.2
3.8
2.0
–8.3
.9
3.7
5.1
5.7
2.3
6.5
2.4
2.0

6.7
3.1
.5
.6
1.5
6.5
1.8
8.1
1.6
9.1
6.7
3.0
4.7

5.6
3.9
–4.4
1.0
6.2
2.8
1.4
5.9
3.8
5.8
6.9
2.9
4.3

7.1
3.6
–.1
–5.8
1.1
4.5
6.6
6.6
3.0
4.3
6.9
3.3

4.6
4.5
1.8
–.2
–2.0
3.1
3.4
5.5
4.9
4.4
6.4
4.2

Industrial
Production
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

90.2
95.9
99.8
98.6
96.7
97.6
102.1
105.9
113.3
115.6
123.0
130.9
134.1

91.2
96.2
99.0
99.1
95.9
98.1
102.6
106.1
113.2
116.9
124.0
130.7
134.5

91.6
96.3
100.0
99.6
95.0
98.9
102.8
107.0
113.4
116.6
124.5
131.1
135.1

92.0
96.8
100.2
99.0
95.4
99.7
103.2
107.6
113.3
118.0
125.2
131.7
135.5

92.4
96.9
99.6
99.4
96.1
99.9
102.7
108.5
113.8
119.0
125.8
132.4
136.2

93.2
97.0
99.4
99.3
97.2
99.7
103.0
109.2
114.3
119.8
126.6
131.5
136.6

93.7
97.6
98.4
99.3
97.3
100.5
103.1
109.5
113.8
119.9
127.2
131.3
137.4

93.8
98.1
98.8
99.5
97.4
100.2
102.9
110.1
115.1
120.7
128.0
133.6
137.6

93.7
97.8
98.6
99.6
98.4
100.7
104.0
110.3
115.6
121.2
128.8
133.5
137.6

95.0
98.0
98.2
99.1
98.3
101.2
104.5
110.9
115.5
121.2
129.6
134.1
138.5

95.3
98.8
98.6
97.7
98.1
101.8
104.9
111.6
115.8
122.1
130.2
133.8

95.9
99.3
99.0
97.2
97.5
101.7
105.6
112.7
115.9
122.4
130.6
133.8

91.0
96.1
99.6
99.1
95.9
98.2
102.5
106.3
113.3
116.4
123.8
130.9
134.6

92.5
96.9
99.7
99.2
96.2
99.8
103.0
108.4
113.8
118.9
125.9
131.9
136.1

93.8
97.8
98.6
99.5
97.7
100.5
103.3
110.0
114.9
120.6
128.0
132.8
137.5

95.4
98.7
98.6
98.0
98.0
101.6
105.0
111.8
115.7
121.9
130.1
133.9

93.2
97.4
99.1
98.9
97.0
100.0
103.4
109.1
114.4
119.4
127.1
132.4

Capacity
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

114.0
115.3
116.8
119.2
121.4
123.4
126.0
129.0
134.3
141.2
148.8
157.1
166.7

114.1
115.5
117.0
119.3
121.6
123.6
126.2
129.3
134.8
141.9
149.5
158.0
167.4

114.2
115.6
117.2
119.5
121.7
123.9
126.4
129.7
135.4
142.5
150.1
158.9
168.0

114.3
115.7
117.4
119.7
121.9
124.1
126.6
130.1
135.9
143.2
150.7
159.8
168.6

114.4
115.8
117.6
119.9
122.1
124.4
126.8
130.5
136.5
143.9
151.4
160.7
169.2

114.5
115.9
117.8
120.1
122.2
124.6
127.0
130.9
137.1
144.6
152.1
161.6
169.8

114.6
116.0
118.0
120.2
122.4
124.8
127.3
131.4
137.7
145.2
152.7
162.4
170.2

114.7
116.2
118.2
120.4
122.6
125.0
127.5
131.8
138.2
145.8
153.4
163.2
170.7

114.9
116.3
118.4
120.6
122.7
125.2
127.7
132.3
138.8
146.4
154.1
163.9
171.2

115.0
116.4
118.6
120.8
122.9
125.4
128.0
132.8
139.4
147.0
154.8
164.6
171.7

115.1
116.5
118.8
121.0
123.0
125.6
128.3
133.3
140.0
147.6
155.5
165.3

115.2
116.7
119.0
121.2
123.2
125.8
128.6
133.8
140.6
148.2
156.3
166.0

114.1
115.5
117.0
119.3
121.6
123.6
126.2
129.3
134.8
141.9
149.5
158.0
167.3

114.4
115.8
117.6
119.9
122.1
124.4
126.8
130.5
136.5
143.9
151.4
160.7
169.2

114.7
116.2
118.2
120.4
122.6
125.0
127.5
131.8
138.2
145.8
153.4
163.2
170.7

115.1
116.5
118.8
121.0
123.0
125.6
128.3
133.3
140.0
147.6
155.6
165.3

114.6
116.0
117.9
120.2
122.3
124.7
127.2
131.2
137.4
144.8
152.5
161.8

79.1
83.2
85.4
82.7
79.6
79.1
81.0
82.1
84.4
81.8
82.6
83.3
80.4

80.0
83.4
84.6
83.0
78.9
79.4
81.3
82.0
83.9
82.4
83.0
82.7
80.4

80.2
83.3
85.3
83.3
78.1
79.8
81.3
82.5
83.8
81.8
83.0
82.5
80.5

80.5
83.7
85.3
82.7
78.2
80.3
81.5
82.7
83.3
82.4
83.1
82.4
80.4

80.7
83.7
84.7
82.9
78.7
80.3
81.0
83.1
83.3
82.7
83.1
82.4
80.5

81.4
83.6
84.4
82.7
79.6
80.0
81.1
83.4
83.3
82.9
83.2
81.3
80.5

81.8
84.1
83.4
82.6
79.5
80.5
81.0
83.4
82.7
82.6
83.3
80.8
80.7

81.8
84.5
83.6
82.6
79.5
80.1
80.7
83.5
83.3
82.8
83.4
81.9
80.6

81.6
84.1
83.3
82.6
80.2
80.4
81.4
83.4
83.3
82.8
83.6
81.5
80.4

82.6
84.2
82.8
82.0
80.0
80.7
81.6
83.6
82.9
82.4
83.7
81.5
80.7

82.8
84.8
83.0
80.8
79.8
81.0
81.7
83.8
82.7
82.7
83.7
80.9

83.2
85.1
83.2
80.2
79.2
80.8
82.1
84.2
82.4
82.6
83.5
80.6

79.8
83.3
85.1
83.0
78.9
79.4
81.2
82.2
84.0
82.0
82.9
82.8
80.4

80.8
83.7
84.8
82.8
78.8
80.2
81.2
83.1
83.3
82.6
83.1
82.1
80.5

81.7
84.2
83.4
82.6
79.7
80.3
81.0
83.4
83.1
82.7
83.4
81.4
80.6

82.9
84.7
83.0
81.0
79.6
80.8
81.8
83.9
82.7
82.6
83.7
81.0

81.3
84.0
84.1
82.3
79.3
80.2
81.3
83.1
83.3
82.5
83.3
81.8

Year

Utilization
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1. Estimates from August 1999 through October 1999 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.

7

Table 2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: 1987–19991
MANUFACTURING
Seasonally adjusted
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual2

–.8
–.2
.9
–.2
–.9
.2
.7
.0
.7
–.3
.4
.4
.1

1.6
.4
–1.2
.9
–.7
.8
.2
.2
–.3
1.1
1.0
–.1
.5

.2
–.1
.8
.3
–1.1
.9
.3
1.1
.3
–.4
.5
.2
.3

.5
1.0
.1
–.8
.3
.7
.5
.8
–.2
1.4
.5
.6
.3

.3
–.1
–.7
.4
.7
.4
–.4
1.0
.3
.9
.5
.5
.6

1.0
.0
.0
–.1
1.4
.0
.1
.4
.6
.8
.8
–.8
.3

.7
.7
–1.1
.0
.2
.7
.1
.5
–.6
.4
.4
–.1
.4

–.2
.3
.3
.3
.2
–.2
–.4
.7
1.1
.7
.8
2.0
.3

.1
.2
–.3
–.1
1.1
.4
1.3
.3
.8
.5
.6
–.1
.1

1.3
.2
–.6
–.6
–.1
.5
.4
.7
–.1
–.1
.6
.7
.6

.5
.9
.4
–1.3
–.2
.6
.5
.8
.1
.8
.6
.0

.6
.6
.1
–.6
–.5
–.2
.8
.9
.0
.4
.4
.1

5.0
2.3
4.3
2.9
–9.7
2.3
4.2
5.2
6.1
1.6
7.1
3.3
2.5

7.0
4.1
–.7
–.1
1.2
7.3
2.4
10.0
1.4
9.9
7.4
2.6
4.9

5.5
3.7
–4.5
.8
7.8
3.5
.8
6.7
3.3
7.7
7.8
3.4
4.2

7.6
5.2
–1.4
–6.3
1.7
3.9
7.1
8.0
3.6
4.6
7.4
5.6

5.3
4.7
1.9
–.5
–2.4
4.0
3.7
6.1
5.3
4.7
7.3
4.9

Industrial
Production
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

89.6
95.4
100.3
98.1
95.8
97.2
102.4
106.1
114.9
117.0
125.3
134.5
138.6

91.0
95.8
99.1
99.0
95.1
98.0
102.6
106.3
114.6
118.3
126.5
134.3
139.3

91.2
95.7
99.9
99.3
94.1
98.8
102.9
107.5
115.0
117.8
127.1
134.5
139.7

91.6
96.7
100.0
98.6
94.4
99.5
103.5
108.4
114.8
119.4
127.8
135.3
140.2

91.9
96.6
99.4
99.0
95.0
99.9
103.1
109.4
115.1
120.5
128.4
135.9
141.0

92.8
96.6
99.4
98.9
96.3
99.9
103.2
109.8
115.7
121.5
129.5
134.8
141.4

93.4
97.3
98.3
98.8
96.6
100.6
103.3
110.4
115.0
122.0
130.1
134.7
142.0

93.3
97.5
98.7
99.1
96.8
100.4
102.9
111.1
116.3
122.8
131.1
137.4
142.4

93.4
97.7
98.4
99.0
97.8
100.8
104.2
111.5
117.2
123.5
131.8
137.3
142.6

94.6
97.9
97.8
98.4
97.8
101.3
104.7
112.2
117.1
123.4
132.7
138.3
143.4

95.1
98.9
98.2
97.2
97.6
101.9
105.1
113.1
117.2
124.3
133.5
138.3

95.6
99.4
98.3
96.6
97.1
101.7
106.0
114.1
117.3
124.8
134.0
138.4

90.6
95.6
99.8
98.8
95.0
98.0
102.7
106.6
114.8
117.7
126.3
134.5
139.2

92.1
96.6
99.6
98.8
95.2
99.8
103.3
109.2
115.2
120.5
128.6
135.3
140.9

93.4
97.5
98.5
99.0
97.0
100.6
103.5
111.0
116.2
122.8
131.0
136.5
142.3

95.1
98.7
98.1
97.4
97.5
101.6
105.3
113.1
117.2
124.1
133.4
138.3

92.8
97.1
99.0
98.5
96.2
100.0
103.7
110.0
115.8
121.3
130.1
136.4

Capacity
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

113.2
115.2
117.0
119.9
122.4
124.6
127.5
130.7
136.7
144.6
153.4
163.0
174.1

113.4
115.3
117.3
120.1
122.6
124.8
127.7
131.1
137.3
145.4
154.1
164.0
174.8

113.6
115.4
117.5
120.3
122.8
125.1
127.9
131.6
138.0
146.1
154.9
165.0
175.5

113.8
115.6
117.8
120.5
123.0
125.4
128.2
132.0
138.6
146.9
155.6
166.1
176.2

113.9
115.7
118.0
120.7
123.1
125.6
128.4
132.5
139.3
147.7
156.4
167.1
176.9

114.1
115.8
118.3
120.9
123.3
125.9
128.6
133.0
140.0
148.5
157.2
168.2
177.6

114.2
116.0
118.5
121.1
123.5
126.1
128.9
133.4
140.6
149.2
157.9
169.1
178.2

114.4
116.1
118.7
121.3
123.7
126.4
129.1
133.9
141.2
149.9
158.7
170.0
178.7

114.6
116.3
119.0
121.5
123.8
126.6
129.4
134.5
141.9
150.6
159.5
170.8
179.3

114.7
116.5
119.2
121.7
124.0
126.8
129.7
135.0
142.5
151.3
160.3
171.7
179.9

114.9
116.6
119.5
122.0
124.2
127.1
130.0
135.6
143.2
152.0
161.2
172.5

115.0
116.8
119.7
122.2
124.3
127.3
130.4
136.1
143.9
152.7
162.1
173.3

113.4
115.3
117.3
120.1
122.6
124.8
127.7
131.2
137.3
145.4
154.1
164.0
174.8

113.9
115.7
118.0
120.7
123.1
125.6
128.4
132.5
139.3
147.7
156.4
167.1
176.9

114.4
116.1
118.7
121.3
123.7
126.4
129.1
133.9
141.2
149.9
158.7
170.0
178.7

114.9
116.6
119.5
122.0
124.2
127.1
130.0
135.6
143.2
152.0
161.2
172.5

114.1
115.9
118.4
121.0
123.4
126.0
128.8
133.3
140.3
148.7
157.6
168.4

79.1
82.9
85.7
81.8
78.2
78.0
80.3
81.1
84.0
80.9
81.7
82.5
79.6

80.2
83.1
84.5
82.5
77.5
78.5
80.4
81.1
83.4
81.4
82.1
81.9
79.7

80.3
82.9
85.0
82.6
76.6
79.0
80.5
81.7
83.3
80.6
82.1
81.5
79.6

80.6
83.7
85.0
81.8
76.8
79.4
80.7
82.1
82.8
81.3
82.1
81.5
79.5

80.7
83.5
84.2
82.0
77.1
79.5
80.3
82.6
82.6
81.6
82.1
81.3
79.7

81.4
83.4
84.1
81.8
78.1
79.3
80.2
82.6
82.7
81.8
82.4
80.1
79.6

81.8
83.8
83.0
81.6
78.2
79.8
80.2
82.7
81.8
81.8
82.4
79.7
79.7

81.5
84.0
83.1
81.7
78.2
79.5
79.7
82.9
82.3
81.9
82.6
80.8
79.7

81.5
84.0
82.7
81.5
79.0
79.6
80.5
82.9
82.6
82.0
82.7
80.4
79.5

82.5
84.1
82.1
80.9
78.9
79.9
80.7
83.1
82.2
81.6
82.8
80.5
79.7

82.8
84.8
82.2
79.7
78.6
80.2
80.9
83.4
81.9
81.8
82.8
80.2

83.1
85.1
82.1
79.0
78.1
79.9
81.3
83.8
81.5
81.7
82.6
79.9

79.9
83.0
85.1
82.3
77.5
78.5
80.4
81.3
83.6
80.9
81.9
82.0
79.6

80.9
83.5
84.4
81.9
77.3
79.4
80.4
82.4
82.7
81.6
82.2
81.0
79.6

81.6
83.9
82.9
81.6
78.5
79.6
80.1
82.9
82.3
81.9
82.5
80.3
79.6

82.8
84.7
82.1
79.9
78.5
80.0
81.0
83.4
81.8
81.7
82.7
80.2

81.3
83.8
83.6
81.4
77.9
79.4
80.5
82.5
82.6
81.5
82.4
80.9

Year
Industrial
Production,
Percent
Change
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

Utilization
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1. Estimates from August 1999 through October 1999 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.

8

Table 3
RATES OF GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY MAJOR MARKET GROUPS, 1995–19991
Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)

Revised growth rate
(percent)
Item

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Total index

3.5

5.3

6.8

2.9

3.6

.0

.0

.2

1.0

.7

Products, total
Final products

1.9
2.4

4.3
4.4

5.2
5.7

2.5
2.3

1.9
2.1

–.1
–.2

.0
.1

.1
.1

.4
.3

.3
.5

Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Autos and trucks
Autos
Trucks
Auto parts and allied goods
Other durable goods
Appliances and electronics
Appliances and air cond.
Home electronics
Carpeting and furniture
Miscellaneous
Nondurable
Nonenergy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy products
Fuels
Utilities

1.6
1.6
–3.3
–6.3
–12.8
.2
2.4
5.5
19.2
–2.1
42.3
–3.0
.9
1.6
.9
–.2
–3.9
5.0
1.8
6.4
1.5
8.7

2.0
1.8
2.4
2.5
–6.2
9.2
2.2
1.3
4.1
–.9
9.4
3.1
–1.3
2.0
1.9
1.2
–.4
4.8
1.4
2.5
3.6
2.0

2.8
5.5
10.3
13.0
3.6
19.1
5.9
1.8
1.4
–2.2
5.6
3.0
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.2
–2.4
2.4
4.6
1.8
1.8
1.6

–.9
5.0
4.7
4.2
2.7
5.0
6.0
5.1
23.8
9.8
39.4
2.5
–3.3
–2.5
–2.3
–1.3
–8.1
–.2
–5.4
–3.9
–.6
–5.1

1.5
7.5
4.0
4.4
–7.2
10.7
3.0
10.6
23.6
.6
57.4
6.1
5.8
–.1
–1.3
–1.7
–3.9
–.3
–.4
9.3
1.9
12.6

.3
1.3
–.8
–1.6
–5.6
–1.1
.6
3.0
10.3
–.1
22.2
.0
–.2
.0
.0
.2
–.4
–.1
–.3
.1
.1
.1

–.2
–.5
.4
.0
–2.4
1.1
1.1
–1.2
–4.8
–.7
–8.9
.1
.5
–.2
–.2
–.2
–.2
–.1
–.4
.1
.1
.2

.1
–1.0
1.0
.7
.2
3.5
1.3
–2.5
–10.4
–1.7
–18.6
.6
.9
.4
.4
.9
–.3
–.4
.7
.3
.1
.2

–.5
.1
.8
1.2
2.0
.0
–.1
–.6
4.3
–1.5
11.6
–1.1
–2.0
–.7
–.7
–1.9
–2.4
2.2
–.6
–.4
.0
–.3

.2
.0
–.1
–.2
–2.2
.9
–.1
.2
–1.7
–1.0
5.7
1.4
1.6
.3
.9
1.2
3.6
–.1
–.7
–2.8
–.9
–4.6

Equipment, total
Business equipment
Information processing & related
Computer and office
Industrial
Transit
Autos and trucks
Other
Defense and space equipment
Oil and gas well drilling
Manufactured homes

3.7
5.7
12.2
31.8
8.4
–10.9
–8.2
2.0
–6.4
2.6
7.3

8.6
10.8
18.5
53.5
1.1
15.8
–3.7
6.0
–2.5
7.8
3.8

10.3
12.8
16.0
32.2
4.8
21.7
11.7
10.7
–4.0
9.6
8.9

7.3
10.0
20.0
77.7
.7
10.7
6.4
–1.6
.6
–25.3
6.7

3.0
4.4
22.4
49.7
–4.4
–9.9
–.7
–12.9
–2.5
–7.7
–15.8

–.9
–1.3
–2.8
–12.9
–.1
–1.4
–2.2
.1
.7
.2
–1.3

.6
1.0
2.0
11.6
–.1
1.5
–.7
.5
–1.6
.3
4.4

–.1
–.3
–.2
–11.5
–.3
–1.1
–.6
.3
–.1
.3
9.6

1.6
1.7
5.6
23.0
–.8
–1.4
1.3
–.2
.9
.0
–2.4

1.0
1.2
2.4
13.6
–1.7
.5
–1.8
–.1
.6
–1.9
1.9

.5
–.4
1.1

3.8
5.8
2.4

3.6
2.8
4.1

3.0
5.6
1.4

1.4
2.6
.5

.0
–.1
.0

.0
.0
.0

.3
.4
.3

.6
.5
.7

–.2
–.6
.1

6.0

6.9

9.2

3.5

6.5

.3

.0

.2

1.9

1.4

Intermediate products
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Semiconductors, printed circuit
boards, and oth. elec. comps.
Other
Basic metals
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Other
Energy
Primary
Converted fuel

11.4
3.0
28.2

10.6
1.8
23.4

14.3
9.5
26.5

7.3
–2.8
22.2

9.4
5.3
21.3

.4
–.6
1.9

.4
.6
.7

1.0
2.2
.1

3.5
–1.4
10.3

2.2
.7
6.7

71.7
2.1
.9
–2.6
–7.2
–2.8
–1.1
–3.0
.7
.4
1.2

52.2
4.0
4.7
3.4
2.3
4.3
4.6
.6
.7
–.9
3.7

54.2
6.0
5.5
4.2
3.1
4.6
4.4
4.3
.1
–.1
.4

56.6
–.7
–5.6
–2.9
–9.5
–2.6
–3.5
1.6
–1.0
–.4
–2.2

50.8
1.1
4.3
3.4
–1.2
3.5
6.9
–1.2
–.1
–.5
.7

6.3
–.3
–.7
–.1
.0
.0
–.2
–.1
.1
.1
.1

2.8
.1
.8
–.3
–.4
–.1
–.5
.1
–.1
–.2
.1

.9
1.0
1.2
–.2
–.1
–.2
–.6
.5
–.2
–.3
–.1

26.8
.1
.1
–.1
–2.3
.0
.2
.3
–.3
–.5
.0

14.8
–1.2
–1.0
1.2
2.2
.0
2.9
–1.1
–1.1
–1.4
–.6

SPECIAL AGGREGATES
Total excluding:
Autos and trucks
Motor vehicles and parts
Computers
Computers and semiconductors2

3.9
3.8
2.9
1.0

5.5
5.7
4.6
3.0

6.6
6.4
6.3
4.7

2.8
3.0
1.5
–.1

3.7
3.6
2.5
.9

.1
.1
.0
–.1

.1
.1
.0
.0

.2
.1
.4
.5

1.0
1.0
.7
–.1

.8
.8
.4
–.1

Consumer goods excluding:
Autos and trucks
Energy

2.1
1.1

1.9
1.9

2.2
2.9

–1.2
–.6

1.3
.7

.4
.3

–.3
–.3

.0
.1

–.6
–.6

.2
.6

Business equipment excluding:
Autos and trucks
Computer and office equipment

7.3
3.4

12.4
7.2

12.9
10.9

10.3
4.0

4.9
–.9

–1.2
–.4

1.2
.3

–.3
.5

1.8
–.2

1.4
–.9

Materials excluding:
Energy

7.2

8.5

11.4

4.5

7.9

.3

.1

.3

2.5

2.0

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1999, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the third quarter
of 1999 and annualized.

9

Table 4
RATES OF GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1995–19991

Item

SIC

1995

Revised growth rate
(percent)
1996
1997
1998

1999

1995

Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)
1996
1997
1998

1999

Total index

3.5

5.3

6.8

2.9

3.6

.0

.0

.2

1.0

.7

Manufacturing

3.6

5.9

7.4

3.7

3.9

.0

.0

.1

1.2

1.0

–.5
5.6

4.1
6.8

4.5
9.0

–.5
5.7

2.6
4.4

–.2
.1

.0
.1

.6
.2

–.2
1.8

.1
1.4

7.0
.6
–.8
2.6

8.9
1.8
4.6
5.8

11.4
4.5
3.7
3.3

7.7
4.2
3.3
5.0

6.9
–.2
3.3
–.2

.1
–.2
.0
–.1

.3
.0
–.1
–.5

.3
1.4
.4
.7

2.4
.0
–.1
.0

1.4
–.2
1.0
.6

–1.2
–2.0
–1.1
–.2
1.0

5.6
5.2
–.1
6.2
4.2

6.0
6.1
7.2
6.0
5.9

–6.4
–11.6
–12.8
.0
.0

7.7
13.7
10.8
1.1
.0

–1.0
–1.7
–1.8
–.1
–.2

1.0
1.6
1.6
.3
.1

1.1
1.1
–.1
1.1
1.4

.7
.1
.1
1.7
–.6

–1.8
–2.2
–2.4
–1.7
–1.0

13.7
40.2
27.6

10.5
46.5
23.4

11.1
27.8
26.2

16.1
78.9
21.5

9.4
50.9
24.3

–.4
–1.4
1.7

.7
3.6
1.2

–2.3
–15.8
2.0

3.2
25.9
10.1

2.4
11.7
5.1

63.4

46.9

49.9

48.5

43.3

5.4

2.3

1.3

22.8

11.9

372–6,9
38
39

–4.8
–1.8
–7.1
–9.4
4.2
2.5

4.8
–1.4
1.6
15.0
2.4
2.6

13.2
13.8
11.3
12.3
3.3
3.1

2.2
1.0
4.0
4.1
1.9
–.6

–2.5
4.1
2.5
–10.8
4.2
5.6

–.6
–1.2
–2.0
.3
.0
.0

–.1
.0
–.3
–.3
–.6
–.1

.1
1.0
.4
–1.1
–.3
1.7

–.9
.3
1.4
–2.5
.0
2.8

.4
.0
–.5
.4
–.2
1.2

20
21
22
23
26

–.3
.7
–4.3
–4.5
–4.1
–2.4

2.5
.8
.6
1.9
–1.2
3.0

2.9
1.9
5.3
3.8
–2.5
4.1

–1.1
1.8
–18.4
–6.4
–7.3
–1.2

–.1
–1.4
–2.8
5.6
–7.0
1.8

.0
.2
.1
.1
–.5
.1

–.1
–.3
.7
.0
–.3
.0

.3
.0
6.1
.3
–.5
–.1

–.2
.0
–9.7
–3.5
–1.2
.0

.4
.7
3.7
4.7
1.4
–.3

27
28
29
30
31

–.3
1.5
.7
.2
–5.8

1.8
4.7
4.1
4.0
2.0

3.9
2.6
2.7
4.6
–7.1

–1.6
–.7
2.1
3.1
–8.2

–2.1
1.4
1.0
3.6
–8.2

–.1
–.1
.0
.0
–.2

–.1
–.2
.4
.0
.7

.3
–.5
.7
.3
1.6

.2
1.6
.6
–.3
–.8

–.2
.1
–.7
–.1
–1.5

10
12
13
14

–.8
4.5
–1.0
–1.4
–1.2

1.9
4.0
2.6
1.1
4.8

1.9
2.9
1.9
1.7
3.1

–5.0
–2.1
2.8
–8.4
3.8

–3.0
–15.9
–.9
–1.8
–5.0

.1
–.1
.4
.0
–.1

–.1
–.6
–1.7
.1
.0

–.2
–1.5
–.3
–.1
–.3

–.1
–.9
–.2
.1
.3

–.9
5.1
.7
–2.2
–.8

6.4
5.3
10.9

1.2
1.0
2.2

2.1
2.9
–1.8

–1.4
.8
–12.2

6.0
4.4
15.2

.1
.1
.1

.1
.0
.4

.2
.3
–.5

–.3
–.6
1.2

–1.9
–1.6
–4.0

Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors2

43.8

39.1

36.6

43.9

39.0

1.8

2.4

–1.9

17.2

7.1

Manufacturing excluding:
Motor vehicles and parts
Computer and office equipment
Computers and semiconductors2
Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors2

4.0
2.9
.6

6.4
5.1
3.3

7.1
7.0
5.1

3.9
2.2
.3

3.8
2.5
.7

.1
.0
–.2

.0
.0
.0

.2
.5
.5

1.3
.8
.0

1.1
.6
.1

.4

3.0

4.7

.0

.2

–.1

.0

.4

–.2

.1

Primary processing
Advanced processing
Durable
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products

24
25
32

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333–6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous

37
371

Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas 492,3pt

491,3pt

SPECIAL AGGREGATES

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1999, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the third quarter
of 1999 and annualized.
Note—Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers,
petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass products.
Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and other
agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment, electrical
machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures.

10

Table 5
RATES OF GROWTH IN CAPACITY, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1995–19991

Item

SIC

1995

Revised growth rate
(percent)
1996
1997
1998

1999

1995

Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)
1996
1997
1998

1999

Total index

5.0

5.4

5.4

6.3

4.2

–.3

–.3

.3

1.3

.8

Manufacturing

5.6

6.1

6.1

7.0

4.7

–.4

–.3

.3

1.4

.9

3.1
6.9

3.5
7.2

3.9
7.0

3.8
8.5

2.4
5.6

–.2
–.5

–.3
–.3

.0
.6

.8
1.8

.4
1.2

8.8
3.3
4.4
2.0

9.3
3.6
4.3
3.3

8.7
3.4
3.8
3.1

10.7
3.1
3.2
2.8

7.3
2.9
2.0
3.5

–.6
.2
1.9
–3.7

–.4
–.2
–1.6
–1.5

.2
–.8
–1.3
.2

2.8
.2
1.3
2.1

1.8
–.2
.1
.7

2.5
1.9
3.2
3.2
1.6
.0

5.7
5.2
2.7
6.4
–5.1
.4

3.5
3.8
6.0
3.1
.7
.0

3.5
5.2
6.2
1.5
–.5
.0

2.5
3.9
1.5
.8
–2.2
.0

–.2
–.1
.1
–.4
–.4
.0

2.1
.2
.0
4.4
–.4
.0

.0
–.1
.2
.3
1.3
.0

.1
.1
–.7
.1
–1.2
.0

.9
1.7
–.7
.1
–2.6
.0

Primary processing
Advanced processing
Durable
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metals
Iron and steel
Raw steel
Nonferrous
Primary copper
Primary aluminum

24
25
32

33
331,2
333–6,9
3331
3334

Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9

6.0

5.1

6.1

5.8

.3

.8

–.3

–.4

1.6

.0

10.0
30.3
29.8

12.3
42.5
30.9

14.2
50.9
22.9

15.8
58.8
30.5

15.3
61.9
17.3

–1.5
–4.3
1.0

–.7
–3.6
.7

2.2
7.7
–.7

1.2
–.6
12.2

4.5
20.6
4.0

63.0

59.1

43.0

61.1

31.6

4.3

2.6

–3.6

27.6

4.2

Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous

372–6,9
38
39

2.2
5.3
.2
–1.4
2.5
2.6

.5
1.5
–4.5
–1.0
.3
2.4

2.4
3.6
4.2
.7
.8
.5

2.7
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.2
1.4

–.1
.2
–1.7
–.7
4.0
1.1

–2.1
–3.1
–4.4
–1.1
–.2
.9

–2.0
–2.4
–4.0
–1.6
.2
.5

.4
.4
3.4
.4
–.5
–1.4

.6
.2
–.2
1.3
–.2
–.5

–.6
–.7
–1.0
–.5
.7
–.9

20
22
23
26
261–3
27

2.0
2.4
2.6
1.6
3.0
2.9
.3

2.2
2.2
1.9
.3
1.4
1.2
.7

2.6
2.3
2.1
.6
3.3
2.3
1.9

2.4
2.2
.3
.6
3.1
1.4
1.6

1.3
1.9
.3
–.8
2.4
1.2
–.2

–.1
.2
.7
–.7
.5
.0
–.4

–.1
.2
–.3
–.4
–1.5
–.4
.4

.6
1.1
–2.4
–1.2
.9
.8
1.8

–.1
–.6
–.6
1.3
.1
–.3
–1.5

–.1
.0
1.4
.8
.0
.1
–.9

Chemicals and products
28
Plastics materials
2821
Synthetic fibers
2823,4
Petroleum products
29
Rubber and plastics products
30
Leather and products
31

2.5
3.0
–.7
–.2
4.1
–2.2

3.4
3.3
–2.0
1.4
4.2
–1.5

2.8
1.7
1.1
2.3
5.3
–1.9

2.9
3.7
.5
2.9
5.1
–2.8

1.0
3.7
1.6
1.6
5.4
–4.9

–.2
–1.9
–1.1
.0
–.3
–5.6

–.1
–2.5
–1.7
.6
–.7
–5.0

.1
–2.4
–1.4
1.0
.2
1.5

.4
.0
–2.4
1.8
.3
–2.4

–.2
.3
–2.0
.5
.1
1.5

10
12
13
138
14

–.4
.7
.3
–1.0
–1.6
2.3

.4
1.6
1.8
–.3
–1.2
3.6

1.6
3.2
.2
1.2
1.0
4.3

.9
1.1
.4
.6
1.9
2.9

–.2
–1.5
.4
–.6
–3.1
1.6

.0
.1
–.2
.0
.0
.0

.0
–.1
.1
–.1
.0
.0

.0
.3
–1.5
.2
.1
–.1

.0
.3
–1.3
.1
.0
–1.2

–1.2
–2.0
–1.6
–.7
–2.1
–2.6

491,3pt

1.7
2.3
.5

1.8
1.9
1.9

.2
–.2
1.5

.7
.7
1.1

1.4
1.4
1.0

.0
.1
.0

–.1
.0
–.2

–.1
–.1
–.5

.0
.0
–.4

.9
.8
–.4

42.0

45.6

37.9

48.2

35.7

1.1

–.7

.5

13.3

9.4

2.7

2.6

3.0

3.0

1.3

–.5

–.3

.3

.4

–.1

Nondurable
Foods
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Pulp and paper
Printing and publishing

Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Oil and gas well drilling
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas 492,3pt

37
371

SPECIAL AGGREGATES
Computers, communications eq, and
semiconductors2
Manufacturing ex. computers,
communications eq., and
semiconductors2

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading.
Note—Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers,
petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass products.
Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and other
agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment, electrical
machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures.

11

Table 6
REVISED AND EARLIER CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
Difference between
revised and earlier rates
(percentage points)

Revised rate
19671998
Ave.

19881989
High

19901991
Low

1997
Q4

1998
Q4

1999
Q3

1997
Q4

1998
Q4

1999
Q3

Total index

82.1

85.4

78.1

83.7

81.0

80.6

.2

.0

.0

Manufacturing

81.1

85.7

76.6

82.7

80.2

79.6

.3

.1

.2

82.4
80.5

88.9
84.2

77.7
76.1

86.3
81.5

82.8
79.4

82.9
78.5

1.0
.1

.2
.1

.1
.2

79.5
82.6
81.2
78.5

84.6
93.6
86.6
83.5

73.1
75.5
72.5
69.7

82.7
82.9
78.5
83.7

80.5
83.7
78.7
85.5

80.1
81.8
79.4
83.2

.7
1.6
.6
3.0

.3
1.4
–.4
1.3

.2
1.4
.0
1.1

81.2
81.2
80.9
81.5
75.5
88.4

92.7
95.2
92.7
89.3
86.3
100.4

73.7
71.8
71.5
74.2
73.5
97.3

92.0
93.1
90.3
90.7
94.6
86.4

83.2
78.3
74.2
89.3
86.8
88.6

86.3
83.7
79.1
89.5
74.2
90.3

.0
1.3
.3
–1.6
–.9
.1

.6
1.2
.8
–.2
.8
.1

–1.0
–.8
.1
–1.4
7.2
–.2

78.0

82.0

71.9

79.9

75.5

75.1

1.1

–.5

–1.1

81.4
81.2
81.1

85.4
86.9
84.0

72.3
66.9
75.0

83.8
76.0
83.7

84.1
85.7
77.9

80.9
81.3
80.7

–1.6
–7.6
2.0

.0
5.5
1.0

–.7
2.9
1.1

79.9

81.1

75.6

85.1

78.5

82.5

1.3

–.4

1.9

37
371

75.9
76.7

372–6,9
38
39

75.3
81.6
75.7

85.8
89.1
92.3
87.3
81.4
79.0

68.5
55.9
53.3
79.2
77.2
71.7

81.1
82.0
85.9
79.8
80.6
80.8

80.6
80.6
87.0
80.9
80.5
79.1

79.2
82.9
89.9
74.4
80.7
81.7

1.0
.7
–1.8
1.4
–.2
1.1

–.1
.7
–.5
–1.5
.0
3.5

.5
1.2
.0
–.9
–.5
4.8

20
22
23
26
261–3
27

83.4
82.9
85.6
80.9
89.2
92.4
85.7

87.3
85.4
90.4
85.1
93.5
98.0
91.7

80.7
82.7
77.7
75.5
85.0
89.9
79.6

83.2
80.5
87.0
77.1
89.8
94.6
83.8

80.3
80.2
81.2
71.0
86.1
90.7
81.1

79.5
78.2
84.4
67.6
85.7
92.4
79.9

–.1
–1.6
2.3
.9
.4
–.4
–1.3

–.2
–1.1
–.3
–1.0
.4
–.1
.1

.2
–.6
1.8
–.6
.2
–.1
.6

Chemicals and products
28
Plastics materials
2821
Synthetic fibers
2823,4
Petroleum products
29
Rubber and plastics products
30
Leather and products
31

79.5
86.7
84.8
86.8
84.6
81.1

86.2
97.0
99.7
88.5
89.6
83.3

79.3
74.8
77.6
85.1
77.4
76.1

79.8
92.4
80.0
94.8
86.7
74.9

77.0
91.7
77.0
94.1
85.0
70.7

77.2
89.2
80.1
93.7
84.0
68.8

.0
–.4
–5.9
–.4
1.2
8.0

.9
–.3
–2.2
–1.4
.6
8.5

1.1
–.4
–2.7
–2.3
.5
7.0

87.5
79.5
86.7
88.5
74.2
84.8

88.0
89.4
91.5
88.2
69.3
89.0

87.0
79.9
83.4
88.7
60.0
79.4

88.6
90.6
85.7
89.5
86.3
85.0

83.3
87.7
87.7
81.5
63.3
85.8

81.6
77.9
86.8
80.8
60.9
81.5

–.1
–1.5
1.2
–.1
.6
–.5

–.2
–2.6
2.1
–.1
.4
.8

.0
2.4
3.5
–1.0
.4
1.7

87.4
89.3
82.1

92.6
95.0
85.0

83.4
87.1
67.1

91.3
93.6
81.7

89.3
93.7
70.9

92.4
95.8
78.2

.5
.4
.6

.2
–.2
1.7

–1.6
–1.9
.2

Computers, communications eq, and
semiconductors2

80.3

81.9

72.4

81.9

79.5

80.5

–.1

2.4

1.4

Manufacturing ex. computers,
communications eq., and
semiconductors2

81.2

86.1

76.8

83.0

80.5

79.8

.4

–.1

.0

Item

SIC

Primary processing
Advanced processing
Durable
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metals
Iron and steel
Raw steel
Nonferrous
Primary copper
Primary aluminum

24
25
32

33
331,2
333–6,9
3331
3334

Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks1
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous
Nondurable
Foods
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Pulp and paper
Printing and publishing

Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Oil and gas well drilling
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas 492,3pt

10
12
13
138
14
491,3pt

SPECIAL AGGREGATES

1. Series begins in 1977.
Note—The “high” column refers to periods in which utilization generally peaked; the “low” column refers to recession years in which utilization
generally bottomed out. The monthly highs and lows are specific to each series, and all did not occur in the same month.

12

Table 7
ANNUAL PROPORTIONS IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS

Item

SIC

Durable
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products

24
25
32

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

85.4

85.9

86.7

86.8

86.8

87.7

88.3

26.1
58.4

Primary processing
Advanced processing

1993

84.5

Manufacturing

1992

100.0

Total index

1991

26.6
58.9

27.0
58.9

28.2
58.5

28.0
58.8

27.6
59.3

27.5
60.3

27.0
61.3

44.2
1.8
1.3
2.1

44.9
2.1
1.4
2.1

45.6
2.2
1.4
2.1

46.3
2.2
1.4
2.2

46.7
2.1
1.4
2.2

47.6
2.1
1.4
2.3

48.6
2.1
1.4
2.3

49.4
2.2
1.4
2.4

3.1
1.7
.1
1.4
4.9

3.1
1.8
.1
1.4
5.0

3.3
1.9
.1
1.4
5.1

3.6
2.0
.1
1.6
5.2

3.5
1.9
.1
1.6
5.3

3.5
1.9
.1
1.6
5.4

3.6
2.0
.1
1.6
5.5

3.4
1.8
.1
1.5
5.6

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333–6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9

7.9
1.6
6.8

7.8
1.6
7.1

8.1
1.6
7.4

8.4
1.6
7.8

8.9
1.7
8.3

9.2
1.8
8.6

9.4
1.8
8.9

10.0
2.2
8.8

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.5

Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous

372–6,9
38
39

9.6
4.6
2.6
5.0
5.4
1.3

9.5
4.7
2.5
4.7
5.4
1.3

9.4
5.1
2.6
4.4
5.3
1.3

9.3
5.5
2.8
3.8
4.9
1.3

8.9
5.5
2.8
3.5
4.8
1.3

8.8
5.3
2.7
3.5
4.9
1.4

9.2
5.3
2.7
3.9
4.8
1.4

9.4
5.2
2.6
4.2
4.9
1.4

20
21
22
23
26

40.3
9.4
1.6
1.7
2.2
3.7

40.5
9.6
1.6
1.8
2.2
3.5

40.3
9.6
1.1
1.8
2.1
3.4

40.4
9.3
1.2
1.8
2.1
3.8

40.1
9.2
1.3
1.7
2.0
3.9

39.2
9.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
3.5

39.2
8.9
1.4
1.6
1.8
3.5

38.9
8.8
1.6
1.5
1.7
3.4

27
28
29
30
31

6.8
9.9
1.5
3.3
.3

6.8
9.9
1.4
3.5
.3

6.8
9.9
1.5
3.6
.3

6.6
10.0
1.6
3.8
.2

6.6
9.9
1.5
3.7
.2

6.6
9.7
1.6
3.7
.2

6.8
9.8
1.4
3.7
.2

6.8
9.7
1.4
3.8
.2

10
12
13
14

7.5
.5
1.1
5.3
.6

6.8
.5
1.0
4.7
.6

6.4
.4
.9
4.4
.6

6.0
.5
.9
4.0
.6

6.1
.5
.9
4.1
.6

6.5
.4
.9
4.6
.6

5.9
.4
.9
4.1
.6

5.4
.4
.8
3.6
.6

8.0
6.5
1.5

7.8
6.2
1.6

7.7
6.1
1.6

7.4
5.8
1.5

7.1
5.6
1.5

6.7
5.4
1.3

6.3
5.2
1.1

6.3
5.3
1.0

Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors2

5.3

5.7

5.8

6.2

6.9

7.3

7.7

8.1

Manufacturing excluding:
Motor vehicles and parts
Computer and office equipment
Computers and semiconductors2
Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors2

80.0
82.9
80.6

80.7
83.8
81.3

80.8
84.3
81.7

81.1
85.0
82.1

81.4
85.1
81.7

81.6
85.0
81.4

82.4
85.9
82.3

83.0
86.1
82.5

79.2

79.8

80.1

80.4

80.0

79.5

80.1

80.2

37
371

Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas 492,3pt

491,3pt

SPECIAL AGGREGATES

Note– The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall IP growth in the following year. For example, a 1
percent increase in durable goods manufacturing in 1999 would account for a 0.494 percent increase in total IP.

13

Table 8
RATES OF GROWTH IN ELECTRIC POWER USE, 1995–19991
Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)

Revised growth rate
(percent)
Item

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

–.8

1.5

1.2

–.9

–2.9

.0

.1

.2

–.6

.5

–.9

1.4

1.3

–.9

–3.0

.0

.1

.2

–.6

.5

.5

–.3

4.7

–1.2

–.1

.0

–.1

1.6

–1.3

.4

24
25
32
33
34

1.5
–3.7
.2
1.5
.1

4.1
4.2
3.5
–3.8
3.7

3.4
1.6
1.5
6.7
4.6

1.7
.6
2.6
–3.8
–1.2

1.5
4.0
–.8
.0
–.2

.0
–.1
.0
–.1
.0

–.2
–.1
.1
.0
.0

3.6
.2
.8
2.6
1.5

–1.4
.4
.0
–2.4
–.8

.3
1.7
1.3
.2
–.5

35
36
37
38
39

.5
1.4
–1.9
.4
–4.8

1.3
2.4
–.7
–2.9
7.2

4.2
3.0
5.6
1.0
2.1

1.0
–2.0
–.8
3.8
8.3

–2.2
–4.4
2.9
.1
7.4

.1
–.1
.1
.0
–.1

–.1
–.1
–.3
–.1
.3

1.2
.7
.4
.4
1.8

–2.5
–.9
–.8
2.2
6.5

–.8
.6
.9
2.0
–1.6

–2.0

2.8

–1.4

–.7

–5.4

.0

.2

–.9

.1

.6

2.5
6.4
–3.3
–6.3
–.3
.6
–6.5
7.4
–.5
–9.3

1.7
.0
2.7
–1.8
1.1
.8
6.0
–3.2
3.3
–1.5

3.3
.7
3.2
–1.7
2.4
2.9
–5.6
–3.4
1.9
–1.3

2.3
–1.7
–1.4
–3.4
–.8
2.2
–2.3
–1.2
3.6
–3.8

–3.2
–6.3
–3.6
–9.1
–.3
–5.0
–11.8
.9
.9
–6.0

.0
.1
.0
.0
.3
–.1
–.1
.1
.0
–.1

.0
.2
–.2
.0
.7
.0
.3
.1
–.2
–.1

1.1
.2
1.1
.2
.2
–.1
–1.5
–5.9
1.3
.3

–.1
.0
–3.3
–1.0
.8
.3
.2
1.8
–1.2
–.8

–.4
–1.5
.4
1.7
3.1
.2
.4
–.5
–.2
.9

1.1

3.0

–.2

–.6

–1.0

.0

.2

.2

–.9

1.1

8.3
–1.3
–5.0
6.0

2.6
.0
4.5
4.4

.4
.0
1.5
–4.8

–.1
1.0
–6.6
9.5

–2.2
–1.7
2.2
–4.1

–.1
.0
.0
.3

.1
.0
.1
.7

–.1
.7
.5
–.6

–.1
–.6
–1.3
–2.0

2.2
.6
–.5
2.9

.6
–1.1
4.8

1.0
2.1
–5.7

2.4
1.2
.7

–1.3
–.8
–1.9

–.9
–2.9
3.9

.0
.0
.0

.1
.1
.0

.2
.2
–.1

–.6
–.6
–.7

.5
.4
.7

Total
Manufacturing
Durable
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, & glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Industrial machinery
and equipment
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

20
21
22
23
26
27
28
29
30
31

Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

10
12
13
14

SUPPLEMENTARY GROUPS
Total, excluding nuclear nondefense
Utility sales to industry
Industrial generation

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1999, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the third quarter
of 1999 and annualized.

14

Explanatory Note
The statistical release of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports
measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on
the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. Files containing data in the
release and historical data are available under statistical releases at
http://www.federalreserve.gov, the Board’s World Wide Web site. For paid access
to these files through the Depatment of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or
World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or (202) 452-1986.
Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release are
available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications
Services, (202) 452-3245.

Industrial Production
Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures output in the
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period
for the index is 1992. For the period since 1992, the total IP index has been
constructed from 267 individual series based on the 1987 Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC). These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market
groups (shown in table 1), such as consumer goods, equipment, intermediate
products, and materials; and (2) industry groups (shown in tables 2 and 6), such as
two-digit SIC industries and major aggregates of these industries—for example,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Market groups. For purposes of analysis, the individual IP series are grouped into
final products, intermediate products, and materials. Final products are assumed to be
purchased by consumers, businesses, or government for final use. Intermediate
products are expected to become inputs in nonindustrial sectors, such as
construction, agriculture, and services. Materials are industrial output requiring
further processing within the industrial sector. Total products comprise final and
intermediate products, and final products are divided into consumer goods and
equipment.
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the
following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in
tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source
data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in
tables.) After the fourth month, indexes are not revised further until the time of an
annual revision or a benchmark revision. The last three benchmark revisions were
published in 1990, 1985, and 1976.

period. In most cases (about 83 percent), the direction of change in output indicated
by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes,
and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes
shown in the release.

Capacity Utilization
Definition. Capacity utilization is calculated for the manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities industries. For a given industry, the utilization rate is equal to
an output index divided by a capacity index. Output is measured by seasonally
adjusted indexes of industrial production. The capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable practical capacity, which is defined as the greatest level of
output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule,
taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to
operate the machinery and equipment in place. The 76 individual capacity indexes
are based on a variety of data, including capacity data measured in physical units
compiled by trade associations, surveys of utilization rates and investment, and
estimates of growth of the capital input.
Groups. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups,
including primary and advanced processing industries within manufacturing,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and
total industry. Component industries of the primary and advanced processing groups
within manufacturing are listed in the note on tables 2 and 3 of the release.
Weights. Although each utilization rate is the result of dividing an IP series by a
corresponding capacity index, aggregate utilization rates are equivalent to
combinations of individual utilization rates aggregated with proportions that reflect
current capacity levels of output valued in current-period value added per unit of
actual output. The implied proportions of individual industry operating rates in the
rate for total industry for the most recent year are shown in the first column of table 3.
Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables
above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial
plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent:
none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime.

Source data. In annual or benchmark revisions, the individual IP indexes are
constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of
Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures,
prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the
Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. On a
monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from
two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on
inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical
products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade
associations as well as from government agencies including those listed above; data
of this type are used to estimate monthly IP where possible and appropriate. When
suitable data on physical product are unavailable, estimates of output are based on
either production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours
worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey
conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are
described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are
based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive data used
to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological
or cyclical developments. Especially for the first and second estimates for a given
month, the available source data are limited and subject to revision.

Electric Power

Weights. In the index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are
weighted according to their proportion in the total value-added output of all
industries. The industrial production index, which extends back to 1919, is built as an
annually weighted chain-type index since 1977. The components of IP are combined
using estimates of value added per unit of output. For months from January to June,
the weights are drawn from the year containing the month being estimated and the
preceding year; for months from July to December, the weights are drawn from the
current and following year. The IP proportions shown in column 1 of tables 1A, 2A,
and 6 are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the
following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing in
1997 would account for an increase in total IP of nearly 1/2 percent.

A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity
utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February
1997), pp. 67–92. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed
description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. To obtain
Industrial Production—1986 Edition ($9.00 per copy), write to Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, Washington, DC 20551. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been
described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March
1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, and February 1998). The basic
methodology used to estimate capacity and utilization is discussed in the June 1990
Federal Reserve Bulletin.

Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted by the X–11 ARIMA
method, developed at Statistics Canada. For series based on production-worker
hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 1999;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 1999. In
some cases, series were preadjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle
before using X–11 ARIMA. For the data since 1977, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of
the individual series.
Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to
sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.28 percent during the 1987–97
period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign,
from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–97

Data on electric power (expressed in kilowatt hours) are collected by the Federal
Reserve District Banks from electric utilities and also from manufacturing and
mining establishments that generate electric power for their own use (cogenerators).
The indexes of power use shown in table 9 are sums of kilowatt hours used by an
industry or industry group expressed as a percentage of that industry’s or group’s
usage in 1992. The first column of the table shows, for reference, electric power use
in billions of kilowatt hours as reported by manufacturing and mining industries in
the 1992 censuses of those industries. The supplementary group, “Total, less nuclear
nondefense,” is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the
nondefense nuclear material series (part of SIC 2819) in total IP is considerably
smaller than its share of total electric power use. Excluding this component from total
power use facilitates comparisons with total IP.

References
This annual revision will be described more completely in the February 2000 Federal
Reserve Bulletin.

Release Schedule for 1999 and 2000
At 9:15 a.m. on:
1999: January 15, February 17, March 16, April 16, May 14, June 16, July 16, August
17, September 16, October 15, November 16, and December 15.
2000: January 14, February 15, March 15, April 14, May 15, June 15, July 14, August
15, September 15, October 17, November 15, and December 15.

15


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102