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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) November 17, 2014 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after having advanced 0.8 percent in September. In October, manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. The index for mining declined 0.9 percent and the output of utilities moved down 0.7 percent. At 104.9 percent of its 2007 average, (over) Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary Seasonally adjusted 2007=100 Percent change Industrial production 2014 Mayr 2014 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Total index Previous estimates 103.7 103.7 104.0 104.0 104.3 104.2 104.1 104.0 105.0 105.1 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 100.2 97.1 107.2 90.9 84.0 111.3 100.0 96.8 106.9 91.0 84.3 112.3 100.8 97.5 108.2 91.2 85.2 112.2 100.0 96.5 107.9 91.4 85.2 112.3 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 99.5 99.5 129.0 101.3 99.9 99.8 130.8 99.3 100.7 100.5 130.6 96.4 100.2 100.0 131.2 97.1 104.9 .5 .5 .3 .3 .3 .2 -.2 -.2 .8 1.0 -.1 4.0 100.3 96.9 107.5 92.3 85.5 113.6 100.3 96.7 108.2 92.3 85.7 113.4 .0 -.3 .8 .6 1.4 .8 -.2 -.2 -.3 .1 .4 .9 .8 .7 1.2 .2 1.0 -.1 -.7 -1.0 -.3 .2 -.1 .1 .3 .4 -.4 1.0 .5 1.2 .0 -.2 .6 .0 .2 -.2 2.3 1.4 4.6 2.8 3.7 5.7 100.4 100.5 133.2 101.2 100.6 .4 .4 1.0 .3 .4 .3 1.4 -2.0 .8 .7 -.2 -3.0 -.5 -.5 .4 .8 .2 .5 1.6 4.2 .2 3.4 -.9 -.7 9.9 -1.3 132.1 100.5 Oct. ’13 to Oct. ’14 Capacity growth Percent of capacity Average 19722013 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high 2009 low 2013 Oct. 2014 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Oct. ’13 to Oct. ’14 Total industry Previous estimates 80.1 85.3 78.7 85.0 66.9 78.2 79.1 79.1 79.2 79.1 79.2 79.1 78.8 78.7 79.2 79.3 78.9 3.0 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 78.7 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.9 76.3 83.8 84.3 88.5 93.3 78.8 78.5 87.4 80.3 77.8 77.6 89.5 75.5 77.3 77.1 89.1 76.0 77.3 77.3 89.8 79.1 2.2 86.3 92.9 77.3 77.2 90.4 77.9 77.2 87.3 86.1 77.1 77.1 89.8 79.5 88.3 78.5 8.7 1.0 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.3 80.8 77.1 87.7 86.5 83.4 84.4 77.9 77.4 89.6 87.7 80.6 76.8 64.2 66.8 85.9 76.9 76.1 87.4 77.4 77.1 87.8 77.5 77.0 87.3 77.1 77.6 87.1 77.0 76.9 87.7 77.7 76.8 86.6 77.6 76.8 7.0 1.9 2.4 Capacity utilization r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information, respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 total industrial production in October was 4.0 percent above its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.3 percentage point in October to 78.9 percent, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2013) average. Market Groups In October, declines in the indexes for consumer goods and materials were the largest contributors to the decrease in total industrial production; the indexes for defense and space equipment and for business supplies also recorded declines. Gains in the production of business equipment and construction supplies offset some of the losses. The output of consumer goods moved down 0.2 percent, with decreases of more than 1 percent for automotive products and paper products and with a smaller decline for energy goods. The output of materials decreased 0.2 percent, as a decline in the production of energy materials was only partially offset by small gains in the indexes for durable and nondurable materials. By contrast, the production of business equipment moved up 0.6 percent, with increases in the indexes for information processing equipment and for industrial and other equipment; the output of business equipment was 4.6 percent above its level of a year earlier. Industry Groups Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in October, as the production of nondurable goods rose 0.3 percent and the production of durable goods edged up 0.1 percent. Among durable goods industries, machinery posted the largest increase, 1.3 percent, while wood products, computers and electronic products, and furniture and related products all recorded gains of more than 1/2 percent. These gains were partially offset by declines of more than 1 percent in the indexes for nonmetallic mineral products and for motor vehicles and parts. The decline in motor vehicles and parts resulted from a decrease in vehicle assemblies, which fell 400,000 units to an annual rate of 11.1 million. Production increased for most nondurable goods industries, with the largest advances recorded by chemicals and by plastics and rubber products; only the paper industry registered a decline. The production of other manufacturing (non-NAICS) industries fell 1.1 percent. The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing edged down 0.1 percentage point in October to 77.2 percent, a rate 1.5 percentage points below its long-run average. Although the operating rate for nondurable goods industries increased, utilization both for durables and for other manufacturing (non-NAICS) decreased. The utilization rate for mines fell 1.5 percentage points to 88.3 percent, while the rate for utilities decreased 0.6 percentage point to 78.5 percent. 2 Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Final Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 175 150 Ratio scale, 2007 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 175 150 125 125 Capacity 100 100 75 75 Production Detail: 2010 to present Production 50 106 50 102 98 94 90 86 82 2010 25 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2012 1995 2014 2000 78 2005 2010 2015 Percent of capacity 100 90 25 100 90 Utilization 80 80 70 70 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 60 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods 110 105 100 95 Ratio scale, 2007=100 110 105 100 95 Durable 130 130 110 110 90 Nondurable 90 Equipment Ratio scale, 2007=100 90 85 80 75 75 70 90 85 80 Business 70 65 70 70 Defense and Space 2005 Nonindustrial supplies 2010 65 50 110 2000 130 130 120 120 Construction 100 100 90 90 110 Energy 60 2000 2005 Capacity utilization 2010 85 80 75 70 60 60 70 2000 2005 Capacity utilization 2010 85 90 80 95 Crude processing 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 75 70 Excluding utilities 65 65 60 60 70 55 65 55 60 Percent of capacity 95 90 Primary and semifinished processing 80 Non-energy 70 Percent of capacity 90 100 90 80 70 50 Ratio scale, 2007=100 90 80 70 2010 110 100 Other business 80 2005 Industrial materials Ratio scale, 2007=100 110 2000 2000 2005 2010 70 Finished processing 2000 2005 2010 65 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 5 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2007 = 100 130 130 110 110 Excluding high-technology industries 90 90 70 70 50 30 50 Total IP 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Industrial production 2005 2010 2015 30 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 1990 1995 Ratio scale, 2007 = 100 400 200 Communications eq. 100 Computers 50 Semiconductors 2005 2010 2015 -15 Percent of capacity 100 Excluding high-technology industries 95 85 85 75 75 65 10 10 2000 2005 65 100 5 2000 100 95 50 -10 Capacity utilization 400 200 -5 2010 2015 5 45 High-technology industries 55 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 55 2015 45 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341), and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2013 proportion1 Annual rate 2014 Q1 Q2r Q3r Monthly rate 2014 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Oct. ’13 to Oct. ’14 2011 2012 2013 100.00 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.9 5.7 3.3 .5 .3 .3 -.2 .8 -.1 4.0 52.70 26.78 5.88 3.01 .13 .78 1.97 20.90 15.62 9.00 .19 4.65 1.29 5.27 2.3 2.0 8.0 15.1 5.2 1.3 .8 .5 1.1 .9 -7.8 2.6 -.3 -1.2 2.7 1.6 6.2 6.6 -2.5 3.7 7.5 .4 .2 3.1 -1.5 -3.8 -6.3 1.0 3.2 3.2 9.1 11.2 4.7 7.4 6.7 1.6 .3 .8 6.3 -.3 -2.9 5.7 3.7 4.4 -2.0 -2.2 -6.7 -5.5 .0 6.3 1.7 3.1 .3 1.5 -6.4 20.8 2.6 .4 11.2 15.3 18.4 19.1 1.9 -2.5 4.7 3.6 1.0 7.1 1.4 -20.3 1.7 -.5 10.6 17.6 7.8 12.5 -.4 -3.6 -.4 -4.5 -2.7 6.9 .9 -12.5 .2 -.3 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.2 .2 -.8 -.7 -1.3 -.8 -.6 1.8 -1.1 -.1 -.2 .6 .6 2.0 1.0 .5 -.5 .6 -.1 -.9 1.8 1.6 -3.6 .6 .7 4.4 7.6 -2.3 3.3 .1 -.4 -.2 -.7 2.0 .5 .0 -1.1 -.5 -1.0 -3.7 -5.6 3.9 -2.9 -1.3 -.2 .0 .0 -4.6 .5 -1.7 -.6 .5 .4 -.5 -1.8 -1.6 1.8 .7 .7 -.1 .1 4.1 -.3 -.9 3.1 .0 -.2 -.8 -1.7 1.3 -.3 .3 .0 .2 .0 .5 1.0 -1.3 -.5 2.4 1.4 3.5 3.9 6.9 7.0 1.1 .8 1.9 .9 .9 5.1 -4.3 -2.2 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 9.47 2.25 2.02 5.20 2.26 4.6 7.1 .9 5.3 -.5 6.6 14.6 6.3 3.7 4.6 3.4 3.2 3.9 3.3 1.7 5.1 -1.9 -1.5 10.9 -2.0 9.6 19.6 -.3 9.4 4.6 4.0 8.9 4.7 1.8 2.1 .8 1.2 .1 1.0 .0 -.3 .9 -.1 -.9 .3 1.2 3.4 .0 .7 .2 -.3 -3.4 1.5 .5 -.1 -.4 .3 .4 -1.0 .5 .6 -.9 .8 1.3 -.5 4.6 4.4 1.9 5.7 .8 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.14 9.27 2.5 .5 3.8 2.1 5.0 2.9 1.1 2.7 3.8 .2 7.6 2.3 1.4 .3 .4 -.1 1.0 -.1 -.1 .3 .5 1.3 .2 -.1 3.7 2.4 47.30 28.50 17.33 2.49 6.40 8.45 11.16 .41 1.88 5.68 18.81 4.1 3.7 7.1 5.2 11.8 4.1 -1.1 -2.4 -1.3 -1.6 4.7 3.8 4.5 6.1 8.6 8.2 3.8 2.1 -1.6 -2.3 4.5 2.6 3.5 2.6 4.2 6.5 4.1 3.5 .1 1.7 -.5 .2 4.9 4.1 1.2 2.8 -.2 5.8 1.5 -1.4 -9.1 -6.2 -.5 8.7 9.1 7.6 11.2 12.6 9.7 12.1 2.0 8.2 3.6 1.8 11.2 5.0 4.9 6.5 15.5 4.5 5.4 2.3 8.4 -2.7 7.6 5.2 .8 .7 1.3 1.9 1.9 .8 -.4 -3.2 -1.5 .1 1.0 .9 .7 1.1 1.3 -.1 1.8 .2 1.7 .5 .3 1.1 -.1 .5 .6 4.4 .0 -.1 .3 2.3 -1.0 1.0 -.9 .1 -.3 -.5 -3.0 .4 -.5 .2 -1.6 .6 .6 .6 1.2 .6 .5 -.4 .6 .7 .7 2.4 .1 .8 2.0 -.2 .2 .2 .5 .1 .3 .2 -.2 -.1 .4 -.8 5.7 4.3 5.9 7.2 5.6 5.7 1.7 2.8 -1.9 3.8 8.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 74.32 71.79 37.96 .91 1.51 3.12 5.61 5.60 6.07 3.1 3.3 6.0 1.0 -.1 8.5 6.4 8.1 6.7 3.5 3.9 6.2 7.8 2.2 -1.4 5.4 1.8 12.9 2.9 3.2 4.9 9.0 3.9 4.0 4.8 4.9 4.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 -11.2 4.2 -4.5 1.6 11.7 3.4 7.0 7.2 10.1 11.7 10.7 17.4 7.2 4.7 8.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 10.0 14.0 11.8 2.9 4.5 .8 .4 .4 1.2 .4 1.1 1.1 .7 1.4 1.0 .4 .4 .5 .3 1.3 2.5 1.3 -.8 -.3 .8 .9 1.4 2.3 1.8 .9 .3 .7 -.4 -.5 -.4 -1.0 -.1 .2 -.6 -1.6 1.3 .7 .2 .2 .2 -.6 .6 .9 1.1 -.9 .2 .2 .2 .1 .8 -1.2 -.2 .2 1.3 .7 3.4 3.7 4.6 2.5 6.5 5.5 4.3 5.6 3.8 335 3361–3 1.81 4.52 2.2 11.3 4.1 11.5 2.5 8.9 2.6 -2.5 4.4 17.8 4.2 18.4 1.3 2.3 .7 .0 -.2 9.4 .6 -7.2 -.3 -1.9 -.4 -1.2 2.8 4.7 3364–9 337 339 4.61 1.00 3.20 6.4 -.1 -.5 5.0 4.3 7.4 2.3 4.6 6.7 .9 3.5 -1.4 12.2 14.2 9.7 4.8 8.1 1.6 1.4 .2 1.4 .8 1.1 .3 .0 1.2 -.1 -.1 -1.1 -.8 .8 2.2 1.1 -.6 .6 .1 4.1 9.9 3.7 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 33.82 10.94 .66 .25 2.32 1.30 3.81 11.59 2.95 .4 .7 -.6 -5.1 -.4 -3.7 3.0 .1 .8 1.3 3.3 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.7 -1.5 1.0 4.9 1.2 1.0 .8 5.9 -1.4 3.1 1.7 .7 4.4 1.4 3.1 -9.2 -1.3 -7.1 1.5 4.5 .0 5.9 4.0 3.2 8.4 1.7 4.5 -.9 1.9 3.4 13.4 2.0 -4.5 8.7 -4.1 -2.9 2.8 3.3 7.1 7.3 -.6 -1.0 -1.3 -.9 -1.9 .1 -2.0 -.3 2.4 .3 -.4 1.1 -.9 .1 .9 -1.3 1.0 1.9 .2 -.6 2.1 1.9 -.5 .3 2.2 .7 -.8 .2 .0 -.8 -5.0 .5 -.5 .4 .6 .6 .3 .2 .7 4.0 .0 .2 -.2 .4 .4 .3 .0 .2 .5 -.2 .4 .1 .7 .8 2.8 1.0 2.7 .1 -2.3 2.3 2.6 4.2 8.2 1133,5111 2.53 -.2 -6.2 -3.4 -5.3 -.1 -7.4 .3 .4 -1.0 -1.6 -.7 -1.1 -6.4 21 2211,2 2211 2212 15.88 9.81 8.52 1.28 7.4 -2.2 -1.7 -5.8 4.2 .1 -.4 4.0 4.8 4.2 3.4 10.6 8.9 15.6 14.1 25.6 19.2 -21.8 -19.1 -37.2 7.9 -9.0 -8.7 -11.1 1.0 .3 .2 .7 1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -5.2 -.2 -3.0 -3.6 1.1 .4 .8 1.1 -1.6 1.6 4.2 4.6 1.1 -.9 -.7 -.3 -3.2 9.9 -1.3 -.4 -6.7 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are the relative weights for the rates of change for each series in the computation of the change in total industrial production in the following year. 7 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2013 proportion 2011 2012 100.00 3.2 27.74 5.27 2.92 .73 3.88 14.92 Annual rate 2013 2014 Q1 3.2 3.3 3.3 -1.2 -.2 21.3 -1.3 6.6 1.8 1.0 1.4 -7.5 .3 3.3 72.26 3.1 3341 3342 3.27 .35 .49 334412–9 Monthly rate Q2 r Q3 2014 Mayr June 3.9 5.7 3.3 .5 4.8 5.7 4.0 -1.2 1.0 6.1 10.5 20.8 6.2 3.4 15.5 7.0 2.3 -20.3 -11.0 14.0 -14.5 18.6 1.8 -12.5 2.9 12.2 -3.5 7.3 3.7 2.8 1.4 7.1 8.8 -20.0 11.2 16.9 2.6 -1.5 5.4 13.6 2.5 2.6 -19.1 -14.4 2.42 13.7 23.9 5.0 68.99 2.8 3.1 4.52 2.22 2.00 11.3 18.0 4.8 64.47 18.91 8.20 4.13 6.05 24.90 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable r r r r Oct. ’13 to Oct. ’14 Aug. .3 .3 -.2 .8 -.1 4.0 .5 -1.1 -.2 .9 .7 1.1 .0 -3.6 -1.1 .4 -.5 1.5 -.8 -1.1 .0 .5 -3.3 -.3 .4 -.6 .5 1.8 2.6 .2 2.3 3.1 3.6 1.9 2.4 1.9 -.8 -.5 -.9 -.8 -.6 -.8 5.5 -2.2 2.0 8.9 2.1 9.4 3.9 .5 .5 .7 -.5 .2 .2 3.4 16.9 -1.3 6.6 -.4 18.7 4.6 2.3 1.9 1.3 -.2 3.0 .7 -.6 -.8 .1 -.1 4.4 .2 -.1 -1.4 .2 .4 -.5 .3 4.7 -1.5 .1 9.9 21.6 -3.5 2.5 -.7 -.8 -.7 .0 .6 6.6 2.7 1.4 6.6 4.1 .4 .5 .8 -.5 .2 .2 3.4 11.5 12.7 9.7 8.9 11.7 5.9 -2.5 -7.7 1.4 17.8 23.0 13.9 18.4 25.3 12.6 2.3 2.7 2.3 .0 .4 .0 9.4 14.4 5.0 -7.2 -11.5 -3.4 -1.9 -3.0 -1.1 -1.2 -2.5 .0 4.7 2.5 6.2 2.3 1.4 5.4 2.4 .2 2.8 2.5 1.1 6.0 3.9 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.3 3.8 5.0 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.3 7.7 1.2 .8 .6 5.8 5.2 9.3 3.8 5.1 5.8 3.1 .3 2.8 7.6 2.2 4.9 .2 -.5 .9 1.4 .4 .4 .6 .7 -.4 .4 .4 .9 .2 -.1 .4 1.0 -.2 .2 .0 -.2 .6 -.1 .3 .0 .3 .1 -.3 .5 .2 .8 .2 .1 .8 .2 .2 .2 3.3 2.2 5.2 3.7 2.5 3.9 96.73 71.04 34.84 2.9 2.8 5.7 2.7 2.8 5.1 3.3 2.8 4.9 3.9 1.3 1.7 5.3 6.5 9.4 3.4 4.0 6.8 .4 .3 1.1 .4 .4 .5 .3 .9 1.6 -.2 -.5 -1.1 .8 .2 .2 -.1 .1 .1 4.0 3.3 4.5 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 95.48 69.79 33.59 2.8 2.7 5.4 2.8 3.0 5.5 3.1 2.6 4.4 4.2 1.6 2.4 5.1 6.3 9.0 2.6 2.9 4.6 .4 .3 1.1 .4 .4 .5 -.2 .2 .3 .2 .0 -.1 .9 .3 .4 -.1 .2 .3 4.0 3.3 4.5 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 92.21 66.52 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.4 4.3 1.6 4.7 5.8 2.7 3.1 .3 .2 .4 .4 -.1 .3 .2 .0 1.0 .3 -.1 .2 3.9 3.2 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 11.17 17.32 7.3 1.4 6.0 3.5 3.8 1.8 1.9 .8 9.2 6.5 5.9 4.2 1.2 .4 .4 .9 .9 .2 -.4 -.2 .4 .7 .1 .3 4.6 4.0 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Oct. p July Total industry Sept. r r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2013 average 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 11.07 4.37 6.70 6.45 .25 11.41 4.41 7.00 6.75 .25 11.18 4.20 6.98 6.71 .27 11.67 4.15 7.52 7.22 .29 12.19 4.44 7.75 7.44 .31 11.78 3.98 7.80 7.51 .29 11.74 4.44 7.30 7.01 .29 13.24 4.82 8.42 8.09 .33 11.88 4.31 7.57 7.27 .30 11.47 4.20 7.27 6.97 .30 11.07 3.94 7.13 6.83 .30 Memo Autos and light trucks 10.82 11.16 10.91 11.38 11.89 11.48 11.45 12.92 11.58 11.17 10.77 Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s website, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2007 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2013 proportion 2014 Feb. Mar. Apr. Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 102.3 103.1 103.2 103.7 104.0 104.3 104.1 105.0 104.9 52.70 26.78 5.88 3.01 .13 .78 1.97 20.90 15.62 9.00 .19 4.65 1.29 5.27 97.2 97.3 99.9 115.1 60.9 70.8 95.6 96.9 92.0 101.2 60.9 82.8 74.1 113.6 97.8 97.9 100.7 115.9 60.5 73.0 96.0 97.6 93.1 102.3 62.4 84.6 72.3 112.9 97.5 97.4 100.7 115.2 61.7 74.7 95.9 96.8 93.5 103.0 62.2 84.6 72.8 108.3 97.6 97.1 102.2 117.9 63.2 75.6 96.1 96.0 92.8 101.7 61.7 84.1 74.1 107.1 97.5 96.8 102.9 118.6 64.5 76.3 96.6 95.5 93.3 101.5 61.2 85.6 75.3 103.2 98.1 97.5 107.4 127.6 63.1 78.9 96.8 95.1 93.1 100.8 62.4 86.0 75.3 102.0 97.7 96.5 103.4 120.4 65.5 76.6 95.5 95.0 93.1 100.9 59.5 86.4 74.0 101.4 98.1 96.9 102.9 118.2 64.5 78.0 96.1 95.6 93.0 101.0 62.0 86.1 73.3 104.6 98.1 96.7 102.1 116.2 65.3 77.8 96.4 95.6 93.2 100.9 62.3 87.0 72.3 104.0 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 9.47 2.25 2.02 5.20 2.26 104.9 107.6 100.6 104.7 114.8 105.8 109.1 101.7 105.3 115.7 106.3 110.6 101.0 105.8 116.1 107.2 111.9 101.1 106.8 116.1 106.9 113.0 101.0 105.9 116.5 108.2 116.8 101.1 106.6 116.8 107.9 112.8 102.6 107.2 116.6 107.5 113.1 103.0 106.1 117.2 108.2 112.1 103.8 107.5 116.6 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.14 9.27 83.0 94.3 83.6 94.2 82.9 94.0 84.0 94.3 84.3 94.2 85.2 94.1 85.2 94.4 85.5 95.6 85.7 95.4 47.30 28.50 17.33 2.49 6.40 8.45 11.16 .41 1.88 5.68 18.81 108.7 102.5 112.1 96.9 145.8 95.6 89.4 73.3 80.3 90.3 118.9 109.9 103.1 112.9 97.8 146.5 96.2 89.8 78.8 80.6 90.6 121.0 110.4 103.4 113.3 97.8 146.6 96.9 90.0 78.9 82.2 90.5 121.8 111.3 104.1 114.8 99.6 149.3 97.7 89.7 76.4 81.0 90.6 123.1 112.3 104.8 116.0 100.9 149.2 99.5 89.8 77.7 81.5 90.8 124.4 112.2 105.3 116.7 105.3 149.3 99.4 90.1 79.5 80.7 91.7 123.3 112.3 105.1 116.1 102.2 149.9 98.9 90.2 78.2 81.1 92.2 124.1 113.6 105.7 116.7 101.8 150.9 99.6 90.8 80.1 81.2 93.0 126.5 113.4 105.9 117.0 102.3 151.0 99.9 91.0 79.9 81.2 93.4 125.5 321 327 331 332 333 334 74.32 71.79 37.96 .91 1.51 3.12 5.61 5.60 6.07 98.0 99.5 107.3 78.1 75.0 103.1 97.1 108.5 147.4 98.8 100.4 108.1 79.3 76.0 102.5 97.4 108.8 149.0 99.1 100.8 108.4 80.3 76.5 104.4 97.7 108.1 149.7 99.5 101.1 109.7 80.7 77.4 105.6 98.3 109.6 151.3 99.9 101.5 110.3 80.9 78.3 108.3 99.6 108.7 150.8 100.7 102.4 111.8 82.8 79.7 109.2 99.9 109.4 150.1 100.2 102.0 110.7 82.7 79.9 108.5 98.3 110.8 151.2 100.4 102.2 110.9 82.2 80.4 109.5 99.5 109.8 151.5 100.6 102.4 111.0 82.8 79.4 109.3 99.7 111.2 152.5 335 3361–3 1.81 4.52 90.1 110.1 90.8 110.5 90.0 110.7 91.2 113.3 91.9 113.3 91.7 123.9 92.3 115.1 92.0 112.9 91.6 111.6 3364–9 337 339 4.61 1.00 3.20 106.2 71.3 111.9 107.9 74.2 113.3 108.2 74.6 113.4 109.7 74.7 114.9 110.6 75.5 115.3 110.6 76.4 115.2 110.4 75.6 114.2 111.4 77.2 115.5 110.6 77.7 115.6 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 33.82 10.94 .66 .25 2.32 1.30 3.81 11.59 2.95 91.7 102.7 70.4 59.2 81.8 76.9 97.7 87.6 93.3 92.7 103.6 73.6 60.8 81.8 77.7 98.8 88.4 95.1 93.0 104.1 74.0 60.7 84.3 76.6 99.9 88.3 94.4 92.5 103.1 73.1 60.2 82.7 76.8 98.0 88.1 96.7 92.7 102.8 73.9 59.7 82.8 77.5 96.7 88.9 98.5 92.9 102.1 75.4 60.8 82.4 77.7 98.8 89.5 97.7 93.2 102.1 74.8 57.8 82.8 77.3 99.2 90.0 98.3 93.4 102.3 75.3 60.1 82.8 77.4 99.0 90.4 98.7 93.7 102.3 75.5 60.5 82.6 77.8 99.1 91.0 99.5 1133,5111 2.53 67.5 66.7 66.9 67.1 67.4 66.7 65.7 65.2 64.5 21 2211,2 2211 2212 15.88 9.81 8.52 1.28 123.0 107.0 105.4 118.1 125.1 106.5 104.3 121.8 127.7 101.0 99.9 108.4 129.0 101.3 100.1 109.1 130.8 99.3 98.7 103.4 130.6 96.4 95.1 104.6 131.2 97.1 96.2 102.9 133.2 101.2 100.7 104.1 132.1 100.5 100.4 100.7 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 9 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2007 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2013 proportion 2014 Feb. Mar. Apr. Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 102.3 103.1 103.2 103.7 104.0 104.3 104.1 105.0 104.9 27.74 5.27 2.92 .73 3.88 14.92 115.7 113.6 107.1 97.7 101.3 124.7 116.8 112.9 105.3 99.6 102.8 127.0 116.3 108.3 104.4 100.9 98.0 129.6 116.9 107.1 104.2 101.9 98.7 131.1 117.0 103.2 103.0 102.3 98.3 133.0 116.0 102.0 103.1 102.8 95.0 132.5 116.5 101.4 103.5 104.6 97.5 132.8 119.2 104.6 107.3 106.6 99.8 135.3 118.3 104.0 106.4 105.8 99.2 134.2 72.26 97.8 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.8 100.5 100.0 100.2 100.4 3341 3342 3.27 .35 .49 185.6 69.3 88.6 186.9 70.2 87.5 189.7 67.4 89.2 194.1 68.7 90.4 193.7 70.8 91.0 192.5 70.2 91.1 192.3 73.3 91.2 192.1 72.3 91.4 193.0 72.0 91.6 334412–9 2.42 294.6 297.6 304.1 311.7 309.4 307.1 304.9 304.9 306.7 68.99 94.3 95.0 95.2 95.5 96.0 96.8 96.3 96.5 96.7 4.52 2.22 2.00 110.1 117.2 105.2 110.5 117.1 105.9 110.7 117.4 106.2 113.3 120.5 108.6 113.3 121.0 108.6 123.9 138.4 114.0 115.1 122.5 110.2 112.9 118.8 109.0 111.6 115.8 109.0 64.47 18.91 8.20 4.13 6.05 24.90 93.2 90.9 107.3 82.9 85.3 93.6 94.0 91.9 108.5 83.5 85.8 94.1 94.2 92.3 108.9 82.8 85.8 94.3 94.4 91.9 109.8 83.9 86.2 94.6 94.9 92.5 109.3 84.3 86.6 95.5 95.1 92.4 109.8 85.1 86.4 95.7 95.1 92.2 110.4 85.1 86.7 95.7 95.5 92.3 110.1 85.5 86.9 96.4 95.7 92.5 111.0 85.6 87.0 96.7 96.73 71.04 34.84 99.7 94.5 100.4 100.6 95.3 101.2 100.6 95.6 101.3 101.0 95.9 102.5 101.4 96.3 103.0 101.7 97.1 104.7 101.5 96.6 103.5 102.3 96.8 103.7 102.2 97.0 103.8 95.48 69.79 33.59 101.9 97.2 106.7 102.7 98.1 107.6 102.8 98.4 107.9 103.2 98.7 109.1 103.6 99.1 109.7 103.4 99.3 110.0 103.6 99.3 109.9 104.6 99.6 110.4 104.5 99.9 110.7 92.21 66.52 99.2 93.6 100.1 94.4 100.1 94.6 100.4 94.8 100.8 95.2 100.7 95.5 100.9 95.5 101.8 95.8 101.8 96.0 11.17 17.32 116.4 94.0 117.3 94.5 117.7 94.7 119.1 95.1 119.5 96.0 120.6 96.1 120.1 96.0 120.6 96.7 120.8 97.0 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2012 2013 2014 Three months earlier 2012 2013 2014 Six months earlier 2012 2013 2014 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 62.8 55.1 36.2 62.8 62.2 63.1 46.5 50.6 67.0 67.3 51.6 50.0 51.3 54.5 58.7 57.1 62.2 53.2 52.2 50.6 59.0 43.6 63.5 48.1 53.5 57.4 57.4 53.2 53.8 67.3 58.7 62.2 53.5 63.8 67.6 49.4 71.9 63.5 55.1 63.0 55.4 60.3 59.9 53.8 68.6 53.8 51.6 66.3 62.8 56.1 61.2 56.7 55.1 65.1 51.9 64.1 60.6 48.1 58.7 62.2 41.7 61.2 60.9 61.9 66.3 56.4 67.0 58.3 57.4 72.9 63.8 59.0 64.7 65.1 65.4 65.3 67.6 63.1 66.3 57.7 62.5 61.4 56.7 59.6 62.5 57.4 72.1 55.8 56.7 67.6 59.6 57.4 61.5 53.2 66.3 56.7 66.2 62.2 64.1 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2013 proportion 19722013 ave. 199495 high 2009 low 2014 Q1 Q2r Q3r 2014 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 80.1 85.0 66.9 78.6 79.1 79.1 79.1 79.2 79.2 78.8 79.2 78.9 31–33 76.91 73.68 78.7 78.5 84.6 84.7 63.9 63.7 76.2 76.9 77.1 77.8 77.4 78.2 77.1 77.8 77.3 78.0 77.8 78.5 77.3 78.0 77.3 78.0 77.2 78.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 39.65 1.03 2.03 3.18 5.48 5.61 6.67 77.0 76.7 74.5 79.0 77.5 78.1 78.0 83.6 86.5 82.6 94.1 84.8 87.6 84.3 58.5 50.1 44.1 48.7 61.9 59.3 70.6 76.0 70.0 60.8 76.3 80.4 80.3 72.7 77.2 71.2 62.5 79.3 81.1 80.6 72.8 77.8 72.0 64.8 81.4 80.9 80.9 71.5 77.4 71.2 62.5 78.9 80.9 81.2 73.1 77.6 71.2 63.3 80.9 81.7 80.3 72.4 78.5 72.5 64.5 81.5 81.7 80.6 71.6 77.5 72.1 64.7 81.0 80.1 81.4 71.6 77.4 71.3 65.1 81.6 80.8 80.5 71.3 77.3 71.6 64.4 81.4 80.7 81.3 71.4 335 3361–3 1.72 4.76 82.6 75.0 92.5 87.8 66.0 35.1 83.6 77.4 84.1 80.4 84.6 83.6 84.3 81.0 84.7 80.9 84.4 88.4 84.8 82.0 84.4 80.3 83.9 79.3 3364–9 337 339 4.77 1.09 3.30 73.4 76.5 76.0 70.3 82.6 80.5 72.0 57.2 68.1 75.3 74.4 74.4 77.1 76.7 75.2 77.8 78.1 74.8 77.3 76.5 75.5 77.8 77.3 75.5 77.7 78.2 75.2 77.5 77.2 74.4 78.1 78.9 75.0 77.5 79.3 74.9 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.03 10.68 .75 .27 2.19 1.50 3.62 11.97 3.04 80.7 81.0 79.6 77.5 86.7 80.7 85.5 77.6 82.0 86.0 85.4 91.8 87.2 92.6 85.0 91.1 82.0 93.2 69.1 75.1 53.4 56.9 72.4 59.8 75.8 65.2 58.5 77.9 80.4 69.0 75.2 81.3 71.4 84.0 75.0 76.9 78.5 80.6 70.7 76.0 82.7 71.5 84.3 75.4 78.4 78.6 79.3 72.4 75.6 82.7 72.2 84.8 76.4 78.9 78.2 80.5 70.1 76.0 82.2 71.3 84.1 75.1 78.6 78.4 80.1 71.0 75.5 82.5 72.0 82.9 75.7 79.7 78.5 79.4 72.6 77.1 82.2 72.4 84.7 76.1 78.8 78.6 79.3 72.1 73.4 82.8 72.1 85.0 76.4 78.9 78.7 79.3 72.7 76.4 83.0 72.3 84.8 76.7 78.9 78.9 79.1 72.9 77.0 83.1 72.7 84.8 77.1 79.2 1133,5111 3.24 81.7 83.2 68.6 60.5 60.6 59.6 60.6 60.9 60.3 59.4 59.1 58.5 21 2211,2 13.48 9.61 87.3 86.1 88.5 93.3 78.8 78.5 87.9 84.1 89.9 78.9 89.5 76.9 89.8 79.5 90.4 77.9 89.5 75.5 89.1 76.0 89.8 79.1 88.3 78.5 3341 3342 3.77 .42 .53 77.9 78.2 76.7 86.3 87.7 84.1 72.2 83.5 77.3 70.8 64.7 74.7 72.1 64.7 75.5 70.4 68.3 75.9 72.7 64.4 75.6 72.0 66.6 76.0 71.0 66.4 75.9 70.4 69.6 75.9 69.8 69.0 75.9 69.5 68.9 76.0 334412–9 2.82 79.7 90.8 63.3 71.0 72.6 69.6 73.4 72.0 70.7 69.5 68.7 68.4 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 96.23 73.15 80.3 78.7 84.9 84.5 66.7 63.5 78.9 76.5 79.4 77.4 79.4 77.8 79.4 77.4 79.5 77.6 79.5 78.2 79.2 77.7 79.6 77.7 79.3 77.7 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 17.66 44.85 37.49 86.3 80.8 77.1 89.6 87.7 80.6 76.8 64.2 66.8 86.1 77.7 76.1 87.5 77.3 77.0 87.4 77.3 77.1 87.4 77.4 77.1 87.8 77.5 77.0 87.3 77.1 77.6 87.1 77.0 76.9 87.7 77.7 76.8 86.6 77.6 76.8 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 11 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Average annual rate 19721980198979 88 94 Item Total industry Manufacturing 19952014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Monthly rate 2014 Oct. Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate 3.1 1.4 2.6 1.9 3.1 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 .3 2.2 2.6 2.5 .5 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 .2 .1 2.1 -.6 1.8 1.2 1.9 5.9 1.8 4.8 1.3 4.0 .4 9.2 1.0 7.5 .9 9.0 1.1 10.0 1.1 10.3 1.0 .8 .1 17.3 15.7 20.2 25.9 19.0 4.7 8.6 6.5 8.5 9.8 9.8 .8 2.6 1.3 1.6 1.0 -.6 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 .1 1.6 3.0 3.9 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 2.4 19.6 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries 2.3 .7 4.2 Mining Utilities 1.9 3.3 1 .4 1.3 3.3 -.5 2.6 2.7 1.1 2.7 2.3 4.6 1.0 .5 3.5 2.0 2.6 3.1 .7 2.9 7.3 1.9 2.3 5.9 1.5 2.6 7.1 1.9 2.4 8.0 2.2 2.2 8.3 2.1 2.2 .7 .2 .2 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2009 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2009 2013 2014 Q1 Q2r Q3r 2014 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 3,212.1 3,626.4 3,715.1 3,743.8 3,764.6 3,747.5 3,732.3 3,785.5 3,747.2 3,761.2 3,759.8 2,410.8 1,811.4 381.7 225.1 156.5 1,429.8 2,746.7 1,984.3 523.5 346.9 176.6 1,474.1 2,820.8 2,043.4 538.3 359.1 179.3 1,518.6 2,848.9 2,054.3 555.5 372.8 182.9 1,515.4 2,852.7 2,049.6 574.0 389.6 184.9 1,496.5 2,851.1 2,054.6 557.6 375.1 182.8 1,514.1 2,837.1 2,041.8 561.2 377.2 184.4 1,499.1 2,880.8 2,070.5 595.1 409.9 186.2 1,499.7 2,836.5 2,036.2 566.3 383.4 183.4 1,489.7 2,840.8 2,042.2 560.5 375.6 185.1 1,500.0 2,841.7 2,039.6 553.8 368.5 185.4 1,502.7 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 599.4 583.2 477.2 106.0 769.0 745.1 627.3 118.2 783.3 759.0 641.1 118.4 802.0 777.0 657.9 119.8 811.7 785.7 666.0 120.3 804.1 779.0 660.0 119.7 803.3 778.4 658.9 120.1 818.9 793.2 673.7 120.3 809.1 783.3 663.9 120.1 807.0 780.5 660.5 120.6 811.0 784.8 665.5 120.0 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 801.3 221.8 579.5 233.3 879.4 260.6 619.4 241.7 893.9 264.6 629.9 246.5 894.5 266.6 628.6 240.8 911.6 272.4 639.9 247.8 896.0 267.5 629.2 241.1 894.8 268.6 627.0 238.2 904.3 272.2 632.9 242.9 910.4 272.2 639.0 246.2 920.1 273.0 647.8 254.1 917.7 273.9 644.5 250.6 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2013 gross value1 2011 2012 2,191.3 1,907.4 1,418.8 674.7 4.6 2.7 1.3 2.9 4.3 3.7 .4 2.1 Annual rate 2013 2014 Q1 3.6 3.3 3.7 2.6 1.1 5.4 2.5 3.1 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2009 dollars. 12 Monthly rate Q2 r Q3 2014 Mayr June 8.6 1.4 -1.3 11.9 4.0 3.4 1.3 5.9 .3 1.1 -.8 .3 .2 .2 -.7 .9 r r r r July Aug. 1.9 -.2 .8 .2 -1.6 .1 .1 .3 Sept. r -.1 1.2 .7 1.0 Oct. p .0 .1 -.1 -.5 Oct. ’13 to Oct. ’14 3.0 4.0 1.6 5.7 Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 .5 .4 .2 -.7 .7 .4 .0 -.1 1.6 .9 .0 1.0 .1 -.1 .7 .3 .5 .0 .9 .3 -.4 .6 .3 .7 .0 .2 .7 .4 .8 .9 .3 .2 -.4 -.2 -.5 -.1 .6 1.3 .6 .2 .5 .4 .4 .6 .8 .8 .8 -.1 -.1 .4 .4 .6 .2 .9 .1 .5 1.0 .4 .6 -.5 3.6 5.1 4.4 2.7 7.2 .8 7.5 1.5 8.5 3.0 1.6 5.3 3.9 5.0 4.3 6.2 8.4 3.4 5.5 2.8 3.3 5.3 4.7 4.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .2 .5 .5 .0 -.7 1.2 .1 .5 .3 -.6 .7 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .1 .3 .2 .7 -.3 .6 .6 .8 .2 -.7 .5 -.7 -.2 .1 -.7 .9 -.4 .6 -.1 -.5 1.0 2.1 .4 -.3 -.2 .9 -.3 -.4 .4 -.4 .9 .8 1.3 -.3 -.5 .9 .0 .5 .0 -.5 .3 .4 .8 -.3 .0 7.9 4.5 4.3 4.3 -5.6 6.3 2.5 3.8 5.3 -5.5 9.8 2.8 3.8 -.4 -5.7 10.5 5.6 7.5 -1.2 -4.5 7.2 5.8 4.3 4.0 -3.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .7 .3 .5 .1 .0 .3 .5 .6 .0 .8 -.2 -.5 -.1 .3 .5 -.8 .4 .1 .4 .4 .0 .8 .2 -.1 1.0 .0 -.8 .4 .4 -.2 .6 .8 -.2 .0 .0 -.3 .0 .2 .3 .1 .6 .1 -2.0 -.2 -.3 .1 1.0 1.3 .0 .5 .8 .2 1.0 -.1 -.5 -.1 .7 .6 1.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 5.7 3.8 6.5 -3.1 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.1 -1.7 1.6 -.2 3.4 5.7 3.4 .8 .2 1.2 2.3 3.2 2.2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.5 -.2 -2.2 1.2 .0 1.1 -.3 -.7 .3 -.6 .1 -.3 -1.5 .8 1.0 .7 -.7 -.8 .4 -.5 .0 -.5 -1.1 1.6 .3 .0 -.2 -.4 .2 .2 .0 -.5 1.0 .6 .6 .1 -1.5 1.0 .3 .5 .4 -4.2 .7 .3 .1 -.5 .8 .4 -.3 .5 .6 -1.3 .4 .2 .1 .0 -2.8 .3 .8 .4 3.7 -1.4 -20.0 8.3 2.5 4.9 -5.3 -10.8 8.7 1.2 1.1 -12.1 5.2 6.5 5.2 .7 -16.0 6.3 1.5 3.9 2.5 -3.4 -11.3 5.7 3.3 2012 2013 2014 .9 .1 -.2 .4 .6 .9 -.4 .4 .8 .8 -.2 .1 .3 .1 .5 .1 .2 .3 .6 -.2 .3 -.6 .6 -.2 .3 .7 .8 -.1 .1 -.1 1.0 .6 .1 .2 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 1.9 5.7 1.6 2.5 3.3 2.4 4.9 3.8 2.9 IP (2007=100) 2012 2013 2014 96.0 98.4 101.3 96.4 99.0 102.3 96.0 99.5 103.1 96.8 99.3 103.2 97.1 99.4 103.7 97.2 99.6 104.0 97.7 99.4 104.3 97.1 100.0 104.1 97.4 100.7 105.0 97.3 100.8 104.9 98.3 101.4 98.4 101.6 96.1 99.0 102.2 97.0 99.4 103.6 97.4 100.1 104.5 98.0 101.3 97.1 99.9 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2012 2013 2014 124.2 127.2 129.7 124.5 127.3 130.0 124.8 127.5 130.4 125.1 127.7 130.7 125.4 127.9 131.0 125.7 128.0 131.4 125.9 128.2 131.7 126.2 128.5 132.1 126.4 128.7 132.5 126.6 128.9 132.8 126.8 129.2 127.0 129.4 124.5 127.3 130.0 125.4 127.9 131.0 126.2 128.5 132.1 126.8 129.2 125.7 128.2 Utilization (percent) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.3 81.3 82.5 84.8 82.5 79.8 81.5 82.3 84.4 83.4 80.3 81.3 83.0 84.3 83.0 80.7 81.4 83.2 83.9 83.3 80.8 81.0 83.4 83.9 83.6 80.6 81.1 83.7 83.9 83.9 81.1 81.2 83.6 83.2 83.3 80.6 81.1 83.8 84.0 83.5 80.6 81.3 83.8 84.0 83.6 81.0 81.8 84.2 83.6 83.2 81.2 82.0 84.4 83.4 83.5 81.1 82.3 85.0 83.4 83.6 79.8 81.3 82.6 84.5 83.0 80.7 81.2 83.4 83.9 83.6 80.7 81.2 83.7 83.8 83.5 81.1 82.1 84.5 83.5 83.4 80.6 81.4 83.6 83.9 83.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.3 84.4 81.8 81.9 79.1 83.9 83.9 81.8 81.9 78.3 84.0 83.4 81.6 81.9 77.9 83.6 83.2 81.5 82.2 77.5 83.7 83.2 81.8 82.1 76.7 83.6 82.2 81.4 81.9 76.0 83.9 81.4 81.6 81.6 75.4 84.2 82.6 81.6 81.0 75.1 84.4 82.0 81.0 81.1 74.7 84.6 82.3 81.8 80.6 74.2 84.8 81.8 81.9 80.3 73.6 84.5 81.8 82.2 79.9 73.5 83.7 83.9 81.7 81.9 78.4 83.7 82.8 81.5 82.1 76.7 84.2 82.0 81.4 81.2 75.1 84.7 81.9 81.9 80.3 73.8 84.1 82.7 81.7 81.4 76.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.9 75.8 77.0 79.8 80.2 73.8 76.0 77.4 80.3 80.2 74.3 75.9 77.1 80.1 80.3 74.6 75.3 77.4 80.1 80.4 74.8 75.4 78.0 80.2 80.2 75.5 75.4 77.4 80.4 80.4 75.3 75.9 78.0 80.1 80.3 75.3 75.7 78.1 80.1 80.4 75.4 76.2 78.1 78.4 80.1 75.2 76.2 78.9 79.3 79.9 75.6 76.8 79.0 79.9 79.7 75.2 76.8 79.5 80.3 80.3 74.0 75.9 77.2 80.1 80.2 75.0 75.4 77.6 80.2 80.4 75.3 75.9 78.1 79.5 80.3 75.3 76.6 79.1 79.8 80.0 74.9 75.9 78.0 79.9 80.2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 79.7 80.7 70.1 71.0 76.0 80.4 80.5 69.5 71.4 75.6 80.4 80.3 68.5 72.1 76.3 80.8 79.8 67.9 72.5 75.8 80.7 79.4 67.2 73.8 76.0 80.6 79.3 66.9 74.1 76.1 80.5 78.9 67.6 74.7 76.4 80.5 77.7 68.3 75.0 76.6 80.8 74.3 68.9 75.3 76.6 80.4 74.9 69.3 75.1 76.8 80.8 73.9 69.7 75.3 76.7 80.8 71.7 70.0 76.0 76.8 80.2 80.5 69.4 71.5 75.9 80.7 79.5 67.3 73.5 76.0 80.6 77.0 68.3 75.0 76.5 80.7 73.5 69.7 75.5 76.8 80.5 77.6 68.7 73.8 76.3 2012 2013 2014 77.3 77.4 78.1 77.4 77.8 78.6 76.9 78.0 79.1 77.4 77.8 79.0 77.4 77.8 79.1 77.3 77.8 79.2 77.6 77.5 79.2 77.0 77.8 78.8 77.0 78.3 79.2 76.9 78.2 78.9 77.5 78.5 77.5 78.5 77.2 77.7 78.6 77.4 77.8 79.1 77.2 77.9 79.1 77.3 78.4 77.3 77.9 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 1.0 .2 .2 -.8 .9 .2 .1 -.2 1.6 1.0 -.2 1.3 .2 -.2 .5 .5 .8 -.1 1.1 .6 -.1 .7 .1 .7 .2 -.2 .3 .5 1.0 .9 .2 .4 -.6 .2 -.4 -.2 .8 1.2 .6 .1 .6 .5 .9 .8 .7 .9 1.0 -.1 -.2 .4 .4 .8 .1 .8 -.1 .5 1.1 .4 .8 .5 4.5 4.9 4.6 1.8 8.2 1.3 9.6 1.0 9.7 4.1 .7 6.2 3.3 7.4 3.2 7.0 10.1 4.3 5.7 3.6 3.5 5.9 5.2 4.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .8 .3 .1 -.7 1.4 .1 .8 .2 -.6 1.1 -.1 -.1 .7 -.3 -.2 .5 .3 .7 -.3 .8 .5 1.0 -.1 -.8 .7 -.8 -.3 .2 -.7 .8 -.4 .4 .1 -.5 1.2 2.5 .6 -.7 -.5 .9 -.3 -.4 .4 -.2 .9 1.0 1.5 -.3 -.6 1.1 .2 .6 -.3 -.3 .4 .5 .7 -.6 .3 9.4 6.1 4.9 4.7 -6.5 7.4 1.9 4.3 5.1 -5.7 11.0 3.1 3.4 -.5 -6.2 11.4 7.8 8.9 -2.8 -4.2 8.4 6.6 5.0 4.2 -4.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .5 .5 .0 .8 .8 .0 .1 .6 .8 -.2 .8 .2 -.2 -.4 -.1 .2 -.9 .4 .3 .5 .6 .1 .8 .4 -.5 1.1 .4 -.7 .2 .3 -.3 .4 .9 -.2 -.2 .2 -.5 .4 .3 .6 .1 .8 .0 -1.1 .0 -.4 .1 1.0 1.5 -.4 .4 1.0 -.1 .8 .0 -.5 -.3 .6 .1 1.5 3.5 1.8 2.1 6.4 3.9 5.9 -2.1 3.0 2.4 .9 3.1 2.4 3.7 -.4 .9 -.4 3.8 5.4 5.9 1.5 .3 1.3 2.8 4.0 2.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.5 -.4 -2.9 1.1 .2 .4 -.6 -.3 -.1 .0 .8 -.3 -1.8 1.3 .7 .7 -1.1 -.7 .9 -.6 -.1 -.5 -1.1 1.5 .2 .3 -.6 -.3 .0 .1 .2 -1.1 1.4 .8 .8 -.4 -1.2 1.0 .1 .3 .5 -3.4 .8 .1 .4 -.4 -.6 .2 .1 .5 .5 -2.4 1.0 .2 -.1 .1 -3.4 -.1 .4 .7 4.0 -2.6 -23.9 7.0 2.9 5.8 -7.5 -10.9 11.4 .0 .9 -13.4 7.0 5.7 5.4 .7 -21.6 6.9 1.6 4.3 2.7 -4.7 -13.6 6.1 3.4 2012 2013 2014 1.0 -.2 -1.0 .6 .6 1.3 -.3 .1 .8 .8 -.2 .3 -.2 .3 .4 .4 .3 .4 .4 -.4 .8 -.5 .7 -.5 .2 .3 .2 -.4 .4 .2 1.3 .3 .7 .2 7.3 4.4 1.4 3.0 1.3 7.0 1.2 1.9 3.9 2.5 4.2 4.1 2.6 IP (2007=100) 2012 2013 2014 92.9 95.4 96.8 93.5 95.9 98.0 93.2 96.0 98.8 93.9 95.8 99.1 93.7 96.1 99.5 94.0 96.4 99.9 94.4 96.0 100.7 94.0 96.7 100.2 94.1 96.9 100.4 93.7 97.3 100.6 94.9 97.6 95.6 97.7 93.2 95.8 97.9 93.9 96.1 99.5 94.2 96.5 100.5 94.7 97.5 94.0 96.5 123.2 125.8 128.1 123.4 126.0 128.4 123.6 126.2 128.6 123.9 126.3 128.8 124.1 126.5 129.0 124.4 126.7 129.3 124.6 126.9 129.5 124.8 127.1 129.8 125.0 127.3 130.0 125.2 127.5 130.2 125.4 127.7 125.6 127.9 123.4 126.0 128.4 124.1 126.5 129.0 124.8 127.1 129.8 125.4 127.7 124.5 126.8 Utilization (percent) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.2 80.4 81.3 84.4 81.3 78.7 80.4 81.2 83.9 82.1 79.4 80.1 82.0 83.7 81.5 79.6 80.4 82.5 83.3 82.0 79.9 80.2 82.8 83.1 82.2 79.9 80.0 82.7 83.1 82.6 80.4 80.1 82.8 82.3 82.3 79.8 79.8 83.1 82.8 82.4 79.7 80.2 83.2 83.2 82.6 80.0 80.8 83.7 82.7 82.0 80.1 81.0 84.0 82.4 82.2 79.8 81.3 84.6 82.3 82.4 78.8 80.3 81.5 84.0 81.6 79.8 80.2 82.7 83.2 82.3 80.0 80.0 83.0 82.8 82.4 80.0 81.0 84.1 82.5 82.2 79.6 80.4 82.8 83.1 82.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.1 83.5 80.6 80.6 76.6 82.7 83.0 80.8 80.4 75.9 83.1 82.3 80.4 80.6 75.5 82.5 82.1 80.3 80.8 75.1 82.7 81.9 80.7 80.4 74.3 82.7 80.7 80.1 80.2 73.6 82.8 79.9 80.1 80.0 73.1 83.2 81.3 80.2 79.2 72.6 83.3 80.6 79.6 79.2 72.3 83.4 81.0 80.5 78.6 71.7 83.8 80.7 80.6 78.1 71.4 83.5 80.7 80.8 77.4 71.6 82.6 82.9 80.6 80.5 76.0 82.6 81.5 80.3 80.5 74.3 83.1 80.6 80.0 79.5 72.7 83.6 80.8 80.6 78.0 71.6 83.0 81.5 80.4 79.6 73.6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 71.9 73.7 74.8 78.2 79.0 71.8 73.8 75.3 78.7 78.7 72.3 73.9 75.3 78.2 78.5 72.5 73.2 75.6 78.3 78.8 72.8 73.3 76.2 78.4 78.3 73.7 73.6 75.7 78.4 78.5 73.4 73.9 76.4 78.0 78.2 73.5 73.5 76.7 78.1 78.5 73.6 74.1 76.6 77.1 78.4 73.3 74.2 77.4 78.1 78.0 73.7 74.9 77.3 78.6 77.8 73.3 74.8 77.7 78.5 78.8 72.0 73.8 75.1 78.3 78.7 73.0 73.4 75.8 78.3 78.5 73.5 73.8 76.6 77.7 78.3 73.4 74.6 77.4 78.4 78.2 73.0 73.9 76.2 78.2 78.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 78.2 78.3 66.1 68.2 73.2 78.4 77.8 66.0 68.3 73.3 78.8 77.6 65.0 69.3 73.8 79.2 76.8 64.6 70.0 73.3 78.9 76.5 64.0 71.2 73.4 79.0 76.2 63.9 71.3 73.5 78.9 75.4 64.9 72.0 74.0 78.5 74.6 65.7 72.2 74.2 78.7 72.1 66.3 72.4 74.3 78.3 71.8 66.5 72.5 74.6 78.6 70.2 67.3 72.7 74.4 78.6 67.9 67.4 73.0 74.8 78.5 77.9 65.7 68.6 73.4 79.0 76.5 64.2 70.8 73.4 78.7 74.0 65.6 72.2 74.2 78.5 70.0 67.1 72.7 74.6 78.7 74.6 65.6 71.1 73.9 2012 2013 2014 75.5 75.8 75.5 75.8 76.1 76.4 75.4 76.1 76.8 75.8 75.8 77.0 75.5 75.9 77.1 75.6 76.1 77.3 75.8 75.6 77.8 75.3 76.1 77.3 75.3 76.2 77.3 74.8 76.3 77.2 75.7 76.4 76.1 76.4 75.5 76.0 76.2 75.6 75.9 77.1 75.4 76.0 77.4 75.5 76.4 75.5 76.1 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2012 2013 2014 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.8 .5 .4 .1 -1.0 .7 .3 .0 -.2 1.3 .8 -.1 .9 -.1 -.3 .6 .3 .3 -.3 .8 .3 -.4 .4 .1 .6 -.2 .2 .6 .2 .6 .8 .3 .0 -.6 -.5 -.6 -.1 .4 1.1 .4 .1 .4 .1 .1 .4 .6 .7 .6 -.4 -.4 .3 .3 .4 .1 .7 .0 .5 .9 .1 .5 -2.0 3.1 4.4 2.8 -.5 6.1 .2 5.4 -1.2 6.6 1.9 1.3 3.2 1.5 2.0 3.0 5.3 5.7 .4 2.9 1.9 2.5 4.0 2.5 1.7 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .0 .3 .2 -.3 -.7 .9 .0 .1 .0 -.5 .4 .0 -.1 .1 -.3 -.2 .2 -.1 .4 -.2 .3 .6 .6 -.1 -.6 .2 -.9 -.5 -.1 -.5 .6 -.7 .3 -.4 -.3 .7 1.9 .4 -.5 -.1 .6 -.6 -.5 .3 -.4 .7 .5 1.2 -.4 -.5 .6 -.3 .2 -.2 -.5 .1 .1 .5 -.5 -.1 5.1 2.0 .7 .4 -5.9 2.5 .7 .3 1.6 -4.5 6.4 -.3 1.0 -3.1 -4.4 7.5 2.3 5.5 -2.7 -4.5 4.2 3.0 1.1 1.0 -4.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .7 .6 .2 .4 .1 -.1 .1 .5 .6 .0 .8 -.3 -.6 -.2 .2 .4 -.9 .4 .0 .4 .5 -.1 .8 .1 -.2 .9 -.1 -.8 .4 .3 -.3 .4 .8 -.3 .0 -.1 -.4 .0 .0 .2 .1 .5 .0 -2.2 -.3 -.3 .0 1.0 1.2 -.1 .5 .7 .2 1.0 -.2 -.6 -.1 .6 .5 1.0 2.6 1.5 2.1 4.8 3.4 6.4 -4.7 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.8 .9 2.1 -3.0 .7 -.8 2.4 5.2 2.1 .1 .3 .2 1.7 2.5 1.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.5 -.3 -2.2 1.1 .0 1.0 -.4 -.7 .1 -.6 -.1 -.4 -1.6 .6 1.1 .6 -.8 -.9 .3 -.5 .1 -.6 -1.1 1.6 .3 .1 -.2 -.4 .2 .2 .0 -.4 1.0 .6 .7 .1 -1.6 1.0 .2 .4 .3 -4.3 .7 .2 .1 -.7 1.1 .3 -.4 .6 .4 -1.1 .3 .1 .1 -.1 -2.7 .3 .8 .4 3.0 -2.5 -19.7 7.2 1.8 4.0 -6.4 -11.7 7.9 1.1 1.1 -12.3 5.0 6.2 5.0 -1.0 -14.9 5.8 .7 3.8 1.8 -4.2 -11.3 5.0 2.9 2012 2013 2014 .9 .0 -.3 .3 .7 .9 -.5 .4 .8 .8 -.2 .0 .3 .1 .4 .0 .2 .4 .6 -.2 .3 -.6 .5 -.2 .2 .8 .8 -.2 .1 -.1 1.0 .6 .1 .2 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.0 1.6 5.3 1.3 2.3 3.4 1.8 5.0 3.5 2.6 94.1 96.1 98.8 94.4 96.7 99.7 94.0 97.1 100.6 94.7 96.9 100.6 95.0 97.0 101.0 95.0 97.2 101.4 95.5 97.0 101.7 94.9 97.5 101.5 95.1 98.2 102.3 95.0 98.3 102.2 95.9 98.9 96.0 99.1 94.2 96.6 99.7 94.9 97.0 101.0 95.2 97.6 101.9 95.6 98.8 95.0 97.5 121.4 123.7 126.1 121.6 123.8 126.3 121.8 124.0 126.6 122.0 124.2 126.9 122.2 124.3 127.2 122.4 124.5 127.6 122.6 124.7 127.9 122.8 124.9 128.2 123.0 125.1 128.5 123.2 125.3 128.9 123.4 125.6 123.5 125.8 121.6 123.8 126.4 122.2 124.3 127.2 122.8 124.9 128.2 123.4 125.6 122.5 124.7 Utilization (percent) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.2 81.4 82.6 84.9 82.3 79.7 81.6 82.5 84.5 83.2 80.2 81.4 83.1 84.3 82.8 80.6 81.6 83.2 83.9 83.3 80.8 81.1 83.4 83.8 83.6 80.5 81.2 83.8 83.8 84.0 81.1 81.4 83.6 83.2 83.4 80.6 81.2 83.8 83.9 83.6 80.6 81.4 83.7 83.8 83.8 81.0 81.9 84.1 83.3 83.3 81.2 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.7 81.1 82.4 84.9 83.2 83.9 79.7 81.5 82.7 84.6 82.8 80.6 81.3 83.5 83.8 83.7 80.8 81.3 83.7 83.6 83.6 81.1 82.1 84.4 83.3 83.6 80.6 81.6 83.6 83.8 83.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.6 84.5 81.8 81.4 78.7 84.1 84.1 81.7 81.3 78.2 84.2 83.8 81.5 81.3 77.9 83.7 83.6 81.2 81.6 77.7 83.7 83.8 81.5 81.4 77.1 83.6 82.7 80.9 81.2 76.6 83.9 81.8 81.0 80.8 76.2 84.1 83.1 81.1 80.3 76.0 84.3 82.4 80.6 80.4 75.7 84.6 82.6 81.5 80.0 75.2 84.8 82.1 81.5 79.8 74.8 84.6 81.9 81.8 79.3 74.6 84.0 84.1 81.7 81.4 78.2 83.7 83.4 81.2 81.4 77.1 84.1 82.5 80.9 80.5 76.0 84.7 82.2 81.6 79.7 74.9 84.1 83.0 81.3 80.7 76.5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 75.1 77.0 77.4 80.3 80.4 74.9 77.1 77.9 80.7 80.3 75.5 76.9 77.5 80.6 80.3 75.8 76.3 77.8 80.6 80.5 76.1 76.3 78.5 80.6 80.2 76.8 76.2 77.8 80.8 80.3 76.6 76.6 78.5 80.5 80.2 76.5 76.3 78.5 80.5 80.3 76.6 76.8 78.6 78.6 79.9 76.4 76.7 79.3 79.4 79.7 76.8 77.3 79.5 80.1 79.5 76.4 77.2 80.0 80.4 80.2 75.2 77.0 77.6 80.5 80.3 76.2 76.3 78.0 80.7 80.3 76.6 76.6 78.5 79.8 80.1 76.5 77.1 79.6 80.0 79.8 76.1 76.7 78.4 80.3 80.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 79.7 80.8 70.0 70.9 75.7 80.4 80.5 69.4 71.1 75.3 80.3 80.3 68.3 71.8 76.0 80.7 79.6 67.6 72.2 75.7 80.7 79.2 66.9 73.5 75.9 80.8 79.0 66.7 73.8 76.0 80.8 78.6 67.4 74.4 76.4 80.9 77.3 68.2 74.8 76.6 81.2 73.9 68.8 75.0 76.6 80.7 74.6 69.1 74.9 76.9 81.0 73.7 69.5 75.0 76.9 81.0 71.7 69.9 75.7 77.0 80.1 80.5 69.2 71.3 75.7 80.8 79.3 67.1 73.2 75.8 81.0 76.6 68.1 74.7 76.6 80.9 73.3 69.5 75.2 76.9 80.7 77.4 68.5 73.6 76.2 2012 2013 2014 77.6 77.7 78.4 77.7 78.1 78.9 77.2 78.3 79.4 77.6 78.0 79.3 77.7 78.0 79.4 77.6 78.0 79.5 77.9 77.8 79.5 77.3 78.1 79.2 77.3 78.5 79.6 77.1 78.4 79.3 77.8 78.7 77.7 78.8 77.5 78.0 78.9 77.6 78.0 79.4 77.5 78.1 79.4 77.5 78.6 77.5 78.2 IP (2007=100) 2012 2013 2014 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2012 2013 2014 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.9 1.1 .1 .1 -1.2 .9 .1 .1 -.4 1.3 1.0 -.3 1.1 -.1 -.4 .4 .5 .6 -.4 1.0 .5 -.1 .5 -.1 .6 .1 -.2 .2 .3 .8 .9 .2 .2 -.8 -.1 -.5 -.3 .6 .9 .3 -.1 .5 .2 .5 .6 .5 .8 .7 -.4 -.5 .3 .3 .6 -.1 .7 -.2 .5 .9 .1 .7 -1.2 4.0 4.0 2.7 -2.0 7.0 .5 7.1 -2.3 7.4 2.8 .2 3.8 .3 4.0 1.5 6.0 7.0 .7 2.6 2.6 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.1 .6 -.1 -.3 -.6 1.1 -.1 .4 -.2 -.5 .8 -.3 -.4 .3 -.3 -.6 .2 -.1 .4 -.1 .5 .4 .8 -.6 -.7 .4 -1.2 -.7 .0 -.6 .5 -.8 .0 -.2 -.2 .9 2.3 .6 -1.0 -.5 .5 -.7 -.5 .3 -.2 .7 .7 1.4 -.4 -.7 .8 -.1 .3 -.6 -.2 .1 .2 .4 -.8 .2 6.2 3.3 .8 .2 -7.0 2.9 -.3 .3 .7 -4.5 7.0 -.6 .2 -3.8 -4.6 7.9 4.1 6.7 -4.7 -4.2 4.9 3.4 1.4 .7 -4.8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .4 -.1 .6 .8 -.2 -.1 .7 .7 -.3 .8 .1 -.2 -.5 -.1 .2 -1.0 .4 .2 .5 .6 -.1 .8 .3 -.6 1.1 .2 -.8 .1 .2 -.4 .2 1.0 -.4 -.3 .1 -.7 .4 .2 .5 .1 .7 -.1 -1.4 -.1 -.4 -.1 1.0 1.5 -.4 .4 .9 -.1 .7 .0 -.6 -.3 .6 .0 1.5 3.2 .5 1.6 5.2 3.3 5.7 -4.0 3.3 1.3 .1 2.5 .2 3.7 -2.0 -.2 -1.1 2.6 4.9 4.4 .6 .4 .0 2.0 3.1 1.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.6 -.5 -2.9 1.0 .1 .3 -.8 -.3 -.3 .0 .6 -.4 -2.0 1.2 .7 .5 -1.2 -.9 .9 -.7 .0 -.6 -1.2 1.5 .2 .5 -.6 -.3 .0 .1 .2 -1.1 1.4 .8 .9 -.5 -1.3 1.0 .0 .2 .3 -3.5 .8 .0 .4 -.6 -.4 .1 .0 .6 .3 -2.1 1.0 .0 -.1 .0 -3.2 -.2 .2 .7 3.2 -4.3 -23.8 5.4 2.0 4.7 -9.2 -12.1 10.4 -.1 1.0 -13.7 6.8 5.3 5.2 -1.6 -20.5 6.2 .6 4.3 1.8 -5.8 -13.8 5.1 2.8 2012 2013 2014 1.1 -.3 -1.1 .5 .7 1.3 -.4 .1 .8 .7 -.3 .3 -.3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 -.5 .9 -.5 .7 -.5 .1 .3 .2 -.6 .3 .1 1.3 .3 .7 .2 7.0 4.6 1.3 1.9 .8 6.5 .8 1.6 4.0 1.7 4.3 3.7 2.3 IP (2007=100) 2012 2013 2014 90.3 92.1 93.3 90.8 92.7 94.5 90.4 92.8 95.3 91.0 92.5 95.6 90.8 92.7 95.9 91.0 93.0 96.3 91.4 92.6 97.1 90.9 93.2 96.6 91.0 93.5 96.8 90.5 93.8 97.0 91.7 94.1 92.4 94.3 90.5 92.5 94.4 90.9 92.7 95.9 91.1 93.1 96.9 91.5 94.1 91.0 93.1 119.3 121.1 123.2 119.4 121.3 123.3 119.5 121.4 123.5 119.7 121.6 123.7 119.8 121.7 123.9 120.0 121.9 124.1 120.1 122.1 124.2 120.3 122.2 124.4 120.5 122.4 124.6 120.6 122.6 124.8 120.8 122.8 120.9 123.0 119.4 121.3 123.3 119.8 121.7 123.9 120.3 122.2 124.4 120.8 122.8 120.1 122.0 Utilization (percent) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.0 80.5 81.3 84.4 80.9 78.6 80.5 81.2 83.9 81.7 79.3 80.2 82.1 83.7 81.2 79.5 80.5 82.4 83.2 81.9 79.8 80.3 82.7 82.9 82.2 79.8 80.0 82.7 83.0 82.6 80.3 80.2 82.8 82.1 82.4 79.8 79.9 83.1 82.6 82.4 79.6 80.2 83.1 82.9 82.7 79.9 80.8 83.5 82.4 82.0 80.0 81.0 83.8 82.1 82.4 79.8 81.3 84.5 82.0 82.7 78.6 80.4 81.5 84.0 81.3 79.7 80.3 82.6 83.0 82.2 79.9 80.1 83.0 82.5 82.5 79.9 81.0 83.9 82.2 82.3 79.5 80.4 82.8 82.9 82.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.3 83.5 80.5 79.9 76.0 82.9 83.1 80.6 79.6 75.5 83.3 82.6 80.0 79.7 75.2 82.5 82.4 79.8 79.9 75.1 82.6 82.4 80.2 79.4 74.5 82.6 81.2 79.4 79.2 74.0 82.6 80.2 79.3 79.0 73.8 83.0 81.8 79.6 78.1 73.4 83.1 80.9 79.0 78.2 73.2 83.3 81.2 80.0 77.8 72.7 83.7 80.9 80.1 77.3 72.5 83.4 80.8 80.2 76.5 72.6 82.8 83.1 80.4 79.7 75.6 82.5 82.0 79.8 79.5 74.5 82.9 81.0 79.3 78.4 73.5 83.5 80.9 80.1 77.2 72.6 82.9 81.7 79.9 78.7 74.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.1 74.9 75.2 78.6 79.1 73.0 74.9 75.7 79.1 78.7 73.5 75.0 75.6 78.6 78.5 73.7 74.2 76.0 78.7 78.7 74.1 74.2 76.6 78.8 78.2 75.0 74.4 76.1 78.8 78.3 74.7 74.6 76.8 78.4 77.9 74.8 74.1 77.1 78.4 78.2 74.9 74.7 77.1 77.2 78.0 74.6 74.6 77.8 78.2 77.6 74.9 75.4 77.7 78.7 77.5 74.6 75.2 78.2 78.6 78.6 73.2 74.9 75.5 78.8 78.7 74.3 74.3 76.2 78.8 78.4 74.8 74.4 77.0 78.0 78.0 74.7 75.1 77.9 78.5 77.9 74.2 74.7 76.7 78.5 78.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 78.0 78.3 65.8 67.9 72.7 78.2 77.7 65.7 67.8 72.7 78.6 77.4 64.5 68.8 73.4 78.9 76.4 64.1 69.5 72.9 78.9 76.0 63.5 70.7 73.1 79.2 75.6 63.5 70.9 73.2 79.3 74.8 64.5 71.6 73.9 78.8 74.0 65.3 71.8 74.0 79.1 71.4 66.0 71.9 74.3 78.5 71.2 66.2 72.1 74.7 78.7 69.8 67.0 72.2 74.6 78.7 67.7 67.1 72.5 75.0 78.3 77.8 65.3 68.2 72.9 79.0 76.0 63.7 70.4 73.1 79.1 73.4 65.3 71.7 74.1 78.7 69.6 66.8 72.3 74.7 78.7 74.2 65.3 70.6 73.7 2012 2013 2014 75.7 76.1 75.8 76.1 76.5 76.7 75.6 76.4 77.2 76.1 76.1 77.3 75.7 76.1 77.4 75.9 76.3 77.6 76.1 75.8 78.2 75.6 76.3 77.7 75.5 76.4 77.7 75.0 76.5 77.7 75.9 76.6 76.4 76.7 75.8 76.3 76.5 75.9 76.2 77.4 75.7 76.2 77.8 75.8 76.6 75.8 76.3 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2012 2013 2014 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 A shown below. An output index for month m is denoted by Im for aggregate A and Im for each of its components. The monthly price measure in the formula (pm ) is interpolated from an annual series of value added divided by the average annual IP index. E XPLANATORY N OTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available from the Data Download Program on the Board’s website. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. A Im A Im−1 = Im p m Im−1 pm Im pm−1 × Im−1 pm−1 The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 6 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 6/10 percentage point (0.06 x 10% = 0.6%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s website provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweightssa.txt). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utility establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories; the reference period for the index is 2007. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definition of manufacturing plus those industries— newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing plus logging—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 312 individual series based on the 2007 NAICS codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 72 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 94 percent in the third month, 95 percent in the fourth month, 97 percent in the fifth month, and 97 percent in the sixth month. Data availability by data type in early 2014 is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2011) Month of estimate Source Data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production and unit values or sales) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable direct measures of product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Physical product 32 44 54 55 57 58 Production-worker hours 40 40 40 40 40 40 IP data received 72 84 94 95 97 97 IP data estimated 28 16 6 5 3 3 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first row of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (32 percent out of a total of 58 percent). Of the 32 percent, about two-thirds (19 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the fourth estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the third estimate of the last month of a quarter, the fourth estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fifth estimate of the first month of a quarter. Seasonal Adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through January 2013; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least December 2012. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or business cycles when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see the Federal Reserve Bulletins of February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 17 0.27 percent during the 1987–2013 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2013 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of the change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the Census Bureau’s annual Survey of Plant Capacity (the predecessor to the QSPC) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the QSPC. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Perspective. Over the 1972–2013 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 80.1 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 78.7 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES Coverage. The capacity indexes cover all facilities located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. Capacity indexes are constructed for 89 detailed industries (71 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the NAICS definition of manufacturing plus those industries— newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing plus logging—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-technology industries and manufacturing excluding high-technology industries. References. The release for the annual revision that was published on March 28, 2014, is available on the Board’s website (www.federal reserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). A summary of the annual revision that incorporated back to 1972 production and capacity indexes reclassified according to the North American Industry Classification System is available in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp. 151–176. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 25 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity (QSPC); these industries account for a bit less than 70 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 5 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Meth/MethCap.htm). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005, March 2006, May 2007, August 2008, August 2009) or in online staff studies (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2010/industrial10.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2012/industrial12.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2013/industrial13.pdf). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2014: January 17, February 14, March 17, April 16, May 15, June 16, July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 17, and December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating the annual capacity aggregate with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. 2015: January 16, February 18, March 16, April 15, May 15, June 15, July 15, August 14, September 15, October 16, November 17, and December 16. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and 18
