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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) 2018 Historical and Annual Revision For release at 12:00 noon (EDT) March 23, 2018 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2018 Annual Revision The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.1 On net, the revisions to total IP for recent years were negative: For the 2015–17 period, the current estimates show rates of change that are 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point lower in each year.2 Total IP is still reported to have moved up about 22 1/2 percent from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014. Subsequently, the index declined in 2015, edged down in 2016, and increased in 2017. The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2016 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates. Revisions to capacity for total industry were mixed. Capacity growth was revised up about 1/2 percentage point for 2016, but revisions to other recent years were negative. Capacity for total industry is estimated to have expanded less than 1 percent in 2015, 2016, and 2017, but it is expected to increase about 2 percent in 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2017, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 77.0 percent, about 1/2 percentage point below its previous estimate and about 3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average. The utilization rate for 2016 is also lower than the previous estimate. This revision incorporated newly available annual data on output and prices. The IP indexes for manufacturing were updated with data from the 2016 ASM (which also includes revised data for 2015), while the IP indexes for publishing reflect new data for 2016 and revised data for 2015 from the Census Bureau’s Service Annual Survey. For logging, the IP indexes were updated with 2016 data from the U.S. Forest Service. In addition, the indexes for metallic and nonmetallic minerals were updated with revised annual data for 2016 from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Data on prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were also incorporated into most of the manufacturing indexes. The monthly estimates of production have been updated to include late-arriving or revised quarterly or monthly indicator data, including information from the BLS’s benchmark revisions to the Current Employment Statistics. The monthly IP estimates also now reflect recalculations of seasonal factors. The revised estimates of capacity and capacity utilization incorporated data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization (QSPC) for the fourth quarter of 2017, along with new data on capacity from the USGS, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and other organizations. The revised estimates also include new data on capital spending from the ASM for 2016 and revised data for 2015. 1 The revision affected rates of change for IP from 1972 forward. When necessary to maintain consistency with any revisions to the data for 1972 and subsequent years, the levels of the production for the years before 1972 were multiplied by a constant. However, the rates of change in IP for the years before 1972 were not revised. Utilization rates and capacity growth rates were revised minimally between 1968 and 1971, but unchanged before then. 2 Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified. 1 RESULTS OF THE REVISION Industrial Production Manufacturing output is now estimated to have declined about 1 1/2 percent in 2015, to have been little changed in 2016, and then to have advanced about 2 percent in 2017. These rates of change are lower than their previously reported values, especially for 2015, which was revised down 1.0 percentage point. The cumulative effect of these revisions leaves manufacturing IP in February 2018 about 5 1/2 percent below its pre-recession peak. The rates of change for mining have been revised up for 2014 and 2015 and revised down for 2016 and 2017. The contour for mining output shows an especially large gain in 2014 followed by sizable drops in 2015 and 2016; output increased strongly in 2017. The rates of change for utilities output are revised down only slightly for each year from 2013 to 2016, while the gain in the index for 2017 is now reported to be 0.8 percentage point lower than previously published. Production by Industry Group The output of durable goods manufacturers is now reported to have fallen in 2015, moved a little lower in 2016, and advanced in 2017; output was previously reported to have risen in 2016, and the rates of change for 2015 and 2017 were also revised down. Within durables, the revisions for the 2015–17 period were widespread across industries. Revisions to the rates of change for nondurables were smaller and more mixed. The revised estimates show the output of nondurables increasing about 1/2 percent in both 2015 and 2016 and rising 2.2 percent in 2017. The output index for industries in scope for manufacturing IP that are not part of manufacturing under the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)—that is, logging and publishing—fell sharply in 2014, 2016, and 2017, and was relatively little changed in other recent years. The revisions to this index were mixed, moving the rate of change higher in 2013, 2015, and 2016 and lower in 2014 and 2017. Production by Market Group The index for consumer goods has increased in each of the past few years, though the gains in 2014, 2015, and 2017 are now smaller than reported earlier. The rates of change for business equipment were revised down significantly for 2015 and 2016, but the gains were revised up for 2017. The revisions for construction supplies and business supplies were smaller. In addition, the index for materials is now estimated to have fallen more rapidly in 2015 and 2016 and risen more slowly in 2017, with downward revisions for both the energy and non-energy components. Capacity Total industrial capacity expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017, and it is expected to increase about 2 percent in 2018. The growth rate for 2016 is now noticeably higher than the value reported earlier, but the gains in other years are now reported to have been smaller. Manufacturing capacity contracted slightly in 2014 and 2015, but it increased between 1/2 and 1 1/2 percent each year thereafter. For 2016 in particular, the gain in manufacturing capacity is larger than stated previously, reflecting a more-rapid increase in capacity for nondurables industries as well as a less-steep decline in capacity for logging and publishing (“other manufacturing” industries). Capacity at mines declined in 2016 and 2017, but it is expected to jump about 5 percent in 2018. As compared with previous reports, the growth of capacity at mines was significantly higher in 2016 and significantly lower in 2017. Capacity at utilities has grown in recent years; the gain for 2017 was 2 revised up more than 1 percent, but revisions to other years were negative. Capacity Utilization Capacity utilization for total industry declined in 2015 and 2016 but rose in 2017.3 The decrease in 2015 resulted from a large drop in the rate for mining and from smaller reductions in the rates for both manufacturing and utilities. Compared with earlier estimates, capacity utilization for total industry is now reported to have been somewhat higher for 2014, little changed in 2015, and lower for 2016 and 2017. Utilization at manufacturers fell in 2016 and rose in 2017; the current readings for these years are each between about 1/2 and 1 percentage point lower than previously reported, as capacity revised down by less than output. For the fourth quarter of 2017, the utilization rate at manufacturers is estimated to have been more than 3 percentage points below its long-run average. Within manufacturing, there were sizable downward revisions to the utilization rates for both durables and nondurables for 2016 and 2017. The utilization rate for durable manufacturing was above its long-run average in 2014, but it fell back in 2015. By the fourth quarter of 2017, the utilization rate for durables was more than 2 percentage points below its long-run average. Of the 11 major categories of durables, about half recorded operating rates below their long-run averages. The utilization rate for nondurable manufacturing has been below its long-run average for several years. As of the fourth quarter of 2017, the operating rates for all nondurable manufacturing industry groups were around or below their industry-specific long-run averages. Capacity utilization rates for mining declined sharply in 2015 and fell further in 2016, before rising sharply in 2017. The declines in 2015 and 2016 were largely due to decreased output in the oil and gas drilling and servicing sector. Relative to its previously published rates, utilization at mines for 2017 is about 2 percentage points higher; revisions to other recent years were smaller. In 2017, the utilization rate for mining was 1/2 percentage point above its long run average of 87.0 percent; it had last been above this average in 2014. The operating rates for utilities have been well below their long-run average for the past several years; the revisions to this index were positive except for 2017. TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE REVISION The IP indexes represent the level of real output relative to a base year. At the monthly frequency, movements of the indexes are based on indicators that are derived using industry-specific data from a variety of government and private sources. The monthly production indexes, however, are anchored to annual benchmarks that are less timely but typically based on more comprehensive data. In most cases, the annual benchmark is nominal gross output reported by the Census Bureau deflated by a suitable price index. Annual revisions to the IP and capacity measures involve (1) incorporating new annual benchmark data on output, prices, and value-added proportions; (2) incorporating new monthly or quarterly data that were revised or that arrived too late to be included in the regular six-month reporting window for monthly IP; (3) updating seasonal adjustment factors; and (4) updating the methods used to construct the indexes. The current revision also introduces a new structure for the published indexes for electricity generation. 3 Unless otherwise noted, rates of capacity utilization are reported for the fourth quarter of the reference year. 3 Annual Benchmark Data on Output, Prices, and Value-Added Proportions Output The annual benchmark output indexes for IP are measures of real gross output at the six-digit NAICS level. The Census Bureau provides annual figures for value added and the cost of materials for manufacturing industries, which can be summed to obtain nominal gross output. The benchmark indexes for this revision incorporated revised information for 2015 and new information for 2016 from the ASM. New annual data were also incorporated into several other indexes. The benchmark indexes for metallic and nonmetallic mineral mining were updated with revised 2016 data from the USGS, and the benchmark indexes for logging and publishing were advanced through 2016 based on data from the U.S. Forest Service and the U.S. Census Bureau. Prices To obtain individual benchmarks of real gross output, the measures of nominal gross output are deflated by annual price deflators. In general, the benchmark industry price deflators consist of price indexes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) through 2011 that are extended through 2016 with the related producer prices indexes (PPIs) from the BLS.4 However, for a few selected industries, the annual price deflators are constructed by the Federal Reserve.5 Value-Added Proportions (Weights for Aggregation) The IP system is organized as a hierarchical structure where the individual production indexes are combined using a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula to construct broader measures of production. The weights that are used to combine individual IP measures into more aggregate measures are based on the value added from the industry, calculated as gross output less cost of materials. For IP indexes that are defined at the six-digit (or more aggregate) NAICS level, the value-added weights are derived from either the Economic Census or the ASM. For IP indexes that cover only part of a six-digit NAICS industry, the aggregation weights were constructed by allocating value added (as defined by the Census Bureau) for a six-digit industry across the various components of IP that compose that industry. Data from the Economic Census and the ASM on shipments of different types of products within a six-digit NAICS industry were used to determine the share of an industry’s value added that was assigned to each component IP index. The Federal Reserve derives estimates of value added for the electric and gas utility industries from annual revenue and expense data issued by other organizations. For electric utilities, the measures of value added incorporate data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy and from the Edison Electric Institute. For gas utilities, the value-added estimates incorporate data from the American Gas Association. The weights for aggregation for mining industries are derived from value-added data from the Economic Census. Figures for value added for mining industries in the years between the quinquennial Economic Censuses are estimated based on both output and price changes for the industry. The weights for aggregation expressed as value added per unit were estimated with data on producer prices for the period after 2016. 4 Overall, at the industry level, the BEA and PPI measures are quite similar, as the BEA used weighted product-level PPIs to derive its industry-level shipments deflator. selected industries, the Federal Reserve constructs price indexes from alternative sources. These industries include communications equipment (NAICS 3342), computer storage devices (NAICS 334112), semiconductors (NAICS 334413), and pharmaceuticals (NAICS 325412). Updated price indexes for data storage devices and for selected components of communications equipment will be available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17. 5 For 4 Revised Quarterly and Monthly Data This revision incorporated source data on production, shipments, and inventories that became available or were revised after the regular six-month reporting window for monthly IP was closed. These data were released with too great of a lag to be included with monthly IP estimates but were available for inclusion in the annual revision. The revised IP indexes include information from the QSPC for 2017 and from other industry reports. Revised Seasonal Factors Seasonal factors for production-worker hours—which adjust for timing, holiday, and monthly seasonal patterns—were updated with data through January 2018. The updated factors for the physical product series, which include adjustments for holiday and workday patterns, used data through December 2017 where available. Seasonal factors for unit motor vehicle assemblies have been updated, and projections through June 2019 are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/mvsf.htm. These factors are based on production data through January 2018 and were revised back to January 2006. The seasonal factors explicitly incorporate the holiday schedule for the vehicle assembly lines specified in the latest collective bargaining agreements with domestic manufacturers. Methodological Changes to Individual Production and Capacity Indexes New Structure for Electricity Generation This revision introduces more detail to the published indexes for electricity generation, Previously, separate indexes were issued for hydroelectric power (NAICS 221111), for nuclear power (NAICS 221113), and for generation both from fossil fuels and from any other technology (NAICS 221112, 221114, 221115, 221116, 221117, and 221118). With this revision, the last index is broken into separate indexes to be published for fossil fuels and for the other technologies, which are primarily based on renewable energy sources. In addition, a new aggregate that combines hydroelectric power with the index for renewables and other technologies will be published. New Benchmark Index for Drilling Oil and Gas Wells (NAICS 213111) With this revision, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on footage drilled form the basis of a new annual benchmark for the index for drilling oil and gas wells (NAICS 213111) from 1991 forward; this new benchmark also relies on data from Baker Hughes on the number of onshore and offshore drilling rigs in operation. Previously, the index for this industry did not have an annual benchmark—the only source data for the IP index were the weighted onshore and offshore rig counts from Baker Hughes. The monthly IP index continues to depend solely on the Baker Hughes weighted rig counts, as the final quarterly measures of footage drilled from the API are available too late for inclusion in IP. The IP indexes will incorporate the footage drilled data as part of the annual revision process. The new annual benchmark for drilling oil and gas wells is constructed as the weighted sum of footage drilled by offshore and by onshore drilling rigs, where the weight for each type of rig reflects its relative value. Historically, offshore rigs have been substantially more valuable than onshore rigs (by a factor of four in the standard calculations for IP). The innovation in this revision is to update the weights to additionally reflect each type of rig’s value in terms of footage per rig; the new formula weights footage drilled by offshore rigs slightly more than five times more heavily than footage drilled by onshore rigs. The construction of the new annual benchmark for drilling oil and gas wells uses detailed information on 5 overall footage drilled and on footage by offshore and by onshore rigs. The API publishes the reported offshore and onshore footage from survey respondents; however, for recent quarters these subtotals are incomplete as some drilling companies may not immediately report values to the API. The API makes adjustments for non-response and does publish quarterly estimates for overall (offshore plus onshore) footage drilled. As the API issues subsequent quarterly reports, it also issues revisions to earlier reports. The first step in the construction of the new benchmark is to compute annual estimates for the total offshore and total onshore footage drilled. To do so, the raw quarterly subtotals based on survey reports are converted to an annual frequency. Then, a linear regression is run that uses the API’s most recent estimate of overall footage drilled as the dependent variable and uses recent vintages of the separate offshore and onshore subtotals as independent variables. Estimates of total offshore and total onshore footage drilled are computed by applying the relevant regression coefficients to the underlying data; each of these estimates is extended back to 1972 by applying the appropriate historical rates of change in the Baker Hughes count for offshore and onshore rigs. The estimated totals for offshore and onshore footage are divided by the number of rigs of each type to obtain the average footage per rig; this average is calculated for the 2000–09 period. Next, the weight for each type of rig (four for offshore, one for onshore) is divided by the relevant average footage value, and terms are simplified algebraically to obtain the adjusted weights. As noted above, the adjustments result in footage drilled by offshore rigs being weighted slightly more than five times more heavily than footage drilled by onshore rigs. Incorporation of Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity into Monthly Estimates for IP Indexes Based on Production Worker Hours For the IP indexes based on production worker hours, this revision incorporates information from the QSPC into the adjustment factor that aligns the monthly data with the annual benchmark indicator. The standard adjustment factor is calculated in two steps—first, by creating a historical ratio of the annual benchmark indicator to the annual average of the monthly (or quarterly) raw data, and second, by projecting this ratio ahead for years when benchmark data are not yet available. The annual adjustment factor is converted to a monthly frequency for use in the monthly IP indexes. For the IP indexes based on production worker hours, the adjustment factors are effectively measures of productivity. This revision adapts the standard adjustment factor formula for indexes based on production worker hours by including data from the QSPC in the calculation. For an IP index based on production worker hours, the new annual adjustment factor is constructed as the ratio of the benchmark indicator to the annual average of the production worker hours index, as was done in the past. Likewise, the annual adjustment factor is forecast past the end of the benchmark data as in previous annual revisions, based on a time series model and the QSPC utilization rates when available. Previously, however, the annual adjustment factor was interpolated to a monthly frequency using a procedure that attempted to make the resulting monthly series as smooth as possible. With this revision, the resulting monthly adjustment factors will take on some of the contour of the utilization rates from the QSPC if the annual averages of the QSPC rates are helpful in forecasting the annual adjustment factors.6 At this time, QSPC rates are only available through the fourth quarter of 2017. The annual adjustment factors are projected after that period using time-series models, and estimates are made of the QSPC rates implied by those projections. As the actual QSPC rates become available for 2018, the monthly adjustment factors will be modified to reflect the new information. 6 A regression model of the log of the annual adjustment factor is estimated using the log of the ratio of the QSPC rates over production worker hours as an independent variable. The coefficient for the QSPC variable is constrained to be between 0.0 and 0.5 so that the production worker hours are always at least as important as the QSPC in estimating the IP index. 6 NAICS Conversion of Capacity Estimation With this annual revision, industry-level data for capital expenditures, capital stocks, and capital input used in the estimation of industial capacity have been converted to a 2012 NAICS basis. Estimates of industrial capacity are based on regression models that relate end-of-year capacity indexes to economic determinants of annual capacity growth. One determinant of capacity growth used in these regression models is capital input—defined as the flow of capital services from the capital stock—which is constructed using industry- and asset-level capital expenditures information. Previously, these variables had been constructed on the basis of earlier NAICS systems. Introduction of Additional Detail for Communications Equipment Prices In the future, the Federal Reserve will publish new detail for communications equipment prices. Previously, the Federal Reserve released quarterly and annual price indexes for four product classes that composed a subset of the primary products of the communications equipment industry (NAICS 3342). The forthcoming release will include 25 annual price indexes that cover the full range of output in the communications equipment industry: indexes for 19 primary products plus indexes for secondary products and for miscellaneous receipts for each of the three component 6-digit industries. The annual price indexes are constructed from Federal Reserve research using private data, published price indexes from government organizations, and independent research by outside economists. The forthcoming release will also include annual price indexes for each of the three 6-digit industries (NAICS 334210, NAICS 334220, and NAICS 334290) within communications equipment. In addition, the forthcoming release will include annual estimates of nominal production corresponding to the 25 newly published price indexes. The nominal production estimates are derived from Census Bureau data combined with private information on product market size, as discussed in Byrne and Corrado (2015).7 The nominal estimates are used to weight the individual product price indexes to the six-digit industry level. The Federal Reserve uses these six-digit industry price indexes to deflate nominal output in the construction of the benchmark indicators of real output. A more detailed explanation of the communications equipment prices will be available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17 technical qa.htm. Data Availability and Publication Changes Files containing the revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17, as are updated data for the annual revision and for all of the regularly issued series on IP, capacity, and capacity utilization. Other changes are listed on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17 revision series.htm. A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. 7 David M. Byrne and Carol A. Corrado (2015), “Prices for Communications Equipment: Rewriting the Record,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015–069 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2015/files/2015069pap.pdf. 7 1. Total industrial production, capacity, and utilization Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Revised Earlier 160 140 120 100 Capacity 90 80 70 Production 60 50 45 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percent of capacity 35 90 86 82 Utilization 78 74 70 66 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 8 62 2. Manufacturing industrial production, capacity, and utilization Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Revised Earlier 160 140 120 Capacity 100 80 Production 60 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percent of capacity 20 90 86 82 78 Utilization 74 70 66 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Notes: Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, defition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing-that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 9 62 3. Industrial production of selected industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 110 Excluding high-technology industries 100 90 80 70 65 60 Total IP 55 50 45 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Industrial production 2010 2015 40 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 120 110 100 Non-Energy 90 80 Energy 70 60 55 50 45 40 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Industrial production 2005 2010 2015 35 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 140 120 100 80 60 Motor Vehicles and Parts 40 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 3344), computers (NAICS 3341), and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 10 4. Consumer goods Total Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Revised Earlier 120 110 100 90 80 Detail: 2015 to present 110 70 105 60 50 100 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2016 2017 2000 Components of consumer goods 2018 2005 2010 2015 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Revised durable Revised nondurable Earlier 40 135 115 95 75 Detail: 2015 to present 125 120 115 55 110 105 100 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2016 2000 2017 2005 2018 2010 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 11 95 2015 35 5. Equipment Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Total 130 110 90 Revised Earlier 70 Detail: 2015 to present 50 105 100 30 95 90 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2016 2017 2005 2018 85 2010 2015 10 Note: Includes business equipment, defense and space equipment, oil and gas well drilling, and manufactured homes. Business equipment Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 130 110 90 70 Detail: 2015 to present 105 50 100 30 95 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Defense and space equipment 2016 2017 2005 2018 2010 90 2015 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 10 110 90 70 Detail: 2015 to present 95 90 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2016 2005 2017 2010 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 12 2018 50 85 2015 30 6. Nonindustrial supplies Total Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Revised Earlier 140 120 100 Detail: 2015 to present 110 80 105 60 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2016 2000 2017 2005 Construction supplies 2018 2010 100 2015 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 40 150 130 110 Detail: 2015 to present 90 115 110 70 105 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2016 2017 2000 Business supplies 2018 2005 2010 2015 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 50 130 110 90 Detail: 2015 to present 105 104 70 103 102 50 101 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2016 2005 2017 2010 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 13 2018 100 2015 30 7. Industrial materials Total Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Revised Earlier 120 90 Detail: 2015 to present 115 70 110 50 105 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2016 2017 2005 Energy materials 2018 2010 100 2015 30 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 120 100 80 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Non-energy materials 2010 2015 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 60 110 90 Detail: 2015 to present 106 70 104 102 50 100 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2016 2005 2017 2018 2010 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 14 98 2015 30 8. Capacity utilization by stage of process Crude Processing Percent of capacity 100 Revised Earlier 95 90 85 80 75 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Primary and semifinished processing 2010 2015 70 Percent of capacity 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Finished processing 2010 2015 60 Percent of capacity 90 85 80 75 70 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 15 2010 2015 65 Table 1A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Total Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual1 IP (percent change) 1988 1989 1990 1991 .0 .3 -.7 -.4 .4 -.4 1.0 -.7 .2 .2 .5 -.5 .6 .1 -.2 .2 -.1 -.7 .2 1.0 .3 .0 .3 .9 .0 -.9 -.1 .1 .4 .9 .3 .1 -.3 -.4 .1 .9 .5 -.1 -.8 -.2 .2 .3 -1.2 -.1 .5 .6 -.6 -.4 3.7 1.8 2.7 -7.3 3.5 -1.4 3.0 2.4 1.5 -2.4 1.7 5.7 2.9 1.7 -6.1 1.0 5.2 .9 1.0 -1.5 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 .4 .4 .2 -.7 .7 .4 .0 -.1 1.6 .8 -.1 1.0 .1 -.1 .8 .3 .6 -.1 .9 .3 -.3 .5 .3 .7 .0 .2 .6 .3 .8 .9 .3 .2 -.4 -.1 -.5 -.1 .6 1.3 .6 .2 .5 .4 .4 .7 .8 .8 .8 -.1 -.1 .4 .4 .6 .2 .9 .1 .5 1.0 .4 .7 -.4 3.6 5.0 4.2 2.7 7.3 .9 7.5 1.3 8.9 3.1 1.6 5.2 3.7 5.3 4.3 6.2 8.6 3.5 5.7 2.9 3.3 5.3 4.6 4.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .5 .5 .0 -.6 1.2 .1 .5 .3 -.6 .7 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .0 .4 .3 .7 -.3 .6 .6 .7 .2 -.6 .5 -.6 -.2 .1 -.6 .8 -.3 .6 -.1 -.6 1.0 2.1 .4 -.3 -.1 .9 -.2 -.4 .4 -.4 .9 .8 1.3 -.3 -.4 .9 -.1 .5 .0 -.5 .3 .4 .8 -.3 .0 7.9 4.6 4.5 4.1 -5.1 5.9 2.7 3.9 5.0 -5.0 9.5 3.0 3.6 -.4 -5.4 10.5 5.9 7.3 -.9 -4.1 7.2 5.8 4.4 3.9 -3.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .6 .3 .5 .1 .0 .3 .6 .7 .0 .8 -.2 -.5 -.1 .2 .4 -.7 .4 .2 .4 .4 .0 .8 .1 -.1 1.0 .2 -.8 .4 .4 -.2 .4 .8 -.3 .0 .0 -.2 .1 .3 .4 .1 .6 .1 -1.9 -.2 -.3 .1 .9 1.3 -.1 .5 .8 .2 1.0 -.1 -.5 -.1 .7 .6 1.1 3.0 2.3 2.8 5.9 3.8 6.3 -2.7 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.3 -1.8 1.5 -.1 4.0 5.8 3.9 .9 .4 1.3 2.7 3.3 2.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.5 -.3 -2.4 1.2 -.1 1.0 -.3 -.7 .4 -.4 .2 -.2 -1.6 .7 1.0 .7 -.8 -.8 .4 -.3 .0 -.6 -1.0 1.4 .2 .0 -.2 -.4 .1 .3 .0 -.5 1.1 .4 .5 .2 -1.5 1.1 .3 .6 .4 -4.3 .8 .2 -.1 -.4 1.0 .3 -.3 .7 .6 -1.3 .4 .0 -.1 .0 -2.9 .3 .9 .5 3.6 -1.4 -20.7 8.1 2.3 5.0 -5.8 -10.9 8.0 1.6 1.0 -12.6 6.2 5.3 4.7 1.2 -16.0 6.5 1.3 4.1 2.5 -3.5 -11.5 5.5 3.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .6 .0 -.5 -.6 .7 .3 .5 .9 -.4 -.7 -.5 .4 1.0 -.3 -.8 .8 -.1 .1 -.5 .2 .2 .1 .3 -.5 -.1 .0 .2 .3 -.4 .3 .3 -.5 .1 .5 .2 -.4 .7 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 .5 .3 -.4 -.1 .2 -.1 .0 -.4 .1 .5 .3 .8 -.6 -.2 .3 .3 -.1 -.5 .9 4.0 3.3 3.0 -3.2 -1.9 2.6 1.7 5.7 -5.0 -2.1 .1 1.2 2.1 -.3 1.1 2.1 3.0 2.7 -4.7 .7 3.0 2.0 3.1 -1.0 -1.9 2017 2018 -.2 -.2 -.4 .9 .6 1.0 .0 .1 -.1 -.4 .0 1.6 .5 .4 1.0 5.0 -1.5 7.7 1.6 IP (2012=100) 1988 1989 1990 1991 62.1 64.0 63.4 62.9 62.4 63.7 64.1 62.5 62.5 63.9 64.4 62.1 62.9 63.9 64.3 62.3 62.8 63.5 64.4 62.9 63.0 63.5 64.6 63.4 63.0 62.9 64.5 63.5 63.3 63.5 64.7 63.6 63.1 63.3 64.8 64.1 63.4 63.2 64.3 64.0 63.5 63.5 63.6 63.9 63.8 63.8 63.2 63.7 62.4 63.9 63.9 62.5 62.9 63.6 64.4 62.9 63.1 63.3 64.7 63.7 63.6 63.5 63.7 63.9 63.0 63.6 64.2 63.2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 63.3 66.6 68.8 73.4 74.7 63.8 66.9 68.8 73.3 75.8 64.3 66.8 69.5 73.4 75.8 64.8 67.0 69.9 73.4 76.5 65.0 66.8 70.2 73.6 77.0 65.0 66.9 70.7 73.9 77.7 65.6 67.1 70.8 73.6 77.6 65.3 67.0 71.2 74.5 78.0 65.4 67.3 71.5 74.8 78.5 65.9 67.9 72.1 74.7 78.5 66.2 68.1 72.5 74.9 79.2 66.3 68.5 73.3 75.2 79.7 63.8 66.7 69.0 73.4 75.4 65.0 66.9 70.3 73.6 77.0 65.5 67.1 71.2 74.3 78.0 66.1 68.2 72.6 74.9 79.1 65.1 67.2 70.8 74.0 77.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 79.8 86.7 89.9 94.2 94.6 80.8 86.8 90.3 94.4 94.0 81.3 86.8 90.5 94.8 93.7 81.4 87.1 90.7 95.5 93.5 81.8 87.7 91.3 95.6 92.9 82.2 87.1 91.2 95.7 92.3 82.8 86.8 91.8 95.6 91.8 83.7 88.6 92.2 95.3 91.7 84.5 88.5 91.8 95.7 91.3 85.2 89.2 93.0 95.4 90.9 85.9 89.1 93.4 95.4 90.5 86.2 89.4 94.2 95.2 90.5 80.6 86.7 90.2 94.5 94.1 81.8 87.3 91.1 95.6 92.9 83.7 88.0 91.9 95.5 91.6 85.8 89.2 93.5 95.3 90.6 83.0 87.8 91.7 95.2 92.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 91.1 93.6 95.1 98.8 101.1 91.1 93.9 95.7 99.5 101.1 91.8 93.7 95.2 99.3 101.3 92.2 93.1 95.6 99.5 101.7 92.6 93.1 96.4 99.6 101.6 93.5 93.3 95.6 100.0 102.0 93.2 93.7 96.3 99.7 101.9 93.2 93.5 96.4 99.9 102.3 93.4 94.1 96.5 98.1 102.1 93.1 94.2 97.4 99.3 102.1 93.6 94.9 97.6 100.3 102.0 93.1 94.9 98.3 100.9 103.0 91.3 93.8 95.3 99.2 101.1 92.7 93.1 95.9 99.7 101.7 93.3 93.7 96.4 99.2 102.1 93.2 94.7 97.8 100.2 102.3 92.6 93.8 96.4 99.6 101.8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 102.5 105.1 91.0 91.7 95.9 103.5 104.7 90.4 92.0 95.5 103.8 104.5 89.0 92.6 96.5 104.5 103.7 88.3 93.0 96.1 104.5 103.1 87.4 94.3 96.3 104.6 102.8 87.1 94.4 96.6 104.5 102.3 88.0 94.8 97.1 104.7 100.7 89.0 95.1 97.7 105.1 96.4 89.7 95.4 97.6 104.7 97.3 90.0 95.1 98.3 105.3 96.1 90.4 95.1 98.2 105.4 93.3 90.6 96.0 98.8 103.3 104.8 90.2 92.1 96.0 104.5 103.2 87.6 93.9 96.4 104.8 99.8 88.9 95.1 97.5 105.1 95.5 90.3 95.4 98.4 104.4 100.8 89.2 94.1 97.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 99.4 100.9 102.7 105.9 103.0 99.6 101.4 103.6 105.4 102.3 99.2 101.8 104.6 105.1 101.5 99.9 101.7 104.7 104.6 101.7 100.1 101.8 105.1 104.1 101.6 100.0 101.9 105.4 103.7 101.9 100.3 101.4 105.6 104.2 102.1 99.9 102.2 105.5 104.1 102.1 99.9 102.7 105.8 103.7 101.9 100.1 102.5 105.8 103.4 102.1 100.6 102.9 106.7 102.7 101.8 100.9 103.2 106.5 102.3 102.8 99.4 101.4 103.6 105.5 102.3 100.0 101.8 105.1 104.1 101.8 100.0 102.1 105.6 104.0 102.0 100.6 102.9 106.3 102.8 102.2 100.0 102.0 105.2 104.1 102.1 2017 2018 102.5 105.5 102.2 106.5 102.7 103.7 103.7 103.8 103.6 103.2 103.2 104.8 105.3 105.7 102.5 103.7 103.3 105.3 103.7 Year N OTE : Estimates from October 2017 through February 2018 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 16 Table 1B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Total Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 1988 1989 1990 1991 74.5 75.1 77.0 78.6 74.6 75.2 77.2 78.7 74.6 75.3 77.4 78.8 74.7 75.5 77.5 78.9 74.7 75.6 77.7 79.0 74.7 75.8 77.8 79.1 74.7 75.9 78.0 79.2 74.8 76.1 78.1 79.3 74.8 76.3 78.2 79.4 74.9 76.5 78.3 79.5 74.9 76.7 78.4 79.6 75.0 76.8 78.5 79.8 74.6 75.2 77.2 78.7 74.7 75.6 77.7 79.0 74.8 76.1 78.1 79.3 74.9 76.7 78.4 79.6 74.7 75.9 77.8 79.2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.9 81.9 83.5 86.5 90.6 80.1 82.0 83.7 86.8 91.0 80.2 82.1 83.9 87.1 91.4 80.4 82.2 84.1 87.4 91.8 80.6 82.4 84.3 87.7 92.2 80.8 82.5 84.6 88.0 92.7 80.9 82.6 84.8 88.4 93.1 81.1 82.7 85.1 88.7 93.6 81.3 82.8 85.4 89.0 94.0 81.5 83.0 85.7 89.4 94.4 81.6 83.1 85.9 89.8 94.9 81.7 83.3 86.2 90.2 95.4 80.1 82.0 83.7 86.8 91.0 80.6 82.4 84.3 87.7 92.2 81.1 82.7 85.1 88.7 93.6 81.6 83.1 85.9 89.8 94.9 80.8 82.6 84.8 88.3 92.9 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 95.8 102.7 109.9 114.9 119.5 96.3 103.4 110.3 115.3 119.9 96.8 104.1 110.8 115.7 120.3 97.3 104.8 111.2 116.1 120.6 97.8 105.4 111.7 116.5 121.0 98.4 106.1 112.1 116.9 121.3 98.9 106.7 112.5 117.3 121.6 99.5 107.2 112.9 117.7 121.9 100.1 107.8 113.3 118.0 122.2 100.8 108.3 113.7 118.4 122.4 101.4 108.9 114.2 118.8 122.7 102.1 109.4 114.6 119.2 122.9 96.3 103.4 110.3 115.3 119.9 97.8 105.4 111.7 116.5 121.0 99.5 107.2 112.9 117.7 121.9 101.4 108.9 114.1 118.8 122.7 98.8 106.2 112.3 117.1 121.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 123.1 123.8 123.4 123.6 125.5 123.3 123.8 123.4 123.7 125.7 123.5 123.7 123.4 123.9 125.8 123.6 123.7 123.4 124.0 126.0 123.7 123.6 123.4 124.1 126.2 123.8 123.6 123.4 124.3 126.4 123.9 123.6 123.4 124.5 126.6 123.9 123.5 123.4 124.6 126.9 123.9 123.5 123.4 124.8 127.1 123.9 123.5 123.4 125.0 127.4 123.9 123.5 123.5 125.1 127.7 123.9 123.4 123.5 125.3 128.0 123.3 123.8 123.4 123.7 125.7 123.7 123.6 123.4 124.2 126.2 123.9 123.5 123.4 124.6 126.9 123.9 123.5 123.5 125.1 127.7 123.7 123.6 123.4 124.4 126.6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 128.3 129.8 130.1 129.4 126.9 128.6 129.8 130.3 129.1 126.9 128.8 129.7 130.4 128.8 126.9 129.1 129.6 130.4 128.5 126.9 129.4 129.5 130.5 128.2 127.0 129.6 129.5 130.5 128.0 127.1 129.7 129.5 130.5 127.7 127.3 129.9 129.5 130.4 127.5 127.4 129.9 129.6 130.3 127.3 127.6 130.0 129.7 130.1 127.2 127.8 130.0 129.8 129.9 127.1 128.0 129.9 130.0 129.6 127.0 128.2 128.6 129.8 130.2 129.1 126.9 129.3 129.5 130.5 128.3 127.0 129.8 129.5 130.4 127.5 127.4 129.9 129.8 129.9 127.1 128.0 129.4 129.7 130.2 128.0 127.3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 128.4 130.8 132.3 134.3 135.1 128.7 131.0 132.4 134.4 135.2 128.9 131.1 132.6 134.5 135.2 129.1 131.3 132.7 134.6 135.3 129.3 131.4 132.9 134.7 135.4 129.5 131.5 133.0 134.8 135.5 129.7 131.6 133.2 134.8 135.5 129.9 131.8 133.4 134.9 135.6 130.1 131.9 133.6 134.9 135.7 130.3 132.0 133.8 135.0 135.8 130.5 132.1 134.0 135.0 135.8 130.7 132.2 134.1 135.1 135.9 128.7 131.0 132.4 134.4 135.2 129.3 131.4 132.9 134.7 135.4 129.9 131.8 133.4 134.9 135.6 130.5 132.1 134.0 135.0 135.8 129.6 131.6 133.2 134.8 135.5 2017 2018 135.9 137.0 136.0 137.2 136.0 136.0 136.1 136.1 136.2 136.3 136.4 136.5 136.6 136.8 136.0 136.1 136.3 136.6 136.2 Utilization (percent) 1988 1989 1990 1991 83.4 85.2 82.3 80.0 83.7 84.7 83.0 79.3 83.8 84.8 83.2 78.8 84.3 84.7 82.9 78.9 84.1 84.0 82.9 79.6 84.3 83.8 83.0 80.2 84.3 82.9 82.8 80.2 84.6 83.5 82.9 80.2 84.4 83.0 82.9 80.8 84.7 82.7 82.1 80.5 84.8 82.8 81.0 80.3 85.1 83.1 80.4 79.9 83.6 84.9 82.8 79.4 84.2 84.2 82.9 79.6 84.4 83.1 82.8 80.4 84.9 82.9 81.2 80.2 84.3 83.8 82.5 79.9 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.3 81.3 82.4 84.9 82.5 79.7 81.5 82.2 84.4 83.4 80.2 81.3 82.8 84.3 82.9 80.6 81.5 83.1 83.9 83.3 80.7 81.1 83.3 83.9 83.5 80.5 81.1 83.6 83.9 83.8 81.1 81.2 83.4 83.3 83.3 80.5 81.0 83.7 84.0 83.4 80.5 81.3 83.7 84.0 83.6 81.0 81.8 84.2 83.5 83.1 81.2 82.0 84.4 83.4 83.4 81.1 82.2 85.0 83.4 83.6 79.7 81.4 82.5 84.5 82.9 80.6 81.2 83.3 83.9 83.5 80.7 81.2 83.6 83.7 83.4 81.1 82.0 84.5 83.4 83.4 80.5 81.4 83.5 83.9 83.3 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.3 84.3 81.8 81.9 79.1 83.9 83.9 81.9 81.9 78.4 84.0 83.4 81.7 81.9 77.9 83.6 83.2 81.6 82.2 77.5 83.6 83.2 81.8 82.1 76.8 83.6 82.2 81.4 81.9 76.1 83.7 81.4 81.6 81.5 75.5 84.1 82.6 81.6 81.0 75.2 84.4 82.1 81.0 81.1 74.8 84.6 82.3 81.8 80.6 74.3 84.7 81.9 81.9 80.3 73.8 84.5 81.8 82.2 79.9 73.6 83.7 83.9 81.8 81.9 78.5 83.6 82.8 81.6 82.1 76.8 84.1 82.0 81.4 81.2 75.2 84.6 82.0 81.9 80.2 73.9 84.0 82.7 81.7 81.4 76.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 74.0 75.6 77.1 79.9 80.5 73.8 75.9 77.5 80.4 80.4 74.3 75.8 77.2 80.2 80.5 74.6 75.3 77.5 80.2 80.7 74.8 75.3 78.1 80.2 80.5 75.5 75.5 77.5 80.4 80.7 75.3 75.8 78.1 80.1 80.5 75.2 75.7 78.2 80.2 80.7 75.3 76.2 78.2 78.6 80.3 75.1 76.3 78.9 79.5 80.1 75.5 76.9 79.1 80.2 79.9 75.2 76.8 79.6 80.6 80.5 74.1 75.8 77.3 80.2 80.5 74.9 75.3 77.7 80.3 80.6 75.3 75.9 78.2 79.6 80.5 75.3 76.7 79.2 80.1 80.2 74.9 75.9 78.1 80.0 80.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 79.9 80.9 70.0 70.9 75.6 80.5 80.7 69.4 71.3 75.3 80.5 80.6 68.3 71.9 76.0 80.9 80.0 67.7 72.3 75.7 80.8 79.6 67.0 73.5 75.8 80.7 79.4 66.7 73.8 76.0 80.6 79.0 67.5 74.2 76.3 80.7 77.8 68.3 74.6 76.6 80.9 74.3 68.9 74.9 76.5 80.6 75.0 69.2 74.8 76.9 81.0 74.0 69.6 74.9 76.7 81.1 71.7 69.9 75.6 77.0 80.3 80.7 69.2 71.3 75.6 80.8 79.7 67.1 73.2 75.8 80.7 77.0 68.2 74.6 76.5 80.9 73.6 69.6 75.1 76.9 80.7 77.8 68.5 73.6 76.2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 77.4 77.1 77.6 78.8 76.3 77.4 77.4 78.2 78.4 75.7 76.9 77.6 78.9 78.1 75.1 77.4 77.5 78.9 77.7 75.2 77.4 77.4 79.1 77.3 75.0 77.2 77.5 79.2 76.9 75.3 77.3 77.1 79.2 77.3 75.4 76.9 77.6 79.1 77.2 75.3 76.8 77.9 79.2 76.9 75.1 76.8 77.7 79.1 76.6 75.2 77.1 77.9 79.6 76.1 75.0 77.2 78.1 79.4 75.7 75.7 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.5 75.7 77.3 77.5 79.1 77.3 75.2 77.0 77.5 79.2 77.1 75.2 77.1 77.9 79.4 76.1 75.3 77.2 77.6 79.0 77.3 75.3 2017 2018 75.4 77.0 75.1 77.7 75.5 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.1 75.7 75.7 76.8 77.0 77.3 75.4 76.2 75.8 77.0 76.1 N OTE : Estimates from October 2017 through February 2018 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 17 Table 2 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY: 2013–17 1 Item 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2.3 3.4 -3.3 -.5 3.0 .1 .0 -.7 -.4 -.6 1.1 1.6 8.0 13.7 1.1 2.9 3.1 -.1 -2.0 1.0 -5.5 -7.2 -2.0 6.0 1.6 .9 4.1 6.5 .8 3.8 1.1 .0 1.3 .4 -3.3 4.8 -3.4 -4.2 -2.2 .5 2.6 3.9 4.4 3.4 .1 .0 .8 1.7 -6.0 -.3 .9 -3.2 -.1 .8 2.5 4.2 2.1 .3 .8 .2 -.8 .2 -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 4.4 2.1 1.2 -.5 -.8 5.4 -2.1 .2 1.7 1.4 3.1 -9.9 -.3 -.8 2.5 .3 .1 -.5 -1.3 -1.3 .1 .4 .3 .3 .1 -.4 .9 .4 .1 .0 -.4 .0 .1 1.9 .2 -.3 -.5 -.5 .0 -.8 -1.8 -.8 -.3 -1.0 -.7 -.5 -1.0 2.0 -.5 .0 -.8 -1.2 -.6 -.3 -3.5 3.3 .7 -.3 .1 -.8 -1.7 -2.5 -.6 .7 .4 .3 .4 3.7 -.4 3.2 .7 -.4 -.6 -.9 -.5 .3 -1.4 -1.5 -.5 -.4 -.1 -1.4 -.7 -3.4 -.7 -1.4 3.1 -2.8 -2.8 -4.5 3.5 11.7 .1 1.1 -2.0 -6.2 -2.9 -1.6 -9.6 -3.1 -2.2 -6.0 3.3 -2.4 .0 4.7 1.5 3.2 7.0 -3.3 .3 -.1 -1.3 1.2 .0 .0 .5 .4 -.4 .4 -2.9 -4.1 -1.8 -2.8 -.2 -1.8 -2.6 -.7 -1.8 1.2 .7 1.2 1.8 -.1 -4.7 3.8 2.6 3.6 -.3 .0 -1.0 .5 .5 3.5 1.1 .3 .3 -.2 -.3 -.1 -.6 -.2 .4 .1 .1 3.6 2.2 3.7 4.4 4.4 3.0 .0 5.7 -.9 -1.0 5.1 5.1 1.4 3.1 5.2 4.2 1.6 -1.2 -3.1 -.9 -2.8 9.5 -4.6 -2.7 -3.9 -2.0 -5.9 -3.4 -.7 -7.3 -2.1 -.3 -7.2 -1.1 -.2 -.8 -.2 .3 -1.6 .7 .5 .1 .2 -2.7 4.1 2.3 2.3 .8 1.1 3.5 2.3 -2.9 -3.5 4.1 7.1 .0 .1 .0 -.2 -.1 .1 .3 -2.0 .1 .8 -.1 .0 .0 .1 .8 .0 .0 -.2 -.3 -.4 -.4 .0 -.3 -.5 -.6 -2.0 -.8 .1 -.4 -4.6 .7 -.3 -.1 -.6 -.9 -1.3 -5.4 1.1 -1.2 -.2 -1.3 1.6 -.8 -.1 -.8 -.4 -.5 .3 -1.9 -.1 -.1 -.8 -1.0 .2 -1.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 1.1 1.1 2.6 4.3 5.8 5.4 3.5 -2.8 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.9 2.7 -1.0 .0 1.8 4.2 -1.6 -1.6 -3.4 3.3 1.9 -8.2 -5.2 -12.4 -.9 -.1 .1 -.3 4.2 -.4 -4.0 -1.8 -2.3 4.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 3.5 5.4 4.6 3.0 9.1 2.7 .2 .2 .1 .1 1.2 .1 .0 1.2 -.7 -.2 -.2 .1 .1 -.5 .3 -.1 -.5 -.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -.5 -.5 -.2 -.5 -3.4 -.3 -.3 -.4 -1.2 .5 -.6 -2.0 -1.1 -2.8 .9 -.4 -.3 -.5 .0 -.2 .7 -1.2 .5 .4 335 3361–3 .5 10.2 1.7 7.2 -1.0 2.8 -.1 2.2 .9 -1.2 .5 -.8 .9 .3 -2.8 -1.1 -.8 -2.6 -2.3 -.4 3364–9 337 339 .8 -.9 2.0 5.8 4.6 -1.3 -5.2 3.9 -.5 -3.1 -.7 -1.8 -2.1 -3.4 -3.4 -.1 .0 .1 .9 .2 .6 -3.1 .1 .4 -1.1 1.2 -.9 -2.0 -3.2 .7 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 -.5 1.2 4.6 -5.0 -1.5 2.3 3.6 -3.8 -.1 .2 .8 1.7 -3.0 .8 -4.0 -6.3 .7 4.6 .4 1.8 -7.0 -5.9 -2.3 1.8 3.4 -.9 .8 .6 .7 .2 -2.5 1.0 1.1 3.8 -.6 1.6 2.2 3.5 -1.7 -9.4 -2.3 -2.1 2.6 2.8 2.0 .3 .0 -2.3 -.5 .0 .3 .8 .7 -.1 -.5 .0 .8 -.6 -.3 -1.2 -.8 -1.0 .2 -.8 -.6 -5.1 -.3 .9 -1.1 2.0 -2.2 .1 .4 .4 -.7 3.6 1.1 3.0 1.7 -.8 2.1 -.1 -.1 -.4 -1.4 -1.0 -.7 -.4 .1 -.1 1133,5111 -.3 -5.4 .1 -5.1 -4.8 .2 -.6 2.4 2.2 -1.9 21 2211,2 2211 2212 5.7 4.3 3.5 11.1 12.5 -.7 -.4 -2.9 -10.2 -4.1 -3.1 -12.1 -6.2 2.3 2.2 3.6 10.5 2.0 .9 9.6 .1 -.1 -.1 .0 .6 -.1 -.1 .0 .7 -.3 -.4 .0 -1.1 -.1 .1 -.9 -.4 -.8 -1.0 .9 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) 31–33 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries– logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be a part of manufacturing and are included in the industrial sector. 18 Table 3 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL : 2013–17 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total industry 2.3 3.4 -3.3 -.5 3.0 .1 .0 -.7 -.4 -.6 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 5.0 6.0 3.9 1.8 .0 6.4 7.1 -4.2 .1 19.6 .5 11.7 -7.6 -3.2 .0 -45.6 -2.6 -8.4 -1.5 4.4 2.4 -26.6 .7 -4.2 6.2 2.5 1.8 36.4 .7 9.7 .0 .1 .1 3.8 -.6 .0 .4 -.3 -.1 13.2 -.3 -.1 .3 .7 .3 14.1 -1.2 .2 -.2 .7 .8 -3.7 -.9 .2 -.9 -.7 -.6 -13.7 -2.2 -.3 3341 3342 1.1 10.9 -2.0 11.9 1.7 8.7 8.0 -4.7 -1.7 1.9 -4.1 6.7 -.3 8.5 13.2 7.1 1.9 3.6 20.8 -2.9 .2 -.7 -.7 -4.0 -.2 -.4 2.0 .2 -1.0 2.3 -2.0 5.8 -.5 1.0 -1.5 -6.5 -.3 .2 4.8 2.3 3344 14.3 14.5 1.6 7.9 2.3 .6 -1.4 2.0 4.7 -2.1 .7 1.5 -1.8 -.6 1.9 .2 -.2 -1.1 -.5 -.4 10.2 14.5 6.3 7.2 4.7 9.1 2.8 4.6 1.2 2.2 1.5 3.7 -1.2 -5.2 1.6 -.8 -.2 -.2 .3 -.5 .6 -1.1 -.2 -1.7 -2.6 -.6 -3.8 -.4 -.8 1.1 .0 -1.2 -2.5 3.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.4 3.6 3.6 -1.5 .3 -2.2 .9 -8.1 .0 -1.4 -3.1 -.8 -.7 -2.5 .5 -.9 -.7 2.2 1.2 5.3 3.5 .7 2.4 .3 .3 .6 .3 .4 .1 -.2 -.5 .0 -.2 -.3 .0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.7 -.1 -1.1 -.5 -.3 .2 -1.7 -.2 .0 -.7 -.4 -.6 1.0 .1 .4 -.5 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing2 Durable 2.1 .7 2.0 3.2 1.1 2.4 -3.5 -1.7 -3.7 -.8 -.3 -.9 2.9 1.8 1.9 .2 .2 .1 .0 -.2 .1 -.8 -1.1 -1.5 -.4 -.4 -1.3 -.6 -.4 -.6 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing2 Durable 1.9 .5 1.6 3.2 .9 2.1 -3.7 -1.9 -4.3 -.7 -.3 -.8 3.2 2.2 2.6 .2 .2 .2 .0 -.2 .1 -.6 -1.0 -1.3 -.3 -.2 -.9 -.6 -.4 -.5 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing2 1.7 .1 3.0 .6 -3.8 -2.1 -1.0 -.6 3.2 2.1 .2 .3 .0 -.2 -.7 -1.1 -.3 -.2 -.6 -.4 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 3.5 1.4 3.3 .2 -4.2 -1.7 .1 -.4 .0 3.6 -.1 .3 .1 -.1 -1.0 -.2 -.8 -.9 -1.0 .0 4.7 3.6 -1.0 8.1 1.3 2.7 -6.3 -2.3 -2.9 -3.2 .5 -.7 7.2 2.0 2.3 .1 .1 .3 -.3 -.1 .3 -.2 -.1 -1.7 .0 -.1 -.9 -.8 -.6 -.2 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 213111 Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 3361–3 3361 3363 1. See footnote 1 to table 2. 2. See footnote 2 to table 2. 19 Table 4 A NNUAL R ATES OF C HANGE FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : 2013–17 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total IP 2.0 3.1 -1.0 -1.9 1.6 .1 .0 -.3 -.7 -.3 M ARKET G ROUPS Consumer goods Durable Nondurable .7 5.5 -.5 .8 4.9 -.3 1.5 4.0 .8 .6 2.2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0 -.1 .0 -.9 -.2 -1.1 .0 -.6 .2 -.4 -.9 -.2 -.1 -2.9 1.8 -3.3 -2.0 -2.4 -5.3 -2.8 3.3 .2 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 -1.1 .8 -3.5 -1.4 1.0 .3 Construction supplies Business supplies 3.1 1.8 3.2 1.0 .6 -1.4 .9 .4 2.5 .5 .1 .0 -.2 .0 .1 -.7 -.4 .2 .1 .1 Materials Non-energy Energy 3.4 1.9 5.1 5.0 1.9 8.5 -1.5 -1.8 -1.3 -3.0 -1.1 -5.8 2.0 1.4 3.1 -.1 .0 -.1 -.1 .0 -.1 -.1 -.3 .0 -.6 -1.0 .0 -.6 -.3 -.9 .9 1.1 2.1 .0 -5.0 1.1 1.2 2.9 -.6 -1.3 -.5 -.4 -1.1 .3 -3.6 -.8 -.7 -2.1 .8 -2.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 -6.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .0 -.2 -.6 -.7 -.3 -1.1 .3 -.8 -1.0 -1.9 .1 4.1 -.1 .0 -.1 .1 -1.7 6.3 2.2 10.7 1.3 -3.4 -.7 -9.7 -.4 6.4 -1.3 .4 -.1 .0 -.1 .9 -.1 -.6 -.2 -.4 -.5 Business equipment Defense and space equipment I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities 1. The rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the annual averages of not seasonally adjusted industrial production indexes rather than as the percent change between the fourth quarter of one year and the fourth quarter of the next. 2. See footnote 2 to table 2. Table 5 R ATES OF C HANGE IN C APACITY, BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS : 2014–18 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1.4 .8 .6 .6 1.9 -.2 -.3 .4 -.5 -.3 -.3 -.1 .3 -.6 -3.5 -.3 -.2 .3 -.8 -3.4 1.3 1.4 .9 2.1 -2.7 .7 .9 .9 .9 -3.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 -2.9 -.2 -.3 .0 -.5 .7 -.4 -.5 -.5 -.4 1.0 .6 .6 -.3 1.5 1.4 .1 .1 -.1 .3 .5 -.1 -.1 -.3 .0 .2 Mining Utilities 6.8 .4 .9 .4 -3.1 1.6 -1.0 1.8 4.8 2.3 -.4 -.1 .2 -.6 1.0 -.6 -3.7 1.1 -1.4 -.2 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing2 ex. selected high-technology industries 2.3 3.3 7.4 3.2 4.4 -1.5 1.6 2.5 -2.1 .8 -.3 -.4 1.1 .7 1.2 -.2 -.5 .5 .2 -.1 5.3 -.2 .0 .4 -.2 .1 -2.4 1.7 1.0 -.5 .7 1.1 3.6 1.6 1.5 -.5 .0 -.3 -.2 .0 -.8 .9 .6 .3 -3.2 .2 .4 -1.4 .0 -.2 Total industry 2 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. See footnote 2 to table 2. 20 Table 6 R EVISED AND E ARLIER C APACITY U TILIZATION R ATES , BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Difference between revised and earlier rates (percentage points) Revised Rate Item 19722017 Ave. 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 79.8 79.4 76.1 75.3 77.0 .5 .1 -.5 -.5 31–33 78.3 78.2 76.3 76.9 75.4 75.8 74.4 74.8 75.2 75.7 .4 .5 .0 .0 -.7 -.7 -1.1 -1.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 76.9 76.5 73.8 78.3 77.5 77.5 77.5 77.6 72.8 65.1 73.3 80.5 78.0 74.0 74.7 75.3 65.9 67.6 77.6 68.6 70.8 73.8 76.7 64.1 66.4 76.1 68.0 70.4 74.6 78.2 65.7 68.9 78.7 75.3 70.7 .4 1.3 1.1 -2.8 -.6 1.6 1.2 -.2 1.1 .6 -2.0 -.8 -.4 .4 -.9 -.2 -.6 -.1 -2.2 -1.1 .5 -1.2 -.9 -1.1 -.5 -3.3 .1 2.0 335 3361–3 82.2 75.2 81.4 78.3 77.3 79.9 76.7 80.4 76.3 77.2 .2 -.1 -3.0 -.6 -4.0 -2.5 -6.9 -4.5 3364–9 337 339 74.2 76.7 76.6 85.4 78.8 78.2 80.4 81.4 80.3 77.2 79.1 80.2 75.6 75.7 77.7 1.1 1.5 .2 -.5 1.1 2.5 -1.3 -.1 2.7 -1.7 -2.4 3.6 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 80.1 80.6 78.8 76.3 86.7 79.6 85.1 76.8 82.1 76.1 77.6 72.8 67.3 85.3 66.2 81.9 71.9 83.6 77.1 77.6 68.0 66.5 85.3 70.2 81.6 73.5 85.3 75.9 75.8 69.0 68.3 88.0 73.4 76.1 72.8 83.1 76.8 76.7 68.7 64.9 86.3 73.7 79.5 74.3 82.2 .6 .4 .7 -1.9 .0 2.6 .0 .7 .9 .3 .2 -3.2 -2.2 .4 3.1 -.5 -.3 2.8 -.6 -1.0 -2.6 .8 .8 6.2 -4.0 -1.3 2.2 -.9 -2.0 -1.7 .0 -.2 6.6 -2.4 -1.3 .9 1133,5111 80.0 62.1 64.3 62.7 61.9 -1.7 -.8 -.2 -1.8 21 2211,2 87.0 85.3 91.0 81.2 81.0 77.5 78.4 78.1 87.5 78.2 .5 .4 .9 .6 -.8 1.0 1.9 -.4 3341 3342 77.4 78.0 76.4 73.8 71.2 69.8 72.8 66.5 71.5 73.5 83.8 72.4 73.8 96.4 65.3 1.5 .2 -1.6 1.9 -.2 1.4 .9 7.3 -3.6 2.5 4.0 -3.7 3344 78.6 76.0 74.9 71.6 72.7 3.0 2.7 1.5 4.8 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 80.0 78.4 79.5 76.4 76.2 75.5 75.3 74.4 77.1 75.3 .4 .4 .1 -.1 -.5 -.8 -.6 -1.2 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.0 80.4 76.9 88.6 77.3 76.3 80.5 75.8 75.0 79.4 74.9 73.9 86.2 76.0 74.3 .5 .2 .6 .7 .3 -.2 -.3 -.4 -.8 1.9 -.9 -1.4 Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 1. See footnote 2 to table 2. 21 Table 7A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 IP (percent change) 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 .2 -1.0 1.5 -.7 .2 -.1 .5 -.7 .9 .3 -.3 .4 -.2 -.9 .2 .7 .2 .2 .3 1.1 .0 -1.1 -.2 .3 .1 .9 .3 .2 .4 -.3 .0 1.1 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .3 .2 -1.1 -.2 .5 .1 -.7 -.2 2.7 2.1 4.2 -8.7 4.2 -2.7 3.0 1.9 .7 -3.1 1.2 7.2 4.5 .4 -6.7 1.7 5.3 .8 .8 -1.9 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 1.0 .2 .2 -.8 .9 .2 .1 -.3 1.6 1.0 -.2 1.3 .2 -.2 .5 .6 .9 -.2 1.1 .6 -.1 .6 .2 .8 .3 -.2 .3 .5 1.0 .9 .3 .4 -.7 .3 -.4 -.2 .8 1.1 .5 .0 .6 .5 .9 .8 .7 .9 1.0 -.1 -.1 .4 .4 .8 .1 .9 -.1 .6 1.1 .4 .9 .6 4.5 4.9 4.4 2.0 8.3 1.4 9.5 .7 10.0 4.1 .8 6.1 3.1 7.7 3.2 7.0 10.3 4.3 6.0 3.7 3.6 5.9 5.1 4.9 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .8 .3 .1 -.6 1.4 .1 .8 .2 -.6 1.0 -.1 -.1 .6 -.2 -.2 .5 .4 .8 -.3 .7 .5 .9 -.1 -.6 .7 -.8 -.3 .2 -.7 .7 -.4 .5 .1 -.4 1.3 2.4 .6 -.7 -.5 .9 -.2 -.4 .4 -.2 .9 1.0 1.5 -.3 -.6 1.1 .2 .6 -.3 -.3 .4 .5 .7 -.5 .3 9.4 6.1 5.1 4.4 -5.9 7.1 2.1 4.5 4.9 -5.2 10.4 3.3 3.2 -.4 -5.8 11.5 8.0 8.6 -2.4 -3.8 8.4 6.7 5.1 4.1 -3.6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .5 .0 .8 .8 .0 .1 .7 .8 -.3 .8 .1 -.2 -.5 -.1 .2 -.8 .4 .3 .5 .5 .1 .8 .3 -.4 1.1 .5 -.7 .1 .4 -.3 .2 .9 -.3 -.3 .2 -.4 .5 .5 .6 .1 .8 .0 -1.0 .1 -.4 .1 1.0 1.5 -.4 .4 1.0 .0 .8 .0 -.5 -.2 .7 .2 1.5 3.7 1.8 2.6 6.6 3.8 5.8 -1.9 3.3 2.3 .8 3.1 2.4 4.0 -.7 1.0 -.3 4.5 5.5 6.4 1.5 .5 1.3 3.1 4.1 2.6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.5 -.4 -3.1 1.1 .2 .4 -.6 -.2 -.1 .1 .8 -.3 -1.8 1.2 .6 .7 -1.1 -.7 .8 -.6 -.1 -.6 -1.0 1.4 .1 .3 -.7 -.3 -.1 .1 .1 -1.2 1.5 .6 .6 -.3 -1.2 1.1 .1 .4 .5 -3.4 .9 .0 .3 -.3 -.6 .2 .1 .6 .5 -2.4 1.0 .0 -.3 .2 -3.5 -.2 .5 .7 4.1 -2.5 -24.4 6.9 3.2 5.9 -8.2 -10.6 10.3 -.1 1.0 -14.1 8.1 4.1 4.4 1.2 -21.8 7.2 1.2 3.9 2.8 -4.8 -13.8 5.8 2.9 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .8 -.3 -1.2 -.5 .5 .4 .5 1.1 -.6 -.4 -.5 -.1 .8 .3 -.2 .6 -.4 -.1 -.1 -.3 -.4 .3 .2 -.1 -.1 .2 .2 .3 -.4 .3 -.1 -1.0 .3 .6 .2 -.2 1.0 -.4 -.3 -.3 -.1 .1 .0 -.4 .3 -.4 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .7 .0 .8 -.2 .0 .8 .0 -.3 -.2 .3 5.3 3.0 -.6 -2.9 .0 .5 -.2 4.2 -1.0 -2.5 -1.2 -.3 1.3 .1 .6 1.2 1.9 .6 -2.4 1.6 2.6 .9 1.1 -.5 -.8 2017 2018 .3 -.2 .1 1.3 -.5 1.1 -.4 .1 -.3 -.2 -.1 1.4 .2 .0 1.9 2.4 -2.1 5.5 1.2 IP (2012=100) 1988 1989 1990 1991 61.2 63.6 62.2 61.5 61.4 63.0 63.1 61.1 61.5 62.9 63.5 60.7 62.1 63.1 63.3 60.9 62.0 62.5 63.4 61.3 62.1 62.6 63.6 61.9 62.0 61.9 63.5 62.1 62.1 62.5 63.7 62.3 62.3 62.3 63.6 62.9 62.6 62.2 63.1 62.8 62.8 62.3 62.4 62.7 63.1 62.4 62.0 62.6 61.4 63.2 62.9 61.1 62.0 62.7 63.4 61.4 62.1 62.2 63.6 62.5 62.8 62.3 62.5 62.7 62.1 62.6 63.1 61.9 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 62.2 65.9 67.9 73.5 74.5 62.8 66.1 68.0 73.3 75.7 63.4 65.9 68.9 73.5 75.6 63.8 66.3 69.5 73.3 76.4 64.1 66.2 69.9 73.5 77.0 64.3 66.1 70.1 73.8 77.8 64.9 66.3 70.4 73.4 78.0 64.6 66.1 71.0 74.2 78.4 64.7 66.6 71.3 74.8 79.1 65.1 67.2 72.0 74.8 79.0 65.4 67.4 72.6 74.8 79.7 65.3 67.8 73.4 75.1 80.4 62.8 66.0 68.3 73.4 75.3 64.1 66.2 69.9 73.6 77.1 64.7 66.3 70.9 74.1 78.5 65.2 67.5 72.7 74.9 79.7 64.2 66.5 70.4 74.0 77.6 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 80.5 88.6 92.2 97.2 97.0 81.6 88.7 93.0 97.4 96.4 82.4 88.6 92.9 98.0 96.1 82.3 89.0 93.3 98.7 95.8 82.9 89.5 94.1 98.6 95.2 83.5 88.8 93.8 98.8 94.6 84.0 88.5 94.2 98.9 94.2 85.1 90.6 94.8 98.2 93.7 85.8 90.4 94.4 98.7 93.5 86.6 91.3 95.8 98.3 93.0 87.5 91.4 96.4 98.1 92.7 87.8 91.9 97.1 97.5 93.0 81.5 88.6 92.7 97.5 96.5 82.9 89.1 93.7 98.7 95.2 85.0 89.8 94.5 98.6 93.8 87.3 91.6 96.5 98.0 92.9 84.2 89.8 94.3 98.2 94.6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 93.5 96.0 97.5 102.3 105.9 93.5 96.1 98.2 103.1 105.6 94.2 96.3 98.1 102.6 105.5 94.4 95.5 98.5 103.0 106.1 94.9 95.6 99.3 103.3 105.6 96.0 96.0 98.5 103.5 106.0 95.6 96.3 99.4 103.1 105.7 95.8 95.9 99.9 103.6 106.4 95.9 96.6 99.9 102.6 106.4 95.6 96.8 100.9 104.1 106.0 96.0 97.7 100.8 104.9 106.1 95.5 97.5 101.5 105.1 107.6 93.7 96.1 97.9 102.7 105.7 95.1 95.7 98.8 103.3 105.9 95.8 96.3 99.7 103.1 106.2 95.7 97.3 101.1 104.7 106.6 95.1 96.4 99.4 103.4 106.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 107.0 109.7 90.8 92.1 96.5 107.5 109.0 90.6 92.1 96.6 108.4 108.6 88.9 93.2 97.2 109.1 107.4 88.3 93.9 96.6 109.0 106.8 87.4 95.2 96.7 109.4 106.1 87.1 95.1 96.8 109.5 104.8 88.4 95.6 97.4 109.2 103.5 89.4 95.7 97.8 109.7 100.0 90.2 95.7 98.1 109.3 99.3 90.4 95.8 98.6 109.9 97.0 91.3 95.8 98.4 110.1 93.6 91.1 96.3 99.1 107.6 109.1 90.1 92.4 96.7 109.2 106.8 87.6 94.7 96.7 109.5 102.8 89.3 95.7 97.8 109.8 96.6 90.9 96.0 98.7 109.0 103.8 89.5 94.7 97.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 99.9 100.6 100.0 102.1 101.3 100.3 101.1 101.1 101.5 100.9 99.8 100.9 102.0 101.8 100.7 100.3 100.5 101.8 101.8 100.3 99.9 100.8 102.1 101.6 100.2 100.1 101.1 102.4 101.3 100.5 99.9 100.0 102.8 101.9 100.6 99.8 101.0 102.3 101.7 100.3 99.7 101.1 102.3 101.2 100.6 99.3 101.2 102.1 101.2 100.8 100.1 101.2 103.0 101.0 100.8 100.9 101.2 102.7 100.7 101.1 100.0 100.8 101.0 101.8 101.0 100.1 100.8 102.1 101.6 100.3 99.8 100.7 102.4 101.6 100.5 100.1 101.2 102.6 101.0 100.9 100.0 100.9 102.0 101.5 100.7 2017 2018 101.5 102.7 101.6 104.1 101.1 102.2 101.8 101.9 101.7 101.4 101.3 102.7 102.9 102.9 101.4 102.0 101.5 102.8 101.9 Year N OTE : Estimates from October 2017 through February 2018 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 2. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 22 Table 7B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 1988 1989 1990 1991 73.7 74.3 76.4 78.2 73.8 74.4 76.6 78.3 73.8 74.5 76.8 78.4 73.8 74.7 77.0 78.5 73.9 74.8 77.1 78.6 73.9 75.0 77.3 78.7 73.9 75.2 77.5 78.9 73.9 75.4 77.6 79.0 74.0 75.6 77.7 79.1 74.0 75.8 77.9 79.2 74.1 76.0 78.0 79.3 74.2 76.2 78.1 79.5 73.8 74.4 76.6 78.3 73.9 74.8 77.1 78.6 73.9 75.4 77.6 79.0 74.1 76.0 78.0 79.3 73.9 75.2 77.3 78.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.7 82.0 83.7 87.0 91.8 79.8 82.1 83.9 87.3 92.2 80.0 82.2 84.1 87.7 92.7 80.2 82.4 84.4 88.0 93.3 80.4 82.5 84.6 88.4 93.8 80.6 82.6 84.9 88.7 94.3 80.9 82.7 85.2 89.1 94.8 81.1 82.9 85.4 89.5 95.3 81.3 83.0 85.7 89.9 95.8 81.4 83.2 86.0 90.4 96.4 81.6 83.3 86.4 90.8 96.9 81.8 83.5 86.7 91.3 97.5 79.8 82.1 83.9 87.3 92.3 80.4 82.5 84.6 88.4 93.8 81.1 82.9 85.4 89.5 95.3 81.6 83.3 86.4 90.8 96.9 80.7 82.7 85.1 89.0 94.6 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 98.0 106.1 114.5 120.6 126.4 98.6 106.9 115.0 121.1 126.8 99.2 107.7 115.6 121.6 127.2 99.7 108.5 116.1 122.1 127.6 100.4 109.2 116.6 122.6 128.0 101.0 110.0 117.1 123.1 128.3 101.6 110.7 117.6 123.6 128.6 102.3 111.4 118.1 124.1 128.9 103.0 112.0 118.6 124.5 129.1 103.8 112.7 119.1 125.0 129.4 104.5 113.3 119.6 125.5 129.6 105.3 113.9 120.1 125.9 129.7 98.6 106.9 115.0 121.1 126.8 100.4 109.2 116.6 122.6 128.0 102.3 111.4 118.1 124.1 128.9 104.6 113.3 119.6 125.5 129.6 101.5 110.2 117.4 123.3 128.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 129.9 130.5 130.1 130.7 133.6 130.0 130.5 130.1 130.9 133.8 130.2 130.5 130.0 131.1 134.0 130.3 130.4 130.0 131.3 134.3 130.3 130.4 130.0 131.6 134.5 130.4 130.4 130.0 131.9 134.7 130.4 130.3 130.0 132.1 134.9 130.5 130.3 130.0 132.4 135.1 130.5 130.3 130.1 132.7 135.4 130.5 130.2 130.2 132.9 135.7 130.5 130.2 130.3 133.2 135.9 130.5 130.2 130.5 133.4 136.2 130.0 130.5 130.1 130.9 133.8 130.3 130.4 130.0 131.6 134.5 130.4 130.3 130.1 132.4 135.1 130.5 130.2 130.3 133.2 135.9 130.3 130.3 130.1 132.0 134.8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 136.6 139.7 137.8 135.3 132.7 136.9 139.7 137.6 135.0 132.6 137.2 139.6 137.4 134.8 132.5 137.6 139.5 137.2 134.6 132.4 137.9 139.4 137.0 134.4 132.3 138.3 139.2 136.7 134.1 132.3 138.6 139.1 136.5 133.9 132.3 138.9 138.9 136.3 133.7 132.3 139.1 138.7 136.1 133.5 132.4 139.3 138.5 135.9 133.3 132.4 139.5 138.3 135.7 133.1 132.5 139.6 138.1 135.5 132.9 132.6 136.9 139.6 137.6 135.0 132.6 137.9 139.4 137.0 134.4 132.3 138.9 138.9 136.3 133.7 132.3 139.5 138.3 135.7 133.1 132.5 138.3 139.0 136.6 134.0 132.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 132.8 134.3 134.8 134.2 134.2 132.9 134.4 134.8 134.1 134.3 133.0 134.5 134.8 134.0 134.4 133.2 134.5 134.7 133.9 134.6 133.3 134.6 134.7 133.9 134.8 133.4 134.6 134.7 133.8 135.0 133.6 134.7 134.7 133.8 135.1 133.7 134.7 134.6 133.8 135.3 133.8 134.7 134.5 133.8 135.4 134.0 134.7 134.5 133.9 135.6 134.1 134.7 134.4 133.9 135.7 134.2 134.7 134.3 134.0 135.8 132.9 134.4 134.8 134.1 134.3 133.3 134.6 134.7 133.9 134.8 133.7 134.7 134.6 133.8 135.3 134.1 134.7 134.4 133.9 135.7 133.5 134.6 134.6 133.9 135.0 2017 2018 135.9 136.9 136.0 137.0 136.0 136.1 136.2 136.2 136.3 136.4 136.5 136.6 136.7 136.8 136.0 136.2 136.4 136.7 136.3 Utilization (percent) 1988 1989 1990 1991 83.1 85.6 81.5 78.6 83.2 84.7 82.5 78.0 83.4 84.4 82.7 77.3 84.1 84.5 82.2 77.5 83.9 83.5 82.2 77.9 84.0 83.5 82.2 78.7 84.0 82.4 81.9 78.8 84.0 82.9 82.0 78.9 84.3 82.4 81.8 79.6 84.6 82.1 81.0 79.3 84.8 82.0 80.0 79.0 85.1 81.9 79.3 78.8 83.2 84.9 82.2 78.0 84.0 83.8 82.2 78.0 84.1 82.5 81.9 79.1 84.8 82.0 80.1 79.1 84.0 83.3 81.6 78.5 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.1 80.4 81.2 84.5 81.2 78.6 80.5 81.1 83.9 82.1 79.3 80.1 81.9 83.8 81.5 79.5 80.5 82.4 83.3 82.0 79.7 80.3 82.7 83.1 82.1 79.8 80.0 82.6 83.2 82.5 80.3 80.1 82.7 82.3 82.3 79.7 79.8 83.0 82.8 82.3 79.6 80.2 83.2 83.2 82.5 79.9 80.8 83.7 82.7 82.0 80.1 80.9 84.0 82.4 82.2 79.8 81.2 84.6 82.3 82.5 78.7 80.3 81.4 84.1 81.6 79.7 80.2 82.6 83.2 82.2 79.9 80.0 83.0 82.8 82.4 79.9 81.0 84.1 82.5 82.2 79.5 80.4 82.8 83.1 82.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.1 83.5 80.6 80.6 76.7 82.8 83.0 80.8 80.4 76.0 83.1 82.3 80.4 80.6 75.6 82.5 82.0 80.4 80.8 75.1 82.6 81.9 80.7 80.4 74.4 82.7 80.7 80.1 80.2 73.7 82.7 79.9 80.1 80.0 73.2 83.1 81.3 80.3 79.2 72.7 83.3 80.7 79.6 79.2 72.4 83.4 81.0 80.4 78.7 71.9 83.7 80.7 80.6 78.2 71.6 83.4 80.7 80.8 77.5 71.7 82.7 82.9 80.6 80.5 76.1 82.6 81.6 80.4 80.5 74.4 83.0 80.6 80.0 79.5 72.8 83.5 80.8 80.6 78.1 71.7 83.0 81.5 80.4 79.6 73.8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 72.0 73.6 74.9 78.3 79.3 71.9 73.7 75.5 78.8 78.9 72.4 73.8 75.4 78.3 78.7 72.5 73.2 75.7 78.4 79.0 72.8 73.3 76.4 78.5 78.6 73.6 73.7 75.8 78.5 78.7 73.3 73.9 76.5 78.0 78.4 73.5 73.6 76.8 78.2 78.7 73.5 74.2 76.8 77.3 78.6 73.3 74.3 77.5 78.3 78.2 73.6 75.0 77.4 78.8 78.0 73.2 74.9 77.8 78.8 79.0 72.1 73.7 75.3 78.5 79.0 73.0 73.4 76.0 78.5 78.8 73.4 73.9 76.7 77.9 78.6 73.4 74.7 77.5 78.6 78.4 73.0 73.9 76.4 78.4 78.7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 78.4 78.5 65.8 68.1 72.7 78.5 78.0 65.8 68.2 72.8 79.0 77.8 64.7 69.1 73.3 79.3 77.0 64.4 69.8 73.0 79.0 76.6 63.8 70.9 73.1 79.1 76.2 63.7 70.9 73.2 79.0 75.4 64.8 71.4 73.6 78.6 74.6 65.6 71.6 73.9 78.8 72.1 66.3 71.7 74.1 78.5 71.7 66.5 71.9 74.5 78.8 70.1 67.3 72.0 74.2 78.9 67.8 67.2 72.5 74.7 78.6 78.1 65.5 68.5 73.0 79.2 76.6 64.0 70.5 73.1 78.8 74.0 65.5 71.6 73.9 78.7 69.9 67.0 72.1 74.5 78.8 74.6 65.5 70.7 73.6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 75.3 74.9 74.2 76.1 75.5 75.5 75.2 75.0 75.7 75.2 75.0 75.1 75.7 76.0 74.9 75.3 74.7 75.6 76.0 74.5 74.9 74.9 75.8 75.9 74.4 75.0 75.1 76.0 75.7 74.5 74.8 74.3 76.3 76.2 74.5 74.6 75.0 76.0 76.0 74.1 74.5 75.1 76.0 75.6 74.3 74.2 75.1 76.0 75.6 74.3 74.6 75.1 76.6 75.4 74.3 75.2 75.1 76.4 75.2 74.5 75.2 75.0 75.0 75.9 75.2 75.1 74.9 75.8 75.9 74.4 74.6 74.8 76.1 75.9 74.3 74.7 75.1 76.3 75.4 74.4 74.9 75.0 75.8 75.8 74.6 2017 2018 74.7 75.0 74.7 75.9 74.3 75.1 74.8 74.8 74.6 74.4 74.2 75.2 75.3 75.2 74.6 74.9 74.4 75.2 74.8 N OTE : Estimates from October 2017 through February 2018 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 2. 23 Table 8 A NNUAL P ROPORTIONS IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Item 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 53.2 26.8 5.4 2.6 .2 .8 1.8 52.2 26.2 5.1 2.4 .2 .7 1.8 51.6 25.3 5.1 2.4 .2 .7 1.8 50.8 24.8 5.3 2.5 .2 .7 1.8 52.1 25.4 5.6 2.8 .2 .8 1.9 55.2 27.8 6.3 3.3 .2 .9 2.0 55.5 28.7 6.6 3.5 .2 .9 2.1 54.4 28.0 6.3 3.3 .1 .9 2.0 21.4 16.4 9.1 .3 5.1 1.4 5.0 21.1 15.9 8.7 .3 5.1 1.3 5.2 20.2 15.2 8.5 .2 4.8 1.2 4.9 19.5 14.9 8.5 .2 4.5 1.1 4.7 19.8 15.3 8.7 .2 4.8 1.2 4.5 21.5 16.9 9.6 .2 5.4 1.2 4.5 22.0 17.3 9.9 .2 5.6 1.2 4.7 21.7 16.7 9.7 .2 5.3 1.1 5.0 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 9.3 2.1 2.3 4.9 2.5 9.2 1.9 2.1 5.2 2.3 9.8 2.2 2.2 5.3 2.3 9.6 2.3 2.2 5.1 2.2 9.9 2.6 2.1 5.3 2.2 10.2 2.8 2.2 5.2 2.3 9.7 2.6 2.2 5.0 2.2 9.5 2.5 2.1 4.9 2.1 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.2 9.8 4.1 9.5 4.2 9.1 4.3 8.8 4.5 8.9 4.9 9.2 5.1 9.3 5.1 9.0 46.8 26.9 15.6 2.5 5.3 7.8 11.2 .5 2.1 5.4 20.0 47.8 27.0 16.0 2.5 5.5 7.9 11.0 .4 2.0 5.5 20.8 48.4 26.6 16.0 2.7 5.4 7.8 10.6 .4 2.0 5.3 21.8 49.2 26.1 15.7 2.8 5.1 7.9 10.4 .4 1.9 5.1 23.1 47.9 26.7 16.3 2.9 5.3 8.1 10.4 .4 1.9 5.0 21.2 44.8 27.7 16.8 3.1 5.3 8.4 10.9 .4 2.0 5.2 17.2 44.5 27.9 16.7 3.1 5.0 8.5 11.3 .4 2.0 5.6 16.6 45.6 27.6 16.3 3.0 4.8 8.5 11.3 .4 1.9 5.8 18.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 73.7 70.8 36.3 .9 1.6 2.7 5.1 5.1 6.0 72.8 70.1 36.1 .9 1.6 2.8 5.3 5.5 5.8 72.0 69.6 36.4 1.0 1.6 2.5 5.3 5.8 5.6 70.6 68.3 36.1 1.1 1.7 2.6 5.4 5.5 5.2 72.1 69.8 37.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 5.5 5.8 5.1 76.3 73.9 39.1 1.3 2.1 2.5 5.7 5.6 5.2 77.0 74.7 38.8 1.4 2.2 2.6 5.6 5.2 5.1 75.5 73.4 37.6 1.4 2.2 2.6 5.5 5.3 4.9 335 3361–3 1.8 4.4 1.8 4.2 1.8 4.4 1.7 4.6 1.8 5.1 1.9 5.8 1.9 6.0 1.8 5.6 3364–9 337 339 4.4 1.0 3.2 4.2 1.0 3.0 4.3 1.0 2.8 4.4 1.0 2.8 4.7 1.1 2.8 4.9 1.2 3.0 4.6 1.3 3.0 4.3 1.2 2.7 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.5 11.1 .7 .3 2.6 1.6 3.5 11.7 2.9 34.1 10.6 .7 .3 2.5 1.5 3.9 11.7 2.9 33.2 10.2 .6 .3 2.5 1.4 3.7 11.4 3.0 32.1 10.3 .7 .2 2.5 1.4 3.2 10.8 3.0 32.3 10.5 .7 .2 2.5 1.4 2.8 11.1 3.1 34.7 11.5 .7 .2 2.6 1.5 2.8 12.0 3.5 35.9 11.9 .7 .2 2.6 1.5 2.9 12.4 3.6 35.9 11.7 .6 .2 2.5 1.4 3.4 12.4 3.6 1133,5111 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 21 2211,2 2211 2212 15.9 10.4 9.2 1.2 17.3 9.9 8.7 1.2 18.6 9.4 8.3 1.0 19.9 9.5 8.5 1.1 17.8 10.1 8.9 1.2 13.1 10.7 9.4 1.2 12.2 10.8 9.5 1.3 14.1 10.4 9.0 1.4 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 N OTE : The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to the overall change in IP between the reference year and the following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing between 2015 and 2016 would account for a 0.391 percent increase in total IP. 24 Table 9 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2012=100 Industrial production 2017 Sept.r Dec.r 2018 Jan.r Oct.r Nov.r Total index Previous estimates 103.2 104.9 104.8 106.6 105.3 106.9 105.7 107.4 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 100.3 103.5 98.2 104.8 111.0 104.7 101.3 104.8 98.9 105.5 111.5 107.2 101.1 104.5 99.1 106.0 112.0 108.3 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 101.3 103.2 110.1 99.8 102.7 104.6 111.6 102.9 102.9 104.8 113.8 103.3 Feb.r Oct.r 105.5 107.1 106.5 108.2 .0 .3 1.6 1.6 .5 .3 .4 .5 -.2 -.3 .9 1.1 4.3 4.4 101.4 104.9 98.9 106.8 113.0 108.8 101.8 105.4 99.1 105.6 110.9 108.3 102.2 105.5 99.8 106.5 113.5 109.9 .2 .1 1.0 .4 1.7 -.4 1.0 1.2 .7 .7 .4 2.3 -.2 -.3 .2 .4 .4 1.1 .3 .4 -.2 .8 .9 .4 .4 .4 .2 -1.1 -1.8 -.4 .4 .1 .7 .8 2.3 1.4 3.8 3.4 4.9 1.9 2.2 5.4 102.9 104.8 114.7 106.1 102.7 104.6 113.2 107.2 104.1 105.9 117.2 102.0 -.1 .2 1.3 -.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 3.2 .2 .2 1.9 .4 .0 .1 .8 2.7 -.2 -.2 -1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 3.5 -4.9 2.4 2.5 10.1 10.6 Percent of capacity 200809 2017 2017 low Feb. Sept.r Average 19722017 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high Total industry Previous estimates 79.8 79.8 85.2 85.2 78.8 78.8 85.0 85.0 66.7 66.7 75.1 75.8 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates 78.3 78.3 85.6 85.6 77.3 77.3 84.6 84.6 63.7 63.7 Mining Utilities 87.0 85.3 86.3 92.9 84.3 84.4 88.6 92.9 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.0 80.4 76.9 87.8 86.5 83.4 84.7 78.1 77.3 90.0 87.7 80.7 Capacity utilization Percent change 2018 Nov.r Dec.r Jan.r 2017 Sept.r Feb.r Feb. ’17 to Feb. ’18 Capacity growth Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2018 Jan.r Feb.r Feb. ’17 to Feb. ’18 75.7 76.1 76.8 77.3 77.0 77.5 77.3 77.8 77.0 77.4 77.7 78.1 .9 1.3 74.7 75.6 74.2 75.3 75.2 76.2 75.3 76.3 75.2 76.3 75.0 76.0 75.9 76.9 .8 .8 78.2 78.3 82.0 70.2 85.3 75.2 86.4 77.4 87.9 77.6 88.3 79.6 86.9 80.3 89.7 76.2 .6 1.9 76.4 63.8 66.6 81.5 73.9 74.0 82.5 74.4 74.3 85.4 75.5 74.6 86.6 76.0 74.2 86.8 76.5 74.1 85.6 76.3 74.3 87.7 76.0 75.2 .6 .8 1.2 r Revised. N OTE . The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002, the Federal Reserve reclassified all of its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 25 E XPLANATORY N OTE A Im The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available from the Data Download Program on the Board’s website. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. A Im−1 s P P Im p m Im pm−1 P P = × Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the monthly G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 6 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 6/10 percentage point (0.06 x 10% = 0.6%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s website provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweightssa.txt). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2012. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2012 NAICS codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 74 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 95 percent in the third month, 96 percent in the fourth month, 97 percent in the fifth month, and 97 percent in the sixth month. Data availability by data type in early 2017 is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2017; the numbers may not sum because of rounding.) Month of estimate Source Data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are typically obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production and unit values or sales) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Physical product 32 44 54 55 56 56 Production-worker hours 41 41 41 41 41 41 IP data received 74 85 95 96 97 97 IP data estimated 26 15 5 4 3 3 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first row of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for more than one-half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (32 percent out of a total of 56 percent). Of the 27 percent, about four-fifths (25 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the fourth estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the third estimate of the last month of a quarter, the fourth estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fifth estimate of the first month of a quarter. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-13 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through January 2018; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least December 2017. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Additional documentation and X-13 specifications can be found on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see the Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–2017 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.22 percentage point during the 1987–2017 26 establishments covered by the annual Survey of Plant Capacity (the primary source of factory operating rates through 2006, after which it was discontinued) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve (now based on the QSPC) roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the Census utilization surveys. period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of the change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Perspective. Over the 1972–2017 period, the average total industry utilization rate was 79.8 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate was 78.3 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES References. The release for the annual revision that was published on March 23, 2018, is available on the Board’s website (www.federal reserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). A summary of the annual revision that incorporated back to 1972 production and capacity indexes reclassified according to the North American Industry Classification System is available in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp.151–176. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 89 detailed industries (71 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the NAICS definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing —that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-technology industries and manufacturing excluding high-technology industries. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (for example, paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 27 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity (QSPC); these industries account for about 64 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 9 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Meth/MethCap.htm). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005, March 2006, May 2007, August 2008, August 2009) or in online staff studies (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2010/industrial10.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2012/industrial12.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2013/industrial13.pdf). Release Schedule In 2018, the G.17 will be published at 9:15 a.m. on: January 17, February 15, March 16, April 17, May 16, June 15, July 17, August 15, September 14, October 16, November 16, and December 14. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. This release schedule is available on the Board’s website at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This survey of large companies reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by 27
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