Full text of G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization : December 9, 1997 : Annual Revision

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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
G.17 (419) Supplement

For release at 2:30 p.m. (EST)
December 9,1997

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: A REVISION
The Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IP) and its related measures of capacity and
utilization have been revised principally for the period 1992 to date (chart l). 1 For the third quarter of 1997, the
revision places the production index at 125.2 percent of output in 1992, compared with 121.5 percent reported
previously (table l). 2 The revision places the capacity index at 151.3 percent of output in 1992, compared with
144.6 percent reported previously. The rate of capacity utilization—the ratio of production to capacity—has been
revised downward about 1.3 percentage points, to 82.7 percent in the third quarter of 1997.
The central aspect of the revision is the updating of the comprehensive annual data and of the revised
monthly source data used in the estimation of production, capacity, and utilization. Most important was the 1995
Annual Survey of Manufactures, which provided a stronger picture of the growth in output; a stronger picture also
emerged from the inclusion of BEA's new quality-adjusted annual price index for telephone switching and
switchboard equipment and a more rapid decline in the quality-adjusted price index for semiconductors. More
up-to-date results were obtained from 1995 and 1996 annual industry reports, recent information on prices, and
revised monthly source data on physical products and on labor and electricity inputs. Using the differences
between the new annual and monthly source data, productivity relationships were revised and applied to the
individual monthly source data to determine the final individual production indexes. Along with updating the
individual production series, the annual value-added weights used in aggregating the indexes to market and
industry groups were also updated. The revision of seasonal factors was based on data through mid-1997 or later.
The revisions to capacity and utilization reflect the new IP indexes, updated measures of
manufacturing capital input, new information provided mainly by trade associations on physical capacity and
utilization for selected industries, and, in particular, preliminary results of the 1996 Survey of Plant Capacity
conducted by the Bureau of the Census, which yielded industry utilization rates for the fourth quarters of 1995 and
1996. The new Census data indicated that utilization in manufacturing was lower than the Federal Reserve had
previously estimated; utilization in mining was revised downward as well.
The IP index now shows stronger growth in 1993-97 (table 3). The revised annual rate of growth
averaged 4.5 percent since 1992, 0.7 percentage point higher than previously shown. From mid-1994 to mid-1995,
the new index grew about 2 percentage points faster than formerly. The index, nevertheless, continues to show
some slowing in growth in the first half of 1995 after a surge in 1994. Growth accelerated in 1996 and 1997, even
though upward revisions averaged only about 1/4 percentage point in those years. Among major market groups,

1. In addition, two individual production series and a handful of capacity and utilization measures were modified
between 1987 and 1992. The only substantial change was the restructuring of the production series for oil and gas field
services (discussed below), which was carried back to 1987. This modification affects the levels of the aggregate indexes
that contain this series prior to 1987 because the production indexes are chain linked and are expressed as a percentage of
output in 1992. All aggregate indexes are subject to very small revisions between 1987 and 1992 because of the
aggregation methodology; annual indexes were essentially unaffected.
2. The figures for August through October of this year are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly statistical
releases.



growth has been pervasive and substantial in recent years; only the production of defense and space equipment
declined in 1996 and 1997, and the production of nondurable consumer products continued to grow slowly because
it was held down by weak activity in apparel and tobacco products.
Among industry groups, growth was strongest in durable manufacturing (9.3 percent in 1997), which
was boosted by growth of more than 40 percent in computers and semiconductors (table 4). But strong growth was
not limited to the high-technology industries. The output of transportation equipment grew 10 percent in 1997 as
assembly of commercial aircraft soared and the production of heavy trucks rebounded. With the strength in
durable finished goods and construction activity, the output of primary metals; stone, clay, and glass products; and
lumber rose 4 percent or more.
The upward revisions to the growth in industrial production were smaller than those to the growth in
capacity, particularly in 1996 and 1997. The annual rate of industrial capacity growth has been revised upward
1.5 percentage points in 1995 and 0.8 percentage point in 1996 and 1997 (table 5). The annual rate of capacity
growth in manufacturing has exceeded 5 percent since 1995. The rapid growth and upward revisions were again
concentrated in durable manufacturing, especially in the high-technology industries, in which productivity has
risen rapidly because of technological advances.
Capacity utilization in manufacturing in the third quarter of this year was revised to 81.6 percent, a
level 1.4 percentage points less than the rate previously reported (table 6). Although revised downward a similar
amount, the rate in primary-processing industries was nearly 4 percentage points above its 1967-96 average.
Utilization rates remained above 90 percent in primary metals, paper and products, and petroleum products.
Among advanced processors, utilization rates were below average overall. The capacity utilization rate for mining
was revised downward roughly 3 percentage points, with downward revisions in utilization in oil and gas
extraction, stone and earth minerals, and coal. The rate of utilization in electric utilities is now estimated to be
higher; in the face of deregulation, electric utilities have been reluctant to add new generating capability. The
estimated utilization in gas utilities was revised downward.
TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE REVISION
Changes in Series Structure
The series structure of the index of industrial production, which comprises 264 individual series,
remains essentially unchanged. One series was added, and one was dropped. The measurement of oil and gas field
services has been modified to more completely represent activity in that industry. Previously, a single series based
on the count of rotary rigs running, issued by Baker Hughes, was used for all of SIC 138. Now there are two
series: one for drilling and exploration (SIC 1381,2) and another for miscellaneous oil and gas field services (SIC
1389). The drilling and exploration series continues to be based on the count of rotary rigs running, but a much
larger weight is given to each offshore rig than to a land rig, a difference that reflects the much higher rental cost of
an offshore rig. For miscellaneous oil and gas field services, the production index is based on active well servicing
units reported by Dresser Oil Tools plus workover rigs reported by Baker Hughes. The capacity and utilization
estimates for SIC 138 continue to depend on both the new IP series and a fall survey of active and available rotary
rigs conducted by the Reed Tool Company.
The separate series on defense nuclear materials has been discontinued because of the loss of source
data. The single remaining series for nuclear manufacturing (part of SIC 2819) is based on the amount of
electricity used in the production of such materials.
Weights
The IP index is an annually weighted Fisher index.3 The annual value-added weights for the
aggregation of IP and capacity utilization, which are derived from annual estimates of industry value added, were
updated and extrapolated. The Annual Survey of Manufactures as well as revenue and expense data reported by
the Department of Energy and the American Gas Association provided industry value-added data for
manufacturing and utilities through 1995. The latest value-added data for mining comes from the Census of
2



Mineral Industries for 1992. The weights are expressed as unit value added. Generally, the unit value-added
measures track broad changes in corresponding producer prices. The weights required for aggregating IP in the
most recent period are (1) estimated from available data on producer prices through the most recent year and (2)
given the persistence of many relative price trends, extrapolated for the following year.
Revised Monthly Data
The monthly physical product data that are used to measure the monthly movements of many IP
indexes have been updated to capture data that became available after the closing of the regular four-month
reporting window. Monthly data on production-worker hours or sales of electric power in kilowatt-hours to
industry groups, along with estimates of trends in output per worker-hour or kilowatt-hour, are used to indicate the
monthly change in output for many individual IP indexes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark of the
employment data for March 1996 was incorporated in this revision. Revised data on the sales of electricity to
industries since 1992 were incorporated as well. The monthly kilowatt-hour sales figures were benchmarked to
data on the annual use of electric power reported in the Annual Survey of Manufactures. Data through 1995 were
available for this revision; they resulted in an average downward revision in industrial use of electric power of
0.3 percentage point per year over the 1993 to 1995 period (table 8). Seasonal factors for the electric power series
have been reestimated using data through May 1997.4
Measurement of Capacity
To construct an individual capacity index, we first calculate preliminary, implied end-of-the-year
indexes of capacity by dividing a production index by a utilization rate obtained from a survey for that end-of-year
period. These ratios are expressed, like the indexes of industrial production, as percentages of production in 1992,
and they give the general level and trend of the capacity estimates.
The Census Bureau's survey is the source of utilization rates for most manufacturing industries. The
preliminary results of the Survey of Plant Capacity suggested that utilization rates were lower in recent years than
those previously estimated by the Federal Reserve. Dividing the industrial production indexes, which were
generally revised upward, by the lower-than-expected Census utilization rates yielded a noticeable upward revision
of capacity.5 Compared with the surveys of previous years, the number of plants used for the 1996 survey was
increased about 70 percent—from approximately 10,000 to 17,000. Because of the marked expansion of the
reporting panel, results from panels of respondents who had previously participated in the survey were reviewed.
The final Federal Reserve capacity indexes reflect this review and our efforts to maintain consistency over time. In
the past, increasing the size of the reporting panel and including smaller firms in the sample have tended to lower
the level of reported survey utilization rates.
Once the preliminary implied capacity indexes are calculated, measures of physical capacity or of
capital input are used to estimate and extrapolate the annual movements of the capacity indexes. For most
manufacturing industries, physical measures of capacity are lacking; in these cases, the annual growth in the
capacity estimates is related to the growth in an industry's capital input. The revised capital input measures
incorporate updated BEA estimates of new business investment and deflators by asset type for 1993-97, revised
estimates of manufacturing investment in computers for 1968-97, and revised estimates of manufacturing
investment in different types of structures for 1978-97. The new estimates of computer investment were
developed from sample data collected in conjunction with the Census of Manufactures for 1977, 1982, 1987, and

3. The aggregation procedures are described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol.83 (February 1997), pp.67-92.
4. Seasonal factors for the worker hours were based on data through October; factors for the monthly physical product
series were based on data through June or later in the summer.
5. In contrast with the very preliminary utilization estimates used in earlier annual revisions, which were available only
for roughly two-digit industries, the preliminary estimates incorporated into this annual revision were much more refined,
and they were available at the four-digit level of industry detail.



3

1992, and the new estimates of detailed investment in structures were based on data collected by the Census
Bureau in its 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.

NOTICE
These data were revised primarily from 1992 forward. However, many series were subject to small
changes prior to 1992 and a few series were revised prior to 1987. All the changes prior to 1987 were constant
adjustments to the level of series that include oil and gas field services as a component; no growth rates were altered.
Among the series revised prior to 1987 are the total index, mining, total products, and total equipment. All the revised
data and complete lists of the series revised prior to 1987 are available from the following electronic sources.
Files containing the revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the internet and
through the Economic Bulletin Board of the Department of Commerce. Files containing all the historical data for these
series can be found under "Statistics: Releases and historical data" at http://www.bog.frb.fed.us, the Board's World
Wide Web site. For information about the Economic Bulletin Board of the Department of Commerce, call 202-482-1986.
Diskettes containing either historical data (through 1985) or more recent data (1986 to those most recently
published in the G.17 statistical release) are available from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 (202-452-3245).
A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available
upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551.




1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization
160

Ratio scale, 1992 output = 100
= Revised
= Previous

- , 160

140

140

120

120

100

100
Capacity

90

90

80

80
Production

70

70

60

60

55

55

50




I I I I I I
1975
1970

I

I I I I I I I
1980
1985

I I I I I
1990
1995

Percent of Capacity

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

50

- i 90

Table 1
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: 1987-1997*
TOTAL INDUSTRY
Seasonally ad justed
Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

.5
-.9
.7
.1
J
.1
-.4
.3

.4
.6
.2
-.6
.3
.8
.4
.5
.0
1.1
S

.4
.1
-.6
.4
.8
.2
-.6
.7
.3
.6
.2

.9
.1
-.2
.0
1.2
-.3
.2
.5
.3
.5
.2

.6
.7
-1.0
.0
.1
.7
.4
.5
.0
.0
.8

.1
.5
.4
.2
.1
-.3
-.2
.3
1.0
.3
.5

-.1
-4
-.2
.1
1.0
.5
1.0
.2
.4
.3
.5

1.4
.3
-.5
-.6
-.1
.8
.3
.7
-.4
.0
.4

.3
.8
.4
-1.3
-.1
.5
.4
.8
.2
.8

91.2
96.2
99.0
99.1
95.9
98.3
102.8
106.5
113.4
116.7
122.1

91.6
96.3
100.0
99.6
95.0
99,0
102.9
107.2
113.6
116.3
122.5

92.0
96.8
100.2
99.0
95.4
99.8
103.3
107.7
113.6
117.5
123.1

92.4
96.9
99.6
99.4
96.1
100.0
102.7
108.5
113.9
118.3
123.3

93.2
97.0
99.4
99.3
97.2
99.7
102.9
109.0
114.3
118.9
123.5

93.7
97.6
98.4
99.3
97.3
100.3
103.3
109.6
114.3
118.9
124.5

93.8
98.1
98.8
99.5
97.4
100.0
103.1
109.9
115.4
119.3
125.2

93.7
97.8
98.6
99.6
98.4
100.5
104.1
110.1
115.9
119.6
125.8

95.0
98.0
98.2
99.1
98.3
101.2
104.4
110.9
115.4
119.7
126.3

95.3
98.8
98.6
97.7
98.1
101.8
104.9
111.8
115.6
120.6

95.9
99.3
99.0
97.2
97.5
101.8
105.7
112.9
115.5
120.9

114.0
115.3
116.8
119.2
121.4
123.4
126.1
129,1
| 134.2
I 140.9
147.2

114.1
115.5
117.0
119.3
121.6
123.6
126.3
129.5
134.8
141.4
147.8

114.2
115.6
117.2
119.5
121.7
123.8
126.5
129.9
135,3
142.0
148.4

114.3
115.7
117.4
119.7
121.9
124.1
126.8
130.3
135.9
142.5
149.0

114.4
115.8
117.6
119.9
122.1
124.3
127.0
130.7
136.5
143.0
149.6

114.5
115.9
117.8
120.1
122.2
124.5
127.2
131.2
137.1
143.6
150.2

114.6
116.0
118.0
120.2
122.4
124.8
127.5
131.6
137.6
144.1
150.7

114.7
116.2
118.2
120.4
122.6
125.0
127.7
132.0
138.1
144.6
151.3

114.9
116.3
118.4
120.6
122.7
125.2
128.0
132.4
138.7
145.1
151.9

115.0
116.4
118.6
120.8
122.9
125.4
128.2
132.8
139.2
145.6
152.4

115.1
116.5
118.8
121.0
123.0
125.6
128.5
133.3
139.8
146.1

115.2 114.1
116.7 115.5
119.0 117.0
121.2 119.3
123.2 121.6
125.8 123.6
128.7 126.3
133.7 129.5
140.4 134.8
146.7 141.4
147.8

79.1
83.2
85.4
82.7
79.6
79.2
81.2
82.1
84.6
81.8
82.4

80.0
83.4
84.6
83.0
78.9
79.5
81.4
82.2
84.2
82.5
82.6

80.2
83.3
85.3
83.3
78.1
79.9
'81.3
82.5
83.9
81.9
82.5

80.5
83.7
85.3
82.7
78.2
80.4
81.5
82.7
83.6
82.5
82.6

80.7
83.7
84.7
82.9
78.7
80.4
80.9
83.0
83.5
82.7
82.4

81.4
83.6
84.4
82.7
79.6
80.0
80.9
83.1
83.4
82.8
82.3

81.8
84.1
83.4
82.6
79.5
80.4
81.0
83.3
83.1
82.6
82.6

81.8
84.5
83.6
82.6
79.5
80.0
80.7
83.3
83.6
82.5
82.8

81.6
84.1
83.3
82.6
80.2
80.2
81.4
83.2
83.6
82.4
82.9

82.6
84.2
82.8
82.0
80.0
80.7
81.4
83.5
82.9
82.2
82.9

82.8
84.8
83.0
80.8
79.8
81.0
81.6
83.9
82.7
82.5

Year
Industrial
Production,
Percent
Change
1987
I
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
I
1995
1996
I
1997
industrial
Production
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Capacity
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Utilization
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

~.16

.4

.3

1.2
.3
-.8
.5
-.8
.6
.4
.5
-.1
1.2
.6

90.2
95.9
99.8
98.6
96.7
97.7
102.4
106.0
1-13.5
115.3
121.3

.6
-.5
-.5
.2
.5
.3
.6

~2

»

•\6"
.9
1

Dec.

Q2

Q3

.6
4.2
3.2
.5
3.8
.5
2.0
-.6
-8.3
-.6
1.4
.1
4.4
.8
1.0
6.0
-.1 I
5.9
.3 |
2.0
|
5.2

6.7
3.1
.5
.6
1.5
6.2
1.1
7.1
1.6
7.5
4.6

5.6
3.9
-4.4
1.0
6.2
1.9
2.1
5.5
4.5
3.6
6.2

92.5
96.9
99.7
99.2
96.2
99.8
103.0
108.4
113.9
118.2
123.3

93.8
97.8
98.6
99.5
97.7
100.3
103.5
109.9
115.2
119.3
125.2

95.4
98.7
98.6
98.0
98.0
101.6
105.0
111.9
115.5
120.4

93.2
97.4
99.1
98.9
97.0
100.0
103.6
109.2
114.5
118.5

114.4 114.7
115.8 116.2
117.6 118.2
119.9 120.4
122.1 122.6
124.3 .125.0
127.0 127.7
130.7 132.0
136.5 138.1
143.0 144.6
149.6 151.3

115.1
116.5
118.8
121.0
123.0
125.6
128.5
133.3
139.8
146.1

114.6
116.0
117.9
120.2
122.3
124.6
127.4
131.4
137.3
143.8

82.9
84.7
83.0
81.0
79.6
80.9
81.7
83.9
32.6
82.4

81.3
84.0
84.1
82.3
79.3
80.2
81.3
83.1
83.4
82.4

83.2
85.1
83.2
80.2
79.2
80.9
82.1
84.4
82.3
82.5

91.0
96.1
99.6
99.1
95.9
98.3
102.7
106.6
113.5
116.1
121.9

79.8
83.3
85.1
83.6
78.9
79.5
81.3
82.3
84.2
82.1
82.5

1. Estimates from August 1997 through October 1997 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.




80.8
83.7
84.8
82.8
78.8
80.3
81.1
82.9
83.5
82.7
82.4

81.7
84.2
83.4
82.6
79.7
80.2
81.0
83.2
83.4
82.5
82.7

Q4

Annual2

Q1

7.1
3.6
-.1
-5.8
1.1
5.5 i
5.8
7.5
1.1
3.8

4.6
4.5
1.8
-.2
-2.0
3.1
3.6
5.4
4.9
3.5

Table 2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: 1987-19971
MANUFACTURING
Seasonally adjusted
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

-.8
-.2
.9
-.2
-.9
.4
1.0
.1
.6
-.1
.3

1.6
.4
-1.2
.9
-.7
.7
.2
.6
-.2
1.2
.7

.2
-.1
.8
.3
-1.1
.8
.1
.8
.2
-.6
.4

.5
1.0
.1
-.8
.3
.7
.6
.8
.0
1.4
.4

.3
-.1
-.7
.4
.7
.4
-.5
.8
.2
.6
.2

1.0
.0
.0
-.1
1.4
-.1
.0
.2
.4
.6
.3

.7
.7
-1.1
.0
.2
.6
.4
.7
-.2
.4
.6

89.6
95.4
100.3
98.1
95.8
97.4
102.7
106.2
115.1
116.7
123.5

91.0
95.8
99.1
99.0
95.1
98.1
102.9
106.8
114.9
118.1
124.4

91.2
95.7
99.9
99.3
94.1
98.9
103.0
107.7
115.1
117.4
124.9

91.6
96.7
100.0
98.6
94.4
99.6
103.6
108.5
115.1
119.0
125.4

91.9
96.6
99.4
99.0
95.0
100.0
103.1
109.4
115.3
119.7
125.7

92.8
96.6
99.4
98.9
96.3
99.8
103.1
109.6
115.8
120.4
126.1

93.4
97.3
98.3
98.8
96.6
100.5
103.5
110.4
115.5
120.9
126.9

113.2
115.2
117.0
119.9
122.4
124.6
127.6
130.9
136.6
144.3
151.6

113.4
115.3
117.3
120.1
122.6
124.8
127.8
131.3
137.2
144.9
152.3

113.6
115.4
117.5
120.3
122.8
125.1
128.1
131.8
137.8
145.6
152.9

113.8
115.6
117.8
120.5
123.0
125.3
128.3
132.2
138.5
146.2
153.6

113.9
115.7
118.0
120.7
123.1
125.6
128.6
132.7
139.1
146.8
154.3

114.1
115.8
118.3
120.9
123.3
125.8
128.9
133.2
139.8
147.4
155.0

79.1
82.9
85.7
81.8
78.2
78.2
80.5
81.1
84.3
80.8
81.4

80.2
83.1
84.5
82.5
77.5
78.6
80.5
81.3
83.7
•81.5
81.7

80.3
82.9
85.0
82.6
76.6
79.1
80.4
81.7
83.5
80.6
81.6

80.6
83.7
85.0
81.8
76.8
79.5
80.7
82.1
83.1
81.4
81.6

80.7
83.5
84.2
82.0
77.1
79.6
80.2
82.4
82.9
81.6
81.4

81.4
83.4
84.1
81.8
78.1
79.4
80.0
82.3
82.8
81.7
81.3

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4i

.1
.2
-.3
-.1
1.1
.4
1.1
.3
.7
.3
.2

1.3
.2
-.6
-.6
-.1
.7
.2
.9
-.4
.0
.5

.5
.9
.4
-1.3
-.2
.6
.5
.9
.0
.8

.6
.6
.1
-.6
-.5
-.1
.9
1.0
-.1
.5

5.0
2.3
4.3
2.9
-9.7
2.8
5.0
6.3
6.4
1.5
6.2

7.0
4.1
-.7
-.1
1.2
7.0
1.6
8.8
1.4
8.1
4.9

5.5
3.7
-4.5
.8
7.8
2.4
1.6
6.2
3.9
4.9
6.1

7.6
5.2 j
-1.4
-6.3
1.7 |
5.0

93.3
97.5
98.7
99.1
96.8
100.2
103.2
110.9
116.6
121.1
127.8

93.4
97.7
98.4
99.0
97.8
100.6
104.4
111.2
117.5
121.5
128.1

94.6
97.9
97.8
98.4
97.8
101.3
104.6
112.2
117.0
121.5
128.7

95.1
98.9
98.2
97.2
97.6
101.9
105.2
113.2
117.0
122.5

95.6
99.4
98.3
96.6
97.1
101.7
106.0
114.3
116.9
123.1

90.6
95.6
99.8
98.8
95.0
98.1
102.9
106.9
115.0
117.4
124.2

92.1
96.6
99.6
98.8
95.2
99.8
103.3
109.2
115.4
119.7
125.7

93.4
97.5
98.5
99.0
97.0
100.4
103.7
110.8
116.5
121.1
127.6

95.1
98.7 |
98.1
97.4 I
97.5
101.6
105.3J
113.2
116.9 |
122.4

114.2
116.0
118.5
121.1
123.5
126.1
129.1
133.6
140.4
148.0
155.7

114.4
116.1
118.7
121.3
123.7
126.3
129.4
134.1
141.1
148.6
156.3

114.6
116.3
119.0
121.5
123.8
126.6
129.7
134.6
141.7
149.2
157.0

114.7
116.5
119.2
121.7
124.0
126.8
129.9
135.1
142.4
149.8
157.6

114.9
116.6
119.5
122.0
124.2
127.0
130.2
135.5
143.0
150.4

115.0
116.8
119.7
122.2
124.3
127.3
130.5
136.0
143.7
151.0

113.4
115.3
117.3
120.1
122.6
124.8
127.8
131.3
137.2
144.9
152.3

113.9
115.7
118.0
120.7
123.1
125.6
128.6
132.7
139.2
146.8
154.3

114.4
116.1
118.7
121.3
123.7
126.3
129.4
134.1
141.1
148.6
156.3

114.9 I
116.6
119.5 I
122.0 !
124.2 I
127.0
130.2 !
135.5
143.0
150.4

81.8
83.8
83.0
81.6
78.2
79.7
80.2
82.6
82.3
81.7
81.5

81.5
84.0
83.1
81.7
78.2
79.3
79.8
82.7
82.6
81.5
81.8

81.5
84.0
82.7
81.5
79.0
79.5
80.5
82.6
82.9
81.4
81.6

82.5
84.1
82.1
80.9
78.9
79.9
80.5
83.0
82.2
81.1
81.7

82.8
84.8
82.2
79.7
78.6
80.2
80.8
83.5
81.8
81.5

83.1
85.1
82.1
79.0
78.1
79.9
81.3
84.1
81.3
81.5

79.9
83.0
85.1
82.3
77.5
78.6
80.5
81.4
83.8
81.0
81.6

80.9
83.5
84.4
81.9
77.3
79.5
80.3
82.3
82.9
81.6
81.5

81.6
83.9
82.9
81.6
78.5
79.5
80.1
82.6
82.6
81.5
81.6

82.8
84.7 |
82.1
79.9 |
78.5
80.0
80.8
83.5 I
81.8
81.4

1. Estimates from August 1997 through October 1997 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.




6.2 I
9.0
1.5
4.2

Table 3
RATES OF GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY MAJOR MARKET GROUPS, 1993-19971
"
Revised growth rate
(percent)

Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

3.3

6.5

3.3

4.2

5.3

.4

.8

1.5

.3

.2

2.4
2.3
1.9
9.5
10.6
8.8
.0
-.6
3.3

4.6
4.7
4.4
6.8
6.0
7.4
3.7
5.1
-4.1

1.8
2.2
1.7
.6
-2.1
2.7
2.0
1.3
6.4

3.9
4.0
2.4
3.4
1.6
4.8
2.1
2.0
2.8

4.0
4.5
1.8
4.4
4.9
4.0
1.1
1.0
1.8

.5
-.3
-.8
-1.0
-.7
-.2
-.2
-.1

.3
.4
.5
.3
.3
.2
.5
.6
-.1

.8
.9
.9
-.4
-1.2
.3
1.3
1.6
-.3

.1
-.1
-.1
1.0
.7
1.4
-.5
-.6
.3

.0
-.3
.4
-.4
-.1
-.7
.6
.5
1.1

2.9
4.1
6.7
3.8
-2.3
9.2
-6.1

5.1
8.6
9.8
13.5
-2.5
6.1
-7.6

3.1
5.4
7.7
13.0
-12.8
1.8
-8.6

6.7
8.2
.0
11.8
19.1
4.8
-1.5

9.2
10.9
5.7
12.9
14.8
12.2
-2.9

1.4
.7
.0
1.8
-.2
-.4
.4

.2
.5
.9
2.0
-3.7
.8
.5

.7
.8
.5
.8
£
2.6
-.4

.0
.3
.2
1.1
-2.4
1.2
-.3

-1.2
-.9
-.4
-2.7
.7
1.8
-1.2

2.9
5.9
1.0

4.4
7.2
2.7

.6
-.5
1.2

3.7
5.8
2.4

2.5
1.9
2.9

1.1
.1
1.6

.0
.6
-.3

.5
.3
.6

.7
.1
1.1

.9
-.3
1.7

4.8
8.2
2.4
-.6

9.6
13.9
6.2
2.0

5.4
10.4
-2.4
.8

4.7
6.7
3.7
.4

7.3
11.1
2.9
2.1

.1
.0
.7
.0

1.7
3.0
.3
-.1

2.6
4.7
-.1
-.1

.7
1.2
.9
-.6

.6
.9
.3
.4

Total excluding:
Computers

3.1

6.2

2.7

3.7

4.8

1.6

•D

Business equipment excluding:
Computer and office equipment

3.1

6.9

2.3

5.7

8.7

1.2

1.3

Item

_

_

Total index
Products, total
Final products
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Other durable goods
Nondurable
Nonenergy products
Energy products
Equipment, total
Business equipment
Industrial
Information processing & related
Transit
Other
Defense and space equipment
Intermediate products
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials
Durable
Nondurable
Energy

_

i

-3

SPECIAL AGGREGATES

.7

.7

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1997, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the third
quarter of 1997 and annualized.




8

.1

Table 4
RATES OF GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1993-1997 1
"
SIC

Item

1993

Revised growth rate
(percent)
1994
1995
1996

1997

1993

Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)
1996
1994
1995

1997

Total index

3.3

6.5

3.3

4.2

5.3

.3

.8

1.5

.3

.2

Manufacturing

3.6

7.6

3.3

4.7

5.7

.3

1.1

1.7

.6

.2

Primary processing
Advanced processing

4.2
3.3

6.6
8.0

-.4
5.1

3.5
5.2

3.3
6.9

.2
.3

.4
1.3

.5
2.3

.6
.4

.1
.2

Durable
Lumber and products
24
Furniture and fixtures
25 I
Stone, clay, and glass products 32

5.9
2.0
3.1
4.0

9.9
5.0
5.3
5.6

6.2
1.2
.4
1.5

6.5
2.8
7.3
3.8

9.3
4.1
3.0
4.8

-•23
~-

•1

1.7
.9
1.4
.9

2.5
1.3
2.1
2.0

.8
.1
4.8
1.9

.1
.4
1.3
2.1

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2 |
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333-6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors
3672-9

7.4
8.9
5.7
5.4
4.4

8.9
7.8
6.2
10.4
9.0

-.4
-.9
.7
.2
1.2

3.5
2.2
-1.7
4.9
3.2

5.0
3.1
7.0
7.3
2.1

•2
-•1

•1
.5
-.2

.5
.8
.1
.1
.5

.5
.3
.1
.9
.3

-.2
-.2
.0
-.3
.5

.3
.3
-.3
.5
-.5

11.6
18.9
10.4
16.5

15.3
30.5
27.2
55.0

12.4
37.8
25.7
59.3

7.6
36.5
12.6
25.5

12.6
40.2
19.2
43.4

-.4
-1.2
1.8
.0

.6
-.7
8.6
17.7

.7
-2.9
9.8
22.9

-2.4
-.9
5.5
9.5

-2.4
3.3
2.6
9.6

37
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
371
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
372-6,9
Instruments
38
Miscellaneous
39

4.5
17.5
13.2
-9.0
-1.8
5.7

1.3
7.8
5.1
-7.1
.7
3.9

-5.3
-1.6
-4.5
-10.8
1.9
3.3

5.5
-1.4
1.0
17.0
4.2
5.2

10.0
8.3
4.2
12.4
3.1
5.9

-.3
-.5
-.4
-.1
-.1
.2

.1
1.0
-.6
-1.1
-.5
1.3

.8
1.4
-1.2
-.2
1.4
2.4

-1.0
.2
1.4
-1.9
1.5
2.0

.3
1.2
-.4
-.6
-.5
1.5

20
21
22
23
26

1.0
1.6
-16.3
4.8
1.7
6.6

4.9
2.4
43.5
6.0
6.6
4.6

-.1
1.6
-5.2
-5.1
-4.5
-2.8

2.5
1.7
2.4
.1
-3.4
2.3

1.6
1.6
-1.4
4.2
-2.2
4.9

.5
.0
.0
-.3
-.5
.1

.3
.3
3.0
.1
1.4
-.1

.8
.8
3.6
.4
3.1
-.2

.2
-.4
-.2
-.4
-.6
.6

.4
.6
.9
-.2
-.4
-.3

27
28
29
30
31

-.5
-1.0
2.6
6.7
-3.3

1.2
4.7
-1.0
9.6
-8.9

.0
2.1
.5
.0
-11.0

1.6
5.4
3.3
3.4
-4.0

1.5
.6
2.8
3.4
-8.2

2.1
.4
-.2
.3
.5

.0
.1
-.1
.1
-.6

1.3
.5
.1
.5
-2.1

1.2
.4
-.2
.9
.7

1.3
.5
.1
-.7
-.2

10
12
13
14

1.7
2.5
-3.1
2.2
5.7

.9
-3.1
9.2
-1.2
6.9

-.8
4.5
-.1
-1.5
-1.2

1.7
3.3
2.5
.9
5.4

3.4
-1.7
2.6
4.3 i
1.9

2.0
.3
.2
2.8
.1

-.7
-.1
.3
-.9
-.1

.5
-.2
.1
1.0
-1.4

-1.7
1.6
-1.6
-2.1
-1.5

-.3
-.2
-.4
-.6
1.2

491,3pt
492,3pt

2.0
1.1
5.2

-.3
1.7
-7.7

6.4
5.3
10.8

1.5
1.0
3.1

2.3
3.2
-.8

.0
.1
-.3

-.2
-.2
-.5

-.1
.0
-.1

.1
.1
.0

1.1
.6
2.3

3.3

7.1

2.6

4.0

5.1

.3

1.1

1.9

.7

.5

Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas

-.2

SPECIAL AGGREGATES
Manufacturing excluding:
Computer and office equipment

I

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1997, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the third
quarter of 1997 and annualized.
Note—Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and
fertilizers, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass
products. Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and
other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment, electrical
machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures.




Table 5
RATES OF GROWTH IN CAPACITY, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1993-199?1

SIC

Item

1993

Total index

2.3

Manufacturing

Revised growth rate
(percent)
1996
1994
1995

1997

4.5

4.7

3.7

4.9

Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)
1993
1994
1995
1996

1997

.5

.9

1.5

.8

.8

2.5

4.1

5.5

5.1

5.3

.5

1.0

1.8

1.0

1.0

Primary processing
Advanced processing

1.4
3.0

2.3
5.0

2.9
6.8

3.3
5.9

3.4
6.3

.2
.6

.3
1.4

.8
2.3

1.0
1.1

1.0
1.0

Durable
Lumber and products
24
Furniture and fixtures
'25
Stone, clay, and glass products 32

3.1
.7
2.2
.0

5.9
2.9
2.5
.8

8.3
3.9
3.9
2.3

7.5
4.4
5.8
3.3

8.0 !
4.0
4.9
3.7 I

•4
1.0
1

-5

"-

1.8
.4
1.1
-.1

2.8
1.7
2.6
1.1

1.3
1.6
3.6
1.1

1.4
.8
2.6
1.3

Primary metals
33
Iron and stee!
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333-8,9
Fabricated metal products
34
industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors
3672-9

-.4
-1.0
-4.2
.4
2.4

2.4
2.8
.9
2.0
2.6

2.5
1.6
3.1
3.5
4.0

3.6
4.3
2.8
2.8
4.7

3.8
3.9
5.8
3.7
5.1

-.2
.0
.0
-.5
1.0

1.1
.0
.0
2.3
1.1

.7
-.3
.0
1.9
1.3

.3
-.2
1.6
1.0
1.8

.3
.2
-.2
.3
2.4

4.8
20.0
10.2
22.7

8.3
21.8
18.3
41.2

10.8
31.2
25.9
56.0

11.4
39.9
19.3
31.8

11.6
41.0
19.2
36.8

.1
1.0
2.1
2.1

2.0
-.9
6.6
13.9

1.8
2.2
9.4
20.9

.0
3.8
2.8
2.1

-1.1
1.4
3.7
8.0

Transportation equipment
37
Motor vehicles and parts
371
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
372 -6,9
Instruments
38
Miscellaneous
39

.6
2.6
.2
-1.8
1.2
2.0

3.2
7.1
5.2
-1.1
.1
1.9

3.8
8.1
5.9
-1.2
.5
2.8

2.4
4.7
1.2
-.8
.8
3.2

3.3
4.6
2.3
1.9
1.8
3.2

-.1
-.3
.2
.1
.7
.6

.2
-.4
-.3
1.0
.0
.5

1.0
.9
.0
1.3
.4
1.4

1.1
1.3
-.6
.7
.8
1.8

1.6
3.1
.1
-.2
1.4
1.6

1.9
1.9
2.8
.8
2.0

2.0
2.1
3.8
1.5
1.4

2.3
2.9
3.2
2.2
2.4

2.4
2.6
2.1
.3
2.4

2.2
2.4
1.8
.0
1.8

.4
.0
.2
.3
-.4

.2
.1
.2
1.0
-.1

.7

20
22
23
26

.8
-.9
-.8
.5

.7
.7
-.3
-1.0
.8

.6
.6
1.2
-.1
.8

27
28
29
30
31

.1
3.2
-.6
3.5
-2.5

.7
2.8
1.9
4.3
-2.1

.8
2.7
-.2
5.1
-2.5

.9
3.6
.3
4.5
-2.3

.7
3.3
1.7
4.2
-2.7

.9
1.0
.0
.2
-.4

.8
-.2
.0
.1
-.4

.9
.7
.0
2.8
-.7

1.5
.2
.0
2.8
-.9

1.4
.0
.8
1.4
.0

10
12
13
14

.7
1.5
1.7
-.2
4.2

1.0
-1.6
4.1
.3
2.4

-.5
.8
-.3
-1.0
2.4

.2
.7
1.0
-.3
3.4

.7
.7
1.7
.2
4.0

1.2
-.2
.3
1.4
2.3

.4
.0
-.2
.4
1.4

.0
.0
.6
-.2
.5

.6
-.4
.2
.8
1.6

-.7
-.3
.4
-1.2
1.7

491,3pt
492!,3pt

.7
1.4
.2

1.3
1.0
.4

2.0
2.6
.5

1.5
1.6
2.1

1.4
1.3
1.9

.0
.0
.0

.1
.0
.0

.1
.4
.0

-.6
-.9
1.3

-.2
-.5
1.4

Total excluding:
Computer and office equipment

2.0

3.4

4.5

4.0

4.1

1.0

1.6

1.0

1.1

Manufacturing excluding:
Computer and office equipment

2.2

3.7

5.0

4.5

4.6

1.1

1.9

1.2

1.3

Nondurable
Foods
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas
SPECIAL AGGREGATES

.5

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading.
Note—Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and
fertilizers, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass
products. Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and
other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment, electrical
machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures.




10

Table 6
REVISED AND EARLIER CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
I
Revised rate

Difference between
revised and earlier rates
(percentape points)

19671996
Ave.

19881989
Hiah

19901991
Low

1995
Q4

1996
Q4

1997
Q3

1995
Q4

1996
Q4

1997
Q3

Total Index

82.1

85.4

78.1

82.6

82.4

82.7

-.5

-.9

-1.3

Manufacturing

81.1

85.7

76.6

81.8

81.4

81.6

-.5

-.9

-1.4

Primary processing
Advanced processing

82.3
80.5

88.9
84.2

77.7
76.1

85.8
80.0

85.9
79.4

85.8
79.8

-.4
-.6

-.7
-1.0

-1.3
-1.5

Durable
24
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
25
Stone, clay and glass productsJ 32

79.4
82.6
81.6
78.1

84.6
93.6
86.6
83.5

73.1
75.5
72.5
69.7

81.2
84.0
79.9
80.9

80.4
82.7
81.0
81.3

81.1
82.7
79.9
82.0

-.8
-7
-1.4
1.6

-1.3
-2.0
-.5
2.2

-2.1
-2.3
-1.2
2.7

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333-6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors
3672-9

80.8
80.7
80.6
81.2
77.9

92.7
95.2
92.7
89.3
82.0

73.7
71.8
71.5
74.2
71.9

90.8
92.0
92.7
89.7
81.8

90.7
90.2
88.7
91.5
80.6

91.5
89.7 I
89.5
93.9
78.9

-.3

1-32
•

-2.1
-2.6

-.7
1.3
-1.2
-3.2
-3.6

-.7
1,4
-1.5
-3.3
-5.2

81.3
81.0
81.0
79.6

85.4
86.9
84.0
81.0

72.3
66.9
75.0
75.5

87.8
84.6
87.0
87.6

84.9
82.5
82.0
83.3

85.4
82.1 !
82.0
86.5

-2.4
-5.1
-.3
-.6

-4.2
-8.1
1.8
4.4

-5.2
-7.2
1.2
5.3

75.8
76.6
75.1
81.7
75.2

85.8
89.1
92.3
87.3
81.4
79.0

68.5
55.9
53.3
79.2
77.2
71.7

69.8
76.6
76.7
60.6
76.8
77.7

71.8
72.1
76.6
71.5
79.5
79.2

75.3
74.0
77.7
77.0
80.3
80.8

.4
1.9
-1.1
-1.9
-.7
.1

-1.1
1.1
.5
-4.0
-.3
.2

-1.8
.1
.2
-4.6
-1.4
.1

20
22
23
26

83.4
83.0
85.5
81.2
89.3

87.3
85.4
90.4
85.1
93.5

80.7
82.7
77.7
75.5
85.0

82.4
81.6
84.1
79.8
88.6

82.5
80.9
82.5
76.8
88.5

82.2
80.4
83.9
75.5
90.5

-.1
.1
.5
2.4
-.4

-.5
-.8
.4
2.5
-.6

-.6
-.7
-.4
2.3
-1.3

27
28
29
30
31

85.8
79.5
86.3
84.8
81.2

91.7
86.2
88.5
89.6
83.3

79.6
79.3
85.1
77.4
76.1

80.9
78.4
91.7
88.8
72.5

81.4
79.7
94.4
87.9
71.3

81.9
78.2

-.5
-.5
-.1
-2.1
-.5

-.7
-.3
-.2
-3.8
.7

-.8
.0
-.7
-5.2
.6

10
12
13
14

87.5
78.6
86.9
88.5
84.8

88.0
89.4
91.5
88.2
89.0

87.0
79.9
83.4
88.7
79.4

87.0
88.2
84.9
87.7
85.1

88.3
90.5
86.2
88.7
86.8

91.4
85.5

-1.0
.5
.0
-.7
-6.0

-3.0
2.2
-1.4
-3.2
-9.0

-2.9
2.3
-2.0
-3.1
-9.2

491,3pt
492,3pt

87.2
89.1
82.4

92:6
95.0
85.0

83.4
87.1
67.1

90.0
91.4
84.4

90.0
90.9
85.3

90.6
92.1
83.5

-.3
-.4
-.8

.2
.5
-1.9

1.1
1.3
-1.2

Total excluding:
Computer and office equipment

82.1

85.5

78.3

82.6

82.4

82.8

-.4

-.7

-1.1

Manufacturing excluding:
Computer and office equipment

81.1

85.8

76.8

81.7

81.4

81.6

-.4

-.7

-1.2

Item

SIC

Transportation equipment
37
371
Motor vehicles and parts
1
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
372-6,9
Instruments
38
39
Miscellaneous
Nondurable
Foods
Textile mil! products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas

95.2 I
87.4 |
68.2
90.0
89.0

86.8 I

"

SFECIALj&GGREGATES

1. Series begins in 1977.
Note—The "high" column refers to periods in which utilization generally peaked; the "low" column refers to recession years in which utilization
generally bottomed out. The monthly highs and lows are specific to each series, and all did not occur in the same month.




11

Table 7
ANNUAL PROPORTIONS IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS
1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

84.5

84.4

84.5

85.4

85.9

86.6

86.5

85.9

27.6
56.9

26.8
57.6

26.1
58.4

26.6
58.8

27.0
58.9

28.2
58.4

28.2
58.3

27.6
58.3

Durable
Lumber and products
24
Furniture and fixtures
25
Stone, clay, and glass products 32

45.7
1.9
1.4
2.2

44.8
1.8
1.4
2.2

44.2
1.8
1.3
2.1

44.9
2.1
1.4
2.1

45.6
2.2
1.4
2.1

46.2
2.2
1.4
2.2

46.1
2.1
1.3
2.2

46.1
2.1
1.4
2.2

33
Primary metals
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333-6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors
3672-9

3.5
2.0
.1
1.5
5.2

3.3
1.9
.1
1.4
5.1

3.1
1.7
.1
1.4
4.9

3.1
1.8
.1
1.4
5.0

3.3
1.9
.1
1.4
5.1

3.5
2.0
.1
1.6
5.2

3.5
1.9
.1
1.6
5.2

3.4
1.8
.1
1.6
5.3

8.6
2.1
6.8
2.2

8.3
1.8
6.7
2.2

7.9
1.6
6.8
2.3

7.8
1.6
7.1
2.5

8.1
1.6
7.3
2.6

8.3
1.6
7.8
2.8

8.6
1.6
8.4
3.4

8.7
1.6
8.4
3.3

37
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
371
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
372-6,9
Instruments
38
Miscellaneous
39

9.7
4.8
2.7
4.9
5.1
1.3

9.7
4.7
2.7
5.0
5.1
1.3

9.6
4.6
2.6
5.0
5.4
1.3

9.4
4.7
2.5
4.7
5.4
1.3

9.5
5.1
2.6
4.4
5.3
1.3

9.3
5.5
2.8
3.8
4.9
1.3

8.8
5.4
2.7
3.4
4.7
1.3

8.6
5.1
2.6
3.5
4.8
1.3

20
21
22
23
26

38.8
8.7
1.3
1.8
2.1
3.9

39.6
9.0
1.5
1.7
2.1
3.7

40.3
9.4
1.6
1.7
2.2
3.7

40.6
9.6
1.6
1.8
2.2
3.5

40.2
9.6
1.1
1.8
2.1
3.4

40.4
9.3
1.2
1.8
2.1
3.8

40.4
9.4
1.3
1.7
2.0
3.9

39.8
9.4
1.3
1.6
1.9
3.5

27
28
29
30
31

6.4
9.5
1.7
3.1
.3

6.7
9.8
1.6
3.2
.3

6.8
9.9
1.5
3.3
.3

6.8
10.0
1.4
3.5
.3

6.8
9.9
1.5
3.6
.3

6.6
10.0
1.6
3.8
.2

6.5
10.0
1.7
3.7
.2

6.5
10.0
1.8
3.7
.2

10
12
13
14!

7.7
.5
1.1
5.5
.6

7.9
.5
1.2
5.6
.6

7.5
.5
1.1
5.3
.6

6.8
.5
1.0
4.8
.6

6.4
.4
.9
4.4
.6

6.0
.5
.9
4.0
.6

6.0
.5
.9
4.1
.6

6.4
.4
.9
4.5
.6

7.8
6.2
1.6

7.7
6.3
1.5

8.0
6.5
1.5

7.8
6.2
1.6

7.7
6.1
1.6

7.4
5.9
1.6

7.5
5.9
1.5

7.7
6.1
1.6

Item

SIC

Total index
Manufacturing
Primary processing
Advanced processing

!

Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas

*

491,3pt
492,3pt

Note- The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries' relative contributions to overall IP growth in the following year. For example, a 1
percent increase in durable goods manufacturing in 1997 would account for a 0.461 percent increase in total IP.




12

Table 8
RATES OF GROWTH IN ELECTRIC POWER USE, 1993-1997 1
Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)

Revised growth rate
(percent)
1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

-.1

4.7

-1.1

1.0

.0

-.3

-.2

-.4

.0

.2

.1

4.9

-1.2

.9

.1

-.3

-.2

-.4

.0

.3

.1

3.3

.1

-.9

2.6

-.4

-.3

-.6

-.3

-.8

24
25
32
33
34

5.1
7.0
1.3
-2.7
3.0

2.9
7.2
1.5
3.0
5.1

2.0
-3.3
-.2
.2
-.2

5.1
4.4
3.0
-6.1
3.5

4.6
.5
.8
5.3
1.4

-1.2
-.7
-1.1
.0
-1.0

.4
1.5
-.1
-.1
-.7

-1.1
-.2
-.2
-.7
.5

1.1
2.2
.1
-.8
.7

-1.8
-4.2
-.2
.0
-1.0

35
36
37
38
39

.4
2.8
1.3
-1.6
4.4

3.6
2.2
4.5
1.0
11.2

-.1
2.4
-1.1
-.6
-3.6

1.6
3.6
.3
-3.6
8.3

2.2
.3
.3
.1
1.9

-1.1
-.7
.7
-.8
-1.5

-.2
-2.2
.9
-1.5
-1.9

-.2
-2.1
-.3
-.4
-.7

1.0
-1.5
-.1
-.7
-1.7

-2.3
-.3
-1.3
-2.5
-1.2

.1

6.2

-2.3

2.3

-1.9

-.2

-.2

-.2

.3

1.0

3.0
-.8
4.1
3.9
-.2
1.8
-2.8
.8
5.9
-5.9

3.5
-5.2
5.4
6.3
2.8
3.7
9.4
2.7
8.7
-2.9

1.6
7.5
-3.2
-6.7
-.6
.7
-6.6
6.2
-.2
-10.0

1.1
1.9
2.6
-2.6
.3
.5
5.5
-4.5
3.6
3.1

-.3
-.9
1.5
-8.3
-1.9
.3
-4.1
.4
.2
-4.7

-.7
2.8
-.3
3.2
.1
-.6
.3
-1.8
-1.0
-1.0

-1.4
.5
.7
1.2
.1
-1.2
.1
-.9
-.5
-1.6

-.7
-1.3
.3
-3.6
-.4
-.8
-.1
1.2
-1.1
-5.0

-.8
-2.3
.8
-1.2
.2
-.8
.9
-.9
.5
1.3

-.3
1.4
-1.1
-7.8
2.0
1.1
1.9
.9
-.3
-3.9

-2.1

2.2

1.0

2.4

-.4

-.1

.1

-.1

.3

-.5

-.7
-10.4
1.3
-1.2

5.9
7.5
-4.8
7.4

8.7
-1.2
-5.0
5.2

2.7
.0
3.0
3.4

-1.7
1.3 j
-1
-.8

.0
.0
-.4
.1

.1
.0
.0
.2

-.7
.6
.0
-.3

.2
.1
.8
-.5

-.6
.6
-1.0
-.5

.3
.0
-1.6

3.5
4.9
1.6

.3
-1.5
4.9

.5
1.6
-57

1.0
•3
-.6

-.3
-.3
.2

-.2
-.2
.3

-.4
-.4
.2

.0
.2
-.1

.0
.2
-1.6

Item
Total
Manufacturing
Durable
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, & glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Industrial machinery
and equipment
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

20
21
22
23
26
27
28
29
30
31

Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

10
12
13
14

SUPPLEMENTARY GROUPS
Total, excluding nuclear nondefense |
Utility sales to industry
Industrial generation

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1997, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the third
quarter of 1997 and annualized.




13

Explanatory Note
The statistical release of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports
measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on
the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. Data in the release and
historical data are available under statistical releases at http://www.bog.frb.fed.us,
the Board's World Wide Web site. These data are also available on line on the day of
issue through the Economic Bulletin Board of the Department of Commerce. For
information, call (202) 482-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data
published in this release are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, Publications Services, (20?) 452-3245.
Industrial

Production

Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures output in the
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period
for the index is 1992. For the period since 1992, the total IP index has been
constructed from 264 individual series based on the 1987 Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC). These individual seriesare classified in two ways: (1) market
groups (shown in table 1), such as consumer goods, equipment, intermediate
products, and materials; and (2) industry groups (shown in tables 2 and 6), such as
two-digit SIC industries and major aggregates of these industries—for example,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities,
Market groups. For purposes of analysis, the individual IP series are grouped into
final products, intermediate products, and materials. Final products are assumed to be
purchased by consumers, businesses, or government for final use. Intermediate
products are expected to become inputs in nonindustrial sectors, such as
construction, agriculture, and services. Materials are industrial output requiring
further processing within me industrial sector. Total products comprise final and
intermediate products, and final products are divided into consumer goods and
equipment.
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the
following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript "p" in
tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source
data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript "r" in
tables.) After the fourth month, indexes are not revised further until the time of an
annual revision or a benchmark revision. The last three benchmark revisions were
published in 1990, 1985, and 1976.
Source data. In annual or benchmark revisions, the individual IP indexes are
constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of
Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures,
prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the
Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. On a
monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from
two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on
inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical
products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade
associations as well as from government agencies including those listed above; data
of this type are used to estimate monthly IP where possible and appropriate. When
suitable data on physical product are unavailable, estimates of output are based on
either production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours
worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey
conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are
described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are
based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive data used
to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological
or cyclical developments. Especially for the first and second estimates for a given
month, the available source data are limited and subject to revision.
Weights. In the index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are
weighted according to their proportion in the total value-added output of all
industries. The industrial production index, which extends back to 1919, is built as an
annually weighted chain-type index since 1977. The components of IP are combined
using estimates of value added per unit of output. For months from January to June,
the weights are drawn from the year containing the month being estimated and the
preceding year; for months from July to December, the weights are drawn from the
current and following year. The IP proportions shown in column 1 of tables 1A, 2 A,
and 6 are estimates of the industries' relative contributions to overall growth in the
following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing in
1997 would account for an increase in total IP of nearly 1/2 percent.

from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987-96
period. In most cases (about 81 percent), the direction of change in output indicated
by thefirstestimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes,
and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes
shown in the release.

Capacity Utilization
Definition. Capacity utilization is calculated for the manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities industries. For a given industry, the utilization rate is equal to
an output index divided by a capacity index. Output is measured by seasonally
adjusted indexes of industrial production. The capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable practical capacity, which is defined as the greatest level of
output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule,
taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to
operate the machinery and equipment in place. The 76 individual capacity indexes
are based on a variety of data, including capacity data measured in physical units
compiled by trade associations, surveys of utilization rates and investment, and
estimates of growth of the capital input.
Groups. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups,
including primary and advanced processing industries within manufacturing,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and
total industry. Component industries of the primary and advanced processing groups
within manufacturing are listed in the note on tables 2 and 3 of the release.
Weights. Although each utilization rate is the result of dividing an IP series by a
corresponding capacity index, aggregate utilization rates are equivalent to
combinations of individual utilization rates aggregated with proportions that reflect
current capacity levels of output valued in current-period value added per unit of
actual output. The implied proportions of individual industry operating rates in the
rate for total industry for the most recent year are shown in the first column of table 3.
Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables
above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial
plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent:
none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime.
Electric

Power

Data on electric power (expressed in kilowatt hours) are collected by the Federal
Reserve District Banks from electric utilities and aiso from manufacturing and
mining establishments that generate electric power for their own use (cogenerators).
The indexes of power use shown in table 9 are sums of kilowatt hours used by an
industry or industry group expressed as a percentage of that industry's or group's
usage in 1992. The first column of the table shows, for reference, electric power use
in billions of kilowatt hours as reported by manufacturing and mining industries in
the 1992 censuses of those industries. The supplementary group, "Total, less nuclear
nondefense," is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the
nondefense nuclear material series (part of SIC 2819) in total IP is considerably
smaller than its share of total electric power use. Excluding this component from total
power use facilitates comparisons with total IP.
References
This annual revision will be described more completely in the February 1998 Federal
Reserve Bulletin.
A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity
utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February
1997), pp. 67-92. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed
description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. To obtain
Industrial Production—1986 Edition ($9.00 per copy), write to Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, Washington, DC 20551. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been
described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March
1994, January 1995, January 1996, and February 1997). The basic methodology
used to estimate capacity and utilization is discussed in the June 1990 Federal
Reserve Bulletin.

Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted by the X-l 1ARIMA
method, developed at Statistics Canada. For series based on production-worker
hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 1997;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 1997. In
some cases, series were preadjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle
before using X - l l ARIMA. For the data since 1977, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of
the individual series.

Release Schedule for 1998

Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to
sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.28 percent during the 1987-96
period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign,

At 9:15 a.m. on January 16, February 17, March 17, April 17, May 15, June 16, July
16, August 14, September 16, October 16, November 16, and December 16.




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