The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) December 17, 2002 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in November after a revised drop of 0.6 percent in October. At 110.8 percent of its 1997 average, output was 1.8 percent above its level in November 2001. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in November; the increase was led by a sharp rebound in the production of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output declined 0.3 percent in both November and October. Capacity utilization for total industry edged up to 75.6 percent, a level 0.5 percentage point above that of November 2001 and 5.9 percentage points below its 1972–2001 average. (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 1997=100 Percent change Industrial production 2002 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p Total index Previous estimates 111.3 111.3 111.3 111.3 110.7 110.4 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 107.6 107.8 108.1 115.4 104.8 113.6 107.6 108.1 106.8 115.8 104.8 113.4 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 112.4 112.3 93.9 110.4 112.2 112.1 92.1 113.3 Capacity utilization Average 1972–2001 2002 Aug.r Sept.r 110.8 -.2 -.2 .0 .0 -.6 -.8 .1 1.8 106.9 107.3 106.1 115.3 104.5 112.7 107.4 108.2 105.6 114.7 103.5 112.8 -.3 -.7 .7 -.2 .4 -.2 .0 .3 -1.1 .4 -.1 -.2 -.6 -.7 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.6 .4 .8 -.4 -.5 -.9 .1 .9 2.6 -3.7 1.6 .6 2.8 111.7 111.3 92.0 111.3 111.7 .1 .0 -.5 -2.9 -.2 -.2 -1.9 2.7 -.5 -.7 -.2 -1.8 .1 1.4 1.3 .0 -2.8 8.4 Capacity growth Nov. ’01 to Nov. ’02 1982 low 1988–89 high 93.2 111.3 Percent of capacity 2001 2002 Nov. Aug.r Oct.r Nov.p Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p Nov. ’01 to Nov. ’02 Total industry Previous estimates 81.5 70.8 85.1 75.1 75.1 76.1 76.1 76.1 76.1 75.5 75.4 75.6 1.1 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 80.4 68.6 85.5 73.4 74.3 74.2 73.8 73.8 .9 87.0 86.7 78.6 77.2 85.6 92.6 86.8 84.3 85.3 86.5 83.7 88.4 83.5 86.3 84.6 85.9 -.2 6.5 86.5 82.4 78.7 77.2 67.9 71.3 88.6 86.2 83.1 83.2 76.2 72.0 83.9 78.4 71.7 83.0 78.6 71.5 82.5 78.0 71.0 83.0 77.8 71.2 -.6 1.6 .9 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished NOTE– The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the industrial sector, which the Federal Reserve defines as manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Market Groups The output of consumer goods rose 0.8 percent in November. A 2.8 percent rise in the production of durables was led by a 4.6 percent increase in automotive products. The index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting moved up 0.8 percent. A 1.3 percent rise in the output of energy products pulled up the nondurable consumer goods category, which edged up 0.1 percent. The production of nondurable non-energy products slipped 0.1 percent; declines in the output indexes for foods and tobacco and for paper products more than offset increases in the output of chemical products and clothing. The production of business equipment declined 0.4 percent. An increase in the production of information processing equipment was more than offset by further decreases in industrial and other equipment and in transit equipment. Declines in the production of heavy trucks, medium trucks, and commercial aircraft contributed to a 1.2 percent reduction in the output of transit equipment; the index was 15.7 percent lower than its level in November 2001. The output of defense and space equipment edged up further and was more than 3 percent higher than its year-ago level. After having changed little, on balance, over the previous few months, the output of construction supplies dropped 0.9 percent. The production of business supplies dipped 0.2 percent. The production of industrial materials rose 0.1 percent. Both the durable and nondurable groups had slight declines, but energy materials increased 0.8 percent. A bounceback in the extraction of oil and natural gas, which had been curtailed in September and October by storms in the Gulf Coast region, more than accounted for the November gain. Industry Groups Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in November. The overall factory operating rate held even at 73.8 percent, a level 0.4 percentage point above its year-ago level and 6.6 percentage points below its 1972–2001 average. Bolstered by a 3.9 percent increase in the production of motor vehicles and parts, the output of durable goods rose 0.3 percent. In the motor vehicles category, the indexes for both autos and light trucks registered large increases, while the index for medium and heavy trucks registered a sizable decline. Among other durable goods categories, the indexes for computer and electronic products and for electrical equipment, appliances, and components registered gains, while the indexes for all other major categories fell. The largest declines were for fabricated metal products, wood products, primary metals, and aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment. Among nondurables, a 3.3 percent increase in the output of petroleum and coal products reversed the large declines in the two preceding months. Increases in the output of distillate fuel oil and automotive gasoline were largely responsible for the rise. The index for plastics and rubber products fell 1.2 percent, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. The production of other manufacturing industries (publishing and logging) decreased 0.7 percent. Production at mines climbed 1.3 percent in November; the utilization rate rose 1.1 percentage points, to 84.6 percent, a level 2.4 percentage points below its 1972–2001 average. The output of utilities was unchanged. The operating rate at utilities fell 0.4 percentage point; at 85.9 percent, the rate is 1.6 percentage points above its year-ago level and 0.8 percentage point below its 1972–2001 average. Looking across stage-of-process groups, utilization rose 0.5 percentage point for industries in the crude category, fell 0.2 percentage point for operators at the primary and semifinished level of processing, and edged up 0.2 percentage point for processors of finished goods. [In Text Box :] Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization On December 5, the Federal Reserve Board published a revision to the index of industrial production (IP), the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization, and the data on industrial use of electric power. The revised estimates are classified according to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); previously, the estimates from 1987 forward were classified according to the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. NAICS changes the SIC system’s industry composition of manufacturing. To preserve the continuity of the production, capacity, and utilization rate measures featured in the Federal Reserve’s G.17 statistical release, portions of SIC 27 (printing and publishing) and SIC 24 (lumber and products) that are not classified in manufacturing under NAICS continue to be included in the overall IP index and capacity utilization. 2 The revised production indexes are based on annual output measures that were constructed by reclassifying the establishments in historical Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries under NAICS; annual output indexes constructed this way maximize the reliability and historical consistency of the IP industry detail. Data going back to 1972 were restated using NAICS. The monthly indicators used in current IP indexes were incorporated into the revised IP indexes as far back as the data allow. The revised indexes are now expressed as percentages of output in 1997, beginning at the start date of each index: 1919 for total and manufacturing IP, 1948 for manufacturing capacity, and 1967 for total industrial capacity. The Federal Reserve’s accompanying indexes of industrial electric power use, which began in 1972, also were restated to accord with NAICS, rebased to use 1997 as a comparison year, and revised to incorporate previously unavailable data. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions. The updating of source data for IP in the 2002 annual revision included annual data from the 2000 Annual Survey of Manufactures of the Bureau of the Census and from selected editions of its 2000 and 2001 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2000 and 2001 were also introduced. The updating included revisions to the monthly indicator for each industry (either physical product data, production-worker hours, or electric power usage) and revisions to seasonal factors. Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate preliminary data from the 2001 Survey of Plant Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along with other new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. The statistics on the industrial use of electric power incorporate additional information received from utilities for the past few years and include some data from the 2000 Annual Survey of Manufactures. The revision release and revised data are available on the Board’s web site, at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data are also available through the web site of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Electric Power Use Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 200 185 Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 Manufacturing IP Total IP 200 185 160 160 135 135 Capacity 110 110 85 85 Production Detail: 2000 to present 122 60 60 118 Production 114 110 2000 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2001 1995 2002 106 2000 Percent of capacity 100 95 35 100 95 Utilization 85 85 75 75 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The line plotted at March 2001 is the most recent business cycle peak. Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing--that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. 4 65 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Industrial production Ratio scale, 1997 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 Total IP 55 35 55 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Industrial production 2000 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 Ratio scale, 1997 = 100 550 550 450 350 1985 450 Semiconductors 1990 1995 Capacity utilization 100 95 2000 -5 -10 -15 Percent of capacity 100 Excluding 95 high-technology 350 industries 250 Computers 150 250 85 85 150 75 75 65 65 Communications eq. High-technology industries 50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 50 55 1990 1995 2000 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The line plotted at March 2001 is the most recent business cycle peak. 5 55 Table 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter It Item 2001 proportion1 Annual rate 2002 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 1999 2000 2001 100.00 4.9 2.7 -5.7 -5.8 1.4 4.4 3.4 -.2 .0 -.6 .1 1.8 59.77 29.37 7.11 3.90 .38 1.25 1.58 22.26 18.48 9.87 1.12 4.71 2.23 3.78 3.3 2.6 5.7 5.4 19.7 2.3 4.3 1.4 1.2 .3 -2.8 4.8 2.0 3.0 3.2 1.1 -2.0 -4.8 9.2 -1.0 .6 2.2 1.1 -.4 -6.2 6.5 1.0 7.6 -5.4 -2.1 -3.0 1.7 -13.5 -4.6 -9.5 -1.8 -1.0 -2.2 -12.6 4.8 -.3 -5.2 -6.3 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1 35.5 -3.3 -9.8 -3.4 -3.1 -2.4 -11.5 -3.0 -4.4 -4.6 .8 4.4 12.0 15.0 22.2 9.6 3.8 2.0 .4 5.4 -1.1 -4.3 -8.9 10.4 2.8 2.9 8.4 14.3 -29.7 4.0 8.0 1.2 -2.2 -.1 -2.7 -7.6 -2.6 19.7 2.2 2.2 6.8 16.9 -1.6 -10.1 -2.5 .7 .4 -3.5 -3.7 6.4 7.5 2.5 -.3 -.7 -.6 .0 -1.2 -2.3 -1.0 -.7 -.4 -.6 -2.5 -.5 1.1 -2.1 .1 .3 -.3 -1.0 7.1 .3 -.5 .6 .5 -.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 -.6 -.7 -1.2 -2.6 2.9 .0 .6 -.5 -.3 .1 -2.5 -.7 -.1 -1.7 .2 .8 2.8 4.6 1.7 .8 -.5 .1 -.1 -.6 .5 .9 -.6 1.3 1.1 2.6 7.4 11.7 3.1 .8 2.7 1.0 -.4 -.2 -3.7 -.4 -.2 8.3 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 10.72 2.03 3.60 5.09 2.14 4.0 -10.2 18.7 .2 -5.2 7.9 -8.6 20.0 6.3 -.4 -14.3 -12.1 -13.4 -15.7 .0 -16.0 -22.0 -15.5 -13.9 .3 -5.5 -18.8 -1.0 -3.1 -.9 -1.4 -18.6 -.5 5.1 3.7 -1.8 -8.6 -4.4 2.4 4.6 .7 1.1 .1 1.0 .7 -1.1 -2.0 -1.1 -.9 .1 -.7 -2.4 .6 -.9 .7 -.4 -1.2 .4 -.6 .1 -3.7 -15.7 -.8 -1.0 3.3 Construction supplies Business supplies 6.75 10.31 2.1 7.6 .7 6.3 -6.0 -5.1 -7.8 -3.7 1.7 -1.6 4.4 6.6 1.3 5.9 .4 -.5 -.1 .7 -.3 -.6 -.9 -.2 .6 2.3 40.23 30.54 18.86 3.90 6.69 8.28 11.68 .83 2.97 4.06 9.69 7.3 8.8 11.8 7.0 23.2 3.9 3.7 .2 2.7 7.4 1.3 2.0 2.3 5.6 -6.3 23.4 -3.5 -3.5 -9.6 -3.8 -4.1 1.0 -6.0 -6.9 -7.7 -3.7 -10.2 -7.2 -5.4 -12.6 -5.6 -5.4 -3.4 -5.1 -6.5 -7.6 -3.9 -5.9 -10.8 -4.7 -16.9 -6.5 -4.3 -.7 2.3 2.1 3.5 17.9 -2.0 1.1 -.2 1.6 -4.4 4.5 2.9 6.9 7.5 8.0 6.7 9.7 7.1 6.7 7.9 5.7 10.6 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.6 8.5 7.9 2.4 5.0 1.6 9.5 3.3 5.0 -.2 .2 .5 -.9 1.2 .7 -.2 -2.3 .3 -.7 -1.7 -.2 -.2 -.4 .1 -.3 -.8 .3 .4 .3 .2 -.1 -.6 -.4 -.1 -.8 -.2 .3 -.7 -.7 .0 -.6 -1.3 .1 -.2 -.2 1.4 .1 -1.2 -.1 -.5 .0 -.4 .8 2.8 3.0 3.8 8.7 3.7 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.1 2.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 84.71 79.51 44.53 1.40 2.40 2.45 5.98 5.62 9.52 5.5 5.6 7.8 1.8 -.1 3.9 2.6 .3 30.6 2.5 2.6 5.4 -6.7 -.2 -9.6 .5 4.8 30.7 -6.1 -6.2 -8.2 -3.1 .1 -11.6 -7.8 -17.8 -9.6 -6.1 -6.2 -8.0 -7.7 -.9 -25.1 -7.2 -18.5 -4.6 1.2 2.0 2.1 6.0 -.3 9.6 .6 .6 .9 3.5 3.9 4.9 2.4 3.4 3.2 4.6 5.0 6.4 3.1 3.0 3.8 3.8 5.1 1.5 1.3 .3 5.6 .1 .0 .4 .6 .8 3.1 -.4 1.1 .7 -.2 -.3 -.6 -.2 .9 -3.0 .0 -1.3 .1 -.5 -.5 -.4 -1.0 -.1 1.8 .2 -1.6 .4 .1 .1 .3 -1.5 -.2 -1.1 -1.5 -.9 .7 1.4 1.6 2.2 .8 1.7 .8 .9 -1.9 4.9 335 3361–3 2.45 6.45 2.9 5.7 2.7 -8.4 -10.9 -1.2 -6.1 -3.8 -4.3 18.0 2.7 14.7 -2.4 18.1 -.4 -.1 -1.4 -.8 .8 -2.4 .7 3.9 -.5 12.6 3364–9 337 339 3.58 1.69 2.98 -11.2 2.3 2.0 -4.9 .7 3.8 -5.0 -8.9 -5.7 -11.7 -5.1 1.3 -17.5 .4 1.8 -13.5 -1.7 9.1 -7.6 -1.6 -.6 .7 -.9 -.3 -.7 1.2 -.9 .0 -.9 -.3 -1.1 -.9 -.1 -11.0 -2.3 2.9 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.98 11.19 1.33 1.21 3.11 2.61 1.78 10.01 3.74 2.5 .2 1.9 -3.1 2.1 .3 1.6 5.5 6.2 -1.2 -.4 -6.3 -5.9 -4.0 -.8 -.5 .4 -1.9 -3.4 -1.8 -12.4 -12.9 -5.7 -5.6 -.3 -1.1 -5.7 -3.9 -1.8 -16.2 -11.8 -9.9 -1.1 1.9 -1.5 -9.0 1.8 5.1 3.2 -1.5 -5.7 2.5 7.4 -.9 3.5 2.5 .1 5.8 -2.8 11.2 -3.7 .2 1.5 11.9 1.9 -2.9 -2.3 -3.3 6.4 12.9 -4.2 5.5 2.7 -.5 -.5 -1.6 -2.4 .6 .3 -.3 -.7 -.2 .1 -.2 -.5 .9 .3 .4 -1.8 .8 -.1 -.5 .0 -.5 -2.2 -.7 -.5 -1.0 -.7 -.5 -.1 -.5 -.1 .5 .0 .0 3.3 .2 -1.2 .9 -.1 .5 -3.6 2.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 3.1 1133,5111 5.19 3.8 .4 -3.9 -4.4 -9.7 -2.2 5.2 .7 1.1 -.6 -.7 -1.9 21 6.32 8.98 7.61 1.36 .2 2.0 1.7 4.1 .8 6.0 4.8 12.8 -.6 -5.4 -4.0 -12.5 -3.5 -4.7 -2.9 -14.2 -6.2 8.3 8.7 7.5 -2.5 18.6 15.5 40.4 .1 8.4 10.7 -5.6 -.5 -2.9 -3.1 -1.8 -1.9 2.7 3.2 -.9 -.2 -1.8 -2.3 1.7 1.3 .0 -.3 2.0 -2.8 8.4 6.7 19.2 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities 2211,2 Electric Natural gas 2211 2212 Q3r 2002 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p Nov. ’01 to Nov. ’02 2001 Q4 NOTE. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of an NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, oil and gas drilling and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year. r Revised. p Preliminary. 6 Table 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter It Item 2001 proportion Annual rate 2002 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 1999 2000 2001 100.00 4.9 2.7 -5.7 -5.8 1.4 4.4 3.4 -.2 .0 -.6 .1 1.8 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 15.97 3.78 2.15 .35 3.42 6.27 1.9 3.0 1.8 9.7 2.4 .4 3.7 7.6 7.0 29.4 5.3 -1.3 -3.5 -5.2 .3 -10.9 -7.7 -1.0 -3.3 -4.6 -4.9 -42.3 -3.2 .7 3.4 10.4 .8 -39.7 3.9 2.4 9.2 19.7 15.6 -26.5 4.5 5.2 4.8 2.5 6.9 13.7 11.0 1.7 -2.0 -2.1 -3.1 .4 -2.1 -1.4 .6 1.1 2.9 .7 1.2 -.9 -1.4 -1.7 -1.8 1.5 -2.1 -.8 .8 1.3 .3 -4.4 -.2 1.4 3.6 8.3 5.6 -18.5 2.7 1.7 Non-energy 84.03 5.4 2.5 -6.1 -6.3 1.0 3.6 3.2 .1 -.1 -.4 .0 1.5 3341 3342 6.64 1.30 2.35 41.6 19.6 27.0 40.0 17.7 30.3 -9.6 -5.9 -20.2 -1.5 18.7 -27.4 2.5 44.6 -22.2 11.9 4.2 -5.7 7.4 9.4 -21.3 1.1 1.4 -.8 -.2 1.5 -3.7 .6 2.0 -.3 .6 1.5 -1.4 6.9 19.4 -16.6 334412–9 2.99 62.0 55.8 -3.4 13.3 5.6 30.2 30.5 2.2 1.2 .4 1.5 19.7 77.39 1.9 -1.2 -5.6 -6.8 .8 2.8 2.8 .0 -.1 -.5 .0 1.0 6.45 2.69 3.41 5.7 2.6 7.8 -8.4 -12.0 -4.3 -1.2 2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -4.9 -1.5 18.0 22.7 14.7 14.7 18.1 10.3 18.1 26.7 10.1 -.1 -.7 -.3 -.8 -1.4 -.1 -2.4 -4.5 -.9 3.9 6.6 2.2 12.6 15.7 9.6 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 70.94 21.94 7.76 6.63 9.53 25.30 1.5 1.8 -2.7 1.9 2.0 3.1 -.5 .8 5.4 .3 1.2 -2.8 -6.0 -2.2 -13.7 -5.9 -4.9 -7.3 -7.0 -3.8 -15.9 -7.7 -4.3 -8.5 -.7 1.2 -9.3 1.8 -1.7 .0 1.7 -1.5 -3.9 4.4 5.1 5.3 1.4 -.6 -2.9 1.5 4.9 3.0 .0 -.6 .7 .4 -.6 .1 .0 .4 -.9 .0 .8 -.3 -.3 -.2 -.9 -.3 -.7 -.3 -.4 -.1 -.6 -.9 -.3 -.6 -.1 -.2 -5.9 .7 1.5 .9 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 93.36 78.06 38.10 1.8 1.9 1.2 -.4 -1.1 -1.3 -5.2 -5.6 -7.8 -6.1 -6.5 -9.2 1.2 1.1 1.9 3.9 2.8 3.6 3.1 2.8 3.1 -.3 .0 .3 .0 -.2 -.6 -.7 -.5 -.6 .1 .0 .2 1.4 1.0 1.3 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 93.55 78.25 38.29 4.9 5.4 8.0 3.5 3.5 7.9 -6.0 -6.5 -9.3 -6.0 -6.3 -8.7 .3 -.1 -.6 3.7 2.5 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 -.3 .1 .5 .1 -.1 -.5 -.4 -.3 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.5 1.0 .5 .3 Non-energy materials, stage–of–process components Finished processors Semifinished and primary processors 14.39 16.15 13.7 4.2 8.0 -3.1 -7.9 -5.9 -6.1 -6.9 3.1 1.2 8.0 7.0 8.2 3.0 .2 .3 .0 -.2 -.4 -.3 .5 -.7 4.8 1.5 Total industry Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Q3r 2002 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p Nov. ’01 to Nov. ’02 2001 Q4 1. See note on cover page. Table 3 MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2001 average 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 Q2 Q3 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 11.42 4.88 6.55 6.29 .25 11.61 4.80 6.81 6.59 .22 12.20 5.24 6.96 6.72 .23 12.39 5.15 7.24 6.98 .27 12.96 5.15 7.81 7.52 .29 12.90 5.07 7.82 7.53 .30 12.76 4.90 7.86 7.56 .30 12.19 4.83 7.37 7.11 .26 12.94 5.17 7.77 7.56 .21 MEMO Autos and light trucks 11.17 11.39 11.96 12.13 12.67 12.60 12.46 11.93 12.73 It Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 7 Table 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY 1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2001 proportion It Item 2002 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p 100.00 109.6 110.1 110.4 110.8 111.6 111.3 111.3 110.7 110.8 59.77 29.37 7.11 3.90 .38 1.25 1.58 22.26 18.48 9.87 1.12 4.71 2.23 3.78 108.9 107.4 115.7 121.7 150.2 108.1 98.2 104.4 103.5 100.8 74.4 120.1 107.2 109.4 109.1 107.5 116.5 123.8 139.9 108.2 98.1 104.4 102.8 100.4 72.7 118.5 106.0 112.8 109.3 107.3 117.2 124.2 143.8 109.1 98.9 103.9 102.2 100.0 72.9 116.8 106.2 112.5 109.6 107.8 118.6 127.4 135.3 107.5 100.2 104.1 102.8 100.2 72.9 118.3 107.2 110.9 110.1 108.5 120.0 130.6 137.0 106.9 99.2 104.6 102.8 99.8 73.2 119.5 107.1 114.0 109.8 107.8 119.3 130.6 135.4 104.5 98.3 103.8 102.4 99.2 71.3 119.0 108.4 111.6 109.9 108.1 118.9 129.3 145.0 104.9 97.8 104.4 102.8 99.0 72.1 120.6 109.8 112.8 109.3 107.3 117.4 126.0 149.1 104.9 98.4 103.8 102.5 99.1 70.3 119.8 109.7 110.9 109.4 108.2 120.7 131.8 151.6 105.7 97.9 104.0 102.4 98.5 70.6 120.9 109.1 112.4 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 10.72 2.03 3.60 5.09 2.14 107.8 84.8 155.5 90.3 99.8 107.7 83.2 154.7 91.1 99.9 108.0 82.0 154.9 91.9 100.6 108.0 81.1 154.9 92.2 101.2 107.3 80.2 153.5 92.0 101.2 108.1 81.1 153.7 92.9 101.9 106.8 79.5 152.0 92.0 102.0 106.1 77.5 152.9 91.2 102.7 105.6 76.6 153.5 90.7 102.8 Construction supplies Business supplies 6.75 10.31 104.0 119.7 104.0 120.7 104.6 121.5 104.5 121.8 104.4 123.2 104.8 122.6 104.8 123.5 104.5 122.7 103.5 122.5 40.23 30.54 18.86 3.90 6.69 8.28 11.68 .83 2.97 4.06 9.69 110.7 114.0 125.8 109.2 177.6 96.0 95.9 77.7 91.9 98.8 97.9 111.6 115.0 127.1 110.8 179.8 96.7 96.5 77.8 93.3 99.6 98.6 112.2 115.8 127.8 110.1 182.3 97.2 97.3 78.2 94.8 100.4 98.5 112.6 116.4 128.6 110.4 183.6 97.9 97.6 78.5 93.6 100.6 98.6 113.8 117.2 129.4 113.4 184.2 97.7 98.4 79.6 95.8 101.3 101.0 113.6 117.4 130.0 112.3 186.3 98.3 98.2 77.8 96.1 100.7 99.3 113.4 117.3 129.5 112.4 185.7 97.6 98.4 78.1 96.4 100.9 99.1 112.7 116.8 129.3 111.5 185.3 97.8 97.7 77.5 96.3 100.4 97.8 112.8 116.6 129.0 113.0 185.5 96.7 97.6 77.2 96.4 100.0 98.6 321 327 331 332 333 334 84.71 79.51 44.53 1.40 2.40 2.45 5.98 5.62 9.52 110.7 111.0 119.8 101.7 106.6 85.1 98.2 88.0 216.9 111.0 111.4 120.5 100.8 107.4 84.6 98.4 88.3 217.9 111.4 111.9 121.2 101.0 107.7 85.9 99.7 88.5 220.0 111.9 112.2 121.8 102.2 106.6 86.2 99.3 88.9 220.8 112.3 112.7 122.2 101.9 107.7 85.0 99.7 88.4 221.5 112.4 112.8 122.7 102.5 108.5 87.6 99.3 89.4 223.0 112.2 112.5 122.0 102.4 109.5 85.0 99.3 88.2 223.3 111.7 112.0 121.5 101.3 109.3 86.5 99.5 86.8 224.2 111.7 112.1 121.8 99.8 109.2 85.5 98.0 86.1 225.8 335 3361–3 2.45 6.45 96.8 113.3 97.2 115.9 98.9 115.8 98.7 118.6 98.4 122.1 98.0 122.0 96.6 121.0 97.4 118.1 98.0 122.7 3364–9 337 339 3.58 1.69 2.98 89.5 101.7 107.4 88.3 101.8 109.6 87.6 101.5 110.2 86.9 101.6 110.7 85.7 101.4 110.6 86.3 100.5 110.2 85.7 101.7 109.3 85.7 100.8 108.9 84.8 100.0 108.8 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.98 11.19 1.33 1.21 3.11 2.61 1.78 10.01 3.74 99.5 101.4 83.0 74.1 91.6 95.2 103.5 105.2 105.1 99.5 101.0 82.9 72.5 93.0 95.5 104.2 105.1 105.7 99.7 100.6 83.6 72.7 95.0 96.2 103.4 105.0 106.7 99.9 100.9 83.4 72.6 94.7 95.5 102.4 105.7 107.4 100.4 100.5 83.9 73.0 95.2 98.4 103.0 106.9 107.5 100.0 100.0 82.5 71.2 95.8 98.6 102.7 106.2 107.3 100.1 99.8 82.1 71.8 96.1 99.0 100.9 107.0 107.1 99.6 99.8 81.6 70.2 95.4 98.5 99.9 106.2 106.6 99.5 99.3 81.6 70.6 95.4 98.5 103.2 106.4 105.4 1133,5111 5.19 105.0 104.1 104.2 105.5 105.0 105.8 107.0 106.4 105.7 21 6.32 8.98 7.61 1.36 93.6 108.0 110.1 96.9 93.4 110.6 112.5 100.2 93.4 110.1 111.2 104.4 93.5 110.1 111.4 103.2 94.4 113.7 115.7 102.7 93.9 110.4 112.2 100.8 92.1 113.3 115.8 99.9 92.0 111.3 113.1 101.6 93.2 111.3 112.8 103.6 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities 2211,2 Electric Natural gas 2211 2212 NOTE. See notes to table 1. 8 Table 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES 1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2001 proportion It Item 2002 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p 100.00 109.6 110.1 110.4 110.8 111.6 111.3 111.3 110.7 110.8 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 15.97 3.78 2.15 3.42 6.27 102.5 109.4 114.7 91.7 103.2 94.6 103.9 112.8 117.1 87.0 102.5 95.9 103.7 112.5 116.9 86.6 101.9 96.1 103.5 110.9 117.3 89.2 102.5 96.0 106.1 114.0 120.4 90.0 106.1 97.6 104.0 111.6 116.7 90.4 103.8 96.2 104.7 112.8 120.1 91.0 105.1 95.4 103.2 110.9 118.0 92.3 102.8 94.6 104.0 112.4 118.3 88.3 102.6 95.9 Non-energy 84.03 110.7 111.0 111.4 111.9 112.3 112.4 112.3 111.8 111.8 3341 3342 6.64 1.30 2.35 284.0 227.8 145.4 286.9 227.2 143.6 290.8 225.6 144.0 293.1 225.4 144.0 293.6 227.9 138.0 296.8 231.1 136.8 296.1 234.6 131.7 297.9 239.4 131.4 299.8 243.0 129.5 334412–9 2.99 450.7 465.4 479.7 488.5 501.4 512.3 518.6 520.7 528.5 77.39 99.3 99.5 99.8 100.2 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.0 99.9 6.45 2.69 3.41 113.3 113.9 114.9 115.9 117.5 117.0 115.8 117.4 116.4 118.6 120.9 118.1 122.1 127.0 120.2 122.0 126.1 119.9 121.0 124.4 119.8 118.1 118.7 118.7 122.7 126.6 121.3 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 70.94 21.94 7.76 6.63 9.53 25.30 98.1 103.4 91.8 103.7 101.5 94.8 98.0 102.6 91.7 103.7 102.2 95.4 98.4 102.3 91.8 104.4 102.7 96.0 98.6 102.7 91.5 104.2 102.9 96.3 98.7 102.6 90.9 104.2 104.0 96.6 98.7 102.1 91.5 104.6 103.4 96.7 98.7 102.5 90.6 104.6 104.2 96.5 98.4 102.3 89.8 104.3 103.4 96.2 97.9 102.2 89.3 103.3 103.1 95.6 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 93.36 78.06 38.10 99.9 99.4 98.4 100.3 99.5 98.9 100.5 99.9 99.4 100.8 100.2 99.7 101.5 100.6 100.1 101.2 100.6 100.4 101.2 100.4 99.8 100.6 99.9 99.2 100.7 99.9 99.4 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 93.55 78.25 38.29 109.4 110.5 120.6 109.7 110.5 120.9 110.1 111.0 121.8 110.3 111.3 121.8 110.8 111.4 121.6 110.5 111.5 122.3 110.6 111.4 121.7 110.1 111.1 121.6 109.9 110.8 121.0 Non-energy materials, stage-of-process components Finished processors Semifinished and primary processors 14.39 16.15 133.1 97.8 134.9 98.3 136.0 99.0 136.2 99.7 138.3 99.6 138.5 99.9 138.4 99.7 137.9 99.3 138.5 98.6 Total industry Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 1. See note on cover page. Table 6 DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Percent Item It Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. One month earlier 2000 2001 2002 58.6 41.4 55.6 54.6 40.3 61.0 53.9 40.3 61.0 54.6 46.8 58.0 48.5 35.3 59.3 52.2 38.0 55.9 51.2 47.5 52.9 40.7 45.1 48.5 50.5 42.4 46.3 40.7 43.1 42.2 39.0 38.6 38.6 49.5 Three months earlier 2000 2001 2002 59.7 34.6 44.7 55.9 29.8 55.1 55.9 33.9 59.9 52.5 36.9 60.7 50.2 33.9 63.1 50.8 36.9 62.0 46.4 39.0 63.7 40.7 40.3 58.3 39.3 38.0 48.1 34.9 40.7 39.3 40.3 37.6 35.3 40.3 Six months earlier 2000 2001 2002 60.0 30.2 39.3 59.7 30.5 43.9 65.4 28.5 52.7 59.7 27.8 53.7 52.5 27.8 66.3 54.9 30.8 66.3 52.9 31.5 65.8 46.8 38.0 63.7 45.8 38.0 56.3 36.9 32.5 54.6 35.3 33.2 32.2 38.0 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 9 Table 7 CAPACITY UTILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 19722001 ave. 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 Q2 Q3r 2002 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p 100.00 81.5 85.1 78.6 84.8 75.1 75.1 75.7 76.2 76.1 76.1 75.5 75.6 86.10 81.39 80.4 80.3 85.5 85.5 77.2 77.0 84.3 84.4 73.4 72.9 73.4 73.0 73.9 73.5 74.3 73.9 74.3 73.9 74.2 73.7 73.8 73.3 73.8 73.3 321 327 331 332 333 334 47.05 1.44 2.25 2.44 6.25 5.85 11.20 78.8 80.5 79.5 81.1 77.3 80.3 80.2 84.5 88.7 85.6 95.3 80.1 84.7 81.5 73.4 73.1 72.1 75.2 71.0 72.9 76.4 83.7 87.7 83.7 94.8 83.6 88.7 85.4 69.9 73.5 80.3 73.0 70.5 67.3 64.1 69.8 74.6 80.0 75.3 70.5 67.3 62.9 70.2 75.0 80.4 76.4 71.2 68.2 62.7 70.6 75.6 81.2 77.1 71.3 68.3 62.6 70.8 75.8 81.2 78.7 71.2 68.8 62.7 70.3 75.7 81.8 76.4 71.2 67.9 62.5 69.9 74.9 81.7 77.9 71.3 66.9 62.5 69.9 73.8 81.5 77.2 70.2 66.3 62.7 335 3361–3 2.39 6.52 83.5 77.2 87.5 90.0 75.0 56.6 92.5 87.0 75.9 75.3 75.3 77.9 76.1 80.0 75.9 82.7 76.2 82.9 75.2 82.0 75.9 79.8 76.4 82.7 3364–9 337 339 4.03 1.74 2.94 73.5 79.5 77.2 88.9 84.1 81.7 81.9 68.1 77.5 67.9 83.7 81.2 65.3 71.4 74.6 62.3 71.4 74.6 60.2 71.1 76.0 59.1 70.9 75.5 59.4 70.4 75.7 59.0 71.2 74.9 59.0 70.6 74.6 58.4 70.1 74.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.33 10.70 1.34 1.36 2.91 2.59 1.57 10.19 3.67 82.4 82.5 83.9 80.5 88.7 85.0 86.3 78.8 83.8 86.9 85.5 91.1 83.9 94.0 91.7 88.9 85.6 91.2 81.8 81.3 77.1 77.2 85.4 82.7 82.5 80.8 77.1 85.4 84.3 90.6 89.1 92.6 86.0 90.4 81.3 92.3 77.0 79.0 71.9 65.4 81.0 76.2 88.7 74.7 75.9 77.5 80.1 72.8 65.5 80.1 77.2 90.1 74.4 76.9 78.1 80.2 74.2 65.3 82.5 77.1 89.9 74.6 79.4 78.5 79.6 74.2 64.8 83.9 80.0 88.7 75.5 80.3 78.4 79.6 73.9 64.1 84.0 80.0 89.2 75.2 80.3 78.5 79.4 73.6 64.7 84.3 80.5 87.5 75.8 80.3 78.2 79.5 73.3 63.3 83.8 80.3 86.5 75.2 80.1 78.2 79.1 73.4 63.6 83.9 80.5 89.2 75.3 79.3 1133,5111 4.72 83.6 90.2 79.1 82.7 81.9 80.3 80.3 81.8 81.7 82.8 82.5 82.1 21 2211,2 5.94 7.96 87.0 86.7 85.6 92.6 83.3 84.2 88.5 93.8 86.6 85.0 85.2 85.5 84.8 87.8 84.9 88.2 85.3 86.5 83.7 88.4 83.5 86.3 84.6 85.9 3341 3342 8.10 1.62 2.68 79.8 78.7 79.2 80.4 79.7 82.2 74.6 67.0 73.3 88.5 86.4 87.4 63.1 68.7 60.7 61.8 74.6 56.3 62.2 74.2 55.2 62.2 74.4 52.0 62.4 74.4 52.5 62.0 75.0 50.6 62.0 76.0 50.5 62.0 76.6 49.8 334412–9 3.80 81.8 81.4 78.7 92.0 63.2 61.5 63.7 66.3 66.5 66.8 66.5 67.0 91.90 78.00 81.6 80.4 85.5 86.1 78.8 77.3 84.6 84.0 76.3 74.6 76.5 74.8 77.1 75.3 77.7 75.9 77.6 75.9 77.6 75.8 77.0 75.4 77.1 75.4 9.32 49.17 41.51 86.5 82.4 78.7 88.6 86.2 83.1 84.7 77.6 77.2 89.3 87.7 80.3 82.9 76.3 72.0 82.4 76.5 71.9 83.2 77.7 71.7 83.8 78.5 71.7 83.9 78.4 71.7 83.0 78.6 71.5 82.5 78.0 71.0 83.0 77.8 71.2 2001 proportion Item Total industry Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aircraft and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. See note on cover page. Table 8 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY Percent change Item 197279 Average annual rate 1980198988 94 Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952002 1999 2000 2001 2002p Annual rate 2002 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Monthly rate 2002 Nov. Total industry 2.8 1.8 2.2 4.4 4.1 4.3 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 .1 Manufacturing1 3.1 2.1 2.5 4.9 4.8 5.0 2.4 .9 1.2 .9 .7 .6 .0 Mining Utilities .7 3.6 .1 1.7 -.8 1.3 -.1 2.6 -2.6 1.3 -.4 2.9 2.2 4.1 -.2 6.5 -.1 5.9 -.5 6.5 -.3 6.8 .3 6.7 .0 .5 18.2 17.1 14.7 34.8 28.5 40.3 23.2 8.7 11.5 9.0 7.5 6.9 .6 2.4 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.5 .4 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 1.6 2.8 3.5 .3 1.4 3.0 -.2 2.5 2.4 .0 5.6 4.0 -2.2 5.0 4.5 -.4 5.6 4.0 .8 3.0 2.0 -.6 1.7 .9 -.8 2.0 1.1 -.9 1.8 1.0 -.6 1.5 .9 -.2 1.3 .9 .0 .1 .1 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. See note on cover page. 10 Table 9 GROSS VALUE OF FINAL PRODUCTS AND NONINDUSTRIAL SUPPLIES Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 1996 2001 2001 Q3 Q4 2002 Q1 Q2 Q3r 2002 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p 2,409.0 2,808.7 2,797.5 2,758.0 2,775.7 2,802.9 2,823.2 2,821.5 2,819.9 2,797.0 2,814.9 1,751.3 1,227.6 354.0 216.1 137.9 873.6 2,026.0 1,357.4 432.4 270.0 161.7 923.4 2,019.3 1,360.0 436.8 276.2 159.4 922.1 1,991.0 1,352.7 434.6 274.4 159.2 917.1 2,007.1 1,372.3 448.8 284.8 162.8 923.6 2,023.6 1,387.1 459.3 295.1 162.3 928.7 2,037.8 1,398.6 471.5 308.9 159.7 929.1 2,038.1 1,395.9 471.2 309.8 158.3 926.9 2,033.0 1,395.7 469.2 306.7 159.7 928.3 2,014.9 1,382.4 460.5 297.3 161.0 923.1 2,035.4 1,402.8 478.1 313.2 161.9 927.6 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 523.7 508.8 428.1 80.6 669.0 654.9 571.6 82.8 657.8 643.5 560.3 82.5 633.4 620.3 536.7 82.4 627.3 616.3 532.9 82.2 627.8 617.9 533.2 83.3 629.8 619.7 533.8 84.3 633.6 623.5 537.5 84.5 627.9 617.8 531.5 84.6 623.3 613.1 526.0 85.2 621.3 611.6 524.3 85.3 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 657.8 255.8 402.0 113.0 782.8 282.3 502.6 129.0 778.4 280.9 499.5 129.8 767.1 275.2 494.2 128.0 768.4 277.1 493.4 128.6 779.4 280.2 501.5 132.7 785.5 280.9 507.3 134.6 783.5 281.3 504.5 132.1 787.1 281.1 508.7 135.5 782.4 280.2 504.8 133.1 779.4 277.5 504.7 134.0 It Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable Table 10 GROSS-VALUE-WEIGHTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter It Item 2001 Gross value1 Finished Semi-finished Primary Crude 1999 2000 2001 2001 Q4 2.6 6.8 3.4 3.8 1.8 3.8 -1.3 -4.5 -5.2 -5.7 -6.0 -4.3 -6.2 -5.4 -7.6 -.2 1792.8 1764.4 858.0 356.0 Annual rate 2002 Q1 Q2 2.2 2.1 7.0 -2.3 1.8 7.6 7.4 5.1 Oct.p 2002 May Monthly rate Q3r 2002 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.p -.1 -.4 .2 -.3 -.3 .6 -.6 -.7 -.9 -.7 -.6 -.8 .9 -.2 .4 .5 3.0 6.0 1.7 2.2 Nov. ’01 to Nov. ’02 1.5 3.3 3.4 .0 1. Billions of 1996 dollars. Table 11 ELECTRIC POWER USE 1997 = 100 Item 1992 billion kWh Seasonally adjusted 2002 May June July Aug.r Not seasonally adjusted Sept.r June July Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Total Industry 983.9 89.5 88.5 89.8 89.1 89.9 89.6 89.5 89.7 90.1 91.6 92.8 91.6 Manufacturing1 Durable Nondurable 890.9 386.5 498.4 89.6 88.9 90.1 88.7 89.1 88.3 90.0 90.6 89.5 89.3 90.3 88.5 90.3 91.0 89.7 89.8 90.5 89.2 89.8 89.4 90.0 90.1 91.1 89.2 90.5 92.2 89.2 92.0 93.6 90.6 93.3 94.3 92.3 91.9 92.1 91.7 93.0 86.9 85.7 87.1 86.0 85.1 86.5 85.9 84.3 84.7 85.3 86.2 86.8 962.6 913.5 70.4 89.7 87.3 120.6 89.3 86.0 118.0 90.2 87.0 115.6 89.7 86.3 115.7 90.3 87.6 117.1 90.2 88.4 114.3 89.8 87.6 119.2 91.1 88.0 116.4 91.7 88.4 117.7 93.2 89.9 118.4 93.6 91.4 115.6 91.7 90.0 116.7 Mining Total ex. nuclear nondefense Utility sales to industry Industrial generation NOTE. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/download.htm. 1. See note on cover page. 11 Table 12 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change)1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual .6 -.6 -1.7 1.9 2.1 .0 -.4 1.9 -.5 .2 -.3 .5 -.7 .7 .7 -2.0 -.5 -.8 1.3 .6 -2.4 .7 -.8 .7 .5 -1.3 .5 -.4 .6 .3 -1.0 .7 -.3 1.5 .3 .5 -.1 -.8 1.1 .1 1.7 -.7 -.4 1.5 -.3 1.1 -.7 -1.0 .7 -.1 1.8 -1.1 -.3 .4 .3 .6 -1.2 -.9 .5 .0 2.2 1.1 -7.2 4.5 12.6 -16.0 1.4 -5.3 9.8 6.6 -7.0 4.1 -5.8 14.5 2.7 16.2 -9.0 -7.9 10.4 .0 -2.7 1.2 -5.2 2.6 9.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .5 -.6 .1 .3 .5 -.6 1.3 .4 -.5 .0 -.6 .2 .2 .4 .0 .0 .6 .4 .0 .1 .1 .6 -.1 -.7 -.1 -.3 .6 .1 -.1 -.6 .3 .7 .3 -1.0 .4 .1 .7 .6 .9 .4 .2 .2 -.3 -.3 -.4 .4 1.3 .5 -.1 .3 .5 .4 .3 .2 1.0 .8 .4 .4 .7 .8 2.6 4.5 3.4 1.8 .6 -2.6 7.1 2.7 -1.5 -.7 .9 7.6 2.4 -3.0 2.2 4.9 8.8 2.9 1.3 1.1 .9 4.8 4.8 .8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.6 -.4 -.6 .4 .5 .9 -.7 .8 .3 .1 .5 -.5 .8 .2 .9 .0 .2 .6 .2 .6 .0 1.0 .4 -.4 .6 .4 .9 -.1 .2 .7 -.2 .1 .8 .4 .2 .1 -.1 -.4 -.1 .5 .1 .9 .2 .7 .1 -.6 -.2 .7 .5 .8 -1.3 -.2 .5 .5 .6 -.6 -.3 .1 .6 1.1 2.9 -7.3 -.5 3.5 5.7 3.2 2.3 6.8 1.0 7.4 .8 5.2 3.0 2.1 4.9 -6.0 .6 4.1 5.9 7.6 .8 -1.7 2.7 3.3 5.3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .5 -.8 .3 .5 .7 .1 1.4 1.4 .3 .3 .0 -.2 .4 .3 .4 -.1 .9 .5 .6 .2 .3 .7 .4 .5 .5 .4 .9 .5 -.5 .1 -.4 .0 .4 -.1 .7 1.4 .6 1.0 1.8 .5 .4 .6 .9 -.2 -.1 -.2 .1 .8 .7 .9 .4 .9 .6 -.3 .6 .4 .6 .3 .1 .7 6.0 2.0 8.6 4.5 4.2 .8 8.0 6.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 5.7 7.6 3.3 4.9 3.7 6.4 9.2 4.0 6.5 4.8 4.4 7.3 5.6 4.3 2000 2001 2002 .1 -.8 .6 .7 -.5 .2 .4 -.5 .4 .7 -.5 .4 .6 -.6 .3 .2 -.6 .3 -.2 -.1 .7 -.2 -.3 -.2 .3 -.7 .0 -.4 -.4 -.6 -.1 -.6 .1 -.3 -.5 5.4 -6.1 1.4 7.1 -6.1 4.4 .2 -4.6 3.4 -1.6 -5.8 4.7 -3.5 IP (1997=100) 2000 2001 2002 113.2 114.2 109.0 113.9 113.6 109.2 114.4 113.1 109.6 115.3 112.5 110.1 116.0 111.8 110.4 116.2 111.1 110.8 115.9 111.0 111.6 115.7 110.7 111.3 116.1 109.9 111.3 115.6 109.5 110.7 115.5 108.8 110.8 115.1 108.3 113.9 113.6 109.3 115.8 111.8 110.5 115.9 110.5 111.4 115.4 108.9 115.3 111.2 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2000 2001 2002 136.6 142.3 145.3 137.1 142.7 145.4 137.7 143.0 145.6 138.2 143.4 145.7 138.7 143.6 145.9 139.2 143.9 146.0 139.7 144.1 146.1 140.2 144.4 146.2 140.7 144.6 146.4 141.1 144.8 146.5 141.5 145.0 146.6 142.0 145.1 137.1 142.7 145.4 138.7 143.6 145.9 140.2 144.4 146.2 141.5 145.0 139.4 143.9 Utilization (percent) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 84.4 80.8 75.5 72.1 79.6 84.3 80.3 76.8 71.6 79.7 83.8 80.5 76.0 72.1 80.2 82.0 79.9 75.2 73.1 80.5 79.9 80.4 74.5 73.6 80.8 78.6 80.6 74.1 74.0 81.0 77.7 81.0 73.7 75.1 81.1 78.0 80.7 73.0 75.9 81.0 79.2 80.0 72.6 76.9 80.6 79.9 79.2 71.8 77.4 80.4 81.2 78.1 71.5 77.7 80.5 81.4 77.0 70.8 78.0 80.3 84.2 80.5 76.1 71.9 79.8 80.2 80.3 74.6 73.5 80.8 78.3 80.5 73.1 75.9 80.9 80.8 78.1 71.3 77.7 80.4 80.9 79.9 73.8 74.8 80.5 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.9 79.8 78.9 83.4 85.1 80.2 79.2 79.8 83.7 84.6 80.0 78.7 79.9 83.8 84.7 79.8 78.6 80.2 84.0 84.6 79.7 78.5 80.5 83.9 83.9 79.4 78.2 80.9 84.0 83.7 78.8 78.4 81.3 84.2 82.7 79.0 78.3 81.8 84.6 83.3 79.2 78.4 81.9 84.3 82.9 78.8 78.7 82.9 84.6 82.6 78.9 78.9 83.1 84.7 82.6 79.5 79.5 83.4 84.9 83.0 80.0 79.2 79.5 83.6 84.8 79.6 78.5 80.5 84.0 84.1 79.0 78.4 81.6 84.4 82.9 79.1 79.0 83.1 84.7 82.7 79.4 78.8 81.2 84.2 83.6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.4 79.9 78.7 81.0 82.1 83.0 79.2 79.2 81.1 82.0 83.2 78.6 79.8 81.1 82.6 83.1 78.7 80.1 81.1 82.9 83.0 79.4 80.3 80.7 83.1 83.1 79.9 80.1 80.7 83.5 82.8 79.9 80.6 80.9 83.4 82.8 79.7 80.2 80.6 83.6 82.8 80.3 80.2 81.0 83.4 82.1 80.0 80.6 81.3 83.8 80.9 79.8 80.9 81.6 84.1 80.3 79.4 80.8 81.9 84.7 82.9 79.2 79.3 81.1 82.2 83.1 79.3 80.2 80.8 83.1 82.8 80.0 80.4 80.9 83.5 81.1 79.7 80.8 81.6 84.2 82.5 79.6 80.1 81.1 83.3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.8 81.9 82.9 83.9 82.1 84.5 82.6 83.6 83.6 82.1 84.2 82.0 83.6 83.4 82.2 83.7 82.4 83.6 83.4 82.1 83.6 82.5 83.5 83.4 82.3 83.6 82.9 83.5 82.5 82.1 82.9 82.5 83.4 82.0 82.4 83.6 82.6 83.8 83.0 82.5 83.6 82.7 84.1 82.5 82.2 83.0 82.4 84.3 82.7 82.6 83.0 82.8 84.3 82.1 82.8 82.9 83.0 84.0 81.9 83.1 84.5 82.2 83.4 83.7 82.1 83.6 82.6 83.5 83.1 82.2 83.4 82.6 83.8 82.5 82.4 83.0 82.8 84.2 82.2 82.9 83.6 82.5 83.7 82.9 82.4 2000 2001 2002 82.9 80.2 75.0 83.1 79.6 75.1 83.1 79.0 75.3 83.4 78.5 75.6 83.6 77.9 75.7 83.5 77.2 75.9 83.0 77.0 76.4 82.5 76.7 76.1 82.5 76.0 76.1 81.9 75.6 75.5 81.6 75.1 75.6 81.1 74.6 83.0 79.6 75.1 83.5 77.9 75.7 82.7 76.6 76.2 81.6 75.1 82.7 77.3 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 12 Table 13 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual .5 -.4 -2.2 2.5 2.0 -.1 -.4 2.6 -.2 .8 -.8 .3 -.8 1.0 .8 -2.0 .5 -.6 1.2 .5 -3.0 .6 -.3 1.3 .3 -1.6 -.5 -.2 .8 .4 -1.3 .3 -.1 1.5 .5 1.0 .0 -.9 .7 .1 1.7 -.6 -.3 1.8 -.3 1.6 -1.1 -1.3 1.1 .4 1.9 -1.2 -.6 .3 .3 .3 -1.7 -.5 .3 .4 1.4 .8 -8.8 9.0 13.0 -18.7 3.2 -2.1 12.5 6.7 -8.4 -.1 -3.9 15.0 3.7 19.3 -10.6 -9.0 12.1 2.2 -3.8 1.0 -5.5 4.6 9.9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.4 1.2 -.6 -.1 .8 -.2 -.5 1.6 .3 -1.0 .7 -.4 .2 .3 .0 -.2 .4 .5 .7 .1 .1 .1 .6 -.1 -.8 .1 -.4 .5 .0 .1 -.4 .1 .8 .2 -1.1 .5 .6 .5 .1 .9 .1 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.4 .4 1.4 .5 -.2 .6 .5 .6 .3 .1 .4 .9 .5 .4 .2 -.1 4.8 4.9 2.7 1.8 1.4 -.1 7.2 3.8 -3.2 .1 1.7 7.4 1.6 -3.2 1.7 5.6 10.2 4.3 .0 1.6 2.1 5.4 5.1 .7 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.2 -.7 -.6 .9 .4 1.4 -.7 1.0 .2 .1 .4 -.7 .9 .0 1.2 -.1 .4 .5 .4 .8 .1 .7 .6 -.1 .7 .3 1.1 .2 -.2 .3 -.2 .4 .8 .3 .4 .1 .0 -.3 -.2 .8 -.1 1.1 .0 .9 .2 -.7 -.1 .6 .6 .9 -1.2 -.3 .5 .5 .8 -.7 -.1 -.2 .6 1.1 4.4 -8.6 .8 4.3 5.9 2.9 2.0 7.8 1.4 9.3 .4 6.8 3.9 1.3 5.9 -6.7 1.4 3.0 6.7 9.3 .6 -2.0 3.5 3.4 6.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .5 -.9 .3 .9 .5 -.1 1.3 1.6 .2 .6 .1 -.3 .6 .2 .2 -.1 1.1 .3 .8 .4 .1 .7 .5 .3 .7 .5 1.1 .7 -.6 .0 -.6 .4 .3 -.1 .5 1.2 .6 1.4 2.1 .8 .9 .7 .8 -.3 .0 -.2 .1 .7 1.0 1.0 .2 .9 .8 -.1 .8 .5 .8 .4 .2 .6 6.3 1.0 10.0 6.5 4.4 .3 9.1 7.7 3.8 4.7 3.2 8.2 8.7 3.8 4.9 4.4 6.7 9.7 6.1 8.0 5.3 4.6 8.5 6.5 4.9 2000 2001 2002 .2 -.8 .6 .6 -.5 .1 .8 -.5 .2 .7 -.5 .3 .4 -.6 .4 .3 -.7 .4 -.1 .0 .4 -.5 -.5 .1 .4 -.6 -.2 -.4 -.6 -.5 -.4 -.4 .1 -.6 -.4 6.1 -7.1 1.2 7.1 -6.2 3.5 .1 -4.9 3.1 -2.9 -6.1 5.0 -4.1 IP (1997=100) 2000 2001 2002 115.3 115.7 110.3 116.0 115.1 110.4 116.9 114.5 110.7 117.7 114.0 111.0 118.1 113.3 111.4 118.5 112.5 111.9 118.4 112.5 112.3 117.8 111.9 112.4 118.2 111.2 112.2 117.8 110.6 111.7 117.3 110.1 111.7 116.6 109.6 116.1 115.1 110.5 118.1 113.3 111.4 118.1 111.9 112.3 117.2 110.1 117.4 112.6 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2000 2001 2002 140.9 147.5 150.4 141.5 147.9 150.5 142.1 148.2 150.6 142.8 148.5 150.8 143.4 148.8 150.9 144.0 149.1 151.0 144.6 149.3 151.1 145.1 149.5 151.1 145.6 149.7 151.2 146.1 149.9 151.3 146.6 150.1 151.4 147.1 150.2 141.5 147.9 150.5 143.4 148.8 150.9 145.1 149.5 151.1 146.6 150.1 144.1 149.1 Utilization (percent) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 83.1 78.5 71.8 70.2 78.3 82.9 77.9 73.6 70.0 78.8 82.1 78.0 72.8 70.7 79.3 80.2 78.2 72.3 71.5 79.5 77.6 78.5 71.9 72.5 79.6 76.2 77.9 71.7 73.0 79.8 75.0 77.9 71.5 74.0 80.0 75.6 77.7 70.7 74.5 79.9 76.7 77.1 70.5 75.8 79.5 77.7 76.1 69.4 76.6 79.6 79.0 75.0 69.0 76.8 79.6 79.0 73.6 68.6 76.9 79.7 82.7 78.1 72.7 70.3 78.8 78.0 78.2 72.0 72.3 79.7 75.8 77.6 70.9 74.8 79.8 78.6 74.9 69.0 76.8 79.6 78.8 77.2 71.1 73.5 79.5 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.1 79.1 78.8 83.2 85.5 78.7 78.6 79.9 83.4 84.5 79.1 78.2 79.8 83.6 84.4 78.7 78.4 80.1 84.1 84.2 78.6 78.4 80.4 84.0 83.4 78.5 78.1 80.7 83.9 83.3 78.0 78.1 81.1 84.1 82.2 78.2 78.4 81.4 84.1 82.8 78.2 78.5 81.7 84.3 82.3 77.7 78.7 82.7 84.7 82.0 78.1 78.9 83.1 84.8 81.8 78.3 79.4 83.4 85.0 81.8 79.0 78.6 79.5 83.4 84.8 78.6 78.3 80.4 84.0 83.7 78.1 78.3 81.4 84.2 82.4 78.0 79.0 83.1 84.8 81.9 78.4 78.6 81.1 84.1 83.2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.6 78.5 77.7 80.2 80.9 82.5 77.9 78.4 80.1 80.8 82.7 77.2 79.0 80.0 81.6 82.4 77.3 79.2 80.2 82.0 82.3 77.8 79.5 79.9 82.4 82.3 78.4 79.5 79.6 82.4 82.0 78.6 80.0 79.7 82.5 82.0 78.4 79.6 79.4 82.9 81.8 79.2 79.4 79.9 82.8 81.0 78.9 79.7 80.2 83.2 79.9 78.6 80.0 80.4 83.6 79.2 78.3 79.7 80.8 84.2 82.3 77.9 78.4 80.1 81.1 82.3 77.8 79.4 79.9 82.3 81.9 78.7 79.7 79.7 82.7 80.1 78.6 79.8 80.5 83.7 81.6 78.3 79.3 80.0 82.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.3 80.6 81.6 83.2 81.2 83.9 81.2 82.5 82.9 81.3 83.6 80.5 82.6 82.5 81.2 83.1 80.9 82.5 82.6 81.1 82.8 81.1 82.5 82.3 81.4 82.8 81.5 82.6 81.3 81.1 81.8 81.4 82.4 80.8 81.2 82.4 81.4 83.0 82.0 81.5 82.7 81.6 83.1 81.4 81.2 82.1 81.3 83.2 81.8 81.6 81.8 81.6 83.3 81.3 81.9 81.7 81.8 83.1 81.1 82.1 83.9 80.7 82.3 82.9 81.2 82.9 81.2 82.5 82.0 81.2 82.3 81.5 82.8 81.4 81.3 81.9 81.6 83.2 81.4 81.9 82.8 81.2 82.7 81.9 81.4 2000 2001 2002 81.9 78.5 73.3 82.0 77.8 73.4 82.2 77.3 73.5 82.4 76.8 73.6 82.4 76.1 73.9 82.3 75.5 74.1 81.9 75.3 74.3 81.2 74.8 74.3 81.2 74.3 74.2 80.6 73.8 73.8 80.0 73.4 73.8 79.3 73.0 82.0 77.9 73.4 82.4 76.1 73.9 81.4 74.8 74.3 80.0 73.4 81.4 75.6 NOTE. See note to table 12. 1. See note on cover page. 13 Table 14 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual .6 -.7 -1.8 1.9 2.1 -.1 -.5 1.8 -.6 .1 -.4 .5 -.8 .7 .6 -2.2 -.7 -.9 1.3 .5 -2.5 .7 -.9 .6 .4 -1.4 .5 -.4 .5 .2 -1.0 .7 -.4 1.4 .2 .4 -.2 -.8 1.2 -.1 1.7 -.7 -.4 1.2 -.3 1.1 -.8 -1.1 .7 -.1 1.8 -1.2 -.4 .3 .3 .5 -1.3 -1.0 .5 .0 1.2 .2 -8.1 3.6 11.4 -17.0 .5 -6.2 9.0 5.2 -7.5 3.4 -6.5 13.6 1.5 15.9 -10.0 -8.5 9.2 -.8 -3.7 .5 -6.0 1.8 7.8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .6 -.7 .1 .3 .6 -.6 1.3 .5 -.5 .0 -.7 .2 .1 .4 .1 -.1 .5 .3 -.1 .1 .0 .5 -.2 -.7 -.1 -.1 .5 .1 -.1 -.5 .0 .6 .2 -1.2 .4 .0 .6 .6 .8 .5 .2 .2 -.4 -.3 -.4 .4 1.3 .4 -.2 .3 .4 .3 .3 .1 1.0 .8 .3 .4 .7 .5 2.7 3.4 3.0 2.0 1.1 -2.9 6.4 2.0 -1.7 -.3 -.1 6.5 1.8 -3.9 2.3 4.4 8.1 2.8 .6 .8 .8 4.0 4.2 .6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.7 -.3 -.8 .4 .5 .9 -.9 .8 .2 .1 .5 -.6 .8 .1 .7 -.1 .2 .5 .3 .3 .0 1.0 .3 -.5 .4 .4 .8 -.2 .1 .6 -.2 .1 .7 .4 .0 .1 -.1 -.4 -.2 .4 .1 .9 .1 .6 -.1 -.7 -.2 .5 .4 .6 -1.3 -.3 .4 .3 .4 -.7 -.5 .1 .5 .9 2.2 -7.8 -1.9 3.0 4.9 2.7 1.8 5.8 .6 5.0 .6 5.0 1.8 1.3 3.1 -6.6 .1 3.1 4.7 5.3 .2 -2.1 1.7 2.5 4.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -.9 .1 .1 .4 -.1 1.2 1.1 .0 .1 -.2 -.4 .0 .2 .2 -.3 .7 .1 .5 -.1 .1 .4 .0 .4 .3 .2 .7 .2 -.8 -.2 -.6 -.3 .2 -.5 .3 1.1 .4 .8 1.6 .4 .1 .4 .8 -.5 -.2 -.6 -.2 .7 .5 .6 .2 .8 .3 -.5 .3 .3 .4 -.1 -.2 .4 3.4 .2 5.5 1.1 .8 -1.5 5.7 2.4 2.6 .9 1.6 2.4 4.9 -.2 1.7 .3 3.5 7.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 1.8 4.2 2.9 1.2 2000 2001 2002 -.4 -.8 .6 .4 -.4 .2 .2 -.5 .4 .4 -.3 .4 .2 -.5 .2 .1 -.5 .3 -.5 .0 .7 -.4 -.3 -.3 .1 -.7 .0 -.6 -.4 -.7 -.3 -.7 .1 -.4 -.5 1.4 -6.0 1.2 3.4 -5.1 3.9 -2.5 -3.7 3.1 -3.6 -6.1 1.4 -4.1 IP (1997=100) 2000 2001 2002 105.2 103.6 99.3 105.6 103.2 99.6 105.8 102.7 99.9 106.2 102.4 100.3 106.5 101.8 100.5 106.6 101.3 100.8 106.0 101.3 101.5 105.6 101.0 101.2 105.7 100.3 101.2 105.1 99.9 100.6 104.8 99.3 100.7 104.4 98.7 105.5 103.2 99.6 106.4 101.8 100.6 105.8 100.9 101.3 104.8 99.3 105.6 101.3 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2000 2001 2002 127.7 129.4 130.2 127.9 129.6 130.3 128.0 129.7 130.3 128.2 129.8 130.3 128.3 129.8 130.4 128.5 129.9 130.4 128.6 130.0 130.4 128.8 130.1 130.5 128.9 130.1 130.5 129.0 130.2 130.6 129.2 130.2 130.6 129.3 130.2 127.9 129.5 130.3 128.3 129.8 130.4 128.8 130.1 130.5 129.2 130.2 128.5 129.9 Utilization (percent) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 84.2 80.5 75.3 71.8 79.3 84.0 80.1 76.5 71.4 79.3 83.6 80.3 75.8 71.9 79.8 81.7 79.7 75.0 72.9 80.1 79.5 80.1 74.2 73.3 80.4 78.3 80.4 73.8 73.7 80.5 77.4 80.8 73.4 74.8 80.6 77.6 80.5 72.8 75.7 80.5 78.9 79.7 72.4 76.6 80.1 79.6 78.9 71.6 77.2 79.9 81.0 77.9 71.3 77.4 80.1 81.2 76.8 70.5 77.7 79.9 83.9 80.3 75.9 71.7 79.5 79.8 80.0 74.3 73.3 80.4 78.0 80.3 72.9 75.7 80.4 80.6 77.9 71.1 77.4 80.0 80.6 79.6 73.6 74.5 80.1 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.6 80.3 79.2 83.7 85.5 79.9 79.7 80.1 84.1 85.0 79.8 79.1 80.2 84.1 85.2 79.7 79.0 80.5 84.4 85.0 79.7 78.9 80.8 84.3 84.4 79.5 78.8 81.2 84.3 84.2 79.0 78.7 81.6 84.5 83.1 79.2 78.6 82.1 84.9 83.6 79.5 78.7 82.1 84.5 83.2 79.1 79.0 83.2 84.8 82.9 79.2 79.3 83.4 85.0 82.9 79.9 79.8 83.7 85.3 83.3 79.8 79.7 79.8 84.0 85.2 79.6 78.9 80.8 84.3 84.5 79.2 78.7 81.9 84.6 83.3 79.4 79.4 83.4 85.1 83.0 79.5 79.2 81.5 84.5 84.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.6 80.2 78.8 81.0 82.3 83.3 79.4 79.3 81.1 82.3 83.5 78.8 79.9 81.1 82.7 83.3 78.9 80.2 81.3 82.9 83.2 79.6 80.4 80.8 83.1 83.4 80.2 80.1 80.8 83.5 83.1 80.1 80.6 81.0 83.4 83.1 80.0 80.2 80.8 83.6 83.1 80.6 80.2 81.2 83.4 82.4 80.4 80.6 81.4 83.7 81.2 80.0 80.8 81.6 84.0 80.6 79.6 80.8 82.0 84.5 83.1 79.5 79.3 81.1 82.4 83.3 79.5 80.2 81.0 83.2 83.1 80.2 80.4 81.0 83.4 81.4 80.0 80.7 81.7 84.1 82.7 79.8 80.2 81.2 83.3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.6 81.7 83.1 83.8 82.4 84.3 82.6 83.8 83.6 82.3 83.9 82.1 83.6 83.6 82.3 83.4 82.5 83.5 83.7 82.1 83.3 82.7 83.3 83.9 82.2 83.3 83.1 83.2 83.0 82.0 82.7 82.7 83.1 82.3 82.1 83.4 82.8 83.6 83.4 82.2 83.3 82.9 84.0 82.8 81.9 82.6 82.6 84.3 83.1 82.3 82.6 83.1 84.3 82.5 82.5 82.7 83.3 84.0 82.2 82.8 84.3 82.1 83.5 83.7 82.3 83.4 82.8 83.3 83.5 82.1 83.1 82.8 83.5 82.9 82.1 82.6 83.0 84.2 82.6 82.5 83.3 82.7 83.6 83.2 82.3 2000 2001 2002 82.4 80.1 76.3 82.6 79.7 76.4 82.6 79.2 76.7 82.9 78.9 77.0 83.0 78.4 77.1 82.9 78.0 77.3 82.4 77.9 77.9 82.0 77.7 77.6 82.0 77.1 77.6 81.5 76.8 77.0 81.1 76.2 77.1 80.8 75.8 82.5 79.6 76.5 82.9 78.4 77.1 82.1 77.6 77.7 81.1 76.3 82.2 78.0 NOTE. Excluded industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. See also note to table 12. 14 Table 15 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual .4 -.6 -2.3 2.5 1.8 -.2 -.5 2.5 -.3 .7 -.9 .3 -.8 .9 .7 -2.3 .3 -.7 1.2 .3 -3.1 .5 -.4 1.3 .2 -1.7 -.6 -.2 .7 .3 -1.4 .2 -.3 1.3 .4 .9 -.2 -.8 .9 .0 1.8 -.6 -.3 1.5 -.4 1.6 -1.2 -1.5 1.0 .3 1.9 -1.2 -.7 .2 .2 .2 -1.9 -.6 .2 .3 .2 -.4 -10.1 8.1 11.5 -20.1 2.2 -3.1 11.6 4.8 -9.2 -1.1 -4.7 13.9 2.1 19.1 -11.9 -9.9 10.7 1.3 -5.0 .0 -6.7 3.6 8.4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.5 1.3 -.8 -.2 .8 -.2 -.5 1.5 .3 -1.1 .7 -.4 .2 .2 .0 .0 .4 .4 .6 .0 .1 .1 .5 -.2 -.8 .0 -.2 .5 -.1 .1 -.3 -.2 .6 .1 -1.3 .5 .5 .4 .1 .8 .2 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.4 .4 1.4 .5 -.3 .6 .4 .5 .3 .0 .4 .8 .4 .4 .2 -.5 4.9 3.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 -.3 6.3 3.1 -3.4 .7 .5 6.1 .8 -4.2 1.7 5.0 9.3 4.2 -.9 1.3 2.1 4.4 4.3 .3 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.3 -.7 -.8 .9 .3 1.4 -.8 1.0 .1 .1 .3 -.8 .9 .0 .9 -.2 .4 .4 .4 .5 .1 .7 .5 -.2 .5 .2 1.0 .0 -.3 .2 -.2 .4 .7 .3 .2 .2 -.1 -.4 -.4 .6 -.1 1.1 -.1 .8 .0 -.8 -.1 .4 .5 .7 -1.3 -.4 .4 .4 .6 -.7 -.3 -.2 .6 .9 3.7 -9.3 -.9 3.8 4.9 2.3 1.3 6.7 .9 6.5 .1 6.7 2.5 .4 3.7 -7.4 .8 1.6 5.3 6.7 -.1 -2.6 2.5 2.5 4.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -1.1 .0 .5 .1 -.3 1.1 1.2 -.1 .3 -.2 -.5 .2 .1 -.1 -.4 1.0 .0 .7 .0 -.2 .4 .1 .2 .5 .3 .9 .4 -1.0 -.4 -.9 .1 .0 -.6 .0 .9 .3 1.2 1.9 .7 .5 .4 .7 -.6 -.2 -.6 -.3 .6 .8 .7 -.1 .7 .5 -.3 .5 .3 .6 .0 -.1 .3 3.1 -1.2 6.3 2.6 .4 -2.4 6.4 2.9 1.9 1.1 .3 4.5 5.5 -.4 1.2 .4 3.3 7.2 3.1 5.1 2.5 1.6 4.8 3.4 1.4 2000 2001 2002 -.3 -.7 .6 .3 -.5 .1 .5 -.5 .2 .3 -.3 .2 -.1 -.5 .3 .2 -.6 .4 -.4 .1 .4 -.7 -.6 .0 .2 -.6 -.2 -.7 -.7 -.5 -.6 -.4 .0 -.7 -.5 1.5 -7.1 1.1 2.7 -4.9 2.8 -3.0 -3.8 2.8 -5.5 -6.5 1.3 -4.9 IP (1997=100) 2000 2001 2002 106.1 103.4 99.1 106.4 102.9 99.2 106.9 102.4 99.4 107.1 102.1 99.5 107.1 101.7 99.9 107.2 101.1 100.2 106.8 101.2 100.6 106.0 100.6 100.6 106.2 100.1 100.4 105.5 99.4 99.9 104.9 99.0 99.9 104.1 98.5 106.4 102.9 99.2 107.2 101.6 99.9 106.3 100.6 100.6 104.8 98.9 106.2 101.0 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2000 2001 2002 130.7 132.4 132.7 130.9 132.5 132.7 131.0 132.5 132.6 131.2 132.6 132.6 131.4 132.6 132.6 131.5 132.7 132.6 131.7 132.7 132.6 131.8 132.7 132.6 132.0 132.7 132.6 132.1 132.7 132.6 132.2 132.7 132.6 132.3 132.7 130.8 132.5 132.7 131.4 132.6 132.6 131.8 132.7 132.6 132.2 132.7 131.6 132.6 Utilization (percent) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 82.8 78.0 71.3 69.8 77.8 82.5 77.5 73.0 69.7 78.3 81.7 77.6 72.3 70.3 78.8 79.7 77.7 71.8 71.2 79.0 77.1 78.0 71.4 72.1 79.0 75.6 77.5 71.2 72.6 79.2 74.5 77.5 70.9 73.6 79.4 75.0 77.3 70.3 74.2 79.3 76.2 76.7 70.1 75.4 78.8 77.3 75.6 69.0 76.2 79.0 78.6 74.6 68.6 76.3 79.0 78.6 73.1 68.1 76.5 79.1 82.3 77.7 72.2 69.9 78.3 77.5 77.7 71.4 72.0 79.0 75.2 77.1 70.4 74.4 79.1 78.2 74.4 68.6 76.3 79.0 78.3 76.8 70.7 73.2 78.9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 78.6 79.6 79.1 83.6 86.1 78.3 79.1 80.2 83.8 85.0 78.8 78.7 80.2 84.0 84.9 78.6 78.9 80.5 84.6 84.8 78.6 78.9 80.8 84.4 83.9 78.5 78.7 81.1 84.3 83.9 78.2 78.5 81.5 84.4 82.6 78.4 78.8 81.7 84.5 83.2 78.5 78.9 82.0 84.7 82.7 78.1 79.1 83.1 85.0 82.3 78.5 79.3 83.5 85.2 82.1 78.7 79.9 83.8 85.5 82.1 78.5 79.1 79.9 83.8 85.3 78.6 78.9 80.8 84.4 84.2 78.4 78.7 81.8 84.5 82.8 78.4 79.4 83.5 85.2 82.2 78.5 79.0 81.5 84.5 83.6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.8 78.8 77.7 80.2 81.0 82.8 78.1 78.4 80.1 81.0 83.0 77.3 79.0 80.0 81.7 82.7 77.5 79.2 80.2 82.0 82.6 77.9 79.5 80.0 82.3 82.6 78.6 79.5 79.7 82.3 82.3 78.8 80.0 79.8 82.4 82.3 78.6 79.6 79.5 82.8 82.1 79.4 79.4 80.0 82.7 81.3 79.2 79.6 80.3 83.1 80.2 78.8 79.8 80.5 83.4 79.5 78.5 79.5 80.8 84.0 82.6 78.1 78.4 80.1 81.2 82.6 78.0 79.4 80.0 82.2 82.3 79.0 79.6 79.8 82.6 80.3 78.9 79.6 80.5 83.5 81.9 78.5 79.3 80.1 82.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.0 80.3 81.8 83.1 81.3 83.6 81.0 82.6 82.7 81.4 83.2 80.4 82.6 82.5 81.2 82.7 81.0 82.3 82.8 81.0 82.4 81.1 82.1 82.8 81.3 82.4 81.7 82.2 81.7 80.8 81.5 81.5 81.9 81.0 80.6 82.0 81.6 82.6 82.4 81.1 82.2 81.8 82.9 81.7 80.8 81.5 81.4 83.1 82.1 81.2 81.3 81.8 83.2 81.7 81.5 81.3 82.1 82.9 81.4 81.6 83.6 80.5 82.3 82.8 81.3 82.5 81.2 82.2 82.4 81.0 81.9 81.6 82.5 81.7 80.8 81.4 81.7 83.1 81.7 81.4 82.3 81.3 82.5 82.2 81.1 2000 2001 2002 81.2 78.1 74.7 81.3 77.7 74.8 81.5 77.3 74.9 81.7 77.0 75.1 81.5 76.6 75.3 81.5 76.2 75.6 81.1 76.3 75.9 80.4 75.8 75.9 80.5 75.4 75.8 79.9 74.9 75.4 79.3 74.6 75.4 78.7 74.2 81.3 77.7 74.8 81.6 76.6 75.3 80.7 75.8 75.9 79.3 74.6 80.7 76.2 NOTE. See note to table 12. 1. See note on cover page. 15 EXPLANATORY NOTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 1997. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 295 individual series based on the 1997 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on either production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey 16 of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: IA m IA m–1 Imp m–1 Im–1p m–1 Imp m Im–1p m The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by percentage point (0.05 x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 48 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2001) Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 24 37 47 48 Production-worker hours 26 26 26 26 Electric power use 0 22 22 22 IP data received 50 85 95 96 IP data estimated 50 15 5 4 NOTE––The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (24 percent out of total of 48 percent). Of the 24 percent, about two–thirds (15 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. About 4 percent of the source data for monthly IP––all physical product measures––are available too late for direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an annual historical revision. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 2002; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2002. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–99 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–99 period. In most cases (about 83 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. CAPACITY UTILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 85 detailed industries (67 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 18 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 78 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html). Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about 17 the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Perspective. Over the 1972–2001 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.5 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 80.4 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 6 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. ELECTRIC POWER Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are generally collected at the 4-digit NAICS and 3-digit SIC level for mining and manufacturing. Aggregates for 3-digit industries, as well as for total mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial electric power use, are computed. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the nondefense nuclear material series (part of NAICS 3251) in total IP is considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition, aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data for the 3- and 4-digit industries are available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1997 Census of Manufactures (the most recent available) and recent reporting panel statistics suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 50 percent of the overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 4-digit industry level to the latest available data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures. Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 4-digit NAICS industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable for some reason, responses are estimated. Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 4-digit NAICS level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure (Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year adjustment is also made where appropriate. REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in early December 2002 will be described in an article published in an upcoming Federal Reserve Bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2002: January 16, February 15, March 15, April 16, May 15, June 14, July 16, August 15, September 17, October 17, November 15, and December 17. 2003: January 17, February 14, March 14, April 15, May 15, June 17, July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 14, and December 16. 18
@FedFRASER