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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
G.17 (419)

For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST)
December 17, 2002

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in November after a revised drop of 0.6 percent in October. At
110.8 percent of its 1997 average, output was 1.8 percent above its level in November 2001. Manufacturing output edged
up 0.1 percent in November; the increase was led by a sharp rebound in the production of motor vehicles and parts.
Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output declined 0.3 percent in both November and October. Capacity
utilization for total industry edged up to 75.6 percent, a level 0.5 percentage point above that of November 2001 and
5.9 percentage points below its 1972–2001 average.

(over)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
1997=100

Percent change

Industrial production

2002
Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

Total index
Previous estimates

111.3
111.3

111.3
111.3

110.7
110.4

Major market groups
Final Products
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Nonindustrial supplies
Construction
Materials

107.6
107.8
108.1
115.4
104.8
113.6

107.6
108.1
106.8
115.8
104.8
113.4

Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below)
Previous estimates
Mining
Utilities

112.4
112.3
93.9
110.4

112.2
112.1
92.1
113.3

Capacity utilization

Average
1972–2001

2002
Aug.r

Sept.r

110.8

-.2
-.2

.0
.0

-.6
-.8

.1

1.8

106.9
107.3
106.1
115.3
104.5
112.7

107.4
108.2
105.6
114.7
103.5
112.8

-.3
-.7
.7
-.2
.4
-.2

.0
.3
-1.1
.4
-.1
-.2

-.6
-.7
-.7
-.5
-.3
-.6

.4
.8
-.4
-.5
-.9
.1

.9
2.6
-3.7
1.6
.6
2.8

111.7
111.3
92.0
111.3

111.7

.1
.0
-.5
-2.9

-.2
-.2
-1.9
2.7

-.5
-.7
-.2
-1.8

.1

1.4

1.3
.0

-2.8
8.4
Capacity
growth
Nov. ’01 to
Nov. ’02

1982
low

1988–89
high

93.2
111.3

Percent of capacity
2001
2002
Nov.
Aug.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

Nov. ’01 to
Nov. ’02

Total industry
Previous estimates

81.5

70.8

85.1

75.1
75.1

76.1
76.1

76.1
76.1

75.5
75.4

75.6

1.1

Manufacturing (see note below)
Previous estimates
Mining
Utilities

80.4

68.6

85.5

73.4

74.3

74.2

73.8

73.8

.9

87.0
86.7

78.6
77.2

85.6
92.6

86.8
84.3

85.3
86.5

83.7
88.4

83.5
86.3

84.6
85.9

-.2
6.5

86.5
82.4
78.7

77.2
67.9
71.3

88.6
86.2
83.1

83.2
76.2
72.0

83.9
78.4
71.7

83.0
78.6
71.5

82.5
78.0
71.0

83.0
77.8
71.2

-.6
1.6
.9

Stage-of-process groups
Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

NOTE– The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the industrial sector, which the Federal Reserve defines as manufacturing,
mining, and electric and gas utilities. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS,
definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be
manufacturing and included in the industrial sector.

Market Groups
The output of consumer goods rose 0.8 percent in November. A 2.8 percent rise in the production of
durables was led by a 4.6 percent increase in automotive products. The index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting
moved up 0.8 percent. A 1.3 percent rise in the output of energy products pulled up the nondurable consumer goods
category, which edged up 0.1 percent. The production of nondurable non-energy products slipped 0.1 percent; declines in
the output indexes for foods and tobacco and for paper products more than offset increases in the output of chemical
products and clothing.
The production of business equipment declined 0.4 percent. An increase in the production of information
processing equipment was more than offset by further decreases in industrial and other equipment and in transit
equipment. Declines in the production of heavy trucks, medium trucks, and commercial aircraft contributed to a
1.2 percent reduction in the output of transit equipment; the index was 15.7 percent lower than its level in November
2001.
The output of defense and space equipment edged up further and was more than 3 percent higher than its
year-ago level. After having changed little, on balance, over the previous few months, the output of construction supplies
dropped 0.9 percent. The production of business supplies dipped 0.2 percent.
The production of industrial materials rose 0.1 percent. Both the durable and nondurable groups had slight
declines, but energy materials increased 0.8 percent. A bounceback in the extraction of oil and natural gas, which had
been curtailed in September and October by storms in the Gulf Coast region, more than accounted for the November gain.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in November. The overall factory operating rate held even at
73.8 percent, a level 0.4 percentage point above its year-ago level and 6.6 percentage points below its 1972–2001
average. Bolstered by a 3.9 percent increase in the production of motor vehicles and parts, the output of durable goods
rose 0.3 percent. In the motor vehicles category, the indexes for both autos and light trucks registered large increases,
while the index for medium and heavy trucks registered a sizable decline. Among other durable goods categories, the
indexes for computer and electronic products and for electrical equipment, appliances, and components registered gains,
while the indexes for all other major categories fell. The largest declines were for fabricated metal products, wood
products, primary metals, and aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment. Among nondurables, a
3.3 percent increase in the output of petroleum and coal products reversed the large declines in the two preceding months.
Increases in the output of distillate fuel oil and automotive gasoline were largely responsible for the rise. The index for
plastics and rubber products fell 1.2 percent, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. The production of other
manufacturing industries (publishing and logging) decreased 0.7 percent.
Production at mines climbed 1.3 percent in November; the utilization rate rose 1.1 percentage points, to
84.6 percent, a level 2.4 percentage points below its 1972–2001 average. The output of utilities was unchanged. The
operating rate at utilities fell 0.4 percentage point; at 85.9 percent, the rate is 1.6 percentage points above its year-ago
level and 0.8 percentage point below its 1972–2001 average. Looking across stage-of-process groups, utilization rose
0.5 percentage point for industries in the crude category, fell 0.2 percentage point for operators at the primary and
semifinished level of processing, and edged up 0.2 percentage point for processors of finished goods.
[In Text Box :] Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
On December 5, the Federal Reserve Board published a revision to the index of industrial production (IP),
the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization, and the data on industrial use of electric power. The revised
estimates are classified according to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); previously, the
estimates from 1987 forward were classified according to the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system.
NAICS changes the SIC system’s industry composition of manufacturing. To preserve the continuity of the production,
capacity, and utilization rate measures featured in the Federal Reserve’s G.17 statistical release, portions of SIC 27
(printing and publishing) and SIC 24 (lumber and products) that are not classified in manufacturing under NAICS
continue to be included in the overall IP index and capacity utilization.
2

The revised production indexes are based on annual output measures that were constructed by reclassifying
the establishments in historical Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries under NAICS; annual output indexes
constructed this way maximize the reliability and historical consistency of the IP industry detail. Data going back to
1972 were restated using NAICS. The monthly indicators used in current IP indexes were incorporated into the revised
IP indexes as far back as the data allow.
The revised indexes are now expressed as percentages of output in 1997, beginning at the start date of each
index: 1919 for total and manufacturing IP, 1948 for manufacturing capacity, and 1967 for total industrial capacity. The
Federal Reserve’s accompanying indexes of industrial electric power use, which began in 1972, also were restated to
accord with NAICS, rebased to use 1997 as a comparison year, and revised to incorporate previously unavailable data.
The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical
of annual revisions. The updating of source data for IP in the 2002 annual revision included annual data from the 2000
Annual Survey of Manufactures of the Bureau of the Census and from selected editions of its 2000 and 2001 Current
Industrial Reports. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except
fuels) for 2000 and 2001 were also introduced. The updating included revisions to the monthly indicator for each
industry (either physical product data, production-worker hours, or electric power usage) and revisions to seasonal
factors.
Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate preliminary data from the 2001 Survey of Plant
Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along with other new data on capacity from the U.S.
Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. The statistics on the industrial use of electric
power incorporate additional information received from utilities for the past few years and include some data from the
2000 Annual Survey of Manufactures.
The revision release and revised data are available on the Board’s web site, at
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data are also available through the web site of the U.S. Department of
Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone
202-452-3197).
Tables
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change
Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change
Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes
Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes
Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization
Industrial Capacity
Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies
Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups
Electric Power Use
Historical Statistics: Total Industry
Historical Statistics: Manufacturing
Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries

Further detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/).

3

1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization
200
185

Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100
Manufacturing IP
Total IP

200
185

160

160

135

135
Capacity

110

110

85

85
Production

Detail: 2000 to present

122

60

60
118
Production
114
110

2000

35

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

2001

1995

2002

106

2000

Percent of capacity

100
95

35

100
95

Utilization
85

85

75

75

65

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER). The line plotted at March 2001 is the most recent business cycle peak.
Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS,
definition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory
publishing--that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector.

4

65

2. Industrial production and capacity utilization
Industrial production

Ratio scale, 1997 = 100

125
115

125
115

Excluding
high-technology
industries

95

95

75

75
Total IP

55

35

55

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Industrial production

2000

35

Percent change from year earlier
15

15
Total IP

10

10

5

5

0

0
Excluding the
contribution
of high-technology
industries

-5
-10
-15

1970

1975

Industrial production

1980

Ratio scale, 1997 = 100

550

550

450
350

1985

450
Semiconductors

1990

1995

Capacity utilization
100
95

2000

-5
-10
-15

Percent of capacity
100

Excluding

95

high-technology

350

industries
250

Computers

85

85

150

75

75

65

150

250

65

Communications eq.

High-technology industries
50

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

50

55

1990

1995

2000

Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components
(NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342).
The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The line plotted at March 2001
is the most recent business cycle peak.

5

55

Table 1

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

Item
It

2001
proportion1

Annual rate
2002
Q1
Q2

Monthly rate

1999

2000

2001

100.00

4.9

2.7

-5.7

-5.8

1.4

4.4

3.4

-.2

.0

-.6

.1

1.8

59.77
29.37
7.11
3.90
.38
1.25
1.58
22.26
18.48
9.87
1.12
4.71
2.23
3.78

3.3
2.6
5.7
5.4
19.7
2.3
4.3
1.4
1.2
.3
-2.8
4.8
2.0
3.0

3.2
1.1
-2.0
-4.8
9.2
-1.0
.6
2.2
1.1
-.4
-6.2
6.5
1.0
7.6

-5.4
-2.1
-3.0
1.7
-13.5
-4.6
-9.5
-1.8
-1.0
-2.2
-12.6
4.8
-.3
-5.2

-6.3
-3.2
-2.9
-3.1
35.5
-3.3
-9.8
-3.4
-3.1
-2.4
-11.5
-3.0
-4.4
-4.6

.8
4.4
12.0
15.0
22.2
9.6
3.8
2.0
.4
5.4
-1.1
-4.3
-8.9
10.4

2.8
2.9
8.4
14.3
-29.7
4.0
8.0
1.2
-2.2
-.1
-2.7
-7.6
-2.6
19.7

2.2
2.2
6.8
16.9
-1.6
-10.1
-2.5
.7
.4
-3.5
-3.7
6.4
7.5
2.5

-.3
-.7
-.6
.0
-1.2
-2.3
-1.0
-.7
-.4
-.6
-2.5
-.5
1.1
-2.1

.1
.3
-.3
-1.0
7.1
.3
-.5
.6
.5
-.2
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.1

-.6
-.7
-1.2
-2.6
2.9
.0
.6
-.5
-.3
.1
-2.5
-.7
-.1
-1.7

.2
.8
2.8
4.6
1.7
.8
-.5
.1
-.1
-.6
.5
.9
-.6
1.3

1.1
2.6
7.4
11.7
3.1
.8
2.7
1.0
-.4
-.2
-3.7
-.4
-.2
8.3

Business equipment
Transit
Information processing
Industrial and other
Defense and space equipment

10.72
2.03
3.60
5.09
2.14

4.0
-10.2
18.7
.2
-5.2

7.9
-8.6
20.0
6.3
-.4

-14.3
-12.1
-13.4
-15.7
.0

-16.0
-22.0
-15.5
-13.9
.3

-5.5
-18.8
-1.0
-3.1
-.9

-1.4
-18.6
-.5
5.1
3.7

-1.8
-8.6
-4.4
2.4
4.6

.7
1.1
.1
1.0
.7

-1.1
-2.0
-1.1
-.9
.1

-.7
-2.4
.6
-.9
.7

-.4
-1.2
.4
-.6
.1

-3.7
-15.7
-.8
-1.0
3.3

Construction supplies
Business supplies

6.75
10.31

2.1
7.6

.7
6.3

-6.0
-5.1

-7.8
-3.7

1.7
-1.6

4.4
6.6

1.3
5.9

.4
-.5

-.1
.7

-.3
-.6

-.9
-.2

.6
2.3

40.23
30.54
18.86
3.90
6.69
8.28
11.68
.83
2.97
4.06
9.69

7.3
8.8
11.8
7.0
23.2
3.9
3.7
.2
2.7
7.4
1.3

2.0
2.3
5.6
-6.3
23.4
-3.5
-3.5
-9.6
-3.8
-4.1
1.0

-6.0
-6.9
-7.7
-3.7
-10.2
-7.2
-5.4
-12.6
-5.6
-5.4
-3.4

-5.1
-6.5
-7.6
-3.9
-5.9
-10.8
-4.7
-16.9
-6.5
-4.3
-.7

2.3
2.1
3.5
17.9
-2.0
1.1
-.2
1.6
-4.4
4.5
2.9

6.9
7.5
8.0
6.7
9.7
7.1
6.7
7.9
5.7
10.6
4.9

5.3
5.4
5.6
8.5
7.9
2.4
5.0
1.6
9.5
3.3
5.0

-.2
.2
.5
-.9
1.2
.7
-.2
-2.3
.3
-.7
-1.7

-.2
-.2
-.4
.1
-.3
-.8
.3
.4
.3
.2
-.1

-.6
-.4
-.1
-.8
-.2
.3
-.7
-.7
.0
-.6
-1.3

.1
-.2
-.2
1.4
.1
-1.2
-.1
-.5
.0
-.4
.8

2.8
3.0
3.8
8.7
3.7
1.3
1.8
1.8
2.4
3.1
2.0

321
327
331
332
333
334

84.71
79.51
44.53
1.40
2.40
2.45
5.98
5.62
9.52

5.5
5.6
7.8
1.8
-.1
3.9
2.6
.3
30.6

2.5
2.6
5.4
-6.7
-.2
-9.6
.5
4.8
30.7

-6.1
-6.2
-8.2
-3.1
.1
-11.6
-7.8
-17.8
-9.6

-6.1
-6.2
-8.0
-7.7
-.9
-25.1
-7.2
-18.5
-4.6

1.2
2.0
2.1
6.0
-.3
9.6
.6
.6
.9

3.5
3.9
4.9
2.4
3.4
3.2
4.6
5.0
6.4

3.1
3.0
3.8
3.8
5.1
1.5
1.3
.3
5.6

.1
.0
.4
.6
.8
3.1
-.4
1.1
.7

-.2
-.3
-.6
-.2
.9
-3.0
.0
-1.3
.1

-.5
-.5
-.4
-1.0
-.1
1.8
.2
-1.6
.4

.1
.1
.3
-1.5
-.2
-1.1
-1.5
-.9
.7

1.4
1.6
2.2
.8
1.7
.8
.9
-1.9
4.9

335
3361–3

2.45
6.45

2.9
5.7

2.7
-8.4

-10.9
-1.2

-6.1
-3.8

-4.3
18.0

2.7
14.7

-2.4
18.1

-.4
-.1

-1.4
-.8

.8
-2.4

.7
3.9

-.5
12.6

3364–9
337
339

3.58
1.69
2.98

-11.2
2.3
2.0

-4.9
.7
3.8

-5.0
-8.9
-5.7

-11.7
-5.1
1.3

-17.5
.4
1.8

-13.5
-1.7
9.1

-7.6
-1.6
-.6

.7
-.9
-.3

-.7
1.2
-.9

.0
-.9
-.3

-1.1
-.9
-.1

-11.0
-2.3
2.9

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

34.98
11.19
1.33
1.21
3.11
2.61
1.78
10.01
3.74

2.5
.2
1.9
-3.1
2.1
.3
1.6
5.5
6.2

-1.2
-.4
-6.3
-5.9
-4.0
-.8
-.5
.4
-1.9

-3.4
-1.8
-12.4
-12.9
-5.7
-5.6
-.3
-1.1
-5.7

-3.9
-1.8
-16.2
-11.8
-9.9
-1.1
1.9
-1.5
-9.0

1.8
5.1
3.2
-1.5
-5.7
2.5
7.4
-.9
3.5

2.5
.1
5.8
-2.8
11.2
-3.7
.2
1.5
11.9

1.9
-2.9
-2.3
-3.3
6.4
12.9
-4.2
5.5
2.7

-.5
-.5
-1.6
-2.4
.6
.3
-.3
-.7
-.2

.1
-.2
-.5
.9
.3
.4
-1.8
.8
-.1

-.5
.0
-.5
-2.2
-.7
-.5
-1.0
-.7
-.5

-.1
-.5
-.1
.5
.0
.0
3.3
.2
-1.2

.9
-.1
.5
-3.6
2.5
1.7
1.0
1.0
3.1

1133,5111

5.19

3.8

.4

-3.9

-4.4

-9.7

-2.2

5.2

.7

1.1

-.6

-.7

-1.9

21

6.32
8.98
7.61
1.36

.2
2.0
1.7
4.1

.8
6.0
4.8
12.8

-.6
-5.4
-4.0
-12.5

-3.5
-4.7
-2.9
-14.2

-6.2
8.3
8.7
7.5

-2.5
18.6
15.5
40.4

.1
8.4
10.7
-5.6

-.5
-2.9
-3.1
-1.8

-1.9
2.7
3.2
-.9

-.2
-1.8
-2.3
1.7

1.3
.0
-.3
2.0

-2.8
8.4
6.7
19.2

Total IP

MARKET GROUPS
Final products and nonindustrial supplies
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Home electronics
Appliances, furniture, carpeting
Miscellaneous goods
Nondurable
Non-energy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy

Materials
Non-energy
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Other
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Energy

INDUSTRY GROUPS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aerospace and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities 2211,2
Electric
Natural gas

2211
2212

Q3r

2002
Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

Nov. ’01
to
Nov. ’02

2001
Q4

NOTE. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation
pt denotes part of an NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the
products category, oil and gas drilling and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable
materials are not shown separately.
1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year.
r Revised. p Preliminary.

6

Table 2

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

Item
It

2001
proportion

Annual rate
2002
Q1
Q2

Monthly rate

1999

2000

2001

100.00

4.9

2.7

-5.7

-5.8

1.4

4.4

3.4

-.2

.0

-.6

.1

1.8

Energy
Consumer products
Commercial products
Oil and gas well drilling
Converted fuel
Primary materials

15.97
3.78
2.15
.35
3.42
6.27

1.9
3.0
1.8
9.7
2.4
.4

3.7
7.6
7.0
29.4
5.3
-1.3

-3.5
-5.2
.3
-10.9
-7.7
-1.0

-3.3
-4.6
-4.9
-42.3
-3.2
.7

3.4
10.4
.8
-39.7
3.9
2.4

9.2
19.7
15.6
-26.5
4.5
5.2

4.8
2.5
6.9
13.7
11.0
1.7

-2.0
-2.1
-3.1
.4
-2.1
-1.4

.6
1.1
2.9
.7
1.2
-.9

-1.4
-1.7
-1.8
1.5
-2.1
-.8

.8
1.3
.3
-4.4
-.2
1.4

3.6
8.3
5.6
-18.5
2.7
1.7

Non-energy

84.03

5.4

2.5

-6.1

-6.3

1.0

3.6

3.2

.1

-.1

-.4

.0

1.5

3341
3342

6.64
1.30
2.35

41.6
19.6
27.0

40.0
17.7
30.3

-9.6
-5.9
-20.2

-1.5
18.7
-27.4

2.5
44.6
-22.2

11.9
4.2
-5.7

7.4
9.4
-21.3

1.1
1.4
-.8

-.2
1.5
-3.7

.6
2.0
-.3

.6
1.5
-1.4

6.9
19.4
-16.6

334412–9

2.99

62.0

55.8

-3.4

13.3

5.6

30.2

30.5

2.2

1.2

.4

1.5

19.7

77.39

1.9

-1.2

-5.6

-6.8

.8

2.8

2.8

.0

-.1

-.5

.0

1.0

6.45
2.69
3.41

5.7
2.6
7.8

-8.4
-12.0
-4.3

-1.2
2.0
-2.1

-3.8
-4.9
-1.5

18.0
22.7
14.7

14.7
18.1
10.3

18.1
26.7
10.1

-.1
-.7
-.3

-.8
-1.4
-.1

-2.4
-4.5
-.9

3.9
6.6
2.2

12.6
15.7
9.6

Excluding motor vehicles and parts
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials

70.94
21.94
7.76
6.63
9.53
25.30

1.5
1.8
-2.7
1.9
2.0
3.1

-.5
.8
5.4
.3
1.2
-2.8

-6.0
-2.2
-13.7
-5.9
-4.9
-7.3

-7.0
-3.8
-15.9
-7.7
-4.3
-8.5

-.7
1.2
-9.3
1.8
-1.7
.0

1.7
-1.5
-3.9
4.4
5.1
5.3

1.4
-.6
-2.9
1.5
4.9
3.0

.0
-.6
.7
.4
-.6
.1

.0
.4
-.9
.0
.8
-.3

-.3
-.2
-.9
-.3
-.7
-.3

-.4
-.1
-.6
-.9
-.3
-.6

-.1
-.2
-5.9
.7
1.5
.9

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

93.36
78.06
38.10

1.8
1.9
1.2

-.4
-1.1
-1.3

-5.2
-5.6
-7.8

-6.1
-6.5
-9.2

1.2
1.1
1.9

3.9
2.8
3.6

3.1
2.8
3.1

-.3
.0
.3

.0
-.2
-.6

-.7
-.5
-.6

.1
.0
.2

1.4
1.0
1.3

Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

93.55
78.25
38.29

4.9
5.4
8.0

3.5
3.5
7.9

-6.0
-6.5
-9.3

-6.0
-6.3
-8.7

.3
-.1
-.6

3.7
2.5
3.0

2.4
1.8
1.1

-.3
.1
.5

.1
-.1
-.5

-.4
-.3
-.1

-.2
-.3
-.5

1.0
.5
.3

Non-energy materials, stage–of–process
components
Finished processors
Semifinished and primary processors

14.39
16.15

13.7
4.2

8.0
-3.1

-7.9
-5.9

-6.1
-6.9

3.1
1.2

8.0
7.0

8.2
3.0

.2
.3

.0
-.2

-.4
-.3

.5
-.7

4.8
1.5

Total industry

Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
Excluding selected high-technology
industries
Motor vehicles and parts
Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle parts

3361–3
3361
3363

Q3r

2002
Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

Nov. ’01
to
Nov. ’02

2001
Q4

1. See note on cover page.

Table 3

MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES
Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
2001
average

2001
Q4

2002
Q1

Q2

Q3

2002
Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Total
Autos
Trucks
Light
Medium and heavy

11.42
4.88
6.55
6.29
.25

11.61
4.80
6.81
6.59
.22

12.20
5.24
6.96
6.72
.23

12.39
5.15
7.24
6.98
.27

12.96
5.15
7.81
7.52
.29

12.90
5.07
7.82
7.53
.30

12.76
4.90
7.86
7.56
.30

12.19
4.83
7.37
7.11
.26

12.94
5.17
7.77
7.56
.21

MEMO
Autos and light trucks

11.17

11.39

11.96

12.13

12.67

12.60

12.46

11.93

12.73

Item
It

NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site,
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm

7

Table 4

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY
1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted
2001
proportion

Item
It

2002
Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

100.00

109.6

110.1

110.4

110.8

111.6

111.3

111.3

110.7

110.8

59.77
29.37
7.11
3.90
.38
1.25
1.58
22.26
18.48
9.87
1.12
4.71
2.23
3.78

108.9
107.4
115.7
121.7
150.2
108.1
98.2
104.4
103.5
100.8
74.4
120.1
107.2
109.4

109.1
107.5
116.5
123.8
139.9
108.2
98.1
104.4
102.8
100.4
72.7
118.5
106.0
112.8

109.3
107.3
117.2
124.2
143.8
109.1
98.9
103.9
102.2
100.0
72.9
116.8
106.2
112.5

109.6
107.8
118.6
127.4
135.3
107.5
100.2
104.1
102.8
100.2
72.9
118.3
107.2
110.9

110.1
108.5
120.0
130.6
137.0
106.9
99.2
104.6
102.8
99.8
73.2
119.5
107.1
114.0

109.8
107.8
119.3
130.6
135.4
104.5
98.3
103.8
102.4
99.2
71.3
119.0
108.4
111.6

109.9
108.1
118.9
129.3
145.0
104.9
97.8
104.4
102.8
99.0
72.1
120.6
109.8
112.8

109.3
107.3
117.4
126.0
149.1
104.9
98.4
103.8
102.5
99.1
70.3
119.8
109.7
110.9

109.4
108.2
120.7
131.8
151.6
105.7
97.9
104.0
102.4
98.5
70.6
120.9
109.1
112.4

Business equipment
Transit
Information processing
Industrial and other
Defense and space equipment

10.72
2.03
3.60
5.09
2.14

107.8
84.8
155.5
90.3
99.8

107.7
83.2
154.7
91.1
99.9

108.0
82.0
154.9
91.9
100.6

108.0
81.1
154.9
92.2
101.2

107.3
80.2
153.5
92.0
101.2

108.1
81.1
153.7
92.9
101.9

106.8
79.5
152.0
92.0
102.0

106.1
77.5
152.9
91.2
102.7

105.6
76.6
153.5
90.7
102.8

Construction supplies
Business supplies

6.75
10.31

104.0
119.7

104.0
120.7

104.6
121.5

104.5
121.8

104.4
123.2

104.8
122.6

104.8
123.5

104.5
122.7

103.5
122.5

40.23
30.54
18.86
3.90
6.69
8.28
11.68
.83
2.97
4.06
9.69

110.7
114.0
125.8
109.2
177.6
96.0
95.9
77.7
91.9
98.8
97.9

111.6
115.0
127.1
110.8
179.8
96.7
96.5
77.8
93.3
99.6
98.6

112.2
115.8
127.8
110.1
182.3
97.2
97.3
78.2
94.8
100.4
98.5

112.6
116.4
128.6
110.4
183.6
97.9
97.6
78.5
93.6
100.6
98.6

113.8
117.2
129.4
113.4
184.2
97.7
98.4
79.6
95.8
101.3
101.0

113.6
117.4
130.0
112.3
186.3
98.3
98.2
77.8
96.1
100.7
99.3

113.4
117.3
129.5
112.4
185.7
97.6
98.4
78.1
96.4
100.9
99.1

112.7
116.8
129.3
111.5
185.3
97.8
97.7
77.5
96.3
100.4
97.8

112.8
116.6
129.0
113.0
185.5
96.7
97.6
77.2
96.4
100.0
98.6

321
327
331
332
333
334

84.71
79.51
44.53
1.40
2.40
2.45
5.98
5.62
9.52

110.7
111.0
119.8
101.7
106.6
85.1
98.2
88.0
216.9

111.0
111.4
120.5
100.8
107.4
84.6
98.4
88.3
217.9

111.4
111.9
121.2
101.0
107.7
85.9
99.7
88.5
220.0

111.9
112.2
121.8
102.2
106.6
86.2
99.3
88.9
220.8

112.3
112.7
122.2
101.9
107.7
85.0
99.7
88.4
221.5

112.4
112.8
122.7
102.5
108.5
87.6
99.3
89.4
223.0

112.2
112.5
122.0
102.4
109.5
85.0
99.3
88.2
223.3

111.7
112.0
121.5
101.3
109.3
86.5
99.5
86.8
224.2

111.7
112.1
121.8
99.8
109.2
85.5
98.0
86.1
225.8

335
3361–3

2.45
6.45

96.8
113.3

97.2
115.9

98.9
115.8

98.7
118.6

98.4
122.1

98.0
122.0

96.6
121.0

97.4
118.1

98.0
122.7

3364–9
337
339

3.58
1.69
2.98

89.5
101.7
107.4

88.3
101.8
109.6

87.6
101.5
110.2

86.9
101.6
110.7

85.7
101.4
110.6

86.3
100.5
110.2

85.7
101.7
109.3

85.7
100.8
108.9

84.8
100.0
108.8

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

34.98
11.19
1.33
1.21
3.11
2.61
1.78
10.01
3.74

99.5
101.4
83.0
74.1
91.6
95.2
103.5
105.2
105.1

99.5
101.0
82.9
72.5
93.0
95.5
104.2
105.1
105.7

99.7
100.6
83.6
72.7
95.0
96.2
103.4
105.0
106.7

99.9
100.9
83.4
72.6
94.7
95.5
102.4
105.7
107.4

100.4
100.5
83.9
73.0
95.2
98.4
103.0
106.9
107.5

100.0
100.0
82.5
71.2
95.8
98.6
102.7
106.2
107.3

100.1
99.8
82.1
71.8
96.1
99.0
100.9
107.0
107.1

99.6
99.8
81.6
70.2
95.4
98.5
99.9
106.2
106.6

99.5
99.3
81.6
70.6
95.4
98.5
103.2
106.4
105.4

1133,5111

5.19

105.0

104.1

104.2

105.5

105.0

105.8

107.0

106.4

105.7

21

6.32
8.98
7.61
1.36

93.6
108.0
110.1
96.9

93.4
110.6
112.5
100.2

93.4
110.1
111.2
104.4

93.5
110.1
111.4
103.2

94.4
113.7
115.7
102.7

93.9
110.4
112.2
100.8

92.1
113.3
115.8
99.9

92.0
111.3
113.1
101.6

93.2
111.3
112.8
103.6

Total IP

MARKET GROUPS
Final products and nonindustrial supplies
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Home electronics
Appliances, furniture, carpeting
Miscellaneous goods
Nondurable
Non-energy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy

Materials
Non-energy
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Other
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Energy

INDUSTRY GROUPS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aerospace and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities 2211,2
Electric
Natural gas

2211
2212

NOTE. See notes to table 1.

8

Table 5

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES
1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted
2001
proportion

Item
It

2002
Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

100.00

109.6

110.1

110.4

110.8

111.6

111.3

111.3

110.7

110.8

Energy
Consumer products
Commercial products
Oil and gas well drilling
Converted fuel
Primary materials

15.97
3.78
2.15
3.42
6.27

102.5
109.4
114.7
91.7
103.2
94.6

103.9
112.8
117.1
87.0
102.5
95.9

103.7
112.5
116.9
86.6
101.9
96.1

103.5
110.9
117.3
89.2
102.5
96.0

106.1
114.0
120.4
90.0
106.1
97.6

104.0
111.6
116.7
90.4
103.8
96.2

104.7
112.8
120.1
91.0
105.1
95.4

103.2
110.9
118.0
92.3
102.8
94.6

104.0
112.4
118.3
88.3
102.6
95.9

Non-energy

84.03

110.7

111.0

111.4

111.9

112.3

112.4

112.3

111.8

111.8

3341
3342

6.64
1.30
2.35

284.0
227.8
145.4

286.9
227.2
143.6

290.8
225.6
144.0

293.1
225.4
144.0

293.6
227.9
138.0

296.8
231.1
136.8

296.1
234.6
131.7

297.9
239.4
131.4

299.8
243.0
129.5

334412–9

2.99

450.7

465.4

479.7

488.5

501.4

512.3

518.6

520.7

528.5

77.39

99.3

99.5

99.8

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

100.0

99.9

6.45
2.69
3.41

113.3
113.9
114.9

115.9
117.5
117.0

115.8
117.4
116.4

118.6
120.9
118.1

122.1
127.0
120.2

122.0
126.1
119.9

121.0
124.4
119.8

118.1
118.7
118.7

122.7
126.6
121.3

Excluding motor vehicles and parts
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials

70.94
21.94
7.76
6.63
9.53
25.30

98.1
103.4
91.8
103.7
101.5
94.8

98.0
102.6
91.7
103.7
102.2
95.4

98.4
102.3
91.8
104.4
102.7
96.0

98.6
102.7
91.5
104.2
102.9
96.3

98.7
102.6
90.9
104.2
104.0
96.6

98.7
102.1
91.5
104.6
103.4
96.7

98.7
102.5
90.6
104.6
104.2
96.5

98.4
102.3
89.8
104.3
103.4
96.2

97.9
102.2
89.3
103.3
103.1
95.6

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

93.36
78.06
38.10

99.9
99.4
98.4

100.3
99.5
98.9

100.5
99.9
99.4

100.8
100.2
99.7

101.5
100.6
100.1

101.2
100.6
100.4

101.2
100.4
99.8

100.6
99.9
99.2

100.7
99.9
99.4

Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

93.55
78.25
38.29

109.4
110.5
120.6

109.7
110.5
120.9

110.1
111.0
121.8

110.3
111.3
121.8

110.8
111.4
121.6

110.5
111.5
122.3

110.6
111.4
121.7

110.1
111.1
121.6

109.9
110.8
121.0

Non-energy materials, stage-of-process
components
Finished processors
Semifinished and primary processors

14.39
16.15

133.1
97.8

134.9
98.3

136.0
99.0

136.2
99.7

138.3
99.6

138.5
99.9

138.4
99.7

137.9
99.3

138.5
98.6

Total industry

Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
Excluding selected high-technology
industries
Motor vehicles and parts
Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle parts

3361–3
3361
3363

1. See note on cover page.

Table 6

DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Percent
Item
It

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

One month earlier
2000
2001
2002

58.6
41.4
55.6

54.6
40.3
61.0

53.9
40.3
61.0

54.6
46.8
58.0

48.5
35.3
59.3

52.2
38.0
55.9

51.2
47.5
52.9

40.7
45.1
48.5

50.5
42.4
46.3

40.7
43.1
42.2

39.0
38.6

38.6
49.5

Three months earlier
2000
2001
2002

59.7
34.6
44.7

55.9
29.8
55.1

55.9
33.9
59.9

52.5
36.9
60.7

50.2
33.9
63.1

50.8
36.9
62.0

46.4
39.0
63.7

40.7
40.3
58.3

39.3
38.0
48.1

34.9
40.7
39.3

40.3
37.6

35.3
40.3

Six months earlier
2000
2001
2002

60.0
30.2
39.3

59.7
30.5
43.9

65.4
28.5
52.7

59.7
27.8
53.7

52.5
27.8
66.3

54.9
30.8
66.3

52.9
31.5
65.8

46.8
38.0
63.7

45.8
38.0
56.3

36.9
32.5
54.6

35.3
33.2

32.2
38.0

NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half
the percentage that were unchanged.

9

Table 7

CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
19722001
ave.

198889
high

199091
low

199495
high

2001
Q4

2002
Q1

Q2

Q3r

2002
Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

100.00

81.5

85.1

78.6

84.8

75.1

75.1

75.7

76.2

76.1

76.1

75.5

75.6

86.10
81.39

80.4
80.3

85.5
85.5

77.2
77.0

84.3
84.4

73.4
72.9

73.4
73.0

73.9
73.5

74.3
73.9

74.3
73.9

74.2
73.7

73.8
73.3

73.8
73.3

321
327
331
332
333
334

47.05
1.44
2.25
2.44
6.25
5.85
11.20

78.8
80.5
79.5
81.1
77.3
80.3
80.2

84.5
88.7
85.6
95.3
80.1
84.7
81.5

73.4
73.1
72.1
75.2
71.0
72.9
76.4

83.7
87.7
83.7
94.8
83.6
88.7
85.4

69.9
73.5
80.3
73.0
70.5
67.3
64.1

69.8
74.6
80.0
75.3
70.5
67.3
62.9

70.2
75.0
80.4
76.4
71.2
68.2
62.7

70.6
75.6
81.2
77.1
71.3
68.3
62.6

70.8
75.8
81.2
78.7
71.2
68.8
62.7

70.3
75.7
81.8
76.4
71.2
67.9
62.5

69.9
74.9
81.7
77.9
71.3
66.9
62.5

69.9
73.8
81.5
77.2
70.2
66.3
62.7

335
3361–3

2.39
6.52

83.5
77.2

87.5
90.0

75.0
56.6

92.5
87.0

75.9
75.3

75.3
77.9

76.1
80.0

75.9
82.7

76.2
82.9

75.2
82.0

75.9
79.8

76.4
82.7

3364–9
337
339

4.03
1.74
2.94

73.5
79.5
77.2

88.9
84.1
81.7

81.9
68.1
77.5

67.9
83.7
81.2

65.3
71.4
74.6

62.3
71.4
74.6

60.2
71.1
76.0

59.1
70.9
75.5

59.4
70.4
75.7

59.0
71.2
74.9

59.0
70.6
74.6

58.4
70.1
74.4

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

34.33
10.70
1.34
1.36
2.91
2.59
1.57
10.19
3.67

82.4
82.5
83.9
80.5
88.7
85.0
86.3
78.8
83.8

86.9
85.5
91.1
83.9
94.0
91.7
88.9
85.6
91.2

81.8
81.3
77.1
77.2
85.4
82.7
82.5
80.8
77.1

85.4
84.3
90.6
89.1
92.6
86.0
90.4
81.3
92.3

77.0
79.0
71.9
65.4
81.0
76.2
88.7
74.7
75.9

77.5
80.1
72.8
65.5
80.1
77.2
90.1
74.4
76.9

78.1
80.2
74.2
65.3
82.5
77.1
89.9
74.6
79.4

78.5
79.6
74.2
64.8
83.9
80.0
88.7
75.5
80.3

78.4
79.6
73.9
64.1
84.0
80.0
89.2
75.2
80.3

78.5
79.4
73.6
64.7
84.3
80.5
87.5
75.8
80.3

78.2
79.5
73.3
63.3
83.8
80.3
86.5
75.2
80.1

78.2
79.1
73.4
63.6
83.9
80.5
89.2
75.3
79.3

1133,5111

4.72

83.6

90.2

79.1

82.7

81.9

80.3

80.3

81.8

81.7

82.8

82.5

82.1

21
2211,2

5.94
7.96

87.0
86.7

85.6
92.6

83.3
84.2

88.5
93.8

86.6
85.0

85.2
85.5

84.8
87.8

84.9
88.2

85.3
86.5

83.7
88.4

83.5
86.3

84.6
85.9

3341
3342

8.10
1.62
2.68

79.8
78.7
79.2

80.4
79.7
82.2

74.6
67.0
73.3

88.5
86.4
87.4

63.1
68.7
60.7

61.8
74.6
56.3

62.2
74.2
55.2

62.2
74.4
52.0

62.4
74.4
52.5

62.0
75.0
50.6

62.0
76.0
50.5

62.0
76.6
49.8

334412–9

3.80

81.8

81.4

78.7

92.0

63.2

61.5

63.7

66.3

66.5

66.8

66.5

67.0

91.90
78.00

81.6
80.4

85.5
86.1

78.8
77.3

84.6
84.0

76.3
74.6

76.5
74.8

77.1
75.3

77.7
75.9

77.6
75.9

77.6
75.8

77.0
75.4

77.1
75.4

9.32
49.17
41.51

86.5
82.4
78.7

88.6
86.2
83.1

84.7
77.6
77.2

89.3
87.7
80.3

82.9
76.3
72.0

82.4
76.5
71.9

83.2
77.7
71.7

83.8
78.5
71.7

83.9
78.4
71.7

83.0
78.6
71.5

82.5
78.0
71.0

83.0
77.8
71.2

2001
proportion

Item

Total industry
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aircraft and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities
Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1

STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS

Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

1. See note on cover page.

Table 8

INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY
Percent change
Item

197279

Average annual rate
1980198988
94

Fourth quarter to fourth quarter
19952002

1999

2000

2001

2002p

Annual rate
2002
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Monthly rate
2002
Nov.

Total industry

2.8

1.8

2.2

4.4

4.1

4.3

2.4

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

.1

Manufacturing1

3.1

2.1

2.5

4.9

4.8

5.0

2.4

.9

1.2

.9

.7

.6

.0

Mining
Utilities

.7
3.6

.1
1.7

-.8
1.3

-.1
2.6

-2.6
1.3

-.4
2.9

2.2
4.1

-.2
6.5

-.1
5.9

-.5
6.5

-.3
6.8

.3
6.7

.0
.5

18.2

17.1

14.7

34.8

28.5

40.3

23.2

8.7

11.5

9.0

7.5

6.9

.6

2.4

1.2

1.7

2.1

2.3

1.5

.4

-.1

-.1

-.2

-.1

-.1

.0

1.6
2.8
3.5

.3
1.4
3.0

-.2
2.5
2.4

.0
5.6
4.0

-2.2
5.0
4.5

-.4
5.6
4.0

.8
3.0
2.0

-.6
1.7
.9

-.8
2.0
1.1

-.9
1.8
1.0

-.6
1.5
.9

-.2
1.3
.9

.0
.1
.1

Selected high-technology industries
Manufacturing1 ex. selected
high-technology industries

STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS
Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

1. See note on cover page.

10

Table 9

GROSS VALUE OF FINAL PRODUCTS AND NONINDUSTRIAL SUPPLIES
Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
1996

2001

2001
Q3

Q4

2002
Q1

Q2

Q3r

2002
Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

2,409.0

2,808.7

2,797.5

2,758.0

2,775.7

2,802.9

2,823.2

2,821.5

2,819.9

2,797.0

2,814.9

1,751.3
1,227.6
354.0
216.1
137.9
873.6

2,026.0
1,357.4
432.4
270.0
161.7
923.4

2,019.3
1,360.0
436.8
276.2
159.4
922.1

1,991.0
1,352.7
434.6
274.4
159.2
917.1

2,007.1
1,372.3
448.8
284.8
162.8
923.6

2,023.6
1,387.1
459.3
295.1
162.3
928.7

2,037.8
1,398.6
471.5
308.9
159.7
929.1

2,038.1
1,395.9
471.2
309.8
158.3
926.9

2,033.0
1,395.7
469.2
306.7
159.7
928.3

2,014.9
1,382.4
460.5
297.3
161.0
923.1

2,035.4
1,402.8
478.1
313.2
161.9
927.6

Equipment, total
Business and defense
Business
Defense and space

523.7
508.8
428.1
80.6

669.0
654.9
571.6
82.8

657.8
643.5
560.3
82.5

633.4
620.3
536.7
82.4

627.3
616.3
532.9
82.2

627.8
617.9
533.2
83.3

629.8
619.7
533.8
84.3

633.6
623.5
537.5
84.5

627.9
617.8
531.5
84.6

623.3
613.1
526.0
85.2

621.3
611.6
524.3
85.3

Nonindustrial supplies
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Commercial energy products

657.8
255.8
402.0
113.0

782.8
282.3
502.6
129.0

778.4
280.9
499.5
129.8

767.1
275.2
494.2
128.0

768.4
277.1
493.4
128.6

779.4
280.2
501.5
132.7

785.5
280.9
507.3
134.6

783.5
281.3
504.5
132.1

787.1
281.1
508.7
135.5

782.4
280.2
504.8
133.1

779.4
277.5
504.7
134.0

Item
It
Final products and nonindustrial supplies

Final products
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Other durable goods
Nondurable

Table 10

GROSS-VALUE-WEIGHTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

Item
It

2001
Gross value1

Finished
Semi-finished
Primary
Crude

1999

2000

2001

2001
Q4

2.6
6.8
3.4
3.8

1.8
3.8
-1.3
-4.5

-5.2
-5.7
-6.0
-4.3

-6.2
-5.4
-7.6
-.2

1792.8
1764.4
858.0
356.0

Annual rate
2002
Q1
Q2
2.2
2.1
7.0
-2.3

1.8
7.6
7.4
5.1

Oct.p

2002
May

Monthly rate
Q3r

2002
Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.r

Nov.p

-.1
-.4
.2
-.3

-.3
.6
-.6
-.7

-.9
-.7
-.6
-.8

Nov. ’01
to
Nov. ’02

.9
-.2
.4
.5

3.0
6.0
1.7
2.2

1.5
3.3
3.4
.0

1. Billions of 1996 dollars.

Table 11

ELECTRIC POWER USE
1997 = 100
Item

1992
billion
kWh

Seasonally adjusted
2002
May

June

July

Aug.r

Not seasonally adjusted
Sept.r

June

July

Aug.r

Sept.r

Oct.p

Total Industry

983.9

89.5

88.5

89.8

89.1

89.9

89.6

89.5

89.7

90.1

91.6

92.8

91.6

Manufacturing1
Durable
Nondurable

890.9
386.5
498.4

89.6
88.9
90.1

88.7
89.1
88.3

90.0
90.6
89.5

89.3
90.3
88.5

90.3
91.0
89.7

89.8
90.5
89.2

89.8
89.4
90.0

90.1
91.1
89.2

90.5
92.2
89.2

92.0
93.6
90.6

93.3
94.3
92.3

91.9
92.1
91.7

93.0

86.9

85.7

87.1

86.0

85.1

86.5

85.9

84.3

84.7

85.3

86.2

86.8

962.6
913.5
70.4

89.7
87.3
120.6

89.3
86.0
118.0

90.2
87.0
115.6

89.7
86.3
115.7

90.3
87.6
117.1

90.2
88.4
114.3

89.8
87.6
119.2

91.1
88.0
116.4

91.7
88.4
117.7

93.2
89.9
118.4

93.6
91.4
115.6

91.7
90.0
116.7

Mining
Total ex. nuclear nondefense
Utility sales to industry
Industrial generation

NOTE. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/download.htm.
1. See note on cover page.

11

Table 12

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change)1
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

.6
-.6
-1.7
1.9
2.1

.0
-.4
1.9
-.5
.2

-.3
.5
-.7
.7
.7

-2.0
-.5
-.8
1.3
.6

-2.4
.7
-.8
.7
.5

-1.3
.5
-.4
.6
.3

-1.0
.7
-.3
1.5
.3

.5
-.1
-.8
1.1
.1

1.7
-.7
-.4
1.5
-.3

1.1
-.7
-1.0
.7
-.1

1.8
-1.1
-.3
.4
.3

.6
-1.2
-.9
.5
.0

2.2
1.1
-7.2
4.5
12.6

-16.0
1.4
-5.3
9.8
6.6

-7.0
4.1
-5.8
14.5
2.7

16.2
-9.0
-7.9
10.4
.0

-2.7
1.2
-5.2
2.6
9.0

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-.3
.5
-.6
.1
.3

.5
-.6
1.3
.4
-.5

.0
-.6
.2
.2
.4

.0
.0
.6
.4
.0

.1
.1
.6
-.1
-.7

-.1
-.3
.6
.1
-.1

-.6
.3
.7
.3
-1.0

.4
.1
.7
.6
.9

.4
.2
.2
-.3
-.3

-.4
.4
1.3
.5
-.1

.3
.5
.4
.3
.2

1.0
.8
.4
.4
.7

.8
2.6
4.5
3.4
1.8

.6
-2.6
7.1
2.7
-1.5

-.7
.9
7.6
2.4
-3.0

2.2
4.9
8.8
2.9
1.3

1.1
.9
4.8
4.8
.8

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

-.6
-.4
-.6
.4
.5

.9
-.7
.8
.3
.1

.5
-.5
.8
.2
.9

.0
.2
.6
.2
.6

.0
1.0
.4
-.4
.6

.4
.9
-.1
.2
.7

-.2
.1
.8
.4
.2

.1
-.1
-.4
-.1
.5

.1
.9
.2
.7
.1

-.6
-.2
.7
.5
.8

-1.3
-.2
.5
.5
.6

-.6
-.3
.1
.6
1.1

2.9
-7.3
-.5
3.5
5.7

3.2
2.3
6.8
1.0
7.4

.8
5.2
3.0
2.1
4.9

-6.0
.6
4.1
5.9
7.6

.8
-1.7
2.7
3.3
5.3

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

.5
-.8
.3
.5
.7

.1
1.4
1.4
.3
.3

.0
-.2
.4
.3
.4

-.1
.9
.5
.6
.2

.3
.7
.4
.5
.5

.4
.9
.5
-.5
.1

-.4
.0
.4
-.1
.7

1.4
.6
1.0
1.8
.5

.4
.6
.9
-.2
-.1

-.2
.1
.8
.7
.9

.4
.9
.6
-.3
.6

.4
.6
.3
.1
.7

6.0
2.0
8.6
4.5
4.2

.8
8.0
6.5
4.2
4.1

4.0
5.7
7.6
3.3
4.9

3.7
6.4
9.2
4.0
6.5

4.8
4.4
7.3
5.6
4.3

2000
2001
2002

.1
-.8
.6

.7
-.5
.2

.4
-.5
.4

.7
-.5
.4

.6
-.6
.3

.2
-.6
.3

-.2
-.1
.7

-.2
-.3
-.2

.3
-.7
.0

-.4
-.4
-.6

-.1
-.6
.1

-.3
-.5

5.4
-6.1
1.4

7.1
-6.1
4.4

.2
-4.6
3.4

-1.6
-5.8

4.7
-3.5

IP (1997=100)
2000
2001
2002

113.2
114.2
109.0

113.9
113.6
109.2

114.4
113.1
109.6

115.3
112.5
110.1

116.0
111.8
110.4

116.2
111.1
110.8

115.9
111.0
111.6

115.7
110.7
111.3

116.1
109.9
111.3

115.6
109.5
110.7

115.5
108.8
110.8

115.1
108.3

113.9
113.6
109.3

115.8
111.8
110.5

115.9
110.5
111.4

115.4
108.9

115.3
111.2

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2000
2001
2002

136.6
142.3
145.3

137.1
142.7
145.4

137.7
143.0
145.6

138.2
143.4
145.7

138.7
143.6
145.9

139.2
143.9
146.0

139.7
144.1
146.1

140.2
144.4
146.2

140.7
144.6
146.4

141.1
144.8
146.5

141.5
145.0
146.6

142.0
145.1

137.1
142.7
145.4

138.7
143.6
145.9

140.2
144.4
146.2

141.5
145.0

139.4
143.9

Utilization
(percent)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

84.4
80.8
75.5
72.1
79.6

84.3
80.3
76.8
71.6
79.7

83.8
80.5
76.0
72.1
80.2

82.0
79.9
75.2
73.1
80.5

79.9
80.4
74.5
73.6
80.8

78.6
80.6
74.1
74.0
81.0

77.7
81.0
73.7
75.1
81.1

78.0
80.7
73.0
75.9
81.0

79.2
80.0
72.6
76.9
80.6

79.9
79.2
71.8
77.4
80.4

81.2
78.1
71.5
77.7
80.5

81.4
77.0
70.8
78.0
80.3

84.2
80.5
76.1
71.9
79.8

80.2
80.3
74.6
73.5
80.8

78.3
80.5
73.1
75.9
80.9

80.8
78.1
71.3
77.7
80.4

80.9
79.9
73.8
74.8
80.5

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

79.9
79.8
78.9
83.4
85.1

80.2
79.2
79.8
83.7
84.6

80.0
78.7
79.9
83.8
84.7

79.8
78.6
80.2
84.0
84.6

79.7
78.5
80.5
83.9
83.9

79.4
78.2
80.9
84.0
83.7

78.8
78.4
81.3
84.2
82.7

79.0
78.3
81.8
84.6
83.3

79.2
78.4
81.9
84.3
82.9

78.8
78.7
82.9
84.6
82.6

78.9
78.9
83.1
84.7
82.6

79.5
79.5
83.4
84.9
83.0

80.0
79.2
79.5
83.6
84.8

79.6
78.5
80.5
84.0
84.1

79.0
78.4
81.6
84.4
82.9

79.1
79.0
83.1
84.7
82.7

79.4
78.8
81.2
84.2
83.6

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

82.4
79.9
78.7
81.0
82.1

83.0
79.2
79.2
81.1
82.0

83.2
78.6
79.8
81.1
82.6

83.1
78.7
80.1
81.1
82.9

83.0
79.4
80.3
80.7
83.1

83.1
79.9
80.1
80.7
83.5

82.8
79.9
80.6
80.9
83.4

82.8
79.7
80.2
80.6
83.6

82.8
80.3
80.2
81.0
83.4

82.1
80.0
80.6
81.3
83.8

80.9
79.8
80.9
81.6
84.1

80.3
79.4
80.8
81.9
84.7

82.9
79.2
79.3
81.1
82.2

83.1
79.3
80.2
80.8
83.1

82.8
80.0
80.4
80.9
83.5

81.1
79.7
80.8
81.6
84.2

82.5
79.6
80.1
81.1
83.3

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

84.8
81.9
82.9
83.9
82.1

84.5
82.6
83.6
83.6
82.1

84.2
82.0
83.6
83.4
82.2

83.7
82.4
83.6
83.4
82.1

83.6
82.5
83.5
83.4
82.3

83.6
82.9
83.5
82.5
82.1

82.9
82.5
83.4
82.0
82.4

83.6
82.6
83.8
83.0
82.5

83.6
82.7
84.1
82.5
82.2

83.0
82.4
84.3
82.7
82.6

83.0
82.8
84.3
82.1
82.8

82.9
83.0
84.0
81.9
83.1

84.5
82.2
83.4
83.7
82.1

83.6
82.6
83.5
83.1
82.2

83.4
82.6
83.8
82.5
82.4

83.0
82.8
84.2
82.2
82.9

83.6
82.5
83.7
82.9
82.4

2000
2001
2002

82.9
80.2
75.0

83.1
79.6
75.1

83.1
79.0
75.3

83.4
78.5
75.6

83.6
77.9
75.7

83.5
77.2
75.9

83.0
77.0
76.4

82.5
76.7
76.1

82.5
76.0
76.1

81.9
75.6
75.5

81.6
75.1
75.6

81.1
74.6

83.0
79.6
75.1

83.5
77.9
75.7

82.7
76.6
76.2

81.6
75.1

82.7
77.3

1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.

12

Table 13

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

.5
-.4
-2.2
2.5
2.0

-.1
-.4
2.6
-.2
.8

-.8
.3
-.8
1.0
.8

-2.0
.5
-.6
1.2
.5

-3.0
.6
-.3
1.3
.3

-1.6
-.5
-.2
.8
.4

-1.3
.3
-.1
1.5
.5

1.0
.0
-.9
.7
.1

1.7
-.6
-.3
1.8
-.3

1.6
-1.1
-1.3
1.1
.4

1.9
-1.2
-.6
.3
.3

.3
-1.7
-.5
.3
.4

1.4
.8
-8.8
9.0
13.0

-18.7
3.2
-2.1
12.5
6.7

-8.4
-.1
-3.9
15.0
3.7

19.3
-10.6
-9.0
12.1
2.2

-3.8
1.0
-5.5
4.6
9.9

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-.4
1.2
-.6
-.1
.8

-.2
-.5
1.6
.3
-1.0

.7
-.4
.2
.3
.0

-.2
.4
.5
.7
.1

.1
.1
.6
-.1
-.8

.1
-.4
.5
.0
.1

-.4
.1
.8
.2
-1.1

.5
.6
.5
.1
.9

.1
.2
.5
.3
-.3

-.4
.4
1.4
.5
-.2

.6
.5
.6
.3
.1

.4
.9
.5
.4
.2

-.1
4.8
4.9
2.7
1.8

1.4
-.1
7.2
3.8
-3.2

.1
1.7
7.4
1.6
-3.2

1.7
5.6
10.2
4.3
.0

1.6
2.1
5.4
5.1
.7

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

-.2
-.7
-.6
.9
.4

1.4
-.7
1.0
.2
.1

.4
-.7
.9
.0
1.2

-.1
.4
.5
.4
.8

.1
.7
.6
-.1
.7

.3
1.1
.2
-.2
.3

-.2
.4
.8
.3
.4

.1
.0
-.3
-.2
.8

-.1
1.1
.0
.9
.2

-.7
-.1
.6
.6
.9

-1.2
-.3
.5
.5
.8

-.7
-.1
-.2
.6
1.1

4.4
-8.6
.8
4.3
5.9

2.9
2.0
7.8
1.4
9.3

.4
6.8
3.9
1.3
5.9

-6.7
1.4
3.0
6.7
9.3

.6
-2.0
3.5
3.4
6.0

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

.5
-.9
.3
.9
.5

-.1
1.3
1.6
.2
.6

.1
-.3
.6
.2
.2

-.1
1.1
.3
.8
.4

.1
.7
.5
.3
.7

.5
1.1
.7
-.6
.0

-.6
.4
.3
-.1
.5

1.2
.6
1.4
2.1
.8

.9
.7
.8
-.3
.0

-.2
.1
.7
1.0
1.0

.2
.9
.8
-.1
.8

.5
.8
.4
.2
.6

6.3
1.0
10.0
6.5
4.4

.3
9.1
7.7
3.8
4.7

3.2
8.2
8.7
3.8
4.9

4.4
6.7
9.7
6.1
8.0

5.3
4.6
8.5
6.5
4.9

2000
2001
2002

.2
-.8
.6

.6
-.5
.1

.8
-.5
.2

.7
-.5
.3

.4
-.6
.4

.3
-.7
.4

-.1
.0
.4

-.5
-.5
.1

.4
-.6
-.2

-.4
-.6
-.5

-.4
-.4
.1

-.6
-.4

6.1
-7.1
1.2

7.1
-6.2
3.5

.1
-4.9
3.1

-2.9
-6.1

5.0
-4.1

IP (1997=100)
2000
2001
2002

115.3
115.7
110.3

116.0
115.1
110.4

116.9
114.5
110.7

117.7
114.0
111.0

118.1
113.3
111.4

118.5
112.5
111.9

118.4
112.5
112.3

117.8
111.9
112.4

118.2
111.2
112.2

117.8
110.6
111.7

117.3
110.1
111.7

116.6
109.6

116.1
115.1
110.5

118.1
113.3
111.4

118.1
111.9
112.3

117.2
110.1

117.4
112.6

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2000
2001
2002

140.9
147.5
150.4

141.5
147.9
150.5

142.1
148.2
150.6

142.8
148.5
150.8

143.4
148.8
150.9

144.0
149.1
151.0

144.6
149.3
151.1

145.1
149.5
151.1

145.6
149.7
151.2

146.1
149.9
151.3

146.6
150.1
151.4

147.1
150.2

141.5
147.9
150.5

143.4
148.8
150.9

145.1
149.5
151.1

146.6
150.1

144.1
149.1

Utilization
(percent)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

83.1
78.5
71.8
70.2
78.3

82.9
77.9
73.6
70.0
78.8

82.1
78.0
72.8
70.7
79.3

80.2
78.2
72.3
71.5
79.5

77.6
78.5
71.9
72.5
79.6

76.2
77.9
71.7
73.0
79.8

75.0
77.9
71.5
74.0
80.0

75.6
77.7
70.7
74.5
79.9

76.7
77.1
70.5
75.8
79.5

77.7
76.1
69.4
76.6
79.6

79.0
75.0
69.0
76.8
79.6

79.0
73.6
68.6
76.9
79.7

82.7
78.1
72.7
70.3
78.8

78.0
78.2
72.0
72.3
79.7

75.8
77.6
70.9
74.8
79.8

78.6
74.9
69.0
76.8
79.6

78.8
77.2
71.1
73.5
79.5

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

79.1
79.1
78.8
83.2
85.5

78.7
78.6
79.9
83.4
84.5

79.1
78.2
79.8
83.6
84.4

78.7
78.4
80.1
84.1
84.2

78.6
78.4
80.4
84.0
83.4

78.5
78.1
80.7
83.9
83.3

78.0
78.1
81.1
84.1
82.2

78.2
78.4
81.4
84.1
82.8

78.2
78.5
81.7
84.3
82.3

77.7
78.7
82.7
84.7
82.0

78.1
78.9
83.1
84.8
81.8

78.3
79.4
83.4
85.0
81.8

79.0
78.6
79.5
83.4
84.8

78.6
78.3
80.4
84.0
83.7

78.1
78.3
81.4
84.2
82.4

78.0
79.0
83.1
84.8
81.9

78.4
78.6
81.1
84.1
83.2

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

81.6
78.5
77.7
80.2
80.9

82.5
77.9
78.4
80.1
80.8

82.7
77.2
79.0
80.0
81.6

82.4
77.3
79.2
80.2
82.0

82.3
77.8
79.5
79.9
82.4

82.3
78.4
79.5
79.6
82.4

82.0
78.6
80.0
79.7
82.5

82.0
78.4
79.6
79.4
82.9

81.8
79.2
79.4
79.9
82.8

81.0
78.9
79.7
80.2
83.2

79.9
78.6
80.0
80.4
83.6

79.2
78.3
79.7
80.8
84.2

82.3
77.9
78.4
80.1
81.1

82.3
77.8
79.4
79.9
82.3

81.9
78.7
79.7
79.7
82.7

80.1
78.6
79.8
80.5
83.7

81.6
78.3
79.3
80.0
82.4

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

84.3
80.6
81.6
83.2
81.2

83.9
81.2
82.5
82.9
81.3

83.6
80.5
82.6
82.5
81.2

83.1
80.9
82.5
82.6
81.1

82.8
81.1
82.5
82.3
81.4

82.8
81.5
82.6
81.3
81.1

81.8
81.4
82.4
80.8
81.2

82.4
81.4
83.0
82.0
81.5

82.7
81.6
83.1
81.4
81.2

82.1
81.3
83.2
81.8
81.6

81.8
81.6
83.3
81.3
81.9

81.7
81.8
83.1
81.1
82.1

83.9
80.7
82.3
82.9
81.2

82.9
81.2
82.5
82.0
81.2

82.3
81.5
82.8
81.4
81.3

81.9
81.6
83.2
81.4
81.9

82.8
81.2
82.7
81.9
81.4

2000
2001
2002

81.9
78.5
73.3

82.0
77.8
73.4

82.2
77.3
73.5

82.4
76.8
73.6

82.4
76.1
73.9

82.3
75.5
74.1

81.9
75.3
74.3

81.2
74.8
74.3

81.2
74.3
74.2

80.6
73.8
73.8

80.0
73.4
73.8

79.3
73.0

82.0
77.9
73.4

82.4
76.1
73.9

81.4
74.8
74.3

80.0
73.4

81.4
75.6

NOTE. See note to table 12.
1. See note on cover page.

13

Table 14

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected
High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

.6
-.7
-1.8
1.9
2.1

-.1
-.5
1.8
-.6
.1

-.4
.5
-.8
.7
.6

-2.2
-.7
-.9
1.3
.5

-2.5
.7
-.9
.6
.4

-1.4
.5
-.4
.5
.2

-1.0
.7
-.4
1.4
.2

.4
-.2
-.8
1.2
-.1

1.7
-.7
-.4
1.2
-.3

1.1
-.8
-1.1
.7
-.1

1.8
-1.2
-.4
.3
.3

.5
-1.3
-1.0
.5
.0

1.2
.2
-8.1
3.6
11.4

-17.0
.5
-6.2
9.0
5.2

-7.5
3.4
-6.5
13.6
1.5

15.9
-10.0
-8.5
9.2
-.8

-3.7
.5
-6.0
1.8
7.8

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-.3
.6
-.7
.1
.3

.6
-.6
1.3
.5
-.5

.0
-.7
.2
.1
.4

.1
-.1
.5
.3
-.1

.1
.0
.5
-.2
-.7

-.1
-.1
.5
.1
-.1

-.5
.0
.6
.2
-1.2

.4
.0
.6
.6
.8

.5
.2
.2
-.4
-.3

-.4
.4
1.3
.4
-.2

.3
.4
.3
.3
.1

1.0
.8
.3
.4
.7

.5
2.7
3.4
3.0
2.0

1.1
-2.9
6.4
2.0
-1.7

-.3
-.1
6.5
1.8
-3.9

2.3
4.4
8.1
2.8
.6

.8
.8
4.0
4.2
.6

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

-.7
-.3
-.8
.4
.5

.9
-.9
.8
.2
.1

.5
-.6
.8
.1
.7

-.1
.2
.5
.3
.3

.0
1.0
.3
-.5
.4

.4
.8
-.2
.1
.6

-.2
.1
.7
.4
.0

.1
-.1
-.4
-.2
.4

.1
.9
.1
.6
-.1

-.7
-.2
.5
.4
.6

-1.3
-.3
.4
.3
.4

-.7
-.5
.1
.5
.9

2.2
-7.8
-1.9
3.0
4.9

2.7
1.8
5.8
.6
5.0

.6
5.0
1.8
1.3
3.1

-6.6
.1
3.1
4.7
5.3

.2
-2.1
1.7
2.5
4.0

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

.2
-.9
.1
.1
.4

-.1
1.2
1.1
.0
.1

-.2
-.4
.0
.2
.2

-.3
.7
.1
.5
-.1

.1
.4
.0
.4
.3

.2
.7
.2
-.8
-.2

-.6
-.3
.2
-.5
.3

1.1
.4
.8
1.6
.4

.1
.4
.8
-.5
-.2

-.6
-.2
.7
.5
.6

.2
.8
.3
-.5
.3

.3
.4
-.1
-.2
.4

3.4
.2
5.5
1.1
.8

-1.5
5.7
2.4
2.6
.9

1.6
2.4
4.9
-.2
1.7

.3
3.5
7.1
1.3
3.9

2.4
1.8
4.2
2.9
1.2

2000
2001
2002

-.4
-.8
.6

.4
-.4
.2

.2
-.5
.4

.4
-.3
.4

.2
-.5
.2

.1
-.5
.3

-.5
.0
.7

-.4
-.3
-.3

.1
-.7
.0

-.6
-.4
-.7

-.3
-.7
.1

-.4
-.5

1.4
-6.0
1.2

3.4
-5.1
3.9

-2.5
-3.7
3.1

-3.6
-6.1

1.4
-4.1

IP (1997=100)
2000
2001
2002

105.2
103.6
99.3

105.6
103.2
99.6

105.8
102.7
99.9

106.2
102.4
100.3

106.5
101.8
100.5

106.6
101.3
100.8

106.0
101.3
101.5

105.6
101.0
101.2

105.7
100.3
101.2

105.1
99.9
100.6

104.8
99.3
100.7

104.4
98.7

105.5
103.2
99.6

106.4
101.8
100.6

105.8
100.9
101.3

104.8
99.3

105.6
101.3

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2000
2001
2002

127.7
129.4
130.2

127.9
129.6
130.3

128.0
129.7
130.3

128.2
129.8
130.3

128.3
129.8
130.4

128.5
129.9
130.4

128.6
130.0
130.4

128.8
130.1
130.5

128.9
130.1
130.5

129.0
130.2
130.6

129.2
130.2
130.6

129.3
130.2

127.9
129.5
130.3

128.3
129.8
130.4

128.8
130.1
130.5

129.2
130.2

128.5
129.9

Utilization
(percent)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

84.2
80.5
75.3
71.8
79.3

84.0
80.1
76.5
71.4
79.3

83.6
80.3
75.8
71.9
79.8

81.7
79.7
75.0
72.9
80.1

79.5
80.1
74.2
73.3
80.4

78.3
80.4
73.8
73.7
80.5

77.4
80.8
73.4
74.8
80.6

77.6
80.5
72.8
75.7
80.5

78.9
79.7
72.4
76.6
80.1

79.6
78.9
71.6
77.2
79.9

81.0
77.9
71.3
77.4
80.1

81.2
76.8
70.5
77.7
79.9

83.9
80.3
75.9
71.7
79.5

79.8
80.0
74.3
73.3
80.4

78.0
80.3
72.9
75.7
80.4

80.6
77.9
71.1
77.4
80.0

80.6
79.6
73.6
74.5
80.1

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

79.6
80.3
79.2
83.7
85.5

79.9
79.7
80.1
84.1
85.0

79.8
79.1
80.2
84.1
85.2

79.7
79.0
80.5
84.4
85.0

79.7
78.9
80.8
84.3
84.4

79.5
78.8
81.2
84.3
84.2

79.0
78.7
81.6
84.5
83.1

79.2
78.6
82.1
84.9
83.6

79.5
78.7
82.1
84.5
83.2

79.1
79.0
83.2
84.8
82.9

79.2
79.3
83.4
85.0
82.9

79.9
79.8
83.7
85.3
83.3

79.8
79.7
79.8
84.0
85.2

79.6
78.9
80.8
84.3
84.5

79.2
78.7
81.9
84.6
83.3

79.4
79.4
83.4
85.1
83.0

79.5
79.2
81.5
84.5
84.0

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

82.6
80.2
78.8
81.0
82.3

83.3
79.4
79.3
81.1
82.3

83.5
78.8
79.9
81.1
82.7

83.3
78.9
80.2
81.3
82.9

83.2
79.6
80.4
80.8
83.1

83.4
80.2
80.1
80.8
83.5

83.1
80.1
80.6
81.0
83.4

83.1
80.0
80.2
80.8
83.6

83.1
80.6
80.2
81.2
83.4

82.4
80.4
80.6
81.4
83.7

81.2
80.0
80.8
81.6
84.0

80.6
79.6
80.8
82.0
84.5

83.1
79.5
79.3
81.1
82.4

83.3
79.5
80.2
81.0
83.2

83.1
80.2
80.4
81.0
83.4

81.4
80.0
80.7
81.7
84.1

82.7
79.8
80.2
81.2
83.3

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

84.6
81.7
83.1
83.8
82.4

84.3
82.6
83.8
83.6
82.3

83.9
82.1
83.6
83.6
82.3

83.4
82.5
83.5
83.7
82.1

83.3
82.7
83.3
83.9
82.2

83.3
83.1
83.2
83.0
82.0

82.7
82.7
83.1
82.3
82.1

83.4
82.8
83.6
83.4
82.2

83.3
82.9
84.0
82.8
81.9

82.6
82.6
84.3
83.1
82.3

82.6
83.1
84.3
82.5
82.5

82.7
83.3
84.0
82.2
82.8

84.3
82.1
83.5
83.7
82.3

83.4
82.8
83.3
83.5
82.1

83.1
82.8
83.5
82.9
82.1

82.6
83.0
84.2
82.6
82.5

83.3
82.7
83.6
83.2
82.3

2000
2001
2002

82.4
80.1
76.3

82.6
79.7
76.4

82.6
79.2
76.7

82.9
78.9
77.0

83.0
78.4
77.1

82.9
78.0
77.3

82.4
77.9
77.9

82.0
77.7
77.6

82.0
77.1
77.6

81.5
76.8
77.0

81.1
76.2
77.1

80.8
75.8

82.5
79.6
76.5

82.9
78.4
77.1

82.1
77.6
77.7

81.1
76.3

82.2
78.0

NOTE. Excluded industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. See also note to table 12.

14

Table 15

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected
High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

.4
-.6
-2.3
2.5
1.8

-.2
-.5
2.5
-.3
.7

-.9
.3
-.8
.9
.7

-2.3
.3
-.7
1.2
.3

-3.1
.5
-.4
1.3
.2

-1.7
-.6
-.2
.7
.3

-1.4
.2
-.3
1.3
.4

.9
-.2
-.8
.9
.0

1.8
-.6
-.3
1.5
-.4

1.6
-1.2
-1.5
1.0
.3

1.9
-1.2
-.7
.2
.2

.2
-1.9
-.6
.2
.3

.2
-.4
-10.1
8.1
11.5

-20.1
2.2
-3.1
11.6
4.8

-9.2
-1.1
-4.7
13.9
2.1

19.1
-11.9
-9.9
10.7
1.3

-5.0
.0
-6.7
3.6
8.4

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-.5
1.3
-.8
-.2
.8

-.2
-.5
1.5
.3
-1.1

.7
-.4
.2
.2
.0

.0
.4
.4
.6
.0

.1
.1
.5
-.2
-.8

.0
-.2
.5
-.1
.1

-.3
-.2
.6
.1
-1.3

.5
.5
.4
.1
.8

.2
.2
.5
.3
-.3

-.4
.4
1.4
.5
-.3

.6
.4
.5
.3
.0

.4
.8
.4
.4
.2

-.5
4.9
3.6
2.2
2.1

2.1
-.3
6.3
3.1
-3.4

.7
.5
6.1
.8
-4.2

1.7
5.0
9.3
4.2
-.9

1.3
2.1
4.4
4.3
.3

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

-.3
-.7
-.8
.9
.3

1.4
-.8
1.0
.1
.1

.3
-.8
.9
.0
.9

-.2
.4
.4
.4
.5

.1
.7
.5
-.2
.5

.2
1.0
.0
-.3
.2

-.2
.4
.7
.3
.2

.2
-.1
-.4
-.4
.6

-.1
1.1
-.1
.8
.0

-.8
-.1
.4
.5
.7

-1.3
-.4
.4
.4
.6

-.7
-.3
-.2
.6
.9

3.7
-9.3
-.9
3.8
4.9

2.3
1.3
6.7
.9
6.5

.1
6.7
2.5
.4
3.7

-7.4
.8
1.6
5.3
6.7

-.1
-2.6
2.5
2.5
4.4

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

.2
-1.1
.0
.5
.1

-.3
1.1
1.2
-.1
.3

-.2
-.5
.2
.1
-.1

-.4
1.0
.0
.7
.0

-.2
.4
.1
.2
.5

.3
.9
.4
-1.0
-.4

-.9
.1
.0
-.6
.0

.9
.3
1.2
1.9
.7

.5
.4
.7
-.6
-.2

-.6
-.3
.6
.8
.7

-.1
.7
.5
-.3
.5

.3
.6
.0
-.1
.3

3.1
-1.2
6.3
2.6
.4

-2.4
6.4
2.9
1.9
1.1

.3
4.5
5.5
-.4
1.2

.4
3.3
7.2
3.1
5.1

2.5
1.6
4.8
3.4
1.4

2000
2001
2002

-.3
-.7
.6

.3
-.5
.1

.5
-.5
.2

.3
-.3
.2

-.1
-.5
.3

.2
-.6
.4

-.4
.1
.4

-.7
-.6
.0

.2
-.6
-.2

-.7
-.7
-.5

-.6
-.4
.0

-.7
-.5

1.5
-7.1
1.1

2.7
-4.9
2.8

-3.0
-3.8
2.8

-5.5
-6.5

1.3
-4.9

IP (1997=100)
2000
2001
2002

106.1
103.4
99.1

106.4
102.9
99.2

106.9
102.4
99.4

107.1
102.1
99.5

107.1
101.7
99.9

107.2
101.1
100.2

106.8
101.2
100.6

106.0
100.6
100.6

106.2
100.1
100.4

105.5
99.4
99.9

104.9
99.0
99.9

104.1
98.5

106.4
102.9
99.2

107.2
101.6
99.9

106.3
100.6
100.6

104.8
98.9

106.2
101.0

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2000
2001
2002

130.7
132.4
132.7

130.9
132.5
132.7

131.0
132.5
132.6

131.2
132.6
132.6

131.4
132.6
132.6

131.5
132.7
132.6

131.7
132.7
132.6

131.8
132.7
132.6

132.0
132.7
132.6

132.1
132.7
132.6

132.2
132.7
132.6

132.3
132.7

130.8
132.5
132.7

131.4
132.6
132.6

131.8
132.7
132.6

132.2
132.7

131.6
132.6

Utilization
(percent)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

82.8
78.0
71.3
69.8
77.8

82.5
77.5
73.0
69.7
78.3

81.7
77.6
72.3
70.3
78.8

79.7
77.7
71.8
71.2
79.0

77.1
78.0
71.4
72.1
79.0

75.6
77.5
71.2
72.6
79.2

74.5
77.5
70.9
73.6
79.4

75.0
77.3
70.3
74.2
79.3

76.2
76.7
70.1
75.4
78.8

77.3
75.6
69.0
76.2
79.0

78.6
74.6
68.6
76.3
79.0

78.6
73.1
68.1
76.5
79.1

82.3
77.7
72.2
69.9
78.3

77.5
77.7
71.4
72.0
79.0

75.2
77.1
70.4
74.4
79.1

78.2
74.4
68.6
76.3
79.0

78.3
76.8
70.7
73.2
78.9

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

78.6
79.6
79.1
83.6
86.1

78.3
79.1
80.2
83.8
85.0

78.8
78.7
80.2
84.0
84.9

78.6
78.9
80.5
84.6
84.8

78.6
78.9
80.8
84.4
83.9

78.5
78.7
81.1
84.3
83.9

78.2
78.5
81.5
84.4
82.6

78.4
78.8
81.7
84.5
83.2

78.5
78.9
82.0
84.7
82.7

78.1
79.1
83.1
85.0
82.3

78.5
79.3
83.5
85.2
82.1

78.7
79.9
83.8
85.5
82.1

78.5
79.1
79.9
83.8
85.3

78.6
78.9
80.8
84.4
84.2

78.4
78.7
81.8
84.5
82.8

78.4
79.4
83.5
85.2
82.2

78.5
79.0
81.5
84.5
83.6

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

81.8
78.8
77.7
80.2
81.0

82.8
78.1
78.4
80.1
81.0

83.0
77.3
79.0
80.0
81.7

82.7
77.5
79.2
80.2
82.0

82.6
77.9
79.5
80.0
82.3

82.6
78.6
79.5
79.7
82.3

82.3
78.8
80.0
79.8
82.4

82.3
78.6
79.6
79.5
82.8

82.1
79.4
79.4
80.0
82.7

81.3
79.2
79.6
80.3
83.1

80.2
78.8
79.8
80.5
83.4

79.5
78.5
79.5
80.8
84.0

82.6
78.1
78.4
80.1
81.2

82.6
78.0
79.4
80.0
82.2

82.3
79.0
79.6
79.8
82.6

80.3
78.9
79.6
80.5
83.5

81.9
78.5
79.3
80.1
82.4

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

84.0
80.3
81.8
83.1
81.3

83.6
81.0
82.6
82.7
81.4

83.2
80.4
82.6
82.5
81.2

82.7
81.0
82.3
82.8
81.0

82.4
81.1
82.1
82.8
81.3

82.4
81.7
82.2
81.7
80.8

81.5
81.5
81.9
81.0
80.6

82.0
81.6
82.6
82.4
81.1

82.2
81.8
82.9
81.7
80.8

81.5
81.4
83.1
82.1
81.2

81.3
81.8
83.2
81.7
81.5

81.3
82.1
82.9
81.4
81.6

83.6
80.5
82.3
82.8
81.3

82.5
81.2
82.2
82.4
81.0

81.9
81.6
82.5
81.7
80.8

81.4
81.7
83.1
81.7
81.4

82.3
81.3
82.5
82.2
81.1

2000
2001
2002

81.2
78.1
74.7

81.3
77.7
74.8

81.5
77.3
74.9

81.7
77.0
75.1

81.5
76.6
75.3

81.5
76.2
75.6

81.1
76.3
75.9

80.4
75.8
75.9

80.5
75.4
75.8

79.9
74.9
75.4

79.3
74.6
75.4

78.7
74.2

81.3
77.7
74.8

81.6
76.6
75.3

80.7
75.8
75.9

79.3
74.6

80.7
76.2

NOTE. See note to table 12.
1. See note on cover page.

15

EXPLANATORY NOTE
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release,
which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of
output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly
indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More
detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and
electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at
the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown
in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to
December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site.
Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided
as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of
Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please
call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes
containing historical data and the data published in this release also are
available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Publications Services, 202-452-3245.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output
of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the
reference period for the index is 1997. For the period since 1997, the total
IP index has been constructed from 295 individual series based on the
1997 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes.
These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and
(2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials.
Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods
and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to
nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of
products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and
aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable
manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the
market and industry structures, including details regarding series
classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available
on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in
output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and
the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special
aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of
several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are
summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of
the statistical tables, see below.
Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial
production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output
measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production
process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as
tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations
and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate
monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a
few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output
(calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a
corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the
high-technology grouping and include computers, communications
equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product
are not available, estimates of output are based on either
production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours
worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment
survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric
power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into
estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the
inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP
indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical
developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP
indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the
quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the
Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census;
the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey

16

of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of
Energy.
Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for
the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed
discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin
February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the
output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from
their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP
index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since
1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the
sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output
(I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added
estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month:
IA
m
+
IA
m–1

ȍ
Ǹȍ

Imp m–1

Im–1p m–1

ȍ Imp m
ȍ Im–1p m

The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant
tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative
contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the
relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is
about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month,
then this gain would boost growth in total IP by ½ percentage point (0.05
x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s
web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact
proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to
the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/
releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa
).
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the
15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the
superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent
three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are
denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output
for a given month, about 48 percent of the source data (in value-added
terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about
85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published,
96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data
availability by data type is summarized in the table below:
Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window
(Percent of value added in 2001)
Month of estimate
Type of data

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Physical product

24

37

47

48

Production-worker
hours

26

26

26

26

Electric power use

0

22

22

22

IP data received

50

85

95

96

IP data estimated

50

15

5

4

NOTE––The physical product group includes series based on either
monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in
the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of
the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical
product data (24 percent out of total of 48 percent). Of the 24 percent,
about two–thirds (15 percent of total IP) include series that are derived
from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may
lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received
for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data
are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the
third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of
the first month of a quarter. About 4 percent of the source data for
monthly IP––all physical product measures––are available too late for
direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an
annual historical revision.

Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using
Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the
current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 2002;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June
2002. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business
cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted
indexes of the individual series.
Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without
regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent
during the 1987–99 period. The average revision to the percent change in
total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was
0.21 percentage point during the 1987–99 period. In most cases (about 83
percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate
for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded
indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the
rounded indexes shown in the release.
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity
and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate
is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity
index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a
plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after
factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of
inputs to operate the capital in place.
Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 85 detailed industries (67
in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly
correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level.
Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups,
including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing,
mining, utilities, and total industry. Also, special aggregates are available,
such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech
industries.
Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be
consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically
available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct
monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the
Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source
data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources
(primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of
Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are
available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper,
industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for
electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 18 percent of
total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for
manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the
Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries
account for a bit less than 78 percent of total industry capacity. In the
absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity
is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total
industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to
construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html).
Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated
in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis
through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of
individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived
from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the
monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher
index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the
individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent
monthly production index by the related capacity index.
Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be
consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about

17

the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the
Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of
capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the
movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based
utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was
the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This
was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher
utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC
(currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen
years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry
utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line
with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates
reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in
the SPC.
Perspective. Over the 1972–2001 period, the average total industry
utilization rate is 81.5 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory
operating rate has been 80.4 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at
capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the
broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in
wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 6 are
specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month.
ELECTRIC POWER
Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and
for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining
firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are
generally collected at the 4-digit NAICS and 3-digit SIC level for mining
and manufacturing. Aggregates for 3-digit industries, as well as for total
mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial
electric power use, are computed. An aggregate showing total industry
excluding nuclear nondefense is shown separately because the
value-added proportion for the nondefense nuclear material series (part of
NAICS 3251) in total IP is considerably less than its share of total electric
power use. In addition, aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and
industry generation are computed. While only the major aggregates are
shown in the release, data for the 3- and 4-digit industries are available on
the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17).
Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities
and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The
primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility
provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal
Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1997 Census of
Manufactures (the most recent available) and recent reporting panel
statistics suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 50 percent of the
overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers
about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order
to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of
the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 4-digit industry level to the
latest available data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the
Census of Manufactures.
Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are
edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 4-digit
NAICS industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable
for some reason, responses are estimated.
Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 4-digit NAICS
level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of
seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure
(Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because
the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year
adjustment is also made where appropriate.
REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES
References. The annual revision published in early December 2002 will
be described in an article published in an upcoming Federal Reserve
Bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial
production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal
Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal
Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital
is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries:

Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can
be obtained at
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf.
Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description
of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have
been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990,
June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997,

February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002).
Release Schedule
At 9:15 a.m. on
2002: January 16, February 15, March 15, April 16, May 15, June 14,
July 16, August 15, September 17, October 17, November 15, and
December 17.
2003: January 17, February 14, March 14, April 15, May 15, June 17,
July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 14, and
December 16.

18