Full text of Federal Reserve Bulletin : January 1999
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Volume 85 • Number 1 • January 1999 Federal Reserve BULLETIN Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. Table of Contents 1 AGGREGATE DISTURBANCES, MONETARY POLICY, AND THE MACROECONOMY: THE FRB/US PERSPECTIVE The FRB/US macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy was created at the Federal Reserve Board for use in policy analysis and forecasting. This article begins with an examination of the model's characterization of the monetary transmission mechanism—the chain of relationships describing how monetary policy actions influence financial markets and, in turn, output and inflation. The quantitative nature of this mechanism is illustrated by estimates of the effect of movements in interest rates and other factors on spending in different sectors and by simulations of the effect of a change in the stance of policy on the economy as a whole. After the discussion of the transmission mechanism, the article considers the influence of monetary policy on the macroeconomic consequences of specific events by showing how the predicted effects of selected disturbances change under alternative policy responses. These examples illustrate an important policy tradeoff in the FRB/US model involving the variability (but not the level) of output and inflation: Past some point, lower variability in inflation can be obtained only at the expense of greater fluctuations in output and interest rates. 20 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 1998 ANNUAL REVISION In late 1998, the Federal Reserve published the results of an annual revision of its measures of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization, which cover the nation's manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries. The revision involved both the incorporation of newly available and more comprehensive source data and, for some series, the introduction of modified methods for compiling the series. The revised figures show stronger growth of both production and capacity since 1996; however, the overall capacity utilization rate was little changed from the previous data. 34 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION FOR NOVEMBER 1998 Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in November, to 131.8 percent of its 1992 average, after an upwardly revised increase of 0.2 percent in October. Capacity utilization fell 0.6 percentage point, to 80.6 percent, a level 1 Vi percentage points below its 1967-97 average. 37 ANNOUNCEMENTS Reduction in the discount rate. Reduction in fees for payment services of the Federal Reserve Banks. Provision for enhanced settlement services to depository institutions. Decrease in the net transaction accounts to which a 3 percent reserve requirement will apply in 1999. Joint statement on the allowance for loan losses of depository institutions. Enforcement actions. 40 MINUTES OF THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE MEETING HELD ON SEPTEMBER 29, 1998 At its meeting held on September 29, 1998, the Committee adopted a directive that called for conditions in reserve markets that would be consistent with a slight decrease in the federal funds rate to an average of about 5 lA percent and that contained a bias toward a possible further easing of reserve conditions and a lower funds rate. 49 LEGAL DEVELOPMENTS Various bank holding company, bank service corporation, and bank merger orders; and pending cases. AI FINANCIAL AND BUSINESS STATISTICS These tables reflect data available as of A68 BOARD OF GOVERNORS AND STAFF A?Q November 26, 1998. A3 GUIDE TO TABULAR PRESENTATION A4 Domestic Financial Statistics A42 Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics A50 International Statistics A63 GUIDE TO STATISTICAL RELEASES AND SPECIAL TABLES A66 INDEX TO STATISTICAL TABLES M2 FED£RAL ^ ^ ^ . QpEN ADVISQRY ^ RESERV£ COMMITTEE AND MARKET COUNCILS BQARD P(JBUCATI0NS A74 MAPS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM A76 FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS, BRANCHES, AND OFFICES PUBLICATIONS COMMITTEE Lynn S. Fox, Chairman • S. David Frost 3 Karen H. Johnson • Donald L. Kohn • J. Virgil Mattingly, Jr. • Michael J. Prell • Dolores S. Smith • Richard Spillenkothen The Federal Resen>e Bulletin is issued monihly under the direction of (lie staff publications committee. This committee is responsible for opinions expressed except in official statements and signed articles. It is assisted by the Economic Editing Section headed by S. Ellen Dykes, the Multimedia Technologies Center under the direction of Christine S. Griffith, and Publications Services supervised by Linda C. Kylev Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective David Reifschneider, Robert Tetlow, and John Williams, of the Board's Division of Research and Statistics, prepared this article. The U.S. economy is continually buffeted by disturbances originating both within and outside our borders. To assess the influence of such events on employment, inflation, and other measures of macroeconomic performance, economists often use models of the economy—systems of mathematical equations describing the interactions among various measures of activity in the markets for labor, goods, and financial instruments. Although no model can replicate in full detail the complex behavior of the real world, one can construct models that are consistent with both economic theory and historical data. Such models shed light on the way the economy works and how it responds to disturbances and policy actions that are similar to those encountered historically. The FRB/US model of the U.S. economy is maintained at the Federal Reserve Board for use in policy analysis and forecasting. With FRB/US, the Board's staff can gauge the likely consequences of specific events through simulation analysis—computational "what-if" exercises in which the model is used to predict the outcomes from alternative assumptions regarding fiscal and monetary policy, international conditions, and so forth. In a similar manner, the staff can use model simulations to assess possible implications for economic performance of the full range of disturbances likely to be experienced over extended periods of time. This article examines the properties of the FRB/US model and the ways in which they shape the model's predictions. To a large extent, the discussion centers on the monetary transmission mechanism—the chain of relationships embedded in the model that describe how monetary policy actions influence financial markets and, in turn, aggregate output and inflation. The quantitative nature of this mechanism is illustrated by estimates of the effect of movements in interest rates and other factors on spending in different sectors and by simulations of the effect of a change in the stance of policy on the economy as a whole. After the discussion of the transmission mechanism, the article considers the ways in which mone tary policy influences the macroeconomic consequences of specific events in the FRB/US model by showing how the predicted effects of selected disturbances change under alternative policy responses. Because these disturbances—a decline in the value of the stock market, a period of unexpectedly rapid wage growth, and an adverse shock to the productivity of American firms and workers—differ in their implications for output and inflation, they illustrate some of the choices faced by policymakers in the context of the model. In the final section of the article, these choices are summarized in terms of policy frontiers that show how, past some point, reductions in the variability of inflation are obtained only through increases in the variability of output. PROPERTIES OF THE FRB/US MODEL FRB/US is what is often called a New Keynesian model because of the assumptions it incorporates. In the model, households and firms are forwardlooking—that is, they base their decisions on the income and sales, financial conditions, and prices that they expect for the future. However, rather than being instantaneous, the response to changes in these fundamental factors is gradual because capital installation costs, contracts, and other considerations create significant frictions that slow the process. For this reason, the failure of markets to clear quickly after disturbances to the economy can result in periods of over- or under-utilization of labor and capital resources (see box "An Overview of the FRB/US Model"). According to the viewpoint embedded in the model, monetary policy can mitigate these swings in aggregate resource utilization by altering financial market conditions and thereby exerting an indirect influence on output and employment in the short term and on inflation over the longer term. In FRB/US, policymakers alter financial conditions by changing the short-term interest rate under the control of the Federal Reserve—the federal funds rate. Current and anticipated changes in this rate influence prices and rates of return on various financial assets, including bonds and corporate equities, and on foreign exchange. 2 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Changes in these financial conditions in turn influence spending by households and firms and, by altering resource utilization in labor and product markets, affect the rate of inflation. (For alternative views on how monetary policy may influence the economy, see box "Other Monetary Transmission Channels.") An Overview of the FRB/US Model Macroeconomic models sometimes differ in their predictions about the effect of a particular event on the economy, owing to differences in theoretical design, empirical specification, and degree of aggregation. For this reason, reviewing the structure of the FRB/US model is useful for understanding the model's behavior.1 The equations of FRB/US are specified in accordance with standard economic theory. In particular, households, businesses, and investors are assumed to be forward-looking in their decisionmaking as they seek to optimize their welfare. Individuals choose a path for current and future consumption that maximizes their lifetime utility, subject to a budget constraint; this assumption implies that consumer spending today is related to the present value of expected future earnings and the current value of assets. Similarly, firms maximize expected profits in hiring workers, investing in capital goods, and setting prices; this assumption implies, among other things, that the desired stock of business equipment is a function of expected sales and the cost of capital. In financial markets, investors equate expected rates of return on different assets, subject to premiums that compensate borrowers and lenders for differences in risk and liquidity. In their decisionmaking, households and firms are assumed to face significant frictions that slow the speed at which they adjust prices and quantities to changes in fundamental economic factors. Although not explicitly incorporated into the structure of FRB/US. the sources of these frictions are varied; they include the cost of adjusting a firm's work force and physical capital, labor contracts and other agreements, and an apparent reluctance of households to change spending habits quickly. The existence of such frictions means that households and firms have an incentive to be forward-looking in their behavior because costs of adjusting spending and prices can be reduced by correctly anticipating their preferred values in the future. As a result, many decisions in the nonfinancial sectors depend not only on conditions today and in the recent past but also on the way conditions are expected to change in the near future. 1. For a more extended discussion of rile FRB/US model and its uses, sec Flint Brayton and Peter Tinsley, "A Guide to FRB/US: A Macroeconomic Model of the United States." Finance and Economic Discussion Series, 1996-42 (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 1996): Flint Brayton, Eileen Mauskopf, David Reifschneider, Peter Tinsley, and John Williams, "The Role of Expectations in the FRB/US Macroeconomic Model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (April 1997), pp. 227-45: and Flint Brayton. Andrew Levin. Ralph Tryon, and John B. Williams, "The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 47 (1997), pp. 43-81. Expectations also play a key role in determining prices in the financial market sector of the model. However, the motivation for this dependence on expectations is somewhat different because financial decisions are assumed to be unaffected by frictions, given the negligible cost of such transactions. Rather, expectations figure prominently in this sector because the return on many financial investments is a stream of payments stretching well into the future. In FRB/US, expectations are modeled explicitly, but in a flexible manner that allows Board staff to make alternative assumptions about the amount of information available to households, firms, and investors in forming their expectations about the future course of the economy. Because of the presence of frictions that delay the adjustment of nonfinancial variables, FRB/US belongs to a class of models often described as "New Keynesian."2 In such models, prices and quantities do not adjust quickly enough to ensure full resource utilization at afl times. These models predict that the labor market, in particular, will be out of equilibrium periodically. For example, during economic downturns an unusually large percentage of the labor force may be willing to work at current wage rates but be unable to find a job. Alternatively, during periods of above-average activity, the unemployment rate may temporarily fall to a low level, and employees may be required to work a longer workweek than desired. However, these Keynesian features of FRB/US diminish over time, and in the long run, when adjustment is complete, all markets clear. An aspect of FRB/US that is closely related to slow market adjustment is the behavior of inflation. In the model, firms seek to pay workers the value of their marginal product and to price their output as a markup over trend unit labor and energy costs. However, labor contracts and other factors create frictions that slow the speed at which wages and prices adjust to shifts in demand and supply. (Commodity prices are an exception to this behavior because they adjust quickly on world spot markets). Such "sticky-price" behavior is incorporated into the equations of FRB/US that govern the response of inflation to changes in economic conditions. An important implication of this view of the inflation process is that policy-directed changes in shortterm nominal interest rates have a temporary influence on the real rate of interest. Through this influence over real interest rates, monetary policy can affect real prices and yields on a variety of financial assets and thereby indirectly influence economic activity in various sectors of the economy. 2. For further infontoution, see N. Gregory Mankiw and David Romer, eds.. New Keynesian Economics (MIT Press, 1991). Aggregate Disturbances. Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective The Influence of Policy Actions on Financial Markets The set of relationships linking policy actions to movements in aggregate output and inflation is commonly known as the monetary transmission mechanism. In FRB/US, the first step in this chain is the connection between two markets—that for overnight interbank loans and related short-term instruments (strongly influenced by Federal Reserve operations) and that for long-term government and corporate bonds. Specifically, these markets are linked by the expectations theory of the term structure, which states that investors seek to equalize—up to a premium to compensate for differences in risk—the yield from holding a bond to maturity with the yield expected from a sequence of short-term investments in the money market. Mathematically, the theory implies that the yield on a bond is given by the following formula: Here /?,„, is the yield to maturity on an m-period bond; r, +j is the value of the overnight interbank loan rate (the federal funds rate) expected j periods in the future; and the weights, (fij, sum to unity. As the formula shows, a bond's yield is, in part, a weighted average of the funds rate expected well into the future. The remaining term, <p,, denotes the premium paid to investors to compensate for uncertainty in the future course of short-term interest rates and for the chance of default. Given this arbitrage relationship—which is assumed to hold at all times because financial markets, with their low transaction costs, are relatively unaffected by the frictions that slow adjustment in other sectors—policy can influence long-term yields in at least two ways. First, it can alter the current value of the funds rate. By itself, however, such an action has only a minor direct influence on long-term yields because the weight on the current period's setting of the funds rate is relatively small. Second, policy can affect investors' expectations for the future course of the funds rate—an influence that is potentially quite powerful. In the FRB/US model, the Other Monetary Transmission Channels The discussion in the text focuses on the aspects of the monetary transmission channel explicitly incorporated in the structure of the FRB/US model. In the real world, other channels may also help transmit monetary policy actions through the economy. Here in brief are two such mechanisms that have been discussed in the economics literature: the real balance effect and the credit channel. The Real Balance Effect. The monetary base—the sum of currency and bank reserves—makes up part of the public's financial wealth. Movements in the federal funds rate are accomplished through changes in the monetary base; for example, an increase in the federal funds rate necessitates a decrease in the monetary base. Unlike debt between private parties, for which a change in value affects only the distribution of real wealth and not its overall level, changes in the monetary base do affect the level of private wealth and therefore should, in theory, alter consumption spending. However, relative to movements in other forms of wealth, movements of the monetary base are very small in size, and thus, in reality, the real balance effect is likely to be quantitatively unimportant. The Credit Channel. A number of economists have argued that financial markets do not function as flawlessly as depicted in the standard framework embedded in the FRB/US model.' In particular, households and firms 3 face significantly higher costs if funds are raised from bank loans and other outside sources than if internal cash sources are used. Moreover, banks may restrict the amount lent to limit borrowers' exposure to default risk. According to this view, when monetary policy is tight, not only do high real interest rates deter spending, but as income and profits fall, many households and firms see their savings and cash reserves diminish. Given the high cost and limited availability of outside financing, households and firms curtail spending even more than the change in interest rates implies. Although it is difficult to incorporate fully the effects of such credit market imperfections into a macroeconomic model like FRB/US, in two spending categories allowance is made for such effects. For a portion of households— estimated to account for about 10 percent of aggregate consumption—consumer outlays move one-for-one with current income. Similarly, a portion of business investment in equipment depends on current profits, capturing the reliance of many firms on internal funds. More generally, household spending is estimated to be more procyclical than standard theory would imply, perhaps because of the effects of the credit channel. 1. For a recent review of this literature, see Ben S. Bernanke. "Credit in the Macroeconomy," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review (Spring 1993). pp. 50-70. For an empirical evaluation of different views of the monetary transmission channels, see Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 1 (1990), pp. 149-213. 4 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 public expects policymakers to respond to changes in economic conditions in a systematic manner, raising the funds rate when output is above potential and inflation is high and lowering rates when output is below potential and inflation is low. In forming their expectations, households, firms, and investors use this expected policy response to guide their forecasts not only of the future course of interest rates but also of output, inflation, and other macroeconomic variables.1 (For additional information on monetary pol- icy operations, see box "How Does the Federal Reserve Set the Funds Rate?") Similar asset-pricing formulas, based on the same principle of equalizing risk-adjusted expected rates of return across investments, link the value of corporate equities to the yield on bonds and expectations of future corporate earnings. In addition, arbitrage across international markets implies that variations in the return on investments in the United States cause changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. ]. Further information on the treatment of expectations in the FRB/US model can be found in Flint Brayton and others, "The Role of Expectations in the FRBrtJS Macroeconomic Model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (April 1997), pp. 227^15. The Influence of Financial Market Conditions on Spending How Does the Federal Reserve Set the Funds Rate? Throughout this article, monetary policy actions are characterized as setting the nominal federal funds rate—the interest rate that banks pay to each other for overnight loans of reserves held in the Federal Reserve System. In fact, the Federal Reserve does not directly control the federal funds rate; instead, the funds rate is a market rate determined by the supply and demand for reserves. The Federal Reserve uses open market transactions—buying and selling Treasury securities—to expand or contract the supply of reserves. By choosing the right supply of reserves to the banking system, the Federal Reserve can effectively keep the funds rate near its desired level.1 An alternative representation of monetary policy procedures is one in which the Federal Reserve, instead of choosing a level for the funds rate, strives to keep the money supply near a target level. If the reserves-tomoney multiplier were stable, the money supply target would imply a particular level for the supply of reserves. If the demand for both money and reserves were also stable, the money supply target would be associated with a particular level of the federal funds rate. Therefore, targeting the money supply and targeting the federal funds rate need not be fundamentally different approaches. In practice, however, substantial disturbances to money demand occurred as a result of financial deregulation during the early 1980s and financial innovation in the early 1990s. Current discussions of monetary policy and Federal Reserve practice therefore focus on the direct setting of the federal funds rate.2 1. For a detailed account of open market operations, see Ann-Marie Meulendyke, US. Monetary Policy and Financial Markets (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1989), and "Open Market Operations during 1997." Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 84 (July I99S). pp. 517-32. 2. See Joshua N. Feinman and Richard D. Porter. "The Continuing Weakness in M2," Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1992-209 (September 1992). Changes in financial conditions, whether or not driven by shifts in the stance of monetary policy, are an important factor in the spending decisions of households and firms. For example, swings in interest rates can greatly affect the cost of financing purchases of goods on credit. In the case of the stock market, equity price movements have historically been a large component of changes in household wealth, which alter the desired level of consumer spending. Finally, changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar alter the price of domestically produced goods relative to the price of products produced abroad and thereby influence the volume and direction of foreign trade. These financial effects manifest themselves in FRBAJS in several ways. For example, the stock of capital equipment that firms hold is sensitive to movements in the relative price of that stock, which includes the cost of raising funds in both the bond and the equity markets. These financing costs are related to expected real yields on both types of assets—that is, the nominal yield that must be paid to an investor for holding a bond or a corporate equity less the average rate of inflation expected to prevail over the holding period. Similarly, movements in real mortgage and bank loan rates influence the desired level of the housing stock and consumer holdings of motor vehicles and other durable goods. We use the model to derive the quantitative importance of these financial effects for different categories of stocks and spending by computing the response of individual sectors to changes in interest rates, wealth, and the exchange rate in isolation from the rest of the economy (table 1). In particular, no allowance is made here for feedback effects—that is, for a simulated change in sectoral spending to alter, in turn, the original change in financial conditions. This type of calculation, typically dubbed partial-equilibrium analysis, provides a direct measure of the quantita- Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective 1. Partial-equilibrium response of capital stocks and private spending to changes in financial conditions, with other factors constant Percent Gttejutytf riaefc anil speeding Response in level at end of year t 2 3 IS I perceniage point decrease in interest rales Capital slocks Consumer durable goods . Housing Producers' durable equipment Private invtsnhem spending Consumer durable goods Housing .3 .1 .7 .3 ,5 1.3 t.0 4.0 1.7 4,8 1.7 6,8 1.3 5,7 1.3 IJ 3.1 3.8 4.0 Producers' durable equipment1 2fi percent incrca.su in sKx-tt market wealth Private spending Consumer durable goods Housing Consumer .spending on nondurable gnods and services .9 2.4 1.3 35 1,1 2.9 .6 .6 .4 6 percent depreciation of the dollar Exports Imports 1.7 -1.1 4.8 -3.5 5.5 -3.8 5.7 -3.7 1. Includes effect of a i percentage point fall in the rate of return on equity. tive importance of these parts of the transmission mechanism. In the FRB/US model, a decrease in all interest rates—with inflation, income, and other factors he]d constant—boosts the desired stocks of consumer durable goods, business equipment, and residential structures by lowering the relative cost of investment goods (top portion of table 1). Because of frictions that make rapid installation of new capital costly, households and firms do not instantaneously adjust capital stocks to the new long-run desired levels. Instead, adjustment is gradual, especially in the case of producers' durable equipment and housing, for which only a fraction of the long-run rise in the capital stock is in place at the end of three years.2 The gradual adjustment of stocks does not imply that associated investment spending—that is, expenditures on new equipment and structures intended to cover depreciation of the existing stocks as well as any desired net increments to stocks—is slow to respond to a sustained change in interest rates. In fact, the opposite is true: The percentage increase in 2. In FRB/US, movements in interest rates have no direct effect on two other categories of investment—nonresidential structures and inventories. Although such investment should, in theory, depend on interest rates, the empirical evidence for such interest sensitivity is weak. 5 investment outlays for all three categories is substantial in the first year, with spending rising further over the next year or two and even climbing above its long-run percentage change in the case of consumer durable goods and housing. Such a hump-shaped pattern in the response of investment flows (as opposed to the corresponding stocks) is called the accelerator effect. It arises because gross investment spending is typically small in relation to the size of the capital stock, implying that a given percentage change in stocks, if it is to be achieved rapidly, requires a much larger percentage movement in investment outlays. This phenomenon is particularly important for housing, where the ratio of investment outlays to the capital stock is so low that it would take an increase of approximately 25 percent in spending to raise the capital stock 1 percent within a year. As noted previously, financial conditions should have a major influence on private spending through wealth effects because the desired level of consumer spending depends, in part, on the current value of net household assets. An important component of the latter is corporate equity, whether held directly or owned indirectly in the form of mutual fund shares and pension fund reserves. Such stock market wealth (which currently accounts for roughly one-third of household net worth) is highly variable over time and has a tendency to rise whenever real long-term interest rates fall, because of arbitrage between the bond and stock markets. According to the model's pricing formula for the stock market, a 1 percentage point decrease in the real yield on bonds should be accompanied by a 20 percent increase in the value of corporate equity, all else being equal.3 Such a boost to wealth stimulates the various components of household spending by an appreciable amount, particularly in the short run for investment expenditures (middle portion of table I).4 3. In equilibrium, the dividend-price ratio for equities is approximately equal to r + 9 - g, where ;• is the expected yield on bonds, 8 is a premium paid to investors to compensate them for the greater riskiness of equity, and g is the expected growth rate of dividends. Because the historical mean of r + 9 - g is about 5, a I percentage point increase in the yield on bonds reduces equity prices on average by one-fifth, or 20 percent, all else being equal. Although in theory the sensitivity of stock prices to a change in interest rates should shift as /•, 9, and g move over time, this nonlinear effect is ignored in the FRB/US model. 4. Wealth effects such as these are often described in terms of how much an additional dollar of wealth increases consumer spending. In the FRB/US model, an extra dollar of stock market wealth increases spending on average about y/i cents in the long run. However, because the elasticity of spending with respect to wealth is constant in the model, at the present high valuation of the stock market the estimated wealth effect is closer to 2 cents. 6 Federal Reserve Bulletin U January 1999 The final major influence of financial markets on spending occurs through the market for foreign exchange. As with stock prices, the exchange value of the dollar with respect to foreign currencies fluctuates widely over time. However, arbitrage across international money and bond markets causes movements in the exchange rate to be correlated with changes in U.S. interest rates. A version of this relationship, called the uncovered interest parity condition, implies that a 1 percentage point fall in real domestic long-term interest rates should produce an immediate 6 percent depreciation of the dollar, all else being equal.5 In FRB/US, such a depreciation of the dollar boosts the demand for U.S. exports almost 6 percent by lowering the price of American goods expressed in a weighted average of foreign currencies (bottom portion of table 1). In the same manner, depreciation of the dollar increases the domestic price of foreign-produced goods, decreasing the volume of imports almost 4 percent in the long run. In both cases, the adjustment of trade volumes is not instantaneous but is spread over two or three years. The Influence of Changes in Aggregate Income and Sales on Spending Changes in sectoral spending, whether caused by financial factors or other forces, alter the level of aggregate sales, output, and income. Changes in these economywide factors, in turn, further influence the spending of households and firms beyond the financial effects just described. Such general-equilibrium effects are incorporated into simulations of the full FRB/US model. However, as in the analysis of the direct effects on spending of changes in financial conditions, examining this feedback portion of the monetary transmission mechanism in a partialequilibrium framework is instructive. Table 2 summarizes the response of different categories of private spending to a 1 percent increase in the level of aggregate income, output, and sales, with 5. Ignoring risk considerations, ihe uncovered interest parity condition implies that, if the expected yield on a dollar-denominated bond is higher than the yield on a bond denominated in a foreign currency, investors will hold the foreign bond only if the dollar is expected to depreciate by enough to equate the two yields when both are measured in a common currency. For this reason, when domestic interest rates rise relative to foreign rates, the dollar immediately appreciates to ensure the requisite amount of future depreciation. Under the assumption that the duration of the average bond is about six years, a 1 percentage point decrease in the spread between domestic and foreign interest rates should therefore yield a 6 percent depreciation of the dollar. 2. Partial-equilibrium response of capital stocks and private spending to a 1 percent increase in the level of aggregate income, sales, output, and wealth, with other factors constant Percent Category of stock and spending Capital stocks Consumer durable goods Housing Producers' durable equipment .. Inventories Response in level at end of year 3 15 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .1 A I.I .9 .4 .8 1.0 Private investment spending Consumer durable goods Housing Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Inventories' 1.5 3.9 1.3 I.I .8 2.0 5.7 2.0 1.4 .3 1.7 4.7 1.8 1.3 -.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .0 Other private spending Consumer nondurable goods and services Imports .4 1.9 .7 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 2 II I. Change in four-quarter growth rale of inventory stocks. prices, interest rates, and other factors held constant. Because wealth equals the present value of expected future dividends, interest, and other forms of capital income, the net worth of households has also been increased 1 percent. In these simulations, the income shift is permanent and is assumed to be immediately recognized as such by firms and households. The table reveals an important feature of the behavior of households and firms—the speed at which the public adjusts its spending to a change in income and sales. For example, in the model the level of consumer spending depends on both income and wealth. In response to a rise in income and wealth of 1 percent, outlays on consumer nondurable goods and services would be expected to rise proportionally in the absence of any frictions slowing adjustment. However, because such impediments to rapid adjustment are estimated to be significant, this category of consumer spending rises to its new long-run level only after three or four years.6 Households also behave in a gradual manner when adjusting their holdings of durable goods and housing, as do firms when investing in productive capital. But unlike spending on nondurable goods and services, gradual adjustment in these areas manifests 6. Households and firms are much less sensitive to transitory changes in income and sales; for example, the first-year responses shown in table 2 would be roughly halved if the income shift were only temporary. In part, this response results from the life-cycle view of consumer choice built into the model, according to which a temporary blip in household income yields only a small change in the value of lifetime resources. But households and firms are also less willing to respond to changes in income and interest rates viewed as temporary because of habit persistence and adjustment costs. Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective itself in the response of capital stocks to the permanent rise in aggregate income and sales: As in the previous example of a change in financial conditions, investment spending responds quickly. Because private investment spending is a major component of aggregate demand, composing almost one-quarter of nominal gross domestic product (GDP), these accelerator effects have important implications for the dynamic response of the overall economy to disturbances.7 1 Partial equilibrium effect on inflation of a reduction of 1 percentage point in the unemployment rate Percentage point change Sustained reduction Two-year reduction The Influence of Changes in Output on Inflation The final step in the FRB/US transmission mechanism concerns the behavior of inflation. Because of labor contracts and other frictions, wages and prices are slow to adjust to changes in economic conditions. Such "sticky-price" behavior, which is readily apparent in the historical data, is incorporated into the model by making the current rate of aggregate price inflation depend on five factors: (1) the degree to which the markup of prices over unit labor and energy costs is out of line with its historical mean; (2) the recent past rate of price inflation; (3) the rate of growth of unit labor and energy costs expected to prevail in the future; (4) the current and expected degree of slack in labor and product markets; and (5) movements in the relative prices of food, energy, and imports.8 In the model, inflation is predicted to decline as long as labor and capital are underutilized and to rise whenever resource utilization is above average. Diagram 1 illustrates this behavior. The FRB/US model 7. Business inventory decisions tend to augment these accelerator effects because the desired stock of inventories is proportional to the level of aggregate sales. This relation implies that a permanent jump in spending leads to a temporary surge in stockpiling lhat quickly fades. Another area in which spending responds in a hump-shaped pattern is imports, which rise almost 2 percent in the first year after a sustained jump in GDP but then fall back to only 1 percent. In contrast to investment spending, the response of imports to shifts in domestic activity acts as a stabilizing force for the U.S. economy by diverting a portion of any increase in domestic demand to foreign firms. This stabilizing property of import demand is even greater in many other models of foreign trade because they do not impose the equilibrium condition of stable long-run import shares of GDP but allow the long-run income elasticity of imports to be 2 or higher. 8. Aggregate wages are determined in a similar manner, in that wage inflation depends primarily on past wage inflation, expected future growth in consumer prices and labor productivity, and aggregate resource utilization. Wage inflation is also influenced by changes in the minimum wage and payroll taxes. Taking the wage and price equations together, the FRB/US specification of the inflation process is in certain respects similar to the traditional "Phillips curve" model; however, unlike a Phillips curve, it is derived from optimizing behavior and explicitly accounts for the effects of expectations. n i l II I I I I I I I M I II I I 8 predicts that, all else being equal, if the unemployment rate is held 1 percentage point below its equilibrium level on a sustained basis, inflation should climb steadily about 0.4 percentage point a year, provided that the public's expectations for long-run inflation rise gradually in response to the actual pickup in inflation. Alternatively, if the decline in unemployment is temporary, lasting only two years, then the long-term change in the rate of inflation is limited, settling in at about 0.8 percentage point. These partial-equilibrium simulation results have two important implications for monetary policy in the context of FRB/US. The first concerns the absence of a long-run tradeoff between the level of unemployment and that of inflation. Because inflation stabilizes only if unemployment returns to its equilibrium level—a property known as the natural rate hypothesis—long-run economic stability requires real interest rates and other financial conditions to be consistent with a balance between aggregate spending and the productive potential of the economy. For this balance to be achieved, in the long run the nominal value of the federal funds rate must be set to reflect both the prevailing rate of inflation and the underlying determinants of spending and production. The second implication for policy concerns the cost of altering the rate of inflation. If the prevailing rate of inflation has risen because of past episodes of over-utilization of resources or other disturbances directly boosting inflation, then a return to the original inflation rate requires a period of tight monetary policy—that is, for a time, the level of the real funds rate must be elevated above its long-run equilibrium level, causing the unemployment rate to be temporarily above its equilibrium level. If inflation has fallen, then the opposite holds: Restoration of the previous growth rate of prices allows a period of low real interest rates and above-average employment. 8 Federal Reserve Bulletin LJ January 1999 Full-Model Effects of an Easing in Monetary Policy So far the analysis of the FRB/US transmission mechanism has dealt with each of its components in isolation from one another. Now we can put the pieces together and show how the transmission mechanism functions in its entirety by examining the way a drop in the federal funds rate, acting through sector-specific responses to induced changes in financial conditions and income, works to influence aggregate output, unemployment, and inflation. Table 3 summarizes the simulated response (expressed relative to baseline) of the full FRB/US model to a policy action that lowers the federal funds rate by I percentage point on a sustained basis. In this simulation, the public initially interprets the drop in the federal funds rate as a temporary action that will be reversed relatively quickly. Thus, their expectations for the future are little changed at first. As time passes, however, the public interprets the easier stance as a signal that the long-run objectives of monetary policy have changed and that policymakers seek to raise the level of inflation permanently. For this reason, beliefs about the future are revised more and more as the reduction in the funds rate is sustained. The evolving nature of expectations explains why the 1 percentage point decrease in the funds rate initially leads to only a small drop in long-term interest rates (upper portion of table 3). As investors come to believe that the policy easing represents a long-term shift in policy objectives, they gradually revise down their estimate of the average level of short-term interest rates likely to prevail over the next ten years. As a result, bond yields are V2 percentage point below baseline by the end of two years.9 Arbitrage considerations cause this fall in bond yields to affect other asset markets and to lead both to higher stock prices and to a depreciation of the dollar.10 The improvement in financial conditions stimulates activity in various sectors and leads to an 9. The decline in bond yields is also limited by (he public's expectation that nominal short-term interest rates, after falling for an extended time, will eventually recover and then increase by the amount of the revision to the expected long-run rate of inflation. 10. In this simulation and throughout most of the article, it is assumed that the public forms its expectations about the future course ol the economy using a small-scale forecasting system that includes output, inflation, the federal funds rale, an estimate of the economy's long-run equilibrium real short-term interest rate, and an estimate of the long-run trend level of inflation sought by policymakers. This particular characterization of expectations is discussed in Brayton and others, "The Role of Expectations in the FRB/US Macroeconomic Model.' 3. Monetary transmission mechanism in the FRB/US model: Full-model simulated effect of a 1 percentage point fall in the federal funds rate Percent Response at end of year Item 1 2 Change from baseline Financial markets Yield on 10-year Treasury bonds Slock market prices Exchange rale value of the dollar Aggregate activity GDP (chain-weighted 1992 dollars) Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation rate -.3 8.8 -2.2 -JS 12.7 -4.9 .6 -.2 .2 1.7 -.7 .6 Portion of total response Decomposition of GDP response into expenditure allegories' Consumer spending, durable goods (8.3) . Consumer spending, other (59.4) Business fixed investment (10.6) Residential investment (4.0) Inventory investment (0.8) Exports (11.9) Imports (-13.1) Government (17.9) 24.0 28.0 13.0 26.2 16.4 7.1 -17.5 2.4 18.6 26.2 18.5 24.0 10.7 13.0 -14.8 3.4 Decomposition of GDP response into transmission channels Cost of borrowing Slock market Exchange rate value of the dollar Anticipated nonlinancial responses 26.9 16.0 6.9 50.2 36.4 20.7 17.3 25.7 Decomiwsition of inflation response into transmission channels Resource utilization Exchange rate value of the dollar Anticipated nonlinancial responses 10.6 24.8 64.6 33,1 22.4 44.5 I. 1997 nominal shares of GDP in parentheses. increase in the level of real GDP. This increase is initially modest, but as adjustment proceeds and accelerator effects kick in, the response of aggregate spending quickens, and by the end of two years, real GDP has risen about P/4 percent above its baseline level. As suggested by the earlier discussion of financial influences on spending, investment spending accounts for a disproportionate share of the increase in GDP (table 3, lower portion). For example, at the end of two years the change in residential investment accounts for about one-quarter of the increase in output even though it constitutes only 4 percent of aggregate spending, and the portions of the GDP response attributable to outlays on consumer durable goods and business fixed investment are roughly twice their expenditure shares. Inventory investment also plays a disproportionate role in the rise of aggregate demand. Another way to decompose the GDP response is to break it down into its primary transmission channels—that is, the separate effects on spending of changes in the cost of borrowing, stock market Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macweconomy: The FRB/US Perspective wealth, and the exchange rate discussed earlier, as well as a fourth channel, anticipated nonfinancial responses. In the model simulation, changes in the funds rate exert a direct influence on expectations of future movements in output and inflation. In essence, this influence can be thought of as an anticipation of the effects of the other three channels on aggregate activity that have yet to materialize. For this reason, the importance of this anticipatory channel fades as the direct effects of the other channels emerge in full and expectations of future conditions are realized in actual developments. But the anticipations channel is powerful in the short run, and it accounts for about half of the total response of aggregate output in the first year (lower portion of table 3). By contrast, only a quarter of the first-year GDP response is directly attributable to current and past declines in the cost of borrowing; wealth effects and dollar depreciation account for even smaller shares. By the second year, the importance of anticipated changes in aggregate income and other variables that have not yet materialized is considerably diminished. Commensurately, that of the three standard channels is raised—particularly the exchange rate channel, where adjustment of trade flows to dollar depreciation is especially drawn out. As with the GDP response, the movement in aggregate price inflation can also be decomposed into its primary determinants, including a channel that measures the anticipated effect of the policy easing on expected changes in the future growth rate of trend unit production costs that have yet to emerge. Such anticipation effects—related in part to the public's evolving view of the long-run rate of inflation sought by policymakers—are extremely important in the short run and account for almost half of the two-year change in actual inflation. However, their effect by the end of the third year—not shown in table 3—is zero. The contribution of current and past changes in resource utilization is also considerable, as is that of exchange rate depreciation. The latter arises because a large portion of the induced decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar is passed through into the dollar-denominated price of imports, which in turn directly boosts consumer prices. SOME MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF AGGREGATE DISTURBANCES The preceding discussion showed how policy actions are transmitted throughout the economy, affecting real variables, such as consumption and output, and nominal variables, such as inflation. This section 9 looks at the monetary mechanism in a slightly different way by examining monetary policy responses to disturbances originating from elsewhere in the economy. These experiments show that the way in which monetary policy reacts to shocks, together with the nature of the shock itself, influences the way in which the economy evolves over time. Simple macroeconometric models have only a few possible types of disturbances, often just generic shifts in aggregate demand and supply. But in a larger model like FRB/US, as well as in the real world, the kinds of disturbances are numerous (see box "On Defining and Measuring Shocks"). In this section, the focus is on the implications for policy of two general classes of disturbances: shocks whose primary initial influence is on spending ("demand" disturbances) and shocks whose initial effect is mainly on prices or production ("supply" disturbances). All shocks differ, and their classification is not always straightforward. There are, however, some broad similarities of disturbances within a class and important differences in the policy implications of each type of shock. A Shift in the Equity Premium As just noted, demand shocks include any disturbance directly affecting people's willingness to spend. In FRB/US, shifts in foreign demand, personal income taxes, and asset prices are examples of demand disturbances. In regard to the last example, movements in stock market wealth that are not explained by changes in interest rates and other fundamentals are frequent occurrences. These may occur because people suddenly reassess the riskiness of the stock market and demand a higher or a lower rate of return for holding equities relative to bonds. This reassessment is called a change in the equity premium. For illustrative purposes, we use the FRB/US model to simulate a permanent rise in the equity premium that is sufficient to bring about an initial 20 percent decline in stock market wealth. Many policy responses to this disturbance could be considered; results for three of them, expressed as changes from baseline, are summarized in diagrams 2 and 3. Policy cannot completely offset the consequences of the rise in the equity premium for stock prices; so regardless of the policy response, the initial fall in real stock-market wealth is essentially the same (diagram 2, upper-left panel). For consumers, this development represents a significant decline in the wealth that can be allocated to fund current and future expen- 10 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 ditures. For firms, the higher premium implies an increase in the cost of financing capital outlays using equity. The FRB/US model predicts that, in the absence of adjustment costs, consumers would respond to this change in financial conditions by reducing the level of consumption approximately 0.6 percent and firms would cut equipment investment a bit more than 0.8 percent per year. (That is, the frictionless responses to the rise in the equity premium would be identical to the fifteen-year partial-equilibrium changes shown in table 1.) However, neither category of expenditures falls by this amount at first because of the adjustment costs and other frictions discussed earlier (diagram 3, top panels). Falling demand and the associated rise in unemployment put downward pressure on inflation. Monetary policy can reinforce this effect on output and inflation if it fails to respond to the change in the macroeconomic environment. Because the rise in the equity premium is permanent, it leads to a sustained loss in wealth and a permanent increase in the saving rate. As a result, permanently lower real interest rates are necessary after the shock to restore equilibrium. Thus, if the nominal federal funds rate were kept constant, the initial value of the real federal funds On Defining and Measuring Shocks In the context of a model, a disturbance is any factor affecting spending and other variables that is not itself determined by the equations of the model—that is, any factor exogenous to the system. These exogenous factors fall into two categories. The first includes all explanatory variables determined outside macroeconomic models, such as population growth. The second category includes the errors—the difference between the model's predictions and actual historical outcomes—made by the model's equations. This definition of shocks makes it clear that the decomposition of movements in economic data into the portion explained by a model's structure and the portion attributable to autonomous influences depends on the model used in the analysis. For example, in the FRB/US model, movements in the relative price of oil are treated as autonomous and not affected by changes in energy use and production. However, a model of greater complexity might include equations for the world demand and supply of petroleum and thus would attribute at least some changes in the price of oil to factors internal to the model, rather than classifying them as disturbances. Similarly, FRB/US and other models with a fully articulated supply side distinguish between exogenous changes in prices and autonomous disturbances to productivity. However, in smaller models that lack an aggregate production function, such as the IS-LM-Phillips-curve system of many textbooks, the wage-price block is often simply called a short-run supply curve, and price disturbances are therefore frequently referred to as supply shocks.1 The measurement of shocks is also influenced by empirical methodology, as illustrated by research in the early 1980s that suggested that permanent shocks to supply are important in explaining movements in real GDP. The relative importance and the persistence of supply and demand shocks remain subjects of considerable research and I. See Laurence Ball and N. Gregory Mankiw, "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks." Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110 (February 1995). pp. 161-93. debate.2 Such uncertainty over the duration of disturbances complicates monetary policy because of the significant lag between changes in the federal funds rate and the response of aggregate output, unemployment, and inflation. Thus, policymakers must often act before they have complete information; for example, in the case of an unexplained movement in equity prices, they must act without knowing how long the bull or bear market will last. Finally, the definition and measurement of shocks is influenced by the theoretical approach used to construct the economic model. New Keynesian models such as FRB/US allow for direct disturbances to many sectors of the economy without inquiring too closely into the exact nature of these disturbances.3 By contrast, another class of models— known as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models—are based on the view that the economy is subject to only a small number of fundamental disturbances to consumer tastes and production technology.4 Such models place more importance than do New Keynesian models on the role of productivity shocks in explaining economic fluctuations. These models also interpret historical responses of output and employment to disturbances as people's optimal adjustments, rather than as a failure of markets to clear. Accordingly, DSGE models assign a much smaller role to monetary policy in mitigating the effects of macroeconomic disturbances than do New Keynesian models like FRB/US. 2. See Charles R. Nelson and Charles I. Plosser, "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications." Journatof Monetary Economics, vol. 10 (September 1982), pp. 139-62, and Pierre Perron, "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Ecanometrica. vol. 57 (November 1989). pp. 1361-401, for examples of research into the permanence of supply shocks. 3. One consequence of this approach is that a real-world event may manifest itself as a set of simultaneous disturbances to different portions of the model. For example, the recent Asian financial crisis appears as an autonomous decline in foreign output, a reduction in relative oil prices, an unexpected appreciation of the dollar, and a fall in the premium incorporated into U.S. bond yields. 4. For an introduction to DSGE models, see Edward Prescott, "Theory ahead of Business Cycle Measurement," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, vol. 10 (Fall 1986). pp. 9-21. Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective rate would be too high (diagram 2, lower-right panel). The high real rate would put additional downward pressure on aggregate spending and thereby raise unemployment and push down inflation (diagram 2, middle-left and middle-right panels respectively). As a result, the real funds rate would rise further. If allowed to persist, this policy would result in a continuing downward spiral of falling output and inflation, driven by ever-rising real interest rates. An alternative policy is to fix the real interest rate at its initial level. The lower-left panel of diagram 2 shows a substantial decline in the nominal funds rate associated with this policy (curve for fixed real funds rate). As already noted, however, a recovery in aggregate demand requires that the real interest rate fall. 2. 1] Thus, fixing the real rate is also destabilizing in the long run. Therefore, in response to a demand shock, and in the absence of some additional countervailing disturbance, the real rate must be moved in the same direction as the movement in demand resulting from the equity shock. One policy response that fits this description is shown by the curve for stabilizing policy in the lower-left panel of diagram 2. The reduction in the funds rate shown is small but long lasting and so is sufficient for bringing inflation and unemployment back to their previous levels. The mechanism through which this policy works is that described previously in the full-model simulation of the effects of an easing in policy: According to the FRB/US model, a A permanent increase in the equity premium (deviation from baseline) Percentage point change Percentage point change Real slock market wealth Real GDP — 5.0 — 10.0 15.0 -I 1 I Fixed nominal funds rate I I 1 I 1 L. Unemployment rate Consumer inflation (four-quarter average) — 0.4 — 0.2 — r— 0.4 I I i I j i L Nominal federal funds rate J U j L I i Real federal funds; rate j L — 0.2 — 0.4 I I I I I I 1 I J [_ i i I 12 3. Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 A permanent increase in the equity premium and the components of spending (deviation from baseline) Percentage point change Percentage point change Camsamer goods and services Producers' durable goads i reduction in the federal funds rate today lowers real interest rates today and generates expectations of lower rates and of higher output in the future. These expectations, in turn, elicit higher domestic spending by raising the target level of consumption and investment spending. These effects are supplemented by an expectations-driven decrease in corporate bond rates, which helps the stock market recover some of its initial losses." Finally, the reduction in domestic interest rates puts downward pressure on the exchange value of the U.S. dollar, improving international competitiveness and strengthening the trade balance (diagram 3, bottom panels). The stabilizing policy promptly returns both inflation and resource utilization close to their original levels. Only a brief, small acceleration in inflation I I. The value of stock-market wealth recovers somewhat in the quarter immediately following the shift in the equity premium because of expectations on the part of bond-market participants that the initial loss of wealth will reduce the equilibrium real interest rate. Equity prices rise in response to this expectation because of asset arbitrage. Beyond the first quarter or two, expected real corporate bond rates fall because of expectations of lower short-term nominal interest rates in the future and sluggish adjustment of price inflation. This fall permits the modest recovery in stock market wealth to persist. However, when the nominal federal funds rate is held fixed, once expectations of declines in the federal funds rate go unrealized, stock market wealth begins to fall once again. i I i i i and a slight increase in unemployment are borne by the economy. The increase in inflation is attributable to exchange-rate pass-through, for the fall in the dollar also leads to higher prices of imported consumer goods, which are then passed through into a higher rate of consumer price inflation. For the most part, this ability to offset simultaneously the output and the inflation consequences of demand disturbances is a feature of the FRB/US model, and of all models of its class: Stabilizing both output and inflation are complementary objectives in the presence of a shift in aggregate demand. As diagram 2 shows, there is a monetary policy setting associated with a path for the real interest rate that stabilizes inflation and unemployment. However, under this policy, consumer expenditures are significantly lower throughout the period shown in the upper-left panel of diagram 3 and for the period beyond. Thus, monetary policy cannot fully replace the loss of wealth and consumption caused by the rise in the equity premium. This result illustrates the general principle that in the long run policy can only restore normal levels of resource utilization and determine the prevailing rate of inflation; it cannot undo all the effects of permanent shifts in fundamentals. Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective An Acceleration in Wage Compensation In contrast to demand shocks, some macroeconomic disturbances affect prices directly and only afterward have an influence on real quantities. Shocks in this category include autonomous movements in the prices of food and energy. Such shocks, together with direct disruptions to the supply of labor or other aspects of production, present policymakers with short-term tradeoffs not encountered in the case of demand shocks. One typical example of a price shock is an unanticipated change in wage compensation. This change may occur for a number of reasons: In the context of a macroeconomic model, the precise origin of shocks is not always clear. For present purposes it suffices to 4. 13 consider an autonomous temporary acceleration in wage inflation without any accompanying shocks to aggregate demand, labor supply, or the like. For this experiment, the shock raises the four-quarter wage inflation rate by 1 percentage point after a year. Having established that there are circumstances under which pegging either nominal or real interest rates leads to macroeconomic instability, we restrict our attention to policies that stabilize either unemployment or inflation. Simulation results are shown in diagram 4. As expected, the wage-growth disturbance acts directly and immediately on wages and prices and then on measures of real activity. And as before, monetary policy cannot realistically offset the initial effects of the shock: Wage inflation rises by essen- Transitory increase in wage compensation (deviation from baseline) Percentage point change Percentage point change Nominal wage growth (four-quarter average) Consumer inflation (four-quarter average) Inflation stabilization 1 I i t i I i i i I i i i 1 i i i I i i i Real GDP l i i i 1 i i i I t i i I \ , i Unemployment rate — 0.6 — 0.4 — 0.5 — 1.0 I i i i I i i i 1 i i i I i i i I i i i i I I I I I ! l i i I i : i l 1 Real federal funds rate Nominal federal funds rate I i i i I — 1.0 — —•• — 0.5 — — 0.5 — 0.5 — — 0.5 I i | I I I t I I 1 F I 1.0 14 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 tially the same amount over the first year of the scenario, regardless of the policy responses considered (diagram 4, upper-left panel). All else being equal, the acceleration in wages squeezes the profit margins of firms, inducing a wage-price spiral as firms push up prices in an attempt to re-establish their profit margins. A policy of keeping the inflation rate close to its original level must therefore raise the nominal (and real) federal funds rate early and by a substantial amount (the curves for inflation stabilization, bottom panels). This policy tightening results in an extended period of higher unemployment (middle-right panel). Over time, expectations of future price and wage inflation are brought into line with policy objectives, and real variables return to equilibrium levels. The depiction of the economy when policy attempts to stabilize unemployment contrasts sharply with the inflation-stabilization case. Because unemployment is slow to respond to falling profit margins, under this strategy the federal funds rate initially remains unchanged (bottom-left panel). The shock therefore propagates into higher and longer-lasting inflation than is the case when policy reacts promptly to head off an emerging wage-price spiral (topright panel). Under this policy, only when growing demand pressure begins to show up in employment do nominal interest rates rise, and then only enough to maintain unemployment near its baseline level (middle-right panel). By this time, the experience of higher inflation has become entrenched in expectations. Beyond the end of the period shown, price and wage inflation do not return to their original levels: Without an active effort by the monetary authority to contain the actual and expected growth of prices at the original low rates, inflation tends to drift with whatever relative-price disturbances hit the economy. This result is a direct consequence of the natural rate hypothesis embedded in the FRB/US and most other models. For all such models, full employment is consistent with any constant inflation rate, and for the economy to arrive at a particular inflation rate, the monetary authority must take appropriate action— that is, it must establish a nominal anchor.12 12. An extensive literature compares the virtues of possible nominal anchors, which include the price level, the nominal exchange rate, commodity prices, nominal income, and the inflation rate. For a general discussion of this issue, see Bennett T. McCallum "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules" in John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford. eds., Handbook of Macroeconomics (North-Holland, forthcoming). A readable guide to inflation targeting is Ben S. Bernanke and others, Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience (Princeton University Press, 1999). A Shift in the Level of Productivity Besides being subject to shifts in relative prices, the economy is affected by disturbances to the availability or efficiency of inputs to the production process. Changes in labor supply, crop failures, and technological innovations are common examples of such shocks to supply. A supply disturbance that economists often study is a shift in total factor productivity—that is, an unanticipated change in the volume of output that can be produced with a given level of productive inputs. Some implications of a temporary slowdown in productivity growth are illustrated in diagram 5. In the simulation, the slowdown gradually reduces the level of potential output 1 percent over two years, after which productivity growth returns to normal but the level of potential output remains permanently lower (upper-right panel). One reason for such a decline in productivity might be that research and development expenditures temporarily yield an abnormally low flow of technical innovations. Two policy responses to such an event are considered. In one, policy acts to bring inflation promptly back to its original level, and in the other, policy stabilizes inflation more gradually. In either case, policymakers and the public are assumed to understand that the reduction in the level of productivity is permanent. The effect of this shock on real GDP can be split into two parts. First, the level of potential output falls by 1 percent, so that if resource utilization does not change, the level of real GDP must fall proportionally. Second, the other dynamic aspects of adjusting spending behavior cause the initial decline in outlays to be greater than that of potential output, with the result that unemployment rises. On the price side, the fall in productivity reduces the equilibrium real wage by 1 percent. Reestablishment of labor market equilibrium requires that the real wage fall to this new equilibrium level; monetary policy influences whether the reduction in the real wage occurs through a period of low wage growth, of higher price inflation, or a combination of both. For monetary policy to keep price inflation close to its original level (curve for rapid stabilization of inflation, middle-right panel), the nominal federal funds rate needs to rise immediately and by a substantial amount (lower-left panel). Raising the funds rate in this way counteracts the expectation that some of the adjustment in real wages will take place through higher prices. With this policy response, the upward pressure on prices is short-lived. The decline in productivity Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective 5. 15 Temporary reduction in productivity growth (deviation from baseline) Percentage point change Penwilagc point change Real GDP Potential output Gradual stabilization of inflation Rapid stabilization of inflation Wage inflation (four-quarter average) Consumer inflation (four-quarter average) — 1 L I I I I t 1 1 i 1 _ i 1 .1 I I i Nominal federal funds rate I 1 1 U-J l i l t i_J L_J I I. ,1. .1 ..I. Real federal funds tale — 1.0 reduces the desired capital stock, bringing down investment. Similarly, the falling real wage reduces labor income, bringing down consumption. The accelerator mechanisms discussed in the previous section tend to make producers' durable equipment and consumption expenditures overshoot their new, lower long-run levels. Accordingly, significant excess supply emerges by the second year. The initial tightening in policy thus gives way shortly thereafter to substantial easing to support aggregate demand and contain emerging expectations of disinflation. In the end, the policy succeeds in achieving tight control of inflation but at the cost of sizable swings in output around potential. This policy response is just one of many that are consistent with keeping the inflation rate from driftover long periods of time. In the diagram, the Digitizeding for FRASER I 0.05 — 1.0 — 0.5 — 0.5 — 1.0 l I I I I I I i II curves for gradual stabilization show another, more gradual response to the shift in potential output. The early tightening of policy in this case is designed to be one-half the size of the tightening just discussed, as measured by the nominal funds rate. This policy results in more of the real wage adjustment taking place through prices, rather than through nominal wages. It also results in less short-run fluctuation in aggregate spending (upper-left panel). Finally, this less-aggressive policy results in less variability of the nominal federal funds rate throughout the period. These alternative policies show that, in the context of the FRB/US model, policy that seeks to stabilize inflation must establish a nominal anchor in the long run, but doing so still leaves considerable latitude for different short-run responses to disturbances. In the case of supply shocks (broadly defined to include 16 Federal Reserve Bulletin l_ January 1999 price disturbances), policies that work aggressively against movements in inflation do so at the expense of greater variability in output and interest rates. In contrast, policies that are less strict about short-run control of inflation result in lower variability of output and interest rates by accepting larger fluctuations of inflation. Thus, although there is no long-run tradeoff between the level of employment and that of inflation, supply shocks in the FRB/US model do present policymakers with tradeoffs in variability among output, inflation, and interest rates. Lconomic Disturbances and General Policy Responses The disturbances discussed above are merely three among the many whose economic effects can be simulated using the FRB/US model. The macroeconomic consequences of a selection of these shocks, including the three just presented, are summarized in table 4. Some of these disturbances—a fall in stock market wealth, a rise in foreign output, and a change in fiscal policy—can be classified as demand shocks. Others—higher wage inflation, a fall in productivity, an increase in oil prices, and a hike in the minimum wage—are examples of supply disturbances. Still others—a depreciation of the dollar and a decline in the relative price of capital goods—combine features of both types of shocks in that they directly affect both spending and production (or prices). To simplify the comparison of results across the different disturbances, the effects of each disturbance are first simulated holding the real federal funds rate constant (table 4, left-hand portion). Comparing results for the various disturbances reveals a range of macroeconomic outcomes, indicating that each shock has its unique influence on the economy. The results also provide guidance on the direction of the change in the federal funds rate that would be needed to stabilize employment or inflation or both in the model, as well as a rough sense of which shocks would require greater or smaller shifts in the stance of policy. In theory, individualized policy responses could be crafted to accompany each specific disturbance, with the goal of delivering particular macroeconomic outcomes, subject to the limitation that policy cannot eliminate all short-run fluctuations in both aggregate employment and inflation in the case of supply shocks. In practice, however, the economy often experiences several disturbances at the same time; in addition, policymakers and the public alike may find it difficult to identify the precise nature of shocks as they occur. For this reason, it is useful to consider generalized policy responses that have the property of gradually stabilizing output and inflation in the face of a wide range of economic disturbances. A simple example of such a policy is the Taylor rule.13 According to the rule, the nominal federal funds rate is raised by 150 basis points for each percentage point increase in the rate of inflation. In addition, the rule also increases the federal funds rate by 50 basis points for each percentage point that real GDP exceeds its potential level (a measure usually referred to as the output gap). In the context of the FRB/US model, the rule's procedure for setting the federal funds rate stabilizes the economy for a wide range of macroeconomic disturbances. As shown in the right-hand portion of table 4, the Taylor rule does not ensure that complete stabilization of output and inflation will be achieved in a period as short as three years. Relative to a policy of holding the real funds rate constant, however, the rule does successfully prevent longer-term macroeconomic instability: For all the disturbances, both unemployment and inflation are within 0.1 percentage point of their baseline values after ten years.14 MONETARY POLICY AND AVERAGE MA CR0EC0N0M1C PERFORMA NCE The simulations of various disturbances discussed above are examples of the ways in which monetary policy actions affect movements in prices and unemployment after disturbances to aggregate demand and supply. As was noted, disturbances to aggregate demand typically do not present policymakers with a tradeoff between the objective of price stability and that of employment stability: Adjusting the stance of monetary policy to bring the level of economic activity closer to its potential simultaneously acts to damp any upward or downward pressure on inflation. By contrast, production and price disturbances do present policymakers with a tradeoff between the variability of output and that of inflation, though not between the levels: In FRB/US, there is no long-run tradeoff 13. The Taylor rule was introduced "lo preserve the concept o f . . . a polity nile in an environment where it is practically impossible to follow mechanically the algebraic formulas economists write down to describe their preferred policy rules." John B. Taylor, "Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice" Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 39 (1993). p. 197. 14. For many of the disturbances, GDP and the federal funds rate do not return to baseline. Such long-run shifts occur when the shock permanently alters the level of potential GDP or the steady-stale rate of interest or both. Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective 4. 17 Simulated inacroeconomic effects of selected disturbances under alternative monetary policies Percent change from baseline except as noted Macroeconomic measure Constant real funds rate Taylor rule Response at end of year Response at end of year 10 10 Stock market: Reduction in stock market wealth of 20 percent ex ante, caused by permanent increase in the equity premium GDP1 Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation - . Nominal federal funds rate -.8 .3 _2 -2 -1.0 .4 -.4 -.4 -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 -.2 .1 .0 -.3 -.3 .1 .0 -.3 .1 .0 -.1 .0 .0 -.4 Wages: Four quarters of unanticipated increases in nominal wage growth cumulating to I percentage point 1 GDP Unemployment rale Consumer price inflation3 . Nominal federal funds rale -.2 .1 .7 .7 -.3 .2 .6 .6 -I .0 .3 ,3 .0 .0 .2 .2 -.3 .2 .6 .8 -.5 .3 .5 .6 -.1 .0 .1 .1 Potential GDP: Eight-quarter reduction in total factor productivity growth cumulating to a permanent 1 percent fall in the level 1 GDP Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation2 . Nominal federal funds rate -1.2 .1 .3 .3 -1.4 .3 .1 .0 -.1 -.1 -.5 .0 .1 .1 -1.3 .2 .3 -1.3 .3 .1 -.1 -.9 .0 .0 .0 Exchange rale: Permanent ex ante 10 percent reduction in the real exchange value of the dollar GDP1 Unemployment rale Consumer price inflation - . Nominal federal funds rate 1.6 -.4 .5 .5 2.5 -1.0 .4 .4 3.8 -1.9 3.0 3.0 .4 -.1 .4 .7 1.0 -.2 .4 1.2 1.2 -.5 -.1 .8 -.5 -.1 Oil prices: Permanent increase in relative oil prices cumulating to $10 per barrel over four quarters GDP1 Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation2 . Nominal federal funds rale -.2 .1 .2 .2 -.2 -.3 -.3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .1 .1 .2 -I.I .0 -.1 .1 .2 -.2 .1 .4 -.2 .0 .0 .4 —4 .2 .3 .2 Foreign output: Permanent 5 percent increase in the trend level of foreign GDP GDP' Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation3 . Nominal federal funds rate .9 -.5 .4 .4 1.6 1.3 1.3 .6 -.2 .0 .4 .4 -.2 .1 .4 Income taxes: Permanent increase in federal personal income taxes equal to 1 percent of GDP ex ante 1 GDP Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation2 ., Nominal federal funds rate . -.4 .1 .0 .0 -1.0 .4 -.3 -.3 -1.5 .7 -1.2 -1.2 -.3 .1 .0 -.2 -.5 .2 .0 -.4 -.5 .2 .0 -.4 -.1 .1 .0 -.7 Government expenditures: Permanent increase in federal government purchases of goods and services equal to I percent of GDP 1 GDP Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation2 .. Nominal federal funds rale . 1.4 -.5 1.4 -.7 .5 .5 1.1 -.7 .7 .6 1.1 -.6 1.4 1.4 I.I -.3 .0 .7 .5 -.3 .1 .7 .0 -.2 .5 Minimum wage: Permanent $1 per hour increase in the minimum wage, indexed to inflation GDP1 Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation - .. Nominal federal funds rale . .0 .0 .3 .3 -.3 .2 .7 .7 -.2 .2 .5 .5 -.1 .0 ,3 .2 -.0 .0 .3 ,4 —4 .2 .7 .8 -.4 .3 .4 .4 Capital goods prices: Permanent 5 percent fall in the relative price of business equipment GDP1 Unemployment rate Consumer price inflation3 . Nominal federal funds rate .2 .0 .0 .0 .6 -.2 .0 ' .0 1. Gross domestic product measured in chain-weighted 199^ dollars. 1.0 -.3 2.2 -.6 1.0 1.0 .2 .0 .0 .5 -.1 .0 .2 .7 „2 .0 .3 .7 .0 2. Four-quarter growth rate of chain-weighted price index for personal consumption expenditures. 18 Federal Reserve Bulletin D January 1999 between unemployment and inflation.15 Thus, as seen in the experiment of a negative shock to productivity, a policy that forcefully acts to keep inflation in check achieves this objective at the cost of more pronounced fluctuations in economic activity and unemployment. Alternatively, a more muted initial policy response limits the magnitude of the fall in employment but does so at the cost of larger swings in inflation. In the context of the full range of demand and supply disturbances hitting the economy, any systematic policy response to changes in macroeconomic conditions embodies its own particular average tradeoff between variability of output and that of inflation. For example, because the Taylor rule discussed earlier responds to movements in inflation and the output gap in a fixed fashion, it generates a predictable stabilization path for different economic measures following any given set of macroeconomic disturbances. Taking account of all the possible shocks that might be encountered over time, and adjusting for their likelihood, one can compute the average variability of output, inflation, and interest rates likely to be experienced under the Taylor rule. Similar calculations can be made for other systematic policy responses—for example, policies that allow for larger or smaller responses to movements in inflation and the output gap or that include responses to past or projected levels of interest, inflation, and other variables. To analyze the stability implications of the Taylor rule and other systematic policy responses, policy is assumed to follow a generalized policy rule of the form r, = a + br, _ , + CK, + dv,, where r, denotes the federal funds rate in quarter /, n is the four-quarter inflation rate, y is the output gap, and a, b, c, and d are the coefficients of the policy rule. The coefficients of such a generalized policy rule determine how quickly and aggressively policy responds both to deviations of inflation from its target rate and to the output gap.16 The choice of coefficient values thus affects the volatility of inflation and output in the economy. For example, 15. In ihe model, there is a limited long-run effect of inflation on the level of real GDP because [he tax system is not neutral in relation to the average rate of inflation. Thus, a change in the average rate of inflation affects the after-tax cost of capital, investment, and potential GDP. 16. For the Taylor rule, b = 0, c = 1.5, d = 0.5, and the intercept a depends on ihe economy's equilibrium real interest rate and the long-run rate of inflation sought by policymakers. policies that respond aggressively to inflation—that is, ones for which the value of c is large—will be associated with a lower average volatility of inflation. The coefficient b on the lagged funds rate measures to what extent the current setting of the funds rate depends on past observations of inflation and output. The FRB/US model can be used to evaluate the relationship between policy and macroeconomic fluctuations. With a specific set of coefficient values for the generalized policy rule, one can compute the standard deviations of inflation and the output gap associated with that specific policy rule, based on stochastic simulations in which the FRB/US model is repeatedly subjected to random supply and demand shocks based on the experience of the past thirty years.17 The shocks include random disturbances to the labor, goods, financial, and foreign markets. This process is then repeated for many different sets of policy coefficients. Diagram 6 summarizes the results of this experiment. The shaded area shows the inflation and output volatilities that result from choices of coefficients in the generalized policy rule, subject to a constraint that the variability of the federal funds rate does not exceed a specified level.18 This limit on funds rate variability serves the purpose of excluding from the analysis "unreasonable" policy rules that are highly effective in offsetting aggregate disturbances (in particular those to demand) but, in so doing, generate wild swings in interest rates. For purposes of these simulations, we assume that the public is fully aware of the policy in place and forms expectations consistent with that policy and the structure of the model.19 In addition, the long-run inflation goal of policymakers is assumed to be constant. In general, points in the lower left portion of the shaded region represent better outcomes, in terms of a lower variability of both inflation and output, than 17. For a complete description of the methodology used in this experiment see Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland, and John C. Williams, "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," in Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor, ed. (University of Chicago Press, forthcoming). 18. In the FRB/US model, the connection between the level of the output gap and the unemployment rate is close. Thus, in terms of the diagram, greater volatility of the output gap implies greater volatility of the unemployment rate around its equilibrium level. 19. Such expectations are called model consistent, and they differ somewhat from those in the previous sections of the article, in which the public was assumed to have an approximate, but not exact, understanding of monetary policy and the workings of the economy in general. In the present context, model-consistent expectations have the advantage of preventing expectational errors caused by the public's misunderstanding of policy procedures—errors that would be unlikely to occur in the long run if policymakers were to adopt standard procedures. Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective 6. FRB/US policy frontier SlwKjani deviation of oulpul gap 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Standard deviation of inflation rate do points in the upper right. The curve on the boundary of the shaded region, labeled "policy frontier," shows the minimum output variability attainable for a given amount of inflation variability. Thus, the frontier represents the best attainable set of outcomes for the types of policy considered here. Many policies, however, are associated with outcomes well away from the frontier. Modifications to such inefficient policies can lead to outcomes in which the fluctuations of inflation and output are both smaller on average. For example, a policy associated with the outcome labeled point C in the diagram can be changed so that the resulting outcome is given by point B, which represents a lower variability of both inflation and output. One can draw a number of conclusions from these results. First, among policies on the frontier, there is, as expected, a tradeoff between inflation variability and output variability. As in the examples of shocks to wages and productivity, a policy that decreases the variability of inflation does so at the cost of an increase in the variability of output. As noted, the variability tradeoff stems fundamentally from the existence of supply shocks. Shocks of this type present policymakers with the choice of keeping a tight rein on inflation and accepting large movements in resource utilization or allowing the inflation rate to fluctuate significantly in the short run while tempering the movements in unemployment and output. 19 Demand shocks, however, present no such conflict: A policy that offsets demand shocks effectively stabilizes both inflation and output.20 Not surprisingly, policies that respond relatively aggressively to inflation and only moderately to output generate outcomes of low inflation variability and high output variability. For example, point B on the policy frontier results from a policy that is about 50 percent more responsive to inflation and about 50 percent less responsive to the output gap than the policy associated with point A on the frontier. A couple of caveats are worth mentioning. First, these results are specific to the FRB/US model; other models may provide different conclusions regarding the existence and characteristics of the tradeoff between inflation variability and output variability. Second, an assumption of the experiment is that the policymaker faces no uncertainty regarding the coefficients or structure of the model and the accuracy of the data, factors that in reality greatly complicate policymakers' decisionmaking. Uncertainties regarding the state of the economy, the "true" model of the economy, and the incidence of supply versus demand shocks may suggest modifications to the types of policy rules considered here.21 In summary, this analysis using the FRB/US model shows that, for well-chosen policies, there is a tradeoff between reducing the magnitude of fluctuations in inflation and reducing those in employment and output. Within the set of efficient policies—that is, those associated with the policy frontier—the choice of appropriate monetary policy depends on the weights that policymakers place on stabilizing inflation relative to stabilizing employment. C 20. Demand shocks cause a different kind of tradeoff, that between stabilizing inflation and output and minimizing the volatility of movements in interest rates. According to the FRB/US model, to fully offset the effect of all demand disturbances, it would be necessary to regularly raise or lower the federal funds rate by multiple percentage points within a year. Because such violent movements in interest rates may have harmful repercussions on the efficient operation of financial markets, monetary policy in practice is limited to damping the effects of demand disturbances—it cannot eliminate them. 21. Fora further discussion of these issues, see John B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules (forthcoming). 20 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision Charles Gilbert and Richard Raddock, of the Board's Division of Research and Statistics, prepared this article. Robert Ritterbeck provided research assistance. REVISIONS TO PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION In late 1998, the Federal Reserve published revised indexes of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and utilization for the period January 1992 through October 1998. For the third quarter of 1998, the revision placed the production index at 131.6 percent of output in 1992, compared with 128.2 percent reported previously, and the capacity index at 161.5 percent of output in 1992, compared with 158.1 percent reported previously.1 As a result, the rate of industrial capacity utilization—the ratio of production to capacity—for that quarter was revised up 0.3 percentage point, to 81.5 percent. (Summary data for total industry and manufacturing are shown in appendix tables A.I and A.2.) The revised increases in the total IP index are about the same as those shown previously for 1993 and 1994 but are faster for 1995-98 (table A.3). The revised annual rate of growth has averaged 4.5 percent since 1994, 0.8 percentage point higher than previously shown; the upward revision for 1996 forward was close to 1 percentage point per year. The index shows the same pattern of output growth since 1992: No quarter shows a decrease in output, but gains were slower between the second quarter of 1995 and the first quarter of 1996, and again beginning with the first quarter of 1998. The slowing in the latter period reflects the effects of the economic turmoil in Asia. The updated measures reflect both the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions and, for some series, the introduction of modifications in the methods for compiling the series. The new source data, which are principally derived from the 1996 Annual Survey of Manufactures and the 1997 Survey of Plant Capacity, affect data for 1995 and thereafter. The modified methods affect data for 1992 onward. Growth in the output and capacity of hightechnology industries is now estimated to have been more rapid than previously shown. Outside of the high-technology industries, revisions to the output indexes for individual industries were largely offsetting and had little net effect on the overall IP index through 1997 (chart 1). NOTE. Other contributors to the revision and this article include the following: Ana Aizcorbe, William Cleveland, Carol Corrado, Maura Doyle, Norman Morin, and Dixon Tranum. I. The revisions to the industrial production data tor August through October 1998 and the new data for November from the Board's G.17 statistical release on "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." issued on December 16, 1998, have been incorporated in all the statistics and tables presented in this article. Production By Market Groups Among major market groups, the expansion of output was pervasive and substantial in 1996 and 1997, with strength concentrated in business equipment, durable consumer goods, and related materials; only the production of defense and space equipment declined in these years. The production of nondurable consumer products advanced relatively slowly; solid growth in the consumer chemical products industry was offset by declines in apparel production for 1995 through the present. In 1998, growth was slower in the production of consumer goods, business equipment other than information processing equipment, and both durable and nondurable materials. The output of information processing and related equipment continued to increase strongly, and the output of construction supplies accelerated after having risen slowly in 1997. The output of energy products and materials also picked up, on balance, a move reflecting the unusual weather patterns since last fall. The output of defense and space equipment edged up after having declined substantially for most of this decade. 21 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization Index. 1992 output = 100. ratio scale Percent of capacity . Revised .Earlier Capacity — 80 I I I M I I II I I I I II I I I I I I I [ M I I I I ] I I I 1 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 1 1987 1991 I 1995 1999 NOTE. The production indexes and utilization rates are seasonally adjusted. All the revised measures extend ihrough November 1998; ihe earlier measures extend through October 1998. By Industry Groups The revised figures continue to show that during the past two years growth among the broad industry groups was concentrated in durable manufacturing, which advanced 11.1 percent in 1997 before easing to a 4.2 percent annual rate in the first three quarters of 1998. The relatively rapid expansion in this sector has been supported over the years by sustained rapid increases in the output of computers, semiconductors and related electronic components, and communications equipment. According to the revised index, the annual rate of growth of production in these hightechnology industries averaged nearly 40 percent for 1994 through 1997, substantially higher than previously shown (table A.4). The growth of output of other manufacturing industries, which was revised little on balance for the 1994-97 period, advanced 3.0 percent over the four quarters of 1996 and 4.3 percent over 1997 before edging down in 1998. In 1998, the economic troubles in Asia have, either through more imports or fewer exports, reduced the domestic production of iron and steel, semiconductors, some chemicals, and other internationally traded goods. However, the revised series for civilian aircraft shows stronger growth in the first half of 1998 than shown previously. liminary results of the 1997 Survey of Plant Capacity conducted by the Bureau of the Census, which yielded utilization rates for manufacturing industries for the fourth quarter of 1997. As was the case with the IP index, the rate of growth of manufacturing capacity was revised upward for 1995 forward (table A.5). The revised figures show that the annual rate of growth jumped to 6.0 percent in 1995 and 6.4 percent in 1996. It has slowed a bit in the past two years; 1998 growth is estimated to have been 5.6 percent. The rapid growth and upward revisions were again concentrated in durable manufacturing, especially in the high-technology industries. The capacity increase in these industries peaked at 46.3 percent in 1996 and then decelerated to 34.8 percent by 1998. In contrast, capacity growth in the rest of manufacturing was approximately 3 percent in 1995 and 1996 and then declined to an estimated 2.6 percent by 1998. Capacity expansion in mining and utilities was considerably slower. In particular, the North American Electric Reliability Council reduced its estimate of generating capacity for the winter of 1997 and projected increases in capacity short of probable increases in demand. Moreover, the drop in world demand for crude oil and its low price have led to a sharp drop in work in domestic oil fields. Capacity Capacity Utilization The revised measures of capacity and utilization reflect the new IP indexes, updated estimates of manufacturing capital input, new information on physical capacity and utilization for selected industries provided mainly by trade associations, and pre- For 1997 and 1998, the upward revisions to manufacturing capacity were relatively smaller than the revisions to output; consequently, the rate of manufacturing capacity utilization was revised up 0.3 percentage point for the fourth quarter of 1997 and 0.6 percent- 22 Federal Reserve Bulletin ! ' January 1999 age point for the third quarter of 1998 (table A.6). The largest upward revision of utilization was for the transportation equipment industry. Utilization in manufacturing in the third quarter of 1998 was 80.2 percent, a level that is 0.9 percentage point less than the 1967-97 average, as the rates in both primary- and advanced-processing industries fell more than 2 percentage points over the first three quarters of 1998. In contrast to the general easing in manufacturing utilization rates, the rate rose further for petroleum products, to 96.5 percent. The low price of crude oil pushed refining activity toward capacity limits. The capacity utilization rate for mining for the third quarter of J998 was revised down 2.5 percentage points, leaving it more than a percentage point below its long-term average. Although the rate for gas utilities also was revised down, to a belowaverage level, the rate for electric utilities was revised upward to 97.7 percent, its highest level since 1970. Strong summer demand for air conditioning due to high temperatures forced some utilities to limit their supply of electricity to industrial companies. series, up from 264 at the time of the previous annual revision. Individual series were changed for electronic components, coal, aircraft, and lawn and garden equipment. The electronic components industry, SIC 367, was previously covered by two indexes, one for TV tubes and the second for semiconductors and other components. Now, four new indexes cover electronic components other than TV tubes: (1) semiconductors and related devices, SIC 3674; (2) printed circuit boards, SIC 3672; (3) other electronic components, SIC 3675-8 and part of 3679; and (4) printed circuit assemblies and loaded boards, part of SIC 3679. Development of the estimates of production of semiconductors and related devices is discussed below; the other three series are derived from monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics data on worker hours and productivity trends determined by annual data. The four series appear within the industry structure of the IP index in the subgroup electronic components, SIC 367; and within the market structure in equipment parts, a subgroup within durable goods materials, as shown in the following table: TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE ANNUAL REVISION Semiconductors and Related Electronic Components within the Market Structure The revision incorporates the updating of the comprehensive annual data and of the monthly source data used in the estimation of production, capacity, and utilization. More up-to-date results were obtained from the 1996 Annual Survey of Manufactures, the 1997 Survey of Plant Capacity, other annual industry reports, recent information on prices, and revised monthly source data on physical products and on labor and electricity inputs.2 Productivity relationships were revised on the basis of the differences between the new annual and monthly data and applied to the individual monthly source data to determine the final individual production indexes. Along with the individual production series and seasonal factors, the annual value-added weights used in aggregating the indexes to market and industry groups were also updated. Changes to Individual Production Series The industry and market structures of the index of industrial production now comprise 267 individual 2. Information about the sources of monthly data used to calculate the indexes can be found in "Table I: Industry structure of industrial production: Classification, value-added weights, and description of series" on the Board's World Wide Web site (hup:// www.federalreserve.gov/releases/gl7/About.htm). Series Materials Durable goods materials Equipment parts Computer and other board assemblies and parts Printed circuit assemblies and loaded boards (SIC 3679pl) Semiconductors, printed circuit boards, and other electronic components Printed circuit boards (SIC 3672) Semiconductors and related devices (SIC 3674) ... Other electronic components (SIC 3675-8,9pt) 1997 value added share 40.2 24.0 9.2 .9 .5 3.7 .3 2.8 .6 The new production measure for semiconductors and related devices (SIC 3674) attempts to capture advances in the capability of these devices as well as changes in volumes produced by aggregating detailed information on physical quantities and average unit values for about 300 distinct devices.3 A chained Fisher quantity index of semiconductor output is derived by dividing an estimate of nominal domestic production by a chained Fisher price index. Nominal domestic production is estimated using monthly data from the World Semiconductor Trade 3. The data for the individual devices are aggregated using Fisher aggregation methods. See Carol Corrado, Charles Gilbert, and Richard Raddock, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Historical Revision and Recent Developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92, for a general description of the methodology. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision Statistics monthly (WSTS) issued by the Semiconductor Industries Association and estimates of the U.S. share of world shipments based on data from the Census Bureau's annual Current Industrial Reports for semiconductors. Data on physical quantities and average unit values for the different semiconductor devices are obtained from several sources and used to construct price indexes for about a dozen categories of chips. Data on metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) microprocessors (MPUs) come from MicroDesign Resources; data on MOS memories and selected MOS logic chips other than MPUs come from Dataquest; and data on other devices come from the WSTS. The price indexes computed from these data for MOS memories and MOS MPUs are quantitatively very similar to those published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the period 1992 through 1996, and to the new producer price indexes (PPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since January 1997.4 In contrast, the price indexes that are used in the industrial production system for non-MOS devices and MOS logic chips other than MPUs show steeper price declines than the corresponding PPI measures. Some minor products of SIC 3674 are not included in the semiconductor indicator described above. The nominal gross output data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) for the industry include all of the products made by the industry, so the price deflator constructed above is augmented by producer price indexes for the secondary products of the industry when computing the deflator for the nominal gross output data for the industry. The final industrial production estimate for semiconductors and related devices includes a correction to align the monthly output index to the deflated gross output data for the industry. Changes to individual series other than those in the electronic components subgroup include revised IP series for coal, completed commercial aircraft, and lawn and garden equipment. The coal series had been based directly on tonnage production. However, the quality of U.S. coal varies by region.5 For example, a 4. See Bruce T. Grimm, "Price Indexes for Selected Semiconductors, 1974-96," Survey of Current Business (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, February 1998); and Mike Holdway, "Changes in the PPI for Semiconductors Indexes," Producer Price Indexes: PPI Detail Report (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 1997). 5. See A. Denny Ellerman, Thomas M. Stoker, and Ernst R. Berndt, "Sources of Productivity Growth in the American Coal Industry, 1972-95" (paper prepared for a meeting of the Conference on Research on Income and Wealth, New Directions in Productivity Analysis, Washington, D.C., March 1998). 23 ton of coal from Appalachia provides more heat, expressed in British thermal units (Btu), than a ton of lignite coal from North Dakota, Texas, or Louisiana. The growth in coal production over the past decade or so has been concentrated in subbituminous coal, which is extracted by surface mining at low cost in Wyoming and western Montana and is relatively low in Btu content. Therefore, the revised index of coal production weights the tonnage produced in a region by the Btu content typical of a ton of coal mined in that region. Completed aircraft, SIC 3721, includes both commercial and military aircraft. The benchmark annual levels for this industry are gross output levels for the industry, derived from data from the ASM and from price deflators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These benchmark levels are split into military and civilian components on the basis of more detailed ASM product shipments. The goal of the revision for this industry was to make the IP indexes reflect actual aircraft operations. Previously the indexes were based on monthly production-worker hours and rested on productivity assumptions that were developed from historical trends. One of the difficulties with this approach was that the information on production-worker hours does Data Changes and Availability Data on production, capacity, and utilization are published monthly in the Board's G.I7 statistical release "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." As described in the accompanying article, the data for 1992 and after have been revised. This revision marks die introduction of one new market group: semiconductors, printed circuit boards, and other electronic components. Files containing all the historical data can be found 00 the Board's web site (http://www.federalreserve,gov) under "Statistics: Releases and historical data." For paid access to these files through the Department of Commerce's Economic Bulletin Board or web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA (1-202-482-1986). Diskettes containing either historical data (through 1985) or more recent date (1986 to those most recently published in the G. 17 statistical release) are available from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 (202-452-3245). A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. 24 Federal Reserve Bulletin LH January 1999 not distinguish hours used in the production of commercial aircraft from hours used in the production of military aircraft. Under the new procedure, the production measure for commercial aircraft approximately equals a forward-looking ten-month moving average of actual or future planned completions (deliveries plus the change in stock) of commercial aircraft by Boeing Corporation. The final IP index is also constructed so that its monthly changes are positively correlated with the monthly changes in production-worker hours. The estimates of military aircraft productivity were also improved, using annual information on planned production of military aircraft, including fighters, bombers, cargo planes, and AWACS planes, which were combined into an annual aggregate military aircraft production indicator using prices available on Department of Defense web sites. This indicator, combined with the estimate of commercial aircraft production, provides a good estimate of the overall production of complete aircraft through the current year. Finally, a physical product series for lawn and garden equipment, SIC 3524, was developed using data for production of lawn and garden tractors, mowers, rotary tillers, and snow throwers from Stark's Component Ledger. The data represent output for the three-month period from the third month of a given calendar quarter through the second month of the following quarter. Through 1992, the monthly indicator for this series remains production-worker hours. Weights The IP index is an annually weighted Fisher index.6 In the revision, the annual value-added weights for the aggregation of the IP indexes and the capacity utilization rates, which are derived from annual estimates of industry value added, were updated and extrapolated (table A.7). Data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures, together with revenue and expense data reported by the Department of Energy and the American Gas Association, provided information on industry value added for manufacturing and utilities through 1996; the latest value-added data for mining came from the Census of Mineral Industries for 1992. The weights are expressed as unit value added. Generally, the unit-value-added measures track broad changes in corresponding producer 6. The aggregation procedures are described in Corrado, Gilbert, and Raddock, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Historical Revision and Recent Developments." prices. The weights required for aggregating IP in the most recent period are (1) estimated from available data on producer prices through the most recent year and (2) extrapolated for the following year, given the persistence of many relative price trends. Revised Monthly Data The monthly physical product data that are used to measure the monthly movements of many IP indexes have been updated to capture data that became available after the closing of the regular four-month reporting window. For many individual IP indexes, monthly data on production-worker hours or sales of electric power to industry groups, in kilowatt-hours, along with estimates of trends in output per worker hour or kilowatt-hour, are used to indicate the monthly change in output. This revision incorporates the Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark of the employment data for March 1997. It also incorporates revised data on the sales of electricity to industries for 1992 onward. The monthly kilowatt-hour sales figures were benchmarked to data on the annual use of electric power reported in the Annual Survey of Manufactures through 1996. The incorporation of the new data resulted in an average upward revision in industrial use of electric power of 0.3 percentage point per year over the period 1994 through 1996 (table A.8). Seasonal factors for the electric power scries were reestimated using data through May I998.7 This revision also introduced an improvement in the techniques for adjusting monthly electric power data for systematic influences of the weather. Data on electric power use by establishments in fifty threedigit SIC industries are used as monthly indicators for production in forty-two component IP series. Unusually warm or cool temperatures appear at times to have caused the use of electricity to rise or fall independently of its use in production. Staff research indicated that the usual seasonal adjustment techniques did not adequately capture the influence of the weather on electric power usage by thirteen industries, which are used to infer production for almost 16 percent of the IP index. The revised IP index estimates for these thirteen industries incorporate electric power use series with the effects of unseasonable weather removed; the procedure uses data on national heating and cooling degree days to model weather effects. 7. Seasonal factors for worker hours were based on data through October 1998: factors for the monthly physical product series were based on data through June or later in the summer. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision Measurement 25 of Capacity Procedure for Estimating Capacity The revisions to capacity and utilization incorporate the revised production indexes, the preliminary results of the 1997 Survey of Plant Capacity, updated measures of 1997 and 1998 capacity in physical units for selected industries, and revised estimates of industry capital input. The 1997 Survey of Plant Capacity, which was conducted by the Bureau of the Census and partially funded by the Federal Reserve, returned to being conducted annually; from 1989 to 1996, results from the survey were received every two years. The Survey of Plant Capacity is the Federal Reserve's source of utilization rates for most manufacturing industries. The preliminary results of the 1997 survey, along with revisions to the 1996 survey, suggested that trends in manufacturing utilization rates were roughly in line with those previously estimated by the Federal Reserve for those years. However, dividing the industrial production indexes for high-technology industries, which were generally revised substantially upward, by the Census utilization rates yielded a noticeable upward revision of capacity in those industries. An estimate of capital input for an industry is typically the third major component, along with an IP index and a survey utilization rate, in the Federal Reserve's procedure for estimating capacity by industry (see box "Procedure for Estimating Capacity"). Revised BEA estimates of business investment and deflators by asset type through mid-1998 were incorporated with this revision. The effect of these new data on the overall manufacturing capital input measure was very small. The Federal Reserve's procedure for constructing individual capacity indexes involves several steps. First preliminary, implied end-of-the-year indexes of capacity are calculated by dividing a production index by a utilization rate obtained from a survey for that end-of-year period. These ratios, like the indexes of industrial production, are expressed as percentages of 1992 production; they give the general level and trend of the capacity estimates.' Once the preliminary implied capacity indexes are calculated, measures of physical capacity or of capital input are used to estimate and extrapolate the annual movements of the capacity indexes. For most manufacturing industries, physical measures of capacity are lacking; in these cases, the annual growth in the capacity estimates is related to the growth in an industry's capital input. The capital input measures are developed principally from investment data reported in the Annual Survey of Manufactures. 1. Each implied capacity index number is an estimate of a sustainable maximum level of output expressed as a percentage of actual output in 1992. Thus, if in the fourth quarter of 1992 the production index is 100 and a related utilization rate from a survey is 80 percent, then the implied capacity index is I00/.8, or 125. The capacity indexes capture the concept of sustainable practical capacity, which is defined as the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule after taking account of normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the machinery and equipment in place. The questions asked in both the broad Census Bureau survey and the narrower surveys of selected industries are generally consistent with this definition of capacity. The concept itself generally conforms to that of a full-input point on a production function, with the qualification that capacity represents a realistically sustainable maximum, rather than some higher unsustainable short-term maximum. See Carol Corrado and Joe Mattey, "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives^ vol. II (Winter 1997), pp. 151-67. In the absence of utilization rale information for an industry, which is the case for a few series in mining, trends through peaks in production are used to estimate capacity output for that industry. 26 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 APPENDIX A: SUMMARY TABLES BASED ON THE G.17 RELEASE, DECEMBER 16, 1998 A. 1. Revised data for industrial production, capacity, and utilization for total industry, 1987-98 Seasonally adjusted data except as noted Quarter Jan. Year Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dee. Annual avg.1 1 2 3 4 .6 .5 .5 4.2 3.2 -.6 -.6 2.0 -8.3 1.3 4.3 6.1 6.3 2.8 5.6 3.9 -AA 1.0 6.2 2.7 1.2 5.2 3.5 5.5 7.2 .9 7.1 3.6 -.1 -5.8 1.1 4.6 6.4 7.6 3.0 3.5 6.6 4.6 4.5 1.8 -.2 -2.0 3.1 Industrial production (percentage change) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 .. 1994 . 1995 1996 . 1997 1998 -.6 .1 .6 -.8 -.5 -.5 .5 -.8 .2 ,5 .2 . . .5 -.2 ,5 .0 1.2 .3 .6 5 .5 -.1 1.3 .7 -.1 .4 .0 .9 .4 .6 3. .4 .1 -.6 .9 .1 -.2 .5 -& .7 ,2 -.6 .3 .4 .8 .0 1.2 -.1 .7 .2 —2 .4 .4 .7 .4 .4 -.1 1.2 .6 ,5 .2 -.5 .7 .3 .9 .3 .4 .2 .5 .4 .7 .5 -.9 .1 .5 .4 .2 .1 -.3 -.4 .5 1.1 .5 .6 1.4 .6 .7 -1.0 .0 .8 2 .3 -.3 .2 .7 -.1 -.1 -.4 -.2 .1 1.0 .4 1.0 .2 .3 .1 .5 -.4 1.4 .3 -.5 -.6 — 1 .6 .4 .7 .0 ,1 .6 .2 .3 .3 6.6 1.6 6.7 3.1 .5 .6 1.5 6.1 1.5 7.1 1.3 9.6 6.0 2.8 95.3 98.8 98.6 97.7 98.1 101.7 104.8 111.6 115.7 121,9 129.9 131.8 95.9 99.3 99.0 97.2 97.5 101.8 105.7 112.9 115.8 122.3 130.3 91.0 96.1 99.6 99.1 95.9 98.3 102.6 106.5 113.5 116.5 123.7 130.4 92.5 96.9 99.7 99.2 96.2 99.8 103.0 108.3 113.8 119.2 125.6 131.3 93.8 97.8 98.6 99.5 97.7 100.4 103.3 109.7 114.8 120.8 127.8 131.6 95.4 98.7 98.6 98.0 98.0 101.5 104.9 111.7 115.7 121.8 129.8 93.2 97.4 99.1 98.9 97.0 100.0 103.5 109.1 114.4 119.5 126.8 115.1 116.5 118.8 121.0 123.0 125.5 128.3 133.0 140.1 148.1 155.7 163.5 1152 116.7 119.0 121.2 123.2 125.7 128.6 133.4 140.8 148.8 156.3 114.1 115.5 J17.0 119.3 121.6 123.6 126.2 129.3 134.5 142.1 150.1 157.6 114.4 115.8 117.6 119.9 122.1 124.2 1265 130.5 136.4 144.1 152.0 159.6 114.7 116.2 118.2 120.4 122.6 124.9 127.6 131.7 138.2 146.1 153.8 161.5 115.1 116.5 118.8 121.0 123.0 125.5 128.3 133.0 140.1 148.1 155.7 114.6 116.0 117.9 120.2 122.3 124.5 127.2 131.1 137.3 145.1 152.9 82.8 84.8 83.0 80.8 79.8 81.0 81.7 83.9 82.6 82.3 83.4 80.6 83.2 85.1 83.2 80.2 79,2 81.0 82.2 84.6 82.3 82.2 83.4 79.8 83.3 85.1 83.0 78.9 79.5 81.3 82.4 84.3 82.0 82.5 82.7 80.8 83.7 84.8 82.8 78.8 80.3 81.2 83.0 83.5 82.7 82.6 82.3 81.7 84.2 83.4 82.6 79.7 80.4 81.0 83.3 83.1 82.7 83.1 81.5 82.9 84.7 83.0 81.0 79.6 80.9 81.8 84.0 82.6 82.2 83.4 81.3 84.0 84.1 82.3 79.3 80.3 81.3 83.2 83.4 82.4 82.9 .8 .4 -1.3 -.1 .5 .5 .8 .2 .6 .5 _3 .1 .8 1.1 .0 .3 3.8 3.5 5.4 4.9 4.5 6.0 Industrial production (index) I9g7 1988 .. 1989 , 1990 1991 . » 1992 1993 1994 . . . . 1995 1996... . 1997 1998 90.2 959 99.8 98.6 96.7 97.7 102.3 105.9 113.4 115.5 123.0 130.3 91.2 96.2 99.0 99.1 95.9 98.2 102.7 106.4 113.4 117.0 123.9 130.2 91.6 96.3 10O.O 99.6 95.0 98.9 102,9 107.2 113.6 116.8 124.4 130.7 92,0 96.8 100,2 99.0 95.4 99.6 103,3 107.6 113.4 118.2 125-1 131.3 92.4 96.9 99.6 99.4 96.1 99.9 102.7 108.4 113.8 119.2 125.5 131.9 93.2 97.0 99.4 99.3 97.2 99.7 103.0 108.9 114.3 120.0 126.1 130.6 93.8 98.1 98.8 99.5 97.4 100.2 102.8 109.8 115.1 120.9 127.8 132.4 93.7 97.6 98.4 99.3 97.3 100.5 103.2 109.3 113.9 120.3 127.0 130.5 93.7 97.8 98.6 99.6 98.4 100.6 103.9 110.0 115.4 121.1 128.5 131.9 95.0 98.0 98.2 99.1 98.3 101.2 104.3 110.8 115.5 121.2 129.3 132.2 Capacity (index) 1987 . . . . 1988 ,1989 . . . 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 . . . . 1996 1997 1998 114.0 115.3 116.8 119.2 121.4 123.4 125.9 128.9 133.9 141.4 149.4 157.0 114.1 115.5 117.0 119.3 121.6 123.6 126.2 129.3 134.5 142.1 150.1 157.6 114.2 115.6 117.2 119,5 121.7 123.8 126.4 129.7 135,1 142.8 150.7 15&3 114.3 115.7 117.4 119.7 121.9 124.0 126.6 130.1 135.7 143.4 151.3 158.9 114.4 115.8 117.6 119,9 122.1 124.2 126.9 130.5 136.4 144.1 152,0 159.6 114.5 115.9 117.8 120.1 122.2 124.5 127.1 1305 137.0 144.8 152.6 160.3 114.6 116.0 118.0 120.2 122.4 124.7 127.4 131.3 137.6 145.5 153.2 160.9 114.7 116.2 118.2 120.4 122.6 124.9 127.6 131.7 138.2 146.1 153.8 161.5 114.9 116.3 118.4 120.6 122.7 125.1 127.8 132.1 138.8 146.8 154.4 162.2 115.0 116.4 118.6 120.8 122.9 125.3 128.1 132,6 139.5 147.4 155.0 162.8 Utilization (level, percent) 1987 . . 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 . 1994 1995 . .. 1996 . 1997 1998 79.1 83.2 85.4 82.7 79.6 79.2 81.2 82.1 84.7 SJ.7 82.3 83.0 80.0 83.4 84.6 83.0 78,9 79.5 81.4 82,3 84.3 82.4 82.6 82.6 80.2 83.3 85.3 83.3 78.1 79.9 81.4 82.6 84.1 81.8 82.5 82,6 80.5 83.7 85.3 82.7 78.2 80.3 8J.5 82.7 83.5 82.4 82.7 82.6 80.7 83.7 84.7 82.9 78.7 80.4 SI.O 83.1 83.4 82.7 82.6 82.6 81.4 83.6 84.4 82.7 79.6 80.1 81.0 83.2 83.4 82.9 82.6 81.5 81.8 84.1 83.4 82.6 79.5 80.6 81.0 83.2 82.7 82.7 82.9 81.1 NOTE. Monthly percentage change figures show change from the previous month; quarterly figures show the change from (he previous quarter at a compound annual rate of growth. Production and capacity indexes are expressed as percentages of output in 1992. 81.8 84.5 83.6 82.6 79.5 80.2 80.6 83.4 83.3 82.8 83.1 82.0 81.6 84.1 83.3 82.6 80.2 80.4 81.3 83.3 83.1 82.5 83.2 81.3 82.6 84.2 82.8 82.0 80.0 80.8 81.4 83.5 82.8 82.2 83.4 81.2 In this and subsequent tables, data for September 1998 onward are subject to revision in future monthly G.17 statistical releases. 1. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from indexes that are not seasonally adjusted. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision A.2. 27 Revised data for industrial production, capacity, and utilization for manufacturing industries, 1987-9 Seasonally adjusted data except as noted Quarter Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual avg.1 1 2 3 4 .6 .6 .1 -.6 -.5 -.1 9 I.I .1 .4 .3 5.0 2.3 4.3 2.9 -9.7 2,7 4.9 6.3 6.7 2.1 72 2.4 7.0 4.1 -.7 -.1 1,2 6.8 2 1 8.8 1.1 10.6 6.6 2.5 5.5 3.7 -4.5 .8 7.8 3.4 .5 5.8 2.9 7.0 7.7 .4 7.6 5.2 -1.4 -6.3 1.7 4.0 69 9.2 3.8 3.9 7.5 -2.4 4.0 37 6.0 5.4 4,7 6.8 95 6 99.4 98 3 96.6 97.1 101 7 106.0 114.3 1173 124.7 133.7 90.6 95.6 99 8 98.8 95.0 98.1 102.8 106.8 115 0 117.8 126.2 133.8 92 1 96.6 99 6 98.8 95.2 99.7 103.3 109.1 115.3 120.8 128.3 134.7 93.4 97.5 98 5 99.0 97.0 100.6 103.5 110.7 116 1 122.9 130.7 134.8 95 1 98.7 98 1 97.4 97.5 101.6 105.2 113.1 117.2 124.1 133.1 92.8 97.1 99 0 98.5 96.2 1O0.O 103.7 109.9 115.9 121.4 129.7 114.9 116.6 1195 122.0 124.2 126.9 130.1 135.2 143.4 152.5 161 3 170.3 115.0 116.8 119.7 122.2 124,3 127,1 130.3 135.7 144.2 153.3 1621 113.4 115.3 117.3 120.1 122.6 124.8 127.6 131.1 137.0 145.7 154 8 163.5 113.9 115.7 118.0 120.7 123.1 125.5 128.4 132.5 139.1 148.0 1570 165.8 114.4 116.1 118.7 121.3 123.7 126.2 129,3 133.8 141.2 150.3 159 1 168.1 114.9 116.6 119.5 122.0 i24.2 126.9 130.1 135.2 143.4 152.5 1613 114,1 115.9 118.4 121.0 123.4 125.8 128.8 133.2 140.2 149.1 158 1 82.8 84.8 82.2 79.7 78.6 80.2 80.8 83.6 81.7 81.4 82.6 79.8 83.1 85.1 82,1 79.0 78.1 80.0 81.4 84.2 81.3 81.3 82.5 79.9 83.0 85.1 82.3 77.5 78.6 80.5 81.5 83.9 80.9 81.6 81.8 80.9 83.5 84.4 81.9 77.3 79.5 80.4 82.4 82.9 SI.6 81.7 81.2 81.6 83.9 82.9 81.6 78.5 79.7 80.0 82.7 82.2 81.8 82.1 80.2 82.8 84.7 82.1 79.9 78.5 80.1 80.9 83.6 81.7 81.3 82.5 81.3 83.8 83.6 81.4 77.9 79.5 80.5 82.5 82.7 81.4 82.0 Industrial production (percentage change) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ........ .. . ... . . . -.8 -.2 .9 -.2 -.9 .3 .9 .1 .6 -.3 .5 1.6 .4 -1.2 .9 -.7 .7 2 .6 -.2 1.3 .9 -.1 .2 -.1 .8 .3 -1.1 .8 .2 .9 -.3 .5 .3 .5 1.0 .1 -.8 .3 .6 6 .7 -.1 1.4 .6 .6 .3 -.1 -.7 .4 .7 .4 -.4 .8 .i 1.0 3 .3 1.0 .0 .0 -I 1.4 .0 0 .2 .5 .8 .7 -1.2 .7 .7 -1.1 .0 .2 .7 .2 .5 -.5 .5 7 -.1 -.2 .3 3 .3 .2 -.2 -5 .6 .9 .5 8 1.6 .1 2 -.3 -.1 I.I .3 1 2 .3 .7 2 4 -.4 1.3 .2 -.6 -.6 -.1 .5 4 .8 .1 .0 6 .6 .•> .9 .4 -1.3 -.2 .6 5 .9 .1 ,7 .8 .0 5.3 4.7 1.9 Industrial production (index) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 . . 1995 , . 1996 1997 1998 89.6 95.4 100.3 98.1 95.8 97.4 102.6 106.1 115.0 116.9 125.3 133.8 91.0 95.8 99.1 99.0 95.1 98.1 102.8 106.7 114.8 118.4 126.4 133,7 91.2 95.7 99.9 99.3 94.1 98.9 103.0 107.6 115.1 118.1 127.0 134.1 91 6 96.7 100.0 98.6 94.4 99.5 103.6 108.4 1150 119.7 127.7 134.9 91 9 96.6 99 4 99.0 95.0 99.9 103.2 109.3 115.1 120.9 128.1 135.4 92 8 96.6 994 98.9 96.3 99.9 103.2 109.5 1157 121.8 129.0 133.7 93 4 93.3 97.3 97.5 98 3 98 7 98.8 99.1 96.6 96,8 100 6 100 4 103.4 102.9 110.1 110.7 115 1 1162 122.4 123.0 129.8 130.8 133.6 135.7 93 4 97.7 98 4 99.0 97.8 100.7 104,1 III.l 117.0 123.3 131.4 135.2 94 6 97.9 97 8 98.4 97.8 101.2 104.5 112.0 117 1 123.3 132.2 136.0 95 1 98.9 9 8 •? 97.2 97.6 101 8 105.1 U3.0 117 2 124.2 133.3 135.9 Capacity (index) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 . 113.2 115.2 1170 119.9 122.4 124.5 127.4 130.7 136.3 . . 144.9 154.1 162.8 113.4 115.3 117 3 120.1 122.6 124.8 127.6 131.1 137.0 145.7 154.8 163.5 113.6 115.4 117 5 120.3 122.8 125.0 127.9 131.6 137.7 146.4 155.5 164.3 113.8 115.6 117 8 120.5 123.0 125.2 128.2 132.0 138.4 147.2 156.2 165.1 113.9 115.7 1180 120.7 123.1 125.5 128.4 132.5 139.1 148.0 157 0 165.8 114.1 115.8 1183 120.9 123.3 125.7 128.7 132.9 139.8 148.8 157 8 166.6 114.2 116.0 1185 121.1 123.5 125.9 129.0 133.4 140.5 149.5 1584 167.3 114.4 116.1 1187 121.3 123.7 126.2 129.3 133.8 141.2 150.3 159 1 168.1 114.6 116.3 119.0 121.5 123.8 126.4 129.5 134.3 141.9 151.0 159 9 168.8 114.7 116.5 1192 121,7 124.0 126.6 129.8 134.8 142.6 151.8 160 6 169.5 Utilization (level, pereeni) 1987 , 1988 1989 . 1990 , 1991 1992 .. 1993 1994 . . . 1995 1996 . . . ., 1997 1998 79.1 82.9 85.7 81.8 78.2 78.2 80.5 81.2 84.4 80.7 81.3 82.2 80.2 83.1 84.5 82.5 77.5 78.6 80.6 81.4 83.8 81 3 81.7 81.8 80.3 82.9 85.0 82,6 76.6 79.1 80.5 81.8 83.6 80.6 81.7 81.6 NOTE. See general note to table A. I. 80 6 83.7 85.0 81.8 76.8 79.4 80.8 82.2 83.1 81 3 81.7 81.7 80.7 83.5 84.2 82.0 77.1 79.6 80.4 82.5 82.8 81.7 81.6 81.6 81.4 83.4 84.1 81.8 78.1 79.5 80.1 82.4 82.7 81 9 81.7 80.2 81.8 83.8 83.0 81.6 78.2 79.9 80.1 82.6 81.9 81 9 81.9 79.8 81.5 84.0 83.1 81.7 78.2 79.6 79.6 82.8 82.3 81.8 82.2 80.7 81.5 84.0 82.7 81.5 79.0 79.7 80.4 82.7 82.4 81 6 82.2 80.1 82.5 84.1 82.1 80.9 78.9 79.9 80.5 83.1 82.1 81.2 82.3 80.2 1. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from indexes that are not seasonally adjusted. 28 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 A3. Rates of growth in industrial production, by major market group, 1994-98 Difference between growth rates: revised less earlier (percentage points) Revised growth rate (percent) Market group 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1994 6.5 3.5 5.3 6.6 1.8 .0 Products, total Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Autos and trucks Autos Trucks Auto parts and allied goods Other durable goods Appliances and electronics Appliances and air conditioning .. Home electronics Carpeting and furniture Miscellaneous Nondurable Nonenergy , Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy products Fuels Utilities 4.7 4.8 4.3 6.5 5.4 5.2 5.8 3.0 5.6 7.4 14.4 2.7 28.1 5.8 3.5 3.7 4.9 6.6 4J 5.3 -.5 -4.2 -2.2 -5.1 2.1 2-6 1.3 .3 -2.4 -4.7 -7.3 1.3 1.8 2.5 9.0 -2.0 20.1 -3.0 1.1 1.6 .9 -.3 -3.5 5.1 2.1 6.3 1.4 8.6 4.2 4.4 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.5 -3.8 8.1 1.0 2.6 8.9 -.2 18.3 3.0 -1.7 2.2 2.1 1.4 -.2 4.9 1.9 2.3 3.5 1.8 5.0 5.6 2.7 6.5 9.3 113 3.4 15.7 4.7 4.3 11.8 -.5 24.2 2.4 .9 1.7 1.7 1.3 -2.0 2.9 3.8 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.4 2.3 -.5 .9 -6.5 -14.0 -7.0 -17.0 6.9 7.0 17.5 9.5 25.3 3.1 3.0 -.9 -1.9 -1.0 -3.7 -1.9 -3.9 6.5 1.7 .1 .2 -.1 -.3 -.6 -1.0 -.8 -1.4 Equipment, total Business equipment Information processing and related — Computer and office Industrial Transit . . . , Autos and trucks Other Defense and space equipment Oil and gas well drilling Manufactured homes 5.8 9.4 13.4 29.5 10.0 1.5 8.4 5.9 -6.7 -6.7 8.6 4.6 7.0 14.9 44.7 8.5 -9.4 -6.0 1.9 -7.2 2.4 8.7 8.0 9.8 16.5 41.9 1.2 14.3 -3.0 5.5 -1.0 7.6 -.7 10.4 13.1 16.2 43.7 5.2 22.8 12.3 10.4 -3.9 9.4 -.7 6.5 9.0 15.4 58.1 3.0 9.7 -8.3 .9 .5 -19.8 6.7 .7 .8 -.1 -.3 4.3 7.2 2.5 .5 -.3 1.1 3.8 5.9 2.4 3.2 2.4 3.8 9J 13.5 10.3 21.4 5.7 11.0 3.6 26.3 6.9 10.2 1.2 22.7 53.2 8.9 6.9 5.9 8.9 5.1 5.7 5.6 2.0 3.3 -.3 65.4 13 1.6 -2.5 -7.2 -2.8 -.8 -3.0 .6 .3 1.1 Special aggregates Total excluding: Computers and office equipment. 6.1 Business equipment excluding: Computers and office equipment. 7.7 Tbtal index Intermediate products . . . Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Semiconductors, printed circuit boards, and other electrical components . . . Other Basic metals Nondurable , Textile Paper Chemical Other Energy Primary Convened fuel 1996 1997 1998 .3 .5 -.1 .5 .6 1.2 -.3 -.2 -.3 .4 4.1 .4 5.2 -.1 -1.9 -.3 1.3 1.6 .4 1.5 -.8 -1.0 -.3 -.2 -.3 3.6 .4 -1.4 1.0 2,3 5,2 .1 -,1 -A .9 -.5 1.2 2.2 -1.5 4.1 1.1 .3 .3 -.4 -.3 -.4 .3 .4 -.2 -.4 -.3 -.1 -.3 .1 ^1.1 4.7 -1.6 .0 -.4 -.4 -.7 1.9 -.2 -1.6 .0 .1 -.2 A .9 .0 2 —3 -2J2 1.0 -2.1 3.0 -2.4 -4.2 .1 .2 -.4 3.9 .2 -.5 -.4 .2 -.8 4.1 5.7 -.2 .9 .3 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 .8 3.3 1.6 .1 1.5 .4 2.0 1.2 1.5 4.7 4.5 1.2 -4.9 -2.9 .7 .5 .6 .2 1.6 2.3 4.0 9.2 -.5 5.2 3.8 .9 -1.3 .2 .5 ,1 3.3 -.2 -2,0 -5.0 2.6 4.8 1.3 -.1 .0 -.2 .0 .2 -.2 .0 .1 .0 -.4 .2 -.8 .4 -1.3 1.3 9.0 13.3 7.3 26.4 .9 2.0 -4.8 10.0 -.3 -.4 .2 -1.3 .3 .6 1.3 2.2 3.5 f.t 7.8 1.7 2.1 .4 4.8 .7 .0 1.7 49.4 3.9 3.9 3.6 2.7 4.3 5.1 .5 .8 -.7 3.6 53.3 5.0 4.3 4.5 3.2 4.7 5.0 3.8 .3 .2 .5 20.7 -2.1 -4.7 -2.6 -5.2 -1.4 -4.0 .4 1.9 1.9 1.9 n.a. -.1 _2 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.4 -.2 -.1 .0 -.1 n.a. .2 .2 -.1 .1 1.1 -.6 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.1 n.a. .8 1.3 -.1 1.8 1.4 -1.0 —1 .3 .3 .6 n.a. .4 -A 2.9 4.6 5.9 .7 .2 3.8 6.8 10.5 4.6 1.5 NOTE. Growth rates are calculated as the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted index from (he fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter 1995 .0 -.1 .9 -.6 2.9 .3 -.8 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 .1 -.1 -.1 .1 -.1 -.5 .5 -.3 -.6 -1.2 1.0 -.4 .0 -.4 3.4 4.3 6.2 10.4 .1 73 1.5 1.7 .0 -.8 -.2 -1.8 n.a. .0 -.7 -.5 5 "~.3 -1.5 1.1 -.9 -1.4 .0 .9 .6 .5 I.I 1.5 3.0 1.0 -.7 of the year specified. For 1998, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the third quarter of 1998 and annualized. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision A.4. 29 Rates ut'prowtli in industrial production, hy industry group, 1904 9S Series Difference between growth rates: revised less earlier (percentage points) Revised growth rate (percent) SIC code1 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1994 1995 1996 J997 1998 Total index 6.5 3.5 5.3 6.6 1.8 .0 .3 1.1 Manufacturing. 7.5 3.6 5.9 7.3 1.8 .0 .3 1.2 6.5 8.0 -.3 5.5 4.1 6.7 3.9 8.8 -.9 3.0 -.1 .0 .1 .4 .6 1.5 .4 1.2 -.3 1.7 9.9 5.3 5.6 5.2 6.9 .8 -.8 2.7 8.6 1.8 4.7 6.3 11.1 3.1 3.3 2.6 4.2 3.7 1.4 2.5 .0 .2 .3 -.3 .8 -.4 -1.2 1.2 2.1 -1.0 -26 2.5 1.6 1.0 -.3 -2.0 1.8 -I.I 3.8 2.5 -.2 -.3 .7 4.9 5.0 7.3 4.9 4.5 13.4 43.6 24.2 -6.4 -9.6 -2.6 -2.5 -.3 14.8 55.9 9.2 -.2 -.1 .0 -.3 -.1 .0 .4 -1.8 .2 .6 .0 -.3 .0 1.6 3.7 .2 .9 .9 2.1 6.4 9.6 -.7 -.7 .0 -.6 .7 2.1 7.2 5.7 -1.1 -l.l .0 \.2 14.1 41.6 25.9 4.6 3.6 -1.7 5.9 4.1 9.8 42.9 22.2 I.I 1.3 .0 333-«.9 34 35 357 36 8.7 7.7 6.2 10.1 8.9 15.3 30.8 25.4 3672-9 48.8 58.0 44.6 48.6 18.0 -6.1 -1.3 19.1 8.8 37 371 371 pi 2.1 8.9 4.2 -4.2 -.6 -5.1 4.9 -1.4 1.9 13.1 12.8 10.9 -12.9 1.1 -1.0 1.0 1.0 -.6 -.6 ,0 .9 .9 .9 1.3 2.1 .0 -1.1 372-6,9 38 39 -6.7 1.9 3.8 -9.7 4.2 2.5 15.3 3.0 2.7 13.4 3.6 1.4 9.9 1.3 -1.6 .4 1.3 -.2 1.1 2.3 -.7 -1.7 -1.2 -2.5 .8 .3 -3.4 5.1 ,7 20 21 22 23 26 4.8 2.3 43.6 5.9 6.4 4.5 -.3 .5 -4A -4.6 -3.6 -2.5 2.6 1.1 -.1 1.9 -.9 3.0 26 1.9 —R -.1 -.1 .0 .0 -.2 -.2 -.2 -I.I .8 .6 .9 .4 .1 -.6 -2.4 1.8 2.5 .7 .0 .0 -2.7 -.5 -.1 1.1 -.1 .2 -3.8 .8 -2.0 4.2 -1.3 -.4 -5.3 -1.6 -4.0 -.9 27 28 29 30 31 1.1 4.6 -.8 9.6 -8.4 1.6 .7 .2 -5.6 1.9 4.9 3.7 4.0 1.3 3.6 3.1 2.0 4.3 -8.7 -2.2 -2.5 3.0 2.3 -8.3 -.1 -.1 .1 .0 .5 -.2 -.5 .2 .2 5.4 3 -.5 .4 .7 5.3 -.3 .2 -.2 .4 -1.5 2.7 -1.2 -3.0 -.1 2.0 10 12 13 14 .8 -3.2 8.9 -1.2 6.7 -.9 4.6 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 2.0 4.6 4.3 1.0 4.8 2.1 4.4 2.2 -2.7 -6.1 5.9 -5.1 2.3 -.1 -.2 _2 !l -.2 -.1 .1 -1.3 .1 .0 .4 1.2 1.8 .1 -.5 .0 1.7 -2.5 -.1 2.8 -2.5 .0 3.2 -3.5 -7.7 49l.493pt 492,493pl -.4 1.7 -8.0 6.3 5.2 10.8 1.1 1.0 1.8 -1.3 6.4 7.1 2.9 -.1 .0 -.3 -.1 -.1 .0 -.3 .0 -1.3 -.5 -.3 -2.1 1.9 1.0 4.9 36.6 42.0 36.7 38.5 25.1 -2.6 1.4 13.8 7.9 4.8 3.0 4.3 -.5 6.4 6.9 2.5 -.1 .3 1.3 1.0 1.1 Primary processing .. Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel Raw steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment . Computer and office equipment ... Electrical machinery Semiconductors and related electronic components Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts Autos and light trucks Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment .. Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufacturing . Foods Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastic products Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction ... Stone and earth minerals , 24 25 32 33 331,2 331pt sis 7!s -1.3 -9.2 1.0 4.0 5.6 1.6 3.4 Utilities ... Electric . Gas .... Special aggregates Computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors2 Manufacturing excluding computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors- 5.4 Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts 7.4 3.9 NOTE. Growth rales are calculated as the percentage change in ihe seasonally adjusted index from Ihe fourth quarter of the previous year to the founh quarter of the year specified. For 1998. the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1997 lo the third quarter of 1998 and annualized. Primary-processing manufacturing includes textile mill products; paper and products; industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers; petroleum products; rubber and plastics products; lumber and products; primary metals; fabricated metals; and stone, clay, and glass products. Advanced-processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and 1.9 2.6 publishing, chemical products and other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment, electrical machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures. 1. Standard Industrial Classification; see Executive Office of Ihe President, Office of Management and Budget, Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1987 (U.S. Government Priming Office. 1987). 2. Semiconductors include related electronic components, pt Part of classification. 30 A.5. Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Kak-s n! g r o w t h m C:\\Kicily. b\ imliivtiy I'J'U '),S Difference between growlh rates: Revised growlh rate Industry g r o u p SIC code1 revised less earlier (percent) 1994 1996 1995 (percentage points) 1997 1998- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I998 2 .6 Total index 3.6 5.4 5.7 5.1 5.0 — - 1 .5 1.2 .4 Manufacturing . 4.0 6.0 6.4 5.8 5.6 — I .5 1.2 .5 2.4 4.8 3.3 7.4 3.8 7.4 3.9 6.4 3.0 .1 .4 .5 1.5 .6 -> ' ' 24 25 32 5,8 3.1 2,0 -.1 9,5 3.0 2.5 5.7 9.7 3.9 5.9 4.9 8.6 4.2 5.1 2.9 7,9 2.9 1.9 .6 -.1 2 -.5 -.9 33 331,2 331 pi 333-6,9 34 35 357 36 3.0 2.8 .9 3.2 3.0 9.2 21.7 16.3 2.7 1.9 3.1 3.4 3.9 5.8 2.8 6,5 3.4 5,1 6.8 1.4 4.3 .6 2 .0 .3 11.5 34.7 28.8 3.6 5.0 2.8 2.0 5.5 13.0 46.1 30.3 12.1 43,2 23.6 14.6 59.4 18,4 .0 1.3 ,4 .9 -.2 -2.0 .0 ,0 1,3 .7 3672-9 31.6 58.7 56.6 46,7 33,4 -9.6 37 371 37lpt 2.7 5.5 3.7 4.3 8.4 4.5 2.5 3.9 -.5 2.0 3.2 .8 2.1 2.5 2.7 -1.5 -1.5 372-^,9 38 39 -.6 1.6 1.5 —4 ,5 2 1.3 1.4 2.4 .5 1.5 1,9 1,9 -.4 20 22 23 26 1.9 1.7 3.4 1.3 1,7 2.3 2.0 22 .7 2,9 2,0 1.2 4.6 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 -.1 -.5 -.3 -1.2 27 28 29 30 31 .6 2.5 1.9 4.7 -1.5 .7 2.8 -.2 4.4 3.4 .3 .8 4.9 3.5 .1 2.7 1.3 5.1 .9 10 12 13 14 -1.5 .3.3 -.4 ,7 .6 .4 1.6 1.7 .3 2.4 -1.0 1.2 1.0 .4 1.7 "> i Primary processing .. Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel Raw steel Nonferrous melals Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Computer and office equipment .. Electrical machinery Semiconductors and related electronic components Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and pans Autos and light trucks Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufacturing Foods Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction .. Stone and earth minerals Utilities ... Electric . Gas . . . . 49l'.3pl 49? 3pt Special aggregate.* Computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors' Manufacturing excluding computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors3 NOTE. See general note to table A.4. 1. Standard Industrial Classification; see table A.4, note I. 2. Through the fourth quarter of 1998. .3.5 5.2 2.6 1.7 2.1 2 2 .1 1.9 6.6 ,9 —7 3'o .6 .3 1.4 -.6 -2.7 2.9 .0 .7 .0 -.8 ,8 1.7 6.2 11.0 -.4 .1 .0 -.8 1.5 .4 2.2 4.4 -1.5 -.1 1.2 -3.1 -.3 4.1 17.8 ,6 2.7 24.8 9.9 -1.7 .5 .3 ,1 -.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 -1,5 -1.6 -1.8 ,2 -I.I 1.3 -.6 -1.3 -1.6 -.5 -1.4 -1.3 -.9 -1.6 _2 "1 -n -5 ,1 .1 .1 .4 .5 -2 -L2 2.7 1.8 .6 .8 .9 -.1 .0 .9 .0 .0 .0 -.6 5.9 -.6 -.1 .5 .5 5.9 -.7 -.6 -.4 .9 -.6 2.2 2 -L9 1.5 4.5 .1 2 7 .9 .8 2.2 -.1 -.7 -1.4 3.4 3..5 -1.4 .9 2,2 .3 3.1 1.5 2.9 .9 .8 1.7 1.7 „ 2 3.5 1.0 4.4 .4 4.0 -.1 .0 -.8 .0 .0 .3 -.1 1.9 .7 .6 1.5 -.1 .5 1.9 1.9 2.1 23.2 41.0 46.3 37.4 34.8 -4,2 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.4 .6 .2 2 -.8 — 1 —2 -3.3 2.2 -.5 .1 1.6 I.I -.8 -.5 2.5 I.I 4.8 -.4 3.5 .0 .3 .7 .0 .0 .7 _ 1 .9 _ ,9 .0 -.1 -.3 -4 •7 .0 .0 .1 .8 .4 ~ 1 .5 7 -I.I -1.5 .0 .4 .3 .0 3.2 16.2 7.0 3. Semiconductors include related electronic components, pi Part of classification. .0 _ 7 —4 -.1 -.1 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision A.6. 31 Capacity utilization rates, by industry group, 1967-9 Item SIC code1 Total index Difference between rates: revised less earlier (percentage points) Revised rate (percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted) 1967-97 avg. 1988-89 high 1990-91 low 199&Q4 1997-Q4 I998:Q3 I99&Q4 82.1 85.4 78.1 82.2 83.4 81.5 _ I .3 I997-Q4 I998:Q3 .2 81.1 85.7 76.6 81.3 82.5 80.2 -.1 82.3 80.5 88.9 84.2 77.7 76.1 85.4 79.6 853 81.4 82.8 793 -.5 .2 -.7 1.0 -.9 1.4 24 25 32 79.4 82,5 81.4 78,2 84.6 93.6 86.6 83.5 73.1 75.5 72.5 69.7 80.2 82.1 79.2 80.9 82.1 81.3 77.9 80.7 79.9 81.7 77.6 81.7 -a .5 .1 -2.1 -1.4 1.4 -1.4 .4 1.7 33 331,2 331m 333-6,9 34 35 357 36 81.1 81.1 80.9 8U 78.0 81.3 81.2 81.1 92.7 95.2 92.7 993 82.0 85.4 86.9 84.0 73.7 71.8 71.5 74.2 7J.9 723 66.9 75.0 90.7 90.9 88.8 90.5 80.3 84.4 83.3 813 92.0 91.8 90.0 92.3 78.8 85.4 83.5 81.7 85,4 .810 84.Q 89.S 76.1 $5.6 82.5 76.6 -.3 .0 .1 -.9 -.1 -.7 -.6 .7 -.1 1.0 -1.0 .6 3672-9 80.0 81.1 75.6 82.7 83.8 76.0 37 371 371pt 75.9 76.8 85.8 89.1 92.3 68.5 55.9 533 72.2 74.4 79.6 80.0 813 87.6 78.0 74.2 773 3 2.3 3-0 2.0 4,2 5.5 4.0 4.7 4.1 372-6.9 38 39 75.0 81.7 75.6 873 81.4 79.0 79.2 77.2 71,7 69.3 79.1 80.1 78.4 80.8 79.7 83.3 S0.2 77.6 -IX -.4 .9 -.7 3 -.7 3.0 1.2 -.1 20 22 23 26 83.4 83.0 85.7 81.1 89.2 87.3 85.4 90.4 85.1 93.5 80.7 82.7 77,7 753 85.0 82,8 81.6 85.5 79.1 87.8 833 82.1 84.7 76,2 89.3 81.0 80.2 83.0 74.2 86.8 .2 .7 3.0 Z2 -.7 .4 1.6 .4 .8 -.1 13 .9 .8 27 28 29 30 31 85J 79.S 86.6 84.5 80.8 91.7 86.2 8&5 89.6 83.3 79.6 79.3 82.1 79.5 94.5 77.4 76.1 81.9 76.8 96.5 84,0 63JB 10 12 13 14 87.5 79.1 86.6 88.6 84.8 88.0 89.4 91.5 88.2 89.0 87.0 79.9 83.4 88.7 79.4 70,9 88.1 90.8 84.2 88.9 86.3 85.1 79.8 95.2 85.5 66.9 88.6 912 84.5 89,6 85.5 491.3pt 492.3pt 87.3 89.2 82.4 92.6 95.0 8S.0 83.4 87.1 67.1 89.4 90.8 83.7 Special aggregates Computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors' 80.3 81.9 72.4 Manufacturing excluding computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors* 81.2 86.1 76.8 Manufacturing. Primary processing .., Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel Raw steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Computer and office equipment Electrical machinery Semiconductors and related electronic components Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts Autos and light trucks- . . . . Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures . . . . Nondurable manufacturing . Foods Textile mill products . . . . Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum produett Rubber and plastics products . Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction . . , Stone and earth minerals . Utilities . . . Elcciric . Gas . . . , NOTE. The "high" column refers to periods in which utilization generally peaked; the "low" column refers 10 recession years in which utilization generally bottomed out. The monthly highs and lows are specific to each series, and all did not occur in the same month. ss.i 1. 2. 3. pt -.6 -1.8 -.5 -.1 .7 .1 -10 -3 -.4 .8 -.7 -.8 .9 3.7 .2 -13 -1.2 .1 -1.7 -.4 1.0 .4 3 -2.1 -1.0 1.5 -.4 -.5 -3.0 -1.9 863 87.3 87.1 86.0 84.5 -2 A -2.0 .2 -S -.9 —1 -42 -.6 1.5 -2.5 .2 -23 -2.9 -3.4 90.8 93.2 81.1 94.6 97.7 81.9 -.6 81.4 82.0 77.4 81.3 82.6 80.7 mi -1.6 -.1 1.0 -33 -.1 Standard Industrial Classification: see table A.4, note I. Series begins in 1977. Semiconductors include related electronic components, Pan of classification. 1.4 2.0 -.2 32 Federal Reserve Bulletin J January 1999 A.7. Annual proportions in industrial production, by industry group, 1990-97 Iiem SIC code1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 i 1996 1997 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 84.4 84.5 85.4 85.9 86.7 86.8 86.8 87.8 26.8 57.6 26.1 58.4 26.6 58.9 27.0 58.9 28.2 58.5 28.0 58.8 27.6 59.2 27.8 60.0 44.2 1.8 1.3 2.1 44.9 45.6 46.3 25 32 44.8 1.8 1.4 2.2 46.8 2.1 1.4 2.2 47.6 2.1 1.4 2.3 48.5 2.1 1.4 33 331,2 33Ipt 333-6.9 34 35 3.3 1.9 .1 1.4 5.1 8.3 3.1 1.7 .1 1.4 4.9 7.9 3.1 1.8 .1 1.4 5.0 3.6 2.0 .1 1.6 357 36 1.8 6.7 6.8 7.8 1.6 7.1 3.5 1.9 .1 1.6 5.4 9.2 1.8 8.6 3672-9 2.2 2.3 37 371 371 pi 9.7 4.7 2.7 9.6 4.6 2.6 372-6,9 38 39 5.0 5.1 1.3 5.0 5.4 1.3 39.6 9.0 1.5 1.7 2.1 3.7 40.3 9.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.7 2.2 3.5 6.7 6.8 9.9 1.5 Total index Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Lumber and producls Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel Raw steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Computer and office equipment Electrical machinery Semiconductors and related electronic components Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and pans Autos and light trucksAerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufacturing Foods Tobacco products Textile mill producls Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Leather and producls Mining : Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals Utilities Electric Gas Special ugxrexates Computers, communications equipment. and semiconductors Manufacturing excluding computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors 2 ' ' 24 ' ' 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 31 9.8 1.6 3.2 .3 3.3 .3 2.2 1.4 2.1 2.2 1.4 2.2 3.3 1.9 .1 1.4 5.1 8.1 1.6 7.4 3.5 2.0 .1 1.6 5.2 8.4 1.6 7.8 3.5 1.9 .1 1.6 5.3 8.9 1.7 8.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.7 9.4 4.7 2.5 9.5 5.1 2.6 9.3 5.5 2.8 8.9 5.4 2.7 8.8 5.2 2.7 9.2 5.3 2.6 4.7 5.4 1.3 4.4 5.3 1.3 3.8 4.9 1.3 3,5 4.8 1,3 3.6 4.9 1.4 4.8 1.4 40.6 9.6 40.3 9.6 1.1 40.1 9.2 1.3 1.7 2.0 3.9 39.3 9.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 3.5 39.3 8.9 2.1 3.4 40.4 9.3 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.8 6.8 10.0 1.4 3.5 .3 6.8 9.9 6.6 10.0 1.5 3.6 .3 1.6 3.8 .2 6.6 9.9 1.5 3.7 .2 6.6 9.7 1.6 3.7 .2 6,7 9.8 1.6 3.8 6.8 6.4 6.0 .5 .4 .5 .9 4.0 .6 6.5 .4 .9 4.6 .6 5.9 .4 1.0 6.1 .5 .9 4.1 .6 2.1 1.8 2.4 5.5 9.4 1.9 8.8 3.9 1.3 1,6 1.8 3,5 .2 10 12 13 14 .5 7.5 .5 1.2 5.6 .6 I.I 5.3 .6 4.7 .9 4.4 .6 .6 7.7 6.3 1.5 8.0 6.5 1.5 7.8 6.2 1.6 7.7 ft.l 1.6 7.4 5.S 1.5 7.1 5.6 1.5 6.7 5.4 1.3 6.3 491.3pl 492.3pl 5.4 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.9 7.3 7.6 79.0 79.2 79.8 80.1 80.4 80.0 79.5 80.1 7.9 N u i t . The IP proportion data arc estimates of ihe industries' relative contribution to overall IP growth in the following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing in 1998 would account for a 0.485 percent increase in total [P. 1.6 2.1 1.4 1. Standard Industrial Classification; see table A.4. note I. 2. Semiconductors include related electronic components, pi Pan of classification. .9 4.1 .6 5.2 I.I Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision A.8. 33 Rates of growth in electric power use, 1994-98 Item Difference between growth rates: revised less earlier (percentage points) Revised growth rate (percent) SIC code1 1994 1995 1996 1997 Total 4.9 -.8 1.5 Manufacturing. 5.1 -.9 1.4 3.1 -.1 1.4 .8 4.0 3.1 -1.0 5.4 -1,4 .6 -1.2 -2.0 .1 .0 .4 .6 .0 .3 Durable manufacturing Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products . Primary metals Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment . Electrical machinery Transportalion equipment Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufacturing . Foods Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products. Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction ... Stone and earth minerals . Su/Jplemeniary groups Total, excluding nuclear nondelense Utilities sales to industry Industrial generation 1994 1.0 -2.6 I.I -2.9 1995 1996 1997 1998 .2 .3 .5 -.1 .0 .2 .3 .5 .0 .0 .4 -.6 -.3 .4 1.4 .4 .7 -.8 A 2.3 .2 _^ -1.4 _2 __ •) -.7 _2 1.1 -2.0 .8 .9 .6 .4 24 25 32 33 34 3.4 2.9 7.6 2.1 3.0 5.5 .5 1.5 -3.6 1.5 1 _2 43 4.2 3.4 -3.8 3.7 35 36 37 38 39 4.0 2.4 4.1 1.7 II.1 .4 1.5 -2.0 .4 -4.7 1.4 2.5 _^ -2^8 6.9 3.0 2.3 5.2 .6 .3 2.6 2.0 -7.5 1.3 -3.8 .5 2 -.5 .8 _2 .5 -1.0 -.8 .9 -I.I -.2 -1.1 -.7 .6 -1.4 -.1 -.8 -.4 -.3 -.7 1.2 5.1 I.I -.6 .7 6.5 4.5 -5.5 6.0 6.8 2.7 -2.0 2.5 6.3 -3.4 -6.4 -.6 2.6 1.7 2^9 -1.8 .4 -.5 22 ~,5 2.1 -2.0 2.2 -4.4 20' 21 22 23 26 .3 1.0 -.3 .6 .5 -1 2 .9 -1.2 -.2 .4 -.1 .3 .7 -2.2 .3 .8 .0 .3 .5 -2.3 -1.0 .5 1.3 -.9 -.7 3.2 -.9 .3 ,1 27 28 29 30 3! 4.2 9.7 2.7 9.0 -3.5 .7 -6.5 7.3 —5 -9^2 .8 5.7 -3.3 3.4 -1.4 3.0 -4.2 2.5 .6 -1.7 -2.3 -9.7 -2.0 3.7 .0 .2 1.1 -.3 .8 .3 1 1.2 -.2 -4.5 _ J -s.o .5 .3 .0 .3 -.6 -.1 2.0 -.4 -.6 .8 -2.2 1.2 -.! 1.4 2.2 5.6 7.4 -».8 7.5 1.0 8.5 -1.3 -4-9 5.7 2.8 2.5 .0 4.4 3.7 -.4 .4 -.6 1.0 -4.2 1.8 .0 8.1 -4.5 10.5 .0 -.2 -I .0 .2 .0 -.2 .0 .0 .5 .5 — 1 .0 1.4 2 -1.2 -I ,3 -.8 -5.8 .6 -1.6 1.0 -1.0 7.3 3.7 5.3 1.3 .6 -1.2 4.8 .9 1.9 -5.7 2.2 1.0 .8 -1.5 -2.6 2.4 .2 .3 -.3 .3 .4 _ | .4 .3 -.1 -.1 .1 .4 .2 .4 .4 10 12 13 14 NOTE. Growih rates are calculated as ihe percentage change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter oi the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified. For 1998. the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1997 to Ihc third quarter of 1998 and annualized. 1998 —? — ? -5.0 2.6 -8.5 -4.0 I 1. Standard Industrial Classification; sec table A.4, note 1. 34 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November 1998 Released for publication December 16 Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in November after an upwardly revised increase of 0.2 percent in October. The decline in the index resulted from a fall of 3.4 percent in the output of utilities and of 1.2 percent in the output of mines. Manufacturing output was unchanged after having risen 0.6 percent in October. At 131.8 percent of its 1992 average, industrial production in November was 1.5 percent higher than it was in November 1997. Capacity utilization fell 0.6 percentage point, to 80.6 percent, a level \l/i percentage points below its 1967-97 average. Industrial production and capacity utilization Percent of capacity Ratio scale, 1992= 100 Industrial production Capacity utilization 130 - Manufacturing ~J3? J ^ - y A/*\ 120 Total industry _ Total industry - 85 - 80 110 * Manufacturing - 100 \ 1 1 1990 i i i 1992 i V i 1994 1996 1998 1988 1990 1 1992 1 1 1994 1 1 1996 1 1998 Industrial production, market groups Ratio scale. 1992 = 100 __ f\ Consumer goods Durable — . Ratio scale, 1992 = 100 135 _ Intermediate products — 125 ^J\f i r Nondurable ~/*~ 1 1 1 1 1 Business supplies — Business - - ^ - 95 - 1 Ratio scale. 1992 = 100 Equipment 115 105 Yyf^vF - 95 / 1 Construction supplies /S'\ss'* - — 105 — 135 125 115 ^ - Ratio scale, 1992 = 100 175 160 145 130 115 - 100 - 85 — 175 Materials Durable gc ods - 160 145 — 130 115 100 /* Nondurable goods and energy _ Defense and space ^ 1 85 i 1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1990 1992 All scries are seasonally adjusted. Latest series. November. Capacity is an index ot potential industrial production. 1 1994 1 1 1996 1 1 1 1998 35 Industrial production and capacity utilization, November 1998 Industrial production, index, 1992= 100 Percentage change Category 1998 1998' Aug.' Sept.' Oct.' Nov. P Total 132.4 131.9 132.2 131.8 Previous estimate 132.5 132.0 132.0 Major market groups Products, total2 Consumer goods . . . . Business equipment . Construction supplies Materials 124.9 116.1 166.6 128.0 144.4 124.2 114.8 167.2 126.7 144.4 124.8 115.3 168.7 128.1 144.1 Major industry groups Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Mining Utilities 135.7 159.8 1113 103.7 120.2 135.2 159.5 110.6 102.7 120.5 136.0 160.7 111.0 101.9 116.1 Aug. r Sept.' Nov. -.3 1.5 1.8 -.5 1.4 -.4 .2 1.6 -.4 .0 124.4 115.4 167.7 129.0 143.7 1.3 1.9 1.9 -.3 1.7 -.6 -1.1 .4 -1.0 .0 .5 .4 .9 1.1 -.2 -3 .1 -.6 135.9 160.4 1.6 3.5 -.9 1.6 .6 .8 .4 -.8 -3.7 .0 -.2 100.7 I 12.5! -.4 -.2 -.6 -1.0 .2 .7 • -.3 -1.2 -3.4 1997 Total 82.1 Low, 1982 71.1 High, 1988-89 85.4 81.1 80.5 82.3 87.5 87.3 69.0 70.4 66.2 80.3 75.9 85.7 84.2 88.0 92.6 NOTE. Data seasonally adjusted or calculated from seasonally adjusted monthly data. 1. Change from preceding month. MARKET GROUPS The output of consumer goods edged up 0.1 percent after an upwardly revised increase of 0.4 percent in October. Among consumer durables, production of automotive products decreased, but remained near the high level in October; the decline was offset, however, by a 0.7 percent increase in the production of other consumer durables, mainly computers and appliances. The output of nondurable consumer goods other than energy products, which rose 0.3 percent, was led by a second month of strong gains in the production of foods and consumer chemicals. The output of consumer energy products fell 1.2 percent, a drop that reflected the lowering of residential demand for electricity and gas that came from the abnormally warm weather during the month. The production of business equipment fell 0.6 percent, reversing the upward-revised increase in October. The drop reflected widespread declines in the production of most types of business equipment. 2.0 4.7 -1.3 -4.1 -1.2 1998 Capacity, percentage change, Nov. 1997 to Nov. 1998 Nov. Aug. 1 Sept.' Oct.1 Nov. i' 83.4 82.0 81.3 81.2 80.6 5.0 82.0 81.4 81.1 80.7 79.9 83.1 86.3 95.1 79.5 82.0 85.4 95.2 80.2 79.6 82.1 84.7 91.6 79.8 79.3 81.7 83.5 88.5 5.6 6.6 3.0 Previous estimate Manufacturing Advanced processing .. Primary processing Mining Utilities 7.9 4.4 .9 MEMO Capacity utilization, percent Average, 1967-97 Nov. 1997 to Nov. 1998 Oct.' 82.6 81.6 85.4 87.9 90.3 .9 .7 2. Contains components in addition to those shown, r Revised, p Preliminary. A notable exception was the production of computers, where continued strength pushed up the reading on the output of information processing equipment. Declines in the production of civilian aircraft and business vehicles lowered the overall output of transit equipment, and further weakness in the production of farm machinery reduced output in the "other equipment" category. The output of construction supplies increased 0.7 percent after having risen 1.1 percent in October. Gains continued to be widespread among most of the underlying components of this index. In contrast, the production of business supplies fell 1.0 percent, a drop that reflected, in part, the reduced commercial use of energy. The production of materials fell 0.3 percent after having dropped 0.2 percent in October. The production of durable goods materials edged up 0.2 percent, as continued strength in the production of semiconductors, printed circuit boards, and other electronic components was only partly offset by a sharp drop in 36 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 the production of basic metals; the production of iron and steel fell 5.0 percent. The output of nondurable goods materials slipped again, with weakness in the production of chemicals, textiles, and paper. Because of the drop in electricity generation, the output of energy materials fell 1.8 percent. INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing output was unchanged as gains in the production of nondurable goods were offset by a falloff in the production of durables. Among durables, declines in the production of primary metals, industrial machinery other than computers, and transportation equipment contributed to the November weakness. In contrast, the production of nondurable goods edged up 0.2 percent and was led by increases of '/2 percent or more in the production of foods, petroleum products, and rubber and plastic products. The reading on mining production continued to fall, being pulled down by the continued contraction in oil and gas extraction and declines in natural gas output and coal mining activity. The factory operating rate dropped 0.4 percentage point, to 79.8 percent—more than 23A percentage points below the level it had reached in November 1997. Utilization rates for both primary- and advanced-processing industries have fallen this year to levels below their historical averages. Similarly, utilization at mines fell to 83.5 percent—more than 4 percentage points below its year-ago level and well below its historical averages. REVISION OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION On November 24, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its measures of industrial production (IP), capacity, capacity utilization, and industrial use of electric power. The revisions began with 1992 and incorporated updated source data for more recent years. This regular updating of source data for IP included annual data from the Bureau of the Census's 7996 Annual Survey of Manufactures and from selected editions of its 7997 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data from the Department of the Interior on metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 1996 and 1997 were also introduced. The updating also included revisions to the monthly indicators for each industry (physical product data, productionworker hours, or electric power usage) and revised seasonal factors. In addition, the revision introduced improved measures of production for semiconductors, coal, lawn and garden equipment, and aircraft. Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate preliminary data from the Census Bureau's 7997 Survey of Plant Capacity. The statistics on the industrial use of electric power incorporated more complete reports received from utilities for the past few years as well as data from the 7996 Annual Survey of Manufactures. The revised data are available on the Board's web site, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/gl7, and on diskettes from Publications Services (telephone 202-452-3245). Further information on these revisions is available from the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. • 37 Announcements REDUCTION IN THE DISCOUNT RATE The Federal Reserve on November 17, 1998, announced the following set of policy actions: • The Board of Governors approved a reduction in the discount rate by 25 basis points from 43/4 percent to 4'/2 percent. • The federal funds rate is expected to fall 25 basis points from around 5 percent to around 43A percent. Although conditions in financial markets have settled down materially since mid-October, unusual strains remain. With the 75 basis point decline in the federal funds rate since September, financial conditions can reasonably be expected to be consistent with fostering sustained economic expansion while keeping inflationary pressures subdued. In taking the discount rate action, the Board approved requests submitted by the boards of directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, and Dallas. Subsequently, the Board approved similar actions by the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, also effective November 17; by the boards of directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Richmond, Atlanta, and Kansas City, effective November 18; by the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, effective November 19; and by the boards of directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis, also effective November 19. The discount rate is the interest rate that is charged depository institutions when they borrow from their District Federal Reserve Banks. REDUCTIONS IN FEES FOR PAYMENT SERVICES OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS The Federal Reserve Board on November 4, 1999, announced continued price reductions in fees for electronic payment services provided to depository institutions by the Federal Reserve Banks. Most of the new fees become effective January 4, 1999. Prices across all electronic payment services will decline 17.5 percent in 1999, reflecting lower prices for Fedwire and automated clearinghouse (ACH) transactions. In large part, the savings reflect the efficiencies gained from the successful completion of a five-year project to consolidate the Federal Reserve's computer facilities. For 1999, the Reserve Banks will reduce the basic fee for a Fedwire funds transfer and a Fedwire securities transfer by almost 30 percent and 25 percent respectively. The Reserve Banks will eliminate some ACH fees and reduce other fees for their ACH customers, including the fee for items received, which will decline more than 12 percent. Fees for paper check products, which include forward-processed, fine-sort, and returned checks, will increase about 2.6 percent on a volume-weighted basis (a 3.7 percent increase from January 1998 fee levels). This increase is driven primarily by increases in fine-sort and returned-check fees. Fees for forward-processed items will remain stable. Fees for payor bank services, which include electronic check products, will increase about 0.6 percent (a 1.2 percent increase from January 1998 fee levels). Besides these fee changes, the Reserve Banks will implement a volume-based fee structure for the Fedwire funds transfer service and a new fee structure for the Fedwire securities transfer service. These structure changes become effective February 1, 1999. During the first quarter of 1999, the Reserve Banks will also implement an enhanced multilateral settlement service that will allow participants in settlement arrangements to submit settlement files to the Federal Reserve electronically, improving operational efficiency over current methods. The fees and fee structure for the new and existing multilateral settlement services have been revised by lowering the per-entry fee, introducing a settlement file fee, and increasing the off-line surcharge. Working with other industry participants, the Reserve Banks also plan to expand their efforts to educate depository institutions and end users about the benefits of the ACH. This campaign, coupled with ACH fee decreases for 1999, is expected to spur commercial ACH growth and help broaden the use of electronic payment systems. The Monetary Control Act of 1980 requires that the Federal Reserve recover the costs of providing 38 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 certain payment services over the long term. During the 1988-97 period, the Reserve Banks recovered 99.6 percent of the costs of priced services. The Reserve Banks project that they will recover 101.0 percent of their priced services costs for 1999, including imputed expenses and targeted return on equity, generating a net income of $64.2 million. The Reserve Banks estimate that they will recover 102.2 percent of their costs in 1998. On November 4, 1998, the Board also approved the 1999 private-sector adjustment factor (PSAF) for Reserve Bank priced services of $115.8 million, an increase of $7.3 million, or 6.7 percent, from the 1998 targeted PSAF of $108.5 million. The PSAF is an allowance for taxes and other imputed expenses that would have been paid and return on capital that would have been earned had the Federal Reserve's priced services been provided by a private business firm. PROVISION FOR ENHANCED SETTLEMENT SERVICES TO DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS The Federal Reserve Board on November 3, 1998, announced plans for providing an enhanced settlement service to depository institutions. The enhanced service combines and improves selected features from the Reserve Banks' existing net settlement services. Under the enhanced service beginning March 29, 1999, the Federal Reserve Banks will offer a fully automated settlement service that provides participants in clearing arrangements with finality of settlement intraday on the settlement date. The service will provide the settling participants with an on-line mechanism to submit an electronic file of settlement information to the Federal Reserve. Besides increasing operational efficiency, the enhanced service is intended to facilitate a reduction in the duration of settlement risk for private-sector clearing arrangements. DECREASE IN THE NET TRANSACTION ACCOUNTS TO WHICH A 3 PERCENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT WILL APPLY IN 1999 The Federal Reserve Board on November 24, 1998, announced a decrease from $47.8 million to $46.5 million in the net transaction accounts to which a 3 percent reserve requirement will apply in 1999. This adjustment is known as the low reserve tranche adjustment. The Board also changed from $4.7 million to $4.9 million the amount of reservable liabilities of each depository institution that is subject to a reserve requirement of 0 percent. Additionally, the Board increased the deposit cutoff levels that are used in conjunction with the exemption level to determine the frequency and detail of deposit reporting required for each institution from $78.9 million to $81.9 million for nonexempt depository institutions and from $50.7 million to $52.6 million for exempt depository institutions. For depository institutions that report weekly, the low reserve tranche adjustment and the reservable liabilities exemption adjustment will apply to the reserve computation period that begins Tuesday, December 1, 1998, and the corresponding reserve maintenance period that begins Thursday, December 31, 1998. For institutions that report quarterly, the low reserve tranche adjustment and the reservable liabilities exemption adjustment, will apply to the reserve computation period that begins Tuesday, December 15, 1998, and the corresponding reserve maintenance period that begins Thursday, January 14, 1999. JOINT STATEMENT ON THE ALLOWANCE FOR LOAN LOSSES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS The Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve Board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision on November 24, 1998, jointly issued the following statement on the allowance for loan losses of depository institutions. The Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve Board, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Office of Thrift Supervision (the Agencies) recognize the importance of meaningful financial statements and disclosure for both the benefit of investors and a safe and sound financial system. The Agencies also recognize the importance of depository institutions having prudent, conservative, but not excessive loan loss allowances that fall within an acceptable range of estimated losses. Accordingly, the Agencies are issuing this Statement to better ensure the consistent application of loan loss accounting policy and to improve the transparency of financial statements. In 1986, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued FRR 28 concerning Procedural Discipline in Determining the Allowance and Provision for Loan Losses to be Reported. In 1993, the four Federal banking agencies jointly issued the lnteragency Policy Statement on the Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (lnteragency Statement). These documents provide guidance to depository Announcements institutions on the establishment and maintenance of an allowance consistent with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). As these materials make clear, the allowance for loan losses should reflect estimated credit losses for specifically identified loans, as well as estimated probable credit losses inherent in the remainder of the loan portfolio at the balance sheet date. When determining the appropriate level for the allowance, management should always ensure that the overall allowance appropriately reflects a margin for the imprecision inherent in most estimates of expected credit losses. Management's judgment should be exercised in a disciplined manner that is based on and reflective of adequate detailed analyses of the loan portfolio. Although management's process for determining allowance adequacy is judgmental and results in a range of estimated losses, it must not be used to manipulate earnings or mislead investors, funds providers, regulators or other affected parties. Management's process must be based on a comprehensive, adequately documented, and consistently applied analysis of the institution's loan portfolio. The depository institution must ensure that its allowance is supportable in light of the accompanying disclosures made to investors, including those made in management's discussion and analysis and financial footnotes, with respect to the underlying economics and trends in the portfolio and any other factors that significantly affect the collectibility of loans. The Agencies have discussed their respective concerns about accounting for allowances for loan losses and agree that the approach to the allowance should be consistent with the guidance noted above. Accordingly, each of the Agencies will continue to fulfill its respective responsibilities for ensuring that the allowance for loan losses is appropriately determined and that earnings are not improperly managed, consistent with safety and soundness objec- 39 tives and investor protection objectives. The banking agencies understand that the SEC's general concerns about earnings management issues extend to all SEC registrants, not merely banking organizations, and that questions have arisen with respect to loan loss allowances in this context only with regard to a small number of banking organizations. The Agencies today have agreed to work together with the public accounting profession and banking industry in developing further guidance consistent with GAAP, the Interagency Statement and FRR 28. This additional guidance will help to ensure the transparency of the reported amounts, improve auditability, and serve as a benchmark for the exercise of prudent judgment. The Chief Accountants of each of the Agencies will meet quarterly to coordinate this and other projects of mutual interest. ENFORCEMENT ACTIONS The Federal Reserve Board on November 17, 1998, announced the issuance of a cease and desist order against the Frontier Bank of Laramie County, Cheyenne, Wyoming. The order, which includes provisions addressing year 2000 readiness, was issued jointly with the Wyoming Department of Audit, Division of Banking. Also on November 17, 1998, the Federal Reserve Board announced the issuance of a cease and desist order against William Shilstone, a former institutionaffiliated party of the New York branch of Societe Generate, New York, New York. • 40 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Held on September 29, 1998 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 29, 1998, at 9:00 a.m. Present: Mr. Greenspan, Chairman Mr. McDonough, Vice Chairman Mr. Ferguson Mr. Gramlich Mr. Hoenig Mr. Jordan Mr. Kelley Mr. Meyer Ms. Minehan Mr. Poole Ms. Rivlin Mr. Reinhart, Deputy Associate Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Mr. Struckmeyer, Assistant Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Ms. Low, Open Market Secretariat Assistant, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Messrs. Spillenkothen and Parkinson,2 Director, Division of Supervision and Regulation, and Associate Director, Division of Research and Statistics respectively, Board of Governors Messrs. Boehne, McTeeir, Moskow, and Stern, Alternate Members of the Federal Open Market Committee Messrs. Broaddus, Guynn, and Parry, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco respectively Mr. Kohn, Secretary and Economist Mr. Bernard, Deputy Secretary Ms. Fox, Assistant Secretary Mr. Gillum, Assistant Secretary Mr. Mattingly, General Counsel Mr. Baxter, Deputy General Counsel Mr. Truman, Economist Mr. Connolly, First Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Messrs. Eisenbeis, Goodfriend, Hunter, Kos, Lang, and Rolnick, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Richmond, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis respectively Messrs. Judd and Rosengren, Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of San Francisco and Boston respectively Ms. Yucel, Research Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Messrs. Cecchetti, Dewald, Hakkio, Lindsey, Simpson, Sniderman, and Stockton, Associate Economists Mr. Fisher, Manager, System Open Market Account Mr. Winn, Assistant to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors' Mr. Ettin, Deputy Director. Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Messrs. Madigan and Slifman, Associate Directors, Divisions of Monetary Affairs and Research and Statistics respectively, Board of Governors I. Attended portion of the meeting relating disclosure policies. Messrs. Alexander, Hooper, and Ms. Johnson, Associate Directors, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors the Committee's By unanimous vote, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee held on August 18, 1998, were approved. The Manager of the System Open Market Account reported on recent developments in foreign exchange markets. There were no open market operations in foreign currencies for the System's account in the period since the previous meeting, and thus no vote was required of the Committee. The Manager also reported on developments in domestic financial markets and on System open mar2. Attended portion of meeting relating to developments stemming from the financial difficulties of a large hedge fund. 41 ket transactions in government securities and federal agency obligations during the period August 18, 1998, through September 28, 1998. By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified these transactions. The Committee then turned to a discussion of the economic and financial outlook, and the implementation of monetary policy over the intermeeting period ahead. A summary of the economic and financial information available at the time of the meeting and of the Committee's discussion is provided below, followed by the domestic policy directive that was approved by the Committee and issued to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The information reviewed at this meeting suggested that economic activity was expanding at a moderate rate. Growth of private domestic final demand had slowed from its pace in the first half of the year, though it was still relatively robust, and reduced spending on U.S. exports and rising import competition were exerting appreciable restraint on overall activity, as was a slowing in inventory investment. Reflecting the moderation in growth from the first half of the year, total payroll employment was trending up at a somewhat slower pace. Despite the pressures on labor resources associated with stilltight labor markets, trends in wages and prices remained stable. Growth in nonfarm payroll employment slowed somewhat over the July-August period. The deceleration reflected further job losses in the manufacturing sector, notably in the apparel and electronic components industries on which the crisis in Asia was having a sizable adverse effect. Outside of manufacturing, employment increases remained strong in the service-producing industries, and even though anecdotal reports continued to indicate shortages of skilled workers, further sizable job gains were recorded in construction. The civilian unemployment rate stayed at 4.5 percent in August. Industrial output rebounded in August as production at General Motors resumed following the settlement of the labor strike. Outside the motor vehicle sector, however, output had changed little on balance over recent months in association with the erosion in net exports stemming from the turmoil in Asia and its repercussions on a number of other U.S. trading partners; production of consumer goods edged down on balance in July and August, and the growth of output of business equipment slowed. The rise in industrial production in August boosted the rate of utilization of manufacturing capacity, but the factory operating rate remained somewhat below the level of late last year. Total retail sales were held down in July and August by a sharp contraction in spending for motor vehicles, but non-auto sales continued to rise at a brisk pace. The gains were widespread, with increases in spending on furniture and appliances, apparel, and miscellaneous nondurables especially strong. Purchases of services also were up appreciably further in July and August after a rapid secondquarter rise. Sales and construction of residential buildings remained quite strong on balance, reflecting very favorable homebuying conditions. Housing starts slipped in August but were still above the high level of the first half of the year. Sales of existing homes dropped back in August from the record high registered in July, while sales of new homes were slightly higher in July (latest data) than in the first half of the year. Available indicators pointed to more moderate growth in business fixed investment after the surge in capital spending during the first half of the year. Shipments of nondefense capital goods declined in July and August, retracing much of June's large increase, while sales of medium and heavy trucks continued to increase at a rapid pace. Nonresidential construction weakened in July, extending a pattern of sluggish building activity; construction of industrial structures remained in a downtrend, and office building activity changed little on balance over June and July. Business inventory accumulation eased further in July after having slowed sharply in the second quarter, and inventory-sales ratios remained moderate. Stockbuilding in manufacturing was at a somewhat lower rate in July than in the second quarter, and the stock-shipments ratio for the sector stayed a little above the low level that had prevailed over the past year. At the wholesale level, a further decline in inventories reflected additional reductions in motor vehicles; the inventory-shipments ratio remained in the upper part of its narrow range for the past year. In the retail sector, a sharp drop in stocks at automotive dealerships more than offset a rise in stocks of other goods. The aggregate inventory-sales ratio for the retail sector was at a relatively low level. The nominal deficit on U.S. trade in goods and services narrowed slightly in July from its secondquarter average, with the value of imports falling more than the value of exports. Much of the decline in imports and exports involved trade in automotive products with Canada and Mexico. Economic activity in the major foreign industrial countries other than Japan decelerated on average in the second quarter, with a deterioration in net exports partially offsetting continued strength in domestic final demand. In Japan, activity contracted for a third consecutive quarter; net exports made a large positive contri- 42 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 bution as imports dropped sharply, but domestic demand, most notably business fixed investment, fell steeply. Both the overall and the core CPI again rose moderately in August; a further increase in food prices was offset by a sizable decrease in energy prices. For the twelve months ended in August, core consumer prices rose slightly more than they had in the yearearlier period. At the producer level, prices of finished goods dropped appreciably in August, largely reflecting declines in the prices of finished foods and, notably, energy goods. Producer prices of finished goods other than food and energy moved slightly higher in the twelve months ended in August after having edged down in the year-earlier period. Producer prices at earlier stages of production were under strong downward pressure; prices of intermediate materials fell during the year ended in August by slightly more than they had risen in the year-earlier period, and prices of crude materials plunged further in the twelve months ended in August. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers continued to increase at a relatively moderate pace in the July-August period, and for the twelve months ended in August they rose slightly more than in the year-earlier period. At its meeting on August 18, 1998, the Committee adopted a directive that called for maintaining conditions in reserve markets that would be consistent with the federal funds rate continuing to average around 5'/: percent. However, in light of mounting financial strains abroad, their potential implications for the U.S. economy, and less accommodative conditions in domestic financial markets, the Committee concluded that the risks to the outlook were no longer tilted toward rising inflation but had become more balanced. Accordingly, the Committee adopted a directive that did not include a presumption about the likely direction of any adjustment to policy during the intermeeting period. The reserve conditions associated with this directive were expected to be consistent with moderate growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. Open market operations were directed throughout the intermeeting period toward maintaining the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions, and the federal funds rate remained close to its intended level of 5'/2 percent. In an atmosphere of greatly increased volatility in financial asset values worldwide and a reduced appetite for risk among many investors, interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities, and to a much smaller extent on investment-grade corporate debt, fell appreciably during the intermeeting period; in contrast, yields on the bonds of lower rated firms increased sharply, and a number of large banks tightened terms and standards for making business loans to sizable firms. Credit conditions also tightened in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Share prices in U.S. and foreign equity markets remained volatile during the intermeeting period, and major U.S. equity price indexes declined considerably further on balance. In foreign exchange markets, the trade-weighted value of the dollar depreciated substantially over the intermeeting period in relation to other major currencies. A spreading perception that the United States was more vulnerable than either Europe or Japan to an economic downturn in Latin America, increasing expectations of monetary easing in the United States, and shifts into yen associated with the end of the fiscal half-year in Japan and the unwinding of some investment positions financed in yen were factors that weighed on the dollar. By contrast, the dollar appreciated slightly in terms of an index of currencies that includes the developing countries of Latin America and Asia that are important trading partners of the United States. Growth of M2 and M3 picked up considerably in August and apparently strengthened further in September. The acceleration was the result of unusually large inflows to money market funds that in part reflected households' preference for relatively safe, liquid placements for funds shifted out of equities and lower-rated corporate debt. For the year through September, both aggregates recorded growth rates well above the Committee's ranges for the year. Expansion of total domestic nonfinancial debt had moderated somewhat in recent months after having picked up earlier in the year. The staff forecast prepared for this meeting incorporated a considerably weaker assessment of underlying aggregate demand, owing to downward revisions to growth abroad and to the less accommodative conditions that were evolving in U.S. financial markets. The staff projected that the expansion of economic activity would slow for a time to a pace appreciably below the estimated growth of the economy's potential and then would pick up to a rate more in line with that potential. Damped expansion of foreign economic activity and the lagged effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place considerable restraint on the demand for U.S. exports for a period ahead and to lead to further substitution of imports for domestic products. Domestic production also would be held back for a while by the efforts of firms to bring inventories into better balance with the anticipated moderation in the trajectory of final sales. In Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee addition, private final demand would be restrained by tighter lending terms and conditions as well as the drop that had occurred in equity prices. Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed, but inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year. In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic conditions, members focused on developments that pointed to the potential for a significant weakening in the growth of spending. They recognized that there were at present few statistical indications that the economy was on a significantly slower growth track. Indeed,' the available data suggested that consumer expenditures and business investment retained considerable strength. At the same time, however, investors' perceptions of risks and their aversion to taking on more risk had increased markedly in financial markets around the world. That change in sentiment was exacerbating financial and economic problems in a number of important trading partners of the United States. In addition, it was generating lower equity prices and tightening credit availability in U.S. financial markets. As a consequence, the downside risks to the domestic expansion appeared to have risen substantially in recent weeks. Though labor markets were expected to remain relatively tight for some time, the members saw little prospect that inflation would gather significant momentum in coming quarters. Declining commodity and other import prices would be restraining prices and inflation expectations for a while. Overall consumer prices might rise a little more rapidly next year as the effects of a number of favorable factors, such as falling energy prices, diminished or reversed, but underlying inflation was expected to stay quite subdued as inflation expectations remained damped and pressures in labor markets became less pronounced. The intensification and further spread of turmoil in international financial markets, notably since the outbreak of a financial crisis in Russia in mid-August, had spilled over into U.S. financial markets. Strong demands for safety and liquidity had driven down yields on U.S. Treasury securities, but spreads of private rates over Treasury rates had gapped higher. Increases in risk spreads were especially large for lower-grade borrowers and on bonds below investment grade, whose rates had increased considerably since mid-August. In addition, many banks had tightened their credit standards and terms. Prices in U.S. equity markets, which had weakened appreciably before the crisis in Russia, had declined substantially 43 further. These market developments strongly suggested, and anecdotal reports tended to confirm, the emergence of widespread perceptions of greater risks in a broad range of financial investment activities and of considerably greater reluctance to put capital at risk. The members did not believe that the tightness in credit markets and strong demand for safety and liquidity were likely to lead to a "credit crunch," though some members expressed the view that such an outcome could not be ruled out. At a time when business balance sheets already indicated a significant softening of cash flows owing to weaker profits, many business firms were experiencing increased difficulty and costs in their efforts to raise funds in debt or equity markets or to borrow from lending institutions; if these conditions were to persist, the sustainability of the current strength in business capital expenditures would come into question. The decline in stock market prices also appeared likely to damp the growth of consumer spending over time, with added implications for business capital expenditures. Despite the emergence of decidedly less hospitable financial conditions, there were few indications in the data available to the Committee of any weakening as yet in consumer and business spending. Consumer expenditures, though temporarily held back by shortages of new motor vehicles stemming from the work stoppage at General Motors, had remained on a solid uptrend, with overall growth in recent months apparently slipping only a little from a remarkably rapid pace in the first half of the year. Strong growth in jobs and incomes along with substantial further increases in stock market prices through mid-July had fostered a high level of consumer confidence and spending. Members commented that the more recent weakness in the stock market and the related decline in household net worth had removed an important support for the growth of consumer spending, but they noted that recent surveys indicated only a slight deterioration in consumer sentiment and that the stimulus from earlier stock market gains probably would dissipate only gradually. Looking further ahead, consumer spending could be expected to expand at a pace that was more in line with the growth of household incomes than it had been in recent years. Growth in business investment spending, while apparently moderating from an extraordinary pace during the first half of the year, likewise seemed to have been little affected to date by the tightening in credit conditions and the increased aversion to risktaking. Data on shipments of capital equipment continued to display a clear uptrend, and members reported very strong construction activity in many 44 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 parts of the country. Declining relative prices and rapid technological advances were likely to generate appreciable further growth in spending for computer and office equipment over the projection horizon. Moreover, new orders for capital equipment did not suggest any general weakening, though such orders had declined dramatically in the steel industry under the weight of intense foreign competition. Even so, the members anticipated that the pronounced increase in investor and lender perceptions of risk would result in considerable moderation in the growth of overall business investment, especially in light of concurrent expectations of reduced gains in sales and profits and evidence of some diminution in both internal and external sources of financing. Reports from nearly every Federal Reserve District suggested that executives had become considerably more concerned about business prospects. In a number of cases they already had seen a substantial downturn in their exports or a surge in competing imports at prices they found difficult to match. In other cases they were anticipating such developments or were reacting to the general sense of unease and uncertainty evident in financial markets. Forthcoming data on capital spending, including new orders and contracts, were likely to point to a weaker uptrend in business fixed investment. How much weaker was a major uncertainty in the economic outlook and a key to determining the extent to which financial market turmoil was likely to affect the real economy. Very favorable underlying factors, including a strong job market and declining mortgage rates, had helped to sustain homebuilding activity at an elevated level. The large further advance in stock market prices earlier in the year also appeared to have been a positive factor in the strong performance of the housing market. While anecdotal reports suggested that softening was confined to only a few areas, the delayed effects of the drop in stock market prices and forecasts of slower employment and income growth suggested some moderation in housing activity at some point. Even so, the continued affordability of new homes for many households was likely to sustain housing demand at a relatively high albeit diminished level, and homebuilding activity would be bolstered for a time as backlogs created by shortages of skilled construction workers in many areas were worked off. Net exports, while subject to a great deal of uncertainty, were seen as likely to continue to restrain demand and production to a substantial extent over coming quarters. Members cited examples from across the country of business firms, notably in the manufacturing sector but also in energy, agriculture, forest products, and some other industries, that already were being adversely affected by weaker export markets and increased competition from lower-priced imports. Moreover, the intensification of turmoil in international financial markets since the Russian devaluation and debt moratorium had led to tighter financial conditions in key U.S. trading partners—especially in the Americas—a development that was likely to weaken growth in those markets and demand for U.S. products. Of potentially greater importance for the domestic economic outlook, however, was the spread of international financial unsettlement to U.S. financial markets and the attendant deterioration in business and investor confidence. It was clear that the contagious effects of international economic and financial turmoil had markedly increased the downside threat to the domestic expansion. In their comments about the outlook for inflation, members referred to the persistence of very tight labor markets across the nation and to indications of escalating increases in labor compensation in a number of areas. At the same time, price inflation generally had remained subdued, with little evidence of acceleration. As had been true for an extended period, competitive pressures were widely reported to be preventing employers from passing through rising labor costs to consumer prices. Looking ahead, members cited a variety of factors bearing on the prospects for inflation that on the whole suggested that the risks of an inflationary uptrend had receded. Favorable factors in the outlook for prices included the lingering effects of the dollar's earlier appreciation, ample industrial capacity, generally declining commodity and other import prices, and an apparently more rapid trend of productivity gains. Over time, some slowing in economic growth and less intense pressures on labor resources would hold down increases in labor costs. Developments that might tend to offset these positive factors, at least in part, included a possible turnaround in energy prices after sizable declines over the past year and an upturn in the costs of worker benefits, notably for medical expenses. A few members also observed that the rapid growth of key monetary aggregates, including M2, over a period of several quarters was a worrisome element in the outlook for inflation, though the most recent surge in M2 probably was induced in large measure by a flight to quality and liquidity. In their discussion of policy for the intermeeting period ahead, all the members endorsed a proposal calling for a slight easing in reserve markets to produce a decline of [A percentage point in the federal funds rate to an average of about 5lA percent. In their view, such an action was desirable to cushion the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee likely adverse consequences on future domestic economic activity of the global financial turmoil that had weakened foreign economies and of the tighter conditions in financial markets in the United States that had resulted in part from that turmoil. At a time of abnormally high volatility and very substantial uncertainty, it was impossible to predict how financial conditions in the United States would evolve. In the view of many members, equity prices and risk spreads in U.S. financial markets previously had embodied an overly optimistic assessment of business prospects, and they saw some correction in these markets as a positive development. Moreover, they expected markets to become much more settled once the initial adjustments to new risk assessments had been made. On balance, however, credit conditions were likely to remain tighter and equity prices lower than earlier, and in the context of continued damped inflation, monetary policy had the room to adjust to these new circumstances. In any event, an easing policy action at this point could provide added insurance against the risk of a further worsening in financial conditions and a related curtailment in the availability of credit to many borrowers. The members agreed that the decrease in the federal funds rate should be limited to 25 basis points. Several emphasized in this regard that although the risk of rising inflation might have receded, it was still present, especially in light of the persistence to date of very tight labor markets and relatively robust economic growth. In these circumstances, while an easing move was warranted to provide some insurance against undesirably tight domestic financial conditions, many members saw the need for a cautious policy action. A more sizable policy move at this point might convey an exaggerated impression of the Committee's current thinking regarding the extent of downside risks in the economy. The members were divided over whether to retain the current symmetrical directive or to adopt an asymmetrical directive that would be tilted toward ease. A small majority favored moving to asymmetry on the grounds that it seemed more consistent with the increased downside risks to the economy that they believed would exist even after the contemplated policy action and that it would underscore the Committee's readiness to respond promptly to conditions that might threaten the sustainability of the expansion. Other members expressed a preference for a symmetric directive but indicated that they could accept a directive that was tilted toward ease. In their opinion, the uncertainties relating to the direction of the next policy move were sufficiently great on both sides to justify a neutral directive. Some commented 45 that unanticipated developments were likely in any event to provide the principal basis for future policy actions. They suggested that the Committee would undoubtedly confer by telephone should such developments materialize during the intermeeting period, and the symmetry or asymmetry of the directive would have little bearing on whatever policy decision might be reached. At the conclusion of the Committee's discussion, all the members supported a directive that called for conditions in reserve markets that would be consistent with a slight decrease in the federal funds rate to an average of about 514 percent. All the members also indicated that they could accept a change in the directive to include a bias toward easing. Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher federal funds rate might be acceptable or a somewhat lower federal funds rate would be acceptable during the intermeeting period. The reserve conditions contemplated at this meeting were expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over the months ahead. Federal Reserve Bank of New York was authorized and directed, until instructed otherwise by the Committee, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The information reviewed at this meeting suggests that the economy has been growing at a moderate rate, paced by brisk, albeit slowing, increases in spending by businesses and households, while expansion in overall economic activity has continued to be restrained by developments abroad. Nonfarm payroll employment grew somewhat more slowly over July and August, mostly reflecting job losses in the manufacturing sector; the civilian unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent in August. Industrial production has changed little on balance over recent months. Total retail sales over July and August were held down by a sharp contraction in spending for motor vehicles. Residential sales and construction have remained quite strong in recent months. Available indicators point to continued growth in business capital spending, but at a more moderate pace than in the first half of the year. Business inventory accumulation slowed further in July. The nominal deficit on U.S. trade in goods and services narrowed slightly in July from its second-quarter average. Trends in wages and prices have remained stable in recent months. Most interest rates have fallen appreciably since the meeting on August 18, though yields on the bonds of lower-rated firms have increased and a number of large banks have tightened terms and standards for making business loans. Broadly similar developments have occurred in 46 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 major foreign markets. Share prices in U.S. and global equity markets have remained volatile and major indexes have declined considerably further on balance over the intermeeting period. In foreign exchange markets, the trade-weighted value of the dollar declined substantially over the intermeeting period in relation to other major currencies: it was up slightly in terms of an index of the currencies of the developing countries of Latin America and Asia that are important trading partners of the United States. Growth of M2 and M3 strengthened considerably in August and appeared to have picked up further in September, partly reflecting shifts of funds by households out of investments in equities and lower-rated corporate debt. For the year through September, both aggregates rose at rates well above the Committee's ranges for the year. Expansion of total domestic nonfinancial debt has moderated somewhat in recent months after a pickup earlier in the year. The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee reaffirmed at its meeting on June 30-July 1 the ranges it had established in February for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998. The range for growth of total domestic nonfinancial debt was maintained at 3 to 7 percent for the year. For 1999, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999. The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets. In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with decreasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 5'A percent. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a slightly higher federal funds rate might or a somewhat lower federal funds rate would be acceptable in the intermeeting period. The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months. Votes for this action: Messrs. Greenspan, McDonough, Ferguson, Gramlich, Hoenig, Jordan, Kelley, Meyer, Ms. Minehan, Mr. Poole, and Ms. Rivlin. Votes against this action: None. RELEASE OF INFORMATION ABOUT FOMC MEETINGS At this meeting, the Committee reviewed its current practices relating to its policy announcements, meeting minutes, and directive wording. This discussion was part of an ongoing appraisal of the Committee's disclosure policies. The Committee took no action at this meeting but agreed that further review of some of these issues would be appropriate. FINANCIAL PROBLEMS OF A LARGE HEDGE FUND The Committee discussed the limited role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in facilitating a private-sector resolution of the severe financial problems encountered in the portfolio managed by LongTerm Capital Management L.P. The size and nature of the positions of this fund were such that their sudden liquidation in already unsettled financial markets could well have induced further financial dislocations around the world that could have impaired the economies of many nations, including that of the United States. Against this background, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had brought together key interested parties with the aim of increasing the probability of an orderly private-sector solution to the hedge fund's difficulties. It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday, November 17, 1998. The meeting on September 29 adjourned at 2:40 p.m. CONFERENCE CALL In a telephone conference held on October 15, 1998, the Committee members discussed recent economic and financial developments and their implications for monetary policy. Risk aversion in financial markets had increased further since the Committee's meeting in September, raising volatility and risk spreads even more, eroding market liquidity, and constraining borrowing and lending in a number of sectors of the financial markets. Although indications of any softening in the pace of the economic expansion across the country remained sparse, the widespread signs of deteriorating business confidence and evidence of less accommodative domestic financial conditions suggested that the downside risks to the expansion had continued to mount. Against this background, a consensus emerged in favor of a 'A percentage point reduction in the federal funds rate that would accompany a reduction in the discount rate that the Board of Governors was expected to approve at a meeting following this telephone conference. Some members were concerned that a policy move so soon after the late September action might be misread as indicative of a degree of concern about prospective developments in financial Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee markets or the economic outlook that did not represent the Committee's thinking. However, the members generally concluded that the risk of adverse market reactions was worth taking and that the easing actions under consideration were more likely to help settle volatile financial markets and cushion the effects of more restrictive financial conditions on the ongoing expansion. At the conclusion of this discus- 47 sion, the Chairman indicated that he would instruct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lower the intended federal funds rate by 25 basis points, consistent with the Committee's directive issued at the meeting on September 29, 1998. Donald L. Kohn Secretary 49 Legal Developments FINAL RULE—AMENDMENT TO REGULATION A The Board of Governors is amending 12 C.F.R. Part 201, its Regulation A (Extensions of Credit by Federal Reserve Banks; Change in Discount Rate), to reflect its approval of a decrease in the basic discount rate at each Federal Reserve Bank. The Board acted on requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks. The amendments to 12 C.F.R. Part 201 were effective on November 17, 1998. The rate changes for adjustment credit were effective on the dates specified in 12 C.F.R. 201.51. Part 201—Extensions of Credit by Federal Reserve Banks (Regulation A) 1. The authority citation for Part 201 continues to read as follows: Authority: 12 U.S.C. 343 et seq., 347a, 347b, 347c, 347d, 348 et seq., 357, 374, 374a and 461. 2. Section 201.51 is revised to read as follows: Section 201.51 Adjustment credit for depository institutions. The rates for adjustment credit provided to depository institutions under section 201.3(a) are: Federal Reserve Bank Rate Effective Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 November November November November November November November November November November November November 18. 1998 17. 1998 17, 1998 19, 1998 18, 1998 18, 1998 19, 1998 19. 1998 19, 1998 18, 1998 17, 1998 17, 1998 reserve requirement of zero percent. This action is required by section 19(b)(ll)(B) of the Federal Reserve Act, and the adjustment is known as the reserveable liabilities exemption adjustment. The Board is also increasing the deposit cutoff levels that are used in conjunction with the reserveable liabilities exemption to determine the frequency of deposit reporting from $78.9 million to $81.9 million for nonexempt depository institutions and from $50.7 million to $52.6 million for exempt institutions. (Nonexempt institutions are those with total reserveable liabilities exceeding the amount exempted from reserve requirements ($4.9 million) while exempt institutions are those with total reserveable liabilities not exceeding the amount exempted from reserve requirements.) Thus, beginning in September 1999, nonexempt institutions with total deposits of $81.9 million or more will be required to report weekly while nonexempt institutions with total deposits less than $81.9 million may report quarterly, in both cases on form FR 2900. Similarly, exempt institutions with total deposits of $52.6 million or more will be required to report quarterly on form FR 2910q while exempt institutions with total deposits less than $52.6 million may report annually on form FR 2910a. Effective December 1. 1998, 12 C.F.R. Part 204 is amended as follows: Part 204—Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions (Regulation D) 1. The authority citation for Part 204 continues to read as follows: Authority: 12 U.S.C. 248(a), 248(c), 371a, 461, 601, 611, and 3 105. 2. Section 204.9 is revised to read as follows: Section 204.9 Reserve requirement ratios. FINAL RULE—AMENDMENT TO REGULATION D The Board of Governors is amending 12 C.F.R. Part 204, its Regulation D (Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions), to decrease the amount of transaction accounts subject to a reserve requirement ratio of three percent, as required by section 19(b)(2)(C) of the Federal Reserve Act, from $47.8 million to $46.5 million of net transaction accounts. This adjustment is known as the low reserve tranche adjustment. The Board is increasing from $4.7 million to $4.9 million the amount of reserveable liabilities of each depository institution that is subject to a (a) Reserve percentages. The following reserve ratios are prescribed for all depository institutions. Edge and Agreement corporations, and United States branches and agencies of foreign banks: (b) Exemption from reserve requirements. Each depository institution, Edge or agreement corporation, and U.S. branch or agency of a foreign bank is subject to a zero percent reserve requirement on an amount of its transaction accounts subject to the low reserve tranche in paragraph (a) of this section not in excess of $4.9 million determined in accordance with section 204.3(a)(3). 50 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Category Reserve requirements' Net transaction accounts: $0 to $46.5 million over $46.5 million 3 percent of amount Nonpersonal time deposits Eurocurrency liabilities 0 percent 0 percent $1,395,000 plus 10 percent of amount over $46.5 million 1. Before deducting the adjustment to be made by the paragraph (b) of this section. FINAL RULE—AMENDMENT TO REGULATION Y The Board of Governors is amending 12 C.F.R. Part 225, Subpart G of its Regulation Y (Appraisal Standards for Federally Related Transactions), which exempts from the Board's appraisal requirements transactions involving the underwriting or dealing of mortgage-backed securities. This amendment permits bank holding company subsidiaries engaged in underwriting and dealing in securities (socalled section 20 subsidiaries) to underwrite and deal in mortgage-backed securities without demonstrating that the loans underlying the securities are supported by appraisals that meet the Board's appraisal requirements. Effective December 28, 1998, 12 C.F.R. Part 225 is amended as follows: sections 1 l(i) and (k) of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. 248(i) and (k)). Specifically, the Board is revising and expanding the delegation of authority to the Director of Division of Consumer and Community Affairs to include: issuing interpretations under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, adjusting the dollar amount to determine coverage under the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act, adjusting the depository institution exemption threshold under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, making certain determinations under the Community Reinvestment Act regulations, and holding public hearings on financial service issues in keeping with congressional mandates. Effective December 28, 1998, 12 C.F.R. Part 265 is amended as follows: Part 265—Rules Regarding Delegation of Authority 1. The authority citation for Part 265 continues to read as follows: Authority: 12 U.S.C. 248(i) and (k). 2. Section 265.9 is amended by revising paragraphs (a) introductory text, (a)(l), (c)(l), (c)(4), and (c)(5), and adding new paragraphs (a)(8) and (d) through (g). The revisions and additions read as follows: Part 225—Bank Holding Companies and Change in Bank Control (Regulation Y) 1. The authority citation for Part 225 continues to read as follows: Authority: 12 U.S.C. 1817(j)(13), 1818, 1828o, 1831i, 1831p-L 1843(c)(8), 1844(b), 1972(1), 3106, 3108, 3310, 3331-3351,3907, and 3909. 2. In Subpart G, section 225.63 is amended by removing the word " o r " at the end of paragraph (a)(ll), by redesignating paragraph (a)(12) as paragraph (a)(13), and by adding a new paragraph (a)(12) to read as follows: Section 225.63 Appraisals certified or (*\\ ^* ^ (12) required; transactions requiring a State licensed appraiser. ^ The transaction involves underwriting or dealing in mortgage-backed securities; or FINAL RULE—AMENDMENT TO RULES REGARDING DELEGATION OF AUTHORITY The Board of Governors is amending 12 C.F.R. Part 265, its Rules Regarding Delegation of Authority, pursuant to * * * * * Section 265.9 Functions delegated to the Director of Division of Consumer and Community Affairs. (a) Issuing examination manuals, forms, and other materials. To issue examination or inspection manuals; report, agreement, and examination forms; examination procedures, guidelines, instructions, and other similar materials pursuant to: section 11 (a) of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. 248(a)); sections 108(b). 621(c), 704(b), 814(c), and 917(b) of the Consumer Credit Protection Act (15 U.S.C. 1607(b), 1681s(b), 1691c(b), 16921(c) and I693o(b)); section 3O5(c) of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (12 U.S.C. 2804(c)); section 18(f)(3) of the Federal Trade Commission Act (15 U.S.C. 57a(f|(3)); section 8O8(c) of the Civil Rights Act of 1968 (42 U.S.C. 3608(c)); section 270(b) of the Truth in Savings Act (12 U.S.C. 4309); and section 5 of the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956 (12 U.S.C. 1844(c)). The foregoing manuals, forms, and other materials are for use within the Federal Reserve System in the administration of enforcement responsibilities in connection with: (1) Sections 1-200 and 501-921 of the Consumer Credit Protection Act (15 U.S.C. 1601-1693r), in regard to the Truth in Lending Act, the Consumer Leasing Act, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Electronic Fund Transfer Act, the Fair Credit Re- Legal Developments porting Act and the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act; * * * * * (8) Sections 261-274 of the Truth in Savings Act (12 U.S.C. 4301-4313). ORDERS ISSUED UNDER BANK HOLDING ACT 51 COMPANY Orders Issued Under Section 3 of the Bank Holding Company Act CAB Holding, LLC Wilmington, Delaware (c) Determining inconsistencies between state and federal laws. * * * (1) Sections 111, 171 (a) and I86(a) of the Truth in Lending Act (15 U.S.C. 1610(a), 1666j(a), 1667e(a)) and section 226.28 of Regulation Z (12 C.F.R. Part 226) and section 213.7 of Regulation M (12C.F.R. Part 213); (4) Section 3O6(a) of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (12 U.S.C. 2805(a)) and section 203.3 of Regulation C (12 C.F.R. Part 203); and (5) Section 273 of the Truth in Savings Act (12 U.S.C. 4312) and section 230.1 of Regulation DD (12 C.F.R. Part 230). (d) Interpreting the Fair Credit Reporting Act. To issue interpretations pursuant to section 621(e) of the Fair Credit Reporting Act (15 U.S.C. 1681s(e)); (e) Annual adjustments. To adjust as required by law: (1) The amount specified in section 103(aa)(l)(B)(ii) of the Truth in Lending Act and section 226.32(a)(l)(ii) of Regulation Z (12 C.F.R. Part 226), relating to mortgages bearing fees above a certain amount in accord with section IO3(aa)(3) of that act (15 U.S.C. 1602(aa)); and (2) The amount specified in section 309(b)( 1) of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (12 U.S.C. 2808(b)(l)) and section 203.3(a)(l)(ii) of Regulation C (12 C.F.R. Part 203) relating to the asset threshold above which a depository institution must collect and report data. (f) Community Reinvestment Act determinations. To make determinations, pursuant to section 804 of the Community Reinvestment Act (12 U.S.C. 2903), approving or disapproving: (1) Strategic plans and any amendments thereto pursuant to section 228.27(g) and (h) of Regulation BB (12 C.F.R. Part 228); and (2) Requests for designation as a wholesale or limited purpose bank or the revocation of such designation, pursuant to section 228.25(b) of Regulation BB (12 C.F.R. Part 228). (g) Public hearings. To conduct hearings or other proceedings required by law, concerning consumer law or other matters within the responsibilities of the Division of Consumer and Community Affairs, in consultation with other interested divisions of the Board where appropriate. Order Approving Formation of a Bank Holding Company CAB Holding, LLC ("CAB") has requested the Board's approval under section 3(a)(l) of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act") (12 U.S.C. § 1842(a)(l)) to become a bank holding company by acquiring all the voting shares of The Chinese American Bank, New York, New York ("Bank"). Notice of the application, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 12,813 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the application and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 3 of the BHC Act. CAB is a newly formed nonoperating corporation that would become a bank holding company by the acquisition of Bank. Bank is the 122d largest commercial banking organization in New York, with deposits of $188 million, representing less than 1 percent of total deposits in commercial banking organizations in the state.1 Based on all the facts of record, the Board has concluded that consummation of the proposal would not have a significantly adverse effect on competition or on the concentration of banking resources in any relevant banking market and that competitive consideraiions are consistent with approval. Based on all the facts of record, including confidential supervisory information and other information concerning Bank and the sole shareholder of CAB, the Board concludes that considerations relating to the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of CAB and Bank, the convenience and needs of the communities to be served, and other supervisory factors that the Board is required to consider under section 3 of the BHC Act are consistent with approval of the proposal. In addition, the Board has received commitments that ensure the Board's access to information on the operations and activities of CAB and its affiliates, in order to permit the Board to determine and enforce compliance with the BHC Act and other federal banking laws. Based on the foregoing and all the facts of record, the Board has determined that the application should be, and hereby is, approved. The Board's approval is expressly conditioned on compliance with all the commitments made by CAB, Bank, and CAB's sole shareholder in connection with the application. For purposes of this action, the com- 1. Deposit and market data are as of June 30, 1997. CFBanc Holdings, Inc. 52 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 mitments and conditions relied on by the Board in reaching this decision are deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decision and, as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. The proposal shall not be consummated before the fifteenth calendar day after the effective date of this order, or later than three months after the effective date of this order, unless such period is extended for good cause by the Board or by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 30, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan. Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Meyer. Ferguson, and Gramlich. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board CFBanc Holdings, Inc. Washington, D.C. CFBanc Corporation Washington, D.C. Order Approving Formation of Bank Holding Companies and Acquisition of a Bank CFBanc Holdings, Inc. ("Holdings") and CFBanc Corporation ("Corporation") have requested the Board's approval under section 3(a)(l) of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act") (12U.S.C. § 1842(a)(l)) to become bank holding companies by acquiring control of more than 25 percent of the voting shares of City First Bank of D.C, Washington, D.C. ("Bank"), a de novo national bank that will operate with a community development focus.1 Corporation would acquire all of the voting shares of Bank, and Holdings, a nonstock, nonprofit corporation organized under the laws of the District of Columbia, would acquire approximately 48 percent of the voting shares of Corporation.2 1. Bank would engage primarily in lending and other activities designed to promote the welfare of low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and individuals in the District of Columbia. 2. Georgetown University and the National Community Investment Fund ("NCIF"), a community development fund sponsored by Shorebank Corporation, Chicago, Illinois ("Shorebank"). propose to make investments in Corporation. Georgetown University. NCIF. and Shorebank have made a number of commitments, including commitments that the Board has relied on in previous cases, to limit the ability of these companies to exercise a controlling influence over Corporation or Bank. Based on these commitments, the fact that Holdings (which is a company independent of the other investors in Corporation) will control nearly 50 percent of the voting shares of Corporation, the purpose and nature of the activities of Bank, and all the other facts of record, the Board concludes that the facts do not warrant a conclusion at this time that Georgetown, NCIF. or Shorebank would control Corporation or Bank for purposes of the BHC Act. The Board expressly retains its authority to initiate a control proceeding if the facts presented at a later date indicate that any such entity in fact controls Corporation or Bank for purposes of the BHC Act. Notice of the applications, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 29,996 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the applications and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 3 of the BHC Act. Holdings and Corporation are nonoperating corporations formed for the purpose of acquiring control of Bank, a de novo institution.3 The Board previously has noted that the establishment of a de novo bank enhances competition in the relevant banking market and is a positive consideration in an application under section 3 of the BHC Act.4 Accordingly, the Board concludes that consummation of the proposal would not have a significantly adverse effect on competition or on the concentration of banking resources in any relevant banking market and that competitive considerations are consistent with approval. In light of all the facts of record, the Board also concludes that the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of Holdings, Corporation, and Bank, and the other supervisory factors that the Board is required to consider under section 3 of the BHC Act are consistent with approval of the proposal. Bank intends to operate with a community development focus and to seek to increase the availability of credit, capital, and financial services in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and to low- and moderate-income individuals in the District of Columbia. Bank intends to serve the identified credit and banking needs of low-and moderateincome areas in the District of Columbia by offering a range of commercial, real estate, and consumer loans, as well as checking, savings, and other traditional deposit products. In light of Bank's objectives and all other facts of 3. The Federal National Mortgage Association ("Fannie Mae") proposes to acquire up to 4.9 percent of the voting shares and up to 9.9 percent of the total equity of Corporation. Section 18(s) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act ("FDI Act") prohibits depository institutions from being an affiliate of, sponsored by, or accepting financial support directly or indirectly from Fannie Mae or any other Government-sponsored enterprise. 12U.S.C. § 1828(s)(l). Section 18(s)(3), however, permits a Government-sponsored enterprise to provide financial assistance to a depository institution as permitted by the statutes governing the enterprise. See id. at § I828(s)(3). In this case. Fannie Mae has not sponsored and would not be an affiliate of Bank. Fannie Mae also asserts that its purchase of Corporation stock is permissible under section 18(s)(3) of the FDI Act because the proposed investment is authorized under, and consistent with, the purposes of the Fannie Mae Charter Act. See I2U.S.C. §§ 1716, I723a(a); 62 Federal Register 68.060 (1997). Fannie Mae's purchase of a noncontrolling interest in Corporation would increase the resources of Bank available for residential mortgage financing and. thus, appears consistent with the purposes of the Charter Act. See id. at § 1716. The Board notes, moreover, that Bank intends to focus its lending efforts on low- and moderate-income areas, and that Federal law encourages Fannie Mae to assist primary lenders to make housing credit available in areas with concentrations of low-income and minority families. See id. at § 4565(a). In light of all the facts of record, and after consulting with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Board concludes that Fannie Mae's proposed investment in Corporation is permitted under section 13(s)(3) of the FDI Act. 4. See Wilson Bank Holding Company. 82 Federal Reserve Bulletin 568(1996). Legal Developments record, the Board concludes that convenience and needs are consistent with approval of the proposal. Based on the foregoing and all the facts of record, the Board has determined that the applications should be, and hereby are, approved. The Board's approval is expressly conditioned on compliance by all relevant parties with the commitments made in connection with the applications. For purposes of this action, the commitments and conditions relied on by the Board in reaching this decision are deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decision, and as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. The transaction shall not be consummated before the fifteenth calendar day following the effective date of this order, or later than three months following the effective date of this order, unless such periods are extended for good cause by the Board or by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 9, 1998. Voting for this action: Vice Chair Rivlin and Governors Kelley, Meyer, Ferguson, and Gramlich. Absent and not voting: Chairman Greenspan. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board City Holding Company Charleston, West Virginia Order Approving the Acquisition of a Bank Holding Company City Holding Company ("Applicant"), a bank holding company within the meaning of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act"), has requested the Board's approval under section 3 of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. § 1842) to acquire Horizon Bancorp, Inc., Beckley, West Virginia ("Horizon Bancorp"), and its wholly owned subsidiary banks, Bank of Raleigh, Beckley; First National Bank in Marlinton, Marlinton; Greenbrier Valley National Bank, Lewisburg; National Bank of Summers, Hinton; and The Twentieth Street Bank, Huntington, all in West Virginia. Notice of the proposal, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 54,712 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the proposal and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 3 of the BHC Act. Applicant is the sixth largest depository institution in West Virginia, controlling approximately $916.9 million in deposits, representing approximately 4.8 percent of total deposits in depository institutions in the state ("state deposits"). 1 Horizon Bancorp is the seventh largest depository institution in West Virginia, controlling approximately ]. State and market data are as of June 30. 1997, and are updated for merger activity as of October 23, 1998. 53 $831.8 million in deposits, representing 4.4 percent of state deposits. On consummation of the proposal, and accounting for the proposed divestitures, Applicant would be the fourth largest depository institution in West Virginia, controlling approximately $1.65 billion in deposits in the state, representing approximately 8.7 percent of state deposits. Competitive Considerations The BHC Act prohibits the Board from approving an application under section 3 of the BHC Act if the proposal would result in a monopoly or would be in furtherance of any attempt to monopolize the business of banking. The BHC Act also prohibits the Board from approving a proposed combination that would substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly in any relevant banking market, unless the Board finds that the anticompetitive effects of the proposal are clearly outweighed in the public interest by the probable effect of the proposal in meeting the convenience and needs of the community to be served.2 Applicant and Horizon Bancorp compete directly in four banking markets in West Virginia: Beckley, Charleston, Greenbrier and Huntington.3 The Board has carefully reviewed the competitive effects of the proposal in these banking markets in light of all the facts of record, including the number of competitors that would remain in the markets, the characteristics of the markets, and the projected increase in the concentration of total deposits in depository institutions in the markets ("market deposits") 4 as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirshman Index ("HHI") under the Department of Justice Merger Guidelines ("DOJ Guidelines"). 5 Consummation of the proposal without divestitures would be consistent with the DOJ Guidelines and prior Board decisions in the Huntington and Charleston, banking markets.6 To mitigate the potential anticompetitive effects of the proposal in the Greenbrier banking market, Applicant has 2. 12 U.S.C. § I842(c). 3. The banking markets are described in Appendix A. 4. Market share data are based on calculations that include the deposits of thrift institutions at 50 percent. The Board previously has indicated that thrift institutions have become, or have the potential to become, significant competitors of commercial banks. See. e.g., Midwest Financial Group, 75 Federal Reserve Bulletin 386 (1989); National City Corporation, 70 Federal Reserve Bulletin 743 (1984). Thus, the Board has regularly included thrift deposits in the calculation of market share on a 50-percent weighted basis. See, e.g.. First Hawaiian Inc.. 11 Federal Reserve Bulletin 52 (1991). 5. Under DOJ Guidelines. 49 Federal Register 26,823 (1984), a market in which the post-merger HHI is more than 1800 is considered highly concentrated. The Department of Justice has informed the Board that a bank merger or acquisition generally will not be challenged (in the absence of other factors indicating anticompetitive effects) unless the post-merger HHI is at least 1800 and the merger increases the HHI by more than 200 points. The Justice Department has stated that the higher than normal HHI thresholds for screening bank mergers for anticompetitive effects implicitly recognize the competitive effects of limited-purpose lenders and other nondepository financial institutions. 6. Market data for these banking markets after consummation of the proposal are described in Appendix B. 54 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 committed to divest one branch that controls approximately $37.8 million in deposits in the market.7 With the proposed divestitures, the concentration levels in the Greenbrier banking market as measured by the HHI would be consistent with the DOJ Guidelines after consummation of the proposal. The HHI would increase by approximately 88 points to not more than 2529, and five competitors would remain in the Greenbrier banking market. Applicant is the fifth largest commercial banking organization in the Beckley banking market, controlling deposits of $109.8 million, representing 8.8 percent of market deposits. Horizon Bancorp is the largest in the market, controlling $361.1 million of deposits, representing 29 percent of total market deposits. Applicant has committed to divest one branch that controls approximately $57 million in deposits and that represents approximately 4.6 percent of the market deposits. On consummation of the proposal and divestiture, Applicant would be the largest depository institution in the market, controlling $413.9 million in deposits, representing approximately 33.3 percent of market deposits. The post-merger HHI would increase by not more than 208 points to not more than 2132. Consummation of the transaction with the proposed divestiture would exceed the DOJ Guidelines, in the Beckley banking market. As the Board has indicated in previous cases, in a market in which the competitive effects of a proposal exceed the DOJ Guidelines, the Board will consider whether other factors tend to mitigate the competitive effects of the proposal. The number and strength of factors necessary to mitigate competitive effects depend on the level of market concentration and size of the increase in market concentration.8 The Beckley banking market has characteristics that make it attractive for entry when compared to similar counties in West Virginia.'' For example, from 1994 to 1997, the increase in population in the Beckley banking market was three times larger than the increase in population in comparable counties. In addition, the average number of residents per branch and amount of deposits per branch in the banking market exceeded those statistics for 7. With respect to each divestiture. Applicant has committed to execute a sales agreement for the proposed divestiture with a new market entrant prior to consummation of the proposal, and to complete the divestiture within 180 days of consummation. Applicant also has committed that, in the event it is unsuccessful in completing the divestiture within 180 days of consummation, it will transfer the unsold branch to an independent trustee that is acceptable to the Board and will instruct the trustee to sell the branch promptly to one or more alternative purchasers acceptable to the Board. See BankAmerica Corporation, 78 Federal Reseire Bulletin 338 (1992); United New Mexico Financial Corporation. 11 Federal Reserve Bulletin 484 (1991). In the Beckley banking market. Applicant has committed that the purchaser of the divested branch of a one-branch bank would be given the option of retaining the name of that bank. 8. See, e.g.. First Union Corporation, 84 Federal Reserve Bulletin 489 (1998): NationsBank Corporation. 84 Federal Reserve Bulletin 129(1998). 9. Beckley is not a Metropolitan Statistical Area ("MSA"). Accordingly, the market characteristics of the Beckley banking market were compared with other non-MSA counties in West Virginia. comparable counties in West Virginia. The entry of a commercial bank de novo in 1995 also appears to confirm the attractiveness of the Beckley banking market. The proposed divestiture of approximately 4.6 percent of market deposits to an out-of-market commercial banking organization would create another market entrant, and the number of depository institutions competing in the market would remain unchanged at nine competitors. These competitors include three large national and regional banking organizations that each have significant market shares. The Department of Justice has conducted a detailed review of the proposal and has advised the Board that, in light of the proposed divestitures, consummation of the proposal would not likely have a significantly adverse effect on competition in any relevant banking market. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the West Virginia Commissioner of Banking also have been afforded an opportunity to comment and have not objected to consummation of the proposal. After carefully reviewing all the facts of record and for the reasons discussed in this order and appendices, the Board concludes that consummation of the proposal would not likely result in any significantly adverse effects on competition or on the concentration of banking markets in the Beckley, Charleston, Greenbrier and Huntington banking markets where Applicant and Horizon Bancorp compete or in any other relevant banking market. Accordingly, based on all of the facts of record and subject to completion of the proposed divestitures, the Board has determined that the competitive factor is consistent with approval of the proposal. Other Factors Under the BHC Act The BHC Act also requires the Board, in acting on an application, to consider the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of the companies and banks involved in a proposal, the convenience and needs of the community to be served, and certain other supervisory factors.10 The Board has carefully considered the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of Applicant and Horizon Bancorp, and their respective subsidiary banks, and other supervisory factors in light of all the facts of record. As part of this consideration, the Board has reviewed relevant reports of examination and other supervisory information prepared by the Reserve Banks and other 10. A commenter has asserted that First National Bank in Marlinton ("Bank") is the subject of several lawsuits as a result of its business relationships with local public agencies. There have been no adjudications of wrongdoing by Bank in these proceedings, and each matter is before a forum that can provide adequate remedies if the allegations of wrongdoing can be sustained. Commenter also alleges, without providing any supporting information, that Bank is under investigation for the misuse of federal and state grants. In reviewing this case, the Board has contacted and considered the views of federal banking agencies and the Department of Justice. Legal Developments federal agencies. The Board notes that the bank holding companies and their subsidiary banks currently are well capitalized and are expected to remain so after consummation of the proposal. The Board also has considered other aspects of the financial condition and resources of the two organizations, the structure of the proposed transaction, and the managerial resources of each of the entities and the combined organization. Based on these and other facts of record, the Board concludes that considerations relating to the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of Applicant, Horizon Bancorp, and their respective subsidiaries are consistent with approval of the proposal, as are the other supervisory factors that the Board must consider under section 3 of the BHC Act. The Board has carefully considered the effect of the proposed acquisition on the convenience and needs of the community to be served in light of all the facts of record. All of Applicant's and Horizon's subsidiary banks have received "outstanding" or "satisfactory" ratings from their appropriate federal supervisors at the most recent examinations of their performance under the Community Reinvestment Act ("CRA") (12 U.S.C. § 2901 etseq.). Based on all the facts of record, including the CRA performance records of the subsidiary banks of Applicant and Horizon Bancorp, the Board concludes that convenience and needs considerations are consistent with approval of the proposal. Conclusion Based on the foregoing, and in light of all the facts of record, the Board has determined that the application should be, and hereby is, approved. Approval of the application is specifically conditioned on compliance by Applicant with all the commitments made in connection with the proposal and with the conditions stated or referred to in this order, including Applicant's divestiture commitments. For purposes of this transaction, the commitments and conditions referred to in this order shall be deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decision and, as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. The acquisition shall not be consummated before the fifteenth calendar day after the effective date of this order, and the proposal shall not be consummated later than three months after the effective date of this order, unless such period is extended for good cause by the Board or by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 30, 1998. 55 Appendix A The Beckley, West Virginia, banking market is defined as the Beckley Ranally Metro Area ("RMA") and includes the town of Whitesville in Boone County, the remainder of Raleigh County, Summers County, and the portion of Fayette County that excludes the towns of Montgomery and Smithers. The Charleston, West Virginia, banking market is defined as the Charleston, West Virginia, RMA and includes the remainders of Kanawha and Putman Counties, and the towns of Montgomery and Smithers in Fayette County. The Greenbrier, West Virginia, banking market is defined as Greenbrier County, West Virginia. The Huntington banking market is defined as Huntington, West Virginia-Kentucky-Ohio RMA and the remainder of Boyd County, Kentucky; Lawrence County, Ohio; and Cabell and Wayne Counties, West Virginia. Appendix B In the Charleston, West Virginia, banking market applicant would control 13.8 percent of market deposits and would remain the second largest depository institution in the market after consummation of the proposal. The HHI would increase by 34 points to 1841. In the Huntington, West Virginia, banking market applicant would control 9.3 percent of the market deposits and would become the second largest depository institution in the market after consummation of the proposal. The HHI would increase by 25 points to 636. Peoples Heritage Financial Group, Inc. Portland, Maine Order Approving Acquisition of a Bank Holding Company Peoples Heritage Financial Group, Inc., Portland, Maine ("Peoples"), a bank holding company within the meaning of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act"), and its wholly owned subsidiary, Peoples Heritage Merger Corp., Portland, Maine ("Peoples Merger"), have requested the Board's approval under section 3 of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. § 1842) to merge with SIS Bancorp, Inc., Springfield, Massachusetts ("SIS"), and to acquire the subsidiary banks of SIS, Springfield Institution for Savings, Springfield, Massachusetts ("SIS Bank"), and Glastonbury Bank & Trust Company, Glastonbury, Connecticut ("Glastonbury Bank"). 1 Notice of the proposal, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 54,140 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan. Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Meyer, Ferguson, and Gramlich. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board 1. Peoples also has requested Board approval to hold and exercise options to acquire up to 19.9 percent of the voting shares of SIS, if certain events occur. The options would not be exercised if the merger is consummated. 56 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 proposal and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 3 of the BHC Act. Peoples, with total consolidated assets of approximately $9.8 billion, operates depository institutions in Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts.2 Peoples is the tenth largest depository institution in Massachusetts, controlling deposits of approximately $1 billion in the state, representing less than 1 percent of total deposits in insured depository institutions in the state ("state deposits'"). SIS, with total consolidated assets of approximately $1.8 billion, operates depository institutions in Massachusetts and Connecticut. SIS is the ninth largest depository institution in Massachusetts, controlling deposits of approximately $1.1 billion in that state, representing less than 1 percent of state deposits. On consummation of the proposal, Peoples would be the eighth largest depository organization in Massachusetts, controlling deposits of $2.1 billion, representing 1.8 percent of state deposits. Interstate Analysis Section 3(d) of the BHC Act allows the Board to approve an application by a bank holding company to acquire control of a bank located in a state other than the home state of the bank holding company if certain conditions are met.3 For purposes of the BHC Act, the home state of Peoples is Maine, and SIS controls banks in Massachusetts and Connecticut.4 All the conditions for an interstate acquisition enumerated in section 3(d) are met in this case.5 In view of all the facts of record, the Board is permitted to approve the proposal under section 3(d) of the BHC Act. Competitive, Financial and Managerial Considerations Peoples and SIS do not compete in any banking market. Based on all the facts of record, the Board concludes that consummation of the proposal would not result in a monopoly or have a significantly adverse effect on competition in any relevant banking market. 2. Asset and deposit data are as of June 30, 1998. unless otherwise noted. 3. See 12U.S.C. § 1842(d). 4. A bank holding company's home state is that state in which the operation of the bank holding company's banking subsidiaries were principally conducted on July 1, 1966, or the date on which the company became a bank holding company, whichever is later. 12U.S.C. § 1841(o)(4)(C). 5. See 12U.S.C. §§ 1842(d)(l)(A) and (B) and 1842(d)(2)(A) and (B). Peoples is adequately capitalized and adequately managed, as defined in the BHC Act, and the subsidiary banks of SIS have been in existence and operated for the minimum periods of time necessary to satisfy age requirements established by applicable state law. See Mass. Gen. Laws Ann. ch. I67A, § 2 (West 1998) (three years); Conn. Gen. Stat. Ann. § 36a-412 (West 1998) (five years). Peoples also would not exceed applicable state law deposit limitations as calculated under state law. On consummation of the proposal. Peoples would control less than 10 percent of the total amount of deposits in insured depository institutions in the United States. All other requirements of section 3(d) of the BHC Act also would be met on consummation of the proposal. The BHC Act also requires the Board, in acting on an application, to consider the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of the companies and banks involved, and other supervisory factors. The Board has reviewed these factors in light of the record, including supervisory reports of examination assessing the financial and managerial resources of the organizations and financial information provided by Peoples. Based on all the facts of record, the Board concludes that the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of Peoples, SIS, and their respective subsidiary banks are consistent with approval, as are other supervisory factors the Board must consider under section 3 of the BHC Act. Convenience and Needs Considerations In acting on a proposal under section 3 of the BHC Act, the Board is required to consider the effect of the proposal on the convenience and needs of the community to be served. The Board has carefully reviewed the effect of the proposal on the convenience and needs of the communities to be served in light of all the facts of record, including comments submitted on the proposal.6 The Board has long held that consideration of the convenience and needs factor includes a review of the records of the relevant depository institutions under the Community Reinvestment Act (12 U.S.C. § 2901 et seq.) ("CRA"). As provided in the CRA, the Board has evaluated this factor in light of examinations by the primary federal supervisors of the CRA performance records of the relevant institutions. An institution's most recent CRA performance evaluation is a particularly important consideration in the applications process because it represents a detailed on-site evaluation of the institution's overall record of performance under the CRA by its primary federal supervisor.7 All the insured depository institutions controlled by Peoples received "outstanding" or "satisfactory" CRA performance ratings in their most recent CRA examination by their primary federal supervisor: Family Bank, FSB, Haverhill, Massachusetts ("Family FSB"), received an "outstanding" rating from the Office of Thrift Supervision ("OTS"), as of July 28, 1997; Peoples Heritage Savings Bank, Portland, Maine, received an "outstanding" rating from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"), as of April 8, 1996; and Bank of New Hampshire received a "satisfactory" rating from the FDIC, as of January 17, 1995. 6. The Board received a comment letter signed by several community groups ("commenters") which expressed concern that the acquisition of SIS by Peoples would adversely affect the positive impact SIS has had on the Springfield, Massachusetts, community. Commenters favorably noted some current programs of Peoples, but expressed concern about the record of Peoples in meeting the residential lending needs of low- and moderate-income and minority borrowers. 7. The Statement of the Federal Financial Supervisory Agencies Regarding the Community Reinvestment Act provides that a CRA examination is an important and often controlling factor in the consideration of an institution's CRA record and that reports of these examinations will be given great weight in the applications process. 54 Federal Register 13,742 and 13,745 (1989). Legal Developments In reviewing this case, the Board has paid particular attention to the record of performance of Family FSB in helping to meet the convenience and needs of the community because Peoples proposes to merge SIS Bank into Family FSB. 8 In its most recent CRA examination of Family FSB, examiners noted that Family FSB offered a full range of residential, commercial, and consumer loans. Examiners commented favorably on the institution's nofee checking accounts, telephone banking services, and an electronic banking card program for social security and public assistance income distribution. Examiners also noted that Family FSB's services were readily accessible and tailored to the convenience of all segments of its assessment area. Examiners stated that all of the institution's branches offered automated teller machines ("ATMs") and 16 of the institution's 21 full-service retail offices offered extended hours at drive-through facilities. Peoples also indicates that it maintains full-service branches operated by students at local high schools to provide business training opportunities for the students. Examiners stated that, according to data reported for 1995 pursuant to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (12 U.S.C. § 2801 et seq.) ("HMDA"), Family FSB originated a substantially higher percentage of residential loans to low- and moderate-income ("LMI") borrowers than the aggregate average percentage for all HMDA lenders in the area. Based on 1995 HMDA data, Family FSB made more than 400 residential loans, totaling more than $25 million, to LMI borrowers. Examiners particularly noted that the institution met many low-income lending needs through special credit programs with flexible debt-to-income ratios, down payment assistance, government guarantees, and mortgage insurance. Examiners stated that Family FSB significantly enhanced efforts to promote home ownership for low-income borrowers through the institution's Community Outreach Program and its participation in first-time home buyer and down payment assistance programs offered by community groups, government agencies, and secondary market sources.9 Examiners also stated that Family FSB's residential loan originations were substantially concentrated in its assessment area from January 1, 1995, to July 31, 1997. Examiners noted that Family FSB participated in affordable housing programs sponsored by 8. Immediately after consummation of the merger of SIS into Peoples Merger, Peoples anticipates that SIS Bank would merge with and into Family FSB. The merger of SIS Bank into Family FSB is subject to the prior approval of the OTS under the Bank Merger Act. 9. Peoples states that, as part of its Community Outreach Program, Family FSB offers mortgages with special terms for LMI borrowers, including an adjustable rate mortgage with discounted pricing based on the borrower's income level compared with the median income of the area, with the most favorable pricing reserved for borrowers earning less than 50 percent of the area's median income level: permitting up to 2 percent of the required 5 percent down payment to come from a gift, grant, or Family FSB unsecured loan with no interest for applicants earning less than 60 percent of the area's median income; and flexible requirements for debt-to-income ratios. Peoples also states that more than $6 million in mortgage loans have been made through its Community Outreach Program since the program began in late 1994. 57 government agencies such as the Massachusetts Housing Finance Authority ("MHFA"), the Federal Housing Administration ("FHA"), and the Department of Veterans Affairs ("VA"). Peoples states that the majority of the mortgage loans originated in 1997 by Family FSB were to borrowers earning less than the median income of the assessment area and 36 percent of mortgage loans were to borrowers earning less than 80 percent of the median income. Examiners noted that Family FSB made almost 500 loans, totaling more than $84 million, to small businesses in its assessment area from January 1, 1996, to July 31, 1997. Examiners noted that these loans represented more than 60 percent of Family FSB's commercial loans and more than 90 percent of the institution's small business loans. Moreover, examiners stated that Family FSB made 80 small business loans, totaling more than $12 million, in LMI census tracts. Peoples states that, in cooperation with the North Quabbin Community Advisory Board, Family FSB made loans totaling more than $250,000 pursuant to a $1 million commitment to a small business loan pool since the pool was established in June 1998. Peoples also states that Family FSB has been designated a "Preferred Lender" by the Small Business Administration. Examiners stated that, from January 1, 1996, to July 31, 1997, Family FSB made 28 loans, totaling more than $5 million, to organizations in its assessment area that supported affordable housing, economic and community development, and neighborhood stabilization. Examiners also noted that, of these loans, almost 40 percent by number and more than 30 percent by dollar amount were made in LMI census tracts. Examiners favorably commented on the more than $2 million in investments in community development organizations made by Family FSB during the examination period, including investments in lowincome housing limited partnerships, small business loan funds, and programs for housing rehabilitation. Peoples states that, in 1996 and 1997, Family FSB made grants and donations of more than $200,000 to organizations such as The United Way, Merrimack Valley Housing Partnership, Worcester County Food Bank, Worcester East Side CDC, and the North County Land Trust. Examiners also noted that the institution's management and officers contributed financial expertise to a significant number of community organizations and programs, including affordable housing development and rehabilitation corporations, credit and home ownership counseling agencies, job training and placement services for low-income individuals, and financial intermediaries that lend to small businesses in LMI areas. SIS Bank received an "outstanding" rating from the FDIC at its most recent CRA examination, as of September 22, 1997.10 Glastonbury Bank received a "satisfacto- 10. For purposes of CRA, the assessment area of SIS Bank consists of the Springfield, Massachusetts. Metropolitan Statistical Area ("MSA") and some contiguous towns in the same census tracts as towns located in the Springfield MSA. 58 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 ry" rating from the FDIC at its most recent CRA examination, as of August 26, 1996. Examiners noted that, based on 1995 HMDA data, SIS Bank was the market leader in its assessment area with 8.7 percent by number and 11 percent by dollar amount of the HMDA loans reported in the assessment area. Examiners also noted that, based on 1996 HDMA data, SIS Bank made almost 50 HMDA loans, totaling more than $2.7 million, in LMI census tracts and 250 HMDA loans, totaling more than $14 million, to LMI borrowers. Examiners stated that, during 1996, SIS Bank made more than 80 home equity loans, totaling more than $2 million, in LMI census tracts and more than 470 home equity loans, totaling more than $12 million, to LMI borrowers. Examiners commented favorably on the innovative and flexible lending programs offered by SIS Bank, many of which were focused on first-time home buyers in LMI areas. Examiners noted that, in 1996, SIS Bank made approximately $1.5 million in mortgage loans under its Soft Seconds Program which provides LMI borrowers with two mortgages; the second mortgage is subsidized with public funds and provides for significantly reduced payments during the first nine years of the loan. Examiners also stated that, during 1996, SIS Bank made 38 mortgage loans, totaling more than $2.7 million, under a program sponsored by the MHFA to assist first-time home buyers that includes a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at below market interest rates with low down payment requirements and flexible underwriting guidelines. Examiners also noted that, in 1996, SIS Bank made 21 mortgage loans, totaling more than $2 million, in a VA mortgage program that provides 100 percent financing to eligible veterans. Examiners stated that, in 1996, SIS Bank made more than 260 commercial loans, totaling more than $ 10 million, in amounts equal to or less than $100,000, representing more than 60 percent by number of the commercial loans made by SIS Bank during the period. Examiners also noted that 65 percent of commercial loans made by SIS Bank with original balances of $1 million or less during the period were originated to businesses with gross annual revenues of $1 million or less. Examiners stated that the number and distribution of SIS Bank's branches provided reasonable access to the bank's services by everyone living in the bank's assessment area. Examiners noted that most of the bank's branches offered extended operating hours. Examiners stated that SIS Bank employed numerous bilingual individuals who could provide translation services. Examiners also noted that SIS Bank offered several free deposit products, such as basic checking, statement savings, and unlimited usage of proprietary and nonproprietary ATMs. Peoples states that, after consummation of the proposed merger, the combined organization would continue to offer many of the consumer products and services offered by SIS, including a checking account with no minimum balance, no monthly service charges, and no transaction limits; home equity loan and credit lines; relationship checking packages, which provide enhanced deposit rates and reduced fee structures; certificates of deposit with flexible interest rate terms; and telephone banking services. Peo ples also states that no branch closings or consolidations are anticipated in connection with the proposed merger. The Board has carefully considered the lending records of Family FSB and SIS Bank in light of comments on the 1996 and 1997 data reported by the institutions pursuant to the HMDA. The data for 1996 and 1997 generally show that Family FSB and SIS Bank have assisted in meeting the credit needs of the communities they served with respect to HMDA-related loans, including the credit needs of minority and LMI borrowers and borrowers in LMI census tracts. The Board has carefully considered the data in light of other information, including examination reports that provide an on-site evaluation of the compliance by Family FSB and SIS Bank with the fair lending laws and the overall lending and community development activities of the banks. The examinations revealed no evidence of prohibited or illegal credit practices at Family FSB and SIS Bank, and the institutions were in compliance with the substantive provisions of antidiscrimination laws and regulations, including the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Fair Housing Act, and the HMDA. Peoples states that Family FSB conducts annual CRA and fair lending training for all employees. The Board has carefully considered all the facts of record, including the comments received, responses to those comments, and the CRA performance record of Family FSB and SIS Bank, including relevant reports of examination and other supervisory information. Based on a review of the entire record and for the reasons discussed above, the Board concludes that convenience and needs considerations, including the CRA records of performance of the institutions involved, are consistent with approval of the proposal. Conclusion Based on all the facts of record, and for the reasons discussed above, the Board has determined that the application should be, and hereby is, approved. The Board's decision is specifically conditioned on compliance with all the commitments made in the application. The commitments relied on in reaching this decision shall be deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decision and, as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. The acquisition of SIS may not be consummated before the fifteenth calendar day after the effective date of this order, and the proposal may not be consummated later than three months after the effective date of this order, unless such period is extended for good cause by the Board or by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 4, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan, Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Ferguson, and Gramlich. Absent and not voting: Governor Meyer. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board Legal Developments Popular, Inc. Hato Rey, Puerto Rico Banco Popular de Puerto Rico Hato Rey, Puerto Rico Popular Transition Bank Hato Rey, Puerto Rico Banco Popular, New York New York, New York Order Approving the Acquisition of Banks, Merger of Banks, Establishment of Branches and an Agency, and Membership in the Federal Reserve System Popular, Inc., Hato Rey, Puerto Rico ("Popular"), a bank holding company within the meaning of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act"), and its subsidiaries propose to reorganize their holdings in a manner that requires the Board's approval under section 3 of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. § 1842) and section I8(c) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)) ("Bank Merger Act"). As part of this proposal. Popular would reorganize its banking operations under two de novo banks, one organized under the laws of Puerto Rico and the other organized under the laws of New York, that propose to become members of the Federal Reserve System pursuant to sections 9 and 19(h) of the Federal Reserve Act ("FRA") (12 U.S.C. §§ 321 and 466). The Puerto Rican de novo bank. Popular Transition Bank, Hato Rey, Puerto Rico ("New Banco Popular"), also proposes to operate a branch and agency in the United States pursuant to section 7(d) of the International Banking Act ("IBA") (12 U.S.C. § 3IO5(d)),' and to establish three agreement corporations pursuant to section 25 of the FRA.2 Notice of the proposal, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 52,273 (1998)).3 As required by the Bank Merger Act, reports on the competitive effects of the merger were requested from the U.S. Attorney General, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ("OCC"), and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The time for riling comments has expired, and the Board has considered the applications and notices and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in the Bank Merger Act, the BHC Act, the FRA, and the IBA. Popular, the top-tier parent holding company of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico. Hato Rey, Puerto Rico ("Banco Popular"), has total consolidated assets of approximately 1. For purposes of the application under the IBA, New Banco Popular is considered a "foreign bank" as defined in section l(b)(7) of the IBA. See 12 U.S.C. §3101(7). 2. The applications filed with the Board in connection with the proposed reorganization are listed in the Appendix. 3. Notices of the various applications submitted in connection with the proposal were also published in newspapers of general circulation in the relevant communities. 59 $20 billion and total consolidated deposits of approximately $12 billion.4 Banco Popular, with total consolidated assets of approximately $16 billion, is the largest commercial banking organization in Puerto Rico, controlling total consolidated deposits of approximately $8 billion, representing approximately 35 percent of total deposits in Puerto Rico.5 Banco Popular has approximately 200 branches in Puerto Rico, as well as branches in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. Banco Popular's U.S. banking operations include branches in New York State and an agency in Chicago, Illinois (the "Chicago Agency"). In addition to Banco Popular, Popular controls nine insured depository institutions in California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, and Texas. As part of the reorganization, Popular proposes to merge certain of its current U.S. banking operations into a single state-chartered bank, Banco Popular, New York ("Banco Popular-New York"). Popular also proposes to transfer Banco Popular's current operations in Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands, and a proposed state-licensed branch in New York, New York (the "New NY Branch"), and the Chicago Agency (collectively, the "Purchased Operations"), to New Banco Popular. Both Banco Popular-New York and New Banco Popular have requested approval to become members of the Federal Reserve System.6 Interstate Analysis Under the proposal, Banco Popular-New York would operate branches in its home state of New York and in California, Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey at locations where the bank's predecessors currently operate branches.7 Under section 9 of the FRA and section 44 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act ("FDI Act"), a state member bank may acquire and operate branches outside the bank's home state provided certain conditions are met.8 None of the home 4. Asset and deposit data are as of June 30, 1998. unless otherwise noted. In September 1998, Popular received approval under the BHC Act to acquire First State Bank of Southern California, Sante Fe Springs, California, and Bronson-Gore Bancorp, and thereby acquire its subsidiary banks, Bronson-Gore Bank, Prospect Heights, Illinois; Irving Bank, Chicago, Illinois; and Water Tower Bank, Chicago, Illinois. Popular consummated these acquisitions on October 31. 1998. 5. Banco Popular deposit data and ranking are as of June 30, 1997. 6. New Banco Popular proposes to continue to operate branches in Puerto Rico at locations where Banco Popular currently operates branches. 7. The following insured depository institutions would be merged into Banco Popular-New York: Banco Popular, N.A. (California). City of Commerce, California; First State Bank of Southern California. Santa Fe Springs, California; Banco Popular, N.A. (Florida). Sanford. Florida; Banco Popular, Illinois, Irving Bank, and Water Tower Bank, all of Chicago, Illinois; and Bronson-Gore Bank, Prospect Heights, Illinois. In addition, Popular proposes to merge Banco Popular, F.S.B., Newark, New Jersey ("BP-FSB"), into Banco Popular-New York through a series of steps that require approval under section 5(d)(3) of the FDI Act (12 U.S.C. § 1815(d)(3)). All the factors under section 5(d)(3) of the FDI Act are met in this proposal. 8. See 12 U.S.C. §§ 321 and 1831u. Section 9 of the FRA governs the locations where a bank that is or becomes a state member bank 60 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 states of the depository institutions involved in the proposed depository institution mergers have enacted laws that prohibit the proposed mergers. 9 In addition, the Board has determined that each bank involved in the proposal would be adequately capitalized and adequately managed on consummation of the transaction, and that all other applicable conditions of section 9 of the FRA and section 44 of the FDI Act are met by this proposal.10 Popular has notified the relevant state authorities in New York, California, Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey of its proposal to consolidate banking operations and provided a copy of its Bank Merger Act application to all the relevant state agencies. Representatives from all the states involved in the proposal have indicated that this transaction would comply with their state laws on interstate bank mergers. In light of the foregoing, it appears that the proposal complies with the interstate banking requirements of section 9 of the FRA and section 44 of the FDI Act.'' Under section 5(a)(7) of the IBA, a foreign bank, with the approval of the Board, may establish an agency outside its home state, provided the establishment and operation of the agency is expressly permitted by the state in which the agency is to be established.12 For purposes of the IBA, New Banco Popular's home state would be New York, and New Banco Popular proposes to operate the Chicago Agency as an agency of the bank. After a review of section 5 of the IBA and the relevant state law of Illinois, the Board has determined that New Banco Popular may operate the Chicago Agency at this location, subject to the condition that New Banco Popular also receive the approval of the OCC. Other Factors In reviewing this proposal under the FRA, the Bank Merger Act and section 3 of the BHC Act, the Board has considered the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of the companies and banks involved, the convenience and needs of the communities to be served, and certain supervisory factors. The Board has reviewed these factors in light of the facts of record, including supervisory reports of examination assessing the financial and managerial resources of the organizations and financial information provided by Popular. The Board notes that the resulting institutions would be well-capitalized on consummation of the proposal. Based on all the facts of record, the Board concludes that the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of the holding compa- may establish and operate branches. That section incorporates the restrictions contained in section 44 of the FDI Act. Section 44 also governs branches that may be acquired by any state member bank in an interstate merger transaction. 9. See Cal. Fin. Code § 3824 (West 1998); Fla. Stat. Ann. § 658.2953 (West 1998); 205 111. Comp. Stat. Ann. 5/21.1 (West 1998); and N.J. Stat. Ann. § 17:9A-133.1 (West 1998). \0.See 12U.S.C. § 1831u(b). 11. All the conditions for an interstate acquisition enumerated in section 3(d) of the BHC Act also would be met in this case. 12. See 12U.S.C. § 31O3(a)(7) nies and their subsidiaries are consistent with approval, as are the other supervisory factors the Board must consider under the FRA, the Bank Merger Act and section 3 of the BHC Act. In considering the convenience and needs factor, the Board reviewed the records of the relevant depository institutions under the Community Reinvestment Act ("CRA"). 13 As provided in the CRA, the Board has evaluated this factor in light of examinations by the primary federal supervisors of the relevant institutions. All the insured depository institutions controlled by Popular received "outstanding" or "satisfactory" CRA performance ratings in their most recent CRA examinations by their primary federal supervisors. Based on a review of the entire record, the Board concludes that convenience and needs considerations, including the CRA performance records of the institutions involved, are consistent with approval of the proposal. The Board also considered the competitive effects of the proposal as required by the Bank Merger Act and section 3 of the BHC Act. Based on all the facts of record, including the fact that this transaction is a corporate reorganization, the Board concludes that consummation of the proposal would not have a significantly adverse effect on competition or on the concentration of banking resources in any relevant banking market. Accordingly, the Board concludes that competitive considerations are consistent with approval. In addition, the Board has considered the factors it is required to evaluate under the IBA for New Banco Popular to operate the Chicago Agency and the New NY Branch. New Banco Popular would engage directly in the business of banking outside the United States through its banking operations in Puerto Rico and elsewhere. Popular has provided the Board with the information necessary to assess the application through submissions that address the relevant issues. In addition, New Banco Popular would be subject to comprehensive consolidated supervision by the appropriate federal and Puerto Rican bank supervisory agencies. The Board also has determined that the other standards required by the IBA are met in this case and that all factors under section 25 of the FRA are consistent with approval. Conclusion Based on the foregoing, including the commitments made to the Board by Popular and its subsidiaries in connection with these applications and notices, and in light of all the facts of record, the Board has determined that these applications and notices should be, and hereby are, approved. The Board's approval is specifically conditioned on compliance by the applicants with all commitments made in connection with these applications and notices and the conditions discussed in this order. 13. 12U.S.C. § 2901 etseq. Legal Developments The acquisition and merger of Popular's subsidiary banks shall not be consummated before the fifteenth calendar day following the effective date of this order or later than three months following the effective date of this order, unless such period is extended for good cause by the Board or by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 16, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan, Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Meyer, Ferguson, and Gramlich. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board Appendix Applications and Notices Submitted to the Board in connection with the Reorganization of Popular, Inc. (1) Membership of New Banco Popular in the Federal Reserve System under section 19(h) of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. § 466). (2) Membership of Banco Popular-New York in the Federal Reserve System under section 9 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. § 321). (3) Acquisition by Popular and its intermediate holding companies of control of Banco Popular-New York under section 3(a)(3) of the Bank Holding Company Act (12 U.S.C. § 1842(a)(3)). (4) Acquisition by Popular and its intermediate holding companies of control of New Banco Popular under section 3(a)(3) of the Bank Holding Company Act (12 U.S.C. § 1842(a)(3)). (5) Retention of ownership by Popular and its intermediate holding companies, under section 3(a)(3) of the Bank Holding Company Act, of Banco Popular, F.S.B., after its conversion from a federal savings association to a national banking association (12 U.S.C. § 1842(a)(3)). (6) Acquisition by Banco Popular North America, Inc. of control of Banco Popular, N.A. (Texas) under section 3(a)(3) of the Bank Holding Company Act (12 U.S.C. § 1842(a)(3)). (7) Acquisition by New Banco Popular of the Purchased Operations from Banco Popular under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (8) Merger of Banco Popular (with only New York operations) with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (9) Merger of Banco Popular, F.S.B. (after its conversion to a national banking association) with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (10) Merger of Banco Popular, Illinois, with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (11) Merger of Banco Popular, N.A. (California) with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). 61 (12) Merger of Banco Popular, N.A. (Florida) with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (13) Merger of First State Bank of Southern California with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (14) Merger of Bronson-Gore Bank with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (15) Merger of Irving Bank with and into Banco PopularNew York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (16) Establishment of branches at the locations of the predecessor institutions of New Banco Popular and Banco Popular-New York under section 9 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. § 321). (17) Merger of Water Tower Bank with and into Banco Popular-New York under the Bank Merger Act (12 U.S.C. § 1828(c)). (18) Establishment by New Banco Popular of an agency in Chicago, Illinois, under section 7(d) of the International Banking Act (12 U.S.C. § 3105(d)). (19) Establishment by New Banco Popular of a branch in New York, New York, under section 7(d) of the International Banking Act (12 U.S.C. § 3105(d)). (20) Redemption of capital stock and reduction of capital of Banco Popular under sections 9(6) and 9(11) of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. §§ 324 and 329), resulting from a distribution to Popular consisting of all the outstanding shares of common stock of New Banco Popular. (21) Reduction of capital of Banco Popular-New York, under sections 9(6) and 9(11) of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. §§ 324 and 329), resulting from a dividend to Popular North America, Inc., consisting of all the outstanding shares of common stock of Equity One, Inc. (22) Acquisition by New Banco Popular of all the outstanding shares of Popular Leasing & Rental, Inc., Popular Mortgage, Inc., and Popular Finance, Inc. as agreement corporations under section 211.4(f) of Regulation K (12 C.F.R. 211.4(f». (23) Establishment by Banco Popular-New York of an international banking facility under 12 C.F.R. 204.8(a)(l). (24) Establishment by New Banco Popular of its first two branches in foreign countries, under section 25 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. § 601) and section 211.3(a)(l) of Regulation K (12 C.F.R. 211.3(a)(l)). Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc. Lititz, Pennsylvania Order Approving Acquisition of a Bank Holding Company Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc. ("Susquehanna"), a bank holding company within the meaning of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act") (12 U.S.C. § 1842(a)(3)), has 62 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 requested the Board's approval under section 3 of the BHC Act to acquire Cardinal Bancorp, Inc. ("Cardinal"), and thereby acquire Cardinal's subsidiary bank, First American National Bank of Pennsylvania ("FA Bank"), both of Everett, Pennsylvania. Notice of the proposal, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 38,335 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the proposal and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 3 of the BHC Act. Susquehanna operates subsidiary banks in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey. Susquehanna is the tenth largest depository institution in Pennsylvania, controlling approximately $1.5 billion in deposits, representing approximately 1.1 percent of total deposits in depository institutions in the state ("state deposits"). 1 Cardinal is the 112th largest depository institution in Pennsylvania, controlling approximately $111.9 million in deposits, representing less than 1 percent of state deposits. On consummation of the proposal, Susquehanna would become the ninth largest depository institution in the state, controlling deposits of $1.6 billion, representing approximately 1.2 percent of state deposits. Competitive, Financial and Managerial Considerations Susquehanna and Cardinal do not compete in any banking market. Based on all the facts of record, the Board concludes that consummation of the proposal would not have a significant adverse effect on competition or on the concentration of banking resources in any relevant banking market. The Board also has considered the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of Susquehanna, Cardinal, and their respective subsidiaries in light of all the facts of record, including supervisory reports of examination assessing the financial and managerial resources of the organizations and financial information provided by Susquehanna. The Board notes that Susquehanna and its subsidiaries are well capitalized and are expected to remain so after consummation of the proposal. The Board also has considered other aspects of the financial condition and resources of the two organizations and the structure of the proposed transaction. Based on all the facts of record, the Board concludes that considerations related to the financial and managerial resources and the future prospects of Susquehanna, Cardinal, and their respective subsidiary banks, are consistent with approval, as are the other supervisory factors the Board is required to consider under section 3 of the BHC Act. Convenience and Needs Considerations The Board also has carefully considered the effect of the proposal on the convenience and needs of the communities 1. All banking data are as of June 30, 1998. to be served in light of all the facts of record. As part of that review, the Board has considered a comment from a community group, New Jersey Citizen Action ("NJCA"), concerning the performance of Susquehanna's subsidiary, Equity National Bank, Atco, New Jersey ("Equity Bank"), under the Community Reinvestment Act ("CRA"). 2 NJCA alleges that Susquehanna has not demonstrated its commitment to the credit needs of southern New Jersey and has failed to develop products to meet the community credit needs.3 NJCA further alleges that, based on data filed under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act ("HMDA"), 4 Equity Bank has an inadequate record of lending to lowand moderate-income ("LMI") census tracts and to African Americans. The Board has long held that consideration of the convenience and needs factor includes a review of the records of the relevant depository institutions under the CRA. As provided in the CRA, the Board has evaluated the convenience and needs factor in light of examinations of the CRA performance records of the relevant institutions by their primary federal supervisors. An institution's most recent CRA performance evaluation is a particularly important consideration in the application process, because it represents a detailed, on-site evaluation of the institution's overall record of performance under the CRA by its primary federal supervisor. Susquehanna's largest insured depository institution subsidiary, which accounts for approximately 26.8 percent of the company's consolidated assets, received an "outstanding" rating from its primary federal supervisor, the Office of Thrift Supervision, at its most recent examination for performance under CRA, as of July 20, 1998. Equity Bank, which was acquired by Susquehanna on February 28, 1997, and represents approximately 6 percent of the total assets of Susquehanna, received a "satisfactory" rating at its most recent evaluation for CRA performance in 1996. Two of Susquehanna's other banks received "outstanding" ratings from their primary federal supervisor at their most recent evaluations for CRA performance, and all of Susquehanna's other subsidiary banks received "satisfactory" ratings at their most recent evaluations for CRA performance. FA Bank, which is the bank Susquehanna proposes to acquire, received a "satisfactory" rating from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency at its last performance examination. The records of examination of the subsidiary banks of Susquehanna and Cardinal indicate that the examiners found no evidence of prohibited discrimination or other 2. 12U.S.C. §2901 etseq. 3. NJCA also argues that Susquehanna has failed to meet with community groups to discuss the needs of the communities that Equity Bank serves. The Board previously has noted that, although communication by depository institutions with community groups provides a valuable method of assessing and determining how best to meet the credit needs of a community, neither the CRA nor the CRA regulations of the federal supervisory agencies require depository institutions to enter into agreements with any organization. See Fifth Third Bancorp, 80 Federal Reserve Bulletin 838 (1994). 4. 12U.S.C. §2801 etseq. Legal Developments illegal credit practices and found no violations of fair lending laws in any of Susquehanna's subsidiary banks. Susquehanna's lead commercial subsidiary bank, Farmers First Bank, Lititz, Pennsylvania ("FFB"), has increased its residential mortgage loans to LMI borrowers in recent years. Many of these loans were originated in conjunction with the Lancaster Housing Opportunity Program, which offers a home buyer program with flexible underwriting standards. FFB also offers Veterans Administration and Federal Housing Administration loans. In addition, FFB has originated more indirect automobile loans to LMI borrowers than to any other income group. FFB also participates in the Habitat for Humanity program and other housing projects through the Housing Development Corporation in Lancaster County. Susquehanna's other subsidiary banks have implemented several programs to address the credit needs of LMI communities, such as a Community Homebuyers Program, which provides reduced fee loans to borrowers. Some of the banks also have a special small loan program and lines of credit for home renters. The banks also are participating lenders in affordable housing programs throughout Pennsylvania. The Board previously reviewed the outreach programs of Susquehanna's subsidiary banks in connection with its acquisition of Equity Bank and found that Susquehanna had policies and programs in place to ascertain the credit needs of its community.5 The Board's 1997 Order noted that Susquehanna proposed to implement a three-year lending program at Equity Bank to expand the type of loans available in its community. Equity Bank is primarily a small business lender,6 and the three-year CRA plan was designed to increase Equity Bank's affordable home mortgage lending, home improvement lending, community development lending, and to increase its small business lending to its community. Since its acquisition by Susquehanna, Equity Bank has increased lending in all these categories, resulting in increases in the percentage of Equity Bank's loan originations to LMI areas and individuals, and an overall increase in the percentage of lending within Equity Bank's assessment area. In 1997 and 1998, Equity Bank extended more than $687,000 in loans to first-time LMI home purchases and $263,000 in home improvement loans to qualified LMI borrowers. The bank also has commitments for $550,000 in revolving credit for the construction of affordable housing and for $178,000 for a commercial mortgage for a family services agency. Overall, data provided by Equity Bank shows that Equity Bank's lending to LMI census tracts improved from 1996 to 1997, and continued to increase in 1998. Data on small business loans indicate that 5. See Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc., 83 Federal Reserve Bulletin 317 (1997) ("1997 Order"). 6. According to Equity Bank's last examination, as of December 31, 1995, approximately 42 percent of the bank's loan portfolio consisted of small business loans in amounts of less than $1 million. Small business loans constituted 45.7 percent of the dollar volume of Equity Bank's loans through August 31. 1998. 63 the percentage of Equity Bank's loans made in LMI census tracts increased from 1996 to 1997, and increased again through August 1998. Equity Bank also recently established an advisory board to help identify the credit needs of the community. The Board has considered carefully the entire record in its review of the convenience and needs factor under the BHC Act. Based on all the facts of record, including NJCA's submission, Susquehanna's response, and the relevant reports of examination, the Board concludes that considerations relating to convenience and needs, including the CRA performance records of the relevant institutions, are consistent with approval. The Board expects that Susquehanna will continue to implement its three-year plan at Equity Bank and to take the steps necessary to incorporate programs at Equity Bank that will help meet the credit needs of its community. The Board's action in this case is conditioned on the full implementation of these programs by Susquehanna and Equity Bank. In addition, to permit the Board to assess the effectiveness of Equity Bank's eiforts, the Board's action on this proposal is conditioned on the requirement that Susquehanna report to the Federal Reserve System, on a semi-annual basis during the twoyear period after consummation, its progress toward improving Equity Bank's lending in LMI areas and to LMI individuals. Conclusion Based on the foregoing, and in light of all the facts of record, the Board has determined that the application should be, and hereby is, approved.7 The Board's approval is specifically conditioned on compliance by Susquehanna with the conditions described in this order and with all the commitments made in connection with the application. For the purpose of this action, the commitments and conditions relied on by the Board in reaching its decision are deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decision and, as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. 7. NJCA also requested that the Board hold a public meeting or hearing on the proposal. Section 3(b) of the BHC Act does not require the Board to hold a public hearing on an application unless the appropriate supervisory authority for the bank to be acquired makes a timely written recommendation of denial. The Board has not received such a recommendation from the appropriate supervisory authorities. Under its rules, the Board also may, in its discretion, hold a public meeting or hearing on an application to acquire a bank if a meeting or hearing is necessary or appropriate to clarify factual issues related to the application and to provide an opportunity for testimony, if appropriate. 12C.F.R. 225.16(e). The Board has carefully considered NJCA's request in light of all the facts of record. In the Board's view. NJCA has had ample opportunity to submit its views, and did submitted written comments that have been carefully considered by the Board in acting on the proposal. NJCA's request fails to demonstrate why its written comments do not adequately present its evidence and fails to identify disputed issues of fact that are material to the Board's decision that would be clarified by a public meeting or hearing. For these reasons, and based on all the facts of record, the Board has determined that a public meeting or hearing is not required or warranted in this case. Accordingly, the request is denied. 64 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 The acquisition of Cardinal shall not be consummated before the fifteenth calendar day after the effective date of this order, or later than three months after the effective date of this order, unless such period is extended for good cause by the Board or the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 23, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan, Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Ferguson, and Gramlich. Absent and not voting: Governor Meyer. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board Valley View Bancshares, Inc. Overland Park, Kansas Order Approving Application to Acquire a Bank Holding Company Valley View Bancshares, Inc. ("Valley View"), a bank holding company within the meaning of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act"), has requested the Board's approval under section 3 of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. § 1842) to acquire Paola-Citizens Bancshares, Inc. ("Paola"), and thereby acquire control of its subsidiary bank, Citizens State Bank ("Citizens Bank"), both of Paola, Kansas. Notice of the proposal, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 53,672 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the proposal and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 3 of the BHC Act. Valley View, with total consolidated assets of approximately $1.7 billion, operates four subsidiary banks in Kansas and one subsidiary bank in Missouri.1 Valley View is the sixth largest commercial banking organization in Kansas, controlling approximately $1.4 billion in deposits, representing approximately 3.5 percent of total deposits in commercial banking organizations in the state ("state deposits"). Paola is the 167th largest commercial banking organization in Kansas, controlling approximately $37 million in deposits, representing less than 1 percent of state deposits. On consummation of the proposal, Valley View would remain the sixth largest commercial banking organization in Kansas, controlling deposits of approximately $1.4 billion, representing approximately 3.6 percent of state deposits. In reviewing the proposal under the BHC Act, the Board has considered the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of the companies and banks involved, the convenience and needs of the communities to be served, and certain supervisory factors. The Board has reviewed these factors in light of the facts of record, including 1. State asset and deposit data are as of June 30, 1998. supervisory reports of examination assessing the financial and managerial resources of the organizations, discussions with other federal financial supervisory agencies, and confidential information provided by Valley View. The Board notes that Valley View management has adequate procedures in place to address the limited risks associated with the current activities of the holding company and its subsidiary banks. The Board further notes that the proposal represents a relatively small acquisition by Valley View, that Valley View would not incur or assume any debt in connection with the proposal, and that Valley View would remain well capitalized on consummation of the proposal. Based on the specific facts of record in this case, the Board concludes that the financial and managerial resources of Valley View, Paola, and their respective subsidiary banks and other supervisory factors are consistent with approval of the proposal. In considering the convenience and needs factor, the Board has reviewed the records of the relevant depository institutions under the Community Reinvestment Act ("CRA").2 As provided in the CRA, the Board has evaluated this factor in light of examinations of the CRA performance records of the relevant institutions by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"), the institutions' appropriate federal banking supervisor. All the insured depository institutions controlled by Valley View received "satisfactory" CRA performance ratings at their most recent CRA examinations by the FDIC. Citizens Bank received an "outstanding" CRA performance rating at its most recent CRA examination by the FDIC. Based on all the facts of record, the Board concludes that convenience and needs considerations, including the CRA performance records of the relevant institutions, are consistent with approval of the proposal. As required under the BHC Act, the Board also has considered the competitive effects of the proposal. Valley View and Paola do not compete with each other in any relevant banking market. Based on all the facts of record, the Board concludes that the proposal would not have a significantly adverse effect on competition or on the concentration of banking resources in any relevant banking market. Accordingly, the Board concludes that competitive considerations are consistent with approval. Conclusion Based on all the facts of record, the Board has determined that this application should be, and hereby is, approved.3 The Board's approval is specifically conditioned on com2. 12 U.S.C. §2901 etseq. 3. A former shareholder of Paola has requested that the Board, as part of its review of the proposal, monitor a private undertaking by Paola's management to compensate former shareholders from the proceeds of the proposal. The limited jurisdiction of the Board to review applications under the specific statutory factors in the BHC Act does not authorize the Board to consider matters relating to general corporate governance, such as shareholder relations and the adequacy of shareholder compensation. See Western Bancshares, Inc. v. Board of Governors, 480 F.2d 749 (10th Cir. 1973). Legal Developments pliance by Valley View with all the commitments made in connection with this proposal. The commitments and conditions relied on by the Board in reaching its decision are deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decisions and, as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. The proposed acquisition shall not be consummated before the fifteenth calendar day after the effective date of this order, or later than three months after the effective date of this order, unless such period is extended by the Board or by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 30, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan, Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Meyer, Ferguson, and Gramlich. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board Orders Issued Under Section 4 of the Bank Holding Company Act Bank One Corporation Chicago, Illinois Order Approving Investment in a Company that Performs Trust Company Activities Bank One Corporation ("Bank One"), a bank holding company within the meaning of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act"), has requested the Board's approval under section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. § 1843(c)(8)) and section 225.24 of the Board's Regulation Y (12C.F.R. 225.24) to acquire 50 percent of the voting interests in EquiServe Limited Partnership ("EquiServe"), a Delaware limited partnership,1 and thereby perform functions or activities that may be performed by a trust company.2 Notice of the proposal, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 23,044 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the proposal and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 4 of the BHC Act. Bank One, with total consolidated assets of approximately $231.7 billion, is the fifth largest commercial banking organization in the United States. Bank One controls subsidiary banks that operate in 14 states, and engages in a 1. Bank One would acquire an interest in EquiServe in exchange for contributing to the joint venture substantially all the assets of the shareholder services business conducted by its wholly owned subsidiary, First Chicago Trust Company of New York ("FCTC"). 2. The remaining voting interests in EquiServe are held by Boston EquiServe Limited Partnership, Canton, Massachusetts ("Boston EquiServe"), a joint venture between BankBoston, N.A. and Boston Financial Data Services, Inc. ("BFDS"). BFDS is owned by State Street Corporation and DST Systems, Inc. ("DST"). 65 broad range of nonbanking activities. After consummation of this proposal, EquiServe would offer shareholder services nationwide. These shareholder services would include maintenance of records of shareholders in publicly traded companies and related services, such as acting as dividend disbursement and reinvestment agent, registrar, transfer agent, redemption agent, rights agent, exchange agent, tender agent, and reorganization agent; proxy mailing and tabulation; and annual and interim report distribution. The Board previously has determined by regulation that the performance of functions or activities, such as shareholder servicing, that may be performed by a trust company is closely related to banking and permissible for bank holding companies under section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act.3 Bank One has committed to conduct these activities subject to the limitations set forth in Regulation Y. In order to approve the proposal, the Board also must find that the performance of the proposed activities by Bank One "can reasonably be expected to produce benefits to the public . . . that outweigh possible adverse effects, such as undue concentration of resources, decreased or unfair competition, conflicts of interests, or unsound banking practices." 4 As a part of its evaluation of these factors, the Board considers the financial condition and managerial resources of the notificant and its subsidiaries and the effect the transaction would have on such resources.5 On the basis of all the facts of record, including relevant reports of examination and consultation with other relevant federal and state supervisory agencies, the Board has concluded that financial and managerial considerations are consistent with approval of the notice. The Board also has carefully considered the competitive effects of the proposed joint venture. Both FCTC and Boston EquiServe currently engage in the activities to be conducted by the joint venture, EquiServe. On consummation of this proposal, EquiServe would become the largest shareholder servicing operation in the United States, serving approximately 1400 companies. The Board notes that the market for shareholder services is a national market, which is currently moderately concentrated.6 FCTC is the second largest shareholder servicing operation in the United States, managing approximately 12.1 million shareholder accounts, representing approximately 17.2 percent of total accounts in the United States. Boston EquiServe is the third largest shareholder servicing operation in the United States, managing approximately 11.5 million shareholder accounts, representing approximately 16.3 percent of total accounts in the United States. On consummation of this proposal, EquiServe would be3. See 12 C.F.R. 225.28(b)(5). 4. See 12 U.S.C. § 1843(c)(8). 5. See 12 C.F.R. 225.26. 6. Approximately 115 firms in the United States provide shareholder services commercially to companies issuing equity. These commercial shareholder services providers compete throughout the United States, and the Board previously has determined that the geographic market for this industry is national in scope. See Chemical Banking Corporation, 82 Federal Reserve Bulletin 239, 270 (1996). 66 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 come the largest shareholder servicing operation in the United States, managing approximately 23.6 million accounts, representing approximately 33.5 percent of total accounts in the United States. The structure of the market for shareholder services mitigates the adverse effects of this proposal. Many companies choose to be self-providers of shareholder services.7 Thus, the market indexes tend to overstate the relative market share controlled by specialized providers, such as Boston EquiServe and FCTC. Moreover, the decision by several large companies that currently are self-providers to outsource the function could significantly change the market share of a successful bidder for that business.8 In addition, there are numerous potential entrants into this market. Currently, more than 200 firms specialize in providing shareholder services to groups of affiliated investment companies. Although only a few firms provide shareholder services to industrial or financial companies and to investment company groups, many of the activities and organizational features of the types of firms that provide shareholder services to investment company groups are similar to those activities of firms providing these services to industrial or financial companies. The investment company shareholder servicers appear to be fully capable of entering the commercial services industry with little difficulty. Many investment company shareholder servicers possess the technology, workforce, and experience that would enable them to manage the volume of transactions currently processed by commercial providers. Based on these and other facts of record, the Board concludes that consummation of the proposed transaction would not have a significantly adverse effect on competition in any relevant market. The Board concludes that the proposed transaction would increase the ability of EquiServe to serve the needs of its customers and would allow the joint venture to provide existing and new customers with a broader range of products and services at lower costs. The Board also expects that combining the expertise and technology of FCTC and Boston EquiServe would enable EquiServe to become a more effective competitor in the market. Based on the foregoing and all the other facts of record, including the commitments and representations made by Bank One, the Board has determined that the performance of the proposed activity by the joint venture can reasonably be expected to produce benefits to the public that would outweigh any possible adverse effects under the proper incident to banking standard of section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act. On the basis of all the facts of record, the Board has determined that the notice should be, and hereby is, ap- 7. The Board's analysis omits self-providers from the competitive analysis. 8. As of December 31, 1997, an estimated 425 firms were providing their own shareholder servicing. These firms included some of the largest companies in the United States. The ability and willingness of many firms to provide their own shareholder servicing has contributed to strong price competition in the industry. proved. This determination is subject to all the conditions set forth in the Board's Regulation Y, including those in sections 225.7 and 225.25(c) (12C.F.R. 225.7 and 225.25(c)) and to the Board's authority to require modification or termination of the activities of a bank holding company or any of its subsidiaries as the Board finds necessary to assure compliance with, or to prevent evasion of, the provisions and purposes of the BHC Act and the Board's regulations and orders issued thereunder. The Board's approval of the proposal is specifically conditioned on compliance with all the commitments made in connection with this notice. The commitments, representations and conditions relied on in reaching this decision shall be deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decision and, as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. This transaction shall not be consummated later than three months after the effective date of this order unless such period is extended for good cause by the Board or by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 16, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan, Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Meyer, Ferguson, and Gramlich. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board PNC Bank Corp. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Order Approving Notice to Engage in Underwriting and Dealing in All Types of Debt and Equity Securities on a Limited Basis PNC Bank Corp. ("PNC"), a bank holding company within the meaning of the Bank Holding Company Act ("BHC Act"), has requested the Board's approval under section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. § 1843(c)(8» and section 225.24 of the Board's Regulation Y (12 C.F.R. 225.24) to expand the activities of its section 20 subsidiary, PNC Capital Markets, Inc., Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania ("Company"), to include underwriting and dealing in, to a limited extent, all types of debt and equity securities except ownership interests in open-end investment companies. PNC seeks approval for Company to conduct the proposed underwriting and dealing activities worldwide. Notice of the proposal, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, has been published (63 Federal Register 50,914 (1998)). The time for filing comments has expired, and the Board has considered the notice and all comments received in light of the factors set forth in section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act. PNC, with total consolidated assets of approximately $75.9 billion, is the 14th largest banking organization in Legal Developments the United States.1 PNC's subsidiary depository institutions operate in nine states, and PNC engages through other subsidiaries in a broad range of permissible nonbanking activities. Company currently engages in limited underwriting and dealing in certain types of bank-ineligible securities2 as permitted under section 20 of the GlassSteagall Act (12U.S.C. § 377).3 Company is, and will continue to be, registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (15 U.S.C. § 78a et seq.) and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. ("NASD"). Company, therefore, is subject to the record-keeping and reporting obligations, fiduciary standards, and other requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the SEC, and the NASD. Underwriting and Dealing in Bank-Ineligible Securities The Board has determined that, subject to the framework of prudential limitations established in previous decisions to address the potential for conflicts of interests, unsound banking practices, or other adverse effects, underwriting and dealing in bank-ineligible securities is so closely related to banking as to be a proper incident thereto within the meaning of section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act.4 The Board also has determined that underwriting and dealing in bankineligible securities is consistent with section 20 of the Glass-Steagall Act (12 U.S.C. § 377), provided that the company engaged in the activity derives no more than 25 percent of its gross revenues from underwriting and dealing in bank-ineligible securities.5 1. Asset and ranking data are as of June 30, 1998. 2. As used in this order, "bank-ineligible securities'" refers to all types of debt and equity securities that a bank may not underwrite or deal in directly under section 16 of the Glass-Steagall Act (12 U.S.C. § 24(7)). 3. Company has authority to underwrite and deal in, to a limited extent, certain municipal revenue bonds, 1-4 family mortgage-related securities, commercial paper, and consumer-receivable-related securities. See PNC Financial Corp., 73 Federal Reserve Bulletin 742 (1987), and PNC Financial Corp., 75 Federal Reserve Bulletin 396 (1989). Company also is authorized to engage in a variety of other nonbanking activities. 4. See J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc., et at, 75 Federal Resen'e Bulletin 192 (1989), aff'd sub nom. Securities Industry Ass'n v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 900 F.2d 360 (D.C. Cir. 1990); Citicorp, 73 Federal Reserve Bulletin 473 (1987), aff'd sub nom. Securities Industry Ass 'n v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 839 F.2d 47 (2d Cir.), cert, denied, 486 U.S. 1059 (1988), as modified by Review of Restrictions on Director, Officer and Employee Interlocks, Cross-Marketing Activities, and the Purchase and Sale of Financial Assets Between a Section 20 Subsidiary and an Affiliated Bank or Thrift, 61 Federal Register 57,679 (1996); Amendments to Restrictions in the Board's Section 20 Orders, 62 Federal Register 45,295 (1997); and Clarification to the Board's Section 20 Orders, 63 Federal Register 14,803 (1998) (collectively, "Section 20 Orders"). 5. See Section 20 Orders. Compliance with the revenue limitation shall be calculated in accordance with the method stated in the Section 20 Orders, as modified by the Order Approving Modifications to the Section 20 Orders, 75 Federal Reserve Bulletin 751 (1989); 10 Percent Revenue Limit on Bank-Ineligible Activities of Subsidiaries of Bank Holding Companies Engaged in Underwriting and Dealing in 67 PNC has committed that Company will conduct its underwriting and dealing activities using the methods and procedures and subject to the prudential limitations established by the Board in the Section 20 Orders. PNC also has committed that Company will conduct its bank-ineligible securities underwriting and dealing activities subject to the Board's revenue restriction. As a condition of this order, PNC is required to conduct its bank-ineligible securities activities subject to the revenue restriction and Operating Standards established for section 20 subsidiaries.6 Other Considerations In order to approve this notice, the Board also must determine that performance of the proposed activities is a proper incident to banking, that is, the proposed activities "can reasonably be expected to produce benefits to the public, such as greater convenience, increased competition, or gains in efficiency, that outweigh possible adverse effects, such as undue concentration of resources, decreased or unfair competition, conflicts of interests, or unsound banking practices." 7 The Board expects that consummation of the proposal would provide added convenience to PNC's customers, lead to improved methods of meeting customers' financing needs, increase the level of competition among existing providers of these services, and improve the operating efficiency of Company. As part of its review of the statutory factors, the Board considers the financial and managerial resources of the notificant and its subsidiaries and the effect the transaction would have on such resources.8 In considering the financial resources of the notificant, the Board has reviewed the capitalization of PNC and Company in accordance with the standards set forth in the Section 20 Orders and finds the capitalization of each to be consistent with approval. This determination is based on all the facts of record, including PNC's projections of the volume of Company's underwriting and dealing activities in bank-ineligible securities. The Board also has reviewed the managerial resources of each of the entities involved in this proposal in light of examination reports and other supervisory information. PNC requested that the Board perform a debt-only infrastructure review of Company and stated that it later would request that the Board perform an equity infrastructure review of Company. In connection with the proposal, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ("Reserve Bank") has reviewed the policies and procedures of Company for Securities, 61 Federal Register 48,953 (1996); and Revenue Limit on Bank-Ineligible Activities of Subsidiaries of Bank Holding Companies Engaged in Underwriting and Dealing in Securities, 61 Federal Register 68,750 (1996) (collectively, "Modification Orders"). 6. 12C.F.R. 225.200. Company may provide services that are necessary incidents to the proposed underwriting and dealing activities. Unless Company receives specific approval under section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act to conduct the activities independently, any revenues from the incidental activities must be treated as ineligible revenues subject to the Board's revenue limitation. 7. 12 U.S.C. § 1843(c)(8). 8. See 12 C.F.R. 225.26. 68 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 underwriting and dealing in all types of debt securities, including Company's operational and managerial infrastructure, computer, audit, and accounting systems and internal risk management procedures and controls. The Board has determined on the basis of the infrastructure review that Company has established policies and procedures to ensure compliance with this order and the Section 20 Orders for underwriting and dealing in debt securities. As discussed below, a satisfactory infrastructure review of Company related to underwriting and dealing in all types of equity securities must be completed before Company may engage in these activities. On the basis of the Reserve Bank's review of Company's debt underwriting and dealing policies and procedures and all other facts of record, including the commitments provided in this case and the proposed managerial and risk management systems of Company, and subject to the completion of a satisfactory infrastructure review of Company related to underwriting and dealing in all types of equity securities, the Board has concluded that financial and managerial considerations are consistent with approval of the notice. Based on all the facts of record, the Board has determined that performance of the proposed activities by PNC, under the framework established in this and prior decisions, can reasonably be expected to produce public benefits that outweigh any adverse effects of the proposal. Accordingly, the Board has determined that the performance of the proposed activities by PNC is a proper incident to banking for purposes of section 4(c)(8) of the BHC Act. underwriting and dealing activities, subject to the other conditions of this order, the Section 20 Orders, and the Modification Orders. The Board's determination also is subject to all the terms and conditions set forth in Regulation Y, including those in sections 225.7 and 225.25(c) (12 C.F.R. 225.7 and 225.25(c)), and to the Board's authority to require modification or termination of the activities of a bank holding company or any of its subsidiaries as the Board finds necessary to ensure compliance with, or to prevent evasion of, the provisions and purposes of the BHC Act and the Board's regulations and orders issued thereunder. The Board's decision is specifically conditioned on compliance with all the commitments made in connection with this notice, including the commitments discussed in this order and the conditions set forth in this order and the Board regulations and orders noted above. The commitments and conditions are deemed to be conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its findings and decision and, as such, may be enforced in proceedings under applicable law. This proposal shall not be consummated later than three months after the effective date of this order, unless such period is extended for good cause by the Board or the Reserve Bank, acting pursuant to delegated authority. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 16, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan, Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Meyer, Ferguson, and Gramlich. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board Conclusion On the basis of all the facts of record, the Board has determined that the notice should be, and hereby is, approved, subject to all the terms and conditions described in this order. The Board's approval of the proposal extends only to activities conducted within the limitations of this order, including the Board's reservation of authority to establish additional limitations to ensure that Company's activities are consistent with safety and soundness, avoidance of conflicts of interests, and other relevant considerations under the BHC Act. Underwriting and dealing in any manner other than as approved in this order is not within the scope of the Board's approval and is not authorized for Company. Company may commence underwriting and dealing in all types of debt securities immediately. The Board's approval of the proposed underwriting and dealing in all types of equity securities, however, is conditioned on a future determination by the Board that Company has established policies and procedures for equity underwriting and dealing to ensure compliance with the requirements of this order, the Section 20 Orders, and the Modification Orders, including Company's operational and managerial infrastructure, computer, audit, and accounting systems and internal risk management procedures and controls. After notification by the Board that this condition has been satisfied, Company may commence the proposed equity ORDERS ISSUED UNDER INTERNATIONAL BANKING ACT Credit Suisse Zurich, Switzerland Order Approving Establishment of Representative Offices Credit Suisse, Zurich, Switzerland, a foreign bank within the meaning of the International Banking Act ("IBA") has applied under section 10(a) of the IBA (12U.S.C. § 3107(a)) to establish representative offices in Miami, Florida; New York, New York; and Houston, Texas. The Foreign Bank Supervision Enhancement Act of 1991 ("FBSEA"), which amended the IBA, provides that a foreign bank must obtain the approval of the Board to establish a representative office in the United States. Notice of the application, affording interested persons an opportunity to submit comments, was published on March 14, 1997, in a newspaper of general circulation in Houston {Houston Chronicle), Miami {Miami Herald), and New York {New York Times). The time for filing comments has expired, and all comments have been considered. Legal Developments Credit Suisse, with total consolidated assets of approximately $89 billion,1 is part of the second largest banking group in Switzerland, and it engages in a wide range of banking activities worldwide directly and through subsidiaries. Credit Suisse Group, Zurich, Switzerland, a holding company that engages through subsidiaries in financial and nonfinancial activities worldwide, owns 99.9 percent of the shares of Credit Suisse. No single shareholder owns 10 percent or more of the shares of Credit Suisse Group. In the United States, Credit Suisse Group operates, through Credit Suisse First Boston ("CSFB"), Zurich, Switzerland, branches in New York, New York, and Los Angeles, California; and representative offices in San Francisco, California; Chicago, Illinois; and Houston, Texas.2 Credit Suisse and CSFB also engage in activities in the United States through several nonbanking subsidiaries. Credit Suisse proposes to establish the offices primarily to act as liaison with private banking clients, solicit private banking business, and provide information and advice on economic conditions and investment opportunities in Switzerland. The Houston office would report directly to the Miami office; the Miami and New York offices would report directly to Credit Suisse's head office in Switzerland. No funds would be received or disbursed at or through the representative offices. In acting on an application to establish a representative office, the IBA and Regulation K provide that the Board shall take into account whether the foreign bank engages directly in the business of banking outside of the United States, and has furnished to the Board the information it needs to assess the application adequately. The Board also shall take into account whether the foreign bank and any foreign bank parent is subject to comprehensive supervision or regulation on a consolidated basis by its home country supervisor (12U.S.C. § 3107(a)(2); 12C.F.R. 211.24(d)(2)).3 The Board also may take into account 1. Asset data are as of June 30, 1998. 2. CSFB also operates an agency and representative office in Miami. Those offices would be closed on the establishment of the Miami office of Credit Suisse. 3. In assessing this standard, the Board considers, among other factors, the extent to which the home country supervisors: (i) Ensure that the bank has adequate procedures for monitoring and controlling its activities worldwide; (ii) Obtain information on the condition of the bank and its subsidiaries and offices through regular examination reports, audit reports, or otherwise; (iii) Obtain information on the dealings with and relationship between the bank and its affiliates, both foreign and domestic; (iv) Receive from the bank financial reports that are consolidated on a worldwide basis, or comparable information that permits analysis of the bank's financial condition on a worldwide consolidated basis; (v) Evaluate prudential standards, such as capital adequacy and risk asset exposure, on a worldwide basis. These are indicia of comprehensive, consolidated supervision. No single factor is essential, and other elements may inform the Board's determination. 69 additional standards as set forth in the IBA and Regulation K (12 U.S.C. § 3105(d)(3)-(4); 12 C.F.R. 211.24(c)). As noted above, Credit Suisse engages directly in the business of banking outside of the United States. Credit Suisse also has provided the Board with the information necessary to assess the application through submissions that address the relevant issues. With respect to supervision by home country authorities, the Board previously has determined, in connection with applications involving other banks in Switzerland, that those banks were subject to home country supervision on a consolidated basis.4 Credit Suisse is supervised by the SFBC on substantially the same terms and conditions as those other banks. Based on all the facts of record, the Board has determined that Credit Suisse is subject to comprehensive supervision and regulation on a consolidated basis by its home country supervisor. The Board also has taken into account the additional standards set forth in section 7 of the IBA and Regulation K (12 U.S.C. § 3105(d)(3)-(4); 12 C.F.R. 211.24(c)(2)). In this regard, the SFBC has no objection to the establishment of the proposed representative offices. With respect to the financial and managerial resources of Credit Suisse, taking into consideration Credit Suisse's record of operations in its home country, its overall financial resources, and its standing with its home country supervisors, the Board has also determined that financial and managerial factors are consistent with approval of the proposed representative offices. Credit Suisse appears to have the experience and capacity to support the proposed representative offices and has established controls and procedures for the proposed representative offices to ensure compliance with U.S. law. With respect to access to information about Credit Suisse's operations, the Board has reviewed the restrictions on disclosure in relevant jurisdictions in which Credit Suisse operates and has communicated with relevant government authorities regarding access to information. Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse Group have committed to make available to the Board such information on the operations of Credit Suisse and any of its affiliates that the Board deems necessary to determine and enforce compliance with the IBA, the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956, as amended, and other applicable federal law. To the extent that the provision of such information may be prohibited by law, Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse Group have committed to cooperate with the Board to obtain any necessary consents or waivers that might be required from third parties for disclosure of such information. In addition, subject to certain conditions, the SFBC may share information on Bank's operations with other supervisors, including 4. See Coutts & Co.. AG, 79 Federal Reserve Bulletin 636 (1993); Union Bank of Switzerland, 82 Federal Reserve Bulletin 370 (1996); Swiss Bank Corporation, 82 Federal Reserve Bulletin 690 (1996), and 83 Federal Reserve Bulletin 214 (1997); UBS AG/Union Bank of Switzerland, 84 Federal Reserve Bulletin 684 (1998). Credit Suisse Group, although not a bank, is also subject to consolidated supervision by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission ("SFBC"). 70 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 the Board. In light of these commitments and other facts of record, and subject to the condition described below, the Board concludes that Credit Suisse has provided adequate assurances of access to any necessary information the Board may request. On the basis of all the facts of record, and subject to the commitments made by Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse Group, as well as the terms and conditions set forth in this order, the Board has determined that Credit Suisse's application to establish the representative offices should be, and hereby is, approved. Should any restrictions on access to information on the operations or activities of Credit Suisse and its affiliates subsequently interfere with the Board's ability to obtain information to determine and enforce compliance by Credit Suisse or its affiliates with applicable federal statutes, the Board may require termination of any of Credit Suisse's or its affiliates' direct or indirect activities in the United States. Approval of this application also is specifically conditioned on compliance by Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse Group with the commitments made in connection with this application, and with the conditions in this order.5 The commitments and conditions referred to above are conditions imposed in writing by the Board in connection with its decision and may be enforced in proceedings under 12 U.S.C. § 1818 against Credit Suisse and its affiliates. By order of the Board of Governors, effective November 23, 1998. Voting for this action: Chairman Greenspan, Vice Chair Rivlin, and Governors Kelley, Ferguson, and Gramlich. Absent and not voting: Governor Meyer. ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON Associate Secretary of the Board 5. The Board's authority to approve the establishment of the proposed representative offices parallels the continuing authority of the States of Florida, New York, and Texas to license offices of a foreign bank. The Board's approval of this application does not supplant the authority of those states to license the proposed offices of Credit Suisse in accordance with any terms or conditions that they may impose. INDEX OF ORDERS ISSUED OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (JULY 1, 1998-SEPTEMBER 30, 1998) Applicant Merged or Acquired Bank or Activity Date of Approval Bulletin Volume and Page Bane One Corporation, Columbus, Ohio BankBoston Corporation, Boston, Massachusetts The Bank of East Asia, Ltd., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China Commerce Bancorp, Inc., Cherry Hill, New Jersey Cooperatieve Centrale RaiffeisenBoerenleenbank B.A., Rabobank Nederland Utrecht, The Netherlands First American Corporation, Nashville, Tennessee First Mariner Bancorp, Baltimore, Maryland First Chicago NBD Corporation, Chicago, Illinois BancAmerica Robertson Stephens, San Francisco, California To establish a representative office in Flushing, New York September 14, 1998 84,961 August 24, 1998 84,849 August 3, 1998 84,886 Commerce Capital Markets, Inc., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Weiss, Peck & Greer, L.L.C., New York, New York July 13, 1998 84,798 August 3, 1998 84,852 The Middle Tennessee Bank, Columbia, Tennessee Glen Burnie Bancorp, Glen Burnie, Maryland The Bank of Glen Burnie, Glen Burnie, Maryland Nueces National Bank, Corpus Christi, Texas BankAmerica Corporation, San Francisco, California Bank of America National Trust and Savings Association, San Francisco, California Bank of America, FSB, Portland, Oregon August 17, 1998 84,845 September 28, 1998 84,956 September 8, 1998 84,959 August 17, 1998 84,858 First National Bank Group, Inc., Edinburg, Texas NationsBank Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina NationsBank (DE) Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina Legal Developments 71 Index of Orders Issued—Continued Applicant Merged or Acquired Bank or Activity Date of Approval Bulletin Volume and Page Norwest Corporation, Minneapolis, Minnesota Star Bancshares, Inc., Austin, Texas Star Bancshares of Nevada, Inc., Carson City, Nevada First State Bank, Austin, Texas New Security First Network Bank, Miami, Florida Citicorp, New York, New York Superior Federal Bank, F.S.B., Fort Smith, Arkansas August 12, 1998 84,847 August 3, 1998 84,855 September 23, 1998 84,985 August 3, 1998 84,884 Royal Bank of Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada Travelers Group, Inc., New York, New York WestStar Bank, Bartlesville, Oklahoma APPLICATIONS APPROVED UNDER BANK HOLDING COMPANY ACT By the Secretary of the Board Recent applications have been approved by the Secretary of the Board as listed below. Copies are available upon request to the Freedom of Information Office, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551. Section 3 Applicant(s) Bank(s) Effective Date Centura Banks, Inc., Rocky Mount, North Carolina Scotland Bancorp, Inc., Laurinburg, North Carolina Scotland Savings Bank, SSB, Laurinburg, North Carolina Franklin Bancshares. Inc., Franklin, Texas The First National Bank of Franklin, Franklin, Texas November 5, 1998 Applicant(s) Bank(s) Effective Date State Street Corporation, Boston, Massachusetts Bridge Information Systems, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri United Bancorporation, Billings, Montana ADP Financial Information Services, Inc., Jersey City, New Jersey Wilco International Limited, London, England Information Network Services, Inc., Billings, Montana November 6, 1998 Wells Fargo & Company, San Francisco, California November 5, 1998 Section 4 November 16, 1998 72 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 By Federal Reserve Banks Recent applications have been approved by the Federal Reserve Banks as listed below. Copies are available upon request to the Reserve Banks. Section 3 Applicant(s) Bank(s) Reserve Bank Effective Date AmBank Holdings, Inc., Davenport, Iowa Amundson Family Limited Partnership, Sioux Falls, South Dakota Beulah Bancorporation, Inc., Sioux Falls, South Dakota Applachian Bancshares, Inc., Ellijay, Georgia Area Bancshares Corporation, Owensboro, Kentucky American Bank and Trust Company, Davenport, Iowa Robinson Bank Holding Company, Robinson, North Dakota Security State Bank of Robinson, Robinson, North Dakota Chicago October 29, 1998 Minneapolis November 4, 1998 First National Bank of Union County, Blairsville, Georgia Peoples Bancorp of Winchester, Inc., Winchester, Kentucky Peoples Commercial Bank, Winchester, Kentucky TRH Bank Group, Inc., Norman, Oklahoma Mitchell County Bank, Simpson, Kansas First Missouri Bancshares, Inc., Brookfield, Missouri First Missouri National Bank, Brookfield, Missouri Bank of Okolona, Okolona, Mississippi Evergreen Bancorp, Inc., Glens Falls, New York Evergreen Bank, N.A., Glens Falls, New York Downey Bancorp, Downey, California Downey National Bank, Downey, California The Bank of Orange County, Fountain Valley, California Atlanta November 4, 1998 St. Louis October 29, 1998 St. Louis October 29, 1998 Kansas City November 9, 1998 St. Louis November 17, 1998 Boston October 22, 1998 San Francisco October 22, 1998 Thomson Holdings, Inc., Centerville, South Dakota Minneapolis November 6, 1998 Quinter Insurance Service, Inc., Quinter, Kansas Peoples Savings Bank, Indianola, Iowa Van Alstyne Financial Corporation, Van Alstyne, Texas Kansas City October 22, 1998 Chicago November 3, 1998 Dallas November 4, 1998 Minneapolis November 17, 1998 Arvest Bank Group. Inc., Bentonville, Arkansas Astra Financial Corporation, Prairie Village, Kansas Bancorp of Okolona, Inc., Okolona, Mississippi Banknorth Group, Inc., Burlington, Vermont Belvedere Capital Partners, Inc., San Francisco, California California Community Financial Institutions Fund Limited Partnership, San Francisco, California California Financial Bancorp, Newport Beach, California Bluestem Bank Holding Company, L.L.C., Sioux Falls, South Dakota Bugbee Family Limited Partnership, Leawood, Kansas Central South Bancorporation, Inc. Indianola, Iowa Chaparral Bancshares, Inc., Richardson, Texas Chaparral Bancshares of Delaware, Inc., Dover, Delaware Citizens Bancorporation of New Ulm, Inc., New Ulm, Minnesota State Bank of La Salle, La Salle, Minnesota Legal Developments 73 Section 3—Continued Applicant(s) Bank(s) Reserve Bank Effective Date Columbia Bancorp, The Dalles, Oregon Valley Community Bancorp, McMinnville, Oregon Valley Community Bank, McMinnville, Oregon Community Bancshares, Inc., Neosho, Missouri San Francisco November 12, 1998 Kansas City November 12, 1998 Fort Des Moines Community Bank, Des Moines, Iowa Community Shores Bank, Roosevelt Park, Michigan Chicago October 29, 1998 Chicago November 5, 1998 Community Spirit Bank - Mississippi, Belmont, Mississippi East-West Bank, San Marino, California Sebastian Bankshares, Inc., Barling, Arkansas River Valley Bank and Trust, Lavaca, Arkansas Southwest National Corporation, Greensburg, Pennsylvania Atlanta November 12, 1998 San Francisco November 12, 1998 St. Louis November 4, 1998 Cleveland November 2, 1998 Sutton Agency, Inc., Sutton, Nebraska Kansas City November 4, 1998 Froid Bankshares, Inc.. Froid, Montana First State Bank of Froid, Froid, Montana First Community Bank of Palm Beach County, Pahokee, Florida First National Bancshares, Inc., Goodland, Kansas Minneapolis November 16, 1998 Atlanta November 12, 1998 Kansas City November 17, 1998 Whatcom State Bancorp, Bellingham, Washington Whatcom State Bank, Ferndale, Washington Greene County Savings Bank, Catskill, New York San Francisco October 22, 1998 New York October 29, 1998 Chicago November 2, 1998 Community Bancshares, Inc., Employee Stock Ownership Plan and Trust, Neosho, Missouri Community Bancshares Corp., Indianola, Iowa Community Shores Bank Corporation, Roosevelt Park, Michigan Community Spirit Bancshares, Inc., Belmont, Mississippi East West Bancorp, San Marino, California First Bank Corp, Fort Smith, Arkansas First Commonwealth Financial Corporation. Indiana, Pennsylvania First York Ban Corp, York, Nebraska Albion National Management Company, Inc., Albion, Nebraska First Community Bancorp, Inc., Glasgow, Montana First Community Bancorp, Inc., Pahokee, Florida First National Bancshares, Inc. ESOP and 401(k) Trusts, Goodland, Kansas First Washington Bancshares, Inc., Walla Walla, Washington Greene County Bancorp, MHC, Catskill, New York Greene County Bancorp, Inc., Catskill, New York High Point Financial Services, Inc.. Forreston, Illinois Kent Bancshares, Inc., Kent, Illinois Kent Bank, Kent, Illinois 74 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Section 3—Continued Applicant(s) Bank(s) Reserve Bank Effective Date Machias Bancorp, MHC, Machias, Maine Machias Bancorp, Inc., Machias, Maine Mid-Atlantic Community BankGroup, Inc., Gloucester, Virginia Machias Savings Bank, Machias, Maine Boston November 2, 1998 United Community Bankshares, Inc.. Franklin, Virginia The Bank of Sussex and Surry, Wakefield, Virginia The Bank of Franklin, Franklin, Virginia Mt. Sterling Bancshares, Inc., Mt. Sterling, Illinois Farmers State Bank & Trust Company, Mt. Sterling, Illinois Florida Citizens Bank, Ocala, Florida The Oneida Savings Bank, Oneida, New York Richmond October 29, 1998 St. Louis November 5, 1998 Atlanta October 29, 1998 New York October 29, 1998 Kasson State Bank, Kasson, Minnesota The Pleasants County Bank, St. Marys, West Virginia Meigs County Bancshares, Inc., Decatur, Tennessee Meigs County Bank, Decatur, Tennessee Saint James Bancorporation, Inc., Lutcher, Louisiana Saint James Bank and Trust Company, Lutcher, Louisiana Bullsboro Bancshares, Inc., Newnan, Georgia The Bank of Newnan, Newnan. Georgia VB&T Bancshares Corp., Valdosta, Georgia Valdosta Bank and Trust, Valdosta, Georgia Ridgewood Savings Bank of New Jersey, Ridgewood, New Jersey Minneapolis November 18, 1998 Richmond November 5, 1998 Atlanta November 3, 1998 New York November 16, 1998 Pacific Capital Bancorp, Salinas, California First National Bank of Central California, Salinas, California South Valley National Bank, Morgan Hill, California San Francisco November 3, 1998 Mt. Sterling Bancorp, Inc., Mt. Sterling, Illinois OGS Investments, Inc., Tallahassee, Florida Oneida Financial, MHC, Oneida, New York Oneida Financial Corp., Oneida, New York Palmer Bancshares, Inc., Kasson, Minnesota Pleasants County Bankshares, Inc., St. Marys, West Virginia Regions Financial Corporation, Birmingham, Alabama Ridgewood Financial MHC, Ridgewood, New Jersey Ridgewood Financial, Inc., Ridgewood, New Jersey Santa Barbara Bancorp, Santa Barbara, California Legal Developments 75 Section 3—Continued Applicant(s) Bank(s) Reserve Bank Effective Date Security Bank Holding Company Employee Stock Ownership Plan, Coos Bay, Oregon Security Bank Holding Company, Coos Bay, Oregon Southern Bancorp, Inc., Marietta, Georgia St. Charles Financial Corporation, Oak Brook, Illinois Oregon State Bank, Corvallis, Oregon San Francisco November 12, 1998 Southern National Bank, Marietta, Georgia Commerce Bancorp, Inc., Berkeley, Illinois National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, Illinois Georgia Bank and Trust Company, Calhoun, Georgia Atlanta November 3, 1998 Chicago November 2, 1998 Atlanta October 29, 1998 Quinter Insurance Service, Inc., Quinter, Kansas Kansas City November 5, 1998 Oklahoma State Bank, Guthrie, Oklahoma Vista Bancorp, Inc., Phillipsburg, New Jersey Community Spirit Bancshares, Inc., Belmont, Mississippi Community Spirit Bank - Mississippi, Belmont, Mississippi Kansas City November 2, 1998 New York October 29, 1998 Atlanta November 12, 1998 Western Reserve Bank, Medina, Ohio Cleveland October 23, 1998 Applicant! s) Nonbanking Activity/Company Reserve Bank Effective Date The Bank of New York Company, Inc., New York, New York Bank of New York Capital Markets, Inc., New York, New York First Frederick Financial Corporation, Frederick. Maryland Patricof & Co. Capital Corp., New York, New York New York October 20, 1998 To place cash dispensing machines in locations owned or leased by unaffiliated third parties and thereby engage in data processing activities Scott & Stringfellow Financial, Inc., Richmond, Virginia Scott & Stringfellow, Inc., Richmond, Virginia InterBank Systems, Inc., Natchez, Mississippi Richmond October 23, 1998 Richmond November 16, 1998 Atlanta October 22, 1998 American Growth Finance, Inc., Dallas, Texas Atlanta November 16, 1998 Synovus Financial Corp., Columbus, Georgia TB&C Bancshares, Inc., Columbus, Georgia Terry and Kathy Barrett Family Limited Partnership, Frisco, Colorado Town & Country Bancshares, Inc., Guthrie, Oklahoma Valley National Bancorp, Wayne. New Jersey The Weatherford Foundation of Red Bay, AL, Inc., Red Bay, Alabama Independent Bancshares, Inc., Red Bay, Alabama Western Reserve Bancorp, Inc., Medina, Ohio Section 4 BB&T Corporation, Winston-Salem, North Carolina Britton & Koontz Capital Corporation, Natchez, Mississippi Community Financial Group, Inc., Nashville, Tennessee 76 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Section 4—Continued Applicant(s) Nonbanking Activity/Company Reserve Bank Effective Date Community National Bank Corporation. Venice, Florida Community Advisory Services, Inc., Venice, Florida Community Financial Centers, Inc., Venice, Florida Community Investment Centers Inc., Venice, Florida Caywood-Scholl Capital Management, San Diego, California Atlanta October 28, 1998 New York October 19, 1998 Kansas City November 10, 1998 Boston November 2, 1998 Lenox Savings Bank, Lenox, Massachusetts Trust Company of the Berkshires, N.A., Pittsfield, Massachusetts Boston October 26, 1998 National Australia Capital Markets, LLC, New York, New York Keystone Financial Leasing Corporation, Exton, Pennsylvania Tampa Townhomes, L.L.C., Tampa, Kansas GSB Financial Corporation, Goshen, New York Goshen Savings Bank, Goshen, New York Chicago November 6, 1998 Philadelphia November 5, 1998 Kansas City October 22, 1998 New York November 12, 1998 Dresdner Bank AG, Frankfurt, Germany Dresdner RCM Gobal Investors LLC, San Francisco, California Gold Bane Corporation, Inc., Leawood, Kansas Machias Bancorp, MHC, Machias, Maine Machias Bancorp, Inc., Machias, Maine MSB Leasing, Inc., Machias, Maine Mutual Bancorp of the Berkshires, Inc., Pittsfield, Massachusetts United Financial Group, Inc. Pittsfield, Massachusetts National Australia Bank Ltd., Melbourne, Australia Patriot Bank Corp., Pottstown, Pennsylvania Tampa State Bankshares, Inc., Tampa, Kansas Warwick Community Bancorp, Inc.. Warwick, New York The Trust Company, St. Joseph, Missouri M&M Consulting, LLC, Bangor, Maine Sections 3 and 4 Applicant(s) Nonbanking Activity/Company Reserve Bank Effective Date Associated Banc-Corp, Green Bay, Wisconsin Citizens Bankshares, Inc., Shawano, Wisconsin Citizens Bank, National Association, Shawano, Wisconsin Wisconsin Finance Corporation, Shawano, Wisconsin Citizens Financial Services, Inc., Shawano, Wisconsin Chicago October 23, 1998 Legal Developments 11 APPLICATIONS APPROVED UNDER BANK MERGER ACT By the Secretary of the Board Recent applications have been approved by the Secretary of the Board as listed below. Copies are available upon request to the Freedom of Information Office, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551. Applicant(s) Bank(s) Effective Date Centura Bank, Laurinburg, North Carolina Scotland Savings Bank, SSB, Laurinburg, North Carolina November 5, 1998 By Federal Reserve Banks Recent applications have been approved by the Federal Reserve Banks as listed below. Copies are available upon request to the Reserve Banks. Applicant(s) Bank(s) Reserve Bank Effective Date The Citizens Banking Company, Salineville, Ohio Century National Bank and Trust of Rochester, Rochester, Pennsylvania Winfield Banking Company, Winfield, Missouri Cleveland October 27, 1998 St. Louis October 28, 1998 Pleasants County Interim Bank, St. Marys, West Virginia Household Bank, F.S.B., Wood Dale, Illinois Northside Bank of Tampa, Tampa, Florida Farmers and Merchants Bank, Monticello, Florida Richmond November 5, 1998 Atlanta October 28, 1998 Atlanta November 9, 1998 Atlanta November 9, 1998 Peoples Bank and Trust Company of Lincoln County, Troy, Missouri The Pleasants County Bank, St. Marys, West Virginia Republic Security Bank, West Palm Beach, Florida Republic Security Bank, West Palm Beach, Florida Southwest Georgia Bank, Moultrie, Georgia PENDING CASES INVOLVING THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS This list of pending cases does not include suits against the Federal Reserve Banks in which the Board of Governors is not named a party. Jones v. Board of Governors, No. 98-30138 (5th Cir., filed October 1, 1998). Appeal of district court dismissal of complaint alleging violations of the Fair Housing Act. Attorneys Against American Apartheid v. Board of Governors, No. 98-1483 (D.C. Cir., filed October 21, 1998). Petition for review of denial of reconsideration of a Board order dated August 17, 1998, approving the merger of NationsBank Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina, and BankAmerica. Corporation, San Francisco, California. Cunningham v. Board of Governors, No. 98-1459 (D.C. Cir., filed September 30, 1998). Petition for review of a Board order dated September 23, 1998, conditionally approving the applications of Travelers Group, Inc., New York, New York, to become a bank holding company by acquiring Citicorp, New York, New York, and its bank and nonbank subsidiaries. On November 12, 1998, the Board filed a motion to dismiss the petition. Independent Bankers Association of America v. Board of Governors, No. 98-1482 (D.C. Cir., filed October 21, 1998). Petition for review of a Board order dated September 23, 1998, conditionally approving the applications of Travelers Group, Inc., New York, New York, to become a bank holding company by acquiring Citicorp, New York, New York, and its bank and nonbank subsidiaries. Wasserman v. Board of Governors, No. 98-CIV-6017 (S.D.N.Y., filed August 24, 1998). Complaint alleging wrongful failure to investigate activities of a bank. On September 14, 1998, the Board filed its motion to dismiss the complaint, and on October 14 the court dismissed the action on plaintiff's withdrawal of the complaint. 78 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Pharaon v. Board of Governors, No. 98-103 (U.S. Supreme Court, filed July 15, 1998). Petition for writ of certiorari seeking review of the decision of the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit affirming the Board's order dated January 31, 1997, imposing civil money penalties and an order of prohibition for violations of the Bank Holding Company Act. On October 19, 1998, the Supreme Court denied the writ. Clarkson v. Greenspan, No.98-5349 (D.C. Cir., filed July 29, 1998). Appeal of district court order granting Board's motion for summary judgment in a Freedom of Information Act case. On September 14, 1998, the Board filed a motion for summary affirmance of the district court dismissal. Board of Governors v. Carrasco, No. 98 Civ. 3474 (LAK) (S.D.N.Y., filed May 15, 1998). Action to freeze assets of individual pending administrative adjudication of civil money penalty assessment by the Board. On May 26, 1998, the court issued a preliminary injunction restraining the transfer or disposition of the individual's assets and appointing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as receiver for those assets. Board of Governors v. Pharaon, No. 98-6101 (2d Cir., filed May 4, 1998). Appeal of partial denial of Board's motion for summary judgment in action to freeze assets of individual pending administrative adjudication of civil money penalty assessment by the Board. On May 22, 1998, the appellee filed a cross-appeal from the partial final judgment. Research Triangle Institute v. Board of Governors, No. 971719 (U.S. Supreme Court, filed April 28, 1998). Petition for writ of certiorari to review dismissal by the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit of a contract claim against the Board. On October 5, 1998, the Supreme Court denied the writ. Fenili v. Davidson, No. C-98-01568-CW (N.D. California, filed April 17, 1998). Tort and constitutional claim arising out of return of a check. On June 5, 1998, the Board filed its motion to dismiss. Logan v. Greenspan, No. l:98CV00049 (D.D.C., filed January 9, 1998). Employment discrimination complaint. Goldman v. Department of the Treasury, No. 1-97-CV-3798 (N.D. Ga., filed December 23, 1997). Declaratory judgment action challenging Federal Reserve notes as lawful money. On March 2, 1998, the Board filed a motion to dismiss the action. Kerr v. Department of the Treasury, No. CV-S-97-01877DWH (S.D. Nev., filed December 22, 1997). Challenge to income taxation and Federal Reserve notes. On September 3, 1998, a motion to dismiss was filed on behalf of all federal defendants. Allen v. Indiana Western Mortgage Corp., No. 97-7744 RJK (CD. Cal, filed November 12, 1997). Customer dispute with a bank. On March 23, 1998, the district court dismissed the action. Artis v. Greenspan, No. 97-5235 (D.C. Cir., filed September 19, 1997). Appeal of district court order dismissing employment discrimination class action. On October 20, 1998, the court of appeals affirmed the dismissal. Towe v. Board of Governors, No. 97-71143 (9th Cir., filed September 15, 1997). Petition for review of a Board order dated August 18, 1997, prohibiting Edward Towe and Thomas E. Towe from further participation in the banking industry. In re: Subpoena Duces Tecum Served on the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, No. 97-5229 (D.C. Cir., filed September 12, 1997). Appeal of district court order denying motion to compel production of pre-decisional supervisory documents and testimony sought in connection with an action by Bank of New England Corporation's trustee in bankruptcy against the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. On June 26, 1998, the court of appeals reversed and remanded the case to the district court. On August 10, 1998, the Board filed a petition for rehearing and suggestion for rehearing in bane. On October 6, 1998, the court amended its opinion and denied the petition. Bettersworth v. Board of Governors, No. 97-CA-624 (W.D. Tex., filed August 21, 1997). Privacy Act case. FINAL ENFORCEMENT DECISION BOARD OF GOVERNORS ISSUED BY THE In the Matter of a Notice to Prohibit Further Participation Against James J. Redemann Former Director of Evergreen Bank, N.A. Evergreen Bank, N.A. Poy Sippi, Wisconsin Docket No. AA-EC-98-09 Final Decision This is an administrative proceeding pursuant to the Federal Deposit Insurance Act ("FDI Act") in which the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of the United States of America ("OCC") seeks to prohibit the Respondent, James J. Redemann ("Redemann"), from further participation in the affairs of any financial institution because of his conduct as an officer of Evergreen Bank, N.A., Poy Sippi, Wisconsin (the "Bank"). Under the FDI Act, the OCC may initiate a prohibition proceeding against a former employee of a national bank, but the Board must make the final determination whether to issue an order of prohibition. Upon review of the administrative record, the Board issues this Final Decision adopting the Recommended Decision ("Recommended Decision") of Administrative Law Judge Walter Alprin (the "ALJ"), and orders the issuance of the attached Order of Prohibition. Legal Developments I. Statement of the Case A. Statutory and Regulatory Framework Under the FDI Act and the Board's regulations, the ALJ is responsible for conducting proceedings on a notice of charges. 12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)(4). The ALJ issues a recommended decision that is referred to the deciding agency together with any exceptions to those recommendations filed by the parties. The Board makes the final findings of fact, conclusions of law, and determination whether to issue an order of prohibition in the case of prohibition orders sought by the OCC. Id.; 12 C.F.R. 263.40. The FDI Act sets forth the substantive basis upon which a federal banking agency may issue against a bank official or employee an order of prohibition from further participation in banking. In order to issue such an order, the Board must make each of three findings: (1) that the respondent engaged in identified misconduct, including an unsafe or unsound practice or a breach of fiduciary duty; (2) that the conduct had a specified effect, including financial loss to the institution or gain to the respondent; and (3) that the respondent's conduct involved either personal dishonesty or a willful or continuing disregard for the safety or soundness of the institution. 12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)(l)(A)-(C). An enforcement proceeding is initiated by the filing of a notice of charges which is served on the respondent. Under the OCC's and the Board's regulations, the respondent must file an answer within 20 days of service of the notice. 12 C.F.R. 19.19(a) and 263.19(a). Failure to file an answer constitutes a waiver of the respondent's right to contest the allegations in the notice, and a final order may be entered unless good cause is shown for failure to file a timely answer. 12 C.F.R. 19.19(c)(l) and 263.19(c)(l). B. Procedural History On May 7, 1998, the OCC initiated a Notice of Removal and Notice of Charges (the "Notice") against Redemann. The Notice alleged that Redemann engaged in an unsafe and unsound banking practice while employed at the Bank. Specifically, the Notice alleged that while a Director of the Bank, Redemann engaged in a scheme to obtain Bank funds for the benefit of the Bank's president and vicepresident, who are husband and wife. As a result of the scheme, the Bank suffered actual or potential loss. The scheme was carried out by means of money orders issued to Redemann, recorded as capitalized expenditures for the Bank. Some of the proceeds of the money orders, however, were used for payments for the benefit of the Bank president. The Notice was personally served on Redemann on May 8, 1998. Through counsel, Redemann obtained an 79 extension to answer to Notice to July 7, 1998. Shortly before his answer was due, Redemann filed a "Notice of Default," expressly denying the allegations but indicating that he chose "not to contest this action because he accepts the consequences of a final order entering the relief that the [Notice] seeks . . . ." Enforcement Counsel then moved for entry of an order of default, and the ALJ issued his Recommended Decision recommending issuance of an order of prohibition. II. Discussion Because Redemann's default prevents him from contesting the allegations in the Notice, the Board may take those allegations as established. According to the Notice, Redemann engaged in a scheme in which he obtained cashier's checks drawn on the Bank and booked as capitalized expenditures of the Bank. A portion of the funds were paid over to the Bank's president and his wife, causing actual or potential loss to the Bank. These actions meet all of the requirements of an order of prohibition. Redemann's action in directing Bank funds to the Bank president personally was both an unsafe or unsound banking practice and a breach of his fiduciary duty. As a result, the Bank "has suffered or will probably suffer financial loss," 12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)(l)(B)(i). Finally, Redemann's action evidenced personal dishonesty in that he arranged for the checks to be recorded as legitimate Bank expenses while transferring a portion of the funds to the Bank president. Redemann's action also constituted a willful or continuing disregard for the Bank's safety or soundness, as such action, if continued, could threaten the Bank's safety or soundness. In sum, all elements necessary for the issuance of a prohibition order are presented in this case. Conclusion For these reasons, the Board orders the issuance of the attached Order of Prohibition. By Order of the Board of Governors, this 30th day of November, 1998. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System JENNIFER J. JOHNSON Secretary of the Board Order of Prohibition WHEREAS, pursuant to section 8(e) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, as amended, (the "Act") (12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)), the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ("the Board") is of the opinion, for the reasons set forth in the accompanying Final Decision, that a final Order of Prohibition should issue against JAMES J. REDEMANN ("Redemann"); 80 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 NOW, THEREFORE, IT IS HEREBY ORDERED, pursuant to section 8(e) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, as amended (12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)), that: 1. In the absence of prior written approval by the Board, and by any other Federal financial institution regulatory agency where necessary pursuant to section 8(e)(7)(B) of the Act (12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)(7)(B)), Redemann is hereby prohibited: (a) From participating in the conduct of the affairs of any bank holding company, any insured depository institution or any other institution specified in subsection 8(e)(7)(A) of the Act (12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)(7)(A)); (b) From soliciting, procuring, transferring, attempting to transfer, voting or attempting to vote any proxy, consent, or authorization with respect to any voting rights in any institution described in subsection 8(e)(7)(A) of the Act (12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)(7)(A)); (c) From violating any voting agreement previously approved by the appropriate Federal banking agency; or (d) From voting for a director, or from serving or acting as an institution-affiliated party as defined in section 3(u) of the Act, (12 U.S.C. § 1813(u)), such as an officer, director, or employee. 2. This Order, and each provision hereof, is and shall remain fully effective and enforceable until expressly stayed, modified, terminated or suspended in writing by the Board. This Order shall become effective at the expiration of thirty days after service is made. By Order of the Board of Governors, this 30th day of November, 1998. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System JENNIFER J. JOHNSON Secretary of the Board FINAL ENFORCEMENT ORDERS ISSUED BY THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS Frontier Bank of Laramie County Cheyenne, Wyoming The Federal Reserve Board announced on November 17, 1998, the issuance of a Cease and Desist Order against the Frontier Bank of Laramie County, Cheyenne, Wyoming. William Shilstone New York, New York The Federal Reserve Board announced on November 17, 1998, the issuance of a Cease and Desist Order against William Shilstone, a former institution-affiliated party of the New York branch of Societe Generale, New York, New York. Al Financial and Business Statistics A3 DOMESTIC FINANCIAL STATISTICS Money Stock and Bank A4 A5 A6 Credit Reserves, money stock, liquid assets, and debt measures Reserves of depository institutions and Reserve Bank credit Reserves and borrowings—Depository institutions Policy Instruments A7 A8 A9 Federal Finance—Continued GUIDE TO TABULAR PRESENTATION Federal Reserve Bank interest rates Reserve requirements of depository institutions Federal Reserve open market transactions Federal Reserve Banks A10 Condition and Federal Reserve note statements A l l Maturity distribution of loan and security holding A27 Gross public debt of U.S. T r e a s u r y Types and ownership A28 U.S. government securities dealers—Transactions A29 U.S. government securities dealers— Positions and financing A30 Federal and federally sponsored credit agencies—Debt outstanding Securities Markets and Corporate Finance A31 New security issues—Tax-exempt state and local governments and corporations A32 Open-end investment companies—Net sales and assets A32 Corporate profits and their distribution A32 Domestic finance companies—Assets and liabilities A3 3 Domestic finance companies—Owned and managed receivables Real Estate Monetary and Credit Aggregates A12 Aggregate reserves of depository institutions and monetary base A13 Money stock, liquid assets, and debt measures Commercial Banking Institutions— Assets and Liabilities A15 A16 A17 A19 A20 All commercial banks in the United States Domestically chartered commercial banks Large domestically chartered commercial banks Small domestically chartered commercial banks Foreign-related institutions A34 Mortgage markets—New homes A35 Mortgage debt outstanding Consumer Credit A36 Total outstanding A36 Terms Flow of Funds A37 A39 A40 A41 Funds raised in U.S. credit markets Summary of financial transactions Summary of credit market debt outstanding Summary of financial assets and liabilities Financial Markets A22 Commercial paper and bankers dollar acceptances outstanding A22 Prime rate charged by banks on short-term business loans A23 Interest rates—Money and capital markets A24 Stock market—Selected statistics Federal Finance A25 Federal fiscal and financing operations A26 U.S. budget receipts and outlays A27 Federal debt subject to statutory limitation DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL STATISTICS Selected A42 A42 A43 A44 A46 A47 A48 A49 Measures Nonfinancial business activity Labor force, employment, and unemployment Output, capacity, and capacity utilization Industrial production—Indexes and gross value Housing and construction Consumer and producer prices Gross domestic product and income Personal income and saving A2 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Summary Statistics A50 A51 A51 A51 U.S. international transactions U.S. foreign trade U.S. reserve assets Foreign official assets held at Federal Reserve Banks A52 Selected U.S. liabilities to foreign official institutions Reported by Banks in the United States A52 A53 A55 A56 Liabilities to, and claims on, foreigners Liabilities to foreigners Banks' own claims on foreigners Banks' own and domestic customers' claims on foreigners A56 Banks' own claims on unaffiliated foreigners A57 Claims on foreign countries—Combined domestic offices and foreign branches Reported by Nonbanking Business Enterprises in the United States A58 Liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners A59 Claims on unaffiliated foreigners Securities Holdings and Transactions A60 Foreign transactions in securities A61 Marketable U.S. Treasury bonds and notes—Foreign transactions Interest and Exchange Rates A61 Discount rates of foreign central banks A61 Foreign short-term interest rates A62 Foreign exchange rates A63 GUIDE TO STATISTICAL RELEASES AND SPECIAL TABLES SPECIAL TABLES A64 Pro Forma Balance Sheet and Income Statements for Priced Services Operations A66 INDEX TO STATISTICAL TABLES A3 Guide to Tabular Presentation SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS c e n.a. P r * 0 ATS BIF CD CMO CRA FFB FHA FHLBB FHLMC FmHA FNMA FSLIC G-7 Corrected Estimated Not available Preliminary Revised (Notation appears on column heading when about half of the figures in that column are changed.) Amounts insignificant in terms of the last decimal place shown in the table (for example, less than 500,000 when the smallest unit given is millions) Calculated to be zero Cell not applicable Automatic transfer service Bank insurance fund Certificate of deposit Collateralized mortgage obligation Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 Federal Financing Bank Federal Housing Administration Federal Home Loan Bank Board Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Farmers Home Administration Federal National Mortgage Association Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Group of Seven G-10 GNMA GDP HUD IMF IO IPCs IRA MMDA MSA NOW OCD OPEC OTS PMI PO REIT REMIC RP RTC SCO SDR SIC VA Group of Ten Government National Mortgage Association Gross domestic product Department of Housing and Urban Development International Monetary Fund Interest only Individuals, partnerships, and corporations Individual retirement account Money market deposit account Metropolitan statistical area Negotiable order of withdrawal Other checkable deposit Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Office of Thrift Supervision Private mortgage insurance Principal only Real estate investment trust Real estate mortgage investment conduit Repurchase agreement Resolution Trust Corporation Securitized credit obligation Special drawing right Standard Industrial Classification Department of Veterans Affairs GENERAL INFORMATION In many of the tables, components do not sum to totals because of rounding. Minus signs are used to indicate (1) a decrease, (2) a negative figure, or (3) an outflow. "U.S. government securities" may include guaranteed issues of U.S. government agencies (the flow of funds figures also include not fully guaranteed issues) as well as direct obligations of the Treasury. "State and local government" also includes municipalities, special districts, and other political subdivisions. A4 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 1.10 RESERVES, MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Percent annual rate of change, seasonally adjusted' 1997 Monetary or credit aggregate 1 2 3 4 Reserves of depository institutions" Total Required Nonborrowed Monetary base3 5 6 7 8 9 Concepts of money, liquid assets, and debt* Ml M2 M3 L Debt Nontransai'tlon components 10 InM2 5 11 In M3 only6 Q4 Ql -2.8 -5.6 -1.9 -1.8 -.6 6.9 Q2 Q3 -2.5 -4.3 4.1 -7.4 -9.0 -8.4' 6.9 -3.8 Julyr Aug. Sept. Oct. -7.9 6.2 15.5 5.0 4.9 1.0 4.6 8.9 -11.0' -16.1 -10.5 11.5 -5.2 -2.5 -3.2 9.3 June -5.3 -18.1 .9 7.0 10.0 9.2 6.0 3.0 8.0 11.0 12.9' 6.2 .2 7.5 10.3 8.0 6.2 -2.5' 6.7 7.1' -3.5 5.9 -3.6 5.3 6.8 7.2 5.8' -3.0 4.9 1.5 -.3 6.2 -3.1' 8.5' 11.8' 9.6' 5.8' 3.6' 14.8' 14.5' -67.5 5.6 7.1 12.3 13.6 n.a. 9.3 19.5 9.8 20.3 10.1 18.8 9.9' 8.2' 8.4 10.9 7.6 -8.3 12.5' 21.4' 18.6' 13.7' 14.0 17.3 13.6 14.3 -1.0 18.0 13.8' .8' -2.4 10.9 -1.0 16.8 17.0 .2 -29.8 15.2' 5.6 11.7' 18.7' I.7r -2.7' 14.5 1.7 1.8 7.5' 1.1 2.8 11.6 .7 6.9 Time and savings deposits Commercial banks Savings, including MMDAs Small time7 Large time 89 Thrift institutions 15 Savings, including MMDAs 16 Small time7 17 Large time 16.3 4.5 9.9 1.5 19.5 1.4 -3.1 5.4 7.6 -.4 14.4 11.6 -5.6 6.9 -5.0' -4.0 3.6 -1.1 13.9 8.5 -5.3 -9.6 2.7 -12.4' -8.3 Money market mutual funds 18 Retail 19 Institution-only 15.1 22.0 19.3 18.9 21.7 36.5 21.8 21.6 20.8 28.7 5.5 -5.3 33.1 36.5 48.3 38.4 31.5 60.9 Repurchase agreements and Eurodollars 20 Repurchase agreements10 21 Eurodollars10 39.5 24.3 34.1 7.6 14.5 -7.7 10.3 11.7' -32.6 13.9 17.9 18.9 32.5 8.4' 32.1 -31.0 1 -20.3 12.9 .4 7.9 .0 8.3 -1.4 8.6' -.9 8.0' -.9 8.4 8.0 -3.3 8.4 12 13 14 Debt components 22 Federal 23 Nonfederal 1. Unless otherwise noted, rates of change are calculated from average amounts outstanding during preceding month or quarter. 1. Figures incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or "breaks." associated with regulatory changes in reserve requirements. (See also table 1.20.) 3. The seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted monetary base consists of (1) seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted total reserves (line I), plus (2) the seasonally adjusted currency component of the money stock, plus (3) (for all quarterly reporters on the "Report of Transaction Accounts, Other Deposits and Vault Cash" and for all weekly reporters whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves) the seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted difference between current vault cash and the amount applied to satisfy current reserve requirements. 4. Composition of the money stock measures and debt is as follows: Ml: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions, (2) travelers checks of nonbank issuers, (3) demand deposits at all commercial banks other than those owed to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions, less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) and automatic transfer service (ATS) accounts at depository institutions, credit union share draft accounts, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Seasonally adjusted Ml is computed by summing currency, travelers checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately. M2: Ml plus (1) savings (including MMDAs), (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits—including retail RPs—in amounts of less than S100,000), and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000). Excludes individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and Keogh balances at depository institutions and money market funds. Seasonally adjusted M2 is calculated by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money fund balances, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. M3: M2 plus (1) large-denomination time deposits (in amounts of S 100,000 or more), (2) balances in institutional money funds (money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more), (3) RP liabilities (overnight and term) issued by all depository institutions, and (4) Eurodollars (overnight and term) held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks worldwide and at all banking offices in the Uniled Kingdom and Canada. Excludes -1.5 8.3 amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, money market funds, and foreign banks and official institutions. Seasonally adjusted M3 is calculated by summing large time deposits, institutional money fund balances, RP liabilities, and Eurodollars, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M2. L: M3 plus the nonbank public holdings of U.S. savings bonds, short-term Treasury securities, commercial paper, and bankers acceptances, net of money market fund holdings of these assets. Seasonally adjusted L is computed by summing U.S. savings bonds, short-term Treasury securities, commercial paper, and bankers acceptances, each seasonally adjusted separately, and then adding this result to M3. Debt: The debt aggregate is the outstanding credit market debt of the domestic nonfinancial sectors—the federal sector (U.S. government, not including government-sponsored enterprises or federally related mortgage pools) and the nonfederal sectors (state and local governments, households and nonprofit organizations, nonfinancial corporate and nonfamn noncorporate businesses, and farms). Nonfederal debt consists of mortgages, lax-exempt and corporate bonds, consumer credit, bank loans, commercial paper, and other loans. The data, which are derived from the Federal Reserve Board's flow of funds accounts, are breakadjusted (that is, discontinuities in the data have been smoothed into the series) and month-averaged (that is, the data have been derived by averaging adjacent month-end levels). 5. Sum of (1) savings deposits (including MMDAs), (2) small time deposits, and (3) retail money fund balances, each seasonally adjusted separately. 6. Sum of (1) large time deposits, (2) institutional money fund balances, (3) RP liabilities (overnight and term) issued by depository institutions, and (4) Eurodollars (overnight and term) of U.S. addressees, each seasonally adjusted separately. 7. Small time deposits—including retail RPs—are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. All IRA and Keogh account balances at commercial banks and thrift institutions are subtracted from small time deposits. 8. Large time deposits are those issued in amounts of $100,000 or more, excluding those booked at international banking facilities. 9. Large time deposits at commercial banks less those held by money market funds, depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions. 10. Includes both overnight and term. Money Stock and Bank Credit A5 1.11 RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND RESERVE BANK CREDIT' Millions of dollars Average of daily figures Average of daily figures for week ending on date indicated 1998 Aug. Sept. Oct. Sept. 16 Sept. 23 Sept. 30 481,257 486,639 489,496 486,799 486,081 441,902 3,072 444,223 6,303 447,493 3,235 442,785 8,038 444,810 5,675 469 3,013 0 417 1,923 0 394 3,425 0 403 1,729 0 27 247 0 414 32,113 56 177 0 622 32,918 104 0 186 34,572 11,045 9,200 25,950' 11,045 9,200 25,990' 487,952' 120 5,130 167 6,979 347 16,922 9,836 Oct. 7 Oct. 14 Oct. 21 Oct. 28 487,907' 488,458 488,624 490,836 488,188 446,239 5,441 446,736 3,740 447,673 2,672 447,289 4,096 447,209 2.025 403 1.521 0 403 1,170 0 403 2,811 0 400 3,077 0 4,415 0 388 3,457 0 27 167 0 530 33,120 II 174 0 678 32,808 138 172 0 796' 33,549 315 132 0 286 34,036 31 110 0 543 34,117 4 99 0 -178 34,723 13 91 0 281 34,724 11,043 9,200 26,033 11,045 9,200 25,989' 11,045 9,200 25,992' 11,045 9,200 25,995' 11,044 9,200 26,009 11,044 9,200 26,023 11,044 9,200 26,037 11,040 9,200 26,051 492,822' 93 496,396 91 493,832' 92 492,430' 94 492,794' 93 493,934 92 497,334 92 497,191 92 496,617 90 6,296 176 6,907' 360 17,160 9,061' 5,407 224 6,949 414 17,347 8,945 5,869 175 6,827 358 16,998 8,881 7,144 165 6,946 370 17,168 8,002 6,989 201 6,992' 353 17,206 9,519' 5,779 194 6,959 423 17,681 9,649 5,480 321 7,055 417 17,078 7,114 5,322 209 6,953 408 17,218 9,725 5,326 206 6,866 424 17,188 7,761 SUPPLYING RESERVE FUNDS 1 Reserve Bank credit outstanding U.S. government securities2 2 Bought outright—System account3 3 Held under repurchase agreements Federal agency obligations 4 Bought outright 5 Held under repurchase agreements 6 Acceptances Loans to depository institutions 7 Adjustment credit 8 Seasonal credit 9 Extended credit 10 Float 11 Other Federal Reserve assets 12 Gold stock 13 Special drawing rights certificate account 14 Treasury currency outstanding ABSORBING RESERVE FUNDS 15 Currency in circulation 16 Treasury cash holdings Deposits, other than reserve balances, with Federal Reserve Banks 17 Treasury 18 Foreign 19 Service-related balances and adjustments . . 20 Other 21 Other Federal Reserve liabilities and capital . 22 Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks4 Wednesday figures End-of-month figures Sept. 16 Sept. 23 Sept. 30 Oct. 7 Oct. 14 494,902 486,641 491,427 496,371' 489.458 491,277 492,306 489,075 450,179 4,286 442,835 9,106 445,804 8,630 446,047 12,135 447,457 4,538 447,687 2,045 448,032 4,115 447,966 2,279 403 2,099 0 388 3,538 0 403 795 0 403 2,075 0 403 2,099 0 403 2,840 0 388 4,570 0 388 5,488 0 388 3,440 0 66 226 0 973 32,518 896 159 0 -1,230" 35,862 1 68 0 -314 36,756 31 173 0 142 33,157 9 177 0 836 33,495 896 159 0 -1,230' 35,862 3 128 0 -40 34,131 101 109 0 2,140 34,238 0 94 0 -266 34,455 83 0 116 34,802 11,046 9,200 25,984' 11,044 9,200 25,995' 11,041 9,200 26,065 11,045 9,200 25,989' 11,045 9,200 25,992' 11,044 9,200 25,995' 11,044 9,200 26,009 11,044 9,200 26,023 11,044 9,200 26,037 11,041 9,200 26,051 488,645' 94 494,244' 92 497,402 87 494,005' 94 493,359' 93 494,244' 92 495,888 92 498,474 92 497,594 91 498,039 87 6,704 162 6,870 332 17,420 13,881 4,952 347 6,992' 349 17,654 17,981' 4,440 154 6,864 380 18.241 13,639 6,265 163 6,827 357 16,734 8,430 7,508 166 6,946 388 16,952 12,253 4,952 347 6,992' 349 17,654 17,981' 5,291 196 6,959 427 16,898 9,960 4,895 189 7,055 397 16,878 9,564 4,842 177 6,953 398 17,025 11,506 6,382 213 6,866 467 16.927 6.385 Aug. Sept. 487,877 496,371' 442,135 7,942 446.047 12.135 451 3,566 0 SUPPLYING RESERVE FUNDS 1 Reserve Bank credit outstanding U.S. government securities 2 Bought outright—System account3 3 Held under repurchase agreements Federal agency obligations 4 Bought outright 5 Held under repurchase agreements 6 Acceptances Loans to depository institutions 7 Adjustment credit 8 Seasonal credit 9 Extended credit 10 Float 11 Other Federal Reserve assets 12 Gold stock 13 Special drawing rights certificate account 14 Treasury currency outstanding ABSORBING RESERVE FUNDS 15 Currency in circulation 16 Treasury cash holdings Deposits, other than reserve balances, with Federal Reserve Banks 17 Treasury 18 Foreign 19 Service-related balances and adjustments . . 20 Other 21 Other Federal Reserve liabilities and capital . 22 Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks4 1. Amounts of cash held as reserves are shown in table 1.12, line 2. 2. Includes securities loaned—fully guaranteed by U.S. government securities pledged with Federal Reserve Banks—and excludes securities sold and scheduled to be bought back under matched sale-purchase transactions. 3. Includes compensation thai adjusts for the effects of inflation on the principal of inflation-indexed securities. 4. Excludes required clearing balances and adjustments to compensate for float. A6 1.12 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 RESERVES AND BORROWINGS Depository Institutions' Millions of dollars Prorated monthly averages of biweekly averages Reserve classification 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Reserve balances with Reserve Banks Total vault cash3 Applied vault cash4 Surplus vault cash5 Total reserves6 Required reserves Excess reserve balances at Reserve Banks7 Total borrowings at Reserve Banks" Seasonal borrowings Extended credit9 1998 1995 1996 1997 Dec. Dec. Dec. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.' Oct. 20.440 42,281 37,460 4,821 57,900 56,622 1,278 257 40 0 13,395 44,525 37,848 6,678 51,242 49,819 1,423 155 68 0 10,673 44,707 37,206 7,500 47,880 46,196 1,683 324 79 0 11,053 41,215 35,423 5,792 46,475 45,131 1,345 72 41 0 9,646 41,482 35.159 6,323 44,805 43,655 1,150 153 94 0 9,668 42,635 35,427 7,208 45,095 43,475 1,620 251 159 0 9.646 42,035 34,954 7,081 44,600 43,235 1,365 258 215 0 9,682 42,121 35,025 7,095 44,707 43,194 1,513 271 242 0 9,284 42,579 34,909 7,670 44,193 42,509 1,684 251 178 0 9,033 43,348 35,089 8,258 44,122 42,543 1,579 174 107 0 Biweekly averages of daily figures for two week periods ending on dates indicated 1998 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Reserve balances with Reserve Banks2 Total vault cash Applied vault cash4 Surplus vault cash5 Total reserves6 Required reserves Excess reserve balances at Reserve Banks Total borrowings at Reserve Banks8 Seasonal borrowings Extended credit9 July 1 July 15 July 29 Aug. 12 Aug. 26 Sept. 9 Sept. 23 Oct. 7 Oct. 21 Nov. 4 9,969 41,919 35,060 6,859 45,029 43.232 1,797 285 184 0 10,225 42,101 35,102 6,999 45,326 43,999 1,327 198 196 0 8,933 41,984 34,770 7,214 43,703 42,341 1,362 314 233 0 10,428 41,984 35,157 6,827 45,585 44,147 1,437 271 241 0 8.800 42,355 35,024 7,330 43,824 42,392 1,431 280 255 0 10,363 41,793 34,712 7,081 45,075 43,153 1,922 247 209 0 8,439 42,900 35,039 7,862 43,477 42,093 1,384 190 171 0 9,588 42,948 34,905 8,043 44,493 42,514 1,978 379 152 0 8,400 44,084 35,321 8,763 43,720 42,520 1,200 122 105 0 9,531 42,598 34,895 7,703 44,426 42,597 1,829 103 79 0 1. Data in this table also appear in the Board's H.3 (502) weekly statistical release. For ordering address, see inside front cover. Data are not break-adjusted or seasonally adjusted. 2. Excludes required clearing balances arid adjustments to compensate for float and includes other off-balance-sheet L'as-of' adjustments. 3. Total "lagged" vault cash held by depository institutions subject to reserve requirements. Dates refer to the maintenance periods during which the vault cash may be used to satisfy reserve requirements. The maintenance period for weekly reporters ends sixteen days after the lagged computation period during which the vault cash is held. Before Nov. 25, 1992, the maintenance period ended thirty days after the lagged computation period. 4. All vault cash held during the lagged computation period by "bound" institutions (that is, those whose required reserves exceed their vault cash) plus the amount of vault cash applied during the maintenance period by "nonbound" institutions (that is, those whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves) to satisfy current reserve requirements. 5. Total vault cash (line 2) less applied vault cash (line 3). 6. Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks (line 1) plus applied vault cash (line 3). 7. Tolal reserves (line 5) less required reserves (line 6). 8. Also includes adjustment credit. 9. Consists of borrowing at the discount window under the lenns and conditions established for the extended credit program to help depository instirulions deal with sustained liquidity pressures. Because there is not the same need to repay such borrowing promptly as with traditional short-term adjustment credit, the money market effect of extended credit is similar to that of nonborrowed reserves. Policy Instruments A7 1.14 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK INTEREST RATES Percent per year Current and previous levels Adjustment credit1 Federal Reserve Bank Seasonal credit On 12/4/98 Extended credit" On 12/4/98 On 12/4/98 Boston New York Philadelphia.. Cleveland Richmond.... Atlanta 11/18/98 11/17/98 11/17/98 11/19/98 11/18/98 11/18/98 Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis.. Kansas City .. Dallas San Francisco. 11/19/98 11/19/98 11/19/98 11/18/98 11/17/98 11/17/98 Effective date 4.95 Range of rates for adjustment credit in recent years4 Effective date Range (or level)—All F.R. Banks F.R. Bank of N.Y. In effect Dec. 31, 1977 1978—Jan. 9 20 11 12 3 10 21 22 16 20 1 3 6-6.5 6.5 6.5-7 7 7-7.25 7.25 7.75 8 8-8.5 8.5 8.5-9.5 9.5 1979—July 20 Aug. 17 20 Sept. 19 21 Oct. 8 10 10 10-10.5 10.5 10.5-11 II 11-12 12 1980—Feb. 15 19 May 29 30 June 13 16 July 28 29 Sept. 26 Nov. 17 Dec. 5 8 1981—May 5 12-13 13 12-13 12 11-12 11 10-11 10 11 12 12-13 13 13-14 14 May July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 6.5 6.5 7 7 7.25 7.25 7.75 8 8.5 8.5 9.5 9.5 10 10.5 10.5 II II 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 II 12 13 13 14 14 Range (or level)—All F.R. Banks F.R. Bank of N.Y. 1981—Nov. 2 . 6. Dec. 4 . 13-14 13 12 1982—July 20 . 23 . Aug. 2 . 3. 16 . 27. 30 . Oct. 12 . 13 . Nov. 22 . 26. Dec. 14 . 15 . 17. 11.5-12 11.5 11-11.5 11 10.5 10-10.5 10 9.5-10 9.5 9-9.5 9 8.5-9 8.5-9 8.5 11.5 11.5 11 11 10.5 10 10 9.5 9.5 9 9 9 8.5 8.5 9. 13. Nov. 21 . 26 . Dec. 24 . 8.5-9 9 8.5-9 8.5 9 9 8.5 8.5 1985—May 20 . 24 . 7.5-8 7.5 7.5 7.5 1986—Mar. 7 . 10 . Apr. 21 . 23. July 11 . 7-7.5 7 6.5-7 6.5 6 5.5-6 5.5 7 7 6.5 6.5 6 5.5 5.5 5.5-6 6 6 6 1984—Apr. Aug 12: 1987—Sept. 4 . 11 . 13 13 12 Effective date 1988—Aug. 9 . 11 . 6-6.5 6.5 1989—Feb. 24 27 6.5-7 7 1990—Dec. 19 .. . 1991—Feb. Apr. May Sept. Nov. Dec. 1992—July 1 4 30 2 13 17 6 7 20 24 2 .... 7 .... 1994—May 17 18 . . . . Aug. 16 . . . . 18 . . . . Nov. 15 17 . . . F.R. Bank of N.Y. 6.5 6.5 6.5 6-6.5 6 5.5-6 5.5 5-5.5 5 4.5-5 4.5 3.5 3-3.5 3 6 6 5.5 5.5 5 5 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 3 3 3-3.5 3.5 3.5^t 4 4-4.75 4.75 3.5 3.5 4 4 4.75 4.75 1 9 4.75-5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 1996—Jan. 31 Feb. 5 5.00-5.25 5.00 5.00 5.00 1998—Oct. 15 .. Oct. 16 .. 4.75-5.00 4.75 4.75 4.75 1998—Nov. 17 Nov. 19 4.50-4.75 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 1995—Feb. In effect Dec. 4, 1998 1. Available on a short-term basis to help depository institutions meet temporary needs for funds that cannot be met through reasonable alternative sources. The highest rate established for loans to depository institutions may be charged on adjustment credit loans of unusual size that result from a major operating problem at the borrower's facility. 2. Available to help relatively small depository institutions meet regular seasonal needs for funds that arise from a clear pattern of intrayearly movements in their deposits and loans and that cannot be met through special industry lenders. The discount rate on seasonal credit takes into account rates charged by market sources of funds and ordinarily is reestablished on the first business day of each two-week reserve maintenance period; however, it is never less than the discount rate applicable to adjustment credit. 3. May be made available to depository institutions when similar assistance is not reasonably available from other sources, including special industry lenders. Such credit may be provided when exceptional circumstances (including sustained deposit drains, impaired access to money market funds, or sudden deterioration in loan repayment performance) or practices involve only a particular institution, or to meet the needs of institutions experiencing difficulties adjusting to changing market conditions over a longer period (particularly at times of deposit disintermediation). The discount rate applicable to adjustment credit ordinarily is charged on extended-credit loans outstanding less than thirty days; however, at the discretion Range (or level)—All F.R. Banks of the Federal Reserve Bank, this time period may be shortened. Beyond this initial period, a flexible rate somewhat above rates charged on market sources of funds is charged. The rate ordinarily is reestablished on the first business day of each two-week reserve maintenance period, but it is never less than the discount rate applicable to adjustment credit plus 50 basis points. 4. For earlier data, see the following publications of the Board of Governors; Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914-1941, and 1941-1970; and the Annual Statistical Digest, 19701979. In 1980 and 1981. the Federal Reserve applied a surcharge to short-term adjustment-credit borrowings by institutions with deposits of $500 million or more that had borrowed in successive weeks or in more than four weeks in a calendar quarter. A 3 percent surcharge was in effect from Mar. 17, 1980. through May 7, 1980. A surcharge of 2 percent was reimposed on Nov. 17, 1980; the surcharge was subsequently raised to 3 percent on Dec. 5, 1980, and to 4 percent on May 5, 1981. The surcharge was reduced to 3 percent effective Sept. 22, 1981, and to 2 percent effective Oct. 12. 1981. As of Oct. 1, 1981, the formula for applying the surcharge was changed from a calendar quarter to a moving thirteen-week period. The surcharge was eliminated on Nov. 17, 1981. A8 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 1.15 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS' Requirement Type of deposit Percentage of deposits Net transaction accounts 1 $0 million-$47.8 million3 2 More than $47.8 million 3 10 3 Nonpersonal time deposits5 0 4 Eurocurrency liabilities6 0 1. Required reserves must be held in the form of deposits with Federal Reserve Banks or vault cash. Nonmember institutions may maintain reserve balances with a Federal Reserve Bank indirectly, on a pass-through basis, with certain approved institutions. For previous reserve requirements, see earlier editions of the Annual Report or the Federal Reserve Bulletin. Under the Monetary Control Act of 1980, depository institutions include commercial banks, mutual savings banks, savings and loan associations, credit unions, agencies and branches of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations. 2. Transaction accounts include all deposits against which the account holder is permitted to make withdrawals by negotiable or transferable instruments, payment orders of withdrawal, or telephone or preauthorized transfers for the purpose of making payments to third persons or others. However, accounts subject to the rules that permit no more than six preauthorized, automatic, or other transfers per month (of which no more than three may be by check, draft, debil card, or similar order payable directly to third parties) are savings deposits, not transaction accounts. 3. The Monetary Control Act of 1980 requires that the amount of transaction accounts against which the 3 percent reserve requirement applies be modified annually by 80 percent of the percentage change in transaction accounts held by all depository institutions, determined as of June 30 of each year. Effective with the reserve maintenance period beginning December 31, J998, for depository institutions that report weekly, and with the period beginning January 14, 1999, for institutions that report quarterly, the amount was decreased from $47.8 million to $46.5 million. Under the Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982, the Board adjusts the amount of reservable liabilities subject to a zero percent reserve requirement each year for the Effective date 12/31/98 12/31/98 12/27/90 12/27/90 succeeding calendar year by 80 percent of the percentage increase in the total reservable liabilities of all depository institutions, measured on an annual basis as of June 30. No corresponding adjustment is made in the event of a decrease. The exemption applies only to accounts that would be subject to a 3 percent reserve requirement. Effective with the reserve maintenance period beginning December 31, 1998, for depository institutions that report weekly, and with the period beginning January 14, 1999, for institutions that report quarterly, the exemption was raised from $4.7 million to $4.9 million. 4. The reserve requirement was reduced from 12 percent to 10 percent on Apr. 2, 1992, for institutions that report weekly, and on Apr. 16, 1992, for institutions that report quarterly. 5- For institutions that report weekly, the reserve requirement on nonpersonal time deposits with an original maturity of less than 1 x/i years was reduced from 3 percent to 1 l/i percent for the maintenance period that began Dec. 13, 1990, and to zero for the maintenance period that began Dec. 27, 1990. For institutions that report quarterly, the reserve requirement on nonpersonal time deposits with an original maturity of less than 1 [/z years was reduced from 3 percent to zero on Jan. 17, 1991. The reserve requirement on nonpersonal time deposits with an original maturity of 1 '/£ years or more has been zero since Oct. 6, 1983. 6. The reserve requirement on Eurocurrency liabilities was reduced from 3 percent to zero in the same manner and on the same dates as the reserve requirement on nonpersonal time deposits with an original maturity of less than 1 Vi years (see note 5). Policy Instruments A9 1.17 FEDERAL RESERVE OPEN MARKET TRANSACTIONS1 Millions of dollars 1998 Type of transaction and maturity Apr. May Sept. July U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Outright transactions (excluding matched transactions) Treasury bills Gross purchases Gross sales Exchanges For new bills Redemptions Others within one year Gross purchases Gross sales Maturity shifts Exchanges Redemptions One to five years Gross purchases Gross sales Maturity shifts Exchanges Five to ten years Gross purchases Gross sales Maturity shifts Exchanges More than ten years Gross purchases Gross sales Maturity shifts Exchanges All maturities Gross purchases Gross sales Redemptions Matched transactions 26 Gross purchases 27 Gross sales Repurchase agreements 28 Gross purchases 29 Gross sales 30 Net change in U.S. Treasury securities 10,932 0 405,296 405,296 900 9,901 0 426,928 426,928 0 9,147 0 436,257 435,907 0 0 0 34,025 34,025 0 3,550 0 46,802 46,802 0 0 0 35,190 35,190 0 0 0 32,830 32,830 0 0 0 40,312 40,312 0 0 0 34,607 34,607 0 0 0 33,140 33,140 0 390 0 43,574 -35,407 1,776 524 0 30,512 -41,394 2,015 5,549 0 41,716 -27,499 1,996 1,501 0 1,964 -5,736 0 1,369 0 4,369 -2,601 286 0 0 6,951 -4,990 0 0 0 1,520 -5,084 0 0 0 2,638 -2,242 1,311 986 0 6,367 -8,964 0 1,038 0 2,301 -2,242 0 5,366 0 -34,646 26,387 3,898 0 -25,022 31,459 19,680 0 -37,987 20,274 2,262 0 -1,964 5,736 2,993 0 -4,369 2,201 0 0 -6,620 2,270 0 0 -1,520 5,084 0 0 -2,638 1,842 535 0 -2,168 5,828 3,989 0 -2,301 2,242 1,432 0 -3,093 7,220 1,116 0 -5,469 6,666 3,849 0 -1,954 5,215 283 0 0 0 495 0 0 0 0 0 -331 2,720 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 303 0 -3,411 1,364 351 0 0 0 2,529 0 -2,253 1,800 1,655 0 -20 3,270 5,897 0 -1,775 2,360 743 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 1,769 0 -789 1,772 0 0 0 0 20,649 0 2,676 17,094 0 2,015 44,122 0 1,996 4.789 0 0 8,407 0 286 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,311 3,593 0 0 5,377 0 0 2,197,736 2,202,030 3,092,399 3,094,769 3,577,954 3,580,274 364,307 364,537 354,756 354,741 367,934 368,281 369,358 370,569 373,285 371,142 346,245 348,318 380,594 382,063 331,694 328,497 457,568 450,359 810,485 809,268 40,211 37,010 59,548 50,663 7,722 20,456 57,098 41,414 52,116 63,531 39,078 38,402 63,924 59,731 16,875 19,919 41,022 7,760 -13,081 14,473 -10,584 2,196 8,101 0 0 1,003 0 0 409 0 0 1,540 0 0 50 0 0 74 36,851 36,776 75,354 74,842 160,409 159,369 17,685 18,342 13,547 13,042 FEDERAL AGENCY OBLIGATIONS Outright transactions 31 Gross purchases 32 Gross sales 33 Redemptions Repurchase agreements 34 Gross purchases 35 Gross sales 36 Net change in federal agency obligations 37 Total net change in System Open Market Account 1,575 3,300 14,548 12,913 11,236 12,341 33,431 30,625 18,486 19,953 -928 103 -500 -707 431 -1,725 1,610 -1,105 2,731 -1.515 15,948 20,021 40,522 7,053 17,452 -14.806 16,083 -11,689 4,927 6,586 1. Sales, redemptions, and negative figures reduce holdings of the System Open Market Account; all other figures increase such holdings. 0 0 48 0 0 25 2. Transactions exclude changes in compensation for the effects of inflation on the principal of inflation-indexed securities. A10 1.18 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Condition and Federal Reserve Note Statements' Millions of dollars End of month Wednesday Sept. 30 Oct. 14 Oct. 21 Oct. 28 Aug. 31 Sept. 30 Oct. 31 Consolidated condition statement 11,044 9,200 417 11,044 9,200 409 11.044 9.200 411 11,044 9,200 413 11,041 9,200 458 11,046 9,200 423 11,044 9,200 417 11,041 9,200 426 Loans 4 To depository institutions 5 Other 6 Acceptances held under repurchase agreements 1,055 0 0 130 0 0 210 0 0 95 0 0 84 0 0 293 0 0 1,055 0 0 69 0 0 Federal agency obligations 7 Bought outright 8 Held under repurchase agreements 403 2,099 403 2,840 388 4,570 388 5,488 388 3,440 451 3,566 403 2,099 388 3,538 1 Gold certificate account 2 Special drawing rights certificate account 3 Coin 458,182 451,995 449,732 452,147 450,245 450,077 458,182 454,465 10 Bought outright2 11 Bills 12 Notes 13 Bonds 14 Held under repurchase agreements 446,047 195,864 184,186 65,996 12,135 447,457 196,216 184,187 67,054 4,538 447,687 196,445 184,188 67,054 2,045 448,032 197,387 183,591 67,055 4,115 447,966 196.578 184,333 67,055 2,279 442,135 197,334 178,826 65,975 7,942 446,047 195,864 184,186 65,996 12,135 450,179 197,450 185,033 67,696 4,286 15 Total loans and securities 461,738 455^68 454,899 458,117 454,157 454,386 461,738 458,460 6,454 1,295 8,040 1,296 11,600 1,296 6,965 1,296 6,398 1.295 2,465 1.293 6.454 1,295 4,702 1,293 18,448 15,880 18,458 14.451 18,467 14,532 18,477 14,701 18,486 15,114 17,601 13.671 18,448 15.880 19,573 15,976 524,476 518,266 521,449 520,213 516,148 510,087 524,476 520,672 9 Total US. Treasury securities 16 Items in process of collection. 17 Bank premises Other assets 18 Denominated in foreign currencies3 19 Allother 4 20 Total assets LIABILITIES 468.759 470.380 472,955 472,061 472.533 463,179 468.759 471,851 22 Total deposits 31353 23,865 21,861 24,190 20,448 27,520 31,353 25,568 23 24 25 26 25,706 4,952 347 349 17,950 5,291 196 427 16,380 4,895 189 397 18.773 4,842 177 13,385 6.382 213 467 20,321 6,704 162 332 25,706 4,952 347 349 20,592 4,440 154 380 6,711 4,637 7,123 4,506 9,755 4.451 6,937 4,588 6,240 4,477 1,968 4,750 6,711 4.637 5,012 4,518 511,460 505,874 509,022 507,776 503,697 497,417 511,460 506,948 5,910 5,220 1,886 5,914 5,220 1,257 5,915 5,220 1,292 5,916 5.220 1.300 5,919 5,220 1,311 5,866 5,220 1,583 5,910 5,220 1,886 5,920 5,220 2,583 524,476 518,266 521,449 520,213 516,148 510,087 524,476 520,672 569,016 571,910 571.910 576,334 573,571 564.692 576,466 21 Federal Reserve notes Depository institutions U.S. Treasury—General account Foreign—Official accounts Other 27 Deferred credit items 28 Other liabilities and accrued dividends5 29 Total liabilities CAPITAL ACCOUNTS 30 Capital paid in 31 Surplus 32 Other capital accounts. 33 Total liabilities and capital accounts MEMO 34 Marketable U.S. Treasury securities held in custody for foreign and international accounts Federal Reserve note statement 35 Federal Reserve notes outstanding (issued to Banks) . 36 LESS: Held by Federal Reserve Banks 37 Federal Reserve notes, net 38 39 40 41 Collateral held against notes, net Gold certificate account Special drawing rights certificate account Other eligible assets U.S. Treasury and agency securities 42 Total collateral 580,575 111,817 468,759 583,371 112,991 470,380 585,227 112,272 472,955 586,916 114,855 472,061 587,780 115,247 472,533 574,813 111,635 463,179 580,575 111,817 468,759 588,229 116,378 471,851 11,044 9.200 0 448.515 11,044 9,200 0 450,137 11,044 9,200 0 452,711 11,044 9,200 0 451,817 11,041 9,200 0 452,292 11,046 9,200 0 442,932 11,044 9,200 0 448,515 11,041 9,200 0 451,610 468,759 470,380 472,955 472,061 472,533 463,179 468,759 471,851 1. Some of the data in this table also appear in the Board's H.4.1 (503) weekly statistical release. For ordering address, see inside front cover. 2. Includes securities loaned—fully guaranteed by U.S. Treasury securities pledged with Federal Reserve Banks—and includes compensation that adjusts for the effects of inflation on the principal of inflation-indexed securities. Excludes securities sold and scheduled to be bought back under matched sale-purchase transactions. 3. Valued monthly at market exchange rates. 4. Includes special investment account at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in Treasury bills maturing within ninety days. 5. Includes exchange-translation account reflecting the monthly revaluation at market exchange rates of foreign exchange commitments. Federal Reserve Banks A11 1.19 FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Maturity Distribution of Loan and Security Holding Millions of dollars Wednesday Type of holding and maturity Sept. 30 1 Total loans 2 Within fifteen days' 3 Sixteen days to ninety days 4 Total US. Treasury securities2 5 6 7 8 9 ]0 11 Within fifteen days' Sixteen days to ninety days Ninety-one days to one year One year to five years Five years to ten years More than ten years Total federal agency obligations 12 13 14 15 16 17 Within fifteen days' Sixteen days to ninety days Ninety-one days to one year One year to five years Five years to ten years More than ten years 1,055 Oct. 14 Oct. 28 Aug. 31 Sept. 30 Oct. 30 293 233 76 8 176 117 155 78 51 18 95 130 973 82 26 104 113 97 458,182 451,995 449,732 452,147 450,245 442,135 458,182 454,465 20,310 90,644 145.875 105,789 41,628 53,936 13.238 93,791 142,555 105,789 41,628 54,994 17.052 93,953 136.315 105.789 41,629 54,994 13.874 94,188 141,674 105,383 42,033 54,994 12,666 92,901 142,266 105.384 42,033 54,994 15.104 92,231 145,997 101,535 41,276 53,935 20.310 90,644 145,875 105.789 41.628 53,936 8.752 100,244 141,715 106,109 42,034 55,611 2,502 3,243 4,958 5,876 3,828 4,017 2,502 3,926 2,099 50 75 93 185 2,840 50 85 83 185 0 4,570 50 85 68 185 0 5,488 50 85 68 185 0 3,440 50 85 58 185 0 3,614 5 120 93 185 n.a. 2,099 50 75 93 185 n.a. 3,538 52 93 58 185 0 1. Holdings under repurchase agreements are classified as maturing within fifteen days in accordance with maximum maturity of the agreements. Oct. 21 2. Includes compensation that adjusts for the effects of inflation on the principal of ^Ration-indexed securities. A12 1.20 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND MONETARY BASE1 Billions of dollars, average:* of daily figures 1994 Dec. 1995 Dec. 1996 Dec. 1997 Dec. Apr. Total reserves3 Nonborrowed reserves4 Nonborrowed reserves plus extended credit5 Required reserves Monetary base July Aug. Sept. 45.39 45.14 45.14 43.77 491.63 44.81 44.56 44.56 43.45 493.70' 45.00 44.73 44.73 43.48 497.37' 44.59 44.33' 44.33' 42.90 502.16' 44.39 44.22 44.22 42.81 506.06 Seasonally adjusted ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS 1 2 3 4 5 May 59.41 59.20 59.20 58.24 418.12 56.40 56.14 56.14 55.12 434.17 50.08 49.93 49.93 48.66 452.38 46.67 46.35 46.35 44.99 480.15 46.05 46.00 46.00 44.73 485.86 45.96 45.89 45.89 44.61 487.20 45.59 45.44 45.44 44.44 489.10 Not seasonally adjusted 6 7 8 9 10 7 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Nonborrowed reserves plus extended credit5 Required reserves8 Monetary base9 61.13 60.92 60.92 59.96 422.51 58.02 57.76 57.76 56.74 439.03 51.52 51.37 51.37 50.10 456.72 47.97 47.65 47.65 46.29 485.11 45.54 45.50 45.50 44.23 484.00 46.53 46.45 46.45 45.18 487.36 44.87 44.71 44.71 43.72 488.28 45.17 44.92 44.92 43.55 491.18 44.69 44.43 44.43 43.32 495.35' 44.81 44.54 44.54 43.30 497.56' 44.31 44.06 44.06 42.63 501.04' 44.25 44.08 44.08 42.67 504.55 61.34 61.13 61.13 60.17 427.25 1.17 .21 57.90 57.64 57.64 56.62 444.45 1.28 .26 51.24 51.09 51.09 49.82 463.49 1.42 .16 47.88 47.56 47.56 46.20 491.92 1.68 .32 45.51 45.47 45.47 44.19 490.96 1.31 .04 46.48 46.40 46.40 45.13 494.11 1.35 .07 44.81 44.65 44.65 43.66 494.95 1.15 .15 45.10 44.84 44.84 43.48 497.93 1.62 .25 44.60 44.34 44.34 43.24 502.2O1 1.37 .26 44.71 44.44 44.44 43.19 504.46' 1.51 .27 44.19' 43.94 43.94 42.51 507.85' 1.68' .25 44.12 NOT ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Total reserves" Nonborrowed reserves NonboiTowed reserves plus extended credit5 Required reserves Monetary base Excess reserves13 Borrowings from the Federal Reserve 1. Latest monthly and biweekly figures are available from the Board's H.3 (502) weekly statistical release. Historical data starting in 1959 and estimates of the effect on required reserves of changes in reserve requirements are available from the Money and Reserves Projections Section, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. 2. Figures reflect adjustments for discontinuities, or "breaks," associated with regulatory changes in reserve requirements. (See also table 1.10.) 3. Seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted total reserves equal seasonally adjusted, breakadjusted required reserves (line 4) plus excess reserves (line 16). 4. Seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted nonborrowed reserves equal seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted total reserves (line 1) less total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (line 17). 5. Extended credit consists of borrowing at the discount window under the terms and conditions established for the extended credit program to help depository institutions deal with sustained liquidity pressures. Because there is not the same need to repay such borrowing promptly as with traditional short-term adjustment credit, the money market effect of extended credit is similar to that of nonborrowed reserves. 6. The seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted monetary base consists of (1) seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted total reserves (line 1), plus (2) the seasonally adjusted currency component of the money stock, plus (3) (for all quarterly reporters on the "Report of Transaction Accounts, Other Deposits and Vault Cash" and for all those weekly reporters whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves) the seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted difference between current vault cash and the amount applied to satisfy current reserve requirements. 7. Break-adjusted total reserves equal break-adjusted required reserves (line 9) plus excess reserves (line 16). 43.95 43.95 42.54 511.40 1.58 .17 8. To adjust required reserves for discontinuities that are due to regulatory changes in reserve requirements, a multiplicative procedure is used to estimate what required reserves would have been in past periods had current reserve requirements been in effect. Breakadjusted required reserves include required reserves against transactions deposits and nonpersonal time and savings deposits (but not reservable nondeposit liabilities). 9. The break-adjusted monetary base equals (1) break-adjusted total reserves (line 6), plus (2) the (unadjusted) currency component of the money stock, plus (3) (for all quarterly reporters on the "Report of Transaction Accounts, Other Deposits and Vault Cash" and for all those weekly reporters whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves) the break-adjusted difference between current vault cash and the amount applied to satisfy current reserve requirements. 10. Reflects actual reserve requirements, including those on nondeposit liabilities, with no adjustments to eliminate the effects of discontinuities associated with regulatory changes in reserve requirements. 11. Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks plus vault cash used to satisfy reserve requirements. 12. The monetary base, not break-adjusted and not seasonally adjusted, consists of (1) total reserves (line 11), plus (2) required clearing balances and adjustments to compensate for float at Federal Reserve Banks, plus (3) the currency component of the money stock, plus (4) (for all quarterly reporters on the "Report of Transaction Accounts, Other Deposits and Vault Cash" and for all those weekly reporters whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves) the difference between current vault cash and the amount applied to satisfy current reserve requirements. Since the introduction of contemporaneous reserve requirements in February 1984, currency and vault cash figures have been measured over the computation periods ending on Mondays. 13. Unadjusted total reserves (line 11) less unadjusted required reserves (line 14). Monetary and Credit Aggregates A13 1.21 MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES1 Billions of dollars, averages of daily figures 1998' 1994 Dec. 1995 Dec. 1996 Dec. 1997 Dec. July Aug. Sept. Oct. Seasonally adjusted 1 2 3 4 5 Measures Ml M2 M3 L Debt 6 7 8 9 Ml components Currency Travelers checks4 Demand deposits Other checkable deposits6 1,150.7 3,503.0 4,333.6 5.315.8 12,999.5 1,128.7 3,651.2 4,595.6 5,702.3 13,697.6 1,082.8 3,826.1 4,931.1 6,083.6 14,425.2 1,076.0 4,046.4 5,376.8 6,611.3 15,167.4' 1,071.8 4,213.2 5,653.0 6,926.3 15.714.3 1,069.0 4,243.2 5,708.7 6,981.5 15,790.9 1,072.2 4,295.6 5,777.7 6,588.6 15,864.3 1,078.5 4,339.6 5,843.2 n.a. n.a. 354.3 8.5 384.0 403.9 372.4 8.9 391.0 356.4 394.9 8.6 403.6 275.9 425.5 8.2 397.1 245.2 441.3 7.7 378.0 244.8 443.8 7.8 374.2 243.2 449.6 7.9 373.6 241.2 453.4 8.0 374.1 243.1 2,352.3 830.6 2,522.6 944.4 2,743.2 1.105.0 2,970.4 1.330.4 3,141.4 1,439.8 3,174.2 1,465.5 3,223.4 1,482.2 3,261.1 1,503.6 Commercial banks 12 Savings deposits, including MMDAs 13 Small time deposits 14 Large time deposits10" " 752.6 503.2 298.7 775.0 575.8 345.4 904.8 594.5 413.2 1,020.9 625.7 487.5 1,103.8 623.6 522.7 1,117,8 626.5 527.8 1,135.2 627.4 526.6 1,148.9 628.3 527.4 Thrift institutions 15 Savings deposits, including MMDAs 16 Small time deposits 17 Large time deposits 397.3 314.2 64.7 359.7 357.2 74.2 366.9 354.3 78.0 376.6 343.9 85.4 399.2 337.4 86.8 400.1 333.9 86.2 402.6 334.2 86.4 406.5 334.4 86.9 Money market mutual funds 18 Retail 19 Institution-only 385.0 203.1 454.9 253.9 522.8 310.3 603.2 376.2 677.4 430.2 696.1 443.3 724.1 457.5 743.1 480.7 Repurchase agreements and Eurodollars 20 Repurchase agreements 21 Eurodollars12 183.3 80.8 182.4 88.6 194.2 109.2 236.1 145.3 258.1 142.1 265.1 143.1 272.2 139.4 267.6 140.9 3,492.4 9,507.0 3,638.9 10,058.7 3,780.6 10,644.7 3,798.4 ll^.O1 3,772.9 11,941.4 3,770.3 12,020.6 3,760.0 12,104.3 n.a. n.a. Nontransaction components 10 In M27 U In M3 only8 Debt components 22 Federal debt 23 Nonfederal debt Not seasonally adjusted 24 25 26 27 28 Measures2 Ml M2 M3 L Debt 29 30 31 32 Ml components Currency3 Travelers checks Demand deposits5 Other checkable deposits 1,174.4 3,523.4 4,353.2 5,344.6 13,002.0 1,152.4 3,672.0 4,615.2 5,732.8 13,699.1 1,104.9 3,845.4 4,948.9 6,111.6 14,425.5 1,097.6 4,065.3 5,394.0 6,636.7 15,166.9' 1,072.8 4,213.7 5,644.9 6,911.6 15,666.0 1,067.7 4,247.6 5,709.8 6,983.1 15,746.0 1,068.9 4,286.9 5,762.1 6,574.0 15,828.1 1.074.7 4.325.5 5,834.2 n.a. n.a. 357.5 8.1 400.3 408.6 376.2 8.5 407.2 360.5 397.9 8.3 419.9 278.8 429.0 7.9 413.0 247.7 442.7 8.2 378.8 243.1 444.3 8.2 374.2 241.0 448.3 8.1 372.6 239.9 452.5 8.1 372.8 241.3 2,349.0 829.7 2,519.6 943.2 2,740.5 1,103.5 2,967.8 1,328.6 3,141.0 1,431.2 3,179.9 1,462.2 3,217.9 1,475.3 3,250.8 1,508.7 Commercial banks 35 Savings deposits, including MMDAs . . 36 Small time deposits9 37 Large time deposits10' " 751.7 501.5 298.9 774.1 573.8 345.8 903.3 592.7 413.6 1,019.0 624.1 488.0 1,106.3 624.3 521.8 1,120.1 626.6 528.0 1,133.5 627.0 529.0 1,144.7 628.3 535.5 Thrift institutions 38 Savings deposits, including MMDAs . 39 Small time deposits9 40 Large time deposits 396.8 313.2 64.8 359.2 355.9 74.3 366.4 353.2 78.1 375.9 3*3.0 85.4 400.1 337.8 86.7 400.9 333.9 86.2 402.0 333.9 86.8 405.0 334.4 88.3 Money market mutual funds 41 Retail 42 Insiitution-only 385.9 204.6 456.4 255.8 524 8 312.7 605.8 378.9 672.6 425.3 698.4 441.1 721.6 451.3 738.4 475.4 Repurchase agreements and Eurodollars 43 Repurchase agreements 44 Eurodollars12 179.6 81.8 178.0 89.4 188.8 110.3 229.4 146.9 258.4 139.0 265.6 141.4 270.2 137.9 270.1 139.5 3,499.0 9.503.1 3,645.9 10,053.1 3,787.9 10,637.6 3,805.8 11,361.1' 3,740.8 11,925.2 3,749.6 11,996.4 3,743.4 12,084.7 Nontransaction components 33 In M27 34 In M3 only8 Debt componrnis 45 Federal debt 46 Nonfederal debt Footnotes appear on following page. n.a. n.a. A14 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 NOTES TO TABLE 1.21 1. Latest monthly and weekly figures are available from the Board's H.6 (508) weekly statistical release. Historical data starting in 1959 are available from the Money and Reserves Projections Section, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. 2. Composition of the money stock measures and debt is as follows: Ml: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions, (2) travelers checks of nonbank issuers, (3) demand deposits at all commercial banks other than those owed to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions, less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) and automatic transfer service (ATS) accounts at depository institutions, credit union share draft accounts, and demzind deposits at thrift institutions. Seasonally adjusted Ml is computed by summing currency, travelers checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately. M2: Ml plus (1) savings deposits (including MMDAs), (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits—including retail RPs—in amounts of less than $100,000), and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000). Excludes individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and Keogh balances at depository institutions and money market funds. Seasonally adjusted M2 is calculated by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money fund balances, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted Ml. M3: M2 plus (I) large-denomination time deposits (in amounts of $100,000 or more) issued by all depository institutions, (2) balances in institutional money funds (money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more), (3) RP liabilities (overnight and term) issued by all depository institutions, and (4) Eurodollars (overnight and term) held by US. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks worldwide and at all banking offices in the United Kingdom and Canada. Excludes amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, money market funds, and foreign banks and official institutions. Seasonally adjusted M3 is calculated by summing large time deposits, institutional money fund balances, RP liabilities, and Eurodollars, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M2. L: M3 plus the nonbank public holdings of U.S. savings bonds, short-term Treasury securities, commercial paper, and bankers acceptances, net of money market fund holdings of these assets. Seasonally adjusted L is computed by summing US. savings bonds, short-term Treasury securities, commercial paper, and bankers acceptances, each seasonally adjusted separately, and then adding this result to M3. Debt: The debt aggregate is the outstanding credit market debt of the domestic nonfinancial sectors—the federal sector (U.S. government, not including government-sponsored enterprises or federally related mortgage pools) and the nonfederal sectors (state and local governments, households and nonprofit organizaiions, nonfinancia) corporate and nonfami noncorporate businesses, and farms). Nonfederal debl consisls of mortgages, tax-exempt and corporate bonds, consumer credit, bank loans, commercial paper, and other loans. The data, which are derived from the Federal Reserve Board's flow of funds accounts, are breakadjusted (that is, discontinuilies in the data have been smoolhed into the series) and month-averaged (that is, the data have been derived by averaging adjacent month-end levels). 3. Currency outside the US. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and vaults of depository institutions. 4. Outstanding amount of U.S. dollar-denominated travelers checks of nonbanV issuers. Travelers checks issued by depository institutions are included in demand deposits. 5. Demand deposits at commercial banks and foreign-related institutions other than those owed to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions, less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float. 6. Consists of NOW and ATS account balances at all depository institutions, credit union share draft account balances, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. 7. Sum of (1) savings deposils (including MMDAs), (2) small lime deposits, and (3) retail money fund balances. 8. Sum of (1) large time deposits, (2) institutional money fund balances, (3) RP liabilities (overnight and term) issued by depository institutions, and (4) Eurodollars (overnight and term) of US. addressees. 9. Small time deposits—including retail RPs—are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. All IRAs and Keogh accounts at commercial banks and thrift institutions are subtracted from small time deposils. 10. Large time deposits are those issued in amounts of $100,000 or more, excluding those booked at international banking facilities. 11. Large time deposits at commercial banks less those held by money market funds, depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions. 12. Includes both overnight and term. Commercial Banking Institutions—Assets and Liabilities A15 1.26 COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES Assets and Liabilities1 A. All commercial banks Billion? of dollars Wednesday figures Monthly averages 1998r Apr. May June July 1998 Aug. Sept. Oct. 7 Oct. 28 Seasonally adjusted 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Assets Bank credit Securities in bank credit U.S. government securities . .. Other securities Loans and leases in bank credit2 Commercial and industrial . . . Real estate Revolving home equity . . Other Consumer Security3 Other loans and leases Interbank loans Cash assets" Other assets5 16 Total assets* 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the U.S From others Net due torelatedforeign offices . Other liabilities 4,250.2 1,126.1 772.0 354.0 3,124.1 883.2 1,271.4 97.8 1,173.6 506.0 123.0 340.5 202.7 251.0 312.5 4,260.9 1,120.4 755.7 364.7 3,140.5 896.7 1,267.8 97.5 1,170.4 502.0 130.1 343.8 218.1 251.3 312.4 4,276.7 1,128.6 759.7 368.9 3,148.1 901.5 1.269.6 97.2 1,172.4 494.3 132.3 350.4 214.4 244.2 308.4 4,338.5 1,154.0 769.9 384.1 3,184.5 910.0 1,278.8 97.1 1,181.7 493.3 139.0 363.3 209.0 252.5 310.7 4,394.4 1,173.7 765.6 408.0 3,220.7 921.8 1,280.1 97.5 1,182.6 496.5 144.4 377.9 222.8 253.4 315.2 4,490.5 1,218.3 773.0 445.3 3,272.2 943.1 1,285.9 96.9 1,189.0 495.9 159.5 387.9 226.2 243.8 310.5 4,463.0 1.204.7 758.8 445.8 3,258.3 931.5 1,284.1 95.9 1,188.2 496.0 161.6 385.1 223.2 241.2 310.9 4,473.0 1,203.8 766.9 436.9 1,219.5 95.9 1,123.6 507.9 104.3 314.4 195.2 261.5 290.3 4,222.1 1,109.9 764.9 345.0 3,112.2 869.8 1,273.5 98.4 1,175.1 506.1 117.8 345.0 214.6 268.8 308.5 4,721.7 4^>5&5 4.9S&8 4,9853 4.986.4 5^053.7 5,1283 5,213.4 3,065.7 685.5 2,380.2 620.2 1,760.0 799.9 293.2 506.7 189.4 269.6 3,211.9 696.5 2,515.4 674.5 1,840.8 870.8 305.8 565.0 179.8 295.4 3,205.4 687.4 2,518.1 674.9 1,843.2 861.9 282.1 579.8 174.4 299.3 3,223.0 682.7 2,540.3 685.1 1,855.2 857.8 287.9 569.9 170.6 308.3 3,197.1 666.8 2,530.3 667.3 1,863.0 857.4 289.6 567.8 186.1 317.1 3,228.8 667.6 2,561.2 679.2 1,882.0 861.4 293.5 567.9 201.2 325.4 3,250.1 677.1 2,573.0 684.3 1,888.7 889.7 303.2 586.5 200.1 335.0 4557.9 4^41.0 4^59.7 4557.7 4,616.7 398.6 417.8 425.7 428.7 436.9 4,031.3 1,043.7 731.5 312.2 2,987.5 841.4 27 Total liabilities 28 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 4,513.6 3,269.2 939.9 1,281.7 95.9 1.184.8 494.0 160.5 393.2 216.7 249.2 310.3 4.503.5 1.232.5 mi 454.9 3,271.0 948.0 1,281.3 97.2 1,184.1 496.5 159.5 385.7 230.7 247.5 311.4 5,180.6 5,191.5 5,235.4 5,237.1 3,274.1 668.2 2,605.9 697.0 1,908.9 939.6 318.5 621.1 2211 355.5 3,253.8 648.9 2,604.9 692.0 1,912.9 920.5 314.5 606.0 211.2 362.4 3,283.9 674.1 2,609.9 695.0 1,914.8 921.4 317.5 603.9 211.0 360.3 3,269.6 670.1 2,599.6 699.7 1,899.8 949.4 321.4 628.1 231.0 362.1 3.278.9 683.8 2,595.1 699.6 1,895.5 957.4 320.8 636.6 235.6 344.5 4^75.0 4,7923 4,747.9 4,776.7 4.812.2 4^163 453.5 421.1 432.7 414.7 423.2 420.8 1,230.0 783.6 446.5 3,283.6 950.3 1.2901 97.2 1,192.9 496.4 157.3 389.5 234.9 238.7 307.8 Not seasonally adjusted Assets 29 Bank credit 30 Securities in bank credit 31 U.S. government securities 32 Other securities 33 Loans and leases in bank credit2 .. 34 Commercial and industrial 35 Real estate 36 Revolving home equity 37 Other 38 Consumer 4,036.1 40 Other loans and leases 41 Interbank loans 42 Cash assets4 43 Other assets5 1.041.9 730.1 3)1.8 2.994.2 839.3 1,225.7 96.7 1,129.0 509.8 104.4 315.0 191.2 265.5 289.5 44 Total assets' 4,725.9 39 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Security' Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the U.S From others Net due to related foreign offices Other liabilities 55 Total liabilities 56 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 4,227.1 1,121.1 773.3 347.8 3,106.0 877.4 1267.0 97.5 1.169.5 501.1 119.2 341.4 217.3 264.2 306.9 4,245.2 1.130.8 776.7 354.1 3.114.4 888.7 1,265.1 97.5 1,167.7 500.7 122.5 337.3 198.3 246.6 311.9 4,262.4 1,123.4 758.2 365.2 3,139.0 899.4 1,265.4 97.2 1.168.3 499.2 130.0 344.9 214.8 246.3 310.9 4.270.6 1.123.0 755.8 367.2 3,147.7 901.1 1,271.7 97.2 1,174.5 492.4 130.1 352.4 208.0 239.8 309.7 4,324.9 1,145.5 765.1 380.4 3,179.4 904.0 1,282.4 97.3 1,185.1 495.0 134.4 363.7 2019 240.1 312.7 4,381.3 1.161.6 760.5 401.1 3,219.7 916.3 1,285.1 98.2 1,186.9 499.3 141.0 378.1 217.2 251.3 316.4 4 494.1 1,214.6 770.4 444.2 3,279.4 941.1 1,292.6 97.7 1,194.9 497.7 160.0 388.1 222.3 247.6 309.7 4,460.6 1,197.5 754 2 443.3 3,263.1 930.1 1,291.0 96.7 1.194.3 496.9 159.4 385.6 221.8 239.6 311.4 4.477.9 1,199.3 762.4 436.8 3,278.6 936.9 1,289.2 97.7 1,191.5 495.3 162.1 395.1 214.1 272.2 311.0 4,501.3 1,225.1 775.0 450.1 3,276.2 945.0 1,287.3 97.9 1,189.4 498.6 160.3 385.0 222.0 242.1 307.9 4,517.4 1,229.2 782.6 446.7 3,288.1 947.8 1,295.9 98.0 1,197.8 499.1 157.4 387.9 227.0 238.2 305.7 4.944.6 4^76.9 4^>70.7 5,0223 5,108.6 5,215.9 5,175.4 5,217.5 5,215.6 5,230.5 3.188.9 675.5 2,513.4 675.2 1,838.3 867.5 283.3 584.2 183.0 298.8 3,215.0 677.7 2,537.3 682.8 1,854.6 867.5 290.8 576.7 176.5 307.5 3,189.6 661.9 2,527.7 664.0 1,863.6 861.9 289.8 572.1 188.2 316.4 3,218.6 654.2 2,564.4 678.2 1,886.2 854.4 289.5 564.9 201.6 325.4 3,254.3 672.4 2,581.9 686.0 1,895.9 893.2 302.0 591.1 200.2 334.8 3,277.8 664.1 2.613.7 701.0 1,912.7 935.8 314.5 621.4 220.0 355.2 3,270.7 647.7 2,623.0 696.2 1.926.7 910.8 309.0 601.8 203.9 361.5 3,308.2 688.8 2,6194 697.3 1,922.1 917.0 313.1 603.8 208.6 359.8 3,253.3 650.6 2,602.7 702.8 1,899.9 946.3 317.2 629.1 228.4 361.7 2,593.0 705.2 1,887.8 958.4 317.8 640.7 237.5 344.9 3,068.6 681.8 2,386.8 624.0 1,762.8 796.0 289.7 506.3 187.0 269.4 3,211.3 701.6 2,509.7 669.0 1,840.6 870.3 305.0 565.3 178.9 294.6 4321.0 435S.1 4.566.6 4356.1 4,600.0 4,682.4 4,788* 4,746.9 4,793.6 4,789.7 4^02.1 404.9 403.1 410.3 414.6 422.2 426.2 427.1 428.5 423.9 425.9 428.4 79.7 83.9 92.8 92.8 95.7 109.5 133.0 143.2 135.4 134.8 125.2 90.8 90.6 110.3 131.0 140.6 133.6 132.6 123.4 3,261.3 668.3 MEMO 57 Revaluation gains on off-balance-sheet items8 58 Revaluation losses on off-balancesheet items* Footnotes appear on p. A21. 81.3 84.5 85.9 85.0 96.5 A16 1.26 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES Assets and Liabilities'—Continued B. Domestically chartered commercial banks Billions of dollars Wednesday figures Monthly averages Account 1997 Oct. 1998 1998" Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Oct. 7 Oct. 14 Oct. 21 Oct. 28 Seasonally adjusted 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Assets Bank credit Securities in bank credit U.S. government securities Other securities Loans and leases in bank credit2 Commercial and industrial Real estate Revolving home equity Other Consumer Security3 Other loans and leases Interbank loans Cash assets4 Other assets5 16 Total assets6 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the US From others Net due to related foreign offices Other liabilities .... 27 Total liabilities 28 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 3,493.2' 868.6 650.7 217.9 2,624.6' 618.9' 1,192.1' 95.9 1,096.2' 507.9 57.3 248.4' 174.7 227.1 246.6 3,664.1 915.6 675,8 239,9 2,748.5 656.8 1,248.5 98.4 1.150.1 506.1 63.6 273.5 192 0 233.2 272.3 3,686.1 928.9 682.9 246.0 2.757.2 671.5 1,247.0 97.8 1,149.2 506.0 61.8 270.8 180.9 216.3 278.4 3,693.7 921.2 668.3 252.9 2,772.5 683.9 1,243.7 97.5 1,146.2 502.0 67.5 275.4 194 2 216.0 278.3 3,704.3 928.6 669.5 259.1 2,775.7 685.6 1,245.7 97.2 1,148.5 494.3 69.8 2803 192.4 209.0 274.2 3,748.4 943.1 677.0 266.1 2,8053 693.1 1,255.1 97.1 1,158.0 493.3 73.5 290.2 186.5 218.5 275.0 3,788.2 960.2 684.8 275.4 2,828.0 700.5 1.256.8 97.5 1,159.3 496.5 75.3 298.8 191.7 219.1 2773 3,858.6 994.8 694.5 300.4 2,863.8 714.7 1,262.9 96.9 1,166.0 495.9 87.9 302.4 196.8 208.0 271.0 3,826 0 978.3 679.9 298.4 2.847.7 705.6 1,260.3 95.9 1,164.4 496.0 86.7 299.1 192.9 205.1 270.4 3,847.4 986.6 690.8 295.8 2,860.7 712.7 1,259.0 96.9 1,162.1 494.0 88.1 307.0 188.2 212.8 269.4 3,868.2 1,005.5 700.0 305.5 2,862.6 717.5 1,258.7 97.2 1,161.5 496.5 89.3 300.7 199.5 210.4 272.5 3,881.3 1,007.3 703.3 304.0 2,874.1 720.7 1,267.0 97.2 1,169.8 496.4 86.8 303.2 206.4 204.4 269.4 4,085.4' 4304.5 43043 4325.0 4322.8 4371.7 4,419.3 4,477.0 4,437.0 4,460.2 4,493.0 4,504.1 2,798.0' 675.0' 2,123.0 366.1 1,756.8 644.1' 259.4' 384.7 70.9 177.9 2,917.8 684.2 2,233.6 394.5 1,839.1 704.8 279.2 425.6 77,4 210,2 2,910.2 675.8 2,234.3 391.7 1,842.7 698.5 259.7 438.8 73.3 211.9 2,920.3 671.6 2,248.8 393.2 1,855.6 690.7 258.3 432.4 73.4 218.1 2,899.8 653.4 2,246.4 384.5 1,861.9 687.5 262.8 424.7 793 224.0 2,922.6 655.8 2,266.8 384.0 1,882.8 691.4 269.5 422.0 92.8 226.6 2.935.3 6623 2,273.0 382.9 1,890.1 705.4 270.7 434,8 105,0 230.5 2,953.7 653.6 2,300.1 395.1 1,905.0 745.4 282.6 462.8 117.7 241.7 2.927.5 634.6 2.292.9 386.9 1,906.0 730.7 282,4 448 2 101.6 246.2 2,962.2 658.2 2,304.0 391.6 1,9123 725.8 282.7 443.1 113.7 242.6 2.949.2 655.2 2,294.0 396.9 1,897.0 754.1 282.0 472.1 124.6 242.1 2,963.0 670.0 2,293.0 401.3 1,891.7 761.2 282.7 478.5 130.0 239.7 3,691.0' 3,910.2 3,893.8 3,902.5 3,890.6 3,933.5 3,976.3 4,058.4 4,005.9 4,0443 4,070.0 4,093.8 394.4 394.3 410.6 422.6 432.2 438.2 443.0 418.5 431.1 416.0 423.0 410.2 Not seasonally adjusted 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Assets Bank credit Securities in bank credit U.S. government securities Other securities Loans and leases in bank credit2 Commercial and industrial Real estate Revolving home equity Other Consumer Security3 Other loans and leases Interbank loans Cash assets4 Other assets5 .... 44 Total assets6 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the U.S From others Net due to related foreign offices Other liabilities 55 Total liabilities 3,498.3' 866.0 648.8 217.3 2,632.3' 617.1" 1,198.0" 96.7 1,101.3' 509.8 57.4 250.0' 170.7 230.8 246.8 3,668.9 924.8 685.5 239.3 2,744.1 6643 1,242.2 97,5 1,144,7 501,1 65 7 270^8 194.7 230.3 272.7 3.679.5 929.7 687.0 242.7 2,749.8 677.6 1,240.9 97.5 1,143.4 500.7 61.9 268.7 176.5 212.2 277.4 3,692.1 921.0 670.7 250.3 2,771.1 686.7 1,241.5 97.2 1,144.3 499.2 67 7 276.1 190.9 210.0 277.5 3,695.4 920.2 666.0 254.3 2,775.2 685.5 1,248.0 97.2 1,150.8 492.4 68.2 281.1 186.0 204.7 275.9 3,732.4 930.4 671.4 259.0 2,802.0 688.2 1,258.8 97.3 1,161.5 495.0 69 8 2903 179.4 206.1 276.1 3,780.3 951.5 679.8 271.7 2,828.8 696.1 1,261.7 98.2 1.163.5 4993 72.2 299.5 186.0 216.9 278.5 3,862.8 990.8 691.4 299.5 2,872.0 712.8 1,269.3 97.7 1,171.6 497.7 88 3 303.9 192.9 211.6 271.2 3,827.5 974.1 676.0 298.1 2,853.4 704.3 1,266.9 96.7 1,170.2 496.9 84 3 30l'i 191.5 203.9 271.8 3.851.0 979.8 686.1 293.7 2,871.1 7103 1.2663 97.7 1,168.6 495.3 89 1 3io!i 185.6 235.7 271.1 3.867.2 997.9 696.5 301.4 2,869.3 715.1 1,264.5 97.9 1,166.5 498.6 90.2 301.0 190.8 204.7 270.1 3.885.2 1,005.1 701.3 303.8 2,880.1 718.0 1,272.5 98.0 1,174.5 499.1 87 2 3033 198.5 203.1 268.4 4,090.5' 4309.7 4,288.4 4313.4 4304.8 4336.9 4,404.4 4,480.9 4,437.0 4,485.8 4,475.3 4,497.8 2 801 2' 671.3' 2,129.8 369.1 1,760.7' 640.2' 255.9' 384.3 69.3 177.9 29189 689.8 2,229 2 3903 1,838.9 704 2 278.4 425.9 78.0 210.2 2 890 9 664.3 2 226 7 389^9 1,836.7 704.1 260.9 443.2 80.9 211.9 29106 666.6 2,244 0 390.8 1,853.2 700 4 261.2 439.2 80.1 218.1 2,894.1 648.4 2.245.7 383.4 1,8623 692.0 263.0 429.0 84.9 224.0 2,913.7 642.4 2,271.2 '386.4 1,884.9 684.5 265.5 419.0 96.7 226.6 2.937.9 656.9 2.280.9 386.4 1.894.6 708.9 269.5 439.4 106.7 230.5 2,958.0 649.6 2,308.4 398.5 1,909.9 741.7 278.6 463.1 115.5 241.7 2.943.6 633.6 2 309 9 '390.4 1,919,5 721.0 276.9 444 1 98.6 246.2 2,988.0 672.8 2,315.2 394.4 1.920.8 721.4 2783 443.1 111.4 242.6 2,934.2 635.8 2,298.4 400.0 1.898.4 751.0 277.9 473.1 123.6 242.1 2 945.1 '654.4 2,290.8 404.8 1,886.0 762.2 279.6 482.6 128.7 239.7 3,688.6' 3,911.3 3,887.8 3,909.2 3,895.0 3,921.5 3,984.0 4,056.8 4,009.3 4,063.3 4,050.8 4,075.7 56 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 401.8 398,4 400.6 404.2 409.8 415.5 420.3 424.1 427.7 422.5 424.5 422.1 MEMO 57 Revaluation gains on off-balance-sheet items8 58 Revaluation losses on off-balancesheet items8 59 Mortgage-backed securities9 37.9 43.9 45.6 50.5 51.0 51.9 61.5 78.2 84.1 80.6 77.2 74.8 41.0 265.6 45.3 295.6 46.3 298.0 50.1 291.2 50.4 294.4 54.2 301.9 65.0 314.0 79.9 336.9 85.0 322.6 81.7 334.1 79.0 340.9 77.3 345.2 Footnotes appear on p. A21. Commercial Banking Institutions—Assets and Liabilities A17 1.26 COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES C. Large domestically chartered commercial banks Assets and Liabilities1—Continued Billions of dollars Wednesday figures Monthly averages Account 1997 Oct.' 1998 1998' Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Oct. 7 Oct. 14 Oct. 21 Oct. 28 Seasonally adjusted Assets 1 Bank credit 2 Securities in bank credil 3 U.S. government securities 4 Trading account .. 5 Investment account 6 Other securities 7 Trading account 8 Investment account 9 State and local government . 10 Other ]I Loans and leases in bank credit- .. . 12 Commercial and industrial 13 Bankers acceptances 14 Other 15 Real estate 16 Revolving home equity 17 Other [8 Consumer 19 Security3 20 Federal funds sold to and repurchase agreements with broker-dealers 21 Other 22 State and local government ... 23 Agricultural 24 Federal funds sold lo and repurchase agreements with others 25 All other loans 26 Lease-financing receivables 27 Interbank loans 28 Federal funds sold to and repurchase agreements with commercial banks 29 Other 30 Cash assets4 31 Other assets5 12 Total assets 6 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Liabilities Deposits Transaction , Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the U S From others Nel due lo related foreign offices Other liabilities .... 43 Total liabilities 44 Residual (assets less liabilities) 7 Footnotes appear on p. A21. .... 2.114.2 469.0 333.9 25.0 308.9 135 1 63,3 71.8 22.3 495 1,645.2 441.8 1.3 440.5 665.3 67.6 597.7 303.5 52.3 2,236.3 513.4 361.9 225 339.4 1515 70.6 80.9 23.0 580 1,722.8 471.7 1.2 470.4 689.6 69.4 620.2 302.2 57.4 2,248.6 522.3 365.3 23.3 342.1 157.0 75.6 814 22.8 58.6 1,726.3 484.0 1.3 482.7 685.5 68.7 616.8 301.3 55.9 2.246.3 514.2 351.6 234 328.2 1627 79.5 83.2 22.2 609 1,732.1 494.3 1.2 493.1 675 9 68.1 607.8 297.7 61.4 2.246.1 516.3 350.1 20.4 329.7 166.1 81.1 85.0 22.4 62 6 1,729.8 494.5 1.3 493.2 672.3 67.6 604.7 292.2 63.6 2.276.8 527.0 356.1 2).3 33J.8 170.9 83.1 87 7 22.6 65.] 1,749.7 498.9 1,3 497.6 674 5 67.5 607.0 293.0 67.1 2,307.6 541.8 362.7 22.0 340.7 179.1 89.3 898 23.2 66.6 1,765.9 504.0 1.3 502.7 6725 67.8 604.7 296.0 68.7 2,362.1 567.0 366.9 20.9 345.9 200.1 108.6 91.6 23.9 67.7 1,795.1 516J 1.2 515.1 673.7 67.2 606.5 296.0 81.1 2.332.8 552.2 353.4 20.5 332.9 198.8 109.1 897 23.3 66.4 1,780.6 507.3 1.3 507.9 672.4 66.4 606.0 296.2 79.8 2,355.2 560.2 364.2 191 345.1 1960 105.8 90.2 23.8 664 1,794.9 514.6 1.3 515.1 6720 67.4 604.6 295.0 81.3 2 371.7 577.1 372.6 21.9 350.7 204.5 113.5 910 24.0 67.0 1.794.7 519.7 1.3 520.2 669.8 67.5 602.4 295.9 82.7 2,381.5 578.3 374.3 20.5 353.8 204.0 110.4 93.6 24.3 694 1,803.3 521.7 1.3 522.2 676.0 67.5 608.5 296.2 80.2 35.4 16.9 12.0 9.5 39.8 17.6 11.2 9.9 37.6 18.3 11.2 9.8 42.8 18.6 11.0 9.8 44.8 18.7 10.9 9.7 47.9 19.2 11.0 9.7 50.1 18.6 11.1 9.7 63.2 17.9 11.2 9.7 61.8 18.0 112 9.7 62.8 18.4 11.2 9.8 64.8 17.9 11.0 9.7 62.9 17.3 11.0 9.7 9.2 72.5 79.1 120.6 7.3 82.8 90.8 128.3 5.7 80.0 92.8 116.4 5.5 82.9 93.6 126.2 8.7 82.9 95.0 121.7 9.8 88.0 97.6 113.8 12.1 92.5 99.2 115.5 12.6 93.4 101.0 120.6 12.5 91.0 100.4 118.2 13.1 97,3 100.7 111.9 11.7 93.2 101.1 123.3 13.4 93.4 101.6 129.7 80.0 40.6 158.9 188.1 76.7 51.7 166.6 210.0 65.6 50.8 1493 214.8 75.0 51.2 148.2 211.6 68.2 53.6 142.8 208.9 60.8 52.9 150.1 208.0 62.4 53.1 1501 207.6 71.6 49.0 139.6 199.4 65.1 53.0 138.0 198.5 65.0 46.8 143 8 199.3 75.4 47.9 141.7 199.6 81.4 48.3 135.6 197.7 2^447 2.703.6 2^913 2.6*4.8 2,682.0 2,711.7 2,743.7 2,784.1 2,749.9 2,7725 2J9&8 2^07.0 1,562.5 3844 1,178.1 204.6 973.5 494.2 189.6 3046 65.8 150.9 1,637.8 393.3 134.5 222.8 1,021.7 547.1 210.0 337.1 73.9 179.8 1,621.7 385.1 1,236.6 218.1 1,018.5 538.4 190.0 3484 69.4 181.7 1,618.6 379.0 1,239.6 219.5 1,020.1 529.0 187.6 341.5 69.5 188.2 1.594.6 363,9 1.230.7 213.2 1,017.5 522.8 189.2 '33.5 75.6 194.2 1,602.2 365.6 1,236.6 212.0 1,024.6 527.7 196.1 331.6 89.1 196.2 1,602.5 369.2 1,233.3 206.9 1,026.4 540.3 196.9 343.4 101.3 199.8 1,613.4 362.9 1250.5 217.8 1,032.7 573.6 205.8 367.9 113.0 210.0 1,594.1 350.9 1,243.1 209.9 1,033.2 559.9 205.7 354.2 96.7 214.4 1.623.8 370.1 I.Z53.7 215.5 1,038.2 554.4 204.6 349.8 109.0 211.2 1.608.7 361.9 1.246.8 219.8 1.027.0 582.2 205.5 376.8 119.8 210.4 1,618.8 372.1 1,246.7 222.9 1,023.8 588.9 206.6 382.3 125.6 208.1 2^73.4 2AS8.7 2,411.2 2,4053 2387.2 2415.2 2444.0 2^10.1 2,465.1 2,4983 2jsn.i 24414 264.9 280.0 299.8 274.0 284.9 274.2 277.7 265.6 271.3 289.5 294.8 296.6 A18 1.26 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES Assets and Liabilities1—Continued C. Large domestically chartered commercial banks—Continued Monthly averages Account 1998' 1997 Oct.' Wednesd ly figures Apr. May June July 1998 Aug. Sept. Oct. Oct. 7 Oct. 14 Oct. 21 Oct. 28 Not seasonally adjusted Assets 45 Bank credit 46 Securities in bank credit 47 U.S. government securities 48 Trading account 49 Investment account 50 Mortgage-backed securities . . 51 Other 52 One year or less 53 One to five years 54 More than five years . . . 55 Other securities 56 Trading account 57 Investment account 58 State and local government . . 59 Other 60 Loans and leases in bank credit2 . . 61 Commercial and industrial 62 Bankers acceptances 63 Other 64 Real estate 65 Revolving home equity 66 Other 67 Commercial 68 Consumer 69 Security1 . 70 Federal funds sold to and repurchase agreements with broker-dealers . . . . 71 Other 72 State and local government . . . . 73 Agricultural 74 Federal funds sold to and repurchase agreements with others 75 All other loans 76 Lease-financing receivables . . . . 77 Interbank loans 78 Federal funds sold to and repurchase agreements with commercial banks 79 Other 80 Cash assets4 81 Other assets5 82 Total assets6 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 Uabililirs Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the U.S From nonbanks in the U.S Net due to related foreign offices . .. Other liabilities 93 Total liabilities . 94 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 2,119.2 469.2 334.1 26.1 308.0 202.0 106.1 27.6 54.4 24.0 135.1 63.0 720 22.4 49.7 1,650.0 441.4 1.4 440.0 668.9 68.2 367.8 232.9 304.5 52.4 2235.4 517.1 366.6 22.7 343.9 224.9 119.0 32.0 52.1 34.9 150.5 70.2 80.3 22.9 57.3 1,718.3 476.7 1.2 475.6 683.7 68.4 380.6 234.7 298.2 59.5 2,234.8 518.9 366.1 22.5 343.6 224.7 118.9 30.5 50.7 37.7 152.8 72.1 807 22.7 58.0 1.715.9 487.6 1.2 486.4 Sill 68.2 376.0 233.4 297.3 56.0 2,240.0 510.9 351.3 22.5 328.8 216.1 112.7 30.6 47.5 34.7 159.6 76.7 82.9 22.4 60.6 1,729.1 495.4 1.2 494.2 673.0 67.8 374.1 231.1 296.4 61.5 239.1 509.2 347.9 19.9 328.0 217.5 110.5 29.4 50.3 30.8 161.3 77.0 84.3 22.3 62.1 1,729.9 494.6 1.2 493.3 674.6 67.8 375.5 231.3 292.0 62.0 2,261.3 515.4 351.3 21.2 330.2 224.2 105.9 28.0 47.2 30.7 164.0 76.8 87.2 22.7 64.6 1.745.9 495.5 1.3 494.2 677.8 67.8 377.8 232.2 294.6 63.4 2.297.6 533.7 358.0 21.9 336.1 234.8 101.3 26.8 42.7 31.9 175.7 86.3 89.4 23.2 66.2 1,763.8 501.1 1.3 499.8 675.8 68.4 374.0 233.5 298.0 65.6 2,366.5 566.0 366.0 21.9 344.1 253.4 90.7 25.2 35.9 29.5 200.0 108.2 91.8 24.0 67.8 1,800.5 516.1 1.3 514.8 677.7 67.8 376.1 233.8 296.9 81.5 2,337.3 551.4 352.0 21.2 330.8 240.8 90.0 24.8 36.8 28.5 199.4 109.1 90.3 23.4 66.8 1,785.8 508.0 1.3 506.7 678.0 67.1 376.8 234.1 297.2 77.5 2,358.2 556.1 361.4 20.0 341.5 252.1 89.4 25.7 35.9 27.8 194.6 104.4 90.2 23.8 66.4 1,802.1 513.9 1.3 512.6 676.5 68.0 376.6 231.9 295.7 82.3 2,370.2 572.5 371.2 23.1 348.0 257.2 90.9 25.0 35.6 30.3 201.3 110.2 91.1 24.2 66.9 1,797.7 518.7 1.3 517.4 672.9 68.1 371.1 233.7 296.8 83.5 2.384.2 578.8 374.5 21.3 353.1 261.0 92.1 25.4 35.9 30.9 204.3 110.7 93.6 24.4 69.2 1,805.4 520.6 1.3 519.3 678.5 68.1 375.5 234.9 297.3 80.6 35.6 16.8 9.7 41.7 17.8 111 9.5 37.6 184 11.1 9.7 42.5 19.0 11.0 9.9 43.8 18.2 10.9 10.1 45.0 184 11.1 10.1 47.5 18.1 11.2 10.0 63.6 17.8 11.3 9.9 60.5 17.0 11.3 10.0 64.0 18.3 11.3 10.0 65.5 18.0 11.1 9.8 62.7 17.9 11.1 9.8 92 73.0 78 8 117.4 7.3 81.8 90.5 129.0 5.7 78.8 92.2 115.7 5.5 83.1 93.2 126.7 87 82.6 94.6 120.7 9.8 87.3 96.4 111.2 12.1 92.0 98.1 114.3 12.6 93.9 100.6 117.7 12.5 91.3 100.2 114.9 13 1 99.1 100.2 110.2 11.7 92.8 100.4 118.0 13.4 93.2 100.9 126.7 77.0 40.4 162.7 188.1 77.8 51.2 1642 210X) 65.2 50.5 145 3 214.8 75.4 51.3 143.1 211.6 67.4 53.2 1391 208.9 59.0 52.2 140.0 208.0 61.9 52.4 148.6 207.6 68.9 48.8 143.2 199.4 62.4 52.5 137.0 198.5 62.9 47.2 162.3 199.3 70.2 47.8 138.5 199.6 78.9 47.8 136.4 197.7 24503 2,7013 2^73.1 2*83.7 2*703 2*83.2 2,730.6 2,789.2 2,750.0 2,7923 2,788* 2*074 1,567.6 382.3 1.185.2 207.6 977.6 489.9 186.5 303.4 64.1 150.9 1,630.6 395.3 1,235.3 218.6 1,016.8 548.4 209.5 338.9 74.5 179.8 1.602.0 375.7 1,226.3 216.4 1,010.0 543.6 190.5 353.1 77.1 181.7 1,612.2 375.6 1,236.7 217.1 1 019.5 538.3 190.0 348.4 76.2 188.2 1,594.6 361.7 1,232.9 212.1 1,020.8 527.3 189.3 338.0 81.2 194.2 1,599.8 356.4 1,243.4 214.4 1,029.0 519.5 191.4 328.0 92.9 196.2 1,608.6 366.1 1,242.5 210.4 1,032.1 540.5 194.7 345.7 103.0 199.8 1,619.7 360.7 1,259.0 221.2 1,037.8 569.4 202.2 367.1 110.9 210.0 1,608.4 348.8 1,259.5 213.4 1,046.1 551.5 201.6 349.9 93.8 214.4 1,645.5 381.5 1,264.0 218.2 1,045.7 550.1 201.0 349.0 106.7 211.2 1,601.9 349.6 1,252.3 222.9 1,029.5 577.9 201.5 376.4 118.8 210.4 1,610.6 363.5 1,247.1 226.4 1,020.8 587.0 202.9 384.2 124.3 208.1 2^724 24333 24044 2415.0 23973 24084 245L8 2409.9 2468.0 24134 2409.0 2430.1 277.8 267.9 268.7 268.7 273.0 274.8 278.8 279.3 281.9 278.9 279.8 277.4 MEMO 95 Revaluation gains on off-balancesheet items8 96 Revaluation losses on off-balancesheet items8 97 Mortgage-backed securities5 98 Pass-through securities 99 CMOs, REMICs, and other mortgage-backed securities . . 100 Net unrealized gains (losses) on available-for-sale securities1 . . . 101 Offshore credit to U.S. residents" . .. Footnotes appear on p. A21. 37.9 43.9 45.6 50.5 51.0 51.9 61.5 78.2 84.1 80.6 77,2 74.8 41.0 220.2 150.0 45.3 245.1 165.4 46.3 245.9 164.8 50.1 238.0 156.9 50.4 240.6 157.0 54.2 247.3 160.3 65.0 258.0 166.3 79.9 277.9 188.4 85.0 264.9 174.7 81.7 275.9 186.4 79.0 281.2 192.0 77.3 285.5 197.2 70.2 79.7 81.1 81.0 83.6 86.9 S>1.7 89.5 90.3 89.5 89.2 88.3 2.4 14.2 3.0 35.5 2.8 36.0 3.2 36.1 3.5 35.3 3.1 35.6 3.8 36.8 4.5 38.5 4.9 37.8 4.6 38.1 4.5 38.9 4.5 38.8 Commercial Banking Institutions—Assets and Liabilities A19 1.26 COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES D. Small domestically chartered commercial banks Assets and Liabilities'—Continued Billions of dollars Monthly averages Apr. May June July Wednesday figures Aug. Sept. Seasonally adjusted 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Assets Bank credit Securities in bank credit U.S. government securities .. Other securities Loans and leases in bank credit2 Commercial and industrial . . Real estate Revolving home equity Other Consumer Security' Other loans and leases Interbank loans Cash assets4 Other assets5 16 Total assets6 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the U.S From others Net due to related foreign offices Other liabilities 27 Total liabilities 28 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 . 1,379.0 316.8 82.7 979.5 177.1 526.8 28.3 498.5 204.4 5.0 66.1 54.1 68.2 58.5 1,427.9 402.2 313.8 88.4 1,025.7 185.2 558.9 29.0 529.9 203.9 6.2 71.5 63.6 66.6 62.4 1,437.6 406.6 317.6 89.0 1,031.0 187.5 561.6 29.1 532.5 204.7 5.9 1,458.2 64.5 67.0 63.6 1,447.4 407.0 316.8 90.2 1,040.4 189.6 567.8 29.4 538.4 204.4 6.1 72.5 68.0 67.8 66.6 6.2 73.0 70.7 66.3 65.3 6.4 74.0 72.7 1,540.7 1.600.9 1,613.1 1,630.2 1,235.5 290.6 944.9 161.5 783.4 149.9 69.8 80.1 5.2 27.0 1,280.0 290.9 989.1 171.7 817.4 157.7 69.2 88.5 3.5 30.3 1,288.5 290.7 997.7 173.6 824.2 160.1 69.7 90.4 3.8 30.2 1,301.7 292.6 1,009.2 1,417.6 1,471.5 148Z5 123.1 129.4 130.5 399.6 71.3 1,493.2 426.1 326.5 99.6 1,067.1 198.3 587.8 29.5 558.4 199.8 6.9 74.3 74.7 67.2 71.8 1,492.2 426.4 326.6 99.8 1,065.8 198.2 587.0 29.5 557.6 199.0 76.4 69.0 70.1 76.2 76.7 68.3 67.0 554.6 200.5 6.6 74.2 76.1 69.0 69.7 1,496.6 427.8 327.6 100.2 1.068.7 198.4 589.2 29.7 559.4 199.9 6.8 74.5 76.2 68.5 71.6 68.8 72.8 68.8 1,640.7 1,659.9 1,675.5 1,692.9 1,687.1 1,687.8 1,6943 1,697.0 1.305.2 289.5 1,015.7 171.3 844.4 164.7 73.6 91.2 3.7 29.8 1,320.4 290.2 1,030.2 1,332.8 293.1 1,039.7 176.0 863.7 165.1 73.7 91.4 37 30.7 1,340.3 290.7 1,049.6 177.3 872.3 171.7 76.9 94.9 4.7 31.7 1,333.4 283.7 1,049.7 177.0 872.7 170.8 76.7 94.1 4.9 31.8 1,338.4 288.1 1,050.3 176.1 874.2 171.4 78.1 93.4 4.7 31.4 1,340.5 293.3 1,047.2 177.1 870.1 171.9 76.5 1,344.1 297.9 1,046.3 178.4 867.8 172.3 95.3 4.8 31.7 96.2 4.4 31.6 1,4*7.1 1,5323 13484 1.540.8 1,545.9 1,548.9 13524 133.1 143.2 144.5 146.2 141.8 145.4 144.6 173.7 835.5 161.6 70.7 90.9 3.9 29.9 412.4 319.4 93.0 1,045.8 191.1 573.4 29.6 543.8 202.1 1,471.7 416.1 320.9 95.2 1,055.5 194.2 580.6 29.6 551.0 200.3 172.0 858.2 163.7 73.3 90.4 3.7 30.5 1,480.6 418.5 322.1 96.4 1,062.1 196.5 584.3 29.7 6.8 74.8 1,496.4 428.5 327.5 101.0 1,067.9 197.8 588.8 29.7 559.1 200.6 6.6 74.1 1,499.8 429.0 329.0 100.0 1,070.8 199.0 591.0 29.7 561.2 200.2 6.6 74.1 71.7 76.1 Not seasonally adjusted Assets Bank credit Securities in bank credit U.S. government securities . Other securities Loans and leases in bank credit2 Commercial and industrial . Real estate Revolving home equity . Other Consumer Security' Other loans and leases Interbank loans Cash assets4 Other assets5 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Total assets'1 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Large time Other Borrowings From banks in the U.S From others Net due to related foreign offices Other liabilities 55 Total liabilities 56 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 1,379.1 396.8 314.7 82.2 982.3 175.6 529.1 28.5 500.6 205.3 5.0 67.2 53.3 68.2 58.7 1,433.6 407.7 318.9 88.8 1,025.8 187.6 558.5 29.1 529.4 202.9 6.2 1,482.7 417.7 321.7 96.0 1,065.0 195.1 586.0 29.8 556.1 201.4 6.6 76.0 71.7 68.3 70.9 1,496.4 424.9 325.4 99.5 1,071.5 196.8 591.6 29.9 561.7 200.8 6.8 75.6 75.1 68.4 71.7 1,490.2 422.6 323.9 98.7 1,067.6 196.3 588.9 29.6 559.3 199.6 6.9 75.9 76.6 66.8 73.3 1,492.7 423.7 324.7 99.1 1,069.0 196.4 589.8 29.6 560.1 199.6 6.8 76,3 75.4 73.4 71.8 1,497.0 425.5 325.3 65.6 67.0 1,471.2 415.1 320.1 95.0 1,056.1 192.7 581.0 29.5 551.5 200.4 6.4 75.6 68.2 66.1 68.1 66.2 70.4 1J01.0 426.3 326.9 99.4 1,074.6 197.4 594.0 29.9 564.1 201.8 6.6 74.8 71.9 66.8 70.7 1,629.6 1,6343 1,653.8 1,673.8 1,691.7 1,687.0 1,6933 1,6863 14903 1,298.4 291.0 1,007.4 1,299.5 286.7 1,012.8 171.3 841.5 164.8 73.7 1,329.3 290.8 1,038.5 176.0 1,338.3 1,335.2 284.8 1,050.4 177.0 873.4 169.5 75,3 94.2 4.9 31.8 1,342.5 291.3 1,051.2 176.1 875.1 171.3 77.2 94.1 47 1,332.2 288.9 1,049.4 177.3 872.1 172.3 76.3 95.9 4.7 31.7 1,334.5 290.9 1,043.6 178.4 865.2 175.1 1,546.9 1,5413 1,452.2 410.1 319.5 90.7 1,042.1 191.3 568.4 29.3 539.1 202.8 6.1 73.4 64.2 66.9 65.9 1,456.3 411.0 318.1 92.9 1,045.2 190.9 573.5 29.4 544.0 200.4 6.2 74.3 65.3 62.7 1,444.6 410.8 320.9 89.9 1.033.9 190.1 563.2 29.2 534.0 203.4 5.9 71.3 60.8 66.9 62.7 1,540.1 1,608.4 1,615.4 1,233.6 289.0 944.6 161.5 783.1 150.3 69.4 80.9 5.2 27.0 1,288.3 294.5 993.8 1,288.9 288.6 1,000.3 173.6 826.8 160.5 70.4 90.0 1.416.1 70.6 65.7 66.0 3.8 30.2 71.2 90.8 3.9 29.9 29.8 1,313.9 286.0 1,027.9 172.0 855.9 165.0 74.1 90.9 3.7 30.5 1,478.0 1.483.4 1,4942 1,497.8 1,513.1 124.0 130.5 132.0 135.5 136.7 45.4 50.4 52.1 53.2 171.7 822.1 155.9 68.9 87.0 3.5 30.3 173.7 833.7 162.0 91.0 3.7 862.4 168.5 74.8 93.7 3.7 30.7 31.4 Footnotes appear on p. A21. 72.9 286.1 1,046.1 177.1 869.0 173.1 76.4 96.7 4.8 31.7 140.7 145.7 143.6 57.7 58.2 141.6 59.0 76.7 98.4 4.4 31.6 1341.8 1,5312 MEMO 57 Mortgage-backed securities9 100.2 1,071.5 196.3 591.6 29.9 561.7 201.9 6.6 75.1 144.6 1345.7 144.6 A20 1.26 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES Assets and Liabilities1—Continued E. Foreign-related institutions Billions of dollars Wednesday figures Monthly averages 1998 1998 Oct. Apr. Ma/ June' July Aug. Sepl.' Oct. Oct. 7 Oct. 14 Oct. 28 Seasonally adjusted 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Assets Bank credit Securities in bank credit U.S. government securities .. Other securities Loans and leases in bank creditCommercial and industrial . . Real estate Security3 Other loans and leases Interbank loans Cash assets 4 Other assets5 13 Total assets 6 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaclion Borrowings From banks in the U S From others Net due to related foreign offices . . . Other liabilities 538.1' 175.2' 80.9 94.3' 362.91 222.5 27.5 47.01 66.0 20.5 34.4 43.7 557^ 194.2' 89.2 105.1' 363.7' 213.0" 25.0 54.2' 71.5' 22.6 35.6 36.2 564.0 197.1 89.1 108.0 366.9 211.7 24.4 61.2 69.7 21.8 34.8 34.1 567.2 199.1 87.4 111.8 368.0 212.9 24.2 62.5 68.5 23.9 35.3 34.1 572.5' 200.0* 90.2 109.8' 372.51 215.^ 23.9 6Z.6' 70.1' 22.0 35.2 34.2 590.0* 210.9' 92.9 117.9* 379.2' 216.91 23.7 65.5' 73.1' 22.5 34.0 35.8 606.2 213.4 80.8 132.6 392.8 221.2 23.4 69.1 79.1 31.2 34.3 37.9 631.9 223.5 78.6 144.9 408.4 228.4 23.0 71.6 85.5 29.5 35.8 39.5 637.0 226.4 78.9 147.5 410.6 225.9 23.9 74.9 86.0 30.3 36.1 40.5 625.7 217.2 76.1 141.1 408.5 227.2 22.7 72.4 86.2 28.5 36.4 40.9 635.4 227.0 77.6 149.4 408.3 230.6 22.6 70.1 85.0 31.2 37.1 39.0 632.3 222.8 80.2 142.5 409.5 229.6 23.1 70.5 86.3 28.5 34.2 38.3 6364' 65ir 6545 660-3 6A3.6' 6810' 7093 7364 743.6 731.2 7424 733.1 267.7 10.4 257.2 155.8 33.8 122.0 118.5 294.0 12.3 281.8 1660 26.6 139.4 102.4' 85.2' 295.3 11.5 283.7 163.4 22.4 141.0 101.1 87.4 302.6 11.1 291.6 167.1 M.6 137JS 97.2 90.2 297.2 13.4 283.9 169.9 26.8 143.1 106.8 93.1' 306.2 11.8 294.4 169.9 24.0 145.9 108.3 314.8 14.8 300.0 184.3 32.6 151.7 95.1 104.5 320.4 14.6 305.8 194.2 35.9 158.3 105.5 113.8 326.3 14.3 312.0 189.8 32.1 157.7 109.6 116.3 321.7 15.8 305.9 195.6 34.9 160.7 97.3 117.8 320.4 14.8 305.6 195.3 39.3 156.0 106.4 120.0 315.9 13.9 302.1 196.3 38.2 158.1 105.6 104.7 itn.r 647.2 657.2 667.1' 683.2 698.7 7319 741.9 7314 7412 7215 4.3' 7.3 -3.5' -1.2' 10.5 91.r 22 Total liabilities 23 Residual (assets less liabilities)7 . 2.7 0.2 Not seasonally adjusted 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Assets Bank credit Securities in bank credit U.S. government securities Trading account Investment account Other securities Trading account Investment account Loans and leases in bank credit2 . . . Commercial and industrial Real estate Security3 Other loans and leases Interbank loans Cash assets4 Other assets5 40 Total assets6 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Liabilities Deposits Transaction Nontransaction Borrowings From banks in the U.S From others Net due to related foreign offices Other liabilities 49 Total liabilities 81.3 14.3 67.0 94.5' 57.2' 37.3 361.9 222.2 27.7 47.0* 65.0 20.5 34.6 42.7 558.1' 196.2' 87.8 18.5 69.3 108.5' 64 9* 43.6 361.9 213.1 24.7 53.5' 70.61 22.6 33.9 34.2 565.7 201.1 89.7 20.8 68.9 111.4 66.7 44.7 364.6 211.1 24.3 60.6 68.6 21.8 34.4 34.5 570.2 202.3 87.4 18.9 68.5 114.9 70.3 44.6 367.9 212.8 24.0 62.4 68.8 23.9 36.3 33.4 575.2' 202./ 89.8 24.9 64.9 112.9* 70.2' 42.7 372.5' 215.71 23.6 61.91 71.3' 22.0 35.1 33.8 592.4' 215.1' 93.7 30.7 63.1 121.4' 75.3' 46.1' 377.4' 215.8' 23.6 64.6' 73.4' 22.5 34.0* 36.6 601.1 210.2 80.8 20.2 60.6 129.4 83.2 46.1 390.9 220.1 23.3 68.8 78.6 31.2 34.4 37.9 631.2 223.8 79.1 16.2 62.9 144.7 92.9 51.8 407.4 228.3 23.3 71.7 84.2 29.5 36.1 38.6 633.1 223.4 78.2 15.6 62.6 145.2 95.5 49.7 409.6 225.8 24.1 75.1 84.6 30.3 35.7 39.5 627.0 219.5 76.3 15.7 60.6 143.2 93.1 50.0 407.5 226.6 22.9 72.9 85.0 28.5 36.6 39.9 634.2 227.2 78.5 16.3 62.2 148.7 96.6 52.1 406.9 229.9 22.9 70.1 84.0 31.2 37.4 37.8 632.2 224.1 81.2 16.3 64.9 142.9 88.8 54.1 408.1 229.9 23.4 70.2 84.6 28.5 35.0 37.3 6354' 648V 6563 663.5 665.8' 6853' 7042 735.0 7384 731.6 7403 7318 267.5 10.5 257.0 155.8 33.8 122.0 117.7 91.4' 292.3 11.8 280.5 166.0 26.6 139.4 101.0 84.5' 298.0 11.2 286.8 163.4 22.4 141.0 102.1 86.9 304.4 11.1 293.3 167.1 29.6 137.5 96.4 89.4 295.4 13.5 282.0 169.9 26.8 143.1 103.3 92.4' 304.9 11.8 293.2 169.9 24.0 145.9 105.0 98.7 316.4 15.4 300.9 184.3 32.6 151.7 93.5 104.2 319.9 14.6 305.3 194.2 35.9 158.3 104.5 113.5 327.1 14.1 313.0 189.8 32.1 157.7 105.3 115.3 320.2 16.0 304.2 195.6 34.9 160.7 97.2 117.2 319.2 14.9 304.3 195.3 39.3 156.0 104.8 119.6 316.2 14.0 302.2 196.3 38.2 158.1 108.8 105.2 6324' 643JC 6504 6574 661# 6984 7310 737.6 7303 738J) 726.4 5.7 6.1 4.8' 6.8' 5.9 0.8 1.4 537.8' nssr 50 Residual (assets less liabilities)' MEMO 51 Revaluation gains on off-balance-sheet items 8 52 Revaluation losses on off-balancesheet items8 Footnotes appear on p. A21. 6.4 41.8' 40.C 40.3 42.3 41.8' 43.8 48.0 54.8 59.1 54.7 57.6 50.4 40.3' 39.1' 38.7 40.7 40.3' 42.3' 45.3 51.1 55.6 51.9 53.6 46.0 Commercial Banking Institutions—Assets and Liabilities A21 NOTES TO TABLE 1.26 NOTE. Tables 1.26, 1.27, and 1.28 have been revised to reflect changes in the Board's H.8 statistical release, "Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States." Table 1.27, "Assets and Liabilities of Large Weekly Reporting Commercial Banks," and table 1.28, "Large Weekly Reporting U.S. Branches and Agencies of Foreign Banks," are no longer being published in the Bulletin. Instead, abbreviated balance sheets for both large and small domestically chartered banks have been included in table 1.26, parts C and D. Data are both merger-adjusted and break-adjusted. In addition, data from large weekly reporting U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks have been replaced by balance sheet estimates of all foreign-related institutions and are included in table 1.26, part E. These data are breakadjusted. The not-seasonally-adjusted data for all tables now contain additional balance sheet items, which were available as of October 2, 1996. 1. Covers the following types of institutions in the fifty states and the District of Columbia: domestically chartered commercial banks that submit a weekly report of condition (large domestic); other domestically chartered commercial banks (small domestic); branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act and agreement corporations (foreign-related institutions). Excludes International Banking Facilities. Data are Wednesday values or pro rata averages of Wednesday values. Large domestic banks constitute a universe; data for small domestic banks and foreign-related institutions are estimates based on weekly samples and on quarter-end condition reports. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. The data for large and small domestic banks presented on pp. A17-19 are adjusted to remove the estimated effects of mergers between these two groups. The adjustment for mergers changes past levels to make them comparable with current levels. Estimated quantities of balance sheet items acquired in mergers are removed from past data for the bank group that contained the acquired bank and put into past data for die group containing the acquiring bank. Balance sheet data for acquired banks are obtained from Call Reports, and a ratio procedure is used to adjust past levels. 2. Excludes federal funds sold to, reverse RPs with, and loans made to commercial banks in the United Stales, all of which are included in "Interbank loans." 3. Consists of reverse RPs with brokers and dealers and loans to purchase and carry securities. 4. Includes vault cash, cash items in process of collection, balances due from depository institutions, and balances due from Federal Reserve Banks. 5. Excludes the due-from position with related foreign offices, which is included in "Net due to related foreign offices." 6. Excludes unearned income, reserves for losses on loans and leases, and reserves for transfer risk. Loans are reported gross of these items. 7. This balancing item is not intended as a measure of equity capital for use in capital adequacy analysis. On a seasonally adjusted basis this item reflects any differences in the seasonal patterns estimated for total assets and total liabilities. 8. Fair value of derivative contracts (interest rate, foreign exchange rate, other commodity and equity contracts) in a gain/loss position, as determined under FASB Interpretation No. 39. 9. Includes mortgage-backed securities issued by U.S. government agencies, U.S. government-sponsored enterprises, and private entities. 10. Difference between fair value and historical cost for securities classified as availablefor-sale under FASB Statement No. 115. Data are reported net of tax effects. Data shown are restated to include an estimate of these tax effects. 11. Mainly commercial and industrial loans but also includes an unknown amount of credit extended to other than nonfinancial businesses. A22 1.32 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 COMMERCIAL PAPER AND BANKERS DOLLAR ACCEPTANCES OUTSTANDING A. Commercial Paper Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, end of period Year ending December 1998 Item 1 All issuers 1993 Dec. 1994 Dec. 1995 Dec. 1996 Dec. 1997 Dec. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 555,075 595,382 674,904 775,371 966,699 1,041,681 1,053,995 1,091,554 1,102,307 1,119,816 1,152,337 218,947 180,389 223,038 207,701 275,815 210,829 361,147 229,662 513.307 252.536 558,817 275,415 569,065 274,469 597,193 276,476 616.382 266,022 606,355 281,927 639,571 271,526 155,739 164,643 188,260 184,563 200,857 207,449 210,460 217,885 219,904 231.534 241,239 Financial companies' 2 3 Dealer-placed paper2, total Directly placed paper1, total 4 Nonfinancial companies4 1. Institutions engaged primarily in commercial, savings, and mortgage banking; sales, personal, and mortgage financing; factoring, finance leasing, and other business lending; insurance underwriting; and other investment activities. 2. Includes all financial-company paper sold by dealers in the open market. 3. As reported by financial companies that place their paper direcily with investors. 4. Includes public utilities and firms engaged primarily in such activities as communications, construction, manufacturing, mining, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and services. B. Bankers Dollar Acceptances 1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted, year ending September2 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 Total amount of reporting banks acceptances in existence 29,242 25,832 25,774 14,363 2 Amount of other banks" eligible acceptances held by reporting banks 3 Amount of own eligible acceptances held by reporting banks (included in item 1) 4 Amount of eligible acceptances representing goods stored in, or shipped between, foreign countries (included in item 1) 1,249 10,516 709 7,770 736 6,862 523 4,884 11,373 9,361 10,467 5,414 Item 1 1. Includes eligible, dollar-denominated blinkers acceptances legally payable in the United States. Eligible acceptances are those that are eligible for discount by Federal Reserve Banks; that is, those acceptances that meet the criteria of Paragraph 7 of Section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. §372). 1.33 PRIME RATE CHARGED BY BANKS 2. Data on bankers dollar acceptances are gathered from approximately 65 institutions; includes U.S. chartered commerical banks (domestic and foreign offices), U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge and agreement corporations. The reporting group is revised every year. Short-Term Business Loans1 Percent per year Date of change 1995—Jan. 1 Feb. 1 July 7 Dec. 20 1996—Feb. Period Rate 8.50 9.00 8.75 8.50 1 8.25 1997—Mar. 26 8.50 1998—Sept. 30 Oct. 16 Nov. 18 8.25 8.00 7.75 Average rate 1995 1996 1997 8.83 8.27 8.44 1995—Jan Feb Mar. Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 8.50 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.80 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.65 Period 1996—Jan Feb Mar. Apr. May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average rate 8.50 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 1997 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1998—Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov 1. The prime rate is one of several base rates that banks use to price short-term business loans. The table shows the date on which a n«:w rate came to be the predominant one quoted by a majority of the twenty-five largest banks by asset size, based on the most recent Call Average rate Period » 8.25 8.25 8.30 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.49 8.12 7.89 Report. Data in this table also appear in the Board's H.15 (519) weekly and G.13 (415) monthly statistical releases. For ordering address, see inside front cover. Financial Markets A23 1.35 INTEREST RATES Money and Capital Markets Percent per year; figures are averages of business day data unless otherwise noted 1998 1995 Item 1996 1998, weekending 1997 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Oct. 2 Oct. 9 Oct. 16 Oct. 23 Oct. 30 MONEY MARKET INSTRUMENTS 1 Federal funds 123 Commercial paper356 Nonfinancial 3 I-month 5.83 5 21 5.30 5 02 5.46 5 00 5.54 5 00 5.55 5 00 5.51 5 00 5.07 4 86 5.58 5 00 5.22 5 00 5.14 5 00 4.87 4 75 4.95 4 75 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.57 5.57 5 56 5.51 5.50 5 48 5.50 5.50 5 48 5.44 5.37 5 31 5.14 5.08 5 04 5.23 5.16 5 11 5.25 5.17 5 11 5.22 5.12 5 09 5.03 5.02 4 98 5.05 4.99 4 98 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.59 5.59 5 60 5.52 5.51 5 50 5.51 5.51 5 50 5.45 5.38 5 "P 5.18 5.12 5 09 5.23 5.16 5 11 5.28 5.19 5 18 5.25 5.17 5 12 5.09 5.06 5 03 5.09 5.03 504 5.93 5.93 5 93 5.43 5.41 5 42 5.54 5.58 5 62 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.81 5.78 5 68 5.31 5.29 5 21 5.44 5.48 5 48 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.81 5 80 5.31 531 5.54 5 57 5.50 5 46 5.49 5 46 5.38 5 27 5.12 4 88 5.19 5 02 5.20 5 03 5.17 4 94 5.03 4 73 5.07 4 79 5.87 5.92 5 98 5.35 5.39 5 47 5.54 5.62 5 73 5.57 5.59 5 65 5.56 5.58 5 61 5.49 5.41 5 33 5.24 5.21 499 5.29 5.22 5 09 5.34 5.29 5 08 5.30 5.26 5 04 5.15 5.14 4 89 5.17 5.16 4.91 5.93 5.38 5.61 5.57 5.56 5.39 5.17 5.20 5.23 5.23 5.09 5.13 5.49 5.56 5.60 5.01 5.08 5.22 5.06 5.18 5.32 4.96 5.03 5.08 4.90 4.95 4.94 4.61 4.63 4.50 3.96 4.05 3.95 4.26 4.33 4.22 3.96 4.10 4.01 3.84 3.99 3.96 3.85 3.94 3.84 4.12 4.11 3.93 5.51 5.59 5 69 5.02 5.09 5 23 5.07 5.18 5 36 4.96 5.03 5 10 4.94 4.97 5 00 4.74 4.75 451 4.08 4.15 4 06 4.43 4.46 4.16 4.19 3.91 4.09 406 3.85 3.87 4.07 4.16 5.94 6.15 6.25 6.38 6.50 6.57 6.95 6 88 5.52 5.84 5.99 6.18 6.34 6.44 6.83 671 5.63 5.99 6.10 6.22 6.33 6.35 6.69 6 61 5.36 5.46 5.47 5.46 5.52 5.46 5.78 5 68 5.21 5.27 5.24 5.27 5.36 5.34 5.66 5 54 4.71 4.67 4.62 4.62 4.76 4.81 5.38 5 20 4.12 4.09 4.18 4.18 4.46 4.53 5.30 5 01 4.41 4.31 4.26 4.24 4.38 4.46 5.19 5 00 4.18 4.11 4.18 4.18 4.41 4.41 5.16 4 88 4.14 4.05 4.22 4.22 4.57 4.58 5.39 5 02 4.01 4.07 4.15 4.17 4.49 4.59 5.42 5 08 4.10 4.10 4.20 4.22 4.47 4.63 5.35 5 12 6.93 6.80 6.67 5.76 5.64 5.34 5.24 5.15 5.10 5.32 5.34 5.29 5.80 6.10 5 95 5.52 5.79 5 76 5.32 5.50 5 52 5.01 5.12 5 14 5.01 5.15 5 10 4.84 5.11 4 99 4.76 5.10 4 93 4.70 5.05 4 82 4.60 5.05 4 88 4.82 5.10 4 96 4.84 5.15 4.99 4.85 5.17 5.00 7.83 7.66 7.54 6.84 6.83 6.75 6.77 6.62 6.65 6.85 6.87 6.85 7.59 7.72 7.83 8.20 7.37 7.55 7.69 8.05 7.27 7.48 7.54 7.87 6.55 6.78 6.89 7.15 6.52 6.77 6.89 7.14 6.40 6.68 6.82 7.09 6.37 6.70 6.85 7.18 6.25 6.54 6.70 7.01 6.25 6.58 6.73 7.05 6.45 6.78 6.92 7.25 6.47 6.79 6.94 7.28 6.44 6.76 6.93 7.26 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.39 1.48 1.59 1.59 1.60 1.68 1.64 1.52 1.53 Financial Commercial paper (historical )3'S'7 10 3-month Finance paper, directly placed (historical) 3-5'8 12 13 15 1-month 3-month . . . . Bankers acceptances^59 3-month Certificates of deposit, secondary market*'10 18 19 3-month 6-month 20 Eurodollar deposits. 3-month3" US. Treasury bills Secondary markei 21 3-month 23 1-year. Auction high 3512 24 3-month 26 1-year U.S. TREASURY NOTES AND BONDS 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Constant maturities*3 1-year 2-year 3-year 5-year 7-year 10-year 20-year 30-year Composite 35 More than 10 years (long-term) STATE AND LOCAL NOTES AND BONDS Moodv's series14 36 Aaa ". . 37 Baa CORPORATE BONDS 39 Seasoned issues, all industries 40 41 42 43 Rating group Aaa Aa . . . A Baa MEMO Dividend-price ratio*"1 44 Common slocks 1. The daily effective federal funds rate is a weighted average of rates on trades through New York brokers. 2. Weekly figures are averages of seven calendar days ending on Wednesday of the current week; monthly figures include each calendar day in the month. 3. Annualized using a 360-day year or bank interest. 4. Rate for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 5. Quoted on a discount basis. 6. Interest rates interpolated from data on certain commercial paper trades settled by the Depository Trust Company. The trades represent sales of commercial paper by dealers or direct issuers to investors (that is, the offer side). See Board's Commercial Paper Web pages (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp) for more information. 7. An average of offering rates on commercial paper forfirmswhose bond rating is AA or the equivalent. Series ended August 29, 1997. 8. An average of offering rates on paper directly placed by finance companies. Series ended August 29, 1997. 9. FRASER Representative closing yields for acceptances of the highest-rated money center banks. Digitized for 10. An average of dealer offering rates on nationally traded certificates of deposit. 11. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Data are for indication purposes only. 12. Auction date for daily data; weekly and monthly averages computed on an issue-date basis. On or after October 28, 1998, data are stop yields from uniform-price auctions. Before that, they are weighted average yields from multiple-price auctions. 13. Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. 14. General obligation bonds based on Thursday figures; Moody's Investors Service. 15. State and local government genera] obligation bonds maturing in twenty years are used in compiling this index. The twenty-bond index has a rating roughly equivalent to Moodys' Al rating. Based on Thursday figures. 16. Daily figures from Moody's Investors Service. Based on yields to maturity on selected long-term bonds. 17. Standard & Poor's corporate series. Common stock ratio is based on the 500 stocks in the price index. NOTE. Some of the data in this table also appear in the Board's H.15 (519) weekly and G.13 (415) monthly statistical releases. For ordering address, see inside front cover. A24 1.36 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 STOCK MARKET Selected Statistics 1998 Indicator 1996 1995 1997 Feb. Apr. Mar. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Prices and trading volume (averages of daily figures)1 Common stock prices (indexes) 1 New York Stock Exchange (Dec. 31, 1965 = 50) 2 Industrial 3 Transportation 4 Utility 5 Finance 291.18 367.40 270.14 110.64 238.48 357.98 453.57 327.30 126.36 303.94 456.99 574.97 415.08 143.87 424.84 532.15 660.91 485.73 170.96 508.97 560.70 693.13 508.06 191.67 539.47 578.05 711.89 523.73 207.32 563.07 574.46 712.39 505.02 198.25 551.28 569.76 731.01 492.98 188.26 548.57 586.39 718.54 503.89 189.95 579.67 539.16 665.66 441.36 186.24 511.22 506.56 629.51 408.75 186.17 454.28 511.49 636.62 396.61 195.09 448.12 6 Standard & Poor's Corporation (1941-43 - I0)2 541.72 670.49 873.43 1,023.74 1,076.83 1,112.20 1,108.42 1,108.39 1,156.58 1,074.62 1,020.64 1,032.47 7 American Stock Exchange (Aug. 31, 1973 = 50)' 498.13 570.86 628.34 685.73 722.37 742.33 735.02 704.59 724.83 655.67 621.48 607.16 345,729 20,387 409,740 22.567 523,254 n.a. 610,958 26.808 619,366 28,943 647,110 29.544 569,239 27,004 605,576 25,447 639,744 26,473 712,710 32.721 790,238 33,331 808,816 31,946 Volume of trading (thousands of shares) 8 New York Stock Exchange 9 American Slock Exchange Customer financing (millions of dollars, end-of-period balances) 10 Margin credit at broker-dealers4 76,680 97,400 126,090 135,590 140,340 140,240 143,600 147,700 154370 147,800 137,540 130,160 Free credit balances at brokers^ 11 Margin accounts6 12 Cash accounts 16,250 34,340 22,540 40,430 31,410 52,160 27,450 48,640 27,430 51,340 28,160 51,050 26,200 47,770 29,840 51,205 31,820 53,780 38,460 53,850 41.970 54,240 43,500 54.610 Margin requirements (percent of market value and effective date)7 13 Margin slocks 14 Convertible bonds 15 Short sales Mar. 11, 1968 June 8, 1968 May 6, 1970 Dec. 6, 1971 Nov. 24, 1972 70 50 70 80 60 80 65 50 65 55 50 55 65 50 65 1. Daily data on prices are available upon request to the Board of Governors. For ordering address, see inside from cover. 2. In July 1976 a financial group, composed of banks and insurance companies, was added to the group of stocks on which the index is based. The index is now based on 400 industrial stocks (formerly 425), 20 transportation (formerly 15 rail), 40 public utility (formerly 60), and 40 financial. 3. On July 5, 1983, the American Stock Exchange rebased its index, effectively cutting previous readings in half. 4. Since July 1983, under the revised Regulation T, margin credit at broker-dealers has included credit extended against stocks, convertible bands, stocks acquired through the exercise of subscription rights, corporate bonds, and government securities. Separate reporting of data for margin stocks, convertible bond:;, and subscription issues was discontinued in April 1984. 5. Free credit balances are amounts in accounts with no unfulfilled commitments to brokers and are subject to withdrawal by customers on demand. Jan. 3, 1974 50 50 50 6. Series initialed in June 1984. 7. Margin requirements, stated in regulations adopted by the Board of Governors pursuant io the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, limit the amount of credit that can be used to purchase and carry "margin securities" (as defined in the regulations) when such credit is collateralized by securities. Margin requirements on securities are the difference between the market value (100 percent) and the maximum loan value of collateral as prescribed by the Board. Regulation T was adopted effective Oct. 15, 1934; Regulation U, effective May 1, 1936; Regulation G, effective Mar. 11, 1968; and Regulation X, effective Nov. 1, 1971. On Jan. 1, 1977, the Board of Governors for the first time established in Regulation T the initial margin required for writing options on securities, setting it at 30 percent of ihe current market value of ihe stock underlying the option. On Sept. 30, 1985, the Board changed the required initial margin, allowing it to be the same as the option maintenance margin required by the appropriate exchange or self-regulatory organization; such maintenance margin rules must be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Federal Finance A25 1.38 FEDERAL FISCAL AND FINANCING OPERATIONS Millions of dollars Fiscal year Calendar year Type of account or operation 1997 May US. budget' 1 Receipts, tota] 2 On-budget 3 Off-budget 4 Outlays, total 5 On-budget 6 Off-budget 7 Surplus or deficit ( - ) , total 8 On-budget 9 Off-budget Source of financing (total) 10 Borrowing from the public 11 Operating cash (decrease, or increase (—)). 12 Other 2 July Sept. Oct. 1,351,830 1,000,751 351,079 1,515,729 1,227,065 288,664 -163,899 -226,314 62,415 1,453,062 1,085,570 367,492 1,560,512 1,259,608 300,904 -107,450 -174,038 66,588 1,579,292 1,187,302 391,990 1,601,235 1,290,609 310,626 -21,943 -103,307 81,364 95,278 61,790 33,488 134,057 102,381 31,676 -38,779 -40,591 1,812 187.860 144,973 42,887 136,754 125,606 11,148 51,106 19,367 31,739 119,723 87,820 31,903 143,807 115,714 28,094 -24,084 -27,894 3,809 111,741 79,135 32,606 122,907 92,555 30,352 -11,166 -13,420 2,254 180,936 149,726 31,210 142,725 107,900 34,814 38,222 41,826 -3,604 119,974 90,064 29.910 152,436 123,687 28,749 -32,462 -33,623 1,161 171,288 -2,007 -5,382 129,712 -6,276 -15,986 38.171 604 -16,832 -8,597 51,899 -4,523 -12,618 -36,144 -2.344 -16,370 36.210 4,244 33,989 -362 -22,461 -46,413 -2,451 10,642 15,330 2,661 14,471 37,949 8,620 29,329 44,225 7,700 36.525 43,621 7,692 35,930 36,131 5,693 30,438 72,275 18,140 54,135 36,065 4,648 31,417 36,427 6,704 29,722 38,878 4,952 33.926 36,217 4,440 31,776 MEMO 13 Treasury operating balance (level, end of period) 14 15 Federal Reserve Banks Tax and loan accounts 1. Since 1990. off-budget items have been the social security trust funds (federal old-age survivors insurance and federal disability insurance) and the U.S. Postal Service. 2. Includes special drawing rights (SDRs); reserve position on the U.S. quota in the International Monetary Fund (IMF); loans to the IMF; other cash and monetary assets, accrued interest payable to the public; allocations of SDRs; deposit funds; miscellaneous liability (including checks outstanding) and asset accounts; seigniorage; increment on gold; net gain or loss for U.S. currency valuation adjustment; net gain or loss for IMF loanvaluation adjustment; and profit on sale of gold. SOURCE. Monthly totals; U.S. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the US. Government: fiscal year totals: U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the US. Government. A26 1.39 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 U.S. BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS1 Millions of dollars Calendar year Fiscal year 1998 Source or type 1998 Aug. Sept. RECEIPrs 1 All sources 2 Individual income taxes, net 3 Withheld 4 Nonwithheld 5 Refunds Corporation income taxes 6 Gross receipts 7 Refunds 8 Social insurance taxes and contributions, r»et . 9 Employment taxes and contributions . .. . ]0 Unemployment insurance 11 Other net receipts 3 L2 13 14 15 Excise taxes Customs deposits Estate and gift taxes Miscellaneous receipts 4 1,579,292 1,721,421 707,552 845,527 773,812 922,632 111,741 180,936r 119,974 737,466 580,207 250,753 93,560 828,597 646,483 281,527 99,476 323,884 279,988 53,491 9,604 400,436 292.252 191,050 82,926 354,072 306,865 58.069 10,869 447,514 316.309 219.136 87,989 55,300 51.881 4,944 1,525 90,479 53,342' 39,853 2,729 60,255 54,277 7,098 1.120 204,493 22,198 539,371 506,751 28.202 4,418 213,270 24,593 571,835 540,016 27,484 4,335 95,364 10,053 240,326 227,777 10,302 2,245 106,451 9,635 288,251 268,357 17,709 2,184 104.659 10,135 260,795 247,794 10,724 2,280 109,353 14,220 312,713 293,520 17,080 2.112 2,952 1,484 45,806 41,973 3,502 331 38,928 2,128 43,079 42,540 206 333 6,547 4,789 41,237 39,690 1,142 405 56,924 17,928 19,845 25,465 57,669 18,297 24,076 32,270 27,016 9,294 8,835 12.889 28,084 8,619 10,477 12,866 31,133 9,679 10,262 13,348 29,922 8.546 12,971 15,837 3,181 1,732 1.718 2,535 2,961 1,701 2,356 3,572 9,630 1,776 2,089 3,228 OUTLAYS 1,601,235 1,651,383 800,177 797,418 824,370 815.886 122,907 142,725 152,436 17 18 19 20 21 22 National defense International affairs General science, space, and technology. Energy Natural resources and environment . . . . Agriculture 270,473 15,228 17,174 1,483 21,369 9,032 270,407 13,144 19,632 1,359 21,897 14,306 139,402 8,532 8,260 695 10,307 11,037 132,698 5,740 8,938 803 9,628 1,465 140,873 9,420 10,040 411 11,106 10,590 129,351 4,610 9,426 957 10,051 2,387 18,502 443 1,581 -113 1,855 1,656 24,748 1,123 1,824 892 2,115 2,780 25,730 169 1,550 -135 1,859 3,287 23 24 25 26 Commerce and housing credit Transportation Community and regional development . Education, training, employment, and social services -14,624 40.767 11,005 907 36,610 10,437 -5,899 21,512 5,498 -7,575 16,847 5,678 -3,526 20,414 5,749 -2,483 16,196 4.863 -1,423 8,136' 3,997 1,115 1,078 3,445 1,260 16 All types 3,218 770 53,008 52,214 27,524 25,080 26,851 25,928 4,708 4,455 4,861 27 Health 28 Social security and Medicare 29 Income security 123,843 555,273 230,886 131,015 572,046 232,949 61,595 269.412 107,631 61,809 278,863 124,034 63,552 283,109 106,353 65,053 286.305 125,196 10,704 44,240 14.281 11.293 47,555 17.309 12,572 50.544 20,104 30 31 32 33 34 39,313 20,197 12,768 244,013 -49,973 41,782 22,612 13,903 243,353 -47,194 21,109 9.583 6.546 122,573 -25,142 17,697 10,670 6,623 122.655 -24,235 22,077 10,212 7,302 122,620 -22,795 19,615 11,287 6,139 122,345 -21,340 1,749 2,012 579 21,366 -3,221 3,432 1,675 2,199 15,976 -7,909 5,465 1,899 2,377 19,442 -3,078 Veterans benefits and services Administration of justice General government Net interest 5 Undistributed offsetting receipts 6 .. 1. Functional details do not sum to total outlays for calendar year data because revisions to monthly totals have not been distributed among functions. Fiscal year total for receipts and outlays do not correspond lo calendar year data because revisions from the Budget have not been fully distributed across months. 2. Old-age, disability, and hospital insurance, and railroad retir irement accounts. 3. Federal employee retirement contributions and civil service retirement and disability fund. 4. Deposits of earnings by Federal Reserve Banks and other miscellaneous receipts. 5. Includes interest received by trust funds. 6. Rents and royalties for the outer continental shelf, U.S. government contributions for employee retirement, and certain asset sales. SOURCE. Fiscal year totals: U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the US. Government, Fiscal Year 1999; monthly and half-year totals: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government. Federal Finance 1.40 All FEDERAL DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMITATION Billions of dollars, end of month 1997 1996 1998 Sept. 30 Dec. 31 Mar. 31 June 30 Sept. 30 Dec. 31 Mar. 31 June 30 Sept. 30 1 Federal debt outstanding 5,260 5,357 5,415 5,410 5,446 5,536 5,573 5,578 5,556 2 Public debl securities 3 Held by public 5,225 3,778 1 447 5,323 3,826 1 497 5.381 3,874 1 507 5,376 3,805 1 572 5,413 3,815 1 599 5,502 3,847 1 656 5.542 3,872 1 670 5,548 3,790 I 758 5,526 n.a. 35 27 8 34 27 8 34 26 8 34 26 7 33 26 7 34 27 7 31 26 5 30 26 4 29 n.a. n.a. 5 Agency securities 7 Held by agencies 8 Debt subject to statutory limit 10 Other debt1 5,137 5.237 5.294 5,290 5.328 5,417 5,457 5,460 5,440 5,137 0 5,237 0 5,294 0 5,290 0 5,328 0 5,416 0 5,456 0 5,460 0 5.439 0 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,500 5.950 5,950 5,950 5,950 5,950 MEMO 1. Consists of guaranteed debt of U.S. Treasury and other federal agencies, specified participation certificates, notes to international lending organizations, and District of Columbia stadium bonds. 1.41 GROSS PUBLIC DEBT OF U.S. TREASURY SOURCE. US. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States and Treasury Bulletin. Types and Ownership Billions of dollars, end of period 1997 Type and holder 1 Total gross public debt 2 3 4 5 By type Interest-bearing Marketable Bills . . . Notes 7 Inflation-indexed notes and bonds' 9 State and local government series 12 13 Public Savings bonds and notes 15 Non-imerest-bearing By holders 16 U.S. Treasury and other federal agencies and trust funds 17 Federal Reserve Banks . .... 20 Money market funds 22 Other companies Individuals 26 27 Foreign and international Other miscellaneous investors79 1994 1996 1998 1997 Q4 Ql Q2 Q3 4,800.2 4,988.7 5,323.2 5,502.4 5,502.4 5,542.4 5,547.9 5,526.2 4,769.2 3,126.0 733.8 1,867.0 510.3 n.a. 1,643.1 132.6 42.5 42.5 .0 177.8 1,259.8 31.0 4,964.4 3,307.2 760.7 2,010.3 521.2 n.a. 1,657.2 104.5 40.8 40 8 .0 181.9 1.299.6 24.3 5,317.2 3,459.7 777.4 2,112.3 555.0 n.a. 1,857.5 101.3 37.4 47 4 .0 182.4 1.505.9 6.0 5,494.9 3,456.8 715.4 2,106.1 587.3 33.0 2,038.1 124.1 36.2 36 2 .0 181.2 1.666.7 7.5 5,494.9 3,456.8 715.4 2,106.1 587.3 33.0 2,038.1 124.1 36.2 36.2 .0 181.2 1,666.7 7.5 5,535.3 3,467.1 720.1 2,091.9 598.7 41.5 2,068.2 139.1 35.4 36 4 .0 181.2 1,681.5 7.2 5.540.2 3,369.5 641.1 2,064.6 598.7 50.1 2,170.7 155.0 36.0 36.0 .0 180.7 1,769.1 7.7 5.518.7 3,331.0 637.7 2,009.1 610.4 41.9 2,187.7 164.4 35.1 35.1 .0 180.8 1,777.3 7.5 1,257.1 374.1 3 168 0 290.4 67.6 240.1 224.5 541.0 1,304.5 391.0 3 294 9 278.7 71.5 241.5 228.8 469.6 1,497.2 410.9 3411 2 261.8 91.6 214.1 258.5 482.5 1,655.7 451.9 3.393.4 269.8 88.9 224.9 265.0 493.0 1,655.7 451.9 3.393 4 269.8 88.9 224.9 265.0 493.0 1,670.4 400.0 3 430.7 279.2 84.8 225.5 268.1 442.4 1,757.6 458.4 3,330 6 275.0 82.9 228.0 267.2 441.0 180.5 150.7 688.7 784.6 185.0 162.7 862.2 794.9 187.0 169.6 1,135.6 610.5 186.5 168.4 1,278.0 418.8 186.5 168.4 1,278.0 418.8 186.3 165.8 1.240.2 538.4 186.0 165.0 1,247.4 438.0 1. The U.S. Treasury first issued inflation-indexed securities during the first quarter of 1997. 2. Includes (not shown separately) securities issued to the Rural Electrification Administration, depository bonds, retirement plan bonds, and individual retirement bonds. 3. Nonmarketable series denominated in dollars, and series denominated in foreign currency held by foreigners 4. Held almost entirely by U.S. Treasury and other federal agencies and trust funds. 5. Data for Federal Reserve Banks and U.S. government agencies and trust funds are actual holdings; data for other groups are Treasury estimates. 6. Includes state and local pension funds. 1995 n a. 7. In March 1996, in a redefinition of series, fully defeased debt backed by nonmarketable federal securities was removed from "Other miscellaneous investors" and added to "State and local treasuries." The data shown here have been revised accordingly. 8. Consists of investments of foreign balances and international accounts in the United States. 9. Includes savings and loan associations, nonprofit institutions, credit unions, mutual savings banks, corporate pension trust funds, dealers and brokers, certain U.S. Treasury deposit accounts, and federally sponsored agencies. SOURCE. U.S. Treasury Department, data by type of security, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United Stales; data by holder, Treasury Bulletin. A28 1.42 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES DEALERS Transactions1 Millions of dollars, daily averages 1998, week ending 1998 July Aug. Sept, Sept. 2 Sept. 9 Sept. 16 Sept. 23 Sept. 30 151,592 85,936 1,657 141,650 84,597 130,825 85,452 Oct. 28 OUTRIGHT TRANSACTIONS 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 By type of security U.S. Treasury bills Coupon securities, by maturity Five years or less More than five years Inflation-indexed Federal agency Discount notes Coupon securities, by maturity One year or less More than one year, but less than or equal to five years . . . . More than five years Mortgage-backed By type of counterparty With interdealer broker U.S. Treasury Federal agency Mortgage-backed With other 13 U.S. Treasury 14 Federal agency 15 Mortgage-backed 10 11 12 25,889 32,286 35,694 51,929 35,909 82,094 59,741 137,256' 77,455' 141,855' 85,071' 187,521' 105,015' 120,894' 74,135' 1,212' 1,205 717' 1,173' 862' 35,439 37,530 46,151' 42,747 39,628 1,325 1,095 1,127' 905 4,908 5,058 77,327 517 45.984 1,544 143,434 118,793 35,896 28,238 151,181 105,846 114,620 84,090 124,634 77,072 817 1,140 2,373 1,269 1,631 949 48,277 50,771 53,568 52,068 44,117 35,723 5.078 2,569 103,767 1,378 4,466 2,817 82,526 1,036 551 484 521 1,260 4,003 2,769 71,093 4,308 5,025 108.039 3,584 6,617 128,064 6,699 3,610 79,636 5,164 3,304 73,179 143,203 3,556 29,255 135.153 3,264 26,631 168,025 3,447 35.696 162,670 3,866 38,483 132,907 4,178 28,725 129,516 2,960 26,810 122,973 52,406 66,375 115,623 53,382 53,271 110,769 55,315 44,462 129,272 60,004 72,343 131,521 58,886 89,581 95,673 50,769 50,912 96,236 42,490 46,369 3,498 16,714 5.087 22,287 3,506 20,808 2,724 15,948 3,238 25,518 4,181 23,107 2,969 16,867 2,932 15,132 6,093 2,561 111,619' 2,892 2,700 61,434 4,118 3,583 72,609 4,853 2,911 89,908' 92,782 1,904 19,316 135,577 3,012 22,350 146,046 3,186 30,665 185,792 4,094 25,054 130,450 2,696 31,866 156.360 2.768 37,391 76,148 40,451 42,118 112,136' 43,314 50,258 117,747' 51,856 59,243' 159.536' 49,524 52,272 101,70C 46,102 79,753' 4,378 20,105 10,680 30,063 FUTURES TRANSACTIONS 3 By type of deliverable security 16 U.S. Treasury bills Coupon securities, by maturity 17 Five years or less 18 More than five years 19 Inflation-indexed Federal agency 20 Discount notes Coupon securities, by maturity 21 One year or less 22 More than one year, but less than or equal to five years 23 More than five years 24 Mortgage-backed 54 1,764 11,813 5,907 18,177 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,856 5,124 1,790 6,496 1,984' 6,152' 2,263 5,986 2,691 6,440 1,407 5,485 1,950 6,383 2,139 9,520 1,006 8,843 1,067 4,910 0 1,723 6,421 0 0 OPTIONS TRANSACTIONS 4 By type of underlying security 25 U.S. Treasury bills Coupon securities, by maturity 26 Five years or less 27 More than five years 28 Inflation-indexed Federal agency 29 Discount notes Coupon securities, by maturity 30 One year or less 31 More than one year, but less than or equal to five years 32 More than five years 33 Mortgage-backed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 745 1,050 623 1. Transactions are market purchases and sales of securities as reported to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by the U.S. government securities dealers on its published list of primary dealers. Monthly averages are based on the number of trading days in the month. Transactions are assumed to be evenly distributed among the trading days of the report week. Immediate, forward, and futures transactions an; reported at principal value, which does not include accrued interest; options transactions are reported at the face value of the underlying securities. Dealers report cumulative transactions for each week ending Wednesday. 2. Outright transactions include immediate and forward transactions. Immediate delivery refers to purchases or sales of securities (other ijian mortgage-backed federal agency securities) for which delivery is scheduled in five business days or less and "when-issued" securities that settle on the issue date of offering. Transactions for immediate delivery of mortgagebacked agency securities include purchases and sales for which delivery is scheduled in thirty business days or less. Stripped securities arereportedat market value by maturity of coupon or corpus. 0 0 0 0 793 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,083 10,416 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 1,005 0 533 387 0 1,531 925 Forward transactions are agreements made in the over-the-counter market that specify delayed delivery. Forward contracts for U.S. Treasury securities and federal agency debt securities are included when the time to delivery is more than five business days. Forward contracts for mortgage-backed agency securities are included when the time to delivery is more than thirty business days. 3. Futures transactions are standardized agreements arranged on an exchange. All futures transactions are included regardless of time to delivery. 4. Options transactions are purchases or sales of put and call options, whether arranged on an organized exchange or in the over-the-counter market, and include options on futures contracts on U.S. Treasury and federal agency securities. NOTE, "n.a." indicates that data are not published because of insufficient activity. 0 0 815 0 0 0 786 0 0 0 348 0 Federal Finance 1.43 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES DEALERS A29 Positions and Financing1 Millions of dollars 1998, week ending July Aug. Sept. Sept. 2 -18,708 -11,060 -5,360 -2,004 2,305 1,554 -4,625 -820 1,786 Sept. 9 Sept. 16 -7.456 597 -6,121 -3,598 Sept. 23 Sept. 30 Oct. 7 Oct. 14 Oct. 2 -2,612 -981 -2,708 -13,643 -6,447 -7,089 851 4,129 3,442 -4,303 5,759 2,895 1.875 7,872 2,397 25,268 19,174 12,984 1,649 3,678 7,320 48,856 1,692 1,923 1,872 4,140 7,996 57,363 4,447 7,630 49.939 6,601 6.904 52,229 -8,941 -22,013 -7,958 -25,637 -10,275 -23,512 -9,776 -23,713 NET OUTRIGHT POSITIONS 3 B\ type of security 1 U.S. Treasury bills Coupon securities, by maturity 2 Five years or less 3 More than five years 4 Inflation-indexed Federal agency 5 Discount notes Coupon securilies, by maturity 6 One year or less 7 More than one year, but less than or equal to five years 8 More than five years 9 Mortgage-backed 1,766 -16,440 -17,653 2,671 19,296 2,782 7,435 10,759 64,705 NET FUTURES POSITIONS 4 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 By type of deliverable security U.S. Treasury bills Coupon securities, by maturity Five years or less More than five years Inflation-indexed Federal agency Discount notes Coupon securities, by maturity One year or less More than one year, but less thai or equal to five years . . . . More than five years Mortgage-backed 4,845 16,408 2,756 17,211 17,042 3,355 1,536 1.327 1,403 19,191 20,889 17.117 11,696 3.37B 7,280 58,637 1,474 1,617 -4,879 -32,741 -8,716 -25.612 -5,851 -30,879 -6,506 -29,025 5,821 8,784 61,657 -7,093 -2,644 1,883 2,668 4.801 6,913 58,415 1,144 -4,346 -26,100 -896 3,211 5,033 6,512 62,539 2,961 5,992 6,371 66,404 -10,554 -26,815 2.653 4,906 7,344 55,797 -9,681 -23.089 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,050 -3,065 -827 -2,842 -1,153 -2,553 -957 -2,815 -1,878 -3,497 -911 -1,015 -2,147 -3,227 -1,125 -6,126 -1,377 -3,371 -1.560 -3,080 n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 267 -2,398 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. 1,477 4,126 0 n.a. 3.670 NET OPTIONS POSITIONS 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 B\ t\pe of deliverable security U.S.'Treasury bills Coupon securities, by maturity Five years or less More than five years Inflation-indexed Federal agency Discount notes Coupon securities, by maturity One year or less More than one year, but less th or equal to five years More than five years Mortgage-backed 0 n.a. 2,332 0 n.a. n.il. 1,954 0 1,629 0 n.a. n.a. 1,222 0 n.a. n.a. 1,692 0 n.a. n.a. 1,706 0 0 n.a. 2,517 0 0 Financing5 Reverse repurchase agreements 28 Overnight and continuing 29 Term 320,143 895,133 333,413 829,365 316,256 784,437 345,156 765,937 305,452 778.038 309.408 798,530 336,627 820,842 305,281 745,625 312,432 840.221 294,925 828.127 279.853 852,680 Securities borrowed 30 Overnight and continuing 31 Term 218,172 95,894 221,150 95.383 229,685 99,774 226,495 95,375 223,820 99.144 231,670 103,598 232,824 101.204 231,337 96,405 244.842 112.224 241,930 109,744 234,178 108,871 3,140 n.a. 2,770 n.a. 3,152 n.a. 2,641 n.a. 3,120 3,413 3,470 n.a. 2,752 n.a. 2,805 n.a. 2,772 2,886 n.a. Repurchase agreements 34 Overnight and continuing 35 Term 720,678 799,633 735,478 728.531 718,744 704,430 758,591 664,056 726,556 675,410 747,092 718,248 735,625 746,038 654,319 689,560 715.752 764.886 694,273 762,433 669,662 785,555 Securities loaned 36 Overnight and continuing 37 Term 10,999 3,623 12,518 3,830 11,057 4,119 10,495 3,803 10,932 10,016 3,936 10,007 3.897 13,432 4,925 8,473 4,121 8,511 4,186 6.495 3,673 Securities pledged 38 Overnight and continuing 39 Term 54,477 6,425 49,094 5,612 52,222 5,624 47,376 5,732 46,482 5.794 52,344 5,560 55.635 5,878 55,811 5,231 57,482 5,063 52,978 4,797 49,743 5,412 Collateralized loans 40 Total 16,787 21,580 14,140 18,238 13,879 14,678 16,520 10,311 24,276 19,091 23,000 Securities received as pledge 32 Overnight and continuing 33 Term 1. Data for positions and financing are obtained from reports submitted to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by the U.S. government securities dealers on its published list of primary dealers. Weekly figures are close-of-business Wednesday data. Positions for calendar days of the report week are assumed to be constant. Monthly averages are based on the number of calendar days in the month. 2. Securities positions are reported at market value. 3. Net outright positions include immediate and forward positions. Net immediate positions include securities purchased or sold (other than mortgage-backed agency securities) that have been delivered or are scheduled to be delivered in five business days or less and "when-issued" securities that settle on the issue date of offering. Net immediate positions for mortgage-backed agency securities include securities purchased or sold that have been delivered or are scheduled to be delivered in thirty business days or less. Forward positions reflect agreements made in the over-the-counter market that specify delayed delivery. Forward contracts for U.S. Treasury securities and federal agency debt securities are included when the time to delivery is more than five business days. Forward contracts for mortgage-backed agency securities are included when the time to delivery is more than thirty business days. 4. Futures positions reflect standardized agreements arranged on an exchange. All futures positions are included regardless of time to delivery. 5. Overnight financing refers to agreements made on one business day that mature on the next business day; continuing contracts are agreements that remain in effect for more than one business day but have no specific maturity and can be terminated without advance notice by either party; term agreements have a fixed maturity of more Ihan one business day. Financing data are reported in terms of actual funds paid or received, including accrued interest NOTE, "n.a." indicates that data are not published because of insufficient activity. A30 1.44 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY SPONSORED CREDIT AGENCIES Debt Outstanding Millions of dollars, end of period Agency 1 Federal and federally sponsored agencies 2 Federal agencies 3 Defense Department' 4 Export-Import Bank • 5 Federal Housing Administration4 6 Government National Mortgage Association certificates of participation5 7 Postal Service6 8 Tennessee Valley Authority 9 United States Railway Association 10 Federally sponsored agencies7 I 1 Federal Home Loan Banks 12 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 13 Federal National Mortgage Association 14 Farm Credit Banks8 15 Student Loan Marketing Association9 16 Financing Corporation 17 Farm Credit Financial Assistance ^Corporation11 18 Resolution Funding Corporation1' Apr. May 738,928 844,611 925,823 1,022,609 1,048,661 1,044,575 1,061,253 39,186 6 3.455 116 37,347 6 2,050 97 29,380 6 1,447 84 27.792 6 552 102 27,104 6 542 102 26.995 6 542 108 26,817 6 1,295 144 n.a. 8.073 27.536 n.a. 5,765 29,429 n.a. n.a. 27.853 n.a. n.a. n.a. 27,786 n.a. n.a. n.a. 27,098 n.a. n.a. n.a. 26,989 n.a. n.a. n.a. 26,811 n.a. 699.742 205,817 93,279 257,230 53,175 50,335 8,170 1.261 29,996 807.264 896,443 263,404 1,021,557 323,208 119.961 299,174 57,379 47,529 8,170 1,261 29.996 156,980 331,270 60,053 44,763 8,170 1.261 29.996 994,817 313,919 169.200 369,774 63,517 37,717 8,170 1,261 29.996 395,977 62,799 36,256 8.170 1,261 29.996 1,017,580 322,155 204.751 399,489 63,744 35,952 8,170 1,261 29,996 1,034,436 243 194 103,817 78,681 58,172 49,090 44,893 44,223 3,449 8,073 n.a. 3,200 n.a. 2,044 5,765 n.a. 3,200 n.a. 1,431 n.a. 552 33,719 17,392 37,984 21,015 17,144 29,513 18,325 16,702 21,714 200,800 July Aug. 26,990 6 26.668 6 n.a. 155 n.a. 26,984 n.a. n.a. n.a. 26,507 n.a. 64,717 33,231 8,170 1.261 29,996 1,090,715 328,009 208,800 415.229 64.528 33,270 8,170 1,261 29.996 1,103,596 334,494 213,800 423,188 57,910 33,350 8,170 1,261 29,996 136,892 42,610 42,396 328,514 200.314 406.162 MEMO 19 Federal Financing Bank debt13 20 21 22 23 24 Lending to federal and federally sponsored agencies Export-Import Bank3 . ' Postal Service6 Student Loan Marketing Association Tennessee Valley Authority United States Railway Association* Other lending'" 25 Farmers Home Administration 26 Rural Electrification Administration 27 Other 1. Consists of mortgages assumed by the Defense Department between 1957 and 1963 under family housing and homeowners assislance programs. 2. Includes participation certificates reclas:sified as debt beginning Oct. 1, 1976. 3. On-budget since Sept. 30, 1976. 4. Consists of debentures issued in payment of Federal Housing Administration insurance claims. Once issued, these securities may be sold privately on the securities market. 5. Certificates of participation issued before fiscal year 1969 by the Government National Mortgage Association acting as trustee for the Farmers Home Administration, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Small Business Administration, and the Veterans Administration. 6. Off-budget. 7. Includes outstanding noncontingent liabilities: notes, bonds, and debentures. Includes Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, therefore details do not sum to total. Some data are estimated 8. Excludes borrowing by the Farm Credit Financial Assistance Corporation, which is shown on line 17. 9. Before late 1982, the association obtained financing through the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). Borrowing excludes that obtained from the FFB, which is shown on line 22. 1,295 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. t n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.530 14.898 20.110 12,380 14,203 17,768 11,955 14,207 17,519 13,530 14,819 107,248 10,900 14,126 17,584 9,756 14,284 18,356 10. The Financing Corporation, established in August 1987 to recapitalize the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, undertook its first borrowing in October 1987. 11. The Farm Credit Financial Assistance Corporation, established in January 1988 to provide assistance to the Farm Credit System, undertook its first borrowing in July 1988. 12. The Resolution Funding Corporation, established by the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989, undertook its first borrowing in October 1989. 13. The FFB, which began operations in 1974, is authorized to purchase or sell obligations issued, sold, or guaranteed by other federal agencies. Because FFB incurs debt solely for the purpose of lending to other agencies, its debt is not included in the main portion of the table to avoid double counting. 14. Includes FFB purchases of agency assets and guaranteed loans; the latter are loans guaranteed by numerous agencies, with the amounts guaranteed by any one agency generally being small. The Farmers Home Administration entry consists exclusively of agency assets, whereas the Rural Electrification Administration entry consists of both agency assets and guaranteed loans. Securities Markets and Corporate Finance A31 1.45 NEW SECURITY ISSUES Tax-Exempt State and Local Governments Millions of dollars Type of issue or issuer, or use 1 All issues, new and refunding1 Apr. May July Aug. Sept. 145,657 171,222 214,694 27,859 20,271 22,862 29,665 22,599 20,344 17,526 19,528 By type of issue 2 General obligation . . 3 Revenue 56.980 88,677 60,409 110.813 69,934 134,989 9.597 18.261 8,154 12,117 4,827 18,035 10,135 19,530 6,515 16,084 5,812 14,532 5,619 11,907 6,791 12,737 By type of issuer 4 State 5 Special district or statutory authority 6 Municipality, county, or township 14.665 93.500 37,492 13.651 113,228 44,343 18,237 134,919 70,558 2,375 19,629 5,859 3,548 12,504 4,219 1,146 16,865 4,851 2,809 18,099 7,220 1,972 16,244 5,673 1,483 14,233 4,628 1,280 12,490 3,756 1,865 12,924 4,739 102,390 112,298 135,519 15,134 12,616 15,281 19,341 15,895 11,258 9,106 12,736 23,964 11,890 9,618 19,566 6,581 30,771 26,851 12,324 9,791 24,583 31,860 13,951 12,219 27,794 6,667 35,095 4,297 771 1,866 3,104 1.236 3.860 4.080 1.089 749 n.a. 2,819 1,043 5,971 n.a. 576 2.482 4,911 2,962 2.368 n.a. 563 5,279 2,733 3,677 795 n.a. 1,002 4,674 2,435 1,982 1,179 n.a. 2,041 918 831 n.a. 315 2,726 2.605 1.598 2,785 n.a. 471 3,359 7 Issues for new capital 8 9 10 11 12 13 By use of proceeds Education Transportalion Utilities and conservation Social welfare Industrial aid Other purposes 6,287 32,462 1. Par amounts of long-term issues based on date of sale. 2. Includes school districts. 1.46 NEW SECURITY ISSUES 678 3,255 709 2,764 SOURCE. Securities Data Company beginning January 1990; Investment Digest before then. Dealer's U.S. Corporations Millions of dollars 1998 Type of issue, offering, or issuer 1 All issues' 2 1995 1996 1997 673,571 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 75,961 115,694 83,646 84,449 109,687r July Aug.' Sept. 572,998 n.a n.a. 64,996 97,323 71,929 70,313 93,243r n.a. n.a. n.a. By type of offering 3 Public, domestic 4 Private placement, domestic3 5 Sold abroad 408,707 87,492 76,799 465,489 n.a. 83,433 537,880 n.a. 103,188 50,453 7,600 6,943 81,778 7,600 7,946 55,452 7,600 8.878 56,965 7,600 5,748 78.280 7,600 7.363 54,266 n.a. 6,267 45,745 n.a. 3,800 70,322 n.a. 2,618 By industry group 6 Nonfinancial 7 Financial 156,763 416,235 n.a. 429,157 n.a. 510,953 19,733 45.263 24.901 72,422 24.585 47,345 20.456 49,857 24,444' 68,799' n.a. 43,313 n.a. 36,746 n.a. 63.876 2 Bonds 8 Stocks 2 105 323 122 006 117 880 11,182 19 271 12 470 14 700 17,111 9 772 3,725 4,640 By type of offering 9 Public 10 Private placement1 73,223 32,100 122,006 n.a. 117,880 n.a. 11,182 n.a. 19,271 n.a. 12,470 n.a. 14,700 n.a. 17,111 n.a. 9,772 n.a. 3,725 n.a. 4,640 n.a. By industry group 11 Nonfinancial 12 Financial 52,707 20,516 80,460 41,546 60,386 57,494 5,737 5.445 10,756 8.515 5.551 6,919 9.271 5,429 10,248 6,863 6.390 3,382 2,560 1,165 2,266 2.374 1, Figures represent gross proceeds of issues maturing in more than one year; they are the principal amount or number of units calculated by multiplying by the offering price. Figures exclude secondary offerings, employee stock plans, investment companies other than closedend, intracorporate transactions, and Yankee bonds. Stock data include ownership securities issued by limited partnerships. 2, Monthly data cover only public offerings. 3, Monthly data are not available. SOURCE. Beginning July 1993, Securities Data Company and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. A3 2 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 1.47 Net Sales and Assets1 OPEN-END INVESTMENT COMPANIES Millions of dollars 1998 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.' Oct. 1 Sales of own shares2 934,595 1,190,900 128,348 128,828 113,593 122,288 134,801 111,587 118,478 116,150 2 Redemptions of own shares 3 Nel sales5 702,711 231,885 918,728 272,172 97,248 31,100 97,087 31.741 84,421 29,172 97,899 24,389 107,368 27.433 118.812 -7,225 107,049 11,429 109,438 6,712 4 Assets4 2,624,463 3,409,315 3,S43,971 3,909,932 3,882,061 3.986,952 3,957,093 3.479,401 3,625,841 3,804,731 5 Cash5 6 Other 138,559 2,485,904 174,154 3.235,161 174,058 3,669.913 170,045 3,739,887 171,425 3,710,636 199,135 3,787,817 195,966 3,761,127 194.435 3,284,967 211.253 3,414.588 210.481 3,594,249 4. Market value at end of period, less current liabilities. 5. Includes all U.S. Treasury securities and other short-term debi securities. SOURCE. Investment Company Institute. Data based on reports of membership, which comprises substantially all open-end investment companies registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Data reflect underwritings of newly formed companies after their initial offering of securities. 1. Data include stock, hybrid, and bond mutual funds and exclude money market mutual funds. 2. Excludes reinvestment of net income dividends and capital gains distributions and share issue of conversions from one fund to another in the same group. 3. Excludes sales and redemptions resulting from transfers of shares into or out of money market mutual funds within the same fund family. 1.48 CORPORATE PROFITS AND THEIR DISTRIBUTION Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1996 Account 1995 1 Profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment 2 Profits before taxes 3 Profits-lax liability 4 Profits after taxes 6 Undistributed profits 8 Capital consumption adjustment 1996 1997 1998 1997 Q4 Ql Q2 Q3 Q4 Ql Q2 Q3 672.4 635.6 211.0 424.6 205.3 219.3 750.4 680.2 226.1 454.1 261.9 192.3 817.9 734.4 246.1 488.3 275.1 213.2 762.0 685.7 224.2 461.5 273.6 187.9 794.3 712.4 238.8 473.6 274.1 199.5 815.5 729.8 241.9 487.8 274.7 213.2 840.9 758.9 254.2 504.7 275.1 229.5 820.8 736.4 249.3 487.1 276.4 210.6 829.2 719.1 219.9 479.2 277.3 201.8 820.6 723.5 241.6 481.8 278.1 203.7 823.9 717.0 243.8 473.2 279.0 194.3 -22.6 59.4 -1.2 71.4 6.9 76.6 3.0 73.3 8.1 73.8 10.3 75.5 4.8 77.2 4.3 80.1 25.3 84.9 7.8 89.4 12.1 94.9 SOURCE. U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business. 1.51 DOMESTIC FINANCE COMPANIES Assets and Liabilities' Billions of dollars, end of period; not seasonally adjusted 1996 Account 1994 1998 1997 1996 1995 Q4 Ql 02 Q3 Q4 Ql Q2' ASSETS 1 Accounts receivable, gross2 543.7 201.9 274.9 66.9 607.0 233.0 301.6 72.4 637.1 244.9 309.5 82.7 637.1 244 9 309.5 82.7 648.0 249.4 315.2 83.4 651.6 255.1 311.7 84.8 660.5 254.5 3195 86.4 663.3 256.8 318.5 87.9 667.2 251.7 325.9 R9.6 676.0 251.3 134.9 89.9 52.9 11 3 60.7 12 8 55.6 13 1 55.6 13 1 51.3 12 8 57.2 13 3 54.6 127 52.7 13 0 52.1 13 1 53.2 11 2 479.5 216.8 533.5 250.9 568.3 290.0 568.3 290.0 583.9 289.6 581.2 306.8 593.1 289.1 597.6 312.4 601.9 329.7 609.6 340.1 696 1 784 4 858 3 858 3 873 4 887.9 882 3 910 0 931 6 9497 14.8 171 6 15.3 168 6 19.7 177 6 19.7 177 6 18.4 185 3 18.8 193 7 20.4 189 6 24.1 201 5 22.0 211 7 22.3 225 9 14 All other liabilities 41.8 247.4 146.2 74 6 51.1 300.0 163.6 85 9 60.3 332.5 174.7 93 5 60.3 332.5 174.7 93 5 61.0 324.6 189.2 94 9 60.0 345.3 171.4 98 7 61.6 322.8 190.1 97 9 64.7 328.8 189.6 101 3 64.6 338.2 193.1 102 1 60.0 348.7 188.9 103 9 16 Total liabilities and capital «9(U 784.4 858.3 858.3 873.4 887.9 882.3 910.0 931.6 949.7 3 4 Business Real estate 5 LESS: Reserves for unearned income 8 All other 9 Total assets LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL 10 Bank loans . ... Debt 1. Includes finance company subsidiaries of bank holding companies but not of retailers and banks. Data are amounts carried on the balance sheets of finance companies; securitized pools are not shown, as they are not on the books. 2. Before deduction for unearned income and losses. Securities Market and Corporate Finance A33 DOMESTIC FINANCE COMPANIES Owned and Managed Receivables1 1.52 Billions of dollars, amounts outstanding 1998 Type of credit 1995 1996 1997 Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Seasonally adjusted 1 Total 682.4 761.9 809.8 825.3 833.0 831.3 840.6 846.4r SSI.4 1 283.1 72.4 326.8 307.7 111.9 342.4 327.7 121.1 361.0 328.9 121.9 374.5 330.2 124.2 378.6 332.5 120.9 377.9 336.6 125.2 378.7 339.1' 128.1 379.2 341.8 128.8 380.7 3 4 Real estate Not seasonally adjusted 5 Total 6 7 8 9 10 II 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 •>1 24 25 26 V 28 29 30 31 32 31 34 35 36 Consumer Motor vehicle leases Revolving" Other3 . . . Securitized assets4 Motor vehicle leases Revolving Other Real estate One- to four-family Other Securitized real estate assets4 One- to four-family Other Business Motor vehicles Retail loans Leases Loans Other business receivables Securilized assets4 Motor vehicles Retail loans Leases Loans Leases Other business receivables6 689.5 769.7 818.1 825.3 832.2 836.0 835.2 842.6r 847.8 285.8 81.1 80.8 28.5 42 6 310.6 86.7 92.5 32.5 33.2 130 9 87.0 96.8 38.6 34 4 326.7 90.6 95.9 30.4 114 329.4 89.6 95.9 30.5 31.5 335.4 89.9 97.0 29.9 34 4 338.5 91.7 97.3 29.6 15 0 140 5' 95.1 96.9 30.2 14.7 342.8 96.2 94.9 297 14.6 34 8 3.5 n.a. 14 7 72.4 n.a. 36.8 8.7 0.0 20 1 111.9 52.1 10 5 44.3 10.8 0.0 19 0 121.1 59.0 28 9 42.8 10.4 5.3 18 1 121.9 62.4 28 1 45.7 10.8 5.3 18 1 124.2 65.2 28.1 49.3 10.9 5.3 18 6 120.9 62.3 27.5 50.2 10.8 5.3 185 125.2 65.9 28 5 49.2 10.7 5.3 182 128.1 68.6 28.7 51.8 n.a. 331.2 66.5 21.8 16 6 8.0 8.0 8.0 80 8.0 28.9 0.4 147.2 67.1 25.1 110 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 33.0 0.2 366.1 6.1.5 25.6 27 7 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 .11.2 0.2 376.7 68.2 28.3 29 5 10.4 207.8 51.2 156.7 54.0 30.7 0.2 378.6 69.1 29.3 29 5 10.4 209.3 51.3 158.0 54.3 30.9 0.1 379.7 68.4 29.2 28 2 11.0 212.8 52.7 160.2 53.7 30.6 0.1 371.5 61.1 29.2 21 0 10.9 212.8 51.6 161.2 54.5 30.7 0.1 374.0 62.5 29.6 22.0 10.9 212.0 51.8 160.2 57.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 31.6 1.9 29.6 0.0 10.3 4.1 6.2 4.7 31.0 1.9 29.2 0.0 10.2 4.0 6.2 4.7 29.1 2.3 26.7 0.0 10.5 4.1 6.4 5.3 26.1 2.2 24.1 0.0 11.5 5.1 6.4 5.4 25.9 2.1 23.8 0.0 11.4 4.9 6.4 5.2 NOTE. This table has been revised to incorporate several changes resulting from the benchmarking of finance company receivables to the June I996 Survey of Finance Companies. In that benchmark survey, and in the monthly surveys that have followed, more detailed breakdowns have been obtained for some components. In addition, previously unavailable data on securitized real estate loans are now included in this table. The new information has resulted in some reclassitication of receivables among the three major categories (consumer, real estate, and business) and in discontinuities in some component series between May and June 1996. Includes finance company subsidiaries of bank holding companies but not of retailers and banks. Data in this table also appear in the Board's G.20 (422) monthly statistical release. For ordering address, see inside front cover. I. Owned receivables are those carried on the balance sheet of the institution. Managed receivables are outstanding balances of pools upon which securities have been issued; these balances are no longer carried on the balance sheets of the loan originator. Data are shown 53 188 I288 68.4 30.1 30.2 0.1 376.2 65.5 30.0 24.2 210.8 47.9 162.9 58.9 24.5 2.0 22.5 0.0 4.9 6.4 5.3 before deductions for unearned income and losses. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 2. Excludes revolving credit reported as held by depository institutions that are subsidiaries of finance companies. 3. Includes personal cash loans, mobile home loans, and loans to purchase other types of consumer goods such as appliances, apparel, boats, and recreation vehicles. 4. Outstanding balances of pools upon which securities have been issued; these balances are no longer carried on the balance sheets of the loan originator. 5. Credit arising from transactions between manufacturers and dealers, that is, floor plan financing. 6. Includes loans on commercial accounts receivable, factored commercial accounts, and receivable dealer capital; small loans used primarily for business or farm purposes; and wholesale and lease paper for mobile homes, campers, and travel trailers. A34 1.53 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 MORTGAGE MARKETS Mortgages on New Homes Millions of dollars except as noted 1998 Apr May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Terms and yields in primary and secondary markets PRIMARY MARKETS Terms 5 Fees and charges (percent of loan amount)2 Yield (percent per year) 6 Contract rate1 7 Effective rate'- 175.8 134.5 78.6 27.7 1.21 182.4 139.2 78.2 27.2 1.21 180.1 140.3 80.4 28.2 1.02 189.5 147.1 80.4 28.4 0.87 195.6 150.2 79.1 28.3 0.85 193.7 151.0 81.0 28.3 0.85 208.7 160.1 78.7 28.5 0.90 191.5 150.4 81.3 28.6 0.87 192.7 150.8 80.9 28.7 0.85 201.4 155.8 79.8 28.6 0.86 7.65 7.85 8.05 7.56 111 8.03 7.57 7.73 7.76 7.05 7.19 7.20 7.05 7.18 7.11 7.03 7.16 7.08 6.99 7.13 7.05 6.95 7.09 6.86 6.85 6.98 6.64 6.72 6.85 6.86 8.18 7.57 8.19 7.48 7.89 7.26 7.37 6.63 7.07 6.63 7.07 6.54 7.05 6.48 7.03 6.42 6.53 6.05 7.07 6.10 SECONDARY MARKETS Yield (percent per year) 9 FHA mortgages (Section 203)5 10 GNMA securities6 Activity in secondary markets FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION Mortgage holdings (end of period) 11 Total 12 FHA/VA insured 13 Conventional 253,511 28,762 224,749 287,052 30,592 256,460 316,678 31,925 284,753 333,571 32,734 300,837 343,922 32,771 311,151 349,249 32,896 316,353 359,827 33,036 326,791 366,890 32,929 333,961 375,665 32,903 342,762 386,452 32,814 353,638 14 Mortgage transactions purchased (during period) 56,598 68,618 70,465 14,668 17,423 11,916 17,326 14,316 15,681 18,967 Mortgage commitments (during period) 15 Issued7 16 To sell8 56,092 360 65,859 130 69.965 1,298 17,556 0 10,612 0 16.921 0 13,217 419 17.016 233 16,282 249 30,551 393 107,424 267 107,157 137,755 220 137,535 164,421 177 164,244 189,471 162 189,309 192,603 158 192,445 196,634 422 196,212 202,582 456 202,126 206,856 489 206,367 216,521' 569' 215,952' 231,458 575 230,833 98,470 85,877 125,103 119.702 117,401 114,258 25,132 24,479 23,743 23,338 22.394 21,133 22,605 22,263 21,507 20,634 25.366' 24,294 20,629 19,472 118,659 128,995 120,089 24,468 26,100 20,008 23,528 24,694 23,375 25,024 FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORPORATION Mortgage holdings (end of period^ 17 Total 18 FHA/VA insured Mortgage transactions (during periods 20 Purchases 21 Sales 22 Mortgage commitments contracted (during period)9 1. Weighted averages based on sample surveys of mortgages originated by major institutional lender groups for purchase of newly built homes; compiled by the Federal Housing Finance Board in cooperation with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. 2. Includes all fees, commissions, discounts, and "points" paid (by the borrower or die seller) to obtain a loan. 3. Average effective interest rate on loans closed for purchase of newly built homes, assuming prepayment at the end of ten years. 4. Average contract rate on new commitments for conventional first mortgages; from U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Based on transactions on the first day of the subsequent month. 5. Average gross yield on thirty-year, minimum-downpayment first mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) for immediate delivery in the private secondary market. Based on transactions on first day of subsequent month. 6. Average net yields to investors on fully modified pass-through securities backed by mortgages and guaranteed by the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), assuming prepayment in twelve years on pools of thirty-year mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration or guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. 7. Does not include standby commitments issued, but includes standby commitments converted. 8. Includes participation loans as well as whole loans. 9. Includes conventional and government-underwritten loans. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation's mortgage commitments and mortgage transactions include activity under mortgage securities swap programs, whereas the corresponding data for FNMA exclude swap activity. Real Estate 1.54 A35 MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING 1 Millions of dollars, end of period Type of holder and property 2 3 4 5 Q3 Q4 Ql Q2P All holders 433,545 4,604,609 4,930,487 5,062,766 5,180,917 5,279,333 5,380,907 5,505,783 By type of property One- to four-family residences Mullifamily residences Nanfarm, nonresidential Farm 3,355,868 271.823 682,883 82,971 3,530,400 281,788 707.861 84,561 3.761,560 300,665 781,129 87,134 3,860,763 305,963 807,361 88,680 3.956,815 308.418 825,923 89,760 4,029.268 314.590 845.058 90,417 4,102,830 320,237 866,414 91,425 4,195,738 326,527 890,538 92,980 1,819,806 1,012,711 615,861 1,894,420 1,090,189 669,434 43,837 353.088 23,830 596,763 482.353 61,987 52,135 288 207,468 7.316 23,435 167,095 9,622 1.979,114 1,145,389 698,508 46,675 375,322 24,883 628,335 513,712 61,570 52,723 331 205,390 6,772 23.197 165,399 10,022 2,033,599 1,196,461 733,694 49,116 387,588 26,063 629,062 516,521 60,070 52,132 338 208,077 6,842 23,499 167,548 10,188 2,068,002 1,227,131 752,323 49,166 398,841 26,801 631,444 519,564 60,348 51,187 346 209,426 7,080 23,615 168,374 10,358 2,086,721 1,244,108 762,531 50,642 403,957 26,978 631.822 520.672 59.543 51,252 354 210,792 7,186 23,755 169,377 10,473 2,119,279 1,270,032 779.927 51,790 410,859 27,456 637,012 527,036 59,074 50,532 369 212,235 7,321 23,902 170,423 10.589 2,124.259 1,280,732 784,929 52,175 415,311 28,316 629,882 520.276 58,704 50,519 383 213.645 7.488 24,038 171,393 10.726 306,774 300.935 292,581 293,499 0 41,791 17,705 11,617 6,248 6,221 9,809 5.180 4,629 1,864 691 647 525 0 4,303 492 428 3,383 0 176,824 161,665 15,159 28,428 1,673 26,755 43,753 39,901 3,852 292.966 7 7 0 41.400 17,239 11,706 7,135 5,321 4,200 2,299 1,900 0 0 0 0 0 1,816 272 309 1,235 0 170,386 157,729 12,657 29,963 1.763 28,200 45.194 40,092 5,102 291,410 7 2 0 41,596 17,303 11,685 6,841 5,768 6,244 3,524 2,719 0 0 0 0 0 2,431 365 413 1,653 0 174,556 160,751 13,805 29,602 1,742 27,860 46,504 41,758 4,746 0 41,332 17,458 11,713 7,246 4,916 3,462 1,437 2,025 0 0 0 0 0 1,476 221 251 1,004 0 168,458 156,363 12,095 30,346 1,786 28,560 46.329 40,953 5,376 0 41,195 17,253 11,720 7,370 4.852 3.821 1.767 2.054 0 0 0 0 0 724 109 123 492 0 167,722 156,245 11,477 30,657 1.804 28.853 48.454 42,629 5,825 0 40,972 17,160 11,714 7,369 4,729 3.694 1,641 2,053 0 0 0 0 0 786 118 134 534 0 166,670 155,876 10,794 31,005 1,824 29,181 50,364 44,440 5,924 294,547 8 8 0 40,921 17,059 11,722 7,497 4,644 3,631 1.610 2,021 0 0 0 0 0 564 85 96 384 0 167,202 156.769 10,433 31,352 1,845 29,507 50,869 44,597 6.272 2,145,995 520,938 507,618 13.320 567,187 564,445 2,742 673,931 654,826 19,105 2 0 0 0 383,937 279,450 24,355 80.132 0 2,202,549 529,867 516,217 13,650 569,920 567,340 2,580 690,919 670,677 20,242 2 0 0 0 2 411,841 299,400 25,655 86,786 0 2,272,999 536,810 523,156 13.654 579,385 576,846 2,539 709,582 687,981 21.601 2 0 0 0 2 447,219 318,000 29.264 99.955 0 2,330,674 533,011 519,152 13,859 583.144 580.715 2,429 730,832 708,125 22,707 2 0 0 0 2 483,685 336,824 33,477 113,384 0 2,442,603 537,586 523.243 14,343 609,791 607.469 2,322 761,359 737,631 23,728 2 0 0 0 2 533,865 364,316 38,144 131,405 0 590,206 377,966 82,081 111,591 18,567 618,955 405,990 81,702 112,486 18,777 627,033 413.082 82,392 112.655 18,904 637,4.55 422,663 82,379 113,312 19,100 644,375 428,413 82.529 114,031 19.402 By type of holder 6 Major financial institutions 7 Commercial banks' 8 One- to four-family 9 Mullifamily 10 Nonfarm. nonresidential 11 Farm 12 Savings institutions 13 One- to four-family 14 Multifamily 15 Nonfarm, nonresidential 16 Farm 17 Life insurance companies 18 One- to four-family 19 Multifamily 20 Nonfarm, nonresidential 21 Farm 22 Federal and related agencies 23 Governmenl National Mortgage Association One- to four-family . Multifamily Fanners Home Administration One- to four-family Multifamily Nonfarm. nonresidential Farm Federal Housing and Veterans' Administrations One- to four-family Multifamily Resolution Trust Corporation One- to four-family Multifamily Nonfarm. nonresidential Farm Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation One- lo four-family Mullifamily Nonfarm, nonresidential Farm Federal National Mortgage Association One- to four-family Multifamily Federal Land Banks One- to four-family Farm Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation One- to four-family Multifamily 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 Q2 One- to four-family Multifamily Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation One- to four-family Multifamily Federal National Mortgage Association One- to four-family Multifamily Farmers Home Administration One- to four-family Multifamily Nonfarm. nonresidential Farm Private mortgage conduits One- lo four-family Multifamily Nonfarm. nonresidential Farm 73 Individuals and others7 74 One- to four-family 75 Multifamily 76 Nonfarm. nonresidential . . 77 Farm 39,346 334,953 22,551 596,191 477,626 64,343 53,933 289 210,904 7,018 23,902 170,421 9.563 315,580 6 6 0 41,781 18,098 11,319 5,670 6,694 10,964 4,753 6,211 10.428 5,200 2,859 2,369 0 7,821 1,049 1,595 5,177 0 174,312 158,766 15,546 28,555 1,671 26,885 41,712 38,882 2,830 1,730,004 450,934 441,198 9.736 490,851 487,725 3,126 530,343 520,763 9.580 19 3 0 9 7 257.857 208,500 11,744 37,613 0 1,863,210 472,283 461,438 10,845 515,051 512,238 2,813 582,959 569,724 13,235 11 0 5 4 292,906 227,800 15,584 49,522 0 2,064,882 506,340 494,158 12.182 554.260 551,513 2,747 650,780 633,210 17,570 3 0 0 0 3 353,499 261,900 21,967 69,633 0 528,155 368,749 69,686 72,738 16,983 540,206 372,786 73.719 75,859 17.841 585,556 376,341 81.389 109.558 18.268 1. Multifamily debt refers to loans on structures of five or more units. 2. Includes loans held by nondeposit trust companies but not loans held by bank trust departments. 3. Includes savings banks and savings and loan associations. 4. FmHA-guaranteed securities sold to the Federal Financing Bank were reallocated from FmHA mortgage pools to FmHA mortgage holdings in 1986:Q4 because of accounting changes by ihe Farmers Home Administration. 5. Outstanding principal balances of mortgage-backed securities insured or guaranteed by the agency indicated. 7 6. Includes securitized home equity loans. 7. Other holders include mortgage companies, real estate investment trusts, state and local credit agencies, state and local retirement funds, noninsured pension funds, credit unions, and finance companies. SOURCE. Based on data from various institutional and government sources. Separation of nonfarm mortgage debt by type of property, if not reported directly, and interpolations and extrapolations, when required for some quarters, are estimated in part by the Federal Reserve. Line 69 from Inside Mortgage Securities and other sources. A36 1.55 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 CONSUMER CREDIT1 Millions of dollars, amounts outstanding, end of period 1998 Holder and type of credit 1995 1996 1997 Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Seasonally adjusted 1,095,711 1 Total 364,209 443,183 288.319 3 Revolving 4 Other2 1,181,913 392,321 499,486 290,105 1,233,099 1,251,864' 1,254,302' 1,263,683' 1,269,266' 1,273,725' 1.282.08S 421,213' 541,834' 288,817' 422,624' 541,184' 290,495' 425,510' 545,339' 292,834' 427,749' 543.140' 298,377' 431,499' 545.258' 296.969' 433,354 548,360 300,374 413,369 531,140 288,590 Not seasonally adjusted 1,122,828 1,211,590 1,264,103 1,241,238' 1,243,178' 1,256,897' 1,262,382' 1,273,941' 1,285,123 501,963 152,123 131,939 40,106 85,061 211,636 526.769 152.391 144,148 44.711 77,745 265,826 512,563 160.022 152.362 47,172 78,927 313,057 500.207 154,328 151,056' 47,500 65,093' 323,054 497.389 153.556 152.218' 47,915 65,227' 326,873 491,509 154.275 152,400' 48.329 65,265' 345,119 491,777 156,366 153,735' 48,744 65,481' 346,279 498,775 160,151 154,146' 49,158 66,011' 345,700 499,958 160,457 155,666 49,571 65,601 353,870 Finance companies Pools of securitized assets4 367,069 151,437 81,073 44,635 395.609 157,047 86,690 51,719 416,962 155,254 87,015 64,950 415.975' 151.278 90,564 63,737 418,244' 151.677 89.569 65,988 425,227' 150.877 89,948 71,615 429.350' 153,203 91,741 72,470 434,178' 155.508 95,257 70,766 437,340 155,970 96,183 72,477 16 Revolving 17 Commercial banks 18 Finance companies 19 Nonfinancial business^ 20 Pools of securitized assets4 464,134 210,298 28,460 53,525 147,934 522,860 228,615 32,493 44.901 188,712 555,858 219,826 38,608 44,966 221,465 535,602' 209,171 30,398 33.487 233,668 535,576' 207,318 30,495 33,412 235,347 539,572' 200,901 29,893 33,544 245,635 536,882' 197,646 29,605 33,807 246,031 542,095' 200,424 30,155 34,009 247,422 545,704 198,946 29,691 33,743 253,366 21 Other 291,625 140,228 42,590 31,536 19,067 293,121 141,107 33,208 32,844 25,395 291,283 137,483 34,399 33,961 26,642 289,661' 139,758 33,366 31,606' 25,649 289.358' 138.394 33,492 31,815' 25,538 292.098' 139.731 34,434 31,721' 27,869 296,150' 140,928 35.020 31,674' 27,778 297,668' 142,843 34,739 32,002' 27,512 302,079 145,042 34,583 31,858 28,027 5 Total By major holder 6 Commercial banks 7 Finance companies 9 Savings institutions 10 Nonfinancial business1 11 Pools of securitized assets By major type of credit5 12 Automobile 14 15 23 24 25 Finance companies Nonfinancial business3 Pools of securitized assets 1. The Board's scries on amounts of credit covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals. Data in this table also appear in the Board's G.19 (421) monthly statistical release. For ordering address, see inside front cover. 2. Comprises mobile home loans and all other loans that are not included in automobile or revolving credit, such as loans for education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. 1.56 3. Includes retailers and gasoline companies. 4. Outstanding balances of pools upon which securities have been issued; these balances are no longer carried on the balance sheets of the loan originator. 5. Totals include estimates for certain holders for which only consumer credit totals are available. TERMS OF CONSUMER CREDIT1 Percenl per year except as noted 1998 Item 1995 1996 1997 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. INTEREST RATES Commercial banks1 2 24-month personal 9.57 13.94 9.05 13.54 9.02 13.90 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.69 13.76 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.71 13.45 n.a. n.a. Credit card plan 3 All accounts 4 Accounts assessed interest 15.90 15.64 15.63 15.50 15.77 15.57 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.67 15.62 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.83 15.85 n.a. n.a. Auto finance companies 5 New car 6 Used car 11.19 14.48 9.84 13.53 7.12 13.27 5.94 12.79 6.20 12.76 6.07 12.73 6.02 12.63 6.25 12.51 6.00 12.68 5.92 12.65 54.1 52 2 51.6 51 4 54.1 510 51.5 52 6 50.7 52 9 50.8 52 9 50.9 54 0 51.7 54 1 53.0 54 1 53.1 54 2 92 99 91 100 92 99 92 97 91 98 93 99 91 100 92 100 93 101 93 101 16.210 11,590 16.987 12,182 18.077 12.281 18,932 12,431 18,922 12.716 18,793 12,607 18,878 12,698 19,084 12,733 19,068 12,407 19,028 12,731 OTHER TERMS 1 Maturity (months) 1 New car 8 Used car Loan-to-value ratio 9 New car 10 Used car Amount financed (dollars) 12 Used car I. The Board's series on amounts of credit covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals. Data in this table also appear in the Board's G.19 (421) monthly statistical release. For ordering address, see inside front cover. 2. Data are available for only the second month of each quarter. 3. At auto finance companies. Flow of Funds A37 1.57 FUNDS RAISED IN U.S. CREDIT MARKETS1 Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Transaction category or sector 1996 1993 Q2 Ql Q3 Q4 Ql Q2' Q3 Nonfinancial sectors 1 Total net borrowing by domestic nonfinancia! sectors. 588.0 571.5' 700.4' 726.7' 769.6r 675.9r 617.7' 829.6 955.1r 922.1' 938.0 930.6 By sector and instrument 2 Federal government 3 Treasury securities 4 Budget agency securities and mortgages 256.1 248.3 7.8 155.9 155.7 .2 144.4 142.9 1.5 145.0 146.6 -1.6 23.1 23.2 -.1 64.9 66.3 -1.4 -43.5 -43.8 .2 30.3 31.2 -.9 40.8 39.0 1.7 -30.0' -27.6' -2.4 -70.9 -69.4 -1.4 -136.5 -136.1 -.4 415.6' 555.9' 581.7' 746.4' 611.0' 661.2' 799.2' 914.3' 952.1' 1,008.9 1,067.0 18.1 -48.2 73.3 102.3 67.2 204.3' 173.9' 8.0' 20.8' 1.6 138.9 -.9 2.6 72.5 66.2 33.8 318.8' 265.3' 12.7' 38.3' 2.6 88.8 13.7 71.4 90.7 107.3' 68.7' 342.1' 268.3' 11.5' 59.1' 3.3 52.5 7.2 34.1 79.4 140.7 34.2 253.0' 218.2' 4.1' 28.6' 2.1 62.5 20.3 59.6 86.1 118.1 20.8' 296.7' 211.4' 12.9' 68.4' 4.1 59.5 14.5 88.9 122.9 31.6 78.0' 413.01 334.2' 6.6' 67.9r 4.3 50.3 12.8 103.2 74.4 138.7' 141.6' 405.8 309.3 22.3 71.6 2.6 37.8 53.9 116.7 157.2 55.8' 83.2' 428.1' 324.1' 19.9 80.0' 4.0 57.3' 6.6 100.1 160.8 157.3 37.9 481.2 360.5 22.6 91.9 6.2 65.1 88.4 84.1 88.0 1.0 60.7 21.4 -35.9 23.3 75.2 34.0 172.7' 178.2' -1.3' -6.4' 2.2 124.9 207.8 57.9 52.1 3.2 2.6 66.2 311.0' 150.9' 143.3' 3.3 4.4 -46.2 343.7' 263.7' 236.8' 23.9 2.9 -51.5 370.3' 218.2' 171.4' 42.0' 4.8 -6.8 355.6' 334.8' 265.0' 63.5 6.4 56.1 334.9' 259.2' 206.4' 47.8 4.9 16.9 329.7' 289.1' 214.5' 68.6 6.0 42.5 362.9' 363.8' 291.5' 66.8' 5.5 72.6 394.9' 427.1' 347.5' 70.6' 9.0 92.3 437.2' 420.6' 331.4' 81.4' 7.9 94.3 469.8 460.2 354.6 98.2 7.4 78.9 472.7 521.6 404.7 69.8 -9.6 82.9 .7 -4.2 -14.0 -26.1 12.2 71.1 13.5 49.7 8.5 -.5 76.9 11.3 55.8 9.1 .8 56.9 3.7 46.7 8.5 -2.0 31.2 15.5 15.5 -.7 .9 61.7 10.4 38.7 11.5 1.2 92.5 -11.6 100.3 7.3 -3.5 42.3 .7 32.4 15.7 -6.5 68.5' 56.0 14.3 5.2' -7.0 86.6 -24.8 107.5 -27.0 6.9 -4.4 8.4 3.5 -2.6 990.6' 1,024.7 903.5 839.8' 1,012.9 5 Nonfederai 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 By instrument Commercial paper Municipal securities and loans Corporate bonds Bank loans n.e.c Other loans and advances Mortgages Home Multifamily residential Commercial Farm Consumer credit 17 18 19 20 21 22 By borrowing sector Household Nonfinancial business Corporate Nonfarm noncorporate Farm Slate and local government 23 Foreign net borrowing in United States 24 Commercial paper 25 Bonds 26 Bank loans n.e.c 27 Other loans and advances 28 Total domestic plus foreign 10.0 74.8 75.2 6.4 -18.9 123.7 156.2 -6.8 -26.7 657.8 1.4 -1.5 557.5' 771.5' 803.6 r 826.5' 707. l r 679.3' 922.1' 997.4 r 142.6 78.0 497.8 365.8 22.9 103.9 5.3 88.2 110.2 6.7 72.7 -34.8 Financial sectors 29 Total net borrowing by financial sectors 30 31 32 33 By instrument Federal government-related Government-sponsored enterprise securitii Mortgage pool securities Loans from U.S. government 34 Private 35 Open market papier . . 36 Corporate bonds 37 Bank loans n.e.c 38 Other loans and advances 39 Mortgages 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 By borrowing sector Commercial banking Savings institutions Credit unions Life insurance companies Government-sponsored enterprises Federally related mortgage pools Issuers of asset-backed securities (ABSs) . Finance companies Mortgage companies Real estate investment trusts (REITs) Brokers and dealers Funding corporations 657.1r 595.5' 286.2 198.1 88.1 .0 161.0 46.4 114.6 .0 298.1 157.9 140.3 .0 6.2 370.9' 77.0 229.4' -6.0 63.0 7.5 434.5' 168.8 194.8' 23.2 37.5 10.1 244 2 345.8 30.7 61.7 7.3 14.4 -16.8 -.2 .8 -8.9 114.6 85.8 5.6 -.7 15.1 -2.9 129.7 76.4 31.9 .2 .1 198.1 88.1 120.7' 120.5 -12.2 19.8 34.9 -21.5 32.5 22.3 .2 .2 61.0 41.7 .3 -.3 157.9 294.4 468.4 456.4 556.2 644.3' 336.5 165.3 80.6 287.5 176.9 115.4 -4.8 204.1 105.9 98.2 .0 231.5 90.4 141.1 .0 212.8 98.4 114.4 .0 114.6 .0 180.9 40.5 121.8 -13.7 22.6 9.8 252.3 42.7 196.7 3.9 3.4 5.6 324 7 92.2 179.7 16.9 27.9 7.9 431.5' 166.7 20.1 22.5 2.6 13.0 46.1 19.7 .1 84.7 .0 129.1 -5.5 123.1 -14.4 22.4 3.6 13.4 11.3 .2 .2 80.6 84.7 83.6 -1.4 .0 3.4 12.0 6.3 12.8 .2 .3 172.1 115.4 72.9 48.7 -11.5 13.7 .5 23.1 -A 105.9 98.2 141.1 50.2 .4 5.7 -5.0 34.9 25.5 .1 1.1 90.4 141.1 153.6 45.9 12.4 11.0 -2.0 64.1 207.9' 13.6 35.6 7.8 T 98^4 114.4 204.4' 48.7 -1.3 24.8 8.1 80.7 230.9 176.6 61.7 6.5 -20.1 46.4 114.6 226.2' 8.9 3.6 32.0 -6.9 115.4 140.3 385.1' 59.6 4.2 32.1 7.0 99.2 227.3 142.5 84.8 .0 612.5' 237.4 315.5' 18.9 32.7 8.0 83.5 10.6 .5 .0 142.5 84.8 254.4' 80.1 5.2 36.3 -1.0 142.8 413.4 166.4 247.0 .0 561.6 294.0 267.5 .0 599.5 134.8 373.5 7.2 76.0 8.0 431.2 141.0 158.8 41.1 82.3 8.0 80.0 31.2 78.2 63.7 -.6 166.4 247.0 367.2 101.8 -5.5 1.0 1.6 294.0 267.5 272.4 -13.6 3.0 27.4 33.9 20.0 -28.6 16.5 -19.1 A38 1.57 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 FUNDS RAISED IN U.S. CREDIT MARKETS'—Continued 1996 Transaction category or sector Ql Q2 Q3 Q4 Ql Q2' Q3 52 Total net borrowing, all sectors 952.2 l,025.9 r l,227.8 r 1,359.8' l,470.7r 1,043.7' 1,336.4' l,517.6 r 1,985.3' l,830.3 r 2,037.6 1,896.3 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 -5.1 421.4 74.8 281.2 -7.2 35.7 448.1 -35.9 157.3 62.9 50.3 182.5' 124.9 74.3 348.5 -48.2 319.6 114.7 70.2 209.9' 138.9 102.6 376.5 2.6 308.0 92.1 62.5 326.8' 88.8 184.1 235.9 71.4 345.4' 129.3' 102.2' 149.9' 52.5 199.3 170.6 34.1 156.6 146.5 15.0 259.2' 62.5 107.7 242.6 59.6 354.2' 123.6 85.0' 304.2' 59.5 171.7 191.3 88.9 418.1' 62.2 112.01 423.1' 50.3 257.7 338.9 103.2 452.7' 185.1' 196.8' 413.1 37.8 347.3 197.3' 116.7 487 0' 79.9' 108.9' 436.1' 57.3' 116.6 342.5 100.1 641.8 172.9 109.4 489.2 65.1 236.2 425.1 84.1 212.0 187.2 157.6 505.8 Open market paper U.S. government securities Municipal securities Corporate and foreign bonds Bank loans n.e.c Other loans and advances Mortgages Consumer credit -.8 127.3 60.7 Funds raised through mutual funds and corporate equities 61 Total net issues 429.7 125.2 143.9 234.2' 183.3' 171.7' 175.0' 240.8' 145.9' 209.4' 260.3 62 Corporate equities 63 Nonfinancial corporations 64 Foreign shares purchased by U.S. resident! 65 Financial corporations 66 Mutual fund shares 137.7 21.3 63.4 53.0 292.0 24.6 -44.9 48.1 21.4 100.6 -3.5 -58.3 50.4 4.4 147.4 -3.4' -64.2 60.0 .8' 237.6 -"81.8 -114.4' 41.3 -8.6' 265.1 -77.9' -90.4 46.6 -34.1' 249.6 -75.1' -100.0 54.4 -29.4' 250.1 -59.1' -124.0 64.3 .5' 299.9 -115.1' -143.3' -.3 28.5' 261.0 -112.0' -139.2' 13.6 13.6' 321.4 -123.4 -128.7 4.0 1.3 383.7 1. Data in this table also appear in the Board's Z. 1 (780) quarterly statistical release, tables F.2 through F.4. For ordering address, see inside front cover. -266.7 -221.8 -33.1 Flow of Funds 1.58 SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS' Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1997 Transaction category or sector 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998' 1997 Ql Q2 Q3 Q4 Ql Q2 NET LENDING IN CREDIT MARKETS 2 1 Total net lending in credit markets 952.2 1,227.8' 1,359.8' 1,470.7' 1,043.7' 1,336.4' 1,517.6' 1,985.3' 1,830.3 2,037.6 2 Domestic nonfederaJ nonfinancial sectors 41.6 1.0 9.1 -1.1 32.6 -18.4 129.3 799.7 36.2 142.2 149.6 -9.8 .0 2.4 -23.3 21.7 9.5 100.9 27.7 49.5 22.7 20.4 159.5 20.0 87.8 84.7 81.0 -20.9 .0 .6 14.8 -35.3 238.0' 274.7' 17.7 .6 -55.0 -27.5 132.3 683.0 31.5 163.4 148.1 11.2 .9 3.3 6.7 28.1 7.1 66.7 24.9 45.5 22.3 30.0 -7.1 -3.7 117.8 115.4 65.8 48.3 -24.0 4.7 -44.2 -16.2 -W7.W -11.5' -8.8 4.7 -91.4 —2 273.9 1,061.1' 12.7 265.9 186.5 75.4 -.3 4.2 -7.6 16.2 -8.3 99.2 21.5 61.3 27.5 86.5 52.5 10.5 84.7 98.2 119.3 49.9 -3.4 2.2 90.1 -17.8' -10.7' -11.4' 20.0' 4.4 -23.7 -7.7 414.7 963.5' 12.3 187.5 119.6 63.3 3.9 .7 19.9 25.5 -7.7 72.5 22.5 48.3 45.9 88.8 48.9 4.7' 92.0 141.1 123.4 18.4 8.2 2.0 -15.7 25.2' -108.2' -125.4' 14.8' 2.7 -.3 4.9 312.5' 1,261.5' 38.3 324.3' 274.9 40.2 5.4 3.7' -4.7 16.8 7.6 101.0 25.2 67.6 36.6 87.5 80.9 -3.4' 95.0 114.4 166.0' 21.9 16.4 -2.0 13.7 58.6' -253.6' -285.4' 58.8' 2.5 -29.5 1.7 330.6 964.9' 34.4 3)6.0 206.1 101.7 2.2 6.1 -5.3 20.5 3.4 88.3 6.0 55.0 23.2 58.2 63.9 -3.4' 44.9 114.6 62.3 39.8 -1.3 -2.1 -14.5 60.9' -59.8' -75.5' -28.7' 2.7 41.8 5.7 308.6' 1,081.8' 42.9 290.0 286.7 -3.6 5.1 1.8 23.8 25.2 10.7 174.4 28.0 58.5 34.6 26.1 90.0 -3.4' 119.9 88.1 105.9' .9 -24.4 -2.1 -11.7 4.7' -160.3' -153.7' 31.7 2.8 -41.0 3.3 402.9' 1,271.7' 22.9 226.2 220.7 4.6 -5.0 5.8 -35.3 13.6 7.3 106.0 32.0 66.2 79.1 121.5 108.0 -3.4' 55.8 114.6 163.7' 68.3 82.9 -2.1 15.8 28.7' 40.7' 12.9' -2.6' 2.9 27.5 9.0 208.01 1,727.7' 52.9 464.9' 386.2 58.2 19.4 1.1' -2.0 7.7 8.8 35.3 34.7 90.7 9.5 144.2 61.8 -3.4' 159.2 140.3 332.2 -21.3' 8.3 -1.7 65.3 140.2' -232.0 -261.4 33.8 3.0 -7.4 15.5 237.4 1,809.4 27.4 292.9 260.5 11.6 15.3 5.5 10.1 16.5 2.4 102.9 23.4 72.6 81.7 172.0 143.6 -2.4 166.0 84.8 195.3 28.7 10.4 -2.0 250.4 132.6 433.9 321.6 -27.8 3.2 136.9 12.8 317.5 1,273.4 7.7 136.1 130.5 18.1 -17.6 5.1 -11.7 22.7 3.1 67.2 -1.5 141.8 60.6 200.1 152.6 -2.4 143.4 247.0 336.1 27.1 -11.0 -2.0 -188.6 -54.8 952.2 l,025.9 r 1,227.8' 1,359.8' 1,470.7' 1,043.7' 1,336.4' 1,517.6' 1,985.3' 1,830.3 2,037.6 .8 .0 .4 -18.5 50.5 117.3 -70.3 -23.5 20.2 71.3 137.7 292.0 52.2 61.4 36.0 255.7' 11.4 .9 25.5 340.0 -5.8 .0 .7 52.9 89.8 -9.7 -39.9 19.6 43.3 78.2 24.6 100.6 94.0 -.1 34.5 246.2 2.6 17.8 55.6 252.4' 8.8 2.2 .6 35.3 9.9 -12.7 96.6 65.6 142.3 110.4 -3.5 147.4 101.5' 26.7 44.9 233.2 6.2 4.0 71.3' 457.3' -6.3 -.5 .1 85.9 -51.6 15.8 97.2 114.0 145.8 40.0 -3.4' 237.6 76.9' 52.4 43.6 230.8 16.2 -8.6 49.3' 451.4' .7 -.5 .0 107.4 -19.4' 41.5 97.1 122.5 157.6 115.2 -81.8' 265.1 9Z.C? 110.1 52.9 296.8 14.6' 75.0 40.6' 593.4' -17.6 -2.1 .4 186.7 -78.4 81.8 151.5 56.3 157.6 32.7 -77.9' 249.6 59.9' 110.4 49.8 256.6 21.7 68.8 49.6' 787.2' .4 .0 .2 23.9 -57.0 50.6 34.0 174.7 98.9 218.9 -75.1' 250.1 48.8' 127.5 62.5 318.9 14.1' 71.8 47.5' 532.0' 2.4 .0 1.3 116.1 -21.7' -38.4 47.0 188.4 226.2 111.2 -59.1' 299.9 130.0' 90.6 62.8 326.9 30.2' 80.8 48.2' 636.7' 17.5 .0 -1.9 103.0 79.6' 71.9 155.9' 70.7' 147.8 98.1 -115.1' 261.0 153.2' 111.9 36.6 284.8 -7.6' 78.4 17.2' 417.7' 1.0 .0 .3 -45.3 -107.1 65.6 154.9 186.2 248.0 242.8 -112.0 321.4 90.6 168.9 47.3 253.8 9.4 50.3 36.5 1,220.1 8.1 .0 .2 89.0 23.3 109.3 36.2 -16.5 186.4 -45.4 -123.4 383.7 4.7 -110.3 36.8 280.6 -6.7 57.5 9.9 422.0 2,313.0' 2,083.2' 2,776.0' 2,946.5' 3,557.6' 3,188.3' 3,279.2' 3,797.0' 3,966.0' 4,663.0 3383.0 -.2 -5.7 4.2 46.4 15.8 -170.8 -.2 43.0 -2.7 69.4 16.6 -150.0' -.5 25.1 -3.1 22.9 21.1 -213.5' -.9 59.4 -3.3 -.7 20.4 -82.0' -.6 107.4 -19.9' 59.5' 17.2' -254.9' -.3 176.9 30.3 -107.3 19.3 26.9' -.5 10.7' -26.7 185.3 29.3' -414.3' .7 93.8' -50.0 -10.6' 15.3' -94.8' -2.4 148.3 -33.0' 170.5' 5.2' -537.4' -.2 -94.7 30.7 99.3 6.5 92.5 -.3 145.1 11.4 -107 3 9 -108.2 -1.5 -1.3 -4.0 -4.8 -2.8 1.5 -6.0 -3.8 -11.7' .5 -4.0 -27.0 1 -2.7 -3.9 15.1' -4.6 -3.3 -8.7' -8.3 -4.3 -58.7' 10.0 -3.0 48.C -7.9 -5.0 79.7' 7.5 -4.0 12.6 -41.7 -3.0 -97.1 2,113.3' 2,945.3' 2,984.2' 3,640.4' 3,059.2' 3,566.7' 3,787.6' 4,148.1' 4,512.9 3,583.2 3 Household 4 Nonfinancial corporate business 5 Nonfarm noncorporate business 6 State and local governments 7 Federal government 8 Rest of the world 9 Financial sectors 10 Monetary authority 11 Commercial banking 12 U.S.-chartered banks 13 Foreign banking offices in United States .. 14 Bank holding companies 15 Banks in U.S.-affiliated areas 16 Savings institutions 17 Credit unions 18 Bank personal trusts and estates 19 Life insurance companies 20 Oiher insurance companies 21 Private pension funds 22 State and local government retirement funds . . . . 23 Money market mutual funds 24 Mutual funds 25 Closed-end funds 26 Government-sponsored enterprises 27 Federally related mortgage pools 28 Asset-backed securities issuers (ABSs) 29 Finance companies 30 Mortgage companies 31 Real estate investment trusts (REITs) 32 Brokers and dealers 33 Funding corporations RELATION OF LIABILITIES TO FINANCIAL ASSETS 34 Net flows through credit markets 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Other financial sources Official foreign exchange Special drawing rights certificates Treasury currency Foreign deposits Net interbank transactions Checkable deposits and currency Small time and savings deposits Large time deposits Money market fund shares Security repurchase agreements Corporate equities Mutual fund shares Trade payables Security credit Life insurance reserves Pension fund reserves Taxes payable Investment in bank personal trusts Noncorporate proprietors" equity Miscellaneous 55 Total financial sources 56 57 58 59 60 61 Liabilities not identified as assets ( —) Treasury currency Foreign deposits Net interbank liabilities Security repurchase agreements Taxes payable Miscellaneous Floats not included in assets ( - ) 62 Federal government checkable deposits 63 Other checkable deposits 64 Trade credit 65 Total identified to sectors as assets 2,430.0r 1. Data in this table also appear in the Board's Z.I (780) quarterly statistical release, tables F.J and F.5. For ordering address, see inside front cover. 2. Excludes corporate equities and mutual fund shares. A39 A40 1.59 Domestic Financial Statistics • January 1999 SUMMARY OF CREDIT MARKET DEBT OUTSTANDING1 Billions of dollars, end of period 1998 1994 Transaction category or sector Q2 Ql Q3 Q4 Q3 Nonnnancial sectors 1 Total credit market debt owed by domestic nonfinancial sectors 13,013.7' 13,714.1' 14,440.8' 15,208.8' 14,608.2' 14,727.5' 14,931.5' 15,208.8' 15,440.4' 15,636.0' 15,865.1 3,492.3 3,636.7 3,608.5 28.2 3,781.8 3.755.1 26.6 3,804.9 3,778.3 3,829.8 3,803.5 26.3 3,760.6 3 771.2 3,745.1 3,804.9 26.1 26.5 3.830.8' 3,804.8' 25.9 3,749.0 3.723.4 25.6 3,720.2 3,694.7 25.5 10,077.3' 10,659.0' 11,403.9' 10,778.4' 10,966.9' 11,160.2 11,403.9' 11,609.7' 11,887.1' 12,145.0 156.4 1,296.0 1,398.8 928.3 770.6 4,897.2' 3 761 ff 289.9' 759.1' 87.1 1,211.6 168.6 1.367.5 1,489.5 1,035.6' 839.3' 5,239.3 4.029.3 301.4 818.3 90.4 1.264.1 168.7 1,305.1 1,418.7 964.5 784.4 4,950.6' 179.3 1,326.8 1,440.2 1,000.2 788.5r 5,026.8' 3,860.6' 294.2 783.4' 168.6 1,367.5 1,489.5 1.035.6' 839.3' 5,239.3 4.029.3 301.4 818.3 90.4 1.264.1 1,236.1' 202.5 1,429.3' 1,569.0 1.097.01 873.8' 5,458.6' 4,192.4' 312.0 861.2' 93.0 1,256.9' 216.9 1,440.0 1,591.0 1,123.9 887.6 5,596.9 4,297.6 317.7 1,205.0 176.6 1,340.2 1,470.9 1,000.1 802.9' 5.142.7 3,956.8 295.8 800.3' 89.8 1,226.7 193.1 1,397.1 1,528.8 1,051.6' 865.6' 5,337.4' 4,101.3' 83.0 983.9 157.4 1,293.5 1,326.3 862.1 736.9 4,578.4' 3 529 4' 273.6' 690.8' 84.6 1.122.8 By borrowing sector Household Nonnnancial business Corporate Nonfarm noncorporate Farm State and local government 4,452.5' 3,947.3' 2,683.2' 1,121.8 142.2 1.121.7 4,801.1' 4,206.0' 2,915.1' 1,145.8 145.1 1,070.2 5,142.7' 4,452.9' 3,115.3' 1,187.7' 149.9 1,063.4 5,500.9' 4,783.5' 3,376.1' 1,251.2' 156.3 1,119.5 5.177.1' 4.532.3' 3.184.3' 1.199.7' 148.3 1.069.0 5.268.6r 4.612.2' 3.241.9' 1,216.8' 153.4 1,086.1 5 379.0' 4,685.7' 3,297.4' 1,232.9' 155.4 1,095.5 5,500.9' 4,783.5' 3,376.1' 1.251.2' 156.3 1,119.5 5,558.5' 4.906.9' 3,479.9' 1,271.6' 155.4 1,144.3 5,683.7' 5,032.5' 3,575.5' 1,296.1 160.9 1,170.8' 5,823.5 5,142.7 3,656.7 1,323.0 163.0 1,178.8 23 Foreign credit market debt held in United States 370.8 441.9 518.8 569.6 524.3 539.2 557.7 569.6 584.1 606.6' 600.3 24 25 26 27 42.7 242.3 26.1 59.8 56.2 291.9 34.6 59.3 67.5 347.7 43.7 60.0 65.1 394.4 52.1 58.0 69.3 71.3 361.2 64.3 386.3 46.4 48.2 58.9 65.1 394.4 52.1 58.0 76.7 398.0 53.4' 55.9 71.4 424.9' 55.5 54.8 74.0 416.2 56.4 53.8 .... By set lor and instrument 2 Federal government 3 Treasury securities 4 Budget agency securities and mortgages 3.465.6 26.7 5 Nonfederal By instrument Commercial paper Municipal securities and loans Corporate bonds Bank loans n.e.c Other loans and advances Mortgages Home Multifamily residential Commercial Farm Consumer credit 17 18 19 20 21 22 Commercial paper Bonds Bank loans n.e.c Other loans and advances 28 Total credit market debt owed by nonnnancial sectors, domestic and foreign 139.2 1,341.7 1.253.0 759.9 669.6 4,374.1' 3,355.5' 265.6 670.0' 13,384.5' 14,156.0' 14,959.6' 26.5 15,778.4' 3,805.7' 290.9' 766.3' 87.7 1.186.4 351.6 43.5 59.9 15,132.5' 3,734.3 26.3 88.7 60.3 15,266.7' 3.778.3 306.4 838.3 91.4 887.2 94.3 1,288.7 15,489.2' 15,778.4' 16,024.5' 16,242.6' 16,465.5 Financial sectors 29 Total credit market debt owed by financial sectors 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 By instrument Federal government-related Government-sponsored enterprise securities Mortgage pool securities Loans from U.S. government Private Open market paper Corporate bonds Bank loans n.e.c Other loans and advances Mortgages 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 By borrowing sector Commercial banks Bank holding companies Savings institutions Credit unions Life insurance companies Government-sponsored enterprises Federally related mortgage pools Issuers of asset-backed securities (ABSs) Brokers and dealers Finance companies Mortgage companies Real estate investment trusts (RFJTs) Funding corporations 3,822.2 4,281.2 4,837.3 5,448.6' 4,916.5 5,084.9' 5,205.3' 5,448.6' 5,653.5' 5,911.5' 6,164.5 2,172.7 700.6 1.472.1 .0 1,649.5 2,376.8 806.5 1,570.3 .0 2,608.3 896.9 1,711.4 .0 2,229.1 579.1 1,385.1 69.7 162.9 32.2 2,821.0 995.3 1,825.8 .0 2,627.5' 745.7 1.560.0' 2.634.7 2,706.2 944.2 1,762.1 .0 2,746.5 2,821.0 995.3 1,825.8 .0 2,627.5' 745.7 1,560.0' 83.3 198.5 40.0 2,877.9 1,030.9 1,847.0 .0 2.775.6' 804.9 1,634.7' 87.3 206.6 42.0 2,981.2 1,072.5 1,908.7 .0 2,930.3' 838.9 1,732.5' 89.3 225.6 44.0 3,121.6 1,146.0 1,975.6 .0 3,042.9 874.2 1,777.3 99.3 246.2 46.0 148.7 181.2 162.9 .7 1.8 1,030.9 1,847.0 159.6' 190.5' 363.4 140.6 168.6 160.3 .6 1.8 995.3 1,825.8 1.089.3' 35.3 554.5 30.3 72.6 373.8 35.1 571.9 31.6 81.7 412.9 .8 1.6 1,072.5 1,908.7 1,236.7' 40.1 596.9 30.2 90.1 413.0' 169.6 20O.3 186.6 1.0 2.0 1,146.0 1,975.6 1,308.7 44.2 589.5 30.9 97.0 413.1 20,694.5 21,227.0 21,678.0' 22,154.1' 22,630.0 1,074.8 6,708.6' 1,397.1 3,561.5' 1,192.3' 1,128.2' 5,379.4' 1,236.1' 1,112.7 6,730.2 1.429.3' 3,726.4' 1,241.8' 1.154.3' 5.502.6' 1,256.9' 1.165.1 6,841.8 1.440.0 3,784.5 1,279.6 1,187.5 5,642.9 1,288.7 441.6 1.008.8 48.9 131.6 18.7 1.904.4 486.9 1.205.4 52.8 135.0 24.3 94.5 102.6 133.6 148.0 115.0 .4 112.4 .5 .6 700.6 1,472.1 579.0 34.3 433.7 18.7 31.1 211.0 s 113.6 150.0 140.5 .4 1.6 806.5 896.9 1,570.3 720.1 29.3 483.9 19.1 36.8 248.6 1,711.4 873.8 27.3 529.8 31.5 47.8 312.7 83.3 198.5 40.0 140.6 168.6 160.3 .6 1.8 995.3 1,825.8 1,089.3' 35.3 554.5 30.3 72.6 373.8 894.7 1,740.0 .0 2,281.8 623.0 2,378.6' 642.5 1,396.5 70.6 157.9 33.8 1,457.6' 69.2 173.7 35.6 115.3 151.6 136.3 .4 1.8 894.7 1,740.0 889.9 26.6 528.4 31.4 51.6 348.6 125.7 160.5 144.3 .4 1.8 944.2 1.762.1 917.9' 35.3 557.8 28.3 56.6 350.0 955.8 1,790.7 .0 2,458.8' 684.7 1,478.1' 74.8 183.0 38.2 130.0 164.0 149.8 .5 1.9 955.8 1,790.7 989.0' 33.6 532.7 29.2 64.6 1.147.2' 170.7 All sectors 53 Total credit market debt, domestic and foreign 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 Open market paper US. government securities Municipal securities Corporate and foreign bonds Bank loans n.e.c Other loans and advances Mortgages Consumer credit 17,206.8' 18,437.2r 19,797.0' 623.5 5.665.0 1,341.7 2.504.0 834.9 860.9 4,392.8' 983.9 700.4 6,013.6 1,293.5 2,823.6 949.6 931.1 4,602.7' 1,122.8 803.0 6,390.0 1,296.0 3.131.7 1,041.7 993.6 4,929.4' 1,211.6 1. Data in this table also appear in the Board's Z. 1 (780) quarterly statistical release, tables L.2 through L.4. For ordering address, see inside front cover. 21,227.0 979.4 6,625.9 1,367.5 3,444.0' 1,171.0' 1,095.8' 5.279.3 1,264.1 20,049.0' 861.1 6,464.5 1,305.1 3,166.8 1,078.6 1,002.3 4,984.3' 1,186.4 20,351.5' 893.1 6,466.8 1,326.8 3,259.1' 1,115.8 1,022.5' 5,062.5' 1,205.0 925.7 6,517.7 1,340.2 3,335.3' 1,123.1 1,044.9' 5,180.9 1,226.7 979.4 6,625.9 1,367.5 3,444.0' 1,171.0' 1,095.8' 5,279.3 1,264.1 Flow of Funds 1.60 A41 SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ASSETS AND LIABILITIES1 Billions of dollars except as noted, end of period 1998' Transaction category or sector 1994 Qi Q2 Q3 Q4 Ql Q2 Q3 21227.0 21,678.0 22,154.1 22,630.0 2,761.1' 1,791.3' 305.8' 49.4 614.5 200.4 2,258.9' 16,006.6' 431.4 4,031.9' 3,450.7 2,699.8 2,766.7 1,778.2 289.7 51.0 2,758.4 1,739.5 291.8 51.8 675.3 210.9 CREDIT MARKET DEBT OUTSTANDING 1 Total credit market assets 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2S 29 30 31 32 33 Domestic nonfederal nonfinancial sectors Household Nonfinancial corporate business Nonfarm noncorporate business State and local governments Federal government Rest of the world Financial sectors Monetary authority Commercial banking U.S.-chartered banks Foreign banking offices in United States . . Bank holding companies Banks in U.S.-afnliated areas Savings institutions Credit unions Bank personal Irusts and estates Life insurance companies Other insurance companies Private pension funds State and local government retirement funds Money market mutual funds Mutual funds Closed-end funds Government-sponsored enterprises Federally related mortgage pools Asset-backed securities issuers (ABSs) Finance companies Mortgage companies Real estate investment trusts (RElTsj Brokers and dealers Funding corporations 17,206.8' 18,437.2' 19,797.0' 21,227.0 3,038.1" 1,981.4' 289.2 37.6 729 9 203.4 2,890,0' 1,928.7' 280.4 42.3 1,216.0 1,5303 13,813.7' 2.919.3' 1,966.7' 291.0' 46.7 614.8 195.5 1,931.2 14,750.9' 393.1 3,707.7 2,761.1' 1,791.3' 305.8' 49.4 614.5 200.4 2,258.9' 16,006.6' 431.4 4,031.9' 3,450.7 516.1 27.4 37.8' 12,749.2 368.2 3,2543 2,869.6 337.1 18.4 638.6 203.2 380.8 920.8 246.8 248.0 1,482.6 446.4 656.9 455.8 459.0 718.8 86.0 663.3 1,472.1 541.7 476.2 36.5 133 93.3 109.3 3,520.1 3,056.1 412.6 18.0 33.4 913.3 263.0 239.7 1,581.8 468.7 718.2 483.3 545.5 7713 96.4 748.0 1,570.3 661.0 526.2 33.0 15.5 183.4 94.1' 17,206.8r 18,437.2' 29.2 3,175.8 475.8 22.0 34.1 933.2 288.5 232.0 1,654.3 491.2 766.5 529.2 634.3 820.2 101.1' 813.6 1,711.4 784.4 544.5 41.2 17.5 167.7 119.3' 928.5 305.3 239.5 1,755.2 515.3 834.2 565.8 721.9 901.1 97.7' 908.6 1,825.8 950.4' 566.4 57.6 15.5 20,049.0' 20,351.5' 20,694.5 2,849.1' 1,909.6' 286.8 47.4 605.4 195.9 2,019.4 14.984.6' 397.1 3.775.7 3,218.1 499.5 225 356 9319 291.2 2,798.0' 1,849.7' 281.4' 48.0 618.9 197.3 2,095.0' 15,261.2' 412.4 3,856.8 3,295.2 501.8 23.8 36.1 937.8 299.9 235.5 1,724.1 498.6 794.9 542.7 656.5 861.3 99.4' 854.8 1,762.1 818.9' 553.1 34.8 16.5 161.2 139.9' 2,739.4' 1,793.7' 290.4' 48.7 606.6 198.2 2,196.4' 15,560.5' 412.7 3,912.9 3.351.9 501.0 22.5 37.5 929.0 303.9 2373 1,750.4 506.6 811.5 516.1 27.4 37.8' 928.5 305.3 239.5 1.755.2 515.3 834.2 565.8 721.9 901.1 1,744.4 294.7 50.2 610.5 204.3 2.323.5 16,450.3 433.8 4,093.3 3,505.1 517.9 31.2 39.2 931.0 306.7 647.8 207.5 2,401.6 16.7783 440.3 4,136.4 3.543.6 525.6 26.8 40.4 928.1 315.1 2,421.7 17,239.0 446.5 4.195.6 3,616.2 510.0 283 41.1 937.8 320.7 241.4 1.8233 5183 912.1 240.1 240.9 908.6 1,825.8 950.4' 566.4 57.6 15.5 181.4 1,784.8 521.1 852.3 582.5 775.0 939.3 97.1 949.5 1,847.0 993.5 572.0 60.2 15.0 244.0 1.801.9 520.8 887.7 600.2 815.9 977.6 96.5 985.9 173.2' 212.0 1,075.3 579.0 57.4 14.5 196.9 199.2 21,678.0 22,154.1 22,630.0 48.9 9.2 18.3 619.4 219.7' 1,286.6 2,474.1 713.4 1,048.7 815.1 2,989.4 468.2 646.7 7,399.0' 1,417.0' 138.4' 1,082.8 6,504.4' 48.2 9.2 18.4 608.1 182.7 1,259.4 2,525.2 760.9 1,130.7 879.5 3,340.2 505.3 658.6 7.957.6 1.407.0 149.4 1.179.3 6.789.6 50.1 9.2 18.4 192.2 1.321.0 2,530.8 754.0 1,153.7 867.0 3,439.0 481.0 667.8 8,052.7 1,413.9 140.4 1,207.2 6.874.4 54.5 9.2 18.8 649.6 192.8 1,282.8 2.553.4 776.2 1,249.7 913.6 3.1173 491 8 674.3 7.528.6 1,422.8 150.8 1.112.4 7,210.9 49,126.2' 4S.244.2' 46,629.6' 48,102.1' 49,126.2' 51,087.1 51,957.0 52,039.5 181.4 173 2' 232.8 1,680.2 491.6 780.3 531.6 659.0 838.5 100.3' 824.3 1,740.0 794.6 552.4 40.9 17.0 164.1 141.1' 562.0 678.7 890.4 98.5' 868.7 1,790.7 863.3' 554.4 55.5 15.9 165.1 142.9' 97.7' 1,908.7 621.4 869.9 1,007.0 95.9 1,048.1 1,975.6 1,138.4 593.7 58.9 14.0 227.8 192 7 RELATION OF LIABILITIES TO FINANCIAL ASSETS 34 Total credit market debt 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Other liabilities Official foreign exchange Special drawing rights certificates .. . Treasury currency Foreign deposits Net interbank liabilities Checkable deposits and currency Small time and savings deposits Large time deposits Money market fund shares Security repurchase agreements Mutual fund shares Security credit Life insurance reserves Pension fund reserves Trade payables Taxes payable Investment in bank personal trusts . . . Miscellaneous 53 Total liabilities Financial assets not included in liabilities (+) 54 Gold and special drawing rights 55 Corporate equities 56 Household equity in noncorporate business 57 58 59 60 61 62 Liabilities not identified as assets ( —) Treasury currency Foreign deposits Net interbank transactions Security repurchase agreements Taxes payable Miscellaneous Floats not included in assets (—) 63 Federal government checkable deposits 64 Other checkable deposits 65 Trade credit 66 Total identified to sectors as assets 53.2 8.0 17.6 373.9 280.1 1,242.0 2,183.2 411.2 602.9 549.5 1,477.3 279.0 5053 4,870.5 1,140.6 101.4 699.4 5,331.6' 37,333.7' 63.7 10.2 18.2 418.8 290.7 1,229.3 2.279.7 476.9 745.3 659.9 1,852.8 305.7 550.2 5,589.4' 1,242.2' 107.6 803.0 5,705.9' 19,797.0' 53.7 9.7 18.3 516.1 240.8 1,245.1 2,377.0 590.9 891.1 699.9 2,342.4 358.1 593.8 6,315.4' 1,319.0' 123.8 871.7 6,028.5' 40,786.5' 44,392.1' 48.9 9.2 18.3 619.4 219.7' 1,286.6 713.4 1,048.7 815.1 2,989.4 468.2 646.7 7.399.0' 1.417.0' 138.4' 1,082.8 6,504.4' 20,049.0' 46.3 9.2 18.4 562.8 210.9 1,220.0 2,427.1 606.0 950.8 713.8 2,410.6 380.0 606.2 6,402.3' 1.301.8' 137.3 888.7 6,302.8' 20,351.5' 20,694.5 46.7 9.2 18.4 568.8 197.1 1,265.3 2,432.3 646.7 952.4 766.7 2,717.5 414.8 621.9 6,907.5' 1,319.8' 133.9' 982.9 6,276.1' 46.1 9.2 18.7 597.8 189.4' 1,234.2 2,438.8 696.1 1,005.1 795.4 2,973.6 4322 6376 7,290.6' 1,352.0' 143.2' 1,058.9 6,488.9' 21,227.0 630.4 22.1 8331.3 3.598.7" 21.4 10,062.4 3,806.7' 21.1 12,776.0 4,129.6' 20.9 10,063.5 3,903 4' 21.1 11,627.0 3,992.9' 21.0 12,649.4 4,059.6' 21.1 12,776.0 4,129.6' 21.2 14,397.6 4,140.2 21.0 14,556.1 4.169.2 21.2 12,758.4 4,151.0 -5.4 -5.8 325.4 360.2 -6.5 -9.0 67.8 90.7 48.8 62.4 -1,039.2' -1.324.3' -6.7 431.2 -10.6 90.0 76.9 -1,698.4' -7.3 534.5 -32.2' 149.5' 91.5' -2,106.4' -6.8 475.4 -1.6 68.1 74.8 -1,576.9' -6.9 478.1' -8.1 108.6 77.6' -1,675.4' -6.7 -73 501.5 534.5 -22.1 -32.2' 116.4' 149.5' 88.0' 91.5' -1.656.8' -2,106.4' -7 4 510.8 -21.2 177.8 87.3 -2,017.5 -7.4 547.1 - 17.1 145.7 91.6 -2,022.3 -7.1 558.1 -15.5 170.4 97.9 -1,990.9 26.2 -280.5' -9.7 25 6 -339.5' -6.8 27.9 -366.6' 26.2 -280.5' -10.4 21.4 -330.0 -16.1 24.2 -365.9 -12.0 15.7 -390.4 67,685.8' 60,522.6' 63,642.1' 66,172.6' 67,685.8' 71,235.2 72,323.7 70,543.7 21.1 6.237.9 3,380.4' 3.4 38.0 -245.9 3.1 34.2 -257.6' -1.6 30.1 -284.5' 47,786.6' 53,784.7' 59,656.3' 1. Data in this table also appear in the Board's Z. 1 (780) quarterly statistical release, tables L. 1 and L.5. For ordering address, see inside front cover. 21,227.0 -8.1 19.5 -372.3' 2. Excludes corporate equities and mutual fund shares. A42 2.10 Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics • January 1999 NONFINANCIAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY Selected Measures Monthly data seasonally adjusted, and indexes 1992=100, except as noted 1996 1 Industrial production 2 3 4 5 6 7 Market groupings Products, total Final, total Consumer goods Equipment Intermediate Materials 122.5 124.2 115.2 140.3 117.1 142.5 123.2 125.3 115.8 142.4 116.9 142.7 Apr. May June July' Sept.' Oct. 131.3 131.9 130.6 130.5 132.5 132.0 132.0 124.0 126.2 116.4 143.6 117.3 143.1 124.5 126.6 116.8 144.2 118.2 143.6 123.6 125.5 115.1 144.1 118.0 141.8 123.3 124.7 114.0 143.9 119.1 141.9 125.1 127.0 116.1 146.5 119.1 144.5 124.4 126.1 115.2 145.8 118.9 144.5 124.4 126.4 115.1 146.6 118.4 144.4 110.7 111.5 109.5 114.9 108.1 120.4 114.4 115.5 111.3 122.7 110.9 127.8 119.6 121.1 114.1 133.9 115.2 138.2 115.9 121.4 129.7 82.7 81.4 82.0 81.8 81.6 81.7 81.6 80.2 122.1 130.9' 142.2' 148.O1 144.01 149.0' 149.0' 149.0' 150.0 148.0 140.0 136.0 122.5 102.4 99.1 100.5 128.9 180.9 179.5 151.2 176.7 172.4 122.8 102.7 99.1 100.4 129.3 181.4 180.3 151.0 177.0 173.7 123.2 102.5 99.0 100.1 129.7 182.2 181.5 151.5 177.5 175.8 123.3 102.6 98.9 99.9 130.0 182.7 181.8 150.5 177.9 176.0 123.5 101.9 97.9 98.4 130.4 183.4 182.8 149.6 178.6 174.8 123.8 102.4 98.4 99.1 130.6 184.2 184.1 151.4 179.2 174.9 123.9 102.2 98.3 99.2 130.9 184.5 184.3 151.8 179.4 175.4 124.0 102.1 98.1 98.9 131.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 177.1 162.2 130.1 162.5 130.4 162.8 130.6 163.0 130.7' 163.2 130.9 163.4 130.6 163.6 130.6 164.0 131.4 Industry groupings 8 Manufacturing 9 Capacity utilization, manufacturing (percent) 10 Construction contracts^ 11 Nonagricultural employment, total4 12 Goods-producing, total 13 Manufacturing, total 14 Manufacturing, production workers 15 Service-producing 16 Personal income, total 17 Wages and salary disbursements 18 Manufacturing 19 Disposable personal income 5 20 Retail sales5 Prices6 21 Consumer (1982-84=100) 22 Producer finished goods (1982= 100) 114.9 98.3 97.5 99.0 120.2 156.1 150.9 130.3 156.4 151.5 117.2 99.0 97.2 98.4 123.0 165.2 159.8 135.7 164.0 159.6 119.9 100.3 97.6 98.9 126.2 174.5 171.2 144.7 171.7 166.9 122.4 102.6 99.1 1O0.6 128.8 180.2 178.9 151.0 176.0 172.2 152.4 127.9 156.9 131.3 160.5 131.8 161.9 130.2 1. Data in this table appear in the Board's G.17 (419) monthly statistical release. The data are also available on the Board's web site, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/gl7. The latest historical revision of the industrial production index and the capacity utilization rates was released in November 1998. The receni! annual revision is described in an article in the January 1999 issue of the Bulletin. For a description of the methods of estimating industrial production and capacity utilization, see "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Historical Revision and Recent Developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92, and the references cited therein. For details about the construction of individual industrial production series, see "Industrial Production: 1989 Developments and Historical Revision," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 76 (April 1990), pp. 187-204. 2. Ratio of index of production to index of capacity. Based on data from the Federal Reserve, DRI McGraw-Hill, US. Department of Commerce, and other sources. 2.11 3. Index of dollar value of total construction contracts, including residential, nonresidential, and heavy engineering, from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. 4. Based on data from U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Earnings. Series covers employees only, excluding personnel in the armed forces. 5. Based on data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business. 6. Based on data not seasonally adjusted. Seasonally adjusted data for changes in the price indexes can be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review. NOTE. Basic data (not indexes) for series mentioned in notes 4 and 5, and indexes for series mentioned in notes 3 and 6, can also be found in the Survey of Current Business. LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Thousands of persons; monthly data seasonally adjusted Category 1995 1996 1997 Mar. Apr. May Sept.' July HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA 1 1 Civilian labor force2 Employment 2 Nonagricultural industries3 3 Agriculture Unemployment 4 Number 5 Rate (percent of civilian labor force) 132,304 133,943 126,297 137,242 137,364 137,447 137,296 137,415 138,075 137,976 121,460 3,440 123,264 3,443 126,159 3.399 127,862 3,132 128,033 3,350 128,118 3,335 127,867 3,343 127,626 3,441 127,640 3,529 128,247 3,518 128,075 3,603 7,404 5.6 7,236 5.4 6,739 4.9 6.529 4.7 5,859 4.3 5,910 4.3 6.237 4.5 6,230 4.5 6,247 4.5 6,310 4.6 6,299 4.6 117,191 119,523 122,257 124,914 125,234 125,562 125,751 125,869 126,191r 126,348 126,464 18.524 581 5,160 6,132 27,565 6,806 33,117 19,305 18,457 574 5,400 6,261 28,108 6,899 34,377 19,447 18,538 573 5,627 6,426 28,788 7,053 35,597 19,655 1-8,829 587 5,860 6,504 29,042 7,258 37,106 19,728 18,827 582 5,930 6,513 29,133 7,289 37,196 19,764 18,805 579 5,917 6,534 29,238 7,311 37,350 19,828 18,780 578 5,946 6,538 29,269 7,333 37,494 19,813 18,594 571 5,970 6,550 29,374 7,370 37,614 19,826 18,693 571 5,989' 6,570' 29,383' 7,372 37,691' 19,922' 18,683 570 5,968 6,572 29,472 7,385 37,756 19,942 18,631 565 5,987 6,591 29,463 7,410 37,851 19,966 ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY DATA 6 Nonagricultural payroll employment4 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Manufacturing Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Trade Finance Service Government 1. Beginning January 1994, reflects redesign of current population survey and population controls from the 1990 census. day; population figures. 3. Includes self-employed, unpaid family, and domestic service workers. 4. Includes all full- and part-time employees who worked during, or received pay for, the pay period that includes the twelfth day of the month; excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, household and unpaid family workers, and members of the armed forces. Data are adjusted to the March 1992 benchmark, and only seasonally adjusted data are available at this time. SOURCE. Based on data from U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Earnings. Selected Measures A43 2.12 OUTPUT, CAPACITY, AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION' Seasonally adjusted 1997 Q4' 1998' Ql Q2 Q3 Output (1992=100) 1 Total industry .. 129.8 130.4 2 Manufacturing.. . 3 4 Q4r Ql Q2 Q3 Capacity (percent of 1992 output) Q4r Ql Q2 Q3 Capacity utilization rate (percent) 131.3 131.7 155.7 159.6 161.5 83.4 82.7 82.3 81.5 134.7 134.9 161.3 165.8 168.1 82.5 81.8 81.2 80.3 Primary processing Advanced processing4 121.0 139.0 121.2 140.1 121.1 141.4 120.4 142.1 141.8 170.7 143.0 173.5 144.0 176.4 145.1 179.2 85.3 81.4 84.8 80.8 84.1 80.2 83.0 79.3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Durable goods Lumber and products Primary metals Iron and steel Nonferrous Industrial machinery and equipment. Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment 153.0 114.5 128.5 127.9 129.1 187.5 273.7 147.5 154.4 115.6 128.2 128.3 128.0 194.1 278.2 140.8 156.1 116.4 125.3 124.0 127.0 203.0 282.8 135.3 157.8 117.9 122.5 119.0 126.7 208.3 290.7 136.8 186.5 140.8 139.7 139.4 139.8 219.5 335.1 181.4 190.2 142.0 140.8 140.9 140.4 226.5 351.2 182.8 193.9 143.0 142.0 142.8 140.8 234.7 366.6 183.9 197.5 143.9 143.2 144.6 141.3 242.9 381.6 184.9 82.1 81.3 92.0 91.8 92.3 85.4 81.7 81.3 81.2 81.4 91.0 91.0 91.2 85.7 79.2 77.0 80.5 81.4 88.3 86.9 90.1 86.5 77.1 73.6 79.9 81.9 85.5 82.3 89.7 85.7 76.2 74.0 99.3 102.7 106.1 107.1 126.7 127.0 127.5 128.0 78.4 80.8 83.2 83.7 14 15 16 17 18 19 Nondurable goods Textile mill products . .. Paper and products Chemicals and products. Plastics materials Petroleum products 112.4 113.5 115.8 116.6 128.2 110.3 112.7 113.6 115.5 116.8 127.3 111.6 112.7 113.2 115.0 116.9 127.5 112.0 111.6 112.7 115.0 115.0 131.3 113.0 135.0 133.9 129.6 146.1 138.2 115.8 135.8 134.8 1306 147.1 139.4 116.2 136.6 134.9 131.6 148.0 140.7 116.5 137.5 135.1 132.5 148.9 141.9 116.8 83.3 84.7 89.3 79.8 92.8 95.2 83.1 84.3 88.5 79.4 91.3 96.1 82.5 83.9 87.4 79.0 90.6 96.1 81.1 83.5 86.8 77.2 91.7 96.8 105.9 114.2 115.1 107.0 110.9 112.8 105.3 115.6 118.3 104.0 119.5 121.6 119.4 125.8 123.5 119.7 125.9 123.5 119.9 126.2 123.8 120.1 126.5 124.0 88.6 90.8 93.2 89.4 88.1 91.3 87.8 91.6 95.6 86.6 94.5 98.0 Oct. May June July' Aug.' Sept. Oct.p 20 Mining .. 21 Utilities... 22 Electric . Previous cycle High Hjgh Low Latest cycle" High Low Capacity utilization rate (percent)2 1 Total industry 72.6 87.3 71.1 85.4 78.1 83.4 82.6r 81.5r 81.1 82.0 81.4 81.1 2 Manufacturing 70.5 86.9 69.0 85.7 76.6 82.3 81.6' 80.2' 79.8 80.9 80.1 80.1 91.2 87.2 68.2 71.8 88.1 86.7 66.2 70.4 88.9 84.2 77.7 76.1 85.2 81.3 84.3' 80.7' 83.3' 79.2' 83.4 78.5 83.3 80.1 82.4 79.4 82.1 79.4 88.7 100.2 105.8 90.8 68.9 61.2 65.9 66.6 59.8 87.7 87.9 94.2 95.8 91.1 63.9 60.8 45.1 37.0 60.1 84.6 93.6 92.7 95.2 89.3 73.1 75.5 73.7 71.8 74.2 82.0 80.9 92.0 92.3 91.9 81.1' 81.4' 89.1' 87.9' 90.6' 79.3' 81.5' 85.8' 83.5' 88.6' 78.6 81.8 85.9 83.5 88.9 81.0 82.3 87.2 85.2 89.7 80.0 81.6 83.6 78.1 90.4 80.1 81.9 82.8 76.7 90.4 96.0 89.2 93.4 74.3 64.7 51.3 93.2 89.4 95.0 64.0 71.6 45.5 85.4 84.0 89.1 72.3 75.0 55.9 85.7 81.9 80.1 86.3' 76.9' 78.3' 86.6' 76.8' 65.7' 87.0 76.8 58.3 85.4 76.2 83.4 84.8 75.5 80.2 84.0 75.4 81.3 78.4 67.6 81.9 66.6 87.3 79.2 78.1 83.4' 83.2' 83.8 84.0 83.2 84.7 87.8 91.4 97.1 87.6 102.0 96.7 71.7 60.0 69.2 69.7 50.6 81.1 87.5 91.2 96.1 84.6 90.9 90.0 76.4 72.3 80.6 69.9 63.4 66.8 87.3 90.4 93.5 86.2 97.0 88.5 80.7 77.7 85.0 79.3 74.8 85.1 83.1 84.8 89.0 79.8 91.7 96.0 82.7' 84.8' 87.4' 79.0' 90.5' 95.7' 81.8' 83.0' 87.1' 78.3' 89.7' 95.7' 81.7 83.9 87.7 77.9 91.6 97.2 81.1 83.5 87.0 77.0 92.9 97.6 80.6 83.0 85.6 76.8 90.7 95.5 80.4 83.0 84.9 76.8 90.8 92.4 94.3 96.2 99.0 88.2 82.9 82.7 96.0 89.1 88.2 80.3 75.9 78.9 88.0 92.6 95.0 87.0 83.4 87.1 89.0 92.3 95.0 87.9' 91.3' 96.0' 87.3' 94.0' 97.7' 87.2 93.7 96.7 86.6 94.3 97.7 86.0 95.6 99.7 84.6 92.0 95.5 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Primary processing3 Advanced processing4 Durable goods Lumber and products Primary metals Iron and steel Nonferrous Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment . Nondurable goods. Textile mill products " Paper and products Chemicals and products Plastics materials Petroleum products 20 Mining 21 Utilities 22 Electric 1. Data in this table appear in the Board's G.17 (419) monthly statistical release. The data are also available on the Board's web site, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/gl7. The latest historical revision of the industrial production index and the capacity utilization rates was released in November 1998. The recent annual revision is described in an article in the January 1999 issue of the Bulletin. For a description of the methods of estimating industrial production and capacity utilization, see "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Histoncal Revision and Recent Developments." Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92, and the references cited therein. For details about the construction of individual industrial production series, see "Industrial Production: 1989 Developments and Histoncal Revision," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 76 (April 1990), pp. 187-204. 2 Capacity utilization is calculated as the ratio of the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production to the corresponding index of capacity. 3. Primary processing includes textiles: lumber; paper; industrial chemicals; synthetic materials; fertilizer materials; petroleum products; rubber and plastics; stone, clay, and glass; primary metals; and fabricated metals. 4. Advanced processing includes foods; tobacco; apparel; furniture and fixtures; printing and publishing; chemical products such as drugs and toiletries; agricultural chemicals, leather and products; machinery; transportation equipment; instruments; and miscellaneous manufactures. 5. Monthly highs, 1978-80; monthly lows, 1982. 6. Monthly highs, 1988-89; monthly lows, 1990-91. A44 2.13 Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics • January 1999 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Indexes and Gross Value1 Monthly data seasonally adjusted Group 1992 proportion 1997' 1997 avg. Feb.' Mar.' Apr.' June' July' Aug.' Sept. 131.9 130.6 130.5 132.5 132.0 132.0 123.3 124.7 114.0 124.6 107.3 92.8 75.8 110.0 125.6 138.7 125.1 127.0 116.1 140.0 141.7 151.4 124.4 178.9 127.6 138.3 124.4 126.1 115.2 137.5 135.8 143.4 128.3 161.2 124.7 138.7 124.4 126.4 115.1 139.7 140.3 150.3 119.9 180.6 125.8 138.9 May' Index (1992 - 100) MAJOR MARKETS 1 Total index 100.0 2 Products 3 Final products 4 Consumer goods, total 5 Durable consumer goods 6 Automotive products 7 Autos and trucks 8 Autos, consumer 9 Trucks, consumer 10 Auto parts and allied goods 11 Other 12 Appliances, televisions, and air conditioners 13 Carpeting and furniture 14 Miscellaneous home goods 15 Nondurable consumer goods 16 Foods and tobacco 17 Clothing 18 Chemical products 39 Paper products 20 Energy 21 Fuels 22 Residential utilities 60.5 46.3 29.1 6.1 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 126.8 129.3 129.9 130.3 130.3 130.2 130.7 131.3 .9 3.5 119.6 121.1 114.1 129.6 129.1 135.7 114.9 157.1 118.5 130.1 121.5 123.1 114.9 131.0 132.0 141.1 114.4 166.6 118.0 130.1 122.2 124.1 115.9 135.1 138.4 149.1 119.4 177.3 122.1 132.4 122.3 124.0 115.4 133.3 134.5 144.1 113.1 173.5 119.8 132.3 122.6 124.5 116.0 135.1 133.0 141.0 115.1 166.1 120.5 136.7 122.5 124.2 115.2 134.5 131.5 138.6 104.8 170.5 120.3 136.9 123.2 125.3 115.8 135.9 132.7 138.9 106.5 169.8 122.7 138.5 124.0 126.2 116.4 136.9 134.6 141.3 107.4 173.8 123.7 138.8 124.5 126.6 116.8 138.3 136.8 143.5 108.4 177.1 126.0 139.4 123.6 125.5 115.1 130.7 121.7 118.2 93.8 142.2 125.4 137.8 1.0 .8 1.6 23.0 10.3 2.4 4.5 2.9 2.9 .8 2.1 176.1 112.8 114.2 110.2 108.2 101.1 119.5 108.0 111.6 109.3 112.3 181.3 113.0 112.2 110.8 107.8 101.1 121.3 108.2 115.6 111.5 117.1 186.5 116.8 112.4 111.2 109.2 100.0 120.9 110.8 112.0 107.4 113.9 187.4 112.6 114.1 110.9 108.4 100.6 121.8 109.5 112.5 110.2 113.2 195.5 119.2 115.6 111.3 110.4 100.7 121.3 109.2 109.1 111.0 107.6 197.9 115.8 116.8 110.5 1(0.1 99.3 121.2 107.7 106.5 110.4 104.0 203.8 114.3 118.3 110.8 109.1 100.4 121.3 106.3 113.2 111.2 113.7 203.4 115.9 118.2 111.4 110.2 99.9 123.2 106.2 111.5 111.6 111.0 202.7 119.1 117.9 111.5 110.8 98.8 122.5 105.7 112.5 110.9 112.9 199.9 117.0 117.1 111.2 108.5 98.8 122.8 105.3 118.2 111.4 121.2 207.8 117.3 115.9 111.2 108.5 98.4 122.2 106.3 118.4 112.9 120.7 209.2 116.1 115.3 110.3 107.8 97.2 119.1 106.6 119.4 112.1 122.7 206.1 117.1 116.5 109.8 107.1 96.1 119.0 106.3 118.8 109.3 123.2 208.3 118.4 115.4 109.2 107.6 94.6 118.9 106.3 114.0 105.0 118.1 Equipment Business equipment Information processing and related Computer and office equipment Industrial Transit Autos and trucks Other Defense and space equipment Oil and gas well drilling Manufactured homes 17.2 13.2 5.4 1.1 4.0 2.5 1.2 1.3 3.3 .6 133.9 148.7 181.6 415.8 136.1 116.7 124.0 136.0 76.2 149.3 141.4 137.9 154.4 190.3 465.0 138 6 123.7 127.7 139.7 75.8 150.6 139.8 138.6 155.4 191.8 474.3 138 0 127.0 133.4 138.8 75.7 151.6 141.5 139.4 156.5 194.5 496.8 139.8 125.6 127.4 138.7 75.8 149.6 142.3 139.5 156.3 195.3 520.3 138.4 126.0 126.2 137.7 76.2 153.9 147.1 140.3 157.0 199.2 547.4 136.6 126.8 120.9 136.9 76.3 157.4 149.6 142.4 160.1 202.3 584.9 139.4 130.3 121.6 139.8 75.9 155.7 148.0 143.6 162.2 206.0 601.5 139.4 133.6 123.4 140.8 75.9 147.6 148.0 144.2 163.1 209.2 620.6 138.1 135.5 125.1 139.6 76.0 147.1 149.0 144.1 163.6 210.3 638.6 142.9 128.2 108.6 141.7 75.8 136.7 146.1 143.9 163.5 211.8 654.6 144.2 121.9 91.7 146.6 76.1 131.9 151.1 146.5 167.3 214.0 674.2 142.8 142.5 136.9 132.6 76.5 127.7 145.7 145.8 166.8 215.6 696.5 139.6 139.5 131.0 141.0 75.7 123.4 145.0 146.6 167.7 217.6 715.8 139.2 141.7 129.6 140.7 76.7 119.4 146.0 Intermediate products, total Construction supplies Business supplies 14.2 5.3 115.2 122.4 111.0 116.5 122.3 113.0 116.3 123.6 112.0 117.0 124.2 112.6 117.0 125.5 112.0 117.1 125.7 112.1 116.9 124.7 112.2 117.3 125.4 112.5 118.2 126.6 113.3 118.0 126.1 113.2 119.1 128.5 113.6 119.1 128.5 113.6 118.9 127.5 113.7 118.4 127.9 112.8 39.5 20.8 4.0 7.6 9.2 3.1 8.9 1.1 1.8 3.9 2.1 9.7 6.3 3.3 138.2 165.0 143.1 238.5 127.2 121.9 113.4 111.2 115.9 114.4 110.0 103.7 101.4 108.0 141.9 171.9 146.1 256.6 129.6 124.0 114.4 112.8 117.7 116.1 108.4 104.2 101.6 109.2 142.4 173.2 147.0 259.2 130.5 125.8 115.5 112.4 116.8 116.9 113.0 102.2 99.7 107.1 143.4 174.1 150.0 261.1 130.0 123.5 116.1 113.5 117.9 117.6 112.3 103.8 101.1 109.1 142.6 173.6 143.1 263.4 130.7 126.1 114.8 109.9 117.2 117.2 110.0 103.0 101.6 105.8 142.5 173.5 144.2 264.5 129.7 125.9 114.9 111.1 117.0 116.5 111.4 102.8 101.4 105.6 142.7 173.7 143.7 265.8 129.7 123.7 114.2 110.6 116.3 115.6 111.0 103.7 101.0 109.0 143.1 174.5 144.4 266.9 130.3 123.5 114.4 110.5 116.3 116.2 110.9 103.8 101.3 108.6 143.6 175.4 147.9 268.6 129.6 123.0 114.1 111.0 115.5 115.6 111.2 104.3 101.0 110.8 141.8 171.7 131.9 271.0 128.3 120.1 113.9 110.2 117.3 114.8 110.6 104.8 101.8 110.7 141.9 171.8 129.7 274.1 128.1 120.2 114.1 110.1 117.3 114.6 111.7 104.8 102.9 108.6 144.5 177.5 149.6 277.3 128.6 122.4 113.7 109.7 116.4 114.3 111.8 104.4 101.3 110.4 144.5 177.0 147.5 279.0 128.0 118.4 113.0 109.3 114.9 113.6 111.5 105.9 102.4 112.5 144.4 178.0 149.2 281.2 128.2 117.6 112.7 109.5 113.8 113.4 111.4 103.7 100.1 110.7 97.1 95.1 126.6 126.1 129.2 128.6 129.6 129.0 130.2 129.5 130.2 129.7 130.2 129.7 130.7 130.3 131.3 130.9 131.8 131.3 131.2 131.2 131.6 131.7 132.2 131.5 131.9 131.2 131.8 131.1 98.2 27.4 26.2 123.8 112.9 114.4 126.0 113.4 114.8 126.6 114.2 116.4 126.9 113.8 115.7 126.7 114.7 116.8 126.4 113.9 116.2 126.7 114.5 116.1 127.3 115.1 117.0 127.7 115.3 117.3 126.4 114.8 114.7 126.2 114.9 113.5 128.1 114.3 115.8 127.5 113.7 114.8 127.4 113.3 115.3 Durable goods materials.... Durable consumer parts . . Equipment parts Other Basic metal materials .. Nondurable goods materials. Textile materials Paper materials Chemical materials Other Energy materials Primary energy Converted fuel materials. . 2.6 1.7 .9 .7 SPECIAL AGGREGATES 51 Total excluding autos and trucks 52 Total excluding motor vehicles and parts 53 Total excluding computer and office equipment 54 Consumer goods excluding autos and tmcks 55 Consumer goods excluding energy 56 Business equipment excluding autos and trucks 57 Business equipment excluding computer and office equipment 58 Materials excluding energy 12.0 12.1 29.8 134.4 149.0 157.5 157.9 159.9 159.7 161.1 164.6 166.7 167.4 170.0 171.8 170.7 170.8 138.5 153.7 139.2 155.1 139.7 155.8 138.8 155.0 138.7 155.0 140.8 154.9 142.3 155.5 142.6 156.0 142.7 153.4 142.2 153.6 145.4 157.1 144.4 156.6 144.9 157.1 Selected Measures A45 2.13 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1992 proportion SIC code Group Indexes and Gross Value1—Continued 1997r 1997 avg. Nov. Dec. Jan.' Feb.r Mar.r Apr.1 May' June1 July' Aug.' Sepl. Oc(. p Index (1992 = 100) MAJOR INDUSTRIES 59 Total index 126.8 129.3 129.9 130.3 130.3 130.2 130.7 131.3 131.9 130.6 130.5 132.5 132.0 132.0 85.4 26.5 58.9 129.7 119.1 134.7 132.2 120.3 138.1 133.3 121.1 139.3 133.7 121.5 139.7 133.8 121.6 139.8 133.7 121.1 140.0 134.1 121.0 140.6 134.9 121.5 141.6 135.4 121.4 142.3 133.7 120.2 140.4 133.6 120.7 139.9 135.9 120.8 143.5 135.3 119.8 143.0 135.7 119.7 143.8 24 25 45.0 2.0 1.4 147.1 114.2 117.7 151.8 113.5 118.6 153.3 114.8 119.7 154.0 115.0 120.4 153.9 115.2 119.4 154.0 116.2 118.6 155.2 115.3 121.5 156.2 116.1 121.0 157.2 116.4 120.6 154.8 116.7 122.0 154.4 117.5 120.8 160.0 118.5 119.7 159.1 117.7 121.6 160.2 118.4 122.9 32 33 331,2 331PT 333-6,9 34 2.1 3.1 1.7 .1 1.4 5.0 122.3 125.3 124.2 115.9 126.7 124.7 123.0 128.2 128.2 118.5 128.2 126.1 123.7 129.3 128.0 120.2 130.9 126.8 125.0 127.8 127.6 119.6 128.1 128.2 124.6 129.2 128.9 122.5 129.7 127.6 124.0 128.1 128.2 123.3 128.0 126.6 124.5 127.1 127.7 120.0 126.4 127.2 124.0 127.5 126.7 122 A 128.4 127.8 124.5 126.5 125.5 121.9 127.6 128.7 123.5 122.1 119.8 116.0 124.9 128.0 125.4 122.6 120.2 118.3 125.4 127.8 126.7 124.8 123.2 120.3 126.7 126.6 126.9 120.0 113.5 112.6 127.9 126.2 127.1 119.2 112.0 110.4 127.9 126.8 179.4 186.4 187.3 189.0 191.8 192.3 198.4 200.6 202.5 205.8 209.0 207.5 208.3 208.9 357 36 37 371 371PT 1.8 7.3 9.5 4.9 2.6 423.7 253.4 117.1 139.9 127.8 472.0 269.8 121.7 144.9 131.9 481.3 274.9 123.8 149.0 139.2 502.2 276.5 124.1 148.6 134.1 526.3 277.7 121.3 141.9 132.0 552.6 278.5 121.5 140.4 128.2 589.6 278.2 122.3 140.0 128.8 605.4 280.8 123.3 140.8 130.9 623.9 282.0 125.2 144.1 132.7 641.4 285.5 114.2 121.1 110.1 657.0 289.4 108.2 107.6 86.9 676.3 290.7 130.6 154.2 141.9 698.4 291.8 127.5 148.6 136.4 717.7 295.0 129.7 151.0 140.2 372-6,9 38 39 4.6 5.4 1.3 94.7 110.3 119.1 98.9 112.5 119.0 99.0 111.8 118.5 100.0 112.0 119.9 100.9 111.5 119.7 102.6 112.5 119.9 104.5 112.8 120.0 105.7 113.0 120.1 106.3 113.8 119.1 106.3 112.4 118.5 107.1 112.6 118.5 107.5 113.4 117.7 106.6 113.7 117.4 108.7 114.0 116.6 40.4 9.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.6 6.7 9.9 1.4 3.5 .3 111.3 108.0 110.9 112.2 102.8 114.4 105.2 114.9 109.8 128.2 81.9 112.0 107.5 112.0 113.1 102.7 115.0 106.4 116.3 III I 129.2 80.0 112.6 109.1 112.1 114.1 101.8 116.1 107.1 116.2 109.1 130.9 78.7 112.7 109.0 106.4 113.1 102.3 116.2 107.0 117.3 110.6 130.9 78.8 113.1 110.5 110.1 115.0 102.5 115.7 106.4 117.0 111.2 131.0 77.3 112.8 109.9 112.7 113.2 101.1 115.9 106.4 116.7 110.5 131.1 78.3 112.4 109.7 105.3 112.6 101.6 115.0 105.4 116.6 113.0 131.4 77.9 113.0 110.3 109.8 113.3 101.0 115.2 105.5 117.7 112.8 133.2 76.3 113.0 110.7 111.5 114.5 100.4 115.0 105.6 116.9 111.5 133.1 75.8 112.0 109.2 104.7 112.0 100.5 114.9 105.5 116.2 111.6 132.4 74.5 112.1 109.0 106.0 113.2 100.1 115.9 105.4 115.7 113.4 132.7 75.3 111.5 108.2 107.0 112.8 98.8 115.3 105.1 114.6 114.0 132.3 74.4 111.2 107.9 104.2 112.2 97.6 113.7 105.5 114.6 111.6 132.9 74.2 108.7 101.8 112.2 96.7 113.1 105.4 114.8 108.1 133.6 72.8 92 Mining 93 Metal 94 Coal 95 Oil and gas extraction 96 Stone and earth minerals . . . . 6.9 .5 1.0 4.8 .6 105.8 110.0 107.8 103.1 120.3 106.2 113.2 107.7 103.5 119.8 104.9 115.9 100.3 102.6 122.0 106.4 107.5 116.1 102.2 121.9 107.6 110.9 112.4 103.6 127.5 107.5 123.2 104.3 104.6 123.1 105.8 109.3 103.4 104.0 120.0 105.7 106.9 107.2 102.9 123.3 105.4 108.5 106.0 102.4 124.4 104.7 108.0 110.4 1O0.4 125.6 104.6 105.7 112.8 100.0 125.4 104.0 109.4 109.7 99.3 126.4 103.5 107.7 115.8 97.6 124.2 101.9 107.2 110.8 96.4 97 Utilities 98 Electric 99 Gas 7.7 6.2 1.6 112.8 113.2 111.2 116.1 117.4 110.2 113.6 114.1 111.0 113.1 113.8 109.9 109.8 111.4 102.2 109.0 111.2 99.3 114.0 115.7 106.3 112.8 115.2 102.0 115.2 118.9 98.3 118.7 121.0 108.4 118.3 119.8 111.7 119.3 121.2 110.5 120.9 123.7 108.2 116.6 118.5 107.6 80.5 129.1 131.5 132.4 132.8 133.4 133 4 133.8 134.6 134.9 134.5 135.1 134.9 134.5 134.9 83.6 126.3 128.4 129.4 129.7 129.6 1294 129.5 130.2 130.6 128.8 128.6 130.8 130.0 130.4 60 Manufacturing 61 Primary processing 62 Advanced processing 63 64 65 66 79 80 Durable goods Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel Raw steel Nonferrous Fabricated metal products. . Industrial machinery and equipment Computer and office equipment Electrical machinery Transportation equipment.. Motor vehicles and parts Autos and light trucks Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 Nondurable goods Foods Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing. . . . Chemicals and products . . . Petroleum products Rubber and plastic products Leather and products 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 35 491.493PT 492.493PT 124.7 SPECIAL AGGREGATES 100 Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts 101 Manufacturing excluding office and computing machines . . Gross value (billions of 1992 dollars, annual rates) MAJOR MARKETS 102 Products, total 2,001.9 2,406.1 2,440.1 2,456.3 2,455.0 2,462.9 2,456.2 2,474.5 2,489.8 2,498.5 2,470.3 2,454.6 2,525.7 2,504.0 2,504.2 103 Final 104 Consumer goods . . . 105 Equipment 106 Intermediate 1,552.1 1,049.6 502.5 449.9 1,886.0 1,914.7 1,931.2 1,927.4 1,935.8 1,928.6 1,198.0 1,208.8 1,218.8 1,212.7 1,220.1 1,210.8 687.3 708.3 714.8 717.3 718.2 720.6 528.2 528.0 528.3 521.1 525.9 526.0 I. Data in this table appear in the Board's G. 17 (419) monthly statistical release. The data are also available on the Board's web site, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/gl7. The latest historical revision of the industrial production index and the capacity utilization rates was released in November 1998. The recent annual revision is described in an article in the January 1999 issue of the Bulletin. For a description of the methods of estimating industrial production and capacity utilization, see "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1,948.1 1,961.6 1,966.1 1,938.2 1,915.6 1,218.7 1,224.8 1,225.2 1,201.8 1,185.0 734.3 732.5 739.9 744.2 740.1 538.4 527.6 529.7 533.6 532.6 1,987.4 1,226.6 764.9 539.6 1,967.8 1,212.5 759.5 537.3 1,971.2 1,212.2 763.5 534.4 Historical Revision and Recent Developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. and the references cited therein. For details about the construction of individual industrial production series, see "Industrial Production: 1989 Developments and Historical Revision," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 76 (April 1990), pp. 187-204. 2. Standard industrial classification. A46 2.14 Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics • January 1999 HOUSING AND CONSTRUCTION Monthly figures at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted 1998 1997 Item 1995 1996 1997 Jan. Dec. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Private residential real estate activity (thoi sands of units except as noted) NEW UNITS Permits authorized One-family Two-family or more Started One-family Two-family or more Under construction at end of period One-family Two-family or more Completed One-family Two-family or more Mobile homes shipped 1,333 997 335 1,354 1,076 278 776 554 222 1,319 1,073 247 341 1,426 1.070 356 1,477 1,161 316 820 584 235 1,405 1,123 283 361 1,442 1,056 387 1,474 1.134 340 834 570 264 1.407 1.122 285 354 1.467 1,094 373 1.540 1,130 410 872 580 292 1,413 1,094 319 353 1,553 1,142 411 1,545 1,225 320 888 593 295 1.314 1,007 307 362 1,635 1,176 459 1,616 1,263 353 907 609 298 1,461 1,142 319 377 1,569 1.136 433 1,585 1,239 346 911 616 295 1,486 1,130 356 374 1,517 1,145 372 1,546 1,237 309 911 619 292 1.509 1.198 311 370 1,543 1,152 391 1,538 1.224 314 917 627 290 1.458 1,112 346 374 1.517 1,128 389 1,620 1,269 351 930 639 291 1.484 1.166 318 362 1,581 1,173 408 1,704 1,300 404 937 643 294 1,549 1,225 324 380 1,618 1,180 438 1,621 1,261 360 942 647 295 1,514 1,172 342 368 1,544 1,164 380 1,579 1,248 331 949 650 299 1,470 1,183 287 369 Merchant builder activity in one-family units 14 Number sold 15 Number for sale at end of period1 667 374 757 326 803 287 805 282 853 281 878 281 836 285 892 286 892 287 919 287 873 285 830 286 822 292 13 V9 158.7 140.0 166.4 145.9 175.8 145.9 175.8 148.0 178.6 156.0 181.6 152.0 178.9 148.0 176.7 153.2 183.5 148.0 175.9 149.8 178.4 150.0 182.0 152.0 180.6 18 Number sold 3,812 4,087 4,215 4,370 4,370 4,770 4,890 4.770 4,830 4,740 4.910 4,730 4,680 Price of units sold (thousands vf dollars)1 19 Median 20 Average 113.1 139.1 118.2 145.5 124.1 154.2 125.9 157.5 126.1 156.8 124.5 153.9 127.1 157.2 128.2 159.7 130.5 162.3 134.0 169.2 133.8 168.4 132.9 165.9 131.3 163.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Price of units sold {thousands of dollars)2 16 Median 17 Average EXISTING UNITS (one-family) Value of new construction (millions of dollars)' CONSTRUCTION 21 Total put in place 538,158 581,813 618,051 626,290 633,714 638,180 639,913 645,974 635,396 650,341 657,710 657,834 660,643 22 Private 23 Residential 24 Nonresidential 25 Industrial buildings . . . 26 Commercial buildings. 27 Other buildings 28 Public utilities and other. 408,012 231,191 176,821 32,535 68.245 27.084 48,957 444,743 255,570 189,173 32,563 75,722 30,637 50.252 470,969 487.807 278,956 208.851 31.055 85.807 490,896 37,694 54,295 31.457 86.064 39,168 53.723 496,495 288,003 208,492 29,642 86,321 37,678 54,851 503,592 291.907 211.685 30.936 84,152 39,151 54.161 494,333 286,045 208,288 31,474 81981 37,812 55.021 500,078 289.666 52,906 478,363 273,020 205,343 29,794 83,214 39,275 53.060 510,650 299,196 211,454 28,588 87,999 37,436 57,431 511,655 299,471 212,184 31.020 85.590 37.470 58.104 511,730 302,725 209,005 28,092 84,815 38,079 58,019 29 Public 30 Military 31 Highway 32 Conservation and development 33 Other 130,147 2,983 38,126 6,371 82,667 137,070 2.639 41,326 5,926 87.179 147,082 2,625 45,246 5,628 93,583 147,927 2,342 45,306 6,422 93,857 145,907 2,474 46,067 5,281 92,085 147.284 2.916 45,561 6,305 92,502 145.580 2,818 45,559 5,488 145.896 2,850 46,175 4,985 91,886 138,901 2,471 42,030 5,146 89,254 146,749 2,659 44,541 5,989 93,560 147,060 3,309 43,776 5,445 146.180 2,912 44,757 5,370 148,913 2,513 94.530 93.141 93,996 265,536 205,433 31.417 83,727 37,382 1. Not al annual rates. 2. Nott seasonally aadjusted 3 Recent data on value of new construction may not be strictly comparable with data for previous periods because ecause of changes by the Bureau of the Census in its estimating techniques. techniques For a description of these changes, see Construction Reports (C-30-76-5), issued by the Census Bureau in July 1976. 282,496 208,400 91,715 210.412 30.067 88,480 37.334 55,804 46,364 6,040 SOURCE. Bureau of the Census estimates for all series except (1) mobile homes, which are private, domestic shipments as reported by (he Manufactured Housing Institute and seasonally adjusted by the Census Bureau, and (2) sales and prices of existing units, which are published by the National Association of Realtors. All back and current figures are available from the originating agency. Permit authorizations are those reported to the Census Bureau from 19,000 jurisdictions beginning in 1994. Selected Measures A47 2.15 CONSUMER AND PRODUCER PRICES Percentage changes based on seasonally adjusted data except as noted Change from 3 months earlier (annual rate) Change from 12 months earlier Item 1997 1997 Oct. 1998' level, Oct 1998' 1998 1998 Oct. Dec. CONSUMER PRICES Change from 1 month earlier Mar. June Sept. June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 2 (1982-84-100) 1 All items 2 Food 3 Energy items 4 AH items less food and energy 6 Services 2.1 1.5 1.5 .2 2.5 1.5 .1 .2 .2 .0 .2 164.0 1.8 .9 2.3 .5 3.0 2.4 -9.1 2.3 .8 3.0 1.5 -7.7 2.4 .6 3.3 1.3 -21.1 2.4 .8 3.0 3.0 -1.9 2.6 1.1 3.2 2.0 -8.7 2.3 1.1 3.0 .1 -.7 .1 .0 .2 .2 .0 .2 .1 .2 .2 -1.0 .2 .2 .3 .0 -1.3 -.1 .3 .6 .9 .2 .0 -> 162.0 101.3 174.7 143.8 192.3 -.3 -1.1 -1.9 .7 -.3 -.7 .3 -10.1 2.0 -.4 -1.2 1.5 -5.7 -.3 -2.0 -3.0 -1.8 -27.0 3.9 .0 .3 .9 -1.1 1.4 -1.2 .3 1.8 -10.2 3.3 .9 -.2 .1' -1.2' .0 -.1' .2 .4 -.3' .3 .1 -.4 -.4 -2.3 .0 -.3 .3 .4 -.1 .5 .4 .2 .4 1.2 .0 .0 131.4 135.5 74.8 148.9 138.0 _ 2 .4 -2.3 -1.1 -.6 .0 -4.4 -.9 -1.3 -1.2 -1.9 -1.5 -.3' -.1 -A' .0 -.2 -.1 -.3 -.2 -.3 122.7 132.7 -7.9 12.2 1.8 -6.1 -29.5 -13.7 4.1 5.4 -8.2 -14.3 -53.5 -13.6 -.7 -14.6 -5.6 -22.6 -15.2 -18.3 .6' -8.0' -.4' -3.4' 2.8' -1.7' -1.1 -5.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3 4.0 1.9 -2.7 103.4 65.4 133.7 PRODUCER PRICES (1982-100) 7 Finished goods 8 Consumer foods 9 Consumer energy 10 Other consumer goods Intermediate materials 12 Excluding foods and feeds 13 Excluding energy Crude materials 14 Foods 16 Other 1. Not seasonally adjusted. 2. Figures for consumer prices are for all urban consumers and reflect a rental-equivalence measure of homeownership. SOURCE. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. A48 2.16 Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics • January 1999 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND INCOME Billions of current dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1996 Q3 04 Ql Q2 Q3 8,254.5 8,384.2 8,440.6 8,526.5 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1 Total 7,269.6 7,661.6 8,110.9 By source Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services 4,953.9 611.0 1,473.6 2,869.2 5,215.7 5,493.7 673.0 1,600.6 3,220.1 5,540.3 681.2 1,611.3 3,247.9 5,593.2 682.2 1,613.2 3,297.8 5,676.5 705.1 1,633.1 3,338.2 5,773.7 720.1 1,655.2 3,398.4 5,843.0 715.5 1,539.2 3,033.2 6 Gross private domestic investment 7 Fixed investment 8 Nonresidential 9 Structures 10 Producers' durable equipment 11 Residential structures 1,043.2 1,012.5 727.7 201.3 526.4 284.8 1,131.9 1,099.8 787.9 216.9 571.0 311.8 1,256.0 1,188.6 860.7 240.2 620.5 327.9 1,265.7 1,211.1 882.3 243.8 638.5 328.8 1,292.0 1,220.1 882.8 246.4 636.4 337.4 1,366.6 1,271.1 921.3 245.0 676.3 349.8 1,345.0 1,305.8 941.9 245.4 696.6 363.8 1,361.8 1,303.0 931.1 241.7 689.4 372.0 30.7 40.1 32.1 24.5 67.4 63.1 54.6 47.3 71.9 66.9 95.5 90.5 39.2 31.5 58.7 51.7 -83.9 819.4 903.3 -91.2 873.8 965.0 -93.4 965.4 1,058.8 -94.7 981.7 1,076.4 -98.8 988.6 -123.7 1,087.4 973.3 1,097.1 -159.3 949.6 1,108.9 -168.7 935.7 1.104.4 17 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment. 18 Federal 19 State and local 1,356.4 509.1 847.3 1,405.2 518.4 1,454.6 520.2 934.4 1,459.5 521.0 938.5 1,468.1 520.1 947.9 1,464.9 511.6 953.3 1,481.2 520.7 960.4 1,490.5 518.7 971.8 By major type of product 20 Final sales, total 21 Goods 22 Durable 23 Nondurable 24 Services 25 Structures 7,238.9 2,644.9 1,143.4 1,501.5 3,974.9 619.1 7,629.5 2,780.3 1,228.8 1,551.6 4,179.5 669.7 8,043.5 2,911.2 1,310.1 1,601.0 4,414.1 718.3 8,116.2 2,944.3 1,337.1 1,607.2 4,448.0 723.9 8,182.6 2,948.7 1,334.3 1,614.4 4,501.2 732.7 8,288.7 3,005.8 1,376.9 1,628.8 4,538.4 744.6 8,401.3 3,025.3 1,380.8 1,644.4 4,619.5 756.6 8,467.8 3,024.3 1,365.9 1,658.4 4,678.9 764.6 30.7 32.4 -1.7 32.1 20.8 11.4 67.4 33.6 33.8 54.6 19.9 34.7 71.9 34.0 37.9 95.5 49.9 45.6 39.2 4.5 34.7 58.7 25.9 32.8 6,761.7 6,994.8 7,269.8 7,311.2 7,364.6 7,464.7 7,498.6 7,559.5 5,923.7 6,256.0 6,646.5 6,704.8 6,767.9 6,875.0 6,945.5 4,208.9 3,441.9 622.7 2,819.2 767.0 365.3 401.6 4,409.0 640.9 2,999.5 768.6 381.7 387.0 4,687.2 3,893.6 664.2 3,229.4 793.7 400.7 392.9 4,715.5 3,919.3 666.7 796.2 402.7 393.6 4,798.0 3,993.6 671.4 3,322.2 804.4 407.4 397.0 4,882.8 4,065.9 679.5 3,386.4 816.8 414.1 402.8 4,945.2 4,121.6 685.8 3,435.8 823.5 417.9 405.7 5,009.7 4,179.4 692.4 3,487.0 830.3 422.0 408.3 488.1 465.6 22.4 527.7 488.8 38.9 551.2 515.8 35.5 556.5 520.2 36.3 558.0 526.6 31.4 564.2 536.8 27.4 571.7 544.0 27.7 574.9 550.7 24.2 163.6 2 3 4 5 12 13 Change in business inventories Nonfarm 14 Net exports of goods and services 15 Exports 16 Imports 26 Change in business inventories 27 Durable goods 28 Nondurable goods 643.3 1,670.7 3,456.8 MEMO 29 Total GDP in chained 1992 dollars NATIONAL INCOME 30 Total 31 Compensation of employees 32 Wages and salaries 33 Government and government enterprises 34 Other 35 Supplement to wages and salaries 36 Employer contributions for social insurance 37 Other labor income 38 Proprietors' income1 39 Business and professional 40 Farm1 3,640.4 3,252.6 41 Rental income of persons2 133.7 150.2 158.2 158.6 158.8 158.3 161.0 42 Corporate profits1 43 Profits before tax3 44 Inventory valuation adjustment 45 Capital consumption adjustment 672.4 635.6 817.9 734.4 6.9 76.6 840.9 758.9 4.8 77.2 820.8 736.4 4.3 80.1 829.2 719.1 25.3 84.9 820.6 723.5 59.4 750.4 680.2 -1.2 71.4 420.6 418.6 432.0 433.3 432.4 440.5 447.1 46 Net interest 1. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2. With capital consumption adjustment. -22.6 7.8 89.4 3. For after-tax profits, dividends, and the like, see table 1.48. SOURCE. U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business. n.a. 96.8 Selected Measures 2.17 A49 PERSONAL INCOME AND SAVING Billions of current dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Q3 Q4 Ql Q2 Q3 PERSONAL INCOME AND SAVING 1 Total personal income 6,072.1 6,425.2 6,784.0 6,820.9 6,904.9 7,003.9 7,081.9 7,155.6 2 Wage and salary disbursements 3 Commodity-producing industries 4 Manufacturing , 5 Distributive industries 6 Service industries 7 Government and government enterprises 3,428.5 863.9 647.9 782.9 1,158.9 622.7 3.631.1 909.0 674.6 823.3 1,257.9 640.9 3,889.8 975.0 719.5 879.8 1,370.8 664.2 3,915.5 979.4 722.3 886.3 1.383.2 666.7 3,989.9 4,061.9 1,019.0 750.4 918.9 1,444.5 679.5 4,117.6 1,023.2 750.8 932.2 4,175.4 685.8 750.3 946.0 1,510.1 692.4 401.6 488.1 465.6 22.4 392.9 551.2 515.8 35.5 158.2 1,110.4 31.4 158.8 261.3 753.0 1,120.5 402.8 564.2 536.8 27.4 1,068.0 393.6 556.5 520.2 36.3 158.6 260.4 750.5 1,114.0 397.0 558.0 192.8 704.9 1,015.9 387.0 527.7 488.8 38.9 150.2 248.2 719.4 1,139.0 538.0 565.9 568.3 581.6 408.3 574.9 550.7 24.2 163.6 263.0 767.6 1,152.2 588.7 507.8 572.2 405.7 571.7 544.0 27.7 161.0 262.1 763.0 1,145.8 585.0 293.6 306.3 326.2 328.2 333.6 340.9 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Other labor income Proprietors' income Business and professional1 Farm' Rental income of persons2 Dividends Personal interest income Transfer payments Old-age survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits LESS: Personal contributions for social insurance 18 EQUALS: Personal income 19 LESS: Personal tax and nontax payments 20 EQUALS: Disposable personal income 21 LESS: Personal outlays 22 EQUALS: Personal saving 133.7 260.3 747.3 1,003.7 741.3 904.5 1,410.2 671.4 526.6 158.3 261.6 757.0 6,072.1 6,425.2 6,784.0 6,820.9 6,904.9 7,003.9 795.0 890.5 989.0 999.0 1,025.5 1,066.8 5,277.0 5,534.7 5,795.1 5,821.8 5,879.4 5,937.1 5,097.2 5,376.2 5,674.1 5,723.3 5,781.2 5,864.0 1,476.4 1.026.8 345.1 349.4 7.081.9 7,155.6 1.092.9 1,113.2 5,988.9 6,042.4 5,963.3 6,036.4 25.6 5.9 27,946.2 19,147.0 19,799.0 179.8 158.5 121.0 98.5 25,690.5 17,498.4 18,640.0 26.335.7 17,893.0 18.989.0 27.136.2 18.340.9 19.349.0 27,260.4 18,445.2 19,385.0 27,398.2 18,530.5 19,478.0 27,718.8 18,771.1 19,632.0 27.783.0 19.007.8 19,7190 1,187.4 1,274.5 1,406.3 1,427.0 1,428.0 1,482.5 1,448.5 n.a. 1,130.1 1,079.0 n.a. 73.0 MEMO Per capita (chained 1992 dollars) 23 Gross domestic product 24 Personal consumption expenditures 25 Disposable personal income 26 Saving rate (percent) GROSS SAVING 27 Gross saving 28 Gross private saving . . . 1.106.2 1,114.5 1,141.6 1,139.0 1,131.6 29 Personal saving 30 Undistributed corporate profits' 31 Corporate inventory valuation adjustment 179.8 256.1 -22.6 158.5 262.4 -1.2 1210 296.7 98.2 295.0 4.3 73.0 312.0 25.3 25.6 300.9 6.9 98.5 311.5 4.8 7.8 5.9 n.a. n.a. Capital consumption allowances 32 Corporate 33 Noncorporate 431.1 225.9 452.0 232.3 477 3 242.8 480.8 244.4 487.7 247.0 492.5 248.6 497.8 250.7 503.1 253.6 34 Gross government saving 35 Federal 36 Consumption of fixed capital 37 Current surplus or deficit ( - ) , national accounts 38 State and local 39 Consumption of fixed capital . 40 Current surplus or deficit ( - ) , national accounts 81.2 -103.7 70.7 -174.4 160.0 -39.6 288.0 70.0 70.3 -.3 184.8 73.2 111.7 -110.3 199.7 77.1 122.6 264.7 49.5 70.6 -21.1 215.2 81.1 134.1 218.0 81.4 136.6 296.4 72.3 70.2 2.2 224.1 82.7 141.4 352.4 128.7 69.9 58.8 223.7 83.5 140.2 369.4 143.9 69.5 74.4 225 6 84.3 141.3 41 Gross investment 1,160.9 U42.3 1,350.5 1,361.9 1360.7 1.428.4 1,362.7 42 Gross private domestic investment 43 Gross government investment 44 Net foreign investment 1,043.2 218.4 -100.6 1.131.9 229.7 -119.2 1,256.0 235.4 1,265.7 237 3 -141.0 1,292.0 1,366.6 237.4 -175.6 1,345.0 232.5 -214.8 45 Statistical discrepancy 1. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2. With capital consumption adjustment. 70.6 -32.2 -140.9 236.5 -167.8 -85.7 SOURCE. U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business. 69.6 n.a. n.a. 85.2 1,361.8 238.9 n.a. A50 3.10 International Statistics • January 1999 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Summary Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted except as noted1 hem credits or debits 1 Balance on current account 2 Merchandise trade balance2 3 Merchandise exports 4 Merchandise imports 5 Military transactions, net 6 Other service transactions, net 7 Investment income, net 8 U.S. government grants 9 U.S. government pensions and other transfers 10 Private remittances and other transfers 11 Change in U.S. government assets other than official reserve assets, net (increase, - ) -115,254 -173,729 575,845 -749,574 4,769 69,069 19,275 -11,170 -3,433 -20,035 -134,915 -191,337 611,983 -803,320 4,684 78,079 14,236 -15,023 -4.442 -21,112 Q2 Q3 Q4 Ql Q2P -155,215 -197,954 679,325 -877,279 6,781 80,967 -5,318 -12,090 -4,193 -23,408 -35,090 -49,096 169,240 -218,336 2,191 20,390 460 -2,274 -1,055 -5,706 -38,094 -49,296 172,302 -221,598 1,945 20,246 -1,544 -2,362 -1,056 -6,027 -45,043 -49,839 174,284 -224,123 1,103 20,277 -4,247 -5,213 -1,069 -6,055 -46,735 -55,698 171,469 -227,167 1,527 19,164 -2,248 -2,266 -1,126 -6,088 -56,525 -64,831 164,666 -229,497 1,036 19,842 -3,238 -2,060 -1,130 -6,144 -589 -708 174 -269 436 29 -9,742 0 -808 -2,466 -6,468 6.668 0 370 -1,280 7,578 -1,010 0 -350 -3,575 2,915 -236 0 -133 54 -157 -730 0 -139 -463 -128 -4,524 0 -150 -4,221 -153 -444 0 -182 -85 -177 -1,945 0 72 -1,031 -986 -317,122 -75,108 -45,286 -100,074 -96,654 -374,761 -91,555 -86,333 -115,801 -81,072 -477,666 -147,439 -120,403 -87,981 -121,843 -86,101 -26,625 -9,825 -23,263 -26,388 -123,023 -29,577 -24.791 -41,167 -27,488 -118,946 -27,539 -47,907 -8,030 -35,470 -44,816 3,074 -6,596 -6,973 -34,321 -95,049 -24,979 22 Change in foreign official assets in United States (increase, +) 23 U.S. Treasury securities 24 Other U.S. government obligations 25 Other U.S. government liabilities4 26 Other U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks' 27 Other foreign official assets' 109,768 68,977 3.735 -217 34,008 3,265 127,344 115,671 5.008 -362 5,704 1,323 15,817 -7,270 4,334 -2,521 21,928 -654 -5,411 -11,689 827 -523 5,043 931 21,258 6.686 2,667 -1,167 12,439 633 -26,979 -24,578 86 -244 -3,250 1,007 11,324 11,336 2,610 -1,059 -607 -956 -10,483 -20,317 254 -422 9,170 832 28 Change in foreign private assets in United States (increase, +) 29 U.S. bank-reported liabilities3 30 U.S. nonbank-reported liabilities 31 Foreign private purchases of U.S. Treasury securities, net 32 Foreign purchases of other U.S. securities, net 33 Foreign direct investments in United States, net 355,681 30,176 59,637 99,548 96,367 57,653 436,013 16,478 39.404 154,996 130,151 77,622 717,624 148,059 107,779 146,710 196,845 93,449 155,184 28,067 5,274 42,614 54,258 20,149 160,180 12,606 26,275 35,432 60,327 18,964 247,470 89,643 47,390 35,301 36,783 28,453 84,205 -50,497 32,707 -1,701 77,019 25,931 173,908 40,888 0 -22,742 0 -59,641 0 -99,724 -59,641 -99,724 0 -28,077 685 -28.762 0 -20,027 -10,018 -10,009 0 -52,007 3,528 -55,535 0 -3,146 6,217 -9,363 0 -9,410 1,562 -10,972 12 Change in U.S. official reserve assets (increase, —) 13 Gold 14 Special drawing rights (SDRs) 15 Reserve position in International Monetary Fund 16 Foreign currencies 17 Change in U.S. private assets abroad (increase, - ) 18 Bank-reported claims3 19 Nonbank-reported claims 20 U.S. purchases of foreign securities, nel 21 U.S. direct investments abroad, net .... 34 Allocation of special drawing rights 35 Discrepancy 36 Due to seasonal adjustment 37 Before seasonal adjustment MEMO Changes in official assets 38 U.S. official reserve assets (increase, - ) 39 Foreign official assets in United States, excluding line 25 (increase, +) 40 Change in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries official assets in United States (part of line 22) -23,446 -40,261 25,715 69.531 22,036 -9,742 6,668 -1.010 -236 -730 -4,524 -444 -1,945 109,985 127.706 18.338 -4,888 22,425 -26,735 12,383 -10,061 4,239 14,911 10.822 1.970 3.031 -1,282 -968 -350 1. Seasonal factors are not calculated for lines 12-16, 18-20, 22-34, and 38^10. 2. Data are on an international accounts basis. The data differ from the Census basis data, shown in table 3.11, for reasons of coverage and timing. Military exports are excluded from merchandise trade data and are included in line 5. 3. Reporting banks include all types of depository institutions as well as some brokers and dealers. -496 4. Associated primarily with military sales contracts and other transactions arranged with or through foreign official agencies. 5. Consists of investments in U.S. corporate stocks and in debt securities of private corporations and state and local governments. SOURCE. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business. Summary Statistics A51 U.S. FOREIGN TRADE 1 3.11 Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted 1998 Item 1995 1996 1997 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.p 3 Goods and services, balance 2 Merchandise 3 Services -101,857 -173.560 71,703 -111,040 -191,170 80,130 -113,684 -198,975 85,291 -13,497 -20,503 7.006 -14,148 -21,335 7.187 -15,777 -22,578 6.801 -13,639 -20,530 6,891 -14,547 -21,029 6,482 -15,899 -22,735 6,836 -14,031 -20,596 6,565 4 Goods and services, exports 5 Merchandise 794,610 575,871 218,739 848,833 612,069 236,764 931,370 678,150 253.220 79,058 57,217 21.841 77,515 55,335 22,180 76,399 54,719 21,680 76,375 54,767 21,608 75,101 53,825 21,276 75,426 53,862 21,564 77,125 55,873 21,252 7 Goods and services, imports -896,467 -749,431 -147.036 -959,873 -803,239 -156,634 -1.045,054 -877,125 -167,929 -92,555 -77,720 -14.835 -91,663 -76,670 -14,993 -92,176 -77,297 -14,879 -90,014 -75,297 -14,717 -89,648 -74,854 -14,794 -91,325 -76,597 -14,728 -91,156 -76,469 -14,687 9 Services 1. Data show monthly values consistent with quarterly figures in the U.S. balance of payments accounts. 3.12 SOURCE. FT900, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. RESERVE ASSETS Millions of dollars, end of period 1998 Asset 1 Total 2 Gold stock, including Exchange Stabilization Fund1 3 Special drawing rights2'3 4 Reserve position in International Monetary Fund 5 Foreign currencies4 1995 1996 1997 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.p Oct.p 85,832 75,090 69,954 69,354 70,328 70,723 71,161 72,264 73,544 75,66 79,186 11,050 11.037 11,049 10.312 11,050 10,027 11,050 10,108 11,048 10.188 11,049 10,296 11,047 10,001 11,046 9,586 11,046 9,891 11,044 10.106 11,044 10.379 14,649 49.096 15,435 38,294 18,071 30.809 17,976 30,220 18,218 30.874 18,957 30,421 18,945 31,168 20,780 30,852 21,161 31,446 21,644 32,882 22,278 35.485 1. Gold held "under earmark" at Federal Reserve Banks for foreign and international accounts is not included in the gold stock of the United States; see table 3.13, line 3. Gold stock is valued at $42.22 per fine troy ounce. 2. Special drawing rights (SDRs) are valued according to a technique adopted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 1974. Values are based on a weighted average of exchange rates for the currencies of member countries. From July 1974 through December 1980, sixteen currencies were used; since January 1981, five currencies have been used. U.S. 3.13 SDR holdings and reserve positions in the IMF also have been valued on this basis since July 1974. 3. Includes allocations of SDRs by the International Monetary Fund on Jan. 1 of the year indicated, as follows: 1970—$867 million; 1971—$717 million; 1972—$710 million; 1979— $1,139 million; 1980—$1,152 million; 1981—$1,093 million; plus net transactions in SDRs. 4. Valued at current market exchange rates. FOREIGN OFFICIAL ASSETS HELD AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS1 Millions of dollars, end of period 1998 Asset 1995 1996 1997 Mar. 1 Deposits Held in custody 2 U.S. Treasury securities2 3 Earmarked gold" May June July Aug. Sept.p Oct.p 386 167 457 167 162 156 200 161 161 347 154 522,170 11,702 638.049 11,197 620,885 10,763 630,602 10,664 622,220 10,651 622,557 10,641 616,569 10,617 613,893 10,586 588,337 10,510 578,403 10,457 588,768 10,403 1. Excludes deposits and U.S. Treasury securities held for international and regional organizations. 2. Marketable U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds and nonmarketable U.S. Treasury securities, in each case measured at face (not market) value. Apr. 3. Held in foreign and international accounts and valued at $42.22 per fine troy ounce; not included in the gold stock of the United States. A52 3.15 International Statistics • January 1999 SELECTED U.S. LIABILITIES TO FOREIGN OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS Millions of dollars, end of period 1998 Item 1 Total1 By type 2 Liabilities reported by banks in the United States 1996 1997 Mar. Apr. May June' July' Aug. Sept.tp 758,624 778,538 790,921 788,310 786,184 781,069 775,137 760,814 735,112 113,098 198,921 135,326 148,301 134,719 153,335 144,929 138,418 142,658 137,652 144,099 134,324 142,140 131,089 144,070 130,398 131,492 128,146 379,497 5,968 61,140 423,456 5,994 65,461 429,642 6,110 67,115 430,804 6,149 68,010 431,702 6,189 67,983 428,216 6,229 68,201 428,685 6,269 66,954 411,765 6,311 68,270 401,461 6,350 67,663 257,915 21,295 80,623 385,484 7,379 5,926 263,103 18.749 97.616 382,423 10,118 6,527 259,053 20,280 98,028 397.283 11.440 4,835 268,848 20,254 101,191 382,027 11,281 4,707 269,178 20,122 101,792 379,188 10,574 5,328 264,657 19,396 100,849 378,113 11,555 6,497 270.195 19.963 100,826 367.687 11.904 4,560 266,625 16,387 98,405 363,902 11,501 3,992 258,234 16,170 79,779 365,681 11,721 3,525 U.S. Treasury bonds and notes 6 U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasury securities 7 8 9 10 11 12 By area Europe1 Canada Latin America and Caribbean Asia Africa Other countries 1. Includes the Bank for International Settlements. 2. Principally demand deposits, time deposits, bankers acceptances, commercial paper, negotiable time certificates of deposit, and borrowings under repurchase agreements. 3. Includes nonmarketable certificates of indebtedness and Treasury bills issued to official institutions of foreign countries. 4. Excludes notes issued to foreign official nonreserve agencies. Includes current value of zero-coupon Treasury bond issues to foreign governments as follows: Mexico, beginning March 1988, 20-year maturity issue and beginning March 1990, 30-year maturity issue; 3.16 LIABILITIES TO, AND CLAIMS ON, FOREIGNERS Payable in Foreign Currencies Millions of dollars, end of period Venezuela, beginning December 1990, 30-year maturity issue; Argentina, beginning April 1993, 30-year maturity issue. 5. Debt securities of U.S. government corporations and federally sponsored agencies, and U.S. corporate stocks and bonds. SOURCE. Based on U.S. Department of the Treasury data and on data reported to the department by banks (including Federal Reserve Banks) and securities dealers in the United States, and on the 1989 benchmark survey of foreign portfolio investment in the United States. Reported by Banks in the United States1 1998 1997 Item 3 Deposits 5 Claims of banks' domestic customers2 1994 89,258 60,711 19,661 41,050 10,878 I. Data on claims exclude foreign currencies held by U.S. monetary authorities. 1995 109,713 74,016 22,696 51,320 6,145 1996 103,383 66,018 22,467 43,551 10,978 Sept. Dec. Mar. June 120,105 91,158 32,154 59,004 10,090 117,524 83,038 28,661 54,377 8,191 100,342 81,977 27,934 54,043 7,926 90,119 68,095 27,213 40,882 7,354 2. Assets owned by customers of the reporting bank located in the United States that represent claims on foreigners held by reporting banks for the accounts of the domestic customers. Bank-Reported Data 3.17 LIABILITIES TO FOREIGNERS Payable in U.S. dollars A53 Reported by Banks in the United States' Millions of dollars, end of period 1995 1996 Mar. Apr. May 1,283,686 1,255,075 1,270,626 1,160,273 861,727 32,107 185,948 204,294 439.378 July Aug. Sept.' 1,288,032' 1,306,488' 1,341,622 1,348,596 852,052 31,201 185,160 192.167 443.524 884,734' 36,246 186,686' 183,451 478,351 896,972' 30,928 188,056' 192,536 485,452 928,137 33,038 183,506 190,542 521,051 915,312 33,556 170,738 168,609 542,409 By HOLDER AND TYPE OF LIABILITY 1 Total, all foreigners 1,099,549 2 Banks' own liabilities 3 Demand deposits 4 Time deposits2 5 Other3 6 Own foreign offices4 7 Banks' custodial liabilities5 8 U.S. Treasury bills and certificates6 9 Other negotiable and readily transferable instruments7 10 Other 11 Nonmonetary international and regional organization: 12 Banks' own liabilities 13 Demand deposits 14 Time deposits 15 Other3 16 17 18 19 Banks' custodial liabilities5 U.S. Treasury bills and certificates6 Other negotiable and readily transferable instruments7 Other 20 Official institutions9 21 Banks' own liabilities 22 Demand deposits 23 Time deposits2 24 Other' 25 26 27 28 Banks' custodial liabilities5 U.S. Treasury bills and certificates6 Other negotiable and readily transferable instruments7 Other 29 Banks10 30 Banks' own liabilities 31 Unaffiliated foreign banks 32 Demand deposits 33 Time deposits2 34 Other3 35 Own foreign offices4 36 37 38 39 Banks' custodial liabilities5 U.S. Treasury bills and certificates6 Other negotiable and readily transferable instruments7 Other 40 Other foreigners 41 Banks' own liabilities 42 Demand deposits 43 Time deposits 44 Other3 45 46 47 48 5 Banks' custodial liabilities U.S. Treasury bills and certificates6 Other negotiable and readily transferable instruments7 Other MEMO 49 Negotiable time certificates of deposit in custody for foreigners 1,162,148 753,461 24,448 192,558 140,165 396,290 758,998 27.034 186,910 143,510 401.544 883,639 32.104 198.470 168.013 485,052 843,906 32,588 183,109 188,425 439,784 346,088 197,355 403,150 236,874 400,047 193.239 411,169 191,571 408,899 174,256 408,221 173,873 403.298' 169,225 409,516' 164,274 413,485 162,235 433,284 160,598 52,200 96,533 72,011 94,265 93.641 113,167 96,364 123,234 111,398 123,245 107,797 126,551 112,598' 121,475 117.433' 127.809 123.378 127.872 142,169 130.517 11,039 10.347 21 4,656 5,670 13,972 13,355 29 5,784 7,542 11,690 11,486 16 5,466 6,004 15,246 14,925 98 5,957 8,870 14,894 14,478 365 6,646 7,467 14,186 13,559 229 7,029 6,301 14,103' 13,441 226 6,784 6,431 14.314' 12,188' 19 6,354' 5,815 15,188 13,684 59 6,252 7,373 15,199 13,846 408 5,760 7,678 692 350 617 352 204 69 321 247 416 344 627 359 662' 338 2,126' 349 1,504 490 1,353 435 1 265 0 133 2 72 2 72 0 268 0 322' 2 1,777' 0 1,012 2 818 100 275,928 83,447 2,098 30,717 50.632 312.019 79,406 1,511 33,336 44,559 283.627 101.910 2.314 41,420 58,176 288,054 104,006 2,051 40.265 61,690 283,347 105,731 2,532 38,865 64,334 280,310 104,358 2,052 36,060 66,246 278,423' 102,256 2,582 36,068 63,606 273,229' 102,040 3,560 36,358 62,122 274,468 101,558 3.456 35,603 62,499 259,638 85,251 3,607 28.067 53.577 192,481 168,534 232.613 198,921 181,717 148,301 184,048 153,335 177,616 138,418 175,952 137,652 176,167' 134,324 171,189' 131,089 172,910 130,398 174,387 128,146 23,603 344 33,266 426 33,211 205 30,183 530 38,745 453 38.010 290 41,180' 663 39,792' 308 41,759 753 45.684 557 691,412 567,834 171,544 11,758 103,471 56,315 396,290 694,835 562.898 161,354 13,692 89.765 57,897 401,544 816,064 642,324 157,272 17.527 83,433 56.312 485,052 763,349 585,083 145,299 18,350 70,060 56.889 439,784 776,269 596,509 157,131 17,152 72,703 67,276 439,378 782,828 601,967 158,443 16,111 74,018 68,314 443,524 809,251' 633.032 154.681 20,772 75,231 58,678 478.351 825,245' 643,982 158,530 15,097 78,252 65,181 485,452 853,292 673,157 152,106 16,063 74.151 61,892 521,051 874,621 685,982 143,573 15,799 67,644 60,130 542,409 123,578 15,872 131,937 23,106 173,740 31,915 178,266 28.499 179,760 26.650 180,861 26,920 176,219' 25,337 181,263' 22,929 180,135 20,696 188,639 21,563 13,035 94,671 17,027 91,804 35,333 106.492 34,962 114.805 37,942 115,168 38,186 115.755 38,122' 112,760 39,203' 119.131 40,180 119,259 44,807 122,269 121.170 91,833 10,571 53,714 27,548 141,322 103,339 11,802 58,025 33,512 172,305 127,919 12,247 68,151 47,521 188.426 139,892 12,089 66,827 60,976 196,116 145,009 12,058 67,734 65,217 182.949 132,168 12,809 68,053 51,306 186,255' 136,005' 12,666 68,603' 54,736 193.700' 138,762 12,252 67,092 59,418 198,674 139,738 13.460 67.500 58,778 199,138 130,233 13,742 29,337 12,599 37,983 14.495 44,386 12,954 48,534 9.490 51,107 8.844 50.781 8.942 50,250 9,226 54,938' 9.907 58,936 10.651 68,905 10.454 15,221 1.517 21,453 2,035 24,964 6,468 31,147 7,897 34,639 7,624 31,333 10,506 32,974 8,050 36,661' 8,370 40,427 7,858 50,860 7,591 9,103 14,573 16,083 22,416 22,503 23.440 21,229 22,847 25,867 27,391 1. Reporting banks include all types of depository institutions as well as some brokers and dealers. Excludes bonds and notes of maturities longer than one year. 2. Excludes negotiable time certificates of deposit, which are included in "Other negotiable and readily transferable instruments." 3. Includes borrowing under repurchase agreements. 4. For US banks, includes amounts owed to own foreign branches and foreign subsidiaries consolidated in quarterly Consolidated Reports of Condition filed with bank regulatory agencies. For agencies, branches, and majority-owned subsidiaries of foreign banks, consists principally of amounts owed to the head office or parent foreign bank, and to foreign branches, agencies, or wholly owned subsidiaries of the head office or parent foreign bank. 5. Financial claims on residents of the United States, other than long-term securities, held by or through reporting banks for foreign customers. 69,267 47,224 6. Includes nonmarketable certificates of indebtedness and Treasury bills issued to official institutions of foreign countries. 7. Principally bankers acceptances, commercial paper, and negotiable time certificates of deposit. 8. Principally the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. Excludes "holdings of dollars" of the International Monetary Fund. 9. Foreign central banks, foreign central governments, and the Bank for International Settlements. 10. Excludes central banks, which are included in "Official institutions." A54 3.17 International Statistics • January 1999 LIABILITIES TO FOREIGNERS Reported by Banks in the United States'—Continued Mar Apr May June July Aug. Sept 50 Total, all foreigners 1,099,549 1,162,148 1,283,686 1,255,075 1,270,626 1,260,273 1,288,032' 1,306.488' 1,341,622' 1,348,596 51 Foreign countries 1.088,510 1,148,176 1,271,996 1,239,829 1.255.7J2 1,246,087 1,273,929' 1,292.174' 1,326,434' 362.819 3,537 24,792 2,921 2.831 19.218 420,438 2,717 41,007 1,514 2,246 10.868 13.745 1.394 2,761 7,948 10,011 3.246 43.625 4.124 139.183 176.590 5.128 24,084 2,565 1,958 35,078 24.660 1,835 10,946 11,110 1,288 3.562 7.623 17,707 1.623 44 538 6.738 153.420 177 206 26,389 22,521 390,750 2,375 33,244 1.094 1.549 44.027 20,971 2.020 9.631 8,208 346 1.426 6.466 16.315 1.967 35.463 4,154 174.198 236 27.060 406,391 2.957 38,530 2,588 1,768 48,468 24,895 2,383 10,600 8,051 514 2.279 5.381 18.071 1.785 32.341 4.340 172.829 246 28,365 52 Europe 53 Austria 54 Belgium and Luxembourg 55 Denmark 56 Finland 57 France 58 Germany 59 Greece 60 Italy 61 Netherlands 62 Norway 63 Portugal 64 Russia 65 Spain 66 Sweden 67 Switzerland 68 Turkey 69 United Kingdom 70 Yugoslavia" 71 Other Europe and other former U.S.S.R.12 72 Canada 24,035 2.014 46.607 2.1.737 1.552 11.378 7.185 317 2.262 7,968 18,989 1,628 39,172 4,054 181.904 239 25,762 405.348 3,012 35,518 1,443 1,365 47,869 26,452 2,610 11,127 7,265 774 2,160 1952 15,520 2,197 33,893 4,467 178,185 270 27,269 402,103' 2,268 35.454 1.989 1.438 46.162 25.470 2,429 11,509 6,845 607 2,334 4.654 11,649 1,148 39,071' 4,894' 176,703 234 25.245r 431.783' 2,602 31,845 2.013 1,211 47,140 23.730 2,784 11,114 7,097 1,179 2.823 6,398 12.079 2.198 44,861 5,077' 196.859 322 28,451' 457,487' 2,671 35,086 2,128 1,350 48,328 28,751 2,941 10,625 9.239 1,469 2,424 2,718 14,283 1.769 39,362 4,317' 219.147 242 30.637' 1.333,397 450,599 3,137 33.936 1.578 1.181 50,354 25.810 2,544 9.1R4 8,066 688 2.292 3.085 20,487 3,285 48,613 4,264 204,843 25.3 26.999 30.468 38.920 28,341 27,121 27.398 26,021 28,864 29.526 27,844 28.566 73 Latin America and Caribbean . . . 74 Argentina 75 Bahamas 76 Bermuda 77 Brazil 78 British West Indies 79 Chile 80 Colombia 81 Cuba 82 Ecuador 83 Guatemala 84 Jamaica 85 Mexico 86 Netherlands Antilles 87 Panama 88 Peru 89 Uruguay 90 Venezuela 91 Other 440,213 467,529 13,877 88,895 5.527 27.701 251.465 8,670 529,446 18.S35 109,041 8,273 34.017 261.542 3,975 4,200 55 1.814 1,438 431 35.708 11,351 3,958 878 2,228 21,474 10.228 552,896 17,766 112,510 6,657 36,777 273.565 4.330 4.212 57 1.737 1.478 449 37,623 17.569 4.211 878 2,097 20,696 10,284 550,714 16,938 114,222 7,142 38,463 277,929 4,230 4 183 59 1,783 1.353 438 37.682 7.447 4.106 964 1,991 21,600 9.984 568,228' 18.502' 116.435 7,769 35.345' 295,321 4,356' 4,805 63 1,616' 1,363 522 38.044 6,861 3.723 925 1,982 20.442 10.154 564,388' 21,010' 115,309 7,216 34.292' 290,.142r 4.987' 4,023 63 1,772' 1,273 519 38,554 8.922 3,596 984 2,097 19.492 9,937 557,071' 21,655' 113,543 7,332 27.824 291.470' 4.726' 4.102' 62 1,608' 1.237' 550 38,087 8.340 3,675' 900 2,091 20,125' 9,744' 560,067 18,384 122,806 7.531 536.365 20.199 112.217 6.911 31.037 276.389 4 072 3.652 66 2,078 1,494 450 33,972 5.085 4,241 893 2.382 21,601 9,626 92 Asia 240.595 249,083 269,299 275,173 251,423 244.779 254,412' 247,952' 266,485' 275.623 33.750 11.714 20.197 3.373 2.708 4.041 109,193 5,749 3,092 12,279 15,582 18.917 30,438 15,995 18.789 3,930 2,298 6,051 117.316 5.949 ' 178 10.912 16.285 17.742 18,252 11,760 17,722 4,567 3,554 6.281 143,401 1.1,060 3.250 6,501 14.059 25,992 20,701 1.1,619 17,825 5,586 4,015 7.589 137,700 11,233 3,009 9,073 16,217 28.606 20.122 13,776 19.762 4,813 4,266 7,348 113.283 13,711 2,870 7,928 17.095 26,449 20,209 12,648 18,106 4,882 3,197 6.251 111,621 14.010 2,802 8.876 15.296 26.879 21.558 11,619 19,720 4.821 3.848 6,095 118,669 13.269 3,418 7.148 13,829' 30.418 18,919 11,333 15,826 4,678 3,938 5,969 123.167 12.713 2,609 6,780 13,902' 28,118 18,506 11,290 18.349 6,437 5.651' 5.296 131.376 12.498 2,777 7.869 14,532' 31,904 18,523 12,080 16.627 5.144 5,470 5,984 142,757 12.986 2,712 6.664 16,575 30.101 105 Africa 106 Egypt 107 Morocco 108 South Africa 109 Zaire 110 Oil-exporting countriesIJ 111 Other 7.641 8,116 2.012 10,347 1,663 138 2,158 10 3,060 3,318 11.385 1,449 88 2.547 10 4.275 3.016 11.160 1.236 131 2.556 1 4.3.12 2.902 10.965 1,460 115 2,465 5 4,079 2.841 10.735' 1,523 84 2.642 5 3.552 2,929' 10,788' 1.319 74 2,446 7 3 893 3.049' 10,562' 1,459 76 2.428 35 .1.684 2.880' 11.098 1.616 88 2,658 6 112 Other 113 Australia . . 114 Other . . . . 6.774 5,647 1.127 7.938 6.479 1.459 7.206 6.304 902 5.954 4,989 965 6,464 5.450 1,014 8,260 7,416 844 9,587 8,510 1,077 7.737 6.490 1.247 6.985 5,931 1.054 7.444 6.427 1,017 13.972 11,690 10,517 424 749 15,246 14,331 536 .179 14.894 13.431 762 701 14.186 12,509 830 847 14,103' 12,548 694' 861 14,314' 11,220' 750' 2,344 15,188' 12,825' 721' 15.199 12.769 800 1.630 . 12,235 94,991 4,897 21.797 239.083 2.826 3,659 8 1,314 1.276 481 24.560 4,673 4,264 974 1,836 11,808 2.915 3,256 21 1,767 1.282 628 31.240 6.099 4,099 834 1,890 17,363 7.920 18.496 298.530 5,725 4,463 62 1,540 1,241 541 35,681 S.588 3,826 843 2,277 19,303 9,841 China 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 Mainland Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Israel Japan Korea (South) Philippines Thailand q Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries'3 Other 115 Nonmonetary international and regional organizations 116 International15 117 Latin American regional16 118 Other regional17 2,136 104 739 10 1.797 2.855 11,039 9,300 893 846 458 10 2.626 12,099 1,339 534 11. Since December 1992, has excluded Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia. 12. Includes the Bank for International Seillements. Since December 1992. Im included all parts of the former U.S.S.R. (except Russia), and Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia. 13. Comprises Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Truciat States). 14. Comprises Algeria, Gabon. Libya, and Nigeria. 1,642 1,727 3.003 15. Principally the International Bank lor Reconstruction and Development. Excludes "holdings of dollars" of the International Monetary Fund. 16. Principally the Inter-American Development Bank. 17. Asian. African, Middle Eastern, and European regional organizations, except the Bank for International Settlements, which is included in "Other Europe." Bank-Reported Data 3.18 A55 BANKS' OWN CLAIMS ON FOREIGNERS Reported by Banks in the United States' Payable in U.S. Dollars Millions of dollars, end of period 1998 Area or country 1995 Mar. Apr. May July Aug. Sept.p 1 Total, all foreigners 532,444 599,925 708,272 687,648 700,035 703,532 727,942r 740,236r 764.022 754,467 2 Foreign countries 530,513 597,321 705,809 684,700 696,742 701,140 725,027' 735,826' 759,632 749,125 132,150 165,769 1,662 199,880 1,354 6,641 208,567 2.130 6.115 1.286 931 16,276 15,301 428 6,533 3.980 736 1.496 1.117 6,218 3,181 29,317 2,386 102,889 19 8.228 223,277' 1,259 7,782 1,198 1,146 15,474 15,751 364 6 435 5,763 680 17.314 12,029 16,783 1.057 5.560 3,069 34,970 2,414 109,755' 53 9.659 229,928 1,892 8,459 933 1,032 14,421 11,327 450 6,345 5,642 553 1,156 1,345 6.424 4,553 49,359 2,010 104.197 79 9.551 231,839 1,849 8,190 1,059 1,073 4,355 207,154 1,827 5.482 968 1,018 17,383 16,931 442 6,938 5.851 662 935 1,133 7,458 2,975 25,069 2.324 101,772 59 7.927 226.823 1.856 6.779 1.374 1.161 6,457 7,117 808 418 1.669 3,211 1,739 19,798 1,109 85,234 115 3,956 1,233 16,239 12,676 402 6,230 6,141 555 777 1,248 2,942 1,854 28,846 1,558 103,143 52 7,009 205,528 1,566 6.148 895 1,686 18,206 13.047 503 6,601 6,618 850 589 1,115 5,778 2,798 31,306 1,914 97,588 61 8,259 20,874 26,436 27,176 29,827 25,785 24,961 32.703 36.007 41,402 41.127 256,944 6,439 58,818 5,741 13,297 124,037 274,153 7,400 71,871 4,129 17,259 105,510 5,136 6,247 0 1,031 338,909 8,726 77,585 8,997 25,283 147.910 8,171 6,783 0 1,476 904 364 20.680 17,618 4,108 3,538 920 2,169 3,677 354,302 8,540 82,711 9,462 26,033 159,649 8,444 6,772 0 1,522 955 373 20.913 14,073 4,422 3,644 773 2,194 3.822 361,082 8,207 78.083 8.890 25.354 168,124 8,482 7,208 0 1,498 955 385 21,2)5 17,352 4,393 3,792 807 2,381 3.956 365,814' 8,518 77,595 9.452 24,552 176.825 8,497 7,102 0 1,430 932 320 20,371' 14.294 4,233 3,965 959 2,495 4,274 359,277' 8.421 78,770 10,622 24,187 166,203 8,434 6,914 0 1.649 911 335 20.062' 16.278 4,308 4,009 1,154 2,436 4,584 379,383 8,724 77,875 9.629 23.530 192.334 8,307 362,826 8,777 75,925 6,905 0 1,518 6,816 4,354 4.435 102,391 104,211 2.701 661 1,363 1,031 10,547 1,824 3 Europe 4 Austria 5 Belgium and Luxembourg 6 Denmark 7 Finland 8 France 9 Germany 10 Greece 11 Italy 12 Netherlands 13 Norway 14 Portugal 15 Russia 16 Spain 17 18 19 20 21 22 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Yugoslavia: Other Europe and other former U.S.S.R.3 .. . 23 Canada 24 Latin America and Caribbean 25 Argentina 26 Bahamas 27 Bermuda 28 Brazil 29 British West Indies 30 Chile 31 Colombia 32 Cuba 33 Ecuador 34 Guatemala 35 Jamaica 565 7,624 403 1,055 15,0.13 9,263 469 5.370 5,346 665 888 660 2,166 2,080 7,474 803 67,784 147 6,727 492 971 15,246 8,472 568 36 Mexico 37 38 39 40 41 Netherlands Antilles Panama Peru Uruguay Venezuela 9,229 3,008 1,829 1,661 1,702 42 Other 3,376 3,174 343.820 8,924 89.379 8,782 21,696 145,471 7,913 6,945 0 1,311 886 424 19.518 17,838 4,364 3,491 629 2.129 4.120 115,336 122.478 125.063 101.353 99,183 96,813 94,804 100,196 1,023 1,713 12.821 1,401 1,894 12,802 1,946 1,762 633 59,967 18,901 1,697 2,679 10,424 8,372 1,579 921 13,990 2.200 2,634 768 59,540 18,162 1,689 2,259 10,790 10.531 2,762 740 12,628 1,927 2,291 812 46.660 11.520 1,813 2,144 8,921 9,135 2,921 939 10,162 1,807 2.210 874 44,970 10,852 1,561 1,971 11,028 9,888 2,934 723 12,884 1,913 2.099 893 42,071 11,936 1,614 1,906 9,338 8,502 1.989 835 12,871 1,972 2,098 954 43,010 11.001 1,541 1,889 8,448 8,196 1,679 595 11,045 1,822 2,010 1,116 45,566 12,863 1.243 1,820 2,776 247 524 584 0 420 1.001 3,530 247 511 805 0 1.212 755 3,567 289 518 559 0 1,364 837 3,337 294 483 490 0 1,194 876 3.693 281 490 859 0 1.078 985 2.484 283 430 653 0 308 810 3 497 294 5,709 4,577 1,132 6,340 5,299 1,041 5,516 5.011 505 6,981 6,513 468 6.024 5.704 320 5.945 5.419 506 2,604 2,463 2,948 3,293 2,392 43 Asia China 44 Mainland 45 Taiwan 46 Hong Kong 47 India 48 Indonesia 49 Israel 50 Japan 51 Korea (Souch) 52 Philippines 53 Thailand 54 Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries4 55 Other 4.864 4,550 0 825 457 323 18.024 466 1.846 1.696 739 61.468 13.975 1,318 2,612 9.639 6,486 56 Africa 57 Egypt 58 Morocco 59 South Africa 60 Zaire 61 Oil-exponing countries^ 62 Other 2,742 210 514 465 1 552 63 Other 64 Australia . 65 Other . . 2,467 66 Nonmonetary international and regional organizations6 1,000 1,622 845 620 345 18,425 25,209 2,786 2,720 589 1. Reporting banks include all types of depository institutions as well as some brokers and dealers. 2. Since December 1992, has excluded Bosnia. Croatia, and Slovenia. 3. Includes the Bank for International Settlements. Since December 1992, has included all parts of the former U.S.S.R. (except Russia), and Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia. 11,207 9,230 530 8.617 4,321 1.110 725 15,210 373 6,514 4.802 629 975 1.209 920 5.225 4,456 49,258 1,990 98,309 53 7 980 4,319 55.797 1,902 94.921 53 8,490 10.507 950 118 20.078 12,939 4.157 4,061 1,055 2,649 13,821 1.878 2.031 898 44.822 11,508 1,258 1,883 12,136 8,792 10,604 19.089 182,742 8.345 1,456 1.713 305 20.666 10.294 4,237 3.826 954 2,640 2.108 941 52,213 9,831 1,280 2,128 12,292 8,651 630 0 1.331 771 1,262 279 426 653 0 1.046 858 1.012 272 190 694 0 6,921 6,067 854 6.371 5.999 372 6,110 471 770 886 5,78.1 327 4,390 4. Comprises Bahrain. Iran. Iraq. Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Trvicial States) 5. Comprises Algeria. Gabon, Libya, and Nigena. 6. Excludes the Bank for International Settlements, which is included in "Other Europe." A56 3.19 International Statistics • January 1999 BANKS' OWN AND DOMESTIC CUSTOMERS' CLAIMS ON FOREIGNERS Payable in U.S. Dollars Reported by Banks in the United States1 Millions of dollars, end of period 1998 Type of claim 1995 1996 1997 Mar. 1 Total 3 4 5 Foreign public borrowers Own foreign offices2 Unaffiliated foreign banks 7 8 Other All other foreigners 9 Claims of banks' domestic customers'' 10 Deposits 11 Negotiable and readily transferable instruments 12 Outstanding collections and other claims Apr. May 700,035 32,465 409,955 104,622 24,324 80,298 152,993 703,532 28.986 415,175 105,501 21,282 84,219 153,870 June July' Aug. Sepl.p 740.236 35.634 446,536 101,777 23,283 78,494 156,289 764,022 29,757 465,154 105,862 24,593 81,269 163,249 754,467 26,397 472,082 108,844 30,250 78,594 147,144 32.347 28,860 28,345 881,218r 655,211 743,919 852,899 842,461 532,444 22,518 307,427 101,595 37,771 63,824 100,904 599,925 22,216 341,574 113,682 33,826 79,856 122,453 708,272 20,660 431,685 109,224 31,042 78,182 146,703 687,648 28,232 402,387 107,794 25,657 82.137 149,235 122,767 58,519 143,994 77.657 144,627 73.110 154,813 85.406 153,276 86,408 44,161 51,207 53,967 51,594 52,171 20,087 15,130 17,550 17,813 14,697 8,410 10,388 9,624 7,496 6,604 30,717 39,661 34.046 31,958 727,942' 27,780' 435,201 107,525' 22,843 84,682' 157,436 MEMO 13 Customer liability on acceptances 14 Dollar deposits in banks abroad, reported by nonbanking business enterprises in the United Stales5 32,172 25,287 principally of amounts due from the head office or parent foreign bank, and from foreign branches, agencies, or wholly owned subsidiaries of the head office or parent foreign bank. 3. Assets held by reporting banks in the accounts of their domestic customers. 4. Principally negotiable time certificates of deposit, bankers acceptances, and commercial paper. 5. Includes demand and time deposits and negotiable and nonnegotiable certificates of deposit denominated in U.S. dollars issued by banks abroad. 1. For banks' claims, data are monthly, for claims of banks' domestic customers, data are for quarter ending with month indicated. Reporting banks include all types of depository institution as well as some brokers and dealers. 2. For U.S. banks, includes amounts due from own foreign branches and foreign subsidiaries consolidated in quarterly Consolidated Reports of Condition filed with bank regulatory agencies. For agencies, branches, and majority owned subsidiaries of foreign banks, consists 3.20 31,633 BANKS' OWN CLAIMS ON UNAFFILIATED FOREIGNERS Payable in U.S. Dollars Reported by Banks in the United States' Millions of dollars, end of period 1997 Maturity, by borrower and area" 1994 1995 1996 Sept. 1 Total 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 By borrower Maturity of one year or less Foreign public borrowers All other foreigners Maturity of more than one year Foreign public borrowers All other foreigners By area Maturity of one year or less Europe Canada Latin America and Caribbean Asia Africa Allother 1 Maturity of more than one year Europe Canada Latin America and Caribbean Asia Africa All other3 202.282 224,932 258,106 281,000 276,597 285,518 292,324 170,411 15,435 154,976 31,871 7,838 24,033 178,857 14,995 163,862 46,075 7,522 38,553 211.859 15,411 196,448 46,247 6.790 39.457 217,981 20,123 197.858 63,019 8,752 54,267 205,859 12,069 193,790 70,738 8.525 62,213 214,822 16,952 197,870 70.696 11.310 59,386 211,029 17,023 194,006 81,295 10,651 70,644 56,381 6,690 59,583 40,567 1,379 5,811 55,622 6,751 72,504 40,296 1,295 2,389 55.690 8,339 103,254 38,078 1,316 5,182 69,204 8,460 99.929 34.650 2,157 3,581 58,294 9,917 97,277 33,972 2,211 4,188 69,245 9,304 101,013 28,748 2,228 4,284 73,787 8,766 99,294 23,569 1,116 4,497 4,358 3,505 15,717 5,323 1,583 1,385 4,995 2,751 27,681 7,941 1.421 1,286 6,965 2,645 24,943 9,392 1.361 941 11.202 3,842 34,988 10,393 1,236 1,358 13,240 2,512 42,069 10,198 1,236 1,483 15,118 2,752 39,337 10.731 1,254 1,504 15,606 2,573 47,881 12.569 1,259 1. Reporting banks include all types of depository inslitutions as well as some brokers and dealers. 2. Maturity is time remaining until maturity. 3. Includes nonmonetary international and regional organizations. 1,407 Bank-Reported Data A57 3.21 CLAIMS ON FOREIGN COUNTRIES Held by U.S. and Foreign Offices of U.S. Banks1 Billions of dollars, end of period 1996 Area or country Sept. 1 Total Sept. 499.5 551.9 612.8 586.2 645.3 647.5 678.8 711.0 725.9 739.2 191.2 7.2 19.1 24.7 11.8 3.6 2.7 5.1 85.8 10.0 21.1 206.0 13.6 226.9 11.4 18.0 31.4 14.9 4.7 2.7 228.3 11.7 231.4 14.1 19.7 32.1 14.4 4.5 3.4 6.0 99.2 16.3 21.7 250.0 9.4 17.9 34.1 20.2 247.7 II 4 20.2 242.8 101.6 12.2 23.6 220.0 11.3 17.4 33.9 15.2 5.9 3.0 6.3 90.5 14.8 21.7 113.4 13.7 28.6 249.1 112 15.6 25.5 19.7 7.3 4.8 5.6 120.1 13.5 25.8 13 Other industrialized countries 14 Austria 15 Denmark 16 Finland 17 Greece 18 Norway 19 Portugal 20 Spain 21 Turkey 22 Other Western Europe 23 South Africa 24 Australia 45.7 1.1 1.3 .9 4.5 2.0 1.2 50.2 .9 2.6 .8 5.7 3.2 1.3 11.6 1.9 4.7 1.2 16.4 55.5 1.2 3.3 .6 5.6 2.3 1.6 13.6 2.3 3.4 2.0 19.6 62.1 1.0 1.7 .6 6.1 3.0 1.4 16.1 2.8 4.8 1.7 22.8 65.7 1.1 1.5 .8 6.7 8.0 .9 13.2 2.7 4.7 2.0 24.0 66.4 1 9 1.7 .7 6.3 5.3 1.0 14.4 2.8 6.3 1.9 24.4 71.7 1.5 2.8 1.4 6.1 4.7 1.1 15.4 3.4 5.5 1.9 27.8 73.8 1.7 3.7 1.9 6.2 4.6 1.4 13.9 4.4 6.1 1.9 64.5 1.5 2.4 1.3 5.1 3.6 .9 11.7 4.5 8.2 2.2 23.1 74.3 1.7 2.0 1.5 6.1 4.0 .7 16.5 4.9 9.9 3.7 2.3.2 25 OPEC2 26 Ecuador 27 Venezuela 28 Indonesia 29 Middle Easl countries 30 African countries 24.1 .5 3.7 3.8 15.3 .9 22.1 19.2 19.7 1.1 2.4 5.2 10.7 .4 21.8 1.1 1.9 4.9 13.2 .7 22.3 .9 2.1 5.6 12.5 1.2 22.9 1.2 2.2 6.5 .6 20.1 .9 2.3 4.9 11.5 .5 26.0 1.3 2.5 6.7 14.4 1.2 25.7 1.3 3.3 5.5 14.3 1.4 31 Non-OPEC developing countries 96.0 112.6 126.5 130.3 128.1 140.6 138.7 147.4 11.2 8.4 6.1 2.6 18.4 .5 2.7 12.9 13.7 6.8 2.9 17.3 14.1 21.7 6.7 2.8 15.4 1.2 3.0 15.0 17.8 6.6 3.1 16.3 1.3 3.0 14.3 20.7 7.0 4.1 16.2 1.6 3.3 14.3 22.0 6.8 3.7 16.4 27.3 7.6 3.3 16.6 1.4 3.4 17.1 26.1 8.0 3.4 16.4 1.8 3.6 18.4 28.6 8.7 3.4 17.4 2.0 4.1 19.3 32.4 9.0 3.3 17.7 2.1 4.0 1.1 1.8 9.4 4.4 .5 19.1 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.5 2.9 9.8 4.2 2.6 10.4 3.8 2.7 10.5 .5 21 9 5.5 5.4 4.8 4.1 2.5 10.3 4.3 .5 21.5 6.0 5.8 5.7 4.1 3.6 10.6 5.3 .8 16.3 6.4 7.0 7.3 4.7 4.3 9.7 4.9 1.0 16.2 5.6 5.7 6.2 4.5 3.2 90 4.9 .7 15.6 5.1 5.7 5.4 4.3 4.2 11.7 5.0 .7 16.2 4.5 5.0 5.5 4.2 .6 .7 .0 1.0 7 .7 .1 .9 .9 .6 .0 .9 1.1 .7 .0 .9 .7 .0 .9 2 G-10 countries and Switzerland 3 Belgium and Luxembourg 4 France 5 Germany 6 Italy 7 Netherlands 8 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 United Kingdom 11 Canada 12 Japan 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Other 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Asia China Mainland Taiwan India Israel Korea (South) Malaysia Philippines Thailand Other Asia 48 49 50 51 Africa Egypt Morocco Zaire Other Africa' 13.6 1.6 3.2 1.0 15.4 . 52 Eastern Europe 53 Russia4 54 Other 55 Offshore banking centers 56 Bahamas 57 Bermuda 58 Cayman Islands and other British West Indies 59 Netherlands Antilles 60 Panama5 61 Lebanon 62 Hong Kong, China 63 Singapore 64 Other* 65 Miscellaneous and unallocated7 9.2 4.2 .4 16.2 3.1 3.3 2.1 4.7 19.4 27.3 11.5 3.7 2.7 6.7 82.4 10.3 28.5 .7 2.7 4.8 13.3 .6 21.7 5.3 4.7 5.4 4.8 .4 .7 .0 .9 .9 2.3 5.4 10.2 .4 17.2 1.6 3.4 4.9 .6 14.6 6.5 6.0 6.8 4.3 6.4 3.6 5.4 110.6 15.7 26.8 14.7 19.3 7.2 4.1 4.8 108.3 15.1 22.6 28.1 11.0 15.4 28.6 15.5 6.2 3.3 7.2 1.0 .6 .0 1.1 2.7 .8 1.9 4.2 1.0 3.2 5.1 1.0 4.1 5.3 1.8 3.5 6.9 3.7 3.2 8.9 3.5 5.4 7.1 4.2 2.9 9.8 5.1 4.7 9.1 5.1 4.0 12.0 7.5 4.6 72.9 99.2 11.0 6.3 32.4 10.3 1.4 .1 25.0 13.1 .1 57.6 106.1 17.3 4.1 26.1 13.2 1.7 .1 27.6 15.9 .1 72.7 105.2 14.2 4.0 32.0 134.7 20.3 4.5 37.2 26.1 2.0 .1 27.9 16.7 .1 59.6 131.3 20.9 6.7 32.8 19.9 2.0 .1 30.8 17.9 I 59.6 129.6 16.1 7.9 35.1 158 2.6 .1 35.2 16.7 .3 57.6 138.9 19.8 9.8 45.7 21.7 2.1 .1 27.2 145.7 29.9 9.8 43.4 129.3 29.2 9.0 24.9 14.6 14.0 3.2 12.7 .1 12.7 .1 99.1 10.2 8.4 21.4 1.6 1.3 .1 20.0 10.1 .1 66.9 1. The banking offices covered by these data include U.S. offices and foreign branches of U.S. banks, including U.S. banks that are subsidiaries of foreign banks. Offices not covered include U.S. agencies and branches of foreign banks. Beginning March 1994, the data include large foreign subsidiaries of U.S. banks. The data also include other types of U.S. depository institutions as well as some types of brokers and dealers. To eliminate duplication, the data are adjusted to exclude the claims on foreign branches held by a U.S. office or another foreign branch of the same banking institution. These data are on a gross claims basis and do not necessarily reflect the ultimate country risk or exposure of U.S. banks. More complete data on the country risk exposure of U.S. banks are available in the quarterly Country Exposure Lending Survey published by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. 6.3 16.6 29.8 16.0 4.0 2.6 5.3 104.7 14.0 23.7 11.7 1.7 .1 26.0 15.5 .1 50.0 80.8 3.1 .1 32.2 .1 33.8 15.0 .1 101.3 2. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, shown individually, other members of OPEC (Algeria, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait. Libya. Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates); and Bahrain and Oman (not formally members of OPEC). 3. Excludes Liberia. Beginning March 1994 includes Namibia. 4. As of December 1992, excludes other republics of the former Soviet Union. 5. Includes Canal Zone. 6. Foreign branch claims only. 7. Includes New Zealand, Liberia, and international and regional organizations. A58 3.22 International Statistics • January 1999 LIABILITIES TO UNAFFILIATED FOREIGNERS Reported by Nonbanking Business Enterprises in the United States Millions of dollars, end of period Type of liability, and area or country Sepl. 1 Tola! 54,309 46,448 54,798 58,667 56,501 55,8»1 59,618 56,741 52,022 2 Payable In dollars 3 Payable in foreign currencies . . 38,298 16,011 33,903 12,545 38,956 15,842 39,861 18,806 38,651 17,850 39,746 16,145 41,888 17.730 42,237 14,504 40,914 11,108 By type 4 Financial liabilities 5 Payable in dollars 6 Payable in foreign currencies 32,954 18,818 14,136 24,241 12.903 11,338 26,065 11,327 14,738 29,633 11,847 17,786 28,263 11,442 16,821 26,461 11,487 14,974 29,113 12,975 16.138 26,751 13,547 13,204 22,669 12,634 10,035 7 Commercial liabilities 8 Trade payables 9 Advance receipts and other liabilities 21,355 10,005 11,350 22,207 11.013 11,194 28,733 12,720 16.013 29.034 11,432 17,602 28,238 11,040 17,198 29.430 10.885 18,545 30.505 10,904 19,601 29,990 10,107 19,883 29.353 9,842 19,511 19,480 1,875 21,000 1,207 27.629 1,104 28.014 1.020 27.209 1,029 28,259 1,171 28,913 1,592 28,690 1,300 28,280 1,073 21,703 15.622 369 999 1.974 466 895 10.138 16,195 632 1,091 1.834 556 699 10.177 20,081 769 1,205 1,589 507 694 13.863 18,530 238 1,280 1.765 466 591 12,968 18,019 89 1,334 1,730 507 645 12,165 19,238 186 1,684 2,018 494 776 12,318 19,008 127 1,795 2,578 472 345 11,846 15,722 75 1,965 2,441 484 189 8,463 1,401 10 11 Payable in dollars Payable in foreign currencies 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 By area or country Financial liabilities Europe Belgium and Luxembourg France Germany Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom 495 1,727 1,961 552 688 15,543 19 Canada 629 652 602 1.616 651 2.392 1.045 539 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Latin America and Caribbean Bahamas Bermuda Brazil British West Indies Mexico Venezuela 2,034 101 80 207 998 0 5 1,783 59 147 57 86c 12 1,668 236 50 78 1,030 17 1 1,876 293 27 75 965 16 1 1.285 124 55 97 775 15 1 1,067 10 64 52 669 76 1 1,386 141 229 143 604 26 1 965 17 86 91 517 1.320 6 49 76 845 51 1 27 28 29 Asia Japan .. Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries' 8,403 7,314 35 5,988 5,436 27 6.423 5,869 25 6.370 5,794 72 6.248 5,668 39 6,239 5,725 23 5,394 5,085 32 5,024 4,767 23 4,408 3,869 0 30 31 Africi Oil-exporting countries2 135 123 150 122 38 0 29 0 29 0 33 0 60 0 33 0 29 0 8,683 736 708 845 288 429 3,818 9,343 703 782 945 452 400 3,829 10.228 666 764 1,274 439 375 4.086 9,951 565 840 1,068 443 407 4.041 9.924 557 612 1,219 485 349 3,743 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 All other' Commercial liabilities Europe Belgium and Luxembourg France Germany Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom 675 6,773 241 728 604 722 327 2,444 7,700 331 481 767 500 413 3,568 9,767 479 680 1,002 766 624 4,303 9,524 639 679 1.043 551 480 4,158 40 Canada 1,037 1,040 1,090 1,068 1,136 1,150 1.175 1.347 1,511 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Lann America and Caribbean Bahamas Bermuda Brazil British West Indies Mexico Venezuela 1,857 19 345 161 23 574 276 1.740 1 205 98 56 416 221 2,574 63 297 196 14 665 328 2,562 43 479 200 14 633 318 2.500 33 397 225 26 594 304 2,224 38 180 233 23 562 322 2.176 16 203 220 12 565 261 2,051 27 174 249 5 520 219 2,285 14 209 246 27 557 196 48 49 50 Asia Japan Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries' 10,741 4,555 1,576 10,421 3,315 1,912 13,422 4,614 2,168 13,915 4,465 2,495 13.875 4,430 2.420 14.628 4,553 2,984 14,966 4,500 3,111 14,672 4,372 3,138 13,611 3,995 3,194 51 52 Africa Oil-exporting countries . . - 428 256 619 254 1,040 532 1,037 479 941 423 929 504 874 408 833 376 921 354 53 Other 3 ... 1,103 1,156 1,086 1,136 687 1. Comprises Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar. Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Trucial States). 840 2. Comprises Algeria, Gabon. Libya, and Nigeria. 3. Includes nonmonetary international and regional organizations. Nonbank-Reported Data A59 3.23 CLAIMS ON UNAFFILIATED FOREIGNERS the United States Reported by Nonbanking Business Enterprises in Millions of dollars, end of period Type of claim, and area or country Sept. Dec. Mar. Junep 57,888 52,509 63,542 68,266 70,760 70,077 72.837 64,020 53.805 4,083 48,711 3,798 58,630 5,012 62,126 5,976 62.082 6.184 64,144 6.616 62,173 7.904 65,359 7,478 58,463 5,557 By type 4 Financial claims 5 Deposits 6 Payable in dollars 7 Payable in foreign currencies 8 Other financial claims 9 Payable in dollars 10 Payable in foreign currencies 33.897 18.507 18,026 481 15,390 1,084 27,398 15,133 14.654 479 12,265 10,976 1,289 35,268 21,404 20,631 773 13,864 12,069 1,795 40.547 22.150 20,499 1.651 18,397 15.381 3,016 40,717 24.308 22.817 1,491 16,409 13,152 3.257 42,059 24,125 22,566 1,559 17,934 14,621 3,313 38,908 23,139 21,290 1,849 15,769 11,576 4.193 42.134 21.030 19.322 1.708 21.104 16,814 4,290 33,120 15,922 14.244 1,678 17,198 14,567 2,631 11 Commercial claims 12 Trade receivables i3 Advance payments and other claims . 23,991 21,158 2,833 25,111 22,998 2,113 28.374 25,751 2.623 27.555 24.801 2,754 27,549 24,858 2,691 28,701 25,110 3,591 31,169 27,536 3,633 30.703 26.888 3,815 30,900 26,817 4,083 14 15 Payable in dollars Payable in foreign currencies 21,473 2.518 23,081 2,030 25,930 2,444 26,246 1,309 26,113 1.436 26,957 1,744 29,307 1,862 29,223 1.480 29,652 1,248 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 By area or country Financial claims Europe Belgium and Luxembourg France '. . Germany Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom 7.936 86 800 540 429 523 4,649 7,609 193 803 436 517 498 4,303 9.282 185 694 276 493 474 6,119 13.076 119 760 324 567 570 9.837 12.904 203 680 231 519 447 9,814 15,862 360 1.112 352 764 448 11.254 16.948 406 1,015 427 677 434 12,286 16.020 378 902 393 911 401 11,122 14,047 518 796 290 975 403 9,595 2 Payable in dollars 3 Payable in foreign currencies 23 Canada 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Latin America and Caribbean Bahamas Bermuda Brazil British Wesl Indies Mexico Venezuela 31 32 33 Asia Japan Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries1 34 15 Africa Oil-exporting countries 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 14,306 3.5S1 2,851 3.445 4,917 6.422 4.279 .3.313 4,688 3,035 19,536 2,424 27 520 15,228 723 35 14,500 1,965 81 830 10,393 554 32 19,577 1,452 140 1,468 15,182 457 31 19,742 1,894 157 1.404 15.176 517 22 18,725 2.064 188 1,617 13,553 497 21 19.176 2,442 190 1,501 12.957 508 15 15,54.3 2,459 108 1,313 10.311 537 36 18,207 1.316 66 1.408 13.551 967 47 12,775 1,310 48 1,394 8,153 1,089 57 1.871 953 141 1,579 871 2,221 1.035 22 2.068 831 12 1.934 lib 20 2,015 999 15 2,133 823 2,174 791 9 2.376 886 12 373 0 276 5 174 14 182 14 179 15 174 16 319 15 125 16 155 15 569 562 10,443 226 1,644 1,337 562 642 2,946 9,863 364 1.514 1.364 582 418 2.626 9.603 327 1,377 1.229 613 389 2,836 10,486 331 1,642 1,395 573 381 2,904 12,120 328 1,796 1,614 597 554 3,660 12,854 232 1,939 1.670 534 476 4,828 12,935 216 1,955 1.757 492 418 4,654 All other' Commercial claims Europe Belgium and Luxembourg France T Germany Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom 9,540 21? 1,881 1.027 311 557 2,556 9,824 231 1.830 1,070 452 520 2,656 44 Canada 1,988 1.951 2,165 2.381 2,464 2,649 2,660 2.882 2,779 4? 46 47 48 49 50 51 Latin America and Caribbean Bahamas Bermuda Brazil British West Indies Mexico Venezuela 4,117 9 234 612 83 1,243 348 30 272 898 79 993 285 5,276 35 275 1,303 190 1,128 357 5.067 40 159 1.216 127 1.102 330 5.241 29 197 1.136 98 1,140 451 5.028 22 128 1,101 98 1,219 418 5.750 27 244 1,162 109 1,392 576 5.481 1.3 238 1.128 88 1.302 441 6,082 12 359 1,183 110 1,462 585 52 53 54 Asia 6,982 2.655 708 7.312 1,870 974 8,376 2.003 971 8,348 2,065 1,078 8,460 2,079 1,014 8,576 2.048 987 8,713 1,976 1,107 7,638 1,713 987 7,367 1,757 1,127 55 56 Africa Oil-exporting countries 454 67 654 87 746 166 718 100 618 81 764 207 680 119 57 Other' Japan Middle Eiastern oil-exporting countries' 1,006 1. Comprises Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Trucial Stales). 1,198 2. Comprises Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigena. 3. Includes nonmonetary international and regional organizations. 657 116 A60 International Statistics D January 1999 3.24 FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS IN SECURITIES Millions of dollars 1998 1998 Transaction, and area or country Jan.— Sepl. Mar. May Apr. July Aug. Sept.p 141,566 139,722 139,171 149,535 U.S. corporate securities STOCKS 1 Foreign purchases 2 Foreign sales 3 Net purchases, or sales (—) . . . . 4 Foreign countries 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Europe France Germany Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom Canada Latin America and Caribbean . Middle East1 Other Asia Japan Africa Other countries Nonmonetary international and regional organizations .. 590,714 578,203 1,097,958 1,028,361 1,186,876 1.147,565 136,184 122,769 134,177 130,628 129,528 121,355 146,147 142,591 152,833 150,308 12,511 69,597 39,311 13,415 3,549 8,173 3,556 2,525 1,844 -10,364 12,585 69,754 39,679 13,419 3,570 8,193 3.581 2,739 1,843 -10,321 5,367 -2,402 62,688 6,641 9,059 3,831 65,795 6,046 10,417 5,195 9.023 18,736 -3,072 -8,025 -354 -14,530 -3,017 784 -919 11,144 5,511 -260 1,453 161 974 595 55 -3,689 346 1,563 555 128 -344 10,670 650 1,834 564 2,234 2,968 -506 7,227 1,734 1,020 830 1,490 695 -1,600 1,798 286 -3,949 -540 204 -385 6,983 199 1,503 1,265 1,092 1,154 -443 -614 -134 -2,905 -306 -14 -134 5,459 988 1,326 2,226 -172 1,340 902 -261 788 -153 -11,735 146 -684 469 -98 -23 1,104 1,415 2,715 4,478 2.226 5,816 -1,600 918 -372 -85 -57 7,848 22,478 -1,406 5,203 383 2,072 4,787 472 342 1.480 627 557 1.956 3.402 566 2,110 -170 -202 -1,422 83 -112 -1.333 -234 -611 275 -74 163 -277 1,740 -276 610 -157 -4,112 214 159 160 -43 -214 BONDS 2 19 Foreign purchases 20 Foreign sales 21 Net purchases, or sales ( - ) . . . 22 Foreign countries 2.1 Europe 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 France Germany Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom Canada Latin America and Caribbean . Middle East' Other Asia Japan Africa Other countries Nonmonetary international and regional organizations . . . 393,953 268.487 610,116 415.958 654,469 516,206 70,079 50.208 76,452 52,225 65,495 52,584 74,100 53.167 73,772r 62,213 67,229' 58,678 102.374 92.746 125,466 134,158 138,263 19,871 24,227 12,911 20,933 11,559' 8,551r 9.628 r 8,513' 9,578 9,41 l r 451 812 108 234 5,411' 640 2.029 171 -588 -511 -48 21 5.513' 233 139 32 100 3.624' 439 1,592 -188 1,709 -10 -17 -535 14,446 92 264 275 1.005 11,965 441 -2,948 -58 -1.842 -713 -61 -400 125,295 133,595 137,725 19,732 24,097 12,853 20,834 77,570 4,460 71,631 3,300 2,742 3,576 187 54,134 6,264 34,733 2,155 16,996 9,357 1,005 811 92,413 2.532 4,068 1.944 4,693 68,826 5,041 31,691 1,685 6,596 3,327 76 223 12,669 727 249 364 358 9,833 400 4,835 522 19,024 33 1,727 523 772 12,117 667 302 344 404 1,166 742 -72 212 363 2,256 69 2.078 2,904 45 262 5,555 -17 -133 532 794 4,585 628 6,703 109 -106 460 -31 -5 538 139 130 58 4,439 2,107 1,170 60,509 4,486 17,737 1,679 23,762 14,173 624 -563 14.346 8,696 607 6,371 162 1.266 527 82 229 ll,636 38 Foreign securities 37 Stocks, net purchases, or sales ( - ) 38 Foreign purchases 39 Foreign sales 40 Bonds, net purchases, or sales ( - ) 41 Foreign purchases 42 Foreign sales 43 Net purchases, or sales (—), of stocks and bonds 44 Foreign countries 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Europe Canada Latin America and Caribbean Asia Japan Africa Other countries 52 Nonmonetary international and regional organizations -59,268 450,365 509,633 -51,369 1,114,035 796,957 -48,171 1,451,704 4,305 709,964 705.659 -29,007 1.120,208 1,165,404 1.499,875 1,149,215 -110,637 -89,113 -24,702 -40,942 756,015 -137 80,736 80,873 -12,158 118,296 130,454 -3,393 80,941 84,334 -1,882 110,403 112,285 -6,248 -12,295 -5,275 -451 r 6,570 9,040 -6,220 -12,331 -5,443 -9,794 -380 r 6,587 9,041 2.328' 2,195 -4,864 -64 -316 -269 294 1,211 2,631 -1,205 4,227 1,741 -122 -155 5,755 -1,158 1.206 3.399 2.088 -163 -17 -1 2.535 88,508 85,973 -12,355 151.477 163,832 -109,766 -88,921 -24,632 -57,139 -7.685 -11,507 -27,831 -5,887 -29,874 -5,196 2,061 -12,591 -6,634 -3,682 -1,364 -908 -1,783 618 -7,902 -7,118 -152 101 -1,457 -475 -6,108 -3,520 1,265 -302 -469 -2,035 -1,335 -1,092 -779 -681 -79 -123 -7,240 214 -2.548 516 -38 -32 -704 -70 -28 36 168 -26 -1,517 -4,087 -3,085 -25,258 -25,123 -10,001 -3,293 -2.288 -871 1. Comprises oil-exporting countries as follows: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar. Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Trucial States). -1,689 81,360 83,049 -4,559 128.396 132,955 -3,516' 82,130' 85,646' 3,065 118,890 115,825 -71 5,552 74.358 68,806 1.018 139,341 138,323 6,074 89.467 83,393 2,966 152,650 149,684 2. Includes state and local government securities and securities of U.S. government agencies and corporations. Also includes issues of new debt securities sold abroad by US. corporations organized to finance direct investments abroad. Securities Holdings and Transactions/Interest and Exchange Rates A61 3.25 MARKETABLE US. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES Millions of dollars; net purchases, or sales (-) during period Foreign Transactions' Area or country Jan.— Sept. Apr. May July Aug. Sept.p 1 Total estimated . 232,241 184,171 16,061 -4,091 6,078 21,267 1,674 -3,578 -15,776 -4,984 2 Foreign counlries 234,083 183,688 15.277 -5,287 6,769 21,116 1,978 -3,631 -15,776 -4.975 118,781 1,429 17,980 -582 2,242 328 144,921 3,427 21,025 1,744 -1,058 -4,845 6,530 -165 -829 130 -202 -483 5,785 2.294 1.457 788 176 -143 341 184 44 -2,720 2.906 -223 715 -513 -1,181 731 335 -973 -1,426 3,742 -66 -5,903 215 82 -265 239 -827 -5,769 422 -569 -2,804 667 -1,799 -3,081 -152 -680 8,019 -5,778 -2,088 -2,457 104 1,722 20,523 2.813 -2,432 -857 704 1,897 -1,733 400 170 -3,705 1,410 -517 -8,383 -128 -11 -8,244 3,522 -168 154 794 -7.981 14 -632 -7,363 20.033 -339 -335 20.707 1,455 1,582 13 -950 2.578 693 3,513 -1,628 -1,153 -2,442 145 -241 949 450 2,305 -1,806 1,327 774 -23 588 -5.940 -1,233 6 1,524 1,041 -1.471 -509 16,396 -17,358 1,645 754 547 -4.037 -1,842 -1,390 -779 483 621 170 784 -116 203 1.196 900 10 -691 -715 -4 151 136 -304 -226 0 53 -135' 192 0 -10 234,083 85,807 148,276 183,688 43,959 139,729 15,277 -21,995 37,272 -5,287 6,133 -11,420 6,769 1,162 5,607 21,116 898 20,218 1,978 -3,486 5,464 -3,631 469 -4,100 -15,776 -16,920 1,144 -10.304 5,329 10.232 1 7,636 -12 - 14,069 2 1,325 0 -380 0 951 0 -1.388 0 -2,578 0 -4,160 1 -5,837 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Europe Belgium and Luxembourg Germany Netherlands Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Other Europe and former U.S.S.R. Canada 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Latin America and Caribbean Venezuela Other Latin America and Caribbean Netherlands Antilles Asia Japan Africa Other 65,658 31,726 2,331 20.785 -69 8,439 12,415 89,735 41,366 1,083 1,368 20 Nonmonetary international and regional organizations 21 International 22 Latin American regional 22,471 1,746 -465 6,028 98,253 13,461 -811 -2,554 655 -549 -2,660 39,567 20,360 126 7,966 6,301 -18 -1,185 904 -579 -330 362 2,585 -5,503 -691 -1,308 3,914 -8,546 -3,856 299 2,982 -4,221 -207 128 81 -468 62 -1,150 -9 MEMO 23 Foreign countries 24 Official institutions 25 Other foreign Oil-exporting countries 26 Middle East 2 T 7 A A-!,.,.-' 1. Official and pnvate transactions in marketable U.S. Treasury securities having an original maturity of more than one year. Data are based on monthly transactions reports. Excludes nonmarketable U.S. Treasury bonds and notes held by official institutions of foreign countries. 3.26 -4.975 2. Comprises Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar. Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Trucial States). 3. Comprises Algeria. Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria. DISCOUNT RATES OF FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS1 Percent per year, averages of daily figures Rate on Nov 30, 1998 Rate on Nov. 30, 1998 Country Country Austria . . . . Canada Denmark . . . Percent Month effective 2.5 2.75 5.25 4.25 3.3 Apr. 1996 Oct. 1997 Nov. 1998 Sept. 1998 Ocl. 1997 1. Rates shown are mainly those at which the central bank either discounts or makes advances against eligible commercial paper or government securities for commercial banks or brokers. For countries with more than one rate applicable to such discounts or advances, the rate shown is the one at which it is understood that the central bank transacts the largest proportion of its credit operations. 3.27 Month effective Percent 2.5 4.0 .5 2.5 1.0 Germany . Italy Japan . .. Netherlands Switzerland Apr. Oct. Sept. Apr. Sept. 1996 1998 1995 1996 1996 2. Since February 1981. the rale has been that at which the Bank of France discounts Treasury bills for seven to ten days. FOREIGN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES1 Percent per year, averages of daily figures 1998 Type or country I Eurodollars 2 United Kingdom 6 Netherlands 8 Italy 9 Belgium 10 Japan 1995 5.93 6.63 7 14 4.43 2.94 4.30 6 43 10.43 4.73 1.20 1996 5.38 5.99 4 49 3.21 1.92 2.91 381 8 79 3.19 .58 1997 5.61 6.81 3 59 3.24 1.58 3.25 3 35 6 86 3.40 .58 1. Rates are for three-month interbank loans, with the following exceptions: Canada, finance company paper; Belgium, three-month Treasury bills; and Japan, CD rale. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 5.57 7.37 5 09 3.55 1.52 3.53 3 50 4.98 3.67 .56 5.57 7.61 5 10 3.49 1.81 3.51 3 47 4.99 3.62 .57 5.57 7.67 5.10 3.46 1.98 3.46 3.44 4.75 3.59 .67 5.56 7.61 5 35 3.42 1.68 3.43 3.44 4.78 3.48 .69 5.39 7 35 5.66 3.40 1.43 3.33 3.43 4.86 3.42 .45 5.17 7.11 5.43 3.50 1.20 3.28 3.45 4.40 3.41 .49 5.21 6.84 5.42 3.56 1.44 3 48 3.49 3.82 3.47 .52 A62 3.28 International Statistics • January 1999 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES AND INDEXES OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE VALUE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR1 Currency units per dollar except as noted 1998 Hem 1995 1996 1997 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.' Exchange Rates COUNTRY/CURRKNCY UNIT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Australia/dollar2 Austria/schilling Belgium/franc Brazil/real Canada/dollar China. P.R./yuan Denmark/krone Finland/markka France/franc German y/deutsche mark Greece/drachma 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Hong Kong/dollar India/rupee Ireland/pound2 Italy/lira Japan/yen Malaysia/ringgil Mexico/peso Netherlands/guilder New Zealand/dollar Norway/krone Portugal/cscudo 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Singapore/dollar South Africa/rand South Korea/won Spain/peseta Sri Lanka/rupee Sweden/krona Switzerland/franc Taiwan/dollar Thailand/baht United Kingdom/pound Venezuela/bolivar 74.07 10.076 29.47 0.9162 1.3725 8.3700 5.5999 4.3763 4.9864 1.4321 231.68 78.28 10.589 30.97 1.0051 1.3638 8.3389 5.8003 4.5948 5.1158 1.5049 240.82 74.37 12.206 35.81 1.0779 1.3849 8.3193 6.6092 5.1956 5.8393 1.7348 273.28 60.46 12.615 36.98 1.1543 1.4655 8.3100 6.8294 5 4503 6.0118 1.7928 304.24 61.80 12.650 37.07 1.1614 1.4869 8.3100 6.8499 5.4653 6.0280 1.7976 299.35 58.88 12.574 36.85 1.1717 1.5346 8.3100 6.8067 5.4340 5.9912 1.7869 301.21 58.89 11.955 35.05 1.1805 1.5218 8.3055 6.4717 5.1734 5.6969 1.6990 292.47 61.79 11.524 33.81 1.1889 1.5452 8.2778 6.2294 4.9845 5.4925 1.6381 281.64 63.49 11.840 34.71 1 1932 1.5404 8.2778 6.3960 5.1163 5.6422 1.6827 282.64 7.7357 32.42 160.35 1,629.45 93.96 2.5073 6.447 1.6044 65.63 6.3355 149.88 7.7345 35.51 159.95 1.542.76 108.78 2.5154 7.600 1.6863 68.77 6.4594 154.28 7.7431 36.36 151.63 1,703.81 121.06 2.8173 7.918 1.9525 66.25 7.0857 175 44 7.7471 42.37 140.51 1.766.32 140.33 4.0006 8.920 2.0208 51.23 7.5785 183.58 7.7483 42.61 139.88 1.772.42 140.79 4.1591 8.899 2.0267 51.85 7.6246 183.93 7.7494 42.84 140.37 1,763.01 144.68 4.2036 9.371 2.0148 50.11 7.7248 182.99 7 7480 42.58 147.24 1,678.92 134.48 3.8050 10.219 1.9169 50.44 7.5564 174.19 7.7483 42.39 152.21 1,620.96 121.05 3.8000 10.159 1.8479 52.13 7.4294 168.01 7.7432 42.43 147.77 1,664.91 120.29 3.8000 9.969 1.8969 53.40 7.4562 172.52 1.4171 3.6284 772.69 124.64 51.047 7.1406 1.1812 26.496 24.921 157.85 174.85 1.4100 4.3011 805.00 126.68 55.289 6.7082 1.2361 27.468 25.359 156.07 417.19 1.4857 4.6072 950.77 146.53 59.026 7.6446 1.4514 28.775 31.072 163.76 488.39 1.6941 5.3910 1,397 77 152.18 65.150 7.9174 1.4949 34.553 42 332 165.04 543.82 1.7085 6.2285 1,295.76 152.58 65.908 7 9942 1.5136 34.387 41.300 164.37 558.47 1.7571 6.3198 1,314.29 151.72 66.642 8.1282 1.4933 34.731 41.720 163.42 571.88 1.7226 6.0966 1.375.54 144.33 66.260 7.8816 1.4000 34.646 40.402 168.23 583.85 1.6378 5.7991 1,344.14 139.23 66.345 7.8395 1.3373 33.121 38.118 169.44 570.68 1.6378 5.6511 1,294.01 143.05 67.578 8.0140 1.3852 32.603 36.527 166.11 569.66 Indexes1 NOMINAL 34 35 36 37 G-10 (March 1973= 1(X))4 Broad (January 1997= lOOr Major currencies (March 1973= 100)6 Other important trading partners (January 1997-100) 7 * .... 38 Broad (March 1973= 100)5 39 Major currencies (March 1973- 100)fc 40 Other important trading partners, (March 1973= 100)7 84.25 92.52 81.39 87.34 97.41 85.23 96.38' 104.47 91.85 100.90 117.87 98.68 101.38 118.17 99.31 101.80 120.14 100.96 97.17 118.85 96.99 93.69 115.46 93.46 95.46 115.34 94.23 92.51 98.25 104.67 125.97 125.64 127.77 131.38 129.02 127.31 83.95 80.78 85.89 85.83 90.49 93.20 99.89 100.42' 100.25 101.41 101.76 103.21 100.05 99.05 97.06 95.47' 96.66 96.27 109.80 106.57 106.51 106.42 105.91 107.14 108.77 106.42 104.24 1. Averages of cenified noon buying rates in New York for cable transfers. Data in this table also appear in the Board's G.5 (405) monthly statistical release. For ordering address, see inside front cover. 2. Value in U.S. cents. 3. For more information on the indexes of the toreign exchange value of the dollar, see Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 84 (October 1998), pp. 811-18. 4. Weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries. The weight for each of the ten countries is the 1972-76 average world trade of lhat country divided by the average world trade of all ten countries combined. Series revised as of August 1978 (see Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 64 (August 1978), p. 700) 5. Weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of U.S. trading partners. The weight for each currency is computed as an average of U.S. bilateral import shares from and export shares to the issuing country and of a measure of the importance to U.S. exporters of that country's trade in third country markets. 6. Weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue. The weight for each currency is its broad index weight scaled so that the weights of the subset of currencies in the index sum to one. 7. Weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of broad index currencies that do not circulate widely outside the country of issue. The weight for each currency is its broad index weight scaled so that the weights of the subset of currencies in the index sum to one. A63 Guide to Statistical Releases and Special Tables STATISTICAL RELEASES—-List Published Semiannually, with Latest Bulletin Reference Anticipated schedule of release dates for periodic releases Issue December 1998 Page A72 Issue Page SPECIAL TABLES—Data Published Irregularly, with Latest Bulletin Reference Title and Date Assets and liabilities of commercial banks September 30, 1997 December 31, 1997 March 31, 1998 June 30, 1998 February May August November 1998 1998 1998 1998 A64 A64 A64 A64 Terms of lending at commercial banks November 1997 February 1998 May 1998 August 1998 February May August November 1998 1998 1998 1998 A68 A66 A67 A66 and liabilities of U.S. branches and agencies offoreign banks September 30, 1997 December 31, 1997 March 31, 1998 June 30, 1998 February May August November 1998 1998 1998 1998 A72 A70 A72 A72 July 1998 October 1998 January 1999 A64 A64 A64 Residential lending reported under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 1995 1996 1997 September 1996 September 1997 September 1998 A68 A68 A68 Disposition of applications for private mortgage insurance 1996 1997 September 1997 September 1998 A76 A72 Small loans to businesses and farms 1997 September 1998 A76 Community development lending reported under the Community Reinvestment Act 1997 .....' September 1998 A79 Pro forma balance sheet and income statements for priced sen'ice operations March 31, 1998 June 30, 1998 September 30, 1998 A64 4.31 Special Tables • January 1999 PRO FORMA FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR FEDERAL RESERVE PRICED SERVICES A. Pro forma balance sheet Millions of dollars Item Short-term assets (Note 1) Imputed reserve requirement on clearing balances Sept. 30, 1997 Sept. 30, 1998 655.7 5,901.3 68 8 4.5 17.1 4,169.0 646.3 5,816.7 66 2 2.9 28.7 5,238.6 10,816.4 Total short-term assets 11,799.4 Long-term assets (Note 2) Leases and leasehold improvements 396.4 126.0 22.9 415.5 389.1 132.5 33.7 334.5 Total long-term assets Total assets 960.9 889.8 11,777.3 12,689.1 Short-term liabilities Clearing balances and balances arising from early credit Deferred-availability items Short-term debt 6,146.8 4,579.2 90.4 6,974.7 4,726.8 97.8 108164 11,799.4 Long-term liabilities Long-term debt Postretirement/postemployment benefits obligation 0.0 190.9 214.6 .7 187.8 203.8 Total long-term liabilities Total liabilities 405.5 392.3 11,221.9 12,191.6 Equity Total liabilities and equity (Note 3) NOTE. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. The priced services financial statements consist of these tables and the accompanying notes. (1) SHORT-TERM ASSETS The imputed reserve requirement on clearing balances held at Reserve Banks by depository institutions reflects a treatment comparable to that of compensating balances held at correspondent banks by respondent institutions. The reserve requirement imposed on respondent balances must be held as vault cash or as nonearning balances maintained at a Reserve Bank; thus, a portion of priced services clearing balances held with the Federal Reserve is shown as required reserves on the asset side of the balance sheet. The remainder of clearing balances is assumed to be invested in three-month Treasury bills, shown as investment in marketable securities. Receivables are (1) amounts due Che Reserve Banks for priced services and (2) the share of suspense-account and difference-account balances related to priced services. Materials and supplies are the inventory value of short-term assets. Prepaid expenses include salary advances and travel advances for priced-service personnel. Items in process of collection is gross Federal Reserve cash items in process of collection (CIPC) stated on a basis comparable to that of a commercial bank. It reflects adjustments for intra-System items that would otherwise be double-counted on a consolidated Federal Reserve balance sheet; adjustments for items associated with non-priced items, such as those collected for government agencies; and adjustments for items associated with providing fixed availability or credit before items are received and processed. Among the costs to be recovered under the Monetary Control Act is the cost of float, or net CIPC during the period (the difference between gross CIPC and deferred-availability items which is the portion of gross CIPC that involves a financing cost), valued at ihe federal funds rate. 555.5 497.5 11,777.3 12,689.1 (2) LONG-TERM ASSETS Consists of long-term assets used solely in priced services, the priced-services portion of long-term assets shared with nonpriced services, and an estimate of the assets of the Board of Governors used in the development of priced services. Effective Jan. 1, 1987, the Reserve Banks implemented the Financial Accounting Standards Board's Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 87, Employers' Accounting for Pensions (SFAS 87). Accordingly, the Federal Reserve Banks recognized credits to expenses of $20.4 million in the third quarter of 1998, $28.7 million in the second quarter of 1998, $ 16.2 million in the first quarter of 1998, $15.8 million in the third quarter of 1997, $15.6 million in the second quarter of 1997, $15.6 million in the first quarter of 1997, and corresponding increases in this asset account. (3) LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Under the matched-book capital structure for assets that are not "self-financing," short-term assets are financed with short-term debt. Long-term assets are financed with long-term debt and equity in a proportion equal to the ratio of long-term debt to equity for the fifty largest bank holding companies, which are used in the model for the private-sector adjustment factor (PSAF). The PSAF consists of the taxes that would have been paid and the return on capital that would have been provided had priced services been furnished by a private-sector firm. Other short-term liabilities include clearing balances maintained at Reserve Banks and deposit balances arising from float. Other long-term liabilities consist of obligations on capital leases. Bank-Reported Data A65 4.31 PRO FORMA FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR FEDERAL RESERVE PRICED SERVICES B. Pro forma income statement Millions ot dollars Item Quarter ending Sept. 30, 1998 Revenue from services provided to depository institutions (Note 4) Operating expenses (Note 5) Income from operations Inputed costs (Note 6) Interest on float Interest on debt Sales taxes FDIC insurance 1.8 4.3 2.4 0.7 Income from operations after imputed costs Other income and expenses (Note 7) Investment income on clearing balances Earnings credits Income before income taxes Inpuled income taxes (Note 8) Net income Quarter ending Sept. 30, 1997 205.5 197.8 167.0 166.6 38.4 31.1 9.1 2.8 4.4 2.1 2.9 29.3 89.8 (85.6) MEMO Targeted return on equity (Note 9) 4.2 33.5 10.7 22.7 93.5 85.9 17.1 Nine months ending Sept. 30, 1998 Revenue from services provided to depository institutions {Note 4) Operating expenses (Note 5) Income from operations Imputed costs (Note 6) Interest on float Interest on debt Sales taxes FDIC insurance !).] 12.8 6.1 0.7 Income from operations after imputed costs Other income and expenses (Note 7) Investment income on clearing balances Earnings credits 7.6 26.5 8.5 18.0 13.5 Nine months ending Sept. 30, 1997 602.5 483.9 586.6 494.8 118.6 91.9 30.7 8.9 13.1 7.1 4.0 88.0 271.3 (251.2) 12.3 18.9 20.2 33.1 58.8 273.6 (251.6) 22.0 108.1 80.8 Imputed income taxes (Note 8) 34.7 25.9 Nel income 73.4 54.9 49.9 40.5 Income before income taxes MEMO Targeted return on equity (Note 9) NOTE. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. The priced services financial statements consist of these tables and the accompanying notes. (4) REVENUE Revenue represents charges to depository institutions for priced services and is realized from each institution through one of two methods, direct charges to an institution's account or charges against its accumulated earnings credits. (5) OPERATING EXPENSES Operating expenses consist of the direct, indirect, and other general administrative expenses of the Reserve Banks for priced services plus the expenses for staff members of the Board of Governors working directly on the development of priced services. The expenses for Board staff members were $.7 million per quarter in the first three quarters of 1998 and 1997. The credit to expenses under SFAS 87 (see note 2) is reflected in operating expenses. (6) IMPUTED COSTS Imputed costs consist of interest on float, interest on debt, sales taxes, and the FDIC assessment. Interest on float is derived from the value of float to be recovered, either explicitly or through per-item fees, during the period. Float costs include costs for checks, book-entry securities, noncash collection, ACH. and funds transfers. Interest is imputed on the debt assumed necessary to finance priced-service assets. The sales taxes and FDIC assessment that the Federal Reserve would have paid had it been a private-sector firm are among the components of the PSAF (see note 3). The following lisl shows the daily average recovery of float by the Reserve Banks for the third quarter of 1998 and 1997 in millions of dollars: Total float Unrecovered float Float subject to recovery Sources of float recovery Income on clearing balances As-of adjustments Direct charges Per-itern fees 1998 1997 386.2 19.7 366.5 480.8 39.1 441.7 36.6 240.2 113.7 (23.9) 44.4 242.2 99.6 55.5 Unrecovered float includes float generated by services to government agencies and by other central bank services. Float recovered through income on clearing balances is the result of the increase in investable clearing balances; the increase is produced by a deduction for float for cash items in process of collection, which reduces imputed reserve requirements. The income on clearing balances reduces the float to be recovered through other means. As-of adjustments and direct charges are mid-week closing float and interterritory check float, which may be recovered from depositing institutions through adjustments to the institution's reserve or clearing balance or by valuing the float at the federal funds rate and billing the institution directly. Float recovered through per-item fees is valued at the federal funds rate and has been added to the cost base subject to recovery in the third quarters of 1998 and 1997. (7) OTHER INCOME AND EXPENSES Consists of investment income on clearing balances and the cost of earnings credits. Investment income on clearing balances represents the average coupon-equivalent yield on three-month Treasury bills applied to the total clearing balance maintained, adjusted for the effect of reserve requirements on clearing balances. Expenses for earnings credits granted to depository institutions on their clearing balances are derived by applying the average federal funds rate to the required portion of the clearing balances, adjusted for ihe net effect of reserve requirements on clearing balances. (8) INCOME TAXES Imputed income taxes are calculated at the effective tax rate derived from the PSAF model (see note 3). (9) RETURN ON EQUJTY Represent the after-lax rale of return on equity that the Federal Reserve would have earned had it been a private business firm, as derived from the PSAF model (see note 3). This amount is adjusted to reflect the recover)' of automation consolidation costs of $4.0 million for the third quarter of 1998, $4.1 million for the second quarter of 1998, $2.6 million for the first quarter of 1998, $2.0 million for the third quarter of 1997, $1.9 million for the second quarter of 1997, and $2.3 million for the first quarter of 1997. The Reserve Banks plan to recover these amounts, along with a finance charge, by the end of the year 2001. A66 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Index to Statistical Tables References are to pages A3-A65 although the prefix "A" is omitted in this index ACCEPTANCES, bankers (See Bankers acceptances) Assets and liabilities (See also Foreigners) Commercial banks. 15-21 Domestic finance companies, 32. 33 Federal Reserve Banks, 10 Foreign-related institutions, 20 Automobiles Consumer credit, 36 Production, 44, 45 BANKERS acceptances, 5, 10, 22, 23 Bankers balances, 15-21. (See also Foreigners) Bonds (See also U.S. government securities) New issues, 31 Rates, 23 Business activity, nonfinanciat, 42 Business loans (See Commercial and industrial loans) CAPACITY utilization, 43 Capital accounts Commercial banks, 15-21 Federal Reserve Banks, 10 Central banks, discount rates, 61 Certificates of deposit, 23 Commercial and industrial loans Commercial banks, 15-21 Weekly reporting banks, 17, 18 Commercial banks Assets and liabilities, 15-21 Commercial and industrial loans, 15-21 Consumer loans held, by type and terms, 36 Real estate mortgages held, by holder and property, 35 Time and savings deposits, 4 Commercial paper, 22, 23, 32 Condition statements (See Assets and liabilities) Construction, 42, 46 Consumer credit, 36 Consumer prices, 42 Consumption expenditures, 48, 49 Corporations Profits and their distribution, 32 Security issues, 31, 61 Cost of living (See Consumer prices) Credit unions, 36 Currency in circulation, 5, 13 Customer credit, stock market, 24 DEBT (See specific types of debt or securities) Demand deposits, 15-21 Depository institutions Reserve requirements, 8 Reserves and related items, 4, 5, 6, 12 Deposits (See also specific types) Commercial banks, 4, 15-21 Federal Reserve Banks, 5, 10 Discount rates at Reserve Banks and at foreign central banks and foreign countries (See Interest rates) Discounts and advances by Reserve Banks (See Loans) Dividends, corporate, 32 EMPLOYMENT, 42 Eurodollars, 23, 61 FARM mortgage loans, 35 Federal agency obligations, 5, 9, 10, 11, 28, 29 Federal credit agencies. 30 Federal finance Debt subject to statutory limitation, and types and ownership of gross debt, 27 Receipts and outlays, 25, 26 Treasury financing of surplus, or deficit, 25 Treasury operating balance, 25 Federal Financing Bank, 30 Federal funds, 23, 25 Federal Home Loan Banks, 30 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, 30, 34, 35 Federal Housing Administration, 30, 34, 35 Federal Land Banks. 35 Federal National Mortgage Association, 30, 34, 35 Federal Reserve Banks Condition statement, 10 Discount rates (See Interest rates) U.S. government securities held, 5, 10, 11, 27 Federal Reserve credit, 5. 6, 10, 12 Federal Reserve notes, 10 Federal Reserve System Balance sheet for priced services, 64, 65 Condition statement for priced services, 64, 65 Federally sponsored credit agencies, 30 Finance companies Assets and liabilities, 32 Business credit, 33 Loans, 36 Paper, 22, 23 Float, 5 Flow of funds, 37-41 Foreign currency operations, 10 Foreign deposits in U.S. banks, 5 Foreign exchange rates, 62 Foreign-related institutions, 20 Foreign trade, 51 Foreigners Claims on, 52, 55, 56, 57, 59 Liabilities to, 51, 52, 53, 58, 60, 61 GOLD Certificate account, 10 Stock, 5, 51 Government National Mortgage Association, 30, 34. 35 Gross domestic product. 48, 49 HOUSING, new and existing units, 46 INCOME and expenses, Federal Reserve System, 64, 65 Income, personal and national, 42, 48, 49 Industrial production, 42, 44 Insurance companies, 27, 35 Interest rates Bonds, 23 Consumer credit, 36 Federal Reserve Banks, 7 Foreign central banks and foreign countries, 61 Money and capital markets, 23 Mortgages, 34 Prime rate. 22 International capital transactions of United States, 50-61 International organizations, 52, 53, 55, 58, 59 Inventories, 48 Investment companies, issues and assets, 32 A67 Investments (See also specific types) Commercial banks, 4, 15-21 Federal Reserve Banks. 10. 11 Financial institutions, 35 LABOR force. 42 Life insurance companies (See Insurance companies) Loans (See also specific types) Commercial banks, 15-21 Federal Reserve Banks, 5, 6, 7, 10. 11 Federal Reserve System, 64, 65 Financial institutions, 35 Insured or guaranteed by United States. 34, 35 MANUFACTURING Capacity utilization, 43 Production, 43. 45 Margin requirements, 24 Member banks {See also Depository institutions) Reserve requirements, 8 Mining production. 45 Mobile homes shipped, 46 Monetary and credit aggregates, 4, 12 Money and capital market rates, 23 Money stock measures and components. 4. 13 Mortgages (See Real estate loans) Mutual funds, 13, 32 Mutual savings banks (See Thrift institutions) NATIONAL defense outlays. 26 National income. 48 OPEN market transactions. 9 PERSONAL income, 49 Prices Consumer and producer, 42, 47 Stock market, 24 Prime rate. 22 Producer prices, 42, 47 Production, 42. 44 Profits, corporate, 32 REAL estate loans Banks, 15-21,35 Terms, yields, and activity. 34 Type of holder and property mortgaged, 35 Reserve requirements, 8 Reserves Commercial banks, 15-21 Depository institutions, 4, 5. 6, 12 Federal Reserve Banks, 10 U.S. reserve assets, 51 Residential mortgage loans. 34, 35 Retail credit and retail sales. 36. 42 SAVING Flow of funds, 37-41 National income accounts, 48 Savings institutions. 35, 36, 37^41 Savings deposits (See Time and savings deposits) Securities {See also specific types) Federal and federally sponsored credit agencies, 30 Foreign transactions, 60 New issues. 31 Prices, 24 Special drawing rights, 5. 10. 50. 51 State and local governments Holdings of U.S. government securities. 27 New security issues, 31 Rates on securities. 23 Stock market, selected statistics. 24 Stocks (See also Securities) New issues, 31 Prices, 24 Student Loan Marketing Association, 30 TAX receipts, federal, 26 Thrift institutions, 4. (See also Credit unions and Savings institutions) Time and savings deposits, 4, 13, 15-21 Trade, foreign, 51 Treasury cash. Treasury currency, 5 Treasury deposits, 5. 10.25 Treasury operating balance, 25 UNEMPLOYMENT, 42 U.S. government balances Commercial bank holdings, 15-21 Treasury deposits at Reserve Banks, 5. 10, 25 U.S. government securities Bank holdings, 15-21,27 Dealer transactions, positions, and financing. 29 Federal Reserve Bank holdings, 5. 10. 11, 27 Foreign and international holdings and transactions, 10. 27. 61 Open market transactions, 9 Outstanding, by type and holder. 27, 28 Rates, 23 U.S. international transactions, 50-62 Utilities, production. 45 VETERANS Administration, 34, 35 WEEKLY reporting banks. 17, 18 Wholesale (producer) prices. 42. 47 YIELDS (See Interest rates) A68 Federal Reserve Bulletin • J anuary 1999 Federal Reserve Board of Governors and Official Staff ALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman ALICE M. RIVLIN, Vice Chair EDWARD W. KELLEY, JR. LAURENCE H. MEYER OFFICE OF BOARD MEMBERS LYNN S. FOX, Assistant to the Board DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE DONALD J. WINN, Assistant to the Board THEODORE E. ALLISON, Assistant to the Board for Federal Reserve System Affairs WINTHROP P. HAMBLEY, Special Assistant to the Board BOB STAHLY MOORE, Special Assistant to the Board DIANE E. WERNEKE, Special Assistant to the Board LEWIS S. ALEXANDER, Deputy Director PETER HOOPER III, Deputy Director DALE W. HENDERSON, Associate Director DAVID H. HOWARD, Senior Adviser EDWIN M. TRUMAN, Senior Adviser DONALD B. ADAMS, Assistant Director THOMAS A. CONNORS, Assistant Director LEGAL DIVISION DIVISION OF RESEARCH AND STATISTICS KAREN H. JOHNSON, Director J. VIRGIL MATTINGLY, JR., General Counsel MICHAEL J. PRELL, Director SCOTT G. ALVAREZ, Associate General Counsel RICHARD M. ASHTON, Associate General Counsel OLIVER IRELAND, Associate General Counsel KATHLEEN M. O'DAY, Associate General Counsel KATHERINE H. WHEATLEY, Assistant General Counsel EDWARD C. ETTIN, Deputy Director DAVID J. STOCKTON, Deputy Director WILLIAM R. JONES, Associate Director MYRON L. KWAST, Associate Director PATRICK M. PARKINSON, Associate Director THOMAS D. SIMPSON, Associate Director LAWRENCE SLIFMAN, Associate Director OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY JENNIFER J. JOHNSON, Secretary ROBERT DEV. FRIERSON, Associate Secretary BARBARA R. LOWREY, Associate Secretary and Ombudsman DIVISION OF BANKING SUPERVISION AND REGULATION RICHARD SPILLENKOTHEN, Director STEPHEN C. SCHEMERING, Deputy Director HERBERT A. BIERN, Associate Director ROGER T. COLE, Associate Director WILLIAM A. RYBACK, Associate Director GERALD A. EDWARDS, JR., Deputy Associate Director STEPHEN M. HOFFMAN, JR., Deputy Associate Director JAMES V. HOUPT, Deputy Associate Director JACK P. JENNINGS, Deputy Associate Director MICHAEL G. MARTINSON, Deputy Associate Director SIDNEY M. SUSSAN, Deputy Associate Director MOLLY S. WASSOM, Deputy Associate Director HOWARD A. AMER, Assistant Director NORAH M. BARGER, Assistant Director BETSY CROSS, Assistant Director RICHARD A. SMALL, Assistant Director WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, Project Director, National Information Center MARTHA S. SCANLON, Deputy Associate Director DAVID S. JONES, Assistant Director STEPHEN D. OLINER, Assistant Director STEPHEN A. RHOADES, Assistant Director JANICE SHACK-MARQUEZ, Assistant Director CHARLES S. STRUCKMEYER. Assistant Director ALICE PATRICIA WHITE, Assistant Director JOYCE K. ZICKLER, Assistant Director GLENN B. CANNER, Senior Adviser JOHN J. MINGO, Senior Adviser DIVISION OF MONETARY AFFAIRS DONALD L. KOHN, Director DAVID E. LINDSEY, Deputy Director BRIAN F. MADIGAN, Associate Director RICHARD D. PORTER, Deputy Associate Director VINCENT R. REINHART, Deputy Associate Director WILLIAM C. WHITESELL, Assistant Director NORMAND R.V. BERNARD, Special Assistant to the Board DIVISION OF CONSUMER AND COMMUNITY AFFAIRS DOLORES S. SMITH, Director GLENN E. LONEY, Deputy Director SANDRA F. BRAUNSTEIN, Assistant Director MAUREEN P. ENGLISH, Assistant Director ADRIENNE D. HURT, Assistant Director IRENE SHAWN MCNULTY, Assistant Director A69 ROGER W. FERGUSON, JR. EDWARD M. GRAMLICH OFFICE OF STAFF DIRECTOR FOR MANAGEMENT DIVISION OF RESERVE BANK OPERATIONS AND PAYMENT SYSTEMS S. DAVID FROST, Staff Director CLYDE H. FARNSWORTH, JR., Director JOHN R. WEIS, Adviser DAVID L. ROBINSON, Deputy Director (Finance and Control) MANAGEMENT DIVISION S. DAVID FROST, Director STEPHEN J. CLARK, Associate Director, Finance Function DARRELL R. PAULEY, Associate Director, Human Resources Function SHEILA CLARK, EEO Programs Director LOUISE L. ROSEMAN, Associate Director PAUL W. BETTGE, Assistant Director JACK DENNIS, JR., Assistant Director EARL G. HAMILTON, Assistant Director JOSEPH H. HAYES, JR., Assistant Director JEFFREY C. MARQUARDT, Assistant Director MARSHA REIDHILL, Assistant Director DIVISION OF SUPPORT SERVICES OFFICE OF THE INSPECTOR ROBERT E. FRAZIER, Director BARRY R. SNYDER, Inspector General GEORGE M. LOPEZ, Assistant Director DAVID L. WILLIAMS, Assistant Director DIVISION OF INFORMATION RESOURCES MANAGEMENT STEPHEN R. MALPHRUS, Director RICHARD C. STEVENS, Deputy Director MARIANNE M. EMERSON, Assistant Director MAUREEN HANNAN, Assistant Director Po KYUNG KIM, Assistant Director RAYMOND H. MASSEY, Assistant Director EDWARD T. MULRENIN, Assistant Director DAY W. RADEBAUGH, JR., Assistant Director ELIZABETH B. RIGGS, Assistant Director GENERAL DONALD L. ROBINSON, Assistant Inspector General A70 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Federal Open Market Committee and Advisoiy Councils FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE MEMBERS WILLIAM J. MCDONOUGH, Vice Chairman ALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman EDWARD G. BOEHNE ROGER W. FERGUSON, JR. EDWARD M. GRAMLICH EDWARD W. KELLEY, JR. LAURENCE H. MEYER ROBERT D. MCTEER, JR. MICHAEL H. MOSKOW GARY H. STERN ALICE M. RIVLIN ALTERNATE MEMBERS J. ALFRED BROADDUS, JR. JACK GUYNN ROBERT T. PARRY JERRY L. JORDAN STAFF DONALD L. KOHN, Secretary and Economist NORMAND R.V. BERNARD, Deputy Secretary LYNN S. FOX, Assistant Secretary GARY P. GILLUM, Assistant Secretary J. VIRGIL MATTINGLY, JR., General Counsel THOMAS C. BAXTER, JR., Deputy General Counsel MICHAEL J. PRELL, Economist LYNN E. BROWNE, Associate Economist STEPHEN G. CECCHETTI, Associate Economist CRAIG S. HAKKIO, Associate Economist DAVID E. LINDSEY. Associate Economist MARK S. SNIDERMAN, Associate Economist THOMAS D. SIMPSON, Associate Economist DAVID J. STOCKTON, Associate Economist PETER R. FISHER. Manager, System Open Market Account FEDERAL ADVISORY COUNCIL THOMAS H. JACOBSEN, President CHARLES T. DOYLE, Vice President WILLIAM M. CROZIER. JR.. First District DOUGLAS A. WARNER III, Second District WALTER E. DALLER. JR.. Third District ROBERT W. GILLESPIE. Fourth District KENNETH D. LEWIS. Fifth District STEPHEN A. HANSEL, Sixth District NORMAN R. BOBINS, Seventh District THOMAS H. JACOBSEN, Eighth District RICHARD A. ZONA, Ninth District C. Q. CHANDLER, Tenth District CHARLES T. DOYLE, Eleventh District VACANCY, Twelfth District JAMES ANNABLE, Co-Secretary WILLIAM J. KORSVIK, Co-Secretary A71 CONSUMER ADVISORY COUNCIL WILLIAM N. LUND, Augusta, Maine, Chairman YVONNE S. SPARKS, St. Louis, Missouri, Vice Chairman RICHARD S. AMADOR, LOS Angeles, California WALTER J. BOYER, Garland, Texas WAYNE-KENT A. BRADSHAW, LOS Angeles, California JEREMY EISLER, Biloxi, Mississippi ROBERT F. ELLIOT, Prospect Heights, Illinois HERIBERTO FLORES, Springfield, Massachusetts DWIGHT GOLANN, Boston, Massachusetts MARVA H. HARRIS, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania KARLA IRVINE, Cincinnati, Ohio FRANCINE C. JUSTA, New York, New York JANET C. KOEHLER, Jacksonville, Florida GWENN KYZER, Allen, Texas JOHN C. LAMB, Sacramento, California ERROL T. LOUIS, Brooklyn, New York MARTHA W. MILLER, Greensboro, North Carolina DANIEL W. MORTON, Columbus, Ohio CHARLOTTE NEWTON, Springfield, Virginia CAROL PARRY, New York, New York PHILIP PRICE, JR., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania DAVID L. RAMP, Minneapolis, Minnesota MARILYN ROSS, Omaha, Nebraska MARGOT SAUNDERS, Washington, D.C. ROBERT G. SCHWEMM, Lexington, Kentucky DAVID J. SHIRK, Eugene, Oregon GAIL SMALL. Lame Deer, Montana GREGORY D. SQUIRES, Milwaukee, Wisconsin GEORGE P. SURGEON, Chicago, Illinois THEODORE J. WYSOCKI, JR., Chicago, Illinois THRIFT INSTITUTIONS ADVISORY COUNCIL CHARLES R. RINEHART, Santa Ana, California, President WILLIAM A. FITZGERALD, Omaha, Nebraska, Vice President GAROLD R. BASE, Piano, Texas DAVID A. BOCHNOWSKI, Munster, Indiana DAVID E. A. CARSON, Bridgeport, Connecticut RICHARD P. COUGHLIN, Stoneham, Massachusetts STEPHEN D. HAILER, Akron, Ohio F. WELLER MEYER, Falls Church, Virginia EDWARD J. MOLNAR, Harleysville, Pennsylvania GUY C. PINKERTON, Seattle, Washington TERRY R. WEST, Jacksonville, Florida FREDERICK WILLETTS, III, Wilmington, North Carolina A72 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Federal Reserve Board Publications For ordering assistance, write PUBLICATIONS SERVICES, MS-127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551, or telephone (202) 452-3244, or FAX (202) 728-5886. You may also use the publications order form available on the Board's World Wide Web site (http://www.federalreserve.gov). When a charge is indicated, payment should accompany request and be made payable to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or may be ordered via Mastercard, Visa, or American Express. Payment from foreign residents should be drawn on a U.S. bank. BOOKS AND MISCELLANEOUS PUBLICATIONS THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM—PURPOSES AND FUNCTIONS. 1994. 157 pp. ANNUAL REPORT, 1997. ANNUAL REPORT: BUDGET REVIEW, 1998-99. FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN. Monthly. $25.00 per year or $2.50 each in the United States, its possessions, Canada, and Mexico. Elsewhere, $35.00 per year or S3.00 each. ANNUAL STATISTICAL DIGEST: period covered, release date, num- ber of pages, and price. 1981 October 1982 1982 December 1983 1983 October 1984 1984 October 1985 1985 October 1986 1986 November 1987 1987 October 1988 1988 November 1989 1980-89 March 1991 1990 November 1991 1991 November 1992 1992 December 1993 1993 December 1994 1994 December 1995 1990-95 November 1996 239 pp. 266 pp. 264 pp. 254 pp. 231 pp. 288 pp. 272 pp. 256 pp. 712 pp. 185 pp. 215 pp. 215 pp. 281 pp. 190 pp. 404 pp. $ 6.50 $ 7.50 $11.50 $12.50 $15.00 $15.00 $15.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 SELECTED INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES—WEEKLY SERIES OF CHARTS. Weekly. $30.00 per year or $.70 each in the United States, its possessions, Canada, and Mexico. Elsewhere, $35.00 per year or $.80 each. REGULATIONS OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. ANNUAL PERCENTAGE RATE TABLES (Truth in Lending— Regulation Z) Vol. I (Regular Transactions). 1969. 100 pp. Vol. II (Irregular Transactions). 1969. 116 pp. Each volume $5.00. GUIDE TO THE FLOW OF FUNDS ACCOUNTS. 672 pp. $8.50 each. FEDERAL RESERVE REGULATORY SERVICE. Loose-leaf; updated monthly. (Requests must be prepaid.) Consumer and Community Affairs Handbook. $75.00 per year. Monetary Policy and Reserve Requirements Handbook. $75.00 per year. Securities Credit Transactions Handbook. $75.00 per year. The Payment System Handbook. $75.00 per year. Federal Reserve Regulatory Service. Four vols. (Contains all four Handbooks plus substantial additional material.) $200.00 per year. Rates for subscribers outside the United States are as follows and include additional air mail costs: Federal Reserve Regulatory Service, $250.00 per year. Each Handbook, $90.00 per year. FEDERAL RESERVE REGULATORY SERVICE FOR PERSONAL COMPUTERS. CD-ROM; updated monthly. Standalone PC. $300 per year. Network, maximum 1 concurrent user. $300 per year. Network, maximum 10 concurrent users. $750 per year. Network, maximum 50 concurrent users. $2,000 per year. Network, maximum 100 concurrent users. $3,000 per year. Subscribers outside the United States should add $50 to cover additional airmail costs. THE U.S. ECONOMY IN AN INTERDEPENDENT WORLD: A MULTI- COUNTRY MODEL, May 1984. 590 pp. $14.50 each. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—1986 EDITION. December 1986. 440 pp. $9.00 each. FINANCIAL FUTURES AND OPTIONS IN THE U.S. ECONOMY. December 1986. 264 pp. $10.00 each. FINANCIAL SECTORS IN OPEN ECONOMIES: EMPIRICAL ANALY- SIS AND POLICY ISSUES. August 1990. 608 pp. $25.00 each. RISK MEASUREMENT AND SYSTEMIC RISK: PROCEEDINGS OF A JOINT CENTRAL BANK RESEARCH CONFERENCE. 1996. 578 pp. $25.00 each. EDUCATION PAMPHLETS Short pamphlets suitable for classroom use. Multiple copies are available without charge. Consumer Handbook on Adjustable Rate Mortgages Consumer Handbook to Credit Protection Laws A Guide to Business Credit for Women, Minorities, and Small Businesses Series on the Structure of the Federal Reserve System The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System The Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve Bank Board of Directors Federal Reserve Banks A Consumer's Guide to Mortgage Lock-Ins A Consumer's Guide to Mortgage Settlement Costs A Consumer's Guide to Mortgage Refinancings Home Mortgages: Understanding the Process and Your Right to Fair Lending How to File a Consumer Complaint Making Sense of Savings SHOP: The Card You Pick Can Save You Money Welcome to the Federal Reserve When Your Home is on the Line: What You Should Know About Home Equity Lines of Credit Keys to Vehicle Leasing A73 STAFF STUDIES: Only Summaries Printed in the 165. BULLETIN Studies and papers on economic and financial subjects that are of general interest. Requests to obtain single copies of the full text or to be added to the mailing list for the series may be sent to Publications Services. Staff Studies 1-157, 161, and 168-169 are out of print. 158. T H E ADEQUACY AND CONSISTENCY OF MARGIN REQUIREMENTS IN THE MARKETS FOR STOCKS AND DERIVATIVE Gregory E. Elliehausen and John D. Wolken. September 1993. 18 pp. 166. N E W DATA ON THE PERFORMANCE OF NONBANK SUBSIDIARIES OF BANK HOLDING COMPANIES, by Nellie Liang and Donald Savage. February 1990. 12 pp. 160. 167. A SUMMARY OF MERGER PERFORMANCE STUDIES IN BANKING, 1980-93, AND AN ASSESSMENT OF THE "OPERATING PERFORMANCE" AND "EVENT S T U D Y " METHODOLOGIES, 170. T H E COST OF IMPLEMENTING CONSUMER FINANCIAL REGULATIONS: A N ANALYSIS OF EXPERIENCE WITH THE TRUTH by Stephen A. Rhoades. July 1994. 37 pp. IN SAVINGS ACT, by Gregory Elliehausen and Barbara R. Lowrey, December 1997. 17 pp. 171. T H E COST OF BANK REGULATION: A REVIEW OF THE EVI- DENCE, by Gregory Elliehausen, April 1998. 35 pp. BANKING MARKETS AND THE USE OF FINANCIAL SERVICES BY SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED BUSINESSES, by Gregory E. Elliehausen and John D. Wolken. September 1990. 35 pp. 162. EVIDENCE ON THE SIZE OF BANKING MARKETS FROM MORTGAGE LOAN RATES IN TWENTY CITIES, by Stephen A. 163. CLEARANCE AND SETTLEMENT IN U.S. SECURITIES MAR- Rhoades. February 1992. 11 pp. KETS, by Patrick Parkinson, Adam Gilbert, Emily Gollob, Lauren Hargraves, Richard Mead, Jeff Stehm, and Mary Ann Taylor. March 1992. 37 pp. 164. T H E ECONOMICS OF THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MARKET, by Mark Carey, Stephen Prowse, John Rea, and Gregory Udell. January 1994. 111pp. PRODUCTS, by Mark J. Warshawsky with the assistance of Dietrich Earnhart. September 1989. 23 pp. 159. T H E DEMAND FOR TRADE CREDIT: A N INVESTIGATION OF MOTIVES FOR TRADE CREDIT USE BY SMALL BUSINESSES, by REPRINTS OF SELECTED Bulletin ARTICLES Some Bulletin articles are reprinted. The articles listed below are those for which reprints are available. Beginning with the January 1997 issue, articles are available on the Board's World Wide Web site (http://www.federalreserve.gov) under Publications, Federal Reserve Bulletin articles. Limit of ten copies T H E 1989-92 CREDIT CRUNCH FOR REAL ESTATE, by James T. Fergus and John L. Goodman, Jr. July 1993. 20 pp. FAMILY FINANCES IN THE U.S.: RECENT EVIDENCE FROM THE SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES. January 1997. A74 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Maps of the Federal Reserve System !{".<• - MlNNKAlt'llS EWYORK DALLAS HAWAII LEGEND Both pages • Federal Reserve Bank city • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. Facing page • Federal Reserve Branch city — Branch boundary NOTE The Federal Reserve officially identifies Districts by number and Reserve Bank city (shown on both pages) and by letter (shown on the facing page). In the 12th District, the Seattle Branch serves Alaska, and the San Francisco Bank serves Hawaii. The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The Board of Governors revised the branch boundaries of the System most recently in February 1996. A75 1-A 2-B MB 3-C 4-D 5-E Pittsburgh Baltimore MD NY FA \f Vf , Buffalo MA Mi s NJ • Cincinnati / Jv BOSTON NEW YORK 6-F KY CLEVELAND PHILADELPHIA RICHMOND 8-H 7-G • Nashvilk1 r- TN- • Charlotte D E " " " KY Ml Birminghairul _ r,A II. • Detroit! f .• MO .Kioksonville LA ) IN , •• .,, Louisville liis IN V \ \ OrkMUs Little • Rock Ms Miami ATLANTA ST. LOUIS CHICAGO 9-1 MN • Helena Ml MINNEAPOLIS 10-J 12-L - » • Omaha* ALASKA DL'IULT Seattle • •- l.ilkima ( i i US KANSAS CITY 11-K fJS Sak Lake City VT. l-.l Paso •Lus Angeles S.m Antonio HAWAII DALLAS SAN FRANCISCO A76 Federal Reserve Bulletin • January 1999 Federal Reserve Banks, Branches, and Offices FEDERAL RESERVE BANK branch, or facility Zip Chairman Deputy Chairman President First Vice President BOSTON* 02106 William C. Brainard William O. Taylor Cathy E. Minehan Paul M. Connolly NEW YORK* 10045 John C. Whitehead Peter G. Peterson 14240 Bal Dixit William J. McDonough Vacancy PHILADELPHIA 19105 Edward G. Boehne William H. Stone, Jr. CLEVELAND* 44101 Buffalo Joan Carter Charisse R. Lillie Carl W. Turnipseed' G. Watts Humphrey, Jr. David H. Hoag 45201 George C. Juilfs 15230 John T. Ryan, III Jerry L. Jordan Sandra Pianalto RICHMOND* 23219 J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr. Walter A. Varvel Baltimore Charlotte 21203 28230 Claudine B. Malone Jeremiah J. Sheehan Daniel R. Baker Joan H. Zimmerman John F. Wieland Paula Lovell V. Larkin Martin Marsha G. Rydberg Mark T. Sodders N. Whitney Johns R. Glenn Pumpelly Jack Guynn Patrick K. Barron Lester H. McKeever, Jr. Arthur C. Martinez Florine Mark Michael H. Moskow William C. Conrad Susan S. Elliott Charles W. Mueller To be announced To be announced To be announced William Poole W. LeGrande Rives David A. Koch James J. Howard To be announced Gary H. Stern Colleen K. Strand Jo Marie Dancik Terrence P. Dunn Kathryn A. Paul Larry W. Brummett Gladys Styles Johnston Thomas M. Hoenig Richard K. Rasdall Roger R. Hemminghaus James A. Martin To be announced To be announced To be announced Robert D. McTeer, Jr. Helen E. Holcomb Gary G. Michael Nelson C. Rising Lonnie Kane Nancy Wilgenbusch Barbara L. Wilson Richard R. Sonstelie Robert T. Parry John F. Moore Cincinnati Pittsburgh ATLANTA Birmingham Jacksonville Miami Nashville New Orleans 30303 35283 32231 33152 37203 70161 CHICAGO* 60690 Detroit 48231 ST. LOUIS 63166 Little Rock Louisville Memphis 72203 40232 38101 MINNEAPOLIS 55480 Helena KANSAS CITY Denver Oklahoma City Omaha DALLAS El Paso Houston San Antonio 59601 64198 80217 73125 68102 75201 79999 77252 78295 SAN FRANCISCO 94120 Los Angeles Portland SaltLakeCity Seattle 90051 97208 84125 98124 Vice President in charge of branch Charles A. Cerino1 Robert B. Schaub William J. Tignanelli1 DanM. Bechter1 James M. Mckee Fred R. Herr1 James D. Hawkins1 James T. Curry III Melvyn K. Purcell Robert J. Musso David R. Allardice' Robert A. Hopkins Thomas A. Boone Martha L. Perine John D.Johnson Carl M. Gambs > Kelly J. Dubbert Steven D. Evans Sammie C. Clay Robert Smith, III' James L. Stall> MarkL. Mullinix1 Raymond H. Laurence1 Andrea P. Wolcott Gordon R. G. Werkema2 'Additional offices of these Banks are located at Windsor Locks, Connecticut 06096; East Rutherford, New Jersey 07016; Utica at Oriskany, New York 13424; Columbus, Ohio 43216; Columbia, South Carolina 29210; Charleston. West Virginia 25311; Des Moines, Iowa 50306; Indianapolis, Indiana 46204; Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202; and Peoria, Illinois 61607. 1. Senior Vice President. 2. Executive Vice President