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NEWS RELEASE

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The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
St. Louis

Media Advisory
February 3, 1999

Little Rock

Louisville

Memphis

Contact:
Charles B. Henderson, (314) 444-8311

St. Louis Fed's Regional Economist:
How Asia's Economic Tigers Lost Their Bite
Models and Monetary Policy: More Science Than Art?
Are The National and District Economies Marching In Step?
ST. LOUIS -The January edition of The Regional Economist, the Federal Reserve
Banlc of St. Louis' quarterly journal of economic and business issues, features the
following articles:
• "Paper Tigers? How The Asian Economies Lost Their Bite." Until the middle of
1997, the ''tigers" of Southeast Asia were the envy of the economic kingdom. So what
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went wrong? Economist Michelle Clark Neely analyzed the two main economic theories
on the cause of the crisis: Either the region's financial systems were severely flawed, or a
swift change in investo~' expectations caused massive outflows of capital that triggered
and fed the crisis.
• "Models and Monetary Policy: More Science Than Art?" It's been said that
"Forecasters may never be right, but they are never in doubt." Economist Kevin L.
Kliesen examined the various types of forecasting models available to economists and
policymakers. He concluded that while models are useful tools, they can probably only
support -


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

not replace -

the deliberative process currently in place.
(more)

St. Louis Fed Advisory/2
• "The National and District Economies: Are They Marching In Step?" Labor markets in
the Federal Reserve' s Eighth District, as in the rest of the nation, are very tight. The growth of
the District's payroll employment, however, has been slower than the national average. Looking
at statistics on both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing employment in the region, economist
Adam M. Zaretsky found that the outlook for ..output _growth in 1999 may be a bit weaker in the
District than for the rest of the country.
Subscriptions to The Regional Economist are free and can be obtained by calling (314)
444-8809. The publication is also available on the Bank's web site: www.stls.frb.org.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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