The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) FOMC CLASS III September 17, SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1993 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Erratum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of consumer attitudes. . . . . . . . . . . . THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . . . . . . . . . Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . . . THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. merchandise trade through July. . . . . . . . . . Developments in foreign industrial countries . . . . . Tables Merchandise trade: Census-based data. U.S. merchandise trade: Levels . . . . . . Changes from previous Percent change . . . Summary of . . . . . . period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . months and quarters: . . . . . .. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer Sentiment The Michigan index of consumer sentiment was little changed in the first part of September from the levels prevailing in July and August The early September index value of 77,4 was approximately 14 points below its recent peak in December 1992, reflecting the deterioration in sentiment that occurred in the first half of the year Consumers' assessments of current conditions improved modestly in September while consumers' expectations of future conditions edged lower Among the questions not included in the composite index, consumers' appraisals of buying conditions for cars and houses reversed the declines recorded in August relatively favorable July levels. moving back up to their In contrast respondents' average expectation of the change in unemployment edged up further to its most pessimistic level since July 1992 Average expected inflation over the next twelve months fell by 0.6 percentage point in early September to 4.3 percent, while the median inflation expectation fell 0.2 percentage point to 3.1 percent The average expectation of inflation over the next five to ten years also fell somewhat to 4.4 percent--the lowest reading in the eleven-year history of this series. Although the median expectation of inflation over the next five to ten years rose in September from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent this series has also displayed a downward trend in the past several years Erratum On page two of the Greensheets, page I-16, the percent change in the GDP fixed-weight price index for 1992 was incorrectly reported as 3.4 percent The correct figure is 3.3 percent September 17, 1993 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES (Not seasonally adjusted) 1993 Jan 1993 Feb 1993 Mar 1993 Apr 1993 May 1993 Jun 1993 Jul 1993 Aug 1993 Sep (p) Composite of current and expected conditions 89.3 86.6 85.9 85.6 80.3 81.5 77.0 77.3 77.4 Current conditions Expected conditions 98.6 83.4 96.0 80.6 101.6 75.8 99.9 76.4 98.7 68.5 98.7 70.4 96.2 64.7 95.1 65.8 97.9 64.3 110 127 100 125 111 119 104 120 103 115 108 117 102 112 96 114 105 113 111 97 103 95 96 88 95 91 83 76 89 75 80 66 76 73 72 71 134 145 166 132 148 158 136 152 173 137 155 167 140 152 163 140 147 166 141 147 171 138 150 166 140 148 172 Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings 37 64 40 52 46 74 43 64 41 73 35 53 42 65 42 58 50 63 Expected unemployment change - next 12 months 98 110 117 115 125 127 130 129 131 3.5 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.8 4.4 5.7 4.8 5.2 4.4 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.4 Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100) Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses Expected inflation - next 12 months Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years -- Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. (p) -- Preliminary (f) -- Final Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Asterisk (*) indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall. MONETARY AGGREGATES (Based on seasonally adjusted data except as noted) 19921 1993 Q1 2 1993 Q2 2 1993 Jun. 1993 Jul. Aggregate or component Aggregate 1- Ml 2. M2 3. M3 1992:Q4 Level 1993 to (bil. $) Aug. Aug. 93 Aug. 93 (p) (p) (p) Percentage change (annual rate) 14.3 6-6 10.5 7.2 13.8 1.8 -1.8 2.2 2.6 2.2 0.3 -3.7 2.5 -0.8 13.7 6.2 13.0 9.1 18.0 9.5 3.7 7. Other checkable deposits 15.4 8. M2 minus M13 -2.6 -0.3 10.5 1.8 1.6 10.2 1.2 0.0 1095.0 3526.7 4175.3 7.3 13.9 13.9 11.3 691-1 9.7 16.1 11.1 5.0 11.0 17.3 11.2 16.4 10.3 12.6 312.5 370.8 7.3 6-3 7.3 13.3 4.8 8.3 403.9 -5.3 -1.3 0.6 -2.8 -2.1 -2.5 2431.7 -7.4 -9.7 66.9 39.0 36.2 5.7 78.6 -10.1 -2.2 1.6 -7,9 -8.4 -0.2 -18.0 -0.5 -0.4 4.6 -8.0 -4.2 0.7 -10.1 -1.1 -0.3 6.4 -10.5 -3.6 2.8 -11.5 -0.7 -4.4 0.8 -12.5 -4.0 2.5 -12.0 -6.4 0.0 7.0 -11.2 -3.0 1.7 -9.2 -3.7 -1.2 4.0 -8.9 -5.1 1.2 -12.4 334.5 1252.8 774.0 478.8 766.6 431.2 335.4 -13.1 3.8 -18.9 -14.1 0.2 -6.1 648.6 -16.3 -15.4 -19.6 -17.8 -18.0 -17.5 -1.0 0.6 -7.9 -11.1 -11.5 -9.3 -15.8 -19.4 -1.9 0.7 3.1 -7.5 -8.7 -8.3 -10.5 338.4 275.1 63.3 18.2 7.8 -22.6 -14.1 9.9 0.0 0.4 38.3 19.6 -27.8 41.5 -68.9 -18.8 46.6 -90.8 -10.5 -3.7 38.2 -9.1 25.8 -4.5 193.3 96.1 45.4 Selected components 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 1213. 14. 15. '6. MI-A Currency Demand deposits Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, n.s.a. General-purpose and brokerdealer money market funds Commercial banks Savings deposits Small time deposits Thrift institutions Savings deposits Small time deposits 17. M3 minus M23 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. Large time deposits 4 At commercial banks At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual funds Term RPs, n.s.a. Term Eurodollars, n.s.a. 2.7 -5.2 -0.1 14.5 -15.8 -5.5 14.8 -21.5 -6.6 Average monthly change (billions of dollars) Memo Managed liabilities at com'l. banks (lines 25 26) Large time deposits, gross Nondeposit funds Net due to related foreign institutions Other 5 U.S. government deposits at commercial banks 6 -2.1 -4.6 2.5 3.4 -3.6 7.0 5.8 -1.0 6.9 8.5 -3.7 12.2 17.1 -8.0 25-1 2.7 -0.2 2.8 4.2 2.1 4.7 2.9 9.3 14.9 10.3 14.1 -4.0 114.9 273.4 2.4 7.0 4.0 -0.8 29.3 -0.5 727.9 339.6 388.3 1. "Percentage change' is percentage change in quarterly average from fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of specified year. 'Average monthly change' is dollar change from December to December, divided by 12. 2. "Percentage change" is percentage change in quarterly average from preceding quarter to specified quarter. *Average monthly change" is dollar change from the last month of the preceding quarter to the last month of the specified quarter, divided by 3. 3. Seasonally adjusted as a whole. 4. Net of holdings of money market mutual funds, depository institutions, U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions. 5. Borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs, and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 6. Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDT 1 (Percentage change at annual rate, based on seasonally adjusted data) Dec. 1991 Type of credit to Dec. 1993 1993 1993 Q1 Q2 Jun. 1993 Jul. Level, Aug. 1993 Aug. p 1992 1993 p ($ billions) Commercial bank credit 1. Total loans and securities 3.6 7.2 9.1 8.8 3.4 3,047.5 at banks 2. 13.0 3. U.S. 4. Other 5. government 11.6 10.6 12.1 6.0 9.3 896.0 17.5 Securities 13.0 12.2 16.6 6.1 9.5 713.8 -5.3 5.3 8.6 182.2 2,151.5 -1.1 Loans .2 6. Business 7. Real estate 8. 9. -3.2 6.2 4.5 -. 8 5.8 -1.2 7.9 10.0 .9 .5 3.5 -1.4 .6 591.1 3.7 3.0 910.2 7.4 374.1 -. 9 5.1 7.5 Consumer -1.8 7.7 6.5 3.9 Security 10. 2.1 18.4 -3.7 47.3 Other 1.2 -13.0 9.9 50.4 15.5 12.4 170.2 10.4 -27.8 -7.9 80.2 195.9 Short- and intermediate-term business credit 11. Business loans net of bankers -3.3 -1.8 .1 3.5 -2.7 -. 2 581.5 acceptances 12. Loans at foreign branches 2 2.0 -33.1 -20.5 -5.2 -26.1 -48.0 21.6 -3.1 .1 3.0 -4.0 -1.8 603.1 9.5 -9.3 15.8 -1.6 38.4 23.5 161.1 -. 8 -4.4 3.1 2.1 4.6 3.5 764.2 -3.1 13. Sum of lines 11 and 12 14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 15. Sum of lines 13 and 14 5 16. Bankers acceptances, U.S. trade-related3 , 4 -10.4 -14.2 -16.4 -33.2 n.a. 21.1 n.a. 302.8 5 1.8 17. Finance company loans to business -16.9 -5.1 -. 4 -1.2 -1.2 4 18. Total (sum of lines 15, and 17) 16, -. 5 -4.7 .8 2.3 n.a. 1,085.9 1. Except as noted, levels are averages of Wednesday data and percentage changes are based on averages of Wednesday data; data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassification; changes are measured frcm preceding period to period indicated. 2. Loans to U.S. firms made by foreign branches of daoestically chartered banks. 3. Acceptances that finance U.S. iuports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 4. Changes are based on averages of month-end data. 5. July 1993. p Preliminary. n.a. Not available. SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (Percent except as noted) a1992 y1993 Change to Sep 16. FOMC. Aug 17 -- Sep 16 3.19 3.02 3.01 0.18 0.01 Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year 2.92 2.96 3.06 3.01 3.12 3.28 2.95 3.07 3.25 0.03 0.11 0.19 -0.06 -0.05 -0.03 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 3.22 3.22 3.16 3.18 3.14 3.15 0.08 -0.07 -0.02 -0.03 3.06 3 .06 3.11 3 .09 3.13 3.31 3.10 3.12 3.27 0.04 0.06 0.16 0.01 -0.01 .0.04 3.31 3.31 3.06 3.51 3.06 3.06 0.25 0.25 0.00 -0.07 6.00 6.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 4.38 6.40 7.29 4.39 5.70 6.31 4.19 5.37 6.01 -0.19 !.03 1.28 -0.20 -0.33 -0.30 6.31 5.68 5.49 -0.82 0.19 8.06 '.16 6.98 -1.08 -0.18 7.84 5.15 .17 4.51 6 82 4.33 1.02 0.82 1993 -0.35 '0.18 Instrument Sept. 4 (----I-----|----_ SHORT-TERM RATES 2 Federal funds Large negotiable CDs 1-month 3-month 6-month 4 Eurodollar deposits S-,onth S-month Bank orime rate From Sept. 4 From FOMC. Aug 17 ___ INTERMEDIATE- AND LONG-TERM RATES U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year 5 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) Corporate--A utility. recently offered 6 Home mortgages fixed rate FMLMC 30-yr FHLMC '-yr adjustable rate 1993 1989 r Record high Percentage change to Sep 16 record high From 1989 low -0.58 -0.76 -1.71 -1.32 0.78 69.30 65.55 48.63 95.42 68.14 ____From Stock exchange index Level Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE Composite AMEX Composite NASDAQ (OTC) Wilshire 3652.09 256.88 461.57 749.71 4606.97 I SLow. Date Jan. 3 FOMC. Aug 17 Sep 16 8/25/93 2144.64 3586.98 3630.85 254.94 154.00 251.27 8/31/93 453.68 9/3/93 305.24 442.66 9/3/93 378.56 731.01 739.80 9/1/93 2718.59 4509.28 4570.92 -- One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending September 15. 1993. 3. Secondary market 4. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5. Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes. 6. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown. From FOMC, Aug 17 1.22 1.46 2.49 1.20 .37 -6THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. Merchandise Trade through July In July, the merchandise trade deficit was (seasonally adjusted, Census-basis) but $10.3 billion smaller than recorded in June slightly larger than the average of the second quarter Imports in July were 4-1/2 percent less than in June, and were about 2 percent less than the average for the second quarter decline in imports from June to July was products, petroleum, and consumer goods, primarily in automotive Automotive imports dropped off in July from levels recorded on average during the quarters of the year both from Canada and from other countries part slowing sales (especially passenger cars) in the United States, quantity; the first two (primarily trucks and parts) reflecting in The 8 percent drop in the value of oil imports in July was split between price per barrel) and The (by about $1.00 quantity of imports was slightly less than the average for the second quarter The decrease in imported consumer goods in July partly reversed the run-up recorded in June; the level of consumer goods imports in July was about the same as the second quarter on average was in Offsetting part of these declines an increase in computer imports; the level in July was 8 percent above the average for the second quarter Exports in July were 1 1/2 percent less than in June and were about 3 percent less than the average for the second quarter A sharp drop in the value of exported aircraft accounted for most of the decrease; oscillations. in imports; deliveries of aircraft are subject to sharp Automotive exports also declined, paralleling changes most of exports of computers and parts moved up in July to a level that was 6 percent above the average for the second quarter; exports of semiconductors also rose in July -7Developments in Foreign Industrial Countries In Japan, the government announced preliminary details of its long-awaited economic emergency package the package has regulations three components: on Thursday, September 16, First, many government restricting competition and impeding efficiency will be eased or eliminated, most of them by March 1994, current fiscal year benefits Second, steps will the end of the be taken to pass the of the yen's appreciation on to consumers, including reductions in utility rates, increased import promotion activities, and urging private companies to lower retail import prices. the GDP) package provides for about ¥6 trillion (about 1.3 percent of in increased public works spending, land acquisitions, government lending programs. and As with the earlier August 1992 Y10.7 trillion package and the April 1993 ¥13.2 trillion package, much of The the new package may not boost aggregate spending directly, total effect on Japan's output Third, is spread over the coming year expected to be roughly 1/2 percent of GDP. In France, GDP was flat in the second quarter after declining Consumption rose 2.8 percent (s.a.a.r ) in the first quarter 1.6 percent (s.a.a.r ) after falling 2.8 percent in the first quarter and export growth was strong. made by investment which fell 4.8 Negative contributions were percent (s.a.a.r ) its eighth consecutive decline, and by a sharp fall in inventories. French statistics institute, cautioned that these data are INSEE, the less reliable than in the past because the release of trade data has been delayed by the shift to a new data collection system (trade data are now obtained from VAT forms instead of customs officials) second-quarter GDP The release is based on an estimate of the June trade balance and could be revised substantially when these data become available. Table 1 September 16, 1993 Merchandise Trade: Census-Based Data (in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted*) Exports Total Ag. 393.6 421.7 448.2 1990 1991 1992 Imports NonAg. 40.2 40.1 44.0 353.4 381.6 Total Oil NonOil Balance 404.1 495.3 488.5 532.7 62.1 51.8 51.6 433.2 436.7 481.0 -101.7 -66.7 -84.5 -59.9 -86.1 -98.0 -88.1 Quarters at annual rates: 1992 Qtr 1 2 3 4 441.3 441.6 445.8 463.4 43.4 42.7 44.7 45.6 397.9 398.9 401.2 417.9 501.2 527.7 543.8 551.6 41.8 52.3 57.1 54.8 459.4 475.4 486.8 496.8 1993 Qtr 1 2 453.3 460.2 43.4 43.1 409.9 417.1 557.4 582.7 51.1 57.3 506.3 525.3 -104.1 -122.5 1991 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 34.3 33.6 34.4 35.3 35.1 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.2 36.7 37.1 35.6 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 31.2 30.3 31.0 32.1 31.8 31.9 31.5 31.5 32.0 33.2 33.5 32.0 41.3 39.4 38.9 39.8 40.3 39.8 40.4 40.9 41.5 42.5 41.7 41.8 5.3 4.1 3.7 4.1 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.0 36.0 35.3 35.2 35.6 35.6 35.6 36.3 36.3 36.9 38.3 37.5 37.8 -7.0 -5.8 -4.5 -4.5 -5.1 -4.9 -5.5 -6.0 -6.3 -5.8 -4.6 -6.2 1992 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 35.6 37.6 37.2 36.4 36.0 38.0 37.4 36.4 37.7 38.9 37.8 39.2 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.7 32.0 33.8 33.6 32.6 32.6 34.6 33.7 32.8 33.8 34.9 34.1 35.5 41.6 41.0 42.7 43.4 43.6 44.9 44.9 45.1 46.0 46.1 45.6 46.1 3.6 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.1 37.9 37.6 39.3 39.4 39.4 40.1 40.1 40.4 41.2 41.1 41.1 42.0 -6.0 -3.4 -5.5 -7.0 -7.7 -6.8 -7.5 -8.7 -8.3 -7.2 -7.8 -7.0 1993 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 37.5 36.9 38.9 38.5 38.9 37.6 37.1 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.6 34.0 33.3 35.3 34.7 35.3 34.2 33.5 45.2 44.8 49.3 48.7 47.3 49.7 47.4 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.8 4.3 40.9 40.8 44.9 43.7 42.7 44.9 43.1 -7.7 -7.9 -10.5 -10.2 -8.4 -12.1 -10.3 Monthly Rates: ------------------------ '-------------- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - * All data are on a revised end-use basis. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Customs Valuation. September 16, 1993 TABLE 2 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- LEVELS Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (except as noted), Census-basis Data 1993 Mar 1993 Apr - - - - - - -. - . - - - - - TRADE BALANCE (Census-basis) 1993 Jun .- .-- - - - .- .-- - - 1992 Qtr-2 1993 Jul .- . .- 1992 Qtr-3 . .. . . .. . . . . . 1992 Qtr-4 . . . . . . 1993 Qtr-1 . . . . . . . 1993 Qtr-2 . . . . . . -10453 -10340 -21527 -24497 -22036 -26029 -30616 38479 3745 34734 38930 3587 35343 37639 3443 34197 37083 3553 33530 110396 10664 99731 111462 11174 100288 115859 11392 104467 113327 10846 102481 115048 10775 104273 8504 1000 2439 691 4375 9107 1174 2614 859 4459 8240 977 2527 335 4401 8688 997 2652 618 4420 25128 3456 7871 806 12996 25458 3390 7672 816 13581 25878 3383 7563 1584 13348 25631 3177 7605 1592 13257 25851 3151 7581 1884 13234 15226 3061 2315 1568 8282 15278 2756 2429 1511 8583 15255 3289 2267 1432 8267 14305 1881 2470 1662 8291 43643 9426 7153 3746 23317 43294 8346 7190 4102 23656 45488 9266 7489 4358 24375 44296 8272 7204 4493 24327 45759 9105 7010 4511 25133 4307 4351 2337 Automotive Products Consumer Goods Other Nonagric Exports -12058 15579 3088 2412 1500 8579 Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds -8376 8676 939 2545 616 4576 Ind Supplies (Nonag)** Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies -10182 38894 3644 35251 EXPORTS, Total (FAS Value) Agricultural Nonagricultural . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1993 May 4424 4242 2338 4298 4501 2158 4115 4291 2296 3789 4450 2299 11602 12241 7118 11946 12732 6858 12725 13310 7066 12808 12850 6896 12837 13035 6791 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49347 4454 44893 48660 4931 43729 47306 4567 42739 49698 4829 44869 47424 4280 43143 131923 13073 118850 135960 14271 121689 137895 13690 124205 139356 12772 126584 145664 14327 131337 Foods, Feeds, Beverages 2389 2240 2303 2341 2307 7189 7024 6892 6851 6884 Ind Supplies (ex Oil) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies 8188 1568 751 142 5727 7712 1541 610 154 5406 7698 1479 688 377 5154 7924 1531 834 213 5347 7726 1549 785 163 5230 21594 4118 2155 520 14800 21719 4146 2127 366 15080 22116 4324 2178 472 15142 22495 4434 1971 331 15759 23334 4552 2132 743 15906 12379 892 3053 1478 6957 12426 988 3130 1500 6807 12302 848 2978 1519 6958 13094 1104 3201 1626 7162 12811 828 3344 1625 7014 32824 3321 7652 3712 18138 34337 3071 8340 3908 19018 35321 3246 8586 4156 19333 35777 2636 8970 4493 19677 37822 2940 9310 4646 20927 8850 3445 5405 8777 3212 5565 8159 2875 5283 8588 3139 5450 7756 2714 5042 22721 7905 14816 22869 7900 14969 23695 8085 15611 25117 9204 15913 25524 9226 16298 11489 1598 11094 1481 10671 1605 11307 1614 11003 1541 30177 4346 31532 4207 31473 4708 32085 4260 33072 4701 IMPORTS, Total (Customs Value) Petroleum (revised, SA) Nonpetroleum Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds Automotive Products From Canada From Other Consumer Goods Other Nonpetrol Imports .. ..... . ..... ...... ... .. . . ... .. .... .. .... .. .. . ... ...---...... -- - - - ... - -... - ...... - - - --- ---- ----- --- --- - -- -- ------- Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value* Volume (mbd)* Price ($/bbt)* 4444 8.60 16.67 4785 9.35 17.06 4555 8.58 17.13 4615 9.39 16.38 4235 8.92 15.31 12717 8.10 17.26 14105 8.36 18.34 13522 8.32 17.67 12296 8.41 16.23 13955 9.11 16.85 Passenger Car Imports (NSA) from Canada from Japan* from other (residual) 4848 1798 2016 1035 4647 7624 1971 1051 4088 1508 1637 943 4238 1786 1382 1070 3452 1082 1514 856 11670 4030 4384 3256 10608 3214 4397 2997 13357 3799 5832 3727 12422 4137 5377 2908 12972 4917 4990 3064 _ -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- - '------"----------'----- - - -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- Unrevised data. ** Agricultural Industrial Supplies (primarily cotton and tobacco) are excluded from this line. - - - -10September 16, 1993 TABLE 3 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (except as noted), Census-basis Data Amount Change from Prev. Month Apr May Jun Jul Amount Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-1 Qtr-2 Qtr-4 Qtr-3 $ Change from Year Earlier Q2-Q2 -------.-.-----.--.----.--.--- 271 -3682 1718 -2970 2462 -3993 -4588 -9089 451 -158 609 -1290 -144 -1146 -556 111 -667 1066 510 556 4397 218 4179 -2532 -546 -1986 1721 -72 1792 4652 110 4542 603 174 175 168 85 EXPORTS, Total (FAS Value) Agricultural Nonagricultural 1805 -416 101 -517 TRADE BALANCE (Census-basis) -866 -197 -87 -524 -58 448 19 125 283 20 330 -66 -199 10 585 420 -8 -109 769 -233 -247 -206 41 8 -90 220 -26 -24 293 -23 Ind Supplies (Nonag)** Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds -353 -27 -97 69 -297 52 -305 114 -57 300 -23 533 -162 -79 -315 -950 -1408 204 230 24 -349 -1080 37 356 339 2194 920 299 256 719 -1192 -994 -285 135 -48 1463 833 -194 18 806 Automotive Products Consumer Goods Other Nonagric Exports 117 -110 1 -126 260 -179 -184 -210 137 -326 158 4 344 491 -260 779 578 208 83 -460 -170 29 185 -105 . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. 6308 1555 4753 13741 1254 12487 -41 34 -304 397 178 51 106 61 379 110 -208 -141 618 839 118 162 412 147 1740 -283 -276 143 -1 -148 984 175 246 248 315 455 -609 384 336 345 2045 303 340 153 1250 4998 -381 1658 933 2789 430 264 166 -832 -425 -407 826 185 641 1422 1119 303 -423 -395 124 -116 I~.------ 636 9 -304 -73 IMPORTS, Total (Customs Value) -687 477 Petroleum (revised, SA) -1164 petroleum -1354 -364 -991 2392 261 2130 -2274 -548 -1725 4037 1198 2839 1935 -581 2516 1461 -918 2379 Foods,Feeds,Beverages -150 64 38 -34 -165 -133 Ind Supplies (ex Oil) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies -477 -26 -141 12 -322 -14 -62 78 223 -252 227 52 145 -164 193 -198 18 -49 -50 -117 125 28 -29 -154 280 Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds 46 96 78 22 -150 -123 -141 -152 19 151 791 256 223 108 204 Automotive Products From Canada From Other -73 -232 160 -618 -337 -281 Consumer Goods Other Nonpetrol Imports ------------. 1235 794 -327 612 -59 1355 -449 502 -139 ..---------------- 434 -23 224 1106 2803 1321 1482 987 441 . 2895 355 .---------------- Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value* Volume (mbd)* Price ($/bbl)* 341 0.75 0.39 -231 -0.78 0.08 60 0.81 -0.75 -380 -0.47 -1.07 1387 0.26 1.08 -583 -0.04 -0.67 -1226 0.09 -1.45 1659 0.70 0.63 1238 1.01 -0.41 Passenger Car Imports (NSA) from Canada from Japan* from other (residual) -202 -174 -45 17 -559 -117 -334 -108 151 278 -255 127 -786 -704 132 -214 -1062 -816 13 -259 2749 584 1435 730 -935 339 -454 -820 550 780 -387 157 1302 887 607 -192 Unrevised data. ** Agricultural Industrial Supplies (primarily cotton and tobacco) are excluded from this line. -11September 16, 1993 TABLE 4 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- PERCENT CHANGE Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (except as noted), Census-basis Data Percent Change from Prev, Qtr. Qtr-3 Qtr-4 Qtr-1 Qtr-2 Percent Change from Prev. Month Jul May Jun Apr . .. .. . . . . . . . EXPORTS, Total (FAS Value) Agricutural Nonagricultural -1.1 2.8 -1.5 . . . . . . . % Change from Year Earlier Q2-Q2 . . . . . . -3.3 -4.0 -3.2 -1.5 3.2 -2.0 1.0 4.8 0.6 3.9 2.0 4.2 -2.2 -4.8 -1.9 1.5 -0.7 1.7 7.1 17.4 7.2 24.4 1.9 Ind Supplies (Nonag)** Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies 1.2 -4.2 1.8 4.2 1.0 4.6 -9.5 -16.7 -3.3 -61.0 -1.3 5.4 2.0 4.9 84.7 0.5 1.3 -1.9 -2.5 1.2 4.5 1.6 -0.2 -1.4 94.3 -1.7 -1.0 -6.1 0.5 0.5 -0.7 0.9 -0.8 -0.3 18.4 -0.2 2.9 -8.8 -3.7 133.9 1.8 Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds -2.3 -0.9 -4.0 4.6 -3.5 0.3 -10.0 4.9 -3.7 3.6 -0.2 19.4 -6.7 -5.2 -3.7 -6.2 -42.8 9.0 16.1 0.3 -0.8 -11.5 0.5 9.5 1.5 5.1 11.0 4.2 6.2 3.0 -2.6 -10.7 -3.8 3.1 -0.2 3.3 10.1 -2.7 0.4 3.3 4.8 -3.4 -2.0 20.4 7.8 Automotive Products Consumer Goods Other Nonagric Exports 2.7 -2.5 0.0 -2.8 6.1 -7.7 -4.3 -4.7 6.4 -7.9 3.7 0.2 3.0 4.0 -3.7 6.5 4.5 3.0 0.6 -3.5 -2.4 0.2 1.4 -1.5 10.6 6.5 -4.6 -1.4 10.7 -2.6 -2.8 -7.4 -2.3 5.1 5.7 5.0 -4.6 -11.4 -3.8 1.4 -4.1 2.1 1.1 -6.7 1.9 4.5 12.2 3.8 -6.3 2.9 1.6 -1.5 -2.3 -1.9 -0.6 -2.5 1.1 -5.9 -23.5 -2.2 0.6 0.7 -1.3 -29.7 1.9 1.7 2.5 -9.5 -29.8 4.1 -2.2 -25.0 4.5 -0.1 -2.1 4.6 -7.5 9.0 5.3 4.9 1.3 -18.8 4.5 8.1 1.8 -9.7 -13.5 -7.5 0.7 -0.1 1.0 IMPORTS, Total (Customs Value) Petroleum (revised, SA) /petroleum oods,Feeds,Beverages -5.8 -1.7 -18.7 8.3 -5.6 Ind Supplies (ex Oil) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds -1.0 -14.2 -4.9 1.3 2.2 -0.8 -6.7 3.0 Automotive Products From Canada From Other Consumer Goods Other Nonpetrol Imports .. .. .. .. .. -3.4 -7.3 .. Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value* Volume (mbd)* Price (S/bbl)* Passenger Car Imports (NSA) from Canada from Japan* from other (residual) -0.2 -4.0 12.8 144.5 -4.7 2.9 3.5 21.1 -43.5 3.8 6.4 30.2 7.5 7.1 2.9 -7.0 -10.5 -5.1 -3.8 8.4 .. .. 6.0 0.5 .. -2.7 -4.5 .. 3.6 2.3 4.3 15.2 -11.5 21.7 25.1 15.4 6.0 13.8 1.9 1.6 0.2 2.4 3.1 1.9 -0.2 4.5 10.4 -9.5 11.9 -3.2 --------------- ------------... ..------------------------------------------------------ -4.8 -8.3 0.4 -4.2 -9.7 -2.2 1.6 3.7 2.7 8.2 124.5 0.9 1.3 9.5 -4.4 -8.2 -5.0 -6.5 10.9 3.2 6.3 -4.1 -0.5 -3.7 -9.1 1.1 -8.2 -12.0 -7.2 -16.9 -10.3 3.7 18.4 -15.6 13.5 -18.6 -39.4 9.5 -20.0 -9.1 -20.2 0.3 -8.0 25.9 18.2 32.6 24.4 -7.0 8.9 -7.8 -22.0 ------------------ --------------- ---------------- 13.5 8.3 3.9 ---------- irevised data. Agricultural Industrial Supplies (primarily cotton and tobacco) are excluded from this line. ----------- 12.3 16.7 10.0 9.6 8.2 --------
@FedFRASER