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Embargoed for release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 18, 2013 Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, September 2013 Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released with the FOMC minutes Percent 2013 Change in real GDP . . . . . 2.0 to 2.3 June projection . . . . . . 2.3 to 2.6 Central tendency1 2014 2015 2016 2.9 to 3.1 3.0 to 3.5 2.5 to 3.3 3.0 to 3.5 2.9 to 3.6 n.a. Unemployment rate. . . . . . 7.1 to 7.3 June projection . . . . . . 7.2 to 7.3 6.4 to 6.8 6.5 to 6.8 5.9 to 6.2 5.8 to 6.2 PCE inflation. . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 to 1.2 June projection . . . . . . 0.8 to 1.2 1.3 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 Core PCE inflation3 . . . . . 1.2 to 1.3 June projection . . . . . . 1.2 to 1.3 1.5 to 1.7 1.5 to 1.8 Variable Longer run 2.2 to 2.5 2.3 to 2.5 2013 1.8 to 2.4 2.0 to 2.6 2014 2.2 to 3.3 2.2 to 3.6 Range2 2015 2.2 to 3.7 2.3 to 3.8 5.4 to 5.9 n.a. 5.2 to 5.8 5.2 to 6.0 6.9 to 7.3 6.9 to 7.5 6.2 to 6.9 6.2 to 6.9 5.3 to 6.3 5.7 to 6.4 5.2 to 6.0 n.a. 5.2 to 6.0 5.0 to 6.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 n.a. 2.0 2.0 1.0 to 1.3 0.8 to 1.5 1.2 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.3 1.6 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.3 n.a. 2.0 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.9 to 2.0 n.a. 1.2 to 1.4 1.1 to 1.5 1.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.3 n.a. 2016 2.2 to 3.5 n.a. Longer run 2.1 to 2.5 2.0 to 3.0 Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The June projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 18–19, 2013. 1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. 2. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. 3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2013–16 and over the longer run Percent Change in real GDP 5 Central tendency of projections Range of projections 4 3 2 1 + 0 1 Actual 2 3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Longer run Percent Unemployment rate 10 9 8 7 6 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Longer run Percent PCE inflation 5 4 3 2 1 + 0 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Longer run Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy Number of participants Appropriate timing of policy firming 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2014 2015 2016 Appropriate pace of policy firming Percent Target federal funds rate at year-end 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 Longer run Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year. In June 2013, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 1, 3, 14, and 1. In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percentage point) of an individual participant’s judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. Explanation of Economic Projections Charts The charts show actual values and projections for three economic variables, based on FOMC participants’ individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy: x Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—as measured from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated, with values plotted at the end of each year. x Unemployment Rate—the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year, with values plotted at the end of each year. x PCE Inflation—as measured by the change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated, with values plotted at the end of each year. Information for these variables is shown for each year from 2008 to 2016, and for the longer run. The solid line, labeled “Actual,” shows the historical values for each variable. The lightly shaded areas represent the ranges of the projections of policymakers. The bottom of the range for each variable is the lowest of all of the projections for that year or period. Likewise, the top of the range is the highest of all of the projections for that year or period. The dark shaded areas represent the central tendency, which is a narrower version of the range that excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year or period. The longer-run projections, which are shown on the far right side of the charts, are the rates of growth, unemployment, and inflation to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time—maybe in five or six years—in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers’ longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy’s normal or trend rate of growth and its normal unemployment rate over the longer run. The longer-run projection shown for inflation is the rate of inflation judged to be most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. Explanation of Policy Path Charts These charts are based on policymakers’ assessments of the appropriate path for the FOMC’s target federal funds rate. The target funds rate is measured as the level of the target rate at the end of the calendar year or in the longer run. Appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices. x In the upper panel, the shaded bars represent the number of FOMC participants who judge that the initial increase in the target federal funds rate (from its current range of 0 to ¼ percent) would appropriately occur in the specified calendar year. x In the lower panel, the dots represent individual policymakers’ assessments of the appropriate federal funds rate target at the end of each of the next several years and in the longer run. Each dot in that chart represents one policymaker’s projection. Please note that for purposes of this chart the responses are rounded to the nearest ¼ percentage point, with the exception that all values below 37.5 basis points are rounded to ¼ percent. These assessments of the timing of the initial increase of the target federal funds rate and the path of the target federal funds rate are the ones that policymakers view as compatible with their individual economic projections.
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