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September 12, 1975 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC September 12, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 grew at a 4½ per cent annual rate in suggest some pick up in is September. August, and data For the August-September period, M1 now projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7 per cent, mid-point of its range of tolerance. also slowed in August, at a 7 and M2 is about the Growth of consumer-type time deposits projected during the August-September period per cent annual rate, somewhat below the lower end of its target of tolerance. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over August-September Period 1/ Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Ranges of Tolerance 4 to 7 Latest Estimates 5.7 8¼ to 10¾ RPD -1½ to 4 5¾ to 7 -3.7 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ Avg. for statement week ending 6.15 Aug. 20 6.23 27 6.06 Sept. 3 10 6.15 These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revision of monetary aggregates that will be published this coming The revisions (based on the April call report) lowered the Thursday. half of 1975 from 5 to 4.1 per cent. rate of growth for M1 in the first The level of M was reduced by $1.3 billion in April and by $1.2 billion All tables on subsequent pages of this on average in the second quarter. report (with the exception of table 1 and 2 following the charts) are based The new and old series are compared in Appendix table IV. on the new series. -2Business loans at banks remained about unchanged (2) in August, following a small July advance, but the volume of commercial and finance company paper outstanding rose $600 million, as the wide differential between the bank prime and commercial paper rates continued to make the paper market relatively attractive. Banks allowed CD's to run off for the seventh straight month, and the bank credit proxy declined. (3) Following the August FOMC meeting, the Desk continued to provide reserves consistent with the Federal funds rate remaining in a range of 6-1/8 to 6-1/4 per cent. On the basis of data for the aggregates that became available after Labor Day, the staff reduced its projection of M1 growth for August-September to the lower part of the Committee's range of tolerance and its projection of M growth below the bottom of the range. 2 In view of the expectation of a substantial strengthening in demands for money and credit over coming months, and the likelihood that a decline in the Federal funds rate may have to be reversed shortly, the Committee concurred on September 5 in the Chairman's recommendation to instruct the Desk to continue aiming at a Federal funds rate in a 6-1/8 to 6-1/4 per cent area, leaning toward the lower figure. In the most recent statement week, the funds rate averaged 6.15 per cent. (4) Treasury bill rates have changed little on balance since the August meeting, even though the Treasury continued to add significantly to the supply of bills. 6.45 per cent. The 3-month bill was most recently trading around Private short-term rates, on the other hand, increased 10-15 basis points, as the demand for funds in the commercial paper market rose. -3(5) Over most of the intermeeting period, yields on Treasury coupon issues edged lower, and corporate bond yields remained about unchanged, reflecting the stability of short-term rates, System purchases of coupon issues in late August, and a lull in the volume of new offerings in both sectors. Municipal yields rose to record levels during the intermeeting period as the financial problems facing New York City continued to cast a pall. However, on September 9, the New York State legislature adopted a financial plan that would avoid a near-term default on the City's outstanding securities and cover the City's cash needs through mid-December. In atmosphere improved and prices of MAC issues strengthened. Treasury's September 10 announcement of its remainder of 1975, however, yields in response, the market Following the sizable cash requirements over the all bond markets adjusted upward. Throughout the intermeeting period, mortgage rates advanced as demands for mortgage funds expanded and lenders became more uncertain as to the cost and availability of savings funds. (6) The Treasury indicated that it would be raising about $44 to $47 billion in the second half of 1975, which is about $3-$6 billion more than previously announced. Allowing for the funds already raised since mid-year, the remaining cash need to be covered between now and year-end appears to be in the $23-$26 billion range. A substantial amount of this will be auctioned between now and the next Committee meeting. The Treasury will raise $1 billion of new cash in the monthly 2-year note auction on September 16, and will offer $2 billion of 29-month notes on September 24. It is also likely that another $5 billion will be auctioned in the note market near the time of the next Committee meeting on October 21. Meanwhile, the Treasury will also be adding to weekly and monthly bill auctions, though in auctions by somewhat lesser amounts than in recent months. the case of the weekly -4(7) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods. -5Calendar Year Twelve Months Past Six Months Past Three Months Past Month Aug. '75 Aug. '75 Aug. '75 Aug. '75 1974 over Aug. '74 over Feb. '75 over May 75 over July '75 8.5 -1.2 -2.0 - -14.4 10.7 8.6 -2.4 -1.7 -11.5 8.9 -0.9 -2.0 0.3 -6.0 M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 4.8 5.0 8.6 8.3 4.1 M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 7.2 8.6 11.2 11.3 6.3 M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 6.8 10.6 14.2 14.2 9.9 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M (M plus CD's) 2 10.6 6.7 5.8 5.8 M (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 9.2 10.4 10.4 5.0 10.2 3.2 3.1 1.7 -4.7 9.2 1.8 4.3 4,3 6.8 2.2 -. 5 -2.4 -2.5 -4.1 Nonbank commercial paper .4 .1 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. -.2 .1 .2 -1.1 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (8) Summarized below for Committee consideration are specifi- cations for three alternative short-run policy courses. More detailed figures--including longer-run growth rates--are presented in the tables on pp. 6a and 6b. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges of tolerance for Sept.-Oct. M1 6½ -8½ 6-8 5½-7½ M 2 8-10 7½-9½ 6-8¾ 2½-4½ 2-4 1½-3½ 5¾-7 6 6½-8 RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) (9) -7½ Following relatively slow growth in the July-August period, in September and October M1 is expected to expand at rates more nearly consistent with the underlying strength of transactions demands. Deposit expansion in the previous months had been dampened as the public brought deposit holdings into a more normal relationship with income and interest rates, following the sharp bulge in late spring resulting from special Treasury payments. This process now appears to have been completed. Under alternative A --which assumes the same Federal funds rate range for the forthcoming intermeeting period as that adopted at the last meeting--M 1 is expected to rise at an annual rate in the 6½-3½ per cent area over this and the next month on average. M 2 growth is also likely to accelerate, mainly reflecting the more rapid expansion on demand deposits. -6aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 August September October 294.5 296.2 298.2 294.5 296.1 298.0 1975 QII OIII QIV 289.1 294.7 300.4 1976 QI QII 305.5 310.2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 294.5 296.1 297.8 653.9 658.6 663.7 653.9 658.4 663.2 653.9 658.2 662.4 1064.8 1073.5 1082.4 1064.8 1073.3 1081.5 1064.8 1073.0 1080.3 289.1 294.7 300.2 289.1 294.7 299.8 637.0 654.3 668.9 637.0 654.3 667.8 637.0 654.2 666.5 1029.7 1064.8 1090.9 1029.7 1064.7 1088.9 1029.7 1064.6 1086.6 304.8 308.5 304.1 307.3 682.3 694.6 679.8 689.6 676,7 684.0 1113.3 1133.6 1108.7 1125.2 1103.4 1116.1 Levels Growth Rates 1975 September October 6.9 8.1 6.5 7.7 6.5 6.9 8.6 9.3 8.3 8.7 7.9 7.7 9.8 9.9 QIII 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.7 6.9 10.9 8.9 10.9 8.3 10.8 7.5 13.6 1976 QI Q11 6.8 6.2 6.1 4.9 5.7 42 8.0 7.2 7.2 5.8 6.1 4.3 QII '75-QIV '75 7.8 7.7 7.4 10.0 9.7 9.3 QIV '75-QII '76 6.5 5.5 5.1 7.7 6.5 5.3 QII '75-Q0I '76 7.3 6.7 6.3 9.0 8.3 7.4 QIV 9.2 9.2 8.2 9.8 13.6 9.1 13.6 8.3 8.2 7.3 7.3 6.0 6.2 4.6 11.9 7.8 10.1 9.6 11.5 11.1 6.7 5.4 9.3 8.4 MEMO Committee Target Ranges 84-10~ 10-12 - 6b Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy v Alt. A 1975 QIII QIV 1976 QI QII Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 731.9 736.0 740.3 731.9 735.9 740.1 731.9 735.7 739.7 1142.9 1150.9 1159.0 1142.9 1150.8 1158.4 1142.9 1150.5 1157.5 503.3 504.6 507.2 503.3 504.5 503.3 504.4 507.0 723.0 733.5 745.4 723.0 733.4 744.7 1115.8 1144.0 1168.0 1115.8 1144.0 1166.5 1115.8 1143.9 1164.8 503.0 504.4 511.2 503.0 510.9 503.0 504.3 510.6 762.0 777.3 QII Alt. B 723.0 733.5 746.0 Levels 1975 August September Octnber 760.2 773.4 758.1 769.9 1193.1 1216.3 1189.0 1209.0 1184.9 1202.1 520.6 527.9 519.5 525.5 518.4 523.8 Growth Rates 1975 September October 6.7 7.0 6.6 6.8 6.2 6.5 8.4 8.4 QII QIV 5.8 6.8 5.8 6.5 5.8 6.2 10.1 8.4 QII 7.9 6.9 7.2 6.2 QII '75-QIV '75 6.2 QIV '75-QII '76 7.5 QII '75-QII '76 1976 QI 7.5 8.3 7.9 8.0 7.3 507.1 504.4 3.1 6.2 2.9 6.2 2.6 6.2 1.1 5.4 1.1 5.2 1.0 5.0 10.1 7.9 10.1 7.3 8.6 7.8 7.7 6.7 6.9 5.8 7.4 5.6 6.7 4.6 6.1 4.2 6.0 9.4 9.1 8.8 3.3 3.1 3.0 6.8 8.3 7.3 6.4 6.5 5.7 5.2 6.5 9.0 8.4 7.7 5.0 4.5 4.1 However, growth in consumer-type time and savings deposits also is expected to strengthen a little, at least temporarily, from its reduced August rate. (10) If Federal funds over the next few weeks were to continue trading in the recent 6-1/8--6¾ per cent range, market interest rates generally would be likely to show little further net change. Interest rates on Treasury securities--particularly bills and short-intermediate issues--have been adjusting upward recently in response to the cash need and financing package announced by the Treasury on Wednesday. Some further yield increases could occur, though, as the new securities are auctioned, with about $8 billion of new cash to be raised through auctions of coupon issues between now and around the time of the next meeting. (11) Business borrowing in the corporate bond market over the weeks ahead is likely to be at a slower rate than in the first half of this year, though picking up from the reduced August pace and still quite sizable by historical standards. The prospective volume of state and local government issues remains relatively large. The municipal market could be stabilized, for a time, by the assistance package for New York City enacted by the New York State legislature. It is possible that the period of calm may last into the fall, but there are still substantial uncertainties in the market, typified by the slow reception initially accorded the recent offering of generously priced short-term New York State issues. (12) Given the large amount of Treasury borrowing that is being compressed into the next month or so, as well as the still sensitive -8state of the municipal market, a significant rise in the Federal funds rate--for example, toward the upper end of the 5-3/4--7 per cent range of alternative A--would likely lead to substantial further yield advances. Interest rate increases would be accentuated if strengthening credit demands on banks from businesses and consumers were at the same time reducing bank willingness to add to Treasury security holdings. (13) in While alternative A basically assumes little the Federal funds rate between now and the next meeting, believes the funds rate would have to rise later in or no change the staff the fall if the monetary aggregates are to remain on track with the Committee's longerrun objectives. A funds rate in the 7-7 per cent area would be expected by late fall, assuming a longer-run M objective characterized by 7 1 per cent growth from QII '75 to QII '76 (the assumption of the Green Book GNP projection), with further funds rate increases anticipated in the first half of next year. Attainment of a longer-run 6 per cent annual rate of growth in M1 would be likely to require more prompt and intensive pressure on the funds market. In view of the further interest rate increases expected given either of these two M growth rates,we have assumed, in 1 working out all of the alternatives in this bluebook, a small upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceilings around year-end of ¼ to ½ percentage point on time certificates. is With this assumption, longer-run M growth 2 projected toward the low end of the Committee's announced target range under alternative A. -9(14) Alternative C encompasses an immediate substantial tightening of the money market and is characterized by a Federal funds rate range for the intermeeting period of 6 -8 per cent, centering on 7¼ per cent. With growth in nonborrowed reserves more constrained, member bank borrowing under this alternative would be likely to rise to $400 million or more, given the 6 per cent discount rate. Nonetheless, growth of M in 1 September-October would probably be reduced somewhat, area. to the 6-8 per cent Interest rates generally would rise quite sharply during the next month under this alternative, particularly given the very large Treasury financing demands described in paragraph (6). rate to [8]per cent or a little A rise in the 3-month bill above would not be unlikely, and the yield on 2-year Treasury notes could exceed 9 per cent. (15) Such rate levels would undoubtedly divert savings flows away from banks and thrift institutions. The staff would expect the annual rate of growth in consumer-type time deposits at banks and deposits at thrift institutions to drop to around a 7-8 per cent rate in October. Pressures on such flows would be intensified later in the fall and early next year, when further increases in the Federal funds rate would be expected. (16) Under alternative C mortgage market conditions may be expected to tighten rather promptly, with rates rising further over the next few weeks and with lenders becoming less willing to make loan commitments. Under alternative A, and to a certain extent under alternative B (to be discussed below), strains on the mortgage market would be more delayed and less severe. The assumed adjustment in Regulation Q ceilings would temper the impact of upward market rate adjustments on savings inflows to thrift institutions after year-end, but the mortgage market would still pressure next year. be expected to come under additional -10(17) Alternative B contemplates a modest tightening of money market conditions between now and the next Committee meeting, as indicated by the 6-3/4 per cent mid-point of a 6-7 funds rate range. per cent Federal As in the other alternatives, additional tightening would appear to be necessary later this year and early next year. The staff has assumed that the Federal funds rate under this alternative would probably rise to the 7 -8 per cent area by late fall. This particular funds rate pattern would be consistent with a one-year growth rate for M1 between QII '75 and QII '76 downward revision of $1.2 billion in second quarter of 1975, average level of M1 in 6 of 6-3/4 per cent. Given the the average level of M1 in such a growth rate would result in the the same the second quarter of 1976 as was implied by the per cent growth path presented in the previous bluebook. -11Proposed directive (18) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectations that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that the Committee will not be reconsidering its present 5 to 7 per cent target range--with which all of the short-run operating alternatives discussed in the preceding sections are consistent--until the October meeting. "Monetary aggregates" proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. (19) Should the Committee desire to formulate the directive in terms of bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. These alternative "money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "money market" proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve] MAINTAIN ABOUT THE PREVAILING bank reserve and money -12- market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED months the over aggregates monetary in growth moderate with consistent [DEL: ahead]. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED the over aggregates monetary in growth moderate with consistent [DEL: ahead]. months CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS IH-FOMC 9/12/75 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -Sept - 33 t I J A 1975 S28 M M i J J 1974 S S D M M i. J J S S 1 I I J D D 1975 RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios S 0 CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 9/12/75 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -300 305 - 280 300 7% growth for August-September I - 280 I ~~ ~ iLI~ L iiLLLI L1ae 295 growth BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 660 290 I 1875 J I J A 1975 1 I S -1 0 9/12/75 CHART 3 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 520 500 480 46e i RESERVES 0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39 37 TOTAL - 35 33 V V I L L I L I 1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios 8/15/75 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT 14 INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT - 13 SFEDERAL FUNDS 10 ,L - 11 FR DISCOUNT RATE B 9 - 1974 1975 1974 1975 7 1974 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 SEPT. BANK RESERVES 12, 1975 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) RESERVES AVAILABLE RESERVES AVAILABLE o FOR PRIVATE Period NONBANK DEPOSITS N A SA SA5 1 REQUIRED RESERVES AGGREGATE RESERVES Total Reserves 3 3 ADJUSTED _SEASONALLY _ Nonborrowed Reserves 4 Total Required 1 5 Private Demand 6 6 Other Time CD's and Gov't. and Interbank Nondeposits Deposits 7 9 7 1 8 1 9 MONTHLY LEVELS-tMILLIONS 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. PERCENT ANNUAL 32,995 32.938 32,772 (32,735) 32,734 32,812 32,524 (32,548) 34,872 34,991 34,571 (34,585) 34,645 34,690 34,359 (34,275) 34,671 34,803 34,372 (34,437) 199799 19,847 19,796 (19,874) ( 8,665 8,613 8,698 8.749) 4,330 4,290 4,079 ( 3.965) 19877 2,053 1,799 ( 1,850) GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--IST OTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. -4.7 0.5 -3.2 -8.3 1.2 -3.3 -1.4 -0.2 -4.3 -7.7 1.2 -2.7 -4.2 11.7 1.5 -7.6 -9.2 3.9 -1.4 -2.5 -1.3 -0.9 -3.7 -1.1 11.5 -2.8 -2.8 -0.7 -3.6 -1.2 -3.3 8.0 5.7 -0.1 -12.0 -1.7 4.6 -14.9 ( 2.3) ( -6.3) f QUARTERLY-AV 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. MONTHLY ( 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. AUG.-SEPT. 9.1 -2.1 -6.0 -1.4) 10.3 4.1 -14.4 0.S) I ( ( -3.7) ( ( -7.2) 8.8 4.8 1.6 -11.5 -2.9) -7.0) ( 24.3 2.9 -3.1 4.7) 0.8) -6.9 -7.2 11.8 7.0) 9.5) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--JULY 9 16 23 30 33,025 32,888 32,753 33,003 32,598 32,766 32,769 33,025 34.924 34.916 34,896 35,077 34,702 34,714 34,514 34,824 34,791 34,843 34,693 34.796 19,962 19 866 19,675 19.865 8,600 8,618 8,604 8,622 4,330 4,330 49270 4,235 19899 2*028 2,143 2,074 AUG. 6 13 20 27 329885 32,617 32,262 32,633 32,551 34,751 32 ,63 32,853 32,758 34,515 34,571 34,152 34,483 34,243 34,552 34,315 34,476 34,216 19,857 19 749 19,890 19t688 8.653 8,677 8,696 8,744 4,176 4.121 4,057 4.027 1,867 1,768 1.834 1,758 3 32.852 32,609 34,613 34,391 34.292 19,811 8,727 3 993 1,761 SEPT. NOTE: 34,331 34,687 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF AUG. 19, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. RANGE OF -1.5 TO -4.0 PERCENT FOR THE AUG.-SEPT. PERIOD. Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) MONETARY AGGREGATES CLASS.FOMC SEPT. ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period Proxy Deposits Total Than CD's CD's 2 1 US Govt (M2) (M) Adjusted Credit 3 4 5 6 7 TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other Nondeposit Sources of Funds 8 MONTHLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. 294.0 294.5 295.6 (297.3) 647.3 651.7 655.2 (659.9) 507.5 505.3 503.3 (504.5) 2.4 11.0 4.5 8.4 13.3 7.8 3.1 7.5 -2.4 10.1 6.8 2.5 13.6 15.3 10.4 -2.2 -25.4 -31.9 1.0 9.0 7.6 6.4 11.3 10.8 4.1 5.2 1.1 12.8 5.3 4.6 11.1 13.4 13.4 19.2 -24.0 -31.6 11.6 5.5 -4.6 6.61 I 19.7 13.2 8.1 9.71 ( -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 -9.21 1.0) 1 8.9) ( -34.3) ( 3.8 2.5 2.9 2.2) 437.3 439.3 437.6 (440.0) 353.3 357.2 359.6 1362.5) ( 84.1 82.1 78.0 77.4) ( 7.0 6.8 7.0 7.0) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. OUARTERLY-AV 1975--1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. MONTHLY 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. ( AUG.-SEPT. ( 17.8 2.0 4.5 6.9) 5.7) 1 ( 15.1 -5.2 -4.7 2.9) 7.51 ( 18.8 8.2 6.4 8.6) 4 -0.9) 1 I WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLIOMS 1975--JULY 9 16 23 30 293.5 295.3 295.0 293.4 649.7 652.5 652. 651.7 504.6 506.3 505.9 503.9 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.0 439.7 440.1 439.5 438.8 356.1 357.2 357.9 358.3 83.6 82.9 81.6 80.5 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.0 AUG. 6 13 20 27 295.6 294.1 294.9 207.0 654.2 653.T 654.4 656.7 503.8 502.7 503.1 504.0 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1 438.0 438.2 437.4 436.7 358.6 359.5 359.5 359.7 79.4 78.7 77.9 77.0 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.3 296.3 657.3 504.0 3.6 438.0 361.0 77.1 7.1 SEPT. 3 P MA NOTE: DATA -A- I SHOWN IN PARENTHESES I ARE CURRENT I PROJECTIONS. I P - PRELIMINARY 12, 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Open Market Operations 1/ Bills Coupon Agency & Accept Issues Issues Net (2) (3) Open Market RP's (1) (4) Total Operations (5) 8 Member Bank Borrowing Req. res. against available res. 5/ vailable Factors U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) reserves5/ (8) (7) (6) Target In Reserve Categories Other 4/ (9) (10) (11) -499 -773 -344 13 -1,627 -774 -670 -495 54 1 -96 412 -734 580 495 -170 215 1975-Feb. Mar. -1,015 112 316 1,301 295 207 714 -1,758 309 -136 -1,241 53 -243 -41 Apr. May June 1,319 197 -413 1,070 50 958 -2 -97 -6 5,442 -3,357 -1,855 7,829 -3,207 -1,317 2,229 5,064 -3,165 4 -50 211 July Aug. Sept. -2,302 -371 -274 -2 313 -623 1,007 -2,926 1,222 -832 -1,332 -10 -51p 2 15 624 -1 -4,183 -3,545 1,832 683 -1,740 345 430 9 16 -192 -214 - --- -5,357 5,094 -5,549 4,880 -2,692 -1,599 -649 -20 2,472 1,871 -250 84 -619 168 23 -1,206 -- 569 -638 505 180 -651 31 3 30 -337 - -- -300 -637 -128 -129 358 -155 256 6 13 20 27 -382 -573 5 321 966* -566* -399* -- ---313 -3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632 -3,238** 1,349** 2,673** -1,998 -1,154** -1,521** 1,865** 575 -73 -2 26 68 781 1,134 -1,425 2 -79 p -37 36 95 -67p 409 -425 371 -82p 3 10 17 24 -113 -223 273 -- -1 -1 2,225 -3,833 2,384 -4,057 747 -1,857 -50 163 -633p 1,208p 6p 31p 58p -517p -1,767 -5,747 3.438 - 553 p 206 167 3 -12 p -456 -1,466p Oct. 1975--July Aug. Sept. 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ -1 Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, 5/ Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. includes redemptions in regular bill F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, auctions. and other F.R. accounts. Target change for Aug. & Sept. reflects the target adopted at the Aug. 19, 1975 FOMC Meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. ** Reflects special certificate purchase. (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.) * Special certificate P- Preliminary. -325 -45 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II --FOMC SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Federal Agencies Net Treasury Bills Period Net Change Change 2/ Net Purchases 3/ Within Over 1 - 5 __1-year - 1972 1973 1974 Net Purchases 4/ Over Within 5 - 10 10 Total 1-year 1 - 5 539 500 434 167 129 196 1,582 1,415 1,747 46 120 439 592 400 1,665 253 244 659 168 101 318 1,059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 -1,358 46 - 154 874 945 43 160 49 102 232 118 215 109 62 131 54 73 45 555 302 492 106 195 138 430 726 371 229 165 130 103 117 53 870 1,203 691 2,188 2,620 1,402 - 69 169 285 61 -2,093 33 1,054* 625 312 2,024* Qtr. II 1,086 218 1,135* 454 273 2,079 1975--Mar. 115 19 620* 451 212 1,301* _- Apr. May June 1,295 143 352 148 50 20 485 650* 274 180 164 109 1,070 50r 958* - -- July -2,305 -- -- -- - 13 150 64 47 274r 41 4 497* --- 67 --- 57 --- 624* ---- -- -369 2 9 16 23 30 5 188 208 -1,199 -337 6 13 20 27 - Sept. 3 10 Total 5/ 789 579 797 1975--Qtr. I Aug. Total 87 207 320 - 1975--July 10 RP's Net 6/ 490 7,232 1,280 1974--Qtr. II Qtr. III Qtr. IV Aug. 5 - 10 Outright Holdings -- -- - --- 13 -- 150 -- 373 565 -- - 312 -116 -200 -- -- 64 -- 47 -- 2 166 584 508 -- -2 3,076 230 42 210 1,620 -1,758 2,387 150 539 5,442 -3,357 -1,855 - -2 - - _ -- -2,304 -623 229 49 34 353 216 1,007 -- -- - 638 192 -4,183 -5,357 5,094 569 -300 .- --- -- - - --- --- --- -- - - -- --- -- -- -- -- -- 41 229 49 34 353 - --- -- --- - 273 - - - 53 -2 --- __ . - - -2 358 986 238 -214 -1,207 -337 584 394 634 -3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632 159 -223 2,225 -3,833 -1,138 - 17 24 .. . . . d Change from and-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). Revised to include short-term coupons acquired in exchange for maturing hills. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds (3) Excess** Reserves Member Rank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Total Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others (7) (6) (8) (9) (1) Coupon Issues (2) 1974--High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 253 0 628 -168 3,906 647 176 13 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 1975--High Low 6,094 1,586 2,845 532 464 0 577 -50 871 18 40 5 -7,387 -1,757 -11,390 1974--Aug. Sept. 1,758 2,309 398 552 33 23 197 180 3,337 3,282 164 139 -4,231 -4,235 - 9,224 - 8,250 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,174 2,900 2,985 654 1,608 1,836 25 83 175 197 205 258 1,813 117 67 32 -4.602 -6,322 -5,960 - 8,689 - 9,715 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 97 144 307 147 198 195 398 14 11 7 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 Apr. May 1,617 1,752 1,351 35 91 89 143 155 201 110 6 9 11 -4,079 -3,965 -5,821 -10,426 June 2,737 4,744 5,201 July Aug. 4,231 *4,020 1,246 *1,204 60 44 188 211p 259 180p 17 -5.546 -3,964 - 9,896 - 9,966 1975--July 4,197 4,029 4,426 4.237 4,241 1,791 1,310 1,064 1,295 963 58 36 74 72 63 396 133 73 203 281 871 222 202 382 253 15 13 16 19 20 -5,652 -6,593 -6,582 -4,759 -4,306 - 8,267 3,958 4,007 *4,045 *4,618 1,995 1,150 96 33 4 0 199 16 211 299p 180 179 204 2 2 7 p 29 35 35 40p -4,082 -4,988 -3,672 -3,313 - 9,547 1 48p 321p 47p 222p 385p 51p 4 5 p -2,838p -4,928p - Period Bills Aug. 6 13 20 27 Sept. 3 10 17 24 NOTE: *4,294 *5,070 * 769 *1,152 *1,103 * 894 (5) 1,252 727 147 96 66 227 37 p - 6,046 - 8,070 -10,169 -10,302 - 9,567 - 9,344 -10,124 -10,928 - 9,773 - 8,785 -10,640 - 9,733 - 9,870 9 3 99 , p -10.293p Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserves less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) -1 - Short-Term Treasury Bills Period I Federal Funds (1) I 90-day (2) 1-vear (3) Short-Term90-119 Day Commercial I -1 Panor -'-- (4) Aaa Utility New Recently CD's New Issue-NYC li- Ilav (5) I I . ol--I1 L' n '"'l Issue (6) (7) Offered (8) Long-Term Municipall U.S. Government Bond (20-yr. Constant IBuae (9) " Maturity) (10) FNMA Auctions Yelrs Yields (11) 1974--High Low 13.55 8.45 9.63 6.53 9.54 6.39 12.25 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 7.15 5.16 8.68 7.40 10.59 7.88 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 7.02 5.02 7.26 5.46 9.34 5.38 9.00 5.25 9.00 9.71 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.06 7.40 6.27 8.57 7.63 9.70 8.78 1974--Aug. Sept. 12.01 8.96 8.06 8.88 8.52 11.79 11.34 11.36 11.69 11.19 11.91 11.38 10.07 10.38 10.19 10.30 6.69 6.76 8.60 8.60 10.25 10.58 Oct. Nov. Dec. 10.06 9.45 8.53 7.46 7.47 7.15 7.59 7.29 6.79 9.55 8.95 9.18 9.35 8.78 9.00 9.33 10.23 9.34 9.56 6.57 8.84 10.16 9.21 9.53 8.37 7.99 7.91 10.22 9.87 9.53 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 6.27 5.56 5.70 7.39 6.36 7.43 6.00 5.88 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 8.97 9.35 9.45 9.09 6.82 9.38 6.39 6.74 7.88 7.71 7.99 9.25 8.93 8.82 Apr. May June 5.49 5.22 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.11 5.85 5.44 5.34 6.03 5.63 5.55 5.61 5.23 5.34 5.51 9.67 9.63 9.20 9.66 9.65 9.33 6.94 6.97 6.94 8.36 8.22 8.04 9.06 9.27 9.09 July Aug. 6.10 6.14 6.13 6.44 6.64 7.16 6.32 6.59 6.05 6.31 6.25 6.63 9.42 9.45 9.43 9.49 7.06 7.17 8.17 8.50 9.14 9,41 2 9 16 23 30 6.31 6.06 5.93 6.14 6.25 5.94 6.06 6.04 6.19 6.25 6.45 6.51 6.49 6.72 6.83 6.20 6.28 6.25 6.35 6.38 5.88 6.00 6.00 6.13 6.25 6.00 6.13 6.13 6.50 6.50 9.62 9.38 9.53 9.25 9.37 9.30 9.45 9.57 9.33 6.96 6.98 7.09 7.22 7.09 8.13 9.07 8.16 8.13 8.18 8.27 9.10 6 13 20 27 6.09 6.08 6.15 6.23 6.37 6.99 7.15 6.44 6.52 7.23 7.26 6.50 6.58 6.63 6.63 6.38 6.25 6.25 6.38 6.50 6.41 9.44 9.43 9.53 9.49 9.51 9.49 9.54 3 10 17 24 6.06 6.15 6.40 6.39 7.08 7.06 6.69 6.75 6.38 6 38 6.75 6.88 6.19 2 . 1p 6.33 6.46 7.03 7.23 6 75 6.75 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. July Aug. Sept. Dally--Sept. 4 11 - un,". NOTE: 6 6.06 5.70 5.67 8.72 6.63 6.63 6.75 9.63p 9.35 6.61 7.05 9.41 9.52p 7.34 7.40 9.17 8.49 9.50 7.16 7.17 7.18 7.18 8.43 8.50 8.53 9.32 8.48 9.50 8.47 8 57p 9.70 8.46 n.a. -~------- Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Preliminary. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Period Total Non borrowed borrowed 1 Available to Support Pt Deposits 2 3 ANNUALLV: 1972 10.8 7.9 8.5 7.5 7.3 10.7 10.1 9.2 8.9 10.8 5.9 1973 1974 0.4 21.0 Ad Credit proxy Total Loans and Invest. M M 12, 1975 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 8 9 10 11 12 13.2 8.8 6.8 12.5 11.6 10.6 14.0 10.6 9.0 7.9 5.4 13.3 7.5 10.9 6.7 11.0 6.5 12.9 7.5 10.7 9.8 ments 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 12.6 4.9 1.3 1.4 0.2 T. MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVES 1/ RESERVES SE P 14.6 13.5 9.2 8.7 6.1 4.8 11, 8. 7. 12.9 11.2 9.1 12.9 11.9 8.9 SEMI-ANNUALLY: IST HAL 1974 2ND HALF 1974 8.7 10.5 1ST HALF 1975 -3.6 -0.8 -2.1 10.6 QUARTERLY: 39D QTR. 4TH QTR. 1974 1974 8.2 3.6 IST OTR, 1975 2N OQTR. 1975 5.5 36.0 9.1 0.8 6.7 4.2 7.3 -1.0 1.0 5.3 4.2 6.7 3.9 6.9 5.8 9.0 4.9 8.4 5.6 8.1 6.3 6.5 4.3 2.3 0.8 11.2 7.6 13.4 9.9 15.6 6.3 8.6 8.8 12.3 7.9 12.0 7.6 11.8 6.0 6.2 5.2 9.0 7.3 7.2 -8.3 1.2 -1.4 -0.2 -4.7 0.5 3.1 7.5 11.3 1.4 1.2 27.3 12.1 2.5 9.9 3.5 10.6 0.2 3.5 3.9 11.5 -2.8 -1.4 -2.5 4.1 5.2 0.1 3.5 -0.3 8.6 -3.9 6.8 -3.1 -1.6 15.5 -5.6 10.8 7.8 6.4 4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6 11.1 -6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.4 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4 7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.7 10.3 4.1 -14.4 19.4 -19.1 -4.1 9.1 -13.2 4.8 1.6 3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.1 -5.2 -4.7 3.5 2.8 6.7 -11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 4.1 UUARTERLY-AV: 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR. 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 1974 1974 1975 1975 -0.9 -3.7 5. 5.8 11.2 7.8 13.7 7.4 6.6 10.6 3.8 3.0 7.1 7.7 5.9 4.4 4.4 9.8 5.7 11.4 3.7 4.0 8.0 5.6 9.9 13.9 11.7 14.9 19.7 12.5 9.8 6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.1 7.6 6.8 8.0 9.9 MONTHLY: 1974--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. P 9.6 51.9 18.5 34.7 -11.5 -1.5 -2.7 6., 6.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.0 2.4 3.8 0.9 5.3 6.4 4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7 2.5 8.4 11.6 7.3 13.4 19.2 8.2 6.3 10.8 7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.6 9.5 4.8 4.2 4.4 8.8 5.8 9.4 5.3 5.0 8.5 3.6 7.3 8.2 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.1 9.3 5.1 7.5 6.9 8.5 9.5 9.8 15.7 9.0 5.1 - NOTES: RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY. 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEPT. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CREDIT MEASURES -BANK RESERVES! Period l Tota Total Non No, borrowed Available to SUP rt Adl and proxy 1 1972 1973 30,321 32,711 2 29,278 31,413 3 28.039 30,610 1975 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Total Loans Credit Invest Deposits 12, M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 7 MI 8 9 10 11 12 985.5 1095.4 1133.6 M7 ments 4 406.4 448.7 5 559., 634.4 255.8 271.5 525.7 '72.2 844.9 919.6 569.1 636.0 a3ee. 98341 1013,1 MONTHLY: 197 4--AUG. SEPT. 34,988 35,187 31.652 31,904 33,064 33,278 487.5 35,097 35,050 35.503 33,284 33.798 34,776 33,236 33,160 33,341 488.3 1975--JAM. FEB. MAR. 35.73T 34,925 34,764 35,339 34,777 34,658 33.341 33.103 32,951 APR. MAY JUNE 35,003 34,574 34,872 34,892 34,508 34,645 OCT. NOV. DEC. JULY AUG. P 34,991 34.571 34,690 34,359 699.2 695.2 280.5 280.7 601.9 603.4 962.6 965.0 685.7 688.2 1046.4 1049.9 1167.2 1171.5 1209.9 1214.9 491.2 494.3 696.q 697.4 691.9 281.6 283.6 284.4 607.6 611.6 613.5 970.? 976.9 981.7 693.8 697.1 703.7 1056.9 1062.4 1072.0 1180.1 1185.8 1195.1 495.8 495.7 498.1 1223.5 1227.2 1234.7 693.9 695.5 699.4 281.6 282.4 285.0 614.8 619.1 625.1 986.3 994.4 1005.9 707.6 711.2 714.8 1079.1 1086.5 1095.7 33.032 32,74 32,995 1203.3 1210.3 1218.6 500.2 501.2 507.5 1242.4 1249.5 1258.3 700R.8 703.0 703.5 285.8 288.5 293.0 628.9 635.9 646.1 1015.7 1028.3 1045.2 717.3 721.5 730.1 1104.1 1113.9 1129.3 32,938 32,772 1228.3 1238.5 1255.1 505.3 503.3 1268.3 1278.7 1295.4 706.6 710.6 293.5 294.5 650.5 653.9 1056.1 1064.7 732.6 731.9 1138.2 1142.8 1264.8 1270.2 1305.1 1310.6 489.2 WEEKLY: 1975--JULY AUG. 9 16 23 30 34,924 34,916 34,896 35.O77 34,702 34,714 34,514 34,824 33.025 32,888 32,753 33,003 504.6 506.3 505.9 503.9 6 34,751 34.331 34,687 34,515 34,571 34.152 34,483 34,243 32.885 32,563 32.853 32,758 503.8 502.7 34,391 32.852 13 20 27P SEPT. NOTES: 1/ 3P S34,613 292.6 294.3 294.0 292.4 648m5 651*3 651.7 650.5 732.1 734.2 733.3 731.0 504.0 294.6 293.1 293.9 296.6 653.0 652.4 653.2 655.5 732.4 731.1 731.1 732.4 504.2 295.2 656.0 733.0 503.1 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER RELATED INSTITUTIONS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGSOF BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKU.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A SEPT. 12, 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency Demand osits Total me Deposits Deposits__ 1 2 ANNUALLY: 3 Mutual Savings Bank ank Credit Union Union and S & L Time Other Other Cns Shares CD's CD's Savings I Inds B u Securities B Shares 6 7 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) Short Short Term Pacer . Gov't ICommercia 8 8 9 9 10 10 8.2 8.3 10,2 8.9 5.5 3.1 18.0 13.9 11.8 31.0 45.3 41.5 0.5 30.9 15.7 15.0 38.8 3.4 IST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 9.7 10.2 5.2 1.0 13.0 9.9 54.9 19.2 11.2 12.5 -5.4 1ST HALF 1975 9.7 5.8 22.5 2.3 3.5 1972 1973 1974 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 22.1 -13.7 QUARTERLY: 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1974 1974 8.0 12.1 -1.1 3.2 7.6 17.2 12.0 25.9 18.2 4.0 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 1975 1975 9.4 9.8 0.2 11.4 20.4 23.5 -2.2 -25.4 -7.3 12.2 1.0 6.0 2.4 1.7 10.9 10.6 31.8 15.2 19.1 10.8 20.8 -9.4 -3.3 2.0 -20.2 8.1 25.6 -34.2 OUARTERLY-AV: 3AD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1974 1974 6.8 11.6 1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 1975 1975 8.9 9.3 -1.7 8.9 17.6 22.5 19.2 -24.0 1974--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 13.0 7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9 -3.3 -1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7 9.1 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2 2.9 14.3 19.8 -9.7 67.4 14.4 12.2 24.1 -2.0 -9.9 31.8 19.7 2.8 -55.3 -52.2 1975--JAN. FEB MAR APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. P 5.3 10.6 12.2 1.7 -13.9 3.9 10.6 5.0 10.5 18.6 1.1 3.2 17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 20.4 28.1 23.5 26.9 31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -2805 -59.9 15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 15.9 9.8 7.8 -15.2 6.1 12*2 9.1 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 MONTHLY: NOTES: 12.1 15.4 8.4 8.4 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. APPENDIX TABLE 2-B SEPT. 12, 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Perod Currency Demand Total Tome STTime Other ____Depos D Cs Mutual Savings Bank Credit Union CD's S and S Shares 2 3 4 5 Non Te C ia Securities Shares,_ 1 Shrt Svr dposit US Gov't Funs 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ANNUALLVY 1972 1973 56.9 61.6 198.9 209.9 313.8 364.5 269.9 300.7 297.5 322.8 21.6 24.6 43.9 63.8 57.0 59.9 39.8 52.1 27.6 38.3 4.3 6.6 5.6 3.9 65.5 65.9 215.0 214.8 405.2 407.5 321.5 322.7 134.2 335.0 26.5 26.7 83.8 84.8 61.7 62.0 59.1 59.7 42.6 43.3 9.0 8.6 6.2 6.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. 66.5 67.4 67.9 215.2 216.2 216.5 412.1 413.5 419.3 325.9 328.0 329.1 336.2 338.2 340.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 86.2 85.5 90.3 62.3 62.6 62.8 60.9 60.8 60.3 43.4 41.4 39.6 7.9 7.6 8.4 3.7 4.6 1.9 1975--JAN. FER. MAR. 68.2 68.7 69.4 213.4 213.7 215.6 426.0 428.8 429.9 333.2 336.7 340.1 343.6 346.9 352.0 27.9 28.3 28.9 92.7 92.1 89.8 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.1 60.3 59.2 39.1 39.3 39.7 7.6 6.5 6.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 APR. MAY JUNE 69.5 70.2 71.1 216.3 218.3 721.9 431.5 432.9 437.1 343.1 347.4 353.1 357.4 362.5 368.6 29.4 29.9 30.6 88.4 85.5 84.1 64.1 64.4 64.7 60.2 60.2 61.0 40.0 40.2 40.3 6.7 7.4 7.0 2.1 2.1 3.8 JULY AUG. P 71.3 71.9 222.1 222.6 439.1 437.4 357.0 359.4 374.4 378.9 31.2 31.9 82.1 78.0 65.1 65.5 61.5 61.9 40.3 40*4 6.8 7.0 2.5 2.9 9 16 23 30 71.5 71.3 71.4 71.4 221.1 223.0 222.6 220.9 439.5 439.9 439.3 438.6 355.9 357.0 357.7 358.2 83.6 82.9 81.6 80.5 6.5 6.6 7.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.0 6 13 20 27P 71.8 71.9 71.8 72.0 222.8 221.2 222.1 223.9 437.8 438.0 437.3 436.5 358.4 359.3 359.3 359.5 79.4 78.7 77.9 77.0 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1 3P 72.0 223.2 437.8 360.8 77.1 7.2 3.6 0INTHLYr 1974--AUG. SEPT. WEEKLY: 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. 7.0 Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series) M1 M2 M3 M Q M Q M Q I 3.4 6.8 7.3 9.1 8.8 10.4 II 11.3 7.3 10.6 8.6 10.5 9.1 III 0.6 5.5 5.6 7.8 5.2 7.5 IV 8.7 5.0 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.1 6.3 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.0 1974 I 5.5 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 9.1 II 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.8 7.6 III 1.0 3.5 4.2 6.0 3.8 5.2 IV 5.3 3.9 6.7 6.2 6.9 5.8 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.8 5.2 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 I 2.4 -0.3 8.4 5.8 10.4 7.8 II 11.0 8.6 13.3 11.2 15.6 1973 1975 13.7 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Impact of Benchmark Revisions on Money Stock Growth Rates (Seasonally adjusted, per cent annual rates) Old Quarterly: M M2 Revised Old Revised Old Revised end-of-quarter to end-of-quarter 1975 I 10.4 15.6 9.9 15.6 5.8 8.3 11.2 13.8 7.8 13.7 6.5 10.5 14.0 5.6 9.9 13.9 11.9 14.7 19.6 12.4 11.7 14.9 19.7 12.5 0.8 11.2 8.4 13.3 7.6 13.4 -0.3 8.6 2.4 11.0 6.4 11.3 Quarterly average: 1975 I II Monthly 1975 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. -9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2 10.9 17.8 2.0 4.5 -11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 4.1 3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 13.1 18.8 8.2 6.4 2.5 8.4 11.6 7.3 13.4 19.2 8.2 6.3 9.9 9.8
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