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October 30-31, 2007 Material -- Accessible Version SEP: Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections (PDF) Authorized for Public Release Table 1 Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents 1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.4 to 2.5 1.8 to 2.5 2.3 to 2.7 2.5 to 2.6 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 2-1/2 to 2-3/4 4.7 to 4.8 4.8 to 4.9 4.8 to 4.9 4.7 to 4.9 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 about 4-3/4 PCE Inflation 2.9 to 3.0 1.8 to 2.1 1.7 to 2.0 1.6 to 1.9 Core PCE Inflation 1.8 to 1.9 1.7 to 1.9 1.7 to 1.9 1.6 to 1.9 June projections 2 to 2-1/4 1-3/4 to 2 Real GDP Growth 2.2 to 2.7 1.6 to 2.6 2.0 to 2.8 2.2 to 2.7 June projections 2 to 2-3/4 2-1/2 to 3 Unemployment Rate 4.7 to 4.8 4.6 to 5.0 4.6 to 5.0 4.6 to 5.0 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 4-1/2 to 5 PCE Inflation 2.7 to 3.2 1.7 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.2 1.5 to 2.0 Core PCE Inflation 1.8 to 2.1 1.7 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 June projections 2 to 2-1/4 1-3/4 to 2 Central Tendencies Real GDP Growth June projections Unemployment Rate June projections Ranges June projections 1. Projections of real GDP growth, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are fourth-quarter-to-fourthquarter growth rates, i.e. percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures and the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, respectively. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to text Table 1a Implied Economic Projections for the second half of 2007 1 Central Tendencies and Ranges* Central Tendency Range 2.6 to 2.8 (2.4 to 3.0) 2.2 to 3.2 (2.0 to 3.4) Unemployment Rate (%, Q4) 4.7 to 4.8 (4.6 to 4.7) 4.7 to 4.8 (4.6 to 4.8) Total PCE Inflation 1.9 to 2.1 1.5 to 2.5 Core PCE inflation 1.7 to 1.9 (2.1 to 2.5) 1.7 to 2.3 (1.9 to 2.5) Real GDP Growth * June economic projections for the second half of 2007 are shown in parentheses. These are computed from the projections for 2007 submitted ahead of the June FOMC meeting assuming that growth and inflation in the first half of 2007 were as predicted in the June Greenbook. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. The unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to table Participants' Projections Projection Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate (%, Q4) Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 2.6 4.7 2.1 1.7 2 2.8 4.7 2.1 1.9 3 2.6 4.7 1.9 1.7 4 2.4 4.8 1.5 1.9 5 2.8 4.7 1.9 1.9 6 2.6 4.8 2.3 1.9 7 2.6 4.8 2.1 1.9 8 2.8 4.8 1.7 1.7 9 2.6 4.7 1.5 1.7 10 2.6 4.7 2.1 2.3 11 2.6 4.8 2.1 1.7 12 2.2 4.8 1.9 2.3 13 2.6 4.8 2.1 1.9 14 3.2 4.7 2.5 1.9 15 2.6 4.8 2.3 1.9 16 2.6 4.7 2.1 1.7 Projection Real GDP Growth 17 Unemployment Rate (%, Q4) 2.4 Total PCE Inflation 4.8 Core PCE Inflation 1.9 1.7 1. Projections for the second half of 2007 implied by participants' October projections for 2007 and for the first half of 2007. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. The unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to text Table 2 October Economic Projections Respondent Year GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 2007 2.4 4.7 3.0 1.8 2 2007 2.5 4.7 3.0 1.9 3 2007 2.4 4.7 2.9 1.8 4 2007 2.3 4.8 2.7 1.9 5 2007 2.5 4.7 2.9 1.9 6 2007 2.4 4.8 3.1 1.9 7 2007 2.4 4.8 3.0 1.9 8 2007 2.5 4.8 2.8 1.8 9 2007 2.4 4.7 2.7 1.8 10 2007 2.4 4.7 3.0 2.1 11 2007 2.4 4.8 3.0 1.8 12 2007 2.2 4.8 2.9 2.1 13 2007 2.4 4.8 3.0 1.9 14 2007 2.7 4.7 3.2 1.9 15 2007 2.4 4.8 3.1 1.9 16 2007 2.4 4.7 3.0 1.8 17 2007 2.3 4.8 2.9 1.8 1 2008 1.7 4.8 1.8 1.9 2 2008 2.2 4.9 1.8 1.8 3 2008 2.6 4.6 1.9 1.7 4 2008 2.5 5.0 1.7 1.7 5 2008 1.6 4.9 2.0 1.9 6 2008 2.2 4.8 2.3 1.8 7 2008 2.1 4.9 1.8 1.8 8 2008 2.5 4.8 1.7 1.7 9 2008 2.4 4.9 1.7 1.7 Respondent Year GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 10 2008 2.2 4.8 2.0 2.0 11 2008 1.6 5.0 1.8 1.8 12 2008 2.6 4.9 2.0 1.9 13 2008 2.1 4.9 2.1 2.0 14 2008 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.0 15 2008 2.1 5.0 2.1 1.9 16 2008 1.8 4.8 2.2 1.9 17 2008 2.5 4.9 1.9 1.8 1 2009 2.2 4.8 1.9 2.0 2 2009 2.5 4.9 1.8 1.8 3 2009 2.7 4.6 1.7 1.7 4 2009 2.5 5.0 1.5 1.5 5 2009 2.3 4.9 1.9 1.9 6 2009 2.5 4.7 2.2 1.7 7 2009 2.4 4.9 1.7 1.7 8 2009 2.8 4.8 1.7 1.7 9 2009 2.7 5.0 1.5 1.5 10 2009 2.4 4.8 1.8 1.9 11 2009 2.5 4.8 1.8 1.8 12 2009 2.7 5.0 1.7 1.7 13 2009 2.4 4.9 2.0 1.9 14 2009 2.0 4.9 2.1 2.0 15 2009 2.4 4.9 2.0 1.9 16 2009 2.3 4.8 1.8 1.8 17 2009 2.6 4.9 1.8 1.8 1 2010 2.2 4.8 2.0 2.0 2 2010 2.5 4.9 1.8 1.8 3 2010 2.6 4.6 1.6 1.6 4 2010 2.5 5.0 1.5 1.5 5 2010 2.5 4.8 1.9 1.9 6 2010 2.7 4.6 2.0 1.7 7 2010 2.5 4.8 1.7 1.7 8 2010 2.6 4.8 1.7 1.7 9 2010 2.7 5.0 1.5 1.5 10 2010 2.5 4.7 1.9 1.9 Respondent Year GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 11 2010 2.4 4.8 1.7 1.7 12 2010 2.7 5.0 1.5 1.5 13 2010 2.6 4.9 1.9 1.8 14 2010 2.5 4.7 1.9 1.9 15 2010 2.5 4.9 1.9 1.9 16 2010 2.3 4.8 1.8 1.8 17 2010 2.5 4.9 1.8 1.8 Chart 1 Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2007 through 2010. Actual data for years 2002 through 2006. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Real GDP Growth Percent 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.5 Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5.9 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.5 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 Lower End of Range - - - - - 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.2 1.9 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Actual Unemployment Rate Percent Actual PCE Inflation Percent Actual 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 - - - - - 2.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 Lower End of Range Core PCE Inflation Percent Actual Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 4 13 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 13 4 0 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) A A A B A A B A B A A B A A A A A 2(b) C B C B C C C C C C C B C B C C C Uncertainty and Risks - Unemployment Rate 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Number of participants Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 8 9 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside (C) (B) (A) 0 5 12 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) A B A B B A B A B A A B A B B A A 2(b) A B A B B A A A A A A B A B A A A Uncertainty and Risks - Total PCE Inflation 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 1 9 7 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 0 9 8 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) B B A B B A B B C B A B A A B A A 2(b) B B B B B A A B B B A A A B A A A Uncertainty and Risks - Core PCE Inflation 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Number of participants Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 1 14 2 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Number of participants Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 0 10 7 Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) B B A B B B B B C B B B B B B B A 2(b) B B B B B B A B B B A A A B A A A Chart 2(a) Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent) Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms. Real GDP Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 2007 1.6-1.7 1.8-1.9 2.0-2.1 2.2-2.3 2.4-2.5 2.6-2.7 2.8-2.9 3.0-3.1 (June and October Greenbook: 2.2-2.3 percent) October 0 0 0 3 13 1 0 0 June 0 0 3 9 4 1 0 0 2008 (June Greenbook: 2.4-2.5 percent; October Greenbook: 1.6-1.7 percent) October 3 1 3 4 4 2 0 0 June 0 0 0 0 7 5 3 2 1 0 2009 October 2010 October (June Greenbook Extension and October Greenbook: 2.2-2.3 percent) 0 0 1 3 8 4 (June Greenbook Extension: 2.2-2.3 percent; October Greenbook Extension: 2.0-2.1 percent) 0 0 0 2 9 6 Unemployment Rate Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 2007 4.4-4.5 4.6-4.7 4.8-4.9 5.0-5.1 5.2-5.3 (June and October Greenbook: 4.6-4.7 percent) October 0 8 9 0 0 June 0 15 2 0 0 2008 (June and October Greenbook: 4.8-4.9 percent) October 0 1 13 3 0 June 1 7 8 1 0 2009 October 2010 October (June Greenbook Extension and October Greenbook: 4.8-4.9 percent) 0 2 12 3 0 (June and October Greenbook Extension: 4.8-4.9 percent) 0 4 10 3 0 0 0 Chart 2(b) Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent) Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms. PCE Inflation Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 1.5-1.6 2007 (June and October Greenbook: 2.9-3.0 percent) October 2008 0 0 0 2.1-2.2 0 2.3-2.4 0 0 2.5-2.6 2.7-2.8 2.9-3.0 3.1-3.2 0 3 11 3 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 (June Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent; October Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent) October 2010 1.9-2.0 (June Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent; October Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent) October 2009 1.7-1.8 2 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (June and October Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent) October 4 6 7 0 0 0 Core PCE Inflation Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 2007 1.3-1.4 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4 (June Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent; October Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent) October 0 0 7 8 2 0 June 0 0 0 9 8 0 2008 (June and October Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent) October 0 0 9 8 0 0 June 0 0 6 8 3 0 2009 (June Greenbook Extension and October Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent) October 2010 0 2 9 6 0 0 0 0 (June and October Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent) October 0 4 8 Return to top Home | Monetary policy | FOMC | FOMC transcripts Accessibility | Contact Us Last update: February 15, 2013 5
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