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Accessible Version Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on November 2-3, 2010. FOMC Minutes Summary of Economic Projections Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2010-13 and over the longer run Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2010 through 2013 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. Change in real GDP Percent 2.4 2.3 (2.8) 0.2 - - - - Longer Run - Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.5 2.5 2.4 4.0 3.6 3.0 4.7 4.5 3.6 5.0 4.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.5 Lower End of Range - - - - 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.4 Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2.7 - Unemployment rate Percent Actual 5.0 Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency - 4.5 - 4.8 - 6.9 - 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.9 7.4 Longer Run 6.3 6.0 Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.9 8.2 7.7 7.0 6.9 5.9 5.0 5.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9.5 9.4 PCE inflation Percent Actual Upper End of Range 3.3 - Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range Core PCE inflation Percent 1.9 - 3.5 - 1.7 - 1.5 - 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.0 Longer Run 2.0 - - - - 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.4 2.0 1.6 1.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Actual Upper End of Range 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2010-13 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer Run Percent range November June November June November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections 2.2 - 2.3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 2.4 - 2.5 2.6 - 2.7 15 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. 11 1 10 1 2.8 - 2.9 3.0 - 3.1 3.2 - 3.3 0 0 0 1 4 4 0 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4 2 0 5 1 0 3.4 - 3.5 0 6 6 2 0 2 1 n.a. 0 0 3.6 - 3.7 3.8 - 3.9 4.0 - 4.1 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 0 1 2 2 4 1 0 4 0 1 2 0 3 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 n.a. 0 0 4.4 - 4.5 4.6 - 4.7 4.8 - 4.9 5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 5 1 1 1 3 4 0 1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2010-13 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer Run Percent range November June November June November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections 5.0 - 5.1 5.2 - 5.3 5.4 - 5.5 5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4 7 2 0 9 5 1 0 5.8 - 5.9 6.0 - 6.1 6.2 - 6.3 6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 6.6 - 6.7 6.8 - 6.9 7.0 - 7.1 7.2 - 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 6 5 0 2 7 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.4 - 7.5 7.6 - 7.7 7.8 - 7.9 8.0 - 8.1 8.2 - 8.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 2 7 2 3 0 2 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.4 - 8.5 8.6 - 8.7 8.8 - 8.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.0 - 9.1 9.2 - 9.3 0 0 1 5 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 9.4 - 9.5 9.6 - 9.7 4 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 9.8 - 9.9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2010-13 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer Run Percent range November June November June November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections 0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 0.7 - 0.8 0.9 - 1.0 1.1 - 1.2 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 0 0 0 8 9 1 0 0 9 6 0 1 0 0 3 5 5 1 0 1 2 2 7 2 1 0 1 5 2 5 1 0 3 0 2 7 0 0 0 3 4 4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 1.7 - 1.8 1.9 - 2.0 2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 5 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2 12 0 3 11 0 2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2010-13 Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2010 Percent range November June projections projections 0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 0 0 2011 November June projections projections 0 0 0 1 2012 November June projections projections 0 1 1 0 2013 November June projections projections 0 n.a. 1 n.a. 0.7 - 0.8 0.9 - 1.0 1.1 - 1.2 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 0 11 6 1 0 6 8 2 0 1 3 6 4 1 1 2 4 5 2 0 0 5 3 2 4 0 3 4 4 2 0 1 5 3 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.7 - 1.8 1.9 - 2.0 2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 5 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 n.a. Return to top
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