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Accessible Version Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on November 1-2, 2011. FOMC Minutes Summary of Economic Projections Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-14 and over the longer run Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2011 through 2014 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2006 through 2010. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. Change in real GDP Percent 2.2 (3.3) (0.5) 3.1 - - - - Longer Run - Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 1.7 1.6 3.5 2.9 2.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 4.5 3.9 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.4 Lower End of Range - - - - 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.2 Actual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2.4 - Unemployment rate Percent Actual 4.5 Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency - 4.8 - 6.9 - 10.0 9.6 - 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.7 Longer Run 6.0 6.0 Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - - - - 9.0 8.9 8.5 8.1 7.8 7.5 6.8 6.5 5.2 5.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 - PCE inflation Percent Actual Upper End of Range 1.9 - Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range Core PCE inflation Percent 3.5 - 1.7 - 1.5 - 1.3 - 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 Longer Run 2.0 - - - - 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2.4 - 2.0 - 1.7 - 1.0 - 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 Longer Run n.a. n.a. - - - - 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Actual Upper End of Range 2.3 - Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - Figure 2. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections Histograms, eight panels. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Uncertainty about GDP growth Number of participants Lower Broadly similar Higher November projections 0 1 16 June projections 0 4 13 Uncertainty about Unemployment Number of participants Lower Broadly similar Higher November projections 0 3 14 June projections 4 13 0 Uncertainty about PCE inflation Number of participants Lower Broadly similar Higher November projections 1 4 12 June projections 2 14 1 Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation Number of participants Lower Broadly similar Higher November projections 1 5 11 June projections 1 4 12 Risks to GDP Growth Number of participants Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside November projections 11 June projections 11 6 6 0 0 Risks to Unemployment Number of participants Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside November projections 0 6 11 June projections 0 8 9 Risks to PCE inflation Number of participants Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside November projections 4 10 3 June projections 1 10 6 Risks to Core PCE inflation Number of participants Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside November projections 4 10 3 June projections 2 9 6 Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2011-14 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run Percent range November June November June November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections 1.6 - 1.7 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 1.8 - 1.9 2 - 2.1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 2.2 - 2.3 2.4 - 2.5 2.6 - 2.7 0 0 0 0 2 7 1 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3 8 4 0 10 2 2.8 - 2.9 0 6 3 0 1 0 1 n.a. 1 4 3 - 3.1 3.2 - 3.3 3.4 - 3.5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 7 7 4 2 1 2 3 3 1 5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 0 0 1 0 0 3.6 - 3.7 3.8 - 3.9 4 - 4.1 4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 3 2 0 3 1 1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 n.a. 0 0 Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2011-14 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run Percent range November June November June November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections 5.0 - 5.1 5.2 - 5.3 5.4 - 5.5 5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 7 3 1 2 6 5 1 5.8 - 5.9 6 - 6.1 6.2 - 6.3 6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 5 0 0 1 2 0 0 6.6 - 6.7 6.8 - 6.9 7 - 7.1 7.2 - 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 2 1 1 2 3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.4 - 7.5 7.6 - 7.7 7.8 - 7.9 8 - 8.1 8.2 - 8.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 9 2 3 0 2 5 6 3 2 0 0 1 2 4 1 1 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.4 - 8.5 0 3 5 1 1 0 0 n.a. 0 0 8.6 - 8.7 8.8 - 8.9 0 1 7 4 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 9 - 9.1 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2011-14 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run Percent range November June November June November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections 1.1 - 1.2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 1.7 - 1.8 0 0 0 4 3 4 2 7 2 2 5 4 3 4 2 0 6 3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 3 2 0 3 3 1.9 - 2.0 2.1 - 2.2 2.3 - 2.4 2.5 - 2.6 2.7 - 2.8 0 0 0 3 6 0 3 8 3 0 3 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 4 0 1 1 0 6 1 0 1 0 6 0 2 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 12 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 2.9 - 3.0 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 3.1 - 3.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 3.3 - 3.4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 3.5 - 3.6 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0 Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2011-14 Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2011 Percent range November June projections projections 1.1 - 1.2 0 0 1.3 - 1.4 0 0 2012 November June projections projections 0 1 2 5 2013 November June projections projections 0 0 4 4 2014 November June projections projections 0 n.a. 3 n.a. 1.5 - 1.6 1.7 - 1.8 1.9 - 2.0 2.1 - 2.2 2.3 - 2.4 0 10 7 0 0 8 7 1 0 1 6 4 3 2 0 5 2 3 0 0 5 3 4 1 0 5 2 5 0 0 4 4 5 1 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 n.a. Return to top
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