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Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) FOMC CLASS III May 19, SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1995 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY . . . . Indicators of housing demand . . ... Errata . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Chart THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY May Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending practices . . . . . . . . .. Tables Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit .... THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. international trade in goods and services U.K. economic developments . . . . . . . . . . Tables U.S. international trade in goods and services . U.S. trade in goods and services: Summary details. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Summary of months and quarters--dollar changes . Summary of months and quarters--percent changes. SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Errata 1 On page 1-21 the fifth line below the table contains a typographical error. The phrase "risk in interest rates" should read "rise in interest rates." 2 On page II 18, the upper panel of the chart is mislabeled: The solid line is the index of consumer homebuying attitudes and the dashed line is single-family housing starts. of the chart is attached. A corrected copy Indicators of Housing Demand (Seasonally adjusted; FRB seasonals except starts) Consumer Homebuying Attitudes Millions of units, annual rate \ Single-famrnily starts (left scale) 4 * Diffusion index -100 "1 /A % 1 - 75 - S0 - 25 \- Apr 0.7 [ udes May [p) 0.4 I 1987 I I 1988 1989 I 1990 I 1991 -- I I 1993 1992 --1995 1994 Note. The homebuying attitudes index is calculated by the Survey ResearchCenter (University of Michigan) as the proportion of respondents rating current conditions as good minus the proportion rating such conditions as bad. Builders' Rating of New Home Sales Diffusion index Millions of units, annual rate (left scale) May - I | 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1992 1994 1995 Note. The index is calculated from National Association of Homebuilders data as the proportion of respondents rating current sales as good to excellent minus the proportion rating them as poor. MBA Index of Mortgage Loan Applications Millions of units, annual rate Index, March 16, 1990 = 100 Single-family starts (left scale) ~.p I%/ ~ '~ Purchase index (right scale) 1990 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 1995 1995 -3THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY The May Senior Loan Officer Opinion The May 1995 Survey on Bank Lending Practices Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices posed questions about changes in bank lending standards and terms, changes in loan demand by businesses and households, merger and acquisitions activity, and the effects on the availability of credit of lender liability concerns. Fifty-eight domestic commercial banks and twenty-two branches and agencies of foreign banks participated in the survey. Supply conditions appear to have eased further over the past three months. The survey found that a relatively small net fraction of banks reported having eased standards on commercial and industrial loans to firms of all about as in the last survey. sizes over the past three months-- Large shares of the domestic and foreign respondents reported easing some terms on commercial and industrial loans and lines of credit over the past three months. Standards for approving commercial unchanged in the latest survey. significant share of the banks make consumer loans, real estate loans were about In the household sector, a reported increased willingness to and a smaller net share reported an easing of standards for home mortgage loans. Credit demand by businesses continued to demand by households was reported to have weakened. of the respondents reported industrial loans, strengthen, while A large share stronger demand for commercial and especially by larger firms, over the past three months, while a smaller fraction indicated a pickup in demand for commercial real estate loans. In contrast, more of the respondents reported a weakening of demand for installment loans and home equity loans than reported a strengthening, and a slightly larger net share -4of the respondents indicated that demand for residential mortgages had declined. and industrial loans other than for mergers Commercial The survey found that few banks, had eased less than 10 percent on net, standards on commercial and industrial loans to small firms over the past three months. large and An even smaller net percentage had eased standards on loans to middle-market borrowers. Branches and agencies of foreign banks also reported a small easing The fractions reporting easing in of business lending standards. the May survey were similar to those in the January survey. Many of the respondents terms reported that they had eased their on business loans over the past three months, and handful reported tightening terms. only a Large fractions of the domestic respondents reported having reduced credit-line costs and tightened spreads of loan rates over base rates for large and middle-market firms. Fewer banks reported having eased these terms for small firms. In addition, significant, though smaller, fractions of the respondents reported having eased other terms, including the size of credit lines, the costs of credit lines, loan covenants, and collateralization requirements. noted having eased terms loan terms. Foreign branches and agencies also The latest survey results regarding on business loans are similar to those reported since the end of 1993, with about half the banks indicating a narrowing of spreads on loans to large and middle-market firms, about a quarter narrowing spreads to smaller firms, and smaller fractions of banks easing other loan terms. The respondents attributed the easing of loan terms and standards reported in the latest survey to more aggressive competition from other commercial banks and, to a somewhat lesser extent, from nonbank lenders. respondents noted that demand In addition, a large fraction of the for business loans from firms of all -5- sizes had become more sensitive to the terms offered at their bank relative to terms available at their competitors. As has been true for the past several surveys, many banks reported increased demand for business loans over the preceding three months. On net, about 30 percent of the respondents reported greater demand by large firms, 25 percent by middle-market firms, and about 10 percent by small firms. These percentages are lower than those reported in the January survey. The respondents indicated that the higher demand was due to growth in customers' inventory financing needs and investment in plant and equipment. In addition, merger and acquisition activity reportedly boosted demand, especially by larger customers. Only about 5 percent of the foreign branches and agencies, on net, reported an increase in demand. Commercial real estate loans As in the January survey, both domestic and foreign respondents indicated that credit standards for commercial real estate loans were little changed over the past three months. The number of respondents that reported having tightened standards for construction and land development loans slightly exceeded the number that reported easing standards. On net, the banks reported that demand for commercial real estate loans (a new question on this survey) was higher than it had been three months earlier. Loans to individuals Nearly 20 percent of the domestic respondents reported that they are more willing to make consumer installment loans now than they were three months ago, a slightly larger share than in January. A similar fraction reported increased willingness to make generalpurpose loans to individuals, including home-equity loans. The respondents also reported a slight net easing of standards for approving residential mortgage applications. -6As in January, the survey suggested some softening of consumer credit demands. Nearly 10 percent of banks, on net, reported lower Before demand for consumer installment loans and home-equity loans. the January survey, there had not been a reported net decline in demand for consumer installment credit since the beginning of 1992. On balance, about 15 percent of the banks reported weaker demand for residential mortgages, following three surveys in which more than half of the respondents reported weaker mortgage demand. Loans to finance mergers and acquisitions Special questions on the May survey asked about loans to finance mergers and acquisitions. The respondents indicated that loans and undrawn commitments that were part of financing packages for mergers and acquisitions had increased over the past year. At the time of the survey, about half of this financing represented undrawn commitments. On balance, only a small fraction of the respondents reported having eased standards for approving applications for loans to finance mergers and acquisitions over the past year. In contrast, about 20 percent of the banks, on net, reported having eased terms on such loans over the same period. Effects of lender liability Another set of special questions asked about the effects on the cost and availability of business credit of banks' concerns about lender liability under federal or state environmental laws. More than a quarter of the domestic respondents reported that they received loan applications that raised lender liability concerns either fairly frequently or quite frequently. On average, the banks reported that they rejected about a fifth of these applications solely as a result of lender liability concerns. The respondents also noted that even when they are willing to make such loans, they often charge higher fees or wider spreads. Moreover, they estimated -7that nearly a third of the loans that they were willing to make with higher spreads or fees were subsequently rejected by the borrower as a result of the increased cost. SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (Percent except as noted) 1994 Instrument 1995 I Change to May 18, 1995: From 1994 FOMC, I IMar 28IMay 18 1 Feb 3 1 1________________ I1_______ -II Feb 3 High - I From 19941 From FOMC high Mar 28 I- SHORT-TERM RATES 2 Federal funds 3.07 5.66 6.00 6-01 2.94 0-35 3.13 3.27 3.52 5.78 6.38 6.84 5.71 5.83 5.98 5.69 5.68 5.66 2-56 2-41 2.14 -0.09 -0.70 -1-18 -0.02 -0.15 -0.32 3.16 3.25 6.13 6.32 6.07 6.12 6.05 6.05 2.89 2.80 -0.08 -0.02 -0.07 3.11 3.25 3.41 6.10 6.39 6.89 6.03 6.12 6.31 5-99 6.04 6.06 2.88 2.79 2.65 -0.11 -0.35 3.06 3.25 6.06 6.38 6.00 6.13 5.97 6.00 2.91 2.75 -0.38 -0.03 -0.13 6.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 3.00 0.50 0.00 4.60 5.81 6.31 7.82 8.16 6.85 7.16 7.41 6.28 6.61 6.91 1.68 0.80 0.60 -1.54 -1.43 -1.25 -0.57 -0.55 -0.50 5.49 7.37 6.34 6.15 0.66 -1.22 -0.19 7.35 9.05 8.37 7.81 0.46 -1.24 -0.56 6.97 4.12 9.25 6.79 8.40 6.41 7.87 6.12 0.90 2.00 -1.38 -0.67 -0.53 -0.29 0.01 3 Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year Commercial paper 1-month 3-month Large negotiable CDs 1-month 3-month 6-month 4 Eurodollar deposits 1-month 3-month Bank prime rate INTERMEDIATE- AND LONG-TERM RATES Corporate--A utility, recently offered 6 Home mortgages FHLMC 30-yr. fixed rate FHLMC 1-yr. adjustable rate - 8-.04 1989 Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE Composite NASDAQ (OTC) Wilshire | I Level I I I I 4437.47 284.27 871.93 5171.41 -0.09 I- Record high Stock exchange index -0.83 -0.04 -0.08 -0.25 I U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year 4 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) - -0.27 I ! Date _______ 1995 Percentage change to May 18: I ___ .1 Low, I FOMC, I Jan. 31 Mar 28 I May 18 5/15/95 2144.64 5/16/95 154.00 5/17/95 378.56 5/16/95 2718.59 1. One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average to date for maintenance period ending May 24, 1995. 3. Secondary market. 4151.81 271.95 826.14 4940.44 4340.64 279.80 864.06 5096.42 From I record I high I -1I. -2.18 -1.57 -0.90 -1.45 From 1989 low 102.39 81.69 128.25 87.47 4. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5. Most recent observation based on one-day Thursday quote and futures market index changes. 6. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown. I I From FOM C, ! Mar 28 4.55 2.89 4.59 3.16 Commecial Bank Credit and Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit 1 (Percentage change; seasonally adjusted annual rate) Level, 1994 Q4 of credit Type1994 1995 Q1 1995 Feb 1995 Mar 1995 Apr Apr 1995 (billionsof $) Commercial bank credit 1. Total loans and securities 2. Securities 3. U.S. government 4. Other 5. 6.7 4.0 4.7 8.2 14.0 3,424.5 4.8 -7.6 -10.9 2.9 15.8 951.6 -8.1 -20.6 -.2 704.4 0.0 Loans -11.2 23.6 4.5 -19.8 79.6 63.9 247.2 7.6 8.8 10.8 10.2 13.2 2,472.9 6. Business 9.2 10.3 21.7 6.3 15.9 682.0 7. Real estate 6.5 7.8 9.1 6.6 8.9 1,036.0 8. Consumer 15.2 16.4 5.2 14.6 15.2 471.0 9. Security -17.2 -20.0 -14.0 33.6 60.3 73.2 3.3 3.4 5.3 23.9 5.7 210.6 10. Other Short- and intermediate-term business credit 10.9 18.2 23.5 7.1 15.3 674.8 2 12. Loans at foreign branches -3.5 15.9 20.5 -5.0 45.6 24.6 13. Sum of lines 11 and 12 10.6 18.1 23.4 6.6 16.3 699.4 14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 25.0 22.1 20.1 20.4 36.7 178.5 7.6 13.3 18.8 22.6 9.2 20.6 877.9 -8.3 -25.7 -21.2 0.0 20.2 -6.6 18.0 12.2 17.0 20.3 18.9 15.0 n.a. 371.4 8.6 13.7 18.7 21.2 11.2 n.a. 1,252.75 11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances 15. Sum of lines 13 and 14 16. Bankers acceptances, U.S. traderelated3, 4 17. Loans at finance companies 4 18. Total (sum of lines 15, 16, and 17) 9.4 1. Except as noted, levels are averages of Wednesday data and percentage changes are based on averages of Wednesday data. For years, "percentage change" is percentage change in quarterly average from fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of specified year. For quarters, it is the percentage change in quarterly average from preceding quarter to specified quarter, annualized. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassification. 2. Loans to U.S. firms made by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 4. Levels and changes are based on averages of month-end data. 5. March 1995. n.a. Not available. -10- THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services In March, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services was about the same as in February and substantially less than in January. For both exports and imports, increases were spread among most trade categories. Nonetheless, for the first quarter the deficit was larger than in the fourth quarter. Exports in the first quarter were 2 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. This was a slower rate of growth than recorded during the past year, and reflects in part a drop in shipments to Mexico. Increases in industrial supplies, machinery, agricultural goods, and automotive products to countries other than Mexico, were partly offset by a sharp drop in exports of aircraft, automotive products to Mexico, and consumer goods. Imports in the first quarter were 3 percent higher than in the fourth quarter; this was the same rate of growth as recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. trade categories. quarter; Increases were recorded in all major The price of oil rose in each month of the first for the quarter, the rise in price just about offset a small decline in quantity. U.K. Economic Developments U.K. retail sales fell 0.2 percent in April from a month earlier, and fourth and first-quarter data were revised down slightly. The decline in retail sales occurred despite reports of higher sales by business surveys. The recent weakness is primarily due to a decline in household good sales, which reflects the poor housing market. UNITED KINGDOM ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Percent change from previous period except where noted, SA) 1994 Retail sales (Previous) Q3 Q4 Q1 .7 .2 (.3) -.2 (- .1) Jan. 1995 Feb. Mar. Apr. -1.3 (-1.2) 1.3 (1.2) -.3 (-.1) -.2 -11B.1 .a. May 18, 1995 TABLE 1 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (in bittions of dollars, seasonally adjusted) ---------------------------------NIPA Real Net Exports G & S */ Balance ---------------------------. G & S Merch. (1) (2) (3) From the Monthly ress Release 1/------------------------I Exports I Imports ----------------------------------------------------------Services G& S Merch. Services G& S Merch. (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Services (10) Years -32.4 -74.0 -110.0 -40.4 -75.7 -106.6 -96.1 -132.6 -166.6 55.7 56.8 60.0 616.9 641.7 697.9 440.4 456.9 502.6 176.6 184.8 195.3 657.3 717.4 804.5 536.5 589.4 669.2 120.9 128.0 135.3 1994 Qtr 1 2 3 4 -104.0 -111.8 -117.0 -107.1 -97.3 -106.6 -114.9 -107.5 -148.2 -166.9 -178.5 -172.7 50.9 60.3 63.5 65.2 658.9 681.7 709.2 741.6 471.4 490.0 510.6 538.4 187.6 191.7 198.7 203.2 756.2 788.3 824.2 849.1 619.6 656.9 689.0 711.1 136.6 131.3 135.2 138.0 1995 Qtr 1 -119.7 -120.9 -181.6 60.7 754.2 551.7 202.5 875.1 733.3 141.8 1992 1993 1994 Quarters (AR): 1 1 Monthly Rates: Monthly Rates: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -4.7 -3.3 -6.4 -6.4 -5.0 -7.7 -7.5 -6.8 -8.0 -7.9 -7.5 -4.5 -9.3 -8.7 -11.2 -11.3 -10.0 -12.5 -12.3 -11.6 -12.5 -12.5 -11.5 -9.1 51.5 51.8 53.9 53.4 54.0 52.7 52.0 52.7 53.3 55.1 54.5 56.7 36.7 36.4 38.6 37.9 38.6 37.3 36.5 37.4 37.9 39.4 39.4 41.0 14.8 15.5 15.3 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.7 15.1 15.8 56.2 55.2 60.2 59.8 59.0 60.3 59.5 59.6 61.3 63.0 62.0 61.3 46.1 45.0 49.7 49.2 48.6 49.7 48.8 49.0 50.4 51.9 50.9 50.1 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.2 1994 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -7,8 -9.6 -6.9 -8.6 -9.2 -8.8 -10.7 -9.1 -8.9 -10.0 -9.6 -7.3 -12.0 -13.6 -11.5 -13.4 -14.3 -14.1 -16,0 -14.1 -14.5 -15.1 -15.2 -12.9 53.6 52.8 58.4 55.9 56.2 58.3 56.5 60.3 60.5 59.9 61.9 63.6 38.5 37.4 42.0 40.3 40.2 42.0 40.1 44.1 43.5 43.3 44.8 46.5 15.1 15.5 16.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.2 17.0 16.6 17.1 17.1 61.4 62.4 65.2 64.5 65.4 67.1 67.2 69.4 69.4 69.9 71.5 70.9 50.5 50.9 53.5 53.7 54.5 56.0 56.1 58.2 58.0 58.4 60.0 59.4 10.9 11.5 11.8 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.5 1995 Jan Feb Mar -12.0 -9.2 -9.1 -16.9 -14.3 -14.2 61.0 62.3 65.3 44.3 45.4 48.2 16.7 16.8 17.1 72.9 71.4 74.5 61.2 59.7 62.5 11.8 11.7 12.0 1993 Jan Feb Mar Apr 1/ U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis, BOP vaLuation. */ In billions of 1987 dollars. Note: Details may not add to totals because of rounding. -12B.1.b. May 18, 1995 TABLE 2 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY DETAILS (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted) 1994 Nov 1994 Dec TRADE BALANCE (G&S) -9,628 EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold 1995 Jan 1995 Feb 1995 Mar -7,261 -11,953 -9,151 -9,115 -24,317 -26,640 -28,735 -26,885 -30,219 61,909 17,095 4,545 229 40,040 63,611 17,121 4,731 318 41,442 60,964 16,665 4,460 265 39,574 62,251 65,344 16,830 17,142 4,647 4,840 296 845 40,478 42,517 164,737 170,427 177,311 185,401 188,559 46,888 47,919 49,671 50,808 50,637 10,925 10,944 11,680 13,521 13,947 2,338 1,433 1,156 857 1,406 104,586 110,131 114,804 120,215 122,569 9,610 955 3,248 798 4,609 10,018 1,242 3,303 752 4,721 10,276 1,145 3,357 735 5,040 10,450 1,050 3,508 789 5,104 10,761 1,152 3,561 771 5,277 24,019 2,721 7,856 2,092 11,349 25,544 2,819 8,491 2,099 12,134 27,888 3,144 9,109 2,323 13,312 29,152 3,288 9,632 2,307 13,925 31,488 3,347 10,426 2,295 15,421 18,063 2,731 3,034 2,302 9,997 18,916 2,584 3,051 2,518 10,763 16,915 1,471 2,948 2,281 10,216 17,818 2,274 3,037 2,424 10,083 19,315 2,563 3,105 2,717 10,929 48,637 8,562 7,846 5,845 26,384 51,016 8,518 8,006 5,989 28,503 51,758 7,142 8,468 6,304 29,845 53,868 7,381 9,008 7,041 30,438 54,048 6,308 9,090 7,422 31,227 Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World 4,887 2,816 704 1,366 5,579 3,078 679 1,822 5,356 3,325 535 1,495 5,174 2,982 487 1,705 5,031 2,730 473 1,828 13,489 7,208 1,983 4,297 13,883 7,626 2,100 4,157 14,410 7,746 1,900 4,764 15,461 8,651 2,132 4,678 15,561 9,037 1,495 5,029 Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise 5,481 1,999 5,309 1,619 4,989 2,037 5,242 1,795 5,390 2,020 13,846 4,595 14,575 5,114 15,352 5,395 16,199 5,535 15,620 5,852 71,537 11,553 4,575 208 55,201 70,872 11,486 4,096 180 55,110 72,917 11,765 4,123 148 56,881 71,402 11,678 4,336 182 55,206 74,459 12,008 4,681 769 57,001 9,773 1,937 1,182 1,094 5,560 9,908 1,965 1,116 1,153 5,675 10,274 2,186 1,167 1,095 5,827 9,884 2,067 1,047 1,053 5,717 10,621 2,117 1,198 987 6,319 25,287 4,967 2,876 2,984 14,459 26,581 5,147 3,174 3,103 15,157 27,667 5,461 3,384 3,216 15,606 29,269 5,776 3,474 3,302 16,716 30,779 6,370 3,412 3,134 17,863 Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods 16,964 1,050 4,425 2,542 8,946 16,791 1,074 4,219 2,537 8,961 17,220 780 4,294 2,795 9,351 16,856 826 4,114 2,608 9,308 17,445 1,041 4,258 2,620 9,526 42,582 2,823 10,468 5,754 23,538 44,706 3,078 11,113 5,915 24,599 46,936 50,327 2,977 2,462 11,813 12,826 7,669 6,742 25,919 26,855 51,521 2,646 12,666 8,024 28,185 Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World 10,743 4,142 1,490 5,111 10,729 4,080 1,380 5,270 11,070 4,248 1,406 5,416 10,708 4,040 1,423 5,245 10,781 3,982 1,610 5,190 27,020 9,278 3,345 14,397 29,125 10,348 3,553 15,224 30,838 11,098 3,474 16,265 31,702 11,923 4,284 15,495 32,559 12,270 4,438 15,851 Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise 12,913 2,638 2,171 12,892 2,657 2,133 13,441 2,854 2,022 13,073 2,803 1,882 13,157 2,885 2,111 34,443 7,343 5,616 36,122 7,612 6,065 37,135 8,034 5,780 38,593 7,968 6,464 39,670 8,542 6,015 Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) ............ 1994 Qtr-1 1994 Qtr-2 1994 Qtr-3 1994 Qtr-4 1995 Qtr-1 189,054 197,067 206,046 212,286 218,778 34,157 32,837 33,793 34,510 35,451 10,409 12,850 15,157 12,790 13,141 706 665 1,098 2,198 1,169 142,291 150,211 156,390 164,321 169,087 9,942 12,423 14,799 12,415 12,321 4,601 3,782 3,938 4,022 4,359 8.736 8.939 9.531 10.113 8.918 9.333 8.567 8.310 8.700 9.399 15.66 15.10 15.91 14.33 12.39 15.90 15.77 15.29 14.91 15.46 ...........------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -13B.1 .c. May 18, 1995 TABLE 3 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- DOLLAR CHANGES (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted) Amount Change from Prev. Month Dec Jan Feb Mar EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrot,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other capital Goods Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World Consumer Goods Alt Other Merchandise Amount Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-2 Qtr-3 Qtr-4 atr-1 $ Change from Year Earlier 01-01 1,702 26 185 89 1,402 -2,647 -456 -270 -53 -1,868 1,287 165 186 31 905 3,093 312 193 549 2,039 5,690 1,031 18 -905 5,546 6,884 1,752 736 -277 4,673 8,090 1,137 1,841 -299 5,410 3,158 -171 426 549 2,354 23,822 3,749 3,022 -932 17,983 408 287 55 -46 112 258 -97 54 -17 319 175 -95 151 54 64 311 102 53 -17 173 1,525 98 635 7 785 2,345 326 618 224 1,177 1,263 143 523 -16 613 2,336 59 794 -12 1,496 7,469 626 2,570 202 4,071 853 -147 17 216 766 -2,000 -1,113 -103 -237 -548 902 803 89 143 -133 1,497 289 68 293 847 2,379 -44 160 144 2,119 742 -1,377 462 315 1,342 2,110 239 541 737 593 180 -1,072 82 381 789 5,411 -2,254 1,244 1,577 4,843 693 262 -25 456 -224 247 -143 -327 -182 -343 -49 210 -143 -252 -13 123 394 418 116 -140 527 120 -199 607 1,051 905 231 -85 100 386 -637 350 2,072 1,829 -488 732 -172 -381 -320 419 253 -243 148 226 729 519 777 282 847 140 -578 317 1,774 1,258 --- --- -. . -- . --- --- -- . . - -. . - --- - ---- ---- - --- --- -. . --- -- --- --- -- ---. . - -- ---- . . - -- --- --- -- --- --- --- -- --- ---- --- --- --- -- - IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services -665 -67 -479 -28 -91 2,045 279 28 -33 1,771 -1,515 -87 213 34 -1,676 135 29 -67 59 115 366 221 51 -58 152 -390 -119 -120 -42 -110 Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods -173 24 -206 -5 14 429 -294 75 258 391 Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World -13 -62 -110 159 -21 18 -38 Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages ALL Other Merchandise -. 8,979 956 2,307 -463 6,179 6,240 717 -2,367 -41 7,931 6,492 941 352 434 4,766 29,724 1,294 2,732 -1,099 26,797 737 50 152 -66 602 1,294 179 298 118 698 1,086 314 210 114 449 1,602 315 90 86 1,111 1,511 594 -61 -168 1,146 5,493 1,403 536 150 3,404 -364 46 -180 -187 -43 589 215 144 12 219 2,123 256 645 162 1,061 2,230 -616 700 827 1,320 3,391 515 1,013 927 936 1,195 -331 -160 355 1,330 8,939 -176 2,198 2,270 4,647 341 168 26 146 -362 -208 17 -171 73 -59 187 -55 2,105 1,070 208 827 1,714 751 -78 1,041 863 824 810 -771 857 347 154 356 5,539 2,992 1,094 1,453 549 197 -111 -368 -51 -140 85 82 229 1,679 269 450 1,013 422 -286 1,457 -66 684 1,078 574 -448 5,228 1,199 400 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------.--------------------------------. Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) -. 8,013 -1,320 2,442 -1,029 7,920 3,057 330 345 587 1,795 -336 -0.699 -0.54 ................................................................................................................... -85 -0.390 0.37 -156 0.257 0.48 819 0.767 0.14 2,481 0.613 1.94 2,376 0.581 1.58 -2,383 -1.174 -0.81 -94 -0.202 0.56 2,379 -0.182 3.27 -14B.1.d. May 18, 1995 TABLE 4 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- PERCENT CHANGES (Percent change from previous period) Percent Change from Prev. Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Percent Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-2 Qtr-3 Qtr-4 Qtr-1 - - - - - -. EXPORTS, Total (G&S) 2.7 0.2 4.1 38.9 3.5 -4.2 -2.7 -5.7 -16.6 -4.5 2.1 1.0 4.2 11.7 2.3 5.0 1.9 4.2 185.5 5.0 3.5 2.2 0.2 -38.7 5.3 Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coat,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies 4.2 30.0 1.7 -5.8 2.4 2.6 -7.8 1.6 -2.3 6.7 1.7 -8.3 4.5 7.4 1.3 3.0 9.7 1.5 -2.2 3.4 Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods 4.7 -5.4 0.6 9.4 7.7 -10.6 -43.1 -3.4 -9.4 -5.1 5.3 54.6 3.0 6.3 -1.3 Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World 14.2 9.3 -3.6 33.4 -4.0 8.0 -21.1 -17.9 -3.1 -19.0 -6.0 25.9 -0.9 -0.6 -10.5 -13.4 -0.2 2.9 2.4 0.7 -18.1 3.2 Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies 1.4 1.5 -5.7 5.3 2.1 Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods -1.0 2.3 -4.7 -0.2 0.2 Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold Consumer Goods ALL Other Merchandise - - -. - -. - - - - --. --- -- 4.0 3.7 6.7 -19.3 4.2 4.6 2.3 15.8 -25.8 4.7 1.7 -0.3 3.2 64.0 2.0 6.3 3.6 8.1 0.3 6.9 9.2 11.5 7.3 10.7 9.7 4.5 4.6 5.7 -0.7 4.6 8.0 1.8 8.2 -0.5 10.7 31.1 23.0 32.7 9.7 35.9 8.4 12.7 2.3 12.1 8.4 4.9 -0.5 2.0 2.5 8.0 1.5 -16.2 5.8 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.3 6.4 11.7 2.0 0.3 -14.5 0.9 5.4 2.6 11.1 -26.3 15.9 27.0 18.4 -3.4 -10.3 -9.1 14.0 -2.8 -8.5 -2.8 7.2 2.9 5.8 5.9 -3.3 3.8 1.6 -9.5 14.6 7.3 11.7 12.2 -1.8 0.6 4.5 -29.9 7.5 15.4 25.4 -24.6 17.0 5.1 -11.9 2.8 12.6 5.3 11.3 5.3 5.5 5.5 2.6 -3.6 5.7 12.8 27.4 -2.1 -0.7 5.2 23.3 -2.9 4.3 2.8 8.0 322.4 3.3 4.2 -3.9 23.5 -46.8 5.6 4.6 2.9 17.9 -39.6 4.1 3.0 2.1 -15.6 -5.8 5.1 3.1 2.7 2.7 65.2 2.9 15.7 3.8 26.3 -50.0 18.8 3.7 11.2 4.6 -5.0 2.7 -3.8 -5.4 -10.3 -3.8 -1.9 7.5 2.4 14.5 -6.3 10.5 5.1 3.6 10.4 4.0 4.8 4.1 6.1 6.6 3.7 3.0 5.8 5.8 2.6 2.7 7.1 5.2 10.3 -1.8 -5.1 6.9 21.7 28.2 18.6 5.0 23.5 2.6 -27.4 1.8 10.2 4.4 -2.1 5.9 -4.2 -6.7 -0.5 3.5 26.0 3.5 0.4 2.3 5.0 9.1 6.2 2.8 4.5 5.0 -20.0 6.3 14.0 5.4 7.2 20.9 8.6 13.7 3.6 2.4 -11.1 -1.2 4.6 5.0 21.0 -6.2 21.0 39.5 19.7 -3.3 -4.9 1.2 -3.2 0.7 -1.4 13.1 -1.1 7.8 11.5 6.2 5.7 5.9 7.3 -2.2 6.8 2.8 7.4 23.3 -4.7 ................................................................................................... IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services PetroLeum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise % Change from Year Earlier Q1-01 14.5 8.0 27.7 -39.9 17.2 20.5 32.3 32.7 10.1 -0.2 0.7 -1.8 4.3 7.4 -5.2 -2.7 -1.8 -6.9 0.6 2.9 12.2 4.9 3.7 8.0 2.8 5.5 -4.7 3.9 -0.8 11.8 2.8 7.2 -6.9 15.2 16.3 7.1 -7.7 -7.4 -3.5 -2.1 -4.5 2.5 -4.0 3.1 3.2 21.7 8.9 0.9 25.0 6.9 15.6 19.1 6.1 11.0 -16.1 -11.6 -5.1 -0.8 -2.3 3.7 23.9 -2.0 26.4 Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price C$/bbl) .....................................................................................................................
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