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(CONFIDENTIAL FR) May 17, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL (FR) May 17, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M 1 increased at an annual rate of 8.3 per cent in April. Growth appears to be moderating in May, and M1 is indicated to expand at a 6.5 per cent annual rate over the April-May period, slightly below the upper end of the Committee's range of tolerance. Growth in M2 also appears to be slowing over April and May, to a rate slightly below the mid-point of its range of tolerance, reflecting somewhat more moderate expansion of time deposits (other than large CD's) than projected at the time of the April Committee meeting.1 / Deposit in- flows at nonbank thrift institutions have slowed markedly. Estimates for April show no growth, seasonally adjusted, at mutual savings banks and only a 4 per cent rate of growth at S&L's; data for recent weeks suggest the possibility of an even weaker performance in May. 1/ Growth rates for M 1 and M2 are based on revised data. Money supply figures have been revised back to October to reflect December call report information for nonmember banks and new data for foreign agencies and branches. The revision raises the annual rate of growth for M 1 from 7.5 to 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 1973, and from 6.7 to 7.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 1974. Levels of M 1 for December and March are raised by $1 and $1.3 billion, respectively. The old and revised series are compared in appendix table V. -2Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in April-May Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in >er cent) RPD's 6 - 11 M1 3 -7 21.4 6.5 54 -8h M2 Memo: Sfunds rate Federa:1 funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ Latest Estimates Range of Tolerance 6.8 Avg, for Statement week ending 9 - ll 9k 11 pril 17 10.36 Lay 15 11.46 M4 On April 24 the Committee raised the upper limit of the Federal funds rate range from 10% per cent to 11 per cent; on May 16, the Committee agreed to change the ceiling guideline to 11% per cent. (2) CD's and other non-deposit sources, however, expanded much more rapidly than projected for the inter-meeting period, as bueiness loan demands remained strong. Mainly as a result of this, estimated RPD growth for the April-May period is far above the upper end of the Committee's range of tolerance, as indicated in the table below. Comparison of Projected Changes in RPD's by Use April-May 1974 (In millions of dollars) Change in Total RPD's 1/ Projections as of April 16, 1974 FOMC meeting Current Projection. 561 1179 Change in Category of Use: Private demand deposits Time deposits other than large CD's CD's and nondeposit funds Excess I/ Changes from March to May 1974. 18 59 25 485 61 60 987 73 -3(3) Following the April FOMC meeting, incoming deposit data suggested that growth in both M 1 and M2 would exceed the upper end of their ranges of tolerance. Accordingly, the Account Manager adopted a more reluctant approach to the provision of reserves, expecting the Federal funds rate to move up to around 10¾ per cent, the upper end of its range. Money market pressures proved unexpectedly strong, however, and Federal funds began to trade around 11 per cent toward the end of the statement week ending April 24th. to raise Given these conditions, and the action the discount rate to 8 per cent on April 24, Chairman Burns recommended on that day raising the upper end of the tolerance range for the Federal funds rate to 11 per cent. A majority of the Committee members concurred in this recommendation. (4) Subsequently, the Account Manager sought reserve conditions consistent with an 11 per cent Federal funds rate. Unusually strong money market pressures persisted, however, and the Federal funds rate averaged above 11 per cent. In the past statement week the effective rate has been consistently close to 11 eased to about 11.35 per cent. per cent, although today it It appears that member banks have had a strong preference to avoid borrowing at the discount window, opting instead to pay a higher rate on Federal funds. Apart from special borrowing by a problem bank, member bank borrowing over the past two statement weeks averaged $1.6 billion, down from an average of almost $2 billion in the previous three weeks. (5) The Desk has been handicapped in attempting to counteract these pressures by the technical state of the markets for Treasury and -4Dealer positions in U.S. Government securities Federal Agency securities. have been depleted throughout the period, reflecting the state of expectations in the dealer community, sizable Desk purchases, and good Collateral for repurchase agreements has also been on retail demand. the scarce side. Moreover, dealers have withdrawn sizable amounts of repurchase agreements before maturity because they have been making considerable net sales of Treasury securities to the public. (6) On May 17, Chairman Burns recommended that the Committee take note of the difficulties faced by the Desk in the recent period. Also, given the likelihood that the technical problems encountered might persist over the next few days, the Chairman expressed the view that it would be appropriate to change the ceiling guideline for the funds rate from 11 to ll¼ per cent. A majority of Committee members concurred in the Chairman's recommendations. (7) After rising sharply early in the inter-meeting period, interest rates on Treasury securities, particularly on Treasury bills, have dropped considerably in recent days. The 3-month bill rate was quoted 7.93 per cent at the close on Friday, as compared with an average issuing rate of 9.02 per cent established in the auction of May 6. The rally in the Treasury securities market has been generated not only by the previously noted shortage of issues, but also by an apparent shift of investor preferences toward securities of the highest quality, sparked by news stories regarding the problems of the Franklin National Bank and widespread rumors that some other banks and financial houses might also be encountering difficulties. -5(8) Private short-term rates have risen sharply since the last Committee meeting. Banks have raised their prime rates from the 10 per cent level prevailing in mid-April into an 11¼--11½ per cent range. Yields on large CD's and commercial paper with 3-month maturity dates have risen a percentage point or more to levels above 11 per cent. Evidence of a move toward higher quality securities is also apparent in these sectors of the credit markets. There are reports, for example, that a number of investors have reduced the list of institutions whose commercial paper, bankers' acceptances, and negotiable CD's they are prepared to acquire. And there has been a marked widening of the yield spread between issues of prime and lower grade borrowers in these markets. (9) For its mid-May refunding operations, the Treasury decided to pay down $1.6 billion of the $5.6 billion of maturing debt and to refund the remainder by issuing three securities: of an 8¾, 2 $2.0 billion 5½ month note; $1.75 billion of an 8¾, 4¼ year note; and $300 million of a 8.50 per cent, 25-year bond. Both notes were auctioned at prices near par and currently are quoted above their auction averages. The bond was auctioned at a substantial premium to provide a yield of 8.23 per cent; the premium subsequently increased enough to reduce the yield to 8.13 per cent, but most recently the price has fallen back to about the auction average. Dealers have now distributed the bulk of their awards of all three issues. (10) The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods; money supply figures are on a revised basis. Appendix -6table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterlyaverage basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis. Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix table IV for the three alternatives presented in the next section. Average of Past Three Calendar Years 1971 -1973 Past Past Past Twelve Months Apr. '74 over Apr. '73 Six Months Apr. '74 over Oct. '73 Three Months Apr. '74 over Jan. '74 Past Month Apr. '74 over Mar. '74 Total reserves 8.5 8.2 7.5 .7 33.1 Nonborrowed reserves 7.6 8.6 6.2 -7.1 19.4 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 8.8 9.8 7.1 10.6 20.0 7.0 7,2 8.6 10.8 8.3 other than large CD's) 10.4 9.6 10.1 10.3 8.2 11.7 8.9 9.4 9.4 7.6 Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10.5 10.5 11.1 15.0 31.9 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 12.8 12.0 12.1 16.4 16.5 1.0 1.4 1.9 3.3 7.6 .2 .6 .3 -.6 -.8 Concepts of Money (revised series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (11) Alternative policy approaches are summarized below for Committee consideration (with more detailed figures shown in the table on P.8a). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 6¼ 5½ 4¾ M2 6½ 6 5 Credit proxy 14 12 10 18-20 16½-18½ 15½-17½ M1 5-7 4½-6½ 4-6 M2 5½-7½ 5-7 4-6 Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period) 10-12 11-13 12-14 Targets (2nd & 3rd qtrs. combined) Associated ranges for May-June RPD (12) At its last meeting, the Committee established a 5½ per cent annual rate of growth for M 1 from March to September as its longerrun target. Since then, the March level of M1 has been raised by $1.3 billion, reflecting revisions for new year-end benchmark data (as explained in the footnote on page 1). The 4¾ per cent annual rate of growth for M 1 in alternative C has been set to compensate for this upward revision. As shown in the chart on the following page, such a growth rate would achieve the M 1 level in September that was implicit in the longer-run path adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. Alternative B continues a 5½ per cent growth rate for M1, but from the MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 3 REVISED SERIES RATE OF GROWTH DEC. '72 TO MAR. '74 .. %%GROWTH .-- - 280 GROWTH 6.4% LEVEL - 270 - 260 II J I A I S 0 1973 N D J I F ~I M A M 1974 J A S Alternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 1974 Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Apr. May June 278.1 279.2 280.8 278.1 278.1 279.1 280.3 590.2 592.8 596.5 590.2 592.8 595.9 590.2 279.2 280.6 921.6 924.9 595.2 921.6 924.9 929.7 928.8 924.7 927.9 Sept. 284.7 283.9 282.8 606.3 603.7 600.6 942.7 939.4 935.3 592.7 921.6 Rates Of Growth Quarters: 1974 M3 Alt. B 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 6.4 4.7 7.0 6.6 5.7 4.6 5.3 3.2 4.3 5.1 4.0 Months: May June 4.7 6.9 4.7 6.0 4.3 5.2 Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1974 5.3 5.3 6.3 7.5 Alt. A Apr. May June 471.3 477.4 482.2 471.3 477.4 481.8 471.3 477.4 481.5 35,914 36,557 Sept. 491.2 487.0 20.1 7.5 15.5 12.1 5.1 5.1 Total Reserves Alt. B Alt. C 4.3 6.2 4.2 Alt. A RPD Alt. B Alt. C 36,635 35,914 36,550 36,565 35,914 36,550 36,486 33,669 34,296 34,730 33,669 34,288 34,660 33,669 34,280 34,581 482.0 36,918 36,440 35,911 35,338 34,867] 34,336 19.8 4.3 19.5 0.5 19.3 3.1 18.5 17.6 6.3 19.5 18.6 2.4 17.7 15.5 11.0 15.5 10.3 21.5 2.6 21.2 0.5 21.2 -2.2 22.4 22.1 22.0 15.2 13.0 10.1 Quarters: 1974 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 1.7 7.0 -2.8 Months: May June -8a- -9Alternative A contemplates a somewhat more rapid 6¼ per new March level. cent growth rate in M 1 over the second and third quarters combined. (13) A somewhat more rapid longer-run rate of growth in M1 than adopted by the Committee at its last meeting, such as envisioned under alternative A, appears necessary if money market conditions are not to Under alternative A, the staff would expect the Federal tighten further. funds rate to trade most frequently around 11-11¼ per cent. (14) The funds rate has been subject to upward pressure, in part because of a shift of bank borrowing preferences from the window to the funds market. This pressure may moderate, however, if more normal borrowing preferences come to prevail. We have assumed that member banks will want to increase their borrowing (apart from special borrowing) to about $2 billion per week on average under alternative A, given the roughly 3 percentage point spread of the Federal funds rate over the current 8 per cent discount rate. Special borrowing by a problem bank may add another $1 billion or so to borrowing levels. (15) If funds were to trade mostly around 11 per cent over the weeks ahead there probably would be some decline in other short-term rates, and also in long rates, since market participants appear to have adjusted to a funds rate somewhat above this level. Declines could be fairly sizable, at least temporarily, if the market were to interpret such a move as signaling a shift in policy direction. Moreover, the shift in investor preferences toward high quality assets, and the -10continued short market supply of Treasury bills, would tend to keep Treasury rates low relative to other market rates--perhaps in a 7½--8½ per cent range in the case of the 3-month bill. The odds on bill rates settling in the upper part of this range would increase if the Treasury should choose to issue a bill strip of $1-1½ billion--a possibility that has been under some discussion. (16) With the money market conditions assumed under alternative A, the staff would expect M1 growth in May-June to be in a 5-7 per cent range. The mid-point of this range, if attained, would produce a 6¾ per cent annual growth rate in the second quarter. Growth would be expected to slow somewhat in the third quarter to about a 5¾ per cent rate, as demand for money is further restrained by lagged impacts of the sharp rise in short-term interest rates over the past few months. (17) Growth in time and savings deposits at banks (other than negotiable CD's at the large weekly reporting banks), and in deposits at thrift institutions has been sharply curtailed by the attraction of high market interest rates to savers. We would expect this tendency to continue even under alternative A, so that M2 growth over the second and third quarters would be expected to slow to around 6.5 per cent, and in M3 to about 5.0 per cent--on the order of 4 percentage points below the average annual rate of expansion in the fourth and first quarters. (18) Restraining M1 growth to a 5½ per cent annual rate over the second and third quarters--as under alternative B-- would be expected to put somewhat more pressure on the money market, with the -11Federal funds rate rising to around 12 per cent between now and the next Committee meeting. The 3-month bill rate would likely move up into an 8½--9½ per cent range over the next few weeks, and other market rates would also adjust upward. This rise in rates would be needed to hold the rise in money demands to a pace consistent with a 5½ per cent growth rate for M1 in the second and third quarters, in view of the larger increase in prices and nominal GNP. now projected. This relationship between money growth and interest rates makes no allowance for the possibility that liquidity preference may increase if confidence in financial markets continues to weaken. To achieve the even greater restraint on monetary ex- (19) pansion called for under alternative C, the Federal funds rate would be expected to rise to around 13 per cent over the next few weeks. The time and savings deposits experience at banks and thrift institutions would be expected to deteriorate further--with deposit flows at thrift institutions probably negative as the Treasury bill rate adjusted sharply upward, perhaps to near 10 per cent. (20) Under alternative A, banks are expected to continue borrowing fairly heavily through CD's, and to obtain funds in the EuroWe have projected a slower growth in CD's, though, in dollar market. the expectation that tighter lending terms by banks will work to moderate loan growth. Moreover, it appears that less-than-prime banks are be- ginning to encounter investor resistance to their CD's. If, as seems quite possible, such resistance intensifies, CD growth could be substantially less than projected, bank credit expansion could be constrained, and strains in other financial markets (including the Euro-dollar market) be exacerbated. could -12(21) Under alternative C and possibly also B, sharply higher interest rates would erode asset values and bring the adequacy of bank liquidity into question. Banks outside major money centers might in some cases be excluded altogether from raising funds in national money markets. With the intensification of pressures on financial institutions and financial markets, many institutional lenders would likely severely restrict loan extensions. The mortgage market would come under great pressure and some nonfinancial businesses would encounter serious liquidity problems. (22) A further significant rise in interest rates over the next few months may need to be followed by a decline in late summer in order to avoid unduly limiting monetary expansion in the final months of the year. Alternative C has the greatest potential for such a pattern, and might well bring about a severe wrenching of market conditions. -13Proposed directive (22) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. In all three alternatives, it is proposed to delete the reference to Treasury financing because the quarterly refunding announced on May 1 has been completed and the issues largely distributed. Also, in view of the strong connection between U.S. financial markets, the Euro-dollar market, and foreign exchange markets, it is proposed to say ". . .while taking account of financial market developments. . ." without separate reference to "international" and "domestic" developments. In alternative C, it is proposed to give special emphasis to that phase--i.e.,". . .while taking careful account. . ."--in view of the strong possibility of exaggerated market reactions to the sharp rise in interest rates associated with open market operations designed to achieve the specified rates of growth in the aggregates. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: the domestic] internationl of and financing Treacury forthcoming financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that moderate] would [DEL: CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. -14Alternative B the To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: domestic] international of and financing Treasury forthcoming financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that would moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking CAREFUL account of domestic] international of and financing Treasury forthcoming the [DEL: financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that would moderate SLOW APPRECIABLY THE growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. (23) In the event that the Committee wishes to couch the operational paragraph of the directive in terms of money market conditions, the specifications of alternative A might be associated with language indicating that ". . .the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing restrictive money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified ranges of tolerance." CHART 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 5/17/74 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 11% growth for Apr -38 J F M 1974 11 11 4 1i i I liliiI I I I I,I LI I -II _ III11111111 M J ]973 S 0 M J 1974 I S SBreak in Series Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements -l D A CHART 3 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT - 12 INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT -I 13 10 -8 - 6 4 1973 1974 1973 1974 1973 1974 TABLE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 1 MAY BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AGGREGATE RESERVES II RESERVES AVAILABLE PRIVATE NOMBANK FOR DEPOSITS PERIO ---SEAS ADJ I (1) I I 32,791 33,117 33.669 134,296) ----------I NON SEAS ADJ I (2) 1974 REQUIRED RESERVES I ----------------- -------- I------------ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED II II---------------------------------------------------- I 17, II TOTAL RESERVES NONBORROWED I RESERVES I 11 (3) (4) 359108 34,949 35,914 (36,557) 33,916 339634 34,178 (34,502) PRIVATE DEMAND I ------- OTHER TIME DEP CD'S AND NON DEP (6) (7) 18) 3,967 4,037 4,416 1 5,024) 2,316 1,831 2,245 ( 2,261) (5) GOV'T AND INTERBANK MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONSI 1974--FEB MAR. APR. MAY ANNUAL 32,875 32,888 33,751 (34,112) 20,039 20,291 20,411 120,350) I 8,601 8,654 8,651 8,715) RATES OF CHANGE -------------- I QUARTERLY: 1973--4TH OTR. 1.4 1974--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 6.2 S19.7) 1.7 ( 19.5 1.5 ( 2.6) 1.3 1 2.5) -0.3 11.9 20.0 22.3) -24.8 -5.4 33.1 ( 21.5) -30.4 -10.0 19.4 S11.4) -15.7 15.1 7.1 ( -3.6) MONTHLY: 1974--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY ( APR.-MAY 6.1 ( (21.4) 27.61 13.4 I 15.51 5.8 ( 1.71 12.7 I 9.2 3.7) 10.7 7.4 -0.4 8.9) 4.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS MAR. 6 13 20 27 33,134 32,938 33,216 33,115 32,810 32,594 33,030 32,979 34,663 34,792 35,233 34,808 33,751 33,809 33,750 33,095 20,351 20,140 20,470 20,229 8,647 8,663 8,659 89649 4,01.7 4,019 4,007 4,068 1,530 1,854 2,017 1,693 APR. 3 10 17 24 33,240 33,117 33,794 33,773 33,116 32,849 33,835 34,042 35,398 35,040 36,161 36,057 33,895 33,846 34,345 34,119 20,263 20,218 20,468 20,359 8,652 8,633 8,628 8,657 4,099 4,204 4,369 4,566 2,158 1,923 2,367 2.284 MAY 1 8 15 34,258 34,151 34,169 34,682 34,304 34,094 36,737 36,385 36,633 34,580 34,768 34,833 20,705 20,385 20,240 8,693 8,698 8,727 4,702 4,855 4.958 2,478 2,234 2,463 NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF APRIL 16, THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 6 TO 11 PERCENT FOR THE APRIL-HAY PERIOD. 1974 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TABLE 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) (ACTUAL I PERIOD I I I ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY II II II (21 (31) I 581.9 586.2 590.2 1592.8) 454.8 459.1 471.3 (477.4) S MONEY SUPPLY I NARROW I BROAD (MI) I (M2) (11 I U.S. GOVT. DEPOSITS (41 I I I MAY 17, 1974 I I I TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I OTHER I TOTAL I THAN CD S I CD S i I I 16) 17) NONDEPOSIT SOURCES OF FUNDS I 18) I MONTHLY LEVELS-tBILLIONSI 273.7 276.2 278.1 (279.2) 1974--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY 3.0 3.7 4.6 ( 3.9) 308.2 310.0 312.1 (313.7) 374.8 377.7 387.4 (394.6) 66.6 67.7 75.3 (80.9) 7.7 8.6 9.6 (10.71 PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1973--4TH OTR. 11.0 8.9 I I 3.3 8.5 (20.7) 15.6 (23.5) 12.5 ( 7.4) 13.6 8.9 8.2 1 5.3) 1.3 11.3 31.9 (15.5) 15.2 9.3 30.8 (22.3) 14.2 7.0 8.1 ( 6.2) f 6.5) ( 6.8) (23.9) (26.8) ( 7.2) 277.0 276.1 275.9 275.5 586.6 585.8 586.1 585.7 458.2 456.4 459.3 460.2 4.2 3.0 4.0 3.6 375.5 376.5 377.3 379.0 309*6 309*7 310.2 310.2 65.9 66.8 67.1 68.8 8.0 8.1 8.8 9.2 3 10 17 24 277.4 277.6 280.0 277.7 588.0 589.2 592.2 590.1 466.3 468.4 472.9 471.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 382.0 385.4 387.0 389.2 310.5 311.5 312.2 312.3 71.4 73.9 74.8 76.9 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7 1 8 P 15 PE) 276.9 278.4 278.9 589.8 591.1 592.4 473.7 476.4 476.4 4.4 5.3 3.4 390.8 392.3 394,1 312.9 312.7 313.5 77.9 79.6 80.6 1974--LST QTR 2ND QTR. 7.1 ( 6.7) t 12.9 11.0 8.3 1 4.7) 9.9 7.0) 12.6 6.1 MONTHLY 1974--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-NAY WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILL IONS I ---------------- MAR. 6 13 20 27 APR. MAY r I---- ,- - -- U ---- lh - - ~ ----- NOTE: DATA SHOIN IN PARENTHESES ~ -C-- ~-- --- ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. P 10.2 10.4 10.7 ~------- YL- - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED -LI 1 ------- - ---------- C------ ---- II---- ------- -- --- -- - - - - -- - - -- - - -- - - -- - - STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY 17, 1974 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills & Accept. (1) Open Market Operations 1/ Agency RP's Coupon Issues Issues Net 3/ (3) (4) (2) Total (5) Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Other 4/ Open Market a Member Bank Borrowing Factors Operations (8) (6) (7) in reserve categories available res. 5/ req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (10) (9) Target available reserves 5/ (11) Monthly 1973 -- Oct. Nov. hec. 1,972 -1,008 1,862 -533 226 172 71 128 295 -902 -831 2,440 -1,307 1,386 1,986 394 1,336 -395 -68 -101 -678 -646 -759 379 -190 -70 534 -130 546 1,005 860 475 1974 -- Jan. Feb. March -397 -32 -64 179 30 190 -10 74 122 -100 -1,531 -328 71 1,780 1,031 9 -74 -254 143 166 698 -1,505 -358 773 -356 -323 702 -997 57 895 -875 -30 April May June 790 172 312 -485 789 922 362 -338 177 769 315 -130 Weekly 1974 -- 1/ 2/ J/ 4/ / Mar. 6 13 26 27 -759 -416 451 -18 --190 -- -5 -43 -170 370 2,116 -893 -1,474 -394 1,657 -252 -1,321 -376 -21 678 136 -339 71 501 229 497 65 -717 -800 -326 332 25 -384 108 -217 437 -51 Apr. 3 10 17 24 --5 206 -33 ---172 ---119 251 -532 142 251 -5 738 399 494 -785 963 156 -210 -309 622 122 385 653 -331 -367 532 -174 268 54 -3 p 137p -267 986 265p May 1 8 15 22 29 526 267 176 -- 193 --- 220 494 446 939 761 622 1,103 219 -591p 91p 640p 483 454 -540 360 -359p -525p -38p 49 3 p -378p -204p -- Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; Includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Target change for April and May reflects the target adopted at the April 16, 1974 FOMC meeting. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY 17, 1974 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars U S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period Bills (1) Coupot Issues (2) Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds (3) (4) Excess** Reserves (5) Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Total Seasonal 8 Ney York 38 Qthers (6) (7) (8) (9) 1973 -- High Low 3,796 897 1,299 -301 197 0 384 36 631 -240 2,561 688 163 3 -5,243 -1,831 -10,661 -4,048 1974 -- High Low 3,238 305 2,203 -39 253 7 371 43 394 -83 2,157 776 94 13 -6,189 2,672 -12,843 - 9,181 1973 -- Apr May Tune 2,457 1,894 2,281 106 421 562 12 66 33 60 151 120 255 161 234 1,688 1,843 1,851 3 30 75 -3,293 -3,019 -3,507 -6,577 -5,872 -6,443 July Aug. Sept 1,425 1,690 2,745 265 39 395 24 0 6 139 70 80 285 177 216 1,953 2,165 1,852 155 163 148 -2,460 -2,689 -3,173 -6,106 -4,440 -5,355 Oct Nov. Dec 2,565 2,804 3,441 484 793 973 44 90 105 226 148 276 227 239 307 1,476 1,393 1,298 126 84 41 -3,814 -4,469 -4,682 -6,090 -8,186 -9,793 Jan Feb Mar 3,102 2,436 1,986 540 1,619 583 114 120 68 254 263 239 162 184 134 1,051 1,162 1,314 18 17 32 -4,753 -5,262 -5,030 -10,893 -10,769 -11,058 Apr *1,435 99 39 78 1,736p 40p -3,952 -11,603 1974 -- 1974 -- NOTE: * 20 5p Mar. 6 13 20 27 2,474 2,466 1,501 1,538 1,097 848 520 154 114 14 71 73 298 286 167 204 118 116 80 169 912 983 1,483 1,713 19 19 34 44 -5,911 -5,858 -4,304 -4,402 -10,497 -11,388 -11,441 -11,298 Apr. 3 10 17 24 2,264 2,120 1,754 * 472 263 212 80 * -39 86 16 30 24 97 46 43 124 226 62 329 190p 1,503 1,194 1,816 1,938p 48 41 47 54p -4,032 -5,375 -4,739 -2,672 -11,062 -11,470 -12,826 -11,648 May * * * *-15 *-17 *384 7 37 150p 153 129 95p 158p 213p 250p 2 74p 82p 94p -2,967 3 676 - , p 3 9 9 - , 9 p - 9,712 - 9,185p - 9,181p 1 8 15. 22 29 810 616 305 ,157p 6 1, 17p 1,977p Government security dealer trading positions are on a commtiment basis. Trading positions, wnicn exclude Treasury DiLLs rinanced by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are debt issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate less net Federal funds purchases which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY 17,1974 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent Treasury Bills Period 1973 -- 1974 -- U.S Government (10-yr Constant Maturity) FNMA Auction Yields i-Year (2) (3) Low 10.84 5.61 8.95 5.15 8.43 5.42 10.50 5.63 10.50 5.38 10.75 5.50 8.52 7.29 8.30 7.26 5.59 4.99 7.54 6.42 9.37 7.69 High Low 11.46 8.81 8.78 7.04 8.52 6.39 11.00 7.88 11.00 8.00 11.00 7.88 9.27 8.05 9.14 8.14 6.00 5.16 7.66 6.93 9.34 8.43 Apr. May 7.12 7.84 8.49 6.26 6.36 7.19 6.51 6.63 7.05 7.13 7.26 8.00 7.04 7.44 7.98 6.75 7.41 8 13 7.46 7.51 7.64 7.48 7.50 7.64 5.15 5.15 5.18 6.67 6.85 6.90 7.89 7.98 8.07 July Aug. Sept. 10.40 10.50 10.78 8.01 8.67 8.29 7.97 8.32 8.07 9.26 10.26 10.31 9.09 10.25 10.31 9.19 16.40 10.50 8.01 8.36 7.88 7.97 8.22 7.99 5.40 5.48 5.10 7.13 7.40 7.09 8.46 8.83 9.32 Oct. Nov. Dec. 10.01 10.03 9.95 7.22 7.83 7.45 7.17 7.40 7.01 9.14 9.11 9.28 9.15 9.06 9.44 9.08 8.91 9.13 7.90 7.90 8.00 7.94 7.94 8.04 5.05 5.18 5.12 6.79 6.73 6.74 9.01 8.84 8.78 Jan. 9.65 8.97 9.35 10.51 7.77 7.12 7.97 7.01 6.51 7.34 8.08 9.05 8 09 8.69 9.81 8.83 7.97 8.56 8.33 8.86 8.00 8.64 9.92 9.78 8.21 8.12 8.46 8.98 8.22 8.23 8.42 8.94 5.22 5.20 5.41 5.73 6.99 6.96 7.21 7.51 8.71 8.48 8.53 9.07 13 20 27 8.98 9.03 9 33 9.61 7.60 7.81 7.93 8.22 6.91 7.02 7.26 7 83 8.15 8.33 8.58 9.10 8.25 8.38 8.75 9.38 8.13 8 25 8.63 9.25 8.37 8.33 8.59 8.64 8.27 8.37 8.52 8.67 5.27 5.32 5.46 5.57 7.08 7.12 7.28 7.38 Apr. 3 10 17 24 9.93 10.02 10.36 10.78 8.41 8.60 8.13 7.96 7.84 8.10 8.01 8.08 9.45 9.63 9.80 10.03 9.38 9.75 9.88 10.25 9.25 9.75 9.88 10.25 8.78 9.13 8.91 8.98 8.75 8.92 8.95 9 08 5.73 5.75 3.61 5.82 7 47 7.48 7.46 7.58 May 1 8 15 22 29 11.17 11.29 11.46 8.65 8.78 8.15 8.34 8.52 8.21 10.65 10.98 11.00 10.75 11.00 10.88 10.75 11.00 11.00 9.27 9.27 9.22p 9.01 9 14 . p n.a. 5.91 6.00 6.04 7.63 7.66 7.55p 9 16 11.51 11.53p 8.49 7.94 8.49 8.08 11.00 11.00 High Mar. Daily--May -- ____ Municipal Bond Buyer 90-Day Apr. NOTES: INew 60-89 Day Aaa Utility Recently Issue Offered (1) Feb. Mar. 1974 -- Long-Term CD's New Issue-NYC Federal Funds June 1974 -- Short-Term 90-119 Day Conmmercial paper __ ._ 6 -~---e (4) (5) 90-119 Day (6) (7) (8) (9) (11) (10) 8.44 8.62 8.95 9.18 9.34 7.70 n.a. -- -~-L~-------- Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For Columns 7, 8 and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in the hi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. APPENDIX TABLE I May 17, 1974 RESERVES ANDMONETARY VARIABLES RESERVES period Total (1) Nonborrowed (2) MONEYSTOCK MEASURES BANKCREDIT MEASURES Available to Support Pvt. Deposits (3) M1 2 3 (4) (5) (6) Adjusted Credit Proxy OTHER Total Loans and Investments (7) Total Time Time Other than CD's (9) (8) (10) Thrift Institution Deposits 1/ (11) (12) Nondeposit Funds (13) (Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) ( revised Series 1970 1971 1972 1973 +6.0 +7.2 +10.6 +7.8 +9.3 +7.8 +7.7 +7.2 +8.7 +6.9 +10.1 +9.3 +6.0 +6.3 +8.7 +6.1 +8.4 +11.2 +11.1 +8.9 +8.3 +13.3 +13.0 +8.8 +8.2 +9.4 +11.6 +10.6 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +12.6 +17.9 +18.2 +15.7 +16.0 +11.1 +16.7 +13.5 +11.4 +8.0 +17.1 +16.6 +8.6 +14.4 + 7.7 +10.4 +19.4 +0.4 SeMtiIAnnually: 1st Half 1972 2nd Half 1972 +10.8 +9.9 +11.0 +4.1 +8.3 +11.5 +7.7 +9.4 +10.7 +10.9 +12.4 +12.8 +11.2 +11.3 +13.6 +14.7 +15.4 +14.8 +13.8 +12.3 +15.7 +16.3 +4.4 +6.0 -0.2 +0.6 +6.7 +8.6 +1.6 +12.7 +10.3 +7.8 +7.7 +4.4 +9.1 +8.2 +9.7 +7.5 +13.8 +7.0 +16.6 +8.0 +20.8 +10.2 +10.4 +11.8 +10.7 +6.1 +18.6 + 0.8 +1.2 +1.8 1st Half 1973 2nd Half 1973 -8.4 -7.6 +3.0 IstQtr. 2st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 19 1972 1972 1972 1972 +8.7 +12.6 +4.4 +15.1 +9.1 +12.6 -0.9 +9.2 +9.6 +6.9 +10.4 +12.2 +13.5 +11.0 +13.3 +12.0 +10.5 +11.6 +10.2 +12.1 +15.7 +11.1 +13.0 +15.8 +14.5 +15.7 +14.3 +14.8 +15.5 +11.7 +12.7 +11.4 +15.9 +14.9 +17.8 +14.2 +0.7 +3.7 +2.4 +3.6 -0.3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1973 1973 1973 1973 +6.4 +6.9 +10.6 +6.1 -3.6 +7.0 +11.3 +13.4 +7.8 +12.5 +14.2 +1.4 +8.6 +10.6 +5.1 +9.8 +14.6 +12.6 +10.5 +3.3 +19.9 +12.7 +11.4 +4.4 +22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1 + 9.9 +10.6 +10.6 +12.6 +11.4 +9.7 +4.6 + 7.6 +11.2 +7.4 +4.7 -3.9 +0.5 +0.7 +1.7 +0.1 sltQtr. 1974 +1.7 +1.5 +6.2 +9.4 +8.5 +16.2 +15.6 +12.5 +8.6 +15.9 -2.9 +10.3 +10.0 +9.9 +17.3 +18.5 +10.1 +13.3 +1.0 -6.3 +9.4 +10.8 +8.1 +6.6 +8.6 +10.9 +11.9 +6.3 +5.0 +3.9 +9.3 +10.1 +9.6 +9.7 +11.1 +22.3 +15.4 +11.0 +11.1 +8.6 +17.0 +5.7 +1.6 +2.7 +5.6 +17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +13.3 +16.7 +4.1 +6.7 +5.0 +1.5 +16.5 +22.3 +28.2 +22.5 +18.8 +11.2 +12.8 +18.9 + 9.8 + 3.7 + 3.3 +11.3 +12.9 + 7.0 + 9.6 +10.0 +10.8 +10.7 + 7.6 +13.0 +10.8 +16.1 +11.4 +10.1 +13.7 +11.6 +8.7 +9.0 +9.4 +10.4 +7.3 +2.3 +4.2 +6.8 +7.2 +8.6 +6.9 -0.3 +11.9 +20.0 +7.5 +11.5 +9.0 +7.6 +12.5 +1.3 +11.3 +31.9 +15.8 +15.0 +17.1 +16.5 +21.8 +15.2 +9.3 +30.8 +16.0 +14.2 +7.0 +8.1 +8.6 +7.8 +9.2 +6.6 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. +30.1 -21.1 +10.5 +14.7 +5.4 +27.2 -5.1 +9.4 +12.1 -4.3 +10.5 +26.8 -38.5 +1.8 +20.1 +0.5 +0.2 +24.9 -13.5 +21.9 +26.7 -1.6 +14.4 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. April p +35.7 -24.8 -5.4 +33.1 +45.9 -30.4 -10.0 +19.4 +0.5 U.S. Gov't Demand (14) (Dollar Change in Billions) (Series revised) Annually CD's +4.9 +1.2 + 1.3 + 4.4 + 5.5 + 3.8 + 2.9 + 0.7 + 1.9 + 2.4 + 0.4 - 2.9 - 1.8 + 0.8 +0.6 -0.5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.2 -0.4 +0.2 +0.3 42.7 +1.1 +1.1 +7.6 +0.1 +0.2 +0.9 +1.0 1/ Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data, NOTE: Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. p - Preliminary. May APPENDIX TABLE II RESERVES AND MONETARYVARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) Total (1) Period Nonborrowed Available to Support Pvt. Deposits Total (4) M, I Pvt. Dep. I (5) I (6) (Series revised) 425.2 172.2 473.0 182.6 525.5 198.7 642.7 727.9 822.8 3 (7) Adjusted Credit Proxy (3) Total Loans & Investments 1974 OTHER BANjCCREDIT MEASURES MONEYSTOCKMEASURES RESERVES 17, (9) Total Time (10) 332.9 364.3 406.4 438.5 487.6 559.0 229.2 270.9 313.3 Thrift Time Institution Other Deposital then, CD's (11) (1Z) Series revised) 217.5 203.9 237.9 254.8 297.2 269.9 NonDeposits ' . U.S. Gov't Desapd 6dsi (13) '(4) (15) 25.3 33.0 43.4 11.6 4.0 4.4 6.5 6.1 6.1 ANNUALLYDec. 1970 Dec. 1971 Dec. 1972 29,193 31,299 31,410 28,861 31,173 30,360 27,099 28,965 29,053 221.2 235.2 255.7 'IONTIILY 97 1 1--an. Feb. Mar. 12.199 31,634 31,910 31,037 30.040 30,085 29,439 29,368 29,621 256.7 257.9 258.1 199.6 200.4 200.1 529.6 532.4 534.7 830.2 835.8 940.4 409.7 413.5 421.2 567.3 578.5 586.8 317.6 323.6 331.2 272.9 274.5 276.6 300.6 303.5 305.7 44.7 49.1 54.6 5.0 4.5 4.9 6.7 6.1 7.6 Apr. May June 32,300 32,445 32,459 30,589 30,602 30,608 29,867 30,114 30,548 259.4 262.4 265.5 200.8 203.4 206.2 538.4 543.7 549.5 846.4 854.1 862.6 426.6 430.5 434.5 593.2 601.4 605.5 337.4 342.7 345.9 278.9 281.4 283.9 308.0 310.4 313.1 58.4 61.3 62.0 5.1 5.4 5.6 7.1 5.2 5.3 July Aug. Sept. 33,576 33,906 34,173 31,622 31,741 32,321 31,358 32.038 32,394 266.4 266.3 265.5 206.9 206.4 205.3 552.1 555.1 556.8 867.1 870.7 873.5 437.6 443.8 445.9 612.2 620.7 622.8 349.6 355.1 358.0 285.7 288.8 291.4 315.0 315.6 316.7 63.9 66.3 66.7 6.5 7.1 7.3 3.9 4.8 5.0 Oct. Nov. Dec. 34,942 34,857 35,105 33,466 33,463 33,807 32,845 32,714 32,912 266.6 269.2 271.4 206.1 208.2 209.7 561.9 567.3 572.1 880.3 887.7 894.8 446.5 447.5 449.6 626.3 628.9 629.7 359.1 360.1 363.5 295.3 298.1 300.6 318.5 320.4 322.7 63.8 62.0 62.8 6.9 7.1 7.4 6.0 5.8 4.9 35,850 35,108 34,949 35.914 34,799 33,916 33,634 34,178 32,799 32,791 33,117 33,669 270.8 273.7 276.2 278.1 208.9 211.1 212.8 214.1 575.4 581.9 586.2 590.2 900.4 909.0 915.8 921.6 454.3 454.8 459.1 471.3 638.0 646.0 655.2 664.2 370.1 374.8 377.7 387.4 304.6 308.2 310.0 312.1 325.0 327.1 329.6 331.4 65.5 66.6 67.7 75.3 7.5 7.7 8.6 9.6 6.2 3.0 3.7 4.6 35,398 35,040 36,161 36,057 33,895 33,846 34,345 34,119 33,240 33,117 33,794 33,773 277.4 277.6 280.0 277.7 214.0 213.5 215.9 213.8 588.0 589.2 592.2 590.1 466.3 468.4 472.9 471.8 382.0 385.4 387.0 389.2 310.5 311.5 312.2 312.3 71.5 73.9 74.8 76.9 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 36,737 36,385 34,580 34,768 34,258 34,151 276.9 278.4 212.9 213.9 589.8 591.1 473.7 476.4 390.8 392.3 312.9 312.7 77.9 79.6 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. April 1974--April May 3 10 17 24 lp 8p 10.2 10.4 4.4 5.3 1/ Estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. p - Preliminary. NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) 1972 1973 '3 M2 M1 M 0 M I 9.0 5.3 12,3 II 6.2 8.2 8.9 III 8.7 8.2 IV 9.9 8.4 I 3.8 7.0 II 11.5 7.5 5.6 Q- 12.5 9.8 11.0 11.7 10.8 10.8 13.3 13.0 10.6 10.2 12.0 12.2 8.6 10.2 7.0 11.1 5.3 8.8 10.6 9.0 7.9 5.1 7.5 8.8 8.9 4.5 11.0 8.9 9.8 7.9 7.1 6.7 9.9 9.9 9.4 9.4 IV I 0 13.5 11.0 IVI 1974 M M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives M1 M M3 M2 Q M Qa NSL Alt. A 1974 II III II & III Combined 6.7 5.6 6.2 8.5 5.7 7.1 7.0 6.6 6.8 8.3 6.6 7.4 6.1 5.6 5.8 7.5 5.6 6.5 5.7 4.6 5.1 7.4 4.7 6.0 5.3 7.2 3.5 5.3 Alt. B 1974 II III II & III Combined 6.4 4.7 5.5 8.3 4.9 6.6 6.6 5.3 5.9 8.1 5.5 6.8 Alt. C II III II & III Combined 1974 5.9 3.6 4.7 8.2 3.9 6.0 6.1 3.6 4.8 7.9 4.0 5.9 4.2 4.2 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. May 17, 1974 Appendix Table V Comparison of Money Stock Growth Rates M1 Old series 2 Revised series 1/ Old series Revised series 1/ 5.7 6.1 8.6 8.9 I H2 7.7 3.7 7.7 4.4 9.1 7.8 9.1 8.2 Q3 Q4 -0.2 7.5 0.0 8.9 5.2 10.1 5.3 11.0 1974 Q1 6.7 7.1 9.4 9.9 1973 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 14.2 4.1 -0.9 -3.6 5.0 10.4 7.1 14.2 4.0 -0.5 -3.6 5.0 11.7 9.8 12.8 5.7 6.3 3.7 10.8 10.9 8.5 12.8 5.7 6.5 3.7 11.0 11.5 10.2 1974 Jan. Feb. Mar. April -3.6 12.9 10.6 7.4 -2.7 12.9 11.0 8.3 6.3 13.4 8.3 7.8 6.9 13.6 8.9 8.2 1973 1973 1/ Incorporates benchmark data from December 1973 call report. Appendix Table VI Money Supply Growth Rates M1 1973 1974 M 1 less Foreign Official Deposits M less Foreign Official Deposits and Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks January 4.7 5.2 5.3 February 5.6 5.6 6.7 March 0.9 0.5 0.9 April 6.0 6.5 6.6 May 13.9 13.0 11.8 June 14.2 14.7 14.4 July 4.1 3.6 August -0.5 -0.5 September -3.6 -3.6 October 5.0 5.5 November 11.7 December 9.8 10.9 2.8 -3.7 4.6 10.1 9.9 8.2 January -2.7 -2.7 -3.6 February 12.9 12.5 13.1 March 11.0 11.5 11.2 April 8.3 6.1 5.8
@FedFRASER