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For use at 2:00 PM EST
Wednesday
April 19, 2023

The Beige Book
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions
By Federal Reserve District

April 2023

Federal Reserve Districts

Minneapolis

Boston
New York
Chicago

Cleveland

Philadelphia

San Francisco
Kansas City

Dallas

Alaska and Hawaii
are part of the
San Francisco District.

St. Louis

Richmond

Atlanta

The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves
American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected
on or before April 10, 2023. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside
the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

National Summary
Boston

1
A-1

The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current
economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety
of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s
sources. Reports are published eight times per year.

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What is the purpose of the Beige Book?

First District

New York
Second District

Philadelphia

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Third District

Cleveland

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Fourth District

Richmond

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Fifth District

Atlanta

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Sixth District

Chicago

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Seventh District

St. Louis

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Eighth District

Minneapolis

I-1

Ninth District

Kansas City

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Tenth District

Dallas

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Eleventh District

San Francisco
Twelfth District

What is the Beige Book?

L-1

The Beige Book is intended to characterize the change in economic
conditions since the last report. Outreach for the Beige Book is one of
many ways the Federal Reserve System engages with businesses and
other organizations about economic developments in their communities. Because this information is collected from a wide range of contacts through a variety of formal and informal methods, the Beige Book
can complement other forms of regional information gathering. The
Beige Book is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve
officials.

How is the information collected?
Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic
conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors, plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by businesses, community organizations, economists, market experts, and other
sources. Contacts are not selected at random; rather, Banks strive to
curate a diverse set of sources that can provide accurate and objective
information about a broad range of economic activities. The Beige
Book serves as a regular summary of this information for the public.

How is the information used?
The information from contacts supplements the data and analysis used
by Federal Reserve economists and staff to assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. The qualitative nature of the
Beige Book creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in
the available economic data. This information enables comparison of
economic conditions in different parts of the country, which can be
helpful for assessing the outlook for the national economy.

The Beige Book does not have the type of information I’m looking
for. What other information is available?
The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring surveys of businesses, households, and community organizations. A list of
statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve Board is available
here, links to each of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here,
and a summary of the System’s community outreach is available here.
In addition, Fed Listens events have been held around the country to
hear about how monetary policy affects peoples’ daily lives and livelihoods. The System also relies on a variety of advisory councils—
whose members are drawn from a wide array of businesses, non-profit
organizations, and community groups—to hear diverse perspectives on
the economy in carrying out its responsibilities.

National Summary
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Overall Economic Activity
Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks. Nine Districts reported either no change or only a slight
change in activity this period while three indicated modest growth. Expectations for future growth were mostly unchanged as well; however, two Districts saw outlooks deteriorate. Consumer spending was generally seen as flat to
down slightly amid continued reports of moderate price growth. Auto sales remained steady overall, with only a couple
of Districts reporting improved sales and inventory levels. Travel and tourism picked up across much of the country this
period. Manufacturing activity was widely reported as flat or down even as supply chains continued to improve. Transportation and freight volumes were also flat to down, according to several Districts. On balance, residential real estate
sales and new construction activity softened modestly. Nonresidential construction was little changed while sales and
leasing activity was generally flat to down. Lending volumes and loan demand generally declined across consumer and
business loan types. Several Districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and
concerns about liquidity. The majority of Districts reported steady to increasing demand and sales for nonfinancial services. Agriculture conditions were mostly unchanged in recent weeks while some softening was reported in energy
markets.

Labor Markets
Employment growth moderated somewhat this period as several Districts reported a slower pace of growth than in recent Beige Book reports. A small number of firms reported mass layoffs, and those were centered at a subset of the
largest companies. Some other firms opted to allow for natural attrition to occur, and to hire only for critically important
roles. Contacts reported the labor market becoming less tight as several Districts noted increases to the labor supply.
Additionally, firms benefited from better employee retention, which allowed them to hire for open roles while not constantly trying to back-fill positions. Wages have shown some moderation but remain elevated. Several Districts reported
declining needs for off-cycle wage increases compared to last year.

Prices
Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be
slowing. Contacts noted modest-to-sharp declines in the prices of nonlabor inputs and significantly lower freight costs
in recent weeks. Nevertheless, producer prices for finished goods rose modestly this period, albeit at a slightly slower
pace. Selling price pressures eased broadly in manufacturing and services sectors. Consumer prices generally increased due to still-elevated demand as well as higher inventory and labor costs. Prices for homes and rents leveled
out in most Districts but remained at near record highs. Contacts expected further relief from input cost pressures but
anticipated changing their prices more frequently compared to previous years.

Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston

New York

Business activity was roughly even. Tourism contacts
enjoyed moderate growth, while retail sales were flat,
and manufacturing slowed. Home sales fell further.
Headcounts rose modestly and wage growth was moderate. Prices increased modestly amid further easing of
cost pressures. Some contacts worried that smaller
banks might restrict lending over liquidity concerns,
putting a damper on economic activity.

Regional economic activity was little changed, though
goods production picked up noticeably. The labor market
has remained solid, with ongoing slight job growth and
wage gains. Inflationary pressures moderated somewhat
but remained widespread. Conditions in the broad finance sector deteriorated sharply coinciding with recent
stress in the banking sector.

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National Summary
Philadelphia

St. Louis

Business activity appeared to decline slightly during the
current Beige Book period after increasing last period.
Consumer demand ticked down, while employment held
steady. Wage growth slowed to a modest pace. Price
inflation subsided but continued to grow modestly. Banks
reported tighter lending standards. Expectations were
subdued as sentiment remained cautious.

Economic conditions have remained unchanged since
our previous report. Labor markets remained tight, but
reports of easing increased. Firms struggled to pass on
price increase to customers, and contacts across a
range of industries reported supply chain improvements.
Banking contacts reported slowing loan growth and a
decline in deposits, but expressed confidence in their
overall position.

Cleveland

Minneapolis

Economic activity was generally flat in the Fourth District
and developments in the banking sector appeared to
have very little impact on either recent economic activity
or credit availability. Labor demand eased, and the supply of workers increased, particularly for lower-wage
positions. Wage and other cost pressures continued to
ease.

Economic activity in the region grew slightly in recent
weeks. Employment gains were modest, and labor supply improved slightly. Prices were steady and wages
rose slightly; levels for both remained high. Consumer
spending was flat. Manufacturing declined a bit, but the
outlook was more positive. Construction activity improved slightly, save for residential building. Minority-and
women-owned firms reported steady activity.

Richmond
The regional economy contracted slightly in recent
weeks. Manufacturing activity, retail spending, and loan
demand softened. Travel and tourism picked up moderately while nonfinancial service providers indicated
steady demand. Real estate firms reported reduced
activity, while transportation freight volumes contracted
moderately. Employment rose slightly with moderate
increase in wages. Prices grew at a strong rate.

Kansas City
Total economic activity across the Tenth District declined
slightly in March and April. However, almost every business contact reported no pull back in planned capital
expenditures, hiring plans or planned wage increases in
response to recent financial volatility. Worker retention
was reportedly much higher, even as wage growth
slowed. Households pulled back on spending, particularly on bigger ticket items like cars or home construction
projects.

Atlanta
Economic activity grew modestly. Labor markets improved further, and wage pressures eased slightly.
Some nonlabor costs moderated and others remained
unstable. Retail sales softened. Auto sales were robust.
Tourism activity remained strong. Housing demand
improved further. Transportation was mixed. Loan
growth was solid. Energy demand was healthy. Agriculture remained mixed.

Dallas
Modest growth continued, with steady gains in service
sector activity and a pickup in home sales and manufacturing output. Job growth was modest, though hiring
slowed sharply in services. The pace of price increases
slowed. Outlooks were largely negative, and contacts
voiced concern about weakening demand, a potential
recession, and the spillover effects of the recent bank
failures on the broader economy.

Chicago
Economic activity was little changed. Employment increased moderately; consumer spending, business
spending, and construction and real estate were flat;
nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and
manufacturing demand decreased modestly. Prices and
wages rose moderately, and financial conditions tightened moderately. Agricultural incomes were expected to
be lower in 2023 than in 2022.

San Francisco
Economic activity expanded slightly. Employment levels
were steady amid tight labor market conditions, while
wage and price growth moderated further. Demand for
retail goods softened, while demand for services was
robust. Manufacturing activity was stable, while conditions in the agriculture sector slowed somewhat. Residential and commercial real estate activity fell, and lending activity declined substantially.

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Federal Reserve Bank of

Boston
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
Business activity in the First District was flat on average. Tourism maintained its strong momentum, with moderate
further increases in air travel and convention activity, while retail sales were steady on balance amid mixed results.
Demand softened moderately for manufacturers, although some continued to experience solid revenue growth. Software and IT services firms reported stable demand and somewhat higher profits. Residential real estate sales declined
modestly, as low inventories and high prices continued to deter transactions. Commercial real estate activity was flat,
but credit was expected to tighten moving forward. Employment increased modestly and wage growth was moderate.
Prices increased at a modest pace and slower price growth was expected for the rest of 2023. The outlook was mostly
positive, but some contacts worried that smaller banks might restrict lending over liquidity concerns, putting a damper on
economic activity.
modest price hikes for selected products in addition to
annual cost-of-living adjustments built into contracts.
Price changes were mixed among manufacturers, including moderate increases by some and more aggressive
promotions and discounts by others. Retail prices were
largely stable. Hotel room rates in the Greater Boston
area declined in line with seasonal expectations but have
increased 10 percent relative to the same time last year.
Cost pressures abated noticeably, as contacts noted
modest-to-sharp declines in the prices of raw materials
and significantly lower freight costs. On balance, the
outlook called for further easing of price growth for the
remainder of 2023, and some contacts planned to hold
prices strictly fixed moving forward on worries that additional markups would be counterproductive.

Labor Markets
Headcounts increased modestly on balance, led by
strong labor demand in the First District’s hospitality and
tourism sectors, and wage growth was steady at a moderate pace. Contacts in manufacturing said that the labor
market softened significantly, making for much easier
hiring and helping to alleviate wage pressures some.
employment was roughly flat, and its wage growth was
moderate, as contacts said that turnover was stable at a
manageable pace, marking an improvement from one
year earlier. A clothing retailer was engaged in hiring
additional warehouse workers, but the pace of filling the
200 openings was slower than anticipated. Robust convention activity and an anticipated increase in business
travel from Asia gave a moderate boost to food and
beverage staffing at Boston-area hotels. Cape Cod
hospitality contacts ramped up efforts to recruit international workers to address labor shortages in advance of
the busy summer season, and Massachusetts has funded an effort to place visa holders in temporary housing to
facilitate such hiring. Looking ahead, labor demand is
expected to soften modestly on balance, but only one
firm—a manufacturer—was planning to make significant
reductions in staff in the near future. Wage growth was
predicted to slow to a modest average pace.

Retail and Tourism
First District retail contacts reported flat sales on average, while tourism contacts saw moderate further increases in activity relative to seasonal trends. A clothing
retailer experienced softer demand throughout the early
months of 2023, but revenues held steady due to earlier
price increases. Cape Cod retailers experienced strong
first quarter sales, but a large-scale infrastructure project
crimped activity in recent weeks. Based on advance
bookings, hospitality contacts on the Cape expect summer 2023 occupancy and room rates to match last summer’s record-setting results. Airline passenger traffic
through Boston increased steadily in recent months, on

Prices
Price increases were modest on average as cost pressures eased further. Prices were mostly flat among
software and IT services firms, although one enacted

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Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
both domestic and international routes, reaching roughly
95 percent of pre-pandemic levels as of the first quarter
of 2023. The Greater Boston hotel occupancy rate increased relative to seasonal trends, and spring and
summer bookings continued to climb. Scheduled convention activity and cruise bookings for the spring and
summer are expected to exceed 2019 levels.

balance received) increasingly generous concessions.
Conditions in the retail market worsened slightly in response to patches of weakness in consumer spending,
and as a result firms became more cautious with capital
spending. Concerning the outlook, contacts expected to
see slight to moderate further declines in office and retail
leasing activity moving forward, and perceived growing
constraints on investment activity. In particular, several
contacts predicted that lending to the commercial real
estate sector would become more conservative in response to heightened concerns about banking risks, and
one expressed that the credit contraction could be large
enough to spill over to other sectors of the economy.

Manufacturing and Related Services
Manufacturing contacts reported mixed revenue results,
but demand was moderately softer on balance. Some
contacts reported modestly higher sales but also said
that the pace of revenue growth had slowed recently. For
one firm, overall results were hit by a steep slowdown in
demand from customers in the semiconductor industry.
Others experienced weaker sales as their customers
continued to draw on inventories accumulated in 2022 in
response to supply chain concerns. A contact in the
semiconductor industry said that industry sales were
down but that their own sales were up due to investment
demand from electric car manufacturers. None of our
contacts reported major revisions to capital expenditure
plans, and a few pointed to increased spending on automation. Contacts were generally optimistic for their own
results for the rest of 2023, although several described
the outlook for the economy more broadly as highly
uncertain.

Residential Real Estate
First District home sales softened in February (the latest
month for which data were available) following a temporary uptick in sales in January that was attributed to a
slight—yet partly transient—decline in mortgage rates.
Closed single-family sales were down sharply on a yearover-year basis, and in Boston dipped to their lowest
level in over a decade. Condo sales were roughly flat
since the previous report. Inventories grew over-the-year
on balance, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than was
reported last time, and several contacts noted that the
supply of homes for sale remained extremely limited.
Home prices showed signs of softening amid growing
buyer frustration over the lack of home affordability.
Median single-family home prices nonetheless posted
modest year-over-year increases on balance, a fact that
one contact attributed to a decline in the proportion of
starter homes on the market, although the median home
price in Boston was down moderately from a year earlier.
Looking ahead, contacts expressed concerns that low
inventories and high mortgage rates could dampen
activity during the typically busy spring sales season.■

Software and IT Services
Demand for software and IT services was stable on
balance. Revenue growth at one firm exceeded expectations, and another experienced an ongoing pullback by
clients facing internal liquidity concerns. Profits and
margins were modestly higher on average. Capital and
technology spending was unchanged and was expected
to hold steady for most firms, although one mentioned
the possibility that capital expenditures could soften
moving forward. Contacts were largely optimistic and
expected demand for their own products and services to
hold steady moving forward. Although one contact perceived that the risk of a widespread banking crisis had
abated recently, another contact felt that nervousness
about the banking sector could dampen aggregate economic activity.

Commercial Real Estate
Commercial real estate activity in the First District was
mostly unchanged since February. In the industrial property market, rents continued to level off even though
leasing demand was still deemed strong relative to supply. Office leasing activity was mostly flat, although contacts noted a modest slowing of deal flow in both Boston
and Providence. Office asking rents were roughly stable,
but one contact noted that tenants demanded (and on

For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.bostonfed.org/regional‐economy

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Federal Reserve Bank of

New York
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Second District was little changed in the latest reporting period. The labor market has remained
solid: employment increased slightly despite ongoing difficulty finding workers, wages continued to increase, and many
businesses plan to add staff in the months ahead. Inflationary pressures eased somewhat but remained widespread.
Supply availability, while still constrained, continued to improve, and goods production picked up noticeably. Consumer
spending was flat to up slightly in recent weeks, while tourism has continued to strengthen. The home sales market has
continued to pick up and the rental market has been steady. On balance, commercial real estate markets were mostly
unchanged. Conditions in the broad finance sector deteriorated sharply, coinciding with recent stress in the banking
sector. Regional banks continued to report widespread declines in loan demand, ongoing credit tightening, and modestly rising mortgage delinquency rates. Amid heightened uncertainty, most businesses do not expect economic conditions
to improve in the coming months.

Labor Markets

Prices

Labor market conditions have remained solid. On balance, employment increased slightly in the latest reporting period despite ongoing difficulty finding workers
across the region. However, businesses in the manufacturing, construction, and education & health sectors
indicated that employment declined in recent weeks.
Even so, contacts at two major employment agencies
noted ongoing strong labor demand and continued to
indicate that worries of widespread weakening in the
labor market have not materialized. Indeed, thus far,
layoffs have been concentrated in large companies, and
mostly among their workers who are outside of the region. Further, a New York City employment agency indicated that the broader local labor market has yet to experience noticeable ripple effects from recent stress in the
banking sector. Looking ahead, on net, businesses plan
to add staff in the coming months.

Inflationary pressures moderated somewhat but remained widespread. Businesses reported that the pace
of input price increases slowed slightly in recent weeks.
Still, the costs of transportation, energy, and many raw
materials remained high. The pace of selling price increases also eased somewhat, especially in the service
sector though not among retailers or leisure & hospitality
firms. Fewer businesses than in the last report expect
prices to increase.

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending was flat to up slightly in recent
weeks as consumers continued to face pressure from
high inflation and heightened uncertainty. Nonauto retailers indicated that business was sluggish and down
slightly in recent weeks, while spending on travel-related
services, recreation, and in restaurants and bars has
remained strong. Auto dealers in upstate New York
reported that sales of new vehicles were steady with
ongoing improvements in inventory levels, while sales of
used vehicles firmed. Consumer confidence in the region
rose to a nearly two-year high in March, driven by growing optimism among New York City residents.

Wages continued to increase, though at a somewhat
slower pace than earlier in the year as major compensation adjustments tend to be concentrated at the beginning
of the year for most workers. Businesses expect wage
increases to continue to moderate.

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Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Residential rental markets have been steady. After peaking last summer, rents including concessions have been
little changed near record highs in Manhattan, Brooklyn,
and Queens and rental vacancy rates have remained
exceptionally low as people gradually continue to return to
New York City. Rents have also plateaued at a high level
in much of upstate New York.

Manufacturing and Distribution
Manufacturing activity picked up in recent weeks, following several months of contraction. New orders and shipments surged, and businesses indicated that supply
availability, while still constrained, continued to improve.
However, businesses in wholesale distribution and transportation & warehousing reported declining activity.
While manufacturers remain mildly optimistic, distribution
-related businesses have turned pessimistic.

Commercial real estate markets were little changed in
recent weeks. Office vacancy rates edged up slightly in
and around New York City and were steady across upstate
New York, while office rents were mostly flat across the
District. New York City’s retail market weakened somewhat, with vacancy rates up slightly and rents trending
down. Vacancy rates remained at low levels in the industrial market and rents trended up modestly.

Services
On balance, service sector activity rose modestly,
though conditions varied across sectors. Personal services businesses reported moderate weakening, while
providers of business & professional, education & health,
and leisure & hospitality services noted some growth in
activity after a sustained period of weakness. Businesses in the service sector generally expect little change in
economic conditions in the months ahead.

Overall, construction contacts reported weakening conditions in March and early April. Office construction remained steady at a low level in most of the District, though
there were some new starts in northern New Jersey, Long
Island, and upstate New York. Industrial construction was
solid, but little changed across the District. Multi-family
residential starts picked up from low levels in Manhattan
and parts of upstate New York but remained weak elsewhere.

Tourism activity in New York City continued to strengthen and is nearing pre-pandemic levels. While domestic
travel remains strong, international travel continues to
lag. Visitors from Asia—especially China—remain noticeably absent, in part due to long wait times for visas.
Though business travel has yet to fully bounce back, it
has picked up beyond expectations in recent weeks.
Demand for hotel rooms continued to increase with
advance bookings trending up as people have grown
more comfortable traveling. Even with the steady uptick
in visitors to New York City, the reduction in daily commuters continues to exert pressure on the City’s retailers
and entertainment-related businesses.

Banking and Finance
Conditions in the broad finance sector deteriorated sharply
coinciding with recent stress in the banking sector. Small
to medium-sized banks in the District reported widespread
declines in loan demand across all loan segments. Credit
standards tightened noticeably for all loan types, and loan
spreads continued to narrow. Deposit rates moved higher.
Finally, delinquency rates edged up on residential and
commercial mortgages.

Real Estate and Construction
Residential sales have picked up with the start of the
spring selling season, with prices steady at a high level.
Sales activity in and around New York City has continued to increase beyond the seasonal norm. By contrast,
real estate contacts in upstate New York indicated that
the spring selling season has gotten off to a slower start
in part due to unseasonably harsh weather, though
demand remains strong for homes in the middle of the
region’s price range. While listings have increased, the
inventory of available homes has remained exceptionally
low across the region except in Manhattan. Contacts
pointed to heightened uncertainty and the prevalence of
homeowners with mortgages locked in at historically low
rates as key factors keeping some people from listing
their homes and moving.

Community Perspectives
Community leaders noted that economic challenges for
lower-income families have been increasing as pandemicera assistance programs wind down. With the temporary
boost in SNAP benefits and Medicaid supplementation
being phased out, community organizations are stepping
up their efforts to support the increase in vulnerable families facing difficulty affording food and healthcare. Contacts
expressed concern that state and local budgetary pressures may impede the provision of community services.
Labor shortages and understaffing in the not-for-profit
sector have just begun to ease, with increases in the number and quality of applicants. ■
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/regional-economy

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Federal Reserve Bank of

Philadelphia
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
On balance, business activity in the Third District appears to have declined slightly after a small increase last period.
Consumer demand appeared to tick down, as contacts detailed slower traffic and smaller purchases by customers.
Inflation and higher interest rates continued to weigh on demand for big-ticket items, including homes and autos. Employment held steady as the demand for labor cooled. Wage growth eased to a modest pace, and inflation continued to
subside but remained moderate. Overall, firms continued to report less difficulty in hiring and fewer supply chain disruptions. Bank lending to businesses declined, as contacts within the banking industry reported a tightening of lending
standards. On balance, expectations for economic growth over the next six months remained subdued, as both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms continued to expect slight growth.

Labor Markets

lower compensation levels was just under 5 percent.
Contacts noted warehouses have started to cut hours
and jobs, which has led to lower wage pressure for other
businesses in the area.

Employment held steady following a modest rise in the
prior period. Contacts reported instituting hiring freezes,
cutting overtime, and conducting layoffs. Other firms
communicated they were not filling positions left open by
employee departures. Multiple contacts, including staffing firms, noted that hiring continued to be easier, with
more applicants, lower turnover, and less wage pressure. In our monthly surveys, employment growth appeared to be negligible, with most firms reporting no
change in employment levels in March. The index for
employment in the manufacturing sector turned negative
and fell to its lowest level since May 2020.

Prices
On balance, firms reported that prices continued to rise
moderately; however, they noted that the rate of price
increases appears to be slowing. In our monthly surveys,
the prices paid and prices received indexes declined for
both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms in
March and are below nonrecessionary historical averages, except for the index of nonmanufacturers’ input prices. On balance, contacts also noted fewer supply chain
disruptions.

However, firms still described staffing as one of their
primary challenges. Contacts continued to report difficulty staffing night and weekend shifts. Firms revealed the
need to frequently move workers along the production
line or overstaff shifts to accommodate the ongoing high
number of employees calling out.

Two-fifths of the manufacturing contacts expected to pay
higher prices over the next six months, while slightly less
than one-quarter expected to receive higher prices for
their own goods.

Manufacturing

Firms reported that wage inflation has continued to
subside since the prior month and grew at only a modest
pace – down from a moderate rise in each of the eight
prior periods. In our monthly surveys, the share of nonmanufacturing firms reporting higher wage and benefit
costs per employee dropped to 30 percent – its lowest
level since March 2021; the share of firms reporting

Manufacturing activity declined moderately – after declining modestly in the prior period. The index for new orders fell from last period and was negative for the 10th
consecutive month. Moreover, the shipments index
dropped sharply and turned negative. Contacts confirmed that demand continued to slow and backlogs

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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
continued to fall.

Credit card volumes were essentially flat after rising
moderately during the same period last year – a sign of a
potential pullback by consumers.

Despite the decline in manufacturing activity from the
prior period, nearly half of the firms estimated increased
total production growth for the first quarter of 2023 compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. Most firms reported labor supply and supply chains as slight or moderate
constraints to capacity utilization.

Banks reported a strong decline in commercial and
industrial loan volumes. Most contacts within the banking
industry confirmed a tightening of lending standards or
that discussions were ongoing regarding a change in
lending behavior, following the failures of Signature Bank
and Silicon Valley Bank. Furthermore, multiple contacts
noted they focused on lending to existing customers and
became more prudent in lending to new customers.

Expectations among manufacturers for growth in the
next six months remained subdued. The index for future
activity turned negative, and the future indexes for new
orders, shipments, and employment were little changed.
The index for future capital expenditures turned negative
for the first time since 2009.

Real Estate and Construction
Homebuilders reported steady sales following an unexpected uptick in the prior period. Contacts continued to
attribute the recent improvement to incentives, discounts
on older inventory, and new homes built with smaller
footprints and lower-cost features.

Consumer Spending
On balance, retailers (nonauto) and restaurateurs reported a slight decline in sales in the current period – after
those grew slightly in the prior period. Contacts reported
sales grew on a year-over-year basis because of higher
prices but described a slowdown in customer traffic and
fewer items purchased per visit. One contact also noted
the expiration of supplemental SNAP benefits was a
drag on sales in March.

Existing home sales fell slightly from already low levels
in most markets – following a moderate decline in the
prior period. Contacts noted that the lack of new listings
and the continued decline in housing affordability meant
the normally busy spring housing market may fail to
materialize.

Tourism contacts reported an uptick in activity,
particularly in urban areas, after reporting steady activity
in the prior period. Auto dealers again reported a slight
increase in sales as manufacturers continued to deliver
more new cars. However, contacts noted some softening
of demand because of higher financing costs. The increased inventory and softer demand has prompted
some dealers to lower prices and reintroduce incentives.

Requests for assistance with housing and utility bills fell
but continued to dominate the share of 211 requests in
New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Almost 32 percent of all
requests in the two states were related to housing, while
27 percent of the requests regarded utility bills.
Market participants in commercial real estate continued
to report steady current construction activity but noted
that more projects in the pipeline have been delayed or
canceled. Leasing activity continued to slow modestly.
Rent growth in multifamily housing eased slightly, and
landlords started to offer leasing incentives in some
markets. Demand for life sciences space remained
strong, but demand for warehouse space softened. ■

Nonfinancial Services
On balance, nonmanufacturing activity appeared to
decline slightly after growing slightly last period. The
index for general activity at the firm level fell to a nearzero reading, and the new orders index turned negative
as the share of firms reporting decreases exceeded the
share reporting increases. The index for sales also declined from the prior period but remained positive.

Financial Services
The volume of bank lending (excluding credit cards)
grew moderately during the period (not seasonally adjusted) – faster than the prior period but comparable with
growth in the same period last year. Inflationary effects
on big-ticket items continued to boost loan volume
growth during the current year relative to past years.
During the period, District banks reported moderate
growth in home mortgages and modest growth in auto
loans, other consumer lending, and commercial real
estate lending. Home equity lines declined modestly.

For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.philadelphiafed.org/regional-economy

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Federal Reserve Bank of

Cleveland
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
Reports from Fourth District business contacts were consistent with generally flat aggregate economic activity, though
conditions continued to vary by industry segment. While consumer spending appeared to firm somewhat from that of the
prior period, it remained soft, and business spending was mostly flat. Concerns about developments in the banking
industry reportedly had limited impact on recent business activity, though a small share of contacts reported a modest
decrease in credit availability. However, many contacts indicated that these developments had increased uncertainty.
Hiring slowed as firms’ demand for additional workers eased and as a larger share of contacts sought to reduce headcount. Labor availability appeared to increase, particularly for those seeking to fill lower-wage positions. Wage and other
nonlabor input cost pressures continued to trend lower, while price pressures eased from those of the previous reporting
period.

success yet.” That said, contacts in construction and
manufacturing noted that costs for steel and concrete
products increased recently. One steel producer said
that he expected steel costs to rise further in the second
quarter, but he expected costs to fall in the third quarter.
More broadly, contacts expected further relief from input
cost pressures in the months ahead.

Labor Markets
Employment growth in the Fourth District appeared to
be flat in recent weeks. The apparent easing in labor
demand was illustrated in more-frequent reports of
employers reducing staffing through attrition, hiring
freezes, or layoffs. Moreover, some banking and manufacturing firms noted replacing only revenue-generating
positions or hard-to-fill production positions while holding off on hiring support staff. Firms looking to increase
staff more frequently stated that labor supply had improved recently. On balance, firms planned to maintain
current staffing levels or selectively fill critical positions
in the coming weeks.

Overall selling-price pressures eased from those of the
prior reporting period, but they varied across industries.
On the one hand, natural gas prices fell amid mild winter
and early spring weather, and freight prices decreased
because of a drop in demand. On the other hand, some
manufacturers said they continued to raise prices to
“catch up” from the cost increases over the prior two
years. Similarly, some retail contacts reported selectively
raising prices to cover higher costs, though they did so
cautiously to remain competitive.

The softer demand for labor and the increased labor
supply were accompanied by further easing in wage
pressures. The share of contacts that reported increased pay fell to 36 percent, the lowest share in more
than two years. Moreover, 62 percent of contacts reported holding wages steady, many in response to declining
margins or increased labor availability. Even so, many
contacts across industries indicated that wage increases
remained necessary to attract and retain skilled labor.

Consumer Spending
Reports suggest that consumer spending firmed somewhat from that of the previous reporting period. Still,
demand for discretionary items remained soft as households faced continued pressure from inflation and increased interest rates. One general merchandiser noted
that higher prices for food and other essentials continued
“eating up more of the customer’s wallet,” leading customers to favor lower-priced options such as generic
brands. Auto sales dipped in part because increasing
interest rates and higher vehicle prices pushed out of the

Prices
Nonlabor input cost pressures eased in recent weeks,
continuing a trend that started last summer. Several
contacts reported that their overall costs had flattened.
One homebuilder said he recently started “pressing
people to lower [their] prices but haven't had much

D-1

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
market many buyers who want, rather than need, a new
vehicle. One dealer hoped that more manufacturer incentives would increase demand, but he cautioned that
higher credit standards had become an additional headwind for potential buyers. On balance, contacts expected
consumer spending to remain stable in the coming
months.

among banks and to outflows to higher-yielding alternatives. Looking forward, loan demand was expected to
soften further in coming months.

Nonfinancial Services
Freight activity declined this reporting period. One hauler
mentioned that contract customers have cut back their
orders and that the spot market for freight has also
weakened. Contacts anticipated that freight demand
would continue to decline. Generally, professional and
business services contacts expected demand to be flat.

Manufacturing
Overall demand for manufactured goods increased
slightly from that in the previous period. Orders for aerospace-related products remained strong, but demand
generally weakened for items from manufacturers tied to
the housing and automotive sectors. Some manufacturers benefitted from an increase in international orders,
particularly from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. That
said, heightened uncertainty tempered some manufacturers’ expectations because of a decrease in new orders and backlogs.

Community Conditions
Nonprofit contacts reported increased demand for their
services over the past six months because of rising costs
for food, shelter, and utilities. One contact noted that
food pantry use is up 30 percent compared to prepandemic levels, and another mentioned an increase in
the number of first-time users of food assistance. Several contacts said that homelessness was rising and that
more families were moving in with relatives because of
higher rents, increased evictions, and a shortage of
affordable housing. According to multiple contacts, fewer
landlords were accepting Section 8 vouchers, a situation
which contributed to the housing shortage. Some contacts who offer loan products to households and businesses noted that rising interest rates increased the
demand for their products. One community service provider saw a rise in applications for zero-interest, smalldollar loans, and a community development financial
institution contact reported that more individuals were
seeking funding through her enterprise because of higher interest rates at local banks. ■

Real Estate and Construction
Demand for residential construction and real estate
continued to be hindered by higher interest rates. One
homebuilder stated, “As long as interest rates stay high,
demand is going to be down. We’re still selling, but it’s
down from where it was a year ago.” Given low inventories, some builders reported that demand for housing
seems stronger than expected. Some builders are attempting to offset higher interest rates through various
incentives, including rate buydowns.
Nonresidential construction and real estate contacts
indicated that demand had changed little in recent weeks
on balance. While a few contacts reported that projects
had been put on hold, others indicated they have still
been able to secure new projects. One general contractor noted that demand had remained stable, but projects
were taking longer to get started because the firm had
been spending more time working on budgeting issues in
the preconstruction phase. Several contacts anticipated
construction and leasing activity to soften further in coming weeks because of rising interest rates and banks’
tightening credit.

Financial Services
Overall, loan demand continued to decrease, albeit at a
slower pace than in the prior period. Several bankers
reported that recent developments in the sector added to
heightened economic uncertainty that motivated customers to reach out about the safety of their deposits. Others
posited that the increased uncertainty along with high
interest rates had reduced borrowing. Lenders indicated
that delinquency rates remained low for both commercial
and consumer loans. Core deposits continued to decline,
a situation which bankers attributed to rate competition

For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.clevelandfed.org/en/region/regional‐analysis

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Federal Reserve Bank of

Richmond
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
The Fifth District economy contracted slightly since our previous report. Manufacturing activity softened as new orders
fell and more customers started pushing back on price increases. District ports and trucking companies reported declines in freight volumes, particularly a sharp decline in import volumes, leading to lower shipping and trucking spot
rates. Consumer spending on retail goods and autos slowed slightly; however, spending on tourism and travel increased
moderately. Residential real estate markets softened as closings and pending sales declined while listing prices held
flat. Commercial real estate activity declined, on balance. The retail and industrial real estate segments remained
strong; however, the remaining segments, particularly office, softened. Financial institutions continued to report modest
declines in loan demand. Deposit levels also declined, on balance, despite some institutions reporting an inflow of deposits from new clients. Demand for nonfinancial services was unchanged in recent weeks. Employment rose slightly
and wages increased moderately, due in part to recent minimum wage increases in some Fifth District jurisdictions.
Price growth remained robust; however, there were several reports that customers were starting to reject further price
increases or insist on reduced prices.

Labor Markets

Manufacturing

Employment increased slightly in the Fifth District over
the most recent reporting period. Contacts continued to
report a lack of qualified workers as a significant issue for
their business. A Maryland construction contact reported
better than expected demand, but projects were slowed
by a shortage of skilled labor. A South Carolina staffing
firm said that demand for engineering and skilled trades
workers has been consistently high and doesn’t show
signs of slowing. Wages picked-up moderately, due in
part from increases in the minimum wages in Maryland,
Virginia, and the District of Columbia. A Virginia retailer
reported that the minimum wage increase resulted in
wage increase for all workers, not just those making the
minimum.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District softened modestly in recent weeks. Overall, manufacturers reported a
decline in new orders. A fabric manufacturer that produces products for retail stores said that they were working
through an inventory glut, and were hoping that as inventories clear, new orders would increase. Manufacturers
also reported more push-back from clients on price
increases. A label printer reported increased pressure
from purchasing teams to reduce pricing this year. With
supply chain pressures easing, purchasing teams were
“raging back and shopping the business.” Finding workers remained an issue. An aluminum producer cited that
growth is limited severely by availability of skilled labor
and administrative workers.

Prices

Ports and Transportation

Prices continued to grow at a strong rate, particularly for
services. According to our recent surveys, manufacturers
reported average price increases around 5.5 percent, but
this was down considerably from the peak set in 2022.
Services sector firms, on the other hand, saw prices
continue to rise at a near-peak rate of about 6.5 percent.
There were some reports by firms in both sectors that
customers were starting to push back on further price
increases. One manufacturer said that they were under
pressure to cut prices, which would compress margins as
input costs were still rising.

Fifth District ports reported a sharp decline in loaded
import volumes this period. Imports of retail goods and
household related items were down. Additionally, due to
the extended Chinese New Year, there was an increase
in blank sailings. Loaded exports were stronger and
driven by auto and machine parts as well as rolling
stock. Empty containers were dwelling slightly longer at
the port. Shipping carriers had excess availability this
period. Spot rates fell to pre-pandemic levels or below
and were significantly under current contract rates. Air

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Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
cargo demand continued to soften with airfreight rates
stabilizing as airlines pulled back on freight capacity.

creased in the last month, particularly in the office sector.
Retail and industrial/flex space leasing remained robust
this period. The industrial market continued to be strong
with higher rental rates and good absorption rates. However, rents were moderating in other commercial real
estate sectors and landlords were increasing their incentives and concessions. Rising interest rates slowed sales
and commercial real estate capital markets activity was
negligeable. Some banks had stopped lending for new
commercial construction projects and/or had tightened
underwriting standards; many equity lenders also had
left the market. Many respondents cited a looming issue
of certain CMBS loans that are coming due in 2023
being unable to qualify for refinancing.

Trucking firms reported a moderate decline in freight
volumes this period. Respondents indicated that there
was excess capacity in the truck load segment but lessthan truckload demand was not down as much. Spot
market rates decreased slightly with carriers experiencing some push back from customers on further rate
increases. Trucking firms stated that in response to
lower freight volumes, they were still adding drivers, but
they had scaled-back recruiting and were being very
selective in hiring. Availability of new tractors and trailers
from manufactures continued to improve and there was
a glut of used trucks on the market due to a few regional
trucking companies going out of business.

Banking and Finance
Loan demand continued to slow modestly across almost
all loan types, with the most weakness seen in the commercial loan portfolio. Consumer loan demand was
mixed, with home equity and used auto loans showing
some increased demand over the last few months. Consumer mortgage demand, especially refinancings, have
slowed, which contacts attributed to rising rates. Deposit
levels declined slightly, on balance, however a few
banks did see an inflow of deposits following the failure
of Silicon Valley Bank. Loan delinquencies continued to
increase, albeit slightly and still not to pre-covid levels.
Financial institutions expected moderate declines in loan
and deposit levels for the remainder of the year.

Retail, Travel, and Tourism
Fifth District retailers reported a slight pull back in sales
and demand in recent weeks. An auto dealer said that
sales were down and customers seemed skittish about
making big ticket purchases. Similarly, an appliance and
electronics store saw a slowdown in demand and customer traffic. A couple of retailers, however, noted that
their typical busy season doesn’t start until April, so they
were expecting business to pick up soon.
Travel and tourism increased moderately in recent
weeks. Hotels in the Fifth District reported increases in
the number of rooms sold and because room rates were
higher than last year, revenue growth was strong. One
hotel in South Carolina said that their business was
highly tied to events in the area and volumes were up in
recent weeks because of sports tournaments. Lastly, a
regional airport saw a rebound in air traffic but to a level
still slightly below 2019 levels; however, they expected
to surpass 2019 levels by this summer.

Nonfinancial Services
Nonfinancial service providers continued to report steady
demand for their services along with stable revenues.
Providers also continued to express concerns over their
ability to attract and retain employees. Common themes
that were noted were the higher wages demanded by
applicants, a lack of qualified employees, and retaining
new hires employed after they arrive on the job. Firms
reported getting push back from clients and customers
over price increases and some were considering looking
for lower cost alternatives or to cut costs elsewhere in
their business to offset these higher prices. ■

Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate respondents noted that so far it
hasn’t been the typical robust spring market, evidenced
by a decline in both sales and pending sales. Days on
market have increased, but still not above the historic
average; housing inventory has decreased year-overyear with substantially less new listings. Sales prices
have remained flat for this period, but new contracts
were starting to come in at less than list price. Many
potential home buyers were priced out and sellers were
having to offer concessions to close deals. Higher mortgage rates have made finding affordable homes even
more of a challenge. Construction costs were down, but
overall, home builders are no longer acquiring new
building lots due to economic uncertainty.

For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.richmondfed.org/research/data_analysis

Overall commercial real estate market activity de-

E-2

Federal Reserve Bank of

Atlanta
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
The Sixth District economy grew at a modest pace from mid-February through March. Labor markets improved, and
wage pressures diminished slightly amid increasing labor availability. Some nonlabor costs such as shipping,
eased, while others, like construction materials, remained volatile. Retail sales softened, but demand for new autos
was robust. Tourism activity remained healthy. Demand for housing improved amidst lower mortgage interest rates
and declining home prices. Demand for commercial real estate remained mixed. Transportation activity was
unchanged, on balance, from the previous report. Manufacturing activity was mixed with consumer confidence cited
as a risk. Loan growth at banks remained strong despite concerns about liquidity. Activity in the energy sector was
mostly healthy. Agriculture conditions remained mixed.

Labor Markets

like food inputs and construction materials saw
continued volatility and this, coupled with elevated
labor costs, kept firms from passing easing cost
pressures on to customers. The Atlanta Fed’s Business
Inflation Expectations survey showed year-over-year
unit cost growth at 3.8 percent, on average, in March,
up significantly from 3.5 percent in February. Firms'
year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.1
percent, on average in March, up significantly from 2.9
percent in February.

Labor market conditions continued to improve.
Contacts noted that many positions were easier to fill,
and most indicated retention had improved. However,
businesses continued to cite challenges including acute
shortages of various positions (for example, in
hospitality, accounting and transportation), confronting
an aging labor force, and facing sustained demand for
flexible work arrangements by employees. Most firms
have been hiring to back-fill open positions while a
small number were hiring to grow business. Several
firms noted efforts to move away from underperforming
lines of business by downsizing through both attrition
and layoffs while staffing up more profitable lines.
Contacts noted turning to automation to fill repetitive,
understaffed roles, and some have begun to leverage
the use of artificial intelligence in lieu of hiring for
certain professional positions.

Consumer Spending and Tourism

Retail sales softened over the reporting period but
remained above pre-pandemic levels. Retailers
continued to report that inflationary pressures have
caused lower-income consumers to be more selective
with discretionary spending. However, automobile
dealers reported strong demand for new vehicles as
inventory levels improved. Contacts were cautiously
optimistic for the remainder of the year in spite of
continued inflationary pressures and rising interest
rates.

Most contacts noted some relief from wage pressures
and expressed certainty that wage growth would
moderate further this year.

Travel and tourism activity was little changed from the
previous report. Demand for leisure travel remained
healthy and was described as normalizing from
unsustainably high year-earlier levels. Business travel
continued to recover. Hotel average daily rates
remained above pre-pandemic levels and travelers'
spending on experiences continued to be robust.

Prices

Contacts reported continued improvement in supply
chain issues and shipping capacity, which has helped
ease transportation cost pressures. Even though
contracts still carried elevated escalation or
contingency clauses, some degradation in pricing
power at the wholesale level was reported. Buyers
were reportedly winning more concessions compared
to the last two years of a take-it-or-lose-it price
environment. However, various other nonlabor costs

Construction and Real Estate

Though still weaker than a year ago, housing demand
throughout most of the District was boosted by lower
mortgage interest rates and continued declines in

F-1

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
home prices. A higher percentage of homes have sold
below asking price and median home prices in many
metro areas declined from peak levels reached in 2022.
This, combined with lower interest rates, has led to a
steady improvement in home ownership affordability and
increased demand for housing. Activity has been
stronger in the entry-level price points compared to
more high-end homes. However, inventory remained
near historic lows in most markets. Cancellations in the
new home market moderated and some homebuilders
have increased speculative home inventory.

recent bank failures and their level of uninsured
deposits held at a single institution; however, banks
have not experienced a large outflow of deposits.
Unrealized losses remain elevated, limiting the ability to
sell securities for liquidity without negatively impacting
capital. Despite concerns about liquidity, banks
indicated loan growth remained solid over the reporting
period.

Energy

Energy contacts noted robust activity in exploration and
production, crude oil refining, power infrastructure
projects, liquefied natural gas, and renewable energy
projects. Strong global demand and federal dollars for
decarbonization from the Inflation Reduction Act were
cited as factors influencing activity strength. Chemical
manufacturers reported softening in the chemicals
space, largely for housing sector inputs. Utility providers
also reported some slowing in industrial segments tied
to housing. Commercial and residential utility segments,
however, remained strong.

Commercial real estate (CRE) conditions were mixed.
The industrial sector remained healthy, while office,
multifamily, and some segments of retail slowed. An
increasing number of contacts reported concerns about
rising costs outpacing rent increases. More employers
requiring staff to return to the office has helped stabilize
some segments of the market; however, a significant
amount of available sublease space is expected to
create headwinds. A rising number of contacts
mentioned concerns about the availability of financing
as some banks reduced funding commitments amid
weaker lending from larger financial and non-bank
institutions. Concerns over declining CRE values
accelerated.

Agriculture

Agricultural conditions were mixed. Domestic supplies
of chicken exceeded demand as the Avian Flu limited
exports. However, foreign demand for poultry improved
as some countries loosened import regulations.
Demand for eggs exceeded supply but softened in
response to elevated prices. Cattle supply remained
low, and beef producers expressed concerns that falling
chicken prices may cause consumers to substitute
chicken for beef. Demand for cotton and soybeans fell
from already low levels. Contacts expect reduced
plantings of cotton this year as discretionary spending
softens. Contacts noted continued supply chain
improvements.■

Transportation

Transportation activity was largely consistent with the
previous report. Ports continued to see a slowing in
container trade, though volumes remained above prepandemic levels. Shipments of autos and heavy
machinery through District ports increased. Railroads
reported further declines in overall freight shipments. Air
cargo contacts noted significant year-over-year volume
declines. Truck capacity remained readily available, and
some trucking contacts noted expectations for an
improvement in volumes later this year.

Manufacturing

Some manufacturers reported significant slowing in
activity, especially firms producing inputs for residential
construction, where declines were attributed to elevated
mortgage rates and persistently high construction costs.
Lead times and supplier delivery times improved, and
supply chains were characterized as normalizing. Auto
manufacturers noted strong demand; however,
consumer confidence was cited as a risk to the outlook.

Banking and Finance

Liquidity pressures persisted for some District financial
institutions. Banking contacts reported that a limited
number of customers expressed concerns about
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.atlantafed.org/economy‐matters/regional‐economics

F-2

Federal Reserve Bank of

Chicago
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Seventh District was little changed overall in late February and March. Contacts generally expected slow growth in the coming months, though many expressed concerns about the potential for a recession in the
coming year. Employment increased moderately; consumer spending, business spending, and construction and real
estate were flat; nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and manufacturing demand decreased modestly.
Prices and wages rose moderately, and financial conditions tightened moderately. Banking contacts reported some
movement in deposits but little change in credit availability following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Agricultural
incomes were expected to be lower in 2023 than in 2022.

Labor Markets

Consumer Spending

Employment increased moderately over the reporting
period and contacts expected slower employment growth
over the next 12 months. Many contacts continued to
have difficulty finding workers, especially those in the
skilled trades. At the same time, however, many said
hiring was easier compared with a few months ago.
Some manufacturers reported that with a slowdown in
orders, they were feeling less urgency to fill open positions and were more willing to wait for the right candidate. One contact in state government saw signs of less
labor hoarding, as businesses were making less of an
effort to keep underutilized or underperforming workers.
Wage and benefit costs rose moderately, with several
contacts indicating that regular annual wage and benefit
increases had recently taken effect.

Consumer spending was unchanged on balance over
the reporting period. Nonauto retail sales were slightly
softer, with contacts noting declines for gasoline and
building materials and lower than expected sales of
furniture and electronics. Light vehicle sales were unchanged overall, and service and parts demand remained strong. Leisure and hospitality spending increased slightly, driven by greater spending in travel
categories such as cruise lines and travel agencies.

Business Spending
Business spending was stable overall in late February
and March. Capital expenditures increased modestly,
with several contacts reporting spending on renovation
or expansion of existing structures. Demand for transportation services decreased some, though activity remained at a high level. Demand for residential, commercial, and industrial energy decreased slightly, with one
contact highlighting declines from manufacturing and
small commercial enterprises. Inventories for most retailers were at comfortable levels. Though auto inventories
continued to move up, according to a survey of dealers
they were still only around half of pre-pandemic levels. In
manufacturing, inventories stayed slightly elevated, and
many contacts indicated that they were no longer experiencing supply chain disruptions. A construction contact

Prices
Prices rose moderately in late February and March, and
contacts expected a similar rate of increase over the
next 12 months. Producer prices rose modestly, with
contacts highlighting higher costs for raw materials
(particularly steel) and energy. Several contacts noted
that growth in shipping costs had slowed noticeably,
particularly for containers and ocean freight. Consumer
prices generally increased due to the continued elevated
level of demand and the passthrough of higher costs.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
noted that materials availability had improved to the point
that certain suppliers were no longer taking orders more
than a few weeks in advance.

Agriculture
With input costs remaining elevated and many product
prices down, contacts expected lower agricultural income for the District in 2023 compared with a strong
2022. Wheat prices were generally lower over the reporting period, during which the agreement for exporting
grain from Ukraine was extended into May. Corn and
soybean prices were also lower despite smaller estimates for the South American harvest. Planting delays
were likely in some places in the District due to excess
precipitation, though contacts noted the extra moisture
could also recharge ground water levels for use later in
the growing season. Although fertilizer costs fell, the cost
of most other inputs remained high for crop farms. Cattle
prices increased as the U.S. herd was squeezed by
drought and a harsh winter. Egg prices moved up, while
dairy and hog prices were down. High feed costs continued to compress most livestock margins. Prices for
agricultural land continued to rise, reportedly at a slower
pace.

Construction and Real Estate
Construction and real estate activity was little changed
on balance over the reporting period. Residential construction decreased slightly, while residential real estate
activity was up modestly across segments. One contact
attributed the pickup in sales to lower mortgage rates.
Home prices and rents moved up modestly. Nonresidential construction activity was little changed overall,
though contacts highlighted renovation of hospitality
space as an area of growth. Elevated construction costs
continued to hold back new projects. Commercial real
estate activity decreased moderately, though some
contacts said deal flow was still at a healthy level. Demand for leased multifamily space increased while demand for office space continued to fall. Prices and rents
were down slightly. Vacancy rates increased slightly, and
the amount of sublease space grew modestly.

Community Conditions

Manufacturing

Community development organizations and public administrators reported little change in overall economic
activity through March. Demand for social services remaining elevated despite reports of overall economic
strength. State government officials again saw healthy
growth in tax revenues and low levels of unemployment
insurance claims. Despite slow growth and funding challenges, small businesses and nonprofits continued to be
focused on employee recruitment and retention and
were not reporting plans for layoffs. High interest rates
and elevated supply costs continued to challenge plans
to expand availability of affordable housing units and
childcare facilities, non-profit developers reported. Family-facing organizations said there were signs of slower
growth in consumer prices; however, the end of Covidera benefits was putting new stress on household budgets. ■

Manufacturing demand decreased modestly in late February and March. Steel orders decreased slightly. Fabricated metals orders were down modestly, with several
contacts citing the automotive sector as a reason for
declines. Auto production fell slightly. Machinery sales
were up slightly, and one contact highlighted stronger
demand from the aerospace sector. Heavy truck orders
moved up slightly and backlogs remained very high.

Banking and Finance
Financial conditions tightened moderately over the reporting period. Bond and stock markets saw little change
in asset values on net, though volatility spiked and asset
values temporarily fell following the collapse of Silicon
Valley Bank (SVB). Banking contacts reported fielding
some inquiries about deposit safety after SVB’s failure
and also saw some deposit transfers. A contact at a
large bank that received new deposits was uncertain
whether the deposits would stick once there was more
clarity about the health of smaller banks. Business loan
volumes decreased slightly, with one contact noting that
clients producing durable goods were most likely to be
struggling. Business loan quality was stable, and contacts did not report changes in lending standards. The
consumer loan market saw a slight decrease in the
volume of loans, led by further declines in refinancing
activity. Consumer lending standards tightened slightly,
while loan quality was stable.

For more information about District economic conditions visit:
chicagofed.org/cfsec

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Federal Reserve Bank of

St. Louis
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
Economic conditions have remained unchanged since our previous report. Although labor markets remain tight, contacts reported further improvement in their ability to hire and retain workers. Firms struggled to pass on higher costs to
customers, which resulted in wage growth compressing profit margins. Consumer spending was mixed, with reports of
weaker demand among low-income consumers but more robust demand among high-income consumers. Construction
and manufacturing contacts reported that supply chains continued to improve. The real estate sector saw home sales
increase and inventory continue to decline, though rental rates remained flat. The banking sector saw loan growth slow
and deposits fall, but expressed confidence in their overall position.

Labor Markets

Prices

Employment has increased slightly since our previous
report. Although labor markets remain tight overall,
reports of easing have increased since our previous
report. While unemployment rates remain low and hiring
workers is still a challenge, more contacts have been
reporting an ability to hire and retain workers to meet
demand than in recent months. A railroad contact in
Louisville reported reaching full capacity in employment
for the first time post-pandemic. A St. Louis staffing
company, although still reporting hiring challenges and
churn in the market, has seen these issues begin to
relax compared with last year. A Memphis contact reported labor shortages and retention problems are no
longer widespread and are primarily affecting the service
industry.

Prices have increased modestly since our previous
report. Overall, contacts project increasing prices, but at
a slower pace compared with the previous few quarters.
Despite increasing input costs, business contacts reported a decreased ability to pass on costs to consumers
due to increased price sensitivity of consumers and the
desire to maintain competitive pricing. Of businesses
that reported the ability to increase prices, the projected
change in prices varied. A contact in the car industry
indicated only slight increases in prices, while a contact
in the hospitality industry estimated a larger 6-10% increase in prices.

Consumer Spending
District general retailers, auto dealers, and hospitality
contacts reported mixed business activity and a mixed
outlook. In Little Rock, some stores saw less and morevolatile foot traffic, whereas others reported that higherincome consumers are starting to spend more again. A
St. Louis auto dealer reported that business activity did
not change over the past month, and they have a positive outlook for spring and summer. This dealer also
noted that sales of luxury cars have not decreased, since
the people who buy luxury cars are typically cash buyers
and they are less affected by interest rates. A restaurant
contact in Memphis reported that business has been

Wages have continued to grow slightly since our previous report. Companies reported slow wage growth due
to difficulties transferring labor costs onto consumers
and slightly improved labor supply. An insurance contact
in Louisville reported rising wages cutting into their profit
margins, and a home building contact in Little Rock
reported margins being down 15-20% due to increased
wages for employees.

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
stable, and they are careful about increasing prices to
avoid driving away customer demand. The hospitality
industry in Louisville is pessimistic about the tourism
industry’s chances of returning activity to pre-pandemic
levels.

Construction demand remains steady despite high interest rates. Contacts reported opportunities to bid on jobs
if they have available capital. One St. Louis construction
contact reported increased delays in project start times
since our previous report. An Arkansas contact reported
that, due to labor shortages, construction firms are winning bids and finding smaller subcontractors to bid on
the jobs they have been awarded.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity has slightly decreased since our
previous report. Firms in Missouri have reported a slight
uptick in new orders, while firms in Arkansas have reported a slight decrease in new orders and a small rise
in production. Raw material prices continue to decrease,
with products from Asia returning to pre-pandemic levels.
Supply chains continue to improve but remain suboptimal relative to before the pandemic. The manufacturing
industry continues to expand in the region: Two companies in Lee County, Mississippi, added over 60 employees, which represents $2 million in each of their payrolls.

Banking and Finance
Banking conditions in the District have remained stable
since our previous report. Loan growth in the commercial, industrial, and consumer lending sectors all declined
slightly—a continuation of the cooldown in loan demand
since the beginning of 2023. Real estate loan growth, on
the other hand, saw an uptick. Total deposits fell. Contacts expect net interest margins to begin contracting if
they have not already, as deposit costs are still increasing. Asset quality remains good, and bankers in the
District are closely monitoring debt that will be renewed
at higher interest rates this year. Memphis banking contacts reported a renewed focus in the industry on liquidity
in light of recent bank failures, while expressing confidence in their diverse and strong deposit base. One
Memphis-area contact reported inflows from local residents who had previously held deposits in distressed
West Coast banks.

Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the nonfinancial services sector has remained
stable since our previous report. While air passenger
traffic has increased, freight traffic has slightly decreased. In Northwest Mississippi, access to rural
healthcare continues to be affected by rising costs and
low Medicare reimbursements, which have caused hospitals to delay investment in new structures and services.
Investment in technical training increased across the
District. A community college in Tennessee has partnered with local businesses to provide customized workcentered training and short-term credentials to address
student concerns about the rising cost of education and
local business concerns about the lack of qualified workers. Similarly, community colleges in the St. Louis area
are investing in advanced manufacturing training programs by procuring high-end equipment, building new
facilities, and developing new curriculums to accommodate more students. Memphis-area nonprofits reported
that volunteer engagement has increased since our
previous report.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
District agriculture conditions have seen little change
since our previous report. The number of acres planted
in the District for corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans increased around 1% compared with last year; outcomes
were similar for all District states. The composition of the
crops has changed; cotton and soybeans were planted
in lesser quantities compared with last year, while corn
and rice increased in acreage. Southern parts of the
District have planted significantly fewer acres of cotton
and replaced it with corn and rice.
Natural resource extraction conditions declined moderately from February to March, with seasonally adjusted
coal production decreasing 9%. March production was
also down moderately compared with a year ago, falling
over 5%. ■

Real Estate and Construction
Home sales in all four major District MSAs have increased since our previous report. The median sale price
of listings in Memphis has increased significantly, and
other major District MSAs have seen small increases in
median sale price. Inventory has dropped in all four
major District MSAs since our previous report. However,
rental rates remain unchanged.
Commercial real estate continues to see low demand for
large office spaces. In Northwest Arkansas, one contact
reported high demand for commercial warehouses,
which has resulted in a vacancy rate of less than 1%.

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Federal Reserve Bank of

Minneapolis
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
The Ninth District economy grew slightly since the previous report. Employment gains were modest; labor demand
remained high, but signs of softness also appeared. Wage pressures rose slightly and remained at high levels. Price
pressures were steady at high levels. Consumer spending was flat, though activity varied in different segments. Commercial construction rose slightly, but residential construction continued to be slow. Commercial real estate was flat, and
residential real estate remained very slow. Manufacturing activity contracted slightly, and agricultural conditions remained strong. Activity among minority- and women-owned businesses was steady. A substantial majority of contacts
reported no effect on their organization from recent banking turmoil.

Labor Markets

Prices

Employment grew modestly since the last report.
Contacts reported a slight drop in job openings, but
overall demand for labor remained healthy. A monthly
business conditions survey showed that overall hiring
sentiment remained positive; staffing contacts also noted
increases in job orders with the coming of spring. Layoffs
appeared to increase, but mass layoff events were still
low. A Minnesota staffing firm said that businesses were
“exfoliating the workers they don't need.” A Wisconsin
workforce contact said that hiring had softened; there
was not widespread downsizing, but more the
“abandonment” of recruiting for unfilled positions.
Several sources noted that turnover also appeared to be
ebbing and could be a factor in lower job postings.
Numerous contacts said labor availability improved
slightly. A Wisconsin staffing contact said the number of
job applicants rose “but the quality is not strong.” Still,
job placements were growing because clients “are
becoming more open to more-questionable candidates.”

Price pressures were steady since the last report, though
levels remained elevated. Price pressures for inputs
were greater on balance than for final goods, according
to contacts. About half of respondents to a District
business conditions poll reported no change to the prices
they charged for their products and services in March
from a month earlier, compared with a third reporting
increases. Nearly two-thirds of hospitality and tourism
contacts reported that inflationary pressures had gotten
somewhat or much worse over the past three months.
Several manufacturing contacts reported more
resistance from customers to price hikes. Construction
contacts reported that although prices of lumber and
certain materials have retreated from highs, prices of
other inputs, such as furnishings, remained elevated.
Retail fuel prices in District states increased moderately
overall since the previous report. Prices received by
farmers in February increased from a year earlier for
corn, soybeans, potatoes, hay, cattle, turkeys, and eggs;
prices decreased from a year earlier for wheat, milk,
hogs, chickens, sugar beets, dry edible beans, lentils,
and canola.

Wage pressures remained high but there were small
signs of easing. Most contacts reported that they still
needed to offer higher wages than previously to fill open
positions. A staffing firm reported that wages for
industrial positions had risen more than 10 percent over
the past year, and additional increases were expected.
But multiple contacts said there was less need for offcycle pay increases, and raises were returning to an
annual frequency.

Worker Experience
Job seekers continued to prioritize higher pay and
greater flexibility as they looked for jobs and remained
positive overall about their prospects. Many showed a
strong willingness to learn new skills and consider a
different line of work to advance their goals. Minnesota

I-1

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
and South Dakota immigrant workers employed in
agriculture, food processing, and manufacturing reported
stable employment conditions. Some wished to find
employment outside their current industry but were
limited by language barriers and job proximity. A food
processing worker in her sixties said she reduced her
working hours because driving in the winter was difficult,
but she did not plan on retiring soon. "We came here to
work, retirement is not for us," she added. Others shared
similar sentiments.

amount of new supply coming online. Office space saw
the opposite trend, with vacancies rising despite no new
supply. Residential real estate remained slow, with
higher mortgage rates heavily impacting sales. Available
data on closed and pending home sales in March
showed moderate-to-large declines across the District. A
lack of inventory kept home prices elevated.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity decreased slightly since the last
report. A regional index of manufacturing conditions
indicated contraction in activity in March from a month
earlier in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
Manufacturing respondents to a District business
conditions survey reported overall unchanged sales in
March from a month earlier, though expectations for April
were higher and many contacts noted strong backlogs.
Inventories increased slightly, according to contacts, and
several noted that supply chain pressures had eased. A
producer of inputs for large engines and industrial
equipment reported that it was expecting a dramatic
reduction in sales and was planning to reduce staff by 20
percent in response. A producer of food and beverage
equipment noted that “customers are hesitant to invest in
costly equipment when interest rates are so high.”

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending rose slightly since the last report,
with varied activity among different segments. Minnesota
retail contacts reported modest sales growth in recent
weeks. However, foot traffic at some South Dakota
retailers has reportedly slowed compared with last year,
said a contact there. The lodging industry in Minnesota
and Montana continued to see healthy demand in March.
However, industry contacts in both states noted some
signs of softening demand. Vehicle sales in Minnesota
and Wisconsin in March were lower compared with last
year; in the western part of the District, sales at a
dealership with multiple locations were slightly higher for
new vehicles, despite inventory shortages, but 12
percent lower for used vehicles. Recreational,
powersport, and marine vehicle sales remained
subdued, with the RV industry “bloated with inventory,”
according to a contact, and higher interest rates
dampening demand. Spring break airline traffic has been
brisk, with monthly passenger levels at some District
airports seeing double-digit growth over last year.

Agriculture, Energy, and Natural Resources
District agricultural conditions were stable at strong
levels entering the planting season. Most contacts
reported that farm incomes continued to increase from a
year earlier, while capital spending was steady.
However, persistent wintry weather, including a severe
snowstorm, delayed preparation for spring planting in
many areas. District oil and gas exploration activity was
unchanged since the previous report.

Construction and Real Estate
Commercial construction rose slightly since the last
report. While new office projects remain slow, other
sectors remained active, especially with the coming of
spring. Industry data showed that recent nonresidential
activity has been on par with last year. Contacts also
reported that multifamily construction has remained
healthy. A small sample of construction contacts
reported that March sales were higher, on average, than
a month earlier, and they had similar expectations for the
coming month. Residential construction, on the other
hand, was still in the doldrums. The number of singlefamily units permitted in March was down more than 40
percent, year-over-year, in the Minneapolis-St. Paul
region; even larger declines were seen in Rochester,
Minn., Bismarck and Fargo, N.D., and Sioux Falls, S.D.

Minority- and Women-Owned Business Enterprises
Minority- and women-owned businesses reported little
change in activity compared to last period. A few were
concerned that their inability to pass on increased input
and labor costs through final prices was beginning to
threaten their existence. A number of contacts were still
unsuccessfully looking for workers; they quoted wage
competition and mismatched skills as the main reasons.
Sentiments around recent banking events were mixed.
While some expected their access to credit to further
narrow, others expected little or no impact. A contact
working with startups expected area entrepreneurs in the
tech sector to be affected but was unsure as to what
extent. ■

Commercial real estate was flat since the last report. In
the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, leasing activity for
industrial property remained strong, and vacancy rates
fell slightly in the first quarter, despite a considerable

For more information about District economic conditions visit:
minneapolisfed.org/region-and-community

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Federal Reserve Bank of

Kansas City
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
Total economic activity across the Tenth District declined slightly in March and April. However, almost every business
contact reported no pull back in planned capital expenditures, hiring plans or planned wage increases in response to
recent financial market volatility. Hiring activity slowed, leaving total District employment mostly unchanged. Worker retention was reportedly much higher, even as wage growth slowed. Consumer spending declined slightly. Households pulled
back most on bigger ticket items like cars or home maintenance and improvements. Prices continued to rise at a moderate pace. Several food manufacturers indicated they do not expect to be able to negotiate the same pace of price increases as they did over the past year in the coming months. Deposit outflows at community and regional banking organizations raised funding challenges for many organizations in recent weeks. However, community development financial
institutions, which typically serve microbusinesses and low-to-moderate income borrowers, reported stable funding conditions despite recent financial volatility. Agricultural lenders also indicated stable liquidity to support lending over the medium term. Generally, lenders expected somewhat tighter lending standards and stricter pricing related to credit risks in
coming months.

Labor Markets

Prices

Manufacturing employment in the Tenth District increased modestly in recent weeks, which contacts tied to
a better ability to recruit for open positions rather than an
increase in overall demand for workers. Restaurant
owners, hotel operators and most service businesses
indicated that employment changed little over the past
month. Although employment in healthcare grew at a
moderate pace over the last month, labor demand at
healthcare establishments slowed moderately in some
parts of the District. Job losses in tech occupations were
concentrated among larger companies operating in the
region. Contacts noted that tech workers were finding
new employment opportunities within a couple of weeks
on average, but often at somewhat lower pay. Expected
employment growth was reportedly much lower than just
a few months ago.

Prices rose moderately across the District. Services
contacts reported selling prices grew only slightly. Yet,
most contacts at services businesses anticipate changing their prices more frequently compared to the previous year, taking opportunities to raise prices incrementally when available. Most businesses said their recent
difficulty with passing cost increases through to customers compressed their profit margins, with most indicating
they expect to increase prices further over the medium
term to rebuild lost profitability. One notable exception
was processed food categories, where contacts do not
expect to be able to negotiate as large, or as many, price
increases with grocers as they did last year.

Consumer Spending
Household spending continued to fall slightly in recent
weeks. Purchases of larger ticket items, such as cars or
spending on home construction projects, declined significantly. Offsetting those declines were robust spending
growth at restaurants and a rebound in leisure travel
activity. Several contacts noted in-store retail spending
growth picked up slightly, but also highlighted that the
distinction between brick-and-mortar and online sales is
less important as most establishments have developed
some sort of online sales platform.

Across industries and geographies, contacts reported
that wage growth is slowing significantly compared to
last year, and that mid-cycle wage increases are much
less likely this year. Despite slowing wage growth, most
businesses indicated that worker retention improved in
recent weeks. Most contacts characterized expected
wage growth over the near term as being above growth
rates expected over the long term.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Community Conditions

Community and Regional Banking

Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)
across the District reported they have generally not
experienced adverse effects resulting from the recent
volatility in the banking sector so far. Most contacts
reported their banking relationships were strong, with
some banks proactively reaching out to quell any concerns about funding commitments. CDFIs expect strong
and increasing loan demand as an alternative and competitive lender to commercial banks, especially as banks
tighten credit. Looking ahead, several CDFIs reported
concerns about the ability of businesses to pay on loans,
especially as more Economic Impact Disaster Loan
payment deferments continue to expire throughout the
year.

After tightening credit standards over the past several
weeks, many contacts reported expectations for further
tightening or more strict pricing related to credit risks.
Loan demand also weakened modestly in the past
month, driven by increased borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. Most notably, contacts reported
weaker demand in commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans, though declines were broadbased. Credit quality remained stable, but contacts continued to expect loan quality to deteriorate over the next
six months. Deposit levels declined moderately as large
depositors withdrew uninsured balances amid the volatility in the regional banking sector and ongoing intensity of
rate competition.

Manufacturing and Other Business Activity

Energy

Manufacturing activity was unchanged from recent
months while activity at services businesses declined
slightly. In response to recent financial volatility, almost
every contact reported they quickly assessed their distribution of bank deposits; however, most business contacts reported no pull back in capex plans, hiring plans or
planned wage increases resulting from recent events.
Expectations of production and sales over the next six
months were little changed, except in technology sectors
where business activity is expected to decline moderately.

Tenth District energy activity declined moderately over
recent months. The number of active gas rigs in the
District decreased as natural gas prices continued to
decline below profitable levels, and prices were expected
to remain in an unprofitable range over coming months.
However, declines in the number of active oil rigs were
modest, as firms expect oil prices to remain in a profitable range in the near term, albeit with profitability falling
in recent months. In line with these expectations, oil
producers reported access to credit over the last month
remained unchanged despite banking disruptions. The
average price needed for a substantial increase in drilling to occur remains above near-term oil and gas price
expectations, constraining future production growth.
Most business contacts reported higher cost pressures
across several key inputs and anticipate persistent cost
pressures in the coming year. Accordingly, capital
spending growth slowed relative to last year and is expected to decline over the next six months.

In contrast, District contacts in the venture capital and
start-up space reported a much more adverse outlook
compared to just a couple of months ago as a direct
result of the closure and challenges among the key
lenders to the sector. Businesses tended to point to
prolonged declines expected for the start-up ecosystem,
rather than declines in certain segments of the startup
community, such as life/bio sciences or tech services.

Agriculture

Real Estate and Construction

Agricultural economic and credit conditions in the Tenth
District were reportedly strong. Elevated commodity
prices continued to support profit opportunities for many
producers. Farm loan repayment rates improved at a
gradual pace in the first quarter and indicators of credit
challenges were limited. Agricultural bankers throughout
the region also reported that their liquidity was adequate
to meet current credit demand and deposit withdrawals.
The impact of higher interest rates on borrower finances
and farmland markets was reportedly a growing concern.
More broadly, drought and elevated production costs
continued to affect many areas of the region. ■

Vacancy rates at commercial properties increased moderately in recent weeks, most notably at office properties.
Yet, contacts indicated use of warehousing and distribution space, which had been the strongest property segment over the last year, declined over the past month.
Several contacts noted subleasing prices declined further. Following the recent financial market volatility, most
contacts noted that lending for commercial real estate
development is almost completely unavailable. From the
lender side, one contact commented “we’d already been
focusing only on premium deals, but now we are being
even stricter about what ‘premium’ means.”

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Federal Reserve Bank of

Dallas
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
The Eleventh District economy continued to expand modestly. Manufacturing output rose slightly following a mild contraction in the previous period. Growth in the service sector continued at a modest pace, and retail sales and energy
activity were flat. Loan demand weakened further, loan volumes fell, and credit conditions tightened. Agricultural conditions remained strained by drought in some areas. Home sales rose. Local nonprofits cited higher demand for assistance. Overall payrolls rose modestly, though hiring slowed sharply in the service sector. Wage growth remained elevated, while price pressures eased notably. Outlooks worsened, and uncertainty surged, partly due to heightened apprehension about the recent banking sector issues and high interest rates, and their spillover effects on the broader economy.

broadly, bringing price growth close to or below its historical average in manufacturing and services. Homebuilders continued to use incentives and discounts to close
sales. Airlines said ticket prices remained elevated, while
energy firms reported declining rental rates for drilling
rigs and said they expect cost inflation to continue slowing. More than a third of firms responding to a March
Dallas Fed survey of nearly 400 Texas business executives cited inflation as a primary outlook concern over the
next six months.

Labor Markets
Employment increased modestly during the reporting
period. The pace of hiring picked up in manufacturing but
slowed in energy and nearly stalled out in services.
Difficulty hiring workers remained a top concern for many
firms, though a few reported some improvement. Airlines
cited capacity constraints due to pilot shortages, and a
workforce development contact said some employers
were taking a closer look at non-traditional talent pipelines to fill positions. In contrast, staffing firms noted
clients were taking longer to make hiring decisions in
part due to the increased economic uncertainty, and
there were scattered reports of layoffs in constructionrelated manufacturing and upstream energy.

Manufacturing
Texas factory output expanded slightly in March after
declining in February. New orders for manufactured
goods continued to contract, however. Weakness in
demand was most pronounced in primary metals and
plastics, though construction-related and computer manufacturers cited declines in new orders as well. In contrast, demand for fabricated metals and machinery rose,
and chemical and refinery utilization rates increased.
Overall, outlooks weakened, with just under two-thirds of
contacts noting waning demand and/or recession as a
key concern. Other headwinds cited were elevated input
costs, labor shortages, and higher labor costs.

Wage pressures remained elevated, though they have
stabilized or moderated in some industries. A food manufacturer noted having issues finding workers despite
offering a starting salary that was more than twice the
minimum wage, while construction contacts noted some
easing in pricing for certain trades.

Prices
While input costs continued to rise, the pace of increases
moderated in energy, construction, and manufacturing.
Freight costs dipped. Some manufacturers noted continued price pressures from supply chain constraints, and a
few firms said higher borrowing costs were slowing down
expansion plans. Selling price pressures decelerated

Retail Sales
Overall retail sales held steady in March. Auto sales rose
strongly, though one contact noted a pullback in demand
due to high interest rates. Clothing and health and per-

K-1

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
sonal care retailers cited higher sales. In contrast, electronics and appliance store sales dipped, which some
contacts attributed to slow activity in the housing market.
Nonstore retailers reported sluggish activity in part due
to more people traveling this spring break.

increases in loan pricing were noted. Banking outlooks
continued to deteriorate, with contacts expecting a contraction in loan demand and business activity and an
increase in nonperforming loans over the next six
months. Increased uncertainty and lack of confidence
resulting from the recent banking issues were cited as
concerns.

Nonfinancial Services
Modest expansion continued in the service sector. Revenue growth was the strongest in leisure and hospitality,
and activity in professional and business services, education, and transportation services rose as well. Small
parcel and air cargo shipments were flat to down, while
sea cargo volumes remained robust and were up notably
compared with year-ago levels. One contact noted that
the recent train derailments had increased supply chain
delays. Airlines saw continuing solid demand for leisure
travel and some contacts expect business travel revenues to reach pre-pandemic levels this spring. Demand
for staffing services was mixed, with firms making whitecollar placements seeing continued strong activity while
those filling blue-collar positions citing weakness. Health
care and real estate rental and leasing firms noted declining revenues on net.

Energy
Energy activity was essentially flat over the past six
weeks. The rig count was unchanged as activity shifted
between and within basins in part due to lower natural
gas prices. Oil and natural gas production increased in
the first quarter, and expectations are for drilling and
completion activity to rise moderately through the year.
Outlooks worsened, however, partly due to uncertainty
about the economy.

Agriculture
Drought conditions persisted in the western part of the
district while soil conditions were quite favorable elsewhere. The La Niña weather pattern has ended, and
rainfall is expected to increase moving into summer and
fall. Cotton acres are expected to be down significantly
this year, with farmers favoring crops with a relatively
higher price and drought tolerance. On the livestock
side, cattle prices increased dramatically over the past
six weeks and were up from this time last year, and
demand was solid.

Construction and Real Estate
Single-family housing demand improved further during
the reporting period partly due to lower mortgage rates.
However, the level of activity remained well below year
ago levels. Most contacts reported a solid spring market,
with sales, particularly in popular locations at or above
plan. Buyer traffic held up, and contract cancellations
dipped. Housing starts remained subdued. Outlooks
improved but uncertainty remained elevated particularly
considering the recent banking challenges. Apartment
leasing picked up slightly. Rents were flat and occupancy continued to dip as supply outpaced demand.

Community Perspectives
Nonprofits saw increased demand for their services, with
one contact citing higher activity compared with prepandemic levels. Utilization of housing assistance or
temporary shelters increased notably, and some nonprofits said that housing assistance was the fastest
growing need among their clients. Contacts cited growing financial difficulties for low- to moderate-income
families in part due to the recent reduction in SNAP
benefits. One nonprofit noted that more middle-class
families were seeking financial help as their wages had
not kept pace with rising living costs. High or rising operating costs remained a challenge for many nonprofits,
and some were concerned that with many companies
downsizing, they would not meet their fundraising
goals.■

Demand for office space was lackluster, and heightened
levels of sublease space remained an impediment to
market recovery. Activity in the industrial market stayed
solid, but vacancy edged up due to the arrival of new
properties. The higher cost of capital, tighter lending
standards, and financial uncertainty has made it challenging to price deals, diminishing investment sales
activity. Some contacts voiced concern regarding the
renewal of commercial real estate loans, particularly
those secured by office properties.

Financial Services
Loan demand continued to decline in March as bankers
reported worsening business activity. Loan volumes fell,
driven largely by a sharp contraction in consumer loans.
Loan performance worsened slightly overall. Credit
standards and terms tightened sharply, and marked

For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.dallasfed.org/research/texas

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Federal Reserve Bank of

San Francisco
The Beige Book ■ April 2023

Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Twelfth District grew slightly during the mid-February through March reporting period. Employment levels were stable, while labor market conditions remained tight overall. Elevated wage and price levels persisted
though grew at a slower pace relative to the last reporting period. Sales of retail goods softened slightly, while activity in
the consumer and business services sectors maintained strength. Demand for manufactured products was steady, while
conditions in the agriculture and resource-related sectors continued to slow slightly. Residential and commercial real
estate markets weakened. Lending activity decreased substantially. Communities across the Twelfth District faced
heightened challenges in their ability to provide food, shelter, and services due to credit constraints and reduced philanthropic giving. Looking ahead, contacts had a weaker overall economic outlook and expressed uncertainty in their business planning amid current market conditions.

Labor Markets

consumer services, legal services, and agriculture. One
contact in California noted that produce prices rose
following supply disruptions due to recent flooding in the
state. Firms largely continued to experience rising input
costs, such as transportation, food, some construction
materials, and insurance, though the pace of these increases moderated. Changes in energy prices were
reportedly mixed, and a few contacts observed some
softening in steel and aluminum prices.

Labor market conditions remained tight overall despite
reported softening in some sectors such as financial
services and technology. Employment levels remained
mainly stable, although hiring challenges continued in
most sectors due to skill mismatch and limited labor
supply. Contacts reported difficulty finding workers
across all skill and experience levels. There were some
signs however of easing, which several contacts attributed to an increase in labor supply from recently laid-off
workers seeking employment. Several contacts noted
improved worker retention in recent months, although job
turnover remained generally elevated. While employers
in leisure and hospitality continued to hire, which alleviated ongoing staff shortages, businesses in the financial
services, technology, and entertainment sectors reduced
head counts in response to waning demand.

Community Conditions
Conditions in the community support and services sector
worsened in recent weeks. Nonprofit organizations reported that heightened uncertainty in the banking sector
limited their access to credit and delayed ongoing affordable housing and community support projects. Nonprofit
organizations noted that recent banking developments
led many corporations to cut back on charitable donations, which further constrained their ability to meet
demand for basic needs, including shelter, rental and
food assistance, and mental health services. Employers
across the District reported increased burnout and mental health strain among workers, particularly low-wage
earners, due to higher living costs.

Wage growth moderated during the reporting period, but
wage levels remained high. Although wage pressures
eased somewhat, workers continued to demand higher
pay, and employers maintained offers of higher wages to
attract and retain workers in the face of consumer price
inflation and high housing costs. Contacts noted that with
stiff competition for labor, firms attracted talent with pay
increases and better benefits.

Retail Trade and Services
Retail goods sales softened slightly, as reduced savings
and rising household debt hampered consumption expenditures. Food spending decreased somewhat as
households continued to trade down to lower cost items.
One contact from Washington noted that sales of organic
produce weakened relative to conventional products.

Prices
Overall price levels rose during the reporting period,
though at a somewhat slower pace. Reports indicated
higher final prices for goods and services in several
sectors, including manufacturing, leisure and hospitality,

L-1

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
However, home improvement and do-it-yourself projects
continued to support strong sales at home centers.

output in the Pacific Northwest remained stable. Sales of
harvested timber cooled further, while investor demand
for timberland remained elevated.

Conditions in the consumer and business services sectors remained strong. Demand for health-care services
continued an upward trend. Demand for air travel was
strong, while that for leisure and hospitality moderated
somewhat in parts of the District, including Southern
California, due to consumers’ concerns about economic
uncertainty. At the same time, the tourism industry in
Hawaii and Nevada remained strong. Record rain and
snowfall across the West Coast had a mixed effect.
While the hospitality sector in Southern California saw a
significant slowdown, Northern California saw higher
demand for outdoor recreation.

Real Estate and Construction
Conditions in the residential real estate sector worsened
over the reporting period. Demand for single-family
homes softened, and homes stayed on the market longer. Selling prices fell below initial asking prices, and the
cancellation rate for purchase agreements reportedly
increased. Multifamily housing demand was stable to
weaker, depending on the region, and asking rents or
the rate of rent increases fell. Uncertainty and high financing costs dampened new construction, but some
reports indicated stronger activity in the lower-cost home
category. Ongoing projects continued to be developed
as planned across the District, but builders highlighted
shortages of electrical equipment as a constraint to
construction activity in the region.

Manufacturing
Activity in the manufacturing sector was steady. Some
reported softness in orders from the construction industry was offset by strength in metal production, engineering, and food manufacturing. Demand for capital equipment and metal recycling products increased in recent
months, while demand for wood products weakened as
rising mortgage rates and bad weather slowed down
residential construction. Production costs remained
above historical averages, and labor tightness persisted.
While supply disruptions continued to improve, contacts
across the District reported delays in getting various
electrical components.

Activity in the commercial real estate market weakened.
Demand for office and health-care space continued to
wane. Office vacancies rose as leases expired and
occupants reduced their need for space due to hybrid
and remote work arrangements. Demand for warehouse
and industrial space remained generally strong, as did
the demand for new data centers. One contact in Oregon
highlighted local government’s ongoing plans for continued development in downtown areas.

Agriculture and Resource-Related Industries

Financial Institutions

Activity in agriculture and resource-related sectors decelerated slightly. Exports of agricultural goods weakened,
and domestic demand for agricultural products was
mixed. While growers in the Pacific Northwest reported
weaker sales overall, producers in California noted
strong, stable demand for fresh produce and other agricultural goods. Persistent rains and flood conditions in
California affected plant pollination, delayed the planting
of crops like tomatoes and cotton, and cast doubt on the
viability of some orchard crops. One contact in Central
California reported that the recent rains made large
portions of grazing lands unsuitable for cattle. Seafood

Lending activity fell significantly in recent weeks amid
higher interest rates and elevated uncertainty in the
banking sector. Lending standards tightened notably,
and several depository institutions opted to reduce loan
volumes, especially for new clients, despite reporting
ample liquidity. Reports indicated that existing and
planned projects across sectors were delayed or cancelled due to higher funding costs, heightened uncertainty, and more limited access to credit. Following recent
volatility in deposit levels at regional and community
banks, outflows have reportedly stabilized since late
March.■

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