The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC May 12, SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1989 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Producer prices . Retail sales . . . Retail inventories . . Crop report. . Budget agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. Tables Recent changes in producer prices Retail sales . . . . . . . . . . Changes in manufacturing and trade inventories . . . Inventories relative to sales . . . . . . . . Budget plans for FY90 Gramm-Rudman-Hollings deficit targets and procedures . . . . . . THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit . . . . . . Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Table Summary of U.S. international transactions . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 2 3 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Producer Prices The producer price index for finished goods rose 0.4 percent in April. Finished energy prices rose 7.2 percent, led by a 13 percent jump in gasoline prices. Prices of finished foods fell 0.6 percent, reflecting declines in prices for eggs, pork, and fresh fruits and vegetables. Excluding food and energy, the finished goods price index was down 0.1 percent. Passenger car prices fell 2.8 percent, as a result of recent sales incentive programs; but prices of finished goods rose or grew slowly in a number of other categories as well, in both the consumer goods and capital equipment categories. Prices of intermediate materials, excluding food and energy, were unchanged in April for the first time in more than two years. Prices of primary nonferrous metals fell nearly 8 percent, and prices of steel mill products were unchanged. However, prices were up sharply for some petroleum-based materials such as industrial chemicals and synthetic fibers. Retail Sales Total retail sales increased 0.4 percent in April, after holding even in March and declining 0.4 percent in February; sales excluding auto dealers and nonconsumer stores increased 0.2 percent in April--about the same pace as in the previous two months. Several categories of nondurable goods 1. In translating the retail sales figures into the PCE estimates, the BEA now includes in its measure of "PCE control" the estimated value of non-gasoline sales at gasoline stations (calculated as the difference (Footnote continues on next page) stores reported large increases in April. Sales at general merchandise outlets moved up 1 percent last month, after holding about even in March. Spending at apparel stores is estimated to have increased 3-1/2 percent in April, about retracing the declines of the previous two months. Sales at gasoline stations posted a large increase in April for the third consecutive month; however, the bulk of recent increases in nominal sales at gasoline stations likely reflects increases in the pump price of gasoline. These large increases were largely offset, however, by sizable declines elsewhere, particularly at furniture stores and in the "other durable" and "other nondurable" goods categories of stores. Retail Inventories Inventory accumulation in retail trade, on a current-cost basis, moderated in March. Stocks, excluding those held by auto dealers, rose at a $7-1/2 billion annual rate--somewhat below the pace over the past year. Inventories held by apparel and furniture stores were little changed in March, but general merchandisers posted another relatively large increase in stocks. With sales for these types of stores flat or down slightly in March, their inventory-sales ratios rose. Of the three groupings, only the ratio for apparel has moved close to its recent high in early 1988. Crop Report The initial USDA crop production estimates for 1989 suggest that production of winter wheat--the only major crop currently near harvest--is (Footnote continued from previous page) between retail sales at gasoline stations--taken from the Monthly Retail Trade report--and the value of gasoline sales--estimated from separate data provided by the Department of Energy). As a result, the implications of the Retail Trade report for the calculation of nominal PCE now can be summarized by the growth of total retail sales less sales at building material and supply stores and automotive dealerships. likely to fall about 8 percent despite a 12 percent increase in acreage planted. The decline reflects the very dry weather in parts of Kansas. The agency's assessment of the current condition of the winter wheat crop was based on actual field samples. Estimates for other crops were based on a sample of planned acreage conducted in March and trend yields. The drop in the production of winter wheat, taken alone, would reduce the BEA estimate of farm output in 1989 by roughly $1/2 billion. However, the report also projected sharp increases in the output of other crops, including wheat planted in the spring, which usually accounts for roughly one-fifth of total wheat production. On balance, these current estimates are roughly in line with the estimate of crop production built into the staff forecast: Higher production of other crops roughly offsets the decline in winter wheat production. Budget Agreement House and Senate conferees on May 11 adopted a compromise congressional budget resolution, largely ratifying the earlier bipartisan budget agreement (shown in the table, which corrects an omission from the version on page II-A-2 of the Greenbook.) The budget resolution contains a deficit of $99.7 billion, slightly higher than in the agreement, owing to smaller savings in Medicare costs. RECENT CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES (Percentage change; based on seasonally adjusted data) Relative Importance Dec. 1988 1987 1988 1988 Q4 Ql -Annual rate- 1989 Mar. Apr. -Monthly rate- Finished goods Consumer foods Consumer energy Other consumer goods Capital equipment 100.0 25.8 8.8 39.6 25.8 2.2 -. 2 11.2 2.7 1.3 4.0 5.7 -3.6 4.8 3.6 3.0 2.1 1.4 4.4 1.7 10.2 13.5 39.2 6.1 4.6 .4 .8 .9 .4 .2 .4 -. 6 7.2 Intermediate materials 2 Excluding energy 94.8 83.4 5.5 5.2 5.4 7.2 4.5 6.7 9.1 6.2 .6 .4 .4 .0 Crude food materials Crude energy Other crude materials 43.8 36.9 19.3 1.8 10.7 22.6 14.2 -9.5 7.5 16.5 45.9 10.9 3.0 1.7 2.0 -2.8 5.2 -1.1 -7.9 12.3 12.5 -. 1 -. 1 1. Changes are from final month of preceding period to final month of period indicated. 2. Excludes materials for food manufacturing and animal feeds. RETAIL SALES (Seasonally adjusted percentage change 1989 1988 Apr. Feb. Mar. .5 -.4 -.6 .0 .1 .4 1.41 1.7 .2 .3 .2 -.8 2.6 4.4 .3 -.8 -1.2 .7 -.9 2.9 .7 -.8 -2.5 Apparel 3.9 2.7 -.4 -2.9 -.5 3.6 Food 2.3 .9 2.5 1.0 .0 .7 General merchandise 1.4 3.4 1.0 -1.4 .1 1.0 Gasoline stations 1.2 -.3 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.2 Other nondurables 3.2 -.5 -1.2 2.3 2.5 -1.0 Total sales Previous estimate PCE control 2 Furniture and appliances Other durable goods 03 04 1.3 2.2 1.9 01 1. Based on incomplete sample counts approximately one month ago. 2. Total less auto dealers and nonconsumer stores. -5ORIES CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1989 1989 1988 Feb. Jan. Q3 Q4 Q1 76.4 53.2 23.3 19.2 33.9 23.2 10.7 38.7 41.3 25.5 5.4 7.8 -2.6 10.4 47.7 42.0 27.0 5.6 15.1 5.7 9.5 73.0 64.6 39.5 17.4 16.1 8.4 7.7 39.0 32.9 19.2 .6 19.2 6.1 13.1 25.5 16.& 5.7 8.1 11.7 8.7 3.0 26.3 18.8 11.2 2.2 12.9 7.5 5.5 -------- 43.0 26.4 19.2 6.5 17.2 16.6 .6 3.7 -.6 -5.6 -2.3 11.5 4.3 .7.2 Mar. Current-cost basis: Total Total ex. auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Ex. auto 31.1 28.6 22.3 -1.3 10.1 2.5 7.6 Constant-dollar basis: Total Total ex. auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Ex. auto INVENTORIES RELATIVE TO SALES' (Months supply; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1988 Q3 Q4 1989 Ql Jan. 1989 Feb. Mar. 1.51 1.48 1.58 1.28 1.61 2.00 1.51 2 Range in preceding 12 months: Low High Current-cost basis: Total Total ex. auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Ex. auto 1.48 1.46 1.53 1.28 1.54 1.66 1.48 1.52 1.50 1.62 1.32 1.62 2.01 1.51 1.52 1.49 1.58 1.31 1.61 1.98 1.51 1.50 1.48 1.57 1.30 1.59 1.88 1.51 1.50 1.47 1.57 1.28 1.61 1.98 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.54 1.28 1.59 1.93 1.49 1.50 1.47 1.57 1.29 1.61 1.98 1.50 1.50 1.48 1.55 1.30 1.55 1.70 1.50 1.52 1.51 1.62 1.33 1.62 2.03 1.53 1.52 1.50 1.59 1.33 1.61 1.93 1.52 1.52 1.49 1.58 1.32 1.61 1.94 1.52 -------- 1.51 1.48 1.57 1.31 1.62 2.03 1.51 1.53 1.49 1.59 1.31 1.64 2.08 1.52 Constant-dollar basis: Total Total ex. auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Ex. auto 1. Ratio of end-of period inventories to average monthly sales for the period. 2. Highs and lows are specific to each series and are not necessarily coincidental. Range is for the 12-month period preceding the latest month for which data are available. BUDGET PLANS FOR FY90 (Billions of dollars) CBO estimates Change from Bipartisan baseline agreement Bush plan (Feb. 9) Bipartisan agreement (OMB est.) Receipts 1065.6 1065.7 1074.4 +5.8 Outlays, totall Defense International Interest All other 1156.7 300.3 17.2 173.3 665.9 1168.7 299.2 16.72 173.2 679.6 1193.8 299.2 16.72 181.0 696.9 -22.2 -4.2 .0 -1.1 -16.9 Deficit, before adj. -91.1 -103.0 -119.4 +28.0 less: estimating 3 adjustments Deficit n.a. -91.4 3.5 -99.4 19.9 -99.4 n.a. n.a. Memo: Deficit, ex. asset sales -94.8 -105.1 105.1 n.a. n.a.--not applicable. 1. With asset sales. 2. Includes estimated effects of loan repayments; discretionary component of spending specified in agreement is $17.0 billion. 3. As shown in the document releasing the agreement, the accepted deficit is the 0MB estimate lowered by $3.5 billion to incorporate slower defense spend-out rates; the net difference between this estimate and one using CBO's economic and technical assumptions is shown to be $19.9 billion. GRAMM-RUDMAN-HOLLINGS DEFICIT TARGETS AND PROCEDURES A. Fiscal Year Targets 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 ------------------ Billions of dollars ----------------n.a. Original target1 172 144 108 72 36 0 Amended law 2 n.a. n.a. 144 136 100 64 28 Actual deficit 212 221 150 155 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 n.a. B. FY1990 Budget Procedures * July 15: Office of Management and Budget issues its Mid-session Review of the FY1990 Budget, with new outlay and revenue estimates for FY1989 and the FY90-FY94 period. The updated economic and technical assumptions in this report will be used for subsequent OMB Gramm-Rudman reports. * August 20: Congressional Budget Office issues an "advisory" report with updated budget estimates. The report is designed to provide a benchmark with which Congress and others may assess the forthcoming OMB compliance report. * August 25: OMB issues an initial compliance report stating whether or not the FY1990 deficit will exceed $110 billion (the $100 billion target plus a $10 billion margin for error). The budget estimate uses the economic and technical assumptions from the Mid-session Review, legislation enacted by August 15, and other special G-R-H rules. If it appears that the deficit limit is exceeded, then an initial sequestration order is also issued. The order specifies the across-theboard cuts in authority needed to reduce the deficit to the $100 billion target. Congress has until October 10 to pass legislation that would reduce the deficit without a sequestration. * October 10: CBO issues a revised advisory report. * October 15: OMB issues a revised G-R-H compliance report taking account of legislation enacted through October 15. The economic and technical assumptions may not be changed. The final order canceling budgetary resources is issued, if the deficit exceeds the $110 billion trigger. 1. The law allowed a $10 billion "margin for error" in every year except 1991. 2. The law allows a $10 billion "margin for error" in every year except 1993. THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Monetary Aggregates Incoming information showing unexpectedly large declines in the monetary aggregates late in April have led to sizable downward revisions to estimates of money growth for the month. These downward revisions were widespread across the liquid components of the aggregates and appeared related to higher-than-anticipated personal tax payments. Current estimates put the April growth rates of M2 and M3 at 1/2 percent and 2-3/4 percent, respectively, with M1 declining at a 5-1/4 percent rate. MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted) 19881 1988 Q4 1989 Q1 1989 Feb 1989 Mar 1989 Apr p Growth Q4 88Apr 89p I ------------ Percent change at annual 1. 2. 3. Ml M2 M3 4.3 5.2 6.2 --------- 2.3 3.6 4.9 -0.4 1.9 3.8 1.7 1.6 2.9 Percent change at annual rates---------------------1.7 3.8 6.8 -5.2 0.6 2.8 rates------------ -1.4 1.9 4.0 Levels bil. $ Apr 89p Selected components 4. MI-A 5. 6. Currency Demand deposits 7. Other checkable deposits 8. M2 minus M12 i. Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares, NSA SCommercial banks Savings deposits, SA, plus MMOAs, NSA3 Small time deposits SThrift institutions Savings deposits, SA, plus MMOAs, NSA 3 Small time deposits . M3 minus M24 Large time deposits At commercial banks, net 5 At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares, NSA Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA 1.7 8.1 -1.2 7.7 6.6 -1.8 3.3 -0.2 3.6 1.7 -6.2 504.6 7.0 -5.5 5.1 3.4 7.3 -2.1 1.7 -12.2 215.9 281.4 -0.7 -1.7 2.7 1.6 -7.7 -3.0 278.4 2.6 2298.2 -5.9 -9.2 15.7 -38.2 -22.8 -34.0 75.4 7.4 6.9 1.4 14.7 4.6 -4.3 11.7 9.5 6.8 -1.7 18.0 0.3 -8.6 6.6 21.2 5.4 -8.4 28.8 4.5 -14.0 26.6 -5.1 -20.6 5.5 44.1 8.3 -9.2 28.6 -3.9 -15.3 3.3 17.3 7.2 -15.9 33.1 -2.9 -32.5 15.9 260.2 1006.7 521.7 485.0 959.1 362.3 596.8 10.2 9.5 7.4 17.4 10.3 880.2 11.0 11.3 13.0 8.0 12.6 18.0 1.2 15.9 24.3 -2.1 15.4 22.5 0.0 19.1 22.1 12.5 567.6 392.4 175.2 10.9 8.4 4.8 10.6 10.1 -3.9 12.2 8.8 -0.8 15.0 10.5 22.4 -3.1 -14.0 4.3 10.8 4.0 29.3 -10.8 -26.8 24.0 64.4 1.4 -4.5 -42.7 87.7 132.0 100.4 ----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars---MEMORANDA:' 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds 27. Net due to related foreign institutions, SA 7 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial 8 banks 7.7 6.3 1.4 4.7 3.2 1.5 5.3 5.8 -0.5 9.3 5.4 3.9 -0.4 2.0 -0.5 2.0 0.5 -1.0 2.7 1.2 -2.5 3.9 0.0 0.5 -1.5 0.0 0.0 4.9 3.3 1.6 1.4 6.1 -4.7 661.0 452.7 208.3 -5.2 0.5 2.9 205.4 0.6 20.9 Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding MMOAs grew during March and April at rates of -10.7 percent and -19.1 percent, respectively. At thrift institutions, savings deposits excluding MMOAs grew during March and April at rates of -10.8 percent and -25.8 percent, respectively. 4. The non-M2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 5. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. 6. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. I. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. SConsists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. p - preliminary 1. 2. 3. -10COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data) 1987:Q4 to 1988:Q4 Levels 187:4 1 to 11988:Q4 988 Q1 Q4 1989 Feb. Mar. Aprilp bil.$ Aprilp -------------- --------- Commercial Bank Credit --------------------1. Total loans and securities at banks Securities 3. U.S. government securities 4. Other securities 7.3 6.1 7.8 14.4 6.4 2.8 2460.6 4.7 5.0 2.0 4.6 13.5 -1.5 557.4 10.4 8.7 5.3 22.8 5.8 372.1 3.2 -4.5 -16.0 185.3 7.4 -10.6 .2 5.1 8.1 6.4 9.5 17.3 4.4 4.0 1903.2 Business loans 6.3 4.0 9.9 23.8 -3.9 4.1 616.6 Security loans -6.2 1 3.1 52.8 227.0 -30.0 -103.5 39.2 8. Real estate loans 13.4 1 1.0 12.4 12.7 12.6 16.3 694.7 9. Consumer loans 8.6 8.3 5.2 3.0 6.7 7.3 362.1 0. Other loans 5.9 -2.5 -.6 5.6 -21.6 5. 6. Total loans .2 ------11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances 12. Loans at foreign branches 2 1 Sum of lines 11 & 12 1 Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 6.4 30.3 7.1 190.6 ho rt- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit ---------- 4.1 10.3 24.5 -3.3 11.4 51.9 28.7 168.2 -9.8 24.2 11.7 24.5 2.3 3.8 633.3 4.4 4.3 614.2 15.6 50.0 37.5 19.9 31.6 45.6 117.5 8.2 10.3 15.5 23.8 6.8 10.1 755.9 -6.8 11.0 16.7 28.3 6.9 n.a. 34.95 7.4 10.3 15.5 24.0 6.8 n.a. 784.55 18. Finance company loans to business 3 12.3 12.1 8.0 4.1 17.9 n.a. 238.85 19. Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of lines 17 & 18) 10.8 13.7 19.3 n.a. 1023.35 15. Sum of lines 13 & 14 16. Bankers acceptances: 17. related ' Line 15 plus bankers acceptances: U.S. trade related U.S. trade 8.5 9.3 1. Average of Wednesdays. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 5. March data. p--preliminary. n.a.--not available -11- SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKETT QUOTATIONS 1/ (percent) 1988 1987 2/ Feb Oct 16 lows Change from: 1989 UMC ar 28 May 11 Feb 88 FUC lows Mar 28 Short-term rates Federal funds 3/ 7.59 6.38 9.85 9.84 3.46 -0.01 Treasury bills 4/ nth 6.93 5.59 9.07 8.42 2.83 .65 7.74 6.10 8.99 8.37 2.27 -0.62 th7.58 1-year Coamrial paper 1-onth4 3-ianth 5.77 9.12 8.44 2.67 .68 8.65 6.41 6.45 10.00 10.08 9.68 9.62 3.27 3.17 -. 32 -0.46 ntiable CD's 4/ .92 th.90 9.12 6.44 6.49 6.55 10.00 10.21 10.60 9.73 9.77 9.83 3.2 3. 3.28 -0.7 -. -0.77 8.00 9.06 6.44 6.50 10.06 10.31 9.81 9.88 3.37 3.38 -0.25 -0.43 9.25 8.50 11.50 11.50 3.00 0.00 U.S. MTeasury (constant maturity) 7.28 9.52 3-yer 8.11 10-year 10.23 8.32 10.24 30-year 9.80 9.41 9.20 9.11 9.10 9.07 1.83 0.99 0.75 -0.69 -0.31 -0.13 L EBrodollar deposits 5/ 1-eonth 3-ronth Bari prime rate Interediate- and lon-term rates Mmicipal reverue 6/ (Bond Biyer index) 9.59 7.76 7.95 7.64 -0.12 -0.31 Corporate-A utility Reently offered 11.50 9.63 10.40 10.36 0.73 -0.04 1158 8.45 9.84 7.59 11.22 9.30 1o. 9.36 1.13 1.77 -0.25 0.06 Howne nrtage rates 7/ Fixed-rate AlM, 1-year Record hins Percent change frm: 1989 1987 Lows FC Mar 28 May 11 Record FaC Mar 28 his Stock prices Dow-Jones Instrial 2722.42 NYSE Ccposite AECcosite ) NASDAQ( 187.99 01 .26 1738.74 2275.5 2382.88 -12. 71 125.91 163.88 .62 231.90 325.45 291.88 402.60 430.63 -8 -5.31 -5.41 4.72 4 6.20 6.96 4/ Secondary mricet. 1/ One-day quotes except as noted. 5/ Bid rates for Eblrodllar 2/ Last bsiness day prior to stock market decline on Monday deposits at 11 a.m. London time. Oct. 19, 1987. 6/ Based on one-day Thrsday quotes 3/ Average for tw-week reserve maintenance period closest to and futures-marcet index changes. date sown except Feb. low which is the average to the statement week ended Feb. 10, 1988. Last observation is average to date 7/ Quotes for week ending Friday closest to date shown. for maintenance period ending May 17, 1989. -12SUMMARY OF U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS (Billions of dollars) Private Capital Banks 1. Change in net foreign positions of banking offices in the U.S. (+ - inflow) Securities 2. Private securities transactions, net a) foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. corporate bonds b) foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. corporate stocks c) 1988 1989 1987 1988 Year Year 01 q2 03 47.5 23.0 -1.8 16.5 -1.1 9.4 -4.8 -15.7 5.1 5.9 36.4 15.3 -22 10.9 5.7 0.9 5.8 0.6 3.2 2.0 26.4 26.9 2.6 8.9 6.4 9.0 8.7 1.5 4.6 2.6 16.8 0.4 * 1.1 1.3 2.0 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.1 -6.9 -12.0 -4.9 1.0 -2.0 6.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -7.3 20.1 6.0 5.6 3.5 5 4 8.9 L22 i 1 9i 47.7 40.1 25.0 6.4 20 10.8 7.3 2_o 2.3 3.0 38.8 15.5 17.7 -0.8 -6.8 5.3 0.3 -1.8 0.3 1.7 -8.9 -3.4 -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 0.7 6.7 0.4 3.8 2.5 17.8 28.0 8.8 8.9 5.6 4.8 0.3 3.4 -1.8 -1.3 43.2 41.7 27.7 5.9 -3.8 11.9 4.6 -3.2 4.0 4.5 -1.6 -2.8 0.6 1.8 -1.1 2.7 5.2 -1.7 -0.8 9.1 -3.6 j5 -7.4 2.3 -4.0 -1.9 -0.5 -1.7 1989 04 Jan. 01 Feb. Mar. U.S. net purchases (-) of foreign securities 3. Foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. Treasury obligations Official Capital 4. Changes in foreign official reserves assets in U.S. (+ = increase) a) By area G-10 countries (incl. Switz.) OPEC All other countries b) By type U.S. Treasury securities 2 Other 5. Changes in U.S. official reserve assets (+ - decrease) Other transactions (Quarterly data) 6. 4 U.S. direct investment (-) abroad 7. Foreign direct investment (+) in U S. 8. Other capital flows (+ - inflow) 9. U.S. current account balance . Statistical discrpancy 10. Statistical discrepancy -44.5 42.0 -20.4 -6.5 -5.2 n.a. 42.2 7.3 13.1 8.4 n.a. 3.3 -6.6 7.0 n.a. 4.6 2.1 -154.0 -135.3 18.5 16.5 -37.0 -160.3 -35.2 4.4 0.5 -33.8 -32.6 -12.6 23.7 -30.2 29.2 3.8 n.a. n.a. MEMO: U.S. merchandise trade balance -- part of line 9 (Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted) -126.5 32.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1. These data have not been adjusted to exclude commissions on securities transactions and, therefore, do not match exactly the data on U.S. international transactions as published by the Department of Commerce. Line 2a includes all U.S. bonds other than Treasury obligations. 2. Includes deposits in banks, commercial paper, acceptances, borrowing under repurchase agreements, and other securities. _ Includes U.S. government assets other than official reserves, transactions by nonbanking concerns, and other banking and In addition, it includes amounts resulting from adjustments to the data made by _ Department of Commerce and revisions to the data in lines 1 through 5 since publication of the quarterly data in the Survey of Current Business. Icial transactions not shown elsewhere. 4. Includes seasonal adjustment for quarterly data. *--Less than $50 million. NOTE: Details may not add to total because of rounding.
@FedFRASER