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Accessible Material March 2009 Bluebook and Greenbook Tables and Charts Table of Contents Document Section Accessible Material Bluebook Recent Developments FOMC20090318bluebook20090313_1.htm Monetary Policy Strategies FOMC20090318bluebook20090313_2.htm Bank Credit, Debt, and Money Forecasts FOMC20090318bluebook20090313_3.htm Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate FOMC20090318bluebook20090313_4.htm Greenbook Part 1 Domestic Developments FOMC20090318gbpt120090312_1.htm International Developments FOMC20090318gbpt120090312_2.htm Greenbook Part 2 Domestic Nonfinancial Developments FOMC20090318gbpt220090312_1.htm Domestic Financial Developments FOMC20090318gbpt220090312_2.htm International Developments FOMC20090318gbpt220090312_3.htm Greenbook Supplement Supplemental Notes Last update: April 1, 2015 FOMC20090318gbsup20090313_1.htm Accessible Material March 2009 Bluebook Tables and Charts† Recent Developments Chart 1 Financial Institutions Figure: Bank ETF Line chart, January 2007 to March 12, 2009. January 3, 2007=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 100 and generally decreases to end at about 20. It is at about 23 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. There are 24 banks included. Source. Bloomberg, Keefe Bruyette & Woods. Figure: Senior CDS spreads for bank holding companies Line chart, by basis points, 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 200 by March 2008 and generally decreases to about 60 by April. It then generally increases to about 290 by September, and generally decreases to about 125 by October. It then generally increases to about 375 by February 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 300 by March 11. It is at about 250 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Median spreads for 6 bank holding companies. Source. Markit. Figure: Preferred equity Line chart, August 2008 to March 12, 2009. August 15, 2008=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are four series, "Citigroup", "JPMorgan Chase", "Bank of America", and "Wells Fargo". They track closely together in the beginning, starting at about 100. Citigroup generally decreases to about 60 in mid-September 2008, then fluctuates and generally decreases to about 35 by mid-November. It then generally increases to about 82 by January 2009, and generally decreases to about 20 by February 2009. It then increases to end at about 51. It is at about 50 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. JPMorgan Chase fluctuates but remains about constant until the end of January 2009, and generally decreases to about 60 by March. It generally increases to end at about 75. It is at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Bank of America fluctuates but remains about constant until the middle of January 2009 and then generally decreases to end at about 40. It is at about 60 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Wells Fargo generally decreases to about 50 by mid-September 2008, and generally increases to about 75 during September. It then generally decreases to about 40 by the end of September and fluctuates but generally increases to about 115 by mid-January 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 75. It is at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source. Bloomberg. Figure: Insurance ETF Line chart, January 2007 to March 12, 2009. January 3, 2007=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 100 and generally decreases to end at about 30. It is at about 40 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. There are 24 insurance companies included. Source. Bloomberg, Keefe Bruyette & Woods. Figure: Selected student lender equity prices Line chart, 2007 to March 12, 2009. January 3, 2007=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Sallie Mae Corp.", "Nelnet Inc.", and "Student Loan Corp." They begin at about 100 and generally decrease to about 88 by April 2007. Sallie Mae Corp generally increases to about 120 by July, and generally decreases to end at about 5. Nelnet Inc. generally increases to about 105 by April 2007, and then generally decreases to about 36 by April 2008. It then generally increases to about 55 by January 2009, and then generally decreases to end at about 30. Student Loan Corp. generally increases to about 105 by July 2007, and then generally decreases to about 45 by January 2008. It fluctuates but remains about constant until September 2008, and then generally decreases to end at about 18. Sallie Mae Corp. and Student Loan Corp. are at about 25 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Nelnet is at about 50 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source. Bloomberg. Figure: CDS spread for GE Capital Line chart, by basis points, 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 1, and generally increases to about 620 by October 2008. It then generally decreases to about 310 by January 2009, and generally increases to about 1190 by February 2009. It then decreases to end at about 780. It is at about 420 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source. Markit. Chart 2 Market Functioning Figure: Spreads of Libor over OIS Line chart, by basis points, 2007 to March 12, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "1month", "3-month", and "6-month". They track closely together to start. They begin at about 1, remaining about constant until August 2007, and then generally increase to about 99 by September 2007. They generally decrease to about 48 by November, and generally increase to about 350 by October 2008. 1-month generally decreases to about 98 by December, and generally increases to about 152. It then generally decreases to end at about 30. 3-month generally decreases to end at about 100. 6-month generally decreases to an end at about 155. 1-month is at about 5 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 3-month is at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 6-month is at about 140 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Libor quotes are taken at 6:00 a.m., and OIS quotes are observed at the close of business of the previous trading day. Source. Bloomberg. Figure: Spreads on 30-day commercial paper Line chart, by basis points, July 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "ABCP" and "A2/P2". They track closely together until September 2008. They begin at about 2, and fluctuate but generally increase to about 100 by September 2008. ABCP generally increases to about 398 by October, and generally decreases to an end at about 50. A2/P2 generally increases to about 610 by January, and generally decreases to end at about 100. ABCP is at about 40 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. A2/P2 is at about 210 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. The ABCP spread is the AA ABCP rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. Source. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. Figure: On-the-run treasury market volume and turnover Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are monthly averages. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Trading volume" and "Turnover". These two series use two different scales. Trading volume begins at about 90, and generally increases to about 240 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 120 by mid-2007 and generally increases to about 290 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 60 by March 2009. It is at about 98 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Turnover begins at about 1.25, and generally increases to about 4.5 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 2.20 by mid-2007, and generally increases to about 5.40 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to an end at about 1 by February 2009. It is at about 1.05 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Turnover is divided by total outstanding at the end of the month. Source. BrokerTec Interdealer Market Data and Bloomberg. Figure: Treasury on-the-run premium Line chart showing the 10-year note, 2001 to March 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are monthly averages. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 30 by early 2002. It then generally decreases to about 5 by late 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 60. It is at about 61 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Computed as the spread of the yield read from an estimated off-the-run yield curve over the on-the-run Treasury yield. March observation is the month-to-date average. Source. Board staff estimates. Figure: Pricing in the secondary market for leveraged loans Line chart, 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Average bid price", which is by percent of par value, and "Average bid-asked spread", which is in basis points. These two series use two different scales. Average bid price begins at about 97 and generally decreases to about 86 by February 2008. It then remains about constant until June, and then generally decreases to an end at about 62. It is at about 63 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Average bid-asked spread begins at about 51 and generally increases to about 225 by February 2008. It then generally decreases to about 160 by July, and generally increases to about 408 by January. It then generally decreases to an end at about 350. It is at about 390 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source. LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Pricing Figure: CMBX indexes Line chart, by basis points, October 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "AAA Senior" and "AAA Junior". The AAA Junior series is marked with "first loss among AAA-rated tranches". AAA Senior begins at about 1 and generally increases to about 800 by November 2008. It then generally decreases to about 500 by the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. It then generally increases to an end at about 750. AAA Junior begins at about 100 and generally increases to 2000 by November 2008. It then generally decreases to about 1500 by the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. It then generally increases to an end at about 2100. Note. Series 4: Covers CMBS issued in late 2007. Source. JP Morgan. [Box:] Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Developments over the Intermeeting Period Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Billions of dollars Current (3/11/2009) Change since last FOMC Total assets -62 Maximum level 1,901 2,256 Date of maximum level 12/17/2008 U.S. Treasury securities -1 475 791 8/14/2007 Agency debt and mortgage-backed securities* 79 113 113 3/11/2009 Term auction credit (TAF) 78 493 493 3/11/2009 Primary credit -3 65 114 10/28/2008 -153 312 586 12/4/2008 Primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit (PDCF) -13 20 156 9/29/2008 Net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC (CPFF) -24 241 351 1/23/2009 -9 79 182 10/1/2008 -17 102 276 10/8/2008 12/4/2008 Central bank liquidity swaps Other facilities All other Total liabilities -63 1,857 2,213 -131 632 913 1/2/2009 -14 34 137 10/23/2008 U.S. Treasury, supplemental financing account 25 200 559 10/22/2008 Currency in circulation 14 899 899 3/11/2009 Other deposits 46 47 47 3/11/2008 All other -3 44 110 12/10/2008 Total capital 1 44 45 12/17/2008 Deposits of depository institutions U.S. Treasury, general account Memo: Securities lending Overnight facility Term facility Option contracts outstanding -19 113 260 9/29/2008 -3 5 31 10/23/2008 -16 108 236 10/1/2008 35 35 50 12/21/2008 * Includes only mortgage-backed security purchases that have already settled. Mortgage-backed security purchases totaling $155 billion are expected to settle on March 12, 2009. Return to table Chart 3 Interest Rate Developments Figure: Expected federal funds rates Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2011. There are two series, "March 12, 2009" and "January 27, 2009". March 12, 2009 begins at about 0.25 and increases to end at about 1.70. January 27, 2009 begins at about 0.25 and increases to end at about 1.50. Note. Estimates from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments. Source. Chicago Mercantile Exchange and CBOT. Figure: Implied distribution of federal funds rate six months ahead Bar chart, by percent, 0.00 to 2.50. There are two series, "Recent: 3/12/2009" and "Last FOMC: 1/27/2009". Recent: 3/12/2009 begins at about 10, increases to about 50 at 0.25. It then generally decreases to about 10 at 0.75, and decreases to 0 at 1.00. It remains at about 0 until the end. Last FOMC: 1/27/2009 begins at about 15, and generally increases to about 65 by 0.25. It then generally decreases to 0 at 1.25 and remains at about 0 until the end. Note. Derived from options on Eurodollar futures contracts, with term premium and other adjustments to estimate expectations for the federal funds rate. Source. CBOT. Figure: Distribution of expected quarter of first rate increase from the Desk's Dealer Survey Bar chart, by percent, 2010 to 2012. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Recent: 14 respondents" and "Last FOMC: 15 respondents". Recent: 14 respondents is at about 8 for most of the survey except for Q2 2010 when the value is at about 30, Q3 2010 when the value is 0, Q1 2011 when the value is at about 30, and Q4 2011 when the value is 0. Last FOMC: 15 respondents begins at about 28 and generally decreases to about 0 by Q3 2011. It remains at about 0 until the end. Source. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Figure: Nominal Treasury yields Line chart, by percent, 2006 to March 12, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "10-year" and "2-year". They begin at about 4.5 and both series generally increase together until mid-2007, when they reach about 5. From there, the 10-year generally decreases to about 3.5 by the beginning of 2008, and generally increases to about 4.5 by the end of 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.75 by the beginning of 2009, and generally increases to end at about 3.5. It is at about 3.5 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 2-year generally decreases to about 1.5 by the beginning of 2008, and generally increases to about 3 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 0.25 by the beginning of 2009, and generally increases to end at about 1. It is at about 1 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Par yields from a smoothed nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve. Source. Board staff estimates. Figure: Inflation compensation Line chart, by percent, 2006 to March 12, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Next 5 years" and "5-to-10 year forward". They begin at about 2.5, both series remain about constant until mid-2008. Next 5 years generally decreases to about -1.50 by the end of 2008, generally increases to 0.50 by the beginning of 2009 and ends at about 0.0. It is at about 0.0 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 5to-10 year forward generally increases to about 3.5 by the end of 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2.5. It is at about 3.0 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yield curves and adjusted for the indexation-lag (carry) effect. Source. Barclays, PLC.; Bloomberg; Board staff estimates. Figure: Survey measures of inflation expectations Line chart, by percent, 2002 to February 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "Michigan Survey 1-year" and "Michigan Survey 10-year". Michigan Survey 1-year begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 3 by the beginning of 2003. It then generally decreases 1.75 by mid-2003, and fluctuates but generally increases to about 5 by the start of 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 2. Michigan Survey 10-year begins at about 2.75 and fluctuates but remains about constant to end at about 3. Source. Reuters/University of Michigan. Chart 4 Asset Market Developments Figure: Equity prices Line chart, 2002 to March 12, 2009. Index (12/31/2001=100). Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Wilshire 5000" and "Dow Jones Financial". They begin at about 100 and generally increase together until about 140 by the end of 2007. Wilshire 5000 generally decreases to end at about 70. It is at about 80 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Dow Jones Financial generally decreases to end at about 37. It is at about 40 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source. Bloomberg Figure: Implied volatility on S&P 500 (VIX) Line chart, by percent, 2009 to March 12, 2009. Data are weekly, as measured on Fridays or the most recent business day. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. It begins at about 20 and generally increases to about 45 by mid-2002. It then generally decreases to about 2 by the beginning of 2007, and generally increases to about 80 by the end of 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 40. It is at about 56 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source. Chicago Board of Exchange Figure: Corporate bond spreads Line chart, by basis points, 2002 to March 12, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "10-year BBB" and "10-year High-Yield". These two series use two different scales. 10-year BBB begins at about 200 and generally increases to about 300 by the end of 2002. It then generally decreases to about 50 by the beginning of 2005, and then generally increases to about 650 by 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 560. It is at about 540 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 10-year High-Yield begins at about 500 and generally increases to about 800 by the end of 2002. It then generally decreases to about 250 by the beginning of 2005, and generally increases to about 1600 by the end of 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1300. It is at about 1100 at the time of January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Measured relative to an estimated off-the-run Treasury yield curve. Source. Merrill Lynch and Board staff estimates. Figure: Fannie Mae debt and MBS spreads Line chart, by basis points, January 2008 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "10-year debt" and "MBS spread". 10-year debt begins at about -1 and generally increases to about 50 by March 2008. It then decreases to about 20 by midMarch 2008, and remains about constant until September. It then generally increases to about 180 by November 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 78. It is at about 80 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. MBS spread begins at about 80 and generally increases to about 140 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 90 by May 2008. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 220 by November 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 110. It is at about 120 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Spreads over swaps of comparable maturity. Source. Bloomberg. Figure: Residential mortgage rates and spreads Line chart, January 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are weekly. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "FRM rate", which is by percent, and "FRM spread", which is by basis points. These two series use two different scales. FRM rate begins at about 6.1 and generally increases to about 6.7 by June 2007. It then decreases to about 5.5 by the end of January 2008, and then generally increases to about 6.6 by August 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 5.0. It is at about 5.0 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. FRM spread begins at about 145 and generally increases to about 255 by March 2008. It then decreases to about 210 by June 2008. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 300 by the beginning of January, and generally decreases to end at about 215. It is at about 255 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. FRM spread is relative to 10-year Treasury. Source. Freddie Mac Figure: AAA ABS spreads Line chart, by basis points, January 2007 to 2009. Data are weekly. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "2-year credit card", "2-year auto", and "3-year FFELP". They begin at about 0 and generally increase together to about 30 by November 2007. 2-year credit card then generally increases to about 550 by the beginning of 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 300. It is at about 310 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 2-year auto generally increases to about 450 by December 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 250. It is at about 330 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 3-year FFELP generally increases to about 350 by the beginning of January 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 180. It is at about 200 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Last observations for 2-year auto and credit card ABS spreads is March 6. Last observation for 3-year FFELP is February 27. Source. For credit card and auto spreads, trader estimates provided by Citigroup. For FFELP spreads, trader estimates provided by Merrill Lynch. Chart 5 International Financial Indicators Figure: Ten-year government bond yields (nominal) Line chart, by percent, 2006 to 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "UK", "Germany", and "Japan". These three series use two different scales, UK and Germany share one and Japan has its own. UK begins at about 4.1 and generally increases to about 5.5 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 4.4 by the beginning of 2008, and generally increases to about 5.3 by mid 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.0. Germany begins at about 3.4 and generally increases to about 4.6 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 3.7 by the beginning of 2008, and generally increases to about 4.6 by mid-2008. It then decreases to end at about 3.0. It is at about 3.3 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Japan begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 2.0 by mid-2006. It fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about 1.35. It is at about 3.4 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Last daily observation is for March 12, 2009 Source. Bloomberg. Figure: Nominal trade-weighted dollar indexes Line chart, 2006 to 2009. Data are daily. Index (12/30/05=100). The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Broad", "Major Currencies", and "Other Important Trading Partners". They begin at about 100 and generally decrease. Broad generally decreases to about 85 by mid-2008, and then generally increases to end at about 103. It is at about 99 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Major Currencies generally decreases to about 80 by the beginning of 2008, and then generally increases to end at about 100. It is at about 95 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Other Important Trading Partners generally decreases to about 88 by mid-2008, and then generally increases to end at about 105. It is at about 103 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Last daily observation is for March 12, 2009. Source. FRBNY and Bloomberg. Figure: Stock price indexes: Industrial countries Line chart, 2006 to 2009. Index (12/30/05=100). Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "UK (FTSE350)", "Euro Area (DJ Euro)", and "Japan (Topix)". UK (FTSE-350) begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 120 by the end of 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 65. It is at about 72 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Euro Area (DJ Euro) begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 131 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 50. It is at about 60 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Japan (Topix) begins at about 100 and fluctuates but remains about constant until mid-2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 41. It is at about 48 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Last daily observation is for March 12, 2009. Source. Bloomberg Figure: Stock price indexes: Emerging market economies Line chart, 2006 to 2009. Index (12/29/05=100). Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Brazil (Bovespa)", "Korea (KOSPI)", and "Mexico (Bolsa)". Brazil (Bovespa) begins at about 100 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 220 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 115. It is at about 115 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Korea (KOSPI) begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 150 by the end of 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 76. It is at about 77 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Mexico (Bolsa) begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 175 by 2007. It then fluctuates but remains about constant until mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 100. It is at about 110 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note. Last daily observation is for March 12, 2009. Source. Bloomberg. Chart 6 Debt and Money Growth of debt of nonfinancial sectors Percent, s.a.a.r. Total Business Household Government 2007 8.6 2008 13.1 6.6 6.1 5.8 4.7 0.4 17.6 Q1 5.2 7.2 3.0 6.7 Q2 3.1 5.8 0.3 4.5 Q3 8.1 4.1 0.2 28.6 Q4 6.3 1.5 -2.0 27.1 Q1p 4.4 2.9 -2.6 17.5 2009 Source. Flow of Funds. p Projected. Return to table Figure: Growth of debt of household sector Line chart, by percent, 1991 to 2009:Q1. Data are quarterly, s.a.a.r. There are two series, "Home mortgage" and "Consumer credit". Home mortgage begins at about 8.5 and generally decreases to about 4 by late 1995. It then generally increases to about 16 by 2003, and generally decreases to end at about -2. Consumer credit begins at about 0, generally increases to about 17 by 1994, decreases to about 8 by 1996, then fluctuates between about 3 and 12 until 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -2. Note. 2009:Q1 values are projected. Source. Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve G.19 release Figure: Growth of house prices Line chart, by percent, 1996 to 2008:Q4. Data are annual rate, s.a. There are two series, "FHFA purchase-only index" and "S&P Case-Shiller national index." S&P begins at about 3 and FHFA begins at about 4.5. Both series general increase together until about mid-2005, when S&P is at about 18 and FHFA is at about 7. Both series then generally decrease to the end. S&P ends at about -23 and FHFA ends at about -13. Source. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Standard & Poor's. Figure: Changes in selected components of debt of nonfinancial business sector. Bar chart, in billions of dollars, 2006 to February 2009. Data are monthly rate. There are three series, "C&I loans", "Commercial paper", and "Bonds". Commercial paper and C&I loans are seasonally adjusted, bonds are not. There is also a "Sum" series presented as a line chart which sums the total of the other series. Approximate values are: 2006: Bonds 20, C&I 10, Commercial paper 3, Sum 33. 2007: Bonds 27, C&I 22, Commercial paper 0, Sum 49. 2008:Q1: Bonds 15, C&I 13, Commercial paper 4, Sum 32. 2008:Q2: Bonds 30, C&I 10, Commercial paper -5, Sum 35. 2008:Q3: Bonds 8, C&I 20, Commercial paper 5, Sum 33. 2008:Q4: Bonds 15, C&I 0, Commercial paper 2, Sum 17. Jan 2009: Bonds 33, C&I 5, Commercial paper 4, Sum 42. Feb 2009: Bonds 58, C&I -20, Commercial paper -22, Sum 16. Source. Securities Data Company, Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, and Federal Reserve H.8 release. Figure: Growth of unused commitments at commercial banks Line chart, by percent, 1989 to 2008:Q4. Data are annual rate, n.s.a. There are three series, "Other", "Home equity lines of credit", and "Credit card lines". Other begins at about -1 and generally increases to about 20 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about -5 by 2002, then increases to about 20 by 2007. It then decreases to end at about -30. Home equity lines of credit begins at about 21 and generally decreases to about -5 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 45 by 2003, and then generally decreases to end at about -18. Credit card lines begins at about 70 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about -10 by 1999. It then continues to fluctuate but generally decreases to end at about -30. Source. Call reports. Figure: Growth of M2 Bar chart, by percent, 2006 to February 2009. Data are s.a.a.r. The series starts at about 5 and fluctuates but remains about constant until 2008:Q3. It then increases to about 15 in 2008:Q4 and decreases to about 4.5 by the end. Source. Federal Reserve. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Bluebook Tables and Charts† Monetary Policy Strategies Chart 7 Equilibrium Real Federal Funds Rate Figure: Short-Run Estimates with Confidence Intervals Line chart, by percent, 1990 to 2009. There are five series, "The actual real funds rate based on lagged core inflation", "Greenbook-consistent measure", "Range of model-based estimates", "70 Percent confidence interval" and "90 Percent confidence interval." The actual real funds rate series start at about 4.5, decreases to about 0 by 1992, generally increases to about 4.5 by 2001, generally decreases to about -1 by 2005, increases to about 3 by 2007, and decreases to end at about -1.5. Greenbook-consistent measure starts at about 4 in 1997. It generally increases to about 5 by 2000, generally decreases to about 0 by 2003, generally increases to about 3 by 2007, and decreases to end at about -5. The other 3 series closely track each other throughout the chart, with the 70 percent confidence interval being about 1 percent both lesser and greater than the Range of model-based estimates, and the 90 Percent confidence interval being about 2 percent both lesser and greater than the Range of model-based estimates at any given point. The Range of model-based estimates starts at between about 1.5 and 4, decreases to between about -0.5 and 2 by 1991, generally increases to between about 1 and 4 by 2000, generally decreases to between about -2 and 0 by 2003, increases to between about 2 and 3 by 2006, then decreases to end at about between -10 and -2. Short-Run and Medium-Run Measures Current Estimate Previous Bluebook Short-Run Measures Single-equation model -2.0 -0.1 Small structural model -10.0 -6.2 Large model (FRB/US) -8.6 -6.8 Confidence intervals for three model-based estimates 70 percent confidence interval -10.4 - -1.7 90 percent confidence interval -11.4 - -0.4 Greenbook-consistent measure -5.2 -3.0 Single-equation model 1.4 1.7 Small structural model 0.3 0.7 Medium-Run Measures Confidence intervals for two model-based estimates 70 percent confidence interval -0.2 - 2.1 90 percent confidence interval -0.6 - 3.0 TIPS-based factor model 2.0 2.0 -1.4 -1.7 Memo Actual real federal funds rate Note: Appendix A provides background information regarding the construction of these measures and confidence intervals. The actual real federal funds rate shown is based on lagged core inflation as a proxy for inflation expectation. For information regarding alternative measures, see Appendix A. Chart 8 Constrained vs. Unconstrained Monetary Policy (2 Percent Inflation Goal) Figure: Nominal Federal Funds Rate Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Previous Bluebook: Constrained", and "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained". They begin at about 0. Current Bluebook: Constrained and Previous Bluebook: Constrained remain constant to end at about 0. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained generally decreases to about -6.50 by mid-2010, and then generally increases to end at about 2. Figure: Real Federal Funds Rate Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Previous Bluebook: Constrained", and "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained". They begin at about -1.50. Current Bluebook: Constrained and Previous Bluebook: Constrained generally increase to end at about -1. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained generally decreases to about -8 by 2010, and then generally increases to end at about -0.5. Figure: Civilian Unemployment Rate Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Previous Bluebook: Constrained", and "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained". Current Bluebook: Constrained and Current Bluebook: Unconstrained begin at about 8 and generally increase together until about mid-2009. Current Bluebook: Constrained generally increases to about 9.5 by the end of 2010. It then generally decreases to end at about 5.1. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained generally increases to about 9 by the end of 2009, and then generally decreases to end at about 4.9. Previous Bluebook: Constrained begins at about 7.8 and generally increases to about 8.4 by the end of 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 4. Figure: Core PCE Inflation Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. Data are four-quarter averages. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Previous Bluebook: Constrained", and "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained". They begin at about 1.5. Current Bluebook: Constrained and Previous Bluebook: Constrained generally decrease together until they reach about 1.0 by the end of 2009. Current Bluebook: Constrained generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2011, and then generally increases to end at about 1.0. Previous Bluebook: Constrained generally increases to about 1.1 by the beginning of 2010, and then generally decreases to about 0.8 by mid 2012. It then increases to end at about 1.0. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained generally decreases to about 1.3 by the end of 2009, and then generally increases to about 1.5 by 2010. It then decreases to about 1.2 by mid-2010, and generally increases to end at about 2.5. [Box:] Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Unconstrained Optimal Policy Figure: Civilian Unemployment Rate Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are five series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "$500bn in MBS", "$500bn in MBS +$500bn in Treasuries", "$1,000bn in MBS + $1,000bn in Treasuries", and "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained". They begin at about 8 and generally increase. Current Bluebook: Constrained generally increases to about 9.4 by mid-2010, and then generally decreases to end at about 5. $500bn in MBS generally increases to about 9.2 by 2010, and then generally decreases to end at about 5. $500bn in MBS + $500bn in Treasuries generally increases to about 9 by 2010, and then generally decreases to about 4.8. $1,000bn in MBS + $1,000bn in Treasuries generally increases to about 8.9 by the end of 2009, and then generally decreases to end at about 4.5. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained generally increases to about 9 by then end of 2009 and then generally decreases to end at about 5. Figure: Core PCE Inflation Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. Data are four-quarter averages. There are five series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "$500bn in MBS", "$500bn in MBS +$500bn in Treasuries", "$1,000bn in MBS + $1,000bn in Treasuries", and "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained". They begin at about 1.5 and generally decrease. Current Bluebook: Constrained generally decreases to about 1.0 by mid-2009, and then continues at a constant before generally decreasing to about 0.5 by 2011. It then increases to end at about 1.0. "$500bn in MBS generally decreases to about 0.75 by mid-2010 and then generally increases to end at about 1.3. $500bn in MBS +$500bn in Treasuries generally decreases to about 0.25 by mid-2011, and then generally increases to end at about 1.5. $1,000bn in MBS + $1,000bn in Treasuries generally decreases to about 0.75 by mid-2011, and then generally increases to end at about 1.75. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained generally decreases to about 1.25 by mid-2009, and then generally increases to about 1.5 by the beginning of 2010. It then generally decreases to about 1.25 by mid-2010, and then generally increases to end at about 2.5. Chart 9 The Policy Outlook in an Uncertain Environment Figure: FRB/US Model Simulations of Estimated Outcome-Based Rule Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook", "Previous Bluebook", and "Greenbook assumption". They begin at about 0. Current Bluebook begins to generally increase by the end of 2012, and continues to generally increase to end at about 1.75. Previous Bluebook begins to generally increase by the end of 2011, and continues to generally increase to end at about 3. Greenbook assumption remains at a constant to end at about 0. Note. There is dark and light shading that represents the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. The 70 percent interval covers about 0 to 3 and the 90 percent interval covers about 0 to 4 by the end of the chart. Figure: Information from Financial Markets Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are two series, "Current Bluebook" and "Previous Bluebook". They begin at about 0. Current Bluebook generally increases to end at about 3. Previous Bluebook generally increases to end at about 2.50. Note. There is dark and light shading that represents the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. The 90 percent interval covers about 1 to 5.75 and the 70 percent interval covers about 1.50 to 4.25. In the previous Bluebook, the 90 percent interval covers about 0.50 to 5 and the 70 percent interval covers about 1 to 3.75. Near-Term Prescriptions of Simple Policy Rules 1½ Percent Inflation Objective 2 Percent Inflation Objective 2009Q2 Taylor (1993) rule Previous Bluebook Taylor (1999) rule Previous Bluebook First-difference rule Previous Bluebook 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q3 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.30 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Memo 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 Estimated outcome-based rule 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Estimated forecast-based rule 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Greenbook assumption 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Fed funds futures 0.24 0.29 0.38 0.52 0.77 Median expectation of primary dealers 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Blue Chip consensus forecast (March 1, 2009) 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.70 Note: Appendix B provides background information regarding the specification of each rule and the methodology used in constructing confidence intervals and near-term prescriptions. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Bluebook Tables and Charts Bank Credit, Debt, and Money Forecasts Table 1: Growth rates for M2 (percent, annual rate) Greenbook forecast* Monthly Growth Rates Jul-08 7.9 Aug-08 -1.8 Sep-08 17.0 Oct-08 18.4 Nov-08 8.6 Dec-08 27.3 Jan-09 13.2 Feb-09 4.6 Mar-09 4.4 Apr-09 0.5 May-09 0.0 Jun-09 -1.0 Quarterly Growth Rates 2008 Q1 8.1 2008 Q2 5.4 2008 Q3 4.8 2008 Q4 14.8 2009 Q1 13.0 2009 Q2 1.6 Annual Growth Rates 2008 2009 2.9 2010 Growth From 8.5 2.2 To Feb-09 Jun-09 1.0 2008 Q4 Mar-09 10.9 2008 Q4 Jun-09 6.2 * This forecast is consistent with nominal GDP and interest rates in the Greenbook forecast. Actual data through February 2009; projections after. Return to table Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Bluebook Tables and Charts Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate Measure Singleequation Model Description The measure of the equilibrium real rate in the single-equation model is based on an estimated aggregate-demand relationship between the current value of the output gap and its lagged values as well as the lagged values of the real federal funds rate. Small Structural Model The small-scale model of the economy consists of equations for six variables: the output gap, the equity premium, the federal budget surplus, the trend growth rate of output, the real bond yield, and the real federal funds rate. Large Model (FRB/US) Estimates of the equilibrium real rate using FRB/US--the staff's large-scale econometric model of the U.S. economy--depend on a very broad array of economic factors, some of which take the form of projected values of the model's exogenous variables. Greenbook- The FRB/US model is used in conjunction with an extended version of the Greenbook forecast to derive a Greenbook-consistent measure. FRB/US is first addconsistent factored so that its simulation matches the extended Greenbook forecast, and then a second simulation is run off this baseline to determine the value of the real federal funds rate that closes the output gap. TIPS-based Yields on TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) reflect investors' expectations of the future path of real interest rates, but also include term and liquidity premiums. The TIPS-based measure of the equilibrium real rate is constructed using the seven-year-ahead instantaneous real forward rate derived from TIPS Factor yields as of the Bluebook publication date. This forward rate is adjusted to remove estimates of the term and liquidity premiums based on a three-factor arbitrageModel free term-structure model applied to TIPS yields, nominal yields, and inflation. Because TIPS indexation is based on the total CPI, this measure is also adjusted for the medium-term difference--projected at 40 basis points--between total CPI inflation and core PCE inflation. Actual real Proxy used for expected inflation federal funds rate (current value) Greenbook-consistent measure of the equilibrium real funds rate (current value) Average actual real funds rate (twelve-quarter average) Lagged core inflation -1.4 -5.2 -0.6 Lagged headline inflation -0.5 -5.0 -0.4 Projected headline inflation -0.9 -5.2 -0.6 Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts† Domestic Developments [Box:] Implications of the Zero Bound for Monetary Policy in the Projection Figure: Federal Funds Rate Line chart, 2008 to 2013. There are 2 series, "Unconstrained monetary policy" and "Constrained monetary policy". They begin at about 3 and generally decrease together until 2009 when they reach about 0. Unconstrained monetary policy generally decreases to about -6.5 by mid-2010. This decrease is labeled 'Monetary Policy "Shortfall"'. It then generally increases to end at about 2. Constrained monetary policy remains close to 0 to the end. Figure: Unemployment Rate Line chart, 2008 to 2013. There are 2 series, "Unconstrained monetary policy" and "Constrained monetary policy". They begin at about 5 and generally increase together until 2009 at about 8.75. Unconstrained monetary policy generally increases to about 9.5 by 2010, and then generally decreases to end at about 5.5. Constrained monetary policy generally increases to about 9 by the beginning of 2010, and then generally decreases to end at about 4.75. Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2009:Q1. In the upper-left panel that reports the federal funds rate, the dashed line is not apparent because the paths of the federal funds rate in the January and current Greenbooks are the same. Figure: Federal Funds Rate Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2010. Data are quarterly averages. There are three series, "Current Greenbook", "January Greenbook", and "Market forecast". They begin at about 2.5 and generally increase to about 5.1 by mid-2006. They remain about constant until late 2007. They then generally decrease to about 0.1 by early 2009. Current Greenbook and January Greenbook remain at 0 to the end. Market forecast generally increases to end at about 1. Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2010. Data are quarterly averages. There are six series, "Baa corporate rate", "Conforming mortgage rate" and "10-year Treasury rate". The January Greenbook is also marked separately for each series. Baa corporate rate and the January Greenbook begin at about 6 and generally increase to about 8.9 by the end of 2008. Baa corporate rate generally decreases to end at about 7, and January Greenbook generally decreases to end at about 6.2. Conforming mortgage rate and the January Greenbook begin at about 5.9 and then generally increase to about 6.5 by 2007. They continue to track closely together, generally decreasing, until 2009 at about 5. Conforming mortgage rate generally increases to end at about 5.2 and January Greenbook remains about constant to end at about 5. 10-year Treasury rate and January Greenbook begin at about 4.2 and then generally increase to about 5 by 2006. They then generally decrease to about 3.1 by 2009. 10-year Treasury rate generally increases to end at about 3.2. January Greenbook generally decreases to about 2.8 by 2009 and then generally increases to end at about 3. Figure: Equity Prices Line chart, 2005 to 2010. 2005:Q1 = 100, ratio scale. Data are quarter-end values. There are two series, "Wilshire 5000" and "January Greenbook". They begin at about 100 and generally increase to about 130 by the end of 2007. They track closely together, generally decreasing until about 79 by late 2008. Wilshire 5000 generally decreases to about 65 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 81. January Greenbook generally increases to end at about 91. Figure: House Prices Line chart, 2005 to 2010. 2005:Q1 = 100, ratio scale. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Loan Performance index" and "January Greenbook". They track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 100 and generally increase to about 110 by the beginning of 2007. They then generally decrease to end at about 75. Figure: Crude Oil Prices Line chart, by dollars per barrel, 2005 to 2010. Data are quarterly averages. There are two series, "West Texas intermediate", and "January Greenbook". They begin at about 50 and generally increase to about 128 by 2008. They continue to track closely together, generally decreasing until about 45 by 2009. West Texas intermediate generally increases to end at about 55. January Greenbook generally increases to end at about 60. Figure: Broad Real Dollar Line chart, 2005 to 2010. 2005:Q1 = 100. Data are quarterly averages. There are two series, "Current Greenbook" and "January Greenbook". They begin at about 100 and generally increase to about 104 by late 2005. They generally decrease to about 89 by 2008. They continue to track closely together, generally increasing until about 98 by the end of 2008. Current Greenbook generally increases to about 103 by mid-2009 and decreases to end at about 99 and January Greenbook generally decreases to end at about 96. Summary of the Near-Term Outlook (Percent change at annual rate except as noted) 2009:Q1 Measure 2009:Q2 January March January March Greenbook Greenbook Greenbook Greenbook Real GDP -5.6 -6.5 -1.3 -2.0 -5.9 -5.3 -2.8 -4.3 -1.7 .4 .6 .0 Residential investment -40.7 -41.2 -21.0 -34.3 Business fixed investment -19.8 -27.3 -19.3 -23.4 .4 -.2 2.8 5.5 Private domestic final purchases Personal consumption expenditures Government outlays for consumption and investment Contribution to growth (percentage points) Inventory investment -2.0 .6 .5 1.2 Net exports -2.2 .1 -.1 .0 [Box:] Fiscal Stimulus Package Federal Cost of the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Package (Billions of dollars) Component March Greenbook January Greenbook Total cost 787 800 Taxes 283 300 232 180 Personal tax cuts Business tax cuts 51 500 176 Grants for state and local operating budgets 120 504 Spending programs 200 Grants for state and local infrastructure 100 200 Transfer payments 116 90 Federal purchases 69 10 Subsidies for long-term programs 45 0 Projections of Real GDP (Percent change at annual rate from end of preceding period except as noted) Measure Real GDP Previous Greenbook Final sales 2008:H2 2009:H1 2009:H2 2010 -3.6 -4.2 -.3 1.5 -2.7 -3.5 2.0 2.6 -4.0 -3.4 -1.5 1.4 Previous Greenbook -2.9 Personal consumption expenditures -2.7 .0 2.6 -4.1 .2 .6 1.9 -3.9 -.6 1.9 2.9 -19.8 -37.9 -9.5 6.7 -22.3 -31.6 -11.1 10.0 -12.2 -25.4 -19.7 -.9 -7.4 -19.5 -13.8 3.0 3.5 2.6 4.3 1.8 4.6 1.6 3.3 2.5 -11.3 -15.1 -2.3 1.0 -9.2 -3.9 -.1 2.4 -10.0 -12.5 3.2 3.8 -9.6 -6.9 5.8 5.4 Previous Greenbook Residential investment Previous Greenbook Business fixed investment Previous Greenbook Government purchases Previous Greenbook Exports Previous Greenbook Imports Previous Greenbook Contribution to growth (percentage points) Inventory change .4 .1 1.9 .0 .1 -.7 -.4 .5 Previous Greenbook 1.2 -.7 .3 Net exports -.8 .2 Previous Greenbook .6 -.8 -.5 … Not applicable. Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity Nonfarm Business Sector (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure 1974-95 1996-2000 2001-06 2007 2008 2009 2010 Structural labor productivity 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 Previous Greenbook 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 .7 1.4 .7 .6 .4 -.3 -.3 .7 1.4 .7 .6 .4 -.1 .1 .5 .7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7 .5 .7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .2 .1 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 Contributions1 Capital deepening Previous Greenbook Multifactor productivity Previous Greenbook Labor composition MemO Potential GDP Previous Greenbook Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown. 1. Percentage points. Return to table … Not applicable. The Outlook for the Labor Market (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure Output per hour, nonfarm business Previous Greenbook Nonfarm private payroll employment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.6 2.1 .9 2.0 2.7 2.4 1.1 2.0 .8 -2.1 -3.8 -.1 Previous Greenbook .9 -1.9 -2.2 .4 -1.5 -2.6 .4 .4 -1.5 -1.1 1.1 Labor force participation rate1 66.0 65.9 65.3 65.1 Previous Greenbook 66.0 65.9 65.5 65.3 Household survey employment Previous Greenbook 1.0 Civilian unemployment rate1 4.8 6.9 9.2 9.5 Previous Greenbook 4.8 6.9 8.4 8.1 -.4 -3.7 -7.7 -8.2 -.3 -3.2 -6.0 -5.5 MemO GDP gap 2 Previous Greenbook 1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter. Return to table 2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Return to table … Not applicable. Inflation Projections (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure 2007 2008 2009 2010 PCE chain-weighted price index 3.5 Food and beverages .4 .8 3.5 Previous Greenbook 1.9 1.7 .6 1.1 4.5 -8.6 -11.3 4.5 -9.8 -8.8 5.2 1.9 1.0 .5 2.2 Consumer price index 1.2 2.2 Previous Greenbook 1.2 2.0 19.1 Previous Greenbook Excluding food and energy 1.9 6.2 19.1 Energy 6.3 4.5 Previous Greenbook 1.9 1.0 .8 4.0 Previous Greenbook .3 1.1 1.5 .4 1.3 2.3 Excluding food and energy 1.5 4.0 Previous Greenbook 2.0 1.3 .7 2.3 ECI for compensation of private industry workers 1 Previous Greenbook 1.3 1.0 2.0 1.6 .8 2.6 Previous Greenbook 2.0 2.6 GDP chain-weighted price index 2.3 1.5 .9 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.5 3.6 4.1 2.2 1.1 Previous Greenbook 3.6 3.4 2.1 1.5 Prices of core goods imports 2 3.4 3.6 -4.2 1.1 Previous Greenbook 3.4 3.4 -3.2 1.3 Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector 1. December to December. Return to table 2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table The Long-Term Outlook (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure Real GDP Civilian unemployment rate1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -0.9 -2.3 1.5 3.9 5.3 5.3 6.9 9.2 9.5 8.6 6.9 5.6 PCE prices, total 1.9 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 Core PCE prices 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 Federal funds rate1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table Alternative Scenarios (Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted) 2009 Measure and scenario 2010 H1 2011 H2 201213 Real GDP Extended Greenbook baseline -4.2 -.3 1.5 3.9 5.3 Delayed financial repair -4.2 -.8 -.4 3.1 4.6 Intensifying financial strains -7.0 -4.5 1.0 3.8 5.1 Faster recovery -3.5 2.3 3.1 4.3 5.2 More adverse supply conditions -4.6 -1.6 .4 2.9 4.3 Anchored inflation expectations -4.2 -.3 1.6 4.0 5.6 Deflation -4.2 -.3 1.5 3.8 4.8 Extended Greenbook baseline 8.7 9.2 9.5 8.6 5.6 Delayed financial repair 8.7 9.2 10.2 9.7 7.0 Intensifying financial strains 9.0 10.2 11.1 10.1 7.1 Faster recovery 8.6 8.8 8.4 7.3 4.4 More adverse supply conditions 8.8 9.4 10.0 9.3 6.4 Anchored inflation expectations 8.7 9.2 9.5 8.5 5.4 Deflation 8.7 9.2 9.5 8.6 5.9 Extended Greenbook baseline 1.2 .8 .5 .5 .7 Delayed financial repair 1.2 .8 .4 .1 -.2 Intensifying financial strains 1.2 .6 -.1 -.5 -.9 Faster recovery 1.2 .8 .8 1.2 1.7 More adverse supply conditions 1.3 1.1 .9 .9 1.1 Anchored inflation expectations 1.2 .9 .7 .9 1.3 .8 .3 -.3 -.6 -.9 Extended Greenbook baseline .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Delayed financial repair .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Intensifying financial strains .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Faster recovery .1 .1 .1 .1 3.9 More adverse supply conditions .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Anchored inflation expectations .1 .1 .1 .1 1.1 Deflation .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Unemployment rate1 Core PCE inflation Deflation Federal funds rate1 1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations Measure 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -2.3 1.5 3.9 5.3 5.3 Greenbook forecast errors -3.7 - -.8 .1-3.0 … … … FRB/US stochastic simulations -3.2 - -1.4 .2-2.6 2.4-5.1 3.7-6.5 3.6-6.5 9.2 9.5 8.6 6.9 5.6 Greenbook forecast errors 8.8-9.7 8.6-10.4 … … … FRB/US stochastic simulations 8.9-9.6 9.1-10.0 8.1-9.2 6.4-7.6 5.2-6.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 Greenbook forecast errors -.4-1.2 -.3-1.8 … … … FRB/US stochastic simulations -.1-.9 .1-1.4 -.3-1.4 -.3-1.4 -.3-1.5 Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4) Projection Confidence interval Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4) Projection Confidence interval PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4) Projection Confidence interval PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4) Projection 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 Greenbook forecast errors .5-1.5 -.4-1.3 … … … FRB/US stochastic simulations .7-1.3 -.1-.9 -.3-1.0 -.3-1.1 -.2-1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 .1-1.3 .1-1.8 .1-2.0 .1-2.0 .1-2.0 Confidence interval Federal funds rate (percent, Q4) Projection Confidence interval FRB/US stochastic simulations Notes: Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1987-2007. Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 19872007 set of model equation residuals. … Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years. Return to table Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios Confidence Intervals Based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations Figure: Real GDP Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2013. There are 7 series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "Delayed financial repair", "Intensifying financial strains", "Faster recovery", "More adverse supply conditions", "Anchored inflation expectations", and "Deflation". They begin at about 1.4 and generally decrease together until about -2.5 by 2009. Extended Greenbook baseline generally increases to end at about 5.2. Delayed financial repair generally increases to end at about 4.5. Intensifying financial strains generally decreases to about -6.1 by mid-2009, and then generally increases to end at about 5. Faster recovery generally increases to end at about 4.8. More adverse supply conditions generally decreases to about -4.5 by 2009, and then generally increases to end at about 4.4. Anchored inflation expectations generally increases to end at about 5.9. Deflation generally increases to end at about 4.7. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from about 3 to 7.5 and a 70 percent confidence interval, which ranges from about 3.8 to 6.5. Figure: Unemployment Rate Line chart, by Percent, 2007 to 2013. There are 7 series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "Delayed financial repair", "Intensifying financial strains", "Faster recovery", "More adverse supply conditions", "Anchored inflation expectations", and "Deflation". They begin at about 4.5 and generally increase together until about 8.7 by 2009. Extended Greenbook baseline generally increases to about 9.6 by the end of 2010 and then generally decreases to end at about 5.6. Delayed financial repair generally increases to about 10.2 by late 2010 and then generally decreases to end at about 7.0. Intensifying financial strains generally increases to about 11.1 by the end of 2010 and then generally decreases to end at about 7.0. Faster recovery generally increases to about 8.8 by 2010 and then generally decreases to end at about 4.5. More adverse supply conditions generally increases to about 9.9 by mid-2010 and then generally decreases to end at about 6.5. Anchored inflation expectations generally increases to about 9.6 by the end of 2010 and then generally decreases to end at about 5.4. Deflation generally increases to about 9.6 by the end of 2010 and then generally decreases to end at about 6.0. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from about 4.7 to 7.0 and a 70 percent confidence interval, which ranges from about 5.1 to 6.6. Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2010. There are 7 series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "Delayed financial repair", "Intensifying financial strains", "Faster recovery", "More adverse supply conditions", "Anchored inflation expectations", and "Deflation". They begin at about 2.4 and generally decrease to about 2.0 by the end of 2007. They then generally increase to about 2.5 by 2008 and generally decrease together until about 1.6 by 2009. Extended Greenbook baseline generally decreases to end at about 0.75. Delayed financial repair generally decreases to end at about -0.25. Intensifying financial strains generally decreases to end at about -0.9. Faster recovery generally increases to end at about 1.80. More adverse supply conditions generally decreases to end at about 1.20. Anchored inflation expectations generally increases to end at about 1.4. Deflation generally decreases to end at about -1.0. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from about -0.7 to 1.75 and a 70 percent confidence interval, which ranges from about -.20 to 1.40. 70 percent interval covers from about -.20 to 1.40. Figure: Federal Funds Rate Line chart, by Percent, 2007 to 2013. There are 7 series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "Delayed financial repair", "Intensifying financial strains", "Faster recovery", "More adverse supply conditions", "Anchored inflation expectations", and "Deflation". They begin at about 5.3 and generally decrease to about 0 by early 2009. They track closely together until about 2012, where Faster recovery generally increases to end at about 3.9 and until about 2013 when Anchored inflation expectations generally increases to end at about 1. Extended Greenbook baseline", "Delayed financial repair", "Intensifying financial strains", More adverse supply conditions", and "Deflation" remain about constant to end at about 0. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from about 0 to 2.2 and a 70 percent confidence interval, which ranges from about 0 to 1.5. Evolution of the Staff Forecast Figure: Change in Real GDP Line chart, by Percent, Q4/Q4, 2007 to March 12, 2009. There are 3 series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 2.5 on January 24, 2007 and generally decreases to about 0.1 by March 13, 2008. It then generally increases to about 1.5 by September 10, 2008 and then generally decreases to end at about -1.1. 2009 begins at about 2.1 on September 12, 2007 and generally increases to about 3.0 by March 13, 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -2.3. 2010 begins at about 2.6 on September 10, 2009 and generally decreases to end at about 1.5. Figure: Unemployment Rate Line chart, by Percent, fourth quarter, 2007 to March 12, 2009. There are 3 series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 5.0 on January 24, 2007 and then generally increases to end at about 7.0. 2009 begins at about September 12, 2007 and generally increases to end at about 9.1. 2010 begins at about 5.9 on September 10, 2008 and generally increases to end at about 9.5. Figure: Changes in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy Line chart, by Percent, Q4/Q4, 2007 to March 12, 2009. There are 3 series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 2.0 on January 24, 2007 and generally increases to about 2.4 by October 21, 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.9. 2009 begins at about 1.8 on September 12, 2007 and generally increases to about 2.3 by July 29, 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.0. 2010 begins at about 1.8 on September 10, 2008 and generally decreases to end at about 0.5. Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment (Percent, annual rate except as noted) Nominal GDP PCE price index Core PCE price index Unemployment rate 1 Real GDP Interval 1/22/09 3/12/09 1/22/09 3/12/09 1/22/09 3/12/09 1/22/09 3/12/09 1/22/09 3/12/09 Quarterly 2008: Q1 3.5 3.5 .9 .9 3.6 3.6 2.3 2.3 4.9 4.9 Q2 4.1 4.1 2.8 2.8 4.3 4.3 2.2 2.2 5.4 5.4 Q3 3.4 3.4 -.5 -.5 5.0 5.0 2.4 2.4 6.0 6.0 Q4 -3.3 -6.3 -4.9 -6.7 -5.6 -5.0 .6 .8 6.9 6.9 2009: Q1 -4.3 -3.3 -5.6 -6.5 -2.3 -1.4 .8 .9 7.7 8.0 Q2 1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -2.0 1.9 1.0 1.6 1.4 8.2 8.7 Q3 3.2 .6 1.8 -.5 1.5 1.1 1.0 .9 8.3 9.0 Q4 3.2 .8 2.1 -.1 1.2 1.0 .8 .7 8.4 9.2 2010: Q1 3.2 1.6 2.2 .7 1.2 .9 .8 .6 8.5 9.4 Q2 3.4 2.2 2.4 1.4 1.1 .8 .8 .5 8.4 9.5 Q3 3.6 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.0 .7 .8 .5 8.2 9.5 Q4 4.0 2.8 3.1 2.1 1.0 .7 .7 .4 8.1 9.5 3.8 3.8 1.8 1.8 3.9 3.9 2.2 2.2 .6 .6 Two-quarter 2 2008: Q2 Q4 .0 -1.6 -2.7 -3.6 -.4 -.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 2009: Q2 -1.7 -2.2 -3.5 -4.2 -.2 -.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.8 Q4 3.2 .7 2.0 -.3 1.4 1.0 .9 .8 .2 .5 2010: Q2 3.3 1.9 2.3 1.1 1.1 .8 .8 .5 .0 .3 Q4 3.8 2.7 2.9 2.0 1.0 .7 .8 .4 -.3 .0 2007:Q4 4.9 4.9 2.3 2.3 3.5 3.5 2.2 2.2 .4 .4 Four-quarter 3 2008:Q4 1.9 1.1 -.5 -.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2009:Q4 .7 -.8 -.8 -2.3 .6 .4 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.3 2010:Q4 3.6 2.3 2.6 1.5 1.1 .8 .8 .5 -.3 .3 2007 4.8 4.8 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 4.6 4.6 2008 3.5 3.3 1.2 1.1 3.3 3.3 2.2 2.2 5.8 5.8 2009 -.3 -1.5 -2.1 -3.2 -.2 -.1 1.2 1.2 8.2 8.7 2010 3.2 1.5 2.1 .6 1.2 .9 .9 .7 8.3 9.5 Annual 1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals. Return to table 2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table 3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items (Percent, annual rate except as noted) 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1 Item Q1 Real GDP Previous Greenbook Final sales Previous Greenbook Priv. dom. final purch. Previous Greenbook Personal cons. expend. Previous Greenbook Durables Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 .9 2.8 -.5 -6.7 -6.5 -2.0 -.5 -.1 .7 1.4 1.9 2.1 -.9 -2.3 1.5 .9 2.8 -.5 -4.9 -5.6 -1.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.1 -.5 -.8 2.6 .9 4.4 -1.3 -6.5 -4.3 -2.5 -1.9 -1.2 -.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 -.7 -2.5 1.4 .9 4.4 -1.3 -4.5 -3.6 -1.8 -.1 .2 1.3 3.0 3.3 2.9 -.2 -1.3 2.6 -.3 .7 -4.1 -7.5 -5.3 -4.3 -3.0 -1.2 .1 1.7 2.4 2.9 -2.8 -3.5 1.8 -.3 .7 -4.1 -6.1 -5.9 -2.8 -.3 .7 2.1 2.9 3.8 3.9 -2.5 -2.1 3.2 .9 1.2 -3.8 -4.3 .4 .0 .0 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 -1.5 .4 1.9 1.2 -3.8 -3.9 -1.7 .6 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.2 -1.4 .6 2.9 -2.8 -14.8 -22.0 2.4 -.5 4.2 5.5 4.6 7.4 4.7 2.7 -11.3 2.9 4.8 .9 -4.3 Nondurables -.4 3.9 -7.1 -9.3 -.1 .1 .1 .8 .7 2.0 3.0 2.9 -3.4 .2 2.2 Services 2.4 .7 -.1 1.4 .3 .0 -.6 .7 1.1 .9 1.3 2.1 1.1 .1 1.4 -25.1 -13.3 -16.0 -23.4 -41.2 -34.3 -13.4 -5.5 2.5 9.0 8.7 6.8 -19.6 -25.0 6.7 -25.1 -13.3 -16.0 -28.1 -40.7 -21.0 13.8 10.5 7.3 11.3 11.0 -20.9 -12.8 10.0 -1.6 3.2 6.6 -5.2 -22.6 -.9 2.7 6.4 7.5 -2.6 -16.7 3.0 Residential investment Previous Greenbook Business fixed invest. Previous Greenbook 8.6 2.4 2.5 -1.7 -21.6 -27.3 -23.4 -21.7 -17.8 -11.1 2.4 2.5 -1.7 -12.9 -19.8 -19.3 -15.9 -11.6 -4.1 Equipment & software -.6 Previous Greenbook -5.0 -7.5 -28.1 -26.6 -17.9 -17.4 -13.6 -8.3 5.2 11.1 14.3 -11.0 -19.0 -7.5 -20.3 -19.0 -13.2 .0 9.6 13.4 13.7 -8.7 -12.0 9.0 -9.0 -28.4 -31.9 -28.8 -24.9 -16.1 -13.4 -11.0 -8.1 6.4 -28.5 -12.2 Net exports 2 2 -5.0 18.5 9.7 8.6 18.5 9.7 -462 Previous Greenbook -.6 8.6 Nonres. structures -9.8 -5.3 -381 -353 -373 -370 -369 -384 -411 -353 -359 1.5 -21.0 -28.7 -25.6 -22.0 -11.5 5.2 -9.5 -6.6 -4.9 9.4 -24.4 -8.2 -438 -436 -442 -464 -392 -383 -445 -462 -381 -322 -324 -342 -375 -406 -406 -414 -438 -389 -341 -416 Exports 5.1 12.3 3.0 -23.6 -23.6 -5.6 -3.2 -1.3 -.3 .6 1.5 2.1 -1.8 -8.9 1.0 Imports -.8 -7.3 -3.5 -16.0 -19.7 -4.7 1.0 5.5 6.0 .2 2.5 6.6 -7.1 -5.0 3.8 1.9 3.9 5.8 1.2 -.2 5.5 5.5 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.2 3.2 3.4 1.8 1.9 3.9 5.8 3.4 .4 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.1 3.8 2.4 2.5 5.8 6.6 13.8 6.7 1.2 9.1 8.8 3.8 4.3 2.6 .3 .9 8.2 5.7 2.0 Defense 7.3 7.3 18.0 3.1 1.0 11.2 9.9 1.3 .5 .3 2.1 2.2 8.8 5.8 1.3 Nondefense 2.9 5.0 5.1 15.1 1.6 4.8 6.4 9.5 12.6 7.3 -3.1 -1.8 6.9 5.5 3.6 -.3 2.5 1.3 -2.0 -1.1 3.3 3.4 2.7 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.4 .4 2.1 1.7 -10 -51 -30 -31 -101 -87 -46 -16 13 0 -6 0 -30 -62 2 -10 -51 -30 -43 -101 -86 -33 21 47 31 15 22 -33 -50 29 -18 -55 -33 -36 -101 -87 -47 -17 11 -2 -7 -2 -36 -63 0 6 2 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 Previous Greenbook Govt. cons. & invest. Previous Greenbook Federal State & local Change in bus. inventories 2 Previous Greenbook Nonfarm 2 2 Farm2 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table 2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items (Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted) Item 2002 Real GDP 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 -.9 -2.3 1.5 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 -.5 -.8 2.6 .8 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 -.7 -2.5 1.4 .8 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 -.2 -1.3 2.6 1.1 4.1 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 -2.8 -3.5 1.8 1.1 4.1 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 -2.5 -2.1 3.2 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 2.2 -1.5 .4 1.9 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 2.2 -1.4 .6 2.9 Durables 1.2 8.3 5.6 1.2 6.9 4.2 -11.3 2.9 4.8 Nondurables 2.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.2 1.7 -3.4 .2 2.2 Services 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.1 .1 1.4 7.0 11.7 6.7 5.4 -15.5 -19.0 -19.6 -25.0 6.7 7.0 11.7 6.7 5.4 -15.5 -19.0 -20.9 -12.8 10.0 -6.5 4.9 7.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 -5.2 -22.6 -.9 Previous Greenbook -6.5 4.9 7.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 -2.6 -16.7 3.0 Equipment & software -3.4 6.6 9.4 7.0 4.2 2.8 -11.0 -19.0 5.2 Previous Greenbook Final sales Previous Greenbook Priv. dom. final purch. Previous Greenbook Personal cons. expend. Previous Greenbook Residential investment Previous Greenbook Business fixed invest. Previous Greenbook Net exports 1 Previous Greenbook 1 6.6 9.4 7.0 4.2 2.8 -8.7 -12.0 9.0 .2 2.3 -.5 12.8 14.5 6.4 -28.5 -12.2 -14.9 .2 2.3 -.5 12.8 14.5 9.4 -24.4 -8.2 -471 Previous Greenbook -3.4 -14.9 Nonres. structures -519 -594 -617 -616 -547 -392 -383 -445 -471 -519 -594 -617 -616 -547 -389 -341 -416 Exports 3.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 10.1 8.9 -1.8 -8.9 1.0 Imports 9.7 4.8 11.5 4.8 3.8 1.1 -7.1 -5.0 3.8 4.0 1.7 .7 .6 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.4 1.8 4.0 1.7 .7 .6 2.1 2.4 3.8 2.4 2.5 Govt. cons. & invest. Previous Greenbook Federal 7.8 5.5 2.4 1.0 2.9 2.3 8.2 5.7 2.0 Defense 8.4 7.5 2.5 .8 4.1 2.7 8.8 5.8 1.3 Nondefense 6.8 1.9 2.3 1.4 .5 1.5 6.9 5.5 3.6 2.1 -.4 -.4 .3 1.6 2.4 .4 2.1 1.7 12 14 54 39 42 -2 -30 -62 2 12 14 54 39 42 -2 -33 -50 29 15 14 48 39 46 -4 -36 -63 0 -2 0 6 0 -3 1 4 1 1 State & local Change in bus. inventories 1 Previous Greenbook 1 Nonfarm 1 1 Farm 1. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product (Percentage points, annual rate except as noted) 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1 Item Q1 Real GDP Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 .9 2.8 -.5 -6.7 -6.5 -2.0 -.5 -.1 .7 1.4 1.9 2.1 -.9 -2.3 1.5 .9 2.8 -.5 -4.9 -5.6 -1.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.1 -.5 -.8 2.6 .9 4.3 -1.4 -6.6 -4.2 -2.5 -1.9 -1.2 -.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 -.7 -2.5 1.4 .9 4.3 -1.4 -4.5 -3.5 -1.8 -.1 .2 1.3 3.0 3.3 2.9 -.2 -1.3 2.6 -.3 .6 -3.5 -6.4 -4.4 -3.6 -2.5 -1.0 .1 1.4 2.0 2.4 -2.4 -2.9 1.4 -.3 .6 -3.5 -5.2 -4.9 -2.4 -.2 .6 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.2 -2.1 -1.7 2.6 .6 .9 -2.8 -3.0 .4 .0 .0 .8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 -1.1 .3 1.4 .6 .9 -2.8 -2.7 -1.1 .4 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 -1.0 .4 2.0 -.3 -.2 -1.2 -1.7 .2 .0 .3 .4 .3 .5 .3 .2 -.9 .2 .3 Nondurables -.1 .8 -1.6 -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .4 .6 .6 -.7 .0 .4 Services 1.0 .3 .0 .7 .2 .0 -.3 .3 .5 .4 .6 .9 .5 .0 .6 -1.1 -.5 -.6 -.9 -1.5 -1.1 -.3 -.1 .1 .2 .2 .2 -.8 -.8 .2 -1.1 -.5 -.6 -1.1 -1.5 -.6 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 -.8 -.4 .3 .3 .3 -.2 -2.6 -3.2 -2.6 -2.2 -1.7 -1.0 -.1 .3 .5 -.6 -2.4 -.1 Previous Greenbook .3 .3 -.2 -1.5 -2.3 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 -.4 .2 .6 .6 -.3 -1.8 .3 Equipment & software .0 -.4 -.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.2 -1.1 -.8 -.5 .3 .6 .7 -.8 -1.2 .3 .0 -.4 -.6 -1.5 -1.4 -.9 -.6 -.3 .0 .5 .7 .8 -.6 -.8 .5 .3 .6 .4 -.4 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -.9 -.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 .2 -1.1 -.4 .3 .6 .4 .1 -.9 -1.3 -1.0 -.8 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .3 -1.0 -.3 .8 2.9 1.1 -.6 .1 .0 -.5 -.9 -.9 .0 -.2 -.7 1.0 -.3 -.4 .8 2.9 1.1 -.1 1.2 -.1 -.6 -1.1 -1.0 .0 -.3 -.8 1.1 -.1 -.5 Exports .6 1.5 .4 -3.5 -3.2 -.6 -.4 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .2 -.2 -1.1 .1 Imports .1 1.4 .7 3.0 3.3 .7 -.1 -.7 -.8 .0 -.4 -.9 1.2 .8 -.5 .4 .8 1.1 .3 .0 1.1 1.1 .7 .6 .5 .3 .3 .6 .7 .4 .4 .8 1.1 .7 .1 .6 .7 .7 .7 .6 .5 .5 .7 .5 .5 .4 .5 1.0 .5 .1 .7 .7 .3 .4 .2 .0 .1 .6 .4 .2 .3 .4 .9 .2 .1 .6 .5 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .4 .3 .1 Previous Greenbook Final sales Previous Greenbook Priv. dom. final purch. Previous Greenbook Personal cons. expend. Previous Greenbook Durables Residential investment Previous Greenbook Business fixed invest. Previous Greenbook Nonres. structures Previous Greenbook Net exports Previous Greenbook Govt. cons. & invest. Previous Greenbook Federal Defense Nondefense .1 Farm .1 .2 .2 .3 .2 -.1 .0 .2 .1 .1 .3 .2 -.2 -.1 .4 .4 .4 .2 .2 .3 .2 .0 .3 .2 .0 -1.5 .8 -.1 -2.2 .5 1.4 1.1 1.0 -.4 -.2 .2 -.2 .2 .1 -1.5 .8 -.4 -2.0 .6 1.9 1.9 .9 -.6 -.6 .2 -.3 .6 .0 .2 Nonfarm .0 -1.4 .8 -.1 -2.2 .5 1.4 1.0 1.0 -.4 -.2 .2 -.1 .2 .1 -.2 Previous Greenbook .3 .0 Change in bus. inventories .1 .0 State & local .1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table Changes in Prices and Costs (Percent, annual rate except as noted) 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1 Item Q1 GDP chain-wt. price index Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 PCE chain-wt. price index Previous Greenbook 2.6 1.1 3.9 .3 3.4 .9 1.1 .9 .8 .8 .7 .6 2.0 1.6 .8 2.6 Previous Greenbook 1.1 3.9 1.7 1.3 2.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 .8 2.3 1.5 .9 3.6 4.3 5.0 -5.0 -1.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 .7 .7 1.9 .4 .8 3.6 Previous Greenbook Food 4.3 5.0 -5.6 -2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.7 .6 1.1 19.0 Energy 27.4 31.7 -65.1 -36.0 -7.8 1.9 2.6 4.4 4.8 4.4 4.3 -8.6 -11.3 4.5 19.0 27.4 31.7 -66.8 -45.4 8.8 9.5 6.4 6.9 5.7 4.5 3.8 -9.8 -8.8 5.2 4.9 Ex. food & energy Previous Greenbook CPI 6.4 8.5 5.6 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 6.3 1.9 1.2 4.9 6.4 8.5 5.0 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 6.2 2.0 1.2 2.3 Previous Greenbook 2.2 2.4 .8 .9 1.4 .9 .7 .6 .5 .5 .4 1.9 1.0 .5 2.3 2.2 2.4 .6 .8 1.6 1.0 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 1.9 1.0 .8 4.5 4.5 6.2 -8.3 -2.4 .9 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 .3 1.1 4.3 5.0 6.7 -9.2 -3.7 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 .4 1.3 2.5 2.0 2.8 .6 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 .8 .7 .7 .6 2.0 1.3 .7 Previous Greenbook 2.5 1.9 3.2 .4 .9 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 2.0 1.3 1.0 ECI, hourly compensation 2 3.0 2.3 2.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.5 Previous Greenbook Ex. food & energy Previous Greenbook 2 Nonfarm business sector Output per hour 2.6 Previous Greenbook Compensation per hour Previous Greenbook 4.7 2.2 -.9 -1.1 2.4 1.3 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.1 .9 2.0 2.6 3.6 1.5 1.7 -3.2 .6 3.4 3.7 2.6 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.1 2.0 3.7 1.7 5.7 5.2 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.1 2.2 1.1 Previous Greenbook Core goods imports chain-wt price index 3 Previous Greenbook 3 3.8 .9 4.1 4.7 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 3.4 2.1 1.5 1.1 Unit labor costs -2.8 3.5 6.2 3.7 .3 .8 .3 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.7 1.9 1.3 -.8 1.2 -2.6 2.6 3.0 5.4 1.8 -1.3 -1.8 -.9 -.3 -.2 -.6 1.0 1.0 -.5 8.5 10.6 4.6 -8.3 -10.0 -4.7 -2.1 .4 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 3.6 -4.2 1.1 8.5 10.6 4.6 -9.0 -9.4 -3.0 -1.0 .8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 3.4 -3.2 1.3 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table 2. Private-industry workers. Return to table 3. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table Changes in Prices and Costs (Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted) Item GDP chain-wt. price index Previous Greenbook 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.6 .8 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.5 .9 PCE chain-wt. price index 1.8 Previous Greenbook 1.9 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 1.9 .4 .8 1.8 Previous Greenbook 3.3 1.9 3.5 1.7 .6 1.1 18.3 23.1 -4.0 19.1 -8.6 -11.3 4.5 7.6 18.3 23.1 -4.0 19.1 -9.8 -8.8 5.2 1.3 Food 3.1 7.6 7.7 Previous Greenbook 1.9 7.7 Energy 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.3 4.5 6.3 1.9 1.2 1.3 CPI 2.9 2.1 2.3 4.5 6.2 2.0 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.0 .5 1.6 Previous Greenbook 2.6 1.6 Ex. food & energy 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.0 .8 2.3 2.0 3.4 3.8 1.9 4.0 1.5 .3 1.1 2.3 2.0 3.4 3.8 1.9 4.0 1.5 .4 1.3 2.1 1.2 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.3 .7 Previous Greenbook 2.1 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.0 ECI, hourly compensation 1 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.5 Previous Greenbook Ex. food & energy Previous Greenbook 1 Nonfarm business sector Output per hour 2.9 Previous Greenbook 2.1 .9 2.0 2.7 2.4 1.1 2.0 5.3 3.9 3.6 4.2 3.6 4.1 2.2 1.1 5.3 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.6 3.4 2.1 1.5 .5 2.1 2.1 3.7 .9 1.9 1.3 -.8 .5 2.1 2.1 3.6 .9 1.0 1.0 -.5 .1 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.4 3.6 -4.2 1.1 .1 2 2.6 .6 .2 Core goods imports chain-wt. price index 2 .6 1.5 .2 Previous Greenbook 1.5 1.8 3.2 Previous Greenbook Unit labor costs 1.8 4.7 3.2 Compensation per hour 4.7 2.9 Previous Greenbook 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.4 3.4 -3.2 1.3 1. Private-industry workers. Return to table 2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil and natural gas. Return to table Other Macroeconomic Indicators 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 1 2010 1 Q4 Employment and production Nonfarm payroll employment 2 GDP gap Previous Greenbook -2.0 -1.4 -.4 -.3 -.3 .2 -.1 .2 -2.3 -4.1 .0 5.4 6.0 6.9 8.0 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 6.9 9.2 9.5 5.4 6.0 6.9 7.7 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.1 6.9 8.4 8.1 -.7 -1.4 -3.7 -5.7 -6.7 -7.3 -7.7 -8.0 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -3.7 -7.7 -8.2 -.7 -.6 -1.3 -3.2 -5.1 -5.9 -6.0 -6.0 -5.9 -5.9 -5.8 -5.5 -3.2 -6.0 -5.5 .4 -3.4 -8.9 -12.1 -18.3 -9.3 -2.6 -.2 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.5 -6.1 -7.9 3.1 .4 4 -1.3 4.9 4 -.5 4.9 Previous Greenbook 3 -.4 -.8 Unemployment rate -.1 3 -3.4 -8.9 -11.5 -13.8 -2.3 1.4 2.6 3.5 2.9 4.2 4.3 -6.0 -3.2 3.7 -1.0 -4.1 -8.7 -17.4 -21.7 -9.9 -2.0 .3 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.1 -8.0 -8.7 2.9 Industrial production 5 Previous Greenbook 5 Manufacturing industr. prod. 5 5 -1.0 -4.1 -8.8 -16.2 -17.3 -2.0 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.0 4.5 4.1 -7.7 -3.5 3.8 Capacity utilization rate - mfg. 3 78.7 77.5 75.5 71.7 67.4 65.8 65.6 65.8 66.6 67.5 68.3 69.2 71.7 65.8 69.2 Previous Greenbook 3 78.7 77.5 75.5 71.9 68.6 68.3 68.8 69.4 70.1 70.7 71.6 72.4 71.9 69.4 72.4 Previous Greenbook Housing starts 6 Light motor vehicle sales 6 1.1 1.0 .9 .7 .4 .4 .4 .5 .5 .6 .6 .6 .9 .4 .6 15.2 14.1 12.9 10.3 9.2 9.3 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.7 12.2 12.4 13.1 9.7 11.8 3.5 4.1 3.4 -6.3 -3.3 -1.1 .6 .8 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 1.1 -.8 2.3 Income and saving Nominal GDP 5 Real disposable pers. income5 -.7 10.7 -8.5 3.3 6.4 4.3 -1.6 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.0 2.6 1.4 -.7 10.7 -8.8 4.6 7.4 1.9 -.1 1.0 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.2 2.5 2.3 .2 2.5 1.3 3.2 4.6 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 3.2 5.4 5.0 .2 2.5 1.2 3.3 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 3.3 5.2 4.7 Corporate profits7 -4.3 -14.3 -4.7 -34.0 -26.4 -24.2 -6.5 -.8 5.2 8.1 6.3 6.4 -15.2 -15.2 6.5 Profit share of GNP 3 11.2 10.6 10.4 9.6 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.6 8.2 8.5 -331 -650 -544 -523 -852 -1,018 -1,083 -1,132 -1,184 -1,167 -1,213 -1,208 -512 -1,022 -1,193 -52 -67 -104 -71 -73 -52 -42 Previous Greenbook Personal saving rate 5 3 Previous Greenbook 3 Net federal saving8 Net state & local saving8 -34 -79 -47 -48 -43 -49 -39 -39 Gross national saving rate Net national saving rate 3 12.4 11.3 11.5 12.7 11.3 10.3 9.7 9.5 9.1 9.2 9.0 9.0 12.7 9.5 9.0 .0 -1.3 -1.8 -.3 -2.2 -3.6 -4.3 -4.7 -5.2 -5.1 -5.4 -5.4 -.3 -4.7 -5.4 3 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated. Return to table 2. Change, millions. Return to table 3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table 4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table 5. Percent change, annual rate. Return to table 6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages. Return to table 7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table 8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages. Return to table Other Macroeconomic Indicators (Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted) Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Employment and production Nonfarm payroll employment 1 -.7 -.1 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.2 -2.3 -4.1 .0 Unemployment rate2 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.9 9.2 9.5 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.9 8.4 8.1 -2.6 -1.8 -.8 -.3 -.2 -.4 -3.7 -7.7 -8.2 -2.5 -1.7 -.7 -.2 -.1 -.3 -3.2 -6.0 -5.5 2.6 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 -6.1 -7.9 3.1 2.6 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 -6.0 -3.2 3.7 2.6 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.1 2.3 -8.0 -8.7 2.9 2.6 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.1 2.3 -7.7 -3.5 3.8 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 79.3 71.7 65.8 69.2 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 79.3 71.9 69.4 72.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4 .9 .4 .6 16.7 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.5 16.1 13.1 9.7 11.8 3.6 5.9 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.9 1.1 -.8 2.3 2.9 3.7 4.1 .9 3.6 1.8 1.0 2.6 1.4 2.9 3.7 4.1 .9 3.6 1.8 1.2 2.5 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.5 .8 .9 .4 3.2 5.4 5.0 1.8 2.2 2.5 .8 .9 .4 3.3 5.2 4.7 Previous Greenbook 2 GDP gap 3 Previous Greenbook 3 Industrial production 4 Previous Greenbook 4 Manufacturing industr. prod. Previous Greenbook 4 Capacity utilization rate - mfg. Previous Greenbook 4 2 2 Housing starts 5 Light motor vehicle sales 5 Income and saving Nominal GDP 4 Real disposable pers. income Previous Greenbook 4 Personal saving rate 2 Previous Greenbook 2 4 Corporate profits6 20.6 Profit share of GNP 12.6 20.3 18.8 6.9 -2.0 -15.2 -15.2 6.5 9.0 2 9.5 10.8 12.0 12.2 11.3 9.6 8.2 8.5 Net federal saving 7 -248 Net state & local saving7 -372 -371 -292 -201 -229 -512 -1022 -1193 -34 -20 2 29 46 10 -73 -52 -42 Gross national saving rate2 Net national saving rate 2 13.6 13.7 13.8 15.0 15.5 13.4 12.7 9.5 9.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.8 3.4 1.2 -.3 -4.7 -5.4 1. Change, millions. Return to table 2. Percent, values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table 3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table 4. Percent change. Return to table 5. Level, millions, values are annual averages. Return to table 6. Percent change, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table 7. Billions of dollars, values are annual averages. Return to table Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items (Billions of dollars except as noted) Fiscal year Item 2007 a 2008 a 2009 2008 2010 Q1 a Q2 a 2009 Q3 a Q4 a Unified budget Receipts1 Outlays Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Not seasonally adjusted 2568 1 2524 2193 2259 540 788 590 547 457 648 541 524 516 658 560 553 2729 1 Surplus/deficit Q1 2010 2978 4108 3480 746 761 759 1033 977 1141 957 932 862 852 833 900 -162 -455 -1915 -1221 -206 27 -169 -485 -520 -494 -416 -408 -346 -194 -273 -348 Previous Greenbook -162 -455 -1791 -1033 -206 27 -169 -485 -553 -387 -365 -378 -314 -106 -234 -309 On-budget -343 -638 -2048 -1353 -237 -64 -171 -538 -529 -571 -411 -463 -351 -275 -264 -401 Off-budget 181 183 133 132 31 91 2 53 9 77 -5 56 5 80 -9 53 Borrowing 206 768 2062 1031 200 -48 526 561 467 560 475 188 336 219 288 338 Cash decrease -23 -296 112 210 11 -7 -318 5 142 -20 -15 225 15 -20 -10 15 Other 2 -22 -17 -258 -20 -5 29 -39 -81 -89 -46 -43 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 75 372 260 50 46 53 372 367 225 245 260 35 20 40 50 35 2412 2440 2445 2473 Means of financing Cash operating balance, end of period NIPA federal sector Seasonally adjusted annual rates Receipts 2624 2607 2445 Expenditures 2832 3047 3315 842 910 985 1053 898 918 954 957 971 569 624 674 707 614 629 660 656 662 346 284 289 295 301 309 314 322 332 345 354 352 351 2548 2105 2210 2186 2155 2297 2407 2459 2514 2545 2545 2591 2608 Consumption expenditures Defense 2428 2673 2479 2596 2590 2416 2383 2393 2413 3602 3003 3128 3140 3113 3269 3401 3476 3545 3596 3607 3657 3681 994 1017 1032 1051 1063 1067 1072 679 696 700 706 709 715 721 Nondefense 273 286 311 Other spending 1990 2136 2330 -209 -440 -869 -1174 -331 -650 -544 -523 -852 -1018 -1083 -1132 -1184 -1167 -1213 -1208 123 134 -221 -458 -898 -1203 -344 -671 -569 -552 -878 -1046 -1115 -1163 -1213 -1195 -1240 -1235 -222 -426 -647 -0.3 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.6 2.2 -1.0 -0.7 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 -0.3 Current account surplus Gross investment Gross saving less gross investment 3 152 158 129 138 144 149 148 153 157 158 158 158 160 161 Fiscal indicators 4 High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP -802 -322 -641 -502 -406 -653 -758 -770 -780 -820 -786 -821 -812 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Previous Greenbook 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law. Return to table 2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities. Return to table 3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises. Return to table 4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output and the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2000) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB, positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus. Return to table a--Actual Return to table Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors (Percent) Period 1 Households Total Business State and local governments Federal government Memo: Nominal GDP Total Home mortgages Consumer credit Year 2003 8.1 11.6 14.2 5.2 2.5 8.3 10.9 5.9 2004 8.9 11.2 13.6 5.5 2005 9.5 11.1 13.3 4.3 6.2 7.4 9.0 6.5 8.7 10.2 7.0 6.3 2006 8.9 10.0 10.9 4.5 10.5 8.2 3.9 5.3 2007 8.6 6.6 6.6 5.5 13.1 9.3 4.9 4.9 2008 5.8 .4 -.4 1.7 4.7 2.2 24.2 1.1 2009 5.1 -1.8 -2.0 -1.8 1.7 2.9 26.6 -.8 2010 4.4 .5 .1 1.9 2.0 3.0 14.7 2.3 2008: 1 5.2 3.0 2.4 4.7 7.2 3.5 8.1 3.5 2 3.1 .3 -.3 3.9 5.8 .9 5.9 4.1 3 8.1 .2 -2.3 1.5 4.1 3.1 39.2 3.4 4 6.3 -2.0 -1.6 -3.2 1.5 1.2 37.0 -6.3 Quarter 2009: 1 4.4 -2.6 -2.7 -3.0 2.9 1.2 23.3 -3.3 2 7.7 -2.2 -2.3 -2.6 .7 3.6 40.7 -1.1 3 5.5 -1.6 -1.8 -1.4 1.4 3.4 25.2 .6 4 2.3 -.8 -1.1 -.2 1.6 3.4 8.4 .8 2010: 1 3.6 .2 -.3 1.5 1.8 3.2 11.9 1.6 2 4.9 .6 .0 2.5 1.9 3.2 16.7 2.2 3 4.2 .7 .2 2.0 1.9 2.8 13.0 2.6 4 4.6 .7 .4 1.5 2.3 2.8 14.2 2.8 Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates. 1. Data after 2008:Q4 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from Q4 to Q4. Return to table 2.6.3 FOF Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights (Billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted) 2008 Category 2007 2008 2009 Q3 Domestic nonfinancial sectors 2009 2010 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Net funds raised Total 1668.8 1446.1 1519.1 1407.8 2233.9 1622.4 1290.4 2402.8 1727.1 656.1 1117.3 1610.9 1358.7 1544.3 Net equity issuance -831.2 -395.1 -175.0 -140.0 -393.2 -450.0 -180.0 -200.0 -160.0 -160.0 -140.0 -140.0 -140.0 -140.0 Net debt issuance 2500.0 1841.1 1694.1 1547.8 2627.0 2072.5 1470.4 2602.8 1887.1 816.1 1257.3 1750.9 1498.7 1684.3 Borrowing indicators Debt (percent of GDP)1 Borrowing (percent of GDP) 220.3 228.6 244.6 252.4 226.7 234.5 239.6 243.9 247.6 249.5 250.4 251.6 252.8 253.9 18.1 12.9 12.1 10.9 18.2 14.6 10.5 18.6 13.4 5.8 8.9 12.3 10.5 11.7 848.8 50.9 -244.9 73.0 28.6 -278.7 -352.9 -300.0 -216.9 -109.9 26.3 81.1 88.6 95.8 -46.2 -207.3 7.1 -241.3 -163.0 -284.3 -241.7 -189.5 -113.7 Households Net borrowing 2 Home mortgages 651.5 -28.4 0.0 19.0 37.9 Consumer credit 133.6 44.3 -45.7 47.6 38.4 -83.0 -76.6 -65.9 -35.3 -5.0 37.8 63.4 51.0 38.4 Debt/DPI (percent) 3 131.2 129.6 125.7 122.3 129.8 130.1 127.8 125.4 125.0 123.8 123.0 122.5 122.0 121.6 185.6 172.3 -35.2 -20.8 127.9 74.3 -31.1 -34.4 -34.7 -40.7 2.8 -25.4 -38.0 -22.6 Business Financing gap 4 Net equity issuance -831.2 -395.1 -175.0 -140.0 -393.2 -450.0 -180.0 -200.0 -160.0 -160.0 -140.0 -140.0 -140.0 -140.0 Credit market borrowing 1228.4 503.0 184.0 224.2 451.2 169.3 317.3 78.8 155.6 184.4 200.3 214.6 221.5 260.6 Net borrowing 185.7 48.0 66.0 69.7 68.7 26.7 26.7 81.7 77.7 77.7 73.7 73.7 65.7 65.7 Current surplus 5 246.6 167.0 165.1 180.0 153.1 144.8 181.3 137.1 170.6 171.2 177.4 172.9 183.8 185.9 State and local governments Federal government Net borrowing 237.1 1239.2 1689.0 1180.9 2078.5 2155.2 1479.2 2742.2 1870.8 663.9 957.0 1381.5 1122.8 1262.1 Net borrowing (n.s.a.) 237.1 1239.2 1689.0 1180.9 526.5 560.9 466.9 559.5 474.6 188.1 336.3 219.4 287.6 337.6 Unified deficit (n.s.a.) 187.9 833.2 1837.9 1160.9 168.9 485.2 520.0 493.6 416.3 408.0 346.3 194.4 272.6 347.6 858.7 507.6 549.5 503.4 -303.8 -42.3 322.1 378.0 184.3 391.5 417.5 285.3 Depository institutions Funds supplied 88.5 319.6 Note. Data after 2008:Q4 are staff projections. 1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP. Return to table 2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit. Return to table 3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income. Return to table 4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds. Return to table 5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers. Return to table n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted. Return to table 2.6.4 FOF † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts† International Developments Summary of Staff Projections (Percent change from end of previous period except as noted, annual rate) 2008 Projection Indicator H1 Foreign output 1.7 2009 2008: Q4 Q3 2010 Q1 Q2 .5 -7.2 -6.7 H2 -2.9 .3 2.3 Previous Greenbook 1.8 .7 -3.7 -2.7 -.7 1.5 2.8 Foreign consumer prices 5.0 4.3 -.7 -1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 Previous Greenbook 5.1 4.5 -1.1 -.8 1.3 1.7 2.0 Contribution to growth (percentage points) U.S. net exports 1.8 -.6 .1 .0 -.7 -.4 1.8 Previous Greenbook 1.1 1.1 -.1 1.2 -.1 -.8 -.5 Note: Change for year measured as Q4/Q4; half-years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Staff Projections of Selected Trade Prices (Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate, excepted as noted) 2008 Projection Trade category H1 2009 2008: Q4 Q3 Q1 2010 Q2 H2 Imports Core goods Previous Greenbook Oil (dollars per barrel) Previous Greenbook 9.5 4.6 -8.3 -10.0 -4.7 -.8 1.1 9.5 4.6 -9.0 -9.4 -3.0 -.1 1.3 108.65 117.49 68.74 41.46 43.09 44.79 50.51 108.65 117.49 68.52 45.55 44.56 48.60 54.82 Exports Core goods Previous Greenbook 13.0 6.6 -25.6 -10.9 -5.2 -.3 1.2 13.0 6.6 -19.0 -12.9 -2.9 .5 1.1 Note: Prices for core exports exclude computers and semiconductors. Prices for core imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Both prices are on a national income and product account chain-weighted basis. The price of imported oil for multi-quarter periods is the price for the final quarter of the period. Imported oil includes both crude oil and refined products. Staff Projections for Trade in Goods and Services (Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate) 2008 Projection Measure H1 Real imports -4.1 Q3 -3.5 2008: Q4 -16.0 2009 2010 Q1 -19.7 Q2 -4.7 H2 3.2 3.8 Previous Greenbook -4.1 -3.5 -15.4 -11.7 -1.9 5.8 5.4 8.6 3.0 -23.6 -23.6 -5.6 -2.3 1.0 8.6 3.0 -19.9 -5.1 -2.7 -.1 2.4 Real exports Previous Greenbook Note: Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4; half-years are measured as Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Alternative Scenario: Lower Foreign Demand (Percent change from previous period, annual rate, except as noted) 2009 2010 Indicator and simulation 2011 H1 H2 H1 2012-13 H2 U.S. real GDP Baseline -4.2 -.3 1.1 2.0 3.9 5.3 Lower Foreign Demand -4.3 -1.0 -.1 .7 3.1 5.4 U.S. PCE prices excluding food and energy Baseline 1.2 .8 .5 .4 .5 .7 Lower Foreign Demand 1.1 .5 .1 -.1 .1 .6 U.S. federal funds rate (percent) Baseline .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Lower Foreign Demand .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 U.S. trade balance (percent share of GDP) Baseline -3.0 -3.2 -3.5 -3.7 -3.8 -4.1 Lower Foreign Demand -3.1 -3.4 -3.8 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 Note: H1 is Q2/Q4; H2 is Q4/Q2. The federal funds rate is the average rate for the final quarter of the period. Evolution of the Staff Forecast Figure: Current Account Balance Line chart, by Percent of GDP, 2007 to March 12, 2009. There are 3 series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about -6.7 on January 24, 2007 and generally increases to end at about -4.9. 2009 begins at about -5.4 on September 12, 2007 and generally increases to about -4.3 by April 23, 2008. It then generally decreases to about -4.6 by June 18, 2008 and then generally increases to end at about -3.6. 2010 begins at about -3.5 on September 10, 2008 and generally decreases to end at about -4.0. Figure: Foreign Real GDP Line chart, by Percent, Q4/Q4, 2007 to March 12, 2009. There are 3 series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 3.5 on January 24, 2007 and then generally decreases to end at about -.9. 2009 begins at about 3.2 on September 12, 2007 and remains about constant until about September 10, 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -2.2. 2010 begins at about 3.5 on September 10, 2008 and generally decreases to end at about 2.2. Figure: Core Import Prices Line chart, by Percent, Q4/Q4, 2007 to March 12, 2009. There are 3 series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 1 on January 24, 2007 and generally increases to about 7 by August 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.5. 2009 begins at about 1 on September 12, 2008 and remains about constant until September 10, 2008. Then it generally decreases to end at about -4. 2010 begins at about 1.1 on September 10, 2008 and remains about constant to end at about 1.1. Note: Prices for merchandise imports excluding computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries (Percent changes) Projected Measure and country 2008 Q1 Q2 2009 Q3 Q4 REAL GDP 1 Total Foreign Advanced Foreign Economies Q1 Q2 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Quarterly changes at an annual rate 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.5 -7.2 -6.7 -2.9 -0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.9 -0.5 -0.3 -5.3 -7.0 -3.8 -0.8 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 -3.4 -6.1 -4.1 -0.5 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 of which: Canada -0.9 0.6 0.9 Japan 1.4 -4.5 -1.4 -12.1 -15.9 -4.4 -1.8 -0.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 United Kingdom 1.6 -0.1 -2.8 Euro Area 2 2.8 -1.0 -1.0 Germany 6.2 -2.0 -2.1 Emerging Market Economies Asia Korea China Latin America -6.0 -4.8 -2.9 -1.2 1.1 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.3 -5.7 -6.0 -4.1 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.6 -8.2 -6.5 -4.3 -1.1 -0.2 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 4.2 3.4 1.6 -9.7 -6.3 -1.6 0.5 1.7 2.5 3.4 3.9 4.3 6.8 3.8 0.9 -11.0 -4.3 -0.4 2.1 3.0 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.6 3.3 3.4 2.1 -20.8 -7.0 -4.7 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 5.8 6.8 7.6 8.2 8.4 8.9 -8.9 -3.2 -1.3 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.5 2.9 10.3 10.9 1.5 2.9 5.3 1.6 2.3 2.2 -9.2 4.8 Mexico 1.2 1.3 1.6 -10.3 -10.8 -3.7 -1.7 -0.1 0.4 1.8 2.7 3.2 Brazil 6.7 6.5 6.9 -13.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 CONSUMER PRICES 3 Total Foreign -4.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 Four-quarter changes 4.1 4.7 4.8 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 -0.7 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Canada 1.9 2.3 3.4 1.9 0.5 -0.2 -1.0 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Advanced Foreign Economies of which: Japan 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.0 United Kingdom 4 2.4 3.4 4.8 3.9 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 Euro Area 2 3.4 3.6 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 Germany 3.1 3.0 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 Emerging Market Economies Asia Korea China -0.2 -1.1 -2.0 -1.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 6.0 6.6 6.1 4.6 2.7 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 6.6 7.0 6.0 3.7 1.0 -0.4 -0.9 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 3.8 4.8 5.5 4.5 3.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.3 1.4 8.1 7.7 5.1 2.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.5 5.5 6.1 6.6 6.3 5.3 4.4 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 Mexico 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.1 5.1 4.1 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 Brazil 4.6 5.5 6.3 6.2 5.8 4.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Latin America -0.7 -1.7 -1.5 -0.7 1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table 2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table 3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table 4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries (Percent, Q4 to Q4) Projected Measure and country 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 REAL GDP 1 Total Foreign 3.1 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 -0.9 -2.3 2.3 Advanced Foreign Economies 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 -1.4 -2.9 1.4 Canada 3.5 1.5 3.7 3.0 2.2 2.8 -0.7 -2.7 1.4 Japan 2.1 2.4 1.1 2.9 2.2 2.1 -4.3 -5.8 0.9 United Kingdom 2.4 3.2 2.3 2.0 3.2 3.0 -1.9 -2.0 1.6 of which: Euro Area 2 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.4 2.1 -1.3 -2.8 1.4 Germany 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.6 4.1 1.7 -1.6 -3.1 1.2 3.9 4.6 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.3 -0.3 -1.5 3.5 Emerging Market Economies Asia 6.4 7.0 6.0 7.7 7.1 8.1 -0.1 0.1 4.9 Korea 7.7 4.1 2.9 5.6 4.2 5.9 -3.6 -2.2 3.5 China 8.6 10.3 9.9 10.3 10.8 12.3 6.9 4.9 8.3 Latin America 1.6 2.0 5.0 4.1 4.7 4.5 -0.8 -3.4 2.0 Mexico 2.0 1.5 4.5 3.6 4.0 3.7 -1.7 -4.2 2.0 Brazil 4.9 1.0 4.7 3.7 4.6 6.1 1.2 -1.3 2.0 CONSUMER PRICES 3 Total Foreign 2.5 Advanced Foreign Economies 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 3.6 3.3 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.0 0.1 0.9 of which: Canada 3.8 United Kingdom 4 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.4 2.5 1.9 0.1 1.2 -0.5 Japan -0.3 0.5 -1.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 -1.5 -0.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.1 3.9 0.5 1.6 2 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.9 2.3 0.8 1.2 Germany 1.2 1.1 2.1 2.2 1.3 3.1 1.7 0.5 1.1 Euro Area Emerging Market Economies 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.0 2.9 5.1 4.6 1.2 2.1 0.8 2.3 3.2 2.6 2.4 5.4 3.7 0.1 1.7 Korea 3.3 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.1 3.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 China -0.6 2.7 3.3 1.4 2.1 6.7 2.7 -0.7 1.2 6.4 4.9 5.6 3.7 4.1 4.3 6.6 3.5 3.1 5.2 3.9 5.3 3.1 4.1 3.8 6.2 3.2 2.7 10.7 11.5 7.2 6.1 3.2 4.3 6.2 3.9 3.7 Asia Latin America Mexico Brazil 1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table 2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table 3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table 4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table Outlook for U.S. International Transactions Projected 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4 Net Goods & Services -0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 -0.3 -0.4 Exports of G&S 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 -0.2 -1.1 0.1 Imports of G&S -1.3 -0.7 -1.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.2 0.8 -0.5 Percentage change, Q4/Q4 Exports of G&S Services 3.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 10.1 8.9 -1.8 -8.9 1.0 10.2 3.0 8.3 4.0 11.5 9.3 3.7 -8.0 1.6 Computers -1.1 11.3 5.8 14.2 Semiconductors 10.1 38.3 -6.0 0.6 4.9 8.0 Core Goods 1 8.1 0.9 -2.2 -3.3 9.5 17.6 2.9 29.3 -14.0 -15.8 11.1 7.4 10.0 8.2 -4.0 -9.3 -0.0 Imports of G&S 9.7 4.8 11.5 4.8 3.8 1.1 -7.1 -5.0 3.8 Services 8.8 2.2 9.3 -0.1 8.0 1.8 0.7 -0.6 1.8 Oil 3.8 1.2 10.8 1.0 -9.2 0.6 -1.1 -12.6 1.1 19.5 1.3 4.9 13.7 -12.6 12.1 -27.3 12.8 6.0 Natural Gas Computers 13.2 17.0 23.2 12.5 13.8 8.4 -11.5 -9.3 15.5 Semiconductors 11.0 -0.1 9.8 7.5 -0.3 3.8 -10.1 -12.4 5.0 Core Goods 2 10.0 5.2 11.4 5.9 5.7 0.1 -9.7 -5.1 4.2 Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars Net Goods & Services -471.3 -518.9 -593.8 -616.6 -615.7 -546.5 -392.3 -383.3 -445.0 Exports of G&S 1013.3 1026.1 1126.1 1205.3 1314.8 1425.9 1514.0 1339.0 1330.3 Imports of G&S 1484.6 1545.0 1719.9 1821.9 1930.5 1972.4 1906.3 1722.3 1775.3 Billions of dollars US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -461.3 -523.4 -625.0 -729.0 -788.1 -731.2 -684.2 -511.1 -574.9 Current Acct as Percent of GDP -4.4 -4.8 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.3 -4.8 -3.6 -4.0 Net Goods & Services (BOP) -423.7 -496.9 -607.7 -711.6 -753.3 -700.3 -677.1 -430.0 -515.3 Investment Income, Net 33.0 51.0 73.4 78.8 63.8 88.8 117.2 44.4 64.0 Direct, Net 102.4 112.7 150.9 173.2 184.1 233.9 249.5 157.5 182.5 Portfolio, Net -69.4 -61.7 -77.5 -94.4 -120.3 -145.1 -132.3 -113.1 -118.5 -70.5 -77.5 -90.6 -96.2 Other Income & Transfers,Net -98.6 -119.7 -124.3 -125.5 -123.6 1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table Outlook for U.S. International Transactions 2005 Q1 Q2 2006 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS Percentage point contribution to GDP growth Net Goods & Services 0.3 0.8 -0.1 -1.3 0.1 0.6 -0.1 1.3 -1.2 1.7 2.0 0.9 Exports of G&S 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.1 1.0 2.5 0.5 Imports of G&S -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -2.4 -1.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 0.7 -0.5 0.4 Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. Exports of G&S 8.1 8.8 0.4 10.9 16.7 5.5 3.5 15.6 0.6 8.8 23.0 4.4 Services 10.2 -2.8 3.2 5.7 13.4 2.7 3.2 28.6 -2.7 13.3 25.9 2.7 Computers 16.8 27.9 8.3 5.2 12.0 17.5 -7.9 12.7 3.9 -4.0 14.4 -9.2 Semiconductors -5.2 11.7 30.7 38.0 20.3 16.1 -5.6 -15.0 15.9 23.7 20.5 61.7 Core Goods 1 7.3 13.8 -2.9 12.4 18.3 5.6 4.8 11.8 1.3 6.6 22.1 3.7 Imports of G&S 3.2 0.6 0.8 15.3 10.3 0.1 3.1 2.0 7.7 -3.7 3.0 -2.3 -5.7 -0.0 -1.0 6.8 17.7 -2.0 -0.3 18.4 4.2 -2.0 6.3 -0.9 5.1 -27.1 -11.6 53.6 -2.8 -27.1 7.5 -10.6 30.9 -22.3 -13.5 16.5 Services Oil Natural Gas Computers Semiconductors Core Goods 2 58.6 -14.1 111.1 -41.9 -50.7 91.9 26.6 -51.2 70.8 74.2 28.2 -58.6 3.2 11.6 20.4 15.4 20.7 21.1 19.7 -4.3 34.9 -6.5 -0.2 9.7 -9.2 7.7 14.0 20.0 0.2 -0.5 17.7 -15.8 1.2 6.7 1.0 6.4 4.8 6.1 0.3 12.7 13.7 4.9 1.2 3.2 2.2 -1.1 5.8 -6.0 Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. Net Goods & Services -623.7 -601.3 -603.6 -637.8 -636.0 -619.4 -623.0 -584.2 -618.6 -571.2 -511.8 -484.5 Exports of G&S 1177.9 1203.1 1204.3 1235.7 1284.3 1301.4 1312.6 1361.1 1363.2 1392.2 1466.2 1482.1 Imports of G&S 1801.7 1804.4 1807.9 1873.6 1920.2 1920.9 1935.7 1945.3 1981.8 1963.4 1978.0 1966.5 Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -696.2 -711.3 -675.6 -832.9 -783.8 -799.6 -843.6 -725.4 -787.7 -776.4 -691.8 -669.0 Current Account as % of GDP -5.7 -5.8 -5.4 -6.6 -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 -5.4 -5.8 -5.7 -5.0 -4.8 Net Goods & Services (BOP) -664.0 -682.9 -721.4 -778.0 -756.4 -767.4 -789.9 -699.5 -718.2 -715.3 -672.5 -695.1 Investment Income, Net 88.6 77.8 88.7 59.9 65.2 70.7 51.7 67.7 57.8 45.8 98.9 152.6 Direct, Net 170.2 168.5 187.8 166.3 177.2 189.2 171.9 198.2 201.1 196.2 238.8 299.3 Portfolio, Net -81.6 -90.7 -99.0 -106.5 -112.0 -118.5 -120.3 -130.5 -143.2 -150.4 -139.9 -146.7 Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -120.9 -106.2 -42.9 -114.8 -92.6 -103.0 -105.4 -93.6 -127.4 -106.9 -118.3 -126.4 1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table Outlook for U.S. International Transactions Projected 2008 Q1 Q2 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS Percentage point contribution to GDP growth Net Goods & Services 0.8 2.9 1.1 -0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 Exports of G&S 0.6 1.5 0.4 -3.5 -3.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 Imports of G&S 0.1 1.4 0.7 3.0 3.3 0.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. Exports of G&S 5.1 12.3 3.0 -23.6 -23.6 -5.6 -3.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 1.5 2.1 Services 6.4 3.8 1.4 3.5 -14.5 -9.2 -5.1 -2.6 -0.8 1.0 2.6 3.7 Computers 0.4 57.4 5.4 -45.1 -13.2 -3.9 0.0 4.7 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 Semiconductors 4.6 -6.8 21.3 -53.7 -50.4 -4.0 -0.0 5.4 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 Core Goods 1 4.7 16.1 2.9 -32.2 -27.3 -3.6 -2.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.7 Imports of G&S -0.8 -7.3 -3.5 -16.0 -19.7 -4.7 1.0 5.5 6.0 0.2 2.5 6.6 5.5 -8.0 3.3 2.7 -5.9 1.6 1.8 0.3 4.8 -2.5 2.2 2.6 Services Oil 17.6 -38.1 -6.6 40.7 -15.2 -41.4 -14.3 37.3 17.7 -24.7 -14.7 38.3 -40.5 3.7 -38.0 -27.2 0.7 37.3 65.6 -29.2 31.5 20.5 17.5 -32.3 6.3 26.0 -13.1 -47.3 -34.4 -3.9 -0.0 7.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 Semiconductors -3.3 14.4 -4.5 -38.2 -40.2 -4.0 -0.0 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Core Goods 2 -6.4 2.4 -2.5 -29.0 -23.3 -0.3 2.4 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.1 Natural Gas Computers Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. Net Goods & Services -462.0 -381.3 -353.0 -372.8 -369.7 -368.7 -383.8 -411.1 -437.6 -436.4 -442.2 -463.8 Exports of G&S 1500.6 1544.7 1556.1 1454.8 1360.2 1340.7 1329.7 1325.4 1324.5 1326.6 1331.6 1338.6 Imports of G&S 1962.6 1926.0 1909.1 1827.6 1729.9 1709.4 1713.5 1736.5 1762.1 1763.0 1773.7 1802.4 Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -708.8 -730.0 -702.6 -595.3 -508.5 -495.1 -507.1 -533.9 -564.9 -561.4 -570.3 -602.9 Current Account as % of GDP -5.0 -5.1 -4.9 -4.2 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -3.8 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.2 Net Goods & Services (BOP) -714.6 -726.5 -712.3 -554.9 -416.6 -413.1 -428.0 -462.4 -499.9 -502.4 -513.9 -544.9 Investment Income, Net Direct, Net Portfolio, Net 140.0 119.8 130.5 78.5 41.7 40.8 43.8 51.4 57.9 63.8 66.5 67.9 281.0 259.5 261.2 196.5 159.0 153.2 154.1 163.6 172.1 179.6 186.3 192.3 -141.0 -139.7 -130.7 -118.0 -117.2 -112.4 -110.4 -112.2 -114.2 -115.8 -119.8 -124.4 Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -134.2 -123.2 -120.8 -118.9 -133.6 -122.8 -122.8 -122.8 -122.8 -122.8 -122.8 -125.8 1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts† Domestic Nonfinancial Developments Changes in Employment (Thousands of employees; seasonally adjusted) 2008 2009 2008 Measure and sector Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec. Average monthly change Nonfarm payroll employment (establishment survey) Jan. Feb. Monthly change Natural resources and mining Manufacturing -257 -153 -208 -553 -681 -655 -651 -270 Private -180 -212 -552 -670 -686 -660 4 5 8 -2 -4 -4 -4 -73 -61 -140 -180 -257 -168 -38 -43 -121 -152 -188 -167 -57 Construction -46 -58 Ex. motor vehicles -56 -34 -97 -98 -118 -104 Residential -35 -32 -21 -51 -50 -57 -51 Nonresidential -22 -25 -12 -45 -48 -61 -53 Wholesale trade -16 -10 -12 -32 -40 -31 -37 Retail trade -44 -34 -42 -80 -88 -39 -40 Financial activities -19 -14 -16 -35 -33 -52 -44 Temporary help services -44 -34 -40 -70 -73 -80 -78 19 35 16 -19 -36 2 -21 Nonbusiness services 1 Total government 14 Total employment (household survey) 27 4 -1 -11 31 9 -246 -95 -236 -564 -806 -1239 -351 -3.3 -2.3 -2.8 -7.4 -.9 -.6 -.7 33.6 33.7 33.6 33.4 33.3 33.3 33.3 40.8 40.9 40.8 40.2 39.9 39.8 39.6 Memo: Aggregate hours of private production workers (percent change) 2 Average workweek (hours) 3 Manufacturing (hours) 1. Nonbusiness services comprises education and health, leisure and hospitality, and "other." Return to table 2. Establishment survey. Annual data are percent changes from Q4 to Q4. Quarterly data are percent changes from preceding quarter at an annual rate. Monthly data are percent changes from preceding month. Return to table 3. Establishment survey. Return to table Figure: Changes in Private Payroll Employment Line chart, by thousands, 1999 to February 2009. Data are 3-month moving average. The series begins at about 200 and generally decreases to about -300 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 300 by 2004, and then generally decreases to end at about -700. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Aggregate Hours and Workweek of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers Line chart, 1999 to February 2009. There are two series, "Aggregate hours", an index where 2002=100, and "Workweek", which is by hours. These two series use two different scales. Aggregate hours begins at about 100.5 and generally increases to about 104 by the end of 2000. It then generally decreases to about 98.1 by mid-2003, generally increases to about 107.8, and generally decreases to end at about 102. Workweek begins at about 34.4 and generally decreases to about 33.6 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 34.1 by the end of 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 33.3. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Selected Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates (Percent; seasonally adjusted) 2008 Rate and group 2009 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec. Jan. Feb. Civilian unemployment rate Total 5.8 5.4 6.0 6.9 7.2 7.6 8.1 Teenagers 18.7 17.7 19.7 20.7 20.8 20.8 21.6 20-24 years old 10.2 9.8 10.6 11.3 12.1 12.1 12.9 Men, 25 years and older 4.8 4.2 5.1 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.5 Women, 25 years and older 4.4 4.1 4.5 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.2 66.0 66.1 66.1 65.9 65.7 65.5 65.6 Teenagers 40.2 41.3 40.3 38.7 38.3 38.3 38.7 20-24 years old 74.4 74.6 74.8 74.1 74.3 72.8 74.0 Men, 25 years and older 75.4 75.3 75.6 75.2 74.9 74.7 74.7 Women, 25 years and older 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.1 60.1 60.1 60.0 Labor force participation rate Total Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate Line chart, 1972 to February 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Participation rate", which is by percent, and "Unemployment rate", which is by percent. These two series use two different scales. Participation rate begins at about 60.4 and generally increases to about 66.7 by 1990. It then fluctuates but remains about constant to end at about 65.6. It is at about 65.8 at the time of the NBER peak. Unemployment rate begins at about 5.8 and generally increases to about 9 by 1975. It then generally decreases to about 5.8 by 1979, and generally increases to about 10.9 by the beginning of 1983. It then generally decreases to about 4 by 2000, and generally increases to end at about 8. It is at about 5 at the time of the NBER peak. Note: There are 5 shaded bars within the chart, one located from late 1973 to early 1975, the next from early 1980 to mid-1980, from mid-1981 to late 1982, from the end of 1990 to mid-1991, and the last from beginning 2001 to the end of 2001.The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Persons Working Part Time for Economic Reasons Line chart, by percent of household employment, 2000 to February 2009. The series begins at about 2.4 and generally increases to about 3.6 by mid-2003. It then generally decreases to about 2.7 by early 2006, and then generally increases to end at about 6.0. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Job Losers Unemployed Less Than 5 Weeks Line chart, by percent of household employment, 2000 to February 2009. There are two series, "Job Losers Unemployed Less Than 5 Weeks", and the "3-month moving average" of that series. The two series track very closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 0.8. They then generally increase to about 1.3 by the end of 2001. They then generally decrease to about 0.75 by 2007. Then then generally increase to about 1.6 by 2009 and then generally decrease to end at about 1.4. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Market Indicators Figure: Unemployment Insurance Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Insured unemployment", which is by millions, and "Initial claims", which is by thousands. These two series use two different scales. Insured unemployment begins at about 2.3 and generally increases to about 3.6 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2007 and then generally increases to end at about 5.1 by February 28. Initial claims begins at about 340 and generally decreases to about 260 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 490 by late 2001, and then generally decreases to about 260 by early 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 650 by March 7. Note: 4-week moving averages. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. Figure: Layoffs and Job Cuts Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Layoffs and discharges", which is by percent of private employment, and "Announced job cuts", which is by thousands. These two series use two different scales. Layoffs and discharges begins at about 1.6 by the beginning of 2001 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 1.0 by 2006. It then fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 2.2 by January. Announced job cuts begins at about 51 and generally decreases to about 10 by late 1999. It then generally increases to about 240 by the end of 2001. It then generally decreases to about 49 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about 175 by February. Note: Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Source: For layoffs and discharges, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for job cuts, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, Inc. Figure: Hiring Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "JOLTS hiring rate", which is by percent of employment, and "NFIB net hiring plans", which is by percent and is a 3-month moving average. These two series use two different scales. JOLTS hiring rate begins at about 4.5 in late 2000, and generally increases to about 4.9 by the beginning of 2001. It then generally decreases to about 3.9 by 2003 and then generally increases to about 4.6 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.6 by January. NFIB net hiring plans begins at about 16 and generally decreases to about 6 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 16 by early 2004, and remains about constant until mid-2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -5 by February. Note: NFIB is the percent planning an increase in employment minus the percent planning a reduction. Source: National Federation and Independent Business (NFIB); Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Figure: Job Openings Line chart, by percent of private employment plus job openings, 1999 to 2009. Data are index values, 1980=100. There are two series, "Job openings" and "Composite Help Wanted Index". These two series use two different scales. Job openings begins at about 4.0 in 2001, and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 3.5 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 2.0 by January. Composite Help Wanted Index begins at about 91 and generally decreases to about 52 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 70 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 45 by February. Note: Composite Help Wanted Index is an index of staff composite help wanted advertising as a percent of payroll employment. Source: For job openings, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for Help Wanted Index, Conference Board and staff calculations. Figure: Job Availability and Hard-To-Fill Positions Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Job availability", which is an index, and "Hard-to-fill", which is by percent. These two series use two different scales. Job availability begins at about 131 and generally decreases to about 75 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 110 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 52 by February. Hard-to-fill begins at about 30 and generally increases to about 34 by 2000, then decreases to about 16 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 26 by 2006, and then generally decreases to about 11. Note: Job availability is proportion of households believing jobs are plentiful, minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get, plus 100. Hard-to-fill is the percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one "hard-to-fill" job opening; seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Source: For job availability, Conference Board; for hard-to-fill, National Federation of Independent Business. Figure: Expected Labor Market Conditions Line chart, an index, 1999 to February 2009. There are two series, "Conference Board", and "Reuters/Michigan". Conference Board begins at about 100 and fluctuate but remains about constant until mid-2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 60. Reuters/Michigan begins at about 90 and generally decreases to about 50 by the end of 2001. It then generally increases to about 106 by mid-2004, and generally decreases end at about 44. Note: The proportion of households expecting labor market conditions to improve, minus the proportion expecting conditions to worse, plus 100. Source: Conference Board; Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Output per Hour (Percent change from preceding period at an annual rate; seasonally adjusted) Sector 2006:Q4 to 2007:Q4 2007:Q4 to 2008:Q4 2.6 2.1 1 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nonfarm business All persons 2.6 4.7 2.2 -.9 1 All employees 2 Nonfinancial corporations 3 2.0 1.5 1 2.3 4.9 1.6 -2.7 1 1.9 n.a. -.4 8.5 6.4 n.a. 1. Staff estimates. Return to table 2. Assumes that the growth rate of hours of non-employees equals the growth rate of hours of employees. Return to table 3. All corporations doing business in the United States except banks, stock and commodity brokers, and finance and insurance companies. The sector accounts for about two-thirds of business employment. Nonfinancial corporate output is calculated as an income-side measure. Return to table n.a. Not available. Return to table Source: For output, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for hours, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Selected Components of Industrial Production (Percent change from preceding comparable period) Component Proportion 2008 (percent) 2008 2008 1 Q3 2008 Q4 Nov. Annual rate 2009 Dec. Jan. Monthly rate Total 100.0 -6.1 -8.9 -12.1 -1.2 -2.4 -1.8 Previous 100.0 -6.0 -8.9 -11.5 -1.3 -2.0 … 77.4 -8.0 -8.7 -17.4 -2.2 -2.9 -2.5 73.1 -7.0 -8.7 -16.1 -2.2 -2.6 -1.4 69.1 -7.4 -9.1 -14.9 -2.0 -2.4 -1.4 Mining 12.9 1.0 -7.9 6.9 2.5 -1.0 -1.3 Utilities 9.7 .2 -11.6 10.3 2.0 -.2 2.7 Manufacturing Ex. motor veh. and parts Ex. high-tech industries Selected industries Energy 27.2 1.1 -11.6 12.2 1.5 -.3 .4 4.0 -2.1 -2.3 -33.6 -6.1 -6.2 -3.2 High technology Computers .9 -11.2 -22.3 -42.0 -5.2 -6.1 -3.6 Communications equipment 1.3 4.6 -9.1 -2.0 .1 -1.2 1.5 Semiconductors 2 1.8 -2.6 14.0 -46.5 -10.8 -10.1 -7.1 Motor vehicles and parts 4.3 -22.9 -7.8 -37.3 -2.2 -8.1 -23.4 2.2 -13.3 -26.9 -24.5 16.0 20.5 -3.1 Total ex. selected industries 62.2 -7.8 -7.5 -17.3 -2.4 -3.4 -1.4 Consumer goods 19.5 -3.9 -4.0 -8.1 -.9 -2.1 -.7 3.3 -15.2 -12.4 -28.6 -4.0 -3.5 -2.4 16.2 -1.4 -2.2 -3.4 -.3 -1.8 -.4 Aircraft and parts Durables Nondurables Business equipment 6.3 -5.4 -1.1 -15.2 -1.3 -1.8 -2.3 Defense and space equipment 1.2 -3.1 -7.1 -3.1 -.8 -1.0 1.7 Construction supplies 3.9 -11.3 -4.1 -26.3 -4.0 -4.1 -3.4 Business supplies 7.2 -8.7 -8.7 -16.6 -2.1 -3.2 -1.6 Materials 24.1 -11.0 -12.0 -24.1 -3.9 -5.1 -1.6 Durables 12.5 Nondurables 11.7 -10.8 -6.9 -29.2 -4.0 -5.5 -2.8 -11.3 -17.1 -18.2 -3.8 -4.7 -.3 1. From fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of year shown. Return to table 2. Includes related electronic components. Return to table … Not applicable. Return to table Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." Capacity Utilization (Percent of capacity) Sector Total industry 19722008 average 199495 high 200102 low 2008 Q2 Q3 2009 Q4 Dec. Jan. 80.9 85.1 73.6 79.7 77.6 74.9 73.3 72.0 Manufacturing 79.6 84.6 71.5 77.5 75.5 71.7 69.7 68.0 Mining 87.6 88.7 84.8 90.8 88.8 90.1 90.2 88.9 Utilities 86.8 93.9 84.6 85.6 82.6 84.2 84.5 86.7 Stage-of-process groups Crude 86.7 89.5 81.9 89.2 86.3 85.8 84.7 83.9 Primary and semifinished 82.1 88.2 74.6 79.8 77.4 74.0 71.6 70.4 Finished 77.6 80.4 69.9 76.0 74.5 71.7 70.9 69.3 Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." Indicators of Industrial Activity Figure: Weekly Production Index excluding Motor Vehicles and Electricity Generation Line chart and bar chart, an index, February 2006 to February 2009. There are two series, "Monthly aggregate of weekly index", which is the bar chart, and "Weekly index", which is the line chart. They track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 9.5 and remain about constant until July 2008. They generally decrease to about 6.9 (Weekly index) and 7.6 (Monthly aggregate) by December 2008, and generally increase to end at about 8.0. In August 2008 there is a 1-month decrease to about 6.5 (Weekly index) and 7.25 (Monthly aggregate). Note: One index point equals 1 percent of 2002 total industrial output. Source: Federal Reserve, G. 17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." Figure: IP Diffusion Index Line chart, an index, 1975 to January 2009. The series begins at about 18, and generally increases to about 70 by late 1975. It then fluctuates between about 20 and 80 until late 2008 when it is at about 50. It then decreases to end at about 20. Note: Industrial production (IP) diffusion index is calculated on the basis of 3-month changes. Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." Figure: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Line chart, by percent, 1972 to January 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 80 and generally increases to about 88 by 1974, then generally decreases to about 69 by the beginning of 1983. It then generally increases to about 85 by 1988, and then generally decreases to about 72 by 2001. It then increases to about 80 by 2007 and decreases to end at about 68. It is at about 80 at the time of the NBER peak. Note: Horizontal line is 1972-2008 average. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). There are 5 shaded regions, one from the beginning of 1974 to the beginning of 1975, another from the beginning of 1980 to mid-1980, from the end of 1981 to the end of 1982, from the end of 1989 to mid-1990, and from the beginning of 2000 to the end of 2000. The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: Federal Reserve Figure: ISM Diffusion Index and Average of Regional New Orders Diffusion Indexes Line chart, by diffusion index, 2002 to February 2009. There are two series, "ISM", and "Regional average". They track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 55 and generally decrease to about 45 by 2003. They then generally increase until ISM is at about 70 by 2004, and Regional average is at about 65 by 2004. They continue to track closely together after 2004, generally decreasing to end at about 30. Note: Regional average consists of new orders indexes from the Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond surveys. Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM); Federal Reserve. Figure: Foreign Industrial Production Line chart, 2002 to December 2008. 2002=100. The series begins at about 98 and generally increases to about 119 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 109. Note: The foreign IP index is a fixed-weighted average of IP indexes from Canada, Mexico, Japan, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Taiwan, and Italy. Source: Staff calculation based on IP indexes reported by the included countries. Figure: Change in Real Adjusted Durable Goods Orders Line chart, by percent, 1975 to January 2009. The series begins at about -4.5 and generally increases to about 4 by 1978. It then fluctuates between about 4 and 4, except that in 1980 it reaches -6 and in 2008 it reaches -5. It ends at about -3. Note: The measure for real adjusted durable goods orders (RADGO) is a 3-month moving average. Source: Staff calculation based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Production of Domestic Light Vehicles (Millions of units at an annual rate except as noted) 2008 2009 2008 2009 Item Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. 8.5 7.2 4.6 6.1 6.4 3.7 4.5 5.5 Autos 4.2 3.4 1.7 2.7 2.9 1.3 1.6 2.4 Light trucks 4.3 3.8 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.4 2.9 3.2 Days' supply2 76 98 n.a. n.a. 98 99 101 n.a. Autos 67 98 n.a. n.a. 96 108 101 n.a. Light trucks 84 99 n.a. n.a. 99 92 101 n.a. 2.40 2.47 n.a. n.a. 2.47 2.22 2.08 n.a. Autos 0.96 1.14 n.a. n.a. 1.14 1.02 0.94 n.a. Light trucks 1.44 1.33 n.a. n.a. 1.33 1.19 1.14 n.a. 8.8 7.4 4.8 6.3 6.6 3.8 4.8 5.8 U.S. production Inventories3 Memo: U.S. production, total motor vehicles 4 Note: FRB seasonals. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. n.a. Not available. 1. Production rates for March and the first and second quarters of 2009 reflect the latest industry schedules. Return to table 2. Quarterly values are calculated with end-of-period stocks and average reported sales. Return to table 3. End-of-period stocks. Return to table 4. Includes medium and heavy trucks. Return to table Source: Ward's Communications. Figure: Inventories of Light Vehicles Line chart, by millions of units, 1998 to February 2009. The series begins at about 2.85 and generally decreases to about 2.50 by 1998. It then generally increases to about 3.26 by the end of 2000, and generally decreases to about 2.48 by the end of 2001. It then generally increases to about 3.40 by mid-2004, and generally decreases to end at about 2.05. Source: Ward's Communications. Adjusted using FRB seasonals. Figure: Days' Supply of Light Vehicles Line chart, by days, 1998 to February 2009. There are two series, "Using sales in current month", and "Using 3-month moving average of sales". The two series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 70 and fluctuate but remain about constant until mid-2001. They then generally decrease to about 42 by the end of 2001. They then generally increase to about 81 by mid-2004, generally decrease to about 45 by mid-2005 and then generally increase to end at about 100. Source: Constructed from Ward's Communications data. Adjusted using FRB seasonals. Indicators of High-Tech Manufacturing Activity Figure: Rate of Change in Semiconductor Industrial Production Line chart, by percent, 2002 to January 2009. There are two series, "MPUs" and "Non-MPUs". MPUs begins at about 5 and Non-MPUs begins at about 0. Once started, they track closely together throughout the chart and remain about constant until they reach about 1 by mid-2008. MPUs generally decreases to end at about -18 and Non-MPUs generally decreases to end at about -10. Note: MPU is a microprocessor unit. Figure: U.S. Personal Computer and Server Absorption Line chart, by millions of units, ratio scale, 2002 to 2009. There are two series, "Servers", and "PCs". These two series use two different scales. Servers begins at about 0.44 and generally increases to about 0.77 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.64. PCs begins at about 11.3 and generally increase to end at about 16.0. 2009:Q1 is marked at about 15.0. Note: FRB seasonals. The Q1 value for PCs is a forecast produced by International Data Corporation (IDC). Source: IDC. Figure: Circuit Board Orders and Shipments Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2002 to January 2009. There are two series, "Orders" and "Shipments". They begin at about 121 and generally decrease to about 95 by 2003. Orders fluctuates but generally increases to about 175 by the end of 2005 and then generally decreases to end at about 105. Shipments generally increases to about 145 by 2006 and then generally decreases to end at about 115. Note: U.S and Canadian shipments of bare and loaded circuit boards. Source: Institute for Printed Circuits Figure: FRB Chip Inventory Index Line chart, 2002 to 2008:Q4. 2006=100. The series begins at about 119 and generally increases to about 135 by mid-2002, then decreases to about 95 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 135 by 2007, and then generally decreases to about 110 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 130. Note: The staff's chip inventory index is a sales-weighted chain-type index constructed from financial data for 10 major chip manufacturers. Source: Financial reports. Figure: Cisco Revenue and U.S. Sales of High-End Data Networking Equipment Line chart, 2002 to 2009. 2006=100. There are two series, "U.S. sales", and "Cisco". U.S. begins at about 75 and generally increases to about 108 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 100 by 2006, and generally increases to end at about 110. Cisco begins at about 65 and generally increases to about 135 by mid-2008. . It then generally decreases to end at about 125. 2009:Q1 is marked at about 110. Note: FRB seasonals. Q1 Cisco revenue is the midpoint of the company's guidance as of February 4. Source: Synergy Research Group and Cisco Systems. Figure: Capital Expenditures by Selected Telecommunications Service Providers Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2002 to 2008:Q4. There are two series, "Verizon" and "AT&T". Verizon begins at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 3 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 4.3 by mid-2005. It then generally decreases to about 3.0 by the end of 2005, and then generally increases to about 4.4 by early 2006, and then remains about constant to end at about 4.3. AT&T begins at about 6.2 and generally decreases to about 3.4 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 5.5 by early 2006, then generally decreases to about 4.0 by early 2007. It then increases to about 5.2 by mid-2008 and decreases to end at about 4.5. Source: Filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Sales of Light Vehicles (Millions of units at an annual rate; FRB seasonals) 2008 Category 2009 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 13.1 14.1 12.9 10.3 10.3 9.5 9.1 Autos 6.7 7.6 6.6 5.2 5.2 4.6 4.6 Light trucks 6.4 6.5 6.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.5 Total Dec. Jan. Feb. North American 1 9.8 10.3 9.7 7.7 7.8 6.9 6.3 Autos 4.5 5.0 4.4 3.6 3.6 2.9 2.9 Light trucks 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 Autos 2.2 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 Light trucks 1.1 1.1 1.0 .9 .9 1.0 1.0 47.6 45.9 46.7 47.5 48.9 43.1 43.3 Foreign-produced Memo: Detroit Three domestic market share (percent) 2 Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Excludes some vehicles produced in Canada that are classified as imports by the industry. Return to table 2. Domestic market share excludes sales of foreign brands affiliated with the Detroit Three. Return to table Source: Ward's Communications. Adjusted using FRB seasonals. [Content redacted.] [Content redacted.] Figure: Car-Buying Attitudes Line chart, 2002 to February 2009. There are two series, "Appraisal of car-buying conditions", which is an index, and "Rates are high/credit is tight", which is by percent. Appraisal of car-buying conditions begins at about 158 and generally decreases to about 90 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to end at about 130. Rates are high/credit is tight begins at about 1 and fluctuates but generally remains about constant until late 2008. It then increases to about 18 by the end of 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 5. Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Figure: Average Value of Incentives on Light Vehicles Line chart, by current dollars per vehicle, ratio scale, 2002 to March 2009. The series begins at about 1200 and generally increases to about 2800 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1200 by mid-2007, and then generally increases to end at about 2100. Note: Seasonally adjusted weighted average of customer cash rebate and the present value of interest rate reduction. March figure is based on data through March 8. Source: J.D. Power and Associates. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Percent change from preceding comparable period) 2008 Category 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Dec. Jan. Annual rate Feb. Monthly rate 1 .2 -3.8 -4.3 -.5 .5 n.a. Motor vehicles -13.3 -26.6 -38.0 .6 -.9 -3.3 -.2 -7.4 -10.1 -1.7 1.2 .3 .3 -6.5 -12.3 -1.7 1.1 .2 1.5 -.1 1.4 .1 .3 n.a. Total real PCE Goods ex. motor vehicles Ex. energy Services Ex. energy 1.6 .9 1.0 .1 .0 n.a. 3.4 .4 -22.6 -3.3 1.8 .8 Memo: Nominal retail control 2 1. The values for Q4 and December, January, and February are staff estimates based on available data. Return to table 2. Total sales less outlays at building material and supply stores and automobile and other motor vehicle dealers. Return to table n.a. Not available. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: Change in Real PCE Goods Line chart, by percent, 1990 to February 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. The series "6-month moving average" begins at about -.25 and generally increases to about 0.2 by 1991. It then fluctuates but remains about constant until 2007. It then generally decreases to about -1.0 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about -0.6. It is at about -0.0 at the time of the NBER peak. There is a second line chart, by percent, 2006 to February 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". The Monthly series begins at about 1.6 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about -22 by the end of 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 0.0. 6-month moving average begins at about 0.2 and generally decreases to end at about -0.6. Note: There are two shaded bars, one from about mid-1990 to early 1991, and the other from about early 2001 to late 2001. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: Change in Real PCE Services Line chart, by percent, 1990 to January 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. The series "6-month moving average", begins at about 0.390 and fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about 0.1. It is at about 0.2 at the time of the NBER peak. There is a second line chart, by percent, 2006 to January 2009. There are two series, "6 -month moving average" and "Monthly". The Monthly series begins at about -0.62 and generally increases to about 0.99 by 2006. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about 0.2. The 6-month moving average begins at about 0.1 generally increases to about 0.4 by early 2007, then generally decreases to end at about 0.1. Note: There are two shaded bars, one from about mid-1990 to early 1991, and the other from about early 2001 to late 2001. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Fundamentals of Household Spending Figure: Change in Real Disposable Personal Income Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to January 2009. The series begins at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about 1.9 by the end of 1999. It then generally increases to about 6 by then end of 2000. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -1.6 by 2004, and generally increases to about 6 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about -0.1 by the end of 2007, and then generally increases to end at about 3.2. Note: Values for December 2004 and December 2005 exclude the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: Personal Saving Rate Line chart, by percent, 1999 to January 2009. The series begins at about 4 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by late 1999. It then generally increases to about 4.1 by late 2001. It then generally decreases to about -2.8 by late 2004, and then generally increases to about 4.5 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 1 by late 2007, and generally increases to end at about 5. Note: The value for December 2004 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in that month. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: Household Net Worth and Wilshire 5000 Line chart, 1999 to 2008:Q4. There are two series, "Ratio of household net worth to DPI", which is by ratio, and "Wilshire 5000", which is an index. These two series use two different scales. Ratio of household net worth to DPI begins at about 5.7 and generally decreases to about 5.0 by the end of 2001. It then generally increases to about 6.4 by 2006, and then generally decreases to end at about 4.9. Wilshire 5000 begins at about 11500 and generally increases to about 14100 by the end of 1999. It then generally decreases to about 7700 by the end of 2001. It then generally increases to about 15400 by the end of 2006, and then generally decreases to end at about 7600 by March 11. Note: The value for 2004:Q4 for Ratio of household net worth to DPI excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004. Source: Federal Reserve Board; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Wall Street Journal. Figure: Target Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield Line chart, by percent, 1999 to March 11, 2009. There are two series, "Treasury yield" and "Federal funds rate". Treasury yield begins at about 4.8 and generally increases to about 6.8 by the beginning of 1999. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 3.5 by 2003, and generally increases to about 5.1 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 3. Federal funds rate begins at about 4.8 and generally increases to about 6.5 by the beginning of 2000. It then generally decreases to about 1 by 2003, generally increases to about 5.2 by mid-2006, and then generally decreases to end at about 0.1. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Consumer Confidence Line chart, 1990 to February 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Conference Board", which is by 1985=100, and "Reuters/Michigan", which is by 1966=100. Conference Board begins 109 and generally decreases to about 50 by early 1992. It then generally increases to about 145 by early 2000, and generally decreases to about 60 by early 2003. It then generally increases to about 110 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to end at about 28. It is at about 90 at the time of the NBER peak. Reuters/Michigan begins at about 93 and generally decreases to about 65 by late 1990. It then generally increases to about 110 by early 2000, and then generally decreases to about 75 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about 97 by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 57. It is at about 75 at the time of the NBER peak. Note: There are two shaded bars from mid-1990 to the beginning of 1991, and the other one in early 2001 to late 2001. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Conference Board. Private Housing Activity (Millions of units, seasonally adjusted; annual rate except as noted) 2008 Sector 2009 2008 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. All units Starts .91 .88 .66 .66 .56 .47 Permits .89 .87 .63 .62 .55 .53 Single-family units Starts .62 .60 .46 .46 .40 .35 Permits .57 .56 .42 .41 .36 .34 .58 .57 .43 .42 .37 .35 .067 .081 .067 .070 .067 .062 .48 .46 .38 .38 .34 .31 Adjusted permits 1 Permit backlog 2 New homes Sales Months' supply3 10.75 10.64 11.74 11.65 12.31 13.28 Existing homes Sales 4.35 4.43 4.23 4.06 4.25 4.05 9.98 9.55 9.80 10.32 9.69 9.98 Starts .284 .273 .199 .199 .165 .119 Permits .323 .308 .215 .201 .183 .195 Permit backlog 2 .054 .062 .054 .057 .054 .055 .082 .080 .067 .066 .064 .054 .563 .573 .506 .481 .490 .440 Months' supply 3 Multifamily units Mobile homes Shipments Condos and co-ops Existing home sales 1. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas. Return to table 2. Number outstanding at end of period. Excludes permits that have expired or have been canceled, abandoned, or revoked. Not at an annual rate. Return to table 3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of monthly figures. Return to table Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Private Housing Starts and Permits Line chart, by millions of units (seasonally adjusted annual rate), 1999 to January 2009. There are three series, "Single-family starts", "Single-family adjusted permits" and "Multifamily starts". There are two different scales, "Single-family starts and Single-family adjusted permits" share one scale and "Multifamily starts" uses the other. Single-family starts and Single-family adjusted permits track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 1.3 and generally decrease to about 1.15 by mid-2000. They then generally increase to about 1.8 by early 2006. They then generally decrease to end at about .38. Multifamily starts begins at about .4 and generally increases to about .5 by early 2000. It then generally fluctuates throughout the chart but generally decreases to end at about .1. Note: Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas. Source: Census Bureau. Indicators of Single-Family Housing Figure: New Single-Family Home Sales Line chart, by millions of units (annual rate), 2001 to 2009. There are two series, "Total" and "Large homebuilders". These two series use two different scales. Total begins at about 0.98 and generally increases to about 1.4 by mid-2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.3 by January. Large Homebuilders begins at about 0.23 and generally increases to about 0.42 by mid-2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.1 by February. Source: For total, Census Bureau; for large homebuilders, National Association of Home Builders. Figure: Existing Single-Family Home Sales Line chart, 2001 to January 2009. There are two series, "Pending home sales", which is an index (2001=100), and "Existing home sales", which is by millions of units (annual rate). These two series use two different scales. Pending home sales begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 90 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 128 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 80. Existing home sales begins at about 4.5 and generally increases to about 6.4 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 4.1. Source: National Association of Realtors. [Content redacted.] Figure: Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply Line chart, 2001 to January 2009. There are two series, "Inventories of new homes", which is by thousands of units, and "Months' supply", which is by months. These two series use two different scales. Inventories of new homes begins at about 300 and generally increases to about 570 by mid-2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 350. Months' supply begins at about 4 and remains about constant until mid-2005 before generally increasing to end at about 11.9. Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales. Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Mortgage Rates Line chart showing 30-year conforming FRM, by percent, 2001 to March 2009. The series begins at about 7.0 and generally decreases to about 5.3 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 6.8 by mid-2006, and then generally decreases to end at about 5.1. Note: The March reading is a 2-week moving average of data available through Mar. 11, 2009. Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Figure: Prices of Existing Homes Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2001 to 2009. There are three series, "Monthly FHFA purchase-only index", "S&P/Case-Shiller national price index", and "LoanPerformance price index". They begin at about 7 and track closely together at about a constant 7 until about the beginning of 2002. S&P/CaseShiller national price index, and LoanPerformance price index continue to track closely together generally increasing to about 15 by the end of 2005. S&P/CaseShiller national price index generally decreases to end at about -18 by 2008:Q4. LoanPerformance price index generally decreases to end at about -12 by January. Monthly FHFA purchase-only index generally increases to about 16 by 2005, and generally decreases to end at about -9 by December 2008. Source: For purchase-only index, Federal Housing Finance Agency; for S&P/Case Shiller, Standard & Poor's; for LoanPerformance, First American CoreLogic. Orders and Shipments of Nondefense Capital Goods (Percent change; seasonally adjusted current dollars) 2008 Category Q3 Q4 Annual rate Shipments Excluding aircraft 2009 Nov. Dec. Jan. Monthly rate -.8 -19.8 -2.0 2.6 -4.1 -.3 -15.5 -1.3 .1 -6.7 Computers and peripherals -28.7 -25.3 -8.6 7.5 -2.0 Communications equipment -10.7 -16.6 8.2 -8.8 -.8 All other categories 1 4.0 -14.4 -1.5 .3 -7.6 -14.0 -49.9 -5.3 -10.3 -3.0 -5.2 -36.5 1.1 -5.9 -5.7 Computers and peripherals -36.6 -20.8 11.3 -5.8 -8.6 Communications equipment 16.7 -28.7 -1.8 -8.4 -9.0 All other categories 1 -3.5 -38.4 .5 -5.7 -5.1 38.1 26.0 16.5 44.9 51.1 Orders Excluding aircraft Memo: Shipments of complete aircraft2 1. Excludes most terrestrial transportation equipment. Return to table 2. From Census Bureau, Current Industrial Reports; billions of dollars, annual rate. Return to table Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Communications Equipment Line chart, by billions of chained (2002) dollars, ratio scale, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "Shipments" and "Orders". They begin at about 8 and generally decrease, tracking closely together, until they reach about 6 by the beginning of 2002. Orders generally decreases to about 2.2 by late 2002. Orders and Shipments then track closely together, coming to an end at about 5.1. Note: Shipments and orders are deflated by a price index that is derived from the quality-adjusted price indexes of the Bureau of Economic Analysis and uses the producer price index for communications equipment for monthly interpolation. Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Non-High-Tech, Non transportation Equipment Line chart, by billions of chained (2000) dollars, ratio scale, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "Shipments" and "Orders". They track closely together throughout the chart, beginning at about 45. They then generally decrease to about 37 by the beginning of 2002, and generally increase to about 46 by the beginning of 2007. They then generally decrease to end, Shipments ends at about 38, and Orders ends at about 36.8. Note: Shipments and orders are deflated by the staff price indexes for the individual equipment types included in this category. Indexes are derived from the quality-adjusted price indexes of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Computers and Peripherals Line chart, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "Industrial production", which is by 2000=100, and "Real M3 shipments", which is by Billions of chained (2000) dollars. These two series use two different scales. Industrial production begins at about 92 and generally increases to about 210 by the beginning of 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 152. Real M3 shipments begins at about 8.5 and fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 17. Note: Ratio scales. Shipments are deflated by the staff price index for computers and peripheral equipment, which is derived from the quality-adjusted price indexes of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Census Bureau; FRB Industrial Production. Figure: Medium and Heavy Trucks Line chart, by thousands of units, ratio scale, 2000 to 2009. There are two series, "Net new orders of class 5-8 trucks" and "Sales of class 4-8 trucks". Net new orders begins at about 400 and generally decreases to about 280 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 539 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 260 by the end of 2002. It then generally increases to about 960 by early 2006, and generally decreases to about 290 by late 2006. It then generally increases to about 480 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 125 by January. Sales of class 4-8 trucks begins at about 538 and generally decreases to about 270 by the beginning of 2003. It then generally increases to about 545 by the beginning of 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 290 by February. Note: Annual rate, FRB seasonals. Source: For sales, Ward's Communications; for orders, ACT Research. Fundamentals of Equipment and Software Investment Figure: Real Business Output Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1990 to 2008:Q4. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 2.8 and generally decreases to about -2.1 by early 1991. It then generally increases to about 5.5 by the beginning of 1998, and generally decreases to about -0.3 by the end of 2001. It then generally increases to about 5 by 2004, and generally decreases to end at about -1.9. Note: There are two shaded bars, one from about mid-1990 to early 1991, the other from about early 2001 to late 2001. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: User Cost of Capital Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1990 to 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Non-high tech" and "High-tech". Non-high tech begins at about -3 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 11 by the end of 1994. It then generally decreases to about -9 by 2003, and generally increases to end at about 14. It is at about 0 at the time of the NBER peak. High-tech begins at about -9 and generally increases to about -6 by late 1989. It then generally decreases to about -11 by 1992, and generally increases to about -3 by 1995. It then generally decreases to about -14 by 2004, and generally increases to about -5 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about -6.5 by 2007, and generally increases to end at about 0. It is at about -5 at the time of the NBER peak. There are two shaded bars, one from about mid-1990 to early 1991, the other from about early 2001 to late 2001. Source: Staff calculation. Figure: Corporate Bond Yields Line chart, by percent, 1991 to 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. There are two series, "10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB". 10-year high-yield begins at about 14 and then generally decreases to about 9 by 1996. It then generally increases to about 13.9 by the beginning of 2001, and generally decreases to about 7.8 by the beginning of 2005. It then generally increases to end at about 16 by March. It is at about 9.8 at the time of the NBER peak. 10-year BBB begins at about 10 and generally decreases to about 7 by 1993. It then generally increases to about 8.5 by 2000, and generally decreases to about 5.5 by 2002. It then generally increases to end at about 9. It is at about 6.5 at the time of the NBER peak. There are two shaded bars, one from about mid1990 to early 1991, the other from about early 2000 to late 2000. Note: End of month. March value as of Mar.11. Source: Merrill Lynch. Figure: NFIB: Survey on Loan Availability Line chart, by percent, 1990 to February 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Credit expected to be tighter" and "Credit more difficult to obtain". These two series use two different scales. Credit expected to be tighter begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 13 by early 1991. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 1 by 1997. It then fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 16. It is at about 8 at the time of the NBER peak. Credit more difficult to obtain begins at about 7.9 and generally increases to about 13 by early 1991. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 0 by 1998. It then fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 14. It is at about 7 at the time of the NBER peak. There are two shaded bars, one from about mid-1990 to early 1991, the other from about early 2000 to late 2000. Note: Of borrowers who sought credit in the past three months, the proportion that reported (expected) more difficulty in obtaining credit less the proportion that reported (expected) more ease in obtaining credit. Seasonally adjusted. Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Figure: Surveys of Business Conditions Line chart, a diffusion index, 1990 to 2009. The December 2007 NBER peak is marked in the time series. There are two series, "ISM" and "Philadelphia Fed". The two series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 30 and fluctuate but generally increase to about 70 by 1993. They then fluctuate but generally decrease to about 32 by 2000, and generally increase to about 65 by 2003. They then generally decrease to end at about 30. It is at about 50 at the time of the NBER peak. There are two shaded bars, one from about mid-1990 to early 1991, and the other from about early 2000 to late 2000. Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Manufacturing ISM Report on Business; Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey. Nonresidential Construction and Indicators (All spending series are seasonally adjusted at an annual rate; nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q3 and by staff projection thereafter) Figure: Total Structures Line chart, by billions of chained (2000) dollars, 1999 to January 2009. The series begins at about 260 and generally increases to about 285 by the end of 2000. It then generally decreases to about 200 by mid-2005, and generally increases to about 285 by mid-2008. It generally decreases to end at about 255. Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Office, Commercial, Communication, and Other Line chart, by billions of chained (2000) dollars, 1999 to January 2009. There are four series, "Other", "Commercial", "Office", and "Communication". Other begins at about 70 and generally increases to about 72 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about 60 by 2005, and generally increases to end at about 78. Commercial begins at about 59 and generally increases to about 65 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about 50 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 60 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 45. Office begins at about 48 and generally increases to about 58 by the beginning of 2001. It then generally decreases to about 28 by 2003 and generally increases to end at about 32. Communication begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 22 by the end of 2000. It then generally decreases to end at about 12. Note: Other consists of structures for religious organizations, education, lodging, amusement and recreation, transportation, and health care. Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Manufacturing and Power Line chart, by billions of chained (2000) dollars, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Manufacturing" and "Power". Manufacturing begins at about 40 and generally decreases to about 34 by early 2000. It then generally increases to about 43 by early 2001, and generally decreases to about 18 by 2003. It then generally increases to end at about 49. Power begins at about 25 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 42 by early 2002. It then generally decreases to about 18 by 2004, and generally increases to end at about 38. Source: Census Bureau. Figure: Architectural Billings and Nonresidential Construction Employment Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Billings", which is a diffusion index, and "Change in employment", which is by percent. These 2 series use 2 different scales. Billings begins at about 55 and generally decreases to about 44 by the end of 2001. It then generally increases to about 59 by the end of 2005, and generally decreases to end at about 34 by January. Change in employment begins at about 0.0 by early 2001 and generally decreases to about 34 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 44.5 by 2006, and generally decreases but generally decreases to about -1.5 by February. Note: Both series are 3-month moving averages. Employment consists of industrial, commercial, and specialty trade construction. Source: For billings, American Institute of Architects; for employment, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Vacancy Rates Line chart, by percent, 1999 to 2008:Q4. There are three series, "Office", "Industrial", and "Retail". Office begins at about 9.9 and generally decreases to about 8 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 17 by early 2003, and generally decreases to end at about 14. Industrial begins at about 7.5 and generally decreases to about 6.8 by early 2000. It then generally increases to about 12 by early 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 11. Retail begins at about 8and generally decreases to about 7.5 by early 2001. It then generally increases to about 9 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 7 by early 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 10. Note: Industrial space includes both manufacturing structures and warehouses. Q4 values are preliminary. Source: Torto Wheaton Research. Figure: Drilling and Mining Indicators Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Footage drilled", which is by millions of feet, and "Drillings rigs in operation", which is by number. There are two different scales for the two series. Footage drilled begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 15.5 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 11 by 2002, and generally increases to end at about 27 by January. Drilling rigs in operations begins at about 600 and generally increases to about 1250 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 800 by 2002, generally increases to about 2000 by the end of 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1200 by March. Note: The March readings for drilling rigs are based on data through March 6, 2009. Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Source: For footage drilled, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency; for drilling rigs, Baker Hughes. Nonfarm Inventory Investment (Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate) 2008 2009 Measure and sector Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. -55.1 -33.3 -25.0 … … … Motor vehicles -10.9 8.1 -8.1 … … … Nonfarm ex. motor vehicles -44.2 -41.3 -16.9 … … … Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts -24.1 -16.8 -20.7 1.1 -50.6 e n.a. -26.0 -25.6 -1.1 24.9 -22.4 e n.a. -.4 12.0 -6.1e n.a. -3.1 -1.6 -35.8 -22.1 e n.a. 97.5 46.3 -170.3 -149.2 -255.3 -85.1 Manufacturing 39.3 10.7 -65.2 -32.8 -123.2 -53.0 Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts 48.5 24.8 -66.7 -55.7 -83.6 -11.9 9.6 10.9 -38.3 -60.6 -48.5 -20.2 Real inventory investment (chained 2000 dollars) Total nonfarm business Manufacturing Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts 4.9 10.4 -19.2 Book-value inventory investment (current dollars) Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. e Staff estimate of real inventory investment based on revised book-value data. Return to table Source: For real inventory investment, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for book-value data, Census Bureau. Figure: Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles Line chart, by months, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "Staff flow-of-goods system" and "Census book-value data". Staff flow-of-goods system begins at about 1.75 and generally decreases to about 1.55 by the beginning of 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 1.66. Census book-value data begins at about 1.35and generally increases to about 1.4 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.15 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 1.35. Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to sales. Source: Census Bureau; staff calculation. Figure: ISM Customers' Inventories: Manufacturing Line chart, an index, 2000 to February 2009. The series begins at about 46 and generally increases to about 56 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 37 by 2004, generally increases to about 57 by the end of 2008 and then generally decreases to end at about 51. Note: A number above 50 indicates inventories are "too high." Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. Federal Government Budget (Unified basis; adjusted for payment-timing shifts and financial transactions; data from Monthly Treasury Statement) Figure: Surplus or Deficit (-) Line chart, by billions of dollars, 1995 to February 2009. Data are 12-month moving sum. The series begins at about -200 and then generally increases to about 290 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about -450 by 2004, and generally increases to about -150 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -650. There is a second series that begins at about -470 in late 2008 and generally decreases to end at about -950. Note: The second series includes deficit effects of financial transactions related to Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and government-sponsored enterprise equity purchase programs. Figure: Outlays and Receipts Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 1995 to February 2009. Data are 12-month moving sum. There are two series, "Receipts" and "Outlays". Receipts begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 11 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about -13 by 2002, and generally increases to about 15 by the end of 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about -7. Outlays begins at about 3, and remains about constant until about 4 by early 2000. It then generally increases to about 7 by late 2003, and generally decreases to about 4 by 1998. It then generally increases to end at about 8. Recent Federal Outlays and Receipts (Billions of dollars except as noted; adjusted for payment-timing shifts and financial transactions) Sum of January-February Function or source 2008 Outlays Net interest National defense Major transfers1 Other 12 months ending in February Percent change 2009 2008 2009 Percent change 509.1 539.1 5.9 2,830.1 3,061.6 8.2 43.0 20.2 -53.0 251.9 218.8 -13.2 97.8 99.9 2.2 586.4 642.6 9.6 292.3 333.9 14.2 1,555.8 1,722.5 10.7 76.1 85.1 11.8 436.0 477.7 9.6 Receipts Individual income and payroll taxes Corporate income taxes Other 370.9 313.4 -15.5 2,590.4 2,407.4 -7.1 331.9 283.4 -14.6 2,014.5 1,932.0 -4.1 4.4 2.5 -43.3 353.4 260.3 -26.3 34.7 27.6 -20.6 222.5 215.1 -3.3 -138.2 -225.6 … -239.8 -654.2 … -157.7 -279.3 … -263.9 -954.8 … Surplus or deficit (-) Memo: Unadjusted surplus or deficit (-) 1. Includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income security programs. Return to table … Not applicable. State and Local Indicators Figure: Real Spending on Consumption & Investment Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 1998 to 2008:Q4. There are two series, "Spending" and "4-quarter moving average". Spending begins at about 1.5, and generally increases to about 7.9by late 1998. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -2.2 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 8.5 by late 2001. It then generally decreases to about 2 by early 2003, and fluctuates but generally comes to end at about -1.7. 4-quarter moving average begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 6 by early 1999. It then generally decreases to about -0.1 by late 2004, and then generally increases to end at about 0.5. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; national income and product accounts. Figure: Net Change in Employment Bar chart, by thousands of jobs, monthly average, 1998 to 2009:Q1. The series begins at about 26 and generally increases to about 45 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 0 by 2003, and then generally increases to about 22 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about -1 by the end of 2008, and then generally increases to end at about 11. Note: Q1 is the average of January and February. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation. Figure: Real Construction Line chart, by billions of chained (2000) dollars, annual rate, 1998 to January 2009. The series begins at about 154 and generally increases to about 189 by early 2002. It then generally decreases to about 170 by late 2004, and generally increases to end at about 180. January 2009 is marked at about 171. Note: Nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q4 and by a staff projection thereafter. Source: Census Bureau, Construction Spending. Figure: State Fiscal Reserve Balances at Year-End Line chart, by percent of expenditures, 1988 to 2009. The series begins at about 4.1 and generally decreases to about 1.1 by the end of 1990. It then generally increases to about 10.4 by 2000, and generally decreases to about 3.2 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 11.5 by 2006, and then generally decreases to end at about 7. Dot marked at about 7. Note: Dot indicates estimated fiscal reserve balances; value for FY2009 is based on appropriated budgets. There are two shaded bars, one from about mid-1990 to early 1999, the other from about early 2001 to late 2001. The shaded bars are periods of business recession as defined by the Natl. Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Natl. Governors Assn. and Natl. Assn. of State Budget Officers (2008), The Fiscal Survey of States (December). Figure: State Revenues Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 1998 to 2009:Q3. Data are 4-quarter moving average. There are two series, "Individual and corporate income taxes" and "Total revenues". Individual and corporate income taxes begins at about 7 and generally increases to about 13 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -13 by 2002, and generally increases to about 16 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 3. Total revenues begins at about 6 and generally increases to about 9.8 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -4.5 by 2002, and generally increases to about 11 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 3. Source: Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue. Figure: Local Revenues Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 1998 to 2009:Q3. Data are 4-quarter moving average. There are two series, "Property taxes" and "Total revenues". Property taxes begins at about 4 and generally decreases to about 2.3 by mid-2998. It then generally increases to about 11 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 3 by 2003, and generally increases to about 9.5 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 4.5. Total revenues begins at about 5.5 and generally decreases to about 1.2 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 8 by late 2002, and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 9 by 2005, and then generally decreases to end at about 4. Source: Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue. Price Measures (Percent change) 12-month change 1-month change Measures Monthly rate Jan. 2008 Jan. 2009 Oct. 2008 Nov. 2008 Dec. 2008 Jan. 2009 CPI Total 4.3 Food Energy Ex. food and energy Core goods Core services .0 -.8 -1.7 -.8 .3 4.9 5.3 .4 .2 .0 .1 19.6 -20.4 -7.8 -16.9 -9.3 1.7 2.5 1.7 .0 .1 .0 .2 .2 -.5 -.3 -.1 -.2 .1 3.4 2.5 .1 .1 .1 .2 Shelter 3.1 1.8 .1 .2 .1 .2 Other services 3.7 3.6 .1 .1 .2 .2 3.9 -.5 … … … … 2.0 1.2 … … … … 3.6 .7 -.4 -1.1 -.5 .2 4.7 5.8 .5 .3 .1 .1 21.6 -22.5 -8.0 -17.8 -9.7 1.8 Chained CPI (n.s.a.) 1 Ex. food and energy 1 PCE prices Total Food and beverages Energy Ex. food and energy 2.2 1.6 .0 .0 .0 .1 Core goods -.2 -.2 -.1 -.2 -.3 .2 Core services 3.2 2.3 .1 .1 .1 .1 Housing services 3.1 2.1 .1 .2 .1 .2 Other services 3.2 2.4 .1 .0 .1 .1 Core market-based 1.8 1.5 .1 .0 .0 .1 Core non-market-based 4.0 1.8 -.1 .0 .0 .1 7.4 -1.0 -2.7 -2.5 -1.9 .8 PPI Total finished goods Food 8.3 1.8 .0 .2 -1.4 -.4 22.9 -18.4 -12.8 -12.4 -9.1 3.7 2.4 4.2 .4 .1 .2 .4 Core consumer goods 2.8 4.3 .3 .1 .3 .3 Capital equipment 1.7 4.0 .4 .1 .1 .5 Energy Ex. food and energy Intermediate materials 8.9 -3.5 -3.8 -4.3 -4.2 -.7 Ex. food and energy 4.2 1.2 -1.5 -2.2 -2.9 -1.1 30.8 -29.1 -17.2 -12.6 -5.3 -2.9 20.3 -27.9 -15.6 -20.8 -2.2 .1 Crude materials Ex. food and energy 1. Higher-frequency figures are not applicable for data that are not seasonally adjusted (n.s.a.). Return to table … Not applicable. Source: For consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Consumer Prices (12-month change except as noted) Figure: PCE Prices Line chart, by percent, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "Total PCE" and "Core PCE". Total PCE begins at about 2.5 and generally decreases at about 1 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 4 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 1.5 by late 2006. It then generally increases to about 4.5 by 2008, and then generally decreases to end at about 0.8. Core PCE begins at about 1.8 and generally increases to about 2.4 by the end of 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by then end of 2003, and generally increases to end at about 1.6. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure: CPI and PCE ex. Food and Energy Line chart, by percent, 2000 to January 2009. There are three series, "CPI", "CPI chained", and "PCE". CPI begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 2.8 by late 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by late 2003, and generally increases to about 3 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.7. CPI chained begins at about 1.9 by the beginning of 2001, and generally decreases to about 0.8 by late2003. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by 2006 and then generally decreases to end at about 1.2. PCE begins at about 1.8 and generally increases 2.3 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by 2003 and then generally increases to end at about 1.5. Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for PCE, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy Line chart, by percent, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "PCE excluding Food and Energy" and "Market-based components". PCE begins at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 2.4 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by late 2003, and generally increases to about 2.5 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.6. Market-based components begins at about 1.2 and generally decreases to about 1 by late 2003. It then generally increases to end at about 1.5. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: PCE Goods and Services Line chart, by percent, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "Services ex. energy" and "Goods ex. food and energy". Services begins at about 2.8 and then generally decreases to about 2.1 by the end of 2000. It then generally increases to about 3.9 by the end of 2002 and decreases to about 2.6 by early 2003. It then remains about constant but generally decreases to end at about 2.2. Goods begins at about -0.8 and generally decreases to about -2.9 by late 2003. It then generally increases to about 0.2 by early 2005, and generally decreases to about -1 by late 2007. It then generally increases to end at about -0.1. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy Line chart, by percent, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "PCE excluding Food and Energy" and "3-month change, annual rate". PCE excluding Food and Energy begins at about 1.8 and generally increases to about 2.5 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by 2003, and generally increases to about 2.5 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.6. 3-month change begins at about 2.1, and generally decreases to about -0.8 by 2001:Q3. It then generally increases to about 4.2 by late 2002 and then decreases to about 1 in mid-2002. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 2.5 by late 2008, and then generally decreases to end at about 0.1. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: CPI excluding Food and Energy Line chart, by percent, 2000 to January 2009. There are two series, "CPI excluding Food and Energy" and "3-month change, annual rate". CPI begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about 1.1 by late 2003. It then generally increases to about 3 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 1.8. 3-month change begins at about 2.1 and generally decreases to about 0.3. It then generally increases to about 3.5 by mid-2006, and fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about 0.9. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Energy and Food Price Indicators (Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration except as noted) Figure: Total Gasoline Margin Line chart, by cents per gallon, 2005 to March 9, 2009. Data are retail price less average spot crude price. Regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff, less average spot crude price: 60% West Texas intermediate, 40% Maya heavy crude. Includes gasoline taxes. The series begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 75 by mid-2005. It then generally increases to about 158 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 100 by late 2006. It then generally increases to about 160 by -2007. It then generally decreases to about 78 by mid-2008, and generally increases to about 155 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 98. Figure: Gasoline Price Decomposition Line chart, by cents per gallon, 2005 to March 9, 2009. There are three series, "Retail price", "Rack price", and "Average spot crude price". Retail price begins at about 190 and generally increases to about 300 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 225 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 400 by mid2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 210. Rack price begins at about 140 and generally increases to about 235 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 155 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 350 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 150. Average spot crude price begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 155 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 100 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 325 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 100. Note: Retail price is regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Average spot crude price is 60% West Texas intermediate, 40% Maya heavy crude. Figure: Gasoline Inventories Line chart, by millions of barrels, 2006 to March 6, 2009. Data are adjusted for ethanol use. The RBOB component of total motor gasoline inventories is adjusted for ethanol use after 2006, boosting reported stocks; estimated by FRB staff. The series begins at about 196 and generally increases to about 225 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 210 by late 2006, and then generally increases to about 230 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 200 by 2007, and generally increases to 240 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about 195 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about at about 217. Note: Bounds are defined as the monthly mean over the preceding five years, plus/minus the standard deviation for each month. The bounds generally track the series throughout the chart, typically being about 20 million barrels wide, with the series typically being toward the center of the bounds. Monthly data through December 2008, weekly data thereafter. Figure: Natural Gas Prices Line chart, by dollars per million BTU, 2005 to March 10, 2009. The series begins at about 5.5 and generally increases to about 15.5 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 4.5 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 13.5 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 4. Note: National average spot price. Source: Bloomberg. Figure: PCE: Food and Core Prices Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2005 to January 2009. There are two series, "Food and beverages" and "Core ex. food and energy)". Food and beverages begins at about 2.5 and remains about constant until about late 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 6. Core begins at about 2.1 and generally remains constant until it ends at about 1.6. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: Spot Agricultural Commodity Prices Line chart, by dollars per bushel, 2005 to March 10, 2009. There are three series, "Corn", "Soybeans" and "Wheat". There 2 different scales, Soybeans and Wheat share one and Corn uses the other. Corn begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 7 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.8. Soybeans begins at about 5.5 and generally increases to about 16 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 9. Wheat begins at about 3.9 and generally increases to about 13 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 6. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Broad Measures of Inflation (Percent change, Q4 to Q4) Measure 2005 2006 2007 2008 Product prices GDP price index 3.5 2.6 2.0 3.0 2.3 1.7 3.6 2.4 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.5 3.3 2.0 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.9 3.1 1.6 3.3 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 3.8 1.9 4.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 3.2 Nonfarm business chain price index 2.8 3.3 Less food and energy 1.7 3.6 1.1 Expenditure prices Gross domestic purchases price index Less food and energy PCE price index Less food and energy PCE price index, market-based components Less food and energy CPI Less food and energy Chained CPI 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.5 Median CPI Less food and energy 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 Trimmed mean CPI 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 Trimmed mean PCE 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.4 Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for all else, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Surveys of Inflation Expectations (Percent) Reuters/Michigan Survey Period Actual CPI inflation1 1 year2 Mean Professional forecasters (10 years) 4 5 to 10 years 3 Median Mean Median CPI PCE 2007: Q2 2.7 4.2 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.0 Q3 2.4 4.1 3.2 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.1 Q4 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2008: Q1 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.2 Q2 4.4 6.4 5.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.2 Q3 5.3 5.4 4.7 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.2 Q4 1.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2009: Q1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 2.2 2008: Oct. 3.7 4.3 3.9 3.1 2.9 … … Nov. 1.1 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.2 Dec. .1 1.7 1.7 2.6 2.6 … … 2009: Jan. .0 2.5 2.2 3.4 2.9 … … Feb. n.a. 2.3 1.9 3.5 3.1 2.4 2.2 1. Percent change from the same period in the preceding year. Return to table 2. Responses to the question, By about what percent do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 12 months? Return to table 3. Responses to the question, By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 5 to 10 years? Return to table 4. Median CPI and PCE price projections. Return to table … Not applicable. n.a. Not available. Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for Reuters/Michigan Survey, Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; for professional forecasters, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Measures of Expected Inflation Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/University of Michigan) Line chart, by percent, 1972 to 2009:Q4. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Median, next 5 to 10 years" and "Median, next 12 months". Median, next 5 to 10 years begins at about 6.2 by 1981 and generally decreases to about 4.5 by 1985. There is no data from late 1985 to mid-1990, where it begins at about 4.2 and remains about constant but generally decreases to end at about 3. Median, next 12 months begins at about 6 by 1978 and generally increases to about 10 by 1980. It then generally decreases to about 2.8 by 1983, and generally increases to about 4.8 by late 1990. It then generally decreases to about 1 by 2002, and generally increases to about 5 by 2008. It then generally decreases end at about 1. There is a second line chart, by percent, showing monthly data from 2005 to February 2009. There are two series, "Median, next 5 to 10 years" and "Median, next 12 months". Median, next 5 to 10 years begins at about 2.8 and generally increases to about 3.2 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 3. Median, next 12 months begins at about 2.9 and generally increases to about 4.5 by the end of 2005. It then generally decreases to about 3 by 2007, generally increases to about 5.1 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Figure: Inputs to Models of Inflation Line chart, by percent, 1972 to 2009:Q1. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation" and "Distributed lag of core PCE inflation". FRB/US begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 7.8 by 1981. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.1. Distributed lag begins at about 4.9 and generally increases to about 8.5 by 1981. It then decreases to end at about 2. There is a second line chart, by percent, showing Quarterly data from 2005 to 2009:Q1. There are two series, "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation" and "Distributed lag of core PCE inflation". FRB.US begins at about 2 and remains about constant until 2007 when it generally increases to end at about 2.1. PCE inflation begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 2.4 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.8. Note: The distributed lag of core PCE inflation is derived from one of the reduced-form Phillips curves used by Board staff. Source: For the distributed lag of core PCE inflation, FRB staff calculations; for the FRB/US measure, for 2007 forward, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF); for 1990 to 2006, the equivalent SPF projection for the CPI; for 1981 to 1989, a related survey for the CPI conducted by Richard Hoey; and for the period preceding 1981, a model-based estimate constructed by Board staff. The survey data before 2007 are adjusted down 0.5 percentage point to put the CPI projections approximately on a PCE basis. Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS Line chart, by percent, 2001 to 2009:Q4. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next 5 years". 5 to 10 years ahead begins at about 2.1 and generally increases to about 3 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by early 2007, and generally increases to end at about 2.9. Next 5 years begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 2.8 by early 2005. It remains about constant until about 2008 when it hits 2.1 and then generally decreases to end at about -0.5. There is a second line chart, by percent, showing Weekly data from 2005 to March 10, 2009. There are two series, "5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next 5 years". They begin at about 2.8 and track closely together until about mid-2006 when they reach 2.6. 5 to 10 years ahead generally increases to about 3.5 by late 2008, and then generally decreases to end at about 2.3. Next 5 years generally decreases to about -1.5 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about -0.1. Note: Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for the indexation-lag effect. Source: FRB staff calculations. Commodity Price Indexes Figure: Journal of Commerce Line chart, 1991 to March 10, 2009. Ratio scale, 2006=100. There are two series, "Industrials" and "Metals". Industrials begins at about 58 and generally increases to about 65 by early 1995. It then generally decreases to about 50 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 138 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 65. Metals begins at about 45 and generally increases to about 58 by early 1995. It then generally decreases to about 32 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 160 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 65. Note: The Journal of Commerce (JOC) industrial price index is based almost entirely on industrial commodities, with a small weight given to energy commodities. Copyright for JOC data is held by CIBCR, 1994. Figure: Commodity Research Bureau Line chart, 1991 to March 10, 2009. Ratio scale, 1967=100. There are two series, "Spot industrials" and "Futures". Spot industrials begins at about 300 and generally decreases to about 250 by 1993. It then generally increases to about 350 by 1995, and generally decreases to about 230 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 550 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 345. Futures begins at about 220 and generally increases to about 255 by 1996. It then generally decreases to about 190 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 600 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 350. Note: The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) spot industrials index consists entirely of industrial commodities, excluding energy. The CRB futures index gives about a 60 percent weight to food commodities and splits the remaining weight roughly equally among energy commodities, industrial commodities, and precious metals. Selected Commodity Price Indexes (Percent change) 2008 1 Index 12/30/08 to 1/20/09 2 1/20/09 2 to 3/10/09 52-week change to 3/10/09 JOC industrials -41.4 4.2 -3.1 -47.5 JOC metals -48.2 12.5 -3.8 -55.2 CRB spot industrials -34.3 3.6 -2.3 -39.0 CRB spot foodstuffs -14.1 2.5 -5.3 -28.8 CRB futures -24.7 .5 -1.8 -38.5 1. From the last week of the preceding year to the last week of the year indicated. Return to table 2. January 20, 2009, is the Tuesday preceding publication of the January Greenbook. Return to table Change in Employment Cost Index of Hourly Compensation for Private-Industry Workers 2007 2008 Measure Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Quarterly change (compound annual rate) 1 Total hourly compensation 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.6 1.9 Wages and salaries 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.2 2.2 Benefits 3.1 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.5 2.8 2.4 12-month change Total hourly compensation 3.0 3.2 3.0 Wages and salaries 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 Benefits 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.0 1. Seasonally adjusted. Return to table Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Change in ECI Benefits (confidential) (Private-industry workers; 12-month change) Figure: Health Insurance Line chart, by percent, 1991 to December 2008. The series begins at about 12 and generally decreases to about -0.5 by 1995. It then generally increases to about 11 by 2002, and generally decreases to end at about 4. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Nonproduction Bonuses Line chart, by percent, 1991 to December 2008. The series begins at about 14 and generally decreases to about -8 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 11 by 2001, and generally decreases to about -7 by 2002. It then fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 4. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Retirement and Savings Line chart, by percent, 1991 to December 2008. The series begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 11 by late 1994. It then generally decreases to about 3 by early 2003, and generally increases to about 26 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to end at about 1. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Workers' Compensation Insurance Line chart, by percent, 1991 to December 2008. The series begins at about 11 and generally decreases to about -6 by early 1998. It then generally increases to about 14 by 2003, and generally decreases to end at about -1. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hourly Compensation and Unit Labor Costs (Percent change from preceding period at compound annual rate; based on seasonally adjusted data) Category 2006:Q4 to 2007:Q4 2007:Q4 to 2008:Q4e 2008 Q1 Q2 Q4 e Q3 Compensation per hour Nonfarm business 3.6 4.1 3.7 1.7 5.7 5.2 2.6 2.1 2.6 4.7 2.2 -.9 .9 1.9 1.1 -2.8 3.5 6.2 Output per hour Nonfarm business Unit labor costs Nonfarm business e Staff estimate. Return to table Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Compensation per Hour Line chart, by percent change from year-earlier period, 1996 to 2008:Q4. There are two series, "Productivity and costs" and "ECI". Productivity and costs begins at about 3.1 and generally increases to about 8 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 3 by early 2003, and generally increases about 5.3 by late 2003. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about 4. ECI begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 4.7 by 2000. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about 2.5. Note: Productivity and costs value for 2008:Q4 is a staff estimate. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Unit Labor Costs Line chart, by percent change from year-earlier period, 1996 to 2008:Q4. The series begins at about 1 and generally increases to about 5 by the end of 2000. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 4.1 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 0 by early 2008, and generally increases to end at about 2. Note: Value for 2008:Q4 is a staff estimate. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Average Hourly Earnings Line chart, by percent change from year-earlier period, 1997 to February 2009. The series begins at about 3.2 and generally increases to about 4.4 by 1998. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by early 2004, and generally increases to end at about 3.6. Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Markup, Nonfarm Business Line chart, by ratio, 1996 to 2008:Q4. The series begins at about 1.62 and generally increases to about 1.636 by late 1997. It then generally decreases to about 1.53 by early 2001, and then generally increases to end at about 1.63. There is a horizontal line at about 1.575, marking the Average ratio, from 1968 to present. Note: The markup is the ratio of output price to unit labor costs. Value for 2008:Q4 is a staff estimate. Source: For output price, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for unit labor costs, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Appendix: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Estimated Federal Cost of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Billions of dollars, fiscal years) Item Total Total (2009-19) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-19 787 185 399 134 36 35 283 66 212 39 -9 -21 232 26 173 31 0 3 116 20 66 30 0 0 AMT relief 70 2 83 -15 0 0 Other 1 46 4 24 16 0 3 Corporate 51 41 39 7 -9 -24 5 24 15 -8 -7 -19 46 17 24 16 -2 -5 504 118 187 96 45 56 116 51 51 8 4 3 40 17 21 1 1 1 Taxes Individual "Making Work Pay" tax credit Bonus depreciation Other 2 Spending Transfers Unemployment insurance Food stamps 20 5 6 4 3 2 Retirees and veterans 14 14 0 0 0 0 Health insurance subsidies 25 14 9 1 0 0 Pell Grants 17 1 15 1 0 0 276 57 111 61 19 25 54 7 28 16 2 0 Relief (Medicaid match) 90 34 44 12 0 0 Education 32 2 15 13 2 0 100 14 23 21 15 24 Grants Stabilization Other 3 Federal purchases 69 9 21 16 10 12 Subsidies for long-term projects 45 1 4 10 12 17 Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. AMT is the alternative minimum tax. 1. Includes an increase in the earned income tax credit and an expansion of the child tax credit. Return to table 2. Includes the deferral of income arising from the discharging of business debt. Return to table 3. Includes grants for highways, sewers, and other infrastructure projects. Return to table Source: Congressional Budget Office and staff estimates. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts† Domestic Financial Developments Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) 2007 2008 Aug. 6 Dec. 15 2009 Change to Mar. 11 from selected dates (percentage points) Instrument Jan. 27 Mar. 11 2007 Aug. 6 2008 Dec. 15 2009 Jan. 27 Short-term FOMC intended federal funds rate 5.25 1.00 .13 .13 -5.12 -.87 .00 3-month 4.74 .04 .13 .23 -4.51 .19 .10 6-month 4.72 .28 .32 .45 -4.27 .17 .13 Treasury bills1 Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2 1-month 5.26 .53 .29 .52 -4.74 -.01 .23 3-month 5.29 1.35 2.04 .66 -4.63 -.69 -1.38 3-month 5.34 1.85 1.08 1.17 -4.17 -.68 .09 6-month 5.27 2.24 1.57 1.87 -3.40 -.37 .30 1-month 5.33 1.50 .75 1.00 -4.33 -.50 .25 3-month 5.35 2.55 1.75 1.65 -3.70 -.90 -.10 8.25 4.00 3.25 3.25 -5.00 -.75 .00 2-year 4.49 .48 .68 1.02 -3.47 .54 .34 5-year 4.52 1.57 1.74 2.10 -2.42 .53 .36 10-year 4.82 3.08 3.17 3.42 -1.40 .34 .25 5-year 2.43 2.99 1.84 2.29 -.14 -.70 .45 10-year 2.48 2.66 1.97 2.47 -.01 -.19 .50 4.51 5.85 5.13 4.96 .45 -.89 -.17 5.44 2.76 2.84 3.25 -2.19 .49 .41 5.34 3.50 3.65 3.79 -1.55 .29 .14 6.12 6.86 6.15 6.74 .62 -.12 .59 6.57 9.59 8.89 9.16 2.59 -.43 .27 9.21 18.30 14.78 15.73 6.52 -2.57 .95 6.59 5.19 5.10 5.03 -1.56 -.16 -.07 Large negotiable CDs 1 Eurodollar deposits3 Bank prime rate Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury 4 U.S. Treasury indexed notes 5 Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer) 6 Private instruments 10-year swap 7 10-year FNMA 10-year AA 8 10-year BBB 8 10-year high yield 8 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) 30-year fixed 1-year adjustable 5.65 Record high 4.94 2008 4.90 4.80 2009 -.85 -.14 -.10 Change to Mar. 11 from selected dates (percent) Stock exchange index Dec. 15 Jan. 27 Mar. 11 Dow Jones Industrial Level 14,165 10-9-07 Date 8,565 8,175 6,930 Record high -51.07 2008 Dec. 15 -19.08 2009 Jan. 27 -15.22 S&P 500 Composite 1,565 10-9-07 869 846 721 -53.91 -16.95 -14.70 Nasdaq 5,049 3-10-00 1,508 1,505 1,372 -72.83 -9.06 -8.86 Russell 2000 856 7-13-07 453 456 366 -57.20 -19.06 -19.60 Wilshire 5000 15,807 10-9-07 8,664 8,524 7,319 -53.70 -15.53 -14.14 1. Secondary market. Return to table 2. Financial commercial paper. Return to table 3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. Return to table 4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Return to table 5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. Return to table 6. Most recent Thursday quote. Return to table 7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. Return to table 8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. Return to table NOTES: August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting. December 15, 2008, is the day before the December 2008 FOMC monetary policy announcement. January 27, 2009, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement. Data for the 3-month commercial paper rate on December 15, 2008, are from December 4, 2008, the most recent date for which a sufficient volume of new issues was available to calculate this rate. Financial Institutions and Short-Term Funding Markets Figure: S&P Banks Equity Index Line chart, July 2007 to March 11, 2009. January 27, 2009=100, ratio scale. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 500 and generally decreases to end at about 80. It is at about 110 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: Bloomberg. Figure: Senior CDS Spreads for Bank Holding Companies Line chart, by basis points, July 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 205 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 75 by May 2008, and then fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 300. Note: Median spreads for 6 bank holding companies. Source: Markit. Figure: Subordinated CDS Spreads for Bank Holding Companies Line chart, July 2007 to March 11, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 225 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 125 by June 2008, and generally increases to about 350 by October 2008. It then generally decreases to about 160 by January 2009, and generally increases to end at about 440. It is at about 200 at the time of January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Sector median. Source: Markit. Figure: S&P Insurance Equity Index Line chart, July 2007 to March 11, 2009. January 27, 2009=100, ratio scale. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 350 and generally decreases to about 85 by the end of November 2008. It then generally increases to about 125 by January 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 70. It is at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: Standard & Poor's. Figure: Libor over OIS Spread Line chart, by basis points, July 2007 to March 12, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "1-month", "3-month", and "6-month". They track closely together, beginning at about 2 and generally increasing to about 100 by December 2007. They then generally decrease to about 60 by March 2008, and generally increase to about 340 by October 2008. 1-month generally decreases to end at about 40. It is at about 35 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 3-month generally decreases to end at about 101. It is at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 6-month generally decreases to end at about 155. It is at about 145 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: British Bankers' Association and Prebon. Figure: Spreads on 30-day Commercial Paper Line chart, by basis points, July 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "ABCP" and "A2/P2". They track closely together, beginning at about 1 and generally increasing to about 200 by December 2007. They then generally decrease to about 50 by September 2008, and generally increase to about 400 by October. ABCP then generally decreases to end at about 40. It is at about 50 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. A2/P2 generally increases to about 600 by early January 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 100. It is at about 200 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: The ABCP spread is the AA ABCP rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. Federal Reserve Liquidity Provision Figure: Total Federal Reserve Assets Line chart, by billions of dollars, January 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are weekly. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 801 and remains about constant until about September 2008. It then generally increases to about 2200 by January 2009, and decrease to end at about 1900. It is at about 1990 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Statistical Release H.4.1, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances." Figure: Primary Credit Line chart, by billions of dollars, March 2008 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Total" and "Foreign". They begin at about 0, and continue to track closely together until they reach about 20 by the end of May 2008. Total generally increases to about 113 by the beginning of November 2008, and then generally decreases to end at about 70. It is at about 73 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Foreign generally increases to about 80 by November 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 68. It is at about 68 at the time of January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Term Auction Facility Line chart, by billions of dollars, December 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Total" and "Foreign". Total begins at about 50 by January 2008, and generally increases to about 150 by May 2008. It then remains about constant until October, and generally increases to about 450 by the end of December 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 500. It is at about 405 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Foreign begins at about 20 and generally increases to about 100 by June 2008. It then generally decreases to about 80 by the end of September, and generally increases to end at about 195. It is at about 192 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Primary Dealer Credit Facility Line chart, by billions of dollars, March 2008 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 40 by the beginning of April. It then generally decreases to about 0 by September 2008, and generally increases to about 155 by the beginning of October. It then generally decreases to end at about 20. It is at about 30 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Other Credit Extensions Line chart, by billions of dollars, September 2008 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "AIG", "AMLF" and "CPFF". AIG begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 75 by the end of November. It then generally decreases and remains about constant until the end at about 50. It is at about 45 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. AMLF begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 150 by the beginning of October. It then generally decreases to end at about 1. It is at about 15 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. CPFF begins in October 2008 at about 0 and generally increases to about 225 by the beginning of November. It then continues to increase to about 350 by the end of January, and generally decreases to end at about 245. It is at about 255 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: AMLF is the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility; AIG is American International Group, Inc.; CPFF is the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Policy Expectations and Treasury Yields Figure: Interest Rates Line chart, by percent, January 27 to March 11. There are two series, "10-year Treasury yield" and "June 2009 Eurodollar". These two series use two different scales. 10-year Treasury yield begins at about 2.61 and generally increases to about 3.05 by the end of February 9. It then generally decreases to about 2.64 by February 17, and generally increases to about 3.5 by February 26. It then generally decreases to about 2.8 by March 5, and generally increases to end at about 2.9. June 2009 Eurodollar begins at about 1.1 and generally increases to about 1.35 by February 2. It then generally decreases to about 1.1 by February 6, and generally increases to end at about 1.4. The FOMC statement is marked in the time series at about the end of January 28. The PCE is marked in the time series at about February 2. Nonfarm payrolls is marked in the time series at about February 5. Fin. Stab. Plan announcement is marked in the time series at about February 9. Phil. Fed index is marked in the time series at about February 18. The Chairman's testimony is marked in the time series at about February 23. The Nonfarm payrolls is marked in the time series at about March 5. Note: 5-minute intervals. 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. No adjustments for term premiums. Source: Bloomberg. Figure: Implied Federal Funds Rate Line chart, by percent, January 2009 to May 2011. There are two series, "January 27, 2009" and "March 11, 2009". They begin at about 0.2 and track closely together until about 1.0 by July 2010. January 27, 2009 generally increases to end at about 1.6. March 11, 2009 generally increases to end at about 1.55. Note: Estimated from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange; Chicago Board of Trade. Figure: Treasury Yield Curve Line chart, by percent, 1-20 years ahead. There are two series, "March 11, 2009" and "January 27, 2009". March 11, 2009 begins at about 0.6 and generally increases to about 3.9 by about 12 years ahead. It then remains about constant to end at about 4.0. January 27, 2009 begins at about 0.5 and generally increases to about 3.6 by about 13 years ahead. It then remains about constant to end at about 3.6. Note: Smoothed yield curve estimated from off-the-run Treasury coupon securities. Yields shown are those on notional par Treasury securities with semiannual coupons. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Figure: Inflation Compensation Line chart, by percent, January 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next 5 years". 5 to 10 years ahead begins at about 2.5 and generally increases to about 3.1 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.9 by May 2008, and generally increases to about 3.5 by November 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.1. It is at about 2.8 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Next 5 years begins at about 2.2 and generally increases to about 2.5 by July 2008. It then generally decreases to about -1.6 by December 2008, generally increases to about 0.5 by February 2009, and generally decreases to end at about -0.1. Note: Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields. Next 5 years is adjusted for lagged indexation of Treasury inflation-protected securities. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Figure: Long-Term Inflation Expectations from Surveys Line chart, by percent, 2002 to February 2009. Data are daily. There are two series, "Reuters/Michigan", and "Philadelphia Fed". Reuters/Michigan begins at about 2.8 and generally decreases to about 2.6 by the end of 2002. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 3.4 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3. Philadelphia Fed begins at about 2.5 and remains about constant until about 2007 when it reaches about 2.3. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by the beginning of 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2.4. Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Survey of Professional Forecasters. Corporate Yields, Risk Spreads, and Stock Prices Figure: Selected Stock Price Indexes Line chart, January 2008 to March 11, 2009. January 27, 2009=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "S&P Financial" and "S&P 500". S&P begins at about 310 and generally decreases to about 200 by July 2008. It then generally increases to about 255 by September 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 80. S&P 500 begins at about 165 and generally decreases to about 110 by October 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 80. Source: Standard & Poor's. Figure: Ratio of Trend Earnings to Price for S&P 500 and Long-Run Treasury Yield Line chart, by percent, 1985 to March 11, 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "(Trend earnings)/P" and "Long-run real Treasury yield". (Trend earnings)/P begins at about 11 and generally decreases to about 7 by the end of 1987. It then generally increases to about 10 by the beginning of 1988, and generally decreases to about 4 by the end of 2000. It then generally increases to end at about 10. Long-run real Treasury yield begins at about 8 and generally decreases to about 4 by 1986. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about 2. Note: Tread earnings are estimated using analysts' forecasts of year-ahead earnings from I/B/E/S. There are two marks on the chart, at about 11.5 for Trend earnings and about 2 for Long-run real Treasury yield that denote the latest observation using daily interest rates and stock prices and latest earnings data from I/B/E/S. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure: Implied Volatility on S&P 500 (VIX) Line chart, by percent, 2002 to March 11, 2009. Data are weekly, as measured on Fridays or the most recent business day. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 20 and generally increases to about 30 by mid-2002. It then generally decreases to about 10 by the beginning of 2006, and generally increases to about 78 by the end of 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 45. Source: Chicago Board of Exchange. Figure: Corporate Bond Yields Line chart, by percent, 2002 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB". 10-year high-yield begins at about 11 and generally increases to about 12.5 by the end of 2002. It then generally decreases to about 7 by 2005, and generally increases to about 19.5. It then generally decreases to end at about 17. It is at about 14.5 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 10-year BBB begins at about 7.5 and generally decreases to about 5 by 2003. It then generally increases to end at about 9. It is at about 9 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Yields from smoothed yield curves based on Merrill Lynch bond data. Figure: Corporate Bond Spreads Line chart, by basis points, 2002 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. 10-year high-yield begins at about 598 and generally increases to about 898 by the end of 2002. It then generally decreases to about 300 by 2005, generally increases to about 1650 by the end of 2008, and generally decreases to about 1050. It is at about 1150 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 10-year BBB begins at about 200 and generally increases to about 300 by the end of 2002. It then generally decreases to about 100 by 2005. It then generally increases to end at about 599. It is at about 599 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Corporate yields from smoothed yields curves based on Merrill Lynch bond data and spreads measured relative to comparable-maturity Treasury securities. Figure: Estimated Median Bid-Asked Spread for Corporate Bonds Line chart, by basis points, 2005 to March 11, 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Highyield" and "Investment-grade". High-yield begins at about 125 and generally increases to about 225 by the end of 2005. It then generally decreases to about 100 by 2007, generally increases to about 360 by the end of 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 270. It is at about 160 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Investment-grade begins at about 80 and generally decreases to about 50 by the end of 2006. It then generally increases to about 150 by the end of 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 120. It is at about 110 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: Staff estimate using data from the National Assn. of Securities Dealers' Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine. Corporate Earnings and Credit Quality Figure: S&P 500 Earnings Per Share Line chart, by percent, 1998 to 2009:Q4. Data changes from 4 quarters earlier. There are two series, "All firms", "Nonfinancials". All firms begins at about 1 and generally increases to about 21 by 1999. It then generally decreases to about -25 by 2001, and generally increases to about 27 by the beginning of 2004. It then generally decreases to end at about -65. Nonfinancials begins at about -1 and generally increases to about -22 by the beginning of 2000. It then generally decreases to about -28 by the end of 2001, and generally increases to about 32 by 2004. It then generally decreases to end at about -19. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure: Revisions to Expected S&P 500 Earnings Line chart, by percent, 2002 to Mid-February 2009. There are two series, "All firms", and "Nonfinancials". They begin at about -1 and generally decreases to about 3.5 by the end of 2002. It then generally increases to about 2 by 2004.The two series track closely together throughout the chart, until about mid-2007 when they reach about 0. All firms generally decreases to end at about -17. Nonfinancials generally decreases to end at about -12. Note: Index is a weighted average of the percent change in the consensus forecasts of current-year and following-year earnings per share for a fixed sample. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure: Financial Ratios for Nonfinancial Corporations Line chart, by ratio, 1989 to 2009:Q3. There are two series, "Debt over total assets" and "Liquid assets over total assets". These two series use two different scales. Debt over total assets begins at about 0.325 and generally decreases to about 0.275 by 1996. It then generally increases to about 0.305, and generally decreases to about 0.245 by 2005. It then generally increases to end at about 0.275. Liquid assets begins at about 0.052 and generally increases to about 0.075 by 1999. It then generally decreases to about 0.05 by the beginning of 2001, generally increases to about 0.10 by the end of 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 0.089. Note: Data are annual through 1999 and quarterly starting in 2000:Q1. Source: Calculated using Compustat data. Figure: Bond Ratings Changes of Nonfinancial Companies Bar chart, by percent of outstandings, 1991 to 2009. Data are annual rate. There are two series, "Upgrades" and "Downgrades". Upgrades begins at about 10.2 and generally decreases to about 8 by 1994. It then generally increases to about 20 by 1995, and generally decreases to about 1 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 10 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 9. In the first half of 2008, it is at about 5. Downgrades begins at about 28 and generally increases to about 36 by the beginning of 1992. It then generally decreases to about 9 by 1995, and generally increases to about 38 by 2002. It then generally decreases to end at about 22. It is at about 15 by 2008:Q3 and at about 32 by 2008:Q4. Source: Calculated using data from Moody's Investors Service. Figure: Expected Year-Ahead Defaults Line chart, by percent of liabilities, 1990 to February 2009. Data are monthly. The series begins at about 0.9 and generally increases to about 1.2 by the end of 1990. It then generally decreases to about 0.1 by 1997, and generally increases to about 1.5 by the end of 2002. It then generally decreases to about 0.1 by 2007, and generally increases to end at about 9. Note: Firm-level estimates of default weighted by firm liabilities as a percent of total liabilities, excluding defaulted firms. Source: Calculated using Moody's KMV. Figure: Selected Default and Delinquency Rates Line chart, by percent of outstandings, 1990 to February 2009:Q4. There are two series, "C&I loan delinquency rate" and "Bond default rate". C&I loan delinquency rate begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 6.1. It then generally decreases to about 1.6 by 1997, and generally increases to about 3.9 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.1 by the end of 2006, and generally increases to end at about 2.5. Bond default rate begins at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 3.2 by the beginning of 1991. It then generally decreases to about 0 by the beginning of 1994, and generally increases to about 3.8 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 0.1 by the end of 2005, and generally increases to end at about 7.1. Note: Bond default rate is a 6-month moving average. Source: For default rate, Moody's Investors Service; for delinquency rate, Call Report. Business Finance Gross Issuance of Securities by U.S. Corporations (Billions of dollars; monthly rates, not seasonally adjusted) 2008 Type of security 2005 2006 2009 2007 H1 H2 Jan. Feb. Nonfinancial corporations Stocks 1 4.7 5.5 3.5 4.0 3.1 2.8 Initial public offerings 1.7 1.8 1.6 .6 .1 .0 .8 Seasoned offerings 4.6 2.8 2.9 3.8 2.9 3.9 3.1 2.0 Bonds 2 18.7 29.3 35.1 36.0 18.4 41.7 64.9 8.7 13.1 17.5 24.9 14.2 33.1 39.5 Investment grade Speculative grade 5.2 6.2 7.5 3.1 .4 3.3 2.9 Other (sold abroad/unrated) 4.8 10.1 10.0 8.0 3.7 5.4 22.5 -.2 2.4 -.4 -.5 3.7 4.2 -21.7 9.7 11.9 21.2 11.0 9.0 5.6 -19.2 Stocks 1 5.0 5.3 8.6 17.2 9.9 .6 .3 2 170.4 180.6 151.7 66.3 24.5 37.4 27.7 Memo Net issuance of commercial paper 3 Change in C&I loans at commercial banks 3 Financial corporations Bonds Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Excludes private placements and equity-for-equity swaps that occur in restructurings. Return to table 2. Data include regular and 144a private placements. Bond totals reflect gross proceeds rather than par value of original discount bonds. Bonds are categorized according to Moody's bond ratings or to Standard & Poor's if unrated by Moody's. Return to table 3. End-of-period basis, seasonally adjusted. Return to table Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; Thomson Financial; Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Selected Components of Net Debt Financing Bar chart, in Billions of dollars, 2005 to February 2009. Data are monthly rate, nonfinancial firms. There are three series, "Commercial paper", "C&I loans", and "Bonds". They are seasonally adjusted, period-end basis. There is also a "Total" series presented as a line chart which sums the total of the other series. Approximate values are: 2005: Bonds 5, C&I 10, Commercial paper 0, Total 15. 2006: Bonds 19, C&I 11, Commercial Paper 2, Total 32. 2007: Bonds 35, C&I 11, Commercial paper 0, Total 46. 2008:H1: Bonds 25, C&I 8, Commercial paper 0, Total 33. 2008:H2: Bonds 10, C&I 10, Commercial paper 2, Total 22. Jan 2009: Bonds 34, C&I 5, Commercial paper 3, Total 42. Feb 2009: Bonds 58, C&I -20, Commercial paper -20, Total 18. Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; Thomson Financial; Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Components of Net Equity Issuance Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2005 to 2008. Data are monthly rate, nonfinancial firms. There are four series, "Public issuance", "Private issuance", "Repurchases", and "Cash mergers". There is also a "Total" series presented as a line chart which sums the total of the other series. Approximate values are: 2005: Private issuance 5, Public issuance 5, Repurchases -28, Cash mergers -14, Total -32. 2006: Private issuance 10, Public issuance 5, Repurchases -38, Cash mergers -22, Total -45. 2007: Private issuance 18, Public issuance 2, Repurchases -42, Cash mergers -39, Total -61. 2008:H1: Private issuance 19, Public issuance 1.5, Repurchases -36, Cash mergers -12, Total 27.5. 2008:Q3: Private issuance 19.5, Public issuance 1.5, Repurchases -36, Cash mergers -14, Total -30. 2008:Q4e: Private issuance 19, Public issuance 2, Repurchases -19.5, Cash mergers -18.5, Total -17. Note: e Staff estimate. Source: Thomson Financial, Investment Benchmark Report; Money Tree Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, National Venture Capital Association, and Venture Economics. Commercial Real Estate Figure: Commercial Mortgage Debt Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2000 to 2008:Q4. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 12 and generally decreases to about 7 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 16 by the beginning of 2006, and generally decreases to about 9.5 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 15.5 by the end of 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 1.5. Source: Federal Reserve. Figure: Prices of Commercial Real Estate Line chart, 1994 to 2009:Q4. Index, 2001: Q1=100. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 75 and generally increases to about 98 by the beginning of 1997. It then generally increases to about 200 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to end at about 170. Source: NCREIF; MIT Center for Real Estate. Figure: Sales of Commercial Real Estate Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2001 to February p 2009. There are two series, "3-month moving average" and "Monthly". They track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 8 and generally increase to about 32 by the end of 2006. They then generally increase to about 120 by the beginning of 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 8. Note: The February 2009 value is preliminary. Source: Real Capital Analytics. Figure: Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages Line chart, by percent, 1997 to 2009. There are three series, "At commercial banks", "CMBS", and "At life insurance companies". At commercial banks begins at about 3.3 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by the end of 1998. It then generally increases to about 1.9 by the end of 2001, and generally decreases to about 1 by the beginning of 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 5.3 by 2009:Q4. CMBS begins at about 0.4 by the beginning of 1999. It then generally increases to about 1.9 by the end of 2003, and generally decreases to about 0.3 by mid-2007. It then generally increases to end at about 1.6 by February. At life insurance companies begins at about 2.3 and generally decreases to about 0.1 by the end of 2001. It then generally remains about constant to end at about 0.1 by 2009:Q4. Note: CMBS are commercial mortgage-backed securities. At commercial banks excludes farmland. Source: Citigroup; Call Report; ACLI. Figure: Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages at Banks Line chart, by percent, 2007:Q1 to 2008:Q4. Data are quarterly. There are three series, "Residential construction", "Commercial construction", and "Existing properties". Residential construction begins at about 2.5 and generally increases to end at about 17.2. Commercial construction begins at about 1.9 and generally increases to end at about 9. Existing properties begins at about 1.7 and remains about constant until about the beginning of 2007:Q4. It then generally increases to end at about 2.8. Note: Data series for residential and commercial construction begin in 2007:Q1. Existing properties include nonresidential and multifamily. Source: Call Report. Figure: Commercial Mortgage CDS Index Prices Line chart, by percent, April 2007 to March 5, 2009. CMBX.NA. Data are daily, by rating. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Senior AAA", "Junior AAA", and "BBB-". Senior AAA begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 84 by mid-March 2008. It then generally increases to about 95 by mid-May 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 62. It is at about 70 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Junior AAA begins at about 99 by January 2008, and generally decreases to about 77 by March 2008. It then generally increases to about 90 by May 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 30. It is at about 40 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. BBB- begins at about 101 and generally decreases to about 30 by March 2008. It then generally increases to about 48 by May 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 10. It is at about 20 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Each index corresponds to pools of mortgages securitized in 2006:H1. Source: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Residential Mortgages Figure: Mortgage Rate and MBS Yield Line chart, by percent, October 2006 to March 11, 2009. Data are weekly. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "MBS yield" and "30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgage rate". MBS yield begins at about 5.75 and generally increases to about 6.8 by June 2007. It then generally decreases to about 5.1 by the end of March 2008, and generally increases to about 6.1 by the beginning of August. It then generally decreases to about 3.7 by mid-January, and generally increases to end at about 4.2. It is at about 4.0 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 30-year conforming fixed-rate begins at about 6.3 and generally increases to about 6.7 by mid-June 2007. It then generally decreases to about 5.5 by the end of January 2008, and generally increases to about 6.6 by the end of July 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 5.0. It is at about 5.1 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: For MBS yield, Fannie Mae 30-year current coupon rate. Source: For conforming, Freddie Mac; for MBS yield, Bloomberg. Figure: Spread of Mortgage Rate to Treasury Yield Line chart, October 2006 to March 11, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are weekly. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 170 and generally increases to about 255 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 215 by June 2008, and generally increases to about 300 by the beginning of January. It then generally decreases to end at about 215. It is at about 250 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Spread is of 30-year conforming fixed mortgage rate relative to the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield. Source: Bloomberg; Freddie Mac. Figure: Agency and Non-Agency MBS Issuance Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2002 to 2009. Data are monthly rate. There are three series, "GSEs", "Ginnie Mae", and "Non-agency". Approximate values are: 2002: Non-agency 25, Ginnie Mae 23, GSEs 102. 2003: Non-agency 48, Ginnie Mae 7, GSEs 165. 2004: Non-agency 55, Ginnie Mae 20, GSEs 75. 2005: Nonagency 90, Ginnie Mae 10, GSEs 65. 2006: Non-agency 85, Ginnie Mae 13, GSEs 62. 2007:H1: Non-agency 80, Ginnie Mae 10, GSEs 80. 2007:H2: Non-agency 25, Ginnie Mae 15, GSEs 85. 2008:H1: Ginnie Mae 20, GSEs 90. 2008:Q3: Ginnie Mae 25, GSEs 60. October 2008: Ginnie Mae 26, GSEs 44. November 2008: Ginnie Mae 25, GSEs 35. December 2008: Ginnie Mae 24, GSEs 51. January 2009: Ginnie Mae 25, GSEs 30. Source: For agency issuance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae; for non-agency, Inside Mortgage Finance. Figure: Mortgage Debt Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2001 to 2008:Q4. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 9 and generally increases to about 12 by mid-2001. It then generally decreases to about 9 by the end of 2001, and generally increases to about 15.5 by mid-2003. It then generally decreases to about 7 by the end of 2006, and generally decreases to end at about -1.5. Source: Federal Reserve. Figure: Prices of Existing Homes Line chart, by percent change from a year earlier, 2002 to January 2009. Data are monthly. There are three series, "FHFA price index", "LoanPerformance price index", and "20-city S&P/Case-Shiller price index". FHFA begins at about 6 and generally increases to about 10 by the end of 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about -9 by December 2008. LoanPerformance begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 15.5 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about -11. 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller begins at about 7 and generally increases to about 13 by the beginning of 2003. It then generally decreases to about 10 by mid-2003, and generally increases to about 17 by mid-2004. It then generally decreases to end at about -19 by December 2008. Source: For FHFA, Federal Housing Finance Agency; for S&P/Case-Shiller, Standard & Poor's; for LoanPerformance, First American CoreLogic. Figure: Delinquencies on Mortgages Line chart, by percent of loans, 2001 to January 2009. Data are monthly. There are three series, "Subprime", "Alt-A", and "Prime". Subprime and Alt-A are among securitized loans only. Subprime begins at about 8 and generally decreases to about 6 by mid-2005. It then generally increases to end at about 27. Alt-A begins at about 1 and generally decreases to about .5 by mid-2005. It then generally increases to about 15. Prime begins at about 1 and remains about constant until about mid-2007. It then generally increases to end at about 4. Note: Percent of loans 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure. Prime includes near-prime mortgages. January 2009 values for Subprime and Alt-A are preliminary. Source: For subprime and alt-A, LoanPerformance, a division of First American CoreLogic; for prime, McDash. Consumer Credit and Household Wealth Figure: Delinquencies on Consumer Loans Line chart, by percent, 1998 to January 2009. There are three series, "Credit card loans in securitized pools", "Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks", and "Auto loans at captive finance companies". Credit card loans in securitized pools begins at about 5.3 and generally decreases to about 4.5 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 5.4 by 2003, and generally decreases to about 3.2 by the beginning of 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 5.8. Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks begins at about 3.05 and generally increases to about 3.1 by the beginning of 1999. It then generally decreases to about 2.1 by the end of 2005, and generally increases to end at about 3.2 by 2008:Q4. Auto loans at captive finance companies begins at about 3.2 and generally decreases to about 2.2 by the end of 1999. It then generally increases to about 2.9 by 2001, and generally decreases to about 2.9 by 2004. It then generally increases to end at about 3. Source: For auto loans, Federal Reserve; for credit cards, Moody's Investors Service; for nonrevolving consumer loans, Call Report. Figure: Consumer Loan Rates Line chart, by percent, 2001 to 2009. Data are weekly. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Variable-rate credit cards" and "New auto loans". Variable-rate credit cards begins at about 17 and generally decreases to about 13 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 14.8 by the end of 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 10.8 by March 11. It is at about 10.8 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. New auto loans begins at about 8 and generally decreases to about 4.2 by the end of 2001. It then generally increases to about 7.8 by mid-2002, and generally decreases to about 4.9 by the beginning of 2003. It generally increases to about 8.1 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about 4.8 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 8 by the beginning of 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 6 by March 1. It is at about 7.2 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: For credit cards, Bankrate, Inc.; for auto, PIN. Figure: Consumer Credit Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2004 to January 2009. Data are 3-month change. There are two series, "Revolving" and "Nonrevolving". Revolving begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 0 by mid-2004. It then generally increases to about 9 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about 4 by early 2008. It generally increases to about 6 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about -5. Nonrevolving begins at about 6 and generally decreases to end at about -1. Source: Federal Reserve. Figure: AAA ABS Spreads over Swaps Line chart, August 2007 to March 6, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are weekly. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "3-year FFELP student loan", "2-year credit card", and "2-year auto". 3-year FFELP student loan begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 100 by the end of April 2008. It then generally decreases to about 50 by the end of June 2008, and generally increases to about 350 by December 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 190. It is at about 200 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 2-year credit card begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 105 by the beginning of May 2008. It then generally decreases to about 50 by the end of June 2008, and generally increases to about 550 by the beginning of January. It then generally decreases to end at about 300. It is at about 320 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. 2-year auto begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 150 by the beginning of April 2008. It then generally decreases to about 90 by July 2008, generally increases to about 450 by November, and generally decreases to end at about 265. It is at about 350 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Source: For credit cards and auto, Citigroup Global Markets; for student loans, Merrill Lynch. Net Flows into Mutual Funds (Billions of dollars, monthly rate) 2008 Fund type 2009 2007 H1 Total long-term funds Equity funds Q3 Q4 Jan. Assets Feb.e Jan. 18.6 12.1 -34.3 -65.5 25.3 -17.4 5,516 7.7 -3.4 -34.5 -37.6 9.0 -29.7 3,439 Domestic -3.9 -4.8 -18.5 -23.0 6.9 -17.8 2,645 International 11.6 1.4 -16.0 -14.6 2.2 -11.9 794 Hybrid funds 1.8 1.3 -2.7 -7.1 -0.4 -4.7 477 Bond funds 9.0 14.2 2.9 -20.8 16.7 17.0 1,601 High-yield -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 3.1 1.4 119 8.4 11.5 1.8 -16.6 9.7 11.3 1,126 Other taxable Municipals Money market funds 0.9 2.9 1.4 -4.6 3.9 4.4 355 62.5 56.1 -7.2 127.2 64.5 -9.8 3,905 Note: Excludes reinvested dividends. e Staff estimate. Return to table Source: Investment Company Institute. Treasury Finance Figure: Foreign Participation in Treasury Auctions Line chart, by percent of total issue, 2000 to 2009. Data are 6-month moving average. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Indirect bids" and "Actual foreign allotment". Indirect bids begins at about 28 by the end of 2003 and generally increases to about 44 by the beginning of 2005. It then generally decreases to about 30 by mid-2005, and generally increases to about 38 by the beginning of 2006. It then generally decreases to about 25 by mid-2008, and generally increases to end at about 31 by March 2. It is at about 30.5 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Actual foreign allotment begins at about 9.5 and generally increases to about 25 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 17 by mid-2005 and remains about constant to end at about 19.5 by March 16. It is at about 19 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Indirect bids and actual allotment are a percentage of the total amount accepted, including the amount tendered to the Federal Reserve. Moving averages include 2-, 5-, and 10-year original auctions and reopenings. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Foreign Custody Holdings Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to March 4, 2009. Data are weekly average. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Treasury" and "Agency". Treasury begins at about 700 and generally increases to end at about 1750. It is at about 1745 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Agency begins at about 180 and generally increases to about 1000 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 850. It is at about 850 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Securities held in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on behalf of foreign official institutions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Figure: Treasury Bid-Asked Spread Line chart showing the 2-year on-the-run Treasury notes, by cents per $100 face value, January 2007 to March 11, 2009. Data are 5-day moving average. The series begins at about 0.85 and generally increases to about 1.08 by the beginning of January 2008. It then generally decreases to about 0.88 by the beginning of September, and generally increases to about 1.4 by October. It then generally decreases to about 0.95 by November, and generally increases to about 1.65 by January 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.95. Source: BrokerTec Interdealer Market Data. Figure: Average Absolute Nominal Yield Curve Fitting Error Line chart, 2001 to March 11, 2009. Unit is Basis points. Data are daily. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 2 by 2007, except for late 2001 when it peaks at about 13.5 and mid-2003 when it peaks at about 7. From 2007 it generally increases to about 23 by the end of 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 13.5. It is at about 17 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Calculated from securities with 2 to 10 years until maturity, excluding on-the-run and first off-the-run securities. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure: Daily Treasury Market Volume and Turnover Line chart, 2000 to March 2009. Data are monthly averages. There are two series, "Daily trading volume", which is by billions of Dollars and "Daily Turnover", which is by ratio. These two series use two different scales. Daily trading volume begins at about 85 and generally increases to about 240 by the beginning of 2007. It then generally decreases to about 120 by 2007, and generally increases to about 285 by the beginning of 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 90. Daily turnover begins at about 1 and generally increases at about 5.4 by the end of 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 1. Note: March observation is the month-to-date average. Source: BrokerTec Interdealer Market Data. Figure: Treasury On-the-Run Premium Line chart showing the 10-year note, 2001 to March 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are monthly average. The January 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 30 by early 2002. It then generally decreases to about 5 by late 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 60. It is at about 61 at the time of the January 2009 FOMC meeting. Note: Computed as the spread of the yield read from an estimated off-the-run yield curve over the on-the-run Treasury yield. March observation is the month-to-date average. Source: Board staff estimates. State and Local Government Finance Gross Offerings of Municipal Securities (Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted) 2008 Type of security 2005 2006 H1 Total Long-term 2009 2007 H2 Jan. Feb. 38.4 Refundings 2 New capital 40.4 41.6 32.8 25.7 24.3 34.2 1 36.1 32.5 35.5 38.0 26.3 23.3 22.8 15.6 10.6 12.6 17.9 10.8 8.2 9.7 18.6 21.9 22.9 20.1 15.5 15.1 13.2 4.2 3.7 4.9 3.6 6.5 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.7 .8 .4 Short-term Memo: Long-term taxable 1. Includes issues for public and private purposes. Return to table 2. All issues that include any refunding bonds. Return to table Source: Thomson Financial. Figure: Ratings Changes Bar chart, by number of ratings changes, 1991 to 2008:Q4. Data are annual rate. There are two series, "Upgrades" and "Downgrades". Upgrades begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 500 by 1992. It then generally decreases to about 150 by 1993, and generally increases to about 1050 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 550 by 2002, and generally increases to about 2200 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 1700 by 2008:H1, and generally increases to end at about 2600. It is at about 2205 by 2008:Q3. Downgrades begins at about 650 and generally decreases to about 100 by 1997. It then generally increases to about 1400 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 150. It is at about 100 by 2008:H1 and at about 105 by 2008:Q3. Note: Recent upgrades reflect S&P's change of rating standard. Source: S&P's Credit Week Municipal; S&P's Ratings Direct. Figure: Municipal Bond Yields Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are two series, "20-year general obligation" and "7-day SIFMA swap index". 20-year general obligation begins at about 4.5 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 4 by the end of 2006. It then generally increases to about 6 by the end of 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 5 by March 5. 7-day SIFMA swap index begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 4 by mid-2006. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by the beginning of 2008, and generally increases to about 8 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.7 by March 4. Note: SIFMA is the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. Source: Municipal Market Advisors; Bond Buyer. Figure: Municipal Bond Yield Ratio Line chart showing 20-year, by ratio, 1994 to March 5, 2009. General Obligation over Treasury. Data are weekly. The series begins at about 0.82 and generally increases to about 0.99 by mid-2005. It then generally decreases to about 0.87 by early 2007, generally increases to about 1.88 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 1.24. Source: Bond Buyer. M2 Monetary Aggregate (Based on seasonally adjusted data) Percent change (annual rate) 1 Aggregate and components 2008 2007 Q3 M2 2009 2008 Q4 Jan. Feb. Level (billions of dollars), Feb. 5.8 8.5 4.8 14.8 13.2 4.6 8,276 Currency 2.0 5.8 7.1 13.8 17.3 15.3 835 Liquid deposits3 4.1 7.0 3.9 9.8 19.7 12.0 5,005 Small time deposits 4.3 10.6 10.5 33.4 -.5 -8.0 1,360 20.6 15.5 1.0 16.4 -1.8 -21.4 1,070 40.2 24.5 9.5 8.4 43.7 8.9 2,495 2.0 70.4 16.4 252.0 36.1 -90.1 1,573 Components 2 Retail money market funds Memo: Institutional money market funds Monetary base 1. For years, Q4 to Q4; for quarters and months, calculated from corresponding average levels. Return to table 2. Nonbank traveler's checks are not listed. Return to table 3. Sum of demand deposits, other checkable deposits, and savings deposits. Return to table Source: Federal Reserve. Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted) Type of credit Total 2007 2008 H1 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Jan. 2009 Feb. 2009 Level1 Feb. 2009 11.1 3.8 3.0 2.5 6.5 -7.7 -.5 9,472 11.5 3.7 5.3 1.8 2.3 -10.5 3.0 7,133 Loans2 Total To businesses Commercial and industrial 19.1 13.2 12.6 7.4 18.1 -7.9 -7.7 1,562 Commercial real estate 10.7 6.2 9.6 3.7 1.7 -5.5 -1.0 1,724 6.5 -2.4 -.7 -7.4 -.9 -6.7 16.0 2,103 To households Residential real estate Revolving home equity 6.2 12.8 12.2 12.0 12.8 7.7 3.6 596 Other 6.6 -7.2 -4.8 -14.1 -5.9 -12.3 20.8 1,507 Consumer 6.5 7.7 7.7 8.9 5.8 17.5 11.6 901 5.9 6.4 7.8 5.9 3.5 10.5 3.7 1,311 19.4 -4.3 -1.4 3.5 -17.9 -60.8 -9.3 844 9.9 4.1 -4.0 4.9 19.8 .9 -11.3 2,339 -5.4 19.0 -.7 20.9 53.9 -10.2 -20.3 1,382 32.0 -11.2 -7.5 -12.2 -19.5 17.7 2.0 957 Originated 3 Other 4 Securities Total Treasury and agency Other 5 Note: Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. The bank credit data incorporate revised seasonal factors. In addition, the data have been adjusted to remove the effects of nonbank structure activity of at least $5 billion (previously, the threshold was around $80 billion), resulting in downward revisions to the estimated annual growth of bank credit, concentrated in the real estate and consumer loan components. Data have also been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FAS 115), the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46), and the initial adoption of fair value accounting (FAS 159). Data also account for breaks caused by reclassifications. 1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Return to table 2. Excludes interbank loans. Return to table 3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. Return to table 4. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. Return to table 5. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or agency securities. Return to table Source: Federal Reserve. Figure: Measures of Profitability, All Banks Line chart, by percent, 1985 to 2009. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "ROA" and "ROE". These two series use two different scales. ROA begins at about 0.7 and generally decreases to about -1.6 by 1987. It then generally increases to about 1.1 by early 1989, and generally decreases to about -0.1 by late 1989. It then generally increases to about 1.5 by the end of 2006, and generally decreases to end at about -0.8. ROE begins at about 10 and generally decreases to about -25 by 1987. It then generally increases to about 17 by early 1989, and generally decreases to about -2 by late 1989. It then generally increases to about 16 by 1992, and remains about constant until early 2007, and decreases to end at about -13. Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Source: Call Report. Figure: Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates Line chart, by percent, 1985 to 2009. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Charge-off rate" and "Delinquency rate". These two series use two different scales. Charge-off rate begins at about 0.8 and generally increases to about 1.65 by 1991. It then generally decreases to about 0.45 by late 1994, and generally increases to about 1.2 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 0.45 by early 2006, and generally increases to end at about 1.9. Delinquency rate begins at about 4.8 and generally increases to about 6.2 by early 1991. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by early 2005, and generally increases to end at about 4.5. Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Source: Call Report. Figure: Growth in Unused Commitments Line chart, by percent, 1990 to 2009. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 22, and generally decreases to about -1 by late 1990. It then generally increases to about 27 by early 1995, and generally decreases to about -9 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 17 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about -33. Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted and at an annual rate. Source: Call Report. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts† International Developments Trade in Goods and Services Annual rate Monthly rate 2008 2008 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct. Nov. Dec. Percent change Nominal BOP Exports -1.8 22.9 11.9 -41.4 -2.3 -6.0 -6.0 Imports -7.1 18.1 6.2 -48.0 -1.6 -11.9 -5.5 Exports -1.8 12.3 3.0 -23.6 … … … Imports -7.1 -7.3 -3.5 -16.0 … … … -677.1 -726.5 -712.3 -554.9 -57.2 -41.6 -39.9 -821.2 -871.5 -865.0 -697.7 -69.6 -53.3 -51.6 12.4 11.7 11.6 Real NIPA Billions of dollars Nominal BOP Net exports Goods, net Services, net 144.1 145.0 152.7 142.8 n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Return to table BOP Balance of payments. Return to table NIPA National income and product accounts. Return to table Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade In Goods and Services (Quarterly) Figure: Trade Balance Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to December 2008. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about -210 and generally decreases to about -401 by late 2000. It then generally increases to about -350 by late 2001, and generally decreases to about -800 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 570. December 2008 is marked at about -480. Figure: Contribution of Net Exports to Growth of Real Gross Domestic Product Bar chart, by percentage points, annual rate, 1999 to 2008. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about -1.6 and generally increases to about 0.2 by the end of 1999. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by early 2000 and generally increases to about 0.5 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by late 2002, and generally increases to about 0.5 by mid-2003. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by 2004, and generally increases to about 0.75 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about -1.3 by late 2005, and generally increases to about 1.4 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to about -1.3 by early 2007, generally increases to about 2.9 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -0.5. Figure: Selected Exports Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to 2008. Data are quarterly. There are four series, "Capital goods ex. aircraft", "Industrial supplies", "Consumer goods", and "Aircraft". Capital goods begins at about 249 and generally increases to about 325 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 240 by early 2002, and generally increases to end at about 320. Industrial supplies begins at about 125 and generally increases to about 160 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 140 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 405 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 300. Consumer goods begins at about 75 and generally increases to about 90 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 85 by early 2002. It then generally increases to end at about 165. Aircraft begins at about 55 and fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 70. Figure: Selected Imports Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to 2008. Data are quarterly. There are four series, "Capital goods", "Consumer goods", "Industrial supplies", and "Oil". Capital goods begins at about 275 and generally increases to about 365 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 275 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 475 by mid-2008. It generally decreases to end at about 425. Consumer goods begins at about 282 and generally increases to about 295 by the end of 2000. It then generally decreases to about 280 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 500 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 458. Industrial supplies begins at about 140 and generally increases to about 190 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 150 by early 2002, generally increases to about 345 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 280. Oil begins at about 44 and generally increases to about 125 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 80 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 540 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 380. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (Billions of dollars; annual rate, balance of payments basis) Change 1 Levels 2008 Q3 Exports of goods and services Goods exports Gold Other goods Capital goods 2008 Q4 Nov. 2008 Dec. 2008 Q4 Nov. Dec. 1955.1 1710.3 1707.9 1605.6 54.2 -244.8 -109.5 -102.2 1385.1 1161.9 1164.5 1064.7 36.9 -223.2 17.7 13.4 13.3 12.5 1367.3 1148.5 1151.2 1052.2 488.1 442.3 438.7 432.2 Aircraft & parts 91.4 71.3 62.9 Computers & accessories 46.4 38.9 38.3 Semiconductors 53.6 44.4 296.7 Automotive Ind. supplies (ex. ag., gold) Other capital goods Q3 -1.3 -92.0 -99.9 -4.4 -1.0 -.8 38.2 -218.8 -91.0 -99.0 -17.5 -6.5 7.2 -45.8 89.8 .4 -20.2 1.8 27.0 37.1 -.7 -7.4 -3.1 -1.2 46.2 37.0 2.1 -9.2 -3.6 -9.2 287.8 291.3 268.3 5.4 -8.9 -12.5 -23.1 131.3 106.9 107.6 92.5 7.7 -24.4 -13.1 -15.1 399.4 296.9 298.9 247.5 19.4 -102.5 -45.3 -51.4 Consumer goods 169.4 154.7 157.0 147.3 5.5 -14.7 -2.8 -9.7 Agricultural 128.1 100.1 100.2 89.1 .0 -28.0 -10.8 -11.0 51.0 47.6 48.9 43.6 -1.7 -3.3 -51.9 -5.3 570.1 548.4 543.3 541.0 17.3 -21.7 -17.6 -2.4 All other goods Services exports Imports of goods and services Goods imports Oil 2250.1 1859.6 1804.0 1683.5 528.9 Gold Other goods Capital goods Aircraft & parts Computers & accessories Semiconductors Other capital goods 2667.5 2265.2 2206.9 2084.8 334.9 287.0 267.7 12.7 6.6 6.7 4.8 1708.5 1518.1 1510.3 1411.0 40.0 -402.3 -297.0 -122.1 30.4 -390.5 -287.3 -120.5 31.3 -194.0 -163.0 .1 -6.1 -19.3 -1.7 -2.0 -1.0 -190.4 -122.6 -99.2 464.9 424.6 421.7 403.4 -5.3 -40.3 -27.1 -18.2 34.3 32.3 30.9 34.4 -3.9 -2.0 -.6 3.5 103.3 86.6 85.9 78.2 -6.1 -16.7 -9.7 -7.8 26.2 23.1 22.9 20.7 -.8 -3.1 -3.0 -2.2 301.2 282.7 282.0 270.2 5.4 -18.5 -13.8 -11.8 Automotive 232.5 195.5 197.1 178.7 -17.1 -36.9 -13.8 -18.4 Ind. supplies (ex. oil, gold) 343.7 286.0 291.2 242.2 12.7 -57.7 -33.5 -49.0 Consumer goods 500.6 455.3 443.2 437.3 6.0 -45.3 -42.2 -5.9 Foods, feeds, beverages 91.9 88.3 87.3 85.2 1.7 -3.6 -5.1 -2.1 All other goods 75.0 68.3 69.9 64.2 1.1 -6.6 -1.0 -5.6 417.4 405.6 402.8 401.3 9.6 -11.8 -9.8 -1.5 12.21 13.36 11.94 14.78 -.20 1.15 -1.37 2.84 118.34 69.36 65.82 49.59 8.38 -48.98 -26.74 -16.23 Services imports Memo: Oil quantity (mb/d) Oil import price ($/bbl) 1. Change from previous quarter or month. Return to table Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau. Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports Figure: Merchandise Imports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Core goods" and "Non-oil goods". Core goods begins at about -1.9 and generally increases to about 1.9 by mid-2000. It then generally decreases to about -3.9 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 4 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1 by 2006, and generally increases to about 8.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0. Non-oil goods begins at about -2.5 and generally increases to about 2.2 by early 2001. It generally decreases to about -5.2 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 8 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -0.5. Figure: Categories of Core Imports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Material-intensive goods" and "Finished goods". Material-intensive goods begins at about -4.9 and generally increases to about 7 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -10 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 14 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 5 by 2005, and generally increases to about 19 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -4.8. Finished goods begins at about -0.1 and remains about constant until about early 2002. It then generally increases to about 3 by mid-2005, and generally decreases to about 0 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 3. Figure: Oil Line chart, by dollars per barrel, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Spot West Texas intermediate" and "Import unit value". The two series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 13 and generally increase to about 35 by late 2000. They then generally decrease to about 20 by late 2001, and generally increase to about 75 by 2006. They then generally decrease to about 55 by early 2007, and generally increase to about 135 by 2008. They then generally decrease to end at about 40. Figure: Natural Gas Line chart, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Import price Index", which is by 2000=100, and "Spot Henry Hub", which is by dollars per million Btu. These two series use two different scales. Import price Index begins at about 55 and generally increases to end at about 160. The series contains about 4 peaks. One at about 220 by early 2001, the second at about 195 by early 2003, the third at about 275 by late 2005, and the fourth at about 290 by mid-2008. Spot Henry Hub begins at about 2 and generally increases to end at about 5. The series contains about 4 peaks. One at about 9.5 by late 2000, the second at about 9 by early 2003, the third at about 14.5 by late 2005, and the fourth at about 14 by mid-2008. Figure: Merchandise Exports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Core goods" and "Total goods". These 2 series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about -2 and generally increase to about 3 by early 2000. They then generally decrease to about -2.5 by early 2002, and generally increase to about 5.9 by 2004. They then generally decrease to about 3 by early 2006 and generally increase to about 13 by mid-2008. They then generally decrease to end at about -3.9. Figure: Categories of Core Exports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Material-intensive goods" and "Finished goods". Material-intensive goods begins at about -5.5 and generally increases to about 7 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about -6 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 14 by mid-2004. It then generally increases to about 24.5 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about -11. Finished goods begins at about 0 and remains about constant until about early 2003 when it is still about 0. It then generally increases to end at about 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wall Street Journal; Commodity Research Bureau. Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports (Percentage change from previous period) Annual rate Monthly rate 2008 Q2 Q3 2008 Q4 Nov. 2009 Dec. Jan. BLS prices Merchandise imports 36.6 4.1 -47.8 -7.3 -5.0 -1.1 152.1 5.8 -93.3 -29.9 -27.2 -2.4 12.9 3.3 -11.9 -1.7 -1.1 -.8 13.3 6.1 -11.5 -2.0 -1.3 -.9 5.3 2.3 -.9 -.4 -.1 .2 Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 8.7 4.4 -.2 -.4 -.1 .5 Automotive products 2.3 1.2 -.9 -.5 -.1 .2 Consumer goods 4.9 1.4 -1.4 -.5 .0 .0 31.4 13.8 -29.2 -5.1 -3.8 -3.4 Foods, feeds, beverages 19.1 11.1 -16.6 -4.5 2.2 .0 Industrial supplies ex. fuels 35.0 14.5 -32.4 -5.3 -5.5 -4.6 -3.9 -8.2 -7.2 -.7 -.7 -.7 Oil Non-oil Core goods1 Finished goods Material-intensive goods Computers Semiconductors Natural gas -4.9 -6.5 -2.0 -.4 .9 -3.1 149.9 -25.1 -69.3 -3.8 -.1 -8.0 Merchandise exports 10.2 3.8 -21.5 -3.2 -2.2 .5 Core goods2 12.5 5.2 -24.8 -3.8 -2.7 .8 3.2 2.8 1.5 -.3 .0 .8 Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 4.0 3.3 1.7 -.2 .1 1.0 Automotive products 1.8 1.2 1.1 -.1 -.1 .3 Consumer goods 2.1 3.0 1.2 -.8 -.1 .7 Material-intensive goods 23.2 7.7 -46.1 -7.8 -5.9 .7 Agricultural products 14.4 5.8 -53.0 -6.8 -6.2 6.2 Industrial supples ex. ag. 26.8 8.5 -44.5 -8.2 -5.9 -1.2 Finished goods Computers Semiconductors -9.1 -8.8 -8.6 -.3 -1.1 -1.1 -.8 -6.5 -14.0 -.2 -.6 -3.0 NIPA prices Chain price index Imports of goods & services 28.8 9.2 -37.1 … … … 11.2 2.9 -9.7 … … … 10.6 4.6 -8.3 … … … 10.8 6.7 -21.9 … … … Total merchandise 12.3 5.6 -24.2 … … … Core goods2 13.9 6.6 -25.6 … … … Non-oil merchandise Core goods1 Exports of goods & services 1. Excludes computers, semiconductors, and natural gas. Return to table 2. Excludes computers and semiconductors. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics. Return to table NIPA National income and product accounts. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics. Summary of U.S. International Transactions (Billions of dollars; not seasonally adjusted except as noted) 2008 2007 Q1 Official financial flows 1. Change in foreign official assets in the U.S. (increase, +) a. G-10 countries + ECB b. OPEC c. All other countries 2. Change in U.S. official assets (decrease, +) 1 Private financial flows 2009 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec. Jan. 386.9 -133.6 178.2 101.0 -113.4 -2993 -48.2 187.7 411.0 401.0 173.5 145.3 113.0 -30.7 -1.2 21.6 36.8 -8.4 -1.6 0.3 8.9 -16.0 -1.2 -10.7 33.0 48.3 16.7 16.0 16.6 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 341.3 361.1 158.3 129.0 87.5 -13.7 1.5 34.7 -24.1 -534.6 4.7 -44.3 -226.4 -268.7 -47.0 166.1 387.5 664.3 12.2 21.9 248.6 n.a. … … -81.7 -15.1 -168.5 -92.1 -53.9 299.5 54.1 -63.9 746.4 124.4 41.8 76.7 2.5 3.4 -1.0 -85.0 Banks 3. Change in net foreign positions of banking offices in the U.S. 2 Securities3 4. Foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. securities a. Treasury securities 152.5 316.8 58.9 60.0 88.9 108.9 -0.1 -43.3 19.4 -205.9 -18.0 -32.8 -54.6 -100.5 -36.7 -26.2 c. Corporate and municipal bonds 383.5 3.6 -11.9 50.2 -34.4 -0.3 35.5 -15.1 d. Corporate stocks 4 191.1 9.9 12.8 -0.7 2.6 -4.7 0.3 -0.5 b. Agency bonds 5. U.S. net acquisitions (-) of foreign securities -292.1 80.1 -44.4 -38.6 84.3 78.8 11.1 -27.4 a. Bonds -172.9 76.3 -16.9 -16.7 70.1 39.8 12.1 -28.1 b. Stock purchases -107.9 7.5 -26.6 -19.9 14.1 39.9 -1.0 2.7 -11.3 -3.6 -0.8 -2.0 0.0 -0.8 0.0 -1.9 -333.3 n.a. -89.1 -84.0 -56.9 n.a. … … 237.5 n.a. 80.4 105.3 66.1 n.a. … … 6.5 n.a. -8.0 -2.4 -4.1 n.a. … … 9. Foreign acquisitions of U.S. currency -10.7 n.a. -0.9 0.2 5.8 n.a. … … 10. Other (inflow, +) 6 114.8 n.a. 200.8 56.8 204.7 n.a. … … -731.2 n.a. -175.6 -180.9 -174.1 n.a. … … -1.8 n.a. -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 n.a. … … -41.3 n.a. -14.1 58.7 39.5 n.a. … … c. Stock swaps 4 Other flows 5 6. U.S. direct investment (-) abroad 7. Foreign direct investment in the U.S. 8. Net derivatives (inflow, +) U.S. current account balance7 Capital account balance8 Statistical discrepancy 7 Note: Data in lines 1 through 5 differ in timing and coverage from the balance of payments data published by the Department of Commerce. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Includes changes in U.S. official reserve assets and in outstanding reciprocal currency swaps with certain foreign central banks. Return to table 2. Changes in dollar-denominated positions of all depository institutions and bank holding companies plus certain transactions between broker-dealers and unaffiliated foreigners (particularly borrowing and lending under repurchase agreements). Includes changes in custody liabilities other than U.S. Treasury bills. Return to table 3. Includes commissions on securities transactions and therefore does not match exactly the data on U.S. international transactions published by the Department of Commerce. Return to table 4. Includes (4d) or represents (5c) stocks acquired through nonmarket means such as mergers and reincorporations. Return to table 5. Quarterly data; seasonally adjusted. Return to table 6. Transactions by nonbanking concerns and other banking and official transactions not shown elsewhere plus amounts resulting from adjustments made by the Department of Commerce and revisions (in lines 1 through 5 and 8) since publication of the quarterly data in the Survey of Current Business. Return to table 7. Seasonally adjusted. Return to table 8. Seasonally adjusted; consists of transactions in nonproduced nonfinancial assets and capital transfers. Return to table G-10 Group of Ten (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kindom, United States). Return to table ECB European Central Bank. Return to table OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments. Foreign Official Financial Inflows (+) through January 2009 (Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted) Figure: Total Line chart, 2004 to 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 59 and generally decreases to about 2 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 62 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about -30 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 100 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about -15 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 22. 6-month moving average begins at about 35 and generally decreases to about 18 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 50 by early 2007, and generally decreases to about 19 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 55 by early 2008 and generally decreases to end at about 10. Figure: Treasury Securities Line chart, 2004 to 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 35 and generally decreases to about -8 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about 35 by early 2006, and generally decreases to about -38 by 2007. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 75 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 24. 6-month moving average begins at about 22 and generally increases to about 32 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 7 by 2005, and generally increases to about 20 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about -3 by late 2007, and generally increases to end at about 48. Figure: Agency Securities Line chart, 2004 to 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 35 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about -2 by late 2007, and generally increases to about 38 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about -40 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 8. 6-month moving average begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 28 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 5 by late 2007, and generally increases to about 2008 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -17. Figure: Foreign Official Balances Held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Daily through March 2, 2009 Line chart, 2007 to 2009. There are two series, "Treasury securities" and "Agency securities". Treasury securities begins at about 1150 and generally increases to about 1210 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 1190 by 2007, and generally increases to end at about 1705. Agency securities begins at about 600 and generally increases to about 998 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 810. Source: U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Private Securities Flows through January 2009 (Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted) Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities Figure: Total Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 62 by mid-2003. It then generally decreases to about -16 by late 2003, and fluctuates but generally increases to about 150 by early 2007. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about -85. 6-month moving average begins at about 25 and generally increases to about 48 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about 20 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 90 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -8. Figure: Treasury Securities Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about -10 and generally increases to about 38 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about -18 by late 2003, and generally increases to about 42 by early 2005. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -40 by early 2006, and then fluctuates but generally increases to about 100 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -42. 6-month moving average begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 22 by 2003. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -10 by 2006, and generally increases to end at about 22. Figure: Agency Bonds Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about -5 by late 2003. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 20 late 2007, and continues to fluctuate but generally decreases to end at about -28. 6-month moving average begins at about 8 and generally decreases to about -8 by late 2003. It then generally increases to about 10 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about -8 by early 2007. It then generally increases to about 8 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about -22. Figure: Corporate and Municipal Bonds Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 20 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 88 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about -19 by 2008, and generally increases to about 38 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -16. 6-month moving average begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 60 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 5. Figure: Corporate Stocks Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 4 and generally increases to about 35 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about -10 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 42 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about -36 by late 2007, and generally increases to end at about 0. U.S. Net Acquisitions (-) of Foreign Securities Figure: Total Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 5 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 8 by late 2004. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -58 by late 2006, and fluctuates but generally increases to about 38 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -28. 6-month moving average begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about -40 by 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 18. Figure: Bonds Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about 4 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about -22 by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 15 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about -39 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 38 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -26. 6-month moving average begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about -22 by 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 12. Figure: Stock Purchases & Swaps Line chart, 2003 to early 2009. There are two series, "Monthly" and "6-month moving average". Monthly begins at about -8 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 15 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about -35 by late 2006, and fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 0. 6-month moving average begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about -18 by early 2006. It then generally increases to about 6 by late 2006, and generally decreases to about -18 by early 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 9. Source: For all figures, U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments. Exchange Value of the Dollar and Stock Market Indexes Percent change since January Greenbook Latest Exchange rates* Euro ($/euro) 1.2752 1.6 Yen (¥/$) 98.4 11.0 Sterling ($/£) 1.3840 0.0 Canadian dollar (C$/$) 1.2796 1.4 114.1 3.4 85.2 3.1 145.2 3.6 DJ Euro Stoxx 181.3 -9.3 TOPIX 722.3 -9.3 Nominal dollar indexes* Broad index Major currencies index OITP index Stock market indexes FTSE 100 3705.6 -8.6 S&P 500 721.2 -14.2 * Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar. Return to table Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar Line chart, 2004 to early 2009. January 5, 2004=100. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Major currencies index", "Euro", and "Yen". They begin at about 100 and track closely together until about mid-2005 when they reach about 105. Major currencies index then generally decreases to about 83 by mid-2008, and generally increases to end at about 102. Euro generally decreases to about 80 by mid-2008, and generally increases to end at about 102. Yen generally increases to about 117 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to end at about 93. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. January 22, 2009=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Major currencies index", "Euro", and "Yen". Major currencies index and Euro track closely together throughout the chart, beginning at about 100 and generally increasing to about 104 by late November 2008. Major currencies index then generally decreases to about 94, and Euro generally decreases to about 90 by December. They then generally increase to end at about 104. Yen begins at about 113 and generally decreases to about 99.5 by December 2008. It then generally increases to about 106 by early January, and generally decreases to about 100 by early February. It then generally increases to end at about 11. They are at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Figure: Stock Market Indexes Line chart, 2004 to early 2009. January 5, 2004=100. Data are weekly. There are three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". DJ Euro Stoxx begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 95 by mid-2004. It then generally increases to about 148 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 130 by mid-2006. It then generally increases to about 178 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to end at about 70. TOPIX begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 118 by early 2004. It then generally decreases to about 100 by late 2004, and generally increases to about 165 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 140 by mid-2006, and generally increases to about 170 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 110 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 138 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 68. S&P 500 begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 140 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 65. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. January 22, 2009=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". TOPIX and S&P 500 track closely together throughout the chart, beginning at about 120, and generally decreasing to about 99 by late November. They then generally increase to about 110 by early January, and generally decrease to end at about 88. DJ Euro Stoxx begins at about 129 and generally decreases to about 100 by late November. It then generally increases to about 118 by early January, and generally decreases to about 100 by late January. It then generally increases to about 109 by February, and generally decreases to end at about 90. They are at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Industrial Countries: Nominal and Real Interest Rates Percent 3-month Libor 10-year nominal Change since Jan. Greenbook Latest 10-year indexed Change since Jan. Greenbook Latest Change since Jan. Greenbook Latest Germany 1.67 -0.59 3.08 -0.03 1.57 0.11 Japan 0.62 -0.07 1.31 0.08 3.83 0.86 United Kingdom 1.89 -0.31 3.07 -0.44 1.11 -0.30 Canada 1.05 -0.48 2.99 0.26 … … United States 1.33 0.20 2.99 0.43 2.50 0.18 … Not applicable. Libor London interbank offered rate. Return to table Figure: Nominal 10-Year Government Bond Yields Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Germany", "Japan", and "United States". There are 2 different scales, Germany and United States share one and Japan uses the other. Germany begins at about 4.2 and generally decreases to about 3.95 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 4.3 by 2004, and generally decreases to about 3.05 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about 4.6 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to about 3.8 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 4.7 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3. Japan begins at about 1.3 and generally increases to about 1.9 by mid-2004. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by mid-2005, and generally increases to about 1.95 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 2 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by early 2008, and generally increases to end at about 1.2. United States begins at about 4.2 and generally increases to about 4.8 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 4 by mid-2005, and generally increases to about 5.2 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 3.4 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 4.1 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.1 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 2.95. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Germany" and "United States". Germany begins at about 3.8 and generally decreases to about 3 by early December. It then generally increases to about 3.4 by December, and generally decreases to about 2.9 by January. It then generally increases to about 3.4 by February, and generally decreases to end at about 3.05. It is at about 3.1 at time of the January 2009 Greenbook. United States begins at about 3.8 and generally decreases to about 2.1 by December. It then generally increases to about 3.05 by early February, and generally decreases to about 2.7 by mid-February. It then generally increases to end at about 3. It is at about 2.6 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Figure: Inflation-Indexed 10-Year Government Bond Yields Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "France", "Japan", and "United States". Japan first issued inflation-indexed debt in March 2004. France begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about 1 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 1.4 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 2.8 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1.8. Japan is at about 1.1 and generally decreases to about 0.2 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 1 by mid-2005, and generally decreases to about 0.8 by early 2006. It then remains about constant at about 1.1 until about early 2008 when it reaches about 1.2. It then generally increases to about 4.95 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3.9. United States begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 2.6 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 2.1 by late 2006. It then generally increases to about 2.8 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 1.1 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 3.5 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2.5. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "France", "Japan", and "United States". France begins at about 2.8 and generally decreases to about 2.2 by November. It then generally increases to about 2.6 by late November, and generally decreases to about 1.3 by January. It then generally increases to about 2 by late February, and generally decreases to end at about 1.8. It is at about 1.7 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Japan begins at about 3.4 and generally decreases to about 3 by mid-November. It then generally increases to about 5.2 by December, and generally decreases to about 2.9 by late January. It then generally increases to end at about 3.9. It is at about 2.9 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. United States begins at about 3.3 and generally increases to about 3.9 by late November. It then generally decreases to about 2.2 by mid-December, and generally increases to about 2.7 by early January. It then generally decreases to about 1.9 by mid-February, and generally increases to end at about 2.5. It is at about 2.3 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Measures of Market Volatility Figure: Dollar-Euro Options-Implied Volatility Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are two series, "1-month" and "3-month". They track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 12 and generally decrease to about 9 by late 2004. They then remain about constant until about mid-2006, and then generally decrease to about 5 by mid-2007. They then generally increase to about 12 by early 2008, and generally decrease to about 8.5 by mid-2008. They then generally increase to about 27 by late 2008, and generally decrease to end at about 16. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are two series, "1month" and "3-month". 1-month begins at about 25 and 3-month begins at about 21. They track closely together throughout the chart, generally decreasing to about 18 by December. They then generally increase to about 26 by early January, and generally decrease to end at about 16. They are at about 21 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Note: Dollar-Euro Options-Implied Volatility is derived from at-the-money options. Figure: Yen-Dollar Options Implied Volatility Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are two series, "1-month" and "3-month". They track closely together throughout the chart, beginning at about 9. They then generally increase to about 12 by 2004, and generally decrease to about 8 by late 2004. They then remain about constant until about 2006, and then generally increase to about 11 by 2006. They then generally decrease to about 6 by early 2007, and generally increase to about 18 by early 2008. Then they generally decrease to about 10 by mid-2008, and generally increase to about 34 by late 2008. They then generally decrease to end at about 18. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are two series, "1month" and "3-month". 1-month begins at about 25 and generally increases to about 27 by mid-November. It then generally decreases to about 19 by early December. 3-month begins at about 20 and remains about constant until about mid-December. The 2 series then track closely together, generally increasing to about 29 by mid-December, and generally decreasing to remain constant at about 17 until mid-January. They then generally increase to about 25 by late January, and generally decrease to end at about 17. They are at about 23 at the time of the time of January 2009 Greenbook. Note: Yen-Dollar Options Implied Volatility is derived from at-the-money options. Figure: Realized Stock Market Volatility Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". DJ Euro Stoxx begins at about 12 and generally increases to about 20 by early 2004. It then generally decreases to about 10 by late 2004 and remains about constant until mid-2006. It then generally increases to about 31 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 17 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to about 63 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 30. TOPIX begins at about 23 and generally decreases to about 15 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 24 by 2004, and generally decreases to about 10 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about 25 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about 12 by mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 38 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 22 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to about 65 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 28. S&P 500 begins at about 10 and remains about constant until about 15 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 25 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 17 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to about 73 by late 2008, and generally decreases to about 36. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". DJ Euro Stoxx begins at about 55 and generally increases to about 62 by December. It then generally decreases to about 30 by early March, and generally increases to end at about 33. It is at about 45 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. TOPIX begins at about 60 and generally increases to about 65 by late December. It then generally decreases to end at about 38. It is at about 54 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. S&P 500 begins at about 59 and generally increases to about 72 by early December. It then generally decreases to end at about 29. It is at about 45 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Note: Realized Stock Market Volatility is an annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns. Figure: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Germany", "Japan", and "United States". Germany begins at about 5 and remains about constant until mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 3 by early 2007, and generally increases to end at about 9. Germany begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about 4 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 6 by mid-2004, and generally decreases to about 3 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 5.5 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about 3 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 6 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 4. United States begins at about 7.5 and generally decreases to about 5 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 6 by mid2005, and generally decreases to about 4 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 11 by early 2008, and then generally decreases to about 7 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 16 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 13. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Germany", "Japan", and "United States". Germany begins at about 9 and remains about constant until late December. It then generally decreases to about 7 by early January, and generally increases to end at about 9. It is at about 8.5 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Japan begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about 4 by early January. It then generally increases to about 4.8 by mid-January, and remains about constant until it ends at about 4. It is at about 4 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. United States begins at about 13 and generally increases to about 16.5 by early December. It then generally decreases to about 14 by early January, and generally increases to about 15 by February. It then generally decreases to end at about 13. It is at about 14 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Note: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility is an annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns. Emerging Markets: Exchange Rates and Stock Market Indexes Exchange value of the dollar Stock market index Percent change since Latest Percent change since Latest Jan. Greenbook* Jan. Greenbook Mexico 15.2872 9.4 17544 -10.0 2.3472 -0.2 39145 1.6 2.14 -0.0 37488 6.2 China 6.8410 0.1 2139 6.7 Hong Kong 7.7554 -0.0 11931 -5.7 Korea 1501.0 9.2 1128 1.0 Taiwan 34.58 3.1 4760 12.1 Thailand 35.94 3.2 414 -5.4 Brazil Venezuela * Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar. Return to table Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar Line chart, 2004 to early 2009. January 5, 2004=100. Data are weekly. There are four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "China". Mexico begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 105 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 95 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 105 by mid-2006. It then generally decreases to about 90 by mid-2008, and generally increases to end at about 140. Brazil begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 110 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 55 by mid-2008, and generally increases to end at about 84. Korea begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 88 by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 99 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 88 by 2006. It then remains about constant until about 77 by late 2007, and generally increases to end at about 129. China begins at about 100 and remains about constant until about mid-2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 83. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. January 22, 2009=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "China". Mexico begins at about 89 and generally increases to about 101 by late November. It then generally decreases to about 94 by early January, and generally increases to end at about 110. Brazil begins at about 89 and generally increases to about 111 by early December. It then generally decreases to about 94 by early January, and generally increases to about 101. It then generally decreases to about 96 by early February, and generally increases to end at about 100. Korea begins at about 89 and generally increases to about 110 by late November. It then generally decreases to about 92 by late December, and generally increases to end at about 111. China begins at about 100 and remains about constant until it ends at about 100. They are all at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Figure: Stock Market Indexes Line chart, 2004 to early 2009. January 5, 2004=100. Data are weekly. There are four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "Hong Kong". Mexico begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 250 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 200 by mid-2006. It then generally increases to about 370 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 190. Brazil begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 75 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 320 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 145 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 170. Korea begins at about 110 and generally decreases to about 90 by mid-2004. It then generally increases to about 150 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 135. Hong Kong begins at about 110 and generally decreases to about 80 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 240 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 95. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. January 22, 2009=100. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "Hong Kong". Mexico begins at about 114 and generally decreases to about 93 by late November. It then generally increases to about 120 by early January, and generally decreases to end at about 90. Brazil begins at about 108 and generally decreases to about 81 by late November. It then generally increases to about 111 by early January, and generally decreases to about 97 by mid-January. It then generally increases to about 112 by early February, and generally decreases to end at about 101. Korea begins at about 108 and generally decreases to about 88 by late November. It then generally increases to about 107 by December, and generally decreases to about 94. Hong Kong begins at about 111 and generally decreases to about 98 by late November. It then generally increases to about 122 by early January, and generally decreases to about 95 by January. It then generally increases to about 110 by early February, and generally decreases to end at about 95. They are at about 100 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Emerging Markets: Short-Term Interest Rates and Dollar-Denominated Bond Spreads Percent Short-term interest rates* Change since Jan. Greenbook Latest Mexico Dollar-denominated bond spreads** 7.19 -0.24 Brazil 11.40 Argentina 12.94 … China Change since Jan. Greenbook Latest 3.88 0.08 -1.94 4.33 -0.06 -2.25 17.89 2.43 … 1.72 -0.19 Korea 3.25 0.00 … … Taiwan 1.14 -0.15 … … Singapore 0.31 0.00 … … Hong Kong 0.36 0.02 … … * One-month interest rate except 1-week rate for Korea. (No reliable short-term interest rate exists for China.) Return to table ** EMBI+ Spreads or EMBI Global Spreads over similar-maturity U.S. Treasury securities. Return to table … Not applicable. Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have no outstanding dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Return to table Figure: EMBI+ Spreads Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Overall", "Mexico", and "Brazil". Overall begins at about 3.9 and generally increases to about 5.5 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by mid-2007, and generally increases to about 7.7 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 6.8. Mexico begins at about 1.9 and generally decreases to about 0.9 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 5 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 4. Brazil begins at about 4.2 and generally increases to about 7.8 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2007, and generally increases to about 5 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 4.4. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Overall", "Mexico", and "Brazil". Overall begins at about 6 and generally increases to about 8.1 by late November. It then generally decreases to about 6.4 by early January, and generally increases to end at about 6.5. It is at about 6.7 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Mexico begins at about 3.7 and generally increases to about 5 by late November. It then generally decreases to about 3.3 by early January, and generally increases to end at about 3.9. It is at about 3.8 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Brazil begins at about 4.4 and generally increases to about 5.8 by late November. It then generally decreases to about 3.9 by early January, and generally increases to end at about 4.3. It is at about 4.5 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Figure: EMBI Global Spreads Line chart, by percent, 2004 to early 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "China", "Malaysia", and "Indonesia". Indonesia begins May 2004. China begins at about 0.5 and remains about constant until about mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 3 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1.9. Malaysia begins at about 1 and generally increases to about 1.5 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1 by late 2004, and remains constant until about mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 4.9 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3.5. Indonesia begins at about 4.2 and generally decreases to about 2 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 3 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 1.5 by mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 10.5 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 8.5. There is a second line chart, November 2008 to March 2009. Data are daily. The January 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "China", "Malaysia", and "Indonesia". Indonesia begins May 2004. China begins at about 2.3 and generally increases to about 3.5 by early November. It then generally decreases to about 1 by late November. It then increases to about 2.7 by mid-December, and generally decreases to end at about 1.8. It is at about 2 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Malaysia begins at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about 3.5 by early January. It then remains about constant until it ends at about 3.5. It is at about 3.45 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Indonesia begins at about 7.1 and generally increases to about 11.4 by late November. It then generally decreases to about 7 by early January, and generally increases to about 8.8 by January. It then generally decreases to about 7.2 by early February, and generally increases to end at about 8.3. It is at about 8.5 at the time of the January 2009 Greenbook. Advanced Foreign Economies Figure: Average Real Gross Domestic Product Line chart, by annualized percent change, s.a., 1999 to 2008. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 3.5 and generally increases to about 5.2 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about -0.5 by 2001, and generally increases to about 3 by early 2002. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 3.5 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -5.5. Note: Chain weighted by moving bilateral shares in U.S. merchandise exports. Source: FRB staff calculations. Figure: Consumer Prices Line chart, by 12-month percent change, s.a., 1999 to 2009. Data are monthly. There are four series, "Japan", "Euro area", "Canada", and "United Kingdom". Japan begins at about 0.2 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about -1.2 by late 1999. It then generally increases to about -0.1 by late 2000, and generally decreases to about -1.8 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 0.9 by late 2004, and generally decreases to about -1.2 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about 2.4 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 0. Euro area begins at about 0.9 and generally increases to about 3.1 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.7 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 2.6 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.7 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 4 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.1. Canada begins at about 1 and generally increases to about 3.9 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 0.7 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 4.6 by early 2003. It then generally decreases to about 0.7 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 3.4 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 0.7 by 2006, and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1. United Kingdom begins at about 1.7 and generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 2.8 by 2001, and generally decreases to about 0.7 by mid-2002. It then generally increases to about 3 by early 2007, and generally decreases to about 1.8 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 5.2 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3. Source: via Haver Analytics Figure: Official or Targeted Interest Rates Line chart, by percent, 1999 to 2009. There are four series, "Japan", "Euro area", "Canada", and "United Kingdom". Japan begins at about 0.2 and generally decreases to about 0 by late 1999. It then generally increases to about 0.2 by mid-2000, and generally decreases to about 0 by early 2001. It then remains about constant until about mid-2006, and generally increases to about 0.5 by early 2007. It then remains about constant until late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 0.1. Euro area begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 2.5 by early 1999. It then generally increases to about 4.8 by late 2000, and generally decreases to about 2 by 2003. It then remains about constant until about late 2005, and generally increases to about 4.3 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.5. Canada begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about 4.5 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 5.7 by early 2000, and generally decreases to about 2 by early 2002. It then generally increases to about 3.2 by 2003, and generally decreases to about 2 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 4.5 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to end at about 0.6. United Kingdom begins at about 6 and generally decreases to about 5 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 6 by early 2000, and remains about constant until about early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 3.4 by mid-2003, and generally increases to about 5.7 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 1. Source: Bloomberg. Japanese Real GDP (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.) Component 2008 2007 1 2008 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 GDP 2.2 -4.6 0.6 -3.6 -2.3 -12.7 Total domestic demand 0.8 -1.9 -0.6 -4.0 -1.8 -1.2 Consumption 0.3 -0.1 3.0 -3.0 1.2 -1.6 Private investment -1.0 -7.9 0.3 -8.7 -8.9 -13.6 Public investment -3.8 -5.3 -18.2 -3.3 4.1 -2.5 Government consumption 3.4 -0.1 -0.9 -3.6 -0.6 4.9 Inventories2 0.4 -0.1 -1.4 0.2 -0.7 1.3 Exports 10.2 -12.8 12.6 -9.0 2.5 -45.0 Imports 1.9 2.9 6.1 -11.7 6.8 12.0 Net Exports2 1.3 -2.4 1.3 -0.2 -0.3 -9.9 1. Q4/Q4 Return to table 2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth. Return to table Source: via Haver Analytics. Japan Figure: Economic Activity Line chart, 1999 to early 2009. 2005=100. There are two series, "Industrial production", and "Tertiary services". Industrial production begins at about 92.5 and generally increases to about 102.5 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 86 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 111 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 76. Tertiary services begins at about 92 and generally increases to about 103.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 99.5. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Real Trade Line chart, 1999 to early 2009. 2005=100. There are two series, "Real exports" and "Real imports". Real exports begins at about 69 and generally increases to about 82 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 69 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 137 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 81. Real imports begins at about 78 and generally increases to about 92 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 81 by early 2002, generally increases to about 99 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 95. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Labor Market Line chart, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Unemployment rate", which is by percent, and "Job openings to applications", which is by ratio. These two series use two different scales. Unemployment rate begins at about 4.7 and generally decreases to about 4.6 by late 1999. It then generally increases to about 5.55 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 3.6 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 4.4 and generally decreases to end at about 4.1. Job openings begins at about 0.47 and generally increases to about 0.65 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 0.51 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 1.09 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.72. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins at about -0.1 and generally increases to about 0.5 by mid-1999. It then generally decreases to about -1.2 by late 1999, and generally increases to about -0.2. It then generally decreases to about -1.7 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 1 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about -1.1 by late 2005, and generally increases to about 1.1 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about -0.3 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 2.4 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0. Core begins at about -0.1 and generally increases to about 0.1 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -0.9 by late 2000, and generally increases to about 0.15 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about -0.2 by early 2007, and generally increases to end at about 2.1. Note: Core excludes fresh food. Source: via Haver Analytics. Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period except as noted; seasonally adjusted) 2008 2008 2009 Indicator Q2 Housing starts Machinery orders Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. -2.5 1 -1.6 -8.3 -5.6 1.5 -4.4 n.a. 0.6 -10.4 -16.7 -16.2 -1.7 n.a. n.a. Household expenditures -1.9 -0.5 0.4 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 n.a. New car registrations -1.8 -3.4 -15.1 -13.2 -2.5 -2.2 -7.3 Business sentiment 2 -7.0 -14.0 -24.0 … … … … 4.9 7.1 3.0 2.8 1.1 -0.2 n.a. Wholesale prices 3 1. Private sector, excluding ships and electric power. Return to table 2. Tankan survey, diffusion index. Level. Return to table 3. Percent change from year earlier; not seasonally adjusted. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: via Haver Analytics. Euro-Area Real GDP (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.) Component 2008 2007 1 2008 1 Q1 GDP 2.1 -1.3 2.8 Q2 -1.0 Q3 -1.0 Q4 -5.7 Total domestic demand 2.0 -0.1 1.8 -1.5 1.5 -2.3 Consumption 1.4 -0.7 0.7 -0.5 0.5 -3.4 Investment 3.3 -3.3 5.0 -4.6 -2.4 -10.5 Government consumption 2.1 1.7 2.6 3.0 3.6 -2.4 Inventories2 0.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.8 2.2 Exports 4.1 -5.6 7.3 -0.0 0.1 -26.1 Imports 3.8 -3.2 5.3 -1.1 5.8 -20.2 Net Exports2 0.2 -1.2 1.0 0.5 -2.4 -3.5 Memo: GDP of selected countries France 2.2 -1.0 1.6 -1.2 0.4 -4.6 Germany 1.7 -1.6 6.2 -2.0 -2.1 -8.2 Italy 0.2 -2.6 1.6 -2.5 -2.2 -7.1 1. Q4/Q4 Return to table 2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth. Return to table Source: via Haver Analytics. Euro Area Figure: Nominal Exports and Imports Line chart, by billions of U.S. dollars, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Exports" and "Imports". The two series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 65 and generally increase to about 270 by 2008. They then generally decrease to end at about 160. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Economic Sentiment Line chart, by percent balance, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Consumer confidence" and "Industrial confidence". Consumer confidence begins at about -5 and generally increases to about 2 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -21 by early 2003, and generally increases to about 1 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -33. Industrial confidence begins at about -10 and generally increases to about 5 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -18 by late 2001, and generally increases to about -2 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about -10 by 2005, and generally increases to about 7 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -37. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Unemployment Rate Line chart, by percent, 1999 to early 2009. The series begins at about 9.3 and generally decreases to about 7.8 by early 2001. It then generally increases to about 9.0 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 7.2 by early 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 8.25. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins at about 1.1 and generally increases to about 3.3 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.6 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 2.6 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2006, and generally increases to about 4.1 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.2. Core begins at about 1.2 and generally increases to about 2.6 by early 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 2.7 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end about 1.7. Note: Core excludes energy and unprocessed food. Source: via Haver Analytics. Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period except as noted; seasonally adjusted) 2008 2008 2009 Indicator Q2 1 Q3 Q4 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. -1.6 -2.0 -5.3 -1.7 -2.3 -2.7 n.a. 2 -0.9 -0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 -0.3 n.a. New car registrations Industrial production Retail sales volume -1.9 -6.2 -8.2 -6.0 -1.4 -2.6 n.a. Employment 0.2 -0.1 n.a. … … … … Producer prices 3 7.1 8.6 3.7 6.3 3.3 1.6 n.a. 10.8 9.9 9.0 9.8 8.8 8.5 6.7 M33 1. Excludes construction. Return to table 2. Excludes motor vehicles. Return to table 3. Eurostat harmonized definition. Percent change from year earlier. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. M3 Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Return to table Source: via Haver Analytics. U.K. Real GDP (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.) Component 2008 2007 1 2008 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 GDP 3.0 -1.9 1.6 -0.1 -2.8 -6.0 Total domestic demand 3.6 -2.3 0.8 -0.2 -2.9 -6.9 Consumption 3.6 -0.1 3.6 -0.7 -0.5 -2.7 Investment 4.1 -9.7 -11.0 -5.0 -13.8 -8.9 Government consumption 1.5 4.4 9.4 0.3 2.1 6.1 Inventories2 0.3 -1.5 -1.4 0.9 -0.5 -5.0 Exports 3.3 -5.3 2.9 -4.2 2.1 -20.2 Imports 5.3 -7.1 -1.5 -4.4 1.1 -21.6 -0.7 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 Net Exports2 1. Q4/Q4 Return to table 2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth. Return to table Source: via Haver Analytics. United Kingdom Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins at about 1.5 and generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 2 by 2001, and generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 3.1 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 1.8 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 5.5 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3. Core begins at about 1.2 and generally decreases to about 0.1 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 1.7 by 2001, and generally decreases to about 0.9 by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 1.9 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 1.1 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 2.8 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 1.9. Note: Core excludes energy and unprocessed food. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Unemployment Rates Line chart, by percent, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Labor force survey" and "Claimant count". Labor force survey begins at about 6.1 and generally decreases to about 4.9 by 2001. It then generally increases to about 5.3 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 4.8 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 5.5 by early 2007, generally decreases to about 5.2 by early 2008, and generally increases to end at about 6.3. Claimant count begins at about 4.1 and generally decreases to about 2.6 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 3 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 2.5 by late 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 3.8. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Purchasing Managers Survey Line chart, 1999 to early 2009. 50+=expansion. There are two series, "Services" and "Manufacturing". Services begins at about 56 and generally increases to about 60 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about 46 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 58 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 49 by early 2003, and generally increases to about 60 by early 2004. It then generally decreases to about 49.5 by early 2005, and generally increases to about 61 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 43.5. Manufacturing begins at about 49.5 and generally increases to about 56 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about 45.5 by late 2001, and generally increases to be about 53.5 by early 2002. It then generally decreases to about 49 by early 2003, and generally increases to about 56 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 47 by 2005, and generally increases to about 55.5 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 35. Source: Reuters. Figure: Labor Costs Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Unit wage costs" and "Average earnings". Unit wage costs begins at about 1.5 and generally decreases to about -3.5 by late 1999. It then generally increases to about 0.9 by late 2000, and generally decreases to about -3.8 by early 2001. It then generally increases to about 5 by 2002, and generally decreases to about -5.2 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 1.5 by early 2005, and generally decreases to about -4.2 by mid-2005. It then generally increases to about 3.1 by 2006, and generally decreases to about -2 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 8. Average earnings begins at about 4 and generally increases to about .1 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about 2.9 by early 2002, and generally fluctuates to end at about 3.2. Note: Unit wage costs is manufacturing industries. Average earnings is whole economy, including bonuses. Source: via Haver Analytics. Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period except as noted; seasonally adjusted) 2008 2008 2009 Indicator Q2 Producer input prices 1 Q3 29.9 28.1 9.0 8.1 -1.2 -1.7 -4.5 -2.4 Industrial production Business confidence 2 Consumer confidence 2 Trade balance 3 Current account Q4 Jan. Feb. 3.2 1.5 0.5 -1.5 -2.6 n.a. 0.7 -12.0 -38.3 -42.0 -42.0 -43.0 -44.0 -16.0 -24.2 -27.4 -26.8 -28.7 -35.1 -31.5 -22.0 -22.9 -17.1 3 Nov. Dec. -12.7 -14.6 -6.1 -5.4 n.a. n.a. … … … … n.a. 1. Percent change from year earlier. Return to table 2. Percent balance. Return to table 3. Level in billions of U.S. dollars. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: via Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations. Canadian Real GDP (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.) Component 2008 2007 1 2008 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 GDP 2.8 -0.7 -0.9 0.6 0.9 -3.4 Total domestic demand 6.3 -1.1 -2.0 2.7 0.7 -5.6 Consumption 5.3 0.3 2.4 1.4 0.6 -3.3 Investment 4.2 -3.7 0.6 -1.0 1.0 -14.6 Government consumption 4.6 2.0 1.5 3.9 -0.2 2.8 Inventories2 1.5 -0.8 -3.3 1.2 0.1 -0.8 Exports -1.4 -7.4 -4.6 -3.2 -3.4 -17.5 Imports 8.6 -8.3 -7.6 3.6 -3.7 -23.3 -4.2 0.9 0.9 -2.3 0.0 2.2 Net Exports2 1. Q4/Q4 Return to table 2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth. Return to table Source: via Haver Analytics. Canada Figure: Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 1999 to 2009. The series begins at about 4.9 and generally increases to about 6.8 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about 0.1 by 2001, and generally increases to about 4.3 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1.9 by early 2005, and generally increases to about 4.2 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 1.8 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 3 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -1.2. Note: Constructed from various Statistics Canada surveys and supplements to the quarterly income and expenditure-based estimates. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Real Trade Line chart, 1999 to early 2009. 2002=100. There are two series, "Real exports" and "Real imports". They track closely together until about late 2001 when they reach about 98. They begin at about 93 and generally increase to about 107 by 2000. Real exports generally decreases to about 92 by 2003, and generally increases to about 115 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 91. Real imports generally decreases to about 93 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 145 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end 122. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Unemployment Rate Line chart, by percent, 1999 to early 2009. It begins at about 8.2 and generally decreases to about 6.7 by early 2000. It then generally increases to about 8.0 by early 2002, and generally decreases to about 5.8 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 7.2. Source: via Haver Analytics. Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 4.2 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 0.6 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 4.8 by early 2003. It then generally decreases 0.6 by early 2004, and generally increases 3.2 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2006, and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 1.1. Core begins at about 1.3 and generally increases to about 2 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about 1.1 by 2000, and generally increases to about 3.3 by early 2003. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 2.5 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.9. Note: Core excludes 8 most volatile components and the effects of changes in indirect taxes. Source: via Haver Analytics. Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period and seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 2008 2009 Indicator Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct. Industrial production -0.7 0.1 -2.8 -0.2 New manufacturing orders Nov. Dec. -1.6 -2.0 Jan. n.a. -1.7 -0.9 -8.8 -0.6 -6.1 -7.1 n.a. Retail sales 0.4 -0.0 -1.6 0.2 -1.2 -4.1 n.a. Employment 0.2 -0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.8 Wholesale sales 1.1 0.1 -7.7 -3.8 -2.3 -3.6 n.a. 63.2 Ivey PMI 1 59.3 43.8 52.2 40.2 39.1 36.1 1. Not seasonally adjusted. 50+ indicates expansion. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: via Haver Analytics; Bank for International Settlements. Chinese Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2007 2009 2008 Q3 Q4 Dec. Jan. Feb. Real GDP 1 12.3 6.9 5.3 1.6 … … … Industrial production 19.5 1.8 1.9 -5.3 -1.5 n.a. n.a. 6.5 1.2 5.3 2.5 1.2 1.0 -1.6 262.7 295.4 268.8 421.7 478.8 511.2 171.6 Consumer prices 2 Merch. trade balance 3 1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Quarterly data estimated by staff from reported 4-quarter growth rates. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Imports are valued at cost, insurance, and freight. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC. Indian Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2007 Q3 Real GDP 1 8.9 2009 2008 5.3 Q4 9.2 -1.9 Nov. Dec. Jan. … … … Industrial production 9.9 4.2 .3 -2.6 2.8 -2.5 n.a. Consumer prices 2 5.5 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.5 8.7 9.5 3.8 6.2 12.5 8.6 8.5 6.2 5.2 -69.7 -112.5 -133.7 -111.7 -118.5 -97.0 -73.9 … … Wholesale prices 2 Merch. trade balance Current account 3 4 -11.3 n.a. -50.2 n.a. … 1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted, annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC. China and India Figure: Industrial Production Line chart, 2003 to late 2008. January 2000=100. There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 137 and generally increases to about 330 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 310. India begins at about 115 and generally increases to end at about 175. Source: CEIC. Figure: Consumer Prices Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 0.3 and generally increases to about 5.2 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 9 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -1.5. India begins at about 3.2 and generally increases to about 5 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 2.4 by 2004, and generally increases to about 7.5 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 5.5 by early 2008, and generally increases to end at about 9.4. Source: China Statistic and Consultancy Service Center; CEIC. Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving average (n.s.a.). There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about 0 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 3 by late 2003, and generally decreases to about -1 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 44 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 33. India begins at about 2 and remains about constant until about 2004. It then generally decreases to about -11 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about -9. Source: China Statistic and Consultancy Service Center; CEIC. Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 5.3 and remains constant until about late 2004. It then generally increases to about 7.4 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 5.2. India begins at about 5.5 and generally increases to about 7.5 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 4.5 by late 2003, and generally increases to about 6 by early 2004. It then generally decreases to about 4.5 by 2004, and generally increases to about 9 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 5. Source: Bloomberg; CEIC. Figure: Gross External Debt Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2008. The series begins at about 21 and generally decreases to about 18 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 19.5. Source: Bank for International Settlements; Haver Analytics. Figure: Short-Term External Debt Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2008. The series begins at about 6 and generally decreases to about 4.5 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 6.5 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 6 by 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 15. Source: Bank for International Settlements; CEIC. Economic Indicators for Newly Industrialized Economies: Growth (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 Real GDP Q4 -2.8 Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Hong Kong 7.1 -2.5 -7.8 … … … Korea 5.9 -3.6 2.1 -20.8 … … … Singapore 5.8 -4.0 -2.1 -16.4 … … … Taiwan 6.4 -8.4 -10.4 -25.8 … … … n.a. … … … -2.0 -11.9 -10.1 -9.6 1.3 Industrial production Hong Kong -1.6 Korea 7.0 3.0 Singapore 5.9 -4.2 Taiwan 7.8 -1.8 -3.8 2.9 n.a. -8.1 7.5 -10.2 -10.9 -4.1 -20.4 -12.6 -7.9 -2.8 1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC; Reuters. Economic Indicators for Newly Industrialized Economies: Merchandise Trade Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate) 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 Hong Kong Q4 Dec. Jan. Feb. -23.5 -25.9 -27.6 -15.1 -10.1 n.a. Korea 28.2 11.2 24.8 -7.8 n.a. Singapore 36.2 18.4 16.7 12.6 12.0 2.3 n.a. Taiwan 16.8 4.4 -5.7 9.4 10.5 35.8 14.8 n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC. 6.0 -13.9 .5 Economic Indicators for Newly Industrialized Economies: Consumer Price Inflation (Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year earlier except as noted) 2008 2007 1 2008 1 Q3 Hong Kong 3.8 2.0 Q4 4.6 2.3 2009 Dec. 2.0 Jan. 3.1 Feb. n.a. Korea 3.6 4.1 5.5 4.5 4.1 3.7 4.1 Singapore 4.4 4.3 6.6 5.4 4.3 2.9 n.a. Taiwan 3.3 1.3 4.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 -1.3 1. Dec./Dec. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC. Newly Industrialized Economies Figure: Industrial Production Line chart, 2003 to 2009. January 2000=100. There are four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 115 and generally increases to about 170 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 110. Singapore begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 90 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 132 by late 2004, and generally decreases to about 105 by early 2005. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 182 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 143 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 170 by early 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 110. Hong Kong begins at about 80 and remains about constant until 2005. It then generally increases to about 85 by late 2005, and generally decreases to end at about 75 by 2008. Taiwan begins at about 104.5 and generally increases to about 147 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 98. Source: CEIC. Figure: Consumer Prices Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009. There are four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 3.9 and generally increases to about 4.5 by early 2003. It then generally decreases to about 3 by 2003, and generally increases to about 4.8 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 2 by 2007, and generally increases to about 6 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 4.1. Singapore begins at about 1 and generally decreases to about -0.5 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by 2004, and generally decreases to about -1 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 7.5 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 3. Hong Kong begins at about -1.5 and generally decreases to about -4 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 1.3 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 6.3 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3. Taiwan begins at about 1 and generally decreases to about -2.3 by early 2003. It then generally increases to about 3.8 by 2004, and generally decreases to about 0 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 3.8 by 2005, and generally decreases to about -1.2 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 5.6 by late 2007, and generally decreases to about 3 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 6 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -1.6. Source: CEIC; Bank of Korea; Reuters. Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving average (n.s.a.). There are four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 1.0 and generally increases to about 3.7 by early 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.8 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 3.1 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about 0.45 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 2.0 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about -1.1 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 0.35. Singapore begins at about 1.6 and generally increases to about 2.2 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about 1.7 by 2004, and generally increases to about 3.35 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 2.4 by 2006, and generally increases to about 3.5 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.55 by 2008, and generally increases to about 2.0 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.6. Hong Kong begins at about -0.7 and generally increases to about -0.2 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by 2004, and generally increases to about -0.4 by early 2005. It then generally decreases to about -3.0 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about -0.2. Taiwan begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 1.7 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about -0.5 by late 2004, and generally increases to about 2.0 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 0.4 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 2.2 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about -0.55 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 1.7. Source: CEIC. Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are three series, "Korea", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 5.2 and generally decreases to about 3.2 by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 5.1 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Hong Kong begins at about 2.8 and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2003. It then remains constant until about mid-2005, and generally increases to about 6.8 by 2006. It then remains about constant until about mid2007, and generally decreases to end at about 1.2. Taiwan begins at about 1.5 and generally decreases to about 1.2 by 2003. It remains about constant until about 2004, and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.5. Source: Bloomberg. Figure: Gross External Debt Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2008. There are three series, "Korea", "Hong Kong" and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 25 and remains about constant until about 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 50. Hong Kong begins at about 210 and generally increases to about 255 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 230 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 325 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 310. Taiwan begins at about 20 and generally increases to about 25 by 2004. It then remains about constant until the end. Source: Bank for International Settlements. Figure: Short-Term External Debt Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2008. There are three series, "Korea", "Hong Kong" and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 45 and generally decreases to about 25 by late 2004. It then generally increases to end at about 75. Hong Kong begins at about 190 and generally increases to about 250 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 225 by early 225, and generally increases to about 358 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 320. Taiwan begins at about 20 and generally increases to about 30 by 2004. It then remains about constant until the end. Source: Bank for International Settlements. ASEAN-41 Economic Indicators: Growth (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2009 2007 2008 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Real GDP 2 Indonesia 5.7 4.9 Malaysia 7.4 .1 Philippines 6.5 4.5 Thailand 5.9 6.9 -4.3 -3.3 … … … 1.0 -10.7 … … … 4.8 4.1 … … … 1.7 -22.2 … … … Industrial production 3 Indonesia 4 5.6 3.0 -.1 -.8 2.5 -3.6 n.a. Malaysia 2.0 .1 -1.9 -7.4 -1.8 -6.8 n.a. -2.7 .2 .2 -8.4 -7.8 .5 n.a. 8.2 5.3 -9.1 -11.4 -.6 Philippines Thailand 1.1 -10.5 1. Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Return to text 2. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 3. Annual data are annual averages. Return to table 4. Staff estimate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC. ASEAN-41 Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars; seasonally adjusted annualized rate) 2008 Indicator Q3 Indonesia 2009 2007 2008 39.6 32.2 Q4 30.8 22.6 Nov. Dec. Jan. 37.9 19.7 24.2 Malaysia 29.2 42.7 49.7 34.4 34.3 36.3 31.4 Philippines -5.0 -7.6 -9.8 -4.9 .6 -8.8 n.a. Thailand 11.6 .2 -6.6 -11.1 -15.5 -.4 29.0 1. Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Return to text n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC; Bank of Thailand; Philippines Economic Indicators Telegram (PEIT); Monetary Authority of Singapore. ASEAN-41 Economic Indicators: Consumer Price Inflation (Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year earlier except as noted) Indicator 2008 2007 2 2008 2 Q3 Q4 2009 Dec. Jan. Feb. Indonesia 5.8 11.1 12.0 11.4 11.1 9.2 8.6 Malaysia 2.4 4.4 8.4 5.9 4.4 3.9 n.a. Philippines 3.9 8.0 12.2 9.7 8.0 7.1 7.3 Thailand 3.2 .4 7.2 2.2 .4 -.3 .0 1. Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Return to text 2. Dec./Dec. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: CEIC; IMF International Financial Statistics database. ASEAN-4 Figure: Industrial Production Line chart, 2003 to 2009. January 2000=100. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 140 and generally increases to about 168 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about 140 by late 2005, and generally increases to end at about 160. Malaysia begins at about 110 and generally increases to about 158 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 130. Philippines begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 80 by early 2007. It then generally increases to about 96 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 80. Thailand begins at about 130 and generally increases to about 212 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 165. Source: CEIC; Bank of Philippines. Figure: Consumer Prices Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009.There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 8 and generally decreases to about 4.5 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 18 by late 2005, and then generally decreases to about 5.5 by late 2006. It then generally increases to about 12 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 8. Malaysia begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 5 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 1 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 8 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 4. Philippines begins at about 3.5 and generally increases to about 8 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about 3 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 13 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 7. Thailand begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 1 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 6 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 1 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 9.5 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 0. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; CEIC. Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving average (n.s.a.). There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 2.05 and generally increases to about 2.3 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 1.8 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 3.9 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 3 by late 2007, and generally increases to about 3.9 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.1. Malaysia begins at about 1.8 and generally increases to about 2.2 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 2 by 2007, and generally increases to about 4.4 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3. Philippines begins at about -0.3 and generally increases to about -0.1 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about -1.2 by 2005, and generally increases to about 0 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about -0.8 by early 2008, and generally increases to about -0.3. Thailand begins at about 0.1 and generally increases to about 0.8 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about -1 by 2005, and generally increases to about 1.2 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about -0.5 by 2008, and generally increases to about 1.3 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about -1.2 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 0.2. Source: CEIC; Philippines Economic Indicators Telegram (PEIT); Bank of Thailand Monthly Statistical Release. Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 13.5 and generally decreases to about 7.5 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 12.5 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 8 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 9.5 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 8. Malaysia begins at about 3.5 and remains about constant until about late 2005. It then generally increases to about 4 by 2006, and remains about constant until 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3. Philippines begins at about 7 and generally decreases to about 6 by 2003. It then remains about constant until 2005, and generally increases to about 7.5 by late 2005. It remains about constant until about 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 5 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 6 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 5. Thailand begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about 1 by 2003. It remains about constant until 2004, and generally increases to about 5 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 3 by 2007, and remains about constant until about 2008. It then generally increases to about 4 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Source: Bloomberg; Haver Analytics. Figure: Gross External Debt Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2008. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 58 and generally decreases to about 54 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 57 by late 2003, and generally decreases to end at about 25. Malaysia begins at about 44 and generally increases to about 48 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 30 by late 2007, and generally increases to end at about 34. Philippines begins at about 75 and generally decreases to end at about 32. Thailand begins at about 43 and generally decreases to about 32 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to end at about 24. Note: ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Source: CEIC; Bank for International Settlements. Figure: Short-Term External Debt Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2008. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 48 and generally decreases 47 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 62 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 16 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 47. Malaysia begins at about 30 and generally increases to about 32 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 20 by early 2007, and generally increases to end at about 45. Philippines begins at about 49 and generally decreases to about 45 by late 2003. It then generally increases to about 57 by early 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 21. Thailand begins at about 28 and generally decreases to about 20 by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 31 by early 2006, and generally decreases to about 20 by early 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 25. Source: Bank for International Settlements. Mexican Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2007 Q3 1 2009 2008 Q4 Dec. Jan. Feb. 3.7 -1.7 1.6 -10.3 … … … Overall economic activity 3.1 1.0 .3 -2.2 -3.4 n.a. n.a. Industrial production 2.4 -1.6 -.9 -2.8 -4.7 n.a. n.a. Unemployment rate2 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 4.8 4.6 n.a. 3.8 6.5 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.2 Real GDP Consumer prices 3 4 -10.1 -16.8 -20.8 -23.0 -20.0 -12.2 n.a. Merchandise imports 4 281.9 308.6 324.5 273.2 244.1 230.4 n.a. Merchandise exports 4 271.9 291.8 303.7 250.3 224.1 218.3 n.a. -8.1 -15.4 -19.3 -24.5 … … … Merch. trade balance Current account 5 1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent; counts as unemployed those working 1 hour a week or less. Return to table 3. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 5. Billions of U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted, annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: Haver Analytics; Bank of Mexico. Brazilian Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2007 Q3 1 2009 2008 Q4 Dec. Jan. Feb. 6.1 1.2 6.9 -13.6 … … … Industrial production 6.0 3.1 2.5 -9.5 -12.7 2.3 n.a. Unemployment rate2 9.3 7.9 7.7 7.9 7.8 8.6 n.a. Real GDP Consumer prices 3 4.5 Current account 5 5.9 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 40.0 24.7 24.0 20.0 14.2 7.6 29.4 1.6 Merch. trade balance 4 -28.3 -24.1 -21.4 -35.1 -33.0 n.a. 1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent. Return to table 3. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Price index is IPCA. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 5. Billions of U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted, annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: Haver Analytics; IMF International Financial Statistics database; Intituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. Argentine Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2007 2009 2008 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Real GDP 1 9.2 4.4 6.3 -1.2 … … … Industrial production 7.5 4.9 1.3 -.5 -1.1 2.4 -6.2 Unemployment rate2 8.5 7.9 7.8 7.3 … … … 8.5 7.2 8.9 7.8 7.9 7.2 6.8 11.1 13.2 19.7 11.8 15.0 5.9 14.6 7.1 n.a. 14.2 n.a. … … … Consumer prices 3 Merch. trade balance Current account 5 4 1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent; not seasonally adjusted. Return to table 3. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 5. Billions of U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted, annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics database; Ministerio de economia; U.S. State Department. Venezuelan Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2007 2009 2008 Q3 Q4 Dec. Jan. Feb. Real GDP 1 8.5 Consumer prices Non-oil trade balance Merch. trade balance Current account 4 3 3 3.2 1.0 6.4 … … … 22.5 2 30.9 33.6 32.3 30.9 29.9 28.8 -34.6 -37.5 -36.3 -45.6 … … … 23.7 45.4 69.5 -9.8 … … … 20.0 39.2 71.7 -18.0 … … … 1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted, annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics database; Bank of Venezuela; Reuters; and embassy cables. Latin America Figure: Industrial Production Line chart, 2003 to 2009. January 2000=100. There are three series, "Argentina", "Brazil" and "Mexico". Argentina begins at about 90 and generally increases to about 140 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 131. Brazil begins at about 108 and generally decreases to about 105 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 142 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 116. Mexico begins at about 98 and generally increases to about 104 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 101 by mid-2005, and generally increases to about 115 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 105. Source: Fundacion de Investigaciones Economicas Lationamericanas; Haver Analytics. Figure: Consumer Prices Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009. There are three series, "Argentina", "Brazil" and "Mexico". Argentina begins at about 39 and generally decreases to about 3 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 13 by late 2005, and generally decreases to end at about 7. Brazil begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 17 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 5 by 2004, and generally increases to about 7 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 3 by 2007, and generally increases to end at about 6. Mexico begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about 4 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 5 by late 2004, and generally decreases to about 3 by late 2005. It then generally increases to end at about 6. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Haver Analytics; Bank of Mexico. Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving average (n.s.a.). There are three series, "Argentina", "Brazil" and "Mexico". Argentina begins at about 1.5 and generally decreases to about 0.8 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 1.1 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 0.8 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 1.3 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 0.3 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 1.8 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1. Brazil begins at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 3.2 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 2.7 by late 2004, and generally increases to about 4.1 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 3.3 by 2006, and generally increases to about 4.1 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 1.4 by 2008, and generally increases to about 3 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.5. Mexico begins at about -0.1 and generally increases to about 0 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about -0.9 by 2003, and generally increases to about -0.1 by early 2004. It then generally decreases to about -1.3 by early 2005, and generally increases to about 0.2 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about -1.3 by 2007, and generally increases to about -0.1 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -1.7. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics, Bank of Mexico. Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "Brazil" and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 25.5 and generally increases to about 26 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 16 by 2004, and generally increases to about 20 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 11 by late 2007, and generally increases to end at about 13. Mexico begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases to about 4 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 10 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 7 by 2006, and then remains about constant until the end. Source: Bloomberg. Figure: Gross External Debt Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2008. There are three series, "Argentina", "Brazil" and "Mexico". Argentina begins at about 140 and generally decreases to about 98 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 120 by late 2003, and generally decreases to end at about 32.5. Brazil begins at about 183 and generally decreases to end at about 49. Mexico begins at about 25 and generally remains about constant until about 2005. It then generally decreases to about 20 by 2005, and remains about constant until the end. Source: Haver Analytics; Bank for International Settlements. Figure: Short-Term External Debt Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2008. There are three series, "Argentina", "Brazil" and "Mexico". Argentina uses a different scale. Argentina begins at about 170 and generally decreases to about 155 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 475 by early 2004, and generally decreases to about 140 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about 150 by early 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 60. Brazil begins at about 80 and generally decreases to about 38 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 42 by 2004, and generally decreases to about 20 by late 2006. It then generally increases to about 35 by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 20. Mexico begins at about 45 and generally decreases to about 25 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 30. Source: Bank for International Settlements. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015 Accessible Material March 2009 Greenbook Supplement Tables and Charts† Supplemental Notes The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers Indexes of consumer sentiment (Not seasonally adjusted) 2008 2009 Category Aug. Composite of current and expected conditions 1 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.P 63.0 70.3 57.6 55.3 60.1 61.2 56.3 56.6 71.0 75.0 58.4 57.5 69.5 66.5 65.5 62.3 57.9 67.2 57.0 53.9 54.0 57.8 50.5 53.0 72 86 60 59 62 70 65 63 105 120 106 107 109 114 103 100 52 65 49 42 39 47 31 43 72 83 71 65 66 69 66 67 103 108 98 115 121 124 127 123 110 107 89 88 116 101 103 96 146 140 117 145 130 143 146 139 150 141 156 162 162 154 159 156 22 21 24 27 25 24 27 28 Mean 5.3 4.6 4.3 2.9 1.7 2.5 2.3 2.4 Median 4.8 4.3 3.9 2.9 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.2 Mean 3.9 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.6 3.4 3.5 2.9 Median 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.8 Current conditions 1 Expected conditions 1 Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago 2 Expected in 12 months 2 Expected business conditions Next 12 months 2 Next 5 years 2 Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances 2 Houses Expected unemployment change - next 12 months Prob. household will lose a job - next 5 years Expected inflation - next 12 months Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years Note. Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall, plus 100. P Preliminary. Return to table 1. Feb. 1966 = 100. Return to table 2. Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. Return to table Figure: Consumer sentiment Line chart, 2001 to 2009. There are two series, "Reuters/Michigan", which is by 1966=100, and "Conference Board", which is by 1985=100. These two different series use two different scales. Reuters/Michigan begins at about 90 and generally decreases to about 82 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 98 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 78 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 105 by early 2004, and generally decreases to about 75 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 98 by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 57 by March. Conference Board begins at about 118 and generally decreases to about 85 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 110 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 62 by early 2003. It then generally increases to about 110 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 25 by February. Note: March 2009 is preliminary. Figure: Expected inflation (Reuters/University of Michigan) Line chart, by percent, 2001 to March 2009. There are two series, "Median, 5 to 10 years ahead" and "Median, 12 months ahead". Median, 5 to 10 years ahead begins at about 3 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 3.4 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.6 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 2.9. Median, 12 months ahead begins at about 2.9 and generally decreases to about 0.5 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 3.1 by early 2003, and generally decreases to about 1.8 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 4.7 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 3 by early 2007. It then generally increases to about 5.2 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2.2. Note: March 2009 is preliminary. The Domestic Financial Economy Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) 2007 2008 Aug. 6 Dec. 15 2009 Change to Mar. 12 from selected dates (percentage points) Instrument Jan. 27 Mar. 12 2007 Aug. 6 2008 Dec. 15 2009 Jan. 27 Short-term FOMC intended federal funds rate 5.25 1.00 .13 .13 -5.12 -.87 .00 3-month 4.74 .04 .13 .21 -4.53 .17 .08 6-month 4.72 .28 .32 .44 -4.28 .16 .12 1-month 5.26 .53 .29 .40 -4.86 -.13 .11 3-month 5.29 1.35 2.04 .75 -4.54 -.60 -1.29 3-month 5.34 1.85 1.08 1.13 -4.21 -.72 .05 6-month 5.27 2.24 1.57 1.75 -3.52 -.49 .18 1-month 5.33 1.50 .75 1.00 -4.33 -.50 .25 3-month 5.35 2.55 1.75 1.65 -3.70 -.90 -.10 8.25 4.00 3.25 3.25 -5.00 -.75 .00 2-year 4.49 .48 .68 1.00 -3.49 .52 .32 5-year 4.52 1.57 1.74 2.05 -2.47 .48 .31 10-year 4.82 3.08 3.17 3.34 -1.48 .26 .17 5-year 2.43 2.99 1.84 2.10 -.33 -.89 .26 10-year 2.48 2.66 1.97 2.25 -.23 -.41 .28 4.51 5.85 5.13 5.03 .52 -.82 -.10 5.44 2.76 2.84 3.10 -2.34 .34 .26 10-year FNMA 5.34 3.50 3.65 3.73 -1.61 .23 .08 10-year AA 8 6.12 6.86 6.15 6.71 .59 -.15 .56 Treasury bills1 Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2 Large negotiable CDs 1 Eurodollar deposits3 Bank prime rate Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury 4 U.S. Treasury indexed notes 5 Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer) 6 Private instruments 10-year swap 7 8 10-year BBB 6.57 9.59 8.89 9.15 2.58 -.44 .26 9.21 18.30 14.78 15.73 6.52 -2.57 .95 30-year fixed 6.59 5.19 5.10 5.03 -1.56 -.16 -.07 1-year adjustable 5.65 4.94 4.90 4.80 -.85 -.14 -.10 10-year high yield 8 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) Record high 2008 2009 Change to Mar. 12 from selected dates (percent) Stock exchange index Level Date Dec. 15 Jan. 27 Mar. 12 Record high 2008 Dec. 15 2009 Jan. 27 Dow Jones Industrial 14,165 10-9-07 8,565 8,175 7,170 -49.38 -16.28 -12.29 S&P 500 Composite 1,565 10-9-07 869 846 751 -52.03 -13.57 -11.23 Nasdaq 5,049 3-10-00 1,508 1,505 1,426 -71.75 -5.45 -5.24 Russell 2000 856 7-13-07 453 456 390 -54.41 -13.80 -14.37 Wilshire 5000 15,807 10-9-07 8,664 8,524 7,626 -51.75 -11.98 -10.53 1. Secondary market. Return to table 2. Financial commercial paper. Return to table 3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. Return to table 4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Return to table 5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. Return to table 6. Most recent Thursday quote. Return to table 7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. Return to table 8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. Return to table NOTES: August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting. December 15, 2008, is the day before the December 2008 FOMC monetary policy announcement. January 27, 2009, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement. Data for the 3-month commercial paper rate on December 15, 2008, are from December 4, 2008, the most recent date for which a sufficient volume of new issues was available to calculate this rate. The International Economy Trade in Goods and Services Annual rate 2008 Monthly rate 2008 Q2 Q3 2008 Q4 Nov. 2009 Dec. Jan. Percent change Nominal BOP Exports -2.9 22.9 9.2 -42.6 -6.1 -5.8 -5.7 Imports -7.5 18.2 6.2 -49.0 -11.9 -5.8 -6.7 Exports -1.8 12.3 3.0 -23.6 … … … Imports -7.1 -7.3 -3.5 -16.0 … … … -681.1 -725.7 -723.5 -561.5 -42.5 -39.9 -36.0 -820.8 -871.5 -865.0 -696.5 -53.3 -51.3 -47.0 10.8 11.4 10.9 Real NIPA Billions of dollars Nominal BOP Net exports Goods, net Services, net 139.7 145.8 141.5 134.9 n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Return to table BOP Balance of payments. Return to table NIPA National income and product accounts. Return to table Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (Quarterly) Figure: Trade Balance Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to January 2009. The series begins at about -210 and generally decreases to about -401 by late 2000. It then generally increases to about -350 by late 2001, and generally decreases to about -800 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about -570. January 2009 is marked at about -430. Figure: Contribution of Net Exports to Growth of Real Gross Domestic Product Bar chart, by percentage points, annual rate, 1999 to 2008. The series begins at about -1.6 and generally increases to about 0.2 by the end of 1999. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by early 2000 and generally increases to about 0.5 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by late 2002, and generally increases to about 0.5 by mid-2003. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by 2004, and generally increases to about 0.75 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about -1.3 by late 2005, and generally increases to about 1.4 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to about -1.3 by early 2007, generally increases to about 2.9 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -0.5. Figure: Selected Exports Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to 2008. There are four series, "Capital goods ex. aircraft", "Industrial supplies", "Consumer goods", and "Aircraft". Capital goods begins at about 249 and generally increases to about 325 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 240 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 405 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 375. Industrial supplies begins at about 125 and generally increases to about 160 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 140 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 405 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 300. Consumer goods begins at about 75 and generally increases to about 170 by early 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 155. Aircraft begins at about 55 and fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 75. Figure: Selected Imports Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to 2008. There are four series, "Capital goods", "Consumer goods", "Industrial supplies", and "Oil". Capital goods begins at about 275 and generally increases to about 360 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 275 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 475 by mid-2008. It generally decreases to end at about 430. Consumer goods begins at about 230 and generally increases to about 295 by the end of 2000. It then generally decreases to about 280 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 500 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 455. Industrial supplies begins at about 140 and generally increases to about 190 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 150 by early 2002, generally increases to about 345 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 280. Oil begins at about 48 and generally increases to about 125 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 80 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 540 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 340. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (Billions of dollars; annual rate, balance of payments basis) Change 1 Levels 2008 Q3 Exports of goods and services Goods exports Gold Other goods Capital goods 2008 Q4 2009 Dec. Jan. 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Dec. Jan. 1943.6 1692.0 1590.2 1498.9 42.2 -251.7 -97.8 -91.3 1385.1 1162.0 1065.0 36.9 -223.1 -99.5 -78.6 17.7 13.4 986.4 12.5 15.6 1367.4 1148.6 1052.5 970.8 488.1 442.4 432.3 396.4 Aircraft & parts 91.4 71.3 89.8 Computers & accessories 46.4 38.9 37.1 -4.3 -.8 3.1 38.2 -218.7 -1.3 -98.7 -81.6 -36.0 7.2 -45.7 -6.3 86.6 .4 -20.2 27.0 -3.2 35.4 -.7 -7.4 -1.2 -1.7 Semiconductors Other capital goods 53.6 44.4 37.0 31.3 2.1 -9.2 -9.2 -5.7 296.7 287.9 268.4 243.1 5.4 -8.9 -22.9 -25.3 Automotive 131.3 106.9 92.5 66.3 Ind. supplies (ex. ag., gold) 399.4 296.9 247.5 235.6 Consumer goods 169.4 154.7 147.5 136.9 5.5 -14.6 Agricultural 128.1 100.1 89.1 90.8 .0 51.0 47.6 43.6 44.9 558.6 530.0 525.2 512.4 All other goods 7.7 -24.4 -15.1 -26.2 19.4 -102.5 -51.4 -11.9 -9.5 -10.6 -28.0 -11.1 1.7 -1.7 -3.3 -59.2 1.3 5.3 -28.6 1.8 -12.7 Services exports Imports of goods and services Goods imports Oil 2667.2 2253.5 2069.0 1931.2 40.0 -413.6 -128.4 -137.8 2250.1 1858.5 1680.2 1550.0 30.4 -391.6 -123.8 -130.2 528.9 Gold Other goods Capital goods Aircraft & parts Computers & accessories 334.9 267.6 218.1 12.7 6.6 4.7 5.6 1708.5 1517.0 1407.9 1326.3 31.3 -194.1 -19.4 -49.4 -2.0 .9 -1.0 -191.4 -102.3 -81.7 .1 -6.1 464.9 425.2 405.1 381.9 -5.3 -39.7 -16.6 -23.3 34.3 32.3 34.5 28.6 -3.9 -1.9 3.6 -5.9 103.3 86.6 78.2 78.1 -6.1 -16.7 -7.8 -.0 26.2 23.1 20.7 18.6 -.8 -3.1 -2.2 -2.1 301.2 283.2 271.8 256.6 5.4 -18.0 -10.2 -15.3 Automotive 232.4 195.2 177.7 138.2 -17.1 -37.3 -19.4 -39.5 Ind. supplies (ex. oil, gold) 343.7 285.9 241.8 234.8 12.7 -57.8 -49.3 -7.1 Consumer goods Semiconductors Other capital goods 500.6 454.1 433.7 428.5 6.0 -46.5 -9.5 -5.2 Foods, feeds, beverages 91.9 88.3 85.3 82.2 1.7 -3.6 -2.0 -3.1 All other goods 75.0 68.3 64.3 60.7 1.1 -6.6 -5.6 -3.6 Services imports 417.1 395.0 388.8 381.3 9.6 -22.0 -4.5 -7.5 12.21 13.36 14.78 14.60 -.20 1.15 2.84 -.18 118.34 69.35 49.57 40.89 8.38 -48.98 -16.25 -8.68 Memo: Oil quantity (mb/d) Oil import price ($/bbl) 1. Change from previous quarter or month. Return to table Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau. Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports Figure: Merchandise Imports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Core goods" and "Non-oil goods". Core goods begins at about -1.9 and generally increases to about 1.9 by mid-2000. It then generally decreases to about -3.9 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 4 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 8.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -1. Non-oil goods begins at about -2.5 and generally increases to about 2.2 by early 2001. It generally decreases to about -5.2 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 8 by mid2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -2. Figure: Categories of Core Imports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Material-intensive goods" and "Finished goods". Material-intensive goods begins at about -4.9 and generally increases to about 7 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -10 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 14 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 5 by 2005, and generally increases to about 19 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -6. Finished goods begins at about -0.1 and remains about constant until about 2002. It then generally increases to about 3 by mid-2005, and generally decreases to about 0 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 4 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Figure: Oil Line chart, by dollars per barrel, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Spot West Texas intermediate" and "Import unit value". The two series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 13 and generally increase to about 35 by late 2000. They then generally decrease to about 20 by late 2001, and generally increase to about 75 by 2006. They then generally decrease to about 55 by early 2007, and generally increase to about 135 by 2008. They then generally decrease to end at about 45. Figure: Natural Gas Line chart, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Import price Index", which is by 2000=100, and "Spot Henry Hub", which is by dollars per million Btu. These two series use two different scales. Import price Index begins at about 55 and generally increases to end at about 140. The series contains about 4 peaks. One at about 215 by early 2001, the second at about 195 by early 2003, the third at about 275 by late 2005, and the fourth at about 290 by mid-2008. Spot Henry Hub begins at about 2 and generally increases to end at about 4. The series contains about 4 peaks. One at about 9.5 by late 2000, the second at about 9 by early 2003, the third at about 14.5 by late 2005, and the fourth at about 14 by mid-2008. Figure: Merchandise Exports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Core goods" and "Total goods". These 2 series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about -2 and generally increase to about 3 by early 2000. They then generally decrease to about -2.5 by early 2002, and generally increase to about 5.9 by 2004. They then generally decrease to about 3 by early 2006 and generally increase to about 13.5 by mid-2008. They then generally decrease to end at about -5. Figure: Categories of Core Exports Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to early 2009. There are two series, "Material-Intensive goods" and "Finished goods". Material-intensive goods begins at about -5.5 and generally increases to about 7 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about -6 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 14 by mid-2004. It then generally increases to about 24.5 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about -14. Finished goods begins at about 0 and remains about constant until about late 2003 when it is still about 0. It then generally increases to end at about 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wall Street Journal; Commodity Research Bureau. Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports (Percentage change from previous period) Annual rate 2008 Q3 Monthly rate 2009 2008 e Dec. 2009 Jan. Feb. Q4 Q1 4.1 -47.8 -24.9 -4.6 -1.2 -.2 Oil 5.8 -93.2 -77.5 -25.2 -4.2 3.9 Non-oil 3.3 -11.9 -9.3 -1.1 -.8 -.6 6.1 -11.6 -9.9 -1.3 -.8 -.4 2.3 -1.0 -.2 -.2 .2 -.0 Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 4.4 -.4 .7 -.2 .5 -.3 Automotive products 1.2 -.6 .7 -.1 .3 .2 Consumer goods 1.4 -1.6 -1.1 -.2 .0 .0 13.8 -29.3 -27.9 -3.7 -3.1 -1.3 Foods, feeds, beverages 11.1 -16.6 -6.4 2.2 .0 -3.2 Industrial supplies ex. fuels 14.5 -32.6 -33.4 -5.4 -4.1 -.7 Computers -8.2 -7.2 -7.5 -.7 -.7 -.9 Semiconductors -6.5 -2.5 -11.3 .5 -3.1 -.1 BLS prices Merchandise imports Core goods1 Finished goods Material-intensive goods Natural gas -25.1 -69.2 -49.6 -.1 -8.5 -13.2 Merchandise exports 3.8 -21.5 -8.1 -2.2 .5 -.1 Core goods2 5.2 -24.8 -9.3 -2.6 .8 -.2 2.8 1.6 2.5 .1 .7 -.0 Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 3.3 1.9 4.4 .2 .9 .2 Automotive products 1.2 1.1 .6 -.1 .4 -.3 Consumer goods 3.0 1.5 -.7 -.1 .3 -.3 7.7 -46.2 -22.0 -5.9 1.0 -.5 Finished goods Material-intensive goods Agricultural products 5.8 -53.1 -6.3 -6.2 6.2 -1.7 Industrial supples ex. ag. 8.5 -44.6 -27.5 -5.9 -.9 -.1 Computers -8.8 -8.6 -7.3 -1.1 -1.1 .2 Semiconductors -6.5 -13.8 -6.3 -.5 -2.2 1.9 NIPA prices Chain price index Imports of goods & services Non-oil merchandise Core goods1 Exports of goods & services Total merchandise Core goods 2 9.2 -37.1 n.a … … … 2.9 -9.7 n.a … … … 4.6 -8.3 n.a … … … 6.7 -21.9 n.a … … … 5.6 -24.2 n.a … … … 6.6 -25.6 n.a … … … 1. Excludes computers, semiconductors, and natural gas. Return to table 2. Excludes computers and semiconductors. Return to table e Estimate based on average of two months. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics. Return to table NIPA National income and product accounts. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: April 1, 2015
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