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Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC March 11, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) March 11, 1977 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) For both M1 and M 2 , current projections of FebruaryMarch growth rates are in the lower half of the Committee's operating ranges. M1 expanded at an annual rate a little below 1 per cent in February. Growth is expected to pick up in March and expansion for the 2 months combined is projected at about a 3 per cent rate. Growth of M2 has been affected by a sharp deceleration of flows into savings deposits, and for February-March it appears to be running at about a 7¼ per cent rate. At thrift institutions, there was also an appreciable slackening of deposit inflows during February--the latest period for which data are available. Nonborrowed reserves fell in February and are projected to decline in March, reflecting the weakness in member bank deposits that had developed in January and persisted through the end of February.1/ Growth in Monetary Aggregates over February-March period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M1 3 to 7 3.6 M2 6½ to 10½ 7.3 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Avg. for statement week ending Feb. 16 23 Mar. 2 9 4.70 4.74 4.68 4.63 1/ The recent behavior of nonborrowed reserves is compared with estimates of 6-month growth rates in nonborrowed reserves and related measures believed consistent with longer-run growth ranges for the aggregates in appendix I. -2(2) In the weeks immediately following the February FOMC meeting, incoming data suggested that February-March growth rates in both M1 and M 2 would be close to the midpoints of their respective ranges. Consequently, the Desk continued to aim for a Federal funds rate in the area of 4-5/8--4¾ per cent. When subsequent information indicated that both aggregates were expanding at rates in the lower halves of their ranges, the Desk shaded its funds rate objective toward 4-5/8 per cent. (3) Short-term interest rates changed little on balance over the inter-meeting period, but long-term rates rose 10 to 15 basis points. The modest rise in long rates apparently reflected the effects on market expectations of strengthening economic news. Yields in secondary mortgage markets rose in sympathy with bond rates, but rates on primary mortgages were virtually unchanged. (4) With yields in long-term markets up after the turn of the year, offerings of new corporate bonds fell substantially in February. Partly in consequence, business demands for short-term credit expanded rapidly. Bond offerings by State and local governments were maintained at a very rapid pace in February, and during the inter-meeting period the Treasury raised about $4.1 billion through new issues of 2- and 4-year notes. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. -3Past Twelve Months 1975 & Feb. '77 1976 over Average Feb. '76 Past Six Months Feb. '77 over Aug. '76 Past Three Months Feb. '77 over Nov. '76 Past Month Feb. '77 over Jan. '77 Nonborrowed reserves 1.4 2.6 2.6 1.0 -12.8 Total reserves 0.4 2.5 2.4 1.0 -12.7 Monetary Base 6.5 7.3 6.7 6.1 -0.1 5.1 5.7 4.9 4.8 0.8 10.4 10.5 11.0 9.6 6.6 M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 13.0 12.5 12.9 11.0 8.7 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 7.2 7.9 9.6 9.3 6.5 plus CD's) 10.7 10.7 11.9 10.9 8.4 4.5 4.6 6.3 4.0 -2.7 5.5 7.6 9.1 8.7 14.8 -1.1 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.8 Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M2 (M1 plus time deposits atcommercial banks other than large CD's) M5 (3 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. -4Prospective developments (6) Short-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate are summarized below, with more detailed short-run and longer-run figures shown in the tables on pp. 5 and 6. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for March-April M1 5½-9½ 5-9 4½-8½ M2 7½-11½ 7-11 6½-10½ 3¾-4½ 4¼-5 4¾-5½ Federal funds rate (inter-meeting period) (7) Assuming the Federal funds rate remains around 4-5/8 per cent--the midpoint of the alternative B range--we expect M1 growth in the March-April period to accelerate and be at an annual rate in a 5 to 9 per cent range. This pick-up in monetary growth is expected in view of the strengthening in economic activity that appears to be in process. Tax rebates are not likely to be disbursed until May, and thus will not directly influence monetary growth rates in March and April. The rebates will have a substantial effect on growth in money in the following months; alternative projections of their impact on M1 and M 2 over the spring and summer will be shown in next month's blue book. At the moment the staff is tentatively estimating that the rebates will raise the second-quarter growth rate in M 1 (relative to what it otherwise would be) by about 2 percentage points, and lower the third-quarter rate by about the same amount. (Such estimated impacts are included in the tables on pages 5 and 6.) (8) Growth in time deposits other than large CD's is expected to continue at about the recent reduced pace. The rise in yields on Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 February March April 313.8 315.5 317.7 313.8 315.5 317.5 313.8 315.5 317.3 749.5 754.5 761.1 749.5 754.5 760.5 749.5 754.5 759.9 1257.4 1266.8 1278.4 1257.4 1266.8 1277.6 1257.4 1266.8 1276.8 1976 QIII QIV 306.0 310.8 306.0 310.8 306.0 310.8 710.7 732.5 710.7 732.5 710.7 732.5 1181.7 1223.9 1181.7 1223.9 1181.7 1223.9 1977 QI QII 314.3 321.0 324.6 327.9 314.3 320.6 324.2 327.9 314.3 320.2 323.8 327.9 749.8 770.1 784.8 796.7 749.8 768.9 783.8 797.3 749.8 767.7 781.8 797.2 1257.5 1292.9 1321.4 1344.0 1257.5 1291.1 1320.0 1344.7 1257.5 1289.3 1316.9 1345.2 QIII QIV Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 March April 8.0 10.5 8.0 9.5 8.0 8.6 11.0 9.0 10.2 12.3 12.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 9.4 9.5 7.3 7.9 11.0 11.3 8.8 6.8 11.0 10.7 9.0 7.5 11.0 10.1 8.6 8.6 9.0 Quarterly Average: 1976 QIV 6.3 6.3 12.3 1977 QI QII 4.5 8.0 4.5 4.6 10.8 7.6 6.9 10.2 QIII QIV 4.5 8.5 4.5 4.1 Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77 6.6 4.3 6.3 4.6 10.3 6.9 9.9 9.6 7.4 7.7 11.3 7.9 11.0 8.3 10.7 8.7 Annual QIV '76-QIV '77 5.5 5.5 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 FOMC loner-run range QIII '76-QIV '77 44-6% 9.4 9.4 7.8 6.9 7-10 8k-11 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C February March April 812.8 816.7 823.5 812.8 813.7 823.1 812.8 1320.7 1329.0 1340.2 1320.7 1329.0 1339.6 539.6 542.2 546.4 539.6 542.2 822.7 1320.7 1329.0 1340.8 546.2 539.6 542.2 546.0 1976 QIII QIV 776.4 795.1 776.4 795.1 776.4 795.1 1247.4 1286.5 1247.4 1286.5 1247.4 1286.5 523.3 534.1 523.3 534.1 523.3 534.1 1977 QI QII 812.6 832.8 849.3 863.8 812.6 832.0 848.5 864.0 812.6 831.2 847.2 862.5 1320.4 1355.6 1385.9 1411.1 1320.4 1354.2 1384.6 1411.3 1320.4 540.9 552.6 566.4 577.6 540.9 552.2 565.8 577.5 540.9 551.8 565.2 576.1 1977 QIII QIV 816.7 1352.8 1382.4 1410.5 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 March April 10.7 7.5 10.1 9.6 12.5 12.5 8.8 9.9 7.9 6.8 8.8 9.5 7.9 7.3 10.5 10.7 10.5 8.9 7.3 10.2 9.0 7.7 9.5 7.4 9.3 7.7 10.7 8.2 10.5 8.4 10.3 8.5 9.7 9.7 9.6 5.8 10.0 5.8 9.4 5.8 8.8 7.5 7.5 9.6 5.8 9.3 5.8 8.9 5.8 8.4 12.5 8.3 8.3 8.3 10.5 5.1 8.7 10.0 7.9 5.1 8.4 9.9 8.3 5.1 8.1 9.7 7.7 6.9 9.0 6.8 9.2 6.6 8.8 8.1 8.1 7.9 Quarterly Averages: 1976 QIV 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 9.8 8.8 8.1 Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77 Annual QIV '76-QIV '77 8.7 8.5 -7intermediate-term Treasury issues has increased the attractiveness of market instruments relative to time deposits, especially in view of earlier rate-cutting by some commercial banks. Growth in M 2 over the March-April period under current money market conditions is expected to move up in a 7-11 per cent annual rate range, however, because of the strengthening anticipated in M1 growth. (9) Credit demands over the next few weeks are likely to be sizable. The forward calendars suggest that new corporate bond offerings in March will be substantially above the reduced February pace and that municipal bond offerings will continue large. In addition, the Treasury is expected to raise about $6 to 9 billion in new cash between now and the mid-April tax date, although over half of these funds will probably be raised through short-term cash management bills. Business loan demands at banks are expected to remain moderately strong, but the net increase in loans outstanding may be held down in the next few weeks as proceeds of capital market financing are used to pay off earlier bank loans associated with advance refundings. (10) Given stability in the funds rate, the large near-term credit demands are likely to be financed with only slight, if any, upward pressure on other interest rates over the next few weeks. Stronger upward rate pressures might emerge if favorable economic news and sharply rising money supply figures turned bond market participants bearish. Over the longer run, in any event, the staff expects that interest rates, particularly short-term rates, would have to rise significantly further if growth in the monetary aggregates over the QIV '76-QIV '77 period is -8to be kept within the ranges adopted by the Committee. Appendix tables II and III show longer-run projections for the Federal funds rate and the velocity of money under each of the three alternatives. (11) Alternatives A and C contemplate an easing and tightening of the money market, respectively. midpoint of the 3 to 4 A decline in the funds rate to the per cent alternative A range could be accompanied by relatively modest reductions in other interest rates, if market participants were to view such a decline as temporary in light of the recent indications of strengthening economic activity. be most pronounced in the very short-term area. Rate declines would A rise in the funds rate, as under alternative C, could be accompanied by fairly substantial upward adjustments in short-term rates--of about 50 basis points or so. Increases in intermediate- and longer-term rates might be more modest, in view of rate increases that have already occurred in that area and the current relatively light dealer positions. (12) The decline in the funds rate under alternative A would probably have to be reversed shortly if the Committee is to attain growth rates in the aggregates within its longer-run ranges. The easing of the money market would generate more rapid growth in the aggregates over the next few months than under alternative B, and higher interest rates would be required later in the year to restrain growth. The tightening of the money market under alternative C would introduce monetary restraint earlier in the year and hence would require less of a rise in interest rates by year-end than either alternative A or B. Directive language (13) Given below are alternatives for the operational paragraphs of the directive. The first formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. The second formulation places main emphasis on money market conditions. As suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M1 and M 2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifi- Februarycally, at present, it expects the annual growth rates over the[DEL: 3 to 7] ____ to ____ March]MARCH-APRIL period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 6½to ____ 10½] per cent for M1 and [DEL: to____ per cent for M2. In the judgment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly average Federal funds rate of about[DEL: 4-5/8-to-4¾]____ to per cent. ____ If, giving approximately equal weight to M1 and M 2 , it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly -10from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly average Federal funds rate at about ____ per cent, so long as M1 and M 2 appear to be growing over the March-April period at annual rates within ranges of ____ to ____ per cent and ____ to ____ per cent, respectively. If, giving approximately equal weight to M1 and M 2 , it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____per cent. -11If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Appendix I Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIV '76 to QII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Nonborrowed Reserves 4.1 3.6 2.9 Total Reserves 4.4 4.2 4.1 Monetary Base 7.5 7.5 7.4 Growth in both nonborrowed and total reserves from the fourth quarter of 1976 to the first quarter of this year is estimated at about a 2.5 per cent annual rate, below the longer-run growth rates for reserve aggregates shown in the table above. Over the same period, the monetary base grew at a 7.0 per cent annual rate, near the longer-run growth rate expected for this measure. in the second quarter. Reserves are expected to grow more rapidly In that period, required reserves will increase sharply because of a temporary increase in the public's holdings of reservable deposits resulting from the proposed tax rebates and social security payments. Appendix II Projected Federal Funds Rate, 1977 QI Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 4 4-5/8 4% QII 5 5k 5k QIII 6 6 6 QIV 6% 6 6 Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates V (GNP/M1) 1977 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C I 5.4 5.4 5.4 II 4.9 5.3 5.8 III 7.2 7.2 7.2 IV 8.3 7.8 7.4 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 II 2.7 3.2 3.9 III 4.0 4.0 4.3 IV 6.4 5.6 4.6 V2 (GNP/M2 1977 3/11/77 CHART 1 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 -300 JI I I II 280 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 1975 1976 1977 1976' F 1977 CHART 2 3/11/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 530 510 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 36 35 34 1975 1977 CHART 3 3/11/77 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT --1 9 INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT WEEKLY AVERAGES -10 9 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE 8 IERAL FUNDS RATE 7 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - - 1 IWED 5 1 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 Table 1 MONETARY AGGREGATES MAR. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 11, 1977 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2) Period 1 Adjusted Total Credit U.S. Govt. Deposits Proxy 2 3 4 539.0 540.8 539.6 (542.2) 10.1 10.2 11.7 ( 10.9) Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'S Other Savin Total 6 5 Nondeposit Mmber Sources of U Govt. Funds Deposits 8 7 9 10 11 9.4 8.3 7.5 7.7) 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.6) MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976-OEC. 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. 312.2 313.6 313.8 (315.5 739.7 745.4 749.5 (754.5) 490.7 494.8 499.0 (501.2) 427.4 431.8 435.8 (439.0) 201.4 205.0 207.1 (209.0) 226.0 226.7 228.6 1230.0) 63.3 63.1 63.3 I 62.2) I 1 X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. ( 4.5 7.3 4.2) ( 4.2 6.3 4.5) ( 10.5 13.0 8.0) ( 9.2 12.3 9.4) ( 8.1 5.4 0.8 6.5) ( 3.6) ( 1.9 11.5 2.4) ( 4.0 8.3 5.1) ( 12.6 9.2 6.6 8.0) ( 7.3) I 6.5 15.1 8.6) I 7.3 11.8 11.6) ( 10.8 4.0 -2.7 5.8) ( 1.6) ( 15.0 17.1 10.9) ( 13.0 16.8 13.1) ( 16.1 10.0 10.2 5.3) ( 7.8) 1 19.0 28.7 15.1) I 13.4 26.9 20.5) ( 15.6 12.4 11.1 8.8) I 28.0 21.5 12.3 11.0) 1 4.3 3.7 10.1 7.3) ( 10.0) 1 11.7) 1 8.7) ( 11.7 7.2 7.1) I 1 12.5 8.2 6.4) -24.6 -18.9 ( 1.9) 21.2 -3.8 3.8 ( -20.9) -40.5 1.3 -7.0) QUARTERLY-AV 19T6-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. MONTHLY 1976-DEC. 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. FEB.-MAR. ( -8.6) WEEKLY LEVELS-$BIL 1977-JAN. 12 19 26 314.6 313.7 312.9 746.0 745.6 745.9 541.4 540.6 540.8 10.6 10.2 10.1 494.7 494.3 495.5 431.4 431.9 433.0 204.7 205.0 205.9 226.7 226.9 227.1 63.3 62.4 62.5 8.0 8.3 8.5 3.8 3.4 2.9 FEB. 2 9 16 23 312.7 313.7 314.8 313.7 745.7 748.6 750.5 750.2 539.7 538.8 540.9 538.9 9.9 12.3 11.7 11.7 495.8 498.4 499.4 499.7 433.0 435.0 435.8 436.5 205.9 206.7 207.0 207.5 227.1 228.3 228.8 229.1 62.8 63.5 63.6 63.1 7.8 7.2 7.3 7.8 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.0 313.1 749.9 540.3 11.6 499.6 436.9 207.6 229.3 62.7 7.7 2.4 MAR. 2 P NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. 1/ INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. P - PRELIMINARY CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 MAR. 11, 1977 - BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period REQUIRED RESERVES Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 34,465 34,778 34,410 (34,241) 34,412 34,710 34,339 (34,206) 118,051 119,102 119,094 (119,546) 34,191 34,512 34,197 (34,0061 20,216 20,634 20,416 (20,321) 11,916 12,044 12,058 (12,140) c,059 1,833 1.723 ( 1,545) ( 0.6 7.6 -2.61 1.3 7.7 -2.4) 6.1 8.0 5.1) ( 0.7 6.8 -2.21 ( 3.8 1.6 2.11 ( -5.2 8.0 7.51 ( 2.7 4.4 2.51 ( 2.4 4.0 2.7) I 3.0 3.2 4.5) ( -0.7 -0.7 9.7) MONTHLY LEVELS-SHILLIONS 1976-DEC. 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. ( I QUARTERLy-AV 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. 1977-1ST QTR. ( 2.6 4.8 2.7) ( 6.3 7.1 6.8) MONTHLY 1976--DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR FEB.-MAR. 4.9 10.9 -12.7 ( -5.9) 5.6 10.4 -12.8 I -4.6) ( 7.7 10.7 -0.1 4.6) I 1 ( 2.2) -9.3) -8.7) 4.3 11.3 -11.0 I -6.7) -6.8 24.8 -12.7 ( -5.61 ( 16.0 12.9 1.4 8.2) ( I ( 4.8) -8.8) -9.1) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1977-FEB. 2 9 16 23 34,561 34,545 34,437 34,248 34,475 34,470 34,308 34,211 119,067 118,879 1199010 119,282 34,431 34,289 34,273 33,968 20,514 20,261 20,452 20,419 11,994 12,018 12,016 12,102 1,923 2,010 1,805 1,446 MAR. 2 9 34,351 34,064 34.321 34,044 119,258 118,615 34,189 33,774 20,539 20,289 12,139 12,119 1,511 1,365 U NOTES I i I I _____-& _________ RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Period Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Within 1-year -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 Federal Agsncies Net Purchases 3/ Net Purchases 4/ 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 Total 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 1,582 IV 1,294 74 385 234 315 1,006 I II Ill IV -363 115 554 226 156 1,052 2,067 45 109 171 77 796 881 794 245 345 232 134 160 192 1,284 1,557 1,294 129 580 272 95 1,077 Oct. Nov. Dec. 1977--Jan. Feb. 1)77--Jan. Feb. Mar. 5 12 19 26 18 59 113 681 62 170 73 119 266 1,029 2,222 -o91 45 107 475 348 128 151 48 81 695 687 -71 -45 184 1,098 15 439 48 35 537 -27 -- -- -475 128 -48 -677 18 - -- -- 107 348 151 - -- 2 Q 2 1 -- -253 -368 -- Within 1-year 5 - 10 1 - 5 58 141 71 Over 10 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 284 2,626 -1,403 535 240 1,022 3,371 1,398 436 1,256 1,654 392 304 - S -- -37 -41 - 36 115 - ----- -- .- -- - --- --- --- -.. 18 - - 81 687 -- -- -- - --- -- - 3.4 1.2 -.. --- - 1,954 633 409 -377 403 -1,742 -3,930 5,976 2,908 -45 -6,877 1,931 465 -6,349 -1,231 -3,305 4,191 -45 181 1,772 720 -24 681 -278 - Net RP's 6/ 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 14 ---- -- Outright Holdings Total 5/ Total 115 S 1977 Net Change 592 400 1,665 824 469 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1976--Sept. MARCH 11, Treasury Coupons 1975--Qtr. -886 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC 1/ -- -371 6.8 102.8 -7,198 6,641 -946 2,179 -3,071 -3,576 23 30 LEVEL Mar. 2 kin billions) 39.7 10.5 30.4 9.8 56.1 5.4 .8 1' 2' Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Exclude redamptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). 4 5' o' and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U. S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills (1) 7,029 1975--High Low 1,586 8,896 1976--High Low 3,668 Coupon Issues (2) 2,845 253 Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 11, 1977 Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB** Excess** Reserves Total Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others (8) (9) -7,387 -11,632 -1,757 - 7,207 3,046 175 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 - 6,908 1976--Feb. Mar. 5.214 5,910 1,051 778 181 151 256 223 81 54 -4,138 -4,726 -10,015 - 9,640 Apr. May June 5,570 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 133 199 196 155 210 214 43 114 127 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 July Aug. Sept. 5,743 904 1,686 1,509 211 116 172 234 207 205 132 100 63 -4,756 -4,624 -5,703 - 9,399 Oct. Nov. Dec. 6,271 6,876 8,005 1,832 2,418 2,443 258 217 167 221 257 274 94 72 53 -6,428 -6,289 -7,168 -10,527 -11,618 -11,449 1977--Jan. Feb. 6,406 *4,450 2,320 *1,605 202 226 265 2 12 68 72p -6,421 -5,604 -11,504 -11,503 5 7,123 7,141 7,234 3,017 2,680 1,958 2,243 188 195 222 204 513 404 -111 424 31 20 109 89 -6,719 -8,742 -7,244 -5,490 - 9,656 12 139 204 228 333 130 256 164 280p 86 75 129 37 p -4,293 -5,680 -6,288 -5,589 - 9,905 *4,583 *5,098 1,694 2,385 *1,623 *969 *4,232 *5,174 *913 *354 155 120p 162p 294p 30p 20p -4,741p -6,334p -10, 9 3 0 p -11,083p 1977-Jan. 6,174 7,838 19 26 Feb. Mar. 2 9 16 23 2 9 16 23 30 5,917 3,720 4,371 p - 8,151 - 9,158 - 9,691 - 9,716 -12,483 -12,993 -10,913 -12,294 -11,482 -11,090 NOTE: Goverent security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, wiich exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserve and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 11, 1977 Mortgages F, [IFeq Fed eral FuLnds (1) Short-term Treasury Bills Commercial Paper 90-Day 1-Year 90-119 Day (2) (3) (4) CD's New Issue-NYC (9) (10) (11) (12) 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 9.59 8.80 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 7.52 5.65 7.89 6.33 8.94 7.84 7.13 5.83 9.10 8.70 9.20 8.39 8.45 7.57 5.13 5.25 4.84 5.05 7.06 7.13 7.77 7.65 8.63 8.61 6.94 6.92 8.81 8.76 9.06 9.05 8.29 8.30 5.54 5.98 6.12 5.08 5.44 5.83 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 6.84 7.27 7.32 7.44 7.77 7.76 7.86 8.13 8.03 8.48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 6.60 6.87 6.87 8.73 8.77 8.85 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 5.82 5.64 5.50 5.54 4.35 5.33 5.30 5.23 5.11 5.42 5.31 5.24 7.12 6.86 6.66 7.70 7.58 7.41 8.00 7.91 7.78 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 6.79 6.61 6.51 8.93 9.00 8.98 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.37 8.30 8.10 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.19 5.00 4.64 5.10 4.98 4.66 4.90 4.84 4.48 5.04 4.94 4.50 6.24 6.09 5.68 7.16 6.86 6.37 7.70 7.64 7.30 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 6.30 5.94 8.93 8.81 8.79 8.75 8.66 8.45 7.98 7.93 7.59 4.61 4.68 4.62 4.67 5.00 5.16 4.72 4.76 4.61 4.58 4.68 4.70 6.22 6.44 6.92 7.16 7.48 7.64 8.08 8.22 8.09 8.19 5.87 5.89 8.72 8.67 8.48 8.55 7.83 7.98 5 12 19 26 4.47 4.55 4.65 4.72 4.41 4.58 4.62 4.68 4.67 4.89 5.03 5.12 4.63 4.68 4.75 4.75 4.48 4.65 4.63 4.70 5.83 6.20 6.33 6.48 6.59 6.97 6.99 7.09 7.26 7.50 7.54 7.59 7.90 8.05 8.10 8.22 7.95 8.06 8.15 8.18 5.78 5.89 5.90 5.92 8.70 8.73 8.73 8.73 -8.46 -8.49 7.56 7.92 7.92 7.92 2 9 16 23 4.60 4.66 4.70 4.74 4.74 4.64 4.62 4.67 5.25 5.16 5.09 5.13 4.80 4.78 4.75 4.75 4.70 4.61 4.50 4.50 6.54 6.39 6.35 6.51 7.17 7.12 7.13 7.24 7.63 7.60 7.61 7.71 8.15 8.14 8.12 8.26 5.93 5.86 5.83 5.92 8.68 8.70 8.65 8.65 -8.52 -8.58 7.95 7.92 7.96 7.99 2 9 16 23 30 4.68 4.63 4.70 4.64 5.25 5.23 4.75 4.75 4.63 4.63 6.49 6.52p 7.22 7.24p 7.75 7 .77p 8.27 8.28p 5.92 5.92 8.65 n.a. -8.66 8.06 8.08 3 10 4.68 4.65p 4.61 4.62 5.20 5.22 6.43 6.51p 7.17 7.22p 7.73 6 7.7 p 7.88 5.25 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 6.32 4.62 5.90 4.63 1976--Feb. Mar. 4.77 5.53 5.82 Apr. May June 4.82 5.29 5.48 July Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.29 5.25 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.03 4.95 4.65 1977--Jan. Feb. Daily-Mar. (8) 5.63 4.40 8.43 5.38 Mar. (7) Home Mortgages Primary Home Secondary Market Cony. FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec. (14) (15) (13) 8.50 7.18 7.31 5.46 4.84 7.75 5.38 S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 7-yr 20-yr 3-yr 8.44 6.46 7.70 5.13 Feb. (6) (5) 1975--High Low 1977--Jan. 90-Day 60-Day U. Long- term Municipal Corp.-Aaa Utility Bond Recently New Buyer Issue Offered 4.77 4.77 - - 8.63 7.63 8.18 8.28 8 -.30p 8.17 6.29 NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MAR. 11, MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES BANK CrEIT BANK RESERVES y Period Period Total Noonborrowd 1 MOMEY STOCK MEASURES r Base MEASURES Adj. Crdit proxy Total Loans nd Investmeants M1 4 5 6 2 2 (Per cent annual rates of grwth) I' " ANNUALLY: 7.2 1974 1975 1976 -0.5 1.3 9.4 1.3 1.6 9.3 5.8 6.9 Ir " . 3.9 4.9 1977 1.2 8.5 11.4 M3 M4 M5 M6 a 9 10 11 6.7 11.4 13.2 10.6 6.4 7.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 8.8 10.8 M7 9.0 10.6 10.6 10.2 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1975 0.3 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1976 1976 -1.4 4.1 0.9 5.8 3.5 4.5 6.9 10.2 5.7 9.2 -1.4 4.5 6.5 7.1 3.0 6.8 4.9 7.6 10.2 11.9 11.7 13.8 5.9 9.0 8.9 11.9 -5.8 3.1 0.6 7.6 -5.0 2.2 1.3 7.7 4.8 8.2 6.1 8.0 1.9 4.0 1.9 11.5 5.5 4.3 7.2 7.9 11.0 9.1 10.5 13.0 12.4 10.7 13.0 14.2 5.0 6.6 5.8 12.0 -3.7 -3.0 5.4 2.6 2.2 4.0 8.3 3.8 5.4 6.0 8.7 9.9 10.5 9.2 12.3 11.5 11.8 11.4 14.3 5.4 6.4 6.1 9.6 4.4 1.2 2.1 6.1 5.3 14.9 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.1 1.2 13.7 0.0 8.1 14.1 13.5 3.5 0.7 1.6 12.1 11.3 10.8 5.9 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 7.1 8.2 6.1 12.2 9.4 2.0 14.6 10.0 14.2 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.5 13.3 7.7 3.8 9.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 2.2 6.2 13.4 9.3 4.0 -2.7 9.0 14.8 5.4 0.8 10.7 8.9 11.1 9.3 11.4 QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 8.5 9.0 9.9 8.6 9.0 13.5 12.t 8.6 9.6 9.5 13.0 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.2 11.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 11.6 10.1 7.6 11.0 7.5 1.5 11.8 7.0 8.6 10.0 7.5 14.6 14.7 10., 12.4 11.1 12.7 9.4 7.6 9.8 7.9 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH OTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 0.6 2.7 4.4 0.4 2.6 4.8 8.2 6.3 7.1 12.5 MONTHLY: 1977-JAN. FEB. NOTE S: 1/ P - -6.2 -4.8 6.0 11.8 4.9 4.9 12.6 5.6 3.8 7.2 11.2 8.0 5.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7 10.9 -12.7 10.4 -12.8 10.7 -0.1 -6.0 1976-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. -1.7 0.9 4.1 4.1 2.0 5.9 P -6.2 -0.7 1.3 1.6 3.7 1.8 7.0 -3.7 * I h iIU ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOS1 ITS RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY 7.8 14.1 8.9 4.3 12.0 9.0 10.1 15.7 10.1 - 16.8 12.6 12.3 13.0 9.2 6.6 11.2 8.7 rl 10.6 7.3 11.1 7.3 8.3 10.9 13.0 7.9 10.9 15.3 11.5 13.4 8.2 6.5 10.4 8.4 SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, . 11.l, 8.2 9.3 12.1 7.3 8.8 - LOANS SOLD TO BANK- APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES MAR. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Period Total Total Nonborrowed Monetary Base Adj. Credit proxy Total Loans and Invest- 1977 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES 11, M M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 7 8 9 10 11 12 ments 1 2 3 4 5 6 ANNUALLYI 34,174 34,015 34,465 33,447 33,885 34,412 104,380 110,394 118,051 494.6 513.8 539.0 695.2 725.5 771.6 283.1 294.8 312.2 612.4 664.3 739.7 981.5 1092.9 1236.9 701.4 746.5 802.9 1070.5 1175.1 1300.2 1181.2 1308.7 1442.8 1221.6 1351.3 1494.2 1976--FEB. MAR. 33,566 33,519 33,485 33,465 111,041 111,707 515.8 516.3 731.2 735.4 296.8 298.1 678.2 682.6 1117.5 1126.8 753.5 755.9 1192.9 1200.2 1328.5 1336.9 1371. 1380.5 APR. MAY JUNE 33,545 33,661 33,776 33,501 33,546 33,650 112,747 113,498 114,009 517.Z 515.6 521.4 738.7 742.0 743.3 301.8 303.5 303.2 690.6 695.7 698.2 1140.1 1150.1 1156.9 761.8 764.3 768.4 1211.3 1218.7 1227.1 1349.1 1357.5 1367.1 1393.4 1402.9 1413.8 JULY AUG. SEPT. 33,833 33,998 33,823 33,701 33.897 33,761 114,625 115,252 115,739 522.9 523.2 523.9 747.7 752.8 756.6 305.0 306.3 306.6 705.2 710.5 716.5 1169.2 1181.4 1194.5 774.1 775.5 779.5 1238.2 1246.3 1257.6 1380.5 1388. 1398.6 1428.1 1436.6 1447.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. 33,992 34,325 34,465 33,898 34,253 34,412 116,424 117,303 118,051 529.2 534.2 539.0 764.3 770.3 771.6 310.1 310.1 312.2 725.9 732.0 739.7 1211.2 1223.6 1236.9 788.2 794.3 802.9 1273.6 1285.8 1300.2 1415.6 1428.1 1442.8 1465.0 1478.5 L494.2 34,778 34,410 34,710 34,339 119,102 119,094 540.8 539.6 777.4 787.0 313.6 313.8 745.4 749.5 1248.4 1257.4 808.4 812.8 1311.5 1320.7 1454.1 1463.3 1506.4 1516.3 5 12 19 26 34,933 34,616 34,707 35,053 34,902 34,596 34,598 34,964 118,922 118,736 119,024 119,697 543.2 541.4 540.6 540.8 315.2 314.6 313.7 312.9 745.4 746.0 745.6 745.9 810.1 809.3 808.0 808.4 2 9 16 23P 34,561 34,545 34,437 34,248 34,475 34,470 34,308 34,211 119,067 118,879 119,010 119,282 539.7 538.8 540.9 538.9 312.7 313.7 314.8 313.7 745.7 748.6 750.5 750.2 808.5 812.1 814.2 813.4 2P 34,351 34,321 119,258 540.3 313.1 749.9 812.7 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY 1977-JAN. FEB. P WEEKLY: 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. NOTESt ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY 1TOAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.ANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY MAR. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 11, 1977 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES III Commercial Paper-1/ Period (Pr ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 10.2 8.7 9.5 cent annual rates of growth) 14.9 8.0 8.6 9.4 12.2 15.6 7.0 17.8 25.5 11.2 8.2 8.1 41.3 -7.8 -22.9 5.5 15.8 15.9 15.3 9.7 40.1 6.5 17.1 5.4 20.9 18.5 52.0 5.3 12.7 0.3 19.2 20.6 9.4 28.4 17.1 23.0 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1975 7.9 1.0 7.7 10.4 16.0 6.1 -3.6 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 10.3 8.3 4.2 5.3 6.0 10.9 13.8 16.4 23.6 24.5 6.4 9.6 -29.0 -19.7 13.9 16.7 15.7 10.9 9.5 8.8 7.6 2.5 5.8 3.2 7.4 5.4 6.6 6.5 15.1 16.0 11.1 15.0 17.1 32.4 13.6 19.0 28.7 3.8 8.9 11.7 7.2 -42.4 -17.4 -40.5 1.3 14.5 12.8 16.9 15.9 15.7 15.1 17.9 18.2 12.0 12.9 -1.7 2.3 9.8 11.2 7.8 8.7 0.9 7.1 5.4 7.3 11.8 15.3 12.4 13.0 16.8 28.3 21.7 13.4 26.9 5.6 4.9 12.5 8.2 -29.8 -30.1 -24.6 -18.9 13.9 13.6 14.7 17.1 17.2 15.3 15.9 18.5 23.8 11.8 10.3 -4.5 17.3 19.4 23.7 18.3 11.3 11.2 14.3 11.0 3.1 9.3 7.7 9.2 10.6 6.0 6.0 3.8 3.2 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 4.8 -1.6 15.3 -2.6 9.0 2.9 5.8 1.8 12.0 9.8 0.0 9.7 13.2 15.3 16.1 20.5 17.6 15.6 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 28.0 2.3 -1.1 6.8 3.4 16.4 18.9 3.8 12.0 6.5 10.8 4.3 -45.9 -31.8 -36.0 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2 15.6 13.0 14.1 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.2 18.0 15.3 13.8 14.3 14.1 17.4 13.8 13.6 16.8 16.6 19.6 19.3 15.8 18.8 5.3 14.2 12.3 12.2 13.8 34.0 -11.6 -26.7 10.2 -3.4 0.0 2.8 5.5 19.3 32.5 31.6 23.1 15.1 12.4 17.2 24.3 26.2 8.9 10.3 3.6 -3.1 10.0 10.2 12.4 11.1 21.5 12.3 3.7 10.1 -3.8 3.8 13.6 11.1 15.4 18.2 -5.1 -6.8 18.6 16.1 18.5 QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH OTR. OTR. OTR. QTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH OTR. QTR. QTR. OTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 7.0 2.8 5.8 MONTHLYt 1976-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. FEB. 1/ P - P 9.4 I i GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. 9.8 14.0 9.9 9.2 15.5 11.7 17.2 17.3 I i - MONTHLY AVERAGE I LEVELS DERIVED A A BY AVERAGING A - I I I 1 END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF MAR. APPENDIX 2-B TABLE COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES iutual6 Time and Savings Depeks Currency Demand Deposits Period Other Than CD's Tot Total ___________ CD jSavingsl Other C nk S&L Shares 1 SharesI IL Credit Credit Union Savin Shares Bonds Tem RossU.S. Gov't Sac $/ 1 Com.n Commercial Paper 11, 1977 Non Total NonGov't Deposit Funds Demand jy 12 epsit 14 *9 10 341.5 395.5 458.3 27.6 33.1 39.0 63.3 67.3 71.9 47.4 66.4 70.7 40.4 42.6 51.5 8.4 8.4 9.4 5.6 7.6 10.1 75.4 73.4 405.4 409.8 34.0 34.4 68.0 68.3 67.6 68.4 43.4 43.6 8.0 8.2 10.9 10.9 212.2 212.8 215.7 71.2 68.6 70.2 414.6 419.1 422.9 34.9 35.3 35.7 68.7 69.0 69.4 69.1 69.8 70.6 44.3 45.5 46.7 7.5 7.6 8.5 7.2 7.4 9.8 181.1 184.4 187.9 219.1 219.8 222.0 68.9 65.0 63.1 427.8 434.2 440.8 36.2 36.7 37.3 69.8 70.3 70.8 72.6 71.9 70.3 47.6 48.2 48.7 8.8 9.0 8.4 9.0 13.8 13.1 415.8 421.9 427.4 192.6 196.8 201.4 223.2 225.2 226.0 62.3 62.2 63.3 447.4 453.1 458.3 37.9 38.4 39.0 71.1 71.5 71.9 70.9 70.7 70.7 49.4 50.4 51.5 9.2 9.3 9.4 13.9 13.5 10.1 494.8 499.0 431.8 435.8 205.0 207.1 226.7 228.6 63.1 63.3 463.5 467.8 39.5 40.1 72.3 72.7 70.4 70.0 52.3 53.0 8.3 7.5 10.2 11.7 234.3 233.4 232.3 231.1 494.9 494.7 494.3 495.5 430.2 431.4 431.9 433.0 203.1 204.7 205.0 205.9 227.1 226.7 226.9 227.1 64.7 63.3 62.4 62.5 9.0 8.0 8.3 8.5 10.2 10.6 10.2 1041 81.7 81.8 81.9 82.3 231.0 231.8 232.9 231.4 495.8 498.4 499.4 499.7 433.0 435.0 435.8 436.5 205.9 206.7 207.0 207.5 227.1 228.3 228.8 229.1 62.8 63.5 63.6 63.1 7.8 7.2 7.3 7.8 9.9 12.3 11.7 11.7 82.1 231.0 499.6 436.9 207.6 229.3 62.7 7.7 11.6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 67.8 73.7 80.7 215.3 221.0 231.6 418.3 451.7 490.7 329.3 369.6 427.4 136.2 160.5 201.4 193.1 209.0 226.0 89.0 82.1 63.3 1976-FEB. MAR. 75.0 75.7 221.8 222.4 456.7 457.8 381.3 384.4 170.2 173.5 211.2 211.0 APR. MAY JUNE 76.6 77.3 77.5 225.2 226.2 225.6 460.0 460.7 465.3 388.9 392.1 395.1 176.7 179.4 179.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. 78.1 78.6 79.2 226.8 227.7 227.4 469.1 469.1 472.9 400.2 404.1 409.9 OCT. NOV. DEC. 79.9 80.3 80.7 230.3 229.8 231.6 478.1 484.2 490.7 81.3 82.0 232.3 231.7 5 12 19 26 80.9 81.2 81.4 81.7 FEB. 2 9 16 23P MAR. 2P 1 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY: 1977--JAN. FEB. P WEEKLYt 1977-JAN. 1/ 2/ P - ESTIMATED MONTHLY INCLUDES TREASURY PRELIMINARY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.
@FedFRASER