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March 12, 1976 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) March 12, 1976 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments (1) Incoming data since the February FOMC meeting suggest that M1 is growing at about a 6 per cent annual rate in the FebruaryMarch period, somewhat below the mid-point of its range. Continuing strength in time deposits other than large CD's (particularly in savings deposits) has sustained M2 growth. Over February-March, M2 is now expected to expand at a little more than an 11 per cent annual rate, near the midpoint of its range. (2) Growth in total bank loans has remained quite modest, as business demands for short-term credit have continued to be weak; business loans at banks declined at a 5.3 per cent annual rate in February. Banks have continued to allow CD's to run off in volume, as inflows of other time and savings deposits have remained large. They have also added further to their security holdings, particularly Treasury coupon issues in the 1-5 year maturity area. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over February-March Period Reserve and monetary aggregates Ranges Latest Estimates M1 5 to 9 6.1 M2 9 to 13 11.4 -4½ to -½ -5.1 (Growth at SAAR. in per cent) RPD Avg. for statement Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 4¼ to 5¼ week ending Feb. 18 25 4.70 4.80 3 4.95 10 4.86 Mar. -2(3) Late in February, incoming data suggested that growth in the aggregates was strengthening rather considerably. The rate of expansion in M2 appeared to be at the upper limit of the range specified by the Committee, and growth in M1 was above its mid-point. Accordingly, the Desk decided to shade its Federal funds rate target from 4¾ per cent to a 4¾--4-7/8 per cent range. However--with incoming information at the time pointing to a strengthening of economic activity--banks overreacted to the Desk's willingness to permit some additional firming in the money market, and for a while began bidding aggressively for Federal funds. As a result, the effective funds rate was above 5 per cent on several days of the statement week, and the average for the week rose to 4.95 per cent. Subsequently, with additional data indicating that growth in M1 and M2 over the February-March period might be well within the ranges, the Desk has operated to return the funds rate to the 4¾ per cent area. (4) The firming in money market conditions at the end of February, coupled with published data which at the time indicated a substantial strengthening in the monetary aggregates, resulted in a general advance of short-term rates of 1/8 to 1/2 a percentage point, with the largest increases in the bill area. With the recent easing in the funds market, however, short-term rates have dropped back, and are now only about 10-25 basis points above levels prevailing at the time of the February FOMC meeting. Bond market rates showed little net change over the intermeeting period, as declines in late February--which carried -3rates on some high quality corporate issues td their lowest levels in 2 years--were reversed in early March when short-term rates rose and the forward calendar of new issues increased. Mortgage rates have edged down slightly on balance recently, as deposit inflows at thrift institutions have remained strong. (5) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Calendar Year Calendar Year 1974 1975 Past Past Six Months Feb. '76 over Three Months Feb. '76 over Aug. '75 Nov. '75 Past Month Feb. '76 over Jan. '75 Total reserves 7.1 -. 4 -1.4 -5.2 -6.1 Nonborrowed reserves 9.2 1.3 -0.6 -5.4 -6.3 7.4 -1.1 -1.4 -3.2 -5.0 4.7 4.2 2.5 1.6 6.5 M 2 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 7.2 8.3 8.1 9.3 14.3 M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 6.8 11.2 10.4 10.9 14.5 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.6 6.3 6.3 4.8 6.7 M (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 9.6 9.1 8.0 9.6 10.2 3.9 5.1 1.6 4,9 9.2 4.3 4.1 2.0 8.1 2,2 -.6 -.6 -2.1 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's -3.8 Nonbank commercial paper .4 -.2 -.3 .5 .4 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. 2/ Based on month-end figures. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institu- tions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures, Growth rates p reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Alternative shorter-run operating ranges for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate are summarized below for Committee consideration. More detailed figures, as well as longer-run growth rates, are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 4 to 8 3½ to 7½ 3 to 7 M2 8 to 12 6¾ to 10¾ 6 to 10 Ranges for March-April RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) (7) -2 to 2 -2½ to 1½ -3 to 1 3¾ to 4¾ 4¼ to 5¼ 4¾ to 5¾ The Federal funds rate under alternative B is centered on 4¾ per cent, the funds rate level most recently sought by the Desk. Given such a funds rate, over the March-April period M1 is expected to expand in a 3½-7½ per cent annual rate range. Tax refunds are likely to con- tribute somewhat to growth in demand deposits in March. As April progresses, however, payments by the Treasury will probably be moderating and might be more than offset by the public's drawing down balances that had been built up by earlier refunds. Thus, M 1 growth during the March-April period is expected to depend essentially on transactions demands associated with the projected relatively rapid expansion in nominal GNP. Our expectation for money growth over the next two months assumes some continued downward shift in money demand. -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 February March April 296.9 298.3 299.9 296.9 298.3 299.6 296.9 298.3 299.4 677.0 681.8 688.3 677.0 681.8 687.0 677.0 681.8 686.2 1115.6 1125.3 1137.2 1115.6 1125.3 1135.5 1105.6 1125.4 1134.3 1975 QIV 294.7 294.7 294,7 660.2 660.2 660.2 1084.5 1084.5 1084.5 1976 QI QII 296.8 302.2 307.8 312.4 296.8 296,8 301.8 307.1 312.4 675.9 695.4 712.0 725.2 675.9 693.3 710.1 724.7 675.9 692.2 707.9 723.8 1114.4 1149,7 1179.7 1203.9 1114.4 1146.5 1176.6 1202.8 1114.4 8.5 7.7 10.4 12.7 10.4 10.9 10.4 9,5 10,3 9.7 8,2 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.0 11.0 12.7 10.4 8.2 11.0 11.5 10.5 8.9 11,0 10.7 9.9 9.8 10.0 9.1 9.7 9.1 12.0 9.4 11.4 9.8 11.0 10.0 9.6 11.0 10.9 10.8 QIII QIV 301.9 307.4 312.4 1144.3 1172.6 1201,3 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 March April 5.7 6.4 5.7 4.4 8.5 11.4 8.5 9.1 9.4 Quarterly Average: QI QII QIII QIV 2,9 7.3 7.4 6.0 2.9 6.9 7.3 6.5 2,9 6.7 7.0 6.9 9.5 11.5 9.5 QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76 5.1 6.8 4.9 7.0 4.8 7.0 10,7 QIV '75-QIV '76 6.0 6.0 6.0 1976 Committee Longer-run Growth Ranges QIV '75-QIV '76 4% to 74 7.4 8.6 9.8 9.8 74 to 10 9 to 12 -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C February March April 752.4 753.9 759.1 752.4 753.8 758.6 752.4 758.3 1191.0 1197.4 1207.9 1191.0 1197.4 1207.1 1191.0 1197.4 1206.3 516.2 515.0 517.8 516.2 515.0 517.7 516.2 515.0 517.6 1975 QIV 742.1 742.1 742.1 1166.3 1166.3 1166.3 512.2 512.2 512.2 1976 QI QII QIII QIV 751.5 765.9 783.7 799.1 751.5 764.7 782.7 798.8 751.5 764.2 781.3 798.1 1190.0 1220.2 1251.5 1277.8 1190.0 1217.9 1249.2 1276.9 1190.0 1216.3 1246.0 1275.5 515.1 522.0 534.3 543.9 515.1 521.5 533.8 543.7 515.1 521.3 533.1 543.2 1976 753.8 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 March April 2.4 8.3 2.2 6.8 6.4 8.8 6.4 10.5 -2.8 6.5 -2.8 6.3 -2.8 6.1 Quarterly Averages: 1976 QI 8.1 QIV 5.1 7.7 9,3 7.9 5.1 7.0 9.4 8.2 5.1 6.8 9.0 8.6 QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76 6.4 8.7 6.1 8.9 6.0 8.9 9.2 9.4 QIV '75-QIV '76 7.7 7.6 7.5 9.6 QII QIII 10.2 10.3 8.4 8.1 9.4 10.3 8.9 2.3 5.4 9.4 7.2 2.3 5.0 9.4 7.4 2.3 4.8 9.1 7.6 8.8 9.7 3.8 8.4 3.6 8.5 3.6 8.4 6.2 6.1 6.1 9.4 (8) M 2 under alternativeB is projected to rise in a 6-10 per cent annual rate range in the March-April period. deposits Growth in time other than money market CD's is expected to slow from its exceptional January-February pace, when inflows were being influenced by the initial shift of funds in response to the decline in short-term market rates to levels near or below 5 per cent. Nevertheless, such deposits will probably grow at a still fairly substantial 11¼ per cent annual rate over the March-April period. Short-term rates under alterna- tive B would be expected to change little between now and the next Committee meeting, although they could rise a bit toward the end of the period, reflecting mid-April tax date pressures. (9) The staff continues to believe that interest rates will have to rise later in the year--perhaps beginning in late spring--if a 6 per cent rate of growth in M1 from QIV '75 to QIV '76 is to be achieved. Under alternative B, we have assumed that the Federal funds rate will average about 6½ per cent in the fourth quarter of 19 7 6 .1/This represents somewhat less upward rate pressure than assumed in the previous blue book, and reflects the need for a little more expansion in M1 over the last three quarters of the year to make up for the fact that growth in the first quarter of 1976 is now expected to be somewhat slower than anticipated a month ago. Under these assumptions, M2 growth over the period from QIV '75 to QIV '76 would be about 9¾ per cent--somewhat above the mid-point of the Committee's one-year range. (10) Alternatives A and C call for an easing and tightening of the money market, respectively, in the period before the next 1/ See appendix table IV for long-run projections of the Federal funds rate. -7Committee meeting. Through the summer months, alternative A would encourage somewhat more growth in M1 and M2, and alternative C less.than would alternative B. But if M1 and M 2 are to grow over the year. from QIV '75 to QIV '76 at rates near the mid-points of their respective oneyear ranges, the near-term declines in interest rates anticipated under alternative A would be short-lived, and rates would begin rising, perhaps by late spring. We have assumed that under alternative A the funds rate would average about 6¾ per cent in the fourth quarter of 1976. On the other hand, the greater near-term restraint of alternative C would mean that more monetary expansion would be required later in 1976 to achieve the Committee's longer-run targets. Under this alternative, interest rates would be likely to cease rising in late summer, with the funds rate leveling out at around 6 per cent. (11) The staff expects that under all three alternatives business credit demands at banks would remain weak over the next month or two and that the bank credit proxy will show relatively little growth. Later in the year, as business working capital needs expand, business loan demand on banks will probably pick up. raise funds in the CD market. In response, banks may begin to However, the need to do so may be small since we expect that flows into other deposits--though slowing somewhat as the year progresses in reflection of rising market interest rates--will be generally sufficient to finance demands on banks. (12) The forward calendar for corporate and municipal bonds appears to be relatively substantial over the next few weeks. In addition, -8the Treasury may raise some cash through an offering of intermediateor longer-term coupon issues. Nevertheless, if the money market remains stable--as is assumed under alternative B--long-term interest rates are likely to remain around current levels in view of the strong institutional investor interest in bonds that has developed since the beginning of the year. A tightening of the money market, as contemplated under alternative C, would probably cause some upward adjustment in long rates. Such a near- term adjustment may be limited, however, if borrowers postpone scheduled issues--as they may, since many of the issues now on the calendar had been accelerated to take advantage of propitious market circumstances. Proposed directive (13) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph if the Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are pre- sented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary aggregates" proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market condi- tions CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over , provided that monetary aggregates the period [DEL:immediately] ahead[DEL: appearto (14) be growing at about the rates currentlyexpected.] Should the Committee desire to continue placing main emphasis on bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Three alterna- tive "money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "money market" proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money -10- market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to maintain prevailing bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT FIMER bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIALIFR) CLASS I-FOMC 3/12/76 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 35 -V/2% growth for Feb.-Mar. -4V 2 % growth D S 1974 D M J 1975 S D M 1976 J F J RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. M A CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASSII-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUP 'PLY M1 3/12/76 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 305 300 9% growth for Feb.-Mar. 300 280 (t3/3/76) 295 5%growth PPLY M2 700 290 sea -680 I ------- I I I-- -- 690 660 13% growth for Feb.-Mar. 680 640 670 620 9% growth - so600 1974 1975 1976 - 660 / 1975 1976 CHART 3 3/12/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES USTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -540 -520 - 500 - 480 I- RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39 37 TOTAL - 35 NONBORROWED 33 - 31 1974 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT 8 INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT -1 10 INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT F- 11 - F.R. DISCOUNT RATE 7 10 EURO-DOLLARS 3-MONTH - 6 9 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH FUNDS RATE - J 4 7 - 1975 1976 1975 1976 1975 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS IIFOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES MAR. 12, 1976 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AGGREGATE RESERVES aDJUSTED RESERVES AVAILABLE RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS Period SA _-SA Total Reserves NSA NA REQUIRED RESERVES ADJUSTED_____ SEASONALLY ______SEASONALLY Total Required Nonborrowed Reserves Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--kC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 32t231 32,100 31t965 131,827) 32,558 33,170 31,982 131,570) 34,539 34,245 34,070 133,919) 34,409 34,167 33,969 133,8601 34,272 34,005 33,831 (33 705) 19,756 19,732 19,822 (19,803) 12,208 12.128 11,904 (11.810) 2,308 2,145 2,105 ( 2,092) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. QTR. 1976-~15 -1.5 0.4 ( -5.0) ( -0.8 -0.8 -2.6) 1 -0.8 1.4 -7.2) I 0.1 0.6 -4.1) 1 3.4 -3.4 1.0) ( 6.2 -2.1 0.7) I -0.7 0.5 -6.6) ( -0.1 -0.1 -3.9) ( -1.6 -U.4 -6.3 -4.6) ( 1.4 -9.3 -6.1 -4.5) ( ( -5.41 1 -5.3) 1 I -2.8 4.5 -6.4) I -1.9 2.7 -3.5) -5.7) ( -9.0 4.1 -13.0) ( -12.2 -0.6 -7.3) ( 6.3 -7.9 -22.2 -9.5) ( -15.7) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--3RO QTR. 4TM QTR. 1976--1ST OTR. MONTHLY 1975--OEC. 1976--JAN . FEB. MAR. t -5.0 -5.2) 0.8 -10.2 -6.1 1 -5.3) ( -5.1) ( 0.3 -4.9 FEB.-MAR. -2.5 -1.5 5.5 -1.2) 2.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976-FEB. MAR. NOTE: 4 11 18 25 32.021 31,730 32,307 31,716 32,660 31,742 3Z2363 31,523 34,459 33,775 34,273 33,781 34,404 33,724 34,217 33,633 34,042 33,725 33,703 33,887 19,645 19 767 19,839 19,932 11,959 11,913 11,898 11,890 2,438 2,045 1,966 2,065 3 10 32,159 31v652 31,861 31,132 34,346 33,826 34,261 33,779 33,929 33,732 19,876 19,690 11,866 11,868 2,186 2,174 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF FEB. 18, RANGE OF -4.5 TO -0.5 PERCENT FOR THE FEB.-MAR. PERIOD. IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 1976 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES MAR. 12, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period MONTHLY U.S. Govt. TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other (Ml) (M2) Proxy Deposits Total Than CD's CD's 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nondeposit Sources of Funds 8 LFVELS-SBILLIbNS Z95.0 295.3 96." (298.3) 1975--DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. PERCENT Adjusted Credit 663.3 660.0 677.0 (681.71 514.4 14.1 516.2 (515.0) ( 451.2 452.9 455.5 (455.5) .. 0 2.6 2.6 .21 368.3 373.7 380.1 (383.4) ( 82.9 79.2 75.4 72.1) ( 8.4 7.9 8.3 8.3) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975-3RD QT0. 4TH QTR. 1976--1S OTR . ( ..6 1.9 .*) ( 7.1 2.5 2.1) ( -2.8 1.2 6.5 .7) ( 0.1) -0.8 7.0 0.5) ( 6.5 t.4 11.1) ( 1C.1 6.1 9.. ) 1.4 6.0 2.2) ( 3.1 10. 14.2 8.3) 11.4) ( 2.6 11.8 3.8 ( ( 8.9 10.1 16.4) -23.8 19.2 -52.1) ( 12.7 Q. 14.9) ( 16.1 -53.6 -57.6 ( -52.5) ( -53.8) 1 QUAkTERLY-AV 175--3R0 )QTR. 4TH.OTR. 1976--IST QTR. ( 4.7 9.) 6.5) ( 0.7 -0.7 4.9 -2.8) ( 9.7 4.5 6.9 0.01 1 7.9 17.6 20.6 10.4) ( 1.1) ( 3.41 ( 15.6) -27.5 9.5 -30.8) MONTHLY 1975--DEC. 1976--JAN. FEP. MAR. FER.-MAR. I WEEKLY LEVEL5-SBILLIGNS 1Q76--JAN. 14 21 28 295.0 295.3 294.6 668.0 669.3 670.7 514.1 515.3 513.68 3.3.3 .2 452.B 452.6 453.6 372.9 374.0 376.2 79.9 78.6 77.4 4 11 18 25 2C6.4 297.1 97.9 795.9 674.3 676.7 678..3 676.8 513.9 516.4 .17.0 515.6 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 454.6 455.2 455.8 455." 377.9 379.4 380.4 381.0 76.7 75.8 75.4 74.8 7.7 8.1 P.1 296.7 678.0 514.2 2.2 455.3 381.3 74.0 7.8 FEE. HAR. 3 P N~~lL: SHOWN DATA IN PAR6NT)IESES~ *5 URN NOIEt DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT RJCIOS PROJECTIONS. P RLMNR - PPELIMINARY 7.6 8.0 7.7 8.0 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, 1976 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) ___ ~_ _ ___ _ Onen Market Oerations 1/ - ;I-------; -;;;;RF's Bills Agency Coupon T sues &A nt Tooues Net '/ A -cc I coupon I IsusZ% sue (4) (1) Fer d P r nA 1975--Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. -371 1,932 1,007 147 -608 15 -2,637 1,799 1,219 -1,590 2,008 3,597 1,205 -3,129 -404 -2,022 803 _i __ / I Tntal (5) Effects Daily Average Reserve ---L-L-Other a Member Open Market O atlnonstn Bank norrotwin -1,332 2,458 445 -2,537 3,315 1,276 521 2,567 -1,101 942 1,631 -2,426 -257 -3,515 773 1,165 Y A In Reserve .- Cat Req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. g __ s Available res. 5 (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) -50 1,210 186 -2,432 Feb. Mar. 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 7 14 21 28 -1,386 1 192 4 11 18 25 3 10 17 24 31 6,504 -583 561 6,696 -190 336 820 37 -3,534 -2,969 2,210 4,014 -3,536 -2,633 3,031 4,389 110 -3,314 -2,907 -9,653 -711 -8,835 2,551 1,605 -4,051 2,656 2,428 -93 -4,051 -205 -130 66 - 48p -3p -1,150 -387 -813 114 15 1 79 -94 3 339 46 3p -1,423p -295p -3,224p 137 73 -1 p -186 -22 108 -94 503 3,788 -490 -3,578 p -18 -13 180 -371 78 264 211 -750 -1 -6 5 92 -1,607 246 -382 2 13p -100p -249 -908p -64 -37 92p lip 338p -733p 2,767 -1,889p -3,460p 5 87 p 3,366p 559p -840p Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for February and March reflects the target adopted at the February 18, 1976 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary. Available reserves -48 Apr. 1976--Jan. ^ ^.j,^^ g. , A Taro~t- (8) (6) 1,222 5,155 4/ Factors I, 265 280 355 960 -1,110 -90 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, 1976 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) 1972 1973 1974 -490 7,232 1,280 87 207 320 789 579 797 539 500 434 167 129 196 1,582 1,415 1,747 46 120 439 592 400 1,665 253 244 659 168 101 318 1,059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 -1,358 -46 -154 1975 -468 337 3,284 1,510 1,070 6,202 191 824 460 138 1,613 7,267 1,272 -43 102 215 131 45 492 138 371 130 53 691 1,402 -238 1974--Qtr. IV I II III IV 1975--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1975--Sept. -2,093 1,086 1,054 1,135 2,024 2,079 712 385 1,096 1,006 -757 1,294 - 1,917 562 137 124 822 23 285 57 29 394 508 3,076 1,060 2,626 230 2,392 -1,403 3,148 2,008 53 Oct. Nov. Dec. 97 430 -588 1,784 99 2,096 15 -2,637 1,219 1976--Jan. -1,596 Feb. 1,275 240 297 -1,030 2,029 3,597 -3,129 -- -404 ---1,386 ---560 -2,022 37 40 110 366 100 63 73 59 321 528 26 76 139 149 47 61 27 11 Mar. 1976--Jan. 7 14 21 28 -404 -1,380 -- 47 188 Feb. 4 11 18 25 Mar. 3 10 17 24 31 - -189 40 -- 177 -107 63 -- 59 189 -- 339 -107 ---- 76 149 27 240 803 S - - 192 6,504 -- -- -- - - -1 336 820 376 -3,534 SSS- 61 11 . . 297 407 -818 -- -2,969 2,210 4,014 -3,314 -8,835 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes hanges in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, TABLE 1976 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) -- U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills Period (1) I ~.~ ___ ouporx Issues I (2) Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal n --11 I on s I . A on ... s Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deticit I Borrowing at FRB** Excess** C e~II es R (5) Totl I T I8NwYr38Ohr I r-r (6) I 8 Now Ynrk (8) 38 Onthrs I (9) 1974--High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 577 -168 3,906 647 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 253 864 -50 871 18 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 1975--Feb. Mar. 3,329 3,143 2,121 2,521 198 195 147 96 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,533 Apr. May June 2,737 4,744 5,201 1,617 1,752 1,351 143 155 201 110 66 227 -4,079 -3,965 -5,821 -10,426 July Aug. Sept. 4,231 4,020 5,008 1,246 1,204 588 188 195 191 259 211 397 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 - 9,966 - 9,015 Oct. 5,766 4,751 4,822 1,480 2,073 1,075 161 251 289p 189 60 131p -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - 9,202 4,959 *5,214 1,220 *1,051 232 241p 79 81p 1976--Jan. 7 14 21 28 4,607 6,173 4,891 4,294 1,144 1,208 1,637 1,005 324 163 197 165 67 45 153 58 -3,106 -5,523 -3,433 -2,625 - Feb. 4 11 18 25 5,020 5,183 *5,961 *4,789 828 1,684 * 903 * 833 417 123 570p -106p 57 51 56p 148p -2,367 -5,662 -3,673 -3,720 - 9,018 Nov. Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. -3,581 -4,296p - 6,046 - 7,207 -10,302 - 9,567 - 9,344 -10,159 -10,418 - 9,746 -10,108p Mar. Mar. NOTE: 3 10 17 24 31 *4,703 *5,984 * * 581 911 417p 91p 4 8 p 47p -4,362p -6,568p 8,478 -10,607 -10,712 - 9,413 -10,889 -10,642 - 9,550 - 9,343p -10,464p Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, 1976 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) S STreas ills Short-Term 90-119 Day Lon-Term CD's New Issua-NYC New Commercial Federal Aaa Utility Municipal Recently Bond Buyer U.S. Govt. (20yr. Constant FNMA GNMA Auction Guaranteed Period Funds 90-Day 1-year 60-89 Day 90-119 Day Issue Offered Yield Securities 1974--High Low (1) 13.55 8.45 (2) 9,63 6.53 (3) 9.54 6.39 (4) 12.25 7.88 (5) 12.25 8.00 (6) 12.00 7.88 (7) 10.61 8.05 (8) 10.52 8.14 (9) 7.15 5.16 (10) 8.68 7.40 (11) 10.59 8.43 (12) 9.98 7.79 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5,46 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.63 7.63 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 1975--Feb. Mar. 6.24 5.54 5.50 5.49 5.56 5.70 6.36 6.06 6.00 5.88 6.25 6.03 8.97 9.35 9.09 9.38 6.39 6.74 7.71 7.99 8.93 8.82 8.03 8.09 Apr. May June 5.49 5.22 5.55 5.61 5.23 5.34 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.11 5.70 5.67 5.85 5.44 5.34 6.03 5.63 5.51 9.67 9.63 9.25 9.66 9.65 9.33 6.94 6.97 6.94 8.36 8.22 8.04 9.06 9.27 9.09 8.48 8.51 8.34 July Aug. Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 6.13 6.44 6.42 6.64 7.16 7,20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.41 9.46 9.68 9.43 9.49 9.57 7.06 7.17 7.44 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 8.50 8.75 8.97 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.82 5.22 5.20 5.96 5.48 5.44 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.08 5.69 5.65 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.23 7.39 7.43 7.31 8.35 8.28 8.23 9.80 9.80 9.31 8.87 8.50 8.56 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.87 4.77 4.87 4.88 5.44 5.53 5.15 5.13 4.91 4.84 5,03 5.06 8.70 8.63 8.79 8.63 7.07 6.94 8.01 8.03 9.10 9.06 8.37 8.29 1976--Jan. 7 14 21 28 5.12 4.76 4.81 4.80 5.17 4.88 4.82 4.73 5.69 5.42 5.41 5.35 5.44 5.15 5.13 5.03 5.13 4.88 4.88 4.75 5.25 5.00 5.00 4.88 8.88 8.64 8.62 8.66 8.94 8.68 8.69 8.68 7.13 7.09 7.01 6.85 7.99 7.97 8.03 8.02 -9.13 9.07 8.45 8.34 8.38 8.31 Feb. 4 11 18 25 4.82 4.73 4.70 4.80 4.82 4.87 4.88 4.86 5.36 5.48 5.56 5.57 5.00 5.13 5.21 5.15 4.75 4.88 4.88 4.88 4,88 5.13 5.13 5.13 8.68 -8.64 8.58. 8.62 8.68 8.67 8.56 6.86 6.95 6.97 6.98 8.04r 8.10r 8.06 7.96r -9.07 9.04 8.27 8.31 8.31 8.25 Mar. 3 10 17 24 4.95 4.86 5.11 5.08 5.87 5.92 5.20 5.25 5.13 5.13 5.38 5.25 8.72 8 .64p 8.72 8.66p 7.04 6.98 8,07r 8.00p 9.06 8.31 8.31 4.95 5.22 6.05 5.25 4.81p 4.99 5.91 5.25 Paper Maturity) 31 Daily--Mar. 4 11 - - - -- -- 8.08- -- - -- - n.a. -- NOTE: Weekly data for columns I to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wedneqday quotes. For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 8 and 9 are one-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a one-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the prevailing ceiling rate. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MAR. 12, 1976 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES RESERVES Period Nto ood Total borrowed 1 2 SBANK Available Support Pvt Deposits 3 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 6.7 7.1 -0.4 6.0 9.2 1.3 MONEY STOCK MEASURES CREDIT MEASURES Adi Credit proxy Total Loans and Invest M1 ments 6 4 5 (Per cent annual rates of M M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 7 8 9 10 11 12 growth) 8.4 7.4 -1.1 10.5 10.2 3.9 13.5 9.2 4.3 6.0 4.7 4.2 8.8 7.2 8.3 8.8 6.8 11.2 11.6 10.6 6.3 5.7 6.1 3.1 3.9 6.1 6.2 7.8 7.4 -1.7 -0.6 4.5 3.1 5.1 3.4 5.6 2.7 9.8 6.5 11.9 9.9 6.9 5.4 9.9 9.0 3.7 5.3 -0.8 7.0 5.7 4.6 3.6 3.1 1.4 9.7 3.6 1.9 6.9 12.5 6.5 6.4 9.0 14.5 10.7 8.9 6.0 7.7 3.0 7.8 8.3 11.3 8.1 9.6 8.2 10.6 8.6 11.3 1.0 5.1 4.1 4.7 0.6 7.4 7.1 2.5 5.6 10.2 10,1 6.1 7.5 12.6 13.3 9.2 7.4 5.6 5.7 6.5 8.5 9.4 10.1 9.2 6.8 8.5 10.7 10.1 -5.1 0.0 9.4 3.4 11.4 14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.4 -2.8 4.1 7.2 9.3 7.1 13.4 16.5 9.5 5.7 4.2 5.1 10.8 3.1 6.2 8.9 11.7 10.8 14.9 17.4 13.2 10,3 8.5 8.4 11.6 6.4 8.7 4.9 4.4 3.9 6.2 12.9 5.1 -0.5 4.3 7.7 11.1 4.5 9.1 7.3 8.2 8.3 10.1 15.0 10.0 5.9 8.3 9.7 11.6 7.2 10.9 6.7 7.0 7.2 9.4 14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 11.0 14.6 7.9 1.2 6.5 10.3 14.3 11.5 14.5 3.2 6.7 6.9 9.6 7.0 9.3 10.6 9,0 9.6 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1974 4.2 19.3 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1975 1975 -1.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 -3.6 1.3 -0.8 1.4 3.6 -0.1 -2.8 4.5 -3.1 -0.2 -1.5 0.4 -0.1 -1.4 0.1 0.6 12.5 -0.4 -1.9 2.7 0.4 -2.2 -0.8 -0.8 5.5 3.6 1.4 6.0 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. -0.5 -9.0 -1.4 3.5 -11.6 12.2 -3.2 -3.1 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8 11.1 -0.4 0.0 3.4 -10.1 6.5 -5.8 0.0 -2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6 1.6 -6.2 -4.8 2.2 -8.1 5.4 -0.3 -4.3 0.3 -5.1 6.0 0.3 5.8 -0.7 6.0 2.2 1.0 12.7 -3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7 4.7 4.3 7.9 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5 -7.3 1976--JAN. FEB. P -10.2 -6.1 -8.4 -6.3 -4.9 -5.0 -0.7 4.9 5.3 8.1 QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 MONTHLY: I NOTES: LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. DEPOSITS. INSTITUTION AND THRIFT INVESTMENTS AND , M7,TOTAL LOANS BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES MAR. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVES! Period Total Nto Non borrowed 1 2 Available Support Pvt. Deposits 3 Adj Credit proxy 4 Total Loans and Investments 5 12, 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES M1 M M3 M4 M5 Mg M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1132.0 1232.7 1350.8 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 32,390 34,693 34,539 31,092 33,966 34,409 30,335 32,591 32,231 449.4 495.3 514.4 634.6 691.9 721.6 270.5 283.1 295.0 571.4 612.4 663.3 919.5 981.6 1091.8 634.9 702.2 746.2 1071.4 1174.7 1093.7 1191.0 1310.3 1975--FEB. MAR. 34,418 34,377 34,270 34,271 32,466 32,337 497.4 499.9 697.1 701.7 281.9 284.1 618.2 623.0 994.0 1003.7 710.2 712.8 1086.1 1093.5 1208.5 1215.5 1251.3 1259.6 APR. MAY JUNE 34,477 34,143 34,490 34,367 34,077 34,263 32,396 32,176 32,320 500.8 501.2 506.5 703.7 706.7 709.7 284.9 287.6 291.0 626.7 633.7 642.4 1012.7 1025.3 1040.2 715.1 718.8 726.5 1101.1 1110.4 1124.3 1222.8 1232.4 1247.7 1267.2 1276.3 1290.7 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,399 34,310 34,421 34098 34,099 34,024 32,311 32,194 32,201 505.1 503.3 505.5 710.9 714.9 716.1 291.9 293.2 293.6 647.5 650.6 652.9 1051.6 1060.6 1068.1 729.6 729.3 731.9 1133.7 1139.3 1147.2 1260.1 1267.5 1274.4 1302.1 1308.6 1314.8 OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,239 34,515 34,539 34,048 34,455 34,409 32,063 32,224 32,231 508.0 514.1 514.4 719.7 726.0 721.6 293.4 295.7 295.0 655.7 661.6 663.3 1075.6 1086.0 1091.8 736.6 743.4 746.2 1156.5 1167.7 1174.7 1286.1 1301.7 1310.3 1326.2 1342.0 1350.8 P 34,245 34,070 34,167 33,989 32,100 31,965 514.1 516.2 724.8 729.7 295.3 296.9 669.0 677.0 1102.3 1115.6 748.2 752.4 1181.5 1191.0 1317.9 1328.1 1358.3 1368.5 14 21 28 34,184 34,391 34,079 34,139 34,238 34,021 32.193 32,276 31,914 514.1 515.3 513.8 295.0 295.3 294.6 668.0 669.3 670.7 747.9 747.9 748.2 FEB. 4 11 18P 25P 34,459 33,775 34,273 33,781 34,404 33,724 34,217 33,633 32,021 31,730 32,307 31,716 513.9 516.4 517.0 515.6 296.4 297.3 297.9 295.9 674.3 676.7 678.3 676.8 751.0 752.5 753.7 751.6 MAR. 3P 34,346 34,261 32,159 514.2 296.7 678.0 752.0 982.9 MONTHLY: 1976--JAN. FEB. WEEKLY: 1976--JAN. NOTES: ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 2-A MAR. 12, 1976 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES m Currency Period Total Time Demand Timep Deposits DepositsDeposits Time Other Than CD's S . 1 2 3 Mutual Savings Bank and S & L Credit Union Shares Sharesu1 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 5.3 3.0 2.8 1973 1974 1975 11.4 9.4 11.8 8.5 5.6 15.7 13.8 12.1 20.2 45.6 41.4 -7.7 31.3 11.9 21.3 39.3 9.1 -3.1 20.9 4.4 4.4 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1974 2.1 8.0 6.1 11.5 1S.T HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 4.4 1.2 13.4 9.6 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 -12.7 -2.9 6.7 34.7 5.7 -11.6 -1.1 9.9 2.9 -0.5 11.8 14.6 8.9 10.1 12.1 17.7 17.4 12.4 20.2 20.6 17.0 17.6 0.0 -25.4 -23.8 19.2 10.7 2.8 19.2 47.9 21.1 -9.1 -24.2 1.0 -2.0 6.9 6.6 0.5 9.9 12.5 12.7 9.1 10.1 16.2 18.2 14.0 17.5 21.0 18.6 16.5 19.7 -24.5 -27.5 9.5 17.9 -5.5 26.4 31.3 -0.9 9.3 -23.7 -7.8 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. -2.8 8.4 3.9 11.1 14.4 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 8.2 -5.4 13.0 10.0 9.9 15.1 18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.4 11.9 7.9 11.2 15.2 16.4 17.2 18.9 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.0 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.3 19.9 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -44.8 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1 -4.1 -14.4 -12.5 -2.1 23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 37.4 78.2 23.3 L976--JAN. FEB. P -0.5 4.3 17.6 20.6 13.4 14.1 18.0 21.3 -53.6 -57.6 QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. OTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. OTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 MONTHLY: '---""' ----- 1/ p - "- --- "---"-"-- RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODULLAR BUKKUMINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. 7.0 7.0 31.7 33.6 10.9 -13.5 -24.6 -25. -28.5\ -20.4 -5.9 6.0 3.0 0.0 -3.0 AND REQUIREMENTS CURRENT MONTH AND ON BANK-RELATED END OF MAR. 12, 1976 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currenc y Demnd ios -po1 2 T i utual Other avings Deposits Than 3 CD's 4 ad n Short Credit L &DLs Shares 5 U i n o n CD U 6 ' Savings Term Bonds .eS US. Govt 8 9 s 7 L Commercial deosit Gov' Paper F oosiy Funds Dedant Demand 10 11 ANNUALLY: 209.0 215.3 221.3 364.4 419.1 451.2 300.9 329.3 368.3 323.5 341.6 395.4 24.7 27.7 33.3 63.5 89.8 82.9 60.4 63.3 67.3 50.3 56.3 68.3 38.3 41.8 40.5 1975--FEB. MAR. 213.2 214.7 428.3 428.7 336.2 339.0 347.5 351.9 28.6 29.1 92.1 89.8 63.9 64.2 58.5 57.8 42.8 44.0 APR. MAY JUNE 215.4 217.4 220.0 430.1 431.2 435.5 341.8 346.1 351.4 356.7 361.8 367.5 29.6 30.1 30.6 88.4 85.1 84.1 64.5 64.8 65.1 57.2 57.1 58.2 44.4 43.9 43.0 JULY AUG. SEPT. 220.6 221.3 221.6 437.6 436.2 438.3 355.5 357,4 359.2 373.3 378.8 383.5 31.0 31.5 31.9 82.1 78.8 79.1 65.6 45.9 66.2 60.8 62.2 61.0 42.1 41.1 40.4 OCT. NOV. DEC. 220.8 222.3 221.3 443.2 447.6 451.2 362.3 365.9 368.3 387.8 391.8 395.4 32.4 32.8 33.3 80.9 81.8 82.9 66.6 67.0 67.3 62.9 67.0 68.3 40.2 40.4 40.5 221.2 222.0 452.9 455.5 373.7 380.1 399.8 404.5 33.8 34.4 79.2 75.4 67.6 68.0 68.7 69.1 40.5 40.4 14 21 28 221.0 221.1 220.1 452.8 452.6 453.6 372.9 374.0 376.2 79.9 78.6 77.4 FEB. 4 11 18P 25P 221.8 222.4 222.8 220.8 454.6 455.2 455.8 455.8 377.9 379.4 380.4 381.0 76.7 75.8 75.4 74.8 MAR. 3P 221.6 455.3 381.3 74.0 1973 1974 .1975 MONTHLY: 1976--JAN. FEB. P WEEKLY: 1976--JAN. I NOTES: . RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGGINNING OCTOBER 1I 1970. 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY-AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. DATA. P - PRELIMINARY 12 Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) MI M 1973 M3 M2 Q M q M Q 3.6 7.4 7.3 8.4 10.3 10.1 6.4 9.9 9.8 8.5 III 1.8 5.5 6.3 6.1 7.8 IV 7.8 5.1 10.5 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6,0 6.2 8.8 8.8 9.0 1974 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 III 3.6 7.1 1.9 4.2 II III IV QIV '73-QIV '74 1975 IV QIV '74-QIV '75 10.2 14.5 12.6 6.5 10.1 10.7 13.3 2.5 6.4 6.1 8.9 9.2 4.4 8.3 8.2 11.2 11.1 12.5 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A 1976 Alt. B QI 4.7 4.8 QII 4, 5 QIII QIV 6 6% Alt. C 4.9 5 5% 5-7/8 6 6
@FedFRASER