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Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC June 26, 1992 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GDP in 1992:Q1. . Income and consumption Housing . . . . . . . . Labor markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .... . . ... . . . . . . . . . .... ... 1 1 2 2 The market for existing homes. . . . . . . . . . . .. Real gross domestic product and related items .. . . Personal income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Real personal consumption expenditures . . . . . . . . 2 3 4 4 Tables Charts Personal consumption expenditures. . . . . . . ... Unemployment insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 6 THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . . . . . . . . . Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . . . 7 8 9 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of exports and non-oil imports. . . Import and export price measures . . .. . . . . ... 10 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GDP in 1992:Q1 In its final estimate for the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised up slightly its growth from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent estimate of real GDP (at an annual rate). was a small downward adjustment to personal There consumption expenditures, but it was more than offset by upward revisions to most other major components of GDP. In addition, corporate profits (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) are now estimated to have risen $40 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision of about $8 billion from the preliminary estimate. Income and Consumption Nominal personal income rose $14 billion at an annual rate in May, following a slow $3.6 billion increase in April. wages and salaries accounted for most in other labor A rebound in of the gain in May. Increases income, transfer payments, nonfarm proprietors' income, and dividends more than offset declines in interest income and farm proprietors' income. After accounting for taxes and inflation, real disposable personal income edged up 0.1 percent in May, after falling 0.2 percent in April. Real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3 percent in May, lifted mainly by higher outlays on motor vehicles. As suggested by the May retail sales report, spending for goods other than motor vehicles in April and May was slightly below the first-quarter average. May. Outlays for services rose slowly for a second month in Housing Sales of existing homes edged down 1.7 percent in May. At 3.43 million units (annual rate), sales in May remained near the three-year high recorded in the March-April period. The change in sales volume was small in all regions. Prices of existing homes sold in May were down slightly from a year earlier: The average sales price was off 1.8 percent, and the median sales price declined 0.4 percent. over-year price declines since early 1991. These are the first yearIn May, as in April, prices were particularly weak in the West. THE MARKET FOR EXISTING HOMES Sales volume Thousands of units, SAAR (Percent change from previous period) Sales price Average ($1,000, NSA) (Percent change from year earlier) Median ($1,000, NSA) (Percent change from year earlier) 1992 1991 1992 1991 Q4 Q1 Mar. Apr p Aprr Mayp 3,220 3,230 3,407 3,510 3,500 3.490 3,430 .3 1.3 5.5 .6 -.3 -.6 -1.7 128.4 126.2 129.8 130.2 129.9 130.6 128.5 n.a. n.a. 5.4 4.1 .7 1.2 100.3 99.1 103.1 104.0 102.7 103.3 100.9 5.0 7.5 6.7 5.4 2.2 2.8 -.4 -1.8 1. Because of a change in survey design, average sales prices beginning in January 1991 are not strictly comparable with previous periods. Median prices are not affected by this change. Labor Markets Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 429,000 for the week ended June 13, after holding in the range of 410,000 to 415,000 over the previous five weeks. The level of insured unemployment under all regular programs fell about 120,000 to 3.35 million in the week ended June 6. 6/25/92 -3- REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Percent change from previous period at compound annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data, measured in 1987 dollars) 1990-Q4 to 1991-Q4 1. Gross domestic product 2. Final sales 3. 4. Consumer spending Excluding motor vehicles 5. 6. 7. Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures 8. Residential investment 9. Government purchases 1991-Q4 Final 1992-Q1 Preliminary 1992-Q1 Final .3 .4 2.4 2.7 -. 5 -. 2 4.6 4.8 .6 1.0 .0 .1 5.4 4.6 5.0 4.4 -3.4 -1.6 -7.8 1.7 3.7 -3.0 3.1 3.5 2.5 -. 9 12.3 8.4 -1.6 -5.4 3.1 2.9 -7.1 -3.7 -14.7 11.7 10. Exports of goods and services 6.8 9.7 -. 9 2.5 11. Imports of goods and services 4.6 2.1 -. 2 1.5 ADDENDA: 12. 13. 14. Nonfarm inventory investment 1 Retail autos 1 Excluding retail autos 1 -13.92 -7.72 -6.2 2 9.2 -8.1 17.3 -18.1 -8.9 -9.2 -16.3 -6.0 -10.3 15. Net exports of goods and services 1 -20.9 2 -21.3 -22.3 -20.1 16. Nominal GDP 3.3 2.2 5.5 5.8 17. GDP fixed-weight price index 3.4 2.1 3.4 3.3 18. GDP implicit price deflator 3.0 1.7 3.1 3.1 19. Corporate profits 3 306.8 315.6 347.0 355.4 20. Profit share (percent) 4 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1 21. Personal saving rate 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.0 2 1. Level, billions of 1987 dollars. 2. Annual average. 3. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments; level, billions of dollars. 4. Economic profit as a share of nominal GNP. PERSONAL INCOME (Average monthly change at an annual rate; billions of dollars) 1991 1992 1991 Q4 Q1 11.3 17.6 21.7 22.3 3.6 14.0 Wages and salaries Private 4.7 3.1 5.6 3.9 9.6 7.0 10.9 10.0 -1.7 -2.5 11.5 10.6 Other labor income 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 Proprietors' income 2.1 3.7 6.2 10.7 2.2 -7.0 -. 5 2.0 2.2 8.6 -. 1 -8.3 Rent Dividend .1 .1 2.3 .1 -. 2 .1 Interest -3.1 -4.9 Transfer payments 7.1 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Total personal income Farm Mar. Apr. May .4 .3 -1.5 1.1 1.9 1.2 -5.7 -4.7 -4.0 -3.5 9.9 12.0 4.0 6.1 9.3 1.0 .4 1.7 -.1 .8 -.8 .5 -7.2 -22.3 4.0 1.2 12.2 17.1 28.9 44.5 -.4 12.9 1.7 7.1 12.3 20.1 -7.7 3.3 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income 1992 Memo: Real disposable income REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION .8 EXPENDITURES (Percent change from the preceding period) 1991 1991 1992 Q4 Q1 -Annual ratePersonal consumption expenditures 1992 Mar. Apr. May ----Monthly rate---- .6 .0 5.0 -.6 .2 .3 -2.8 -.7 -5.7 -7.7 15.9 15.0 -2.9 -1.0 .1 .4 1.6 .2 Nondurable goods Excluding gasoline -.9 -.9 -3.9 -4.2 5.3 6.3 -1.3 -1.7 .5 .5 .0 -.2 Services Excluding energy 2.2 2.2 3.7 3.4 2.5 3.8 .1 .1 .1 .0 Memo: Personal saving rate (percent) 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.3 Durable goods Excluding motor vehicles .4 .1 5.8 Personal Consumption Expenditures for Goods excluding Motor Vehicles F Billions of 1987 dollars 1330 * Quarterly Average 1320 1310 1300 1290 1280 1270 1989 1991 1990 Personal Consumption Expenditures for Motor Vehicles F 1992 Billions of 1987 dollars 250 * Quarterly Average - 220 May I I I1 Personal Consumption Expenditures for Services F Billions of 1987 dollars 1920 * Quarterly Average 1860 May 1800 1740 1989 1989 1990 1990 1991-1992 1991 1992 Unemployment Insurance (Weekly data; seasonally adjusted, BLS basis <1>) Initial Claims Thousands 750 700 650 600 550 Jun 13 All regular programs 429.4 t 5 450 400 350 300 ' 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Insured Unemployment 250 1992 Millions 5.0 4.5 All regular programs 4.0 Jun 6 3.35 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 <1> Only the state program component of these series are seasonally adjusted. 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1.5 -7MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted) 1991 1 -----------1. 2. 3. 8.0 2.8 1.2 Ml M2 M3 1992 Q1 1992 Q2pe 1992 Apr 1992 May Growth 1992 Q4 91Junpe Jun 9 2pe Percent change at annual rates--------------------16.5 4.3 2.2 10 0 -13 5.0 -2.1 -3.9 14.8 0.6 -0.4 Levels bil. $ May 92 ------------ Percent change at annual rates---------- -Selected components 4. 5. 6. M1-A Currency Demand deposits 7. Other checkable deposits 8. M2 minus M12 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks Savings deposits (including MMOAs) Small time deposits Thrift institutions Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small time deposits 17. M3 minus M23 Large time deposits 4 At commercial banks, net At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA MEMORANDA: 5 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds Net due to related foreign 27. institutions 6 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial 7 banks 5.6 14.9 94 6.9 10.1 -4 597.9 8.4 3.4 7.4 22.2 6 12N 7.9 6.2 4.8 15.0 7 -15 274.7 315.2 12.4 19.2 114 1.7 22.6 4 356.6 0.0 -3% -4.7 -4.8 -41.0 -61.2 19¾ -29 -29 -13.1 4.5 13.8 -7.0 -12.6 15.8 -39.3 3.0 -3.3 7.8 -17.2 -2.9 19.4 -24.3 -9 -13.0 -5.1 -184 -20.9 -14 -17.5 -37n -36.3 -13.3 -7.2 -42.3 25.3 -22.8 -32.7 35.5 -10.0 -31.5 -7.9 15.4 3.9 7.1 13.3 1.1 -6.9 9.3 -16.8 1.0 0.9 19.2 -18.9 -3.6 -5.6 -11.7 -5.1 22.4 -24.2 -7.2 -31.7 -20.4 -18.2 -29.6 33.4 -21.7 -10.6 27.0 -6.0 -25.7 -364 12¾ -134 -6A 20% -3% -7 -4 2515.1 14 67.0 355.0 1265.7 707.9 557.8 825.6 414.6 411.0 -5 706.6 401.2 329.9 71.2 33 -13 -15 194.8 71.7 55.6 ----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars--- -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 0.4 -0.9 0.2 -2.8 -5.7 2.8 -34 -4i 1 -4.7 -7.1 2.4 -2.4 -3.2 0.8 2.0 0.8 3J -2% 4.5 -2.1 5.3 -4.5 2 -2 55.1 237.4 1¾ -1.9 -2.9 8 17.0 -1.5 689.1 396.6 292.5 Amounts shown are froe fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. The non-MZ component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. institutions. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift Oollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money Iincluding borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 7. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at comercial banks. pe - preliminary estimate 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT 1 (Percentage change at annual rate, based on seasonally adjusted data) Category Dec. 1990 to Dec. 1991 1991 Q4 1992 Q1 1992 Mar. 1992 Apr. 1992 May. Levels bil.$ 1992 May. Commercial bank credit 1. Total loans and securities at banks 2. Securities 3. U.S. government 4. Other 5. Loans 3.9 7.0 2.1 2.7 6.6 8.5 20.1 11.8 773.4 16.6 24.7 15.8 598.9 6.2 -2.7 174.5 5.2 -0.8 2,863.5 17.6 24.4 23.8 30.3 1.4 6.6 -7.9 1.1 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -5.4 -2.9 -2.1 -6.3 -4.7 -5.9 -7.3 602.2 2.9 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 881.1 -5.0 359.7 -0.2 11.1 -18.3 2,090.1 6. Business 7. Real estate 8. Consumer -3.9 -4.1 -0.8 -4.6 -3.0 9. Security 21.9 36.0 44.0 71.5 89.3 -59.1 61.8 Other -3.0 -13.3 -12.8 185.3 10. 6.3 4.3 1.9 Short- and intermediate-term business credit 11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances -2.5 -2.3 -6.4 -4.6 -5.6 -7.8 595.6 Loans at foreign branches 2 -1.6 34.2 -40.9 -30.8 0.0 -5.3 22.7 13. Sum of lines 11 and 12 -2.4 -0.9 -7.8 -5.5 -5.4 -7.7 618.3 14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms -10.4 -6.3 14.9 18.9 -5.1 -12.7 139.7 15. Sum of lines 13 and 14 -3.9 -1.9 -3.8 -1.3 -5.2 -8.6 758.0 16. Bankers acceptances, 3 U.S. trade-related -16.2 -4.2 -22.9 -31.0 -18.2 -27.7 25.4 1.4 -4.2 -1.9 -9.5 -9.6 n.a. 297.55 -2.9 -2.6 -3.7 -4.3 -6.8 n.a. 1,087.05 12. 17. 18. Finance company 4 loans to business Total (sum of lines 15, 16, and 17) 1. Average of Wednesdays. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms-by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 5. April 1992 data. p--Preliminary. n.a.--Not available. SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) 1989 March March highs 1992 - - --- 1992 - - - FOMC Dec-Jan May 19 Lows Jun 25 Change from: - - - -- - - Mar 89 Dec-Jan FOMC highs Lows May 19 Short-term rates Federal funds 2 9.85 3.80 3.94 3.72 Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year 9.10 9.05 3.54 3.62 3.81 3.72 3.76 3.81 10.05 10.15 3.81 3.82 Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month 10.07 10.32 10.08 Eurodollar deposits 1-month 3-month Bank prime rate -6.13 -0.22 -0.08 3.62 -5.48 3.70 3.88 -5.41 -5.17 -0.10 -0.06 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.07 4.01 3.94 3.87 3.88 -6.18 -6.27 -0.14 -0.06 0.06 0.06 3.74 3.75 3.85 3.95 3.89 3.89 3.81 3.83 3.90 -6.26 -6.49 -6.18 -0.14 -0.06 0.01 0.07 0.08 0.05 10.19 10.50 3.75 3.81 3.94 3.88 3.75 3.81 -6.44 -6.69 -0.19 -0.07 0.00 0.00 11.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 -5.00 0.00 0.00 U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 5.59 9.88 3-year 7.20 9.53 10-year 7.77 9.31 30-year 5.05 6.71 7.39 5.41 7.14 7.78 -4.47 -2.39 -1.53 0.36 0.43 0.39 -0.18 -0.06 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) 9.11 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month Intermediate- and long-term rates 0.01 7.95 6.70 6.53 6.58 -1.37 0.05 -0.12 Corporate--A utility recently offered 10.47 8.60 8.46 8.64 -1.83 0.18 0.04 Home mortgage rates 6 FHLMC 30-yr. FRM FHLMC 1-yr. ARM 11.22 9.31 8.64 5.97 8.23 5.79 8.48 5.86 -2.74 -3.45 0.25 0.07 -0.16 -0.11 1989 Record highs Date Lows Jan 3 1992 FOMC May 19 Jun 25 Percent change from: Record highs 1989 lows FOMC May 19 53.13 43.85 22.58 44.81 42.48 -3.35 -3.40 -4.64 -5.16 -3.79 Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3413.21 231.85 NYSE Composite 418.99 AMEX Composite 644.92 NASDAQ (OTC) 4121.28 Wilshire 6/1/92 1/15/92 2/12/92 2/12/92 1/15/92 2144.64 3397.99 3284.01 154.00 229.32 221.53 305.24 392.37 374.15 548.20 378.56 578.05 2718.59 4025.84 3873.33 -3.79 -4.45 -10.70 -15.00 -6.02 .............................................................................................. 1/ One-day quotes except as noted. 2/ Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending June 24. 1992. 3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown. -10THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of Exports and Non-oil Imports In May, prices of non-oil imports fell for the third consecutive month, the result of declines in prices of imports of foods, feeds, and beverages, automotive products, and capital goods. The three consecutive months of declining prices of non-oil imports follow six consecutive months of increase and likely reflect a lagged adjustment to the rise in the exchange value of the dollar in the first quarter. Prices of exports increased 0.3 percent in May, with prices of nonagricultural exports rising 0.5 percent. Prices of exports of industrial supplies and consumer goods posted the largest increases in May. Prices of exports of industrial supplies have risen for four consecutive months, paced by increases in prices of exports of building materials. -11IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE MEASURES (percent change from previous period, annual rate) Year 1992-Q1 1991-01 Quarters 1991 1992 Q3 Q4 Q1 (Quarterly Average, AR) Months 1992 Apr May (Monthly Rates) --------------------- BLS Prices--------------------Imports, Total -1.9 -3.5 5.2 -1.5 -0.2 0.3 Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies 3.2 -10.0 -3.5 -6.7 3.7 3.1 10.1 -15.7 -3.4 1.1 -2.5 1.9 Ind Supp Ex Oil* Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods -2.9 0.2 2.0 1.5 -7.3 -4.4 -1.0 -0.6 -4.3 6.5 7.4 5.1 4.8 4.6 0.7 6.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -22.8 0.6 -5.9 -3.2 19.5 3.9 -46.5 4.5 4.1 -0.7 6.2 -0.2 -0.6 4.3 -7.4 2.0 2.2 3.0 -2.5 -5.8 -8.0 1.6 2.1 -2.3 2.5 17.6 -3.0 2.2 3.0 2.5 -1.3 -1.2 -6.4 0.6 1.6 5.9 -0.2 -2.2 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 -1.1 -8.5 -1.8 10.8 1.2 -3.3 -1.1 -1.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 Memo: Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods Memo: Agricultural Nonagricultural ------------- Prices in the NIPA Accounts-----------Fixed-Weight Imports, Total Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Ag Nonag Deflators Imports, Total Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Ag Nonag -1.8 -24.7 1.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 4.0 22.0 2.5 -0.4 -49.4 6.2 -0.2 1.3 -0.4 -3.6 -9.1 -2.9 2.6 11.6 1.9 1.8 -5.1 2.6 -3.4 -24.8 -0.9 -2.9 -1.5 -3.2 4.0 21.7 1.9 -3.2 -49.4 2.9 -1.5 -1.7 -1.5 -3.9 -6.3 -3.9 0.7 6.3 0.3 -0.0 -6.1 0.5 */ Months not for publication. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM DIVISION OF RESEARCH AND STATISTICS 1992 Date: June 26. To: The Federal Open Market Committee From: Michael Prell Subject: Greensheets Attached are revised Greensheets that incorporate the revised NIPA data and show projections in which the levels have been adjusted for the differences between the preliminary and final first-quarter estimates. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC STAFF PROJECTIONS OF CHANGES IN GDP, PRICES, AND UNEMPLOYMENT (Percent, annual rate) June 26, 1992 Unenemployment Nominal GDP Interval 5/14/92 6/26/92 7.0 5.1 2.9 4.5 5.7 7.0 5.1 2.9 4.5 5.6 GDP fixed-weight price index Real GDP 5/14/92 6/26/92 Consumer price index 1 rate (level except as noted) 5/14/92 6/26/92 5/14/92 6/26/92 5/14/92 6/26/92 4.3 4.3 4.0 2.8 3.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 2.8 2.9 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.3 3.3 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.3 3.3 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.1 6.8 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.2 6.9 4.8 3.9 5.6 7.0 -.1 -.1 .7 .7 4.4 2.4 2.9 3.1 .7 .7 .2 .2 ANNUAL 19892 19902 19912 1992 1993 2.5 1.0 -. 7 1.9 2.9 2.5 1.0 -. 7 1.9 2.8 1.7 1.6 .2 042 1.7 1.6 .2 -3.9 012 022 -2.5 1.4 QUARTERLY 1990 012 Q22 Q32 1991 1992 -2.5 1.4 1.8 .4 Q32 Q42 1.8 012 02 03 2.0 2.0 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.7 1.7 -1.8 .4 04 1993 -3.9 01 02 03 04 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 TWO-QUARTER 3 1990 1991 1992 1993 022 6.2 6.2 Q42 1.9 1.9 Q22 Q42 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 Q2 04 4.9 6.0 5.3 5.2 Q2 Q4 5.7 5.2 5,8 5.7 FOUR-QUARTER 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1. 2. 3. 4. -1.8 -. 6 1.1 2.9 3.2 -. 6 1.1 2.9 3.2 4.4 2.4 3.1 2.7 4 Q42 Q42 Q42 Q4 Q4 For all urban consumers. Actual. Percent change frcm two quarters earlier, for unemployment rate, change In percentage points. Percent change from four quarters earlier, for unemployment rate, change in percentage points. .3 .4 -. 2 -. 1 -. 2 -. 2 -. 3 -. 2 Strictly Confidential Class II FOMC (FR) REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS, ANNUAL VALUES (Seasonally adjusted, annual rate) June 26, 1992 Projected Item Unit1 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Nominal GDP Real GDP Bill. $ Bill. 87$ 4038.7 4279.8 4268.6 4404.5 4539.9 4900.4 4718.6 5244.0 4836.9 5513.8 5672.6 4848.8 5928.4 4942.0 6259.9 4884.9 Real GDP Gross domestic purchases Final sales % 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.0 -. 1 -. 9 1.2 .3 .1 -.5 -.3 -.5 2.5 2.7 2.3 3.3 3.0 2.5 4.2 .6 -2.8 --9 2.2 2.8 6.2 1.8 2.5 2.8 5.8 2.0 .3 -2.7 -1.0 1.9 .5 -. 1 1.7 -7.7 .6 3.1 -4.6 -11.8 -7.1 -3.7 -14.7 -.9 5.2 8.1 -1.8 7.0 5.6 7.7 -. 1 4.0 5.8 6.7 -.4 -1.5 -4.5 .3 -.8 -4.1 EXPENDITURES change 3.8 3.8 Private dom. final purch. 3.9 Personal cons. expend. Durables 4.0 6.3 4.0 12.5 2.7 4.2 Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures 3.1 2.2 -5.7 Exports Imports Government purchases Nondurables Services 4.6 Bill. 87$ Change in bus. invent. Nonfarm % change 2.1 4.2 1.2 -2.6 8.5 3.3 1.4 2.5 3.7 3.2 3.7 -. 8 ..8 -.7 -14.1 3.0 2.4 4.4 5.5 9.1 -1.2 -. 3 9.9 6.7 12.6 4.7 13.5 5.2 5.9 6.4 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.3 .2 -3.4 22.1 -145.3 Nominal GDP 4.2 1.5 .6 .9 19.8 Net exports 2.7 1.9 -3.1 7.0 5.4 State and local 4.5 3.9 11.1 4.3 Federal Defense 4540.0 7.0 4.4 3.7 4.5 2.9 3.6 -3.2 2.9 8.6 10.6 -155.1 26.3 32.7 -143.0 -104.0 4.7 8.0 7.7 19.9 26.9 10.9 2.7 7.6 6.8 -. 4 4.6 1.6 -1.2 -2.0 3.6 3.2 2.3 -1.6 -3.1 .8 3.8 -4.7 -.5 32.6 33.3 .2 -1.5 -51.4 -13.9 -13.9 -20.9 -75.7 5.9 1.6 1.0 -28.6 4.1 3.3 5.3 108.3 5.3 109.8 5.. 5 108.3 108.6 7.2 1.1 .3 82.3 5079.5 3.1 2.6 3.5 2.0 2.6 8.6 6.8 -6.9 1.4 27.3 25,4 -34.9 5.8 EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION Unemployment rate Millions % Industrial prod. index %change Nonfarm payroll employ. Capacity util. rate-mfg. Housing starts Auto sales in U.S. North American produced Other Millions 97.5 7.2 1.9 79.5 1.74 11.04 8.20 2.84 99.5 7.0 102.2 105.5 6.2 5.5 6.5 81.4 83.9 83.9 1.38 3.18 1.49 10.63 7.54 3.09 4544.5 8.1 4908.2 7.8 5248.2 5.9 5.5 2.8 6.0 7.4 7.1 3.3 6.7 2.1 4.3 4.4 4.4 -7.1 6.4 29.7 7.0 10.2 7.4 -11.5 6.7 1.4 79.0 1.81 11.45 8.22 3.24 1.62 10.24 7.07 4.5 9.91 7.09 2.83 6.7 -. 5 78.2 1.19 9.51 1.01 6.90 2.60 6.14 2.25 5524.6 5685.8 3.0 2.7 8.39 3.0 78.2 110.4 6.9 4.0 79.5 1.22 8.49 6.31 2.19 1.34 5948.4 5.4 5.0 2.3 5.0 6283.1 5.8 9.16 6.93 2.24 INCOME AND SAVING Bill. $ % change Nominal GNP Nominal GNP Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate % change Corp. profits, IVA&CCAdj 4053.6 6.8 6.6 1.9 6.5 9.0 6.9 Profit share of GNP Bill. $ Federal surpl./def. State/local surpl./def. Ex. social ins. funds 4277.8 4.4 1.4 -124.2 41.1 -19.2 4.3 6.5 1.0 5.1 .5 5.2 -11.5 6.6 5.8 5.4 24.3 6.3 -165.3 -201.6 30.0 -35.3 -282.2 47.1 -18.7 6.4 3.1 5.1 7.7 6.5 -257.7 -201.1 54.3 -151.8 40.1 -136.6 9.2 1.5 -14.7 -18.4 3.6 2.6 2.5 3.3 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.5 2.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 5.1 6.3 5.3 3.0 4.5 3.0 3.5 3.7' 2.8 3.1 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 2.6 4.3 3.9 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.5 .5 3.8 3.3 -1.5 3.0 4.6 .4 6.5 6.0 1.3 3.3 2.1 1.8 3.4 1.6 1.5 3.7 2.2 -181.4 56.1 38.4 25.7 -38.1 60.9 -6.6 PRICES AND COSTS GDP implicit deflator GDP fixed-wt. price index % change 3.6 Gross domestic purchases fixed-wt. price index CPI Ex. food and energy ECI, hourly compensation 2 Nonfarm business sector Output per hour .7 Compensation per hour Unit labor cost 4.7 3.9 1.3 1.2 4.6 3.4 II 1. Percent changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. 2. Private-industry workers. 3.2 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS, QUARTERLY VALUES (Seasonally adjusted, annual rate except as noted) 1989 Item Unit Q1 Q2 June 26, 1992 1990 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1991 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 EXPENDITURES Nominal GDP Real GDP Bill. $ Bill. 87$ Real GDP Cross domestic purchases Final sales Private dom. final purch. % change 5139.9 4809.8 5218.5 4832.4 5277.3 4845.6 5340.4 4859.7 5422.4 4880.8 5504.7 4900.3 2.5 1.9 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.3 .8 -.4 2.1 .4 2.7 3.1 .4 -.7 -.5 -1.5 Personal cons. expend. Durables Nondurables Services -.2 -5.0 .1 .8 1.0 5.9 -1.4 1.2 4.1 13.8 3.1 2.3 .1 -15.5 1.5 3.6 2.1 16.7 -.3 .3 Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures .9 -1.0 4.9 -5.9 2.7 7.3 -6.2 -11.9 .8 -2.5 8.0 -5.6 -2.5 -3.9 .4 -7.3 Exports Imports 12.4 -6.1 17.2 6.9 .9 6.8 -3.4 -9.5 -12.8 1.3 5.2 7.9 5.6 3.4 41.2 35.8 -81.2 .7 Government purchases Federal Defense State and local 5570.5 4903.3 5557.5 4855.1 5589.0 4824.0 5652.6 4840.7 .2 -3.9 -2.5 1.4 1.3 -6.5 -3.5 .9 .9 2.5 -.3 -4.7 -2.4 -4.8 1.2 .8 .0 -11.8 -1.5 4.1 2.8 1.5 1.3 4.1 -3.5 -14.0 -3.4 -.9 -1.3 -11.9 -.3 .7 1.4 -1.8 .9 2.5 7.1 6.4 8.5 .6 -4.6 -3.2 -7.3 -15.7 8.5 11.5 2.5 -16.2 -7.7 -1.6 -19.7 -15.0 -17.4 -18.1 -15.7 -24.8 -3.3 .0 -10.3 3.1 13.7 4.0 8.8 -2.5 4.8 1.7 -. 4 9.6 17.7 -9.3 -7.4 -15.4 19.4 13.3 4.1 5.1 10.1 3.3 .7 -7.2 -9.2 6.6 6.4 5.9 2.3 6.7 2.2 4.3 3.3 .8 -.3 -5.0 -7.9 3.2 4.6 4.5 5.9 4.6 2.8 9.9 10.9 -1.9 38.9 33.4 -71.9 20.2 25.9 -79.8 30.0 38.1 -70.0 -4.0 -5.5 -56.0 22.1 15.5 -52.5 13.9 9.9 -65.7 .3 .6 4.6 2.7 -.1 1.0 -3.3 -.7 Change in bus. invent. Nonfarm Net exports Bill. 87$ Nominal GDP % change 7.8 6.3 4.6 4.9 6.3 6.2 4.9 -.9 2.3 4.6 Nonfarm payroll employ. Unemployment ratel Millions 107.7 108.2 108.5 109.0 109.8 110.2 109.9 109.3 108.6 108.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.7 Industrial prod. index Capacity util. rate-mfg. 1 t change 2.7 2.8 -1.2 .2 4.2 3.9 -7.0 -9.7 2.6 84.7 84.5 83.7 82.9 82.7 82.8 82.9 80.8 78.0 77.9 Housing starts Auto sales in U.S. North American produced Other Millions -31.2 -25.7 -31.2 -32.8 -31.1 -18.6 -30.4 -30.8 -12.3 EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION .6 1.49 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.46 1.20 1.13 1.03 .92 1.00 10.03 10.26 10.20 9.09 9.92 9.53 9.60 9.00 8.33 8.43 7.08 2.95 7.26 3.00 7.36 2.84 6.56 2.53 7.12 2.80 6.82 2.71 7.08 2.51 6.60 2.39 6.09 2.25 6.11 2.32 5576.8 5583.2 5611.7 5660.6 INCOME AND SAVING Nominal GNP Nominal GNP Nominal personal income Real disposable income 1 Personal saving rate Bill. $ t change 5144.3 5217.7 5279.8 5350.9 5432.7 5505.5 7.3 10.8 3.6 5.2 5.8 4.5 -2.6 4.3 4.8 3.7 1.9 3.7 5.5 7.8 3.0 4.4 6.3 9.8 4.5 4.9 5.5 6.6 1.6 5.4 5.3 5.7 .2 4.8 .5 3.9 -2.0 5.2 2.1 .3 -1.7 5.1 3.5 4.5 2.6 5.4 Corp. profits, IVA&CCAdj: Profit share of GNP I t change -12.2 7.1 -5.6 6.9 -16.6 6.5 -11.4 6.3 6.7 6.3 -.5 6.2 -39.4 5.4 -4.8 5.3 8.4 5.4 1.9 5,4 Federal govt. surpl./def. State/local surpl./def. Ex. social ins. funds Bill. $ -114.5 -110.5 -128.4 -143.3 -160.8 -156.9 -149.7 -193.6 -146.4 -206.7 42.4 -16.4 45.1 -14.8 42.6 -18.3 34.4 -27.4 30.3 -32.2 28.5 -34.9 26.1 -38.2 18.0 -46.9 20.4 -44.7 27.6 -38.0 PRICES AND COSTS GDP implicit deflator GDP fixed-wt. price * change index Cross domestic purchases fixed-wt. price index CPI Ex. food and energy ECI, hourly corpensation 2 Nonfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor cost 1. Not at an annual rate. -3.3 2.9 -2.0 1.3 -.2 3.6 6.5 3.3 3.8 2. Private-industry workers. 2.7 8.9 6.1 4.7 4.8 3.2 3.2 5.0 7.0 5.9 5.8 6.9 4.2 4.7 3.8 -1.2 7.1 9.4 .2 4.8 4.6 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS, QUARTERLY VALUES (Seasonally adjusted, annual rate except as noted) June 26, 1992 Projected 1991 Item 1992 1993 Units Q3 Q4 Nominal GDP Real GDP Bill. $ Bill. 87$ 5709.2 4862.7 5739.7 4868.0 5820.6 4900.9 5890.2 4925.6 5960.7 4953.9 Real GDP Gross domestic purchases I change 1.8 3.4 .4 -.4 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.8 -.7 1.9 -.2 .1 4.8 5.1 2.3 9.5 .0 2.2 .0 -5.7 -3.9 3.7 -3.7 6.7 -23.9 10.9 Exports Imports 7.3 22.3 Government purchases -3.4 -8.1 -8.9 -.1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 6042.1 4987.6 6132.3 5022.5 6215.8 5059.0 6301.9 5097.9 6389.8 5138.6 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 .5 1.9 1.8 2.7 2.3 3.4 2.3 3.3 2.5 3.4 2.8 3.6 3.1 3.6 5.0 15.9 5.3 2.5 1.0 -1.0 -.8 2.5 2.3 4.2 1.1 2.5 2.8 6.5 1.7 2.5 2.8 5.9 1-9 2.5 2.8 5.9 2-0 2.6 2.8 5.5 2.0 2.6 2.9 5.9 2.0 2.6 -3.4 -1.6 -7.8 12.3 3.1 3.5 2.5 11.7 6.4 10.6 -3.6 5.9 5.9 9.6 -3.1 1.6 5.4 8.6 -2.8 9.2 5.4 8.3 -2.1 6.4 5.3 7.7 -1.2 7.2 5.9 7.5 1.4 11.4 5.9 7.4 1.8 9.4 9.7 2.1 2.5 1.5 3.0 9.5 4.8 6.9 5.7 5.4 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.5 7.0 5.8 2.9 1.1 -3.4 4.1 -1.4 -.6 -3.7 -1.8 -.9 -.9 -2.4 -1.0 -2.3 -5.4 -8.6 -.1 -1.9 -5.1 -8.3 .4 -1.0 -4.4 -7.3 1.3 -.3 -3.8 -6.5 1.9 .1 -3.0 -5.3 2.1 Q4 EXPENDITURES Final sales Private don. final purch. Personal cons. expend. Durables Nondurables Services Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures Federal Defense State and local Change in bus. invent. Nonfarn Net exports Bill. 87$ Nominal GDP -5.4 -13.6 -15.7 .8 .1 7.6 -26.6 1.4 8.2 13.2 20.3 26.0 30.3 32.6 -2.8 -31.1 9.2 -21.3 -16.3 -20.1 .8 -29.3 7.3 -32.6 12.0 -32.6 18.7 -33.5 24.3 -34.7 28.3 -36.3 30.4 -35.0 i change 4.1 2.2 5.8 4.9 4.9 5.6 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.7 Nonfarm payroll employ. Unenployment rateI Millions 108.3 6.8 108.2 6.9 108.1 7.2 108.5 7.3 108.8 7.3 109.2 7.2 109.6 7.1 110.1 6.9 110.6 6.8 111.2 6.7 Industrial prod. index I change 6.6 78.7 -.7 78.2 -2.8 77.3 5.8 78.1 4.2 78.4 5.0 78.9 4.7 79.3 4.2 79.4 3.7 79.6 3.5 79.8 Millions 1.04 1.10 1.26 1.17 1.22 1.26 1.29 1.32 1.36 1.39 8.60 6.31 2.29 8.19 6.06 2.13 8.28 6.03 2.25 8.41 6.25 2.16 8.55 6.40 2.15 8.73 6.55 2.18 8.90 6.70 2.20 9.07 6.85 2.22 9.25 7.00 2.25 9.43 7.15 2.28 5720.1 4.3 5750.7 2.2 5840.7 6.4 5908.6 4.7 5982.4 5.1 6062.7 5.4 6155.9 6.4 6238.5 5.5 6326.8 5.8 6411.2 5.4 2.7 .3 5.0 3.5 .9 5.2 5.3 3.8 5.0 44. 2.1 5.3 4 .4 .6 4.9 6.1 2.7 4.9 7.4 3.8 5.1 5.9 2.7 5.1 5.9 2.6 5.0 6.4 3.1 5.1 3.5 5.4 13.0 5.5 60.8 6.1 14.9 6.2 8.8 6.3 18.8 6.5 7.3 6.5 8.6 6.5 3.4 6.5 11.6 6.6 -210.2 -243.1 -284.4 -292.2 -278.9 -273.3 -272.8 -263.6 -249.8 -244.8 31.8 -33.8 40.3 -24.8 38.9 -26.2 44.5 -21.1 51.2 -14.8 53.8 -12.6 58.1 -8.7 59.0 -8.2 63.0 -4.7 EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION Capacity util. rate-mfg Housing starts Auto sales in U.S. North American produced Other INCOME AND SAVING Nominal GNP Nominal GNP Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate I Bill. $ t change Corp. profits. IVA&CCAdJ Profit share of GNPI * change a1. Federal govt. surpl./def. S State/local surpl./def. Ex. social ins. funds 63.5 -4.8 PRICES AND COSTS 1.7 3.1 GDP fixed-wt. price index 2.1 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 2.5 2.7 Gross domestic purchases fixed-wt. price index CPI Ex. food and energy 2.2 3.6 3.7 3.0 2.9 3.9 3.0 3.6 4.0 3.3 4.1 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.7 3.1 3.2 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 1.3 3.7 2.4 1.7 3.7 2.0 1.4 4.0 2.6 a change GDP implicit deflator ECI, hourly compensation 2 Nonfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor cost annual rate. 1. rate. an annual Not at at an 1. Not 1.7 3.5 1.3 2.2 1.7 .9 2. Private-industry workers. 2. Private-industry workers. 1.5 3.6 2.1 1.6 3.6 2.0 Strictly Confidential Class II FOMC NET CHANGES IN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS1 (Billions of 1987 dollars) (FR) 1989 Item 1990 Q2 -48.2 -31.1 16.7 -82.7 -43.7 11.3 25.1 -3.1 -48.0 -29.5 -48.7 -.2 -14.0 -4.1 17.8 22.6 1.6 3.4 17.7 -29.4 -16.3 -9.0 -4.2 -10.7 -13.2 9.4 5.7 3.7 .3 -6.4 -3.0 -3.4 -8.7 11.2 10.1 1.1 -8.6 -11.0 -1.5 -9.6 -7.6 -25.4 -18.2 -7.1 -12.6 9.8 12.2 -2.4 -34.0 -43.6 9.6 26.1 21.0 5.2 -8.2 -5.6 -2.7 -45.1 -35.6 -9.5 -1.6 -5.4 3.8 9.8 15.3 5.4 14.0 10.4 -3.5 3.5 5.9 2.3 -13.2 -.5 12.9 34.5 20.9 -13.7 12.6, -10.0 -22.6 1.5 -7.0 -6.8 14.1 5.4 1.6 3.7 8.8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Real CDOP Gross domestic purchases 30.1 32.6 13.2 8.6 13.3 21.1 Final sales 9.8 -4.1 25.0 4,3 Personal cone. expend. Durables Nondurablea Services -2.0 -5.6 Q1 Q2 14.1 21.1 19.5 3.0 4.3 7.1 16.0 16.2 31.9 30.7 4.3 -7.0 55.1 27.0 -6,7 -15.3 7.7 6,3 32.5 14.4 .5 -18.7 .3 3.4 -3.8 5.1 8.1 10.0 3.9 15.3 17.2 17.1 -.9 1.1 Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures 1.2 -.9 2.1 -3.4 3.6 6.4 -2.8 -6.9 1.1 -2.3 3.4 -3.1 -3.4 -3.6 .2 -4.0 change In bus. invent. Nonfarm Farm 20.3 5.3 15.1 -2.3 -2.4 .0 -18.7 -7.5 -11.2 Net exports Exports Imports 21.5 13.0 -8.5 9.3 18.3 8.9 -7.9 1.0 9.0 Private dom. final purch. Government purchases Federal Defense Nondefenee State and local 1. Annual changes are from Q4 to 04. -. 2 8.5 1992 1991 Q1 Q1 June 26, Q3 -. 6 -4.9 -5.8 .9 4.3 Q4 1988 1989 1990 1991 10.4 154.2 120.9 80.0 47.3 -4.6 -43.4 12.9 3.0 14.4 8.3 193.1 158.3 71.0 23.9 56.6 -11.2 -26.0 -21.3 128.2 34.5 32.2 61.4 38.7 -3.6 8.5 33.8 10.2 -11.6 -10.6 32.4 28.2 30.4 -2.2 2.0 2.5 -.4 2.9 -17.4 3.2 11.3 -8.2 -24.6 -38.9 -13.9 -25.0 -1.6 -39.0 -31.6 -7.4 9.1 7.6 1.5 -61.2 -63.8 2.6 38.8 34.9 3.9 33.3 52.1 18.8 32.7 47.6 14.8 38.8 36.7 -2.0 9.9 35.5 25.6 1.5 -13.2 -9.3 -3.9 14.7 14.4 -4.5 -5.8 1.3 18.8 29.0 8.7 2.1 6.6 20.4 -14.6 -11.9 -13.3 1.4 -2.6 -. 8 3.2 2.4 .3 2.1 6.3 23.2 16.9 -. 2 1.0 -2.4 3.4 -1.0 19.3 -11.8 -8.9 40.0 NET CHANGES IN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS 1 (Billions of 1987 dollars) Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC June 26, 1992 Projected Item Real GDP final purch. Personal cons. Durables Nondurables expend. Services Businese fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures Change in bus. invent. Nonfarm Farm Net exports Exports Imports 1990 1991 1992 40.7 39.5 -4.6 -43.4 12.9 3.0 119.6 130.9 151.d 153.5 34.6 36.9 38.4 37.0 56.6 -11.2 -26.0 -21.3 114.1 129.3 131.6 141.1 23.8 6.4 5.3 12.1 23.6 6.1 5.3 12.2 24.2 6.6 5.3 12.3 10.2 -11.6 -10.6 32.4 19.3 -11.8 -8.9 40.0 90.1 25.7 18.6 45.8 94.4 25.4 20.8 48.1 3.1 7.0 7.4 -. 4 3.5 7.9 7.4 .5 5.5 3.2 11.3 -8.2 -24.6 -38.9 -13.9 -25.0 -1.6 26.3 29.0 -2.6 12.8 30.0 30.1 -.1 16.7 5.0 4.7 .3 7.1 6.7 .4 5.7 5.6 .1 4.3 4.0 .3 -61.2 -63.8 2.6 38.8 34.9 3.9 5.6 2.8 2.8 19.4 10.4 1.0 .0 8.0 8.0 -.9 8.9 9.9 -1.2 9.6 10.8 -1.6 10.0 11.6 1.2 10.3 9.1 38.8 36.7 -2.0 9.9 35.5 25.6 -11.3 22.1 33.4 -2.5 .2 29.0 8.7 2.1 6.6 20.4 -14.6 -11.9 -13.3 1.4 -2.6 -4.0 -5.5 -12.2 6.7 1.4 -7.1 -14.9 -17.6 2.7 7.8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 32.9 31.7 24.7 33.9 28.4 31.7 33.7 33.6 34.9 35.8 36.6 37.7 38.9 40.5 57.2 49.3 6.7 19.0 21.6 27.1 28.7 33.9 27.8 33.0 30.9 34.2 40.2 15.5 13.4 11.3 8.4 -1.1 -2.1 11.5 18.8 4.4 2.9 11.4 22.8 6.8 4.4 11.5 22.9 6.3 5.0 11.6 -4.4 -1.5 -3.0 3.9 3.1 .9 8.0 9.3 -1.3 7.5 8.7 -1.1 6.9 7.9 -1.0 7.1 7.8 -.8 4,5 5.2 5.1 2.7 .8 4.2 30.5 28.0 2.5 7.5 12.0 -4.5 -24.2 -25.5 1.3 18.0 17.1 .9 6.8 6.5 .3 -18.8 9.5 28.3 9.8 12.8 3.0 1.2 3.4 2.2 -9.2 4.1. 13.3 -3.3 6.6 9.9 -3.2 -2.2 -. 8 -1.6 .8 -4.3 -4.9 -5.5 -1.4 .5 Q1 Q4 33 0 5.3 -4.5 Gross domestic purchase Final sales Private dom. Projected 1993 1992 1991 S-8.6 ,-3.3 .7 18.4~: 18.8 9.4 -.1 9.6 -4.8 5.8 -10.5 Government purchases Federal Defense Nondefense State and local 1. Annual changes are from Q4 to Q4. -.1 -6.1 -10.3 16.3 -12.8 -13.8 -11.7 -2.1 1.1 Q1 -. 6 -2.5 1.9 -2.6 .7 -. 8 -3.4 -4.1 .7 2.6 -2.7 -3.3 .6 2.9 1993 38.9 41.4
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