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Presentation Materials (3.15 MB PDF)
Pages 130 to 179 of Transcript
Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
Page 1
Top panel
Title: Rates Implied by Eurodollar Futures Curve Comparison of March 19, May 6, & June 24, 2002
Series: Eurodollar futures contracts
Horizon: September 2002 - December 2004
Description: The rates implied by eurodollar futures contracts over the time period declined from
March 19, 2002 to May 6, 2002 to June 24, 2002.
Source: Bloomberg
Middle panel
Title: Eurodollar Deposit Futures Implied Volatility (December contract)
Series: Eurodollar deposit futures implied volatility
Horizon: March 1, 2002 to June 24, 2002
Description: Between March and June 2002, implied volatility on the December eurodollar deposit
futures contract rose.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom-left panel
Title: 2-Year Treasury Yield
Series: 2-year Treasury yield
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: After an initial increase in March, yields declined over the period on the 2-year
Treasury note.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom-right panel
Title: 10-Year Treasury Yield
Series: 10-year Treasury yield
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: After an initial increase in March, yields declined over the period on the 10-year
Treasury note.
Source: Bloomberg
Page 2
Top panel
Title: U.S. Dollar Versus Selected Foreign Currencies
Series: U.S. dollar exchange rate versus the Japanese Yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, British
pound, euro dollar, and Australian dollar
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: The exchange value of the dollar weakened against the aforementioned currencies over
the period.
Source: Bloomberg
Middle panel
Title: 1-month Euro-Dollar and Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Option Implied Volatility
Series: euro-dollar and dollar-yen 1-month implied volatility
Horizon: March 1, 2002 to June 24, 2002
Description: Implied volatility on 1-month dollar-yen options trended higher, while 1-month implied
volatility on euro-dollar trended lower in April and rose in late May and June.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom panel
Title: Global 10-yr. Government Bond Yields
Series: 10-year government yields from Japan, the U.S., Germany, the U.K., France, Spain, Italy,
Canada, Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand
Horizon: June 24, 2002
Description: Ten year government yields generally between 4.80 and 5.40 percent, with Japan much
lower and Australia and New Zealand higher.
Source: Bloomberg
Page 3
Top panel
Title: Domestic Equities
Series: The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: Equity indices prices declined over the period.
Source: Bloomberg
Middle panel
Title: S&P 100 Volatility Index (VIX)
Series: The VIX index
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: Volatility on the S&P 100 index rises, mostly after May.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom panel
Title: International Equities
Series: The Mexican Bolsa, U.K. FTSE, Japanese Nikkei, Swiss Market Index, German DAX
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: International equity indices fall following the May 7, 2002 FOMC meeting.
Source: Bloomberg
Page 4
Top-left panel
Title: Domestic Credit Spreads to Comparable Treasuries
Series: Spread between the 10-year Fannie Mae Benchmark yield and 10-year U.S. Treasury yield,
spread between the 10-year U.S. interest rate swap rate and 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: Both the yield on the 10-year Fannie Mae benchmark security and the rate on 10-year
U.S. interest rate swaps decline in mid-April and remain stable over the remainder of the period.
Source: Bloomberg
Top-right panel
Title: Domestic Credit Spreads to Comparable Treasuries
Series: Spread between the A-1 Industrial Corporate yield and 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, spread
between the 30-year Fannie Mae Current Coupon MBS to 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield.
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: The spreads decline following the April 23, 2002 downgrade to WorldCom, and widen
following the May 29, 2002 downgrade to AT&T.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom panel
Title: U.S. Corporate High Yield, EMBI+ and the Brazilian Sub-Component
Series: Brazilian sub-component of the JPMorgan EMBI+ index (sovereign spread), JPMorgan
EMBI+ index (sovereign spread), and Merrill Lynch high yield index (sovereign spread).
Horizon: March 1, 2002 - June 24, 2002
Description: Spreads on the Brazilian sub-component widen the most, with the overall JPMorgan
EMBI+ sovereign spread and Merrill Lynch high yield spread widening to a less extent.
Source: Bloomberg
Page 5
Top panel
Title: Currency Component of M1 (excludes vault cash) Seasonally Adjusted
Series: currency component of M1, current estimates, and estimates as of the May FOMC meeting.
Horizon: December 2001 - December 2002
Description: Currency grew from December 2001 to May 2002, and is forecasted to grow through
the end of 2002.
Bottom panel
Title: Total Outright Purchases and Net Soma Expansion
Series: SOMA portfolio purchases to offset redemptions, net portfolio expansion
Horizon: 1996 - 2002
Description: The SOMA portfolio was forecasted to increase over $60 billion in 2002.
Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Rolnick
Slide 1
Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation?
40 years of debate
June 25, 2002
FOMC
Arthur J. Rolnick
Slide 2
1. The Phillips Curve has not been stable.
2. Unemployment is not useful for predicting inflation.
3. In the long run, money growth is a reliable predictor of inflation.
Slide 3
The Phillips Curve:
The U.S. Experience
1960-2000
Slide 4
There was a clear negative relationship in 1959-69…
Chart. A scatterplot with a trendline. The x-axis is labeled Unemployment. The y-axis is labeled
Inflation. The trendline has negative slope, approximately -1.28. Approximate values for the data
points are as follows.
Unemployment
Inflation
3.40
3.40
5.47
5.06
3.43
5.50
3.53
5.17
3.57
4.89
3.57
4.88
3.57
3.70
4.67
3.18
3.73
4.35
3.77
2.93
3.80
4.18
Unemployment
Inflation
3.83
4.26
3.83
3.90
3.83
2.96
3.87
3.10
3.90
4.10
4.47
3.36
4.37
3.18
4.67
2.54
4.90
2.18
4.97
2.02
5.00
5.10
1.87
1.46
5.13
1.22
5.20
1.83
5.23
1.12
5.27
1.59
5.47
5.50
1.67
1.68
5.53
1.44
5.53
1.03
5.53
1.01
5.57
1.41
5.57
0.96
5.60
1.45
5.63
1.05
5.73
1.47
5.77
1.34
5.83
1.14
6.20
6.27
1.32
1.03
6.77
1.33
6.80
1.42
7.00
1.37
Slide 5
…But it disappeared in 1970-2000…
Chart. A scatterplot with a trendline. The x-axis is labeled Unemployment. The y-axis is labeled
Inflation. The trendline has positive slope, approximately 0.16. Approximate values for the data
points are as follows.
Unemployment
3.97
Inflation
1.84
Unemployment
Inflation
4.00
2.22
4.03
2.26
4.07
2.31
4.10
2.40
4.17
4.23
4.95
2.37
4.27
2.00
4.30
2.23
4.43
1.39
4.43
1.50
4.53
4.63
1.36
1.31
4.67
1.13
4.77
4.92
4.77
9.96
4.80
9.11
4.87
4.93
1.23
7.34
4.93
8.00
5.00
1.16
5.13
10.46
5.17
5.11
5.20
3.56
5.20
9.55
5.23
1.39
5.23
3.72
5.23
3.95
5.27
1.88
5.30
5.33
4.12
1.83
5.33
3.52
5.33
3.69
5.37
6.76
5.37
4.07
5.47
5.47
1.97
3.54
5.47
3.96
5.50
2.06
5.53
1.94
5.57
1.86
5.57
5.63
5.90
2.09
5.63
8.37
5.67
1.90
Unemployment
Inflation
5.67
1.93
5.70
3.39
5.70
4.00
5.70
5.06
5.70
5.77
8.58
4.06
5.83
3.59
5.83
4.63
5.87
8.64
5.87
8.68
5.90
5.90
3.90
8.33
5.93
4.30
5.93
4.59
5.97
9.26
6.00
2.08
6.00
6.00
3.62
7.93
6.03
3.86
6.03
8.31
6.13
3.06
6.20
2.22
6.27
3.21
6.30
9.60
6.33
7.58
6.57
2.25
6.60
2.67
6.60
2.93
6.60
6.63
7.20
2.04
6.67
7.17
6.80
2.14
6.83
2.51
6.83
3.17
6.87
6.90
2.18
7.19
6.97
3.04
7.03
2.15
7.03
2.67
7.07
1.99
7.10
7.13
2.27
2.08
7.13
6.66
7.17
2.92
Unemployment
Inflation
7.20
2.22
7.23
2.28
7.30
2.09
7.30
2.93
7.33
7.37
9.19
2.34
7.37
2.39
7.40
5.86
7.40
6.38
7.40
8.07
7.43
7.43
2.91
3.24
7.43
6.89
7.50
6.37
7.57
6.40
7.60
2.32
7.63
7.67
2.44
8.88
7.73
6.23
7.73
5.78
7.77
6.47
7.87
3.36
8.23
5.09
8.27
6.01
8.30
5.27
8.47
5.24
8.53
3.48
8.83
4.45
8.87
9.37
5.62
3.65
9.43
4.06
9.90
3.55
10.13
3.72
10.37
3.81
10.67
3.38
Slide 6
A new Phillips Curve emerged in 1970-84…
Unemployment and Changes in Inflation
Chart. A scatterplot with a trendline. The x-axis is labeled Unemployment. The y-axis is labeled
Changes in Inflation. The trendline has negative slope, approximately -0.69. The trendline intersects
the horizontal line y = 0 at approximately x = 6.72; the intersection is labeled NAIRU,
Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment. Approximate values for the plotted points are as
follows.
Unemployment
Changes in Inflation
4.17
-0.52
4.77
3.20
4.77
-0.58
4.80
3.21
4.93
4.93
3.28
2.94
5.13
3.12
5.17
0.23
5.20
1.55
5.37
2.46
5.57
5.63
2.04
-0.74
5.70
1.16
5.70
0.65
5.77
-0.54
5.83
-0.26
5.87
5.87
1.06
0.37
5.90
1.17
5.90
-1.02
5.93
-0.33
5.93
-0.36
5.97
0.93
6.00
1.26
6.03
1.12
6.03
-1.25
6.30
0.96
6.33
1.21
6.60
6.67
-2.76
0.70
6.90
0.96
7.13
0.27
7.33
0.61
7.40
-1.19
7.40
7.40
-2.80
-3.02
7.43
-2.70
7.50
0.58
7.57
0.78
7.67
0.20
7.73
7.73
0.98
-0.23
Unemployment
Changes in Inflation
7.77
1.20
8.23
-2.98
8.27
-4.45
8.30
-1.93
8.47
8.53
-3.13
0.10
8.83
-2.44
8.87
-3.93
9.37
0.10
9.43
-2.32
9.90
10.13
-2.31
-0.34
10.37
-0.64
10.67
-1.71
Slide 7
…But the new Phillips Curve became less visible (1984-2000)…
Chart. A scatterplot with a trendline. The x-axis is labeled Unemployment. The y-axis is labeled
Changes in Inflation. The trendline has negative slope, approximately -0.17. Approximate values for
the plotted points are as follows.
Unemployment
Changes in Inflation
3.97
-0.57
4.00
-0.01
4.03
0.27
4.07
-0.05
4.10
0.90
4.23
1.00
4.27
4.30
0.68
0.85
4.43
0.38
4.43
0.23
4.53
0.14
4.63
-0.08
4.67
4.87
-0.71
-0.65
5.00
-0.90
5.20
-0.43
5.23
0.41
5.23
-0.23
5.23
5.27
-0.55
-0.06
Unemployment
Changes in Inflation
5.30
0.56
5.33
-0.02
5.33
-0.03
5.33
-0.08
5.37
5.47
0.56
0.75
5.47
-0.08
5.47
-0.28
5.50
0.16
5.53
-0.03
5.57
5.63
-0.23
0.05
5.67
-0.14
5.67
-0.32
5.70
1.07
5.70
-0.56
5.83
6.00
0.42
0.58
6.00
-0.07
6.13
-1.01
6.20
0.23
6.27
0.29
6.57
0.17
6.60
0.26
6.60
-1.45
6.63
-0.36
6.80
-0.30
6.83
1.02
6.83
6.87
-1.18
-1.21
6.97
0.82
7.03
0.39
7.03
-0.78
7.07
-0.32
7.10
7.13
-0.79
-0.26
7.17
0.83
7.20
-0.69
7.23
-1.08
7.30
-0.55
7.30
7.37
-1.15
0.12
7.37
-0.33
7.43
-0.49
Unemployment
Changes in Inflation
7.43
-0.74
7.60
-0.19
7.63
0.26
7.87
-0.45
Slide 8
1. The Phillips Curve has not been stable.
Slide 9
Some economists still insist that unemployment can predict inflation.
The test: Can NAIRU-based models forecast better than a naive model?
Slide 10
The Naive Model
Inflation over the next period is predicted to be equal to inflation over the previous period
Slide 11
Title: NAIRU-based Board Staff Model has not forecasted better than the Naive Model
Series: Three alternative forecasts of CPI inflation over the next four quarters. The forecast labeled
"NAIRU-based Board Staff Model" are CPI forecasts drawn from past issues of the Federal Reserve
Staff's Greenbook. The forecast labeled "Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters" are
the CPI forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional
Forecasters. These historical forecasts are available at Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation
Forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters. The forecast labeled "Naive Model" is equal to CPI
inflation over the previous four quarters.
Horizon: 1984:Q1 - 2000:Q2
Description: This chart provides a visual comparison of the history of these three alternative CPI
inflation forecasts.
Slide 12
Evaluating Forecasting Models
A better forecasting model has smaller average forecasting error
The measure of success: \frac{Average Error of NAIRU Model}{Average Error of Naive
Model}
NAIRU wins if the the measure is less than one
Slide 13
Title: A large class of NAIRU-based models have not forecasted better than the Naive Model
Series: Ratios of Root Mean Squared Forecast Error of NAIRU-based Model to the Root Mean
Squared Forecast Error of a Naive Model
Horizon: Forecasts from 1984-1999
Description: This chart summarizes results on forecasts comparisons published in Andrew Atkeson
and Lee Ohanian's (2001) article "Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation (1.00 MB
PDF)" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review vol. 25, no. 1, Winter, pp. 2-11. The
numbers plotted in this chart are the three numbers in the second column of numbers (labeled
"Maximum") in the table titled "Why Use the NAIRU Phillips Curve?" in that article.
Slide 14
2. Unemployment is not useful for predicting inflation.
Slide 15
The Quantity Theory:
International Evidence for 94 Countries
1960-1990
Slide 16
Money growth and inflation are highly correlated over the long-term
(Approximately 25 year averages)
Chart. A scatterplot with points clustered around a dashed line with slope = 1. The x-axis is labeled
Money (M2) growth (percent). The y-axis is labeled Inflation rate (percent). Approximate values for
the plotted points are as follows.
Money (M2) growth
(percent)
Inflation rate
(percent)
7.24
3.89
7.56
4.92
8.25
8.70
4.84
3.36
9.30
4.52
9.53
7.06
9.59
3.48
10.03
3.72
10.06
10.13
7.16
6.49
10.30
6.79
10.32
4.32
10.50
5.40
10.57
10.06
10.80
10.88
5.05
6.78
10.96
6.60
11.03
8.29
11.03
4.17
11.12
4.50
11.34
11.50
9.51
6.73
11.82
8.72
Money (M2) growth
(percent)
Inflation rate
(percent)
11.86
6.31
12.05
5.79
12.05
12.18
6.00
5.80
12.22
8.16
12.51
7.34
12.53
5.34
12.62
5.56
12.63
7.42
12.64
8.42
12.64
9.20
12.76
7.65
12.79
3.27
12.79
9.53
12.89
12.92
7.87
7.33
12.97
6.60
13.15
4.48
13.32
8.53
13.41
8.28
13.42
13.44
8.68
5.58
13.72
8.53
13.74
3.62
13.78
7.36
13.81
7.71
13.91
13.94
7.57
5.46
14.03
8.60
14.11
8.48
14.22
7.35
14.28
9.05
14.30
14.54
8.09
8.82
14.67
7.24
14.84
10.22
15.00
9.50
15.46
11.17
15.73
15.84
12.89
6.71
15.95
9.82
15.99
12.18
16.05
5.28
16.05
8.66
Money (M2) growth
(percent)
Inflation rate
(percent)
16.08
12.31
16.12
10.03
16.42
16.69
10.94
14.64
16.76
8.20
16.83
8.55
16.96
12.60
16.97
8.21
17.02
10.62
17.14
9.49
17.32
9.82
17.57
12.53
17.88
11.38
18.07
12.70
18.10
18.27
11.88
10.93
18.46
4.75
18.94
17.66
19.60
10.15
19.76
8.21
20.24
20.76
12.22
13.70
20.83
11.72
21.41
15.75
21.56
10.43
22.25
17.31
24.80
25.12
24.98
10.70
26.25
28.49
27.55
22.80
29.63
22.88
29.64
22.69
31.42
37.40
13.40
35.40
38.09
30.38
40.48
17.02
41.62
34.13
45.61
35.37
47.72
47.92
45.02
52.36
48.52
54.10
52.44
42.26
82.03
80.76
Slide 17
3. In the long run, money growth is a reliable predictor of inflation.
Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. Roberts and Mr. Lebow
Material for Board Staff Presentation on Explaining Low Inflation Since the Mid-1990s
Division of Research and Statistics
June 25, 2002
Exhibit 1
Overview
Top-left panel
Unemployment Rate
Percent
Unemployment Rate
1990:Q1
5.3000
1990:Q2
5.3000
1990:Q3
5.7000
1990:Q4
6.1000
1991:Q1
6.6000
1991:Q2
6.8000
1991:Q3
6.9000
1991:Q4
7.1000
1992:Q1
7.4000
1992:Q2
7.6000
1992:Q3
7.6000
1992:Q4
7.4000
1993:Q1
7.2000
1993:Q2
7.1000
1993:Q3
1993:Q4
6.8000
6.6000
1994:Q1
6.6000
1994:Q2
6.2000
1994:Q3
6.0000
1994:Q4
5.6000
1995:Q1
1995:Q2
5.5000
5.7000
1995:Q3
5.7000
1995:Q4
5.6000
1996:Q1
5.5000
1996:Q2
5.5000
Unemployment Rate
1996:Q3
5.3000
1996:Q4
5.3000
1997:Q1
5.2000
1997:Q2
5.0000
1997:Q3
1997:Q4
4.9000
4.7000
1998:Q1
4.6000
1998:Q2
4.4000
1998:Q3
4.5000
1998:Q4
4.4000
1999:Q1
1999:Q2
4.3000
4.3000
1999:Q3
4.2000
1999:Q4
4.1000
2000:Q1
4.0000
2000:Q2
4.0000
2000:Q3
2000:Q4
4.1000
4.0000
2001:Q1
4.2000
2001:Q2
4.5000
2001:Q3
4.8000
2001:Q4
5.6000
2002:Q1
5.6000
Top-right panel
Core PCE Prices
Four-quarter percent change
1990:Q1
Core PCE Prices
3.8015
1990:Q2
4.2535
1990:Q3
4.6284
1990:Q4
4.5030
1991:Q1
4.6172
1991:Q2
1991:Q3
4.1654
3.9470
1991:Q4
3.9242
1992:Q1
3.9421
1992:Q2
3.8302
1992:Q3
3.4369
1992:Q4
1993:Q1
3.2873
2.7916
1993:Q2
2.7340
1993:Q3
2.6566
Core PCE Prices
1993:Q4
2.3997
1994:Q1
2.1197
1994:Q2
2.0555
1994:Q3
2.3858
1994:Q4
1995:Q1
2.2673
2.5889
1995:Q2
2.5271
1995:Q3
2.2762
1995:Q4
2.2739
1996:Q1
2.0387
1996:Q2
1996:Q3
1.8695
1.7390
1996:Q4
1.8341
1997:Q1
1.9658
1997:Q2
2.1088
1997:Q3
1.9768
1997:Q4
1998:Q1
1.7276
1.5449
1998:Q2
1.3899
1998:Q3
1.5214
1998:Q4
1.5763
1999:Q1
1.5253
1999:Q2
1.4174
1999:Q3
1.4089
1999:Q4
1.4845
2000:Q1
1.8451
2000:Q2
1.9684
2000:Q3
1.9913
2000:Q4
2001:Q1
1.9258
1.8531
2001:Q2
1.5868
2001:Q3
1.2942
2001:Q4
1.5996
2002:Q1
1.1992
Middle panel
Questions
Have changes been occurring in the economy, over time, that have altered the inflation
process?
Why did inflation remain so low in the late 1990s when unemployment was also low?
Can the recent good performance be repeated in coming years?
Bottom panel
Three key factors
1. Changes in monetary policy
A relatively small part of the recent story.
2. The pickup of productivity growth
Our main explanation for the late 1990s; effects should diminish
over time.
3. Labor market developments
Also important; effects likely to persist.
Exhibit 2
The FRB/US Model of Inflation Dynamics
Top panel
\pi_t=\beta\pi_{t-1}+(1-\beta)\pi_t^e-\gamma(U_t-U_t^n) + relative price shocks + unit labor
costs
\pi
= rate of price inflation
\pi^e
= expected rate of price inflation
U
= unemployment rate
U^n
= natural rate of unemployment
\beta, \gamma = coefficients
\pi^e reflects knowledge of the structure of the economy, including the conduct of monetary
policy.
How do our factors fit in this model?
Changes in the conduct of monetary policy alter the influence of U on \pi^e.
Changes in labor productivity growth affect inflation through unit labor costs.
Labor market developments shift U^n
Movements of (U-U^n) explain about 20 percent of the variation of year-to-year changes in
inflation.
Exhibit 3
Monetary Policy
Top panel
Change in Core PCE Inflation vs. Unemployment
Top-left and top-right panels
Each panel presents a scatter plot with the four-quarter moving average of the unemployment rate
plotted along the horizontal axis and the four-quarter change in the four-quarter percent change in the
price index for personal consumption expenditures other than food and energy plotted along the
vertical axis. In addition, each panel presents a regression line based on an OLS regression where the
plotted change in inflation is the variable to be explained and the moving average of the
unemployment rate is the explanatory variable. The panel on the left covers the period 1960 to 1983;
the panel on the right, 1984 to 2001. The slope of the regression line in the earlier period (plotted on
the left) is less than that for the latter period (plotted on the right). The plotted data points broadly
follow this pattern. However, the data are much more dispersed around the regression line in the
earlier period. In particular, the data on the change in inflation covers nearly the entire plotted
vertical range (from -4 to +5), whereas the range of the data in the plot to the right is considerably
narrower, running from -2 to +1.
Bottom panel
Since the early 1980s, monetary policy has moved more aggressively to stabilize the economy
than in the 1960s and 1970s.
In FRB/US, such a change reduces the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment.
Attars the formation of inflation expectations.
Low unemployment is no longer as strong a signal of higher future inflation.
Sensitivity reduced by about a third.
So, low unemployment in the late 1990s induced less deterioration in inflation expectations.
and thus in actual inflation.
But policymakers cannot "exploit" this lower sensitivity.
A reversion to a less-aggressive policy would alter how expectations are formed.
Exhibit 4
Productivity
Top panel
Hourly compensation responds only gradually when productivity accelerates.
Costs of acquiring and processing information.
Unit labor costs rise less rapidly, helping hold down inflation.
A lower unemployment rate is consistent with stable inflation.
Effect may be long-lived but not permanent.
Effect worked in the opposite direction in the 1970s.
Middle panel
Estimated Effect of Productivity on Hourly Compensation
Estimated effect of productivity on hourly compensation. The period covered is from 1963 to early
2002, and the data are in percent. The panel presents two series. The staff estimate of structural
productivity growth fluctuates between 2½ percent and 3½ percent from 1963 through 1973, moves
down to around 1 to 1½ percent from 1974 through 1992, and then gradually rises to greater than 3
percent in 1999 and 2000 before falling back to 2½ percent in 2001 and early 2002. The second
series is an estimate of the contribution of this structural productivity series to the growth in hourly
compensation and looks like a smoothed and somewhat lagged version of the productivity series: It
declines gradually from 3 percent in the mid-1960s to about 1½ percent by 1983, remains near that
level until 1994, and then moves up gradually to 2½ percent by 2000.
Bottom-left panel
Estimated Effect on the Stable-Inflation Unemployment Rate
The panel presents the estimated effect of productivity growth on the stable-inflation unemployment
rate, along with a 70 percent confidence interval around that estimate. The period covered is from
1963 to early 2002, and the data are in percentage points. The estimated effect moves up from zero in
1973 to 1 percent by 1976; gradually moves back down to zero by about 1984 and stays around zero
through 1993; declines and reaches below -1 percent from 1998 to 2000; and then moves back to
zero by late 2001. The width of the 70 percent confidence interval varies somewhat over time but
generally averages between ¼ and ½ percentage point both above and below the estimated effect.
Bottom-right panel
Caveats
Uncertain speed of adjustment
Results sensitive to measure of structural productivity
Exhibit 5
Labor Market Developments and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Top panel
Impact on the Natural Rate of Unemployment In Recent Years
Lower natural rate
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Incarceration
Disability insurance
Help supply
Worker insecurity
The Internet
Neutral effect
1. Minimum wage
2. Unemployment insurance
3. Demographics
Higher natural rate
1. Welfare reform
Middle panel
Factors pushing natural rate lower
Middle-left panel
Percent of population
Disability insurance
recipients
Help supply employment
Incarceration
1963
0.667258
NA
NA
1964
0.710555
NA
NA
1965
1966
0.773107
0.844952
NA
NA
NA
NA
1967
0.903779
NA
NA
1968
0.964295
NA
NA
1969
1.019155
NA
NA
1970
1.070478
NA
NA
1971
1972
1.158071
1.262241
NA
NA
NA
NA
1973
1.360536
NA
NA
1974
1.478687
NA
NA
1975
1.612612
NA
NA
1976
1.696862
NA
NA
1977
1.769693
NA
NA
Disability insurance
recipients
Help supply employment
Incarceration
1978
1.764301
NA
NA
1979
1.729218
NA
NA
1980
1.695018
NA
0.298603
1981
1.622275
NA
0.325329
1982
1.500636
0.240352
0.353027
1983
1.462021
0.278113
0.368489
1984
1.460142
0.361427
0.383970
1985
1.477154
0.407316
0.413793
1986
1.500769
0.460429
0.440474
1987
1.516453
0.538652
0.467424
1988
1.525161
0.606898
0.512683
1989
1.544939
0.648933
0.575744
1990
1.591275
0.680951
0.607014
1991
1.672058
0.664115
0.637959
1992
1993
1.797255
1.912099
0.731369
0.857274
0.671266
0.702649
1994
2.013420
1.025560
0.750202
1995
2.104758
1.101116
0.797344
1996
2.182683
1.171025
0.819198
1997
2.220074
1.308827
0.858702
1998
1999
2.289237
2.352336
1.426198
1.566547
0.885326
0.912645
2000
2.405310
1.664815
0.922325
2001
NA
1.455590
NA
NA not applicable Return to table
Middle-right panel
Index
ISR employment
insecurity index
1979
17.00000
1980
12.00000
1981
12.00000
1982
14.00000
1983
1984
13.00000
21.00000
1985
24.00000
1986
19.00000
1987
20.00000
1988
22.00000
1989
1990
21.00000
20.00000
ISR employment
insecurity index
1991
25.00000
1992
31.00000
1993
38.00000
1994
44.00000
1995
46.00000
1996
46.00000
1997
44.00000
1998
37.00000
1999
33.00000
2000
32.00000
2001
35.00000
Bottom-left panel
Factor pushing natural rate higher
Percent of population
Families on welfare
1963
0.764066
1964
0.788293
1965
0.812953
1966
1967
0.837875
0.921867
1968
1.049684
1969
1.241151
1970
1.583187
1971
1.941265
1972
1973
2.099700
2.123828
1974
2.135185
1975
2.266544
1976
2.274380
1977
2.237819
1978
1979
2.157763
2.113532
1980
2.201183
1981
2.241015
1982
2.041229
1983
2.097776
1984
1985
2.088515
2.057863
1986
2.069946
1987
2.055193
1988
2.020005
Families on welfare
1989
2.026763
1990
2.143644
1991
2.353585
1992
2.502784
1993
1994
2.571980
2.556881
1995
2.409255
1996
2.206839
1997
1.841887
1998
1.486263
1999
2000
1.244404
1.056511
2001
0.992737
Bottom-right panel
On balance:
Demographics aside, the natural rate may be about 1/2 percentage point lower than in the
mid-1980s.
One reason we don't favor a larger number:
Errors in hourly compensation models have not been large, on average, in recent years.
Exhibit 6
Accounting for Inflation since 1995
(based on dynamic simulations of the FRB/US price-wage sector)
Top-left panel
Core PCE Inflation
Four-quarter percent change
Actual
Simulation including all Simulation excluding all
three factors
three factors
ND
ND
1990:Q1
3.8015
1990:Q2
4.2535
ND
ND
1990:Q3
4.6284
ND
ND
1990:Q4
4.5030
ND
ND
1991:Q1
4.6172
ND
ND
1991:Q2
1991:Q3
4.1654
3.9470
ND
ND
ND
ND
1991:Q4
3.9242
ND
ND
1992:Q1
3.9421
ND
ND
1992:Q2
3.8302
ND
ND
1992:Q3
3.4369
ND
ND
1992:Q4
1993:Q1
3.2873
2.7916
ND
ND
ND
ND
Actual
Simulation including all Simulation excluding all
three factors
three factors
1993:Q2
2.7340
ND
ND
1993:Q3
2.6566
ND
ND
1993:Q4
2.3997
ND
ND
1994:Q1
2.1197
ND
ND
1994:Q2
2.0555
ND
ND
1994:Q3
2.3858
ND
ND
1994:Q4
2.2673
ND
ND
1995:Q1
2.5889
2.6116
2.6285
1995:Q2
2.5271
2.5720
2.6171
1995:Q3
2.2762
2.2775
2.3460
1995:Q4
2.2739
2.4443
2.5432
1996:Q1
2.0387
2.2792
2.4033
1996:Q2
1.8695
2.1515
2.3061
1996:Q3
1.7390
2.1825
2.3968
1996:Q4
1997:Q1
1.8341
1.9658
2.2801
1.8415
2.5781
2.2154
1997:Q2
2.1088
1.8207
2.2895
1997:Q3
1.9768
1.6096
2.1911
1997:Q4
1.7276
1.0356
1.7429
1998:Q1
1.5449
1.2678
2.1492
1998:Q2
1998:Q3
1.3899
1.5214
1.0107
0.8570
2.0745
2.1169
1998:Q4
1.5763
1.0709
2.4984
1999:Q1
1.5253
0.7579
2.3500
1999:Q2
1.4174
0.6955
2.4490
1999:Q3
1.4089
0.8347
2.7332
1999:Q4
2000:Q1
1.4845
1.8451
0.8087
1.1053
2.8901
3.3720
2000:Q2
1.9684
1.3002
3.7599
2000:Q3
1.9913
1.4057
4.0606
2000:Q4
1.9258
1.3837
4.1991
2001:Q1
1.8531
1.4898
4.4490
2001:Q2
2001:Q3
1.5868
1.2942
1.4713
1.4343
4.5110
4.5119
2001:Q4
1.5996
1.8079
4.8763
2002:Q1
1.1983
1.4831
4.4697
Top-right panel
Contributions to the 2002:Q1 Difference Between the Two Simulations (percent)
Productivity acceleration
63
Labor market developments
25
Change in monetary policy
12
Middle panel
The role of pricing power
Firms appear to lack "pricing power" in the low-inflation economy.
This perception may be a natural consequence of accelerating productivity:
Innovation may create winners and losers; the losers "lack pricing power."
A productivity acceleration causes profit share to rise and then decline.
Greater competition -- from globalization, deregulation, and the low-inflation environment -may also have reduced pricing power.
Reduced pricing power may spur firms to seek new technologies.
Bottom panel
Looking ahead
If monetary policy remains aggressive, the smaller sensitivity of inflation to unemployment
should continue.
The productivity effect will fade, but may persist a while longer.
Labor market developments should have a durable effect.
Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. Stockton, Mr. Oliner, and Ms. Johnson
Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook
June 25, 2002
Chart 1
Forecast Overview
Top-left panel
Real GDP
(Percent change, annual rate)
2002
Q1
Q2
Current
5.7
2.0
(June GB)
5.5
1.8
Top-right panel
Real GDP and Final Sales
Four-quarter percent change
1997:Q1
4.43
Real
Final Sales
GDP-Forecast
ND
3.87
1997:Q2
4.22
ND
Real GDP
3.47
Final SalesForecast
ND
ND
Real GDP
Real
GDP-Forecast
Final Sales
Final SalesForecast
1997:Q3
4.78
ND
4.78
ND
1997:Q4
4.31
ND
3.91
ND
1998:Q1
4.74
ND
4.02
ND
1998:Q2
3.82
ND
4.40
ND
1998:Q3
3.80
ND
3.55
ND
1998:Q4
4.77
ND
4.66
ND
1999:Q1
4.02
ND
4.40
ND
1999:Q2
3.89
ND
4.02
ND
1999:Q3
4.02
ND
4.38
ND
1999:Q4
4.41
ND
4.28
ND
2000:Q1
4.23
ND
4.74
ND
2000:Q2
5.22
ND
4.73
ND
2000:Q3
4.38
ND
4.26
ND
2000:Q4
2.81
ND
3.35
ND
2001:Q1
2001:Q2
2.55
1.22
ND
ND
3.16
2.36
ND
ND
2001:Q3
0.54
ND
1.64
ND
2001:Q4
0.48
ND
1.99
ND
2002:Q1
1.52
1.50
1.49
1.50
2002:Q2
ND
1.88
ND
1.47
2002:Q3
2002:Q4
ND
ND
3.07
3.54
ND
ND
2.20
2.13
2003:Q1
ND
3.16
ND
2.45
2003:Q2
ND
3.73
ND
3.14
2003:Q3
ND
3.94
ND
3.48
2003:Q4
ND
4.10
ND
3.63
ND no data Return to table
Middle-left panel
Unemployment Rate
Percent
Unemployment
Rate
Forecast
1997:Q1
5.20
ND
1997:Q2
5.00
ND
1997:Q3
4.90
ND
1997:Q4
4.70
ND
1998:Q1
1998:Q2
4.60
4.40
ND
ND
1998:Q3
4.50
ND
1998:Q4
4.40
ND
1999:Q1
4.30
ND
Unemployment
Rate
Forecast
1999:Q2
4.30
ND
1999:Q3
4.20
ND
1999:Q4
4.10
ND
2000:Q1
4.00
ND
2000:Q2
4.00
ND
2000:Q3
4.10
ND
2000:Q4
4.00
ND
2001:Q1
4.20
ND
2001:Q2
4.50
ND
2001:Q3
4.80
ND
2001:Q4
5.60
ND
2002:Q1
5.60
5.60
2002:Q2
ND
5.94
2002:Q3
ND
6.02
2002:Q4
2003:Q1
ND
ND
5.89
5.86
2003:Q2
ND
5.72
2003:Q3
ND
5.58
2003:Q4
ND
5.50
Middle-right panel
Total and Core PCE Inflation
Four-quarter percent change
Total
Total-Forecast
Core
Core-Forecast
1997:Q1
2.35
ND
1.97
ND
1997:Q2
1997:Q3
1.99
1.90
ND
ND
2.11
1.98
ND
ND
1997:Q4
1.54
ND
1.73
ND
1998:Q1
1.08
ND
1.54
ND
1998:Q2
1.04
ND
1.39
ND
1998:Q3
1.07
ND
1.52
ND
1998:Q4
1999:Q1
1.09
1.27
ND
ND
1.58
1.53
ND
ND
1999:Q2
1.53
ND
1.42
ND
1999:Q3
1.75
ND
1.41
ND
1999:Q4
2.01
ND
1.48
ND
2000:Q1
2.67
ND
1.85
ND
2000:Q2
2000:Q3
2.69
2.73
ND
ND
1.97
1.99
ND
ND
2000:Q4
2.61
ND
1.93
ND
2001:Q1
2.41
ND
1.85
ND
2001:Q2
2.22
ND
1.59
ND
Total
Total-Forecast
Core
Core-Forecast
2001:Q3
1.56
ND
1.29
ND
2001:Q4
1.28
ND
1.60
ND
2002:Q1
0.67
0.67
1.20
1.20
2002:Q2
ND
0.96
ND
1.47
2002:Q3
2002:Q4
ND
ND
1.33
1.48
ND
ND
1.71
1.37
2003:Q1
ND
1.65
ND
1.48
2003:Q2
ND
1.36
ND
1.39
2003:Q3
ND
1.39
ND
1.37
2003:Q4
ND
1.36
ND
1.36
Bottom-left panel
Staff Projection
Percent change
Q4/Q4
Real GDP
Unemployment Rate
PCE Prices
June
2002 2003
3.5
4.1
(Jan.)
2.7
3.6
June
5.9
5.7
(Jan.)
6.0
5.9
June
1.5
1.4
(Jan.)
1.3
1.2
Bottom-right panel
Revision to Projection since January
Percentage points, Q4/Q4
Real GDP
2002
.8
Contributions:
Household Spending
.5
Business Fixed Investment
.4
Government
.0
Net Exports
Inventories
.1
-.2
Chart 2
Near-term Indicators
Top-left panel
Manufacturing Industrial Production
(Average monthly percent change)
Percent
2000
0.09
2001:H1
-0.58
2001:H2
-0.40
2002:Q1
0.46
Apr 2002
May 2002
0.16
0.22
Top-right panel
IP-based Days' Supply of Inventories*
Days
3-month moving
average
monthly
Jan 1997
57.14
56.97
Feb 1997
57.00
56.88
Mar 1997
Apr 1997
56.93
57.02
56.94
57.24
May 1997
56.98
56.76
Jun 1997
57.11
57.32
Jul 1997
56.88
56.57
Aug 1997
56.69
56.19
Sep 1997
56.30
56.15
Oct 1997
56.25
56.40
Nov 1997
56.15
55.91
Dec 1997
56.02
55.76
Jan 1998
55.96
56.23
Feb 1998
56.16
56.50
Mar 1998
Apr 1998
56.36
56.33
56.35
56.14
May 1998
56.16
55.99
Jun 1998
55.98
55.80
Jul 1998
56.24
56.92
Aug 1998
56.25
56.04
Sep 1998
Oct 1998
56.39
56.15
56.21
56.22
Nov 1998
56.28
56.41
Dec 1998
56.10
55.67
Jan 1999
55.99
55.90
Feb 1999
55.64
55.33
Mar 1999
Apr 1999
55.65
55.64
55.71
55.88
May 1999
55.64
55.32
Jun 1999
55.40
55.00
3-month moving
average
monthly
Jul 1999
55.24
55.41
Aug 1999
55.22
55.25
Sep 1999
55.43
55.61
Oct 1999
55.27
54.95
Nov 1999
55.30
55.34
Dec 1999
54.93
54.50
Jan 2000
54.99
55.14
Feb 2000
54.81
54.79
Mar 2000
54.83
54.57
Apr 2000
54.62
54.50
May 2000
54.38
54.08
Jun 2000
54.44
54.75
Jul 2000
54.67
55.17
Aug 2000
55.17
55.57
Sep 2000
Oct 2000
55.12
55.03
54.61
54.91
Nov 2000
55.02
55.54
Dec 2000
55.33
55.55
Jan 2001
55.56
55.59
Feb 2001
55.41
55.09
Mar 2001
Apr 2001
55.17
55.10
54.83
55.37
May 2001
55.22
55.45
Jun 2001
55.33
55.17
Jul 2001
55.30
55.27
Aug 2001
55.32
55.53
Sep 2001
Oct 2001
55.45
54.85
55.55
53.47
Nov 2001
54.46
54.38
Dec 2001
54.37
55.27
Jan 2002
54.70
54.46
Feb 2002
54.54
53.90
Mar 2002
Apr 2002
53.95
53.70
53.49
53.71
May 2002
53.60
53.59
Jun 2002
53.68
53.75
*Manufacturing Return to text
Middle-left panel
ISM New Orders Index
Diffusion Index, monthly
Percent
Percent
Jul 1997
61.30
Aug 1997
60.20
Sep 1997
55.20
Oct 1997
60.80
Nov 1997
Dec 1997
57.10
57.00
Jan 1998
57.00
Feb 1998
55.00
Mar 1998
55.20
Apr 1998
55.80
May 1998
Jun 1998
51.50
50.60
Jul 1998
52.00
Aug 1998
50.70
Sep 1998
48.50
Oct 1998
47.60
Nov 1998
Dec 1998
47.60
49.70
Jan 1999
52.00
Feb 1999
55.80
Mar 1999
56.70
Apr 1999
54.40
May 1999
58.40
Jun 1999
60.10
Jul 1999
54.40
Aug 1999
57.30
Sep 1999
62.00
Oct 1999
60.50
Nov 1999
Dec 1999
61.60
60.50
Jan 2000
60.50
Feb 2000
60.10
Mar 2000
57.00
Apr 2000
55.60
May 2000
Jun 2000
52.30
50.40
Jul 2000
50.60
Aug 2000
50.00
Sep 2000
47.80
Oct 2000
47.70
Nov 2000
Dec 2000
47.90
42.90
Jan 2001
38.20
Feb 2001
41.30
Percent
Mar 2001
42.70
Apr 2001
45.50
May 2001
45.70
Jun 2001
47.90
Jul 2001
Aug 2001
47.30
53.10
Sep 2001
49.00
Oct 2001
38.00
Nov 2001
48.40
Dec 2001
55.50
Jan 2002
Feb 2002
55.30
62.80
Mar 2002
65.30
Apr 2002
59.00
May 2002
63.10
Middle-right panel
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Average monthly change, thousands
Change
2000
137.83
2001:H1
2001:H2
-76.00
-239.33
2002:Q1
-87.67
Apr 2002
18.00
May 2002
27.00
Bottom-left panel
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
PCE
Jul 1997
5453.97
Aug 1997
Sep 1997
5464.91
5467.32
Oct 1997
5484.81
Nov 1997
5506.55
Dec 1997
5530.01
Jan 1998
5537.61
Feb 1998
Mar 1998
5582.23
5608.94
PCE
Apr 1998
5615.96
May 1998
5671.58
Jun 1998
5692.95
Jul 1998
5689.39
Aug 1998
Sep 1998
5711.91
5739.93
Oct 1998
5759.84
Nov 1998
5777.22
Dec 1998
5816.98
Jan 1999
5809.17
Feb 1999
Mar 1999
5853.38
5899.36
Apr 1999
5924.55
May 1999
5920.16
Jun 1999
5963.63
Jul 1999
5983.48
Aug 1999
Sep 1999
6005.16
6011.44
Oct 1999
6041.67
Nov 1999
6067.75
Dec 1999
6141.44
Jan 2000
6132.95
Feb 2000
6176.01
Mar 2000
6206.17
Apr 2000
6210.10
May 2000
6230.48
Jun 2000
6238.33
Jul 2000
6262.79
Aug 2000
Sep 2000
6286.88
6326.69
Oct 2000
6324.23
Nov 2000
6339.36
Dec 2000
6359.69
Jan 2001
6381.53
Feb 2001
Mar 2001
6383.62
6400.28
Apr 2001
6410.18
May 2001
6428.77
Jun 2001
6446.31
Jul 2001
6466.16
Aug 2001
Sep 2001
6471.93
6393.42
Oct 2001
6542.42
Nov 2001
6530.64
PCE
Dec 2001
6547.82
Jan 2002
6563.21
Feb 2002
6604.43
Mar 2002
6608.60
Apr 2002
May 2002
6621.82
6605.08
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
Quarterly average
Staff estimate
1997:Q1
5350.66
ND
1997:Q2
5375.68
ND
1997:Q3
5462.07
ND
1997:Q4
5507.13
ND
1998:Q1
1998:Q2
5576.26
5660.17
ND
ND
1998:Q3
5713.74
ND
1998:Q4
5784.68
ND
1999:Q1
5853.97
ND
1999:Q2
5936.11
ND
1999:Q3
1999:Q4
6000.03
6083.62
ND
ND
2000:Q1
6171.71
ND
2000:Q2
6226.30
ND
2000:Q3
6292.12
ND
2000:Q4
6341.09
ND
2001:Q1
2001:Q2
6388.47
6428.42
ND
ND
2001:Q3
6443.83
ND
2001:Q4
6540.29
ND
2002:Q1
6592.08
ND
2002:Q2
ND
6620.41
Bottom-right panel
Housing Starts
Millions of units, annual rate; Monthly
Single-family
Multifamily
Total
Jul 1997
Aug 1997
1.13
1.10
1.44
1.39
2.57
2.49
Sep 1997
1.21
1.55
2.75
Oct 1997
1.13
1.52
2.65
Nov 1997
1.15
1.51
2.66
Single-family
Multifamily
Total
Dec 1997
1.15
1.57
2.72
Jan 1998
1.23
1.53
2.75
Feb 1998
1.24
1.58
2.82
Mar 1998
1.22
1.57
2.79
Apr 1998
May 1998
1.23
1.21
1.54
1.54
2.77
2.75
Jun 1998
1.28
1.64
2.92
Jul 1998
1.30
1.70
3.00
Aug 1998
1.27
1.61
2.89
Sep 1998
1.26
1.58
2.84
Oct 1998
Nov 1998
1.30
1.38
1.72
1.66
3.01
3.04
Dec 1998
1.41
1.79
3.20
Jan 1999
1.35
1.75
3.10
Feb 1999
1.32
1.67
2.99
Mar 1999
1.35
1.71
3.06
Apr 1999
May 1999
1.22
1.31
1.55
1.61
2.77
2.92
Jun 1999
1.27
1.56
2.83
Jul 1999
1.31
1.67
2.98
Aug 1999
1.27
1.65
2.91
Sep 1999
1.29
1.64
2.92
Oct 1999
1.31
1.61
2.92
Nov 1999
1.32
1.65
2.97
Dec 1999
1.38
1.71
3.08
Jan 2000
1.27
1.64
2.90
Feb 2000
1.26
1.74
2.99
Mar 2000
1.31
1.60
2.92
Apr 2000
May 2000
1.28
1.23
1.63
1.58
2.90
2.81
Jun 2000
1.20
1.56
2.76
Jul 2000
1.14
1.46
2.61
Aug 2000
1.23
1.54
2.77
Sep 2000
1.20
1.51
2.70
Oct 2000
Nov 2000
1.24
1.21
1.55
1.55
2.78
2.76
Dec 2000
1.23
1.53
2.76
Jan 2001
1.31
1.63
2.93
Feb 2001
1.27
1.61
2.87
Mar 2001
1.22
1.60
2.82
Apr 2001
May 2001
1.30
1.28
1.64
1.60
2.94
2.89
Jun 2001
1.29
1.63
2.93
Jul 2001
1.29
1.66
2.96
Single-family
Multifamily
Total
Aug 2001
1.27
1.56
2.84
Sep 2001
1.26
1.58
2.85
Oct 2001
1.24
1.53
2.77
Nov 2001
1.24
1.60
2.85
Dec 2001
Jan 2002
1.29
1.34
1.58
1.71
2.88
3.06
Feb 2002
1.47
1.79
3.26
Mar 2002
1.30
1.68
2.97
Apr 2002
1.27
1.55
2.82
May 2002
1.39
1.73
3.12
Chart 3
The Policy Setting
Top-left panel
Estimated Equilibrium Real Federal Funds Rate
Top-right panel
The Federal Funds Rate
Percent
June
GB - Staff
Jan.
GB - Staff
2002:Q1
ND
1.75
2002:Q2
1.75
1.75
2002:Q3
1.75
1.75
2002:Q4
1.75
2.00
2003:Q1
1.90
2.25
2003:Q2
2.50
2.50
2003:Q3
2003:Q4
3.00
3.50
2.75
3.00
Percent
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
15-Jan-2002
ND
1.71
16-Jan-2002
ND
1.71
17-Jan-2002
18-Jan-2002
ND
ND
1.71
1.71
19-Jan-2002
ND
1.71
20-Jan-2002
ND
1.71
21-Jan-2002
ND
1.71
22-Jan-2002
ND
1.71
23-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
24-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
25-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
26-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
27-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
28-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
29-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
30-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
31-Jan-2002
ND
1.70
1-Feb-2002
ND
1.70
2-Feb-2002
ND
1.70
3-Feb-2002
ND
1.70
4-Feb-2002
ND
1.70
5-Feb-2002
ND
1.70
6-Feb-2002
ND
1.70
7-Feb-2002
8-Feb-2002
ND
ND
1.70
1.69
9-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
10-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
11-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
12-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
13-Feb-2002
14-Feb-2002
ND
ND
1.69
1.69
15-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
16-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
17-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
18-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
19-Feb-2002
20-Feb-2002
ND
ND
1.69
1.69
21-Feb-2002
ND
1.69
22-Feb-2002
ND
1.68
23-Feb-2002
ND
1.68
24-Feb-2002
ND
1.68
25-Feb-2002
26-Feb-2002
ND
ND
1.68
1.68
27-Feb-2002
ND
1.68
28-Feb-2002
ND
1.68
1-Mar-2002
ND
1.68
2-Mar-2002
ND
1.68
3-Mar-2002
4-Mar-2002
ND
ND
1.68
1.68
5-Mar-2002
ND
1.68
6-Mar-2002
ND
1.68
7-Mar-2002
ND
1.68
8-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
9-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
10-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
11-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
12-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
13-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
14-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
15-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
16-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
17-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
18-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
19-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
20-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
21-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
22-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
23-Mar-2002
24-Mar-2002
ND
ND
1.67
1.67
25-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
26-Mar-2002
ND
1.67
27-Mar-2002
ND
1.66
28-Mar-2002
ND
1.66
29-Mar-2002
30-Mar-2002
ND
ND
1.66
1.66
31-Mar-2002
ND
1.66
1-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
2-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
3-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
4-Apr-2002
5-Apr-2002
ND
ND
1.66
1.66
6-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
7-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
8-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
9-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
10-Apr-2002
11-Apr-2002
ND
ND
1.66
1.66
12-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
13-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
14-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
15-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
16-Apr-2002
17-Apr-2002
ND
ND
1.66
1.66
18-Apr-2002
ND
1.66
19-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
20-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
21-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
22-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
23-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
24-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
25-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
26-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
27-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
28-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
29-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
30-Apr-2002
ND
1.65
1-May-2002
ND
1.69
2-May-2002
ND
1.69
3-May-2002
ND
1.70
4-May-2002
ND
1.70
5-May-2002
ND
1.70
6-May-2002
7-May-2002
ND
ND
1.71
1.71
8-May-2002
ND
1.72
9-May-2002
ND
1.72
10-May-2002
ND
1.72
11-May-2002
ND
1.73
12-May-2002
13-May-2002
ND
ND
1.73
1.73
14-May-2002
ND
1.74
15-May-2002
ND
1.74
16-May-2002
ND
1.74
17-May-2002
ND
1.75
18-May-2002
19-May-2002
ND
ND
1.75
1.75
20-May-2002
ND
1.76
21-May-2002
ND
1.76
22-May-2002
ND
1.77
23-May-2002
ND
1.77
24-May-2002
25-May-2002
ND
ND
1.77
1.78
26-May-2002
ND
1.78
27-May-2002
ND
1.78
28-May-2002
ND
1.79
29-May-2002
ND
1.79
30-May-2002
31-May-2002
ND
ND
1.79
1.80
1-Jun-2002
ND
1.80
2-Jun-2002
ND
1.80
3-Jun-2002
ND
1.81
4-Jun-2002
ND
1.81
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
5-Jun-2002
ND
1.82
6-Jun-2002
ND
1.82
7-Jun-2002
ND
1.82
8-Jun-2002
ND
1.83
9-Jun-2002
ND
1.83
10-Jun-2002
ND
1.83
11-Jun-2002
ND
1.84
12-Jun-2002
ND
1.84
13-Jun-2002
ND
1.84
14-Jun-2002
ND
1.85
15-Jun-2002
ND
1.85
16-Jun-2002
ND
1.86
17-Jun-2002
1.76
1.86
18-Jun-2002
ND
1.86
19-Jun-2002
20-Jun-2002
ND
ND
1.87
1.87
21-Jun-2002
ND
1.87
22-Jun-2002
ND
1.88
23-Jun-2002
ND
1.88
24-Jun-2002
ND
1.88
25-Jun-2002
26-Jun-2002
ND
ND
1.89
1.89
27-Jun-2002
ND
1.89
28-Jun-2002
ND
1.90
29-Jun-2002
ND
1.90
30-Jun-2002
ND
1.91
1-Jul-2002
2-Jul-2002
ND
ND
1.91
1.91
3-Jul-2002
ND
1.92
4-Jul-2002
ND
1.92
5-Jul-2002
ND
1.92
6-Jul-2002
ND
1.93
7-Jul-2002
8-Jul-2002
ND
ND
1.93
1.93
9-Jul-2002
ND
1.94
10-Jul-2002
ND
1.94
11-Jul-2002
ND
1.94
12-Jul-2002
ND
1.95
13-Jul-2002
14-Jul-2002
0.58
0.58
1.95
1.96
15-Jul-2002
0.58
1.96
16-Jul-2002
ND
1.96
17-Jul-2002
ND
1.97
18-Jul-2002
ND
1.97
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
19-Jul-2002
ND
1.97
20-Jul-2002
ND
1.98
21-Jul-2002
ND
1.98
22-Jul-2002
ND
1.98
23-Jul-2002
ND
1.99
24-Jul-2002
ND
1.99
25-Jul-2002
ND
1.99
26-Jul-2002
ND
2.00
27-Jul-2002
ND
2.00
28-Jul-2002
ND
2.01
29-Jul-2002
ND
2.01
30-Jul-2002
ND
2.01
31-Jul-2002
ND
2.02
1-Aug-2002
ND
2.02
2-Aug-2002
3-Aug-2002
ND
ND
2.03
2.03
4-Aug-2002
ND
2.04
5-Aug-2002
ND
2.04
6-Aug-2002
ND
2.05
7-Aug-2002
ND
2.05
8-Aug-2002
9-Aug-2002
ND
ND
2.06
2.06
10-Aug-2002
ND
2.07
11-Aug-2002
ND
2.07
12-Aug-2002
ND
2.08
13-Aug-2002
ND
2.08
14-Aug-2002
15-Aug-2002
ND
1.75
2.09
2.09
16-Aug-2002
ND
2.10
17-Aug-2002
ND
2.10
18-Aug-2002
ND
2.11
19-Aug-2002
ND
2.11
20-Aug-2002
21-Aug-2002
ND
ND
2.12
2.12
22-Aug-2002
ND
2.13
23-Aug-2002
ND
2.13
24-Aug-2002
ND
2.14
25-Aug-2002
ND
2.15
26-Aug-2002
27-Aug-2002
ND
ND
2.15
2.16
28-Aug-2002
ND
2.16
29-Aug-2002
ND
2.17
30-Aug-2002
ND
2.17
31-Aug-2002
ND
2.18
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
1-Sep-2002
ND
2.18
2-Sep-2002
ND
2.19
3-Sep-2002
ND
2.19
4-Sep-2002
ND
2.20
5-Sep-2002
ND
2.20
6-Sep-2002
ND
2.21
7-Sep-2002
ND
2.21
8-Sep-2002
ND
2.22
9-Sep-2002
ND
2.22
10-Sep-2002
ND
2.23
11-Sep-2002
ND
2.23
12-Sep-2002
ND
2.24
13-Sep-2002
ND
2.24
14-Sep-2002
ND
2.25
15-Sep-2002
16-Sep-2002
ND
ND
2.25
2.26
17-Sep-2002
ND
2.27
18-Sep-2002
ND
2.27
19-Sep-2002
ND
2.28
20-Sep-2002
ND
2.28
21-Sep-2002
22-Sep-2002
ND
ND
2.29
2.29
23-Sep-2002
ND
2.30
24-Sep-2002
ND
2.30
25-Sep-2002
ND
2.31
26-Sep-2002
ND
2.31
27-Sep-2002
28-Sep-2002
ND
ND
2.32
2.32
29-Sep-2002
ND
2.33
30-Sep-2002
ND
2.33
1-Oct-2002
ND
2.34
2-Oct-2002
ND
2.34
3-Oct-2002
4-Oct-2002
ND
ND
2.35
2.35
5-Oct-2002
ND
2.36
6-Oct-2002
ND
2.36
7-Oct-2002
ND
2.37
8-Oct-2002
ND
2.37
9-Oct-2002
10-Oct-2002
ND
ND
2.38
2.39
11-Oct-2002
ND
2.39
12-Oct-2002
ND
2.40
13-Oct-2002
ND
2.40
14-Oct-2002
ND
2.41
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
15-Oct-2002
ND
2.41
16-Oct-2002
ND
2.42
17-Oct-2002
ND
2.42
18-Oct-2002
ND
2.43
19-Oct-2002
ND
2.43
20-Oct-2002
ND
2.44
21-Oct-2002
ND
2.44
22-Oct-2002
ND
2.45
23-Oct-2002
ND
2.45
24-Oct-2002
ND
2.46
25-Oct-2002
ND
2.46
26-Oct-2002
ND
2.47
27-Oct-2002
ND
2.47
28-Oct-2002
ND
2.48
29-Oct-2002
30-Oct-2002
ND
ND
2.48
2.49
31-Oct-2002
ND
2.49
1-Nov-2002
1.85
2.50
2-Nov-2002
ND
2.51
3-Nov-2002
ND
2.51
4-Nov-2002
5-Nov-2002
ND
ND
2.52
2.52
6-Nov-2002
ND
2.53
7-Nov-2002
ND
2.53
8-Nov-2002
ND
2.54
9-Nov-2002
ND
2.54
10-Nov-2002
11-Nov-2002
ND
ND
2.55
2.55
12-Nov-2002
ND
2.56
13-Nov-2002
ND
2.56
14-Nov-2002
ND
2.57
15-Nov-2002
ND
2.57
16-Nov-2002
17-Nov-2002
ND
ND
2.58
2.58
18-Nov-2002
ND
2.59
19-Nov-2002
ND
2.59
20-Nov-2002
ND
2.60
21-Nov-2002
ND
2.60
22-Nov-2002
23-Nov-2002
ND
ND
2.61
2.61
24-Nov-2002
ND
2.62
25-Nov-2002
ND
2.62
26-Nov-2002
ND
2.63
27-Nov-2002
ND
2.63
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
28-Nov-2002
ND
2.64
29-Nov-2002
ND
2.64
30-Nov-2002
ND
2.65
1-Dec-2002
ND
2.65
2-Dec-2002
ND
2.66
3-Dec-2002
ND
2.66
4-Dec-2002
ND
2.67
5-Dec-2002
ND
2.67
6-Dec-2002
ND
2.68
7-Dec-2002
ND
2.68
8-Dec-2002
ND
2.69
9-Dec-2002
ND
2.69
10-Dec-2002
ND
2.70
11-Dec-2002
ND
2.70
12-Dec-2002
13-Dec-2002
ND
ND
2.71
2.71
14-Dec-2002
ND
2.72
15-Dec-2002
ND
2.72
16-Dec-2002
ND
2.73
17-Dec-2002
ND
2.74
18-Dec-2002
19-Dec-2002
ND
ND
2.74
2.75
20-Dec-2002
ND
2.75
21-Dec-2002
ND
2.76
22-Dec-2002
ND
2.76
23-Dec-2002
ND
2.77
24-Dec-2002
25-Dec-2002
ND
ND
2.77
2.78
26-Dec-2002
ND
2.78
27-Dec-2002
ND
2.79
28-Dec-2002
ND
2.79
29-Dec-2002
ND
2.80
30-Dec-2002
31-Dec-2002
ND
ND
2.80
2.81
1-Jan-2003
ND
2.81
2-Jan-2003
ND
2.82
3-Jan-2003
ND
2.82
4-Jan-2003
ND
2.83
5-Jan-2003
6-Jan-2003
ND
ND
2.83
2.84
7-Jan-2003
ND
2.84
8-Jan-2003
ND
2.85
9-Jan-2003
ND
2.85
10-Jan-2003
ND
2.86
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
11-Jan-2003
ND
2.86
12-Jan-2003
ND
2.87
13-Jan-2003
ND
2.87
14-Jan-2003
ND
2.88
15-Jan-2003
ND
2.88
16-Jan-2003
ND
2.89
17-Jan-2003
ND
2.89
18-Jan-2003
ND
2.90
19-Jan-2003
ND
2.90
20-Jan-2003
ND
2.91
21-Jan-2003
ND
2.91
22-Jan-2003
ND
2.92
23-Jan-2003
ND
2.92
24-Jan-2003
ND
2.93
25-Jan-2003
26-Jan-2003
ND
ND
2.93
2.94
27-Jan-2003
ND
2.94
28-Jan-2003
ND
2.95
29-Jan-2003
ND
2.95
30-Jan-2003
ND
2.96
31-Jan-2003
1-Feb-2003
ND
0.70
2.97
2.97
2-Feb-2003
0.70
2.98
3-Feb-2003
0.70
2.99
4-Feb-2003
ND
2.99
5-Feb-2003
ND
3.00
6-Feb-2003
7-Feb-2003
ND
ND
3.01
3.02
8-Feb-2003
ND
3.02
9-Feb-2003
ND
3.03
10-Feb-2003
ND
3.04
11-Feb-2003
ND
3.05
12-Feb-2003
13-Feb-2003
ND
ND
3.05
3.06
14-Feb-2003
ND
3.07
15-Feb-2003
ND
3.08
16-Feb-2003
ND
3.08
17-Feb-2003
ND
3.09
18-Feb-2003
19-Feb-2003
ND
ND
3.10
3.11
20-Feb-2003
ND
3.11
21-Feb-2003
ND
3.12
22-Feb-2003
ND
3.13
23-Feb-2003
ND
3.14
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
24-Feb-2003
ND
3.14
25-Feb-2003
ND
3.15
26-Feb-2003
ND
3.16
27-Feb-2003
ND
3.17
28-Feb-2003
ND
3.17
1-Mar-2003
ND
3.18
2-Mar-2003
ND
3.19
3-Mar-2003
ND
3.20
4-Mar-2003
ND
3.20
5-Mar-2003
ND
3.21
6-Mar-2003
ND
3.22
7-Mar-2003
ND
3.23
8-Mar-2003
ND
3.23
9-Mar-2003
ND
3.24
10-Mar-2003
11-Mar-2003
ND
ND
3.25
3.26
12-Mar-2003
ND
3.26
13-Mar-2003
ND
3.27
14-Mar-2003
ND
3.28
15-Mar-2003
ND
3.29
16-Mar-2003
17-Mar-2003
ND
ND
3.29
3.30
18-Mar-2003
ND
3.31
19-Mar-2003
ND
3.32
20-Mar-2003
ND
3.32
21-Mar-2003
ND
3.33
22-Mar-2003
23-Mar-2003
ND
ND
3.34
3.35
24-Mar-2003
ND
3.35
25-Mar-2003
ND
3.36
26-Mar-2003
ND
3.37
27-Mar-2003
ND
3.38
28-Mar-2003
29-Mar-2003
ND
ND
3.38
3.39
30-Mar-2003
ND
3.40
31-Mar-2003
ND
3.41
1-Apr-2003
ND
3.41
2-Apr-2003
ND
3.42
3-Apr-2003
4-Apr-2003
ND
ND
3.43
3.44
5-Apr-2003
ND
3.44
6-Apr-2003
ND
3.45
7-Apr-2003
ND
3.46
8-Apr-2003
ND
3.47
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
9-Apr-2003
ND
3.47
10-Apr-2003
ND
3.48
11-Apr-2003
ND
3.49
12-Apr-2003
ND
3.50
13-Apr-2003
ND
3.50
14-Apr-2003
ND
3.51
15-Apr-2003
ND
3.52
16-Apr-2003
ND
3.53
17-Apr-2003
ND
3.53
18-Apr-2003
ND
3.54
19-Apr-2003
ND
3.55
20-Apr-2003
ND
3.56
21-Apr-2003
ND
3.56
22-Apr-2003
ND
3.57
23-Apr-2003
24-Apr-2003
ND
ND
3.58
3.59
25-Apr-2003
ND
3.59
26-Apr-2003
ND
3.60
27-Apr-2003
ND
3.61
28-Apr-2003
ND
3.62
29-Apr-2003
30-Apr-2003
ND
ND
3.62
3.63
1-May-2003
2.67
3.64
2-May-2003
ND
3.65
3-May-2003
ND
3.65
4-May-2003
ND
3.66
5-May-2003
6-May-2003
ND
ND
3.66
3.67
7-May-2003
ND
3.67
8-May-2003
ND
3.68
9-May-2003
ND
3.69
10-May-2003
ND
3.69
11-May-2003
12-May-2003
ND
ND
3.70
3.70
13-May-2003
ND
3.71
14-May-2003
ND
3.71
15-May-2003
ND
3.72
16-May-2003
ND
3.73
17-May-2003
18-May-2003
ND
ND
3.73
3.74
19-May-2003
ND
3.74
20-May-2003
ND
3.75
21-May-2003
ND
3.76
22-May-2003
ND
3.76
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
23-May-2003
ND
3.77
24-May-2003
ND
3.77
25-May-2003
ND
3.78
26-May-2003
ND
3.78
27-May-2003
ND
3.79
28-May-2003
ND
3.80
29-May-2003
ND
3.80
30-May-2003
ND
3.81
31-May-2003
ND
3.81
1-Jun-2003
ND
3.82
2-Jun-2003
ND
3.82
3-Jun-2003
ND
3.83
4-Jun-2003
ND
3.84
5-Jun-2003
ND
3.84
6-Jun-2003
7-Jun-2003
ND
ND
3.85
3.85
8-Jun-2003
ND
3.86
9-Jun-2003
ND
3.86
10-Jun-2003
ND
3.87
11-Jun-2003
ND
3.88
12-Jun-2003
13-Jun-2003
ND
ND
3.88
3.89
14-Jun-2003
ND
3.89
15-Jun-2003
ND
3.90
16-Jun-2003
ND
3.91
17-Jun-2003
ND
3.91
18-Jun-2003
19-Jun-2003
ND
ND
3.92
3.92
20-Jun-2003
ND
3.93
21-Jun-2003
ND
3.93
22-Jun-2003
ND
3.94
23-Jun-2003
ND
3.95
24-Jun-2003
25-Jun-2003
ND
ND
3.95
3.96
26-Jun-2003
ND
3.96
27-Jun-2003
ND
3.97
28-Jun-2003
ND
3.97
29-Jun-2003
ND
3.98
30-Jun-2003
1-Jul-2003
ND
ND
3.99
3.99
2-Jul-2003
ND
4.00
3-Jul-2003
ND
4.00
4-Jul-2003
ND
4.01
5-Jul-2003
ND
4.01
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
6-Jul-2003
ND
4.02
7-Jul-2003
ND
4.03
8-Jul-2003
ND
4.03
9-Jul-2003
ND
4.04
10-Jul-2003
ND
4.04
11-Jul-2003
ND
4.05
12-Jul-2003
ND
4.05
13-Jul-2003
ND
4.06
14-Jul-2003
ND
4.07
15-Jul-2003
ND
4.07
16-Jul-2003
ND
4.08
17-Jul-2003
ND
4.08
18-Jul-2003
ND
4.09
19-Jul-2003
ND
4.10
20-Jul-2003
21-Jul-2003
ND
ND
4.10
4.11
22-Jul-2003
ND
4.11
23-Jul-2003
ND
4.12
24-Jul-2003
ND
4.12
25-Jul-2003
ND
4.13
26-Jul-2003
27-Jul-2003
ND
ND
4.14
4.14
28-Jul-2003
ND
4.15
29-Jul-2003
ND
4.15
30-Jul-2003
ND
4.16
31-Jul-2003
ND
4.16
1-Aug-2003
2-Aug-2003
3.23
ND
4.17
4.17
3-Aug-2003
ND
4.18
4-Aug-2003
ND
4.18
5-Aug-2003
ND
4.19
6-Aug-2003
ND
4.19
7-Aug-2003
8-Aug-2003
ND
ND
4.20
4.20
9-Aug-2003
ND
4.20
10-Aug-2003
ND
4.21
11-Aug-2003
ND
4.21
12-Aug-2003
ND
4.22
13-Aug-2003
14-Aug-2003
ND
ND
4.22
4.23
15-Aug-2003
ND
4.23
16-Aug-2003
ND
4.23
17-Aug-2003
ND
4.24
18-Aug-2003
ND
4.24
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
19-Aug-2003
ND
4.25
20-Aug-2003
ND
4.25
21-Aug-2003
ND
4.25
22-Aug-2003
ND
4.26
23-Aug-2003
ND
4.26
24-Aug-2003
ND
4.27
25-Aug-2003
ND
4.27
26-Aug-2003
ND
4.28
27-Aug-2003
ND
4.28
28-Aug-2003
ND
4.28
29-Aug-2003
ND
4.29
30-Aug-2003
ND
4.29
31-Aug-2003
ND
4.30
1-Sep-2003
ND
4.30
2-Sep-2003
3-Sep-2003
ND
ND
4.31
4.31
4-Sep-2003
ND
4.31
5-Sep-2003
ND
4.32
6-Sep-2003
ND
4.32
7-Sep-2003
ND
4.33
8-Sep-2003
9-Sep-2003
ND
ND
4.33
4.34
10-Sep-2003
ND
4.34
11-Sep-2003
ND
4.34
12-Sep-2003
ND
4.35
13-Sep-2003
ND
4.35
14-Sep-2003
15-Sep-2003
ND
ND
4.36
4.36
16-Sep-2003
ND
4.36
17-Sep-2003
ND
4.37
18-Sep-2003
ND
4.37
19-Sep-2003
ND
4.38
20-Sep-2003
21-Sep-2003
ND
ND
4.38
4.39
22-Sep-2003
ND
4.39
23-Sep-2003
ND
4.39
24-Sep-2003
ND
4.40
25-Sep-2003
ND
4.40
26-Sep-2003
27-Sep-2003
ND
ND
4.41
4.41
28-Sep-2003
ND
4.42
29-Sep-2003
ND
4.42
30-Sep-2003
ND
4.42
1-Oct-2003
ND
4.43
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
2-Oct-2003
ND
4.43
3-Oct-2003
ND
4.44
4-Oct-2003
ND
4.44
5-Oct-2003
ND
4.45
6-Oct-2003
ND
4.45
7-Oct-2003
ND
4.45
8-Oct-2003
ND
4.46
9-Oct-2003
ND
4.46
10-Oct-2003
ND
4.47
11-Oct-2003
ND
4.47
12-Oct-2003
ND
4.48
13-Oct-2003
ND
4.48
14-Oct-2003
ND
4.48
15-Oct-2003
ND
4.49
16-Oct-2003
17-Oct-2003
ND
ND
4.49
4.50
18-Oct-2003
ND
4.50
19-Oct-2003
ND
4.50
20-Oct-2003
ND
4.51
21-Oct-2003
ND
4.51
22-Oct-2003
23-Oct-2003
ND
ND
4.52
4.52
24-Oct-2003
ND
4.53
25-Oct-2003
ND
4.53
26-Oct-2003
ND
4.53
27-Oct-2003
ND
4.54
28-Oct-2003
29-Oct-2003
ND
ND
4.54
4.55
30-Oct-2003
ND
4.55
31-Oct-2003
ND
4.56
1-Nov-2003
1.23
4.56
2-Nov-2003
1.23
4.56
3-Nov-2003
4-Nov-2003
1.23
ND
4.57
4.57
5-Nov-2003
ND
4.57
6-Nov-2003
ND
4.57
7-Nov-2003
ND
4.58
8-Nov-2003
ND
4.58
9-Nov-2003
10-Nov-2003
ND
ND
4.58
4.58
11-Nov-2003
ND
4.59
12-Nov-2003
ND
4.59
13-Nov-2003
ND
4.59
14-Nov-2003
ND
4.59
Day of June GB Day of Jan. GB
- Market
- Market
15-Nov-2003
ND
4.60
16-Nov-2003
ND
4.60
17-Nov-2003
ND
4.60
18-Nov-2003
ND
4.60
19-Nov-2003
ND
4.61
20-Nov-2003
ND
4.61
21-Nov-2003
ND
4.61
22-Nov-2003
ND
4.61
23-Nov-2003
ND
4.62
24-Nov-2003
ND
4.62
25-Nov-2003
ND
4.62
26-Nov-2003
ND
4.62
27-Nov-2003
ND
4.63
28-Nov-2003
ND
4.63
29-Nov-2003
30-Nov-2003
ND
ND
4.63
4.63
1-Dec-2003
ND
4.64
2-Dec-2003
ND
4.64
3-Dec-2003
ND
4.64
4-Dec-2003
ND
4.64
5-Dec-2003
6-Dec-2003
ND
ND
4.65
4.65
7-Dec-2003
ND
4.65
8-Dec-2003
ND
4.65
9-Dec-2003
ND
4.66
10-Dec-2003
ND
4.66
11-Dec-2003
12-Dec-2003
ND
ND
4.66
4.66
13-Dec-2003
ND
4.67
14-Dec-2003
ND
4.67
15-Dec-2003
ND
4.67
16-Dec-2003
ND
4.67
Middle-left panel
Wilshire 5000
Index; Quarterly
Wilshire 5000
June GB
1998:Q1
1998:Q2
9714.90
10529.21
ND
ND
1998:Q3
10033.62
ND
1998:Q4
10231.39
ND
1999:Q1
11499.40
ND
Wilshire 5000
June GB
1999:Q2
12145.75
ND
1999:Q3
12315.33
ND
1999:Q4
12756.19
ND
2000:Q1
13740.99
ND
2000:Q2
2000:Q3
13373.21
13843.37
ND
ND
2000:Q4
12607.99
ND
2001:Q1
11649.39
ND
2001:Q2
11415.97
ND
2001:Q3
10600.34
ND
2001:Q4
2002:Q1
10349.82
10604.51
ND
10575.00
2002:Q2
10150.00
10150.00
2002:Q3
ND
9700.00
2002:Q4
ND
9700.00
2003:Q1
ND
9850.00
2003:Q2
2003:Q3
ND
ND
10050.00
10250.00
2003:Q4
ND
10400.00
Middle-right panel
Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar
Index, 1996=100
Broad;
quarterly
June GB
1998:Q1
114.15
ND
1998:Q2
1998:Q3
114.01
116.80
ND
ND
1998:Q4
112.42
ND
1999:Q1
113.30
ND
1999:Q2
114.16
ND
1999:Q3
113.67
ND
1999:Q4
2000:Q1
112.82
114.00
ND
ND
2000:Q2
116.64
ND
2000:Q3
117.88
ND
2000:Q4
120.96
ND
2001:Q1
122.52
ND
2001:Q2
2001:Q3
124.97
124.40
ND
ND
2001:Q4
125.12
ND
2002:Q1
127.15
ND
2002:Q2
125.42
125.42
Broad;
quarterly
June GB
2002:Q3
ND
123.98
2002:Q4
ND
123.33
2003:Q1
ND
122.80
2003:Q2
ND
122.38
2003:Q3
ND
121.96
2003:Q4
ND
121.56
Bottom-left panel
Fiscal Impetus
Percent of GDP; Annual
Fiscal impetus
Forecast
1970
0.02
ND
1971
-0.25
ND
1972
1.00
ND
1973
-0.61
ND
1974
-0.06
ND
1975
0.75
ND
1976
0.19
ND
1977
0.22
ND
1978
0.44
ND
1979
0.08
ND
1980
0.07
ND
1981
-0.46
ND
1982
0.85
ND
1983
1.03
ND
1984
1985
0.39
0.41
ND
ND
1986
0.06
ND
1987
0.27
ND
1988
-0.13
ND
1989
-0.31
ND
1990
1991
-0.25
-0.49
ND
ND
1992
-0.28
ND
1993
-0.36
ND
1994
-0.46
ND
1995
-0.38
ND
1996
1997
-0.17
-0.06
ND
ND
1998
-0.01
ND
1999
0.29
ND
2000
0.10
ND
Fiscal impetus
Forecast
2001
0.43
0.43
2002
ND
1.22
2003
ND
0.62
Note: As shown in the chart, shaded bars denote the recession periods of 1969:Q4-1970:Q4, 1973:Q4-1975:Q1,
1980:Q1-1980:Q3, 1981:Q3-1982:Q4, and 1990:Q3-1991:Q1, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER), and a vertical line indicates the NBER peak in March 2001 for the recession beginning in 2001:Q1.
Bottom-right panel
Unified Budget Surplus
(Billions of dollars)
Fiscal year
Unified Budget Surplus
2000
236
2001
127
2002
-154
2003
-127
Chart 4
Financial Conditions: Corporate Sector
Top-left panel
Corporate Bond Default Rate
Corporate Bond Default Rate. The period covered is from 1990 through May 2002. The data are
percentage values showing the twelve-month moving average. A shaded bar denotes the recession
period of 1990-1991, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a
vertical line indicates the NBER peak for the recession beginning in 2001:Q1. The series begins in
1990 at just above 1 percent. It enters the recession (1990:Q3-1991:Q1) at about 1.5 percent and
exits the recession at about 2.5 percent. The series then decreases rapidly, falling to just above 0
percent at the start of 1993. The series fluctuates between just above 0 percent and just below 1
percent between 1993 and the start of 1999, when it begins rising. The series reaches 1 percent at the
start of 2000 and rises to just above 1 percent as it enters the NBER recession peak of 2001:Q1. It
then rises sharply to about 3 percent in May 2002.
Source. Moody's.
Top-right panel
Real Debt Growth, Nonfinancial Corporations
Real Debt Growth, Nonfinancial Corporations.* The period covered is from 1970 through 2002:Q1.
The data are percentage values showing the four-quarter percent change. A horizontal line is drawn
at 0 percent. Five shaded bars denote the recession periods of 1969-1970, 1973-1975, 1980,
1981-1982, and 1990-1991, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a
vertical line indicates the NBER peak for the recession beginning in 2001:Q1. The series begins at
about 6 percent in 1970:Q1, during the first recession (1969:Q4-1970:Q4), and exits the recession at
about 5 percent. The series increases to enter the second recession (1973:Q4-1975:Q1) at about 10
percent; it then declines sharply to exit the recession at about negative 2 percent. The series increases
to enter the third recession (1980:Q1-1980:Q3) at about 6 percent and then decreases to exit the
recession at about 0 percent. Next, the series increases to enter the fourth recession
(1981:Q3-1982:Q4) at about 5 percent and remains at about that level throughout the recession. The
series then begins to increase, hitting a peak of about 13 percent at the start of 1985 before gradually
declining to about 0 percent at the start of the fifth recession (1990:Q3-1991:Q1). The series further
declines before exiting the recession at about negative 5 percent. It rises to just above 10 percent in
1999, decreases to about 7 percent at the NBER peak in 2001:Q1, and further declines to about 4
percent in 2002:Q1.
*Growth of nominal debt less growth of the GDP chain-weight price index. Return to text
Middle-left panel
Interest Expense as a Share of Cash Flow, Speculative-grade Nonfinancial Firms
Interest Expense as a Share of Cash Flow, Speculative-grade Nonfinancial Firms. The period covered
is from 1988 through 2002:Q1, and the data are percentage values that are annual for 1988-1997 and
four-quarter moving averages thereafter. Data are plotted as two curves: The first is the 75th
percentile, and the second is the median value. A shaded bar denotes the recession period of
1990-1991, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a vertical line
indicates the NBER peak for the recession beginning in 2001:Q1. The two series follow similar paths
between 1988 and 2000: The 75th percentile curve fluctuates around 75 percent, and the median
curve fluctuates around 50 percent. In 2000, the 75th percentile curve rises sharply and continues
rising through the 2001:Q1 NBER recession peak. Conversely, in 2000, the median curve levels off
and begins a gradual decline in 2001:Q1.
More specifically, the 75th percentile curve begins at about 75 percent in 1988, rises to about 85
percent as it enters the 1990:Q3-1991:Q1 recession, and exits the recession at about 80 percent. The
series then gradually declines, reaching a low point of about 60 percent at the start of 1998. It
increases sharply, reaching about 80 percent at the 2001:Q1 NBER peak, and further increases to
about 85 percent before dropping to about 80 percent in 2002:Q1. The median series begins at just
below 50 percent in 1988, rises to about 60 percent as it enters the 1990:Q3-1991:Q1 recession, and
exits the recession at about 55 percent. The series then gradually declines, reaching a low of about 40
percent at the start of 1998. It gradually increases, reaching just below 50 percent at the 2001:Q1
NBER peak, and then decreases to reach about 45 percent in 2002:Q1.
Source. Compustat.
Middle-right panel
Liquid Assets Relative to Short-Term Liabilities, Nonfinancial Corporations
Liquid Assets Relative to Short-Term Liabilities, Nonfinancial Corporations. The period covered is
from 1970 through 2002:Q1, and the data are quarterly percentage values. Five shaded bars denote
the recession periods of 1969-1970, 1973-1975, 1980, 1981-1982, and 1990-1991, as defined by the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a vertical line indicates the NBER peak for the
recession beginning in 2001:Q1. The series begins at about 24 percent in 1970:Q1, in the midst of
the first recession (1969:Q4-1970:Q4), and exits the recession at about 23 percent. The series
fluctuates slightly, enters the second recession (1973:Q4-1975:Q1) at about 23 percent, and exits the
recession at about 28 percent. It increases sharply, reaching about 32 percent at the start of 1976, and
then begins to decline steadily at the start of 1977, entering the third recession (1980:Q1-1980:Q3) at
about 24 percent, where it stays throughout the recession. It decreases as it enters the fourth recession
(1981:Q3-1982:Q4) at about 21 percent; it dips and then increases to exit the recession at about 22
percent. Next, the series begins to increase, reaching about 28 percent at the start of 1984 before
gradually declining to about 20 percent at the start of the fifth recession (1990:Q3-1991:Q1). It
increases to exit the recession at about 24 percent, gradually rises to enter the NBER peak in
2001:Q1 at about 31 percent, and continues to increase, to nearly 40 percent in 2002:Q1.
Bottom-left panel
Growth of Profits and Output
Growth of Profits and Output. The period covered is the thirty-four years from 1970 through 2003,
and the data are average annual percent changes presented as a scatter plot. Each of the thirty-four
dots in the chart shows, for a given year, the intersection of the average percent change in output
(shown on the horizontal, or x, axis, which extends from negative 4 percent to positive 10 percent)
with the average percent change in profits (shown on the vertical, or y, axis, which extends from
negative 20 percent to positive 40 percent). Profits are measured as economic profits, and output is
measured as nonfarm business GDP, less housing. A horizontal line is drawn at 0 percent change in
profits, and a vertical line is drawn at 0 percent change in output. A trendline, representing the
historical relationship between the two variables for the 1970-2003 period, extends from lower left to
upper right through the following three x-y coordinates: beginning at the lower left at negative 4,
negative 10; to the intersection of the horizontal and vertical lines at about 0, 0; and ending at the
upper right at positive 10, positive 23. The annual change in profits ranges from about negative 15
percent to just under 30 percent, and the yearly change in output ranges from almost negative 4
percent to about 8 percent. The only data points identified by year are those for 2002 and 2003.
Compared with the historical relationship between output and profits, the 2002 data point was above
the trendline, and the 2003 data point was below the trendline, but both were well within the range of
historical variation. In 2002, profits grew about 15 percent, and output grew slightly less than 3
percent. In 2003, profit growth edged down to about 5 percent, and output growth increased to
almost 5 percent.
Bottom-right panel
Analysts' Forecasts of Growth in S&P 500
Earnings Per Share*
Percent
Forecast
Bias Adjusted
2003
19.6
9 to 14
Long-term growth
12.6
7-1/2 to 9
*As of June 21, 2002. Return to table
Chart 5
Financial Conditions: Household and Banking Sectors
Top-left panel
Household Debt Service Burden
Household Debt Service Burden.* The period covered is from 1980 through 2002:Q2, and the data
are percentage values. Three shaded bars denote the recession periods of 1980, 1981-1982, and
1990-1991, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a vertical line
indicates the NBER peak for the recession beginning in 2001:Q1. The series begins at just above 13
percent at the start of the first recession (1980:Q1-1980:Q3) and stays at that value throughout the
recession. It then decreases as it enters the second recession (1981:Q3-1982:Q4) at about 12.5
percent; it fluctuates throughout the recession and exits at about 12.5 percent. After a brief dip, the
series begins to increase, reaching about 14.25 percent at the start of 1987 before declining to about
13.25 percent at the start of the third recession (1990:Q3-1991:Q1). The series decreases, exiting the
recession at about 13 percent, and it continues to drop, dipping to just below 12 percent at the start of
1993, where it stays until it begins to increase again in mid-1994. It rises steadily and enters the
NBER peak in 2001:Q1 at just above 14 percent. It fluctuates a bit and is estimated to be just above
14 percent in 2002:Q2.
*Required debt payments relative to disposable personal income. Return to text
Top-right panel
Household Delinquency Rates
Household Delinquency Rates. The data are percentage values represented as three curves. The first
curve is nonprime auto loans, and it covers the period from 1998 through March 2002. The second
curve is household loans at commercial banks, and it covers the period from 1991 through 2002:Q1.
The third curve is auto loans at finance companies, and it covers the period from 1990 through April
2002. Broadly, the household loans at commercial banks series and the auto loans at finance
companies series have similar curve patterns, each fluctuating between about 2 percent and about 4
percent over the course of each series. The nonprime auto loans series follows a similar pattern as the
other two series between 1997 and the start of 2001, although it fluctuates between about 5 percent
and about 6.5 percent. In contrast to the other two series, in 2001 it begins a sharp increase, reaching
nearly 9 percent in 2002:Q1.
Specifically, the nonprime auto loans series begins in 1998 at about 5 percent and then fluctuates
between 5 percent and 6 percent until the beginning of 2001, when it starts to increase, reaching
almost 9 percent in March 2002. The household loans at commercial banks series begins in 1991 at
just below 4 percent, gradually declines to just above 2 percent at the start of 1995, fluctuates
between 2 percent and 3 percent between 1995 and the end of 2001, and is just below 3 percent in
2002:Q1. The auto loans at finance companies series begins in 1990 at just above 2 percent,
fluctuates between about 2 percent and about 3 percent from 1990 through early 1995, rises to almost
4 percent in mid-1997, and gradually decreases to about 2 percent in April 2002.
Notes. For household loans at commercial banks, data on consumer loans and residential real estate loans were from Call
Report. Nonprime auto loans are staff calculations using Moody's data.
Middle-left panel
Household Assets and Liabilities Relative to Disposable Income
Household Assets and Liabilities Relative to Disposable Income. The period covered is from 1990
through 2003. Data are quarterly. Data are given as a ratio and are presented as two curves: The first
curve shows the ratio of assets to disposable income, and the second shows liabilities relative to
disposable income. The assets curve is generally flat between 1990 and 1995, rises from 1995
through 2000, and then decreases through the projected 2003 value. In contrast, the liabilities curve
remains generally flat throughout the entire period, rising just slightly beginning in 1995.
More specifically, the assets series starts at a ratio of just below 6 at the beginning of 1990 and
remains at about that level until 1995. In 1995, the ratio begins to rise, reaching about 6.5 in 1998
and hitting a peak of just above 7 at the start of 2000. The series then starts to decrease, reaching
about 6.5 at the start of 2002, and it is projected to be about 6 at the end of 2003. The liabilities series
begins with a ratio of just below 1 in 1990 and stays at that level through 1995. It gradually rises to
reach about 1 in 1999 and continues its slight increase to just above 1 at the start of 2002. The series
is projected to remain at just above 1 through the end of 2003.
Middle-right panel
Real House Prices
Real House Prices.* The period covered is from 1976 through 2003, and the data are the four-quarter
percent change. A horizontal line is drawn at 0 percent. Three shaded bars denote the recession
periods of 1980, 1981-1982, and 1990-1991, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER), and a vertical line indicates the NBER peak for the recession beginning in
2001:Q1. The series begins at just above negative 2 percent in 1976 and increases sharply to about 7
percent in 1979. It decreases to about 5 percent at the start of the first recession (1980:Q1-1980:Q3)
and drops sharply to exit the recession at about 0 percent. The series continues its decline, reaching
about negative 2 percent at the start of the second recession (1981:Q3-1982:Q4) and exiting the
recession at about negative 4 percent. The series begins to rise, reaching about 4 percent at the start
of 1987 before decreasing again, entering the third recession (1990:Q3-1991:Q1) at about 0 percent
and then dropping sharply to exit the recession at about negative 4 percent. It fluctuates and
gradually increases to enter the NBER peak in 2001:Q1 at just below 8 percent and then drops
sharply to just over 4 percent at mid-2002. Projections show it reaching just above 2 percent at the
start of 2004.
*OFHEO repeat sales index deflated by core PCE chain-weight price index. Return to text
Bottom-left panel
Real House Prices and Income, Coastal Cities
Real House Prices and Income, Coastal Cities.* The period covered is from 1977 through 2001. Data
are given as an annual index, with 1994 equal to 100, and are presented as two curves: The first is
real house prices, and the second is real per-capita income. Both series follow similar curves between
1977 and the start of 1986, with each increasing at a gradual rate. At the start of 1986, the real house
prices index rises sharply until 1989, after which it starts to decline until 1997. In 1997, the index
starts to rise again and continues increasing through 2001. In contrast, the real per-capita income
series stays on a generally steady upward path for the time period shown.
More specifically, in 1977, the real house prices index is at just above 63. The index rises to about 76
in 1980, dips slightly, and then increases to about 120 in 1989. It then starts to decrease, dropping to
about 95 in 1997, before rising again, to reach about 132 in 2001. The real per-capita income index is
at about 74 in 1997, reaches just above 76 in 1980, and continues rising to about 100 in 1989. It
fluctuates between 100 and 102 from 1989 through 1996, and it then rises, reaching about 127 in
2001.
*Includes Seattle, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and
Washington, D.C. Return to text
Bottom-right panel
Health of the Banking Sector
Health of the Banking Sector. The period covered is from 1990 through 2002:Q1, and the data are
percentage values. Data are presented as two curves: One is return on assets and is given as a
quarterly value, and the other is the share of assets at well-capitalized banks. The curves are
presented together but follow different percentage scales. Both series have similar curve patterns,
generally rising between 1990 and 1994. In 1994, the return on assets series generally levels out,
whereas the share of assets series continues to rise until mid-1995, after which it also levels out.
More specifically, the return on assets series begins at just below 0.5 percent at the start of 1990. It
drops to about 0.25 percent in 1991 and then rises, reaching about 1.25 percent in 1994. The series
then generally levels out, fluctuating between about 1 percent and nearly 1.5 percent between 1994
and 2002:Q1. The share of assets at well-capitalized banks series starts at about 30 percent in 1990
and rises slightly to about 35 percent in 1991. It then starts to rise sharply, reaching about 95 percent
in mid-1995; the series then levels out, remaining between about 95 percent and just below 100
percent through 2002:Q1.
Chart 6
Business Investment
Top-left panel
Real Business Fixed Investment
(Percent change, annual rate)
2002
Q1
Q2
2003
H2
1. Total BFI
-8
1
5
11
2.
E&S
-2
4
8
13
3.
NRS
-23
-7
-2
4
Top-right panel
Semiconductors and Computers
Index, Jan. 2000 = 100; Monthly
Semiconductor production
Real computer shipments
Jan 2000
100.00
100.00
Feb 2000
104.74
93.78
Mar 2000
Apr 2000
111.84
117.77
94.85
103.36
May 2000
123.15
103.90
Jun 2000
126.76
104.71
Jul 2000
129.41
106.92
Aug 2000
130.55
105.20
Sep 2000
Oct 2000
131.61
132.69
108.06
108.45
Nov 2000
134.32
105.15
Dec 2000
135.05
109.49
Jan 2001
130.08
110.12
Feb 2001
128.41
106.31
Mar 2001
Apr 2001
126.17
121.01
110.56
105.14
May 2001
117.82
104.47
Jun 2001
113.23
99.13
Jul 2001
109.85
102.08
Aug 2001
109.55
87.60
Sep 2001
Oct 2001
111.28
113.46
93.70
98.97
Nov 2001
113.65
103.27
Semiconductor production
Real computer shipments
Dec 2001
114.91
105.52
Jan 2002
119.92
108.06
Feb 2002
125.06
105.61
Mar 2002
127.22
103.14
Apr 2002
May 2002
129.28
132.19
109.43
ND
Middle-left panel
Revisions to Year-Ahead Earnings for S&P 500
Revisions to Year-Ahead Earnings for S&P 500. The period covered is from 1999 through June
2002, and the data are percentage values given as a three-month moving average. Data are presented
as two curves: One is telecom service, and the second curve is "all other." A horizontal line is drawn
at 0 percent. The two series have similar curve patterns throughout 1999 but diverge in early 2000,
with telecom service decreasing sharply and "all other" increasing slightly, then dropping gradually.
Both series come together again in mid-2001 and have similar curve fluctuations through June 2002.
More specifically, telecom service enters 1999 at just above 0 percent and then dips to just below 0
percent, where it remains through 1999. In early 2000, the series decreases to about negative 3
percent, increases slightly, and then drops sharply to reach about negative 8 percent at the start of
2001. It then rises again, reaching negative 2 percent in late 2001 and ending just below negative 2
percent in June 2002. The "all other" series enters 1999 at about negative 1 percent, rises slightly to
about 0 percent through the remainder of 1999, and then increases to just above 0 percent in
mid-2000 before dropping to about negative 3 percent in mid-2001. The series drops a bit to about
negative 4 percent at the end of 2001, increases to about 0 percent in early 2002, and then drops to
negative 1 percent in June 2002.
Middle-right panel
Accelerator Effects
Four-quarter percent change in real E&S
Accelerator*
Percent Change in
E&S
Recent percent
change
Trend E&S
1971
-2.99
-5.45
ND
0.56
1972
1.88
8.54
ND
11.04
1973
1974
4.74
-0.36
16.87
13.58
ND
ND
17.19
6.22
1975
-6.06
-3.04
ND
-6.04
1976
-1.11
-6.18
ND
4.60
1977
4.47
9.23
ND
16.61
1978
1.74
16.35
ND
10.74
1979
1980
1.25
-2.64
14.94
3.42
ND
ND
9.68
1.31
1981
-4.47
-3.55
ND
-2.62
1982
-0.30
5.13
ND
6.35
1983
-0.82
-9.10
ND
5.23
Accelerator*
Percent Change in
E&S
Recent percent
change
Trend E&S
1984
5.38
20.69
ND
18.57
1985
4.07
13.84
ND
15.75
1986
-3.45
2.54
ND
-0.43
1987
-1.13
1.60
ND
4.56
1988
0.26
1.72
ND
7.55
1989
0.67
8.98
ND
8.43
1990
-1.31
4.86
ND
4.17
1991
-2.49
-0.59
ND
1.64
1992
-0.71
-0.53
ND
5.47
1993
2.76
11.59
ND
12.93
1994
1.30
11.48
ND
9.79
1995
-0.22
12.02
ND
6.52
1996
-0.28
8.95
ND
6.39
1997
0.15
11.80
ND
7.32
1998
1999
1.24
0.34
13.69
14.92
ND
ND
9.66
7.72
2000
-0.06
11.20
ND
6.86
2001
-1.38
8.28
-8.52
4.02
2002
-2.50
ND
4.21
1.61
2003
0.49
ND
13.36
8.05
*(8-quarter percent change in real business output less year-earlier 8-quarter percent change) Return to table
Bottom-left panel
Nonresidential Buildings
Index, Jan. 1998 = 100; Twelve-month moving average
Contracts
Construction
Jan 1985
Feb 1985
69.79
70.54
62.67
63.86
Mar 1985
71.48
64.93
Apr 1985
72.85
66.03
May 1985
73.15
67.08
Jun 1985
73.58
67.97
Jul 1985
Aug 1985
74.61
74.93
68.85
69.68
Sep 1985
76.31
70.50
Oct 1985
77.19
71.29
Nov 1985
77.32
72.10
Dec 1985
77.08
72.87
Jan 1986
Feb 1986
76.65
77.41
73.25
73.56
Mar 1986
76.67
73.47
Apr 1986
76.86
73.37
Contracts
Construction
May 1986
75.88
72.89
Jun 1986
76.01
72.38
Jul 1986
75.26
71.93
Aug 1986
74.93
71.53
Sep 1986
Oct 1986
74.54
73.58
70.93
70.59
Nov 1986
73.47
70.00
Dec 1986
73.68
69.38
Jan 1987
73.42
68.79
Feb 1987
72.69
68.37
Mar 1987
Apr 1987
73.22
72.78
67.99
67.71
May 1987
72.29
67.92
Jun 1987
73.29
68.01
Jul 1987
74.48
68.27
Aug 1987
74.75
68.66
Sep 1987
Oct 1987
74.95
75.65
69.15
69.36
Nov 1987
75.64
69.96
Dec 1987
76.94
70.43
Jan 1988
76.57
70.89
Feb 1988
77.89
71.09
Mar 1988
77.81
71.80
Apr 1988
77.39
72.37
May 1988
77.77
72.78
Jun 1988
77.40
73.46
Jul 1988
76.72
73.87
Aug 1988
77.60
74.08
Sep 1988
Oct 1988
77.11
76.76
74.15
74.37
Nov 1988
76.84
74.37
Dec 1988
75.78
74.74
Jan 1989
77.24
75.33
Feb 1989
76.38
75.94
Mar 1989
Apr 1989
76.21
76.54
76.39
76.62
May 1989
77.37
76.85
Jun 1989
77.20
77.09
Jul 1989
77.34
77.41
Aug 1989
76.85
78.03
Sep 1989
Oct 1989
78.49
79.16
78.74
79.31
Nov 1989
79.32
80.03
Dec 1989
80.65
80.08
Contracts
Construction
Jan 1990
80.20
80.35
Feb 1990
79.73
80.96
Mar 1990
79.93
81.36
Apr 1990
79.67
81.79
May 1990
Jun 1990
78.83
78.31
82.22
82.63
Jul 1990
77.07
83.25
Aug 1990
75.48
83.29
Sep 1990
73.25
83.21
Oct 1990
71.98
82.94
Nov 1990
Dec 1990
71.36
68.74
82.38
82.25
Jan 1991
66.78
81.62
Feb 1991
65.96
80.74
Mar 1991
64.41
79.71
Apr 1991
64.03
79.12
May 1991
Jun 1991
63.11
61.19
77.82
76.31
Jul 1991
60.31
74.49
Aug 1991
59.94
73.01
Sep 1991
58.49
71.43
Oct 1991
57.57
69.98
Nov 1991
55.84
68.49
Dec 1991
55.48
67.00
Jan 1992
55.80
65.65
Feb 1992
56.66
64.27
Mar 1992
56.46
63.45
Apr 1992
55.80
62.01
May 1992
Jun 1992
55.08
56.16
61.34
60.93
Jul 1992
56.71
60.73
Aug 1992
56.00
60.12
Sep 1992
56.78
59.96
Oct 1992
57.11
60.06
Nov 1992
Dec 1992
57.25
56.74
60.21
60.28
Jan 1993
56.13
60.28
Feb 1993
54.89
60.35
Mar 1993
55.37
60.10
Apr 1993
54.96
60.10
May 1993
Jun 1993
55.00
54.63
60.27
60.29
Jul 1993
54.85
60.17
Aug 1993
55.54
60.55
Contracts
Construction
Sep 1993
55.58
60.83
Oct 1993
55.98
60.84
Nov 1993
56.35
61.10
Dec 1993
57.44
61.50
Jan 1994
Feb 1994
58.53
59.18
61.63
61.73
Mar 1994
59.81
62.41
Apr 1994
60.18
63.27
May 1994
60.77
63.97
Jun 1994
61.84
64.71
Jul 1994
Aug 1994
62.20
63.40
65.35
65.98
Sep 1994
64.47
66.59
Oct 1994
64.43
67.28
Nov 1994
65.87
67.96
Dec 1994
66.73
68.61
Jan 1995
Feb 1995
67.72
68.59
69.66
71.00
Mar 1995
69.48
71.90
Apr 1995
70.57
72.74
May 1995
72.23
73.42
Jun 1995
73.14
74.20
Jul 1995
73.97
75.33
Aug 1995
74.46
76.02
Sep 1995
75.43
76.72
Oct 1995
76.30
77.47
Nov 1995
77.57
78.13
Dec 1995
77.55
78.91
Jan 1996
Feb 1996
78.03
77.52
79.81
80.39
Mar 1996
77.72
80.76
Apr 1996
78.88
81.29
May 1996
79.20
81.88
Jun 1996
79.32
82.68
Jul 1996
Aug 1996
79.96
80.88
83.11
84.05
Sep 1996
81.39
85.08
Oct 1996
81.67
86.41
Nov 1996
82.35
87.79
Dec 1996
83.86
88.94
Jan 1997
Feb 1997
84.24
85.84
90.11
91.44
Mar 1997
86.16
92.54
Apr 1997
87.30
93.43
Contracts
Construction
May 1997
89.07
94.35
Jun 1997
90.59
95.04
Jul 1997
92.46
96.28
Aug 1997
92.45
97.33
Sep 1997
Oct 1997
93.69
96.80
98.15
98.60
Nov 1997
97.44
98.91
Dec 1997
98.48
99.45
Jan 1998
100.00
100.00
Feb 1998
101.89
100.45
Mar 1998
Apr 1998
104.03
104.18
101.33
102.44
May 1998
104.61
103.29
Jun 1998
105.72
104.44
Jul 1998
106.59
105.02
Aug 1998
109.32
105.70
Sep 1998
Oct 1998
110.39
110.46
106.24
107.05
Nov 1998
111.51
108.10
Dec 1998
112.60
109.08
Jan 1999
114.66
109.76
Feb 1999
115.04
110.61
Mar 1999
115.58
111.25
Apr 1999
117.43
111.49
May 1999
118.42
111.86
Jun 1999
119.14
111.78
Jul 1999
118.99
111.96
Aug 1999
117.98
111.82
Sep 1999
Oct 1999
118.30
118.04
111.86
111.60
Nov 1999
117.96
111.38
Dec 1999
117.31
111.11
Jan 2000
114.52
111.05
Feb 2000
116.09
111.18
Mar 2000
Apr 2000
118.03
117.20
111.50
111.94
May 2000
116.49
112.68
Jun 2000
116.77
113.48
Jul 2000
116.67
114.31
Aug 2000
117.04
115.43
Sep 2000
Oct 2000
116.98
117.90
116.57
117.83
Nov 2000
118.35
118.89
Dec 2000
119.61
120.05
Contracts
Construction
Jan 2001
121.93
121.34
Feb 2001
121.22
122.11
Mar 2001
119.30
123.08
Apr 2001
119.19
123.81
May 2001
Jun 2001
118.79
117.16
123.90
123.97
Jul 2001
116.01
123.94
Aug 2001
115.17
123.40
Sep 2001
113.58
122.83
Oct 2001
112.12
121.99
Nov 2001
Dec 2001
110.11
107.80
120.93
119.63
Jan 2002
105.09
118.10
Feb 2002
103.48
116.55
Mar 2002
100.61
114.50
Apr 2002
98.72
112.83
May 2002
97.44
ND
Bottom-right panel
Office Buildings
Vacancy rate
(Percent)
Real Investment
(Billions of 1996 dollars)
1985:Q1
15.70
55.83
1985:Q2
16.40
57.41
1985:Q3
16.10
56.94
1985:Q4
1986:Q1
16.40
16.80
57.24
54.94
1986:Q2
17.00
51.02
1986:Q3
17.30
47.76
1986:Q4
17.30
47.06
1987:Q1
17.70
44.74
1987:Q2
1987:Q3
17.30
17.30
43.71
44.72
1987:Q4
17.30
45.99
1988:Q1
18.90
44.45
1988:Q2
18.50
46.39
1988:Q3
18.30
45.95
1988:Q4
1989:Q1
18.20
18.20
45.22
45.75
1989:Q2
18.30
44.02
1989:Q3
18.30
44.46
1989:Q4
18.60
43.09
1990:Q1
18.80
42.87
Vacancy rate
(Percent)
Real Investment
(Billions of 1996 dollars)
1990:Q2
18.80
41.13
1990:Q3
18.70
40.94
1990:Q4
18.90
38.54
1991:Q1
19.00
34.90
1991:Q2
19.10
33.58
1991:Q3
18.80
31.54
1991:Q4
18.90
28.96
1992:Q1
19.10
27.88
1992:Q2
19.10
26.80
1992:Q3
18.90
25.34
1992:Q4
18.70
27.64
1993:Q1
18.30
28.05
1993:Q2
18.00
27.85
1993:Q3
17.60
26.01
1993:Q4
1994:Q1
17.00
16.80
25.58
26.29
1994:Q2
16.30
28.10
1994:Q3
15.90
27.21
1994:Q4
15.50
28.19
1995:Q1
15.20
29.77
1995:Q2
1995:Q3
14.70
14.40
31.80
31.35
1995:Q4
14.10
28.97
1996:Q1
13.80
28.09
1996:Q2
13.10
32.08
1996:Q3
12.80
34.07
1996:Q4
1997:Q1
12.10
11.60
35.56
37.08
1997:Q2
11.20
35.42
1997:Q3
10.50
40.15
1997:Q4
9.80
42.04
1998:Q1
9.50
44.11
1998:Q2
1998:Q3
9.30
9.00
46.20
44.55
1998:Q4
8.90
48.81
1999:Q1
9.50
50.41
1999:Q2
9.60
49.17
1999:Q3
9.60
50.08
1999:Q4
2000:Q1
9.10
8.60
48.89
50.02
2000:Q2
8.00
54.70
2000:Q3
7.70
57.48
2000:Q4
7.80
60.25
2001:Q1
9.10
59.17
Vacancy rate
(Percent)
Real Investment
(Billions of 1996 dollars)
2001:Q2
10.30
54.64
2001:Q3
12.00
49.06
2001:Q4
13.20
46.03
2002:Q1
14.20
40.79
Chart 7
Household Spending
Top panel
Growth in Real PCE and Residential Investment
(Percent, annual rate)
Four quarters
ending at peak
Recession
Four quarters
after trough
1. Average in previous cycles
2.0
-.5
6.3
2. Current cycle and forecast
3.2
3.3
2.5
Note. Previous cycles include all postwar peaks and troughs through 1991. Trough of current cycle is assumed to be 2002:Q1.
Middle panel
Growth of Real Capital Stocks
Percent change; Annual
Consumer durables
Consumer durablesForecast
Private Residential
Structures
Private Residential
Structures-Forecast
1970
4.19
ND
2.75
ND
1971
5.41
ND
3.75
ND
1972
6.78
ND
4.37
ND
1973
7.65
ND
4.12
ND
1974
4.38
ND
2.76
ND
1975
3.66
ND
2.08
ND
1976
1977
5.42
6.18
ND
ND
2.84
3.63
ND
ND
1978
6.00
ND
3.77
ND
1979
4.68
ND
3.38
ND
1980
1.91
ND
2.21
ND
1981
1.89
ND
1.83
ND
1982
1983
1.42
3.90
ND
ND
1.17
2.25
ND
ND
1984
6.10
ND
2.73
ND
1985
6.82
ND
2.65
ND
1986
7.33
ND
3.08
ND
1987
6.16
ND
2.95
ND
1988
5.97
ND
2.77
ND
Consumer durables
Consumer durablesForecast
Private Residential
Structures
Private Residential
Structures-Forecast
1989
5.10
ND
2.52
ND
1990
3.49
ND
2.13
ND
1991
0.83
ND
1.53
ND
1992
1.82
ND
1.83
ND
1993
3.07
ND
2.20
ND
1994
3.87
ND
2.30
ND
1995
3.94
ND
2.13
ND
1996
4.24
ND
2.40
ND
1997
4.74
ND
2.32
ND
1998
6.02
ND
2.58
ND
1999
7.32
ND
2.72
ND
2000
8.00
ND
2.61
ND
2001
7.60
7.60
2.59
2.59
2002
ND
7.15
ND
2.65
2003
ND
6.56
ND
2.57
Note: As shown in the chart, shaded bars denote the recession periods of 1969:Q4-1970:Q4, 1973:Q4-1975:Q1,
1980:Q1-1980:Q3, 1981:Q3-1982:Q4, and 1990:Q3-1991:Q1, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER), and a vertical line indicates the NBER peak in March 2001 for the recession beginning in 2001:Q1.
Bottom panel
Growth of Real Disposable Income and Labor Productivity
Percent change from 5 years earlier, annual rate
Labor productivity,
nonfarm business
Labor productivity,
nonfarm businessForecast
Real DPI
Real DPI-Forecast
1970
2.00
ND
4.30
ND
1971
1972
2.14
2.43
ND
ND
4.11
4.19
ND
ND
1973
2.47
ND
4.65
ND
1974
2.09
ND
3.87
ND
1975
2.35
ND
3.40
ND
1976
2.26
ND
3.39
ND
1977
1978
1.89
1.52
ND
ND
3.18
2.80
ND
ND
1979
1.77
ND
3.52
ND
1980
1.16
1.17
3.31
ND
1981
0.66
0.67
2.90
ND
1982
0.24
0.24
2.44
ND
1983
1984
0.88
1.40
0.87
1.38
2.06
3.01
ND
ND
1985
1.72
1.71
3.52
ND
1986
2.08
2.07
3.70
ND
1987
2.27
2.27
3.86
ND
Labor productivity,
nonfarm businessForecast
Labor productivity,
nonfarm business
Real DPI
Real DPI-Forecast
1988
1989
1.62
1.35
1.63
1.35
4.13
3.12
ND
ND
1990
1.31
1.31
2.89
ND
1991
0.94
0.95
2.33
ND
1992
1.62
1.61
2.52
ND
1993
1.45
1.45
1.92
ND
1994
1995
1.56
1.53
1.56
1.53
1.92
2.01
ND
ND
1996
1.80
1.79
2.44
ND
1997
1.46
1.46
2.44
ND
1998
1.88
1.88
3.23
ND
1999
2.09
2.08
3.21
ND
2000
2.55
2.56
3.38
ND
2001
2.42
2.43
3.59
3.59
2002
ND
2.82
ND
3.84
2003
ND
2.60
ND
3.31
Note: As shown in the chart, shaded bars denote the recession periods of 1969:Q4-1970:Q4, 1973:Q4-1975:Q1,
1980:Q1-1980:Q3, 1981:Q3-1982:Q4, and 1990:Q3-1991:Q1, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER), and a vertical line indicates the NBER peak in March 2001 for the recession beginning in 2001:Q1.
Chart 8
Productivity
Top-left panel
Alternative Estimates of Labor Productivity
(Percent change)
2000:Q1-2001:Q1
2001:Q1-2002:Q1
Product side:
Establishment hours
2.6
4.2
Household hours
2.2
3.4
2.7
2.3
5.1
4.3
Income side:
Establishment hours
Household hours
Top-right panel
Structural Labor Productivity
Percent change, Q4/Q4
Productivity
1973-1995
1.4
1995-2000
2.6
Productivity
2001
2.3
2002
2.0
2003
2.5
Middle-left panel
Contribution of Private Capital Deepening
Percent change, Q4/Q4
Contribution
1973-1995
0.6
1995-2000
1.3
2001
0.6
2002
0.4
2003
0.8
Middle-right panel
Multifactor Productivity
Percent change, Q4/Q4
Productivity
1973-1995
0.6
1995-2000
1.1
2001
2002
1.4
1.3
2003
1.5
Bottom panel
Adjustment Costs and Labor Productivity
(Percent change, Q4/Q4)
1998
1. Measured productivity
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2.9
3.0
2.6
2.1
3.1
1.8
Productivity net of adjustment costs:
2a.
Low adjustment costs
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.0
3.2
1.9
2b.
High adjustment costs
3.3
3.2
2.9
1.8
3.2
2.2
Chart 9
Labor Markets
Top-left panel
Labor Productivity
Chained 1996 dollars per hour
Structural
Actual GB
Slower scenario
(0%)
Faster scenario
(2.5%)
Baseline scenario
(1.0%)
2001:Q1
38.31
38.11
ND
ND
ND
2001:Q2
38.53
38.30
ND
ND
ND
2001:Q3
38.74
38.40
ND
ND
ND
2001:Q4
38.96
38.91
ND
ND
ND
2002:Q1
39.14
39.72
ND
ND
ND
2002:Q2
39.33
39.94
39.94
39.94
39.94
2002:Q3
39.52
ND
39.94
40.19
40.06
2002:Q4
39.72
ND
39.94
40.44
40.14
Top-right panel
Effects on Employment
Unemployment
Rate
Change in Payroll* ('000s)
average monthly
Q3
Q4
Q4
Faster
-60
40
6.6
Baseline
150
200
5.9
Slower
320
240
5.5
*Private Return to table
Middle-left panel
Initial Claims
Thousands
Claims
4-week moving
average
8-Jan-2000
292.37
282.39
15-Jan-2000
284.81
282.79
22-Jan-2000
275.23
283.58
29-Jan-2000
5-Feb-2000
283.56
303.75
283.99
286.84
12-Feb-2000
292.56
288.78
19-Feb-2000
287.48
291.84
26-Feb-2000
271.19
288.75
4-Mar-2000
282.20
283.36
11-Mar-2000
18-Mar-2000
267.56
268.12
277.11
272.27
25-Mar-2000
273.50
272.84
1-Apr-2000
270.39
269.89
8-Apr-2000
266.94
269.74
15-Apr-2000
267.93
269.69
Claims
4-week moving
average
22-Apr-2000
263.84
267.28
29-Apr-2000
287.66
271.59
6-May-2000
289.44
277.22
13-May-2000
278.35
279.82
20-May-2000
279.15
283.65
27-May-2000
282.22
282.29
3-Jun-2000
289.06
282.20
10-Jun-2000
287.23
284.42
17-Jun-2000
287.60
286.53
24-Jun-2000
288.75
288.16
1-Jul-2000
277.49
285.27
8-Jul-2000
294.59
287.11
15-Jul-2000
298.60
289.86
22-Jul-2000
288.78
289.86
29-Jul-2000
5-Aug-2000
293.92
299.31
293.97
295.15
12-Aug-2000
311.77
298.44
19-Aug-2000
313.05
304.51
26-Aug-2000
314.73
309.71
2-Sep-2000
307.74
311.82
9-Sep-2000
16-Sep-2000
317.83
316.57
313.34
314.22
23-Sep-2000
295.94
309.52
30-Sep-2000
303.68
308.51
7-Oct-2000
310.89
306.77
14-Oct-2000
312.09
305.65
21-Oct-2000
28-Oct-2000
310.70
317.36
309.34
312.76
4-Nov-2000
332.00
318.04
11-Nov-2000
325.92
321.49
18-Nov-2000
332.07
326.84
25-Nov-2000
355.18
336.29
2-Dec-2000
9-Dec-2000
338.77
331.16
337.99
339.29
16-Dec-2000
351.35
344.11
23-Dec-2000
368.43
347.43
30-Dec-2000
370.50
355.36
6-Jan-2001
333.97
356.06
13-Jan-2001
20-Jan-2001
312.71
330.22
346.40
336.85
27-Jan-2001
366.02
335.73
3-Feb-2001
357.22
341.54
10-Feb-2001
356.99
352.61
17-Feb-2001
350.45
357.67
Claims
4-week moving
average
24-Feb-2001
377.90
360.64
3-Mar-2001
377.54
365.72
10-Mar-2001
388.64
373.63
17-Mar-2001
387.74
382.95
24-Mar-2001
377.68
382.90
31-Mar-2001
396.65
387.68
7-Apr-2001
397.42
389.87
14-Apr-2001
385.40
389.29
21-Apr-2001
400.40
394.97
28-Apr-2001
411.37
398.65
5-May-2001
380.05
394.30
12-May-2001
395.43
396.81
19-May-2001
403.03
397.47
26-May-2001
414.24
398.19
2-Jun-2001
9-Jun-2001
409.11
421.63
405.45
412.00
16-Jun-2001
388.77
408.44
23-Jun-2001
371.15
397.66
30-Jun-2001
385.30
391.71
7-Jul-2001
408.96
388.54
14-Jul-2001
21-Jul-2001
399.05
379.95
391.12
393.32
28-Jul-2001
376.97
391.23
4-Aug-2001
389.13
386.28
11-Aug-2001
387.62
383.42
18-Aug-2001
392.93
386.66
25-Aug-2001
1-Sep-2001
403.06
408.71
393.19
398.08
8-Sep-2001
431.78
409.12
15-Sep-2001
400.36
410.98
22-Sep-2001
470.09
427.74
29-Sep-2001
543.18
461.35
6-Oct-2001
13-Oct-2001
485.88
502.07
474.88
500.31
20-Oct-2001
516.40
511.88
27-Oct-2001
513.73
504.52
3-Nov-2001
444.54
494.19
10-Nov-2001
445.98
480.16
17-Nov-2001
24-Nov-2001
424.46
489.80
457.18
451.19
1-Dec-2001
466.84
456.77
8-Dec-2001
407.04
447.04
15-Dec-2001
386.73
437.60
22-Dec-2001
415.22
418.96
Claims
4-week moving
average
29-Dec-2001
420.67
407.42
5-Jan-2002
386.20
402.21
12-Jan-2002
406.38
407.12
19-Jan-2002
389.66
400.73
26-Jan-2002
403.17
396.35
2-Feb-2002
377.63
394.21
9-Feb-2002
385.26
388.93
16-Feb-2002
377.16
385.81
23-Feb-2002
387.95
382.00
2-Mar-2002
386.08
384.11
9-Mar-2002
394.30
386.37
16-Mar-2002
382.27
387.65
23-Mar-2002
409.81
393.12
30-Mar-2002
465.62
413.00
6-Apr-2002
13-Apr-2002
435.26
457.03
423.24
441.93
20-Apr-2002
429.04
446.74
27-Apr-2002
422.92
436.06
4-May-2002
410.19
429.79
11-May-2002
421.65
420.95
18-May-2002
25-May-2002
417.06
414.50
417.96
415.85
1-Jun-2002
381.61
408.70
8-Jun-2002
398.16
402.83
15-Jun-2002
385.05
394.83
Middle-right panel
Current Employment Conditions
Conference Board
Percent
Jan 1990
Jobs plentiful
27.20
Jobs hard to get
21.60
Feb 1990
28.10
20.50
Mar 1990
29.20
21.80
Apr 1990
26.60
22.30
May 1990
26.90
22.90
Jun 1990
Jul 1990
23.40
25.60
23.70
22.10
Aug 1990
21.40
25.80
Sep 1990
20.60
25.10
Oct 1990
15.30
29.80
Nov 1990
13.70
29.40
Jobs plentiful
Jobs hard to get
Dec 1990
12.40
31.70
Jan 1991
11.40
33.10
Feb 1991
10.00
33.20
Mar 1991
10.40
35.70
Apr 1991
May 1991
9.40
9.80
35.50
37.80
Jun 1991
8.70
37.50
Jul 1991
7.80
37.60
Aug 1991
8.60
38.60
Sep 1991
7.20
40.00
Oct 1991
Nov 1991
5.50
5.10
43.50
47.10
Dec 1991
4.30
47.80
Jan 1992
4.90
47.00
Feb 1992
4.40
48.90
Mar 1992
4.80
46.90
Apr 1992
May 1992
5.00
5.90
45.20
40.30
Jun 1992
6.30
40.60
Jul 1992
5.80
43.00
Aug 1992
5.60
46.80
Sep 1992
6.00
45.70
Oct 1992
5.40
45.70
Nov 1992
6.80
45.50
Dec 1992
7.00
42.80
Jan 1993
7.80
38.40
Feb 1993
7.00
40.20
Mar 1993
7.00
40.40
Apr 1993
May 1993
7.80
8.00
41.60
40.40
Jun 1993
7.50
41.00
Jul 1993
8.20
40.00
Aug 1993
8.50
40.50
Sep 1993
9.00
39.00
Oct 1993
Nov 1993
9.10
9.50
38.80
36.10
Dec 1993
9.50
36.30
Jan 1994
11.30
34.40
Feb 1994
12.20
31.70
Mar 1994
13.10
32.50
Apr 1994
May 1994
14.50
14.60
28.90
32.40
Jun 1994
15.90
29.50
Jul 1994
15.20
28.60
Jobs plentiful
Jobs hard to get
Aug 1994
15.60
28.20
Sep 1994
15.80
28.50
Oct 1994
16.10
29.70
Nov 1994
19.90
27.60
Dec 1994
Jan 1995
21.10
22.60
24.20
25.50
Feb 1995
21.80
24.50
Mar 1995
23.20
24.50
Apr 1995
23.00
23.70
May 1995
22.90
24.20
Jun 1995
Jul 1995
21.00
24.00
24.60
23.10
Aug 1995
23.60
24.60
Sep 1995
22.70
25.10
Oct 1995
20.60
27.00
Nov 1995
22.70
25.60
Dec 1995
Jan 1996
21.60
21.30
24.80
26.30
Feb 1996
21.80
23.40
Mar 1996
22.50
26.20
Apr 1996
23.00
21.40
May 1996
24.80
22.80
Jun 1996
24.60
23.60
Jul 1996
26.50
22.40
Aug 1996
27.00
21.90
Sep 1996
26.40
20.40
Oct 1996
25.40
22.40
Nov 1996
26.50
21.40
Dec 1996
Jan 1997
28.80
30.90
20.70
18.60
Feb 1997
32.50
18.50
Mar 1997
33.10
18.50
Apr 1997
31.10
19.50
May 1997
34.90
17.40
Jun 1997
Jul 1997
36.00
36.20
16.50
16.90
Aug 1997
37.20
17.00
Sep 1997
36.40
16.10
Oct 1997
33.50
18.80
Nov 1997
36.40
17.40
Dec 1997
Jan 1998
40.10
40.10
16.00
16.40
Feb 1998
42.80
13.20
Mar 1998
45.00
13.80
Jobs plentiful
Jobs hard to get
Apr 1998
44.30
14.30
May 1998
44.20
14.00
Jun 1998
44.70
13.50
Jul 1998
46.10
14.00
Aug 1998
Sep 1998
44.80
45.20
13.80
14.30
Oct 1998
41.90
15.30
Nov 1998
40.70
14.40
Dec 1998
42.50
14.60
Jan 1999
46.60
13.00
Feb 1999
Mar 1999
47.80
47.30
11.90
12.20
Apr 1999
47.80
12.70
May 1999
47.60
12.50
Jun 1999
47.30
12.30
Jul 1999
49.40
11.50
Aug 1999
Sep 1999
49.40
47.50
12.70
12.70
Oct 1999
47.60
13.30
Nov 1999
48.10
11.80
Dec 1999
51.80
11.80
Jan 2000
55.20
11.20
Feb 2000
51.20
11.40
Mar 2000
53.30
10.60
Apr 2000
52.40
12.10
May 2000
53.00
11.00
Jun 2000
53.70
11.20
Jul 2000
55.80
9.60
Aug 2000
Sep 2000
53.50
52.50
11.50
10.60
Oct 2000
50.00
12.00
Nov 2000
50.60
11.10
Dec 2000
50.80
12.40
Jan 2001
49.00
12.80
Feb 2001
Mar 2001
43.70
43.80
12.40
12.60
Apr 2001
40.10
14.20
May 2001
39.30
14.30
Jun 2001
38.30
13.90
Jul 2001
35.60
14.10
Aug 2001
Sep 2001
33.60
27.10
16.00
18.80
Oct 2001
20.90
20.60
Nov 2001
17.50
22.70
Jobs plentiful
Jobs hard to get
Dec 2001
17.90
21.90
Jan 2002
18.40
22.50
Feb 2002
18.20
22.60
Mar 2002
20.60
21.10
Apr 2002
May 2002
20.90
21.20
22.70
21.90
Jun 2002
20.10
23.10
Bottom panel
Hourly Labor Compensation
Four-quarter percent change
P&C
compensation
per hour
P&C
compensation
per
hour-Forecast
Employment
cost index
Employment
cost indexForecast
1995:Q1
1.25
ND
2.98
ND
1995:Q2
2.02
ND
2.87
ND
1995:Q3
2.59
ND
2.52
ND
1995:Q4
1996:Q1
2.57
2.75
ND
ND
2.67
2.73
ND
ND
1996:Q2
3.11
ND
2.79
ND
1996:Q3
3.18
ND
2.85
ND
1996:Q4
3.25
ND
2.91
ND
1997:Q1
3.23
ND
2.89
ND
1997:Q2
1997:Q3
2.47
2.72
ND
ND
2.87
3.08
ND
ND
1997:Q4
3.42
ND
3.44
ND
1998:Q1
4.56
ND
3.42
ND
1998:Q2
5.70
ND
3.54
ND
1998:Q3
5.91
ND
3.74
ND
1998:Q4
1999:Q1
5.30
4.53
ND
ND
3.40
3.01
ND
ND
1999:Q2
4.13
ND
3.28
ND
1999:Q3
4.25
ND
3.17
ND
1999:Q4
4.54
ND
3.43
ND
2000:Q1
5.32
ND
4.56
ND
2000:Q2
2000:Q3
6.23
6.79
ND
ND
4.58
4.68
ND
ND
2000:Q4
7.82
ND
4.50
ND
2001:Q1
7.30
7.34
4.23
ND
2001:Q2
6.48
6.51
4.05
ND
2001:Q3
5.54
5.55
3.94
ND
2001:Q4
3.88
3.86
4.10
ND
P&C
compensation
per hour
P&C
compensation
per
hour-Forecast
Employment
cost index
Employment
cost indexForecast
2002:Q1
3.40
3.33
3.86
3.86
2002:Q2
ND
2.85
ND
3.75
2002:Q3
ND
2.68
ND
3.71
2002:Q4
ND
2.95
ND
3.52
2003:Q1
ND
3.11
ND
3.50
2003:Q2
ND
3.28
ND
3.50
2003:Q3
ND
3.36
ND
3.50
2003:Q4
ND
3.40
ND
3.53
Chart 10
Prices
Top-left panel
Unit Labor Costs*
Based on actual productivity
Four-quarter percent change
Unit Labor Costs
Forecast
1999
1.50
ND
2000
5.00
ND
2001
2002
1.70
ND
ND
-0.29
2003
ND
1.58
Based on structural productivity
Four-quarter percent change
Unit Labor Costs
Forecast
1999:Q1
1.65
ND
1999:Q2
1999:Q3
1.23
1.31
ND
ND
1999:Q4
1.57
ND
2000:Q1
2.30
ND
2000:Q2
3.17
ND
2000:Q3
3.69
ND
2000:Q4
2001:Q1
4.66
4.39
ND
ND
2001:Q2
3.77
ND
2001:Q3
3.03
ND
2001:Q4
1.57
1.57
2002:Q1
ND
1.13
2002:Q2
2002:Q3
ND
ND
0.73
0.64
Unit Labor Costs
Forecast
2002:Q4
ND
0.98
2003:Q1
ND
1.01
2003:Q2
ND
1.04
2003:Q3
ND
0.99
2003:Q4
ND
0.89
*P&C basis. Return to text
Top-right panel
Core Non-oil Import Prices
Four-quarter percent change
Price
Forecast
1998:Q1
-1.50
ND
1998:Q2
-1.40
ND
1998:Q3
-2.26
ND
1998:Q4
-2.03
ND
1999:Q1
-1.30
ND
1999:Q2
-1.04
ND
1999:Q3
0.09
ND
1999:Q4
0.35
ND
2000:Q1
0.77
ND
2000:Q2
1.47
ND
2000:Q3
1.61
ND
2000:Q4
2001:Q1
1.60
1.78
ND
ND
2001:Q2
0.00
ND
2001:Q3
-1.97
ND
2001:Q4
-3.15
ND
2002:Q1
-4.22
-4.22
2002:Q2
2002:Q3
ND
ND
-2.58
0.24
2002:Q4
ND
1.88
2003:Q1
ND
3.23
2003:Q2
ND
3.55
2003:Q3
ND
2.93
2003:Q4
ND
2.73
Middle-left panel
PCE Food and Energy Prices
Percent change, Q4/Q4
Food
Food-Forecast
Energy
EnergyForecast
Food
Food-Forecast
Energy
EnergyForecast
1998
1.90
ND
-9.58
ND
1999
1.97
ND
12.18
ND
2000
2.51
ND
15.35
ND
2001
3.20
ND
-9.87
ND
2002
ND
1.62
ND
2.98
2003
ND
2.08
ND
-0.87
Middle-right panel
Inflation Expectations
Michigan SRC, One-year
ahead, median
Percent
Jan 1998
2.30
Feb 1998
2.40
Mar 1998
2.50
Apr 1998
2.40
May 1998
2.60
Jun 1998
2.70
Jul 1998
2.60
Aug 1998
2.40
Sep 1998
2.30
Oct 1998
2.50
Nov 1998
2.30
Dec 1998
2.50
Jan 1999
2.70
Feb 1999
2.50
Mar 1999
Apr 1999
2.70
2.70
May 1999
2.80
Jun 1999
2.50
Jul 1999
2.70
Aug 1999
2.80
Sep 1999
Oct 1999
2.70
2.90
Nov 1999
2.90
Dec 1999
3.00
Jan 2000
3.00
Feb 2000
2.90
Mar 2000
Apr 2000
3.20
3.20
May 2000
3.00
Jun 2000
2.90
Percent
Jul 2000
3.00
Aug 2000
2.70
Sep 2000
2.90
Oct 2000
3.20
Nov 2000
Dec 2000
2.90
2.80
Jan 2001
3.00
Feb 2001
2.80
Mar 2001
2.80
Apr 2001
3.10
May 2001
Jun 2001
3.20
3.00
Jul 2001
2.60
Aug 2001
2.70
Sep 2001
2.80
Oct 2001
1.00
Nov 2001
Dec 2001
0.40
1.80
Jan 2002
1.90
Feb 2002
2.10
Mar 2002
2.70
Apr 2002
2.80
May 2002
2.70
Jun 2002
3.00
FRB Philadelphia, One-year
ahead
Percent
1998:Q1
2.25
1998:Q2
2.45
1998:Q3
2.48
1998:Q4
2.30
1999:Q1
1999:Q2
2.20
2.20
1999:Q3
2.38
1999:Q4
2.53
2000:Q1
2.50
2000:Q2
2.60
2000:Q3
2000:Q4
2.70
2.68
2001:Q1
2.50
2001:Q2
2.50
2001:Q3
2.60
2001:Q4
2.18
Percent
2002:Q1
2.20
2002:Q2
2.35
Bottom panel
Core Consumer Prices
Four-quarter percent change
Currentmethods CPI
Currentmethods
CPI-Forecast
PCE
PCE-Forecast
Market-Based Market-Based
PCE
PCE-Forecast
1995:Q1
2.36
ND
2.59
ND
2.04
ND
1995:Q2
2.49
ND
2.53
ND
1.83
ND
1995:Q3
2.54
ND
2.28
ND
1.78
ND
1995:Q4
2.69
ND
2.27
ND
1.86
ND
1996:Q1
2.60
ND
2.04
ND
1.66
ND
1996:Q2
2.37
ND
1.87
ND
1.53
ND
1996:Q3
2.29
ND
1.74
ND
1.39
ND
1996:Q4
2.21
ND
1.83
ND
1.40
ND
1997:Q1
2.10
ND
1.97
ND
1.40
ND
1997:Q2
2.20
ND
2.11
ND
1.55
ND
1997:Q3
1997:Q4
1.99
1.92
ND
ND
1.98
1.73
ND
ND
1.42
1.19
ND
ND
1998:Q1
2.04
ND
1.54
ND
1.18
ND
1998:Q2
2.01
ND
1.39
ND
1.07
ND
1998:Q3
2.17
ND
1.52
ND
1.27
ND
1998:Q4
2.17
ND
1.58
ND
1.38
ND
1999:Q1
1999:Q2
2.01
1.99
ND
ND
1.53
1.42
ND
ND
1.40
1.39
ND
ND
1999:Q3
2.00
ND
1.41
ND
1.28
ND
1999:Q4
2.08
ND
1.48
ND
1.41
ND
2000:Q1
2.20
ND
1.85
ND
1.48
ND
2000:Q2
2.36
ND
1.97
ND
1.58
ND
2000:Q3
2000:Q4
2.51
2.48
ND
ND
1.99
1.93
ND
ND
1.74
1.73
ND
ND
2001:Q1
2.62
ND
1.85
ND
1.84
ND
2001:Q2
2.63
ND
1.59
ND
1.64
ND
2001:Q3
2.64
ND
1.29
ND
1.63
ND
2001:Q4
2.69
ND
1.60
ND
1.65
ND
2002:Q1
2002:Q2
2.54
ND
2.51
2.51
1.20
ND
1.20
1.47
1.30
ND
1.33
1.56
2002:Q3
ND
2.39
ND
1.71
ND
1.54
2002:Q4
ND
2.27
ND
1.37
ND
1.45
2003:Q1
ND
2.22
ND
1.48
ND
1.50
2003:Q2
ND
2.14
ND
1.39
ND
1.36
Currentmethods CPI
2003:Q3
2003:Q4
ND
ND
Currentmethods
CPI-Forecast
2.11
2.08
PCE
ND
ND
PCE-Forecast
Market-Based Market-Based
PCE
PCE-Forecast
1.37
1.36
ND
ND
1.32
1.29
Chart 11
Financial Developments
Chart 11 is a three-by-two array of panels, including graphs for nominal exchange rates, a previous
depreciation episode, three-month euro futures rates, three-month yen futures rates, a table on
interest rates, and a graph on broad stock price indexes.
Top-left panel
Nominal Exchange Rates
Nominal Exchange Rates, Foreign currency/U.S. dollar, on a weekly basis for 2000 through
mid-2002. The range of the y-axis is [90, 140]; index, Jan. 3, 2000 = 100. The three series are the
euro, the yen, and a basket of "major currencies," where the last is the trade-weighted average against
major currencies. The chart shows the decline in the nominal exchange value of the dollar that has
occurred since shortly after the January 2002 chart show in terms of these currencies. The major
currencies index starts at 100, moves generally upward to about 118 by early 2002, and then declines
to about 110 by mid 2002. The euro begins at 100, increases to about 120 by late 2000, drops to
about 110 by the end of 2000, increases to about 120 by mid-2001, drops to about 108 a few months
later, climbs to about 118 by early 2002, and then declines to about 105 by mid-2002. The yen starts
at 100, fluctuates around 105 during most of 2000, rises to slightly over 130 by early 2002, and then
declines to just over 120 by mid-2002.
Top-right panel
Previous Depreciation Episode
Previous Depreciation Episode, Foreign currency/U.S. dollar, on a weekly basis for 1984-1987. The
range of the y-axis is [50, 130]; index, Jan. 3, 1984 = 100. The three series are the Canadian dollar,
the German mark, and the yen. The Canadian dollar starts at 100, rises gradually to about 112 by
early 1986, and then declines gradually to about 105 by the end of 1987. The German mark begins at
about 100, dips immediately to about 94, rises to about 122 by early 1985, and then drops steeply to
about 60 by the end of 1987. The yen starts at 100, dips immediately to about 96, rises to about 110
by early 1985, and then drops steeply to about 54 by the end of 1987.
Middle-left panel
Three-Month Euro Futures Rates
Three-Month Euro Futures Rates for 2002-2003, as of January 29, 2002, as of March 28, 2002, and
as of June 24, 2002. The range of the y-axis is [3.0, 5.0]; unit is percent. The futures rates as of
January 29, 2002, begin at about 3.5 percent and rise to about 4.8 percent by the end of the period.
The futures rates as of March 28, 2002, begin at about 3.6 percent and rise to about 5 percent by the
end of the period. The futures rates as of June 24, 2002, begin at about 3.5 percent and rise to about
4.5 percent by the end of the period.
Middle-right panel
Three-Month Yen Futures Rates
Three-Month Yen Futures Rates for 2002-2003, as of January 29, 2002, as of March 28, 2002, and as
of June 24, 2002. The range of the y-axis is [0.0, 2.0]; unit is percent. The rates as of January 29,
2002, begin at about 0.1 percent and rise to about 0.4 percent by the end of the period. The rates as of
March 28, 2002, and as of June 24, 2002 track almost identically; they begin at about 0.1 percent and
rise to about 0.3 percent by the end of the period.
Bottom-left panel
Interest Rates
The table reports spot short-term and long-term interest rates and their change since the January 2002
meeting. The first column shows the level as of 6/24/02, and the second column shows the change
from 1/29/02 to 6/24/02.
Level 6/24/02
Change 1/29/02 to
6/24/02
Three-Month
1. Euro
3.46
0.09
2. Japan
3. United States
0.02
1.81
-0.02
0.01
1. Germany
4.93
-0.08
2. Japan
1.32
-0.15
3. United States
4.84
-0.18
Ten-Year
Bottom-right panel
Broad Stock Price Indexes for the S&P 500, the DJ Euro, and the TOPIX for 2000 through
mid-2002. The range of the y-axis is [50, 120]; index, Jan. 3, 2000 = 100. The S&P 500 starts at 100
and, with modest volatility, declines to about 70 by late 2001, rises to about 80 by early 2002, and
then declines to about 70 by mid-2002. The DJ Euro starts at 100 and, with modest volatility, rises to
about 112 in early 2000, declines to about 60 by late 2001, rises to about 75 by early 2002, and then
declines to about 64 by mid-2002. The TOPIX starts at 100, and, with modest volatility, declines to
about 60 by late 2001 and then fluctuates around 60 through mid-2002.
Chart 12
Foreign Outlook
Chart 12 is a three-by-two array of panels, including graphs of real GDP, foreign real GDP, industrial
production, business confidence, and exports, and a table of real GDP growth for industrial countries.
Top-left panel
Real GDP
Real GDP (percent change, SAAR*), U.S. and total foreign,** as a bar chart for 2001:H1 (actual),
2001:H2 (actual), 2002:H1 (projected), 2002:H2 (projected), 2003:H1 (projected), and 2003:H2
(projected). The range of the y-axis is [-1, 6]. Approximate values for the six periods are as follows.
Percent change, SAAR
2001
H1
2002
H2
H1
2003
H2
H1
H2
United States (red)
0.8
0.1
3.9
3.5
4.0
4.1
Total foreign (blue)
-0.1
0.2
3.0
3.4
3.5
3.5
*Half years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Return to text
**Total foreign GDP growth is calculated using U.S. total export weights. Return to text
Top-right panel
Foreign Real GDP
Foreign Real GDP* (percent change, Q4/Q4), for industrial countries, Asia, and Latin America, as a
bar chart for 2001 (actual), 2002 (projected), and 2003 (projected). The range of the y-axis is [-2, 7].
Approximate values for the three years are as follows.
Percent change, Q4/Q4
2001
2002
2003
Industrial countries (red)
0.3
2.8
2.8
Asia (blue)
Latin America (green)
0.75
-1.6
5.5
2.4
5.7
3.7
*Foreign real GDP growth is calculated using U.S. total export weights. Return to text
Middle-left panel
Industrial Production
Industrial Production for 2000 through mid-2002 for the euro area, the U.K., Canada, and Japan. The
range of the y-axis is [85, 110]; index, Jan. 2000 = 100, SA. All four indexes start at 100 at the
beginning of the period. The index for the euro area rises to about 107 by the end of 2000, falls to
about 102 by late 2001, and rises slightly to about 103 by the end of the period. The index for the
U.K. rises to about 103 by mid-2000, declines to about 95 in early 2002, with a slight uptick to about
96 by mid-2002. The index for Canada rises to about 102 by mid-2000, declines to about 95 by
end-2001, and then rises to about 98 by the end of the period. The index for Japan rises to about 106
by mid-2000, falls sharply to just below 90 by late 2001, and then rises slightly to about 92 by the
end of the period.
Middle-right panel
Business Confidence
Business Confidence for 2000 through mid-2002 for the euro area, the U.K., Canada, and Japan. The
graph uses diffusion indexes for the euro area, the U.K., and Japan; the range of the left y-axis is
[-40, 30] for the euro area, the U.K., and Japan. The graph uses a business confidence index where
2000:Q1 = 100 for Canada; the range of the right y-axis is [50, 100] for Canada. The index for the
euro area starts at about 0, and, with little volatility, rises to about 8 by mid-2000, declines to about
-15 by late 2001, and then rises to about -8 by the end of the period. The index for the U.K. starts at
about 10, and, with some volatility, drops to about -28 by end-2001 and then rises to about 5 by the
end of the period. The index for Japan starts at -10, and, with little volatility, rises to about -8 by late
2000, falls to about -30 by late 2001, and then rises to about -15 by the end of the period. The index
for Canada starts at 100, and, with significant volatility, falls to about 56 by mid-2001 and then rises
strongly to about 88 by early 2002.
Bottom-left panel
Exports
Exports* for 2000 through mid-2002 for the euro area, Canada, the U.K., and Japan. The range of the
y-axis is [75, 115]; index, Jan. 2000 = 100, SA. All four indexes start at 100 at the beginning of the
period. The index for the euro area remains near 100 through late 2000, rises to about 107 by early
2001, declines quickly to about 100 and, with modest volatility, remains near 100 for the rest of the
period. The index for the U.K. remains near 100 through late 2000, rises to about 104 by early 2001,
declines to about 92 by early 2002, and rises to about 94 by the end of the period. The index for
Canada rises to about 110 by early 2001, declines to about 90 by late 2001, and then rises to nearly
95 by the end of the period. The index for Japan rises to about 103 by late 2000, drops to about 78 by
early 2002, and then rises to about 82 by the end of the period.
*Three-month moving average. Return to text
Bottom-right panel
Real GDP Growth
A table showing "Real GDP Growth, Percent, SAAR" for 2001:H2 (actual), 2002:H1 (forecast),
2002:H2 (forecast), and 2003 (forecast). Forecasts are the staff baseline forecast.
Percent, SAAR*
2001
H2
2002
H1
H2
2003
1. Industrial countries**
0.1
2.7
3.0
2.9
2. Euro Area
-0.4
1.2
2.8
2.7
3. Japan
-3.5
0.5
0.8
1.2
4. Canada
5. United Kingdom
1.2
0.8
4.7
1.9
3.6
3.3
3.5
2.9
*Years are Q4/Q4; half years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Return to table
**Calculations use U.S. total export weights. Return to table
Chart 13
Emerging Market Countries
(Weekly data)
Chart 13 is a three-by-two array of panels focusing on the contrasting experiences of the Asian and
Latin American emerging market countries. Down the left-hand side of the page are the panels for
Asia: a graph of nominal exchange rates, a graph of offshore-dollar bond spreads, and a table on real
GDP growth. Down the right-hand side of the page are the panels for Latin America: a graph of
nominal exchange rates, a graph of Brady bond spreads, and a table on real GDP growth.
Asia
Top-left panel
Nominal Exchange Rates
Nominal Exchange Rates, Foreign currency/U.S. dollar, for the Thai baht, the Korean won, and the
Taiwanese dollar for 2000 through mid-2002. The range of the y-axis is [90, 125]; index, Jan. 7,
2000 = 100. The indexes for all the currencies start at 100 at the beginning of 2000. The index for the
Thai baht rises to about 123 by mid-2001 and then declines to about 113 by mid-2002. The index for
the Korean won rises to about 120 by early 2001, immediately declines slightly, ranges from about
111-117 through early 2002, and then falls to about 107 by mid-2002. The index for the Taiwanese
dollar stays at around 100 for the most of 2000, rises to about 113 by mid-2001 and stays at about
that level through early 2002, and then declines to about 109 by the end of the period.
Middle-left panel
Offshore-Dollar Bond Spreads
Offshore-Dollar Bond Spreads for 2000 through mid-2002 for China, Korea, and Thailand. The
range of the y-axis is [0, 3]; unit is percentage points. The spreads for China start at about 1¼
percentage points, rise to about 1½ percentage points by late 2000, decline to about 1 percentage
point by early 2001, and then rise gradually to about 1¾ percentage points by mid-2002. The spreads
for Korea start at about 1½ percentage points, rise to about 2½ percentage points by late 2000,
decline to about 1⅓ percentage points by late 2001, and then rise gradually to about 1¾ percentage
points by mid-2002. The spreads for China and Korea are nearly the same from late 2001 through the
end of the period. The spreads for Thailand start at about 1½ percentage points and range from 1¼ to
1½ percentage points through early 2001, then drop to just below 1 percentage point, rise to over 2
percentage points by mid-2001, drop to about ¾ percentage point by late 2001, and then fluctuate
between about ⅔ percentage point and 1 percentage point through mid-2002, ending at about ⅔
percentage point.
Bottom-left panel
Real GDP Growth
A table showing "Real GDP Growth, Percent, SAAR" for 2001:H2 (actual), 2002:H1 (forecast),
2002:H2 (forecast), and 2003 (forecast). Forecasts are the staff baseline forecast.
Percent, SAAR*
2001
H2
2002
H1
H2
2003
1. Developing Asia**
3.1
5.7
5.2
5.6
of which:
2. China
7.1
7.8
7.2
7.5
3. Korea
5.8
6.9
5.5
6.0
4.
2.3
6.7
5.0
5.0
3.4
7.1
4.5
4.5
Taiwan
5. Thailand
*Years are Q4/Q4; half years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Return to table
**Calculations use U.S. total export weights. Return to table
Latin America
Top-right panel
Nominal Exchange Rates, Foreign currency/U.S. dollar, for the Argentine peso, the Brazilian real,
and the Mexican peso, from 2000 through mid-2002. The range of the y-axis is [50, 400]; index, Jan.
7, 2000 = 100. The indexes for all the currencies start at 100 at the beginning of 2000 and remain
close to 100 for all of 2000. The index for the Argentine peso remains flat at 100 until the beginning
of 2002, when the country ended its one-to-one peg to the U.S. dollar, at which point the currency
began rising sharply, reaching about 370 by mid-2002. The index for the Brazilian real rises to just
over 150 by late 2001, falls to about 130 by early 2002, and rises to just over 150 by the end of the
period. The index for Mexico remains around 100 for the entire period.
Middle-right panel
Brady Bond Spreads for 2000 through mid-2002 for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The range of the
y-axis is [0, 75]; unit is percentage points. The spreads for Argentina range from about 15-20
percentage points from the beginning of the period through late 2001, rise steeply to over 50
percentage points by end-2001, and then range from about 50 to about 70 percentage points, ending
at about 60 percentage points at the end of the period. The spreads for Brazil range from about 10-15
percentage points for most of the period, with a slight increase to about 17 percentage points at the
end of the period. The spreads for Mexico start at about 5 percentage points and trend slightly
downward to about 3 percentage points by the end of the period.
Bottom-right panel
Real GDP Growth
A table showing "Real GDP Growth, Percent, SAAR" for 2001:H2 (actual), 2002:H1 (forecast),
2002:H2 (forecast), and 2003 (forecast). Forecasts are the staff baseline forecast.
Percent, SAAR*
2001
H2
1. Latin America**
2002
H1
H2
2003
-1.8
1.4
3.2
3.6
2. Mexico
-1.6
2.2
4.1
4.3
3. Brazil
4. Argentina
-0.7
-17.5
3.7
-8.5
0.7
-5.0
2.1
-0.3
of which:
*Years are Q4/Q4; half years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Return to table
**Calculations use U.S. total export weights. Return to table
Chart 14
External Outlook
Chart 14 shows five panels, including a table on recent developments in exports and imports, a graph
on the real exchange rate outlook, tables on real export growth and real import growth, and a graph
on the contribution of exports and imports to U.S. GDP growth.
Top-left panel
Recent Developments: Exports and Imports
The table "Recent Developments: Exports and Imports, Billions of dollars, SAAR" reports trade data
for April that were released after the Greenbook forecast was completed.
Billions of dollars, SAAR
2002:
Q1
April
2002:
Q1
1. Goods Exports
April
659
683
2. Capital goods
284
290
3. Services
276
279
4. Total Goods and Services
5. Goods Imports
934
1084
961
1162
77
111
7. Capital goods
277
285
8. Services
230
231
9. Total Goods and Services
10. Balance
1314
-379
1393
-431
of which:
of which:
6.
Oil
Top-right panel
Real Exchange Rate Outlook
Real Exchange Rate Outlook* for 2000 through mid-2002 (actual), along with the January
Greenbook forecast for early 2002 through 2003 and the June Greenbook forecast from mid-2002
through 2003. The range of the y-axis is [95, 125]; index, 2000:Q1 = 100. The actual real exchange
rate starts at 100 at the beginning of the period, rises to about 116 by early 2002, and then declines to
about 112 by mid-2002. The January Greenbook forecast starts at about 116 in early 2002 and stays
roughly flat for the rest of the period. The June Greenbook forecast declines from about 112 in
mid-2002 to about 106 by the end of 2003.
*Import/export weighted average of major foreign currencies. Return to table
Middle-left panel
Real Export Growth
Percent, Q4/Q4
2000
2001
2002
2003
Growth of real exports
1. G & S
7.0
-10.9
6.0
8.4
Percentage point contribution
2. Services
1.2
-2.0
2.4
1.9
3. Goods
of which:
4. Core*
5.8
-8.8
3.6
6.5
3.5
-5.8
2.4
3.8
*Excludes computers and semiconductors. Return to table
Middle-right panel
Real Import Growth
Percent, Q4/Q4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2000
2001
2002
2003
Growth of real imports
1. G & S
11.3
-8.5
9.4
9.2
Percentage point contribution
2. Services
1.9
-2.4
1.2
0.6
3. Goods
of which:
4. Core*
9.5
-6.4
8.1
8.4
7.1
-3.9
5.8
5.8
*Excludes computers, semiconductors, and oil. Return to table
Bottom panel
Contribution to U.S. GDP Growth
Contribution to U.S. GDP Growth* by exports and imports as a bar chart for 1999 (actual), 2000
(actual), 2001 (actual), 2002 (projected), and 2003 (projected) on a semi-annual basis. The range of
the y-axis is
[-3, 3]; unit is percentage points, AR. Approximate values for the ten half-year periods are as
follows.
Percentage points, AR
1999
H1
2000
H2
H1
2001
H2
H1
2002
H2
H1
2003
H2
H1
H2
Exports (red)
-0.2
1.0
1.2
0.25
-0.75
-1.6
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.9
Imports (blue)
-1.25
-1.5
-2.25
-0.75
1.0
1.4
-1.6
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
*Half years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Return to text
Chart 15
External Sector
Chart 15 is a three-by-two array of panels, including a chart on the U.S. current account, a table on
U.S. capital flows, and graphs giving simulation results exploring the consequences of a substantial
dollar depreciation on real GDP for the euro area, Japan, Canada and Mexico, and developing Asia.
Top-left panel
Current Account
Current Account in terms of percent of GDP and in terms of level (billions of dollars) for 1990
through early 2002 (actual) and for early 2002 through 2003 (forecast). The range of the left y-axis,
measured in terms of percent of GDP, is [-7, 1]. The range of the right y-axis, measured in terms of
level or billions of dollars, is [-700, 100]. The two series track closely for the entire period. The
current account in terms of level starts at a deficit of about $100 billion, rises to a surplus of nearly
$50 billion at the end of 1990, immediately drops back into deficit, which continues to widen to
about $500 billion by early 2002. The forecast shows the deficit widening further, to about $600
billion by end-2003. The current account in terms of percent of GDP starts at a deficit of about 1½
percent of GDP, rises to a surplus of nearly 1 percent of GDP at the end of 1990, immediately drops
back into deficit, which continues to widen to a deficit of about 4½ percent of GDP by early 2002.
The forecast shows the deficit widening further, to around 5 percent of GDP by end-2003.
Top-right panel
Capital Flows
Billions of dollars, SAAR
2001
H1
2002
H2
Q1
1. Official capital, net
-37
37
39
2. Private capital, net
414
350
359
3. For. purch. of U.S. sec.
4.
of which stocks
448
148
352
91
259
100
5. U.S. purch. of for. sec.
-157
-32
8
6.
-155
-59
6
189
72
103
8. U.S. D.I. abroad
-177
-138
-90
9. Statistical discrepancy
37
-15
51
of which:
7.
of which stocks
For. D.I. in U.S.
Middle/bottom panel
Real GDP; Simulation Results
The bottom four panels use the staff model to explore the consequences of a substantial dollar
depreciation on real GDP for the euro area, Japan, Canada and Mexico, and developing Asia. The
black lines in each of the boxes show the Greenbook baseline forecast for real GDP for each of the
four regions. The red lines are the alternative presented in the Greenbook for the negative shock to
the dollar of 20 percent against most currencies, but only 10 percent against the Canadian dollar and
Mexican peso. The blue lines are a second alternative scenario for a shock that is more concentrated
toward the euro (about a 35 percent decline in the dollar in terms of the euro and the pound) and
away from the yen and the currencies of developing Asia; the Canadian and Mexican currencies are
left to be as near the Greenbook baseline in this second alternative as they were in the Greenbook
alternative.
Middle-left panel
Simulation results for real GDP for the Euro Area for the Greenbook baseline (black line), the
Greenbook alternative (red line), and the large euro shock (blue line) simulations for 2002:Q2
through 2003. The range of the y-axis is [100, 112]; index, 2002:Q2 = 100. All simulations start at
100 at the beginning of the period and rise, tracking closely, to just over 102 by mid-2003. In
mid-2003, the simulation results diverge, with the Greenbook baseline simulation rising to just over
104, the Greenbook alternative simulation rising to just under 104, and the large euro shock
simulation falling to just under 102 by end-2003.
Middle-right panel
Simulation results for real GDP for Japan for the Greenbook baseline (black line), the Greenbook
alternative (red line), and the large euro shock (blue line) simulations for 2002:Q2 through 2003. The
range of the y-axis is [100, 112]; index, 2002:Q2 = 100. All simulations start at 100 at the beginning
of the period. The Greenbook baseline simulation rises to just under 102, the Greenbook alternative
simulation rises to about 101, and the large euro shock simulation rises to just over 102 by end-2003.
Bottom-left panel
Simulation results for real GDP for Canada and Mexico for the Greenbook baseline (black line), the
Greenbook alternative (red line), and the large euro shock (blue line) simulations for 2002:Q2
through 2003. The range of the y-axis is [100, 112]; index, 2002:Q2 = 100. All simulations start at
100 at the beginning of the period and rise, tracking nearly identically, to about 106 by end-2003.
Bottom-right panel
Simulation results for real GDP for Developing Asia for the Greenbook baseline (black line), the
Greenbook alternative (red line), and the large euro shock (blue line) simulations for 2002:Q2
through 2003. The range of the y-axis is [100, 112]; index, 2002:Q2 = 100. All simulations start at
100 at the beginning of the period. The Greenbook baseline and Greenbook alternative simulations,
tracking nearly identically, rise to about 103 by early 2003. In early 2003, the two simulation results
diverge, with the Greenbook baseline simulation rising to just over 108, and the Greenbook
alternative simulation rising to about 106 by end-2003. The large euro shock simulation tracks with
the other two simulations for only one quarter, rising to about 101 by 2002:Q3; the euro shock
simulation then diverges from the other two simulations and rises to nearly 111 by end-2003.
Chart 16
Top panel
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2002
FOMC
Staff
Central
Tendency
Range
Percentage change, Q4 to Q4
Nominal GDP
February 2002
4½ to 5½
(3½ to 5½)
4¾ to 5¼
(4 to 4½)
4.7
(4.3)
Real GDP
3 to 4
3½ to 3¾
3.5
(2 to 3½)
(2½ to 3)
(2.7)
1¼ to 2
1½ to 1¾
1.5
(1 to 2)
(About 1½)
(1.3)
5¾ to 6
5.9
(6 to 6¼)
(6)
February 2002
PCE Prices
February 2002
Average level, Q4, percent
Unemployment rate
5½ to 6¼
February 2002
(5¾ to 6½)
Central tendencies calculated by dropping high and low three from ranges.
Bottom panel
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2003
FOMC
Percentage change, Q4 to Q4
Nominal GDP
4½ to 6
Staff
Central
Tendency
Range
5 to 5¾
5.6
FOMC
Staff
Central
Tendency
Range
Real GDP
3¼ to 4¼
3½ to 4
4.1
PCE Prices
1 to 2¼
1½ to 1¾
1.4
5 to 6
5¼ to 5½
5.5
Average level, Q4, percent
Unemployment rate
Return to top
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