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Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Confidential (FR) Class III FOMC June 21, 2002 CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Supplemental Notes Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Contents The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Federal Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Labor Market Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Tables Federal Government Outlays and Receipts . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Unemployment Insurance Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Chart Unemployment Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 The Domestic Financial Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Tables Selected Financial Market Quotations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Commercial Bank Credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 The International Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Trade in Goods and Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 U.S. Current Account Through 2002:Q1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 U.S. International Financial Transactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Tables Net Trade in Goods and Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services . . . . . . 10 U.S. Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Summary of U.S. International Transactions . . . . . . . . . . 13 Chart U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services . . . . . . . . 9 Supplemental Notes The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy Federal Government The Monthly Treasury Statement reports that the federal government recorded an $81 billion deficit in May. Adjusted for payment timing shifts, deposit insurance, spectrum auction proceeds, and sales of major assets, the deficit in May was $70 billion, $42 billion larger than the level recorded last year. Lower receipts and higher outlays each accounted for about half of the deficit increase. Receipts in May were 18 percent lower than the level recorded last year. Much of the decline occurred in nonwithheld individual income and self-employment taxes (mostly final payments on 2001 tax liability), which were about 65 percent lower than last year, and income tax refunds (also on 2001 tax liability), which were about 34 percent higher. Withheld and FICA taxes were just slightly below last year’s level. Outlays in May were 12 percent higher than last year. Defense spending continued to increase rapidly, up almost 19 percent over last May. Spending on income security in May was substantially above last year’s level, reflecting higher unemployment insurance outlays and an increase in child tax credits (which are claimed on year-end tax returns and are deemed outlays to the extent they bring a taxpayer’s liability below zero). Net interest payments continue to fall. Labor Market Developments Initial claims for unemployment insurance under state programs inched down 2,000 to 393,000 for the week ended June 15, and the four-week moving average of initial claims moved down 7,000 to 395,000. This is the first time the four-week moving average has fallen below 400,000 since March. The effect of the federal temporary extended unemployment compensation program (TEUC) on initial claims continues to wane, as fewer individuals file state claims to establish eligibility for the program. The number of individuals receiving federal TEUC benefits stood at 1.45 million in the week ended June 1, while an additional 2,200 individuals received other extended benefits that week.1 1. The number of reported TEUC recipients rose for the week ended June 1, likely reflecting a data quirk rather than a true decline in the number of individuals receiving TEUC benefits. Individuals are required to file a TEUC claim once every two weeks. Some states (notably California) report TEUC benefits paid as twice the claims filed in a given week rather than the sum of claims filed in two consecutive weeks. As a result, the TEUC series exhibits negative serial correlation and will tend to increase in the week following a decline. In this instance, the number of TEUC recipients during the week ended June 1 was up slightly, on net, from its level two weeks earlier. -2Federal Government Outlays and Receipts (Unified basis; billions of dollars) May 12 months ending in May. 2001 2002 Percent change 2001 2002 Percent change Outlays Deposit insurance Spectrum auctions Sale of major assets Other 153.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 154.0 183.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0 183.7 19.3 ... ... ... 19.3 1,832.3 -1.8 -1.2 0.0 1,835.3 1,987.9 -0.1 0.0 0.0 1,988.0 8.5 ... ... ... 8.3 Receipts 125.6 102.5 -18.4 2,085.7 1,830.8 -12.2 Function or source Surplus -27.9 -80.6 ... 253.4 -157.2 -162.0 ______________________________________________________ Outlays excluding deposit insurance, spectrum auction, and sale of major assets are adjusted for payment timing shifts1 ______________________________________________________ Outlays National defense Net interest Social security Medicare Medicaid Other health Income security Agriculture Other 154.0 26.0 18.4 36.3 19.6 10.5 4.5 22.0 0.7 16.1 172.6 30.9 15.7 37.9 20.3 12.6 4.0 28.1 0.5 22.5 12.1 18.9 -14.5 4.4 3.8 20.1 -10.9 27.7 -27.0 40.4 1,835.1 300.7 214.1 425.6 207.3 126.1 40.4 257.4 32.6 231.0 1,974.3 333.1 180.1 448.9 225.5 142.0 46.8 296.1 28.8 272.9 7.6 10.8 -15.9 5.5 8.8 12.6 15.8 15.0 -11.6 18.1 Receipts Individual income and payroll taxes Withheld + FICA Nonwithheld + SECA Refunds (-) Corporate Gross Refunds (-) Other 125.6 102.5 -18.4 2,085.7 1,830.8 -12.2 99.6 114.3 14.5 29.2 4.5 6.5 2.0 21.6 79.7 113.8 5.2 39.2 1.2 5.3 4.1 21.6 -20.0 -0.5 -64.3 34.3 -72.0 -17.3 104.5 -0.1 1,691.6 1,414.0 422.5 144.8 201.5 237.2 35.8 192.6 1,513.8 1,386.5 340.3 212.9 132.7 187.4 54.7 184.3 -10.5 -1.9 -19.5 47.0 -34.1 -21.0 52.9 -4.3 Surplus -28.4 -70.1 ... 250.6 -143.6 -157.3 Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. A shift in payment timing occurs when the first of the month falls on a weekend or holiday, or when the first three days of a month are nonworking days. Outlays for defense, social security, Medicare, income security, and "other" have been adjusted to account for these shifts. ... Not applicable. -3- The level of insured unemployment for the week ended June 8 rose 23,000 to 3.78 million, and the previous week’s level was revised down 20,000 to 3.75 million. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 2.9 percent in the week ended June 8. The level of insured unemployment likely continues to be boosted by the TEUC program, as individuals nearing the exhaustion of their state benefits, but assured of additional benefits through TEUC, may have searched less intensively for jobs and thus remained on state benefit rolls longer than they otherwise would have. Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Historical data on orders and shipments of capital goods were revised yesterday for the period January 1992 through April 2002. The revisions mainly reflect the benchmarking to the 2000 Annual Survey of Manufactures. The revisions after 2000 incorporate late filers and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Census has not yet released all of the detailed data. The nominal value of shipments of nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, were revised down by about $2.3 billion on average from 2000 on. By far the largest single change was to computers and peripheral equipment, which was revised down by roughly $1.8 billion. Instead of increasing on balance during 2000, computer shipments now show a steady decline; the growth rates of computer shipments after 2000 were little affected by the revision. Shipments of communications equipment were revised up by $0.3 billion on average since the beginning of 2000. Outside of the high-tech sector, shipments were revised down $0.9 billion, reflecting widespread and generally small changes. The nominal value of orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, were revised down by about $2.5 billion on average from 2000 on. Bookings for communications equipment were revised up slightly; new orders for computers were revised down in line with the revision to shipments, as were bookings outside of the high-tech categories. The BEA intends to incorporate the revised data on shipments in next week’s final release on first-quarter GDP. At the time of the annual revision in late July, the BEA will incorporate into the official NIPA figures the revisions to earlier quarters. Based on our preliminary assessment of the data we have in hand, we do not yet have reason to believe that the BEA will substantially revise E&S in the final GDP release for the first quarter. The benchmark revision also contained information about the book value of manufacturers’ inventories. Stocks held by manufacturers were revised up from the start of 2000. Taken together with the downward revision to shipments, the inventory-shipments ratio now peaks at a higher level in 2001. The revised stock-to-shipments ratio declines rapidly from the middle of last year to about the same level that prevailed at the beginning of 2000. -4Unemployment Insurance Programs (In Thousands) 2002 May. 4 May. 11 May. 18 May 25 Jun 1 Jun 8 Initial Claims All regular programs2 State programs 419 417 428 425 424 422 416 414 386 383 398 396 395 393 Insured unemployment All regular programs3 State programs Extended benefits4 3865 3833 1421 3863 3832 1221 State-insured Unemployment rate5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 Initial Claims (Four-week moving avg.) All regular programs2 State programs 432 430 425 423 424 422 422 420 413 411 406 399 404 396 363 3511 359 3513 349 3392 347 3343 309 3376 378 351 3405 NA Item Jun 15 Seasonally adjusted; BLS basis1 3824 3820 3794 3791 1438 1244 3783 3806 3752 3775 1456 NA NA NA NA NA Not seasonally adjusted Regular state programs Initial claims Insured unemployment 1. Only data for regular state programs are seasonally adjusted. 2. Includes federal employees and ex-servicemen. 3. Includes federal employees, railroad workers, and ex-servicemen. 4. Beginning March 16,2002, includes state and federal emergency extended benefits. 5. Percent of covered employees receiving regular state benefits. -5- Unemployment Insurance (Weekly data; seasonally adjusted, BLS basis) Initial Claims Thousands 600 550 500 450 June 15 393 400 350 300 State programs Incl. EUC Adjustments<1> 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Insured Unemployment 250 Millions 4.4 4.2 4.0 June 8 3.77 Incl. EUC Adjustment<2> 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 State Programs 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 <1> Beginning July 18, 1992, includes initial claims filed under the emergency unemployment benefits program by individuals also eligible to file under regular programs. The EUC program ended on April 30, 1994. <2> Includes staff estimate of emergency benefits recipients who are also eligible to file under regular programs. 1.8 -6- III-T-1 Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) 2000 2001 2002 2002 Instrument Change to June 20 from selected dates (percentage points) June 26 Sept. 10 May 6 June 20 2000 June 26 2001 Sept. 10 2002 May 6 Short-term FOMC intended federal funds rate 6.50 3.50 1.75 1.75 -4.75 -1.75 .00 Treasury bills 1 3-month 6-month 5.66 5.94 3.19 3.13 1.75 1.86 1.70 1.77 -3.96 -4.17 -1.49 -1.36 -.05 -.09 Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates) 1-month 3-month 6.56 6.56 3.42 3.24 1.73 1.77 1.74 1.73 -4.82 -4.83 -1.68 -1.51 .01 -.04 Large negotiable CDs 1 1-month 3-month 6-month 6.64 6.73 6.89 3.46 3.26 3.24 1.79 1.81 1.97 1.80 1.81 1.88 -4.84 -4.92 -5.01 -1.66 -1.45 -1.36 .01 .00 -.09 Eurodollar deposits 2 1-month 3-month 6.63 6.69 3.41 3.26 1.78 1.82 1.77 1.79 -4.86 -4.90 -1.64 -1.47 -.01 -.03 Bank prime rate 9.50 6.50 4.75 4.75 -4.75 -1.75 .00 Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury3 2-year 10-year 30-year 6.54 6.35 6.22 3.59 5.14 5.55 3.18 5.34 5.72 2.91 5.09 5.66 -3.63 -1.26 -.56 -.68 -.05 .11 -.27 -.25 -.06 U.S. Treasury 10-year indexed note 4.09 3.26 3.08 3.06 -1.03 -.20 -.02 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) 4 5.99 5.25 5.52 5.42 -.57 .17 -.10 7.38 7.15 7.64 8.40 12.30 5.62 5.64 6.30 7.11 12.72 5.64 5.66 6.41 7.51 11.51 5.25 5.34 6.10 7.18 12.16 -2.13 -1.81 -1.54 -1.22 -.14 -.37 -.30 -.20 .07 -.56 -.39 -.32 -.31 -.33 .65 8.14 7.22 6.89 5.64 6.78 4.75 6.71 4.67 -1.43 -2.55 -.18 -.97 -.07 -.08 Private instruments 10-year swap 10-year FNMA 10-year AA 5 10-year BBB 5 High yield 6 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) 7 30-year fixed 1-year adjustable Record high 2001 Change to June 20 from selected dates (percent) 2002 Stock exchange index Dow-Jones Industrial S&P 500 Composite Nasdaq (OTC) Russell 2000 Wilshire 5000 Level Date Sept. 10 May 6 June 20 Record high 2001 Sept. 10 2002 May 6 11,723 1,527 5,049 606 14,752 1-14-00 3-24-00 3-10-00 3-9-00 3-24-00 9,606 1,093 1,695 441 10,104 9,808 1,053 1,578 503 10,016 9,432 1,006 1,465 460 9,531 -19.54 -34.12 -70.99 -24.07 -35.39 -1.81 -7.89 -13.60 4.43 -5.67 -3.84 -4.41 -7.21 -8.48 -4.84 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Secondary market. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Most recent Thursday quote. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. The 10-year BBB index fell 8 basis points on May 31 owing to a rebalancing of bonds in the index. 6. Merrill Lynch Master II high-yield bond. Index rose 15 basis points on May 31 owing to a rebalancing of bonds in the index. 7. For week ending Friday previous to date shown. _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: June 26, 2000, is the day before the FOMC meeting that ended the most recent period of policy tightening. September 10, 2001, is the day before the terrorist attacks. May 6, 2002, is the day before the most recent FOMC meeting. _______________________________________________________________________ BA:DAM -7Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted) Type of credit Total 1. Adjusted1 2. Reported 3. 4. 5. 6. Securities Adjusted1 Reported Treasury & Agency Other2 Loans3 7. Total 8. Business 9. Real estate 10. Home equity 11. Other 12. 13. 14. Consumer Adjusted4 Other5 Level, May 2002 ($ billions) 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Mar. 2002 Apr. 2002 May 2002 4.2 5.0 4.3 5.1 1.6 -.9 2.2 -1.0 5.4 4.9 9.6 12.9 5,372 5,511 9.2 12.2 3.3 25.3 14.9 16.8 27.4 4.5 9.5 -.6 1.7 -3.4 11.6 -1.0 24.3 -31.6 20.1 17.0 32.7 -2.9 16.2 27.6 31.4 22.5 1,394 1,532 870 662 2.6 -3.6 7.2 20.0 6.1 .9 -8.8 12.1 35.2 10.1 -1.1 -5.2 3.5 25.8 1.4 -1.0 -3.6 -.1 39.9 -4.1 .4 -15.4 1.7 30.7 -1.3 7.3 -2.1 12.8 49.4 9.0 3,978 1,016 1,812 179 1,633 3.9 7.4 -.1 2.1 5.6 -15.0 3.5 3.9 -11.8 -4.9 -1.6 4.6 9.0 2.8 16.1 6.2 11.8 8.3 566 917 585 Note. All data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. Monthly levels are pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Quarterly levels (not shown) are simple averages of monthly levels. Annual levels (not shown) are levels for the fourth quarter. Growth rates are percentage changes in consecutive levels, annualized but not compounded. The conversion from a thrift to a commercial bank charter added approximately $37 billion to the assets and liabilities of domestically chartered commercial banks in the week ending May 8, 2002. 1. Adjusted to remove effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FIN 115). 2. Includes private mortgage-backed securities, securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or Agency securities, including revaluation gains on derivative contracts. 3. Excludes interbank loans. 4. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. 5. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. -8- The International Economy Trade in Goods and Services The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services was reported to be $35.9 billion in April, about $3-1/2 billion larger than the March deficit, which was about $1 billion wider than previously reported. For the first quarter on average, the trade deficit was $379 billion at an annual rate, $13 billion larger than previously reported, and $27 billion larger than the revised fourth-quarter deficit. For last year as a whole, the deficit is now reported to have been $358 billion, about $20 billion larger than the earlier estimate. The value of exported goods and services rose about 2 percent in April. All of the increase was in goods, as services fell slightly. Increases were widespread among categories of goods, including significant gains in industrial supplies, capital goods, consumer goods, and autos. The April level of total exports of goods and services was nearly 3 percent (quarterly rate) above the first-quarter average level. Imports of goods and services rose 4-1/2 percent in April. The value of oil imports rose sharply, reflecting an increase in the price, while non-oil imports were up 3-1/2 percent. All of the increase was in goods, while service imports were down slightly. Increases were broadly-based across categories of goods, with the exception of aircraft. Imports of consumer goods, autos, and industrial supplies were each up about 5 percent, and imports of capital goods excluding aircraft rose nearly 3 percent. The April level of total imports of goods and services was 6 percent (quarterly rate) above the first-quarter level. -9- - 10 - - 11 - U.S. Current Account through 2002:Q1 In 2002:Q1, the U.S. current account deficit edged up to almost $450 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (s.a.a.r.). The $69.6 billion larger deficit reflected increases in the deficits on goods and services, other income and transfers, and a shift in the balance on investment income from a surplus to a deficit. The Commerce Department’s estimates of the international transactions accounts have been revised to reflect improved estimating methods and the incorporation of new data, including results from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Benchmark Survey of Foreign Portfolio Investment in the United States as of March 31, 2000. For the first quarter, the deficit on goods increased $23 billion s.a.a.r. as the recovery in the United States took hold, increasing U.S. imports of goods, whereas goods exports declined $10.8 billion s.a.a.r. across a range of categories. The surplus on services decreased $4.3 billion s.a.a.r in the first quarter, as an increase in the surplus on travel was more than offset by a decrease in the surplus on other private services. The balance on investment income decreased $33 billion s.a.a.r., moving from a surplus in the fourth quarter of last year to a deficit in the first quarter of 2002. The movement of the balance to a deficit was largely attributable to increased direct investment income payments. The deficit on other income and transfers increased $9.3 billion s.a.a.r. U.S. Current Account (Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate) Other Goods and Investment Current Period income and services, account income, transfers, net balance net net Annual 2000 -378.7 27.7 -59.3 -410.3 2001 -358.3 20.5 -55.6 -393.4 Quarterly 2001:Q2 Q3 Q4 2002:Q1 Change Q2-Q1 Q3-Q1 Q4-Q3 Q1-Q4 -373.3 -319.1 -352.1 -379.4 30.1 9.4 32.4 -0.6 -53.7 -55.6 -60.6 -69.9 -396.9 -365.3 -380.3 -449.9 15.3 54.2 -33.0 -27.3 19.9 -20.7 23.0 -33.0 -1.2 -1.8 -5.0 -9.3 34.0 31.6 -15.0 -69.6 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. - 12 - The June 20 release includes revisions to quarterly data from 1995:Q1 through 2001:Q4. The revisions decreased the size of the current account deficit each quarter. The largest yearly revisions were to 1999, 2000, and 2001, with the 1999 and 2000 revisions decreasing the deficits by more than $30 billion each year, and the revision to 2001 reducing the current account deficit by about $24 billion. These revisions primarily reflect a reduction in estimated interest payments to foreigners based on the new portfolio benchmark survey. U.S. International Financial Transactions Portfolio capital inflows were revised substantially to incorporate information from the new benchmark survey. The magnitude of the revisions, in particular to foreign purchases of U.S. debt securities (lines 4a-c of the Summary of U.S. International Transactions Table), was unprecedented. The benchmark survey produced amounts for foreign holdings of U.S. debt securities—Treasuries, agencies, and corporates—that were much smaller than accumulated capital flows would suggest. In light of this, BEA revised downward inflows into U.S. debt securities from 1995:Q1 to 2000:Q1 to make accumulated capital flows consistent with the benchmark survey amounts (and extrapolated these adjustments forward). In 2001, debt inflows were reduced from $386 billion to $280 billion. Debt inflows for the first quarter of this year are now estimated to have totaled $40 billion, which is the $70 billion reported through the TIC system minus $30 billion in BEA adjustments. The Summary Table now incorporates these adjustments. (BEA did not substantially revise inflows into U.S. equities, as the benchmark survey amount for foreign holdings of U.S. equities was in line with the TIC data.) The lower recorded capital inflows from 1995 forward resulted in lower income payments and therefore lower current account deficits. There was, however, a larger effect on the statistical discrepancy (last line). Prior to the revisions, the cumulated discrepancy over the 1995-2000 period totaled negative $203 billion, implying overrecorded capital inflows. With the revised data, the cumulated discrepancy totaled positive $89 billion. The statistical discrepancy was positive $13 billion in the first quarter, compared to negative $56 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. Direct investment inflows (line 7) in the first quarter totaled $26 billion, slightly stronger than the tepid inflows of the second half of last year. Direct investment outflows (line 6) totaled $23 billion in the first quarter, owing almost entirely to reinvested earnings. Both outward and inward direct investment flows reflected the relatively low level of merger activity in the quarter. Revisions to direct investment inflows and outflows in 2000 and 2001 were large but offsetting. Net shipments of U.S. currency to foreigners (line 8) fell somewhat in the first quarter and the capital account balance was unchanged. - 13 - Summary of U.S. International Transactions (Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted except as noted) 2000 Official financial flows 1. Change in foreign official assets in the U.S. (increase, +) a. G-10 countries b. OPEC countries c. All other countries 2. Change in U.S. official reserve assets (decrease, +) Private financial flows Banks 3. Change in net foreign positions of banking offices in the U.S.1 Securities2 4. Foreign net purchases of U.S. securities (+) a. Treasury securities b. Agency bonds c. Corporate and municipal bonds d. Corporate stocks3 5. U.S. net acquisitions (-) of foreign securities a. Bonds b. Stock purchases c. Stock swaps3 Other flows (quarterly data, s.a.) 6. U.S. direct investment (-) abroad 7. Foreign direct investment in U.S. 8. Foreign holdings of U.S. currency 9. Other (inflow, + )4 U.S. current account balance (s.a.) 2001 2001 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 Q1 Mar. Apr. 39.3 2.0 -21.3 13.4 5.4 10.2 -1.0 4.7 39.6 12.3 10.7 16.6 6.9 -7.9 -1.9 16.8 -20.0 -6.1 -2.1 -11.8 16.9 -5.6 -4.8 27.3 5.6 9.2 4.2 -7.8 9.8 5.7 -6.4 10.5 -1.1 .4 -.9 -.7 3.6 -7.8 .4 11.0 -.3 370.3 -4.9 379.8 -1.3 122.9 -3.6 29.5 -.2 145.3 .4 89.2 .1 ... 1.1 ... -6.7 -19.0 23.7 -3.0 34.8 23.2 8.6 -12.3 381.4 -76.6 96.5 167.4 194.0 401.2 -6.9 86.1 200.4 121.6 98.5 -14.5 13.8 64.7 34.5 50.0 -15.3 19.4 33.0 12.9 126.5 27.4 27.7 37.9 33.5 63.1 -5.1 2.7 42.1 23.4 53.0 11.2 9.5 23.0 9.3 28.4 -13.4 18.3 15.1 8.3 -127.9 -18.3 -25.7 -84.0 -89.7 16.2 -62.7 -43.2 -50.8 5.2 -21.9 -34.2 13.7 22.9 -9.3 .0 -25.3 -6.5 -12.4 -6.4 2.2 0.5 3.5 -1.8 10.7 6.1 4.5 .0 -5.0 -.6 -4.5 .0 -178.3 -127.8 307.7 130.8 1.1 23.8 -7.0 60.6 -410.3 -393.4 -35.1 51.1 2.8 32.8 -99.2 -41.7 14.2 8.2 -11.9 -91.3 -27.5 -22.5 21.9 25.7 10.5 4.5 4.3 -13.0 -95.1 -112.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Capital account balance (s.a.)5 .8 .8 .2 .2 .2 .2 ... ... Statistical discrepancy (s.a.) .0 10.7 -2.5 48.3 -55.8 12.9 ... ... NOTE: The sum of official and private financial flows, the current account balance, the capital account balance, and the statistical discrepancy is zero. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Changes in dollar-denominated positions of all depository institutions and bank holding companies plus certain transactions between broker-dealers and unaffiliated foreigners (particularly borrowing and lending under repurchase agreements). Includes changes in custody liabilities other than U.S. Treasury bills. 2. Includes adjustments BEA makes to account for incomplete coverage, but excludes adjustments for commissions and therefore does not match exactly the data on U.S. international transactions published by the Department of Commerce. 3. Includes (4d) or represents (5c) stocks acquired through mergers. 4. Transactions by nonbanking concerns and other banking and official transactions not shown elsewhere plus amounts resulting from adjustments made by the Department of Commerce and revisions in lines 1 through 5 since publication of the quarterly data in the Survey of Current Business. 5. Consists of transactions in nonproduced nonfinancial assets and capital transfers. n.a. Not available. ... Not applicable.
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